Tillys Inc (TLYS) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Greetings. Welcome to the Tilly's, Inc. Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) And please note that this conference is being recorded.

問候。歡迎來到 Tilly's, Inc. 2022 年第二季度收益結果電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，本次會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Gar Jackson with Investor Relations. Thank you, sir. You may begin.

我現在想把會議交給投資者關係部的 Gar Jackson。謝謝你，先生。你可以開始了。

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Tilly's Fiscal 2022 Second Quarter Earnings Call. Ed Thomas, President and CEO; and Michael Henry, CFO, will discuss the company's results and then host the Q&A session. For a copy of Tilly's earnings press release, please visit the Investor Relations section of the company's website at tillys.com. From the same section, shortly after the conclusion of the call, you will also be able to find a recorded replay of this call for the next 30 days.

下午好，歡迎參加 Tilly 的 2022 財年第二季度財報電話會議。埃德·托馬斯，總裁兼首席執行官；首席財務官 Michael Henry 將討論公司的業績，然後主持問答環節。如需 Tilly 收益新聞稿的副本，請訪問公司網站tillys.com 的投資者關係部分。在同一部分，通話結束後不久，您還可以在接下來的 30 天內找到此通話的錄音重播。

Certain forward-looking statements will be made during this call that reflect Tilly's judgment and analysis only as of today, September 1, 2022, and actual results may differ materially from current expectations based on various factors affecting Tilly's business. Accordingly, you should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. For a more thorough discussion of the risks and uncertainties associated with any forward-looking statements, please see the disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements that is included in our fiscal 2022 second quarter earnings release, which is furnished to the SEC today on Form 8-K as well as our other filings with the SEC referenced in that disclaimer.

本次電話會議期間將做出某些前瞻性陳述，僅反映 Tilly 截至今天 2022 年 9 月 1 日的判斷和分析，實際結果可能與基於影響 Tilly 業務的各種因素的當前預期存在重大差異。因此，您不應過分依賴這些前瞻性陳述。有關與任何前瞻性陳述相關的風險和不確定性的更全面討論，請參閱我們的 2022 財年第二季度收益發布中包含的有關前瞻性陳述的免責聲明，該聲明今天以表格 8 形式提交給 SEC- K 以及該免責聲明中提到的我們向 SEC 提交的其他文件。

Today's call will be limited to 1 hour and will include a Q&A session after our prepared remarks. I will now turn the call over to Ed.

今天的電話將限制在 1 小時內，在我們準備好的發言之後將包括問答環節。我現在將把電話轉給 Ed。

Thanks, Gar. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. As our customers continue to face the highest inflationary environment, over the past 40 years, our second quarter results fell just short of our estimated outlook ranges for both net sales and earnings per share. Our comp sales performance, which began with a minus 17% comp in May, declined further throughout June before starting to moderate to less negative comps in the final 2 weeks of the quarter, once the early stages of back-to-school season began.

謝謝，加爾。大家下午好，感謝您今天加入我們。由於我們的客戶在過去 40 年中繼續面臨最高的通脹環境，我們的第二季度業績略低於我們對淨銷售額和每股收益的預期前景範圍。我們的銷售業績從 5 月份的負 17% 開始，在整個 6 月進一步下降，然後在開學季的早期階段開始後，在本季度的最後 2 週開始放緩至較小的負銷售業績。

All geographic markets comped double-digit negative for the quarter. All merchandise departments comped double-digit negative, except for footwear, which decreased by a high single-digit percentage. Swim was particularly weak for us across departments and geographies. Customer store traffic and conversion, both declined by high single-digit percentages compared to last year. We believe seeing both traffic and conversion decline to this extent at the same time as indicative of the impact of inflation on our customers, particularly as we lap last year's record-setting results that were fueled by stimulus payments and other pandemic-related factors.

本季度所有地域市場均出現兩位數的負數。除鞋類外，所有商品部門均出現兩位數的負數，其下降了高個位數百分比。跨部門和跨地區的游泳對我們來說尤其薄弱。與去年相比，客戶商店流量和轉化率均下降了高個位數百分比。我們認為，流量和轉化率都下降到這種程度，同時表明通貨膨脹對我們客戶的影響，特別是在我們超越去年因刺激支付和其他大流行相關因素推動的創紀錄業績時。

Supply chain issues have been getting somewhat better but continue to cause disruptions to typical product flows, most significantly in footwear and branded women's and children's apparel. We believe that we have managed through these challenges fairly well under the circumstances. Despite the challenges of the current environment, we continue working towards improving our business and generating long-term growth. Our sustainable product offerings continue to grow and represented 7% of our total net sales for the second quarter.

供應鏈問題有所好轉，但繼續對典型產品流造成乾擾，尤其是鞋類和品牌女裝和童裝。我們相信，在這種情況下，我們已經很好地應對了這些挑戰。儘管當前環境面臨挑戰，我們仍將繼續努力改善我們的業務並實現長期增長。我們的可持續產品供應繼續增長，占我們第二季度總淨銷售額的 7%。

We recently added a home category to serve teens and college students, which is off to a good start. We believe these offerings can bring incremental business to us over time. We also expect to launch our upgraded mobile app ahead of the holiday season, which we believe will improve customer engagement through an improved mobile shopping experience compared to what has been a simple wrap of our website previously.

我們最近添加了一個家庭類別來服務青少年和大學生，這是一個良好的開端。我們相信，隨著時間的推移，這些產品可以為我們帶來增量業務。我們還希望在假期前推出我們升級的移動應用程序，我們相信與之前對我們網站的簡單包裝相比，這將通過改進的移動購物體驗來提高客戶參與度。

In terms of real estate, we now expect to open a total of 11 new stores this year, 4 of which have already been opened, 2 are scheduled to open in mid-September, 1 in October and 4 in November, just ahead of Thanksgiving. We continue to believe that we have ample opportunities to grow our total store count by 10 or more stores per year over the next several years despite current challenges with rising construction costs and inflation in general. However, as we said in the past, we intend to be disciplined in our approach to new store openings and we'll only open new stores that reflect what we believe is to be appropriate lease economics relative to the environment we expect.

地產方面，我們現在預計今年將開出11家新店，其中4家已經開業，2家計劃在9月中旬開業，10月1日，11月4日，正好在感恩節之前.我們仍然相信，儘管目前建築成本上升和總體通脹面臨挑戰，但我們仍有充足的機會在未來幾年內將我們的總店數每年增加 10 家或更多店。然而，正如我們過去所說，我們打算在新店開業的方法上保持紀律，並且我們只會開設反映我們認為相對於我們預期的環境具有適當租賃經濟性的新店。

Turning to the third quarter of fiscal 2022, which includes the peak of back-to-school season, total comparable net sales through August 30, including both physical stores and e-com decreased by 10.6% versus the comparable period of last year. The less negative comp trend that began in the later half of July carried through the first half of August before returning to negative double digits in the later half of August. For additional perspective, relative to the comparable period of the pre-pandemic third quarter of fiscal 2019 comparable net sales through August 30 increased by 7.5%.

談到 2022 財年第三季度，其中包括返校季的高峰期，截至 8 月 30 日，包括實體店和電子商務在內的可比淨銷售額與去年同期相比下降了 10.6%。從 7 月下半月開始的負面補償趨勢持續到 8 月上半月，然後在 8 月下半月恢復到負兩位數。從其他角度來看，相對於大流行前 2019 財年第三季度的可比期間，截至 8 月 30 日的可比淨銷售額增長了 7.5%。

While these August comp results represent an improvement compared to our second quarter comp performance, we are expecting the latter half of the third quarter to decrease significantly compared to last year once the traditional back-to-school shopping period concludes, particularly given the impacts of inflation this year, and the early shop -- early holiday shopping that took place last year.

雖然這些 8 月份的業績與我們第二季度的業績相比有所改善，但我們預計，一旦傳統的返校購物期結束，第三季度後半期的業績將比去年顯著下降，特別是考慮到今年的通貨膨脹，以及去年發生的提前購物——提前假日購物。

We feel good about our merchandise assortment for the holiday season and if the holiday season follows more traditional patterns, we believe we have an opportunity to have a better performance trend in the fourth quarter. We will continue to manage our business thoughtfully relative to the environment with improved long-term performance in mind.

我們對假日季節的商品分類感覺良好，如果假日季節遵循更傳統的模式，我們相信我們有機會在第四季度有更好的表現趨勢。我們將繼續在考慮到改善長期績效的情況下，根據環境周到地管理我們的業務。

I now turn the call over to Mike to discuss our second quarter operating results and third quarter outlook in more detail. Mike?

我現在將電話轉給邁克，以更詳細地討論我們第二季度的經營業績和第三季度的展望。麥克風？

Thanks, Ed. Our second quarter operating results compared to last year were as follows: total net sales were $168.3 million, a decrease of $33.6 million or 16.7% compared to a company's second quarter record of $202 million last year due to going up against last year's unprecedented pent-up demand and stimulus impacts.

謝謝，埃德。與去年相比，我們第二季度的經營業績如下：總淨銷售額為 1.683 億美元，與公司去年第二季度的創紀錄的 2.02 億美元相比減少了 3360 萬美元或 16.7%，這是由於去年前所未有的 pent-需求上升和刺激影響。

Total comparable net sales, including both physical stores and e-commerce, decreased by 16.4%. Total net sales from physical stores were $137.1 million, a decrease of $27.5 million or 16.7%, compared to $164.6 million last year with a comparable store net sales decrease of 16.5%. Net sales from physical stores represented 81.5% of our total net sales both this year and last year.

包括實體店和電子商務在內的可比淨銷售額總額下降了 16.4%。實體店總淨銷售額為 1.371 億美元，減少 2750 萬美元或 16.7%，而去年同期為 1.646 億美元，同店淨銷售額減少 16.5%。實體店的淨銷售額占我們今年和去年總淨銷售額的 81.5%。

E-commerce net sales were $31.2 million, a decrease of $6.1 million or 16.4% compared to $37.3 million last year. E-comm net sales represented 18.5% of total net sales, both this year and last year. We ended the second quarter with 242 total stores, a net decrease of 2 stores since the end of last year's second quarter. For additional perspective, our comparable net sales for the second quarter decreased by 0.6% relative to the pre-pandemic second quarter of fiscal 2019, despite starting the quarter at high single digits on a percentage basis in May, which we believe is another indication of the impact that inflation had on our customers.

電子商務淨銷售額為 3120 萬美元，與去年的 3730 萬美元相比，減少了 610 萬美元或 16.4%。電子商務淨銷售額佔今年和去年總淨銷售額的 18.5%。我們在第二季度末共有 242 家門店，自去年第二季度末以來淨減少了 2 家門店。從其他角度來看，儘管在 5 月份以高個位數百分比計算該季度開始時，我們第二季度的可比淨銷售額相對於大流行前的 2019 財年第二季度下降了 0.6%，我們認為這是另一個跡象通貨膨脹對我們客戶的影響。

Gross profit, including buying, distribution and occupancy expenses, was $52 million or 30.9% of net sales, compared to $74.7 million or then company record of 37% of net sales last year. Buying, distribution and occupancy costs deleveraged by 330 basis points collectively despite being reduced by $0.9 million due to carrying these costs against a significantly lower level of net sales this year.

包括購買、分銷和占用費用在內的毛利潤為 5200 萬美元，占淨銷售額的 30.9%，而去年為 7470 萬美元，占公司淨銷售額的 37%。儘管由於今年淨銷售額顯著降低而將這些成本降低了 90 萬美元，但購買、分銷和占用成本集體去槓桿化了 330 個基點。

Product margins declined by 280 basis points, primarily due to an increased and more normalized markdown rate compared to last year when full price selling was at record levels. Product margins were down 100 basis points compared to the prepandemic second quarter of fiscal 2019. Total SG&A expenses were $46.8 million or 27.8% of net sales, compared to $48.3 million or 23.9% of net sales last year.

產品利潤率下降了 280 個基點，主要是由於與去年全價銷售處於創紀錄水平時相比，降價率增加且更加正常化。與大流行前的 2019 財年第二季度相比，產品利潤率下降了 100 個基點。SG&A 總費用為 4680 萬美元，占淨銷售額的 27.8%，而去年為 4830 萬美元，占淨銷售額的 23.9%。

The $1.5 million reduction in SG&A dollars was primarily attributable to the absence of any corporate bonus accrual this year, compared to $2.8 million included in last year's SG&A and a $0.7 million reduction in e-comm marketing expenses this year. Partially offsetting these expense reductions were less significant increases in each of our store payroll and related benefits, technology services, e-comm fulfillment and insurance expenses. Our store teams did a great job managing their labor usage to lower average hours per store compared to last year, but this was more than offset by a nearly 9% average hourly wage rate increase.

SG&A 美元減少 150 萬美元主要是由於今年沒有任何應計公司獎金，而去年的 SG&A 包括 280 萬美元，今年電子商務營銷費用減少了 70 萬美元。部分抵消這些費用減少的是我們每個商店工資單和相關福利、技術服務、電子商務履行和保險費用的顯著增長。我們的商店團隊在管理勞動力使用方面做得很好，與去年相比，每家商店的平均小時數減少了，但這被近 9% 的平均小時工資增長所抵消。

Operating income was $5.2 million or 3.1% of net sales, compared to a company's second quarter record of $26.4 million or 13.1% of net sales last year. Income tax expense was $1.5 million or 28.4% of pretax income, compared to $5.9 million or 22.5% of pretax income last year. The increase in effective income tax rate was primarily due to discrete tax impacts related to stock-based compensation. Net income was $3.8 million or $0.13 per diluted share, compared to a company's second quarter record of $20.4 million in net income and an all-time quarterly record of $0.66 per diluted share last year. Weighted average shares were $30.2 million this year compared to $31.1 million last year.

營業收入為 520 萬美元，占淨銷售額的 3.1%，而去年該公司第二季度的記錄為 2640 萬美元，占淨銷售額的 13.1%。所得稅費用為 150 萬美元或稅前收入的 28.4%，而去年為 590 萬美元或稅前收入的 22.5%。有效所得稅率的增加主要是由於與股票薪酬相關的離散稅收影響。淨收入為 380 萬美元或每股攤薄收益 0.13 美元，而該公司第二季度的淨收入為 2040 萬美元，去年創下的季度記錄為每股攤薄收益 0.66 美元。今年的加權平均股價為 3020 萬美元，而去年為 3110 萬美元。

Turning to our balance sheet. We ended the second quarter with total cash and marketable securities of $116.4 million and no debt outstanding. This compared to $148.5 million at the end of the second quarter last year, also with no debt outstanding. Since the end of last year's second quarter, we paid special cash dividends to stockholders of $30.9 million in December 2021 and repurchased 987,000 shares of our common stock for a total of $9 million this year. We have just over 1 million shares remaining under our share repurchase authorization, which expires in March 2023.

轉向我們的資產負債表。我們在第二季度結束時的現金和有價證券總額為 1.164 億美元，沒有未償債務。相比之下，去年第二季度末為 1.485 億美元，也沒有未償債務。自去年第二季度末以來，我們在 2021 年 12 月向股東支付了 3,090 萬美元的特別現金股息，並在今年以總計 900 萬美元的價格回購了 987,000 股我們的普通股。我們的股票回購授權僅剩 100 萬股，該授權將於 2023 年 3 月到期。

We ended the second quarter with inventories at cost up 4.1% per square foot, a significant improvement from being up 12.7% at the end of the first quarter. Unit inventories were down 1.1% per square foot relative to last year. As we continue to contend with inconsistent product flows resulting from ongoing supply chain challenges, our goal remains to continue rightsizing our inventories relative to sales performance and anticipated sales trends, while continuing to maintain product margins that are reasonably consistent with our pre-pandemic performance as we've been doing thus far this year.

我們在第二季度末的存貨成本每平方英尺增加了 4.1%，與第一季度末的 12.7% 相比有了顯著改善。與去年相比，每平方英尺的單位庫存下降了 1.1%。由於我們繼續應對持續的供應鏈挑戰導致的不一致產品流，我們的目標仍然是繼續根據銷售業績和預期銷售趨勢調整我們的庫存，同時繼續保持與我們大流行前業績合理一致的產品利潤率，因為今年到目前為止，我們一直在做。

Total capital expenditures for the first half were $6.9 million compared to $8.5 million last year. The decrease being primarily due to earlier new store openings last year. For fiscal 2022 as a whole, we currently expect our total capital expenditures to be in the range of $22 million to $24 million.

上半年的總資本支出為 690 萬美元，而去年為 850 萬美元。減少的主要原因是去年較早的新店開業。對於整個 2022 財年，我們目前預計我們的總資本支出將在 2200 萬美元至 2400 萬美元之間。

Turning to the third quarter of fiscal 2022. Based on our quarter-to-date net sales results and current and historical trends and anticipating some deceleration in the latter half of the quarter, as Ed noted earlier, we currently expect our total net sales for the third quarter of fiscal 2022 to be in the range of approximately $165 million to $170 million, SG&A to be approximately $46 million to $47 million, operating income to be in the range of approximately $1.9 million to $4.6 million, our estimated income tax rate to be approximately 27% and earnings per diluted share to be in the range of $0.05 to $0.11 based on estimated weighted average diluted shares of approximately $30.2 million.

談到 2022 財年第三季度。根據我們本季度迄今的淨銷售額結果以及當前和歷史趨勢，並預計本季度後半段會出現一些減速，正如 Ed 之前指出的那樣，我們目前預計我們的總淨銷售額為2022 財年第三季度約為 1.65 億美元至 1.7 億美元，SG&A 約為 4600 萬美元至 4700 萬美元，營業收入約為 190 萬美元至 460 萬美元，我們估計的所得稅率為約為 27%，每股攤薄收益在 0.05 美元至 0.11 美元之間，基於估計的加權平均攤薄股份約為 3020 萬美元。

This compares to a company quarterly record of $206.1 million in net sales and record earnings per diluted share of $0.66 for the third quarter last year, which exceeded the previous company record for third quarter earnings per share by $0.30. We expect to have 247 total stores opened at the end of the third quarter, a net increase of 4 from 243 total stores at the end of last year's third quarter.

相比之下，去年第三季度公司的季度淨銷售額為 2.061 億美元，稀釋後每股收益為 0.66 美元，比公司此前第三季度每股收益的記錄高出 0.30 美元。我們預計第三季度末共有 247 家門店開業，比去年第三季度末的 243 家淨增加 4 家。

Operator, we'll now go to our Q&A session.

接線員，我們現在進入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Jeff Van Sinderen, B. Riley.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Jeff Van Sinderen, B. Riley。

So first, let me say really good work getting the inventory -- the overall inventory down. Kudos on that. I have a multipart question here if you can bear with me. But given the pace of sales and ongoing supply chain challenges that I think most folks are experiencing, how far do you believe that you are from -- what in your eyes would be an optimal inventory level?

所以首先，讓我說庫存的工作非常好 - 整體庫存下降。對此表示讚賞。如果你能忍受我，我在這裡有一個多部分的問題。但考慮到我認為大多數人正在經歷的銷售速度和持續的供應鏈挑戰，你認為你離你還有多遠——在你看來，最佳庫存水平是多少？

And then maybe you can speak more to kind of how you're managing and planning inventory for the remainder of the year, any sort of excess current inventory that you have now, what that consists of? And then any areas of the merchandise assortment where supply chain remains disruptive?

然後也許你可以更多地談談你如何管理和計劃今年剩餘時間的庫存，你現在擁有的任何類型的過剩當前庫存，包括什麼？那麼供應鏈仍然具有破壞性的商品分類的任何領域？

And then maybe just touch on planned holiday inventory receipt cadence, ability to adjust, make cancellations reorders around holiday, a lot there, I realize.

然後也許只是觸及計劃的假期庫存收貨節奏，調整能力，在假期前後取消訂單，我意識到很多。

Jeff, I would say the inventory levels right now are pretty close to optimum. I think they are where we want to be. As you've seen from other retailers' report, to be up single digit -- low single digits on inventory is total credit to the whole team here who worked very hard to get it to that number. But also, the big challenge is making sure that when you adjust to that number that you get the right mix, there's a couple of categories of brands that we wish we had more inventory in. But overall, I think going into holiday, at least from what we can see right now, most of the supply chain challenges are behind us. Well, I'm sure we'll have a few. But I feel pretty good in terms of where we're heading. And we're taking a pretty conservative approach to Q4 for inventory. But I would expect that we'll be able to manage it within a reasonable number for sure.

傑夫，我想說現在的庫存水平非常接近最佳水平。我認為他們是我們想去的地方。正如您從其他零售商的報告中看到的那樣，達到個位數 - 庫存的低個位數是對這裡整個團隊的總功勞，他們非常努力地達到這個數字。但同時，最大的挑戰是確保當你調整到這個數字時，你得到了正確的組合，有幾個類別的品牌我們希望我們有更多的庫存。但總的來說，我認為至少要進入假期從我們現在可以看到的情況來看，大多數供應鏈挑戰都已經過去了。好吧，我相信我們會有一些。但就我們前進的方向而言，我感覺很好。我們對第四季度的庫存採取了相當保守的方法。但我希望我們肯定能夠在合理的數量內管理它。

Yes. And Jeff, I'd add. I think we expect our overall inventory level to be reduced to some extent by the time we finish the third quarter here and certainly expect to enter fiscal '23 at the end of the fourth quarter with reduced overall inventory value. The challenge as we talk about these supply chain disruptions and delays is you have certain things that are 4 to 6 to 8 weeks late, but you still want them as a key part of your assortment. You take them in regardless of where the quarter end line is. And so we have some of those kinds of distortions that are negatively impacting what would be our normal behavior and performance in what I'll call normalized times.

是的。還有傑夫，我想補充一下。我認為我們預計到我們在這裡完成第三季度時我們的整體庫存水平將在一定程度上降低，並且當然希望在第四季度末進入 23 財年，總體庫存價值會降低。當我們談論這些供應鏈中斷和延遲時，挑戰在於您有某些東西會延遲 4 到 6 到 8 週，但您仍然希望它們作為您的分類的關鍵部分。無論四分之一結束線在哪裡，您都可以接受它們。所以我們有一些這樣的扭曲，它們會對我們在我稱之為正常化時期的正常行為和表現產生負面影響。

And obviously, nothing about the last 2.5 years is anything like I call normalized times going from the pandemic shutdown in 2020 to the incredible breakout recovery year last year and now into this highly inflationary environment that we haven't seen in 40 years. We've just been whipsawing back and forth over the last couple of years. And I think the team has done an outstanding job adapting as best we can at any moment in time. We've been carefully making real-time decisions about what to cancel. We do tend to have cancellation rights if deliveries are meaningfully late past their original planned delivery date.

顯然，過去 2.5 年的一切都不像我所說的正常化時期，從 2020 年的大流行關閉到去年令人難以置信的突破性複蘇，再到現在進入 40 年來從未見過的高度通脹環境。在過去的幾年裡，我們一直在反复推敲。而且我認為團隊在任何時候都盡最大努力適應了出色的工作。我們一直在謹慎地實時決定取消什麼。如果交貨明顯晚於原計劃的交貨日期，我們確實傾向於擁有取消權。

So we've been taking advantage of those situations, making returns in certain other situations and yet also trying to protect, I mentioned that we feel good about our holiday assortment, we want to make sure we have good ammo to go into Black Friday weekend as well from a merchandising standpoint. So it's a constant balancing act. We discussed it multiple times a week, every single week, just because things change that rapidly. But again, we both feel like the team has just done yeoman's work at trying to keep us as under control as we can under extremely difficult circumstances.

所以我們一直在利用這些情況，在某些其他情況下獲得回報，但也試圖保護，我提到我們對我們的假期分類感覺很好，我們想確保我們有足夠的彈藥進入黑色星期五週末從商品的角度來看也是如此。所以這是一個持續的平衡行為。我們每週多次討論它，每週一次，只是因為事情變化如此之快。但同樣，我們都覺得團隊剛剛完成了約曼的工作，試圖在極其困難的情況下盡可能地控制我們。

Okay. Good. And then just as a follow-up, I wanted to touch on I guess, if you could speak a little more about how you're handling and planning your own promotional levels. Obviously, the environment is extraordinarily promotional out there. Just any thoughts around that?

好的。好的。然後作為後續行動，我想我想談談，如果您能多談談您如何處理和計劃自己的促銷級別。顯然，那裡的環境非常促銷。只是有什麼想法嗎？

Well, one thing, as you know, we have been pretty disciplined as a company of not being overly promotional and not getting into the promotional game. And that's the whole reason for why -- that's one of the main reasons why we control -- do such a good job of controlling inventory because we don't want to have to promote our way out of it. I don't think promotions are driving business from many retailers right now.

好吧，有一件事，如您所知，作為一家公司，我們一直非常自律，不會過度促銷，也不會參與促銷遊戲。這就是為什麼——這也是我們控制庫存的主要原因之一——在控制庫存方面做得如此出色的全部原因，因為我們不想推廣我們的出路。我不認為促銷活動目前正在推動許多零售商的業務。

Honestly, I think it's challenging no matter whether you're promotional or not. Certain categories, turning back-to-school, that seem more promotional than others was denim. And I want -- bottom business has actually been pretty good. Denim not so great. But we've been able to avoid any unusual promotions, and we would expect that to continue through the balance of the year.

老實說，無論您是否促銷，我都認為這具有挑戰性。某些類別，回到學校，似乎比其他類別更具促銷性是牛仔布。我想要 - 底層業務實際上已經相當不錯了。牛仔布不是很好。但我們已經能夠避免任何不尋常的促銷活動，我們預計這種情況將持續到今年餘下時間。

Yes, we're being very surgical about what we need to move to address any problem areas and thankfully, we don't have the size of inventory increase relative to almost anyone else I've seen report so far. I've looked at over a couple of dozen different companies and there's a lot of really high inventory percentage increases year-over-year out there. And thankfully, we're one of the very smallest.

是的，我們對解決任何問題領域需要採取的行動非常謹慎，幸運的是，相對於我迄今為止看到的幾乎任何其他報告，我們的庫存增加幅度都沒有。我查看了幾十家不同的公司，並且有很多非常高的庫存百分比同比增長。幸運的是，我們是最小的之一。

Our next question comes from the line of Mitch Kummetz with Seaport Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Seaport Research 的 Mitch Kummetz。

Mike, just starting with a housekeeping question. You gave a comp on a year-over-year and also a 3-year. Do you happen to know August sales year-over-year and also August sales, the increase or decrease, versus 3 years ago? Do you happen to have that?

邁克，剛從一個家政問題開始。你給出了一個同比和 3 年的補償。您是否碰巧知道 8 月份的銷售額同比以及 8 月份的銷售額與 3 年前相比是增加還是減少？你碰巧有這個嗎？

We gave the August comp through August 30, down 10.6% to last year...

我們給出了截至 8 月 30 日的 8 月補償，比去年下降了 10.6%……

Do you have the sales number, though, -- you gave the comp, but do you have the sales that's on a year-over-year and also on a 3-year?

但是，您是否有銷售數字——您提供了補償，但是您是否有同比和 3 年的銷售額？

I don't have specific sales numbers through a specific date, no.

我沒有到特定日期的特定銷售數字，沒有。

Okay. I was trying to back into what sort of implied sales you need for the balance of the quarter to get to your range. Do you happen to have that?

好的。我試圖回到你需要什麼樣的隱含銷售額才能使本季度的餘額達到你的範圍。你碰巧有這個嗎？

Yes, we're -- I can tell you that raw sales -- keep in mind, we're in the very first week of fiscal September. So the books are being closed as we speak. So we don't have final sales numbers for August yet. But at least raw point of sale -- raw point of sales plus e-comm, we did $88 million of sales in August. In pre-pandemic years, August represented just over 50% of the quarter.

是的，我們 - 我可以告訴你原始銷售 - 請記住，我們正處於 9 財年的第一周。所以在我們說話的時候，這些書正在合上。所以我們還沒有 8 月份的最終銷售數字。但至少原始銷售點 - 原始銷售點加上電子商務，我們在 8 月份實現了 8800 萬美元的銷售額。在大流行前幾年，8 月僅佔該季度的 50% 以上。

Obviously, none of those years had a highly inflationary environment and did not have the glut of inventory that is in the marketplace that we have today. We are contemplating a slowdown as we mentioned, our earliest back-to-school stores have declined by more than 20% here recently.

顯然，那些年沒有一個高度通貨膨脹的環境，也沒有我們今天市場上的庫存過剩。正如我們所提到的，我們正在考慮放緩，我們最早的返校商店最近在這裡下降了 20% 以上。

So that gives us some pause about the level of falloff amid this inflationary environment that we could be facing. And then you think about last year's October, which was historically unusual in how large it was as a percentage of the quarter, it was, I think, about 25% of total third quarter sales, it's never been that high in any pre-pandemic year. So we certainly feel like there was a pull forward of holiday shopping last year, amid all the noise and concerns about supply chain difficulties. And we had third quarter sales that were higher than our fourth quarter sales, that's never happened in our history.

因此，在我們可能面臨的這種通貨膨脹環境中，這讓我們對下降水平有些猶豫。然後你想想去年的 10 月，這在歷史上是不尋常的，它佔該季度的百分比有多大，我認為，它佔第三季度總銷售額的 25% 左右，在大流行前從未如此高年。因此，在所有關於供應鏈困難的噪音和擔憂中，我們當然覺得去年的假日購物有所推動。我們第三季度的銷售額高於第四季度的銷售額，這在我們的歷史上從未發生過。

So we are expecting a lot more challenges in the back half of this quarter. However, the flip side of that, the positive of that should indicate that we'll have a better performance trend in the fourth quarter, assuming the normalized holiday shopping patterns return. So that pull forward that happened last year, moving that back into the fourth quarter this year should mean that we won't be quite as negative as we were in the second quarter or as we're anticipating being for the third quarter.

因此，我們預計本季度後半期將面臨更多挑戰。然而，另一方面，如果恢復正常的假日購物模式，那麼其積極的一面應該表明我們將在第四季度有更好的表現趨勢。因此，去年發生的這種推動，將其推遲到今年第四季度應該意味著我們不會像第二季度或我們預期的第三季度那樣消極。

September and October were even tougher compares than August was last year as it relates to fiscal 2019 in particular. So we do expect the remainder of this quarter to be tough, but it should mean that we have an opportunity to have better performance in the fourth quarter.

與去年 8 月相比，9 月和 10 月的情況更加嚴峻，尤其是與 2019 財年有關。因此，我們確實預計本季度剩餘時間會很艱難，但這應該意味著我們有機會在第四季度取得更好的表現。

Okay. And just to clarify your comments. I know you're not giving Q4 guidance, but it sounded like you expect Q4 to be less negative. That was sort of my takeaway from what you just said. I don't know if that's accurate.

好的。只是為了澄清你的意見。我知道您沒有給出第四季度的指導，但聽起來您預計第四季度的負面影響較小。這就是我從你剛才所說的內容中得到的一些結論。我不知道這是否準確。

Yes, that's right. Last year, every quarter set records for quarterly sales and records for gross margin rates, unlike anything we've seen in our prior history. So I think -- I do believe total sales in the fourth quarter will still be below last year's fourth quarter, but it should be less negative. I think the consensus number coming into this call for the fourth quarter was in the high 180s, I think somewhere in the 180s is a reasonable number to look at this early date, assuming there isn't some other leg down economically or with consumer spending or something of that nature.

是的，這是正確的。去年，每個季度都創下了季度銷售額和毛利率的記錄，這與我們之前的歷史記錄不同。所以我認為 - 我確實相信第四季度的總銷售額仍將低於去年第四季度，但應該不會那麼負面。我認為第四季度電話會議的共識數字是在 180 年代的高位，我認為 180 年代的某個時候是一個合理的數字來看待這個早期的日期，假設經濟或消費者支出沒有其他方面的下降或類似的東西。

I think that number is probably fair for the fourth quarter. I think the prelim numbers for Q4, I think the consensus for SG&A is too light, and I think the gross margin rate is too high. We've been tracking fairly close to 2019 gross margin rates. So if I'd adjust anything for fourth quarter at this point, I'd suggest that the consensus margin rate is too high above fiscal 2019 than what we would reasonably expect.

我認為這個數字對於第四季度來說可能是公平的。我認為第四季度的初步數據，我認為 SG&A 的共識太輕，我認為毛利率太高。我們一直在追踪相當接近 2019 年的毛利率。因此，如果此時我要對第四季度進行任何調整，我建議共識保證金率高於 2019 財年，超出我們的合理預期。

Okay. And then on the inventory, you mentioned the improvement that you've seen going from last quarter to this quarter on a per store basis. Ed, you mentioned though that swim was particularly weak. So I guess my question is, within your quarter-end inventory, I mean, is there really any seasonal excess? Or were you able to clear that through in the quarter itself?

好的。然後在庫存方面，您提到了從上一季度到本季度每家商店的改善情況。埃德，你提到游泳特別弱。所以我想我的問題是，在你的季度末庫存中，我的意思是，真的有季節性過剩嗎？或者您是否能夠在本季度中清除這一點？

The inventory is very, very clean. So we ended the quarter in good shape by category. There's always going to be some pockets here and there and there are, but that we might be -- but we're in pretty good shape.

庫存非常非常乾淨。因此，我們按類別結束了本季度的良好狀態。總會有一些口袋在這里和那裡，但我們可能會 - 但我們的狀態非常好。

Yes. And we're very disciplined in every single quarter from an aging perspective, we always approve for any and all aged goods or beyond a certain age and below a certain inventory turn rate that is our consistent discipline forever and ever and anything where we see that kind of risk we have accrued for that at this point.

是的。從老化的角度來看，我們在每個季度都非常自律，我們總是批准任何和所有老化商品或超過特定年齡且低於特定庫存周轉率，這是我們永遠和永遠以及我們看到的任何事情的一貫紀律在這一點上，我們為此積累了某種風險。

And then last question. I know that store labor has been a pressure point. Do you have -- Mike, do you have any sense as to what store labor the increase for this quarter is versus 3 years ago or from a margin standpoint, how much basis point pressure this quarter versus 3 years ago?

然後最後一個問題。我知道商店勞動力一直是一個壓力點。你有沒有 - 邁克，你對本季度與 3 年前相比增加多少商店勞動力有任何感覺，或者從利潤率的角度來看，本季度與 3 年前相比有多少基點壓力？

Yes. On an hourly rate basis, we did an analysis of our store payroll usage just to evaluate are we being as tight as we can, efficient as we can on an hours basis. And as I said in our prepared remarks, our teams did a really good job managing to average -- a lower average number of hours per store, a 7% reduction versus last year and versus fiscal 2019. The challenge has been the rate increase from last year was up 9% versus 3 years ago, it was up 19%.

是的。我們按小時費率對商店工資單的使用情況進行了分析，只是為了評估我們是否盡可能地緊張，按小時計算是否盡可能高效。正如我在準備好的評論中所說，我們的團隊在平均管理方面做得非常好——每家商店的平均小時數較低，與去年和 2019 財年相比減少了 7%。挑戰在於從去年比 3 年前增長了 9%，增長了 19%。

So it's gone up considerably. And a lot of that has to do with California. We're at $15 already here, and we've been absorbing dollar a year increases for several years. So when you think about roughly 100 of our stores are in California, they're all at a minimum of $15, 3 years ago, that was $12. And so that...

所以漲了不少。其中很多與加利福尼亞有關。我們的價格已經是 15 美元，而且我們已經吸收了幾年來每年增加的美元。所以當你想想我們大約有 100 家商店在加利福尼亞時，它們的最低價格都是 15 美元，3 年前是 12 美元。所以...

Yes. And I don't see that changing anytime soon. It's -- we're still not out of the woods in terms of the challenges with labor rate increases and availability of labor, but the team has done a good job of managing through it.

是的。而且我認為這種情況不會很快改變。這是 - 就勞動力價格增加和勞動力可用性的挑戰而言，我們仍然沒有擺脫困境，但團隊在管理方面做得很好。

And our next question comes from the line of Matt Koranda with ROTH Capital.

我們的下一個問題來自 ROTH Capital 的 Matt Koranda。

Yes. So I just wanted to put a finer point on the sort of the deceleration that's embedded in the comp guide for the rest of the quarter here. It sounds like you guys are saying it's really a comp issue more than anything and not necessarily some sort of incremental weakness you observed towards the end of August or anything like that?

是的。所以我只是想對嵌入在本季度剩餘時間的補償指南中的那種減速進行更詳細的說明。聽起來你們說這確實是一個補償問題，而不一定是你在 8 月底觀察到的某種增量弱點或類似的東西？

Yes. What we're -- in my opinion, what we're seeing is once the need-based period of back-to-school is finished, the stores are really dropping off. And I think that for, our customer base, I think inflation is having a meaningful impact. As we look back at the second quarter and the cadence of that, supposedly June and July were our easier compares, our worst comp of the quarter was in June. We were minus 17%. June was minus 20% with the final week of June being down 25%. And then July got a little bit better for the first 2% weeks and then quite a bit better as the back-to-school season started.

是的。我們是什麼——在我看來，我們所看到的是，一旦基於需求的返校期結束，商店真的會減少。而且我認為，對於我們的客戶群，我認為通貨膨脹正在產生有意義的影響。當我們回顧第二季度及其節奏時，據說 6 月和 7 月是我們更容易比較的，我們本季度最糟糕的比較是在 6 月。我們是負17%。 6 月為負 20%，6 月的最後一周下降了 25%。然後 7 月份在前 2% 的幾周里好一點，然後隨著返校季的開始好一點。

So we went from basically minus 16%, 17% in the first half of July, to a minus 11% and then negative single digits. The first 2 weeks of August were then negative single digits. And as we got in the latter half of August, when most of our stores had finished their back-to-school. We started seeing drop-offs down into -- we were 13% down on week 3, 16% in week 4, and we're down more than that here in the first week of September. And again, with that very first group of stores I mentioned in response to one of the questions, we've seen that erode to a minus 20%. So...

因此，我們從 7 月上半月的基本負 16%、17% 到負 11%，然後是負個位數。八月的前兩周是負個位數。當我們進入 8 月下半月時，我們的大多數商店都完成了返校。我們開始看到下降——我們在第 3 週下降了 13%，在第 4 週下降了 16%，而且我們在 9 月的第一周下降了更多。再一次，對於我在回答其中一個問題時提到的第一批商店，我們已經看到這一比例下降到了負 20%。所以...

Yes. And that fiscal dates vary significantly by geography, but we've seen enough now to be able to relatively accurately forecast.

是的。財政日期因地理位置而異，但我們現在已經看到足夠多的情況，能夠相對準確地進行預測。

Got it. Is that a regional and demographic difference in terms of that drop off? Like the store is any different, I guess, demographically or...

知道了。就下降而言，這是區域和人口差異嗎？就像這家商店有什麼不同，我猜，人口統計或......

Not really. It's pretty consistent throughout the country.

並不真地。在全國范圍內相當一致。

Okay. Okay. That's helpful, guys. And then just maybe a finer point on merchandise margin trends in the third quarter. Obviously, everyone is well aware of the promotional environment across the board is pretty tough. Your inventory is super clean. That's a great positive point.

好的。好的。這很有幫助，伙計們。然後可能是第三季度商品利潤率趨勢的一個更好的點。顯然，每個人都清楚地知道，全面的促銷環境是相當艱難的。您的庫存非常乾淨。這是一個很大的積極點。

But maybe just talk about what's embedded in the operating profit guide, put a finer point on merch margins for us. Any incremental headwind that we're expecting and embedding in the guide here? Or is it relatively similar to 2Q?

但也許只是談談運營利潤指南中包含的內容，為我們提供更好的商品利潤率。我們期望並在此處嵌入指南中的任何增量逆風？還是和2Q比較相似？

It's relatively similar to Q2. It's really pure dollars getting added in from the fact that we're -- sequentially from Q2 to Q3, we're adding 5 stores going from 242 to 247. And then we also had 2 stores opened in the latter half of July. So you'll have a full quarter of expense for those 2 stores. When you think about occupancy, which isn't just rents, it's also utilities and supplies and business licensed property taxes, all the things that go into occupancy plus the distribution expenses that go with those.

它與第二季度比較相似。從第二季度到第三季度，我們增加了 5 家商店，從 242 家增加到 247 家。然後我們在 7 月下半月也開了 2 家商店。因此，您將為這 2 家商店支付整整四分之一的費用。當您考慮入住時，不僅僅是租金，還包括公用事業和用品以及商業許可的財產稅，所有進入入住的東西以及隨之而來的分銷費用。

So sequentially from Q2 to Q3 as a result of those 5 new store openings during the quarter plus the 2 very late Q2 openings, we're going to add almost $2 million in a combination of distribution and occupancy expenses in the third quarter that were not there in the second quarter. While we're expecting a similar rate of sales and a similar rate of SG&A. So it's pretty directly that movement.

因此，從第二季度到第三季度，由於本季度的 5 家新店開業加上 2 家非常晚的第二季度開業，我們將在第三季度增加近 200 萬美元的分銷和入住費用第二季度在那裡。雖然我們預計類似的銷售率和類似的 SG&A 率。所以這是非常直接的運動。

Okay. Yes, that makes sense. And then I just wanted to make sure I understood sort of the inventory cadence for the rest of the year and the expectation there. It sounds to me, Mike, and I don't want to put words in your mouth, but it sounds like sequentially, it should be down each successive quarter, so down sequentially in the third quarter and then down again sequentially in the fourth quarter, but I guess there's a lot of hinges on inventory received, a lot of hinges on demand and the environment. But maybe just speak to that, if you could.

好的。是的，這是有道理的。然後我只是想確保我了解今年剩餘時間的庫存節奏以及那裡的期望。聽起來，邁克，我不想在你嘴裡說什麼，但聽起來是順序的，應該每個連續的季度下降，所以在第三季度依次下降，然後在第四季度再次下降，但我想有很多取決於收到的庫存，很多取決於需求和環境。但是，如果可以的話，也許只是說說而已。

Yes. That is our internal plan. Looking at our currently anticipated timing of receipts, which I will remind you, does change every single week things move that are supposed to arrive this week and next week, and they end up being some number of weeks late. So the team adapts as best as they can, but with the current visibility we have, what we know as of today in terms of expected sales, receipt flows, planned markdowns, we are anticipating being in a negative inventory position by the time we finish third quarter and would expect that also to be the case as we finish fourth quarter.

是的。這是我們的內部計劃。看看我們目前預計的收據時間，我會提醒你，每週都會改變本應在本周和下周到達的事情，但最終會延遲幾週。所以團隊盡可能地適應，但根據我們目前的可見性，我們今天在預期銷售、收貨流、計劃降價方面所知道的，我們預計在我們完成時處於負庫存狀態第三季度，預計在我們完成第四季度時也會如此。

Okay. Excellent. Maybe just last one. It looks like you guys were willing to sort of buy back shares at an average of $9 a share, if I just do the rough math in terms of the calculations here. And the stock is now in the low 7s. It just seems maybe like the logical conclusion here that we should have is that you'd be more willing to transact on the buyback versus special dividends at the moment. But any thoughts you'd like to opine on that front would be helpful.

好的。出色的。也許只是最後一個。看起來你們願意以平均每股 9 美元的價格回購股票，如果我只是根據這裡的計算進行粗略的計算。並且股票現在處於低位 7s。看起來我們應該得到的合乎邏輯的結論是，目前你更願意進行回購交易而不是特別股息。但是您想在這方面發表意見的任何想法都會有所幫助。

That's a fair assumption. We've been pretty strategic about it as we saw our business slowing down. In second quarter, we unfortunately had the fourth thought that, okay, well, we've completed almost half the buyback at an average price that was $9.10, and given what we're seeing, it's likely that the stock could probably go down based on how things are slowing down. So we did pause for a little bit. I wouldn't be surprised if we took some opportunistic situations to get back into that program.

這是一個公平的假設。當我們看到我們的業務放緩時，我們對此非常具有戰略意義。不幸的是，在第二季度，我們有第四個想法，好吧，好吧，我們以 9.10 美元的平均價格完成了近一半的回購，鑑於我們所看到的情況，該股很可能會下跌關於事情是如何放緩的。所以我們確實暫停了一會兒。如果我們採取一些機會主義的情況重新進入該計劃，我不會感到驚訝。

At this time, we have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. And I would now like to turn the call back over to Ed Thomas for any closing remarks.

此時，我們已經到了問答環節的尾聲。現在，我想將電話轉回給 Ed Thomas，以聽取任何結束語。

Thank you all for joining us on the call today. We look forward to sharing our third quarter results with you in early December. Have a good evening.

感謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。我們期待在 12 月初與您分享我們的第三季度業績。祝你有個美好的夜晚。

Thank you, everyone. This does conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation, and have a great day.

謝謝大家。今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與，祝您有美好的一天。