Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Talen Energy Corporation third-quarter 2026 earnings conference call.

    各位好,感謝您耐心等候。歡迎參加 Talen Energy Corporation 2026 年第三季財報電話會議。

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (接線員指示)

  • Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your speaker for today, Bill Appicelli. Please go ahead.

    請注意,今天的會議將被錄音。現在我想把會議交給今天的發言人 Bill Appicelli。請開始。

  • William Appicelli - Senior VP of Investor Relations

    William Appicelli - Senior VP of Investor Relations

  • Thank you, Lisa. Welcome to Talen Energy's third-quarter 2026 conference call. Speaking today are Chief Executive Officer, Mac McFarland; President, Terry Nutt; and Chief Financial Officer, Cole Muller. They are joined by other Talen senior executives to address questions during the second part of today's call, as necessary.

    謝謝你,Lisa。歡迎參加 Talen Energy 2026 年第三季電話會議。今天出席發言的有執行長 Mac McFarland、總裁 Terry Nutt,以及財務長 Cole Muller。他們也與其他 Talen 資深主管一同出席,並將在今天電話會議的第二部分視需要回答提問。

  • We issued our earnings release this morning, along with the presentation, all of which can be found on the Investor Relations section of Talen's website, talenenergy.com.

    我們今天早上已發布財報新聞稿以及簡報,皆可在 Talen 官網 talenenergy.com 的投資人關係專區找到。

  • Today, we are making some forward-looking statements based on current expectations and assumptions. Actual results could differ due to risk factors and other considerations described in our financial disclosures and other SEC filings. Today's discussion also includes references to certain non-GAAP financial measures. We have provided information reconciling our non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in our earnings release and the appendix of our presentation.

    今天我們將根據目前的預期與假設,提出若干前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能因風險因素及其他考量而有所不同,相關內容已載於我們的財務揭露文件及其他向 SEC 提交的申報文件中。今天的討論也會提及若干非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。我們已在財報新聞稿及簡報附錄中,提供非 GAAP 指標與最直接可比之 GAAP 指標的調節資訊。

  • With that, I will turn the call over to Mac.

    接下來我把電話會議交給 Mac。

  • Mark McFarland - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mark McFarland - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Bill. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Before we get into the quarterly results, I want to spend a few minutes on what we're seeing in the market, how we're thinking about the business and a few topics on investors' minds.

    謝謝,Bill。各位早安,感謝大家加入。在進入本季業績之前,我想先花幾分鐘談談我們在市場上看到的情況、我們如何思考這門業務,以及幾個投資人關注的議題。

  • Talen is in a fundamentally stronger position today than at any point since we began rebuilding this company. Our financial outlook continues to improve. Our cash flows are becoming more durable, and we have more ways to create value than ever before. We own advantaged assets and advantaged locations in markets where demand is growing, supply remains constrained and the value of our reliable generation continues to increase. These assets would be extraordinarily difficult, expensive, and time-consuming to replicate today.

    Talen 目前所處的基本面位置,比我們開始重建這家公司以來的任何時點都更強。我們的財務展望持續改善。我們的現金流正變得更具韌性,而我們創造價值的方式也比以往更多。我們擁有具優勢的資產與具優勢的地點,位於需求成長、供給仍受限、且可靠發電價值持續提升的市場。在當前環境下,要複製這些資產將極其困難、成本高昂且耗時。

  • Across PJM, we've seen a significant move in forward power prices and spark spreads this year. I know there's a debate about whether those levels are sustainable. Our view is straightforward. We don't expect markets to move in a straight line. There will be volatility, but we don't believe this is simply another commodity cycle. The underlying fundamentals have changed.

    今年在 PJM 範圍內,我們看到遠期電力價格與火電價差(spark spreads)出現顯著上升。我知道市場上對於這些水準是否可持續存在爭論。我們的看法很直接。我們不預期市場會呈直線式變動。波動會存在,但我們不認為這只是另一輪商品循環。其背後的基本面已經改變。

  • Demand is growing, new supply is difficult and expensive to build and the timeline for bringing new generation online continues to stretch. The demand is here, the supply isn't, and we already own the assets the market needs. Now basis matters, congestion matters and how we hedge and manage our portfolio matters.

    需求正在成長,新供給的建置困難且成本高昂,而新機組上線的時程也持續拉長。需求已經在這裡,供給卻沒有,而我們已經擁有市場所需要的資產。當然,基差很重要、壅塞很重要,以及我們如何避險並管理投資組合也很重要。

  • Our commercial team remains focused on managing those exposures and converting stronger market conditions into realized financial performance. We're seeing that translate directly into our financial outlook. Today, we're providing 2027 guidance, updating our '28 outlook and initiating our 2029 outlook. Focusing on the '29 outlook, our adjusted free cash flow is in the range of $56 to $60 per share. That outlook assumes no additional large load transactions. That's the cash-generating power of the business we've built, supported by our capital allocation strategy.

    我們的商務團隊仍專注於管理這些曝險,並將更強的市場環境轉化為可實現的財務表現。我們看到這點正直接反映在我們的財務展望上。今天我們提供 2027 年指引、更新 2028 年展望,並啟動 2029 年展望。聚焦於 2029 年展望,我們的調整後自由現金流為每股 56 至 60 美元區間。該展望假設不再新增其他大型負載交易。這就是我們所打造之業務的現金創造能力,並由我們的資本配置策略所支撐。

  • Additional large load contracting and powered land monetization represent upside. While the magnitude of the cash flow is important, so is its quality. Our objective is to generate more durable cash flow and grow that cash flow on a per share basis. That's what the Talen flywheel is all about. Strong assets in attractive markets generate significant cash flow. That gives us the flexibility to make high-return investments, pursue attractive long-term contracts, optimize our portfolio, and return capital to shareholders, all while maintaining our balance sheet discipline.

    額外的大型負載簽約與通電土地(powered land)變現代表上行空間。現金流的規模固然重要,其品質同樣重要。我們的目標是產生更具韌性的現金流,並以每股為基礎成長該現金流。這正是 Talen 飛輪策略的核心。位於具吸引力市場的優質資產能產生可觀現金流。這讓我們有彈性進行高報酬投資、爭取具吸引力的長期合約、最佳化投資組合,並在維持資產負債表紀律的同時回饋股東。

  • Contracting can lock in attractive economics and reduce risk. Strategic investments can expand our earnings base and disciplined share repurchases can drive further growth and free cash flow per share. We're not dependent on any single lever to create value. We have several and they reinforce one another.

    簽約可鎖定具吸引力的經濟效益並降低風險。策略性投資可擴大我們的獲利基礎,而有紀律的庫藏股回購可進一步推動每股成長與每股自由現金流。我們不依賴任何單一槓桿來創造價值。我們有多個槓桿,而且彼此相互強化。

  • That's the power of the flywheel and it's working, which brings me to large load contracting and powered land monetization. I know there's a lot of interest in when we're going to announce our next data center transaction. So let me address that directly. We're actively engaged with customers across our footprint, evaluating a variety of commercial structures and working to bring additional transactions to fruition. We have existing generation infrastructure, interconnections, and strategically located land. Those are all real advantages for customers trying to solve increasingly difficult power challenges.

    這就是飛輪的力量,而且它正在發揮作用,這也帶到大型負載簽約與通電土地變現。我知道大家非常關心我們何時會宣布下一筆資料中心交易。因此我直接回應這點。我們正積極與我們服務版圖內的客戶接洽,評估多種商業架構,並推動更多交易落地。我們擁有既有的發電基礎設施、併網條件,以及具策略位置的土地。對於試圖解決日益艱難用電挑戰的客戶而言,這些都是實質優勢。

  • Some need speed to power, some need reliability. Some need long-term price certainty. Increasingly, they need all three. We can provide solutions ranging from long-term power contracts to powered land development and monetization. We don't have to build a position in these markets. We already have one, and we're going to be disciplined about how we monetize it. We are focused on creating value, not headlines. The objective is to lock in attractive economics, increase the durability of our cash flows and create lasting value for our shareholders.

    有些客戶需要快速取得電力,有些需要可靠性。有些需要長期價格確定性。而越來越多情況下,他們三者都需要。我們可提供的解決方案涵蓋長期電力合約到通電土地開發與變現。我們不必在這些市場中重新建立布局。我們已經有了,而且我們會以紀律的方式將其變現。我們專注於創造價值,而不是製造新聞標題。目標是鎖定具吸引力的經濟效益、提升現金流的韌性,並為股東創造長期價值。

  • We know what we own, we know what it's worth, and we're not going to compromise that value to meet someone else's timeline. That's not a lack of urgency. That's just discipline. Every attractive transaction we execute creates an opportunity to build on an already compelling financial outlook. We're negotiating from a power -- position of strength, not necessity, and that matters.

    我們知道自己擁有什麼、知道其價值,也不會為了配合別人的時間表而犧牲這個價值。這不是缺乏急迫感。這只是紀律。我們執行的每一筆具吸引力的交易,都會帶來在既有且相當具吸引力的財務展望之上再加碼的機會。我們是在有利的談判地位——強勢而非不得已——下進行協商,而這點很重要。

  • That same conviction is reflected in our capital allocation decisions. The $1.5 billion ASR is a tangible example. We believe in the value of the business and the ASR puts capital behind that conviction. Our cash generation gives us the flexibility to invest in the business and return capital to shareholders. We can advance large load contracting, monetize powered land, optimize our portfolio, and repurchase shares. These opportunities aren't mutually exclusive. We're focused on maximizing value per share period.

    同樣的信念也反映在我們的資本配置決策上。15 億美元的 ASR(加速股票回購)就是一個具體例子。我們相信這項業務的價值,而 ASR 讓我們以資本支持這份信念。我們的現金創造能力讓我們有彈性投資於業務並回饋股東。我們可以推進大型負載簽約、將通電土地變現、最佳化投資組合,並回購股票。這些機會並非互斥。我們專注於最大化每股價值,就這麼簡單。

  • All of this is happening against the backdrop of a continued regulatory and market design reform in PJM. There's considerable discussion around large load interconnections, reliability requirements, capacity market design, price caps and how the cost of serving new demand should be allocated. We support reforms that facilitate load growth, maintain reliability, protect existing customers from inappropriate cost shifts, and provide the economic incentives necessary to retain and build new generation.

    所有這些進展,都是在 PJM 持續推動監管與市場設計改革的背景下發生的。市場對於大型負載併網、可靠性要求、容量市場設計、價格上限,以及新需求的供電成本應如何分攤等議題有相當多的討論。我們支持能促進負載成長、維持可靠性、保護既有客戶免於不當成本轉嫁,並提供保留既有發電與建置新發電所需經濟誘因的改革。

  • But I'd make two points. First, the changing market rules doesn't change the underlying physics of the system. PJM needs more reliable generation to meet growing demand. That generation takes time and capital to develop, and the existing fleet needs to be maintained economically viable. Whatever market structure ultimately emerges has to recognize those realities. You can't regulate your way out of a physical supply shortage. You can change how the market compensates generation. You can't change the fact that the system needs it.

    但我想提出兩點。第一,市場規則的變動不會改變系統底層的物理特性。PJM 需要更可靠的發電資源以滿足不斷成長的需求。這些發電資源的開發需要時間與資本,而現有機組也需要在具備經濟可行性的前提下維持運轉。無論最終形成何種市場架構,都必須認清這些現實。你無法靠監管手段就擺脫實體供給短缺。你可以改變市場如何補償發電資源。但你無法改變系統確實需要它這個事實。

  • Second, we're not waiting for every regulatory issue to be resolved before moving our business forward. We're continuing to engage with customers, advance development opportunities and evaluate commercial structures in parallel with the regulatory process. Because we have multiple ways to serve large load customers, we believe we're well positioned to adapt as those rules evolve.

    第二,我們不會等到每一項監管議題都解決後才推動業務向前。我們會持續與客戶互動、推進開發機會,並在監管流程同步評估商業架構。由於我們有多種方式可服務大型負載客戶,我們相信隨著規則演進,我們具備良好條件因應調整。

  • Regulatory uncertainty may change the path. It doesn't change the fundamental need for power or the value of the assets we own. Capacity market design matters and auction outcomes matter, and we'll continue to engage constructively in that process.

    監管不確定性可能會改變路徑。但它不會改變對電力的根本需求,也不會改變我們所擁有資產的價值。容量市場設計很重要,拍賣結果也很重要,我們將持續以建設性的方式參與該流程。

  • So let me close with this. We have attractive market fundamentals, an advantaged portfolio and a strategy focused on generating increasingly durable cash flows and growing adjusted free cash flow per share. And we're not done. We're working to capture additional value through large load contracting, optimizing our portfolio, and returning capital to shareholders. We've built a company with multiple paths to create value and the financial strength to pursue them.

    因此讓我以這點作結。我們擁有具吸引力的市場基本面、具優勢的資產組合,以及一項聚焦於產生更具韌性的現金流並提升每股調整後自由現金流的策略。而且我們還沒完成。我們正透過大型負載合約、最佳化資產組合,以及向股東返還資本來擷取額外價值。我們打造了一家擁有多條創造價值路徑、並具備追求這些路徑之財務實力的公司。

  • The strategy is working. The flywheel is working and the opportunity in front of Talen is substantial. As I look ahead to the leadership transition, I have tremendous confidence in Talen's future. Terry and the entire management team know these assets, understand these markets, and have the experience and discipline to take this business forward.

    這項策略正在奏效。飛輪效應正在運轉,Talen 眼前的機會相當可觀。展望領導階層交接,我對 Talen 的未來充滿信心。Terry 與整個管理團隊熟悉這些資產、了解這些市場,並具備推動業務向前所需的經驗與紀律。

  • One of the things that I'm most proud of is that we've built a company whose success isn't dependent on any one individual. We have the strategy, the culture, and the leadership team to keep moving forward and creating value. I believe the best days for Talen are still ahead of us.

    我最引以為傲的一點是,我們打造了一家其成功不依賴任何單一個人的公司。我們具備策略、文化與領導團隊,能持續向前並創造價值。我相信 Talen 最好的日子仍在前方。

  • And with that, I'll turn the call over to Terry.

    接下來,我把電話會議交給 Terry。

  • Terry Nutt - President

    Terry Nutt - President

  • Thank you, Mac, and good morning, everyone. Turning to our key highlights for the quarter. Our plants performed well during periods of strong demand, and I'm pleased to report that we delivered $669 million of adjusted EBITDA and $433 million of adjusted free cash flow in the quarter.

    謝謝你,Mac,各位早安。接著看本季的重點摘要。在需求強勁的期間,我們的電廠表現良好;我很高興報告,本季我們實現 6.69 億美元的調整後 EBITDA,以及 4.33 億美元的調整後自由現金流。

  • In September, we announced an increase in our share repurchase program to $3 billion through the end of 2028, including the $1.5 billion accelerated share repurchase previously announced. And when that transaction is completed, we expect to have repurchased approximately 1/3 of our shares outstanding since emergence just three years ago. That's a significant return of capital and a clear demonstration of our commitment to creating value for our shareholders.

    9 月,我們宣布將股票回購計畫提高至 2028 年底前合計 30 億美元,其中包含先前宣布的 15 億美元加速股票回購。待該交易完成後,我們預期自三年前重整後重新出發以來,累計回購約三分之一的流通在外股份。這是相當可觀的資本返還,也清楚展現我們致力於為股東創造價值的承諾。

  • PJM fundamentals remain strong. We saw continued improvement in forward spark spreads across ADHUB and PPL zones, where we have significant generation exposure. During the quarter, strong demand, tightening reserve margins and elevated outages across PJM drove increased run hours across our fleet. The market increasingly needs reliable generation. We own it, and we're seeing that value reflected in both our operating performance and our financial outlook. With nine months behind us, we're reaffirming our 2026 guidance and introducing formal 2027 guidance. We're also increasing our 2028 outlook and initiating our 2029 outlook.

    PJM 的基本面仍然強勁。我們看到 ADHUB 與 PPL 分區的遠期火電價差(spark spreads)持續改善,而我們在這些區域有顯著的發電曝險。本季,強勁需求、備轉容量裕度收緊,以及 PJM 範圍內偏高的停機情況,推動我們機組群的運轉時數增加。市場愈來愈需要可靠的發電資源。我們擁有這些資源,也看到其價值反映在營運表現與財務展望之中。在已走過九個月之際,我們重申 2026 年指引,並提出正式的 2027 年指引。我們也上調 2028 年展望,並啟動 2029 年展望。

  • We expect to generate approximately $6 billion of cumulative adjusted free cash flow through 2029. And with continued disciplined capital allocation, we expect adjusted free cash flow per share to reach $56 to $60 per share in 2029, representing nearly a 30% annual growth rate from our original 2026 base. We have multiple opportunities to create additional value beyond that. The strategy is working, and we're executing.

    我們預期至 2029 年可累計產生約 60 億美元的調整後自由現金流。在持續嚴謹的資本配置下,我們預期 2029 年每股調整後自由現金流可達每股 56 至 60 美元,較我們原先 2026 年基準幾乎相當於 30% 的年複合成長率。除此之外,我們還有多項機會可創造額外價值。策略正在奏效,我們也正在落實執行。

  • Turning to slide 3. For the nine months ended September 30, 2026, we are reporting $1.516 billion of adjusted EBITDA and $995 million of adjusted free cash flow, numbers that validate the continued growth trajectory over the past several years.

    接著看第 3 張投影片。截至 2026 年 9 月 30 日止的九個月,我們報告調整後 EBITDA 為 15.16 億美元,調整後自由現金流為 9.95 億美元;這些數字驗證了過去數年持續的成長軌跡。

  • Turning to our operational metrics. Our fleet achieved strong levels of safety and reliability during the year, including during the record-setting demand that PJM experienced during the third-quarter. We generated approximately 53 terawatt hours of power with a capacity factor of 64% so far this year. Our intermediate dispatch assets continue to have increased run times to support the higher demand in PJM. We took time in September and October during the seasonal outage period for additional maintenance to ensure the fleet is ready for the winter.

    接著看我們的營運指標。今年以來,我們的機組群在安全與可靠性方面達到強勁水準,包括在 PJM 第三季創紀錄需求期間亦是如此。截至目前今年我們發電約 53 太瓦時,容量因數為 64%。我們的中間調度資產持續增加運轉時間,以支援 PJM 較高的需求。我們在 9 月與 10 月的季節性停機期間安排額外維護,以確保機組群為冬季做好準備。

  • We continue to make investments in our assets to ensure that our fleet meets the level of reliability and performance standards we expect. This will continue to be a focus for us through the coming years, especially as the market backdrop continues to point to tightening supply and demand for several years to come.

    我們持續投資於資產,以確保機組群符合我們所期望的可靠性與績效標準。未來幾年這仍將是我們的重點,尤其是在市場背景持續指向未來數年供需將趨於緊縮的情況下。

  • Safety remains our first priority across the fleet, and our year-to-date recordable incident rate was 0.31. I would like to thank the men and women of Talen who continue to demonstrate strong operational and safety performance. The team's commitment to operate in a safe and reliable manner is an important part of Talen's value proposition.

    安全仍是全機組群的首要優先事項;今年截至目前的可記錄事故率為 0.31。我想感謝 Talen 的所有同仁,持續展現強勁的營運與安全表現。團隊以安全且可靠的方式運轉的承諾,是 Talen 價值主張的重要一環。

  • Turning to slide 4. We have seen a continued appreciation in the forward curves through the next several years. While not as pronounced as the moves in PJM and West Hub, 2028 ADHUB and PPL spark spreads rose 19% and 11%, respectively, over the quarter, as you can see from the graph on the bottom right-hand side of the slide. On a year-to-date basis, 2028 ADHUB and PPL zone spark spreads both increased by nearly 30%.

    接著看第 4 張投影片。我們看到未來數年的遠期曲線持續走強。雖然不如 PJM 與 West Hub 的變動幅度那麼明顯,但如投影片右下方圖表所示,2028 年 ADHUB 與 PPL 的火電價差在本季分別上升 19% 與 11%。以年初至今來看,2028 年 ADHUB 與 PPL 分區的火電價差皆上升近 30%。

  • Our views on PPL zonal basis remain unchanged. We continue to see this as an upside lever to our financial outlook as the combination of load ramping in the zone and completion of transmission network upgrades drive a narrowing of the zonal spread over time. In the meantime, our commercial team continues to deploy a hedging strategy around zonal basis that mitigates short- and near-term risk associated with price volatility. While larger macro factors like transmission build-out, line upgrades and load growth within the zones will impact the longer-term outlook.

    我們對 PPL 分區基差(zonal basis)的看法維持不變。我們仍將其視為財務展望的上行槓桿,因為該分區負載爬升與輸電網路升級完工的組合,將隨時間推進而促使分區價差收斂。同時,我們的商務團隊持續在分區基差上部署避險策略,以降低與價格波動相關的短期與近期風險。而更大的總體因素,例如輸電建設、線路升級以及分區內負載成長,將影響較長期的展望。

  • Moving to slide 5. The power demand outlook continues to remain strong. The two charts on the top of the slide show cumulative load additions for AEP and PPL zones. By 2031, AEP is estimated to have an additional 31 gigawatts of contracted large load additions. And PPL will have an additional 10.7 gigawatts. In the PPL zone, this includes 6 gigawatts of data centers currently under construction. We have assets and locations that are able to support the coming increase in load.

    接著看第 5 張投影片。電力需求展望仍然強勁。投影片上方兩張圖顯示 AEP 與 PPL 分區的累計負載新增量。到 2031 年,AEP 預估將新增 31 吉瓦的已簽約大型負載。而 PPL 將新增 10.7 吉瓦。在 PPL 分區中,這包括目前正在興建的 6 吉瓦資料中心。我們擁有能支援即將到來負載增加的資產與場址。

  • The increase in demand is illustrated in the lower left of the slide, where you can see the Q3 average electricity demand in PJM. 2026 demand was significantly above both 2025 and the five-year average. Increased demand and higher prices result in higher run times for our intermediate fleet, as you can see on the bottom right. Compared to Q3 2025, the capacity factor for our intermediate fleet increased from approximately 36% to 52%. This continues the trend that we have seen over the past several years.

    需求增加在投影片左下角有所呈現,您可以看到PJM第三季平均用電需求。2026年的需求顯著高於2025年以及五年平均值。需求增加與價格走高使我們的中載機組運轉時數增加,如右下角所示。相較於2025年第三季,我們中載機組的容量因數由約36%提升至52%。這延續了我們過去數年所見的趨勢。

  • All of this validates our driving thesis: that large load growth is here and more is coming. It's notable demand and the desire for more long-term certainty has not been slowed by regulatory rulings as shown by recent transactions in the market. On the regulatory front, we view the Pennsylvania executive order as setting balanced standards for project development, and we are working with stakeholders to ensure future projects have a fair and measured approach.

    這一切都驗證了我們的核心論點:大型負載成長已經到來,而且還會有更多。值得注意的是,從近期市場交易可見,需求以及對更長期確定性的追求並未因監管裁決而放緩。在監管面,我們認為賓夕法尼亞州的行政命令為專案開發訂定了平衡的標準,我們正與利害關係人合作,確保未來專案採取公平且審慎的做法。

  • We have a track record of working well with the state, as evidenced by the Susquehanna AWS transaction and intend to continue working to bring large loads and the related economic benefits to Pennsylvania. In addition, recent regulatory progress from PJM and FERC has been helpful, and we continue to see opportunities in the bilateral market as counterparties look for energy and capacity.

    我們有與州政府良好合作的紀錄,Susquehanna AWS交易即為明證,並打算持續合作,為賓夕法尼亞州引入大型負載及其相關的經濟效益。此外,PJM與FERC近期的監管進展也有所助益,且我們持續在雙邊市場看到機會,因交易對手正在尋求能源與容量。

  • Turning now to our long-term contracting solutions. As Mac noted, we continue to work with customers to find the right solutions for their needs. We believe these offerings will continue to translate into value-enhancing contracts that leverage our assets. We have 6 gigawatts of baseload generation length across our portfolio that can support customers who desire price certainty and/or physical capacity commitments.

    接下來談我們的長期合約解決方案。如Mac所提,我們持續與客戶合作,為其需求找到合適的解決方案。我們相信,這些方案將持續轉化為能運用我們資產、提升價值的合約。我們的投資組合中有6吉瓦的基載發電合約長度,可支援希望取得價格確定性及/或實體容量承諾的客戶。

  • We have 4 gigawatts of powered land sites with significant speed to power advantages. These sites can be grid connected in the 2028, 2029 window and continue to advance. Sites with this timing and scale are very attractive to hyperscalers and large developers.

    我們擁有4吉瓦的已具供電條件(powered)的土地據點,具備顯著的快速供電(speed to power)優勢。這些據點可在2028至2029年期間完成併網,並持續推進。具備此時程與規模的據點,對超大規模雲端業者(hyperscalers)與大型開發商極具吸引力。

  • We also have a 3-plus gigawatt pipeline of new capacity projects under development, including uprates, batteries and peakers. Some customers specifically desire these types of projects to help either meet their ratepayer protection pledge or other corporate commitments.

    我們也有超過3吉瓦的新容量專案開發管線,包括增容(uprates)、電池與尖峰機組(peakers)。部分客戶特別偏好這類專案,以協助達成其對用戶費率保護的承諾或其他企業承諾。

  • Additionally, Talen can offer both existing generation such as the 300 megawatts of uncontracted nuclear power from Susquehanna or one of the lowest carbon intensity combined cycle portfolios in the PJM fleet as well as new capacity options like multiple battery projects under development.

    此外,Talen可提供既有發電資產,例如Susquehanna尚未簽約的300兆瓦核能電力,或PJM機組中碳強度最低之一的複循環機組投資組合;同時也可提供新容量選項,例如多個正在開發中的電池專案。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to Cole to discuss our financial performance and outlook.

    接下來我把電話交給Cole,請他說明我們的財務表現與展望。

  • Cole Muller - Chief Financial Officer

    Cole Muller - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Terry, and good morning. Terry described how stronger demand is driving higher dispatch across our fleet and outline the commercial opportunities ahead. And I'll focus on how these dynamics translate into cash generation, our financial outlook and value per share.

    謝謝你,Terry,各位早安。Terry說明了更強勁的需求如何推動我們整體機組更高的調度量,並概述了未來的商業機會。我將聚焦於這些動態如何轉化為現金創造、我們的財務展望以及每股價值。

  • On slide 7, third-quarter adjusted EBITDA was $669 million and adjusted free cash flow was $433 million, nearly double what it was for the same period just a year ago. Year-over-year improvement reflects contributions from Freedom and Guernsey and beginning fully this quarter, Lawrenceburg, Waterford, and Darby. We also benefited from higher settled power prices, greater generation volumes and increased cleared capacity revenues.

    在投影片7,第三季調整後EBITDA為6.69億美元,調整後自由現金流為4.33億美元,幾乎是去年同期的兩倍。年增改善反映了Freedom與Guernsey的貢獻,以及自本季起全面納入的Lawrenceburg、Waterford與Darby。我們也受惠於更高的結算電價、更大的發電量,以及增加的已出清容量收入。

  • Realized hedge results partially offset these gains while acquisition financing increased cash interest payments. Our expanded fleet and stronger market conditions are translating into higher cash generation. That is the financial foundation for the per share growth Mac described earlier.

    已實現的避險結果部分抵銷了上述增益,而併購融資則提高了現金利息支付。我們擴大的機組組合與更強的市場環境正轉化為更高的現金創造。這就是Mac先前所描述之每股成長的財務基礎。

  • On slide 8, we are reaffirming our 2026 guidance midpoint of $2.125 billion in adjusted EBITDA and $1.275 billion in adjusted free cash flow, and we have narrowed each range by $25 million on either side. We are also introducing our 2027 guidance, adjusted EBITDA with a $2.675 billion midpoint, and adjusted free cash flow with a $1.625 billion midpoint.

    在投影片8,我們重申2026年指引中位數:調整後EBITDA為21.25億美元、調整後自由現金流為12.75億美元,且我們已將各區間上下限各縮窄2,500萬美元。我們也首次提出2027年指引:調整後EBITDA中位數為26.75億美元,調整後自由現金流中位數為16.25億美元。

  • At these midpoints, this represents more than 25% growth over the 2026 adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow. This guidance reflects our larger portfolio and September 30 forward curves and that we are approximately 70% hedged for expected 2027 generation. For 2028, we are approximately 35% hedged. And in 2029, we remain largely open, except for the impact of the AWS contract.

    以這些中位數來看,相較2026年的調整後EBITDA與調整後自由現金流,成長超過25%。此指引反映我們更大的投資組合、9月30日的遠期曲線,以及我們對預期2027年發電量約已避險70%。對於2028年,我們約已避險35%。而在2029年,除AWS合約的影響外,我們仍大致維持開放部位。

  • Our commercial desk continues to manage zonal basis exposure as we approach the delivery year. As Mac emphasized, the investing case does not depend on another large load agreement. This guidance is grounded in the portfolio that we own today. Please see updated modeling assumptions and hedge disclosures in the appendix for more detail.

    隨著接近交付年度,我們的商務交易團隊持續管理分區基差(zonal basis)曝險。如Mac所強調,投資論點並不依賴再簽下一份大型負載協議。此指引是以我們今天所擁有的投資組合為基礎。更多細節請參閱附錄中更新的模型假設與避險揭露。

  • Slide 9 goes to our central measure of value creation, adjusted free cash flow per share. The bar shading distinguishes underlying cash generation from the incremental per share effect of future repurchases. Holding our share count constant at approximately 42.9 million shares following the completion of the ASR, our base guidance is approximately $38 per share of adjusted free cash flow in 2027, and our 2028 outlook has a midpoint of $48 per share. This 2028 base outlook has increased approximately 20% since just last quarter.

    投影片9呈現我們衡量價值創造的核心指標:每股調整後自由現金流。長條的陰影區分了基礎現金創造與未來回購對每股的增量影響。在完成ASR後,若將股數維持不變、約為4,290萬股,我們的基礎指引為2027年每股約38美元的調整後自由現金流,而2028年展望的中位數為每股48美元。相較僅在上一季,這個2028年基礎展望已提高約20%。

  • In 2029, we introduced an outlook range of $46 to $50 per share. We provide a range given we are still three years out. Our 2029 range midpoint is flat to 2028, overcoming Brunner Island shift to gas only and the backwardation in current forward curves, which declined by more than $2 per megawatt hour year-over-year. We mark our outlook to these curves rather than assuming a recovery in power prices. Applying our capital allocation assumptions, including repurchases funded with roughly 70% of annual adjusted free cash flow, our 2028 outlook grows to $53 per share and 2029 increases to a range of $56 to $60 per share.

    在2029年,我們提出每股46至50美元的展望區間。由於距今仍有三年,我們提供區間。我們2029年區間的中位數與2028年持平,並克服Brunner Island轉為僅用天然氣,以及目前遠期曲線的逆價差(backwardation);該曲線年對年下滑超過每兆瓦時2美元。我們以這些曲線標記(mark)展望,而非假設電價回升。套用我們的資本配置假設(包括以每年調整後自由現金流約70%資助回購),我們2028年展望提高至每股53美元,2029年則增加至每股56至60美元的區間。

  • This more than doubles our 2026 baseline of $26.60 per share outlined last quarter. At today's share price, our free cash flow yield is approximately 17% when looking out to 2029. Importantly, this outlook is just executing on the base business and does not require us to capture additional opportunities in front of us. These incremental opportunities represent upside to this outlook, and that is the distinction Mac made earlier. The base outlook can stand on its own with new contracting and powered land opportunities providing potential upside.

    這較上一季所概述的2026年每股26.60美元基準高出一倍以上。以今日股價計算,展望至2029年時,我們的自由現金流殖利率約為17%。重要的是,這個展望僅需執行基礎業務,並不要求我們把握眼前的額外機會。這些增量機會代表對本展望的上行空間,這也是Mac先前所做的區分。基礎展望本身即可成立,而新的簽約與已具供電條件的土地機會則提供潛在上行。

  • Slide 10 shows the magnitude of these potential upside levers on a free cash flow per share basis. The M&A and new data center contract upsides are illustrative impacts based on our recently announced transactions. Accelerating the AWS campus load ramp by one year would add approximately $2 of incremental adjusted free cash flow per share. We remain encouraged by the pace of development and see potential for the load ramp to exceed the existing contractual schedule, perhaps by multiple years.

    投影片10顯示這些潛在上行槓桿在每股自由現金流基礎上的量級。併購(M&A)與新資料中心合約的上行為示意性影響,係基於我們近期宣布的交易。若將AWS園區負載爬坡(load ramp)提前一年,將可增加每股約2美元的增量調整後自由現金流。我們仍對開發進度的速度感到鼓舞,並看到負載爬坡可能超過既有合約時程的潛力,甚至可能提前數年。

  • Turning to the market sensitivities. Our outlook incorporates backward dated forward curves, as I mentioned earlier. A move to flat curves would represent approximately $2 to $3 per share of additional adjusted free cash flow with further potential if curves move contango. These are upside sensitivities, not assumptions embedded in our outlook. This also holds true for zonal basis. Every $5 per megawatt hour improvement in zonal basis across the portfolio corresponds to approximately $5 of an annual adjusted free cash flow per share.

    接著談市場敏感度。如我先前提到的,我們的展望納入了向後日期的遠期曲線。若曲線轉為平坦,約可帶來每股額外 2 至 3 美元的調整後自由現金流;若曲線進一步轉為正價差(contango),則仍有更多上行空間。這些是上行敏感度,而非我們展望中所內嵌的假設。分區基差(zonal basis)亦同。整體投資組合的分區基差每改善 5 美元/兆瓦時,約相當於每股每年增加 5 美元的調整後自由現金流。

  • These are illustrative and depends on transaction terms, timing, and execution, but illustrate the additional growth potential of the business. Our test for every opportunity remains the same. Does it improve risk-adjusted value per share, relative to the alternative?

    這些僅為示意,且取決於交易條款、時點與執行,但可說明本業額外的成長潛力。我們對每個機會的檢驗標準始終一致。相較於替代方案,它是否能提升每股的風險調整後價值?

  • On slide 11, we show how we are putting our capital discipline to work. In September, we expanded our share repurchase authorization to $3 billion through December 2028, including the announced $1.5 billion accelerated share repurchase.

    在第 11 張投影片,我們展示如何落實資本紀律。9 月,我們將股票回購授權擴大至 30 億美元,期限延長至 2028 年 12 月,其中包含已宣布的 15 億美元加速股票回購(ASR)。

  • The ASR is supported by our capacity monetization transaction, which brings forward contracted cash flows through May 2029. Approximately 3.8 million shares were retired upfront, and we expect to complete the ASR by the end of the first-quarter of 2027 with the final share count subject to the discounted VWAP over the duration of the program. We continue to target returning approximately 70% of adjusted free cash flow to shareholders. Repurchasing our own shares remains the benchmark against which we evaluate other uses of capital, not a reason to pass on investments that offer superior risk-adjusted returns.

    本次 ASR 由我們的容量變現交易所支持,該交易將合約現金流提前至 2029 年 5 月。約 380 萬股已於一開始即予以註銷,我們預期將於 2027 年第一季末完成 ASR;最終回購股數將取決於計畫期間的折價 VWAP(成交量加權平均價)。我們仍以向股東返還約 70% 的調整後自由現金流為目標。回購自家股票仍是我們評估其他資本用途的基準,但並非因此就放棄能提供更佳風險調整後報酬的投資。

  • Across our outlook through 2029, we expect to generate approximately $6 billion of adjusted free cash flow. $6 billion to enable significant value creation opportunities for shareholders over the next few years. At our targeted allocation rate that supports more than $4 billion of aggregate repurchases, including the ASR, while retaining flexibility for strategic investments and balance sheet priorities.

    在我們至 2029 年的展望期間內,預期可產生約 60 億美元的調整後自由現金流。這 60 億美元將使未來幾年為股東創造顯著價值的機會成為可能。依我們目標的資本配置比例,可支持合計超過 40 億美元的回購(含 ASR),同時保留策略性投資與資產負債表優先事項的彈性。

  • Balance sheet strength remains core to our framework, and we continue to target net leverage of 3.5 times over the long term. Following the capacity monetization, we expect this obligation to amortize between June 2027 through May '29. Together with expected growth in the business, this supports our objective of returning to approximately 3.5 times net leverage in the second half of 2027.

    資產負債表的穩健仍是我們框架的核心,我們長期仍以淨槓桿 3.5 倍為目標。在完成容量變現後,我們預期該項義務將於 2027 年 6 月至 2029 年 5 月間攤還。配合預期的業務成長,這將支持我們在 2027 年下半年將淨槓桿回到約 3.5 倍的目標。

  • Slide 12 illustrates another part of the flywheel, the opportunity to improve cash flow durability through long-term contracting while retaining participation in attractive power markets. The objective is not simply to contract more megawatts. It is to lock in attractive risk-adjusted economics. The existing AWS agreement continues to ramp towards its full contracted level, which gets us to approximately 35% contracted gross margin.

    第 12 張投影片說明飛輪的另一部分:透過長期合約提升現金流的耐久性,同時保留參與具吸引力電力市場的能力。目標不只是簽下更多兆瓦。而是鎖定具吸引力的風險調整後經濟性。現有的 AWS 協議持續爬坡至其完整合約水準,使我們達到約 35% 的已簽約毛利。

  • Additional contracts could increase the contracted portion of gross margin and reduce reliance on future market conditions. We show the impact of another 2 gigawatts of premium data center deals, which would take us to 60% plus contracted with potential to meaningfully go further. These incremental opportunities are illustrative and not included in our base outlook. The overall combination, higher underlying cash generation, disciplined capital allocation, and opportunities to contract at attractive economics is how we intend to compound value per share.

    額外合約可提高毛利中已簽約的占比,並降低對未來市場狀況的依賴。我們展示再增加 2GW 的高溢價資料中心交易所帶來的影響,將使已簽約占比提升至 60% 以上,且仍有顯著進一步提升的潛力。這些增量機會僅為示意,未納入我們的基準展望。整體組合——更高的基礎現金創造、嚴謹的資本配置,以及以具吸引力經濟性簽約的機會——就是我們打算提升每股價值複利成長的方式。

  • With that, I'll turn it back to Mac.

    接下來我把時間交回給 Mac。

  • Mark McFarland - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mark McFarland - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Great. Thanks, Cole, and we're going to turn it back to the operator to open the line for questions at this point.

    很好。謝謝你,Cole。接下來我們把時間交回給接線員,現在開放提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (接線員指示)

  • Shahriar Pourreza, Wells Fargo.

    Wells Fargo 的 Shahriar Pourreza。

  • Shar Pereza - Analyst

    Shar Pereza - Analyst

  • So Mac, Terry, just on the negative zonal basis in PJM, I mean, we do continue to see even further widening, especially after you guys marked on September 30. I guess what are you assuming is the normalization path there? And has that kind of been incorporated into the free cash flow figures for '27 and '28?

    Mac、Terry,關於 PJM 的負分區基差,我的意思是,我們確實持續看到進一步擴大,尤其是在你們 9 月 30 日做了估值標記之後。我想問你們假設它的正常化路徑是什麼?以及這是否已納入你們 2027 與 2028 年的自由現金流數字中?

  • Mark McFarland - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mark McFarland - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, Shahr, let me start on this, and then I'll turn it over to Cole to give you some details of what's in our numbers. We continue to think that the -- believe that the zonal basis is going to narrow over the next couple of years. And we think there's two primary drivers to that. One, obviously, we see load growing inside of PPL zone. We can see that very clearly with respect to the AWS Susquehanna campus that's going up today as well as other projects in the zone.

    是的,Shahr,我先回答這題,然後再請 Cole 提供我們數字中包含了哪些細節。我們仍然認為——也相信——分區基差在未來幾年會收斂。我們認為主要有兩個驅動因素。第一,顯然我們看到 PPL 分區內的負載正在成長。就目前正在建設的 AWS Susquehanna 園區以及該分區內其他專案而言,我們看得非常清楚。

  • And then secondly, there's a significant amount of transmission upgrade work that's getting done. It's been -- that work started at the end of last year and continues into this year and goes into the next year. So we're confident that, that basis will narrow. With respect to the numbers, let me turn it over to Cole, and he can give you some details on what's included.

    第二,正在進行大量的輸電升級工程。這些工程在去年底開始,持續到今年,並延續到明年。因此我們有信心該基差會收斂。至於數字方面,我把時間交給 Cole,他可以說明納入了哪些內容。

  • Cole Muller - Chief Financial Officer

    Cole Muller - Chief Financial Officer

  • So in terms of the impact for '27, '28, as I said earlier, our free cash flow guidance and outlook looks at just whatever the marks are. So for basis, we mark to our zonal pricing for all of our assets. And so that's already incorporated that widening basis as of 9/30, right? And so again, all these numbers are reflective of the 9/30 curve. And just as a reminder, as I said in the script, we're hedged 70% in '27 and 35% in '28, and our commercial desk is always actively working to minimize any exposure that we have on the zonal basis.

    就 2027、2028 年的影響而言,如我先前所說,我們的自由現金流指引與展望就是看當下的估值標記(marks)。因此在基差方面,我們對所有資產都以分區價格進行估值標記。所以截至 9/30 的基差擴大已經反映在內了,對吧?因此再次強調,所有這些數字都反映 9/30 的曲線。另外提醒一下,如我在講稿中提到的,我們在 2027 年已避險 70%,在 2028 年已避險 35%;而我們的商務交易團隊也一直積極運作,以將我們在分區基差上的曝險降到最低。

  • Shar Pereza - Analyst

    Shar Pereza - Analyst

  • Got it. Okay. Perfect. And then just on the 4 gigawatts opportunity, I know you noted that powered land is kind of the higher-value solution that you are marketing. I guess what's the right benchmark in terms of return on invested capital, especially relative to new build options and off-grid solutions?

    了解。好,完美。另外關於 4GW 的機會,我知道你提到「具電力供應的土地」(powered land)是你們正在推廣的較高價值解決方案。我想問在投入資本報酬率(ROIC)的基準上,尤其相對於新建選項與離網(off-grid)解決方案,合理的比較基準是什麼?

  • So maybe another way to ask is how much margin above current market prices, which are obviously up significantly, does that solution require? And is it still kind of competitive?

    換個方式問:相較於目前市場價格(顯然已大幅上升),這個解決方案需要高出多少的利潤空間?它是否仍具競爭力?

  • Mark McFarland - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mark McFarland - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Shahr, it's Mac. Look, I think the monetization of powered land for us is a means to an end. The end being long-term capacity and energy contracts and how we service those off of a combination of what sometimes we describe as a hybrid model, which is bringing some new capacity from these additions that we have in a pipeline or selling our existing capacity and energy in combo or discretely against those powered land opportunities.

    Shahr,我是 Mac。你看,對我們而言,將具電力供應的土地變現是一種達成目的的手段。目的在於長期容量與能源合約,以及我們如何透過有時我們稱之為混合模式(hybrid model)的組合來履行這些合約:也就是從我們管線中的新增容量帶入部分新容量,或是把我們既有的容量與能源以組合或分拆的方式,對應到那些具電力供應的土地機會。

  • So we're not necessarily -- obviously, when we -- if we invest in acquiring land, we want to get a fair return for that acquisition. But that is a means to an end. We're not looking to create premium out of that. What we're looking to do is facilitate the ability to locate data centers, principally in the PPL zone for a lot of those that we've -- that we're advancing. And so our goal is to take those, combine them into a transaction with a long-term PPA, if you will, and create value off of our existing fleet plus potential capacity additions in a hybrid model.

    因此我們不一定——顯然,當我們投資取得土地時,我們希望該收購能取得合理報酬。但那是達成目的的手段。我們並不是要從中創造額外溢價。我們要做的是促成資料中心的選址能力,主要是在 PPL 分區,因為我們正在推進的許多案子都在那裡。因此我們的目標是把這些機會整合到一筆交易中,搭配一份長期 PPA(購電協議),並透過我們既有機組加上潛在的新增容量,以混合模式創造價值。

  • So when we think about what a fair return for that hold is, we're -- first of all, we're not investing a lot of dollars in that. Let's just be clear. It's not like we're going out and investing hundreds of millions of dollars in these assets or billions of dollars in these assets. We're acquiring land that we hope to just get a fair sort of equity-type return on for the hold period. So I hope that answers your question. If you have a follow-up, it would be please let us know.

    因此,當我們思考那段持有期間的合理報酬時,我們——首先,我們在那上面並沒有投入很多資金。先把話說清楚。並不是說我們要出去在這些資產上投資數億美元或數十億美元。我們是在收購土地,希望在持有期間獲得一個合理、類似股權型的報酬。所以我希望這回答了你的問題。如果你有後續問題,請再告訴我們。

  • Shar Pereza - Analyst

    Shar Pereza - Analyst

  • No, no, that actually did touch it. I appreciate it, guys. That's all I had and terrific execution.

    不,不,那其實確實有回答到。謝謝你們,各位。我就這些,執行得非常出色。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Matt Petitt, Barclays.

    Matt Petitt,巴克萊。

  • Nicholas Campanella - Analyst

    Nicholas Campanella - Analyst

  • It's actually Nick Campanella on for Matt. Maybe just to dovetail off that last question, just with the end of the bilateral contracting window now being in February, I believe, can you just talk about your interest in participating that as an avenue? And just given the fact that you're talking about you can get people connected as soon as '28 now. I'm just curious, why would that not be the window to do deals now and net down this RBP requirement? Are there reasons we could be waiting past February? Could you talk to that a little?

    其實我是代替 Matt 的 Nick Campanella。也許延續上一個問題,鑑於雙邊合約簽約窗口現在我記得是在 2 月結束,你們能談談你們參與那個窗口作為一種途徑的興趣嗎?另外,既然你們提到現在最早可在 2028 年就讓客戶接入,我想問的是,為什麼不在這個窗口就先做交易,並把這個 RBP 要求淨額降低?是否有理由會等到 2 月之後?能否稍微談談?

  • Cole Muller - Chief Financial Officer

    Cole Muller - Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure, Nick. It's Cole. As we've said before, we're not beholden to a specific timeline for our deals. And so obviously, the RBP window has been extended here. So as deals get done between now and when that auction is run, of course, there may be some additional netting.

    當然可以,Nick。我是 Cole。正如我們之前說過的,我們的交易不受制於某個特定時間表。而且很明顯,RBP 的窗口在這裡已經延長了。因此,隨著交易在現在到拍賣舉行之間完成,當然,可能會有一些額外的淨額抵銷。

  • But we don't see the RBP timing as kind of driving hyperscaler decisions and our timeline necessarily. If deals get done within that time frame, great. We're obviously working on a bunch of opportunities, as Mac and Terry outlined. And when we've got something to talk about, we'll talk about it.

    但我們不認為 RBP 的時點會在某種程度上驅動超大規模雲端業者(hyperscaler)的決策以及我們的時間表。如果在那個時間範圍內完成交易,那很好。我們顯然正在推進一系列機會,正如 Mac 和 Terry 所概述的。等我們有可以對外說明的內容時,我們就會說明。

  • Nicholas Campanella - Analyst

    Nicholas Campanella - Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And then maybe just with the BRA still on track for December, seemingly, this is the last one that's capped, I believe. Just what are stakeholders or yourselves advocating for as we kind of look forward to the spring in terms of keeping the cap or reevaluating this?

    好的,很好。另外,BRA 似乎仍按計畫在 12 月進行,這看起來是最後一次有上限的,我相信是這樣。那麼,當我們展望到春季、考慮是否維持上限或重新評估時,利害關係人或你們自己在倡議什麼?

  • Terry Nutt - President

    Terry Nutt - President

  • Nick, I'll respond to that. Obviously, we've got the December auction coming up. Parameters are out there. I think most everybody has got a similar view that that's going to clear at a pretty high level all the way up to the cap at the end of the day. I think when we look towards the May auction, a couple of things from our vantage point.

    Nick,我來回應。很明顯,我們即將迎來 12 月的拍賣。相關參數都已公布。我想大多數人看法相近:最終將以相當高的水準成交,直到觸及上限。當我們看向 5 月的拍賣,從我們的角度有幾點。

  • One, we need to make sure that auctions continue to get executed on time, continue to move forward. I think that's one of the challenges that the market experienced several years ago when we got to the delay is -- we had a delay and then we had a price clear that was fairly high. There's discussion out there, rumors that maybe there's another price cap in the spring. We'll obviously participate in that discussion as it comes around.

    第一,我們需要確保拍賣能持續按時執行、持續推進。我認為市場在幾年前遇到的挑戰之一是——我們出現了延遲,然後出清價格又相當高。外界有一些討論與傳聞,說春季可能會再有另一個價格上限。我們當然會在相關討論出現時參與其中。

  • But our biggest drive is we need to continue to have the auctions execute because at the end of the day, we think that's the primary the primary function of the market is to have sort of durability and certainty around those capacity revenues because that's ultimately going to be what helps finance new build and new generation.

    但我們最大的訴求是:拍賣必須持續執行,因為歸根結底,我們認為市場最主要的功能,就是讓這些容量收入具備某種耐久性與確定性,而這最終將有助於為新建與新增發電資產的融資提供支撐。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Sullivan, Wolfe.

    Michael Sullivan,Wolfe。

  • Michael Sullivan - Analyst

    Michael Sullivan - Analyst

  • I wanted to ask maybe just -- hey, Terry, on slide 10, when you list out the incremental value drivers, what would you say is your highest conviction one of being realized over the kind of near medium term?

    我想問一下——嗨,Terry,在第 10 張投影片,你列出了增量價值驅動因素。你認為在短中期內最有把握能實現的是哪一項?

  • Cole Muller - Chief Financial Officer

    Cole Muller - Chief Financial Officer

  • Michael, this is Cole. Great question. Look, we outlined levers there that we think they're all great opportunities for them or else we wouldn't be talking about them. Obviously, some of them, we control more than others. The bottom three for sure, dependent on other parties, right, the market on the bottom two on sparks and zonal basis, data center build-out, which we don't control, but we -- as I said in the script, we see great progress. It continues to progress more than linear. I wish folks could get out there and see the site.

    Michael,我是 Cole。這是個好問題。你看,我們在那裡列出的槓桿,我們認為都是很好的機會,否則我們也不會拿出來談。顯然,其中有些我們的可控性比其他更高。最下面三項肯定取決於其他方,對吧——最下面兩項取決於市場(Sparks 與分區基差),以及資料中心的建置擴張,這些我們無法控制;但——正如我在講稿中提到的——我們看到很大的進展。而且進展持續呈現超過線性的加速。我希望大家能到現場看看那個基地。

  • So that's a upside that we see that's tangible. But again, we don't control it. Obviously, deals, the top two, M&A and data center deals -- sorry, I got them flipped to the second and third one, but you get the point. Data center deals and M&A, there are stuff we can control somewhat, but obviously depend on good deals and willing counterparties. So all are good upsides. I know I'm not answering your question directly, but we see them all as potential here.

    所以那是一個我們看得到、且相當具體的上行空間。但再說一次,我們無法控制它。至於交易,前兩項——併購(M&A)與資料中心交易——抱歉,我把它們說成第二和第三項了,但你明白我的意思。資料中心交易與併購在某種程度上是我們可以掌控的,但顯然也取決於好的交易條件以及願意合作的交易對手。所以全部都是不錯的上行因素。我知道我沒有直接回答你的問題,但我們把它們都視為潛在的可能性。

  • Michael Sullivan - Analyst

    Michael Sullivan - Analyst

  • Okay. Great. No, that makes sense. And just a follow-up on the acceleration of the AWS contract, I think you've got here going to 480 megawatts in the '28 guide. What is embedded in the '29 outlook?

    好的,很好。不,這很合理。另外追問一下 AWS 合約加速的部分,我想你們這裡在 2028 年指引是到 480 兆瓦。那 2029 年展望中包含了什麼?

  • Cole Muller - Chief Financial Officer

    Cole Muller - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. So we don't embed any acceleration within the range. Obviously, as we accelerates and as we outlined for every year of acceleration, you can see a couple of dollars per share increase. So to get to the higher end of the range in '29 for sure, some of that acceleration could be helpful. But to get into that range, we're not dependent on any acceleration.

    是的。所以我們在該區間內沒有納入任何加速假設。顯然,隨著加速、正如我們所說,每加速一年,你可以看到每股盈餘增加幾美元。因此,要達到 2029 年區間的高端,部分加速確實可能有幫助。但要進入那個區間,我們並不依賴任何加速。

  • Mark McFarland - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mark McFarland - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • It's the minimum commits basically of the contract, Michael.

    基本上就是合約的最低承諾量,Michael。

  • Michael Sullivan - Analyst

    Michael Sullivan - Analyst

  • Okay. So I just want to make sure because I think there's a step function change there, if I remember correctly, like the original slides had 840 to 1,200 megawatts. So is 840 the right number to use there basically?

    好的。我只是想確認一下,因為我記得那裡有一個階梯式的變化,比如原本的投影片是 840 到 1,200 兆瓦。所以基本上用 840 這個數字是對的嗎?

  • Cole Muller - Chief Financial Officer

    Cole Muller - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. So the PPA does start to ramp faster once you get out to '29 because of the revamped deal that we did. And so they start moving from 120-megawatt increments to 360-megawatt. So the minimum commits out in '29, as we outlined a little over a year ago, do ramp to 840-megawatt in 2029.

    是的。所以由於我們做了重新調整的交易,一旦進入 2029 年,PPA 的爬坡速度確實會更快。因此增量會從每次 120 兆瓦改為每次 360 兆瓦。所以如同我們在一年多前所概述的,2029 年的最低承諾量會爬坡到 840 兆瓦。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jeremy Tonet, JPMorgan Securities.

    Jeremy Tonet,摩根大通證券。

  • Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

    Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

  • Just wanted to come back to Power land, if I could, and specifically for time to power. Just wondering if you could talk a bit, I guess, about the different types of solutions for resource there, battery, solar, fuel cell, smaller gen assets, where’re do you see, I guess, the best opportunities right now when focused on speed?

    如果可以的話,我想回到 Power land(電力用地)這個話題,特別是「通電時間」(time to power)。想請你們談談那裡不同類型的資源解決方案,例如電池、太陽能、燃料電池、較小型的發電資產等;在以速度為重點的情況下,你們目前認為最佳機會在哪裡?

  • Terry Nutt - President

    Terry Nutt - President

  • Yes, Jeremy, I'll start and then Mac and Cole can chime in. I think, first of all, the interconnection to the grid in the 2028 time frame is really key for a number of customers, right? When you talk about large-scale reliability and what they want, getting that interconnection and getting it in a short amount of time is one of the highest priorities when we talk to hyperscalers and other developers.

    好的,Jeremy,我先開始,然後 Mac 和 Cole 可以補充。我認為,首先,在 2028 年的時間框架內完成與電網的併網(interconnection)對許多客戶來說非常關鍵,對吧?當你談到大規模的可靠性以及他們想要的東西時,取得併網並在短時間內完成,是我們與超大規模雲端業者及其他開發商交流時的最高優先事項之一。

  • The additional capacity resource, whether, as I mentioned in the script, to meet their ratepayer protection commitment or other sort of corporate commitments, it varies. There are some customers who are really keen on battery technology and storage technology. And that has been a topic of conversation that we've had with a number of counterparties. And then some are more interested in maybe a combination. I think one of the interesting things that we've noted and we'll reiterate here is at the end of the day, the solution matters, but the cost also matters.

    額外的容量資源,無論是如我在講稿中提到的,用來履行其對用戶費率保護的承諾,或是其他類型的企業承諾,情況各有不同。有些客戶對電池技術與儲能技術非常熱衷。而這也一直是我們與多位交易對手討論的話題。另外也有一些客戶可能更偏好某種組合方案。我認為我們觀察到、也會在此重申的一個有趣點是:到頭來,解決方案固然重要,但成本同樣重要。

  • I think that's been a misnomer in the market is that these hyperscalers or some of these large entities will pay any price whatsoever. You take a look at some of the inflation on large-scale generation technology, and it's been pretty sizable the last several years. And so we still think cost matters because ultimately it impacts what they pay for and what the affordability is. And so those solutions make a ton of sense as we're talking to customers.

    我認為市場上一個常見的誤解是,這些超大規模業者(hyperscalers)或某些大型機構會不惜任何代價付費。你看看大型發電技術的通膨上漲,過去幾年幅度相當可觀。因此我們仍然認為成本很重要,因為最終它會影響他們要付多少,以及可負擔性如何。所以當我們與客戶交流時,這些解決方案就顯得非常合理。

  • Mark McFarland - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mark McFarland - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Jeremy, it's Mac. Let me tack on there a little bit. First of all, I think that the focus over the past year has been on land opportunities or data center sites that could be electrified '27, '28. And I think '29 is becoming the new '28 as we roll into next year. And so I think you'll see a focus, and we sit squarely with our land opportunities in that sort of '29 development time frame, which is what we've been trying to do in the background for the past years is to advance those.

    Jeremy,我是Mac。我再補充一點。首先,我認為過去一年焦點一直放在土地機會或可在’27、’28通電(electrified)的資料中心場址。而隨著我們進入明年,我覺得’29正在成為新的’28。因此我認為你會看到焦點轉移;而我們的土地機會正好落在這種’29的開發時間框架內。這也是我們過去幾年在幕後一直努力做的事:推進這些項目。

  • I think the other thing that sometimes -- and I'll throw this a little nugget out there. I think one of the things that's a growing trend isn't that it's just new capacity additions in addition to existing contracting for capacity and energy off of existing assets, but also the opportunity to look at curtailment in terms of a PPA off of existing that can then satisfy the requirements.

    我認為另外一件有時候——我在這裡丟個小重點。我覺得一個正在成長的趨勢,不只是新增容量,並且在既有資產上持續簽訂容量與能源合約;同時也有機會從既有資產的PPA角度去看「限發(curtailment)」的可能性,進而滿足相關要求。

  • Because if you think about it, if you can curtail, aka demand response, you can provide effectively something that looks like a peaker or a battery. It's just by having net negative load at that time or negative or zero load at that time, providing that resource that then satisfies the hours that you're effectively developing a reserve margin across all of PJM 4. I think that's going to become a growing trend, and I think that's going to become -- the other growing trend is that '29 is going to be the new focus of data center development.

    因為你想想看,如果你能限發——也就是需求回應(demand response)——你就能有效提供一種看起來像尖峰機組(peaker)或電池的資源。只是透過在那個時點讓淨負載為負、或為負或為零,在那個時段提供資源,從而滿足你實際上在PJM 4整體上建立備轉裕度(reserve margin)的那些小時需求。我認為這會成為一個日益成長的趨勢;另一個成長趨勢則是,’29將成為資料中心開發的新焦點。

  • Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

    Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

  • Got it. That's very helpful there. And then maybe just, I guess, pivoting when you talk about new deals, we've only seen nuclear so far. Just wondering how you think about the potential for other resources coming forward here in the future?

    了解。這非常有幫助。那接著可能換個角度,當你談到新交易時,我們目前只看到核能。想請教你如何看待未來是否會有其他資源類型在這裡出現?

  • Mark McFarland - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mark McFarland - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • They're coming. That's how we see it. They're coming, trust me.

    它們會來的。我們就是這麼看的。它們會來的,相信我。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Jefferies.

    Julien Dumoulin-Smith,Jefferies。

  • Julien Dumoulin Smith - Analyst

    Julien Dumoulin Smith - Analyst

  • Look, maybe, Mac, you just said it yourself a second ago. Why don't we take it up a little bit on that curtailment subject because that's certainly a burgeoning subject. I'm glad to hear you talk about it. How do you think about cultivating that yourself as a business?

    聽著,也許,Mac,你剛剛自己也說到了。不如我們把「限發」這個主題再往上拉一點,因為這確實是個正在快速發展的議題。我很高興聽到你談到它。你如何看待把這件事培養成你們自身的一門業務?

  • A, we have some of your peers that have these DR businesses embedded. But what I hear you saying is this is the curtailment of the actual load site. You don't need to develop a full DR suite of capabilities, I presume. How do you think about pivoting your business to enable that kind of contracting?

    A,我們有些同業已經內建了這類DR(需求回應)業務。但我聽你在說的是對實際負載場址本身進行限發。我猜你的意思是,你不需要去開發一整套完整的DR能力組合。那你如何看待調整你們的業務,以促成這類合約模式?

  • And when you say they're coming a second ago, is that sort of the principal vector for addressing additionality that you're thinking through today? Is that, that lens for it to be that pledge?

    另外你剛才說「它們會來的」,那是否表示你目前思考用來解決「額外性(additionality)」的主要方向就是這個?也就是用這個視角來滿足那項承諾?

  • Mark McFarland - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mark McFarland - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Look, Julien, I would tell you that in addition to capacity additions, whether it be batteries, peakers, combined cycles that helps solve some of the so-called additionality requirement, which is really ill defined, by the way. But there are ratepayer protection pledges and people are thinking about how to meet some of these obligations. I think we've been talking for at least I've been mentioning this for a year that load management on the data center on the demand side needs to get better.

    聽著,Julien,我會告訴你,除了新增容量之外——不論是電池、尖峰機組(peakers)、或複循環(combined cycles)——這些都有助於解決所謂的「額外性」要求;順帶一提,那其實定義得很不清楚。但確實存在用戶費率保護的承諾(ratepayer protection pledges),大家也在思考如何履行其中一些義務。我想我們至少——我自己——已經提了一年:資料中心在需求端的負載管理需要做得更好。

  • And in the past, it was -- you pop down a data center, you took power when you needed it, you didn't take power when you didn't need it and you didn't worry about any of the rest of it. But now when you're developing gigawatt or more than in Susquehanna's case, 1.9 gigs of data center development, you need to think about your load management. And I think that, that's a growing concern. And so we are advocating, and I think we would all take the position that PJM needs to come out with a new large load demand response product that's different than what I think you were mentioning with C&I.

    過去的做法是——你把資料中心蓋下去,需要電就取電,不需要就不取電,其他事情都不用太在意。但現在當你在開發1GW甚至更多——以Susquehanna的案例來說,是1.9GW的資料中心開發——你就必須思考你的負載管理。我認為這是日益增加的關切。因此我們主張,而且我想我們都會認為,PJM需要推出一個新的「大型負載」需求回應產品,這要不同於你提到的那種C&I(商業與工業)類型。

  • The C&I type demand response stuff is stacking nickels and dimes to make a dollar. These things are dollars themselves and need to be -- need to have a different construct. They need to be paid for it. So that's the carrot as opposed to the stick of like an IRAS. You know that we were never supporters of IRAS. We talked about that. and we think that it's discriminatory and all the other pieces.

    C&I那種需求回應比較像是把零錢一點一滴堆起來湊成一塊錢。但這些(大型負載)本身就是「一塊錢」,需要——需要有不同的架構設計。他們需要因此獲得報酬。所以那是胡蘿蔔,而不是像IRAS那樣的棍子。你知道我們從來不是IRAS的支持者,我們談過這點。而且我們認為它具有歧視性以及其他各種問題。

  • But if you could voluntarily subscribe to a demand response that was equitable and fair and paid appropriately and then, I'll call it, dispatched appropriately within the response by PJM, that is a solution that can be one of the most economic to solve some of these issues with respect to reliability and the capacity market.

    但如果你能自願加入一個公平、合理、且支付適當報酬的需求回應機制,然後——我姑且這麼說——由PJM在該回應框架內以適當方式進行調度(dispatch),那就是一種解決方案;而且在可靠度與容量市場相關議題上,它可能是最具經濟性的解法之一。

  • So when Terry was talking about the capacity market reforms, one of the things we'd like to see is how does demand response fit in there. I think we started to see a rationalization of load forecast. You saw that most recently going into this auction about what the load forecast will be, what will be the requirements of the RBP, et cetera. So we're starting to get real sort of rationalized supply -- demand forecast. Now let's add load management to those demand forecasts and get real about what is the right solution there. And I think there's a growing consensus that demand response is going to solve some of these issues.

    所以當Terry在談容量市場改革時,我們希望看到的一點是:需求回應要如何被納入其中。我想我們已開始看到負載預測的合理化。你最近在這次拍賣前也看到了,關於負載預測會是多少、RBP的要求會是什麼,等等。因此我們正開始得到真正更合理化的供需預測。現在讓我們把負載管理加入那些需求預測裡,務實地面對什麼才是正確的解決方案。我認為越來越多共識是:需求回應將能解決其中一些問題。

  • But I don't think it's akin to the C&I that you described there. I think it's something different because it's much larger. It needs to be managed not real time, somewhat longer in advance. So it's either a day ahead DR or a week ahead type DR response because people need to know how to shut down a gigawatt.

    但我不認為它會像你所描述的C&I那種模式。我認為它是不同的東西,因為規模大得多。它需要的管理不是即時(real time),而是要更長的提前期。所以它可能是日前(day-ahead)的DR,或是提前一週(week-ahead)那種DR回應,因為人們需要知道要如何關掉1GW的負載。

  • So I can give you an example, like Terry and I, when we were working in ERCOT, there's a big assembly line in Fort Worth that was a big 50 megawatt. That was a big demand response asset that provided optionality. That's 50 megawatts. That was huge. Okay? We're talking gigs here and people that are managing the gigawatts or greater than gigawatts of load need to have a signal further in advance. So we're out pushing and advocating for a demand response product to be incorporated in long-term capacity reform.

    我可以舉個例子,比如 Terry 和我,當我們在 ERCOT 工作時,沃斯堡有一條大型裝配線,規模大約是 50 兆瓦。那是一個大型需量反應資產,提供了彈性選擇。那是 50 兆瓦。那非常巨大。對吧?我們談的是 GW 等級,而管理 GW 或超過 GW 負載的人,需要更提前的訊號。所以我們一直在推動並倡議,將需量反應產品納入長期容量改革。

  • Julien Dumoulin Smith - Analyst

    Julien Dumoulin Smith - Analyst

  • Yes. No, thank you for elucidating on that point because I think that's what I was trying to tease out is the difference from the new versus the old DR paradigm. If I can, just to follow up a little bit, like I'm trying to read between the lines on the leverage target. You say an ability to achieve 3.5 net leverage target by the back half of '27. I don't know if that's an incremental take on your prior commitment.

    是的。不,謝謝你把那一點講清楚,因為我想我試圖釐清的就是新的與舊的需量反應(DR)典範之間的差異。如果可以的話,我再追問一下,我試著從你們的槓桿目標字裡行間讀出一些訊息。你提到在 27 年下半年能達到 3.5 倍淨槓桿目標的能力。我不確定這是否是在你們先前承諾之上的增量說法。

  • And really, what I'm trying to get at there is how do you think about deploying the balance sheet? Obviously, we see the ASR here. But how do you think about deploying strategically? You went back to this contract by philosophy earlier. Where are we in potentially going back in and diversifying the portfolio further?

    而我真正想問的是,你們如何看待運用資產負債表?顯然,我們看到這裡有 ASR(加速股票回購)。但你們在策略上如何思考資本配置?你先前又回到「以合約為核心」的理念。我們在可能重新進場、進一步分散投資組合方面,現在處於什麼階段?

  • And again, maybe I'm trying to read too much into some of the credit commentary here, but it would seem as if there's a litany of different permutations that you could evaluate here that would diversify you in different directions from what you have today?

    再者,也許我對這裡一些信用評述解讀過多,但看起來你們可以評估的不同排列組合非常多,而這些都可能把你們從目前的狀態往不同方向做分散?

  • Terry Nutt - President

    Terry Nutt - President

  • Julien, yes, it's a good question. It's a good point. Obviously, we view the balance sheet as a key part of our strategic options, right? We've -- as we've done in the past, we've taken the opportunity to take leverage up slightly to do really accretive transactions for the business, and we'll continue to focus on it.

    Julien,是的,這是個好問題。這點提得很好。很明顯,我們把資產負債表視為我們策略選項中的關鍵部分,對吧?我們——就像過去做過的那樣——曾把槓桿稍微拉高,以進行對公司非常具增益性的交易,我們也會持續聚焦於此。

  • Our 3.5 times net leverage target is a target. Obviously, we went up a little bit above that to do this most recent acquisition. And the idea is, okay, let's get back to a level to where we can sort of redeploy it again. I think we'll always look at how to utilize that in any part of our strategic alternatives, whether it's in the M&A space or the share repurchase space or other ways to grow the business and ultimately grow free cash flow per share.

    我們 3.5 倍淨槓桿目標是一個目標值。顯然,為了完成最近這筆收購,我們曾稍微高於該水準。而想法是,好,那就回到一個我們可以再次重新部署的水準。我想我們會一直檢視如何運用它,作為任何策略替代方案的一部分——不論是在併購(M&A)領域、股票回購領域,或是其他擴大業務、最終提升每股自由現金流的方式。

  • Cole Muller - Chief Financial Officer

    Cole Muller - Chief Financial Officer

  • And Julien, just as Terry said, when we've done these -- the last two acquisitions, we've temporarily gone above the target, but with line of sight to get back down. And we meaningfully did that this quarter post the Cornerstone acquisition. The comment in the script around second half '27 is reflective of a lot of folks are going to treat the capacity monetization as short-term debt. And so as that amortizes, we'll get right back down to 3.5 times this time next year going forward.

    而且 Julien,正如 Terry 所說,當我們做這些——最近兩筆收購時——我們都曾暫時高於目標,但有明確可見的路徑把槓桿降回來。而在本季、完成 Cornerstone 收購之後,我們也實質性地做到了。講稿裡提到 27 年下半年,是反映很多人會把容量變現視為短期債務。因此隨著它攤還,我們在明年此時起往後就會回到 3.5 倍。

  • Mark McFarland - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mark McFarland - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, you just -- you were asking a question about diversification. I mean, look, we like the position we're in. Let's not forget that we sold the ERCOT assets a couple of years ago, recycled that capital into share repurchases at a time that now in hindsight, that doubled up the value that we sold those assets for. We are more than doubled, as I'm reminded here in the room.

    是的,你剛才——你在問分散化的問題。我的意思是,你看,我們喜歡我們目前所處的位置。別忘了,我們幾年前賣掉了 ERCOT 資產,把那筆資本回收後用於股票回購;事後看,那讓我們賣資產所得到的價值翻了一倍。我在這個會議室裡被提醒,我們其實是超過翻倍。

  • So I was being conservative there. But look, that -- we like the position that we've concentrated in PJM. We like the exposure to PJM. We diversified through two acquisitions of over $7 billion and toggled the balance sheet to do so, toggled equity issuance to do so. So we remain flexible across all of those things, and I think we remain disciplined with respect to maintaining our balance sheet. But at the same time, we're willing to lean in and toggle those different aspects when we find the right opportunities. And so we'll do that in the future if we find a new one, too.

    所以我剛才說得算是保守。但你看——我們喜歡我們在 PJM 的集中布局。我們喜歡對 PJM 的曝險。我們透過兩筆總額超過 70 億美元的收購做了分散,並為此調整了資產負債表、也調整了股權發行來完成。因此,我們在所有這些面向上都保持彈性,我也認為我們在維持資產負債表方面保持紀律。但同時,當我們找到合適機會時,我們也願意更積極投入,並在這些不同面向之間做切換。所以未來如果我們也找到新的機會,我們也會這麼做。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Angie Storozynski, Seaport.

    Angie Storozynski,Seaport。

  • Angie Storozynski - Analyst

    Angie Storozynski - Analyst

  • So my first question is we're hearing a lot about the return on investment for data centers and how sensitive the hyperscalers are becoming to the cost of these investments and how big a component of that is power. So we're just wondering how that is reflected in your discussions about what type of power source hyperscalers want. I mean we've all been waiting for announcements about contracts for combined cycles. Those are not coming seemingly or at least they haven't come yet. And just wonder how you're positioned vis-a-vis this new increased sensitivity on the cost side for hyperscalers?

    所以我的第一個問題是,我們聽到很多關於資料中心投資報酬率,以及超大規模業者(hyperscalers)對這些投資成本變得多麼敏感,而其中很大一部分成本來自電力。所以我們想知道,這在你們與他們討論「hyperscalers 想要哪一種電力來源」時,是如何反映出來的。我的意思是,我們都在等聯合循環機組合約的公告。但看起來那些並沒有出現,至少到目前為止還沒有。想請問,面對 hyperscalers 在成本端敏感度提高的這個新情況,你們的相對定位如何?

  • Mark McFarland - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mark McFarland - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Angie, it's Mac. That's a great question. We've always said, I think, that there's price sensitivity by the hyperscalers. A lot of people have said, well, they'll just pay anything because it's irrelevant. But we've always said that they're price sensitive. Cole has been saying that for years. And we're very much attuned to that.

    Angie,我是 Mac。這是個很好的問題。我想我們一直都說,hyperscalers 是有價格敏感度的。很多人會說,嗯,他們反正什麼都願意付,因為那不重要。但我們一直都說他們對價格很敏感。Cole 多年來一直在講這件事。而我們也非常留意這點。

  • And I think that's why when you look at some of the solutions, and I'll just go through a couple quickly. First of all, you're looking north of $120 all in a megawatt hour for a combined cycle, new combined cycle. And that -- those costs aren't going down. They keep going up anytime you read them. And so I do think -- and maybe just to mention it quickly, the demand response piece that I was articulating earlier or batteries or some other new capacity with existing gen is a much more economic solution. So we remain focused there.

    我想這也是為什麼當你看一些解決方案時——我快速講幾個。首先,如果是新的聯合循環機組,你看到的全包成本會在每兆瓦時 120 美元以上。而且——那些成本並沒有下降。你每次看到相關報導,成本都在上升。所以我確實認為——也許順帶一提,我先前闡述的需量反應部分,或是電池,或是搭配既有發電資產的其他新增容量,是更具經濟性的解決方案。因此我們仍然聚焦在那裡。

  • I think a lot of people have talked about the behind-the-meter solutions, which I do think that because of speed to power and sort of '27, '28 delivery, there's been a move into the behind the meter. But all -- every time we talk to people, there's a reason why to be grid connected. It's much more reliable. It in the long run is lower cost. And so we're focused on grid-connected front-of-the-meter solutions, providing some form of additionality either through our backlog and new capacity or in figuring out this demand response aspect of things.

    我想很多人談到表後(behind-the-meter)解決方案;我確實認為,因為「快速取得電力」以及大約在 27、28 年交付的時程因素,市場有轉向表後的趨勢。但——每次我們跟人談,都會有一個理由支持要併網(grid connected)。那可靠性高得多。長期來看成本也更低。因此我們聚焦在併網的表前(front-of-the-meter)解決方案,透過我們的在手訂單與新增容量,或是釐清需量反應這一塊,來提供某種形式的「額外性」(additionality)。

  • So I do agree with you that there's price sensitive. We've always been in that price-sensitive camp and attuned to it. And so the solutions we're providing, we think, fit within that, and that's why we've targeted them.

    所以我同意你,確實存在價格敏感度。我們一直站在「價格敏感」那一派,也一直很留意。因此我們所提供的解決方案,我們認為符合這個框架,這也是我們鎖定它們的原因。

  • Angie Storozynski - Analyst

    Angie Storozynski - Analyst

  • Great. And a little bit of a different topic. So if you're looking at power flows like exports and imports within PJM, it's pretty clear that the load growth is primarily in the Dominion zone, at least for now, and that is a zone that continues to attract more and more imports from outside of Virginia.

    很好。再換一個稍微不同的主題。所以如果你看 PJM 內部的電力潮流,例如外送與外入(exports 和 imports),很明顯負載成長主要是在 Dominion 分區,至少目前是如此,而且那個分區持續吸引越來越多來自維吉尼亞州外的外入電力。

  • So I mean, is it just that we are still waiting for these data centers to be energized in Pennsylvania and Ohio, those two states that seem to attract most debates about the power position? Or what is driving that? Again, it just feels like the import of -- into Virginia continues to grow at a pace which is just not comparable to any other state.

    所以我的意思是,是不是只是因為我們還在等賓夕法尼亞州和俄亥俄州的這些資料中心完成送電(energized)?這兩個州似乎引發了最多關於電力布局的討論。還是說是什麼因素在驅動?再說一次,感覺流入維吉尼亞州的進口電力持續以一種與其他任何州都無法相比的速度在成長。

  • Mark McFarland - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mark McFarland - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, yes, I think you're right with respect to Northern Virginia, okay, or Dominion zone. And that's where a lot of this transmission that we think is going to get built over the next couple of years will help. In fact, there's one particular line. I can't remember the name of it, Chris probably knows. But -- so -- but those projects have been started. When you drive through Loudoun County, which I did within the past year, when you go through, you'll see projects that are being completed. Those things were started a long time ago. And so that's why you see those energized.

    嗯,是的,我想你說得對,特別是就北維吉尼亞而言,好嗎,或者說 Dominion 區域。而我們認為未來幾年會建成的許多輸電設施,將在那裡提供幫助。事實上,有一條特定的線路。我想不起它的名字了,Chris 可能知道。不過——所以——但那些專案已經啟動了。你開車經過勞登郡(Loudoun County)時——我在過去一年內就去過——你會看到一些正在完工的專案。那些事情很久以前就開始了。所以你才會看到那些已經完成送電(energized)。

  • But I do think that those projects are being built in Pennsylvania. I know that when we recently -- Terry and I and Brad, our Chief Operating Officer, were recently on the road, and we went to all of our sites in Ohio. And as we drove into Columbus, you can see the data centers being built there live on the ground, just like if you look -- if you come up to Susquehanna, you can see in Berwick, you can see what's going on there. And there was just another site approved in Salem Township recently, I think last week on the 28 or something like that.

    但我確實認為那些專案也正在賓夕法尼亞州建設中。我知道我們最近——Terry、我以及我們的營運長 Brad——最近在外出差,我們去了俄亥俄州所有的據點。當我們開進哥倫布(Columbus)時,你可以在現場看到資料中心正在興建,就像你如果去看——如果你到 Susquehanna,你在 Berwick 也能看到那裡正在發生的事情。而且最近在 Salem Township 又核准了另一個據點,我想是上週 28 號左右之類的。

  • So they're coming. It's just that I think Northern Virginia had a head start and they're just completing projects. I think Columbus and the surrounding areas in Ohio have a head start and they're completing projects. And so those will be energized just like the AWS contract. So I think that you're right with respect to Loudoun County, but I also think they're coming in Ohio, and I think they're coming in Pennsylvania.

    所以它們正在來。只是我認為北維吉尼亞起步較早,他們只是正在完成專案。我認為俄亥俄州的哥倫布及周邊地區也起步較早,他們正在完成專案。因此那些也會完成送電(energized),就像 AWS 的合約一樣。所以我認為你對勞登郡的看法是對的,但我也認為俄亥俄州那邊正在來,我也認為賓夕法尼亞州那邊正在來。

  • Terry Nutt - President

    Terry Nutt - President

  • Yes. And Angie, maybe to add to Mac's comments on that. I think the other thing that we see is when you look at interconnection, which once again goes back to a key that the hyperscalers and the developers want, you get into some zones like Dominion where the transmission build-out is there's just not a lot of ability to do anymore.

    是的。而且 Angie,或許補充一下 Mac 對此的評論。我認為我們看到的另一件事是,當你看併網(interconnection)時——這再次回到超大規模業者(hyperscalers)和開發商想要的關鍵——你進入像 Dominion 這樣的區域時,輸電擴建已經幾乎沒有太多能力再做更多了。

  • But then you take a look at PPL and different zones like AEP, and they've got the ability to build out more transmission PPL, for example, already has done that, which is why you see a lot more focus in that market because there is the ability to get connected to the grid faster for reliability.

    但接著你看看 PPL,以及像 AEP 這樣的不同區域,他們還有能力擴建更多輸電。以 PPL 為例,他們其實已經做了,這也是為什麼你會看到市場焦點更多轉向那裡,因為在可靠性需求下,能更快接入電網。

  • So we think that, that advantages the grid and advantages the assets that we have there, and that's why we expect to see more load growth. And obviously, we've got materials in the slides that show the projections for those two zones over the next several years, and we continue to have a strong belief that it will accelerate.

    所以我們認為,這對電網有利,也對我們在那裡擁有的資產有利,這就是為什麼我們預期會看到更多負載成長。而且很明顯地,我們在投影片裡有材料顯示未來幾年這兩個區域的預測,我們仍然強烈相信它會加速。

  • Angie Storozynski - Analyst

    Angie Storozynski - Analyst

  • Yes. And just one other question, completely unrelated. If you guys could explain to us what are -- how do we actually understand the uprates of gas plants? Because I think we're all used to like very small capacity increases like anywhere between 3% to 5%. We see them being pursued, for example, by Capital Power on some of the assets that they recently acquired. So when you guys talk about upgrades of your assets, what kind of a percentage of the installed capacity are we talking about as a potential increase? And what do they entail?

    是的。還有另一個完全無關的問題。如果你們能向我們解釋一下,我們到底該如何理解燃氣電廠的增容(uprates)?因為我想我們都習慣於非常小幅的容量提升,大概在 3% 到 5% 之間。例如,我們看到 Capital Power 在他們最近收購的一些資產上也在推動這些增容。所以當你們談到對你們資產的升級時,我們談的是已裝置容量的百分之多少,作為潛在的增幅?以及它們包含哪些內容?

  • Cole Muller - Chief Financial Officer

    Cole Muller - Chief Financial Officer

  • Angie, it's Cole. Look, as you said, there's a lot of different upgrade opportunities across the asset base, not just ours. Obviously, there's nuclear upgrades. We've said we've done the larger ones. And so we have a relatively small number of upgrades at -- on the gas side, combined cycles, depending on the vintage, have different upgrade capabilities, and they're all in different stages of that. So there's not one percentage.

    Angie,我是 Cole。你看,正如你所說,在整個資產基礎上有很多不同的升級機會,不只是我們的。很明顯也有核能的升級。我們也說過我們已經做了較大型的那些。因此在燃氣端,我們可做的升級數量相對較少;複循環機組(combined cycles)依其機齡(vintage)不同,具備不同的升級能力,而且它們都處於不同階段。所以沒有單一的一個百分比。

  • There's also opportunities to convert simple cycle to combined cycle. Those have meaningful larger percentages because you're kind of, let's call it, just doubling the size there, rough numbers. So we're evaluating all those opportunities and think that there's attractive opportunities to do those on a cost-effective basis relative to new build and also from a time frame standpoint on the execution front. So.

    另外也有把簡循環(simple cycle)轉成複循環(combined cycle)的機會。那種的百分比提升就會大得多,因為你等於——我們姑且說——大致上把規模翻倍,粗略來看是這樣。所以我們正在評估所有這些機會,並認為相較於新建機組,這些在成本效益上很有吸引力,而且在執行時程上也更具優勢。所以。

  • Mark McFarland - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mark McFarland - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Look, Angie, we have a couple of hundred megawatts or more across our fleet. And you're right, when it comes to the gas plants, particularly when you go back to the F frames, you're talking about doing these -- I think we're 0.04s right now, and there's a 0.05 upgrade and you get those smaller percentages. But those come around like every three to five years from GE to upgrade and squeeze more megawatts out. So those are the kind of upgrades that you're looking at. That's absolutely right.

    你看,Angie,我們整個機組群(fleet)加總起來有幾百兆瓦甚至更多的增量空間。而你說得對,談到燃氣電廠,特別是回到 F 級機型(F frames)時,你談的是做這些——我想我們現在是 0.04,然後有一個 0.05 的升級,於是你得到的是較小的百分比提升。但 GE 大概每三到五年就會推出一次這類升級,讓你能再擠出更多兆瓦。所以你看的就是這類型的升級。完全正確。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This does conclude today's Q&A session. I would like to turn the call back to Mac for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

    今天的問答環節到此結束。我想把電話會議交回給 Mac 做結語。請開始。

  • Mark McFarland - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mark McFarland - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Great. Thank you. Thanks, everyone, for joining us, and I appreciate your interest in Talen. We've got a bright future ahead of us, and we look forward to continue to execute. Thanks again. Take care.

    很好。謝謝。感謝各位參與,也感謝大家對 Talen 的關注。我們的未來一片光明,我們也期待持續落實執行。再次感謝。保重。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This concludes today's program. Thank you so much for joining. You may now disconnect.

    謝謝。今天的節目到此結束。非常感謝各位參與。您現在可以掛線。