TreeHouse Foods Inc (THS) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the TreeHouse Foods' Fourth Quarter 2022 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

歡迎來到 TreeHouse Foods 2022 年第四季度電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to TreeHouse Foods for the reading of the safe harbor statement.

此時，我想將電話轉給 TreeHouse Foods 以宣讀安全港聲明。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. Earlier this morning, we issued our earnings release and posted our earnings deck, both of which are available within the Investor Relations section of our website at treehousefoods.com.

早上好，感謝您今天加入我們。今天早上早些時候，我們發布了收益報告並發布了我們的收益平台，兩者都可以在我們網站 treehousefoods.com 的投資者關係部分找到。

Before we begin, we'd like to advise you that all forward-looking statements made on today's call are intended to fall within the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are based on current expectations and projections and involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from our forward-looking statements. Information concerning those risks is contained in the company's filings with the SEC.

在我們開始之前，我們想告知您，在今天的電話會議上所做的所有前瞻性陳述都旨在符合 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》的安全港條款。這些陳述基於當前的預期和預測，並且涉及可能導致實際結果與我們的前瞻性陳述存在重大差異的風險和不確定性。有關這些風險的信息包含在公司提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中。

On October 3, 2022, we completed the divestiture of a significant portion of our meal preparation business. As such, we'll be discussing our results on an adjusted continuing operations basis. A reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to their most direct comparable GAAP measures can be found in the release and the appendix of today's earnings deck.

2022 年 10 月 3 日，我們完成了大部分膳食準備業務的剝離。因此，我們將在調整後的持續經營基礎上討論我們的結果。非 GAAP 措施與其最直接的可比 GAAP 措施的對賬可以在今天的收益平台的發布和附錄中找到。

With that, let me now turn the call over to our CEO and President, Mr. Steve Oakland.

有了這個，現在讓我把電話轉給我們的首席執行官兼總裁史蒂夫奧克蘭先生。

Thank you, P.I., and thank you all for joining us today. I'm pleased to be here to report our progress on the strategic transformation of TreeHouse, starting with our strong fourth quarter and continuing in our outlook for 2023 and beyond.

謝謝你，P.I.，感謝大家今天加入我們。我很高興能在這里報告我們在 TreeHouse 戰略轉型方面的進展，從我們強勁的第四季度開始，並繼續展望 2023 年及以後。

On Slide 3, we've shared the key messages that I'd like you to take away from today's call. First, we've accomplished a great deal in 2022, reaching a major strategic milestone in early October by divesting a significant portion of our Meal Prep business at a compelling valuation. We reshaped our portfolio, sharpening our focus as a higher growth -- higher margin private label snacking and beverage business. This will enable us to improve the consistency of our execution and our results.

在幻燈片 3 上，我們分享了我希望您從今天的電話中帶走的關鍵信息。首先，我們在 2022 年取得了巨大成就，在 10 月初以極具吸引力的估值剝離了我們的大部分膳食準備業務，從而達到了一個重要的戰略里程碑。我們重塑了我們的投資組合，將我們的重點放在更高增長——更高利潤的自有品牌零食和飲料業務上。這將使我們能夠提高執行和結果的一致性。

Second, our fourth quarter results are evidence of this improved execution as we outperformed the broader private label market in terms of unit growth across our core retail business.

其次，我們第四季度的業績證明了執行力的提高，因為我們在核心零售業務的單位增長方面優於更廣泛的自有品牌市場。

Third, our guidance for 2023 reflects the compelling opportunity we expect to capture as a new TreeHouse, including top line growth of 6% to 8% and significant profit improvement, with adjusted EBITDA expected to be in the range of $345 million to $365 million. This represents a year-over-year growth rate of approximately 24% at the midpoint.

第三，我們對 2023 年的指導反映了我們希望作為新 TreeHouse 抓住的令人信服的機會，包括 6% 至 8% 的收入增長和顯著的利潤改善，調整後的 EBITDA 預計在 3.45 億美元至 3.65 億美元之間。這代表中點的同比增長率約為 24%。

Fourth, we have a clear purpose and strategic ambition to drive long-term growth across private label snacking and beverages. We believe that, beginning in 2024, we can grow revenue 3% to 5% and adjusted EBITDA 8% to 10% on an annual basis based on the portfolio as it's constructed today and deliver free cash flow of at least $200 million for the next 3-plus years. We have the right team in place and our portfolio has never been better positioned to win and drive sustainable growth and shareholder value.

第四，我們有明確的目標和戰略目標來推動自有品牌零食和飲料的長期增長。我們相信，從 2024 年開始，我們可以根據今天構建的投資組合每年將收入增長 3% 至 5%，並將 EBITDA 調整為 8% 至 10%，並為下一個項目提供至少 2 億美元的自由現金流3 年以上。我們擁有合適的團隊，我們的投資組合從未像現在這樣能夠更好地贏得和推動可持續增長和股東價值。

Let me now turn to Slide 4, which summarizes our fourth quarter results. Sales in the fourth quarter grew 22% to $996 million, driven by pricing to recover inflation. Adjusted EBITDA of $120 million was at the top end of our guidance range. Importantly, EBITDA margin of 12% represents a 320 basis point improvement on a sequential basis.

現在讓我轉到幻燈片 4，它總結了我們第四季度的業績。第四季度的銷售額增長了 22%，達到 9.96 億美元，這主要是受到定價以恢復通貨膨脹的推動。調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.2 億美元，處於我們指導範圍的上限。重要的是，12% 的 EBITDA 利潤率代表連續增長 320 個基點。

I'm very proud of our strong finish to the year, and I want to thank the entire TreeHouse organization for their hard work and dedication in making all of this happen.

我為我們今年的出色表現感到非常自豪，我要感謝整個 TreeHouse 組織為實現這一切所做的辛勤工作和奉獻。

Before I turn it over to Pat to give you more color on the quarter, I want to spend a few minutes putting our fourth quarter performance in context with the rest of the retail landscape.

在我將它交給 Pat 為您提供更多有關本季度的信息之前，我想花幾分鐘時間將我們第四季度的業績與零售業的其餘部分結合起來。

As we all know, over the past 2 years, we've seen unprecedented input cost escalation and pricing to recover that inflation. During the fourth quarter, pricing was up about 17% across the entire retail landscape as everyone has had to recover higher input costs.

眾所周知，在過去 2 年中，我們看到了前所未有的投入成本上升和定價以恢復通貨膨脹。第四季度，整個零售領域的定價上漲了約 17%，因為每個人都不得不收回更高的投入成本。

On Slide 5, we've provided a look at how volumes are faring across the industry. We use measured channel data to give you an apples-to-apples comparison. You can see total edible consumption on a unit basis declined over 3% as a result of high prices. When you move to the right, we've narrowed the data set to capture just those categories in which we operate.

在幻燈片 5 上，我們展示了整個行業的銷量情況。我們使用測得的渠道數據為您提供同類比較。你可以看到由於價格高，單位食用總消費量下降了 3% 以上。當您向右移動時，我們已經縮小了數據集的範圍，以僅捕獲我們運營的那些類別。

Units for National Brands shown by the wine-colored bar declined 5%, while private label in total, indicated in gold, outperformed and was slightly positive. TreeHouse specifically did better than that. In the fourth quarter, our units grew almost 3.5% within retail-measured channels. I'd like to point out that our unit growth for our core retail business was more than 3% in both measured and unmeasured channels. Pat will take you through the sales walk in his comments.

酒色條顯示的全國品牌銷量下降了 5%，而自有品牌的整體銷量（以金色表示）表現優於大盤，略有上漲。 TreeHouse 的表現尤其出色。第四季度，我們的單位在零售衡量渠道內增長了近 3.5%。我想指出，我們核心零售業務的單位增長率在衡量和未衡量渠道中均超過 3%。 Pat 將在他的評論中帶您完成銷售流程。

The pressure on today's consumer is significant. Shoppers are seeking value and the private label value proposition continues to gain momentum, supporting unit share gains, which we've now seen for the last 54 consecutive weeks. We continue to invest in our business to support our customers in capturing that demand.

當今消費者的壓力是巨大的。購物者正在尋求價值，自有品牌價值主張繼續獲得動力，支持單位份額增長，我們現在已經連續 54 週看到這種情況。我們繼續投資於我們的業務，以支持我們的客戶抓住這種需求。

With that, let me turn it over to Pat to take you through our fourth quarter and guidance. You'll find that the rest of our typical macro slides on shelf prices, price gaps and shopper basket are in the appendix of our deck today. I'll come back at the end to share with you how we're going to build on the progress we've made and how that translates into the long-term outlook for the business. Then, we'll open the call up to your questions. Pat?

有了這個，讓我把它交給帕特來帶你完成我們的第四季度和指導。您會發現我們今天關於貨架價格、價格差距和購物籃的其他典型宏觀幻燈片都在我們的甲板附錄中。我會在最後回來與您分享我們將如何在已經取得的進展的基礎上再接再厲，以及如何將其轉化為業務的長期前景。然後，我們將打開電話回答您的問題。拍？

Thanks, Steve, and good morning, everyone. I want to first echo my appreciation to the TreeHouse team this past year. We went through a great deal of change, and I'm proud of the company we are today.

謝謝，史蒂夫，大家早上好。我想首先對過去一年的 TreeHouse 團隊表示感謝。我們經歷了很多變化，我為我們今天的公司感到自豪。

I'll start on Slide 6. And as Steve noted earlier, fourth quarter revenue grew 22%. Pricing to recover inflation accelerated further in Q4 and was up 24.6%, reflecting our cumulative efforts to recover inflation. Volume and mix declined 2.2% in the quarter.

我將從幻燈片 6 開始。正如史蒂夫之前指出的那樣，第四季度收入增長了 22%。第四季度恢復通貨膨脹的定價進一步加速，增長了 24.6%，反映了我們為恢復通貨膨脹所做的累積努力。本季度銷量和組合下降了 2.2%。

On Slide 7, we provided a look at our case volume by channel. As Steve noted earlier, across our core retail grocery business in both measured and unmeasured channels, we delivered 3% volume growth. As a reminder, the retail grocery business represents approximately 80% of our annual revenue.

在幻燈片 7 上，我們按渠道查看了我們的案例量。正如史蒂夫之前指出的那樣，在我們衡量和未衡量渠道的核心零售雜貨業務中，我們實現了 3% 的銷量增長。提醒一下，零售雜貨業務約占我們年收入的 80%。

It's also worth noting our volume growth would have been higher had we not faced lingering supply chain and service constraints in about half of our categories. Additionally, our retail growth was offset primarily by the exit of certain co-pack and food-away-from-home volume, including the pickle business that we discussed last quarter.

同樣值得注意的是，如果我們沒有在大約一半的類別中面臨揮之不去的供應鍊和服務限制，我們的銷量增長會更高。此外，我們的零售增長主要被某些聯合包裝和外賣食品的退出所抵消，包括我們上個季度討論的泡菜業務。

Turning to Slide 8 and our profit drivers. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA totaled $120 million, which was at the top of our guidance range. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 12%, representing a sequential improvement of 320 basis points. Volume and mix, including absorption, declined $5 million in the quarter. Pricing net of commodities was positive once again, contributing $90 million versus last year, which demonstrates that our efforts to recover inflation continue to be realized.

轉向幻燈片 8 和我們的利潤驅動因素。第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 總計 1.2 億美元，處於我們指導範圍的頂部。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 12%，環比提高 320 個基點。本季度銷量和組合（包括吸收）下降了 500 萬美元。商品定價淨額再次為正，與去年相比貢獻了 9000 萬美元，這表明我們恢復通貨膨脹的努力繼續實現。

We have seen a number of the traded commodities begin to come down, but I want to highlight 2 things. First, most commodities remain at historically elevated up; and second, only about half of our basket of inputs are considered tradable. Our nontradable cost basket is comprised of hundreds of inputs, everything from labels and specialty packaging to food chemicals and foil lids. We continue to see meaningful inflation in this area.

我們已經看到許多交易商品開始下跌，但我想強調兩件事。一是大部分商品仍處於歷史高位；其次，我們一攬子投入中只有大約一半被認為是可交易的。我們的非貿易成本籃子由數百種投入組成，從標籤和特種包裝到食品化學品和鋁箔蓋，應有盡有。我們繼續看到該地區出現有意義的通脹。

Some of the inflation we are seeing in our nontraded inputs is offsetting deflation in the traded commodity. As a result, we are still taking some pricing currently, but it's much more surgical in nature.

我們在非貿易投入中看到的一些通貨膨脹正在抵消貿易商品的通貨緊縮。因此，我們目前仍在採取一些定價，但它本質上更具手術性。

The last part represents operations, which declined $35 million in the fourth quarter as we continue to mitigate supply chain disruption and invest into player retention. Our focus on TMOS, our TreeHouse management operating system, is ongoing as well as our efforts around labor stability and line reliability.

最後一部分代表運營，第四季度運營減少了 3500 萬美元，因為我們繼續緩解供應鏈中斷並投資於玩家保留。我們一直在關注 TMOS，我們的 TreeHouse 管理操作系統，以及我們在勞動力穩定性和生產線可靠性方面的努力。

In the fourth quarter, we continue to make progress on our service levels across the network and delivered more than 100 basis points improvement sequentially with about half of our categories near target service level.

在第四季度，我們繼續在整個網絡的服務水平上取得進展，並連續改進了 100 多個基點，我們大約一半的類別接近目標服務水平。

Slide 9 demonstrates both the progress we've made in paying down debt over the last 3 years, including a significant reduction in Q4 when we used the divestiture proceeds to pay down $500 million in October. We ended the year with covenant leverage of 3.2x, in line with our range of 3 to 3.5x and liquidity of more than $500 million.

幻燈片 9 展示了過去 3 年我們在償還債務方面取得的進展，包括我們在 10 月份使用資產剝離收益償還 5 億美元時第四季度的大幅減少。我們以 3.2 倍的契約槓桿率結束了這一年，符合我們 3 到 3.5 倍的範圍和超過 5 億美元的流動性。

Turning now to our 2023 guidance on Slide 10. We expect to grow sales by 6% to 8% in 2023, driven by pricing as we lap the actions we took to recover inflation last year. The impact of the pricing ramp will be most prominent in the first half of the year.

現在轉向我們在幻燈片 10 上的 2023 年指導。我們預計 2023 年的銷售額將增長 6% 至 8%，這是在定價的推動下，因為我們採取了去年為恢復通貨膨脹而採取的行動。價格上漲的影響將在今年上半年最為突出。

You'll recall that pricing to recover inflation was affected in late March, July and late September of 2022. Our guidance assumes that volumes will be flat this year. As I mentioned, about half of our categories are back to target levels of service. We continue to face constraints in certain categories like cookies, creamer and single-serve beverages. We're working diligently to resolve our supply chain challenges. And by the end of this year, we expect most of our categories to be very close to our target service level of 98%.

您會記得，恢復通貨膨脹的定價在 2022 年 3 月下旬、7 月下旬和 9 月下旬受到影響。我們的指導假設今年的銷量將持平。正如我所提到的，我們大約一半的類別都回到了目標服務水平。我們繼續面臨某些類別的限制，例如餅乾、奶精和單杯飲料。我們正在努力解決我們的供應鏈挑戰。到今年年底，我們預計我們的大部分類別都非常接近我們 98% 的目標服務水平。

Adjusted EBITDA is projected to be between $345 million to $365 million, which, at the midpoint, represents a year-over-year increase of 24%. The key drivers are pricing and supply chain initiatives as we continue to drive TMOS and continuous improvement. We expect net interest to be between $20 million and $25 million in 2023, reflecting the benefit of approximately $45 million in income, primarily related to interest on the note receivable.

調整後的 EBITDA 預計在 3.45 億美元至 3.65 億美元之間，按中間值計算，同比增長 24%。隨著我們繼續推動 TMOS 和持續改進，關鍵驅動因素是定價和供應鏈計劃。我們預計 2023 年淨利息將在 2000 萬美元至 2500 萬美元之間，反映出約 4500 萬美元的收入收益，主要與應收票據利息有關。

Interest expense will be very similar to 2022 between $65 million and $70 million. Recall that the financial statements we provided back in November were recast to remove the impact of the divested business and factor in the use of cash proceeds to reduce debt.

利息支出將與 2022 年非常相似，在 6500 萬美元到 7000 萬美元之間。回想一下，我們在 11 月份提供的財務報表經過重新編制，以消除剝離業務的影響以及使用現金收益減少債務的因素。

CapEx is estimated to be about $130 million in 2023. This year, approximately half of our spending will be focused on growth and supply chain initiatives, in areas such as capacity expansion and innovation capabilities. The other half will be focused on infrastructure and maintenance. In total, our 2023 spending is anticipated to be at the high end of our long-term range of 3% to 3.5% of sales as we have a number of locations that require upgrades and investments in equipment that will ultimately improve line reliability and efficiency.

2023 年的資本支出估計約為 1.3 億美元。今年，我們大約一半的支出將集中在產能擴張和創新能力等領域的增長和供應鏈計劃上。另一半將專注於基礎設施和維護。總的來說，我們 2023 年的支出預計將處於銷售額的 3% 至 3.5% 的長期範圍的高端，因為我們有許多地點需要升級和設備投資，最終將提高生產線的可靠性和效率.

Specific to the first quarter, we are guiding to growth of 9% to 12% on the top line and adjusted EBITDA margin improvement of 300 to 450 basis points on a year-over-year basis.

具體到第一季度，我們指導收入增長 9% 至 12%，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率同比提高 300 至 450 個基點。

With that, I'll turn it back to Steve for closing comments. Steve?

有了這個，我會把它轉回給史蒂夫結束評論。史蒂夫？

Thanks, Pat. As we begin 2023, we continue to see a macro environment that supports private label growth. That, coupled with our improving service levels and our investments in capacity, support our guidance for growth, both short term and long term. I'm excited about the direction we're heading and our journey as a more focused private label snacking and beverage company.

謝謝，帕特。 2023 年伊始，我們繼續看到支持自有品牌增長的宏觀環境。再加上我們不斷提高的服務水平和產能投資，支持我們對短期和長期增長的指導。我對我們前進的方向以及我們作為一家更專注的自有品牌零食和飲料公司的旅程感到興奮。

Last fall, we shared with you our new purpose statement, shown on Slide 11, to engage and delight one customer at a time. Our strategic ambition is profitable growth, driven by leadership in consumer trending categories. Beyond the 2023 guidance Pat discussed earlier, we believe that over the next 3 years plus, we can deliver annual growth of 3% to 5% revenue, 8% to 10% in adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow of at least $200 million. We're confident we can deliver that level of growth because we have a clear purpose, ambition and strategy attached to a solid portfolio of categories.

去年秋天，我們與您分享了幻燈片 11 中顯示的新目標聲明，即一次吸引和取悅一位客戶。我們的戰略目標是在消費趨勢類別的領導地位的推動下實現盈利增長。除了帕特之前討論的 2023 年指導方針之外，我們相信在未來 3 年多的時間裡，我們可以實現 3% 至 5% 的收入年增長率、8% 至 10% 的調整後 EBITDA 和至少 2 億美元的自由現金流。我們有信心能夠實現這種增長水平，因為我們有明確的目標、雄心和戰略，並與堅實的類別組合相聯繫。

Those of you who have followed the company for some time know that for the last several years, we've rallied around operational and commercial excellence, portfolio optimization and people and talent. These tenets continue to ring true to our priorities. And as a new TreeHouse, we've sharpened and refined our strategic growth pillars to better reflect how we will engage and delight our stakeholders.

關注公司一段時間的人都知道，在過去的幾年裡，我們圍繞卓越運營和商業、投資組合優化以及人員和人才進行了集會。這些原則繼續符合我們的優先事項。作為一個新的 TreeHouse，我們已經加強和完善了我們的戰略增長支柱，以更好地反映我們將如何吸引和取悅我們的利益相關者。

As the supply chain for our retail partners, our resources support the nation's biggest and best retailer brands. Leveraging our work and operational excellence, we are now building a world-class supply chain. This requires investments in talent and technology. It includes an ongoing commitment to TMOS and continuous improvement applied to both manufacturing and to our distribution network with a greater customer centricity in mind.

作為我們零售合作夥伴的供應鏈，我們的資源支持美國最大和最好的零售商品牌。憑藉我們的工作和卓越運營，我們正在打造世界一流的供應鏈。這需要對人才和技術進行投資。它包括對 TMOS 的持續承諾以及對製造和我們的分銷網絡的持續改進，並牢記以客戶為中心。

The sale of a significant portion of Meal Prep enabled us to better optimize our portfolio and strengthen our balance sheet. Today, we are a higher-growth, higher-margin business focused on private label snacking and beverages. We will drive profitable growth through category leadership and investment in capabilities.

出售大部分 Meal Prep 使我們能夠更好地優化我們的產品組合併加強我們的資產負債表。今天，我們是一家增長更快、利潤更高的企業，專注於自有品牌零食和飲料。我們將通過類別領導和能力投資推動盈利增長。

We've talked in the past about how we outperform in categories where we have competitive advantage, defined by a leadership position and having depth. Depth can mean different things in different categories, but it's essentially having the right capabilities, capacity and geographical reach to drive mutually profitable growth for our customers and for TreeHouse.

我們過去曾討論過我們如何在我們具有競爭優勢的類別中表現出色，這些優勢由領導地位和深度來定義。深度在不同的類別中可能意味著不同的東西，但它本質上具有正確的能力、容量和地理範圍，以推動我們的客戶和 TreeHouse 的互利增長。

We're at a pivot point in our strategic journey rather than prioritize free cash flow to pay down debt as we have for the last several years. Today, our balance sheet is strong. We will generate healthy free cash flow to invest in our business and build our capabilities, which will be key to our success, which leads me to strategic customer partnerships.

我們正處於戰略旅程的關鍵點，而不是像過去幾年那樣優先考慮自由現金流來償還債務。今天，我們的資產負債表很強勁。我們將產生健康的自由現金流來投資我們的業務並建立我們的能力，這將是我們成功的關鍵，這將引導我建立戰略客戶合作夥伴關係。

We've come a long way toward driving commercial excellence since I first arrived. Today, we are building on our collaborative efforts and taking it to the next level for key customers, with whom we have strong alignment and growth prospects. We're going beyond simply the fundamentals to create a more true partnership, joint business planning, innovation solutions, leadership engagement, and long-term agreements are all part of this journey.

自從我剛到這里以來，我們在推動商業卓越方面取得了長足的進步。今天，我們正在加強我們的合作努力，並將其提升到一個新的水平，為主要客戶服務，我們與他們有很強的一致性和增長前景。我們將超越簡單的基礎，建立更真實的合作夥伴關係，聯合業務規劃、創新解決方案、領導參與和長期協議都是這一旅程的一部分。

Finally, people and talent continue to be the heart of our organization. We strive to be a talent leader and to be seen as the employer of choice in the markets in which we operate. We're doing that by better defining career paths, harmonizing and modernizing targets and rewards and through employee engagement.

最後，人和人才仍然是我們組織的核心。我們努力成為人才領導者，並在我們經營的市場中被視為首選雇主。我們通過更好地定義職業道路、協調和現代化目標和獎勵以及通過員工參與來做到這一點。

I'm confident that we have the right team, priorities and investments in place, and we're in the right categories to drive sustainable revenue and profitability growth and long-term value creation for our stakeholders.

我相信我們擁有合適的團隊、優先事項和投資，而且我們處於正確的類別中，可以推動可持續的收入和盈利增長，並為我們的利益相關者創造長期價值。

With that, let's open the call up to your questions. Operator?

有了這個，讓我們打開你的問題的電話。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Andrew Lazar from Barclays.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Andrew Lazar。

To start off, I think on the third quarter call, Steve, you identified 2 sort of large buckets of impacts, right, between where you would end up this year or where you would end up 22 EBITDA and what you see as sort of your normalized EBITDA range going forward, right? One was PNOC and then one was some of the supply chain disruption.

首先，我認為在第三季度的電話會議上，史蒂夫，你確定了 2 類大的影響，正確的，在你今年結束的地方或你將結束 22 EBITDA 的地方和你所看到的那種正常化的 EBITDA 範圍向前發展，對嗎？一個是 PNOC，另一個是供應鏈中斷。

So PNOC has now been positive, right, for 2 quarters in a row, as pricing is catching up, obviously making really good progress there. So I guess my question is how much of the -- I think it was $40 million in supply chain impacts. Do you think you can recover in '23 specifically, that kind of underpins your sort of guidance range? And then I just got a follow-up.

所以 PNOC 現在連續兩個季度都是積極的，因為定價正在迎頭趕上，顯然在那裡取得了非常好的進展。所以我想我的問題是有多少 - 我認為這是 4000 萬美元的供應鏈影響。您是否認為您可以在 23 年具體恢復，這支撐了您的指導範圍？然後我得到了一個跟進。

Sure. Well, I think you've seen PNOC be positive the last, like I say, 2 quarters. And I would expect that the first half of this year, right? I mean most of the pricing, we will start to lap it as we get into the back half of the year. With regard to exactly how much of the supply chain recovery, I don't think we've given that exact number. Pat, have we?

當然。好吧，我想你已經看到 PNOC 最後一個，就像我說的，兩個季度是積極的。我希望今年上半年，對嗎？我的意思是大部分定價，我們將在進入下半年時開始調整。關於供應鏈恢復的確切程度，我認為我們沒有給出確切的數字。帕特，我們有嗎？

No, we've not. I think what we're trying to suggest is we've got about half of our plants that are operating at a normalized level of service. And we expect that, that remaining half will improve over the course of the year.

不，我們沒有。我認為我們試圖建議的是，我們有大約一半的工廠以正常的服務水平運營。我們預計，剩下的一半將在今年有所改善。

We exited 2022 with about 93%, 94% service in the fourth quarter. We expect that to continue to move up as we start to do that. We're still seeing some pockets of labor challenges, a little bit of material availability and some line things, which is why you're seeing us invest in CapEx. But we're pleased with the progress in service, and we're pleased with the progress in margin that we saw.

到 2022 年，我們在第四季度以約 93%、94% 的服務結束。我們希望隨著我們開始這樣做，它會繼續上升。我們仍然看到一些勞動力挑戰、一些材料可用性和一些線路問題，這就是為什麼你看到我們投資於資本支出。但我們對服務的進步感到滿意，我們對我們看到的利潤率的進步感到滿意。

I guess we just haven't given an exact number, but Andrew, we do expect to make progress. And I think if you work through our guidance, you'll see that we have to make progress on that line in order to make the numbers we've given you. So we feel good about it.

我想我們只是沒有給出確切的數字，但是安德魯，我們確實希望取得進展。而且我認為，如果你按照我們的指導工作，你會發現我們必須在這條線上取得進展才能達到我們給你的數字。所以我們對此感覺很好。

And then I guess how much -- well, I guess what's the magnitude, even directionally, of sort of net inflation that you're expecting in '23? And how much of the pricing that you need to sort of offset that is sort of incremental from here versus the benefit from carryover actions already taken?

然後我猜想有多少 - 好吧，我猜你在 23 年預期的那種淨通貨膨脹的幅度是多少，甚至是方向性的？您需要多少定價來抵消從這裡開始的增量與已經採取的結轉行動帶來的好處？

Yes. We're sort of expecting mid-single-digit inflation as we think about what we'll experience in 2023. So nothing like what we saw over the last cycle. We have some pricing in place. And I think as we've described it, there are pockets of some deflation and then some pockets of inflation. And so we'll continue to have those kind of very back-based conversations with our customers to bring to them the total basket of goods so that they can understand what that looks like and then take pricing accordingly, as necessary.

是的。考慮到我們將在 2023 年經歷的情況，我們有點期待中個位數的通貨膨脹。所以與我們在上一個週期中看到的完全不同。我們有一些定價。我認為正如我們所描述的那樣，先是通貨緊縮，然後是通貨膨脹。因此，我們將繼續與我們的客戶進行這種非常基於後台的對話，為他們帶來一攬子商品，以便他們能夠了解它們的外觀，然後在必要時相應地進行定價。

Yes, I think your question is how much more do we have to take? A good piece of that was taken already in the month of January. And so much of that is already in.

是的，我想你的問題是我們還需要服用多少？其中很大一部分已經在一月份拍攝了。而且其中很多已經存在。

Your next question comes from the line of Rob Moskow from Credit Suisse.

你的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Rob Moskow。

I was wondering, you're going through capacity constraints at a time when the private label industry probably has a golden opportunity to grow volume. I'm sure a lot of retailers want to give it more shelf space and consumers want to trade down to it.

我想知道，在自有品牌行業可能有增加銷量的黃金機會的時候，你正在經歷產能限制。我敢肯定，很多零售商都想給它更多的貨架空間，而消費者也想低價購買它。

Do you have a sense at retail what your volume growth could have been or could be this year if you were fully up to speed? And is there a risk of losing shelf space to your competitors who might be a little farther along?

如果您完全跟上速度，您是否了解零售業今年的銷量增長情況？是否存在將貨架空間拱手讓給可能稍遠一點的競爭對手的風險？

Rob, I think Pat said a minute ago, about half of our categories are operating at the right service levels. So if you thought 1 point or 2 on half our business is probably out there to get, right, would be my guess.

Rob，我想 Pat 一分鐘前說過，我們大約一半的類別都在正確的服務水平上運營。因此，如果您認為我們業務的一半可能會獲得 1 分或 2 分，對，我的猜測是。

And my understanding -- and look, I have the benefit of top-to-tops with virtually all of our customers, our largest customers. And I think we're performing as well or better. And I think that if you take you back to Slide 5 in our deck, when you look at where private label is in macro and how we're doing, right?

我的理解 - 看，我與幾乎所有客戶，我們最大的客戶都有從頭到尾的好處。而且我認為我們的表現一樣好或更好。而且我認為，如果你帶你回到我們甲板上的幻燈片 5，當你看看自有品牌在宏觀中的位置以及我們的表現時，對吧？

So I don't think we're at risk of losing business for that reason, right? So I think we're performing and we're leveraging our scale pretty well right now. So if anything, I think we're grabbing maybe a little bit of that. In some of the dual supply customers, they're offering us an extra division or 2, that kind of thing because I think we are actually recovering faster than some of our peer set.

所以我認為我們不會因此而面臨失去業務的風險，對吧？所以我認為我們正在執行並且我們現在正在很好地利用我們的規模。因此，如果有的話，我認為我們可能抓住了其中的一點點。在一些雙重供應客戶中，他們為我們提供了一個或兩個額外的部門，這種事情是因為我認為我們實際上比我們的一些同行恢復得更快。

I can tell you, we have a full court press on. I can tell you that we're doing everything we can to get ourselves in a position to take advantage of this opportunity. And I think you're absolutely right. It's a great time for private label. right? And we're prioritizing everything -- a little bit of business we lost, Pat touched on it in his comments, the little bit of business that our national branded co-pack business that's down, we're trying to repurpose that capacity as fast as we can to private label.

我可以告訴你，我們有一個完整的法庭壓力。我可以告訴你，我們正在盡一切努力讓自己能夠利用這個機會。我認為你是絕對正確的。現在是自有品牌的好時機。正確的？我們正在優先考慮所有事情——我們失去了一點點業務，帕特在他的評論中談到了這一點，我們國家品牌聯合包裝業務的一點點業務下降了，我們正試圖盡快重新利用這些能力我們可以貼上私人標籤。

Okay. And a follow-up would be when you developed your long-term plan, 3% to 5% top line and then the 8% to 10% EBITDA margin, your capital investments, like how much capacity are you going to add to your existing footprint to deliver that 3% to 5%? And also are there productivity targets like on a percent of COGS basis that are helping you get all that margin expansion? It's a lot of margin expansion in that guide.

好的。後續行動是當你制定長期計劃時，3% 到 5% 的收入，然後是 8% 到 10% 的 EBITDA 利潤率，你的資本投資，比如你要在現有基礎上增加多少產能提供 3% 到 5% 的足跡？還有，是否有生產率目標（例如以 COGS 的百分比為基礎）幫助您實現所有利潤率增長？該指南中的邊距擴大了很多。

Yes, I would say there's both of those, Rob. The capital that we've guided to will facilitate the capacity to meet that number. We have balanced those 2 numbers. So we will have plenty of capacity to meet that growth rate. And then the capital and the TMOS work, we haven't talked a lot about TMOS, but TMOS is in its early stages, but we've got a lot of success so far. So we're very confident in the margin expansion. We can get that without taking price to the customer, I guess, is the real answer there.

是的，我會說兩者都有，羅伯。我們引導的資本將促進滿足該數字的能力。我們已經平衡了這兩個數字。因此，我們將有足夠的能力來滿足這一增長率。然後是資本和 TMOS 的工作，我們沒有談太多關於 TMOS 的事情，但 TMOS 還處於早期階段，但到目前為止我們已經取得了很多成功。所以我們對利潤率的擴張非常有信心。我想，我們可以在不向客戶定價的情況下得到它，這才是真正的答案。

Okay. The 3% to 5%, is it mostly volume embedded in that assumption? Or do you also include like a 2% kind of run rate for inflation?

好的。 3% 到 5%，是否主要包含在該假設中？或者您是否還包括 2% 的通貨膨脹運行率？

Yes, we'll have cost savings initiatives in there to help offset inflation. And that's, I think, how we've operated sort of pre the current environment. That's how we tend to work with our customers to help upset some of that.

是的，我們將有成本節約計劃來幫助抵消通貨膨脹。我認為，這就是我們在當前環境之前的運作方式。這就是我們傾向於與客戶合作以幫助解決其中一些問題的方式。

But historically -- Rob, I think what your question is historically, those categories have grown at 3% to 5%, and it's mostly volume driven a little bit of inflation.

但從歷史上看——羅布，我認為你的問題是歷史上，這些類別增長了 3% 到 5%，而且主要是數量驅動了一點通貨膨脹。

Mostly volume.

主要是體積。

Mostly volume. Yes.

主要是體積。是的。

Your next question comes from the line of Bill Chappell from Truist Securities.

你的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Bill Chappell。

First one, kind of a follow-up on pricing. What we've heard, and I think everyone's heard over the past few months is, I guess, one retailer, a couple of retailers took pricing from the manufacturers, but didn't raise it at the store level just to kind of accelerate -- or some customer traffic accelerates some private label share. Did you see that in any of your categories, and it showed is that now reversed as we moved into 2023?

第一個，有點跟進定價。我們所聽到的，我想過去幾個月每個人都聽到的是，我猜，一家零售商，幾家零售商從製造商那裡獲得了價格，但並沒有在商店層面提高價格，只是為了加速—— - 或者一些客戶流量加速了一些自有品牌份額。你有沒有在你的任何類別中看到這一點，它表明隨著我們進入 2023 年，現在情況發生了逆轉？

I would say in a macro, Bill, it's hard to say each individual item on each individual retailer. There's a couple of -- especially the hard discounters, and some of the large mass customers have been really aggressive on private label. There's no question.

我會說，比爾，在宏觀上，很難說每個零售商的每個項目。有幾個——尤其是硬折扣店，一些大客戶在自有品牌上非常積極。毫無疑問。

But I think most of our pricing has been passed through. The gaps remain healthy, but most of our pricing has been passed through. I mean there's an occasional market on an occasional item that someone gets hot, but I wouldn't say that's the norm. I think it's the exception.

但我認為我們的大部分定價已經通過。差距仍然健康，但我們的大部分定價已經通過。我的意思是偶爾會有市場上有人變熱的商品，但我不會說這是常態。我認為這是例外。

Got it. And then the second one, on Pat's commentary on the supply levels -- I mean, service levels. I was a little surprised you said they wouldn't -- expect them to be back to normal by the end of the year. That's -- I think that's still 10 months away.

知道了。然後是第二個，關於帕特對供應水平的評論——我的意思是，服務水平。我有點驚訝你說他們不會——希望他們在年底前恢復正常。那是——我認為那還有 10 個月的時間。

So I mean, is there any major obstacle/roadblocks from that happening sooner? Or maybe give a little more color of why it would take that long for everything to be back to normal?

所以我的意思是，是否有任何重大障礙/障礙會更快發生？或者可能會給出更多顏色，說明為什麼一切都需要那麼長時間才能恢復正常？

Yes. And maybe the context for that was we wouldn't expect every single plant. I don't think that, that means when you think about the fact we've got half of our plants today, we've got sort of glide paths in place across all those plants.

是的。也許這樣做的背景是我們不會期望每一株植物。我不這麼認為，這意味著當你考慮到我們今天有一半工廠的事實時，我們已經在所有這些工廠之間建立了某種滑行路徑。

And there's a handful at our challenge where we're putting in a little bit more capital or a little bit more repairs and maintenance over the course of the year to help get us to those glide paths and stabilizing some of the market so -- from a labor perspective. So I don't think that means as a totality, you wouldn't sort of wait out to an improved -- much improved service level, but it will take us probably the better part of the year to get everything fully up.

在我們面臨的挑戰中，我們在一年中投入了更多的資金或更多的維修和維護，以幫助我們走上那些下滑的道路並穩定一些市場——從勞動視角。所以我不認為這意味著總的來說，你不會等待改進 - 大大提高的服務水平，但我們可能需要一年中的大部分時間才能全面完成所有工作。

Yes. And we hold ourselves to 98.1%, which is a pretty aggressive target in private label. So I think there's a couple of places. One place we do want to touch on, I know our top line number wasn't quite what we had hoped it was going to be. I think it was solid at 22%, but not what we'd hoped.

是的。我們將自己保持在 98.1%，這在自有品牌中是一個相當激進的目標。所以我認為有幾個地方。我們確實想觸及的一個地方是，我知道我們的頂線數字並不完全像我們希望的那樣。我認為它穩定在 22%，但不是我們所希望的。

We had a couple of weather events in the fourth quarter. Obviously, we had a hurricane, which affects our pickle business and some of our other things. But we also -- we have a cookie facility in a Buffalo suburb with Tonawanda in New York. And that community got hit with what 5 and 6 feet of snow.

我們在第四季度發生了幾次天氣事件。顯然，我們遭遇了颶風，影響了我們的泡菜業務和其他一些業務。但我們也 - 我們在紐約的 Tonawanda 的布法羅郊區有一個餅乾設施。那個社區受到了 5 英尺和 6 英尺厚的雪的襲擊。

We had damage in that facility that we couldn't get fixed, and that would linger into the month of January for us. And so we've had a few things that we've got to get to, and we are in the midst of that. But there were a couple of things outside our control that hit us that maybe softened our sales number. It was not demand-driven. There was plenty of demand in the quarter. We just had a couple of categories that Mother Nature got in the way of.

我們對該設施造成了無法修復的損壞，而且對我們來說，這種損壞會持續到 1 月份。因此，我們有一些必須要做的事情，而我們正處於其中。但是有幾件我們無法控制的事情打擊了我們，這可能會削弱我們的銷售數字。它不是需求驅動的。本季度有大量需求。我們只有幾個類別，大自然母親妨礙了我們。

Got it. So you think you could be in the 70%, 80% of your business is at the service levels you want maybe by midyear? Is that realistic?

知道了。因此，您認為您可能在年中之前達到 70%、80% 的業務達到您想要的服務水平？那現實嗎？

I think that's very comfortable. Yes. We will just have 1 or 2 we think that will linger into the back half because we've got to do some physical investment in the structures, right?

我覺得那很舒服。是的。我們只會有 1 或 2 個我們認為會留在後半部分，因為我們必須對結構進行一些物理投資，對嗎？

Your next question comes from the line of Chris Growe from Stifel.

您的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Chris Growe。

Just a quick question for you on the volume. I guess just to understand, as we look ahead, should private label -- like retail volumes be growing, would you expect in 2023 away-from-home and command still be down for the year? You've got some lapping issues in there. I just want to get a sense of how that composition might break out.

只是一個關於音量的快速問題。我想只是為了理解，當我們展望未來時，如果自有品牌——就像零售量一樣增長，你是否預計到 2023 年外出和指揮仍然會下降？你那裡有一些研磨問題。我只是想了解一下這種組合可能會如何爆發。

Yes, Chris, I think we've talked a little bit about the pickle business in particular. We will lap that for a couple more quarters. So I do think you'll see that at least through the first half. And then I do think we saw just some general food away-from-home softness in a few categories as folks have changed some of their consumption from that perspective. So that was maybe less significant than the business that we exited, but we did see a little bit of that. So we are anticipating that to continue for a little bit.

是的，克里斯，我想我們已經特別討論了泡菜業務。我們將把它再用幾個季度。所以我認為你至少會在上半年看到這一點。然後我確實認為我們在幾個類別中看到了一些一般的外出食品柔軟度，因為人們已經從這個角度改變了他們的一些消費。所以這可能不如我們退出的業務重要，但我們確實看到了一點。所以我們預計這種情況會持續一段時間。

Yes. And Chris, our co-man volume, like most, is branded, in some cases, super premium brands, right, which are getting hit pretty hard. I would say though, if we guided our units to flat, if you go back to slide, well, I think it's what's Slide 5 in our deck, it suggests that our core retail business has to grow nicely, right, low single digits in order for that to happen. So we expect our core retail business to grow this year nicely in units. And that will be leverageable. That's why we can guide the kind of margin performance that we're guiding.

是的。和克里斯一樣，我們的合作夥伴數量與大多數品牌一樣，在某些情況下是超高端品牌，對吧，這些品牌受到了相當大的打擊。我想說的是，如果我們引導我們的單位持平，如果你回到幻燈片，好吧，我認為這就是我們甲板上的幻燈片 5，這表明我們的核心零售業務必須很好地增長，正確的，低個位數為了讓那發生。因此，我們預計我們的核心零售業務今年將在單位方面實現良好增長。這將是可以利用的。這就是為什麼我們可以指導我們正在指導的那種保證金表現。

Okay. And then just a final question, if I could. And with the balance sheet now in a much better place, you're holding that notes that could make the balance sheet look even better. You're quickly in a better position. So when you talk about investing in the business, Steve, or improving capabilities, how much of that is an internal comment? How much of that is an ability to acquire now if that's an opportunity to help kind of fast-forward some of that action?

好的。然後是最後一個問題，如果可以的話。隨著資產負債表現在處於一個更好的位置，你持有的票據可以使資產負債表看起來更好。您很快就會處於更好的位置。所以當你談到投資業務，史蒂夫，或提高能力時，有多少是內部評論？如果這是一個幫助快進某些行動的機會，那麼現在獲得的能力有多少？

Chris, thank you. Yes, we feel really good about the opportunities in our business, right? And -- so I think, first of all, we've looked internally, and we think there's an opportunity to invest in capability internally. And I think Rob asked the question on capacity for the future to fund all this growth -- to fund the growth we're missing right now.

克里斯，謝謝你。是的，我們對業務中的機會感到非常滿意，對嗎？而且 - 所以我認為，首先，我們已經在內部進行了研究，我們認為有機會在內部投資能力。而且我認為 Rob 問了一個關於未來為所有這些增長提供資金的能力的問題——為我們現在缺少的增長提供資金。

So I think it will focus internally. If we have the chance to buy that capacity, and I would say assets, capabilities, we would do that if that can accelerate the path, right? I think acquisition for us would be capability-driven, not necessarily new businesses, not adjacencies, those things that we've done in the past. It would all be about -- we think we're in a great group of categories. We just need to be able to sell more, the demand is there. So if the assets are there, we'll use M&A to do it. And there's a couple of places I think you may see us do that.

所以我認為它會集中在內部。如果我們有機會購買這種能力，我會說資產、能力，如果這可以加速這條道路，我們就會這樣做，對嗎？我認為我們的收購將是能力驅動的，不一定是新業務，也不是我們過去做過的鄰接業務。這一切都是關於——我們認為我們屬於一大類。我們只需要能夠賣出更多，需求就在那裡。因此，如果資產在那裡，我們將使用併購來實現。我認為您可能會在幾個地方看到我們這樣做。

Your next question comes from the line of Connor Rattigan from Consumer Edge Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Consumer Edge Research 的 Connor Rattigan。

So in this slide, I think it was Slide 15, where you showed the price gaps versus national brands. It looks like the price gap expanded somewhat in November, but then contracted again in December. And it sits roughly where it was at last year. Just kind of curious how that looks in January.

所以在這張幻燈片中，我認為是第 15 張幻燈片，您在其中展示了與國內品牌的價格差距。看起來價差在 11 月有所擴大，但在 12 月再次收縮。它大致與去年持平。只是有點好奇一月份的情況。

So in the IRR data that we see, it seems that this private label pricing is running somewhat ahead of branded on a year-over-year basis and look to your categories. And so that was somewhat seem to imply a narrowing price gap? And I guess just is there any concern that a narrowing price gap may lead to moderating private label share gains?

因此，在我們看到的 IRR 數據中，似乎這種自有品牌定價在同比基礎上略高於品牌定價，並著眼於您的類別。所以這似乎在某種程度上暗示著價格差距正在縮小？我想是否有人擔心縮小的價格差距可能會導致自有品牌份額增長放緩？

I'd say a couple of things. Let me step back and talk about December. For us to have the kind of fourth quarter we had in a good, solid December, December is a very much a national brand month. And like you say, it fell back to where it normally is.

我想說幾件事。讓我退一步談談十二月。對我們來說，第四季度是我們在 12 月的良好、穩健的表現，12 月是一個非常具有民族品牌意義的月份。就像你說的，它回到了正常的位置。

When people entertain for the holidays, people lean in, right? So it's not uncommon for the month of December, specifically in November, for Thanksgiving to have stronger branded shares, right? So if you go back and look at our business over time, you see that, right?

當人們為假期招待客人時，人們會前傾，對吧？因此，在 12 月份，特別是在 11 月份，感恩節擁有更強的品牌份額並不少見，對吧？所以，如果你回頭看看我們的業務，你會發現，對吧？

So we performed as we expected. We performed over the holidays and had a good solid fourth quarter. No, I would suggest that our volume trends, and we obviously have access to many of our retailer's daily scanner data, right, and weekly scanner data. Our volumes are not slowing down based on price cap. So that has not impacted our demand signal yet.

所以我們的表現符合我們的預期。我們在假期裡表現出色，第四季度表現良好。不，我建議我們的數量趨勢，我們顯然可以訪問我們零售商的許多每日掃描儀數據，正確的和每週掃描儀數據。我們的銷量並沒有因為價格上限而放緩。所以這還沒有影響我們的需求信號。

That's great. And then just one quick follow-up on service levels also. So if I recall, service levels last quarter were around -- up around 93%. And I think you guys quantified about 96% in October. And -- so with the 100 basis point sequential increase, so was that number sequentially increasing to 94%? And so if so, it sounds like service levels worsened somewhat in November and December. Is that right?

那太棒了。然後只是對服務水平的快速跟進。因此，如果我記得的話，上個季度的服務水平大約是——上升了 93% 左右。我認為你們在 10 月份量化了大約 96%。而且 - 那麼隨著 100 個基點的連續增加，這個數字是否連續增加到 94%？如果是這樣的話，聽起來服務水平在 11 月和 12 月有所惡化。是對的嗎？

Yes, I think we had a solid month in October, and we did sort of land at about 94%. I think some of the things that Steve described earlier in terms of some of the weather events and the like are probably what dampened that a bit as we sort of exited the year.

是的，我認為我們在 10 月份度過了一個穩定的月份，我們的土地使用率約為 94%。我認為史蒂夫之前就一些天氣事件等所描述的一些事情可能會在我們退出這一年時稍微抑制它。

Your next question comes from the line of Rob Dickerson from Jefferies.

您的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Rob Dickerson。

Just a couple of questions. I guess first question, kind of more broadly speaking, just given kind of the macro backdrop where the consumer is and all the pricing taken, especially on the branded side. Do you -- is a sense here, right? I mean the operating environment is obviously in a great spot for you on the private label side, but let's just say we don't really see a lot of branded deflation.

只是幾個問題。我想第一個問題，更廣泛地說，只是考慮到消費者所在的宏觀背景以及所有定價，尤其是在品牌方面。你 - 在這裡有感覺，對嗎？我的意思是，在自有品牌方面，運營環境顯然對你來說是個好地方，但我們只是說我們並沒有真正看到很多品牌通貨緊縮。

Like would you say that over the next 3 years, just given your guiding at this point, that you believe maybe you were entering some sort of beneficial cycle that could be a little longer term, just given kind of where the price deltas are and given elevated absolute prices on the branded side? That's the first question.

就像你說的那樣，在接下來的 3 年裡，根據你在這一點上的指導，你相信你可能正在進入某種有利的周期，這個週期可能會更長一些，只要考慮到價格增量的位置並給出品牌方面的絕對價格升高？這是第一個問題。

Rob, I would say we guided based on a much more historic level. I think you're right, these are different times, right? The absolute price gap -- we're looking at percentage price gaps, but that absolute penny gap is high.

Rob，我想說我們是根據更具歷史意義的水平進行指導的。我認為你是對的，現在是不同的時代，對吧？絕對價格差距——我們正在研究百分比價格差距，但絕對的一分錢差距很高。

So if that when things normalize, could that drive more private label adoption? We'll see. I think -- and I've said this a number of times, I think private label is positioned, and I had a conversation on Friday, frankly, to put one of our largest customers. And they're convinced that their private label assortment, quality and presentations the best it's ever been.

那麼，如果當事情正常化時，是否會推動更多自有品牌的採用？我們拭目以待。我想——我已經說過很多次了，我認為自有品牌的定位，坦率地說，我在周五進行了一次談話，把我們最大的客戶之一。他們確信他們的自有品牌產品種類、質量和展示是有史以來最好的。

So I think time will tell, right? I think, though, if we can get back to historic growth rates, we build a hell of a TreeHouse, right? If it gets better than that, that would be great. But I don't think we need that to happen for us to execute the way we've guided.

所以我認為時間會證明一切，對吧？不過，我認為，如果我們能夠恢復到歷史增長率，我們就會建造一個地獄般的樹屋，對吧？如果它比那更好，那就太好了。但我認為我們不需要發生這種情況來執行我們指導的方式。

Okay. Fair enough. And then just on the longer-term plan, obviously, ongoing implied margin expansion year-over-year. I think I heard you say earlier kind of ongoing productivity measures. Obviously, pricing catches up this year and then supply chain improvements.

好的。很公平。然後就長期計劃而言，顯然，持續的隱含利潤率同比增長。我想我聽到你說的是早期的持續生產力措施。顯然，今年定價趕上來，然後是供應鏈改進。

At the same time, if you're looking forward, I guess, this is implied through at least 2026. So you definitely have some sense of conviction, right, on your ability to continue to increase those margins. Is there anything else in there? Is this -- is there a mix impact? Do you kind of have visibility or maybe some of the forthcoming innovation? Because if we assume, it is mostly volume-driven kind of in the out year, then it would seem like there's got to be some mix component and maybe some volume leverage as well. And then a quick follow-up.

與此同時，如果你向前看，我想這至少暗示到 2026 年。所以你肯定對你繼續增加這些利潤率的能力有一定的信心，對吧。裡面還有別的東西嗎？這是——有混合影響嗎？您是否有知名度或即將推出的一些創新？因為如果我們假設，它在過去的一年中主要是數量驅動的，那麼似乎必須有一些混合成分，也許還有一些數量槓桿。然後快速跟進。

Yes, Rob, this is Pat. I think there's -- as we think about -- Steve laid out the elements of our strategy and strategic customer partnerships and trying to grow with those customers that are growing private label. I mean that is the trucks of the strategy.

是的，羅伯，這是帕特。我認為 - 正如我們所考慮的那樣 - 史蒂夫列出了我們戰略和戰略客戶合作夥伴關係的要素，並試圖與那些正在發展自有品牌的客戶一起成長。我的意思是那是戰略的卡車。

And so I think as you grow with those who are growing faster in private label, I think that probably naturally improves your mix a little bit. But I do think a lot of that has to do with the volume growth and trying to grow overall with the stronger rates of the categories, and then trying to improve our supply chain with the investments that we've put in place and the range of CapEx that we think is necessary to do that.

所以我認為，當你與那些在自有品牌中增長更快的人一起成長時，我認為這可能會自然地改善你的組合。但我確實認為，這在很大程度上與銷量增長有關，並試圖通過更強勁的類別增長率實現整體增長，然後通過我們已經投入的投資和範圍來改善我們的供應鏈。我們認為這樣做所必需的資本支出。

Okay. Cool. And then just quickly, D&A, I know you guide to EBITDA, but at the same time you are investing a little bit on the capital side. Do you have a forecast for '23 for D&A?

好的。涼爽的。然後很快，D&A，我知道你指導 EBITDA，但與此同時你在資本方面進行了一些投資。您對 D&A 的 23 年有預測嗎？

We do. I don't think we put that we put that out. We'll have to probably follow up with you on the exact number.

我們的確是。我認為我們沒有把它放出來。我們可能必須跟進您的確切數字。

And your next question comes from the line of Carla Casella from JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Carla Casella。

My biggest questions on the EBITDA add-backs that you have for the covenant adjusted. Can you just give us the basis for that -- the $65 million one?

我最大的問題是你為契約調整後的 EBITDA 加回。你能給我們一個 6500 萬美元的基礎嗎？

So you're talking about in the appendix?

所以你在附錄中談論？

Exactly. Covenant just EBITDA looks like it's over $400 million, whereas we calculate $300 million, as you show in your other. I'm just wondering what the difference is? Is it go-forward cost savings or...?

確切地。 Covenant 只是 EBITDA 看起來超過 4 億美元，而我們計算的是 3 億美元，正如您在其他方面所顯示的那樣。我只是想知道有什麼區別？是節省成本還是……？

Yes. I think the footnote down there has -- it's a lot of the Meal Pep transaction-related costs that were being added back or within that category. They're allowable under the credit agreement.

是的。我認為那裡的腳註有——很多與 Meal Pep 交易相關的成本被加回或添加到該類別中。根據信貸協議，它們是允許的。

Okay. So your $300 million EBITDA has some other noncash charges that you haven't added back as well. It looks like there's another $44 million. Are those charges that just won't recur or they were -- they're not allowed to -- I don't understand why you don't add the Mac in your EBITDA adjustments?

好的。因此，您的 3 億美元 EBITDA 還有一些您尚未加回的其他非現金費用。看起來還有 4400 萬美元。這些費用是不會再發生的，還是它們——它們是不允許的——我不明白你為什麼不在你的 EBITDA 調整中添加 Mac？

No, those are other sort of noncash write-offs as defined in the credit agreement. There's things like inventory write-offs and other elements that, as defined, are part of the covenant calculation.

不，這些是信貸協議中定義的其他類型的非現金註銷。存貨註銷和其他元素之類的東西，如定義的那樣，是契約計算的一部分。

Okay. And then you've got a $427 million note receivable on the balance sheet. When do you expect to monetize that? And have you thought about what -- how you would allocate the proceeds?

好的。然後你在資產負債表上有一張 4.27 億美元的應收票據。您預計什麼時候將其貨幣化？你有沒有想過 - 你將如何分配收益？

Yes, we don't have an expectation of when to monetize that. I think given the dislocation in the credit markets and having to probably speculate a bit about Winland's intent in terms of when they may choose to refinance. I don't think we're in a position to sort of estimate when that might be.

是的，我們不期望何時將其貨幣化。我認為，鑑於信貸市場的混亂，並且不得不推測 Winland 在何時選擇再融資方面的意圖。我不認為我們能夠估計什麼時候可能。

But we're really happy with the return that, that note provides and to be able to go reinvest some of that interest back into the business. And so we'll continue to carry that right now. And we feel good about the direction of the business on the Winland side as well.

但我們對該票據提供的回報感到非常滿意，並且能夠將部分利息重新投資到業務中。所以我們現在將繼續攜帶它。我們也對 Winland 方面的業務方向感到滿意。

Though I do think capital allocation is a great question, right? And when I arrived, we had to prioritize paying down debt, right? We now have our balance sheet in a really good place where we can have a much more balanced capital allocation strategy. We will maintain a very strong balance sheet. We're there now. We'll continue that, but we can also now invest in our business. That will be our primary look is how can we get -- because we think the returns in our business are so strong.

雖然我確實認為資本配置是一個很好的問題，對吧？當我到達時，我們必須優先考慮償還債務，對嗎？我們現在的資產負債表處於一個非常好的位置，我們可以在其中製定更加平衡的資本配置策略。我們將保持非常強勁的資產負債表。我們現在就在那裡。我們會繼續這樣做，但我們現在也可以投資我們的業務。這將是我們的主要關注點，即我們如何獲得——因為我們認為我們業務的回報非常強勁。

And then what are the other opportunities? Can we return some capital to shareholders? And what else can we do with it? But we now have a much more balanced opportunity than we've had in the past where we really want to get our debt structure right and our balance sheet right. And having the transaction allowed us to make a big step change there. So that's why we feel better about the growth numbers that we're able to talk about today because we can invest to drive them.

那麼其他機會是什麼？我們可以向股東返還一些資本嗎？我們還能用它做什麼？但我們現在擁有比過去更加平衡的機會，我們真的希望我們的債務結構和資產負債表正確。有了這筆交易，我們就可以在那裡做出重大改變。所以這就是為什麼我們對今天能夠談論的增長數字感覺更好，因為我們可以投資來推動它們。

That's great. Super helpful.

那太棒了。超級有幫助。

Circling back to the D&A question from earlier, we think that will be about $145 million to $150 million.

回到之前的 D&A 問題，我們認為這將約為 1.45 億美元至 1.5 億美元。

And your next question comes from the line of William Reuter from Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 William Reuter。

Earlier, when you were talking about how half of your CapEx is going to be for driving capacity expansion and better innovation for your customers, I think you made some reference to potentially purchasing capacity. I guess, is that on the radar in terms of other facilities for sale that may allow you to, I guess, more aggressively grow -- that would speed up your ability to grow the top line?

早些時候，當你談到一半的資本支出將用於推動產能擴張和為客戶更好地創新時，我認為你提到了潛在的購買能力。我想，就其他待售設施而言，我猜這可能會讓你更積極地增長——這會加快你增加收入的能力嗎？

I think there will be some stuff available, yes. But it has to be right. And we're incredibly careful there. And it has to meet the right category, the right location and the right capability. So there may be some opportunities for some very small purchases, and there may be some -- I don't think anything would be huge, but there may be some other opportunities out there. So those things happen when they happen. We can't speculate on exact timing of that.

我認為會有一些可用的東西，是的。但它必須是正確的。我們在那裡非常小心。它必須滿足正確的類別、正確的位置和正確的能力。所以可能會有一些非常小的購買機會，並且可能有一些 - 我認為沒有什麼是巨大的，但可能還有其他一些機會。所以這些事情發生時就會發生。我們無法推測具體時間。

Got it. And then in terms of the TSA agreement, I guess I -- is the expectation that this is still going to wind down over a year? And clearly, you're going to have some excess costs for your operations when you're not receiving some of those revenues, are you pretty comfortable that you'll be able to decrease those costs in line with the reductions in in funds that are going to be provided to you from Investindustrial?

知道了。然後就 TSA 協議而言，我想我 - 是否期望這仍會在一年內結束？很明顯，當您沒有收到其中一些收入時，您的運營將產生一些超額成本，您是否很放心能夠根據資金的減少來減少這些成本？將由 Investindustrial 提供給您？

Yes, I think that's right. So there's -- those services are some of the back-office services you would expect under a TSA. And we expect to be able to wind those down. And we know the Winland business is going to need some folks where we're providing TSA services as well so that there's probably a mutual beneficial solution there.

是的，我認為這是對的。因此，這些服務是您在 TSA 下期望的一些後台服務。我們希望能夠結束這些。我們知道 Winland 業務將需要一些人來提供 TSA 服務，這樣可能會有一個互惠互利的解決方案。

And this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Steve Oakland for some closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想把會議轉回給史蒂夫奧克蘭做一些閉幕詞。

I just want to say thank you for everyone for joining us today, and we look forward to seeing you in person soon. Thank you so much. Have a great day.

我只想對大家今天加入我們表示感謝，我們期待很快與您見面。太感謝了。祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。