Triumph Group Inc (TGI) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Triumph Group first-quarter fiscal year 2025 results conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

您好，歡迎參加凱旋集團 2025 財年第一季業績電話會議。（操作員說明）請注意此事件正在被記錄。

I would like now to turn the conference over to Thomas Quigley, Vice President, Investor Relations, Mergers and Acquisitions and Treasurer at Triumph. Please go ahead.

我現在將會議交給凱旋公司投資者關係、併購副總裁兼財務主管 Thomas Quigley。請繼續。

Pardon me, everyone. We're having a technical issue. I will get the speakers ready in just one moment. Thank you for your patience. (technical difficulty)

請原諒我，大家。我們遇到技術問題。我馬上就把揚聲器準備好。感謝您的耐心等待。（技術難度）

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your patience. Apologies for the technical issues. I will now introduce Mr. Thomas Quigley to begin the call. Please go ahead.

女士們先生們，感謝你們的耐心等待。對技術問題表示歉意。現在我請湯瑪斯‧奎格利先生開始通話。請繼續。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to our first-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings call. Today, I'm joined by Dan Crowley, the company's Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer; and Jim McCabe, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Triumph. As we review the financial results for the quarter, please refer to the presentation posted on our website this morning. We will discuss our adjusted results.

謝謝。早安，歡迎參加我們的 2025 財年第一季財報電話會議。今天，公司董事長、總裁兼執行長 Dan Crowley 也加入了我的行列。吉姆‧麥凱布 (Jim McCabe)，凱旋資深副總裁兼財務長。當我們審查本季的財務業績時，請參閱今天早上發佈在我們網站上的簡報。我們將討論調整後的結果。

Our adjustments and any reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures to comparable GAAP measures are explained in the earnings press release and in the presentation. Certain statements on this call constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors, which may cause Triumph's actual results, performance, achievements to be materially different from any expected future results, performance, or achievements expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements.

我們的調整以及非公認會計原則財務指標與可比較公認會計原則財務指標的調節均在收益新聞稿和簡報中進行了解釋。本次電話會議的某些陳述構成 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述涉及已知和未知的風險、不確定性和其他因素，可能導致凱盛的實際結果、業績、成就與前瞻性陳述中明示或暗示的任何預期未來結果、業績或成就存在重大差異。

Dan, I'll turn it over to you.

丹，我會把它交給你。

Thanks, Tom, and welcome to Triumph's first-quarter fiscal 2025 call. I'm pleased to report that Triumph is off to a solid start to the year and expect continued improvement as we move through the course of the fiscal 2025 and into seasonally stronger quarters.

謝謝湯姆，歡迎參加凱旋 2025 財年第一季電話會議。我很高興地向大家報告，凱旋在今年取得了良好的開局，並預計隨著我們進入 2025 財年並進入季節性強勁的季度，業績將持續改善。

Turning to page 3, I'll highlight key accomplishments from the quarter. We generated year-over-year sales growth of 7%, driven by strong aftermarket demand, offsetting a modest reduction in military OEM production demand. We expanded margins on price increases and favorable sales mix. We retired an additional $120 million of debt, strengthening our balance sheet. We were rewarded with recent credit rating upgrades from both Moody's and S&P.

翻到第 3 頁，我將重點放在本季的主要成就。在強勁的售後市場需求的推動下，我們的銷售額年增了 7%，抵消了軍事 OEM 生產需求的小幅下降。我們透過提價和有利的銷售組合擴大了利潤。我們還清償了額外 1.2 億美元的債務，增強了我們的資產負債表。我們最近獲得了穆迪和標準普爾信用評級的升級。

Turning to page 4, you can see that aftermarket sales, including spares and repairs from our systems and support segment is trending up in support of both commercial and military end markets. Triumph aftermarket sales were up 27% year over year as we benefit from a rising average fleet age, the need to fly older aircraft longer due to the shortage of new aircraft entering the fleet and the emergent 787 landing gear overhaul cycle. As we mentioned last quarter, the 787 landing gear overhaul cycle is 12 years, and the oldest member of the fleet are hitting 12 years now, necessitating the removal and overhaul of all landing gear actuation, essentially all of which Triumph supplies. Our typical twin aisle landing gear actuation overhaul price is between $185,000 and $400,000. The steady rise in spares and repairs on key platforms, including the Boeing 737 and Airbus A320 fleet and the Boeing 787 and Airbus A380 wide-body fleets, benefits our sales mix and financials.

翻到第 4 頁，您可以看到售後市場銷售（包括我們的系統和支援部門的備件和維修）呈上升趨勢，以支援商業和軍事終端市場。凱旋售後市場銷售額年增 27%，這得益於我們平均機隊機齡的增加、由於新飛機進入機隊的短缺而需要延長舊飛機的飛行時間以及 787 起落架大修週期的出現。正如我們上個季度提到的，787 起落架大修週期為12 年，而機隊中最老的成員現在已經12 年了，需要拆除和大修所有起落架驅動裝置，基本上所有起落架都是由凱旋供應的。我們典型的雙通道起落架驅動大修價格在 185,000 美元到 400,000 美元之間。關鍵平台（包括波音 737 和空中巴士 A320 機隊以及波音 787 和空中巴士 A380 寬體機隊）的備件和維修數量穩步增長，有利於我們的銷售組合和財務狀況。

Overall military segment revenues were stable to slightly down, supported by the strength of CH-53K sales, offset by V-22 and E2D OEM declines, though mostly offset by aftermarket sales on these same platforms. Key wins for the quarter include contracts for the F/A-18E/F fuel pump overhaul, the T-7A gearbox, and the Kratos XQ-58 landing gear, which benefit three of our four Triumph operating companies where we are positioned on key growth platforms.

受 CH-53K 銷售強勁的支撐，軍事部門的總體收入穩定至小幅下降，但被 V-22 和 E2D OEM 的下降所抵消，儘管大部分被這些相同平台上的售後市場銷售所抵消。本季度的主要勝利包括F/A-18E/F 燃油泵大修、T-7A 變速箱和Kratos XQ-58 起落架的合同，這些合同使我們四家凱旋運營公司中的三家受益，我們在這些公司中處於關鍵地位成長平台。

As discussed on our last earnings call, the inflationary impacts on our interiors business continue to be challenging but largely in line with our expectations and reflective of broader industry trends, particularly a decline in narrow-body production rates and supply chain cost increases. We took actions in the quarter to rightsized the interiors business, consistent with the delayed MAX ramp while we continue our commercial discussions with Boeing.

正如我們在上次財報電話會議上所討論的那樣，通貨膨脹對我們的內裝業務的影響仍然具有挑戰性，但在很大程度上符合我們的預期，並反映了更廣泛的行業趨勢，特別是窄體生產率的下降和供應鏈成本的增加。我們在本季採取了行動，調整了內裝業務規模，與推遲的 MAX 產能成長保持一致，同時我們繼續與波音進行商業討論。

Triumph remains on track to achieve our overall annual net sales, adjusted EBITDAP, and cash flow guidance. When adjusting for a legacy environmental legal contingency we recognized in the quarter, our operating income and EPS guidance also remain unchanged. Jim will provide more color on our outlook later in the call.

凱旋仍有望實現整體年度淨銷售額、調整後息稅折舊攤提前利潤 (EBITDAP) 和現金流指引。在本季我們所認知到的遺留環境法律意外事件進行調整時，我們的營業收入和每股盈餘指引也保持不變。吉姆將在稍後的電話會議中對我們的前景提供更多資訊。

I'm also pleased with our ability to execute our pivot to systems and IP-based aftermarket. This is the first quarter that Triumph has operated as a pure-play systems IP-based aftermarket and interiors company following the divestiture of our product support business. We have partnered with AAR on a seamless transition and identified areas to win together through AAR's distribution channels.

我也對我們轉向系統和基於 IP 的售後市場的能力感到滿意。這是凱旋在剝離產品支援業務後作為基於 IP 的純系統售後市場和內飾公司運營的第一個季度。我們與 AAR 合作實現無縫過渡，並確定了透過 AAR 的分銷管道共同獲勝的領域。

As reported, the product support divestiture served as a catalyst to allow us to significantly and rapidly de-lever the business, strengthen our balance sheet, and meaningfully reduce our cash interest expense. We remain well-positioned to capitalize on strong demand from the aftermarket in the short term and higher OEM build rates over the next 18 months.

據報道，產品支援剝離起到了催化劑的作用，使我們能夠顯著、快速地去槓桿化業務，加強我們的資產負債表，並有意義地減少我們的現金利息支出。我們仍然處於有利地位，可以利用短期內售後市場的強勁需求以及未來 18 個月更高的 OEM 建造率。

Triumph is ready for the expected A&D industry super cycle based on our diversification of customers and end markets as we gain share with new products, MRO services, and takeaways.

隨著我們透過新產品、MRO 服務和外送獲得份額，凱旋已為預期的 A&D 行業超級週期做好了準備，基於我們客戶和終端市場的多元化。

Here's Jim to review our financial results.

吉姆請回顧我們的財務表現。

Thanks, Dan, and good morning, everyone. Q1 results exceeded our plan on all key financial metrics, and Triumph remains on track to achieve our full-year objectives. Q1 was a good quarter for Triumph, with the strength of our proprietary aftermarket revenue and systems and support more than offsetting the temporary OEM rate deferrals and supply chain challenges. We continue to lower our debt and improve our credit as evidenced by the ratings upgrades Triumph received from both S&P and Moody's in the quarter.

謝謝丹，大家早安。第一季的業績在所有關鍵財務指標上都超出了我們的計劃，凱旋仍有望實現我們的全年目標。第一季對凱旋來說是一個不錯的季度，憑藉我們專有的售後市場收入和系統的實力以及支持，足以抵消臨時 OEM 費率延期和供應鏈挑戰。我們繼續降低債務並改善信用，本季標準普爾和穆迪對 Triumph 的評級上調就證明了這一點。

Our consolidated first quarter results are on page 5 and shows solid growth in revenue, operating income and margins compared to last year. Revenue of $281 million was up $17 million, or 7%. Adjusted operating income of $17 million was up $3 million, or 23%. Adjusted operating margin of 6% was up 80 basis points from about 5% last year, and $25 million of adjusted EBITDAP represents a 9% adjusted EBITDAP margin.

我們的第一季綜合業績位於第 5 頁，顯示與去年相比，營收、營業收入和利潤率均實現穩健成長。營收為 2.81 億美元，成長 1,700 萬美元，即 7%。調整後營業收入為 1,700 萬美元，增加了 300 萬美元，即 23%。調整後營業利益率為 6%，比去年約 5% 上升了 80 個基點，調整後 EBITDAP 利潤率為 9%，調整後 EBITDAP 利潤率為 2,500 萬美元。

Aftermarket revenue was 33% of total revenue, up from 27% of revenue in Q1 of last year. Our aftermarket revenue, while only a third of our revenue, delivers 73% of our profit in the quarter. Our growing installed base of proprietary products drives our aftermarket revenue and profit growth.

售後市場收入佔總收入的 33%，高於去年第一季的 27%。我們的售後市場收入雖然只占我們營收的三分之一，但卻占我們本季獲利的 73%。我們不斷成長的專有產品安裝基礎推動了我們的售後市場收入和利潤的成長。

We had three non-GAAP adjustments this quarter. A legal contingency loss of $7.5 million related to a legacy environmental matter, restructuring costs of $1.6 million as we continue to reduce our fixed costs and a debt extinguishment loss of $5.4 million from the debt repayment in the quarter. Although not an adjustment, our Q1 legal cost to manage certain legacy loss contingencies were about $1.8 million higher than planned.

本季我們進行了三項非公認會計準則調整。與遺留環境問題相關的法律意外損失為 750 萬美元，由於我們繼續減少固定成本而導致重組成本為 160 萬美元，本季債務償還造成的債務清償損失為 540 萬美元。儘管不是調整，但我們第一季管理某些遺留損失意外事件的法律成本比計劃高出約 180 萬美元。

Our Q1 commercial revenue is on page 6. Commercial aftermarket revenue was up $15 million or 43%, largely on legacy 737 spares and repairs. We also had an IP sale of about $5 million in the quarter compared to $3 million in the prior-year period. Commercial OEM revenue of $119 million was up slightly as 787 revenue increases more than offset revenue declines on Bell 429, Boeing 737, and other commercial platforms.

我們第一季的商業收入位於第 6 頁。商業售後市場收入成長了 1,500 萬美元，即 43%，主要歸功於舊版 737 備件和維修。本季我們的智慧財產權銷售額約為 500 萬美元，而去年同期為 300 萬美元。商業 OEM 收入小幅增長 1.19 億美元，因為 787 收入的成長超過了貝爾 429、波音 737 和其他商業平台收入的下降。

Our Q1 military revenue is on page 7. Military aftermarket revenue of $41 million was up $4 million or 11% over Q1 last year, which has offset military OEM decline. CH-53K continues to be an important military program for us in both OEM and aftermarket revenue.

我們第一季的軍費收入在第 7 頁。軍事售後市場收入為 4,100 萬美元，比去年第一季增長 400 萬美元，即 11%，抵消了軍事 OEM 的下滑。無論是在 OEM 還是售後市場收入方面，CH-53K 仍然是我們的重要軍事項目。

Cash flow is on page 8. For Q1, as expected, we built working capital and had free cash use of $113 million. This included $8 million of capital expenditures, up from $6 million last year. This cash use was driven by seasonally higher working capital, timing of OEM rate ramps, and supply chain shortages, all of which are expected to improve in the second half. The cash used in the quarter also included approximately $2 million of accelerated interest payments for the debt redemption, $1.6 million of cash restructuring costs and about $5 million of cash taxes related to the sale of product support in Q4 last year.

現金流量請見第 8 頁。正如預期的那樣，第一季我們建立了營運資金並擁有 1.13 億美元的自由現金使用。其中包括 800 萬美元的資本支出，高於去年的 600 萬美元。這種現金使用是由季節性較高的營運資本、原始設備製造商利率上升的時機以及供應鏈短缺所推動的，所有這些因素預計將在下半年得到改善。本季使用的現金還包括約 200 萬美元的債務贖回加速利息支付、160 萬美元的現金重組成本以及與去年第四季產品支持銷售相關的約 500 萬美元的現金稅。

On page 9 is our net debt and liquidity. During the quarter, we redeemed $120 million of the first lien notes, reducing them from $1.079 billion to $959 million. At the end of the quarter, net debt was $821 million, up from year-end as planned to support the seasonal working capital build. Liquidity totaled $203 million, including $153 million of cash and is sufficient for our planned working capital needs. Our combined reduction across fiscal '24 and '25 year to date will yield $55 million of annual interest savings, and our remaining notes are not due until 2028.

第 9 頁是我們的淨債務和流動性。本季度，我們贖回了 1.2 億美元的第一留置權票據，將其從 10.79 億美元減少到 9.59 億美元。截至本季末，淨債務為 8.21 億美元，高於年底，按計畫支持季節性營運資金建設。流動資金總額為 2.03 億美元，其中包括 1.53 億美元現金，足以滿足我們計劃的營運資金需求。到目前為止，我們在 24 財年和 25 財年迄今的綜合削減將節省 5,500 萬美元的年度利息，而我們剩餘的票據要到 2028 年才能到期。

On page 10 is our FY25 revenue, EBITDAP, and free cash flow guidance, which is unchanged from last quarter. We continue to expect net sales of approximately $1.2 billion. We continue to expect approximately $182 million of EBITDAP for a 15% EBITDAP margin. For free cash flow, we continue to expect $10 million to $25 million of generation for FY25.

第 10 頁是我們 25 財年的營收、EBITDAP 和自由現金流指引，與上季相比沒有變動。我們仍然預計淨銷售額約為 12 億美元。我們仍預期 EBITDAP 利潤率為 15%，EBITDAP 約為 1.82 億美元。對於自由現金流，我們繼續預計 2025 財年發電量為 1,000 萬至 2,500 萬美元。

Looking ahead to Q2, in addition to normal seasonality, we anticipate lower sales than last year in our geared solutions business, primarily as a result of LEAP order deferrals and supplier delays on the V-22 program.

展望第二季度，除了正常的季節性因素外，我們預計齒輪解決方案業務的銷售額將低於去年，這主要是由於 LEAP 訂單延期和 V-22 項目供應商延遲造成的。

In the second half of the year, we expect increases on these programs as well as the T-7A as it transitions from development to production and higher aftermarket sales. Free cash use in the second quarter is expected to be in the range of $70 million to $90 million, driven by a $43 million interest payment, seasonality, and working capital timing due to OEM rate ramp. We forecast rapid working capital burn off in the second half of the year, consistent with our full-year free cash flow guidance.

下半年，我們預計這些項目以及 T-7A 的數量都會增加，因為它從開發過渡到生產，售後市場銷量也更高。第二季的自由現金使用量預計在 7,000 萬美元至 9,000 萬美元之間，這是由於 4,300 萬美元的利息支付、季節性以及 OEM 利率上升帶來的營運資金安排的推動。我們預計下半年營運資金將迅速消耗，這與我們的全年自由現金流指引一致。

In summary, first-quarter results exceeded our plan and included revenue growth, operating income growth, and operating margin over last year. We remain on track to achieve our full-year financial objectives.

總而言之，第一季業績超出了我們的計劃，包括與去年相比的收入成長、營業收入成長和營業利潤率。我們仍有望實現全年財務目標。

Now, I'll turn the call back to Dan. Dan?

現在，我將把電話轉回給丹。擔？

Thanks, Jim. We just returned from the 2024 Farnborough International Airshow, and our positive outlook on the long-term demand was reinforced by the level of traffic there and OEM projections. The OEMs expressed optimism about planned increases in aircraft sales and production levels, which are expected to ramp through the end of the calendar 2024 and into 2025.

謝謝，吉姆。我們剛從 2024 年範堡羅國際航展回來，那裡的交通水平和 OEM 預測強化了我們對長期需求的積極前景。原始設備製造商對飛機銷售和生產水準的計畫成長表示樂觀，預計這些成長將在 2024 年底至 2025 年持續成長。

The airshow was a very productive event for Triumph. We conducted over 180 meetings and showcased our new proprietary products such as engine actuation, cockpit indicator panels, and new cyber protected digital avionics, which are at the heart of multiple product development efforts from engine controls to displays.

這次航展對於凱旋來說是個非常有成效的活動。我們舉行了180 多次會議，展示了我們的新專有產品，例如發動機驅動、駕駛艙指示面板和新的網路保護數位航空電子設備，這些產品是從發動機控製到顯示器等多種產品開發工作的核心。

I'll touch on three takeaways from Farnborough. First, it's clear that our customers need Triumph. We are problem solvers and have innovative engineers. We heard keep doing what you're doing, and we'd like you to help us we're here. We solve our customers' hardest challenges.

我將談談範堡羅的三個要點。首先，很明顯我們的客戶需要 Triumph。我們是問題解決者並擁有創新的工程師。我們聽說要繼續做你正在做的事情，我們希望你能幫助我們。我們解決客戶最困難的挑戰。

Second, while delays in commercial transport rate increases are impacting much of the industry, the OEMs are signaling increasing rates later this year, and Triumph will benefit from any increases given our conservative assumptions. Boeing and Airbus commercial transport backlog rose 25% since December of 2020, the airlines need these new aircraft. Meanwhile, the aftermarket, both spares and repairs, is growing and expected to remain strong through the end of the decade according to leading aircraft lessors.

其次，雖然商業運輸費率上調的延遲對整個行業產生了影響，但原始設備製造商表示今年稍後將提高費率，鑑於我們保守的假設，凱旋將從任何上漲中受益。自2020年12月以來，波音和空中巴士的商業運輸積壓量增加了25%，航空公司需要這些新飛機。同時，據領先的飛機租賃商稱，備件和維修等售後市場正在成長，預計到本世紀末將保持強勁。

And third, our alignment with our customers has never been better. Our customer collaboration is accelerating as evidenced by customer-funded initiatives ranging from landing gear system designs to additively manufacture gearboxes, thermal system solutions, and new actuator and engine control products. Triumph continues to seek out and solve our customers' greatest challenges.

第三，我們與客戶的一致性從未如此好。我們的客戶合作正在加速，從起落架系統設計到增材製造變速箱、熱系統解決方案以及新執行器和引擎控制產品等客戶資助的計劃就證明了這一點。凱旋不斷尋找並解決客戶面臨的最大挑戰。

Total backlog continues to rise, up 11% year over year to $1.9 billion, even as we push out some narrow-body orders. Backlog is stable sequentially as a result of delayed orders, which occurred in first quarter of fiscal '24, but have not yet hit the FY25 order book.

儘管我們推出了一些窄體飛機訂單，但積壓訂單總額仍在持續上升，年增 11%，達到 19 億美元。由於訂單延遲，積壓訂單連續穩定，延遲訂單發生在 24 財年第一季度，但尚未達到 25 財年訂單簿。

Commercial single-aisle backlog was flat as Airbus A320 family increases were offset by declines in the 737 and A220. However, twin aisle backlog is up 42% year over year, driven in particular by the 787 and 777 orders spanning OEM and aftermarket. Triumph's growth in the commercial segment will accelerate as rate increases at Airbus and Boeing are realized in the near future.

商業單通道積壓訂單持平，因為空中巴士 A320 系列的成長被 737 和 A220 的下降所抵消。然而，雙通道積壓訂單年增 42%，尤其是在 OEM 和售後市場的 787 和 777 訂單的推動下。隨著空中巴士和波音在不久的將來實現價格上漲，凱旋在商業領域的成長將加速。

Turning to page 12, new wins for the quarter include an F/A-18 Afterburner Fuel Pump MRO award. We're also supporting the new GE classified military engine test stand with multiple components. Additionally, GE awarded us their T-7A F404 gearbox, and Kratos awarded Triumph a landing gear design and build program for the Kratos XQ-58 Valkyrie, a collaborative combat aircraft variant.

翻到第 12 頁，本季的新勝利包括 F/A-18 加力燃油泵 MRO 獎。我們還支援具有多個組件的新型 GE 分類軍用引擎測試台。此外，GE 還向我們授予了他們的 T-7A F404 變速箱，Kratos 則向 Triumph 授予了 Kratos XQ-58 Valkyrie（一種協作戰鬥機變型）的起落架設計和製造項目。

Turning to page 13. I want to acknowledge our now second largest customer, GE Aerospace, and the breadth of our growing engagement with them. Over the last four years, our GE revenues have grown at a 23% CAGR nearly doubling. We have a strong portfolio of legacy products for GE, including gearboxes, rotorcraft fuel controls, fighter fuel pumps, and heat exchangers. But more importantly, we have a growing portfolio of new applications, which have led to the development of new products and entirely new product lines.

翻到第13頁。我要感謝我們現在的第二大客戶 GE 航空航太公司，以及我們與他們不斷成長的合作範圍。過去四年，我們的 GE 收入以 23% 的複合年增長率成長，幾乎翻了一番。我們為 GE 提供強大的傳統產品組合，包括變速箱、旋翼飛機燃油控制裝置、戰鬥機燃油泵和熱交換器。但更重要的是，我們擁有不斷成長的新應用組合，這導致了新產品和全新產品線的開發。

For example, on GE's new military engines, both adaptive cycle and a classified derivative engine, Triumph has 10x the content on these new engines versus prior GE military engines, which will be tailwinds as these engines transition to production. GE recognized Triumph as both a value partner and a problem solver, and we are positioned to grow alongside them in the years to come.

例如，在GE 的新型軍用發動機（包括自適應循環發動機和分類衍生發動機）上，凱旋在這些新發動機上的含量是以前的GE 軍用發動機的10 倍，隨著這些發動機過渡到生產，這將是順風車。GE 將 Triumph 視為價值合作夥伴和問題解決者，我們準備在未來幾年與他們一起成長。

On the emerging electric vehicle market, we've had several wins in the quarter, including a thermal package on the Deutsche Aircraft D38eco (sic - "D328eco") and a funded preliminary design effort for a Tier 1 electric regional jet gearbox. We continue to track commercial transport segment performance, including aircraft orders and backlog. While new aircraft orders year to date are lagging prior year, total aircraft order backlog stands at more than 15,000, up 25% from 2020 and represents 12 years of production backlog at current rates, underpinning the rising pressure for further production rate increases.

在新興電動車市場上，我們本季取得了多項勝利，包括德意志飛機 D38eco（原文如此，「D328eco」）的散熱套件以及為 Tier 1 電動支線噴射機變速箱提供資助的初步設計工作。我們繼續追蹤商業運輸部門的表現，包括飛機訂單和積壓訂單。雖然今年迄今的新飛機訂單量落後於去年，但飛機積壓訂單總數超過15,000 架，比2020 年增長25%，按目前的速度計算，積壓的生產量已達12 年，這支撐了進一步提高生產率的壓力。

I look forward to working with both the new Boeing Commercial CEO, Stephanie Pope; and Boeing's CEO, Kelly Ortberg, who I know from my past industry roles. Triumph is fully supporting Boeing's quality and safety management system initiatives and is closely monitoring their supplier portal for aircraft rate changes.

我期待與新任波音商用執行長 Stephanie Pope 和 Stephanie Pope 合作。以及波音公司執行長凱利·奧特伯格（Kelly Ortberg），我在過去的行業職位中認識了他。凱旋全力支持波音公司的品質和安全管理體系計劃，並密切關注其供應商入口網站的飛機費率變化。

On the development front, we were very encouraged that Boeing's 777X program is moving forward to the formal stage of flight testing with the FAA. Triumph has over 700,000 content on this new advanced aircraft, which I saw in number during my recent visit to Boeing's final assembly plant. With a backlog of over 500 aircraft prior to certification, this is expected to be a very successful program.

在開發方面，我們對波音 777X 計畫正在與美國聯邦航空管理局 (FAA) 一起進入正式飛行測試階段感到非常鼓舞。Triumph 擁有超過 70 萬條關於這款新型先進飛機的內容，我在最近訪問波音組裝廠時看到了很多內容。認證前已積壓了 500 多架飛機，預計這將是一個非常成功的計劃。

Before I wrap up, I want to update you on a post-quarter close cyber event. On July 27, we identified a cybersecurity incident involving unauthorized access to certain of our IT systems. The company immediately took steps designed to contain the incident and activated our incident response plan to support continued operations. Consistent with the responses of other firms, we also notified appropriate law enforcement authorities and continue to work closely with cybersecurity experts and legal counsel to protect the company's interest and our customers. We have substantially restored the affected of systems and resume normal operations. We believe that the security incident has not had and is not reasonably likely to have a material impact on the company's financial results.

在結束之前，我想向您介紹季度後網路活動的最新情況。7 月 27 日，我們發現一起網路安全事件，涉及未經授權存取我們的某些 IT 系統。該公司立即採取了旨在控制該事件的措施，並啟動了我們的事件響應計劃以支持持續運營。與其他公司的反應一致，我們也通知了適當的執法機構，並繼續與網路安全專家和法律顧問密切合作，以保護公司的利益和客戶。我們已基本恢復受影響的系統並恢復正常運作。我們認為，該安全事件尚未且不太可能對公司的財務表現產生重大影響。

In summary, we're off to a solid start for the year, and Q1 puts us on track to achieve our fiscal 2025 objectives. The path to our year-end guidance is expected to be nonlinear, but the improvement in customer demand in the second half of the year gives us confidence in our outlook.

總之，我們今年有了一個良好的開端，第一季使我們有望實現 2025 財年的目標。我們的年終指引預計將是非線性的，但下半年客戶需求的改善讓我們對前景充滿信心。

Aftermarket sales continue to power the company through the near-term OEM headwinds. We expect to expand margins and improve cash quarter over quarter as we further realize benefits from our improved business profile and initiatives. The encouraging long-term outlook for our industry, our unique and focused markets position, and commitment to performance has us well-positioned for continued success. My team and I are closely aligned with our customers as we work through the near-term issues facing full recovery of OEM demand, and we're excited about our new products on future aircraft and engines that will enhance our long-term value creation.

售後市場銷售繼續為公司提供動力，應對近期的 OEM 逆風。隨著我們進一步認識到改善的業務狀況和措施所帶來的好處，我們預計將擴大利潤率並改善現金季度。我們行業令人鼓舞的長期前景、我們獨特且專注的市場地位以及對業績的承諾使我們處於持續成功的有利位置。我和我的團隊與客戶密切合作，共同解決 OEM 需求全面復甦所面臨的近期問題，我們對未來飛機和發動機上的新產品感到興奮，這些新產品將增強我們的長期價值創造。

Triumph will continue to hustle while we wait for the follow-through on customer demand, while strengthening our balance sheet, streamlining our business, and investing in our product portfolio to enhance our shareholder value.

凱旋將繼續努力，等待客戶需求的跟進，同時加強我們的資產負債表，精簡我們的業務，並投資於我們的產品組合，以提高我們的股東價值。

We're happy to answer any questions that you've got at this time.

我們很高興回答您目前提出的任何問題。

(Operator Instructions) Peter Arment, Baird.

（操作員說明）Peter Arment，Baird。

Good morning, Dan, Jim, Tom. Again, can you maybe walk us through, you're going to have like a heavy usage of free cash flow in the first half, but you expected obviously turned positive. What are the kind of the programs that you can kind of point to? Is it the 787 work? Obviously, the aftermarket is powering company that kind of gives you that positive swing in the back half of the year? And what rate do you expect to kind of be at on the 737 MAX? I know that's critical for your interiors profitability.

早安，丹、吉姆、湯姆。再說一遍，您能否向我們介紹一下，您將在上半年大量使用自由現金流，但您的預期顯然會變為正值。您可以指出哪些類型的程式？是787的作品嗎？顯然，售後市場正在為公司提供動力，這會為您帶來下半年的正面波動？您預計 737 MAX 的價格是多少？我知道這對您的內裝盈利能力至關重要。

Yeah. First of all, when I look at the business, I look at it through this lens of the operating companies, and we have strong performance out of our actuation business. It's hitting its marks as well as engine controls, and so they're performing independent of the MAX. We're seeing strong sales growth out of that as well.

是的。首先，當我看業務時，我透過營運公司的角度來看待它，我們的驅動業務表現強勁。它和引擎控制裝置都達到了預期目標，因此它們的性能獨立於 MAX。我們也看到了強勁的銷售成長。

Our geared solutions business is down slightly, and we know why that is. It's predominantly the LEAP program as well as the wrap-up on the Bell 429. They have new programs that are transitioning into production in the second half of the year that will benefit them like the T-7A.

我們的齒輪解決方案業務略有下降，我們知道原因。它主要是 LEAP 計劃以及 Bell 429 的總結。他們的新項目將於今年下半年投入生產，這將使他們受益，就像 T-7A 一樣。

Interiors is definitely down. They're producing it on the order of 12 to 14 a month now on the MAX because we delivered a lot of inventory. It's physically a large product to store. As that rate comes back at the end of our fiscal year, what I predicted would be Q4, we're going to see that business have an upswing in volume. And overall, it's really the mix of MRO, military, and commercial, all coming back strong in the second half of the year that contributed to that. Jim?

內裝肯定是下降了。他們現在在 MAX 上每月生產 12 到 14 件，因為我們交付了大量庫存。它實際上是一個需要儲存的大型產品。隨著該比率在我們的財政年度結束時（我預計將在第四季度）恢復，我們將看到業務量的上升。總體而言，這實際上是 MRO、軍事和商業的結合，所有這些都在今年下半年強勢回歸，促成了這一結果。吉姆？

Yeah, it's a diversified working capital challenge, and it's across multiple programs, not just the big Boeing programs, but LEAP gearboxes and V-22, where we have some supply chain challenges are all contributing to the temporary working capital surge. But we see line of sight for all those to liquidate in the second half of the year.

是的，這是一個多元化的營運資金挑戰，涉及多個項目，不僅僅是大型波音項目，還有LEAP 變速箱和V-22，我們在這些項目上面臨一些供應鏈挑戰，這些都導致​​了臨時營運資金的激增。但我們預計所有這些公司都將在今年下半年清算。

Okay. And then just as a clarification, Jim, you mentioned your -- I think, an interest cost payment in the second quarter, it seemed larger than either what the run rate is, or could you maybe just walk us through a little bit because you did pay down the debt and kind of the interest rate in the quarter -- interest cost was kind of trending below your guidance for the year. So maybe you could just update us there?

好的。然後，作為澄清，吉姆，你提到了你的——我認為，第二季度的利息成本支付，它似乎比運行率要大，或者你可以向我們介紹一下嗎，因為你確實還清了本季度的債務和利率—利息成本趨勢低於您今年的指導。那麼也許您可以在那裡更新我們的情況？

Sure, Peter. It's a semi-annual interest payment, September 15, it's about $43 million. So that's just on the remaining bonds that are outstanding. There's $959 million that are out there. Sorry, can you re-ask the second part of your question?

當然，彼得。這是半年一次的利息支付，9月15日，大約是4300萬美元。這只是剩餘未償還債券的情況。那裡有 9.59 億美元。抱歉，您可以重新問問題的第二部分嗎？

Yeah. Just so that -- in that guidance of $95 million to $90 million on cash interest still holds with that number?

是的。就這樣 - 9500 萬至 9000 萬美元現金利息的指導仍然符合這個數字嗎？

Yeah, absolutely. That's correct.

是的，絕對是。這是正確的。

Thanks. Thanks, guys.

謝謝。謝謝，夥計們。

David Strauss, Barclays.

大衛‧史特勞斯，巴克萊銀行。

Yeah, great, thanks. Good morning. A follow-up question on interiors. What kind of volume do you need on the MAX to get to positive EBITDAP in engine carriers? And when would you expect to get there this year?

是的，太好了，謝謝。早安.關於內裝的後續問題。您需要多大的 MAX 銷售量才能在引擎運營商中實現正的 EBITDAP？今年您預計什麼時候到達？

Sure, thanks. Interiors is -- let me first break down the interiors, there's three different businesses. Insulation is the largest, followed by composites, and then cabin components. Installation, we assumed a build rate this year of 160 shipsets. So you can do the math, it's 12, 13, and the portal is at that same kind of rate. Composites were producing at a higher volume closer to 30 a month because composite is the smaller products that can be packaged and tested, and we didn't really build ahead on composites. Plus, we're backstopping a number of suppliers that aren't performing on that. So some of that work is dual sourced. And then cabin components follows composites.

當然，謝謝。內裝是——讓我先分解內飾，它分為三個不同的業務。隔熱材料佔比最大，其次是複合材料，最後是機艙零件。安裝方面，我們假設今年的建造率為 160 艘船組。所以你可以算一下，是 12、13，門戶網站也是同樣的速率。複合材料的產量較高，每月接近 30 個，因為複合材料是可以包裝和測試的較小產品，而且我們並沒有真正在複合材料上進行開發。此外，我們也為一些沒有履行這項承諾的供應商提供支援。因此，其中一些工作是雙重來源的。然後機艙部件遵循複合材料。

So the real challenge is getting installation rates back up. And we've been profitable in this business at rates that are on the order of 30 a month. So to go from, call it, 13 a month to 30, we'll cross that threshold. And if Boeing can get to 40 as they've advertised next year, it will be solidly profitable. But we're not just relying on the rates, right? We've taken advantage of this backup in production to take out significant cost. The operations are performing well, independent of the rate. They're 99% on-time delivery and similar quality. We're moving some work between the two plants in Mexicali and Zacatecas.

因此，真正的挑戰是恢復安裝率。我們在這項業務中的盈利率約為每月 30 美元。因此，從每月 13 次到 30 次，我們將跨越這個門檻。如果波音明年能夠像他們宣傳的那樣達到 40 家，那麼它將實現穩定盈利。但我們不僅僅依賴利率，對嗎？我們利用生產中的這種備份來降低大量成本。操作執行良好，與速率無關。它們的準時交貨率高達 99%，且品質相似。我們正在墨西卡利和薩卡特卡斯的兩家工廠之間轉移一些工作。

We hosted Boeing on-site teams who are very impressed with what we're doing. We're picking up 787 work from competitors. So we're using the time to improve the performance of the business. And it looks like the peso is turning in our direction. It was really impactful to us last year. We still have work to do on supplier input costs. That's been a big driver for that business, but we're going to deal with that head on.

我們接待了波音現場團隊，他們對我們所做的事情印象深刻。我們正在從競爭對手那裡獲取 787 的工作。因此，我們正在利用這些時間來提高業務績效。看起來比索正在轉向我們的方向。去年這對我們影響確實很大。我們在供應商投入成本方面仍有工作要做。這是該業務的一大推動力，但我們將正面應對這一問題。

Okay. I guess, do you assume positive EBITDAP for the -- within the $182 million EBITDAP guidance for the year? Are you assuming that interiors is positive for the full year?

好的。我想，您是否認為今年 1.82 億美元的 EBITDAP 指導值為正？您是否認為室內裝潢全年表現良好？

It's a modest contributor at this point and still, again, about 10% of sales. So it's not a big swinger on Triumph's full results.

目前它的貢獻不大，但仍佔銷售額的 10% 左右。因此，這對凱旋的整體業績來說並不是一個很大的波動。

Okay. And then Jim, I guess another follow-up on the prior question, on interest expense, just the income statement amount, I think the quarter was 19% you've now reduced your debt balance. How do we get the $95 million for the full year?

好的。然後吉姆，我想是對前一個問題的另一個後續，關於利息支出，只是損益表金額，我認為這個季度是 19%，你現在已經減少了債務餘額。我們如何獲得全年的 9500 萬美元？

There's a little bit of favorable FX that runs through that line as well. But the interest expense itself on a cash basis is just the $959 million at 9%.

這條線上也有一些有利的外匯。但以現金計算的利息支出本身僅 9.59 億美元，利率為 9%。

Okay. Thanks very much. Appreciate it.

好的。非常感謝。欣賞它。

Michael Ciarmoli, Truist Securities.

邁克爾·恰莫利 (Michael Ciarmoli)，Truist 證券公司。

Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the questions. Dan, I think you said you guys exceeded the plan on all metrics. I mean, was the $7 million loss in interiors part of the plan? I mean, it seems like that would have been worse. And then what's -- I mean, how do we -- the confidence level, I guess, in the second half here? I mean, what -- do you really -- is this solely dependent on the MAX ramping and this kind of chatter or reports the past 24 to 48 hours of them redesigning that door plug? Is there any risk to ramping up that production that you guys see and kind of just trying to get a sense of the confidence level in this back half of the year here?

嘿，早上好，夥計們。感謝您提出問題。丹，我想你說過你們在所有指標上都超出了計劃。我的意思是，700 萬美元的內裝損失是計劃的一部分嗎？我的意思是，看起來情況會更糟。然後，我想，下半場的信心程度是怎麼樣的？我的意思是，你真的認為這完全取決於 MAX 爬坡和這種喋喋不休的報道，還是他們在過去 24 到 48 小時內重新設計門塞的報道？你們看到的提高產量是否有任何風險，並且只是想了解今年下半年的信心程度？

Yeah. First of all, thanks, Michael. When I say we exceeded the plan, it was on a consolidated basis, which speaks to the strength of our systems and support business, particularly actuation, had a very good Q1 and they offset the softness in interiors, which was below plan, to your point.

是的。首先，謝謝邁克爾。當我說我們超出了計劃時，這是在綜合的基礎上，這說明了我們系統和支持業務的實力，特別是驅動，第一季度的表現非常好，它們抵消了低於計劃的內飾的柔軟性，對您來說觀點。

As far as the MAX rates, yes, we're counting on rates to come back at the back end of the year. If they materially don't, then we'll come back and we'll update investors. But we've done such amount of work on diversification. It's still -- that single program is only about 12% of our revenue. So should a flat -- the rate remain flat for longer than we'd like, then the impact is not going to be huge.

就最高利率而言，是的，我們預計利率將在今年年底恢復。如果他們實質上沒有這樣做，那麼我們會回來並向投資者通報最新情況。但我們在多元化方面做了很多工作。但這個項目仍然只占我們收入的 12% 左右。因此，如果利率持平——利率保持持平的時間比我們希望的要長，那麼影響就不會很大。

As far as the door plug, listen, Boeing is doing the right thing on this. I've been tracking this as an insider on all their quality calls. Certainly, it was a disappointment. They came clean on the hand-off issues they had related to the faster installation. I was one of the first people to ask, hey, why can't this door plug be designed such that it's retained under flight pressures and doesn't require fasteners. They're only there as a secondary backup?

就門塞而言，聽著，波音在這方面做的是正確的事。我作為內部人士一直在追蹤他們所有的優質電話。當然，這令人失望。他們坦白了與更快安裝相關的交接問題。我是第一批問這個問題的人之一，嘿，為什麼這個門塞不能設計成在飛行壓力下保持不動並且不需要緊固件。它們只是作為輔助備份？

And when I told that to senior Boeing leaders, they said that's already in our pipeline to do that. And this was two months ago. So it's something they've been -- it's not something -- it may have just come publicly the last day or two, but it's something that Boeing is already ahead of the game on. So I'm confident they'll get it fixed.

當我向波音高級領導人講述這一點時，他們說我們已經在準備這樣做了。這是兩個月前的事了。所以這是他們一直在做的事情——這並不是什麼——它可能在最後一兩天才公開，但波音公司已經在這方面處於領先地位。所以我相信他們會解決這個問題。

It's a disappointment. It did impact a lot of us in the supply chain, but it will get fixed. And based on what I'm seeing within Boeing and all the work that they've done, I attended their supplier conference in Q1. They're fully committed to improving their performance and not stepping up the rate until the metrics justify doing so.

真是令人失望。它確實影響了供應鏈中的許多人，但它會得到解決。根據我在波音公司看到的情況以及他們所做的所有工作，我參加了他們第一季的供應商會議。他們完全致力於提高績效，並且在指標證明這樣做合理之前不會提高速度。

Got it, perfect. And then just, Dan, I think you called out that XQ-58 landing gear award. Can you -- is that a sizable or material win for you guys? Any color on that? I know there's a lot of movement with these collaborative combat kind of aircraft and plans.

明白了，完美。然後，丹，我想你已經頒發了 XQ-58 起落架獎。你們能——這對你們來說是一個相當大的或實質的勝利嗎？那上面有什麼顏色嗎？我知道這些協作作戰飛機和計劃有很多進展。

I don't think it's going to be a huge contract. The thing about our landing gear business is we go in and help primes, OEMs that don't have any expertise, but they may attempt to do the landing gear on their own, and then they look at crash survivalness, the ability to operate in off-normal conditions, heavy landings, cross winds, and suddenly, it's not so easy. And so we have a team in Seattle that designs these full test rigs. I was just up there looking at the landing gear that they've designed for the BETA eVTOL aircraft, and they were running deployment test on that. It's a very slick design, very low cost, low weight given that's important on eVTOL.

我認為這不會是一份巨大的合約。關於我們起落架業務的事情是，我們幫助沒有任何專業知識的主要廠商、原始設備製造商，但他們可能會嘗試自己製造起落架，然後他們會考慮碰撞生存能力，即在飛機上運行的能力。非正常條件、重著陸、側風，突然間，事情就沒那麼容易了。因此，我們在西雅圖有一個團隊來設計這些完整的測試裝置。我當時正在那裡查看他們為 BETA eVTOL 飛機設計的起落架，他們正在對其進行部署測試。它的設計非常巧妙，成本非常低，重量也很輕，這對 eVTOL 來說非常重要。

On the XQ-58, we met with Eric and his team at the air show, a very good meeting. They know what they're good at. We know what we're good at, and they're glad to have us as a partner. You're going to see us do that on other aircraft up to a certain weight class. The large landing gear, we're not really in that space, but these small to medium class aircraft we're becoming a strong leader in.

在XQ-58上，我們在航展上見到了Eric和他的團隊，這是一次非常好的會面。他們知道自己擅長什麼。我們知道自己擅長什麼，他們很高興有我們作為合作夥伴。您將看到我們在其他達到一定重量等級的飛機上這樣做。在大型起落架方面，我們並不真正涉足該領域，但在這些中小型飛機領域，我們正在成為強有力的領導者。

Got it, perfect. Thanks, guys. I'll jump back in the queue.

明白了，完美。謝謝，夥計們。我會跳回到隊列中。

Yes. Thanks, Mike.

是的。謝謝，麥克。

Myles Walton, Wolfe Research.

邁爾斯·沃爾頓，沃爾夫研究中心。

Thanks, and good morning. Jim, how did -- I think 2Q was looked at as a neutral from a free cash flow perspective and now [$70 million] to [$90 million] and obviously was burning hotter in the first quarter. Can you point to specifically why that deterioration? And I guess, why the confidence that you'll still recover to the same point by the end of the year?

謝謝，早安。吉姆，我是怎麼做的- 我認為從自由現金流的角度來看，第二季度被視為中性，現在[7000萬美元]到[9000萬美元]，並且顯然在第一季度燃燒得更熱。能具體指出為什麼會惡化嗎？我想，為什麼你有信心在年底前恢復到同樣的水平？

Sure. Yeah. I know that consensus out there was around zero. We had a little bit of cash usage in our AOP. And unfortunately, it's grown because of the rates -- the timing of the rate ramp essentially is one driver. Supply chain challenges on certain military programs are another driver. The LEAP schedule for deliveries is another driver. Those are three of the big ones. We're continuing to support our customers to make sure we have the inventory available.

當然。是的。我知道當時的共識大約是零。我們的 AOP 中使用了一點現金。不幸的是，它的成長是由於利率——利率上升的時機本質上是一個驅動因素。某些軍事項目的供應鏈挑戰是另一個驅動因素。LEAP 的交貨時間表是另一個驅動因素。這是其中三個大的。我們將繼續為客戶提供支持，以確保我們有可用的庫存。

As we've said before, we have longer lead times than the frozen window for customer order changes. So that inventory will get used. We see a lot of that liquidating in the second half of the year. The diversified mix of programs that are impacted, which means that we have high confidence that a lot of those will liquidate and a few of them don't. It's not going to be deadly to the overall forecast. So it's really working capital driven. It's timing, but it's the right thing to do support our customers.

正如我們之前所說，我們的交貨時間比客戶訂單變更的凍結窗口更長。這樣庫存就會被使用。我們看到今年下半年有很多資金被清算。受到影響的項目多種多樣，這意味著我們非常有信心其中許多項目將被清算，而其中一些則不會。這不會對整體預測造成致命影響。所以這確實是營運資金驅動的。現在正是時候，但支持我們的客戶是正確的事情。

And remember, 73% of our profit in Q1 was aftermarket. So it's really about the aftermarket. Even though it's a third of sales, that's going to continue to drive the cash flow and profitability. It has near-term opportunities we're going to seize on, and we're continuing to build the longer-term OEM deliveries that see things like the 787 landing gear overhaul and maybe 12 years later, but all these programs are going to pay off in the aftermarket in addition to the OEM contribution, which is less than the aftermarket.

請記住，我們第一季 73% 的利潤來自售後市場。所以這其實與售後市場有關。儘管佔銷售額的三分之一，但這將繼續推動現金流和獲利能力。它有我們要抓住的近期機會，我們正在繼續建立長期的 OEM 交付，例如 787 起落架大修，也許 12 年後，但所有這些項目都會付出代價在售後市場除了OEM的貢獻外，這比售後市場還少。

Okay. Yeah, I think consensus is neutral because I thought on the last call, you pointed to neutral in the second quarter followed by generation in the third and fourth, but maybe if there's something that was lost there?

好的。是的，我認為共識是中性的，因為我認為在上次電話會議中，您指出了第二季度的中性，然後是第三季度和第四季度的一代，但也許那裡丟失了一些東西？

Yeah, I probably said in the range of. So our planning was just a modest use in Q2 originally.

是的，我可能說的是在範圍內。所以我們的計劃最初只是在第二季進行了適度的使用。

It really is just a timing issue. It's not as if we bought the wrong parts and misjudged the market. We typically order these long lead parts 6 to 12 months in advance of need. So if Boeing changes their demand, which they have the right to do inside lead time, then you can get some overshoot on working capital, and that's what we're seeing in Q2.

這確實只是一個時間問題。這並不是說我們買錯零件，誤判了市場。我們通常會在需要前 6 至 12 個月訂購這些長引線零件。因此，如果波音公司改變了他們的需求，他們有權在交貨時間內這樣做，那麼你的營運資金可能會出現一些超調，這就是我們在第二季度看到的情況。

Okay. And then you've gone through this long simplification process through divestitures and are still sort of struggling to generate material free cash flow. Is it questioning for you whether you have to do more from a portfolio perspective? Or is there a point where you think about strategic alternatives to the whole for the benefit of the company or shareholders?

好的。然後，你透過資產剝離經歷了這個漫長的簡化過程，但仍然在努力產生實質的自由現金流。您是否有疑問是否需要從投資組合的角度做更多的事情？或者您會為了公司或股東的利益而考慮整體策略替代方案？

Fair question, Myles. It's something every quarter, we meet with the Board, and we look at all options that are available to the company, so it's not a new topic. In fact, I have a chart that I use with the Board that goes back to when we first started looking at each [opco] as well as the overall company. So we're always open to different outcomes that would enhance shareholder value. But we do feel that what we've consolidated the company down to -- through consolidations and divestitures is the right asset base.

公平的問題，邁爾斯。每個季度我們都會與董事會會面，研究公司可用的所有選項，所以這不是一個新主題。事實上，我有一張供董事會使用的圖表，可以追溯到我們第一次開始研究每個 [opco] 以及整個公司時的情況。因此，我們始終對能夠提高股東價值的不同結果持開放態度。但我們確實認為，我們透過合併和剝離將公司整合到了正確的資產基礎上。

Certainly, interiors is one we're going to continue to look at, but we need to restore the rates on that. We've got some pricing negotiations that are still pending with our customers. But I like the business that we have, actuation, engine controls, gear boxes, and interiors under the right conditions of volume.

當然，內裝是我們將繼續關注的一個，但我們需要恢復這方面的價格。我們還有一些尚未與客戶進行的定價談判。但我喜歡我們在適當的體積條件下擁有的業務，驅動、引擎控制、齒輪箱和內裝。

And we'd like to get our leverage down. We reduced it from 10 times to, I think, 4.9 times with the TPS divestiture. This year, we're on path to reduce it, 3.5 times. We have a line of sight over our planning horizon to get it down to 2 times. And then we can start thinking differently. But right now, we're comfortable with our balance sheet structure, and we don't see a need to do any major divestitures to maintain our leverage and cash flow.

我們希望降低槓桿率。透過 TPS 剝離，我們將其從 10 倍減少到了 4.9 倍。今年，我們計劃將其減少 3.5 倍。我們的規劃範圍內有一個視線，可以將其減少到 2 倍。然後我們就可以開始以不同的方式思考。但目前，我們對資產負債表結構感到滿意，我們認為沒有必要進行任何重大剝離來維持我們的槓桿率和現金流。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Seth Seifman, JPMorgan.

賽斯‧塞夫曼，摩根大通。

Good morning. This is Rocco on for Seth. Have you begun to see any destocking of Triumph's work at Boeing? And how is the Airbus rate ramp delay impacting Triumph?

早安.這是賽斯的羅科。您是否已經開始看到凱旋在波音的庫存減少了？空中巴士的速率提升延遲對凱旋有何影響？

I'm going to -- I want to play that back. Have we started to see destocking from Boeing?

我要——我想回放一下。我們是否已經開始看到波音公司去庫存了？

Yeah.

是的。

So we did lower our backlog consistent with the pushout of MAX orders in the quarter even though backlog was still up, I think, 8% in aggregate despite that. Boeing is -- we looked at their delivery, and they're starting -- they're getting close to shipping their finished goods aircraft that's coming down in a pretty steady fashion. So this will pivot from, I'll call it, depressed build rates to higher build rates over the next year. But we did take action on the backlog and expect that to reverse. Did that address your question or did I miss it?

因此，我們確實降低了積壓訂單，與本季 MAX 訂單的推出保持一致，儘管積壓訂單仍然增加，我認為，總計增加了 8%。波音公司——我們查看了他們的交付情況，他們正在開始——他們即將交付成品飛機，而成品飛機正在以相當穩定的方式下降。因此，這將從（我稱之為）低迷的建造率轉向明年更高的建造率。但我們確實對積壓問題採取了行動，並預期這種情況會扭轉。這解決了你的問題還是我錯過了？

Yeah. And just the Airbus rate ramp delay, is that impacting Triumph?

是的。只是空中巴士的速率上升延遲會影響凱旋嗎？

So modestly, it's such a robust rate already. We would have liked to have seen it head north in our fiscal '25. We're building like on the A320-X family about 50 a month, and we're headed 60 next year and then into the 70s thereafter. And so it's really just a question of the profile to get there. So it's one of our top three or four programs, but it's steady enough build rate that we're meeting all of our, I'll call it, economic production quantity thresholds, and we're able to support them in the aftermarket as well, as Jim mentioned. So yes, it's impacting them. I know they've talked about it because they've set a very high bar for their output because of the huge backlog of orders. But from a supplier point of view, it's not impacting us.

謙虛地說，這個利率已經非常強勁了。我們希望看到它在 25 財年向北發展。我們正在像 A320-X 系列一樣每月生產 50 架，明年將達到 60 架，此後將達到 70 架。因此，實現這一目標實際上只是個人資料的問題。所以它是我們最重要的三四個項目之一，但它的構建速度足夠穩定，我們滿足了所有的，我稱之為經濟生產數量閾值，並且我們也能夠在售後市場支持它們正如吉姆提到的。所以是的，這正在影響他們。我知道他們已經談論過這個問題，因為由於大量積壓的訂單，他們為產量設定了非常高的標準。但從供應商的角度來看，這並沒有影響我們。

Great, thank you. Then are you concerned by the grounding of the V-22 following the accident a few months ago? And should that weigh on defense results for the year?

太好了，謝謝。那麼您對幾個月前發生事故後V-22停飛是否感到擔憂？這是否會影響今年的國防成績？

The V-22 crash that happened was unrelated to the hardware, the Triumph supplies. It was an engine-related defect. It's been publicly reported, not the pylon conversion actuators that we supply. However, when they limit the use of the aircraft or pause its use, it does have an impact on OEM deliveries and to some extent, aftermarket. And that was part of the softness that Jim reported in our military business.

發生的 V-22 事故與凱旋提供的硬體無關。這是與引擎相關的缺陷。這是公開報導的，而不是我們提供的塔架轉換執行器。然而，當他們限制飛機的使用或暫停其使用時，確實會對原始設備製造商的交付以及在某種程度上對售後市場產生影響。這就是吉姆在我們的軍事業務中所報告的軟弱的一部分。

The longer term, the V-22 is going to be in operation for decades. And the Valor V-280 is coming up behind it and other platforms are a long way from fielding. So we expect the demand for those actuators to continue, and we're confident in the quality of the hardware we're shipping.

從長遠來看，V-22 將運行數十年。Valor V-280 緊隨其後，而其他平台距離部署還有很長的路要走。因此，我們預計對這些執行器的需求將持續下去，並且我們對我們所運輸的硬體的品質充滿信心。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

Ron Epstein, Bank of America.

羅恩愛潑斯坦，美國銀行。

Hey, guys. Can you hear me okay?

嘿，夥計們。你聽得到我說話嗎？

Yes, Ron.

是的，羅恩。

Hey, good morning. What are you guys factoring into your outlook for the possibility of the strike? I mean, it seems like a pretty high probability. The question is just how long this is, right? How are you thinking about that? And how is that kind of factored into your outlook?

嘿，早安。你們對罷工可能性的看法是怎麼樣的呢？我的意思是，這似乎是一個相當高的可能性。問題是這有多長，對吧？你覺得怎麼樣？您的觀點是如何考慮這一點的？

So when we adopted our build rate for the year, we call it past three of our annual operating plan. We assume demand on the order of 30 a month for most of our factories, as I mentioned. And so we're pretty de-rated already. And that's an average over the course of the year, 360 shipsets. If they have a dip that goes down associated with any strike, and I don't have any intel that says they will have one. We'll likely just build inventory and not adjust our build rates.

因此，當我們採用今年的建設率時，我們將其稱為年度營運計劃的三分之二。正如我所提到的，我們假設大多數工廠的需求量約為每月 30 個。所以我們的評級已經被大幅降低了。這是一年中的平均數量，即 360 艘船。如果他們的股價下跌與任何罷工有關，我沒有任何情報表明他們會下跌。我們可能只會建立庫存，而不調整我們的建造率。

Boeing has been a responsible prime and allowing the supply chain to continue to build at economic rates where they can. I mean, there's a limit, obviously. But I'm sure you've asked Brian West, am I investing in supplier -- protecting suppliers, and he'd say, yeah, I've got billions of dollars of inventory to prove it. So I expect them to continue that behavior as opposed to, hey, everybody stop production, we're on strike. If it were to be protracted, yeah, the rates might be adjusted. But I'll know more about that in the coming -- we all will in the coming days and weeks.

波音公司一直是負責任的領導者，並允許供應鏈繼續以盡可能經濟的速度建造。我的意思是，顯然有一個限制。但我確信你問過布萊恩·韋斯特，我是否投資於供應商——保護供應商，他會說，是的，我有數十億美元的庫存來證明這一點。所以我希望他們繼續這種行為，而不是，嘿，每個人都停止生產，我們正在罷工。如果要延長的話，是的，費率可能會調整。但我會在未來了解更多——我們都會在未來幾天和幾週內了解更多。

We have contingency plans operationally that if should it happen and they send signals in the portal to reduce the rate, we know how to de-staff. We know how to furlough people, reduce over time, and put notice out to our suppliers. So the mechanisms are in place, but I don't think we're going to end up having to do it.

我們有應急計劃，如果發生這種情況，他們會在門戶中發送信號以降低費率，我們知道如何裁員。我們知道如何讓員工休假、隨著時間的推移減少人員的數量，並向我們的供應商發出通知。因此，機制已經到位，但我認為我們最終不必這樣做。

Got it. And then can you speak to a little bit -- you mentioned it, it's on your slides, the electric aircraft gearbox development. What are you doing there and who's it for and so on and so forth?

知道了。然後你能談談嗎——你提到過，它在你的幻燈片上，電動飛機變速箱的開發。你在那裡做什麼？

Yeah. Well, in preparing for our remarks today, I wanted to talk about the name of the prime because it's a prime you would know. They didn't want us to mention it. But let me just describe the application.

是的。好吧，在準備今天的演講時，我想談談素數的名稱，因為這是你會知道的素數。他們不想讓我們提起這件事。但讓我簡單描述一下應用程式。

So today, a lot of regional jets are turboprops. And they have gearboxes that connect let's say, Pratt & Whitney PT6 engine to the propeller and these gearboxes don't go away when you adopt electrification. In fact, they become the critical link between the electric motors, which spin at a very high rate and the prop, which spins at a lower rate. So the gearbox has stepped down that rotational speed, whether it's prop or it's a helicopter rotor.

所以今天，很多支線飛機都是渦輪螺旋槳飛機。他們的變速箱可以將 Pratt & Whitney PT6 引擎連接到螺旋槳，當您採用電氣化時，這些變速箱不會消失。事實上，它們成為高速旋轉的電動馬達和低速旋轉的螺旋槳之間的關鍵環節。因此，無論是螺旋槳或直升機旋翼，變速箱都會降低轉速。

Now, the design of it is different because you're not getting a single shaft input from a turbine motor; you're getting input from maybe four parallel electric motors. And what they're trying to do, the prime is trying to do is to build a clean sheet aircraft that takes advantage of this new architecture while still maintaining, I'll call it, an airframe that looks similar, but underneath the skin, it's got a place for the batteries to reside. It's got our gearboxes, it's got these new electric motors, it's got new engine controls because you don't need to worry about fuel pressure. It's got more electric actuation. So you don't need a hydraulic system.

現在，它的設計有所不同，因為您不再從渦輪發動機獲得單軸輸入；而是從渦輪發動機獲得單軸輸入。您可能會從四個並聯電動馬達獲得輸入。他們正在嘗試做的事情，總理正在嘗試做的是建造一架乾淨的飛機，利用這種新的架構，同時仍然保持，我稱之為，看起來相似的機身，但在皮膚下面，它有一個放置電池的地方。它有我們的變速箱，有新的電動馬達，有新的引擎控制裝置，因為您無需擔心燃油壓力。它有更多的電動驅動。所以你不需要液壓系統。

Since you don't have a traditional engine, you don't have an AMAD that's providing an accessory engine gearbox that drives things like hydraulic pumps. So all those subsystem architectures have changed, and they have funded us to lead the design of that gearbox. So look for Triumph to continue to support those kind of applications even as aircraft electrification advances.

由於您沒有傳統的發動機，因此您沒有 AMAD 來提供驅動液壓泵等設備的輔助發動機變速箱。因此，所有這些子系統架構都發生了變化，他們資助我們領導該變速箱的設計。因此，即使飛機電氣化不斷進步，凱旋也將繼續支援此類應用。

And then maybe one more on the landing gear system for Kratos. How much new design landing gear has Triumph actually done?

然後也許還有關於奎托斯起落架系統的一件事。凱旋實際上做了多少新設計的起落架？

Well, by platform quite a bit. I mentioned the BETA eVTOL. We also did the Sirius Business Jet aircraft. We did the Dream Chaser, nose wheel gearing, which looks more like space shuttle, it's got heat shields on it. And then we've done now the -- this X 258. And we support some of the small military aircraft. We're involved in some of the classified work that I can't discuss.

嗯，以平台來說相當多。我提到了 BETA eVTOL。我們也生產了天狼星商務噴射機。我們做了“追夢者”，前輪傳動裝置，看起來更像太空梭，上面有隔熱罩。然後我們現在就完成了──這個 X 258。我們也支援一些小型軍用飛機。我們參與了一些我不能討論的機密工作。

So I'd say it's a very broad set of applications, not particularly on large programs in terms of production volume, but a very good mix of platforms. And that's our niche. There are other people that have the high volume, large aircraft, but they are also -- they've been negotiated down on price over multiple rounds whereas we tend to do pretty well on these shorter run applications.

所以我想說這是一組非常廣泛的應用程序，不是特別是在生產量方面的大型程序，而是一個非常好的平台組合。這就是我們的利基市場。還有其他人擁有高產量、大型飛機，但他們也是——他們已經透過多輪談判壓低了價格，而我們往往在這些短期運行的應用程式上做得很好。

Got it, thank you.

明白了，謝謝。

Cai von Rumohr, TD Cowen.

蔡·馮·魯莫爾，TD·考恩。

Thanks so much and good quarter. Two-part question on Boeing rates. 787, where are you now? And where do you expect to go and when?

非常感謝，祝您季度愉快。關於波音費率的兩部分問題。 787，你現在在哪裡？您預計什麼時候去哪裡？

And secondly, when does the MAX go up? Because if you do 160 ship sets, essentially that looks like you're running 12 to 14 for the entire year.

其次，MAX什麼時候上升？因為如果您製作 160 艘船，基本上您將全年運行 12 到 14 艘。

Okay. I'll start with 787. So we adopted an assumption that is between 53 and 63 shipsets this year. So if you divide that by 12, you get the 4.5 to 5 a month. It depends on the factory and I don't mean to make this complicated, Cai, just -- it really is a function of buffer stock inventory what we ship.

好的。我將從 787 開始。所以我們今年採用的假設是53到63艘船隊。因此，如果你將其除以 12，你就會得到每月 4.5 到 5 個。這取決於工廠，我並不是想讓事情變得複雜，蔡，只是——這確實是我們運送的緩衝庫存的函數。

The portal demands that are in the system from Boeing for us are higher. They are between five and eight per month with our Clemmons site that builds actuation, landing gear actuation components at that higher rate. So it's a little bit of a head scratcher in terms of why are some factories lower than others, but we're pleased that the 787 actual demand is coming out higher than what we adopted for the basis of our AOP. And that's part of why Jim was able to reference higher commercial OEM volume in the quarters because 787 is pretty strong.

波音系統中的門戶對我們的要求更高。我們的克萊蒙斯工廠每月生產五到八個，該工廠以更高的速度製造驅動、起落架驅動組件。因此，為什麼有些工廠的需求低於其他工廠，這有點令人費解，但我們很高興 787 的實際需求高於我們 AOP 基礎所採用的需求。這就是 Jim 能夠在本季度提到更高的商業 OEM 銷售的部分原因，因為 787 相當強勁。

Now, looking ahead, what we look to happen on the 787, is that in our fiscal '26, we forecast that to get up to maybe eight a month universally across all of the factories, not just Clemmons, but Yakima and interiors as well because interiors is a big 787 provider. They're building -- interiors is building at about 4.5 per month today. And what we're seeing in the portal for interiors is about six a month. So sorry to be complicated in my response, but it does vary by plant.

現在，展望未來，我們希望787 上發生的事情是，在我們的26 財年，我們預測所有工廠的產量可能會達到每月8 架，不僅是克萊蒙斯工廠，還有亞基馬工廠和內裝工廠因為 Interiors 是一家大型 787 供應商。他們現在以每月 4.5 左右的速度建造室內裝潢。我們在室內裝潢入口網站上看到的內容大約是每月六個。很抱歉我的回答很複雜，但它確實因植物而異。

You asked -- the first question was about 737?

你問——第一個問題是關於737？

Right, because the $160 million basically looks like you run the whole year at about 12% to 14%. So when does that go up? And what does it go to?

是的，因為 1.6 億美元基本上看起來你全年的運行速度約為 12% 到 14%。那什麼時候會漲呢？它有什麼用呢？

So I really have to defer to Boeing in terms of the shape of their ramp. We have our own internal forecast by month. I'm looking at it right here guide. I mean, we can see step ups happening in September and then November and sort of leveling out at 38 in our Q4, which is January to March. So it's a pretty -- it's -- we've modeled a two- to three-step increase between now and then Boeing does like to keep their steps constant for a period of time.

所以我真的必須尊重波音公司的坡道形狀。我們有自己的每月內部預測。我正在看這裡指南。我的意思是，我們可以看到 9 月和 11 月出現了上升，並在第四季度（即 1 月至 3 月）趨於平穩，達到 38。所以這是一個漂亮的——我們已經模擬了從現在到那時波音確實希望在一段時間內保持其步伐不變的兩到三步增長。

They don't want to step monthly. They like to step in six-month increments, but I'll defer to them on the actual shape of the ramp.

他們不想每個月踏一步。他們喜歡以六個月為增量，但我會尊重他們關於坡道的實際形狀。

Terrific. And just one for you, Jim. Pension contribution, I didn't see any in the first quarter. I believe in your initial guide, you had something like $23 million, how much is that contribution expected to be? And when will it hit?

了不起。吉姆，只為你準備一份。退休金繳款，第一季我沒有看到任何繳款。我相信在您最初的指南中，您有大約 2300 萬美元，預計捐款金額是多少？什麼時候會發生？

So Cai, it's spread out throughout the year. There was none in the first quarter. There's more payments throughout the year. So they'll be spread over the balance of the year. I don't have the exact timing, but I think you can look to be spread pretty evenly over the balance of the year.

所以蔡，一年四季都流傳著。第一季沒有。全年付款次數較多。因此，它們將分佈在今年剩餘的時間。我沒有確切的時間安排，但我認為你可以在一年中的剩餘時間看到相當均勻的分佈。

Excellent. Thanks so much.

出色的。非常感謝。

Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.

希拉·卡哈奧格魯，杰弗里斯。

Good morning, Dan and Jim. Thanks so much. So first question for you, maybe on systems and support. If we exclude that IP sale, it looks like margins were 14.5%, about flat year on year, but we're modeling at about 500 basis points of acceleration as we exit the year, so just gradually ramping. How do we get comfortable with the systems and support margin outlook?

早上好，丹和吉姆。非常感謝。那麼第一個問題可能是關於系統和支援的。如果我們排除智慧財產權銷售，看起來利潤率為 14.5%，與去年同期持平，但我們在今年結束時以大約 500 個基點的加速進行建模，因此只是逐漸增加。我們如何適應系統並支持利潤前景？

The IP sale of $5 million this quarter compares to $3 million that was in the prior-year quarter. So it's just more than we've had previously. I think the margins are still up even if you took those out, but the fact is those are normal course for us now. We're continuing to improve our older programs that we -- others see more value than we do in running them out, and that helps provide some cash. But systems and support outperformed its plan in the first quarter. It continues to outperform. The aftermarket is very strong there.

本季 IP 銷售額為 500 萬美元，而去年同期為 300 萬美元。所以這比我們之前的要多。我認為即使你把這些去掉，利潤率仍然會上升，但事實是這些現在對我們來說是正常的過程。我們正在繼續改進我們的舊計劃，其他人認為這些計劃比我們用完它們更有價值，這有助於提供一些現金。但第一季的系統和支援超出了計劃。它繼續跑贏大盤。那裡的售後市場非常強大。

So, can you repeat the second part of your question on where you're looking where it was going for the full year?

那麼，您能否重複問題的第二部分，即您對全年情況的展望？

Yeah, just -- I was more talking about the absolute margin of like 14.5% as we think about exiting the year, we get to about 19%. So how do margins improve so much as we exit the year?

是的，只是——我更多地談論的是 14.5% 左右的絕對利潤率，當我們考慮今年結束時，我們達到了 19% 左右。那麼，今年結束時，利潤率是如何提高這麼多的呢？

Yeah. So it's volume driven. Remember that this year, we have a couple of things going on. We've got price coming in. So we got $75 million of price, and we've got volume increasing. So in systems and support as I look at my volume over the course of the year.

是的。所以它是數量驅動的。請記住，今年我們發生了幾件事。我們已經收到價格了。所以我們得到了 7500 萬美元的價格，而且銷量也在增加。因此，當我回顧這一年的交易量時，在系統和支援方面。

Despite the second-quarter challenges for geared that I spoke about, there's significant increases in Q3 and Q4, so it's volume driven. There's some price -- remember, we took $40 million of annualized cost out as well across the company. So we're going to see benefits from that, too. So three of those are what's contributing towards the rate that you said, which is very much in the reasonable range for the full year.

儘管我談到了第二季的裝備挑戰，但第三季和第四季有顯著成長，因此它是銷售驅動的。這是有一定代價的——記住，我們在整個公司範圍內扣除了 4000 萬美元的年化成本。所以我們也會從中看到好處。因此，其中三個因素對您所說的利率做出了貢獻，這在全年的合理範圍內。

Sheila, you remember that old saying about forecasting is difficult, particularly about the future. Last year, we slowed down our rate on GE LEAP in the second quarter. And then they called us and said, forget that, throttles forward, we need more shipment out of you. We almost recovered to the full original AOP by the end of the year. And we may see that this year depending on how things progress, but they did notify us of fewer demand for the gearboxes that we produce for them and we adjust our outlook accordingly.

希拉，你還記得關於預測是困難的那句老話，尤其是關於未來的預測。去年，我們在第二季放慢了 GE LEAP 的投資速度。然後他們打電話給我們說，忘了這一點，節流前進，我們需要你們提供更多的貨物。到年底我們幾乎恢復到完整的原始 AOP。今年我們可能會看到這種情況，具體取決於事情的進展，但他們確實通知我們，對我們為他們生產的變速箱的需求減少，我們相應地調整了我們的前景。

I would say stay tuned through Q2, Q3, and we may, in fact, see the pendulum swing back to producing at higher rates for the narrow body. We're not counting on that. That's not in our forecast, but we'll be prepared for it. And we have the inventory to do it. I think if you look to the prior years, look at the trends on the margins prior year, it's very consistent that we'll be achieving what we're forecasting for this year.

我想說的是，請繼續關注第二季度和第三季度，事實上，我們可能會看到窄體產品的產量又回到了更高的水平。我們不指望這一點。這不在我們的預測範圍內，但我們會為此做好準備。我們有足夠的庫存來做到這一點。我認為，如果你回顧一下前幾年，看看前一年的邊緣趨勢，你會發現我們今年將實現我們的預測，這是非常一致的。

And maybe on free cash flow, what's sort of the OE rate assumption you have baked in to get to cash positive in the second half in Q3 and Q4?

也許在自由現金流方面，為了在第三季和第四季下半年實現正現金，您所採用的 OE 利率假設是怎樣的？

So as we said, we're $70 million to $90 million to use in Q3. We'll be positive in -- I'm sorry, in Q2 we're $70 million to $90 million to use, we'll be positive in Q3, and then will be very positive in Q4. Again, similar to prior seasonality that we've seen in prior years.

正如我們所說，我們在第三季使用了 7,000 萬至 9,000 萬美元。我們將在 - 對不起，在第二季度我們將使用 7000 萬至 9000 萬美元，我們將在第三季度保持積極態度，然後在第四季度將非常積極。同樣，與我們前幾年看到的季節性相似。

Okay. And last question on the aftermarket demand. MRO ex that IP sale, MRO was up 37%, so double that of peers. So what's kind of driving that, and how do we think about full-year aftermarket growth?

好的。最後一個問題是關於售後市場需求。MRO 除 IP 銷售外，MRO 成長了 37%，是同業的兩倍。那麼是什麼推動了這個趨勢，我們如何看待全年售後市場的成長？

So aftermarket is a -- it's a reflection of legacy fleets operating longer because of demand. I mean, you fly a lot to TSA just at their highest post-COVID throughput 3 million a couple of weeks ago. They need these jets. I mean, I've been flying on wide bodies lately for domestic routes that I never expected to, but I really like it. And we are seeing it strong on military platforms as well in support of readiness. We had some FMS spares come through in the quarter. We're seeing army engine control replenishment orders come through. Actuation, as I mentioned, had strong aftermarket. So it's not been a single opco or site that saw the aftermarket demand. It's been pretty broad-based. And I was also asked and we see this running out in a year or two's time.

因此，售後市場反映了傳統車隊因需求而運行時間更長。我的意思是，幾週前，您經常飛往 TSA，其吞吐量是新冠疫情後最高的 300 萬。他們需要這些噴射機。我的意思是，我最近一直在乘坐寬體客機執飛國內航線，這是我從未預料到的，但我真的很喜歡它。我們看到它在軍事平台上的強大作用以及對戰備狀態的支援。本季我們收到了一些 FMS 備件。我們看到陸軍引擎控制補給訂單已經下達。正如我所提到的，Acuation 擁有強大的售後市場。因此，並不是任何一家營運公司或網站都看到了售後市場的需求。它的基礎相當廣泛。我也被問到了，我們預計這段時間將在一兩年內耗盡。

Now, I'm starting to think it's going to be running through the decade. I don't think we're going to see between the military conflicts that are happening and the delay and ramp versus the backlog of aircraft orders. I don't see aftermarket trending down now for several years. So it's going to be -- I think it will be a good tailwind for us.

現在，我開始認為它將持續十年。我認為我們不會看到正在發生的軍事衝突、延誤和飛機訂單積壓之間的關係。我認為售後市場幾年內不會出現下降趨勢。所以我認為這對我們來說將是一個很好的推動力。

And I mentioned AAR, but we also use VSE and Triman as distribution partners, and they're doing a very good job finding spares and repair opportunities for us, and we're not doing this by ourselves.

我提到了 AAR，但我們也使用 VSE 和 Triman 作為分銷合作夥伴，他們在為我們尋找備件和維修機會方面做得非常好，而我們並不是自己做這件事。

All right, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Noah Poponak, Goldman Sachs.

諾亞·波波納克，高盛。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Good morning.

早安.

Jim, you just alluded to the free cash flow seasonality being similar to the past, but with the 1Q actual and what you just guided to for 2Q, the use in the first half would be about twice the size of the last two years when you had negative full year and the positive in the back half would need to be larger to get to the full year. So directionally, it looks similar, but the order of magnitude is much different. And I guess, it sounds like you're pointing to working capital and the volatility from Boeing, but you've got a revenue plan for the year of kind of flat organically. You're up a little in the quarter. You're saying aerospace OE revenue was up a little in the quarter. Defense is kind of flat. Aftermarket is really good. You've talked about and others have, Boeing kind of pulling at the higher rates they plan to get to from the supply chain, not really changing that.

吉姆，您剛剛提到自由現金流季節性與過去相似，但根據第一季的實際情況和您剛剛指導的第二季度的情況，上半年的使用量將是過去兩年的兩倍左右，當您全年為負數，下半年的正數需要更大才能達到全年。所以從方向來看，看起來很相似，但是數量級卻有很大不同。我想，聽起來你指的是波音的營運資金和波動性，但你今年的營收計畫基本上持平。本季你的表現有所上升。您是說航空航天原始設備收入在本季略有成長。防守有點平淡。售後確實不錯。你和其他人都談過，波音公司提高了他們計劃從供應鏈獲得的利率，但並沒有真正改變這一點。

So I guess with all of that, it's kind of like everything I know, except for your final answer on cash flow, would make me think that your cash flow did not have massive use of working capital and burn in the first half and a much different profile than the past two years, yet it does. What's -- what am I missing? What's the missing piece there? I mean, did you just ship a lot more on the front end than others in the industry? Or is there something different contractually between you versus others in the industry? I'm struggling to understand that much different shape of cash flow compared to revenue.

所以我想，綜上所述，這有點像我所知道的一切，除了你關於現金流的最終答案，會讓我認為你的現金流沒有大量使用營運資金，並在上半年消耗了很多與過去兩年不同，但確實如此。我缺什麼？那裡缺少什麼？我的意思是，你們在前端的交付量是否比業內其他人多得多？或者您與業內其他人之間的合約是否有不同？我很難理解現金流與收入的截然不同的形式。

Yeah. So there's no simple answer because there are a lot of programs we're talking about. We did use more cash this year than last year. I think what you saw was a lot of customers giving us early payments and advances in Q4 this year more so than they did a year ago. So we had some of that reverse itself in Q1.

是的。所以沒有簡單的答案，因為我們正在討論很多程序。我們今年確實比去年使用了更多的現金。我認為您看到的是，今年第四季度有很多客戶比一年前更多地向我們提供了提前付款和預付款。因此，我們在第一季發生了一些逆轉。

Q2 is really a story of increasing working capital because we can't ship everything because the ramps are delayed because we have some supply chain challenges. And that's going to ship out in the second half of the year. So there is higher cash in the second half of the year in the continuing business than last year. Remember, you got to look at last year ex the product support business. And Q4, conservatively is when most of the working capital reduction is, but there's a portion in Q3 as well. So you're right that it's a little more exaggerated than it was in prior years, but it's the same profile. Magnitude is just a little higher in the second half.

第二季度實際上是一個增加營運資金的故事，因為我們無法運送所有東西，因為我們面臨一些供應鏈挑戰而導致坡道延遲。該產品將於今年下半年出貨。因此，下半年持續經營業務的現金量比去年更高。請記住，您必須看看去年的產品支援業務。保守地說，第四季是大部分營運資金減少的時間，但第三季也有一部分。所以你說得對，它比前幾年有點誇張，但輪廓是一樣的。下半場的幅度稍高一些。

Okay. Can you quantify what you're assuming for working capital use in the first half and what you're assuming for positive working capital in the second half, roughly?

好的。您能否大致量化一下您對上半年營運資金使用情況的假設以及對下半年正營運資金的假設？

I don't have the working capital line itself to talk about, I just have the total cash flow. But as we used $113 million in Q1, we're saying we could use in the range of $70 million to $90 million in Q2. You're going to see significant generation in Q3 but the majority of the generation in the second half will be in Q4.

我沒有營運資金額度本身可談，我只有總現金流。但由於我們在第一季使用了 1.13 億美元，因此我們說第二季可以使用 7,000 萬至 9,000 萬美元。您將在第三季度看到大量的一代，但下半年的大部分世代將在第四季度。

Okay. The six points of price that you've talked about, how did that look in the first quarter?

好的。您談到的六點價格，第一季情況如何？

We benefited from it. Again, I don't have the exact amount of price that hit Q1. Remember, it's not just price, it's cost out as well. But $75 million of price planned in the year, $65 million was already under contract. So you can assume roughly a quarter of that $65 million, but then I would de-rate it for the sales as a percentage of the full year.

我們從中受益匪淺。同樣，我沒有第一季的確切價格。請記住，這不僅僅是價格，還有成本。但當年計畫的價格為 7,500 萬美元，其中 6,500 萬美元已經簽約。因此，您可以假設大約是 6500 萬美元的四分之一，但隨後我會降低銷售額佔全年的百分比。

Yeah. We continue to see strength in pricing because of the supply chain constraints and people still investing in sources to make sure they can support a ramp when it comes or military.

是的。由於供應鏈的限制，我們繼續看到定價的強勢，而且人們仍在對資源進行投資，以確保他們能夠在軍事或軍事方面支持斜坡。

As I look at our last 10 price ups, more than half are military related. So we're getting quite a bit of price on that side as well. That helps us and remember, we negotiated a lot of these things back in '22, and they're just now dropping in here because we typically negotiate them outside lead time. And most of these are our IP.

當我查看最近 10 次價格上漲時，超過一半與軍事相關。所以我們在這方面也得到了相當多的價格。這有助於我們記住，我們在 22 年就協商了很多這樣的事情，而他們現在才來到這裡，因為我們通常在交貨時間之外協商它們。其中大部分是我們的IP。

There's a few that are -- were sole-source, build-to-print, but it's so hard to switch. Even an example on the Apache, we do gearboxes and we replaced a near bankrupt supplier on that. And it was a very painful transition. We did it. We're performing reliably now, and we've gotten price on it since because they don't want to go through that again. So I think we'll see price continue to be a tailwind; we're not done. These LTAs keep renewing on an annual basis.

有一些是——是獨家來源、按圖生產的，但很難切換。甚至以阿帕契為例，我們生產變速箱，取代了瀕臨破產的供應商。這是一個非常痛苦的轉變。我們做到了。我們現在的表現非常可靠，而且我們已經為此付出了代價，因為他們不想再經歷同樣的事情了。因此，我認為我們將看到價格繼續成為推動因素；我們還沒完成。這些長期協議每年都會更新。

And this is also a part of why we're doing the new product development so that we can claim more value. And we may ultimately have better margins at lower delivered cost because we redesigned a product in a way it's got fewer parts and lighter weight, but it's got a higher performance for our customer.

這也是我們進行新產品開發以便獲得更多價值的部分原因。我們最終可能會以更低的交付成本獲得更好的利潤，因為我們重新設計了產品，零件更少，重量更輕，但為我們的客戶提供了更高的性能。

I'll give you an example. We just -- we're partnering with several primes on the vapor cycle cooling which has been a big part of our renovation of the West Hartford plant, and customers are very excited about us supporting their replacement of legacy cooling systems on the aircraft, and we'll have strong margins on that work. So it's an investment we made in years past that will pay off in the future.

我給你舉個例子。我們只是 - 我們正在與蒸汽循環冷卻方面的幾家主要公司合作，這是我們西哈特福德工廠改造的重要組成部分，客戶對我們支持他們更換飛機上的傳統冷卻系統感到非常興奮，並且我們將在這項工作上獲得豐厚的利潤。因此，這是我們過去幾年所做的投資，將在未來得到回報。

Okay, thanks. Thanks for the detail.

好的，謝謝。謝謝你的詳細資料。

Thanks, Noah.

謝謝，諾亞。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。