Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Hello and welcome to Triple Flag Precious Metals quarter one 2026 conference call. (Operator Instructions) Sheldon Vanderkooy, Triple Flag Precious Metals.

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us to discuss Triple Flag Precious Metals's first quarter 2026 results. With me on the call this morning is Eban Bari, our Chief Financial Officer and James Dendle, our Chief Operating Officer.

Triple Flag is also a record start in 2026, with Q1 representing the strongest quarter in the company's history across every key metric. This includes over 30,000 GEOs, $129 million of adjusted EBITDA, and operating cash flow per share of $0.55. These are all quarterly records. The quarter one result is a straightforward demonstration of the model working as intended, high-margin, top-line exposure to higher gold and silver prices translating into per-share cash flow growth of 67% year-over-year.

On the transaction front, we kicked off 2026 by unlocking the high-grade E44 gold deposit at North Parks, which was not previously included in Evolution's Life of Mine plan.

Triple Flag will receive guaranteed minimum delivery from E44 over seven years starting in 2030, which aligns with Evolution's approved plans for a block cave at E22 and a potential mill expansion to 10 million tons per annum, all of which position Northparks as a clear growth asset for Triple Flag.

Then in March, we acquired a 3% gross revenue royalty on the Gunnison Copper Project in Arizona for $23 million. James will walk you through the details, but this is an asset that fits precisely within our strategy of highly accretive transactions for projects and mining-friendly jurisdictions, in this case, the United States.

For our existing portfolio, our assets are performing ahead of our expectations. Hope-based construction decision is expected later this month with a production profile of at least 400,000 ounces per year. The mill at Beta Hunts has been approved for expansion to 2.6 million tons per annum, with a further potential growth to 4 million tons per annum. Connate's oxide circuit remains on track for production later this year. Fosterville is planning a 65% throughput increase that will boost production over the next three years.

And last, Arthur's feasibility work, permitting submission and drilling is underway on what AngloGold sees as a world-class deposit that will continue to grow for decades to come. Our first quarter performance, as well as the underlying achievements made by the assets within our portfolio, have us on track to deliver our 2026 guidance and our 2030 outlook of 140,000 to 150,000 GEOs.

I will not turn over to Eban to discuss our financial results for Q1 2026.

Thank you, Sheldon. As Sheldon highlighted, quarter one was a record quarter on every line item on this chart, with adjusted earnings up 125%, adjusted EBITDA up 82%, and most importantly, cash flow per share up 57% year-over-year.

Operating cash flow per share is the metric that most directly compounds shareholder value over time. This strong cash flow generation continues to support all of our capital allocation priorities given our high-margin business, including shareholder returns and external growth opportunities. We aim to pay a progressively growing dividend that's sustainable across all metal prices.

And we have increased our dividend every year since our IPO by about 5% mid-year. We will continue to assess the rate pace of further increases against the broader growth in capital deployment opportunity set.

In addition to our dividend, we have an active NCID and, as always, will buyback shares in the yield market on an opportunistic basis. We have a pristine balance sheet, an exit of quarter with $144 million worth of cash, no debt, and over $1 billion of liquidity available.

This gives us meaningful flexibility to continue executing on accretive growth opportunities, while funding our progressive dividend and to buy back shares when important.

With that, I will turn it over to James to walk you through the whole thing, Gunnison and our growth expectation beyond 2030.

Thanks, Eban. We hold a 1% NSR royalty in Hope Bay, which is one of the most exciting development assets in our portfolio. We expect a meaningful development in the next several weeks. The asset is an 80-kilometer greenstone belt in Nunavut, with over 90 regional exploration targets identified across the property.

Our royalty covers well over 1,000 square kilometers. AMECO's unparalleled Arctic operating capabilities are essential in ensuring the successful development and operation of projects at this scale and remoteness. A technical evaluation update is a construction decision that is expected by Agnico in May, which will highlight a 6,000 ton per day operation with the potential to be a 400,000 to 425,000 ads per year gold producer.

Hope-based exploration potential is also significant in areas such as package 7 of Madrid but also has the geological potential to support a multi-decade district across the broader 80-kilometer belt. As Sean mentioned, in late March, we completed the acquisition of a third-party 3% gross revenue royalty on the Gunnison Copper project in Arizona for $23 million, which is strongly increasing on a per-share basis. There are a few things that we particularly like about this transaction.

First, it is an existing royalty on a large-scale US copper project that is designed to be mined and processed using conventional methods. The updated PEA, released in February this year supports approximately GBP125 million of annual copper cathode production, totaling roughly GBP3.2 billion over a 21-year life of mine.

Second, the location is genuinely top tier. The project sits on a combination of prime and state land in Arizona, which we expect to help streamline the permitting with on-site power, rail, and water infrastructure already in place. Domestic US copper production is a strategic priority in the current environment. And Jonathan is positioned to deliver into this need.

And finally, I want to discuss the growth that our portfolio is expected to deliver beyond 2030 outside of our formal outlook. Arthur, Kaness, Hope Air, and North Parks represent world-class, long-line assets located in the most established mining jurisdictions.

They provide substantial growth potential beyond our 2030 outlook. At Arthur, a pre-feasibility study was released in February to drive the commencement and permitting in 2027. The current mine plan has been described by Anglo as the top of the iceberg, and they further noted that Arthur is a marquee asset that will anchor the portfolio into the 2050s. We're very excited about the development trajectory and potential of this Tier 1 gold asset. At Kaness, this flag holds at 100% Silver Street.

The January 2026 PEA supports a large-scale copper-gold-silver operation, reaching production by 2031, leveraging existing brownfield infrastructure and permits from previous mining operations. Notably, the PEA mine plan only represents 47% of the total indicated and inferred resource times, providing further upside potential.

For subsequent economic studies. I hope they have already covered, but its place in this slide is worth noting, a potential 400,000 to 425,000 amps per year producer with district-scale exploration upside along the 80-kilometer belt and construction decision expected this month.

And finally, North Park is Triple Plan's largest asset. Numerous growth projects have been recently approved, which will unlock value of more world-class copper-gold endowments, including the E22 blockade, the E44 gold open pair with minimum guaranteed deliveries, and most importantly, a potential mill expansion to at least 10 million tons, which is currently being expanded over the next year.

We believe that the mill expansion is the optimal path forward to unlock value for not only the 575 million tons of current measured indicator resource inventory, but other prospective and under-explored targets that could potentially and materially add to the potential production profile associated with the improved scale and processing optionality at North Parks.

Taken together, these core assets have diversified across long-life district-scale systems in Nevada, British Columbia, Nunavut, and Australia. They all operated by high-quality counterparties and represent the foundation for further organic growth beyond 2030.

I'll now pass back to Sheldon for closing remarks.

Thank you. We had a record start to the year, and we are positioned to achieve our 2026 guidance. We saw record growth in operating cash flow per share and deliver transactions that will benefit our shareholders for decades to come. Beyond 2030, Triple Flag shareholders can expect significant additional GEO growth from long-life, district-scale assets, including at North Parks, Arthur, Kemes, and Hope Bay.

Overall, Triple Flag is exceptionally well-positioned to deliver long-term and organic value to our shareholders from a diverse portfolio of producing and development assets.

Our balance sheet remains pristine. We are debt-free with over $140 million in cash and over $1 billion in available credit, providing us with substantial financial flexibility to continue pursuing creative growth opportunities for the benefit of our shareholders. That concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, please open the floor to questions.

(Operator Instructions)

Sam Overwater, Scotiabank.

Good morning, everyone, and congratulations on another great quarter. Could you please walk us through an M&A and transaction outlook update, specifically. Besides the transactions that Triple Play commonly engages, the mine life stage, the commodity, and any more information.

Thank you.

Yeah, certainly, Sam Overwater. I'll take that. This is Sheldon Vanderkooy. First of all, I'm just really pleased that we deployed 100 million plus in quarter one on very good terms. There continue to be many opportunities, and I'm confident we'll manage to do more in 2026.

With regards to what we're looking at, like, it's mostly precious, mostly good jurisdictions, a range of sizes, certainly in that $100 million to sub-$500 million range. And again, generally good jurisdictions that would be attractive for our shareholders.

Great. Thank you. Just one more tag on. What's the transactional look in Australia? Has Triple Flag been engaged in any opportunities there?

We really like Australia, of course. It's our single highest country concentration. We are active in Australia. We're also active in many other jurisdictions around the world.

Great. Thank you. That's all for me.

Thank you.

(Operator Instructions)

Brian McArthur, Raymond James.

Good morning. My question relates to the buyback options on the Gunnison agreement. And there's two parts of it. The royalty part, I think, is clear to me. But can you just go through? I thought there was a $65 million stream expansion payment. Now you're talking about a termination for $35.

Can you just update me exactly what's left and how the stream is working these days, please?

Yeah, certainly, Brian MacArthur. This is Sheldon Vanderkooy. I'll take that.

So, the royalty buydown option is pretty straightforward. Really, what we want to do in such context is we wanted to provide a pathway for a potential on a change of control to have a lower royalty burden on the property, which we think could unlock value for all parties. And it's had an attractive price for Triple Flag.

With respect to the stream, we have an option to fund an additional $65 billion.

And effectively, it's almost double the stream rate. What this would do is, instead of us funding $65 million to double the stream rate, they would pay $35 million to us in order to cancel that option on our part. I don't think anyone values our expansion option right now, so I think $35 million would be a pretty nice win for Trouble Flight.

Right. So you just get $35 for that option, but the 3.5%, the net percent, the 16.5%, that all stays in place. There's no change in step-downs or adjustments. Exactly. It's a clear payout of the option. Okay, great.

Exactly. It's not a reduction in our current stream at all.

Thanks very much, Sheldon. That's very clear.

Thanks, Brian.

Adam Marske, Bank of America.

Hi, thanks for taking my question. I've got a question on the buyback program, which has been underutilized to date. Perhaps you could comment on why there's been little activity there relative to other companies with buyback programs and what the outlook is going forward?

Yeah, thanks, Adam Marske. We've always been opportunistic with respect to the NCIB, and we've been, we've shown a willingness to employ on that from time to time.

All I would say is we do view our shares as being undervalued, and maybe I'll stop there, but, noted.

Thank you very much.

There's no further question at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Sheldon Vanderkoer for closing remarks.

Thank you, everyone. I really appreciate your attendance. It's been a fantastic start to the year, and I think it's going to be a fantastic finish for the year as well. So, appreciate all your time.

(Operator Instructions)

Thank you.

Take care.