Truist Financial Corporation (TFC) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Greetings, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Truist Financial Corporation second-quarter 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this event is being recorded.

    各位女士、先生,大家好,歡迎參加Truist Financial Corporation 2026年第二季財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 提醒各位,本活動將被錄音。

  • It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mr. Brad Milsaps.

    現在我很榮幸介紹本次會議主持人Brad Milsaps先生。

  • Brad Milsaps - Investor Relations

    Brad Milsaps - Investor Relations

  • Thank you, Rocco, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Truist's second-quarter 2026 earnings call. With us today are our Chairman and CEO, Bill Rogers; our CFO, Mike Maguire; our Chief Risk Officer, Brad Bender; as well as other members of the Truist senior management team.

    謝謝你,Rocco,大家早安。歡迎參加Truist 2026年第二季財報電話會議。今天與會者包括我們的董事長兼執行長Bill Rogers;財務長Mike Maguire;首席風險長Brad Bender;以及Truist高階管理團隊的其他成員。

  • During this morning's call, they will discuss Truist's second-quarter 2026 results, share their perspectives on current business conditions, and provide an update on our outlook for 2026. The company presentation, as well as our earnings release and supplemental financial information, are available on the Truist Investor Relations website, ir.truist.com.

    在今天上午的電話會議中,他們將討論Truist 2026年第二季的業績,分享對當前經營環境的觀點,並提供我們對2026年的展望更新。公司簡報,以及我們的財報新聞稿與補充財務資訊,皆可於Truist投資人關係網站 ir.truist.com 取得。

  • Our presentation today will include forward-looking statements and certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please review the disclosures on slides 2 and 3 of the presentation regarding these statements and measures, as well as the appendix, for required reconciliations to GAAP.

    我們今天的簡報將包含前瞻性陳述以及若干非GAAP財務衡量指標。請參閱簡報第2與第3頁投影片中關於這些陳述與衡量指標的揭露,以及附錄中所要求的與GAAP之調節表。

  • With that, I will turn it over to Bill.

    接下來,我把時間交給Bill。

  • William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Great. Thanks, Brad, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call today.

    很好。謝謝你,Brad。各位早安,也感謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。

  • Before we discuss our second-quarter 2026 results, let's begin, as we always do, with purpose on slide 4. At Truist, our purpose is to inspire and build better lives and communities, and that purpose continues to guide how we serve our clients, support our teammates, and create value for our stakeholders.

    在我們討論2026年第二季業績之前,先如同往常一樣,從第4頁投影片的使命開始。在Truist,我們的使命是啟發並打造更美好的生活與社區;這項使命持續引導我們如何服務客戶、支持同仁,並為利害關係人創造價值。

  • We also want to recognize that purpose is fueled by performance and committed leadership. During the second quarter, we announced that Mike Lyons will become Truist's next President and Chief Executive Officer on September 1. At that time, I'll transition to an Executive Chair role until my planned retirement in April of next year.

    我們也要強調,使命需要績效與堅定的領導力來驅動。在第二季,我們宣布Mike Lyons將於9月1日出任Truist下一任總裁兼執行長。屆時,我將轉任執行董事長一職,直到我計畫於明年4月退休為止。

  • As a founder of Truist, I am really excited about this important next chapter in our success journey. Mike's an accomplished and respected financial services leader with a proven ability to drive growth, improve performance, and create long-term shareholder value. Throughout the selection process, it was clear to our Board that he's the right leader for Truist's future. He'll be leading a strong and experienced senior team that's helped build our momentum and position the company for continued success.

    身為Truist的創辦人之一,我對我們成功旅程中這個重要的新篇章感到非常振奮。Mike是一位成就卓著且備受尊敬的金融服務業領導者,具備推動成長、改善績效並創造長期股東價值的實證能力。在遴選過程中,董事會清楚認為他是帶領Truist邁向未來的合適領導者。他將領導一支強大且經驗豐富的高階團隊,該團隊協助我們建立動能,並使公司具備持續成功的有利定位。

  • Mike recognizes the strength of our franchise and the significant opportunities ahead. He shares our commitment to building a high-performing company by serving our clients and teammates, improving profitability and returns, and delivering superior outcomes for our shareholders. I look forward to supporting Mike and our leadership team over the coming months to ensure a smooth transition and build on our momentum.

    Mike了解我們特許經營體系的優勢,以及前方重大的機會。他與我們同樣致力於打造高績效公司:透過服務客戶與同仁、提升獲利能力與報酬率,並為股東帶來更優異的成果。我期待在未來幾個月支持Mike與領導團隊,確保順利交接並延續我們的動能。

  • So now, let's turn to the results on slide 5. First, I want to step back and highlight what these results say about the progress we're making across Truist. Over the last several quarters, we've been clear about the actions we're taking to drive stronger returns, improve efficiency, and allocate capital to the highest value opportunities across the company.

    現在,讓我們看第5頁投影片的業績。首先,我想先退一步,強調這些結果反映出我們在Truist各方面所取得的進展。過去幾個季度,我們已清楚說明我們正在採取的行動,以推動更強的報酬、提升效率,並將資本配置到公司內最高價值的機會上。

  • We continue to make deliberate choices about where we grow, where we invest, and how we optimize our balance sheet. While some of these choices may create near-term trade-offs and individual growth metrics, they're producing the outcomes we intended and are driving stronger profitability and improved financial performance. Importantly, these results demonstrate that we're making meaningful progress in building a more earnings-efficient and more capital-efficient growth company.

    我們持續有意識地選擇在哪裡成長、在哪裡投資,以及如何優化資產負債表。雖然其中一些選擇可能在短期內對取捨與個別成長指標造成影響,但它們正產生我們預期的成果,並推動更強的獲利能力與更佳的財務表現。重要的是,這些結果顯示我們在打造一家獲利更有效率、資本更有效率的成長型公司方面,正取得實質進展。

  • As you can see on slide 5, our results show significant improvement in our profitability and returns. For the second quarter, we delivered net income available to common shareholders of $1.5 billion, or $1.23 per diluted share, representing a 37% increase over the second quarter of 2025.

    如第5頁投影片所示,我們的結果顯示獲利能力與報酬率顯著改善。第二季,我們交出歸屬普通股股東的淨利15億美元,或稀釋後每股盈餘1.23美元,較2025年第二季成長37%。

  • During the quarter, we added new clients, deepened existing relationships, and grew profitably in the businesses and products where we've chosen to focus. Along with our expense discipline, this contributed to more than 300 basis points of year-over-year positive operating leverage.

    本季我們新增客戶、深化既有關係,並在我們選擇聚焦的業務與產品上實現具獲利性的成長。加上我們的費用紀律,這促成了年對年超過300個基點的正向營運槓桿。

  • In addition, combined with disciplined capital deployment, our return on tangible common equity improved 310 basis points year over year to 15.4%. These results reinforce that we remain on track to deliver our full-year profitability and return objectives and provide confidence in our abilities to sustain this level of performance over time.

    此外,結合嚴謹的資本部署,我們的有形普通股權益報酬率(ROTCE)年對年提升310個基點至15.4%。這些結果再次證明,我們仍按計畫達成全年獲利能力與報酬目標,並讓我們對長期維持此一績效水準的能力更具信心。

  • So before I hand the call over to Mike, I'd like to highlight how our strategy is translating into tangible results across our business segments and our digital strategy, and we have that on slides 6 and 7. So let me start with Consumer and Small Business Banking.

    在我把電話交給Mike之前,我想重點說明我們的策略如何在各業務區塊與數位策略上轉化為具體成果,相關內容在第6與第7頁投影片。我先從消費者與小型企業銀行業務開始。

  • CSBB delivered another solid quarter that was consistent with our expectations and strategy to drive profitability improvement across the enterprise. Consumer behavior remained resilient during the quarter with stable liquidity, spending, and credit trends that remain within our expectations. Average Consumer and Small Business loans were up 2% versus the second quarter of 2025 as we slowed production in certain less strategic and less profitable Consumer categories, which Mike will discussed in more detail later in the call.

    CSBB本季再度交出穩健表現,符合我們提升全公司獲利能力的預期與策略。本季消費者行為仍具韌性,流動性、支出與信用趨勢保持穩定,且仍在我們的預期範圍內。消費者與小型企業平均放款較2025年第二季成長2%,因我們在某些策略性較低且獲利性較弱的消費者類別中放緩承作量;Mike將在稍後的會議中更詳細說明。

  • Average non-maturity Consumer and Small Business deposits increased 2% versus the second quarter, driven by a 39% increase in new-to-bank deposit production. Average deposits per client were higher across all income segments, but we did see continued client demand for higher-yielding deposit categories.

    消費者與小型企業的平均非到期存款較第二季增加2%,主要受新開戶(new-to-bank)存款承作量成長39%所帶動。各收入區間的每位客戶平均存款皆有所提高,但我們也看到客戶對較高收益存款類別的需求持續存在。

  • Premier Banking, which serves clients with $100,000 to $1 million in combined deposits and investments and represents more than half of CSBB deposits, was again a source of strength. This business delivered a 20% year-over-year increase in new deposit production balances, a 23% increase in advisor productivity, and a 9% increase in financial planning activity. Our investments in Premier are also creating meaningful opportunities across the company, with referrals from CSBB to wealth management increasing 15% over the first half of 2025.

    Premier Banking服務合併存款與投資介於10萬至100萬美元的客戶,且占CSBB存款的一半以上,再次成為我們的強項來源。該業務的新存款承作餘額年對年成長20%,顧問生產力提升23%,財務規劃活動增加9%。我們對Premier的投資也在全公司創造具意義的機會;2025年上半年,CSBB轉介至財富管理的案件數較去年同期增加15%。

  • As you can see on the slide, digital also continues to be a key growth engine. Active mobile users increased 4% year over year to 5.4 million, while digital transaction volume increased 7% to 93 million transactions. Approximately 85% of client logins now occur through mobile, underscoring the increasing central role our mobile capabilities play in serving clients.

    如投影片所示,數位化也持續是關鍵成長引擎。行動裝置活躍用戶年對年增加4%至540萬人;數位交易量增加7%至9,300萬筆交易。目前約85%的客戶登入發生在行動端,凸顯我們行動能力在服務客戶上日益居於核心地位。

  • Increasing digital engagement is not only improving the client experience but also strengthening client economics. Digital active clients generate more revenue and higher profitability than non-digital clients, while greater self-service adoption continues to improve efficiency across the franchise.

    提升數位互動不僅改善客戶體驗,也強化客戶經濟效益。數位活躍客戶相較非數位客戶能帶來更多收入與更高獲利能力,而更高的自助服務採用率也持續提升整體特許經營體系的效率。

  • During the quarter, clients engaged with Truist Assist nearly 2 million times, up 60% year over year, reflecting growing adoption of self-service capabilities and our continued investment in the digital client experience. Taken together, these results demonstrate our strategy to improve profitability, strengthen returns, and allocate capital towards the highest value opportunities across Consumer and Small Business Banking.

    本季客戶與Truist Assist互動近200萬次,年對年成長60%,反映自助服務能力的採用持續提升,以及我們對數位客戶體驗的持續投資。綜合而言,這些結果展現我們在消費者與小型企業銀行業務中,提升獲利能力、強化報酬並將資本配置至最高價值機會的策略。

  • Now turning to Wholesale on slide 7. In Wholesale, we also delivered another strong quarter with continued momentum across loans, deposits, and fees, while maintaining a disciplined focus on relationship returns and capital efficiency.

    現在轉到第 7 張投影片的批發銀行業務(Wholesale)。在批發銀行方面,我們同樣交出另一個強勁季度,放款、存款與手續費收入皆持續展現動能,同時維持對關係回報與資本效率的嚴謹聚焦。

  • Over the past year, we've significantly expanded our client base and strengthened existing relationships across the Wholesale franchise, driving broader adoption of our lending, deposit, payments, wealth management, and capital markets capabilities. This deeper engagement is translating into higher revenue per client, a more attractive revenue mix, and improved relationship profitability, driven by an increasing share of revenue coming from non-credit sources.

    在過去一年,我們大幅擴大客戶基礎,並強化批發銀行業務版圖中的既有客戶關係,帶動客戶更廣泛採用我們在放款、存款、支付、財富管理與資本市場方面的能力。這種更深度的互動正轉化為每位客戶更高的收入、更具吸引力的收入組合,以及更佳的關係獲利能力,主要受惠於來自非授信來源的收入占比提升。

  • Average Wholesale deposits increased 6%, excluding the impact of certain large M&A-related deposits in the second quarter of last year, driven by broad-based deposit growth across client segments, heavily tied to our focus on driving payments and liquidity solutions. Middle market deposits, an area where we're invested heavily, grew 12% year over year, driven by 9% growth in our legacy markets and 27% growth in expansion markets such as Texas, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.

    批發銀行平均存款成長 6%;若排除去年第二季某些大型併購(M&A)相關存款的影響,成長主要來自各客群的廣泛存款增長,且與我們推動支付與流動性解決方案的聚焦高度相關。我們重點投入的中型市場(Middle Market)存款年增 12%,其中既有市場成長 9%,而德州、賓夕法尼亞州與俄亥俄州等擴張市場成長 27%。

  • Average Wholesale loans increased 8% compared with the second quarter of 2025, reflecting broad-based momentum across our industry banking, middle market, and commercial real estate teams as we continue to prioritize high-quality, relationship-driven growth. Wholesale fee income continues to outpace balance sheet growth, led by investment banking and trading and wealth management, reflecting strong client activity, improved deal economics, and continued momentum in our wealth franchise.

    相較於 2025 年第二季,批發銀行平均放款成長 8%,反映我們產業銀行、中型市場與商用不動產團隊的全面動能;我們持續優先推動高品質、以關係為導向的成長。批發銀行手續費收入持續跑贏資產負債表成長,主要由投資銀行與交易,以及財富管理帶動,反映客戶活動強勁、交易條件改善,以及我們財富業務版圖的持續動能。

  • Advisory revenue increased 27% year to date, including strong growth across equity capital markets, M&A advisory, and financial risk management. Overall, we remain encouraged by the breadth of growth across the franchise and the continued progress in building a more profitable and capital-efficient Wholesale business.

    顧問收入年初至今成長 27%,其中股票資本市場、併購(M&A)顧問與金融風險管理均呈現強勁成長。整體而言,我們仍對整個業務版圖廣泛的成長動能,以及打造更高獲利、資本效率更佳的批發銀行業務所取得的持續進展感到鼓舞。

  • With that, let me turn it over to Mike to discuss our financial results in more detail.

    接下來,我把時間交給 Mike,請他更詳細說明我們的財務結果。

  • Michael Maguire - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Michael Maguire - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, Bill, and good morning, everyone.

    謝謝你,Bill,各位早安。

  • So as Bill mentioned, we reported second-quarter 2026 GAAP net income available to common shareholders of $1.5 billion, or $1.23 per diluted share. Earnings per share increased 37% versus the second quarter of 2025 and 13% versus the first quarter of 2026.

    如 Bill 所提到的,我們公布 2026 年第二季依 GAAP 計算、可歸屬於普通股股東的淨利為 15 億美元,稀釋後每股盈餘為 1.23 美元。每股盈餘較 2025 年第二季成長 37%,較 2026 年第一季成長 13%。

  • Revenue increased 2.2% linked quarter due primarily to higher non-interest income. Revenue increased by 5.5% versus the second quarter of 2025, due primarily to higher non-interest income, led by growth in investment banking and trading and wealth management income.

    營收較前一季成長 2.2%,主要因非利息收入增加。營收較 2025 年第二季成長 5.5%,同樣主要由非利息收入成長所帶動,其中以投資銀行與交易,以及財富管理收入的成長為主。

  • GAAP non-interest expense increased 2.4% versus the first quarter of 2026, primarily due to higher personnel expense and professional and outside processing expenses. Non-interest expense increased 2.3% versus the second quarter of 2025, which helped drive 320 basis points of year-over-year positive operating leverage.

    依 GAAP 計算的非利息費用較 2026 年第一季增加 2.4%,主要因人員費用以及專業服務與外部處理費用上升。非利息費用較 2025 年第二季增加 2.3%,進而帶動年對年正向營運槓桿 320 個基點。

  • Asset quality metrics remained strong, and our CET1 ratio increased by 10 basis points linked quarter to 10.9%.

    資產品質指標維持強勁,我們的 CET1 比率較前一季上升 10 個基點至 10.9%。

  • Next, I'll cover loans and leases on slide 9. Average loans held for investment increased $2.1 billion, or 0.7%, linked quarter to $329 billion, driven by 1.3% growth in average commercial loans, partially offset by a decline in average Consumer loans.

    接著我將在第 9 張投影片說明放款與租賃。投資用途持有的平均放款增加 21 億美元(或 0.7%),較前一季增至 3,290 億美元,主要由平均商業放款成長 1.3% 所帶動,部分被平均消費金融放款下滑所抵銷。

  • End-of-period loans increased modestly linked quarter, reflecting slight growth in both Commercial and Consumer. As a reminder, we expected 2026 loan growth to be driven primarily by Commercial and other Consumer categories, with slower loan growth in residential mortgage and indirect auto.

    期末放款較前一季小幅增加,反映商業與消費兩者皆略有成長。提醒一下,我們原先預期 2026 年放款成長主要由商業放款與其他消費類別帶動,而住宅房貸與間接汽車貸款的放款成長較慢。

  • Moving to deposit trends on slide 10. Average deposits increased 1.5% linked quarter, driven by growth in all deposit categories, while year-over-year growth was 1.1%, driven primarily by growth in interest checking. We continue to see healthy client deposit activity; however, deposit mix trends are being pressured by elevated rate-seeking behavior and migration into higher-rate products.

    接著看第 10 張投影片的存款趨勢。平均存款較前一季成長 1.5%,由所有存款類別的成長所帶動;年對年成長為 1.1%,主要由計息支票存款成長所驅動。我們持續看到健康的客戶存款活動;然而,存款結構趨勢正受到偏好追逐利率的行為升溫,以及資金移轉至較高利率產品的壓力。

  • Average interest-bearing deposit costs increased by 1 basis point linked quarter to 2.10%, and average total deposit costs increased 1 basis point to 1.56%. As shown in the chart on the bottom right-hand side of the slide, our cumulative interest-bearing deposit beta decreased from 46% to 45%, and our total deposit beta decreased from 31% to 30% on a linked quarter basis.

    平均計息存款成本較前一季上升 1 個基點至 2.10%,平均總存款成本上升 1 個基點至 1.56%。如投影片右下方圖表所示,我們的累計計息存款 beta 由 46% 降至 45%,總存款 beta 亦在前一季基礎上由 31% 降至 30%。

  • Moving to net interest income and net interest margin on slide 11. Taxable equivalent net interest income increased 0.6% linked quarter, or $23 million, primarily due to the impact of one additional day in the second quarter and higher earning assets, partially offset by lower loan spreads.

    接著看第 11 張投影片的淨利息收入與淨利息收益率(NIM)。以課稅等值(taxable equivalent)計算的淨利息收入較前一季成長 0.6%,或增加 2,300 萬美元,主要因第二季多了一天的影響以及生息資產增加,部分被放款利差下降所抵銷。

  • Our net interest margin decreased 4 basis points linked quarter to 2.98%, driven by slightly higher deposit costs, lower loan spreads, and a slightly larger balance sheet.

    我們的淨利息收益率較前一季下降 4 個基點至 2.98%,主要受存款成本略升、放款利差下降,以及資產負債表略為擴大所影響。

  • As shown on the right-hand side of the slide, we now expect net interest income to increase approximately 1% to 1.5%. Our updated outlook reflects actions we have taken to improve profitability, as well as certain market dynamics.

    如投影片右側所示,我們目前預期淨利息收入將增加約 1% 至 1.5%。我們更新後的展望反映了我們為提升獲利能力所採取的行動,以及某些市場動態。

  • First, we are continuing to optimize less strategic and lower-return lending portfolios that offer limited relationship potential, which has the effect of reducing NII and net interest margin, but improves ROTCE. Second, we now expect lower loan spreads than we anticipated based on two factors. One, we are reallocating capital from higher-yielding Consumer loans into higher-quality but lower-yielding commercial loans, where we expect to drive attractive relationship returns over time. And two, we're seeing continued broad-based market-driven compression of loan spreads.

    第一,我們持續優化策略性較低且回報較低、關係拓展潛力有限的放款組合;這會降低淨利息收入與淨利息收益率,但可提升 ROTCE。第二,基於兩項因素,我們目前預期放款利差將低於先前預估。其一,我們正將資本自收益率較高的消費金融放款重新配置至品質較高但收益率較低的商業放款;我們預期隨時間推進可帶來具吸引力的關係回報。其二,我們看到由市場驅動的放款利差全面性持續收窄。

  • Third headwind is our outlook for a less favorable deposit mix and, therefore, higher rate paid than we previously expected. These headwinds are partially offset by the benefits we expect to get from a higher medium- and long-term interest rates.

    第三項逆風是,我們對存款結構較不利的展望,因此預期支付利率將高於先前預估。這些逆風部分將被我們預期中期與長期利率較高所帶來的效益所抵銷。

  • As Bill discussed earlier, some of the actions that we are taking to improve profitability and returns involve trade-offs across individual metrics. For example, during the second quarter, we discontinued the origination of marine and recreational vehicle loans, and we significantly reduced originations in several other less strategic and less profitable Consumer lending units, such as prime and non-prime auto.

    如 Bill 先前所述,我們為提升獲利能力與回報所採取的部分行動,會在個別指標之間產生取捨。例如在第二季,我們停止承作船舶與休閒車貸款的新增放款,並在其他數個策略性較低且獲利較差的消費金融放款單位大幅縮減承作量,例如優質與非優質汽車貸款。

  • These actions are expected to reduce 2026 loan production across these portfolios by approximately 40% relative to 2025 production levels. Many of these portfolios are accretive to net interest income and net interest margin, but significantly dilutive to our long-term ROTCE objectives and less strategic to our client-focused business model.

    預期這些行動將使 2026 年上述組合的放款產出相較 2025 年產出水準約減少 40%。其中許多組合對淨利息收入與淨利息收益率具有增益(accretive),但對我們長期 ROTCE 目標有顯著稀釋效果,且與我們以客戶為核心的商業模式之策略契合度較低。

  • While these actions may reduce near-term net interest income growth, they improve the overall profitability and the capital efficiency of our balance sheet, which was evident in the second quarter. We'll continue to evaluate similar actions that will enhance returns and improve capital efficiency, including further optimization of lower return and less strategic portfolios.

    雖然這些行動可能降低短期淨利息收入的成長,但能提升資產負債表的整體獲利能力與資本效率,這點在第二季已可見一斑。我們將持續評估類似行動,以提升回報並改善資本效率,包括進一步優化回報較低且策略性較低的組合。

  • Finally, as you can see on the right-hand side of the slide, we did update our fixed asset repricing outlook and our swap disclosure. While expected runoff in our fixed-rate loan portfolio remains largely unchanged, we do expect lower replacement volume due to the actions I just described, which is reflected in our updated NII outlook.

    最後,如各位在投影片右側所見,我們也更新了固定資產重訂價(repricing)展望以及換匯(swap)揭露。雖然我們固定利率放款組合的預期到期/流失(runoff)大致維持不變,但由於我剛才描述的行動,我們確實預期替代量(replacement volume)將較低,並已反映在我們更新後的淨利息收入展望中。

  • Turning now to non-interest income on slide 12. Non-interest income increased 5.9% compared with the first quarter, reflecting strong growth in other income, primarily driven by higher income from certain equity investments. Compared with the second quarter of 2025, non-interest income increased 17%, driven by strong performance across several of our fee-based businesses.

    現在轉到第12頁的非利息收入。非利息收入較第一季增加5.9%,反映其他收入強勁成長,主要由特定股權投資收入增加所帶動。與2025年第二季相比,非利息收入增加17%,主要受惠於我們多項以手續費為主的業務表現強勁。

  • Investment banking and trading revenue increased 72%, benefiting from stronger client activity, improved deal economics, and continued momentum across our capital markets platform. Wealth management income increased 8%, supported by continued growth in client assets, advisor productivity, and financial planning activity.

    投資銀行與交易收入增加72%,受惠於客戶活動更為活躍、交易條件改善,以及我們資本市場平台動能持續。財富管理收入增加8%,在客戶資產持續成長、理財顧問生產力提升及財務規劃活動增加的支持下成長。

  • While card and treasury management fees grew only modestly, underlying business trends remain encouraging, as we see healthy client pipelines and we continue to make investments in both products and talent. Consistent with the trends Bill discussed earlier, fee income growth continues to outpace balance sheet growth, reflecting deeper client relationships and a more capital-efficient revenue mix across our company.

    雖然信用卡與資金管理費用僅小幅成長,但基礎業務趨勢仍令人鼓舞,因為我們看到健康的客戶管線,並持續在產品與人才兩方面進行投資。與Bill先前討論的趨勢一致,手續費收入成長仍持續快於資產負債表成長,反映更深的客戶關係,以及公司整體更具資本效率的收入組合。

  • Next, I'll cover non-interest expense on slide 13. Expense discipline remained a key focus during the quarter as we continued balancing investment in the business with our commitment to improving profitability. On a linked quarter basis, non-interest expense increased 2.4%, primarily reflecting higher incentive compensation associated with stronger business performance.

    接下來我將在第13頁說明非利息費用。本季費用控管仍是重點,我們持續在業務投資與提升獲利能力的承諾之間取得平衡。以連續季度比較,非利息費用增加2.4%,主要反映因業務表現更強而提高的獎勵性薪酬。

  • Compared with the second quarter of 2025, non-interest expense increased 2.3%, driven largely by higher personnel expense, partially offset by lower professional fees and outside processing costs. Importantly, year-over-year expense growth remained well below revenue growth, contributing to our positive operating leverage.

    與2025年第二季相比,非利息費用增加2.3%,主要由人員費用上升所帶動,部分被較低的專業服務費與外部處理成本所抵銷。重要的是,年對年費用成長仍遠低於營收成長,進一步貢獻我們正向的營運槓桿。

  • We continue to identify efficiencies across the company that can be redeployed in the growth initiatives and the highest return opportunities such as growth in revenue-producing teammates, new products, and capabilities that can improve the client experience. In addition, AI is becoming an increasingly important contributor, helping improve productivity, enhance client experience, and create additional capacity that can be invested in high-value business opportunities across our franchise.

    我們持續在全公司辨識可提升效率之處,並可將其重新配置到成長計畫與最高報酬機會上,例如增加創收團隊成員、新產品,以及能改善客戶體驗的能力建置。此外,AI正成為愈來愈重要的貢獻者,協助提升生產力、強化客戶體驗,並創造額外產能,以投入我們整體版圖中高價值的業務機會。

  • Next, I'll discuss asset quality on slide 14. Asset quality remained a source of strength this quarter, with stable credit performance and continued improvement in several key portfolios. Net charge-offs declined 11 basis points linked quarter to 50 basis points, reflecting lower losses across most portfolios. Compared with the second quarter of 2025, net charge-offs were relatively stable.

    接下來我將在第14頁討論資產品質。本季資產品質仍是我們的強項,信用表現穩定,且多個關鍵投資組合持續改善。淨沖銷(net charge-offs)較上季下降11個基點至50個基點,反映多數投資組合損失降低。與2025年第二季相比,淨沖銷大致持平。

  • Our provision for credit losses totaled $395 million, modestly below net charge-offs of $414 million, resulting in a 2-basis-point linked quarter decline in allowance for loan losses to 1.51% of total loans. The modest reduction in our ALLL was primarily driven by the resolution of several commercial and commercial real estate problems credits during the quarter and continued improvement in sectors like office and multifamily.

    我們的信用損失準備金為3.95億美元,略低於淨沖銷4.14億美元,使得貸款損失備抵(allowance for loan losses)占總貸款比率較上季下降2個基點至1.51%。ALLL的小幅下降主要來自本季解決了數筆商業與商用不動產問題授信,並且辦公室與多戶住宅等產業持續改善。

  • Non-performing loans held for investment increased 1 basis point linked-quarter to 51 basis points of total loans, as higher indirect auto problem loans were partially offset by improvement in the commercial portfolio. The increase in indirect auto non-performing loans was primarily due to a change to the non-accrual criteria in our regional acceptance non-prime auto business, as we discussed last quarter.

    持有供投資之不良貸款(non-performing loans held for investment)較上季增加1個基點至占總貸款51個基點,因間接汽車問題貸款增加,部分被商業投資組合改善所抵銷。間接汽車不良貸款的增加主要是由於我們在區域承作的次級(non-prime)汽車業務中調整了不計息(non-accrual)認定標準,正如我們上季所討論。

  • This does not reflect deterioration in underlying credit trends, as lifetime cash flows are not expected to change. However, as these loans move to non-accrual status, subsequent payments are applied to principal and no longer recognized as interest income.

    這並不代表基礎信用趨勢惡化,因為預期的存續期間現金流不會改變。然而,當這些貸款轉為不計息狀態後,後續收款將用於沖減本金,且不再認列為利息收入。

  • Turning to capital now on slide 15. Our CET1 ratio increased 10 basis points linked quarter to 10.9%, despite returning more than 100% of earnings to shareholders through share repurchases and through our common dividend. The increase in our CET1 ratio reflects strong capital generation and the benefits of balance sheet optimization efforts that are improving our RWA density.

    現在轉到第15頁的資本。我們的CET1比率較上季增加10個基點至10.9%,儘管我們透過庫藏股回購與普通股股利向股東返還超過100%的盈餘。CET1比率的提升反映強勁的資本生成能力,以及資產負債表最佳化措施所帶來的效益,這些措施正在改善我們的RWA密度。

  • During the second quarter, we repurchased $1.2 billion of common stock, compared with $1.1 billion in the prior quarter and $750 million in the second quarter of 2025. We continue to target approximately $5 billion of share buybacks in 2026.

    第二季我們回購12億美元普通股,較前一季的11億美元增加,也高於2025年第二季的7.5億美元。我們仍以2026年約50億美元的股票回購為目標。

  • I'll now review our guidance for the third quarter and for full year 2026 on the following page. Looking into the third quarter of 2026, we expect revenue to increase 1% relative to second-quarter revenue of $5.3 billion. We expect net interest income to increase by approximately 1.5% in the third quarter, primarily driven by an additional day and higher client deposit balances.

    接下來我將在下一頁回顧我們對第三季及2026全年之指引。展望2026年第三季,我們預期營收將較第二季的53億美元增加1%。我們預期第三季淨利息收入將增加約1.5%,主要由於多一天的天數效應以及客戶存款餘額較高所帶動。

  • We expect non-interest income to remain relatively stable on a linked quarter basis. Non-interest expense of $3.1 billion in the second quarter is expected to increase by about 2% linked quarter in the third quarter.

    我們預期非利息收入以連續季度比較將大致持平。第二季非利息費用為31億美元,預期第三季將較上季增加約2%。

  • Turning to our outlook for 2026. We now expect revenue to increase 3.5% to 4% compared with our previous outlook for 4% revenue growth. This change primarily reflects the factors discussed earlier, which reduced our expected net interest income growth to 1% to 1.5% from our previous outlook of 2% to 3%.

    接著談我們對2026年的展望。我們目前預期營收將較先前展望的4%成長下修至3.5%至4%。此變動主要反映先前討論的因素,使我們預期的淨利息收入成長由原先的2%至3%下修至1%至1.5%。

  • However, we are increasing our outlook for non-interest income growth to approximately 10% versus our previous estimate of high-single digits, reflecting continued momentum across our fee businesses. We continue to expect GAAP non-interest expense growth of 1.75%, net charge-offs of 55 basis points, and an effective tax rate of 14.5%, as well as share buybacks of $5 billion for the year. Although we modestly reduced our revenue guidance, we remain confident in the EPS trajectory that we expressed earlier this year and our ability to drive ROTCE for 2026 above 14%.

    不過,我們將非利息收入成長展望上調至約10%,高於先前預估的高個位數,反映我們手續費業務動能持續。我們仍預期GAAP口徑非利息費用成長1.75%、淨沖銷55個基點、有效稅率14.5%,以及全年50億美元的股票回購。儘管我們小幅下修營收指引,但我們仍對今年稍早所表達的EPS走勢,以及在2026年將ROTCE推升至14%以上的能力保持信心。

  • Now, I'll hand it back to Bill for some final remarks.

    現在我把時間交還給Bill做最後的結語。

  • William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Mike.

    謝謝你,Mike。

  • As we close, I want to reiterate the message I shared at the beginning of today's call. Across our company, we're making strategic decisions about where we grow, where we invest, and how we allocate capital to improve performance and strengthen returns. The results reported today demonstrate that those decisions are producing the outcomes we intended. We're seeing stronger profitability and continued momentum across many of our key businesses.

    在結束之前,我想重申我在今天電話會議一開始分享的訊息。在全公司範圍內,我們正就成長方向、投資重點,以及如何配置資本做出策略性決策,以改善表現並強化報酬。今天公布的結果顯示,這些決策正在產生我們預期的成果。我們看到更強的獲利能力,以及多項關鍵業務動能持續。

  • Just as importantly, the progress we're making reinforces our confidence in our ability to achieve and sustain the profitability trajectory outlined on slide 17. As Mike mentioned, reflecting on that progress and our confidence in the path ahead, we now expect to deliver ROTCE of greater than 14% end of 2026.

    同樣重要的是,我們所取得的進展進一步強化我們對於達成並維持第17頁所概述獲利軌跡的信心。如Mike所提到,回顧這些進展以及我們對前路的信心,我們現在預期在2026年底可達成高於14%的ROTCE。

  • While we remain focused on delivering the commitments we've made, we believe those objectives represent milestones along the longer-term path of continuously improving our performance. One of the things that gives me confidence in that path is the strong alignment between our Board and incoming CEO, Mike Lyons, about the opportunities ahead. Together, we share a common vision of building a company that consistently delivers stronger profitability, improved returns, and long-term value for our shareholders.

    在我們仍專注於兌現既有承諾的同時,我們相信這些目標只是我們長期持續提升績效道路上的里程碑。讓我對這條道路有信心的其中一點,是我們董事會與即將上任的執行長Mike Lyons,對於未來機會有高度一致的看法。我們共同擁有一致的願景:打造一家能持續帶來更強獲利能力、更佳報酬,以及為股東創造長期價值的公司。

  • I want to thank our teammates for their incredible, purposeful commitment, focus, and dedication to serving our clients. I want to thank our shareholders for their continued trust and support. Given this will be my last call as CEO, I want to thank all of you who follow us for your focus and professionalism.

    我想感謝我們的團隊夥伴,以令人難以置信且目標明確的承諾、專注與投入,致力於服務我們的客戶。我想感謝我們的股東持續的信任與支持。鑑於這將是我以執行長身分主持的最後一場電話會議,我想感謝所有關注我們的各位,謝謝你們的專注與專業。

  • So with that, Brad, let me turn it back over to you for Q&A.

    那麼,Brad,接下來我把時間交還給你進行問答。

  • Brad Milsaps - Investor Relations

    Brad Milsaps - Investor Relations

  • Thank you, Bill.

    謝謝你,Bill。

  • Rocco, at this time, will you please explain how our listeners can participate in the Q&A session? As you do that, I'd like to ask the participants to please limit yourselves to one primary question and one short follow-up question in order to accommodate as many of you as possible on today's call.

    Rocco,此刻能否請你說明聽眾要如何參與問答環節?在你說明的同時,我也想請各位與會者為了讓今天電話會議能容納更多人提問,請各位將問題限制為一個主要問題,以及一個簡短的追問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Ryan Nash, Goldman Sachs.

    (接線員指示)Ryan Nash,高盛。

  • Ryan M. Nash - Analyst

    Ryan M. Nash - Analyst

  • Good morning, everyone. Bill, just wanted to say congrats on your retirement. It's been great working with you and learned a ton from you over the years, particularly on our trip, so you'll definitely be missed.

    各位早安。Bill,只想先恭喜你退休。這些年能與你共事非常愉快,也從你身上學到很多,尤其是我們那次出差,所以你一定會讓人非常想念。

  • Maybe to kick it off, Bill, you talked about some of the trade-offs that you're making right now to grow the business, and it's clear you could see commercial loan growth end-of-period balances are down. But on the flip side, you added a plus to the return target for the year. So can you maybe just expand on what's happening under the hood incrementally, maybe talk about each loan category? And how do you think about the focus on returns versus actually growing the company at this point?

    也許先從這裡開始,Bill,你談到目前為了推動業務成長所做的一些取捨,而很明顯你也看到商業貸款期末餘額的成長是下滑的。但另一方面,你又把今年的報酬目標上調了一點。所以你能否更進一步說明一下內部逐步發生了什麼,也許逐一談談各個貸款類別?以及在這個時間點,你如何看待聚焦報酬率與實際擴大公司規模成長之間的取捨?

  • William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Ryan, thanks. I'll also miss working with you.

    好的。Ryan,謝謝。我也會想念和你一起工作的時光。

  • If you think about -- let's start -- if we break down the loan categories, C&I, if you look sort of year on year on quarter, is up just under 8%, so the places where we've continued to focus and have intentionality, have good growth characteristics. And then if you break out Consumer and you look at the areas like HELOC and then you look at other Consumer areas like Sheffield and like Service Finance, those have also continued to grow. And we have good production in those capabilities.

    如果你這樣想——我們先從這裡開始——若把貸款類別拆開來看,C&I(商業與工業貸款)若以年比、季比來看,成長接近8%,所以我們持續聚焦、並且有意識投入的領域,確實具備良好的成長特性。再來若把消費金融拆開看,像是HELOC(房屋淨值信用額度),以及其他消費金融領域如Sheffield與Service Finance,也都持續成長。而且我們在這些能力上的放款產出也不錯。

  • The other places, like indirect auto, we're down actually quite significantly and now down significantly in production. Our focus is on relationship-based, things that also clear our profitability hurdles. So establishing these targets has really sort of come all the way through in the company. I mean, I'm really, really proud of the team that they've embraced where we want to go from a profitability standpoint, clarity around strategies, sort of full alignment in the things that are important to us.

    其他領域,例如間接汽車貸款,我們其實大幅下滑,而且目前在放款產出上也顯著下降。我們的重點是以關係為基礎的業務,同時也必須通過我們的獲利門檻。因此,設定這些目標確實已經在公司內部全面落實。我的意思是,我真的、真的為團隊感到非常自豪,他們已經擁抱我們在獲利能力面向想要前進的方向,對策略有清楚的認知,並且在對我們重要的事情上達到完全一致。

  • And then within those categories, within the commercial book, highly diversified, really good focus, really good growth in the middle market area, for example, where we've had a focus, good production, good pipelines in those areas. So if we think about just as the lone component of that, I think our team is doing a good job staying focused on the things that are accreted over time.

    而在這些類別之內、在商業放款組合方面,我們高度分散、聚焦得很好;例如在我們一直聚焦的中型市場領域,成長非常不錯,放款產出良好,且在那些領域有很好的案源管線。所以如果把這視為其中一個單一構成要素,我認為我們的團隊在專注於那些能隨時間累積增益的事情上做得很好。

  • And to your other question, I mean, it's also setting the stage and setting the platform for growth. So every incremental dollar that we add to the company on a growth platform, that just has a higher return and higher earnings efficiency and capital efficiency going forward. So I would say we're not conceding long-term growth in terms of repositioning, but I think we're setting the table for the efficient growth that comes forward.

    至於你另一個問題,我的意思是,這同時也是在為成長搭建舞台、建立平台。因此,我們在成長平台上每增加一塊錢的增量資金,未來都會帶來更高的報酬率、更高的獲利效率與資本效率。所以我會說,我們並不是在重新定位的過程中犧牲長期成長;相反地,我認為我們是在為未來更有效率的成長做好準備。

  • Does that help?

    這樣有回答到你的問題嗎?

  • Ryan M. Nash - Analyst

    Ryan M. Nash - Analyst

  • Yeah. No, that's great. And maybe if I can ask a follow-up from Mike. So Mike, you took down full-year NII expectations. Maybe just unpack a little bit what's including for loan growth, the exit margin, and what are the updated thoughts on deposit costs from here. Thank you.

    有。不,這很棒。另外如果我可以替Mike追問一下。Mike,你下調了全年NII(淨利息收入)的預期。能否稍微拆解一下其中對貸款成長、期末利差(exit margin)的假設,以及接下來對存款成本的最新看法?謝謝。

  • Michael Maguire - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Michael Maguire - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Sure, yeah. Good morning, Ryan.

    當然,可以。早安,Ryan。

  • Well, I mean, maybe just to reiterate some of what we said already in our prepared remarks, the good news is while we do see some pressure on NII for the year, we do feel quite good about fees being in sort of the 10% area year over year. Credit this quarter looked great. And we feel good about, from an expense perspective, feel good too. And so I think from a bottom-line perspective, I feel like we've got really nice momentum. And obviously, Bill just talked about some of the progress that we're proud of in terms of the ROTCE.

    嗯,我想也許先重申一下我們在事先準備的發言中已經提到的一些內容:好消息是,雖然我們確實看到今年NII有一些壓力,但我們對手續費收入年比大約在10%附近感到相當有信心。本季的信用表現看起來非常好。而且從費用面來看,我們也覺得狀況不錯。因此我認為就最終盈餘而言,我覺得我們有非常好的動能。當然,Bill剛才也談到一些我們引以為傲的進展,特別是在ROTCE(有形普通股權報酬率)方面。

  • The NII piece, we mentioned there's sort of three main headwinds. Bill mentioned, when I mentioned the marine and wrecked vehicle, business we actually exited during the quarter. Prime auto's down. We mentioned, across those portfolios and a few others, we're down on a production basis, call it 40% year over year. That's $7 billion to $8 billion of annual production that's come out of the business in 2026 versus 2025. And from our perspective, not regrettable. I mean, those are trade-offs we're making to improve profitability.

    關於NII的部分,我們提到大致有三個主要逆風。Bill提到、我也提到的海事與事故車輛(wrecked vehicle)業務,我們其實在本季已經退出。優質汽車(prime auto)也在下滑。我們也提到,在這些投資組合以及其他幾個組合中,我們的放款產出年比下滑約40%。這代表2026年相較2025年,每年的放款產出少了約70億到80億美元。以我們的角度來看,這並不令人遺憾。我的意思是,這些是我們為了提升獲利能力所做的取捨。

  • As you think about the spreads piece, there's sort of two components there as well. There's the piece that we're doing that's not necessarily happening to us. So we have been remixing and reallocating capital from some of these less strategic, less profitable portfolios into C&I. That's going to result in a lower yield typically, but we believe a higher return longer term and be the right thing for the company over time.

    再談到利差(spreads)部分,大致也有兩個構成因素。其中一部分是我們主動在做的,而不一定是外部環境「發生在我們身上」的。因此,我們一直在重新混合配置(remix)並重新分配資本,把資本從一些較不具策略性、較不具獲利性的投資組合,轉向C&I。這通常會導致收益率較低,但我們相信長期報酬會更高,而且從長期來看對公司是正確的做法。

  • Even within Wholesale, we're seeing some remixing into more high-grade, sort of investment-grade type credits. And so that's also having an effect, so loan spreads being pressured perhaps by some conscious choices we're making.

    即使在批發銀行(Wholesale)內部,我們也看到一些重新配置,轉向更高評等、偏投資等級(investment-grade)類型的授信。因此這也會產生影響,也就是說,貸款利差受到壓力,部分可能來自我們有意識做出的選擇。

  • And then we do see broad-based market compression. We came into the year with an expectation that we might see some kind of a bounce off the bottom on credit spreads, maybe to the tune of 10 to 15 basis points, which would have perhaps felt a little bit conservative relative to some of what was being discussed in the industry at the time. If we hold spreads just constant from here, that would result in spreads for us at least year over year being down 5 to 10 versus the upside of 10 to 15.

    另外,我們也看到市場整體出現廣泛性的壓縮。我們在年初的預期是,信用利差可能會從低點反彈一些,大概10到15個基點;相較於當時業界的一些討論,這樣的假設可能還算偏保守。如果我們從現在起把利差維持不變,那麼對我們而言,年比利差將下滑5到10個基點,而不是原先預期的上行10到15個基點。

  • So that's been a pretty important headwind for us, and we've incorporated that into our outlook. And we do reprice quite a few loans, as you can imagine. It's beyond the fixed rate loans, but we reprice a pretty sizable portion of our floaters every quarter as well. So that's been an important factor.

    所以這對我們來說是一個相當重要的逆風,我們也已把它納入展望之中。而且如你所想像的,我們會對相當多的貸款進行重新定價。不只是固定利率貸款,我們每一季也會對相當大一部分的浮動利率貸款重新定價。因此這一直是一個重要因素。

  • And then of course, deposits, we've been -- we learn a lot about deposits in the second quarter of every year. There's just seasonality around taxes and bonuses. As we got deeper into the quarter and closed out June and looked forward, it just became clear to us that there is just much more client preference, inertia around higher-rate products.

    然後當然是存款,我們——我們每年第二季都會在存款方面學到很多。這主要是因稅款與獎金帶來的季節性因素。隨著我們更深入本季、結束六月並展望未來,我們愈發清楚看到,客戶對高利率產品的偏好與慣性明顯更強。

  • And so we're seeing that remix. We've seen some of it year to date, and we have an expectation that that's going to continue. And so we've incorporated that into our outlook as well. And of course, all those three factors are offset in part by a higher belly of the curve, which does help us on the fixed rate asset repricing side. So that's the headwind on NII. Again, maybe just to finish where I started, the good news is while the components have moved around a touch, we still feel quite good about the bottom line.

    因此我們看到這種重新配置。今年迄今我們已看到其中一部分,而且我們預期這種情況會持續。所以我們也把這點納入了我們的展望。當然,這三個因素部分會被殖利率曲線中段走高所抵銷,這確實在固定利率資產重定價方面對我們有幫助。所以這就是對淨利息收入(NII)的逆風。再次回到我一開始的結論:好消息是,雖然各項組成略有變動,但我們對最終結果仍然相當有信心。

  • I think you asked about margins, I'll touch that quickly. We did see a touch of pressure on net interest margin linked quarter. About half of that was just the sort of composition of the earning asset growth. We saw bonds and cash maybe $3 billion higher. That's obviously dilutive to our net interest margin.

    我想你問到利差,我快速帶一下。我們確實看到淨利息利差(NIM)較上季略有壓力。其中大約一半只是生息資產成長的組合所致。我們看到債券與現金可能增加了約30億美元。這顯然會稀釋我們的淨利息利差。

  • And then on the loan and sort of deposit-funded growth, you saw 1 basis point higher on deposits and 3 basis points worse on loan yields. Some of that's the swaps coming on as well, impacting loan yields. But that's what took us down the 4 basis points. We would expect that to modestly improve throughout the course of the year, modestly improve as we get the benefit of fixed rate asset repricing.

    另外,在貸款以及以存款資金支持的成長方面,你看到存款成本上升了1個基點,而貸款收益率則惡化了3個基點。其中一部分也來自掉期開始生效,進而影響貸款收益率。但這就是讓我們下降4個基點的原因。我們預期在今年剩餘期間會小幅改善,隨著固定利率資產重定價帶來的效益,會有些許提升。

  • Maybe, again, we still actually feel quite good about deposit balances, both in Wholesale and Consumer. We're seeing nice production. It's really just mix. So we actually do think that NIM will improve in the third quarter, in part based on higher client deposit balances, but not to the same degree that we would have expected a quarter ago or certainly back in January when we had a different rate environment and there's a lot of other factors that go into it.

    再補充一下,我們其實仍對存款餘額相當有信心,無論是批發端或消費端。我們看到不錯的新增量。真正的問題只是組合。因此我們確實認為第三季NIM會改善,部分原因是客戶存款餘額提高,但改善幅度不會像我們一季前所預期的那麼大,當然也不會像一月時在不同利率環境下的預期那樣,因為還有許多其他因素會影響。

  • So I think I've got your questions there, Ryan.

    Ryan,我想我已經回答到你的問題了。

  • Ryan M. Nash - Analyst

    Ryan M. Nash - Analyst

  • Yeah, got them all. Thanks, Mike. Appreciate it. Thanks again, Bill.

    是的,都問到了。謝謝你,Mike。很感謝。也再次謝謝你,Bill。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Pancari, Evercore.

    John Pancari,Evercore。

  • John Pancari - Analyst

    John Pancari - Analyst

  • Good morning. And Bill, it's been a pleasure, and all the best in retirement.

    早安。Bill,很高興與你共事,並祝你退休一切順利。

  • First, on the balance sheet optimization and NII, in your lowered outlook around NII, how much of that loan book rationalization that you cited is reflected in that guidance? Is there more that could impact next year's expectation as this continues to play out? And maybe also, what other rationalization is possible? I know you mentioned in your prepared remarks that you're continuing to evaluate the portfolio. Thanks.

    首先,關於資產負債表最佳化與淨利息收入(NII),在你們下調NII展望的部分,你提到的貸款組合精簡(rationalization)有多少已反映在這份指引中?隨著這些措施持續推進,是否還可能對明年預期造成更多影響?另外,還有哪些精簡的可能性?我知道你在事先準備的講稿中提到你們仍在持續評估投資組合。謝謝。

  • Michael Maguire - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Michael Maguire - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. Good morning, John.

    是的。早安,John。

  • The changes, the re-trending that we've made around production balances that we mentioned, as well as the exit of marine and wrecked, are in our outlook for this year. We haven't provided and don't plan to provide guidance for '27 at this point.

    我們提到在新增量餘額(production balances)方面所做的調整與重新趨勢,以及退出海事與「wrecked」業務,這些都已納入我們今年的展望。目前我們尚未提供、也不打算在此時提供對「27年的指引。

  • But in terms of what else, I would just say it's a continuous search and opportunity to make sure that we're allocating capital in the absolute most efficient way. And by the way, it's not entirely in Consumer. There are things that we've done and will continue to do in Wholesale around client selection, around pricing, around product design, rebalancing that are all intended to create more profitability and efficiency.

    至於還能做什麼,我會說這是一個持續的探索與機會,確保我們以最有效率的方式配置資本。順帶一提,這並不完全只在消費金融端。在批發端,我們已經做了、也會持續做一些事情,包括客戶選擇、定價、產品設計與再平衡,目的都是為了提升獲利能力與效率。

  • So there's nothing else to say on that for now, other than it's a really important initiative of ours to continue to deliver against this ROTCE improvement. And we're going to make smart choices, and we're going to be guided by, hey, A, what fits our strategic eye and our business model, and then, two, profitability.

    所以目前沒有更多要補充的,除了這確實是我們非常重要的一項倡議,用以持續推動ROTCE的改善。我們會做出明智的選擇,並以兩個原則作為指引:第一,是否符合我們的策略視角與商業模式;第二,獲利能力。

  • John Pancari - Analyst

    John Pancari - Analyst

  • Okay. Thanks, Mike. Now, I know you talked about the ROTCE improvement and you mentioned confidence and above the 14% level for '26. How do these actions and your updated thoughts and updated trends in general impact your 2027 15% expectation and the long term 16% to 18%?

    好的。謝謝,Mike。接著,我知道你談到ROTCE改善,並提到對2026年高於14%的水準有信心。這些行動、以及你們更新後的看法與整體趨勢,會如何影響你們對2027年15%的預期,以及長期16%到18%的目標?

  • And then just one other thing, kind of back to Ryan's question, if you could just update us on your loan growth and deposit growth expectations, your balance sheet assumptions underneath the NII outlook for this year, that would be helpful. Thanks.

    另外還有一點,回到Ryan的問題,如果你能更新一下你們對今年貸款成長與存款成長的預期、以及在今年NII展望之下的資產負債表假設,會很有幫助。謝謝。

  • William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Mike, I'll take the first part, John. So yeah, on the ROTCE expectations for the future, this quarter had some unique characteristics. And keep in mind, this track's not linear. So quarter to quarter, it might change. Obviously, we have a lot more confidence in this year as we get to more than half a year through to say we'll be at 14%-plus.

    好的。John,第一部分我來回答。關於未來ROTCE的預期,這一季有一些獨特的特徵。也請記得,這條軌跡不是線性的。所以按季來看,可能會有變動。顯然,隨著今年已經過半,我們對今年達到14%以上更有信心。

  • I just don't think it's the time to change the established targets going forward. That being said, I think we certainly feel more confident in our path to a higher-performing company. So today, change the guidance for where we are for this year, but stay on that path to higher performance and want to retain the right level of flexibility to achieve those numbers.

    我只是認為現在不是去調整既定的後續目標的時候。話雖如此,我們確實對邁向更高績效公司的路徑更有信心。所以今天,我們調整的是今年的指引,但仍維持走在提升績效的道路上,並希望保留適當的彈性來達成那些數字。

  • Michael Maguire - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Michael Maguire - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • And I'll just add to that a little, John. I mean, obviously, we were really pleased to be in the 15% area for the quarter. It's not a linear path. We do have some factors. As an example, you guys know this, you model it well. We have some preferreds that are semi versus quarter payers. And so you do have heavier preferred in two of the quarters and lighter in two others. So that's not to say that we don't feel like we're going to be on an upward trajectory, but it's not going to be a linear path, and you guys know that.

    我也再補充一點,John。很明顯,我們對本季在15%左右的表現非常滿意。但這不是線性的路徑。我們確實有一些因素。例如,你們都知道、也建模得很好。我們有一些優先股是半年付息而不是按季付息。因此有兩個季度的優先股股息負擔較重,另外兩個季度則較輕。這並不是說我們不覺得會走在向上軌道上,但它不會是線性的路徑,你們也都知道。

  • In terms of deposits and loans, we still expect to see loan growth this year. Obviously, we've delivered -- deposit growth this year. What we're seeing is low-single-digit deposit growth, call it 3% area, and this is an annual view. And just mix is what we're keeping a really close eye on. So you've seen DDA for example remix down from maybe call it 27%-ish at the beginning of the year. Maybe that resembles something closer to 25% by the end of the year and hopefully stabilizing from there.

    至於存款與貸款,我們仍預期今年會看到貸款成長。顯然,我們今年也已經實現——存款成長。我們看到的是低個位數的存款成長,約3%左右,這是以全年角度來看。而我們會非常密切關注的就是組合。例如你已看到活期存款(DDA)的占比重新配置,從年初大約27%左右下降。到年底可能更接近25%,並希望之後能從那裡趨於穩定。

  • From a loans perspective, I think we said 3% to 4% earlier this year. We're still on track for that, probably high side of that. But the bulk of that, and Bill mentioned that, is going to be on the C&I side, whereas Consumer will be closer to flat, maybe plus 1%. So that's what's in our outlook, John.

    從貸款的角度來看,我想我們今年稍早說過是 3% 到 4%。我們仍然朝這個目標前進,可能會落在區間的高端。但其中大部分——Bill 也提到過——會來自 C&I 端,而消費金融則會更接近持平,可能小幅增加 1%。所以這就是我們的展望,John。

  • William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • I mean, Mike mentioned this, the production engines are working. So the upfront side is working on the Consumer side, our Premier production for advisors up 15% on the deposit side. I talked about the loan side on the Service Finance. The quality of the production is really, really high, so the quality of the Wholesale deposit production is relationship-based, so it's not sort of just rate-based.

    我的意思是,Mike 提到過這點,生產引擎正在運轉。所以前端在消費端運作良好,我們的 Premier(顧問端)存款產能成長 15%。我也談到了 Service Finance 的貸款端。產出品質真的非常、非常高,因此批發端的存款產出是以關係為基礎,不是那種單純追逐利率的。

  • So these are clients in which we've expanded our relationship with. We have payments-related discussions with those in terms of increasing for the future. So we do have a mixed opportunity, but the good news is the production engine's working and we're adding high-quality, relationship-oriented, sort of operating-type deposits.

    所以這些都是我們已擴大往來關係的客戶。我們也就支付相關議題與他們討論,著眼於未來的提升。因此我們確實有多元的機會,但好消息是生產引擎正在運作,我們正在增加高品質、以關係為導向、偏營運型的存款。

  • John Pancari - Analyst

    John Pancari - Analyst

  • Got it. Thanks so much, Bill.

    了解。非常感謝你,Bill。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ken Usdin, Autonomous Research.

    Ken Usdin,Autonomous Research。

  • Ken Usdin - Analyst

    Ken Usdin - Analyst

  • Hi. Good morning. And Bill, once again, best of luck to you in the future.

    嗨。早安。Bill,也再次祝你未來一切順利。

  • I was wondering if you could touch a little bit more on the deposit competition, the rate chasing that you mentioned in your prepared remarks. Just can you talk about just where that's coming from? Is it any different than what we've seen? Or is it just the burden of a little bit from the higher-for-longer environment? Thanks.

    我想請你再多談一點你在事先準備的發言中提到的存款競爭、追逐利率的情況。你能談談這主要是從哪裡來的嗎?這跟我們過去看到的有什麼不同嗎?還是只是「高利率維持更久」環境帶來的一些壓力?謝謝。

  • William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. I mean, I think what we've seen in the deposit migration to higher yielding is more client behavior than competitive pressure, in fairness. I mean, I think this is a trend that we've seen that's continued. We're in a rate cycle where I don't think that's particularly unusual.

    是的。我的意思是,坦白說,我們看到存款往較高收益產品移動,更多是客戶行為,而不是競爭壓力。我的意思是,我認為這是一個我們持續看到的趨勢。我們正處於一個利率循環中,我不覺得這特別不尋常。

  • Competitive environment still is highly competitive, and we're the most competitive we've ever been in terms of product and capability. And that was my comment earlier is the production engines are working well and the client expansion and the opportunities that we see are working well. I think this is just a function of client behavior.

    競爭環境仍然非常激烈,而就產品與能力而言,我們的競爭力是史上最強。我先前的評論是,生產引擎運作良好,客戶關係擴張以及我們看到的機會也進展順利。我認為這只是客戶行為所致。

  • Ken Usdin - Analyst

    Ken Usdin - Analyst

  • Okay. And maybe one for Mike. Mike, would you mind just walking us through just that lingering amount of swaps that has to come on in terms of the book that's not active and the timing of kind of when the rest of that should be in the run rate? Thanks.

    好的。也許有一題給 Mike。Mike,你介不介意帶我們梳理一下,關於那部分尚未生效的部位,仍有多少利率交換(swaps)需要開始生效,以及其時間點大概何時會完全反映在常態化的 run rate 裡?謝謝。

  • Michael Maguire - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Michael Maguire - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. No problem, Ken. So maybe I'll take you back to the beginning of the year and just walk you through the year because as this can change.

    好的。沒問題,Ken。那我也許先帶你回到年初,按年度脈絡走一遍,因為這些數字可能會變動。

  • In the first quarter, we had just -- I'll give you the receivers and maybe give you the payers too for the offset, but we were $50 billion effective in Q1 with $24 billion of payers, so we call it net receive, $26 billion. In this most recent quarter, we were $63 billion effective, so call it plus $13 billion from Q1. Payers, relatively constant, so net effective $40 billion or so. That steps up on an effective basis for Q3 to about $80 billion and then up to $85 billion in Q4. And the payers are pretty much, call it, $23 billion for the rest of the year.

    第一季,我們——我先給你接收端(receivers),也可以把支付端(payers)一併給你作為對沖參考——Q1 生效規模是 500 億美元,其中支付端 240 億美元,所以我們稱之為淨接收(net receive)260 億美元。在最近這一季,我們生效規模是 630 億美元,所以相較 Q1 增加約 130 億美元。支付端相對持平,因此淨生效大約是 400 億美元左右。到第三季,按生效口徑會提升到約 800 億美元,第四季再升到 850 億美元。而支付端在今年剩餘期間大致是 230 億美元左右。

  • So as those come on, obviously, depending on where we are from a SOFR perspective, that will add some pressure, and that's incorporated -- you'll see that in the loan yields. And that's the received rate there, call it [3.40%].

    因此,隨著這些開始生效,顯然會取決於我們在 SOFR 的位置,這會增加一些壓力,而這已經納入——你會在貸款收益率中看到。而那邊的接收利率大約是[3.40%]。

  • Ken Usdin - Analyst

    Ken Usdin - Analyst

  • And by the end of the year, we're kind of there. I know you'll continue to work the portfolio just depending on where the rates go, but --

    到年底,我們大致就會到那個水位。我知道你們會持續管理投資組合,取決於利率怎麼走,但--

  • Michael Maguire - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Michael Maguire - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • It wasn't a very active quarter for us in terms of any swap activity we did. Just like we did in the first quarter, we took a small handful and deferred the effective start dates. I think we peak in Q1 of '27, and that's call it high-90s, and then I think from there would begin to decline.

    就我們而言,這一季在任何交換交易活動上都不是很活躍的一季。就像第一季一樣,我們挑了少數幾筆,把生效起始日往後遞延。我想我們會在 2027 年第一季達到高峰,大約是接近 900 多億(high-90s),之後我認為就會開始下降。

  • Ken Usdin - Analyst

    Ken Usdin - Analyst

  • Okay, got it. Thanks, Mike.

    好的,了解。謝謝,Mike。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Erika Najarian, UBS.

    Erika Najarian,UBS。

  • Erika Najarian - Analyst

    Erika Najarian - Analyst

  • Hi. Good morning, and congratulations, Bill. I hope you enjoy your retirement. I still remember meeting you at SunTrust, and you've been great. So I hope you enjoy your retirement.

    嗨。早安,也恭喜你,Bill。希望你享受退休生活。我還記得在 SunTrust 見到你,你一直都很棒。所以希望你享受退休生活。

  • You're welcome. You were our Chairman of the Board when you decided to name Mike Lyons as your successor. Obviously, he was inside of PNC for some time and then had a brief stint at Fiserv. You mentioned what you found in him in terms of his focus on growth.

    謝謝。你在擔任董事會主席時,決定任命 Mike Lyons 作為你的接班人。顯然,他在 PNC 內部待了一段時間,之後也曾短暫任職於 Fiserv。你提到你在他身上看到他對成長的專注。

  • But what other characteristics did you particularly, you and the Board, like about Mike in terms of taking this company to the future that you see? And maybe speak a little bit about sort of how you think he's going to frame the technology investments and potential challenges at the firm. And does he believe that this is a 16% to 18% ROTCE company over the medium term?

    但除此之外,你和董事會特別欣賞 Mike 的哪些特質,使他能帶領公司走向你們所看到的未來?也請談談你認為他會如何界定(frame)科技投資,以及公司可能面臨的挑戰。另外,他是否認為,從中期來看,這是一家 ROTCE 可達 16% 到 18% 的公司?

  • William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Thanks, Erika.

    是的。謝謝你,Erika。

  • I mean, succession planning is the most important work that a Board does, so put that in context. And we've been at this for well over a year, thinking about my timeline, but more importantly, thinking about like what's the right time for the company and are we hitting on cylinders and is this a right time for a transition.

    我的意思是,接班規劃是董事會最重要的工作,所以先把這點放在脈絡裡。我們已經投入這件事超過一年,思考我的時間表,但更重要的是,思考對公司而言什麼時點最合適、我們是否各方面運轉順暢,以及這是否是交接的適當時機。

  • And then we spent a lot of time thinking about what is the future leader of this, not only company, but this industry look like. And we did a lot of profile work against that, and I think that future leader not only has a lot of understanding about sort of the core businesses and business that we're in, but even as you noted, much more knowledge about technology and payment systems and where the proverbial puck is going and maybe where the ball is going now that we're at World Cup time.

    接著我們花了很多時間思考,這家公司的未來領導者——不只是公司,還包括這個產業——應該是什麼樣子。我們針對此做了大量的輪廓與條件比對。我認為未來的領導者不僅要對我們所處的核心業務與產業有深刻理解,而且如你所提到的,還需要對科技與支付系統有更多的認識,知道那個「冰球將要滑向哪裡」,以及在世界盃期間也可以說,球現在要往哪裡走。

  • But so those were the criteria upon which we evaluated how we wanted to think about things. And I think Mike fits that perfectly: strong commitment to performance, great track record, really strong knowledge of the payments business, probably a PhD course in the technology side at Fiserv as well, so having a chance to look across a lot of spectrum and see what others are doing, experience as a CEO, and then being a purposeful leader. I mean, so remember, that's an important part of our context as well, as someone who really cares about the communities we serve and cares about the teammates and focuses on our purpose.

    因此,這些就是我們評估與思考方向時所依據的標準。我認為 Mike 完全符合:對績效有強烈承諾、卓越的過往成績、對支付業務非常深的理解;在 Fiserv 也可說是上了一門科技面的博士課程,因此有機會橫跨很廣的光譜,看看其他人怎麼做;具備 CEO 經驗;而且是一位有使命感的領導者。我的意思是,請記得,這也是我們脈絡中很重要的一部分——他真正在乎我們服務的社區、在乎同仁,並聚焦於我們的使命。

  • As it relates to the specific targets, I can speak for Mike and the Board. I think, as I did in my prepared comments, our goal is to be a high-performing company, and I think 16% to 18% reflects that journey. So Mike came in here to go to lead and run a high-performing company. And I don't think there'll be any doubt about that.

    就具體目標而言,我可以代表 Mike 和董事會來說明。我想,正如我在事先準備的評論中所說,我們的目標是成為一家高績效公司,而我認為 16% 到 18% 反映了這段歷程。所以 Mike 來到這裡,是要領導並經營一家高績效公司。而我認為對此不會有任何疑問。

  • Relative to the investments that need to be made in the journey and the place that we go, he'll have the requisite flexibility to think about how to achieve efficiencies and how to invest. I think today, we've got a really good platform of discovery, give a lot of credit to Mike Maguire of building the platform such that the dashboard will be very clear to Mike. It won't be confusing in terms of where the opportunities are and where to invest for the long term.

    至於在這段歷程以及我們要前往的方向上需要投入的投資,他將具備必要的彈性,去思考如何達成效率提升以及如何進行投資。我認為就今天而言,我們已經有一個非常好的探索平台,這要很大程度歸功於 Mike Maguire 建立了這個平台,使得儀表板對 Mike 來說會非常清晰。在機會在哪裡、以及長期應該投資在哪裡方面,都不會令人困惑。

  • But he's got a lot of incredible strong qualities, but also, he's got a great team. You can see the results and a team that's deep. So the succession planning is not only at the CEO level, but it runs all the way through the company. So we've got a deep team sort of ready to go, fired up. And everyone's committed running a high-performing company and achieving what we all see as not only the potential but the opportunity for Truist.

    他有許多非常突出的優點,而且他也有一個很棒的團隊。你可以看到成果,以及一個很有深度的團隊。因此,接班規劃不僅是在 CEO 層級,而是貫穿整個公司。所以我們有一支很有深度、隨時準備就緒、充滿幹勁的團隊。而且每個人都致力於經營一家高績效公司,並實現我們都認為不僅是 Truist 的潛力、更是機會的目標。

  • Erika Najarian - Analyst

    Erika Najarian - Analyst

  • And just as a follow-up, I think the other investors would agree with you, Bill, that you do have a deep team. What have the conversations been like sort of underneath the surface in terms of top producers, the producers that we don't meet on the street? Obviously, having an outsider CEO announcement can be a little bit jarring. But has there been sort of outreach, whether there's conversations like with a top talent in terms of reassuring them that they're going to be part of this deep team going forward?

    另外作為追問,我想其他投資人也會同意你,Bill,你確實有一支很有深度的團隊。在表面之下,關於頂尖業務人才、那些我們在外面不會遇到的生產者,你們的對話大概是什麼樣的?顯然,宣布由外部人士擔任 CEO 可能會讓人有點震撼。但是否有進行某種程度的溝通或接觸,例如與頂尖人才對話,讓他們安心他們未來仍會是這支深度團隊的一部分?

  • William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Erika, my philosophy and our leadership team philosophy is we re-recruit everyone every day. So that's the mindset that we have in our company. And so we're on that journey.

    Erika,我的理念以及我們領導團隊的理念是:我們每天都在重新招募每一位同仁。所以這就是我們公司所抱持的心態。因此我們正走在這條路上。

  • I think they see what we see. They feel the opportunity, they see the future, they see what we're building. That allows them to not only be successful in their jobs, but to be successful in their careers because we're building great opportunities. That's a key value for our teammates is build meaningful careers. So are we re-recruiting? Yes, but we recruit every day. Are people excited? Yes, they see the potential of where we're going in the future.

    我想他們看見了我們所看見的。他們感受到這個機會,他們看見未來,也看見我們正在打造的東西。這讓他們不僅能在工作上成功,也能在職涯上成功,因為我們正在創造很好的機會。對我們的同仁而言,一個關鍵價值就是打造有意義的職涯。所以我們是否在重新招募?是的,但我們每天都在招募。大家是否感到興奮?是的,他們看見我們未來要去的方向所具備的潛力。

  • So I think also certainty helps. And so probably a little uncertainty, as to my timeline, and now we have a lot of certainty and people leaning in and leaning forward. And I think the best thing for top performers is an incredible platform, career opportunity, and a lot of certainty, and I think that's what we're delivering.

    所以我也認為,確定性是有幫助的。因此,先前對於我的時間表可能有些不確定,而現在我們有了很高的確定性,大家也更投入、更積極向前。我認為對頂尖表現者而言,最重要的是一個卓越的平台、職涯機會,以及高度的確定性,而我認為這正是我們正在提供的。

  • Erika Najarian - Analyst

    Erika Najarian - Analyst

  • Thank you for your answers. And also, just congratulations again. And I just want to give you a shout out, Bill, that not only you have a good reputation as a leader, but a great reputation for being a topnotch human being. So you will be missed.

    謝謝你的回答。也再次恭喜你。我也想特別稱讚你一下,Bill,你不僅作為領導者有很好的聲譽,也以一位非常出色的人而聞名。所以大家會想念你的。

  • William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, Erika, thank you for that.

    Erika,謝謝你。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Manan Gosalia, Morgan Stanley.

    Manan Gosalia,Morgan Stanley。

  • Manan Gosalia - Analyst

    Manan Gosalia - Analyst

  • Hey. Good morning. And Bill, I'll echo the best wishes for your retirement. Congratulations.

    嗨。早安。Bill,我也呼應大家對你退休的祝福。恭喜。

  • For my question, I apologize if this is a little repetitive, but you spoke about full-year loan spreads down 5 to 10 basis points year on year if you keep spreads where they are today. You spoke about the mix shift in loans, the mix shift in DDA balances, yield-seeking behavior from deposit holders.

    關於我的問題,如果有點重複我先道歉,但你提到如果利差維持在今天的水準,全年貸款利差將年減 5 到 10 個基點。你也談到貸款組合的轉移、DDA 餘額的組合轉移,以及存款戶追求收益的行為。

  • Can you put it all together for us and go through the assumptions baked into the new NII guide on the incremental changes to each of these components from here? I'm just trying to assess the comfort level on the new guide and what the risk will be.

    你能否幫我們把這些串起來,說明新的 NII 指引中,從現在起各個組成項目增量變化所隱含的假設?我只是想評估對新指引的把握程度,以及可能的風險。

  • Michael Maguire - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Michael Maguire - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. Hey, Manan. It's Mike. I'll take that one.

    好的。嗨,Manan。我是 Mike。這題我來回答。

  • I think I've given you some of it. I mean, I think on the -- I'd say, maybe I'll give it to you in terms of relative proportion. I think the most impactful component of the three headwinds we discussed is the unfavorable deposit mix.

    我想我已經提供了其中一部分。我的意思是,我想就——我會說,也許我用相對比重的方式來說明。我認為我們討論的三個逆風因素中,影響最大的是不利的存款組合。

  • So I think that as we, again, just to say it, still feel quite good about the fact that we're onboarding a lot of new clients, we're defending the right clients and the right opportunities, we're going to be growing client deposits this year, but the mix is going to be not as favorable as we expected at the beginning of the year or even last quarter. And so DDA is a good example. I think I mentioned we remixed closer to 25% by the end of the year.

    所以我認為,當我們——再次重申——仍然對於我們正在導入大量新客戶、我們在守住正確的客戶與正確的機會、而且今年會成長客戶存款這件事感到相當有信心,但存款的組合將不如我們在年初甚至上季所預期的那麼有利。因此 DDA 就是一個很好的例子。我想我提到過,我們到年底的組合會重新調整到接近 25%。

  • Loan spreads, again, I think coming into the year and throughout a lot of the first half, we did have an expectation that we would see some widening. We did see it bounce around a little bit. But based on what we've seen so far, and based on our new outlook, we do expect on a full-year basis to have spreads down, call it 5 to 10 basis points. We reprice about $30 billion of loans a quarter, $10 billion of it is fixed, $20 billion floating, if that gives you some sense for magnitude. That's probably the second most important factor. The reducing volume on the Consumer stuff is important, too, but it's not as important as those other two factors.

    至於貸款利差,同樣地,我認為在年初以及上半年大部分時間,我們確實預期會看到一些擴大。我們也確實看到它有些波動。但根據目前所見,以及我們新的展望,我們預期以全年來看利差會下降,大約 5 到 10 個基點。我們每季會重定價約 300 億美元的貸款,其中 100 億是固定利率、200 億是浮動利率,這或許能讓你對規模有些概念。這大概是第二重要的因素。消費金融那邊的量縮也很重要,但不如前面兩個因素重要。

  • Manan Gosalia - Analyst

    Manan Gosalia - Analyst

  • Got it. Thank you. And I guess on the capital side, just given some of the changes in loan mix and moving some loan production away from less profitable loans, I guess, why not do more than $5 billion in buybacks in the year? Clearly, you have a lot of excess capital right now.

    了解。謝謝。那我想在資本面,考量到貸款組合的一些變化,以及把部分放款生產從較不具獲利性的貸款移開,我想問為什麼全年不做超過 50 億美元的庫藏股回購?顯然你們目前有很多超額資本。

  • Michael Maguire - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Michael Maguire - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, we've talked about this a little bit in the past because this has been a question. If you look at our buyback at $5 billion, we're pretty elevated. We've got a total like net payout ratio above 100%. By the way, we think that's appropriate, given our capital position, but we think it's a prudent approach to be somewhat thoughtful in our glide path.

    是的,我們過去也稍微談過,因為這一直是個問題。如果你看我們 50 億美元的回購規模,其實已經相當高。我們的整體(淨)派息率超過 100%。順帶一提,考量到我們的資本狀況,我們認為這是合適的,但我們也認為在資本下行路徑上採取較為審慎、周全的做法是明智的。

  • So we've said we want to be at 10% by the end of '27. If you take that literally, that implies that we're going to continue to return a significant amount of capital to shareholders throughout the rest of this year and next year. And that gets us to that 10%.

    所以我們說過,希望在 2027 年底達到 10%。如果你按字面理解,這意味著在今年剩餘時間以及明年,我們將持續向股東返還相當可觀的資本。而這會讓我們達到那個 10%。

  • And we're conscious always of market factors. We're conscious, including, by the way, opportunities to grow. If we see outsized profitable growth opportunities, that's our first priority when it comes to capital. So we feel good about the $5 billion this year, and really not ready to talk about next year at this point, but also do feel good about that 10% and that glide path.

    我們也始終留意市場因素。我們也會留意(順帶一提)成長機會。如果我們看到超額且具獲利性的成長機會,在資本配置上那會是我們的第一優先。所以我們對今年的50億美元感到很有信心;至於明年,目前還不準備談,但我們也對那個10%以及那條逐步前進的路徑感到很有信心。

  • William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. I think to your point, Mike, this just allows us to have a more durable capital plan. And I think that's the -- so having really good capital, which has been a lot of our RWA efforts and things that we've done, I think just gives us a more durable flight path with a lot of flexibility.

    是的。我想就你說的,Mike,這確實讓我們能有一個更具韌性的資本規劃。而我認為這就是——擁有非常好的資本水準(這也來自我們在RWA上的許多努力以及我們所做的事情),我想這讓我們的前進路徑更穩健,同時具備很大的彈性。

  • Manan Gosalia - Analyst

    Manan Gosalia - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you.

    很好。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Securities.

    (接線員指示)Mike Mayo,富國證券。

  • Mike Mayo - Analyst

    Mike Mayo - Analyst

  • Hey, Bill. From the other comments, I do think you're a great human being. But as I've been extremely disappointed about the results this decade where the stock has been kind of dead money when the stock banks are up almost half and the S&P's almost double, so I've been very frustrated over time. So we're not here to relitigate what happened in the last decade.

    嗨,Bill。從其他評論來看,我確實認為你是一位很棒的人。但就這十年的結果而言,我一直非常失望,因為股價幾乎是原地踏步;同期間銀行股上漲了將近一半,而標普幾乎翻倍,所以我長期以來一直很挫折。所以我們今天不是要重新爭論過去十年發生了什麼。

  • But as you look going forward, what do you think can be done better? What's your advice -- what have you learned about investing for better growth than you've seen, especially with population growth in your footprint almost, as you've said, 50% better than average? Thank you.

    但展望未來,你認為哪些地方可以做得更好?你的建議是什麼——你對於投資以取得更好的成長(相較於你所看到的表現)學到了什麼,尤其是在你們的營運版圖內人口成長幾乎如你所說,比平均高出50%?謝謝。

  • William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Mike, we also want to have and are positioned to have a high-performing company. So we're aligned in terms of that objective. I think all the things that we've talked about here are the things that we're doing to position our company for growth.

    是的。Mike,我們也希望擁有、並且也已具備條件成為一家高績效公司。所以在這個目標上,我們是一致的。我認為我們在這裡談到的所有事情,都是我們正在做的,用來讓公司站上成長位置的作法。

  • We've made a lot of significant investments in technology, a lot of significant investments in talent. But I think most importantly, we're strategically aligned. So people have clear goals about what it means to be a high-performing company. We've established those with a lot of clarity. And quarter by quarter, we're making progress against those objectives.

    我們在科技上做了很多重大投資,也在人才上做了很多重大投資。但我認為最重要的是,我們在策略上是對齊的。因此大家對「成為一家高績效公司」意味著什麼,有清楚的目標。我們已經非常清楚地建立了這些目標。而且每一季,我們都在朝這些目標取得進展。

  • So what my advice would be is to stay on that track. And I think what Mike will be able to do is to provide some acceleration, some assurance, some, in fairness, intensity against that long-term objective. And I think we're just really, really extremely well positioned. I feel really good about the baton passing, but also feel really good about -- if you think about the 400, 4-by-100 relay, when we're passing the baton with somebody can run the last lap at a lot of speed against a really common objective.

    所以我的建議就是持續走在這條軌道上。而我認為Mike能做的是,提供一些加速、一些確信,坦白說,也是在這個長期目標上更強的推進力。我認為我們的定位真的、真的非常好。我對交棒感到非常踏實;同時也很有信心——如果你想像400公尺、4×100接力,我們把棒子交給能以很快速度跑完最後一棒、並且朝著共同目標前進的人。

  • So I think we're well positioned. I think the decisions we've made, particularly over the last year, providing a lot of clarity for shareholders about the direction is the exact path. And now, it's just more foot on the accelerator.

    所以我認為我們的定位很好。我認為我們做出的決策,特別是在過去一年,為股東提供了非常清楚的方向與路徑。而現在,就是把油門踩得更深。

  • Mike Mayo - Analyst

    Mike Mayo - Analyst

  • All right. Hopefully, no one drops the baton. Thank you.

    好。希望沒有人把接力棒掉了。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

    Ebrahim Poonawala,美國銀行。

  • Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst

    Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst

  • Good morning. Bill, congratulations, and all the best in retirement.

    早安。Bill,恭喜你,也祝你退休一切順利。

  • Just as a follow-up to your response in terms of what Mike Lyons could do, the acceleration part, just maybe spend a few minutes talking about that. As shareholders, we all think about, is Mike going to be a change agent, do things differently? Should we expect him to lay out a plan maybe tied to the acceleration you mentioned? Just level set those expectations for us as you've gone about recruiting him and going through that process of what that acceleration means, what's not being done today that Mike will be able to do. Or is thinking about Mike bringing in meaningful change misguided? Thanks.

    就你剛才回覆中提到Mike Lyons能做的事情、也就是「加速」那一部分,能否再花幾分鐘談談?作為股東,我們都會想:Mike會不會成為變革推動者、用不同方式做事?我們是否應該期待他提出一個計畫,可能與你提到的加速相連結?在你們招募他並走完那個流程時,請幫我們校準一下期待:所謂加速是什麼意思、目前有哪些事情沒有在做而Mike能做到?或者,認為Mike會帶來重大改變這種想法其實是誤解?謝謝。

  • William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, I want to be careful about laying out Mike's plan in today's call. But if you think about the strengths that he brings to our organization, think about his operating performance, his knowledge of the payments business, places where we're investing and want to grow our business, and a platform for which to operate. I mean, we want to set a fantastic table.

    是的,我想小心一點,不在今天的電話會議上替Mike把他的計畫講完。但如果你想想他帶給我們組織的優勢:他的營運績效、他對支付業務的了解、我們正在投資且希望擴張的領域,以及一個可供他施展的營運平台。我的意思是,我們希望把桌子擺得非常好。

  • I mean, back to the earlier comments with capital flexibility and capacity to invest and getting the platform at such a place that every incremental dollar has a more higher return profile from both an income and a capital standpoint. I think that's the setting the table component of this. But I think let's let Mike come in and talk about what he wants to do.

    回到先前關於資本彈性與投資能力、以及把平台調整到一個狀態:每增加一塊錢,無論從收益或資本角度,都能有更高的報酬輪廓。我認為這就是「把桌子擺好」的部分。但我想,還是讓Mike進來後再談他想做什麼。

  • Back to my earlier comment, Mike came here to lead a high-performing company. That was the direction from the Board, and that's the clear mandate. And by the way, that's the mandate all the way through every teammate at Truist in terms of what we're trying to accomplish. So I don't think from a global where we're going perspective, we're going to have any misalignment. How Mike wants to accomplish that, at what speed, and where he's going to place particular emphasis, I think let's wait for Mike.

    回到我先前的評論,Mike來這裡是要領導一家高績效公司。這是董事會所指引的方向,也是明確的授權。順帶一提,這個授權也一路貫穿到Truist的每一位同仁,關於我們想要達成的事情。所以我不認為在「整體要往哪裡去」的層面會有任何不一致。至於Mike要如何達成、以什麼速度、以及他會把重點放在哪些地方,我想就等Mike來說。

  • Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst

    Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst

  • All the best again. Thank you, Bill.

    再次祝一切順利。謝謝你,Bill。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Matt O'Connor, Deutsche Bank.

    Matt O'Connor,德意志銀行。

  • Matt O-Connor - Analyst

    Matt O-Connor - Analyst

  • Good morning. I was hoping you could just aggregate how much loan runoff there is from what you mentioned, the RV marine book, and then the prime auto, that going to zero. So I realize it'll be over the course of a couple or few years, but how much loan runoff in aggregate from those areas you've already identified? And then, I guess, why make the decision now to exit or run down those books? Thank you.

    早安。我希望你能把你提到的RV與船舶(marine)貸款組合,以及優質(prime)汽車貸款降到零的部分,加總一下大概會有多少貸款自然到期流失(runoff)。我知道這會在兩三年或幾年內逐步發生,但就你們已經點名的這些領域而言,合計大概會有多少貸款runoff?另外,我想問,為什麼現在做出退出或縮減這些組合的決定?謝謝。

  • Michael Maguire - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Michael Maguire - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • I'll start with the last question, Matt. Good morning.

    Matt,我先從最後一個問題開始。早安。

  • It's not really a why now. I think it's -- what we've seen is we've been talking about de-emphasizing some of these portfolios for some time now, perhaps to a lesser extent. And as we've seen success, as we've become more assertive in how we're sort of managing some of that growth, we've simply accelerated it.

    這其實不太是「為什麼是現在」。我認為是——我們一段時間以來一直在談要降低對其中一些投資組合的著墨,可能之前程度沒那麼大。而隨著我們看到成效、也更積極地管理部分成長之後,我們只是把這件事加速了。

  • I gave you a sense for the year-over-year production change, call it, $7 billion, $8 billion across those portfolios. That's just on a few of those that we identified. Our indirect auto business prime is around a $20 billion business; racks, another $4 billion or $5 billion, so we'll call it $25 billion of auto. Marine RV was a smaller portfolio, call it $4 billion.

    我給你一個年對年(YoY)承作量變化的概念,大概在這些投資組合合計減少了70億到80億美元。那只是我們點出的其中幾個。我們的間接汽車業務(indirect auto)中的優質(prime)部分大約是200億美元的業務;Racks(?)另外約40億到50億美元,所以汽車合計我們就算250億美元。Marine RV則是較小的投資組合,大約40億美元。

  • And so that stuff, A, we'll be producing less of it, and B, it's generally pretty short weighted average life subs, you'll call it 2.5, 3 years. So I think you'll see us remix again. And Bill mentioned, by the way, there are parts of the Consumer link portfolio that we are quite fond of that are more profitable, and you'll see continued production and growth there.

    因此那部分業務,A,我們會減少生產,B,它的加權平均存續期通常相當短,你可以說是2.5到3年。所以我認為你會看到我們再次進行組合重配。另外,Bill也提到,消費者連結投資組合中有一些部分我們其實很喜歡、獲利能力更好,你也會看到那裡持續的承作與成長。

  • But again, relative to the headwinds that we articulated around our updated outlook, this is the smallest component in year, but an important one nonetheless, and one that we -- again, no regrets. It just doesn't fit our eyes strategically and doesn't shin the bar from a profitability perspective.

    但再說一次,相較於我們在更新後展望中所闡述的逆風因素,這是今年最小的組成部分,但仍然很重要,而且我們——再一次——不後悔。只是從策略角度來看,它不符合我們的定位,從獲利性角度也沒有達到門檻。

  • Matt O-Connor - Analyst

    Matt O-Connor - Analyst

  • And then just to clarify, are you rightsizing auto or, as of now, at least plan to fully exit it? It sounds like you're exiting all the RV mortgage.

    那再澄清一下,你們是在縮減汽車業務規模,還是截至目前至少計畫完全退出?聽起來你們正在退出所有的RV房貸。

  • Michael Maguire - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Michael Maguire - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • I think it's rightsizing. And this is a market -- this is a business that does sort of ebb and flow depending on the competitiveness of the market and other factors. Something else that we've done, we didn't talk about it, Bill mentioned it, I mentioned it in prepared remarks, some of the work we're doing to improve our sort of the capital efficiency in some of these assets. We did complete two CLNs, and those were both in the prime auto portfolio. So I think we have about an $11 billion reference pool.

    我認為是縮減規模。而這個市場——這項業務會隨著市場競爭程度及其他因素而有起有落。另外我們做的一件事,我們沒有特別談到,Bill提過,我也在事先準備的發言中提到,就是我們正在做一些工作來提升這些資產的資本效率。我們確實完成了兩筆CLN,而且兩筆都在優質汽車(prime auto)投資組合中。所以我想我們大約有110億美元的參考資產池。

  • So about half of those loans have been CLNed. That significantly improves the ROTCE profile of those assets, essentially selling some of the unexpected losses at a really low cost to capital. So we've been -- it's a long list of things we've been doing to try to improve the -- to get some of the drag off the wings, so to speak, and create capital flexibility for ideally good profitable growth, but also to return capital to shareholders. So it's a lot of ingredients to the recipe.

    因此大約有一半的貸款已經做了CLN。這大幅改善了這些資產的ROTCE表現,本質上是以很低的資本成本把部分非預期損失賣出去。所以我們一直——我們做了很長一串事情——試圖改善,換句話說,就是把「拖累」從兩翼去掉,並創造資本彈性,理想情況下用於良好且有利可圖的成長,同時也用於回饋股東。所以這個配方裡有很多材料。

  • Matt O-Connor - Analyst

    Matt O-Connor - Analyst

  • Okay, helpful. Thank you.

    好的,很有幫助。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Gerard Cassidy, RBC.

    Gerard Cassidy,RBC。

  • Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

    Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

  • Good morning, Bill, and good morning, Mike.

    早安,Bill,也早安,Mike。

  • Bill, can you give us -- obviously, you and I have been through a few cycles and we remember the dot-com boom and the SPACs that we saw during the pandemic. Today, with AI, and this is not directed specifically for investment banking, but AI is just so big in this economy today, and it's hard to get our arms around the impact it's having other than it's positive on the economy, what are you guys looking at for the second derivatives that could impact Truist where, at some point, AI will slow down in growth? And are you guys already starting to set in motion just protections about the second derivatives that could materialize over the next two, three, or four years?

    Bill,你能否跟我們談談——顯然你我都經歷過幾個景氣循環,也記得網路泡沫,以及疫情期間我們看到的SPAC。今天有AI——這不是特別針對投資銀行——但AI在當今經濟中規模非常大,我們很難完全掌握它帶來的影響,除了它對經濟是正面的之外。你們在觀察哪些可能影響Truist的「二階衍生效應」,也就是在某個時間點AI成長放緩時可能帶來的影響?而且你們是否已經開始著手建立一些防護措施,以因應未來兩、三或四年可能浮現的二階衍生效應?

  • William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Gerard, good question. And we have been through a lot. Coming out of the last crisis, I coined an acronym, which was DVD, which is diversity, velocity, and discipline. And that's what we're employing. So we want to make sure that our portfolio has a ton of diversity. So don't over concentrate in any one area where we've seen the challenges are. And then velocity, just make sure that we're trading loans and trading activity and know price discovery and know where things are because it can change fast and on a dime.

    是的。Gerard,問得很好。我們確實經歷過很多。在上一場危機之後,我創了一個縮寫DVD,代表多元(diversity)、速度(velocity)與紀律(discipline)。而這正是我們正在採用的方法。我們希望確保投資組合具有高度多元性。因此不要在任何一個領域過度集中,因為我們已經看過那樣會帶來挑戰。接著是速度,也就是確保我們在貸款交易與交易活動上保持節奏,了解價格發現,知道市場狀況,因為情勢可能在很短時間內快速改變。

  • And then the final is just have a lot of discipline. So if you establish these targets and these limits, you have to live within them. And right now, there's a siren song of wanting to do more and being able to expand different places. And you could certainly put your foot on the accelerator and probably grow faster, but we're very conscious of the disciplined nature of this.

    最後就是要有很強的紀律。所以如果你訂了這些目標與限額,就必須遵守。而現在有一種「海妖之歌」在誘惑你想做更多、想在不同領域擴張。你當然可以把油門踩下去,可能會成長更快,但我們非常清楚必須維持這種紀律性。

  • And as you point, I mean, we look at secondary and tertiary impacts in any particular market, particularly related to the investments in AI. Today, there's been a lot of opportunity, but we want to make sure that that, back to the DVD, is very diverse. So I would say today, as you pointed, probably more in the category of opportunity, but we're eyes wide open in terms of how we want to manage this portfolio over time and think about the impacts that it can have on our business and be very, very conscious of the risk as well.

    而且如你所說,我們會在任何特定市場中觀察次級與第三級影響,尤其是與AI投資相關的影響。今天確實有很多機會,但我們要確保——回到DVD——這些機會非常分散、多元。所以我會說,今天如你指出的,可能更多屬於機會的範疇,但我們會保持高度警覺,對於我們如何隨時間管理這個投資組合、思考它可能對我們業務造成的影響,以及同時非常、非常重視風險。

  • Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

    Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

  • Very good. And like the others, good luck in your future endeavors. Thank you.

    非常好。也跟其他人一樣,祝你未來一切順利。謝謝。

  • William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    William Rogers - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks so much.

    非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. And that concludes the question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Brad Milsaps for any closing remarks.

    謝謝。問答環節到此結束。我想把會議交回給Brad Milsaps,請他做任何結語。

  • Brad Milsaps - Investor Relations

    Brad Milsaps - Investor Relations

  • Okay. Thank you, Rocco. That completes our earnings call. If you have any additional questions, please feel free to reach out to the Investor Relations team. Thank you for your interest in Truist, and we hope you have a great day.

    好的。謝謝你,Rocco。我們的法說會到此結束。如果你有任何其他問題,請隨時聯繫投資人關係團隊。感謝你對Truist的關注,祝你今天愉快。

  • Rocco, you may now disconnect the call.

    Rocco,你現在可以斷線了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Yes, sir. Thank you. And once again, that does conclude our conference call. We thank you all for attending. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful rest of the day.

    是的,先生。謝謝。再次提醒,我們的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。你們現在可以掛線,祝各位今天剩下的時間一切順利。