泰科電子 (TEL) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the TE Connectivity Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to our host, Vice President of Investor Relations, Sujal Shah. Please go ahead.

女士們，先生們，感謝各位的支持，歡迎參加 TE Con​​nectivity 2022 年第三季業績電話會議。 （操作員指示）提醒一下，今天的電話會議正在錄音中。現在，我想將會議交給主持人、投資者關係副總裁 Sujal Shah。請開始。

Good morning, and thank you for joining our conference call to discuss TE Connectivity's third quarter '22 results. With me today are Chief Executive Officer, Terrence Curtin; and Chief Financial Officer, Heath Mitts.

早安，感謝您參加我們討論 TE Con​​nectivity 2022 年第三季業績的電話會議。今天與我一起參加會議的有執行長 Terrence Curtin 和財務長 Heath Mitts。

During this call, we will be providing certain forward-looking information, and we ask you to review the forward-looking cautionary statements included in today's press release. In addition, we will use certain non-GAAP measures in our discussion this morning, and we ask you to review the sections of our press release and the accompanying slide presentation that address the use of these items. The press release and related tables, along with the slide presentation, can be found on the Investor Relations portion of our website at te.com. Due to the large number of participants on the Q&A portion of today's call, we're asking everyone to limit themselves to one question. We are willing to take follow-up questions but ask that you rejoin the queue if you have a second question.

在本次電話會議中，我們將提供一些前瞻性信息，敬請您閱讀今天新聞稿中包含的前瞻性警示性聲明。此外，我們將在今天早上的討論中使用某些非公認會計準則 (Non-GAAP) 指標，敬請您閱讀新聞稿中關於這些指標使用的部分內容以及隨附的幻燈片演示。新聞稿、相關表格以及幻燈片簡報可在我們網站 te.com 的「投資者關係」板塊找到。由於今天電話會議問答環節的參與者人數眾多，我們要求每位參與者只提問一個問題。我們願意回答後續問題，但如果您有其他問題，請重新排隊。

Now let me turn the call over to Terrence for opening comments.

現在，讓我將電話轉給特倫斯，請他發表開場評論。

Thank you, Sujal, and I also want to thank everyone for joining us today to cover our results for the third quarter, along with our outlook for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022.

謝謝蘇加爾 (Sujal)，我也要感謝大家今天加入我們，討論我們第三季度的業績以及對 2022 財年第四季度的展望。

As I normally do, and before Heath and I get into the details on the slide, I want to take a moment to discuss our performance within the backdrop of the current environment. We delivered strong performance again in the third quarter with record sales, and this represents 11% organic growth year-over-year. We had growth in each of our 3 segments and organic growth across all 9 of our business units.

像往常一樣，在Heath和我詳細討論幻燈片上的細節之前，我想花點時間討論一下我們在當前環境下的業績表現。我們在第三季再次取得了強勁的業績，銷售額創歷史新高，較去年同期成長11%。我們的三大業務板塊均實現了成長，所有9個業務部門也都實現了有機成長。

Adjusted operating margins were in the mid-18% range, and this is a level similar to where we've been running through the year despite incremental headwinds that we've been experiencing, and we also delivered record adjusted earnings per share that was above our guidance.

調整後的營業利潤率處於 18% 左右，儘管我們遇到了一些不利因素，但這一水平與我們全年的水平相似，而且我們還實現了創紀錄的調整後每股收益，高於我們的預期。

I feel our performance is a result of how we strategically positioned our portfolio around secular growth trends as well as the execution of our teams, both from a manufacturing perspective and in our ability to effectively manage pricing in this inflationary environment. I'm also proud of our team as they continue to overcome broader macro challenges to effectively serve our customers and deliver the strong financial results we're going to talk about today.

我認為，我們的業績源自於我們圍繞長期成長趨勢對投資組合的策略性定位，以及我們團隊的執行力，這不僅體現在製造層面，也體現在我們在通膨環境下有效管理價格的能力上。我也為我們的團隊感到自豪，他們不斷克服更廣泛的宏觀挑戰，有效地服務我們的客戶，並取得了我們今天要討論的強勁財務業績。

Now let me provide some color on the supply environment, key end demand trends and the development since our call 90 days ago. When we provided our guidance last quarter, we told you about an anticipated impact from the sales -- on our sales to the COVID lockdown in China. And even though these lockdowns extended further into the third quarter than our original expectations, our teams were able to recover, and the sales impact of the quarter was negligible.

現在，請容許我簡要介紹供應環境、關鍵終端需求趨勢以及自90天前電話會議以來的進展。我們在上個季度提供業績指引時，曾提到中國新冠疫情封鎖措施對銷售的預期影響。儘管這些封鎖措施在第三季持續的時間比我們最初的預期更長，但我們的團隊已經恢復了元氣，對本季的銷售影響微乎其微。

When you think about the global supply chain challenges and specifically around material availability, I would tell you they're about the same as they were 90 days ago and inflationary pressures continue to linger. One element that I want to highlight that has changed since the last time we spoke is the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. This strengthening has significantly increased the headwind we're facing from foreign currency exchange rates both year-over-year and sequentially, and Heath will talk about that a little bit more later.

說到全球供應鏈挑戰，尤其是材料供應方面，我想說，它們與90天前的情況大致相同，通膨壓力依然存在。我想強調的是，自上次我們談話以來，一個變化因素是美元走強。美元走強顯著加劇了我們面臨的外匯匯率逆風，無論是同比還是環比，希思稍後會詳細討論這個問題。

Turning to the markets. Customer demand remains strong as evidenced by our order levels and our strong backlog position. And just to highlight, our backlog has grown over 20% versus the prior year. And we are seeing some consumer-facing markets like appliance moderate, but we continue to see broad strength across our industrial segment, and we still have a number of markets that we serve that are not yet back to pre-COVID levels. And this includes automotive, commercial air as well as medical devices. And we expect growth in these businesses as supply constraints are alleviated and those markets continue to recover.

談到市場。客戶需求依然強勁，這從我們的訂單水準和強勁的待交付訂單量可以看出。需要強調的是，我們的待交付訂單量較前一年增加了20%以上。我們看到一些面向消費者的市場，例如家電市場，成長放緩，但工業領域的整體表現仍然強勁。我們服務的眾多市場尚未恢復到疫情前的水平，其中包括汽車、商用空調以及醫療設備。隨著供應緊張局面的緩解和這些市場的持續復甦，我們預計這些業務將實現成長。

The other thing that I want to highlight we've consistently talked about, and it has not changed, is the benefit we continue to see from the secular trends in our markets and the outperformance that we're generating from content growth and share gains. We are benefiting from our position as an industrial technology leader with growth from electric vehicles, smart factory applications, including automation, renewable energy and high-speed cloud and artificial intelligence applications.

我想強調的另一件事是我們一直在談論的，而且從未改變，那就是我們持續受益於市場的長期趨勢，以及我們透過內容成長和份額成長所創造的優異表現。我們受益於作為工業技術領導者的地位，在電動車、智慧工廠應用（包括自動化）、再生能源、高速雲端和人工智慧應用方面均取得了成長。

The other thing that I want to highlight that we -- as we continue to navigate through this noisy macro environment, is that we remain committed to our business model and long-term value creation by driving further growth, margin expansion and strong cash generation.

我想強調的另一件事是，在我們繼續應對這個嘈雜的宏觀環境的同時，我們仍然致力於我們的商業模式和長期價值創造，推動進一步的成長、利潤率的擴大和強勁的現金產生。

So with that as a backdrop, let me get into the slides and discuss additional highlights that are on Slide 3. Our quarter 3 sales were a record at $4.1 billion, and this was up 7% on a reported basis and up 11% organically. As I mentioned, we saw growth across each of our segments and organic growth across all of our businesses, once again demonstrating the strength and positioning of the portfolio. We generated double-digit organic growth in the industrial and communications segments and 8% organic growth in transportation despite an auto production environment that was essentially flat year-over-year. Our orders were $4.2 billion in the quarter with a book-to-bill of 1.02, and this shows that the demand environment continues to be strong, and I'll get into more details about order trends by segment when I get to the next slide.

以此為基礎，讓我進入幻燈片，並討論幻燈片3上的更多亮點。我們第三季的銷售額創下41億美元的紀錄，報告成長7%，有機成長11%。正如我所提到的，我們每個部門都實現了成長，所有業務都實現了有機成長，這再次證明了我們產品組合的實力和定位。儘管汽車生產​​環境與去年同期基本持平，但我們在工業和通訊部門實現了兩位數的有機成長，在運輸部門實現了8%的有機成長。本季我們的訂單金額為42億美元，訂單出貨比為1.02，顯示需求環境持續強勁。下一張投影片時，我將更詳細地介紹各部門的訂單趨勢。

From an earnings perspective, our adjusted earnings per share was a record at $1.86, and that's up 4% year-over-year with adjusted operating margin of 18.6%. From a cash flow generation, our year-to-date free cash flow was approximately $1 billion with approximately $1.6 billion returned to shareholders this year. And I will tell you we've been aggressive with share buybacks as we're taking advantage of the recent market price dislocations with our stock.

從獲利角度來看，我們的調整後每股盈餘創歷史新高，達到1.86美元，年增4%，調整後營業利益率為18.6%。從現金流生成來看，我們年初至今的自由現金流約10億美元，今年已向股東返還約16億美元。而且，為了利用近期市場股價波動的機會，我們積極進行股票回購。

As we look forward, we are expecting quarter 4 sales to be approximately $4.2 billion and adjusted earnings per share to be around $1.85. Our guidance reflects the benefits of an extra week that we have in the fourth quarter but also factors in the impact of an increased headwind from currency exchange rates. And if you look at the slide, we've provided the details of each of these items and how they impact our fourth quarter.

展望未來，我們預期第四季銷售額約為42億美元，調整後每股收益約1.85美元。我們的預期反映了第四季度額外一週的收益，同時也考慮了匯率不利因素的影響。如果您查看投影片，我們會提供每一項的詳細資訊以及它們對我們第四季的影響。

Before I get into orders, one thing I do want to do is move away from the financials for a moment and highlight that I'm pleased that we issued our 12th corporate responsibility report last quarter, which reinforces our One Connected World strategy. When you look at the report, it has many highlights, but one of the keys that I think is important was that we were successful in driving a 30% reduction in absolute greenhouse gas emissions in a single year in fiscal 2021, and this was a very large step towards our goal of achieving a 40%-plus absolute reduction in our Scope 1 and Scope 2 greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. So with those being the highlights on Slide 3, let me turn to Slide 4, and I'll discuss order trends as well as what we're seeing in our markets.

在談訂單之前，我想先暫時不談財務數據，強調一下，我很高興我們上季發布了第12份企業責任報告，這份報告強化了我們的「一個互聯世界」策略。報告有很多亮點，但我認為最重要的一個關鍵點是，我們在2021財年一年內成功實現了溫室氣體絕對排放量減少30%，這朝著我們到2030年將範圍1和範圍2溫室氣體排放量絕對排放量減少40%以上的目標邁出了一大步。投影片3的亮點介紹完畢，接下來請容我翻到投影片4，我將討論訂單趨勢以及我們在市場上看到的情況。

For the third quarter, our orders were $4.2 billion as we expected, and this reflects the continued strong demand environment from our customers as well as we continue to see the impacts of ongoing supply chain volatility in the markets. Our backlog is up over 20% and increased double digits in each of our segments versus the prior year. It is also important to note that currency exchange headwinds are not only impacting our sales but also, when you look on the year-on-year compares, negatively impacts the valuable orders in the third quarter. And this impact when you look at the year-on-year compare, our orders would be $230 million higher this quarter if it wasn't for the strengthening of the U.S. dollar.

第三季度，我們的訂單金額達到42億美元，符合預期，這反映了客戶持續強勁的需求環境，也反映了市場持續供應鏈波動的影響。與去年相比，我們的積壓訂單成長了20%以上，各部門的增幅均達到兩位數。同樣值得注意的是，匯率波動不僅影響了我們的銷售額，而且與去年同期相比，也對第三季的高價值訂單產生了負面影響。如果不是因為美元走強，與去年同期相比，我們本季的訂單金額應該會高出2.3億美元。

In transportation, we have a book-to-bill of 1 in the third quarter, which is in line with where the segment has run historically, and keep in mind that we also have a strong backlog position. And demand for auto remains healthy and is significantly higher than what OEMs can currently produce, providing a potential setup for future auto production increases as supply chain bottlenecks begin to resolve and dealer inventories get back to more normal levels.

在運輸領域，我們第三季的訂單出貨比為1，與該領域的歷史水準一致，而且我們還有充足的積壓訂單。汽車需求仍然強勁，遠高於汽車製造商目前的產能，隨著供應鏈瓶頸開始解決，經銷商庫存恢復到更正常的水平，這為未來汽車產量的成長提供了潛在的基礎。

In our Industrial segment, we saw another quarter of strong orders with a book-to-bill of 1.16 and growth across all businesses year-over-year. We continue to see a favorable backdrop in capital expenditures for factory automation, manufacturing capacity and renewable energy, and these trends benefit both our industrial equipment and our energy businesses. The other thing about our Industrial segment orders are we're continuing to see improving order trends in the commercial aerospace as well as medical markets where we expect growth as those markets continue to recover.

工業部門訂單量再創佳績，訂單出貨比達1.16，所有業務均較去年同期成長。工廠自動化、產能和再生能源的資本支出持續向好，這些趨勢對我們的工業設備和能源業務都有利。工業部門訂單量的另一個亮點是，我們持續看到商用航空航太和醫療市場的訂單趨勢改善，隨著這些市場的持續復甦，我們預計訂單量將有所增長。

In our Communications segment, orders reflect a double-digit increase in our backlog versus the prior year, along with expected moderation in the appliance market that we've been talking about all year. And one thing when you look at the communications order trends, it is important to note that our backlog in our Communications segment is approximately $1 billion.

在我們的通訊部門，訂單反映了我們積壓訂單量較上年同期呈現兩位數的成長，同時也反映了我們全年都在談論的家電市場預期放緩的因素。當您查看通訊訂單趨勢時，需要注意的是，我們通訊部門的積壓訂單量約為10億美元。

So with that as a backdrop on orders, let me get into the year-over-year segment results that you can see on Slide 5 through 7, and each one of those slides have the details for each segment. So starting with transportation. Our sales were up 8% organically year-over-year. Our auto business grew 9% organically versus auto production that was roughly flat versus the prior year. Global auto production was 18 million units, and this was slightly lower than our expectations due to lockdowns in China, and we do expect some sequential increase in auto production into the fourth quarter.

以訂單情況作為背景，讓我來談談各細分市場的同比業績，您可以在第5至7張幻燈片中看到，每張幻燈片都包含每個細分市場的詳細資訊。首先是運輸業務。我們的銷售額年增8%。我們的汽車業務成長了9%，而汽車產量與去年基本持平。全球汽車產量為1800萬輛，由於中國採取的封鎖措施，這一數字略低於我們的預期。我們預計第四季汽車產量將較上季成長。

The trends around our content remain robust as we continue to benefit from increased electronification as well as higher production of electric vehicles, and we do expect electric vehicles to be up over 30% this year compared to a total auto production environment that is going to be flat. As we look forward, we do expect continued expansion in our content per vehicle, and you'll see that as we move from the first half to the second half of this year. In the commercial transportation market, we saw 10% organic growth driven by North America and Europe with significant market outperformance in all regions driven by strong content growth as well as share gains.

我們的內容趨勢仍然強勁，因為我們繼續受益於電子化程度的提高以及電動車產量的提高。我們預計今年電動車的產量將成長30%以上，而整體汽車產量將持平。展望未來，我們預計每輛車的內容量將持續成長，隨著今年上半年到下半年的推進，您將會看到這一點。在商用運輸市場，我們實現了10%的有機成長，這主要得益於北美和歐洲市場的強勁成長以及市場份額的提升。所有地區的市場表現都顯著優於其他地區。

In our Sensors business, we grew 2% organically, and what was nice is that growth was driven by the focus we have on factory automation applications.

在我們的感測器業務中，我們有機成長了 2%，令人欣慰的是，這一成長是由我們對工廠自動化應用的關注所推動的。

When you look at earnings for the segment, adjusted operating margins were 17.3%, and this was impacted by the inflationary pressures. As you know, there is a time lag from when we incur higher inflation until price increases become effective with our auto customers.

從該部門的獲利來看，調整後的營業利潤率為17.3%，這受到了通膨壓力的影響。如您所知，從通膨上升到汽車價格上漲對汽車客戶產生影響，存在一個時間差。

So let's move to the Industrial segment. And in our Industrial segment, sales increased 13% organically year-over-year. Industrial Equipment was up 19% organically with double-digit growth in all regions and continued benefit from increased capital spending in factory automation.

接下來我們來看看工業部門。工業部門的銷售額年增13%。工業設備部門銷售額有機成長19%，所有地區均達到兩位數成長，並持續受惠於工廠自動化資本支出的增加。

In our Energy business, we saw 17% organic growth driven by increased penetration in renewable applications. And in our Aerospace, Defense and Marine business, this is the first time we've seen year-over-year growth since the market was impacted by COVID, and we now expect continued growth as we go forward. Our medical sales in the segment were up 1% organically with a modest increase in interventional procedures as well as medical device market is continuing to work through supply chain challenges.

在我們的能源業務中，由於再生能源應用滲透率的提高，我們實現了17%的有機成長。在航空航太、國防和海洋業務中，這是市場受新冠疫情影響以來我們首次實現同比增長，我們預計未來將繼續保持成長。該部門的醫療銷售額有機成長了1%，介入手術銷售額略有成長，醫療器材市場也持續應對供應鏈挑戰。

From a segment margin perspective, our adjusted operating margins expanded year-over-year by 100 basis points to 16.8% driven by higher volume and strong operational performance by our team. We have made significant progress on our margin progression over the past several years, and I'm pleased with how the team continues to drive towards its business model target of consistent high teens operating margin.

從分部利潤率來看，得益於銷售成長和團隊強勁的營運表現，我們的調整後營業利潤率年增100個基點至16.8%。過去幾年，我們的利潤率成長取得了顯著進展，我很高興看到團隊繼續努力實現其商業模式目標，即持續維持較高的10%營業利潤率。

So let's turn to the Communications segment. And as you can just see looking at the slide, our team continues to execute while capitalizing on the growth trends in the markets they serve. Sales growth was 16% organically year-over-year for the segment with growth in both businesses, as highlighted on the slide. In our Data and Device business, we saw market outperformance driven by content growth in high-speed cloud as well as share gains in artificial intelligence applications. And as we highlighted last quarter, these artificial intelligence applications do improve energy efficiency in the data center, and it's just another example of how we enable lower carbon emissions with our customers through our engineering. In our appliance business, it didn't perform ahead of our expectations despite the expected declines in the China market. We saw growth both in North America and Europe in our appliance business, and that is driven by continued share gains enabled by our global manufacturing strategy.

那麼，讓我們來看看通訊業務。正如您在幻燈片中看到的，我們的團隊在掌握所服務市場的成長趨勢的同時，繼續有效率地運作。正如幻燈片中所強調的，該業務部門的銷售額年增16%，兩項業務均實現了成長。在數據和設備業務方面，我們見證了高速雲端內容成長以及人工智慧應用份額成長帶來的市場領先表現。正如我們在上個季度所強調的，這些人工智慧應用確實提高了資料中心的能源效率，這只是我們如何透過工程技術與客戶共同降低碳排放的另一個例子。在我們的家電業務方面，儘管中國市場預期會下滑，但其表現並未超出我們的預期。我們的家電業務在北美和歐洲均實現了成長，這得益於我們全球製造策略帶來的持續份額成長。

From a margin perspective, the communications team continues to deliver outstanding performance. The adjusted operating margins were 26.2%, and this was up 270 basis points versus a strong quarter in the prior year, and our teams continued to deliver strong performance both on sales as well as proving margin resiliency.

從利潤率角度來看，傳播團隊持續保持卓越表現。調整後營業利益率為26.2%，較去年同期的強勁表現高出270個基點。我們的團隊在銷售額和利潤率方面均持續保持強勁成長。

So with that as a backdrop of our segment results, let me turn it over to Heath, who will get into more details on the financials as well as our expectations going forward.

因此，以我們各部門業績的背景來看，我將把時間交給希思，他將更詳細地介紹財務狀況以及我們對未來的預期。

Thank you, Terrence. And good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide 8, where I will provide more details on the Q3 financials.

謝謝，Terrence。大家早安。請翻到第8張投影片，我將在這裡提供更多關於第三季財務狀況的詳細資訊。

Adjusted operating income was $761 million with an adjusted operating margin of 18.6%. GAAP operating income was $719 million and included $30 million of restructuring and other charges and $12 million of acquisition-related charges. We continue to expect restructuring charges of approximately $150 million for the full year as we continue to optimize our manufacturing footprint and improve the cost structure of the organization.

調整後營業收入為7.61億美元，調整後營業利益率為18.6%。根據美國通用會計準則 (GAAP)，營業收入為7.19億美元，其中包括3,000萬美元的重組及其他費用，以及1,200萬美元的收購相關費用。我們預計全年重組費用約為1.5億美元，因為我們將繼續優化製造佈局並改善組織成本結構。

Adjusted EPS was $1.86, and GAAP EPS was $1.83 for the quarter and included a tax-related benefit of $0.06. And additionally, we had restructuring acquisition and other charges of approximately $0.09.

本季調整後每股收益為1.86美元，GAAP每股收益為1.83美元，包含0.06美元的稅務相關收益。此外，我們的重組收購及其他費用約為0.09美元。

The adjusted effective tax rate in Q3 was approximately 19%. For the fourth quarter, we expect our adjusted effective tax rate to be roughly 20%, so we continue to expect an adjusted effective tax rate around 19% for the full year. Importantly, we continue to expect our cash tax rate to stay well below our adjusted ETR for the full year.

第三季的調整後有效稅率約為19%。我們預計第四季的調整後有效稅率約為20%，因此我們預計全年調整後有效稅率仍將在19%左右。重要的是，我們預計全年現金稅率將遠低於調整後實際稅率。

Now turn to Slide 9. Sales of $4.1 billion, a company record, were up 17% reported and up 11% on an organic basis year-over-year. When you think about our organic growth, approximately 1/3 was driven by price increases, and the remaining 2/3 was driven by volume as a result of the strength of our portfolio. In the third quarter, currency exchange rates negatively impacted sales by $236 million and $0.07 versus the prior year. As Terrence mentioned, FX impacts have worsened significantly over the past 90 days. In Q4, we expect currency exchange rates to be a sequential headwind of approximately $70 million and a year-over-year headwind of approximately $275 million. For the full year, we now expect a negative impact from FX of roughly $700 million, which is significantly worse than our view 90 days ago.

現在翻到幻燈片 9。銷售額達 41 億美元，創下公司歷史新高，報告顯示年增 17%，有機成長 11%。有機成長中約有三分之一來自價格上漲，其餘三分之二來自強勁產品組合帶來的銷售成長。第三季度，匯率對銷售額造成 2.36 億美元的負面影響，比去年同期減少 0.07 美元。正如 Terrence 所說，外匯影響在過去 90 天顯著惡化。我們預計第四季匯率將帶來約 7,000 萬美元的環比不利影響，約 2.75 億美元的年比不利影響。就全年而言，我們預計外匯將帶來約 7 億美元的負面影響，這比我們 90 天前的預測要糟糕得多。

Adjusted EPS was a record at $1.86. Adjusted operating margins were 18.6%, and I am pleased with the performance of our team given the incremental inflationary and supply chain pressures we are seeing. We continue to pull pricing levers across the business to help partially offset these pressures. And as we talked about last quarter, while we are not able to offset these costs dollar for dollar, we continue to recover approximately 2/3 through price and the remaining through productivity initiatives. We continue taking pricing actions to offset these inflationary pressures.

調整後每股盈餘創歷史新高，達1.86美元。調整後營業利益率為18.6%。考慮到我們目前面臨的通膨和供應鏈壓力，我對團隊的表現感到滿意。我們將繼續在全公司範圍內調整價格，以部分抵消這些壓力。正如我們上個季度所討論的，雖然我們無法完全抵消這些成本，但我們仍在透過價格調整收回約三分之二的成本，並透過提高生產力的舉措收回剩餘的成本。我們將繼續採取價格調整措施來抵銷這些通膨壓力。

Turning to cash flow in the quarter. Cash from operations -- excuse me, from operating activities was $579 million. Free cash flow for the quarter was $423 million. As we mentioned in past calls, the year-over-year trend in free cash flow does reflect strategic inventory builds. However, we expect to work down inventory this quarter with Q4 expected to be the highest quarter of free cash flow for the fiscal year. Through the first 3 quarters of the year, we have returned approximately $1.6 billion to shareholders with approximately $1.1 billion returned through share buybacks. We will continue to remain disciplined in our use of capital. And near term, we have been aggressive in buying back our stock and taking advantage of investing in our own value creation opportunities.

談談本季的現金流。經營活動現金流——不好意思，是經營活動現金流——為5.79億美元。本季自由現金流為4.23億美元。正如我們在過去電話會議中提到的，自由現金流的同比趨勢確實反映了策略性庫存的增加。不過，我們預期本季庫存將減少，預計第四季將是本財年自由現金流最高的季度。今年前三個季度，我們已向股東返還約16億美元，其中約11億美元是透過股票回購返還的。我們將繼續嚴格控制資本使用。短期內，我們一直在積極回購股票，並利用投資機會創造自身價值。

So we've made significant progress towards our business model over the past few years, and our teams are continuing to execute well in a volatile environment. The strategic positioning of the portfolio has enabled us to deliver sales growth, margin resiliency and EPS expansion despite the challenges we are facing. We will continue to focus on what we can control to effectively serve our customers and drive strong financial performance, including strong cash generation.

過去幾年，我們在業務模式方面取得了顯著進展，我們的團隊在動盪的環境中仍然保持著良好的業績。儘管面臨挑戰，但產品組合的策略定位使我們能夠實現銷售額成長、利潤率韌性和每股盈餘成長。我們將繼續專注於我們能夠掌控的領域，以有效地服務客戶，並實現強勁的財務業績，包括強勁的現金創造能力。

So now let's open it up for questions, Sujal?

那現在我們可以開始提問了，Sujal？

Thank you. Can you please give the instructions for the Q&A session?[id="-1" name="Operator" />

謝謝。請問您能提供問答環節的說明嗎？ [id="-1" name="Operator" />

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Chris Snyder with UBS.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自瑞銀的克里斯·史奈德。

I wanted to ask about expectations for global auto production over the next couple of quarters. Obviously, a big debate in the market. Consumers are pressured, but we've already had production in your top levels for the last 2 years. So just what are you hearing from customers around expectations for production and intern connectors over the visible time horizon? I would also be interested in any views on auto demand versus production debate.

我想問一下未來幾季全球汽車產量的預期。顯然，市場上存在很大爭議。消費者面臨壓力，但過去兩年我們的產量已經達到了最高水準。那麼，您從客戶那裡了解到了哪些關於未來可見時間範圍內產量和內部連接器需求的預期？我也想了解汽車需求與產量之爭的任何觀點。

Sure, Chris. Thanks for the question, and let's just frame it a little bit. Auto production, I talked about it in my comments. We think in our fiscal year, the September year, there's going to be 76 million vehicles made this year, and that's the same amount as it was made last year. And if you look at demand, we would tell you we think demand is well above 80 million units. And also to give you another guide that goes back in '19 pre-COVID, there was 88 million cars made on the planet.

當然，克里斯。謝謝你的提問，我們先簡單聊聊這個問題。汽車產量，我之前在評論中提到過。我們預計，在截至9月份的財年，今年的汽車產量將達到7,600萬輛，與去年的產量持平。如果從需求來看，我們認為需求量遠超過8,000萬輛。另外，再給大家一個參考數據，2019年新冠疫情爆發前，全球汽車產量為8,800萬輛。

So we still have a way to go to get back to pre-COVID production, and we can also see where inventory levels are in pretty much every region of the world still very low. So we do think there is potential for production increases. Even if demand comes down a little bit, there's still a big disconnect between demand levels versus what our customers can deliver, and a lot of that is well documented from the OEMs around semiconductor supply and things like that.

因此，我們距離恢復新冠疫情前的產量還有很長的路要走，而且我們也看到，全球幾乎所有地區的庫存水準仍然非常低。因此，我們確實認為產量有提升的潛力。即使需求略有下降，需求水準與客戶交付能力之間仍然存在很大差距，而這在半導體供應等方面的原始設備製造商（OEM）都有充分的記錄。

I think the other thing that I just want to say is that we did see 18 million units made this quarter. Going into the next quarter, we do think, and I said in my prepared remarks, 19 million units. And so there is, I think, upward momentum to production. As we move into next year, the supply chain continues to improve.

我想說的另一件事是，本季我們確實生產了1800萬台。進入下個季度，我們預計——我在準備好的發言稿中也提到了——產量將達到1900萬台。因此，我認為產量有上升的勢頭。進入明年，供應鏈將持續改善。

I think to Heath's point, though, the other thing is what we control, we control content. We don't control production. Certainly, TE does not make semiconductors. But I think the other element I just want to stress is, and I think it's shown up through this period even in a tough production environment like we've been in the past couple of years, how our content has expanded from what was in the 60s, consistently in the '80s, you've seen an increase in the second half, really shows where we position the portfolio, both around electric vehicles continue to be built, continue to be a bigger pie but also from the electronification. And as I've told you in other calls, you look at that $20-plus delta per vehicle. About 60% of that is driven by electric vehicle growth. The other 40% is due to electronics on both combustion engines as well as electric vehicles.

不過，我認為希思的觀點是，另一件事是我們在控制什麼，我們控制內容。我們不控制生產。當然，TE 不生產半導體。但我想強調的另一個因素是，即使在過去幾年艱難的生產環境中，這一點也得到了體現，我們的內容從 60 年代的水平開始不斷擴展，在 80 年代持續增長，下半年更是出現了增長，這真正體現了我們的產品組合定位，既圍繞電動汽車的持續生產，繼續擴大市場份額，也源於電子化。正如我在其他電話會議中提到的，每輛車 20 多美元的增量。其中約 60% 是由電動車的成長所驅動的。另外 40% 則來自內燃機和電動車的電子設備。

So I do think, while production has been frustrating, I do think we're still well below demand. And if we do get some breaks on semiconductor and other supply chain, there could be upside as we go next year even with a cloudy macro environment.

所以我確實認為，雖然生產情況令人沮喪，但我們的產量仍然遠低於需求。如果我們在半導體和其他供應鏈方面取得一些突破，即使宏觀環境陰雲密布，明年的業績也可能出現上漲。

[id="-1" name="Operator" />

[id="-1" name="操作員" />

Your next question comes from David Kelley with Jefferies.

您的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 David Kelley。

Maybe to follow up on the order summary page and specifically in the transportation and communications orders, which pulled back a bit here. Can you talk about demand trends and maybe transportation kind of outside of automotive and then also what you're seeing in communications? And maybe also if you could give us a sense of how orders are tracking for both end markets, Q4 to date, that would be great?

或許可以跟進訂單匯總頁面，特別是運輸和通訊領域的訂單，這兩個領域的訂單有所回落。您能否談談需求趨勢，以及汽車產業以外的運輸業，以及您在通訊領域看到的情況？另外，如果您能給我們介紹一下第四季度迄今為止這兩個終端市場的訂單情況，那就太好了。

Sure. So let me take the first -- the last piece of your question first. So when you look at our orders in July at total TE level, they're running very similar to what they were running at last quarter. So our orders overall have been pretty steady here, what we saw last quarter as we go into this one month in. So from July, they remain healthy.

當然。那麼，我先來回答你問題的第一點——最後一點。如果你看我們7月的訂單量，你會發現它們的運作情況與上一季非常相似。所以，從本月的情況來看，我們的訂單總體上相當穩定，與上一季的情況基本一致。所以從7月開始，我們的訂單量就一直保持健康。

The other thing that I think is important is we do have to keep in perspective, and we talked about this a lot over the past year, 2 years. A lot of customers were ordering ahead. Certainly, we have an elevated backlog position. And even in some of the compares like our Communications segment, last year in this quarter, our orders were over $800 million. So it's very strong comparison and tough comparison.

我認為另一件重要的事情是，我們必須保持客觀，過去一兩年我們對此討論過很多次。很多客戶都在提前下訂單。當然，我們的積壓訂單量很高。即使在一些比較中，例如我們的通訊部門，去年本季我們的訂單量也超過了8億美元。所以，這是一個非常強勁的對比，也是一個艱難的對比。

What we continue to look at in our orders is orders with backlog. And I mentioned on the call, communications, we have $1 billion of backlog, and our communication customers did a good job of ordering out. I do think they did a better job than our transportation customers when they were trying to make sure they were securing supply. And overall, that's what you're seeing in the trends.

我們在訂單中持續關注的是積壓訂單。我在電話會議上提到，通訊業務積壓了10億美元的訂單，我們的通訊客戶在訂單交付方面做得很好。我認為他們在確保供應方面做得比我們的運輸客戶更好。總的來說，這就是你在趨勢中看到的。

So as we look forward, and no different with our guide, we continue to see healthy demand trends. Certainly, the industrial markets continue to look like they're accelerating, and we have 2 of our 4 markets in industrial. We're a little bit later to the recovery party with medical and commercial aerospace. Industrial equipment stays strong. And the one market that we do see moderation in which isn't a surprise that we talked about has been the appliance market. We would have thought there'd be moderation even before now. We sold it in China. Certainly, that's tied to housing and property, and we would expect that will continue to moderate. But when we say moderation, you're really talking about our orders sequentially going from our March quarter to our June quarter being down like 12%. I don't want us to be they're falling off a cliff, but they did moderate. And certainly, the backlog also supports where we guided. So hopefully, that gives you better color about how we think about and also confidence.

展望未來，與我們的預期一致，我們繼續看到健康的需求趨勢。當然，工業市場看起來仍在加速成長，我們的四個市場中有兩個屬於工業市場。醫療和商用航空航太市場復甦稍晚。工業設備保持強勁。我們確實看到一個市場有所放緩，這並不令人意外，那就是家電市場。我們之前就預料到會出現放緩。我們在中國銷售家電。當然，這與房地產市場息息相關，我們預計這種情況會繼續放緩。但我們所說的放緩，實際上是指從3月季度到6月季度，我們的訂單量環比下降了12%。我不希望看到訂單量急劇下降，但訂單量確實有所放緩。當然，積壓訂單也支持了我們的預期。希望這能讓您更了解我們的想法以及信心。

[id="-1" name="Operator" />

[id="-1" name="操作員" />

Our next question comes from Wamsi Mohan from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Wamsi Mohan。

Terrence, can you talk about the various moving pieces in margins across the segments? Automotive was weaker, and I know you experienced a lot of headwinds in the quarter, but comms and industrials were quite strong. How should we think about the trajectory from here? And also if you could address how the incremental margin should track? Because that seemed to decelerate somewhat in the quarter.

Terrence，您能談談各個細分市場利潤率的變化嗎？汽車業務表現較弱，我知道你們在本季經歷了許多阻力，但通訊和工業業務表現相當強勁。我們該如何展望未來的發展軌跡？另外，您能否談談增量利潤率該如何變化？因為增量利潤率在本季似乎有所放緩。

Wamsi, this is Heath, and I appreciate the question. Listen, I think if we just start with where we are at TE in total, right, we're still tracking in that mid-18% level, which is really where we've been tracking most of the year. And there's no doubt some of the strength coming out of our communications segment and then some of the improvement we're seeing in industrial has helped offset some of the pricing lag that we get in the automotive and overall transportation business. But we're pretty pleased with the diversity of the portfolio and the ability to be able to withstand these volatile environments.

Wamsi，我是Heath，我很感謝你的提問。聽著，我想，如果我們先從TE整體的現狀開始說起，我們仍然保持在18%左右的水平，這實際上也是我們今年大部分時間的水平。毫無疑問，我們通訊部門的一些強勁表現，以及我們在工業領域看到的一些改進，幫助抵消了我們在汽車和整體運輸業務中遇到的一些定價滯後。但我們對產品組合的多樣性以及能夠承受這些動盪環境的能力感到非常滿意。

Part of the answer to your question, though, is the timing on when price increases go into effect. Within transportation, specifically, you're dealing with a lot of automotive customers, and there's a lag between when we see the price increases go in relative to when we see the impact of inflation. And I think it's important for us all to remember that where we operate in the world, the inflation looks very different. And in some cases, it has worsened, including in Europe, where energy prices have continued to be a pretty significant headwind.

不過，你問題的部分答案在於漲價生效的時間。具體來說，在運輸業，你面對的是許多汽車客戶，我們看到漲價的時間與我們看到通膨影響的時間之間存在滯後。我認為我們所有人都應該記住，在我們營運的世界各地，通膨情況看起來非常不同。在某些情況下，通膨情況甚至惡化，包括在歐洲，能源價格持續成為相當大的阻力。

So we are offsetting about 2/3 of that inflationary pressure with price, which as you know well, is moving into positive price, it was a big move coming out of COVID here. But it does still -- because we can only cover about 2/3 of it, it still does require us to make up the difference through either productivity initiatives and then obviously what we've been undertaking with some of the longer-term restructuring activities.

因此，我們正在用價格抵消大約三分之二的通膨壓力，正如你們所知，價格正在轉為正值，這是新冠疫情結束後的一個重大舉措。但由於我們只能涵蓋大約三分之二，我們仍然需要透過提高生產力的舉措，以及我們一直在進行的一些長期重組活動來彌補差額。

Within the quarter, I think it'd be fair to say transportation also felt a little bit of the impact from China, just the inefficiencies of not shipping much for 2 months and then catching it all up in the final month of the quarter. That did have an impact. And as we move forward, I think we'll continue to focus in on where we stand from our ability to be able to pass on price. But overall, we're feeling good in where we stand. So with that, hopefully, that answers your questions.

在本季度，我認為公平地說，運輸也受到了來自中國的一些影響，主要是因為效率低下，兩個月內發貨量很少，然後到季度最後一個月才全部補齊。這確實造成了影響。未來，我認為我們將繼續關注我們目前的處境，以及我們能否將價格傳導出去。但總的來說，我們對目前的處境感到滿意。希望以上內容能解答您的疑問。

[id="-1" name="Operator" />

[id="-1" name="操作員" />

Our next question comes from Mark Delaney with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的馬克·德萊尼。

Just to better understand the FX impacts and from a couple of dimensions potentially. So first, you spoke to some of the translational impacts. But are you seeing any change in actual business conditions? And are any of the international companies potentially be more aggressive with quoting activity given some of the changes in currencies? And then specifically to the P&L, I was hoping you can maybe speak a little bit more specifically to the 4Q sequential EPS. I think you said $70 million on revenue quarter-on-quarter. Could you speak to the EPS impact?

為了更好地理解外匯影響，我可以從幾個角度來探討。首先，您談到了一些匯率變動的影響。但您是否看到實際業務狀況有任何變化？考慮到匯率的一些變化，是否有任何跨國公司可能會更積極地進行報價活動？然後，具體到損益表，我希望您能更具體地談談第四季度的環比每股收益。我記得您說過，營收季增了7000萬美元。您能談談每股盈餘的影響嗎？

Sure, Mark, this is Heath. As I said on the call, it's -- when we sat here 90 days ago, I gave a number of range for the full year FX impact. I think I said between $400 million and $500 million, and that has stepped up by a couple $250 million for our full year now to about $700 million. And about 75% of that has been in the second half of our fiscal year that we're in the middle of right now. So it does flow through when we give the translational impact. The overall EPS impact from all that, it's about $0.17 for the full year FY '22. So it is meaningful to us.

當然，馬克，我是希思。正如我在電話會議上所說，90天前我們坐在這裡的時候，我給了一個全年外匯影響的區間。我記得當時說的是4億到5億美元之間，而現在全年的外匯影響已經增加了2.5億美元左右，達到約7億美元。其中約75%發生在我們目前正處於中期的下半年。所以，當我們計算外匯影響時，這些影響確實會反映出來。所有這些因素對22財年全年每股收益的影響約為0.17美元。所以這對我們來說意義重大。

In the fourth quarter, we expect that number to be year-over-year, about $275 million, so incrementally worse than what we saw in the third quarter. And as we look into the first -- we look into FY '23, obviously, we'll provide more guide here next quarter. But if we just snapped the line in the sand right now with where various currencies are, it would be about a $300 million headwind in FY '23 for us, most of which would be in the first half of our fiscal year. So there are some numbers out at you just to try to frame up what we're seeing out there.

我們預計第四季的業績將年減約2.75億美元，比第三季略有下降。展望2023財年，我們下個季度會提供更多指引。但如果我們現在就各種貨幣的匯率來判斷，那麼2023財年我們將面臨約3億美元的逆風，其中大部分將出現在財年的上半年。因此，我們在此提供一些數據，以便您了解我們所看到的情況。

Now your question on the competitive landscape, we really haven't seen a whole lot of difference in that yet. We're keeping an eye on it. But for the most part, we haven't seen anything change considerably in terms of how competitors are treating each other or along those lines. And listen, we're not economists. We're not going to predict where the dollar is going to go relative to these other currencies that we do transact in, but we feel pretty good about our balanced position globally.

關於您關於競爭格局的問題，我們目前還沒有看到太多變化。我們正在密切關注。但總體而言，我們並沒有看到競爭對手之間如何相互對待，或類似方面發生任何重大變化。聽著，我們不是經濟學家。我們不會預測美元相對於我們交易的其他貨幣的走勢，但我們對我們在全球範圍內的平衡地位感到相當滿意。

[id="-1" name="Operator" />

[id="-1" name="操作員" />

Our next question comes from Joe Giordano with Cowen and Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen and Company 的 Joe Giordano。

This is Robert Jameson in for Joe. Just wanted to pivot quickly and ask about the buyback activity. It looks like you guys are running about 2x what you did last year this time. Just wondering if there's any changes to your capital allocation strategy?

我是羅伯特‧詹姆森 (Robert Jameson)，代替喬。我想快速轉個話題，問問你們的回購活動。看起來你們這次的回購規模是去年的兩倍左右。我想知道你們的資本配置策略有什麼改變嗎？

This is Heath. I'll take this question. Listen, long term, our strategy is unchanged, right? If you think about it over a cycle, we still think about 2/3 of our free cash flow being returned to shareholders in the form of buyback and dividends and about 1/3 being used for M&A. However, there's -- we've always qualified that with -- there will be times when we might deploy more into M&A. There will be times when we might deploy more through buybacks. And that kind of takes into consideration market dynamics, where we're trading, the value of acquisitions out there relative to our value and weighing everything through a strategic lens as well.

我是希思，我來回答這個問題。聽著，從長遠來看，我們的策略沒有改變，對吧？如果以一個週期來考慮，我們仍然認為三分之二的自由現金流會以回購和股利的形式返還給股東，大約三分之一會用於併購。但是，我們一直強調這一點——有時我們可能會將更多資金投入併購。有時我們可能會透過回購來增加投入。這需要考慮市場動態、我們的交易地點、收購的價值相對於我們自身的價值，以及策略觀點來權衡所有因素。

So we have the good fortune that we have a very strong balance sheet, and that has allowed us to play offense in the near term here. It's allowed us to play offense in the sense that we were able to make some strategic inventory builds and flex our working capital to make sure we're taking care of our customers. That's not letting ourselves off the hook. We will start working that back down. Now that we're seeing a little bit in certain markets, a little bit more visibility allows us to plan and our factories. But we've been able to flex with that. We've been able to flex, obviously, using our free cash flow for buybacks as well. But I would not consider this a permanent change but more of an opportunity into create value for our shareholders.

我們很幸運，擁有非常強勁的資產負債表，這讓我們在短期內能夠主動出擊。這讓我們能夠主動出擊，因為我們能夠進行一些策略性庫存建設，並靈活運用營運資本，以確保我們能夠更好地服務客戶。但這並非讓我們脫離困境。我們會開始努力解決這個問題。現在我們在某些​​市場看到了一些曙光，更高的透明度讓我們能夠更好地規劃和營運工廠。但我們能夠靈活應對這種情況。顯然，我們也能夠靈活地利用我們的自由現金流進行回購。但我不會認為這是一個永久性的改變，而是一個為股東創造價值的機會。

[id="-1" name="Operator" />

[id="-1" name="操作員" />

Your next question comes from Amit Daryanani with Evercore.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Amit Daryanani。

Yes. So I guess I was asking for a clarification. Terrence, the question for you as we think about beyond the September quarter, I think there's a lot of concern around what '23 could look like given all the macro marries that are out there. Can you perhaps just maybe talk about the cost growth that you see at TE as it relates to '23 across the segments? Would be helpful, I think, to just level set things like content growth, and how you see that stacking up next year?

是的。所以我想問一下，請您澄清一下。 Terrence，我們考慮九月季度之後的情況，我想問您的問題是，考慮到目前宏觀經濟形勢，大家對2023年的情況非常擔憂。您能否談談TE的成本成長情況，以及它與2023年各部門成本成長之間的關係？我認為，這有助於您了解內容成長等因素，以及您認為明年的內容成長會如何？

And then, Heath, if you could just clarify, I heard your discussion on margins. Maybe I don't appreciate this enough yet. Why are margins going down in September quarter sequentially when I think some of these headwinds you've talked about [should set alleviate]. So maybe just talk with the margin puts and takes as well for September.

然後，希思，能否請您澄清一下？我聽到了您關於利潤率的討論。也許我對此還不夠了解。為什麼9月份當季的利潤率環比下降，而我認為您提到的一些不利因素應該會有所緩解？所以，或許可以談談9月的利潤率。

Thanks. And let me get into the first half of your question. And as you know, we've been guiding a quarter out to anything. We'll give you more about next year, but I'll give you some initial thoughts here, and then we'll tighten them up in 90 days.

謝謝。讓我來回答你問題的前半部。如你所知，我們一直在為任何事提前一個季度做出預測。關於明年，我們會提供更多細節，但我先在這裡給出一些初步想法，然後我們會在90天內完善這些計劃。

The transportation back to an earlier question I had, content feel very good about. And you can all see the OEM programs that are coming out on electric vehicles. It isn't 1 or 2 OEMs in the world, every OEM in the world that's coming out with electric vehicles that the content momentum that we've had, we continue to see that and probably being closer to the higher end of the range that we've talked about in the 4 to 6.

回到我之前的問題，關於交通運輸，我對內容非常滿意。大家都能看到OEM廠商正在推出電動車計畫。世界上不是只有一兩家OEM廠商，而是每一家推出電動車的OEM廠商，我們一直保持著內容成長勢頭，並且可能更接近我們之前提到的4到6個電動車市場的高端。

But that's not only in automotive, that's also in commercial transportation. And our commercial transportation teams in driving a lot of content, so I think you can have a good content there. And let's face it, this year in Commercial Transportation in '22, China was rough. China drove the entire global market to contract this year, but our team group. And I do think, as you think about some of the stimulus China is doing around infrastructure as well as what they're doing around auto stimulus as they're coming out of COVID, I do think there's upside opportunity versus the production environment in both of those markets that I said earlier. And certainly, that China stimulus is important because it's one of the most -- the bigger market in the U.S. as well as Europe.

但這不僅存在於汽車領域，也存在於商業運輸領域。我們的商業運輸團隊推動了大量內容的發布，所以我認為你在這方面可以獲得不錯的內容。說實話，2022年商業運輸領域，中國市場表現不佳。中國市場導致今年全球市場萎縮，但我們的團隊…我認為，考慮到中國在基礎設施建設方面採取的一些刺激措施，以及他們在擺脫新冠疫情后在汽車領域採取的刺激措施，我認為與我之前提到的這兩個市場目前的生產環境相比，這兩個市場都存在上行機會。當然，中國的刺激措施很重要，因為它是美國和歐洲最大的市場之一。

In Industrial, I would tell you feel good about the CapEx trends. We feel very good about the renewable positioning we've done in energy, and you saw our 17% growth here this quarter in energy. I think you're going to continue to see that momentum because they were tied to good trends. And then comm air and medical, I know I spoke about they're growing again. But in comm air, we're still only at 2/3 of what we were pre- COVID. And while single-aisle is improved, there's double-aisle opportunity that's even more content for us in a single-aisle aircraft. So the content is true there, and it's really about how does the large airframers continue to ramp production as it gets in there.

在工業領域，我想說，我們對資本支出趨勢感到樂觀。我們對能源領域再生能源的佈局非常滿意，本季能源領域成長了17%。我認為這種勢頭會持續下去，因為它們與良好的趨勢息息相關。然後是通訊航空和醫療領域，我知道我之前提到它們正在恢復成長。但在通訊航空領域，我們的業務仍只有新冠疫情之前的三分之二。雖然單通道飛機的性能有所提升，但雙通道飛機也有機會，這對我們來說，單通道飛機的潛力更大。所以，雙通道飛機的潛力是毋庸置疑的，關鍵在於大型飛機製造商如何在進入該領域後繼續提高產量。

When you look at our Communications segment, I think it's going to be probably a tale of 2 cities. The appliance market we talked to you about, we expect that to moderate next year, but offsetting that will be cloud CapEx. And the question, where does cloud CapEx go after it was up 20% this year? We do expect cloud CapEx growth next year. We just have to see where our customers really put it at. I'm not sure it will be at 20%, but I still believe it will be growth.

看看我們的通訊部門，我認為它很可能會出現「兩個城市的故事」。我們之前談到的家電市場，我們預計明年會有所放緩，但雲端運算的資本支出將抵消這一成長。問題是，今年雲端運算的資本支出增加了20%，之後會去哪裡？我們確實預期明年雲端運算的資本支出將會成長。我們只是需要看看客戶的實際投入。我不確定會不會達到20%，但我仍然相信它會成長。

So there's a bunch of moving pieces out there. But I would tell you, when we look at the order trends, we also look at the content growth that you've seen in our results, plus the backdrop of where we play. It still feels very constructive as we go into '23. And as I said, when we get on our next quarter call, we'll add more color versus what we're seeing. So Heath, why don't you take the second piece of the question.

所以有很多不確定因素。但我想告訴你，當我們觀察訂單趨勢時，我們也會觀察你在業績中看到的內容成長，以及我們業務所在的背景。邁入2023年，這仍然讓我們感覺非常有建設性。正如我所說，當我們進行下一季電話會議時，我們會根據目前的情況添加更多細節。那麼，希思，你能否回答這個問題的第二部分？

Sure, Amit. Your question was relative to implied margins for Q4. As you know, we did not guide a margin number. So if you're backing into a margin number relative to the sales and the EPS, I think, one, taking consideration the tax rate is going to be 1 point higher as we guided in the fourth quarter.

當然，阿米特。你的問題是關於第四季的隱含利潤率的。如你所知，我們沒有給出利潤率的預測。所以，如果你要參考與銷售額和每股盈餘相關的利潤率數字，我認為，首先，考慮到稅率會比我們在第四季預測的稅率高出1個百分點。

So we're not seeing a dramatic falloff in margins. But if you're on the fringes, if you will, keep in mind a couple of things as we signaled. We do expect our Communications segment to be a little bit lower revenue levels in the fourth quarter just because some of the appliance pieces that Terrence just talked about. That has a little bit of a mix impact. There's no change in our assumptions around this inflation and price go get when we're only covering 2/3. And then again, on the fringes, we're going to be working on some inventory in the quarter, and that's going to have a little bit of impact as we work through that cap. But it's not something that we see falling materially at all, if any.

所以，我們的利潤率並沒有大幅下滑。但如果你處於邊緣地帶，請記住我們之前提到的幾點。我們預期通訊部門第四季的營收水準會略有下降，原因就是Terrence剛才提到的一些家電產品。這會產生一些綜合影響。當我們只涵蓋2/3的市場時，我們對通膨和價格上漲的假設沒有改變。此外，在邊緣地帶，我們將在本季度處理一些庫存，在我們突破庫存上限的過程中，這會產生一些影響。但我們認為這不會有實質的下降，甚至不會。

[id="-1" name="Operator" />

[id="-1" name="操作員" />

Your next question comes from William Stein with Truist Securities.

您的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 William Stein。

Terrence, if we zoom out and don't really focus on any particular end market or segment, just look at the overall revenue performance and overall bookings, this sort of feels like the elusive soft landing. We're still seeing good revenue growth, but the orders are backing off these very elevated levels that we've experienced in recent quarters. Is that the way you all see it? And if that's the right characterization, how many more quarters of this sort of performance do you anticipate? Do you think that this is going to continue to play out and we'll continue to see perhaps a moderation of orders but sort of a burning of the backlog and revenue growth still sort of at good levels?

Terrence，如果我們放眼全局，不去關注任何特定的終端市場或細分市場，只看整體收入表現和整體訂單量，就會感覺這像是難以捉摸的軟著陸。我們的營收成長仍然良好，但訂單量正在從最近幾季的高點回落。你們都這麼認為嗎？如果這種描述是正確的，您預計這種表現還會持續幾個季度？您認為這種情況會持續下去嗎？我們可能會繼續看到訂單量有所放緩，但積壓訂單量會減少，而收入成長仍會保持在良好水平？

Well, thanks for the question, and I guess -- I know we spoke to many about it. When we think about our business and the lead time for our product, let's put things into perspective about our lead times. For an average product, you might be 6 to 12 weeks.

嗯，謝謝你的提問，我想——我知道我們和很多人討論過這個問題。當我們考慮我們的業務和產品的交付週期時，讓我們來客觀地看待我們的交付週期。對於一款普通產品來說，交付週期可能為6到12週。

So I do want to frame when you look at TE, when you think about an average lead time, you're 6 to 12 weeks. It's not some of the lead times you hear from other product categories that you have. So there's an element here of -- when we were talking to you about book-to-bill at 1.20 (sic) [1.02], we always said that we'll come a time that as markets become more normalized, we would expect our book-to-bill to reflect more normal patterns than a 1.2 book-to-bill.

所以我確實想強調一下，當你考慮TE時，當你考慮平均交付週期時，你的交付週期是6到12週。這不是你從其他產品類別中聽到的一些交付週期。所以這裡有一個因素——當我們和你談論1.20（原文如此）[1.02]的訂單出貨比時，我們總是說，隨著市場變得更加正常化，我們預計我們的訂單出貨比會反映出比1.20更正常的模式。

So when I look at it and I think about transportation, getting closer to 1, we expected to get to. Certainly, as we work our backlog, like you saw on communications, we got a lot of backlog. We have over $1 billion of backlog in communications. Customers, they feel good with that backlog, they're not going to place more orders. They're going to want to work that off, and we look for pushes and cancellations. Are people pushing out orders? Or are they canceling orders? We are not seeing any major trends in pushes and cancellations.

所以當我看到運輸業務時，它越來越接近我們預期的1。當然，正如你在通訊業務中看到的，我們在處理積壓訂單時，積壓訂單很多。我們在通訊業務方面有超過10億美元的積壓訂單。顧客對這些積壓訂單感到滿意，他們不會再下訂單了。他們會想盡快處理這些訂單，因此我們會關注訂單的延遲和取消情況。有人在延後訂單嗎？還是有人在取消訂單？我們沒有看到訂單延遲和取消方面有任何明顯的趨勢。

So with the indicators that we're looking at show that, hey, while we have some markets in transition like appliance that we've been highlighting to you, we also still have markets that are still trying to catch up like commercial aerospace. So I do think it's an environment where not everything is going up to the -- and growing and we just have to realize if the customer is concerned about the macro, they're probably going to get a little bit more conservative and say, "Hey, let me work off a little bit of backlog."

所以，根據我們關注的指標來看，雖然有些市場正處於轉型期，例如我們之前一直強調的家電市場，但也有一些市場仍在努力追趕，例如商用航空航太市場。所以，我確實認為，在目前的環境下，並非所有市場都能持續成長。我們必須意識到，如果客戶擔心宏觀經濟因素，他們可能會變得更加保守，並說：“嘿，讓我先處理掉一些積壓訂單。”

So I think you're going to continue to see book-to-bills be getting more normalized in an environment like we have. But certainly, we have some markets where customers are concerned about supply chain volatility. And like we used to talk about in the industrial segment, we're still at a 1.16 book-to-bill, which is a very strong book-to-bill, and that means we're still building backlog.

所以我認為，在我們目前的環境下，訂單出貨比會繼續趨於正常化。當然，我們在某些​​市場的客戶確實擔心供應鏈的波動。就像我們以前在工業領域討論的那樣，我們的訂單出貨比仍然保持在1.16，這是一個非常強勁的訂單出貨比，這意味著我們仍在累積訂單。

[id="-1" name="Operator" />

[id="-1" name="操作員" />

Your next question comes from Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Samik Chatterjee。

This is MP on for Samik Chatterjee from JPMorgan. So I just wanted to ask regarding the order trends in industrial, like you're seeing some of your POs downgrading their expectations for the growth in this particular sector. Additionally, the global PMIs are also down relatively compared to the starting of the year. What exactly is driving like strong order growth for you in this particular sector, and as you said, that you see accelerating as well?

我是摩根大通的議員 Samik Chatterjee。我想問一下工業領域的訂單趨勢，例如您看到一些採購經理下調了對該領域成長的預期。此外，全球採購經理人指數 (PMI) 也比年初下降。究竟是什麼推動了該領域訂單的強勁成長？正如您所說，您認為訂單成長也在加速。

Yes. When I look at our -- thank you for the question. When we look at our Industrial business unit, it also comes into the backlog of our customers. If you look at our customers that are all the robot manufacturers of the world, certainly the factory automation, and you even go back to semi capacity be put in, electric vehicle battery capacity being put in, other automation programs being put in, they are the drivers of it. So you have to look at the capital spending, and the backlog of the projects continues to be very strong. And that's creating backlog for our customers of the world, whether they're in Asia, whether they're in Europe, whether they're here. And what's nice is we're very globally deployed in that business unit, and orders continue to be very strong as people are trying to make sure they can fulfill their backlog. And we've really positioned well in that space, and you've seen that outperformance consistently over the past 1.5 years.

是的。謝謝你的提問。說到工業業務部門，我注意到客戶的積壓訂單也與此有關。我們的客戶遍布全球，包括機器人製造商，當然還有工廠自動化，甚至包括半成品產能的投入、電動車電池產能的投入以及其他自動化項目的投入，這些都是推動業務成長的因素。所以，你必須關注資本支出，項目積壓訂單持續強勁。這為我們全球的客戶創造了積壓訂單，無論他們是在亞洲、歐洲或美國。值得慶幸的是，我們該業務部門的部署非常全球化，訂單持續強勁，因為客戶正在努力確保能夠完成積壓訂單。我們在該領域佔據了非常有利的地位，而且在過去一年半的時間裡，我們一直保持著優異的表現。

[id="-1" name="Operator" />

[id="-1" name="操作員" />

Your next question comes from Matt Sheerin with Stifel.

您的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Matt Sheerin。

Terrence, I was going to get your take on inventory picture at your customers. Obviously, with longer lead times, there is ordering and perhaps double ordering even of your products, which we don't typically see with interconnects. But are you getting a sense of any build, particularly in the industrial markets where you have a lot of distribution exposure? We're seeing lots of inventory at EMS and the OEMs. And at some point, that's all going to give and we're going to see a correction. And I'm just wondering, are you seeing that? Or are you expecting that at some point?

Terrence，我本來想了解您對客戶庫存狀況的看法。顯然，隨著交貨週期的延長，您的產品可能會出現訂購量增加，甚至出現重複訂購的情況，這在互連產品領域並不常見。但是，您是否感覺到庫存增加，尤其是在您分銷業務量很大的工業市場？我們看到 EMS 和 OEM 廠商的庫存量很大。到了一定時候，庫存都會減少，我們會看到市場出現調整。我想知道，您看到了這種情況嗎？或者您預計在某個時候會出現這種情況？

Well, I think the thing is, first off, being people have been trying to make sure you're not going to want to hold up manufacturing of an end product for a connector. If you're waiting for a semiconductor, people will want to make sure they have the interconnects with certainly the semiconductor being the brain, and we're a little bit more like the arms and the legs.

嗯，我認為首先，人們一直在努力確保不會因為一個連接器而耽誤最終產品的生產。如果你在等待半導體，人們會希望確保他們擁有互連器件，而半導體就像大腦，而我們更像是手臂和腿。

But when you look at it, and you take distribution to what you said, distribution inventory is still not back to where we would expect it to be. It's still probably 15 days light on a term perspective of where it was pre-COVID. So we continue to monitor that inventory position, and that's an important thing to watch to make sure that the distribution channel does not get heavy from a day's perspective. So feel good that they're still in a good spot.

但如果你仔細觀察，並根據你所說的分銷情況來看，分銷庫存仍未恢復到我們預期的水平。從長期來看，與新冠疫情之前的水準相比，庫存可能仍短缺15天。因此，我們會持續監控庫存狀況，這一點很重要，以確保分銷管道在一天內不會變得過載。所以，看到他們仍然處於良好狀態，我們感到很高興。

When you get into where our product goes everywhere in the world, we're not going to know every little pocket of inventory. But it's something that if lead times continue to get better, and I wouldn't tell you they have gotten better yet, they're stable, but they're not better, you would expect there might be a little bit of an air pocket, but we're not at that point yet.

當我們的產品銷往世界各地時，我們無法了解每個庫存點的情況。但如果交貨週期持續改善，情況又會如何呢？雖然現在還不能說已經改善了，但至少是穩定的，並沒有改善。你可能會預料到可能會出現一些庫存不足的情況，但我們還沒有達到那個程度。

[id="-1" name="Operator" />

[id="-1" name="操作員" />

Your next question comes from Christopher Glynn with Oppenheimer.

您的下一個問題來自奧本海默公司的克里斯托弗·格林。

I had a question about how you're viewing market share in the electric vehicle space? Curious if you're able to kind of cite or see share gain there. Or if the market is still too formative?

我有個問題想問，您如何看待電動車領域的市場佔有率？您能否舉例說明一下，或者說您認為電動車的市場份額是否會成長？或者說，這個市場是否還處於形成期？

No. When you look at that, and I think you have to start with, we have a very strong position already. And as we say, we're in essentially recording the planet already. So I think our market share, our strong position we already have that has been in combustion engine. As we bring the technology, and I know we shared content elements of how you look at an electric vehicle, it's about 2x what we have. But then you also carry over what we do on a low voltage architecture that when you add the high-voltage motors in it, basically is additive.

不。從這一點來看，我認為你必須先認識到，我們已經佔據了非常強大的地位。正如我們所說，我們基本上已經在記錄地球的動態了。所以我認為我們的市場份額，以及我們在內燃機領域已經佔據的強勢地位，都反映在內燃機領域。隨著我們引入這項技術，我知道我們之前分享過一些關於電動車的內容，它大約是我們現有技術的兩倍。此外，你還可以繼承我們在低壓架構上的經驗，當你在其中添加高壓馬達時，基本上就是附加價值。

So when you look at it from a market share, I feel very good about the programs we're winning. What's great is it's as global as our current position. We want to sit there and make sure we're globally positioned, and it's pretty similar to what we have and what we had in our historical market share.

所以，從市場佔有率來看，我對我們贏得的項目感到非常滿意。最棒的是，這些項目和我們目前的地位一樣全球化。我們希望穩固我們的全球地位，這與我們現在的市場份額以及歷史市場份額非常相似。

Your next question comes from Shreyas Patil with Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Shreyas Patil。

Just wanted to quickly understand how to think about the interplay between order activity and backlog. So for example, if you're seeing some segments like transportation now in a more normal book-to-bill but you also mentioned that the backlog is still growing in those segments, is the right way to think about that potentially the order activity would moderate as those customers try to work down that backlog? Just trying to understand how we should be interpreting those going forward.

只是想快速理解如何看待訂單活動和積壓訂單之間的相互作用。例如，如果您看到某些細分市場（例如運輸）的訂單出貨比較為正常，但您也提到這些細分市場的積壓訂單仍在增長，那麼正確的思考方式是，隨著這些客戶試圖減少積壓訂單，訂單活動可能會有所放緩嗎？只是想了解我們未來應該如何解讀這些因素。

No. When you look at it, book-to-bill of 1 basically means you're not building backlog. So I think the one thing when we look at book-to-bills, please remember there's 2 numbers in a book-to-bill equation: the order number and then obviously the revenue number. And you have to realize, we have brought up our output by the growth that we talked about, so the bill has also gone up.

不。訂單出貨比為1，基本上意味著你沒有積壓訂單。所以我認為，當我們查看訂單出貨比時，請記住，訂單出貨比公式中有兩個數字：訂單數量，當然還有收入數字。而且你必須意識到，我們之前提到的成長已經提高了產量，所以訂單出貨量也增加了。

But when you look at it similar to what we talked about in communications, if the backlog is so strong, you can have a book-to-bill below 1 because the customers feel they are scheduled out over a couple of quarters. Could be up to 3 quarters in our case, where they say, "Hey, guess what, I feel good where I'm primed in the system, and you could run below 1 a little bit." So they're just key factors of how it works, and I think you have to keep in the mindset. I'll go back to what I said today. When we have an average lead time of 6 to 12 weeks, let's say, we aren't somebody that has a backlog that goes out years. That is not our business. Our backlog typically is within the next 9 months.

但是，如果你從類似於我們在溝通中討論過的角度來看待這個問題，你會發現，如果積壓訂單非常多，訂單出貨比可能會低於1，因為客戶會覺得他們的訂單排在了幾個季度之後。在我們的情況下，這個數字可能高達3個季度，他們會說：「嘿，你猜怎麼著，我感覺系統已經準備好了，訂單出貨比可能會稍微低於1。」 所以，這些只是決定係統如何運作的關鍵因素，我認為你必須保持這種心態。我回到我今天說的。假設我們的平均交貨週期為6到12週，那麼我們不會像其他公司那樣積壓訂單長達數年。那不是我們的業務。我們的積壓訂單通常在未來9個月內完成。

Your next question comes from Jim Suva with Citigroup.

您的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Jim Suva。

I know it's just kind of an accounting thing with the extra reef. But I know that there's also year-end things, whether it be stock vesting, merit increases. But also in your fiscal Q4, a lot of the OEMs do production change over years and kind of close for annual vacation and switch over model years and such. So I know you gave some commentary in your slides on the Q4 impact. But I'm just wondering, is it more complicated than just adding one extra week of sales and EPS due to some of the things I mentioned? And importantly, though, for setting up expectations for Q1, I know it's early, but do we just remove that exact same amount in Q1? Or is it kind of nonlinear? And I expect that it's a lot more complicated than what people just may initially think, but I think it's important to people level set and don't get ahead of themselves for extrapolating that going forward. So any additional clarity around that on revenues and EPS would be great for the extra week.

我知道這只是一個會計問題，需要額外的資金。但我知道還有年終的事情，像是股票歸屬、績效加薪等等。而且，在你們的第四財季，許多原始設備製造商會逐年調整生產，例如休假、車型轉換等等。我知道你在幻燈片中對第四財季的影響做了一些評論。但我只是想知道，這是否比僅僅因為我提到的一些因素而增加一周的銷售額和每股收益更複雜？而且重要的是，對於設定第一財季的預期，我知道現在還為時過早，但我們是否應該在第一財季就移除相同的金額？還是這是一種非線性的？我預計這比人們最初想像的要複雜得多，但我認為重要的是讓人們保持冷靜，不要妄自揣測未來。因此，如果能在額外一周的財報中就收入和每股收益方面提供任何進一步的說明，那就太好了。

Thanks, Jim, and good to hear from you. I'll let Heath handle that.

謝謝，吉姆，很高興收到你的來信。我會讓希斯處理的。

Thanks, Terrence. Jim, I'm sure you remember that we went through this in the fall of 2016 as well, right, which is the last time we had the extra week. And so this is a convention that does happen every 5 to 6 years based on when we -- the true-up of our fiscal calendar, where we end up with that extra week.

謝謝，特倫斯。吉姆，我相信你還記得我們在2016年秋天也經歷過這種情況，對吧，那是我們最後一次獲得額外的一周。所以，這是一個慣例，每5到6年舉行一次，取決於我們財政日曆的最終日期，也就是我們獲得額外一週的時間。

So if you think about it, from a fiscal year perspective, operationally, nothing changes, right? So nothing changes relative to a cutover into our October, which will be the first month of FY '23. Nothing changes with employee schedules and everything else. It really is basically a mechanism that trues up the calendar every 5 to 6 years.

所以，從財年的角度來看，營運上沒有任何變化，對吧？所以，相對於切換到10月份（也就是2023財年的第一個月）來說，沒有任何變化。員工排班和其他一切都沒有任何變化。這實際上是每5到6年校準一次日曆的機制。

It does provide, as we did here. We gave our best guesstimate of what that extra week will provide, which is about $250 million in revenue and about $0.10 of EPS. What will happen and when we give our fourth quarter results and our Q1 guide here in about 90 days, we will tighten up that estimate. So we'll give you what -- we can calculate it more appropriately, more accurately at that time. And then obviously, as we move into the first quarter, first quarter, we'll be back to having 13 weeks, and we'll move forward with that way.

它確實能帶來收益，就像我們之前所做的那樣。我們對額外一週的收益給出了最佳估計，約為2.5億美元的收入和0.10美元的每股盈餘。具體情況如何？大約90天后，當我們公佈第四季度業績和第一季業績指引時，我們會進一步調整這個估計。屆時，我們能更準確、更適當地計算。當然，隨著第一季的到來，我們的季度週數將回到13週，我們將繼續以這個方式前進。

So from a Q4 to Q1 compare, there is an extra week in Q4 versus Q1. We're estimating that to be about $250 million and about $0.10 of EPS, but we'll tighten all that up and be very transparent as we close the books here in about 90 days. So I hope that answers your question, but it's some fun stuff we work through every 5 to 6 years with this fiscal calendar.

因此，從第四季與第一季的比較來看，第四季比第一季多了一周。我們估計這大約是2.5億美元，每股收益約為0.10美元，但我們會把所有數據都收緊，並在大約90天後結帳時保持高度透明。希望這能解答您的問題，但這確實是我們每5到6年就按照這個財歷處理一些有趣的事情。

Your next question comes from Steven Fox with Fox Advisors.

您的下一個問題來自 Fox Advisors 的 Steven Fox。

I heard all the comments on margins this morning. I was just wondering if you could dig a little deeper into the communications margins. I think you keep telling us not to expect the mid-20 margins to repeat themselves, but they keep repeating, so there must be something going on in terms of products or pricing or execution since you put up 26% and you're talking about pressure on appliance market. So any color there would be helpful.

我今天早上聽到了大家關於利潤率的評論。我只是想知道您能否更深入地談談通訊業務的利潤率。我記得您一直告訴我們，不要指望20%左右的利潤率會重複出現，但這個數字一直在重複，所以產品、定價或執行方面肯定有什麼問題，因為您提出了26%的利潤率，而且您還提到了家電市場的壓力。所以，任何細節都會有所幫助。

Thanks, Steve. This is Heath. Listen, I know the question -- in our stated business model, right, we've said that segment should be in the high teens operating margins. And I'm acutely aware that we've been running significantly higher than that, particularly over the past couple of years.

謝謝，史蒂夫。我是希思。聽著，我知道這個問題——在我們既定的商業模式中，我們說過該部門的營業利潤率應該在15%左右。但我清楚知道，我們的營業利潤率一直遠高於這個數字，尤其是在過去幾年。

I think what's important here is to step back a little bit and say this was a journey in this segment to get it to where it is today, right? There was a lot of -- if you go back several years, there was about $1 billion of consumer-related product that we walked away from, and then there was a tremendous amount of restructuring to get this business where it is today. And what that shows is when you get that operating footprint right and then you get these levels of volume that we're seeing out of both appliances as well as data and devices, we can kick out these kinds of margins.

我認為現在重要的是，稍微回顧一下，說我們在這個領域經歷了一段旅程，才走到今天這一步，對吧？回顧幾年前，我們放棄了約10億美元的消費相關產品，然後進行了大量的重組，才讓這項業務發展到今天的水平。這表明，如果你能掌控好營運佈局，然後像我們現在看到的家用電器、數據和設備那樣達到這樣的銷售水平，我們就能獲得這樣的利潤率。

So there's nothing artificial in these margins. We have been aggressive on price, as you would expect. And in some cases, we are able to pass through price in both industrial and in communications a bit more efficiently because a bigger chunk of those businesses go through channel partners. And those price increases can go on a little bit more rapidly and take effect more quickly versus transportation that is a renegotiation OEM by OEM.

所以這些利潤率並非人為設定。正如您所料，我們在價格方面一直很激進。在某些情況下，我們能夠更有效地將工業和通訊領域的價格傳導出去，因為這些業務中很大一部分是透過通路合作夥伴進行的。與需要逐一與OEM重新談判的運輸業務相比，這些價格上漲可以更快一些，也更迅速地見效。

So there is some price piece. There's no doubt about that, and we'll continue to keep our foot pressed down on those elements to help cover. We're not -- we're just trying to cover where we stand from an inflationary pressure environment. But when we do see appliance moderate, right, we've been running about $1 billion annual run rate appliances, and if that moderates down some element -- some amount, we do expect that to have a little bit of pressure on the margin front. That doesn't mean we see it collapsing, and we'll give more color as we're more comfortable with that here this fall. But right now, at these volume levels, this would be the margin would you would expect.

所以價格因素確實存在。這一點毋庸置疑，我們將繼續密切關注這些因素，以應對通膨壓力。我們只是試圖在通膨壓力環境下維持現狀。但當我們看到家電業務成長放緩時，對吧？我們每年營運的家電業務規模約為10億美元。如果這些因素有所下降，我們預計利潤率會略有下降。但這並不意味著利潤率會大幅下降，隨著我們對今年秋天的情況更加樂觀，我們會提供更多預測。但就目前而言，在目前的銷售水準下，利潤率應該達到您預期的水平。

Your next question comes from Joseph Spak with RBC Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的約瑟夫·斯帕克 (Joseph Spak)。

Can you give us some color on what your customers are thinking in Europe in light of the energy issues there? Like ironically, one of the things we've heard is in transportation and industrial, some of those players may try to produce as much as possible this quarter to get ahead of what they think might be potential larger issues later in the winter, I guess, as long as the supply chain allows them to do so. Are you seeing any evidence of that? And then related, I do think you have some facilities in Germany. So how directly impacted would you be by gas shortages?

鑑於歐洲的能源問題，能否透露一下貴公司客戶對此有何看法？諷刺的是，我們聽說在運輸和工業領域，一些企業可能會在本季度盡可能多地生產，以應對他們認為冬季晚些時候可能出現的更大問題，我想，只要供應鏈允許，他們就能做到。您看到這方面的證據了嗎？另外，我認為貴公司在德國確實有一些工廠。那麼，天然氣短缺會為貴公司帶來多大的直接影響呢？

Yes. Good question. And I would say this is real time, and we're staying close with our customers, so I would not say there is a one size fits all as they deal with it. So the key element for us is we got to stay close to our customers on it. We do have a team that's working it real time. And this is a real-time issue to say, hey, if output of our customers were impacted and we do have some factories in Europe primarily supporting the automotive industry, we would have impacts as well. So it's a real-time situation. And -- but I would not assume it's one size fits all across Europe.

是的，問得好。我想說，這是即時發生的，我們與客戶保持密切聯繫，所以我不會說在處理這個問題時存在一個放之四海而皆準的方案。所以對我們來說，關鍵在於我們必須與客戶保持密切聯繫。我們確實有一個團隊在即時處理這個問題。這是一個即時問題，如果我們客戶的產量受到影響，而且我們在歐洲確實有一些工廠主要支援汽車產業，我們也會受到影響。所以這是一個實時的情況。而且——但我不會認為整個歐洲都會出現一個放諸四海皆準的方案。

Your next question comes from Luke Junk with Baird.

您的下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Luke Junk。

Just hoping you could help us unpack the margin in industrial this quarter. It's a new high water mark if we look bigger picture, and there is a nice step-up sequentially as well. Last time we saw this kind of step-up was in the third quarter last year and that margin upside proved to be pretty sticky on a go-forward basis. So just hoping you could expand on what's going on under the surface in that business this quarter, especially as it pertains to the path of industrial margins from here?

希望您能幫我們分析本季工業業務的利潤率。從更宏觀的角度來看，這是一個新的高點，而且環比增長也相當可觀。上次我們看到這種成長是在去年第三季度，事實證明，這種利潤率的上升空間在未來相當持久。所以，希望您能詳細談談本季該業務的幕後情況，尤其是它與工業利潤率未來走勢的關係。

Sure. Thanks, Luke. Listen, we've been very public going back almost 5 years now on this march towards margin improvement in this segment, right? And it involves a lot of restructuring activity. We talked about at the time, this is going back when we started this journey of taking over 20 facilities off-line and consolidating those into lower-cost locations where we already had capabilities and capacity, and I would say we're 2/3 of the way through that at this point. Certainly, we did not anticipate COVID and some of the other in the bounce back and so forth that we've had to adjust the playbook a little bit on timing.

當然。謝謝，盧克。聽著，我們差不多五年前就開始公開宣布要提高這個部門的利潤率了，對吧？這涉及大量的重組活動。我們當時談到，這可以追溯到我們開始關閉20多家工廠，並將它們整合到我們已有產能和能力的低成本地區的時候。我想說，目前我們已經完成了三分之二的進度。當然，我們沒有預料到新冠疫情和其他一些經濟反彈等等，所以我們不得不在時間安排上稍微調整策略。

But the overall strategy is unchanged, and a lot of it is around rooftop consolidations and so forth. And we've been more aggressive in this segment with acquisitions, which also give opportunity to us to further rightsize and realize synergies by integrating those into existing facilities that we already have. So -- and most recently, the earning acquisition came in, and we see a real margin opportunity there within that business, which is in our industrial equipment portion of the overall segment.

但整體戰略沒有改變，其中很大一部分圍繞著屋頂加固等等。我們在這個領域更加積極地進行收購，這也讓我們有機會進一步優化規模，並透過將這些收購整合到我們現有的設施中來實現協同效應。所以——最近，我們完成了獲利性收購，我們看到了該業務中真正的利潤機會，也就是我們整個部門的工業設備部分。

Having said all that, there's still pieces of the segment that are underperforming from a margin perspective and maybe -- and largely, that's due to volume, right? Terrence talked about medical and our commercial air business, which is inside our aerospace and defense business unit. Those are far from getting back to normalized volume levels, and both of those opportunities avail opportunities for us to continue to see margin expansion in addition to some of the restructuring activities.

話雖如此，從利潤率的角度來看，我們這個細分市場仍有一些業務表現不佳，這或許很大程度上是因為銷量，對吧？特倫斯談到了醫療業務和商用航空業務，它們隸屬於我們的航空航太和國防業務部門。這些業務的銷售遠未恢復到正常的水平，而這兩個機會都為我們提供了繼續提升利潤率的機會，此外還有一些重組活動。

So hey, we're pleased with the results this quarter. In any 1 quarter, there could be noise that swings your margins a point or so either direction. But we're pleased with the results, we're pleased with the trajectory of where the cost structure is in this business. Obviously, as I mentioned in the previous question, we're able to get more pricing in this segment than we have in transportation. So there's a lot of good things going here. And with the recovery of medical and commercial air, we feel like there's still legs to go.

所以，我們對本季的業績很滿意。任何一個季度，都可能存在一些影響利潤率的因素。但我們對業績感到滿意，對本業務成本結構的走勢也感到滿意。顯然，正如我在上一個問題中提到的，我們在這個領域能夠獲得比運輸領域更高的定價。所以，這裡有很多好事正在發生。隨著醫療和商用航空的復甦，我們覺得未來還有很長的路要走。

Your next question comes from Nikolay Todorov with Longbow Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Longbow Research 的 Nikolay Todorov。

Two qualification questions for me. One is in auto, you posted 9% outgrowth versus production. But I just wonder, was there any inventory build in the June quarter last year that would suggest that your outgrowth was even stronger? And then the second question, a clarification. I think it was asked. But what is the FX EPS impact sequentially? I think I heard a revenue impact, $70 million to $75 million sequentially. But what is the FX, the EPS impact sequentially?

我有兩個資格問題。一個是關於汽車業務的，你們公佈的產量年增了9%。但我想知道，去年第二季是否有庫存增加，這顯示你們的成長甚至更強勁？第二個問題需要澄清。我記得有人問過。但外匯對每股盈餘的影響較上季是多少？我聽說收入環比增長了7000萬到7500萬美元。但外匯對每股盈餘的影響較上季呢？

So I'm going to let Heath take the second part, and I'll talk about the first part.

因此我將讓希斯負責第二部分，而我將討論第一部分。

Yes. Nikolay, I apologize if we didn't provide that, the sequential impact we are on FX, we are estimating to be it's around $70 million revenue and about $0.05 of EPS sequentially.

是的。尼古拉，如果我們沒有提供這一點，我很抱歉。我們估計，我們對外匯業務的環比影響約為7000萬美元的收入，環比每股收益約為0.05美元。

And then on the outperformance, quarter-on-quarter, I'm always going to caution you, be careful on trying to come up with inventory build in the quarter, especially with the volatility we have. So when you look at it, I don't think there was a meaningful impact that you should take that out performance and add or subtract to it.

關於季度環比的優異表現，我始終要提醒大家，在試圖增加本季庫存時要謹慎，尤其是在當前市場波動的情況下。所以，從整體來看，我認為不應該對季度環比表現進行任何有意義的調整或增加或減少。

Your next question comes from William Stein with Truist Securities.

您的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 William Stein。

I apologize if this might have already been asked. But specifically in the transportation end market, you have a target of 20% EBIT margins. And I understand that right now we're going through this well-documented and well-discussed, on this call, inflationary effects that there's a timing effect of passing that on. Do you all have an expectation as to when you might approach that 20% level again? Is that like something we should think of in the next year or 2? Or is that now feeling longer out in time?

抱歉，這個問題可能已經有人問過了。具體到運輸終端市場，你們的目標是息稅前利潤率達到20%。我知道，我們現在正在討論通膨的影響，這個問題在電話會議上已經得到充分證實和討論，通膨的影響會隨著時間的推移而顯現。你們對何時能再次達到20%的水準有什麼預期嗎？是應該在未來一兩年內考慮嗎？還是現在感覺還遙不可及？

Thanks for the question. I'm not going to back through. Like you said, we've discussed a lot of things on the call here relative to the current situation with the -- our ability to get priced relative to inflationary pressures and the pressure that, that's putting on the business. So as that equation morphs over the next year or so, we'll see how that plays out.

謝謝你的提問。我不想再重複之前的問題了。就像你說的，我們在電話會議上討論了很多與當前情況相關的問題——我們根據通膨壓力以及通膨給業務帶來的壓力進行定價的能力。所以，隨著未來一年左右這個等式的變化，我們將拭​​目以待。

The other thing was, if you recall, a couple of years ago, we did start, particularly in our Western European footprint for transportation of taking -- of restructuring a couple of locations, and that's well underway. In some cases, we'll see support coming out of those actions here as we get into next year.

另外，如果你還記得的話，幾年前我們確實開始重組一些地點，尤其是在我們西歐的運輸業務，目前進展順利。在某些情況下，到明年，我們將看到這些行動帶來支持。

But the other thing to remember is we've talked about in our business model, right, that 20% target for transportation. That never contemplated auto production being down in the 76 million, 77 million units So we start to see some support there, where we're getting closer to 21-plus million units a quarter, I think that is a better opportunity for us to capitalize on not just our content growth but also the absolute volume production that we're set up to support. So I think that would have the bigger impact versus most of the other variables.

但還有一點要記住，我們在商業模式中討論過交通運輸20%的目標。這從未考慮過汽車產量會下降到7600萬到7700萬輛。所以我們開始看到一些支撐，我們每季的產量接近2100萬輛。我認為這對我們來說是一個更好的機會，不僅可以利用我們內容的成長，還可以利用我們設定的絕對產量。所以我認為，與大多數其他變數相比，這將產生更大的影響。

Okay. Thank you, Will. I want to thank everybody for joining our call today. If you have further questions, please contact Investor Relations at TE. Thank you, and have a nice day.

好的。謝謝你，威爾。感謝大家今天參加我們的電話會議。如果您還有其他問題，請聯絡 TE 的投資者關係部門。謝謝大家，祝您有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, today's conference call will be available for replay beginning at 11:30 a.m. Eastern Time today July 27 on the Investor Relations portion of TE Connectivity's website. That will conclude the conference for today.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議將於美國東部時間7月27日上午11:30在TE Con​​nectivity網站的投資者關係板塊提供重播。今天的電話會議到此結束。