Teck Resources Ltd (TECK) 2018 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to Teck Resources' Q1 2018 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) This conference call is being recorded on Tuesday, April 24, 2018.

女士們先生們，謝謝你們的支持。歡迎參加 Teck Resources 2018 年第一季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）本次電話會議於 2018 年 4 月 24 日星期二錄製。

I would now like to turn the conference call over to Fraser Phillips, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Strategic Analysis. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在想將電話會議轉交給投資者關係和策略分析高級副總裁弗雷澤·菲利普斯 (Fraser Phillips)。請繼續，先生。

Thanks very much, Brenda. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for Teck's First Quarter 2018 Results Conference Call.

非常感謝，布倫達。大家早安，感謝您參加泰克資源 2018 年第一季業績電話會議。

Before we begin, I'd like to draw your attention to the forward-looking information on Slide 2. This presentation contains forward-looking statements regarding our business. However, various risks and uncertainties may cause actual results to vary. Teck does not assume the obligation to update any forward-looking statement.

在開始之前，我想提請您注意投影片 2 上的前瞻性資訊。然而，各種風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果有所不同。泰克資源不承擔更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over Don Lindsay, our President and CEO.

說到這裡，我想把電話轉給我們的總裁兼執行長唐林賽 (Don Lindsay)。

Thank you, Fraser, and good morning, everyone. I will begin on Slide 3 with some highlights from our first quarter, followed by Ron Millos, our CFO, who will provide additional color on our financial results. We'll then conclude with a Q&A session, where Ron and I and various additional members of our senior management team would be happy to answer any questions.

謝謝弗雷澤，大家早安。我將從幻燈片 3 開始介紹第一季的一些亮點，然後我們的財務長 Ron Millos 將為我們的財務表現提供更多資訊。然後，我們將以問答環節結束，羅恩和我以及我們高階管理團隊的其他成員將很樂意回答任何問題。

But before we get into the highlights on the quarter, I would like to note, that very sadly, there was a tragic incident at our Fording River operation on April 9, resulting in the death of an employee of a contract company. We extend our deepest sympathies to the employee's family and friends and colleagues, and a full investigation into this incident is underway to ensure we learn everything we can in order to prevent a recurrence.

但在我們進入本季度的亮點之前，我想指出，非常遺憾的是，4 月 9 日，我們的福丁河工廠發生了一起悲慘事件，導致一家合約公司的一名員工死亡。我們向該員工的家人、朋友和同事致以最深切的同情，目前正在對這一事件進行全面調查，以確保我們了解一切情況，以防止再次發生。

Turning now to our Q1 results. Prices for our key commodities remained strong in Q1, resulting in another good quarter for us. Note that copper prices reached a 4-year high in January at $3.27 per pound, and zinc prices reached a 10-year high in February at USD 1.64 per pound.

現在轉向我們的第一季業績。我們的主要商品價格在第一季保持強勁，為我們帶來了另一個良好的季度。請注意，銅價在 1 月達到 4 年高點，達到每磅 3.27 美元，鋅價在 2 月達到 10 年高點，達到每磅 1.64 美元。

Sales volumes for all of our principal products increased from a year ago, particularly copper sales, which reflected higher-than-expected grades at Highland Valley. Overall, our operations performed well in Q1, and we're pleased that Fort Hills achieved first oil on January 27 and is ramping up to full capacity as expected. In fact, the plant's startup has exceeded expectations with respectable production volumes and product quality, and we also achieved first sales in Q1.

我們所有主要產品的銷量均較上年同期有所增加，尤其是銅銷量，這反映了 Highland Valley 的品味高於預期。總體而言，我們的營運在第一季表現良好，我們很高興 Fort Hills 於 1 月 27 日獲得了第一批石油，並且正在按預期達到滿載生產。事實上，工廠的啟動已經超出了預期，產量和產品品質都可觀，而且我們還在第一季實現了首次銷售。

We continue to return cash to shareholders, repurchasing $58 million of Class B shares to complete the remainder of our $230 million share buyback. We also paid our regular base quarterly dividend of $0.05 per share, which totaled $29 million.

我們繼續向股東返還現金，回購 5,800 萬美元的 B 類股票，以完成 2.3 億美元股票回購的剩餘部分。我們還支付了每股 0.05 美元的定期基本季度股息，總計 2,900 萬美元。

A pre-feasibility study for NuevaUnión was completed in Q1, and we have included a summary of the results in our press release, and I'll come back to this shortly. In April, we acquired an additional 13.5% indirect interest in the QB2 project through the purchase of IMSA, our minority partner. This simplifies the ownership and the capital structure of QB2 and gives us flexibility on financing options for the project. And we now have a 90% equity interest and a 100% funding interest in QB2.

NuevaUnión 的預可行性研究已於第一季完成，我們已在新聞稿中包含了結果摘要，我很快就會回來討論這一點。 4月份，我們透過收購少數合作夥伴IMSA，獲得了QB2專案額外13.5%的間接權益。這簡化了 QB2 的所有權和資本結構，並為我們提供了專案融資選擇的靈活性。我們現在擁有QB2 90%的股權和100%的融資權益。

The board will decide on our ultimate ownership level in the QB2 project in due course. There is no fixed deadline for that decision. And in principle, we could commence construction before seeking a partner. In the meantime, we are continuing to build cash on our balance sheet and to progress engineering in preparation for a sanctioned decision, reducing both funding and execution risk.

董事會將在適當的時候決定我們在 QB2 專案中的最終所有權水準。該決定沒有固定的期限。原則上，我們可以在尋找合作夥伴之前開始建造。同時，我們將繼續在資產負債表上增加現金，並推動工程設計，為核准的決策做準備，從而降低融資和執行風險。

Turning to our financial results for Q1 on Slide 4. Revenues were $3.1 billion, and gross profit before depreciation and amortization was

轉向投影片 4 上第一季的財務表現。

$1.7 billion. After adjusting for unusual items, adjusted EBITDA was $1.6 billion. Bottom line adjustable -- adjusted profit attributable to shareholders was $753 million or $1.31 per share, and that's a decent increase from $655 million or $1.13 per share in the same quarter last year. Details of the quarter's earning adjustments are on Slide 5. And as you can see, they were minimal in Q1 2018.

17億美元。調整異常項目後，調整後 EBITDA 為 16 億美元。底線可調整－調整後股東應占利潤為 7.53 億美元，即每股 1.31 美元，比去年同期的 6.55 億美元，即每股 1.13 美元有相當大的增長。本季獲利調整的詳細資訊請參閱投影片 5。

I'll move on to Slide 6, where we'll run through the highlights of the steelmaking coal business unit. We continue to experience logistical issues at Westshore Terminals, particularly the lack of reliability and consistency in vessel loading and the unloading of Teck trains. As a result, sales volumes were lower than expected in Q1.

我將轉到第 6 張投影片，我們將在此介紹煉鋼煤炭業務部門的亮點。我們在西岸碼頭繼續遇到物流問題，特別是泰克列車的船舶裝卸缺乏可靠性和一致性。因此，第一季的銷售量低於預期。

Importantly, demand remains very strong. We had orders from customers in place to comfortably exceed our original sales guidance range of 6.3 million to 6.5 million tonnes. Production volumes were also affected by the ongoing poor performance at Westshore, as clean coal stockpiles at mines built up to levels that forced some plants to idle due to a lack of storage capacity.

重要的是，需求仍然非常強勁。我們收到的客戶訂單輕鬆超出了我們最初 630 萬噸至 650 萬噸的銷售指引範圍。產量也受到西海岸持續不佳表現的影響，因為礦井的潔淨煤庫存增加到了一定水平，迫使一些工廠因缺乏儲存能力而停產。

In addition, operating costs were negatively impacted by an increase in rail fuel surcharges and additional demerge costs that were primarily attributable to the issues at Westshore. We are working closely with all of our logistic suppliers to address these issues. We did return to a more typical product mix in Q1. However, our average realized price reflects what was a record spread between hard coking coal prices and lower-grade products.

此外，鐵路燃油附加費增加和主要由於西岸問題造成的額外分拆成本也對營運成本產生了負面影響。我們正在與所有物流供應商密切合作來解決這些問題。我們確實在第一季回歸了更典型的產品組合。然而，我們的平均實現價格反映了硬焦煤價格與低等級產品之間創紀錄的價差。

Looking forward to Q2, steelmaking coal sales are expected to be around 6.7 million tonnes, subject to performance of our logistics chain. We are accelerating planned upgrades to the Neptune Bulk Terminals facility, and now expect 2018 spending of approximately $120 million. The upgrade program includes an additional approximately $220 million to be spent in 2019 and 2020. Final board approval for the project is expected later in the second quarter. This investment aims to secure a long-term, reliable and globally competitive supply chain solution for our steelmaking coal business.

展望二季度，煉鋼煤銷售量預計在670萬噸左右，視物流鍊錶現而定。我們正在加快 Neptune 散貨碼頭設施的升級計劃，目前預計 2018 年支出約為 1.2 億美元。升級計畫包括 2019 年和 2020 年額外支出約 2.2 億美元。這項投資旨在為我們的煉鋼煤炭業務提供長期、可靠且具有全球競爭力的供應鏈解決方案。

Before moving on, I'd like to emphasize again, as I did at our recent Investor and Analyst Day, the outperformance of steelmaking coal prices relative to expectations and the significant gap between what the equity market is assuming and the historical average steelmaking coal prices and the cash that we have actually received. Over the past 18 months, steelmaking coal prices have exceeded market expectations, and they continue to do so.

在繼續之前，我想再次強調，就像我在最近的投資者和分析師日上所做的那樣，煉鋼煤炭價格相對於預期的表現優於預期，以及股市假設與歷史平均煉鋼煤炭價格之間的巨大差距以及我們實際收到的現金。過去18個月，煉鋼煤炭價格超出市場預期，並將持續超越市場預期。

The current spot price, while under pressure at the moment, over the last 10 years, has averaged $197 per tonne on an inflation-adjusted basis. And this compares to long-term prices in the range of 120 to 140 that many market participants are still assuming. At current spot prices, we are actually receiving around CAD 230 per tonne in cash.

目前的現貨價格雖然目前面臨壓力，但在過去 10 年中，經通膨調整後的平均價格為每噸 197 美元。相比之下，許多市場參與者仍然認為長期價格在 120 至 140 之間。以目前的現貨價格，我們實際上每噸收到約 230 加元的現金。

2 recent transactions involving steelmaking coal assets provide more evidence of the gap. The prices paid imply valuations that are materially above current public market valuations, and reports suggest that these transactions assume long-term prices of USD 150 to USD 175 per tonne, which is approaching the average of the last 10 years.

2 最近涉及煉鋼煤炭資產的交易提供了更多的缺口證據。支付的價格意味著估值大大高於當前公開市場估值，報告顯示，這些交易假設的長期價格為每噸 150 美元至 175 美元，接近過去 10 年的平均水平。

On Slide 7, we've summarized our Zinc business unit results. And as a reminder, Antamina Zinc-related financial results are reported in our Copper business unit. In Q1, contained zinc sales at Red Dog were slightly ahead of our guidance and are indicative of the ongoing tightness in the zinc concentrate market. Red Dog production was negatively affected by severe winter weather in Q1, but plans are in place to recover the shortfall in the remainder of the year.

在投影片 7 中，我們總結了鋅業務部門的表現。提醒一下，與 Antamina 鋅相關的財務業績在我們的銅業務部門中報告。第一季度，Red Dog 的鋅銷售量略高於我們的指引，顯示鋅精礦市場持續緊張。紅狗產量受到第一季嚴冬天氣的負面影響，但已製定計劃在今年剩餘時間內彌補缺口。

Red Dog's unit cash costs after byproduct credits were above our annual guidance, consistent with that normal seasonality. Overall, gross profit before depreciation and amortization was up 42% or up $87 million from Q1 2017. And looking forward to Q2, we expect Red Dog contained Zinc sales to be around 80,000 tonnes.

扣除副產品信用後，紅狗的單位現金成本高於我們的年度指導，與正常的季節性一致。整體而言，折舊及攤銷前毛利較 2017 年第一季成長 42%，即 8,700 萬美元。

Our Copper business unit results are summarized on Slide 8. Overall, in Q1, gross profit before depreciation and amortization was up $220 million from the same quarter last year, reflecting higher prices and volumes and lower costs. Our average realized price was up USD 0.49 per pound in the same period.

我們的銅業務部門業績總結在投影片 8 中。同期，我們的平均實現價格每磅上漲 0.49 美元。

Higher-than-expected grades at Highland Valley persisted through the first quarter and contributed to higher production and to higher sales and lower unit costs. We continue to expect higher annual average grades and production in 2018 versus 2017, but we do not expect the high grades in Q1 to be repeated in the remainder of the year.

Highland Valley 的品級在第一季持續高於預期，有助於提高產量、提高銷售量和降低單位成本。我們仍預期 2018 年的年平均品位和產量將高於 2017 年，但我們預計今年剩餘時間不會重複第一季的高品位。

Net cash costs after byproducts were down USD 0.40 per pound from Q1 of last year, helped by strong cash credits for byproducts. As I mentioned earlier, we acquired an additional 13.5% indirect interest in the QB2 project in April. We continue to expect EIA approval in the second quarter and a potential sanctioning decision in the second half of 2018. And in the meantime, we are advancing execution and operational readiness on the project, and detailed engineering is now over 60% complete.

由於採用副產品強勁的現金信貸，扣除副產品後的淨現金成本比去年第一季每磅下降了 0.40 美元。正如我之前提到的，我們在 4 月額外間接收購了 QB2 專案 13.5% 的權益。我們繼續預計 EIA 將在第二季度獲得批准，並可能在 2018 年下半年做出批准決定。

Please note that we have updated our CapEx guidance for QB2 from approximately USD 100 million for the 4 months from January to April to approximately USD 250 million for the 9 months, from January through September.

請注意，我們已將 QB2 的資本支出指引從 1 月至 4 月 4 個月的約 1 億美元更新為 1 月至 9 月 9 個月的約 2.5 億美元。

Our Energy business unit results are summarized on Slide 9. As I mentioned earlier, Fort Hills achieved first oil on January 27, and the plant startup has exceeded expectations with respect to both production volumes and product quality. The first of 3 trains from secondary extraction has achieved production rates significantly above the design production rate for a single train. The second train started up on March 23.

我們的能源業務部門的表現總結在幻燈片 9 中。二次提取的 3 列列車中的第一列的生產率明顯高於單列列車的設計生產率。 3月23日，第二班列車啟動。

By the end of March, Fort Hills was producing over 100,000 barrels per day of PFT bitumen. Our share of Fort Hills first quarter production was 1.1 million barrels, including froth used for commissioning. We also achieved first sales in Q1, and downstream logistics have performed as expected. Looking forward, we expect to reach commercial production in Q2 and full production by year-end or before.

截至 3 月底，Fort Hills 每天生產超過 10 萬桶 PFT 瀝青。我們在福特山第一季的產量份額為 110 萬桶，其中包括用於調試的泡沫。一季我們也實現了首銷，下游物流也符合預期。展望未來，我們預計將在第二季實現商業化生產，並在年底或更早之前實現全面投產。

And before I turn it over Ron, I would like to spend a couple of minutes on NuevaUnión's pre-feasibility study, which was completed with our 50% partner, Goldcorp, in Q1. The pre-feasibility study incorporates key design changes to improve project economics in a response to community and indigenous people's input. The new design has reduced environmental footprint, infrastructure requirements and energy and water use. It's -- it plans for the use of desalinated water during operations to protect fresh water resources, and we also plan to relocate the tailings facility to the Relincho site in response to feedback from local communities.

在我把它交給羅恩之前，我想花幾分鐘討論 NuevaUnión 的預可行性研究，該研究是與我們持股 50% 的合作夥伴 Goldcorp 在第一季完成的。預可行性研究納入了關鍵的設計變更，以回應社區和原住民的意見，提高專案的經濟效益。新設計減少了環境足跡、基礎設施需求以及能源和水的使用。它計劃在運營期間使用淡化水來保護淡水資源，我們還計劃根據當地社區的反饋將尾礦設施搬遷到 Relincho 場地。

We've extended mine life from 32 to 36 years, excluding -- that's excluding 205 million tonnes of deferred resources contained within the current pit designs, and it also has significant further resource expansion potential and project-optimization opportunities. The pre-feas contemplates a phased development approach that reduces initial capital investment and execution risk. And in Phase 1, we will mine the higher-grade portions of Relincho. This will allow the project to help fund the link to La Fortuna in Phase 2, which will also focus on higher-grade areas, providing significant cash flows in the early years of this phase.

我們已將礦山壽命從 32 年延長至 36 年，不包括目前礦井設計中包含的 2.05 億噸遞延資源，而且它還具有進一步擴大資源的巨大潛力和專案優化機會。預可行性研究考慮了一種分階段的開發方法，以減少初始資本投資和執行風險。在第一階段，我們將開採 Relincho 的較高品位部分。這將使該項目能夠為第二階段與拉福圖納的連接提供資金，該項目也將重點關注較高等級的地區，從而在該階段的最初幾年提供大量現金流。

And as a result, average annual production is estimated to be 224,000 tonnes of copper, 269,000 ounces of gold and 1,700 tonnes of molybdenum and concentrate for the first full 5 years of mine life. That's approximately 283,000 tonnes per year of copper equivalent production over the first full 5 years of mine life.

因此，在礦山壽命的前 5 年裡，預計平均年產量為 224,000 噸銅、269,000 盎司黃金和 1,700 噸鉬及精礦。這意味著在礦山壽命的前 5 年裡，每年的銅當量產量約為 283,000 噸。

C1 cash costs are expected to be low in the first phases of development. Average C1 cash costs are estimated to be $0.71 per pound of payable copper for the first full 5 years of production, helped by high initial gold and copper grades at La Fortuna.

在開發的第一階段，C1 現金成本預計較低。由於 La Fortuna 的高初始金和銅品位，在前 5 年的生產中，平均 C1 現金成本預計為每磅應付銅 0.71 美元。

The initial capital cost for Phase 1 is estimated to be USD 3.4 billion to USD 3.5 billion on a 100% basis, excluding working capital and interest during construction. So overall, NuevaUnión is a long-life asset that can operate through multiple price cycles and should be a core part of our portfolio sometime in the future.

第一期工程的初始資本成本以100%計算預計為34億美元至35億美元，不包括營運資金和建設期間的利息。因此，總體而言，NuevaUnión 是一種長期資產，可以在多個價格週期中運行，並且應該在未來某個時候成為我們投資組合的核心部分。

And with that, I will pass it over to Ron for some comments on the financial side.

接下來，我將把它轉給羅恩，徵求他對財務方面的一些評論。

Thanks, Don. I'll start with liquidity on Slide 9 (sic) [11] where we currently have approximately $5.1 billion in liquidity, and that includes $1.3 billion in cash and our undrawn USD 3 billion committed credit facility. We also expect to receive an additional $1.2 billion in cash proceeds from the Waneta transaction, which is progressing and is expected to close in the third quarter of this year.

謝謝，唐。我將從投影片 9（原文如此）[11] 的流動性開始，我們目前擁有約 51 億美元的流動性，其中包括 13 億美元的現金和我們未提取的 30 億美元承諾信貸額度。我們還預計將從 Waneta 交易中額外獲得 12 億美元現金收益，該交易正在進行中，預計將於今年第三季完成。

We also only have $220 million of debt maturities prior to 2022. And including the Waneta transaction, our strong credit metrics compare favorably to our diversified and North American peers on a pro forma basis. And you may have seen on April 18, Moody's upgraded our credit rating one notch to B double -- Ba1 with a stable outlook. So all 3 of the major rating agencies now have us one notch below investment grade.

我們在 2022 年之前只有 2.2 億美元的債務到期。您可能已經看到，4 月 18 日，穆迪將我們的信用評級上調一級至 B 雙級——Ba1，展望穩定。因此，三大評級機構現在都將我們的評級比投資等級低一級。

Moving forward to Slide 12. As we've outlined on Slide 12, we have a strong record of returns to shareholders with $4.1 billion in dividends and $1.2 billion in share buybacks since 2003. And approximately 35% of our free cash flow has been returned to shareholders over the past 15 years through the dividends and the buybacks.

轉向幻燈片12。的自由現金流已被返還過去15年透過股利和回購向股東回報。

And in the first quarter, we spent $58 million completing the $230 million of share buybacks that was authorized by our board in November last year and we also paid our regular quarterly dividend of $0.05 per share. And on an annualized basis, our regular base dividend is $0.20 per share, and our board is expected to consider a supplemental dividend in the fourth quarter of each year.

在第一季度，我們花了 5,800 萬美元完成了去年 11 月董事會授權的 2.3 億美元的股票回購，我們也支付了每股 0.05 美元的定期季度股息。按年化計算，我們的定期基本股利為每股 0.20 美元，預計我們的董事會將在每年第四季考慮補充股利。

On Slide 13, I've summarized the changes in cash. During the quarter, we generated $1.1 billion in cash flow from operations. We spent $460 million on capital projects, including Fort Hills. Capitalized stripping costs were $197 million, and we paid $129 million in interest and finance charges. And as I just mentioned, we repurchased $58 million in Class B shares, and that completed the buyback that we announced in Q4 last year.

在投影片 13 上，我總結了現金的變動。本季度，我們的營運現金流達到 11 億美元。我們在包括福特山在內的資本項目上花費了 4.6 億美元。資本化剝離成本為 1.97 億美元，我們支付了 1.29 億美元的利息和財務費用。正如我剛才提到的，我們回購了 5,800 萬美元的 B 類股票，這完成了我們去年第四季宣布的回購。

We also repaid USD 22 million on our 2.5% notes that matured in February. And in addition, we paid out $29 million for the regular quarterly based dividend of $0.05 per share. And after these and other minor items, we ended the quarter with cash and short-term investments of around $1.2 billion.

我們也償還了 2 月到期的 2.5% 票據 2,200 萬美元。此外，我們還支付了 2900 萬美元，用於每股 0.05 美元的定期季度股息。扣除這些和其他小型專案後，本季末我們的現金和短期投資約為 12 億美元。

And with that, I'll turn it back to Don for his closing comments.

說到這裡，我將把它轉回給唐，讓他發表結束語。

Thanks, Ron. 2018 and 2019 promise to be exciting times for Teck. We have a number of catalysts or valuation milestones that are coming over the next 24 months, and these are detailed on Slide 14. We have completed the pre-feasibility study for NuevaUnión in Q1 and have now published a summary of those results.

謝謝，羅恩。 2018 年和 2019 年對泰克來說將是激動人心的一年。我們在未來 24 個月內將出現許多催化劑或估值里程碑，這些在投影片 14 中有詳細介紹。

The next key valuation milestones are as follows: First, the startup of Train 3, and secondary extraction at Fort Hills, and hitting commercial production in Q2. We expect full production at Fort Hills by the end of the year, if not before. We then anticipate receiving the QB2 permit in this quarter and sanctioning could occur in the second half of 2018. We expect to close the Waneta Dam sale and receive the initial $1.2 billion in cash in Q3. And in Q4, we aim to complete the feasibility study at Zafranal in Peru and submit the SEIA. So we have lots to look forward to for the balance of this year.

下一個關鍵估值里程碑如下：首先，3號線啟動，在福特山進行二次開採，並在第二季度實現商業生產。我們預計福特山工廠將在今年年底前全面投產（如果不是更早的話）。然後，我們預計將在本季度獲得 QB2 許可證，制裁可能會在 2018 年下半年進行。第四季度，我們的目標是完成秘魯 Zafranal 的可行性研究並提交 SEIA。因此，我們對今年剩下的時間有很多期待。

And finally, to close, I would like to wrap up with our value proposition that is shown on Slide 5. Teck remains focused on strong execution. We have premier operating assets, a proven track record of execution, and we are enhancing profitability at our operations.

最後，我想總結投影片 5 中顯示的我們的價值主張。我們擁有一流的營運資產、良好的執行記錄，並且我們正在提高營運獲利能力。

We have a solid financial position with significant liquidity and strong operating cash flow. We are on the right commodities at the right time. Our approach to capital allocation balances, returning capital to shareholders and capital spending with prudent balance sheet management. Overall, we are focused on generating shareholder value, and we believe that Teck offers a compelling value proposition to investors.

我們擁有穩健的財務狀況、充足的流動性和強勁的營運現金流。我們在正確的時間推出了正確的商品。我們透過審慎的資產負債表管理來實現資本配置平衡、向股東返還資本和資本支出的方法。整體而言，我們專注於創造股東價值，我們相信泰克資源為投資者提供了令人信服的價值主張。

And with that, we would be happy to answer your questions. And please note that some of our management team members are calling in from different locations, so there may be a brief pause after you ask your question while we sort out who's where. Back to you, operator.

因此，我們很樂意回答您的問題。請注意，我們的一些管理團隊成員從不同的地點打電話，因此在您提出問題後，我們可能會短暫暫停，以便我們確定誰在哪裡。回到你身邊，操作員。

(Operator Instructions) The first question is from Lucas Pipes of B. Riley FBR.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自 B. Riley FBR 的 Lucas Pipes。

Ted Beachley here for Lucas Pipes. My first question is, how do you guys expect coal production cost will progress over the course of 2018?

特德·比奇利 (Ted Beachley) 為盧卡斯·派普斯 (Lucas Pipes) 拍攝。我的第一個問題是，你們預計2018年煤炭生產成本將如何發展？

Okay. For that, I'll turn it to Robin Sheremeta.

好的。為此，我將把它交給 Robin Sheremeta。

Yes. Well, the costs, and I discussed this at the Investors Conference, they're going to be roughly in line with our guidance. So a little higher than last year, certainly with the higher strip ratio, slightly longer haul distance and some of the maintenance costs we had talked about.

是的。嗯，成本，我在投資者大會上討論過這個問題，它們將大致符合我們的指導。因此，比去年略高，當然是由於更高的剝離率、稍長的運輸距離以及我們討論過的一些維護成本。

So pretty flat through the year though. We're off maybe to a little slower Q1, so looking forward to roughly the same costs through to the end of the year.

不過全年表現相當平淡。我們第一季的速度可能會慢一些，因此預計到今年年底成本大致相同。

Okay. Great. And can you give us any more detail on why met cost realizations were $207 in the first quarter, and what may have contributed to the lower realizations?

好的。偉大的。您能否更詳細地說明為什麼第一季的實現成本為 207 美元，以及是什麼原因導致實現成本較低？

Over to Réal Foley.

轉到皇家弗利。

Thanks, Ted. So as we mentioned at the Investors Day, the main reason is the record spreads that we've seen between the high-quality hard coking coal and the other lower-grade products. So for instance, if you look at hard coking coal versus semihard, that spread was around $50 in Q1 compared to around $10, historical.

謝謝，泰德。正如我們在投資者日所提到的，主要原因是我們看到優質硬焦煤與其他低品位產品之間的創紀錄價差。舉例來說，如果你看看硬焦煤和半硬焦煤，第一季的價差約為 50 美元，而歷史上的價差約為 10 美元。

And if you compare the high-grade hard coking coal to the semisoft, the spread was around $110 versus around $30, historical. So if the spreads would have been comparable to historical, we would have achieved similar realized price as our historical levels.

如果將高品位硬焦煤與半軟焦煤進行比較，價差約為 110 美元對 30 美元左右，這是歷史性的。因此，如果利差與歷史水準相當，我們就會實現與歷史水準相似的實際價格。

The next question is from Curt Woodworth of Crédit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的科特·伍德沃斯。

I was wondering if you can discuss the, I guess, consistency of your volume for coking coal into China and how much of that would be baseload or sort of visible on a quarterly basis? I just ask because when you look at the import data, it's fairly consistent quarter-to-quarter, despite fairly wide variance in the arb.

我想知道您是否可以討論一下您進入中國的煉焦煤數量的一致性，以及其中有多少是基本負荷或按季度可見的？我之所以這麼問，是因為當你查看進口數據時，儘管套利差異相當大，但季度與季度的數據相當一致。

Sorry, we just missed the last part of the question.

抱歉，我們剛剛錯過了問題的最後一部分。

So the question is consistency or visibility of your coking coal volume into China and how affected, I guess, is the demand you see for that in relationship to the arbitrage.

因此，問題在於您進入中國的煉焦煤數量的一致性或可見性，以及您所看到的與套利相關的需求受到的影響如何。

Over to Réal Foley.

轉到皇家弗利。

So Curt, if you look at our historical sales distribution, we sold as much as around 30% of our sales to China going back to 2014. Currently, in 2017, we sold about half of that. So around 15% or so of our sales have gone to China.

Curt，如果你看一下我們的歷史銷售分佈，你會發現，自 2014 年以來，我們的銷售額中有 30% 左右銷往中國。所以我們大約 15% 左右的銷售額流向了中國。

The demand in China continues to be strong. However, demand is also strong in other market areas. So what we've tried to do is allocate our available coal products to all the growth markets around the world. So that includes India, where we've doubled our sales from around 5% in 2014 to 10% in 2017.

中國的需求持續強勁。然而，其他市場領域的需求也很強勁。因此，我們試圖做的就是將我們可用的煤炭產品分配給世界各地所有的成長市場。其中包括印度，我們的銷售額翻了一番，從 2014 年的 5% 左右增加到 2017 年的 10%。

We've also increased sales to Eastern Europe, as some Eastern European mines are getting depleted and producing at lower levels. So we've increased those sales from around 15% to 20% in 2017. And we've continued to support our long-term customers in the Asian market plus developing new customers in Southeast Asia. So that -- does that answer your question?

我們也增加了對東歐的銷售，因為一些東歐礦場正在枯竭並且產量較低。因此，2017 年我們的銷售額從 15% 左右增加到 20%。那麼——這能回答你的問題嗎？

Yes. I mean, is -- I guess, I'm trying to understand some of the structural need for high-quality met into China. And I guess, the question would be, is the China buy for you just sporadic based on sort of the arb -- the arbitrage level?

是的。我的意思是，我想，我正在嘗試了解中國對高品質產品的一些結構性需求。我想，問題是，中國的買進是否只是基於某種套利——套利水準？

Or is the volumes you're selling into China, is it a fairly consistent baseload supply where you're selling to the same mills over a period of time? I'm just trying to understand kind of the structural component of that business for you, if that makes sense?

還是您向中國銷售的數量，在一段時間內向同一工廠銷售的基本負荷供應是否相當穩定？我只是想為您了解該業務的結構組成部分，這是否有意義？

Yes. So to answer the first part of your question. Over 2/3 of China's steelmaking is located on the coast. So those steel mills do rely on seaborne-imported, high-quality hard coking coal.

是的。所以回答你問題的第一部分。中國2/3以上的鋼鐵生產位於沿海。因此，這些鋼廠確實依賴海運進口的優質硬焦煤。

In terms of our business, we have a number of established customers to whom we supply to, pretty stable over the years. So those sales have not changed. What is changed is, some of the customers that we have developed and that were maybe more on a spot basis, we've developed new demand in other markets. For instance, India demand is growing very quickly, so we have increased our sales to the India market.

就我們的業務而言，我們擁有許多穩定的供貨客戶。所以這些銷售額沒有改變。改變的是，我們開發的一些客戶可能更多是現貨，我們在其他市場開發了新的需求。例如，印度的需求成長非常快，所以我們增加了對印度市場的銷售。

And then as I said earlier, we've also increased sales to European steel mills and to Southeast Asian customers. So we're basically reallocating, depending on where we see demand and -- long-term demand for coking coal.

正如我之前所說，我們也增加了對歐洲鋼廠和東南亞客戶的銷售。因此，我們基本上是在重新分配，這取決於我們看到的需求以及煉焦煤的長期需求。

Yes. I might just add an overview comment. Going back 4 or 5 years when our coal sales to China peaked, as Réal said over 30%, I think we actually hit 8 million tonnes in 1 year. We concluded that since anybody in the commodities business is always subject to Chinese price risk, and since China is the incremental buyer of almost everything and setting the price, we didn't also want to be exposed to too much Chinese commercial risk or volume risk.

是的。我可能只是添加一個概述評論。回顧四、五年前，當我們對中國的煤炭銷售達到頂峰時，正如 Réal 所說，超過 30%，我認為我們實際上在一年內達到了 800 萬噸。我們的結論是，由於大宗商品業務中的任何人總是受到中國價格風險的影響，而且由於中國是幾乎所有商品的增量買家並製定價格，因此我們也不希望面臨太多的中國商業風險或數量風險。

And so we made a deliberate decision to cut our sales from that peak level in half, and we're now even below that. So we're in a much smaller level now, we're much more comfortable with it. And even though sales are to core customers, as Réal has just described that we've had relationship quite some time now, so it's a much more kind of stable part of our sales book. And we've diversified even further so we like having the risk spread amongst different countries, different customers. It's just better diversification.

因此，我們深思熟慮地決定將銷售額從峰值水平削減一半，而現在我們甚至低於這個水平。所以我們現在處於一個更小的水平，我們對此感到更加舒適。儘管銷售對像是核心客戶，正如 Réal 剛剛描述的那樣，我們已經建立了相當長的關係，所以它是我們銷售記錄中更穩定的部分。我們已經進一步多元化，因此我們希望將風險分散在不同的國家、不同的客戶之間。這只是更好的多元化。

The next question is from Greg Barnes of TD Securities.

下一個問題來自道明證券 (TD Securities) 的 Greg Barnes。

Yes. Just wanted to follow up on the increasing CapEx at Q2 for the first 9 months of the year is USD 250 million. What is the spend going to be on the increased spend?

是的。只是想跟進今年前 9 個月第二季資本支出增加的情況，即 2.5 億美元。增加的支出將花費多少？

Yes, Dale Andres.

是的，戴爾·安德烈斯。

Thanks, Greg. For the first 9 months and leading up to a potential sanctioned decision in second half of 2018, we're really focused on advancing, for one, getting the permit. We still expect that to be in the second quarter, in this current quarter, but still advancing detailed engineering.

謝謝，格雷格。在前 9 個月以及 2018 年下半年可能做出的批准決定之前，我們真正專注於取得許可。我們仍然預計這將在第二季（當前季度）進行，但仍在推進詳細的工程設計。

As part of advancing that detailed engineering, we do need to enter into contracts mainly for vendor information. And there's some costs associated with that. But primarily, it's getting ready for execution, both on construction and operational readiness basis. So we've got the teams working hard and it's progressing well.

作為推進詳細工程的一部分，我們確實需要簽訂主要針對供應商資訊的合約。與此相關的還有一些成本。但首先，它正在為施工和營運準備就緒做好執行準備。所以我們的團隊正在努力工作並且進展順利。

Are you actually doing any physical work on the ground there?

你真的在那裡做任何體力勞動嗎？

There is a minor amount of work, refurbishing some old camps up on site. But outside of that, no, we're waiting for the EIA approval.

還有少量工作，需要在現場翻新一些舊營地。但除此之外，不，我們正在等待環境影響評估的批准。

Okay. And Don, I know you said you're going to provide more details on NuevaUnión economics when you come out with the feasibility study. But can you give us some ballpark numbers around, I know you hate it, IRR and other metrics like that?

好的。唐，我知道您說過，當您提出可行性研究報告時，您將提供有關新聯盟經濟學的更多詳細資訊。但是你能給我們一些大概的數字嗎？ 我知道你討厭它，IRR 和其他類似的指標？

I think we're going to leave that to the analysts and investment community who choose their own commodity prices and exchange rates. And we see a lot more to be done from this point of pre-feasibility publication through the feasibility in terms of optimizing the project. And so numbers like that would soon become kind of academic, so we're leaving it to you guys to make those assumptions.

我認為我們將把這個問題留給分析師和投資界，他們可以選擇自己的商品價格和匯率。我們認為，從預可行性發布這一點到優化專案的可行性，還有很多工作要做。所以這樣的數字很快就會變得有點學術性，所以我們把這些假設留給你們來做。

So other than high-pressure grinding rolls, what other things can you do to optimize the project?

那麼除了高壓磨輥之外，還可以採取哪些措施來優化專案呢？

You got to see these conveyors. Dale or Alex, you want to talk about it? This is so cool.

你一定要去看看這些傳送帶。戴爾或亞歷克斯，你想談談嗎？這太酷了。

Yes. I guess, Greg, there's 2 or 3 things that we're working on here. Certainly, the high-pressure grinding rolls make a substantial difference in terms of our operating costs. So that's certainly one thing. And that's, right now, inside the PFS, and we're appointing our engineering on that.

是的。我想，格雷格，我們正在做兩三件事。當然，高壓磨輥對我們的營運成本有很大的影響。所以這當然是一回事。現在，這就是 PFS 內部的情況，我們正在任命我們的工程人員。

We have the hybrid conveyors that were in Phase 2 that are going to be moving the crushed ore from La Fortuna down to the Relincho site and those are a combination of both on-the-ground conveyors and suspended conveyors. And essentially, we're there. We're going to be a positive in terms of energy consumption in that. So essentially, we're going to be producing energy from those conveyors so that's certainly something that is going to impact.

我們在第二階段擁有混合輸送機，將把碎礦石從拉福圖納運送到雷林喬場地，這些輸送機是地面輸送機和懸吊輸送機的組合。本質上，我們就在那裡。我們將在能源消耗方面發揮積極作用。因此，從本質上講，我們將透過這些輸送機生產能源，因此這肯定會產生影響。

We're also working on several other engineering opportunities including things like some of our autonomous haul assessments and certainly looking at some of our recovery and the potential future under block -- underground block key at La Fortuna. So quite a number of things on the opportunity list here that we're working on both between PFS and the feasibility kickoff as well as within the feasibility study itself.

我們也正在研究其他幾個工程機會，包括我們的一些自主運輸評估，當然還有我們的一些恢復和潛在的未來——拉福圖納地下區塊的關鍵。因此，我們正在 PFS 和可行性啟動之間以及可行性研究本身的範圍內處理機會清單上的許多事情。

So the HPGs and the conveyors were not included in the pre-feas or you're optimizing in the feas from the...

因此，HPG 和輸送機未包含在預可行性研究中，或者您正在優化可行性研究…

They are included in the pre-feas, but we'll be optimizing in the feas.

它們包含在預可行性研究中，但我們將在預可行性研究中進行最佳化。

I should just remind people the timeline in this that we now, after a bit of a pause, we'll move to feasibility, which takes about a year. And we wouldn't be filing the SEIA until December, I think, is the target. Just looking to confirm that.

我應該提醒人們的時間表是，經過一段時間的暫停後，我們將轉向可行性研究，這需要大約一年的時間。我認為，我們的目標是 12 月之前不會提交 SEIA。只是想確認一下。

Yes. Sometime between preparation of the feasibility study. So the very earliest would be the end of this year and -- but sometime before we anticipate to finish the feasibility study, which would be mid-2019.

是的。準備可行性研究之間的某個時間點。因此，最早是在今年年底，但我們預計在 2019 年中期完成可行性研究之前的某個時間。

That's when you would apply for the EIA?

那你什麼時候申請EIA？

Exactly.

確切地。

So it's a good couple years before there's any significant capital decisions.

因此，要過好幾年才能做出任何重大的資本決策。

The next question is from Chris Terry of Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的克里斯·特里。

Don and Tim, yes, couple questions from me. On the CapEx, just following up from Greg's question there, can you talk a little bit about Neptune and the timing on a decision and the CapEx there? I know you talked about it a little bit at the Investor Day, but just wanted to get your latest thoughts on that.

唐和提姆，是的，我問了幾個問題。關於資本支出，緊接著格雷格的問題，您能談談海王星以及決策的時機和那裡的資本支出嗎？我知道您在投資者日談論過這個問題，但只是想了解您對此的最新想法。

And then with QB2, as we head out to 2019, can you give some sort of indication on the ramp-up of how CapEx might look? I don't want to jump to conclusions that you plan to go ahead with it. But just trying to get, conceptually, an idea of what the CapEx delta above the sustaining model look like into the next year or so. That's my first question. I'll ask the other one in a minute.

然後，在 QB2 中，當我們即將邁入 2019 年時，您能否就資本支出的成長給出一些指示？我不想倉促下結論說你打算繼續這樣做。但只是想從概念上了解明年左右維持模型之上的資本支出增量會是什麼樣子。這是我的第一個問題。我一會兒再問另一個。

Okay. So on the Neptune question, we will be accelerating the program there. And we'll now spend approximately $120 million this year versus the, I think, $85 million we had disclosed before. And we expect the board to approve, very soon, the

好的。因此，在海王星問題上，我們將加快那裡的計劃。今年我們將支出約 1.2 億美元，而我認為我們之前披露的支出為 8500 萬美元。我們預計董事會很快就會批准

balance of the capital, which should be an incremental $220 million from here to complete the project. So I think that's that.

資本餘額，從這裡應該增加 2.2 億美元來完成該項目。所以我認為就是這樣。

Then on the QB2, who wants to take that one up? The ramp-up of capital. This is -- our past sanction, is that the question, like once it is sanctioned?

那麼在QB2上，誰願意接手這個呢？資本的增加。這是——我們過去的製裁，這就是問題嗎，就像一旦受到製裁一樣？

Yes. I mean, you've given the updated guidance for this year, I guess, on what you're going to spend on the pre-sanctioned numbers, I assume. And then if that was to be approved, just what we could expect I guess into late, late '18 and then into '19? Just a rough trajectory on how the spending might look into those years.

是的。我的意思是，我猜你已經給出了今年的最新指導，關於你將在預先批准的數字上花費什麼。然後，如果要獲得批准，我猜我們可以期待 18 年底，然後到 19 年？只是這些年的支出情況的粗略軌跡。

So we have those numbers, but we may not have them right here. We'll either come back to you at the end of this call or get back to you directly.

所以我們有這些數字，但我們這裡可能沒有。我們會在通話結束時回覆您，或直接回覆您。

We did release some numbers in -- capital spend profile when we released the feasibility results in Q1 2017. And that just -- I need to pull those direct numbers back so I can come back with a number on that.

當我們在 2017 年第一季發布可行性結果時，我們確實發布了資本支出概況中的一些數字。

They're in the public domain, but we'll find them and get back to you.

它們屬於公共領域，但我們會找到它們並回覆您。

Okay. Okay. Sure. And then the other one is on coal. You talked a bit about what happened in 1Q. But given we're quite away now through 2Q and the lag on the process, how do we think about the likely realized price for 2Q, specifically?

好的。好的。當然。另一種是靠煤炭。您談到了第一季發生的事情。但考慮到我們現在已經度過了第二季度，而流程存在滯後，我們如何具體考慮第二季度可能實現的價格？

Réal? He hates questions like that in the third week of April.

真實的？他討厭四月第三週提出這樣的問題。

So we're about -- we're a bit more than halfway through the quarter, Chris. So the lagged index-linked price for the quarter is still sitting above $205 today.

所以，克里斯，我們這個季度已經過了一半。因此，本季滯後的指數掛鉤價格今天仍高於 205 美元。

It's a bit tough to say what will happen to the spot prices for the rest of the quarter. This morning, it's a bit over $177. So it's corrected over $15 since the beginning of April.

很難說本季剩餘時間的現貨價格會發生什麼變化。今天早上，價格略高於 177 美元。因此自 4 月初以來已修正超過 15 美元。

In terms of demand, demand is still strong across all market areas, whether it's China or the rest of the world. So we see customers continuing to take coal on a ratable basis. And then on the supply side, there's still issues, whether it's logistics or production disruption. So overall, we still see the market as being tight. It's just difficult to say where exactly the spot prices may end up by the end of the quarter.

從需求來看，無論是中國或世界其他地區，所有市場領域的需求仍然強勁。因此，我們看到客戶繼續按比例購買煤炭。然後在供應方面，仍然存在問題，無論是物流還是生產中斷。因此，總體而言，我們仍然認為市場緊張。很難說到本季末現貨價格到底會達到什麼水準。

Okay. And maybe just on the realized price versus the index price. Just on, I think, it was 87-odd percent last quarter. Do you think that, that comes up for this quarter a bit more towards the historical average, or where would you see that?

好的。也許只是基於已實現價格與指數價格的比較。我想，上個季度的比例是 87% 左右。您認為本季的情況是否更接近歷史平均水平，或者您會在哪裡看到這一點？

Yes. We're no longer going to give guidance on realized prices, Chris, because it's just been too volatile. If you look at our history from Q2 of 2010 until now, our realized price has reached anywhere from 75% to 104% of the assessments.

是的。克里斯，我們將不再對已實現的價格提供指導，因為它的波動性太大了。如果你看看我們從 2010 年第二季到現在的歷史，我們的實現價格已經達到了評估的 75% 到 104%。

And that's a function of price spreads as we've seen in this past quarter. But it's also timing of sales, it's direction of the spot market, which can change at any time during the quarter, it's timing of vessel arrivals, product mix. So there is a lot of different variables that come into play.

正如我們在上個季度所看到的，這是價差的函數。但這也是銷售的時機、現貨市場的方向（在本季的任何時間都可能發生變化）、船舶到達的時機、產品組合。因此，有很多不同的變數在起作用。

Yes. So one of the problems, Chris, was that if we gave out a percent, then people would use that for the balance of the quarter when, in fact, it was only good for that hour. And now particularly, as we've seen in other product qualities, the spreads, as Real's talked about, can be quite volatile.

是的。所以，克里斯，問題之一是，如果我們給出一個百分比，那麼人們就會將其用於該季度的餘額，而事實上，它只適用於那個小時。現在特別是，正如我們在其他產品品質中看到的那樣，正如 Real 所說，價差可能非常不穩定。

So we're encouraging analysts on The Street to follow the trade journals that publish not just the index link, sort of, rolling 3-month average per hard coking coal, but also to look at the spreads for the semihard and semisoft and PCI and come up with your own estimate for the quarter.

因此，我們鼓勵華爾街的分析師關注貿易期刊，這些期刊不僅發布指數連結（某種硬焦煤的 3 個月滾動平均值），而且還關注半硬焦煤、半軟焦煤和 PCI 的價差。對本季的估計。

The next question is from Orest Wowkodaw of Scotiabank.

下一個問題來自豐業銀行的 Orest Wowkodaw。

Just actually a follow-on, I guess, from the previous question. Two things: one, are you seeing -- I mean, with spot pricing falling for coal in the last couple weeks, are you seeing any of your spot customers pull back orders in anticipation of continuation in spot pricing? And I'm curious how that will impact your realizations for the quarter.

我想，這其實只是上一個問題的後續。有兩件事：第一，您是否看到——我的意思是，隨著過去幾週煤炭現貨價格的下跌，您是否看到您的任何現貨客戶因預期現貨價格將持續而撤回訂單？我很好奇這將如何影響您本季的實現。

And then secondly as well, can you give us an idea, is there a big difference in your coal quality mix, say, in the second quarter from what we saw in the first quarter? Or is this here pretty similar on a quarterly basis from a mix perspective?

其次，您能否給我們一個想法，例如，第二季度的煤炭品質結構與我們第一季看到的情況有很大差異嗎？或者從混合的角度來看，這在季度基礎上是否非常相似？

Okay. So maybe starting with the second question, Orest. So our product mix is back to normal since Q1. So in Q4 last year, we had a higher proportion of thermal sales as we've indicated when we reported our Q4 results. But now we're back to around 75% of our production as hard coking coal and the remaining 25% is semihard, semisoft, PCI. Thermal is typically a couple percentage points.

好的。那麼，也許可以從第二個問題開始，Orest。因此，我們的產品組合自第一季以來已恢復正常。因此，正如我們在報告第四季度業績時所表明的那樣，去年第四季度，我們的熱力銷售比例較高。但現在我們的產量恢復到 75% 左右為硬焦煤，其餘 25% 為半硬煤、半軟煤、噴吹煤。熱量通常是幾個百分點。

Now that can vary quarter-to-quarter. As I answered on a previous question, I mean, there are releases that can impact that. But overall, for 2018, we're expecting around 75% of our production to be high-grade hard coking coal.

現在，每個季度的情況可能會有所不同。正如我在上一個問題中回答的那樣，我的意思是，有些版本可能會影響這一點。但整體而言，2018 年，我們預期 75% 左右的產量是高品位硬焦煤。

To the first question on the spot price, as steel pricing and steel demand remain strong in the world, we're seeing regular demand in the market. It's a little bit different from what we had seen in the past, whereby there was a massive pullout from the market when there was a big price correction following Cyclone Debbie last year.

關於現貨價格的第一個問題，由於全球鋼材定價和鋼材需求依然強勁，我們看到市場需求正常。這與我們過去看到的情況有點不同，去年颶風黛比之後價格出現大幅調整，市場出現大規模撤資。

So you'll recall that at that time, spot prices had reached over $300, and they corrected to somewhere around the $140, $150 level, so it was a massive pullback. This time, the pullback is smaller. And as steel demand is good and steel pricing is good, steel producers still require the hard coking coal to produce.

所以你會記得，當時現貨價格已經超過 300 美元，然後調整到 140 美元、150 美元左右的水平，所以這是一個巨大的回調。這次回檔幅度較小。由於鋼鐵需求良好且鋼鐵定價良好，鋼鐵生產商仍然需要硬焦煤來生產。

Okay. So it sounds like you're saying that from a realization perspective, there shouldn't -- we shouldn't see a repeat of what we saw the last time coal pricing really declined on a spot basis.

好的。所以聽起來你是在說，從實現的角度來看，我們不應該看到上次煤炭價格在現貨基礎上真正下跌的情況重演。

Yes, I guess. You need to look at the spreads and it will be impacted by the various other factors I've mentioned earlier.

是的，我想。您需要查看點差，它會受到我之前提到的各種其他因素的影響。

Okay. And just, again, on the quality. Because of the closure, I guess, of Coal Mountain, which is supposed to increase the quality of your mix, does that mean that the front end of the year is actually a weaker mix of product?

好的。再次強調品質。我想，由於 Coal Mountain 的關閉，本應提高產品組合的質量，這是否意味著今年前端的產品組合實際上較弱？

So as we're mining into the recently permitted areas, of course, the product mix can be a little bit different. So your expectation is probably appropriate. When we look at 2018, overall, we'll be around 75% hard coking coal. It can vary quarter-to-quarter.

因此，當我們挖掘最近允許的領域時，產品組合當然可能會有所不同。所以你的期望可能是合適的。展望 2018 年，整體而言，硬焦煤佔比將達到 75% 左右。它可能會因季度而異。

And just finally, what was the actual mix in Q1 between premium hard coking coal and the rest?

最後，第一季優質硬焦煤和其他煤炭的實際組合是怎麼樣的？

It was -- production was pretty close to the 75% level. The main issue was actually getting the coal to market as we've indicated with the logistics issues and mainly the impact of Westshore.

產量非常接近 75% 的水平。主要問題實際上是將煤炭推向市場，正如我們在物流問題以及主要是西岸的影響中所指出的那樣。

I see. And your guidance for the second quarter of 6.7 million tonnes, does that assume an improvement at Westshore or is that just basically the status quo?

我懂了。你們對第二季 670 萬噸的指導，是假設 Westshore 有所改善還是基本上就是現狀？

No. It assumes that Westshore will continue to improve. We have seen some improvements since the start of April. We've also seen improvements on the rail side. So subject to that continuing, the 6.7 million tonnes is based on that.

不會。自四月初以來，我們看到了一些改進。我們也看到了鐵路方面的改進。因此，在這種情況持續下去的情況下，670 萬噸就是以此為基礎的。

The next question is from Oscar Cabrera of CIBC World Markets.

下一個問題來自 CIBC 全球市場的 Oscar Cabrera。

With the increased expenditures in QB2 this year, has -- in terms of thinking of your capital structure, have you changed your priorities in terms of returning cash to shareholders? I.e., will the supplemental dividend be viewed as a priority in 2019 versus spending more capital at QB2 in the second half of this year?

隨著今年第二季支出的增加，就您的資本結構而言，您是否改變了向股東返還現金的優先順序？即，與今年下半年在 QB2 上投入更多資本相比，補充股息是否會被視為 2019 年的優先事項？

Thanks, Oscar. Nothing has changed in terms of our approach there that the board will consider the supplemental dividend and buybacks at the November board meeting, and it will be based on our outlook for the business.

謝謝，奧斯卡。我們的做法沒有任何改變，即董事會將在 11 月的董事會會議上考慮補充股利和回購，這將基於我們對業務的前景。

But based on, first, how good the year was; second the outlook for commodity prices and financial results in the coming year; and then third, the capital needs of the business going forward, including QB2.

但首先是基於這一年的表現如何；二是來年大宗商品價格和財務表現的展望；第三，業務未來的資本需求，包括 QB2。

And this is April, that's in November, lots could change between now and then, so I can't predict what they're going to do. But I suspect that if things carry on anywhere near where they are today, that we'd have something similar in terms of discussion around it as we did last year.

這是四月，那是十一月，從現在到那時可能會發生很多變化，所以我無法預測他們會做什麼。但我懷疑，如果事情繼續發展到今天的程度，我們就會像去年一樣進行類似的討論。

Okay. And then back in 2013 or '14, I forget now, but when the price participation from coal was removed and you increased the availability from CP and CN, you provided a map of the flows of coal to the coast.

好的。然後回到 2013 年或 14 年，我現在忘記了，但是當煤炭的價格參與被取消並且您增加了 CP 和 CN 的可用性時，您提供了煤炭流向海岸的地圖。

It seems like with the additional expenditure and net change, you're looking at going back to some of the figures. Can you remind me what the actual capacity of Neptune and Ridley can be? Would you consider moving more out of Westshore to prevent all of these things that we're seeing now?

似乎隨著額外支出和淨變化，您正在考慮返回一些數字。你能提醒我海王星和雷德利的實際容量是多少嗎？你會考慮把更多的東西搬出西岸，以防止我們現在看到的所有這些事情嗎？

So the current capacity at Neptune is 12.5 million tonnes. And as we've said, the upgrades that we're investing in will take it formally to 18.5 million tonnes. But with upside certainly beyond 20 million tonnes and more. We do have volume contracts in place at Ridley and Neptune, we can see what the number is there.

因此，海王星目前的產能為 1,250 萬噸。正如我們所說，我們正在投資的升級將使其正式達到 1850 萬噸。但上漲空間肯定超過 2,000 萬噸甚至更多。我們確實在 Ridley 和 Neptune 簽訂了批量合同，我們可以看到那裡的數量。

(inaudible)

（聽不清楚）

3 million tonnes of contracts at Ridley as well. So where everything ends up, you'll have to wait, probably, till 2021 to see how that goes. But we'll certainly have more capacity.

Ridley 也簽訂了 300 萬噸合約。因此，一切最終結果如何，你可能要等到 2021 年才能知道進展如何。但我們肯定會有更多的能力。

Okay. And just lastly, a clarification on the figure that you provided for Neptune in this year. Now it's $220 million. If I remember correctly, the original estimate that we had back in 2014 was like $250 million. Is that still the ballpark that we should be looking at?

好的。最後，對您今年提供的海王星數據進行澄清。現在是2.2億美元。如果我沒記錯的話，我們在 2014 年的最初估計約為 2.5 億美元。這仍然是我們應該關注的大致範圍嗎？

Not quite so. We earlier had said that we approved $85 million. We have now updated things, saying we will spend $120 million this year. And we are asking the board for approval for an incremental $220 million to complete the project, and we expect to get that approval shortly.

不完全是這樣。我們早些時候曾說過，我們批准了 8500 萬美元。我們現在已經更新了內容，說今年我們將花費 1.2 億美元。我們正在請求董事會批准增加 2.2 億美元來完成該項目，我們預計很快就會獲得批准。

So we're accelerating our work at Neptune, and those are the numbers. So if you add up the total cost of the project from -- including what we have spent to date would be $345 million.

所以我們正在加速我們在海王星的工作，這些就是數字。因此，如果將該項目的總成本加起來，包括我們迄今為止已花費的費用，則為 3.45 億美元。

The next question is from Alex Hacking of Citibank.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Alex Hacking。

I have a quick clarification on the CapEx, potential CapEx profile at NuevaUnión. The 3.6 to 3.7 major enhancement CapEx, how much of this would be required to bring La Fortuna online, so to Phase 2, versus kind of much longer-dated for Phase 3?

我對 NuevaUnión 的資本支出和潛在資本支出概況進行了快速澄清。 3.6 至 3.7 的主要增強資本支出，將 La Fortuna 上線所需的資本支出是多少，因此進入第 2 階段，而第 3 階段則需要更長的時間？

It's Dale, I'll take that. And consistent with what we put in the release, there's 2.6 billion to 2.7 billion tied to Phase 2 and approximately 1 billion tied to Phase 3 which, under the current scenario, would be probably for ['18 and '19]. So quite a bit down the road.

這是戴爾，我會接受的。與我們在發布中發布的內容一致，有 26 億至 27 億美元與第二階段相關，大約 10 億美元與第三階段相關，在當前情況下，這可能用於 ['18 和 '19]。所以還有相當長的路要走。

And so leading up to Phase 2 production in year 4, it would be that 2.6 billion to 2.7 billion, which is the connection up to the La Fortuna site and would include mining equipment and pre-stripping activities at La Fortuna.

因此，在第4 年的第二階段生產之前，將有26 億至27 億美元，這是與拉福圖納(La Fortuna) 地點的連接，並將包括拉福圖納(La Fortuna) 的採礦設備和預剝離活動。

The next question is from Ralph Profiti of Eight Capital.

下一個問題來自八資本的拉爾夫·普羅菲蒂。

Don, is your view of these logistical challenges, if I can come back to them, more related to performance or are these bringing to light some of the structural issues?

唐，如果我可以回頭談一下，您對這些後勤挑戰的看法是否與績效更相關，或者這些挑戰是否揭示了一些結構性問題？

And are you seeing, potentially, significant investment required by your logistics partners in order to get Teck to the desired movement of coal that -- to where it needs to be? I'm thinking larger vessels, longer trains, stuff like that.

您是否看到您的物流合作夥伴可能需要大量投資才能讓泰克將煤炭運送到所需的位置？我正在考慮更大的船隻，更長的火車，諸如此類的東西。

No. I -- we -- the main answer to that question would be performance. Of course, in any logistical change, there's going to be different bottlenecks to where it might require a little bit of capital here and there. We know Westshore has been investing some capital in things. And CN, clearly, has some issues that they'll be working on. But overall, I'd say, the answer to that question is it's about performance.

不。當然，在任何物流變革中，都會存在不同的瓶頸，可能需要一點點資金。我們知道 Westshore 一直在投資一些資本。顯然，CN 有一些問題需要解決。但總的來說，我想說，這個問題的答案是與效能有關。

The next question is from Karl Blunden of Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的卡爾布倫登。

It sounds like you have a lot of different options with regard to capital allocation coming forward. You have a lot of cash coming in the door operationally and from asset sales.

聽起來您在未來的資本配置方面有很多不同的選擇。您將透過營運和資產出售獲得大量現金。

So the question I have for you is, could you refresh us on how you came up with your target for debt. It's a $5 billion number. You hit that. Now you're -- we're looking at coal market conditions that are staying tighter for longer, and some people think that could continue.

所以我要問你的問題是，你能否向我們介紹一下你是如何設定債務目標的？這是一個50億美元的數字。你擊中了那個。現在，我們正在關注煤炭市場狀況，該狀況將持續更長時間，有些人認為這種情況可能會持續下去。

Does a tighter coal market or more earnings power in the form of QB2 change how much corporate debt you want? And I'm thinking about this in terms of how do you -- how you'd go ahead with financing, strategy or decision around QB2?

煤炭市場趨緊或 QB2 形式的獲利能力增強是否會改變您想要多少企業債務？我正在考慮如何圍繞 QB2 進行融資、策略或決策？

I'm going to turn that over to Ron Millos. But first, I want to say, less is better. But over to you, Ron.

我要把它交給羅恩·米洛斯。但首先，我想說，越少越好。但現在輪到你了，羅恩。

Yes. The -- we lost our investment-grade credit rating a few years back and we would like to get that back, but we are at the mercy of the rating agencies. So one of the comments they've made over the years is they've cut back the ratios. We were at sort of a 30% debt-equity ratio and a 2.5x leverage ratio.

是的。幾年前，我們失去了投資級信用評級，我們希望收回它，但我們受到評級機構的擺佈。因此，他們多年來發表的評論之一是他們降低了比率。我們的負債股本比率約為 30%，槓桿比率為 2.5 倍。

And the debt-equity ratio is not an issue for us. The leverage ratio is the big problem for us in a low commodity price environment where we don't have the EBITDA to support that. So the general view is that we needed to get our debt down, and we've done that to get it below that $5 billion target level there. The agencies have also sort of reduced a little bit on the leverage ratio by about half a turn as well for the indication.

而且債務股本比對我們來說不是問題。在低商品價格環境下，槓桿率對我們來說是一個大問題，我們沒有 EBITDA 來支持這一點。因此，普遍的觀點是，我們需要降低債務，而我們這樣做是為了使其債務低於 50 億美元的目標水準。根據該指標，各機構也將槓桿率略微降低了約半圈。

To get back to investment grade, the big outstanding item that they're looking for now is a bit more clarity on what we're going to do with QB2, what the final costs are, the ownership structure and how we intend to finance QB2. We're in the process of looking at the financing options and we're considering -- we're kind of riding 2 horses right now looking at both the project financing option and whether we might go to the bond market at some point down the road.

回到投資級別，他們現在正在尋找的重要的突出項目是更清楚地了解我們將如何處理 QB2、最終成本是多少、所有權結構以及我們打算如何為 QB2 融資。我們正在考慮融資選擇，我們正在考慮——我們現在就像騎兩匹馬一樣，考慮項目融資選擇以及我們是否可能在未來某個時候進入債券市場。

We should reinforce that our ratios are well into investment-grade territory. Our CDS is well into investment-grade territory and the bonds are trading at investment-grade levels.

我們應該強調，我們的比率已完全達到投資等級。我們的 CDS 已完全進入投資等級領域，債券也以投資等級進行交易。

That's very helpful. Just a quick follow-up. On the project financing, I realize it's still early days, but any complications, anything you found as you've gone down that part? There have been other project financing efforts in the market that haven't succeeded recently. Just any color you can share there would be helpful.

這非常有幫助。只是快速跟進。關於專案融資，我意識到現在還處於早期階段，但是有什麼複雜的情況嗎？市場上還有其他專案融資努力，但最近並未成功。您可以在那裡分享的任何顏色都會有幫助。

Sure. We're sort of at the front end of that, and there's been nothing at this stage that's been flagged that's causing us any great grief.

當然。我們正處於這方面的前端，現階段還沒有任何事情被標記為給我們帶來任何巨大的悲傷。

The next question is from Mark Levin of Seaport Global.

下一個問題來自 Seaport Global 的 Mark Levin。

Two quick questions. When you think about your investment in Neptune going forward, maybe could you give us some parameters or at least the way to think about of what the potential cost savings opportunities might be if you were to shift more volume away from Westshore -- or away from Westshore toward Neptune?

兩個簡單的問題。當您考慮未來對 Neptune 的投資時，也許您可以給我們一些參數，或者至少提供一些方法來思考如果您要將更多業務從 Westshore 或從西海岸朝向海王星？

And then my second question, then I'll just hang up and listen, relates to Quintette. Have you had any further thoughts around Quintette? If you were to green light QB2, does that necessarily take Quintette off the table? Would you be willing to do 2 major capital projects concurrently?

然後我的第二個問題，我就掛斷電話，聽聽，與五重奏有關。您對五重奏還有什麼進一步的想法嗎？如果你給 QB2 開綠燈，是否一定會讓 Quintette 退出談判桌？您願意同時進行 2 個重大資本項目嗎？

Okay. On the first one, we have not disclosed the magnitude of the potential savings, but you can expect that they would be significant.

好的。對於第一個，我們尚未透露潛在節省的規模，但您可以預期它們將是巨大的。

On the Quintette, we continue to look at it. We know that there are customers that would be eager for us to bring it online, but it is not something that we see in the near term. And frankly, QB2 is still our priority for the long-term building of the company, so that's probably where that stands.

關於五重奏，我們繼續關注。我們知道有些客戶渴望我們將其上線，但短期內我們不會看到這種情況。坦白說，QB2 仍然是我們公司長期建設的首要任務，所以這可能是現狀。

Okay. Last one, actually, and this one is more for Réal. Have there been any customers reaching out to you concerned about the Aurizon rail situation in Australia? Do you see -- how do you see that situation if it kind of stays the way it is? Meaning, the draft decision turns into the final decision. What might that mean for Teck from your perspective?

好的。事實上，最後一張，這張更適合雷亞爾。是否有客戶聯絡過您，擔心澳洲 Aurizon 鐵路的情況？如果這種情況持續下去，你會如何看待這種情況？這意味著，決定草案變成了最終決定。從您的角度來看，這對泰克意味著什麼？

So Mark, we're seeing -- I guess, everybody is watching what may happen with Aurizon. So far, Aurizon have said that the impact could be up to 20 million tonnes. And half of that impact could be on the Goonyella line, which is the line that carries, mostly, high-grade hard coking coal.

所以馬克，我們看到——我猜，每個人都在關注 Aurizon 可能會發生什麼。到目前為止，Aurizon 表示影響可能高達 2,000 萬噸。其中一半的影響可能來自 Goonyella 生產線，該生產線主要運輸高品位硬焦煤。

So it could definitely have an impact on the market from a supply point of view. We haven't seen major shifts from customers yet, but it is definitely a concern.

因此，從供應的角度來看，它肯定會對市場產生影響。我們還沒有看到客戶發生重大轉變，但這絕對是一個問題。

The last question is from Lucas Pipes of B. Riley FBR.

最後一個問題來自 B. Riley FBR 的 Lucas Pipes。

I wanted to circle back to Neptune one more time and I wanted to ask specifically, is there a reasonable business case where it would not make sense to go ahead with the capital at this late a stage?

我想再次回到海王星，我想具體問一下，是否有一個合理的商業案例表明在這麼晚的階段繼續進行資本是沒有意義的？

Given the results of Q1, I would say no. But we're always open to consider options and we would always be balancing any other opportunities against the current investment. But we're pretty committed and we know that there are going to be significant cost savings.

鑑於第一季的結果，我會說不。但我們始終願意考慮各種選擇，並且我們始終會在任何其他機會與當前投資之間進行平衡。但我們非常堅定，我們知道這將節省大量成本。

But beyond that, and probably more than that, is the reliability factor is so important in being able to ship the coal, particularly when prices are high. And when you build in that factor, the -- what I call a moderate investment in Neptune, is pretty compelling. And it's really about having a long-term, reliable supply chain for a very important business. So that's how we think about it.

但除此之外，甚至更重要的是，可靠性因素對於煤炭運輸來說非常重要，尤其是在價格高的時候。當你考慮到這個因素時，我所說的對海王星的適度投資是相當引人注目的。這實際上是為非常重要的業務擁有長期、可靠的供應鏈。這就是我們的想法。

That's very helpful. And just maybe to pick up on what you said there with lost -- the opportunity cost during the first quarter. Réal, you may have mentioned it earlier, but is it possible to quantify the loss in revenue due to the logistic issues in Q1? Or maybe to just boil it down to one number, what would your realized price have been if you had shipped all the tonnes that you had demand for?

這非常有幫助。也許只是想了解你所說的損失——第一季的機會成本。 Réal，您可能已經提到過，但是是否可以量化第一季因物流問題而造成的收入損失？或者也許只是將其歸結為一個數字，如果您運送了所需的所有噸數，您的實際價格會是多少？

So Lucas, as I said earlier, if it would have been a normal quarter in terms of volume and also in terms of spreads, keep in mind that the spreads between the high-grade hard coking coal and the lower-grade materials were at record levels. So if you factor all that in, our realization would have been comparable to historical levels.

因此，盧卡斯，正如我之前所說，如果就數量和價差而言這是一個正常的季度，請記住，高品位硬焦煤和低品位材料之間的價差處於創紀錄水平水平。因此，如果將所有這些因素考慮在內，我們的實現將與歷史水準相當。

Thank you. There are no further questions registered at this time. I would now like to return the meeting back over to Mr. Lindsay. Please proceed, sir.

謝謝。目前沒有登記任何其他問題。我現在想把會議交還給林賽先生。請繼續，先生。

Well, thank you all for joining us this morning. We look forward to speaking to you again in July and looking forward to having some of these valuation milestones or catalysts, as you like to call them, to announce in the meantime. Thanks very much, all.

好的，謝謝大家今天早上加入我們。我們期待在 7 月再次與您交談，並期待同時宣布其中一些估值里程碑或催化劑（正如您所說的那樣）。非常感謝大家。

Thank you. The conference has now ended. Please disconnect your lines at this time. We thank you for your participation.

謝謝。會議現已結束。此時請斷開您的線路。我們感謝您的參與。