Teledyne Technologies Inc (TDY) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Teledyne's fourth-quarter earnings release conference call. Here is our first speaker, Mr. Jason VanWees.

歡迎參加 Teledyne 第四季財報發布電話會議。這是我們的第一位發言者，Jason VanWees 先生。

Good morning, everyone. This is Jason VanWees, Vice Chairman. I'd like to welcome everyone to Teledyne's fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings release conference call. We released our earnings earlier this morning before the market opened.

大家早安。我是副主席 Jason VanWees。歡迎大家參加 Teledyne 2024 年第四季和全年財報發布電話會議。我們在今天早上市場開盤前公佈了我們的收益。

Joining me today are Teledyne's Executive Chairman, Robert Mehrabian; CEO, Edwin Roks; President and COO, George Bobb; Senior Vice President and CFO, Steve Blackwood; and Melanie Cibik, EVP, General Counsel, Chief Compliance Officer, and Secretary. After remarks by Robert, Edwin, George, and Steve, we will [take] your questions.

今天與我一起出席的還有 Teledyne 的執行董事長 Robert Mehrabian；執行長 Edwin Roks；總裁兼營運長喬治鮑伯 (George Bobb)；資深副總裁兼財務長史蒂夫‧布萊克伍德 (Steve Blackwood)；以及執行副總裁、總法律顧問、首席合規官兼秘書 Melanie Cibik。在羅伯特、艾德溫、喬治和史蒂夫發言之後，我們將回答大家的問題。

Of course, though, before we get started, our attorneys have reminded me to tell you that all forward-looking statements made this morning are subject to various assumptions, risks, and caveats, as noted in the earnings release and our periodic ethics and values. And of course, actual results may differ materially. In order to avoid potential selective disclosures, this call is simultaneously being webcast. And a replay, both via webcast and dial-in, will be available for approximately one month.

當然，在我們開始之前，我們的律師提醒我告訴你，今天早上所做的所有前瞻性陳述都受到各種假設、風險和警告的影響，如收益報告和我們定期的道德和價值觀中所述。當然，實際結果可能會大不相同。為了避免潛在的選擇性披露，本次電話會議將同時進行網路直播。並且可以透過網路直播和電話撥號的方式進行重播，持續約一個月。

Here is Robert.

這是羅伯特。

Thank you, Jason. And good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our earnings call. In the fourth quarter, we achieved many all-time records. Record sales increased 5.4% and accelerated from the third quarter. Fourth-quarter and full year non-GAAP earnings per share were records, as were fourth-quarter and full-year non-GAAP operating margins; finally, our record annual pre-cash flow, given that we ended the year with a very low leverage despite $1.1 billion of capital deployment in fiscal 2024.

謝謝你，傑森。大家早安，感謝大家參加我們的財報電話會議。在第四節，我們創造了多項歷史紀錄。創紀錄的銷售額成長了 5.4%，並且比第三季有所加速。第四季和全年非公認會計準則每股收益均創下歷史新高，第四季和全年非公認會計準則營業利潤率也創下歷史新高；最後，我們的年度預現金流創下了歷史新高，儘管 2024 財年資本部署了 11 億美元，但我們年底的槓桿率仍然很低。

We successfully closed the Micropac acquisition at the beginning of fiscal 2025, and we continue to expect the completion of the Excelitas carve-out transaction in the first quarter. We entered 2025 optimistic about our business portfolio in both commercial and defense markets. Our short-cycle commercial businesses improved throughout 2024, and comparison eased in 2025.

我們在 2025 財年年初成功完成了 Micropac 收購，我們繼續預計 Excelitas 剝離交易將在第一季完成。進入2025年，我們對商業和國防市場的業務組合充滿信心。我們的短週期商業業務在 2024 年全年有所改善，並且在 2025 年對比有所緩解。

We also believe our defense businesses, which favor purchase orders versus protracted appropriations, unmanned versus manned platforms, and standard products versus highly customized solutions are well positioned in the current environment. Nevertheless, especially given the very strong US dollar, we believe it's prudent to be a bit cautious in our 2025 outlook. Including the acquisition of Micropac but excluding the Excelitas carve-out, since this acquisition has not yet closed, we believe 2025 sales may grow approximately 4%, with non-GAAP earnings double that amount at approximately 8% at the center of our outlook range.

我們也認為，我們的國防業務在當前環境下處於有利地位，它們更傾向於採購訂單而非長期撥款、無人平台而非載人平台、標準產品而非高度客製化的解決方案。儘管如此，尤其是在美元走強的情況下，我們認為對 2025 年的展望應當謹慎一些。包括收購 Micropac 但不包括 Excelitas 剝離，因為此次收購尚未完成，我們認為 2025 年銷售額可能增長約 4%，非 GAAP 收益將是該數額的兩倍，約為 8%，處於我們預期範圍的中心。

I will now turn the call over to Edwin, who will further comment on the performance of our Digital Imaging segment.

現在我將電話轉給埃德溫，他將進一步評論我們數位成像部門的表現。

Thank you, Robert. This is Edwin, and I will first report on the Digital Imaging segment, which represents approximately 54% of Teledyne's portfolio. Fourth-quarter 2024 sales were a record and increased 2.5% compared with last year. The performance of Digital Imaging lastly reflected record sales at Teledyne FLIR, with healthy growth across FLIR's commercial, and defense infrared imaging systems, unmanned and counter-unmanned air systems, as well as maritime hardware and software.

謝謝你，羅伯特。我是埃德溫，我將首先報告數位成像部門的情況，該部門約佔 Teledyne 產品組合的 54%。2024 年第四季的銷售額創下了歷史新高，與去年相比成長了 2.5%。數位成像部門的業績最終反映了 Teledyne FLIR 創紀錄的銷售業績，FLIR 的商用和國防紅外線成像系統、無人機和反無人機系統以及海事硬體和軟體均實現了健康成長。

While sales to industrial machine vision markets declined year over year, quarterly sales were at the highest level in 2024. Our legacy space-based imaging business continued to grow. While some healthcare businesses, such as cancer radiotherapy, were resilient, sales of X-ray detectors for more consumer discretionary dental markets declined year over year. Non-GAAP operating margins improved sequentially and year over year, primarily due to the contribution from FLIR, which more than offset the year-over-year decline in higher contribution margin machine vision sales.

雖然工業機器視覺市場的銷售額年減，但 2024 年的季度銷售額達到最高水準。我們傳統的空間成像業務持續成長。儘管癌症放射治療等一些醫療保健業務表現強勁，但面向更多非必需消費品牙科市場的X光探測器銷量卻同比下降。非公認會計準則營業利潤率比上個季度和去年同期均有所提高，這主要得益於 FLIR 的貢獻，該貢獻足以抵消更高貢獻利潤率的機器視覺銷售的同比下降。

George will now report on the other three segments, which represent the balance of Teledyne.

喬治現在將報告其他三個部門的情況，這三個部門代表了 Teledyne 的平衡。

Thanks, Edwin. The instrumentation segment consists of our Marine, Environmental, and Test and Measurement businesses, which contribute a little under 25% of sales. For the total segment, overall fourth-quarter sales increased 10.1% versus last year, with growth in each major product line.

謝謝，埃德溫。儀器儀表部門包括我們的海洋、環境、測試和測量業務，這些業務貢獻了略低於 25% 的銷售額。就整個部門而言，第四季整體銷售額較去年同期成長 10.1%，各主要產品線均成長。

Sales of Marine instruments increased 21.1% in the quarter due to both strong offshore energy and subsea defense sales. Sales of Environmental Instruments increased 1.7%, primarily due to greater sales of laboratory instrumentation as well as air safety instruments. Sales of electronic Test and Measurement systems, which include oscilloscopes, protocol analyzers, and Ethernet traffic generators, sequentially improved for the third consecutive quarter and increased 2.3% year over year.

由於海上能源和海底防禦銷售強勁，本季海事儀器銷售額成長了 21.1%。環境儀器的銷售額增加了1.7％，這主要歸因於實驗室儀器以及航空安全儀器的銷售額增加。電子測試與測量系統（包括示波器、協定分析儀和乙太網路流量產生器）的銷售額連續第三個季度環比成長，年增 2.3%。

Instrumentation operating margin in the fourth quarter increased 27 basis points to 27.3% and 96 basis points on a non-GAAP basis to a record of 29.1%. In the Aerospace and Defense Electronics segment, which represents roughly 14% of Teledyne sales, fourth-quarter sales increased 6.8%, driven by growth of defense electronics products.

第四季儀器營業利潤率上升 27 個基點至 27.3%，以非 GAAP 計算則上升 96 個基點至創紀錄的 29.1%。航空航太和國防電子部門約佔 Teledyne 銷售額的 14%，第四季銷售額成長 6.8%，主要得益於國防電子產品的成長。

Overall segment operating profit increased year over year, with GAAP and non-GAAP segment margin increasing over 150 basis points. For the Engineered Systems segment, which contributes approximately 8% to overall sales, fourth-quarter revenue increased 11%. However, segment operating profit decreased due to higher cost to complete estimates on certain programs.

整體分部營業利潤年增，GAAP 和非 GAAP 分部利潤率成長超過 150 個基點。就工程系統部門而言，該部門對整體銷售額的貢獻約為 8%，第四季營收成長了 11%。然而，由於完成某些專案估算的成本較高，導致分部營業利潤下降。

I will now pass the call back to Robert.

我現在將把電話轉回給羅伯特。

Thank you, George. I'll conclude with a few comments on capital allocation. In 2024, we continued our tradition of prudent and flexible capital deployment. That is, we opportunistically repurchase stock when we felt our shares were very undervalued, while at the same time, we were willing to go for large acquisitions when we thought price expectations were unreasonable.

謝謝你，喬治。最後，我想就資本配置談幾點評論。2024年，我們延續審慎、彈性配置資本的傳統。也就是說，當我們認為我們的股票被嚴重低估時，我們會趁機回購股票，同時，當我們認為價格預期不合理時，我們願意進行大規模收購。

But then, as our own valuation partially recovered and M&A markets became more rational, we pivoted by stopping repurchases, and we're pleased to announce the Micropac and Excelitas acquisitions. Given over $1.1 billion of free cash flow in 2024, our balance sheet capacity is the highest in years and our M&A pipeline remains healthy. Nevertheless, we will continue to exercise discipline and flexibility as we have always done.

但隨後，隨著我們自身的估值部分恢復以及併購市場變得更加理性，我們透過停止回購進行了轉型，我們很高興地宣布收購 Micropac 和 Excelitas。鑑於 2024 年的自由現金流將超過 11 億美元，我們的資產負債表容量是多年來最高的，我們的併購管道仍然健康。儘管如此，我們仍將一如既往地保持紀律和靈活性。

I will now turn the call over to Steve Blackwood.

現在我將電話轉給史蒂夫布萊克伍德。

Thank you, Robert, and good morning. I will first discuss some additional financials for the quarter not covered by Robert, and then I will discuss our first-quarter and full-year 2025 outlook. To begin, our fourth-quarter non-GAAP earnings per share reflect the removal of $16.6 million of FLIR acquisition-related tax benefits. Remaining tax benefits of $13.6 million were approximately half offset by a higher tax rate.

謝謝你，羅伯特，早安。我將首先討論羅伯特未涉及的本季度的一些其他財務數據，然後我將討論我們對 2025 年第一季和全年的展望。首先，我們第四季的非 GAAP 每股盈餘反映了取消 1,660 萬美元的 FLIR 收購相關稅收優惠。剩餘的1,360萬美元的稅收優惠約有一半被更高的稅率抵消。

In the fourth quarter, cash flow from operating activities was $332.4 million compared with $164.4 million in 2023. Cash flow, that is cash flow from operating activities less capital expenditures, was $303.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to $124.2 million in 2023. Cash flow increased in the fourth quarter primarily due to lower income tax payments but also due to improved working capital performance.

第四季度，經營活動現金流為 3.324 億美元，而 2023 年為 1.644 億美元。現金流（即經營活動產生的現金流量減去資本支出）在 2024 年第四季為 3.034 億美元，而 2023 年為 1.242 億美元。第四季現金流增加主要是因為所得稅支付減少，同時也由於營運資本績效改善。

Capital expenditures were $29 million in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared with $40.2 million in 2023. Depreciation and amortization expense was $77.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared with $77.4 million in 2023. For the full-year 2024, free cash flow was $1.11 billion. We ended the year with just under $2 billion of net debt, that is approximately $2.65 billion of debt, less cash of approximately $650 million.

2024 年第四季的資本支出為 2,900 萬美元，而 2023 年為 4,020 萬美元。2024 年第四季的折舊和攤提費用為 7,710 萬美元，而 2023 年為 7,740 萬美元。2024 年全年自由現金流為 11.1 億美元。截至年底，我們的淨債務略低於 20 億美元，約 26.5 億美元的債務減去約 6.5 億美元的現金。

Now turning to our outlook, which includes the acquisition of Micropac but excludes the Excelitas carve-out, which is not yet closed. Management currently believes that GAAP earnings per share in the fourth quarter of 2025 will be in the range of $3.90 to $4.04 per share, with non-GAAP earnings per share in the range of $4.80 to $4.90. And for the full-year 2025, we believe that GAAP earnings per share will be in the range of $17.70 to $18.20, with non-GAAP earnings per share in the range of $20.10 to $21.50 (sic - see Earnings Release, page 4, "$21.10 to $21.50").

現在談談我們的展望，其中包括對 Micropac 的收購，但不包括尚未完成的 Excelitas 剝離。管理層目前認為，2025 年第四季的 GAAP 每股盈餘將在 3.90 美元至 4.04 美元之間，非 GAAP 每股盈餘將在 4.80 美元至 4.90 美元之間。對於 2025 年全年，我們認為 GAAP 每股收益將在 17.70 美元至 18.20 美元之間，非 GAAP 每股收益將在 20.10 美元至 21.50 美元之間（原文如此 - 請參閱收益報告第 4 頁，“ “ 21.10美元至21.50美元」。

I will now pass the call back to Robert.

我現在將把電話轉回給羅伯特。

Thank you, Steve. We would now like to take your questions. Paul, if you're ready to proceed with the questions and answers, please go ahead.

謝謝你，史蒂夫。我們現在想回答你們的問題。保羅，如果你準備好繼續提問和回答，請繼續。

(Operator Instructions) Noah Poponak, Goldman Sachs.

（操作員指示）諾亞·波波納克（Noah Poponak），高盛。

Hey, good morning, everyone.

嘿，大家早安。

Good morning, Noah.

早上好，諾亞。

Robert, you referenced 4% growth top line in the 2025 guidance. Is that 3% organic and a point from Micropac, or is that 4% organic?

羅伯特，您提到了 2025 年指引中的 4% 的成長目標。這是 3% 的有機物和 Micropac 的觀點嗎，還是 4% 的有機物？

No, what I mentioned is, as you said, a little over 4%, 3.2% organic and about 1% through acquisitions. Acquisitions include Micropac, Noah, but they also include parts of Valeport, which we acquired for our Marine businesses, and a part of Adimec that we acquired earlier in the year for the Digital Imaging. It does add up to about 1.1%, so 1% -- total is 4.2%, yes.

不，正如您所說，我提到的成長略高於 4%，其中有機成長 3.2%，透過收購實現的成長約 1%。收購包括 Micropac、Noah，但也包括我們為海洋業務收購的 Valeport 的部分業務，以及今年稍早為數位成像業務收購的 Adimec 的部分業務。它確實加起來約為 1.1%，所以 1%——總計是 4.2%，是的。

Okay. And if Excelitas closes on schedule, can you talk about what that adds in revenue, EBITDA earnings to the year?

好的。如果 Excelitas 按計劃完成交易，您能談談這會為今年帶來多少收入和 EBITDA 收益嗎？

Yes, I think it depends on when it closes, as you can appreciate. But I'm going to say about $15 million a month, Noah.

是的，我認為這取決於它什麼時候關閉，正如你所理解的。但我要說的是大約每月 1500 萬美元，諾亞。

Okay, great. And then maybe if you could just talk about the 3% -- or slightly over 3% organic assumption, I mean, we've had this discussion for a few quarters now of your short cycle versus your long cycle. I guess, in the release, it sounded -- it looked like you referenced kind of long cycle, still strong. It looked like you were saying short cycle, better.

好的，太好了。然後，如果您可以談談 3% — — 或略高於 3% 的有機假設，我的意思是，我們已經討論了幾個季度的短週期與長週期。我想，在發布會上，聽起來——看起來你提到的是一種長週期，而且仍然強勁。看起來你是說短週期比較好。

Hard to tell how much better. All the leading indicators there still look a little kind of better but a moving target. So what are you seeing in those businesses in machine vision and instrumentation, and how did you go about deciding what kind of recovery to assume in the guidance in those businesses?

很難說究竟好多少。所有領先指標看起來仍然略有好轉，但目標仍在移動。那麼您在機器視覺和儀器儀表領域的業務中看到了什麼？

Okay. So let me start with -- if I may, I'll do it by segment, which is -- should make it clear. On an organic growth basis, as you and I agree, our target is about 3.2%. If you go to instruments, which includes Marine, Environmental, and Test and Measurement, we expect all three of those subsegments to grow with a combined organic growth of 3.8%.

好的。因此，讓我先 — — 如果可以的話，我將分部分進行，這樣 — — 應該會講清楚。在有機成長的基礎上，正如您和我所同意的，我們的目標是約為 3.2%。如果您查看包括海洋、環境以及測試和測量的儀器，我們預計所有這三個子領域的綜合有機成長率將達到 3.8%。

In Digital Imaging, we believe the total Digital Imaging organically will grow just under 3%, maybe 2.8%. Aerospace and Defense, right now we're targeting it at 4%. But once you include that Micropac acquisition, which is closed, that will then jump up to 8%. Engineered Systems, we assume it will grow about 2.3% organically. So that kind of is the summary of the segments and the growth. So in other words, Noah, we expect everything to grow organically in the lower single to mid-single digits.

在數位成像領域，我們相信整體數位成像的有機成長率將略低於 3%，大概是 2.8%。航空航太和國防，目前我們的目標是 4%。但一旦算上已經完成的 Micropac 收購案，這一比例將躍升至 8%。對於 Engineered Systems，我們預期其有機成長率約為 2.3%。這就是各個部分和成長的總結。換句話說，諾亞，我們預計一切都將以低個位數到中等個位數的有機速度成長。

Okay. I appreciate all that detail. Thank you.

好的。我很欣賞這些細節。謝謝。

For sure, Noah.

當然，諾亞。

[Greg] Konrad, Jefferies.

[格雷格]康拉德，傑富瑞。

Good morning.

早安.

Good morning, Greg.

早安，格雷格。

Yes, I don't know what they called me up front. But maybe just starting with the Digital Imaging outlook, I mean, a lot to unpack in the quarter, and you have both short cycle and FLIR. Can you maybe just put a finer point on kind of last year into next year, how you're thinking about vision, what you're seeing out of FLIR defense and maybe stuff like healthcare that was a little bit weaker in 2024, how you're thinking about that recovery?

是的，我不知道他們前面叫我什麼。但也許只是從數位成像前景開始，我的意思是，本季有很多事情需要解開，而且你既有短週期也有 FLIR。您能否更詳細地談談去年和明年的情況，您對願景的看法，您對 FLIR 防禦的看法，以及 2024 年醫療保健等略顯疲軟的東西的看法，您如何看待正在考慮恢復嗎？

Yes. Let me do '24 and then '25, and I'll break it up between FLIR and what we call our historical Digital Imaging before FLIR. In '24 over '23, we had a little growth in FLIR overall. Primarily, it was held back by a small business that we have which deals with mid-market two-dimensional area scan, which is kind of a machine vision business. That declined about $40 million.

是的。讓我先講'24，然後講'25，然後我會將其分為 FLIR 和我們所說的 FLIR 之前的歷史數位成像。與 23 年相比，24 年我們的 FLIR 整體上略有成長。主要是，它受到我們一家小型企業的阻礙，這家企業涉及中端市場二維區域掃描，這是一種機器視覺業務。這一數字下降了約 4,000 萬美元。

So if you take that out, the rest of FLIR actually increased about $70 million year over year. And it increased in almost all areas. It increased in our cores, which we sell; microvolumeters; as well as indium antimonide cores. It increased in tomography, both infrared instruments and cameras, and our Raymarine businesses kind of held steady. They were down a little bit, but not much. So overall, FLIR increased. Defense in FLIR did really well, and it increased about 9%, and all of its various subsegments did well.

因此，如果去掉這部分費用，FLIR 的其餘部分實際上比去年同期增加了約 7,000 萬美元。並且幾乎所有地區的降雨量都有所增加。我們銷售的核心產品有成長；微量容量儀；以及銻化銦芯。紅外線儀器和相機等斷層掃描業務有所成長，而我們的 Raymarine 業務則保持穩定。他們的情緒略有下降，但下降幅度不大。因此總體而言，FLIR 有所增加。FLIR 的防禦性能確實非常出色，增幅達到約 9%，其各個子細分市場都表現良好。

So FLIR, now going to '25, we're assuming about a 2.8% to 3% overall increase because we're still a little cautious about the commercial businesses. But -- forgive me, FLIR by itself will increase about 3.9%, but we're still a little cautious about the camera businesses. But we think the defense businesses, there are very, very healthy because we have really good backlog.

因此，對於 FLIR 來說，到 25 年，我們預計整體成長率約為 2.8% 至 3%，因為我們對商業業務仍持謹慎態度。但是——請原諒我，FLIR 本身將增加約 3.9%，但我們對相機業務仍持謹慎態度。但我們認為國防業務非常非常健康，因為我們有非常充足的積壓訂單。

If you go to what we call our traditional Digital Imaging before FLIR, we think the growth is going to be modest. Overall growth would be about 3.1%, but some of that comes from the Adimec acquisition that we did in midyear. So if you subtract that out, it's closer to 1.2%. So when you add those two up, its overall growth, both through acquisitions and organic for the total Digital Imaging, would be about 3.6%.

如果您看一下我們在 FLIR 之前所說的傳統數位成像，我們認為成長將會很溫和。整體成長率約為 3.1%，但部分成長來自於我們在年中對 Adimec 的收購。所以，如果減去這個數字，它就更接近 1.2%。因此，當你將這兩者加在一起時，其整體成長率（包括透過收購和整個數位成像的有機成長）將達到 3.6% 左右。

We have -- part of the reason we're being a little cautious, especially in the commercial Digital Imaging, especially the legacy part, is because while we had a little bit of a tailwind this quarter from foreign exchange, we think we're going to have headwind right now with the dollar being strong, about 1.3% going into 2025. And if that doesn't change, of course, that's going to affect us. So we're kind of programming it into our projections as we go forward. I hope that answered your question, Greg.

我們之所以有點謹慎，特別是在商業數位成像領域，特別是傳統領域，部分原因是因為雖然本季外匯對我們有一定的推動作用，但我們認為由於美元走強，目前將面臨阻力，到2025 年將成長約1.3%。如果這種情況不改變，當然就會影響到我們。因此，我們會將其納入我們未來的預測中。我希望這回答了你的問題，格雷格。

Yes, that's good, and then maybe a follow up. I mean, implied EPS, it seems like you have good margin expansion into 2025. I think in the past, you've maybe talked about a mix of some of that short-cycle markets, which it doesn't seem like you're embedding any big increases in 2025. Can you maybe just level set the margin outlook and maybe the drivers, just given -- it doesn't seem like mix would be that much of a tailwind given volume expectations.

是的，這很好，然後可能會有後續行動。我的意思是，隱含每股盈餘似乎顯示到 2025 年你的利潤率將大幅擴張。我認為，在過去，您可能談論過一些短週期市場的組合，但看起來 2025 年不會出現任何大幅成長。您能否只是設定利潤率前景和驅動因素，只是考慮到——考慮到銷售預期，混合似乎不會帶來太大的順風。

Yes, let me go to the overall company. We finished the year at 22%. We expect that to grow by 80 basis points. Now if you look at the segments, it will be more like 70 basis points. So it will go from what is now 23.4% for the full-year 2024 to 24.1% in 2025. So there's growth there. If you go to the larger business, which is obviously segment, the Digital Imaging, we finished the year from a segment non-GAAP operating margin at 22.2% for the year.

是啊，我去總公司一趟。我們以 22% 的成績結束了這一年度。我們預計該數字將成長 80 個基點。現在，如果你看各個部分，它將更像是 70 個基點。因此，到 2025 年，這一比例將從目前的 2024 年全年的 23.4% 上升至 24.1%。因此那裡有增長。如果你看一下更大的業務，這顯然是一個細分市場，即數位成像業務，我們今年的非 GAAP 營業利潤率為 22.2%。

We think we'll get about 80 basis points, which is significant. Next year, maybe a little less, but between 70 and 80 basis points. Some of the other segments we've had very strong margin growth since 2022. For example, in Instruments, our margins between '22 and '24 grew 310 basis points. So we're being a little more cautious. Maybe it will grow in 2025, 45 basis points.

我們認為我們將獲得大約 80 個基點，這是很重要的。明年可能會少一點，但在 70 到 80 個基點之間。自 2022 年以來，我們的其他一些部門的利潤率也實現了非常強勁的成長。例如，在工具方面，我們的利潤率在'22年至'24年之間增長了310個基點。因此我們要更加謹慎一些。也許到2025年會成長45個基點。

And the other thing is that when you go to Aerospace and Defense, where we've had really excellent growth also of 150 basis points in the last two years, we're a little cautious going into 2025, primarily because the Micropac acquisition is not going to initially have the kinds of margins that we enjoy there, which were 28.6%. in 2024. So we're dialing in maybe 14, 15 basis points increase because of the Micropac effect. Of course, once that thing is tucked in properly, you'll start enjoying margin expansion like all of our acquisitions do. I hope that answered your question, Greg.

另一件事是，當你進入航空航太和國防領域時，我們在過去兩年中也實現了 150 個基點的出色增長，我們對 2025 年有些謹慎，主要是因為收購 Micropac 並不我們最初享有的利潤率為28.6%。在2024年。因此，由於 Micropac 效應，我們可能會預期增加 14 到 15 個基點。當然，一旦這件事被正確地塞進去，你就會開始享受利潤率的擴大，就像我們所有的收購一樣。我希望這回答了你的問題，格雷格。

That's perfect. Thank you.

那很完美。謝謝。

For sure.

一定。

Andrew Buscaglia, BNP.

英國國家黨安德魯‧布斯卡利亞 (Andrew Buscaglia)

Hey, good morning, guys.

嘿，大家早安。

Good morning, Andrew.

早安，安德魯。

I was just trying to understand, with 2025, so you're talking about 3.2% organic. Just to be clear, that would include some FX in that organic number, and then do you assume some -- and how much a short cycle of recovery do you assume as the year goes on? Can you talk a little bit about the cadence of your estimate?

我只是想知道，到 2025 年，您說的有機率是 3.2%。需要明確的是，這將包括一些外匯在內，然後您是否假設一些——隨著時間的推移，您認為短期復甦週期會有多大？可以稍微談談你估計的節奏嗎？

Yes. First, yes, we do account headwind from FX. As I mentioned, at the present time, it's 1.3%. So we dialed that in because we don't know what's going to happen, obviously. Because this year, it was not bad. This year, actually, FX was basically 20-basis-points tailwind. So we have a big headwind. So that's that.

是的。首先，是的，我們確實面臨來自外匯的逆風。正如我所提到的，目前這一比例是 1.3%。所以我們撥了電話，因為顯然我們不知道會發生什麼事。因為今年的狀況還不錯。事實上，今年外匯基本上是20個基點的順風。所以我們面臨著巨大的阻力。就是這樣。

The second part of your question was short cycle. We think that most of our short-cycle businesses should be growing but modestly because of FX partially, like Test and Measurement and Environmental in the low single digits. And as I mentioned before, while we think FLIR will grow about 3.9% for the year, a lot of that comes from Defense. The non-Defense part will grow a little less. And then, of course, as I mentioned, our historical Digital Imaging would grow modestly.

你問題的第二部分是短週期。我們認為，我們的大多數短週期業務應該會成長，但由於部分外匯原因，成長幅度會很小，例如測試和測量以及環境業務的增幅都低於個位數。正如我之前提到的，雖然我們認為 FLIR 今年的成長幅度將達到 3.9% 左右，但其中很大一部分來自國防。非國防部分的成長會稍微少一些。然後，當然，正如我所提到的，我們的歷史數位成像將會適度成長。

Okay. And on the Excelitas acquisition, what do you -- should we assume some accretion to non-GAAP earnings in '25 once that's closed?

好的。關於 Excelitas 收購案，您認為一旦收購完成，我們是否應該假設 25 年非 GAAP 收益會增加？

Yes, I think -- well, it depends on when it's closed. But I think if I look at the full year, as I answered Noah's question, we think we'll bring in about $15 million a month in revenue. And we think, for the full year, if we were to have it for a full year, it should give us about $0.15 to $0.20 of accretion. Again, it's just talking in an acquisition, not doing a whole bunch of things in margin expansion, which we always do in subsequent years.

是的，我認為——嗯，這取決於它什麼時候關閉。但我認為，如果從全年來看，正如我回答諾亞的問題時所說，我們認為我們每個月的收入將達到約 1500 萬美元。我們認為，就全年而言，如果我們要將其用於全年，它應該會為我們帶來約 0.15 美元到 0.20 美元的增值。再說一遍，這只是談論收購，而不是為了擴大利潤而做大量的事情，而這在隨後的幾年裡我們總是會這麼做。

Got it. Okay, thanks, Robert.

知道了。好的，謝謝，羅伯特。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Damian Karas, UBS.

瑞銀的 Damian Karas。

Hey, good morning, everyone.

嘿，大家早安。

Good morning, Damian.

早安，達米安。

Good morning. Appreciate all of the color you've provided. I was wondering if you could maybe just give us a little bit better sense for the order trends that you've been seeing. Are there any areas that have maybe picked up more meaningfully that you had expected three months ago or vice versa?

早安.感謝您提供的所有顏色。我想知道您是否可以讓我們對您所看到的訂單趨勢有更深入的了解。有哪些領域的成長可能比您三個月前的預期更顯著，反之亦然？

Yes, Damian, let me start with book to bill, and I'll go to the most recent quarter. We just finished Q4. Overall, book to bill for the company is about 1.04, so it's positive, but it varies between the various businesses. In Instruments, for example, book to bill is 1.12, which is pretty high for us. Marine business is leading that by 1.23. And then Environmental is positive, 1.09.

是的，達米安，讓我先從訂單出貨量開始，然後再講到最近一個季度。我們剛結束第四季。總體而言，該公司的訂單出貨比約為 1.04，因此為正值，但不同業務之間的比率有所不同。以儀器儀表為例，訂單出貨比為 1.12，對我們來說相當高。海運業務領先 1.23。環境值為正，為 1.09。

We're a little cautious on T&M. We think it's just a little below 1, maybe 0.95, 0.99 for the whole year. Digital Imaging, FLIR is positive at 1.03. Our historical imaging is slightly below 1 at 0.97. AD&E is 0.96, but we have to take into consideration the orders. They a little lumpy, as they are in our engineered system, which is at 1.16. So overall, we think we have positive trends in our book to bill.

我們對 T&M 有點謹慎。我們認為全年略低於 1，可能是 0.95、0.99。數位成像，FLIR 為正值 1.03。我們的歷史成像略低於 1，為 0.97。 AD&E 為 0.96，但我們必須考慮訂單。它們有點塊狀，因為它們在我們的工程系統中，即 1.16。因此總體而言，我們認為我們的訂單出貨比呈現正面的趨勢。

Now if you go to some of our commercial -- where we have the headwind, and we've had it last year, is in very specific areas of Digital Imaging, as Edwin mentioned, primarily in machine vision and machine sensors. Machine vision is recovering, though it's recovering slowly, but it is recovering. We've had order increases throughout the year. Machine sensors, where we make the detectors for other folks, that always lags behind six to nine months. We think that recovery will be closer to the second half of 2025. I hope that answers the question.

現在，如果你去看我們的一些商業產品——我們面臨的阻力，以及去年面臨的阻力，就是在數位成像的一些特定領域，正如埃德溫所提到的，主要是在機器視覺和機器感測器領域。機器視覺正在恢復，雖然恢復得很慢，但正在恢復。我們的訂單量全年都在增加。機器感測器（我們為其他人製造的探測器）總是滯後六到九個月。我們認為復甦將接近 2025 年下半年。我希望這能回答這個問題。

Yes, that's very helpful. Thank you. And my second question, so obviously, quite a bit has changed since last quarter with an election and a new administration that's come in. Could you maybe give us updated thinking about potential policy implications? There's the question of tariffs in China and Mexico, and the US government is certainly an important customer of yours, and there's this new Department of Government Efficiency. So could you maybe share your thoughts on how you're thinking about all of that and what it might mean for Teledyne?

是的，這很有幫助。謝謝。我的第二個問題是，顯然，自上個季度以來，隨著選舉和新政府的成立，很多事情都改變了。您能否提供我們關於潛在政策影響的最新想法？這是中國和墨西哥的關稅問題，美國政府當然也是你們的重要客戶，而且還有新成立的政府效率部。那麼您能否分享一下您對這一切的看法以及這對 Teledyne 意味著什麼？

Please remember that I am not any more knowledgeable than anybody else, but I can relate it to our businesses. Let's talk about tariffs first. If you look back a couple of years, at 2022, where we had all these shortages, right, coming out of COVID, we had experienced peak supply chain challenges. That cost us about $100 million in 2022. What did we do? We increased prices, not only in some of our businesses that we could, but also we improved margins. So we made up for it between those two and then our own efficiencies.

請記住，我並不比其他人更了解，但我可以將其與我們的業務聯繫起來。我們先來談談關稅。如果回顧一下幾年前的情況，例如 2022 年，我們面臨著各種各樣的短缺，在擺脫新冠疫情之後，我們經歷了供應鏈高峰挑戰。這在 2022 年花費了我們約 1 億美元。我們做了什麼？我們不僅提高了部分業務的價格，也提高了利潤率。因此，我們在兩者之間進行了彌補，並提高了自己的效率。

The way the tariffs are laid out, at least initially in Canada, Mexico, China, we think the impact of those would be less than what we experienced in 2022, maybe half as much. So we think we can deal with that. The other thing is the sophistication of the tariffs. We have to yet dive into it because we make products in different countries. We make products in Canada that then we finish off in the US. Sometimes we export, sometimes it's for domestic consumption, so the value add changes. But having said all of that, we think we can deal with that.

我們認為，至少最初在加拿大、墨西哥和中國徵收關稅的方式，其影響將低於我們在 2022 年經歷的影響，可能只有後者的一半。因此我們認為我們可以解決這個問題。另一件事是關稅的複雜化。由於我們在不同的國家生產產品，因此我們必須深入研究這個問題。我們在加拿大生產產品，然後在美國完成成品。有時我們出口，有時用於國內消費，因此附加價值會改變。但話雖如此，我們認為我們可以解決這個問題。

In terms of the DOGE, efficiency, I think it would favor us, partially because, compared to others -- partially because most of our defense businesses, as an example, is purchase order businesses with products that we have rather than protracted appropriations. We also are in unmanned platforms. If you take our unmanned air vehicles, ground vehicles, and underwater vehicles, which we have all three, it's almost $400 million plus. Our platforms are unmanned. A lot of our sensors go on those versus manned platforms. And a lot of our products are also standard products rather than very highly customized solutions. So I think we will do okay.

就DOGE 效率而言，我認為這對我們有利，部分原因是與其他人相比——部分原因是我們的大多數國防業務，例如，是採購訂單業務，涉及我們擁有的產品，而不是長期撥款。我們也涉足無人平台。如果算上我們的無人駕駛飛行器、地面飛行器和水下飛行器（我們三種都有），總價值將近 4 億多美元。我們的平台是無人的。我們的許多感測器都安裝在這些平台上，而不是載人平台上。而且我們的許多產品也是標準產品，而不是高度客製化的解決方案。所以我認為我們會做得很好。

That makes sense. Appreciate all the color.

這很有道理。欣賞所有的色彩。

For sure. Thank you.

一定。謝謝。

Jordan Lyonnais, Bank of America.

美國銀行的喬丹·里昂 (Jordan Lyonnais)。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

Good morning, Jordan.

早上好，喬丹。

On the Defense outlook, the 4% organic growth, how much of that is conservative? Just when we look at outlays being up 26% from FY23 to '24, I would expect the momentum to continue. So are there programs that are ending, or it's just a mixed bag?

就國防前景而言，4%的有機成長率有多少是保守的？當我們看到2023財年至2024財年的支出成長了26%時，我預計這種勢頭將會持續下去。那麼，是否有一些項目即將結束，或者只是好壞參半？

Well, I don't know if I fit the 4% number. As I mentioned in FLIR, we think it will be higher than that, our growth. Approximately, our FLIR defense businesses in Q4 grew almost 9%. We expect it next year to grow another 6%. So that's not as conservative. Now the problem is that, really, we don't know what's going to happen to the various programs yet. But as I mentioned, If you take the fields that we're in, which are the unmanned systems primarily, and then of course electronic warfare, and then of course observations using the EOIR, those favor us by and large, regardless of which programs go forward. So I'm pretty bullish about the defense part of our businesses.

嗯，我不知道我是否符合 4% 這個數字。正如我在 FLIR 中提到的那樣，我們認為我們的成長將高於這個水平。大約而言，我們的 FLIR 國防業務在第四季度成長了近 9%。我們預計明年還將成長 6%。所以這沒那麼保守。現在的問題是，我們實際上還不知道各個專案會發生什麼情況。但正如我所提到的，如果你考慮我們所處的領域，主要是無人系統，然後當然是電子戰，然後當然是使用 EOIR 進行觀察，這些對我們總體上是有利的，無論哪些項目前進。所以我對我們的業務的國防部部分非常樂觀。

Got it. Okay. Thank you so much.

知道了。好的。太感謝了。

For sure, Jordan.

當然，喬丹。

James Ricchiuti, Needham & Company.

詹姆斯‧里基烏蒂 (James Ricchiuti)，Needham & Company。

Hi, thanks. Good morning. Hey, Robert, are you at all surprised by the slow recovery in that legacy Digital Imaging business?

嗨，謝謝。早安.嘿，羅伯特，你對於傳統數位成像業務的緩慢復甦感到驚訝嗎？

Yes, to be very honest, I am. Part of it is, really, people are very cautious in building up inventory, especially our distributors. Partially, it's the China effect, both in terms of their imports, even though we don't export as a total company that much to China. We're doing Digital Imaging. And partially because they are building their own systems and their own sensors.

是的，說實話，我是。部分原因在於，人們在增加庫存時確實非常謹慎，尤其是我們的經銷商。部分原因是中國效應，包括進口方面，儘管我們整個公司對中國的出口並不多。我們從事數位成像工作。部分原因是他們正在建造自己的系統和感測器。

But by and large, Jim, these are short-cycle businesses. They can turn on two, three, four weeks. So we don't have a lot of visibility. I can only talk about what happened. It's very hard to predict where things are going. But overall, if you look at the book to bill, even though when your billing is low, book to bill looks healthy, we've been enjoying book to bill -- positive book to bill in our camera businesses for the last three quarters.

但總的來說，吉姆，這些都是短週期業務。它們可以運作兩週、三週、四周。因此我們的可見度不高。我只能談論已經發生的事情。很難預測事情會如何發展。但總體而言，如果您看一下訂單出貨比，即使您的出貨量較低，訂單出貨比看起來也很健康，過去三個季度，我們的相機業務一直保持著積極的訂單出貨比。

So having said all of that, yes, I was surprised on why it's not recovering as fast as we should. It's partly because other people are conservative in building inventory, as are our distributors. And the last question I'll add to is some of our customers are trying to lower their prices that they pay us. And frankly, we won't take those orders because the business is what the business is, and we're not going to lose margin just to get revenue.

所以說了這麼多，是的，我很驚訝為什麼它沒有像我們應該的那樣快速恢復。部分原因是其他人在建立庫存方面持保守態度，我們的分銷商也是如此。我要補充的最後一個問題是，我們的一些客戶正在試圖降低支付給我們的價格。坦白說，我們不會接受這些訂單，因為業務就是業務，我們不會為了獲得收入而損失利潤。

Yes, that's helpful. And it appears that within that commercial business, and I think you indicated this, there appears to be some conservatism embedded in the full-year outlook. If you were to look at areas that have the potential to maybe do a little better, would you say it would be some of the instrumentation business or potentially in the Digital Imaging business, maybe things starting to come back as we get through some of this destocking that people have been talking about for a while now?

是的，這很有幫助。而且看起來，在商業業務中，我認為您已經指出了這一點，全年前景中似乎存在一些保守主義。如果你要看看哪些領域可能會做得更好，你會說是一些儀器儀表業務還是潛在的數位成像業務，也許當我們度過一些難關後，事情會開始好轉。庫存問題？

Yes. I think I would start with instrumentation. Some of the conservative is instrumentation, and primarily in Test and Measurement. We're assuming the growth there is going to be 2.5% or so, but it could be a lot more, because it's been doing better and better as the year's gone on in 2024. In Digital Imaging, frankly, we have a slew of new products going out, which I think will be much more competitive. So yes, we are being conservative.

是的。我認為我應該從儀器開始。一些保守派是儀器儀表，主要在測試和測量領域。我們假設那裡的成長率將在 2.5% 左右，但可能會更高，因為隨著 2024 年的到來，那裡的表現會越來越好。坦白說，在數位成像領域，我們推出了一系列新產品，我認為這將更具競爭力。是的，我們是保守的。

Having said that, at this time, it's prudent to be conservative. But we've always been -- as you know, we've always been conservative in everything that we do or say. You have to take that into consideration.

話雖如此，但此時採取保守態度是明智之舉。但正如你所知，我們所做的或所說的一切都是保守的。你必須考慮到這一點。

Understood. Thanks a lot.

明白了。多謝。

For sure.

一定。

Joe Giordano, TD Cowen.

喬·吉奧達諾（Joe Giordano），TD Cowen。

(technical difficulty) for the year.

（技術難度）。

Hi, Joe. I think you got cut off the first sentence. I didn't get it.

嗨，喬。我覺得你的第一句話就被打斷了。我沒明白。

Hey. I'm just asking about a free cash flow outlook for the year.

嘿。我只是問今年的自由現金流前景。

Yes. Just to reiterate, I like [beating] this one because we did so well. We got free cash flow of $1.11 billion as Steve mentioned. We think it'll be over $1 billion. If we hit $1 billion again, I'll be happy. We had some lower taxes, but we also enjoyed some improvement in our working capital and inventory. We had some advance payments on some programs. Those may not happen, but having said all of that, I think $1 billion is a good number.

是的。我重申一下，我喜歡贏得這場比賽，因為我們表現得很好。正如史蒂夫所提到的，我們獲得了 11.1 億美元的自由現金流。我們認為這個數字將超過 10 億美元。如果我們再次達到 10 億美元，我會很高興。我們的稅率有所降低，但我們的營運資金和庫存也有一些改善。我們對一些項目進行了預付款。這些可能不會發生，但話雖如此，我認為 10 億美元是一個不錯的數字。

I know this question has been asked on other calls and you've been consistent with your answers, but it's a question we get from investors fairly often who want to look at Teledyne. But given the free cash flow generation you have and you've shown the ability to be a bit more flexible with buybacks lately, is the dividend of it all interesting to you guys to bring in a new class of investors who can't currently invest in the shares?

我知道這個問題在其他電話會議上也被問過，而您的回答也一直保持一致，但這是我們經常從想要關注 Teledyne 的投資者那裡得到的問題。但考慮到你們擁有的自由現金流，以及你們最近表現出的回購彈性，你們是否對這一切的紅利感興趣，可以吸引一群目前無法投資的新投資者？

That's a tough one. Just a little dividend I don't think will do us a lot of good, although I know companies that do that. Right now, I think we're better off if we can use our money to buy companies, especially since our acquisition pipeline seems to be richer than it has been. Having said that, when our stock was what we thought undervalued, we bought back stock, which is another way of returning cash to the investors.

這是一個難題。我認為，僅僅少量的紅利不會為我們帶來多大的好處，儘管我知道有些公司是這樣做的。現在，我認為如果我們可以用我們的錢來收購公司，我們會更好，特別是因為我們的收購管道似乎比以前更豐富。話雖如此，當我們認為我們的股票被低估時，我們就會回購股票，這是向投資者返還現金的另一種方式。

Yes, thank you. For what it's worth, from what we're hearing, people will be fine with a small dividend if there's a view that it could get somewhat larger over time. But that's just the feedback we're getting. So thanks, guys.

是的，謝謝。不管怎樣，從我們所聽到的消息來看，如果人們認為隨著時間的推移，股息可能會逐漸增加，那麼他們就會對小額股息感到滿意。但這只是我們得到的回饋。所以謝謝你們。

Thank you for that input. Thank you.

感謝您的意見。謝謝。

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I would like to hand the floor back over to Jason VanWees for any closing comments.

謝謝。目前沒有其他問題。我想將發言權交還給 Jason VanWees，請他發表最後評論。

Again, thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning. If you have follow-up questions, please feel free to call me at the number on the earnings release. And again, a replay of this is available via webcast and via dial-in. Thank you, operator. If you could conclude the call, we'd appreciate it. Thanks, Paul. Bye.

再次感謝大家今天早上加入我們。如果您有後續問題，請隨時撥打收益報告中的電話號碼與我聯絡。再次強調，您可以透過網路直播和電話撥入重播該內容。謝謝您，接線生。如果您能結束通話，我們將不勝感激。謝謝，保羅。再見。

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation

今天的會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開您的線路。感謝您的參與