Teledyne Technologies Inc (TDY) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, good morning. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Teledyne Fourth Quarter Earnings Call.

    女士們、先生們,早安。謝謝你的支持。歡迎參加 Teledyne 第四季財報電話會議。

  • (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded.

    (操作員指示)提醒一下,今天的會議正在錄製中。

  • At this time, it's my pleasure to turn the conference over to our host, Mr. Jason VanWees. Please go ahead.

    現在,我很高興將會議交給我們的房東 Jason VanWees 先生。請繼續。

  • Jason VanWees - Vice Chairman

    Jason VanWees - Vice Chairman

  • Thanks, Tom, and thanks, everyone. This is Jason VanWees, Vice Chairman. I would like to welcome everyone to Teledyne's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2013 (sic) [2023] Earnings Release Conference Call. We released our earnings earlier this morning.

    謝謝湯姆,謝謝大家。我是傑森‧範韋斯,副主席。我謹歡迎大家參加 Teledyne 2013 年第四季和全年(原文如此)[2023] 收益發布電話會議。我們今天早上早些時候發布了財報。

  • Joining me today are Teledyne's Executive Chairman, Robert Mehrabian and our new but familiar management team, CEO, Edwin Roks, President and COO; George Bobb, Senior Vice President and CFO, Steve Blackwood, and also Melanie Cibik, EVP and General Counsel, Chief Compliance Officer and Secretary. After remarks by Robert, Edwin, George and Steve, we will ask for your questions.

    今天加入我的有 Teledyne 執行主席 Robert Mehrabian 和我們熟悉的新管理團隊、執行長、總裁兼營運長 Edwin Roks;資深副總裁兼財務長 George Bobb、Steve Blackwood 以及執行副總裁兼總法律顧問、首席合規官兼秘書 Melanie Cibik。在羅伯特、埃德溫、喬治和史蒂夫發言後,我們將詢問您的問題。

  • Of course, so before we get started, our attorneys have reminded me to tell you that all forward-looking statements made this morning are subject to various assumptions, risks and caveats as noted in the earnings release and our periodic SEC filings. And of course, actual results may differ materially. In order to avoid potential selective disclosures, this call is simultaneously being webcast and a replay, both via webcast and dial-in, will be available for approximately 1 month.

    當然,在我們開始之前,我們的律師提醒我告訴您,今天早上發表的所有前瞻性陳述都受到收益發布和我們定期向 SEC 提交的文件中指出的各種假設、風險和警告的影響。當然,實際結果可能存在重大差異。為了避免潛在的選擇性揭露,本次電話會議將同時進行網路廣播,並透過網路廣播和撥入方式進行重播,時間約為 1 個月。

  • Here is Robert.

    這是羅伯特.

  • Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

    Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

  • Thank you, Jason, and good morning, and thank you for joining our earnings call. In the fourth quarter, we achieved all-time record sales and GAAP and non-GAAP earnings per share. Sales increased primarily due to the performance of our marine, medical and aerospace businesses, which were more than able to compensate for the previously announced headwind in the industrial automation and laboratory instrumentation market.

    謝謝傑森,早安,謝謝您參加我們的財報電話會議。第四季度,我們的銷售額以及公認會計準則和非公認會計準則每股收益均創歷史新高。銷售額的成長主要得益於我們的船舶、醫療和航空航太業務的業績,這些業務足以彌補先前宣布的工業自動化和實驗室儀器市場的不利因素。

  • Furthermore, overall, record orders exceeded sales in every business segment but were particularly strong in our marine and defense businesses. Leverage declined further to 1.9x and our balance sheet remains healthy. Finally, we continue to acquire complementary businesses as shown by the acquisition of zeno Networks in the fourth quarter.

    此外,總體而言,創紀錄的訂單超過了每個業務部門的銷售額,但我們的海洋和國防業務尤其強勁。槓桿率進一步下降至 1.9 倍,我們的資產負債表保持健康。最後,我們持續收購互補業務,如第四季收購 Zeno Networks 所示。

  • Compared with last year, fourth quarter and full year non-GAAP operating margin increased 27 and 57 basis points, respectively. Our broad-based strength in orders was encouraging, especially in the uncertain global macro environment today. Nevertheless, it's worth noting that most of the increase in orders was in our backlog-driven longer-cycle businesses. So converting the orders to sales will take a little time.

    與去年同期相比,第四季和全年非 GAAP 營運利潤率分別成長 27 和 57 個基點。我們廣泛的訂單實力令人鼓舞,特別是在當今不確定的全球宏觀環境下。儘管如此,值得注意的是,訂單的成長大部分來自於積壓驅動的長週期業務。因此,將訂單轉化為銷售需要一點時間。

  • In terms of 2024 outlook, we, therefore, think the quarterly sales and earnings ramp will be a bit greater than in recent years. So while we see annual 2024 sales growth of about 4%, we believe that typically seasonally low first quarter will be slightly under $1.4 billion or roughly flat with last year.

    因此,就 2024 年前景而言,我們認為季度銷售額和獲利增幅將略高於近年來。因此,雖然我們預計 2024 年銷售額將成長約 4%,但我們認為,通常季節性較低的第一季銷售額將略低於 14 億美元,或與去年大致持平。

  • I will now turn the call over to Edwin and George, who will further comment on the performance of our 4 business segments.

    我現在將電話轉給艾德溫和喬治,他們將進一步評論我們 4 個業務部門的表現。

  • Edwin Roks - CEO

    Edwin Roks - CEO

  • Thank you, Robert. This is Edwin and I will report on the Digital Imaging segment, which is 56% of Teledyne's portfolio. And like Teledyne as a whole, this segment is a mix of longer-cycle businesses such as defense, space and health care, combined with shorter cycle markets, including industrial automation, semiconductor inspection and infrared components and cameras for application ranging from factory condition monitoring and maritime navigation.

    謝謝你,羅伯特。我是 Edwin,我將報告數位成像領域,該領域佔 Teledyne 產品組合的 56%。與整個 Teledyne 一樣,該細分市場由國防、航太和醫療保健等較長週期業務與較短週期市場(包括工業自動化、半導體檢測以及用於工廠狀態監控等應用的紅外線組件和相機)相結合。和海上航行。

  • Fourth quarter 2023 sales was slightly lower compared to last year. Double-digit sales growth in each of x-ray products, FLIR surveillance systems and space-based infrared imaging detectors offset a significant year-over-year decline in sales of industrial imaging systems and Micro Electro Mechanical Systems or MEMS. Fourth quarter sales of unmanned systems were at the greatest level in 2023 but declined year-over-year due to a tough comparison.

    2023 年第四季銷售額與去年相比略有下降。 X 光產品、FLIR 監控系統和天基紅外線成像探測器的銷售額均實現兩位數增長,抵消了工業成像系統和微機電系統或 MEMS 銷售額同比大幅下降的影響。無人系統在第四季度的銷售額達到了 2023 年的最高水平,但由於嚴格的比較,同比有所下降。

  • For the second quarter in a row, the FLIR business collective fleet were positive contributors to overall segment margin. In addition, FLIR quarterly sales increased year-over-year and were at the highest level in the last 2 years.

    FLIR 業務集體機隊連續第二季為整體部門利潤率做出了積極貢獻。此外,FLIR季度銷售額較去年同期成長,創近兩年來最高水準。

  • George will now report on the other 3 segments, which will represent the remaining 44% of Teledyne.

    George 現在將報告其他 3 個部門,這將代表 Teledyne 剩餘的 44% 的股份。

  • George Bobb

    George Bobb

  • Thanks, Evan. The Instrumentation segment consists of our marine, test and measurement and environmental businesses, which contributed a little over 23% of sales. For the total segment, overall fourth quarter sales increased 2.8% versus last year. Sales of marine instruments increased 14.7% in the quarter, primarily due to strong offshore energy sales but also continued growth in global defense and ocean science markets.

    謝謝,埃文。儀器儀表部門由我們的船舶、測試和測量以及環境業務組成,貢獻了略高於 23% 的銷售額。就整個細分市場而言,第四季整體銷售額比去年成長了 2.8%。本季海洋儀器銷售額成長 14.7%,主要是由於海上能源銷售強勁,而且全球國防和海洋科學市場持續成長。

  • Sales of electronic test and measurement systems, which include oscilloscopes, digitizers and protocol analyzers were flat year-over-year. We continue to see some softness in sales of analyzers for electronic storage and data centers applications but this was largely offset by continued strong sales of oscilloscopes and a small amount of incremental sales from the Zeno acquisition. Sales of environmental instruments decreased 7.3% and with greater sales of air quality and gas and flame safety analyzers more than offset by lower sales of drug discovery and laboratory instruments.

    包括示波器、數位化儀和協議分析儀在內的電子測試和測量系統的銷售量較去年同期持平。我們繼續看到電子儲存和資料中心應用分析儀的銷售疲軟,但這在很大程度上被示波器的持續強勁銷售和收購 Zeno 帶來的少量增量銷售所抵消。環境儀器的銷售額下降了 7.3%,空氣品質、氣體和火焰安全分析儀銷售額的增加被藥物發現和實驗室儀器銷售額的下降所抵消。

  • Overall, Instrumentation segment operating profit increased over 14% in the fourth quarter with GAAP operating margin increasing 284 basis points to 27.1%, and 278 basis points on a non-GAAP basis to 28.1%, both all-time records for the segments.

    總體而言,第四季度儀器儀表部門的營業利潤增長了14% 以上,其中GAAP 營業利潤率增加了284 個基點,達到27.1%,非GAAP 營業利潤率增加了278 個基點,達到28.1%,均為該部門的歷史記錄。

  • In the Aerospace and Defense Electronics segment, which represents 13% of Teledyne sales, fourth quarter sales increased 3.4%, primarily driven by growth of commercial aerospace products. GAAP and non-GAAP segment operating profit decreased approximately 5% year-over-year primarily due to a tough comparison with last year's all-time record segment margin. For the Engineered Systems segment, which contributes 8% to overall sales, fourth quarter revenue decreased 3.8%. But operating profit increased with margin up 325 basis points.

    在佔 Teledyne 銷售額 13% 的航空航太和國防電子領域,第四季度銷售額成長了 3.4%,主要受到商業航空航太產品成長的推動。 GAAP 和非 GAAP 部門營業利潤年減約 5%,主要是由於與去年創紀錄的部門利潤率進行了嚴格比較。對於佔總銷售額 8% 的工程系統部門,第四季營收下降了 3.8%。但營業利潤增加,利潤率上升了 325 個基點。

  • I will now pass the call back to Robert.

    我現在將把電話轉回給羅伯特。

  • Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

    Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

  • Thank you, George. In conclusion, we were pleased with our record performance in 2023. In the near term, we will continue to focus on growth in those businesses with favorable markets while cutting costs and protecting margins in businesses, which are more challenged. And at the same time, we'll be acquiring and integrating complementary businesses. When certain markets like laboratory instrumentation, industrial automation or electronic test and measurement recover, we will keep our cost structure in check and benefit handsomely.

    謝謝你,喬治。總而言之,我們對 2023 年創紀錄的業績感到滿意。短期內,我們將繼續專注於市場有利的業務的成長,同時削減成本並保護面臨更大挑戰的業務的利潤率。同時,我們將收購並整合互補業務。當實驗室儀器、工業自動化或電子測試和測量等某些市場復甦時,我們將控製成本結構並獲得豐厚的收益。

  • But if there are global or macroeconomic shocks in 2024, we will do what we've done in the past, execute well, generate record cash flow and complete some of our base and potentially larger acquisitions.

    但如果 2024 年出現全球或宏觀經濟衝擊,我們將像過去一樣,執行良好,產生創紀錄的現金流,並完成一些基礎收購和可能更大的收購。

  • I will now turn the call over to Steve.

    我現在將把電話轉給史蒂夫。

  • Stephen Finis Blackwood - CFO and Senior VP of Strategic Sourcing & Tax

    Stephen Finis Blackwood - CFO and Senior VP of Strategic Sourcing & Tax

  • Thank you, Robert, and good morning. I will first discuss some additional financials for the quarter not covered by Robert, and then I will discuss our first quarter and full year 2024 outlook. In the fourth quarter, cash flow from operating activities was $164.4 million compared with $237.7 million in 2022. Free cash flow, that is cash from operating activities less capital expenditures was $124.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared with $203.6 million in 2022.

    謝謝你,羅伯特,早安。我將首先討論 Robert 未提及的本季度的一些其他財務數據,然後我將討論我們的第一季和 2024 年全年展望。第四季度,經營活動產生的現金流為1.644 億美元,而2022 年為2.377 億美元。自由現金流,即經營活動產生的現金減去資本支出,2023 年第四季為1.242 億美元,而2022年為2.036 億美元。

  • Cash flow declined in the fourth quarter since we made $139 million of additional tax payments, which we were allowed to defer from the second and third quarter of 2023, due to IRS disaster relief. Without these catch-up tax payments, quarterly cash flow have been at an all-time record. Capital expenditures were $40.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2023, compared with $34.1 million in 2022.

    由於我們額外繳納了 1.39 億美元的稅款,第四季度的現金流量有所下降,由於國稅局的救災工作,我們被允許從 2023 年第二季度和第三季度推遲繳納稅款。如果沒有這些補繳的稅款,季度現金流量將創下歷史新高。 2023 年第四季的資本支出為 4,020 萬美元,而 2022 年第四季的資本支出為 3,410 萬美元。

  • Depreciation and amortization expense was $77.4 million for the fourth quarter of 2023, compared with $81.8 million in 2022. We ended the quarter with approximately $2.60 billion of net debt. That is approximately $3.24 billion of debt less cash of $648.3 million.

    2023 年第四季的折舊和攤銷費用為 7,740 萬美元,而 2022 年為 8,180 萬美元。本季結束時,我們的淨債務約為 26 億美元。這大約是 32.4 億美元的債務減去 6.483 億美元的現金。

  • Now turning to our outlook. Management currently believes that GAAP earnings per share in the first quarter of 2024 will be in the range of $3.73 to $3.86 with non-GAAP earnings in the range of $4.55 to $4.65 per share. And for the full year of 2024, our GAAP earnings per share outlook is $17.15 to $17.53. And on a non-GAAP basis, $20.35 to $20.68. The 2024 full year estimated tax rate, excluding discrete items, is expected to be 22.5%.

    現在轉向我們的展望。管理層目前認為,2024 年第一季 GAAP 每股收益將在 3.73 美元至 3.86 美元之間,非 GAAP 每股收益將在 4.55 美元至 4.65 美元之間。對於 2024 年全年,我們的 GAAP 每股收益預期為 17.15 美元至 17.53 美元。以非 GAAP 計算,為 20.35 美元至 20.68 美元。 2024年全年預估稅率(不包括離散項目)預計為22.5%。

  • I will now pass the call back to Robert.

    我現在將把電話轉回給羅伯特。

  • Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

    Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

  • Thank you, Steve. We would now like to take your questions. Tom, if you're ready to proceed with the questions and answers, please go ahead.

    謝謝你,史蒂夫。我們現在願意回答您的問題。湯姆,如果您準備好繼續提問和回答,請繼續。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) We'll begin today with a question from Jim Ricchiuti representing Needham & Company.

    (操作員說明)今天我們將從代表 Needham & Company 的 Jim Ricchiuti 提出的問題開始。

  • James Andrew Ricchiuti - Senior Analyst

    James Andrew Ricchiuti - Senior Analyst

  • I wanted to see if we could dig a little bit more into the way you see the year unfolding, it sounds like Q1 a little bit more seasonality. And I guess, with respect to the full year guidance, as you think about the balance of the year, are you making some assumptions of recovery in the shorter cycle business in the latter part of the year, particularly some of the areas that have been weaker, like the lab instrumentation and the industrial automation, machine vision area.

    我想看看我們是否可以更深入地了解今年的發展方式,聽起來第一季的季節性更強一些。我想,就全年指導而言,當您考慮今年的餘額時,您是否對今年下半年較短週期業務的複蘇做出了一些假設,特別是一些已經被較弱的領域,如實驗室儀器儀表和工業自動化、機器視覺領域。

  • Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

    Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

  • Alright. Yes. We're right now expecting uptick in those businesses in the second half of the year. We think that what will happen is that we will have a linear ramp in sales and earnings throughout the year with about -- average revenue increase of about 4% and earnings as we've outlined up to $20.68, which would reflect also an improvement in margin from this year to next year of another almost 50 to 60 basis points.

    好吧。是的。我們目前預計這些業務將在今年下半年成長。我們認為,全年的銷售額和收益將呈線性增長,平均收入增長約 4%,收益如我們所概述的高達 20.68 美元,這也反映了從今年到明年的利潤率又差不多有50到60個基點。

  • So yes, we're anticipating that. On the other hand, we're also adjusting our cost structure and if necessary, we'll do more. So that our earnings remain healthy.

    所以是的,我們正在期待這一點。另一方面,我們也在調整我們的成本結構,如果有必要,我們會做更多的事情。這樣我們的收入就能保持健康。

  • James Andrew Ricchiuti - Senior Analyst

    James Andrew Ricchiuti - Senior Analyst

  • With respect to the margin improvement that you're anticipating, I'm wondering how should we think about margins by some of the major business units just directionally?

    關於您預期的利潤率改善,我想知道我們應該如何定向考慮一些主要業務部門的利潤率?

  • Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

    Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

  • Sure. Jim, we are expecting margin improvement in every segment. A little lower in instruments, maybe 25 basis points. We already have very healthy margins there. On the other hand, in Digital Imaging, about 80 basis points. In Aerospace and Defense, we think we'll have 80 to 90 basis points. And Engineered Systems around 50 basis points.

    當然。吉姆,我們預計每個細分市場的利潤率都會有所改善。工具方面略低一些,可能是 25 個基點。我們在那裡已經擁有非常可觀的利潤率。另一方面,在數位成像領域,約為 80 個基點。在航空航太和國防領域,我們認為我們將有 80 到 90 個基點。工程系統大約有 50 個基點。

  • So overall, Jim, in the segment, we anticipate about 70 basis points margin improvement. And overall, for the company between 50 and 60 basis points. In a way, it's kind of similar to what we achieved this year, which was about 60 basis points over last year.

    吉姆,總體而言,我們預計該細分市場的利潤率將提高約 70 個基點。總體而言,該公司的漲幅在 50 到 60 個基點之間。在某種程度上,這與我們今年的成績類似,比去年高了約 60 個基點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next, we'll go to the line of Greg Konrad with Jefferies.

    接下來,我們將轉到格雷格·康拉德(Greg Konrad)和傑弗里斯(Jefferies)的隊伍。

  • Gregory Arnold Konrad - Equity Analyst

    Gregory Arnold Konrad - Equity Analyst

  • Maybe just to follow up with the last question but on the revenue side, given the commentary around book-to-bill, 4% growth for the year. Can you maybe talk about the assumptions between long and short cycle or from a segment basis for growth in 2024?

    也許只是為了跟進最後一個問題,但在收入方面,考慮到有關訂單出貨量的評論,今年增長了 4%。您能否談談長週期和短週期之間或細分市場對 2024 年成長的假設?

  • Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

    Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

  • Yes, Greg, let me give you the segment first. And then I'll try and answer the first question. From a segment perspective, with the Instrumentation, would grow about 3.5% this year over last year. We think Digital Imaging will -- going back to Instrumentation, there's a difference between the different businesses that we have. The marine businesses with healthy background backlog, as George mentioned, would grow about 6% to 6.5%, whereas environmental would be just under 3%, and we're expecting T&M to basically hold.

    是的,格雷格,讓我先跟你講這個部分。然後我將嘗試回答第一個問題。從細分市場來看,儀器儀表今年將比去年成長約3.5%。我們認為數位成像將——回到儀器儀表,我們擁有的不同業務之間存在差異。正如 George 所提到的,具有良好背景積壓的海事業務將成長約 6% 至 6.5%,而環境業務將略低於 3%,我們預計 T&M 基本保持不變。

  • Going to Digital Imaging. We believe that the overall sales increase would be above 4%. Aerospace and Defense, about 5%. Engineered Systems, about 4%. And when you add all of that up, we expect an average of about 4% at this time.

    轉向數位成像。我們認為整體銷售額增幅將在4%以上。航空航太和國防,約5%。工程系統,約 4%。當你把所有這些加起來時,我們預計目前的平均成長率約為 4%。

  • Gregory Arnold Konrad - Equity Analyst

    Gregory Arnold Konrad - Equity Analyst

  • And then maybe if we can just dig into Digital Imaging a little bit more. I mean the commentary and the release around product lines on the call was helpful. But is there any way just for Q4 in 2023 to kind of level set or put some numbers behind growth in space in health care versus maybe the declines you've seen in other parts of the portfolio?

    然後也許我們可以進一步深入研究數位成像。我的意思是,電話會議上有關產品線的評論和發布很有幫助。但有什麼辦法可以讓 2023 年第四季達到某種水平,或者用一些數字來支持醫療保健領域的成長,而不是你在投資組合的其他部分看到的下降?

  • Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

    Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

  • Sure. Let me start with Q4, please, and then I'll go to some of the others. In health care, we had really nice Q4. Revenue increased about 13.5% to 14%. In Aerospace and Defense, it increased about 5%. This offset basically weakness in our industrial and scientific vision systems. The flip side, if you go over to our FLIR businesses, we have really robust growth in our surveillance system, about 16.5%, and some of our detection products. Overall, in Q4, FLIR revenue defense increased about 4.8%.

    當然。請讓我從第四個問題開始,然後我將討論其他一些問題。在醫療保健方面,我們在第四季的表現非常好。營收成長約13.5%至14%。在航空航太和國防領域,成長了約5%。這基本上彌補了我們工業和科學視覺系統的弱點。另一方面,如果你看看我們的 FLIR 業務,我們的監控系統和一些檢測產品確實實現了強勁成長(約 16.5%)。總體而言,第四季度,FLIR 防禦收入成長了約 4.8%。

  • Now going forward, for the -- to the future. I'll make a little distinction between DALSA e2v and FLIR. We think that DALSA e2v would have a modest growth of about 3%, offset by about 4.5% in FLIR. As mentioned earlier, FLIR defense especially, is experiencing really good order intake and we expect the growth there to exceed that of the rest of the imaging. So I can give you more detail but that's basically a summary of it.

    現在,展望未來。我將對 DALSA e2v 和 FLIR 進行一些區分。我們認為 DALSA e2v 將有約 3% 的溫和成長,被 FLIR 約 4.5% 的成長所抵消。如前所述,尤其是 FLIR 防禦領域,訂單量非常大,我們預計該領域的成長將超過其他成像領域。所以我可以給你更多的細節,但這基本上是一個總結。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll go to the line of Ron Epstein with Bank of America.

    我們將與美國銀行聯繫 Ron Epstein。

  • Unidentified Analyst

    Unidentified Analyst

  • This is Jordan (inaudible) on for Ron. I wanted to ask, so for the backlog growth in the defense wins that you guys are seeing, how are you guys thinking about the risk of the CR?

    這是喬丹(聽不清楚)為榮恩代言。我想問一下,對於你們所看到的防守勝利積壓的成長,你們如何看待 CR 的風險?

  • Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

    Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

  • Well, sure. Obviously, CR is always an unpleasant occurrence for us. The way we're looking at it is we're only right now considering the orders that we have in house. We're not really looking at future orders. So book-to-bill has been healthy. These are longer-term programs. And frankly, we have some exciting new products coming out, which are being now tested. For example, if you look at our Black Hornet, we -- Black Hornet 3, which is our nano drones. Black Hornet 3 had a really good run over the past 5, 6 years. We've introduced a Black Hornet 4, which is already getting traction. We also have some really nice programs in Space Development Agency Tranche 2 Tracking Layer as well as our international sales in that domain are healthy.

    嗯,當然。顯然,CR對我們來說始終是一件不愉快的事。我們看待這個問題的方式是,我們現在才考慮我們內部的訂單。我們並沒有真正考慮未來的訂單。因此,訂單出貨量一直保持健康狀態。這些是長期計劃。坦白說,我們推出了一些令人興奮的新產品,目前正在測試中。例如,如果你看看我們的黑蜂,我們-黑蜂3,這是我們的奈米無人機。 《黑黃蜂3》在過去五、六年表現非常出色。我們推出了黑黃蜂 4,它已經引起了人們的注意。我們在 Space Development Agency Tranche 2 Tracking Layer 中也有一些非常好的項目,而且我們在該領域的國際銷售也很健康。

  • So in some ways, while CR would be not a pleasant thing to experience. We've done it in the past. We've had CRs in many years. Right now, we're looking at what we have in our backlog, which is healthy.

    所以從某些方面來說,雖然 CR 體驗起來並不是一件愉快的事。我們過去已經做到了。我們多年來一直有 CR。現在,我們正在查看積壓的訂單,這是健康的。

  • Unidentified Analyst

    Unidentified Analyst

  • Got it. And then on the unmanned systems, aero systems that you guys cited as being lower for DI. Is that related to just sunsetting programs? Or what was driving that change?

    知道了。然後是無人系統、航空系統,你們認為 DI 較低。這與日落計劃有關嗎?或者是什麼推動了這種改變?

  • Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

    Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

  • I think basically, it's tough comps rather than real declines. I think -- we think our drone businesses are healthy. We also have some businesses that our anti-drone or flame detection systems, which we're selling in Europe, which are very healthy. So I think it's just a matter of tough comps. Other than that, we feel very good about our drone businesses.

    我認為基本上,這是艱難的比較,而不是真正的下滑。我認為——我們認為我們的無人機業務是健康的。我們還有一些業務,我們在歐洲銷售我們的反無人機或火焰偵測系統,這些系統非常健康。所以我認為這只是一個艱難的比賽問題。除此之外,我們對我們的無人機業務感覺非常好。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • A question from the line of Joe Giordano with TD Cowen.

    來自 Joe Giordano 和 TD Cowen 的問題。

  • Joseph Craig Giordano - MD & Senior Analyst

    Joseph Craig Giordano - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Close enough there. How are you doing?

    那裡夠近了。你好嗎?

  • Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

    Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

  • Good, Joe. Good.

    很好,喬。好的。

  • Joseph Craig Giordano - MD & Senior Analyst

    Joseph Craig Giordano - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Can you -- I'll start on free cash flow. I think that at the end of the day, that probably came in a little lighter than you thought for the full year. Can you talk about how you think '24 shapes up and how working capital looks for the year?

    我可以從自由現金流開始。我認為最終的結果可能比你想像的全年要少一些。您能談談您對「24」的看法以及今年的營運資金狀況嗎?

  • Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

    Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

  • Yes, you're right. It came in a little lighter but we made some really good progress in the third quarter and especially in the fourth quarter, from our managed working capital perspective, we had some significant improvement in our -- trying to reduce our inventory. The flip side is, we also did not -- we're always like most companies suffering from not being able to get cash for our R&D. So I'd say but that affected us maybe $75 million -- or $60 million to $75 million.

    你是對的。它有點輕,但我們在第三季度取得了一些非常好的進展,特別是在第四季度,從我們管理的營運資本的角度來看,我們在努力減少庫存方面取得了一些重大改進。另一方面,我們也沒有——我們總是像大多數公司一樣,因為無法為研發獲得現金而苦苦掙扎。所以我想說,但這可能影響了我們 7,500 萬美元,或 6,000 萬到 7,500 萬美元。

  • Our cash, nevertheless, if you looked at it, we paid down $680 million of debt in 2023. Our debt-to-EBITDA ratio -- net debt-to-EBITDA ratio is about 1.9. So let me fast forward to 2024. We believe we'll do a little better in 2024 than we did in 2023. We'd like to think that we would have a 100% conversion, recognizing that there is always going to be this R&D headwind. Even though everybody in the Congress has agreed that the R&D program should be passed. I think nothing is passing in this Congress. So we're not -- we're assuming we don't get that.

    然而,如果你看一下我們的現金,我們在 2023 年償還了 6.8 億美元的債務。我們的債務與 EBITDA 比率——淨債務與 EBITDA 比率約為 1.9。讓我快轉到 2024 年。我們相信 2024 年我們會比 2023 年做得更好一點。我們希望我們能實現 100% 的轉化,並認識到總會有這樣的研發逆風。儘管國會中的每個人都同意應該通過研發計劃。我認為本屆國會什麼都沒有通過。所以我們不是——我們假設我們不明白這一點。

  • Nevertheless, we think will be somewhere between $900 million, $925 million and $1 billion. If we hit those numbers, which we think we will then our debt-to-EBITDA ratio should go down from 1.9 to closer to 1.1 to 1.2, which is -- which puts us in a really good position to be able to make both small and midsized acquisition.

    儘管如此,我們認為將在 9 億美元、9.25 億美元和 10 億美元之間。如果我們達到這些數字(我們認為我們會實現),那麼我們的債務與 EBITDA 比率應該從 1.9 下降到接近 1.1 到 1.2,這使我們處於非常有利的位置,能夠使兩者都變小和中型收購。

  • Joseph Craig Giordano - MD & Senior Analyst

    Joseph Craig Giordano - MD & Senior Analyst

  • That's really helpful color. My last one, we've kind of talked about the DI lot but I just want to -- maybe if you can frame for the full year of '23, like how much down was like the industrial and scientific vision? And what did that do to margins? And then how did FLIR margins for the full year look year-on-year?

    這真是有用的顏色。在我的上一篇文章中,我們已經討論了 DI 的問題,但我只是想——也許你可以展望一下 23 年全年的情況,例如工業和科學願景下降了多少?這對利潤率有何影響?那麼 FLIR 全年利潤年比情況如何?

  • Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

    Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

  • Okay. Let me just pick the first part. Industrial and scientific vision, I'm going to say we're down about 2% year-over-year, larger declines in Q4 than that. In terms of the margins, FLIR margins actually improved significantly year-over-year. It went from 20.3% in 2022 to 22.1% in 2023, which was very healthy. As a consequence, we were able to hold the overall margins in Digital Imaging relatively flat.

    好的。讓我只選擇第一部分。工業和科學願景方面,我想說我們比去年同期下降了約 2%,第四季的降幅更大。就利潤率而言,FLIR 的利潤率實際上比去年同期顯著提高。從2022年的20.3%上升到2023年的22.1%,這是非常健康的。因此,我們能夠將數位成像領域的整體利潤率保持在相對平穩的水平。

  • Joseph Craig Giordano - MD & Senior Analyst

    Joseph Craig Giordano - MD & Senior Analyst

  • And you'd expect FLIR to expand margins again in '24, correct? Just inherent in that margin commentary?

    您預計 FLIR 將在 24 年再次擴大利潤,對嗎?只是邊際評論中固有的嗎?

  • Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

    Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

  • Yes. We think FLIR would have some margin expansion. But if you look at it as a whole segment that is our Digital Imaging segment, we expect margins to increase somewhere between 50 and 100 basis points in 2024.

    是的。我們認為 FLIR 的利潤率將會有所擴大。但如果你將其視為整個細分市場,即我們的數位成像細分市場,我們預計 2024 年利潤率將增加 50 到 100 個基點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next, let's go to the line of Kristine Liwag, representing Morgan Stanley.

    接下來,讓我們來看看代表摩根士丹利的克里斯汀·利瓦格(Kristine Liwag)。

  • Kristine Liwag - Executive Director, Head of Aerospace & Defense Equity Research and Equity Analyst

    Kristine Liwag - Executive Director, Head of Aerospace & Defense Equity Research and Equity Analyst

  • Robert, last year, you talked about some facility consolidation at Digital Imaging. And you're also talking about 80 basis points in margin expansion this year for the segment. How much of that is from this consolidation from before on the floor integration? And how much of that is on better price cost? And ultimately, could we expect to see higher margins there if you have additional cost takeout you could do this year?

    羅伯特,去年您談到了數位成像公司的一些設施整合。您也談到今年該細分市場的利潤率擴大了 80 個基點。其中有多少來自先前現場整合的整合?其中有多少是基於更好的價格成本?最終,如果您今年可以進行額外的成本削減,我們是否可以期望在那裡看到更高的利潤?

  • Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

    Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

  • Yes, Kristine, let me see if I can do this properly. We are in the process, for example, now in terms of space consolidation. What we're doing is we're getting out of leased spaces and moving to owned spaces. For example, in Massachusetts, we have an own space in Billerica. We're getting out of a lease space there and that should be effective in March. That will help us say something of $500,000, $600,000, $700,000.

    是的,克里斯汀,讓我看看我能否正確地做到這一點。例如,我們現在正在空間整合方面。我們正在做的是擺脫租賃空間並搬到自有空間。例如,在馬薩諸塞州,我們在比爾里卡擁有自己的空間。我們將退出那裡的租賃空間,這應該會在三月生效。這將幫助我們說出 50 萬美元、60 萬美元、70 萬美元。

  • The issue that we have while consolidation overall is helpful, it's the growth of our businesses and the lower costs that we have put in place this year. that should be more helpful. So when Edwin thinks about or talks about margin improvement, he is looking at really a lower cost structure, which we've achieved maintaining that and getting some growth, especially from our longer-cycle businesses. So it's a combination of those. I would say, lower cost and growth trumping just space consolidation.

    我們遇到的問題是,雖然整合總體上是有幫助的,但這是我們業務的成長和我們今年實施的較低成本。那應該更有幫助。因此,當埃德溫考慮或談論利潤率提高時,他實際上正在考慮更低的成本結構,我們已經實現了維持這一結構並獲得了一些增長,特別是來自我們的較長週期業務。所以它是這些的組合。我想說,更低的成本和成長勝過空間整合。

  • Kristine Liwag - Executive Director, Head of Aerospace & Defense Equity Research and Equity Analyst

    Kristine Liwag - Executive Director, Head of Aerospace & Defense Equity Research and Equity Analyst

  • Great color. And in terms of industrial automation and the laboratory instrumentation markets, you've talked about a rebound for the second half of the year. What metrics are you looking at? What indicators are you following to -- that you're watching out for this end market?

    顏色很棒。在工業自動化和實驗室儀器市場方面,您談到了下半年的反彈。您關注哪些指標?您正在關注哪些指標—您正在關注這個終端市場?

  • Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

    Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

  • For industrial automation, really it's a combination of things. We're seeing, for example, some improvement in the semi market now, projections for improved semi market recovery. We'll also seeing some pickup in smartphones now, which is our consumer-related businesses, which affects our Micro Electro Mechanical Systems, MEMS programs. In the other markets, especially laboratory instrumentation, we don't have as much visibility. Frankly, we haven't seen these kind of declines before.

    對於工業自動化來說,這其實是多種因素的結合。例如,我們現在看到半成品市場有所改善,預計半成品市場復甦有所改善。我們現在還將看到智慧型手機的一些回升,這是我們與消費者相關的業務,這會影響我們的微機電系統、MEMS 專案。在其他市場,尤其是實驗室儀器市場,我們沒有那麼多的知名度。坦白說,我們以前從未見過這種下降。

  • So we think those should come back. But we're not counting on them a lot. We think there's a flip side of our environmental businesses, which is -- that's a part of which is the air quality, water quality monitoring, which have been very healthy. We have a nice backlog and we think the combination of those 2 will help us in that part of our Instrumentation business.

    所以我們認為這些應該會回來。但我們並不太指望他們。我們認為我們的環保業務也有另一面,其中一部分是空氣品質、水質監測,這些都是非常健康的。我們有大量的積壓訂單,我們認為這兩者的結合將幫助我們完成儀器業務的這一部分。

  • Kristine Liwag - Executive Director, Head of Aerospace & Defense Equity Research and Equity Analyst

    Kristine Liwag - Executive Director, Head of Aerospace & Defense Equity Research and Equity Analyst

  • And last question for me. I mean, your current leverage position gives you flexibility to pursue more sizable deals? I mean, you've recently closed the Zeno acquisition. But in terms of larger deals, are valuations starting to look more attractive? And how is the 2024 pipeline shaping up?

    還有我的最後一個問題。我的意思是,您目前的槓桿狀況使您能夠靈活地追求更大規模的交易?我的意思是,你們最近完成了對 Zeno 的收購。但就規模較大的交易而言,估值是否開始看起來更具吸引力? 2024 年的管道進度如何?

  • Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

    Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

  • Yes. I have to tell you, valuations on the larger deals have not come down yet as much as we would like. We've looked at some of the prices that our competitors have paid for large ones, those are kind of out of our range of what we would consider.

    是的。我必須告訴你,較大交易的估值尚未像我們希望的那樣下降。我們研究了競爭對手為大型產品支付的一些價格,這些價格超出了我們的考慮範圍。

  • On the flip side, we see some opportunities in smaller bolt-on acquisitions, what we call string-of-pearls, which are available, and we will be pursuing those. If you looked at our '68, '69 acquisitions over our history, the string-of-pearls are about [60] out of '68, '69. And they are the easiest to integrate. We can fit them in and we can improve their margins as we go. The larger deals, we have to be a little more patient because right now, prices are still pretty high.

    另一方面,我們在規模較小的補強收購中看到了一些機會,我們稱之為“珍珠鍊”,這些機會是可用的,我們將繼續追求這些機會。如果你看看我們在 68、69 年收購的歷史,你會發現 68、69 年的珍珠串大約有 [60] 個。而且它們是最容易整合的。我們可以讓他們融入進來,並且可以提高他們的利潤。對於較大的交易,我們必須多一點耐心,因為目前價格仍然相當高。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Here's a question from Andrew Buscaglia with BNP.

    這是安德魯·巴斯卡利亞 (Andrew Buscaglia) 向法國巴黎銀行 (BNP) 提出的問題。

  • Andrew Edouard Buscaglia - Research Analyst

    Andrew Edouard Buscaglia - Research Analyst

  • Digital Imaging margin. So I wanted to ask on -- so you're going to start Q1 sounds like in a whole. First off is Digital Imaging margins, do you expect those down year-over-year and that effectively marks sort of a bottom for that segment as sales start to improve from there?

    數位成像裕度。所以我想問——所以你要開始第一季聽起來像是一個整體。首先是數位成像利潤率,您是否預計該利潤率會同比下降,並且隨著銷售開始改善,這實際上標誌著該細分市場的觸底?

  • Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

    Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

  • No. The answer is no. I don't expect Digital Imaging margins to go down. I think that should go up a little bit in Q1 and then pick up the rest of the year. As I mentioned before, Andrew, this -- we think Digital Imaging as a whole should have margin improvement in '24, somewhere between 50 basis points and 100 basis points. We'd probably more prejudice towards the higher number.

    不,答案是否定的。我預計數位成像的利潤率不會下降。我認為第一季這一數字應該會有所上升,然後在今年剩餘時間內回升。正如我之前提到的,安德魯,我們認為整個數位影像產業的利潤率應該在 24 年有所改善,在 50 個基點到 100 個基點之間。我們可能會對更高的數字抱有更大的偏見。

  • But nevertheless, no, I don't think we're expecting to suffer there because as we've done before, when some of our markets soften up, we take cost out. And then that helps maintain our margins. And the markets come back, we really enjoy the margin improvement. So no, I don't think Digital Imaging is going to go down.

    但儘管如此,我不認為我們會在那裡遭受損失,因為正如我們之前所做的那樣,當我們的一些市場疲軟時,我們就會削減成本。這有助於維持我們的利潤。市場回來了,我們真的很享受利潤率的提升。所以不,我不認為數位成像會下降。

  • Andrew Edouard Buscaglia - Research Analyst

    Andrew Edouard Buscaglia - Research Analyst

  • And you mean up year-over-year or up sequentially?

    你的意思是同比增長還是環比增長?

  • Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

    Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

  • Well, I think year-over-year first, it's going to between 50 to 100 basis points. I think Q1 -- I think what would happen is if there's sequentially -- it will be sequential improvement. I don't expect things to go down.

    嗯,我認為首先會比去年同期上漲 50 到 100 個基點。我認為第一季——我認為如果有順序的話會發生什麼——這將是連續的改進。我不希望事情會惡化。

  • Andrew Edouard Buscaglia - Research Analyst

    Andrew Edouard Buscaglia - Research Analyst

  • Yes. Okay. And then in past quarters, you sort of broke out (inaudible) book-to-bill versus legacy Teledyne book-to-bill. Do you have that? And then wondering your view on potential incremental defense awards as the year progresses?

    是的。好的。然後在過去的幾個季度中,你可以看到(聽不清楚)訂單到帳單與傳統 Teledyne 訂單到帳單的對比。你有那個嗎?然後想知道您對隨著時間的推移潛在的增量國防獎勵的看法?

  • Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

    Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

  • Sure. If you look at Instrumentation, which is all legacy Teledyne in some ways, which is marine, environmental and test and measurement. The book-to-bill in Q4 was 1.12, which is very healthy, driven primarily by marine, which was really good. Digital Imaging, we -- or excluding FLIR, I'm just answering your question precisely, it was just over 1. Aerospace and Defense, it was closer to 1.2. That's historical paradigm. And Engineered Systems was just over 1. And then if you look at FLIR, which is our big acquisition, obviously, it was just over 1. So all in all, whether it's our historical Teledyne or Teledyne plus FLIR, if you look at Q4, our book-to-bill was over 1 -- closer to 1.07.

    當然。如果你看看儀器儀表,它在某些方面都是 Teledyne 的傳統,包括海洋、環境以及測試和測量。第四季的訂單出貨比為 1.12,非常健康,主要由海運推動,這非常好。數位成像,我們——或不包括 FLIR,我只是準確地回答你的問題,它剛剛超過 1。航空航天和國防,它接近 1.2。這就是歷史範式。 Engineered Systems 剛剛超過 1。如果你看看 FLIR,這是我們的重大收購,顯然,它剛剛超過 1。所以總而言之,無論是我們歷史上的 Teledyne 還是 Teledyne 加 FLIR,如果你看看第四季度,我們的訂單出貨比超過1,接近1.07。

  • Andrew Edouard Buscaglia - Research Analyst

    Andrew Edouard Buscaglia - Research Analyst

  • Okay. And then a question on you're feeling on incremental defense awards throughout the year. Is there still a lot you're tracking?

    好的。然後是關於您對全年增量國防獎勵的感受的問題。還有很多你正在追蹤的嗎?

  • Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

    Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

  • Yes. The answer is yes. We have a pretty good read on what's coming. We have some new products. I mentioned the Black Hornet 4. I mentioned the Space Tranche 2. The primes that have gotten their awards in last week, we are up to all of them. And we feel good about that.

    是的。答案是肯定的。我們對即將發生的事情有很好的了解。我們有一些新產品。我提到了《黑黃蜂 4》。我提到了《太空特蘭奇 2》。上週獲得獎項的主要影片,我們都在等待。我們對此感覺很好。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) And let's go to the line of Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs.

    (操作員說明)讓我們來看看諾亞·波波納克 (Noah Poponak) 與高盛 (Goldman Sachs) 的關係。

  • Noah Poponak - Equity Analyst

    Noah Poponak - Equity Analyst

  • Robert, your full year 2024 framework is assuming 4% full year organic revenue growth. Is that correct?

    羅伯特,您的 2024 年全年框架假設全年有機收入成長 4%。那是對的嗎?

  • Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

    Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

  • Yes, about 4%.

    是的,大約4%。

  • Noah Poponak - Equity Analyst

    Noah Poponak - Equity Analyst

  • And can you just repeat what you said about the first quarter top line revenue dollars or organic revenue growth?

    您能否重複一下您所說的第一季營收或有機收入成長?

  • Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

    Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

  • Yes. I think it'd be above 1.4 or a little under, if that's going to be our lowest quarter. And I'm saying that because of the short-cycle businesses that we're seeing. We have orders on long-cycle businesses. But we -- our short-cycle businesses, we're assuming that will not recover much in Q1. So it should be flat year-over-year in terms of revenue and then pick up [as before].

    是的。我認為如果這將是我們最低的季度的話,它會高於 1.4 或略低於 1.4。我這麼說是因為我們看到了短週期的業務。我們有長週期業務的訂單。但我們的短週期業務,我們假設第一季不會有太大復甦。因此,就收入而言,它應該與去年同期持平,然後[像以前一樣]回升。

  • Noah Poponak - Equity Analyst

    Noah Poponak - Equity Analyst

  • Got it. Okay. Just -- yes, I wasn't clear but now I am. And I guess in those short-cycle businesses, I mean this has sort of been asked and discussed but just have you actually seen concrete evidence of when that will pick up? Or I know a short cycle, but orders for it to pick up? Or are you just kind of making an assumption based on everything you know about the business? And then I guess you'll also have easier compares.

    知道了。好的。只是——是的,我之前不清楚,但現在我清楚了。我想在那些短週期業務中,我的意思是這已經被詢問和討論過,但你是否真的看到了具體的證據表明這種情況何時會好轉?或者我知道周期很短,但命令讓它回升?或者您只是根據您對業務的了解做出假設?然後我想你也會更容易比較。

  • Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

    Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

  • That's very good. We look at our pipeline as necessarily say that we have better orders at this time. But we're talking to our customers, we're looking at that inventory levels but they're sharing that with us. And we see that inventories are going down. As a consequence, we expect that we will start getting the orders. Long cycle, of course, you understand that's much easier because we already have the orders and we feel good about that.

    這是非常好的。我們審視我們的管道,必然會說我們目前有更好的訂單。但我們正在與客戶交談,我們正在查看庫存水平,但他們正在與我們分享。我們看到庫存正在下降。因此,我們預計我們將開始收到訂單。當然,週期長,你知道這要容易得多,因為我們已經有了訂單,我們對此感覺很好。

  • So the other thing that we do on the short cycle is we look at the generator trends that people are talking about in terms of what happened in the semi-industry in the past number of quarters. And what's expected -- what people are projecting. We'd be thinking that environmental and test and measurement will eventually pick up. But we're also seeing some pickup in MEMS already in (inaudible) infrared as well as our maritime businesses. So that's what's encouraging. We see some lowering of inventories for our customers as well as some pickup in certain unique businesses of ours.

    因此,我們在短週期中做的另一件事是,我們根據過去幾季半工業中發生的情況來研究人們正在談論的發電機趨勢。以及人們的預期是什麼。我們認為環境、測試和測量最終將會回升。但我們也看到 MEMS 已經在(聽不清楚)紅外線以及我們的海事業務中有所回升。這就是令人鼓舞的地方。我們看到客戶的庫存有所下降,而我們某些獨特業務的庫存有所增加。

  • Noah Poponak - Equity Analyst

    Noah Poponak - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. That makes sense, and that's helpful. If I go to the 4% organic for the year, and then I do what you said with the segment margins, I think most of the things between that and the EPS are pretty straightforward. I get something above your EPS guidance. Is it safe to assume that you've just embedded some degree of conservatism relative to the lack of visibility in short cycle in the EPS range?

    好的。這是有道理的,而且很有幫助。如果我選擇今年的 4% 有機利率,然後按照你所說的分部利潤率進行操作,我認為該利潤率與每股收益之間的大部分內容都非常簡單。我得到的結果超出了您的 EPS 指導。是否可以安全地假設,相對於每股收益範圍內短期週期缺乏可見性,您剛剛嵌入了某種程度的保守主義?

  • Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

    Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

  • Yes. You said it better than I could. We're always a little conservative. The other -- there's one other thing that I should mention. When we look at our segments, per se and we look at increases in segment margins. We have to be cognizant of the fact that the new management, which is Edwin and George are now going to be their costs -- or their pay is going to reflect in the corporate portion. And we're also seeing a little higher medical and insurance premiums. So corporate, we expect would go up. That's why while the margins in the segment look much higher, the corporate margins are -- we're assuming they're going to be increasing about 50 to 60 basis points.

    是的。你說得比我好。我們總是有點保守。另一件事——還有一件事我應該要提一下。當我們審視我們的細分市場本身時,我們會關注細分市場利潤率的成長。我們必須認識到這樣一個事實:新的管理層,也就是埃德溫和喬治,現在將成為他們的成本——或者他們的工資將反映在公司部分。我們也看到醫療和保險費上漲。因此,我們預期企業會上漲。這就是為什麼雖然該領域的利潤率看起來要高得多,但我們假設企業利潤率將增加約 50 至 60 個基點。

  • Noah Poponak - Equity Analyst

    Noah Poponak - Equity Analyst

  • Last one, some of your commentary makes it sound like the M&A pipeline is pretty full and pretty active and you're pretty optimistic about what you see. Other things you've said suggests there's a bid-ask spread and maybe it's a little tougher. So I guess, can you put a finer point on it in terms of how likely we are to see deals this year?

    最後一篇,您的一些評論聽起來似乎併購管道相當完整且非常活躍,您對所看到的情況非常樂觀。你所說的其他事情表明存在買賣差價,而且可能有點困難。所以我想,您能否更詳細地闡述今年我們看到交易的可能性有多大?

  • Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

    Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

  • Yes. Let me just say that the confusion may have reason because I was answering 2 questions at the same time. The first part was larger acquisitions because we -- our leverage ratio is obviously going down and it go down faster this year. The larger acquisitions right now that we look at are pretty expensive. People are paying prices that we are not going to. On the other hand, smaller acquisitions are available and we expect to make some this year. So I think we'd be patient for the largest ones -- larger ones like we always have been and -- but we will make some smaller acquisitions this year. So we have a reasonable product line.

    是的。我只想說,這種困惑可能是有原因的,因為我同時回答了兩個問題。第一部分是更大規模的收購,因為我們的槓桿率明顯下降,而且今年下降得更快。我們目前看到的規模較大的收購相當昂貴。人們正在付出我們不會付出的代價。另一方面,可以進行規模較小的收購,我們預計今年將進行一些收購。因此,我認為我們會對最大的企業保持耐心——像我們一直以來那樣的大型企業——但今年我們將進行一些較小的收購。所以我們有合理的產品線。

  • Noah Poponak - Equity Analyst

    Noah Poponak - Equity Analyst

  • Got it. Okay. Great.

    知道了。好的。偉大的。

  • Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

    Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

  • Thank you, Noah, for sending those issues that you wanted some answers to. That was very helpful.

    諾亞,謝謝您發送您想要答案的問題。這非常有幫助。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next is the question from Robert Jamieson with UBS.

    接下來是瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的羅伯特·賈米森 (Robert Jamieson) 提出的問題。

  • Robert Gregor Jamieson - Analyst

    Robert Gregor Jamieson - Analyst

  • L(inaudible) very helpful. One kind of smaller one on A&D electronics. Strong growth, like expected for next year and another 80 to 90 basis points of margin expansion. Just curious how you're thinking about the growth split within commercial Aerospace between new builds and then MRO? And then how should we think about the puts and takes on margin there, maybe if like MRO is a little bit pressured next year?

    L(聽不清楚)非常有幫助。 A&D 電子設備上的一種較小的。強勁成長,符合明年的預期,利潤率再擴大 80 至 90 個基點。只是好奇您如何看待商業航空航太領域新建和 MRO 之間的成長分配?然後我們應該如何考慮那裡的保證金看跌期權和認購期權,也許明年 MRO 會有點壓力?

  • Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

    Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

  • Let's stay with Aerospace first. A significant amount of our revenue in Aerospace is in the aftermarket. Because we have a very large, embedded base in aircraft of various kinds. So we think that is going to be very helpful for us. We also are -- obviously, in 737, we have a product line that's going into that. And we think that's going to help us regardless of the current issues with builds and so on.

    我們首先關注航空航天。我們在航空航太領域的大部分收入來自售後市場。因為我們在各種飛機上都有一個非常大的嵌入式基地。所以我們認為這對我們非常有幫助。顯然,在 737 中,我們也有一條涉及此的產品線。我們認為,無論當前存在建置等問題,這都會對我們有所幫助。

  • On the Defense side, we are seeing some good programs in modernization, stockpile, replacement. And we think those would be helpful to us. And obviously, we believe it will be a balance of improvement, both in aerospace and in defense perhaps 5% to 6% -- 5% to 6% in each domain.

    在國防方面,我們看到了一些現代化、儲存、更新等方面的良好計劃。我們認為這些對我們會有幫助。顯然,我們相信這將是一種改進的平衡,在航空航天和國防領域,每個領域可能都有 5% 到 6%——5% 到 6%。

  • Robert Gregor Jamieson - Analyst

    Robert Gregor Jamieson - Analyst

  • That's great. And then this is kind of more of a random question, but just -- we talked a little bit about capital allocation. You got a full funnel, probably going to look to do some smaller acquisitions. Absent anything large and I know this would be a deviation for what we've seen over the last several years. But would you have any interest in buying back stock?

    那太棒了。這更像是一個隨機問題,但我們只是討論了一些關於資本配置的問題。你有一個完整的管道,可能會考慮一些較小的收購。如果沒有任何大的事情,我知道這將與我們過去幾年所看到的情況有所偏差。但你有興趣回購股票嗎?

  • And then I guess one other kind of thought or questions that random would be given like the float, would you ever consider a stock split to maybe make it a little bit easier to trade like tighten the bid-ask spread? And could that ever maybe make it easier for you to buy back stock?

    然後我猜想會隨機給出另一個想法或問題,例如浮動,您是否會考慮進行股票分割,以使交易變得更容易,例如收緊買賣價差?這會讓你更容易回購股票嗎?

  • Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

    Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

  • Split, no. And the reason -- let me start there. And the reason I say that, that's [obtained] for our investors. And 90-plus percent of our investors are institutional investors. We don't want to cause that kind of a problem for them. We have very small fraction of our investors that are retail investors.

    分裂,不。原因——讓我從這裡開始。我之所以這麼說,是為了我們的投資人。我們90%以上的投資者都是機構投資者。我們不想給他們帶來這樣的問題。我們的投資者中只有很小一部分是散戶投資者。

  • Going back to buyback. Right now, we think our investment returns are much better reflected in acquisitions than stock buyback. You don't want to say never because stock goes down a lot, then it becomes attractive. I'm hoping that doesn't happen. We do have open authorization if we wanted to do that. But right now, I don't see that as long as we have attractive acquisitions, even small ones, we'll do those. And there's nothing wrong also having some cash on the side in these days with the interest rates that we're seeing.

    回到回購。目前,我們認為收購比股票回購更好地反映了我們的投資回報。你不想說“永遠”,因為股票下跌很多,然後它就變得有吸引力。我希望這不會發生。如果我們想這樣做,我們確實有公開授權。但現在,我不認為只要我們有有吸引力的收購,即使是小規模的收購,我們也會這樣做。在這些天我們所看到的利率下,持有一些現金也沒有什麼問題。

  • So we have to pay down about $600 million of debt this year. In some ways, it's unfortunate because it's fixed debt at less than 1% but then we don't have to pay down debt until 2026. So we'll have a lot of cash available to do things. So we think we'll be okay.

    所以我們今年必須償還約 6 億美元的債務。從某些方面來說,這是不幸的,因為它的固定債務率低於 1%,但我們直到 2026 年才需要償還債務。所以我們將有大量現金可以用來做事。所以我們認為我們會沒事的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) We have a follow-up from Joe Giordano, he's representing TD Cowen.

    (操作員說明)我們有 Joe Giordano 的跟進,他代表 TD Cowen。

  • Joseph Craig Giordano - MD & Senior Analyst

    Joseph Craig Giordano - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Just wanted to ask on the pricing environment because I know you said before that maybe you took less -- I mean, price was so strong for kind of everyone for a long time here. But I think in some areas, maybe in some of the vision products, you took less price than you probably could have to kind of maintain share. And just curious how the pricing environment has evolved since you made those comments and what you're thinking how price is a part of your guidance for next year?

    只是想問定價環境,因為我知道你之前說過,也許你花的更少——我的意思是,在很長一段時間裡,價格對每個人來說都很強勁。但我認為在某些領域,也許在某些視覺產品中,你採取的價格低於維持份額所需的價格。只是好奇自從您發表這些評論以來定價環境發生了怎樣的變化,以及您認為價格如何成為明年指導的一部分?

  • Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

    Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

  • First point, backwards, in '23, we had some nice price increases. I'm going to say broadly 2% to 3%, let's say, 3%. We expect the same in '24. In some areas, obviously, we were able to increase price more than 3%. But in some areas like government contracts that are not peak sensitive and their cost plus there you can't increase prices as such. So I think 2% to 3% is what we're looking at for '24.

    首先,回顧一下,23 年,我們的價格出現了一些不錯的上漲。我想說的大概是 2% 到 3%,比如說 3%。我們預計 24 年也會如此。顯然,在某些地區,我們能夠將價格提高 3% 以上。但在某些領域,例如政府合同,這些領域對峰值不敏感,而且其成本也很高,因此您無法提高價格。所以我認為 2% 到 3% 是我們 24 年的目標。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And we have no other participants queuing up at this time.

    而且此時我們沒有其他參與者在排隊。

  • Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

    Robert Mehrabian - Executive Chairman

  • Thank you very much, Tom. I'll just have -- I'll ask Jason to please conclude our call.

    非常感謝你,湯姆。我會請傑森結束我們的通話。

  • Jason VanWees - Vice Chairman

    Jason VanWees - Vice Chairman

  • Thanks, Robert. Again, thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning. And again if you have follow-up questions, please feel free to call me at the number on the earnings release. And Tom, if you could give the replay information, just a conclusion, that would be the ideal. Thanks everyone.

    謝謝,羅伯特。再次感謝大家今天早上加入我們。再次強調,如果您有後續問題,請隨時撥打收益發佈上的電話號碼與我聯絡。湯姆,如果你能提供重播訊息,只是一個結論,那將是理想的。感謝大家。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • One moment here. I pull that up -- sorry about that. Ladies and gentlemen, this will be available for replay, if you give me one moment.

    在這裡等一下。我把它拉起來——對此感到抱歉。女士們先生們,如果你們給我一點時間,我們可以重播。

  • It will be available for replay in an hour and it will run through February 24 at midnight. You may access the AT&T replay service at any time by dialing (866) 207-1041, entering the access code of 459-0647. And we thank you for your participation and using the AT&T Event Services. You may now disconnect.

    它將在一小時內重播,並將持續到 2 月 24 日午夜。您可以隨時撥打 (866) 207-1041,輸入接取碼 459-0647,存取 AT&T 重播服務。我們感謝您的參與和使用 AT&T 活動服務。您現在可以斷開連線。