TransDigm Group Inc (TDG) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q4 2025 TransDigm Group Inc, earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions). Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

您好，感謝您的耐心等待。歡迎參加 TransDigm Group Inc. 2025 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作說明）請注意，今天的會議正在錄影。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Jaimie Stemen, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我謹將會議交給今天的發言人，投資者關係總監 Jaimie Stemen。請繼續。

Thank you, and welcome to TransDigm's fiscal 2025 fourth quarter earnings conference call. Presenting on the call this morning are TransDigm's President and Chief Executive Officer, Mike Lisman; Co-Chief Operating Officer, Joel Reiss; and Chief Financial Officer, Sarah Wynne. Also present for the call today is our Co-Chief Operating Officer, Patrick Murphy. Please visit our website at transdigm.com to obtain a supplemental slide deck and call replay information.

謝謝，歡迎參加 TransDigm 2025 財年第四季財報電話會議。今天早上出席電話會議的有 TransDigm 的總裁兼執行長 Mike Lisman；聯合營運長 Joel Reiss；以及財務長 Sarah Wynne。今天出席電話會議的還有我們的聯席營運長派崔克墨菲。請造訪我們的網站 transdigm.com 以取得補充投影片和電話會議回放資訊。

Before we begin, the company would like to remind you that statements made during this call, which are not historical in fact are forward-looking statements. For further information about important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements, please refer to the company's latest filings with the SEC available through the Investors section of our website or at sec.gov.

在開始之前，公司想提醒各位，本次電話會議中所作的陳述，如果不是歷史事實，實際上都是前瞻性陳述。有關可能導致實際結果與前瞻性聲明中明示或暗示的結果存在重大差異的重要因素的更多信息，請參閱公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的最新文件，這些文件可通過我們網站的投資者關係部分或 sec.gov 獲取。

The company would also like to advise you that during the course of the call, we will be referring to EBITDA, specifically EBITDA as defined, adjusted net income and adjusted earnings per share, all of which are non-GAAP financial measures. Please see the tables and related footnotes in the earnings release for a presentation of the most directly comparable GAAP measures and applicable reconciliations.

本公司也想告知各位，在本次電話會議中，我們將提及 EBITDA（具體而言，是按定義定義的 EBITDA）、調整後淨收入和調整後每股收益，這些都是非公認會計準則財務指標。請參閱獲利報告中的表格和相關腳註，以了解最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標和適用的調整表。

I will now turn the call over to Mike.

現在我將把通話轉給麥克。

Good morning, and thanks for calling in today. First, I'll start off with the usual quick overview of our strategy; second, make a few comments about the quarter; and third, discuss our fiscal 2026 outlook. Then Joel and Sarah will give additional color on the quarter. To reiterate, we believe we are unique in the industry in both the consistency of our strategy in both good times and bad, as well as our steady focus on intrinsic shareholder value creation through all phases of the aerospace cycle.

早安，感謝您今天的來電。首先，我將按慣例快速概述一下我們的策略；其次，對本季度做一些評論；最後，討論一下我們 2026 財年的展望。然後喬爾和莎拉會為這枚硬幣增添更多色彩。重申一下，我們相信，無論順境或逆境，我們都能保持戰略的一致性，並且在航空航天週期的各個階段都始終專注於創造內在的股東價值，這在業內是獨一無二的。

To summarize, here are some of the reasons why we believe this. About 90% of our net sales are generated by unique proprietary products. Most of our EBITDA comes from aftermarket revenues, which generally have significantly higher margins and over any extended period have typically provided relative stability in the downturns. We follow a consistent long-term strategy.

總而言之，我們相信這一點的原因如下。我們約 90% 的淨銷售額來自獨特的專有產品。我們的 EBITDA 大多來自售後市場收入，這些收入通常利潤率要高得多，並且在任何較長時期內，在經濟低迷時期通常都能提供相對穩定性。我們奉行一貫的長期戰略。

First, we own and operate proprietary aerospace businesses with significant aftermarket content. Second, we utilize a simple, well-proven, value-based operating methodology. Third, we have a decentralized organizational structure and a unique compensation system closely aligned with our shareholders. Fourth, we acquire businesses that fit this strategy and where we see a clear path to private equity-like returns. And lastly, our capital structure and allocation are a key part of our value-creation methodology.

首先，我們擁有並經營專有的航空航太業務，並有大量的售後市場產品。其次，我們採用簡單、行之有效、以價值為導向的營運方法。第三，我們擁有分散的組織結構和獨特的薪酬體系，與股東利益緊密相連。第四，我們收購符合此策略且我們認為有明確途徑獲得類似私募股權回報的企業。最後，我們的資本結構和配置是我們價值創造方法論的關鍵部分。

Our long-standing goal is to give our shareholders private equity-like returns with the liquidity of a public market. To do this, we stay focused on both the details of value creation as well as careful allocation of our capital. As you saw from our earnings release, we closed out the year with a good quarter.

我們長期以來的目標是，在確保公開市場流動性的前提下，為股東帶來類似私募股權投資的回報。為此，我們既注重價值創造的細節，也注重資本的謹慎配置。正如您從我們的財報中看到的那樣，我們以一個不錯的季度結束了這一年。

During the fourth quarter, we saw healthy growth in the revenue for our commercial aftermarket channel, robust growth in our defense market channel. And finally, as expected, our commercial OEM revenues returned to a growth position following the brief destocking trends we saw last quarter.

第四季度，我們的商業售後市場通路收入實現了健康成長，國防市場通路也實現了強勁成長。最後，正如預期的那樣，在經歷了上個季度短暫的去庫存趨勢後，我們的商業 OEM 收入恢復了成長。

For the full year, our fiscal 2025 revenue and EBITDA as defined margin surpassed our most recently published guidance. Commercial aerospace market trends remain favorable. Air traffic continues to steadily progress and airline schedules remain fairly stable with takeoffs and landings growing in the 3% to 4% ballpark year-over-year.

2025 財年全年營收和 EBITDA 利潤率都超過了我們最近發布的預期。商業航空航太市場趨勢依然良好。航空交通持續穩定發展，航空公司航班時刻表保持相對穩定，起降架次年增約 3% 至 4%。

In the commercial OEM market, there is still much progress to be made for OEM rates, and our results continue to be adversely affected by OEM performance. Airline demand for new aircraft remains high and the OEMs have long backlogs.

在商業 OEM 市場，OEM 費率還有很大的進步空間，我們的業績仍受到 OEM 表現的不利影響。航空公司對新飛機的需求依然旺盛，而飛機製造商的訂單積壓嚴重。

OEMs are working to increase aircraft production to meet this demand, but the recovery to date has been bumpy and will likely remain so. Our EBITDA as defined margin was 54.2% in the quarter. Contributing to this solid Q4 margin is the continued growth in our commercial aftermarket, along with diligent focus on our operating strategy, which is allowing margin performance to expand across all segments.

為了滿足這一需求，飛機製造商正在努力提高飛機產量，但迄今為止的復甦之路並不平坦，而且這種情況可能會持續下去。本季我們的 EBITDA 利潤率為 54.2%。第四季穩健的利潤率得益於商業售後市場的持續成長，以及我們對營運策略的認真專注，這使得所有業務部門的利潤率都能提升。

Additionally, we had strong operating cash flow generation in Q4 of over $500 million, and we ended the quarter with a cash balance of over $2.8 billion and over $2 billion pro forma for the Simmonds acquisition. We expect to steadily generate significant additional cash throughout fiscal 2026.

此外，我們在第四季度實現了強勁的營運現金流，超過 5 億美元，季度末現金餘額超過 28 億美元，加上對 Simmonds 的收購，現金餘額超過 20 億美元。我們預計在 2026 財年將穩定產生大量額外現金流。

Next, an update on our capital allocation activities and priorities. During our full fiscal '25 and continuing into October, we are pleased to have allocated approximately $7 billion of capital in the aggregate across M&A and return of capital to our shareholders.

接下來，我們將介紹我們的資本配置活動和優先事項。在我們整個 2025 財年以及之後的 10 月份，我們很高興地宣布，我們已累計向股東分配了約 70 億美元的資金，用於併購和資本返還。

Specifically, these activities included the acquisitions of Servotronics, Simmonds Precision Products and approaching $300 million of other small tuck-in acquisitions as well as a special dividend of $90 per share and $600 million of share repurchases.

具體而言，這些活動包括收購 Servotronics、Simmonds Precision Products 以及其他近 3 億美元的小型補充收購，以及每股 90 美元的特別股息和 6 億美元的股票回購。

The dividend of $90 per share was our largest to date. As you know, we are continuously assessing our capital allocation options and we were very pleased to return this capital to our shareholders. The recent share repurchases, including $100 million in October, are rooted in the same targeted returns math we have consistently applied over the years.

每股90美元的股息是我們迄今為止最高的。如您所知，我們一直在評估我們的資本配置方案，我們非常高興能夠將這筆資金回饋給我們的股東。最近的股票回購，包括 10 月的 1 億美元回購，都是基於我們多年來堅持的相同目標回報計算方法。

Regarding the current M&A activities in the pipeline, we continue to actively look for opportunities that fit our model. As usual, the potential targets are mostly in the small- and mid-sized range. As always, we will remain disciplined around our approach to M&A. Additionally, acquisitions are, by their nature, hard to predict. So consistently with past practice, I will not be saying too much on what is currently active in our funnel.

對於目前正在籌備的併購活動，我們將持續積極尋找符合我們模式的機會。像往常一樣，潛在目標大多是小型和中型企業。我們將一如既往地保持對併購的嚴謹態度。此外，收購本身就難以預測。因此，與以往的做法一致，我不會過多談論我們銷售漏斗中目前正在進行的內容。

The capital allocation priorities at TransDigm are unchanged. Our first priority is to reinvest in our businesses second, do accretive disciplined M&A; and third, return capital to our shareholders via buybacks or dividends. The fourth option, paying down debt seems unlikely at this time, though we do still take this into consideration. We are continually evaluating all of our capital allocation options, but both M&A and the capital markets are difficult to predict.

TransDigm的資本配置優先事項維持不變。我們的首要任務是再投資於我們的業務；其次，進行有紀律的增值併購；第三，透過股票回購或分紅向股東返還資本。第四個選擇，即償還債務，目前看來不太可能，不過我們還是會考慮這個方案。我們一直在評估所有資本配置方案，但併購和資本市場都難以預測。

We exited fiscal 2025 with a sizable cash balance and our recent capital allocation actions still leave us with significant liquidity and financial flexibility to meet any likely range of capital requirements or other opportunities in the readily foreseeable future.

我們在 2025 財年結束時擁有相當可觀的現金餘額，我們最近的資本配置措施仍然使我們擁有充足的流動性和財務靈活性，以滿足在可預見的未來可能出現的任何資本需求或其他機會。

Now moving on to our outlook for fiscal 2026. This guidance incorporates the recently acquired Simmonds Precision Products business, which we are very excited to now own but which comes into the TransDigm fold at a profitability level below that of our typical acquisition. The guidance assumes no additional acquisitions or divestitures during the year.

接下來，我們展望一下2026財年。該指導意見包含了最近收購的 Simmonds Precision Products 業務，我們非常高興現在擁有了該業務，但該業務併入 TransDigm 後，其盈利水平低於我們通常收購的業務。該指引假設年內不會進行任何額外的收購或剝離。

Our initial guidance for fiscal 2026 is as follows and can be found on Slide 7, in today's presentation. The midpoint of our fiscal '26 revenue guidance is $9.85 billion or up approximately 12% over the prior year. As a reminder and consistent with past years, with about 10% or so fewer working days than the subsequent quarters, fiscal '26 Q1 revenues, EBITDA and EBITDA margins are anticipated to be lower than the other three quarters of 2026.

我們對 2026 財年的初步預期如下，詳見今日簡報的第 7 頁。我們對 2026 財年營收預期中位數為 98.5 億美元，較上年成長約 12%。提醒各位，與往年一樣，由於 2026 財年第一季的工作日比接下來的幾個季度少了大約 10%，預計 2026 財年第一季的收入、EBITDA 和 EBITDA 利潤率將低於 2026 年的其他三個季度。

This revenue guidance is based on the following market channel growth rate assumptions. We expect commercial OEM revenue growth in the high single digit to mid-teens percentage range which is highly dependent on the evolution of the production rates in the commercial OEM environment.

此收入預測基於以下市場通路成長率假設。我們預計商業 OEM 收入成長將達到個位數高點至十幾個百分點，這很大程度上取決於商業 OEM 環境中的生產力變化。

Commercial aftermarket revenue growth is expected to be in the high single-digit percentage range. And defense revenue growth in the mid-single-digit to high single-digit percentage range. The midpoint of our fiscal 2026 EBITDA as defined guidance is $5.15 billion or up approximately 8% with an expected margin of around 52.3%. This guidance includes an additional 200 basis points of margin dilution from recent acquisitions compared to fiscal '25.

預計商業售後市場收入成長將達到較高的個位數百分比。國防收入成長幅度在個位數中段至個位數高段之間。我們 2026 財年 EBITDA 預期中位數為 51.5 億美元，較上年成長約 8%，預期利潤率約 52.3%。與 2025 財年相比，此預期包括近期收購帶來的額外 200 個基點的利潤率稀釋。

Additionally, some commercial OE and defense mix headwind in the range of 0.5 percentage point to a full percentage point is further reducing our margins versus fiscal '25. Adjusting for these two dilutive factors, the margins would have increased more versus fiscal '25 and in line with the margin improvement we would typically expect on our base business.

此外，一些商業 OE 和國防組合的不利因素（幅度在 0.5 個百分點到 1 個百分點之間）進一步降低了我們的利潤率，與 2025 財年相比。考慮到這兩個稀釋因素，利潤率將比 2025 財年增長更多，並且符合我們通常預期基礎業務的利潤率改善情況。

We anticipate EBITDA margins will move up throughout the year, with Q1 being the lowest and sequentially lower than Q4 of fiscal '25. The midpoint of adjusted EPS is expected to be $37.51. We believe we are well positioned as we enter our fiscal '26. We'll continue to closely watch how the aerospace and capital markets develop and react accordingly.

我們預計 EBITDA 利潤率將全年上升，第一季最低，並且比 2025 財年第四季低。調整後每股收益中位數預計為 37.51 美元。我們相信，進入 2026 財年之際，我們已做好充分準備。我們將繼續密切關注航空航天和資本市場的發展情況，並做出相應的反應。

We are pleased with the company's performance this year in 2025. Our team successfully navigated the challenges of uneven demand and our commercial OEM market throughout the year to deliver a healthy EBITDA as defined margin.

我們對公司2025年的業績感到滿意。我們的團隊成功克服了全年需求不均衡和商業 OEM 市場帶來的挑戰，並實現了健康的 EBITDA 利潤率。

Looking to our new fiscal year, we remain focused on our value drivers, cost structure and operational excellence. We look forward to fiscal '26 and expect that our consistent strategy will continue to provide the value you've come to expect from us.

展望新的財年，我們將繼續專注於價值驅動因素、成本結構和卓越營運。我們期待 2026 財年，並期望我們一貫的策略將繼續為您帶來您一直以來所期望的價值。

Now let me hand it over to Joel Reiss, our TransDigm Group Co-COO, to review our recent performance and a few other items.

現在，我把麥克風交給 TransDigm 集團的聯合營運長 Joel Reiss，讓他回顧我們最近的業績和其他一些事項。

Good morning, everyone. I'll start with our typical review of our results by key market category. For the remainder of the call, I'll provide commentary on a pro forma basis compared to the prior year period in 2024. That is assuming we own the same mix of businesses in both periods. The market discussion excludes the recent acquisition of Simmonds Precision Products.

各位早安。我將首先按主要市場類別對我們的業績進行常規回顧。在本次電話會議的剩餘時間裡，我將根據 2024 年的往年同期數據，對業績進行預測性評論。前提是我們在這兩個時期擁有相同的業務組合。市場討論不包括最近對 Simmonds Precision Products 的收購。

In the commercial market, we will split our discussion into OEM and aftermarket. Our total commercial OEM revenue increased 7% in Q4 and was down 1% for the full year fiscal 2025 compared with the prior year periods. As we anticipated, commercial OEM revenue in the fourth quarter returned to positive growth as we supported higher build rates.

在商業市場方面，我們將把討論分為OEM市場和售後市場。第四季度，我們的商業 OEM 總營收成長了 7%，但與去年同期相比，2025 財年全年營收下降了 1%。正如我們預期的那樣，隨著我們支持更高的生產力，第四季度商業 OEM 收入恢復了正成長。

However, overall, the commercial OEM revenue performance for the full year was softer than we originally expected for fiscal 2025. The year-over-year decline in commercial OEM revenue was primarily driven by the negative impact of OEM build rates that resulted from the Boeing strike and production ramp-up challenges at Airbus. Bookings in the quarter were up compared to the same prior year period.

然而，整體而言，2025 財年全年商業 OEM 營收表現低於我們最初的預期。商業 OEM 收入年減的主要原因是波音罷工導致 OEM 生產力下降，以及空中巴士生產爬坡面臨挑戰。本季預訂量較上年同期成長。

Commercial transport bookings growth was up over 20% for the fourth quarter. The bookings levels for OEM commercial transport show that the market is recovering from the various disruptions seen over the past year or so.

第四季商業運輸預訂量成長超過 20%。OEM商用運輸的預訂量表明，市場正在從過去一年左右的各種幹擾中復甦。

But as we have said before, this recovery could be a bit bumpy and uneven on a quarterly basis as the OEMs and our Tier-1 and Tier-2 customers rightsize inventory levels. We are encouraged by the progress of the 737 max production line as well as the FAA's approval for Boeing to increase its production rate. Our operating units are well positioned to support the higher production rates as they occur.

但正如我們之前所說，由於 OEM 廠商以及我們的一級和二級客戶都在調整庫存水平，因此這種復甦可能會在季度層面上有些坎坷和不均衡。我們對737 Max生產線的進展以及美國聯邦航空管理局批准波音公司提高生產力感到鼓舞。我們的營運部門已做好充分準備，能夠支援更高的生產力。

The commercial OEM guidance we are giving today contains what we believe is an appropriate level of risk around the production build rates for the 2026 fiscal year. Our fiscal 2026 commercial OEM revenue guidance range of high single-digit to mid-teens percentage growth contemplates reasonable risks around the Boeing and Airbus rates.

我們今天給出的商業 OEM 指導意見包含了我們認為 2026 財年生產力方面適當的風險水準。我們對 2026 財年商用 OEM 收入的預期範圍為個位數高段至十幾個百分點的成長，其中已考慮了波音和空中巴士費率方面的合理風險。

Now moving on to our commercial aftermarket business discussion. Total commercial aftermarket revenue increased by approximately 11% in Q4 and 10% for the full year compared with the prior year periods. Sequentially, total commercial aftermarket revenues were up 5% in Q4. This quarter, all submarkets within the commercial aftermarket experienced positive growth. Our commercial aftermarket, excluding our bizjet submarket was up 13% driven by solid growth in freight, interiors and engines.

現在讓我們來討論一下商業售後市場業務。與上年同期相比，第四季商業售後市場總收入成長約 11%，全年成長約 10%。第四季度，商業售後市場總收入季增 5%。本季度，商業售後市場的所有細分市場均實現了正成長。除公務機子市場外，我們的商業售後市場成長了 13%，這主要得益於貨運、內裝和引擎的穩健成長。

Bookings across all submarkets were up compared to the prior year period and POS at our distributors grew in double digits on a percentage basis this quarter. For the full year, the 10% revenue growth for commercial aftermarket was in line with our original expectations. Each of the submarkets performed about as expected with strong performance from our interior submarket and from the operating units with higher engine content within the passenger submarket.

與去年同期相比，所有細分市場的預訂量均有所增長，本季我們經銷商的 POS 銷售額按百分比計算實現了兩位數的成長。全年來看，商業售後市場收入成長10%，符合我們最初的預期。各個子市場的表現基本上符合預期，其中內裝子市場和乘用車子市場中發動機含量較高的營運單位表現強勁。

Our operating units continue to monitor market share and competitive losses and we see no material change in this space from either USM or PMAs. As Mike already mentioned, we expect 2026 commercial aftermarket revenue growth in the high single-digit percentage range regarding how commercial aftermarket revenue is likely to progress throughout the fiscal 2026, Q1 is expected to be the lowest quarter of the year on a sales dollar basis as there are roughly 10% fewer working days than in other quarters.

我們的營運部門持續監測市場佔有率和競爭損失，我們認為USM或PMA在這個領域都不會發生實質變化。正如 Mike 已經提到的，我們預計 2026 年商業售後市場收入成長將達到個位數百分比的高點。至於 2026 財年商業售後市場收入的發展情況，預計第一季將是全年銷售額最低的季度，因為第一季的工作日比其他季度少了約 10%。

Now shifting to our defense market. Defense market revenue, which includes both OEM and aftermarket revenues, grew by approximately 16% in Q4 and 13% for full year fiscal 2025 compared with the prior year periods. We have seen strong growth in defense, driven by new business wins and strong performance by our teams in both domestic and international markets.

現在轉向我們的國防市場。國防市場收入（包括 OEM 和售後市場收入）在 2025 財年第四季度增長了約 16%，全年增長了約 13%，與上年同期相比。在國防領域，我們取得了強勁成長，這得益於新業務的贏得以及我們團隊在國內和國際市場上的出色表現。

Q4 defense revenue growth was well distributed across our businesses and customer base. Although we saw similar rates of growth in both the OEM and aftermarket components of our total market with aftermarket running slightly ahead of OEM. Defense bookings for the quarter and full year significantly surpassed the comparable prior year periods and support our 2026 guidance for mid-single to high-single-digit revenue growth.

第四季國防業務收入成長在各業務部門和客戶群中分佈均衡。儘管我們看到 OEM 和售後市場零件的整體市場成長率相似，但售後市場略微領先 OEM。本季和全年國防訂單量均顯著超過上年同期水平，支持我們2026年實現中個位數至高個位數收入成長的預期。

Additionally, this quarter, we saw continued growth in the US government defense spend outlays. As we have said many times before, defense sales and bookings can be lumpy. We know the bookings and sales will come but forecasting them with accuracy and precision, especially on a quarterly basis, can be difficult. We anticipate capital expenditures of about $300 million in fiscal 2026. About two-thirds of our capital expenditure spending is on new business and productivity-driven projects.

此外，本季我們看到美國政府國防開支持續增長。正如我們之前多次說過的那樣，國防銷售和訂單可能會出現波動。我們知道預訂量和銷售額肯定會到來，但要準確、精確地預測它們，尤其是按季度預測，可能很困難。我們預計 2026 財年的資本支出約為 3 億美元。我們約三分之二的資本支出用於新業務和提高生產力的項目。

Typical payback for cost reduction projects is just a couple of years. We have over 150 new automation projects planned for the year. We continue to see the cost of automation technology decrease year-over-year. We are a high mix, low-volume manufacturer and our continued success taking on new automation tasks in assembly, machining, polishing and painting is exciting.

成本削減專案的典型投資回收期僅為幾年。我們今年計劃開展超過150個新的自動化項目。我們看到自動化技術的成本逐年下降。我們是一家產品種類繁多、產量較小的製造商，我們在裝配、加工、拋光和噴漆等自動化領域不斷取得成功，這令人振奮。

As a result of our continued focus on productivity in both the factory and offices, we anticipate our headcount will remain roughly flat despite the increase in commercial and defense OEM work content during the year. We also had good continued success winning new business this year. I can't get into specifics, but several operating units have been awarded content on the F-47, and we believe this will be an excellent platform for us, hopefully, in upcoming quarters, I'll be able to provide more specifics.

由於我們持續關注工廠和辦公室的生產效率，我們預計儘管今年商業和國防 OEM 工作內容有所增加，但我們的員工人數將保持大致不變。今年我們在拓展新業務方面也取得了持續的成功。我無法透露具體細節，但幾個作戰單位已經獲得了 F-47 的相關內容，我們相信這將是一個非常適合我們的平台。希望在接下來的幾個季度裡，我能提供更多細節。

To highlight a few new business programs I can talk about. In September, the US Army placed its first large production order for Airborne Systems glide modulation canopy marking a major milestone following nearly 2-years of successful test and evaluation. This product represents a significant technological advancement over the current generation system used by the US Army and Air Force.

我將重點介紹幾個我可以談的新商業項目。9 月，美國陸軍下了第一筆空降系統公司滑翔調製座艙蓋的大批量生產訂單，這標誌著經過近 2 年的成功測試和評估後，取得了重大進展。該產品代表著對美國陸軍和空軍目前使用的一代系統的重大技術進步。

This new product allows jumpers to more precisely target landings in confined areas. The initial order value at $5 million begins the full transition to the new Canopy in all future procurements. Airborne will deliver the first canopies in February 2026 to the US Army Military Free Fall school where all new jumpers will be trained on this new upgraded system.

這款新產品可以讓跳傘者在狹小空間中更精準地控制著陸點。首筆價值 500 萬美元的訂單標誌著未來所有採購全面過渡到新型頂篷。空降兵公司將於 2026 年 2 月向美國陸軍軍事自由落體學校交付首批傘兵裝備，所有新跳傘員都將在該新升級的系統上接受訓練。

In August, the UK Ministry of Defense awarded a $30 million contract to IrvinGQ for an advanced aerial delivery system. This new system termed PRIBAD enables the RAF’s Atlas A400 aircraft to air drop a rigid full boat up to 14 meters long and weighing up to 12 tons.

8 月，英國國防部授予 IrvinGQ 公司一份價值 3000 萬美元的合同，用於開發先進的空中投送系統。這個名為 PRIBAD 的新系統使英國皇家空軍的 Atlas A400 飛機能夠空投長達 14 公尺、重達 12 噸的剛性完整船體。

In addition, Auxitrol Weston reached an agreement with Rolls-Royce to supply its complete sensor suite on the Trent XWB-84 enhanced performance engine for the A350-900. This agreement encompasses OEM supply and power by our support to operators, ensuring that the proven reliability of our sensors continues to contribute to the success of all XWB engine variants.

此外，Auxitrol Weston 與勞斯萊斯達成協議，為其 A350-900 的 Trent XWB-84 增強型性能引擎提供完整的感知器套件。該協議涵蓋了 OEM 供貨和我們對營運商的支持，確保我們感測器的可靠性得到驗證，並繼續為所有 XWB 引擎型號的成功做出貢獻。

We are making good progress integrating our two most recent acquisitions, Servotronics and Simmonds Precision. Both integrations are being led by experienced EVPs. We have augmented the existing teams with seasoned individuals from other TransDigm operating units to accelerate their progress. It's still early, but our experience to date indicates that these are going to be two very good additions to TransDigm.

我們在整合最近收購的兩家公司 Servotronics 和 Simmonds Precision 方面取得了良好進展。這兩項整合工作均由經驗豐富的執行副總裁領導。我們從 TransDigm 其他營運部門吸收了經驗豐富的專業人士加入現有團隊，以加快他們的進度。現在下結論還為時過早，但就我們目前的經驗來看，這兩項功能將成為 TransDigm 的兩個非常好的新增功能。

Lastly, I'd like to finish by recognizing the strong efforts and accomplishments of our operating unit teams during fiscal 2025. It was a good year, and we are pleased with the operating performance they delivered for our shareholders. As we enter our new fiscal year, our management teams remain committed to our consistent operating strategy and servicing the strong demand for our products.

最後，我要表揚我們各營運部門團隊在 2025 財年所付出的巨大努力和所取得的成就。這是業績不錯的一年，我們對他們為股東帶來的經營表現感到滿意。在新財年伊始，我們的管理團隊將持續秉持一貫的營運策略，滿足市場對我們產品的強勁需求。

With that, I'd like to turn it over to our Chief Financial Officer, Sarah Wynne.

接下來，我將把發言權交給我們的財務長莎拉溫恩。

Thanks, Joel, and good morning, everyone. I'm going to review a few additional financial matters for fiscal 2025 and then also our expectations for fiscal '26. First, a few additional fiscal '25 data points on organic growth, taxes and liquidity.

謝謝喬爾，大家早安。我接下來將檢視 2025 財年的一些其他財務事項，以及我們對 2026 財年的預期。首先，關於 2025 財年的有機成長、稅收和流動性，還有一些額外的數據點。

In the fourth quarter, our organic growth rate was approximately 11%, and all market channels contributed to this growth as previously discussed by Mike and Joel. On taxes, our GAAP and adjusted tax rates finished the year within a slightly better than their expected ranges.

第四季度，我們的有機成長率約為 11%，所有市場管道都為此成長做出了貢獻，正如 Mike 和 Joel 之前所討論的。在稅收方面，我們的 GAAP 稅率和調整後稅率在年底都略好於預期範圍。

On cash and liquidity, free cash flow, which we traditionally defined as EBITDA less cash interest payments, CapEx and cash taxes was roughly $2.4 billion for the year, slightly above our expected estimate of $2.3 billion. Below that free cash flow line investment of net working capital consumed approximately $330 million on a full year basis and the final net working capital ended the year roughly in line with historical levels as a percentage of sales.

在現金和流動性方面，自由現金流（我們傳統上將其定義為 EBITDA 減去現金利息支出、資本支出和現金稅款）本年度約為 24 億美元，略高於我們預期的 23 億美元。在自由現金流線之下，淨營運資本投資全年消耗了約 3.3 億美元，最終淨營運資本在年底時佔銷售額的百分比與歷史水準大致持平。

We ended the year with approximately $2.8 billion of cash on the balance sheet or approximately $2 billion when pro forma for the completion of the Simmonds acquisition. At year-end, our net debt-to-EBITDA ratio was 5.8 times, and up from the 5.9 times at the end of last quarter after returning capital to our shareholders via a $90 per share dividend.

截至年底，我們的資產負債表上約有 28 億美元現金，若計入完成 Simmonds 收購的備考金額，則約為 20 億美元。截至年底，我們的淨債務與 EBITDA 比率為 5.8 倍，高於上季末的 5.9 倍，這是因為我們透過每股 90 美元的股息向股東返還了資本。

While we don't target a specific amount of cash that we like to have on hand, we have sufficient capital available through both cash on hand and as well as incremental debt capacity to support all potential M&A in the pipeline. Over the course of fiscal '25, we did a fair bit of proactive financing. We pushed out our nearest term maturity from 2027 to 2028. Additionally, we reduced the interest rate on two of our loans. We also raised $5 billion to fund the aforementioned $90 dividend paid out in September.

雖然我們沒有設定具體的現金持有目標，但我們擁有充足的資金，包括現有現金和新增債務能力，以支持所有正在進行的潛在併購活動。在 2025 財年期間，我們進行了相當多的積極融資。我們將最近到期的債券期限從 2027 年推遲到 2028 年。此外，我們也降低了兩筆貸款的利率。我們還籌集了 50 億美元，用於支付上述 9 月派發的 90 美元股息。

Our EBITDA to interest expense coverage ratio ended the quarter at 3.2 times and which provides us with comfortable cushion versus our target range of 2 to 3 times. We continue to be comfortable operating in the 5 to 7 net debt/EBITDA ratio range. Our go-forward strategy of capital deployment has not changed, and we continue to seek the best opportunities for providing value to our shareholders through our leverage strategy.

本季末，我們的 EBITDA 與利息支出覆蓋率達到 3.2 倍，這為我們提供了充足的緩衝空間，遠超我們 2 至 3 倍的目標範圍。我們仍然認為在 5 到 7 倍的淨債務/EBITDA 比率範圍內運作是合適的。我們未來的資本部署策略沒有改變，我們將繼續透過槓桿策略尋求為股東創造價值的最佳機會。

Our capital allocation strategy is to both proactively and prudently manage our debt maturity stacks by keeping the nearest term maturity far out. In addition, approximately 75% of our $30 billion gross debt balance is fixed through fiscal 2029. This is achieved through a combination of fixed rate notes, swaps and collars.

我們的資本配置策略是積極謹慎地管理債務到期順序，使最近的到期日盡可能遠離債務期限。此外，我們 300 億美元的總債務餘額中約有 75% 的債務已確定到 2029 財年為止。這是透過固定利率票據、互換和利率區間組合來實現的。

Next, on the fiscal ‘26 expectations, I'm going to give some more details on the financial assumptions around interest expense, taxes and share count. A special note that all of my comments and data here include the acquisition of Simmonds. Net interest expense is expected to be about $1.9 billion in fiscal '26, and this equates to a weighted average interest rate of approximately 6.3%. This estimate assumes an average SOFR rate of 3.8% for the full year.

接下來，關於 2026 財年的預期，我將詳細介紹有關利息支出、稅金和股份數量的財務假設。特別說明一下，我在這裡的所有評論和數據都包含了對西蒙茲公司的收購。預計 2026 財年的淨利息支出約為 19 億美元，相當於加權平均利率約為 6.3%。此估算假設全年平均SOFR利率為3.8%。

On taxes, our fiscal '26 GAAP cash and adjusted tax rates are all anticipated to be in the range of 22% to 24%. On the share count, we expect our weighted average shares outstanding to be 58.5 million shares in fiscal '26. With regards to liquidity and leverage for fiscal '26 as we would traditionally define our free cash flow from operations at TransDigm, which again is EBITDA as defined less cash interest payments, CapEx and cash taxes, we estimate this metric to be close to $2.4 billion.

關於稅收，我們預計 2026 財年的 GAAP 現金稅率和調整後稅率都將在 22% 至 24% 的範圍內。就股份數而言，我們預計 2026 財年加權平均流通股數為 5,850 萬股。關於 2026 財年的流動性和槓桿率，根據我們以往對 TransDigm 營運自由現金流的定義（即 EBITDA 減去現金利息支出、資本支出和現金稅款），我們估計該指標接近 24 億美元。

After paying for the Simmonds acquisition and assuming no additional acquisitions or capital market transactions, we would end the year with around $4 billion of cash on the balance sheet which would imply a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of approximately 5 times at the end of fiscal '26. We will continue to watch this ratio along with the cash interest coverage ratio as we actively pursue options for maximizing value to our shareholders through our capital allocation strategy.

在支付了 Simmonds 的收購款項後，假設沒有其他收購或資本市場交易，到年底我們的資產負債表上將有大約 40 億美元的現金，這意味著到 2026 財年末，淨債務與 EBITDA 的比率約為 5 倍。我們將持續關注此比率以及現金利息保障倍數，同時積極尋求透過資本配置策略為股東創造最大價值的方案。

In summary, we think we remain in good position with adequate flexibility to pursue M&A or return cash to our shareholders via share buybacks and/or additional dividends during the course of fiscal '26.

總而言之，我們認為我們仍處於良好的地位，擁有足夠的靈活性，可以在 2026 財年期間進行併購或透過股票回購和/或額外分紅向股東返還現金。

With that, I'll hand it back to Jaimie, our Director of Investor Relations.

接下來，我將把這個交還給我們的投資者關係總監傑米。

Before we open the line for Q&A, I ask everyone in the queue to consider your fellow analysts and ask one question only so we can get to as many people as possible, given that in our Q4 call and there's a lot of materials to cover today.

在正式開始問答環節之前，我請排隊的各位分析師考慮一下其他分析師的感受，每人只提一個問題，這樣我們才能盡可能多地照顧到大家，因為這是我們第四季度的電話會議，今天有很多內容要講。

Operator, can you please open the line?

接線生，請您接通線路好嗎？

Thank you. (Operator Instructions).

謝謝。（操作說明）

Scott Mikus, Melius Research.

Scott Mikus，Melius Research。

Good Morning. Mike, when Kevin was CEO, the company opened up the M&A aperture by expanding into test and measurement businesses, although they were still primarily aerospace-related you're still early in your career and could be leading TransDigm for quite a while. Is there a possibility that under your tenure TransDigm takes a more serious look at acquisitions outside of aerospace and defense where you're still comfortable that you can hit your 20% IRR target?

早安.麥克，當凱文擔任執行長時，公司透過拓展測試和測量業務，打開了併購的大門，儘管這些業務仍然主要與航空航天相關。你還處於職業生涯的早期，可能會領導 TransDigm 相當長一段時間。在您的任期內，TransDigm 是否有可能更加認真地考慮航空航天和國防以外的收購項目，並且您仍然有信心實現 20% 的內部收益率目標？

We did two branches outside of the core legacy aerospace hardware business under Kevin, Calspan and Raptor, both it's early innings, but it seems so far, so good. So we're looking for additional things potentially in that space as the experience to date generally has been a positive one. Over time, Well, let's focus on today.

我們在凱文的領導下，在核心傳統航太硬體業務之外，又拓展了兩個分支：Calspan 和 Raptor。雖然都還處於起步階段，但目前看來一切順利。因此，我們正在該領域尋找其他可能的機會，因為迄今為止的經驗總體上是積極的。隨著時間的推移，好吧，我們還是專注於今天。

As we sit here today in terms of what our M&A group, what I'm spending time on from an M&A standpoint, it's not branched out materially from anything that you'd expect to see, which is similar to what we've always targeted in the past, aerospace and defense components businesses. That's where the vast majority of the focus is.

就我們今天所處的併購團隊而言，就我個人而言，從併購的角度來看，它並沒有實質地偏離你所預期的方向，這與我們過去一直瞄準的目標類似，即航空航天和國防零部件企業。絕大多數人的注意力都集中在那裡。

In the fullness of time, could you continue to potentially branch out and look at things under the umbrella, but similar to test and measurement that aren’t right down traditionally our fairway. That could be the case, but we're not there yet. As we sit here today, the focus is more of where it's always been.

隨著時間的推移，您能否繼續擴大業務範圍，並專注於一些與我們傳統領域不太相關的事物，例如測試和測量。有可能，但我們還沒到那一步。今天我們坐在這裡，關注的重點更多地放在了它一直以來的位置。

Okay. And then you talked about the strength in orders in the aftermarket. Were there any noticeable trends among the four submarkets there, whether it's freight, interior, biz jet, helicopter passenger just any pockets of strength or pockets of weakness you saw?

好的。然後您談到了售後市場訂單的強勁勢頭。在上述四個子市場中，無論是貨運、內裝、公務機或直升機客運，您是否觀察到任何明顯的趨勢，例如優勢領域或劣勢領域？

This is Joel. I'll take that. I don't think we've seen any dramatic changes as we got out of the quarter. Surely refurb business for Interiors picked up more this year. It kind of lagged the year before. As we highlighted in the comments, engine has been strong for us all year as it was last year. And I think freight, which struggled the year before also was pretty solid for us this year.

這是喬爾。我接受。我認為隨著本季結束，我們並沒有看到任何劇烈的變化。今年室內裝修業務肯定有所成長。比前一年略顯落後。正如我們在評論中所強調的那樣，引擎今年的表現一直很強勁，和去年一樣。而且我認為，去年表現不佳的貨運業務今年也相當穩健。

Robert Stallard, Vertical Research.

Robert Stallard，Vertical Research。

Thanks so much, good morning. Just a couple from me on the 2026 guidance. First of all, on defense. That's a big slowdown for '26 versus what you've recently experienced for 2025. So I was wondering if you could give some more clarity on that. And then on the aerospace aftermarket, are you assuming a normal level of TransDigm pricing as you move into '26?

非常感謝，早安。關於 2026 年的指導意見，我在這裡補充幾點。首先，關於防守。與 2025 年的情況相比，2026 年的增速大幅放緩。所以我想請您再詳細解釋一下。那麼，在航空航太售後市場方面，您是否假設 TransDigm 的價格在 2026 年將維持正常水準？

So on the defense side, I'm hopeful we're being conservative on it. We had good solid bookings last year and good growth across the various aspects of the company. Defense is lumpy for us. And so unlike the commercial aftermarket with relatively quick book and ship, it's a little bit less predictable on the defense side. So we're going to generally be a little bit more conservative there.

所以在防守方面，我希望我們能採取保守的策略。去年我們的預訂量非常可觀，公司各方面都實現了良好的成長。我們的防守很薄弱。因此，與商業售後市場相對快速的預訂和發貨不同，國防方面的可預測性較低。所以我們在這方面整體上會採取更保守一些的做法。

We've had two solid growth years in a row in defense, and I think we like where we're sitting today. On the commercial aftermarket side, I don't think we're planning to make any change in how we approach pricing. Our goal is to offset the inflationary increases that we see and put a bit of real price on top of that. I'm not sure we're going to -- just similar to what we've done in past years, not looking to make any change.

我們在防守方面已經連續兩年實現了穩健成長，我認為我們對目前的狀況感到滿意。在商業售後市場方面，我認為我們不會改變定價方式。我們的目標是抵消我們所看到的通貨膨脹成長，並在此基礎上增加一些實際價格。我不確定我們是否會這樣做——就像我們過去幾年所做的那樣，不打算做出任何改變。

Ken Herbert, RBC CM.

Ken Herbert，RBC CM。

Yes, hi, good morning. Hey, Mike and Sarah, I appreciate the comments on the margin dilution from the recent acquisitions. Two questions really. First, how do we think about the ability to get the recent acquisitions up to sort of TransDigm margins. Do they have that capability? And what's the time frame to think about that?

是的，你好，早安。嗨，Mike 和 Sarah，感謝你們對近期收購導致利潤率稀釋的評論。其實是兩個問題。首先，我們如何看待將近期收購的資產的利潤率提升到 TransDigm 的水平？他們具備這種能力嗎？那麼，考慮這個問題的時間範圍是多久呢？

And then second, I just wanted to confirm excluding those, I think you've typically talked about sort of 50 basis points to 100 basis points of annual margin expansion. Is that what we would normally expect, obviously, aside from the dilution of the acquisitions?

其次，我想確認一下，排除這些因素後，您通常所說的年度利潤率擴張幅度大約是 50 到 100 個基點。除了收購造成的股權稀釋之外，這顯然是我們通常所預期的嗎？

Ken, it's Mike. I'll lead off and then Sarah can chime in if I miss anything. If you exclude the two dilutive factors, the acquisitions and also the OEM mix shift, you do get at an underlying margin improvement trend for our base businesses that is squarely between the brackets of what you guys would expect of the 1%, 1.5% kind of range when you adjust those two things out. So we are seeing exactly the kind of margin improvement year-over-year we've come to expect and you've come to expect.

肯，我是麥克。我先說，如果我漏掉了什麼，莎拉可以補充。如果排除收購和 OEM 產品組合變化這兩個稀釋因素，我們基礎業務的利潤率確實呈現改善趨勢，這完全符合你們預期的 1% 到 1.5% 的範圍。因此，我們看到的利潤率較去年同期改善正是我們和你們所期望的。

With regard to the two acquisitions, Simmonds and Servotronics, the margins came into the fold at a low level, but these are great products. We're very excited to own both businesses. In the full list of time, we see nothing fundamentally different about these two businesses versus what we've acquired in the past that should prevent us from being able to march the margins upward. The exact time line over which that happens is varied. And obviously, it doesn't happen overnight, but there's nothing different about these businesses that should prevent us in the fullness of time from getting the margins up to where we like them to be.

至於 Simmonds 和 Servotronics 這兩項收購，雖然利潤率較低，但這些都是很棒的產品。我們非常高興能夠同時擁有這兩家公司。從長遠來看，我們認為這兩家企業與我們過去收購的企業並沒有什麼本質區別，這應該不會妨礙我們提高利潤率。具體發生的時間長短不一。顯然，這不會在一夜之間發生，但這些企業並沒有什麼特別之處，不會阻止我們最終將利潤率提高到我們想要的水平。

Kristine Liwag, Morgan Stanley.

克莉絲汀‧利瓦格，摩根士丹利。

Hey, good morning, everyone. You guys touched on your contract award for the F-47. I was wondering, can you give more color on your content on this program. And how does this compare to your content on other fighter programs like the F-18, F-22, F-35?

嘿，大家早安。你們剛才提到了你們獲得的F-47合約。我想問一下，能否更詳細地介紹一下這個節目的內容？那麼，這與您關於其他戰鬥機項目（如 F-18、F-22、F-35）的內容相比如何？

Look, I'm not sure that we can comment on how successful the program will be, ultimately, the DoD awarded Boeing, the fighter jet is the next-generation fighter. We take it seriously, and our teams have been actively working to win good content on the planes, how successful it will be I'm hopeful it will be great, exactly where it's going to end up, we have no idea.

你看，我不確定我們能否評論這個計畫最終會取得多大的成功，但最終，國防部把這個計畫授予了波音公司，這架戰鬥機是下一代戰鬥機。我們非常重視此事，我們的團隊一直在積極努力爭取在飛機上投放優質內容。我希望它能取得巨大成功，但最終結果如何，我們不得而知。

We've historically not disclosed which specific op units won which content and that level of detail. But it seems like it's going to be a really good program for us, as Joel said in his prepared comments.

我們歷來沒有透露哪些具體的行動小組贏得了哪些內容以及如此詳細的資訊。但正如喬爾在事先準備好的演講稿中所說，這似乎對我們來說將是一個非常好的項目。

Great. Well, thank you. I guess, looking at the origin of that question, I just really understanding with the focus on your contracting sales on defense, it's a positive surprise to know that you've been winning more contracts like for something like the F-47. So it's really more just to try to understand what your conversation with customers are like and kind of confirm that you're not in a no-fly zone type environment for new defense contracts.

偉大的。謝謝。我想，從這個問題的起源來看，我完全理解你們專注於國防合同銷售，得知你們贏得了更多像 F-47 這樣的合同，這確實是一個令人驚訝的消息。所以，這其實更多的是為了了解你與客戶的對話是什麼樣的，並確認你不會處於新國防合約的禁區環境中。

No, absolutely not.

不，絕對不行。

Yeah, I think actually, across the company, I think we had more new business awards in the defense market last year than we did on the commercial side. We develop good solutions. And I think this is the key as customers come to us because we can generate a product for them to solve the problem that they can't solve or we solve better than someone else. These are competitive awards and I think we like where we stand, we work to come up with good solutions that generate value for our customers.

是的，實際上，我認為去年整個公司在國防市場獲得的新業務訂單比在商業市場獲得的要多。我們開發出優秀的解決方案。我認為這是關鍵所在，因為客戶會選擇我們，因為我們可以為他們創造產品，解決他們無法解決的問題，或者我們比其他人更好地解決這些問題。這些都是競爭激烈的獎項，我認為我們對目前的排名感到滿意，我們努力提出能夠為客戶創造價值的優秀解決方案。

Myles Walton, Wolfe Research

邁爾斯·沃爾頓，沃爾夫研究公司

Thanks, good morning. I was wondering if we could chat about the CapEx and headcount comments you made. The CapEx looks like it's set to double just over the last couple of years. and you mentioned some of the automation investment. But I guess how much of that is automation to facilitate better productivity versus higher output? And is it more military or commercial?

謝謝，早安。我想問我們是否可以聊聊您提到的資本支出和人員編制方面的問題。資本支出似乎將在過去幾年翻倍。您也提到了一些自動化的投資。但我想問的是，其中有多少是為了提高生產力而進行的自動化，又有多少是為了提高產量而進行的自動化？它是更偏向軍事用途還是商業用途？

And the headcount, can you just clarify, are you saying flat head count inclusive of the additional heads from Simmonds, which closed after the quarter?

關於員工人數，您能否澄清一下，您說的員工人數與上年持平，是指包括了本季結束後關閉的 Simmonds 公司增加的員工人數嗎？

So I'll take the latter part, yes. So we look at everything in this case, on a pro forma basis, so adding the headcount in from Simmonds as we kind of look out at the growth we expect to see for commercial and defense OEM during the year, we don't think we'll have to add -- not it’s no one, but relatively few people across the company and still handle the volume growth, the high single digit to mid-teen growth within the commercial OEM and on the defense side.

所以我選擇後半部分，是的。因此，在這種情況下，我們以預測為基礎來審視一切，將 Simmonds 的員工人數也納入考量。考慮到我們預計今年商業和國防 OEM 業務的成長，我們認為我們不需要增加——不是說完全不需要，而是公司內部相對較少的人員，就能應對銷量增長，即商業 OEM 和國防領域接近兩位數到十幾位數的增長。

When it comes to the CapEx question, I don't know specifically which is defense and which is commercial, our operating units look at projects depending on need and where we can get an excellent return. It ends up being a combination. Sometimes it's to handle more capacity. Sometimes it's a way to basically drive out cost. If it's just capacity, though, we're typically not thinking of that as productivity.

至於資本支出問題，我不太清楚哪些是國防支出，哪些是商業支出，我們的營運部門會根據需求和能否獲得良好回報來考慮專案。最終結果就是兩者結合的結果。有時是為了處理更大的容量。有時這是一種降低成本的有效方法。但如果只是產能，我們通常不會將其視為生產力。

We ultimately should be able to do the work we're doing today, but with fewer people with higher yields that we have today, or to in-source work that potentially is being done on the outside.

我們最終應該能夠用更少的人完成我們今天正在做的工作，但產量會比現在更高，或者將原本可能在外部完成的工作收回內部。

Okay. And just one quick follow-up on cash flow. What is the working capital investment or source that you're expecting in '26?

好的。最後再快速問一下現金流方面的問題。您預計在 2026 年獲得哪些營運資金投資或資金來源？

Yeah, the '26, I'd expect similar to prior years, which is as a percentage of sales, around 2.5%, 3%, somewhere around there for next year.

是的，2026 年的情況，我預期會和往年類似，銷售額佔比大概在 2.5% 到 3% 左右。

Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.

Sheila Kahyaoglu，傑富瑞集團。

Good morning guys and thank you. Maybe if I could ask on the commercial aftermarket. Mike, if you want, commercial aftermarket, 11% in the quarter accelerated from the 6% in Q3. So how much of that was an engine hold up, whether it was at distributors or whatnot? And as we think about '26, how do we think about passenger versus freight, engines and interiors.

各位早安，謝謝。或許我可以問問售後市場上的相關情況。麥克，如果你願意的話，商業售後市場，本季成長了 11%，比第三季的 6% 有所加速。那麼，其中有多少是由於引擎故障造成的，無論是經銷商方面的問題還是其他原因？當我們展望 2026 年時，我們該如何看待客運與貨運、引擎和內裝呢？

So we do a bottoms up forecast each of our op units, the same kind of approach we've used in the past our operating units, look at this on a customer-by-customer basis, they try to get information around inventory and demand. And that basically builds up what becomes the guidance that we provide.

因此，我們對每個營運部門進行自下而上的預測，採用與我們過去相同的方法，逐一客戶地進行預測，他們試圖獲取有關庫存和需求的資訊。而這基本上就構成了我們所提供的指導內容。

If I was looking at like the takeaway not the guidance that we give them, but kind of the takeaways back on the freight side, I think we continue to expect to see good steady growth kind of what we saw this year, available cargo tons were up at the 3% to 4% per year. I think most folks are thinking that's going to be the same.

如果我關注的是實際結果，而不是我們給他們的指導，而是貨運方面的具體情況，我認為我們將繼續預期會看到像今年一樣的良好穩定增長，可用貨物噸位每年增長 3% 至 4%。我想大多數人都會認為情況會一樣。

I mentioned interiors -- interiors, we saw refurbs kind of kick in on the US regionals. Think the general feedback that we're hearing is that we expect that to continue. But with Asia and the Middle East becoming a bigger piece of refurbs. Engines have had two solid years of growth. I think our teams are optimistic, but probably a bit conservative around how that's going to continue to go.

我提到了內裝——內飾，我們看到美國區域鐵路的翻新工程開始興起。我們得到的普遍回饋是，我們預計這種情況會持續下去。但隨著亞洲和中東在翻新改造中所佔比例越來越大。引擎產業已經連續兩年保持穩定成長。我認為我們的團隊比較樂觀，但對於事情未來的發展走向可能有點保守。

On the passenger side, we had a strong '24 and obviously, a bit weaker '25. We think that will rebound a lot. That was on the avionics side and don't see a reason that won't continue. And Biz Jet, I think we expect kind of more of the same.

在乘客方面，2024 年表現強勁，而 2025 年則明顯稍顯疲軟。我們認為它會大幅反彈。那是在航空電子設備方面，我看不出有什麼理由不繼續下去。至於公務機，我認為我們預計情況也會差不多。

Gavin Parsons, UBS.

瑞銀集團的加文·帕森斯。

Hey thanks guys good morning. If you look at your OEM kind of underlying volume, the organic basis, revenues up kind of 15%, 20% from 2019. But do you feel like on a volume basis, you're pretty aligned with OEMs at this point?

嘿，謝謝大家，早安。如果你看一下你的 OEM 廠商的基本銷量，也就是有機成長，營收比 2019 年成長了 15% 到 20%。但從銷量來看，你覺得目前你和OEM廠商的銷售量相當一致嗎？

You're talking about the commercial OEM market, are wer realigned with their build rates. So no more inventory destock. Is that the fundamental issue that you're trying to get at Gavin?

你指的是商業OEM市場，他們的生產速度已經調整完畢。所以不再進行庫存清理。這就是你想讓加文明白的根本問題嗎？

Yeah thanks.

謝謝。

Okay. I think as we sit here today, Joel can chime in. We don't see much headwind coming in the way of further inventory destock as we said last quarter, we expected this to be a temporary phenomenon that lasted for a quarter or two. We saw the blip last quarter. We don't expect much more of a headwind coming into this year. So the growth rate in commercial OEM side should be sort of what we gave in the guidance, high single-digit to mid-double digit.

好的。我認為，今天我們坐在這裡的時候，喬爾也可以發表一下看法。我們認為，進一步減少庫存不會面臨太多阻力，正如我們上個季度所說，我們預計這只是暫時的現象，只會持續一到兩個季度。上個季度我們看到了這種波動。我們預計今年不會再遇到太大的不利因素。因此，商業 OEM 方面的成長率應該與我們在指導意見中給出的預期相符，即高個位數到中兩位數。

We put probably a wider bracket around that than you typically would do, mainly just because of the way the ramp-up has been challenged so far to date. We always try to be appropriately conservative, and we've been stung a bit in the last 2-years by unforeseen events, and we don't want to get out over our skis here on the commercial OEM side this year.

我們給出的估計範圍可能比你通常給出的範圍要寬，主要是因為到目前為止，產能提升一直面臨著挑戰​​。我們一直努力保持適當的保守態度，過去兩年裡，我們受到了一些意想不到的事件的打擊，所以今年我們不想在商業 OEM 方面操之過急。

On the 200 basis points of M&A dilution, maybe you can correct my math here, but it seems like you're assuming very little margin contribution from M&A?

關於併購導致的 200 個基點的利潤稀釋，也許你可以修正我的計算，但你似乎假設併購對利潤率的貢獻非常小？

What do you mean margin contribution by M&A?

你說的併購帶來的獲利貢獻是什麼意思？

He is talking about the acquisitions.

他指的是收購事宜。

To get to 200 basis points? Yeah.

達到 200 個基點？是的。

Yeah, we are expecting very low lower than our average acquisition margins coming in for those two.

是的，我們預期這兩筆交易的收購利潤率將遠低於我們的平均收購利潤率。

Okay, appreciate it.

好的，謝謝。

Yeah. I think that's where, Gavin, they're just they're each coming into the fold as we said in the prepared remarks that probably a lower margin than you'd typically see of the average TransDigm acquisition. But in the fullness of time, we think these businesses have great potential, and that's going to improve and ramp up significantly.

是的。加文，我認為原因就在於此，正如我們在準備好的發言稿中所說，他們各自加入進來，利潤率可能比你通常在 TransDigm 收購案中看到的要低。但從長遠來看，我們認為這些企業具有巨大的潛力，而且這種潛力將會顯著改善和提升。

Seth Seifman, JPMorgan.

Seth Seifman，摩根大通。

Hey, thanks very much, and, good morning. I guess following up on the issue of underlying margin expansion and the mix headwinds you talked about for this year that limit the underlying margin expansion. Given increasing production rates over the next several years, it seems like that's a headwind to the underlying margin expansion that's going to persist or potentially accelerate.

嘿，非常感謝，早安。我想繼續探討您提到的今年限制基礎利潤率擴張的因素以及各種不利因素。鑑於未來幾年產量不斷提高，這似乎對潛在的利潤率擴張構成不利影響，而利潤率擴張將持續甚至可能加速。

And so at least for the next couple of years in this decade. The underlying margin expansion potential in the business is limited by a differential between OE and aftermarket growth rates as it is this year?

所以至少在接下來的十年中的幾年都是如此。今年，由於原廠配套市場和售後市場成長率之間的差異，該業務的潛在利潤率擴張空間受到限制。

I wouldn't say it's limited. I think we still expect to get year-over-year margin improvement. If historically, we've kind of bounded it in the 1%, 1.5% range. We'll see where things go with the OEM ramp up here and how that compares to future commercial aftermarket growth as well as what happens on the defense side.

我不會說它有限制。我認為我們仍然預期利潤率會比去年同期成長。從歷史數據來看，我們已經將其限制在 1% 到 1.5% 的範圍內。我們將觀察 OEM 廠商的產能提升情況，以及這與未來商業售後市場的成長相比如何，同時也要關注國防方面的情況。

But the margin should continue to improve year-over-year going forward, depending on the OEM, if it continues to outgrow aftermarket and defense, you could see a bit of a headwind, but we're talking about something that usually amounts to a couple of tenths of a point. It's not something that swings you negatively so much so that year-over-year margin improvement is not seen. We should still see it, to be crystal clear.

但根據原始設備製造商 (OEM) 的情況來看，利潤率應該會逐年提高。如果汽車產業繼續超越售後市場和國防市場，可能會遇到一些阻力，但我們說的通常只是零點幾個百分點而已。它不會對你的業績造成如此大的負面影響，以至於看不到同比利潤率的改善。說得更清楚些，我們還是應該看看。

Okay. Great. And just a quick clarification. I think you mentioned earlier in the call $300 million of other small tuck-in M&A. Is that Extant stuff that remains organic? Or is there an inorganic component of the sales that's coming in '26 from that additional M&A?

好的。偉大的。還有一點需要澄清。我想你之前在電話會議中提到過 3 億美元的其他小型併購交易。那是現存的、仍保持有機狀態的東西嗎？或者，2026 年的銷售額中是否存在來自額外併購的非有機成長部分？

It's a mix across a range of our outs. It's really a mixed bag of different op units that are doing small tuck-in, bolt-on acquisitions for their specific businesses. Some are at Extant, but several of them are not. These, we basically fold in as part of our planning process, they execute the deals during the year.

這是涵蓋我們一系列出局情況的混合情況。實際上，各個營運部門的情況很複雜，他們都在為自己的特定業務進行一些小規模的補充性收購。有些作品在 Extant 上有收藏，但也有些不在。這些基本上都是我們規劃流程的一部分，他們會在一年內執行這些交易。

Scott Deuschle, Deutsche Bank.

史考特‧德施勒，德意志銀行。

Hey, good morning, Mike, can you share any detail on the average contract duration at Simmonds. Just trying to get a sense for the timing of which future pricing actions layer into results.

嘿，早上好，麥克，你能透露一下西蒙茲公司平均合約期限的詳情嗎？我只是想了解未來哪些定價措施會對結果產生影響。

Yeah, I still think we're in the early innings of what business. I think that you've got the kind of typical range of contracts that you'd expect to see over the bulk of our businesses, some relatively short in some life of program I don't think this -- when you look at it, it looks dramatically different from what we'd expect to see from any acquisition we do.

是的，我仍然認為我們還處於這項業務的早期階段。我認為你們看到的合約範圍很典型，符合我們大部分業務的預期，有些合約的期限相對較短，專案週期也相對較長。我不認為——仔細觀察就會發現，這與我們預期從任何收購中看到的合約截然不同。

Okay. And Joel, just a follow-up on Myles question. Should we expect this decoupling of sales growth from headcount growth to continue beyond '26 as you make additional automation investments? Or should those realign more closely as we exit '26?

好的。喬爾，我再補充一下邁爾斯的問題。隨著你們加強自動化投資，我們是否應該預期銷售成長與員工人數成長脫鉤的現像在 2026 年以後還會持續？或者，隨著我們告別 2026 年，這些因素是否應該更緊密地重新調整？

Thank you. I think we're hopeful that if we continue to drive automation projects, we're still in the early days of doing artificial intelligence within our within the office side. I think we're optimistic that we can bolt head count certainly below the rate that our sales increase goes, how successful we are. I mean our operating unit teams focus on productivity is one of our three value drivers, and they work hard to drive our sales per employee hire each year. And so they certainly are focused on how to best do that.

謝謝。我認為我們有理由相信，如果我們繼續推進自動化項目，我們在辦公室內部應用人工智慧仍處於早期階段。我認為我們樂觀地認為，我們能夠以低於銷售額成長速度的速度削減員工人數，這完全取決於我們的成功程度。我的意思是，我們營運部門團隊專注於提高生產力，這是我們的三大價值驅動因素之一，他們努力提高我們每年每位新員工的銷售額。因此，他們當然會專注於如何最好地做到這一點。

Gautam Khanna, TD Cowen.

Gautam Khanna，TD Cowen。

Yeah, thanks. Good morning, guys. I just had two quick ones. One, I was curious if you could give us an update on the sell-in versus sell-through the how of distributors that you can -- you own what they saw in aftermarket? I may have missed it. And then secondly, I just wanted to get your broader thoughts on the War Secretaries acquisition reform speech that he gave last week. How is that at all, do you think it would impact TransDigm?

嗯，謝謝。各位早安。我剛才快速地吃了兩杯。首先，我很好奇您能否為我們介紹一下經銷商的銷售方式（即您擁有的售後市場產品）與直接銷售方式之間的差異？我可能錯過了。其次，我想了解您對上週戰爭部長發表的採購改革演講的整體看法。這到底是怎麼回事？你認為這會對 TransDigm 產生影響嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah. So on the distribution point of sale, it was up more than our underlying commercial aftermarket. A couple of reasons. Within our point-of-sale distribution, it does overweight a little bit more to engine than base TransDigm. So if you kind of reset the numbers would look about the same.

是的。因此，在分銷銷售點，其成長幅度超過了我們基礎商業售後市場的成長幅度。原因有二。在我們的銷售點分銷中，引擎的權重確實比基礎 TransDigm 略高一些。所以如果把數字重置一下，結果看起來應該都差不多。

It's just the mix of what the products are. We also had allowed inventory to drop a bit within the distribution channel at the end, we finished the year with about a half a year less of inventory in terms of half a month -- sorry, of less of inventory in the channel at the end of September than where we were the previous year, that was probably a 1-point or a 2-point impact to CAM last year.

這只是產品組合的不同而已。年底我們也允許分銷管道內的庫存略有下降，到年底時，通路內的庫存比上一年同期減少了大約半年（抱歉，應該是減少了半個月的庫存），這可能對去年的CAM產生了1到2個百分點的影響。

When it comes to the Secretaries comments, I think we're optimistic. We approach defense as a commercial manufacturer. We invest the time and effort, the money to develop new products to qualify products. We bid them as firm fixed price contracts, where we take the risk if something goes on. So I think we think we're well positioned and hopeful similar to what we've done this year with other defense wins is that we have the ability to develop good solutions for customers and generate real value.

對於部長們的評論，我認為我們持樂觀態度。我們以商業製造商的視角看待國防。我們投入時間、精力和資金來開發新產品，以使產品達到合格標準。我們以固定價格合約的形式進行投標，如果出現任何問題，風險都由我們承擔。所以我認為我們已經做好了充分的準備，並且充滿希望，就像我們今年在其他國防項目上的成功一樣，我們有能力為客戶開發良好的解決方案並創造真正的價值。

And I think as you guys know, we're not doing the big cost-plus work here. We're fast, nimble at the of unit level easy to work with and mostly selling commercial type solutions.

我想你們也知道，我們在這裡並沒有進行大規模的成本加成工作。我們速度快、反應靈活，易於合作，並且主要銷售商業類型的解決方案。

Ronald Epstein, Bank of America.

羅納德·愛潑斯坦，美國銀行。

Yeah, to a follow-up. The first one, yes, just following up on the last question with Gautam's question and also Kristine's, I think, trying to get at. So if you can say -- so F-47 is the first major new program we've seen in a while.

是的，需要後續跟進。是的，第一個問題只是 Gautam 和 Kristine 的最後一個問題的補充，我想，他們想表達的是…所以可以說——F-47 是我們一段時間以來看到的第一個重大新項目。

If you can answer these, was your experience bidding for the work on it any different than it was on any previous programs? I mean I think the fear out there is, and you probably understand this, that somehow that the DoD is doing things that are going to make things somehow less profitable or something like that?

如果您能回答這些問題，您參與該專案投標的經驗與先前參與其他專案的經驗有何不同？我的意思是，我認為大家普遍擔心的是（你可能也明白這一點），國防部正在做一些事情，這些事情會降低某些方面的盈利能力，或者諸如此類的事情？

I mean was the bidding process sort of how you would expect it? Or was it somehow different than it was in the past?

我的意思是，競標過程是否符合你的期望？或者說，它與過去有所不同？

I think the way -- obviously, we have a multitude of op units who are all participating in awards like this and frequently interact with the primes and the others on the defense side. And the process was similar to what we've seen in the past and didn't play out with any big changes versus what we'd expect.

我認為這種方式——顯然，我們有很多作戰單位都參與了這樣的獎項評選，並且經常與主要單位和防禦方面的其他人互動。整個過程與我們過去所見的類似，並沒有出現任何與我們預期不同的重大變化。

Good to know. Good to know. And then maybe just as a follow-on, and people have been talking about this. There is a case out there that somehow that TransDigm just won't grow their aftermarket business like maybe some peers will because you guys don't have enough engine exposure that somehow you're too big to do M&A and have it be meaningful. How would you respond to that?

知道了。知道了。然後，也許可以作為後續討論，人們一直在談論這件事。有一種說法是，TransDigm 的售後市場業務發展可能不如一些同行，因為你們在引擎領域的業務拓展不足，所以你們規模太大，無法進行有意義的併購。你會如何回應？

I mean if someone confronted you with that and said, hey, you guys are just getting too big and nothings really going to move the needle, and that is sort of the bear case. What -- how would you respond to that?

我的意思是，如果有人當面跟你說：「嘿，你們規模太大了，什麼都改變不了現狀了。」這就是悲觀的說法。什麼？你會如何回應？

I think we're the type who just puts our heads down and goes out and finds ways to create value. That's it. The proof's in the pudding, the results we drive here as a team and not hand waving responses. We'll just put our heads down and go to work.

我認為我們是那種埋頭苦幹，努力尋找創造價值方法的人。就是這樣。事實勝於雄辯，我們作為一個團隊在這裡所取得的成果才是最好的證明，而不是空泛的回應。我們只管埋頭苦幹。

Got it. And if I may, is it safe to infer from that? Like if an environment you got into that something just wasn't working, you'd make some changes, right?

知道了。請問，從這個推論是否安全？例如，如果你身處一個環境，​​發現某些方面行不通，你就會做出一些改變，對吧？

Well, we're always -- we're going to do. We're going to operate the business to go and create value and do what we can to drive prudent long-term value for our shareholders, with whom we're closely aligned.

嗯，我們一直──我們打算這麼做。我們將以創造價值為目標來經營業務，並盡我們所能為股東創造審慎的長期價值，我們與股東的利益高度一致。

Jonathan Siegmann, Stifel

喬納森·西格曼，斯蒂費爾

Hey, good morning. Thanks for fitting me in. Just on defense, just a lot of talk about new missile programs and drones, you guys have highlighted your good positions on the Predator and the Patriot, just -- where do you fit on some of these newer lower-cost programs? Is that an opportunity for TransDigm recognizing you're not going to be on the lowest small spend, but how about some of these new programs on the medium size and cost range.

嘿，早安。謝謝你安排我過來。就國防而言，大家都在談論新的飛彈計畫和無人機，你們也強調了你們在「掠食者」和「愛國者」飛彈系統上的良好立場，那麼──你們對一些更新、成本更低的計畫持什麼態度呢？TransDigm 意識到您可能無法在最低的小額支出範圍內開展業務，那麼對於一些中等規模和成本範圍的新專案來說，這是否是一個機會呢？

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Yeah, I don't want to provide any specifics because I don't know what we can or can't say on some of these similar like the F-47. We've got some really solid wins on some of the programs you're referring to. Again, if they're looking for good, highly engineered products that solve problems that provide features that other folks can't are, we have a lot of engineers.

是的，我不想提供任何具體細節，因為我不知道對於像 F-47 這樣的類似機型，我們能說什麼或不能說什麼。我們確實在你們提到的某些項目中取得了一些非常紮實的勝利。再說一遍，如果他們正在尋找能夠解決問題並提供其他人無法提供的功能的優質、高度工程化的產品，我們有很多工程師。

I mean roughly, what, 15% of our entire corporation are on the engineering side, designing and developing products. So yeah, I think we've got some really solid wins and hopefully we'll be able to talk to in upcoming quarters in some of the programs you're referring to. So I think we like our opportunities there.

我的意思是，我們公司大約有 15% 的員工從事工程方面的工作，負責產品的設計和開發。是的，我認為我們取得了一些非常紮實的勝利，希望在接下來的幾個季度裡，我們能夠和你們提到的一些項目進行交流。所以我覺得我們很看好在那裡的發展機會。

Thank you. This concludes our Q&A session. I would like to now turn it back to Jaimie Stemen for closing remarks.

謝謝。問答環節到此結束。現在我謹將發言權交還給傑米·斯特曼，請她作總結發言。

Thank you all for joining us today. This concludes the call. We appreciate your time and enjoy the rest of your day.

感謝各位今天蒞臨。通話到此結束。感謝您抽出時間，祝您一天餘下的時間愉快。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接了。