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Operator
Operator
Greetings, and welcome to the Gannett Fourth Quarter Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions)
大家好,歡迎來到 Gannett 第四季度財報電話會議。 (操作員說明)
It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Matthew Esposito. Thank you, Mr. Esposito, you may begin.
現在我很高興向您介紹主持人 Matthew Esposito。謝謝 Esposito 先生,您可以開始了。
Matthew Esposito
Matthew Esposito
Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call today to discuss Gannett's fourth quarter 2022 results. Presenting on today's call will be Mike Reed, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Doug Horne, Chief Financial Officer. During this call, we will discuss Gannett's financial results for the quarter. If you navigate to the Gannett website, you will find that we have posted an earnings supplement in addition to our earlier press release. We will be referencing it today on the call as it provides you with additional detail on this quarter's performance.
謝謝。大家早上好,感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議,討論 Gannett 2022 年第四季度的業績。出席今天電話會議的有董事長兼首席執行官邁克·里德 (Mike Reed);首席財務官 Doug Horne。在此電話會議中,我們將討論 Gannett 本季度的財務業績。如果您瀏覽 Gannett 網站,您會發現除了我們之前的新聞稿之外,我們還發布了一份收益增補。我們今天將在電話會議上引用它,因為它為您提供了有關本季度業績的更多詳細信息。
Before we begin, please let me remind you that this call is being recorded. In addition, certain statements made during this call are or may be deemed to be forward-looking statements, including those with respect to future results and events and are based upon current expectations. These statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results and events to differ materially from those discussed today. We encourage you to read the cautionary statement regarding forward-looking statements in the earnings supplement as well as the risk factors described in Gannett's filings made with the SEC. Except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to publicly update or correct any of the forward-looking statements made during this call.
在我們開始之前,請讓我提醒您,此通話正在錄音中。此外,本次電話會議期間作出的某些陳述是或可能被視為前瞻性陳述,包括與未來結果和事件相關的陳述,這些陳述基於當前預期。這些陳述涉及風險和不確定性,可能導致實際結果和事件與今天討論的結果和事件存在重大差異。我們鼓勵您閱讀收益增補中有關前瞻性陳述的警示性聲明,以及 Gannett 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中描述的風險因素。除非法律要求,否則我們不承擔公開更新或更正本次電話會議期間所做的任何前瞻性陳述的義務。
In addition, we will be discussing non-GAAP financial information during the call, including same-store revenues, free cash flow, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin and adjusted net income attributable to Gannett. You can find reconciliations of our non-GAAP measures to the most comparable U.S. GAAP measures in the earnings supplement.
此外,我們將在電話會議期間討論非 GAAP 財務信息,包括同店收入、自由現金流、調整後的 EBITDA、調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率和調整後歸屬於 Gannett 的淨收入。您可以在收益補充中找到我們的非 GAAP 措施與最具可比性的美國 GAAP 措施的調節。
Lastly, I would like to remind you that nothing on this call constitutes an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase any interest in Gannett. The webcast and audio cast are copyrighted material of Gannett and may not be duplicated, reproduced or rebroadcasted without prior written consent.
最後,我想提醒您,本次電話會議的任何內容均不構成出售要約或購買 Gannett 任何權益的要約邀請。網絡廣播和音頻廣播是 Gannett 受版權保護的材料,未經事先書面同意,不得複制、轉載或轉播。
With that, I would like to turn the call over to Mike Reed, Gannett's Chairman and CEO.
有了這個,我想把電話轉給 Gannett 的董事長兼首席執行官邁克里德。
Michael E. Reed - Chairman, CEO & President
Michael E. Reed - Chairman, CEO & President
Thanks, Matt. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking the time this morning to join us on our call. We are entering 2023 with a lot of optimism, and you'll hear that throughout the call today. Adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter increased substantially over the third quarter, and we believe sets us up for adjusted EBITDA growth in 2023 of approximately 10% to 15% year-over-year. We'll walk through the details later, but we expect significant free cash flow growth in 2023 as well.
謝謝,馬特。大家,早安。感謝您今天早上抽出時間加入我們的電話會議。我們滿懷樂觀地進入 2023 年,您會在今天的整個電話會議中聽到這一點。第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 比第三季度大幅增長,我們相信 2023 年調整後的 EBITDA 同比增長約 10% 至 15%。我們稍後會詳細介紹,但我們預計 2023 年自由現金流也會顯著增長。
We're seeing improving revenue trends early in Q1 and we've announced a few exciting new partnerships that drive immediate revenue opportunities that are also very high-margin deals. We've paid down significant debt in 2022, and we expect to repay at least another $120 million of debt in 2023. And we expect at the end of 2023, our first lien net debt will be less than 2x EBITDA. And our digital businesses are showing consistent growth.
我們在第一季度初看到了收入趨勢的改善,並且我們已經宣布了一些令人興奮的新合作夥伴關係,這些合作夥伴關係可以帶來直接的收入機會,同時也是利潤率非常高的交易。我們已經在 2022 年償還了大量債務,我們預計在 2023 年至少再償還 1.2 億美元的債務。我們預計到 2023 年底,我們的第一筆留置權淨債務將低於 EBITDA 的 2 倍。我們的數字業務呈現持續增長。
Of course, we're happy to turn the page on 2022, it was a tough year, but we are excited about the momentum that we are carrying into 2023. 2022 was a year of unanticipated volatility and of course, high inflation. Despite these challenges, we made great strides with the business. We focused on what we could control, providing unique and relevant content to our readers, helping local businesses find, convert and keep customers as well as taking the necessary actions to significantly lower our cost structure. As a result, fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA grew nearly $40 million over the third quarter.
當然,我們很高興在 2022 年翻開新的一頁,這是艱難的一年,但我們對進入 2023 年的勢頭感到興奮。2022 年是充滿意外波動的一年,當然還有高通脹。儘管面臨這些挑戰,我們還是在業務方面取得了長足進步。我們專注於我們可以控制的內容,為我們的讀者提供獨特和相關的內容,幫助當地企業尋找、轉換和留住客戶,並採取必要的行動來顯著降低我們的成本結構。因此,第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 比第三季度增長了近 4000 萬美元。
Digital-only subscription revenue grew nearly 30% year-over-year and we saw new highs across several key metrics in our digital marketing solutions business. We are focused on the investments needed to support the growth areas of our business and still believe we will reach the revenue inflection point in 2024 and create long-term sustainable growth from there. We also continued to repay debt. As I mentioned, we repaid $147 million of debt in 2022, and we've already paid another $22 million of debt so far in 2023. Since the acquisition of Gannett back in November of 2019, we have repaid over 1/3 of that debt while also significantly lowering our cost of capital.
純數字訂閱收入同比增長近 30%,我們在數字營銷解決方案業務的幾個關鍵指標上創下新高。我們專注於支持我們業務增長領域所需的投資,並且仍然相信我們將在 2024 年達到收入拐點,並從那裡創造長期可持續增長。我們還繼續償還債務。正如我提到的,我們在 2022 年償還了 1.47 億美元的債務,到 2023 年為止我們已經償還了另外 2200 萬美元的債務。自 2019 年 11 月收購 Gannett 以來,我們已經償還了超過 1/3 的債務同時還顯著降低了我們的資金成本。
For the full year, we generated $2.9 billion in total operating revenues and approximately 35% of that revenue came from digital sources, and that grew 1.8% year-over-year on a same-store basis. We are very proud to have grown digital revenues despite the continued slowdown in the digital advertising marketplace and while many of our -- and many of our pure-play digital peers have actually witnessed revenue declines. This really speaks to the importance of revenue diversification in the digital ecosystem, particularly in recurring revenue streams, such as our digital-only subscription revenue and our digital marketing solutions business.
全年,我們產生了 29 億美元的總營業收入,其中約 35% 的收入來自數字來源,同店同比增長 1.8%。儘管數字廣告市場持續放緩,而且我們的許多 - 以及我們的許多純數字同行實際上目睹了收入下降,但我們為數字收入的增長感到非常自豪。這確實說明了數字生態系統中收入多元化的重要性,特別是在經常性收入流中,例如我們的純數字訂閱收入和我們的數字營銷解決方案業務。
Turning to 2023, we believe we are well positioned to grow adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow as well as improve our revenue trends. We created a lower and more variable cost base in the second half of 2022, which we expect will translate into annual savings of at least $220 million in 2023.
談到 2023 年,我們相信我們有能力增加調整後的 EBITDA 和自由現金流,並改善我們的收入趨勢。我們在 2022 年下半年建立了一個更低、更可變的成本基礎,我們預計這將在 2023 年轉化為每年至少節省 2.2 億美元。
Our cash obligations tied to items such as pension and reorganization costs are expected to decrease by over $60 million year-over-year and should provide a substantial uplift to our free cash flow. Our digital businesses are expected to continue to perform well and represent valuable recurring revenue streams. In addition, we are creating incremental revenue streams through partnerships with top-tier organizations, and we are optimizing our local content, and we believe we are positioned to better monetize our sports verticals. All of these things are building blocks for growth for the growth we expect in 2023.
我們與養老金和重組成本等項目相關的現金義務預計將同比減少超過 6000 萬美元,並且應該會大大提高我們的自由現金流。我們的數字業務預計將繼續表現良好,並代表著寶貴的經常性收入來源。此外,我們正在通過與頂級組織的合作創造增量收入流,我們正在優化我們的本地內容,我們相信我們有能力更好地通過我們的體育垂直市場獲利。所有這些都是我們預期 2023 年增長的基石。
As you may remember, the macro pressures that we experienced for much of 2022 did not begin until the second quarter, which will mean the first quarter of '23 will have tougher revenue comparisons to the prior year. However, starting in the second quarter of this year, we expect to benefit from more favorable year-over-year comparisons which combined with the anticipated growth of our digital businesses and the flow-through of our cost management program is expected to result in full year 2023 adjusted EBITDA growth I mentioned of about 10% to 15% and free cash flow growth approaching nearly $100 million. Doug will go into more detail later on the call on our full year 2023 guidance and how we believe the foundation we built in '22 is expected to set us up for success this year.
您可能還記得,我們在 2022 年的大部分時間裡經歷的宏觀壓力直到第二季度才開始,這意味著 23 年第一季度的收入與上一年相比將更加艱難。然而,從今年第二季度開始,我們預計將受益於更有利的同比比較,再加上我們數字業務的預期增長以及我們成本管理計劃的實施預計將導致全面我提到的 2023 年調整後 EBITDA 增長約為 10% 至 15%,自由現金流增長接近近 1 億美元。道格稍後將在電話會議上詳細介紹我們的 2023 年全年指導方針,以及我們如何相信我們在 22 年建立的基礎有望為我們今年的成功奠定基礎。
We are excited to build on the momentum of our execution, fourth quarter performance and improved capital structure. We have a clear vision and strategy, and I'd like to spend a few minutes outlining it for you.
我們很高興能夠在我們的執行勢頭、第四季度業績和改善的資本結構的基礎上再接再厲。我們有一個清晰的願景和戰略,我想花幾分鐘時間為您概述一下。
We made tremendous progress on our strategic priorities last year. Digital-only subscriptions grew to $2.03 million during the fourth quarter. And since the second quarter of 2022, paid digital-only subscriptions have outnumbered our full-access print subscriptions. And in the back half of 2022, we have grown our overall total number of subscriptions on a combined basis. The growth of our overall paid consumer base across print and digital marks a meaningful inflection point in our consumer business, and we believe this will be a key component in driving total revenue growth by the end of 2024.
去年,我們在戰略重點方面取得了巨大進展。第四季度純數字訂閱增長到 203 萬美元。自 2022 年第二季度以來,付費數字訂閱的數量已經超過了我們的完全訪問印刷版訂閱。在 2022 年下半年,我們的訂閱總數在綜合基礎上有所增長。我們在印刷和數字領域的整體付費消費者群的增長標誌著我們消費者業務的一個重要轉折點,我們相信這將是到 2024 年底推動總收入增長的關鍵組成部分。
In Q4, traditionally our lowest quarter for net new digital-only paid subscribers, we added 47,000 new subscribers and we added approximately 400,000 net new digital subscribers for the full year of 2022. During the fourth quarter, we continued to grow our total registered users and newsletter subscribers as well. We ended the quarter with 5.9 million registered users and 8.5 million newsletter subscribers, which represents meaningful growth of 60% and 25%, respectively, year-over-year. Both continue to be important customer acquisition and subscriber engagement channels for us with low cost of acquisition.
在第四季度,傳統上我們新增純數字付費用戶的最低季度,我們增加了 47,000 名新用戶,並在 2022 年全年增加了約 400,000 名淨新數字用戶。在第四季度,我們的註冊用戶總數繼續增長和時事通訊訂閱者。本季度末,我們擁有 590 萬註冊用戶和 850 萬通訊訂閱者,分別同比增長 60% 和 25%。兩者仍然是我們重要的客戶獲取和訂戶參與渠道,獲取成本低。
While growing digital-only subscriptions remains one of our top priorities, we have adopted a more balanced approach between increasing profitability and growing subscribers. We will continue to pursue subscriptions growth, but we will be more targeted in our acquisition strategy. During 2022, we experimented with several offer strategies and rate structures. As a result, we are learning which offers performed well in both the near term and which are expected to perform well in the long term. Based on all of the learnings of the various tests, we intend to focus our subscription acquisition efforts on acquiring highly engaged, long-term and more profitable subscribers.
雖然增加純數字訂閱仍然是我們的首要任務之一,但我們在提高盈利能力和增加訂閱者之間採取了更加平衡的方法。我們將繼續追求訂閱增長,但我們的收購戰略將更具針對性。在 2022 年期間,我們嘗試了幾種報價策略和費率結構。因此,我們正在了解哪些產品在短期內表現良好,哪些產品有望在長期內表現良好。基於對各種測試的所有了解,我們打算將我們的訂閱獲取工作重點放在獲取高度參與、長期和更有利可圖的訂閱者上。
During the first half of 2023, we will be focusing our efforts on consumer acquisition and retention improvement. We will be modulating back our paid acquisition strategy during this time as well and expect to lower our marketing spend while also -- while our product enhancements begin to take effect. Having said that, we still expect to see significant growth in digital-only subscriptions and revenue during 2023.
2023 年上半年,我們將集中精力提高消費者獲取和保留率。在此期間,我們也將調整我們的付費收購策略,並期望降低我們的營銷支出,同時 - 同時我們的產品增強功能開始生效。話雖如此,我們仍然預計 2023 年純數字訂閱和收入將出現顯著增長。
We have learned an incredible amount from our first year of USA TODAY as a subscription product. At the start of its launch, we prioritized subscriber volume growth over advertising monetization. Given our learnings, we have refined our strategy to be more balanced, which we believe will lead to improved overall USA TODAY monetization and profitability versus purely subscriber growth. The new balanced approach will bring a larger audience into our ecosystem and we will be able to monetize these visitors, not only through digital advertising, but also through strategic partnerships. As a result, we expect lower subscription acquisition at USA TODAY, but an overall increase in revenue and profitability.
作為訂閱產品,我們從第一年的《今日美國》中學到了很多東西。在推出之初,我們將訂戶數量增長置於廣告貨幣化之上。鑑於我們的經驗教訓,我們改進了我們的戰略以使其更加平衡,我們相信這將導致《今日美國》的整體貨幣化和盈利能力得到改善,而不是單純的用戶增長。新的平衡方法將為我們的生態系統帶來更多的受眾,我們將能夠通過數字廣告和戰略合作夥伴關係從這些訪客中獲利。因此,我們預計《今日美國》的訂閱量會減少,但收入和盈利能力會整體增加。
Local markets are expected to continue to drive most of our subscription growth and already account for over 90% of our current subscribers. And we believe we still have significant opportunity in these local communities since the local subscribers we have today only represent approximately 3% of our digital local audience as of the end of 2022.
本地市場預計將繼續推動我們的大部分訂閱增長,並且已經占我們當前訂閱者的 90% 以上。我們相信我們在這些當地社區仍然擁有重要的機會,因為截至 2022 年底,我們今天擁有的當地訂戶僅占我們數字當地觀眾的 3% 左右。
Turning back to the USA TODAY for a minute, we plan to balance monetization across the platform. With USA TODAY's clear, concise, incredible approach to journalism, we believe USA TODAY has the potential to be the top digital news and content destination in the United States. Given its large organic audience, delivering over half of the 133 million unique visitors to our digital platform on average each month in the U.S., we will use USA TODAY more extensively to guide people into our ecosystem, help create bundles, serve as product extensions for games and sports and create a subscription-based value proposition for our local offerings.
暫時回到《今日美國》,我們計劃平衡整個平台的貨幣化。憑藉《今日美國》清晰、簡潔、令人難以置信的新聞報導方式,我們相信《今日美國》有潛力成為美國頂級數字新聞和內容目的地。鑑於其龐大的有機受眾,在美國平均每月向我們的數字平台提供 1.33 億獨立訪問者中的一半以上,我們將更廣泛地使用《今日美國》來引導人們進入我們的生態系統,幫助創建捆綁包,作為產品擴展遊戲和體育,並為我們的本地產品創建基於訂閱的價值主張。
In addition to the success of our digital subscription efforts, our digital marketing solutions business again drove impressive results in Q4. We achieved core platform revenues of $119.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2022, increasing 8.7% year-over-year, and we continue to maintain double-digit adjusted EBITDA margins. Customer count, ARPU and budget retention, all grew year-over-year.
除了我們的數字訂閱工作取得成功外,我們的數字營銷解決方案業務在第四季度再次取得了令人矚目的成果。我們在 2022 年第四季度實現了 1.197 億美元的核心平台收入,同比增長 8.7%,我們繼續保持兩位數的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率。客戶數量、ARPU 和預算保留率均同比增長。
The majority of our revenue in the DMS segment continues to be recurring and structured on evergreen contracts, with monthly customer budget retention rates of 95%. We continue to expand our DMS product offerings through our freemium channel to help SMBs have greater control over how they interact with their customers, including our recently launched scheduling tools, which makes booking appointments simple and enables businesses to accept online appointments 24/7.
我們在 DMS 部門的大部分收入繼續重複出現,並根據常青合同構建,每月客戶預算保留率為 95%。我們繼續通過我們的免費增值渠道擴展我們的 DMS 產品,以幫助 SMB 更好地控制他們與客戶的互動方式,包括我們最近推出的日程安排工具,它使預約變得簡單,並使企業能夠 24/7 全天候接受在線預約。
Since we launched our freemium channel in 2021, we have seen significant growth in the number of registered users, thanks to these and other initiatives. As many of you are aware, we launched the channel in '21 and as we ended 2021, we had less than 1,000 registered users. We're ending 2022 with 55,000 registered users and that number more than tripled from Q3 to Q4. So you can see the growth trajectory in that -- in our freemium channel. Our freemium customer business is an important lever for future growth as these are businesses that have registered with us and are engaged with our platform and our products and our growth channel outside our traditional lead gen channels. Moving forward, we expect the freemium capabilities throughout 2023 in connection with do-it-yourself and buy online products that will deliver a quality marketing solution for lower-tier marketing budgets and a lower cost of sale and service. We do expect to continue to expand these capabilities in '23.
自從我們在 2021 年推出免費增值渠道以來,由於這些舉措和其他舉措,我們的註冊用戶數量有了顯著增長。正如你們許多人所知,我們在 2021 年推出了該頻道,到 2021 年底,我們的註冊用戶還不到 1,000 人。到 2022 年底,我們將擁有 55,000 名註冊用戶,這個數字從第三季度到第四季度增長了兩倍多。所以你可以在我們的免費增值渠道中看到增長軌跡。我們的免費增值客戶業務是未來增長的重要槓桿,因為這些業務已在我們這裡註冊,並在我們的傳統潛在客戶生成渠道之外使用我們的平台和產品以及我們的增長渠道。展望未來,我們預計到 2023 年,與自己動手和購買在線產品相關的免費增值功能將為較低級別的營銷預算和較低的銷售和服務成本提供優質的營銷解決方案。我們確實希望在 23 年繼續擴展這些功能。
Our 2022 financial results reflect an important year for our DMS business as it represented the most profitable year-to-date in the segment's history. So despite advertising budgets being tightened across the country, we believe these results demonstrate that our efficient data-driven solutions with in-depth analytics and attributions yielded tangible results for our customers. We are proud of the progress we made in 2022 and believe our dedication to helping local businesses unlock their potential, makes our LOCALiQ digital marketing platform, an indispensable partner to thousands of SMBs.
我們 2022 年的財務業績反映了我們 DMS 業務的重要一年,因為它代表了該部門歷史上迄今為止最賺錢的一年。因此,儘管全國范圍內的廣告預算都在收緊,但我們相信這些結果表明,我們高效的數據驅動解決方案以及深入的分析和歸因為我們的客戶帶來了切實的成果。我們為我們在 2022 年取得的進步感到自豪,並相信我們致力於幫助本地企業釋放潛力,這使我們的 LOCALiQ 數字營銷平台成為成千上萬中小企業不可或缺的合作夥伴。
I'm incredibly grateful to Kris Barton, the President of LOCALiQ for his leadership driving this platform and developing an extremely talented team of leaders. While Kris will be leaving Gannett next month to pursue his passion of becoming a CEO, we expect this positive impact will continue to fuel the team and business. Under Chris' guidance, we have achieved significant milestones and he has helped further position LOCALiQ as a competitive leader in the industry. We have begun an executive search for Chris' replacement, but his leadership team, including our Chief Revenue Officer and Chief Customer Officer have well over 30 years of combined experience in the Marketing Solutions business. We remain well positioned with a talented and experienced leadership team in place, and we remain confident in our ability to execute on our strategic plans in 2023 and beyond.
我非常感謝 LOCALiQ 總裁克里斯·巴頓 (Kris Barton) 的領導,他推動了這個平台的發展,並培養了一支極具才華的領導團隊。雖然 Kris 將於下個月離開 Gannett 去追求他成為 CEO 的熱情,但我們預計這種積極影響將繼續為團隊和業務提供動力。在 Chris 的指導下,我們取得了重要的里程碑,他幫助進一步將 LOCALiQ 定位為行業中的競爭領導者。我們已經開始尋找克里斯的繼任者,但他的領導團隊,包括我們的首席營收官和首席客戶官,在營銷解決方案業務方面擁有超過 30 年的綜合經驗。我們仍然擁有一支才華橫溢、經驗豐富的領導團隊,我們仍然處於有利地位,我們仍然相信我們有能力在 2023 年及以後執行我們的戰略計劃。
We've been on an incredible journey to evolve LOCALiQ's brand identity and positioning to showcase the commitment to helping customers transform their businesses through the power of digital marketing. Last year, we shared the beginning of the brand evolution with our first brand advertising campaign, highlighting businesses who benefited from the LOCALiQ platform. And earlier this month, we launched a new website, which unifies the LOCALiQ brand promise and highlights the digital solutions that help businesses seize their full potential using LOCALiQ's advanced digital platform. On our new LOCALiQ website, you can find rebuilt product pages that more clearly [explaining] the features and benefits of each of our solutions and how they work to help businesses reach their specific marketing goals, along with more information about how the LOCALiQ platform uses proprietary marketing technology, data and expertise to help its customers.
我們一直在進行令人難以置信的旅程,以發展 LOCALiQ 的品牌標識和定位,以展示通過數字營銷的力量幫助客戶實現業務轉型的承諾。去年,我們通過我們的第一個品牌廣告活動分享了品牌演變的開始,突出了從 LOCALiQ 平台中受益的企業。本月早些時候,我們推出了一個新網站,該網站統一了 LOCALiQ 的品牌承諾,並重點介紹了可幫助企業利用 LOCALiQ 先進的數字平台充分發揮潛力的數字解決方案。在我們新的 LOCALiQ 網站上,您可以找到重建的產品頁面,這些頁面更清楚地 [解釋] 我們每個解決方案的特性和優勢以及它們如何幫助企業實現其特定營銷目標,以及有關 LOCALiQ 平台如何使用的更多信息專有營銷技術、數據和專業知識,以幫助其客戶。
We have also been laser-focused on increasing the overall monetization of our content platform. And a key piece of this strategy is growth through new partnerships that bring in both new audience and revenue streams. The strength of the USA TODAY brand and audience creates a unique opportunity to work with top-tier organizations across subscriptions, affiliate and content partnerships. We are very excited about the 2 new partnerships we have recently launched in 2023 with Gambling.com and Forbes marketplace platforms. Both of these will allow us to provide additional sports and consumer financial services content to our readers, while also allowing us to immediately monetize our large organic audience of 133 million uniques.
我們也一直專注於提高內容平台的整體貨幣化。這一戰略的一個關鍵部分是通過新的合作夥伴關係實現增長,從而帶來新的受眾和收入來源。 《今日美國》品牌和受眾的實力創造了一個獨特的機會,可以通過訂閱、聯盟和內容合作夥伴關係與頂級組織合作。我們對最近在 2023 年與 Gambling.com 和福布斯市場平台建立的 2 個新合作夥伴關係感到非常興奮。這兩者都將使我們能夠為我們的讀者提供更多的體育和消費金融服務內容,同時也使我們能夠立即從我們 1.33 億獨特的龐大有機受眾中獲利。
These affiliate partners -- affiliate partnerships such as these provide great content to our audience and are expected to be immediately accretive to our total revenue and free cash flow. We intend to roll out additional partnerships in the future where we can leverage our platform to create additional growth in audience and revenue, and you'll hear more on these in the quarters to come.
這些附屬合作夥伴——諸如此類的附屬合作夥伴為我們的觀眾提供了很好的內容,預計將立即增加我們的總收入和自由現金流。我們打算在未來推出更多的合作夥伴關係,我們可以利用我們的平台來創造更多的觀眾和收入增長,你會在接下來的幾個季度聽到更多關於這些的信息。
Finally, as we enter 2023, we are renewing our commitment to our local operations and our local communities. Gannett serves over 200 local communities, and our commitment is to build community connections by helping advertisers and readers stay informed, connected and engaged. We believe by leaning further into our local connections, we will not only better serve our audiences, but we will also drive better operating performance.
最後,在我們進入 2023 年之際,我們將重申我們對當地業務和當地社區的承諾。 Gannett 為 200 多個當地社區提供服務,我們的承諾是通過幫助廣告商和讀者保持知情、聯繫和參與來建立社區聯繫。我們相信,通過進一步依賴我們的本地聯繫,我們不僅會更好地為我們的觀眾服務,而且還會推動更好的運營績效。
We are confident in our belief that we have entered 2023 with great plans in place. We believe our digital-only subscription revenue and digital marketing solutions revenue are poised for significant growth. Our focus on creating a lower and more variable cost base going forward, combined with sustainable growth in our core digital revenue streams, positions us well for our anticipated adjusted EBITDA growth and free cash flow growth. With anticipated improving free cash flow and a strong balance sheet, we believe we are well positioned to navigate any near-term headwinds that may persist and continue our evolution to a customer-first subscription-led business powered by data and content.
我們有信心進入 2023 年,並製定了宏偉的計劃。我們相信我們的純數字訂閱收入和數字營銷解決方案收入有望實現顯著增長。我們專注於創造一個更低、更可變的成本基礎,結合我們核心數字收入流的可持續增長,使我們在預期的調整後 EBITDA 增長和自由現金流增長方面處於有利地位。隨著預期的自由現金流改善和強勁的資產負債表,我們相信我們有能力應對任何可能持續存在的短期逆風,並繼續我們向以數據和內容為動力的客戶至上的訂閱主導業務發展。
I'm now going to turn the call over to Doug to provide additional detail and color around 2022 fourth quarter and our full year 2023 guidance. Doug?
我現在將電話轉給道格,以提供 2022 年第四季度左右的更多細節和顏色以及我們 2023 年全年的指導。道格?
Douglas Edward Horne - CFO & CAO
Douglas Edward Horne - CFO & CAO
Thank you, Mike, and good morning, everybody. As Mike mentioned a moment ago, in Q4, we drove significant sequential improvement to our adjusted EBITDA from Q3. As a result of our robust cost management program, we improved our adjusted EBITDA margin in the fourth quarter by over 500 basis points sequentially. And importantly, we expect to see continued improvement during 2023.
謝謝邁克,大家早上好。正如邁克剛才提到的那樣,在第四季度,我們從第三季度開始對調整後的 EBITDA 進行了顯著的連續改進。由於我們強大的成本管理計劃,我們在第四季度將調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率連續提高了 500 多個基點。重要的是,我們預計 2023 年會持續改善。
For Q4, total operating revenues were $730.7 million, a decrease of 11.6% as compared to the prior year quarter and a decline of 10.3% on a same-store basis. This is down slightly from the 9% year-over-year same-store revenue decline in the third quarter as a result of the pressures in our print and digital advertising revenues. Also, given the strength of the U.S. dollar relative to the U.K. pound, currency translation negatively impacted our reported revenue by $9.4 million or about 114 basis points as compared to the prior year period.
第四季度總營業收入為 7.307 億美元,比去年同期下降 11.6%,同店下降 10.3%。由於印刷和數字廣告收入的壓力,第三季度同店收入同比下降 9%,略有下降。此外,鑑於美元相對於英鎊的強勢,與去年同期相比,貨幣換算對我們報告的收入產生了 940 萬美元或約 114 個基點的負面影響。
Adjusted EBITDA totaled $90.4 million in the fourth quarter, a decrease of 21.7% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 12.4% compared to 14% in the prior year quarter. In the fourth quarter, we continue to be impacted by inflationary pressures, which we estimate negatively impacted Q4 by approximately $25 million as compared to the prior year period. However, we have seen the largest cost pressures, namely newsprint and distribution costs peak and stabilize, and we believe that the worst is behind us in terms of inflation. We expect labor and newsprint costs in 2023 to remain relatively stable to the pricing at year-end 2022.
第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 總計 9040 萬美元,同比下降 21.7%。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 12.4%,而去年同期為 14%。在第四季度,我們繼續受到通貨膨脹壓力的影響,我們估計與去年同期相比,第四季度的負面影響約為 2500 萬美元。然而,我們已經看到最大的成本壓力,即新聞紙和發行成本見頂並趨於穩定,我們相信通脹方面最糟糕的情況已經過去。我們預計 2023 年的勞動力和新聞紙成本將相對於 2022 年底的定價保持相對穩定。
Factoring in the Q4 impact, we estimate that inflationary pressures on distribution, newsprint, fuel and utilities negatively impacted our full-year 2022 results by approximately $100 million. As we have seen costs stabilize, we expect that we will largely cycle the year-over-year impacts of these increases early in 2023. On a sequential basis, adjusted EBITDA increased $38.4 million, representing substantial growth over Q3, well beyond the traditional seasonality. The strong improvement in adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margin from Q3 to Q4 reflects both the seasonally stronger revenue and the momentum of our cost management initiatives. We took significant actions in Q3 and Q4 to operate more efficiently. Through these steps, which had an impact on both our headcount and our non-payroll expenses, we were able to create a more flexible cost structure and effectively adjust our expenses in response to the revenue trends.
考慮到第四季度的影響,我們估計分銷、新聞紙、燃料和公用事業的通脹壓力對我們 2022 年全年業績產生了約 1 億美元的負面影響。正如我們所看到的成本穩定,我們預計我們將在 2023 年初大致循環這些增長的同比影響。按順序計算,調整後的 EBITDA 增加了 3840 萬美元,比第三季度大幅增長,遠遠超過傳統的季節性.從第三季度到第四季度,調整後 EBITDA 和調整後 EBITDA 利潤率的強勁改善反映了季節性強勁的收入和我們成本管理計劃的勢頭。我們在第三季度和第四季度採取了重大行動來提高運營效率。通過這些對我們的員工人數和非工資支出都有影響的步驟,我們能夠創建更靈活的成本結構,並根據收入趨勢有效地調整我們的支出。
As a result of our cost management initiatives, we recognized $16 million in benefits in the third quarter, $49 million in the fourth quarter and anticipate at least $220 million in savings during 2023. The focus of our cost management program was to drive a more variable, efficient cost structure to support our revenue base. We are relying more substantially on third-party variable services for our technology teams, third parties for accounting and other finance functions, self-service across the B2B organization and AI to create efficiencies. Our quality journalism and unique content is the foundation of what we do.
由於我們的成本管理舉措,我們在第三季度確認了 1600 萬美元的收益,在第四季度確認了 4900 萬美元,並預計在 2023 年至少節省 2.2 億美元。我們的成本管理計劃的重點是推動更具可變性的,高效的成本結構來支持我們的收入基礎。我們在很大程度上依賴第三方為我們的技術團隊提供可變服務、第三方負責會計和其他財務職能、跨 B2B 組織的自助服務和人工智能來提高效率。我們優質的新聞報導和獨特的內容是我們工作的基礎。
However, we have made recent investments in AI and machine learning tools that allow us to simplify routine tasks such as selecting and cropping images quickly, recommendation engines to personalize content or gathering simple data sets to inform readers on things such as where to watch various sporting events. These AI-enabled efficiencies allows our journalists to focus on what differentiates us, quality content that drives deeper engagement. On the bottom line, we ended the fourth quarter with a net income attributable to Gannett of 32.8 and $53.2 million in adjusted net income attributable to Gannett. Our net income represents a $55.2 million year-over-year increase driven by lower depreciation and amortization costs and the absence of the impact in the prior year from the early extinguishment of debt.
然而,我們最近對 AI 和機器學習工具進行了投資,使我們能夠簡化日常任務,例如快速選擇和裁剪圖像、推薦引擎以個性化內容或收集簡單的數據集以告知讀者在哪裡觀看各種體育賽事等事件。這些 AI 支持的效率使我們的記者能夠專注於讓我們與眾不同的地方,以及推動更深入參與的優質內容。最重要的是,我們在第四季度結束時歸屬於 Gannett 的淨收入為 32.8 美元,歸屬於 Gannett 的調整後淨收入為 5320 萬美元。我們的淨收入同比增長 5520 萬美元,這主要是由於折舊和攤銷成本降低以及上一年債務提前清償的影響消失。
Total digital revenues in Q4 were $269.2 million, down 0.4% year-over-year on a same-store basis but up sequentially by 190 basis points from Q3. In the fourth quarter, our total digital revenues accounted for approximately 37% of total revenues. Our decline in total digital revenues was influenced by digital advertising, which fell 20.5% on a same-store basis year-over-year. The decrease in digital advertising revenue reflects a softer market, where we continue to see lower monetization rates as compared to the prior year.
第四季度數字業務總收入為 2.692 億美元,同店同比下降 0.4%,但比第三季度環比增長 190 個基點。第四季度,我們的數字總收入約佔總收入的 37%。我們的數字總收入下降受到數字廣告的影響,同店同比下降 20.5%。數字廣告收入的減少反映了市場疲軟,我們繼續看到與上一年相比貨幣化率較低。
The performance in our digital-only circulation and digital marketing solutions businesses is expected to continue to provide the foundation for future growth. Our digital-only circulation revenue of $35.5 million grew 29.5% compared to the prior year on a same-store basis, while ARPU grew approximately 2% year-over-year. As we head into 2023, we expect our growth to continue as we optimize the subscriber funnel, improve our customer interactions and leverage our data and insights to improve retention and minimize churn. We expect to drive further revenue growth as a result of these improvements and lessen our reliance on introductory offers as well as acquire and retain more engaged consumers.
我們純數字流通和數字營銷解決方案業務的表現預計將繼續為未來增長奠定基礎。我們的純數字流通收入為 3550 萬美元,與去年同店相比增長 29.5%,而 ARPU 同比增長約 2%。隨著我們進入 2023 年,我們預計我們的增長將繼續,因為我們優化了訂戶渠道,改善了我們的客戶互動,並利用我們的數據和洞察力來提高保留率並最大限度地減少客戶流失。我們希望通過這些改進推動進一步的收入增長,減少我們對介紹性優惠的依賴,並獲得和留住更多參與的消費者。
While revenue performance on a year-over-year basis was fairly stable from Q3 into Q4, we did see some deterioration in print advertising revenue late in the fourth quarter. This includes softness in classifieds, including obituaries and employment. We have begun to implement self-service order functionality across these verticals and are pleased that in the early stages, self-service has increased both the number of orders and the average order size. We are also highly focused on improving print circulation revenue and volume. While our volume trends improved approximately 106 basis points quarter-over-quarter, from a revenue trend perspective, we are beginning to cycle some of the more aggressive price actions that we rolled out late in 2021.
雖然從第三季度到第四季度的收入同比表現相當穩定,但我們確實看到第四季度末印刷廣告收入有所惡化。這包括分類廣告的軟性,包括訃告和就業。我們已經開始在這些垂直領域實施自助服務訂單功能,並且很高興在早期階段,自助服務增加了訂單數量和平均訂單大小。我們還高度重視提高印刷發行收入和數量。雖然我們的銷量趨勢環比提高了約 106 個基點,但從收入趨勢的角度來看,我們開始循環我們在 2021 年底推出的一些更激進的價格行動。
We continue to believe that we have some additional pricing power for new subscribers, but our focus is to stabilize our print subscriber base and maximize the lifetime value of our customers. For new subscribers, we've rolled out an all-in-one pricing model, which has been shown to improve subscriber retention. We have continued to reduce the number of unstaffed delivery routes, which peaked in the second quarter of 2022 and we will continue to take advantage of mail delivery in certain locations.
我們仍然相信我們對新訂戶有一些額外的定價權,但我們的重點是穩定我們的印刷訂戶基礎並最大限度地提高客戶的終身價值。對於新訂閱者,我們推出了一種一體化定價模式,該模式已被證明可以提高訂閱者保留率。我們繼續減少無人配送路線的數量,該路線在 2022 年第二季度達到頂峰,我們將繼續利用某些地點的郵件配送。
In our Digital Marketing Solutions business, total revenue in the fourth quarter reached a record high of $121.1 million, an increase of 7.8% year-over-year on a same-store basis. Adjusted EBITDA for the segment was $16.4 million, representing a strong double-digit margin of 13.5% in the fourth quarter. Average monthly customer count increased by approximately 1%, while ARPU reached a new high of over $2,600 per month, and that grew 7.7% versus the prior year period. These positive trends reflect the impact of national clients and a focused product portfolio, which we believe drives more effective results for clients and higher ARPU and margins within the segment.
在我們的數字營銷解決方案業務中,第四季度總收入達到創紀錄的 1.211 億美元,同店同比增長 7.8%。該部門調整後的 EBITDA 為 1640 萬美元,第四季度實現了 13.5% 的兩位數利潤率。平均每月客戶數量增加了約 1%,而 ARPU 達到了每月 2,600 美元以上的新高,與去年同期相比增長了 7.7%。這些積極趨勢反映了全國客戶的影響和專注的產品組合,我們相信這會為客戶帶來更有效的結果,並提高該細分市場的 ARPU 和利潤率。
In terms of quarter-over-quarter results, there was a slight decline from 15,800 customers in Q3 to 15,300 customers in Q4 due to the seasonality of small multi-location customers that are still inherent in our business. However, ARPU and revenue both grew in the fourth quarter over what is traditionally a stronger third quarter. We believe our continued execution along with the development of additional products and features will increase our addressable market and reduce the effect of seasonality on the DMS segment.
就環比結果而言,由於小型多地點客戶的季節性仍然是我們業務中固有的,因此從第三季度的 15,800 名客戶略微下降至第四季度的 15,300 名客戶。然而,第四季度的 ARPU 和收入均比傳統上表現強勁的第三季度有所增長。我們相信,我們的持續執行以及其他產品和功能的開發將增加我們的潛在市場並減少季節性對 DMS 細分市場的影響。
Let's now shift to the balance sheet. At the end of the fourth quarter, we had a cash balance of $94.3 million, translating into net debt of approximately $1.18 billion. In the fourth quarter, free cash flow usage was $1.6 million, which included our final FICA deferral payment of $20.8 million. We had a slight use of cash flow for the full year of $4.5 million, which included $23 million of cash pension contributions, the $20.8 million in the deferred FICA payment and $64.8 million in cash related to integration, reorganization and severance. We anticipate all of these items to decrease materially in 2023 with no funding of our main pension plan anticipated and our final deferred FICA payment behind us.
現在讓我們轉向資產負債表。第四季度末,我們的現金餘額為 9,430 萬美元,相當於淨債務約為 11.8 億美元。第四季度,自由現金流使用量為 160 萬美元,其中包括我們最終的 2080 萬美元 FICA 延期付款。我們全年略微使用了 450 萬美元的現金流,其中包括 2300 萬美元的現金養老金繳款、2080 萬美元的 FICA 遞延付款以及與整合、重組和遣散相關的 6480 萬美元現金。我們預計所有這些項目將在 2023 年大幅減少,因為我們的主要養老金計劃預計沒有資金,我們的最終延期 FICA 付款也落後了。
We ended the fourth quarter with approximately $1.3 billion of total debt. Our first lien net leverage was 2.68x and for the full year of 2022, we repaid $146.6 million of total debt and in 2023, we've already reduced our first lien debt by $22.2 million. We expect to repay a minimum of $120 million in 2023 through our scheduled quarterly amortization payments as well as further real estate and other asset sales. In Q4, we completed 13 real estate and other asset sales totaling $12.2 million, bringing our total 2022 real estate and other asset sales to $67.9 million. For the full year of 2023, we project USD65 million to USD75 million in real estate and other asset sales, including those completed in January. We continue to maintain a sizable real estate sales pipeline of approximately USD50 million to USD60 million, which combined with our expected free cash flow improvement, should contribute to our aggressive debt paydown strategy.
我們在第四季度末的總債務約為 13 億美元。我們的第一筆留置權淨槓桿率為 2.68 倍,2022 年全年,我們償還了 1.466 億美元的總債務,到 2023 年,我們已經將第一筆留置權債務減少了 2220 萬美元。我們預計在 2023 年通過預定的季度攤銷付款以及進一步的房地產和其他資產出售償還至少 1.2 億美元。在第四季度,我們完成了 13 項房地產和其他資產銷售,總計 1220 萬美元,使我們 2022 年的房地產和其他資產銷售總額達到 6790 萬美元。對於 2023 年全年,我們預計將進行 6500 萬美元至 7500 萬美元的房地產和其他資產銷售,包括 1 月份完成的銷售。我們繼續維持大約 5000 萬美元至 6000 萬美元的可觀房地產銷售渠道,再加上我們預期的自由現金流改善,應該有助於我們積極的債務償還戰略。
So looking ahead to 2023, we begin to cycle the decline of digital media mid-Q2 and benefit immediately from the ramp of the cost management program we put in place. As a result, we expect adjusted EBITDA in the range of USD280 million to USD300 million for 2023, which translates to expected year-over-year growth of 10% to 15%. Q1 adjusted EBITDA trends will be more in line with what we experienced in Q4 of 2022 as a result of a difficult year-over-year comparison as well as certain nonrecurring items we benefited from in the prior year, which contributed about $6 million in the previous year. While Q1 adjusted EBITDA is expected to decline on a year-over-year basis, we anticipate year-over-year growth in each of the remaining quarters of 2023. This growth will be most significant in Q2 and Q3 due to the cycling of the more significant revenue declines and ramping of cost initiatives in 2022. 2023 net income attributable to Gannett is expected to range from a net loss of $20 million to a net income of $10 million.
因此,展望 2023 年,我們將在第二季度中期開始循環數字媒體的衰退,並立即受益於我們實施的成本管理計劃的增長。因此,我們預計 2023 年調整後的 EBITDA 將在 2.8 億美元至 3 億美元之間,這意味著預計同比增長 10% 至 15%。第一季度調整後的 EBITDA 趨勢將更符合我們在 2022 年第四季度的經歷,這是由於艱難的同比比較以及我們在上一年受益的某些非經常性項目,這些項目在 2022 年第四季度貢獻了約 600 萬美元前一年。雖然第一季度調整後的 EBITDA 預計將同比下降,但我們預計 2023 年剩餘的每個季度都將同比增長。由於2022 年收入下降幅度更大,成本計劃增加。2023 年歸屬於 Gannett 的淨收入預計將從淨虧損 2000 萬美元到淨收入 1000 萬美元不等。
For the full year 2023, we expect total revenues between USD2.75 billion to USD2.8 billion, representing a same-store decline of 3% to 5% year-over-year. For the first half of the year, revenue is expected to perform similar to the end of 2022, improving slightly as we cycle the digital advertising declines mid-Q2. In the second half of 2023, revenue is expected to return to low single-digit declines on a same-store basis.
對於 2023 年全年,我們預計總收入在 27.5 億美元至 28 億美元之間,同店同比下降 3% 至 5%。今年上半年,收入預計將與 2022 年底表現相似,隨著我們在第二季度中期數字廣告下降的周期中略有改善。到 2023 年下半年,預計同店收入將恢復到較低的個位數下降。
With an increased focus on growing quality subscriptions, which is expected to result in higher ARPU, profitability and retention in 2023, digital-only circulation revenue is expected to grow at rates slightly below 2022. Digital-only subscription volume growth will reflect the balance of volume versus profitability, and as such, is expected to be more moderated as compared to digital-only revenue growth. Net adds are expected to be lower in the first 2 quarters as we ramp product efficiencies and scale back marketing spend, but we expect acquisition volume to accelerate in the back half of the year.
隨著人們越來越關注不斷增長的優質訂閱,預計這將在 2023 年帶來更高的 ARPU、盈利能力和留存率,預計純數字流通收入的增長速度將略低於 2022 年。純數字訂閱量的增長將反映與純數字收入增長相比,銷量與盈利能力的對比預計會更加緩和。由於我們提高了產品效率並縮減了營銷支出,預計前兩個季度的淨增加量將會減少,但我們預計收購量將在今年下半年加速。
With expected debt paydown of $120 million in 2023 and expected adjusted EBITDA of USD280 million to USD300 million, we anticipate first lien net leverage to fall below 2x at the end of 2023. Finally, as a result of the improving net income performance and significantly lower cash obligations, we expect cash provided by operating activities to be in the range of USD120 million to USD140 million and substantial improvement in free cash flow. Free cash flow is expected to be in the range of USD80 million to USD100 million for the year, representing a conversion rate of approximately 25% to 35%.
預計 2023 年的債務償還額為 1.2 億美元,預計調整後的 EBITDA 為 2.8 億美元至 3 億美元,我們預計首次留置權淨槓桿率將在 2023 年底降至 2 倍以下。最後,由於淨收入表現的改善和顯著降低現金義務,我們預計經營活動提供的現金將在 1.2 億美元至 1.4 億美元之間,自由現金流將大幅改善。全年自由現金流量預計在 8000 萬美元至 1 億美元之間,轉換率約為 25%至 35%。
We are pleased to have made considerable progress on our strategic pillars and to be entering 2023 with a strong balance sheet and liquidity position. We have shown that even in a challenging environment, the compounding growth in our digital revenue businesses and our ability to strategically moderate our cost structure allows us to positively impact adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow. We are excited about our operational and financial plans for 2023 as well as the opportunity to create meaningful value for both our shareholders as well as the communities that we serve.
我們很高興在我們的戰略支柱上取得了長足的進步,並以強勁的資產負債表和流動性狀況進入 2023 年。我們已經表明,即使在充滿挑戰的環境中,我們數字收入業務的複合增長以及我們從戰略上調整成本結構的能力也使我們能夠對調整後的 EBITDA 和自由現金流產生積極影響。我們對 2023 年的運營和財務計劃以及為我們的股東和我們所服務的社區創造有意義的價值的機會感到興奮。
I will now hand it back to the operator for questions, and then we will go back to Mike for some closing thoughts. Operator?
我現在將它交還給操作員提問,然後我們將返回 Mike 進行一些總結。操作員?
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Jason Bazinet with Citi.
(操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Jason Bazinet。
Jason Boisvert Bazinet - MD, Global Head of EMT & Analyst
Jason Boisvert Bazinet - MD, Global Head of EMT & Analyst
I just had 2 revenue questions, one about sort of this year '23 and then one sort of about getting back to growth by '24. So for '23, it feels like the buy sides have been thinking about a recession for a year now, and there's been some areas that were weak sort of in '22, maybe some of your businesses, maybe mobile advertising also. But now the markets like [less convinced] are going into a recession. And so I would just love to know sort of what sort of macro, you guys talked about things getting better. But is that assuming that the macro doesn't deteriorate materially? Is it just sort of steady Eddie and the improvement is just on the comps, but just any sort of macro color for this year?
我只有兩個收入問題,一個是關於今年 23 年的問題,另一個是關於在 24 年之前恢復增長的問題。因此,對於 23 年,感覺買方已經考慮了一年的經濟衰退,並且在 22 年有些領域表現不佳,也許是你的一些業務,也許還有移動廣告。但現在像 [不太相信] 這樣的市場正在陷入衰退。所以我很想知道什麼樣的宏觀,你們談論事情變得更好。但這是假設宏觀經濟沒有實質性惡化嗎?它只是有點穩定的 Eddie,改進只是在 comps 上,但今年只是任何一種宏觀顏色?
And then on the longer term, getting back to growth, should we think about the improvement being sort of balanced across print advertising and CERC and digital ads and DMS and commercial print and other? Or is there one area in particular that you think will be most important to get you back to growth mode?
然後從長遠來看,回到增長,我們是否應該考慮在印刷廣告和 CERC 以及數字廣告和 DMS 以及商業印刷和其他方面取得平衡?或者您認為有哪一個領域對您恢復增長模式最為重要?
Michael E. Reed - Chairman, CEO & President
Michael E. Reed - Chairman, CEO & President
Yes. So on your first question, we are not seeing trends in our business here in the first quarter that would indicate that the country is moving into a recession or moving in that direction. In fact, our trends are improving here in the first 2 months relative to Q4. So we're -- we've looked out for the full year. Our teams have done bottoms up across all of our revenue categories. And based on what we see today, based on how our customers are interacting with us across all of our revenue channels, we just don't see a worst-case kind of hard landing. And especially on the local side, our local businesses continue to engage with us, and we see some slightly improving trends there in the first quarter.
是的。所以關於你的第一個問題,我們在第一季度沒有看到我們這裡的業務趨勢表明該國正在進入衰退或朝著那個方向發展。事實上,與第四季度相比,前兩個月我們的趨勢正在改善。所以我們——我們已經展望了全年。我們的團隊在我們所有的收入類別中都做了自下而上的工作。根據我們今天所看到的情況,根據我們的客戶如何通過我們所有的收入渠道與我們互動,我們只是看不到最壞情況下的硬著陸。特別是在本地方面,我們的本地企業繼續與我們合作,我們看到第一季度那裡的趨勢略有改善。
So our forecast is built on a soft economy, certainly not a hard landing. We don't see that in our numbers today. We don't anticipate that. We'd have to pivot if that occurred with our cost structure. But we feel really good about what we're seeing in the markets today, what our customers are telling us. And so we see a soft landing as a worst-case scenario, but potentially no recession at all.
所以我們的預測是建立在經濟疲軟的基礎上的,當然不是硬著陸。我們今天的數字中看不到這一點。我們沒有預料到這一點。如果我們的成本結構發生這種情況,我們將不得不進行調整。但我們對今天在市場上看到的、我們的客戶告訴我們的事情感到非常滿意。因此,我們認為軟著陸是最壞的情況,但可能根本不會出現衰退。
And with regard to the -- to your second question, the most important is our digital growth, obviously. As Doug said, 37% of total revenue in the fourth quarter is digital only. That will continue to move towards 50%. The growth in that across all the spectrum, whether it's our new partnership opportunities, our digital advertising business, obviously, the subscription business and our digital marketing solutions business, all important that those continue to churn and grow as we expect them to. But we are also working on stabilizing to some degree or not stabilizing, but slowing the rate of decline of our print business and that's also an important component of reaching the inflection point in 2024.
關於 - 關於你的第二個問題,最重要的顯然是我們的數字增長。正如道格所說,第四季度總收入的 37% 僅來自數字。這將繼續向 50% 邁進。在所有領域的增長,無論是我們新的合作機會、我們的數字廣告業務,顯然,訂閱業務和我們的數字營銷解決方案業務,所有這些都很重要,因為它們會繼續像我們預期的那樣流失和增長。但我們也在努力在某種程度上穩定或不穩定,但減緩我們印刷業務的下滑速度,這也是在 2024 年達到拐點的重要組成部分。
We've undertaken a lot of actions over the last 12 months to -- on both of those fronts, but certainly, on lowering the declines on print. It's something we've been focused on and we're actually seeing those results in our first quarter numbers. So we're encouraged by that. So right now, based on what we see, Jason, we soft landing to no recession this year and a combination of our strong digital growth, combined with improving trend performance in print is what leads us to have confidence in our inflection point being reached back half of 2024.
在過去的 12 個月裡,我們在這兩個方面採取了很多行動,但肯定是為了降低印刷品的下降。這是我們一直關注的事情,我們實際上在第一季度的數字中看到了這些結果。所以我們對此感到鼓舞。所以現在,根據我們所看到的,Jason,我們今年軟著陸到沒有衰退,我們強勁的數字增長與印刷趨勢表現的改善相結合,使我們對我們的拐點有信心回到2024年的一半。
Jason Boisvert Bazinet - MD, Global Head of EMT & Analyst
Jason Boisvert Bazinet - MD, Global Head of EMT & Analyst
Okay. And if you hit that inflection, is the right mix, like if you get to 50% of your revenues are digital, that's sort of the right --
好的。如果你遇到這種變化,那就是正確的組合,比如如果你的收入中有 50% 是數字收入,那就是正確的——
Michael E. Reed - Chairman, CEO & President
Michael E. Reed - Chairman, CEO & President
Yes, that's about the rate (inaudible).
是的,這是關於利率(聽不清)。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Lee Cooperman with Omega Family Office.
(操作員說明)我們的下一個問題來自歐米茄家族辦公室的李庫珀曼。
Leon G. Cooperman - President, CEO & Chairman
Leon G. Cooperman - President, CEO & Chairman
Just a few observations and I have 2 questions. Ever since I invested in the company, which is at least 5 years ago, you felt the stock was significantly undervalued. And this -- when did -- nothing would go down, but I have to say you backed up your view by consistently buying substantial amount of stock for your own account. I think it's fair to say you couldn't understand the impact of COVID and the recession of the company. Having said that, I think it's a fair [question] to say we have been too slow in reducing cost.
只是一些觀察,我有 2 個問題。自從我投資這家公司以來,至少是 5 年前,你覺得這隻股票被嚴重低估了。而這 - 什麼時候 - 什麼都不會下降,但我不得不說你通過持續為自己的賬戶購買大量股票來支持你的觀點。我認為可以公平地說,您無法理解 COVID 的影響和公司的衰退。話雖如此,我認為說我們在降低成本方面太慢了是一個公平的[問題]。
Now for my ideas and questions, okay, one, I think we should consider selling off a few of our trophy properties at valuation levels substantially above the public market valuation of our equity to accelerate our debt repayment and surface some hidden value and I'd like to get your thoughts on that. And secondly, when do you think you'll be in a position to buy back cheap equity? So I think we announced that original authorization before the economy deteriorated when the stock was 7.5 and went down to below 2. It's now about 2.5, 2.60, whatever. So your thoughts on those 2 questions.
現在談談我的想法和問題,好吧,第一,我認為我們應該考慮以遠高於我們股票的公開市場估值的估值水平出售我們的一些獎杯資產,以加速我們的債務償還並揭示一些隱藏的價值,我會想听聽你的想法。其次,您認為什麼時候可以回購廉價股票?所以我認為我們在經濟惡化之前宣布了最初的授權,當時股價是 7.5 並跌至 2 以下。現在大約是 2.5、2.60 等等。所以你對這兩個問題的看法。
Michael E. Reed - Chairman, CEO & President
Michael E. Reed - Chairman, CEO & President
Yes. So first question, Lee, selling off trophy properties. Obviously, the answer is, yes. We would entertain bids on any of our markets, any of our products that are at or above fair market value. So that's something we've done in the past, we'll do in the future. Those things can be lumpy. It depends on vanity type buyers in those particular markets. But I would say, Lee, the answer is yes, we will do that. We're hopeful that we'll have an opportunity or 2 this year to do that. But it's not anything that's in our plans is it's hard to count on it for -- with certainty. But -- so overall, yes, the answer is yes, we'll do that if and when we get the opportunity to do so.
是的。所以第一個問題,李,賣掉獎杯財產。顯然,答案是肯定的。我們將接受在我們的任何市場、我們的任何產品中達到或高於公平市場價值的出價。所以這是我們過去所做的事情,我們將來也會這樣做。這些東西可能是塊狀的。這取決於那些特定市場中虛榮心類型的買家。但我會說,李,答案是肯定的,我們會這樣做。我們希望今年有機會或兩次這樣做。但這不是我們計劃中的任何事情,因為很難指望它——可以肯定。但是 - 總的來說,是的,答案是肯定的,如果有機會的話,我們會這樣做。
As far as buying back cheap equity, we'd love to be in a position to continue our stock buyback program. We feel right now, Lee, that the best continued use of capital beyond investing in the growth business, growth parts of our business is to reduce debt. As Doug mentioned, our first lien net debt is still 2.68, so closer to 3. I'd love to see that under 2, closer to 1.5 as we go into next year. And then I think when the -- when nobody is worried about debt, which we're not worried about debt at all, some other people are. But as we get into a much better position from a leverage standpoint, then I think the capital allocation opportunities widen for us as we materially lower that first lien net leverage.
至於回購廉價股票,我們很樂意繼續我們的股票回購計劃。 Lee,我們現在覺得,除了投資於增長業務,我們業務的增長部分之外,最好繼續使用資本來減少債務。正如 Doug 提到的,我們的第一筆留置權淨債務仍然是 2.68,接近 3。我很樂意看到它低於 2,在我們進入明年時接近 1.5。然後我認為當沒有人擔心債務時,我們根本不擔心債務,但其他一些人卻擔心。但隨著我們從槓桿的角度進入一個更好的位置,那麼我認為隨著我們大幅降低第一留置權淨槓桿,我們的資本配置機會會擴大。
Operator
Operator
There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the floor back over to Mike Reed for closing comments. Please go ahead.
目前沒有其他問題。我想將發言權轉回 Mike Reed 以發表結束評論。請繼續。
Michael E. Reed - Chairman, CEO & President
Michael E. Reed - Chairman, CEO & President
Yes. Okay. As you could hear from the call, we're entering 2023 with a great deal of optimism. Let me just highlight a couple of the things you heard today that give us that optimism. I'll start with by saying we have a very strong team here at Gannett, and I think we have the right organizational structure in place with the right players here. Further, we reduced our cost structure, as you heard today by over $220 million as we enter into 2023. Inflation seems to have peaked and we could see some moderation there in 2023. Revenue trends are improving during the first 2 months of 2023. We're encouraged by what we're seeing and hearing from our customers.
是的。好的。正如您從電話中聽到的那樣,我們正以非常樂觀的態度進入 2023 年。讓我只強調您今天聽到的一些讓我們感到樂觀的事情。我首先要說我們在 Gannett 有一支非常強大的團隊,我認為我們擁有合適的組織結構和合適的球員。此外,正如您今天聽到的那樣,隨著我們進入 2023 年,我們降低了成本結構超過 2.2 億美元。通貨膨脹似乎已經見頂,我們可能會在 2023 年看到一些緩和。2023 年前兩個月的收入趨勢正在改善。我們我們對客戶的所見所聞感到鼓舞。
We see 10% to 15% EBITDA growth in 2023. We see nearly $100 million of free cash flow growth in 2023. We see first lien net leverage below 2x by the end of 2023. Our digital growth businesses remain robust from a growth standpoint. We see that continuing in 2023. And we continue to see our inflection point for long-term sustainable growth hitting towards the end of 2024. So a lot to be optimistic about, we feel good about our opportunities and the plans we have in place for 2023. We look forward to updating you on our progress on each of our quarterly earnings calls this year. Thanks to all of you for your support as we continue to navigate this journey. Thank you.
我們預計 2023 年 EBITDA 將增長 10% 至 15%。我們預計 2023 年的自由現金流將增長近 1 億美元。我們預計到 2023 年底首次留置權淨槓桿率將低於 2 倍。從增長的角度來看,我們的數字增長業務依然強勁。我們認為這種情況將在 2023 年繼續。我們繼續看到我們的長期可持續增長的拐點將在 2024 年底到來。因此,我們對我們的機會和我們為之製定的計劃感到非常樂觀2023 年。我們期待向您通報我們今年每個季度財報電話會議的最新進展。感謝大家在我們繼續前進的過程中給予的支持。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time and thank you for your participation.
今天的電話會議到此結束。您此時可以斷開您的線路,感謝您的參與。