Molson Coors Beverage Co (TAP) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to the Molson Coors Beverage Company Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. You can find related slides on the Investor Relations page of the Molson Coors website. Our speakers today are Gavin Hattersley, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Tracey Joubert, Chief Financial Officer. And with that, I'll hand it over to Greg Tierney, Vice President of FP&A, Merchant Finance and Investor Relations.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Molson Coors 飲料公司 2023 財年第三季財報電話會議。您可以在 Molson Coors 網站的投資者關係頁面上找到相關投影片。今天我們的演講者是總裁兼執行長 Gavin Hattersley；和財務長特雷西·朱伯特。接下來，我會將其交給 FP&A、商業金融和投資者關係副總裁 Greg Tierney。

All right. Thank you, Brita, and hello, everyone. Following prepared remarks today from Gavin and Tracey, we will take your questions. In an effort to address as many questions as possible, we ask you to -- we ask that you limit yourself to one question. If you have technical questions on the quarter, please pick them up with our IR team in the days and weeks that follow.

好的。謝謝你，布麗塔，大家好。在加文和特雷西今天準備好的演講之後，我們將回答你們的問題。為了解決盡可能多的問題，我們要求您將自己限制在一個問題上。如果您對本季度有任何技術問題，請在接下來的幾天或幾週內與我們的 IR 團隊聯繫。

Today's discussion includes forward-looking statements. Actual results or trends could differ materially from our forecast. For more information, please refer to the risk factors discussed in our most recent filings with the SEC. We assume no obligation to update forward-looking statements. GAAP reconciliations for any non-U.S. GAAP measures are included in our news release.

今天的討論包括前瞻性陳述。實際結果或趨勢可能與我們的預測有重大差異。欲了解更多信息，請參閱我們最近向 SEC 提交的文件中討論的風險因素。我們不承擔更新前瞻性陳述的義務。任何非美國公認會計原則措施的公認會計原則調節都包含在我們的新聞稿中。

Unless otherwise indicated, all financial results the company discusses are versus the comparable prior year period in U.S. dollars and in constant currency when discussing percentage changes from the prior year period. Also, U.S. share data references are sourced from Circana. Further, in our remarks today, we will reference underlying pretax income, which equates to underlying income before income taxes on the condensed consolidated statement of operations.

除非另有說明，否則在討論上年同期的百分比變化時，公司討論的所有財務業績均以美元和固定貨幣與上年同期相比。此外，美國股票數據參考源自 Circana。此外，在今天的演講中，我們將參考基本稅前收入，它相當於簡明合併營業報表中所得稅前的基本收入。

And with that, I'll hand it over to Tracey.

就這樣，我會把它交給崔西。

Thank you, Greg, and hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us. We will be doing things a little bit differently this quarter. I will open and address our results, our guidance and importantly, our fourth quarter expectations at the start of the call, and then Gavin will close.

謝謝格雷格，大家好，謝謝您加入我們。本季我們的做法會略有不同。我將在電話會議開始時介紹並討論我們的業績、我們的指導，以及重要的是我們的第四季度預期，然後加文將結束會議。

In the third quarter, we delivered another set of strong results. Our net sales revenue grew an impressive 11%, driven by double-digit growth in both our business units. Our continued focus on efficiencies and cost savings, combined with volume leverage, significantly offset inflationary pressures resulting in meaningful margin expansion. This led to 43.5% growth in underlying pretax income with both business units up strongly.

在第三季度，我們取得了另一組強勁的業績。在兩個業務部門兩位數成長的推動下，我們的淨銷售收入成長了 11%，令人印象深刻。我們持續關注效率和成本節約，再加上銷售槓桿，顯著抵消了通膨壓力，從而實現了有意義的利潤率擴張。這使得兩個業務部門的基本稅前收入成長了 43.5%。

And with free cash flow nearly doubling for the first 9 months of the year, we continue to prudently execute our capital deployment plan, investing in our business, reducing net debt and returning cash to shareholders. This performance underscores the strong momentum in our business, which is a function of the foundation we have built to sustainably grow both the top and bottom line. And this is exactly what we have done both in 2022 and year-to-date in 2023, all while navigating a challenging and dynamic global macroeconomic environment.

今年前 9 個月自由現金流幾乎翻了一番，我們繼續審慎執行資本部署計劃，投資於我們的業務，減少淨債務並向股東返還現金。這項業績凸顯了我們業務的強勁勢頭，這是我們為永續成長收入和利潤而建立的基礎的一個功能。這正是我們在 2022 年和 2023 年迄今所做的事情，同時應對充滿挑戰和動態的全球宏觀經濟環境。

And while these macro conditions remain, the fundamental strength of our business, coupled with the actions we are taking to sustain the momentum we have achieved gives us confidence for another year of growth in 2023 and beyond. For 2023, we are reaffirming our high single-digit top line growth guidance, but narrowing our expectations to the high end of that range. And we are raising our underlying pretax growth guidance to 32% to 36% as compared to 23% to 26% previously. We are also reducing our interest expense guidance to $210 million, plus or minus 5% as compared to $225 million plus or minus 5% previously. All other previous guidance metrics as detailed in today's earnings release remains unchanged.

儘管這些宏觀條件仍然存在，但我們業務的基本實力，加上我們為維持已取得的勢頭而採取的行動，使我們對 2023 年及以後的又一年增長充滿信心。對於 2023 年，我們重申我們的高個位數收入成長指引，但將我們的預期縮小到該範圍的高端。我們將基本稅前成長指引從先前的 23% 至 26% 提高至 32% 至 36%。我們也將利息支出指引從先前的 2.25 億美元正負 5% 下調至 2.1 億美元正負 5%。今天的財報中詳細介紹的所有其他先前指導指標均保持不變。

There are a few key reasons for these guidance changes. First, the U.S. beer category has been healthier than we had projected when we revised guidance on August 1. In other words, its rate of decline is better than we had expected and better than it was earlier this year. Second, our brand volume growth is stronger than we had expected. In fact, we anticipate our global brand volume growth to accelerate in the fourth quarter. Third, pricing across our global markets and in particular, in Canada, has been better than we had planned. And fourth, due to higher-than-expected cash balances, we now anticipate lower net interest expense.

這些指導方針的變化有幾個關鍵原因。首先，美國啤酒品類比我們8月1日修訂指引時的預期要健康。換句話說，它的下降速度比我們預期的要好，也比今年早些時候的情況要好。其次，我們的品牌銷售成長強於我們的預期。事實上，我們預計第四季度我們的全球品牌銷售成長將加速。第三，我們全球市場（特別是加拿大）的定價比我們的計畫好。第四，由於現金餘額高於預期，我們現在預期淨利息支出將會下降。

Okay. With that in mind, let's discuss the fourth quarter. Our updated full year 2023 guidance implies mid-single-digit top line growth and at the midpoint, a high single-digit decline in underlying pretax income for the quarter. Now the fourth quarter growth rates do not imply a reversal in the trend for our brands in the U.S. In fact, our October brand volume performance is currently up pacing our trends in the third quarter, and we expect continued share growth roughly aligned with what we saw in the third quarter. In short, we are not seeing anything that suggests that our market share gains are slowing. So let's talk about some of the key factors driving fourth quarter performance.

好的。考慮到這一點，我們來討論第四季。我們更新後的 2023 年全年指引意味著營收將實現中個位數成長，而在中點，該季度的基本稅前收入將出現高個位數下降。現在，第四季度的成長率並不意味著我們品牌在美國的趨勢發生逆轉。事實上，我們10 月的品牌銷售表現目前正在與第三季的趨勢同步成長，我們預期份額的持續成長與我們的增長大致一致。第三季看到的。簡而言之，我們沒有看到任何跡象表明我們的市佔率成長正在放緩。那麼讓我們來談談推動第四季業績的一些關鍵因素。

First, we will experience a reduced level of pricing benefit in the U.S. and EMEA and APAC. For example, we are lapping an approximate 5% general increase in the U.S. this fall. As anticipated and is supported by the strength of our brands, we took pricing in many of our U.S. markets in the 1% to 2% historical average range.

首先，我們在美國、歐洲、中東和非洲以及亞太地區的定價優勢將會降低。例如，我們預計今年秋季美國的整體成長率約為 5%。正如預期並得到我們品牌實力的支持，我們在許多美國市場的定價處於歷史平均水平的 1% 至 2% 範圍內。

Second, we expect our U.S. brand volume to outpace financial volume growth in the fourth quarter, and this is due to a couple of reasons. We ended the third quarter with healthy U.S. inventory levels. This was due to our strong brewery performance, which enabled us to ship ahead of expectations in the quarter. And this put us in a great position in the fourth quarter, providing the opportunity to give our employees some much deserved time off around the holidays. And it also allows us to execute planned downtime in the U.S. network for system maintenance. Overall, we expect to be well positioned to build inventory in the first quarter ahead of peak season.

其次，我們預計第四季度我們的美國品牌銷售將超過金融銷售的成長，這是由於幾個原因。第三季末，我們的美國庫存水準保持健康。這是由於我們啤酒廠的強勁表現，使我們能夠在本季度提前發貨。這使我們在第四季度處於有利地位，為我們的員工提供了在假期期間享受應得的休假的機會。它還允許我們在美國網路中執行計劃停機以進行系統維護。總體而言，我們預計將在第一季旺季之前建立庫存。

Also recall, we have a large U.S. contract brewing agreement winding down ahead of its termination at the end of 2024. We continue to expect volume declines under this contract to accelerate in the fourth quarter, resulting in a quarterly headwind of approximately 2% to 3% in Americas financial volume. Third, underlying COGS per hectoliter is expected to be a headwind in the fourth quarter. This was due to continued high inflation in EMEA and APAC and lower volume leverage than in the previous 2 quarters.

另請記住，我們有一項大型美國合約釀造協議將於 2024 年底終止。我們仍預計該合約下的產量下降將在第四季度加速，導致季度阻力約為 2% 至 3%佔美洲金融總量的百分比。第三，每百公升的基本銷售成本預計將成為第四季的阻力。這是由於歐洲、中東和非洲和亞太地區的通膨持續高企，成交量槓桿率低於前兩季。

And fourth, we expect total MG&A to be up by approximately $90 million, which is driven by both marketing and G&A. For marketing, this includes approximately $50 million higher spend in the fourth quarter. And this increase is particularly impactful in a lower profit quarter like the fourth quarter. G&A is expected to be up primarily due to higher incentive compensation given our strong performance this year.

第四，我們預計 MG&A 總額將增加約 9,000 萬美元，這是由行銷和 G&A 共同推動的。對於行銷，這包括第四季度增加約 5000 萬美元的支出。這種成長在第四季等利潤較低的季度尤其具有影響力。鑑於我們今年的強勁表現，預計一般行政費用將增加，主要是由於激勵薪酬的提高。

Okay. So now let's talk about our third quarter performance. We delivered another quarter of strong results with net sales revenue growth supported by both rates and volume. Net sales per hectoliter grew 7.6%. This was driven by positive global net pricing, given the rollover benefits from the higher than typical increases taken in the fall of 2022 as well as favorable sales mix led by geographic mix. This geographic mix was due to particularly strong performance in the U.S. In fact, consolidated financial volume increased 3.2%, while U.S. shipments were up 7.2%. This is a result of our strong U.S. brewery performance, which enabled us to ship ahead of our expectations, but also it was due to the continued strong momentum behind our premium brands.

好的。現在我們來談談我們第三季的業績。我們又一個季度取得了強勁的業績，淨銷售收入成長受到費率和銷售的支持。每百升淨銷售額成長 7.6%。考慮到 2022 年秋季高於典型成長所帶來的展期收益以及地理組合帶來的有利銷售組合，這是由積極的全球淨定價推動的。這種地理組合是由於美國的表現尤其強勁。事實上，綜合財務量成長了 3.2%，而美國的出貨量成長了 7.2%。這是我們美國啤酒廠強勁表現的結果，這使我們的出貨量超出了我們的預期，但也是由於我們的優質品牌背後持續強勁的勢頭。

Consolidated brand volume increased 1.1% with results varying by market. Americas brand volume was up 3.6%. Growth was led by the U.S., where brand volume was up 4.5%. In fact, Coors Light and Coors Banquet were each up double digits and Miller Lite was up high single digits. But there were some notable timing impact that mask the underlying strength in the U.S. brand volume growth.

綜合品牌銷售成長 1.1%，但結果因市場而異。美洲品牌銷量成長 3.6%。成長以美國為主導，品牌數量增加了 4.5%。事實上，Coors Light 和 Coors Banquet 的股價均上漲了兩位數，而 Miller Lite 則上漲了高個位數。但有一些顯著的時間影響掩蓋了美國品牌銷售成長的潛在優勢。

First, there was one less trading day in the quarter. On a trading day adjusted basis, U.S. brand volume growth was 6.1%. In addition, we were cycling significant loading ahead of the 2022 for price increases. And there was some shifting of calendar and holiday timing as compared to the prior year, which had an impact. Canada brand volume increased 0.2%, benefiting from growth in its above premium portfolio. While industry softness weighed on brand volume, we continue to grow share in Canada for the quarter, adding over 3 share points for the 3-month period ending August.

首先，本季減少了一個交易日。按交易日調整後，美國品牌銷量成長 6.1%。此外，我們在 2022 年之前進行了大量裝載以實現價格上漲。與前一年相比，日曆和假期時間發生了一些變化，這產生了影響。受益於其高端產品組合的成長，加拿大品牌銷量成長了 0.2%。儘管行業疲軟影響了品牌銷量，但本季度我們在加拿大的份額繼續增長，截至 8 月的 3 個月期間增加了超過 3 個百分點。

In Latin America, while mix improved, brand volume was down 2.5%. This was largely due to industry softness and economic conditions in some of our key markets in the region. And in EMEA and APAC, brand volume declined 5.2%. The consumers in Central and Eastern Europe continued to be affected by inflationary pressures and U.K. demand was impacted by rainy weather. That said, our Bud premium portfolio continued to benefit from strong growth from Madri, which grew brand volume over 50% in the quarter. This strong top line performance translated to even stronger bottom line results, and this was across both business units, with underlying pretax income up 32.2% in Americas and up 58.1% in EMEA and APAC. We achieved this by prudently managing costs while continuing to invest strongly behind our brands.

在拉丁美洲，雖然產品組合有所改善，但品牌數量下降了 2.5%。這主要是由於該地區一些主要市場的行業疲軟和經濟狀況。在歐洲、中東和非洲和亞太地區，品牌銷量下降了 5.2%。中東歐消費者持續受到通膨壓力的影響，英國需求則受到陰雨天氣的影響。也就是說，我們的 Bud 優質產品組合繼續受益於 Madri 的強勁增長，該季度品牌銷量增長了 50% 以上。這種強勁的營收表現轉化為更強勁的淨利潤結果，這在兩個業務部門都是如此，美洲的基本稅前收入增長了 32.2%，歐洲、中東和非洲和亞太地區增長了 58.1%。我們透過審慎管理成本同時繼續大力投資我們的品牌來實現這一目標。

So let's talk about some of these drivers. Underlying COGS per hectoliter were up 2.6%. As expected, inflationary pressures continue to be a headwind, but moderated from the first half of the year. But the story differs by market. In the Americas, underlying COGS per hectoliter decreased 1% as cost savings, volume leverage and lower logistics costs more than offset the impact of direct material inflation. While in EMEA and APAC, inflationary pressures remained significant, driving underlying cost per hectoliter up 15.8%.

那麼讓我們來談談其中一些驅動程式。每百升的基本 COGS 上漲 2.6%。如預期，通膨壓力仍是不利因素，但較上半年緩解。但情況因市場而異。在美洲，每百公升的基本銷貨成本下降了 1%，因為成本節約、銷售槓桿和較低的物流成本足以抵消直接材料通膨的影響。而在歐洲、中東和非洲和亞太地區，通膨壓力仍然很大，導致每百公升的基本成本上漲 15.8%。

To break down the drivers a bit more, as you may recall, we bucket COGS into 3 areas. First is cost inflation other which includes cost inflation, depreciation, cost savings and other items; second is mix; and third is volume leverage or deleverage. The cost inflation bucket drove over 85% of the increase and was mostly due to higher materials and manufacturing costs, partially offset by cost savings.

您可能還記得，為了進一步細分驅動因素，我們將銷貨成本分為 3 個領域。首先是其他成本通膨，包括成本通膨、折舊、成本節約等項目；第二是混合；第三是成交量槓桿或去槓桿化。成本上漲推動了超過 85% 的成長，主要是由於材料和製造成本上升，部分被成本節省所抵消。

The impact of volume leverage had an 80 basis point benefit in the COGS per hectoliter in the quarter. Other COGS per hectoliter drivers included mix, which accounted for the remainder of the increase and was largely due to geographic mix. Underlying marketing, general and administration expenses increased 11.6%. About half of the planned incremental $100 million in marketing spend in the second half of 2023 was in the third quarter, and it largely went to supporting the momentum of our core brands. Our investments focused on retaining our existing drinkers and attracting new ones, including using addressable channels or places where we can use data to more precisely target them. And further, we continue to strongly invest behind live sports. Based on our brand health and share performance, we believe that this investment is working.

銷售槓桿的影響使本季每百公升的銷售成本提高了 80 個基點。每百公升銷售成本的其他驅動因素包括混合，這佔了其餘成長的原因，並且主要歸因於地理混合。基本行銷、一般及管理費用成長 11.6%。 2023 年下半年計畫增加的 1 億美元行銷支出中約有一半用於第三季度，大部分用於支持我們核心品牌的發展勢頭。我們的投資重​​點是保留現有的飲酒者並吸引新的飲酒者，包括使用可尋址的管道或地方，我們可以使用數據更準確地瞄準他們。此外，我們繼續大力投資現場體育賽事。根據我們的品牌健康度和股票表現，我們相信這項投資是有效的。

Also, general and administration expenses were higher. This was primarily due to incentive compensation expenses, which is a variable expense tied to our operating performance. And as you have seen, it's been a very strong year.

此外，一般費用和管理費用也較高。這主要是由於激勵補償費用，這是與我們的經營績效相關的可變費用。正如您所看到的，這是非常強勁的一年。

Turning to capital allocation. Our priorities remain to invest in our business to drive sustainable top and bottom line growth, reduced net debt as we remain committed to maintaining and, in time, improving our investment-grade rating and return cash to shareholders. With our greatly improved financial flexibility, we now have increased optionality among these priorities, and we will utilize our models to determine the best anticipated return for our shareholders.

轉向資本配置。我們的首要任務仍然是投資於我們的業務，以推動可持續的營收和利潤成長，減少淨債務，因為我們仍然致力於維持並及時提高我們的投資等級評級並向股東返還現金。隨著我們大大提高的財務靈活性，我們現在在這些優先事項之間增加了選擇性，我們將利用我們的模型來確定股東的最佳預期回報。

Looking at these priorities. First, we continue to invest in the business with paid capital expenditures of $494 million for the first 9 months of the year. This was down slightly due to the timing of capital projects. Capital expenditures continue to focus on our Golden brewery modernization and expanding our capabilities to drive efficiencies, cost savings and sustainability initiatives.

看看這些優先事項。首先，我們繼續投資該業務，今年前 9 個月已支付資本支出 4.94 億美元。由於資本項目的時間安排，這一數字略有下降。資本支出繼續關注我們的 Golden 啤酒廠現代化，並擴大我們提高效率、節省成本和永續發展計劃的能力。

And second, we made further progress in reducing our net debt. We ended the quarter with net debt of $5.4 billion, a decline of $584 million since December 31, 2022. This was supported by our July cash repayment of our $500 million Canadian debt upon its maturity on July 15. As a reminder, our outstanding debt is essentially all at fixed rates. Our exposure to floating rate debt is limited to our commercial paper and revolving credit facilities, both of which had 0 balance outstanding at quarter end.

其次，我們在減少淨債務方面取得了進一步進展。本季結束時，我們的淨債務為54 億加元，自2022 年12 月31 日以來減少了5.84 億加元。這得益於我們在7 月15 日到期時以現金償還了5 億加元的加拿大債務。謹提醒您，我們的未償債務基本上都是固定利率。我們的浮動利率債務曝險僅限於我們的商業票據和循環信貸額度，這兩者在季度末的未償餘額均為 0。

Given our strong EBITDA performance and lower net debt, our net debt to underlying EBITDA ratio declined to 2.2x. This is in alignment with our long-term goal of under 2.5x. And I would like to add that in October, S&P Global upgraded credit rating for Molson Coors to BBB from BBB-.

鑑於我們強勁的 EBITDA 表現和較低的淨債務，我們的淨債務與基本 EBITDA 的比率下降至 2.2 倍。這與我們低於 2.5 倍的長期目標一致。我想補充一點，10月份，標準普爾全球公司將Molson Coors的信用評級從BBB-升級為BBB。

And that brings me to our third priority, returning cash to shareholders. We paid a quarterly cash dividend of $0.41 per share and maintain our intention to sustainably increase the dividend. And as announced at our Strategy Day on October 3 our board authorized a new share repurchase program of up to $2 billion over the next 5 years. It replaces and supersedes the repurchase program previously approved by the Board in the first quarter of 2022. The new program is intended as a mixture of sustained and opportunistic purchases as part of our balanced and cohesive approach to prioritizing capital allocation intended to improve shareholder value creation.

這讓我想到了我們的第三個優先事項，即向股東返還現金。我們支付了每股 0.41 美元的季度現金股息，並維持了持續增加股息的意圖。正如 10 月 3 日戰略日所宣布的那樣，我們的董事會批准了未來 5 年內高達 20 億美元的新股票回購計畫。它取代並取代董事會先前於2022 年第一季批准的回購計劃。新計劃旨在將持續性和機會性購買結合起來，作為我們優先考慮資本分配的平衡和凝聚方法的一部分，旨在提高股東價值創造。

In summary, we are extremely pleased with our third quarter performance and confident in our ability to sustainably deliver top and bottom line growth in the years to come.

總之，我們對第三季的業績非常滿意，並對我們在未來幾年可持續實現營收和利潤成長的能力充滿信心。

And with that, I'll turn it over to you, Gavin.

這樣，我就把它交給你了，加文。

Thank you, Tracey. In the third quarter, we continued the growth trajectory that we've been on for nearly 2 full years. In the quarter, each of our top 3 global markets are growing net sales revenue, volume, share or all 3. In the U.S., our shipments were up over 1 million hectoliters compared to the third quarter of 2022, and we were the top volume share gainer in the industry. Coors Light and Miller Lite are on track to collectively deliver net sales revenue growth for the third straight year, something that had not done since Miller and Coors came together in 2008. Coors Banquet volumes were up nearly 30%. Coors Light volumes were up double digits and Miller Lite volumes were up high single digits. We were the top dollar share gainer in the U.S. economy segment. In fact, our 2 biggest economy brands grew dollar and volume share of industry in the quarter. We have gained the second most U.S. share of flavored alcohol beverages of all major brewers.

謝謝你，特蕾西。第三季度，我們延續了近兩年來的成長軌跡。本季度，我們全球前3 個市場的淨銷售收入、銷量、份額或全部實現增長。在美國，與2022 年第三季度相比，我們的出貨量增加了超過100 萬百升，並且銷量排名第一行業份額增長者。 Coors Light 和 Miller Lite 預計將連續第三年共同實現淨銷售收入成長，這是自 2008 年 Miller 和 Coors 合併以來從未出現過的情況。Coors Banquet 的銷量成長了近 30%。 Coors Light 銷量成長了兩位數，Miller Lite 銷量成長了個位數。我們是美國經濟領域美元份額漲幅最大的公司。事實上，我們兩個最大的經濟品牌在本季的產業銷售額和銷售份額都有所成長。我們在美國所有主要啤酒製造商中的風味酒精飲料市場份額位居第二。

We grew share nationally in Canada in every region of the country and in every segment of our industry. Coors Light widened its position as the #1 light beer in the country, a position it has held since March. And the Molson brands grew share. Miller Lite grew volumes by 50%, and we grew more share in flavor alcohol beverages than any other company in the industry. We were the best-performing brewer in the U.K. in both value and volume share, adding some very exciting news from the U.K. market, we are now the #2 brewer in London after ranking a distant #5 player only a few years ago. The transformation of our portfolio in the London market is a real testament to our team's commitment to a clear strategy that drives focus across all channels and customers. Additionally, Madri is now the second largest above premium lager in the on-premise and third largest world beer in the total trade across the U.K.

我們在加拿大全國各個地區和行業各個領域的份額都在成長。 Coors Light 擴大了其作為該國排名第一的淡啤酒的地位，自 3 月以來一直保持這一地位。 Molson 品牌的份額不斷增長。 Miller Lite 的銷量成長了 50%，我們在風味酒精飲料中的份額增長超過了業內任何其他公司。無論從價值還是銷售份額來看，我們都是英國表現最好的啤酒製造商，再加上來自英國市場的一些非常令人興奮的消息，我們現在是倫敦排名第二的啤酒製造商，而幾年前我們還遠遠排名第五。我們在倫敦市場的投資組合的轉變真正證明了我們團隊致力於制定明確的策略，以推動所有管道和客戶的注意力。此外，Madri 目前是本地啤酒中第二大優質啤酒，以及英國總貿易量中的世界第三大啤酒。

And in Central and Eastern Europe, Ožujsko, our core power brand in Croatia is growing value share of the beer category year-to-date, and it has over 50% value share of the core segment. Now of course, our business has benefited greatly from the broader dynamics of the U.S. beer industry over the past 7 months. But as you can see, the improvement in our business is being driven by more than one market. Improvement in our business is being driven by more than a couple of brands. The improvement in our business is being driven by more than one segment of the category and the improvement in our business predates April 1. Year-to-date, each of the top 3 biggest global markets are growing net sales revenue, volume and volume share.

在中歐和東歐，我們在克羅埃西亞的核心實力品牌 OÅüjsko 迄今為止在啤酒類別中的價值份額不斷增長，在核心細分市場中的價值份額超過 50%。當然，過去 7 個月，我們的業務從美國啤酒行業更廣泛的動態中受益匪淺。但正如您所看到的，我們業務的改善是由多個市場推動的。我們業務的改善是由多個品牌推動的。我們業務的改善是由該類別的多個細分市場推動的，並且我們業務的改善早於 4 月 1 日。今年迄今為止，全球三大市場的淨銷售收入、銷量和銷量份額均在增長。

And as this slide plainly shows the trajectory of our business has been on the upswing. And in regard to our future, we believe we can lap these results in 2024. We delivered top and bottom line growth in 2022. We're on track to do so again this year. And we plan to do so next year, too. That's the plan we outlined at our Strategy Day last month. We've already gained thousands of tap handles across the U.S. since the beginning of the second quarter. We are already gaining significant amounts of shelf space this fall as retailers work to adjust their space to meet consumer trends. Now I have seen some, let's say, interesting commentary around shelf space. So I want to be extra clear here.

正如這張投影片清楚地表明我們的業務軌跡一直在上升。就我們的未來而言，我們相信我們可以在 2024 年取得這些成果。我們在 2022 年實現了營收和利潤成長。今年我們有望再次實現這一目標。我們也計劃明年這樣做。這是我們上個月在戰略日上概述的計劃。自第二季度初以來，我們已經在美國各地獲得了數千個點擊手柄。今年秋天，隨著零售商努力調整其空間以滿足消費者趨勢，我們已經獲得了大量的貨架空間。現在我看到了一些關於貨架空間的有趣評論。所以我想在這裡特別明確。

The vast majority of chain retail accounts typically update their shelf space once a year due to the complexity of lining all their stores and they typically do so in the spring. Over 50 retailers have made space changes in late summer or fall due to the massive shift in consumer purchase behavior we have seen since April 1. This is not common. In fact, in the last 5-plus years, we haven't had any adjustments in the summer or a change to the premium segment in the fall. Among the chains that moved their resets up to the fall, Molson Coors was the biggest beneficiary with Miller Lite and Coors Light gaining 6% to 7% more shelf space. For brands of this size, that is a massive amount of space. In fact, it's tens of thousands of feet of space.

由於排列所有商店的複雜性，絕大多數連鎖零售帳戶通常每年更新一次貨架空間，並且通常在春季進行。由於自 4 月 1 日以來消費者購買行為發生巨大轉變，超過 50 家零售商在夏末或秋季進行了空間調整。這種情況並不常見。事實上，在過去五年多的時間裡，我們沒有在夏季進行任何調整，也沒有在秋季對高端細分市場進行任何改變。在將重新調整時間推遲到秋季的連鎖店中，Molson Coors 是最大的受益者，Miller Lite 和 Coors Light 的貨架空間增加了 6% 至 7%。對於這種規模的品牌來說，這是一個巨大的空間。事實上，這是數萬英尺的空間。

Regardless of how some folks might characterize the current environment, those are the facts. The conversations for spring resets are well underway. And while we can't exactly predict the future, it's safe to say that we expect to gain more shelf space for our big brands in those resets as well. These retailers are smart business people. And when consumer trends shift to the degree they are shifting, chain retailers have 2 options: chain shelf space allocations to meet the trends or leave money on the table. And they're not going to leave money on the table. It's as simple as that. We'll have more to say about 2024 on our fourth quarter call in February. But between the work we have done to improve our business trajectory and the current dynamics in our industry, we feel confident in this year, confident in our ability to grow next year and confident in our ability to grow in the years ahead.

無論有些人如何描述當前環境，這些都是事實。關於春季重置的對話正在順利進行中。雖然我們無法準確預測未來，但可以肯定地說，我們希望在這些重置中為我們的大品牌贏得更多的貨架空間。這些零售商都是聰明的商人。當消費者趨勢轉變時，連鎖零售商有兩種選擇：連鎖店貨架空間分配以滿足趨勢或保留資金。他們不會把錢留在桌上。就這麼簡單。我們將在 2 月的第四季電話會議上對 2024 年進行更多討論。但在我們為改善業務軌跡所做的工作和行業當前的動態之間，我們對今年充滿信心，對明年的成長能力充滿信心，並對未來幾年的成長能力充滿信心。

And with that, we'll take your questions.

接下來，我們將回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) We now have Lauren Lieberman from Barclays.

（操作員指示）我們現在有來自巴克萊銀行的勞倫·利伯曼。

Great I was just curious if you could talk a little bit about going back to the beginning of the call, Tracey's commented in the release on the beer category in the U.S. being stronger than what you had previously expected. So any color you can add on that would be great. Kind of what do you think some of those key drivers are? Is it around key consumer cohorts? Just color on the beer industry backdrop would be great.

太棒了，我只是好奇你是否能談談回到電話開始時的情況，特雷西在新聞稿中評論說，美國的啤酒類別比你之前預期的要強。所以你可以添加任何顏色都會很棒。您認為其中一些關鍵驅動因素是什麼？是否圍繞關鍵消費者群體？只要在啤酒行業的背景上塗上顏色就很棒了。

Thanks, Lauren. Look, I mean, in Q1, the industry was down 2.7%, in Q2 it was down 2.5%, and in Q3, it was down 1.3%, that's in the U.S., obviously per Circana. So an improvement and as Tracey said, that wasn't the level of improvement that we were expecting to see. And obviously, Hard Seltzers are still a big part of that decline. Certainly while some buyers are switching categories, and certainly, our data says that some drinkers have left within the category, we're gaining share, Miller Lite, Coors Light are healthy and growing share strongly. And that share has been stable for the last 25 weeks. It's a structural change to the industry that is sticking, whether you look at it on a 1-week basis, a 4-week basis, a 13-week basis or a 26-week basis, it has stuck.

謝謝，勞倫。看，我的意思是，第一季度，該行業下降了 2.7%，第二季度下降了 2.5%，第三季度下降了 1.3%，這是在美國，顯然是根據 Circana 的數據。正如特雷西所說，這是一個改進，這不是我們期望看到的改進水平。顯然，硬蘇打水仍然是這一下降的重要原因。當然，雖然一些買家正在轉換類別，當然，我們的數據表明一些飲酒者已經離開了該類別，但我們正在獲得份額，Miller Lite、Coors Light 都很健康，並且份額正在強勁增長。該份額在過去 25 週內一直保持穩定。這是一個持續存在的行業結構性變化，無論你以 1 週、4 週、13 週還是 26 週為基礎來看，它都已經持續了。

We now have Bryan Spillane of Bank of America.

現在請來美國銀行的布萊恩‧斯皮蘭 (Bryan Spillane)。

So Tracey, I guess I had just a question -- 2 questions around cash flow. One is I know we took the pretax profit or the -- I'm sorry, the profit after tax guide up, but you left the free cash flow range. So I guess it's just why not, I guess, a higher conversion on free cash flow and then -- or on cash flow? And then second to that, just again, you've got some cash hanging around and the stocks performed the way it has. So just any thought -- any way we should be thinking about whether or not you put some of that cash to work to buy back shares?

崔西，我想我只有一個問題──兩個關於現金流的問題。一是我知道我們採用了稅前利潤，或者——對不起，稅後利潤指導上調，但你離開了自由現金流範圍。所以我想這就是為什麼不提高自由現金流的轉換率，然後——或現金流率？其次，再一次，你手邊有一些現金，而且股票的表現也和現在一樣。因此，我們應該考慮是否將部分現金用於回購股票？

Yes. Thanks, Bryan. So look, the free cash flow range that we gave was already quite wide. So we're comfortable just leaving it where it is. In terms of capital allocation, look, our priorities haven't changed. It's those 3 buckets that we speak about. It is investing in our business to drive the sustainable long-term top and bottom line growth. And that could be investment in our breweries or from an M&A point of view, the sort of string of pearls approach. We will continue to reduce net debt with a desire to improve our investment-grade rating.

是的。謝謝，布萊恩。所以看，我們給的自由現金流範圍已經相當寬了。所以我們很樂意將其留在原處。在資本配置方面，你看，我們的優先事項沒有改變。我們所說的就是這三個桶子。它投資於我們的業務，以推動可持續的長期收入和利潤成長。這可能是對我們啤酒廠的投資，或者從併購的角度來看，這是一種珍珠鍊方法。我們將繼續減少淨債務，以提高我們的投資等級評級。

And as I remarked, we did get an upgrade from S&P and then returning cash to shareholders. So we did announce the $2 billion -- up to $2 billion share repurchase plan over the next 5 years. And we'll consider all of those things. I think the good thing is that with our strong free cash flow delivery, we do have optionality as to how we can balance the allocation of capital behind these priorities. But as always, we'll run all of the ideas through our models and make sure that we're investing where we are driving the higher return for our shareholders.

正如我所說，我們確實獲得了標準普爾的評級，然後向股東返還現金。因此，我們確實宣布了未來 5 年內 20 億美元——最多 20 億美元的股票回購計畫。我們將考慮所有這些事情。我認為好處是，憑藉我們強大的自由現金流交付，我們確實可以選擇如何平衡這些優先事項背後的資本分配。但與往常一樣，我們將透過我們的模型運行所有想法，並確保我們投資於為股東帶來更高回報的領域。

We now have Andrea Teixeira of JPMorgan.

現在我們有摩根大通的安德里亞特謝拉 (Andrea Teixeira)。

I was just going to talk about a little bit of the share of voice. And I think you in the Analyst Day, you obviously discussed that against the incremental spend this year. Is there any KPIs you can talk about as you're tracking the development of the incremental spend? And if there is anything, I know most of that $90 million, I believe, incremental spend for I'm not mistaken in the quarter, it's mostly compensation but wondering if it's going to reaccelerate even further in the fourth quarter, so it sets you up for 2024.

我只是想談談一些聲音份額。我認為您在分析師日顯然針對今年的增量支出討論了這一點。在追蹤增量支出的發展時，您是否可以談論任何關鍵績效指標？如果有什麼的話，我知道這9000 萬美元中的大部分，我相信，增量支出，因為我在這個季度沒有弄錯，這主要是補償，但想知道它是否會在第四季度進一步加速，所以它讓你預計到 2024 年。

And on that, I was just trying to get -- Gavin, you mentioned that your market share continues to be solid. I think one of your main competitors talking about Bud Light recovering a bit. I know, obviously, from a variable base, anything you would be expecting to see and I understand, obviously, you may not count on that being -- that share gain being structurally 100%, but most of it could be. So I was wondering if you can comment a little bit more on the market share performance that is baked in your outlook next year.

對此，我只是想知道——加文，你提到你的市場佔有率仍然穩固。我認為你們的主要競爭對手之一正在談論百威淡啤酒正在恢復一點。顯然，我知道，從可變的基礎來看，任何你期望看到的東西，我理解，顯然，你可能不會指望這一點——結構性的份額增長是 100%，但大部分可能是。所以我想知道您是否可以對明年展望中的市場份額表現發表更多評論。

Thanks, Andrea. Look, from a marketing point of view, we're focused on the quality and effectiveness of our marketing spend versus the sort of level of spends that drive the best returns. And we certainly try and make sure that every single dollar counts. We've got great tools that we've had for a number of years, which evolve and they're designed to make sure that we get the required marketing effectiveness. We know which creative assets are working hardest and which channels are working hardest for that. So we're going to continue to put the right commercial pressure behind our brands to support the momentum.

謝謝，安德里亞。從行銷的角度來看，我們關注的是行銷支出的品質和有效性，而不是帶來最佳回報的支出水準。我們當然會努力確保每一塊錢都很有價值。我們擁有多年使用的優秀工具，這些工具不斷發展，旨在確保我們獲得所需的行銷效果。我們知道哪些創意資產最努力，哪些管道為此最努力。因此，我們將繼續對我們的品牌施加適當的商業壓力，以支持這一勢頭。

I just want to maybe clear to you on one thing, right? So the extra $90 million in the fourth quarter, there's about $50 million of that is the marketing. And that's part of the $100 million we said we're going to spend on extra marketing in the second half of the year. So we spent half of that in the third quarter behind really big beer drinking occasions like football, which we'll do again in the fourth quarter. And then obviously, a large component of what's left is, as Tracey said, the employee-related costs.

我只是想向你澄清一件事，對嗎？因此，在第四季度額外的 9000 萬美元中，大約有 5000 萬美元用於行銷。這是我們所說的下半年額外行銷支出 1 億美元的一部分。因此，我們在第三季度花了一半的時間在足球等大型啤酒飲用場合，我們將在第四季度再次這樣做。顯然，正如特雷西所說，剩下的很大一部分是與員工相關的成本。

Look, as far as share gains are concerned, our share position has been stable for the last 25 weeks. It's a structural share change to the industry that we believe is going to stick. And yes, I know there's been a lot of noise about trends changing and whether these results are sticking. So let me just share the facts and these aren't our facts, these are Circana and the fact is total share for Coors Light and Miller Lite has stuck over the past 7 months through the latest 4 weeks of tracked channel data on a dollar change basis, Coors Light and Miller Lite both continue to put up double-digit growth. And at the same time, Bud Light has lost just under $3 share points. The overall portfolio for our biggest competitors lost under $5 share points. And that's consistent if you look at the 4-week data, the 13-week data and the 26-week data.

看，就股價漲幅而言，我們的股價狀況在過去 25 週內一直保持穩定。這是產業的結構性份額變化，我們相信這種變化將會持續下去。是的，我知道關於趨勢變化以及這些結果是否持續存在許多噪音。因此，讓我分享事實，這些不是我們的事實，這些是 Circana，事實是 Coors Light 和 Miller Lite 的總份額在過去 7 個月中通過最近 4 週的美元變化跟踪渠道數據保持不變在此基礎上，Coors Light 和Miller Lite 均繼續保持兩位數成長。與此同時，百威淡啤酒 (Bud Light) 的股價下跌了近 3 美元。我們最大的競爭對手的整體投資組合損失了不到 5 美元的份額。如果您查看 4 週數據、13 週數據和 26 週數據，結果是一致的。

In fact, Bud Light's actually getting worse. The brand's dollar share loss over the last 4 weeks was more than any 4-week period this year. And as I said, these aren't -- I mean this isn't a pole or a possibility, right? This is the fact as laid out in Circana, and we believe that the strength is going to continue into 2024, and we're very confident in the position of our core brands in both the U.S. and obviously, in Canada.

事實上，百威淡啤酒的情況正在變得更糟。該品牌過去 4 週的美元份額損失比今年任何 4 週期間都要多。正如我所說，這些不是——我的意思是這不是極點或可能性，對吧？這就是 Circana 中闡述的事實，我們相信這種優勢將持續到 2024 年，我們對我們的核心品牌在美國和加拿大的地位非常有信心。

We've got a very clear plan on keep these share gains. We presented it to our distributors at our 4 national distributor convention. We showed our plans. And honestly, the energy around our plans is something I have not seen, not only for Miller Lite and Coors Light, but for everything. We had a 95% positive score from our distributors. That has never happened. And we laid out a clear acceleration plan at our Strategy Day on how we're going to retain the share gains. So yes, we believe we can retain the share that has proven to be extremely sticky on every measure that we look at.

我們有一個非常明確的計劃來維持這些份額收益。我們在第四屆全國經銷商大會上向我們的經銷商展示了它。我們展示了我們的計劃。老實說，我們計劃中的能量是我從未見過的，不僅是 Miller Lite 和 Coors Light，而且是所有的東西。我們的經銷商給予我們 95% 的正面評價。這種情況從未發生過。我們在策略日制定了明確的加速計劃，說明我們將如何保留份額收益。所以，是的，我們相信我們可以保留已被證明在我們所考慮的每項指標上都具有極高黏性的份額。

We now have Peter Grom of UBS.

現在我們請來了瑞銀集團的彼得‧葛羅姆。

So I was hoping to get some thoughts on just kind of the underlying COGS per hectoliter, which was kind of the lowest year-on-year increase in quite some time. Maybe just first, can you just help us understand what's embedded in the guidance for the fourth quarter? I think you mentioned an increase in underlying COGS due to high inflation in EMEA and APAC. Is that just an increase year-on-year? Or is that an increase sequentially versus what we just saw in 3Q? And I know we're going to get more details on '24 in February. But maybe you can just give us some insight in terms of how you're thinking about some of the key cost buckets based on what we can see today.

因此，我希望對每百公升的基本銷售成本有一些想法，這是相當長一段時間以來最低的同比增幅。或許首先，您能幫助我們了解第四季指引中包含的內容嗎？我想您提到了由於歐洲、中東和非洲和亞太地區的高通膨導致基本銷貨成本增加。這只是同比增長嗎？或者與我們剛剛在第三季度看到的相比，這是連續成長的嗎？我知道我們將在二月份獲得有關“24”的更多詳細資訊。但也許您可以根據我們今天所看到的情況，向我們提供一些關於您如何考慮一些關鍵成本的見解。

I'll take that. So yes, look, we did say that we expect inflation to continue to be a headwind for us in the back half of the year, but to moderate, now as it relates to Q4, we do expect our COGS per hectoliter to be a headwind. And this is because of the continued inflationary pressure in EMEA and APAC region, where we've seen continued inflation in the double-digit range. But the other drivers of our Q4 COGS per hectoliter would be a lower volume leverage in Q4 lower than Q3 and Q2. For those reasons that we spoke about coming in -- coming out of Q3 and into Q4 and then also expecting our brand volume to outpace the financial volume growth. And also, we've got higher planned maintenance costs in the fourth quarter. So those would be the big drivers of COGS per hectoliter in Q4.

我會接受的。所以，是的，我們確實說過，我們預計通膨將在今年下半年繼續成為我們的逆風，但為了緩和，現在與第四季度相關，我們確實預計每百升的銷貨成本將是逆風。這是因為歐洲、中東和非洲和亞太地區持續存在通膨壓力，我們看到這些地區的通膨率持續維持在兩位數範圍內。但第四季每百升銷售成本的其他驅動因素是第四季的銷售槓桿低於第三季和第二季。基於我們談到的這些原因——從第三季度進入第四季度，然後也期望我們的品牌數量將超過財務數量的成長。此外，我們第四季的計劃維護成本更高。因此，這些將是第四季每百升銷售成本的主要推動因素。

We now have Bonnie Herzog of Goldman Sachs.

現在我們有高盛的邦妮·赫爾佐格。

I guess I wanted to ask a little bit about your MG&A expense. Could you maybe talk a little bit more about the areas where you're going to be investing incremental marketing dollars as you kind of talk through the end of the year. And then should we think about you continuing to invest at a higher rate as we think about next year to support your brands and the growth that kind of Gavin, you mentioned in the stickiness. Just trying to think about or trying to hear how you're thinking about this.

我想我想問一下您的 MG&A 費用。您能否再多談談您在年底將要投入增量行銷資金的領域。然後，我們是否應該考慮您繼續以更高的速度進行投資，因為我們考慮明年以支持您的品牌和加文的增長，您在粘性中提到了這一點。只是試著思考或試著聽聽你是如何看待這個問題的。

Thanks, Bonnie. Yes. Look, without giving a complete look under the tent for competitive reasons, obviously, we're going to continue to drive strong pressure in the market with our very effective campaigns have made to chill with Coors Light and taste like Molson. We've got significant increase is planned and already executed in the third quarter and also in the back half of this year, especially behind the high beer consumption moments like football is.

謝謝，邦妮。是的。看，出於競爭原因，我們不會全面了解幕後情況，但顯然，我們將繼續透過我們非常有效的行銷活動在市場上施加強大的壓力，這些活動使 Coors Light 變得涼爽，味道像 Molson。我們計劃大幅增加產量，並已在第三季和今年下半年執行，特別是在足球等啤酒消費高的時刻。

We're also going to leverage our targeted media and digital tactics to retain the new drinkers, which we've got into our brands, primarily Coors Light, Miller Lite and Coors Banquet. We've also got some innovation that's coming in the fourth quarter. Blue Moon non-alc, is launching in December, so that we're ahead of the dry January time frame. And we're going to invest to make sure that we get more space in store.

我們還將利用有針對性的媒體和數位策略來留住新的飲酒者，我們已將其納入我們的品牌中，主要是 Coors Light、Miller Lite 和 Coors Banquet。我們也將在第四季推出一些創新。 Blue Moon non-alc 將於 12 月推出，因此我們領先 1 月的干燥時間範圍。我們將進行投資，以確保我們獲得更多的商店空間。

So whether that's continued to capitalize on the share that we've gained of displays, we've gained more than any other major brewer. We're going to invest in appropriate areas to make sure that our retailers understand that the incremental shelf space and the tap handles that we're getting, that we're going to support that with strong marketing. And then we're going to invest in our EMEA and APAC business, particularly behind brands like Madri, Carling and Ožujsko. So those would be the general directions and themes, Bonnie.

因此，無論是否繼續利用我們所獲得的展示份額，我們所獲得的收益都比其他主要啤酒製造商都要多。我們將在適當的領域進行投資，以確保我們的零售商了解我們所獲得的增量貨架空間和水龍頭把手，我們將透過強有力的行銷來支持這一點。然後我們將投資我們的歐洲、中東和非洲和亞太地區業務，特別是 Madri、Carling 和 OÅüjsko 等品牌。所以這些就是整體方向和主題，邦妮。

We now have Filippo Falorni of Citi.

現在我們有花旗銀行的菲利波‧法洛尼 (Filippo Falorni)。

I had a question on your U.S. brand volumes even on an adjusted basis, the 6.1% that you quoted, it still looks below what we're seeing in track channel data. So maybe can you comment on the performance in on track, on-premise and other smaller off-premise retailers? And then thinking about Q4, you mentioned you expect brand volume to accelerate by you are planning to ship below brand volumes. It didn't seem like the overshipment in Q3 was that large. So maybe you can comment on where inventories are in the distributor channel that will be helpful as well. And whether we should think if you don't ship over in Q4, should we see a catch-up in Q1 of next year?

我對你們的美國品牌銷售有一個疑問，即使在調整後的基礎上，你們引用的 6.1%，它仍然低於我們在軌道渠道數據中看到的數據。那麼您能否評論一下賽道上、店內和其他小型場外零售商的表現？然後考慮第四季度，您提到您預計品牌銷售會加速，因為您計劃出貨量低於品牌銷售量。第三季的過剩出貨量似乎並沒有那麼大。因此，也許您可以評論經銷商通路中的庫存位置，這也會有所幫助。我們是否應該考慮，如果您在第四季度不發貨，我們是否應該在明年第一季看到趕上？

Thanks, Filippo. Trace, do you want to take the shipment question, and I'll take the sort of Circana or Nielsen number difference between ours and what you're seeing in tracked channels. I would say there's probably 3 big differences between the number we disclosed and the track channels you highlighted one of them, which is the trading adjustment. But then the other one is obviously the significant load-in that took place at the end of the third quarter last year, which obviously we didn't have this year because we had that large price increase last year.

謝謝，菲利波。 Trace，您想回答出貨問題嗎？我將採用 Circana 或 Nielsen 數字與您在追蹤管道中看到的數字之間的差異。我想說，我們披露的數字和您強調的追蹤管道之間可能有 3 個很大的差異，其中之一就是交易調整。但另一個顯然是去年第三季末發生的重大加載，顯然今年我們沒有，因為去年價格大幅上漲。

And from a tracked channels point of view, that measures consumer behavior, whether our brand sales represent sales that our distributors put into the retail stores. So the retailers would be buying ahead of the price increase that doesn't necessarily mean that the consumer is buying ahead of the price increase. And those would be the 2 biggest differences between those 2 numbers, Filippo. From a shipments point of view, Trace, do you want to take that?

從追蹤通路的角度來看，這可以衡量消費者的行為，也就是我們的品牌銷售額是否代表我們的經銷商投入零售店的銷售額。因此，零售商會在價格上漲之前購買，但這並不一定意味著消費者在價格上漲之前購買。這將是這兩個數字之間最大的兩個差異，Filippo。從出貨的角度來看，Trace，你想接受嗎？

Yes. So look, we've spoken about our expectations for our brand volume to exceed our financial volume and really that's because of the healthy inventory levels that we ended Q3 on -- which enabled us to ship ahead of our expectations. So just in terms of our inventory levels, like coming out of Q3 and even today, we are at higher inventory levels than we saw in the prior year. So again, we feel very comfortable with the inventory levels going into Q4, coming out of Q4 and being able to have inventory levels healthy to -- as we go into peak selling next year.

是的。所以看，我們已經談到了我們對我們的品牌數量超過我們的財務數量的預期，這實際上是因為我們在第三季度結束時保持了健康的庫存水平，這使我們能夠提前發貨。因此，就我們的庫存水準而言，從第三季開始，甚至到今天，我們的庫存水準都高於去年。因此，我們對進入第四季度的庫存水準感到非常滿意，第四季度結束後，當我們明年進入銷售高峰時，我們能夠保持健康的庫存水準。

We now have Vivien Azer of TD Cowen.

現在我們有 TD Cowen 的 Vivien Azer。

The earnings season thus far, we've heard some cautious commentary from some of your peers around negative mix shift, shifting to smaller sizes, some weakness in the lower income consumer more broadly, student debt repayments obviously came October 1. I know you guys probably hesitant to comment on intra-quarter trends. But I was just wondering, Gavin or Trace to put some perspective on whether you're seeing similar dynamics where there might be more refined in terms of spending, more choiceful spending?

到目前為止的財報季，我們已經聽到一些同行對負面組合轉變、轉向更小規模、更廣泛的低收入消費者的一些疲軟、學生債務償還顯然將於10 月1 日到來等方面發表了一些謹慎的評論。我知道你們可能不願意評論季度內的趨勢。但我只是想知道，Gavin 或 Trace 能否提出一些觀點，看看你們是否看到了類似的動態，在支出方面可能會更加精緻，支出更有選擇？

Yes. Thanks, Vivien. You broke up a little bit there, but I think I got the gist of your question. From an overall consumer health point of view, we do remain cautious given the macroeconomic environment that is out there. We're particularly cautious in Central and Eastern Europe, which has been pretty consistent with our view for a while, right? I mean the tough economy, the high inflation has impacted our Central Eastern Europe business much more than our U.K. business, which is honestly more weather-related.

是的。謝謝，薇薇安。你在那裡有點分裂，但我想我明白了你問題的要點。從整體消費者健康的角度來看，考慮到當前的宏觀經濟環境，我們確實保持謹慎。我們在中歐和東歐尤其謹慎，這與我們一段時間以來的觀點非常一致，對嗎？我的意思是，艱難的經濟和高通膨對我們中東歐業務的影響遠大於我們的英國業務，老實說，英國業務與天氣的關係更大。

We do, though, expect conditions to improve as inflation falls in Europe, and we are starting to see inflation falling there. In Canada, we are seeing softness. It's a tough economic environment out there. We're particularly pleased with our own performance in Canada, where we've really grown strongly. And actually, our share growth in Canada is higher than it is in the United States.

不過，我們確實預計，隨著歐洲通膨下降，情況會有所改善，而且我們開始看到那裡的通膨下降。在加拿大，我們看到了疲軟。那裡的經濟環境很嚴峻。我們對自己在加拿大的表現感到特別滿意，我們在那裡發展得非常強勁。事實上，我們在加拿大的份額成長高於美國。

In March, Coors Light took over as the #1 light beer and has maintained that position and even Molson's growing share of industry volume and NSR. In the U.S., we're still seeing premiumization with growth in RTDs and spirits albeit at a slower rate because of the falloff in sales. Consumers, to your point, are seeking more value through purchasing decisions, which they're making, either into the larger pack sizes like 30 packs or into the smaller pack sizes singles and 6 packs. The on-premise is running pretty at pace with the off-premise business. And we haven't seen any material trade down into our economy brands. If it happens, we're ready. I mean, Miller High Life and Keystone in particular, are well positioned and are showing very nice improvement given where they were. So if it comes, we believe that the portfolio that we've got is ready for it.

3 月份，Coors Light 成為排名第一的淡啤酒，並一直保持這一地位，甚至 Molson 在行業銷量和 NSR 中所佔的份額也不斷增長。在美國，我們仍然看到隨著即飲飲料和烈酒的成長而出現高端化，儘管由於銷量下降而速度較慢。就您而言，消費者正在透過購買決策尋求更多價值，無論是購買較大包裝（如 30 件裝）還是購買較小包裝（單件裝和 6 件裝）。內部業務的運作速度與外部業務的運作速度相當同步。我們還沒有看到任何實質的交易進入我們的經濟品牌。如果發生的話，我們就準備好了。我的意思是，尤其是 Miller High Life 和 Keystone，它們處於有利位置，並且相對於它們所處的位置顯示出非常好的進步。因此，如果它到來，我們相信我們現有的投資組合已經準備好了。

We now have Rob Ottenstein of Evercore.

現在我們請來了 Evercore 的 Rob Ottenstein。

Great. Just a few follow-ups on some of the points that have been mentioned. So Gavin, strong results. You're obviously super confident in the business and the momentum disconnect, right, in terms of what the stock is doing, I think you're trading at about a 10% free cash flow valuation. So given that, and I know your general points on capital allocation. I guess the question is, is there any impediments or any issues in terms of buying back stock now as in -- between now and the end of the year. So is there anything to stop you from doing that? So that's question number one. Question number 2 is just -- you had mentioned that the business was better in October than in Q3. Is that global? Is that U.S., Canada and Europe? Or is it just a particular region?

偉大的。只是對已經提到的一些要點進行一些後續行動。所以加文，取得了很好的成績。顯然，你對業務和動力脫節非常有信心，對吧，就股票的表現而言，我認為你的交易價格約為 10% 的自由現金流估值。有鑑於此，我知道您關於資本配置的一般觀點。我想問題是，從現在到今年年底，在回購股票方面是否有任何障礙或問題。那麼有什麼可以阻止你這樣做嗎？這是第一個問題。問題 2 只是—您曾提到 10 月份的業務比第三季更好。這是全球性的嗎？是美國、加拿大和歐洲嗎？或只是某個特定地區？

Thanks, Rob. To your second question, I'll take that first. It is global. It's across the spectrum, not just the U.S. To your earlier question around why I believe and why we're confident that we're going to continue to deliver. I'm not going to rehash the points I made earlier about our share position have been stable for the last 25 weeks and the gains we've made being very sticky. But I would say to you that over the last 4 years, Robert, we made a lot -- we made a number of statements when we launched our revitalization plan. We said we would streamline our company and deliver $600 million savings, and we did that. We said we would grow the top and bottom line of our business.

謝謝，羅布。關於你的第二個問題，我先回答。它是全球性的。這是跨領域的，不僅僅是美國。對於你之前關於我為什麼相信以及為什麼我們有信心我們將繼續兌現承諾的問題。我不會重複我之前提出的觀點，即過去 25 週我們的股價一直保持穩定，而且我們取得的收益非常黏性。但我想對你說，羅伯特，在過去的四年裡，我們做了很多——當我們啟動振興計劃時，我們發表了很多聲明。我們說過我們將精簡公司並節省 6 億美元，我們做到了。我們說過我們將增加我們業務的收入和利潤。

And by the end of this year, we will have done it 2 years in a row. We said we would strengthen our core brands, and we've done exactly that. We said we will become more than just a beer company, and we have become more than a beer company, we also said we would grow more of our portfolio in above premium, and we've done exactly that, not just in beyond beer but also in beer with a brand like Madri.

到今年年底，我們將連續兩年做到這一點。我們說過要加強我們的核心品牌，我們也確實做到了。我們說過，我們將不僅僅是一家啤酒公司，而且我們已經不僅僅是一家啤酒公司，我們還說過，我們將增加更多高於溢價的投資組合，我們確實做到了這一點，不僅在啤酒之外，而且在其他領域也有像Madri這樣的品牌的啤酒。

Sorry, Gavin, I don't mean to interrupt you. I mean I know time's short. I wasn't challenging that. I was just saying, in the light of that, right, in the light of your progress, given where the stock is coming down here in the light of everything you're saying, which I'm not challenging. Is there any impediment? Is there anything to stop you from buying back stock between now and the end of the year? And again, sorry for interrupting.

抱歉，加文，我無意打擾你。我的意思是我知道時間不多了。我並沒有挑戰這一點。我只是說，鑑於此，是的，鑑於您的進展，鑑於您所說的一切，考慮到股票的下跌情況，我並不是在挑戰。有什麼障礙嗎？從現在到年底，有什麼可以阻止您回購股票嗎？再次抱歉打擾了。

I'm glad you agree with all my points, Robert, I had a few more I was going to make too.

我很高興你同意我的所有觀點，羅伯特，我還有一些要說的。

I am not sure that, there's no miscommunication.

我不確定，沒有溝通不良的情況。

If we -- as Tracey said, if we look at our capital allocation priorities, we're where we need to be. We have an approved buyback program. And Robert, as we are required to do, we will disclose any and all shares that we may buy in a quarter when we release our queue, I think, in February of next year.

如果我們——正如特雷西所說，如果我們考慮我們的資本配置優先事項，我們就處於我們需要的位置。我們有核准的回購計劃。羅伯特，正如我們被要求做的那樣，當我們發布我們的隊列時，我想是在明年二月，我們將披露我們可能在一個季度購買的所有股票。

We now have the next question from the line of Nadine Sarwat of Bernstein.

現在我們有來自伯恩斯坦的納丁·薩爾瓦特 (Nadine Sarwat) 的下一個問題。

Two questions from me. So first, with earnings clearly coming ahead of expectations today. You guys have taken a full year guidance. So that's clearly not just a timing issue but could you perhaps give us a sense of how much of that stronger earnings are driven by temporary versus permanent factors, perhaps particularly thinking to any temporary benefit from positive operating leverage on the fixed cost base, given shipments exceeded depletions.

我有兩個問題。首先，今天的獲利明顯超出預期。你們已經接受了全年的指導。因此，這顯然不僅僅是一個時間問題，但您能否讓我們了解一下，強勁的收益有多少是由臨時因素和永久因素推動的，也許特別考慮到固定成本基礎上的積極運營槓桿帶來的任何臨時收益，考慮到出貨量超過消耗量。

And then secondly, circling back to the point of market share gains, sustainability, I fully appreciate your comments on the latest scanner data and when the facts are there. I believe ABI, though quoted some survey data indicating a willingness of some lost Bud Light drinkers to return to the brand? I'd be curious to hear if you have any survey data or additional consumer insights that you could share that adds to your conviction that those market share gains will continue to be sticky.

其次，回到市場份額成長和永續性問題，我完全感謝您對最新掃描器數據和事實的評論。我相信 ABI，儘管引用了一些調查數據，表明一些流失的百威淡啤酒飲用者願意回歸該品牌？我很想知道您是否有任何調查數據或其他消費者見解可以分享，這讓您更加相信這些市場份額的成長將繼續具有黏性。

Thanks, Nadine. Do you want to talk about operating leverage, Trace, and I'll talk about the market share gains and the stickiness.

謝謝，納丁。你想談談經營槓桿嗎，Trace，我會談談市場佔有率的成長和黏性。

Yes. So Nadine, in the prepared remarks, we spoke about the volume leverage, benefiting us by about 80 basis points on the COGS per hectoliter increase. So yes, that's for Q3, and just in terms of operating leverage, our fixed cost comprises approximately 20% of our enterprise underlying COGS. Obviously, volume leverage helps us with those fixed costs over more of the volume. And so as we saw in Q3, it does have a fairly significant impact -- and also, that does depend on -- the year-over-year does depend on the markets. In some of our markets, the fixed cost may be slightly higher. So the 20% that I've given you is really on an enterprise basis.

是的。因此，納丁在準備好的發言中談到了銷售槓桿，每百公升的銷售成本增加使我們受益約 80 個基點。是的，這是第三季的情況，僅就營運槓桿而言，我們的固定成本約佔企業基本 COGS 的 20%。顯然，銷售槓桿可以幫助我們減少更多銷售的固定成本。正如我們在第三季看到的那樣，它確實產生了相當重大的影響，而且，這確實取決於——同比確實取決於市場。在我們的一些市場，固定成本可能會略高。所以我給你的 20% 其實是基於企業的。

Thanks, Trace. Look don't -- I can't really comment on Anheuser-Busch [polling] data, Nadine. But what I can say to you is that sales of what matter, right? And the sales are continuing as they have done since early April. As I said, the share gains are unchanged in 4 weeks, in 13-week and in 26 week. And in fact, in the latest 4-week read the big brand is actually getting worse. So that's the best indication of what's actually happening is -- the share has come to us and it is sticking and has done now for 7 months. And we've got a bunch of plans in place, which we showed our distributors, and we revealed a little bit of it our strategy, Dave, which highlights our intention to retain that share gain.

謝謝，特雷斯。聽著，我不能真正評論 Anheuser-Busch [民意調查] 數據，Nadine。但我可以對你說的是，銷售很重要，對嗎？自四月初以來，銷售仍在繼續。正如我所說，股票漲幅在 4 週、13 週和 26 週內沒有變化。事實上，在最近 4 週的閱讀中，大品牌的情況實際上變得越來越糟。因此，這就是實際發生的情況的最佳指示 - 份額已經到達我們手中，並且已經保留了 7 個月。我們已經制定了一系列計劃，我們向經銷商展示了這些計劃，戴夫，我們透露了其中的一些策略，這凸顯了我們保留份額收益的意圖。

We now have Eric Serotta of Morgan Stanley.

現在請來摩根士丹利的艾瑞克‧塞羅塔。

So coming back to U.S. brand volumes. You called out the double digits for Coors Light and Banquet and the high single-digit in Miller Lite. And your overall depletions were up in mid-single digits, which implies the rest of the portfolio was a lot lower. I realize a lot of those segments are not growing but bringing life to (inaudible) now. But can you give some color as to how your -- I'd say your performance in the rest of the portfolio, either by segment out a couple of brands and how that is tracking versus (inaudible) 3 to 6 months ago.

回到美國品牌銷售。您指出 Coors Light 和 Banquet 的銷售額達到了兩位數，而 Miller Lite 的銷售額達到了個位數。你的整體損耗上升到中個位數，這意味著投資組合的其餘部分要低得多。我意識到其中許多部分並沒有成長，而是為現在帶來了生機（聽不清楚）。但是，您能否透過劃分幾個品牌以及與 3 至 6 個月前（聽不清楚）相比的方式來說明您在其餘產品組合中的表現如何？

Yes, Eric, that was tough to catch the total drift of your question. Let me try. Obviously, there is the trading day adjustment we talked about, there is the timing of holidays, and there is the timing of the price increases that come into that. We obviously do have some total brands, which impact us. We are seeing some of the same trends as everybody else is seeing from a Seltzer point of view, in particular. And that's why we've taken a much more broader approach to flavor. The total flavor segment Seltzers, FABs and RTDs was about 5% of the category. That number has tripled to about 13% now. It's a $9 billion business. But there's no question that Seltzer within the flavor category is declining fairly meaningfully. You've seen that with our brands, and you've seen that with our competitors brand.

是的，艾瑞克，很難理解你問題的全部。讓我嘗試。顯然，有我們談到的交易日調整，有假期的時間，還有隨之而來的價格上漲的時間。顯然，我們確實擁有一些對我們產生影響的整體品牌。我們看到的一些趨勢與其他人所看到的趨勢相同，特別是從蘇打水的角度來看。這就是為什麼我們對口味採取了更廣泛的方法。蘇打水、FAB 和 RTD 風味細分市場總量約佔該類別的 5%。現在這個數字增加了兩倍，達到 13% 左右。這是一項價值 90 億美元的業務。但毫無疑問，口味類別中的蘇打水正在大幅下降。您已經在我們的品牌和我們競爭對手的品牌中看到了這一點。

The data that we've looked at from a Hard Seltzer's point of view, shows that it provided an entry point into flavor for consumers. And once they discovered flavor, they started to experiment and trade into FABs and RTDs and so on. And that's why we built a diversified portfolio of brands. And from a performance point of view, we're very pleased with the performance in the flavor space.

我們從硬蘇打水的角度觀察的數據表明，它為消費者提供了了解口味的切入點。一旦他們發現了風味，他們就開始嘗試並交易 FAB 和 RTD 等。這就是我們建立多元化品牌組合的原因。從性能的角度來看，我們對風味空間的表現非常滿意。

We're #2 share gainer for major brewers in F&Bs. We've got the #3 and the #5 Hard Seltzer in the category or admittedly a declining category. We've got the top innovation in flavor in 2021, 2022, in the summer of 2023. We've got simply spiked within that space, which is on fire. It's got nearly 5% of the FAB segment. And we're bringing new build and borrow brands to the space with the Peace Hard Tea and the launch of Happy Thursday.

我們是餐飲業主要啤酒製造商中排名第二的份額成長者。我們在該類別中獲得了排名第三和第五的硬蘇打水，或者無可否認，這是一個正在下降的類別。我們將在 2021 年、2022 年和 2023 年夏季實現口味的頂級創新。我們已經在這個火熱的領域中脫穎而出。它佔據了 FAB 細分市場近 5% 的份額。我們將透過「和平硬茶」和「快樂星期四」的推出，將新品牌和借用品牌引入該領域。

From a premiumization point of view, Peroni doing well. Blue Moon is operating in a challenged segment, as you've seen from a craft point of view, it's still the #1 brand in the craft segment. But we've experienced softness with Blue Moon largely due to those the craft category challenges. We've got a really clear plan in place of how we're going to change that. We're already starting to see positive display trends. And we've got a big year plan for Blue Moon in 2024, which we unveiled for our distributors in September in which they like to like, and that includes new innovation, which is coming, as I said, in December.

從高端化的角度來看，Peroni 表現不錯。藍月亮在一個充滿挑戰的領域中運營，正如您從工藝角度看到的那樣，它仍然是工藝領域的第一品牌。但我們在藍月亮方面經歷了疲軟，這主要是由於工藝類別的挑戰。我們已經制定了一個非常明確的計劃來說明如何改變這種狀況。我們已經開始看到正面的展示趨勢。我們為藍月亮制定了 2024 年的重大年度計劃，我們在 9 月向我們的經銷商公佈了他們喜歡的計劃，其中包括新的創新，正如我所說，它將在 12 月推出。

And then finally, in economy, yes, it's a challenged segment, but we're the top dollar share gainer in the economy space that we -- we're pleased with the performance of our 2 big brands there, Miller High Life and Keystone. So that's a walk around the park for you, Eric.

最後，在經濟領域，是的，這是一個充滿挑戰的領域，但我們是經濟領域美元份額漲幅最大的公司，我們對我們的兩個大品牌 Miller High Life 和 Keystone 的表現感到滿意。艾瑞克，這對你來說就是在公園散步。

We have our final question from Chris Carey of Wells Fargo Securities.

最後一個問題是來自富國銀行證券公司的克里斯凱裡（Chris Carey）。

One on the EMEA and APAC segment and then just a high-level question. The price mix tailwinds that we're seeing right now, how much of that is our premiumization within the business versus on-premise versus just straight less pricing? I'm trying to determine how much of this tailwind that we're seeing right now is perhaps sustainable structural versus maybe just a cyclical recovery of the business. And then I was wondering if you could just comment on competitive activity as we get closer to spring and spring resets. Are you seeing any notable shift in the market?

一個是關於歐洲、中東和非洲和亞太地區的問題，然後是一個高級問題。我們現在看到的價格組合順風，其中有多少是我們在業務內的高端化與內部部署與直接降低定價？我試圖確定我們現在看到的這種順風有多少可能是可持續的結構性的，而不是可能只是業務的周期性復甦。然後我想知道，隨著我們越來越接近春季和春季重置，您是否可以對競賽活動發表評論。您是否看到市場有任何顯著的變化？

Sorry, what was the second question, Chris?

抱歉，第二個問題是什麼，克里斯？

Competitive activity on...

競爭活動關於...

Competitive activity, are you -- sorry, yes, I should have been more clear. Competitive activity for the total business, specifically in the U.S. as we get closer to spring resets as competitors are jostling for space. So are you starting to see any changes? Obviously, you're stepping up marketing spending in Q4, I don't know if that's why, but just a broader comment on whether you're seeing any developments from a competitive activity, specifically in the U.S.? And then the other question was on the pricing in EMEA and APAC and how much of this is sort of durable because of premiumization and how much is perhaps just list pricing that all that will normalize and some cyclical recovery of your channel mix.

競爭活動，是嗎——抱歉，是的，我應該說得更清楚。整個業務的競爭活動，特別是在美國，隨著我們接近春季重置，競爭對手正在爭奪空間。那麼您開始看到任何變化了嗎？顯然，您在第四季度加大了行銷支出，我不知道這是否是原因，但只是更廣泛地評論您是否看到競爭活動（特別是在美國）的任何進展？然後另一個問題是歐洲、中東和非洲和亞太地區的定價，其中有多少是由於高端化而具有持久性的，有多少可能只是標價，所有這些都將正常化，以及渠道組合的一些週期性恢復。

Chris, look, it's a bit of everything there, right? So I mean, obviously, we did get strong pricing in our EMEA APAC business. Obviously, it varies by country and is driven largely by whatever the inflation environment is in those countries. But from a mix point of view, we're getting strong benefits from particularly the continued very strong growth in Madri, which is an above premium brand and as I confirm it was me or Tracey that said it, but it's up 50% in the quarter and is continuing to grow strongly. It's one of the primary reasons why we're the #2 brewer in London, which was somewhat unthinkable a few years ago.

克里斯，看，這裡面什麼都有，對吧？所以我的意思是，顯然，我們在歐洲、中東和非洲、亞太地區業務確實獲得了強勁的定價。顯然，它因國家而異，並且很大程度上取決於這些國家的通貨膨脹環境。但從混合的角度來看，我們從Madri的持續強勁增長中獲得了巨大的利益，Madri是一個高於高端的品牌，正如我確認是我或Tracey所說的那樣，但它在2019年增長了50%。季度並持續強勁成長。這是我們成為倫敦第二大啤酒製造商的主要原因之一，這在幾年前是不可想像的。

So a large part of the overall U.K. business is now in the above premium space, and it is accelerating. So that's part of it. Hard to tell where pricing is going to land out in EMEA APAC and it does vary by country. And it is driven largely by the local dynamics. I do think it's safe to say that it's not going to be at the historical levels that we've experienced over the last few years. From a U.S. point of view, from a price realization point of view, we put price into the markets that we were expecting to put it into in the fall. And as we've said before, I would expect pricing to fall back to more historical levels in the new year, the ones that go in spring.

因此，英國整體業務的很大一部分現在處於上述高端領域，並且正在加速成長。這就是其中的一部分。很難判斷亞太地區歐洲、中東和非洲地區的定價將在哪裡，而且確實因國家而異。它主要是由當地的動態驅動的。我確實認為可以肯定地說，它不會達到我們過去幾年經歷的歷史水平。從美國的角度來看，從價格實現的角度來看，我們將價格投入到我們預計在秋季投入的市場。正如我們之前所說，我預計價格將在新的一年（即春季）回落至歷史水平。

And from a shelf reset point of view, yes, I guess everybody is fighting for space. The beauty of our position at the moment is that we've got the facts and the data to support meaningful increases in space for our brands. And the retailers that have gone in fall have given us tens of thousands of extra cubic feet of space. And we're going to fight for every square foot of space based on those trends as we head into the spring reset. So thanks, Chris.

從貨架重置的角度來看，是的，我想每個人都在爭奪空間。我們目前的優勢在於，我們擁有事實和數據來支持我們的品牌空間的有意義的成長。秋天離開的零售商為我們提供了數萬立方英尺的額外空間。當我們進入春季重置時，我們將根據這些趨勢爭奪每一平方英尺的空間。所以謝謝，克里斯。

Thank you. I would like to turn it back to Greg Tierney for any final remarks.

謝謝。我想請格雷格·蒂爾尼（Greg Tierney）發表最後的評論。

Okay. Very good. Thank you, operator, and I appreciate everyone joining us today. I know there may be additional questions we weren't able to answer, so please follow up with our Investor Relations team, and we look forward to talking with many of you as the year progresses. So with that, thanks, everybody, for participating, and we'll talk soon. Cheers.

好的。非常好。謝謝您，接線員，我感謝今天加入我們的所有人。我知道可能還有其他問題我們無法回答，因此請與我們的投資者關係團隊聯繫，我們期待隨著時間的推移與你們中的許多人交談。因此，感謝大家的參與，我們很快就會討論。乾杯。

I can confirm that does conclude today's call. Thank you all for joining. Please have lovely rest of your day, and you may now disconnect your lines.

我可以確認今天的電話會議確實結束了。感謝大家的加入。請度過愉快的一天，現在您可以斷開線路了。