AT&T Inc (T) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the AT&T Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call.

歡迎來到 AT&T 第四季度收益電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

（操作員說明）提醒一下，正在錄製此會議。

I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Michael Viola, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations.

我現在想把會議轉交給你的主持人，投資者關係高級副總裁 Michael Viola。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝大家，早上好。

Welcome to our fourth quarter conference call.

歡迎來到我們的第四季度電話會議。

I'm Mike Viola, Head of Investor Relations for AT&T.

我是 AT&T 投資者關係主管 Mike Viola。

And joining me on the call today is Randall Stephenson, AT&T's Chairman and CEO; John Stankey, Chief Operating Officer for AT&T; and John Stephens, AT&T's Chief Financial Officer.

今天和我一起參加電話會議的是 AT&T 董事長兼首席執行官 Randall Stephenson； AT&T 首席運營官 John Stankey；以及 AT&T 的首席財務官 John Stephens。

Randall will begin the call with a brief overview of the 2019 accomplishments and a look at our 3-year plans.

蘭德爾將以 2019 年成就的簡要概述和我們的 3 年計劃開始通話。

John Stephens will then discuss fourth quarter results, and then John Stankey will walk you through key areas of our 2020 operating plan.

John Stephens 隨後將討論第四季度業績，然後 John Stankey 將帶您了解我們 2020 年運營計劃的關鍵領域。

John Stephens will then close the presentation with an update on our capital allocation plan and 2020 financial guidance.

約翰·斯蒂芬斯 (John Stephens) 然後將以我們的資本分配計劃和 2020 年財務指南的最新情況結束演講。

Then we'll take your questions.

然後我們會回答你的問題。

Before I begin, I want to call your attention to our safe harbor statement, which says that some of our comments today may be forward-looking, and as such, they're subject to risks and uncertainties.

在我開始之前，我想提請您注意我們的安全港聲明，該聲明說我們今天的一些評論可能是前瞻性的，因此，它們受到風險和不確定性的影響。

Results may differ materially, and additional information is available on the Investor Relations website.

結果可能存在重大差異，更多信息可在投資者關係網站上找到。

I also want to remind you that we're in the quiet period for the FCC Spectrum Auction 103, so we cannot address any questions about that today.

我還想提醒您，我們正處於 FCC 頻譜拍賣 103 的靜默期，因此我們今天無法解決任何相關問題。

As always, our earnings materials are available on the Investor Relations page of the AT&T website.

與往常一樣，我們的收益材料可在 AT&T 網站的投資者關係頁面上獲取。

That includes our news release, investor briefing, 8-K and other associated schedules.

這包括我們的新聞發布、投資者簡報、8-K 和其他相關時間表。

And so with that, I'm going to turn the call over to Randall Stephenson.

因此，我將把電話轉給蘭德爾斯蒂芬森。

Randall?

蘭德爾？

Thanks, Mike.

謝謝，邁克。

I want to start on Slide 3 to close out 2019.

我想從幻燈片 3 開始，結束 2019 年。

And coming into 2019, we laid out a detailed plan for the year, and that plan was a series of specific steps necessary to exit 2019 on a path of sustained growth.

進入 2019 年，我們為這一年制定了詳細的計劃，該計劃是在 2019 年走上持續增長的道路上所必需的一系列具體步驟。

A simple summary of Slide 3 is that we met or exceeded every single one of those objectives, and the road map is set for the next 3 years.

幻燈片 3 的一個簡單總結是我們達到或超過了這些目標中的每一個，並且為未來 3 年設定了路線圖。

I told you that our top priority for 2019 was to reduce our debt and exit the year at around 2.5x debt to EBITDA.

我告訴過你，我們 2019 年的首要任務是減少我們的債務，並以約 2.5 倍的債務與 EBITDA 結束這一年。

Done.

完畢。

We have now reduced net debt by about $30 billion since we closed Time Warner.

自從我們關閉時代華納以來，我們現在已經減少了大約 300 億美元的淨債務。

And at the end of 2019, our net debt to adjusted EBITDA was about 2.5x.

到 2019 年底，我們的淨債務與調整後 EBITDA 之比約為 2.5 倍。

We gave you the formula for exactly what it would take to get to this debt level.

我們為您提供了達到此債務水平所需的確切公式。

First, we would need to generate $26 billion of free cash flow.

首先，我們需要產生 260 億美元的自由現金流。

Done.

完畢。

We exceeded that handily, generating a record $29 billion for the year.

我們輕而易舉地超越了這一數字，全年創造了創紀錄的 290 億美元。

Second, we would need to monetize nonstrategic assets and generate $6 billion to $8 billion of cash.

其次，我們需要將非戰略資產貨幣化並產生 60 億至 80 億美元的現金。

Done.

完畢。

We actually generated nearly $18 billion, more than double our target.

我們實際上產生了近 180 億美元，是我們目標的兩倍多。

And we've already announced an additional $2 billion, which will close in 2020.

我們已經宣布追加 20 億美元，將於 2020 年結束。

On adjusted EPS, we came in right on plan, low single-digit growth.

在調整後的每股收益方面，我們按計劃實現了低個位數的增長。

At WarnerMedia, we achieved the 2019 merger synergies, and we're preparing to launch HBO Max in May.

在 WarnerMedia，我們實現了 2019 年的合併協同效應，我們準備在 5 月推出 HBO Max。

Growing wireless service revenues was critical, and those revenues were up nearly 2% for the full year.

無線服務收入的增長至關重要，全年這些收入增長了近 2%。

We stabilized Entertainment Group EBITDA and brought in our capital investment right on plan.

我們穩定了娛樂集團的 EBITDA 並按計劃引入了我們的資本投資權利。

And after sustained investment in our network, AT&T exited 2019 with the best and fastest wireless network in the United States.

在對我們的網絡進行持續投資之後，AT&T 在 2019 年以美國最好、最快的無線網絡結束。

Our 5G network covers 50 million people today, and we expect to have nationwide 5G coverage in the second quarter.

我們的 5G 網絡今天覆蓋了 5000 萬人，我們預計第二季度將在全國范圍內實現 5G 覆蓋。

As we look forward, our 2019 performance positions us well for the next 3 years.

展望未來，我們 2019 年的表現將為我們在未來 3 年做好準備。

Our plan is very straightforward, and we've laid it out for you on Slide 4. We see revenue growth every year and expect a 1% to 2% 3-year CAGR through 2022.

我們的計劃非常簡單，我們已在幻燈片 4 上為您列出。我們看到收入每年都在增長，預計到 2022 年 3 年復合年增長率為 1% 至 2%。

By 2022, adjusted EBITDA margins expand by 200 basis points, adjusted EBITDA grows by about $6 billion, free cash flow is between $30 billion and $32 billion, and adjusted EPS grows to between $4.50 and $4.80.

到 2022 年，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率擴大 200 個基點，調整後的 EBITDA 增長約 60 億美元，自由現金流在 300 億美元至 320 億美元之間，調整後的每股收益增長至 4.50 美元至 4.80 美元之間。

This is a plan that generates a lot of cash over the next 3 years.

這是一項在未來 3 年內產生大量現金的計劃。

And the Board has developed a very thoughtful capital allocation approach that will maintain a solid balance sheet and drive shareholder value.

董事會制定了一種非常周到的資本分配方法，將保持穩健的資產負債表並推動股東價值。

First, we'll continue to invest aggressively and at top-tier levels into our core businesses.

首先，我們將繼續在頂級水平上積極投資於我們的核心業務。

We expect to invest $20 billion in 2020.

我們預計 2020 年將投資 200 億美元。

Leading in 5G is critical for AT&T, and we're not slowing down.

領先 5G 對 AT&T 至關重要，我們並沒有放慢腳步。

We're more than 75% complete on our FirstNet build, and that will continue.

我們的 FirstNet 構建已經完成了 75% 以上，而且還會繼續。

And we're continuing to deploy fiber.

我們將繼續部署光纖。

In terms of our capital structure, over the last 18 months, we've retired the lion's share of the debt we issued to acquire Time Warner.

就我們的資本結構而言，在過去的 18 個月裡，我們已經償還了為收購時代華納而發行的大部分債務。

And we'll continue to pay down debt but at a much slower pace.

我們將繼續償還債務，但速度要慢得多。

Our cash will be focused over the next 3 years on retiring the shares we issued to acquire Time Warner.

我們的現金將在未來 3 年集中用於退回我們為收購時代華納而發行的股票。

By the end of 2022, we will have retired 100% of the debt and 70% of the shares from our Time Warner transaction.

到 2022 年底，我們將償還時代華納交易中 100% 的債務和 70% 的股份。

In fact, we retired 56 million of these shares in 2019.

事實上，我們在 2019 年收回了其中的 5600 萬股。

We also plan to retire about 100 million more in the first quarter of this year through a $4 billion accelerated share repurchase agreement.

我們還計劃通過一項價值 40 億美元的加速股票回購協議，在今年第一季度再退回約 1 億人。

By 2022, our leverage target is a very comfortable net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 2.0 to 2.25x.

到 2022 年，我們的槓桿目標是非常舒適的淨債務與調整後 EBITDA 的比率為 2.0 至 2.25 倍。

You can also expect us to continue streamlining our portfolio as we monetize additional assets of $5 billion to $10 billion this year.

隨著我們今年將 50 億至 100 億美元的額外資產貨幣化，您還可以期待我們繼續精簡我們的投資組合。

And as I said earlier, we've already executed agreements that will generate $2 billion this year.

正如我之前所說，我們已經執行了今年將產生 20 億美元的協議。

John Stephens will cover the specific steps in the plan later.

John Stephens 稍後將介紹該計劃中的具體步驟。

But first, he's going to cover our fourth quarter results.

但首先，他將介紹我們第四季度的業績。

So I'll turn it over to you now, John.

所以我現在把它交給你，約翰。

Thanks, Randall.

謝謝，蘭德爾。

Let me begin with the financial summary on Slide 6. As Randall mentioned, we hit or exceeded all our 2019 targets.

讓我從幻燈片 6 的財務摘要開始。正如 Randall 提到的，我們達到或超過了 2019 年的所有目標。

Let's take a closer look.

讓我們仔細看看。

We grew earnings.

我們增加了收入。

Adjusted EPS was $0.89, up 3.5% for the quarter and up 1.4% for the full year.

調整後每股收益為 0.89 美元，本季度增長 3.5%，全年增長 1.4%。

Cash from operations came in strong at $11.9 billion for the quarter and $48.7 billion for the year.

本季度運營現金收入強勁，為 119 億美元，全年為 487 億美元。

Free cash flow was a record $29 billion for the full year, up 30%.

全年自由現金流達到創紀錄的 290 億美元，增長 30%。

The addition of WarnerMedia made an impact as did adding their receivables to our securitization efforts.

WarnerMedia 的加入產生了影響，將他們的應收賬款添加到我們的證券化工作中也產生了影響。

Our ability to generate cash continues to provide a strong foundation for our capital allocation plan.

我們產生現金的能力繼續為我們的資本配置計劃提供堅實的基礎。

We continue to aggressively invest.

我們繼續積極投資。

CapEx was nearly $20 billion for the full year, and total gross capital investment was $23.7 billion when you include our investments in FirstNet and other vendor payments.

全年資本支出接近 200 億美元，如果包括我們對 FirstNet 的投資和其他供應商付款，總資本投資為 237 億美元。

And without the impact of foreign exchange and foregone licensing revenue in advance of our HBO Max launch, fourth quarter and full year revenues would have been $48 billion and about $184 billion, representing growth in both the quarter and the year.

在我們的 HBO Max 發布之前，如果沒有外彙和放棄許可收入的影響，第四季度和全年的收入將分別為 480 億美元和約 1840 億美元，這意味著本季度和全年都在增長。

Even with these items, operating income margins were stable in the quarter and up 70 basis points for the year.

即使有這些項目，本季度的營業利潤率也很穩定，全年增長了 70 個基點。

All in all, a very good year as we hit our 2019 targets.

總而言之，我們實現了 2019 年的目標，這是非常好的一年。

Let's now look at our segment operating results, starting with our Communications segment on Slide 7. In our Communications segment, mobility continues to build momentum and deliver solid results.

現在讓我們看看我們的部門運營結果，從幻燈片 7 上的通信部門開始。在我們的通信部門，移動性繼續建立勢頭並取得可觀的成果。

Service revenue grew by about 2% in the quarter and for the year.

本季度和全年的服務收入增長了約 2%。

EBITDA grew both in the quarter and for the year.

EBITDA 在本季度和全年都有增長。

And EBITDA margins expanded by 40 basis points for the year, while service margins were stable even with a heavily promotional fourth quarter.

全年 EBITDA 利潤率增長了 40 個基點，而服務利潤率即使在第四季度大力促銷的情況下也保持穩定。

Postpaid phone growth was solid, adding 229,000 in the quarter.

後付費電話增長穩健，本季度增加了 229,000 部。

For the year, we had about 1 million phone net adds, both postpaid and prepaid.

這一年，我們有大約 100 萬電話淨增加，包括後付費和預付費。

This strong performance was driven by our industry-leading network and came even while postpaid phone churn was up as competitors ramped up promotional efforts.

這種強勁的表現是由我們行業領先的網絡推動的，即使隨著競爭對手加大促銷力度，後付費電話流失率也在上升。

You should note, total churn, postpaid and prepaid combined, improved year-over-year by 12 basis points.

你應該注意到，後付費和預付費的總流失率同比提高了 12 個基點。

As Randall mentioned, our Entertainment Group hit its full year target of EBITDA stability.

正如蘭德爾提到的，我們的娛樂集團實現了 EBITDA 穩定的全年目標。

Long-term customer value continues to be our focus as we head into 2020.

進入 2020 年，長期客戶價值仍然是我們關注的重點。

That focus has helped drive growth in video and IP broadband ARPUs.

這種關注有助於推動視頻和 IP 寬帶 ARPU 的增長。

AT&T Fiber continues to grow, adding nearly 200,000 customers.

AT&T Fiber 繼續增長，增加了近 200,000 名客戶。

That brings us to nearly 4 million AT&T Fiber customers, and we have lots of room left to grow.

這使我們擁有近 400 萬 AT&T Fiber 客戶，而且我們還有很大的發展空間。

Premium video net losses improved sequentially by more than 200,000 subscribers, but video losses continue to impact our broadband numbers, especially our bundled customers.

超過 200,000 名訂戶連續改善了優質視頻淨損失，但視頻損失繼續影響我們的寬帶數量，尤其是我們的捆綁客戶。

Our new simplified video offerings position us for the long term, and our subscriber trends are improving.

我們新的簡化視頻產品為我們提供了長期定位，我們的訂戶趨勢正在改善。

Let's turn to Business Wireline.

讓我們轉向美國商業資訊。

The trends in Business Wireline continue to improve.

美國商業資訊的趨勢繼續改善。

Revenues grew sequentially and were down just 1.7% year-over-year.

收入環比增長，同比僅下降 1.7%。

And when you include wireless, Business Solutions grew 1.1%.

當你包括無線時，商業解決方案增長了 1.1%。

EBITDA was relatively steady in the quarter, and EBITDA margins were up 40 basis points.

本季度 EBITDA 相對穩定，EBITDA 利潤率上升 40 個基點。

Let's move to WarnerMedia and Latin America results, which are on Slide 8. WarnerMedia had a great quarter when you consider the decision to forego content licensing revenue.

讓我們轉到幻燈片 8 上的 WarnerMedia 和拉丁美洲的結果。當您考慮放棄內容許可收入的決定時，WarnerMedia 有一個很好的季度。

Subscriber revenue growth at both Turner and HBO, combined with lower film and television production cost at Warner Bros., helped offset that pressure.

特納和 HBO 的訂戶收入增長，加上華納兄弟電影和電視製作成本的降低，幫助抵消了這一壓力。

We made the strategic decision to give HBO Max exclusive streaming rights for top programs, including Friends, Big Bang Theory and other popular shows.

我們做出戰略決定，授予 HBO Max 頂級節目的獨家流媒體播放權，包括《老友記》、《生活大爆炸》和其他熱門節目。

In the past, we would have sold these externally.

過去，我們會對外銷售這些產品。

Looking at the impact on the fourth quarter, WarnerMedia revenues would have grown by about 10% if these shows would have been sold.

從對第四季度的影響來看，如果這些節目能夠售出，WarnerMedia 的收入將增長約 10%。

In fact, that 10% organic growth would represent WarnerMedia's best growth rate in 3 years.

事實上，10% 的有機增長將代表 WarnerMedia 三年來的最佳增長率。

And EBITDA would have increased by about $300 million or about 11%.

EBITDA 將增加約 3 億美元或約 11%。

Obviously, this has an upfront cost for us, but we see this as an investment that makes HBO Max even stronger and will pay off over the long term.

顯然，這對我們來說是一筆前期成本，但我們認為這是一項讓 HBO Max 更強大的投資，並且會在長期內獲得回報。

The big news in our Latin American operations is Mexico turning EBITDA positive in the quarter.

我們拉丁美洲業務的重大新聞是墨西哥在本季度將 EBITDA 轉為正數。

The team has done an excellent job of reducing costs and growing revenue in a challenging environment.

在充滿挑戰的環境中，該團隊在降低成本和增加收入方面做得非常出色。

Fourth quarter Mexico EBITDA improved nearly $200 million year-over-year and improved by more than $300 million for the full year.

墨西哥第四季度 EBITDA 同比增長近 2 億美元，全年增長超過 3 億美元。

We continue to press for further gains.

我們繼續爭取進一步的收益。

New wholesale agreement with Telefónica will add to both revenues and EBITDA.

與 Telefónica 的新批發協議將增加收入和 EBITDA。

Going forward, we expect continued improvement.

展望未來，我們期待持續改進。

Vrio continues to work against economic and foreign exchange headwinds.

Vrio 繼續努力應對經濟和外匯逆風。

But even in this environment, it continues to be profitable and generate positive cash flows.

但即使在這種環境下，它仍能繼續盈利並產生正現金流。

Now let me turn it over to John Stankey to cover our 2020 operating plan, and then I'll come back and discuss a capital allocation update.

現在讓我把它交給 John Stankey 來討論我們的 2020 年運營計劃，然後我會回來討論資本配置更新。

John?

約翰？

Thanks, John, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，約翰，大家早上好。

Starting on Slide 10.

從幻燈片 10 開始。

These are the 4 key areas of our 2020 operating plan, where we'll be focused in executing to drive our performance.

這些是我們 2020 年運營計劃的 4 個關鍵領域，我們將在這些領域專注於執行以推動我們的績效。

I'll go into some detail on each of these over the next few minutes, but I'll give you the headlines first.

在接下來的幾分鐘裡，我將詳細介紹其中的每一個，但我會先給你頭條新聞。

Number one is continuing our momentum in mobility because we expect mobility will continue to be the biggest driver of revenue growth and profitability and be a key factor in meeting our 2020 goals.

第一是繼續我們在流動性方面的勢頭，因為我們預計流動性將繼續成為收入增長和盈利能力的最大驅動力，並且是實現我們 2020 年目標的關鍵因素。

Second, a successful launch of HBO Max is critical to our plans in each of the next 3 years.

其次，成功推出 HBO Max 對我們未來 3 年的計劃至關重要。

Many of you were with us for the Analyst Day in October and have seen firsthand why we're so excited about HBO Max and the opportunities it gives us.

你們中的許多人都和我們一起參加了 10 月份的分析師日，親眼目睹了為什麼我們對 HBO Max 及其給我們帶來的機會如此興奮。

We're right on track to launch it in May.

我們有望在 5 月推出它。

Third is growing our broadband revenues by increasing our fiber penetration.

第三是通過提高我們的光纖普及率來增加我們的寬帶收入。

Key to this will be bundling our fiber broadband offer with AT&T TV, which is delivered over our software-based video architecture.

關鍵在於將我們的光纖寬帶產品與 AT&T TV 捆綁在一起，這是通過我們基於軟件的視頻架構提供的。

Finally, we're laser-focused on improving both the effectiveness and the efficiency of our overall operations and, as a result, driving additional costs out of the business.

最後，我們專注於提高整體運營的有效性和效率，從而減少業務的額外成本。

Let me dive into each of these 4 drivers, beginning with mobility on Slide 11.

讓我深入探討這 4 個驅動因素，從幻燈片 11 上的機動性開始。

Last year, our wireless network was recognized as the nation's best and also fastest, thanks in part to our FirstNet build.

去年，我們的無線網絡被公認為全國最好和最快的網絡，這在一定程度上要歸功於我們的 FirstNet 建設。

In fact, we did a few of our own spot tests in December to see how our existing nationwide 5G evolution network compared to the 5G network one of our competitors rolled out last month.

事實上，我們在 12 月進行了一些自己的現場測試，以了解我們現有的全國 5G 演進網絡與我們的競爭對手之一上個月推出的 5G 網絡相比如何。

In 3 out of the 4 test cities, our network had faster speeds and lower latency on average.

在 4 個測試城市中的 3 個中，我們的網絡平均具有更快的速度和更低的延遲。

The point is our strong spectrum position gives us a leg up and allows us to execute a different 5G deployment strategy than our competitors.

關鍵是我們強大的頻譜地位給了我們優勢，使我們能夠執行與競爭對手不同的 5G 部署戰略。

We have the low- and mid-band spectrum to deploy 5G nationwide.

我們擁有在全國范圍內部署 5G 的中低頻段頻譜。

We cover 50 million people today and expect to be nationwide in the second quarter.

我們今天覆蓋了 5000 萬人，預計第二季度將覆蓋全國。

We also have the millimeter wave spectrum we need to deploy 5G+ and its gigabit speeds and super low latency to more densely populated cities.

我們還擁有將 5G+ 及其千兆速度和超低延遲部署到人口更密集的城市所需的毫米波頻譜。

We're in 35 cities today, and we're adding more this year.

我們今天在 35 個城市開展業務，今年還會增加更多。

There's an important point to be made here once we have 5G nationwide.

一旦我們在全國范圍內擁有 5G，這裡有一個重要的觀點。

As you know, smartphone upgrades across the industry have been down for a while now.

如您所知，整個行業的智能手機升級已經下降了一段時間。

In fact, we're coming off a record-low upgrade rate for any fourth quarter in our history.

事實上，我們正在打破我們歷史上任何第四季度的歷史最低升級率。

But fast forward to the back half of this year when popular 5G smartphones and devices should be more available at scale, you can expect higher upgrade rates and equipment revenue growth.

但快進到今年下半年，屆時流行的 5G 智能手機和設備應該更大規模地可用，您可以期待更高的升級率和設備收入增長。

The timing for this upgrade cycle couldn't be more perfect when you consider that we'll be offering HBO Max on our highest ARPU wireless plans with features tuned for premium media consumption and at a time when people are coming into our stores to upgrade.

當你考慮到我們將在我們最高的 ARPU 無線計劃中提供 HBO Max 時，這個升級週期的時機再完美不過了，其功能針對優質媒體消費進行了調整，並且在人們進入我們的商店進行升級的時候。

It's a natural opportunity to further the distribution of HBO Max while adding new mobility subscribers and improving our wireless ARPUs.

這是在增加新的移動用戶和提高我們的無線 ARPU 的同時進一步分發 HBO Max 的自然機會。

HBO Max's content has something for everyone in the family, and that makes it a natural fit for our nearly 25 million postpaid accounts that average more than 3 lines per account.

HBO Max 的內容適合家庭中的每個人，這使其自然適合我們近 2500 萬個平均每個帳戶超過 3 行的後付費帳戶。

As a result, we expect our wireless service revenue growth rate to be higher in 2020.

因此，我們預計 2020 年我們的無線服務收入增長率會更高。

And after adding nearly 1 million phone net adds in 2019, both postpaid and prepaid, we expect 2020 will be an even better year for net adds.

在 2019 年增加了近 100 萬電話淨增加後，包括後付費和預付費，我們預計 2020 年將是淨增加更好的一年。

FirstNet plays an important role here.

FirstNet 在這裡扮演著重要的角色。

We now serve more than 10,000 first-responder agencies and more than 1 million connections with FirstNet.

我們現在為超過 10,000 個急救機構和超過 100 萬個與 FirstNet 的連接提供服務。

We expect those numbers will grow nicely as our FirstNet deployment reaches 80% and new devices and capabilities come to market in the coming months.

我們預計，隨著我們的 FirstNet 部署達到 80% 並且新設備和功能將在未來幾個月投放市場，這些數字將會有很好的增長。

We also expect a higher adoption of our unlimited plans.

我們還希望更多地採用我們的無限計劃。

We're at a little more than 50% penetration today, but we expect the 5G device upgrade cycle will bring into our stores lots of customers not on unlimited plans today.

我們今天的滲透率略高於 50%，但我們預計 5G 設備升級週期將為我們的商店帶來許多今天沒有無限計劃的客戶。

Increasing the adoption of our best unlimited plans is obviously an ARPU growth opportunity for us.

增加我們最好的無限計劃的採用顯然是我們 ARPU 增長的機會。

And when you add into the mix the customers on select unlimited plans will get HBO Max for free, it's a great opportunity to also improve our overall churn, which we've seen happen from giving HBO to current unlimited customers.

當你加入組合時，選擇無限制計劃的客戶將免費獲得 HBO Max，這也是一個改善我們整體流失率的好機會，我們已經看到將 HBO 提供給當前的無限制客戶。

A reduction of 1 basis point of wireless churn across the base is worth about $100 million to us annually.

整個基地的無線用戶流失減少 1 個基點每年對我們來說價值約 1 億美元。

To sum it up, we're expecting growth of more than 2% in mobility service revenues this year.

總而言之，我們預計今年移動服務收入將增長 2% 以上。

Let's go to Slide 12 and the headlines for why we believe HBO Max will be a game changer for our customers and for AT&T.

讓我們轉到幻燈片 12 和頭條新聞，了解為什麼我們相信 HBO Max 將改變我們的客戶和 AT&T 的遊戲規則。

I expect many of you were at the HBO Max Analyst Day in October, and you heard me talk about the 3 pillars required for success in streaming: premier content, technology platform, and marketing and distribution.

我希望你們中的許多人都參加了 10 月份的 HBO Max 分析師日，你們聽到我談論了流媒體成功所需的 3 個支柱：一流的內容、技術平台以及營銷和分銷。

Only AT&T enters the space with a solid footing in all 3.

只有 AT&T 在這三者中都站穩了腳跟。

My excitement and confidence in the HBO Max opportunity have only grown since then.

從那時起，我對 HBO Max 機會的興奮和信心只增不減。

The team has made tremendous progress in every area, and we're on track to launch in May with a unique offering.

該團隊在每個領域都取得了巨大進步，我們有望在 5 月推出一款獨特的產品。

Quite simply, we believe HBO Max will be the highest-quality premium SVOD in the market with a great experience, better curation and higher percentage of culturally relevant offerings than competing products.

很簡單，我們相信 HBO Max 將成為市場上質量最高的優質 SVOD，與競爭產品相比，它具有出色的體驗、更好的策劃和更高比例的文化相關產品。

We're excited to launch HBO Max coming off the tail end of one of our strongest awards seasons ever with new and exciting break-through offerings leading the way.

我們很高興推出 HBO Max，這是我們有史以來最強大的頒獎季之一的尾聲，新的和令人興奮的突破性產品引領潮流。

We captured an industry-leading 34 Emmys and 6 Golden Globe awards.

我們獲得了行業領先的 34 項艾美獎和 6 項金球獎。

Joker had more Academy Award nominations than any other film, highlighting our deep and diverse theatrical content.

小丑獲得的奧斯卡金像獎提名比任何其他電影都多，突出了我們深刻而多樣的戲劇內容。

The awards are only the latest indicator that we continue to create high-quality, culturally relevant content that appeals to a broad consumer base.

這些獎項只是我們繼續創造高質量、與文化相關的內容以吸引廣泛消費者群的最新指標。

And our additional investment in great content is only going to expand the appeal of the service.

我們對精彩內容的額外投資只會擴大服務的吸引力。

With HBO Max, we'll offer consumers more than twice the amount of programming for the same price as HBO today.

借助 HBO Max，我們將以與今天 HBO 相同的價格為消費者提供兩倍以上的節目。

We're making great progress on the HBO product platform as well.

我們在 HBO 產品平台上也取得了很大進展。

Our controlled nonpublic beta is getting solid reviews, and we're gaining invaluable feedback on important but subtle issues like user navigation and screen layout.

我們受控的非公開測試版獲得了可靠的評論，並且我們獲得了關於用戶導航和屏幕佈局等重要但微妙的問題的寶貴反饋。

This work is no less important than award-winning content.

這項工作的重要性不亞於獲獎內容。

Finally, we continue to fine-tune our go-to-market plans, consistent with the unique position with which we enter the market, leveraging our extensive AT&T distribution and embedded base of more than 30 million domestic HBO subscribers.

最後，我們繼續微調我們的上市計劃，以符合我們進入市場的獨特地位，利用我們廣泛的 AT&T 分銷和超過 3000 萬國內 HBO 用戶的嵌入式基礎。

We're in active discussions across our potential distribution partners, both digital platforms and MVPDs.

我們正在積極討論我們潛在的分銷合作夥伴，包括數字平台和 MVPD。

We're making progress, and we expect we'll have deals to announce prior to launch.

我們正在取得進展，我們預計我們會在發布前宣布交易。

Our focus continues to be on providing a compelling value proposition for our HBO distribution partners and our mutual customers.

我們的重點仍然是為我們的 HBO 發行合作夥伴和我們的共同客戶提供令人信服的價值主張。

Our more than 10 million HBO subscribers on AT&T distribution platforms will be offered immediate access to HBO Max at launch, so we'll get off to a fast start.

我們在 AT&T 分發平台上超過 1000 萬的 HBO 訂戶將在發佈時立即獲得 HBO Max，因此我們將快速啟動。

To drive incremental growth, we have unique advantages when combining media and distribution, including our 170 million direct customer relationships across mobile, pay TV and broadband.

為了推動增量增長，我們在結合媒體和分銷方面擁有獨特的優勢，包括我們在移動、付費電視和寬帶領域的 1.7 億直接客戶關係。

Plus, we have 5,500 retail stores who'll be focused on driving incremental HBO Max adoption by bundling it with premium-tiered wireless, broadband or pay TV offers.

此外，我們擁有 5,500 家零售店，它們將通過將 HBO Max 與高端無線、寬帶或付費電視服務捆綁在一起，專注於推動 HBO Max 的逐步採用。

And we'll use AT&T customer insights for WarnerMedia advertising analytics and curation.

我們將使用 AT&T 的客戶洞察來進行 WarnerMedia 廣告分析和管理。

We have very high expectations for HBO Max.

我們對 HBO Max 抱有很高的期望。

And at the same time, we're thrilled about the possibilities of increasing the adoption of higher ARPU services and strengthening the long-term value proposition of our highest-quality and highest ARPU customers.

與此同時，我們很高興有可能增加更高 ARPU 服務的採用，並加強我們最高質量和最高 ARPU 客戶的長期價值主張。

We fully expect HBO Max will have a positive and immediate impact on the stickiness of our wireless and pay TV and broadband offerings.

我們完全預計 HBO Max 將對我們的無線、付費電視和寬帶產品的粘性產生積極和直接的影響。

Now let's look at Entertainment Group.

現在讓我們看看娛樂集團。

Those details are on Slide 13.

這些詳細信息在幻燈片 13 上。

Our EG team delivered our target of stable EBITDA last year.

我們的 EG 團隊去年實現了穩定 EBITDA 的目標。

In 2020, you're going to see us apply the same high-value customer-centric focus while increasing our fiber customer base and launching AT&T TV.

2020 年，您將看到我們同樣以高價值客戶為中心，同時增加我們的光纖客戶群並推出 AT&T TV。

We'll see higher amortization cost in the video business in the first quarter, which creates some tough year-over-year comparisons for EG EBITDA, but on a cash from operations basis, we expect EG to be stable in 2020 versus last year.

我們將看到第一季度視頻業務的攤銷成本更高，這使 EG EBITDA 的同比比較變得艱難，但從運營現金的角度來看，我們預計 EG 在 2020 年與去年相比將保持穩定。

We believe the greatest opportunity within EG is to significantly grow our AT&T Fiber customer base and broadband revenues.

我們認為 EG 內部最大的機會是顯著增加我們的 AT&T 光纖客戶群和寬帶收入。

We have 4 million fiber customers today, and our recent fiber expansion gives us 14 million locations to sell into.

我們今天有 400 萬光纖客戶，我們最近的光纖擴張為我們提供了 1400 萬個銷售點。

Based on our fiber sales experience, we expect to exit 2022 with about 3 million more fiber customers than we have to-date or a total of about 7 million.

根據我們的光纖銷售經驗，我們預計到 2022 年光纖客戶數量將比目前多 300 萬，總計約 700 萬。

This will be a significant lift in market share compared to our traditional performance in our legacy hybrid fiber copper-based footprint.

與我們在傳統混合光纖銅基足跡中的傳統表現相比，這將顯著提升市場份額。

It represents an organic market share growth opportunity on an existing product that I've never experienced in my career.

它代表了現有產品的有機市場份額增長機會，這是我職業生涯中從未經歷過的。

Where we offer competitive broadband speeds, you can expect that we'll lean into video acquisition given the better economics of our improved product portfolio, including AT&T TV and HBO Max, all software-based products with low acquisition costs.

在我們提供有競爭力的寬帶速度的地方，您可以預期我們將傾向於視頻採集，因為我們改進的產品組合具有更好的經濟性，包括 AT&T TV 和 HBO Max，所有基於軟件的產品都具有低購置成本。

Within our broadband footprint, expected as we exit the year, our premium video subscriber declines will be more in line with overall video industry trends.

在我們的寬帶覆蓋範圍內，預計在我們今年結束時，我們的優質視頻用戶下降將更符合整體視頻行業趨勢。

Looking at our total premium video customer base, we expect year-over-year improvements in subscriber losses.

縱觀我們的優質視頻客戶群，我們預計訂戶流失情況將逐年改善。

Now let's turn to Slide 14 to talk about our efficiency and cost initiatives.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 14 來談談我們的效率和成本計劃。

New work to improve the overall efficiency and effectiveness of our operations has progressed over the past few months.

在過去幾個月中，旨在提高我們運營的整體效率和有效性的新工作取得了進展。

We previously shared with you that we're targeting an additional 4% reduction in labor-related costs, including benefits and contract employees in 2020 alone.

我們之前與您分享過，我們的目標是僅在 2020 年將與勞動力相關的成本額外降低 4%，包括福利和合同工。

That work will ramp quickly, and we plan for it to deliver $1.5 billion in additional cost savings.

這項工作將迅速展開，我們計劃通過它額外節省 15 億美元的成本。

In fact, we've already identified and implemented about half of those savings.

事實上，我們已經確定並實施了大約一半的節省。

Another significant opportunity for us is product and information technology rationalization.

對我們來說，另一個重要機會是產品和信息技術合理化。

We feel comfortable that we can generate another $2 billion of annual run rate efficiencies exiting 2022.

我們感到欣慰的是，到 2022 年，我們可以再產生 20 億美元的年度運行效率。

This will come from thinning our product portfolio, simplifying our market offers, rationalizing call centers, modernizing our information technology and enhancing the level of customer self-support.

這將來自精簡我們的產品組合、簡化我們的市場報價、合理化呼叫中心、使我們的信息技術現代化以及提高客戶自助支持水平。

In addition, streamlining will have the added benefit of enhancing our market agility and ultimately lead to improved market effectiveness.

此外，精簡將帶來額外的好處，即增強我們的市場靈活性，並最終提高市場效率。

Our assessment work continues, and I expect, in the next 90 days, we'll have additional efficiency initiatives underway for some of our network, corporate, sales and procurement functions.

我們的評估工作仍在繼續，我預計在接下來的 90 天內，我們將針對我們的一些網絡、企業、銷售和採購職能部門實施額外的效率舉措。

I'll turn it back to John now for his look at capital allocation, 2020 financial guidance.

我現在將它轉回給約翰，看看他對資本配置和 2020 年財務指南的看法。

Thanks, John.

謝謝，約翰。

Strength in our balance sheet was our top priority last year, and our teams did an excellent job of reducing debt and monetizing our asset portfolio.

加強資產負債表是我們去年的首要任務，我們的團隊在減少債務和資產組合貨幣化方面做得非常出色。

This allowed us to begin retiring shares at the end of last year while still meeting our net debt ratio goals.

這使我們能夠在去年年底開始退役股票，同時仍能達到我們的淨負債率目標。

In 2020, you can expect that momentum to continue.

到 2020 年，您可以預期這種勢頭將繼續下去。

It all starts with strong free cash flows.

這一切都始於強勁的自由現金流。

We had record free cash flow last year and expect to be in a similar range this year.

去年我們的自由現金流量創下歷史新高，預計今年也會達到類似的水平。

We achieved this, even with some voluntary funding for retiree medical costs and higher tax payments in the fourth quarter.

我們實現了這一點，即使在第四季度為退休人員醫療費用提供了一些自願資金和更高的稅收。

We also overachieved on asset monetizations.

我們在資產貨幣化方面也超額完成。

We expect to do another $5 billion to $10 billion net monetizations this year with significant efforts already underway.

我們預計今年將再進行 50 億至 100 億美元的淨貨幣化，並且已經做出了重大努力。

At the same time, we continue to evolve our capital structure.

與此同時，我們繼續改進我們的資本結構。

We added more preferred to our capital stack last year when we monetized more than $6 billion of our long-term tower purchase options.

去年，當我們將超過 60 億美元的長期塔樓購買選擇貨幣化時，我們在資本堆棧中增加了更多優先股。

And we also issued $1.2 billion of traditional preferred stock.

我們還發行了 12 億美元的傳統優先股。

The publicly traded preferred stock is new to us, but there is a market for it, and it provides investors another alternative to invest with AT&T.

公開交易的優先股對我們來說是新事物，但它有市場，它為投資者提供了另一種投資 AT&T 的選擇。

In fact, these shares are currently trading at a premium to par.

事實上，這些股票目前的交易價格高於面值。

Investors are looking for secure, dependable returns, which is exactly what this offers.

投資者正在尋找安全、可靠的回報，這正是它所提供的。

And dividend rates at less than our common stock dividend yield make it attractive for us.

低於我們普通股股息收益率的股息率使其對我們具有吸引力。

The tower preferreds also allow us to use very long-term assets to generate cash in a tax-efficient manner.

塔式優先股還允許我們使用非常長期的資產以節稅的方式產生現金。

We also continue to be focused on our 3-year debt reduction targets.

我們還繼續關注我們的 3 年債務削減目標。

Depending on the timing of share retirements and asset monetizations, you will see our net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratios fluctuate throughout the year, but we expect to continue reducing debt for the full year and intend to target leverage in the 2 to 2.25x range by the end of 2022.

根據股票退役和資產貨幣化的時間，您會看到我們的淨債務與調整後 EBITDA 的比率全年波動，但我們預計全年將繼續減少債務，並打算將槓桿率目標定在 2 至 2.25 倍範圍內2022 年底。

Our share retirement has begun in earnest.

我們的股份退休已經正式開始。

We told you we wanted to buy shares as early in the year as possible, and that is what you're seeing.

我們告訴過你我們想在今年早些時候購買股票，這就是你所看到的。

Thanks to our $4 billion ASR, we've already bought back about 85 million shares in January and expect to see another 20 million in the remainder of the first quarter.

得益於我們 40 億美元的 ASR，我們已經在 1 月份回購了約 8500 萬股股票，並預計在第一季度的剩餘時間還會回購 2000 萬股。

You can expect us to continue to buy back shares during the remainder of the year and meet or exceed our 250 million share retirement target for 2020.

您可以期待我們在今年剩餘時間內繼續回購股票，並達到或超過我們 2020 年 2.5 億股的退休目標。

That's on top of the 56 million shares we bought back in 2019.

這是我們在 2019 年回購的 5600 萬股股票之外的。

We have a lot of levers we can pull to optimize our capital structure.

我們有很多槓桿可以用來優化我們的資本結構。

We're focused on managing debt and have a wealth of opportunities with our balance sheet as we showed last year.

正如我們去年所展示的那樣，我們專注於管理債務並在我們的資產負債表上擁有大量機會。

You can expect us to continue to manage it in a prudent way, including issuing additional preferred shares.

您可以期待我們繼續以審慎的方式對其進行管理，包括增發優先股。

Now let me revisit our 2020 guidance on Slide 17.

現在讓我在幻燈片 17 上重溫我們的 2020 年指南。

Our guidance remains consistent with what we told you in October.

我們的指引與我們在 10 月份告訴您的一致。

This year, more so than most, our results will be more weighted to the second half of the year.

今年，與大多數情況相比，我們的結果將更多地集中在下半年。

For example, in the first part of the year, we expect pressure from heavy HBO Max investment, which you saw begin in the fourth quarter.

例如，在今年上半年，我們預計 HBO Max 的巨額投資會帶來壓力，您會在第四季度看到這種投資。

And, in EG, higher content and noncash amortization costs as well as continued pressure on video subs.

而且，在 EG，更高的內容和非現金攤銷成本以及視頻訂閱的持續壓力。

But in the second half of the year, you will see our momentum build.

但在今年下半年，你會看到我們的勢頭增強。

For example, share retirements have been aggressive and will continue, and the EPS benefits will flow increasingly throughout the year.

例如，股票退休一直很激進，並將繼續下去，每股收益收益將在全年不斷增加。

HBO Max will have launched, leading to strong subscriber growth.

HBO Max 將推出，導致用戶強勁增長。

The run rate benefits of our cost reduction plans will be clearly visible.

我們的成本削減計劃的運行率收益將清晰可見。

And 5G, combined with HBO Max, will drive more upgrades and stronger wireless revenue growth later in the year.

5G 與 HBO Max 相結合，將在今年晚些時候推動更多升級和更強勁的無線收入增長。

Again, all of this has been factored into our full year guidance.

同樣，所有這些都已納入我們的全年指導中。

With that in mind, here's what we've committed to: 1% to 2% revenue growth; adjusted EPS of $3.60 to $3.70 a share; stable adjusted EBITDA margins; free cash flow in the $28 billion range with our dividend payout ratio in the low 50s.

考慮到這一點，這就是我們的承諾：1% 到 2% 的收入增長；調整後每股收益 3.60 美元至 3.70 美元；穩定的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率；自由現金流在 280 億美元範圍內，我們的股息支付率在 50 多歲左右。

Gross capital investment in the $20 billion range, and this doesn't include our investments in content; continued debt reduction with share retirement of 250 million or more common shares in 2020 and our net asset monetizations between $5 billion and $10 billion.

總資本投資在 200 億美元左右，這還不包括我們對內容的投資；繼續削減債務，到 2020 年退還 2.5 億股或更多普通股，我們的淨資產貨幣化在 50 億至 100 億美元之間。

Mike, that concludes our presentation.

邁克，我們的演講到此結束。

We're now ready for Q&A.

我們現在準備好進行問答了。

Operator, we'll take the first question.

接線員，我們將回答第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of John Hodulik.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 John Hodulik。

Maybe a couple of questions for John Stankey.

也許有幾個問題要問 John Stankey。

Thanks for the commentary on the entertainment sub trends but maybe a little bit more clarity.

感謝您對娛樂子趨勢的評論，但可能更清晰一點。

I mean, first of all, you saw a slowdown in fiber adds in the quarter.

我的意思是，首先，您看到本季度光纖增長放緩。

What was driving that?

是什麼推動了它？

And I guess, in conjunction with the guidance for sort of more improvement in the back-end of the year, do you expect that trend to reverse?

而且我想，結合今年年底更多改進的指導，你預計這種趨勢會逆轉嗎？

Or when -- how do you expect those adds to sort of play out over the course of the year?

或者什麼時候 - 您如何期望這些添加在一年中發揮作用？

And what drives the acceleration?

是什麼推動了加速？

And then in terms of the HBO Max guidance, the $500 million in incremental expense we saw in '19, does that impact your guidance for the $2 billion in 2020?

然後就 HBO Max 指導而言，我們在 19 年看到的 5 億美元增量費用，這是否會影響您對 2020 年 20 億美元的指導？

John, Happy New Year.

約翰，新年快樂。

So first of all, in fourth quarter of '19, fourth quarter is seasonally a slower quarter.

所以首先，在 19 年第四季度，第四季度是一個季節性較慢的季度。

December is a pretty slow month, in general, for home-based services given the dynamics of the holiday and the like, so that's part of the contribution to the issue of the slowdown.

12 月是一個相當緩慢的月份，一般來說，考慮到假期等的動態，家庭服務，所以這是導致放緩問題的部分原因。

The second is our gross add performance on video wasn't strong.

第二個是我們在視頻上的總添加性能不強。

You see the subscriber trends.

您會看到訂戶趨勢。

As we've shared with you, as we move through this year and we start shifting to AT&T TV, our gross add performance starts to get much stronger.

正如我們與您分享的那樣，隨著我們今年的發展並開始轉向 AT&T TV，我們的總添加性能開始變得更加強勁。

And naturally, when you're able to put AT&T TV, a software-based product with fiber, it's a much more natural combination than a satellite dish and fiber.

很自然地，當您能夠將 AT&T TV（一種基於軟件的產品）與光纖結合使用時，它的組合比衛星天線和光纖要自然得多。

And so as we start to roll out AT&T TV Now in markets and we move in, we're going to see much stronger performance on the fiber side.

因此，當我們開始在市場上推出 AT&T TV Now 並進入市場時，我們將看到光纖方面的表現要好得多。

I'll tell you, as I look at where we are right now in current customer trends, I feel pretty good that that's in fact the case, and we're going to be where we need to be on that.

我會告訴你，當我看看我們現在在當前客戶趨勢中所處的位置時，我覺得事實確實如此，而且我們將成為我們需要的地方。

Frankly, it's not a hard sell.

坦率地說，這並不難推銷。

It's a great product.

這是一個很棒的產品。

It's a product that customers like.

這是客戶喜歡的產品。

I think we could do very well with it, and I don't expect that we're going to see that continue through.

我認為我們可以做得很好，我不認為我們會看到這種情況繼續下去。

So that's what I would tell you.

所以這就是我要告訴你的。

You're going to see recovery in '20.

你將在 20 年看到復蘇。

On the Max side, we gave you a range on what to expect in 2020 in terms of dilution.

在 Max 方面，我們為您提供了 2020 年稀釋方面的預期範圍。

We're not changing any of that range.

我們不會改變任何範圍。

The range is a range for a reason.

範圍是一個範圍是有原因的。

There's a lot of moving parts on Max introduction.

Max 介紹中有很多移動部分。

It's a combination of both going to market with subscribers, and it's a product that's going to continue to grow over the coming years.

它是與訂戶一起進入市場的結合，而且它是一種將在未來幾年繼續增長的產品。

And we're going to be looking in the market for opportunities for other content acquisition and the like.

我們將在市場上尋找其他內容獲取等機會。

And it's entirely possible we may be opportunistic or look at something, and we want the management team to have that flexibility to be able to balance those things out.

我們完全有可能會投機取巧或著眼於某些事情，我們希望管理團隊具有這種靈活性，以便能夠平衡這些事情。

We have subscriber growth coming, and things have been working well with our strategies.

我們的用戶增長即將到來，並且一切都與我們的戰略相得益彰。

We make it a little heavier on trying to build up subscribers and what we expected.

我們在嘗試建立訂閱者和我們的期望方面變得更加沉重。

I think that's the nature of building a new and subscription-oriented business.

我認為這就是建立一個新的、以訂閱為導向的業務的本質。

And so that range is important that we have the flexibility for the management team to do what they want to do.

因此，這個範圍很重要，我們可以靈活地讓管理團隊做他們想做的事。

We feel very strongly we're going to get back that investment as we build this new distribution platform over the coming years.

我們非常強烈地認為，在未來幾年我們建立這個新的分銷平台時，我們將收回這筆投資。

That's why we're doing this.

這就是我們這樣做的原因。

We like the dynamic of ultimately having some control of those customers and being in a position where we can manage that life cycle going forward.

我們喜歡最終對這些客戶有一定控制權並處於我們可以管理未來生命週期的位置的動態。

And we think it's a good, smart, long-term investment.

我們認為這是一項良好、明智的長期投資。

Your next question comes from the line of Philip Cusick.

你的下一個問題來自 Philip Cusick。

John, can you update us on the WarnerMedia strategy from here away from Max?

約翰，你能從這裡向我們介紹 WarnerMedia 的戰略嗎？

We see video industry bundled units declining pretty quickly, even away from you as you decelerate.

我們看到視頻行業的捆綁銷售量下降得非常快，甚至隨著您的減速而遠離您。

How does that change your thoughts on Turner over time and the strategic value there?

隨著時間的推移，這如何改變您對特納的看法以及那裡的戰略價值？

And then can you also give us an update on the low-value video subs that are remaining in the base and how those should come out over the next few quarters?

然後，您能否向我們介紹一下基地中剩餘的低價值視頻潛艇的最新情況，以及這些潛艇在未來幾個季度的表現如何？

Sure.

當然。

Happy to do that, Phil.

很高興這樣做，菲爾。

So if you step back and think about the position we sit in, in the, what I would call, the traditional pay TV universe.

因此，如果你退後一步，想想我們所處的位置，我稱之為傳統的付費電視世界。

I mean, everybody knows it's in transition.

我的意思是，每個人都知道它正在轉型。

And it's a mature product that's kind of working its way through the back end of a life cycle.

它是一種成熟的產品，在生命週期的後端發揮作用。

But I like where we stand in that and that our total percentage of cost of goods sold in that space relative to the size of the bundle that the customer buys is not huge.

但我喜歡我們在這方面的立場，而且我們在該領域銷售的商品成本相對於客戶購買的捆綁商品的總百分比並不大。

Our network portfolio is a fairly concentrated network portfolio.

我們的網絡組合是一個相當集中的網絡組合。

If you think about it, the bulk of our profitability comes from 3 primary networks.

如果您考慮一下，我們的大部分盈利能力來自 3 個主要網絡。

It's TNT, TBS and CNN.

是 TNT、TBS 和 CNN。

And I think if you look at trends, we all know that general entertainment content and the bundle is not performing as well.

而且我認為，如果你看一下趨勢，我們都知道一般娛樂內容和捆綁包表現不佳。

And the nice part about our 2 general entertainment networks, TNT and TBS, is they're really hybrids.

我們的兩個通用娛樂網絡 TNT 和 TBS 的好處在於它們確實是混合體。

They're a combination of general entertainment and sports.

它們是一般娛樂和運動的結合。

And so they historically perform at the upper end of desirability from a ratings perspective and attractiveness from an advertiser's perspective because of that mix of content that we have.

因此，由於我們擁有的內容組合，從評級角度來看，它們在歷史上表現得很好，從廣告商的角度來看，它們的吸引力也很高。

So one, having more contained portfolio; and two, having that mix of content, I think, is important to basically ride through this transition and have some resiliency.

因此，一個，擁有更多包含的投資組合；第二，我認為擁有這種內容組合對於基本渡過這一轉變並具有一定的彈性很重要。

And my view of what's been happening in most carriage agreement negotiations, as we go back out in the market and renew things, is our distributors see that and understand that those are important networks to carry forward.

我對大多數運輸協議談判中發生的事情的看法，當我們回到市場並更新事物時，我們的分銷商看到並理解這些是要發揚光大的重要網絡。

And we're continuing to see that people place value on those things even in a more skinnied down or a smaller pay TV universe moving forward and feel pretty good about that.

我們繼續看到，即使在更瘦小或更小的付費電視領域，人們也會重視這些東西，並對此感覺良好。

Now let's be clear.

現在讓我們說清楚。

The reason we're doing Max is we also know that new distribution platforms need to be out there that are the growth platforms and that match general entertainment content, how consumers want to see them.

我們做 Max 的原因是我們也知道需要有新的分發平台，這些平台是增長平台並且與一般娛樂內容相匹配，消費者希望如何看到它們。

And that pivot between what we're doing with linear networks and what we're doing with Max is a key part of the WarnerMedia strategy.

在我們對線性網絡所做的事情和我們對 Max 所做的事情之間的這種轉變是 WarnerMedia 戰略的關鍵部分。

It's an important dance and choreography that we have to do to get that right.

這是一個重要的舞蹈和編舞，我們必須這樣做才能做到這一點。

And we feel we're positioned very well and make that happen.

我們覺得我們的定位非常好，可以實現這一目標。

We spent a lot of time in the Investor Day explaining why we think it's a natural place to go.

我們在投資者日花了很多時間解釋為什麼我們認為這是一個自然而然的去處。

To keep the networks relevant, what you should expect us to do, we will continue to invest that -- in them.

為了保持網絡的相關性，你應該期望我們做什麼，我們將繼續投資——在他們身上。

We'll continue to make sure that they're viable for our distributors, but you'll see the content shifts start to occur a little bit.

我們將繼續確保它們對我們的分銷商來說是可行的，但您會看到內容開始發生一點點變化。

What we see with subscribers is that, obviously, they like news and sports.

我們從訂閱者身上看到的是，很明顯，他們喜歡新聞和體育。

They also like content that's socially relevant.

他們還喜歡與社會相關的內容。

And so probably a mix of starting to see a little bit more unscripted content come in, things that cause people to go into the office and talk about it around the watercooler.

因此，可能會開始看到更多未編寫腳本的內容，導致人們走進辦公室並在飲水機周圍談論它。

And that will probably start to supplant hours.

這可能會開始取代小時數。

It might have been more general entertainment-oriented content that you are going to see showing up on SVOD platforms like HBO Max moving forward.

您可能會在 HBO Max 等 SVOD 平台上看到更多面向娛樂的內容。

And we think that mix, in conjunction with what we're doing with Max, will allow us to ensure that the content we're producing in our great studios across our different brands will have a place to market that we can monetize with end users, either through distributors in the traditional fashion or through direct-to-consumer constructs, where maybe we have a direct relationship with the customer.

我們認為這種混合，結合我們與 Max 所做的事情，將使我們能夠確保我們在我們不同品牌的偉大工作室中製作的內容將有一個市場，我們可以通過最終用戶獲利，通過傳統方式的分銷商或通過直接面向消費者的結構，我們可能與客戶有直接關係。

On the subscriber pay TV low-value construct, look, we're mostly through that.

在訂戶付費電視低價值結構上，看，我們主要是通過它。

I would tell you, we've got a little bit more work to do on some promotional roll-offs in the first quarter that is going to continue to show up.

我會告訴你，我們在第一季度的一些促銷活動上還有更多工作要做，這些活動將繼續出現。

And when we shared -- as I shared earlier, what's going to happen on subscriber trends that I think will be more at the rate of decline by the time we exit this year, you should expect you're going to see continuing improvement in our subscriber trends each quarter as we move through.

當我們分享時——正如我之前分享的那樣，我認為到今年我們退出時訂閱者趨勢將會發生更多的下降，你應該期望你會看到我們的持續改進隨著我們的發展，每個季度的訂戶趨勢。

But I will tell you, you just can't flip a switch and get there overnight.

但我會告訴你，你不能只按一下開關就可以在一夜之間到達那裡。

And that's why I'm kind of suggesting you should think that we're on a glide path to get back to that ratable decline with subscriber base decline in the aggregate pay TV industry by the time we exit the year.

這就是為什麼我有點建議你應該認為我們正走在一條滑行道上，到今年年底時，隨著整個付費電視行業的訂戶基數下降，我們將回到那種可觀的下降趨勢。

We're going to see probably our heaviest losses in first quarter.

我們可能會在第一季度看到最嚴重的損失。

When I look at what's happening from an operational performance perspective and what the team is doing on gross add improvements, what we're seeing in churn improvements, the rollout of AT&T TV that really hits its stride in second quarter in terms of its availability across the customer base, we'll start to see those subscriber trends incrementally improve as those capabilities start to roll in to the base.

當我從運營績效的角度來看正在發生的事情以及團隊在總添加改進方面所做的工作時，我們在客戶流失方面看到的改進，AT＆T TV 的推出在第二季度的可用性方面真正取得了長足的進步客戶群，我們將開始看到這些訂閱者趨勢隨著這些功能開始進入基礎而逐漸改善。

And we'll get to what I just indicated by the time we exit the year.

我們將在今年結束時達到我剛才指出的目標。

Your next question comes from the line of Simon Flannery.

你的下一個問題來自 Simon Flannery。

Randall, we put out a lot of targets here for 2020 and beyond.

蘭德爾，我們在這里為 2020 年及以後製定了很多目標。

Perhaps, you could just share about how the executive incentives are being set up for the year, what the key KPIs and metrics are.

或許，您可以分享一下今年的高管激勵措施是如何制定的，關鍵的 KPI 和指標是什麼。

I know, last year, deleveraging was, I think, 25% of the short -- or 20% of the short-term comp.

我知道，去年，我認為去槓桿化是短期的 25%——或短期補償的 20%。

So any color you could give around what the kind of 2 or 3 key focuses are for the year.

因此，您可以圍繞今年的 2 或 3 個重點關注點給出任何顏色。

And then one for John Stankey.

然後是約翰·斯坦基 (John Stankey)。

You talked about the investment in the network, the capacity there.

你談到了對網絡的投資，那裡的容量。

I think, in the past, you've talked about the opportunities in the wholesale market.

我想，在過去，你談到了批發市場的機會。

Perhaps, you could just give us an update on how things are going there and the opportunity perhaps to sign up some cable companies.

或許，您可以向我們介紹一下那裡的最新情況，以及與一些有線電視公司簽約的機會。

Simon, this is Randall.

西蒙，這是蘭德爾。

Yes, as you articulated, and for those who aren't familiar, coming into 2019, I told all of you that our #1 priority for 2019 was to reduce our debt and get our leverage ratios down to 2.5x debt to EBITDA.

是的，正如你所說，對於那些不熟悉的人，進入 2019 年，我告訴大家，我們 2019 年的第一要務是減少債務，並將我們的槓桿率降至債務與 EBITDA 的 2.5 倍。

And it was going to require strong cash flow generation, selling some noncore assets.

它需要強大的現金流生成，出售一些非核心資產。

All that was instrumental in getting there.

所有這些都有助於實現目標。

And to really drive it home and get the focus for the management team, as you said, we set that debt to EBITDA target as a significant amount of executive compensation, and mission accomplished.

正如你所說，為了真正把它帶回家並讓管理團隊關注，我們將債務設定為 EBITDA 目標作為大量的高管薪酬和任務完成。

I think the team executed at an amazing level in terms of identifying asset opportunities to dispose, getting those things driven through the process, negotiated, actually getting good prices for all of those assets and then driving just strong cash flows and some impressive working capital opportunities we're taking advantage of, and these working capital initiatives that are put in place are not one and done.

我認為團隊在確定要處置的資產機會、通過流程推動這些事情、談判、實際為所有這些資產獲得好價格然後推動強勁的現金流和一些令人印象深刻的營運資本機會方面執行了驚人的水平我們正在利用，並且這些已實施的營運資金計劃並非一蹴而就。

What we're most excited about are these are working capital initiatives that are repeatable.

我們最興奮的是這些是可重複的營運資金計劃。

And so I feel really good about our ability to generate in 2020, even with the HBO Max investment, another $28 billion of free cash flow.

因此，即使有 HBO Max 投資，我對我們在 2020 年產生另外 280 億美元自由現金流的能力感到非常滿意。

Coming into this year, the debt objective of 2.5x isn't what we're working towards.

進入今年，2.5 倍的債務目標並不是我們正在努力實現的目標。

What we're working towards is making sure we're continuing to generate the cash flow to execute the broader capital allocation strategy, meaning, more specifically, retiring the shares we issued for Time Warner.

我們正在努力確保我們繼續產生現金流以執行更廣泛的資本配置策略，更具體地說，是退役我們為時代華納發行的股票。

And as both John Stephens and I articulated in our opening comments, that is a focus.

正如 John Stephens 和我在開場評論中所闡明的那樣，這是一個重點。

And our objective is to retire at least 250 million additional shares this year.

我們的目標是今年至少退市 2.5 億股額外股票。

We'll get about 100 million of those knocked out in the first quarter.

我們將在第一季度淘汰大約 1 億人。

And there's at least 150 million more to be coming in the back part of the year that will generate nice EPS accretion as we move throughout the course of the year.

隨著我們在今年的整個過程中移動，今年下半年至少還有 1.5 億人將產生不錯的 EPS 增長。

And so all that said, the management team is going to be focused on hitting these earnings objectives that we've laid out for you and the cash flow targets.

因此，儘管如此，管理團隊將專注於實現我們為您制定的這些盈利目標和現金流量目標。

And that's what compensation will be really focused on.

這才是薪酬真正關注的重點。

And I think it's going to be effective in generating the cash we need to execute the share buyback programs and the overall capital allocation strategy.

而且我認為這將有效地產生我們執行股票回購計劃和整體資本配置策略所需的現金。

Simon, thanks for asking the question because I think it highlights a really important aspect of how we're going to grow wireless revenues next year because we already have that strength, as you indicated of the network performance and that perception.

西蒙，感謝你提出這個問題，因為我認為它突出了我們明年將如何增加無線收入的一個非常重要的方面，因為我們已經具備了這種實力，正如你對網絡性能和這種看法所指出的那樣。

As we do research out, the market is now starting to grow amongst the customer base.

隨著我們的研究，市場現在開始在客戶群中增長。

I think we have some plans to even fine-tune our brand positioning messages as we move into this year a little bit more.

我認為我們有一些計劃，甚至在我們進入今年時微調我們的品牌定位信息。

And we know that, as we move that perception, which is happening right now, we see momentum in subscriber growth.

而且我們知道，隨著我們改變現在正在發生的這種看法，我們看到了訂戶增長的勢頭。

And so we've got just pure subscriber economics that are going to help us there, made some shifts in distribution.

因此，我們只有純粹的訂戶經濟學可以幫助我們實現這一目標，並在分銷方面做出一些轉變。

We've got the tailwinds of FirstNet behind us, which is starting to help us dramatically.

我們已經得到了 FirstNet 的順風，它開始顯著地幫助我們。

And I think the coverage improvements that occur, as we get into the second phase of FirstNet, will allow us to move through that.

而且我認為，隨著我們進入 FirstNet 的第二階段，覆蓋範圍的改進將使我們能夠度過難關。

And then we talked about, just a few minutes ago, what we're doing on the upgrade cycles and the Max launch.

然後，就在幾分鐘前，我們談到了我們在升級週期和 Max 發布方面所做的工作。

There's a lot of good things moving our direction, what I would call, the core organic part of the wireless business to grow revenues.

有很多好事在推動我們的方向，我稱之為無線業務的核心有機部分，以增加收入。

And frankly, over the last several years, our wholesale business had been a bit of a headwind in our wireless business because we didn't have the flush capacity that we've now been able to turn up with these key investments over the last 1.5 years.

坦率地說，在過去的幾年裡，我們的批發業務對我們的無線業務來說有點不利，因為我們沒有在過去 1.5 年通過這些關鍵投資獲得的沖洗能力年。

We're now in a much different position than we've historically been and where we've had to be very guarded about our wholesale position largely because we needed capacity to support our retail base.

我們現在的處境與以往大不相同，我們必須非常謹慎地對待我們的批發地位，主要是因為我們需要能力來支持我們的零售基地。

And we're now, I think, in a position in the industry, when I look at what has to happen with people, either in a deal or no-deal situation in spectrum, and their spectrum holdings that we are probably more flushed than others in the industry.

我認為，我們現在在行業中處於一個位置，當我看到人們必鬚髮生什麼，無論是在頻譜交易還是無交易情況下，以及他們的頻譜持有量，我們可能比業內其他人。

And we can, in fact, play in a different way in the wholesale space.

事實上，我們可以在批發領域以不同的方式發揮作用。

We're not just focused on cable.

我們不僅僅專注於有線電視。

I think we want to do, as I've indicated previously, the right deal, a deal that's constructive for the industry in general.

正如我之前所指出的，我認為我們想要達成一項正確的交易，一項對整個行業都具有建設性的交易。

Certainly, if there was an opportunity to do something in that space, we might do it.

當然，如果有機會在那個領域做點什麼，我們可能會去做。

But there's a lot of other wholesale options out there that we expect to lean into and I expect we can step up to in the most accretive fashion possible.

但是還有很多其他的批發選擇，我們希望能夠涉足，我希望我們能夠以最具增值性的方式採取行動。

And what I would indicate to you that I think whether you believe a T-Mobile-Sprint deal occurs or doesn't occur, either way, there are going to need to be partners in the industry that need to round out networks and do some things differently.

我要向您指出的是，我認為無論您認為 T-Mobile-Sprint 交易發生還是不發生，無論哪種方式，都需要行業中的合作夥伴來完善網絡並做一些事情事情不同。

And we would also try to understand whether or not we have other partners in the industry or merging partners in the industry that we can help with on the wholesale side.

我們還將嘗試了解我們是否有行業中的其他合作夥伴或行業中的合併合作夥伴，我們可以在批發方面提供幫助。

So there are plenty of options for us to go and start pulling that wholesale lever and driving it up.

因此，我們有很多選擇可以開始拉動批發槓桿並將其推高。

But I think that'll be an incremental difference for us than what we've seen over the last couple years we've been managing that number down.

但我認為，與過去幾年我們一直在努力控制這個數字相比，這對我們來說將是一個漸進的差異。

Simon, to add to what John said, this is the first year that we've had stable reseller revenues throughout the year.

西蒙，補充一下約翰所說的，這是我們全年獲得穩定經銷商收入的第一年。

And in fact, sequentially, we grew reseller revenues and -- in year-over-year and the fourth quarter.

事實上，我們依次增加了轉銷商的收入——在同比和第四季度。

So what John is talking about, we are not only well positioned for, but it's starting in a small way right now, but with the opportunity to make it much bigger.

所以 John 所說的，我們不僅處於有利位置，而且現在正以小規模起步，但有機會讓它變得更大。

It's already occurring, and it's contributing to that service revenue growth that we've had, both in the quarter and the year.

它已經在發生，並且它正在為我們在本季度和本年度的服務收入增長做出貢獻。

Your next question comes from the line of David Barden.

你的下一個問題來自 David Barden。

Thanks for taking the questions.

感謝您提出問題。

I guess 2. First, John Stankey, your -- it sounds like you guys really have bought into this idea of a 5G smartphone super cycle.

我猜 2. 首先，John Stankey，你的 - 聽起來你們真的已經接受了 5G 智能手機超級週期的想法。

And I feel like that is not a consensus view.

我覺得這不是共識。

I know that there's a lot of debate about it internally here between our tech guys and our chipset guys and our phone guys.

我知道我們的技術人員、芯片組人員和電話人員之間在內部對此有很多爭論。

And so if you could kind of give us some perspective on where that conviction comes from that, that we're going to get enough of a boost in demand for products that I don't know that the consumers really understand it's a lot different than what they're already buying, that would be super helpful.

因此，如果你能給我們一些關於這種信念從何而來的觀點，那就是我們將對產品的需求產生足夠的推動，我不知道消費者真正理解它與他們已經在購買什麼，那將非常有幫助。

And then John Stephens, could you walk us through the science behind this kind of new embrace of the preferred securities?

然後是 John Stephens，您能否向我們介紹一下這種對優先證券的新擁抱背後的科學原理？

Because it seems a little odd to be buying back stock, but then at the same time, issuing preferred stock.

因為回購股票似乎有點奇怪，但同時發行優先股。

And debt has deductible interest and preferreds don't.

債務有可扣除的利息，而優先股則沒有。

And so I think that there's some confusion as to kind of what the net benefit to the equity holder is of kind of looking at preferreds in the capital stack.

因此，我認為對於股權持有人的淨收益是什麼，在某種程度上看資本堆棧中的優先股，存在一些混淆。

Dave, so I don't know that I would use the term super cycle.

戴夫，所以我不知道我會使用超級循環這個詞。

I don't look at the plan and say, "We're expecting a super cycle." But we are expecting an increase or step-up in what's occurring.

我不會看著計劃說，“我們期待一個超級週期。”但我們預計正在發生的事情會有所增加或升級。

And look, I think that the foundation of that assumption is based on we've done a couple of different air interface changes.

看，我認為該假設的基礎是基於我們已經完成了幾個不同的空中接口更改。

We did the UMTS air interface change.

我們對 UMTS 空中接口進行了更改。

We did the LTE air interface change.

我們做了 LTE 空中接口更改。

And I think there were similar discussions going on at that point in time.

我認為當時正在進行類似的討論。

Well, will somebody really need the increased LTE speed over UMTS?

那麼，有人真的需要比 UMTS 更高的 LTE 速度嗎？

It works perfectly fine.

它工作得很好。

And I would tell you, we do see this step-up occur because, naturally speaking, people have a tendency to sit around and run speed tests on their devices.

我會告訴你，我們確實看到了這種提升，因為自然而然地說，人們傾向於坐下來對他們的設備進行速度測試。

And when somebody next to them is getting better performance, it raises awareness amongst the subscriber base.

當他們旁邊的人獲得更好的性能時，它會提高訂閱者群的意識。

And I expect that there's going to be a certain number of folks who look at that and just say, because that device performs better, because these new devices have access to a much broader swatch of bands, it's going to perform better.

我希望會有一定數量的人看到它並說，因為該設備性能更好，因為這些新設備可以訪問更廣泛的頻段，所以它的性能會更好。

And we are going to see a degree of uptick simply because the subscriber base is going to notice that there's a degree of performance, et cetera, as a result of that.

我們將看到一定程度的上升，因為訂戶群會注意到有一定程度的表現，等等。

Secondly, as I said, we're going to be driving some of this ourselves.

其次，正如我所說，我們將自己推動其中的一些。

We're going to be out there with some pretty aggressive promotion on HBO Max, and we're going to be tying these to our better plans.

我們將在 HBO Max 上進行一些非常積極的促銷活動，我們將把這些與我們更好的計劃聯繫起來。

And when you look at what we're assuming in our business plan for the year, our increases in the number of customers moving into unlimited aren't crazy, silly, step-function changes.

當你看看我們在今年的商業計劃中所做的假設時，我們轉向無限的客戶數量的增加並不是瘋狂的、愚蠢的、階梯式的變化。

They're more of the trend and taking advantage of the fact that we are going to put more advertising dollars into the market to support Max and support 5G.

他們更多地順應潮流，利用我們將向市場投入更多廣告資金來支持 Max 和 5G 的事實。

And we'll get some nominal uptick in what those migrations into our higher-value unlimited plans are.

我們將在這些遷移到我們更高價值的無限計劃中的東西上獲得一些名義上的提升。

So we want to stimulate some of that.

所以我們想刺激其中的一些。

We're coming off of historic lows of upgrades.

我們正在擺脫升級的歷史低點。

And we think the market is set up to basically go through renewal cycle given how we're promoting.

我們認為，考慮到我們的推廣方式，市場基本上會經歷更新周期。

It's coming at the end of the year in the holiday season.

它會在年底的假期到來。

There's going to be better networks out there.

那裡會有更好的網絡。

We do expect there's going to be an uptick in the upgrade cycle.

我們確實預計升級週期會有所上升。

Super cycle, maybe a little bit too strong a word, but an uptick, yes.

超級週期，這個詞可能有點太過強烈了，但確實是一個上升趨勢。

David, I'd just like to add to what John said.

大衛，我想補充一下約翰的話。

We have had 3 years here of very low upgrade rates.

我們在這裡有 3 年的升級率非常低。

Just to some extent, people are going to need new phones.

在某種程度上，人們將需要新手機。

And so this is just also this aging of the phone base has been occurring over multiple years.

因此，這也是多年來電話基地老化的原因。

Secondly, this is the first time we're going to have a 5G network up and running and available before the devices are out, the next-generation networks are there.

其次，這是我們第一次在設備出來之前啟動並運行 5G 網絡，下一代網絡就在那裡。

And as John made very clear, the HBO Max and other products we have, they would really meld well.

正如 John 所說的那樣，HBO Max 和我們擁有的其他產品真的可以很好地融合在一起。

The convergence of all 3 of those things is going to be really attractive for us.

所有這三件事的融合對我們來說真的很有吸引力。

With regard to the science of a preferred, it's simply this.

關於首選的科學，就是這樣。

The market is open to it.

市場對它開放。

Investors want it.

投資者想要它。

They like this certainty.

他們喜歡這種確定性。

At today's rates, our preferred that's out there is actually trading below 5% yield, about a 4.7%, 4.8%.

按照今天的利率，我們看好的實際收益率低於 5%，約為 4.7%、4.8%。

I haven't seen it today, but a 4.8% yield.

今天沒看到，不過4.8%的收益率。

So that's lower cash cost than our common dividend, so that saves us money there.

所以這比我們的普通股息更低的現金成本，所以這為我們節省了錢。

Secondly, as you know, they don't share in the common profits of it.

其次，如你所知，他們不分享它的共同利潤。

Third, it's a diversification for us.

第三，這對我們來說是一種多元化。

And so it gives us an opportunity to go into a different investor base.

因此，它讓我們有機會進入不同的投資者群體。

So just like we had done over the last 10 years have really diversified our debt base.

所以就像我們在過去 10 年所做的那樣，真正使我們的債務基礎多樣化。

This gives us an opportunity to diversify our shareholder base.

這為我們提供了一個多元化股東基礎的機會。

And we believe that that's good for everybody and also allows us to bring in the volume or the quantum of common shares that are out there.

我們相信這對每個人都有好處，也讓我們能夠引入現有普通股的數量或數量。

Additionally, when you look at the preferred partnership interest that we've done and the preferred interest we've done there, that has a very efficient -- those dividend costs are much lower because they're very tax efficient.

此外，當您查看我們已經完成的優先合夥權益和我們在那裡完成的優先權益時，它的效率非常高——這些股息成本要低得多，因為它們非常節稅。

So those costs get well below 4%.

所以這些成本遠低於 4%。

And once again, they allow us to give recognition to assets that people may not have realized.

再一次，它們使我們能夠認可人們可能沒有意識到的資產。

For example, our tower receivables and over $6 billion worth of real option cash that we have a high likelihood of getting.

例如，我們很有可能獲得的塔式應收賬款和價值超過 60 億美元的實物期權現金。

I don't know that anybody was paying much attention to that.

我不知道是否有人對此非常關注。

Now it gives us the opportunity to put that spotlight that we really already achieved that value.

現在它讓我們有機會展示我們確實已經實現了那個價值。

So -- but the clear science of the preferred is: one, the dividend costs are lower than our common; second, they're stable, and our common is going to continue to grow; third, it gets us to another market segment, another investor base, which is helpful; and fourth, it allows us to reduce the reliance on the common share base that's out there.

所以——但優先股的明確科學是：第一，股息成本低於我們的普通股；第二，它們是穩定的，我們的共同點將繼續增長；第三，它讓我們進入另一個細分市場，另一個投資者基礎，這很有幫助；第四，它使我們能夠減少對現有普通股基礎的依賴。

For that perspective, we feel very good about it.

從這個角度來看，我們感覺很好。

Feel like it's a really -- it's a good move for all of our shareholders.

感覺這真的 - 這對我們所有股東來說都是一個很好的舉措。

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Rollins.

你的下一個問題來自 Michael Rollins。

If you fast-forward to the end of your financial plan in 2022, given the CapEx that you've articulated, can you frame what the network capabilities are going to look like for 5G mobile, fixed wireless broadband coverage and fiber to the home coverage?

如果您快進到 2022 年財務計劃結束時，考慮到您所闡明的資本支出，您能否構建 5G 移動、固定無線寬帶覆蓋和光纖到戶覆蓋的網絡功能？ ？

And then secondly, can you just unpack a little more of what you see driving the strength in industry wireless postpaid phone net add?

其次，你能不能再多解釋一下你看到的推動行業無線後付費電話網絡增長的力量？

And as you look at your own customer trend, are you seeing any meaningful differences in customers and markets that have 5G evolution versus those that haven't received it yet?

當您查看自己的客戶趨勢時，您是否發現已經進行 5G 演進的客戶和市場與尚未進行演進的客戶和市場存在任何有意義的差異？

Sure.

當然。

So Mike, let me see if I can hit a combination of things you laid out.

邁克，讓我看看我是否可以組合你列出的內容。

So first of all, I think one of the significant shifts you'll see in 2022 by the time we get to that point, and a lot of this is being driven by work on FirstNet is, I think, we'll be in a much better position on macro coverage and not only from a number of square miles, but I think you're going to see the improvement in core interior performance given how we densify things to support our FirstNet subscribers and the agencies we have there.

所以首先，我認為到 2022 年，當我們達到這一點時，你會看到一個重大轉變，其中很多是由 FirstNet 上的工作推動的，我認為，我們將處於在宏觀覆蓋方面的位置要好得多，不僅是從幾平方英里的範圍內，而且我認為你會看到核心內部性能的改善，因為我們如何緻密化以支持我們的 FirstNet 訂戶和我們在那裡的機構。

And as I said, this is really -- where last year was a year of us getting coverage -- macro coverage in place kind of getting the umbrella, the footprint turned up, this year is where we do a lot of the -- make the network better stuff.

正如我所說，這真的是 - 去年是我們獲得報導的一年 - 宏觀報導到位有點像得到保護傘，足跡出現了，今年我們做了很多 - 使網絡更好的東西。

So we've been doing all the site acquisition, all the fill-in.

所以我們一直在進行所有的站點獲取，所有的填充。

And we start turning up sites and just going to make the network better.

我們開始打開站點，只是為了讓網絡變得更好。

It's just going to make the network better.

它只會讓網絡變得更好。

It's just going to make the network better on the inside of a building, that's going to make the network better in terms of the square miles that are covered.

它只會讓建築物內部的網絡變得更好，這將使網絡在覆蓋的平方英里方面變得更好。

And when you add that to the great spectrum position that you're already seeing and the wonderful reviews of speed and performance that we're getting back on test to-date, that only makes things stronger.

當您將其添加到您已經看到的出色頻譜位置以及我們迄今為止重新測試的速度和性能的精彩評論時，這只會讓事情變得更強大。

Secondly, we are, as you know, infilling with millimeter wave, and we've already turned up over 30 markets with millimeter wave.

其次，正如你所知，我們正在用毫米波填充，我們已經用毫米波打開了 30 多個市場。

We're continuing to increase that footprint.

我們正在繼續增加足跡。

And we're going to be very opportunistic of where we can do that.

我們將在我們可以做到這一點的地方非常機會主義。

We're in a unique position, especially in the places where we offer wireline businesses that we can densify on a fiber infrastructure in a way that's really economic and is advantageous to our cost structure as we move forward.

我們處於獨特的位置，特別是在我們提供有線業務的地方，我們可以以一種真正經濟的方式在光纖基礎設施上緻密化，並且隨著我們的前進對我們的成本結構有利。

That millimeter wave fill-in is where you're going to get unique performance characteristics.

毫米波填充是您將獲得獨特性能特徵的地方。

It will be, obviously, probably more pronounced in the urban areas of large cities.

顯然，在大城市的市區可能更為明顯。

Our plan right now is we're not as optimistic as maybe some are on what I would call the fixed wireless replacement construct.

我們現在的計劃是，我們並不像某些人對我所說的固定無線替代結構那樣樂觀。

We obviously believe there'll be some part of the subscriber base that might decide that they don't need a fixed broadband connection.

我們顯然相信會有一部分訂戶可能決定他們不需要固定寬帶連接。

I think that's going to take a couple years to start to emerge when you get the density a little bit more robust, I think, as we see more mid-band spectrum coming in place to support the millimeter wave and make the performance a little bit more consistent.

我認為當密度變得更穩健一點時，這將需要幾年時間才能開始出現，我認為，因為我們看到更多的中頻帶頻譜正在到位以支持毫米波並提高性能更一致。

So I wouldn't tell you any of our financial plans and our business plans.

所以我不會告訴你我們的任何財務計劃和商業計劃。

We're out there expecting wonderful revenue increases from a push in the fixed wireless space.

我們期待著固定無線領域的推動能帶來驚人的收入增長。

On what we do in the fixed space, you should expect that we're going to continue to add to the wireless -- excuse me, the fiber footprint.

關於我們在固定空間所做的事情，您應該期望我們將繼續增加無線——對不起，光纖足跡。

Right now, as we've shared with you, our goal is to get a little better return out of what we've deployed because, between consumer and business, we have about 20 million locations we can be aggressively working penetration in.

現在，正如我們與您分享的那樣，我們的目標是從我們部署的產品中獲得更好的回報，因為在消費者和企業之間，我們有大約 2000 萬個地點可以積極開展滲透工作。

And we think that we need to ensure we've got the right business practices and marketing practices to get the return on that footprint that's there.

我們認為，我們需要確保我們擁有正確的商業實踐和營銷實踐，以獲得現有足蹟的回報。

And as soon as I get indications that the team is actually executing on that well and we have the right formula on it, we'll probably release the spigot on some additional build.

一旦我得到跡象表明團隊實際上正在執行那口井並且我們有正確的公式，我們可能會在一些額外的構建上釋放龍頭。

You should expect, just by natural growth of the population, you'll probably see somewhere between 350,000 to 0.5 million new fiber locations coming into the portfolio.

您應該預計，僅通過人口的自然增長，您可能會看到 350,000 到 50 萬個新光纖位置進入投資組合。

Right now, that is just kind of what I would call the natural growth rate that's going to happen.

現在，這就是我所說的將要發生的自然增長率。

If we step that up a little bit, it will be because we feel good about how we're executing on the embedded footprint we have in place.

如果我們稍微加強一點，那將是因為我們對如何在現有的嵌入式足跡上執行感到滿意。

And we know exactly where the next incremental place as we go and build.

我們確切地知道下一個增量的位置，因為我們去構建。

And I think it's entirely possible that this operating team could build another 1 million to 2 million a year if we felt like we had the operating momentum to do that.

而且我認為，如果我們覺得我們有運營動力來做到這一點，那麼這個運營團隊完全有可能每年再建造 100 萬到 200 萬。

On the postpaid trends, look, there's -- the difference between prepaid and postpaid is changing.

在後付費趨勢上，預付費和後付費之間的區別正在發生變化。

It's getting -- they're getting closer together.

它越來越 - 他們越來越近了。

We've been in a situation where we, frankly, as we shared with you, our prepaid base looks a lot more like a postpaid base in what may be the broader industry prepaid base looks like.

我們一直處於一種情況，坦率地說，正如我們與您分享的那樣，我們的預付費基礎看起來更像是後付費基礎，而更廣泛的行業預付費基礎看起來更像。

Once we get these folks on prepay.

一旦我們讓這些人獲得預付款。

Once we get them on smartphones, we start seeing churn characteristics with multiline accounts that are very similar to what we have in postpaid.

一旦我們在智能手機上使用它們，我們就會開始看到多線賬戶的流失特徵，這與我們在後付費中的特徵非常相似。

And so I think, as the economy has improved, as the differences between the 2 products have gotten a little less, as smartphones have worked their way into the prepaid base because of the cycle of maybe previous generation phones being available, we see customers now starting to opt into a postpaid construct.

所以我認為，隨著經濟的改善，這兩種產品之間的差異變得越來越小，由於智能手機已經進入預付費市場，因為可能是上一代手機的上市週期，我們現在看到客戶開始選擇後付費結構。

Does that reverse itself if we see some economic headwinds and maybe people become a little bit more careful about what they do?

如果我們看到一些經濟逆風並且人們可能對他們所做的事情變得更加謹慎，那麼這種情況會自行逆轉嗎？

That's possible.

這是可能的。

But the net of it is, when you look at whether a customer goes with our prepaid offer or a postpaid offer, we have a lot of similar characteristics between the 2. It's -- we can hit them in both places.

但總的來說，當您查看客戶是選擇我們的預付費優惠還是後付費優惠時，我們在兩者之間有很多相似的特徵。我們可以在這兩個地方打他們。

But we feel very comfortable that we can catch the transition if there's more of a move to postpaid, which is what I think is occurring, largely driven by economy and the way the networks are performing and the differences between the 2 products.

但我們感到非常欣慰的是，如果有更多的向後付費的轉變，我們可以抓住過渡，我認為這是正在發生的事情，主要是由經濟和網絡的表現方式以及兩種產品之間的差異驅動的。

That question comes from the line of Kannan Venkateshwar.

這個問題來自 Kannan Venkateshwar。

A couple, if I could.

一對，如果可以的話。

Firstly, I mean, when you think about the decline rates of video at DIRECTV, although it will moderate over the course of 2020 based on your guidance, if, at some point, DIRECTV becomes smaller than, say, Comcast and because of the video losses and those lines cross, is there any kind of an impact on your programming cost because of the most stable nation clauses and others that you get on account of your scale?

首先，我的意思是，當你考慮 DIRECTV 的視頻下降率時，儘管根據你的指導，它會在 2020 年期間有所緩和，但如果在某個時候，DIRECTV 變得比 Comcast 小，並且由於視頻損失和這些界限交叉，由於最穩定的國家條款和您根據規模獲得的其他條款，是否會對您的編程成本產生任何影響？

And how does that impact margins if it does?

如果確實如此，這將如何影響利潤率？

And secondly, when you think about the attach rates for broadband in video homes, could you give us a sense of what that is?

其次，當您考慮視頻家庭中的寬帶接入率時，您能告訴我們這是什麼嗎？

And within the base of homes that you've lost as a result of the promotional rolloffs last year, is it in line with the average?

在去年因促銷活動而流失的房屋基礎中，是否與平均水平一致？

Or is it higher or lower?

還是更高或更低？

That'll help us get a sense of where trends are.

這將幫助我們了解趨勢在哪裡。

So the short answer to your first question, Kannan, is no.

因此，對於您的第一個問題，Kannan，簡短的回答是否定的。

We -- first of all, as you're aware, we went through a fairly significant renegotiation cycle over the last 12 months, so those are all baked in, in the bag through the next 3 to 5 years, depending on the nature of particular content, and I don't see any exposure in any of those agreements.

我們——首先，如你所知，我們在過去 12 個月中經歷了一個相當重要的重新談判週期，所以這些都在未來 3 到 5 年內被烘焙，取決於性質特定內容，而且我沒有在任何這些協議中看到任何曝光。

It would suggest we're not going to continue to pay at the best part of the rate card given the size and the scale of our business as we move forward.

鑑於我們向前發展的業務規模和規模，這表明我們不會繼續支付價目表中最好的部分。

I think, frankly, what's more likely to happen in pay TV moving forward is what I talked about earlier, where I think there'll be some pruning and trimming of offers in the market.

我認為，坦率地說，未來付費電視更有可能發生的事情就是我之前談到的，我認為市場上的報價會有所減少。

As folks move forward to manage their cost of goods sold on programming costs, it'll be dropping or shifting away from les trafficked networks.

隨著人們開始管理他們在編程成本上銷售的商品成本，它將減少或遠離 les trafficed 網絡。

I think that's going to be a bigger driver of cost structure than renegotiation or anything around that.

我認為這將是成本結構的一個更大的驅動因素，而不是重新談判或任何相關的事情。

But we're pretty well baked in that regard.

但我們在這方面做得很好。

As you know, one of the things we're working through is we have a step-up in our content cost as a result of that significant renegotiation work we did last year.

如您所知，我們正在努力解決的事情之一是，由於我們去年所做的重大重新談判工作，我們的內容成本有所增加。

We're going to have to work through that in 2020.

我們將不得不在 2020 年解決這個問題。

And then in the subsequent years, '21, '22, you'll see us on, what I would call, more industry traditional step-ups year-over-year in programming costs.

然後在隨後的幾年中，'21，'22，你會看到我們，我稱之為，更多行業傳統的編程成本逐年上升。

But we're in the bag on those things, and I think we're in pretty good shape.

但我們在這些事情上包攬了一切，我認為我們的狀態非常好。

On the broadband attach rates, the attach rates in footprint where we offer broadband are extremely high, and they haven't changed.

在寬帶連接率方面，我們提供寬帶的足跡連接率非常高，而且沒有改變。

We would expect to see a modest step-up as we move away from satellite combined with broadband and get into our software product distributed over broadband.

隨著我們從衛星與寬帶相結合併進入通過寬帶分發的軟件產品，我們希望看到適度的提升。

Those sales rates, I think, will help us on gross, not necessarily a significant change in attach rates.

我認為，這些銷售率將對我們的毛利率有所幫助，但不一定會導致附加率發生重大變化。

When we are successful selling, we typically attach both.

當我們成功銷售時，我們通常會同時附加兩者。

The reality is, is we want more gross.

現實是，我們想要更多的東西。

We don't necessarily want to change the attach rate.

我們不一定要更改附加率。

We get more gross by the fact that, for example, in footprint, solid 10% of those subscribers have line of sight-related issues on satellite.

我們得到更多的事實是，例如，在足跡方面，這些用戶中有 10% 在衛星上存在與視線相關的問題。

They won't have that on the software-driven product.

他們不會在軟件驅動的產品上使用它。

That helps us on gross intake, and that's one of those things that help us -- helps us, as we move through this year, change those subscriber trends.

這有助於我們的總收入，這是幫助我們的事情之一 - 幫助我們在今年移動時改變這些訂戶趨勢。

Okay.

好的。

This is Randall.

這是蘭德爾。

First of all, I just want to thank everybody for joining us again this morning for the call and your interest in AT&T.

首先，我只想感謝大家今天早上再次加入我們的電話，感謝你們對 AT&T 的關注。

We're coming off of 2019 where we told you exactly what we're going to do.

我們即將結束 2019 年，在那裡我們確切地告訴了您我們將要做什麼。

And in terms of debt repayment, operational performance, et cetera, capital allocation, we checked every box.

在債務償還、經營業績等資本配置方面，我們檢查了每一個方框。

We've now given you our playbook for 2020 through 2022.

我們現在已經為您提供了 2020 年至 2022 年的劇本。

It's a playbook that we feel very confident that we can achieve.

這是一本我們非常有信心能夠實現的劇本。

We're now gaining momentum in our wireless business, which we feel very good about that.

我們現在的無線業務發展勢頭強勁，對此我們感覺非常好。

We have a capital allocation plan that we have a high degree of confidence we'll be able to execute over the next 3 years.

我們有一個資本配置計劃，我們非常有信心能夠在未來 3 年內執行該計劃。

And we have a media business that's performing at a very high level, even in an industry that's in transition.

我們的媒體業務表現非常出色，即使是在處於轉型期的行業中也是如此。

And with HBO Max coming and the investment we're making there, we're confident that it's just another growth vehicle for this business over the next 3 years.

隨著 HBO Max 的到來以及我們正在那裡進行的投資，我們相信它只是未來 3 年該業務的另一種增長工具。

So bottom line, we have a plan that we think stacks up very nicely.

所以最重要的是，我們有一個我們認為非常好的計劃。

We're confident in our ability to execute.

我們對我們的執行能力充滿信心。

We love the management team and looking forward to 2020.

我們熱愛管理團隊並期待 2020 年。

Again, thank you for joining us this morning.

再次感謝您今天早上加入我們。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference for today.

女士們，先生們，今天的會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T teleconferencing.

感謝您的參與和使用 AT&T 電話會議。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連接。