AT&T Inc (T) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the AT&T 4Q '20 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) And as a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的支持。歡迎參加 AT&T 20 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Amir Rozwadowski, Senior Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給主持人、財務和投資者關係高級副總裁阿米爾·羅茲瓦多夫斯基 (Amir Rozwadowski)。請繼續。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to our fourth quarter call. I'm Amir Rozwadowski, Head of Investor Relations for AT&T. Joining me on the call today are John Stankey, our CEO; and John Stephens, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝大家，早安。歡迎參加我們的第四季電話會議。我是 AT&T 投資人關係主管 Amir Rozwadowski。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有我們的執行長 John Stankey；以及我們的財務長約翰‧史蒂芬斯（John Stephens）。

Before we begin, I need to call your attention to our safe harbor statement, which says that some of our comments today may be forward-looking. As such, they're subject to risks and uncertainties. Results may differ materially, and additional information is available on the Investor Relations website. And as always, our earnings materials are on our website.

在我們開始之前，我需要提請大家注意我們的安全港聲明，其中說我們今天的一些評論可能是前瞻性的。因此，它們面臨風險和不確定性。結果可能存在重大差異，更多資訊請參閱投資者關係網站。像往常一樣，我們的收益材料都在我們的網站上。

I also want to remind you that we continue to be in the quiet period for the FCC Spectrum Auction 107. So unfortunately, we can't answer your questions about that today.

我還想提醒你，我們仍然處於 FCC 頻譜拍賣 107 的靜默期。因此很遺憾，我們今天無法回答您關於這個問題。

With that, I'll turn the call over to John Stankey. John?

說完這些，我將把電話轉給約翰·斯坦基。約翰？

Good morning, everyone. Happy New Year to all of you, and I hope this moment finds you all in good health.

大家早安。祝大家新年快樂，祝大家身體健康。

With that, let's go ahead and get started on Slide 3. There are a lot of words to describe 2020, most of which wouldn't be nice to say in public. But when I look at how we executed on our priorities in the midst of this pandemic, I keep coming back to one word, and that's resilient.

好了，讓我們開始投影片 3。但是，當我回顧我們在這場大流行中如何執行我們的優先事項時，我不斷想起一個詞，那就是堅韌。

We added 1.5 million postpaid phones during the year, our most net adds in a decade and our highest-value subscribers. We reduced churn, streamlined operations and have the nation's fastest wireless network.

我們全年新增了 150 萬支後付費手機，這是十年來新增用戶最多的一次，也是我們最高價值的用戶。我們減少了客戶流失，簡化了運營，並擁有全國最快的無線網路。

For the second year in a row, we added more than 1 million fiber subscribers as customers move to our higher-speed services. And perhaps most remarkable during this pandemic, we launched HBO Max. And about 7 months later, we had more than 41 million HBO Max and HBO domestic subscribers, 2 years ahead of the plan we shared with you in October of 2019.

隨著客戶轉向我們的更高速度服務，我們連續第二年增加了 100 多萬光纖用戶。或許在這次疫情期間最引人注目的是，我們推出了 HBO Max。大約 7 個月後，我們的 HBO Max 和 HBO 國內訂閱用戶數量超過 4,100 萬，比我們在 2019 年 10 月與您分享的計劃提前了 2 年。

Our resilient portfolio of subscription businesses continued to generate strong cash flows, more than $27 billion, to support our ability to invest in our growth areas and sustain the dividend. In fact, we finished the year with our total dividend payout ratio at a very comfortable level. And on debt management, we made material progress in 2020 by reducing debt maturities over the next 5 years by about 50% and lowering our weighted average interest rate on debt to about 4%.

我們富有彈性的訂閱業務組合繼續產生強勁的現金流，超過 270 億美元，以支持我們投資成長領域和維持股息的能力。事實上，我們今年年底的總股息支付率處於一個非常舒適的水平。在債務管理方面，我們在 2020 年取得了實質進展，將未來 5 年的債務到期時間減少了約 50%，並將債務的加權平均利率降低至約 4%。

We continue to transform the business to drive efficiencies. Our cost-cutting initiatives generated about $2 billion in savings in 2020, dollars we invested back into the business to drive subscriber growth and move our transformation initiatives forward.

我們持續轉變業務以提高效率。我們的成本削減措施在 2020 年節省了約 20 億美元，我們將這些資金重新投資到業務中，以推動用戶成長並推進我們的轉型計畫。

In mobility, we streamlined distribution, shifted some stores to third-party dealers and closed others. Total calls into our call centers are down by 30 million as we saw a dramatic shift to online transactions by our customer base. We retired more than 30 products in our portfolio and consolidated operations to capitalize on reduced complexity.

在行動領域，我們簡化了分銷流程，將一些商店轉移給第三方經銷商，並關閉了其他商店。由於我們發現客戶群大幅轉向線上交易，我們呼叫中心的總呼叫次數減少了 3,000 萬次。我們淘汰了產品組合中的 30 多種產品，並整合了營運以降低複雜性。

We took our first steps and reduced our real estate footprint by more than 9 million square feet with more work underway in our longer-term operating model. We also realigned and streamlined our WarnerMedia operations to better deliver on HBO Max and the future of how consumers want to view content.

我們邁出了第一步，將我們的房地產佔地面積減少了 900 多萬平方英尺，並且正在根據我們的長期營運模式進行更多工作。我們還重新調整並簡化了華納媒體的運營，以更好地實現 HBO Max 並滿足消費者未來觀看內容的方式。

Those are a few of our 2020 highlights. Let's talk about our 2021 priorities on Slide 4. We have 3 priorities this year. Number one is straightforward: grow our direct customer relationships. That begins with the vital connectivity services we provide and the strength of our network. We've had the overall fastest wireless network in the nation every quarter for the last 2 years according to Ookla and the fastest nationwide 5G network in the second half of 2020 after our nationwide 5G launch. It shows the strength of our low-band spectrum portfolio.

以上是我們 2020 年的一些亮點。讓我們在投影片 4 上討論我們的 2021 年優先事項。第一點很簡單：發展我們的直接客戶關係。這始於我們提供的重要連結服務和網路實力。根據 Ookla 的數據，過去兩年來，我們每個季度都擁有全國最快的無線網路；在全國範圍內推出 5G 後，我們在 2020 年下半年擁有全國最快的 5G 網路。它顯示了我們低頻段頻譜組合的實力。

Our fiber Net Promoter Scores continue to be materially better than cables and are helping drive strong subscriber trends and higher penetration rates. There is strong demand for the reliability and speeds our fiber product provides.

我們的光纖淨推薦值持續大幅優於有線電視，並有助於推動強勁的用戶趨勢和更高的普及率。人們對於我們的光纖產品所提供的可靠性和速度有著強烈的需求。

Beyond our core connectivity services, we're focused on our goal to establish relationships with most U.S. households, and HBO Max is the key here. Through our software-based entertainment platforms, we can learn more about our customers and create long-lasting emotional connections with our award-winning storytelling capabilities.

除了我們的核心連結服務之外，我們還專注於與大多數美國家庭建立關係的目標，而 HBO Max 是其中的關鍵。透過我們以軟體為基礎的娛樂平台，我們可以更了解我們的客戶，並利用我們屢獲殊榮的說故事能力建立持久的情感連結。

Our second priority is the same as last year, and that's continuing to transform our operations to be more effective and efficient. We're restructuring businesses, sunsetting legacy networks, reducing corporate staffing levels and overall benefit costs. As a result, we're positioned to enter the post-pandemic world as a more agile and efficient company.

我們的第二個重點與去年相同，那就是繼續轉變我們的營運方式，使其更加有效、更有效率。我們正在重組業務，關閉傳統網絡，減少公司員工數量和整體福利成本。因此，我們將以更敏捷、更有效率的公司身分進入後疫情時代。

Our third priority is about continuing to be deliberate and strategic with how we allocate capital. We plan to use free cash flow after dividends for the next couple of years to pay down debt. We remain focused on monetizing noncore assets and using those funds for debt reduction as well. We're committed to sustaining our dividend at current levels, and we'll give top priority to debt reduction at this time.

我們的第三個優先事項是繼續慎重並有策略地分配資本。我們計劃在未來幾年利用股息後的自由現金流來償還債務。我們仍專注於將非核心資產貨幣化，並利用這些資金來減債。我們致力於維持現有股息水平，同時將把減少債務作為當前首要任務。

In summary, I'm pleased with the progress we've made the last 2 quarters. Despite COVID-19 challenges, we're seeing growth where we want to see growth, and we're successfully redirecting our investments to support those areas. We have more work to do, but I'm confident we're on the right path.

總而言之，我對我們過去兩個季度的進展感到滿意。儘管面臨新冠肺炎疫情的挑戰，但我們在希望看到成長的領域仍看到了成長，並且成功地重新調整了投資以支持這些領域。我們還有許多工作要做，但我確信我們走在正確的道路上。

Before I hand it over to John, I want to acknowledge that I'm sensitive to the reality that there's much going on in and around the business. I know inside AT&T, we're working hard to reposition the company. So I can imagine you're working equally hard to keep up with us. To that end, I want to let you know we plan to host a virtual investor event in the second half of the quarter, where our leadership team will provide more insight into our business plans, and we'll have a lot of time for discussion and your questions. Look for more to come on that soon.

在將其交給約翰之前，我想承認我很清楚這個現實：在業務內部和周圍發生了很多事情。我知道，在 AT&T 內部，我們正在努力重新定位公司。因此我可以想像你們也同樣努力地跟上我們的步伐。為此，我想讓您知道，我們計劃在本季度下半段舉辦一場虛擬投資者活動，我們的領導團隊將在活動上更深入地介紹我們的業務計劃，並且我們將有大量時間進行討論和解答您的問題。敬請期待更多相關內容。

With that, I'll turn it over to John to discuss the more detailed results from the quarter. John?

接下來，我將把主題交給約翰來討論本季更詳細的結果。約翰？

Thanks, John, and good morning, everyone. Let me start on Slide 6 with a quick look at our fourth quarter subscriber metrics. Wireless subscriber growth was the best it's been in years. We had 1.2 million postpaid net adds, including 800,000 postpaid phones. Postpaid phone churn was the second lowest quarter on record, coming in at 0.76%.

謝謝，約翰，大家早安。讓我從第 6 張投影片開始，快速瀏覽我們的第四季訂閱者指標。無線用戶成長達到多年來的最佳水準。我們的後付費淨新增用戶數為 120 萬，其中包含 80 萬支後付費手機。後付費電話流失率是有史以來第二低的季度，為 0.76%。

Our fiber momentum also continues. We added more than 270,000 fiber subscribers in the quarter. HBO Max subscriber growth continues to outpace original estimates. We added nearly 7 million total subscribers for HBO Max and HBO in 2020 alone. The trend of premium video declines continues to improve. If you exclude the impact of Keep America Connected on third quarter net adds, our premium video net adds improved sequentially for the fifth quarter in a row.

我們的光纖發展勢頭仍在持續。本季我們增加了超過 27 萬名光纖用戶。HBO Max 的用戶成長速度持續超過最初的預期。光是 2020 年，HBO Max 和 HBO 就新增了近 700 萬訂閱用戶。優質影片下滑的趨勢持續改善。如果排除「保持美國互聯」計畫對第三季淨增量的影響，我們的優質視訊淨增量將連續第五個季度實現成長。

Let's now look at our consolidated and segment results, starting with our financial summary on Slide 7. Adjusted EPS for the quarter was $0.75. That included COVID impacts to revenues from lower television licensing and production, changes to the theatrical release slate and lower international roaming. Combined, COVID had an estimated $0.08 of EPS impact to fourth quarter, which we did include in our adjusted results.

現在讓我們看看我們的合併和分部業績，從幻燈片 7 上的財務摘要開始。其中包括新冠疫情對電視許可和製作收入造成的影響、戲院上映名單的變化以及國際漫遊減少。綜合來看，COVID 對第四季度每股收益的影響估計為 0.08 美元，我們確實將其納入了調整後的結果中。

We've made the decision to operate our broadband and legacy voice operations separate from our video business unit and have recast our Entertainment Group results accordingly. In conjunction with this change in operations, we have reassessed the book values of our video assets, including goodwill and other long-lived assets. As a result, we recorded a pretax noncash impairment of $15.5 billion.

我們決定將寬頻和傳統語音業務與視訊業務部門分開運營，並相應地調整了娛樂集團的業績。結合營運的變化，我們重新評估了視訊資產的帳面價值，包括商譽和其他長期資產。結果，我們記錄了 155 億美元的稅前非現金減損。

Additionally, we adjusted for an actuarial loss to our benefit plans and a write-off of production and other content inventory at WarnerMedia, stemming from the continued shutdown of theaters and film releases going on HBO Max. We'll provide more information in our SEC filings and on our website and in our annual report.

此外，由於影院持續關閉以及 HBO Max 上的電影上映，我們還調整了福利計劃的精算損失以及華納媒體的製作及其他內容庫存的註銷。我們將在提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件、我們的網站和年度報告中提供更多資訊。

Revenues were down from a year ago, with gains in mobility partially offsetting pressure from WarnerMedia and video, but revenues were up sequentially. Foreign exchange had a negative impact of about $200 million in revenue primarily in our Latin America segment.

收入較上年同期有所下降，行動業務的成長部分抵消了華納媒體和視訊業務的壓力，但收入環比增長。外匯對我們主要在拉丁美洲分部的收入造成了約 2 億美元的負面影響。

Cash flows for the quarter and the year underscore our resilient customer base and liquidity. Cash from operations came in at $10.1 billion for the quarter and $43.1 billion for the year. Free cash flow was $7.7 billion for the quarter and $27.5 billion for 2020.

本季和年度的現金流凸顯了我們堅韌的客戶基礎和流動性。本季經營現金流為 101 億美元，全年經營現金流為 431 億美元。本季自由現金流為 77 億美元，2020 年自由現金流為 275 億美元。

For the full year, our total dividend payout ratio was just under 55%. Gross capital investment was about $20 billion in 2020, and we continue to invest heavily in our growth areas even during a pandemic. In addition, we invested about $800 million in HBO Max in the fourth quarter and about $2.1 billion for the full year.

全年而言，我們的總股息支付率略低於 55%。2020 年的總資本投資約為 200 億美元，即使在疫情期間，我們仍繼續在成長領域投入大量資金。此外，我們在第四季度對 HBO Max 投資約 8 億美元，全年投資約 21 億美元。

Let's now look at our segment operating results, starting with our Communications segment on Slide 8. Our Communications business showed revenue growth this quarter, thanks to a strong performance in mobility. We told you we intended to give our best customers our best prices and offers, and you are seeing the benefits of that logic. Strong subscriber gains and people moving to unlimited plans help drive service revenue growth in the quarter, even with continuing pressure in international roaming. More than 60% of our postpaid phone base is on an unlimited plan.

現在讓我們來看看我們分部的經營業績，從幻燈片 8 上的通訊部門開始。我們告訴過您，我們打算為最好的客戶提供最優惠的價格和優惠，而您也看到了這種邏輯的好處。儘管國際漫遊壓力持續存在，但強勁的用戶成長和人們轉向無限流量套餐有助於推動本季服務收入的成長。我們超過 60% 的後付費電話用戶都使用無限流量方案。

Churn has been impressive. The last 2 quarters have been our lowest postpaid phone churn quarters on record. And for the full year, a remarkable 16 basis point improvement in postpaid phone churn. Our successful retention approach does require some upfront investment, but the lower churn levels and improved subscriber counts make this the right economic trade.

客戶流失率令人印象深刻。過去兩個季度是我們有史以來後付費電話流失率最低的季度。就全年而言，後付費電話流失率顯著改善了 16 個基點。我們成功的保留方法確實需要一些前期投資，但較低的流失率和增加的用戶數量使這成為正確的經濟交易。

As I mentioned, we have split the Entertainment Group into 2 reporting units, broadband and video, and a full reconciliation of the 2 units is in our support documents. But for comparative purposes, here are the trends in Entertainment Group the way you have been used to seeing them. We had our best AT&T Fiber fourth quarter net adds, even with more challenges associated with the pandemic. And penetration continues to grow. It's now at 34%. In our video unit, premium video losses were improved year-over-year, thanks to lower churn and our focus on high-value customers. We continue to drive ARPU growth in both video and IP broadband. In fact, premium video ARPU was up more than 5%.

正如我所提到的，我們已將娛樂集團拆分為兩個報告單位，即寬頻和視頻，並且我們的支援文件中包含了這兩個單位的完整對帳。但為了進行比較，以下是娛樂集團的趨勢，與您習慣看到的方式相同。儘管面臨疫情帶來的更多挑戰，但我們在第四季度實現了最好的 AT&T Fiber 淨增值。滲透率持續成長。目前該比例為 34%。在我們的視訊部門，由於客戶流失率較低且我們對高價值客戶的關注，優質影片的損失同比有所改善。我們繼續推動視訊和 IP 寬頻的 ARPU 成長。事實上，優質影片的 ARPU 成長了 5% 以上。

Our business wireline team continues to effectively manage the transition of the business and deliver solid results amidst the pandemic. Solid cost management is the key to delivering solid EBITDA all year long.

我們的業務有線團隊繼續有效地管理業務轉型，並在疫情期間取得了穩健的表現。穩健的成本管理是全年實現穩健 EBITDA 的關鍵。

Let's move to WarnerMedia and Latin America results, which are on Slide 9. WarnerMedia continues to be impacted by the pandemic as we've seen across that entire industry. We did see solid gains in subscription revenues, thanks to the rapid growth of HBO Max. We now have 41 million domestic HBO Max and HBO subscribers and about 61 million worldwide as we prepare for the international launch of HBO Max later this year. And we now have more than 10 million customers who combine 1 or more of our connectivity products with HBO Max or HBO.

讓我們轉到第 9 張幻燈片上的華納媒體和拉丁美洲的業績。由於 HBO Max 的快速成長，我們的訂閱收入確實實現了穩步增長。目前，我們國內 HBO Max 和 HBO 訂閱用戶達 4,100 萬，全球訂閱用戶達 6,100 萬左右，我們正為今年稍後在國際上推出 HBO Max 做準備。現在，我們有超過 1000 萬客戶將我們的一種或多種連接產品與 HBO Max 或 HBO 結合。

Advertising revenues also grew, driven by political advertising and CNN, which was #1 in all of cable viewership, not just news in the fourth quarter. Because of the pandemic, we introduced a unique 1-year plan in which Warner Bros. will continue to exhibit films theatrically worldwide while adding an exclusive 1-month access period on HBO Max, simultaneous with the film's domestic release. Our goal is to make the best of a very challenging situation for all involved. That includes filmmakers and talent, theater owners and most importantly, the moviegoing public.

廣告收入也有所增長，這得益於政治廣告和 CNN，CNN 在第四季度的有線電視收視率（而不僅僅是新聞）中位居第一。由於疫情，我們推出了一項獨特的 1 年計劃，其中華納兄弟。將繼續在全球影院上映電影，同時在電影國內上映的同時，在 HBO Max 上增加 1 個月的獨家訪問期。我們的目標是讓所有參與者在極具挑戰性的情況下做到最好。其中包括電影製作人和演員、戲院老闆，最重要的是電影觀眾。

Our Latin American operations continue to work to recover from the pandemic. We added more than 500,000 subscribers in Mexico and almost 50,000 subscribers in Vrio, helped in part by our over-the-top offering in Brazil. Latin America revenues continue to be challenged by FX, slow economies and COVID. Even with this, Mexico EBITDA improved year-over-year for the second quarter in a row, and Vrio continues to generate positive EBITDA and cash flow on a constant currency basis.

我們的拉丁美洲業務繼續努力從疫情中恢復。我們在墨西哥增加了 50 萬多位用戶，在 Vrio 增加了近 50,000 位用戶，這在一定程度上得益於我們在巴西提供的 OTT 服務。拉丁美洲的收入持續受到外匯、經濟放緩和新冠疫情的挑戰。即便如此，墨西哥的 EBITDA 仍連續第二個季度同比增長，並且 Vrio 在固定匯率基礎上繼續產生正的 EBITDA 和現金流。

Now let's go to Slide 11 for our 2021 guidance. Last year was a difficult year for us to forecast for obvious reasons. There remain uncertainties in 2021 with the rate and pace of recovery from the pandemic around the globe impacting media, travel and employment.

現在讓我們轉到第 11 張投影片來查看 2021 年的指導。由於眾所周知的原因，去年對我們來說是難以預測的一年。2021 年仍存在不確定性，全球疫情復甦的速度和步伐將影響媒體、旅遊和就業。

Against that backdrop, our current outlook for 2021 is as follows. We expect consolidated revenue growth of about 1% with wireless service revenue growth of 2% and a gradual improvement in WarnerMedia's top line. As noted previously, we plan to reinvest all our savings from our transformation efforts to support our customer count momentum in our growth businesses. Combined with ongoing declines in our premium video segment, this could lead to adjusted EBITDA declining slightly in 2021 versus this year.

基於此背景，我們對 2021 年的當前展望如下。我們預計綜合收入成長約 1%，無線服務收入成長 2%，華納媒體的營收將逐步改善。如前所述，我們計劃將轉型工作中的所有儲蓄重新投資，以支持我們成長業務中的客戶數量成長動能。再加上我們優質視訊部門的持續下滑，這可能會導致 2021 年的調整後 EBITDA 較今年略有下降。

Adjusted EPS is expected to be stable with 2020. We expect gross capital investment in the $21 billion range and net CapEx of about $18 billion. The primary difference between the 2 is from vendor financing initiatives we have in place and anticipated FirstNet reimbursements.

調整後的每股盈餘預計將與 2020 年持平。我們預計總資本投資在 210 億美元左右，淨資本支出約為 180 億美元。兩者之間的主要區別在於我們現有的供應商融資計劃和預期的 FirstNet 報銷。

Free cash flow has been resilient for us even during the pandemic, and we expect that resiliency to continue in 2021 with a $26 billion range target for free cash flow.

即使在疫情期間，我們的自由現金流也一直保持強勁，我們預計這種強勁勢頭將在 2021 年繼續保持，自由現金流目標範圍為 260 億美元。

We'll also continue to focus on bringing down debt. As John mentioned, we expect to use free cash flow dollars after dividends to pay down debt. We continue to look for opportunities to monetize assets and apply those proceeds to paying down debt, including Crunchyroll, which we expect to close later this year. We do plan to provide an update on our leverage outlook and longer-term debt ratio target once the auction quiet period ends.

我們也將繼續致力於減少債務。正如約翰所提到的，我們預計使用股息後的自由現金流來償還債務。我們將繼續尋找將資產貨幣化的機會，並將這些收益用於償還債務，包括 Crunchyroll，我們預計將在今年稍後完成償還。我們確實計劃在拍賣靜默期結束後更新我們的槓桿前景和長期債務比率目標。

As 2020 showed us, things can change quickly. However, we are encouraged by our ability to adapt to those changes while driving increased customer counts, generating strong cash flows, investing in areas of strategic focus, all while maintaining a disciplined approach to our capital allocation and shareholder return strategies. As John mentioned, we plan to have a virtual analyst event later in the quarter to talk about this more.

正如 2020 年向我們展示的那樣，事情可以迅速改變。然而，我們很高興看到我們能夠適應這些變化，同時推動客戶數量增加、產生強勁的現金流、投資於策略重點領域，同時保持對資本配置和股東回報策略的嚴謹態度。正如約翰所提到的，我們計劃在本季稍後舉辦一次虛擬分析師活動來進一步討論這個問題。

Amir, that's our presentation. We're now ready for Q&A.

阿米爾，這就是我們的演示。我們現在準備好進行問答了。

Operator, we're ready to take the first question.

接線員，我們準備好回答第一個問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Simon Flannery from Morgan Stanley.

（操作員指示）您的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的西蒙·弗蘭納裡 (Simon Flannery)。

Okay. So looking forward to the Analyst Day. Perhaps you could start with the macro environment. What are you assuming in terms of the backdrop is? Are you really assuming things continue to be much as they are? Or do you have a pickup in the second half on things like roaming and advertising? Any comments just about trends with what CIOs are seeing, et cetera, that underscores that?

好的。我非常期待分析師日。也許您可以從宏觀環境開始。就背景而言，您認為是什麼？你真的認為事情會繼續維持現狀嗎？或者你們在下半年在漫遊和廣告等方面是否有所回升？對於 CIO 所見的趨勢，您有何評論可以強調這一點？

And then within the CapEx budget, are there any material changes within your priorities there, for example, your fiber build-out? I know that's a big priority. Is there an opportunity to ramp that up or additional spend on 5G rollout? Any color there would be great.

然後在資本支出預算中，您的優先事項是否有任何重大變化，例如光纖建設？我知道這是一個重中之重。是否有機會加大投入或在 5G 部署上增加支出？任何顏色都很棒。

So Simon, this -- John, let me take that. On the macro side, the one thing we saw at the end of last year was the customers' willingness to pay. Our bad debts were really quite solid, quite positive trends, both on the consumer and the corporate side. So while we're not getting overly excited, it was a positive sense.

那麼西蒙，這個－－約翰，讓我來接受這個。從宏觀角度來看，我們在去年年底看到的一件事就是客戶的支付意願。我們的壞帳確實相當穩固，無論從消費者方面或企業方面來看，趨勢都相當積極。因此，雖然我們並沒有過度興奮，但這仍然是一種積極的感覺。

What we have built into our plans are, if you will, more of the kind of current environment for the next 6 months with some second half and really close to the fourth quarter pickup in pandemic relief activities. So we'll see more theatergoing probably in the fourth quarter than we did this year. We'll see some more travel, but in no way did we envision a hockey stick or any kind of dramatic increase. It's really much more of a general staying the course. There is some slight improvement but staying the course.

如果您願意的話，我們在計劃中考慮的更多是未來 6 個月的當前環境，其中包括下半年和接近第四季度的疫情救助活動回升。因此，我們可能會看到第四季的觀影人次比今年更多。我們將會看到更多的旅行，但我們絕不會想像曲棍球棒或任何形式的急劇增長。這其實更像是將軍堅持到底。有一些細微的進步但要堅持下去。

Secondly, with -- the one thing I'd add though is the cash collections have been strong and have been resilient, feel really good about that. So that gives us some comfort.

其次，我想補充的一點是，現金收集一直很強勁，而且很有彈性，對此感覺非常好。這給了我們一些安慰。

Secondly, with regard to the CapEx, I'd say it this way. As you look at the kind of the gross capital being put in the ground, it's up $1 billion. There will be some changes in what we spent last year, i.e., I continue to expect the -- a little bit lighter on the video satellite-type side of the business because of the success of AT&T TV and our focus on churn reduction as opposed to gross heads. So there'll be some more money there.

其次，關於資本支出，我會這麼說。從投入地面的總資本來看，它已達到 10 億美元。我們去年的支出將會發生一些變化，也就是說，我仍然預計——由於 AT&T 電視的成功，以及我們專注於減少客戶流失而不是增加總用戶數，我們在視頻衛星業務方面的支出將稍微減少一些。因此那裡會有更多的錢。

I think you'll see us -- we've continued to spend money on wireless, but we're well into and well completed with the FirstNet build. So we'll have some ability to manage there.

我想你會看到我們——我們一直在無線方面投入資金，但我們已經很好地完成了 FirstNet 的建設。因此我們將有能力在那裡進行管理。

The next piece though is we will see an increase in the fiber build and the opportunity to add some more sales opportunities to that inventory. I don't know, John, did I miss anything from your perspective?

不過，接下來我們將看到纖維產量的增加以及為庫存增加更多銷售機會的機會。我不知道，約翰，從你的角度來看我是否遺漏了什麼？

Yes, I'll be more precise than John. We'll be building somewhere around 2 million fiber residential locations, in that neighborhood. That's kind of what we've got the team tasked to do to give you a sense of what that increase will be.

是的，我會比約翰更精確。我們將在該地區建造約 200 萬個光纖住宅點。這就是我們讓團隊做的事情，以便讓您了解成長幅度將會是多少。

And I think the only other thing I would comment on relative to the wireless spend overall, the shift that's occurring, we put a tremendous amount of capacity out over the last several years in combination with a lot of the work we spoke to you about with the FirstNet upgrades. And there's a kind of a shift in mix going on within the wireless building.

我認為我要評論的唯一另一件事是與整體無線支出相關的，即正在發生的轉變，我們在過去幾年中投入了大量的容量，並結合了我們與您談到的有關 FirstNet 升級的大量工作。無線建築內部正在發生某種組合轉變。

We're now moving away from what I would call capacity that's on existing spectrum bands and starting to see ourselves prepped for possibly using other spectrum that may come into service at some point in time, et cetera. So we got a little bit of a dynamic going on in the shift that's in the overall wireless program.

我們現在正在擺脫我所說的現有頻譜帶的容量，並開始為可能使用可能在某個時間點投入使用的其他頻譜等做好準備。因此，我們在整個無線計劃的轉變中看到了一些動態。

Thanks for your question, Simon.

謝謝你的提問，西蒙。

Okay. So would that suggest CapEx -- okay. Is CapEx second-half loaded then?

好的。那麼這是否意味著資本支出——好的。那麼下半年資本支出是否足夠？

We don't have anything that I would tell you is any different than what you've seen. We're actually -- we started doing engineering. If you're worried about fiber, Simon, we started doing engineering on the fiber build this year. I told you we were getting ready to go, and it was my intent to get going. And the teams are already out turning things up.

我不會告訴你任何與你所見不同的事。我們實際上——我們開始從事工程。西蒙，如果你擔心光纖，我們今年就開始進行光纖建造工程了。我告訴過你我們正準備出發，而且我打算就這樣出發。各團隊已經開始著手改變局面。

We had the conversation last quarter. I don't want to repeat myself, but we shared with you that this build is a little bit different than when we initially started because we have wire centers that are already fiber-capable. The infrastructure is in place. We're going back in and picking up the next adjacent neighborhood or the next successive area. And as a result of that, the speed to get up and moving is not the lift that it was the first time we started ramping up on this. So we've got a little bit smoother dynamic around it than what you might think because of the increase in the fiber dynamic.

我們上個季度進行了這次對話。我不想重複，但是我們與你們分享過，這次的建造與我們最初開始時有一點不同，因為我們的線路中心已經具備光纖功能。基礎設施已經到位。我們將返回並選擇下一個相鄰的街區或下一個連續的區域。因此，起步和移動的速度不如我們第一次開始加速時那麼快。因此，由於纖維動態的增加，我們得到的動態比你想像的要平滑一些。

Thanks very much for the questions, Simon.

非常感謝您的提問，西蒙。

Your next question comes from the line of John Hodulik from UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 John Hodulik。

Great. First, unrelated question. What's driving the 22% decline in the broadband segment? Are there additional costs associated with splitting it out from video? And sort of how do you expect that to progress through the year, especially with the increased fiber build you expect as we go on? And then secondly, any update on the timing of the AVOD launch? Or anything you can tell us on new content or reliance on sports and news.

偉大的。首先，不相關的問題。是什麼原因導致寬頻領域下滑22％？將其從影片中分離出來是否會產生額外費用？您預計今年的進展會如何，尤其是隨著光纖建設的不斷增加？其次，AVOD 發佈時間有更新嗎？或者您可以告訴我們有關新內容或對體育和新聞的依賴的任何資訊。

John, let me take the first one. With regard to the broadband piece, quite frankly, it's really the efforts we've had to increase our sales capabilities, add new customers, the amounts that we built out in the prior years. It also has to do with the recognition that we are providing HBO Max for all of our gig customers, and so there's an intercompany charge there. It's within the umbrella of AT&T, and the economics are there, so we feel good about it. But that's also in there.

約翰，讓我先問第一個。關於寬頻部分，坦白說，我們確實付出了努力來提高銷售能力，增加新客戶，增加前幾年累積的客戶數量。這也與我們為所有零工客戶提供 HBO Max 的認可有關，因此存在公司間收費。它屬於 AT&T 的旗下，而且有經濟優勢，所以我們對此感到滿意。但那也在那裡。

I would tell you, as you all know, the network infrastructure customer service like fiber is a long-term game, and we've gone through the process many times, feel very good about the long-term returns and the efforts. But yes, we're going to be spending some money as we did last year, to invest in that customer growth.

我想告訴你們，眾所周知，像光纖這樣的網路基礎設施客戶服務是一場長期博弈，我們已經經歷過多次這個過程，對長期回報和努力感到非常滿意。但是的，我們會像去年一樣花一些錢來投資客戶成長。

You saw the 600,000 plus, 650,000-or-so net adds last 6 months. And we feel very good about that particularly when we look at the churn numbers, particularly when we look at the customer satisfaction, the NPS scores so completely or complete support the fact. But yes, there is some investment there.

您會看到，過去 6 個月，淨增加人數超過 60 萬人，約 65 萬人。我們對此感到非常滿意，特別是當我們看到客戶流失數字時，特別是當我們看到客戶滿意度時，NPS 分數完全支持這一事實。但確實，那裡有一些投資。

With regard to the AVOD, we are expecting to launch our international version of the HBO Max later this year as well as the AVOD. I'm not ready to give any dates. John, I don't know if you want to say anything more specific.

關於 AVOD，我們預計將在今年稍後推出我們的國際版 HBO Max 以及 AVOD。我還沒準備好透露任何日期。約翰，我不知道您是否想說一些更具體的事情。

We're still shooting for a second quarter launch on AVOD. And I think I would point out equally as important is the Latin America launch of HBO Max that we've been working really hard on and will be an important driver for us on future growth and getting ourselves embedded into the international front on a unified platform and approach to things. So you should expect, as we get into the second quarter, there's going to be a lot of activity and change going on here.

我們仍在爭取在第二季推出 AVOD。我想指出的是，同樣重要的是，我們一直在為 HBO Max 在拉丁美洲的推出而努力，這將成為我們未來成長的重要驅動力，並使我們透過統一的平台和方式融入國際前沿。因此你應該預料到，當我們進入第二季時，這裡將會發生很多活動和變化。

One of the reasons we're kind of trying to pinpoint the exact date on it is, as you know, we've been working through pandemic-related production issues. And ramping that back up has been a pretty significant path. The team has done a remarkable job getting ourselves back into that business and working through the dynamics safely.

我們試圖確定具體日期的原因之一是，如你所知，我們一直在努力解決與疫情相關的生產問題。而重新提升這一水準是一條非常重要的道路。團隊做出了出色的工作，使我們重新回到該業務並安全地處理了各種動態。

It puts a little bit of overhead on things in terms of speed of production and what we're able to do. And there's a bit of rework that goes on with trying to work around the limitations of a pandemic-based environment. As a result of that, we're still fighting through getting the pipeline, dropping the content at the right rate and pace that we wanted to. And the first quarter this year continues to be a bit of a stretch in that regard as we cycle back into production.

這會對我們生產速度和我們能做的事情帶來一些開銷。為了突破疫情環境的限制，我們需要進行一些重複性工作。因此，我們仍在努力獲取管道，以我們想要的正確速率和速度投放內容。隨著我們重新進入生產階段，今年第一季在這方面仍然有點緊張。

Our expectations are that we start to hit our stride as we get into the second quarter, and it's really important as we put these new iterations of the product now that we have ourselves in a good position in terms of the content inventory. And so as we're kind of going hand-to-mouth on these right now, John, we'll be a little bit more discrete on when we announce what's coming out in exactly what month simply because it's just that tough and that much of a battle, literally show by show, to get this stuff done and get it into the funnel, and we're working hard to do that.

我們的預期是，進入第二季後，我們將開始步入正軌，而當我們推出這些產品的新版本時，這一點非常重要，因為我們在內容庫存方面已經處於有利地位。因此，約翰，由於我們現在正處於勉強維持生計的狀態，因此我們將更加謹慎地宣布將在哪個月推出什麼產品，因為這太困難了，而且需要經過大量的戰鬥，逐個節目地完成這些東西並將其放入渠道中，我們正在努力做到這一點。

And we hope we're past any of the unexpected dynamics, like the California closures that went on over the last several weeks that put a couple of twists and turns in the road, and we've got the worst behind us. But yes, I'm a little chased right now with everything on the pandemic. So I don't want to overpromise anything.

我們希望我們已經度過了任何意想不到的動態，例如過去幾週加州的封鎖給我們帶來了一些曲折，最糟糕的時期已經過去了。但是的，我現在對與疫情有關的一切有點憂心忡忡。所以我不想過度承諾任何事。

Your next question comes from the line of Phil Cusick from JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Phil Cusick。

So much to ask. So in wireless, John, you talked about growing customer relationships overall as a priority for the company. Should we assume that means the current level of promotion and upgrades, that effort continues?

有太多問題要問。約翰，在無線領域，您談到全面發展客戶關係是公司的首要任務。我們是否應該認為，這意味著當前的推廣和升級水平，以及這種努力是否會繼續下去？

And then second, to follow up for John Stephens. Just really quick. You mentioned an updated leverage target that you had talked about in an Analyst Day. I know you can't really talk about where leverage goes around an auction. But do you anticipate changing the target from the current 2.5 turns?

其次，跟進約翰史蒂芬斯 (John Stephens) 的情況。真的很快。您提到了在分析師日上討論過的更新後的槓桿目標。我知道你無法真正談論拍賣中的槓桿作用。但是您是否預計會從目前的 2.5 圈改變目標？

So Phil, the -- look, we're in a dynamic market. Things change all the time. We're going to look at our promotion strategies and adjust them accordingly and determine what we need to do to continue to be in a position to maintain and grow share. And it's -- I think it's really important that we continue to have a growing business.

所以菲爾，你看，我們處在一個充滿活力的市場。事情隨時都會改變。我們將研究我們的促銷策略並進行相應調整，並確定我們需要做什麼才能繼續保持和增加份額。我認為，我們的業務持續成長確實非常重要。

There's -- the management team is focused on 2 things. We like the momentum. I think we'd like to be a little bit more efficient with the momentum. We've done some really good stuff and had some really good progress on self-funding a lot of what we've been doing in the market. But we're not self-funding all of it yet.

管理團隊專注於兩件事。我們喜歡這種勢頭。我認為我們希望能夠更有效地利用這一勢頭。我們做了一些非常好的事情，並且在市場上所做的許多事情的自籌資金方面取得了非常好的進展。但我們目前還無法自行籌措全部資金。

And so our continued work on trying to manage the efficiency and effectiveness of this business so that we can be in a more aggressive posture in the market is something that this team is working on every quarter. And we've tried to be diligent and reasonable in our guidance to you and make sure that we have high confidence in what we share.

因此，我們持續致力於管理這項業務的效率和效力，以便我們在市場上能夠處於更積極的姿態，這也是這個團隊每個季度都在努力的。我們盡力以勤奮和合理的方式為您提供指導，並確保我們對所分享的內容充滿信心。

But what I'm turning back to the management team is a task that I'd say is more aggressive. And to the extent that this management team delivers, and they have been doing a remarkable job of doing that over the last several quarters, does that mean that, that's going to give us more room to do more in the market and continue to maintain a posture that I think is totally appropriate? Bringing in high-value customers, the right kind of customers we want. Going down the swim lanes that we set up for ourselves that we think we have a unique place to be, which is winning in the public sector with our FirstNet abilities, using our deep enterprise customer relationships to go deeper into the customer base with affinity programs, ensuring that we're getting the mass market with attractive offers like HBO Max and what's associated with that, that is -- it brought in a really attractive gross add pool and treating our embedded base well, that is the strategy. And we're going to continue to do that.

但我要交給管理團隊的是一項我認為更積極的任務。就這個管理團隊的表現而言，他們在過去幾個季度中一直做得非常出色，這是否意味著，這將給我們更多的空間在市場上做更多的事情，並繼續保持我認為完全合適的姿態？吸引高價值客戶，也就是我們想要的正確類型的客戶。沿著我們為自己設定的泳道前進，我們認為我們有一個獨特的位置，那就是利用我們的 FirstNet 能力在公共部門獲勝，利用我們深厚的企業客戶關係，透過親和力計劃深入客戶群，確保我們透過 HBO Max 等有吸引力的優惠獲得大眾市場，以及與此相關的是——它帶來了一個真正有吸引力的總添加池，並善待我們的基礎，這就是我們的嵌入式策略，並善待我們的基礎。我們將繼續這樣做。

I think you're seeing it, to be the industry leader in churn this quarter, I think we called it right. We said that we don't have customers that are upset about our network. They like it. We don't have customers that are upset about our service. They're satisfied with our service.

我想你已經看到了，作為本季度客戶流失行業的領導者，我認為我們做得對。我們說過，沒有客戶對我們的人脈感到不滿。他們喜歡它。我們沒有遇到對我們的服務感到不滿的客戶。他們對我們的服務很滿意。

We have customers who are interested in finding new devices. We shared with you that we had a little bit more aging population on device longevity than the rest of the industry. We've been targeting how we do that. I think getting the new 30-year lease on life -- the 30-month lease on life with these customers -- I wish it was 30 years, it's in a very appropriate exchange for the franchise right now given everything we have in front of us.

我們有一些客戶對尋找新設備感興趣。我們曾與大家分享過，我們的設備壽命比業內其他企業的老齡化人口略多。我們一直在研究如何做到這一點。我認為獲得新的 30 年租約——與這些客戶簽訂的 30 個月租約——我希望是 30 年，考慮到我們面臨的一切，這對於目前的特許經營權來說是一個非常合適的交換。

Phil, with regard to the update at the analyst conference. First and foremost, what we've said and will continue to say is free cash flow in excess of dividends is going to go to pay down debt. Proceeds from the sale of assets is going to pay down debt.

菲爾，關於分析師會議上的最新消息。首先，我們已經說過並將繼續說的是，超過股息的自由現金流將用於償還債務。出售資產的收益將用於償還債務。

The reality of it is we would prefer to be able to give you more information about a leverage target. We can't do that at this time because of the status of the C-band auction and our inability to comment on. That's all we're trying to tell you is that we understand that we would normally give that to you, that it would be appropriate. But because of the FCC rules, we can't. So we will commit that we will update it when it's past then. That's the story.

事實上，我們希望能夠為您提供有關槓桿目標的更多資訊。由於 C 波段拍賣的狀態以及我們無法發表評論，我們目前無法這樣做。我們只是想告訴您，我們知道我們通常會將這些提供給您，這是合適的。但由於聯邦通信委員會 (FCC) 的規定，我們不能這樣做。因此，我們承諾，當該時間過去後，我們將對其進行更新。這就是故事。

I think the one thing that I'd repeat, though, is $27.5 billion last year, $26 billion we're guiding for next year, $15 billion dividend, a lot of money to use to pay down debt. That's what -- the message we want to give you, and the proceeds from things like Crunchyroll going to use to pay down debt.

不過，我想重複的一件事是，去年的收入為 275 億美元，我們預計明年的收入為 260 億美元，股息為 150 億美元，這筆錢可以用來償還債務。這就是我們想要傳達給你們的訊息，Crunchyroll 等產品的收益將用於償還債務。

So we feel good about what we've done over the last 3 years with regard to managing the debt, and we feel really good about our ability going forward. But the comment about leverage is just -- it's appropriate for us to give it to you. We can't because of the rules around the C-band auction.

因此，我們對過去三年在債務管理方面所做的努力感到滿意，並且我們對我們未來的能力感到非常滿意。但關於槓桿的評論只是——我們把它給你是合適的。由於 C 波段拍賣規則的限制，我們不能這麼做。

Okay. So that's a maybe this year leverage target, not a permanent changing the 2.5 leverage target.

好的。因此，這可能是今年的槓桿率目標，而不是永久改變 2.5 的槓桿率目標。

I'd say we'll give you all that at the analyst conference when we can talk about it, quite frankly. I just got to be really careful. We'll go from there and move forward.

坦白說，我們會在分析師會議上向大家透露所有這些信息，屆時我們可以討論這些事情。我只是必須非常小心。我們將從那裡出發並繼續前進。

But our guidance on this, the real piece is cash flow in excess of dividends and proceeds from asset sales go to pay down debt. And if you look at our net debt at the end of the year, I think we've shown a -- we've got a good record to prove that we're doing what we said we're going to do.

但我們對此的指導是，真正的部分是超過股息和資產出售收益的現金流用於償還債務。如果你看看我們年底的淨債務，我想我們已經證明——我們有良好的記錄來證明我們正在做我們說過要做的事情。

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Rollins from Citi.

您的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的邁克爾·羅林斯。

Just want to follow up on the wireless business, just with a couple of questions. So with the guidance to grow service revenues at about 2%, can you frame the opportunity to improve ARPU for your wireless customers over the next 12 to 24 months? And then also with that target and given where the fourth quarter service revenue growth was, does that mean that AT&T may be exiting the fourth quarter of '21 with service revenue growth above that 2% for the whole year and relative to maybe where you're starting earlier in the year from?

我只是想跟進一下無線業務，只問幾個問題。那麼，在服務收入成長 2% 左右的指導下，您能否在未來 12 到 24 個月內抓住機會提高無線客戶的 ARPU 值？那麼，有了這個目標，考慮到第四季度服務收入的成長情況，這是否意味著 AT&T 在 21 年第四季結束時，全年服務收入成長率可能會超過 2%，相對於今年稍早的水平而言？

Michael, let me take a quick -- just to point out I think you're aware, but the first quarter of 2021, this quarter we're in now, last year, we still had international roaming. And so that compare is going to be compared to, if you will, 2.5 months of international roaming. So that will be one set.

邁克爾，讓我快速說一下——我想你知道，但在 2021 年第一季度，也就是我們現在的這個季度，去年，我們仍然有國際漫遊。因此，如果您願意的話，這個比較將與 2.5 個月的國際漫遊進行比較。因此這將是一組。

The next 3 quarters will presumably be without the international roaming. So the numbers will be different. That's one, and I'd just say that to you. So I don't want to get into quarterly analysis. Because I just don't want to confuse things, we talk about the full year.

接下來的三個季度大概不會有國際漫遊。所以數字會有所不同。這就是其中之一，我只想告訴你這一點。所以我不想參與季度分析。因為我不想把事情混淆，所以我們討論的是全年的情況。

Secondly, the real story on the service revenue is customer growth. And quite frankly, we talk about the 1.2 million of postpaid net adds, the 1.5 million of -- 1.2 million postpaid net adds last quarter, the 1.5 million of voice net adds mostly in the last 6 months, all of that.

其次，服務收入的真正故事是客戶成長。坦白說，我們談論的是上個季度的 120 萬後付費淨增用戶，150 萬——120 萬後付費淨增用戶，150 萬語音淨增用戶（其中大部分是在過去 6 個月內）等等。

But the reality is, too, we have close to 16 million total wireless connection net adds during the quarter -- during the year when you include all connections. And we're seeing -- and we believe that our strategies, the ones John just talked about with treating our best customers with the best offers and things like that have the opportunity to win for us the best network and so forth. And so we're optimistic about the ability to continue to grow that customer base. That's what's driving the service revenues.

但現實情況是，本季度，如果算上所有連接，我們的無線連接網路總計增加了近 1600 萬個。我們看到並且相信，我們的策略，也就是約翰剛才談到的為最佳客戶提供最佳優惠等策略，有機會為我們贏得最佳網絡等等。因此，我們對持續擴大客戶群的能力充滿信心。這就是推動服務收入的因素。

With regard to the ARPU growth, the continued opportunities go into the upscaling of these packages with a great opportunity to offer HBO Max, which has certainly got tailwinds behind it and the success of it. You saw the 7 million HBO adds, best we've had in not only 10 years, but the best in the total 10 years, better than the total last 10 years. That is going to -- we believe that, that kind of packaging with wireless is going to help and such that we're going to be able to grow it and then grow the ARPU from getting people to buy up not just from the mobile share plans into unlimited, but to buy up for the basic unlimited all the way up to the Elite.

就 ARPU 成長而言，持續的機會在於這些套餐的升級，其中一個很好的機會是提供 HBO Max，這無疑為 HBO Max 帶來了順風和成功。大家看到了 HBO 增加了 700 萬個節目，這不僅是我們 10 年來的最佳成績，也是整個 10 年來的最佳成績，比過去 10 年的總數還要好。我們相信，這種無線套餐將會有所幫助，這樣我們就能夠成長它，然後提高 ARPU，讓人們不僅從行動共享計劃購買到無限服務，而且從基本無限服務一直購買到精英服務。

That's the story. We're not giving specific percentages, dollars, but that's what builds that confidence in wireless service revenue growth, which really drives the overall growth of the company's 1% guidance on revenue growth, that and some tailwinds from the comeback of WarnerMedia.

這就是故事。我們沒有給出具體的百分比和金額，但這正是對無線服務收入成長的信心的基礎，這才真正推動了公司 1% 的營收成長預期的整體成長，以及華納媒體回歸帶來的一些推動力。

Your next question comes from the line of David Barden from Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 David Barden。

And John, I guess, this is going to be your last quarterly conference call. So we'll see you at the Analyst Day, but congrats on everything you've gotten done.

約翰，我想這將是你最後一次的季度電話會議了。我們將在分析師日見到您，並祝賀您完成的一切。

Thanks, David.

謝謝，大衛。

I just wanted to -- 2 questions. One is separating out the video business, taking the $15.5 billion write-down is going to fan the flames of the conversation around divesting that satellite business. Could you kind of, either John or John, could you elaborate a little bit on kind of what that might look like? And what in the $26 billion of free cash flow guidance is coming from the satellite video business today?

我只是想問兩個問題。一是剝離視訊業務，減記155億美元，將激起有關剝離衛星業務的討論。您，無論是約翰還是約翰，能否詳細說明一下那可能是什麼樣子的？那麼，如今 260 億美元的自由現金流預期中，有多少是來自衛星視訊業務的呢？

And then the second conversation, we've just finished the first month of the HBO Max experience with Wonder Woman commensurate with the theatrical release. And this is obviously going to happen like 11 more times over the course of 2021 as you kind of do the day, date thing with the movie slate. If we multiply what happened with Wonder Woman times 11 over the course of 2021, what does that look like for Warner Bros. from a revenue and profit standpoint relative to what maybe 2019 would have looked like in a more normal year?

然後是第二次對話，我們剛結束了《神力女超人》在 HBO Max 的第一個月體驗，與戲院上映的版本相稱。顯然，在 2021 年，這種情況還會發生 11 次，因為你會在電影名單上安排日期。如果我們將 2021 年《神力女超人》發生的事情乘以 11，那麼對華納兄弟來說，這會是什麼樣子呢？從收入和利潤的角度來看，相對於 2019 年更正常的年份？

So let me try to deal with the front end of that, David, and then John can give you a little bit of context on the cash flow. Obviously, what I'll say on that is we assume that we're running the business as we portrayed it to you. And we have been debating how we wanted to set up our operations for video for some time. And I think part of this, when we step back and think about why we made this change is we figure we're at a life cycle change in these products, that getting management teams focused in this way will be the best way to maximize value in the discrete product lines.

所以，戴維，讓我嘗試處理前端問題，然後約翰可以給你一些有關現金流的背景資訊。顯然，我要說的是，我們假設我們正在按照向您描述的方式經營業務。我們一直在討論如何建立我們的視訊營運。我認為，當我們退一步思考為什麼我們做出這樣的改變時，部分原因是我們認為我們正處於這些產品的生命週期變化中，讓管理團隊以這種方式集中精力將是實現離散產品線價值最大化的最佳方式。

And so in the video case, we've seen a pretty dramatic change in what's occurring in the market. And there's a variety of things driving it. You all know about the declines in the pay TV life cycle. But we also have the dynamic that's starting to occur, which I think is a really important one to understand where we're starting to see pay TV disconnect a little bit from broadband as virtual MVPDs start up. Our own product itself, in many respects, has a virtual characteristic to it, and it's a fairly mature offering.

在視訊案例中，我們看到市場發生了相當大的變化。有各種各樣的因素在推動這項進程。大家都知道付費電視的生命週期正在衰退。但我們也看到了開始出現的動態，我認為這是非常重要的，因為我們可以了解隨著虛擬 MVPD 的啟動，付費電視與寬頻開始出現一點脫節。我們自己的產品本身在許多方面都具有虛擬特性，而且是相當成熟的產品。

And so getting the management team really focused on what to do in the latter stages of the life cycle of a mature product and ensuring that we manage it effectively, I think, is a wise thing to do for that product on a stand-alone basis. And that's one driver behind why we made that decision.

因此，讓管理團隊真正專注於成熟產品生命週期後期要做的事情，並確保我們有效地進行管理，我認為，對於該產品而言，單獨而言是明智之舉。這就是我們做出該決定的驅動因素之一。

The second driver behind why we made this decision is I believe we're at the front end of a dynamic of customers wanting to ensure that they have connectivity and broadband access no matter where they go, and they want a simpler model around that. And I think about our business being in a very unique position for both businesses and consumers to deliver on that promise, and the innovation that's going to be necessary from a product perspective. And then pairing that with what are the new complementary products and services that customers might want to bundle or use with that connectivity I think is a new play, and that's a new growth for us.

我們做出這項決定的第二個驅動因素是，我相信我們處於客戶動態的前端，他們希望確保無論去哪裡都能擁有連接和寬頻接入，並且他們希望有一個更簡單的模型。我認為我們的業務對於企業和消費者來說都處於一個非常獨特的地位，可以兌現這一承諾，而且從產品角度來看，創新是必要的。然後將其與客戶可能想要捆綁或使用的新互補產品和服務配對，我認為這是一種新的玩法，對我們來說是一個新的成長點。

And to get another part of the management team really focused on that aspect of our business is how we simplify unified connectivity for our customer base, whether a consumer or a business, whether fixed or mobile, starting to think about what those virtual-type add-ons are to that product that come with a very different delivery mechanism than what we've historically seen when we've been bundling what I would call these high overhead, premise-intensive visit-type services that we've traditionally had in the bundle. And playing to that is the strength and position for growth is the second part of why we want the management team set up the way we have it right now and focused on that going forward.

而讓管理團隊的另一部分真正關注我們業務的這個方面，就是我們如何為客戶群簡化統一連接，無論是消費者還是企業，無論是固定還是移動，開始思考那些虛擬類型的附加產品是什麼，它們的交付機制與我們過去所看到的非常不同，當我們捆綁我所說的傳統上捆綁的高開銷、密集型場所的訪問型服務時。發揮這一點，就是我們的實力和成長優勢，也是我們希望管理團隊以現在的方式建立，並在未來專注於此的第二個原因。

And that just makes sense for how we're operating the business because of the time and place and where we are. And we are absolutely comfortable that that's the right call for how to operate our business moving forward. And I will tell you, I'm not going to speculate on anything structural or M&A-oriented. We never do, and I'm not going to now. But I believe that what we're doing here is if the goal is to always run an asset for maximum value creation, this is the right strategy to run the asset for maximum value creation. John?

這對我們經營業務的方式來說是合理的，因為我們所處的時間和地點。我們非常確信，這是未來我們業務營運的正確選擇。我會告訴你，我不會對任何結構性或併購導向的事情進行猜測。我們從來沒有這樣做過，現在我也不會這樣做。但我相信，我們在這裡所做的是，如果我們的目標始終是運行資產以創造最大價值，那麼這就是運行資產以創造最大價值的正確策略。約翰？

Yes. Both the asset of video and both the asset of broadband is so critical going forward. It just had...

是的。視訊資產和寬頻資產在未來都至關重要。它只是有...

Let me just quickly touch on the HBO Max and theatrical piece, if I could. So I think where we are is that there's a difference between a -- what I'll call a tentpole release and a nontentpole release. And Wonder Woman and the nature of that production value and what occurs in it is different than the balance of many of the other movies in our slate. We have other tentpole releases that occur throughout the 2021 release schedule. They are going to be equally as buzzworthy as Wonder Woman. And we have in between those other high-quality offerings that fill that in, that cater to maybe sometimes a less broad audience. And that's the power of doing what we did in bringing the entire slate out to our end user base.

如果可以的話，讓我快速談談 HBO Max 和戲劇作品。所以我認為，我們所處的階段是，我稱之為主打片和非主打片之間的差異。《神力女超人》的製作價值和其中發生的事情的性質與我們名單上的許多其他電影的平衡不同。我們還有其他主打作品將在 2021 年的發布計劃中發布。她們將會像神力女超人一樣受到關注。我們還提供其他高品質的產品來填補這一空白，有時可以滿足不那麼廣泛的受眾。這就是我們將整個產品推向最終用戶群的力量。

So we're going to see a little bit of spikiness in what occurs. And I don't think it's fair to say if we're going to put, call it, 17, 18, whatever, movies we ultimately settle on in the release structure for the year, we're not going to see the kind of subscriber spikes that maybe we saw in December and early January every time we put a movie out, but that really isn't the design and intent of the plan.

因此我們將會看到一些尖銳的事情發生。而且我認為，如果我們最終決定在今年的發行結構中加入 17 部、18 部電影，那麼我們不會看到像 12 月和 1 月初每次發行電影時那樣的訂閱用戶激增，這是不公平的，但這確實不是該計劃的設計和意圖。

We have -- but we do have an opportunity to build marketing and promotion opportunities around those bigger releases that have broader buzz and broader application across the customer base. And we're going to take every advantage of doing that, and we're going to work filling in the niche between it.

我們有——但我們確實有機會圍繞那些在客戶群中擁有更廣泛的關注和更廣泛應用的更大版本來建立行銷和推廣機會。我們將充分利用這一優勢，並努力填補其中的空白。

This -- I think I want to stress. This is a unique year, and we did this as a unique year. And probably appropriate to make a comment that in some cases, I'll say maybe the dynamic of the media and the press was a little oversold or a little intense on both ends of the spectrum around this from my point of view.

這一點——我想強調一下。這是獨特的一年，我們把這件事辦得獨一無二。也許在某些情況下，我想說的是，從我的角度來看，媒體和新聞界的動態可能有點誇大其詞，或者在兩端都有點激烈。

We told you when the team decided to make this move that we thought it was appropriate for this moment in time. And the team made the call, and I think it was a bold and aggressive swing. It was done with a lot of thought as to what needed to occur in the subscriber base and the balance of the value of the franchises between our theatrical and our streaming business.

當團隊決定採取這項措施時，我們就告訴過你，我們認為這個時刻這樣做是合適的。團隊做出了這個決定，我認為這是一個大膽而積極的轉變。我們經過深思熟慮，考慮了訂戶群需要發生什麼，以及影院業務和串流媒體業務之間的特許經營價值的平衡。

It was certainly nice to have a streaming business to present us this option of how we use this content. But part of that call was just built on the dynamic of what we thought the theatrical moviegoing audiences were going to look like in 2021. And since we articulated that, I would say the data points have come in that have been very consistent with the set of assumptions that we had at the front end of that.

串流媒體業務能夠為我們提供如何使用這些內容的選項，這確實是一件好事。但這項決定有一部分是基於我們對 2021 年戲院觀影觀眾狀況的預測。既然我們已經明確了這一點，我想說得到的數據點與我們在前端所做的一系列假設非常一致。

I mean just the last several weeks, you've seen other studios continuing to snowplow releases, moving them out of the first half of the year, moving them into the second half of the year, which further cements our point of view that we're going to see a very crowded theatrical field as we get into late 2021 and early 2022. And we don't believe that magically just because there's more content showing up in theaters all at the same time that, that's going to dramatically increase the size of the moviegoing population at that time.

我的意思是，就在過去幾週，你已經看到其他電影公司繼續推遲上映時間，將電影從上半年移到下半年，這進一步鞏固了我們的觀點，即到 2021 年末和 2022 年初，我們將看到一個非常擁擠的影院領域。我們不相信僅僅因為更多的電影內容同時出現在戲院，就能奇蹟般地大幅增加當時的觀影人數。

And so as we indicated by making the write-off, we felt like we had a little bit of a spoiling asset here that needed to be moved -- used more effectively. And this was the right economic call to balance this across both sides. And we think using it to balance out long-lived subscribers to build out a scaled platform that allow us to have options in our distribution and using this unfortunate set of circumstances around the pandemic for an opportunity, make lemonade out of lemons, was the right call in this case.

因此，正如我們透過註銷所表明的那樣，我們覺得我們在這裡有一些需要轉移的廢棄資產——需要更有效地利用。這是平衡雙方的正確經濟措施。我們認為，利用它來平衡長期訂閱用戶，建立一個規模化的平台，讓我們在分銷方面有更多選擇，並利用這場大流行帶來的不幸情況來創造機會，化腐朽為神奇，在這種情況下，這是正確的選擇。

And I think we all have to understand, we step back and think about the theatrical business. I mean nobody went to theaters in 2020 for the most part. It was a pandemic. Just like nobody got on airplanes, and nobody went to hotels, and nobody goes to restaurants. And all of those businesses had a little bit of dislocation because of that, and the theatrical business had a little bit of dislocation. And I applaud the team for the move they made and trying to make the best of this circumstance, for our circumstance around having a really strong theatrical slate that can help our streaming product.

我認為我們所有人都必須明白，我們退一步思考戲劇業務。我的意思是，2020 年基本上沒人去電影院。這是一種流行病。就像沒有人搭飛機、沒有人去旅館、沒有人去餐廳一樣。所有這些業務都因此出現了一些混亂，戲劇業務也出現了一些混亂。我讚揚團隊採取的舉措，試圖充分利用這種情況，因為我們擁有非常強大的戲院陣容，可以幫助我們的串流媒體產品。

Could we have maybe done some things a little bit differently in how we got through the front end of it? Any time you're first in something, there's no map. You're a trailblazer. There's nothing perfect for you to read. And I think that there's -- there were some things on the margin that maybe we'd do a little bit differently.

我們是否可以在如何解決前端問題上做一些稍微不同的事情？任何時候，當你第一次做某事時，都沒有地圖。你是一位開拓者。沒有什麼是完美的東西值得你去閱讀。而且我認為，對於某些邊緣事情，我們也許可以做得稍微不一樣。

But at the end of the day, it's going to get down to making sure people are fairly compensated and treated well. And I think we know how to do that. I think we've been good to the theater owners in the perspective that the exhibitors now have a planned and routine set of releases coming to them at a time when they really, as we've talked about, have other studios snowplowing.

但歸根究底，這還是要確保人們得到公平的補償和良好的待遇。我想我們知道如何做到這一點。我認為，我們對影院老闆來說是件好事，因為現在影院經營者已經有了​​一系列有計劃、有規律的上映影片，而正如我們所討論的，此時其他製片廠正在忙著處理影片上映事宜。

I think in the end, this will ultimately shape up to be a good thing across the board as we get through the emotional aspects that are bound to be there in a high anxiety environment like the pandemic. And all things having been said with what we've seen in the front end of the numbers, what our experience has been, we are delivering on this in a way that we expected. It's pretty consistent with the value shifts that we expected and feel pretty good about where we are in the early innings of this. So John, why don't you go ahead and...

我認為，最終這將變成一件好事，因為我們克服了疫情等高度焦慮的環境中必然存在的情緒問題。總而言之，根據我們在前端看到的數字和我們的經驗，我們正在以我們預期的方式實現這一目標。這與我們預期的價值轉變非常一致，並且對於我們目前所處的早期階段感到非常滿意。那麼約翰，你為什麼不繼續...

Yes. You can take a couple of things. One, I'd point out -- first and foremost from my perspective, 7 million net adds is pretty stout, and the strategy worked. And secondly, it's still early. We're 31 days out from Wonder Woman's release, I think. And so we'll continue to follow it.

是的。你可以帶幾件東西。首先我想指出的是，從我的角度來看，700 萬的淨增用戶數已經相當可觀了，而且這個策略是有效的。其次，現在還為時過早。我想，距離《神力女超人》上映還有 31 天。因此我們將繼續關注。

More importantly, for everybody on the call, I think at the Analyst Day, we'll get the team. Jason and his team will get the opportunity to talk to you about some of the further plans and go through that.

更重要的是，對於電話會議上的每個人來說，我認為在分析師日，我們都會得到團隊的支持。傑森和他的團隊將有機會與您討論一些進一步的計劃並進行討論。

Dave, your other question, I think, was with regard to the planning process. The guidance we've given here today, but for the exclusion of any commentary on C-band, is what we have as assets in our portfolio as of January 1 and owning them for the full year other than Crunchyroll, other than the already held-for-sale termination of Crunchyroll.

戴夫，我認為你的另一個問題是關於規劃過程的。我們今天在此給出的指導（不包括對 C 波段的任何評論）是截至 1 月 1 日我們投資組合中擁有的資產，並且除了 Crunchyroll 之外，我們還將持有這些資產一整年，除了已經終止持有待售的 Crunchyroll。

And so yes, there is free cash flow in here from the video business. I won't give you a specific number on that, Dave. But you can assume based on the results of the business last year, it's probably going to be a lower number inclusive next year than it is this year for the changes in customer base and so forth. But it is a business as usual, what I would call kind of business planning approach.

是的，這裡有來自視訊業務的自由現金流。戴夫，我不會給你一個具體的數字。但你可以根據去年的業務結果推斷，由於客戶群的變化等原因，明年的數字可能會比今年低。但這仍是一種正常的業務，我稱之為一種商業規劃方法。

All that being said, feel really good about the free cash flow position. And particularly, as I mentioned in an earlier question, cash came in strong at the end of the year with regard to the fourth quarter, with regard to customer activity, both on the corporate business side as well as the consumer side. And you guys can see it in our bad debt, which are remarkably low.

綜上所述，我們對自由現金流狀況感到非常滿意。特別是，正如我在先前的問題中提到的，就第四季度而言，無論是企業業務方面還是消費者方面，就客戶活動而言，現金在年底表現強勁。大家可以從我們的壞帳率中看到這一點，我們的壞帳率非常低。

Team did a really great job of weeding out fraud and weeding out -- and focusing on the best customers, and it's showing up in our numbers. So I think -- hopefully, that answers your question, David. Thanks for the earlier comment about my retirement. It will be a change, but it will be interesting.

團隊在清除詐欺和剔除客戶方面做得非常出色——並且專注於最好的客戶，這在我們的數據中有所體現。所以我認為——希望這能回答你的問題，大衛。感謝您先前對我退休的評論。這將是一個改變，但會很有趣。

Good luck.

祝你好運。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from the line of Brett Feldman from Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的布雷特費爾德曼。

And if you don't mind, like to follow up on some of the fiber commentary. It's obviously encouraging to see that you're going to be picking up the pace of the build-out this year. But even after building out 2 million additional homes passed, that would still be a small subset of the number of customer locations in your total wireline footprint.

如果您不介意的話，請關註一些有關光纖的評論。看到你們今年將加快建設步伐，顯然是令人鼓舞的。但即使在新增了 200 萬戶家庭之後，這仍然只是整個有線覆蓋範圍內客戶地點數量的一小部分。

How do you think about what portion of that footprint, which I think has 60 million households in it, is potentially attractive in terms of being a great demo and having economics to reach them that generate a compelling return for you? In other words, for how long can you keep adding 2 million homes a year to your footprint?

我認為，這個覆蓋範圍涵蓋 6,000 萬個家庭，您認為其中哪一部分具有潛在吸引力，可以作為一個偉大的示範，並具有經濟效益，可以覆蓋這些家庭，從而為您帶來可觀的回報？換句話說，你能持續多久每年在你的足跡上增加200萬套房屋？

And am I even asking this question correctly because as you build out your 5G footprint, which is really a national 5G network using layers of spectrum across multiple bands, it would seem like wireless will increasingly be a viable technology for reaching households beyond your traditional footprint. How do you think about the fixed wireless opportunity? And maybe how do you just think about the ability to be a provider of high-speed residential broadband across the country?

我問這個問題是否正確，因為當你建立你的 5G 覆蓋範圍時，這實際上是一個使用跨多個頻段的頻譜層的全國性 5G 網絡，無線似乎將越來越成為一種可行的技術，可以覆蓋傳統覆蓋範圍以外的家庭。您如何看待固定無線機會？也許您只是認為有能力成為全國高速住宅寬頻供應商怎麼樣？

So Brett, the -- I'm going to sound like a broken record, but it's really important on these long-lived investments that we be pretty consistent internally, so that the management team can get to a consistent level of execution year-over-year. If I think about what has traditionally happened in outside plant access technology upgrades, I've been through a series of them over my career. And I don't think this one is going to be a whole lot different.

所以布雷特，我聽起來像是在重複老話，但對於這些長期投資來說，在內部保持一致確實非常重要，這樣管理團隊才能逐年保持一致的執行水平。如果我思考一下外部工廠接入技術升級傳統上發生的情況，那麼在我的職業生涯中我已經經歷過一系列這樣的升級。我認為這次也不會有太大不同。

There's always the first 1/3 of the customer base that's kind of the low-hanging fruit, slam dunk, that is the part of the customer base that you cut your teeth on, get your processes squared away on, get the vendor community up the first part of the cost curve. And it's like the no-brainer economically, and you kind of make your decision that, that's where you're going to start. And I would say we went through that largely through that first 1/3 in the investment we've made over the last several years.

總有 1/3 的客戶群，那是唾手可得的果實，輕而易舉就能實現，這是客戶群中你可以磨練技能、理順流程、讓供應商社區登上成本曲線第一部分的部分。從經濟角度來說，這是無需思考的事情，只要做出決定，就可以從那裡開始。我想說，我們過去幾年所進行的投資的前 1/3 基本上已經實現了這個目標。

Then what happens is as you get your -- up the learning curve, and the vendors start to scale and you start to gain confidence in your economics and your business processes start to improve, and you start to see the marginal economics improve on the subscriber, which is what you're going to start to see happen on some of those broadband numbers on the fiber base that we've broken out for you. As we move forward here over time, the next 1/3 becomes the opportunity. And we're into that -- the middle innings of the game, if you want. It's the next 30% to 60% of the customer base that we can work our way through, and you look at the economics around it, it makes sense.

然後，當你獲得學習曲線時，供應商開始擴大規模，你開始對你的經濟狀況有信心，你的業務流程開始改善，你開始看到用戶的邊際經濟狀況改善，這就是你將開始看到的我們為你列出的光纖基礎上的一些寬頻數字。隨著我們隨著時間的推移而不斷前進，接下來的 1/3 就成為了機會。如果你願意的話，我們現在討論的是比賽的中局。我們可以針對接下來的 30% 到 60% 的客戶群開展工作，從經濟角度來看，這是有意義的。

Then you get into that last 1/3, and it's always the hardest part. And I mean in many instances, you're still sitting with the last 1/3 that, in parts of the rural America, that still really don't have effective broadband options. And oftentimes, it's policy. Sometimes it's a technology breakthrough that gets that last 1/3.

然後你進入最後的 1/3，這總是最困難的部分。我的意思是，在許多情況下，美國農村地區的最後 1/3 仍然沒有有效的寬頻選擇。很多時候，這是政策。有時，技術突破可以實現最後的 1/3。

And I would tell you right now, if you wanted me to prognosticate, are you going to build fiber to that last 1/3? I don't think I'd want to prognosticate that, that's a place that we're likely to go in the near term, absent some kind of major subsidy construct that comes into place. I actually believe, candidly, even if there was subsidy put in, it would be a better use of taxpayer money to do something that was more hybrid-oriented than the technologies that are applied and not exclusively lean on fiber in that space.

我現在就告訴你，如果你想讓我預測，你會建造最後 1/3 的光纖嗎？我認為我不想預測這一點，除非出現某種重大補貼結構，否則我們很可能在短期內進入這種狀態。我實際上坦率地認為，即使投入了補貼，用納稅人的錢做一些比應用技術更混合導向的事情，而不是完全依賴該領域的光纖，將是更好的選擇。

But we're several innings out from that actually coming to pass, and we'll have time to work through it. Right now, we're working in the middle innings of the game, and the next 30% of the customer base is where our focus is at. And as I shared with you on the previous call, it's 2 million this year. If the team executes well, we can do more than 2 million and start to ramp that up.

但我們距離真正實現這一目標還有好幾局，我們將有時間解決這個問題。現在，我們正處於比賽的中期，接下來的 30％ 的客戶群是我們的重點。正如我在上次電話會議上和大家分享的那樣，今年的數字是 200 萬。如果團隊執行得好，我們可以做超過 200 萬，並開始增加。

And when we demonstrate to the investor base that we're getting the kind of returns that you all like, then you should cheer us on to do that and be very supportive of us moving down that path. And it's my intent to characterize that and show that to you.

當我們向投資者證明我們獲得了你們都喜歡的回報時，你們就應該為我們加油，並大力支持我們沿著這條道路前進。我的目的是描述這一點並向你們展示。

In terms of how I think about the wireless and fixed base, I've got maybe a little different view on this, and I'll maybe step back and think about it from a macro level. If you go back and you look at consumption that's occurred in customer bases, whether it be wireless-centric, data use or fixed-centric data use, they've all been growing. And they grow at a pretty consistent level.

就我對無線和固定基地台的看法而言，我可能有一點不同的看法，我可能會退一步從宏觀層面來思考這個問題。如果回顧一下客戶群中的消費，無論是無線中心的數據使用還是固定中心的數據使用，它們都在成長。而且它們的成長速度相當穩定。

And if you go and you talk to experts around consumer behavior over the next 10 years and you look at what's going on inside the household of -- for example, just one major trend of people moving away from what used to be broadcast or multicast streams efficiently delivered to unicast streams, discrete streams to one device. And you just look at what's happening in consumer behavior over that, there is a substantial amount of video traffic to be moved to unicast. It's going to drive up a massive amount of consumption.

如果你去和研究未來 10 年消費者行為的專家交談，你會發現家庭內部正在發生什麼——例如，一個主要的趨勢就是人們不再使用過去的廣播或多播流，而是使用單播流、將離散流傳送到一個設備。只要看一下消費者行為的變化，就會發現有大量的影片流量需要轉移到單播。這將會大幅增加消費。

And this ratio between mobile and fixed consumption has been about 10:1 for many years. This is not new. And I got to -- I believe that, that ratio, it may not be perfectly 10:1, but there's still going to be a pretty consistent gap between mobile and fixed consumption. In other words, there's still a lot of traffic to be moved, given consumer shifts and how they're using products and services.

而移動與固定消費之間的比例多年來一直維持在10：1左右。這並不是什麼新鮮事。我認為，這個比例可能不是完美的 10:1，但行動和固定消費之間仍然會存在相當一致的差距。換句話說，考慮到消費者的變化及其使用產品和服務的方式，仍有大量的流量需要轉移。

And so as I sit back and think about things, I think about hybrid access technologies as being important. But I don't know that the most ideal way to build a network is going to be to use fixed wireless to take on the bulk of what occurs in the 4 walls of a business or a home, given the consumer behavior trends we're going to see over the next 10 years. And I think still having a very dense and rich fiber infrastructure is going to be necessary to be an effective network provider over time.

因此，當我坐下來思考事情時，我認為混合接入技術很重要。但考慮到未來 10 年我們將看到的消費者行為趨勢，我不知道建立網路的最理想方式是否是使用固定無線來承擔企業或家庭四面牆內發生的大部分事情。我認為，隨著時間的推移，擁有非常密集和豐富的光纖基礎設施對於成為有效的網路供應商仍然是必要的。

Now it doesn't mean there won't be some segments of the population -- and my son, who lives on his own in an apartment in a metro urban area that might actually be an individual that could work on an all-wireless portion of his life in his 20s when he's independent and single and in a single-dwelling unit household. And maybe that's a little bit different surrogate arrangement that has a wireless tail on it or is a robust wireless LAN inside of a managed dwelling unit. But I still think reach and penetration of fiber is going to be important as we move forward.

現在，這並不意味著不會有一些人群——還有我的兒子，他獨自住在大都市地區的一套公寓裡，他可能在 20 多歲時，當他獨立、單身並住在單戶住宅中時，就可以在生活中使用全無線設備。或許這是一個略有不同的替代安排，它帶有無線尾部，或者是受管理的住宅單元內的強大的無線區域網路。但我仍然認為，隨著我們不斷前進，光纖的覆蓋和滲透將變得非常重要。

John, the only thing I'd add in your putting a fence around this issue, John made this comment earlier, it's really important. We have fiber to the neighborhood in many, many locations, and taking fiber-to-the-home is the second step. We haven't done that yet. So if you think about our VDSL, if you think about our new greenfield builds, if you think about the neighborhoods next to the VDSL or in respect to where we've got fiber the prem, those are the opportunities. And that VDSL footprint is 35 million. And when you add the fiber to it, it's greater than that. That will give you kind of a framework for something that we could efficiently do. Just what John said about building out the 2 million this year, that's where a lot of the focus is going to be.

約翰，我唯一想補充的是，你在這個問題上設置了圍欄，約翰之前發表了這個評論，這真的很重要。我們已經在很多地方鋪設了光纖到社區，而光纖到府是第二步。我們還沒有這麼做。所以，如果您考慮我們的 VDSL，如果您考慮我們的新綠地建設，如果您考慮 VDSL 旁邊的社區或考慮到我們有光纖的地方，這些都是機會。而 VDSL 覆蓋範圍達到 3500 萬。當你添加纖維時，它的功效會比這更大。這將為您提供我們可以有效完成某件事的框架。正如約翰所說的，今年要實現 200 萬的目標，這將是我們關注的重點。

So I think of that as the way to think about the opportunity for us. And yes, we have that ability. We need to continue the sales momentum. That's going to be really critically important to make it work. But in line with that, that's, I think, a focus of easy capability for us.

所以我認為這是我們思考機會的方式。是的，我們有這個能力。我們需要繼續保持銷售動能。這對於確保其順利發揮作用至關重要。但與此相符的是，我認為，這是我們簡單能力的重點。

Your next question comes from the line of Frank Louthan from Raymond James.

您的下一個問題來自雷蒙德詹姆斯 (Raymond James) 的弗蘭克盧森 (Frank Louthan)。

Great. Can you comment on any potential regulatory changes with Title II potentially coming back over the next 12 months? And can you give us a little bit more detail on -- as far as the fiber-to-the-home, you say you're doing another 2 million homes this year. To what extent can we expect that to continue at that sort of pace? Or is that just sort of a year-by-year kind of a decision?

偉大的。您能否評論一下未來 12 個月內 Title II 可能重新生效的任何潛在監管變化？您能否向我們詳細介紹光纖到府問題？我們可以預期這種情況會以這樣的速度持續到什麼程度？或者這只是逐年做出的決定？

So I said in the neighborhood of 2 million homes. I would tell you that, as I just said, Frank, I want to be able to demonstrate to you that, that 2 million pace is a no-brainer and a slam dunk and a great value driver for our business and a great subscriber count driver for our business. And I think this business can build more than 2 million a year in a very profitable fashion. But we're going to demonstrate to you we can do that, and then we'll come back to you and tell you about what that rate is.

所以我說這個社區有 200 萬戶家庭。我想告訴你，正如我剛才所說，弗蘭克，我希望能夠向你證明，200 萬的速度是輕而易舉的事，而且是我們業務的巨大價值驅動力，也是我們業務的巨大訂戶數量驅動力。我認為這項業務每年可以創造200多萬美元的收入，而且利潤非常豐厚。但我們會向您證明我們可以做到這一點，然後我們會告訴您這個比率是多少。

So if we execute well, when the management team execute well, do I expect that I'll be back talking to you about a '22 build that maybe leans in heavily to that? That's what I'd like to see the management team step up to and be able to work its way through. The -- where I think -- I'm sorry, the first part of your question?

因此，如果我們執行良好，當管理團隊執行良好時，我是否期望我會回來與您討論可能嚴重依賴這一點的'22構建？我希望看到管理團隊能夠採取相應措施並解決這一問題。我認為——抱歉，您問題的第一部分是什麼？

Title II.

第二標題。

Oh, Title II. How can I forget? Look, I think it's inevitable that we're now back into the wood-saw approach of a new administration. And a new belief that despite 4 years of not a single data point to suggest that we have a problem to solve, nobody blocking anybody, nobody throttling anybody, nobody bought -- doing anything inappropriate in terms of use of service and disclosing how they're offering services to customers, we're going to go through another regulatory bloodletting over this. I expect it to happen, and we're going to watch the cycle repeat itself.

哦，標題 II。我怎能忘記？看，我認為我們現在不可避免地會回到新政府的木鋸方法。儘管四年來沒有一個數據表明我們有一個需要解決的問題，沒有人阻止任何人，沒有人限制任何人，沒有人購買——在使用服務方面做任何不當的事情，也沒有披露他們如何向客戶提供服務，但新的信念是，我們將為此再經歷一次監管制裁。我預計它會發生，我們將看到這個循環重複發生。

And one would hope at some point that there's a recent discussion around a policy that gets us away from this web sign and allows everybody to kind of have a more consistent and stable approach. I don't know that, that's going to happen, but we're certainly going to try and push and discuss it.

人們希望，最近能夠就一項政策展開討論，讓我們擺脫這種網路標誌，讓每個人都能採取更加一致和穩定的做法。我不知道這是否會發生，但我們肯定會嘗試推動和討論它。

Where I think the third rail is on this issue is the dynamic around what happens to the freedom of people who invest in competitive markets to price their products and services appropriately. And if we stay away from that third rail, if the kind of latitude is in there to be able to price and do the right things in the market where competitive markets exist, then I think everything will probably, at the end of the day, be okay.

我認為，這問題的第三軌道在於，那些在競爭性市場中進行投資的人們如何能夠自由地為其產品和服務定價。如果我們遠離第三軌，如果我們有這樣的自由度，能夠在競爭激烈的市場中定價並做正確的事情，那麼我認為，最終一切都會好起來的。

But if for some reason, policy goes down a path where that isn't the case -- it hasn't in the past even when Title II is in place. We had the latitude to do what I felt like we needed to do. But if, for some reason, policy went further to try to solve a problem that doesn't exist, I have to step back and ask ourselves how we're allocating capital around that and evaluate where that comes out and ask if it's the right place for us to go for our shareholders based on that dynamic and that very important lever for us being taken away so -- or variable, I'd say, in the market, not lever.

但如果由於某種原因，政策走向了並非如此的軌道——即使在實施第二章時，過去的情況也不是如此。我們有自由去做我認為我們需要做的事。但如果由於某種原因，政策進一步試圖解決不存在的問題，我必須退一步問自己，我們如何分配資本，評估結果如何，並問自己，基於這種動態，這是否是我們對股東的正確選擇，而對我們來說非常重要的槓桿被帶走了——或者說，變量，我想說，在市場上，而不是槓桿中。

So that's how I think about it right now. I actually step back and -- from a policy perspective, ironically, think about what's happened over the course of the last year or 2 and the dynamics that are going on right now where the issue is looking at metering and monitoring speech and what's occurring for people to access the platforms, that -- there are more real and significant data points in how that's affecting society than anything to do with how Internet service providers are delivering bandwidth in the homes. But I'll leave it to smarter people to meet and figure that one out.

這就是我現在的想法。我實際上退一步思考——具有諷刺意味的是，從政策角度來看，思考過去一兩年發生的事情以及目前正在發生的動態，問題在於計量和監控言論，以及人們訪問平台時發生的情況——與互聯網服務提供商如何向家庭提供頻寬有關的任何事情相比，這對社會的影響有更多真實而重要的數據點。但我會讓更聰明的人去解決並解決這個問題。

Frank, I think, we're -- the industry is real proud of what's happening in the course of the pandemic and the way we've allowed people to continue to work from home. I'm sure many of you are taking this call from home. And the industries, the investments they've made under the prior regime is working.

弗蘭克，我認為，我們——這個行業對疫情期間發生的事情以及我們允許人們繼續在家工作的方式感到非常自豪。我確信你們中的很多人都是在家裡接到這個電話的。他們在前政權領導下對這些產業的投資正在發揮效果。

We're, as a company, more focused on broadband, not just to the availability because it's out there, but people is actually taking advantage of it for the home work situation, for others. And we're working on those aspects as well as following all the other aspects of a infrastructure bill, another stimulus bill, tax legislation. We're following all those things, right? So we'll continue to follow as closely as you can imagine. Maybe Amir, we've got time for one more question.

作為一家公司，我們更加關注寬頻，不僅是因為它的可用性，而且人們實際上利用它來滿足家庭工作等需求。我們正在努力處理這些方面，同時關注基礎設施法案、另一項刺激法案和稅收立法的所有其他方面。我們正在關注所有這些事情，對嗎？因此，我們將繼續盡可能密切地關注。也許阿米爾，我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Yes, we've got time for one last question, operator.

是的，接線生，我們還有時間回答最後一個問題。

Okay. That question comes from the line of Tim Horan from Oppenheimer.

好的。這個問題來自奧本海默公司的 Tim Horan。

John, I know you said the move to virtualization of content is kind of accelerating, and that seems to be happening with gaming, compute, even communications with Microsoft Teams and Zoom. How are you positioned to take advantage of that? Are you better positioned as a company that owns the pipes and some of the content? Or do you think it makes more sense to separate these assets? Or you're in a really unique seat. I mean how do you really take advantage of this accelerating move at this point?

約翰，我知道你說過內容虛擬化的趨勢正在加速，這似乎正在遊戲、計算，甚至與 Microsoft Teams 和 Zoom 的通訊中發生。您如何利用這項優勢？作為一家擁有管道和部分內容的公司，你們的定位是否更有利？或者您認為分離這些資金更有意義？或者你坐在一個非常獨特的座位。我的意思是，您現在如何真正利用這項加速舉措？

Tim, our biggest and single-most important bet in that regard is HBO Max. And I think about that broadly as, while today, we talk about it as an SVOD evolving to an AVOD offer. I've mentioned this before, I view it as a really important foundation for broader customer relationships. I mean this is the first big foray of maybe legacy AT&T thinking about having broader relationships with the customer base at a relatively low price point SKU that isn't exclusively dependent on infrastructure.

提姆，在這方面我們最大、最重要的賭注是 HBO Max。我對此進行了廣泛的思考，而今天我們談論的是 SVOD 向 AVOD 的演變。我之前提到過這一點，我認為它是建立更廣泛的客戶關係的重要基礎。我的意思是，這可能是傳統 AT&T 首次大規模嘗試，考慮以相對較低的價格點 SKU 與客戶群建立更廣泛的關係，而這種 SKU 並不完全依賴基礎設施。

And to the extent we are successful at having that relationship with most U.S. households, if we don't use that as an opportunity, as a springboard for us to start thinking about how we extend those customer relationships across other opportunities either to own and operate content or engagement with a customer or to use the platform as a means for others to distribute, we'd be losing a huge opportunity.

並且，就我們與大多數美國家庭建立關係的成功程度而言，如果我們不利用這個機會，作為跳板，開始思考如何將這些客戶關係擴展到其他機會，無論是擁有和運營內容或與客戶互動，還是使用該平台作為其他人分發的手段，我們就會失去一個巨大的機會。

And so I think, well, there's all kinds of things we want to do around the edge and making sure that we work with the right hyperscalers to virtualize and give our customers the opportunity to gain access into infrastructure so that they can run their compute environments and their application environments effectively. That's all important, and that's all meat-and-potato stuff we need to do on a network.

所以我認為，我們想在邊緣做各種各樣的事情，並確保我們與合適的超大規模供應商合作進行虛擬化，並讓我們的客戶有機會訪問基礎設施，以便他們能夠有效地運行他們的運算環境和應用程式環境。這些都很重要，這也是我們在網路上需要做的主要工作。

But I think about owning some degree of engagement with the customer, a relationship, a means to build with them, having them interact with your service so that you have insights as to who they are, what they like, what they do, what their proclivities are, being able to emotionally attach with them, having a software platform that allows you to build the next building block of a product that extends into engagement, that talks about dynamics of changing consumption in social and interactive, I think this is a really important dynamic for the health of our business. And I know it's longer term in nature. And I'm well aware of the folks who have maybe a tighter orientation to the financial return question. Why would you be pushing as hard as you are in this area? It's because I feel pretty strongly about that.

但我認為要與客戶建立一定程度的互動，建立一種關係，一種與他們建立聯繫的方式，讓他們與你的服務互動，這樣你就能洞察他們是誰、他們喜歡什麼、他們做什麼、他們的傾向是什麼，能夠在情感上與他們建立聯繫，擁有一個軟體平台，讓你能夠構建下一個產品的構建模組，延伸到社交方面，社交我知道這是一個長期的過程。我很清楚有些人可能對財務回報問題有更嚴格的定位。為什麼您要在這個領域如此努力地推進？這是因為我對此有非常強烈的感受。

And I think building large subscription bases of customers that pay us every month for something has been kind of the hallmark of this business. We have a really attractive dynamic in that in our overall revenues and profitability today. We need to evolve that into what the next step is, and this is just one of those steps in making that happen.

我認為建立龐大的客戶訂閱群並讓他們每月為某些產品付費已經成為這項業務的標誌。我們目前的整體收入和獲利能力呈現出真正有吸引力的態勢。我們需要將其發展為下一步，這只是實現這一目標的步驟之一。

Thanks very much, Tim. That's all the time for questions that we have. And with that, I want to turn it over to John Stankey for final comments.

非常感謝，提姆。我們的提問就到此為止。最後，我想將發言權交給約翰·斯坦基 (John Stankey) 來進行最後的評論。

I have one last order of business before I let you go, and Dave kind of hinted at it with his compliment to John. I do want to point out that it's with very mixed emotions that we recognize that this is, I believe, John's 40th and last earnings call that he'll be doing with all of us. And he's been a very valued and long-time coworker of mine.

在讓你離開之前我還有最後一件事要做，戴夫在對約翰的讚美中暗示了這一點。我確實想指出，我們懷著複雜的心情認識到，我相信這是約翰與我們大家一起召開的第 40 次也是最後一次財報電話會議。他是我非常重視的長期同事。

I think if you think about the fact that he sat in this role as CFO of this company for 9 years, that speaks volumes in and of itself about his character and abilities. That's a tremendous level of longevity for somebody who occupies a role as significant, as pressured and as dynamic as the one that he's had.

我認為，如果您想到他擔任該公司財務長長達 9 年這一事實，這本身就足以說明他的性格和能力。對於一個擔任如此重要、如此有壓力、如此充滿活力的角色的人來說，這樣的長壽是相當了不起的。

I've worked with John for 23 years of his career, which has been a long time, and it's been a pleasure all along the way. I could say a lot of things. Obviously, high integrity, high impact, high functioning and incredibly high regard as a person. We're going to miss him at AT&T. I know you're going to miss him in support of all of you, but we're delighted about what lies ahead for him and his family and Michele in his next chapter and as you would expect, the professionalism in navigating the handoff to what's going to be a very capable successor. I'm just delighted to have Pascal coming in, and look forward to all of you getting to know him. It's gone incredibly smoothly. It's been first rate. And I think as we join you a quarter from now and Pascal takes the reins, you'll see what a nice, smooth and even-keeled transition that's been when we reconvene.

我和約翰合作了 23 年，這已經是很長的時間了，一路上我很愉快。我可以說很多話。顯然，他是一個高度正直、影響力巨大、運作良好、並且受人尊敬的人。我們將會懷念他在 AT&T 的時光。我知道你們會想念他，支持你們所有人，但我們對他、他的家人和米歇爾接下來的篇章感到高興，正如你們所期望的，他在將權力移交給一位非常有能力的繼任者時表現出了專業精神。我很高興帕斯卡的加入，並期待大家認識他。一切都進行得異常順利。這是一流的。我認為，一個季度後當我們加入你們並帕斯卡接管時，當我們重新召集你們時，你們會看到這是一個多麼美好、順利和平穩的過渡。

So I hope you join me in giving best wishes to John in his next chapter, and thank him for everything you've done for us. Thank you, John.

所以我希望你們和我一起向約翰致以最美好的祝愿，讓他在接下來的人生篇章中繼續前進，並感謝他為我們所做的一切。謝謝你，約翰。

Thanks, John, and thanks for the kind words. Thanks to all the other members of the management team here who've been a family for me. Specifically thanks to my team, the finance team, just remarkable people across the board.

謝謝，約翰，謝謝你的善意。感謝這裡所有其他管理團隊的成員，他們就像我的家人一樣。特別感謝我的團隊、財務團隊以及所有優秀的人。

Pascal is going to do a great job, and you guys are going to be thrilled. We're upgrading. And I would tell you, I just want to wish everybody on the call good luck, God speed, stay safe. And remember, don't text and drive. Thank you all.

帕斯卡將會做得很好，你們也會很高興。我們正在升級。我想告訴你們，我只想祝福電話裡的每個人好運，上帝保佑，平安。請記住，不要邊開車邊發短信。謝謝大家。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference for today. Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T Teleconference. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與和使用 AT&T 電話會議。您現在可以斷開連線。