AT&T Inc (T) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by.

女士們，先生們，謝謝你們的支持。

Welcome to the AT&T 4Q '20 Earnings Call.

歡迎參加 AT&T 4Q '20 財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) And as a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

（操作員說明）作為提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Amir Rozwadowski, Senior Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations.

我現在想將會議轉交給您的主持人，財務和投資者關係高級副總裁 Amir Rozwadowski。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝大家，大家早上好。

Welcome to our fourth quarter call.

歡迎來到我們的第四季度電話會議。

I'm Amir Rozwadowski, Head of Investor Relations for AT&T.

我是 AT&T 投資者關係主管 Amir Rozwadowski。

Joining me on the call today are John Stankey, our CEO; and John Stephens, our Chief Financial Officer.

今天和我一起參加電話會議的是我們的首席執行官 John Stankey；和我們的首席財務官約翰斯蒂芬斯。

Before we begin, I need to call your attention to our safe harbor statement, which says that some of our comments today may be forward-looking.

在開始之前，我需要提請您注意我們的安全港聲明，其中說我們今天的一些評論可能是前瞻性的。

As such, they're subject to risks and uncertainties.

因此，它們面臨風險和不確定性。

Results may differ materially, and additional information is available on the Investor Relations website.

結果可能存在重大差異，投資者關係網站上提供了更多信息。

And as always, our earnings materials are on our website.

和往常一樣，我們的收益材料在我們的網站上。

I also want to remind you that we continue to be in the quiet period for the FCC Spectrum Auction 107.

我還想提醒您，我們繼續處於 FCC 頻譜拍賣 107 的安靜期。

So unfortunately, we can't answer your questions about that today.

所以很遺憾，我們今天無法回答您的問題。

With that, I'll turn the call over to John Stankey.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給 John Stankey。

John?

約翰？

Good morning, everyone.

大家，早安。

Happy New Year to all of you, and I hope this moment finds you all in good health.

祝大家新年快樂，我希望這一刻發現你們都身體健康。

With that, let's go ahead and get started on Slide 3. There are a lot of words to describe 2020, most of which wouldn't be nice to say in public.

有了這個，讓我們繼續開始幻燈片 3。有很多詞可以描述 2020 年，其中大部分都不好在公共場合說。

But when I look at how we executed on our priorities in the midst of this pandemic, I keep coming back to one word, and that's resilient.

但是，當我看到我們在這場大流行中如何執行我們的優先事項時，我不斷地回到一個詞，那就是有彈性。

We added 1.5 million postpaid phones during the year, our most net adds in a decade and our highest-value subscribers.

我們在這一年增加了 150 萬部後付費電話，這是我們十年來淨增加最多的，也是我們價值最高的訂戶。

We reduced churn, streamlined operations and have the nation's fastest wireless network.

我們減少了客戶流失、簡化了運營並擁有全國最快的無線網絡。

For the second year in a row, we added more than 1 million fiber subscribers as customers move to our higher-speed services.

隨著客戶轉向我們的高速服務，我們連續第二年增加了超過 100 萬光纖用戶。

And perhaps most remarkable during this pandemic, we launched HBO Max.

也許在這次大流行期間最引人注目的是，我們推出了 HBO Max。

And about 7 months later, we had more than 41 million HBO Max and HBO domestic subscribers, 2 years ahead of the plan we shared with you in October of 2019.

大約 7 個月後，我們擁有超過 4100 萬 HBO Max 和 HBO 國內用戶，比我們在 2019 年 10 月與您分享的計劃提前了 2 年。

Our resilient portfolio of subscription businesses continued to generate strong cash flows, more than $27 billion, to support our ability to invest in our growth areas and sustain the dividend.

我們有彈性的訂閱業務組合繼續產生超過 270 億美元的強勁現金流，以支持我們投資增長領域和維持股息的能力。

In fact, we finished the year with our total dividend payout ratio at a very comfortable level.

事實上，我們在這一年結束時的總股息支付率處於非常舒適的水平。

And on debt management, we made material progress in 2020 by reducing debt maturities over the next 5 years by about 50% and lowering our weighted average interest rate on debt to about 4%.

在債務管理方面，我們在 2020 年取得了實質性進展，將未來 5 年的債務期限降低了約 50%，並將債務加權平均利率降低至 4% 左右。

We continue to transform the business to drive efficiencies.

我們繼續轉變業務以提高效率。

Our cost-cutting initiatives generated about $2 billion in savings in 2020, dollars we invested back into the business to drive subscriber growth and move our transformation initiatives forward.

我們的成本削減計劃在 2020 年節省了約 20 億美元，我們投資回業務以推動用戶增長和推進我們的轉型計劃。

In mobility, we streamlined distribution, shifted some stores to third-party dealers and closed others.

在移動性方面，我們簡化了分銷，將一些商店轉移給第三方經銷商並關閉了其他商店。

Total calls into our call centers are down by 30 million as we saw a dramatic shift to online transactions by our customer base.

我們的呼叫中心的總呼叫量減少了 3000 萬次，因為我們看到我們的客戶群急劇轉向在線交易。

We retired more than 30 products in our portfolio and consolidated operations to capitalize on reduced complexity.

我們淘汰了我們產品組合中的 30 多種產品，並整合了運營以利用降低的複雜性。

We took our first steps and reduced our real estate footprint by more than 9 million square feet with more work underway in our longer-term operating model.

我們邁出了第一步，將我們的房地產足跡減少了超過 900 萬平方英尺，我們的長期運營模式正在進行更多工作。

We also realigned and streamlined our WarnerMedia operations to better deliver on HBO Max and the future of how consumers want to view content.

我們還重新調整和簡化了 WarnerMedia 的運營，以更好地提供 HBO Max 和未來消費者觀看內容的方式。

Those are a few of our 2020 highlights.

這些是我們 2020 年的一些亮點。

Let's talk about our 2021 priorities on Slide 4. We have 3 priorities this year.

讓我們在幻燈片 4 上談談我們 2021 年的優先事項。今年我們有 3 個優先事項。

Number one is straightforward: grow our direct customer relationships.

第一個很簡單：發展我們的直接客戶關係。

That begins with the vital connectivity services we provide and the strength of our network.

首先是我們提供的重要連接服務和我們網絡的實力。

We've had the overall fastest wireless network in the nation every quarter for the last 2 years according to Ookla and the fastest nationwide 5G network in the second half of 2020 after our nationwide 5G launch.

根據 Ookla 的數據，在過去 2 年中，我們每個季度都擁有全國最快的無線網絡，並且在我們推出全國 5G 後，我們在 2020 年下半年擁有全國最快的 5G 網絡。

It shows the strength of our low-band spectrum portfolio.

它顯示了我們低頻段頻譜組合的實力。

Our fiber Net Promoter Scores continue to be materially better than cables and are helping drive strong subscriber trends and higher penetration rates.

我們的光纖淨推薦值繼續顯著優於電纜，並有助於推動強勁的用戶趨勢和更高的滲透率。

There is strong demand for the reliability and speeds our fiber product provides.

對我們的光纖產品提供的可靠性和速度有著強烈的需求。

Beyond our core connectivity services, we're focused on our goal to establish relationships with most U.S. households, and HBO Max is the key here.

除了我們的核心連接服務之外，我們還專注於與大多數美國家庭建立關係的目標，而 HBO Max 是這裡的關鍵。

Through our software-based entertainment platforms, we can learn more about our customers and create long-lasting emotional connections with our award-winning storytelling capabilities.

通過我們基於軟件的娛樂平台，我們可以更多地了解我們的客戶，並利用我們屢獲殊榮的講故事能力建立持久的情感聯繫。

Our second priority is the same as last year, and that's continuing to transform our operations to be more effective and efficient.

我們的第二個優先事項與去年相同，這將繼續使我們的運營變得更加有效和高效。

We're restructuring businesses, sunsetting legacy networks, reducing corporate staffing levels and overall benefit costs.

我們正在重組業務，淘汰傳統網絡，降低企業人員配備水平和總體福利成本。

As a result, we're positioned to enter the post-pandemic world as a more agile and efficient company.

因此，我們的定位是作為一家更敏捷、更高效的公司進入大流行後的世界。

Our third priority is about continuing to be deliberate and strategic with how we allocate capital.

我們的第三個優先事項是繼續深思熟慮和戰略性地分配資金。

We plan to use free cash flow after dividends for the next couple of years to pay down debt.

我們計劃在未來幾年使用股息後的自由現金流來償還債務。

We remain focused on monetizing noncore assets and using those funds for debt reduction as well.

我們仍然專注於將非核心資產貨幣化，並將這些資金用於減債。

We're committed to sustaining our dividend at current levels, and we'll give top priority to debt reduction at this time.

我們致力於將我們的股息維持在當前水平，此時我們將優先考慮減少債務。

In summary, I'm pleased with the progress we've made the last 2 quarters.

總之，我對我們在過去兩個季度取得的進展感到滿意。

Despite COVID-19 challenges, we're seeing growth where we want to see growth, and we're successfully redirecting our investments to support those areas.

儘管面臨 COVID-19 挑戰，但我們看到了我們希望看到增長的增長，並且我們正在成功地重新調整我們的投資以支持這些領域。

We have more work to do, but I'm confident we're on the right path.

我們還有更多工作要做，但我相信我們正走在正確的道路上。

Before I hand it over to John, I want to acknowledge that I'm sensitive to the reality that there's much going on in and around the business.

在我把它交給約翰之前，我想承認我對這個現實很敏感，即企業內部和周圍發生了很多事情。

I know inside AT&T, we're working hard to reposition the company.

我知道在 AT&T 內部，我們正在努力重新定位公司。

So I can imagine you're working equally hard to keep up with us.

所以我可以想像你正在努力跟上我們的步伐。

To that end, I want to let you know we plan to host a virtual investor event in the second half of the quarter, where our leadership team will provide more insight into our business plans, and we'll have a lot of time for discussion and your questions.

為此，我想讓您知道，我們計劃在本季度的下半年舉辦一次虛擬投資者活動，我們的領導團隊將提供更多關於我們的業務計劃的見解，我們將有大量時間進行討論和你的問題。

Look for more to come on that soon.

尋找更多即將到來的。

With that, I'll turn it over to John to discuss the more detailed results from the quarter.

有了這個，我將把它交給約翰來討論本季度更詳細的結果。

John?

約翰？

Thanks, John, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，約翰，大家早上好。

Let me start on Slide 6 with a quick look at our fourth quarter subscriber metrics.

讓我從幻燈片 6 開始，快速瀏覽一下我們第四季度的訂戶指標。

Wireless subscriber growth was the best it's been in years.

無線用戶增長是多年來最好的。

We had 1.2 million postpaid net adds, including 800,000 postpaid phones.

我們有 120 萬後付費淨增加，包括 800,000 部後付費電話。

Postpaid phone churn was the second lowest quarter on record, coming in at 0.76%.

後付費電話流失率是有記錄以來第二低的季度，為 0.76%。

Our fiber momentum also continues.

我們的纖維勢頭也在繼續。

We added more than 270,000 fiber subscribers in the quarter.

我們在本季度增加了超過 270,000 名光纖用戶。

HBO Max subscriber growth continues to outpace original estimates.

HBO Max 訂戶增長繼續超過最初的估計。

We added nearly 7 million total subscribers for HBO Max and HBO in 2020 alone.

僅在 2020 年，我們就增加了近 700 萬 HBO Max 和 HBO 的訂閱用戶。

The trend of premium video declines continues to improve.

優質視頻下滑趨勢持續改善。

If you exclude the impact of Keep America Connected on third quarter net adds, our premium video net adds improved sequentially for the fifth quarter in a row.

如果排除 Keep America Connected 對第三季度淨增加量的影響，我們的優質視頻淨增加量連續第五個季度環比增長。

Let's now look at our consolidated and segment results, starting with our financial summary on Slide 7. Adjusted EPS for the quarter was $0.75.

現在讓我們看看我們的合併和細分結果，從幻燈片 7 上的財務摘要開始。本季度調整後的每股收益為 0.75 美元。

That included COVID impacts to revenues from lower television licensing and production, changes to the theatrical release slate and lower international roaming.

這包括 COVID 對電視許可和製作減少、影院上映計劃的變化以及國際漫遊減少對收入的影響。

Combined, COVID had an estimated $0.08 of EPS impact to fourth quarter, which we did include in our adjusted results.

加起來，COVID 對第四季度的每股收益影響估計為 0.08 美元，我們確實將其包含在調整後的結果中。

We've made the decision to operate our broadband and legacy voice operations separate from our video business unit and have recast our Entertainment Group results accordingly.

我們已決定將我們的寬帶和傳統語音業務與我們的視頻業務部門分開運營，並相應地重新調整了我們的娛樂集團業績。

In conjunction with this change in operations, we have reassessed the book values of our video assets, including goodwill and other long-lived assets.

結合這種運營變化，我們重新評估了視頻資產的賬面價值，包括商譽和其他長期資產。

As a result, we recorded a pretax noncash impairment of $15.5 billion.

因此，我們記錄了 155 億美元的稅前非現金減值。

Additionally, we adjusted for an actuarial loss to our benefit plans and a write-off of production and other content inventory at WarnerMedia, stemming from the continued shutdown of theaters and film releases going on HBO Max.

此外，我們還對福利計劃的精算損失以及華納媒體的製作和其他內容庫存進行了調整，原因是影院持續關閉和 HBO Max 上的電影發行。

We'll provide more information in our SEC filings and on our website and in our annual report.

我們將在我們的 SEC 文件、我們的網站和我們的年度報告中提供更多信息。

Revenues were down from a year ago, with gains in mobility partially offsetting pressure from WarnerMedia and video, but revenues were up sequentially.

收入與一年前相比有所下降，移動性的增長部分抵消了來自華納媒體和視頻的壓力，但收入環比增長。

Foreign exchange had a negative impact of about $200 million in revenue primarily in our Latin America segment.

外匯對我們拉丁美洲部門的收入產生了約 2 億美元的負面影響。

Cash flows for the quarter and the year underscore our resilient customer base and liquidity.

本季度和年度的現金流突顯了我們富有彈性的客戶群和流動性。

Cash from operations came in at $10.1 billion for the quarter and $43.1 billion for the year.

本季度運營現金為 101 億美元，全年為 431 億美元。

Free cash flow was $7.7 billion for the quarter and $27.5 billion for 2020.

本季度的自由現金流為 77 億美元，2020 年為 275 億美元。

For the full year, our total dividend payout ratio was just under 55%.

全年，我們的總派息率略低於 55%。

Gross capital investment was about $20 billion in 2020, and we continue to invest heavily in our growth areas even during a pandemic.

2020 年的總資本投資約為 200 億美元，即使在大流行期間，我們也會繼續在我們的增長領域進行大量投資。

In addition, we invested about $800 million in HBO Max in the fourth quarter and about $2.1 billion for the full year.

此外，我們在第四季度向 HBO Max 投資約 8 億美元，全年投資約 21 億美元。

Let's now look at our segment operating results, starting with our Communications segment on Slide 8. Our Communications business showed revenue growth this quarter, thanks to a strong performance in mobility.

現在讓我們看看我們的部門經營業績，從幻燈片 8 上的通信部門開始。由於移動業務的強勁表現，我們的通信業務在本季度實現了收入增長。

We told you we intended to give our best customers our best prices and offers, and you are seeing the benefits of that logic.

我們告訴過您，我們打算為最好的客戶提供最優惠的價格和優惠，您正在看到這種邏輯的好處。

Strong subscriber gains and people moving to unlimited plans help drive service revenue growth in the quarter, even with continuing pressure in international roaming.

強勁的用戶增長和人們轉向無限計劃有助於推動本季度的服務收入增長，即使國際漫遊面臨持續壓力。

More than 60% of our postpaid phone base is on an unlimited plan.

我們超過 60% 的後付費電話群採用無限制計劃。

Churn has been impressive.

流失令人印象深刻。

The last 2 quarters have been our lowest postpaid phone churn quarters on record.

過去兩個季度是我們有記錄以來最低的後付費電話流失季度。

And for the full year, a remarkable 16 basis point improvement in postpaid phone churn.

全年來看，後付費電話流失率顯著提高了 16 個基點。

Our successful retention approach does require some upfront investment, but the lower churn levels and improved subscriber counts make this the right economic trade.

我們成功的保留方法確實需要一些前期投資，但較低的客戶流失率和改進的訂戶數量使其成為正確的經濟交易。

As I mentioned, we have split the Entertainment Group into 2 reporting units, broadband and video, and a full reconciliation of the 2 units is in our support documents.

正如我所提到的，我們已將娛樂集團分為 2 個報告單位，寬帶和視頻，這兩個單位的完整協調在我們的支持文件中。

But for comparative purposes, here are the trends in Entertainment Group the way you have been used to seeing them.

但為了比較的目的，這裡是娛樂集團的趨勢，你已經習慣了看到它們。

We had our best AT&T Fiber fourth quarter net adds, even with more challenges associated with the pandemic.

即使面臨與大流行相關的更多挑戰，我們也有最好的 AT&T Fiber 第四季度淨增長。

And penetration continues to grow.

滲透率繼續增長。

It's now at 34%.

現在是34%。

In our video unit, premium video losses were improved year-over-year, thanks to lower churn and our focus on high-value customers.

在我們的視頻部門，由於較低的客戶流失和我們對高價值客戶的關注，優質視頻的損失同比有所改善。

We continue to drive ARPU growth in both video and IP broadband.

我們繼續推動視頻和 IP 寬帶的 ARPU 增長。

In fact, premium video ARPU was up more than 5%.

事實上，優質視頻 ARPU 增長了 5% 以上。

Our business wireline team continues to effectively manage the transition of the business and deliver solid results amidst the pandemic.

我們的業務有線團隊繼續有效地管理業務的過渡，並在大流行中取得可靠的成果。

Solid cost management is the key to delivering solid EBITDA all year long.

穩健的成本管理是全年提供穩健 EBITDA 的關鍵。

Let's move to WarnerMedia and Latin America results, which are on Slide 9. WarnerMedia continues to be impacted by the pandemic as we've seen across that entire industry.

讓我們來看一下幻燈片 9 上的華納媒體和拉丁美洲的結果。正如我們在整個行業中看到的那樣，華納媒體繼續受到大流行的影響。

We did see solid gains in subscription revenues, thanks to the rapid growth of HBO Max.

由於 HBO Max 的快速增長，我們確實看到了訂閱收入的穩健增長。

We now have 41 million domestic HBO Max and HBO subscribers and about 61 million worldwide as we prepare for the international launch of HBO Max later this year.

我們現在擁有 4100 萬國內 HBO Max 和 HBO 訂戶以及全球約 6100 萬訂戶，我們正在為今年晚些時候 HBO Max 的國際發布做準備。

And we now have more than 10 million customers who combine 1 or more of our connectivity products with HBO Max or HBO.

我們現在擁有超過 1000 萬客戶，他們將我們的一種或多種連接產品與 HBO Max 或 HBO 相結合。

Advertising revenues also grew, driven by political advertising and CNN, which was #1 in all of cable viewership, not just news in the fourth quarter.

在政治廣告和 CNN 的推動下，廣告收入也有所增長，CNN 在所有有線電視收視率中均排名第一，而不僅僅是第四季度的新聞。

Because of the pandemic, we introduced a unique 1-year plan in which Warner Bros.

由於大流行，我們推出了一個獨特的 1 年計劃，其中華納兄弟。

will continue to exhibit films theatrically worldwide while adding an exclusive 1-month access period on HBO Max, simultaneous with the film's domestic release.

將繼續在全球範圍內放映電影，同時在 HBO Max 上增加 1 個月的獨家訪問期，與電影的國內發行同步。

Our goal is to make the best of a very challenging situation for all involved.

我們的目標是為所有相關人員充分利用非常具有挑戰性的情況。

That includes filmmakers and talent, theater owners and most importantly, the moviegoing public.

這包括電影製作人和人才、劇院老闆，最重要的是，電影觀眾。

Our Latin American operations continue to work to recover from the pandemic.

我們的拉丁美洲業務繼續努力從大流行中恢復過來。

We added more than 500,000 subscribers in Mexico and almost 50,000 subscribers in Vrio, helped in part by our over-the-top offering in Brazil.

我們在墨西哥增加了超過 500,000 名訂閱者，在 Vrio 增加了近 50,000 名訂閱者，部分原因是我們在巴西提供的頂級服務。

Latin America revenues continue to be challenged by FX, slow economies and COVID.

拉丁美洲的收入繼續受到外匯、經濟放緩和 COVID 的挑戰。

Even with this, Mexico EBITDA improved year-over-year for the second quarter in a row, and Vrio continues to generate positive EBITDA and cash flow on a constant currency basis.

儘管如此，墨西哥的 EBITDA 連續第二季度同比有所改善，Vrio 繼續在固定貨幣基礎上產生正的 EBITDA 和現金流。

Now let's go to Slide 11 for our 2021 guidance.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 11，了解我們 2021 年的指導。

Last year was a difficult year for us to forecast for obvious reasons.

由於顯而易見的原因，去年對我們來說是難以預測的一年。

There remain uncertainties in 2021 with the rate and pace of recovery from the pandemic around the globe impacting media, travel and employment.

2021 年仍存在不確定性，全球從大流行中恢復的速度和速度影響到媒體、旅行和就業。

Against that backdrop, our current outlook for 2021 is as follows.

在此背景下，我們目前對 2021 年的展望如下。

We expect consolidated revenue growth of about 1% with wireless service revenue growth of 2% and a gradual improvement in WarnerMedia's top line.

我們預計綜合收入增長約 1%，無線服務收入增長 2%，WarnerMedia 的收入將逐步改善。

As noted previously, we plan to reinvest all our savings from our transformation efforts to support our customer count momentum in our growth businesses.

如前所述，我們計劃將我們從轉型工作中獲得的所有積蓄進行再投資，以支持我們在增長業務中的客戶數量增長勢頭。

Combined with ongoing declines in our premium video segment, this could lead to adjusted EBITDA declining slightly in 2021 versus this year.

再加上我們優質視頻業務的持續下滑，這可能導致 2021 年調整後的 EBITDA 與今年相比略有下降。

Adjusted EPS is expected to be stable with 2020.

調整後的每股收益預計將在 2020 年保持穩定。

We expect gross capital investment in the $21 billion range and net CapEx of about $18 billion.

我們預計總資本投資在 210 億美元左右，淨資本支出約為 180 億美元。

The primary difference between the 2 is from vendor financing initiatives we have in place and anticipated FirstNet reimbursements.

兩者之間的主要區別在於我們已經實施的供應商融資計劃和預期的 FirstNet 報銷。

Free cash flow has been resilient for us even during the pandemic, and we expect that resiliency to continue in 2021 with a $26 billion range target for free cash flow.

即使在大流行期間，自由現金流對我們來說也具有彈性，我們預計這種彈性將在 2021 年繼續保持，自由現金流的範圍目標為 260 億美元。

We'll also continue to focus on bringing down debt.

我們還將繼續專注於降低債務。

As John mentioned, we expect to use free cash flow dollars after dividends to pay down debt.

正如約翰所提到的，我們希望使用股息後的自由現金流來償還債務。

We continue to look for opportunities to monetize assets and apply those proceeds to paying down debt, including Crunchyroll, which we expect to close later this year.

我們繼續尋找將資產貨幣化的機會，並將這些收益用於償還債務，包括我們預計將在今年晚些時候關閉的 Crunchyroll。

We do plan to provide an update on our leverage outlook and longer-term debt ratio target once the auction quiet period ends.

我們確實計劃在拍賣靜默期結束後更新我們的槓桿前景和長期債務比率目標。

As 2020 showed us, things can change quickly.

正如 2020 年向我們展示的那樣，事情可能會迅速發生變化。

However, we are encouraged by our ability to adapt to those changes while driving increased customer counts, generating strong cash flows, investing in areas of strategic focus, all while maintaining a disciplined approach to our capital allocation and shareholder return strategies.

然而，我們有能力適應這些變化，同時推動客戶數量的增加、產生強勁的現金流、投資於戰略重點領域，同時對我們的資本分配和股東回報戰略保持嚴格的方法，這讓我們感到鼓舞。

As John mentioned, we plan to have a virtual analyst event later in the quarter to talk about this more.

正如約翰所說，我們計劃在本季度晚些時候舉行一次虛擬分析師活動來更多地討論這個問題。

Amir, that's our presentation.

阿米爾，那是我們的介紹。

We're now ready for Q&A.

我們現在準備好進行問答了。

Operator, we're ready to take the first question.

接線員，我們準備回答第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Simon Flannery from Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Simon Flannery。

Okay.

好的。

So looking forward to the Analyst Day.

所以期待分析師日。

Perhaps you could start with the macro environment.

也許您可以從宏觀環境開始。

What are you assuming in terms of the backdrop is?

你假設背景是什麼？

Are you really assuming things continue to be much as they are?

你真的假設事情會繼續保持現狀嗎？

Or do you have a pickup in the second half on things like roaming and advertising?

或者你在下半場對漫遊和廣告等事情有興趣嗎？

Any comments just about trends with what CIOs are seeing, et cetera, that underscores that?

任何關於 CIO 所看到的趨勢的評論等等，強調了這一點？

And then within the CapEx budget, are there any material changes within your priorities there, for example, your fiber build-out?

然後在資本支出預算內，您的優先事項是否有任何重大變化，例如，您的光纖擴建？

I know that's a big priority.

我知道這是一個重要的優先事項。

Is there an opportunity to ramp that up or additional spend on 5G rollout?

是否有機會增加或增加 5G 部署的支出？

Any color there would be great.

任何顏色都會很棒。

So Simon, this -- John, let me take that.

西蒙，這個——約翰，讓我接受那個。

On the macro side, the one thing we saw at the end of last year was the customers' willingness to pay.

在宏觀方面，我們在去年底看到的一件事是客戶的支付意願。

Our bad debts were really quite solid, quite positive trends, both on the consumer and the corporate side.

無論是在消費者方面還是在企業方面，我們的壞賬都非常穩固、非常積極。

So while we're not getting overly excited, it was a positive sense.

因此，雖然我們並沒有過度興奮，但這是一種積極的感覺。

What we have built into our plans are, if you will, more of the kind of current environment for the next 6 months with some second half and really close to the fourth quarter pickup in pandemic relief activities.

如果您願意的話，我們在計劃中納入的內容是未來 6 個月的更多當前環境，其中一些下半年和真正接近第四季度大流行救濟活動的回升。

So we'll see more theatergoing probably in the fourth quarter than we did this year.

因此，我們可能會在第四季度看到比今年更多的看戲。

We'll see some more travel, but in no way did we envision a hockey stick or any kind of dramatic increase.

我們會看到更多的旅行，但我們絕不會想到曲棍球棒或任何形式的戲劇性增長。

It's really much more of a general staying the course.

這實際上更像是一個一般的堅持到底。

There is some slight improvement but staying the course.

有一些輕微的改善，但堅持到底。

Secondly, with -- the one thing I'd add though is the cash collections have been strong and have been resilient, feel really good about that.

其次，我要補充的一件事是現金收集一直很強勁並且有彈性，對此感覺非常好。

So that gives us some comfort.

所以這給了我們一些安慰。

Secondly, with regard to the CapEx, I'd say it this way.

其次，關於資本支出，我會這樣說。

As you look at the kind of the gross capital being put in the ground, it's up $1 billion.

當您查看投入地下的總資本時，它增加了 10 億美元。

There will be some changes in what we spent last year, i.e., I continue to expect the -- a little bit lighter on the video satellite-type side of the business because of the success of AT&T TV and our focus on churn reduction as opposed to gross heads.

我們去年的花費將會有一些變化，也就是說，我繼續期待 - 由於 AT&T TV 的成功以及我們對減少客戶流失的關注到頭頂。

So there'll be some more money there.

所以那裡會有更多的錢。

I think you'll see us -- we've continued to spend money on wireless, but we're well into and well completed with the FirstNet build.

我想你會看到我們——我們繼續在無線方面花錢，但我們已經很好地完成了 FirstNet 的構建。

So we'll have some ability to manage there.

所以我們會有一些管理那裡的能力。

The next piece though is we will see an increase in the fiber build and the opportunity to add some more sales opportunities to that inventory.

下一件事情是，我們將看到纖維製造的增加，以及為該庫存增加更多銷售機會的機會。

I don't know, John, did I miss anything from your perspective?

我不知道，約翰，從你的角度來看，我錯過了什麼嗎？

Yes, I'll be more precise than John.

是的，我會比約翰更精確。

We'll be building somewhere around 2 million fiber residential locations, in that neighborhood.

我們將在該社區建造大約 200 萬個光纖住宅點。

That's kind of what we've got the team tasked to do to give you a sense of what that increase will be.

這就是我們讓團隊負責做的事情，讓您了解增加的內容。

And I think the only other thing I would comment on relative to the wireless spend overall, the shift that's occurring, we put a tremendous amount of capacity out over the last several years in combination with a lot of the work we spoke to you about with the FirstNet upgrades.

而且我認為我要評論的唯一另一件事是相對於整體無線支出，正在發生的轉變，我們在過去幾年中投入了大量的容量以及我們與您交談過的大量工作FirstNet 升級。

And there's a kind of a shift in mix going on within the wireless building.

無線建築內部正在發生一種混合變化。

We're now moving away from what I would call capacity that's on existing spectrum bands and starting to see ourselves prepped for possibly using other spectrum that may come into service at some point in time, et cetera.

我們現在正在遠離我所說的現有頻段上的容量，並開始看到自己準備好使用可能在某個時間點投入使用的其他頻譜，等等。

So we got a little bit of a dynamic going on in the shift that's in the overall wireless program.

因此，我們在整個無線計劃的轉變中獲得了一些動態。

Thanks for your question, Simon.

謝謝你的問題，西蒙。

Okay.

好的。

So would that suggest CapEx -- okay.

那麼這是否表明資本支出 - 好的。

Is CapEx second-half loaded then?

那麼資本支出下半年是否已加載？

We don't have anything that I would tell you is any different than what you've seen.

我們沒有任何東西可以告訴你與你所看到的有任何不同。

We're actually -- we started doing engineering.

我們實際上 - 我們開始做工程。

If you're worried about fiber, Simon, we started doing engineering on the fiber build this year.

如果您擔心光纖，Simon，我們今年開始對光纖構建進行工程設計。

I told you we were getting ready to go, and it was my intent to get going.

我告訴過你我們正準備出發，我打算出發。

And the teams are already out turning things up.

團隊已經開始扭轉局面。

We had the conversation last quarter.

我們在上個季度進行了對話。

I don't want to repeat myself, but we shared with you that this build is a little bit different than when we initially started because we have wire centers that are already fiber-capable.

我不想重複我自己，但我們與您分享的是，這個構建與我們最初開始時有點不同，因為我們有已經支持光纖的線中心。

The infrastructure is in place.

基礎設施到位。

We're going back in and picking up the next adjacent neighborhood or the next successive area.

我們將返回並拾取下一個相鄰社區或下一個連續區域。

And as a result of that, the speed to get up and moving is not the lift that it was the first time we started ramping up on this.

因此，起床和移動的速度不是我們第一次開始加速的升力。

So we've got a little bit smoother dynamic around it than what you might think because of the increase in the fiber dynamic.

因此，由於纖維動態的增加，我們周圍的動態比您想像的要平滑一些。

Thanks very much for the questions, Simon.

非常感謝您的提問，西蒙。

Your next question comes from the line of John Hodulik from UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 John Hodulik。

Great.

偉大的。

First, unrelated question.

首先，無關的問題。

What's driving the 22% decline in the broadband segment?

是什麼推動了寬帶領域 22% 的下降？

Are there additional costs associated with splitting it out from video?

將其從視頻中分離出來是否會產生額外費用？

And sort of how do you expect that to progress through the year, especially with the increased fiber build you expect as we go on?

您如何看待這一年的進展，特別是隨著我們繼續增加您期望的光纖構建？

And then secondly, any update on the timing of the AVOD launch?

其次，關於 AVOD 發佈時間的任何更新？

Or anything you can tell us on new content or reliance on sports and news.

或者您可以告訴我們的有關新內容或對體育和新聞的依賴的任何信息。

John, let me take the first one.

約翰，讓我拿第一個。

With regard to the broadband piece, quite frankly, it's really the efforts we've had to increase our sales capabilities, add new customers, the amounts that we built out in the prior years.

關於寬帶部分，坦率地說，這確實是我們必須努力提高我們的銷售能力，增加新客戶，以及我們在前幾年建立的數量。

It also has to do with the recognition that we are providing HBO Max for all of our gig customers, and so there's an intercompany charge there.

這也與我們為所有演出客戶提供 HBO Max 的認識有關，因此那裡存在公司間費用。

It's within the umbrella of AT&T, and the economics are there, so we feel good about it.

它在 AT&T 的保護傘下，經濟也在那裡，所以我們對此感覺良好。

But that's also in there.

但這也在那裡。

I would tell you, as you all know, the network infrastructure customer service like fiber is a long-term game, and we've gone through the process many times, feel very good about the long-term returns and the efforts.

我告訴大家，大家都知道，像光纖這樣的網絡基礎設施客戶服務是一個長期的遊戲，我們經歷了很多次，對長期的回報和努力感到非常滿意。

But yes, we're going to be spending some money as we did last year, to invest in that customer growth.

但是，是的，我們將像去年一樣花費一些錢來投資於客戶增長。

You saw the 600,000 plus, 650,000-or-so net adds last 6 months.

你看到了過去 6 個月的 600,000 多，650,000 左右的淨增加。

And we feel very good about that particularly when we look at the churn numbers, particularly when we look at the customer satisfaction, the NPS scores so completely or complete support the fact.

我們對此感覺非常好，特別是當我們查看流失數字時，特別是當我們查看客戶滿意度時，NPS 得分如此完全或完全支持這一事實。

But yes, there is some investment there.

但是，是的，那裡有一些投資。

With regard to the AVOD, we are expecting to launch our international version of the HBO Max later this year as well as the AVOD.

關於 AVOD，我們預計將在今年晚些時候推出我們的國際版 HBO Max 以及 AVOD。

I'm not ready to give any dates.

我還沒準備好給出任何日期。

John, I don't know if you want to say anything more specific.

約翰，我不知道你是否想說什麼更具體的。

We're still shooting for a second quarter launch on AVOD.

我們仍在為 AVOD 的第二季度發布做準備。

And I think I would point out equally as important is the Latin America launch of HBO Max that we've been working really hard on and will be an important driver for us on future growth and getting ourselves embedded into the international front on a unified platform and approach to things.

我想我會指出同樣重要的是拉丁美洲推出 HBO Max，我們一直在努力工作，並將成為我們未來增長的重要推動力，讓我們在統一平台上融入國際前沿和對待事物的態度。

So you should expect, as we get into the second quarter, there's going to be a lot of activity and change going on here.

所以你應該預料到，隨著我們進入第二季度，這裡將會有很多活動和變化。

One of the reasons we're kind of trying to pinpoint the exact date on it is, as you know, we've been working through pandemic-related production issues.

如您所知，我們試圖確定確切日期的原因之一是，我們一直在努力解決與大流行相關的生產問題。

And ramping that back up has been a pretty significant path.

加強備份是一條非常重要的道路。

The team has done a remarkable job getting ourselves back into that business and working through the dynamics safely.

該團隊做得非常出色，讓我們自己重新投入到該業務中，並安全地通過動態。

It puts a little bit of overhead on things in terms of speed of production and what we're able to do.

它在生產速度和我們能夠做的事情方面增加了一些開銷。

And there's a bit of rework that goes on with trying to work around the limitations of a pandemic-based environment.

在嘗試解決基於流行病的環境的限制時，需要進行一些返工。

As a result of that, we're still fighting through getting the pipeline, dropping the content at the right rate and pace that we wanted to.

因此，我們仍在努力爭取獲得管道，以我們想要的正確速度和速度投放內容。

And the first quarter this year continues to be a bit of a stretch in that regard as we cycle back into production.

隨著我們重新投入生產，今年第一季度在這方面仍然有點緊張。

Our expectations are that we start to hit our stride as we get into the second quarter, and it's really important as we put these new iterations of the product now that we have ourselves in a good position in terms of the content inventory.

我們的期望是，隨著我們進入第二季度，我們開始大踏步前進，這非常重要，因為我們現在在內容庫存方面處於有利位置，因此我們推出了這些產品的新迭代。

And so as we're kind of going hand-to-mouth on these right now, John, we'll be a little bit more discrete on when we announce what's coming out in exactly what month simply because it's just that tough and that much of a battle, literally show by show, to get this stuff done and get it into the funnel, and we're working hard to do that.

因此，約翰，當我們宣布確切在哪個月份發布的內容時，我們會更加謹慎，因為它就是那麼艱難而且那麼多一場戰鬥，逐場展示，完成這些工作並將其納入漏斗，我們正在努力做到這一點。

And we hope we're past any of the unexpected dynamics, like the California closures that went on over the last several weeks that put a couple of twists and turns in the road, and we've got the worst behind us.

我們希望我們已經度過了任何意想不到的動態，例如過去幾週加利福尼亞關閉的情況，這給道路帶來了一些曲折，我們已經擺脫了最糟糕的情況。

But yes, I'm a little chased right now with everything on the pandemic.

但是，是的，我現在對大流行的一切都有些追趕。

So I don't want to overpromise anything.

所以我不想過分承諾任何事情。

Your next question comes from the line of Phil Cusick from JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Phil Cusick。

So much to ask.

要問的太多了。

So in wireless, John, you talked about growing customer relationships overall as a priority for the company.

所以在無線領域，約翰，你談到了整體上發展客戶關係是公司的首要任務。

Should we assume that means the current level of promotion and upgrades, that effort continues?

我們是否應該假設這意味著當前的促銷和升級水平，這種努力仍在繼續？

And then second, to follow up for John Stephens.

其次，跟進約翰斯蒂芬斯。

Just really quick.

真的很快。

You mentioned an updated leverage target that you had talked about in an Analyst Day.

您提到了您在分析師日中談到的更新的槓桿目標。

I know you can't really talk about where leverage goes around an auction.

我知道你不能真正談論槓桿在拍賣中的位置。

But do you anticipate changing the target from the current 2.5 turns?

但是您是否預計將目標從當前的 2.5 回合更改？

So Phil, the -- look, we're in a dynamic market.

所以菲爾，看，我們處於一個充滿活力的市場。

Things change all the time.

事情一直在變化。

We're going to look at our promotion strategies and adjust them accordingly and determine what we need to do to continue to be in a position to maintain and grow share.

我們將審視我們的促銷策略並相應地調整它們，並確定我們需要做些什麼來繼續保持和增加份額。

And it's -- I think it's really important that we continue to have a growing business.

這是 - 我認為我們繼續擁有不斷增長的業務非常重要。

There's -- the management team is focused on 2 things.

有——管理團隊專注於兩件事。

We like the momentum.

我們喜歡這種勢頭。

I think we'd like to be a little bit more efficient with the momentum.

我認為我們希望在這種勢頭上更有效率。

We've done some really good stuff and had some really good progress on self-funding a lot of what we've been doing in the market.

我們已經做了一些非常好的事情，並且在自籌資金方面取得了一些非常好的進展，我們在市場上一直在做很多事情。

But we're not self-funding all of it yet.

但我們還沒有自籌資金。

And so our continued work on trying to manage the efficiency and effectiveness of this business so that we can be in a more aggressive posture in the market is something that this team is working on every quarter.

因此，我們繼續努力管理這項業務的效率和有效性，以便我們能夠在市場上處於更積極的姿態，這是這個團隊每個季度都在努力的事情。

And we've tried to be diligent and reasonable in our guidance to you and make sure that we have high confidence in what we share.

我們在對您的指導中努力做到勤勉和合理，並確保我們對所分享的內容充滿信心。

But what I'm turning back to the management team is a task that I'd say is more aggressive.

但我要回到管理團隊的是一項我會說更具侵略性的任務。

And to the extent that this management team delivers, and they have been doing a remarkable job of doing that over the last several quarters, does that mean that, that's going to give us more room to do more in the market and continue to maintain a posture that I think is totally appropriate?

就這個管理團隊的表現而言，並且他們在過去幾個季度中一直在做這方面的出色工作，這是否意味著，這將為我們提供更多在市場上做更多事情的空間，並繼續保持我認為完全合適的姿勢？

Bringing in high-value customers, the right kind of customers we want.

帶來高價值客戶，我們想要的正確類型的客戶。

Going down the swim lanes that we set up for ourselves that we think we have a unique place to be, which is winning in the public sector with our FirstNet abilities, using our deep enterprise customer relationships to go deeper into the customer base with affinity programs, ensuring that we're getting the mass market with attractive offers like HBO Max and what's associated with that, that is -- it brought in a really attractive gross add pool and treating our embedded base well, that is the strategy.

沿著我們為自己設置的泳道走下去，我們認為自己有一個獨特的地方，這就是憑藉我們的 FirstNet 能力在公共部門贏得勝利，利用我們深厚的企業客戶關係，通過親和力計劃更深入地進入客戶群，確保我們通過 HBO Max 等有吸引力的產品獲得大眾市場以及與之相關的內容，也就是說 - 它帶來了一個非常有吸引力的總添加池並很好地對待我們的嵌入式基礎，這就是策略。

And we're going to continue to do that.

我們將繼續這樣做。

I think you're seeing it, to be the industry leader in churn this quarter, I think we called it right.

我想你已經看到了，成為本季度流失率的行業領導者，我認為我們說得對。

We said that we don't have customers that are upset about our network.

我們說我們沒有客戶對我們的網絡感到不安。

They like it.

他們喜歡它。

We don't have customers that are upset about our service.

我們沒有客戶對我們的服務感到不滿。

They're satisfied with our service.

他們對我們的服務很滿意。

We have customers who are interested in finding new devices.

我們的客戶有興趣尋找新設備。

We shared with you that we had a little bit more aging population on device longevity than the rest of the industry.

我們與您分享的是，我們在設備壽命方面的老齡化人口比業內其他公司要多一些。

We've been targeting how we do that.

我們一直在瞄准我們如何做到這一點。

I think getting the new 30-year lease on life -- the 30-month lease on life with these customers -- I wish it was 30 years, it's in a very appropriate exchange for the franchise right now given everything we have in front of us.

我認為獲得新的 30 年壽命租約 - 與這些客戶的 30 個月壽命租約 - 我希望是 30 年，考慮到我們面前的一切，現在這是一個非常合適的特許經營權交換我們。

Phil, with regard to the update at the analyst conference.

菲爾，關於分析師會議上的更新。

First and foremost, what we've said and will continue to say is free cash flow in excess of dividends is going to go to pay down debt.

首先，我們已經說過並將繼續說的是超過股息的自由現金流將用於償還債務。

Proceeds from the sale of assets is going to pay down debt.

出售資產的收益將用於償還債務。

The reality of it is we would prefer to be able to give you more information about a leverage target.

事實上，我們希望能夠為您提供有關槓桿目標的更多信息。

We can't do that at this time because of the status of the C-band auction and our inability to comment on.

由於 C 波段拍賣的狀態以及我們無法發表評論，我們目前無法這樣做。

That's all we're trying to tell you is that we understand that we would normally give that to you, that it would be appropriate.

這就是我們試圖告訴您的所有內容，我們了解我們通常會將其提供給您，這將是適當的。

But because of the FCC rules, we can't.

但由於 FCC 的規定，我們不能。

So we will commit that we will update it when it's past then.

所以我們會承諾我們會在它過去時更新它。

That's the story.

這就是故事。

I think the one thing that I'd repeat, though, is $27.5 billion last year, $26 billion we're guiding for next year, $15 billion dividend, a lot of money to use to pay down debt.

不過，我想我要重複的一件事是，去年 275 億美元，我們明年指導的 260 億美元，150 億美元的股息，大量用於償還債務的資金。

That's what -- the message we want to give you, and the proceeds from things like Crunchyroll going to use to pay down debt.

這就是我們想要給你的信息，以及像 Crunchyroll 這樣的收益將用於償還債務。

So we feel good about what we've done over the last 3 years with regard to managing the debt, and we feel really good about our ability going forward.

因此，我們對過去 3 年在管理債務方面所做的工作感到滿意，我們對自己未來的能力感到非常滿意。

But the comment about leverage is just -- it's appropriate for us to give it to you.

但是關於槓桿的評論只是——我們把它給你是合適的。

We can't because of the rules around the C-band auction.

我們不能因為圍繞 C 波段拍賣的規則。

Okay.

好的。

So that's a maybe this year leverage target, not a permanent changing the 2.5 leverage target.

所以這可能是今年的槓桿目標，而不是永久改變 2.5 的槓桿目標。

I'd say we'll give you all that at the analyst conference when we can talk about it, quite frankly.

坦率地說，當我們可以談論它時，我會說我們會在分析師會議上給你所有這些。

I just got to be really careful.

我必須非常小心。

We'll go from there and move forward.

我們將從那裡繼續前進。

But our guidance on this, the real piece is cash flow in excess of dividends and proceeds from asset sales go to pay down debt.

但我們對此的指導，真正的部分是現金流量超過股息和資產出售收益用於償還債務。

And if you look at our net debt at the end of the year, I think we've shown a -- we've got a good record to prove that we're doing what we said we're going to do.

如果你看看我們年底的淨債務，我認為我們已經展示了——我們有一個很好的記錄來證明我們正在做我們所說的我們將要做的事情。

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Rollins from Citi.

您的下一個問題來自花旗的 Michael Rollins。

Just want to follow up on the wireless business, just with a couple of questions.

只是想跟進無線業務，只是有幾個問題。

So with the guidance to grow service revenues at about 2%, can you frame the opportunity to improve ARPU for your wireless customers over the next 12 to 24 months?

因此，在服務收入增長約 2% 的指導下，您能否把握機會在未來 12 到 24 個月內為您的無線客戶提高 ARPU？

And then also with that target and given where the fourth quarter service revenue growth was, does that mean that AT&T may be exiting the fourth quarter of '21 with service revenue growth above that 2% for the whole year and relative to maybe where you're starting earlier in the year from?

然後還有這個目標，並考慮到第四季度服務收入增長的情況，這是否意味著 AT&T 可能會退出 21 年第四季度，全年服務收入增長超過 2%，並且可能與你的情況相比從年初重新開始？

Michael, let me take a quick -- just to point out I think you're aware, but the first quarter of 2021, this quarter we're in now, last year, we still had international roaming.

邁克爾，讓我快速說一下——我想你已經知道了，但是 2021 年第一季度，這個季度我們現在，去年，我們仍然有國際漫遊。

And so that compare is going to be compared to, if you will, 2.5 months of international roaming.

因此，如果你願意的話，這個比較將被比作 2.5 個月的國際漫遊。

So that will be one set.

所以這將是一組。

The next 3 quarters will presumably be without the international roaming.

接下來的 3 個季度大概將沒有國際漫遊。

So the numbers will be different.

所以數字會有所不同。

That's one, and I'd just say that to you.

那是一個，我只想對你說。

So I don't want to get into quarterly analysis.

所以我不想進行季度分析。

Because I just don't want to confuse things, we talk about the full year.

因為我只是不想混淆，我們談論的是全年。

Secondly, the real story on the service revenue is customer growth.

其次，服務收入的真實故事是客戶增長。

And quite frankly, we talk about the 1.2 million of postpaid net adds, the 1.5 million of -- 1.2 million postpaid net adds last quarter, the 1.5 million of voice net adds mostly in the last 6 months, all of that.

坦率地說，我們談論的是 120 萬後付費淨增加，上個季度 150 萬 - 120 萬後付費淨增加， 150 萬語音淨增加主要在過去 6 個月，所有這些。

But the reality is, too, we have close to 16 million total wireless connection net adds during the quarter -- during the year when you include all connections.

但現實情況也是，我們在本季度增加了近 1600 萬個無線連接網絡 - 包括所有連接在內的這一年。

And we're seeing -- and we believe that our strategies, the ones John just talked about with treating our best customers with the best offers and things like that have the opportunity to win for us the best network and so forth.

我們看到了——我們相信我們的策略，約翰剛才談到的那些用最好的優惠來對待我們最好的客戶，諸如此類的事情有機會為我們贏得最好的網絡等等。

And so we're optimistic about the ability to continue to grow that customer base.

因此，我們對繼續擴大客戶群的能力持樂觀態度。

That's what's driving the service revenues.

這就是推動服務收入的原因。

With regard to the ARPU growth, the continued opportunities go into the upscaling of these packages with a great opportunity to offer HBO Max, which has certainly got tailwinds behind it and the success of it.

關於 ARPU 的增長，這些套餐的升級繼續存在機會，這是提供 HBO Max 的絕佳機會，這肯定有其背後的順風和成功。

You saw the 7 million HBO adds, best we've had in not only 10 years, but the best in the total 10 years, better than the total last 10 years.

你看到了 700 萬的 HBO 新增，這不僅是 10 年來最好的，而且是 10 年來最好的，比過去 10 年的總和還要好。

That is going to -- we believe that, that kind of packaging with wireless is going to help and such that we're going to be able to grow it and then grow the ARPU from getting people to buy up not just from the mobile share plans into unlimited, but to buy up for the basic unlimited all the way up to the Elite.

這將——我們相信，這種無線包裝會有所幫助，這樣我們就能夠增長它，然後通過讓人們購買而不僅僅是從移動份額中增加 ARPU計劃成無限，但要買基本無限一直到精英。

That's the story.

這就是故事。

We're not giving specific percentages, dollars, but that's what builds that confidence in wireless service revenue growth, which really drives the overall growth of the company's 1% guidance on revenue growth, that and some tailwinds from the comeback of WarnerMedia.

我們沒有給出具體的百分比和美元，但這就是建立對無線服務收入增長的信心的原因，這確實推動了公司 1% 的收入增長指導的整體增長，以及華納媒體捲土重來的一些順風。

Your next question comes from the line of David Barden from Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 David Barden。

And John, I guess, this is going to be your last quarterly conference call.

約翰，我猜，這將是你最後一次季度電話會議。

So we'll see you at the Analyst Day, but congrats on everything you've gotten done.

所以我們會在分析師日見到你，但祝賀你所做的一切。

Thanks, David.

謝謝，大衛。

I just wanted to -- 2 questions.

我只是想—— 2 個問題。

One is separating out the video business, taking the $15.5 billion write-down is going to fan the flames of the conversation around divesting that satellite business.

一個是分離視頻業務，減記 155 億美元將引發圍繞剝離該衛星業務的對話的火焰。

Could you kind of, either John or John, could you elaborate a little bit on kind of what that might look like?

約翰或約翰，您能否詳細說明一下這可能是什麼樣的？

And what in the $26 billion of free cash flow guidance is coming from the satellite video business today?

260 億美元的自由現金流指引來自今天的衛星視頻業務？

And then the second conversation, we've just finished the first month of the HBO Max experience with Wonder Woman commensurate with the theatrical release.

然後是第二次談話，我們剛剛完成了與影院上映相稱的神奇女俠的 HBO Max 體驗的第一個月。

And this is obviously going to happen like 11 more times over the course of 2021 as you kind of do the day, date thing with the movie slate.

這顯然會在 2021 年期間再發生 11 次，因為你會在電影中做一天、約會的事情。

If we multiply what happened with Wonder Woman times 11 over the course of 2021, what does that look like for Warner Bros.

如果我們將 2021 年神奇女俠發生的事情乘以 11，華納兄弟會是什麼樣子？

from a revenue and profit standpoint relative to what maybe 2019 would have looked like in a more normal year?

從收入和利潤的角度來看，2019 年在更正常的年份可能會是什麼樣子？

So let me try to deal with the front end of that, David, and then John can give you a little bit of context on the cash flow.

所以讓我試著處理一下前端，大衛，然後約翰可以給你一些關於現金流的背景。

Obviously, what I'll say on that is we assume that we're running the business as we portrayed it to you.

顯然，我要說的是，我們假設我們正在按照我們向您描述的那樣經營業務。

And we have been debating how we wanted to set up our operations for video for some time.

一段時間以來，我們一直在討論如何設置視頻操作。

And I think part of this, when we step back and think about why we made this change is we figure we're at a life cycle change in these products, that getting management teams focused in this way will be the best way to maximize value in the discrete product lines.

我認為部分原因是，當我們退後一步思考為什麼做出這種改變時，我們認為我們正處於這些產品的生命週期變化中，讓管理團隊以這種方式專注將是實現價值最大化的最佳方式在離散產品線中。

And so in the video case, we've seen a pretty dramatic change in what's occurring in the market.

因此，在視頻案例中，我們看到了市場上正在發生的巨大變化。

And there's a variety of things driving it.

驅動它的因素有很多。

You all know about the declines in the pay TV life cycle.

你們都知道付費電視生命週期的下降。

But we also have the dynamic that's starting to occur, which I think is a really important one to understand where we're starting to see pay TV disconnect a little bit from broadband as virtual MVPDs start up.

但是我們也有開始出現的動態，我認為這是一個非常重要的動態，它可以了解隨著虛擬 MVPD 的啟動，我們開始看到付費電視與寬帶有點斷開連接。

Our own product itself, in many respects, has a virtual characteristic to it, and it's a fairly mature offering.

我們自己的產品本身，在很多方面，都有一個虛擬的特徵，它是一個相當成熟的產品。

And so getting the management team really focused on what to do in the latter stages of the life cycle of a mature product and ensuring that we manage it effectively, I think, is a wise thing to do for that product on a stand-alone basis.

因此，讓管理團隊真正專注於在成熟產品生命週期的後期做什麼，並確保我們有效地管理它，我認為，對於該產品來說，獨立地做一個明智的事情.

And that's one driver behind why we made that decision.

這就是我們做出這個決定的原因之一。

The second driver behind why we made this decision is I believe we're at the front end of a dynamic of customers wanting to ensure that they have connectivity and broadband access no matter where they go, and they want a simpler model around that.

我們做出此決定的第二個驅動因素是，我相信我們處於客戶動態的前端，他們希望確保他們無論去哪裡都能獲得連接和寬帶接入，並且他們想要一個更簡單的模型。

And I think about our business being in a very unique position for both businesses and consumers to deliver on that promise, and the innovation that's going to be necessary from a product perspective.

我認為我們的企業處於非常獨特的位置，企業和消費者都可以兌現這一承諾，從產品的角度來看，這將是必要的創新。

And then pairing that with what are the new complementary products and services that customers might want to bundle or use with that connectivity I think is a new play, and that's a new growth for us.

然後將其與客戶可能希望與這種連接捆綁或使用的新互補產品和服務相結合，我認為這是一個新遊戲，這對我們來說是一個新的增長。

And to get another part of the management team really focused on that aspect of our business is how we simplify unified connectivity for our customer base, whether a consumer or a business, whether fixed or mobile, starting to think about what those virtual-type add-ons are to that product that come with a very different delivery mechanism than what we've historically seen when we've been bundling what I would call these high overhead, premise-intensive visit-type services that we've traditionally had in the bundle.

為了讓管理團隊的另一部分真正專注於我們業務的這一方面，我們如何簡化客戶群的統一連接，無論是消費者還是企業，無論是固定的還是移動的，開始考慮這些虛擬類型添加了什麼-on 對於該產品而言，其交付機制與我們以往在捆綁我們傳統上在捆。

And playing to that is the strength and position for growth is the second part of why we want the management team set up the way we have it right now and focused on that going forward.

發揮這一點是增長的力量和地位，這是我們希望管理團隊建立我們現在擁有的方式並專注於未來的第二部分。

And that just makes sense for how we're operating the business because of the time and place and where we are.

由於時間和地點以及我們所處的位置，這對於我們如何運營業務來說是有意義的。

And we are absolutely comfortable that that's the right call for how to operate our business moving forward.

我們絕對相信這是正確的呼籲如何經營我們的業務向前發展。

And I will tell you, I'm not going to speculate on anything structural or M&A-oriented.

我會告訴你，我不會推測任何結構性或併購導向的事情。

We never do, and I'm not going to now.

我們從不這樣做，我現在也不會這樣做。

But I believe that what we're doing here is if the goal is to always run an asset for maximum value creation, this is the right strategy to run the asset for maximum value creation.

但我相信，如果我們的目標是始終運行資產以實現最大價值創造，那麼這是運行資產以實現最大價值創造的正確策略。

John?

約翰？

Yes.

是的。

Both the asset of video and both the asset of broadband is so critical going forward.

視頻資產和寬帶資產在未來都至關重要。

It just had...

它剛剛...

Let me just quickly touch on the HBO Max and theatrical piece, if I could.

如果可以的話，讓我快速談談 HBO Max 和戲劇作品。

So I think where we are is that there's a difference between a -- what I'll call a tentpole release and a nontentpole release.

所以我認為我們現在的情況是——我稱之為觸角發布和非觸角發布之間存在差異。

And Wonder Woman and the nature of that production value and what occurs in it is different than the balance of many of the other movies in our slate.

神奇女俠和那個製作價值的性質以及其中發生的事情與我們名單中的許多其他電影的平衡不同。

We have other tentpole releases that occur throughout the 2021 release schedule.

在整個 2021 年發佈時間表中，我們還會發布其他主要版本。

They are going to be equally as buzzworthy as Wonder Woman.

他們將與神奇女俠一樣引人注目。

And we have in between those other high-quality offerings that fill that in, that cater to maybe sometimes a less broad audience.

我們介於其他高質量的產品之間，這些產品可以滿足有時可能不那麼廣泛的受眾。

And that's the power of doing what we did in bringing the entire slate out to our end user base.

這就是我們所做的事情的力量，將整個石板帶到我們的最終用戶群中。

So we're going to see a little bit of spikiness in what occurs.

所以我們會看到發生的事情有一點點尖峰。

And I don't think it's fair to say if we're going to put, call it, 17, 18, whatever, movies we ultimately settle on in the release structure for the year, we're not going to see the kind of subscriber spikes that maybe we saw in December and early January every time we put a movie out, but that really isn't the design and intent of the plan.

而且我不認為公平地說，如果我們將把它稱為 17 年、18 年之類的電影，我們最終會在今年的發行結構中確定，我們不會看到那種每次我們推出一部電影時，我們可能會在 12 月和 1 月初看到訂閱人數激增，但這確實不是該計劃的設計和意圖。

We have -- but we do have an opportunity to build marketing and promotion opportunities around those bigger releases that have broader buzz and broader application across the customer base.

我們有 - 但我們確實有機會圍繞那些在客戶群中具有更廣泛的嗡嗡聲和更廣泛應用的更大版本建立營銷和推廣機會。

And we're going to take every advantage of doing that, and we're going to work filling in the niche between it.

我們將充分利用這樣做的每一個優勢，我們將努力填補它之間的利基。

This -- I think I want to stress.

這——我想我想強調一下。

This is a unique year, and we did this as a unique year.

這是獨特的一年，我們將其作為獨特的一年。

And probably appropriate to make a comment that in some cases, I'll say maybe the dynamic of the media and the press was a little oversold or a little intense on both ends of the spectrum around this from my point of view.

並且可能適合發表評論，在某些情況下，從我的角度來看，媒體和媒體的動態可能在這方面的兩端都有點超賣或有點激烈。

We told you when the team decided to make this move that we thought it was appropriate for this moment in time.

當團隊決定採取這一舉措時，我們告訴過你，我們認為此時此刻是合適的。

And the team made the call, and I think it was a bold and aggressive swing.

球隊做出了決定，我認為這是一次大膽而激進的揮桿。

It was done with a lot of thought as to what needed to occur in the subscriber base and the balance of the value of the franchises between our theatrical and our streaming business.

考慮到用戶群需要發生什麼以及我們的戲劇和流媒體業務之間特許經營權的價值平衡，我們進行了很多思考。

It was certainly nice to have a streaming business to present us this option of how we use this content.

擁有流媒體業務向我們展示我們如何使用這些內容的選項當然很好。

But part of that call was just built on the dynamic of what we thought the theatrical moviegoing audiences were going to look like in 2021.

但該呼籲的一部分只是建立在我們認為影院觀眾在 2021 年的樣子的動態之上。

And since we articulated that, I would say the data points have come in that have been very consistent with the set of assumptions that we had at the front end of that.

既然我們已經闡明了這一點，我想說的是，數據點與我們在前端的一組假設非常一致。

I mean just the last several weeks, you've seen other studios continuing to snowplow releases, moving them out of the first half of the year, moving them into the second half of the year, which further cements our point of view that we're going to see a very crowded theatrical field as we get into late 2021 and early 2022.

我的意思是在過去的幾周里，你已經看到其他工作室繼續掃雪，將它們從上半年移到下半年，這進一步鞏固了我們的觀點，即我們'隨著我們進入 2021 年底和 2022 年初，我們將看到一個非常擁擠的戲劇領域。

And we don't believe that magically just because there's more content showing up in theaters all at the same time that, that's going to dramatically increase the size of the moviegoing population at that time.

而且我們不相信這會神奇地僅僅因為同時有更多的內容出現在影院中，這將大大增加當時電影觀眾的規模。

And so as we indicated by making the write-off, we felt like we had a little bit of a spoiling asset here that needed to be moved -- used more effectively.

因此，正如我們通過註銷所表明的那樣，我們覺得我們這裡有一點需要轉移的破壞資產 - 更有效地使用。

And this was the right economic call to balance this across both sides.

這是平衡雙方的正確經濟呼籲。

And we think using it to balance out long-lived subscribers to build out a scaled platform that allow us to have options in our distribution and using this unfortunate set of circumstances around the pandemic for an opportunity, make lemonade out of lemons, was the right call in this case.

我們認為使用它來平衡長期訂閱者以建立一個可擴展的平台，使我們能夠在我們的發行中擁有選擇權，並利用圍繞大流行的這種不幸的情況尋找機會，用檸檬製作檸檬水，是正確的在這種情況下打電話。

And I think we all have to understand, we step back and think about the theatrical business.

而且我認為我們都必須理解，我們退後一步考慮戲劇業務。

I mean nobody went to theaters in 2020 for the most part.

我的意思是，在 2020 年的大部分時間裡，沒有人去電影院。

It was a pandemic.

這是一場流行病。

Just like nobody got on airplanes, and nobody went to hotels, and nobody goes to restaurants.

就像沒有人上飛機，沒有人去酒店，也沒有人去餐館一樣。

And all of those businesses had a little bit of dislocation because of that, and the theatrical business had a little bit of dislocation.

所有這些業務都因此而有些混亂，而戲劇業務也有些混亂。

And I applaud the team for the move they made and trying to make the best of this circumstance, for our circumstance around having a really strong theatrical slate that can help our streaming product.

我讚揚團隊採取的行動，並努力充分利用這種情況，因為我們擁有一個非常強大的戲劇片，可以幫助我們的流媒體產品。

Could we have maybe done some things a little bit differently in how we got through the front end of it?

在我們如何通過前端的過程中，我們可能會做一些不同的事情嗎？

Any time you're first in something, there's no map.

任何時候你在某事中處於領先地位，都沒有地圖。

You're a trailblazer.

你是開拓者。

There's nothing perfect for you to read.

沒有什麼適合你閱讀的。

And I think that there's -- there were some things on the margin that maybe we'd do a little bit differently.

而且我認為有一些事情在邊緣，也許我們會做一些不同的事情。

But at the end of the day, it's going to get down to making sure people are fairly compensated and treated well.

但歸根結底，要確保人們得到公平的補償和良好的待遇。

And I think we know how to do that.

我認為我們知道如何做到這一點。

I think we've been good to the theater owners in the perspective that the exhibitors now have a planned and routine set of releases coming to them at a time when they really, as we've talked about, have other studios snowplowing.

我認為我們對劇院所有者很好，因為放映商現在有一套計劃好的和例行的發行，而正如我們所談到的那樣，他們真的有其他工作室在掃雪。

I think in the end, this will ultimately shape up to be a good thing across the board as we get through the emotional aspects that are bound to be there in a high anxiety environment like the pandemic.

我認為最終，隨著我們克服在大流行等高度焦慮環境中必然存在的情感方面，這最終將成為一件全面的好事。

And all things having been said with what we've seen in the front end of the numbers, what our experience has been, we are delivering on this in a way that we expected.

所有的事情都和我們在數字前端看到的一樣，我們的經驗是什麼，我們正在以我們預期的方式實現這一目標。

It's pretty consistent with the value shifts that we expected and feel pretty good about where we are in the early innings of this.

這與我們預期的價值轉變非常一致，並且對我們在早期階段所處的位置感覺非常好。

So John, why don't you go ahead and...

所以約翰，你為什麼不繼續...

Yes.

是的。

You can take a couple of things.

你可以拿幾樣東西。

One, I'd point out -- first and foremost from my perspective, 7 million net adds is pretty stout, and the strategy worked.

一，我要指出——首先，從我的角度來看，700 萬的淨增加量相當強勁，而且該策略奏效了。

And secondly, it's still early.

其次，現在還早。

We're 31 days out from Wonder Woman's release, I think.

我想，距離神奇女俠的上映還有 31 天。

And so we'll continue to follow it.

因此，我們將繼續關注它。

More importantly, for everybody on the call, I think at the Analyst Day, we'll get the team.

更重要的是，對於通話中的每個人，我認為在分析師日，我們將召集團隊。

Jason and his team will get the opportunity to talk to you about some of the further plans and go through that.

Jason 和他的團隊將有機會與您討論一些進一步的計劃並完成這些計劃。

Dave, your other question, I think, was with regard to the planning process.

戴夫，我認為你的另一個問題是關於規劃過程的。

The guidance we've given here today, but for the exclusion of any commentary on C-band, is what we have as assets in our portfolio as of January 1 and owning them for the full year other than Crunchyroll, other than the already held-for-sale termination of Crunchyroll.

我們今天在這裡給出的指導，但不包括對 C 波段的任何評論，是截至 1 月 1 日我們在我們的投資組合中擁有的資產，並且除了已經持有的 Crunchyroll 之外，全年擁有它們-出售終止 Crunchyroll。

And so yes, there is free cash flow in here from the video business.

所以是的，視頻業務有自由現金流。

I won't give you a specific number on that, Dave.

我不會給你一個具體的數字，戴夫。

But you can assume based on the results of the business last year, it's probably going to be a lower number inclusive next year than it is this year for the changes in customer base and so forth.

但是您可以根據去年的業務結果假設，由於客戶群的變化等等，明年的數字可能會低於今年。

But it is a business as usual, what I would call kind of business planning approach.

但這是照常營業，我稱之為商業計劃方法。

All that being said, feel really good about the free cash flow position.

儘管如此，對自由現金流狀況的感覺真的很好。

And particularly, as I mentioned in an earlier question, cash came in strong at the end of the year with regard to the fourth quarter, with regard to customer activity, both on the corporate business side as well as the consumer side.

特別是，正如我在之前的一個問題中提到的那樣，就第四季度的客戶活動而言，現金在年底時強勁增長，無論是在企業業務方面還是在消費者方面。

And you guys can see it in our bad debt, which are remarkably low.

你們可以在我們的壞賬中看到它，這些壞賬非常低。

Team did a really great job of weeding out fraud and weeding out -- and focusing on the best customers, and it's showing up in our numbers.

團隊在消除欺詐和消除欺詐方面做得非常出色 - 並專注於最好的客戶，它出現在我們的數據中。

So I think -- hopefully, that answers your question, David.

所以我認為——希望這能回答你的問題，大衛。

Thanks for the earlier comment about my retirement.

感謝您之前對我退休的評論。

It will be a change, but it will be interesting.

這將是一個變化，但它會很有趣。

Good luck.

祝你好運。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Your next question comes from the line of Brett Feldman from Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的 Brett Feldman。

And if you don't mind, like to follow up on some of the fiber commentary.

如果您不介意，請關註一些纖維評論。

It's obviously encouraging to see that you're going to be picking up the pace of the build-out this year.

很顯然，看到你們今年將加快擴建步伐，這顯然是令人鼓舞的。

But even after building out 2 million additional homes passed, that would still be a small subset of the number of customer locations in your total wireline footprint.

但是，即使在建造了 200 萬個額外房屋之後，這仍然只是您的總有線網絡足跡中客戶位置數量的一小部分。

How do you think about what portion of that footprint, which I think has 60 million households in it, is potentially attractive in terms of being a great demo and having economics to reach them that generate a compelling return for you?

你如何看待這個足跡中的哪一部分，我認為其中有 6000 萬個家庭，在成為一個偉大的演示和有經濟性來吸引他們並為你帶來令人信服的回報方面具有潛在的吸引力？

In other words, for how long can you keep adding 2 million homes a year to your footprint?

換句話說，你每年能在你的足跡上增加 200 萬套房屋多久？

And am I even asking this question correctly because as you build out your 5G footprint, which is really a national 5G network using layers of spectrum across multiple bands, it would seem like wireless will increasingly be a viable technology for reaching households beyond your traditional footprint.

我是否正確地問了這個問題，因為當你建立你的 5G 足跡時，這實際上是一個使用跨多個頻段的頻譜層的國家 5G 網絡，看起來無線將越來越成為一種可行的技術，可以覆蓋傳統足蹟之外的家庭.

How do you think about the fixed wireless opportunity?

您如何看待固定無線機會？

And maybe how do you just think about the ability to be a provider of high-speed residential broadband across the country?

也許您如何看待成為全國高速住宅寬帶提供商的能力？

So Brett, the -- I'm going to sound like a broken record, but it's really important on these long-lived investments that we be pretty consistent internally, so that the management team can get to a consistent level of execution year-over-year.

所以布雷特，我聽起來像是一個破紀錄，但對於這些長期投資來說，我們內部保持一致非常重要，這樣管理團隊才能在一年中達到一致的執行水平-年。

If I think about what has traditionally happened in outside plant access technology upgrades, I've been through a series of them over my career.

如果我想想傳統上在外部工廠訪問技術升級中發生的事情，我在我的職業生涯中經歷了一系列。

And I don't think this one is going to be a whole lot different.

而且我認為這不會有很大不同。

There's always the first 1/3 of the customer base that's kind of the low-hanging fruit, slam dunk, that is the part of the customer base that you cut your teeth on, get your processes squared away on, get the vendor community up the first part of the cost curve.

總有前 1/3 的客戶群是一種低調的果實，灌籃，這是客戶群的一部分，你咬牙切齒，讓你的流程得到解決，讓供應商社區起來成本曲線的第一部分。

And it's like the no-brainer economically, and you kind of make your decision that, that's where you're going to start.

這就像經濟上的明智之舉，您可以做出決定，這就是您要開始的地方。

And I would say we went through that largely through that first 1/3 in the investment we've made over the last several years.

我想說的是，我們在過去幾年的投資中主要經歷了前 1/3 的投資。

Then what happens is as you get your -- up the learning curve, and the vendors start to scale and you start to gain confidence in your economics and your business processes start to improve, and you start to see the marginal economics improve on the subscriber, which is what you're going to start to see happen on some of those broadband numbers on the fiber base that we've broken out for you.

然後會發生什麼，當你獲得你的學習曲線，供應商開始擴大規模，你開始對你的經濟產生信心，你的業務流程開始改善，你開始看到訂戶的邊際經濟改善，這就是您將開始在我們為您提供的光纖基礎上的一些寬帶號碼上看到的情況。

As we move forward here over time, the next 1/3 becomes the opportunity.

隨著我們隨著時間的推移在這裡前進，下一個 1/3 成為機會。

And we're into that -- the middle innings of the game, if you want.

如果你願意，我們會參與其中 - 比賽的中局。

It's the next 30% to 60% of the customer base that we can work our way through, and you look at the economics around it, it makes sense.

下一個 30% 到 60% 的客戶群是我們可以通過自己的方式解決的，你看看它周圍的經濟學，這是有道理的。

Then you get into that last 1/3, and it's always the hardest part.

然後你進入最後的 1/3，它總是最難的部分。

And I mean in many instances, you're still sitting with the last 1/3 that, in parts of the rural America, that still really don't have effective broadband options.

我的意思是，在許多情況下，你仍然坐在最後 1/3 的地方，在美國農村的部分地區，仍然沒有有效的寬帶選擇。

And oftentimes, it's policy.

很多時候，這是政策。

Sometimes it's a technology breakthrough that gets that last 1/3.

有時，這是一項技術突破，可以達到最後 1/3。

And I would tell you right now, if you wanted me to prognosticate, are you going to build fiber to that last 1/3?

我現在就告訴你，如果你想讓我預測，你會建造最後 1/3 的光纖嗎？

I don't think I'd want to prognosticate that, that's a place that we're likely to go in the near term, absent some kind of major subsidy construct that comes into place.

我不認為我想預測，這是我們可能在短期內去的地方，沒有某種主要的補貼結構到位。

I actually believe, candidly, even if there was subsidy put in, it would be a better use of taxpayer money to do something that was more hybrid-oriented than the technologies that are applied and not exclusively lean on fiber in that space.

坦率地說，我實際上相信，即使有補貼，也可以更好地利用納稅人的錢來做一些比所應用的技術更加面向混合的事情，而不是在那個領域完全依賴光纖。

But we're several innings out from that actually coming to pass, and we'll have time to work through it.

但是我們距離實際發生的事情還有幾局，我們將有時間解決它。

Right now, we're working in the middle innings of the game, and the next 30% of the customer base is where our focus is at.

現在，我們正處於遊戲的中間階段，接下來 30% 的客戶群是我們關注的重點。

And as I shared with you on the previous call, it's 2 million this year.

正如我在上次電話會議中與您分享的那樣，今年是 200 萬。

If the team executes well, we can do more than 2 million and start to ramp that up.

如果團隊執行良好，我們可以做超過 200 萬並開始增加。

And when we demonstrate to the investor base that we're getting the kind of returns that you all like, then you should cheer us on to do that and be very supportive of us moving down that path.

當我們向投資者群體證明我們正在獲得你們都喜歡的那種回報時，那麼你們應該為我們加油，並非常支持我們沿著這條道路前進。

And it's my intent to characterize that and show that to you.

我的意圖是描述這一點並向你展示。

In terms of how I think about the wireless and fixed base, I've got maybe a little different view on this, and I'll maybe step back and think about it from a macro level.

至於我對無線和固定基站的看法，我可能對此有一些不同的看法，我可能會退後一步，從宏觀層面考慮。

If you go back and you look at consumption that's occurred in customer bases, whether it be wireless-centric, data use or fixed-centric data use, they've all been growing.

如果你回頭看看客戶群中發生的消費，無論是以無線為中心、數據使用還是以固定為中心的數據使用，它們都在增長。

And they grow at a pretty consistent level.

而且它們的增長水平相當一致。

And if you go and you talk to experts around consumer behavior over the next 10 years and you look at what's going on inside the household of -- for example, just one major trend of people moving away from what used to be broadcast or multicast streams efficiently delivered to unicast streams, discrete streams to one device.

如果你去和專家討論未來 10 年的消費者行為，然後看看家庭內部發生了什麼——例如，人們遠離過去的廣播或多播流的一個主要趨勢有效地傳送到單播流，離散流傳送到一個設備。

And you just look at what's happening in consumer behavior over that, there is a substantial amount of video traffic to be moved to unicast.

你只要看看消費者行為中發生的事情，就會有大量的視頻流量被轉移到單播。

It's going to drive up a massive amount of consumption.

這將推動大量消費。

And this ratio between mobile and fixed consumption has been about 10:1 for many years.

而這個移動消費和固定消費的比例多年來一直在10:1左右。

This is not new.

這並不新鮮。

And I got to -- I believe that, that ratio, it may not be perfectly 10:1, but there's still going to be a pretty consistent gap between mobile and fixed consumption.

我必須——我相信，這個比例可能不是完美的 10:1，但移動和固定消費之間仍然存在相當一致的差距。

In other words, there's still a lot of traffic to be moved, given consumer shifts and how they're using products and services.

換句話說，考慮到消費者的轉變以及他們使用產品和服務的方式，仍有大量流量需要轉移。

And so as I sit back and think about things, I think about hybrid access technologies as being important.

因此，當我坐下來思考問題時，我認為混合訪問技術很重要。

But I don't know that the most ideal way to build a network is going to be to use fixed wireless to take on the bulk of what occurs in the 4 walls of a business or a home, given the consumer behavior trends we're going to see over the next 10 years.

但我不知道構建網絡的最理想方式是使用固定無線來承擔企業或家庭的 4 面牆中發生的大部分事情，因為我們正在考慮消費者行為趨勢在接下來的 10 年裡會看到。

And I think still having a very dense and rich fiber infrastructure is going to be necessary to be an effective network provider over time.

而且我認為，隨著時間的推移，仍然需要擁有非常密集和豐富的光纖基礎設施，才能成為有效的網絡提供商。

Now it doesn't mean there won't be some segments of the population -- and my son, who lives on his own in an apartment in a metro urban area that might actually be an individual that could work on an all-wireless portion of his life in his 20s when he's independent and single and in a single-dwelling unit household.

現在這並不意味著不會有部分人口——還有我的兒子，他獨自住在地鐵市區的公寓裡，他實際上可能是一個可以在全無線部分工作的人他 20 多歲時的生活，當時他是獨立的，單身，在一個單一的住宅單元家庭中。

And maybe that's a little bit different surrogate arrangement that has a wireless tail on it or is a robust wireless LAN inside of a managed dwelling unit.

也許這是一個有點不同的替代安排，它上面有一個無線尾部，或者是一個託管住宅單元內的強大無線 LAN。

But I still think reach and penetration of fiber is going to be important as we move forward.

但我仍然認為，隨著我們向前發展，光纖的覆蓋範圍和滲透率將變得很重要。

John, the only thing I'd add in your putting a fence around this issue, John made this comment earlier, it's really important.

約翰，我唯一要補充的是你在這個問題周圍設置了圍欄，約翰早些時候發表了這個評論，這真的很重要。

We have fiber to the neighborhood in many, many locations, and taking fiber-to-the-home is the second step.

我們在很多很多地方都有光纖到附近，而將光纖入戶是第二步。

We haven't done that yet.

我們還沒有這樣做。

So if you think about our VDSL, if you think about our new greenfield builds, if you think about the neighborhoods next to the VDSL or in respect to where we've got fiber the prem, those are the opportunities.

因此，如果您考慮我們的 VDSL，如果您考慮我們新的新建項目，如果您考慮 VDSL 旁邊的社區，或者考慮到我們有光纖的地方，這些就是機會。

And that VDSL footprint is 35 million.

VDSL 的足跡是 3500 萬。

And when you add the fiber to it, it's greater than that.

當你向其中添加纖維時，它會更大。

That will give you kind of a framework for something that we could efficiently do.

這將為您提供一種我們可以有效做的事情的框架。

Just what John said about building out the 2 million this year, that's where a lot of the focus is going to be.

正如約翰所說的今年要增加 200 萬台，這將是很多重點。

So I think of that as the way to think about the opportunity for us.

所以我認為這是為我們考慮機會的方式。

And yes, we have that ability.

是的，我們有這種能力。

We need to continue the sales momentum.

我們需要繼續保持銷售勢頭。

That's going to be really critically important to make it work.

要讓它發揮作用，這將是非常重要的。

But in line with that, that's, I think, a focus of easy capability for us.

但與此一致，我認為這對我們來說是一個簡單的能力重點。

Your next question comes from the line of Frank Louthan from Raymond James.

您的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Frank Louthan。

Great.

偉大的。

Can you comment on any potential regulatory changes with Title II potentially coming back over the next 12 months?

您能否評論任何潛在的監管變化，Title II 可能會在未來 12 個月內回歸？

And can you give us a little bit more detail on -- as far as the fiber-to-the-home, you say you're doing another 2 million homes this year.

您能否給我們提供更多詳細信息 - 就光纖到戶而言，您說您今年將再建 200 萬個家庭。

To what extent can we expect that to continue at that sort of pace?

我們可以在多大程度上期望以這種速度繼續下去？

Or is that just sort of a year-by-year kind of a decision?

或者這只是一種逐年的決定？

So I said in the neighborhood of 2 million homes.

所以我說在 200 萬個家庭附近。

I would tell you that, as I just said, Frank, I want to be able to demonstrate to you that, that 2 million pace is a no-brainer and a slam dunk and a great value driver for our business and a great subscriber count driver for our business.

我會告訴你，正如我剛才所說的，弗蘭克，我希望能夠向你證明，200 萬的速度是不費吹灰之力的，是一個扣籃，是我們業務的巨大價值驅動力和大量訂閱者我們業務的驅動力。

And I think this business can build more than 2 million a year in a very profitable fashion.

而且我認為這項業務每年可以以非常有利可圖的方式建立超過 200 萬的業務。

But we're going to demonstrate to you we can do that, and then we'll come back to you and tell you about what that rate is.

但是我們將向您展示我們可以做到這一點，然後我們會回過頭來告訴您該比率是多少。

So if we execute well, when the management team execute well, do I expect that I'll be back talking to you about a '22 build that maybe leans in heavily to that?

因此，如果我們執行得很好，當管理團隊執行得很好時，我是否希望我會回來與您談論可能嚴重依賴於此的 '22 構建？

That's what I'd like to see the management team step up to and be able to work its way through.

這就是我希望看到管理團隊挺身而出並能夠順利完成的事情。

The -- where I think -- I'm sorry, the first part of your question?

- 我認為 - 對不起，你問題的第一部分？

Title II.

標題二。

Oh, Title II.

哦，標題二。

How can I forget?

我怎麼可以忘記？

Look, I think it's inevitable that we're now back into the wood-saw approach of a new administration.

看，我認為我們現在不可避免地要回到新政府的木鋸式方法中。

And a new belief that despite 4 years of not a single data point to suggest that we have a problem to solve, nobody blocking anybody, nobody throttling anybody, nobody bought -- doing anything inappropriate in terms of use of service and disclosing how they're offering services to customers, we're going to go through another regulatory bloodletting over this.

還有一種新的信念，即儘管 4 年來沒有一個數據點表明我們有問題要解決，但沒有人阻止任何人，沒有人限制任何人，沒有人購買——在服務使用方面做任何不恰當的事情並披露他們如何重新向客戶提供服務，我們將對此進行另一次監管放血。

I expect it to happen, and we're going to watch the cycle repeat itself.

我希望它會發生，我們將看到循環重演。

And one would hope at some point that there's a recent discussion around a policy that gets us away from this web sign and allows everybody to kind of have a more consistent and stable approach.

人們希望在某個時候，最近圍繞一項政策進行了討論，讓我們遠離這個網絡標誌，讓每個人都有一種更加一致和穩定的方法。

I don't know that, that's going to happen, but we're certainly going to try and push and discuss it.

我不知道，這會發生，但我們肯定會嘗試推動和討論它。

Where I think the third rail is on this issue is the dynamic around what happens to the freedom of people who invest in competitive markets to price their products and services appropriately.

我認為在這個問題上的第三條軌道是圍繞在競爭市場上投資以適當定價其產品和服務的人們的自由發生的動態。

And if we stay away from that third rail, if the kind of latitude is in there to be able to price and do the right things in the market where competitive markets exist, then I think everything will probably, at the end of the day, be okay.

如果我們遠離第三條軌道，如果存在那種能夠在存在競爭市場的市場中定價和做正確事情的自由度，那麼我認為一切都可能在一天結束時，沒關係。

But if for some reason, policy goes down a path where that isn't the case -- it hasn't in the past even when Title II is in place.

但是，如果由於某種原因，政策走上了一條並非如此的道路——即使在 Title II 到位時，過去也沒有。

We had the latitude to do what I felt like we needed to do.

我們有自由去做我覺得我們需要做的事情。

But if, for some reason, policy went further to try to solve a problem that doesn't exist, I have to step back and ask ourselves how we're allocating capital around that and evaluate where that comes out and ask if it's the right place for us to go for our shareholders based on that dynamic and that very important lever for us being taken away so -- or variable, I'd say, in the market, not lever.

但是，如果出於某種原因，政策進一步試圖解決一個不存在的問題，我必須退後一步，問問自己我們是如何圍繞這個問題分配資金的，評估結果是什麼，問它是否正確基於這種動態和非常重要的槓桿，我們為我們的股東去的地方被帶走了 - 或者我想說的是，在市場上，而不是槓桿。

So that's how I think about it right now.

所以這就是我現在的想法。

I actually step back and -- from a policy perspective, ironically, think about what's happened over the course of the last year or 2 and the dynamics that are going on right now where the issue is looking at metering and monitoring speech and what's occurring for people to access the platforms, that -- there are more real and significant data points in how that's affecting society than anything to do with how Internet service providers are delivering bandwidth in the homes.

我實際上退後一步 - 從政策的角度來看，具有諷刺意味的是，想想過去一兩年發生了什麼，以及目前正在發生的動態，問題在於計量和監控語音以及正在發生什麼人們訪問這些平台，關於它如何影響社會的真實和重要的數據點，而不是與互聯網服務提供商如何在家庭中提供帶寬有關的任何事情。

But I'll leave it to smarter people to meet and figure that one out.

但我會把它留給更聰明的人來見面並解決這個問題。

Frank, I think, we're -- the industry is real proud of what's happening in the course of the pandemic and the way we've allowed people to continue to work from home.

弗蘭克，我認為，我們為大流行期間發生的事情以及我們允許人們繼續在家工作的方式感到非常自豪。

I'm sure many of you are taking this call from home.

我敢肯定，你們中的許多人都在家裡接聽這個電話。

And the industries, the investments they've made under the prior regime is working.

而這些行業，他們在前政權下所做的投資正在發揮作用。

We're, as a company, more focused on broadband, not just to the availability because it's out there, but people is actually taking advantage of it for the home work situation, for others.

作為一家公司，我們更關注寬帶，不僅僅是因為它的可用性，而是人們實際上正在利用它來在家工作，為其他人。

And we're working on those aspects as well as following all the other aspects of a infrastructure bill, another stimulus bill, tax legislation.

我們正在研究這些方面，並遵循基礎設施法案、另一項刺激法案、稅收立法的所有其他方面。

We're following all those things, right?

我們正在關注所有這些事情，對吧？

So we'll continue to follow as closely as you can imagine.

因此，我們將繼續盡可能地密切關注。

Maybe Amir, we've got time for one more question.

也許阿米爾，我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Yes, we've got time for one last question, operator.

是的，我們有時間回答最後一個問題，接線員。

Okay.

好的。

That question comes from the line of Tim Horan from Oppenheimer.

這個問題來自奧本海默的蒂姆霍蘭。

John, I know you said the move to virtualization of content is kind of accelerating, and that seems to be happening with gaming, compute, even communications with Microsoft Teams and Zoom.

約翰，我知道你說過向內容虛擬化的轉變正在加速，這似乎正在發生在遊戲、計算，甚至與 Microsoft Teams 和 Zoom 的通信中。

How are you positioned to take advantage of that?

您如何利用這一優勢？

Are you better positioned as a company that owns the pipes and some of the content?

作為一家擁有管道和部分內容的公司，您是否能更好地定位？

Or do you think it makes more sense to separate these assets?

還是您認為將這些資產分開更有意義？

Or you're in a really unique seat.

或者你在一個非常獨特的座位上。

I mean how do you really take advantage of this accelerating move at this point?

我的意思是，此時您如何真正利用這一加速發展？

Tim, our biggest and single-most important bet in that regard is HBO Max.

蒂姆，我們在這方面最大和最重要的賭注是 HBO Max。

And I think about that broadly as, while today, we talk about it as an SVOD evolving to an AVOD offer.

我從廣義上考慮這一點，而今天，我們將其視為 SVOD 演變為 AVOD 產品。

I've mentioned this before, I view it as a really important foundation for broader customer relationships.

我之前提到過這一點，我認為它是更廣泛的客戶關係的一個非常重要的基礎。

I mean this is the first big foray of maybe legacy AT&T thinking about having broader relationships with the customer base at a relatively low price point SKU that isn't exclusively dependent on infrastructure.

我的意思是，這可能是傳統 AT&T 的第一次重大嘗試，它考慮以相對較低的 SKU 與客戶群建立更廣泛的關係，而 SKU 並不完全依賴於基礎設施。

And to the extent we are successful at having that relationship with most U.S. households, if we don't use that as an opportunity, as a springboard for us to start thinking about how we extend those customer relationships across other opportunities either to own and operate content or engagement with a customer or to use the platform as a means for others to distribute, we'd be losing a huge opportunity.

在某種程度上，我們成功地與大多數美國家庭建立了這種關係，如果我們不把它作為一個機會，作為我們開始思考如何將這些客戶關係擴展到擁有和經營其他機會的跳板內容或與客戶的互動或使用該平台作為其他人分發的手段，我們將失去一個巨大的機會。

And so I think, well, there's all kinds of things we want to do around the edge and making sure that we work with the right hyperscalers to virtualize and give our customers the opportunity to gain access into infrastructure so that they can run their compute environments and their application environments effectively.

所以我認為，嗯，我們想在邊緣做各種各樣的事情，並確保我們與合適的超大規模廠商合作進行虛擬化，並讓我們的客戶有機會訪問基礎設施，以便他們可以運行他們的計算環境及其應用環境有效。

That's all important, and that's all meat-and-potato stuff we need to do on a network.

這很重要，這就是我們需要在網絡上做的所有肉和土豆的事情。

But I think about owning some degree of engagement with the customer, a relationship, a means to build with them, having them interact with your service so that you have insights as to who they are, what they like, what they do, what their proclivities are, being able to emotionally attach with them, having a software platform that allows you to build the next building block of a product that extends into engagement, that talks about dynamics of changing consumption in social and interactive, I think this is a really important dynamic for the health of our business.

但我考慮與客戶建立某種程度的互動、建立關係、與他們建立聯繫的方式，讓他們與您的服務互動，以便您了解他們是誰、他們喜歡什麼、他們做什麼、他們做什麼傾向是，能夠在情感上與他們建立聯繫，擁有一個軟件平台，可以讓您構建產品的下一個構建塊，延伸到參與度，談論在社交和互動中改變消費的動態，我認為這是一個真正的對我們業務的健康發展至關重要的動力。

And I know it's longer term in nature.

而且我知道它本質上是長期的。

And I'm well aware of the folks who have maybe a tighter orientation to the financial return question.

我很清楚有些人可能對財務回報問題有更嚴格的定位。

Why would you be pushing as hard as you are in this area?

你為什麼要在這個領域像你一樣努力？

It's because I feel pretty strongly about that.

這是因為我對此感覺非常強烈。

And I think building large subscription bases of customers that pay us every month for something has been kind of the hallmark of this business.

而且我認為建立龐大的客戶訂閱群，每月向我們支付費用，這是這項業務的標誌。

We have a really attractive dynamic in that in our overall revenues and profitability today.

我們今天的整體收入和盈利能力具有非常有吸引力的動態。

We need to evolve that into what the next step is, and this is just one of those steps in making that happen.

我們需要將其演變為下一步，這只是實現這一目標的步驟之一。

Thanks very much, Tim.

非常感謝，蒂姆。

That's all the time for questions that we have.

這就是我們有問題的所有時間。

And with that, I want to turn it over to John Stankey for final comments.

有了這個，我想把它交給 John Stankey 來做最後的評論。

I have one last order of business before I let you go, and Dave kind of hinted at it with his compliment to John.

在我讓你走之前，我還有最後一件事要做，戴夫用他對約翰的讚美暗示了這一點。

I do want to point out that it's with very mixed emotions that we recognize that this is, I believe, John's 40th and last earnings call that he'll be doing with all of us.

我確實想指出，我們認識到這是約翰的第 40 次也是最後一次財報電話會議，他將與我們所有人一起進行，這是非常複雜的情緒。

And he's been a very valued and long-time coworker of mine.

他一直是我非常重視和長期合作的同事。

I think if you think about the fact that he sat in this role as CFO of this company for 9 years, that speaks volumes in and of itself about his character and abilities.

我認為，如果您考慮一下他擔任該公司首席財務官 9 年的事實，這本身就足以說明他的性格和能力。

That's a tremendous level of longevity for somebody who occupies a role as significant, as pressured and as dynamic as the one that he's had.

對於一個與他所擔任的角色一樣重要、壓力大和充滿活力的人來說，這是一個巨大的長壽水平。

I've worked with John for 23 years of his career, which has been a long time, and it's been a pleasure all along the way.

在約翰的職業生涯中，我與他共事了 23 年，這已經很長一段時間了，一路走來都很愉快。

I could say a lot of things.

我可以說很多話。

Obviously, high integrity, high impact, high functioning and incredibly high regard as a person.

顯然，高誠信、高影響力、高功能和令人難以置信的高度重視作為一個人。

We're going to miss him at AT&T.

我們會想念他在 AT&T 的。

I know you're going to miss him in support of all of you, but we're delighted about what lies ahead for him and his family and Michele in his next chapter and as you would expect, the professionalism in navigating the handoff to what's going to be a very capable successor.

我知道你會想念他以支持你們所有人，但我們對他和他的家人以及 Michele 在他的下一章中所面臨的一切感到高興，正如你所期望的那樣，在將交接過程中導航到什麼的專業精神將成為一個非常有能力的繼任者。

I'm just delighted to have Pascal coming in, and look forward to all of you getting to know him.

我很高興 Pascal 進來，並期待大家認識他。

It's gone incredibly smoothly.

它非常順利。

It's been first rate.

這是一流的。

And I think as we join you a quarter from now and Pascal takes the reins, you'll see what a nice, smooth and even-keeled transition that's been when we reconvene.

我認為，當我們在四分之一之後加入你們並由帕斯卡掌權時，你們會看到我們重新召開會議時的過渡是多麼美好、平穩和平穩。

So I hope you join me in giving best wishes to John in his next chapter, and thank him for everything you've done for us.

所以我希望你和我一起在約翰的下一章中向他致以最良好的祝愿，並感謝他為我們所做的一切。

Thank you, John.

謝謝你，約翰。

Thanks, John, and thanks for the kind words.

謝謝，約翰，謝謝你的客氣話。

Thanks to all the other members of the management team here who've been a family for me.

感謝這裡管理團隊的所有其他成員，他們一直是我的家人。

Specifically thanks to my team, the finance team, just remarkable people across the board.

特別感謝我的團隊，財務團隊，感謝所有傑出的人。

Pascal is going to do a great job, and you guys are going to be thrilled.

帕斯卡會做得很好，你們會很激動。

We're upgrading.

我們正在升級。

And I would tell you, I just want to wish everybody on the call good luck, God speed, stay safe.

我會告訴你，我只想祝大家好運，上帝保佑，保持安全。

And remember, don't text and drive.

請記住，不要發短信和開車。

Thank you all.

謝謝你們。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference for today.

女士們，先生們，今天的會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T Teleconference.

感謝您的參與和使用 AT&T 電話會議。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連接。