AT&T Inc (T) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to AT&T's Fourth Quarter 2021 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們，先生們，謝謝你們的支持。歡迎參加 AT&T 2021 年第四季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）

And as a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would like to turn the conference call over to our host, Amir Rozwadowski, Senior Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

作為提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。我想將電話會議轉交給我們的主持人，財務和投資者關係高級副總裁 Amir Rozwadowski。請繼續。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to our fourth quarter call. I'm Amir Rozwadowski, Head of Investor Relations for AT&T. Joining me on the call today are John Stankey, our CEO; and Pascal Desroches, our CFO.

謝謝大家，大家早上好。歡迎來到我們的第四季度電話會議。我是 AT&T 投資者關係主管 Amir Rozwadowski。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是我們的首席執行官 John Stankey；和我們的首席財務官 Pascal Desroches。

Before we begin, I need to call your attention to our safe harbor statement. It says that some of our comments today may be forward-looking. As such, they're subject to risks and uncertainties described in AT&T's SEC filings. Results may differ materially.

在我們開始之前，我需要提醒您注意我們的安全港聲明。它說我們今天的一些評論可能是前瞻性的。因此，它們受到 AT&T 提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中描述的風險和不確定性的影響。結果可能大不相同。

Additional information is available on the Investor Relations website. And as always, our earnings materials are on our website. In addition, the FCC Spectrum Auction 110 results have been announced, but we're still in the quiet period, so we're limited in what we can say.

投資者關係網站上提供了更多信息。和往常一樣，我們的收益材料在我們的網站上。此外，FCC Spectrum Auction 110 的結果已經公佈，但我們仍處於靜默期，所以我們能說的有限。

With that, I'll turn the call over to John Stankey. John?

有了這個，我會把電話轉給 John Stankey。約翰？

Thanks, Amir, and good morning, everyone. I hope you're all doing well, and a belated happy new year to all of you.

謝謝，阿米爾，大家早上好。我希望你們一切都好，祝大家新年快樂。

1.5 years ago, we began simplifying our business strategy to reposition AT&T for growth. As you can imagine, this was a significant undertaking requiring us to not only focus our operational efforts toward growing customers, but also doing so in a manner that set us up for an improved profit trajectory in the coming years.

1.5 年前，我們開始簡化業務戰略，重新定位 AT&T 以實現增長。正如您可以想像的那樣，這是一項重大的任務，要求我們不僅將我們的運營努力集中在不斷增長的客戶上，而且還要以一種為我們在未來幾年改善利潤軌蹟的方式這樣做。

Simultaneously, we took on the task of structuring our communications, video and media businesses in a manner that ensures their future success with the right capital structures, access to capital and most importantly, the ability to drive better returns in a manner consistent with their respective market opportunities. I'm pleased with the results our teams delivered last quarter, last year and for the last 6 quarters while this repositioning was underway.

同時，我們承擔了構建我們的通信、視頻和媒體業務的任務，以確保他們未來通過正確的資本結構、獲得資本的機會取得成功，最重要的是，能夠以與其各自相一致的方式獲得更好的回報。市場機會。我對我們的團隊在上個季度、去年和過去 6 個季度所交付的結果感到滿意，而這種重新定位正在進行中。

We finished last year with strong momentum in growing customer relationships, achieving outstanding yearly subscriber growth across Mobility, fiber and HBO Max. In Mobility, strong network performance and a consistent go-to-market strategy helped us lead the industry with about 3.2 million postpaid phone net adds. That's more customers than we added in the prior 10 years combined. We achieved this growth the right way with full year Mobility EBITDA up about $1 billion.

去年結束時，我們在發展客戶關係方面表現強勁，在移動、光纖和 HBO Max 方面實現了出色的年度用戶增長。在移動領域，強大的網絡性能和一致的市場戰略幫助我們以約 320 萬的後付費電話網絡增加量引領行業。這比我們在過去 10 年增加的客戶總和還要多。我們以正確的方式實現了這一增長，全年移動性 EBITDA 增加了約 10 億美元。

In fiber, we ended the year with a great build velocity, passing more than 2.6 million additional customer locations. We added more than 1 million fiber subscribers for the fourth consecutive year, and full year broadband revenues were up 6.5% as we returned our Consumer Wireline business to revenue growth.

在光纖方面，我們以極快的構建速度結束了這一年，通過了超過 260 萬個額外的客戶位置。我們連續第四年增加了超過 100 萬光纖用戶，全年寬帶收入增長了 6.5%，因為我們恢復了消費者有線業務的收入增長。

We also surpassed our high-end guidance for global HBO Max and HBO subscribers, adding 13.1 million subscribers in 2021, more than any year in HBO's history. HBO Max and HBO now reaches a base of 73.8 million subscribers globally. WarnerMedia is well positioned as a dynamic global business.

我們還超過了我們對全球 HBO Max 和 HBO 訂戶的高端指導，在 2021 年增加了 1310 萬訂戶，超過了 HBO 歷史上的任何一年。 HBO Max 和 HBO 現在在全球擁有 7380 萬用戶。 WarnerMedia 定位良好，是一家充滿活力的全球企業。

In addition to growing customer relationships, we also continue to make great progress in repositioning our operations to be more effective and efficient. We achieved more than half of our $6 billion cost savings run rate target, which we've reinvested into operations supporting our growth. This includes simplifying and enhancing our customer experience, which has resulted in higher customer self-service, lower customer churn and greatly improved mobility NPS and industry-leading fiber NPS.

除了發展客戶關係外，我們還在重新定位我們的運營以提高效率和效率方面繼續取得重大進展。我們實現了 60 億美元的成本節約運行率目標的一半以上，我們已將其重新投資於支持我們增長的運營。這包括簡化和增強我們的客戶體驗，從而提高客戶自助服務水平、降低客戶流失率，並大大提高移動 NPS 和行業領先的光纖 NPS。

We also continue to rationalize our low-margin Business Wireline services as we reinvest savings into segments that support improving returns. And you're familiar with the significant steps we've taken to reposition the company's assets for future success from our U.S. video assets in Vrio to our pending WarnerMedia transaction. Together, these and other asset monetizations will generate more than $50 billion, and AT&T shareholders will own 71% of one of the world's foremost media companies in the new Warner Bros. Discovery at close.

隨著我們將儲蓄再投資於支持提高回報的細分市場，我們還將繼續合理化我們的低利潤商業有線服務。您熟悉我們為重新定位公司資產以實現未來成功所採取的重要步驟，從我們在 Vrio 的美國視頻資產到我們未決的 WarnerMedia 交易。這些資產貨幣化以及其他資產貨幣化將產生超過 500 億美元的收益，AT&T 的股東將在新的華納兄弟探索公司中擁有世界上最重要的媒體公司之一 71% 的股份。

We also continue to generate meaningful levels of free cash flow, nearly $27 billion in 2021, a number we feel good about when looking at our business after the WarnerMedia transaction. So to summarize, we did what we said we were going to do last year. I'm really proud of what our team has accomplished, and we're very pleased with the momentum we have.

我們還繼續產生有意義的自由現金流水平，到 2021 年接近 270 億美元，在華納媒體交易後我們對我們的業務感到滿意。總而言之，我們做了我們去年說要做的事情。我為我們團隊所取得的成就感到非常自豪，我們對我們所擁有的勢頭感到非常滿意。

Turning the page to this year, we'll be consistent in focusing on these same 3 operational and business priorities. Now that our asset disposition initiatives are largely complete, I expect we'll take our execution to the next level.

翻到今年，我們將始終如一地關注這三個相同的運營和業務優先事項。既然我們的資產處置計劃已基本完成，我預計我們將把我們的執行提升到一個新的水平。

To that end, we're encouraged with how the process for the WarnerMedia deal is progressing and now expect the transaction to close in the second quarter. Going forward, we aim to be America's best broadband provider powered by 5G and fiber and defined by greater ubiquity, reliability, capacity and speed.

為此，我們對 WarnerMedia 交易的進展感到鼓舞，現在預計交易將在第二季度完成。展望未來，我們的目標是成為美國最好的寬帶提供商，由 5G 和光纖提供支持，並以更高的普遍性、可靠性、容量和速度為特徵。

We're confident we can achieve that because in wireless, our focus will be continuing our subscriber momentum while increasing the pace of our 5G deployment. We're confident in our ability to compete with 5G and our disciplined approach to selectively targeting and taking share in underpenetrated segments of the consumer and business marketplace.

我們有信心實現這一目標，因為在無線領域，我們的重點將是繼續保持我們的用戶勢頭，同時加快 5G 部署的步伐。我們對我們與 5G 競爭的能力以及我們有選擇地瞄準消費者和商業市場中滲透不足的細分市場並在其中佔有份額的嚴謹方法充滿信心。

While we're still in the quiet period, I can share that we're very pleased with the results of Spectrum Auction 110. We received 40 megahertz of quality mid-band spectrum that we can begin to put into service this year, and we plan to efficiently deploy it with our C-band spectrum using just one tower climb.

雖然我們仍處於平靜期，但我可以分享我們對 Spectrum Auction 110 的結果感到非常滿意。我們收到了 40 兆赫的優質中頻頻譜，我們可以在今年開始投入使用，我們計劃使用我們的 C 波段頻譜有效地部署它，只需一次爬塔。

We're on track to cover 200 million [POPs] using mid-band spectrum by the end of 2023. And our network is only going to get better as we effectively deploy our new spectrum holdings.

到 2023 年底，我們有望使用中頻段頻譜覆蓋 2 億個 [POPs]。隨著我們有效部署新的頻譜資產，我們的網絡只會變得更好。

In wired broadband, we have the fastest-growing fiber network and expect to capitalize on the expansion of our fiber footprint and accelerate subscriber growth. The best-in-class experience we provide is getting even better with our multi-gig rollout, which brings the fastest Internet to AT&T fiber customers with symmetrical 2-gig and 5-gig speed tiers. This will truly differentiate how our customers experience the Internet.

在有線寬帶領域，我們擁有增長最快的光纖網絡，並期望利用我們光纖覆蓋範圍的擴大並加速用戶增長。我們提供的一流體驗隨著我們的多千兆部署而變得更加出色，它以對稱的 2 千兆和 5 千兆速度等級為 AT&T 光纖客戶帶來最快的互聯網。這將真正區分我們的客戶體驗互聯網的方式。

Coming off an outstanding year with HBO Max, we plan to hand off the business with a strong exit velocity, and we look to further our international momentum and deliver more world-class content for viewers. When the deal closes, the investments made in both content and HBO Max growth, coupled with strong execution by the team, will ensure Warner Bros. Discovery is positioned as a leading global media company with the depth of content and the capabilities required to lead in the next era of media.

在 HBO Max 度過了輝煌的一年之後，我們計劃以強勁的退出速度交付業務，我們希望進一步推動我們的國際發展勢頭，為觀眾提供更多世界級的內容。交易完成後，對內容和 HBO Max 增長的投資，再加上團隊的強大執行力，將確保華納兄弟探索公司被定位為全球領先的媒體公司，擁有豐富的內容和領先所需的能力下一個媒體時代。

As we expand our customer base, we'll continue to responsibly remove costs from the business. We have a clear line of sight to achieving more than 2/3 of our $6 billion cost savings run rate target by the end of this year. And importantly, we expect the CD savings start to fall to our bottom line beginning in the back half of the year.

隨著我們擴大客戶群，我們將繼續負責任地降低業務成本。我們有明確的目標，到今年年底實現 60 億美元成本節約運行率目標的 2/3 以上。重要的是，我們預計從今年下半年開始，CD 節省的資金將開始下降到我們的底線。

Our increased ability to reinvest in our business will fuel growth and allow us to deliver an even better customer experience as we further improve NPS and sustain low churn levels. As we expand our fiber reach, we'll be orienting our business portfolio to leverage this opportunity and stabilize our Business Wireline unit by growing connectivity with small to midsized businesses.

隨著我們進一步提高 NPS 和維持低流失率水平，我們對業務再投資的能力增強將推動增長，並使我們能夠提供更好的客戶體驗。隨著我們擴大光纖覆蓋範圍，我們將調整我們的業務組合以利用這一機會並通過增加與中小型企業的連接來穩定我們的商業有線部門。

We also plan to use our strong fiber and wireless asset base, broad distribution and converged product offers to strengthen our overall market position. We're now at the dawn of a new age of connectivity where customers want more consolidated and integrated offers, and we're well positioned to meet that demand.

我們還計劃利用我們強大的光纖和無線資產基礎、廣泛的分銷和融合產品來加強我們的整體市場地位。我們現在處於連接新時代的曙光，客戶希望獲得更多整合和集成的服務，我們已做好滿足這一需求的準備。

Our 5G network is already the best and most reliable. And it will be enhanced by our accelerated fiber expansion in 5G spectrum deployment, a great reputation for advanced and reliable networking and our expertise to bring it all together for the customer.

我們的 5G 網絡已經是最好和最可靠的。我們在 5G 頻譜部署中加速光纖擴展、在先進和可靠的網絡方面享有盛譽，以及我們為客戶將這一切整合在一起的專業知識，都將加強這一點。

We remain laser-focused on reducing debt, and we'll strengthen our balance sheet by using proceeds from the WarnerMedia transaction to achieve a 2.5x net debt to adjusted EBITDA by the end of 2023. We also expect to remain a top dividend-paying company after deal close, with a dividend payout in the $8 billion to $9 billion range where anywhere in that range should rank us among the best dividend yields in corporate America.

我們仍然專注於減少債務，我們將通過使用 WarnerMedia 交易的收益來加強我們的資產負債表，到 2023 年底實現調整後 EBITDA 的 2.5 倍淨債務。我們還預計將保持最高的股息支付交易完成後的公司，股息支付在 80 億美元到 90 億美元之間，在這個範圍內的任何地方都應該使我們躋身美國企業界最佳股息收益率之列。

We're now in the middle innings of our transformation, and the momentum we have is real and sustainable. We're well positioned post deal close to have a capital structure and balance sheet that puts us in an attractive position relative to our peers.

我們現在正處於轉型的中間階段，我們擁有的勢頭是真實且可持續的。我們在交易結束後處於有利地位，擁有資本結構和資產負債表，使我們相對於同行處於有吸引力的位置。

In addition, we believe it provides us with the financial flexibility to invest significantly in our business and the flexibility to pursue additional shareholder value creation initiatives over time. We look forward to giving you more detail at our virtual analyst event, which we expect to host in March.

此外，我們相信它為我們提供了對我們的業務進行大量投資的財務靈活性，以及隨著時間的推移追求額外的股東價值創造計劃的靈活性。我們期待在預計於 3 月舉辦的虛擬分析師活動中為您提供更多詳細信息。

Now I'll turn it over to Pascal. Pascal?

現在我將把它交給帕斯卡。帕斯卡？

Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us. Slide 6 should look familiar. As our pre-release earlier this month already indicated, we continue to deliver growth in postpaid phones, fiber and HBO Max.

謝謝你，約翰，大家早上好。感謝您加入我們。幻燈片 6 應該看起來很熟悉。正如我們本月早些時候的預發布已經表明的那樣，我們繼續在後付費電話、光纖和 HBO Max 方面實現增長。

John just highlighted our full year results. We're really pleased with them and expect the momentum we've built in 2021 to carry over to 2022.

約翰剛剛強調了我們的全年業績。我們對他們感到非常滿意，並希望我們在 2021 年建立的勢頭能夠延續到 2022 年。

Let's now take a look at our financial summary on Slide 7, starting with revenues. On a comparable basis, excluding DIRECTV and Vrio from both periods, consolidated revenues were up more than 4% for the quarter and about 6% for the year, thanks to growth in our market focus areas. Adjusted EBITDA was down 8% for the quarter on a comparable basis. Growth in mobility was more than offset by a decline at WarnerMedia from the increased HBO Max investment, the new DIRECTV advertising channel arrangements and lower contribution from basic networks.

現在讓我們看一下幻燈片 7 上的財務摘要，從收入開始。在可比的基礎上，不包括兩個時期的 DIRECTV 和 Vrio，由於我們的市場重點領域的增長，本季度的綜合收入增長了 4% 以上，全年增長了約 6%。在可比基礎上，本季度調整後的 EBITDA 下降了 8%。移動性的增長被華納媒體的下降所抵消，原因是 HBO Max 投資增加、新的 DIRECTV 廣告頻道安排以及基礎網絡的貢獻下降。

Our consolidated operating income results continue to be impacted by certain retained costs from DIRECTV that are in the process of being rationalized. Apart from WarnerMedia's contributions, our Communications segment EBITDA was up approximately 2% for the quarter.

我們的綜合營業收入結果繼續受到正在合理化的 DIRECTV 的某些保留成本的影響。除了華納媒體的貢獻外，我們的通信部門 EBITDA 本季度增長了約 2%。

Adjusted EPS for the quarter was $0.78. In addition to merger amortization, adjustments for the quarter were made to exclude our proportionate share of DIRECTV intangible amortization and a gain in our benefit plan. For the year, EPS was up nearly 7% with strong organic growth in mobility, lower interest, lower benefit costs and higher investment gains.

本季度調整後的每股收益為 0.78 美元。除了合併攤銷外，還對本季度進行了調整，以排除我們在 DIRECTV 無形攤銷中的比例份額和我們的福利計劃中的收益。全年每股收益增長近 7%，流動性有機增長強勁、利息降低、福利成本降低和投資收益增加。

We exceeded our free cash flow guidance for the year. For the quarter, cash from operations was $11.3 billion, spending increase year-over-year with CapEx of $3.8 billion and gross capital investments totaling $4.9 billion. Free cash flow for the quarter was $8.7 billion even with a year-over-year increase of $1.4 billion in CapEx.

我們超過了今年的自由現金流指導。本季度，運營現金為 113 億美元，支出同比增長，資本支出為 38 億美元，資本投資總額為 49 億美元。本季度的自由現金流為 87 億美元，即使資本支出同比增長 14 億美元。

For the full year, free cash flow was $26.8 billion despite an increase in CapEx of about $900 million and more than $4 billion in higher cash content costs. Our total dividend payout ratio was about 56%. This included cash distributions from DIRECTV of $1.9 billion.

儘管資本支出增加約 9 億美元，現金內容成本增加超過 40 億美元，但全年自由現金流為 268 億美元。我們的總派息率約為 56%。這包括來自 DIRECTV 的 19 億美元現金分配。

Let's now look at our segment operating results, starting with our Communication business on Slide 8. For the second consecutive quarter, our Communications segment grew both revenues and EBITDA. A big part of that growth was driven by our increasing strength in mobility, which turned in another solid quarter.

現在讓我們看看我們的部門經營業績，從幻燈片 8 上的通信業務開始。連續第二個季度，我們的通信部門的收入和 EBITDA 均實現增長。這一增長的很大一部分是由我們在流動性方面不斷增強的實力推動的，這又是一個穩健的季度。

Service revenues were up 4.6% for the quarter and 3.7% for the year driven by postpaid and prepaid subscriber gains. Postpaid phone churn continues to run at low levels and in fact, hit a record low for the full year.

在後付費和預付費用戶收益的推動下，本季度服務收入增長了 4.6%，全年增長了 3.7%。後付費電話流失率繼續保持在低水平，事實上，全年創下歷史新低。

Our strong subscriber momentum continues with industry-leading postpaid phone growth. Prepaid also continues to deliver impressive results with phone churn less than 3% and revenues up mid-single digits. Cricket momentum continues with strong ad and phone churn substantially lower than 3%.

隨著行業領先的後付費電話增長，我們強勁的用戶勢頭繼續保持。預付費還繼續提供令人印象深刻的結果，電話流失率低於 3%，收入達到中個位數。板球勢頭繼續強勁，廣告和電話流失率大大低於 3%。

Mobility EBITDA was up more than $300 million driven by growth in service revenues and transformation savings. This growth comes without a material return to international roaming and with 3G shutdown costs of about $130 million during the quarter. We remain on track to successfully shut down our 3G network next month and expect 3G shutdown impacts to peak in the first quarter of 2022 at about $250 million.

在服務收入增長和轉型節省的推動下，移動性 EBITDA 增長了 3 億多美元。這一增長並未帶來國際漫遊的實質性回報，並且本季度的 3G 關閉成本約為 1.3 億美元。我們仍有望在下個月成功關閉我們的 3G 網絡，並預計 3G 關閉影響將在 2022 年第一季度達到峰值，約為 2.5 億美元。

In addition, we expect another $100 million of expense in the first quarter associated with investment in our FirstNet operations and the completion of support funding for the CAF II program.

此外，我們預計第一季度還有 1 億美元的費用與投資 FirstNet 業務和完成對 CAF II 計劃的支持資金有關。

Business Wireline EBITDA margins continue to be stable as we rationalize our portfolio of low-margin products. In fact, margins were up 50 basis points year-over-year, thanks to our transformation process. This rationalization process will continue in 2022. And as we lap the beginning of this process, we should see improving revenue trends in Business Wireline in the latter part of 2022.

隨著我們合理化我們的低利潤率產品組合，BusinessWireline EBITDA 利潤率繼續保持穩定。事實上，由於我們的轉型過程，利潤率同比增長了 50 個基點。這一合理化過程將在 2022 年繼續進行。隨著這一過程的開始，我們應該會看到 Business Wireline 的收入趨勢在 2022 年下半年有所改善。

We believe we're really well positioned in the enterprise space. And there is an interesting dynamic as public and private networking stock (inaudible). We have the account management infrastructure, the consulting expertise and the capabilities to support those businesses through that evolution as converged wireline and wireless solutions become the norm. At the same time, we're energized by the opportunities that our fiber expansion creates in the small to midsized business segment, and we plan to be more active there going forward.

我們相信我們在企業領域確實處於有利地位。並且有一個有趣的動態作為公共和私人網絡股票（聽不清）。隨著有線和無線融合解決方案成為常態，我們擁有賬戶管理基礎設施、諮詢專業知識和支持這些業務發展的能力。與此同時，我們的光纖擴張在中小型企業領域創造的機會讓我們充滿活力，我們計劃在未來更加積極。

Turning to Consumer Wireline. Our fiber customer growth and fiber network expansion continues. And we continue to win share wherever we have fiber. We added 271,000 fiber customers even in a traditionally slow fourth quarter, and our fiber network continues to get even better with our new multi-gig speeds for AT&T fiber.

轉向消費者有線。我們的光纖客戶增長和光纖網絡擴展仍在繼續。我們在有光纖的地方繼續贏得份額。即使在傳統上緩慢的第四季度，我們也增加了 271,000 名光纖客戶，並且我們的光纖網絡通過我們新的 AT&T 光纖多千兆速度繼續變得更好。

Driven by our strength in fiber, total Consumer Wireline revenues were up for the third consecutive quarter. We had sequential EBITDA growth in the fourth quarter. Segment EBITDA did decline year-over-year due to a onetime pandemic-related benefit in last year's fourth quarter and higher network costs, including storms in the quarter.

在我們在光纖方面的實力的推動下，消費者有線總收入連續第三個季度增長。我們在第四季度實現了 EBITDA 連續增長。由於去年第四季度與大流行相關的一次性收益以及更高的網絡成本（包括該季度的風暴），分部 EBITDA 確實同比下降。

Let's move to WarnerMedia's results, which are on Slide 9. WarnerMedia revenues were up 15.4%, led by strong content licensing and D2C growth. D2C subscription revenues grew 11%, reflecting continued success of HBO Max, partially offset by lower wholesale revenues related to the termination of our arrangement with Amazon at the end of the third quarter.

讓我們來看一下幻燈片 9 上的 WarnerMedia 的結果。WarnerMedia 的收入增長了 15.4%，這得益於強勁的內容許可和 D2C 增長。 D2C 訂閱收入增長 11%，反映了 HBO Max 的持續成功，部分被與第三季度末終止與亞馬遜的安排相關的批發收入下降所抵消。

Content and other revenues were up 45%, reflecting higher TV licensing and theatrical releases. Advertising revenues were down about 13% primarily due to lower audiences with tough comparison to the political environment in last year's fourth quarter.

內容和其他收入增長了 45%，反映了更高的電視許可和戲劇發行。廣告收入下降約 13%，主要是由於與去年第四季度的政治環境相比，觀眾人數減少。

Costs were up year-over-year due to a significant increase in programming and marketing, including the international launch costs for HBO Max. Incremental HBO Max investments for the quarter was approximately $500 million.

由於節目和營銷的顯著增加，包括 HBO Max 的國際發行成本，成本同比上升。本季度 HBO Max 的增量投資約為 5 億美元。

The fourth quarter also included the impact of about $380 million in DIRECTV advertising revenue sharing cost. We also launched some incredible content in the fourth quarter, including the premiere of the hit series And Just Like That and the third season of Succession. With the production team operating close to full throttle, we expect peak content investment in 2022 with an even stronger release schedule, including Batman, Winning Time: The Rise of Lakers Dynasty and the highly anticipated Game of Thrones prequel House of the Dragon.

第四季度還包括約 3.8 億美元的 DIRECTV 廣告收入分成成本的影響。我們還在第四季度推出了一些令人難以置信的內容，包括熱播劇 And Just Like That 的首映和《Succession》的第三季。隨著製作團隊接近全速運轉，我們預計 2022 年的內容投資將達到峰值，並且發佈時間表會更加強勁，包括蝙蝠俠、勝利時間：湖人王朝的崛起和備受期待的《權力的遊戲》前傳《龍之屋》。

Now let's look at our 2022 guidance on Slide 11. What we're showing you today is a full year view of our consolidated revenue outlook excluding DIRECTV and Vrio from both periods. Our outlook does include a full year of expected results for WarnerMedia and Xandr. We also included our full year expectation for WarnerMedia's stand-alone contribution to help you model post close.

現在讓我們看看我們在幻燈片 11 上的 2022 年指導。我們今天向您展示的是我們綜合收入前景的全年視圖，不包括兩個時期的 DIRECTV 和 Vrio。我們的展望確實包括 WarnerMedia 和 Xandr 的全年預期結果。我們還包括了我們對 WarnerMedia 的獨立貢獻的全年期望，以幫助您模擬後期關閉。

We now expect the WarnerMedia Discovery transaction to close in the second quarter. Given this, we plan to update guidance for Remainco at our upcoming virtual analyst event in March. Until then, let me walk you through our expectations for the year.

我們現在預計 WarnerMedia Discovery 交易將在第二季度完成。鑑於此，我們計劃在 3 月即將舉行的虛擬分析師活動中更新 Remainco 的指導。在那之前，讓我帶您了解我們對這一年的期望。

First, we expect consolidated revenue growth in the low single-digit range with wireless service revenue growth of about 3% plus for the full year. Mobility EBITDA is expected to grow low single digits plus over the course of the year as we continue to take disciplined share of subscribers with attractive long-term value.

首先，我們預計全年的綜合收入增長將在低個位數範圍內，無線服務收入增長約 3% 以上。隨著我們繼續在具有吸引力的長期價值的用戶中獲得嚴格的份額，預計移動性 EBITDA 將在一年內增長到個位數以上。

As noted earlier, several onetime related impacts such as peaking 3G network shutdown costs are expected to impact year-over-year EBITDA trends in the first quarter. Consumer Wireline revenues and EBITDA are expected to grow on improving fiber subscriber trends. However, we expect front-end loaded investments to impact first quarter year-over-year EBITDA trends as we ramp up promotional efforts around our new multi-gig offering.

如前所述，預計 3G 網絡關閉成本達到峰值等幾個一次性相關影響將影響第一季度的 EBITDA 同比趨勢。消費者有線收入和 EBITDA 預計將隨著光纖用戶趨勢的改善而增長。然而，隨著我們圍繞新的多演出產品加大促銷力度，我們預計前端負載投資將影響第一季度的 EBITDA 同比趨勢。

As noted earlier, we expect year-over-year comparison pressures to ease in our Business Wireline segment through the course of the year. However, we expect product rationalization to peak in the first quarter, resulting in more pronounced margin pressures in the first part of the year before recovering in the back half of the year.

如前所述，我們預計今年我們的商業有線部門的同比壓力將有所緩解。然而，我們預計產品合理化將在第一季度達到頂峰，導致今年上半年利潤率壓力更加明顯，然後在下半年恢復。

Consolidated adjusted EPS is expected to be in the $3.10 to $3.15 range. This guidance reflects WarnerMedia's declining contributions due to anticipated investment initiatives, a 200 basis point increase in our effective tax rate and no anticipated investment gains. We also expect adjusted equity income contributions from DIRECTV to be about $3 billion for the year. Look for more details on our earnings outlook during our upcoming virtual analyst event.

合併調整後的每股收益預計在 3.10 美元至 3.15 美元之間。該指引反映了 WarnerMedia 由於預期的投資舉措、我們的有效稅率增加 200 個基點以及沒有預期的投資收益而導致的貢獻下降。我們還預計今年 DIRECTV 的調整後股權收入貢獻約為 30 億美元。在我們即將舉行的虛擬分析師活動中尋找有關我們盈利前景的更多詳細信息。

Gross capital investment is expected to be in the $24 billion range and capital expenditures in the $20 billion range. Free cash flow is expected to be in the $23 billion range. That includes expected DIRECTV cash distribution of approximately $4 billion and $2 billion in higher expected cash taxes in 2022, reflecting the expiration of the immediate expensing of R&D and lower limitations on interest expense deductions starting this year.

總資本投資預計在 240 億美元範圍內，資本支出在 200 億美元範圍內。自由現金流預計將在 230 億美元範圍內。這包括預計的 DIRECTV 現金分配約 40 億美元和 2022 年預計增加的 20 億美元現金稅，這反映了從今年開始的研發費用立即到期和利息費用扣除的限制降低。

We expect WarnerMedia's full year contributions when including Xandr to be: revenues in the $37 billion to $39 billion range; EBITDA in the $6 billion to $7 billion range and free cash flow contribution of approximately $3 billion as we expect 2022 to be the peak investment year for HBO Max.

我們預計華納媒體在包括 Xandr 在內的全年貢獻為： 收入在 370 億美元至 390 億美元之間； EBITDA 在 60 億至 70 億美元之間，自由現金流貢獻約為 30 億美元，因為我們預計 2022 年將是 HBO Max 的投資高峰年。

Amir, that's our presentation. We're now ready for the Q&A.

阿米爾，那是我們的介紹。我們現在準備好進行問答了。

Thank you, Pascal. Operator, we're ready to take the first question.

謝謝你，帕斯卡。接線員，我們準備回答第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

And our first question today comes from the line of Simon Flannery with Morgan Stanley.

我們今天的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Simon Flannery。

John, good to hear the updated timing on the deal close. Can you perhaps update us on your conversations with the regulators, and what gives you the confidence to move that up? And when do you expect to give us the clarity on how the deal will be structured, what the dividend policy will be? Is that going to be in the March meeting?

約翰，很高興聽到交易結束的最新時間。您能否向我們介紹您與監管機構的對話，以及是什麼讓您有信心推動這一進程？您希望什麼時候讓我們清楚交易的結構、股息政策是什麼？那會是在三月份的會議上嗎？

And then if you could just give us color on what we should be expecting with the CapEx this year. What's the 5G build-out this year? What's the fiber build-out this year? Any color there would be great.

然後，如果您能告訴我們今年我們對資本支出的預期。今年的5G建設是什麼？今年的光纖增產是多少？任何顏色都會很棒。

Simon, so first of all, where we are when we set the transaction up and announced it, I think I indicated it was really important for us to put a transaction out there that we felt like we had a high degree of confidence that we could work through the regulatory process. And I'm really pleased the team has done exactly that.

西蒙，所以首先，當我們建立交易並宣布交易時，我認為我表示將交易放在那裡對我們來說非常重要，我們覺得我們有高度的信心，我們可以通過監管程序工作。我真的很高興團隊做到了這一點。

And if you kind of looked at the prototype of the time frame and when we expected various approvals and processes to work through, we have tracked right to the likely case analysis on that. And as you are aware, we've had several milestones over the last couple of weeks, including clearance in the EU. We've gotten through our filing process with the SEC.

如果您查看了時間框架的原型，並且當我們預計各種批准和流程能夠通過時，我們已經跟踪到了可能的案例分析。如您所知，我們在過去幾週取得了幾個里程碑，包括在歐盟的許可。我們已經完成了向美國證券交易委員會提交的申請程序。

You kind of look at where we are in other international regulatory domains and what our exchange has been with domestic regulators, and all that is going right to pattern as we expected. And we don't see anything that causes us concern and consequently raising our confidence level that we can tighten that time frame of when we believe we'll have everything kind of line up and be ready to go sometime during the second quarter.

你可以看看我們在其他國際監管領域的位置，以及我們與國內監管機構的交流情況，所有這些都按照我們的預期進行。而且我們沒有看到任何引起我們擔憂的事情，因此提高了我們的信心水平，我們可以收緊我們相信我們將在第二季度的某個時間安排好一切並準備好去的時間框架。

So I'm really pleased about that. I think everybody feels pretty good about where things stand. There's still work to be done, always is. There's a lot of moving parts. But based on how these things go, I feel about as good as I can feel at this point in that time.

所以我對此感到非常高興。我認為每個人都對事情的發展感覺很好。仍有工作要做，總是如此。有很多活動部件。但是根據這些事情的進展情況，我當時的感覺是我能感覺到的。

And we're now moving into the mode of the cycle where we're making what I'll call the final preparations as opposed to anticipating what we have to work through.

我們現在正在進入循環模式，我們正在做我稱之為最後的準備工作，而不是預測我們必須完成的工作。

In terms of clarity on structure, I would tell you, we're pretty close to giving you some guidance on that. I would certainly expect by the time we get together with you in March that you would have some understanding of where we're going, at least that's what I would expect.

就結構的清晰度而言，我會告訴你，我們非常接近為你提供一些指導。我當然希望我們在三月份與您聚在一起時，您會對我們的發展方向有所了解，至少這是我所期望的。

Ultimately, the Board has to make a call on that and has to make a final decision. Looking at it, handicapping it and my sense of where they are in that cycle and what we know about how the markets have performed over the last couple of months, I think we're at a point right now where we're almost ready to call a question on that.

最終，董事會必須就此作出決定並做出最終決定。看著它，阻礙它，以及我對它們在那個週期中所處位置的感覺，以及我們對過去幾個月市場表現的了解，我認為我們現在正處於一個幾乎準備就緒的地步就此打個問號。

Our desire and our posture on that is we'd like to let you know as soon as we conclude. So once the Board makes a final decision, we will carry it forward. And I think we're tight enough to the close window right now that we could probably do that as soon as the Board is comfortable with the decision and what we want to do around that.

我們的願望和我們對此的態度是，我們希望在我們結束後立即通知您。因此，一旦董事會做出最終決定，我們將繼續執行。而且我認為我們現在對關閉窗口已經足夠緊了，只要董事會對決定以及我們想要做的事情感到滿意，我們就可以這樣做。

They've, as you would expect, put a lot of diligence into this over the last several months. They've carefully considered a lot of different options. There are pros and cons to going either with a spin or a split.

正如你所料，他們在過去幾個月里為此付出了很多努力。他們仔細考慮了許多不同的選擇。旋轉或分裂各有利弊。

Certainly, it's attractive and we're -- the reason we kept this option open is at some point, I'd like to get the share count circulated on AT&T down. And this was an opportunity for us to evaluate whether something like that could occur in order to do that.

當然，它很有吸引力，而且我們 - 我們保持這個選項開放的原因是在某個時候，我想讓 AT&T 上流通的股票數量減少。這對我們來說是一個機會來評估是否會發生類似的事情來做到這一點。

It's a bit of an unprecedented transaction in size. There's never been a split off of anything close to this number of shares with this kind of a base. We also have a very large retail base, and we have to be mindful of the fact that, that retail base sometimes doesn't go as deep on the puts and takes and ins and outs of things as the institutional base does. And we need to make sure it's transparent and clean for everybody involved in this.

這是一筆規模空前的交易。在這種基礎上，從未有過接近這個數量的股票的分裂。我們也有一個非常大的零售基礎，我們必須注意這樣一個事實，即零售基礎有時不像機構基礎那樣深入了解看跌期權和事物的進出。我們需要確保它對參與其中的每個人都是透明和乾淨的。

And as I step back and look at it, we need to be very thoughtful about what we started with is our watch word around this transaction, which was we want the shareholders to get value out of this. This is all about driving shareholder value.

當我退後一步看它時，我們需要非常深思熟慮，我們開始時圍繞這筆交易的口號是我們希望股東從中獲得價值。這一切都是為了推動股東價值。

And given the size of the split, we know that there would have to be some leakage to kind of get that structure properly. So as we kind of step back, we want to do something that's clean. We want to do something that's delivered.

鑑於分裂的大小，我們知道必須有一些洩漏才能正確地獲得該結構。所以當我們退後一步時，我們想做一些乾淨的事情。我們想做一些已經交付的事情。

The Board hasn't decided right now. There's pros and cons of both. But I think we'll be probably giving you some sense of what we want to do around that in fairly short order. And we wanted to be transparent and claim.

董事會現在還沒有決定。兩者各有利弊。但我認為我們可能會在相當短的時間內讓您了解我們想要圍繞它做些什麼。我們希望保持透明並聲稱。

Here's what I would tell you is kind of where I start this. Markets are pretty good. They'll eventually settle to the right place. And as I said when we announced the transaction in May, this isn't going to be something that's going to ultimately manifest and unlock the value overnight.

這就是我要告訴你的是我從哪裡開始。市場相當不錯。他們最終會安頓在正確的地方。正如我在 5 月宣布交易時所說的那樣，這不會在一夜之間最終體現並釋放價值。

We knew that this restructuring would take a little bit of time, both through a regulatory process and then the reordering and combination of the new assets. And so being mindful of keeping true to the best way to get value back to the shareholder and being patient as the markets wear out over time, I think that's kind of where my head is at, at this juncture right now. And we'll finish the final touches on this and ultimately let you know fairly quickly.

我們知道，這種重組需要一點時間，無論是通過監管流程，然後是新資產的重新排序和組合。因此，請注意堅持將價值返還給股東的最佳方式，並在市場隨著時間的推移而逐漸衰退時保持耐心，我認為這就是我現在的想法所在。我們將完成對此的最後潤色，並最終讓您很快知道。

At the same time we do that, we'll let you know about the dividend policy and where we're going on that. We've already told you it's going to be between $8 billion and $9 billion. And I think we know enough about the market where it stands right now that no matter where we are in that $8 billion to $9 billion range even at the low end of that range, we're still going to be paying out at the top of corporate America from a yield perspective.

在我們這樣做的同時，我們會讓您了解股息政策以及我們將在哪裡進行。我們已經告訴過你，它將在 80 億美元到 90 億美元之間。而且我認為我們對目前所處的市場有足夠的了解，無論我們處於 80 億至 90 億美元的範圍內，即使處於該範圍的低端，我們仍將支付最高的從收益的角度來看美國公司。

So it makes for a very attractive value in the stock right now. There's a lot of optionality and upside, especially when I think about how the media asset is performing and what's going on in the growth of the direct-to-consumer business and what we have for value accretion that can occur as we start to move up the kind of multiples that are warranted in that business. So I think that there's a good play either way around that.

因此，它目前在股票中具有非常有吸引力的價值。有很多可選性和優勢，特別是當我考慮媒體資產的表現以及直接面向消費者業務的增長情況以及隨著我們開始向上移動時可能發生的價值增值時在該業務中保證的倍數。所以我認為無論哪種方式都有很好的發揮。

On the CapEx side, Simon, we're not going to break out specifically what we're doing in specific categories of the spend. What we've tried to give you a sense of is first of all, we've given you the guidance for the year. We told you in terms of how we're staging this. Our spend starts to get more aggressive in the wireless transition into the C-band in the Auction 110 spectrum when we hit midyear.

在資本支出方面，西蒙，我們不會具體說明我們在特定支出類別中所做的事情。首先，我們試圖讓您了解的是，我們已經為您提供了這一年的指導。我們告訴過你我們是如何進行的。到年中時，我們在 Auction 110 頻譜中向 C 頻段的無線過渡方面的支出開始變得更加激進。

And the reason behind that is we are in a unique position to be able to deploy both 40 megahertz of our A block from the C-band and our 40 megahertz from the Auction 110. I want to be careful about how far I go, but it's public and then the public domain that we've won 40 megahertz nationwide in that auction.

這背後的原因是我們處於一個獨特的位置，能夠同時部署來自 C 波段的 40 兆赫 A 塊和來自 Auction 110 的 40 兆赫。我想小心我走多遠，但是它是公開的，然後是我們在那次拍賣中贏得了全國 40 兆赫的公共領域。

Those radios become available in the early part of the summer, late spring. And so to do that together at one time with one tower climb, that allows us to start really going what I would call good guns on this and scaling that up.

這些收音機在夏初春末可用。因此，一次完成一次攀登塔樓，這讓我們能夠真正開始我所說的“好槍”並擴大規模。

And we'll be at 200 million POPs for mid-band deployment, which will be an 80 megahertz mid-band deployment by the end of next year. And so that's how you can think about the scaling and how we're going to deploy around that.

我們的中頻部署將達到 2 億個 POP，到明年年底將部署 80 兆赫茲的中頻。這就是您可以如何考慮擴展以及我們將如何圍繞它進行部署的方式。

And I think typically, when we've looked at an air interface change, it's been an $8 billion-ish round number to kind of get through that transition over a number of years. And I expect that, that will probably be the case as we work through the next 3-year deployment of this air interface change.

我認為通常情況下，當我們看到空中接口的變化時，要在幾年內完成這種過渡，需要花費 80 億美元左右的整數。我預計，當我們在接下來的 3 年部署這種空中接口變化時，情況可能會如此。

Great. And on the fiber side?

偉大的。在光纖方面？

Look, we've given you the direction of where we're heading. They're going to be at 30 million homes by the end of '25. You saw us pick up the pace in the fourth quarter. We wound up 2.6 million passed locations.

看，我們已經給你指明了前進的方向。到 25 年底，他們將擁有 3000 萬戶家庭。你看到我們在第四季度加快了步伐。我們清盤了 260 萬個經過的地點。

We feel like we're through the supply-related issues. The organization is executing in the field operationally at a very good clip on that. And so I feel very, very comfortable that we're going to hit that 30 million direction that we've given you by the end of '25.

我們覺得我們正在解決與供應相關的問題。該組織正在以非常好的方式在現場執行。所以我感到非常非常舒服，我們將在 25 年底之前達到我們給你的 3000 萬個方向。

As I told you last quarter, I'd like to get off of the number of homes passed in any 90-day period discussion. And I think what you should be looking at is are we selling more end users. And you are going to see us start to sell more end users each quarter as we move forward, and you're going to see our subscriber count start to ramp as that footprint gets larger.

正如我上個季度告訴你的那樣，我想了解在任何 90 天期間討論中通過的房屋數量。我認為你應該關注的是我們銷售更多的最終用戶。隨著我們向前發展，您將看到我們每個季度開始銷售更多最終用戶，並且隨著足蹟的擴大，您將看到我們的訂戶數量開始增加。

And I couldn't be more excited, given our announcement this week on 2-gig and 5-gig offerings. We are going to be out in the market with a superior product. We've had great momentum finishing another year of 1 million-plus adds. Now with a product that's going to be even better, it's going to clearly demonstrate the superior capabilities and the infrastructure we're putting out there plus the footprint expansion, I feel really good about the moment you're going to be seeing in our subscriber counts as we move through '22.

鑑於我們本周宣布了 2-gig 和 5-gig 產品，我感到非常興奮。我們將以優質的產品進入市場。我們的勢頭強勁，又一年增加了 100 萬以上。現在有了一個更好的產品，它將清楚地展示我們在那裡推出的卓越功能和基礎設施以及足跡擴展，我對你將在我們的訂閱者中看到的那一刻感覺非常好在我們度過 22 年時很重要。

Our next question comes from the line of Brett Feldman with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Brett Feldman。

Your simplified mobile offers have obviously had a lot of traction in the market. At the same time, they've been out there for about 1.5 years. And so it seems like consumers who are uniquely attracted to that have had a lot of opportunity to avail themselves.

您簡化的移動優惠顯然在市場上有很大的吸引力。同時，他們已經存在了大約 1.5 年。因此，似乎被獨特吸引的消費者有很多機會利用自己。

And so the question would be, how are you thinking about evolving your mobile go-to-market strategy or your value proposition? Or maybe another way of asking that would be, what do you think the AT&T brand means to the mobile consumer? What do you think it should mean? And what is your tactic for driving that perception shift?

所以問題是，您如何考慮發展您的移動市場戰略或價值主張？或者另一種提問方式是，您認為 AT&T 品牌對移動消費者意味著什麼？你覺得應該是什麼意思？你推動這種觀念轉變的策略是什麼？

It's a good question, Brett. As we move through this year, I think you'll see us very definitively rotate into a position.

這是個好問題，布雷特。隨著我們今年的到來，我想你會看到我們非常明確地輪換到一個位置。

First of all, I would tell you the strength of the offers that we've been on for a period of time is, in fact, that we've been on these offers for a period of time. And I don't view that as being something I'm concerned about. I actually view it as something that we're really pleased about.

首先，我會告訴你，我們已經接受了一段時間的報價的優勢實際上是我們已經接受了一段時間的這些報價。我不認為這是我關心的事情。實際上，我認為這是我們非常高興的事情。

It's basic, fundamental, easy for the customer to understand that we see no evidence whatsoever that we're losing traction in the value proposition that we have. And in fact, I would point to what we did this week on our broadband offer and trying to go in with an everyday simple pricing construct.

對於客戶來說，這是基本的、根本的、容易理解的，我們沒有看到任何證據表明我們正在失去對我們所擁有的價值主張的吸引力。事實上，我會指出我們本週在寬帶服務上所做的事情，並嘗試採用日常簡單的定價結構。

And the reason we're doing that is based on what we learned from our wireless business, which is something that's very straightforward for the consumer to understand over time allows us to gain the right kind of momentum in the market that's sustainable. It drives up customer satisfaction. It allows us to be consistent in our messaging that we carry out to the market.

我們這樣做的原因是基於我們從無線業務中學到的東西，隨著時間的推移，消費者很容易理解這一點，這使我們能夠在可持續的市場中獲得正確的勢頭。它提高了客戶滿意度。它使我們能夠在向市場傳達的信息中保持一致。

It ensures that every one of our employees knows the line and doesn't have to relearn something every 30 days, 60 days, 90 days. And so we're very comfortable with the messaging we have right now. We're very comfortable that it still has room to run.

它確保我們的每個員工都知道這條線，並且不必每 30 天、60 天、90 天重新學習一些東西。所以我們對我們現在擁有的消息非常滿意。我們很高興它仍有運行空間。

And when we talk about a focused, simplified business moving forward, part of what we're attempting to do is move our entire product portfolio into a position that we can represent it in a similar fashion. And so this week's move in our fixed broadband products is really important when you think about lining that up and carrying that message forward.

當我們談論一個專注、簡化的業務向前發展時，我們試圖做的一部分是將我們的整個產品組合轉移到一個我們可以以類似方式代表它的位置。因此，當您考慮將其排列並傳播該信息時，本週在我們的固定寬帶產品方面的舉措非常重要。

When I think about how we communicate more effectively around the brand, I think you've heard me allude to this in some previous conversations that there's a lot of things that I think the AT&T brand is very strong and does very, very well in the market: reliability, reputation of consistency, there's a perception within the business community about advanced networking and the strength that we have around that, trusted in those regards.

當我想到我們如何更有效地圍繞品牌進行溝通時，我想你在之前的一些對話中已經聽到我提到這一點，我認為 AT&T 品牌在很多方面非常強大，並且在市場：可靠性，一致性的聲譽，商業界對先進網絡的看法以及我們在這方面擁有的實力，在這些方面值得信賴。

But I also believe we can do some things to start to manifest to the consumer some of those characteristics we just talked about in a more real way, which is a more straightforward, simplified, credible, reliable expert. And I don't want to take away anybody's thunder, but I think you should expect after we close the WarnerMedia Discovery transaction that you will see us maybe start to refine a little bit of the messaging around the brand moving forward in the market that will carry forward the kind of characteristics in a little bit more pointed fashion that we want to carry forward. I think that is underneath your question.

但我也相信我們可以做一些事情，開始以更真實的方式向消費者展示我們剛才談到的一些特徵，這是一個更直接、簡化、可信、可靠的專家。我不想奪走任何人的風頭，但我認為你應該期待在我們完成 WarnerMedia Discovery 交易後，你會看到我們可能會開始完善一些圍繞品牌在市場上向前發展的信息，這將以更尖銳的方式發揚我們想要發揚的那種特徵。我認為這在你的問題之下。

And we've been doing a lot of work around this. I've alluded to it in previous remarks. This isn't an advertising campaign. This is about structurally what we do behind the business to operate in a way that we think is going to be relevant with the consumer and get the operations lined up around that. So that what we tell the customer is, in fact, represented in our product offers, our service support, how they experience AT&T moving forward.

我們已經為此做了很多工作。我在之前的評論中提到過。這不是廣告活動。這在結構上是關於我們在業務背後所做的工作，以一種我們認為與消費者相關的方式運營，並使運營圍繞這一點進行排列。因此，我們告訴客戶的內容實際上體現在我們的產品報價、我們的服務支持以及他們如何體驗 AT&T 的發展中。

We've been working really hard on that over the last year. We still have a little bit of work to do to finish that up. But I think by the time you get into the mid part of the year, you will see what that definition looks like and where we're going.

在過去的一年裡，我們一直在努力。我們還有一些工作要做才能完成。但我認為當你進入年中時，你會看到這個定義是什麼樣的以及我們要去哪裡。

And our next question comes from the line of John Hodulik with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 John Hodulik。

First, Pascal, thanks for the -- all the color on the guidance and per segment. But can you give us -- can you let us know what the guidance for '22 assumes for Remainco EBITDA growth?

首先，Pascal，感謝您提供指導和每個部分的所有顏色。但是你能給我們 - 你能讓我們知道'22的指導假設Remainco EBITDA增長嗎？

And then drilling down a little bit further, obviously, you guys cut the losses on the business side. And it sounds like you expect sort of further improvement maybe in the second half of next year. Could you walk us through sort of what's going on in that business segment to sort of rationalize it? And do you foresee the possibility of that segment returning to EBITDA growth by the end of the year?

然後再深入一點，顯然，你們減少了業務方面的損失。聽起來你預計明年下半年可能會有進一步的改善。您能否向我們介紹一下該業務部門正在發生的事情以使其合理化？您是否預見到該細分市場在年底前恢復 EBITDA 增長的可能性？

And then maybe for John, just maybe following up on those comments. When do you expect to have these converged offers in the market? And is that what you're talking about in terms of refining the message around the brand, selling a package of fixed and mobile services?

然後也許對約翰來說，也許只是跟進這些評論。您預計這些融合產品何時會出現在市場上？這就是您所說的圍繞品牌完善信息、銷售固定和移動服務包的內容嗎？

So let me do the front end of this, John, and then I'll have Pascal just kind of walk you through the EBITDA dynamics. So let me step back. We're going to spend a lot of time on this in March when we're together with you to give you some color on the business market and where we're going.

所以讓我做這個的前端，約翰，然後我會讓帕斯卡帶你了解 EBITDA 動態。所以讓我退後一步。我們將在三月份花很多時間在這方面，屆時我們將與您一起為您介紹商業市場和我們的發展方向。

But here's what I would tell you, you should understand we've been executing on over the course of the last year and the process we're in. One, we've backed away from sales of revenues that are low margin, low strategic value products. And we've kind of been culling that out of the business profile. And some of that culling has been manifested in the results that you've seen over the course of the last year.

但我要告訴你的是，你應該明白我們在過去一年中一直在執行的過程以及我們所處的過程。第一，我們已經放棄了低利潤、低戰略性的收入銷售價值產品。我們一直在將其從業務概況中剔除。一些剔除已經體現在你在去年看到的結果中。

And where I want the organization to move to is a much more crisp and intense focus on what I call owned and operated infrastructure. I want the foundation of what we're doing in the business segment to really start from we're always putting the customer on facilities and infrastructure that we own and operate, whether it be a wireless network or a fixed network.

我希望組織轉移到的地方是更加清晰和集中地關注我所謂的擁有和運營的基礎設施。我希望我們在業務領域所做工作的基礎真正開始於我們始終將客戶置於我們擁有和運營的設施和基礎設施上，無論是無線網絡還是固定網絡。

And we've made really good progress in our distribution in emphasizing wireless distribution into those segments. And we're now coming in behind that with some of our fixed capabilities as well. And that partly is making sure we have the right fiber products available as well as getting the footprint engineered correctly.

而且我們在強調無線分配到這些細分市場方面取得了非常好的進展。而且我們現在也以我們的一些固定功能落後於它。這部分是為了確保我們有合適的纖維產品可用，以及正確設計足跡。

So as we're out there deploying, are we doing the right things to pick up the business segments where we can grow in the small and midsized segment? We've been sharpening our engineering in order for us to do that.

因此，當我們在那裡進行部署時，我們是否在做正確的事情來抓住我們可以在中小型領域發展的業務領域？為了做到這一點，我們一直在加強我們的工程設計。

And so at the macro level, that's kind of the reorientation that's going on. And it doesn't mean we're backing away from the top end of the market. We want to still be that consulting expert for large enterprises and complex networking for those that need it. And those that need it are typically broad distributed companies, not ones that operate 2 data centers based on how SD-WAN is developed, et cetera. But it's those that have a lot of branch offices or many stores to support or restaurants to support.

所以在宏觀層面，這是一種正在發生的重新定位。這並不意味著我們正在遠離高端市場。我們仍然希望成為大型企業的諮詢專家，並為需要它的人提供複雜的網絡。那些需要它的公司通常是分佈廣泛的公司，而不是那些根據 SD-WAN 的開發方式運營 2 個數據中心的公司，等等。但它是那些有很多分支機構或許多商店要支持或餐館要支持的公司。

That distributed networking is kind of our strength and what we do and where we'll focus. But we can be a lot stronger in the mid and low end of the market. And tuning our distribution where we had that strength so that we can be in with both wireless and fixed solutions is really the reorientation that we're working in that segment of the market and where we need to -- where we're making that pivot to ultimately get back to the kind of growth that we need.

分佈式網絡是我們的強項，也是我們的工作和重點。但我們可以在中低端市場變得更強大。調整我們擁有優勢的分銷渠道，以便我們能夠同時使用無線和固定解決方案，這確實是我們在該市場領域工作的重新定位，也是我們需要的地方——我們正在轉向的地方最終回到我們需要的那種增長。

I don't expect in aggregate that we're going to see EBITDA growth in the business segment this year. I do expect we're going to see that turn next year. And we're going to talk a little bit about that in March when we get together.

我總體上預計今年業務部門的 EBITDA 不會增長。我確實希望我們明年會看到這種轉變。我們將在 3 月份聚在一起時談一談這個問題。

But that's kind of what I would say is the macro point of view of what's occurring. And the converged offers in some cases are actually happening today, especially in the mid and upper part of the market is we bundle both wireless and fixed together on the same paper.

但這就是我要說的是正在發生的事情的宏觀觀點。在某些情況下，融合產品實際上正在今天發生，尤其是在中高端市場，我們將無線和固定在同一張紙上捆綁在一起。

And I think you're going to now start to see things that are occurring in private networking that extend into the business space. We already are starting. I can't disclose a couple of the larger customers we've signed with yet at this point. But you're starting to see that combined fixed wireless converged networking that I think is going to be relevant in the upper part of the business space.

而且我認為您現在將開始看到私有網絡中正在發生的事情，這些事情擴展到了商業領域。我們已經開始了。目前我還不能透露我們已經簽約的幾個大客戶。但是您開始看到組合的固定無線融合網絡，我認為這將與業務領域的上層部分相關。

And then I believe you will see as we get into the latter part of the year us starting to do a better job of using both our fixed wireless capability to pick up segments of the business community early to accelerate revenues and then back in behind it with fixed facilities as we gain scale over time. But that should be something that really becomes more transparent to the customer where they're buying bandwidth from us and they're not caring about how we deliver. Pascal, do you want to give the EBITDA guide?

然後我相信你會看到，隨著我們進入今年下半年，我們開始做得更好，利用我們的固定無線能力及早獲取商業社區的細分市場以加速收入，然後通過隨著時間的推移，我們的規模越來越大。但這應該是真正對客戶更加透明的東西，他們從我們那裡購買帶寬並且他們不關心我們如何提供。帕斯卡，你想給 EBITDA 指南嗎？

Sure thing. Look, as you know, John, we did not give specific EBITDA guidance, but I think you can get pretty close with some of the information that we've given.

肯定的事。看，你知道，約翰，我們沒有給出具體的 EBITDA 指導，但我認為你可以非常接近我們提供的一些信息。

Here are some of the dynamics to think about in each of our major businesses for Remainco. Mobility, while we expect some comparison issues early in the year, we feel really good about the organic trends in that business. We expect continued growth in wireless service revenues. We -- transformation continues, and we expect some operating leverage from that. So we feel really good about the trajectory that the Mobility business is on. I think you can get a pretty good sense for where that should land given our wireless service revenue growth, given our fourth quarter performance, we feel really good.

以下是我們在 Remainco 的每個主要業務中需要考慮的一些動態。移動性，雖然我們預計今年年初會出現一些比較問題，但我們對該業務的有機趨勢感覺非常好。我們預計無線服務收入將持續增長。我們 - 轉型仍在繼續，我們期望從中獲得一些運營槓桿。因此，我們對移動業務的發展軌跡感到非常滿意。鑑於我們的無線服務收入增長，鑑於我們第四季度的表現，我認為您可以很好地了解應該在哪裡著陸，我們感覺非常好。

Consumer Wireline, the word here is scale. As this -- we feel really good about the build we had in 2021. As that business scales, the operating leverage is really good. You couple that with transformation, the Consumer Wireline segment is also expected to grow. As you just heard from John, Business Wireline, we expect losses to moderate as we make our way through the year, but we don't expect that segment to grow. You layer on top of that an expectation of continued transformation savings on corporate and other. You can get a pretty fair sense that overall, the business is going to be, on an EBITDA basis, flattish to up modestly.

消費者有線，這裡的詞是規模。因此，我們對 2021 年的構建感覺非常好。隨著業務規模的擴大，運營槓桿非常好。再加上轉型，消費者有線部門也有望增長。正如您剛剛從 Business Wireline 的 John 那裡聽到的那樣，我們預計隨著這一年的發展，虧損將有所緩和，但我們預計該細分市場不會增長。在此之上，您還期望在企業和其他方面持續節省轉型成本。您可以相當公平地感覺到，總體而言，在 EBITDA 的基礎上，該業務將持平至適度增長。

And our next question comes from the line of Michael Rollins with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的邁克爾·羅林斯。

I'm curious if you could dive a little further into the wireless business. And specifically, if you could unpack the wireless service revenue growth guidance of 3% plus, with respect to how you're thinking about volume, the opportunities to improve ARPU and any contributions that you would expect from a DISH wholesale deal that you previously announced? And then just separately on a higher level in terms of the asset mix. John, you mentioned that you were largely done with asset disposition. And just curious if there's any further exploration of optimizing the wireline footprint or thinking about the future opportunities for your DTV business, and where that may better fit strategically over time?

我很好奇您是否可以進一步涉足無線業務。具體來說，如果您可以解開 3% 以上的無線服務收入增長指導，關於您如何考慮數量、提高 ARPU 的機會以及您對之前宣布的 DISH 批發交易的任何預期貢獻?然後就資產組合而言，只是在更高的層次上分開。約翰，你提到你基本上完成了資產處置。只是好奇是否有任何進一步探索優化有線足跡或考慮您的 DTV 業務的未來機會，以及隨著時間的推移在哪些方面可能更適合戰略？

Mike, I -- let me start. Here's the way you think about it. First and foremost, the market remains really healthy. Now for planning purposes, as you would expect, we are planning that the industry will continue to grow the way it has the last 1.5 years. But overall, the market remains healthy. And in that environment, we're going to be disciplined, and we believe we will continue to take share in a very disciplined way.

邁克，我——讓我開始吧。這是你的想法。首先，市場仍然非常健康。現在出於規劃目的，如您所料，我們計劃該行業將繼續按照過去 1.5 年的方式發展。但總體而言，市場仍然健康。在那種環境下，我們將受到紀律處分，我們相信我們將繼續以非常有紀律的方式分享。

But for planning purposes, we have assumed that the overall industry normalizes to where it's been historically. That's one. In terms of ARPU, and I think we've said this previously, the way we think about this is as we make our way through the year, we have every expectation that we should see continuing recovery in international roaming.

但出於規劃目的，我們假設整個行業已正常化至其歷史水平。那是一個。就 ARPU 而言，我認為我們之前已經說過，我們對此的看法是，隨著我們度過這一年，我們完全期望我們應該看到國際漫遊的持續復甦。

And also, what we're also seeing is our elite unlimited plan is our highest-priced ARPU plan, and it's our fastest growing. And as a result of that, we expect to continue moving up the ARPU stack. That's going to be partially offset by the amortization of some of the promotional expenses. But all in all, we feel really good about the trajectory of mobility.

而且，我們還看到我們的精英無限計劃是我們價格最高的 ARPU 計劃，而且是我們增長最快的計劃。因此，我們希望繼續提升 ARPU 堆棧。這將被一些促銷費用的攤銷部分抵消。但總而言之，我們對移動性的軌跡感覺非常好。

So Michael, on your second question, so we set up the DIRECTV structure deliberately. And when I say we're through the asset disposition, I think the distinction I would draw there is the management team that -- of AT&T Remainco is not going to be distracted with having to work through additional work on restructuring the asset base of the company in the near term. And that doesn't mean that the independent DIRECTV company and the management team that is operating that over there might not choose to do something in their business. I don't know of anything. I'm not announcing anything.

所以邁克爾，關於你的第二個問題，所以我們特意設置了 DIRECTV 結構。當我說我們已經完成資產處置時，我認為我要在那裡得出的區別是管理團隊——AT&T Remainco 不會因為不得不通過額外的工作來重組資產基礎而分心公司在短期內。這並不意味著獨立的 DIRECTV 公司和在那裡運營的管理團隊可能不會選擇在他們的業務中做某事。我什麼都不知道。我沒有宣布任何事情。

But what I'm trying to distinguish is if that entity decided that there was value to be created to restructure their business in some way, shape or form, it is a distinctive group of individuals that would be involved in doing that and executing it. And it would not cause the AT&T management team to have to spend cycles and energy working through those kinds of issues. And so I think that's the distinction I'm trying to draw, not to suggest that the DIRECTV asset per se is frozen in time or not.

但我要區分的是，如果該實體決定以某種方式、形式或形式重組其業務來創造價值，它是一個獨特的個人群體，將參與這樣做並執行它。而且它不會導致 AT&T 管理團隊不得不花費周期和精力來解決這些問題。所以我認為這就是我試圖畫出的區別，而不是暗示 DIRECTV 資產本身是否被及時凍結。

In terms of your question on the wireline footprint. We spend a lot of time far back as 2012 and constantly revisiting and relooking how we wanted to work through the transition of our business. And I'm not a big believer right now that us going out and taking the less utilized parts of our wireline footprint; and sending them out to somebody at a steep discount; and continuing to have to do things like operationally provide services to that entity for many, many years to come on infrastructure, IT systems, et cetera, that have to be maintained, is the right thing for a healthy and sustainable business.

關於你關於有線足蹟的問題。早在 2012 年，我們就花了很多時間，不斷地重新審視和重新審視我們希望如何在業務轉型中開展工作。而且我現在不太相信我們會走出去佔用我們有線足跡中使用較少的部分；並以極低的折扣將它們發送給某人；並且繼續必須在基礎設施、IT 系統等方面繼續為該實體提供運營服務多年，這些必須維護，對於健康和可持續的業務來說是正確的事情。

My point of view is that as a management team that runs networks and what we do around here, our job should be to rationalize those assets in an effective way and do it in the best interest of our shareholders. And you've heard me talk about that.

我的觀點是，作為一個運營網絡的管理團隊以及我們在這裡所做的事情，我們的工作應該是以有效的方式合理化這些資產，並為股東的最大利益而做。你也聽過我談論這個。

When I talk about transformation and shutting down products and thinking about how we become a company that offers products on fiber, what's going on behind the scenes on that is actually backing away and moving deliberately through a process of taking products that served us incredibly well. That have been the mainstay of this company for a period of time. And doing in a very, very smart and tactical way this shutdown and sunset of those. And as we sunset them, take the high cost operating model that supports them away.

當我談到轉型和關閉產品並思考我們如何成為一家提供纖維產品的公司時，幕後發生的事情實際上是退縮並故意通過採用對我們服務非常好的產品的過程。一段時間以來，這一直是這家公司的支柱。並以一種非常、非常聰明和戰術性的方式完成這些關閉和日落。當我們淘汰它們時，取消支持它們的高成本運營模式。

And so when we talk about transformation and we talk about getting savings from shutting down applications and IT infrastructure and product sunset, that's really synonymous with us actually walking away from square miles and infrastructure and costs and all the things that have seen their better day. And so we intend to ultimately capture that value and return it to the shareholder. Not do it in a front-end loaded transaction that's highly discounted, that leaves us saddled with distracting operating models that don't allow us to be a focused broadband fiber provider, offering the best products available in the market.

因此，當我們談論轉型並談論通過關閉應用程序和 IT 基礎設施以及產品停產來節省開支時，這真的是我們真正遠離平方英里、基礎設施和成本以及所有已經看到好日子的東西的代名詞。因此，我們打算最終獲取該價值並將其返還給股東。不要在高度折扣的前端加載交易中這樣做，這讓我們背負著令人分心的運營模式，這些模式不允許我們成為專注的寬帶光纖提供商，提供市場上最好的產品。

And our next question comes from the line of David Barden with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的大衛巴登。

I guess my first one for you, John, we saw about 2.5x more fiber homes passed in 2020. But over the course of the year, fiber net adds didn't really accelerate. And so as we look at even more acceleration in fiber, when should we start to see the acceleration in fiber net adds? And what's the typical lag time from a passing to a selling opportunity?

我想我的第一個是給你的，約翰，我們看到 2020 年通過的光纖家庭增加了大約 2.5 倍。但在這一年中，光纖網絡的增加並沒有真正加速。因此，當我們看到更多的纖維加速度時，我們應該什麼時候開始看到纖維網的加速度增加？從傳球到賣出機會的典型滯後時間是多少？

And Pascal, I guess I was a little surprised to see the $4 billion growth capital investment premium over CapEx because I think over most of the year, we've been talking about maybe weaning ourselves off of that number. And I think that it raises the question as we look into 2023 and people have been, as you know, trying to bridge from this year's 26 to the 2023 $20 billion guidance given the higher CapEx and the loss of the $3 billion WarnerMedia cash contribution, how much vendor financing is baked into that 20 that maybe we hadn't been thinking about?

帕斯卡，我想看到 40 億美元的增長資本投資溢價超過資本支出讓我有點驚訝，因為我認為在一年的大部分時間裡，我們一直在談論可能要擺脫這個數字。而且我認為，當我們展望 2023 年時，人們一直在試圖從今年的 26 年到 2023 年的 200 億美元指導值過渡到 2023 年的 200 億美元指導值，因為資本支出增加並且華納媒體失去了 30 億美元的現金貢獻，有多少供應商融資包含在我們可能沒有考慮過的這 20 個項目中？

So I'll take the front end, Dave, and then you can get the color from Pascal on the EBITDA dynamic and cash flow. The answer to your question is, from the time we say go to about the time we're actually in the market selling is currently running about a year. And that's literally when we say go that we're going to start engineering and go into a particular area.

因此，我將負責前端，Dave，然後您可以從 Pascal 那裡獲得關於 EBITDA 動態和現金流的顏色。您的問題的答案是，從我們所說的時間到我們實際進入市場的時間，目前正在運行大約一年。這就是字面上的意思，當我們說我們將開始工程並進入特定領域時。

I'd like that at maturity and the challenge I've got to the team is I like that to be 9 months. What's worked against us to do better than a year right now has been a little bit of spottiness in the supply chain that we've shared with you. It's really what drove some of the challenges to get to the 3 million objective last year that we ultimately ended up at 2.6.

我希望在成熟時這樣做，而我對團隊的挑戰是我喜歡 9 個月。我們與您分享的供應鏈中存在一些不利於我們現在做得比一年更好的事情。去年我們最終達到了 2.6 的 300 萬目標，這確實是推動一些挑戰的原因。

And as a result of that, we were back-end loaded in the turnup of the 2.6. That inventory came available for sale very late in the year. And now it's out in the market and available. And as we shared with you, what we have improved fairly dramatically over the last several years is a rate of penetration once it becomes available for sale. And we're walking up that penetration dynamic faster.

因此，我們在 2.6 的啟動中被後端加載。該庫存在今年晚些時候開始出售。現在它已經上市並可用。正如我們與您分享的那樣，在過去幾年中，我們取得了相當顯著的進步，即一旦它可以出售，滲透率就會提高。我們正在更快地推進這種滲透動態。

And so my goal had been, and what I'd still like to work the management team to, is from time of engineering to time of availability 9 months and then achieving what we're actually doing right now on the penetration rates. And so you are going to see that acceleration start to happen because we have put that inventory in the market. A lot of it came on late last year.

所以我的目標是，我仍然希望管理團隊工作的目標是，從工程設計時間到可用時間 9 個月，然後在滲透率方面實現我們現在實際正在做的事情。因此，您將看到加速開始發生，因為我們已將庫存投放市場。很多都是去年年底出現的。

And you should expect that as we start working through the quarter here and into second quarter, third quarter that we start crawling up that dynamic of putting 3 handles routinely on our net add numbers for broadband. And that's where I want to see us get, and we should be able to get there as we move through this year.

而且您應該期望，當我們開始在這裡完成本季度並進入第二季度，第三季度時，我們開始在我們的網絡上定期添加 3 個手柄以增加寬帶數量。這就是我希望看到我們達到的目標，我們應該能夠在今年前進時達到目標。

So that's kind of the color on it. But what we've been characterizing for you on our rate of penetration, teams made a lot of progress on that. And that's a huge economic driver of return, given the pace and the rate we're doing right now. But I wouldn't mind if at steady state, we got 3 more months of the build cycle. Supply chain has kind of been working against us right now and making that happen and maybe that clear sometime this year, we'll have to see.

所以這就是它的顏色。但是我們一直在為您描述我們的滲透率，團隊在這方面取得了很大進展。考慮到我們現在的步伐和速度，這是回報的巨大經濟驅動力。但我不介意在穩定狀態下，我們還有 3 個月的構建週期。供應鏈現在一直在與我們作對，並使之成為現實，也許今年某個時候會變得很清楚，我們必須拭目以待。

Got it.

知道了。

Dave, on your free cash flow question, you'll hear more from us at Investor Day, but here's what -- just to reiterate some of the piece parts. For 2022, we are guiding to $23 billion of -- the $23 billion range of free cash flow. WarnerMedia is contributing, call it, around $3 billion. And we expect vendor financing to continue to be around $4 billion for this year.

戴夫，關於你的自由現金流問題，你會在投資者日聽到我們的更多消息，但這就是——只是重申一些部分。到 2022 年，我們將引導至 230 億美元——230 億美元的自由現金流範圍。華納媒體的貢獻，稱之為，大約 30 億美元。我們預計今年供應商融資將繼續保持在 40 億美元左右。

You are correct in your recollection that look, we were going to look really hard to make sure that as we are doing these vendor financing transactions that we are getting the best possible terms, and to the extent we felt we can get better financing sources otherwise, we would do that instead of taking vendor financing. But we have found that more and more of our vendors are willing to provide us at very attractive terms and we're taking advantage of those.

您的回憶是正確的，我們將非常努力地確保在進行這些供應商融資交易時，我們獲得了盡可能好的條款，並且在某種程度上我們認為我們可以通過其他方式獲得更好的融資來源，我們會這樣做，而不是接受供應商融資。但我們發現，越來越多的供應商願意以極具吸引力的條件向我們提供服務，我們正在利用這些條件。

With all that said, the guidance we've given here anticipates $20 billion of CapEx, $24 billion of overall gross capital investment. Other piece parts are, keep in mind, as we close the WarnerMedia transaction, we should see a meaningful savings in interest expense and cash interest.

儘管如此，我們在這裡給出的指導預計資本支出為 200 億美元，總資本投資為 240 億美元。請記住，其他部分是，當我們完成華納媒體交易時，我們應該會看到利息費用和現金利息的顯著節省。

And then as we make our way through the year and next year, we're going to hold ourselves accountable to continuing to grow EBITDA at Remainco. So those are all the piece parts to think about as you think about our $20 billion guidance for this year, and you'll hear more from us at Analyst Day.

然後，隨著我們度過這一年和明年，我們將對繼續在 Remainco 增長 EBITDA 負責。因此，當您考慮我們今年 200 億美元的指導時，這些都是需要考慮的部分，您將在分析師日聽到更多來自我們的消息。

And Pascal, if I could just -- a quick follow-up on that. So if -- what you're saying is that in March of 2021, when you were contemplating not using as much vendor financing and you set the $20 billion free cash flow guide for 2023, are you saying that now that vendor financing is too attractive not to take that whatever CapEx number was in that $20 billion free cash flow number will fall, replaced by vendor financing, and that $20 billion free cash flow guide is actually going to be higher?

帕斯卡，如果我可以的話 - 快速跟進一下。因此，如果您所說的是，在 2021 年 3 月，當您考慮不使用盡可能多的供應商融資並設定 2023 年 200 億美元的自由現金流指南時，您是說現在供應商融資太有吸引力了不要認為 200 億美元的自由現金流量中的任何資本支出數字都會下降，取而代之的是供應商融資，而 200 億美元的自由現金流量指南實際上會更高？

I said, Dave, you will hear from us. Today, we are giving guidance on 2022. You'll hear from us on 2023 at Analyst Day in March.

我說，戴夫，你會聽到我們的消息。今天，我們將提供 2022 年的指導。您將在 2023 年 3 月的分析師日收到我們的來信。

And our next question comes from the line of Phil Cusick with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Phil Cusick。

It's funny. I know you're not going to own this forever, but the -- a lot of moving pieces in the Warner side. Can you talk through what's going on in HBO and how we should think about this going forward? Obviously, a lot of issues with Amazon sort of volatility through the quarter. But should we think of this HBO ARPU run rate as a good level going forward? Or is there still expected to be volatility there? And how do you think about the potential growth rate domestically for HBO from here now that the ad-driven product is launched? You also said peak content investment in 2022. Should we expect this to be a sort of negative EBITDA all year? Or do you think by the back half, we've got enough growth to get that back to positive?

這很有趣。我知道你不會永遠擁有它，但華納方面有很多動人的東西。你能談談 HBO 正在發生的事情以及我們應該如何看待這件事嗎？顯然，亞馬遜的很多問題在本季度都有波動。但是我們是否應該將這個 HBO ARPU 運行率視為未來的一個良好水平？還是預計那裡仍會出現波動？既然推出了廣告驅動的產品，您如何看待 HBO 在國內的潛在增長率？您還提到了 2022 年的內容投資高峰期。我們是否應該期望這會成為全年的負 EBITDA？或者你認為到後半部分，我們有足夠的增長來讓它恢復正數？

Sure, Phil. Let me give you maybe some color on the front end and then we can go through. So first of all, as you know, there's a lot of moving parts on the ARPU side of things. One moving part is international ARPUs are different than domestic ARPUs. And if you think about the growth internationally where that's going to be a large part of the growth moving forward, given the new markets we're opening up and the natural penetration that occurs, given the product is sized differently and starts from a different place, you're going to see that have an impact. Generally speaking, those ARPUs internationally are a bit lower than the domestic ARPUs.

當然，菲爾。讓我在前端給你一些顏色，然後我們可以通過。首先，如您所知，ARPU 方面有很多活動部件。一個動人的部分是國際 ARPU 與國內 ARPU 不同。如果您考慮國際增長，考慮到我們正在開放的新市場和發生的自然滲透，考慮到產品的尺寸不同並且從不同的地方開始，這將是未來增長的很大一部分，你會看到它產生了影響。一般來說，國際上的ARPU比國內的ARPU要低一些。

Second point, we've had launched, as I said earlier in my comments, the ad-supported product. And I expect the ad-supported product as a percentage of mix domestically in the U.S. to increase this year. Part of that will be because the products had a little bit of a different characteristic where the subscription product had access to first-run movies, the ad-supported product did not. Effective January 1, products are identical now. And as a result of that, I expect there'll be some customers that choose to go the ad-supported route that may have gone the subscription route before.

第二點，正如我之前在評論中所說，我們已經推出了廣告支持的產品。而且我預計廣告支持的產品在美國國內產品組合中的百分比今年會增加。部分原因是這些產品有一點不同的特點，即訂閱產品可以訪問首映電影，而受廣告支持的產品則不能。自 1 月 1 日起，產品現在相同。因此，我預計會有一些客戶選擇走廣告支持的路線，而他們之前可能已經走訂閱路線。

However, what will happen is it's not that one is less accretive than the other. The subscription line will possibly dilute a bit, but the advertising line will increase. So when you look at the customer overall, they're no less profitable. It just books to 2 different places on the P&L. And our goal, and in fact, what we are seeing today, we are indifferent as to what the customer chooses. Frankly, maybe in some cases, it's a bit more accretive if they go the ad-supported route. So I think you just need to look at your geography of how that plays out more than anything else relative to the domestic side.

然而，將會發生的並不是一個比另一個的增值少。訂閱線可能會稀釋一點，但廣告線會增加。因此，當您從整體上看客戶時，他們的利潤並不少。它只是在損益表上預訂到 2 個不同的地方。而我們的目標，事實上，我們今天所看到的，我們對客戶的選擇漠不關心。坦率地說，也許在某些情況下，如果他們走廣告支持的路線會更有收穫。所以我認為你只需要看看你的地理位置，看看它在國內方面的表現比其他任何事情都重要。

Look, we expect domestic growth to be more suppressed than international growth as we move forward. We're in a great position. We are sitting at a large domestic base with a very high ARPU. And the nice part about that is we said this was going to happen, and it happened. We said the market was going to come to us on pricing. And lo and behold, we are no longer the high-priced offer in the market. And the nice part about that is we think it will allow us to have domestic growth as we move forward. But the base is in a really, really good place as a result of that.

看，隨著我們向前發展，我們預計國內增長將比國際增長更受抑制。我們處於一個很好的位置。我們坐落在一個龐大的國內基地，ARPU 非常高。好的部分是我們說這會發生，它發生了。我們說市場會來找我們定價。你瞧，我們不再是市場上的高價產品。關於這一點的好處是，我們認為這將使我們在前進的過程中實現國內增長。但因此，基地處於一個非常非常好的地方。

We don't have the struggles that maybe some other products that came in at very low prices are going to have to kind of try to move up that ARPU continuum. It's about being very diligent in adding customers at a moderated pace. And I think if you go back to our Analyst Day in 2019, whenever we did that, and we gave you our domestic point of view about what that growth is going to look like, it was a very measured and moderated point of view because starting with mid-40 million-ish customers allowed us to be very different given the ARPUs that we had around them.

我們沒有掙扎，也許其他一些以非常低的價格進入的產品將不得不嘗試提升 ARPU 連續性。這是關於非常勤奮地以適度的速度增加客戶。而且我認為，如果您回到 2019 年的分析師日，無論何時我們這樣做，我們都會向您提供我們國內關於增長將是什麼樣子的觀點，這是一個非常謹慎和溫和的觀點，因為開始考慮到我們周圍擁有的 ARPU，我們擁有 4000 萬左右的客戶，這讓我們變得非常不同。

And then finally, we made that hard decision on Amazon to your point. We felt it was the right decision. I feel it was the right decision. I think it will even be more the right decision in a post discovery environment as the offer only gets stronger that's in the market and the content that's available. At the end of the day, you want full control of your customers. And I'm confident with the strength of the offer that will be in the market, those customers are all going to come back into the offer. It may take a couple of quarters for that to happen. But there will eventually be a product out there that they're going to look at and say they want to be part of.

最後，我們在亞馬遜上做出了這個艱難的決定。我們認為這是正確的決定。我覺得這是正確的決定。我認為在後發現環境中這將是更正確的決定，因為市場和可用內容的報價只會變得更強。歸根結底，您希望完全控制您的客戶。而且我對市場上的報價的實力充滿信心，這些客戶都會重新加入報價。這可能需要幾個季度才能發生。但最終會有一種產品，他們會看到並說他們想成為其中的一部分。

And better to have them there where you have direct access, control of them, can market to them, know what they're doing than to have it be in some black box where you absolutely have no idea what somebody else is doing with aggregating your content and your exposure to the customer. And I would point that out again. That is what our customer base is. There are a lot of entities out there growing "direct-to-consumer customers" that are behind the screen of the Amazon marketplace that really are Amazon's direct-to-consumer customers. They are not the media company's direct-to-consumer customers. Pascal, did you want to add anything on the EBITDA side?

最好讓他們在那裡你可以直接訪問，控制他們，可以向他們推銷，知道他們在做什麼，而不是把它放在一個你完全不知道其他人在做什麼的黑盒子裡。內容和您對客戶的曝光率。我會再次指出這一點。這就是我們的客戶群。在亞馬遜市場的幕後，有很多實體正在增長“直接面向消費者的客戶”，這些實體確實是亞馬遜的直接面向消費者的客戶。他們不是媒體公司直接面向消費者的客戶。 Pascal，您想在 EBITDA 方面添加任何內容嗎？

Look, we provided you with guidance for WarnerMedia, what the contributions for the full year. And keep in mind, we are launching in a number of European territories as well as we plan to launch CNN+ this year. So we are going to be in the investment cycle. But overall, we feel really good about the underlying trends of our direct-to-consumer business. And the balance of the business is performing exactly as you would anticipate.

看，我們為您提供了華納媒體的指導，全年的貢獻是什麼。請記住，我們正在一些歐洲地區推出，並且我們計劃在今年推出 CNN+。所以我們將進入投資週期。但總的來說，我們對直接面向消費者業務的潛在趨勢感覺非常好。業務平衡的表現完全符合您的預期。

And that last question comes from the line of Kannan Venkateshwar with Barclays.

最後一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Kannan Venkateshwar。

So Pascal, maybe one on free cash flow and a bit on the tender. But probably on the free cash flow side, if you think about the $20 billion kind of a number for this year, could you help us understand the breakdown? I mean, there's been some pushback, obviously, as you're aware, that the $20 billion number may not be a real number clearly on the back of the telecom business.

所以帕斯卡，也許是關於自由現金流和投標的。但可能在自由現金流方面，如果你考慮一下今年 200 億美元的數字，你能幫助我們理解細分嗎？我的意思是，顯然，正如您所知，200 億美元的數字可能不是電信業務背後的真實數字。

So if you could help us understand how much of the contribution comes from the DIRECTV, the Xandr bit as well as potential cash flow reversal because you might now get paid for HBO distribution instead of absorbing the working capital impact. So if you could just help us understand that, that would be useful.

因此，如果您能幫助我們了解有多少貢獻來自 DIRECTV、Xandr 比特以及潛在的現金流逆轉，因為您現在可能會從 HBO 發行中獲得報酬，而不是吸收營運資金的影響。因此，如果您能幫助我們理解這一點，那將很有用。

And then the other source of confusion, I think, has been the impact of vendor and the relationship across the 3 assets, across DIRECTV, AT&T as well as WarnerMedia. So if you could just understand the puts and takes. I mean, what went away with the Microsoft transaction, how much of cash flow comes in to AT&T and what moves out to DIRECTV, that would be useful to contextualize the cash flow number.

然後，我認為另一個混亂的來源是供應商的影響以及 DIRECTV、AT&T 和 WarnerMedia 之間的 3 種資產之間的關係。所以如果你能理解看跌期權。我的意思是，微軟交易的結果是什麼，有多少現金流進入 AT&T 以及什麼轉移到 DIRECTV，這對於將現金流數字背景化很有用。

Okay. So Kannan, I appreciate the question. So here is for 2020, let me try to break down free cash flow for you is that, overall, we are guiding to $23 billion. The contribution from WarnerMedia is about $3 billion. The remainder of the company, including the contributions from DIRECTV, are making up the balance of this. And those both will continue post separation.

好的。所以卡南，我很欣賞這個問題。所以這裡是 2020 年，讓我試著為你分解自由現金流，總體而言，我們的目標是 230 億美元。華納媒體的貢獻約為 30 億美元。該公司的其餘部分，包括來自 DIRECTV 的貢獻，正在彌補這一點。兩者都將在分離後繼續。

The piece part to think about this year, relative to the past, we're going to have higher CapEx. And as John explained earlier, that CapEx is related to our formula spectrum as well as our continuing an accelerated rollout of fiber. So we're going to have higher CapEx. But we do expect, as we make our way through the year, that our cash interest costs should decline because of the delevering that is happening at the company.

今年要考慮的部分，相對於過去，我們將擁有更高的資本支出。正如約翰之前解釋的那樣，資本支出與我們的配方範圍以及我們繼續加速推出光纖有關。因此，我們將擁有更高的資本支出。但我們確實預計，隨著我們度過這一年，我們的現金利息成本應該會因為公司正在發生的去槓桿化而下降。

And of course, we are growing our -- as I said, we're flat to up modestly on EBITDA for the overall Remainco. Those are the big piece parts. The way to think about Xandr separately, Xandr has the way to think about historically 2 pieces. You have the AppNexus business, which is in the midst of being sold to Microsoft. We have an agreement in place for that. And then you have the DIRECTV advertising inventory.

當然，我們正在增長我們的 - 正如我所說，我們在整個 Remainco 的 EBITDA 上持平到適度增長。這些是重要的部分。單獨考慮 Xandr 的方式，Xandr 有考慮歷史 2 件的方式。您擁有 AppNexus 業務，該業務正在出售給 Microsoft。我們為此達成了協議。然後你就有了 DIRECTV 廣告庫存。

The DIRECTV advertising inventory prior to the separation was managed and included within WarnerMedia's results. Upon separation, there was a new agreement struck that, whereby, Warner Media would continue to sell DIRECTV advertising inventory through the -- until close. And in exchange for that, WarnerMedia would not -- would receive an ad share. And so the vast majority of the economics of DIRECTV advertising inventory is going back to DIRECTV. Only a commission is staying with Warner Media. So that's -- those are the piece parts for Xandr and the free cash flow dynamics.

分拆前的 DIRECTV 廣告庫存由 WarnerMedia 管理並包含在業績中。分離後，達成了一項新協議，即華納媒體將繼續通過 DIRECTV 廣告庫存銷售——直到關閉。作為交換，華納媒體不會——將獲得廣告份額。因此，DIRECTV 廣告庫存的絕大部分經濟收益都將回到 DIRECTV。只有佣金留在華納媒體。這就是 - 這些是 Xandr 和自由現金流動態的組成部分。

Okay. And could I just ask one follow-up on HBO? On the Amazon deal, that probably caused some volatility in the quarter, but revenues were sequentially down even though subscribers were up and the ARPU was also quite weak sequentially. But when you think about the sequential impact -- sequential revenue trends from here on, is that decline a onetime kind of a decline? How should we think about the cadence from here on?

好的。我可以問一個關於 HBO 的後續行動嗎？在與亞馬遜的交易中，這可能會導致本季度出現一些波動，但儘管訂閱人數有所增加，但收入環比下降，而且 ARPU 環比也相當疲軟。但是當你考慮到連續的影響——從現在開始的連續收入趨勢，這種下降是一次性的下降嗎？從現在開始，我們應該如何考慮節奏？

Yes. Kannan, yes, we expected that we were going to take a -- we're going to be decelerating as a result of Amazon. It is a onetime decline. As we move forward and continue to grow subscribers, we would expect that growth from here.

是的。 Kannan，是的，我們預計我們會採取 - 我們將因為亞馬遜而減速。這是一次下降。隨著我們向前發展並繼續增加訂戶，我們預計將從這裡開始增長。

Thanks very much, Kannan. I'll turn it over to John for some final comments.

非常感謝，卡南。我會把它交給 John 來做一些最後的評論。

So thank you very much for joining us today, and I just couldn't be more pleased with how 2021 turned out. As I started in my opening comments, we outlined for you what we intended to do through the course of the year, and I think we checked the box across the board on every commitment that we made to you.

因此，非常感謝您今天加入我們，我對 2021 年的結果感到非常滿意。正如我在開場白中開始的那樣，我們為您概述了我們在這一年中打算做的事情，我認為我們對我們對您做出的每一項承諾都進行了全面檢查。

I'm really proud of the team. I'm proud of Jason. I'm proud of Jeff. I think they've done a remarkable job, given that we've got a number of moving parts going on in restructuring this business to get the kind of operational focus that we asked them to do. And I think 4 quarters of results here demonstrate that.

我真的為球隊感到驕傲。我為傑森感到驕傲。我為傑夫感到驕傲。我認為他們已經完成了一項了不起的工作，因為我們在重組這項業務方面正在進行許多活動，以獲得我們要求他們做的那種運營重點。我認為這裡有 4 個季度的結果證明了這一點。

And I'm really pleased that we're on the doorstep of being able to complete the transactions that we have in front of us and allow both management teams to focus on moving things forward in the way they can with a clean operating environment. I think the best days are ahead here as a result of that.

我真的很高興我們即將完成我們面前的交易，並允許兩個管理團隊專注於在乾淨的運營環境下以他們可以的方式推進事情。因此，我認為最好的日子即將到來。

Thanks very much. Hope you all have a good year. We'll see you in 90 days.

非常感謝。希望你們都有一個美好的一年。我們90天后見。

And that does conclude your conference for today. Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T Conferencing Service. You may now disconnect.

這確實結束了您今天的會議。感謝您的參與和使用 AT&T 會議服務。您現在可以斷開連接。