Synchrony Financial (SYF) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Synchrony Financial third quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please refer to the company's investor relations website for access to their earnings materials. Please be advised that today's conference call is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Kathryn Miller, Senior Vice President of Investor relations. Thank you. You may begin.

早安，歡迎參加 Synchrony Financial 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作說明）請參閱本公司的投資者關係網站以取得其獲利資料。請注意，今天的電話會議正在錄音。我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係高級副總裁 Kathryn Miller。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to our quarterly earnings conference call. In addition to today's press release, we have provided a presentation that covers the topics we plan to address during our call. The press release, detailed financial schedules and presentation are available on our website synchronyfinancial.com. This information can be accessed by going to the investor relations section of the website.

謝謝大家，大家早安。歡迎參加我們的季度財報電話會議。除了今天的新聞稿外，我們還提供了一份演示文稿，涵蓋了我們計劃在電話會議中討論的主題。新聞稿、詳細財務時間表和簡報可在我們的網站 synchronyfinancial.com 上取得。您可以透過造訪網站的投資者關係部分來獲取此資訊。

Before we get started, I wanted to remind you that our comments today will include forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainty and actual results can differ materially. We list the factors that might cause actual results to differ materially in our sec filings which are available on our website.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，我們今天的評論將包括前瞻性陳述。這些陳述存在風險和不確定性，實際結果可能存在重大差異。我們在網站上提供的 sec 檔案中列出了可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的因素。

During the call, we will refer to non-GAAP financial measures in discussing the company's performance. You can find a reconciliation of these measures to GAAP financial measures in our materials for today's call. Finally, Synchrony Financial is not responsible for and does not edit or guarantee the accuracy of our earnings teleconference transcripts provided by third parties, the only authorized webcasts are located on our website. On the call this morning are Brian Doubles. Synchrony's President and Chief Executive Officer and Brian Wenzel, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

在電話會議期間，我們將參考非公認會計原則財務指標來討論公司的表現。您可以在我們今天電話會議的資料中找到這些指標與 GAAP 財務指標的對照表。最後，Synchrony Financial 不對第三方提供的收益電話會議記錄的準確性負責，也不編輯或保證其準確性，唯一授權的網路廣播位於我們的網站上。今天早上接聽電話的是布萊恩雙打 (Brian Doubles)。Synchrony 總裁兼執行長兼執行副總裁兼財務長 Brian Wenzel。

Thanks, Kathryn. Good morning, everyone. Today, Synchrony reported strong third quarter results including net earnings of $789 million or [$1.94] per diluted share. A return on average assets of 2.6% and a return on tangible common equity of 24.3%. These results reflect Synchrony's commitment to driving value for our customers, partners, providers, small businesses and our shareholders as the operating environment continues to evolve.

謝謝，凱瑟琳。大家早安。今天，Synchrony 公佈了強勁的第三季業績，包括 7.89 億美元的淨利潤或稀釋後每股收益 [1.94 美元]。平均資產報酬率為2.6%，有形普通股報酬率為24.3%。這些結果反映了 Synchrony 致力於隨著營運環境的不斷發展，為我們的客戶、合作夥伴、供應商、小型企業和股東創造價值。

During the quarter, we continued to deliver responsible access to credit through powerful omnichannel experiences. Our broad range of flexible financing solutions and compelling value propositions continue to resonate with customers as they engage across our diversified portfolio.

本季度，我們繼續透過強大的全通路體驗提供負責任的信貸取得。我們廣泛的靈活融資解決方案和引人注目的價值主張在客戶參與我們多元化的投資組合時繼續引起他們的共鳴。

We added 4.7 million new accounts and generated 45 billion of purchase volume, both new account and purchase volume growth continued to be impacted by a modest pullback in consumer spending as well as the credit actions that Synchrony has taken since the middle of 2023 to reinforce the credit trajectory of our portfolio in 2024 and beyond.

我們新增了470 萬個新帳戶，產生了450 億美元的購買量，新帳戶和購買量的增長繼續受到消費者支出小幅回落以及Synchrony 自2023 年中期以來為強化信用而採取的信貸行動的影響。

Despite those actions, average active accounts remained stable versus last year and ending receivables grew 4%. Purchase volume and receivables at the platform level reflected a continuation of the trends we've discussed over the course of this year. Customers continue to be selective in how and where they spend, particularly as they manage their spend to navigate the effects of inflation on needs like groceries, utilities and rent.

儘管採取了這些行動，平均活躍帳戶與去年相比仍保持穩定，期末應收帳款增加了 4%。平台層面的採購量和應收帳款反映了我們今年討論的趨勢的延續。客戶在消費方式和地點方面仍然有選擇性，特別是當他們管理支出以應對通貨膨脹對食品雜貨、公用事業和租金等需求的影響時。

Platform purchase volume growth ranged between down 3% and down 7% year-over-year. Generally reflecting lower spend per account as customers moderated both bigger ticket and discretionary spend particularly in categories like furniture, electronics, cosmetic and vision, as well as the impact of Synchrony's credit actions.

平台購買量年增幅介於 3% 至 7% 之間。通常反映出每個帳戶的支出下降，因為客戶減少了較大的門票和可自由支配支出，特別是在家具、電子產品、化妝品和視覺等類別，以及 Synchrony 信貸行動的影響。

Receivables growth across the platforms range from 3% to 10% higher versus last year, primarily driven by payment rate moderation. Dual and co branded cards accounted for 43% of total purchase volume for the quarter and decreased 2% generally due to more selective consumer spend behavior and the impact of our credit actions.

各平台的應收帳款成長較去年增長 3% 至 10%，這主要是由付款率放緩推動的。雙品牌卡和聯名卡佔本季總購買量的 43%，由於消費者支出行為更加挑剔以及我們信貸行動的影響，整體下降了 2%。

The trends we see in the out of partner spend on these products have generally remained consistent with those at the platform level. Our customers continue to be discerning in their discretionary purchases, particularly around larger ticket categories such as home furnishing, travel and entertainment and are prioritizing non-discretionary spend like groceries and pharmacy.

我們在這些產品上的合作夥伴支出趨勢大致上與平台層面的趨勢保持一致。我們的客戶在可自由支配的購買上仍然保持著敏銳的洞察力，特別是在家居、旅行和娛樂等較大的門票類別方面，並且優先考慮雜貨和藥房等非自由支配的支出。

As we would generally expect our customers across credit grades are spending less per transaction in most categories with average transaction values declining 3% versus last year. More specifically, our non-prime customers reduced their average transaction values by about 5% versus last year while prime transaction value is moderated by 3%.

正如我們普遍預期的那樣，不同信用等級的客戶在大多數類別中的每筆交易支出都會減少，平均交易價值比去年下降 3%。更具體地說，我們的非主要客戶的平均交易價值比去年下降了約 5%，而主要客戶的平均交易價值則下降了 3%。

Our super prime customers continue to drive more out of partner spend. The transaction value declines of around 2% year-over-year. That said customers across credit grades are transacting with relatively stable frequency compared to last year which has partially offset the impact of lower transaction values.

我們的超優質客戶持續推動合作夥伴支出增加。交易金額較去年同期下降約2%。也就是說，與去年相比，不同信用等級的顧客的交易頻率相對穩定，這部分抵銷了交易價值較低的影響。

From a payment behavior perspective, we continue to see relative stability in our non-prime segment. Meanwhile, our prime and super prime customers have continued to gradually shift from above minimum payment to minimum payment. The proportion of less than minimum payments in our portfolio remains below the 2017 to 2019 average across all credit segments.

從支付行為的角度來看，我們繼續看到非主要細分市場相對穩定。同時，我們的優質和超優質客戶繼續從高於最低付款額逐步轉向最低付款額。我們的投資組合中低於最低還款額的比例仍低於 2017 年至 2019 年所有信貸領域的平均值。

When taken together, we believe the spend and payment trends we're observing across our portfolio reflect a consumer that is making healthy decisions that align with their respective priorities and budgets. And as our customer needs and priorities continue to shift, Synchrony remains focused on delivering financial solutions with compelling value propositions and broad utility for wherever life takes them. This ability to evolve and enhance our offerings also allows us to deliver loyalty and resilient risk adjusted returns for our partners, providers and merchants and strengthen Synchrony's position as a partner of choice.

綜合來看，我們相信我們在整個投資組合中觀察到的支出和支付趨勢反映了消費者正在做出符合各自優先事項和預算的健康決策。隨著我們的客戶需求和優先事項不斷變化，Synchrony 仍然專注於提供具有令人信服的價值主張和廣泛實用性的財務解決方案，無論生活在何處。這種發展和增強我們產品的能力也使我們能夠為我們的合作夥伴、提供者和商家提供忠誠度和彈性的風險調整回報，並鞏固 Synchrony 作為首選合作夥伴的地位。

During the third quarter, we added or renewed more than 15 partners including [DX] Sporting Goods and Gibson and strategic partnerships like Albertson's. We're proud to extend our partnership with DX, which builds on our more than 20 year long relationship. We will maintain our commitment to athletes through our score rewards credit card program by providing the ability to earn rewards twice as fast, exclusive member only offers and digital account management.

第三季度，我們增加或續簽了超過 15 個合作夥伴，包括 [DX] Sporting Goods 和 Gibson 以及 Albertson 等策略夥伴。我們很榮幸能夠擴大與 DX 的合作關係，這種合作關係建立在我們 20 多年的長期合作關係的基礎上。我們將透過我們的分數獎勵信用卡計劃，提供以兩倍的速度賺取獎勵的能力、僅限會員的獨家優惠和數位帳戶管理，以維持我們對運動員的承諾。

Athletes will be able to continue using these cards online and in stores across the company's 800 plus retail locations including exporting goods, house of sport, golf, galaxy and public lands. Meanwhile, Synchrony's partnership with Gibson, the most iconic brand in the music industry represents what we believe to be an industry first through Gibson's launch of a direct to consumer credit program which is available on Gibson.com and at the Gibson Garage Nashville flagship store.

運動員將能夠繼續在網上和公司 800 多個零售點（包括出口商品、體育之家、高爾夫、銀河和公共土地）的商店中使用這些卡。同時，Synchrony 與音樂產業最具代表性的品牌Gibson 的合作代表了我們認為的行業首創，即Gibson 推出了直接面向消費者的信貸計劃，該計劃可在Gibson.com 和Gibson Garage Nashville 旗艦店購買。

Gibson will also participate as part of our manufacturer OEM sponsorship program to drive customer engagement with their dealer framework, as well as the synchrony, music and sound network. Synchrony is also excited to launch a strategic partnership between CareCredit and Albertsons companies, a leading food and drug retailer in our communities.

Gibson 也將參與我們的製造商 OEM 贊助計劃，以推動客戶與其經銷商框架以及同步、音樂和聲音網路的互動。Synchrony 也很高興能夠在 CareCredit 和我們社區領先的食品和藥品零售商 Albertsons 公司之間建立策略合作夥伴關係。

This collaboration allows customers to use their care credit card to pay for select health and wellness items in nearly 2,200 Albertsons company stores, which includes Albertsons, Safeway, bonds, Acme, Shaws and Jasco. This adds to our expanding list of partners such as Sam's Club, Walgreens and Walmart, where care credit is accepted for payment of select health and wellness products and services.

此次合作允許客戶使用護理信用卡在近 2,200 家 Albertsons 公司商店（包括 Albertsons、Safeway、bond、Acme、Shaws 和 Jasco）購買精選的健康和保健商品。這增加了我們不斷擴大的合作夥伴名單，例如山姆會員店、沃爾格林和沃爾瑪，這些地方接受護理信貸來支付精選的健康和保健產品和服務。

And lastly, synchrony is proud to launch a first of its kind payment experience for pet parents with our patent pending insurance reimbursement functionality that will streamline the process for managing pet health care expenses.

最後，synchrony 很自豪地為寵物父母推出同類支付體驗，其中包括我們正在申請專利的保險報銷功能，該功能將簡化管理寵物醫療保健費用的流程。

Customers who have both a care credit and pets, best insurance product will now be able to have their pets best insurance claims directly reimbursed to their care credit, health and wellness credit card. This seamless new technology reflects synchrony's focus on driving best in class experiences. And through our collaboration with independence pet holdings builds on our commitment to enable more pets to get the veterinary care they need.

同時擁有護理信貸和寵物最佳保險產品的客戶現在可以將寵物最佳保險索賠直接報銷到他們的護理信貸、健康和保健信用卡中。這種無縫的新技術反映了 Synchrony 對推動一流體驗的關注。透過與獨立寵物控股公司的合作，我們致力於讓更多的寵物獲得所需的獸醫護理。

So whether it's through the delivery of scalable innovative financial solutions that empower our customers or the addition and renewal of partnerships that span most consumer spend categories. Synchrony is powering access, flexibility and utility for our customers and partners alike. And in turn, we are driving greater long term value for our stakeholders.

因此，無論是透過提供可擴展的創新金融解決方案來增強我們的客戶能力，還是增加和更新涵蓋大多數消費者支出類別的合作夥伴關係。Synchrony 為我們的客戶和合作夥伴提供存取、靈活性和實用性。反過來，我們正在為利害關係人帶來更大的長期價值。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Brian to discuss our financial performance in greater detail.

這樣，我會將電話轉給布萊恩，更詳細地討論我們的財務表現。

Thanks, Brian, and good morning everyone. Synchrony delivered another quarter of strong financial results demonstrating the resilience of our differentiated business model and our ability to execute across our key strategic priorities to deliver consistently compelling outcome for our stakeholders.

謝謝布萊恩，大家早安。Synchrony 又取得了強勁的財務業績，證明了我們差異化業務模式的彈性以及我們執行關鍵策略優先事項的能力，為我們的利害關係人提供始終如一的令人信服的成果。

Any loan receivables reached $102 million in the third quarter, reflecting growth of 4% compared to last year as the benefit of an approximately 60 basis points decrease in payment rate, more than offset the 4% decline in purchase volume.

第三季應收貸款達到 1.02 億美元，較去年增加 4%，原因是付款率下降約 60 個基點，抵銷了採購量 4% 的下降。

Net revenue grew 10% to [$3.8 billion] due to the combined impact of higher interest of fees, lower RSA and higher other income. Net interest income increased 6% to $4.6 billion as interest and fees grew 7% primarily reflecting growth in average loan receivables and a higher loan receivable yield.

由於費用利息增加、RSA 降低和其他收入增加的綜合影響，淨收入增加 10% 至 [38 億美元]。淨利息收入成長 6%，達到 46 億美元，利息和費用成長 7%，主要反映了平均應收貸款的成長和應收貸款收益率的提高。

Our loan receivable yield grew at 30 basis points due to the combined impact of our product, pricing and policy changes or PPPCs and lower payment rate, partially offset by higher reversals. Total interest bearing liabilities cost was 4.78%, 44 basis points higher year-over-year due to higher benchmark rates.

由於我們的產品、定價和政策變化或 PPPC 以及較低付款率的綜合影響，我們的應收貸款收益率增加了 30 個基點，但部分被較高的沖銷所抵消。由於基準利率上升，有息負債總成本為4.78%，較去年同期上升44個基點。

RSA of $914 million were 3.57% of average loan receivables in the third quarter and declined $65 million versus the prior year primarily driven by higher net charge offs and other income increased to $119 million . Primarily related to the impact of our PPPC related fees which were partially offset by the impact of our pets best disposition and venture investment gains and losses. Provision for credit losses increased to $1.6 billion reflecting higher net charge offs and a $47 million reserve build.

RSA 為 9.14 億美元，佔第三季平均應收貸款的 3.57%，與上年相比減少了 6,500 萬美元，主要是由於淨沖銷增加和其他收入增加至 1.19 億美元。主要與我們的 PPPC 相關費用的影響有關，該影響被我們的寵物最佳處置和風險投資損益的影響部分抵消。信貸損失撥備增至 16 億美元，反映出淨沖銷增加和 4,700 萬美元準備金增加。

Other expenses grew 3% to $1.2 billion which was driven by cost relating to the allied lending acquisition technology investments and preparatory expenses related to the late fee rule change partially offset by lower operational losses.

其他費用成長 3%，達到 12 億美元，這是由與聯合貸款收購技術投資相關的成本以及與滯納金規則變更相關的準備費用推動的，但部分被較低的營運損失所抵消。

The preparatory expenses related to late fee rule change reflected $11 million of incremental costs related to both the execution of our PPPCs and the implementation costs of the rule itself should become effective. Even with these incremental costs, the efficiency ratio was 31.2% for the third quarter, an improvement of approximately 200 basis points versus last year reflecting Synchrony's continued cost, discipline and commitment to driving operational leverage in our business.

與滯納金規則變更相關的準備費用反映了與執行我們的 PPPC 相關的 1100 萬美元增量成本以及規則本身的實施成本應該生效。即使考慮到這些增量成本，第三季的效率仍為 31.2%，比去年提高了約 200 個基點，反映出 Synchrony 持續的成本、紀律和對推動業務營運槓桿的承諾。

Taken together, synchrony generated net earnings of $789 million or $1.94 per diluted share.

總而言之，synchrony 產生的淨利潤為 7.89 億美元，即稀釋後每股收益 1.94 美元。

This produced a return on average assets of 2.6% and a return on tangible common equity of 24.3%.

平均資產報酬率為 2.6%，有形普通股報酬率為 24.3%。

Next, I'll cover our key credit trends on slide. Nine at quarter end, our 30 plus delinquency rate was 4.78% versus 4.40% in the prior year and '16 basis points above our historical average from the third quarter of 2017 to 2019. Our 90 plus delinquency rate was 2.33% versus 2.06% in the prior year and '20 basis points above our historical average from the third quarter of 2017 to 2019.

接下來，我將在投影片上介紹我們的主要信貸趨勢。截至九季末，我們的 30 歲以上拖欠率為 4.78%，而上一年為 4.40%，比 2017 年第三季至 2019 年的歷史平均高出 16 個基點。我們的 90 歲以上老人的拖欠率為 2.33%，而上一年為 2.06%，比 2017 年第三季至 2019 年的歷史平均值高出 20 個基點。

And our net charge off rate was 6.06% in the third quarter versus 4.60% in the prior year and 97 basis points above our historical average from the third quarter of 2017 to 2019. Our allowance for credit losses as a percent of loan receivables was 10.79% which was generally consistent with the second quarter coverage ratio of 10.74%.

第三季的淨沖銷率為 6.06%，去年同期為 4.60%，比 2017 年第三季至 2019 年的歷史平均值高出 97 個基點。我們的信用損失撥備佔應收貸款的百分比為10.79%，與第二季10.74%的覆蓋率基本一致。

On slide 10, the credit actions we've taken from mid-2023 to early 2024 are improving our delinquency trajectory as the rate of year-over-year growth in both 30 plus and 90 plus delinquency rates continue to decelerate.

在幻燈片 10 中，我們從 2023 年中期到 2024 年初採取的信貸行動正在改善我們的拖欠軌跡，因為 30 歲以上和 90 歲以上的拖欠率的同比增長率繼續下降。

We'll continue to closely monitor our portfolio performance as well as credit trends for the broader industry given our share consumer and we'll take additional credit actions if necessary. While the actions we have taken since last year have reduced new account and purchase volume growth in the short term, we expect they will strengthen our portfolios position as we exit 2024 and support our ability to deliver our targeted risk adjusted returns over the long term.

鑑於我們的消費者份額，我們將繼續密切監控我們的投資組合表現以及更廣泛行業的信貸趨勢，如有必要，我們將採取額外的信貸行動。雖然我們自去年以來採取的行動在短期內減少了新帳戶和購買量的成長，但我們預計，隨著我們退出2024 年，這些行動將加強我們的投資組合地位，並支持我們實現長期目標風險調整回報的能力。

Turning to slide 11, Synchrony's funding capital and liquidity continued to provide a strong foundation for our business. During the third quarter, Synchrony grew our direct deposits by approximately $780 million reduced our broker deposits by $1.5 billion and issued $750 million of senior unsecured fixed to flowing rate notes due in 2030.

轉向投影片 11，Synchrony 的融資資本和流動性繼續為我們的業務提供堅實的基礎。第三季度，Synchrony 的直接存款增加了約 7.8 億美元，經紀商存款減少了 15 億美元，並發行了 7.5 億美元的 2030 年到期的優先無擔保固定流動利率票據。

At quarter end, deposits represent 84% of our total funding while secured and unsecured debt each representing 8% of our total funding, respectively. Total liquid assets and undrawn credit facilities were $22.4 billion. And $1.9 billion increase versus last year and represented 18.8% of total asset, a 60 basis points increase from last year.

截至季末，存款占我們總資金的 84%，而有擔保和無擔保債務分別占我們總資金的 8%。流動資產和未提取信貸額度總額為 224 億美元。比去年增加19億美元，佔總資產的18.8%，比去年增加60個基點。

Focusing on our capital ratios. As a reminder, we elected to take the benefit of the [Cecil] transition rules issued by the joint federal banking agencies. Synchrony will make a final transition adjustment to our regulatory capital metrics of approximately 50 basis points in January 2025.

關注我們的資本比率。提醒一下，我們選擇受益於聯合聯邦銀行機構發布的[塞西爾]過渡規則。Synchrony 將於 2025 年 1 月對我們的監理資本指標進行約 50 個基點的最終過渡調整。

The impact of Cecil has already been recognized in our income statement and balance sheet. Under the Cecil transition rules, we ended the third quarter with a CET one ratio at 13.1% 30 basis points higher than last year's 12.8%.

塞西爾的影響力已經在我們的損益表和資產負債表中得到了認可。根據塞西爾過渡規則，我們第三季末的 CET 一級比率為 13.1%，比去年的 12.8% 高出 30 個基點。

Our Tier-1 capital ratio was 14.3% 70 basis points above last year, our total capital ratio increased 70 basis points to 16.4%. And our Tier-1 capital plus reserves ratio on a fully phased in basis increased to 24.5% compared to 22.9% last year.

我們的一級資本比率為14.3%，比去年提高70個基點，總資本比率提高70個基點至16.4%。全面分階段一級資本加準備率由去年的22.9%提高至24.5%。

They returned $399 million to shareholders during the third quarter which consisted of $300 million in share purchases and $99 million in common stock dividends. As of quarter end, we had $700 million remaining in our share of purchase authorization for the period ending June 30, 2025.

他們在第三季向股東返還了 3.99 億美元，其中包括 3 億美元的股票購買和 9,900 萬美元的普通股股息。截至本季末，截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日期間，我們的購買授權份額中剩餘 7 億美元。

Remains well positioned to return capital shareholders as guided by our business performance, market conditions, regulatory restrictions and subject to our capital plan. Turning to our outlook, Synchrony remains focused on executing our key strategic priorities and taking the appropriate actions to reinforce our business performance for years to come, particularly our ability to deliver our long term financial targets on average over time.

在我們的業務表現、市場條件、監管限制的指導下，並遵守我們的資本計劃，我們仍然能夠很好地回報資本股東。談到我們的前景，Synchrony 仍然專注於執行我們的關鍵策略優先事項，並採取適當的行動來加強我們未來幾年的業務績效，特別是我們隨著時間的推移平均實現長期財務目標的能力。

We have been closely monitoring our portfolio and believe that both our credit actions and the PPPCs are performing in line with our expectations. With the first quarter of our PPPCs in effect, we are experiencing slightly lower paper statement fee income than expected, but stronger enrollment in [ebel]. We're also experiencing less customer attrition than expected, which is a testament to the value propositions of the products we offer.

我們一直在密切關注我們的投資組合，並相信我們的信貸行動和 PPPC 的表現符合我們的預期。隨著第一季 PPPC 的生效，我們的紙本報表費用收入略低於預期，但入學人數增加[玉寶]。我們的客戶流失率也低於預期，這證明了我們所提供產品的價值主張。

We will continue to track the financial and operational impact on our customers, partners and portfolios to determine alongside our partners whether any refinements to our strategies are warranted to achieve our shared objectives of sustainable risk adjusted growth and our targeted long term returns.

我們將繼續追蹤對我們的客戶、合作夥伴和投資組合的財務和營運影響，以便與我們的合作夥伴一起確定是否需要對我們的策略進行任何改進，以實現我們可持續風險調整成長和目標長期回報的共同目標。

As a reminder specifically related to the framework around the pending late fee rule change. And our PPP CS there continues to be uncertainty regarding the timing and outcome of late fee related litigation that was filed in March. The potential changes in consumer behavior that could occur as a result of AP rule change and any potential changes in consumer behavior in response to the PPPCs, we and the broader industry have implemented as a result of the new rule.

特別提醒一下，與懸而未決的滯納金規則變更相關的框架。我們的 PPP CS 3 月提起的滯納金相關訴訟的時間和結果仍然存在不確定性。AP 規則變更可能導致消費者行為發生潛在變化，以及我們和更廣泛的產業因新規則而實施的針對 PPPC 的消費者行為潛在變化。

Outcomes, natural performance rates, any of these uncertainties could impact our outlook. With that framework, let's turn to our outlook for the remainder of 2024. We expect the consumer to continue to manage their spending, which when combined with our credit actions should result in low single digit decline in purchase volume for the fourth quarter. We continue to expect payment rates to moderate which when combined with the purchase buying expectations should contribute to low single digit growth in ending loan receivables compared to last year.

結果、自然績效率以及任何這些不確定因素都可能影響我們的前景。有了這個框架，讓我們展望 2024 年剩餘時間。我們預計消費者將繼續管理他們的支出，這與我們的信貸行動相結合應該會導致第四季度的購買量出現低個位數下降。我們繼續預期付款率將放緩，與購買預期相結合，應會導致期末應收貸款較去年達到低個位數成長。

Even if the late fee rule was not implemented on October 1 as assumed in our previous outlook and the continued uncertainty with regard to late fee litigation, we assume the late fee rule will not become effective in 2024.

即使滯納金規則沒有像我們先前的展望中假設的那樣於 10 月 1 日實施，並且滯納金訴訟的持續不確定性，我們也認為滯納金規則不會在 2024 年生效。

As a result, we expect net interest income to remain sequentially flat as the impacts of our PPPCs are offset by seasonally higher reversals. Other income is expected to remain consistent with the third quarter level. [RCA] will continue to line program and company performance and should decrease sequentially on a dollar basis and as a percentage of average loan receivables reflecting the net impact of seasonally higher net charge offs on flat revenue.

因此，我們預計淨利息收入將保持環比持平，因為我們的 PPPC 的影響被季節性較高的逆轉所抵消。其他收入預計將與第三季水準保持一致。 [RCA] 將繼續與計劃和公司業績掛鉤，並應按美元計算和占平均應收貸款的百分比連續下降，反映季節性較高的淨沖銷對固定收入的淨影響。

Other expenses expect to increase sequentially with the seasonally higher growth. And from a credit perspective, we expect delinquencies to follow seasonality in the fourth quarter. We also continue to expect the second half, 2024 net charge off rate will be lower than the first half.

其他費用預計將隨著季節性的較高增長而環比增加。從信貸角度來看，我們預期第四季拖欠率將遵循季節性。我們也繼續預計，2024 年下半年淨沖銷率將低於上半年。

Lastly, we continue to expect our year end 2024 reserve rate to be generally in line with the year end 2023 rate. Given these assumptions, Synchrony expects to deliver fully polluted earnings per share between $8.45 and $8.55 for the full year 2024.

最後，我們繼續預期 2024 年底準備金率將與 2023 年底準備金率基本一致。考慮到這些假設，Synchrony 預計 2024 年全年的完全污染每股收益將在 8.45 美元至 8.55 美元之間。

The approximate 80% improvement from the midpoint of our prior full year EPS outlook reflects a combination of factors. First, the rule or assumption that the late fee will be implemented on October 1, 2024, and therefore also the removal of the related benefit from the RSA offset.

與我們先前的全年每股收益預期中位數相比，大約提高了 80%，這反映了多種因素的綜合作用。首先，滯納金將於 2024 年 10 月 1 日實施的規則或假設，因此也會從 RSA 抵銷中刪除相關權益。

Second, the impact of our PPPCs and the increase in RSA associated with those changes. And finally, strong performance of our core business as we enter the fourth quarter. In summary, Synchrony has continued to deliver on key strategic priorities that matter most to our stakeholders. We remain confident in the measures we've taken thus far to strengthen our business in an evolving environment and believe we're well positioned to drive resilient risk adjusted returns over the long term.

其次，我們的 PPPC 的影響以及與這些變化相關的 RSA 的增加。最後，進入第四季後，我們的核心業務表現強勁。總之，Synchrony 繼續交付對我們的利害關係人最重要的關鍵策略優先事項。我們對迄今為止為在不斷變化的環境中加強業務而採取的措施仍然充滿信心，並相信我們有能力在長期內推動具有彈性的風險調整回報。

With that, I'll now turn the call back over to Brian for his closing thoughts.

現在，我將把電話轉回給布萊恩，聽聽他的結束語。

Thanks, Brian. Synchrony is leveraging our proprietary data and analytics, our deep lending expertise and our innovative digital capabilities to provide seamless customer experiences, compelling value propositions and enhanced utility with each customer interaction we have.

謝謝，布萊恩。Synchrony 正在利用我們專有的數據和分析、深厚的貸款專業知識和創新的數位能力，提供無縫的客戶體驗、引人注目的價值主張，並增強與我們每次客戶互動的效用。

We are increasingly anywhere our customers want to be met with financial solutions that drive loyalty and sales for our partners providers and small businesses. And we are consistently deepening our leadership position while driving sustainable risk adjusted growth and long term value for our shareholders. With that, I'll turn the call back to Katherine to open the Q&A

我們越來越多地在客戶希望獲得金融解決方案的任何地方提供服務，以提高我們的合作夥伴提供者和小型企業的忠誠度和銷售額。我們不斷深化我們的領導地位，同時推動可持續的風險調整成長和股東的長期價值。這樣，我會將電話轉回凱瑟琳來開始問答

That concludes our prepared remarks. We will now begin the Q&A session. So that we can accommodate as many of you as possible. I'd like to ask the participants to please limit yourself to one primary and one follow up question. If you have additional questions, the investor relations team will be available after the call. Operator, please start the Q&A session.

我們準備好的演講到此結束。我們現在開始問答環節。這樣我們就可以容納盡可能多的人。我想請參與者將自己限制在一個主要問題和一個後續問題。如果您還有其他問題，投資者關係團隊將在電話會議後為您提供協助。接線生，請開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Ryan Nash, Goldman Sachs.

瑞恩·納什，高盛。

Hey, good morning everyone. Brian, maybe you could unpack the NII guy for us a little bit. I understand 4Q is seasonally lower from reversals as you highlighted. But how did the PPPCs fit in along with your liability sensitive position? Which I don't think you're highlighting your comments.

嘿，大家早安。Brian，也許你可以稍微解開 NII 人員的面紗。我了解，正如您所強調的那樣，第四季度因逆轉而季節性較低。但是 PPPC 如何適應您對責任敏感的立場呢？我認為您沒有強調您的評論。

And then I guess just given forward curve expectations outside of seasonality. Do you expect the NIM to have a continued upward bias over the next several quarters? Thanks.

然後我想只是給了季節性之外的遠期曲線預期。您預計淨利差在未來幾季會持續上行嗎？謝謝。

Yeah, thanks Ryan. So when you think about NII sequentials, you step into the fourth quarter. The first, when you think about the trends that are into delinquency and units flowing into delinquency, dollars assessed on late fees should be down on in 4Q versus 3Q.

是的，謝謝瑞安。因此，當您考慮 NII 連續劇時，您將進入第四季度。首先，當您考慮拖欠的趨勢和流入拖欠的單位時，第四季度的滯納金評估金額應該會比第三季有所下降。

You combine that with higher reversals that that is essentially offsetting the positivity you should see and you will see on interest income. And the benefit that we see in interest expense. So it kind of washes out in the quarter more just a function of how the favorability from delinquecies impacting late fees.

你將其與更高的逆轉相結合，這基本上抵消了你應該看到的積極性，你將看到利息收入。我們在利息支出中看到的好處。因此，它在本季的消失更多地取決於拖欠費用如何影響滯納金。

And you start to think out a bit against the net interest margin for a second, you should continue to see the interest component relative to the PPPCs as well as the rate as payment rates decline, increase and guide the NIM higher.

你開始稍微考慮一下淨利差，你應該繼續看到相對於 PPPC 的利息成分以及支付利率下降、增加並引導 NIM 走高的利率。

And you should also see a benefit of interest expense that will lag a little bit because of the reset of the debt stack, particularly in the CDS that happens over the first Half of the year. So there's generally more, more tailwinds as you think about margin as you move into next year. But it's going to be a little bit lagged given the reset of CDS in the first half of the year, vocal which happens in the second quarter.

而且您還應該看到利息支出的好處，由於債務堆疊的重置，特別是在今年上半年發生的 CDS 中，利息支出的好處會稍微滯後。因此，當你進入明年時，當你考慮利潤率時，通常會有更多、更多的有利因素。但考慮到上半年 CDS 的重置（特別是在第二季發生），它會有點滯後。

Got it. And then as my follow up question. Your outlook for credit calls for delinquencies to follow seasonality, I guess. First, do you expect losses to do the same? And then in terms of delinquencies following seasonality? Like, what does that mean for the trajectory of losses into '25? And if they do follow seasonality can losses move back below 6% into next year. Thank you.

知道了。然後作為我的後續問題。我猜，您對信貸的展望要求拖欠率遵循季節性。首先，您預期損失也會發生同樣的情況嗎？那麼季節性後的欠款情況又如何呢？例如，這對 25 年的虧損軌跡又意味著什麼？如果他們確實遵循季節性，明年的損失可能會回落至 6% 以下。謝謝。

Yeah. So Ryan, we'll be back in January to talk really, really about next year. But, but I think here's a couple of things, I would think about credit as, as a whole. First, there's probably four points that raised number one, the delinquency trends themselves. We're seeing strong entry rate which is better than the prepandemic period which is continuing to benefit the flow into delinquency.

是的。Ryan，我們將在一月回來真正討論明年的事情。但是，但我認為有幾件事，我會從整體上考慮信用。首先，可能有四點引起了第一點，即犯罪趨勢本身。我們看到強勁的進入率比大流行前時期要好，這繼續有利於犯罪的流入。

We're seeing early stage delinquency really being stable as far as its performance month on month. And then we're seeing some improvement in the last several months in late stage collections which are positive.

我們看到，就其逐月表現而言，早期拖欠確實穩定。然後我們看到過去幾個月後期系列的一些改進是積極的。

So I think the delinquency trends are, are, are doing fairly well. When you think about that relative to seasonality, the last several months, we've actually been low to mid-single digit, better than seasonality when you look at '17 to '19 period.

所以我認為犯罪趨勢現在、現在、都表現得相當不錯。當你考慮相對於季節性的情況時，過去幾個月，我們實際上處於低至中個位數的水平，比 17 至 19 年期間的季節性要好。

So that's a favorable trend that continues to go back. Then you go back the last several months again, I think I've highlighted publicly the vintage performance, both of the second half of '23 in the first half of '24 albeit very early. It's better than the '18 vintages. And again, I think you can see both in the purchase volume and the new account origination.

所以這是一個繼續回落的有利趨勢。然後你再回到過去幾個月，我想我已經公開強調了23年下半年和24年上半年的老式表現，儘管很早。它比 18 年份的要好。再說一遍，我認為您可以在購買量和新帳戶創建中看到。

Most certainly the credit actions are having some effect there which I think bolsters credit as we move back through, our underwriting is designed to give us that, that 5.5% to 6%. So the intention and the intention would be that we would get back to that point. Again we're moving down. I can see in the slides that the year-over-year growth and delinquecies, both 30 plus and 90 plus continue to decline.

最肯定的是，信貸行動正在產生一些影響，我認為這會在我們回過頭來時增強信貸，我們的承保旨在為我們提供 5.5％ 至 6％ 的利率。所以我們的意圖和意圖是我們會回到那個點。我們再次向下移動。我在幻燈片中可以看到，30 歲以上和 90 歲以上的人的同比增長和拖欠率都在繼續下降。

So again, tracking to our expectations as we move through the remaining part of '24.

再次強調，隨著我們度過 24 年後的剩餘部分，我們將遵循我們的期望。

Thanks, Brian.

謝謝，布萊恩。

Thanks Ryan. Have a good day.

謝謝瑞安。祝你有美好的一天。

Terry Ma, Barclays.

馬特里，巴克萊銀行。

Hey, thank you. Good morning. So you called out a 30 basis points year-over-year increase in loan yields from PPPC lower payment rates and all set by interest reversals. Any way you can kind of quantify each of those components and maybe just help us think about how that PPPC component kind of grows into next year.

嘿，謝謝你。早安.因此，您提出，由於 PPPC 較低的還款利率和利息逆轉，貸款收益率將年增 30 個基點。無論如何，你可以量化每個組成部分，也許只是幫助我們思考 PPPC 組成部分如何在明年發展。

Yeah, Terry, we're not going to break out the individual components of the PPPCs by the lines, but most certainly the benefit is flowing through on the interest, interest yield line. Number one, you can, it is math a little bit when you think sequentially given the, the game in the second quarter on the Visa shares, but, but clearly it's showing up another income.

是的，特里，我們不會按條線分解 PPPC 的各個組成部分，但最肯定的是，收益會流經利息、利息收益率線。第一，你可以，當你考慮到第二季 Visa 股票的遊戲時，這有點數學，但是，但顯然它顯示了另一筆收入。

Again, this is the first full quarter that we have the first phase of the CIT in. We continue to expect that to build into next year. I think when we come back in January, we'll try to provide a little bit more view on that. I think when you take a step back, Terry, the important thing and I highlighted in my prepared remarks is that the actions we've taken have generally been in line with our expectations. There's a positivity in the fact that, , customer attrition is not. As high our expectations. Now, again, that would have had a reserve release.

同樣，這是我們實施 CIT 第一階段的第一個完整季度。我們仍然預計這種情況會持續到明年。我想當我們一月份回來時，我們會嘗試對此提供更多的看法。我認為，特里，你退後一步，我在準備好的發言中強調的重要一點是，我們採取的行動總體上符合我們的預期。一個正面的事實是，客戶流失並非如此。我們的期望一樣高。現在，再一次，這將有一個儲備版本。

So it's negative from a financial perspective, but it's really better from a customer standpoint as they recognize the value propositions of our cards. We did highlight paper statements with a little bit lower than expectations. Partially due to softeners, partially due to our accounts being a little bit lower than expectations, but all in all good.

因此，從財務角度來看，這是負面的，但從客戶的角度來看，這確實更好，因為他們認識到我們卡片的價值主張。我們確實強調了紙本報表的表現略低於預期。部分是由於軟化劑，部分是由於我們的帳目略低於預期，但總的來說還是不錯的。

Option of the bill and our customers willingness to change behavior and do that has been positive. So when we look at that, generally speaking, it aligns. So even though there's a little bit less customer attrition, that generally means the core is performing a little bit better. So as we sit here today, , we are where we are feeling good about where we are, but we'll continue to watch customer behavior and we'll certainly watch the market. And a lot of issuers have already started to implement changes as this rule comes effective.

該法案的選擇以及我們的客戶願意改變行為並這樣做的意願都是積極的。所以當我們看到這一點時，一般來說，它是一致的。因此，儘管客戶流失量有所減少，但這通常意味著核心的效能會更好一些。因此，當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們對自己所處的位置感覺良好，但我們將繼續觀察客戶行為，我們肯定會觀察市場。隨著該規則的生效，許多發行人已經開始實施變革。

Got it. That's helpful. And then just to follow up on credit, it seems, credit performance is more or less performing in line with your expectations. But as I look at the charge off rate for this year, it's running somewhat north of 6%. I don't want to tie it to your initial guide that maybe just talk about how credit performance has evolved relative to kind of what you expected coming into this year?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後只是跟進信用狀況，看來信用表現或多或少符合你的預期。但當我查看今年的沖銷率時，我發現它有點高於 6%。我不想將其與您最初的指南聯繫起來，該指南可能只是談論信用績效相對於您今年的預期如何演變？

Yeah. The way I think about it, Terry is we took some actions really in the late first quarter, early second quarter, again to try to set up and protect ourselves against any deterioration that could happen late this year into next year. So we took those actions.

是的。特里，我認為，我們在第一季末、第二季初確實採取了一些行動，再次試圖做好準備並保護自己免受今年年底到明年可能發生的任何惡化的影響。所以我們採取了這些行動。

Most certainly, I think you've seen some of the purchase volume which is slightly lower than our expectations that unfortunately has an impact on the denominator which brings the rate a little bit higher than what you think about. But again, I think that the fact that we're not taking broad based actions today gives us some credit, some confidence in credit and us certainly, you've heard my points with Ryan a little bit earlier around the four things that, that we look at to say, listen, we feel good about where we are as we enter into the fourth quarter.

最肯定的是，我認為您已經看到一些購買量略低於我們的預期，不幸的是，這對分母產生了影響，導致利率比您想像的要高一些。但我再次認為，我們今天沒有採取廣泛的行動這一事實給了我們一些信用，對信用的一些信心，當然，你早些時候已經聽過我與瑞安關於以下四件事的觀點：我們看著說，聽著，當我們進入第四季時，我們對自己的處境感覺良好。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Thanks, Terry. Have a good day.

謝謝，特里。祝你有美好的一天。

Don Fandetti, Wells Fargo.

唐范德蒂，富國銀行。

Hi, good morning. Brian, you mentioned some improvement over the last few months in late stage collections. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about that if that just kind of make catch up. And generally speaking, is it harder to execute on collections today versus prior?

嗨，早安。Brian，您提到了過去幾個月後期系列的一些改進。我想知道如果這樣能趕上的話，你是否可以談談這一點。一般來說，今天的集合執行起來比以前更困難嗎？

Yes. Thank you. Good morning, Don. Let me start with the latter part of your question. Is it harder to collect today? Most certainly, I think if you look at this versus a number of years ago, most certainly making customer contacts a little bit tougher, but that's where we've expanded and through the pandemic, investing in digital collections, investing in other forms and other channels in which we can connect with the customer in order to kind of get those collections done such as text and things like that. So it is a little bit tougher.

是的。謝謝。早安，唐。讓我從你問題的後半部開始。今天收集起來難嗎？當然，我認為，如果你將這一點與幾年前相比，肯定會讓客戶聯繫變得更加困難，但這就是我們在疫情期間擴張的領域，投資於數位館藏、投資於其他形式和其他方式。所以有點難。

I think it's a game where you have to deploy more products, than you do have to do just get more collectors on the phone. And now, and most certainly, the rules have, have evolved where the number of collections you can make to someone have declined. But I think we've adapted To that.

我認為這是一款你必須部署更多產品的遊戲，而不僅僅是在手機上吸引更多收藏家。現在，可以肯定的是，規則已經發生了變化，你可以向某人收集的物品數量已經減少。但我認為我們已經適應了這一點。

I think when you think about the late stage for a second, when your early stage has deteriorated quite a bit, what flows into the back potentially has the ability to be slightly better and able to collect. So while I look at the late stage, it is still performing worse than 2019 and '20 the prepandemic period, it has started to improve more recently, which we take is optimistic with regard to performance. But again, it is worse than, than what it was.

我想當你思考後期時，當你的早期已經惡化了很多時，流入後面的東西可能有能力稍微好一點並能夠收集。因此，雖然我看後期階段，它的表現仍然比 2019 年和 20 年大流行前時期更差，但最近開始有所改善，我們對錶現持樂觀態度。但再一次，它比原來更糟。

And you would expect a little bit of that. If you have very positive entry rate into delinquency, what flows in is a little bit tougher to collect. So we would have anticipated both early stage and late stage to be worse. But right now in the last I'd say several months, we've seen a little bit of improvement in our late stage collections.

你會期待一些這樣的事情。如果您的拖欠率非常高，那麼流入的資金就很難收集。因此，我們預計早期和晚期都會更糟。但我想說的是，在過去的幾個月裡，我們看到了後期系列的一些改進。

Got it. My follow up just, I know there's a lot of concern around the low end. It seems like, , your customers on the loan are kind of managing changing behavior -- continue to change behavior, but it doesn't seem like it's sort of accelerating in terms of a pressure point. Is that fair?

知道了。我的後續行動是，我知道人們對低端市場有很多擔憂。看起來，你的貸款客戶正在管理不斷變化的行為——繼續改變行為，但就壓力點而言，這似乎並沒有加速。這樣公平嗎？

Yeah, I think that's absolutely fair. I mean, we look at it on a couple of different ways when you look at payment rate, people making payments, when we look at the trends by credit rate, which if you say that somewhat aligns with the income decile. You're seeing more of the movement in the prime so that 660 to 780 range, you're seeing a little bit more movement there in the days. You're not really seeing as much movement of the non-prime in there. I want to say the movement into mid-day is about a point difference on the prime and it was half of that in the non-prime. So we're not seeing stress when it comes to payment.

是的，我認為這絕對公平。我的意思是，當你觀察付款率、人們付款時，當我們透過信用率觀察趨勢時，我們會用幾種不同的方式來看待它，如果你說這在某種程度上與收入十分位數一致的話。你會看到更多的運動在黃金時段，所以在 660 到 780 的範圍內，你會看到這些天有更多的運動。你並沒有真正看到那裡的非素數有那麼多的運動。我想說的是，到中午的走勢在黃金時段大約有一個分差，而在非黃金時段則只有一半。因此，我們在付款方面沒有看到壓力。

I think when you look at the K Shaped recovery, clearly affordability has impacted some of the lower end consumer and they pull back spending and they're managing fairly well. So I think when we look at those two combined, we don't see stress in the consumer. We see them actually doing somewhat rational things right now. So it's more normalization. But again, when you still look back against the prime customers, they are paying your rates still above the 2019 level. So we don't necessarily see signs of stress in the low end today.

我認為，當你觀察 K 型復甦時，明顯的負擔能力已經影響了一些低端消費者，他們減少了支出，而且管理得相當好。因此，我認為當我們將這兩者結合起來時，我們並沒有看到消費者有壓力。我們看到他們現在實際上在做一些理性的事情。所以它更加規範化。但同樣，當您回顧主要客戶時，您會發現他們支付的費率仍然高於 2019 年的水平。因此，今天我們不一定會看到低端面臨壓力的跡象。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thanks Don. Have a Good day.

謝謝唐。祝你有美好的一天。

Moshe Orenbuch, TD Cowen.

摩西·奧倫布赫，TD·考恩。

Great. So Brian, I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about the slowdown in spending volume and sort of separate it between the impacts of kind of your own tightening, consumer preferences and then perhaps also the policy changes. One of the questions we've gotten is, do you think I know you said that attrition wasn't affected by that? But what about spending volumes? So those three factors. Thanks.

偉大的。所以布萊恩，我想知道你是否可以談談支出量放緩，並將其與你自己的緊縮政策、消費者偏好以及政策變化的影響分開。我們收到的問題之一是，你認為我知道你說過員工流失不受此影響嗎？但支出量又如何呢？這三個因素。謝謝。

Yeah, first of all, good morning, Moshe. Thanks for the question. So let me start where you ended. When you look at the actions in which we took in the portfolio with regards to pricing changes in the leg. The positive news is that we were able to have a control group in which we tested against that. So when we look at volume changes between the people who receive [CITS] and those who didn't receive the CITS, there's not a material difference.

是的，首先，早安，摩西。謝謝你的提問。那麼就讓我從你結束的地方開始。當你看到我們在投資組合中針對價格變化採取的行動。正面的消息是，我們能夠有一個對照組來進行測試。因此，當我們觀察接受 [CITS] 的人和未接受 CITS 的人之間的數量變化時，發現沒有實質差異。

So we somewhat have a base to say that the actions having either created silent attrition that we're not aware of. So that's one. I think the latter part of your question. I think when you look at the purchase of value in and of itself, what you see is most certainly across the Board almost transaction values coming down. So the consumer is trading down a bit.

因此，我們有理由說，這些行為造成了我們沒有意識到的無聲消耗。這就是其中之一。我認為你問題的後半部。我認為，當你審視價值購買本身時，你所看到的肯定是交易價值幾乎全面下降。因此，消費者的交易量有所下降。

We see that and I use the example of mattresses, where the frequency maybe hasn't moved down as much. But the average transaction value has moved down as consumers say, listen, I'm willing to purchase a mattress, but then again, I'm not willing to spend $4,000 I'm going to go down to something at [2,500]. And we've seen that across the board in retailers and I think you see it generally speaking across the Board, I mean, in discretionary items, even in our health and wellness business, you see it in Cosmetics and Lasix things. That can be deferred.

我們看到了這一點，我用床墊為例，其中頻率可能沒有下降那麼多。但平均交易價值已經下降，因為消費者會說，聽著，我願意買床墊，但話又說回來，我不願意花 4,000 美元，我會降低價格[2,500]。我們已經在零售商中全面看到了這一點，我認為一般來說，在非必需品中，甚至在我們的健康和保健業務中，您在化妝品和 Lasix 商品中都看到了這一點。這可以推遲。

Now that that's a short term impact. Well, certainly that will create a tailwind at some point because those types of procedures don't go away. And you're right. Some of the actions we took. We had a modest impact on purchase volume, a more meaningful impact on new accounts in order to make sure that the origination of the books are at risk adjusted returns that are attractive to us.

現在這是短期影響。嗯，這肯定會在某個時候產生順風，因為這些類型的程序不會消失。你是對的。我們採取的一些行動。我們對購買量產生了適度的影響，對新帳戶產生了更有意義的影響，以確保書籍的來源具有對我們有吸引力的風險調整回報。

Maybe to kind of at a high level for either Brian, as you think about the underlying economic environment, we've been in a period where wage growth has exceeded inflation, although the consumer still feels kind of pressured and is still in that process as you pointed out of trading down.

也許對布萊恩來說，當你考慮潛在的經濟環境時，我們正處於薪資成長超過通貨膨脹的時期，儘管消費者仍然感到壓力，並且仍然處於這個過程中，因為你指出不要進行下跌交易。

When you think about the sort of things that you are looking for to try and jump start or reverse some of those tightening, what are the things that you'd be looking for kind of from a macro standpoint and maybe talk a little bit about that? Thank you.

當你思考你正在尋找哪些東西來嘗試啟動或扭轉一些緊縮政策時，從宏觀角度來看你會尋找哪些東西，也許可以談談這一點？謝謝。

Yeah, Moshe. Maybe I'll start on this one. Look, I think to Brian's point that consumer is still in pretty good shape. The trends that we're seeing are pretty similar across the industry. Inflation is having an impact. But I think to your point, the strong labor market is definitely helping to offset some of that pressure.

是的，摩西。也許我會從這個開始。聽著，我認為布萊恩認為消費者的狀況仍然相當良好。我們看到的趨勢在整個行業中非常相似。通貨膨脹正在產生影響。但我認為就你的觀點而言，強勁的勞動市場肯定有助於抵銷部分壓力。

And consumers are slowing spend, but they're doing it in a very, in a rational disciplined way. We actually like the fact that we can see that they're managing to a budget, they're navigating the higher cost of goods. This isn't a new trend. We started to see it earlier this year. You're seeing it a little bit more broad based right now, but not in a concerning way. I think from a credit perspective, this is exactly what we wanted to see. Some of that is pulled back on behalf of the consumer. And some of that is just the actions that we took.

消費者正在放緩支出，但他們是以一種非常理性、紀律嚴明的方式這樣做的。事實上，我們喜歡這樣一個事實：我們可以看到他們正在管理預算，他們正在應對更高的商品成本。這不是一個新趨勢。我們今年早些時候開始看到它。你現在看到它的基礎更加廣泛，但不是以一種令人擔憂的方式。我認為從信用的角度來看，這正是我們希望看到的。其中一些是代表消費者收回的。其中一些只是我們採取的行動。

But again, I think similar to credit, you're just seeing spend kind of move back to a normalized level. I think when credit levels off and you start to see some stability. There's still a lot of uncertainty out there and I think when those clouds start to clear, then you start to get back to what we would consider more normal growth in the business driving new accounts back to levels that you would be similar to prior to this year.

但我再次認為，與信貸類似，您只是看到支出回到了正常化水平。我認為當信貸趨於平穩時，你就會開始看到一些穩定性。仍然存在著許多不確定性，我認為當這些陰雲開始散去時，你就會開始回到我們認為的業務更正常的成長狀態，推動新帳戶回到與之前類似的水平年。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Thanks Moshe. Have a good day.

謝謝摩西。祝你有美好的一天。

Sanjay Sakhrani, KBW.

桑傑·薩赫拉尼 (Sanjay Sakhrani)，KBW。

Thanks. Good morning. Maybe it's to close the loop on credit. Brian, maybe just talk about the reserve rate trend line, maybe how we should think about the direction into next year. I know you're not giving guidance for next year. I don't know if you're giving guidance by your end, but like just to think about when we migrate back to some normalized levels of reserve rate.

謝謝。早安.也許是為了關閉信用循環。布萊恩，也許只是談談準備金率趨勢線，也許我們該如何思考明年的方向。我知道你不會為明年提供指導。我不知道你最終是否會提供指導，但想一下我們什麼時候會恢復到一些正常化的準備率水準。

Yeah. Thank you. Good morning Sanjay. I think the guide we kind of give you is that the reserve rate at the end of this year will generally be in line with the reserve rate at the end of last year, which was 10.26% or 10.3%.

是的。謝謝。早安，桑傑。我認為我們給大家的指導是，今年年底的準備金率總體上會與去年年底的準備金率保持一致，即10.26%或10.3%。

I know people are probably focusing on the term generally. Obviously, when you look at a year-end number and that's a big seasonal factor just really how the receivable develops and how it plays out. I think most certainly, , I've given you some of the delinquency trends that builds into the, the quantitative model. And again, I think we've seen, while it's been a little bit choppy, the macroeconomic environment being a little bit more stable, we're pleased that the Federal Reserve did lower rates.

我知道人們可能普遍關注這個詞。顯然，當你查看年終數據時，你會發現這是一個很大的季節性因素，實際上就是應收帳款的發展和發揮方式。我認為毫無疑問，我已經向您提供了定量模型中構建的一些犯罪趨勢。再說一次，我認為我們已經看到，雖然宏觀經濟環境有點波動，但變得更加穩定，我們很高興聯準會降低了利率。

So again, I think as we exit out of this year we generally in line with last year, I think you kind of have some indication how you think about the lost trajectory. And most certainly, I don't think we see anything today that says to us. We're not going to continue to march back towards that day one. So most certainly, as you see the delinquency levels which are slightly above where we were in the prepandemic period, right? When you compare it back for 30 plus and 90 plus, as that as that moves back towards normal, we would expect the reserve rate to continue to flow down absent make.

再說一次，我認為，當我們退出今年時，我們總體上與去年一致，我認為你已經有了一些跡象表明你如何看待失去的軌跡。最肯定的是，我認為我們今天沒有看到任何對我們有意義的事情。我們不會繼續回到第一天。因此，正如您所看到的，拖欠水平略高於大流行前時期的水平，這是肯定的，對吧？當您將其與 30+ 和 90+ 進行比較時，隨著其恢復正常，我們預計準備金率將繼續下降。

Okay, great. And maybe on the [CSPB lazy] rules, I guess you, Brian, we talked a lot about sort of the behavior of the consumer, but has anything changed in terms of when you expect to fully mitigate the impact to the extent it goes in sometime next year and then, and maybe if it doesn't happen, like, what's, how should we think about the game plan if it doesn't go into effect? Do you claw back some of the changes that you've made or, or do you do other things? And I'm just trying to think through the implications there. Thanks.

好的，太好了。也許在 [CSPB 懶惰] 規則上，我想你，布萊恩，我們談論了很多關於消費者行為的問題，但是在你期望何時完全減輕影響方面有什麼變化嗎？它沒有發生，例如，如果遊戲計劃沒有生效，我們應該如何考慮它？你會收回你所做的一些改變，還是做其他事情？我只是想思考其中的涵義。謝謝。

Yeah. Let me start in and see if Brian has any additional comments to it. First part of your question, Sanjay, it doesn't really impact the point of neutrality, right? It really goes from the starting point to the neutrality point. What's the trough level depending upon when the leafy rule kind of comes into play?

是的。讓我開始看看布萊恩是否還有其他評論。你的問題的第一部分，Sanjay，它並沒有真正影響中立點，對吧？它確實是從起點到中立點。低谷水平取決於綠葉規則何時發揮作用？

So I don't think it's necessarily one where we look back and say that the early performance, we've seen changes that exit of neutrality, based upon our analysis. So I think that piece of it remains in place. With regard to when the rule may become effective.

因此，我認為根據我們的分析，我們不一定會回顧早期的表現並看到退出中立性的變化。所以我認為這一部分仍然存在。關於該規則何時生效。

We'll probably do that sometime, , either in the fourth quarter or January. If we have more information, when we have a better assumption with regard to when that rule does go in place, we are operating as a company and most certainly, the administration has taken the view that they want the APA rule in. And we're planning as if it's going to go in. It's just the point of entry of when it goes in.

我們可能會在第四季度或一月份的某個時候這樣做。如果我們有更多信息，當我們對該規則何時實施有更好的假設時，我們正在作為一家公司運營，最肯定的是，政府已經認為他們希望 APA 規則生效。我們正在計劃，就好像它要進去一樣。這只是它進入時的入口點。

So your question really around is there a claw back people use the term roll back. As a company, we haven't spent any real time thinking about that again. We view it's going to come into effect in some way and if it doesn't, then we have to have a high degree of certainty that it wouldn't go back into play. And then it's really a conversation for those that share the economic impact of this and then for our properties, we'd have to do that assessment. But again, we haven't spent a lot of time on this. We believe the rule will go into effect and we're planning as a company to execute that.

所以你真正的問題是，人們使用術語「回滾」來回滾。作為一家公司，我們沒有再花任何時間思考這個問題。我們認為它將以某種方式生效，如果沒有，那麼我們必須高度確定它不會重新發揮作用。對於那些分享這一點經濟影響的人來說，這實際上是一場對話，然後對於我們的財產，我們必須進行評估。但同樣，我們並沒有在這上面花很多時間。我們相信該規則將會生效，並且我們正計劃作為一家公司來執行該規則。

Brian, do you have any further comments you want?

布萊恩，您還有什麼想要的嗎？

Yeah. No, I think, look, we had to plan as if there was going to be an eight hour late fee because it takes time for these offsets to bleed in. We work with our partners on that. It's hard to speculate on whether $8 actually goes into effect. If they remove the safe harbor, there's a lot of different ways that this could play out, but we're prepared for all of those events.

是的。不，我認為，我們必須做好計劃，就好像要收取八小時的滯納金一樣，因為這些補償需要時間才能體現出來。我們與我們的合作夥伴就此合作。很難推測 8 美元是否真的生效。如果他們取消安全港，可能會出現許多不同的情況，但我們已經為所有這些事件做好了準備。

And in terms of rolling anything back, I think, like Brian said, that's a discussion that we have with our partners, just like when we rolled out the initial pricing actions. And we operate very transparently with them and we did when we rolled out the pricing changes and we'll do that depending on the eventual outcome of the late fee.

在回滾任何事情方面，我認為，就像布萊恩所說，這是我們與合作夥伴的討論，就像我們推出最初的定價行動時一樣。我們與他們的合作非常透明，我們在推出定價變更時就這樣做了，我們將根據滯納金的最終結果來做到這一點。

Again, our goal hasn't changed here. We're trying to protect our partners and continue to approve the same customers that we do today.

同樣，我們的目標在這裡沒有改變。我們正在努力保護我們的合作夥伴，並繼續像今天一樣獲得相同的客戶認可。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Great, Sanjay. Have a good day.

太棒了，桑傑。祝你有美好的一天。

Mihir Bhatia, Bank of America.

米希爾·巴蒂亞，美國銀行。

Hi. Thank you for taking my question. Maybe to start, I just wanted to turn to net interest margins for a little bit. How do you expect them to perform in a declining rate environment? Can I ask because your portfolio is a little different than some of your large peers with a little bit more fixed rate in it. So just maybe if you could walk through the moving pieces there and also any deposit data assumptions you'd be willing to share?

你好。謝謝你回答我的問題。也許首先，我只是想稍微談談淨利差。您預計他們在利率下降的環境中表現如何？我可以問一下嗎，因為您的投資組合與一些大型同行略有不同，其中的固定利率稍高。那麼，也許您可以詳細了解那裡的活動以及您願意分享的任何存款數據假設嗎？

Good morning. And thanks for your question. So I think when you think about a framework for a net interest margin, I'm going to put aside a little bit of the ALR mix and I'll come back to that at the end. I think when you first think about the interest in field interest in the component yield piece of this, you should be getting a little bit of a benefit as the impact of prime rate movements for that portion of the business -- for that portion of the business to flow through, right? Because prime lags the way in which we build it. So hopefully we get a benefit on the floating rate component of it.

早安.謝謝你的提問。因此，我認為，當您考慮淨利差框架時，我將暫時擱置一些 ALR 組合，最後我會再討論這一點。我認為，當您首先考慮對這部分收益率的現場興趣時，您應該會獲得一點好處，因為最優惠利率變動對這部分業務的影響 - 對於這部分業務業務要流經吧？因為 Prime 落後於我們建造它的方式。因此，希望我們能從其中的浮動利率部分中受益。

Most certainly as payment rate continues to come down, the revolve rate component should rise. So those two should create tailwinds inside the interest and fee side of the NIM component. I think when you think about the funding side of both the investment portfolio, as well as the interest expense, obviously, we're at the follow market and traditionally, we lagged the market a little bit from a digital banking perspective. I think what you've seen here in the third quarter is that digital banks have been a little bit more proactive lowering rates, earlier than normal, given there are probably funding needs. So we followed them down. So I think that creates an additional tailwind.

最肯定的是，隨著支付率持續下降，循環利率部分應該會上升。因此，這兩者應該會在淨利差組件的利息和費用方面產生順風。我認為，當你考慮投資組合的融資方面以及利息支出時，顯然，我們處於跟隨市場，傳統上，從數位銀行的角度來看，我們稍微落後於市場。我認為您在第三季度看到的是，考慮到可能存在資金需求，數位銀行比正常情況更早地更主動地降低了利率。於是我們就跟著他們往下走。所以我認為這會帶來額外的推動力。

When you think about that for a second, you have to break it out between the high yield savings component, which has a more immediate impact. But again, it's probably 40% of our retail deposits and then you have the 60% of CDS. A bulk of which will reprice in the first half, and most certainly, , more than I want to say, 75% price entirely during or during next year.

當你思考這個問題時，你必須將其分解為高收益儲蓄部分，這會產生更直接的影響。但同樣，這可能是我們零售存款的 40%，然後是 CDS 的 60%。其中大部分將在上半年重新定價，最肯定的是，比我想說的還要多，75%的價格將在明年或明年期間完全定價。

But the bulk of it really priced in the first half of the year, a lot of which is in the second quarter given the way in which we originated certificates this year. So again that, that lags a little bit on some of the earlier fed movements but should be able to capture that rate movement down as we move back in.

但其中大部分實際上是在今年上半年定價的，考慮到我們今年創建證書的方式，其中許多是在第二季度定價的。因此，這比之前的一些聯準會走勢稍有滯後，但當我們重新介入時，應該能夠捕捉到利率下降的趨勢。

And the last thing I bring in is a or is a little bit of a wild card when it comes to them. I look at it today if we're paying someone 4.3% on a high yield savings and 4.9% from the fed, it's a positive economic position for the company. So I'm not necessarily sure I want to take liquidity down. At that point because we're going to need it as we begin to exit and grow here from this period of time.

我最後引入的是一個 or ，當涉及到它們時，它有點像通配符。我今天看到，如果我們向某人支付 4.3% 的高收益儲蓄利率和 4.9% 的聯準會利率，這對公司來說是一個積極的經濟地位。所以我不一定確定我想減少流動性。那時，因為當我們從這段時間開始退出並在這裡成長時，我們將需要它。

So again, if that turns more negative or flat, then we'll rethink how much like we carry. So those are the moving pieces, I think here to kind of give you some sense on how you should think about them.

再說一遍，如果情況變得更加消極或平淡，那麼我們將重新考慮我們的承受力有多少。所以這些都是令人感動的部分，我想在這裡可以讓你了解它們應該如何思考。

No, that's very helpful. Thank you. And then maybe switching back to purchase volume and just following up, I think it is Moshe's questions. Just wanted to make sure I understand what gives you confidence that purchase volume declined, I guess for purchase are stabilized here at this down low single purchase level?

不，這非常有幫助。謝謝。然後也許會切換回購買量並跟進，我認為這是摩西的問題。只是想確保我明白是什麼讓您有信心購買量下降，我想購買量穩定在這個較低的單次購買水平？

And relatedly are there certain platforms which you look at which are leading indicators of where purchase volumes are going or consumer financial help? Thanks.

與此相關的是，您是否關注某些平台，這些平台是購買量去向或消費者財務幫助的領先指標？謝謝。

Yeah, obviously we look at the trend of daily and we watch daily sales and see where they flow and watch the what I would call a counter adjusted year-over-year view and in a kind of daily year-over-year view.

是的，顯然我們會關注每日趨勢，觀察每日銷售情況，了解它們流向何處，並觀察我所說的櫃檯調整同比視圖和每日同比視圖。

So I think we try to gain insights to see whether or not we see trends and I think we see stability where we are, Brian mentioned earlier. Again, we started to see a decline really in the second quarter and accelerated into the third quarter. But now it's somewhat stabilized. Again, holiday is always an interesting period of time how promotional it will be and which retailers were win or lose there.

因此，我認為我們試圖獲得洞察力，看看我們是否看到了趨勢，我認為我們看到了我們所處的穩定性，布萊恩之前提到過。同樣，我們在第二季度開始真正看到下降，並在第三季度加速下降。但現在已經有些穩定了。再說一次，假期總是一個有趣的時期，促銷力度如何以及哪些零售商在假期中獲勝或失敗。

So that's a little bit of a wild card. But I think generally speaking, when we look at the spending behavior patterns broadly speaking, in the aggregate, we don't see things that are continuing to slow. I think when we further break that down by what I would call the credit grade pieces of it's been fairly consistent where your higher credit rates continue to be higher than your lower credit grades with regard to what they're consuming.

所以這有點不確定。但我認為，一般來說，當我們從整體上看待支出行為模式時，我們並沒有看到任何事情繼續放緩。我認為，當我們進一步將其分解為我所說的信用等級部分時，它是相當一致的，就他們所消費的而言，較高的信用等級繼續高於較低的信用等級。

So I think we look at that and say, okay, there is some stability heading into the holiday season, I think to your point, is there a platform that leads to recline? I think you have to look at it and say is there platforms that are much more discretionary or there are ones that aren't right. So I think you're going to see the ones that have more discretionary spend maybe a little bit more down than others. I'll be still, you still see strength in certain parts of the portfolio inside of the platform. So for example, that's performing better than other pieces inside health and wellness that that should continue.

所以我認為我們會考慮這一點並說，好吧，進入假期季節會有一些穩定性，我認為就你的觀點而言，是否有一個平台可以導致傾斜？我認為你必須看看它並說是否有更自由裁量權的平台或有不正確的平台。所以我認為你會看到那些擁有更多可自由支配支出的人可能會比其他人減少一點。我會保持沉默，您仍然會看到平台內投資組合的某些部分的優勢。例如，它比健康和保健領域的其他產品表現更好，這種情況應該持續下去。

I think the other thing is if you just go back and think about the two years prior to this, we're coming off of record levels of consumer spend, not just in our business, but across the industry. And I think we all knew at some point inflation was going to catch up to the consumer, particularly at the lower income levels and we're starting to see that. So a slowdown is not necessarily a bad thing in this environment.

我認為另一件事是，如果你回想一下在此之前的兩年，我們的消費者支出水平正在擺脫創紀錄的水平，不僅在我們的業務中，而且在整個行業中。我認為我們都知道，在某個時候，通貨膨脹將會趕上消費者，特別是在較低收入水平，我們已經開始看到這一點。因此，在這種環境下，經濟放緩不一定是壞事。

Thank you for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

Thanks, Mihir. Have a good day.

謝謝，米希爾。祝你有美好的一天。

Mark DeVries, Deutsche Bank.

馬克‧德弗里斯，德意志銀行。

Yeah, thanks. You mentioned earlier that you started to see others implement changes. Just interesting your thoughts on kind of what you've learned from that, whether you've decided you need to recalibrate to remain competitive. It doesn't really sound like it just given the low attritions or alternatively, whether you kind of miss an opportunity to change terms with some borrowers, that you viewed as more marginal.

是的，謝謝。您之前提到您開始看到其他人實施變革。只是讓您對從中學到的東西感興趣，無論您是否決定需要重新調整以保持競爭力。這聽起來並不像是僅僅考慮到低流失率，或者您是否錯過了與某些借款人改變條款的機會，您認為這更邊緣。

Yes, thank you. Good morning. So again, we maintain a competitive screen of those people who are in the partnership based business. You don't necessarily look at broad-based general purpose cards who have a different competitive dynamic relative to their value propositions. But when we look at people who have implemented changes in the partnership side from a competitive standpoint, they generally have done similar types of things relative to APRs, some have done things with paper saver fee. So I think we look at that landscape and I think we feel comfortable with the actions that we've taken.

是的，謝謝。早安.因此，我們再次對那些從事合作夥伴業務的人員進行競爭性篩選。您不一定會關注基礎廣泛的通用卡，它們相對於其價值主張具有不同的競爭動力。但當我們從競爭的角度來看那些在合作夥伴方面實施變革的人時，他們通常做了與年利率類似的事情，有些人做了節省紙張費用的事情。所以我認為我們看到了這種情況，我認為我們對我們所採取的行動感到滿意。

And again, we, we look more so to how our portfolio performs, our relationships with our merchants and the value proposition we have with our customers. Clearly the pricing of a credit product has to resonate with the value proposition that they get. If those two are out of equilibrium, you're going to have a situation where the consumer is not going to want your product. So it's more we're focused on ourselves. I think when we look at the competitive screen. I think we think about it as being in line with and we're honestly an outlier relative to our peers.

再說一次，我們更關注我們的投資組合的表現、我們與商家的關係以及我們與客戶的價值主張。顯然，信用產品的定價必須與其所獲得的價值主張產生共鳴。如果這兩者不平衡，就會出現消費者不想要你的產品的情況。所以我們更關注自己。我認為當我們看競爭螢幕時。我認為我們認為這是一致的，而且相對於我們的同行來說，我們確實是一個異常值。

Okay, got it. Thanks. And then on the guidance for reserve coverage at the end of the year, it implies a bigger kind of step down seasonally than we saw in the last couple of years. Could you just talk about what's driving that?

好的，明白了。謝謝。然後，就年底準備金覆蓋率的指導而言，這意味著季節性下降幅度比我們過去幾年看到的更大。您能談談是什麼推動了這個趨勢嗎？

Most certainly, I think when you think about the reserve coverage rate, it's generally a forward-looking view on how you think losses will be over a reasonable period of time, number one. And two, are there other things that aren't in your quantitative model that you need to account for macroeconomic being one. I think as we think about the end of the year and think about the lost content through the delinquency we see today and how we feel about the macro. I think we feel comfortably generally going to be in line with what we had at the end of last year.

最肯定的是，我認為當你考慮準備金覆蓋率時，它通常是你認為在合理的一段時間內損失將如何的前瞻性觀點，第一。第二，是否有其他因素不在您的量化模型中，需要考慮宏觀經濟因素。我認為，當我們思考年底時，思考我們今天看到的拖欠行為所失去的內容以及我們對宏觀的感受。我認為我們總體上感覺與去年年底的情況一致。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Thank you. Have a good day.

謝謝。祝你有美好的一天。

John Hecht, Jefferies.

約翰‧赫克特，傑弗里斯。

Good morning guys. Thanks very much for taking my questions. Most have been asked and answered. I'm wondering, the health and wellness segments have always been a good contributor to growth and I'm just wondering, are you seeing similar kind of spend trends from a discretionary, non-discretionary perspective in that category and is there anything else to call out there that might be different from the kind of the rest of the portfolio?

早安，夥計們。非常感謝您回答我的問題。大多數已被詢問和回答。我想知道，健康和保健領域一直是成長的良好貢獻者，我只是想知道，您是否從該類別的可自由裁量、非可自由裁量的角度看到了類似的支出趨勢，還有其他什麼可以改變的嗎？

Yeah, John, let me start on this and then hand it to Brian, I think, look, the health and wellness segment has been a big area of focus for us over the last couple of years we think. We've got the right to win in that space. It's a huge market $400 billion, roughly.

是的，約翰，讓我從這個開始，然後將其交給布萊恩，我認為，看，健康和保健領域一直是我們在過去幾年中關注的一個重要領域。我們有權利在這個領域獲勝。這是一個大約 4000 億美元的巨大市場。

We've seen a little bit of a pullback recently. But if you look over a little bit longer period of time, we've definitely been able to accelerate the growth there. We think we've got a great value proposition. We've got a well-recognized brand, actually, we get the best customer NPS and customer satisfaction scores with those products. So we feel great about how we're positioned in health and wellness.

最近我們看到了一些回調。但如果你看更長的一段時間，我們肯定能夠加速那裡的成長。我們認為我們有一個很好的價值主張。我們擁有一個廣受認可的品牌，實際上，我們透過這些產品獲得了最好的客戶 NPS 和客戶滿意度分數。因此，我們對自己在健康和保健方面的定位感到非常滿意。

Not surprisingly where you've seen some pullback more broadly across the business has been in bigger ticket discretionary purchases and you're seeing some of that in the care credit space. Again, nothing concerning from our perspective, you're still seeing, , largely better growth there than you are and the rest of the business is based on the investments that we've made to date.

毫不奇怪，您在整個業務中看到了更廣泛的一些回調，即更大的可自由支配的門票購買，並且您在護理信貸領域也看到了其中的一些回調。再說一次，從我們的角度來看，沒有什麼值得擔心的，你仍然看到，那裡的成長很大程度上比你更好，而其餘業務是基於我們迄今為止所做的投資。

Yeah, just maybe to add a little bit more color. I think when you look inside the health and wellness sales platform and think about the diversity. Again, I highlighted pet up 4% year-over-year. So there are pieces of that portfolio that are, that are doing well. Cosmetics down six et cetera. , you see some things in and we talk about the consumer being discretionary, some of your high ticket dental, which is more of a deferrable expense for some that's down.

是的，也許只是添加一點顏色。我認為當你深入了解健康和保健銷售平台並考慮多樣性時。我再次強調寵物年增 4%。因此，該投資組合中的某些部分錶現良好。化妝品降六等。 ，你會看到一些事情，我們談論消費者的自由裁量權，一些高價牙科費用，對於一些下降的人來說更多的是可延期的費用。

So I think you look at that the positive news we take out of that, that platform. Again, the reuse of the cards up to 65% which is up 500 basis points from the last year. So again, Brian highlights that the net the net promotor score and the liability of this product. The value proposition and the brand of this product resonates with those consumers.

因此，我認為您會看到我們從該平台中獲得的積極消息。同樣，卡片的重複使用率高達 65%，比去年提高了 500 個基點。布賴恩再次強調了網路的淨推廣分數和該產品的責任。該產品的價值主張和品牌引起了這些消費者的共鳴。

So again, we continue to see the use and most certainly, it's an area where I think when people start to lean back into some of the more discretionary type procedures, that they are non-medical that, that we will begin to see that lift and again, having 10% lung growth year-over-year is still a very strong part of the portfolio and part of our company strategy.

所以，我們會繼續看到它的用途，最肯定的是，我認為，當人們開始傾向於一些更自由裁量的類型程序時，它們是非醫療性的，我們將開始看到這種提升再說一次，肺部年增10% 仍然是我們產品組合和公司策略的重要組成部分。

Okay, great, thanks. And then I know you guys are preparing for a variety of outcomes with the late fee backdrop, I'm wondering -- but can you give us a sort of an update on where it stands on litigation? Is there anything on the docket or on the calendar that we should be looking to that might represent, an event that could give us a little bit more color about what's going to happen there?

好的，太好了，謝謝。然後我知道你們正在為滯納金背景下的各種結果做準備，我想知道 - 但你能給我們介紹一下訴訟方面的最新情況嗎？日程表或日曆上是否有任何我們應該關注的可能代表的事件，可以讓我們對那裡將要發生的事情有更多的了解？

Yeah, John, what I'd say is there was a hearing that was held at the end of August. You most certainly. Right now we're waiting for the and the plant are waiting for the decision with regard to the motion that's in front of the court, which is both about venue and the standing of one of the plaintiffs in the case. There's not a timetable for that district court to respond to that motion. So we're waiting for that.

是的，約翰，我想說的是八月底舉行了一次聽證會。你當然。現在我們正在等待，工廠正在等待法庭上動議的裁決，該動議既涉及審判地點，也涉及本案原告之一的地位。該地區法院沒有回應該動議的時間表。所以我們正在等待。

You then go into whether or not one of the parties, whoever is on the other side of that, whether or not they would take action with the fifth circuit to appeal it or whether or not the next motion would be around the injunction itself and whether or not the injunction itself should be lifted from there.

然後，您可以討論當事方之一，無論誰是另一方，他們是否會向第五巡迴法院採取行動提出上訴，或者下一個動議是否會圍繞禁令本身，以及是否或不應該從那裡取消禁令本身。

So again, I think we're in a waiting game. It's I think it's fair to say that anyone who's trying to predict this has been wrong. So we're not in the prediction business today. So we continue to operate the business as if the AP rule will go in and we'll obviously wait what the court the court says about the litigation. But obviously, , we feel good that, that the merits of litigation there. But, but really, it's inherently uncertain.

再說一遍，我認為我們正處於一場等待的遊戲中。我認為可以公平地說，任何試圖預測這一點的人都錯了。所以我們今天不從事預測業務。因此，我們將繼續經營業務，就好像美聯社規則將生效一樣，我們顯然會等待法庭對訴訟的裁決。但顯然，我們感覺很好，訴訟的優點就在那裡。但是，但實際上，它本質上是不確定的。

I mean, John, if you think about it, we're prepared and our entire plan was enacted to offset what is a worst case, which was $8 by October 1. Obviously, that has come and gone. It is difficult to speculate on when this is actually going to become effective. But if you think about it as, all the pricing actions that we rolled out policy changes, et cetera were done assuming in October 1 implementation date and $8.

我的意思是，約翰，如果你想一想，我們已經做好了準備，我們制定的整個計劃都是為了抵消最壞的情況，即 10 月 1 日之前的損失為 8 美元。顯然，那已經來了又走了。很難推測這何時會真正生效。但如果你考慮一下，我們推出的所有定價行動，政策變化等都是假設 10 月 1 日實施日期和 8 美元完成的。

And so as we kind of buy time, that's helpful from that perspective. But again, we weren't, we didn't have the luxury of waiting. We acted very quickly here and rolled out the pricing changes and , they're performing as expected.

因此，當我們爭取時間時，從這個角度來看這是有幫助的。但我們又沒有，我們沒有機會等待。我們很快就採取了行動，推出了價格調整，而且它們的表現符合預期。

Great. I appreciate that guys. Thanks very much.

偉大的。我很欣賞這些人。非常感謝。

Great, John. Have a good day.

太棒了，約翰。祝你有美好的一天。

Jeff Adelson, Morgan Stanley.

傑夫阿德爾森，摩根士丹利。

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I just wanted to circle back on the loan growth outlook and some of the credit actions you've taken. It sounds like if I'm hearing it right, you maybe have slowed the intensity of these credit actions you took earlier in the year.

嘿，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。我只是想回顧一下貸款成長前景以及你們所採取的一些信貸行動。聽起來，如果我沒聽錯的話，您可能已經放慢了今年早些時候採取的這些信貸行動的力度。

So just assume you keep that stance in place today, does that mean the slowing trend you're looking for exiting the year kind of at a low single digit growth rate, maybe can reverse itself in the next year or what would it take for that to re accelerate? And how should we think eventually about the timeline to getting back to that high single digit kind of long term growth rate you look for?

因此，假設您今天保持這一立場，這是否意味著您希望以較低的個位數成長率退出今年的放緩趨勢，也許可以在明年逆轉，或者需要什麼才能實現這一點重新加速？我們最終應該如何考慮恢復到您所尋求的高個位數長期成長率的時間表？

Yeah, thanks Jeff for the question, and good morning, The first thing, I just want to clarify when we take action a lot of its strategy actions that aren't necessarily a single point in time. So for instance some of the action that we took around debt consolidation loans or student loans to some degree, if that strategy trips today actually happen.

是的，謝謝傑夫提出的問題，早安，第一件事，我只想澄清一下，當我們採取行動時，很多戰略行動不一定是單一時間點。例如，我們在某種程度上圍繞著債務合併貸款或學生貸款採取的一些行動，如果該策略今天確實發生的話。

So they're ongoing, they're not new actions that are the same actions just whether it account as applicable to that action. So again, the actions that we are taking today are more idiosyncratic based upon our partner channel or product performance relative to the risk adjusted return.

所以它們是持續進行的，它們不是新的操作，只是相同的操作是否適用於此操作。再說一次，我們今天採取的行動根據我們的合作夥伴通路或產品性能相對於風險調整回報而言更加特殊。

I think when you think about how credit actions play out and how the consumer plays out, Brian highlighted earlier, most certainly we're in a period of time. That's a little bit more transitory, right? So you have affordability issues for some of the lower end, lower income consumers. Hopefully with interest rates coming down and inflation coming down, that abates a bit and take some of that pressure off.

布萊恩早些時候強調，我認為，當你考慮到信貸行為如何發揮作用以及消費者如何發揮作用時，我們肯定正處於一個時期。這有點短暫，對吧？因此，一些低端、低收入消費者面臨負擔能力問題。希望隨著利率下降和通貨膨脹下降，這種情況會減輕並減輕一些壓力。

Remember a lot of the pressure on credit today stems not necessarily from economics of the consumer, but more that the fact that too much credit has been put in the system in the '21 to early '23 years, it has to work its way through the system.

請記住，當今信貸面臨的許多壓力不一定來自消費者的經濟，更重要的是，在 21 世紀到 23 年初，系統中投入了太多信貸，它必須解決這個問題系統。

I think is that begins to recede, which I think you're seeing in certain issues across the industry that gives us a little bit of a tailwind, which says that we can begin to unwind some of the restrictive credit actions that we took over the past two years. Potentially in the latter part of '25. But again, that's going to be based upon performance.

我認為這種情況開始消退，我認為你在整個行業的某些問題中看到了這一點，這給我們帶來了一點順風，這表明我們可以開始放鬆我們接管的一些限制性信貸行動。年。可能在 25 年下半年。但同樣，這將基於性能。

So I don't think this is a long term trend on growth. It's probably a good thing in this period where the credit is a little bit more uncertain, but obviously our long term framework and our models are built to, to deliver 7% to 10% loan receivable growth.

所以我認為這不是一個長期的成長趨勢。在信貸更加不確定的時期，這可能是一件好事，但顯然我們的長期框架和模型旨在實現 7% 至 10% 的應收貸款成長。

And as my follow up, I know you're not buying the PCC drivers in the lines. But could you maybe talk about how you feel you're tracking versus that initial $650 million to $700 million you were talking about earlier in the year. And just maybe remind us of any of the PPC changes you're holding off on at this point until the late two rule comes through or if it comes through rather.

作為我的後續行動，我知道您不會購買 PCC 驅動程式。但您能否談談與今年稍早談到的最初 6.5 億至 7 億美元相比，您對目前的追蹤情況有何感受？也許只是提醒我們您目前正在推遲的任何 PPC 更改，直到最後兩條規則通過，或者如果它通過的話。

Yeah. The way I think about It, Jeff, it's generally in line with as I talk about, customer attrition being lower, that's, that's a swing between bucket and this bucket. So again, I'd sit back and say, if you were to take a step back and go to 10,000 ft, I think you'd say the PPC actions -- PPPC actions, generally are in line with and course five performing a little bit better. But again, the point I brought up earlier, the point of neutrality is we look at the analysis hasn't changed for us. It's really just the trough.

是的。傑夫，我的想法通常與我所說的一致，客戶流失率較低，也就是說，這是一個桶子和這個桶子之間的搖擺。所以，我再說一遍，如果你退後一步，到達 10,000 英尺，我想你會說 PPC 動作——PPPC 動作，通常與第五場表現一致好一點了。但同樣，我之前提出的觀點，中立的觀點是我們認為分析對我們來說沒有改變。確實只是低谷而已。

So when does the rule come effective in our trajectory too there. But the point hasn't pushed out. I know we haven't really talked about that because we want to be able to understand when that rule goes in place. And as soon as it does, we will certainly provide that neutrality point. But again, things are performing generally in line and the core performed a little bit better than our expectations which I think is reflected in the outlook on page 12.

那麼該規則什麼時候在我們的軌跡中也生效呢？但重點還沒推出。我知道我們還沒有真正討論過這個問題，因為我們希望能夠理解該規則何時實施。一旦發生，我們肯定會提供中立點。但同樣，事情的表現總體上是一致的，核心的表現比我們的預期要好一些，我認為這反映在第 12 頁的展望中。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Rick Shane, JP Morgan.

里克·謝恩，摩根大通。

Hey, guys, thanks for taking my question. I was afraid Jeff is going to run out the clock on me. Look, I realized that Cecil reserve is a thought exercise and I realized that guidance on your reserve rate is a thought exercise on the thought exercise.

嘿，夥計們，謝謝你提出我的問題。我擔心傑夫會耗盡我的時間。看，我意識到塞西爾準備金是一項思想練習，我意識到對準備金率的指導是對思想練習的思想練習。

I'm curious though, if we look at the third quarter reserve rate, it's basically at a cyclical high and you're guiding for the fourth quarter back to '23 levels, you basically have 16 days of incremental information and it feels like you've gone from a very cautious outlook to a more or less cautious outlook what's changed or what mechanically is driving the sort of decline that Mark Devries had pointed out as well?

不過我很好奇，如果我們看一下第三季的準備金率，它基本上處於週期性高位，並且您將第四季度的準備金率引導回「23」水平，您基本上有16 天的增量信息，感覺就像您已經從非常謹慎的前景轉變為或多或少謹慎的前景，發生了什麼變化，或者是什麼機械地推動了馬克·德弗里斯也指出的那種下降？

Yeah, good morning Rick. And I'm glad that we run the clock out and you got to answer -- ask your question. It simply put; it really goes back to the denominator. Your lost content right now is baked, right? I mean, you can most certainly in your model roll, what the fourth quarter loss number should look like and what the first quarter dollar loss should look like it really just becomes the denomme.

是的，早上好，瑞克。我很高興我們已經超時了，你必須回答——提出你的問題。簡而言之；它實際上回到了分母。你現在遺失的內容已經被烘焙了，對吧？我的意思是，你可以肯定地在你的模型捲中，第四季度的損失數字應該是什麼樣子，第一季的美元損失應該是什麼樣子，這確實成為了問題。

So I don't view it as saying that we're trying to be any more cautious or guide to something that says we fundamentally see a different credit trajectory more. So it's just more the mechanics of the calculation of taking your reserve over an end of period loan number.

因此，我並不認為這意味著我們試圖更加謹慎或引導我們從根本上看到更多不同的信貸軌跡。因此，這更多的是計算你的準備金超過期末貸款數量的計算機制。

Got it. Okay. Thank you very much guys.

知道了。好的。非常感謝你們。

Thanks, Rick. Have a good day.

謝謝，瑞克。祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you. And this does conclude Synchrony's earnings conference call. You may disconnect your line at this time and have a wonderful day.

謝謝。Synchrony 的收益電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路並度過美好的一天。