史丹利百得 (SWK) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Stanley Black & Decker Earnings Conference Call. My name is Shannon, and I will be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions) Later, we will move on to question-and-answer session. Please note that this conference is being recorded.

歡迎參加 Stanley Black & Decker 2022 年第四季度和全年收益電話會議。我叫 Shannon，我將擔任今天電話的接線員。 （操作員說明）稍後，我們將進入問答環節。請注意，此會議正在錄製中。

I will now turn the call over to the Vice President of Investor Relations, Dennis Lange. Mr. Lange, you may begin.

我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁丹尼斯蘭格。 Lange 先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Shannon. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us for Stanley Black & Decker's 2022 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Webcast. On the webcast in addition to myself, Don Allan, President and CEO; and Corbin Walburger, Vice President and Interim CFO. Our earnings release, which was issued earlier this morning and the supplemental presentation, which we will refer to, are available on the IR section of our website. A replay of this morning's webcast will also be available beginning at 11 a.m. today.

謝謝你，香農。大家早上好，感謝您加入我們的 Stanley Black & Decker 2022 年第四季度和全年網絡廣播。在網絡直播中，除了我本人，還有總裁兼首席執行官 Don Allan；副總裁兼臨時首席財務官 Corbin Walburger。我們今天上午早些時候發布的收益報告和我們將參考的補充演示文稿可在我們網站的 IR 部分獲取。從今天上午 11 點開始，還可以重播今天上午的網絡廣播。

This morning, Don and Corbin will review our 2022 fourth quarter and full year results and various other matters followed by a Q&A session. Consistent with prior webcast, we are going to be sticking with just one question per caller. And as we normally do, we will be making some forward-looking statements during the call based on our current views.

今天上午，Don 和 Corbin 將回顧我們 2022 年第四季度和全年的業績以及其他各種事項，然後是問答環節。與之前的網絡廣播一致，我們將堅持每個來電者只回答一個問題。和往常一樣，我們將在電話會議期間根據我們目前的觀點做出一些前瞻性陳述。

Such statements are based on assumptions of future events that may not prove to be accurate and, as such, involve risk and uncertainty. It's therefore possible that the actual results may materially differ from any forward-looking statements that we may make today. We direct you to the cautionary statements in the 8-K that we filed with our press release and in our most recent 34-F Act Filing.

此類陳述基於對未來事件的假設，這些假設可能不准確，因此涉及風險和不確定性。因此，實際結果可能與我們今天可能做出的任何前瞻性陳述存在重大差異。我們會引導您查看我們隨新聞稿提交的 8-K 和我們最近的 34-F 法案備案中的警示性聲明。

I'll now turn the call over to our President and CEO, Don Allan.

我現在將電話轉給我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Don Allan。

Thank you, Dennis, and good morning, everyone. Our fourth quarter performance marked another meaningful step forward on our journey to streamline and optimize Stanley Black & Decker. Building on our #1 worldwide market position in Tools & Outdoor as well as our leading Industrial business, we continue to focus on advancing our simplification and transformation strategy.

謝謝丹尼斯，大家早上好。我們第四季度的業績標誌著我們在簡化和優化 Stanley Black & Decker 的旅程中又向前邁出了有意義的一步。基於我們在工具和戶外領域排名第一的全球市場地位以及我們領先的工業業務，我們繼續專注於推進我們的簡化和轉型戰略。

Across the second half of 2022, we improved customer fill rates significantly, reduced inventories by $800 million and realized $200 million in efficiency benefits from our leaner organizational structure as well as enhanced cost control in the back office and the supply chain. These actions generated more than $500 million of free cash flow in the fourth quarter, which supported a corresponding similar amount of reduction in our debt, a key objective of our capital allocation plan in the second half of 2022.

在 2022 年下半年，我們顯著提高了客戶滿足率，減少了 8 億美元的庫存，並通過更精簡的組織結構以及加強後台和供應鏈的成本控制實現了 2 億美元的效率收益。這些行動在第四季度產生了超過 5 億美元的自由現金流，支持我們相應減少類似數量的債務，這是我們 2022 年下半年資本配置計劃的一個關鍵目標。

Overall, we are making progress, and I am confident that our strategy and priorities are positioning the company for a strong, sustainable, long-term growth, cash flow generation, profitability enhancement and shareholder return. This transformation journey has just started, and significant efforts are still ahead of us. Our success will be dependent on staying agile while maintaining a disciplined approach, which ensures we stay focused on our key set of priorities.

總體而言，我們正在取得進展，我相信我們的戰略和優先事項正在使公司實現強勁、可持續的長期增長、現金流產生、盈利能力增強和股東回報。轉型之旅才剛剛開始，我們還需要付出很多努力。我們的成功將取決於保持敏捷，同時保持紀律嚴明的方法，這可確保我們始終專注於我們的關鍵優先事項。

Our team has seen significant changes over the second half of 2022, and they will lead us through the next phase of the transformation in 2023. I would like to take a moment to thank all of our leaders and employees across the globe and recognize them for their focus, commitment and hard work, especially over the last 7 to 8 months.

我們的團隊在 2022 年下半年發生了重大變化，他們將帶領我們在 2023 年完成轉型的下一階段。我想花點時間感謝我們在全球的所有領導和員工，並認可他們為他們的專注、承諾和辛勤工作，尤其是在過去的 7 到 8 個月裡。

Our 2022 full year revenue reached $16.9 billion, up 11% versus a record of 2021, led by the outdoor power equipment acquisitions as well as 9% organic growth in the Industrial segment and a 7% improvement in price realization. However, these top line growth drivers were partially muted by significant retractions in consumer and DIY demand as well as certain supply chain constraints we experienced in early 2022.

我們的 2022 年全年收入達到 169 億美元，比 2021 年的創紀錄水平增長 11%，這主要得益於戶外動力設備收購以及工業部門 9% 的有機增長和 7% 的價格實現提高。然而，由於消費者和 DIY 需求的大幅回落以及我們在 2022 年初遇到的某些供應鏈限制，這些收入增長動力部分減弱。

Our margins were significantly impacted by inflation, and when we chose to prioritize inventory reductions by lowering manufacturing production levels in this last 4 to 5 months of 2022, this was to allow us to generate solid free cash flow as we experienced in the fourth quarter. These negative profitability impacts resulted in a full year adjusted diluted earnings per share being down year-over-year to $4.62.

我們的利潤率受到通貨膨脹的顯著影響，當我們選擇通過在 2022 年的最後 4 到 5 個月降低製造業生產水平來優先減少庫存時，這是為了讓我們能夠產生穩健的自由現金流，就像我們在第四季度所經歷的那樣。這些負面的盈利影響導致全年調整後的攤薄每股收益同比下降至 4.62 美元。

For the fourth quarter, revenues were in line with the prior year at $4 billion. Demand from our professional end markets remained healthy. With our differentiated offerings and improved product availability, we successfully executed our promotional plans in support of the holiday season for our retail partners. Adjusted EPS for the period was a loss of $0.10, a result of our planned prioritization efforts around inventory reduction and cash generation. Notably, we lowered inventory by $500 million as compared to the end of the third quarter.

第四季度的收入與上年持平，為 40 億美元。我們專業終端市場的需求保持健康。憑藉我們差異化的產品和改進的產品可用性，我們成功地執行了促銷計劃，以支持我們的零售合作夥伴的假期。該期間調整後的每股收益虧損 0.10 美元，這是我們計劃圍繞減少庫存和產生現金進行優先排序的結果。值得注意的是，與第三季度末相比，我們將庫存減少了 5 億美元。

We entered 2023 prepared to navigate a challenging macroeconomic backdrop as interest rate hikes begin to yield their intended effects. That said, we are committed to advancing our transformation. While there is more work to be done, we have a clear road map forward. We are watching the demand environment and global economic dynamics very closely. Although current demand remains consistent with levels experienced in the back half of last year, we are planning for all scenarios, which balance the potential continuation of the current trends with the prospect of a further demand slowdown due to intensifying macro pressures.

隨著加息開始產生預期效果，我們進入了 2023 年，準備應對充滿挑戰的宏觀經濟背景。也就是說，我們致力於推進轉型。雖然還有更多工作要做，但我們有明確的前進路線圖。我們正在密切關注需求環境和全球經濟動態。儘管目前的需求與去年下半年的水平保持一致，但我們正在為所有情景進行規劃，以平衡當前趨勢的潛在延續與宏觀壓力加劇導致需求進一步放緩的前景。

While changes in demand are difficult to predict, our base case or midpoint of guidance assumes a decline in volume versus 2022 as we believe markets will continue to be challenged during 2023 as new housing starts are projected to decline 15% to 25% and repair and remodel activity will decline modestly year-over-year. We are also prepared to respond if revenue impacts are worse or better than our base case to ensure we appropriately manage the risks and opportunities that could arise.

雖然需求的變化難以預測，但我們的基本情況或指導中點假設與 2022 年相比數量下降，因為我們認為市場將在 2023 年繼續受到挑戰，因為新房屋開工率預計將下降 15% 至 25% 並且維修和改造活動將同比溫和下降。如果收入影響比我們的基本情況更糟或更好，我們也準備好做出回應，以確保我們適當地管理可能出現的風險和機會。

This guidance will have a P&L loss in the front half, which is impacted by our strategic choice to continue to reduce our inventory levels. For the full year, we are guiding an adjusted EPS range of $0 up to $2. Our free cash flow guidance is much stronger at $500 million up to $1 billion in 2023, well ahead of net income as we drive another $750 million up to $1 billion of inventory reduction during the year.

該指引將在前半部分出現損益，這受到我們繼續降低庫存水平的戰略選擇的影響。對於全年，我們指導調整後的每股收益範圍為 0 美元至 2 美元。我們的自由現金流指導要強得多，到 2023 年將達到 5 億美元至 10 億美元，遠遠超過淨收入，因為我們在這一年中又推動了 7.5 億美元至 10 億美元的庫存減少。

As you have heard me say many times over the past year, we believe the long-term view for the industries which our products serve is very positive with powerful generational shifts in the housing, more time at home due to hybrid work, an aging housing stock that needs repair and remodel, the continued improvement in aerospace demand and the acceleration of electrification within the automotive markets. We also have powerful secular drivers in Tools & Outdoor from the shift to cordless power tools and electric-powered outdoor equipment as we leverage our brands and innovation to gain market share.

正如你在過去一年中多次聽到我所說的那樣，我們相信我們的產品所服務的行業的長期前景是非常積極的，因為住房發生了強大的代際變化，混合工作導致更多時間在家，住房老化需要維修和改造的庫存、航空航天需求的持續增長以及汽車市場電氣化的加速。隨著我們利用我們的品牌和創新來獲得市場份額，從轉向無繩電動工具和電動戶外設備，我們在工具和戶外領域也擁有強大的長期驅動力。

Our priorities in 2023 will continue to be aligned with our messaging over the last 6 months: one, strong focus on cash flow through inventory reduction to assist with ongoing debt deleveraging; two, sequential improvement in our gross margins as we drive further supply chain transformation initiatives; and three, get back to gaining market share in all major categories of our Tools & Outdoor business.

我們在 2023 年的優先事項將繼續與過去 6 個月的信息保持一致：第一，通過減少庫存大力關注現金流，以協助持續的債務去槓桿化；第二，隨著我們推動進一步的供應鏈轉型計劃，我們的毛利率連續改善；第三，在我們的工具和戶外業務的所有主要類別中重新獲得市場份額。

Our 2023 guidance base case is planning for an improved profitability performance in the back half of the year as we see more benefits from the transformation program. We believe our annualized EBITDA will achieve a run rate of close to $1.5 billion in the back half. That will be a major step forward in returning our company back to 2019 EBITDA levels, which were just above $2 billion. Given the significant benefits expected to be realized beyond 2023 from our supply chain transformation program, there appears to be a very reasonable glide path to exceed 2019 levels for EBITDA.

我們的 2023 年指導基準案例計劃在今年下半年提高盈利能力，因為我們看到轉型計劃帶來更多好處。我們相信我們的年化 EBITDA 將在下半年實現接近 15 億美元的運行率。這將是使我們公司恢復到 2019 年略高於 20 億美元的 EBITDA 水平的重要一步。鑑於我們的供應鏈轉型計劃預計將在 2023 年以後實現顯著效益，EBITDA 似乎有超過 2019 年水平的非常合理的下滑路徑。

Our teams around the world remain focused on executing our primary areas of long-term strategic focus, continuing to advance innovation, electrification and global market penetration to achieve organic growth of 2x to 3x the market growth, streamlining and simplifying the organization as well as shifting resources to prioritize investments that we believe have a positive and more direct impact for our customers and end users, accelerating the operations and supply chain transformation to return gross margins to historical 35% plus levels, while improving fill rates to better match inventory with customer demand; and then prioritizing cash flow generation and inventory optimization. We are making deliberate strategic investments in our businesses to position the company to fully capitalize on these long-term opportunities to gain share within the industries that we serve and to accelerate our organic growth.

我們在世界各地的團隊仍然專注於執行我們長期戰略重點的主要領域，繼續推進創新、電氣化和全球市場滲透，以實現市場增長 2 至 3 倍的有機增長，精簡和簡化組織以及轉移資源優先考慮對我們的客戶和最終用戶有積極和更直接影響的投資，加速運營和供應鏈轉型，使毛利率恢復到 35% 以上的歷史水平，同時提高填充率以更好地匹配庫存與客戶需求;然後優先考慮現金流生成和庫存優化。我們正在對我們的業務進行審慎的戰略投資，以使公司能夠充分利用這些長期機會，在我們所服務的行業中獲得份額，並加速我們的有機增長。

With that in mind, last year, we invested approximately $350 million in research and development, up over 25% versus 2021 and well ahead of our total sales growth. This increase in R&D will ensure we continue to fund incremental investments beyond our core and breakthrough innovation, electrification across the portfolio and market leadership, including digital and end user activation. This is an area where we have a long legacy of key investments to maintain our market-leading innovation ecosystem. We clearly took another step forward in 2022, and we will again in 2023.

考慮到這一點，去年我們在研發上投資了約 3.5 億美元，比 2021 年增長了 25% 以上，遠遠超過了我們的總銷售額增長。研發的增加將確保我們繼續為我們的核心和突破性創新、整個產品組合的電氣化和市場領導地位（包括數字和最終用戶激活）之外的增量投資提供資金。這是我們長期進行關鍵投資以維持我們市場領先的創新生態系統的領域。我們顯然在 2022 年又向前邁進了一步，我們將在 2023 年再次向前邁進。

Our business transformation remains on track, and we are building momentum towards delivering approximately $1 billion in annualized savings by the end of 2023. That will support both gross and operating margin expansion once our inventory destock is complete.

我們的業務轉型仍在進行中，我們正在蓄勢待發，力爭到 2023 年底實現約 10 億美元的年化節省。一旦我們的庫存去庫存完成，這將支持毛利率和營業利潤率的增長。

Let's spend some time on the topic of innovation. We are continuing to release new products and bring advancements and innovation to our industries. Today, I will highlight a few exciting launches. As it relates to outdoor electrification, we are introducing new CRAFTSMAN and DEWALT outdoor offerings.

讓我們花點時間談談創新這個話題。我們將繼續發布新產品，為我們的行業帶來進步和創新。今天，我將重點介紹一些激動人心的發布。由於涉及戶外電氣化，我們正在推出新的 CRAFTSMAN 和 DEWALT 戶外產品。

For the 2023 season, CRAFTSMAN will carry a new range of lithium-ion electric ride-on mowers and an expansion of our 20-volt CRAFTSMAN Outdoor Essentials. Notably new brushless string trimmers and blowers as well as a new cordless pressure washer. For the PRO, we are continuing to expand the DEWALT FLEXVOLT 20-volt MAX system, including the addition of a new pruning chainsaw that is lightweight and compact with an 8-inch bar and a high-efficiency brushless motor.

在 2023 賽季，CRAFTSMAN 將推出一系列新的鋰離子電動騎乘式割草機，並擴展我們的 20 伏 CRAFTSMAN Outdoor Essentials。值得注意的是新的無刷繩式修剪器和鼓風機以及新的無繩高壓清洗機。對於 PRO，我們將繼續擴展 DEWALT FLEXVOLT 20 伏 MAX 系統，包括增加一個新的修剪鏈鋸，它輕巧緊湊，帶有 8 英寸的桿和高效無刷電機。

Shifting to professional job site products and solutions, this is another key area for long-term growth. We recently debuted a range of revolutionary tools, accessories and storage solutions for Pros in the commercial concrete and construction industries as we continue to electrify the job site. We are expanding the FLEXVOLT product family with the launch of the world's first cordless in-line SDS MAX Chipping Hammer and Cordless Hex Breaker Hammer.

轉向專業的工作現場產品和解決方案，這是長期增長的另一個關鍵領域。隨著我們繼續使工作現場電氣化，我們最近為商業混凝土和建築行業的專業人士推出了一系列革命性的工具、配件和存儲解決方案。我們正在擴展 FLEXVOLT 產品系列，推出世界上第一款無線串聯 SDS MAX Chipping Hammer 和 Cordless Hex Breaker Hammer。

We are also introducing the most powerful cordless DEWALT Large Angle Grinder. All three of these new cordless tools include Perform and Protect safety features as well. Additionally, we have a new DEWALT Tough System Solution for storing, charging and transporting DEWALT 20-volt and FLEXVOLT batteries.

我們還推出了功能最強大的充電式 DEWALT 大型角磨機。所有這三款新型無繩工具還包括執行和保護安全功能。此外，我們還有一個新的 DEWALT Tough 系統解決方案，用於存儲、充電和運輸 DEWALT 20 伏和 FLEXVOLT 電池。

And lastly, our DEWALT product team partnered with CONVERGE, a leading concrete material and operations optimization company, to develop and unveil new concrete DNA compatible sensors. This new product allows DEWALT pros to begin work sooner as users can directly measure concrete hardening using advanced artificial intelligence rather than relying on estimations. In addition, this product helps reduce cement consumption by tailoring the exact amount needed. Together with CONVERGE, we are helping to tackle the challenge of reducing carbon emissions through our product innovation.

最後，我們的 DEWALT 產品團隊與領先的混凝土材料和運營優化公司 CONVERGE 合作，開發並推出新的混凝土 DNA 兼容傳感器。這種新產品使得偉專業人士能夠更快地開始工作，因為用戶可以使用先進的人工智能直接測量混凝土硬化，而不是依賴估計。此外，該產品通過定制所需的確切數量來幫助減少水泥消耗。我們與 CONVERGE 一起，通過我們的產品創新幫助應對減少碳排放的挑戰。

As the worldwide leader in tools and outdoor, these are prime examples of the types of core and breakthrough innovations that we expect to continue to introduce to our customers and deliver for our end users.

作為工具和戶外領域的全球領導者，這些是我們期望繼續向客戶介紹並為最終用戶提供的核心和突破性創新類型的主要示例。

Now diving a bit deeper into our business transformation. The team has made great progress. We realized $200 million of savings in the second half of 2022 from efficiency benefits, including our organizational changes as well as indirect cost savings. We expect to deliver a cumulative SG&A savings of $500 million by the end of 2023, covering simplification of the corporate structure, streamlined leadership spans of controls and organizational layers and the reduction of indirect spend. Our new organizational structure is now in place, and the teams are activating our priorities.

現在深入探討我們的業務轉型。團隊取得了很大進步。我們在 2022 年下半年實現了 2 億美元的效率收益節省，包括我們的組織變革和間接成本節約。我們預計到 2023 年底將累計節省 5 億美元的 SG&A，包括簡化公司結構、簡化控制和組織層級的領導跨度以及減少間接支出。我們的新組織結構現已到位，團隊正在激活我們的優先事項。

As you saw in our recent announcements, we have brought on two new business leaders who are critical for our transformation. Patrick Hallinan was named our incoming Chief Financial Officer. Patrick is a seasoned executive who has led global high-performing finance functions across top consumer brands. Patrick joins us in April from Fortune Brands Innovations, where he currently serves as their CFO, and is the ideal candidate for the next leader of our finance function.

正如您在我們最近的公告中看到的那樣，我們聘請了兩位對我們的轉型至關重要的新業務領導。 Patrick Hallinan 被任命為我們即將上任的首席財務官。 Patrick 是一位經驗豐富的高管，曾領導過頂級消費品牌的全球高績效財務職能。 Patrick 於 4 月從 Fortune Brands Innovations 加入我們，他目前擔任該公司的首席財務官，是我們下一任財務職能領導者的理想人選。

John Lucas joins us as our new CHRO and brings a highly distinguished track record with world-class experience in organizational and human capital management. John will be instrumental to enabling our culture and values and to the long-term success of our business. I want to thank Corbin Walburger and Deborah Wintner for their leadership and significant contributions during this critical transformation period for the company. I look forward to continuing to work with them as key Stanley Black & Decker leaders.

約翰·盧卡斯 (John Lucas) 加入我們，成為我們的新首席人力資源官，他帶來了在組織和人力資本管理方面具有世界一流經驗的卓越業績。約翰將有助於實現我們的文化和價值觀，並有助於我們業務的長期成功。我要感謝 Corbin Walburger 和 Deborah Wintner 在公司的這個關鍵轉型時期所發揮的領導作用和做出的重大貢獻。我期待著繼續與他們一起作為 Stanley Black & Decker 的主要領導者共事。

Turning to our supply chain transformation. We have line of sight to deliver cumulative savings of $500 million by the end of 2023 and $1.5 billion by 2025. Building off the momentum from last quarter, we activated our transformation with a sense of urgency to optimize our operations, which better serve our customers while also being efficient and agile with our footprint and cost structure. After approving and initiating action on our SKU reductions, we now have approximately 50,000 SKUs that we are no longer manufacturing and are approved for decommission. Throughout 2023, we will work to transition our customers to the products that deliver the most value for our end users.

轉向我們的供應鏈轉型。我們預計到 2023 年底累計節省 5 億美元，到 2025 年累計節省 15 億美元。在上個季度的勢頭基礎上，我們以緊迫感啟動了轉型，以優化我們的運營，從而更好地為我們的客戶服務同時我們的足跡和成本結構也變得高效和敏捷。在批准並開始減少我們的 SKU 後，我們現在有大約 50,000 個 SKU，我們不再製造這些 SKU 並獲准停用。在整個 2023 年，我們將努力讓我們的客戶過渡到為我們的最終用戶帶來最大價值的產品。

As we shared last quarter, the strategic sourcing team activated quick wins. We are pleased to share that this early traction has already generated $40 million in savings. Wave 1 is now fully activated and addresses approximately $2 billion of spend, which is covered by 20 RFPs that are due back this quarter. We also successfully advanced our facility optimization and distribution network planning. The detailed feasibility analysis nearing completion this quarter with execution of the plan to follow shortly thereafter.

正如我們在上個季度分享的那樣，戰略採購團隊啟動了速贏。我們很高興地與大家分享，這種早期的牽引力已經產生了 4000 萬美元的節省。第 1 波現已完全啟動並解決了大約 20 億美元的支出，這些支出包含在本季度到期的 20 個 RFP 中。我們還成功推進了設施優化和分銷網絡規劃。詳細的可行性分析在本季度接近完成，隨後不久將執行計劃。

Lastly, we have heightened our focus on manufacturing excellence, reemphasizing SBD Kaizen and Lean manufacturing practices at our factories. Activation at 4 plants will be complete this quarter. And in March, we will initiate the next wave. We have exited the acute phase of pandemic-driven supply constraints. And as such, refocusing our plans on continuous improvement rigor will enable the acceleration of value across the network. You can expect us to continue to take strides forward, and we will provide you with updates towards achieving our cumulative $1 billion of savings by the end of 2023 on our path to delivering total program savings of $2 billion by 2025.

最後，我們加強了對卓越製造的關注，再次強調我們工廠的 SBD Kaizen 和精益製造實踐。 4 家工廠的啟動工作將於本季度完成。在 3 月，我們將啟動下一波。我們已經退出了由大流行病驅動的供應限制的嚴重階段。因此，將我們的計劃重新聚焦於持續改進的嚴謹性，將使整個網絡的價值加速增長。您可以期待我們繼續向前邁進，我們將向您提供最新信息，以實現到 2023 年底累計節省 10 億美元的目標，到 2025 年實現計劃總節省 20 億美元的目標。

I will now pass it to Corbin, who will take you through more detailed commentary on the fourth quarter and full year performance as well as our 2023 guidance. Corbin?

我現在將它傳遞給 Corbin，他將向您介紹有關第四季度和全年業績以及我們 2023 年指導的更詳細評論。科爾賓？

Thank you, Don, and good morning, everyone. Let me walk through the details of our business segment performance. Beginning with Tools & Outdoor, fourth quarter revenues were in line with last year at $3.4 billion, benefiting from a 7% improvement from price actions and an 8-point contribution from the MTD and Excel Outdoor acquisitions. Both of these acquisitions are now a part of organic growth beginning in December. These factors were offset by a 12% decline in volume and a negative 3% impact from currency. From a full year perspective, Tools & Outdoor achieved record revenue of $14.4 billion, driven by a 7% improvement from price actions and 21% growth contributed by our outdoor acquisitions, which was offset by softer consumer demand and currency.

謝謝你，唐，大家早上好。讓我詳細介紹一下我們業務部門的業績。從 Tools & Outdoor 開始，第四季度的收入與去年持平，為 34 億美元，這得益於價格行動帶來的 7% 的增長以及 MTD 和 Excel Outdoor 收購帶來的 8 個百分點的貢獻。這兩項收購現在都是從 12 月開始的有機增長的一部分。這些因素被 12% 的銷量下降和 3% 的匯率負面影響所抵消。從全年的角度來看，工具與戶外業務實現了創紀錄的 144 億美元收入，這主要得益於價格行動帶來的 7% 的改善以及戶外收購帶來的 21% 的增長，這被疲軟的消費者需求和貨幣所抵消。

Looking at the regions, Latin America achieved 4% organic growth. Although Europe declined 3% organically, performance improved sequentially from the third quarter, and we believe the more significant impacts from U.K. channel destocking are now behind us. North America was down 7% as a result of lower consumer and DIY market demand as well as the third quarter carrying heavier holiday promotional shipments compared to last year. U.S. retail point of sale was supported by price increases and professional demand. Compared to a pre-COVID 2019 baseline, the fourth quarter POS growth was consistent with the growth levels experienced in the third quarter of 2022. Aggregate weeks of supply in these channels ended 1.5 weeks below 2019 levels.

從地區來看，拉丁美洲實現了 4% 的有機增長。儘管歐洲有機下降 3%，但業績較第三季度有所改善，我們相信英國渠道去庫存帶來的更重大影響現已過去。由於消費者和 DIY 市場需求下降以及第三季度與去年相比假日促銷出貨量增加，北美地區下降了 7%。美國零售銷售點受到價格上漲和專業需求的支撐。與 2019 年 COVID 之前的基線相比，第四季度 POS 增長與 2022 年第三季度的增長水平一致。這些渠道的總供應週數比 2019 年水平低 1.5 週。

Adjusted operating margin for the segment was 1% in the quarter as the benefit from price realization was more than offset by commodity inflation, higher supply chain costs, planned production curtailments and lower volume. For the year, operating margin was 8.4%, down versus prior year.

該部門本季度調整後的營業利潤率為 1%，因為價格實現帶來的好處被大宗商品通脹、供應鏈成本上升、計劃減產和產量下降所抵消。全年營業利潤率為 8.4%，低於上年。

Turning to the strategic business units. For the full year, Power Tools declined 5% organically, due to weakness in consumer and DIY and front half constraints related to electronic components. These volume impacts were partially offset by the benefits of our price increases and the continued performance of our strong DEWALT cordless innovation across our FLEXVOLT, ATOMIC and XTREME product families as well as our new and differentiated power stack battery packs. Hand tools declined 5% organically in the year.

轉向戰略業務部門。全年，電動工具有機下降 5%，原因是消費和 DIY 疲軟以及與電子元件相關的前半部分限制。這些銷量影響被我們的價格上漲和我們強大的 DEWALT 無繩創新在我們的 FLEXVOLT、ATOMIC 和 XTREME 產品系列以及我們新的和差異化的電源組電池組中的持續表現所帶來的好處所部分抵消。手動工具在這一年有機地下降了 5%。

Consumer-related headwinds were partially offset by price realization as well as new product innovation, notably the DEWALT Impact Connect, which consists of accessories that attach to an impact driver, allowing up to 4x faster cutting than standard hand tools. We also benefited from innovation in storage solutions such as mobile tool storage within the DEWALT Tough system and the CRAFTSMAN Premium S2000 metal storage platform.

與消費者相關的逆風被價格實現和新產品創新部分抵消，特別是 DEWALT Impact Connect，它由連接到衝擊驅動器的附件組成，切割速度比標準手動工具快 4 倍。我們還受益於存儲解決方案的創新，例如 DEWALT Tough 系統中的移動工具存儲和 CRAFTSMAN Premium S2000 金屬存儲平台。

The Outdoor business declined 7% organically on a pro forma basis for 2022 due to the difficult outdoor season outlined earlier in the year. The fourth quarter marked the 1-year anniversary of the MTD and Excel acquisitions, and we're pleased with the progress made to advance the outdoor platform integration. We now have a combined dealer channel sales team and launched one go-to-market approach to grow share. We've activated a brand portfolio strategy, leveraging DEWALT, CUB CADET and HUSTLER in the Pro and high-end resi market segment while targeting CRAFTSMAN, Troy-Bilt, WOLF-Garten and Black&Decker for the residential end user. I want to acknowledge and thank the entire team for their dedication to this process and ongoing commitment to delivering the best products for our customers.

由於今年早些時候概述的艱難的戶外季節，戶外業務在 2022 年的預估基礎上有機下降 7%。第四季度標誌著 MTD 和 Excel 收購一周年，我們對在推進戶外平台整合方面取得的進展感到高興。我們現在擁有一個合併的經銷商渠道銷售團隊，並推出了一種進入市場的方法來增加份額。我們啟動了品牌組合戰略，在專業和高端樹脂細分市場中利用 DEWALT、CUB CADET 和 HUSTLER，同時針對住宅最終用戶定位 CRAFTSMAN、Troy-Bilt、WOLF-Garten 和 Black&Decker。我要承認並感謝整個團隊對這一過程的奉獻，以及為我們的客戶提供最好產品的持續承諾。

Now shifting to Industrial, which had another strong quarter, recording 10% organic growth and double-digit adjusted operating margin. Segment revenue declined 1% versus last year as 9 points of price realization and 1 point of volume were offset by 5 points from currency and 6 points from the oil and gas divestiture. The team leveraged the price increases and volume growth to overcome commodity inflation and higher supply chain costs to deliver adjusted operating margin of 11.5%, up sequentially 40 basis points and up 220 basis points versus last year.

現在轉向工業，它有另一個強勁的季度，錄得 10% 的有機增長和兩位數的調整後營業利潤率。與去年相比，該部門的收入下降了 1%，因為 9 個百分點的價格實現和 1 個數量點被貨幣的 5 個百分點和石油和天然氣剝離的 6 個百分點所抵消。該團隊利用價格上漲和銷量增長來克服商品通脹和更高的供應鏈成本，實現了 11.5% 的調整後營業利潤率，與去年相比連續上升 40 個基點和 220 個基點。

Looking within the segment, Engineered Fastening organic revenues were up 9% in the quarter, led by aerospace growth of 37% and auto growth of 14%, which were partially offset by industrial markets. Aerospace fasteners delivered its sixth consecutive quarter of sequential revenue improvement as the recovery in commercial OEM production continues. The auto fasteners' strong quarter, demonstrated by the businesses ability to gain share in a dynamic environment and outpaced global light vehicle production in the quarter and for the full year.

從細分市場來看，本季度 Engineered Fastening 的有機收入增長了 9%，航空航天增長 37%，汽車增長 14%，這部分被工業市場所抵消。隨著商業 OEM 生產的持續復甦，航空航天緊固件連續第六個季度實現連續收入增長。汽車緊固件的強勁季度表現在企業在動態環境中獲得市場份額的能力，並超過了本季度和全年的全球輕型汽車產量。

Attachment Tools organic revenues were up 18%, driven by strategic pricing actions. While orders particularly from our dealer channel partners have been moderating, our backlog remains above 2019 levels. We continue to make progress with our inventory reduction in the fourth quarter, taking out nearly $500 million and resulting in a total second half inventory reduction of $775 million.

在戰略定價行動的推動下，附件工具有機收入增長了 18%。雖然來自我們經銷商渠道合作夥伴的訂單一直在放緩，但我們的積壓訂單仍高於 2019 年的水平。我們在第四季度的庫存削減方面繼續取得進展，減少了近 5 億美元，導致下半年總庫存減少 7.75 億美元。

Our production curtailment actions have been successful, helping to reduce DSI by approximately 20 days in the quarter, and it was good to see the significant inventory reduction in the second half translate into free cash flow generation in the fourth quarter.

我們的減產行動取得了成功，幫助將本季度的 DSI 減少了大約 20 天，很高興看到下半年庫存的大幅減少轉化為第四季度的自由現金流產生。

As we look to the front half of 2023, we are targeting another $500 million reduction with the majority of this progress to be made in the second quarter. Although we typically see a seasonal inventory build as we prepare for the outdoor and spring selling season, we have the ability to work down our input materials and components as well as drive commercial actions to sell through finished goods. Our full year 2023 inventory reduction target is $750 million to $1 billion, which will drive significant cash flow generation that will be used to pay down debt and further strengthen our balance sheet. The timing of this reduction is demand-dependent. In a few moments, I'll cover how these assumptions impact the 2023 guidance range.

展望 2023 年上半年，我們的目標是再削減 5 億美元，其中大部分進展將在第二季度實現。儘管在為戶外和春季銷售旺季做準備時，我們通常會看到季節性庫存增加，但我們有能力減少我們的輸入材料和組件，並推動商業活動通過成品進行銷售。我們 2023 年全年的庫存削減目標是 7.5 億美元至 10 億美元，這將推動大量現金流的產生，這些現金流將用於償還債務並進一步加強我們的資產負債表。這種減少的時間取決於需求。稍後，我將介紹這些假設如何影響 2023 年的指導範圍。

Turning to gross margins. We expect the impact of planned production curtailments and higher cost inventory liquidations will continue to weigh on margins through the first half of 2023, resulting in margins in the low 20s. Production curtailments in the fourth quarter were down approximately 30% versus the long-term average and impacted gross margins by approximately 6 to 7 points in the quarter. In our base case, we expect to improve from these levels but not fully eased production curtailments until the third quarter of 2023, which should support a gross margin recovery into the mid- to high 20s in the back half. The normalized production and better gross margins could potentially shift earlier or later in the year depending on the overall demand environment and the speed of destocking. We have the teams focused on inventory reduction, cash generation and balance sheet health as we work to drive gross margins to our historical 35% plus target level in 2025.

轉向毛利率。我們預計，到 2023 年上半年，計劃減產和成本更高的庫存清算的影響將繼續對利潤率構成壓力，導致利潤率降至 20 % 左右。第四季度的減產與長期平均水平相比下降了約 30%，並對該季度的毛利率產生了約 6 至 7 個百分點的影響。在我們的基本情況下，我們預計這些水平會有所改善，但要到 2023 年第三季度才會完全放鬆減產，這應該會支持毛利率在下半年恢復到 20 年代中高水平。取決於整體需求環境和去庫存的速度，正常生產和更好的毛利率可能會在今年提前或晚些時候轉移。我們的團隊專注於減少庫存、現金生成和資產負債表健康，因為我們致力於在 2025 年將毛利率提高到超過 35% 的歷史目標水平。

I'll now walk through how the company is planning for 3 demand scenarios for our 2023 guidance as the macroeconomic outlook remains dynamic. Our base case scenario assumes a modestly unfavorable market demand environment compared to what we experienced during the second half of last year. In this scenario, we are assuming total organic growth to be down low single digits with the first quarter being the toughest comp.

隨著宏觀經濟前景保持動態，我現在將介紹公司如何為我們的 2023 年指南規劃 3 種需求情景。我們的基本情景假設市場需求環境與去年下半年相比略微不利。在這種情況下，我們假設總有機增長率下降到低個位數，第一季度是最艱難的競爭。

Tools & Outdoor total organic revenue inclusive of positive price is expected to be down low single digits, while Industrial is planned for low single-digit growth. Specifically, for Tools & Outdoor, this would imply a full year volume decline of approximately 5%, ahead of our forecast for the market. For the second half, volume is expected to be down 3% to 3.5%. In this base case, we would maintain our production curtailments with the goal of returning to normalized levels in the third quarter.

包括正價格在內的工具和戶外總有機收入預計將下降到低個位數，而工業則計劃實現低個位數增長。具體而言，對於工具與戶外，這意味著全年銷量下降約 5%，高於我們對市場的預測。下半年，銷量預計將下降 3% 至 3.5%。在這種基本情況下，我們將維持減產，目標是在第三季度恢復到正常水平。

As a result, the under absorption of fixed manufacturing costs would continue to constrain first half 2023 operating margins to low single digits. As production returns to normalized levels in the back half of the year, we expect operating margin rate to improve to the mid- to high single-digit range. While our teams are aggressively focused on capturing deflation, this scenario does not include moderating commodity prices benefiting the P&L until late 2023 after the destock and can be a positive driver heading into 2024.

因此，固定製造成本的吸收不足將繼續將 2023 年上半年的營業利潤率限制在較低的個位數。隨著生產在今年下半年恢復正常水平，我們預計營業利潤率將提高至中高個位數範圍。雖然我們的團隊積極專注於捕捉通貨緊縮，但這種情況不包括在去庫存後到 2023 年末之前緩和商品價格以使損益受益，並且可能成為進入 2024 年的積極驅動力。

As we monitor the demand environment, we will be measured in the timing and magnitude of our investments, reinvesting into our businesses at the point of impact as part of our transformation strategy, and our base case scenario includes approximately $125 million of annualized reinvestment targeted at commercial leadership, driving innovation and complexity reduction.

在我們監控需求環境時，我們將衡量我們投資的時間和規模，在影響點對我們的業務進行再投資，作為我們轉型戰略的一部分，我們的基本情景包括大約 1.25 億美元的年度再投資，目標是商業領導力，推動創新和降低複雜性。

Shifting to our second half acceleration scenario. This contemplates the possibility of a stronger demand environment supporting organic growth in the second half of 2023. Total organic growth would be relatively flat for the year. To support the improved second half demand, production levels would normalize towards the end of the second quarter. This scenario would position us to deliver high single-digit operating margins in the second half as well as an elevated level of reinvestment to accelerate our transformation.

轉向我們的下半年加速情景。這考慮了 2023 年下半年支持有機增長的更強勁需求環境的可能性。全年有機增長總量將相對持平。為了支持下半年需求的改善，生產水平將在第二季度末恢復正常。這種情況將使我們能夠在下半年實現高個位數的營業利潤率以及更高水平的再投資以加速我們的轉型。

Lastly, we are preparing a downside case that reflects a deceleration of demand due to elevated recessionary pressures. In this case, we expect full year organic revenues to decline by mid-single digits with volume declines in both the tools and outdoor and industrial segments. If this were to occur, our production curtailments would likely continue through the end of 2023, extending the time line of our gross margin recovery. Under this scenario, we would opt to conservatively meter the level of reinvestment until we had more clarity on the extent and duration of the macro impacts and economic cycle.

最後，我們正在準備一個下行案例，反映經濟衰退壓力加大導致需求減速。在這種情況下，我們預計全年有機收入將下降中個位數，工具、戶外和工業領域的銷量都會下降。如果發生這種情況，我們的減產可能會持續到 2023 年底，從而延長我們毛利率恢復的時間線。在這種情況下，我們會選擇保守地衡量再投資水平，直到我們更加清楚宏觀影響和經濟周期的範圍和持續時間。

Overall, we feel it's prudent to consider this range of potential 2023 demand possibilities production and reinvestment levels as we continue to prioritize inventory reduction and cash generation. As such, we are guiding full year adjusted earnings per share in the range of $0 to $2. On a GAAP basis, we expect the earnings per share range to be negative $1.65 to positive $0.85, inclusive of onetime charges from the global supply chain optimization and the remaining outdoor integration-related expenses. The current pretax estimate for onetime charges is approximately $225 million to $325 million with $50 million to $100 million in noncash charges.

總體而言，我們認為考慮 2023 年潛在需求可能性的生產和再投資水平的範圍是謹慎的，因為我們繼續優先考慮減少庫存和產生現金。因此，我們指導全年調整後每股收益在 0 美元至 2 美元之間。根據 GAAP，我們預計每股收益為負 1.65 美元至正 0.85 美元，包括全球供應鏈優化的一次性費用和剩餘的戶外整合相關費用。當前一次性費用的稅前估計約為 2.25 億美元至 3.25 億美元，其中非現金費用為 5000 萬至 1 億美元。

Now some added quarterly context from our base case. For the first quarter, we're expecting similar levels of operating profit to what we delivered in the fourth quarter. However, we do not expect the discrete tax benefits to repeat, resulting in our first quarter adjusted loss of $0.75 per share at the midpoint. We believe profitability can improve sequentially into the second quarter, resulting in a stronger performance.

現在從我們的基本案例中添加了一些季度背景。對於第一季度，我們預計營業利潤水平與第四季度相似。然而，我們預計離散的稅收優惠不會重複，導致我們第一季度調整後每股虧損 0.75 美元中點。我們相信盈利能力可以在第二季度連續改善，從而帶來更強勁的業績。

In total, we expect our actions (inaudible) but will translate to positive first half free cash flow driven by $500 million of inventory reduction, most of which will come in the second quarter. As we get through the first half destock, we expect earnings to inflect positively in the second half of the year, generating an annualized EBITDA run rate of approximately $1.3 billion to $1.7 billion. We view this as a jumping off point to further improve with our transformation.

總的來說，我們預計我們的行動（聽不清）將轉化為積極的上半年自由現金流，這是由 5 億美元的庫存減少驅動的，其中大部分將在第二季度出現。隨著我們完成上半年去庫存，我們預計下半年收益將出現積極變化，年化 EBITDA 運行率約為 13 億至 17 億美元。我們將此視為進一步改進轉型的起點。

Our guidance calls for $500 million to $1 billion of free cash flow in 2023, primarily from inventory reduction. We're focused on our key priorities: number one, generate strong cash flow through inventory reduction to assist with ongoing debt deleveraging; number two, sequential improvement in our gross margins as we drive further supply chain transformation initiatives; and number three, focus on gaining market share in all major categories. We're planning for the dynamic operating environment to continue and feel we have the strategy in place to successfully navigate our path forward as we remain focused on driving above-market long-term organic growth.

我們的指導意見要求在 2023 年實現 5 億至 10 億美元的自由現金流，主要來自庫存減少。我們專注於我們的關鍵優先事項：第一，通過減少庫存產生強勁的現金流，以協助持續的債務去槓桿化；第二，隨著我們推動進一步的供應鏈轉型計劃，我們的毛利率連續改善；第三，專注於在所有主要類別中獲得市場份額。我們計劃讓動態的運營環境繼續下去，並且我們認為我們已經制定了成功的戰略，因為我們仍然專注於推動高於市場的長期有機增長。

With that, I will now turn the call back over to Don.

有了這個，我現在將把電話轉回給唐。

Thank you, Corbin. So in summary, we successfully advanced our cost reduction and business transformation strategy over the last quarter and made meaningful progress on a number of key objectives, including inventory reduction, cash generation, debt reduction and streamlining our organizational structure and supply chain. We have given you an indication today of what annualized EBITDA could be on the first step of this journey. We believe we can build from 2023 back half as our supply chain savings continue to accrue and contribute to the restoration of our gross margin to the 35% plus level.

謝謝你，科爾賓。因此，總而言之，我們在上個季度成功推進了成本削減和業務轉型戰略，並在一些關鍵目標上取得了有意義的進展，包括減少庫存、產生現金、減少債務以及精簡我們的組織結構和供應鏈。今天，我們已經向您表明，在這一旅程的第一步中，年化 EBITDA 可能是多少。我們相信我們可以從 2023 年開始後半部分，因為我們的供應鏈節餘繼續增加，並有助於將我們的毛利率恢復到 35% 以上的水平。

As we look ahead, we aim to get our levels of EBITDA back to 2019 levels and beyond as we continue to transform our business. While the macroeconomic environment is uncertain and 2023 will clearly bring us challenges, we are prepared to navigate forward and believe our actions to reshape, focus and streamline our organization as well as reinvest in our core businesses will enable us to deliver strong shareholder value over the long term via robust organic growth and enhanced profitability.

展望未來，我們的目標是讓我們的 EBITDA 水平回到 2019 年甚至更高的水平，因為我們將繼續轉變我們的業務。儘管宏觀經濟環境不確定，2023 年顯然會給我們帶來挑戰，但我們已準備好向前邁進，並相信我們重塑、集中和精簡我們的組織以及對核心業務進行再投資的行動將使我們能夠在未來為股東創造強大的價值通過強勁的有機增長和增強的盈利能力長期發展。

With that, we are now ready for Q&A. Dennis?

這樣，我們現在就可以進行問答了。丹尼斯？

Great. Thanks, Don. Shannon, we can now start Q&A, please. Thank you. .

偉大的。謝謝，唐。香農，我們現在可以開始問答了。謝謝。 .

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell with Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Julian Mitchell。

Maybe -- just my question would be around -- I guess, 2 quick parts. One would be, it looks like you're guiding for sort of positive price, I think, in Tools this year, maybe the conviction in that given what seems to be a lot of inventory kind of out there at customers and competitors. And then also, the second part would just be I heard what you said on the annualized EBITDA run rate. Are we still assuming a sort of $7 plus or so of EPS potential at Stanley in the medium term based off that? Or has that view changed?

也許——只是我的問題——我想，2 個快速部分。一個是，看起來你正在指導某種積極的價格，我認為，在今年的工具中，考慮到客戶和競爭對手那裡似乎有很多庫存，也許是對這一點的信念。然後，第二部分就是我聽到你對年化 EBITDA 運行率所說的話。基於此，我們是否仍假設中期斯坦利的 EPS 潛力超過 7 美元？還是這種看法改變了？

Yes. So I'll start and then Corbin probably will add a little color too on both of those topics. But I would say that our price model has about 1.5 to 2 points in it for the year for 2023. And based on where we are now with commodity prices, which you've seen some improvement or reduction, but overall, when you look at the basket of commodities for us, we really don't see any significant deflation and a little bit of inflation here in the first half of the year. So we still see based on that, that we can maintain price throughout the year.

是的。所以我會開始，然後 Corbin 可能會在這兩個主題上添加一些顏色。但我想說，我們的價格模型在 2023 年的這一年中大約有 1.5 到 2 個點。根據我們現在的商品價格，你看到商品價格有所改善或下降，但總的來說，當你看對於我們的商品籃子，我們真的看不到今年上半年這裡有任何明顯的通貨緊縮和一點點通貨膨脹。因此，我們仍然可以基於此看到，我們可以全年保持價格。

Now your question on the angle of there's a lot of inventory in the channel, and therefore, we're going to have to take specific promotional actions that might be unusual to drive inventory out of the channel, which, therefore, would impact our price. We don't really see that in our plan today. So we see normal promotional activity in the spring and the Father's Day season and then, of course, in the later stages around Thanksgiving and other holidays at the end of the year.

現在你的問題是渠道中有大量庫存，因此，我們將不得不採取可能不尋常的特定促銷行動來將庫存趕出渠道，從而影響我們的價格.我們今天的計劃中並沒有真正看到這一點。因此，我們在春季和父親節季節看到了正常的促銷活動，當然，在年底的感恩節和其他假期的後期階段。

And so at this point, we do not believe there's a need to do anything unusual around pricing activities to push things to the channel. One thing I'll just point out related to inventory levels in the channel. For us specifically, we actually feel where the inventory is in our customers is pretty reasonable at this point, and it's actually down a little bit from 2019 levels, and so -- probably about a week to 2 weeks down from those levels, which is a good place to be. And we feel like we've gone into the year with the adequate amount of inventory in their stores. And what we're dealing with is higher levels of inventory in our own distribution network that we have to work through during 2023 and probably some early stages of 2024. But the vast majority of that reduction is going to happen this year in 2023.

因此，在這一點上，我們認為沒有必要圍繞定價活動做任何不尋常的事情來將事情推向渠道。我要指出的一件事與渠道中的庫存水平有關。具體來說，對於我們來說，我們實際上覺得此時我們客戶的庫存是相當合理的，它實際上比 2019 年的水平下降了一點，所以 - 可能比這些水平下降了大約一周到兩週，這是一個好地方。而且我們覺得我們已經進入了一年，他們的商店中有足夠的庫存。我們正在處理的是我們自己的分銷網絡中更高水平的庫存，我們必須在 2023 年期間以及可能在 2024 年的一些早期階段解決這個問題。但絕大多數減少將發生在今年的 2023 年。

The second question was related to...

第二個問題是關於...

Long-term EPS.

長期每股收益。

Long-term EPS and the $7 and some commentary around that. So I think if you -- as you start to dissect the guidance we're providing at the midpoint, you'll see that the back half is getting itself close to a couple of dollars EPS for this year. And if you annualize that and factor in seasonality from the outdoor season that happens in the first half of the year primarily, you're probably trending something for 2024 that's closer to $5. And now that assumes that we deal with an environment that we have guided here, which is the midpoint is pretty muted from a volume perspective. We -- as you heard from Corbin in his presentation, the back half is assuming for the Tools & Outdoor business that the organic performance will be down about 3 points.

長期每股收益和 7 美元以及圍繞它的一些評論。所以我認為，如果你 - 當你開始剖析我們在中點提供的指導時，你會發現後半部分今年的每股收益接近幾美元。而且，如果您將其年化並考慮主要發生在今年上半年的戶外季節的季節性因素，您可能會在 2024 年趨勢接近 5 美元。現在假設我們處理的是我們在此處引導的環境，即從成交量的角度來看，中點非常安靜。我們 - 正如您在 Corbin 的演講中聽到的那樣，後半部分假設工具和戶外業務的有機表現將下降約 3 個百分點。

And as a result, that's really us seeing a continuation of current trends on the consumer side, but also likely some slowing on the Pro side as you start to look at lower housing start numbers, lower repair-remodel numbers year-over-year and as -- and we think this year, we'll see a negative organic performance at our base case. Now if that doesn't play out, and the performance is stronger, you heard from Corbin that it could be 2 to 3 points better for the year, and obviously the back half would be a better performance as well. If that played out, and then you went into 2024 with that type of momentum, there could be a case where you actually do work yourself closer back to the $7. So I think we're probably, at this point, somewhere around $5, with it eventually having the possibility, if the volume and demand is stronger than our base case, where it could be higher than that. Anything you want to add to that, Corbin?

因此，我們確實看到了消費者方面當前趨勢的延續，但也可能在專業方面有所放緩，因為您開始關注較低的房屋開工數量、同比較低的維修改造數量以及因為 - 我們認為今年，我們將在我們的基本案例中看到負面的有機表現。現在如果那沒有發揮出來，並且表現更強，你從科爾賓那裡聽說今年可能會好 2 到 3 分，顯然後半場也會有更好的表現。如果成功了，然後你以這種勢頭進入 2024 年，可能會出現這樣一種情況，你實際上確實在接近 7 美元。所以我認為，在這一點上，我們可能在 5 美元左右，如果數量和需求強於我們的基本情況，它最終有可能高於該水平。科爾賓，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No. The only thing, Julian, maybe for your model from a pricing standpoint, we're going to have some price carryover in the first half of a point or 2, and then that obviously anniversaries out by the second half.

不，朱利安，從定價的角度來看，唯一的事情可能是你的模型，我們將在前半部分或 2 點進行一些價格結轉，然後顯然是下半年的周年紀念日。

Our next question comes from the line of Tim Wojs with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Tim Wojs 與 Baird 的對話。

Don, maybe just kind of following on to your question -- or to some of the answers from the last question. Just what are you seeing from the Pro today? And I guess, kind of what -- within the scenarios that you've outlined, I mean, what are you kind of assuming that the Pro does as you kind of work through 2023?

唐，也許只是繼續你的問題——或者上一個問題的一些答案。您今天從 Pro 中看到了什麼？我想，在你概述的場景中，我的意思是，你假設 Pro 在你工作到 2023 年時會做什麼？

Yes. I would actually say coming out of the gate here in 2023, it was just one month under our belt, we're actually not seeing any slowing of the Pro. So the Pro business continues to be healthy. As we talk to our customers, they say the same thing. What we are, though, forecasting in our model is a slowing down of some of that activity. And when you look at the organic projection that we have for our Tools & Outdoor business, we expect it to slow down as we get deeper into the year and for that to continue in the back half of the year in a modest way.

是的。我實際上會說 2023 年走出大門，這只是我們的一個月，我們實際上沒有看到 Pro 有任何放緩。因此，Pro 業務繼續保持健康。當我們與客戶交談時，他們會說同樣的話。不過，我們在模型中預測的是某些活動的放緩。當您查看我們對工具和戶外業務的有機預測時，我們預計隨著今年的深入，它會放緩，並在今年下半年以適度的方式繼續。

And so I think that's a reasonable assumption when you give -- when you start to look at things like housing starts and the projections for housing starts, repair, remodel, what our customers are saying and their expectations are around likely performance year-over-year and what you hear from many of the peers in the space as well. I mean, everybody seems to be thinking that the market will probably be down somewhere 3% to 5%. And that's kind of where we are with our Tools & Outdoor business. And it aligns very much with the trends you're seeing in construction. And I think it is a good base case to start with, but as I said before, it could be better than that if the Pro doesn't weaken as much as I just described. It also could be worse than that, which I think our downside case covers that as Corbin articulated very well in his presentation.

所以我認為這是一個合理的假設，當你開始考慮房屋開工和房屋開工、維修、改建的預測時，我們的客戶所說的以及他們的期望可能與年度業績有關——年以及您從該領域的許多同行那裡聽到的內容。我的意思是，每個人似乎都認為市場可能會下跌 3% 到 5%。這就是我們的工具和戶外業務所處的位置。它非常符合您在建築中看到的趨勢。我認為這是一個很好的基礎案例，但正如我之前所說，如果 Pro 沒有像我剛才描述的那樣減弱，它可能會更好。它也可能比這更糟，我認為我們的不利情況涵蓋了 Corbin 在他的演講中闡述得很好的情況。

Our next question comes from the line of Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Nigel Coe 與 Wolfe Research 的合作。

Don, on the inventory reduction, I think you're still going to be carrying $5 billion of inventory at year-end. So just wondering why not be even more aggressive on that inventory reduction? And is there a risk that, that this could carry forward into 2024? And maybe just address the dividend. We've got a few questions this morning. Just is there any scenario you look at or any other scenario where you might have to revisit the dividend this year?

唐，關於減少庫存，我認為你在年底仍將持有 50 億美元的庫存。所以只是想知道為什麼不更積極地減少庫存？這是否有可能延續到 2024 年？也許只是解決紅利問題。今天早上我們有幾個問題。您有沒有看到任何情況或您今年可能不得不重新審視股息的任何其他情況？

Sure. I think on the inventory part of your question, I feel like going after $1 billion -- $750 million to $1 billion is the reasonable level that we should pursue given where our business model is today and our supply chain is today. Could we, over time, over the next 12 months, get to a number above $1 billion? Yes, that's possible. It probably wouldn't be dramatically above that number, though.

當然。我認為關於你問題的庫存部分，我想追求 10 億美元——7.5 億到 10 億美元是我們應該追求的合理水平，因為我們今天的商業模式和我們的供應鍊是這樣的。隨著時間的推移，在接下來的 12 個月內，我們能否達到 10 億美元以上的數字？是的，這是可能的。不過，它可能不會顯著高於該數字。

Now as you go into 2024, I don't think there's a need for another major step down in inventory. I think what we're going to see, if things go the way we would like them to go in 2023, we'll get a substantial chunk of inventory out in the first half of the year, a lot of that probably in Q2. We'll do some more at the end of the year in the fourth quarter, which tends to be part of the normal routine of our company.

現在進入 2024 年，我認為沒有必要再大幅減少庫存。我認為我們將會看到，如果事情按照我們希望的方式在 2023 年進行，我們將在今年上半年獲得大量庫存，其中很多可能在第二季度。我們將在年底的第四季度做更多的事情，這往往是我們公司正常工作的一部分。

And beyond that, I think it's just going to get back to managing and optimizing the supply chain to maximize the efficiency of it. And we'll continue to drive down inventory. But it won't be at the -- having an impact on our production. It will be more managing it efficiently, looking at how we do certain types of activities that drive reductions of $250 million to $500 million each year for maybe the subsequent 2 years, more in that magnitude. And I think that's the right way to look at it. I really would like to get production levels back to normal in the back half of '23. That is our goal. We think it's achievable based on our base case right now. And we'll continue to look at that. Obviously, Corbin articulated at the downside case, if we saw demand being even worse, then the production levels would have to stay lower probably through the remainder of the year. But in our base case, I think there's a good chance we can get production levels back to normal in the summertime of '23.

除此之外，我認為它只會回到管理和優化供應鏈以最大限度地提高效率。我們繼續降低庫存。但這不會對我們的生產產生影響。它將更有效地管理它，看看我們如何開展某些類型的活動，這些活動可能會在隨後的兩年內每年減少 2.5 億至 5 億美元，甚至更多。我認為這是看待它的正確方式。我真的很想在 23 年下半年讓生產水平恢復正常。這是我們的目標。我們認為，根據我們現在的基本情況，這是可以實現的。我們將繼續關注這一點。顯然，Corbin 闡明了不利情況，如果我們看到需求更糟，那么生產水平可能不得不在今年剩餘時間內保持較低水平。但在我們的基本情況下，我認為我們很有可能在 23 年夏季讓生產水平恢復正常。

On the dividend, very good question. Thank you for asking that. The dividend continues to be a very important part of our capital allocation strategy. We believe that it's a necessary thing for us to maintain the level of the dividend that we have today. We'll continue to evaluate that through the remainder of the year, but there's no change in that strategy at this stage. Obviously, buying back stock is not an opportunity for us given the leverage we have on our balance sheet. And so therefore, returning value back to our shareholders, the main lever we have today is our dividend.

關於股息，很好的問題。謝謝你這麼問。股息仍然是我們資本配置策略中非常重要的一部分。我們認為，保持今天的股息水平對我們來說是必要的。我們將在今年餘下時間繼續對此進行評估，但現階段該戰略沒有變化。顯然，鑑於我們在資產負債表上的槓桿作用，回購股票對我們來說不是一個機會。因此，將價值返還給我們的股東，我們今天擁有的主要槓桿是我們的股息。

Our next question comes from the line of Mike Rehaut with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Mike Rehaut。

Just wanted to make sure I fully appreciated the base case in terms of -- I think you said earlier that it incorporates a view around repair remodel activity being down also low single digits. I just want to make sure I understand that's right. I mean, obviously, you have existing home sale turnover trending down 30% year-over-year currently. And I think that might be, at least in our view, a little optimistic. But just wanted to understand your assumptions behind that. And also, if I could just kind of shift gears on the modeling side, would appreciate any views on some of the other line items from a guidance standpoint, corporate expense, interest expense, other net, some of those line items would be helpful.

只是想確保我完全理解基本案例——我想你之前說過，它包含了一個關於修復改造活動的觀點，它也下降了低個位數。我只是想確保我理解的是正確的。我的意思是，很明顯，您目前的成屋銷售營業額呈同比下降 30% 的趨勢。我認為，至少在我們看來，這可能有點樂觀。但只是想了解您背後的假設。而且，如果我能在建模方面換檔，從指導的角度來看，公司費用、利息費用、其他淨額等對其他一些項目的任何看法，這些項目中的一些都會有所幫助。

Mike, I'll take that. On the base case, as we said, the whole company we view in the base cases being down 2 to 3 points organically. Volume is more than that. There's some coverage from price. If you look at Tools organically, Tools will be down about 3 to 5 points, volume down 5 a little bit back from price. And then the second half, as Don mentioned, volumes down in the kind of 3% to 3.5%. And from an Industrial standpoint, we see that being up low single digits, both from price and from volume. So that's the case for how we got to the base case.

邁克，我會接受的。正如我們所說，在基本案例中，我們在基本案例中看到的整個公司有機地下降了 2 到 3 個百分點。體積遠不止於此。價格有一定的覆蓋面。如果您有機地查看工具，工具將下降約 3 到 5 個點，成交量從價格回落 5 個點。然後下半年，正如 Don 提到的那樣，銷量下降了 3% 到 3.5%。從工業的角度來看，我們看到價格和數量都在低個位數增長。這就是我們如何得出基本案例的情況。

I think the other thing that I would add is we -- if you look back at history of Stanley Black & Decker and if you kind of put the Great Recession in 2009 in a totally different category because we had a significant amount of overbuild residential inventory, in particular, in housing and say that's an unusual situation that's probably not indicative of where we are today because we don't have that type of overbuild situation and we don't have the same type of leverage issues within the consumer in the housing market as well. The other recessions that Stanley Black & Decker has historically experienced, the average decline has been about 3% to 5%.

我想我要補充的另一件事是我們——如果你回顧史丹利百得公司的歷史，如果你把 2009 年的大衰退歸為一個完全不同的類別，因為我們有大量過度建造的住宅庫存，特別是在住房方面，並說這是一種不尋常的情況，可能並不代表我們今天所處的位置，因為我們沒有那種過度建設的情況，而且我們在住房消費者中也沒有同樣類型的槓桿問題市場也是如此。 Stanley Black & Decker 歷史上經歷過的其他經濟衰退，平均降幅約為 3% 至 5%。

And so when you think about it from that perspective and recognize that we just went through a period of time where we're dealing with supply constraints and then a bit of a consumer dip in the back half of '22, now we believe we're going to see a bit of a Pro dip here in 2023, we're kind of aligned with our 3% to 5% in 2023 with that historical point of view. There hasn't been many recessions that have impacted housing beyond the 5% except for the one that I mentioned, which was the Great Recession, which is very different than usual. So it's just something that we need to keep in mind as you factor all the different scenarios that Corbin went through in the presentation and really center around our base case. Our base case is very consistent with what history would say.

因此，當你從這個角度考慮它並認識到我們剛剛經歷了一段時間我們正在處理供應限制然後在'22'的後半段消費下降時，現在我們相信我們'我們將在 2023 年看到一些 Pro 下降，從歷史角度來看，我們與 2023 年的 3% 到 5% 保持一致。除了我提到的那次大蕭條之外，沒有多少次經濟衰退對住房的影響超過 5%，這與往常有很大不同。因此，當您考慮 Corbin 在演示文稿中經歷的所有不同場景並真正以我們的基本案例為中心時，我們需要牢記這一點。我們的基本案例與歷史所說的非常一致。

Mike, just to touch on your other question around specific line items. As we said, the corporate expenses, we've really targeted to get back to 2019 levels. That's where we expect them and then interest because rates have gone up and the quantum has gone up, you'll probably see an increase in interest expense of about 20%.

邁克，只是想談談你關於特定訂單項的其他問題。正如我們所說，公司開支，我們的目標是回到 2019 年的水平。這就是我們對它們的預期，然後是利息，因為利率已經上升並且數量已經上升，你可能會看到利息支出增加約 20%。

Our next question comes from the line of Rob Wertheimer with Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Rob Wertheimer。

To the extent you can comment, how was your pricing in Tools & Storage achieved in 4Q compared with your channel partners, your home center pricing achieved? I mean, is there still a risk of major discounting to clear out inventory or otherwise reflect in an environment? Or do you think that we've come close to balance there?

在您可以評論的範圍內，與您的渠道合作夥伴相比，您在第四季度的工具和存儲定價如何實現，您的家庭中心定價如何實現？我的意思是，是否仍然存在大幅折扣以清空庫存或以其他方式反映在環境中的風險？或者你認為我們已經接近平衡了嗎？

Well, I think as we look at the pricing dynamics in Tools & Outdoor, we are monitoring all the different things that are happening across the different product families and categories related to price. And we really look at what our competitors are doing, we're obviously paying attention to monitoring what we're doing as well and making sure it's consistent with our expectations. But we didn't see any major turbulence in the market around pricing from our competitors during the fourth quarter. We do see here random kind of what I would call promotional activities to move inventory through some of our customers' stores, so you saw some of that happen in the fourth quarter. But it didn't dramatically shift the pricing dynamic, the list pricing dynamic in particular in that time horizon. That's something we will continue to monitor here going into '23 and make sure we stay focused on that throughout the year.

好吧，我認為當我們查看 Tools & Outdoor 的定價動態時，我們正在監控與價格相關的不同產品系列和類別中發生的所有不同事情。我們真的在看我們的競爭對手在做什麼，我們顯然也在註意監控我們在做什麼，並確保它符合我們的期望。但在第四季度，我們沒有看到競爭對手在定價方面出現任何重大動盪。我們確實在這裡看到了一些我稱之為促銷活動的隨機活動，以通過我們的一些客戶商店轉移庫存，所以你看到其中一些發生在第四季度。但它並沒有顯著改變定價動態，尤其是在那個時間範圍內的定價動態。這是我們將在 23 年繼續關注的事情，並確保我們全年都專注於此。

And it's always something that we have to factor into our decision-making. But we think the promotional calendar that we've built with our customers so far for this year and the other activities that we're able to do will allow us to achieve the level of inventory reduction we would like to get to, which is at $750 million to $1 billion. And we obviously have to be agile and flexible and look at what happens in the market. But at this stage, we're not seeing any irrational pricing activity.

這始終是我們必須將其納入決策的因素。但我們認為今年到目前為止我們與客戶一起制定的促銷日曆以及我們能夠開展的其他活動將使我們能夠達到我們希望達到的庫存減少水平，即7.5 億至 10 億美元。而且我們顯然必須敏捷靈活，看看市場上會發生什麼。但在這個階段，我們沒有看到任何不合理的定價活動。

Our next question comes from the line of Chris Snyder with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Chris Snyder。

So I wanted to ask about the gross margin recovery during 2023. When we see gross margin going from the 20% currently to the mid- to high 20s by the back half of the year, could you provide just a bit more color on the buildup here between the improvement of just getting past the destock versus some of the benefits of the Phase 1 supply chain transformation plan starting to come through?

所以我想問一下 2023 年的毛利率恢復情況。當我們看到毛利率從目前的 20% 到今年下半年的 20% 左右時，您能否提供更多關於增長的顏色在剛剛通過去庫存的改善與第一階段供應鏈轉型計劃開始實現的一些好處之間的區別？

Yes, (inaudible), Chris. So the gross margins, as we said, in the second half of 2022, on average, we're around 22%. And there was probably about a 4-point penalty driven by the production curtailments and liquidating the high-cost inventory. As we go through the course of 2023, that 4-point penalty slowly starts to decline to about 3.5 and then to 2.5 points by the end of the year. And again, it's a mix between -- we don't -- as I mentioned in my view on our guidance, we don't expect production curtailments to continue throughout the whole course of the year. So that will help us. And then as we liquidate the high-cost inventory, that also helps us. So by the end of the year, on an incurred basis, we will see margins slightly above 25%, but there will still be a little bit of penalty that would get us into the high 20s.

是的，（聽不清）克里斯。因此，正如我們所說，到 2022 年下半年，毛利率平均約為 22%。減產和清算高成本庫存可能會導致大約 4 分的罰款。隨著我們經歷 2023 年，4 分罰分開始慢慢下降到 3.5 分左右，然後到年底下降到 2.5 分。再一次，它是兩者之間的混合——我們沒有——正如我在我對我們的指導意見中提到的，我們預計減產不會在全年持續。這將對我們有所幫助。然後當我們清算高成本庫存時，這也對我們有幫助。因此，到今年年底，在已發生的基礎上，我們將看到略高於 25% 的利潤率，但仍然會有一點點懲罰，這將使我們進入 20 多歲的高位。

Our next question comes from the line of Dan Oppenheim with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Dan Oppenheim。

I was wondering (inaudible) the plans in different scenarios in terms of inventory, where you've talked about those situations and what -- how does it impact production, but it doesn't seem as though you would change your goals in terms of that $750 million to $1 billion reduction of inventory. Why not think about reducing inventory by more? Is there something in the supply chain that's leading you to think about keeping a higher level than where you've had historically? What's the overall thought there in terms of why not more inventory reduction?

我想知道（聽不清）不同情況下的庫存計劃，你談到了這些情況，以及它是如何影響生產的，但你似乎不會改變你的目標庫存減少 7.5 億至 10 億美元。為什麼不考慮進一步減少庫存呢？供應鏈中是否有什麼東西讓您考慮保持比以往更高的水平？就為什麼不進一步減少庫存而言，總體想法是什麼？

Yes. I would say the range actually is indicative of the range of EPS. So if the low end of range of EPS played out that Corbin articulated, then we'd probably be looking at $750 million of inventory reduction. Even though we would be continuing curtailments, the demand levels would be much lower. And so you have 2 to 3 points lower demand versus the base case.

是的。我會說這個範圍實際上是 EPS 範圍的指示。因此，如果 Corbin 闡明的每股收益範圍的低端發揮作用，那麼我們可能會考慮減少 7.5 億美元的庫存。即使我們將繼續削減，需求水平也會低得多。因此，與基本情況相比，您的需求要低 2 到 3 個百分點。

On the high end of the case, I think the $1 billion becomes very achievable because you're dealing with much higher levels of demand where organic for Tools & Outdoor would probably be flat year-over-year. And therefore, the $1 billion feels more achievable in that environment, and you're getting your production levels back to normal levels in the back half of the year or maybe sooner. And so that's where the range kind of plays out. As I mentioned earlier in response to Nigel's question, I do think if demand is stronger in the back half, we could see a possible improvement above the $1 billion. I don't think it would be a dramatic number, but a few hundred million dollars above that, it certainly makes sense. And so that's really where that range comes from. It really correlates well with the EPS range, which correlates well to the demand associated with those 3 different scenarios.

在高端情況下，我認為 10 億美元變得非常容易實現，因為你正在處理更高水平的需求，其中工具和戶外的有機產品可能同比持平。因此，在那種環境下，10 億美元感覺更容易實現，並且您將在今年下半年或更早的時候讓您的生產水平恢復到正常水平。這就是范圍發揮作用的地方。正如我之前在回答 Nigel 的問題時提到的那樣，我確實認為如果後半部分的需求更強勁，我們可能會看到超過 10 億美元的改善。我不認為這會是一個戲劇性的數字，但比這高出幾億美元，這當然是有道理的。因此，這確實是該範圍的來源。它與 EPS 範圍非常相關，EPS 範圍與這 3 種不同場景相關的需求非常相關。

Our next question comes from the line of Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Nicole DeBlase。

Just to maybe piggyback on one of the earlier questions. Can you just give a little bit more color on the ramp of the cost savings that you guys expect to achieve throughout 2023, would take into the base case? And then any help at all on as we think about '24 and '25? It might be a bit early to give us explicit numbers. But is more of the plan coming through in '24? Or is it more back-end loaded towards the end of the 3-year period?

只是為了可能搭載早期的問題之一。您能否在基本案例中考慮到你們期望在整個 2023 年實現的成本節約的增加一點顏色？然後在我們考慮'24 和'25 時有任何幫助嗎？現在給我們明確的數字可能有點早。但是更多的計劃是在 24 年通過的嗎？還是在 3 年期末加載更多的後端？

Nicole, it's Corbin. I'll take it. So as Don mentioned, in 2022 in the second half, we've got about $200 million of savings. And as we look into 2023, from an SG&A standpoint, we expect to get about $300 million. About 70% of that will come in the front half and about 30% will come in the back half as you lap 2022. And then on the [COGS] side, we expect about $450 million, and that will build throughout the year. So Q1 will be a little bit higher and then it will build in 2Q, 3Q, and 4Q will be pretty even.

妮可，是科爾賓。我要買它。正如 Don 提到的那樣，到 2022 年下半年，我們將節省大約 2 億美元。當我們展望 2023 年時，從 SG&A 的角度來看，我們預計將獲得約 3 億美元。到 2022 年，大約 70% 將出現在前半部分，大約 30% 將出現在後半部分。然後在 [COGS] 方面，我們預計大約 4.5 億美元，並且這將在全年增加。所以第一季度會高一點，然後它會在第二季度、第三季度和第四季度建立起來。

Yes. And I think for '24 and '25, I mean, we're trying -- obviously, with the numbers that you just heard, we believe we'll have $1 billion of value creation by the end of '23. And then there's another $1 billion related to the supply chain transformation in the subsequent 2 years of '24 and '25. Right now, based on the plan we have that our operations and business teams have collectively worked together on, that $1 billion has a specific level of detail and actions that are associated with it that we believe are close to being rock solid. And therefore, we do think in those 2 years, we'll probably get about $500 million or so of that in each year. And we'll see as we get deeper into 2023, whether more comes in 2024 versus '25, time will tell.

是的。我認為對於 24 年和 25 年，我的意思是，我們正在嘗試 - 顯然，根據您剛剛聽到的數字，我們相信到 23 年底我們將創造 10 億美元的價值。然後在隨後的 24 年和 25 年的兩年中，還有 10 億美元與供應鏈轉型相關。目前，根據我們的運營和業務團隊共同製定的計劃，這 10 億美元具有特定級別的細節和與之相關的行動，我們認為這接近於堅如磐石。因此，我們確實認為在這兩年中，我們每年可能會獲得大約 5 億美元左右的收入。隨著 2023 年的深入，我們將看到 2024 年與 25 年相比是否會有更多，時間會證明一切。

But at this stage, it feels like the way that we're phasing this because it is a pretty significant level of transformation that we're doing across our supply chain, and we need to be thoughtful as to when we do different phases of it, so we don't cause any major disruption to our customers, which is why it's going to take 3 years to do. At the same time, it's also why the value probably would be pretty evenly prorated over a 3-year time horizon.

但在這個階段，感覺就像我們分階段進行的方式，因為這是我們在整個供應鏈中進行的相當重要的轉型，我們需要考慮何時進行不同階段的轉型，所以我們不會對我們的客戶造成任何重大干擾，這就是為什麼需要 3 年時間才能完成。同時，這也是為什麼價值可能會在 3 年的時間範圍內按比例分配的原因。

Our next question comes from the line of Eric Bosshard with Cleveland Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cleveland Research 的 Eric Bosshard。

Curious on, Don, you talked about '24 of $5 to $7 in a rough frame. And I know 6 months ago, that was the concept for '23. What's so notably different in '23 that pushed out that level of earnings to '24?

很好奇，唐，你在一個粗略的框架中談到了 5 美元到 7 美元的 24 年。我知道 6 個月前，這是 23 年的概念。 23 年有什麼顯著不同將收入水平推高到 24 年？

Yes. I would say there's a couple of dynamics. I mean, obviously, volume continues to be challenging. We think volume is going to be challenging for 2023. I talked about what I think is going to happen with the Pro market in '23, and we'll see a modest recession aligned with what the historical recessions are for Stanley Black & Decker of down 3% to 5%. Clearly, that's a significant factor in all of this. We're also -- we've decided to be much more aggressive in the inventory reduction than we were thinking 3, 5 months ago, where we were going to be more methodical in that reduction. We're being more aggressive. We're really trying to get a large part of this done by the middle of '23 to get production levels, as I said, back to normal in the back half of '23. And those are probably the two main drivers of the difference in the timing.

是的。我會說有幾個動態。我的意思是，顯然，交易量仍然具有挑戰性。我們認為 2023 年的銷量將面臨挑戰。我談到了我認為 23 年專業市場將會發生的事情，我們將看到適度的衰退與史丹利百得的歷史衰退一致下降 3% 至 5%。顯然，這是所有這一切的一個重要因素。我們也 - 我們已經決定在減少庫存方面比我們在 3、5 個月前的想法更加積極，我們將在減少庫存方面更有條理。我們變得更有侵略性了。正如我所說，我們真的在努力在 23 世紀中期完成大部分工作，以使生產水平在 23 世紀後半段恢復正常。這些可能是時間差異的兩個主要驅動因素。

Thank you. I would now like to turn hand the call back over to Dennis Lange for closing remarks.

謝謝。我現在想把電話轉回給 Dennis Lange 作結束語。

Shannon, thanks. We'd like to thank everyone again for their time and participation on the call. Obviously, please contact me if you have further questions. Thank you.

香農，謝謝。我們再次感謝大家抽出時間參與電話會議。顯然，如果您還有其他問題，請與我聯繫。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。