Suzano SA (SUZ) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for holding, and welcome to Suzano's conference call to discuss the results for the first quarter of 2025. We would like to inform that our participants will be in a list and only mode during the presentation that will be addressed by the CEO, Mr. Beto Abreu and other executive officers. This call will be presented in English with simultaneous translation to Portuguese (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的出席，歡迎參加 Suzano 的電話會議，討論 2025 年第一季度的業績。我們想通知您，我們的參與者在演示過程中將處於清單和唯一模式，首席執行官 Beto Abreu 先生和其他執行官將發表講話。本次電話會議將以英語進行，並同步翻譯成葡萄牙語（操作員指示）

Please be aware that any forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs and assumptions of Suzano's management and on the information currently available to the company. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions because they relate to future events and therefore, depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. You should understand that general economic conditions, industry conditions and other operating factors could also affect the future results of Suzano and could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements.

請注意，任何前瞻性陳述均基於 Suzano 管理層的信念和假設以及公司目前掌握的資訊。它們涉及風險、不確定性和假設，因為它們與未來事件有關，因此取決於未來可能發生或可能不會發生的情況。您應該瞭解，一般經濟狀況、產業狀況和其他營運因素也可能影響 Suzano 的未來業績，並可能導致結果與此類前瞻性陳述中表達的結果有重大差異。

Now I will turn the conference over to Mr. Beto Abreu. Please, you may begin your presentation.

現在我將會議交給貝托·阿布雷烏先生。請開始您的演講。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for attending the 2025 first quarter conference call. Suzano has presented a set of results for the Pulp and Paper business, which are fully in line with our plan for the period. Inventory was rebuilt to normalized levels despite the concentration of maintenance downtimes in the first quarter. And Pulp and Paper, invoicing prices, cash cost performance, CapEx disbursement and the main metrics of our balance sheets come as expected by the management. And the team will cover here during the call all the details regarding those points. Looking now to the current environment, we have the level of uncertainty escalated.

大家早安，感謝大家參加2025年第一季電話會議。Suzano 公佈了紙漿和造紙業務的一系列業績，這些業績完全符合我們本期的計劃。儘管第一季集中了維護停機時間，但庫存仍恢復到正常水準。紙漿和造紙的發票價格、現金成本表現、資本支出和資產負債表的主要指標均符合管理階層的預期。團隊將在通話中介紹有關這些要點的所有細節。縱觀當前環境，不確定性程度進一步加劇。

Since April 2, the focus on strengthening our competitive position became even more critical in an increasingly unpredictable global landscape. Although Suzano already has the ability to generate free cash flow in any pulp price scenario, do it to a resilient business model going forward, we see room to become even more competitive, further reducing our cash costs, further reducing our SG&A cost and also CapEx per ton as we move ahead in 2025. And this is fully aligned with our total operational disbursement guidance for 2027.

自 4 月 2 日起，在日益難以預測的全球局勢下，加強我們的競爭地位變得更加重要。儘管 Suzano 已經有能力在任何紙漿價格情況下產生自由現金流，但透過未來有彈性的商業模式，我們看到了更具競爭力的空間，進一步降低我們的現金成本，進一步降低我們的銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 成本以及每噸資本支出，隨著我們在 2025 年向前邁進。這與我們 2027 年的總營運支出指引完全一致。

Our conservative approach is also valid to our financial strength. So deleveraging continues to be our priority. Before handing over to Fabio, I would like also to reinforce that Suzano will keep it focused to help serve our customers globally especially in a great trade turmoil.

我們的保守做法也有利於我們的財務實力。因此，去槓桿仍然是我們的首要任務。在將工作交給 Fabio 之前，我還想強調，Suzano 將繼續專注於為全球客戶提供服務，尤其是在巨大的貿易動盪時期。

Fabio, let me hand over to you to cover the Paper and Packaging business.

法比奧，讓我把紙張和包裝業務交給你。

Thanks, Beto, and good morning, everyone. Please let's turn to the next page of the presentation. Our first quarter results were marked by price evolutions in our Brazilian and American operations. Sales volume growth on a year-over-year basis, improvements in our Suzano packaging operations and results and higher costs in Brazilian operations due to the annual maintenance downtime on line one of the Mucuri mill.

謝謝，貝托，大家早安。請我們翻到簡報的下一頁。我們第一季的業績以巴西和美國業務的價格變化為標誌。銷售量年增，Suzano 包裝業務和業績有所改善，但由於 Mucuri 工廠一號線每年進行維護停機，導致巴西業務成本增加。

As you can see in this slide, we have segregated Suzano's packaging performance to provide you a detailed and transparent view of its progress and to enable you, our comparable basis analysis with previous quarter of our mainstream business from Brazilian operations.

正如您在這張幻燈片中看到的，我們將 Suzano 的包裝業績分離開來，以便為您提供有關其進展的詳細透明的視圖，並為您提供與上一季度巴西業務主流業務的可比基礎分析。

Now talking about demand. Looking to the Brazilian market, according to IBA, print and right demand, including imports, increased by 21% in the first two months of the first quarter compared to the same period of last year. Sales from domestic producers grew by 23%, while imports grew by 19% on the same basis. 2025 is expected to be a record year in terms of paper demand for the Brazilian government tax book program. And therefore, domestic demand growth in Q1 reflected a higher-than-expected demand for uncoated wood-free paper.

現在談論需求。放眼巴西市場，據IBA稱，今年第一季前兩個月，包括進口在內的印刷品和版權需求與去年同期相比成長了21%。國內生產商的銷售額成長了23%，而進口量則在相同基礎上成長了19%。預計2025年將成為巴西政府稅務簿計畫紙張需求創紀錄的一年。因此，第一季國內需求成長反映出對無塗佈無木漿紙的需求高於預期。

Cut size and coated paper demands were stable year-over-year. Looking to other regions on a year-over-year basis and according to PPPC demand for uncoatable free papers, our main export of products has kept stable in North America, has shrunk 7% in Europe and grow 4.4% in Latin America. International markets continue to be oversupplied in Q1 and market dynamics could change going forward depending on the outcome of ongoing trade discussions.

切紙和塗佈紙的需求較去年同期保持穩定。放眼其他地區較去年同期，根據PPPC對免塗佈紙的需求情況，我司主要產品出口在北美地區維持穩定，歐洲地區縮水7%，拉丁美洲地區成長4.4%。第一季國際市場持續供應過剩，未來市場動態可能會根據正在進行的貿易談判的結果而改變。

Now address the US paperboard demand. In Brazil, we saw 8% decline in the first two months of the quarter compared to the same period last year. This reduction reflects the cooling of the Brazilian economy and adjustments of the supply chain after strong second semester in 2024. In the US market, a Fox region for Suzano Packaging operations according to no matter, box bar demand has shrunk 1% on a year-over-year basis.

現在解決美國紙板的需求。在巴西，本季前兩個月的銷售額與去年同期相比下降了 8%。這一下降反映了巴西經濟在2024年第二季強勁成長後的降溫以及供應鏈的調整。在美國市場，根據Suzano Packaging的Fox地區業務稱，無論盒裝棒材的需求量與去年同期相比都萎縮了1%。

However, demand for SBS board, which Suzano packaging producers has increased by 1% over the same period. Looking at Suzano figures. Our sales volume performance in the quarter Brazilian domestic market grew year-over-year with solid demand for our products. While exports from Brazil have declined due to our strategy to rebuild our inventories in Brazil and at our international warehouses.

然而，Suzano包裝生產商的SBS紙板需求在同一時期增加了1%。看看 Suzano 的數字。由於我們產品的需求強勁，本季巴西國內市場的銷售量較去年同期成長。由於我們在巴西和國際倉庫重建庫存的策略，巴西的出口量有所下降。

On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the decline in sales from our operations in Brazil is due to market seasonality. I would like to highlight, the sales volumes of Suzano packaging, which increased by 62% on a quarter-over-quarter basis, driven by improved operational performance across the business. In terms of pricing year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter increases in our Brazilian operations reflect the successful implementation of price announcements in our main product lines.

與上一季相比，我們巴西業務的銷售額下降是由於市場季節性的影響。我想強調的是，Suzano 包裝的銷售量較上季成長了 62%，這得益於整個業務營運績效的提升。就定價而言，我們巴西業務的同比和環比價格均有所增長，這反映了我們主要產品線價格公告的成功實施。

Additionally, a more favorable FX contributed to higher net prices to now exports when compared to Q1 '24. Turning to Suzano package, net prices rose 15% from Q4 2024. As a result of new commercial conditions on its main contracts that took effect in January '25.

此外，與 2024 年第一季相比，更有利的外匯匯率導致當前出口淨價格上漲。談到 Suzano 套餐，淨價格較 2024 年第四季上漲了 15%。這是由於其主要合約的新商業條件於 25 年 1 月生效。

The EBITDA performance from our Brazilian operations was impacted by seasonality when compared to Q4 '24 and by a major annual maintenance downtime at line one of Mucuri mill when compared to Q1 2024. Although such downtime affect both volumes and costs during the quarter, significant upgrades were made to the paper machine and we expect improved efficiency from Mucuri line one going forward.

與 2024 年第四季相比，我們巴西業務的 EBITDA 業績受到季節性影響，與 2024 年第一季相比，則受到 Mucuri 工廠一號線年度重大維護停機的影響。儘管此類停機影響了本季度的產量和成本，但造紙機已進行了重大升級，我們預計 Mucuri 一號線的效率將有所提高。

I am pleased to share further updates on Suzano packaging, which EBITDA improved 67% on a quarter-over-quarter basis underscoring the progress of our turnaround strategy. With operations approaching breakeven, we are confident in achieving positive EBITDA in the second half of this year.

我很高興與大家分享有關 Suzano 包裝的進一步更新信息，其 EBITDA 環比增長了 67%，突顯了我們的扭虧為盈戰略的進展。隨著營運接近損益平衡，我們有信心在今年下半年實現正的 EBITDA。

Looking ahead to Suzano's Paper and Packaging business performance from our Brazilian operations, we expect lower costs for Q2 with no maintenance scheduled during the quarter. During Q2, we will have the annual downtime of Suzano packaging [Pine plus] which will impact our volumes and costs during the quarter.

展望 Suzano 巴西業務的造紙和包裝業務表現，我們預計第二季成本會降低，因為本季沒有安排維護。在第二季度，我們將面臨 Suzano 包裝 [Pine plus] 年度停產，這將影響我們本季的產量和成本。

Due to macroeconomic uncertainty generated by the ongoing trade war, paper demand and prices in the international markets can be affected. In Brazil, we expect our prices to be stable for the rest of the year for cut size and accountable feed rates. Price for paperboard and coated papers may follow the dynamic of international prices due to import volumes and prices in Brazil.

由於持續的貿易戰造成的宏觀經濟不確定性，國際市場的紙張需求和價格可能會受到影響。在巴西，我們預計今年剩餘時間內切割尺寸和可靠進料率的價格將保持穩定。由於巴西的進口量和價格，紙板和塗佈紙的價格可能會跟隨國際價格的動態。

Now I'll hand it over to Leo, who will present our Pulp business results.

現在我將把麥克風交給 Leo，他將介紹我們的紙漿業務成果。

Thank you, Fabio, and good morning, everyone. Moving to the next slide of our presentation. I would like to begin by sharing some facts related to our pulp business unit during this past quarter. As I mentioned during our Q4 presentation, higher-than-expected demand during the last months of 2024, mainly due to the effects of two unplanned events being the conversion of paper grade pulp to dissolving pulp by a Brazilian pulp player and the halting of [Shen Ming's] operation in China allowed us to reach an all-time high sales volume in Q4 '24.

謝謝你，法比奧，大家早安。轉到我們簡報的下一張投影片。首先，我想分享一些與我們的紙漿業務部門上個季度相關的事實。正如我在第四季度報告中提到的那樣，2024 年最後幾個月的需求高於預期，主要是由於兩起意外事件的影響，即巴西一家紙漿生產商將紙漿轉換為溶解漿，以及中國沈明紙業的停產，這讓我們在 2024 年第四季度的銷量達到了歷史最高水平。

But this also really stressed our global logistics operations as our Pulp inventories became unsustainably low. As we entered Q1 '25, even in the quarter where our production volumes were already impacted by our heavy maintenance downtime schedule restocking to optimum operational levels was necessary -- was necessary across all our system and regions in order to restore operational efficiency, support our long-term strategy and improve service level to our contractual customers.

但這也給我們的全球物流運作帶來了很大壓力，因為我們的紙漿庫存變得難以維持的低水準。當我們進入 2025 年第一季時，即使我們的產量已經受到大規模維護停機計劃的影響，我們仍然有必要將庫存補充到最佳運營水平——在我們所有的系統和地區都需要恢復運營效率，支持我們的長期戰略並提高對合約客戶的服務水平。

I would highlight that our inventories are now normalized, and we do not foresee any need for further inventory buildups moving ahead. From a market perspective, Q1 '25 presented positive short-term S&D fundamentals, mainly due to unexpected events, as I just stated. Price increases were implemented throughout Q1, in line with our price increase announcements.

我想強調的是，我們的庫存現在已經正常化，我們預計未來不需要進一步增加庫存。從市場角度來看，2025 年第一季呈現出正面的短期 S&D 基本面，這主要是由於意外事件，正如我剛才所說。根據我們的漲價公告，價格已在第一季全部實施。

Despite this positive trend, invoicing of our order backlogs generated mainly in Q4, affected our average prices in the quarter. Order intake in Asia declined in March in anticipation of negotiations during Shanghai Pulp week and amid growing uncertainties related to global trade, which have escalated since the beginning of April. Looking to the upper right side of the slide, the combination of lower volumes and lower invoicing prices resulted in a BRL4.3 billion in EBITDA, equivalent to 49% EBITDA margin.

儘管呈現這種積極趨勢，但主要在第四季度產生的訂單積壓的開票影響了我們本季的平均價格。由於預期上海紙漿週期間的談判以及自 4 月初以來全球貿易不確定性加劇，3 月份亞洲的訂單量有所下降。從幻燈片的右上方可以看出，較低的銷售量和較低的發票價格共同導致了 EBITDA 達到 43 億巴西雷亞爾，相當於 49% 的 EBITDA 利潤率。

Now looking forward, I would like to highlight the following points. The uncertainty generated by announcement of tariffs and its potential toll in global GDP and trade has impacted our customers sentiment pausing negotiations in China during the first weeks of April. Since customers are still struggling to forecast how tariffs can affect their production plans, either directly or indirectly both pulp buyers and sellers are on a price discovery mode as we speak.

展望未來，我想強調以下幾點。關稅公告產生的不確定性及其對全球 GDP 和貿易的潛在影響影響了我們的客戶情緒，導致 4 月頭幾週在中國暫停談判。由於客戶仍在努力預測關稅將如何影響他們的生產計劃，紙漿買家和賣家都直接或間接地處於價格發現模式。

The tariff war affected the Chinese local market during most of April, where our sources on the ground reported downstream channel destocking, which, together with such tariff-related uncertainties resulted in a lower paper production when compared to March. As the month evolved, and as whole prices soften across several grades in Asia, paper producers came back to the negotiation table resuming purchases only on the final days of the month.

關稅戰在四月份的大部分時間裡影響了中國本土市場，我們的實地消息來源報告下游渠道正在去庫存，再加上與關稅相關的不確定性，導致紙張產量與三月份相比有所下降。隨著月份的演變，以及亞洲多個等級紙張整體價格的走軟，紙張生產商直到月底才回到談判桌前恢復採購。

It is our belief that the Chinese market is pointing to a normalization in terms of purchase orders as we navigate into May. Despite the change in market sentiment in April, it is our belief that current prices are running at unsustainable levels as spot prices are already below the marginal cost of producers. Just released brand-new estimates by a well-known market consultancy, point out that the marginal producers cost has recently surpassed $600 per ton due mainly to appreciation of exchange rates in some regions, mainly Europe on the back of the tariff war.

我們相信，隨著五月的到來，中國市場的採購訂單將趨於正常化。儘管四月份市場情緒發生了變化，但我們認為，當前價格處於不可持續的水平，因為現貨價格已經低於生產商的邊際成本。一家知名市場顧問公司剛發布的全新估算指出，由於關稅戰導致部分地區（主要是歐洲）的匯率升值，生產商的邊際成本近期已超過每噸 600 美元。

Finally, we would like to reaffirm our commitment with our valued customer base as we navigate the challenges of the current macroeconomic environment. With our pulp inventories already normalized in Q1 '25 and with zero willingness to increase them, we are well positioned to execute our commercial strategy in the coming quarters, according to any prevailing market conditions ahead.

最後，在應對當前宏觀經濟環境挑戰的過程中，我們想重申我們對尊貴客戶的承諾。由於我們的紙漿庫存在 2025 年第一季已經恢復正常，並且沒有增加庫存的意願，因此我們已做好準備，根據未來的任何市場狀況，在未來幾個季度執行我們的商業策略。

With that said, I would now like to invite Aires to address the cash cost performance of the past quarter.

話雖如此，我現在想請艾利斯談談上個季度的現金成本表現。

Thank you. Moving to cash cost slides. We can see the cash production cost performance, excluding the impact of scaled down times, showed a temporary increase of 6% compared to fourth quarter 2024. This result was in line with the company's expectations.

謝謝。轉向現金成本幻燈片。我們可以看到，排除縮減時間的影響後，現金生產成本表現與 2024 年第四季相比暫時成長了 6%。這結果符合公司的預期。

As I mentioned during our last earnings call. Such increase was mainly driven by a lower contribution from our larger, more competitive and surplus energy provider mills, which are taking off for a scheduled maintenance during the period. Highlights here are lines one and two at [Teresaova] and Hibas mills. The negative impact of the lower contribution of the mills under maintenance can be seen across several components of the cash costs.

正如我在上次財報電話會議上提到的。這種成長主要是由於我們規模較大、競爭力較強且能源供應過剩的工廠的貢獻較低，這些工廠在此期間正在進行定期維護。這裡的亮點是 [Teresaova] 和 Hibas 工廠的一號線和二號線。處於維護狀態的工廠貢獻度降低的負面影響可以從現金成本的多個組成部分看出。

Starting with Wood, the cost increase this quarter was primarily due to our usual decision to temporarily expand the average harvesting ratios at mills with scheduled maintenance. This approach helps us avoid temporary demobilization of some service providers which would otherwise reduce efficiency of the operational cycle.

從木材開始，本季成本的增加主要是因為我們通常決定暫時擴大進行定期維護的工廠的平均採伐率。這種方法有助於我們避免暫時解散一些服務供應商，否則會降低營運週期的效率。

We also take advantage of its schedule on time to carry out additional maintenance activities at the mills, which is the main factor behind the increase in fixed costs this quarter. Additionally, the lower volume of energy exports due to the maintenance schedule also impacted the cash cost, as shown in the slide.

我們還利用其時間表按時在工廠進行額外的維護活動，這是本季固定成本增加的主要因素。此外，如幻燈片所示，由於維護計劃導致的能源出口量減少也影響了現金成本。

Lastly, I will note that some input costs were under pressure by higher price during the period, particularly for caustic soda and natural gas. When we compare to the first quarter 2004, the increase in cash cost is mainly due to the FX depreciation impacting the price of caustic soda, natural gas and chlorine dioxide.

最後，我要指出的是，在此期間，一些投入成本因價格上漲而面臨壓力，尤其是燒鹼和天然氣。與2004年第一季相比，現金成本的增加主要是由於外匯貶值影響了燒鹼、天然氣和二氧化氯的價格。

As for wood, the increase is primarily related to higher logistics costs, mainly to the transportation model and the production mix from our pulp mills. It is worth noting that in the first quarter of 2024, we didn't have any scheduled scale made downtimes.

就木材而言，價格上漲主要與物流成本上升有關，這主要與運輸模式和我們紙漿廠的生產組合有關。值得注意的是，在 2024 年第一季度，我們沒有任何計劃的大規模停機。

Looking ahead, we continue to expect a reduction in cash production cost ex downtimes over the coming quarters. At our exchange rate of 5.80, the average for 2024 is expected to reach the same levels seen in the fourth quarter 2024.

展望未來，我們預計未來幾季除停工外的現金生產成本將會降低。以我們的匯率 5.80 計算，預計 2024 年的平均匯率將達到 2024 年第四季的水平。

Now I invite Marcos to continue the presentation.

現在我請馬可斯繼續演講。

Thank you, Aires. Now on slide 7, I'll talk about the leverage and the balance sheet of Suzano in the first quarter of 2025. Starting with the net debt. We started the quarter with a net debt of $12.8 billion. We generated close to $500 million in free cash flow, and we spent both $200 million in growth CapEx, mainly in our projects to increase fluff capacity and also tissue capacity.

謝謝你，艾利斯。現在在第 7 張投影片上，我將討論 Suzano 在 2025 年第一季的槓桿率和資產負債表。從淨債務開始。本季初我們的淨債務為 128 億美元。我們產生了近 5 億美元的自由現金流，並花費了 2 億美元的成長資本支出，主要用於增加絨毛產能和紙巾產能的項目。

And we also made a very significant payment of interest on equity of nearly $400 million. And that's the reason why our net debt ticked up to $12.9 billion at the end of the quarter. Regarding our leverage, we also had a small uptick in our leverage from 2.9 times by the end of last year to 3 times net debt-to-EBITDA when measured in dollars by the end of the first quarter, explained, as I mentioned, by the small increase in our debt -- net debt during the quarter and also a small decline in our EBITDA for the last 12 months.

我們也支付了近 4 億美元的股權利息。這就是為什麼我們的淨債務在本季末上升至 129 億美元的原因。關於我們的槓桿率，我們的槓桿率也小幅上升，從去年年底的 2.9 倍上升到第一季末的 3 倍（以美元計算），正如我所提到的，這是因為我們的債務（本季淨債務）小幅增加，以及過去 12 個月我們的 EBITDA 略有下降。

As we remain close to the top of our leverage policy, we took a more cautious approach towards share buyback during the quarter. And I'll say that this reinforces our strong commitment to deleveraging Suzano's balance sheet. Regarding our amortization schedule, we maintain a very attractive and competitive cost of capital of 5% of our cost of debt and we increased our average maturity from 73 months to 76 months during the quarter.

由於我們的槓桿政策仍處於最高水平，因此我們在本季對股票回購採取了更加謹慎的態度。我想說的是，這加強了我們對降低 Suzano 資產負債表槓桿率的堅定承諾。關於我們的攤銷計劃，我們保持了非常有吸引力和競爭力的資本成本，即債務成本的 5%，並且我們在本季度將平均期限從 73 個月增加到 76 個月。

This was mainly obtained by a liability management operation, which we did during the quarter, raising $1.2 billion at a rate of SOFR plus 145 basis points. Just to compare business better than a similar transaction that we did one year ago in which we raised less than $1 billion, paying a rate of SOFR plus 175 basis points, and that was for a five year loan and this time we did for a six year loan.

這主要歸功於我們在本季開展的負債管理業務，以 SOFR 加 145 個基點的利率籌集了 12 億美元。只是為了更好地比較我們一年前進行的類似交易，當時我們籌集了不到 10 億美元，支付了 SOFR 加 175 個基點的利率，那是一筆五年期貸款，而這次我們做的是一筆六年期貸款。

Moving to the next slide. We took advantage of the market volatility that occurred during the quarter to improve our balance sheet profile. First, we did a couple of hedges, improving our current portfolio of hedges. As you can see in the chart, our average put increased from BRL5.36 to BRL5.44 per $1 and our Calls increased from BRL6.16 to BRL6.28. So we not only improve with the level of the currency that protects our balance sheet at BRL5.44, but we also enlarged the bank between the puts and the calls.

移至下一張投影片。我們利用本季發生的市場波動來改善我們的資產負債表狀況。首先，我們做了一些對沖，改善了我們目前的對沖組合。正如您在圖表中所看到的，我們的平均看跌期權從每 1 美元 5.36 巴西雷亞爾增加到 5.44 巴西雷亞爾，而我們的看漲期權從每 1 美元 6.16 巴西雷亞爾增加到 6.28 巴西雷亞爾。因此，我們不僅將保護我們資產負債表的貨幣水準提高到 5.44 巴西雷亞爾，而且還擴大了看跌期權和看漲期權之間的銀行規模。

Regarding our financial results, we had a positive financial result of BRL7.7 billion during the quarter, mainly explained by the BRL1.1 billion net financial expenses, similar to last quarter, but also a meaningful impact from the change in the FX during the quarter. Remember that the FX at the end of last year closed at BRL6.19 per dollar and at the end of the first quarter, it declined to BRL5.74. So we had a positive impact on the market-to-market of our debt in dollars, which means BRL5.7 billion positive financial result, and we also had a positive impact of BRL3.1 billion on the mark-to-market of derivatives. -- so now back to Beto for his final remarks.

關於我們的財務業績，本季我們取得了 77 億雷亞爾的正財務業績，主要原因是 11 億雷亞爾的淨財務支出，與上一季相似，但也受到了本季外匯變化的重大影響。請記住，去年年底外匯匯率收在 1 美元兌 6.19 巴西雷亞爾，而第一季末，匯率跌至 5.74 巴西雷亞爾。因此，我們對美元債務的市場對市場產生了積極影響，這意味著 57 億巴西雷亞爾的正財務業績，並且我們也對衍生品的市價產生了 31 億巴西雷亞爾的積極影響。 ——現在回到貝托，聽聽他的最後發言。

Thank you, Marco. So looking ahead, I would like to summarize what we look for in 2025 as following. Firstly, the strategic focus on deleveraging and strengthening competitiveness, as I mentioned before, as part of Aires speech, and the cash production cost will decline in the coming quarters.

謝謝你，馬可。展望未來，我想總結我們對 2025 年的期望。首先，正如我之前在艾瑞演講中提到的，戰略重點是去槓桿和增強競爭力，未來幾季現金生產成本將會下降。

So a good reference for 2025. It's the last quarter of 2024. In terms of cost, a free cash flow generation at any scenario. And the team at US is doing a tremendous job, so Suzano packaging operations. It's really on track to break even. I would like to add the final one, when we look ahead, it's considering the global macroeconomic turmoil, any investment from Suzano will, of course, require higher returns to be implemented. So that's what we are looking ahead for 2025. Thank you very much.

因此這對 2025 年來說是一個很好的參考。這是 2024 年的最後一個季度。就成本而言，在任何情況下都會產生自由現金流。美國的團隊做得非常出色，Suzano 的包裝業務也是如此。它確實有望實現收支平衡。最後我想補充一點，當我們展望未來時，考慮到全球宏觀經濟的動盪，Suzano 的任何投資當然都需要更高的回報才能實現。這就是我們對 2025 年的展望。非常感謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Mr. Rodolfo De Angele, JPMorgan.

Rodolfo De Angele 先生，摩根大通。

My two questions. My first one is on pulp prices. We are, of course, in a period of very high uncertainties. We are seeing resale prices coming down. So I just wanted to hear from Leo, if you can comment on how have been the talks with your clients? I know you mentioned the marginal costs already being bridged when you compare to prices. But just if you could give us a little bit more of color on exactly how the conversations are going. There's room for any moves at this point. That's my first one.

我的兩個問題。我的第一個問題是關於紙漿價格。當然，我們正處於一個高度不確定的時期。我們看到轉售價格正在下降。所以我只是想聽聽 Leo 的意見，您能否評論一下您與客戶的談判情況如何？我知道您提到，與價格相比，邊際成本已經被彌補了。但如果您能向我們詳細介紹對話的具體進展就好了。此時還有採取任何行動的空間。這是我的第一個。

And my second is for Beto. Beto, you added a bullet in your last slide, and I want to explore it a little bit. Of course, I'm talking about capital discipline. And here, I just wanted to hear a little bit more also in terms of how are you thinking about that when you think higher discount rates. Can you put also this in context with the other alternatives, which are taking care of your balance sheet and also dividends and buybacks. And that's it for me.

我的第二個禮物是給 Beto 的。貝托，你在上一張投影片中加入了一個項目符號，我想稍微探討一下。當然，我說的是資本紀律。在這裡，我只是想多聽聽您關於在考慮更高的折扣率時是如何考慮這個問題的。您能否將此與其他替代方案聯繫起來，這些替代方案可以照顧您的資產負債表以及股息和回購。對我來說就是這樣。

Rodolfo, this is Leo here. I'm going to start with your first question related to pulp prices. Despite our will as we were navigating the first quarter to implement a fourth price increase for April after the tariff war announcement and the market was resetted in such a way that customers uncertainty related in terms of what they would produce and what they would be vesting into each market and made all of them really leave the negotiation table in the beginning of the month.

羅道夫，這是利奧。我首先要回答您關於紙漿價格的第一個問題。儘管我們在第一季有意在關稅戰宣布後實施 4 月份第四次價格上調，但市場格局發生了變化，客戶對於他們將生產什麼以及他們將在每個市場投入什麼感到不確定，這導致他們在月初就全部退出了談判桌。

And this scenario in China lasted maybe up until the very end of the third week of April, only during the fourth week of April. After customers had a bit more clarity, not all clarity yet, but a bit more clarity. And obviously, based on their stock levels, the need also to replenish the system looking forward customers came back to the table. Our intent of price increases for April was not executed.

而中國的這種情況可能只持續到了四月第三週的末期，也就是四月第四週。當客戶對情況有了更多的了解之後，雖然還不是完全清楚，但還是清楚了一些。顯然，根據他們的庫存水平，他們還需要補充庫存，以期客戶再次光臨。我們四月漲價的意圖沒有實現。

As you probably know, we had a price decline last month our price, a good proxy of it is what most of you saw today published on Chinese peaks for hardwood levels. And based on that price point, we see customers now wanting or starting again to renegotiate. And as I mentioned, I believe that in May, things will normalize or get close to a normalized level.

您可能知道，上個月我們的價格有所下降，一個很好的代表就是今天大多數人看到的中國硬木價格高峰。基於這個價格點，我們發現客戶現在想要或開始重新協商。正如我所提到的，我相信到五月份，情況將會恢復正常或接近正常水平。

Still today, buyers and book sellers are on this price discovery mode, which I mentioned in my opening speech, there's not clarity yet of what is this price point needed for a full establishment of market confidence and dynamics. And as I mentioned to you, Hawkins Wright just released a new report, and that's the source we use for several years, and not only for this quarter related to the marginal cash cost of producers.

時至今日，買家和書商仍處於這種價格發現模式，正如我在開幕致詞中提到的那樣，目前尚不清楚完全建立市場信心和活力所需的價格點是多少。正如我向您提到的，霍金斯萊特剛剛發布了一份新報告，這是我們幾年來使用的資料來源，而不僅僅是本季度與生產商邊際現金成本相關的資料。

And the new report mainly impacted by the currency appreciation in Europe and it shows that the marginal cost of producers today in hardwood is actually $625 per ton. So based on what you can see comparing it to current picks, we're already -- this kind of producers today are burning cash as we speak. And if you consider resale prices in China, which are on the $500 barrier, then this is even more aggravated, right?

新報告主要受到歐洲貨幣升值的影響，報告顯示，目前硬木生產商的邊際成本實際上為每噸 625 美元。因此，根據您所看到的與當前選擇的比較，我們已經——如今這類生產商正在燒錢。如果你考慮到中國的轉售價格在 500 美元左右，那麼情況就更糟了，對嗎？

So that's why I really believe this is unsustainable as we speak and looking forward.

所以這就是為什麼我真的相信這種情況在我們談論和展望未來時是不可持續的。

Thank you, Leo. Thank you, Rodolf for the question. Let me cover your question maybe in four topics. The first one, as you know, the strategic for the company is still unchanged. So we still have the same direction in terms of capital allocation. We, of course, cannot go into the detail of any kind of opportunity that we have in the radar. But of course, considering the level of risk that we have in the current competitive environment today, we expect to have higher returns for any kind of opportunity that we might consider.

謝謝你，Leo。謝謝羅道夫提出的問題。讓我用四個主題來回答你的問題。第一個，如您所知，公司的策略沒有改變。所以我們在資本配置還是有相同的方向。當然，我們無法詳細闡述雷達中存在的任何機會。但當然，考慮到我們在當前競爭環境中面臨的風險水平，我們期望我們考慮的任何機會都能獲得更高的回報。

Maybe I should share some more details for you. And if we consider all the opportunities, all the potential alternatives that we have today in the radar, we can, and again, pulling all of them together I'm not saying that we're going to do all of them. It's really possibilities, alternatives, opportunities that we are analyzing. If we add up all of them, we are talking about something like $3 billion total speaking.

也許我應該與您分享更多細節。如果我們考慮到今天雷達上的所有機會和所有潛在替代方案，我們就可以，再說一次，把它們綜合起來，我並不是說我們會全部做到。我們真正在分析的是可能性、替代方案和機會。如果我們把所有這些加起來，總額大約是 30 億美元。

And the fact is that the global macroeconomic turmoil where the risk environment has increased it. The requirement for returns for any of this investment become even higher. And finally, I think -- it's very important to mention as well, since I'm giving more granularity in this discussion. It's that in any -- in this context and take into account the company's cash generation and let's put a period of time, which is -- that's considering this conversation until end of 2026.

事實是，全球宏觀經濟動盪，風險環境增加。任何此類投資的回報要求都變得更高。最後，我認為——這一點也非常重要，因為我將在本次討論中提供更詳細的資訊。無論如何 — — 在這種情況下，考慮到公司的現金產生情況，讓我們設定一個時間段，也就是 — — 考慮將這次對話持續到 2026 年底。

So the deleveraging trend is clear and we will still remain in a very comfortable level in any scenario. I'm talking about leverage, which will be in the lower range of our financial policy. So I think all those things that I think we should take into account when we talk about capital allocation. So I hope that was clear to the question, Rodolfo.

因此，去槓桿趨勢很明顯，在任何情況下我們仍將保持在非常舒適的水平。我談論的是槓桿率，它將處於我們財務政策的較低範圍內。所以我認為當我們談論資本配置時，我們應該考慮所有這些事情。所以我希望這個問題已經很清楚了，羅道夫。

And if you just wanted to complement with where do buybacks and shareholder return and also deleveraging kind of rank compared to potential new investments?

如果您只是想補充一下，與潛在的新投資相比，回購和股東回報以及去槓桿的排名如何？

Yes, buyback and dividends, as you know, is always our alternative as part of our capital allocation strategy. And if we do not find alternatives projects that it's not aligned with our strategy. It's not generating value for the shareholders in the long term and do not reach the level of returns that we are looking for buybacks with a higher level of returns is always an alternative.

是的，如您所知，回購和分紅始終是我們資本配置策略的替代方案。如果我們找不到替代項目，那就不符合我們的策略。從長遠來看，它不會為股東創造價值，也不會達到我們所期望的回報水平，因此，具有更高回報水平的回購始終是一種選擇。

Rafael Barcellos, Bradesco BBI.

拉斐爾·巴塞洛斯，布拉德斯科 BBI。

So my first question is about your pulp sales volumes. So well, I know that Suzano was running with pulp inventories below normal levels in recent quarters. But it could -- could you please give us a sense of the inventory buildup made during the first Q. Other than that, it would be very helpful if you could discuss a bit more about your volumes in May sorry, in April and May if possible?

我的第一個問題是關於你們的紙漿銷售量。我知道，Suzano 最近幾季的紙漿庫存低於正常水平。但是它可以 - 您能否讓我們了解第一季庫存累積的情況。除此之外，如果您可以進一步討論一下 5 月份的銷量，對不起，如果可能的話，4 月份和 5 月份的銷量，那將非常有幫助？

And ultimately, I mean, what we can expect in terms of sales volumes for 2025. Okay. And my second question is about the Hibas mill. So after the completion of the ramp-up and the first maintenance downtime, Beto, I would really appreciate your evaluation of the new operational performance. And other than that, I mean if you could discuss whether there's any debottlenecking opportunity here or even like a brownfield project being analyzed.

最後，我的意思是，我們可以對 2025 年的銷售量做出哪些預期。好的。我的第二個問題是關於 Hibas 工廠的。因此，在完成提升和第一次維護停機後，Beto，我非常感謝您對新營運績效的評估。除此之外，我的意思是，您是否可以討論這裡是否存在任何消除瓶頸的機會，或者甚至像正在分析的棕地專案。

Rafael, good morning. This is Leo here. Thanks for your question. So you're correct, right? So we -- during fourth quarter, you might remember what was the upside versus estimations that we were able to perform. But all that brought us at all which we had to recover now in first quarter.

拉斐爾，早安。我是 Leo。謝謝你的提問。所以你是對的，對嗎？因此，在第四季度，您可能還記得我們能夠實現的相對於預期的優勢是什麼。但所有這些都給我們帶來了困難，我們必須在第一季恢復元氣。

So just by comparing our numbers to expectations by then, you'll see that this is roughly on the 200,000-ish area in terms of stock rebuild which is equivalent to Cerrado's inventories looking at it on a different perspective.

因此，只要將我們的數字與當時的預期進行比較，您就會發現，就庫存重建而言，這大約在 200,000 左右，這相當於從不同角度來看 Cerrado 的庫存。

Rafael, just regarding the two questions that you made one related to Hibas and the other one about any alternative to be considered in terms of expansion of food production. The first one is regarding the performance of Hibas, we are really delivering all the metrics that we planned to do it. So it's really doing very well in terms of cost, in terms of stability.

拉斐爾，關於您提出的兩個問題，一個與 Hibas 有關，另一個與擴大糧食生產方面可以考慮的任何替代方案有關。第一個是關於 Hibas 的性能，我們確實實現了我們計劃實現的所有指標。因此，就成本和穩定性而言，它確實表現得非常好。

So we were able to do the first maintenance downtime during the first quarter, so far so good. So the team is really very proud about what we are doing with this facility. Regarding any brownfield, we are not considering the short-term investments on pulp production. But when we consider the impact of return and ROIC in the long term, of course, the level of attractiveness of brownfields is usually higher than greenfield when we talk about expanding pulp capacity, okay?

因此，我們能夠在第一季進行第一次維護停機，到目前為止一切順利。因此，團隊對於我們利用這個設施所做的事情感到非常自豪。對於任何棕地，我們不會考慮對紙漿生產的短期投資。但是，當我們考慮長期回報和投資資本回報率的影響時，當然，當我們談論擴大紙漿產能時，棕地的吸引力通常高於綠地，好嗎？

Just as a quick follow-up on the sales volumes question, Leo. Could you please provide or discuss your sales volumes in April and maybe in May and ultimately, what we can expect for sales volumes in 2025 or in the coming quarters?

作為對銷售量問題的快速跟進，Leo。您能否提供或討論一下您 4 月份和 5 月份的銷售量，以及我們對 2025 年或未來幾季的銷售量有何預期？

Obviously, this is quite sensitive to our commercial strategy. But as I have mentioned that we have finalized the rebuilding of our inventories to normalized levels. and that we are going to be close to customers and panic to customers and understanding how to support them whatever this scenario is in terms of generating and supporting them in their sales needs. With the addition of Cerrado you can consequently conclude that our sales volumes will be higher than we had a year ago or every quarter of the year -- of the past years, corresponding quarters of the past year.

顯然，這對我們的商業策略來說相當敏感。但正如我所提到的，我們已經完成了將庫存重建到正常水平的工作。我們將貼近客戶，了解客戶的需求，並了解如何在任何情況下為他們提供支持，以滿足他們的銷售需求。隨著 Cerrado 的加入，您可以得出結論，我們的銷售量將高於一年前或每年每個季度的銷售量——過去幾年、去年相應季度的銷售量。

Daniel Sasson, Itau BBA.

Daniel Sasson，伊塔烏 BBA。

First, Beto thank you for the details you've shared about the capital allocation alternatives that you have or at least about the $3 billion considering everything that you have that you are analyzing or that you have in your radar screen. My follow-up on that regard would be, do you think that for instance, with $3 billion in M&A transactions that would be good enough for you to reach a level of revenue diversification that you would be happy with?

首先，Beto，感謝您分享有關資本配置替代方案的詳細信息，或者至少考慮到您正在分析的或您雷達屏幕上顯示的所有信息，有關 30 億美元的信息。我對此的後續問題是，您是否認為，例如，30 億美元的併購交易足以讓您達到滿意的收入多元化水準？

So that would be something that we could think about kind of a cap or a target for your M&A transactions? Or is that the sum of all the opportunities you have and then you might not even reach that over the next say, 12, 18 months. Just so we can understand how big potential capital allocation could be? Or if you think that these $3 billion would be already very interesting from a revenue diversification point of view?

那麼，我們可以將其視為您的併購交易的上限或目標嗎？或者這是您擁有的所有機會的總和，然後您可能甚至無法在接下來的 12 或 18 個月內實現這一目標。這樣我們就能了解潛在的資本配置有多大嗎？或者您認為從收入多樣化的角度來看這 30 億美元已經非常有趣了？

And my second question, maybe we explored a bit the somewhat challenging momentum for demand, especially from China. Can we try to change gears here and think about what -- where we could or the market could be wrong in regards to pulp prices or when we could see a change in momentum?

我的第二個問題是，也許我們探討了一下需求方面頗具挑戰性的需求勢頭，尤其是來自中國的需求。我們是否可以嘗試在這裡改變想法並思考一下——在紙漿價格方面我們或市場可能出現什麼錯誤，或者我們何時會看到勢頭的變化？

Do you think, for instance, that maybe the more constrained logistics if demand resumes more quickly than expected because of the somewhat muted volumes in April and maybe May that could cause a glut in logistics, in maritime freight, for instance, and that could cause a panic buying sentiment? Or where do you think that we could be wrong in regards to this bad mood, let's put it this way, with pulp prices going into the second quarter and the third quarter of this year?

例如，您是否認為，如果由於 4 月份和 5 月份的貨運量略有下降而導致需求恢復速度快於預期，那麼物流可能會受到更多限制，從而導致物流、海運等行業的過剩，並引發恐慌性購買情緒？或者您認為，關於這種不良情緒，我們可能在哪些方面判斷錯誤，比如說，今年第二季和第三季的紙漿價格如何？

Daniel, let me start here, and then I will hand over to Leo. Daniel, I think a very simple way to answer your question is the following. We do not have a target of diversification. What do we have? It's a target of value creation. So this is what we will pursue in any capital allocation decision. So that's why I mentioned our -- so that's why I mentioned that we are really trying to analyze opportunities that can have even higher returns. So we are really -- we'll consider alternatives that in the long term, we will increase our returns for our shareholders.

丹尼爾，讓我從這裡開始，然後我會交給利奧。丹尼爾，我認為回答你的問題的一個非常簡單的方法如下。我們沒有多元化的目標。我們有什麼？這是價值創造的目標。因此，這就是我們在任何資本配置決策中追求的目標。這就是我提到我們的原因——這就是我提到我們確實在嘗試分析能夠帶來更高回報的機會的原因。因此，我們確實會考慮其他選擇，以便從長遠來看增加股東的回報。

So sorry about being very clear about that, but doesn't make any sense having a target of diversification. So the driver here, it's really generating value. So I think this is the way that we should consider in this and don't forget that competitiveness, it's really our main priority at this time. So as I mentioned in the introduction, our focus on keep reducing our cash costs, our SG&A, CapEx per ton, I would say that at this moment, is our first priority. So let me hand over to Leo.

很抱歉我對此說得這麼清楚，但多元化的目標是沒有意義的。因此，這裡的驅動因素確實在創造價值。所以我認為這是我們應該考慮的方式，不要忘記競爭力，這確實是我們目前的首要任務。正如我在介紹中提到的那樣，我們的重點是繼續降低現金成本、銷售、一般和行政費用、每噸資本支出，我想說，目前這是我們的首要任務。那麼讓我把話筒交給 Leo。

Thank you, Beto. Daniel, so to answer your question, what is the glass half full that we see ahead of us coming and navigating into this latest part of the year. First, as I mentioned, prices today already break the breakeven point of higher cash cost producers. So especially being them based in Europe, as we have seen in several, several previous cycles.

謝謝你，貝托。丹尼爾，回答你的問題，我們對今年最後階段的前景有何看法？首先，正如我所提到的，今天的價格已經突破了高現金成本生產商的損益平衡點。尤其是他們的總部設在歐洲，正如我們在之前的幾個週期中所看到的。

They are quick to react and quick to perform commercial downtimes in moments like this. So there can be a sudden disruption on the supply side of the equation. As you mentioned, constraints in logistics is also a topic that we are closely following not only because of unexpected new patterns of demands in route A to route B, but also because of all this news in terms of US tolls in China-based or China constructed vessels, which is highly impacting competitors who use containers as their main logistics method.

在這種時候，他們反應迅速，並迅速執行商業停機。因此，供應方可能會突然中斷。正如您所提到的，物流方面的限制也是我們密切關注的一個話題，不僅因為 A 路線到 B 路線的需求出現了意想不到的新模式，還因為有關美國對中國製造或中國建造的船隻徵收通行費的所有這些消息，這對使用集裝箱作為主要物流方式的競爭對手產生了重大影響。

So all of that has to be seen as well and can create a huge opportunity for Suzano due to our very differentiated logistics scheme and our ability to move our vessels much more quicker than our peers. Third, an upside, obviously, is a revision of the tariffs, right? Because if tariffs are revised down, mainly in terms of US-China trade, this can generate a burst or re-establishment of our customer sentiment and therefore an uptick in demand much higher than we can cope with under our current pulp planning to that region.

因此，所有這些都必須被看到，並且可以為 Suzano 創造巨大的機會，因為我們擁有非常差異化的物流方案，並且我們能夠比同行更快地移動我們的船隻。第三，顯然的一個好處是修改關稅，對嗎？因為如果關稅下調，主要是在中美貿易方面，這可能會激發或重建我們的客戶情緒，從而導致需求增長遠高於我們目前在該地區紙漿規劃下所能應對的水平。

And last but not least, as we also see in cycles like this one, is the demand coming from integrated Chinese pulp to paper producers. My expectation is that taking into consideration the prices that we see of the local Chinese pulp producer selling in their market, which might be a good proxy in terms of what we see in Chinese resale prices.

最後但同樣重要的一點是，正如我們在這樣的周期中所看到的，需求來自中國綜合紙漿和紙張生產商。我的期望是，考慮到我們看到的中國本土紙漿生產商在其市場上銷售的價格，這可能是我們所看到的中國轉售價格的一個很好的代表。

Several producers today integrated pulp and paper producers in China, in my view, already are below breakeven. So it is expected that quickly these guys will come to the market as pulp buyers generating an unforecasted swing in demand as well.

我認為，目前中國有幾家綜合紙漿和造紙生產商的獲利能力已經低於損益平衡點。因此，預計這些人很快就會以紙漿買家的身份進入市場，引發不可預測的需求波動。

So this is a list of all the positive possible momentum that we have ahead of us.

這是一份我們可能面臨的所有正面勢頭的清單。

Caio Greiner, UBS.

瑞銀的 Caio Greiner。

My first question, circling back to the internationalization theme. I wanted to ask you specifically about your capital allocation and potential acquisitions in the US. So how did the recent developments regarding US trade policy change Suzano's intention to acquire assets in the US markets.

我的第一個問題，回到國際化主題。我想具體詢問一下您在美國的資本配置和潛在收購情況。那麼，美國貿易政策的最新發展如何改變了蘇札諾在美國市場收購資產的意圖。

Shorter term, I mean, would that -- would the company be seeing this with the lenses of an elevated uncertainty and taking more of a wait-and-see approach to better understand what the trade policy is going to look like before making a move? Or has the strategy not changed at all? And it could be even seen as an opportunity to acquire assets at lower prices.

短期來看，我的意思是，公司是否會以高度不確定性的眼光看待這個問題，並採取更多的觀望態度，以便在採取行動之前更好地了解貿易政策將會是什麼樣子？或者說策略根本沒有改變？這甚至可以被視為以較低價格收購資產的機會。

My second question, maybe too Leo. I know that you mentioned that we're seeing industry cash cost inflation, but I mean, we're seeing a deflationary shock, especially considering oil prices down significantly. And I just wanted to understand a little bit more how do you see this impact to the industry cash cost level? I mean, what -- do think that was considered in the consultant framework to increase their marginal costs for high-cost producers? Or is that -- I mean, is that not really consider -- can you talk a little bit more about the moving parts of this recent revision?

我的第二個問題，也許Leo 也是。我知道您提到我們看到了行業現金成本通膨，但我的意思是，我們正在經歷通貨緊縮衝擊，特別是考慮到油價大幅下跌。我只是想進一步了解一下，您如何看待這對行業現金成本水準的影響？我的意思是，您認為顧問框架中考慮了什麼來增加高成本生產商的邊際成本？或者說 — — 我的意思是，這不是真正考慮過的 — — 您能否再多談一下這次最新修訂的活動部分？

Okay. Caio, we are going to change the orders here. I'm going to start with your second question, okay? So yes, it was also considered by Hawkins Wright, but the main effect that is bringing the cash cost from the mid-500s up and over $600 is the FX in terms of the Swedish krona and euro in the region, impacting all of their cost structure. So in that terms, where we see a plus 10% variation in terms of currency.

好的。Caio，我們要更改這裡的訂單。我先回答你的第二個問題，好嗎？是的，霍金斯賴特也考慮過這個問題，但導致現金成本從 500 美元左右上漲至 600 美元以上的主要因素是該地區以瑞典克朗和歐元計算的外匯，這影響了他們的所有成本結構。因此，從這個角度來看，我們看到貨幣方面的變化增加了 10%。

That's the main driver for this revision in terms of upward trends, in terms of marginal cash cost producers. It's important to say that it's not only Europe, right? The marginal cash cost producers in our view today, sharing all this analysis that Hawkins Wright has published is based in Europe. Some other agent markets outside China, like Japan and South Korea, for example. But it is in Europe where we see a quicker adjustments in terms of production rates, commercial downtimes when markets like this are getting closer and closer to inversion or to inflection points.

就邊際現金成本生產者而言，這是上升趨勢方面此次修訂的主要驅動力。重要的是，這不僅僅是歐洲，對吧？我們認為，今天邊際現金成本生產商，分享霍金斯賴特發表的所有分析，都位於歐洲。一些中國以外的其他代理商市場，如日本、韓國等。但在歐洲，我們看到生產力、商業停工時間的調整速度更快，而像這樣的市場正越來越接近反轉或轉折點。

Caio, thank you for your question. Regarding capital allocation in US, I think on the strategy point of view, we do not have any change at this moment. Of course, we are analyzing very carefully the market locally. And I think something to monitor very -- on the very -- on the high level of detail, it's any impact on demand. So this is something that we will keep analyzing to see if the uncertainty and the feelings that we have locally in the local economy can impact demand in our sector, but generally speaking, if we consider the strategy in the mid, long term at this time, it's still unchanged.

Caio，謝謝你的提問。關於美國的資本配置，我認為從戰略角度來看，我們目前沒有任何改變。當然，我們正在非常仔細地分析當地市場。我認為需要非常詳細地監控某些事情，看看它是否對需求產生影響。因此，我們會繼續分析這個問題，看看當地經濟的不確定性和感受是否會影響我們行業的需求，但總的來說，如果我們考慮此時的中長期策略，它仍然沒有改變。

Caio Ribeiro, Bank of America.

卡約·裡貝羅，美國銀行。

So first off, in past years, Suzano has announced production cuts during down cycles for pulp. So I wanted to ask you if, under the current environment, you see that decision once again making sense. And if yes, which variables you're paying close attention to in order to formalize that decision. And it would also be interesting to hear from you what, if anything, is fundamentally different in terms of inventories held by customers or producers profitability level of paper makers and your competitors, particularly on the softwood side or that cost support.

首先，在過去幾年中，Suzano 曾宣佈在紙漿低迷時期減產。所以我想問您，在當前環境下，您是否認為該決定再次有意義。如果是，為了正式做出決定，您會密切注意哪些變數。另外，我也非常想聽聽您的看法，在客戶或生產商持有的庫存方面，造紙商和競爭對手的盈利水平，特別是在軟木方面或成本支持方面，有什麼根本區別。

I know you already alluded to it increasing, but if you could translate what's different between this down cycle and previous down cycles, that would be very, very helpful. And then secondly, as you assess the M&A opportunities, right? I know that you'll be focused on seeking opportunities that offer attractive returns. But on our numbers, your stock trades this year at around 5.5 times EBITDA and offers a 10% to 11% free cash flow yield. And any M&A, I believe, has to be analyzed on a comparative basis to purchasing your own stock, right? So do you see opportunities out there that exceed the returns that your own stock offers in terms of its discounted valuation.

我知道您已經提到它會增加，但如果您可以解釋這個下行週期與之前的下行週期之間的不同之處，那將非常非常有幫助。其次，您評估併購機會，對嗎？我知道您會專注於尋找能夠帶來豐厚回報的機會。但根據我們的數據，貴公司股票今年的交易價格約為 EBITDA 的 5.5 倍，並提供 10% 至 11% 的自由現金流收益率。我認為，任何併購都必須在與購買自己的股票進行比較的基礎上進行分析，對嗎？那麼，您是否看到了一些機會，這些機會的回報超過了您自己的股票以折現估值所提供的回報。

Caio, Marcos here talking about the potential production cuts question that you mentioned. We're always analyzing here our cash cost, we don't analyze our cash cost as an average, we analyze on an event-driven basis. So we analyzed the most important metric that we're looking at here is the variable cost than the marginal variable costs that we have in each of our mills.

Caio，Marcos 在這裡談論您提到的潛在減產問題。我們總是在這裡分析我們的現金成本，我們不是以平均值來分析我們的現金成本，而是以事件驅動為基礎來分析。因此，我們分析了這裡要考慮的最重要的指標，即可變成本，而不是我們每個工廠的邊際變動成本。

So we will be considering at the marginal cost of wood and most likely the most expensive one will be the wood that we buy from third party. We would also analyze the wood that is farther away from our mills, which impacts logistics, we would also impact -- would also analyze the impact that this will -- the production cut would have in our energy cost and our energy balance of our mills as well.

因此，我們將考慮木材的邊際成本，最昂貴的木材很可能是我們從第三方購買的木材。我們也會分析距離我們工廠較遠的木材，這會影響物流，我們也會分析減產對我們的能源成本和工廠能源平衡的影響。

So this is part of our day-to-day analysis. Of course, in the period where prices become more -- the price environment becomes more challenging. This analysis become more frequent and more intense here at the company. And we are, at this moment, discussing a lot about that as well.

這是我們日常分析的一部分。當然，在價格上漲的時期——價格環境變得更具挑戰性。在公司裡，這種分析變得越來越頻繁，越來越激烈。目前我們也正在對此進行大量討論。

Caio, this is Leo here. I'm going to jump in to answer your question in terms of what's different on the competitor side. I think the main focus that I would like to bring to answer this question is pointing to softwood producers because if this is already trending to be a tough cycle for hardwood producers are as I explained, I would say that it's even tougher for those who are producing softwood today. Futures in China for softwood are on the low $600 level, even having reached that level a few days ago, now a bit back up.

Caio，我是 Leo。我將立即回答您的問題，以了解競爭對手有何不同。我認為回答這個問題時我想主要關注的是軟木生產商，因為如果正如我所解釋的那樣，這對硬木生產商來說已經是一個艱難的周期，我想說，對於今天生產軟木的人來說，情況會更加艱難。中國軟木期貨價格目前處於 600 美元的低位，儘管幾天前曾達到該水平，但現在略有回升。

And this obviously is completely unsustainable when you think about the softwood cost structure globally. So we expect that these commercial adjustments or commercial downtimes will be extremely accelerated when it comes to softwood producers globally, which opens to us a huge opportunity, again, in terms of fiber to fiber and again, using softwood as a substitution for all of these downtimes or all of these volumes.

如果你考慮一下全球軟木成本結構，這顯然是完全不可持續的。因此，我們預計，對於全球軟木生產商而言，這些商業調整或商業停工時間將會大大加快，這為我們帶來了巨大的機遇，再次，在纖維對纖維方面，再次，使用軟木作為所有這些停工時間或所有這些產量的替代品。

Caio, regarding your question on the buybacks and the returns on the buybacks, we see our share price depressed at this point, most likely because of the cycle that we're leaving and also the uncertainties on the market. Of course, we believe that at these levels, returns of our buybacks are quite attractive. But as I mentioned in the beginning, we are also looking at our leverage as a boundary here for what we do in terms of capital allocation. As we reach and as we get closer to the maximum range of net leverage of 3 times, we should have a more cautious approach on capital allocation, which includes the buyback.

Caio，關於您提出的回購和回購回報的問題，我們看到我們的股價目前處於低迷狀態，很可能是因為我們正在經歷的周期以及市場的不確定性。當然，我們相信，在這樣的水平上，我們的回購回報是相當有吸引力的。但正如我在一開始提到的，我們也將槓桿率視為資本配置的界線。當我們達到並接近3倍淨槓桿的最大範圍時，我們應該對資本配置採取更謹慎的態度，其中包括回購。

Marcio Farid, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的馬西奧法里德 (Marcio Farid)。

A couple of points on my side. Maybe, Leo, if you can follow up on the cash cost curve side because I think it's to our investors discussions are going to be if you see some price accommodation, my understand is that the $600 delivered to China and some of the producers in Japan, Europe, North America, they basically don't start to China, right?

我有幾點看法。也許，Leo，如果你可以跟進現金成本曲線方面的情況，因為我認為這是對我們的投資者的討論，如果你看到一些價格調整，我的理解是，運往中國的 600 美元和一些日本、歐洲、北美的生產商基本上不會開始進軍中國，對吧？

So they save another $50 at least in terms of freight because they sell mostly local. And historically, China has been the one that has be more sensitive to prices as well. And I understand is that China production cost today is in the low 400s, which is lower than the past cycle. So just trying to understand, I mean, the level of confidence in terms of production adjustments outside of China for this cycle and similar to what Caio ask them where -- when and how would Suzano react to a potential production slowdown.

因此，由於他們主要銷售本地產品，因此在運費方面他們至少節省了 50 美元。從歷史上看，中國對價格也更為敏感。據我了解，目前中國的生產成本在 400 美元出頭，低於上一個週期。所以，我只是想了解，對於這一週期中國以外地區的生產調整的信心水平，以及類似於 Caio 詢問他們的問題，Suzano 將在何時以及如何應對潛在的生產放緩。

Because you have another at least 500,000 tons extra to sell this quarter versus last quarter in a more challenging scenario. So just trying to understand how you're going to be able to place these volumes in the market or there's going to be some production adjustments in the short term or it's longer dated.

因為在更具挑戰性的情況下，本季與上一季相比，您至少還有 50 萬噸額外銷售。因此，只是想了解如何將這些產量投放到市場上，或在短期內或長期內進行一些生產調整。

And secondly, on the paper side, Fabio, I think a good job on the sequential improvements in terms of profitability. Trying to understand next step where and what else is needed to get to breakeven? And what's the outlook for the US, especially paper packaging operations.

其次，從紙面數據來看，Fabio，我認為我們在盈利能力方面取得了連續的改善，做得很好。試著了解下一步在哪裡以及還需要什麼才能達到收支平衡？美國的前景如何，尤其是紙質包裝業務。

Marcio, Lee here. Thanks for your question. You are -- I share your vision, but let me try to point out how we analyze this. First of all, the marginal cost of producers, as I mentioned today is based on a group of producers in Europe, mainly affected by the FX on the back of the tariff 4, also in South Korea and Japan. Traditionally and historically, we see that South Korean and Japan and Japanese producers are less reactive in moments like this in terms of production curtailments and Europeans are more reactive.

馬西奧，我是李。謝謝你的提問。你是——我同意你的觀點，但請讓我試著指出我們如何分析這一點。首先，正如我今天提到的，生產者的邊際成本是基於歐洲的一群生產者，他們主要受到4號關稅帶來的外匯影響，韓國和日本也受到影響。從傳統和歷史來看，我們看到韓國、日本和日本生產商在這種減產時刻的反應較弱，而歐洲則反應較強。

So that's why I believe, personally, that these adjustments might come more towards Europe than to the other Asian countries. You are correct. This cash cost curve is based on a CIF China port analysis. Most of them -- most of European, Japanese or South Korean sell in their local market. But as a commodity, through time, all markets follow whatever is going on in China.

因此，我個人認為，這些調整可能更多地針對歐洲，而不是其他亞洲國家。你是對的。此現金成本曲線是基於 CIF 中國港口分析。其中大多數—大多數歐洲、日本或韓國產品都在當地市場銷售。但作為一種商品，隨著時間的推移，所有市場都會關注中國發生的一切。

Now markets are not completely separated, especially when you have more logistics more available as we do have today. So obviously, we will see if this trend continues in China, it is my expectation that we're going to see spot deals in Europe. Markets surrounding Europe like Middle East, Turkey or other Northern African markets reacting quick and matching or searching to match China peak levels.

現在市場並沒有完全分離，特別是當我們擁有像今天這樣更方便的物流時。因此，顯然，我們將觀察這種趨勢是否在中國繼續下去，我預計我們將在歐洲看到現貨交易。歐洲週邊市場，如中東、土耳其或其他北非市場，反應迅速，與中國峰值水準相符或尋求匹配。

And in this case, this is a key market for Europeans. There will be a big impact in that sense. In terms of China, I differ a bit in terms of how you position yourself, it is our view that yes, the Chinese pulp producers are more competitive in the cycle due to the availability of cheaper wood, but it is our view that this marginal cost of producers range from the mid-400s to, I would say, a little bit over at $500 or let's put it this way, $500.

在這種情況下，這對歐洲人來說是一個關鍵市場。從這個意義上來說，這將會產生很大的影響。就中國而言，我對您的定位有些不同意見，我們的觀點是，是的，由於木材價格更便宜，中國紙漿生產商在周期中更具競爭力，但我們認為生產商的邊際成本範圍從 400 美元左右到 500 美元左右，或者這麼說吧，500 美元。

But also, if we include bumble players here, then we have a bit over $500 in that account. And regardless of who is right or who is wrong, if you compare to the existing resale prices, it's unsustainable either way, right? So if it's mid-400s, high-400s or a bit lower-400s, it's still cash destructive what we're seeing on this resale or the local industry selling their pulp in China.

但是，如果我們把 Bumble 玩家也算進去的話，我們的帳號裡就有 500 多美元了。不管誰對誰錯，如果與現有的轉售價格相比，無論如何都是不可持續的，對嗎？因此，如果價格在 400 多美元、400 多美元或略低於 400 美元，那麼我們在轉售或在中國銷售紙漿的當地行業中看到的現金損失仍然很大。

You asked a question about when will Suzano react. Let me put it this way. Commercially, if Marcos allow I will sell, we will sell all the volume that we produce, that Aires produce, no matter what. We have reestablished our inventory levels -- so whatever is available for us to sell, we will sell.

您問的是 Suzano 什麼時候會做出反應。讓我這樣說吧。從商業角度來說，如果馬可斯允許，我會出售，我們會出售我們生產的所有產品，艾利斯生產的所有產品，無論什麼。我們已經重新建立了庫存水準——因此，只要有我們可以出售的商品，我們就會出售。

Marcio, let me take your second question here. Thank you, It's Fabio here. We are very happy with the progress that we have had so far during the first several months of our US operations. as you have seen in the slide that we have presented. And we have three main drivers that we're still looking at in order to improve the results moving forward. The first one is cost -- raw material costs, fixed costs, we still have some room for improvements moving forward.

馬西奧，讓我來回答你的第二個問題。謝謝，我是 Fabio。我們對美國業務開展頭幾個月以來所取得的進展感到非常高興。正如您在我們展示的幻燈片中看到的。我們仍在關註三個主要驅動因素，以改善未來的績效。第一個是成本──原料成本、固定成本，我們仍有一些改進的空間。

The second one is it's about prices. We had a 15% price increase in the first quarter versus our fourth quarter and we have already negotiated a second round of price increases with our contractual customers that will hit in the second half of the year. From the beginning of the second semester. So that's already negotiated and that will help us in the second half of the year.

第二個是關於價格。與第四季度相比，我們第一季的價格上漲了 15%，我們已經與合約客戶協商了第二輪價格上漲，將於今年下半年開始。從第二學期開始。所以這已經談判好了，這將對我們下半年的工作有所幫助。

And the third one is operational stability. This is probably the main effort that we have here. It's an old mill and we're bringing all the Suzano expertise with the current expertise that we have with the people at the mill in order to improve its operations, lowering consumption, and improving cash cost.

第三是營運穩定性。這可能是我們在這裡所做的主要努力。這是一家舊工廠，我們將 Suzano 的所有專業知識與工廠員工現有的專業知識結合起來，以改善工廠的營運、降低消耗並提高現金成本。

So these are the three main drivers that we have that will help us in the second half of the year. Second quarter results will be impacted by the annual maintenance that we had in April was on schedule was a little bit under budget, but it will impact our second quarter results, but we are very optimistic about the second half of the year breakeven in EBITDA during that period.

因此，這些是我們下半年能夠提供幫助的三個主要驅動因素。第二季的業績將受到我們四月按計畫進行的年度維護的影響，雖然維護成本略低於預算，但這會影響我們第二季的業績，但我們對下半年 EBITDA 的損益平衡非常樂觀。

Eugenia Cavalheiro, Morgan Stanley.

尤金妮亞·卡瓦列羅，摩根士丹利。

Two of them actually. And first, maybe asking on what Beto said in his initial remarks related to the higher return required for investments given the uncertainty. Would it be possible to give us more clarity on that and maybe a number of what you wish to see as a return to be able to proceed with an investment?

其實有兩個。首先，也許想問貝託在最初的評論中所說的，鑑於不確定性，投資需要更高的回報。您能否更清楚地解釋一下這一點，以及您希望看到的回報，以便能夠繼續投資？

And then the second one, if we think about the $3 billion opportunity that you mentioned and taking into consideration the company's strategy of deleveraging, but also taking into account the level of free cash flow generation expected for the next couple of years. I wanted to understand if management would feel comfortable with a dividend policy related to the free cash flow generation.

然後第二個問題，如果我們考慮您提到的 30 億美元的機會，並考慮到公司的去槓桿戰略，同時也考慮到未來幾年預期的自由現金流產生水平。我想了解管理階層是否願意接受與自由現金流產生相關的股利政策。

Thank you, Eugenia. Let me start for the end. Of course, when we talk about deleveraging, considering capital allocation, we are not considering any change in our dividend policy. So this is part of the calculation. Regarding your question about the level of returns, it's something that it's difficult to share. It will depend of the deal.

謝謝你，尤金妮亞。讓我從頭到尾講一遍。當然，當我們談論去槓桿，考慮資本配置時，我們並沒有考慮改變我們的股利政策。所以這是計算的一部分。至於你問的回報水平，這是一個很難分享的問題。這取決於交易情況。

But what I can say to you is this is that if you have a different level of risk in the environment, the requirement for returns has to change, must change. We see capital allocation and risk management working together. So we must always analyze both things at the same time.

但我可以告訴你的是，如果環境中的風險程度不同，那麼回報的要求就必須改變，必須改變。我們看到資本配置和風險管理協同發揮作用。因此我們必須始終同時分析這兩件事。

The exactly number in terms of return, although higher than we used to consider. It's something that we cannot share this time. And so I think it was the two questions that you made, Eugenia. Maybe Marcos you can complement?

就回報而言，這個數字確實比我們過去考慮的要高。這是我們這次無法分享的事。所以我認為這是你提出的兩個問題，尤金妮亞。也許你可以補充一下馬科斯？

Yes. Just complementing, Eugenia, we can -- and we have been doing that in the past as we generated more cash we were able to deliver an extraordinary dividend and also we were able to make more buyback more active in the past years. So even though we don't have a formal policy we have been following kind of what you consider there as we generated more cash, we were able to provide more returns to our shareholders.

是的。尤金妮亞，我只是補充一下，我們可以——而且我們過去也一直在這樣做，因為我們產生了更多的現金，所以我們能夠提供特別的股息，而且在過去幾年裡，我們也能夠更積極地進行更多回購。因此，儘管我們沒有正式的政策，但我們一直在遵循您所認為的政策，因為我們產生了更多的現金，所以我們能夠為股東提供更多的回報。

We would like to hand the floor back to Mr. Beto Abreu for his final remarks.

我們想把發言權交還給貝托·阿布雷烏先生，請他做最後的發言。

So firstly, thank you very much for all of you for attending our 2025, first quarter call. Thank you for the questions. Also, if there are any further clarification, our IR team is always available. So thank you very much for all of you.

首先，非常感謝大家參加我們的 2025 年第一季電話會議。謝謝您的提問。此外，如果有任何進一步的說明，我們的 IR 團隊隨時可以為您提供協助。非常感謝大家。

The Suzano S.A. first quarter of 2025 conference call is concluded. The Investor Relation department is available to answer any further questions you may have. Thank you, and have a good day.

Suzano S.A. 2025年第一季電話會議結束。投資者關係部門可以解答您的任何其他問題。謝謝，祝您有美好的一天。