Suzano SA (SUZ) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for holding and welcome to Suzano's conference call to discuss the results for the fourth quarter of 2024. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的到來，歡迎參加 Suzano 的電話會議，討論 2024 年第四季的業績。（操作員指令）

Before proceeding, please be aware that any forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs and assumptions of Suzano's management and on information currently available to the company. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions because they relate to future events and therefore depends on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. You should understand that general economic conditions, industry conditions and other operating factors could also affect the future results of Suzano and could cause the results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements.

在繼續之前，請注意任何前瞻性陳述均基於 Suzano 管理層的信念和假設以及公司目前可用的資訊。它們涉及風險、不確定性和假設，因為它們與未來事件有關，因此取決於未來可能發生或可能不會發生的情況。您應該明白，一般經濟狀況、產業狀況和其他經營因素也可能影響 Suzano 的未來業績，並可能導致結果與此類前瞻性陳述中表達的結果有重大差異。

Now I'll turn the conference over to Mr. Beto Abreu. Please, you may begin your conference, sir.

現在我將會議交給 Beto Abreu 先生。先生，請您開始您的會議。

Thank you very much. Hello, everyone. Welcome. Thank you for attending the first-quarter call. And before going through the results, I want to say that I'm very proud about what the team has delivered in the fourth quarter and also in 2024.

非常感謝。大家好。歡迎。感謝您參加第一季電話會議。在討論結果之前，我想說，我對團隊在第四季以及 2024 年取得的成績感到非常自豪。

The name of the game in this last quarter was flawless execution. And I want to recognize the operational excellence focus and the power of the team, the power of this organization when we decide to deliver together something. We reached our record in sales for the fourth quarter and also, of course, for the year.

最後一季的比賽重點是完美的執行。當我們決定共同完成某件事時，我想認識到卓越營運的重點、團隊的力量以及這個組織的力量。我們的第四季銷售額創下了歷史新高，當然，這也是全年銷售額創下歷史新高。

Later, the outbound logistic team did a tremendous job. And Ribas with its impressive performance reached in 2024 900,000 tons of production and 700,000 tons of sales. And let's remember, this is fully in line with the guidance that we have shared with you after the start-up in mid-2024.

後來，出站物流團隊做了大量的工作。而Ribas憑藉著令人矚目的業績，在2024年達到了90萬噸的產量和70萬噸的銷售量。請記住，這完全符合我們在 2024 年中期啟動後與您分享的指導。

Moving to cost. In the fourth quarter 2024, we were also able to set up for ourselves a new baseline of cash cost for our operation. The combination of those figures with a strong EBITDA of BRL23.8 billion for the year, bringing our leverage in dollar terms for 2.9x. I want to highlight this one since leverage is a key metric for us and guide us our capital allocation decisions.

轉向成本。2024 年第四季度，我們也為自己的營運設定了新的現金成本基準。這些數據加上全年 238 億巴西雷亞爾強勁的 EBITDA，使我們的美元槓桿率達到 2.9 倍。我想強調這一點，因為槓桿率對我們來說是一個關鍵指標，可以引導我們的資本配置決策。

Having said that, I want to invite Fabio, now also in charge of our Suzano Packaging business in US to share his insights of our Paper and Packaging business. Fabio, I'll hand over to you. Thank you very much.

話雖如此，我想邀請現在也負責我們美國 Suzano 包裝業務的 Fabio 來分享他對我們的紙張和包裝業務的見解。法比奧，我將把麥克風交給你。非常感謝。

Thanks, Beto. Good morning, everyone. Please let's turn to the next page of the presentation. We have finalized 2024 with a strong operational performance from our Brazilian operations and significant advancements in North America. The assets we have acquired from Pactiv Evergreen will be referred from now on as Suzano Packaging US and their results are incorporated into our Paper and Packaging business unit results.

謝謝，貝托。大家早安。請我們翻到簡報的下一頁。我們已確定 2024 年目標，其中巴西業務表現強勁，北美業務取得重大進展。我們從 Pactiv Evergreen 收購的資產從現在起將被稱為 Suzano Packaging US，其業績將納入我們的造紙和包裝業務部門的業績中。

During the quarter, we happily welcome to the Suzano family around 870 colleagues that work in Pine Bluff and Waynesville.

本季度，我們很高興歡迎在派恩布拉夫和韋恩斯維爾工作的約 870 名同事加入 Suzano 大家庭。

Looking to the Brazilian market, according to IBA, print and writing demand, including imports, increasing by 11.7% in the first two months of the fourth quarter compared of the same period of last year. Sales from domestic producers grew by 12.5%, while imports moderated and grew by 4% on the same basis.

放眼巴西市場，據IBA稱，第四季前兩個月包括進口在內的印刷品和書寫用品需求與去年同期相比成長了11.7%。國內生產商的銷售額成長了12.5%，而進口量則有所放緩，在同一基礎上成長了4%。

Demand for uncoated paper was bolstered by the federal government's purchase of textbooks. For coated paper, although demand is lower in the quarter with the end of the election cycle, it remains stronger when compared to the same period of last year.

聯邦政府購買教科書增加了對非塗佈紙的需求。對於塗佈紙而言，雖然選舉週期結束的季度需求較低，但與去年同期相比仍然強勁。

Markets outside Brazil performed differently. In North America and Latin America, elections and inventory rebuild positively influence demand, supporting growth demand in 2024 compared to 2023. However, in Europe, the situation has become challenging as demand positive effects have diminished and paper consumption has returned to its decline in historical rates.

巴西以外市場的表現有所不同。在北美和拉丁美洲，選舉和庫存重建對需求產生了積極影響，支持 2024 年的需求成長（與 2023 年相比）。然而，在歐洲，由於需求正面影響減弱且紙張消費量回落至歷史低位，情況變得嚴峻。

Demand for paperboard in Brazil remained robust, increasing by 9% in the first two months of the quarter compared to the same period of last year. This growth reflects the performance of the Brazilian economy and consumption levels despite some cooling in certain segments over the last quarter. In the US market, a focus region for Suzano packaging operations, according to Lumera, there was a 21% recovery in SBS demand in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared with the fourth quarter of the previous year, driven by strong performance in the food service sector following a slower-than-expected performance in 2023 and the first half of 2024.

巴西對紙板的需求依然強勁，本季前兩個月與去年同期相比成長了 9%。儘管上個季度某些領域有所降溫，但這一成長反映了巴西經濟和消費水準的表現。美國市場是 Suzano 包裝業務的重點區域，據 Lumera 稱，2024 年第四季的 SBS 需求與去年第四季相比恢復了 21%，這得益於食品服務業的強勁表現，而 2023 年和 2024 年上半年的表現低於預期。

Looking at Suzano figures, our total sales volume in the fourth quarter was 15% higher year-over-year and 24% higher quarter-over-quarter as a result of the incorporation of Suzano Packaging sales. Regarding our Brazilian operations, we had an increase in sales compared to the last quarter, pushed by higher sales to the Brazilian market, while export reduced to continued unfavorable logistic conditions.

從 Suzano 的數據來看，由於納入了 Suzano Packaging 的銷售數據，我們第四季的總銷售量年增 15%，季增 24%。就我們巴西的業務而言，由於巴西市場的銷售額增加，我們的銷售額與上一季相比有所增加，但由於持續不利的物流條件，出口有所減少。

The 4% net price growth over the last quarter is attributed to the impact of Suzano Packaging and FX effects on pricing shown in reais. Compared to the last quarter of 2023, there's a 7% increase driven by the same factors just mentioned.

上一季 4% 的淨價格成長歸因於 Suzano Packaging 和外匯效應對雷亞爾計算的定價的影響。與 2023 年最後一個季度相比，受剛才提到的相同因素推動，成長了 7%。

Looking at EBITDA, there's a 7% reduction quarter over quarter and a 3% reduction versus the fourth quarter 2023. When compared to the full year, we also have a decrease in this case of 16%. Such performance reflect the impact of the incorporation of Suzano Packaging in the US that you all know it's a turnaround case as well as lower prices on both the Brazilian and external markets of our operations in Brazil.

從 EBITDA 來看，本季季減 7%，較 2023 年第四季下降 3%。與全年相比，我們在這種情況下也下降了 16%。這樣的表現反映了 Suzano Packaging 在美國成立的影響，大家都知道這是一個扭轉局面的案例，同時也降低了我們在巴西的業務在巴西市場和外部市場的價格。

Now I want to provide some color on Suzano Packaging. The integration of our new employees, assets, customers and suppliers are on track and reflect our expectations prior to the acquisition. During the fourth quarter, we have successfully renegotiated all commercial contracts, securing much better terms for Suzano in 2025 and onwards and secured synergies on raw materials and logistics. Better prices and lower costs will positively impact Suzano Packaging results in 2025.

現在我想提供一些有關 Suzano Packaging 的資訊。我們的新員工、資產、客戶和供應商的整合正在順利進行，並反映了我們收購前的預期。在第四季度，我們成功重新談判了所有商業合同，為 Suzano 在 2025 年及以後爭取到了更優惠的條款，並確保了原材料和物流方面的協同效應。更優惠的價格和更低的成本將對 2025 年 Suzano Packaging 的業績產生正面影響。

The industrial turnaround, as shared with you on the last Suzano Day as well as CapEx plan are progressing as planned and we remain optimistic about the expected future value creation. Considering only our operations in Brazil, our business unit delivered the best quarter in terms of EBITDA of 2024, a result of improved sales levels, FX impacts on prices as well as cost reduction efforts. We end 2024 with lower cash costs compared to 2023. Looking ahead, we anticipate strong demand in the Brazilian market for uncoated and paperboard lines during 2025. Outside Brazil, we anticipate the return to the structural decline in demand in developed regions and less so in Latin America.

正如上次 Suzano Day 上與您分享的那樣，行業轉型以及資本支出計劃正在按計劃進行，我們對預期的未來價值創造仍然持樂觀態度。僅考慮我們在巴西的業務，我們的業務部門在 2024 年 EBITDA 方面實現了最好的一個季度，這是銷售水平提高、外匯對價格的影響以及成本降低的努力的結果。與 2023 年相比，2024 年底的現金成本將會降低。展望未來，我們預計 2025 年巴西市場對無塗層和紙板生產線的需求將強勁。除巴西以外，我們預期已開發地區的需求將再次出現結構性下降，而拉丁美洲的情況則好一些。

In US, paperboard demand is expected to remain strong throughout 2025. Pulp prices announcements early in 2025 could offer support to higher paper prices. In terms of logistics and input costs, we expect some stability on the absence of trade disruptions and geopolitical turmoil.

在美國，預計到 2025 年紙板需求將保持強勁。2025 年初公佈的紙漿價格可能會為紙張價格上漲提供支撐。在物流和投入成本方面，我們預計在沒有貿易中斷和地緣政治動盪的情況下將會出現一定的穩定。

Now I'll hand over to Leo, who will present our pulp business results.

現在我將交給 Leo，他將介紹我們的紙漿業務成果。

Thanks, Fabio and good morning, everyone. So now moving to the next slide of our presentation, I would like to begin by sharing some facts related to our pulp business unit during this past quarter and as well for the full year 2024.

謝謝，法比奧，大家早安。現在轉到我們簡報的下一張投影片，我想先分享一些與我們的紙漿業務部門在過去一個季度以及 2024 年全年相關的事實。

The fourth-quarter '24 was marked by lower prices as a consequence of monthly reductions in Europe and Americas, closing the gap to Asian prices, which also declined in the quarter, but presented a flattish curve as of from the end of November with low levels tagging below the marginal cash cost of pulp producers.

2024年第四季，由於歐洲和美洲的月度降價，價格出現下跌，與亞洲價格的差距縮小，亞洲價格在本季度也出現下跌，但從11月底開始呈現平緩曲線，低水平低於紙漿生產商的邊際現金成本。

Q4 was also marked by healthier operating rates from our Asian customers as well as their improved margins, resulting in a positive market sentiment. It is important to note that a significant unexpected event, the first partial and later a complete operation seize of a major Chinese integrated pulp and paper producer changed dynamics in the region quickly, favoring most of our nonintegrated customers.

第四季度，我們亞洲客戶的營運率更高，利潤率也更高，從而帶來了積極的市場情緒。值得注意的是，一個重大的意外事件，中國一家大型綜合紙漿和造紙生產商先是部分停產，隨後全面停產，迅速改變了該地區的形勢，有利於我們大多數非綜合客戶。

During Q4 '24, our sales, including the new volumes coming from Ribas mill were performed as planned and allow us to set an all-time high volume for a quarter. As a consequence of this record sales, our inventories became tight and this picture will bring us some challenges ahead to serve our customers, which I will share with you a bit later in my speech.

24年第四季度，我們的銷售（包括來自Ribas工廠的新產量）均按計劃進行，並使我們創下了本季度銷量的歷史新高。由於創紀錄的銷售，我們的庫存變得緊張，這種情況將為我們在服務客戶方面帶來一些挑戰，我將在稍後的演講中與大家分享。

Despite lower prices in Q4, the combination of higher volumes and favorable FX resulted in a resilient EBITDA of BRL5.7 billion. For the full-year 2024, higher prices in US dollars, higher volumes and the FX levels resulted in a 37% increase in the EBITDA, which reached almost BRL21 billion with a 56% EBITDA margin.

儘管第四季價格較低，但由於銷售增加和外匯有利，EBITDA 仍保持穩健，達到 57 億巴西雷亞爾。2024 年全年，美元價格上漲、交易量增加和外匯水準導致 EBITDA 成長 37%，達到近 210 億雷亞爾，EBITDA 利潤率為 56%。

Now looking forward, I would like to highlight the following points. Coming into the current first quarter of '25, let me now better explain why I see a challenging scenario to serve all markets with pulp volumes. The addition of factors such as Suzano's low inventories at year-end with a very healthy order entry during this past months, January included and our lower production volumes in turn due to a concentration of scheduled maintenance downtimes would already mean along a tough quarter for our logistics operations, but we had prepared ourselves for this scenario.

展望未來，我想強調以下幾點。進入25年第一季度，現在讓我更好地解釋為什麼我看到了為所有紙漿市場提供服務的挑戰性。加上一些因素，例如 Suzano 在年底的庫存較低，而過去幾個月（包括 1 月份）的訂單量非常旺盛，再加上由於計劃內維護停機時間集中而導致的生產量較低，這些因素已經意味著我們的物流運營將面臨一個艱難的季度，但我們已經為這種情況做好了準備。

However, on top of we had planned for, the occurrence of new and recent unexpected events such as the conversion of a key competitor to dissolving pulp during all of Q1, strikes in Finland and operational problems at competitors' mills, all affecting the supply side of the equation and the ongoing halt of the already mentioned major integrated player in China have all tided significantly the S&D fundamentals in the short term. Just to bring you more color, every month that such integrated player is down, the S&D fundamentals are affected in two ways.

然而，除了我們計劃之外，最近還發生了新的意外事件，例如整個第一季主要競爭對手轉向溶解漿、芬蘭的罷工以及競爭對手工廠的運營問題，這些都影響了供應方，而前面提到的中國主要綜合企業的持續停產都在短期內嚴重影響了 S&D 基本面。為了帶給您更多細節，每個月這樣的綜合參與者都會陷入困境，S＆D 基本面會受到兩種影響。

First and directly, there is the impact of the cease of production and the benefit that this creates to our customers, mostly Chinese customers who have been increasing their paper and board production levels and also their prices in the market. We estimate that every month that this player is down, over 200,000 tons of new hardwood demand is generated in China alone.

首先也是最直接的，停產的影響以及由此給我們的客戶帶來的好處，客戶主要是中國客戶，他們一直在提高紙張和紙板的生產水平以及市場價格。我們估計，該廠商每個月停產，僅在中國就會產生超過20萬噸新的硬木需求。

There is also a secondary effect as quite often, this player also used to sell their excess hardwood pulp in the market, especially when paper margins were not positive enough. This has obviously ceased completely as well. I anticipate that during most, if not all of Q1, we at Suzano will struggle to recover our delivery performance to Middle East, African and Asian markets, all markets that are serviced directly out of Brazil as our sales during these past months exceeded our regional expectations, resulting in the creation of backlogs in our system.

還有一個次要影響，因為很多時候，該參與者也習慣在市場上出售其多餘的硬木紙漿，尤其是在紙張利潤率不夠高的時候。這顯然也已經完全停止了。我預計，在第一季的大部分時間（如果不是全部時間），Suzano 將難以恢復對中東、非洲和亞洲市場的交付績效，這些市場均由巴西直接提供服務，因為我們過去幾個月的銷售額超出了我們對該地區的預期，導致我們的系統中產生積壓訂單。

Our January price increases were all fully implemented as planned and the February hikes are also expected to come. Such positive dynamics for the first few months of the year paves a constructive sentiment for pulp prices in the upcoming months. This short-term momentum clearly is a reflection of unplanned events on pulp fundamentals, which, as I have been constantly stating in our calls and events such as the latest Suzano Day, are playing a bigger and bigger role in our markets.

我們1月份的價格上漲已經全部按計畫實施，2月份的價格上漲也將按計畫進行。今年頭幾個月的這種積極勢頭為未來幾個月的紙漿價格奠定了良好的基礎。這種短期勢頭顯然是紙漿基本面意外事件的反映，正如我在電話會議和最近的 Suzano Day 等活動中不斷提到的那樣，紙漿基本面在我們的市場中發揮著越來越大的作用。

Last but not least, the price gap between hardwood and softwood as well as an unclear scenario in terms of softwood availability keeps favoring demand for our pulp and most importantly, are setting a new record, a new record in number of projects and engagements with our customers who are willing to deeply participate in fiber substitution projects, a game changer for ECA pulp demand growth.

最後但同樣重要的一點是，硬木和軟木之間的價格差距以及軟木供應方面的不明朗形勢繼續有利於我們紙漿的需求，最重要的是，我們正在創下新紀錄，在項目數量和與願意深入參與纖維替代項目的客戶合作方面創下新紀錄，這將改變 ECA 紙漿需求的增長。

With that said, I would now like to invite Aires to address with you the cash cost performance of the quarter.

說了這麼多，現在我想請艾利斯與大家討論本季的現金成本表現。

Thank you, Leo. Good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，Leo。大家早安。

The cash production cost in the fourth quarter '24 dropped 7% versus the previous quarter, coming in line with the forecast we shared with you in the last earnings call. The lower cash cost can be explained by three reasons: one, the lower wood cost in turn due to a closer average distance from forest to mill; two, the outstanding performance of Ribas, benefiting the dilution of fixed cost and energy sales; and finally, the lower cost with inputs, both in price and consumption, the latter due to the greater operational stability of some mills.

24 年第四季的現金生產成本較上一季下降了 7%，與我們在上次財報電話會議上與您分享的預測一致。較低的現金成本可以用三個原因來解釋：第一，由於森林到工廠的平均距離較近，木材成本也較低；二、Ribas業績優異，受惠於固定成本及能源銷售的攤薄；最後，無論是價格還是消費，投入成本都較低，後者是由於一些工廠的運作穩定性較高。

Lower costs with wood and inputs as well as the positive effect of Ribas Mill also explain the better performance of the cash production costs compared to the fourth quarter '23, which was virtually offset by a FX depreciation of 18% in the period. Although a higher FX always benefits the company's cash generation, it is worth mentioning that about 23% of the cash production cost is dollar-linked.

木材和投入成本的降低以及 Ribas Mill 的積極影響也解釋了與 23 年第四季度相比現金生產成本表現更好，但這一表現實際上被該時期 18% 的外匯貶值所抵消。儘管較高的外匯匯率總是有利於公司的現金產生，但值得一提的是，約23%的現金生產成本與美元掛鉤。

Now looking to 2025, in the first quarter, we expected the cash cost ex downtime consider here an FX level at BRL5.8 will come with a non-recurring increase of mid-single digit due to the concentration of scheduled maintenance downtimes in the quarter of our largest, high competitive energy exporting mills, such as Tres Lagoas and Ribas. Even with this one-off increase in the cash cost in the fourth quarter '25, the average cash cost ex downtimes for full year of 2025, here again with the same FX of at BRL5.8, should be flattish when they compare to the fourth quarter '24. As I have already clarified, a lower FX ahead would allow us to print an even lower cash production cost for 2025.

展望2025年，在第一季度，我們預計除停工外的現金成本（考慮到外匯水平為5.8巴西雷亞爾）將出現中等個位數的非經常性增長，這是由於計劃維護停工時間集中在我們規模最大、競爭力最高的能源出口工廠（如Tres Lagoas和Ribas）的季度。即使 2025 年第四季的現金成本出現一次性增加，2025 年全年除停工外的平均現金成本（匯率同樣為 5.8 巴西雷亞爾）與 2024 年第四季相比應該持平。正如我已經澄清的那樣，未來較低的外匯匯率將使我們能夠在 2025 年實現更低的現金生產成本。

Moving to the next slide. On the last Suzano Day in the mid-December, I shared with you the company's view that Ribas ramp-up would be completed in January this year. In other words, in just six months and not in the nine months initially planned for this type of project. But the outstanding performance of the new mill in its first months of operation allow us to deliver an even better result as we were able to conclude the learning curve at the end of fourth-quarter '24.

移至下一張投影片。在 12 月中旬的最後一次 Suzano Day 上，我與大家分享了公司的觀點，即 Ribas 產能提升將於今年 1 月完成。換句話說，僅用六個月的時間，而不是最初為此類專案計劃的九個月的時間。但是，新工廠在營運的頭幾個月表現出色，使我們能夠取得更好的業績，因為我們能夠在24年第四季末完成學習曲線。

I would like to also share with you that in the last January, Ribas mill already had the best cash production cost in our assets portfolio. And after its scheduled downtime now in February, the operations will resume with even better performance.

我還想與大家分享的是，去年 1 月，Ribas 工廠已經擁有我們資產組合中最佳的現金生產成本。在二月份按計劃停機之後，運營將恢復，並且性能會更好。

Regarding the caps related to Cerrado project, there is no change to Suzano's guidance. In 2025, the final balance of BRL150 million is expected to be disbursed. Now I invite Marcos to continue the presentation.

至於與 Cerrado 項目相關的上限，Suzano 的指導沒有改變。2025年預計將支付1.5億雷亞爾的最終餘額。現在我請馬可斯繼續演講。

Good morning, everyone. Thank you, Aires. I'll start on slide number 8, talking about our net debt evolution throughout 2024.

大家早安。謝謝你，艾利斯。我將從第 8 張投影片開始討論我們 2024 年全年的淨債務演變。

We started the year with a net debt at $11.5 billion. We generated $1.8 billion in cash flow after paying our maintenance CapEx, financial expenses, taxes and working capital. We also invested $1.5 billion in growth projects, mainly at Cerrado, but also in other projects. So we would end the year following these events with a net debt of $11.2 billion.

我們今年年初的淨債務為 115 億美元。在支付維護資本支出、財務費用、稅金和營運資金後，我們產生了 18 億美元的現金流。我們也投資了 15 億美元用於成長項目，主要在 Cerrado，但也投資其他項目。因此，在這些事件發生之後，到年底我們的淨債務將達到 112 億美元。

However, we also invested money in other acquisitions, mainly in the forestry assets in Brazil and also our acquisitions outside of Brazil, the Lenzing stake and also Pactiv in the US and we returned to shareholders $0.8 billion or $800 million in buybacks and interest on equity. So our net debt ended the year at $12.8 billion.

然而，我們也在其他收購上投入了資金，主要是巴西的林業資產，以及我們在巴西以外的收購，包括蘭精股份和美國的 Pactiv，我們透過回購和股權利息向股東返還了 8 億美元或 8 億美元。因此，到年底我們的淨債務為 128 億美元。

The good news here is that we continue our deleveraging process and we ended the year at 2.9x net debt to EBITDA when measured in dollars and that's the trend that we will continue to pursue in the coming quarters. For the amortization schedule, we continue to have a very comfortable one with an average cost of debt of 5% in dollars and an average maturity of more than six years with no significant maturities in the quarter.

好消息是，我們繼續去槓桿化進程，以美元計算，今年年底我們的淨債務與 EBITDA 比率為 2.9 倍，我們將在未來幾季繼續保持這一趨勢。對於攤銷計劃，我們繼續有一個非常舒適的計劃，平均債務成本為 5%（以美元計算），平均到期日超過六年，且本季沒有重大到期日。

Moving to slide number 9. Our financial results came in at negative $15.6 billion, mainly an accounting issue caused by the negative FX variation impact on our debt in dollars and also the mark-to-market of our cash flow hedges. We continue to have a very solid and robust portfolio of hedges with our zero-cost collars totaling at the end of December, $6.9 billion with an average put and call at BRL5.36 for our puts and BRL6.16 for our calls. So we remain well protected against any risk of BRLappreciation over time.

移至第 9 張投影片。我們的財務表現為負 156 億美元，主要是由於外匯變動對我們的美元債務以及現金流對沖的市價造成負面影響而導致的會計問題。我們繼續擁有非常穩固和強勁的對沖投資組合，截至 12 月底，我們的零成本領圈期權總額為 69 億美元，看跌期權的平均看跌價和看漲價分別為 5.36 巴西雷亞爾和 6.16 巴西雷亞爾。因此，我們能夠很好地抵禦巴西雷亞爾隨著時間的推移而升值的風險。

Moving to slide number 9 (sic - "10"). We'd like to highlight the company's strong shareholder remuneration in 2024. As I mentioned, we bought back BRL2.8 billion in shares throughout the year and we also paid BRL1.5 billion of interest on equity in the beginning of the year and announced it by the end of the year, another interest earned on capital payment for the beginning of 2025 of BRL2.5 billion.

移至投影片 9（原文如此 - “10”）。我們要強調的是該公司 2024 年強勁的股東報酬。正如我所提到的，我們全年回購了 28 億雷亞爾的股票，並且我們還在年初支付了 15 億雷亞爾的股權利息，並在年底宣布了 2025 年初資本支付所得的另一筆利息，金額為 25 億雷亞爾。

So in total, for 2024, we returned to shareholders BRL4.3 billion, which is equivalent to a dividend yield of 6% for the company.

因此，總體而言，到 2024 年，我們向股東返還了 43 億巴西雷亞爾，相當於該公司 6% 的股息殖利率。

Now I'd like to pass the word back to Beto for his final remarks.

現在我想請貝托做最後的發言。

Thank you, Marcos. So looking ahead, let me start with the supply and demand balance.

謝謝你，馬科斯。展望未來，我先從供需平衡開始。

On the supply side, for the first quarter, we will have constraint, as Aires mentioned already of volumes availability on the back of significant concentration of maintenance downtime. On the demand side, we are seeing a favorable moment for pulp price, which reinforce the impact that unplanned events brings to our sector.

在供應方面，正如艾利斯 (Aires) 之前所提到的，第一季我們將受到供應量限制，因為維護停機時間大量集中導致供應量減少。在需求方面，我們看到紙漿價格的有利時機，這強化了意外事件對我們產業帶來的影響。

It's also worth mentioning that Leo and the whole technical team will have as first priority the fiber-to-fiber projects with our customer. This is a key part of our customer value proposition and this is also part of our customer needs. The first quarter cash cost, as I mentioned, is a new reference for 2025 despite the uptick in the first quarter of 2025.

另外值得一提的是，Leo 和整個技術團隊將把與客戶的光纖到光纖專案作為首要任務。這是我們的客戶價值主張的關鍵部分，也是我們客戶需求的一部分。正如我所提到的，儘管 2025 年第一季的現金成本有所上升，但第一季的現金成本對於 2025 年來說是一個新參考。

At Suzano Packaging US, the turnaround has started and I want to congratulate Fabio and the small team that moved to Little Rock in Arkansas to lead this process and lead the whole team at Pine Bluff. So Fabio, so far, so good. And finally, as Marcos said, our plan is to keep deleveraging in 2025.

在 Suzano Packaging US，轉機已經開始，我要祝賀 Fabio 和搬到阿肯色州小石城的小團隊，他們領導著這一進程並帶領著 Pine Bluff 的整個團隊。所以 Fabio，到目前為止一切都很好。最後，正如馬科斯所說，我們的計劃是在 2025 年繼續去槓桿。

Having said that, let's now proceed with the Q&A session.

話雖如此，現在我們繼續問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Daniel Sasson, Itau BBA.

(操作員指示) Daniel Sasson，Itau BBA。

My first question for Beto or Marcos. I'd like to hear your thoughts on the new administration in the US taking more protectionist measures. We've seen some news out this week on the steel and aluminum industries. Does that change at all your growth strategy in the country or the attractiveness of new potential ventures or M&A activity in the country?

我的第一個問題是問 Beto 或 Marcos。我想聽聽您對美國新政府採取更多保護主義措施的看法。本週我們看到了一些有關鋼鐵和鋁業的新聞。這是否會改變您在該國的成長策略或該國新潛在企業或併購活動的吸引力？

Do you expect any sort of tariffs related to the pulp and paper sectors? So just wondering how that changes, the new government change -- if the new government changes anything in terms of your capital allocation decisions in the country?

您預期紙漿和造紙產業會面臨何種關稅？所以只是想知道新政府將如何改變這一點——新政府是否會對你們在該國的資本配置決策做出任何改變？

And my second question, maybe to Leo. Leo, just to confirm, you said that the capacity that left the market in China has translated in 200,000 tons of additional demand per month, right, from these nonintegrated players that are basically taking over the room left in the market. Do you have any views or can you update us on the current situation of that specific player or the current market situation, if you think this is something more temporary and that should revert at some point?

我的第二個問題是問 Leo 的。Leo，我只是想確認一下，您說中國市場失去的產能意味著每月新增 20 萬噸需求，這些非整合參與者基本上佔據了市場剩餘的空間。如果您認為這只是暫時的，並且應該在某個時候恢復，您是否有任何看法或能否向我們介紹該特定參與者的當前情況或當前的市場情況？

Or if do you think that this could actually become more structural in the market? And if you're feeling comfortable enough with your inventory levels that you said were -- or ended the year at low levels, if we should think about a recomposition of inventories throughout 2025?

或者您認為這實際上會在市場上變得更加結構化？如果您對庫存水準感到足夠滿意，或者年底庫存水準較低，我們是否應該考慮在 2025 年重新調整庫存？

So starting with your question regarding the US and if the recent moves changes our strategy on capital allocation, I would say that it doesn't, okay? Because when we're looking to capital allocation, we're looking to the long term of that decision.

所以從你關於美國的問題開始，如果最近的措施改變了我們的資本配置策略，我會說不會，好嗎？因為當我們考慮資本配置時，我們會考慮這個決策的長期性。

We continue to see the US market as a market that has a robust growth. It's a market on the paper side also that has a quite concentrated market in terms of the leading players. And also, it's a market that is somehow more protected against imports and the recent news are also in that line. So this doesn't change the attractiveness of the market for us, okay? Regarding tariffs, just to give you a brief overview.

我們繼續將美國市場視為強勁成長的市場。從主要參與者來看，紙張市場也相當集中。此外，這個市場在某種程度上對進口商品有更強的保護，最近的新聞也反映了這一點。所以這不會改變市場對我們的吸引力，好嗎？關於關稅，我只是想給你一個簡單的概述。

First and looking to the history as a reference in the past years and mandates, we haven't seen any tariffs on pulp, which is our biggest business by far, right? There has been tariffs on the paper side and we actually are enforced by that as well when we export to the US. So that is something that you should bear in mind.

首先，回顧過去幾年和過去的規定，我們還沒有看到對紙漿徵收任何關稅，而紙漿是迄今為止我們最大的業務，對嗎？紙張方面有關稅，當我們向美國出口時，我們實際上也受到關稅的強制。所以這是你應該牢記的事情。

We also believe that the US is short in terms of hardwood pulp, right? And there is no incentives for new plants in the US. There has not been incentives for new plants in the US in the previous years. So it doesn't seem to be economical for the US to be implementing tariffs in the pulp industry. So I think that's it on my side.

我們也認為美國的硬木紙漿短缺，對嗎？而且美國對新建工廠沒有任何激勵措施。前幾年，美國並沒有對新工廠提供獎勵措施。因此，美國對紙漿產業徵收關稅似乎不經濟。所以我想這就是我的看法。

This is Leo here. I'm going to try to answer your question on the impact of the Chinese mill, which we obviously all know I'm talking about Chenming, which is also a state-owned company. This is a very complex situation. They are a major paper and board and pulp producer in China, totalizing over 4 million tons of paper production, 2 million tons of board, over 2 million tons of hardwood pulp and then over 1 million tons of thermomechanical pulp as well.

我是 Leo。我將嘗試回答你關於中國鋼廠影響的問題，顯然我們都知道我指的是晨鳴鋼鐵，它也是一家國有企業。這是一個非常複雜的情況。該公司是中國主要的紙、紙板和紙漿生產商，總產量超過 400 萬噸紙張、200 萬噸紙板、200 多萬噸闊葉木漿以及超過 100 萬噸熱機械漿。

We calculate that every month that they are down, as I said, over -- it's not 200,000, it's over 200,000 tons of new demand for hardwood is created by our customers, mostly nonintegrated customers who are obviously accelerating or speeding up the operating rates and recovering this market share left by Chenming in the market.

我們計算了一下，正如我所說的，每個月產量下降超過—不是20萬噸，而是20多萬噸，而這都是由我們的客戶創造的，這些客戶大多是非綜合性客戶，他們顯然正在加快或加快開工率，以收回晨鳴留下的市場份額。

What we hear on the ground in China is that clearly, the government is eager to find a solution to the mill, but it's quite complex because it's not only about the sales of the equity of the mill, but it's related to debt, cash flow and also the quality of assets that make up this huge paper and pulp producer in China. So our estimations, obviously, we run several different scenarios on that and how we play and position ourselves in the market depends obviously in which scenario we will roll out and this is quite sensitive to our commercial strategy.

我們在中國實地聽到的消息是，政府顯然急於為該工廠找到解決方案，但這個問題相當複雜，因為這不僅涉及工廠股權的出售，還涉及債務、現金流以及中國這家大型紙張和紙漿生產商的資產品質。因此，我們的估計顯然是對此進行了幾種不同的情境模擬，而我們在市場中如何發揮作用和定位自己顯然取決於我們將在哪種情境中推出，這對我們的商業策略非常敏感。

So we cannot share exactly what we believe will happen. But I can say it's quite complex. And indeed, every time that we talk and get deeper and deeper into the discussion, it seems the issue is harder to be solved.

因此我們無法確切地分享我們認為會發生什麼。但我可以說它相當複雜。事實上，每次我們交談並深入討論時，這個問題似乎就越難解決。

Despite all of that, I believe it's temporary. I think a solution will be found. I'm not sure when, but it will be found. But it's important to mention and to say that, obviously, every month that they are down, whatever they left to our customers will not be recovered. So we are monitoring as we speak the situation in China.

儘管如此，我相信這只是暫時的。我認為我們會找到解決辦法的。我不確定什麼時候，但一定會找到的。但值得一提的是，很明顯，他們每個月的停機時間，留給我們客戶的一切都將無法恢復。我們正在密切關注中國的情況。

Leonardo Correa, BTG Pactual.

萊昂納多·科雷亞，BTG Pactual。

Okay. So a couple of things on my side. The first one on the cash cost. Aires, I remember the third quarter, you said that you were expecting the cash cost number for 2025 to reduce about low double digits from the level in the third quarter, right, which was about BRL816. So at the time, we were thinking something -- assuming that math, we were thinking something in the range of, let's say, BRL770, BRL780 per ton as a pulp cash cost.

好的。就我而言，有幾件事。第一個是關於現金成本。Aires，我記得在第三季度，您說過預計 2025 年的現金成本數字將比第三季度的水平下降約兩位數，當時約為 816 巴西雷亞爾。所以當時，我們在考慮一些事情 — — 假設數學計算，我們在考慮紙漿現金成本在每噸 770 巴西雷亞爾至 780 巴西雷亞爾的範圍內。

Now to see if I understood exactly what the new, let's say, the revised guidance is, you're indicating that the levels in the first quarter for cash cost will increase a bit given some maintenance stoppages. And for the year, for the full 2025, you're expecting pulp cash cost to be on average flattish versus the fourth quarter, which is about BRL800 per ton.

現在，看看我是否準確地了解新的、修訂後的指引，您指出，由於一些維護停工，第一季的現金成本水準將略有上升。就全年而言，預計紙漿現金成本平均與第四季持平，約為每噸 800 巴西雷亞爾。

So basically, over these months, we're seeing a small creep up in, let's say, the official guidance for Suzano from, let's say, BRL770, BRL780 to about BRL800 based on the relevant changes in parameters over the period. So I just wanted to double-check with you if my understanding is correct or if I'm missing something. And my second question for Marcos.

因此基本上，在這幾個月裡，根據期間內相關參數的變化，我們看到 Suzano 的官方指導價格從 770 巴西雷亞爾、780 巴西雷亞爾小幅上漲至約 800 巴西雷亞爾。所以我只是想和你再確認我的理解是否正確或我是否遺漏了什麼。我的第二個問題是問馬可斯。

Again, Marcos, I mean, the level of free cash flow generation is quite substantial, right? There still is a bit of growth CapEx in the numbers. If you look at it on a maintenance perspective, I mean, the free cash flow yield is even higher, right? I mean we're talking about relevant numbers. At the same time, you stopped buying back shares, right, I think, over the past months, given the share price appreciation.

再說一次，馬可斯，我的意思是，自由現金流的產生水準相當可觀，對嗎？數字中資本支出仍有一些成長。如果從維護的角度來看，我的意思是，自由現金流收益率甚至更高，對嗎？我的意思是我們正在討論相關數字。同時，我認為，鑑於股價上漲，過去幾個月你們就停止回購股票了。

Suzano stock continues trading at very de-rated levels versus global peers, right? I mean we're seeing something which seems a bit dysfunctional or it seems abnormal to see Suzano trading at the lowest multiple in the entire coverage universe, thinking regionally and thinking globally.

與全球同業相比，Suzano 股票的交易價格仍然很低，對嗎？我的意思是，我們看到一些事情似乎有點不正常，或者說不正常，看到 Suzano 的交易倍數是整個覆蓋範圍內最低的，無論是從區域角度還是從全球角度考慮。

So I just wanted to pick your brains a bit on -- I mean, how are you thinking this de-rating? How are you thinking buybacks in this context of still a very de-rated stock where the market seems to be very skeptical on capital allocation going forward? Those are my two questions.

所以我只是想向您諮詢一下——我的意思是，您如何看待這種降級？在股票評級仍然很低、市場似乎對未來的資本配置持懷疑態度的情況下，您如何看待回購？這是我的兩個問題。

Thank for your question. That gives me opportunity to clarify the information about cash cost. You are correct. When you presented the results of third quarter, I said that full year, the average to 2025 will decrease a low single digit. But at the moment, single digit, not double digit, sorry.

感謝您的提問。這使我有機會澄清有關現金成本的資訊。你是對的。當您介紹第三季的業績時，我說過，到 2025 年，全年平均業績將下降一個低個位數。但目前，是一位數，不是兩位數，抱歉。

At this moment, we consider FX of BRL5.35 to this year. And now I present -- predict with BRL5.8 for FX. As I mentioned, our costs are linked 23% with dollar. What represent that every $0.10 that we increase in the FX, we have an impact of BRL4 per ton in the cash cost. That's all the difference that we consider here in this new guidance.

目前，我們認為今年的外匯匯率為 5.35 巴西雷亞爾。現在我預測外匯價格將達到 5.8 巴西雷亞爾。正如我所提到的，我們的成本與美元掛鉤23％。這意味著外匯每增加 0.10 美元，現金成本就會增加 4 巴西雷亞爾/噸。這就是我們在新指南中考慮到的所有差異。

And now I said flattish because I'm comparing with the fourth quarter, not only more with the third quarter, will be 7%, 8% lower than the third quarter and all the difference is connected with dollar base.

我現在說持平，因為我正在與第四季度進行比較，不僅與第三季相比，將比第三季低 7%、8%，而且所有差異都與美元基數有關。

Thank you for your question. Yes, I agree with you. We are running the company with a very strong level of free cash flow generation. The buyback, we always compare the buyback with the other capital allocation alternatives that the company have. And also, we also look at our leverage policy as well, right?

感謝您的提問。是的，我同意你的看法。我們經營公司時擁有非常強大的自由現金流生成能力。對於回購，我們總是將回購與公司擁有的其他資本配置替代方案進行比較。而且我們也考慮我們的槓桿政策，對嗎？

So we will need to find the right spot between the two things, the two variables in order to do the buybacks or to be more active on the buybacks. As you know, we have an open program until the beginning of next year. So we could do that if we find the right moment to do that. Again, comparing the other alternatives that we have for capital allocation and also aiming at continuing deleveraging the company, okay?

因此，我們需要在這兩件事、這兩個變數之間找到正確的點，以便進行回購或更積極地進行回購。正如你們所知，我們的計劃將持續到明年年初。所以，如果我們找到合適的時機，我們就可以做到這一點。再次，比較我們在資本配置方面的其他選擇，同時也致力於繼續降低公司的槓桿率，好嗎？

Regarding the de-rating that you mentioned, we also agree with that. We believe that this is something that is not only for Suzano that is happening. I think this is probably also related to the -- to interest rate levels, not only in Brazil, but also in the world and at some point in time should revert.

至於您提到的降級，我們也同意。我們相信，這不僅發生在蘇札諾身上。我認為這也可能與利率水準有關，不僅在巴西，而且在世界範圍內，並且在某個時間點應該恢復。

Marcio Farid, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的馬西奧法里德 (Marcio Farid)。

I want to follow up on the capital allocation strategy. Obviously, a lot of news recently and I wouldn't ask you to comment on any of the ones that have been ventilated. But I'm just trying to understand if you can provide some details for us. I mean, when you think about the strategy, I wanted to understand, I mean, where the company focus is in terms of grades, in terms of geographies?

我想跟進資本配置策略。顯然，最近有很多新聞，我不會要求你對任何已經曝光的新聞發表評論。但我只是想了解您是否可以為我們提供一些詳細資訊。我的意思是，當你考慮戰略時，我想了解，就等級而言，就地域而言，公司重點在哪裡？

You mentioned in the previous calls that there is not -- well, in the previous conversations, actually, there is nothing transformational on the pipeline. But given just the recent headlines, I wanted to understand what do you consider as a concept, transformational and not? And again, how should we think about focus in terms of geographies and grades as well when you think about downstream?

您在先前的通話中提到，實際上，在先前的對話中，管道上沒有任何變革。但僅從最近的頭條新聞來看，我想了解您認為什麼是概念，什麼是變革性的，什麼不是？再說了，當您考慮下游時，我們應該如何從地理和等級的角度考慮重點？

And also a follow-up on the deleverage side, Marcos, I remember at least on -- your predecessor used to talk about $800 per ton as kind of a target for leverage. That would imply around $11.5 billion of net debt today. Is that still the target? There has been any change in terms of that understanding on where you want to be in terms of balance sheet leverage?

關於去槓桿方面的後續問題，馬科斯，我記得至少——您的前任曾經談到每噸 800 美元作為槓桿的目標。這意味著今天的淨債務約為115億美元。這還是我們的目標嗎？您對資產負債表槓桿比率的理解有什麼改變嗎？

Thank you, Marcio, for the call. Let me start talking about your first question related to capital allocation and strategy. As you know, we do not comment any specific M&A initiative, but I want to reinforce what I said in the last call and what you just mentioned that we are not considering any transformational deal. Maybe your next question to me would be, okay, what you mean about transformational deal? And I think a good way to summarize this is that we are not planning and we do not have in our screen anything that could impact our deleverage plan.

謝謝馬西奧 (Marcio) 的來電。讓我開始談談您第一個與資本配置和策略相關的問題。如您所知，我們不對任何具體的併購舉措發表評論，但我想重申我在上次電話會議中所說的話以及您剛才提到的，我們沒有考慮任何轉型交易。也許您要問我的下一個問題是，您所說的轉型交易是什麼意思？我認為，一個很好的總結就是，我們沒有計劃，而​​且我們的螢幕上也沒有任何可能影響我們去槓桿計劃的事情。

I think that's the best way to summarize this. The strategy is the same. We're going to keep looking opportunities in the downstream, but it's -- since it's generating value for us and since we can differentiate ourselves against any other opportunity. So we are keeping the same strategy as mentioned before.

我認為這是總結這一點的最好方式。策略是一樣的。我們將繼續尋找下游的機會，但它是—因為它為我們創造了價值，我們可以使自己與任何其他機會區分開來。因此我們將保留之前提到的相同策略。

Let me hand over here to Marcos to go over the other question, Marcio.

讓我把這個交給馬科斯 (Marcos) 來討論另一個問題，馬西奧 (Marcio)。

You mentioned about $800 per ton target for our net debt. That continues to be the case. If you do the math with our full capacity, including our pulp capacity that is integrated into our paper capacity, that number will be closer to -- it will be between $11.5 billion and $12 billion. That's a good reference.

您提到我們的淨債務目標約為每噸 800 美元。這種情況至今仍是如此。如果計算我們的全部產能，包括整合到紙張產能中的紙漿產能，那麼這個數字將更接近——在 115 億美元到 120 億美元之間。這是一個很好的參考。

Rafael Barcellos, Bradesco BBI.

拉斐爾·巴塞洛斯（Rafael Barcellos），Bradesco BBI。

My first question is about Ribas operations. So I just wanted to understand if you have already identified any debottlenecking opportunities in the asset. If not, when you'll be able to have more visibility on that? And other than that, I mean, how do you see its cost evolution and whether there's any other opportunities to improve its performance, okay?

我的第一個問題是關於 Ribas 的營運。所以我只是想知道您是否已經發現了資產中的任何瓶頸消除機會。如果沒有，什麼時候您能夠對此有更深入的了解？除此之外，我的意思是，您如何看待它的成本演變以及是否還有其他機會來改善其性能，好嗎？

And then my second question, just a follow-up on the capital allocation. So I know that you released your M&A guidelines during Suzano Day, but I just wanted to better understand which business line you have referenced, right? I mean Suzano has now a packaging operation in the US, so whether Suzano should focus more on the packaging side or really be open to other opportunities in tissue or even pulp? So I just wanted to understand in more detail which type of business you would prefer?

然後我的第二個問題是有關資本配置的後續問題。所以我知道您在 Suzano Day 期間發布了您的併購指南，但我只是想更好地了解您提到了哪條業務線，對嗎？我的意思是 Suzano 現在在美國有一家包裝業務公司，那麼 Suzano 是否應該更多地專注於包裝方面，還是真正對紙巾甚至紙漿領域的其他機會持開放態度？所以我只是想更詳細地了解您更喜歡哪種類型的業務？

Rafael, let me start with the second question and I'll hand over here to Aires. But regarding the preference of where to allocate the CapEx or any specific line of business, we are agnostic about that. The drivers are really doing something that we can scale up in the future, doing something that we can differentiate ourselves, again, adding all the competence and knowledge that we have in the business and also doing something that we can fit completely with our strategy. So we are really thinking about generating value. So there's no preference for a specific line of business on the capital allocation strategy.

拉斐爾，讓我先問第二個問題，然後我將問題交給艾利斯。但對於如何分配資本支出或任何特定業務線的偏好，我們對此持懷疑態度。這些驅動因素實際上就是做一些我們可以在未來擴大規模的事情，做一些我們可以與眾不同的事情，再次增加我們在業務中擁有的所有能力和知識，同時也做一些我們可以完全適應我們的策略的事情。所以我們真正考慮的是創造價值。因此，資本配置策略並不偏好某一特定的業務線。

Let me hand over to Aires.

讓我把麥克風交給艾利斯。

Rafael, thanks for your question. I believe it's so early to talk about any bottlenecking in Ribas. Of course, that we are very optimistic with how robust our assets are presenting performance. When I said that we achieved the total line curve at the end of December, it means that we performed for 30 consecutive days in average that should deliver us a nominal capacity.

拉斐爾，謝謝你的提問。我認為現在談論 Ribas 面臨的瓶頸還為時過早。當然，我們對於資產的強勁表現非常樂觀。當我說我們在 12 月底實現了總線曲線時，這意味著我們平均連續 30 天運行，應該可以達到名義產能。

And you've got to do this. We see only 5 months and 10 days. Then the perspective is good, but we are finishing our previous shutdown in the Ribas to check if everything is okay. And probably in the coming quarters, we will be able to talk about any bottleneck that we would identify at the mill.

你必須這麼做。我們只看到 5 個月 10 天。那麼前景是好的，但是我們正在完成之前在里巴斯的關閉，以檢查一切是否正常。可能在接下來的幾個季度裡，我們將能夠討論我們在工廠發現的任何瓶頸。

Caio Ribeiro, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Caio Ribeiro。

So my first question is on the CapEx front. One of the constant debates that we have here is which line items from the CapEx guidance are recurring, which ones are not in the sense that every year, there are line items related to land and forest acquisitions and expansion and modernization of facilities.

所以我的第一個問題是關於資本支出方面。我們在這裡不斷爭論的一個問題是，資本支出指導中的哪些項目是重複出現的，哪些不是，因為每年都有與土地和森林收購以及設施擴建和現代化相關的項目。

So I wanted to ask you, I mean, how should we think about this going forward, right? And also, what effect should Cerrado have on the level of maintenance CapEx of the company over the coming years? And then secondly, on the capital allocation theme, as you assess opportunities for growth ahead, would you consider another pulp expansion, right, particularly if the opportunity arises to acquire a significant amount of forestry assets from one player in locations where you already have existing infrastructure and logistics?

所以我想問你，我的意思是，我們該如何看待這個問題，對嗎？此外，Cerrado 在未來幾年對公司的維護資本支出水準會產生什麼影響？其次，關於資本配置主題，當您評估未來的成長機會時，您是否會考慮再次進行紙漿擴張，對嗎，特別是如果有機會從您已經擁有現有基礎設施和物流的地區的某個參與者那裡收購大量林業資產？

So as you know, we have guided the CapEx for the full-year 2025 at BRL12.4 billion and our maintenance CapEx at BRL7.8 billion, which is a number that you should bear in mind as a regular CapEx for the company going forward for existing operations. The additional CapEx or the discretionary CapEx will also depend on the deleveraging process of the company and also depends on the returns that these projects would have, right? All minor projects that we have approved recently at the company such as the expansion of the tissue business at Espirito Santo State and also the new fluff capacity at Limeira, for example, are projects that yield very good returns for the company.

因此，如您所知，我們已將 2025 年全年的資本支出預計為 124 億雷亞爾，將維護資本支出預計為 78 億雷亞爾，您應該將此數字牢記為公司未來現有運營的常規資本支出。額外的資本支出或可自由支配的資本支出也將取決於公司的去槓桿過程，也取決於這些項目的回報，對嗎？我們公司最近批准的所有小型項目，例如擴大位於聖埃斯皮里圖州的衛生紙業務以及位於利梅拉的新絨毛紙產能，都是為公司帶來非常豐厚回報的項目。

Caio, regarding your second question, if we are considering pulp extension as part of our strategy, as you know, we own today one-third of the market pulp for hardwood and it's also a key part of our strategy, keeping the level of relevance that we have in this market. So that's the way that we will analyze pulp extension, mainly in the mid- and long-term.

Caio，關於您的第二個問題，如果我們將紙漿延伸作為我們策略的一部分，正如您所知，我們今天擁有硬木紙漿市場的三分之一，這也是我們策略的關鍵部分，保持了我們在這個市場的相關性水平。這就是我們分析紙漿延伸的方式，主要是中期和長期的。

Alfonso Salazar, Scotiabank.

加拿大豐業銀行的阿方索·薩拉查。

Excellent. The question that I have is regarding China. And from a geographical standpoint and well, considering China situation and the risk of a trade war, the situation in Europe, where do you see growth opportunities thinking not in the next two or three years, but five or even longer term? Because I want to understand where the pulp demand is going to be strong in the next decade in case there is a stagnant market in China or a weakening market in China? Where do you see pulp demand coming from?

出色的。我的問題是關於中國的。從地理角度來看，考慮到中國的情況、貿易戰的風險和歐洲的情況，您認為未來兩三年，而是五年甚至更長時間內，成長機會在哪裡？因為我想了解，如果中國市場停滯不前或疲軟，未來十年紙漿需求會在哪裡強勁？您認為紙漿需求來自哪裡？

That would be my question.

這就是我的問題。

This is Leo here to answer your question regarding where we are seeing the future demand for pulp. As you know, we are quite bearish and optimistic on that and very constructive looking forward.

我是 Leo，將在這裡回答您關於未來紙漿需求的問題。如你所知，我們對此既持悲觀看法，又持樂觀態度，並且非常有建設性地展望未來。

So first, we have been looking and analyzing trends that are not only China-related, right? So we see tissue demand growing in several markets, mainly non-developing markets and we're seeing regions like Southeast Asian markets, for example, gaining extreme relevance and rhythm of growth compared to what they were before. So we see not only a concentration of this future growth in China, but in other markets as well.

所以首先，我們一直在觀察和分析不僅與中國相關的趨勢，對嗎？因此，我們發現多個市場（主要是非發展中市場）的衛生紙需求都在成長，我們發現東南亞市場等地區與以前相比，其相關性和成長節奏都大幅提升。因此，我們認為未來成長不僅集中在中國，也集中在其他市場。

Second, as I have mentioned during my Suzano Day presentation, there are markets like specialty papers, which are now already bigger than old markets that were very relevant, really relevant for pulp consumption like printing and writing papers, now representing more than a fourth of all the furnish of hardwood pulp. And last but not least comes -- our view comes from the movement or migration of consumption trends from softwood grades or other kinds of fibers to hardwood grades like our ECA pulp.

其次，正如我在 Suzano Day 演講中提到的那樣，特種紙等市場現在已經比以前非常相關的市場更大，與印刷紙和書寫紙等紙漿消費真正相關的市場現在佔硬木紙漿總供給的四分之一以上。最後但同樣重要的一點是——我們的觀點來自於消費趨勢從軟木等級或其他類型的纖維向硬木等級（如我們的 ECA 紙漿）的轉變或遷移。

Maybe you remember in Suzano Day, we presented that in the past, despite we have a very consistent trend of hardwood gaining market share over softwood, that rhythm was roughly 0.5 percentage points a year of market share and that increased now to 1 percentage point of market share gain every year, which if you translate that into volume, that by itself as we speak is 600,000 tons a year, 700,000 tons a year of additional demand to hardwood coming from softwood. So adding all these factors, which kind of dilute the concentration of China, we are extremely bearish looking forward in terms of pulp demand.

也許您還記得，在 Suzano Day 上，我們提出，過去，儘管硬木的市場份額一直比軟木增長，這種節奏大約是每年增長 0.5 個百分點，而現在每年的市場份額增長幅度已增加到 1 個百分點，如果將其轉化為產量，那麼每年軟木對硬木的需求將增加 60 萬噸、70 萬噸。因此，加上所有這些因素，都會削弱中國的集中度，我們對紙漿需求極為悲觀。

Lucas Laghi, XP.

盧卡斯·拉吉，XP。

Congratulations on the results. We have two questions from our side. I mean, first one regarding your FX hedging strategy, but we noticed a higher strike of the -- like the zero-cost collar options for 3Q '26 onwards, right, with the strikes of the puts even above the current BRLlevels. But if you could remind us of the rationale behind your hedging strategy, especially the range of the 40% to 75% of the hedge exceeding dollars? And if it makes sense to assume that Suzano will remain at the high end of this hedging range in the upcoming quarters given this volatile FX environment?

恭喜你所取得的成果。我們有兩個問題。我的意思是，第一個關於您的外匯對沖策略的問題，但我們注意到，例如 2026 年第三季及以後的零成本領圈選擇權的執行價格更高，看跌期權的執行價格甚至高於當前的 BRL 水平。但是，您能否提醒我們您的對沖策略背後的理由，特別是 40% 到 75% 的對沖範圍超過美元？鑑於這種不穩定的外匯環境，是否可以合理地假設 Suzano 在未來幾季將保持在這一對沖區間的高端？

And the second question, I mean, you mentioned the renegotiations on the contracts related to Pactiv's acquired assets. How should we think of the financial improvement of these operations going forward? I mean, should we already see a significant improvement in first Q '25? Or should it be more gradual throughout the year?

第二個問題，您提到了與 Pactiv 收購資產相關的合約的重新談判。我們該如何看待這些業務未來的財務改善？我的意思是，我們是否已經看到 2025 年第一季的顯著改善了？還是應該全年採取更漸進的方式？

Marcos here. So reminding you of our FX hedging strategy, we get all of our revenues, which are mainly in dollars because of our pulp export nature of the business. We subtract all of our expenses that we have in dollars. And as Aires mentioned, we have 23% of our costs which is linked to dollars which is a minor part of it.

我是馬科斯。因此，提醒您我們的外匯對沖策略，由於我們的業務性質為紙漿出口，我們獲得的所有收入主要都以美元計。我們減去所有以美元計算的支出。正如艾雷斯所提到的，我們的成本中有 23% 與美元掛鉤，但這只是其中的一小部分。

We also subtract from that whole amount all of our financial expenses and eventually maturities in dollars and even other payments as well. So we get to a net exposure of dollars. So the company always has a net exposure to dollars, which today is about $5 billion per year. Okay? So with that exposure, we tend to hedge between -- we have a policy to hedge between 40% of that exposure to 75% of that exposure up to 24 months. Okay?

我們也從該總額中扣除所有的財務支出以及最終到期的美元款項，甚至其他付款。因此我們得到了美元的淨敞口。因此，該公司始終面臨美元淨敞口，目前約為每年 50 億美元。好的？因此，對於這種風險，我們傾向於進行對沖——我們的政策是在 24 個月內對沖 40% 到 75% 的風險。好的？

So that's why we have close to $10 billion of exposure and our hedging portfolio today is around $7 billion, as we mentioned in the press release. $7.5 billion if we add zero-cost collars plus the NDF. So that's how we structure. And then you asked about if it should remain at the higher end of the range. What we have today in the market is basically two things.

正如我們在新聞稿中提到的那樣，這就是為什麼我們的風險敞口接近 100 億美元，而我們今天的對沖投資組合約為 70 億美元。如果我們增加零成本領子加上NDF，則為75億美元。這就是我們的結構。然後你問它是否應該保持在該範圍的高端。我們目前在市場上看到的基本上是兩種東西。

Theoretically, we had a very quick and sudden depreciation of BRLor appreciation of the dollar, right, in the market, which was clearly seen in our quarterly results as we -- at the end of the third quarter, we were at BRL5.45. At the end of the year, we were at BRL6.19. So whenever we had a weaker BRL, it's better for you to hedge, right, because you're hedging at a higher level. And besides that, we also have a unique combination, which is we have a very strong interest rate differential between Brazil today and the US rates.

從理論上講，市場上巴西雷亞爾貶值非常迅速，美元升值，這在我們的季度業績中表現得很明顯，在第三季度末，巴西雷亞爾兌美元匯率為 5.45。截至年底，我們的利潤為 6.19 巴西雷亞爾。因此，每當巴西雷亞爾貶值時，你最好進行對沖，因為你是在更高的水平進行對沖。除此之外，我們還有一個獨特的組合，那就是目前巴西的利率與美國的利率之間有著非常大的差異。

So that also impacts the forward level that we can hedge in the future. So given these two conditions existing in the market, I would say that they are good for you to continue being at the higher end of the range. I cannot give you a guidance how we will operate in the future, but that explains why we ended the fourth quarter at the top of the range, okay?

所以這也會影響我們將來可以對沖的遠期水準。因此，考慮到市場存在的這兩種情況，我會說，它們對你繼續保持較高水平是有利的。我無法給你指導我們將來會如何運營，但這解釋了為什麼我們在第四季度結束時達到了最高水平，好​​嗎？

Lucas, thank you for your question. This is Fabio here. I'm going to address your second question regarding Pactiv. My comments during my speech, we were able to renegotiate the commercial contracts. We got double-digit price increases with our major contracts.

盧卡斯，謝謝你的提問。我是 Fabio。我將回答您有關 Pactiv 的第二個問題。我在演講中表示，我們能夠重新談判商業合約。我們的主要合約價格均實現了兩位數的上漲。

This will come into effect -- half of this impact is going to come into effect in the beginning of the year and the second -- and we have half of the impact in the second half of the year. So it's spread out through the year. But we also were able to renegotiate our major raw material contracts and logistics and the impact of that is already seen in our costs as we renew our inventory levels from the raw materials.

這將會產生影響——一半的影響將在年初和第二年產生影響——而另一半的影響將在下半年產生。因此它會在全年範圍內蔓延。但我們也能夠重新協商我們的主要原材料合約和物流，而當我們從原材料中更新庫存水準時，其影響已經在我們的成本中顯現出來。

We have a major annual maintenance that's going to happen in April this year. So we're preparing for that. It's an old mill, as you know. So I would say that you should see more impact on the turnaround in the second half of the year.

我們將在今年四月進行年度重大維護。所以我們正在為此做準備。如你所知，這是一座古老的磨坊。因此我想說，你應該會看到下半年復甦的更多影響。

Ricardo Monegaglia, Safra.

里卡多·莫內加利亞 (Ricardo Monegaglia)，薩夫拉。

I have two quick ones. So first -- I think both to Leo. How do you see consumers' pulp inventories today? Do you think they are prone to restock in the near future or there are any factors that could prevent such move? And my second question is on wood chip prices.

我有兩個簡短的。所以首先 — — 我認為對 Leo 來說兩者都是。您如何看待當今消費者的紙漿庫存？您認為他們近期是否有補貨的傾向，或者是否有什麼因素可能阻止這種舉措？我的第二個問題是關於木片價格。

Are you optimistic on price inflation in the near future? Do you think that supply -- do you see any difference or change in supply that could stimulate such movement?

您對近期的物價上漲是否樂觀？您認為供應—您是否看到任何差異或供應變化可以刺激這種運動？

This is Leo and I'm going to answer both of your questions. First on wood chip prices starting with the last one. We follow all the prices going into this nonintegrated producers, especially Asian producers who are verticalizing into pulp as well. And what we see is that prices are not upticking as they were two years ago. So I believe they are competitive in that sense.

我是 Leo，我將回答您的兩個問題。首先從最後一個開始講木片價格。我們關注所有非綜合生產商的價格，特別是那些垂直進入紙漿行業的亞洲生產商。我們看到價格並未像兩年前那樣上漲。所以我相信從這個意義上來說他們具有競爭力。

Also, this effect that Chenming has, which is a positive effect on the paper side of the business and the consumption of pulp has obviously a negative effect on wood, right, because there is more wood availability in the region as they are not running neither their hardwood pulp mills or their mechanical pulp mills as well. So there's a little bit of, I would say, oversupply of wood chips.

此外，晨鳴紙業對紙張業務產生了積極影響，而紙漿的消耗顯然對木材產生了負面影響，因為該地區的木材供應更多，晨鳴紙業既沒有運營硬木紙漿廠，也沒有運營機械紙漿廠。所以，我想說，木屑的供應有點過剩。

As I have mentioned in other calls, we also have been monitoring -- there's a bit more wood available in China due to the housing market effect. Plus this is the final year where we see the government stimulating that some of the woodland with hardwood trees to be converted to farmland. So we should see that over by the end of '25.

正如我在其他電話會議中提到的，我們也一直在監測——由於房地產市場的影響，中國的木材供應增加。此外，這是政府刺激部分闊葉樹林地轉變為農田的最後一年。所以我們應該在 25 年底前看到這一點。

So in the short-term, I would say I wouldn't expect unless something unexpected happens as well any uptick in the wood prices to China, meaning that this competitive level that they have today should be kept unchanged. Regarding your question on consumer pulp inventories, we see that there is not really a stock formation at this time. We are monitoring the inventories in China ports and they have been trending below what we believe is a completely balanced view.

因此，在短期內，除非發生意外事件，否則我認為中國木材價格不會上漲，這意味著他們今天的競爭水平應該保持不變。關於您提到的消費者紙漿庫存問題，我們發現目前實際上還沒有形成庫存。我們正在監測中國港口的庫存，其趨勢一直低於我們認為的完全平衡水平。

I personally believe that Chinese customers specifically have stopped pulp in the 2023 cycle. And a lot of this reduction in consumption of pulp in China in '24 despite a strong year in paper production comes from a destocking of the chain in general.

我個人認為，中國客戶已經在 2023 年周期停止了紙漿生產。儘管2024年中國紙張產量強勁，但紙漿消費量的大幅減少，很大程度是由於整個供應鏈的庫存減少。

So I think that the base point in terms of pulp stocks, either in ports or in the hand of the customers, is either balanced or below a balanced level, which brings a challenge in the short-term, right, because as you can believe, every customer is trying to quickly increase their operating rates to get part of this market share left in the market by Chenming. But obviously the pulp is not there at the speed that they would like the pulp to be.

所以我認為，無論是在港口還是在客戶手中，紙漿庫存的基點要么是平衡的，要么是低於平衡水平的，這在短期內帶來了挑戰，因為你可以相信，每個客戶都在試圖快速提高他們的開工率，以獲得晨鳴留下的部分市場份額。但顯然紙漿的生產速度達不到他們所希望的速度。

I mentioned our case in my speech that we are running with backlogs here and I don't expect this to be resolved before the end of the first quarter. So I see a tight scenario in the short-term, obviously, created by unexpected factors. But the fact is that the market, as we speak, is quite tight and positive for our short-term numbers and commercial tactics as well.

我在演講中提到了我們的情況，我們在這裡積壓了大量工作，我預計這個問題無法在第一季結束前解決。因此，我認為短期內會出現緊張的局面，這顯然是由意外因素造成的。但事實是，正如我們所說，市場相當緊張，對我們的短期數據和商業策略也產生了積極影響。

I'd like to thank you for being here with us.

感謝您來到我們這裡。

I'm sorry, Beto. The Q&A session is over. I would like to hand the floor back to Mr. Beto Abreu for his final remarks. Please, Beto, now you can proceed.

對不起，貝托。問答環節已經結束。我想將發言權交還給貝托·阿布雷烏先生，請他做最後的發言。請，貝托，現在你可以繼續了。

Thank you. I'd like to thank you for being here with us today and for your interest in Suzano. And as always, our IR team remains available for any additional questions you may have. And I wish you all a great day. Thank you very much.

謝謝。我非常感謝大家今天的到來以及對 Suzano 的關注。像往常一樣，我們的 IR 團隊隨時準備好解答您的任何其他問題。我祝大家有個愉快的一天。非常感謝。

The Suzano SA fourth quarter of 2024 conference call is now concluded. The Investor Relations department is available to answer further questions you may have. Thank you and have a good afternoon.

Suzano SA 2024 年第四季電話會議現已結束。投資者關係部門可以解答您可能有的更多問題。謝謝您，祝您下午愉快。