Suzano SA (SUZ) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for holding and welcome to Suzano's conference call to discuss the results for the third quarter of 2024.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們的出席，歡迎參加 Suzano 的電話會議，討論 2024 年第三季的業績。

(Operator Instructions) Before proceeding, please be aware that that any forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs and assumptions of Suzano's executive Board and on information currently available to the company. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions because they relate to future events and therefore depends on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. You should understand that general economic conditions, industry conditions and other operating factors could also affect the future results of Suzano's and could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements.

（操作員指示）在繼續之前，請注意任何前瞻性陳述均基於 Suzano 執行委員會的信念和假設以及公司目前掌握的資訊。它們涉及風險、不確定性和假設，因為它們與未來事件有關，因此取決於未來可能發生或可能不會發生的情況。您應該瞭解，一般經濟狀況、產業狀況和其他營運因素也可能影響 Suzano 的未來業績，並可能導致結果與此類前瞻性陳述中表達的結果有重大差異。

Now I'll turn the conference over to Mr. Beto Abreu. Please, you may begin your conference, sir.

現在我將會議交給 Beto Abreu 先生。先生，請您開始您的會議。

Thank you. Hello, everyone. Thank you for attending our call for the third-quarter results.

謝謝。大家好。感謝您參加我們的第三季業績電話會議。

I will start with the highlights. So let me start with sales volumes improving as you saw in our business. And here I want to highlight that was a very well defined and commercial strategy from the team. This strong sales with a better FX allowed us a strong EBITDA of BRL6.5 billion despite the higher cash cost. Indeed, the cash cost was higher than the previous quarter and in the previous quarter in the last year, but that was planned as you know. And I want to reinforce here that considering the performance that we have been seeing at Ribas and the ramp up considering the efficiency level, which is higher than we planned, I have to say that the such a peak of higher cost is already behind us. So we will see further detail during the presentation.

我先從重點說起。因此，首先讓我談談我們業務中銷售量的提高。這裡我想強調的是，這是團隊制定的非常明確的商業策略。儘管現金成本較高，但強勁的銷售和更好的外匯政策使我們的 EBITDA 達到 65 億巴西雷亞爾。確實，現金成本高於上一季和去年上一季度，但正如你所知，這是計劃好的。我想在這裡強調的是，考慮到我們在 Ribas 看到的表現以及效率水平的提升（高於我們的計劃），我不得不說，這種高成本高峰已經過去了。因此我們將在演示過程中看到更多細節。

My last comment on the financial side is related to leverage which will -- is still declining as planned now at 3.1 and still on the leverage topic, I would like to share with you that on the capital allocation side, I do not see Suzano going through any transformational work in the near future. So leverage will keep declining. It's a clear declining trend going forward. Also during the quarter, we also had the closing of Lenzing. The closing of forestry asset from BTG that we acquired. And in the beginning of October, we also had the closing of Suzano Packaging US. So Suzano Packaging US is the former Pactiv assets in Pine Bluff.

我對財務方面的最後一條評論與槓桿有關，槓桿率目前仍按計劃下降至 3.1，關於槓桿率話題，我想與大家分享的是，在資本配置方面，我認為 Suzano 最近不會進行任何轉型工作。因此槓桿率將持續下降。這是一個明顯的下降趨勢。此外，在本季度，我們也關閉了蘭精公司。我們從 BTG 收購的林業資產的關閉。十月初，我們也關閉了 Suzano Packaging US 公司。因此，Suzano Packaging US 是 Pactiv 在 Pine Bluff 的前資產。

So looking forward, the focus of Suzano for the next quarters will be, generating value from those assets that we brought to our portfolio, delivering what we planned for this Cerrado project and also keep deleveraging the business as a whole. So that's the main highlights from Suzano in the third quarter.

因此，展望未來，Suzano 未來幾季的重點將是利用我們納入投資組合的資產創造價值，實現我們為 Cerrado 專案製定的計劃，並繼續降低整個業務的槓桿率。這就是蘇扎諾在第三季的主要亮點。

So let me hand over to Fabio which will cover the paper and packaging business.

因此，讓我將工作交給 Fabio，他負責紙張和包裝業務。

Fabio, please go ahead.

法比奧，請繼續。

Thanks, Beto, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，貝托，大家早安。

Please let's turn to the next page on the presentation. Through the combination of good commercial execution and logistics flexibility, we were able to deliver the highest EBITDA since three quarter last year despite growing operational challenge related with bottlenecks in our export supply chains. On the domestic market, according to Ibá, and print and writing demand considering imports increasing 7% in the first two months of the three quarter on a year over year basis. Sales from domestic producers grew 8% on the same comparison base. Demand was solid in all product lines supported by better economic activity and from the election cycle tailwind on the coated paper grades.

請讓我們翻到簡報的下一頁。透過良好的商業執行力和物流靈活性的結合，儘管我們的出口供應鏈瓶頸帶來的營運挑戰日益增加，我們仍然能夠實現自去年第三季以來最高的 EBITDA。在國內市場上，據 Ibá 稱，考慮到進口量，第三季前兩個月印刷和寫作需求年增了 7%。在同一比較基數上，國內生產商的銷售額成長了 8%。受經濟活動改善和選舉週期對塗佈紙品級有利的影響，所有產品線的需求均保持強勁。

Demand for paperboard continue to grow, increasing at strong 18% during the first two months of the quarter compared to the same period of last year. Paperboard demand has been strong this year in all market segments supported by the growth in paper and packaging consumption in better economy overall. In the international markets, demand was sustained in North America and Latin, higher in Europe. Demand for paper has shrunk during the summer due to seasonality. Prices in US dollars were mostly flat in international markets during the period.

紙板需求持續成長，本季前兩個月與去年同期相比強勁成長 18%。今年，受整體經濟好轉帶動紙張和包裝消費成長的推動，所有細分市場的紙板需求均表現強勁。在國際市場，北美和拉丁美洲的需求保持穩定，歐洲的需求則上升。由於季節性因素，夏季紙張需求量有所減少。在此期間，國際市場上的美元價格基本上持平。

Looking now to Suzano's figures. Our sales volume in the quarter was 8% higher year over year and 9% above Q2 performance pushed by higher sales volumes in the domestic market. Our export volumes were mostly flat versus the same period of last year and increased versus last quarter although we have seen a continuous deterioration of the container supply chain with congestions at ports, ports domestically and abroad related to poor service levels and higher costs from all container carriers. This is a result of a mix of different events. Red Sea traffic restrictions, low water level, Panama Canal, weather related restrictions at Brazilian ports which seems to be creating the perfect storm for Brazilian export companies that rely on containers.

現在來看看蘇札諾的數據。由於國內市場銷售量增加，本季我們的銷售量年增 8%，比第二季高出 9%。我們的出口量與去年同期相比基本持平，與上一季相比有所增加，儘管我們看到貨櫃供應鏈持續惡化，由於所有貨櫃承運商的服務水準差和成本上升，導致港口、國內外港口擁堵。這是多種不同事件共同作用的結果。紅海交通限制、低水位、巴拿馬運河、巴西港口的天氣相關限制似乎正在為依賴貨櫃的巴西出口公司製造完美風暴。

Suzano is seeking all alternatives to continue to serve its international customers despite these issues. The 3% net price growth over Q2 was led by slightly better prices in the domestic market in favor of FX on our exports. On a year over year comparison, prices were lower by 3.8% reflecting market adjustments after the normal price levels of the first half of 2023.

儘管存在這些問題，Suzano 仍在尋求一切替代方案，以繼續為其國際客戶提供服務。與第二季相比，淨價格成長 3% 是由於國內市場價格略有上漲，有利於我們的出口外匯。與去年同期相比，價格下降了 3.8%，這是 2023 年上半年正常價格水準後的市場調整。

Looking at the EBITDA performance, the 13% quarter over quarter was driven by higher sales volumes and better price. In the quarter, we had the annual maintenance downtimes at Limeira and Suzano mills which are the two largest paper mills Suzano have, pressuring the COGS, in line with the budget. Compared to Q3 2023, Suzano EBITDA decreased by 8% due to lower prices in both domestic -- Suzano paper and packaging EBITDA decreased by 8% by lower price in both domestic and international markets despite higher sales volumes. Looking ahead, we expect a strong seasonal demand in Q4 from our domestic market for uncoated papers and paperboard. For coated grades, we anticipate a return to structural decline as the election cycle impact fades.

從 EBITDA 表現來看，季增 13% 是由於銷售量增加和價格上漲所致。本季度，我們對 Suzano 最大的兩家造紙廠 Limeira 和 Suzano 進行了年度維護停工，這給 COGS 帶來了壓力，但與預算相符。與 2023 年第三季相比，Suzano 的 EBITDA 下降了 8%，原因是國內和國外市場的價格均下降——儘管銷售量增加，但 Suzano 紙張和包裝的 EBITDA 仍因國內和國際市場價格下降而下降了 8%。展望未來，我們預計第四季度國內市場對未塗佈紙和紙板的季節性需求將強勁。對於塗層鋼種，我們預期隨著選舉週期影響的消退，塗層鋼種將重新陷入結構性下滑。

On international developed markets, we foresee demand return to its structural decline trend. In Latin America, we expect demand to be more resilient albeit also declining. Cost-wise, logistics expenses are expected to remain high due to ongoing disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties which could offer support to paper prices in most markets.

在國際已開發市場，我們預期需求將重回結構性下降趨勢。在拉丁美洲，我們預計需求將更具彈性，儘管需求也在下降。從成本角度來看，由於持續的中斷和地緣政治不確定性，預計物流費用仍將保持高位，這可能會為大多數市場的紙張價格提供支撐。

Regarding our cash costs, we anticipate improved performance on COGS in Q4 following the lack of maintenance stoppage. We also foresee stable cash cost ex-downtimes in the upcoming quarter. On October 1, Suzano kicked off its operations of the Pine Bluff and Waynesville packaging assets acquired from the Pactiv Evergreen. Our first weeks went quite well so far, focused on supporting our new colleagues, customers and suppliers. Through this transition, we remain very excited about the business opportunities that this move will bring to Suzano in the future.

關於我們的現金成本，由於沒有維護停工，我們預計第四季度的 COGS 業績將會改善。我們也預計下一季除停機時間外的現金成本將保持穩定。10 月 1 日，Suzano 開始營運從 Pactiv Evergreen 收購的 Pine Bluff 和 Waynesville 包裝資產。到目前為止，我們的前幾週進展順利，重點是為我們的新同事、客戶和供應商提供支援。透過這次轉型，我們仍然對此舉未來將為 Suzano 帶來的商業機會感到非常興奮。

Now I'll hand it over to Leo who will be presenting our pulp business results.

現在我將把麥克風交給 Leo，他將介紹我們的紙漿業務成果。

Thanks, Fabio and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，法比奧，大家早安。

So moving to the next slide of our presentation, I would like to begin by sharing some facts related to this past quarter. It was indeed a very special moment for us as we had started to operate and later to sell the first volumes of our brand new Ribas mill. During this past month, we have first built up pulp inventories in the outbound logistics change from Mato Grosso do Sul to Santos Port in order to be able to operate Ribas efficiently. These new volumes were the only additions in the Q3 to our previously announced -- previous inventory levels which as we have been stating were quite low and stays on the same operational levels as we speak. Our first shipments from Ribas port have taken place during the latest part of the quarter.

因此，進入我們簡報的下一張投影片，我想先分享一些與上個季度相關的事實。對我們來說，這確實是一個非常特殊的時刻，因為我們已經開始運作並隨後銷售我們全新的 Ribas 工廠的第一批產品。在過去的一個月裡，我們首先在從南馬托格羅索州到桑托斯港的出站物流變更中建立了紙漿庫存，以便能夠高效地運營 Ribas。這些新產量是我們之前宣布的第三季度的唯一新增產量——之前的庫存水平正如我們所說，非常低，並且保持在相同的運營水平。我們的第一批貨物已於本季末從里巴斯港發貨。

During Q3, we have noticed quite a challenging market led especially by headwinds from China. There, paper producers' inability to increase paper prices during previous quarters squeezed their margins and the new pulp purchases came to a halt, almost a complete halt in July right when the news of the startup of Ribas and the local Chinese new mill (inaudible) were announced. As the quarter evolved, a sharp decrease in softwood prices led the way to a wave of intense price reductions in hardwood grades both in local resale markets as well as for new negotiations from imported pulp.

在第三季度，我們注意到市場面臨相當大的挑戰，尤其是來自中國的不利因素。在那裡，造紙生產商在前幾個季度無法提高紙張價格，這擠壓了他們的利潤空間，新紙漿的購買陷入停滯，7 月份 Ribas 和中國當地新工廠（聽不清）啟動的消息公佈後，購買幾乎完全停止。隨著本季的發展，軟木價格的急劇下降引發了當地轉售市場以及進口紙漿新談判中硬木等級價格的大幅下降。

Prices declined sharply much faster than in previous cycles, reaching a set point which triggered customers to reestablish their purchases especially by the end of the quarter. In Europe and North America, despite better dynamics in terms of demand, prices started to correct following the trend posted by China. We have navigated Q3 by focusing on maximizing our sales in Europe and America while also positioning pulp in these markets to cope with higher seasonal demand in Q3 and Q4 and also reestablishing our service levels to regions and customers for whom we invoice directly once cargo is shipped out of Brazil, reducing therefore our backlogs from previous quarters. This dynamic which includes the sales of Ribas first volumes resulted in a strong invoicing during the quarter.

價格下降的速度比前幾個週期快得多，達到了一個設定點，促使客戶重新開始購買，尤其是在本季結束時。在歐洲和北美，儘管需求動態有所改善，但價格開始跟隨中國趨勢進行調整。在第三季度，我們專注於最大限度地提高我們在歐洲和美國的銷售額，同時在這些市場定位紙漿，以應對第三季度和第四季度更高的季節性需求，並重建我們對地區和客戶的服務水平，一旦貨物運出巴西，我們就直接向他們開具發票，從而減少前幾季度的積壓訂單。這一動態（包括 Ribas 首批產品的銷售）帶來了本季強勁的發票業績。

Our realized prices were mostly affected by a higher concentration of our sales during the second half of the quarter once a significant price drop was already in place as well as a higher mix into Asia where most of Ribas initial volumes were sold. Despite lower prices in US dollar terms in Q3, the combination of higher volumes and favorable FX resulted in a 3% increase of our EBITDA margin now reaching BRL5.7 billion.

我們實現的價格主要受到下半季銷售集中度較高（價格大幅下降）以及亞洲產品組合較高（Ribas 大部分初始銷售量都銷往亞洲）的影響。儘管第三季以美元計算的價格較低，但由於銷量增加和外匯有利，我們的 EBITDA 利潤率增長了 3%，目前達到 57 億巴西雷亞爾。

Now looking forward, I would like to highlight the following points: coming into the fourth quarter, we forecast healthy demand in all regions due to market seasonality, consequently, favoring operational rates of paper producers globally. Tissue production rates have been the highlight in most global markets and latest production figures have shown its demand resilience despite eventual geopolitical or macroeconomic challenges. As usual in this time of the year, Chinese tissue producers are now boosting up their production as they're getting prepared for the Double 11 shopping gala. For several weeks and counting mid $500 price levels in China should have over-end profitability thresholds of marginal cost producers based on consultant estimates of their marginal cash cost delivered to China.

展望未來，我想強調以下幾點：進入第四季度，由於市場季節性，我們預測所有地區的需求都將保持健康，從而有利於全球造紙生產商的營運率。衛生紙生產力一直是大多數全球市場的焦點，儘管面臨地緣政治或宏觀經濟挑戰，但最新的生產數據顯示其需求仍具有彈性。與往年同期一樣，中國衛生紙生產商正在加大產量，為雙十一購物節做準備。連續數週，中國 500 美元左右的價格水平應該已經超過了邊際成本生產商的盈利能力門檻，這是根據顧問對運往中國的邊際現金成本的估計得出的。

Not surprisingly, we have already noticed some integrated Chinese pulp and paper producers buying market pulp since August and their purchases of market pulp have been increasing with Suzano ever since. Despite higher volumes coming into the stream, it is our belief that prices in China are either at the bottom of the cycle or quite close to it, grounded by low to equalized pulp levels, pulp inventory levels in Chinese ports and in the hands of Chinese customers, solid paper production figures being further incentivized by mid and small sized customers who have recovered their operating rates once their margins increase and above average price gap between softwood and hardwood, incentivizing fiber substitution.

毫不奇怪，我們已經注意到一些中國綜合性紙漿和造紙生產商自 8 月以來就開始購買商品漿，而且他們從 Suzano 購買的商品漿數量也一直在增加。儘管流入的紙漿數量增加，但我們認為，中國的價格要么處於週期底部，要么非常接近底部，這是由於紙漿水平較低或均衡，中國港口和中國客戶手中的紙漿庫存水平，穩健的紙張產量進一步受到中小型客戶的激勵，一旦利潤率提高，他們的開工率就會恢復，而且針葉木和硬木之間的價格差距高於平均水平，從而刺激了差距。

Customers in China and Asia are recovering their buying patterns and actually increasing order intake over historic figures. And on top of that, the fact that current price levels in Asia are below marginal cash costs of producers are likely triggering a new round of unplanned downtimes as seen in recent -- recently in latest cycles. To give you some color on our October sales in China, negotiations are coming in line with our expectations which includes Ribas volumes, and our order intake is being confirmed above historic average, which has enabled us to reestablish our operational backlogs, all of that with completely stable prices.

中國和亞洲的客戶正在恢復他們的購買模式，訂單量實際上超過了歷史數字。除此之外，亞洲目前的價格水準低於生產商的邊際現金成本，這可能會引發新一輪的計劃外停工，就像最近幾個週期中看到的那樣。為了讓您了解我們十月份在中國的銷售情況，談判符合我們的預期，其中包括 Ribas 數量，並且我們的訂單量已確認高於歷史平均水平，這使我們能夠重建運營積壓，所有這些都具有完全穩定的價格。

Looking forward and focusing on the supply side of the equation, just this week, reliable independent sources from the sector have confirmed that -- have confirmed a significant delay in the startup of the main pulp project expected for Indonesia for which the startup of the first line was delayed from Q1 '25 to November '25 and the second line for now pushed forward for 2026. In addition, I wouldn't be surprised if we should continue to see further conversions of paper grade pulp into the dissolving pulp just as again announced by a leading dissolving pulp producer to take place in Q1 2025. This factor should ground a healthier market outlook for the coming months and beginning of '25.

展望未來，關注供應方面，就在本週，來自該行業的可靠獨立消息來源已證實——已確認印尼主要紙漿項目的啟動將大幅推遲，其中第一條生產線的啟動時間從 2025 年第一季度推遲到 2025 年 11 月，第二條生產線的啟動時間目前已推遲到 2026 年。此外，如果我們繼續看到造紙級紙漿進一步轉化為溶解紙漿，我不會感到驚訝，就像一家領先的溶解紙漿生產商再次宣布將在 2025 年第一季進行的那樣。這項因素將為未來幾個月和 25 年初更健康的市場前景奠定基礎。

With that said, I would now like to invite Aires to address with you the cash cost performance of the quarter.

話雖如此，我現在想邀請艾利斯與大家一起討論本季的現金成本表現。

Thank you, Leo. Good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，Leo。大家早安。

Regarding our performance of cash production costs, I would highlight the three main factors that explain the 4% increase versus last quarter. The first of them is it's related to the higher consumption of energy at Aracruz mill due to non-recurring events that brought lower operations stability in the period. This occurrence have already been overcome and we are now back to the performance foreseen in our operation plan. The second one, they start to offer new Ribas mill in July, also cause a temporary increase in costs in this case, in the wood and chemicals components which were totally in line with the expected performance.

關於我們的現金生產成本表現，我想強調一下與上一季相比成長 4% 的三個主要因素。第一個原因是，由於非經常性事件導致該期間運作穩定性降低，導致 Aracruz 工廠能源消耗增加。這一現像已經克服，我們現在已經恢復到營運計劃中預期的性能。第二，他們在7月開始提供新的Ribas工廠，在這種情況下也導致木材和化學品成分的成本暫時增加，但這完全符合預期的表現。

In addition to these factors, the high FX although it benefits the company's cash generation also pressured the cash cost this quarter given that some inputs are linked to foreign currency. Third quarter marked the peak of the cash cost in 2024. As looking now forward to the fourth quarter, the solid progress of Ribas ramp up allow us to estimate a middle single digit reduction in the consolidated cash production costs when compared to the third quarter. In the year over year analysis, the stable performance of the cash costs can be basically explained by 14% FX depreciation in the period which offset the cost reduction obtaining the wood in turn due to better harvesting productivity, averages radius and a specific consumption and inputs mainly due to lower cost of soda and natural gas prices.

除了這些因素之外，儘管外匯匯率高企有利於公司的現金產生，但由於一些投入與外幣掛鉤，因此本季的現金成本也受到壓力。第三季是2024年現金成本的高峰。展望第四季度，Ribas 產能提升的穩定進展使我們能夠估計，與第三季度相比，合併現金生產成本將減少中等個位數。在同比分析中，現金成本的穩定表現基本上可以用期內14%的外匯貶值來解釋，這抵消了木材獲取成本的降低，而木材獲取成本的降低又是由於更好的採伐生產率、平均半徑和特定的消耗和投入，這主要是由於蘇打和天然氣價格的降低。

Moving to the next slide, I would like to share with you some important aspects about the first month of operations in -- of our new plant. In the chart on the upper left, it should be noted that we had a one-off effect of BRL25 per ton in the COGS in the third quarter, fully related to the startup cost of the new mill, which therefore no longer exists in the fourth quarter. When we look at the mills cash cost performance in the chart right below, we see that based on June's cost performance, Ribas has already started to benefit the company's consolidated cash costs since September due to the successful evolution of the plant's ramp up. It should only Ribas ramp up. At the end of the third quarter, it reached 8% completion of the learning curve above the 71% forecast for the period. And the last but not least, it's also worth mentioning that the CapEx disbursement is according to the guidance already announced by the company.

進入下一張投影片，我想與大家分享我們新工廠運作第一個月的一些重要面向。在左上角的圖表中，值得注意的是，我們在第三季度的銷貨成本中產生了每噸 25 巴西雷亞爾的一次性影響，這完全與新工廠的啟動成本有關，因此，該成本在第四季度不再存在。當我們查看下圖中的工廠現金成本表現時，我們發現，根據 6 月份的成本表現，由於工廠產能提升的成功，Ribas 自 9 月以來已開始為公司的合併現金成本帶來收益。只有 Ribas 才會增加。第三季末，學習曲線完成率為 8%，高於該期間預測的 71%。最後但同樣重要的一點是，還值得一提的是，資本支出是根據公司已經宣布的指導方針進行的。

Now I turn the floor to Marcelo Bacci who will continue the presentation.

現在我請 Marcelo Bacci 繼續演講。

Thank you, Aires, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，艾利斯，大家早安。

On the following page, page 8, we see that the behavior of our capital structure in the quarter has been shaped by some strategic capital allocation initiatives. We had a very robust operational cash flow generation. And we spent a significant amount of cash in this quarter in initiatives that had already been announced before and had its closing during the quarter, especially the purchase of forestry assets and the participation in Lenzing. And we also made a significant investment in share buybacks in the period of close to $500 million that helped lead our net debt position to $12.88 billion vis-a-vis $12 billion in the beginning of the period.

在下一頁，即第 8 頁，我們看到本季我們的資本結構行為受到一些策略資本配置舉措的影響。我們的營運現金流產生非常強勁。本季度，我們投入了大量現金用於先前已宣布並在本季度完成的計劃，特別是購買林業資產和參股蘭精集團。我們還在此期間對股票回購進行了近 5 億美元的大量投資，這使我們的淨債務狀況從期初的 120 億美元增至 128.8 億美元。

Despite the increase in the absolute amount of the net debt which was expected since we took these decisions on the capital structure side and capital allocation side, we saw a reduction in our leverage in terms of net debt to EBITDA from 3.2 to 3.1, marking the end of the investment period of the Cerrado project with a leverage ratio below what we had expected before. As I just mentioned on the previous page, the payments related to Cerrado will be minor from now on and this will help the company to continue in its deleveraging process.

儘管自從我們在資本結構和資本配置方面做出這些決定以來，預計淨債務的絕對金額會增加，但我們看到，我們的淨債務與 EBITDA 的槓桿率從 3.2 降至 3.1，這標誌著 Cerrado 項目投資期的結束，槓桿率低於我們先前的預期。正如我在上一頁中提到的那樣，從現在開始與 Cerrado 相關的付款將很少，這將有助於該公司繼續其去槓桿化進程。

In terms of our liquidity, we continue to have a significant amount of liquidity which is probably more than what we need since the Cerrado project came to the end and there has been a very significant derisking of our capital structure coming from that. So we will be working on the coming months to reduce our liquidity although we are not in a rush to do that because the market conditions today are favorable to carrying more cash. So we're going to do that according to the opportunities that we have and that we're going to see in the market.

就我們的流動性而言，我們繼續擁有大量的流動性，這可能超過了我們自 Cerrado 專案結束後所需的流動性，並且我們的資本結構風險也因此得到了非常顯著的降低。因此，我們將在未來幾個月內努力減少流動性，儘管我們並不急於這樣做，因為今天的市場條件有利於攜帶更多現金。因此，我們將根據我們擁有的機會以及我們在市場上看到的機會來做到這一點。

So with that, we -- I conclude the presentation here and I turn back to Beto for final considerations.

因此，我們——我在這裡結束演講，然後回到 Beto 進行最後的考慮。

Thank you, Marcelo.

謝謝你，馬塞洛。

A few takeaways from what we just heard from the team here. The first one, it's regarding the execution of our largest investment ever, which is the Cerrado project. So we must say that we are kicking out a new cycle with a completely different level of competitiveness and cash generation. So this is the first method here. This is -- will put us in a completely different level of resilience and despite the pricing scenario, as mentioned from Leo, we see the business completely prepared to face different scenarios in terms of price.

以下是我們剛剛從這裡的團隊聽到的一些要點。第一個是有關我們迄今為止最大的投資——塞拉多計畫的實施。因此，我們必須說，我們正在開啟一個具有完全不同水準的競爭力和現金創造能力的新周期。這是這裡的第一種方法。這將使我們處於一個完全不同的彈性水平，儘管定價情況如此，但正如 Leo 所提到的那樣，我們看到企業完全準備好面對價格方面的不同情況。

And after all the progress on the business strategy, which is related to the closing of the forestry asset deal, Lenzing and also the Suzano packaging business, we are now in the moment of extracting value from those movement and this is the focus of the company from now on.

在與林業資產交易、蘭精以及 Suzano 包裝業務的結束相關的業務策略取得進展之後，我們現在正處於從這些舉措中提取價值的時刻，這是公司今後的工作重點。

So this is a takeaway from what we heard here.

這是我們在這裡聽到的內容的總結。

Let me open for question and thank you for all of you.

請容許我回答問題並感謝大家。

(Operator Instructions) Jon Brandt, HSBC.

（操作員指示） 匯豐銀行的喬恩‧布蘭特 (Jon Brandt)。

Can you hear me okay?

你聽見我說話嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah, we can.

是的，我們可以。

Perfect. Thank you. Congratulations on the results. It was a great quarter in terms of transformation and all the initiatives that you were able to achieve. I guess my first question is really sort of a debt capital allocation question. So Marcelo, now that Cerrado is bigger with the Ribas mill coming on, is there any change to your debt policy either in terms of leverage ratios, targeted gross debt, targeted net debt? I know you briefly mentioned it in your remarks. I'm hoping you can sort of expand on it and sort of what does that mean for capital allocation?

完美的。謝謝。恭喜你取得這樣的成績。從轉型和所有能夠實現的舉措來看，這是一個偉大的季度。我想我的第一個問題其實是一個債務資本配置問題。那麼馬塞洛，現在 Cerrado 規模更大，Ribas 工廠也即將投入使用，您的債務政策在槓桿率、目標總債務、目標淨債務方面有什麼變化嗎？我知道您在發言中簡要地提到了這一點。我希望您能夠對此進行詳細說明，這對資本配置意味著什麼？

CapEx looks like it will fall in 2025 pretty substantially depending on pulp prices. So I guess I'm just trying to figure out sort of what's next, right? You should be able to come down into your targeted leverage ratios pretty quickly depending on pulp prices. So should we see sort of increased dividends, maybe share buybacks? Are there other sort of initiatives that you're working on in terms of where some of this capital could be spent? I guess that's my first question.

根據紙漿價格，資本支出似乎將在 2025 年大幅下降。所以我想我只是想弄清楚接下來會發生什麼，對嗎？根據紙漿價格，您應該很快就能達到目標槓桿率。那我們是否應該看到股利增加，或許還有股票回購？關於如何使用這些資金，您是否正在進行其他類型的計劃？我想這是我的第一個問題。

And then sort of my second question just briefly, you mentioned the pulp production, the 4% capacity reduction, I'm just wondering if we don't see a rebound in prices later this year or next year, is there any sort of other capacity that might be at risk of stopping?

然後我的第二個問題簡單來說，您提到了紙漿生產，產能減少了 4%，我只是想知道，如果今年晚些時候或明年我們沒有看到價格反彈，是否還有其他產能可能面臨停止的風險？

This is Marcelo speaking. We -- with the end of the Cerrado project and startup of the Ribas mill, we will continue and accelerate our deleverage because CapEx, as you mentioned, is reducing. We are still working on the CapEx guidance for next year, but for sure, it's going to be a lower number than this year that will be released in December.

我是馬塞洛。隨著 Cerrado 專案的結束和 Ribas 工廠的啟動，我們將繼續並加速去槓桿，因為正如您所說，資本支出正在減少。我們仍在製定明年的資本支出指引，但可以肯定的是，它將低於今年 12 月公佈的數字。

And the first I would say goal is to bring the leverage to the -- of the company back to the levels of -- that we have -- we need to have outside of investment periods, which is below 3 times net debt to EBITDA, between 2 and 3 times. And this is going to come very fast in the coming quarters. Of course, the speed will depend on the behavior of pulp prices. So this is the first priority to bring the company back to this normal level. We -- on the CapEx side, as I said, we will have in December the number for next year and this is going to be a lower number than this year.

我想說的第一個目標是將公司的槓桿率恢復到投資期間之外所需的水平，即淨債務與 EBITDA 比率低於 3 倍，介於 2 到 3 倍之間。而這一進程在未來幾季內將會迅速推進。當然，其速度將取決於紙漿價格的表現。因此，這是使公司恢復正常水準的首要任務。在資本支出方面，正如我所說，我們將在 12 月公佈明年的數字，這個數字將低於今年的數字。

We are still working on the other capital allocation alternatives. As Beto said in the beginning, at this point, we are not seeing any potential transformation initiative that could change in a material way our direction of deleveraging the company. The buybacks will continue to be an option for us. We have an open program. That's still -- we still have, I think something like 28 million shares open to be bought. This will be completed in the time frame of the program which still has more than 12 months to be completed.

我們仍在研究其他資本配置方案。正如貝託一開始所說的，目前，我們還沒有看到任何可能從根本上改變公司去槓桿方向的潛在轉型舉措。回購將繼續成為我們的一種選擇。我們有一個開放的計劃。那仍然是——我認為我們仍然有大約 2800 萬股可供購買。這項工作將在計劃期限內完成，目前仍有 12 個多月的時間需要完成。

So we're not going to anticipate to the market at what speed we're going to execute the buybacks. This will depend on the cash flow generation of the company vis-a-vis its valuation on the market. So what you can expect in terms of capital allocation is the company to be -- to reduce CapEx, to reduce indebtment in the coming months and to be very selective as we always are in terms of selecting new investments.

因此，我們不會預測市場將以何種速度執行回購。這將取決於公司的現金流量產生及其市場估值。因此，在資本配置方面，你可以預期公司將減少資本支出，在未來幾個月內減少債務，並在選擇新投資方面一如既往地非常謹慎。

On the pulp production side, the announcement that we made a few months -- a few weeks ago has in the background, the current stage of the market prices. And this is a decision that we made for the year of 2024 and even if the price changes from now on, it's going to be very hard to change that because this is a very long chain that we have to program since the harvesting activity up to the delivery to the client.

在紙漿生產方面，我們幾個月前（幾週前）發布的公告是基於當前的市場價格狀況。這是我們為 2024 年做出的決定，即使價格從現在開始發生變化，也很難改變，因為這是一個非常長的鏈條，我們必須從收穫活動一直到交付給客戶進行程式設計。

So I think for 2024, that's the number. For 2025, we are still working on that. I would just say that for the current market scenario, this is the decision we have, but of course, this will depend on the expectations that we have for the coming months.

所以我認為對於 2024 年來說，這就是這個數字。對於2025年，我們仍在為此努力。我只想說，針對當前的市場形勢，這是我們做出的決定，但當然，這將取決於我們對未來幾個月的預期。

Rodolfo Angele, JPMorgan. Okay. Left the queue. Leo Correa, BTG Pactual.

摩根大通的 Rodolfo Angele。好的。離開了隊列。Leo Correa，BTG Pactual。

Hello, gentlemen. Can you hear me?

各位先生，大家好。你聽得到我嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Okay, perfect. Yeah. So a couple of questions on my side. The first one for Beto. Beto, in your initial remarks, I guess the message was super clear to us at least that you're trying to convey a message of deleveraging and you're also trying to convey a message that there's no big M&A transformational moves in the pipeline. So I just wanted to check with you, I mean if an understanding is right, that Suzano will continue to pursue these smaller bolt-on acquisitions like you did with Pactiv and Lenzing. And the game plan is to continue to obviously to assess market opportunities, but these will be, let's say in the $1 billion range at most. I mean I just wanted to understand exactly what you mean when you say no transformational moves because I guess the market is obviously concerned on bigger M&A at Suzano.

好的，完美。是的。我有幾個問題。第一個是給 Beto 的。貝托，在你最初的演講中，我想我們至少非常清楚地知道，你試圖傳達一個去槓桿的信息，而且你還試圖傳達一個信息，即目前沒有大規模的併購轉型舉措。所以我只是想和你確認一下，我的意思是，如果理解正確的話，Suzano 將繼續進行這些規模較小的附加收購，就像你對 Pactiv 和 Lenzing 所做的那樣。我們的計畫顯然是繼續評估市場機會，但這些機會最多也就在 10 億美元左右。我的意思是，我只是想確切地了解您所說的沒有轉型舉措是什麼意思，因為我猜市場顯然擔心 Suzano 的更大規模的併購。

So if you can quantify a bit what you mean with that, I think it would be very helpful for everyone. The second point on pulp cash costs, right? I mean I think it was super clear, the explanation, on why the numbers are a bit higher this quarter. And I guess with obviously with how you're ramping up and with I mean much lower pulp cash cost platform being consolidated in your overall cash cost numbers, these numbers would decline going forward. I just wanted to confirm, and Aires, as you mentioned something in the single digit range of reduction for the fourth quarter. How are you viewing this for 2025? I mean what is the potential for further cash cost reductions in pulp? I think that would be very helpful if you can add a bit clarity on that for 2025.

因此，如果您可以稍微量化一下您的意思，我認為這對每個人都會很有幫助。第二點是關於紙漿現金成本的，對嗎？我的意思是，我認為這個解釋非常清楚，可以解釋為什麼本季的數字會略高一些。我想，隨著你們的不斷提升，以及紙漿現金成本平台的大幅降低被整合到你們的整體現金成本數字中，這些數字未來將會下降。我只是想確認一下，艾利斯，正如您所提到的，第四季度的降幅在個位數範圍內。您如何看待 2025 年的這種情況？我的意思是，進一步降低紙漿現金成本的潛力有多大？我認為，如果您能對 2025 年的情況進行更清晰的闡述，那將會非常有幫助。

Maybe I should start with the -- Aires, please complete if you want but on the cash cost, we see 2025 in the same good level as I said regarding the next quarter. So what do we have for the next quarter in the end of the day is the company delivering exactly what was planned for Ribas project, which is -- which was the 900,000 tons in the first, let's say 12 months of operation. So we are completely confident that this target will be delivered. So that will help us in terms of our cash cost next year, even further. But I think Aires already gave us a kind of let's say vision regarding that. Going back to the capital allocation process, I think you read in a very clear way.

也許我應該從——艾利斯開始，如果你願意的話請補充完整，但就現金成本而言，我們認為 2025 年將處於與我關於下個季度所說的相同的良好水平。那麼，下一季度，公司最終能否準確交付 Ribas 專案的計劃，也就是在營運的第一個 12 個月內交付 90 萬噸。因此我們完全有信心實現這一目標。因此，這將進一步幫助我們降低明年的現金成本。但我認為艾利斯已經為我們提供了一個關於這方面的願景。回到資本配置過程，我認為你讀得非常清楚。

What I'm trying to say is that we are not planning any big-ticket movement in the near future. That's what I'm trying to say. It's -- we have a lot to do with the assets that we already brought to the portfolio. We must extract all the value from Cerrado this time. We have all the potential to keep deleveraging the business. And we do not see any movement that can change significantly or in the important way the plan that we have to deleveraging the company.

我想說的是，我們近期不打算採取任何大規模的行動。這就是我想說的話。這與我們已納入投資組合的資產有很大關係。這次我們必須從塞拉多提取所有的價值。我們擁有繼續降低業務槓桿的全部潛力。我們沒有看到任何能夠顯著或從重要方面改變我們去槓桿計劃的動向。

So that's what we are trying to say. And I think Marcelo also was very clear regarding liquidity. We think -- and with this scenario, the level of liquidity that we have in the company, it's may be higher. It's very high; it's higher than we need considering the plan that we have for the near future. So that's it. I -- and regarding the way that we -- that you mentioned, the movement on US, the bolt-on strategy, it's something that seems a very, let's say healthy way to move in the US market as you mentioned. So I think this is what we see regarding transformational move in the near future. Do you want to complement --

這就是我們想要表達的意思。我認為馬塞洛對流動性的看法也非常清楚。我們認為——在這種情況下，我們公司的流動性水平可能會更高。這個數字非常高；考慮到我們近期的計劃，這個數字高於我們所需的數字。就是這樣。我 - 關於我們的方式 - 您提到的，在美國採取的行動，附加策略，正如您所說，這似乎是進入美國市場的一種非常健康的方式。所以我認為這就是我們在不久的將來看到的轉型舉措。你想補充--

Just in addition to that said, we are very confident that you are able to deliver to 2024 a double-digit reduction when we compare with the third quarter that you have the results of cash cost considering of course, the same level of FX and range price. That's very important and it impacts our costs. But considering the full ramp up in Ribas, the mix of production, on average of the year, we are very confident where they shall have a double, single digit. Of course, we have specific quarters with more challenge. We have downtimes predicted to Três Lagoas today's level as Limeira and two and the Ribas inspection shutdown. We have six months. That's very important to evaluate the assets and have the confidence to pull the campaign of 12 months.

除此之外，我們非常有信心，到 2024 年，與第三季相比，你們的現金成本結果能夠實現兩位數的下降，當然，還要考慮到相同水準的外匯和價格區間。這非常重要，它會影響我們的成本。但考慮到 Ribas 的全面成長，以及全年平均產量的組合，我們非常有信心他們的產量將達到兩位數或個位數。當然，我們有一些特定的領域面臨更大的挑戰。我們預計特雷斯拉各斯的停工時間將與利梅拉和里巴斯的檢查停工時間持平。我們有六個月的時間。評估資產並有信心完成為期 12 個月的活動非常重要。

But what to have noticed in the asset and the results and to this moment that we are running very well in a good pace and the perspectives are good.

但從資產和結果來看，到目前為止，我們運作得非常好，節奏很好，前景也很好。

Just to clarify, a double single digit to 2025 in compare with the third quarter of 2024.

需要澄清的是，與 2024 年第三季相比，到 2025 年將成長兩位數。

Caio Ribeiro, Bank of America.

卡約·裡貝羅，美國銀行。

So my first question is on the wood chip market in Asia, right, where we note the availability of wood chips has been picking up particularly in China as a result of the downturn in the property market, there's also this forest to farmland policy. And while we note integrated paper supply additions are happening, wood chip import prices into China haven't really increased recently, which also suggests that domestic wood chip availability has increased, right? So I just wanted to get your views, if possible, right, on whether you perceive this to be a structural phenomenon for the industry, right, this increase in availability of wood chips in China. And what impacts the addition of this integrated capacity that we see year after year in China will have on the industry cost curve and the demand outlook?

所以我的第一個問題是關於亞洲木片市場的，我們注意到，由於房地產市場的低迷，木片的供應量一直在增加，尤其是在中國，還有森林轉為農田政策。雖然我們注意到綜合紙張供應正在增加，但最近中國木片進口價格並沒有真正上漲，這也顯示國內木片供應量增加，對嗎？所以，如果可能的話，我只是想聽聽您的看法，您是否認為這是該行業的結構性現象，即中國木片供應量的增加。我們在中國看到的逐年增加的綜合產能將對產業成本曲線和需求前景產生什麼影響？

And then my second question is more on the softwood market and the implications there for hardwood. With some players, right, in the softwood market already attempting price hikes lately, do you perceive that we're at an inflection point for softwood, right, and what implications do you see for hardwood if that's the case? Is there room for hikes in the coming months for hardwood as well or do you see substitution into hardwood at the very least favoring a demand recovery for that fiber as well?

我的第二個問題是關於軟木市場及其對硬木的影響。最近，軟木市場的一些參與者已經開始嘗試提高價格，您是否認為我們正處於軟木的轉折點？如果是這樣，您認為這對硬木有何影響？未來幾個月硬木價格是否也存在上漲空間？或者您認為硬木替代品至少也有利於該纖維需求的復甦？

Caio, this is Leo here.

Caio，我是 Leo。

I'm trying to organize myself here to be able to answer all of them. First, regarding your question on wood chip into China or for Chinese production and you are correct. There is more availability in the short term that we had foreseen or that was planned and that in our view is due to two major reasons: first of it is the housing market downturn and obviously that released a lot of wood that was originally used for furniture, which is now being used for other products such as pulp and paper.

我正在嘗試整理自己以便能夠回答所有問題。首先，關於木片進入中國或在中國生產的問題，您說得對。短期內木材供應量比我們預見或計劃的要多，我們認為這主要有兩個原因：首先是房地產市場低迷，這顯然釋放了大量原本用於家具的木材，現在這些木材被用於生產紙漿和紙張等其他產品。

And second is a program in China that we are monitoring, and which is a conversion of planted tree area to agriculture. And this program will last until the end of 2025. We don't think it's structural. We believe that in the future, once the two end factors have leveled out, China will be more dependent on imported wood as it was before. As you know, imported wood reached 71% of the pulp wood consumed in China. And now it has reduced to 60%. Obviously, this difference being conquered by local Chinese wood. But we believe that they've transferred we should be reestablished once we see these two variables coming back to normality.

第二是我們正在監測的中國的一個項目，該項目是將種植林地轉變為農業用地。該計劃將持續至2025年底。我們認為這不是結構性的。我們認為，未來當兩端因素趨於平穩後，中國對進口木材的依賴程度將與以前一樣高。眾所周知，進口木材佔中國紙漿木材消費量的71%。而現在已降至60%。顯然，這種差異被中國本土木材所克服。但我們相信，它們已經轉移，一旦我們看到這兩個變數恢復正常，我們就應該重新建立。

The impacts of verticalization, as we have seen and during now, the Q4 and the beginning of next year, we have three or four important paper producers who are backward verticalizing. And we are going to give a lot of details on that in our Suzano Day and I -- are actually trying to forecast that and not only for the end of this year and '25 but until 2028 as well. But obviously, they are -- they will have a push in the pulp demand to market, but there are variables which are very uncertain, which is the exact startup date of these projects.

垂直化的影響，正如我們所看到的，在現在，第四季和明年年初，我們有三、四家重要的造紙生產商正在進行向後垂直化。我們將在 Suzano Day 上對此進行詳細說明，我實際上正在嘗試對此進行預測，不僅是今年年底和 2025 年的情況，而且還有到 2028 年的情況。但顯然，他們將推動紙漿市場需求，但存在一些非常不確定的變量，即這些項目的具體啟動日期。

Then obviously, the ramp up rhythms of these projects which will start verticalizing. And all of them, just to make it clear, that were announced for Q4 '24 and onwards are fully verticalized. There's no pulp drawing capacity. And so they will affect us not as competitors into pulp but by eventually reducing the demand side of the equation. Now they are all high-cost production, right? So if they are going to be based on either Chinese or imported wood into China, the cost base of this new addition will be high and we expect them to be all over $550 to $600 cash cost, I mean pulp cash cost meaning that as we have seen in several other cycles, once pulp prices get below these levels, these guys, these new volumes will also now come into market to buy pulp, creating a generation --generating additional demand for pulp as well.

那麼顯然，這些項目的加速節奏將開始垂直化。需要明確的是，2024 年第四季及之後宣布的所有產品都將完全垂直化。沒有紙漿提取能力。因此，它們對我們產生的影響不是作為紙漿行業的競爭對手，而是最終減少需求方。現在都是高成本生產吧？因此，如果它們要基於中國木材或進口木材，那麼新增的成本基礎將很高，我們預計它們的現金成本將超過 550 至 600 美元，我的意思是紙漿現金成本意味著，正如我們在其他幾個週期中看到的那樣，一旦紙漿價格跌破這些水平，這些新數量現在也將進入市場購買紙漿，從而產生對紙漿的額外需求。

Now I'm going to move into the softwood and hardwood part of your question. We believe softwood is or has reached an inflection point. We are tracking very closely what's going on in softwood into China. As I mentioned in my speech, the price decreases that we have seen in July were led by softwood and they were first happening on softwood and then followed by us in hardwood. But at this mid $700 price delivered to China, we know and as per our estimates, several producers, Canadian producers, Nordic, European producers are already below break even delivered into China.

現在我要討論您問題中的軟木和硬木部分。我們相信軟木已經或即將到達一個轉折點。我們正在密切關注軟木進入中國的情況。正如我在演講中提到的，七月價格下降主要是由軟木引起的，首先是軟木，然後是硬木。但以這個 700 美元左右的價格運往中國，我們知道，根據我們的估計，幾家生產商，包括加拿大生產商、北歐生產商和歐洲生產商，運往中國的產品的利潤已經低於盈虧平衡點。

So I believe this will force an inflection point and that's why we see this $20 price increase announcement of several of them into China coming into October and November. The first reflection of this move will be helping us even further in terms of fiber substitution. As you know, the price difference today is $200 on a net base between softwood and hardwood. And I believe if they are successful in implementing this price increase, this can increase further. And obviously, as you can imagine, we have several, several customers who are coming to our teams in China and Europe and US and Brazil and for support in terms of knowledge and guidance, in terms of how we can support them in this fiber substitution and migration from softwood to hardwood.

所以我相信這將迫使出現一個轉折點，這就是為什麼我們看到在 10 月和 11 月，幾家公司宣布將在中國市場提高 20 美元。這項措施的第一個體現就是將在纖維替代方面為我們帶來更大的幫助。如您所知，目前軟木和硬木之間的淨價差為 200 美元。我相信，如果他們成功實施這項提價，價格還會進一步上漲。顯然，正如您所想像的，我們有許多客戶來到我們在中國、歐洲、美國和巴西的團隊尋求知識和指導方面的支持，以了解我們如何支持他們實現從軟木到硬木的纖維替代和遷移。

So the first effect will be an additional demand for hardwood. And regarding your question, if this would be an inflection point for hardwood prices, I think it's too early to say. As I mentioned in my speech, I believe we're either at the bottom or very close to it. But I think we need to let a little bit of time go by so that we can define if this is a turning point or not, but the first effect will certainly be additional demand.

因此，第一個影響就是硬木的需求增加。至於您的問題，這是否會成為硬木價格的轉折點，我認為現在下結論還為時過早。正如我在演講中提到的，我認為我們要么處於底部，要么非常接近底部。但我認為我們需要等待一點時間才能確定這是否是一個轉折點，但第一個影響肯定是額外的需求。

Daniel Sasson, Itau BBA.

Daniel Sasson，伊塔烏 BBA。

Most of my questions have been answered. Maybe just a follow up from a previous question. You mentioned, Leo, the -- this some integration movements in China and the potential new capacity additions coming from them. Can you please shed some light on potential market project in Asia? I know that there's a lack of visibility or transparency. Let's put it this way. But whatever you guys have or forecast, for instance, for OKI’s expansion, I think that could help us to build our supply demand models. That could be great.

我的大部分問題都已得到解答。也許只是上一個問題的後續回答。Leo，您提到了中國的一些整合舉措以及由此帶來的潛在新增產能。能否介紹一下亞洲的潛在市場項目？我知道缺乏可見性和透明度。這麼說吧。但是無論你們有什麼或預測什麼，例如 OKI 的擴張，我認為這可以幫助我們建立供需模型。那將會非常棒。

We -- and piling up on the discussion regarding wood chips, we know that OKI 1 took maybe four or five years to fully ramp up. Do you think that despite the increased availability of wood chips because of the downturn in the housing property sector, as you mentioned, there is this chance that this project is going to be delayed or at least the ramp up is going to take much longer than what would be normal for a project like that?

我們——透過對木屑的討論，我們知道 OKI 1 可能需要四到五年的時間才能完全達到預期。您是否認為，儘管由於房地產行業的低迷，木片的供應量有所增加，但正如您所說，這個項目有可能會推遲，或者至少其產量提升所需的時間會比此類項目的正常時間長得多？

As I mentioned in my speech, I guess this is extremely recent news coming from consultants, prestige consultants to our business which we just got earlier this week, which is a significant delay in OKI 2 project. As you know, and as some of you or your colleagues have stated, the original startup date for line one was March. This is now being pushed to November 2025 and line two as of now and going into 2026. The information that we have in the project that it's supposed to be a verticalized project to begin with at 50% integration and verticalization with ivory board over 1 billion tons, printing and writing, believe it or not. And also tissue all of that in Indonesia.

正如我在演講中提到的，我想這是我們本週早些時候從顧問、知名顧問那裡得到的最新消息，OKI 2 專案出現了重大延誤。如您所知，並且正如您或您的同事中的一些人所說，一號生產線的原定啟動日期是三月。目前，該項目已推遲至 2025 年 11 月，第二條線路將推遲至 2026 年。我們從項目中獲得的資訊是，它應該是一個垂直化項目，首先是 50% 的整合和垂直化，象牙紙板超過 10 億噸，用於印刷和書寫，不管你信不信。並且還在印尼組織了所有這些活動。

But this again is all based on market information, which I believe you have the same access that I have as well. And up to now, I'm just talking about startup, right? So now we see this significant delay on startup and then there is a question of how much wood will be available and what will be the ramp up curve? I totally agree with you. We -- and our BI area tracked obviously the startup of OKI 1 and it took four to five years, I guess more five than four to reach full capacity. And that can be the case again for OKI 2. It's hard to say; again, it's always hard to estimate in the -- in too much details or what's going to happen in Indonesia or in China when it comes to pulp production due to such a difficult position in terms of wood supply. But we expect that based on the previous track records, something similar could happen as well for OKI 2.

但這又完全基於市場信息，我相信您和我一樣可以獲得這些資訊。到目前為止，我只是在談創業，對嗎？所以現在我們看到啟動時間明顯延遲，那麼問題來了，有多少木材可用，以及上升曲線是怎麼樣的？我完全同意你的看法。我們的 BI 領域顯然追蹤了 OKI 1 的啟動，它花了四到五年時間，我想需要五年以上才能達到滿載運轉。對於 OKI 2 來說，情況可能也是如此。這很難說；同樣，由於木材供應方面如此困難，我們總是很難詳細地估計印尼或中國在紙漿生產方面將會發生什麼。但根據以往的記錄，我們預期 OKI 2 也可能會發生類似的事情。

Sorry, you mentioned 55% of the OKI line would be integrated. Is that right? And then maybe the second thing still on this front, the -- do you have an estimate on the production cash cost of the recent projects in China? For instance, Liangshan. Do you have an estimate on your current cost base right now?

抱歉，您提到 55% 的 OKI 生產線將會整合。是嗎？然後也許第二件事仍然與此有關，--您對中國近期項目的生產現金成本有什麼估計嗎？比如說梁山。您對目前的成本基礎有什麼估算嗎？

Okay. Yeah. So OKI, again, Daniel, based on market information and which we have read or received through our BI teams either in China or in Brazil is that the second project for OKI 2 to start will be 50% verticalized into paperboard, printing and writing papers and tissue. So this is to start 50% verticalized, 50% market pull, okay? So that's the info OKI 2.

好的。是的。因此，丹尼爾，OKI，再次強調，根據市場資訊以及我們透過中國或巴西的 BI 團隊閱讀或收到的信息，OKI 2 啟動的第二個項目將有 50% 垂直化為紙板、印刷和書寫紙以及紙巾。所以這是開始 50% 垂直化，50% 市場拉動，好嗎？這就是 OKI 2 的訊息。

Regarding Chinese cash cost based on this unforeseen availability of wood related to the two factors that I mentioned previously, we estimate that the Chinese cash cost today is close to $500, it is maybe ranging from $490 to $510 which as you see or can note is lower than our marginal cash cost scenarios delivered to China which is at $560 to $580, showing that at this time of the production curves and which would cost to different markets. The marginal cost producers are not Chinese. Rather are other Asian. Even Americans or Europeans had delivered to China. So Chinese producers today, it is our view that have this I would say $50 advantage of cost below marginal cash cost but still at $500 range.

關於中國現金成本，基於與我之前提到的兩個因素相關的不可預見的木材供應情況，我們估計今天中國的現金成本接近 500 美元，可能在 490 美元到 510 美元之間，正如您所見或可以注意到的，這低於我們運往中國的邊際現金成本情景，即 560 美元到 580 美元，這和不同市場的生產曲線。邊際成本生產者不是中國人。而是其他亞洲人。甚至美國人或歐洲人也向中國發貨。因此，我們認為，今天的中國生產商具有低於邊際現金成本 50 美元的成本優勢，但仍在 500 美元的範圍內。

Marcio Farid, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的馬西奧法里德 (Marcio Farid)。

My first question maybe to Fabio. Fabio, thinking about the Pactiv recent acquired assets, my understanding is that profitability was not clear when you firstly acquired the assets and now that you have taken over, right, I think I mean the idea, I wanted to understand what are the initial findings so far in terms of how the news is operating in terms of obviously, it's potentially early days but what's the future of those assets, what's been Suzano doing in terms of improving the operations and eventually expand as well into the US? And your first assessment of the US markets, that would be great.

我的第一個問題可能是問 Fabio。法比奧，考慮到 Pactiv 最近收購的資產，我的理解是，當您最初收購這些資產時，盈利能力並不明確，現在您已經接管了，對吧，我想我指的是這個想法，我想了解到目前為止，關於新聞運作方式的初步發現是什麼，顯然，這可能還為時過早，但這些資產的未來會擴展到美國方面會做了什麼？您對美國市場的首次評估非常棒。

And secondly, maybe going back to the decision to twist it all 4% of the volumes, I think I had a similar question in the second quarter. But my understanding is that, I mean, the cycles are becoming shorter, right? You're talking about six months up and six months down. And the 12-month decision feels like it's always going to be like, right? Prices were at the highs of $750 at the end of last year, you had -- you did not have the opportunity to raise production because you had earlier last year decided to cut the 4% and then prices fall again. And obviously, the decision was basically maintained. So at a 12-month decision feels like it's always going to be lagging, the -- a cycle that tends to be shorter and shorter by nature, right? So how should we think about that? I mean how do you reconcile the nature of the cycle with more longer-term decision, which seems to make a lot of sense from a strategic perspective as well.

其次，也許回到扭轉全部 4% 交易量的決定，我認為我在第二季也遇到類似的問題。但我的理解是，週期正在變短，對嗎？你說的是六個月上漲和六個月下跌。而 12 個月的決定感覺就像它總是會是這樣的，對嗎？去年年底價格達到 750 美元的高位，你沒有機會提高產量，因為你去年早些時候決定削減 4%，然後價格再次下跌。顯然，這一決定基本上得到了維持。因此，12 個月的決策似乎總是會滯後，而周期本質上往往會越來越短，對嗎？那我們該如何看待這個問題呢？我的意思是，如何協調週期的性質與更長期的決策，從策略角度來看這似乎也很有意義。

It's Fabio here. I'm going to take the first one about Pactiv. Just to briefly update, we have been here. I'm currently in Pine Bluff, sitting here at the mill as we speak. We have been here since beginning of October when we transitioned the business from Pactiv to Suzano. And as you know, this is an old mill built in the 50s. And the mill Pactiv was more concerned about its converting business. So the mill lacks today a good maintenance. It needs to be well taken care of and that's what Suzano knows how to do. So there's a turnaround, a story here for us in -- on the industrial side. And we already have started with a short-term, medium-term plans in order to bring this mill back to -- into the level of operational stability that we believe we can achieve.

我是法比奧。我將首先討論有關 Pactiv 的問題。只是簡單更新一下，我們已經來過這裡了。我目前在派恩布拉夫，就坐在工廠裡，跟大家說話。自從十月初我們將業務從 Pactiv 轉移到 Suzano 以來，我們就一直在這裡。如你所知，這是一座建於 50 年代的老磨坊。而 Pactiv 工廠則更關心其加工業務。因此該工廠如今缺乏良好的維護。它需要得到很好的照顧，而這正是 Suzano 所知道的。因此，就工業方面而言，這是一個轉折點，對我們來說是一個故事。我們已經開始製定短期和中期計劃，以使該工廠恢復到我們認為能夠實現的營運穩定水準。

The first signs are very positive. A good sign is that the raw materials basket here, especially the cost of wood, it's very competitive. So there's abundant pine and also at a very competitive price in the state of Arkansas. I've been visiting some of the forest and talking to people and this is a good start. Gives us good hopes that we can have a very competitive operation here in the near future.

最初的跡象非常積極。一個好跡像是，這裡的原料，特別是木材的成本非常有競爭力。阿肯色州的松木資源豐富，而且價格非常有競爭力。我參觀了一些森林並與人們交談，這是一個很好的開始。這讓我們充滿希望，相信不久的將來我們就能在這裡擁有非常有競爭力的營運。

So right now, our focus has been on focusing our -- on the people here, the transition, focusing on taking care of our customers and suppliers and also the community that we interact here at Pine Bluff. And putting all the efforts are necessary to do the turnaround on the industrial area, focusing on maintenance and also on operational stability. But the perspective is it a positive one.

因此現在，我們的重點是關注這裡的人民、關注過渡、關注我們的客戶和供應商以及我們在派恩布拉夫互動的社區。必須盡一切努力扭轉工業區的頹勢，重點是維護和營運穩定性。但從角度來看，這是一個正面的方面。

Regarding the market, it's -- as you know, the mill, it's serving the liquid packaging market and North America is one of the largest suppliers for that specific market space. It's a good market of long-term contracts and also good prices. And it's very stable in terms of demand and price-wise as well. We're looking at opportunities to expand the portfolio to serve other markets like cup stock and food service. We do have a good product for that. We already sell a little bit to this other market space. And we want to increase as it starts in 2025. We have plans to increase our participation in this market space, which gives us more flexibility. And also, we understand that we can get even better margins serving these other market spaces.

就市場而言，如您所知，該工廠服務於液體包裝市場，北美是該特定市場領域最大的供應商之一。這是一個長期合約和價格都不錯的良好市場。而且需求和價格也非常穩定。我們正在尋找機會擴大產品組合，以服務杯裝飲料和食品服務等其他市場。我們確實有一款很好的產品。我們已經向這個其他市場銷售了少量產品。我們希望從 2025 年開始增加這一數字。我們計劃增加對這個市場領域的參與，這將為我們帶來更大的靈活性。而且，我們知道服務這些其他市場空間我們可以獲得更好的利潤。

So it's in a short view, Marcio, we're excited. We have a plan here for the turnaround and industrial turnaround of the mill. And also looking at a strategy to increase our participation in different market spaces from Pine Bluff and Waynesville.

所以從短視的角度來看，馬西奧，我們很興奮。我們有一個關於工廠轉型和工業轉型的計劃。並且也正在研究增加我們在派恩布拉夫和韋恩斯維爾等不同市場領域的參與度的策略。

Marcio, this is Marcelo speaking. About the question on the production cuts, of course, there's a lag between when we take the decision and when we can implement it because of the nature of our supply chain. But there's no other way to manage this than to look constantly at what's happening in the market, reach our conclusions about the trends on prices and then make the decisions on the production. The lag will always be there. But on the other hand, we all -- we have our tools also to try to anticipate what's going to happen in the market. So for the time being, the decision is that one and we are working on the scenario for next year. And if we have a major change in the middle, we always have the flexibility to adapt.

馬西奧，我是馬塞洛。關於減產的問題，當然，由於我們供應鏈的性質，我們在做出決定和實施決定之間存在滯後。但除了不斷關注市場動態、得出有關價格趨勢的結論並做出生產決策之外，沒有其他方法可以解決這個問題。滯後現象將始終存在。但另一方面，我們都有自己的工具來嘗試預測市場會發生什麼。因此，就目前而言，我們已做出決定，並且正在製定明年的方案。如果中途發生重大變化，我們總是能夠靈活地適應。

Rafael Barcellos, Bradesco BBI.

拉斐爾·巴塞洛斯，布拉德斯科 BBI。

So about my first question, I wanted to go back to your capital allocation strategy, Beto, I know that you mentioned during the presentation that Suzano will not do any transformational movement, but I just wanted to discuss it in more detail. For example, so after the acquisition of -- the acquisitions of Lenzing and Pactiv, could you please give us more details on which type and size of the assets that you are now looking for? And other than that, also given this lag of big M&A initiatives in the pipeline, I mean, I wanted to understand whether the company could bring a new dividend policy in the future.

關於我的第一個問題，我想回到你的資本配置策略，Beto，我知道你在演講中提到 Suzano 不會做任何轉型舉措，但我只是想更詳細地討論它。例如，在收購 Lenzing 和 Pactiv 之後，您能否向我們提供更多有關您現在正在尋找的資產類型和規模的詳細資訊？除此之外，考慮到大型併購計畫的滯後，我想了解該公司未來是否能推出新的股利政策。

And then my second question is about your investment in Lenzing. I know that it's still quite recent to ask this type of question, but I -- but you are now probably following Lenzing closely. So could you please comment on your thoughts on how you could generate synergies with these assets in the future, of course, in a scenario that you acquired the control in the future and how do you see these assets inside Suzano's portfolio?

我的第二個問題是關於您對蘭精的投資。我知道問這種問題才剛過去不久，但是我——但是你現在可能正在密切關注蘭精。那麼，您能否評論一下您對未來如何與這些資產產生協同效應的想法，當然，是在您將來獲得控制權的情況下，您如何看待 Suzano 投資組合中的這些資產？

This is Beto. Let me take the first question regarding the capital allocation. And then as you know, during the month of October, we already have the two Board members which today it's Marcelo and Carlos already sitting, they already took their position in the Board of Lenzing.

這是貝托。讓我來回答有關資本配置的第一個問題。然後，正如你所知，在十月份，我們已經有了兩位董事會成員，今天是馬塞洛 (Marcelo) 和卡洛斯 (Carlos)，他們已經在蘭精董事會任職。

So I will hand over then to Marcelo so that he can share with us his first impression regarding the business since we already had the first Board meeting at Lenzing.

因此我將把這個交給馬塞洛，以便他可以與我們分享他對這項業務的第一印象，因為我們已經在蘭精舉行了第一次董事會會議。

But regarding the capital allocation, it's very simple. What I said is that Suzano is not going to any, let's say transformational move. What I'm trying to say is that any kind of tickets, the size of ticket that we might do in the, let's say near future, will not impact on the important way our declining trend in terms of leverage. So that's what I'm trying to do. What I'm trying to say it's a -- it's very simple, it's a -- we have these two movements, when is the in Pactiv, which is for us, it's time to extract money from those. And again, a bolt-on strategy is something that we can pursue in the future, again, in the medium long term, keeping our trend of reducing our leverage. That's it.

但關於資金配置，非常簡單。我說的是，蘇札諾不會採取任何變革性的舉措。我想說的是，我們在不久的將來可能會採取的任何類型的票據、票據規模都不會對我們槓桿率下降趨勢的重要方式產生影響。這就是我正在嘗試做的事情。我想說的是——這很簡單，我們有這兩個運動，什麼時候 Pactiv 出現，對我們來說，是時候從中賺錢了。再次強調，我們可以在未來，也就是中長期內推行附加策略，維持降低槓桿​​率的趨勢。就是這樣。

This is Marcelo speaking. Just complementing on, we don't foresee any change in our dividend policy as a result of this moment that we live today. And we need to keep in mind that our cash flow generation is volatile by nature. And we have to deal with that in our -- in managing the capital structure of the company. In relation to Lenzing, we took our position as a shareholder and we, as Beto mentioned, now started to participate in the Board meetings of Lenzing. We don't have a direct impact on the management of the company. We will be shareholders with two seats on the Board.

我是馬塞洛。補充一下，我們預計我們的股利政策不會因目前的情況而發生任何變化。我們需要記住，我們的現金流產生本質上是不穩定的。我們必須在管理公司資本結構時解決這個問題。就蘭精而言，我們以股東的身份參與其中，正如貝託所提到的，我們現在開始參加蘭精的董事會會議。我們對公司的管理沒有直接影響。我們將成為董事會中擁有兩個席位的股東。

We understand that Lenzing is a company with an incredible reputation and an incredible portfolio of products, very high technology in the sector and well recognized by the clients. So the access that the company has to the most important clients in the world, the power of its brands and the reputation of the company is great. It has a very important industrial footprint, and it has to work and as it has been working on improving its operational efficiency, reducing costs and becoming more efficient over time. This is the journey that we will embark and try to help the company to continue in that direction.

我們了解到，蘭精是一家擁有極高聲譽和產品組合的公司，其行業技術水平非常高，並受到客戶的廣泛認可。因此，該公司與世界上最重要的客戶建立的聯繫、其品牌的力量以及公司的聲譽都非常強大。它具有非常重要的工業足跡，它必須努力工作，並且一直在努力提高營運效率、降低成本並隨著時間的推移提高效率。這是我們將要踏上的旅程，我們將盡力幫助公司繼續朝著這個方向前進。

And I think it's too early to go into more details. What they have been trying to do, I think is in the right direction and it is going to be up to us to try to speed up that process and extract value. And more important than that, I think starting now, we have between year one -- after completion of one year and up to the completion of the fourth year, we are going to have a window to decide whether or not we want to increase our participation and become the main shareholder of the company.

我認為現在談論更多細節還為時過早。我認為他們一直在努力的方向是正確的，而我們要做的就是努力加快這一進程並獲得價值。更重要的是，我認為從現在開始，我們將在第一年（一年結束後）到第四年結束之間有一個窗口來決定是否要增加我們的參與並成為公司的主要股東。

We're going to take our time in this beginning to understand better the -- of course, the industrial part in the beginning of the process, the dissolving part is very similar to what we do. But from that point onwards, it's a completely different process, both on the industrial side and also on the commercial side. So we need to learn before we make the more important decision that we're going to have to make in the coming months, which is whether or not we want to become controlling shareholders of Lenzing.

我們將花些時間來更好地了解——當然，該過程開始時的工業部分、溶解部分與我們所做的非常相似。但從那時起，無論從工業方面還是從商業方面來說，這都是一個完全不同的過程。因此，我們需要在做出未來幾個月內必須做出的更重要的決定之前了解情況，即我們是否想成為蘭精的控股股東。

Lucas Laghi, XP.

盧卡斯·拉吉，XP。

Good morning, everyone. Congratulations on the results. I would like to go back with a follow up question on the integration trends in China. I mean Leo, you provided very good color on the local availability of -- in China of wood chips. But I would like to go back to the imported parts of wood, especially thinking of like low-cost supplier regions like Vietnam are already closing the peak levels that we saw in 2022 but when we look at the wood chip import prices, they're still significantly lower compared to the peak that we saw two years ago.

大家早安。恭喜你取得這樣的成績。我想回過頭來問一個關於中國一體化趨勢的後續問題。我的意思是，Leo，你對中國當地木片的供應情況提供了非常好的說明。但我想回到木材進口部分，特別是考慮到像越南這樣的低成本供應地區已經接近我們在 2022 年看到的峰值水平，但當我們看到木片進口價格時，它們仍然比兩年前的峰值低得多。

So my question is, I mean, how do you see this availability of wood chips in this low-cost suppliers of wood to China? And if it's reasonable to think that the incremental volumes to feel this integration expansion in China in the coming months should come from high-cost suppliers of wood like Australia and other regions rather than a low-cost region as Vietnam. I mean is it reasonable to expect that Vietnam is reaching its limits to provide further wood chips to China and increase these expression trends that we are seeing from these verticalized players? That would be my question.

所以我的問題是，您如何看待中國低成本木材供應商提供的木片供應？並且，如果合理地認為未來幾個月中國感受到這種一體化擴張的增量應該來自澳大利亞等高成本木材供應商，而不是越南等低成本地區。我的意思是，我們是否可以合理地預期越南已經達到了向中國提供更多木片的極限，並增加了我們從這些垂直化參與者身上看到的表達趨勢？這就是我的問題。

Hi, Lucas. This is Leo here. Thank you very much for your question.

你好，盧卡斯。我是 Leo。非常感謝您的提問。

First, I would like to point that Vietnam is lower cost; not low cost, right? By the end of the day, yes, it is lower than would -- from Australia delivered to China, but it's still will bring cash costs of any Chinese producer to the low-500s to mid-500s cash cost regardless of the difference of peak to cycle to the lows that we see today. Today, we see a bit more availability in Vietnam. And despite growth in imports of imported wood as well, as you probably know, last year, there was a decline of almost 30% of imported wood into China. That's when we saw the bulk of this local Chinese wood being used in the short term.

首先，我想指出的是，越南的成本較低，但不是低成本，對嗎？最終，是的，它比從澳洲運送到中國的價格要低，但無論我們今天看到的峰值與週期低點之間的差異如何，它仍將使任何中國生產商的現金成本達到 500 美元出頭到 500 美元中段。如今，我們在越南看到了更多的供應。儘管進口木材數量也在增加，但正如大家可能知道的，去年中國進口木材數量下降了近 30%。就在那時，我們看到大量中國本土木材在短期內被使用。

This year, we already see a recovery of imports. Again, now we are growing almost 30% but still a bit lower than the levels that we saw in 2022. So we see space still of some Southeastern Asia wood supply to China. But we believe our base scenario is that once we have that two variables that I mentioned, which is housing market, reestablishing and the program that we see today in China of forest land into agriculture, which will end by the end of 2025. These structural changes will make this verticalized pulp to paper production in China or Chinese market pulp players more and more dependent of imported wood. And then we believe that we're going to see a higher cost scenario compared to what it is today. But Vietnam should still be one of the major sources to comply with the growth of demand of wood from China.

今年我們已經看到進口復甦。再次，現在我們的成長率接近 30%，但仍略低於 2022 年的水準。因此我們認為東南亞對中國的木材供應仍有空間。但我們相信，我們的基本情景是，一旦我們有了我提到的兩個變量，即房地產市場重建和我們今天在中國看到的林地轉為農業的計劃，該計劃將在 2025 年底結束。這些結構性變化將使中國這種垂直化的紙漿到紙張生產或中國市場紙漿企業越來越依賴進口木材。然後我們相信，與現在相比，我們將會看到更高的成本情境。但越南仍應是滿足中國木材需求成長的主要來源之一。

The Q&A session is over. We would like to hand the floor back to Mr. Beto Abreu for his final remarks. Please go ahead, sir.

問答環節結束。我們想把發言權交還給貝托·阿布雷烏先生，請他做最後的發言。先生，請繼續。

Yeah. Thank you. I just want to remember that we're going to have our Suzano Investor Day on the December 12. Also our visit to the Ribas project on December 13 and I'd like to thank you for being here with us on the call today and for your interest in Suzano. And as always, our IR team remains available for any additional question you may have. And I wish you all a great day. Thank you very much.

是的。謝謝。我只是想記住，我們將於 12 月 12 日舉辦 Suzano 投資者日。我們也於 12 月 13 日參觀了 Ribas 項目，感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議，也感謝您對 Suzano 的關注。像往常一樣，我們的 IR 團隊隨時準備好解答您的任何其他問題。祝大家有個愉快的一天。非常感謝。

And Suzano's SA third-quarter of 2024 conference call is concluded. The Investor Relations department is available to answer further questions that you may have. Thank you and have a wonderful day.

至此，Suzano 的 SA 2024 年第三季電話會議結束。投資者關係部門可以解答您可能有的更多問題。謝謝您，祝您有美好的一天。