Suzano SA (SUZ) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for holding, and welcome to Suzano's Conference Call to discuss the Results for the Fourth Quarter of 2022. We would like to inform that all participants will be in a listen only mode during the presentation that will be addressed by the CEO, Mr. Walter Schalka and other executive officers. After the company's remarks are completed, there will be a question-and-answer session when further instructions will be given. (Operator Instructions)

女士們，先生們，感謝您的出席，歡迎參加 Suzano 的電話會議，討論 2022 年第四季度的結果。我們想通知所有與會者在演講期間將處於只聽模式，演講將由首席執行官 Walter Schalka 先生和其他執行官。公司發言完畢後，將進行問答環節，屆時將作出進一步說明。 （操作員說明）

Before proceeding, please be aware that any forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs and assumptions of Suzano's management and on information currently available to the company. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions because they relate to future events, and therefore, depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. You should understand that general economic conditions, industry conditions and other operating factors could also affect the future results of Suzano and could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements.

在繼續之前，請注意任何前瞻性陳述都是基於 Suzano 管理層的信念和假設以及公司目前可獲得的信息。它們涉及風險、不確定性和假設，因為它們與未來事件相關，因此取決於未來可能發生或不發生的情況。您應該明白，一般經濟狀況、行業狀況和其他經營因素也可能影響 Suzano 的未來業績，並可能導致結果與此類前瞻性陳述中表達的結果存在重大差異。

Now I would like to turn the floor over to the company's CEO. Please, Mr. Walter Schalka, you may proceed.

現在我想把發言權交給公司的首席執行官。 Walter Schalka 先生，請繼續。

Good morning. Welcome, everyone, to the year results meeting that we are presenting here. We have with us here a large part of our C level that would be able to answer your further questions in the end of the presentation here.

早上好。歡迎大家參加我們在這裡舉行的年度成果會議。我們這裡有很大一部分 C 級人員，他們能夠在此處的演示結束時回答您的進一步問題。

I'm very pleased today to announce and to present to you the best ever results of our company. We are very pleased with several developments that we had with you that I'm going to share right now. In the operational side, we have flat volumes on the paper and pulp despite the fact that we have additional annual shutdowns and a retrofit in our Aracruz plant. This keeps us with inventory levels below our optimal operational levels. Leo is going to share more information with you regarding this point.

今天我非常高興地宣布並向您介紹我們公司有史以來最好的業績。我們對與您取得的一些進展感到非常滿意，我現在將與您分享這些進展。在運營方面，儘管我們的 Aracruz 工廠每年都有額外的停產和改造，但我們的紙張和紙漿產量持平。這使我們的庫存水平低於我們的最佳運營水平。關於這一點，Leo 將與您分享更多信息。

And the combination of good volumes in terms of sales and better prices lead us to a situation that we have the best EBITDA ever in the company with BRL28.2 billion. We had an operational cash generation of BRL22.6 billion despite the fact that we have short-term impact on our cash cost due to inflation on commodities and other things and other services that Aires is going to share with you additional information.

良好的銷售量和更好的價格相結合，使我們擁有公司有史以來最好的 EBITDA，達到 282 億雷亞爾。儘管由於商品和其他物品以及 Aires 將與您分享更多信息的其他服務的通貨膨脹，我們對我們的現金成本產生了短期影響，但我們的運營現金產生量為 226 億雷亞爾。

Our financial situation, it's a very strong balance sheet. We have a potential liquidity of BRL6 billion right now. Our net debt is at BRL10.9 billion with several initiatives that we had this year. We had a minor increase from BRL10.4 billion to BRL10.9 billion. And Bacci is going to share with you additional information on that. Our leverage is at 2x net debt over EBITDA right now. And we have the performance of our CapEx once again, 1 additional year in line with our guidance, then we are very pleased with that. We are a highly intensive capital company, and we need to perform on our CapEx.

我們的財務狀況，這是一個非常強大的資產負債表。我們現在有 60 億雷亞爾的潛在流動資金。由於我們今年採取了多項舉措，我們的淨債務為 109 億雷亞爾。我們從 104 億巴西雷亞爾小幅增加到 109 億巴西雷亞爾。 Bacci 將與您分享更多相關信息。我們的槓桿率目前是 EBITDA 淨債務的 2 倍。我們的資本支出表現再次與我們的指導相符 1 年，我們對此感到非常滿意。我們是一家高度密集的資本公司，我們需要執行我們的資本支出。

I'm very pleased as well to announce our best-ever results on safety performance as well and a major improvement on our culture development, mainly showing that we are preparing the company for our future. We are not only think on the short-term results, but we are preparing our future. At the end of the presentation, I'm going to share with you how we have been performing on all the strategic avenues that we announced to you.

我也很高興地宣布我們在安全績效方面取得了有史以來最好的成績，並在我們的文化發展方面取得了重大進展，這主要表明我們正在為公司的未來做好準備。我們不僅考慮短期結果，而且正在為未來做準備。在演示結束時，我將與您分享我們在向您宣布的所有戰略途徑上的表現。

Now I'm going to pass the floor to Fabio that is going to share the information regarding our Paper and Packaging division.

現在我要將發言權交給 Fabio，他將分享有關我們的紙張和包裝部門的信息。

Thanks, Walter, and good morning, everyone. Let's turn to the next page of the presentation. We are glad to announce that with solid results of the fourth quarter, we wrapped 2022 as the best year ever for the Paper & Packaging business unit. Demand for print and writing papers in carton bar has been strong in the domestic market, led by seasonal customer demand in paper packaging and the editorial segments. In the international markets, demand although solid in the quarter, has shown some signs of pulling down with much improved supply chain, leading to end on inventory replenishing in all major markets we serve.

謝謝，沃爾特，大家早上好。讓我們翻到演示文稿的下一頁。我們很高興地宣布，憑藉第四季度的穩健業績，我們將 2022 年定為造紙和包裝業務部門有史以來最好的一年。在紙包裝和編輯領域的季節性客戶需求帶動下，國內市場對紙箱條印刷和書寫紙的需求強勁。在國際市場上，儘管本季度需求強勁，但隨著供應鏈的改善，已經顯示出一些放緩的跡象，導致我們服務的所有主要市場都結束了庫存補充。

On the domestic market, according to IBA, print and write demand slipped 2.2% in the quarter when compared to fourth quarter 2021. This decrease is due to a strong comparison period last year and the reduction of print and writing papers sold into the containerboard segment, which has been minimal at the end of 2022. When we look at full figures for the year, print and write demand remained at the same levels of 2021, a positive indicator given strong reading in 2021. Robust performance of the publishing sector, office and school paper segments sustained the demand, supported by the review of previous depleted inventories, a trend that was particularly strong in the quarter. For paperboard, IBA's public data on demand shows a strong 11% increase versus fourth quarter of 2021 due to continuous consumption of essential goods and strong seasonality at this time of the year with holiday shopping. Consolidating 2022, there is a 3% increase in demand, sustaining the post-pandemic growth trends.

在國內市場，根據 IBA 的數據，與 2021 年第四季度相比，本季度印刷和書寫需求下滑 2.2%。這一下降是由於去年比較強勁以及出售給箱板紙部門的印刷和書寫紙減少，這在 2022 年底一直很小。當我們查看全年的全部數據時，印刷和書寫需求保持在 2021 年的相同水平，這是一個積極的指標，因為 2021 年的讀數強勁。出版業、辦公室的強勁表現在對之前耗盡庫存的審查的支持下，學校用紙部門維持了需求，這一趨勢在本季度尤為強勁。對於紙板，IBA 的公開需求數據顯示與 2021 年第四季度相比強勁增長 11%，原因是必需品的持續消費和一年中這個時候假日購物的強烈季節性。到 2022 年，需求將增長 3%，維持大流行後的增長趨勢。

On the international markets, as already mentioned, supply imbalances are fading, and demand has returned to historical trend, albeit still sustained a favorable price trends. Suzano's sales volumes in Q4 were 2% higher than the previous quarter and 10% below when compared to fourth quarter last year. The decrease in sales volume when compared to fourth quarter 2021 is explained by our decision to operate with lower inventory levels in order to serve the market demand, which diluted sales volumes throughout the year. When we look for annual volume 2022 sales, we're at the same level of 2021 and domestic sales represent 70% of our total sales. Our average net price during the quarter was 2% higher than our average price in Q3 and 40% higher than the same quarter last year. When looking year-over-year, our average net price increased 36%.

在國際市場上，如前所述，供應失衡正在消退，需求已恢復到歷史趨勢，但仍維持有利的價格趨勢。 Suzano 在第四季度的銷量比上一季度高出 2%，比去年第四季度低 10%。與 2021 年第四季度相比銷量下降的原因是我們決定以較低的庫存水平運營以滿足市場需求，這稀釋了全年的銷量。當我們尋找 2022 年的年度銷量時，我們與 2021 年處於同一水平，國內銷售額占我們總銷售額的 70%。我們本季度的平均淨價比第三季度的平均價格高 2%，比去年同期高 40%。與去年同期相比，我們的平均淨價增長了 36%。

As a result of revenue management and operations stability, our EBITDA has reached BRL810 million, a 47% increase on a year-over-year basis. On a quarter-over-quarter comparison, the EBITDA performance was mainly impacted by G&A costs, as explained in our earnings release. If we look at the annual EBITDA of 2022, there's a sound 50% increase when compared to 2021. During the year of 2021, we have grown the sales of our (inaudible) line by almost 2x, delivered on our target set in our last Suzano Day event. We have also surpassed the milestone of 43,000 customers directly served by Suzano, strengthening our Suzano (inaudible) business model, achieving record numbers in sales throughout our e-commerce platform.

由於收入管理和運營穩定性，我們的 EBITDA 已達到 8.1 億巴西雷亞爾，同比增長 47%。正如我們在財報中所解釋的那樣，與上一季度相比，EBITDA 業績主要受 G&A 成本的影響。如果我們看一下 2022 年的年度 EBITDA，與 2021 年相比增長了 50%。在 2021 年，我們（聽不清）產品線的銷售額增長了近 2 倍，實現了我們上次設定的目標Suzano 日活動。我們還突破了 Suzano 直接服務的 43,000 名客戶的里程碑，加強了我們的 Suzano（聽不清）業務模式，在我們的整個電子商務平台上實現了創紀錄的銷售額。

Looking ahead, in terms of demand, we expect to see markets returning to their secular trends for print and write papers and continue to grow above historical trends for paperboards. We expect more challenged market conditions in the international markets with the shrinking demand for print and write papers and more availability of supply. Domestic market seems more balanced and should be more resilient. It's worth to mention that the structural competitiveness of Suzano Paper & Package business provides a solid ground to navigate on the unforeseen market dynamics.

展望未來，就需求而言，我們預計市場將恢復到印刷和書寫紙的長期趨勢，並繼續高於紙板的歷史趨勢。隨著印刷和書寫紙需求的萎縮以及供應的增加，我們預計國際市場的市場狀況將面臨更多挑戰。國內市場似乎更平衡，應該更有彈性。值得一提的是，Suzano Paper & Package 業務的結構性競爭力為應對不可預見的市場動態提供了堅實的基礎。

Cost inflation in the last 2 years has altered the marginal cost of paper producers. And moving forward, we should expect prices to remain higher than historical levels in most markets. Now I'll turn it over to Leo, who will be presenting our business results.

過去兩年的成本上漲改變了造紙商的邊際成本。展望未來，我們應該預計大多數市場的價格仍將高於歷史水平。現在我將把它交給 Leo，他將介紹我們的業務成果。

Thank you, Fabio, and good morning, everyone. So let's please move to Page 5 of our presentation so that we can address the results of our pulp business unit for 2022, which was also a record year for Suzano's pulp business unit as well as sharing with you the results for Q4 '22.

謝謝你，法比奧，大家早上好。因此，讓我們轉到演示文稿的第 5 頁，以便我們可以解決 2022 年紙漿業務部門的業績，這也是 Suzano 紙漿業務部門創紀錄的一年，並與您分享 22 年第四季度的業績。

As you can note on the upper left graph, our 2022 sales volume was much aligned with our 2021 sales volume. Our sales volume during the fourth quarter was quite strong, also in line with the preceding quarter and with the fourth Q '21. consequently, keeping our inventories still below optimum operational levels. This sales performance was supported by a timely recovery of shipments and invoicing to Asian customers, for which we have now reestablished previous service level commitments.

正如您在左上圖中所注意到的，我們 2022 年的銷量與 2021 年的銷量非常一致。我們第四季度的銷量非常強勁，也與上一季度和 21 年第四季度持平。因此，我們的庫存仍然低於最佳運營水平。這一銷售業績得到及時恢復發貨和向亞洲客戶開具發票的支持，為此我們現在重新確立了之前的服務水平承諾。

During this past quarter, demand for paper segment in Europe performed differently among themselves. While tissue was quite strong and resilient, print and writing as well as some specialty grades, mostly related to the labor markets, faced lower order intake as distributors have started to destock. We have noticed, however, improvements in the demand of decor paper by the end of Q4. In China, low paper producers' margins, a reestablishment of logistic lead times and a negative sentiment due to the uncertainty on how the growing COVID infection rates could affect consumption going forward despite positive messages from greater opening of the Chinese market reflected in order entry at below normalized levels. Due to this prevailing scenario, we have decided to adjust our prices in Asia for December order intake, which has stimulated our customers to reestablish purchases of pulp as hardwood inventories in China were quite balanced.

在上個季度，歐洲對紙張的需求表現各不相同。雖然衛生紙非常堅固且有彈性，但由於分銷商開始去庫存，印刷和書寫紙以及一些主要與勞動力市場相關的特種紙面臨著較低的訂單量。然而，我們注意到到第四季度末裝飾紙的需求有所改善。在中國，儘管中國市場進一步開放的積極信息反映在 2018 年的訂單輸入中，但由於不確定不斷增長的 COVID 感染率將如何影響未來的消費，造紙生產商的利潤率低、物流交貨時間重新確定以及負面情緒低於正常水平。由於這種普遍情況，我們決定調整 12 月訂單在亞洲的價格，這刺激了我們的客戶重新購買紙漿，因為中國的闊葉木庫存相當平衡。

Now coming back to the slide. Our average price for 2022 was 25% higher than 2021's average price in U.S. dollar terms. And during the Q4 2022, our prices for export markets further increased to $831 per ton. Our EBITDA for 2022 totaled BRL25.1 billion, which is a new record for our pulp business unit, posting a 17% increase compared to 2021. The fourth Q '22 EBITDA performance was mainly driven by higher prices and strong invoicing performance, as I have already addressed, which led us to a 61% EBITDA margin despite cost pressures.

現在回到幻燈片。我們 2022 年的平均價格比 2021 年的美元平均價格高 25%。在 2022 年第四季度，我們出口市場的價格進一步上漲至每噸 831 美元。我們 2022 年的 EBITDA 總計 251 億雷亞爾，這是我們紙漿業務部門的新紀錄，與 2021 年相比增長了 17%。22 年第四季度的 EBITDA 業績主要受到價格上漲和強勁的發票表現的推動，因為我已經解決，這使我們在成本壓力下實現了 61% 的 EBITDA 利潤率。

Now looking forward, I would like to highlight the following points. In China, post-Chinese New Year, we have noticed quite an optimism from our customers with improving confidence levels and a general expectation that consumer confidence and spending will accelerate in the short term. Order intake in January was higher than November, December '22 levels, and in February, they have further improved, trending quite close to historic levels. In Europe, we expect that the distributors and customers destocking for printing, writing and specialty grades should be overseen consequently recovering purchases of paper. In the European tissue segment, we continue to see quite stable and resilient markets with positive downstream demand. In North America, focusing on tissue as other paper grades are mostly integrated, most major producers are reporting to be running at healthy production rates.

現在展望未來，我想強調以下幾點。在中國，農曆新年過後，我們注意到客戶的信心水平有所提高，普遍預期消費者信心和支出將在短期內加速增長。 1 月份的訂單量高於 22 年 11 月和 12 月的水平，2 月份進一步改善，趨勢非常接近歷史水平。在歐洲，我們預計分銷商和客戶減少印刷、書寫和專業等級的庫存，從而恢復紙張採購。在歐洲衛生紙領域，我們繼續看到相當穩定和有彈性的市場，下游需求積極。在北美，重點關註生活用紙，因為其他紙張等級大多是集成的，大多數主要生產商報告稱其生產率穩健。

Looking now at the supply side of the equation, we still haven't noticed additional volumes from upcoming projects being marketed as we speak. And we expect that these new capacities will reach markets gradually and possibly more significantly towards the second half of the year. When we add the full annual impact of decreasing Birch hardwood availability in Europe, we foresee a healthier as in this scenario in the short term. Also, increasing viscose prices are stimulating flex dissolving pulp producers to swing back their production towards this pulp rate. It is our view that unexpected downtimes will continue to put additional pressure on supply due to technical age of pulp producers, weather-related events, strikes as well as increasing cost pressure and availability of wood in several regions of the world.

現在看看等式的供應方面，我們仍然沒有註意到我們說話時即將上市的項目的額外數量。我們預計這些新產能將逐漸進入市場，並可能在今年下半年更加顯著。當我們加上歐洲樺木硬木供應量減少的年度影響時，我們預計短期內會像這種情況一樣更加健康。此外，粘膠價格的上漲正在刺激柔性溶解漿生產商將其生產轉向該漿率。我們認為，由於紙漿生產商的技術時代、與天氣相關的事件、罷工以及成本壓力和世界多個地區木材供應的增加，意外停機將繼續給供應帶來額外壓力。

Looking at 2023 as a whole, we see organic demand for hardwood pulp growing close to 1 million tons, which will be further increased by a restocking movement in Asia once prices get closer to marginal costs and also supported by fiber substitutions favoring hardwood grades as well as single-use plastic substitution. Despite our positive view on the short-term fundamentals, we sense that our consumers and customers' behaviors are anticipating the sentiment of future projects, which have been influencing price curves. It is worth mentioning that inflation on production costs during this past 2 years, mainly driven by higher wood costs have changed significantly the set points of decision-making of higher-cost producers, which should anchor different price levels when compared to previous cycles.

縱觀整個 2023 年，我們預計闊葉木紙漿的有機需求將增長近 100 萬噸，一旦價格接近邊際成本，亞洲的補貨運動將進一步增加需求，同時也受到有利於闊葉木等級的纖維替代品的支持作為一次性塑料替代品。儘管我們對短期基本面持積極看法，但我們感覺到我們的消費者和客戶的行為正在預測未來項目的情緒，這一直在影響價格曲線。值得一提的是，在過去兩年中，主要由木材成本上漲驅動的生產成本通脹顯著改變了高成本生產商的決策設定點，與之前的周期相比，這應該會錨定不同的價格水平。

With that said, I would now like to invite Aires to address with you the cash cost performance that we had during the last quarter.

話雖如此，我現在想邀請 Aires 與您談談我們在上個季度的現金成本表現。

Thank you, Leo. Good morning, everyone. I'm moving to the next slide. Looking first to the 2022 cash cost performance ex downtimes, as we were already seeing on previous quarter, a new and higher level was established mostly due to the exogenous impact of commodity price on wood and input costs throughout the year. Pricing alone over BRL100 over 2021 basis. The higher scheduled maintenance downtimes and labor costs also took a toll on fixed costs in the period. Nevertheless, the operational performance in 2022 was outstanding from the second quarter and on, with all mills reaching technical records and operational rates stability and chemical consumptions.

謝謝你，利奧。大家，早安。我要轉到下一張幻燈片。首先看看 2022 年不包括停機時間的現金成本表現，正如我們在上一季度已經看到的那樣，建立了一個新的更高水平，這主要是由於商品價格對全年木材和投入成本的外生影響。在 2021 年基礎上單獨定價超過 BRL100。較高的定期維護停機時間和勞動力成本也對該期間的固定成本造成了影響。儘管如此，從第二季度開始，2022 年的運營表現非常出色，所有工廠都達到了技術記錄、開工率穩定性和化學品消耗量。

Now looking specifically for the fourth quarter also ex downtimes. Although some commodities, mostly branch have provided some relief on the cash production cost, there was an increase of 6% due to to several factors, being the most important related to some one-off events in industrial plants, impacting the specific consumption of energy and chemicals. On wood costs, our greater third-party harvest operations, trade tariffs and a higher average from forest to mill distance explains the hit. Addressing now the fixed cost increase, the pressure comes from labor costs and lower production volumes, in turn to a higher downtime in our Aracruz unit impacted fixed cost dilution.

現在專門尋找第四季度也包括停機時間。儘管一些商品（主要是分支機構）在一定程度上減輕了現金生產成本，但由於多種因素增加了 6%，其中最重要的是與工業廠房的一些一次性事件有關，影響了特定能源消耗和化學品。在木材成本方面，我們更大的第三方採伐業務、貿易關稅以及從森林到工廠距離更長的平均距離解釋了這一打擊。現在解決固定成本增加的問題，壓力來自勞動力成本和較低的產量，反過來，我們 Aracruz 裝置的停機時間較長，影響了固定成本攤薄。

Looking forward to the first quarter 2023, cash production cost ex downtimes, we see a flattish performance over 4 quarter 2022 with a potential and gradual reduction in the cash cost production throughout the year, especially especially if the commodity performed better than our exceptions. In other words, different from the dynamic of service in (inaudible), we see a more stable cash production cost performance in 2023, considering the current operational plan.

展望 2023 年第一季度，現金生產成本不包括停機時間，我們預計 2022 年第四季度的表現將持平，全年現金生產成本可能會逐漸減少，尤其是如果商品表現好於我們的例外情況。換句話說，與（聽不清）的服務動態不同，考慮到當前的運營計劃，我們看到 2023 年的現金生產成本表現更加穩定。

Moving to the next slide. The (inaudible) product continues to evolve as planned in the both and the physical and the financial time lines. so that you can have a more complete view of the physical progress of the product. We have made available a short video that shows the evolution of the product. The link is in the presentation or in the IR website.

移動到下一張幻燈片。 （聽不清）產品在物理和財務時間線中繼續按計劃發展。讓您更全面的了解產品的物理進度。我們提供了一個簡短的視頻來展示產品的演變。該鏈接位於演示文稿或 IR 網站中。

Now I pass the floor to Marcelo Bacci to continue the presentation.

現在我請 Marcelo Bacci 繼續發言。

Thank you, Aires. Let's move to Page 8, where we see that our net debt moved from USD10.4 billion to USD10.9 billion during the year of 2022, especially because of the advanced dividend payment that we made in December regarding 2023 and despite the $3.2 billion that we made in CapEx and the $400 million in share buybacks. That allowed us to reach the lowest leverage ratio that we had since the Fibria merger in 2019 at 2 times. Our liquidity position continues to be extremely positive and comfortable with $6 billion, including $3.3 billion in cash. The level of maturities that we have for '23 and '24 is extremely low. And our debt is 95% of fixed rate with an average cost of 4.7% a year. That puts us in a very robust position in terms of financial stability.

謝謝你，艾利斯。讓我們轉到第 8 頁，我們看到我們的淨債務在 2022 年從 104 億美元增加到 109 億美元，特別是因為我們在 12 月就 2023 年提前支付了股息，儘管 32 億美元是我們賺取了資本支出和 4 億美元的股票回購。這使我們能夠達到自 2019 年 Fibria 合併以來的最低杠桿率 2 倍。我們的流動性頭寸繼續非常積極和滿意，擁有 60 億美元，包括 33 億美元現金。我們對 23 年和 24 年的到期水平非常低。我們的債務是固定利率的 95%，平均每年成本為 4.7%。這使我們在金融穩定方面處於非常穩固的地位。

Moving to Page 9. We show that we continue to advance in our FX hedging policy, taking advantage of the BRL volatility. We now have an operational hedges close to $6 billion in notional with an average put of BRL5.58 and another $1.8 billion of hedges related to the Cerrado project with an average put of BRL5.78. If the real continues at the current level, we can expect to have significant positive adjustments in cash in '23 and '24.

轉到第 9 頁。我們表明，我們繼續推進我們的外匯對沖政策，利用巴西雷亞爾的波動性。我們現在擁有接近 60 億美元的名義運營對沖，平均看跌期權為 5.58 巴西雷亞爾，另外還有 18 億美元的與 Cerrado 項目相關的對沖，平均看跌期權為 5.78 巴西雷亞爾。如果雷亞爾繼續保持在當前水平，我們可以預期在 23 年和 24 年對現金進行重大的積極調整。

Moving to the following page, we demonstrate the significant cash returns that we had last year. We paid BRL4.2 billion in dividends, and we bought 40 million shares in our buyback programs with a total of close to $400 million. We have just announced that 93% of the shares that we bought will be canceled, and that represents 37 million shares.

轉到下一頁，我們展示了去年的可觀現金回報。我們支付了 42 億雷亞爾的股息，並在我們的回購計劃中購買了 4000 萬股股票，總額接近 4 億美元。我們剛剛宣布，我們購買的 93% 的股份將被註銷，即 3700 萬股。

Finally, moving to Page 11. We update our guidance in terms of 2027 operational disbursement. The number that was BRL1,669 per ton in '21, reached BRL2,022 in '22. And we show here that we expect a significant reduction in the next 5 years, moving that number from BRL2,022 to BRL1,750 in '27. That movement will be achieved with the contribution from more normalized commodity prices. The effect of the maturation of the competitiveness projects that we have in our portfolio, both on the industrial and the forestry side and also the contribution of the Cerrado project that will come on stream with a lower than average total cost of production.

最後，轉到第 11 頁。我們更新了關於 2027 年運營支出的指南。 21 年每噸 1,669 雷亞爾的數字在 22 年達到了 2,022 雷亞爾。我們在這裡表明，我們預計未來 5 年會大幅減少，在 27 年將這一數字從 2,022 雷亞爾減少到 1,750 雷亞爾。這一運動將在更正常化的商品價格的推動下實現。我們在工業和林業方面的投資組合中具有競爭力的項目成熟的影響，以及 Cerrado 項目的貢獻，該項目將以低於平均總生產成本的方式投產。

With that, I'll turn back to Walter for his final considerations.

有了這個，我會回到沃爾特的最後考慮。

Thank you, Marcelo. I think we are sharing with you an outstanding year and results of the company on the last year. And I'm going to share on the last slide with you, the several activities that we have on every single strategic avenue in the last year. On the first one, that the best-in-class in the total cost vision, we have been working to increase and to buy extra land for us through the acquisitions of Parkia and Caravelas. We have been going through the retrofit Aracruz. And this year, we are going to have the better fit of Jacarei. We have a new terminal in our port, Itaqui port that would allow us to be even more competitive on that specific area. We are maintaining our relevance on the pulp of global markets, and we have been working to increase our land bank with several acquisitions preparing the largest CapEx progress sustaining and expansion CapEx program on our forest division. We had last year more than 260,000 hectares of additional area that we planned. And we have been going through the largest single line CapEx in the world right now, there is Cerrado project. As Aires mentioned to you, that we are on time and on budget. We have been advancing in the supply chain. And we have the potential acquisition of Kimberly-Clark that we are waiting as a precedent condition for the antitrust regulator CADE to approve that. And we announced a potential new project in Aracruz plant.

謝謝你，馬塞洛。我認為我們正在與您分享過去一年的出色表現和公司的成果。我將在最後一張幻燈片上與大家分享去年我們在每一個戰略途徑上開展的幾項活動。第一個，即總成本願景中的同類最佳，我們一直在努力通過收購 Parkia 和 Caravelas 來增加和購買額外的土地。我們一直在經歷改造 Aracruz。今年，我們將擁有更適合的 Jacarei。我們的港口有一個新碼頭，伊塔基港，這將使我們在該特定領域更具競爭力。我們保持與全球紙漿市場的相關性，並且我們一直在努力通過幾次收購來增加我們的土地儲備，為我們林業部門準備最大的資本支出進展維持和擴展資本支出計劃。去年，我們計劃增加了超過 260,000 公頃的土地。我們現在正在經歷世界上最大的單線資本支出，有 Cerrado 項目。正如 Aires 向您提到的那樣，我們按時並在預算內完成。我們一直在推進供應鏈。我們有可能收購 Kimberly-Clark，我們正在等待反壟斷監管機構 CADE 批准的先決條件。我們還宣布了 Aracruz 工廠的一個潛在新項目。

We have been working on new markets to expand our addressable market. We have the operations of WoodSpin with Spinnova that we commissioned beginning of this year, and we have starting up the [MSSCO] mills in Europe and (inaudible), that would create a lot of value in the textile market for us in the near future. We have the new CVC Suzano Ventures activity, and we have been working on innovation through different areas on plastic substitution that is one of our main targets. But we have been working as well on sustainability. We have been improving our ESG ratings on different entities. We have been launched the Biomas that would be a major plan of regenerating and preserving natural forest in different [biomas] in Brazil, and we have been advancing on diversity and inclusion as well. We are very happy with the development that we did and very excited for our near future.

我們一直致力於開拓新市場，以擴大我們的目標市場。我們在今年年初委託 Spinnova 運營 WoodSpin，並且我們在歐洲和（聽不清）啟動了 [MSSCO] 工廠，這將在不久的將來為我們在紡織市場創造大量價值.我們有新的 CVC Suzano Ventures 活動，我們一直致力於通過塑料替代的不同領域進行創新，這是我們的主要目標之一。但我們也一直致力於可持續發展。我們一直在提高我們對不同實體的 ESG 評級。我們已經啟動了 Biomas，這將是在巴西不同 [biomas] 中再生和保護天然林的主要計劃，我們也一直在推進多樣性和包容性。我們對我們所做的開發感到非常高興，並對我們不久的將來感到非常興奮。

Now I'm going to turn to the Q&A session where all of our C levels are going to answer.

現在我要轉到問答環節，我們所有的 C 級人員都將回答。

Ladies and gentlemen, the floor is now open for questions. Our first question comes from Caio Ribeiro with Bank of America.

女士們，先生們，現在可以提問了。我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Caio Ribeiro。

So my first question here is on the cash cost inflation in the industry. Clearly, there's been a lot of changes in the cash cost curve in the past years, particularly the wood cost component, which is a major cost component. I mean, that appears to be experiencing pressure from a number of different factors. So I just wanted to see if you could comment on some of the factors that you see impacting wood costs in the industry, whether you see these as more structural or cyclical, right? And where you see the cost support in the industry today for hardwood, right?

所以我的第一個問題是這個行業的現金成本通脹。顯然，過去幾年現金成本曲線發生了很多變化，尤其是木材成本部分，這是一個主要的成本部分。我的意思是，這似乎正承受著來自許多不同因素的壓力。所以我只是想看看您是否可以評論您認為影響行業木材成本的一些因素，無論您認為這些因素更具結構性還是周期性，對嗎？您在哪裡看到當今行業對硬木的成本支持，對嗎？

And then secondly, linked to this question, given this wood cost inflation, which we see is in part related to the higher competition for forestry assets, particularly in LatAm, where there's a number of different pulp projects under development. Just curious to see whether you believe that there's still competitive forestry assets to continue to support expansions of 1.5, 2 million tons or above projects or whether you believe that we could be nearing that point where that lower availability of forestry assets that could start limiting expansions in the industry?

其次，與這個問題相關，考慮到木材成本的上漲，我們認為這在一定程度上與對林業資產的競爭加劇有關，特別是在拉美，那裡有許多不同的紙漿項目正在開發中。只是想知道您是否認為仍有競爭性林業資產可以繼續支持 1.5、200 萬噸或以上項目的擴張，或者您是否認為我們可能已經接近林業資產可用性較低可能開始限制擴張的地步在這個行業？

This is Carlos. Thank you for your question. On the wood inflation, that can be explained mostly by the Brent, the diesel that has gone up over the last 2 years. And the second component has to do with a higher logistic cost, a higher price for the major equipment like trucks and other forest machines. Those are the 2 major components that can explain a higher wood cost.

這是卡洛斯。謝謝你的問題。關於木材價格上漲，這主要可以由布倫特原油來解釋，過去兩年柴油價格上漲。第二個組成部分與更高的物流成本有關，卡車和其他林業機械等主要設備的價格更高。這些是可以解釋較高木材成本的兩個主要組成部分。

This is Walter answering about the second point that you raised. We have been working on tracking all the potential new areas that we have for forest in South America. And our vision is that we do not have availability of wood for a short-term project in the region. I cannot tell you that it's not available for the future. We are seeing, for example, one of the Chilean companies announcing a new project in Mato Grosso do Sul for the year 2028, that would be possible to happen, but we do not believe any other project or any project coming on stream between '25, '24, there is going to be our project in '28. We believe that we are not going to see new projects coming on stream due to the lack of wood. And it's very important, as I have been mentioning to you that wood costs have been going up at a very high speed. The new projects now will face higher CapEx since the inflation that we are seeing right now, higher interest rates that we are seeing for funding this project and lower wood availability. That would become more difficult to see new projects coming on stream.

這是沃爾特對你提出的第二點的回答。我們一直在努力追踪南美洲所有潛在的新森林區域。我們的願景是，我們沒有木材可用於該地區的短期項目。我不能告訴你它在未來不可用。例如，我們看到一家智利公司宣布 2028 年在南馬托格羅索州的一個新項目，這有可能發生，但我們不相信任何其他項目或任何項目在 25 年之間投產, 24 年，28 年將有我們的項目。我們相信，由於缺乏木材，我們不會看到新項目投產。這非常重要，正如我一直向您提到的那樣，木材成本一直在以非常高的速度上升。新項目現在將面臨更高的資本支出，因為我們現在看到的通貨膨脹、我們看到為該項目提供資金的更高利率以及更低的木材供應。看到新項目投產將變得更加困難。

Our next question comes from Daniel Sasson with Itau BBA.

我們的下一個問題來自 Itau BBA 的 Daniel Sasson。

Congratulations on the results last year. My first question is related to the CapEx for the Cerrado project. I mean given the updated figures that you provided for your total operating disbursement by 2027 and the increase that came mostly on the back of higher spending on forestry and (inaudible), do you think that we can expect an increase in the total CapEx for the Cerrado project as well at some point in the future that those BRL19 billion could be revised upwards? Is it a fair assumption?

祝賀去年的成績。我的第一個問題與 Cerrado 項目的資本支出有關。我的意思是，鑑於您提供的到 2027 年總運營支出的最新數據，以及主要由於林業支出增加和（聽不清）的增加，您是否認為我們可以預期總資本支出會增加Cerrado 是否也計劃在未來的某個時候將這些 190 億雷亞爾上調？這是一個公平的假設嗎？

And my second question, I mean, given that you did post very strong results that your average maturity schedule for your debt is very long that your cost of debt is low and fixed and that you are already at 2x net debt-to-EBITDA. Do you think that you could take to the Board of Directors already any new projects after Cerrado or do you think that the correct timing for doing such an activity would be after the project is up and running, so we should see something only by the second half of 2024 in terms of new capital allocation decisions? Those would be the first 2 questions from my side.

我的第二個問題，我的意思是，鑑於你確實發布了非常強勁的結果，你的債務平均到期時間表很長，你的債務成本很低且固定，而且你已經達到 2 倍的淨債務與 EBITDA。您是否認為您可以在 Cerrado 之後向董事會提交任何新項目，或者您是否認為進行此類活動的正確時間是在項目啟動並運行之後，所以我們應該只在第二個時間看到一些東西2024 年的一半在新的資本分配決策方面？這些將是我這邊的前兩個問題。

This is Marcelo speaking. In relation to the Cerrado CapEx, the number for 2023 is given and it's incorporated in our 2023 guidance. We don't expect any major deviation from the initial number other than the normal monetary correction that we see in some countries. So that's why we keep the guidance of on time and on budget. The effects that we're going to see in the future in sustaining CapEx are incorporated in our total disbursement costs that we just announced. But that has nothing to do with the initial CapEx of the project. It's more related to the sustaining CapEx that we're going to have afterwards.

我是馬塞洛。關於 Cerrado 資本支出，給出了 2023 年的數字，並將其納入我們的 2023 年指南。除了我們在某些國家/地區看到的正常貨幣調整外，我們預計不會與初始數字有任何重大偏差。所以這就是為什麼我們保持準時和預算的指導。我們將在未來看到的維持資本支出的影響已納入我們剛剛宣布的總支付成本中。但這與項目的初始資本支出無關。它與我們之後將擁有的持續資本支出更相關。

In terms of capital allocation and new projects, this is a challenging year for us in terms of capital allocation because we have a major CapEx program already announced of BRL18.5 billion. And we have some uncertainties in relation to cash generation, given the curve that we see in pulp prices right now. So it is not the right timing to announce new projects, but a more severe correction in the market will probably bring opportunities for companies that have a robust financial situation like ourselves, and we're going to be following that very closely and bringing new potential alternatives to the Board when it's the case.

在資本配置和新項目方面，今年對我們的資本配置來說是充滿挑戰的一年，因為我們已經宣布了一項 185 億雷亞爾的主要資本支出計劃。鑑於我們目前看到的紙漿價格曲線，我們在現金產生方面存在一些不確定性。所以現在不是宣布新項目的合適時機，但更嚴重的市場調整可能會給像我們這樣財務狀況良好的公司帶來機會，我們將密切關注並帶來新的潛力在這種情況下，董事會的替代方案。

Our next question comes from Thiago Lofiego with Bradesco BBI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Thiago Lofiego 和 Bradesco BBI。

Congratulations on the all-time high results in 2022. Walter, I have a question which is similar to the one that Bacci just answered. But just looking 5 years out, right, as the Cerrado startup approaches and then looking beyond that 5 years out, what's your idea in terms of capital allocation when we think about the different business lines and potential strategies. So for instance, increasing integration through paper packaging M&A outside of Brazil or I don't know, converting lines to dissolving wood pulp. So what are the maybe the big potential ideas that we could see coming up after the Cerrado project or maybe dividends are going to be the new norm, right, higher dividends?

祝賀您在 2022 年取得了歷史最高成績。Walter，我有一個問題與 Bacci 剛剛回答的問題類似。但只看 5 年後，正確的，隨著 Cerrado 初創公司的臨近，然後展望 5 年後，當我們考慮不同的業務線和潛在戰略時，你在資本配置方面的想法是什麼。因此，例如，通過巴西以外的紙包裝併購增加整合，或者我不知道，將生產線轉換為溶解木漿。那麼，在 Cerrado 項目之後我們可能會看到哪些重大的潛在想法，或者股息將成為新常態，對吧，更高的股息？

And then the second question to Leo. Leo, you mentioned, correct me if I'm wrong, but I heard you mention that restocking will happen as prices approach marginal costs. So do you think we could see that restocking move happening already this year? Or maybe this is more of a 2024 story? And then how does your own project Cerrado play a role in this potential restocking move, there's a psychological factor there, I would say. So I just want to hear your views on that.

然後是 Leo 的第二個問題。 Leo，你提到過，如果我錯了請糾正我，但我聽說你提到當價格接近邊際成本時會重新進貨。那麼您認為今年我們可以看到補貨行動已經發生了嗎？或者這更像是 2024 年的故事？然後你自己的項目 Cerrado 如何在這個潛在的進貨行動中發揮作用，我會說那裡有一個心理因素。所以我只想听聽您對此的看法。

I think it's very clear our policy that we have been reinvesting 90% of the cash flow generation of the company into our future. The company will complete the 100th anniversary next year. And we have been investing on different scenarios of Brazil for the last many decades. I think it's very clear to us that we have the 5 different strategic avenues. Of course, I'm not going to comment any kind of future projects without a discussion and approval of our Board, but we can face organic or inorganic opportunities in the future, depending on the scenario that we are going to face. I think you mentioned many of the alternatives that we have. We have the integration into paper and packaging into tissue with higher volumes with new areas to be invested to address a new addressable market. We have been working on the textile market on the biofuels, we will look for opportunities to increase our efficiency, then we have several areas. And the base of everything is our competitiveness and our differentiation. We want always to have scale and differentiation, and we are going to pursue this basic precedent conditions for us in the future.

我認為我們的政策非常明確，我們一直在將公司 90% 的現金流產生再投資到我們的未來。明年公司將迎來100週年華誕。在過去的幾十年裡，我們一直在投資巴西的不同情景。我認為我們很清楚我們有 5 種不同的戰略途徑。當然，未經董事會討論和批准，我不會評論任何類型的未來項目，但我們未來可能面臨有機或無機機會，具體取決於我們將要面對的情況。我認為您提到了我們擁有的許多替代方案。我們將紙張和包裝整合到紙巾中，產量更高，需要投資新領域以應對新的潛在市場。我們一直致力於生物燃料的紡織品市場，我們將尋找機會提高我們的效率，然後我們有幾個領域。一切的基礎是我們的競爭力和差異化。我們要一直有規模和差異化，我們要在未來為我們追求這個基本的先決條件。

Thiago, this is Leo now. I'm answering your question about restocking and eventually how Cerrado can play a role in that. As I mentioned in my speech, we believe that the organic growth in terms of demand this year will be close to 1 million tons in terms of hardwood consumption, and that's very much aligned with most consultants to our businesses do as well. And we believe that once prices start falling and reaching closer to this higher cash cost of marginal producers, decisions will be made mainly from Asian producers in terms of either reducing their production rates or stopping their production levels and then buying pulp or also our customers restocking a bit based on their current inventory levels, which we consider quite balanced. We try to make a calculation on how much that could impact the market. And if we consider that in order to support China's paper production, on average, 1.8 million tons, market pulp is consumed in China. And of that 1.2 million tons are hardwood. every 15-day stock buildup would add an additional 600,000 tons demand for pulp over the 1 million tons of organic growth, which I have mentioned to you and also during my speech. We don't expect Cerrado to play a role in this decision-making for 2023 as it's very much specifically related to decision points or set points that will be made based on this higher cash cost of marginal cost producers, mainly in Asia.

蒂亞戈，現在是里奧。我正在回答你關於補貨的問題，並最終回答 Cerrado 如何在其中發揮作用。正如我在演講中提到的，我們相信今年硬木消費的需求有機增長將接近 100 萬噸，這與我們企業的大多數顧問的看法非常一致。我們相信，一旦價格開始下跌並接近邊際生產商較高的現金成本，亞洲生產商將主要做出決定，要么降低生產率，要么停止生產水平，然後購買紙漿，或者我們的客戶補充庫存有點基於他們目前的庫存水平，我們認為這是相當平衡的。我們試圖計算這對市場的影響有多大。如果我們考慮到為了支持中國的造紙生產，中國平均消耗 180 萬噸商品紙漿。其中 120 萬噸是硬木。每 15 天的庫存增加將在 100 萬噸有機增長的基礎上增加 60 萬噸紙漿需求，我已經向你們以及我的演講中提到了這一點。我們預計 Cerrado 不會在 2023 年的決策中發揮作用，因為它與決策點或設定點非常相關，這些決策點或設定點將基於邊際成本生產商（主要在亞洲）的較高現金成本而製定。

If I may hear, what's your view on the marginal cost in the market right now, you had been mentioning $600 per ton recently. Does that still hold? And if you could repeat the rationale of the 600,000 tons, I would appreciate it.

如果我能聽到，你對目前市場的邊際成本有何看法，你最近提到每噸 600 美元。這還成立嗎？如果你能重複 600,000 噸的理由，我將不勝感激。

Okay. So first, starting with the last part, the rationale of the 600,000 tons, the China paper production and the China paper industry requires a furnish of 1.8 million to 2 million tons a month of chemical pulp in order for them to be operating at the current capacity levels. Of this 1.8 million to 2 million tons, 1.2 million tons are hardwood. So every month, roughly and on average, 1.2 million tons are imported or consumed of hardwood market pulp in China. So if we consider a 15-day stock buildup, that would mean an additional 600,000 tons of hardwood considering this monthly consumption of 1.2 million tons. Now coming into our view on marginal cash costs, as we have been pointing since earlier last year, cost inflation for pulp producers have changed significantly at the cost levels. And we forecast that the cash cost for marginal cost producers is indeed around $600, varying from USD580 to USD610, USD650 depending on the base scenario that we use. This all obviously on a CIF China base. And our view is quite consistent with this number. We don't see a lot of variation because as we all know, wood is the main variable in the pulp cash cost, and we expect that availability for wood will still be limited mainly on this or for this Asian producers and prices will maintain the high price points that they are being traded at today.

好的。那麼首先，從最後一部分開始，60萬噸的基本原理，中國造紙業和中國造紙業需要每月提供180萬到200萬噸的化學紙漿，才能在目前的情況下運作。能力水平。在這 180 萬噸到 200 萬噸中，有 120 萬噸是硬木。因此，中國每月大約平均進口或消費 120 萬噸闊葉木商品漿。因此，如果我們考慮 15 天的庫存增加，考慮到每月 120 萬噸的消費量，這將意味著額外的 60 萬噸闊葉木。現在進入我們對邊際現金成本的看法，正如我們自去年早些時候以來一直指出的那樣，紙漿生產商的成本通脹在成本水平上發生了顯著變化。我們預測邊際成本生產者的現金成本確實在 600 美元左右，從 580 美元到 610 美元不等，650 美元取決於我們使用的基本情景。這一切顯然都在 CIF 中國基地。而我們的觀點與這個數字是相當一致的。我們沒有看到太多變化，因為眾所周知，木材是紙漿現金成本的主要變量，我們預計木材的供應量仍將主要受限於此或亞洲生產商，價格將保持他們今天交易的高價位。

Our next question comes from Rafael Barcellos with Santander.

我們的下一個問題來自桑坦德銀行的 Rafael Barcellos。

My first question is about pulp supply availability. So dissolving pulp prices have increased in recent months. So my question is, do you believe that mills could move production back to dissolving pulp in the coming months? And how much hardwood pulp could be removed from the market if these movement really materialize?

我的第一個問題是關於紙漿供應的可用性。因此，最近幾個月溶解漿價格有所上漲。所以我的問題是，您認為工廠可以在未來幾個月內將生產轉回溶解漿嗎？如果這些運動真的成為現實，有多少硬木紙漿可以從市場上消失？

And my second question is about pulp affordability. I mean, how do you see pulp affordability in China now, particularly considering that pulp prices have fallen by more than $100 over the past few months and consumer effect has also helped this equation. So is pulp affordability still a concern among market participants?

我的第二個問題是關於紙漿的可負擔性。我的意思是，您如何看待中國現在紙漿的可負擔性，尤其是考慮到紙漿價格在過去幾個月中下跌了 100 多美元，而且消費者效應也幫助了這個等式。那麼紙漿的可負擔性是否仍然是市場參與者關注的問題？

Rafael, this is Leo again here to answer both of your questions. First on the dissolving flex capacity. What we have been seeing is that viscose prices are trending up since the beginning of the year, and that is indeed stimulating some dissolving flex producers to move away from paper grade pulp and turn their assets into dissolving rates. Based on our estimates, there are around 2 million tons globally of flex capacity of paper-grade hardwood that can be converted into dissolving wood pulp production. We don't see obviously all of that being converted at once, but we see already movements in that direction taking place as well as we heard from our customers, the test from a major producer in one of their large paper lines towards this grade as well, more than 30-day production trial, which indicates more movements in this sense.

Rafael，我又是 Leo，來回答你的兩個問題。首先是溶解彈性容量。我們一直看到的是，自年初以來粘膠價格呈上漲趨勢，這確實刺激了一些溶解性柔性生產商放棄紙級紙漿並將其資產轉化為溶解率。根據我們的估計，全球約有 200 萬噸紙級硬木的彈性產能可以轉化為溶解木漿生產。我們顯然沒有看到所有這些都立即轉換，但我們已經看到朝這個方向發生的變化以及我們從客戶那裡聽到的消息，一家主要生產商在他們的大型造紙生產線之一對這一等級的測試嗯，30多天的試產，說明這個意義上的動作比較多。

Regarding affordability, as I mentioned, we don't see in the short-term fundamentals for such movements that have been taking place. Therefore, we believe that most of this is already in anticipation of future demand that our future supply that will come into place. But in our view, this is more towards the second half of the year. And obviously, falling prices are stimulating again consumption of hardwood by Chinese or Asian paper producers. As I have mentioned, January's order intake, at least for Suzano already higher than November, December levels. February were higher than January levels, very close to already historic levels, and we expect that during the next week, the order intake will be already reaching normalized levels.

關於負擔能力，正如我所提到的，我們在短期基本面中看不到這種已經發生的變化。因此，我們認為，這其中大部分已經在預期未來的需求，即我們未來的供應將會到位。但我們認為，這更多是在下半年。顯然，價格下跌再次刺激了中國或亞洲造紙商對闊葉木的消費。正如我所提到的，至少對於 Suzano 來說，1 月份的訂單量已經高於 11 月、12 月的水平。 2 月高於 1 月的水平，非常接近歷史水平，我們預計在下週，訂單量將已經達到正常水平。

Our next question comes from Marcio Farid with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Marcio Farid。

So a couple of questions on my side, please. The first one on the paper side, Fabio, if you can comment, how you're seeing this and especially in Europe as well, which is kind of the benchmark for graphic papers. Obviously, a very good couple of years. It feels like we are seeing some sort of normalization now in terms of prices and volumes. Can we please have some visibility on that?

所以請問我這邊的幾個問題。第一個在紙張方面，法比奧，如果你能發表評論，你是如何看待這一點的，尤其是在歐洲，這是圖形紙的基準。顯然，這是非常好的幾年。感覺我們現在在價格和數量方面看到了某種正常化。我們可以對此有所了解嗎？

And then maybe to (inaudible), Carlos you briefly mentioned about the wood inflation cost in Brazil and the reasons behind it. Can we talk a little bit about supply-demand conditions for land and the different regions? I mean an overall view of how you're seeing the wood market perform in Brazil and how it has changed, especially in the past 2 to 3 years in line of growing competition for land and for forest pretty much mostly in the southeast of Brazil, but pretty much everywhere really. And then maybe Leo, it does feel like you mentioned 1 million ton demand growth potential for this year and then potential restocking if prices go to marginal cost of around 580 to 600. So question is, what do you think, I mean, considering that you mentioned that the incremental volumes from especially (inaudible) reaching the market. So when they do, then there is a chance that we might see those prices going down to marginal cost. My question is, what do you think would prevent prices from going there in the cycle? What are the pockets of strength on the market you're seeing today or expect to see in the next few months?

然後可能是（聽不清）卡洛斯，你簡要提到了巴西的木材通脹成本及其背後的原因。我們能談談土地和不同地區的供求情況嗎？我的意思是全面了解您如何看待巴西木材市場的表現及其變化，尤其是在過去 2 到 3 年中，隨著對土地和森林的競爭日益激烈，這些競爭幾乎主要發生在巴西東南部，但實際上幾乎無處不在。然後也許 Leo，你確實提到了今年 100 萬噸的需求增長潛力，然後如果價格達到 580 到 600 左右的邊際成本，則可能會重新進貨。所以問題是，你怎麼看，我的意思是，考慮到這一點你提到特別是（聽不清）進入市場的增量數量。因此，當他們這樣做時，我們就有可能看到這些價格下降到邊際成本。我的問題是，您認為什麼會阻止價格在周期中到達那裡？您今天看到或預計在未來幾個月看到的市場優勢是什麼？

Marcio, this is Carlos. Thank you for your question. We do recognize a growing competition for land and wood in some specific regions, and that has meant higher wood prices. So that is really happening in some specific regions. As we speak, we still have some ongoing discussions and negotiations related to forest assets, related to wood and for the benefit of our shareholders, at least as we speak, we cannot share much information about that. Once we conclude our program, we can come back to this point.

馬爾西奧，這是卡洛斯。謝謝你的問題。我們確實認識到某些特定地區對土地和木材的競爭日益激烈，這意味著更高的木材價格。所以這在某些特定地區確實發生了。在我們說話的時候，我們仍在進行一些與森林資產、木材相關的討論和談判，為了我們股東的利益，至少在我們說話的時候，我們不能分享太多關於這方面的信息。一旦我們結束了我們的計劃，我們就可以回到這一點。

Marcio, it's Fabio here. Thanks for your question on the paper side. We see different behaviors in different markets. As you know, China is coming out of Chinese New Year. So activity there is improving. We see higher consumption and operating rates from most of the paper mills. Leo was talking about linked with our higher consumption of pulp in the past weeks that we have seen. And you're right, in Europe, in North America, we have seen a little bit of cooling down. This is in reflect of higher stock levels in the chain. As you know, during the past few years, we have had some supply chain constraints that we're easing over the end of the last year. And with that, stocks are a little bit higher throughout the chains in Europe and U.S. But although we have seen stocks higher than the optimum levels, which we leave would take a few weeks to normalize a few weeks or months to normalize. We don't see prices moving downwards. Prices are quite stable in Europe and North America at a very quite a good level as you may see from the consultant companies in the market. And this is due to higher cash costs in these regions as well with inflation that has happened in the past few years. So we have seen prices being resilient in these major markets. Although stocks are at a higher level with the destocking waiting to happen in the next month or so.

馬爾西奧，我是法比奧。感謝您在紙張方面的問題。我們在不同的市場看到了不同的行為。如你所知，中國即將走出農曆新年。所以那裡的活動正在改善。我們看到大多數造紙廠的消耗量和開工率都有所提高。 Leo 談論的是我們在過去幾週看到的與紙漿消耗量增加有關的問題。你是對的，在歐洲，在北美，我們看到了一點點降溫。這反映了供應鏈中較高的庫存水平。如您所知，在過去幾年中，我們在去年年底放寬了一些供應鏈限制。因此，歐洲和美國整個連鎖店的庫存略高。但是，儘管我們看到庫存高於最佳水平，但我們需要幾週時間才能正常化，幾週或幾個月才能正常化。我們沒有看到價格向下移動。正如您從市場上的諮詢公司看到的那樣，歐洲和北美的價格非常穩定，處於非常好的水平。這是由於這些地區較高的現金成本以及過去幾年發生的通貨膨脹。因此，我們看到這些主要市場的價格具有彈性。儘管庫存處於較高水平，但去庫存將在下個月左右發生。

To close the answers to your question addressing the positive view, right, what could possibly prevent prices from falling down to marginal cost. I think we can split the answer into first, looking at demand. Obviously, we observe a lot more optimism in China. We also observe a lot of economic stimulus plans now on province levels, which can generate further demand and also linked to paper products and packaging products and also better-than-expected European consumption post this destocking movement that's going on and that can last some more weeks ahead of us. So this could bring a positive surprise in terms of demand. I would say that the most impactful will be actually how China performs once all this optimism and stimulus plans come into play.

結束你的問題的答案，解決積極的觀點，正確的，什麼可能阻止價格下降到邊際成本。我認為我們可以首先將答案分解為看需求。顯然，我們觀察到中國的樂觀情緒要高得多。我們還觀察到許多省級的經濟刺激計劃，這些計劃可以產生更多的需求，並且與紙製品和包裝產品有關，而且在正在進行的去庫存運動之後，歐洲消費也好於預期，而且可能會持續更長時間比我們早幾週。因此，這可能會在需求方面帶來積極的驚喜。我想說，一旦所有這些樂觀情緒和刺激計劃發揮作用，最具影響力的實際上將是中國的表現。

On the supply side, what can prevent prices from going there. First, our new delays and time to market of projects, which have not been unusual as we have seen in the last months and quarters, right? So it's very unclear for us really and actually when we're going to see a good quality pulp being offered to markets and then how that's going to be ramped up. And as I mentioned, up to now, we have seen absolutely no offers from these new players or capacity coming on board. And second, which is very important, and I always like to highlight that is the impact that unplanned downtimes have been taken in our sector, right? We have seen since 2020 numbers that are almost threefold what they were on a historic basis. And we expect that this will continue to happen. This will continue to be ongoing on our markets due mainly to the fact that all plants, especially in the Northern Hemisphere are getting older and older. Then you have the new pulp capacities in the Southern Hemisphere, now at a much bigger size, meaning that any unplanned downtime in the same amount of days will result in a much higher absolute production volume loss and the unforecasted or (inaudible) factors such as weather-related, war related, lack of wood, strikes, which will also, in our view, continue to be accounting for unexpected losses in the market. We just saw recently a study of one of the main consulting store business. And by mid-February, the current unexpected downtimes was already up to 350,000 tons.

在供應方面，什麼可以阻止價格上漲。首先，我們新的延遲和項目上市時間，正如我們在過去幾個月和幾個季度看到的那樣並不罕見，對吧？因此，對於我們來說，真正和實際上何時我們將看到向市場提供優質紙漿以及如何增加這種紙漿是非常不清楚的。正如我所提到的，到目前為止，我們完全沒有看到這些新玩家的報價或容量的增加。其次，這非常重要，我總是想強調這是我們部門計劃外停機的影響，對吧？自 2020 年以來，我們看到的數字幾乎是歷史數據的三倍。我們預計這將繼續發生。這將繼續在我們的市場上持續進行，主要是因為所有植物，尤其是北半球的植物都越來越老了。然後你在南半球擁有新的紙漿產能，現在規模更大，這意味著在相同天數內的任何計劃外停機將導致更高的絕對產量損失和不可預測或（聽不清）因素，例如天氣相關、戰爭相關、木材短缺、罷工，在我們看來，這些也將繼續導致市場出現意外損失。我們最近剛剛看到一項對一家主要諮詢店業務的研究。而到2月中旬，目前的意外停機已經高達35萬噸。

So it seems to be the same run rate, high run rates that we have seen on the previous 3 years.

所以這似乎是我們在過去 3 年看到的相同的運行率，高運行率。

Marcio, if I may, let just reinforce some remarks previously made by Walter. So we have progressed quite well in establishing our land bank needed to reach our forestry bases later in the coming years. So that was a great achievement for 2022. Also important to remind you all that we're going to have in Cerrado an average radius between the forest and the mill below 65 kilometers. That is great, a great number. And also, as Walter said, initially, 2022 was a record year in terms of forest (inaudible), and we expect 2023 to be another year, a record year as we are moving fast with our plantation program.

Marcio，如果可以的話，讓我強調一下 Walter 之前的一些評論。因此，我們在建立未來幾年到達林業基地所需的土地儲備方面取得了相當大的進展。所以這是 2022 年的一項偉大成就。同樣重要的是要提醒大家，我們將在 Cerrado 使森林和磨坊之間的平均半徑低於 65 公里。這很好，數量很大。而且，正如沃爾特所說，最初，2022 年是森林（聽不清）創紀錄的一年，我們預計 2023 年將是又一年，創紀錄的一年，因為我們正在快速推進我們的種植園計劃。

Our next question comes from Jens Spiess with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Jens Spiess。

And I really appreciate all the details you have been giving. I just wanted to ask, when do you expect the Kimberly-Clark deal to close? I guess you don't foresee any issues from CADE giving the how fragmented the market is in Brazil. And elaborating on that, do you plan to grow more inorganically in the tissue market. Do you have any target in mind as of how much integration you would like to have?

我真的很感謝你提供的所有細節。我只是想問，你預計金佰利交易什麼時候結束？我想您沒有預見到 CADE 會出現任何問題，說明巴西市場的分散程度。並詳細說明，您是否計劃在紙巾市場上更加無機地增長。關於您希望擁有多少集成度，您是否有任何目標？

This is Walter answering here. We do not have any kind of forecast when CADE is going to approve these operations. We expect that full approved with no remedies, but we have to wait for that. And of course, as we have this as a precedent conditions, we are going to march to the closing of this transaction. Regarding our future, we announced a potential program, new project in Aracruz. And of course, we are not going to comment on inorganic growth, that could be a possibility as well.

我是沃爾特在這裡回答。我們對 CADE 何時批准這些操作沒有任何預測。我們希望在沒有任何補救措施的情況下獲得完全批准，但我們必須等待。當然，由於我們將此作為先決條件，我們將邁向完成此交易。關於我們的未來，我們宣布了一個潛在的計劃，即阿拉克魯斯的新項目。當然，我們不會對無機增長發表評論，這也有可能。

Okay. Perfect. And maybe just one quick follow-up on the total operational disbursement, just to clarify, I think you gave a lot of details there on Slide 11, but I just wanted to make sure you're not considering any inflation beyond 2023, correct?

好的。完美的。也許只是對總運營支出的快速跟進，只是為了澄清，我認為你在幻燈片 11 上提供了很多細節，但我只是想確保你沒有考慮 2023 年以後的任何通貨膨脹，對嗎？

That's correct. The number is in 2023 currency.

這是正確的。該數字採用 2023 年貨幣。

Since there are no more questions, I would like to turn the floor over to the company's CEO for final considerations. Please, Mr. Walter Schalka, you may proceed.

由於沒有其他問題，我想將發言權交給公司的首席執行官進行最後考慮。 Walter Schalka 先生，請繼續。

I'd like to thank everyone to be part of this session. I think Suzano is very committed with our future. I would just like to reinforce to you our 3 pillars of our culture that we have been working various people that inspire and transforming that it's creating a sharing value with all stakeholders. And it's only good for us if it's good for the world. I think we have been performing well on the last many years, and we are humble enough to understand that we need to keep improving our operations to keep touching consumers, all the other stakeholders for our future. Thank you very much for joining us. I hope you have a very nice week.

我要感謝大家參加本次會議。我認為 Suzano 非常致力於我們的未來。我只想向您強調我們文化的三大支柱，我們一直在與各種人合作，激發和改變它正在與所有利益相關者創造共享價值。只有對世界有益，它才會對我們有益。我認為我們在過去的很多年裡一直表現良好，我們謙虛地理解我們需要不斷改進我們的運營以不斷接觸消費者，以及我們未來的所有其他利益相關者。非常感謝您加入我們。我希望你有一個非常愉快的一周。

Thank you. Suzano's fourth quarter results conference call is finished. Have a nice day.

謝謝。 Suzano 的第四季度業績電話會議結束。祝你今天過得愉快。