Suzano SA (SUZ) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for holding, and welcome to Suzano's conference call to discuss the results for the first quarter of 2023. We would like to inform that all participants will be in a listen-only mode during the presentation that will be addressed by the CEO, Mr. Walter Schalka, and other executive officers. (Operator Instructions)

女士們，先生們，感謝你們的主持，歡迎參加 Suzano 的電話會議，討論 2023 年第一季度的結果。我們想通知所有與會者在演講期間將處於只聽模式，由首席執行官 Walter Schalka 先生和其他執行官。 （操作員說明）

Before proceeding, please be aware that any forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs and assumptions of Suzano's management and on information currently available to the company. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions because they relate to future events and therefore, depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. You should understand that general economic conditions, industry conditions and other operating factors could also affect the future results of Suzano and could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements.

在繼續之前，請注意任何前瞻性陳述都是基於 Suzano 管理層的信念和假設以及公司目前可獲得的信息。它們涉及風險、不確定性和假設，因為它們與未來事件相關，因此取決於未來可能發生或不發生的情況。您應該明白，一般經濟狀況、行業狀況和其他經營因素也可能影響 Suzano 的未來業績，並可能導致結果與此類前瞻性陳述中表達的結果存在重大差異。

Now I would like to turn the floor over to the company's CEO. Please, Mr. Walter Schalka, you may proceed.

現在我想把發言權交給公司的首席執行官。 Walter Schalka 先生，請繼續。

Welcome, everybody, to the first quarter release meeting that we are discussing today. It's a great pleasure to have all of you. With me today, we have several members of the C level of the organization, and then we'll be prepared to answer your questions.

歡迎大家參加我們今天討論的第一季度發布會議。很高興有你們所有人。今天和我一起，我們有幾位組織的 C 級成員，然後我們將準備好回答您的問題。

I think it's very clear that this quarter, we were able to generate 3.7 -- or to invest BRL 3.7 billion on investments on CapEx. And even on this scenario, we kept our flat debt at $10.9 billion.

我認為很明顯，本季度我們能夠產生 3.7 - 或投資 37 億雷亞爾用於資本支出投資。即使在這種情況下，我們的固定債務仍保持在 109 億美元。

On the commercial side, we had sales on the pulp side at 2.5 million tons in line with the first quarter of last year. And the paper, we came back from our usual trends that we have lower first quarter, and we were able to increase a little bit our inventory to prepare for the second half. This trend was changed last year due to large volumes on exports. But this year, we revert to the old trend. And our inventory levels that pulp are below optimal levels.

在商業方面，我們的紙漿銷量為 250 萬噸，與去年第一季度持平。而報紙，我們從第一季度較低的一貫趨勢中恢復過來，我們能夠增加一點庫存以為下半年做準備。去年由於出口量大，這一趨勢發生了變化。但今年，我們又回到了老趨勢。我們的紙漿庫存水平低於最佳水平。

On operational performance, we had BRL 6.2 billion on EBITDA, a little bit over 20% higher than the same of last year. Our operation cash generation that we believe there is the right KPI to trend Suzano, there is EBITDA less CapEx sustaining, we had BRL 4.7 billion and our cash cost, and we are going to discuss a little bit more in details, was flat comparing with the previous quarter.

在經營業績方面，我們的 EBITDA 為 62 億雷亞爾，比去年同期高出 20% 多一點。我們的運營現金生成，我們相信有正確的 KPI 來趨勢 Suzano，EBITDA 減去資本支出維持，我們有 47 億雷亞爾和我們的現金成本，我們將討論更多的細節，與上個季度。

We have a very strong balance sheet. We do have right now in cash and in credit lines, $6.1 billion at this point of time. As I mentioned before, our net debt is $10.9 billion and very comfortable with almost 7 years of average maturity and our leverage is 1.9x net debt over EBITDA.

我們的資產負債表非常強勁。我們現在確實有現金和信貸額度，目前為 61 億美元。正如我之前提到的，我們的淨債務為 109 億美元，並且對近 7 年的平均期限非常滿意，我們的槓桿率是 EBITDA 淨債務的 1.9 倍。

I would like -- I'm very pleased to share with you some information regarding ESG. We are able to deliver our sustainability report before the AGM that happened this week. It was the first time that we were able to do it. It is very comprehensive, and it's very detailed information -- there is -- with full transparency to the market.

我想 - 我很高興與您分享一些有關 ESG 的信息。我們能夠在本週舉行的年度股東大會之前提交我們的可持續發展報告。這是我們第一次能夠做到。它非常全面，而且是非常詳細的信息——有——對市場完全透明。

And we had the carbon credits approval from the first time, the first project that we had. This is several programs that we are going to have in place. This amount is around 1.7 million carbon credit tons.

我們從第一次開始就獲得了碳信用額度的批准，這是我們擁有的第一個項目。這是我們將要實施的幾個計劃。這一數量約為 170 萬碳信用噸。

We had on this first quarter, the approval of our -- on the CADE, on the antitrust authorities of our acquisition of the Kimberly-Clark Tissue operations here in Brazil and we expect to completing this transaction on the second quarter of this year.

我們在第一季度獲得了 CADE 和反壟斷當局的批准，我們收購了巴西的 Kimberly-Clark Tissue 業務，我們預計將在今年第二季度完成這項交易。

Now I'm going to pass to Fabio, who is going to share with you information regarding Paper and Packaging business.

現在有請 Fabio，他將與您分享有關紙張和包裝業務的信息。

Thanks, Walter, and good morning, everyone. Let's turn to the next slide on the presentation. The Paper and Package business unit has delivered a solid EBITDA during the first quarter of 2023, despite more challenged market scenario in the international paper markets. Shipments for print and writing papers and paperboard have decreased in the main international markets in the beginning of 2023, giving a restocking move that has begun at the end of last year.

謝謝，沃爾特，大家早上好。讓我們轉到演示文稿的下一張幻燈片。儘管國際紙張市場面臨更多挑戰，但紙張和包裝業務部門在 2023 年第一季度實現了可觀的 EBITDA。 2023 年初，主要國際市場的印刷和書寫用紙及紙板出貨量有所下降，這是去年年底開始的補貨舉措。

Demand in the domestic market has been more resilient for both print and writing and packaging grades. According to IBA, demand for print and write papers in Brazil decreased by 3.2% in the 2 first months of 2023 compared to the same period of last year. However, this decline is largely attributed to the strong comparison base from last year when uncoated papers were sold into the containerboard segment.

國內市場對印刷和書寫以及包裝等級的需求更具彈性。據 IBA 稱，與去年同期相比，2023 年前 2 個月巴西對印刷和書寫用紙的需求下降了 3.2%。然而，這種下降主要歸因於去年未塗佈紙銷售到箱板紙市場時的強大比較基礎。

If we exclude these volumes, we estimate that domestic demand for print and writing has still grown. The mass demand for paperboard increased by 3% on the first 2 months of this year compared on a quarter-over-quarter -- on a year-over-year basis, driven by sustained consumption of essential goods and inventory normalization in the chain.

如果我們排除這些數量，我們估計國內對印刷和寫作的需求仍在增長。今年前兩個月，紙板的大眾需求環比增長 3%，同比增長，主要受必需品持續消費和供應鏈庫存正常化的推動。

The supply imbalance start fading and demands returned to its historical trend in mature markets. In emerging markets, such as Latin America, there's still some demand growth fostered by some segments, tax books for example.

供應失衡開始消退，需求恢復到成熟市場的歷史趨勢。在拉丁美洲等新興市場，某些細分市場（例如稅簿）仍然推動了一些需求增長。

Suzano sales volumes in the quarter were 11% lower on a year-over-year basis. The decrease in sales volume is explained by our commercial decision to reduce our offering to the export markets given the high level of paper stocks in the chain in most markets. This decision allows us to replenish our own paper inventories that have been running low optimum levels for 2022.

本季度 Suzano 的銷量同比下降 11%。銷量下降的原因是我們的商業決策減少了我們向出口市場提供的產品，因為大多數市場的供應鏈中紙庫存水平很高。這一決定使我們能夠補充我們自己的紙張庫存，這些庫存在 2022 年一直處於較低的最佳水平。

Domestic sales represented 72% of our total sales in the quarter. In the last 2 years, we have had higher paper prices as a result of supply restrictions coinciding with demand recovery post-COVID. However, as these factors are now fading, marks are returned to their secular demand behavior. Prices in spot markets have already fallen, but remained stable at healthy levels in North America and Western Europe.

國內銷售額佔本季度總銷售額的 72%。在過去 2 年中，由於供應限制與 COVID 後需求復蘇相吻合，我們的紙張價格上漲。然而，隨著這些因素現在正在消退，標記又回到了它們的長期需求行為中。現貨市場價格已經下跌，但在北美和西歐仍穩定在健康水平。

In this market, supply are adjusting their operating rates to match demand. In Brazil, prices have trailed behind those international markets in dollar terms for most of last year, providing an opportunity for some price increases at the end of 2022, which were implemented during the first quarter. Our price in the first quarter was 32% higher on a year-over-year basis. Our EBITDA has reached BRL 708 million, a 35% increase on a year-over-year basis. This is our highest EBITDA and EBITDA per ton for a given first quarter.

在這個市場上，供應正在調整他們的開工率以匹配需求。在巴西，去年大部分時間裡，以美元計算的價格都落後於國際市場，這為 2022 年底在第一季度實施的一些價格上漲提供了機會。我們第一季度的價格同比上漲 32%。我們的 EBITDA 已達到 7.08 億雷亞爾，同比增長 35%。這是我們第一季度的最高 EBITDA 和每噸 EBITDA。

Looking ahead, we should expect demand for print and write rates to return to secular trends. Higher demand for packaging grades should continue to outpace GDP growth to the --- due to the sustainability push.

展望未來，我們應該預期對打印和寫入率的需求將恢復到長期趨勢。由於可持續性的推動，對包裝等級的更高需求應繼續超過 GDP 增長至 ---。

Suzano's paper business is more concentrated in the domestic market, which is less volatile to supply demand in balance seen in some of the international markets. Although there was still some inflation on raw material and energy during Q1, it showed some signs of cooling down, offering good perspectives for the remainder of the year. It's worth mentioning that the structural competitiveness of Suzano Paper and Packaging business provides a solid ground to navigate on the unforeseen market demand.

Suzano 的造紙業務更集中於國內市場，在一些國際市場上供需平衡的波動較小。儘管第一季度原材料和能源方面仍存在一些通脹，但顯示出一些降溫跡象，為今年剩餘時間提供了良好的前景。值得一提的是，蘇珊諾紙包業務的結構性競爭力為應對不可預見的市場需求提供了堅實的基礎。

Now I will turn it over to Leo, who will be presenting our Pulp business results.

現在我將把它交給 Leo，他將介紹我們的 Pulp 業務成果。

Thanks, Fabio, and good morning, everyone. Let's move to the next slide of our presentation so that we can address the results of our Pulp business units for the first quarter of 2023.

謝謝，法比奧，大家早上好。讓我們轉到演示文稿的下一張幻燈片，以便我們可以解決 2023 年第一季度紙漿業務部門的業績。

As you can note on the upper left graph, our Q1 sales volumes were 3% higher than Q1 '22 and 11% below the preceding quarter, which has a higher seasonality effect. Due to our Q1 sales performance, our inventories are still below optimum operational levels, as mentioned by Walter.

正如您在左上圖中所注意到的，我們第一季度的銷量比 22 年第一季度高 3%，比上一季度低 11%，這具有更高的季節性影響。由於我們第一季度的銷售業績，我們的庫存仍低於沃爾特提到的最佳運營水平。

During the past quarter, demand has been quite mismatched in different regions of the world. In Europe, while the Tissue segment was quite resilient, Printing and writing as well as some specialty grades, mostly related to the labor markets continue to face lower order intake as distributors and printers continue their destocking movement.

在上個季度，世界不同地區的需求非常不匹配。在歐洲，雖然紙巾部門相當有彈性，但由於分銷商和印刷商繼續進行去庫存運動，印刷和書寫以及一些主要與勞動力市場相關的特種紙品繼續面臨較低的訂單量。

In North America, most of the hardwood consumption is concentrated on the tissue segment. Therefore, hardwood demand was quite stable. In China, demand for pulp, reflecting order intake was increasing throughout the quarter with a bigger concentration in March. Production levels in most paper segments as well as ivory board were quite high and actually above historic levels, keeping pulp inventories across Chinese chain quite normalized and balanced.

在北美，大部分硬木消費集中在衛生紙領域。因此，硬木需求相當穩定。在中國，反映訂單量的紙漿需求在整個季度都在增加，其中 3 月份更加集中。大多數造紙部門和象牙紙的生產水平都很高，實際上高於歷史水平，使整個中國產業鏈的紙漿庫存保持正常和平衡。

As pulp demand in Europe was lower than expected due to this paper destocking movement, we noticed pulp volumes being redirected to China, putting more pressure in this market where price reduction were more intense than other regions of the world.

由於紙張去庫存運動導致歐洲的紙漿需求低於預期，我們注意到紙漿量被重新定向到中國，給這個市場帶來更大的壓力，這個市場的降價幅度比世界其他地區更大。

Now coming back to the slide, our average export price for Q1 of $719 was 13% below Q4 and 13% higher than our prices in Q1 '22. During the quarter closing, actual prices in China were lower than market indexes as most orders were closed on the very last days of the month after prolonged negotiations, which took place during the Shanghai Pulp week.

現在回到幻燈片，我們第一季度的平均出口價格為 719 美元，比第四季度低 13%，比 22 年第一季度的價格高 13%。在本季度結束時，中國的實際價格低於市場指數，因為在上海紙漿週期間進行了長時間的談判後，大多數訂單在本月的最後幾天關閉。

The Q1 EBITDA performance was mainly driven by solid sales volumes, as already addressed which despite lower prices led us to an EBITDA of BRL 5.3 billion, representing 57% EBITDA margin.

第一季度的 EBITDA 業績主要是由穩定的銷量推動的，正如已經提到的那樣，儘管價格較低，但我們的 EBITDA 為 53 億雷亞爾，相當於 57% 的 EBITDA 利潤率。

Now looking forward, I would like to highlight the following points. In China, we keep noticing quite an optimism from our customers with improving confidence levels and the general expectation that consumer confidence and spending will accelerate in the short term also helped by the recovery of paper and carton board exports.

現在展望未來，我想強調以下幾點。在中國，我們不斷注意到我們的客戶相當樂觀，信心水平提高，並且普遍預期消費者信心和支出將在短期內加速，這也得益於紙張和紙板出口的複蘇。

Order intake for Suzano in April should be much aligned with March, trending quite close to historic levels. In Europe, we expect that distributors and customers destocking will last a couple of months. And soon, this will stimulate the recovery of purchases of paper and consequently pulp in this market.

Suzano 4 月份的訂單量應該與 3 月份非常一致，趨勢非常接近歷史水平。在歐洲，我們預計分銷商和客戶的去庫存將持續幾個月。很快，這將刺激該市場紙張和紙漿採購的複蘇。

In the tissue segment, we continue to see quite stable and resilient markets with positive downstream demand.

在衛生紙領域，我們繼續看到相當穩定和有彈性的市場，下游需求積極。

In North America, again, focusing on Tissue as other paper grades are mostly integrated, most major producers are reporting to be running a steady and positive rates.

在北美，再次關注衛生紙，因為其他紙張等級大多是集成的，大多數主要生產商報告說運行穩定且積極的利率。

Looking now on the supply side of the equation, we expect this momentary reshuffling of volumes between Europe to other regions should persist in the beginning of Q2 and regarding new capacities, as we have stated previously, we expect that they will reach markets gradually, possibly more significantly towards the second half of the year.

現在從供應方面來看，我們預計歐洲與其他地區之間的這種短暫的交易量重組應該會持續到第二季度初，關於新產能，正如我們之前所說，我們預計它們將逐步進入市場，可能到下半年更為明顯。

We expect that unexpected downtimes will continue to put additional pressure -- an unforecasted pressure on supply due to the technical age of pulp producers, weather-related advanced strikes as well as cost pressure and availability of wood in several regions of the world.

我們預計，意外停機將繼續帶來額外壓力——由於紙漿生產商的技術時代、與天氣相關的提前罷工以及世界多個地區的成本壓力和木材供應，供應無法預料的壓力。

It is our view that the current price levels in China and other Asian countries are quite below marginal cost producers and we expect that this will generate a lower domestic market pulp production in this region as well as we expect that several integrated BHKP and paper producers should reduce their pulp production, turning to purchasing of market pulp. Indeed, since March and April, we have noticed the first inquiries from this profile of customers.

我們認為，中國和其他亞洲國家目前的價格水平遠低於生產商的邊際成本，我們預計這將導致該地區國內市場紙漿產量下降，我們預計一些綜合 BHKP 和造紙生產商應該減少紙漿產量，轉而購買商品漿。事實上，自 3 月和 4 月以來，我們已經註意到來自該客戶資料的第一批諮詢。

With that said, I would now like to invite Bacci to address with you our cash cost performance for the quarter.

話雖如此，我現在想邀請 Bacci 與您討論我們本季度的現金成本表現。

Thank you, Leo. Moving to Page 6. We see that we had a flattish performance of our cash cost in relation to the previous quarter, which is according to our expectations. And that is due to higher maintenance costs due to annual shutdowns that also impacted the fixed cost and compensated the positive effect that we start to see coming from the commodity prices. We already see lower input costs that will support similar levels of cash cost on Q2 despite the higher amount of plant shutdowns in that period. We expect cash costs on the second half of the year to be lower than the current level at current commodity prices.

謝謝你，利奧。轉到第 6 頁。我們看到，與上一季度相比，我們的現金成本表現平平，這符合我們的預期。這是由於年度停工導致維護成本增加，這也影響了固定成本並補償了我們開始看到的商品價格帶來的積極影響。我們已經看到較低的投入成本將支持第二季度類似水平的現金成本，儘管該時期工廠關閉數量較多。我們預計今年下半年的現金成本將低於當前商品價格的當前水平。

Moving to Page 7. The Cerrado Project continues to perform on time and according to the budget that we had established for the project. We now have 57% physical progress on the project. We have updated the amount of CapEx, taking into consideration the inflation correction that is part of the contracts that we have with our suppliers on the project. That inflation is BRL 1.9 billion between the beginning of the contracts and the end of 2023.

轉到第 7 頁。Cerrado 項目繼續按時並根據我們為該項目制定的預算執行。我們現在在該項目上取得了 57% 的實際進展。我們更新了資本支出的金額，考慮到作為我們與項目供應商簽訂的合同的一部分的通貨膨脹修正。從合同開始到 2023 年底，通貨膨脹率為 19 億雷亞爾。

We have also had gains of BRL 300 million on FX when compared to our budget to the realized payments that we made on dollar and euro-denominated parts of the project. That leads to an amount of BRL 20.9 billion.

與我們對項目的美元和歐元計價部分的已實現付款的預算相比，我們還獲得了 3 億雷亞爾的外匯收益。這導致金額為 209 億雷亞爾。

In addition to that, we found opportunities to make instead of buying several items of the project that will improve the return of the project. That includes chemical plants, port facilities and some forestry assets. And that leads to the possibility of keeping unchanged our guidance of cash cost for the project in the future, even taking into consideration the high inflation of the period. We keep also unchanged the guidance of CapEx for 2023 with all the difference impacting only in 2024.

除此之外，我們還找到機會製造而不是購買項目的多個項目，這將提高項目的回報。這包括化工廠、港口設施和一些林業資產。這導致我們有可能在未來保持對項目現金成本的指導不變，即使考慮到該時期的高通脹。我們也保持 2023 年資本支出指導不變，所有差異僅影響 2024 年。

Moving to Page 8. We see that our net debt remained flat at $10.9 billion in the period despite the $800 million CapEx that we made in the period. The leverage ratio went to 1.9x. And our liquidity remains very high at $6.1 billion which is more than everything that we had maturing between now and the end of 2026.

轉到第 8 頁。我們看到，儘管我們在此期間進行了 8 億美元的資本支出，但在此期間我們的淨債務仍持平於 109 億美元。槓桿比率升至 1.9 倍。我們的流動性仍然非常高，達到 61 億美元，這比我們從現在到 2026 年底到期的所有資產都多。

Finally, on Page 9. We show that we currently have a $7 billion portfolio of FX derivatives, which covers, including the hedges related to the Cerrado Project, includes and cover 67% of our FX gap coverage in the next 2 years, where we have an average put of 5.63, which gives us a very significant protection when compared to the current level of FX that we see in the market right now around BRL 5.

最後，在第 9 頁。我們表明，我們目前擁有 70 億美元的外匯衍生品組合，其中包括與 Cerrado 項目相關的對沖，包括並涵蓋未來 2 年我們外匯缺口覆蓋的 67％，我們平均看跌期權為 5.63，與我們目前在市場上看到的 5 雷亞爾左右的當前外匯水平相比，這為我們提供了非常重要的保護。

With that, I turn back to Walter.

有了這個，我回到沃爾特。

Thank you, Marcelo. I think it's very important to mention to you and to reinforce the point that we keep our avenue -- strategic avenues for the future. We have 5 different avenues. One of them is to keep our DNA on reducing our total cash costs. All the projects are in place right now.

謝謝你，馬塞洛。我認為向您提及並強調我們保持我們的途徑 - 未來的戰略途徑這一點非常重要。我們有 5 種不同的途徑。其中之一是保持我們的 DNA，以降低我們的總現金成本。目前所有項目都已到位。

Next month, we have Jacarei plant retrofitted, we have Aracruz and we have been working on the forest side and logistics as well to reduce our total cost.

下個月，我們對 Jacarei 工廠進行了改造，我們擁有 Aracruz，並且我們一直致力於森林方面和物流方面的工作，以降低我們的總成本。

The second strategic avenue that is quite important is our relevance on the global pulp market. Cerrado will come next year to reinforce the point. The third one is our strategy on vertical integration. And then we have Kimberly-Clark assets as one part of this view for the future.

第二個非常重要的戰略途徑是我們與全球紙漿市場的相關性。 Cerrado 明年會來加強這一點。第三個是我們的垂直整合戰略。然後我們將 Kimberly-Clark 資產作為這種未來觀點的一部分。

On the fourth, we have the new avenues, the new alternatives that we have to our trees and we are very pleased to tell you that we had MFSC operating in Brazil and in Finland at this point of time and we are looking for new opportunities in this area.

第四，我們有新的途徑，我們擁有的樹木的新替代品，我們很高興地告訴你，此時我們在巴西和芬蘭開展了 MFSC 業務，我們正在尋找新的機會這片區域。

And the fifth one is sustainability and carbon certification is one of the advancements that we have during this quarter.

第五個是可持續性，碳認證是我們在本季度取得的進步之一。

We will keep our strategy -- commercial strategy for pulp and paper. It's a very important that our ambition is not to increase our inventories on the pulp side, and we reinforce the point that the company is managed by event and not by average. I'd like just to bring force this point to you. And we will not increase our inventories on the near future. Our cash cost is an opportunity that we will have a downward trend in the third and fourth quarter of this year.

我們將保持我們的戰略——紙漿和紙張的商業戰略。非常重要的一點是，我們的目標是不增加紙漿方面的庫存，我們強調公司是按事件而不是按平均來管理的。我只想向你強調這一點。我們不會在不久的將來增加我們的庫存。我們的現金成本是一個機會，我們將在今年第三和第四季度出現下降趨勢。

And just to reinforce our policy our financial discipline and our capital discipline as well, we have a very strong balance sheet, and we will keep this on a very clear strategy and very clear policy that we have right now.

為了加強我們的政策，我們的財務紀律和我們的資本紀律，我們有一個非常強大的資產負債表，我們將保持這個非常明確的戰略和我們現在擁有的非常明確的政策。

And we are very pleased with the Cerrado Project that is on time, on budget. This is going to be a project that is going to transform Suzano, is going to be the lowest cash cost on our system and from our understanding, the lowest cash cost in the world, and we are on track to deliver that as we expected and related with our original track record on time and on budget.

我們對按時按預算完成的 Cerrado 項目感到非常滿意。這將是一個將改造 Suzano 的項目，將是我們系統中現金成本最低的項目，據我們了解，這是世界上最低的現金成本，我們正按預期實現這一目標，並且與我們按時按預算的原始記錄相關。

Now we will be ready to answer your questions. Thank you very much.

現在我們將準備好回答您的問題。非常感謝。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Thiago Lofiego with Bradesco BBI.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Thiago Lofiego 和 Bradesco BBI。

Two questions from my side. The first one, Leo, what we have been hearing about pulp being sold at around $450 already, so $450 to $480. And that is apparently enticing integrated producers to start buying market pulp. So the question here is how big is that potential additional demand? And how quickly do you think those integrated producers can switch on and off those purchases?

我這邊的兩個問題。第一個，Leo，我們聽說紙漿的售價已經在 450 美元左右，所以在 450 到 480 美元之間。這顯然吸引了綜合生產商開始購買商品漿。所以這裡的問題是潛在的額外需求有多大？您認為這些綜合生產商能以多快的速度開啟和關閉這些採購？

Second question, Bacci on the leverage side, if prices remain, let's say, around $500 per ton for a long period of time, which was the case of the last cycle, would leverage be of any concern. In my calculations here, we could see leverage potentially surpassing 5x for a few quarters in that scenario, right? Just wanted to hear your thoughts on that.

第二個問題，Bacci 在槓桿方面，如果價格長期保持在每噸 500 美元左右，這是上一個週期的情況，那麼槓桿將是一個問題。在我這裡的計算中，我們可以看到在這種情況下幾個季度的槓桿率可能超過 5 倍，對吧？只是想听聽您對此的看法。

Thanks, Thiago. This is Leo here to answer your first question. So related to how big is this potential of integrated BHKP and paper producers in China, to reduce their BHKP production and generating additional demand for pulp. This is quite hard and difficult to estimate, no consulting company covers this number or even give track record on that.

謝謝，蒂亞戈。我是 Leo 來回答你的第一個問題。因此，與中國 BHKP 和造紙生產商的潛力有多大有關，以減少其 BHKP 產量並產生對紙漿的額外需求。這是很難估計的，沒有諮詢公司涵蓋這個數字，甚至沒有提供跟踪記錄。

But if you consider that there are between 8 million and 9 million tons of integrated BHKP and paper producers in China, reduction in 10% of the production would account for roughly 800,000 tons of additional demand for BHKP but again, this is just an estimate and a correlation with 10% decrease to that sense. It's very hard to precise on that. And it's even harder to precise on how quickly because that depends on the strategies and the financial planning of several of these producers. So we cannot comment on that.

但如果你考慮到中國有 800 萬噸到 900 萬噸綜合 BHKP 和紙張生產商，減少 10% 的產量將導致大約 800,000 噸 BHKP 的額外需求，但這只是一個估計和在這種意義上與減少 10% 的相關性。很難確定這一點。而且更難確定多快，因為這取決於其中幾家生產商的戰略和財務計劃。所以我們不能對此發表評論。

And just a quick follow-up. Are you guys seeing that on the ground already happening? Or this is just a potential...

并快速跟進。你們看到這已經在實地發生了嗎？或者這只是一個潛在的...

Okay. Good. As I mentioned in my speech, since March, we have started to see that. So we have started to get inquiries and actually not only inquiries, but we sold to integrated BHKP and paper producers, and this trend is ongoing in April as well. And I believe it will be increasing significantly throughout the next month.

好的。好的。正如我在演講中提到的，自 3 月以來，我們已經開始看到這一點。所以我們已經開始收到詢價，實際上不僅是詢價，我們還向綜合 BHKP 和造紙商出售產品，這種趨勢也在 4 月份持續。我相信下個月它會顯著增加。

Thiago, it's Marcelo speaking. In regards to your question, we have guided before the market that we have established a limit to our net debt that we don't expect to surpass which is $12 billion. We are currently at $10.9 billion. In any of the scenarios that we foresee today, we will surpass the $12 billion. Of course, the net debt-to-EBITDA ratio will increase as a result of EBITDA coming down. But the increase on the net debt level will be minor from this point.

蒂亞戈，我是馬塞洛。關於你的問題，我們已經在市場上做出了指導，我們已經為我們的淨債務設定了一個上限，我們預計不會超過 120 億美元。我們目前的收入為 109 億美元。在我們今天預見的任何情況下，我們都將超過 120 億美元。當然，由於 EBITDA 下降，淨債務與 EBITDA 的比率將增加。但從這一點來看，淨債務水平的增長將很小。

We have, in availabilities today enough cash to cover the maturities that we have in the next 4 years which means that we don't have any needs to go to the market to refinance anything in that period. And therefore, any potential impact on leverage will not have a visible impact on the cost of our debt or availability of funds. So we are not concerned with leverage at this point. Of course, we will be continuing to manage the company on a very disciplined way when it comes to capital allocation and also financial discipline, but we don't foresee any issues coming from the financial side in the visible future.

我們今天有足夠的現金來支付未來 4 年的到期款項，這意味著我們沒有任何需要去市場為那個時期的任何東西再融資。因此，對槓桿的任何潛在影響都不會對我們的債務成本或資金可用性產生明顯影響。所以我們現在不關心槓桿。當然，在資本配置和財務紀律方面，我們將繼續以非常有紀律的方式管理公司，但我們預計在可見的未來財務方面不會出現任何問題。

Our next question comes from Leonardo Correa with BTG Pactual.

我們的下一個問題來自 BTG Pactual 的 Leonardo Correa。

So my first question, on the marginal kind of Suzano, right, if we -- I mean if we look at the highest cost lines of Suzano, guys, I just wanted to hear you on how that is performing or how that could be performing profitability-wise, right, or EBITDA per ton wise in a scenario of pulp prices moving $450 to $500, right? So I just wanted to hear you on how let's say, the marginal ton of Suzano is performing in this scenario, which is clearly quite aggressive.

所以我的第一個問題，關於 Suzano 的邊緣類型，如果我們 - 我的意思是如果我們看看 Suzano 的最高成本線，伙計們，我只想听聽你的表現如何或可能如何表現在紙漿價格上漲 450 美元至 500 美元的情況下，從盈利能力角度來看，對嗎？或者每噸 EBITDA 是明智的，對嗎？所以我只想听聽你怎麼說，Suzano 的邊緣噸在這種情況下表現如何，這顯然非常激進。

And as Leo pointed out, quite below marginal cost of production, right? So I just wanted to hear you -- I know that Suzano obviously is the lowest cost producer in the industry. But within the production lines of Suzano, I can imagine that some lines could be under some pressure in this pricing environment. So that's the first question.

正如 Leo 指出的那樣，遠遠低於邊際生產成本，對吧？所以我只想听聽你的意見——我知道 Suzano 顯然是業內成本最低的生產商。但在 Suzano 的生產線中，我可以想像在這種定價環境下，有些生產線可能會承受一些壓力。這是第一個問題。

The second one, moving back to capital allocation still on the question from Thiago. I mean looking at I mean, medium-term prospects, right? So how do we -- I mean the project we're getting into peaks of the CapEx cycle and of course, the pricing environment hasn't been helping and probably won't help much over the next quarters.

第二個，回到資本配置，仍然是蒂亞戈提出的問題。我的意思是看中期前景，對嗎？那麼我們如何 - 我的意思是我們進入資本支出週期高峰的項目，當然，定價環境沒有幫助，並且在接下來的幾個季度可能不會有太大幫助。

But just for the sake of the argument, if we were to incorporate $550 as an average for the next years, leverage would probably peak at about 3.5x net debt-to-EBITDA, which is not alarming, but is perhaps a bit higher than what you guys would like through the cycle. So how are you viewing the medium-term outlook on capital allocation and balance sheet? I mean would it be a fair assessment that after Cerrado is concluded at the end of 2024, I mean, Suzano would be on a deleveraging mode from '25 to '27, where I mean very little big projects would be announced and it would be more of a deleveraging story. Just wanted to get your sense on how we should view the investment case beyond Cerrado. So those are the 2 questions.

但僅出於爭論的目的，如果我們將 550 美元納入未來幾年的平均水平，槓桿率可能會達到約 3.5 倍淨債務與 EBITDA 的峰值，這並不令人擔憂，但可能略高於你們在整個週期中想要什麼。那麼，您如何看待資本配置和資產負債表的中期前景？我的意思是，在 Cerrado 於 2024 年底結束後，我的意思是，Suzano 將從 25 歲到 27 歲處於去槓桿化模式，這是一個公平的評估，我的意思是，我的意思是宣布的大項目很少，而且會是更多的是去槓桿化的故事。只是想讓您了解我們應該如何看待 Cerrado 以外的投資案例。所以這是兩個問題。

Leo, this is Leo here to answer your first question, which was briefly addressed by Walter on his closing speech. Despite Suzano's and our competitiveness and the ability to navigate in different scenarios, in different market scenarios, we always analyze costs, not only on average terms but on an event basis, analyzing specific fourth quartile cost of wood and production. However, I would like to reinforce that our plan -- our commercial plan is based on following closely and supporting our customers' needs as well as not increasing our inventory levels as also stated by Walter.

Leo，我是 Leo 來回答你的第一個問題，Walter 在他的閉幕詞中簡短地提到了這個問題。儘管 Suzano 和我們的競爭力和能力在不同的場景中導航，在不同的市場場景中，我們總是分析成本，不僅以平均方式而且以事件為基礎，分析木材和生產的具體第四四分位數成本。但是，我想強調我們的計劃——我們的商業計劃是基於密切關注和支持我們客戶的需求，而不是像沃爾特所說的那樣增加我們的庫存水平。

Can you give us any detail, Leo on profitability of your -- let's say, your last time of your marginal ton?

Leo，你能給我們任何關於你的盈利能力的細節嗎 - 比方說，你最後一次的邊際噸？

No, this is an information that we don't disclose. Unfortunately, we don't disclose it.

不，這是我們不會透露的信息。不幸的是，我們不公開它。

Leo, in regards to capital allocation, if we -- in a scenario like the one you described, the peak of our leverage will be right before we start the Cerrado line. And after we start the project, we will be generating more cash and, therefore, reducing the leverage. Depending on where the market goes, we are going to have more or less capital to allocate. But it's fair to assume that the peak will be right before we start Cerrado and many additional capital allocation decisions will come after that start up.

Leo，關於資本配置，如果我們——在你描述的那種情況下，我們的槓桿峰值將在我們開始 Cerrado 線之前。在我們啟動該項目後，我們將產生更多現金，從而降低杠桿率。根據市場走向，我們將有或多或少的資金可供分配。但可以公平地假設峰值將在我們啟動 Cerrado 之前，並且許多額外的資本配置決策將在該啟動之後出現。

Our next question comes from Daniel Sasson with Itaú BBA.

我們的下一個問題來自 Itaú BBA 的 Daniel Sasson。

My first question, maybe still on the on CapEx, the reason that we made for Cerrado. Your forest logistics and other CapEx increased from 4.6 to 6.3. I just wanted to get more color on the forest part. I mean was that increase only because of the port issue that you mentioned? Or is it also related to land acquisition. And my question is related to -- or is focused on that because I'd like to know if you could give more details on how land acquisition for Cerrado is progressing, right?

我的第一個問題，也許仍然在資本支出上，我們為 Cerrado 做的原因。您的森林物流和其他資本支出從 4.6 增加到 6.3。我只是想在森林部分獲得更多顏色。我的意思是，增加只是因為您提到的端口問題嗎？或者是不是也跟徵地有關。我的問題與 - 或者集中於此，因為我想知道您是否可以提供有關 Cerrado 土地徵用進展情況的更多詳細信息，對嗎？

I mean the competition for land has been fiercer or getting fiercer over the last years. And I was wondering if maybe about if you have a view on potential challenge to acquire new lands for eventual new projects, if that couldn't delay the next big investment not only for Suzano, but maybe for the industry.

我的意思是，在過去幾年裡，對土地的競爭越來越激烈。我想知道你是否對為最終的新項目收購新土地的潛在挑戰有看法，如果這不會延遲不僅對 Suzano，而且對整個行業的下一次大投資。

And my second question is on how you guys are seeing inventory levels for your customers, right? I mean I think that Walter mentioned that for Suzano inventory levels are slightly below normalized levels or close to normal levels. But the question goes to -- at what point maybe we could see your customers building up inventories and going back maybe to more normalized levels, if you think that they are below where they should be.

我的第二個問題是你們如何看待客戶的庫存水平，對嗎？我的意思是我認為沃爾特提到 Suzano 的庫存水平略低於正常水平或接近正常水平。但問題是——在什麼時候我們可以看到你的客戶建立庫存並可能回到更正常的水平，如果你認為他們低於他們應該的水平。

Thank you very much, Daniel. It's Walter answering here. I'm going to start your first question. Just start clarifying something. We do not have any kind of cost overrun on this project. The first part is just adjustment on parametrical formulas that we have with our suppliers regarding inflation mainly labor inflation that we have during this period.

非常感謝你，丹尼爾。沃爾特在這裡接聽電話。我要開始你的第一個問題。只是開始澄清一些事情。我們在這個項目上沒有任何成本超支。第一部分只是調整我們與供應商之間關於通貨膨脹的參數公式，主要是我們在此期間的勞動力通貨膨脹。

Then in the -- if you consider the currency of 2021, we are exactly at the same level that we were before. Regarding the make or buy, we always make an analysis on higher net present value of the alternatives are making or buy. And then for some chemicals such as sulfuric acid, some such as logistics and as a terminal in the Santos Port or with alternatives on the land that would be made or lease in this case, lease or buy a land, we would changing depending on the alternatives that we have at every time.

然後在 - 如果你考慮 2021 年的貨幣，我們的水平與以前完全相同。關於製造或購買，我們總是對正在製造或購買的備選方案的較高淨現值進行分析。然後對於一些化學品，如硫酸，一些化學品，如物流和桑托斯港的碼頭，或者在這種情況下，在土地上製造或租賃的替代品，租賃或購買土地，我們會根據我們每次都有的選擇。

And then this 1.3 additional CapEx is not related with the project is related with alternatives that we have in terms of make or buy. Our land banking is increasing a lot. Last year, we increased our land banking in 400,000 hectares with acquisitions such as Parkia and Caravelas and we keep increasing our land banking for the future. This year, we keep our investment plan of planting 300,000 hectares of forest this year. Then we will keep our strategy preparing the company for the future.

然後這 1.3 額外的資本支出與項目無關，與我們在製造或購買方面擁有的替代方案有關。我們的土地儲備正在增加很多。去年，我們通過收購 Parkia 和 Caravelas 等地增加了 400,000 公頃的土地儲備，並且我們將繼續增加未來的土地儲備。今年，我們保持今年造林30萬公頃的投資計劃。然後我們將保持我們的戰略為公司的未來做好準備。

If I can complement here Sasson, we do see more fiercer competition for land and forest, and this will probably have an impact on the speed that potential future projects may come to the market for us and also for the competition.

如果我能在這裡補充 Sasson，我們確實會看到更激烈的土地和森林競爭，這可能會影響未來潛在項目進入市場的速度，也會影響競爭。

Okay. So now jumping in, Daniel. This is Leo here to talk about the inventory levels, pulp inventory levels for our customers. In North America, they are quite normalized, have been quite normalized for several quarters. In Europe, they are also normalized because as we sell from our local terminals, customers anticipate their planning with us several months ahead. So this reducing operating rates mentioned by Fabio in his presentation to equate for lower demand in Europe was anticipated to us, and they have quite normalized inventories in their sites.

好的。所以現在開始吧，丹尼爾。 Leo 在這里為我們的客戶談論庫存水平，紙漿庫存水平。在北美，它們已經相當正常化，已經相當正常化了好幾個季度。在歐洲，它們也已正常化，因為當我們從本地終端銷售時，客戶會提前幾個月與我們一起進行計劃。因此，法比奧在他的演講中提到的這種降低開工率等同於歐洲需求下降的情況在我們看來是意料之中的，而且他們在他們的網站上有相當正常的庫存。

However, we see some inventory increase in European ports, and I believe this will take some time to normalize. Thus again, we expect that part of the shipments being -- that were originally scheduled to go to Europe are being redirected to other regions in the world.

然而，我們看到歐洲港口的庫存有所增加，我相信這需要一些時間才能恢復正常。因此，我們再次預計，原定運往歐洲的部分貨物將被重新定向到世界其他地區。

In China, we don't see any inventory buildup in the hands of customers. We were there recently. Our teams -- our commercial teams are also reporting from recent visits and with our customers. And we don't see inventory buildup at this point of time. We also don't see inventory buildup at the port. We see inventories at the ports for all -- operates quite normalized in that sense. And the expected restocking of Chinese customers has not started yet.

在中國，我們沒有看到客戶手中有任何庫存積壓。我們最近在那裡。我們的團隊——我們的商業團隊也在報告最近的訪問和我們的客戶。我們目前沒有看到庫存增加。我們也沒有看到港口庫存增加。我們看到所有港口的庫存——從這個意義上講，運作相當正常。而中國客戶預期的補貨還沒有開始。

Our next question comes from Jonathan Brandt with HSBC.

我們的下一個問題來自匯豐銀行的 Jonathan Brandt。

Now I wanted to ask you about your inventory levels. I know, Walter, you're saying that you're not going to increase them, but for several quarters, you've been saying that they're very low. So I'm just wondering, is this the new sort of normal level of inventory? Can you run it at sort of this level of inventory going forward? And you do have significant maintenance downtimes coming up in second quarter and the third quarter. So how should we think about sales volumes for these quarters as it relates to inventory levels, right? I mean, do you see continued destocking from your inventory? Is there enough production in the next couple of quarters to meet your contracted demand. I guess that's the first question.

現在我想問問你的庫存水平。我知道，沃爾特，你是說你不會增加它們，但幾個季度以來，你一直在說它們非常低。所以我只是想知道，這是一種新的正常庫存水平嗎？您能否在這種庫存水平上運行它？第二季度和第三季度確實會有大量的維護停機時間。那麼我們應該如何考慮與庫存水平相關的這些季度的銷量，對嗎？我的意思是，您是否看到庫存繼續減少？未來幾個季度是否有足夠的產量來滿足您的合同需求？我想這是第一個問題。

And my second question, just if you could help me understand sort of where the bull case is for pulp prices over the next couple of years? I mean we have prices now $450 to $480. You're saying that we should expect to see some increased supply in the second half from the new capacity that was brought on. You have -- your new project coming up in the second half of 2024. Do you expect demand to be that much better to sort of soak up the new capacity? Or should we expect this level of pulp prices, call it, $450 to $500 for the next couple of years.

我的第二個問題，能否幫助我了解未來幾年紙漿價格的牛市情況？我的意思是我們現在的價格是 450 到 480 美元。你是說我們應該期望在下半年看到新產能帶來的供應增加。你有 - 你的新項目將於 2024 年下半年推出。你是否預計需求會好得多以吸收新產能？或者我們是否應該預計未來幾年的紙漿價格水平為 450 至 500 美元。

Jonathan, this is Leo here. I will answer both of your questions. As you have -- first one related to Suzano's inventory levels, right? As you have been noticing during our past quarterly presentations, we are reporting always below optimum levels, and we were able to navigate and run our operations with inventories below this optimum side point. This is not ideal as it stresses our system but we have learned throughout the past quarters to navigate and to operate this way. And this is quite important because as we see a more adverse scenario coming into -- towards the second quarter of the year, having this lower inventory levels put us in a more comfortable position.

喬納森，我是里奧。我會回答你的兩個問題。就像你一樣 - 第一個與 Suzano 的庫存水平有關，對吧？正如您在我們過去的季度報告中所注意到的那樣，我們的報告始終低於最佳水平，並且我們能夠在庫存低於最佳側點的情況下導航和運行我們的業務。這並不理想，因為它會給我們的系統帶來壓力，但我們在過去的幾個季度中已經學會了以這種方式進行導航和操作。這一點非常重要，因為隨著我們看到更不利的情況出現——到今年第二季度，較低的庫存水平使我們處於更舒適的位置。

Regarding our long-term view on pricing, we -- again, the long-term view on pricing, we are always very positive on the fundamentals of the pulp segment. Meaning that we see growing demand, not only organic growth, but also demand coming from fiber substitution, favoring hardwood as well as fossil substitution favoring all kinds of pulp as well as we don't -- when we match our long-term expected demand with these 3 variables with the upcoming capacity, it gives us a very comfortable position and therefore, we don't expect that long-term pulp prices should be much different than historic average prices, which, as you know, is around $600 to $620, CIF China rate.

關於我們對定價的長期看法，我們 - 再次，對定價的長期看法，我們對紙漿部分的基本面始終非常樂觀。這意味著我們看到需求不斷增長，不僅是有機增長，還有來自纖維替代品的需求，有利於硬木以及有利於各種紙漿的化石替代品，而我們卻沒有——當我們符合我們的長期預期需求時有了這 3 個變量以及即將到來的產能，它給了我們一個非常舒適的位置，因此，我們預計長期紙漿價格不會與歷史平均價格有太大差異，如您所知，歷史平均價格約為 600 至 620 美元, CIF中國匯率。

Just to complement the point Jonathan, this is Walter telling, we learned from our mistakes. We had a mistake on our commercial policy in 2019 when we had a huge increase in inventories. We decided not to replicate that model anymore. We will keep our inventories at low level. Of course, we can have a marginal change on that, but not significant change on that.

只是為了補充喬納森的觀點，這是沃爾特告訴我們的，我們從錯誤中吸取了教訓。 2019 年我們的商業政策出現了錯誤，當時我們的庫存大幅增加。我們決定不再复制該模型。我們將保持我們的庫存在低水平。當然，我們可以對此進行邊際更改，但不能進行重大更改。

But in the other hand, we have been analyzing all as Leo previously discussed all the dispersion in terms of our cost on our systems. Then we are all the time tracking that situation and tracking what would be the potential implication of pulp prices to stay for a long period of time at lower than the marginal cost of our peers.

但另一方面，我們一直在分析所有內容，因為 Leo 之前討論了我們系統成本方面的所有分散情況。然後我們一直在跟踪這種情況，並跟踪紙漿價格長期保持在低於同行邊際成本的潛在影響。

We believe that the price level that we have right now, it's much below the marginal cost of the fourth quartile. And we don't think that is sustainable for a long period of time. It's an issue. It's how long. I cannot answer that. This situation will be addressed.

我們認為，我們現在的價格水平遠低於第四個四分位數的邊際成本。而且我們認為這在很長一段時間內都是不可持續的。這是一個問題。這是多長時間。我無法回答。這種情況將得到解決。

Okay. And Walter, just to follow up on that point. I know Leo, you mentioned you don't disclose sort of the marginal ton of Suzano and sort of what the return is. But are you comfortable in saying that at these pulp prices that all of the pulp that you're putting into the market is earning your required return? Is it earning a return above the cost of capital?

好的。沃爾特，只是為了跟進這一點。我知道 Leo，你提到你沒有透露 Suzano 的邊際噸數和回報率。但是，您是否願意說，以這些紙漿價格，您投放市場的所有紙漿都能獲得所需的回報？它是否獲得了高於資本成本的回報？

It's not true at this price level that we have right now, certain volumes that we have, 100% of them, we have a positive cash generation but some of them do not give enough on capital, return on capital employed.

在我們現在的這個價格水平上，我們擁有的某些數量是不正確的，其中 100%，我們有積極的現金產生，但其中一些沒有提供足夠的資本，資本回報率。

Okay. But you're not prepared to take those volumes off the market. Is that right?

好的。但是您不准備將這些卷從市場上撤下。是對的嗎？

We will follow very close the market situation, and we do not have a very clear position on that. This quarter and next quarter, we are going to have a lot of annual shutdowns. We are going to have -- by chance the situation that we are going to have lower production volumes due to the situation. But we will follow very close the situation of the market to see what would be our potential commercial reaction.

我們會非常密切地關注市場情況，對此我們沒有非常明確的立場。本季度和下季度，我們將有很多年度停工。我們將有——偶然的情況是，由於這種情況，我們的產量將降低。但我們將非常密切地關注市場情況，看看我們潛在的商業反應是什麼。

Our next question comes from Jens Spiess with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Jens Spiess。

Yes. I just wanted to ask on the integrated producers in China driving additional demand. At what price did you see them starting to make inquiries into orders for -- them placing orders, sorry. And that might give us an indication of what their costs are? And once -- if pulp prices start to increase, when they will again increase production and stop buying from you?

是的。我只是想問問中國的綜合生產商推動了額外的需求。您看到他們以什麼價格開始查詢訂單 - 他們下訂單，抱歉。這可能會讓我們了解他們的成本是多少？還有一次——如果紙漿價格開始上漲，他們什麼時候會再次增加產量並停止向您購買？

And my second question, I know it's not extremely moves the needle. But on the Kimberly-Clark assets, if you could give any color on how, I don't know, like prices per ton and also profitability compares to your current footprint just for modeling purposes and what we should expect there going forward.

我的第二個問題，我知道這並不是非常重要。但是關於金佰利 - 克拉克資產，如果你能給出任何顏色，我不知道，比如每噸價格和盈利能力與你目前的足跡相比，只是為了建模目的，以及我們對未來的預期。

Jens, this is Leo to answer the first question you have made related to at what price should Chinese integrated BHKP and paper producers start reducing or stopping their production. This is very difficult to answer because there is a big dispersion on the cash cost of these producers, which add up to 8 million or 9 million tons.

Jens，我是 Leo，要回答你提出的第一個問題，即中國綜合 BHKP 和造紙商應該以什麼價格開始減產或停產。這很難回答，因為這些生產商的現金成本存在很大差異，加起來有 800 萬噸或 900 萬噸。

We were recently at Shanghai Pulp Week, one of the presentations done by a Chinese company, which is very much aligned with the knowledge that we have and with our view as well show that at that time, the production or the cash cost of pulp cash costs of these integrated mills ranged between $600 to $700.

我們最近參加了上海紙漿週，這是一家中國公司所做的演講之一，這與我們所掌握的知識和我們的觀點非常一致，也表明當時紙漿現金的生產或現金成本這些綜合工廠的成本在 600 到 700 美元之間。

I believe there is a slight decrease on that. We saw recently some wood prices falling, which we believe will affect the cash cost, not only of this integrated guys, but also from market pulp players in $20 to $30 from what we had seen before.

我相信這會略有下降。我們最近看到一些木材價格下跌，我們認為這將影響現金成本，不僅是這些綜合企業的現金成本，而且從我們之前看到的 20 美元到 30 美元的市場紙漿參與者也會受到影響。

So with that said, our expectation is that their cash cost today ranges from $575, $580 to up to $680. So it's quite high. But the moment that they're going to start either reducing or stopping their pulp production is very hard to say.

所以話雖如此，我們的預期是他們今天的現金成本在 575 美元、580 美元到 680 美元之間。所以是相當高的。但他們開始減少或停止紙漿生產的那一刻很難說。

Thanks for your question. This is Luis Bueno answering regarding the Kimberly-Clark question. Kimberly-Clark Tissue products here in Brazil, they usually sell with a premium 20% to 30% above the average of the market. And this is throughout all the channels and also the regions in Brazil. So these premium as on the product is something that we will also continue to have in the markets from June on.

謝謝你的問題。我是 Luis Bueno 就 Kimberly-Clark 問題的回答。在巴西，金佰利紙巾產品的售價通常比市場平均水平高出 20% 至 30%。這貫穿於所有渠道以及巴西的各個地區。因此，從 6 月開始，我們也將在市場上繼續擁有這些產品溢價。

Our next question comes from Marcio Farid with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Marcio Farid。

A couple of questions on my side. Maybe the first one to Fabio. Fabio, how should we think about the paper business? I mean, historically, that is a very high correlation in terms of EBITDA per ton profitability for both pulp and paper, but paper has been clearly surprising to the upside really in the last few years, right? So just trying to understand as we go into this kind of more challenging area for pulp, can we expect the paper business to behave in a more stable way. We've seen European -- we can expect quite high, European producers have reported basically 0 EBITDA, right for the first quarter for the rough paper business, right. So just trying to understand if you can see some offsetting for pulp in terms of paper EBITDA.

我這邊有幾個問題。也許是法比奧的第一個。法比奧，我們應該如何看待造紙業務？我的意思是，從歷史上看，就紙漿和紙張的每噸 EBITDA 盈利能力而言，這是一個非常高的相關性，但在過去幾年中，紙張的增長確實令人驚訝，對吧？因此，當我們進入這種更具挑戰性的紙漿領域時，我們只是想了解一下，我們能否期望造紙業務以更穩定的方式運行。我們已經看到了歐洲——我們可以期待相當高，歐洲生產商報告的 EBITDA 基本上為 0，這對於粗紙業務的第一季度是正確的，正確的。因此，只是想了解您是否可以在紙張 EBITDA 方面看到紙漿的一些抵消。

And then the second question, I know this has been quite widely discussed in this call. But just thinking about as you go into a heavy downtime season in the second quarter, is there any -- I mean, anything that we should think about in terms of longer maintenance maybe because, obviously, at current market, you kind of lose the hurry to do the maintenance downtime. I don't necessarily mean to do 10 days, maybe shifting 20 or whatever. I mean, is it a good time to take a breath and maybe do more work in the mills that you do if you had spare time? I think that's the point.

然後是第二個問題，我知道這已在本次電話會議中得到廣泛討論。但是想想當你在第二季度進入一個嚴重的停機季節時，有沒有什麼 - 我的意思是，我們應該考慮在更長的維護方面的任何事情可能是因為，顯然，在當前市場上，你有點失去了趕快去做檢修停機。我的意思不一定是做 10 天，也許換 20 天之類的。我的意思是，現在是喘口氣的好時機嗎？如果你有空閒時間，也許可以在工廠裡做更多的工作？我認為這就是重點。

Marcio, it's Fabio here. Thanks for the question. Regarding the paper EBITDA that we have had in the first quarter and our -- how do we see the business, you're right. There's high correlation between pulp prices and paper price, but that is valid only for international markets.

馬爾西奧，我是法比奧。謝謝你的問題。關於我們第一季度的紙質 EBITDA 以及我們 - 我們如何看待業務，你是對的。紙漿價格與紙張價格之間存在高度相關性，但這僅適用於國際市場。

In the domestic market here, the market is more consolidated, and we have some business drivers like the national paper -- the national books from the government that drives demand in the local market. So there's -- in the domestic market, the correlation goes more with the exchange rate than pulp prices.

在這裡的國內市場，市場更加整合，我們有一些商業驅動力，比如國家報紙——來自政府的國家書籍，推動了當地市場的需求。因此，在國內市場上，與匯率的相關性比紙漿價格的相關性更大。

And for the last 2 years, we have had a situation where the paper prices in international markets were above our domestic markets and this is not usual. So what we're seeing now, we're seeing a correction of the domestic market prices upwards. We have done a price implementation at the end of the year. We have been successfully implementing that in the first quarter. And we are seeing a correction downwards in the prices in the international markets.

在過去的 2 年裡，我們遇到了國際市場的紙張價格高於國內市場的情況，這並不常見。所以我們現在看到的是，我們看到國內市場價格向上修正。我們在年底做了價格執行。我們已經在第一季度成功實施了這一點。我們看到國際市場價格出現下調。

So all in all, we start the year in a much better place than what we started last year in both markets in international and domestically, but the trend for international stay opposite for the domestic market. And as we have our -- the bulk of our sales, more than 70% in the domestic markets, we are still hopeful that we should see reasonable health year for the paper business. Going back to the seasonality that we have had pre-COVID in where we build inventories in the first half of the year to sustain the demand in the second half of the year.

因此，總而言之，我們今年在國際和國內市場的開局都比去年好得多，但國際市場的趨勢與國內市場相反。由於我們有我們的大部分銷售額，超過 70% 在國內市場，我們仍然希望我們應該看到造紙業務合理健康的一年。回到 COVID 之前的季節性，我們在上半年建立庫存以維持下半年的需求。

Marcio, it's Walter answering your second question. Thank you for the question. We are keeping our annual shutdown as planned. We are not going to have any kind of extension on the period of the shutdowns that we have at the plant. It's very important to mention that at Jacarei, we had planned a little bit longer period of time due to the retrofit that we are doing in our plant over there. But just was planned before, and we are not going to change that.

Marcio，我是 Walter，正在回答你的第二個問題。感謝你的提問。我們將按計劃進行年度停工。我們不會對工廠的停工期進行任何形式的延長。值得一提的是，在 Jacarei，由於我們正在那裡的工廠進行改造，我們計劃了更長的時間。但這只是之前的計劃，我們不會改變它。

Thank you. Since there are no further questions, I would like to turn the floor back over to the company's CEO, for final comments. Please, Mr. Walter Schalka, you may proceed.

謝謝。由於沒有其他問題，我想將發言權交還給公司的首席執行官，以徵求最後的意見。 Walter Schalka 先生，請繼續。

Thank you very much for joining us for this session. It's very important to reinforce the point to overview that our financial discipline and capital discipline will continue in the next coming quarters and years. Even on a very asset scenario, we are keeping our CapEx that we have planned for this year and next year.

非常感謝您參加我們的本次會議。強調我們的財務紀律和資本紀律將在未來幾個季度和幾年繼續下去的觀點非常重要。即使在非常資產的情況下，我們也會保留我們為今年和明年計劃的資本支出。

We are very pleased with the Cerrado project that is going to transform ourselves into an even more competitive company for the future. I'm very pleased to see that we have new avenues for the future. The new business in one side in vertical integration, on the digital business in the other side and preparing the company for the future. I'm very pleased with the developments of the company and very clear and transparency to overview on our trends for the future. Thank you very much, and have a very nice weekend.

我們對 Cerrado 項目感到非常滿意，它將把我們轉變為一家未來更具競爭力的公司。我很高興看到我們為未來開闢了新的途徑。一方面是垂直整合的新業務，另一方面是數字業務，為公司的未來做準備。我對公司的發展以及對我們未來趨勢的概述非常清晰和透明感到非常滿意。非常感謝，祝週末愉快。

Thank you. Suzano first quarter results conference call is finished. Have a nice day. You may disconnect your lines at this time.

謝謝。 Suzano 第一季度業績電話會議結束。祝你今天過得愉快。此時您可以斷開線路。