Grupo Supervielle S.A. (SUPV) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Grupo Supervielle's fourth quarter 2025 earnings call. I'm Ana Bartesaghi, Treasurer and IRO. Today's conference call is being recorded. (Event Instructions) Speaking today are Patricio Supervielle, our Chairman and CEO; and Mariano Biglia, our CFO.

早安，歡迎參加 Grupo Supervielle 2025 年第四季財報電話會議。我是 Ana Bartesaghi，財務長兼投資人關係主管（IRO）。今天的電話會議將被錄音。（活動說明）今天出席發言的有我們的董事長兼執行長 Patricio Supervielle，以及財務長 Mariano Biglia。

Gustavo Paco Manriquez, Banco Supervielle's CEO; and Diego Pizzulli, CEO of Inverted Online, will also be available during the Q&A session. Before we begin, please note this call may include forward-looking statements. Please refer to our earnings release and SEC filings for further details.

Banco Supervielle 執行長 Gustavo Paco Manriquez，以及 Inverted Online 執行長 Diego Pizzulli 也將在問答環節中提供回應。在開始之前，請注意本次電話會議可能包含前瞻性陳述。更多細節請參閱我們的財報新聞稿與向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交的文件。

Thank you, Ana. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. In the fourth quarter, we delivered results within our guidance range and positioned the balance sheet for industry recovery. The period was marked by elevated system-wide credit stress, which we were not immune to. However, in several key areas, we outperformed the industry.

謝謝你，Ana。各位早安，感謝今天加入我們。在第四季，我們的業績落在指引區間內，並為產業復甦調整了資產負債表配置。本期面臨全系統信用壓力升高，我們也無法置身事外。不過，在幾個關鍵領域，我們的表現優於同業。

Let me walk you through the key drivers of our quarter results. First, loan growth continued to outperform the industry. Total loans grew 8% sequentially and 37% year-over-year. Growth was led by corporates, which expanded 25% quarter-over-quarter and now represents 63% of the portfolio. Retail balances declined sequentially as we prioritize risk-adjusted returns and tightened underwriting in response to the more volatile environment.

我來帶各位看一下本季業績的主要驅動因素。第一，放款成長持續優於同業。總放款較前一季成長 8%，年增 37%。成長主要由企業金融帶動，季增 25%，目前占投資組合的 63%。零售放款餘額較前一季下降，因我們優先考量風險調整後報酬，並因應更具波動的環境而收緊授信承作標準。

Second, Asset quality reflects the peak of the stress cycle. The NPL ratio increased to 5%, consistent with industry trends, rapid loan growth since 2024 and the significantly restrictive monetary conditions early in the year. Cost of risk reached the upper end of our guidance range, also reflecting updated macroeconomic assumptions under IFRS 9. Third, funding remained resilient despite strategic deleveraging. Total deposits declined sequentially as we reduced wholesale institutional funding to optimize the balance sheet.

第二，資產品質反映壓力循環的高峰。不良放款（NPL）比率上升至 5%，與同業趨勢一致，亦反映自 2024 年以來放款快速成長，以及年初顯著緊縮的貨幣環境。風險成本達到我們指引區間的上緣，同時也反映在 IFRS 9 下更新的總體經濟假設。第三，儘管我們策略性去槓桿，資金來源仍具韌性。總存款較前一季下降，因我們降低批發型機構資金以優化資產負債表。

In contrast, core transactional balances remain resilient. US dollar deposits increased 42% year-over-year, gaining 60 basis points of market share, while remunerated accounts continued gaining traction among payroll and SME clients.

相較之下，核心交易性存款餘額仍具韌性。美元存款年增 42%，市占率提升 60 個基點；同時，計息帳戶在薪轉與中小企業（SME）客群中的採用度持續提升。

Fourth, we reported an attributable net loss of Argentine's AR 19.5 billion, narrowing significantly from the third quarter loss. The improvement reflected margin recovery and strict cost control despite elevated cost of risk based on updated macro assumptions and system-wide credit stress.

第四，我們認列歸屬於母公司股東的淨損為阿根廷披索 AR 195 億，較第三季虧損明顯收斂。改善主要反映利差回升與嚴格的成本控管，儘管在更新的宏觀假設與全系統信用壓力下，風險成本仍處高位。

Encouragingly, NIM rebounded sequentially, supported by lower funding costs and better investment portfolio yields, while personnel expenses declined 6% sequentially. Importantly, CET1 strengthened to 15.4%, up 220 basis points quarter-over-quarter, preserving flexibility for 2026 growth.

令人鼓舞的是，淨利差（NIM）較前一季反彈，受惠於資金成本下降與投資組合收益率改善；同時，人事費用較前一季下降 6%。更重要的是，普通股權一級資本比率（CET1）提升至 15.4%，較前一季上升 220 個基點，為 2026 年成長保留彈性。

In sum, 4Q '25 was a transition quarter marked by strong loan growth, peak cost of risk, margin recovery and solid capital. Let me now turn to the broader environment. The fourth quarter marked the peak of an exceptionally tight monetary policy, followed by early signs of normalization after the midterm elections.

總結而言，2025 年第四季是一個過渡季度，特徵是放款強勁成長、風險成本觸頂、利差回升以及資本水準穩健。接下來我談談更廣泛的外部環境。第四季標誌著極度緊縮貨幣政策的高峰，期中選舉後也出現初步正常化跡象。

Leading up to the elections, high interest rates, high real interest rates and elevated reserve requirements significantly constrained liquidity across the financial system. While these measures helped stabilize the exchange rate and contain inflation, they weigh on margins, credit demand and asset quality.

在選舉前，高利率、偏高的實質利率以及提高的存款準備率，顯著壓縮了整個金融體系的流動性。雖然這些措施有助於穩定匯率並抑制通膨，但也對利差、信貸需求與資產品質造成壓力。

Following the October elections, conditions began to improve. The strengthened legislative mandate reinforced the government's reform agenda. Since then, we have observed declining interest rates gradually improving liquidity and a recovery in sovereign bond prices.

10 月選舉之後，情勢開始改善。更強的立法授權強化了政府的改革議程。自那之後，我們觀察到利率下行、流動性逐步改善，以及主權債券價格回升。

And while reserve requirements remain elevated, they have started to ease. Looking into 2026, the foundation for financial recovery is in place. Fiscal discipline continues, FX reserve accumulation supports stability and this inflation should allow nominal rates to decline.

此外，雖然存款準備率仍處高位，但已開始鬆動。展望 2026 年，金融復甦的基礎已經到位。財政紀律持續、外匯存底累積支撐穩定，而通膨下行應可使名目利率下降。

As monetary conditions normalize, we expect economic activity to recover gradually, creating the basis for renewed credit expansion. Policy execution will remain critical, maintaining this inflation, normalizing monetary conditions and advising FX liberalization in an (inaudible) are essential to consolidating recovery.

隨著貨幣環境正常化，我們預期經濟活動將逐步復甦，為新一輪信貸擴張奠定基礎。政策執行仍將至關重要：維持通膨下行、使貨幣環境回歸正常，並在（聽不清）推進外匯自由化，都是鞏固復甦所必需的。

If that path is maintained, we believe it should translate into lower volatility, more stable funding conditions and greater predictability for businesses and households. In that environment, a disciplined and well-organized banking system will play a central role, and we believe Supervielle is well positioned to participate in that expansion. Let me briefly close with strategy. We continue executing on the road map presented last year centered on profitable growth, targeted segments and ecosystem integration. At the core is a customer-centric and technology-enabled model.

若能維持這一路徑，我們相信將帶來更低的波動、更穩定的資金條件，以及企業與家庭更高的可預測性。在那樣的環境下，紀律嚴謹且組織健全的銀行體系將扮演核心角色，而我們相信 Supervielle 已做好準備參與這波擴張。最後我簡要談談策略。我們持續推進去年提出的路線圖，聚焦於獲利性成長、目標客群與生態系整合。其核心是一個以客戶為中心、並由科技賦能的營運模式。

At the bank, our purpose is clear: to accompany customers in their daily lives with simple and agile financial experiences. That purpose guide the evolution of the Supervielle app as a true financial hub, integrating payments, savings, investments and services into a unified experience. More than 70% of transactions are digital, reinforcing both engagement and operating efficiency. Our AI-powered WhatsApp interactions and the integration of the Supervielle store with Mercado Libre expand distribution while preserving our tech and touch model. The remunerated account in pesos and US dollars for payroll and SME accounts continue to strengthen our funding base, deepen primary relationships and increase client balances. Adoption has been solid, reinforcing the quality and stability of our deposit mix. Integration between the bank and EOL is accelerating. Cross-selling initiatives are bringing high-value brokerage clients into the banking platform while offering our banking base seamless access to investment products. At EOL, our strategic focus is clear.

在銀行端，我們的使命很清楚：以簡單、敏捷的金融體驗陪伴客戶的日常生活。這一使命引導 Supervielle App 演進為真正的金融樞紐，將支付、儲蓄、投資與服務整合為一致的體驗。超過 70% 的交易為數位化，進一步強化客戶黏著度與營運效率。我們以 AI 驅動的 WhatsApp 互動，以及 Supervielle 商店與 Mercado Libre 的整合，在維持「科技＋人員服務」模式的同時擴大通路。面向薪轉與中小企業帳戶的披索與美元計息帳戶，持續強化我們的資金基礎、深化主要往來關係並提升客戶餘額。採用情況穩健，進一步強化我們存款結構的品質與穩定性。銀行與 EOL 的整合正在加速。交叉銷售計畫正將高價值的券商客戶導入銀行平台，同時也讓我們的銀行客群可無縫取得投資產品。在 EOL 方面，我們的策略重點也很明確。

As Argentina leading retail digital broker, EOL operates a scalable technology-driven platform that allow us to grow assets and revenues with strong operating leverage. We see a significant opportunity in the development of the Argentina's domestic capital market, which remains at an early stage relative to the size of the economy and the financial savings potential. As macro conditions normalize, we expect deeper financial intermediation and greater participation in investment products. To capture that opportunity, we are focusing more on affluent clients, corporations and IFAs, segments that allow us to accelerate growth in assets under custody while enhancing the quality and stability of our revenue mix. Our objective is not only to grow accounts, but to scale assets under custody in a disciplined and profitable way, leveraging our digital capabilities, ecosystem integration with the bank and a differentiated product offering across local and international markets.

作為阿根廷領先的零售數位券商，EOL 營運一個可擴展、以科技驅動的平台，使我們能在具備強勁營運槓桿的情況下擴大資產與收入。我們看到阿根廷國內資本市場發展存在顯著機會；相較於經濟規模與金融儲蓄潛力，其仍處於早期階段。隨著宏觀環境正常化，我們預期金融中介將更為深化，投資產品的參與度也將提高。為把握此一機會，我們將更聚焦於高資產客戶、企業與獨立理財顧問（IFA）等客群；這些區隔有助於我們加速託管資產（AUC）成長，同時提升收入結構的品質與穩定性。我們的目標不僅是增加帳戶數，更要以紀律且具獲利性的方式擴大託管資產規模，運用我們的數位能力、與銀行的生態系整合，以及橫跨本地與國際市場的差異化產品組合。

Looking ahead, our priorities are aligned with Argentina's normalization cycle. At the bank, we are positioned to capture the next credit expansion as monetary conditions normalize and liquidity requirements ease. Supported by a strong capital base and disciplined risk management, we will scale corporate lending across the value chains of dynamic industries and selectively expand retail credit as consumer confidence strengthens. At the same time, we will continue reinforcing the Supervielle app as a core financial hub of our ecosystem, driving engagement, efficiency and operating leverage. At EOL, the opportunity is equally structural.

展望未來，我們的優先事項與阿根廷的正常化週期保持一致。在銀行端，隨著貨幣環境正常化及流動性要求放寬，我們已就位以把握下一波信貸擴張。在強健的資本基礎與嚴謹的風險管理支持下，我們將在具活力產業的價值鏈中擴大企業放款，並在消費者信心增強之際，有選擇性地擴張零售信貸。同時，我們將持續強化 Supervielle App 作為我們生態系的核心金融樞紐，推動互動、效率與營運槓桿。在 EOL 方面，機會同樣具有結構性。

As inflation declines and risk appetite returns, Argentina's domestic capital market has significant room to expand. Across both platforms, AI is becoming a transversal capability, enhancing productivity, optimizing processes and elevating the client experience. With that, I will turn the call over to Mariano to review our financial performance in greater detail.

隨著通膨下降、風險偏好回升，阿根廷國內資本市場仍有顯著的擴張空間。在兩個平台上，AI 正成為橫向能力，提升生產力、優化流程並提升客戶體驗。接下來我將把電話會議交給 Mariano，請他更詳細地回顧我們的財務表現。

Thank you, Patricio, and good day to everyone. Let's turn to slide 6. We reported an attributable net loss of nearly CLP20 billion in the fourth quarter, improving materially from the CLP55 billion loss in the prior quarter. November marked a turning point with declining rates supporting better margins towards year-end. Client net financial income increased 21% sequentially, driven by lower funding costs combined with higher loan volumes and yields despite a greater share of commercial loans in the mix.

謝謝你，Patricio，也向各位問好。我們來看第 6 張投影片。我們在第四季認列歸屬於母公司之淨損近 200 億智利披索（CLP），較前一季 550 億 CLP 的虧損明顯改善。11 月成為轉折點，利率下行支撐年末前的較佳利差。客戶淨利息收入較前季成長 21%，主要受惠於資金成本下降，並在商業放款占比提高的情況下，仍因放款量與收益率上升而帶動成長。

Market-related net financial income improved by PHP85 billion sequentially, reflecting lower funding costs and improved trading results as sovereign bond prices recovered and investment portfolio yields normalized. Inflation adjustment increased 10%. Net fee income rose modestly sequentially, supported by brokerage activity. Personnel, administrative and G&A increased 6% sequentially, partly reflecting seasonal factors and commercial initiatives. For the full year, however, expenses declined 9% in real terms, confirming structural efficiency gains.

市場相關淨利息收入較前季增加 850 億菲律賓披索（PHP），反映資金成本下降，以及主權債券價格回升、投資組合收益率正常化所帶動的交易結果改善。通膨調整增加 10%。淨手續費收入較前季小幅上升，受經紀業務活動支撐。人事、行政及一般管理費用較前季增加 6%，部分反映季節性因素與商業推動措施。然而就全年而言，費用以實質口徑下降 9%，確認結構性效率提升。

Loan loss provisions increased 75% sequentially, reflecting higher system-wide delinquency and to a lesser extent, updated macroeconomic assumptions within our ECL framework. This was the primary driver of the quarterly loss. Turning to the loan portfolio. Loans increased 8% sequentially, outperforming 2% system growth and 37% year-over-year, in line with the industry. Commercial lending drove expansion, up 25% sequentially and 64% year-over-year, representing 63% of the portfolio.

放款損失準備較前季增加 75%，反映全系統逾期上升，並在較小程度上反映我們在 ECL 架構下更新的總體經濟假設。這是本季虧損的主要驅動因素。接著看放款組合。放款較前季成長 8%，優於系統 2% 的成長，年增 37%，與產業趨勢一致。商業放款帶動擴張，較前季成長 25%、年增 64%，占放款組合 63%。

Growth was concentrated in working capital and export-related sectors where risk-adjusted returns remain attractive. Retail loans declined 4% sequentially and increased 8% year-over-year, reflecting stricter underwriting standards and deliberate moderation in origination amid elevated rates and higher system-wide delinquency. Our goal remains to return to a more balanced retail corporate mix as credit conditions stabilize. Turning to asset quality. The NPL ratio increased to 5% from 3.9% in the prior quarter, broadly in line with industry trends, reflecting higher delinquency levels amid system-wide credit stress and the seasoning of prior retail growth.

成長主要集中於營運資金與出口相關產業，這些領域的風險調整後報酬仍具吸引力。零售放款較前季下降 4%、年增 8%，反映更嚴格的授信標準，以及在利率偏高與全系統逾期上升下，我們刻意放緩承作。我們的目標仍是在信貸環境穩定後，回到更均衡的零售與企業組合。接著看資產品質。不良放款（NPL）比率由前一季的 3.9% 上升至 5%，大致符合產業趨勢，反映在全系統信貸壓力下逾期水準提高，以及先前零售成長的存續期效應。

Net cost of risk rose to 10.4% in the quarter. For the full year, net cost of risk was 6.2% Coverage remained sound at 112%. Importantly, trends began improving toward year-end. December and January trends reflect the outcome of our collection and refinancing initiatives at the branch level, targeting individual and SME customers, reducing migration into advanced delinquency buckets and showing moderation in net cost of risk. While we remain cautious, current indicators suggest the fourth quarter likely marked the peak in provisioning under current assumptions.

本季淨風險成本上升至 10.4%。全年淨風險成本為 6.2%，覆蓋率仍維持穩健於 112%。重要的是，趨勢在年末開始改善。12 月與 1 月的走勢反映我們在分行層級推動的催收與再融資措施成果，聚焦個人與中小企業客戶，降低向更嚴重逾期區間的遷徙，並顯示淨風險成本趨於緩和。雖然我們仍保持審慎，但目前指標顯示，在現行假設下第四季很可能已是提存的高峰。

Moving to deposits. Deliberate balance sheet optimization resulted in a 6% sequential decline in total deposits, particularly in higher cost wholesale institutional funding as we actively adjusted our liability mix to improve funding quality and reduce cost volatility. By contrast, core transactional balances increased significantly with checking accounts up 39% and retail savings accounts rising 29%, supported by December seasonality and the continued traction of our remunerated account strategy. Year-over-year, retail and commercial deposits increased 17% in real terms, reflecting stronger primary relationships and funding stability. Turning to Page 10.

接著看存款。我們有意進行資產負債表最佳化，使總存款較前季下降 6%，尤其是成本較高的批發型機構資金；我們主動調整負債結構，以提升資金品質並降低成本波動。相較之下，核心交易性餘額顯著增加，支票存款成長 39%，零售儲蓄存款上升 29%，受 12 月季節性因素與我們付息帳戶策略持續奏效所支撐。以年對年而言，零售與商業存款以實質口徑成長 17%，反映更強的主辦往來關係與資金穩定性。接著看第 10 頁。

Net financial income reached ARS246 billion in the quarter, up 82% sequentially and 1% year-over-year, recovering from extraordinary short-term pressures in the prior quarter. This was driven mainly by 3 factors: First, peso cost of funds declined approximately 400 basis points as deposits reprice following the drop in market rates, coupled with lower wholesale funding. Second, market-related NIM improved materially, rising to 26% from 11% in the prior quarter, driven by bond price recovery and the less volatile rate environment. Third, loan portfolio NIM improved 1.7-percentage-points to 16.9% sequentially as we reprice the credit book. Let's now turn to the next slide to review our perspectives for the year.

本季淨利息收入達 2,460 億阿根廷披索（ARS），較前季成長 82%、年增 1%，自前一季的短期異常壓力中回升。主要由三項因素驅動：第一，隨著市場利率下滑帶動存款重新定價，加上批發資金下降，披索資金成本約下降 400 個基點。第二，市場相關淨利差（NIM）明顯改善，由前一季的 11% 升至 26%，受惠於債券價格回升與利率環境波動降低。第三，隨著我們對信貸資產重新定價，放款組合 NIM 較前季提升 1.7 個百分點至 16.9%。接著我們看下一張投影片，回顧我們對今年的展望。

We expect real growth in loans between 25% and 30%, led by corporate lending as financial intermediation normalizes. Retail credit is expected to progressively regain momentum alongside improvements in economic activity, employment and disposable income. Under current regulations, peso-denominated loans are expected to grow faster than dollar loans. Deposits are projected to expand between 20% and 25%, supported by stronger client relationships. In our base case, peso deposits are expected to lift growth, while the recent implementation of the tax amnesty law provides additional upside potential for dollar balances.

我們預期放款實質成長介於 25% 至 30%，主要由企業放款帶動，因金融中介功能逐步正常化。隨著經濟活動、就業與可支配所得改善，零售信貸預期將逐步恢復動能。在現行法規下，披索計價放款預期將比美元放款成長更快。存款預估成長 20% 至 25%，受更強的客戶關係支撐。在我們的基本情境下，披索存款預期將帶動成長；同時，近期實施的稅務赦免法也為美元餘額帶來額外上行潛力。

For asset quality, we expect the NPL ratio to range between 5% and 6% for the year with a temporary peak in first Q '26, reflecting the lag effects of last year's volatility. Underlying trends are stabilizing. Cost of risk is projected between 6% and 6.5%, consistent with normalization. NIM is expected to range between 14% and 16%. While interest rate volatility and reserve requirements remain high, improving funding dynamics and disciplined asset pricing should support margins.

在資產品質方面，我們預期全年 NPL 比率介於 5% 至 6%，並可能在 2026 年第一季出現暫時性高點，反映去年波動的遞延影響。基本趨勢正在趨於穩定。風險成本預估介於 6% 至 6.5%，符合正常化走勢。NIM 預期介於 14% 至 16%。雖然利率波動與法定準備金要求仍偏高，但資金動態改善與嚴謹的資產定價應可支撐利差。

A temporary shift towards corporate lending may moderate margins, but positions the balance sheet for sustainable growth. Turning to slide 10. We expect net fee income to expand around 5% in real terms, driven by banking and brokerage activity. Structural operating expenses are anticipated to remain broadly stable in real terms, reflecting sustained cost discipline and headcount efficiencies, partially offset by depreciation and higher taxable revenues. In terms of profitability, we project full year ROE guidance of 4% to 9% range, reflecting upside opportunities from macro improvements and the relaxation of restrictive monetary policies, stronger credit growth, the increased opportunity to expand affluent clients in EOL and additional efficiency opportunities at the bank.

短期內轉向企業放款可能使利差趨於溫和，但可使資產負債表定位於可持續成長。接著看第 10 張投影片。我們預期淨手續費收入以實質口徑成長約 5%，由銀行與經紀業務活動帶動。結構性營運費用預期以實質口徑大致持平，反映持續的成本紀律與人力效率提升，部分將被折舊與較高的應稅收入所抵銷。在獲利能力方面，我們預估全年 ROE 指引區間為 4% 至 9%，反映總體環境改善與限制性貨幣政策放寬所帶來的上行機會、更強的信貸成長、在 EOL 擴展高資產客群的機會增加，以及銀行端額外的效率提升機會。

We expect ROE to improve sequentially as margins recover and operating leverage builds. Lastly, we anticipate ending the year with a CET1 ratio of between 11% and 13%. This concludes our prepared remarks. We are now opening the floor for Q&A.

我們預期隨著利差回升與營運槓桿逐步顯現，ROE 將按季改善。最後，我們預期年底 CET1 比率將介於 11% 至 13% 之間。以上為我們事先準備的發言。現在開放問答。

(Operator Instructions) Brian Flores with Citibank.

(接線員指示) 花旗銀行的 Brian Flores。

I have a question on capital. Your core equity Tier 1 ratio rose about 15% in the quarter. And we saw, as you mentioned, it was aided by the election recovery and some shifts in the investment portfolio. So given that you mentioned 2026 is slated for a renewed expansion in lending I just wanted to check with you how much of this capital buffer is truly structural? And how much do you think it's a temporary reflection of the higher real rates and the low risk-weighted asset density.

我想就資本提一個問題。你們的普通股權第一類資本比率（CET1）在本季上升約 15%。而且如你所提到，這受惠於選後復甦以及投資組合的一些調整。因此，鑑於你提到 2026 年預計將再度擴張放款，我想確認一下：這個資本緩衝有多少是真正具結構性的？又有多少你認為只是較高實質利率與較低風險加權資產密度所帶來的暫時性反映？

I just wanted to understand if we could see this ratio revert towards the 13% levels we saw now that the growth reaccelerates. And also, if I may, if you are planning on changing anything regarding your dividend policy here on capital.

我想了解，隨著成長再度加速，這個比率是否可能回落到我們曾看到的 13% 水準。另外，如果可以的話，想請問你們是否計畫在資本方面調整股利政策？

Thank you, Brian, for your question. Regarding the capital level, as you said, we ended the year with about 15% of Tier 1 capital ratio. And with that, we can fund growth expected for 2026 and according to our guidance by the end of the year, the capital ratio will be in a range between 11% and 13%. The increase in the capital ratio compared to September is in part related to off-balance sheet losses because as of September, our investment portfolio had lower market prices than said balance sheet lows that was reduced during the fourth quarter. And that has an impact on deferred tax assets, which are (inaudible) so this deduction or most of it, that's why we could increase our capital seeing that the result for the quarter was negative and we had a loan growth in the quarter.

謝謝你，Brian，謝謝你的提問。關於資本水準，如你所說，我們年底的第一類資本比率約為 15%。在此水準下，我們可以支應 2026 年預期的成長；並且依照我們的指引，到今年年底資本比率將落在 11% 至 13% 的區間。相較於 9 月資本比率的上升，部分與表外損失有關，因為截至 9 月，我們的投資組合市價低於資產負債表所反映的低點，而這一差異在第四季有所收斂。這也會影響遞延所得稅資產，而該項扣減（聽不清）因此這項扣減或其大部分消失，這也是為何即使本季結果為負且本季放款仍成長，我們仍能提高資本比率。

So from now on, that those extraordinary movements of balance sheet results were mostly neutralized. So we don't expect big changes that part of the composition of capital during 2026. The capital level will be set by reinvestment of utilities for profit and the loan growth that we now foresee between 25% and 30% in real terms for the year. So those are the dynamics on the Tier 1 ratio that we see for 2026. And then regarding to dividends, as we had a negative result in 2025, we are not expecting pay dividends in 2026.

因此從現在開始，這些資產負債表結果的非常態波動大多已被中和。所以我們不預期 2026 年資本組成的那一部分會有很大的變化。資本水準將由盈餘的再投資以及我們目前預估全年以實質計算介於 25% 至 30% 的放款成長所決定。以上就是我們對 2026 年第一類資本比率動態的看法。至於股利，由於我們 2025 年為虧損，我們預期 2026 年不會發放股利。

So profits during the year will be reinvested in 2027, we will decide or the shareholders will decide on profits of 2026. But so far for the next shareholders meeting, we are not recommending any (inaudible).

因此，年度獲利將在 2027 年再投資；屆時我們或股東將就 2026 年的盈餘作出決議。但就目前而言，在下一次股東會上，我們不建議任何(聽不清)。

BasicallZ, sorry, to complement. So we believe that with our current capital base, it is sufficient to fund loan growth projected for 2026, while remaining comfortably between the range of CET1 that we announced.

基本上，抱歉，補充一下。我們認為以目前的資本基礎，足以支應 2026 年預估的放款成長，同時也能讓 CET1 維持在我們所公布的區間內，且相當寬裕。

Perfect. And if I just follow up, Patricio, Mariano and team, we have this sense speaking with investors that maybe there are limited catalysts for more enthusiasm in maybe the Argentine bank space. Just wanted to -- of course, Patricio, I think you mentioned in your remarks, maybe the FX liberalization, maybe the reforms. But if you could elaborate a bit on what do you think could maybe help a bit on the market sentiment, right, particularly for the banking segment, I think it would be great color here.

很好。我再追問一下，Patricio、Mariano 以及團隊，我們與投資人交流時的感覺是，阿根廷銀行股領域可能缺乏能讓市場更有熱情的催化劑。我想請教——當然 Patricio，你在發言中提到可能包括外匯自由化、可能包括改革。但如果你能再多談一些，你認為有哪些因素可能有助於改善市場情緒，特別是對銀行板塊，我想會是很好的補充說明。

Well, I think that there are various catalysts. But let me first start with the state of the union address that was given by President Milei on Sunday. We have seen a very confident President talking to the Chamber and with -- and also stating that he is going to go for an extremely reform in agenda, a very, very ambitious performance agenda, which I think this is very good because it encompasses a lot of institutional building for Argentina. So I think this is positive. And what I think besides all the laws that have either been passed like labor reform or probably, I think in the next -- in the near future, the glaciers law, which is going to help for investment in the mining industry.

我認為有多個催化劑。不過我先從總統 Milei 週日發表的國情咨文談起。我們看到一位非常有信心的總統在國會發言，並且表示他將推動極具改革性的議程，一個非常、非常雄心勃勃的施政議程；我認為這非常好，因為它涵蓋了阿根廷許多制度建設。所以我認為這是正面的。此外，除了已通過的各項法律，例如勞動改革之外，我也認為在接下來——在不久的將來——冰川法案可能會通過，這將有助於礦業投資。

I think that certain -- I think it will be essential if the government at a certain point decides to go to the top international markets, that will be a very strong signal for refinancing the treasury, but at the same time, impacting on the domestic rates and eventually lowering liquidity requirements because at this stage, the government is securing a restrictive monetary policy because they want to be reserves, they don't want to have a volatility on the dollar. And so I think it's all connected in a way. So that by itself would be one of the factors instilling confidence in the banking system. At the same time, with all these laws passed, particularly the fiscal reform and what's going on in the dynamic industries, I think it will improve the job market and eventually, this will also help instill more confidence. But I understand your question, and I am positive, but we need to wait.

我認為某些——我認為如果政府在某個時間點決定重返國際主要市場，將會是非常強烈的訊號，有助於國庫再融資；同時也會影響國內利率，並最終降低流動性要求，因為在現階段，政府正在維持緊縮的貨幣政策，因為他們希望累積外匯存底，不希望美元出現波動。所以我認為這些在某種程度上是相互連結的。因此，這本身就會是增強銀行體系信心的因素之一。同時，隨著這些法律的通過，特別是財政改革以及各動態產業的發展，我認為就業市場將改善，最終也會有助於建立更多信心。但我理解你的問題，我是正面的，但我們需要等待。

The next question comes from Pedro Leduc with Itau.

下一個問題來自 Itaú 的 Pedro Leduc。

First, on your loan book growth outlook for the year. You also grew a lot loans in the fourth quarter. And I'm trying to reconcile it with the still staggering pace of NPLs that we are seeing. And you even mentioned in the guidance that it will tick up again in the first quarter. But fourth quarter, again, was the peak of provisions.

首先，關於你們今年的放款成長展望。你們在第四季放款也成長很多。我試著把這點與我們目前看到的不良貸款（NPL）仍以驚人的速度上升這件事對照起來。而且你們甚至在指引中提到第一季還會再上升。但第四季同時又是提存的高峰。

Just trying to reconcile everything that you're still seeing NPLs going up and you want to grow loan book at a pretty fast pace, but you feel like provisions are -- have peaked. I'm trying to put all of this together and maybe trying to really understand on the provision side, if it wasn't -- if it weren't more prudent for you to increase coverage along the year as you exactly want to keep growing on a fast pace.

我想把這些資訊串起來：你們仍看到 NPL 上升、又希望以相當快的速度擴張放款，但你們認為提存已經——已達高峰。我想把這些都整合起來，並更深入理解在提存方面：既然你們確實希望維持快速成長，是否更審慎的作法應該是在一年當中提高覆蓋率？

Mariano will complement, but what we have seen is a clear improvement in collection trends in December. This continued in January and this continued in February. So I think that there is a peak. But of course, the NPL ratio reflects prior period delinquencies and -- but collection, as I said, performance has improved. But most importantly, we see the early signs of cost of risk stabilization.

Mariano 會補充，但我們在 12 月看到催收趨勢明顯改善。這在 1 月持續、在 2 月也持續。所以我認為確實出現高峰。但當然，NPL 比率反映的是前期的逾期情況——而如我所說，催收表現已改善。但更重要的是，我們看到風險成本開始趨於穩定的早期跡象。

I don't know if you want to complement on that.

我不確定你是否想就此補充說明。

Yes. As Patricio explained, loan loss provisions, particularly for the retail segment they are charged in advance of NPLs because when we see delinquency in certain product, mainly in retail products. We make most of the charge before the credit gets to 90 days past due, which is the moment where we recognize it as a nonperforming loan. So in the fourth quarter, we saw a peak in loan loss provisions that most probably will translate into a peak of NPLs in the first quarter. But the actions that Fabricio explained that we were taking and we engaged also during December and January, the branch network in adding efforts, collection efforts to contain delinquency to resume payments in individuals and smaller SMEs that is translated into indicators of improvements that will most probably reduce charges in the first quarter of 2026 and have the NPLs of the first quarter as a big (inaudible) and reduce there.

是的。如 Patricio 所解釋，貸款損失準備，特別是零售業務部分，通常會在不良貸款（NPL）之前先行提列，因為當我們在某些產品（主要是零售產品）看到逾期時，我們會在該筆授信逾期達 90 天之前就提列大部分費用；而逾期 90 天是我們將其認列為不良貸款的時點。因此，在第四季我們看到貸款損失準備達到高峰，這很可能會在第一季反映為不良貸款的高峰。但 Fabricio 所說明我們正在採取的行動，以及我們在 12 月與 1 月也投入的措施，包括分行網路加大力道、催收與收款努力，以抑制逾期並促使個人與較小型中小企業恢復還款，這些已轉化為改善的指標，最可能在 2026 年第一季降低提列費用，並使第一季的不良貸款成為一個大的（聽不清）後在此下降。

That's a very clear position, Gustavo. And if I may, on a follow-up regarding your ROE guidance of 4% to 9%. And I really like the slide that you put there, the main assumptions behind it, it's very useful. And as the year starts, however, 1Q, do you think we'll already be in the positive territory for ROEs or not just yet?

這個立場非常清楚，Gustavo。如果可以的話，我想追問一下你們 4% 到 9% 的 ROE 指引。我很喜歡你們放的那張投影片，列出背後的主要假設，非常有用。不過隨著年度開始，在第一季，你認為我們的 ROE 會不會就已經轉為正值區間，還是還沒那麼快？

In terms of ROEs, we believe that we can expect sequential improvements throughout 2026. We saw -- as we mentioned just recently, just now in 4Q 2025, we saw recovery in NIM, then the cost of risk stabilization that we see (inaudible) in the collections, which makes us construct with a constructive view on the broader normalization of credit costs. Interest rate volatility that we have seen in the first 2 months of the year, they have decreased. So this is also -- this should help enhance margin and profitability. And also with -- so we expect our ROE basically to move into double digits by the end of 2026.

就 ROE 而言，我們認為 2026 年可以期待逐季改善。我們看到——如我們剛才提到的，在 2025 年第四季，我們看到淨利差（NIM）回升，接著是風險成本的穩定化，我們也在催收（聽不清）中看到這點，這讓我們對信用成本更廣泛的正常化抱持建設性的看法。我們在今年前兩個月看到的利率波動已經下降。因此這也——應有助於提升利差與獲利能力。另外——所以我們預期 ROE 基本上會在 2026 年底前回到雙位數。

And as we continue expanding the loan book we look forward to higher margin lending -- higher-margin retail lending. And with sustained cost discipline, we should see the path back to high teens ROEs by late 2027 and 2028.

而隨著我們持續擴張放款規模，我們期待更多高利差放款——更高利差的零售放款。再加上持續的成本紀律，我們應可在 2027 年底到 2028 年間回到十幾%的 ROE 水準。

The next questions come from Pedro Offenhenden with Latin Securities.

下一個問題來自 Latin Securities 的 Pedro Offenhenden。

I wanted to ask on the previous release, you highlighted a decision to deleverage the balance sheet during the quarter. Should we view this as a temporary adjustment to response to volatility? Or can we see it again moving forward?

我想問一下，在上一份發布中，你們強調了本季去槓桿、縮減資產負債表的決定。我們應該把這視為因應波動的暫時性調整嗎？還是未來也可能再次看到？

Yes. Thank you for your question. These are mainly tactical movements because the reduction in the balance sheet size is related to wholesale deposits where on the other hand, we have requirements and securities. So these are tactical movements. It's not that what we expect for the rest of the year.

是的。謝謝你的問題。這主要是戰術性的調整，因為資產負債表規模的縮減與批發存款有關；另一方面，我們也有準備金與證券的要求。所以這些是戰術性動作。這不是我們對今年其餘時間的預期。

So when we see opportunities, we can expand our balance sheet in order to profit.

因此當我們看到機會時，我們可以擴張資產負債表以獲利。

But let me -- I think there is a more structural trend behind what we mentioned, which is a tactical move. And that relates to the strong growth we see in remunerated payroll and SME accounts from clients who activated these accounts. This mostly consists of new balances and not just simply money that was there and not being remunerated. And the funds, they come from either from mutual funds or for individuals from digital wallets. So this is helping us to improve and increase a stable source of funding.

但讓我——我認為在我們所提到的戰術性動作背後，還有一個更結構性的趨勢。這與我們在計息薪資帳戶與中小企業帳戶上看到的強勁成長有關，這些成長來自客戶啟用這些帳戶。這主要是新增餘額，而不只是原本存在但未計息的資金。而這些資金來源要嘛來自共同基金，要嘛對個人而言來自數位錢包。因此這正幫助我們改善並增加穩定的資金來源。

And I want to stress this is very important for us acquiring principality with our clients.

我想強調，這對我們取得客戶的主要往來地位（principal relationship）非常重要。

The next question comes from -- I saw Carlos -- from Marcos (inaudible).

下一個問題來自——我看到 Carlos——來自 Marcos（聽不清）。

My question is if you expect to lower non-cost deposits to keep growing in the quarter?

我的問題是，你們是否預期低成本存款在本季仍會持續成長？

Can you repeat the question? I didn't understand.

你可以重複一下問題嗎？我沒有聽懂。

We saw that low-cost deposits had a growth towards the end of the quarter. We want to know if you expect that trend to continue in this first quarter (inaudible)?

我們看到低成本存款在季末有所成長。我們想知道你們是否預期這個趨勢會在第一季持續（聽不清）？

The focus is basically -- of course, there is a seasonality in the fourth quarter, but the focus is to have what we call the CASA deposits, which is current accounts and savings accounts to continue growing in 2026. We are -- we have a very strong focus on that. And this is going to help us improve our quality of funding.

重點基本上——當然，第四季有季節性因素，但重點是讓我們所稱的 CASA 存款，也就是活期存款與儲蓄存款，在 2026 年持續成長。我們——我們對此有非常強的聚焦。而這將幫助我們改善資金來源的品質。

Pedro, I see your hand. You have another question?

Pedro，我看到你舉手了。你還有另一個問題嗎？

I did. It was more related to InvertirOnline. Here, we had a very nice performance as I'm seeing it, especially on the bottom line, ARS 8.1 billion. This operationally, assets under management, active customers also trending very well. I see that you increased the headcount here.

有的。這個問題比較與 InvertirOnline 有關。就我所見，這裡表現非常好，尤其是淨利，達到 81 億阿根廷披索（ARS 8.1 billion）。在營運面，管理資產規模、活躍客戶數也都走勢很好。我看到你們也增加了人員編制。

Maybe just walk us over some of the initiatives that's undertaking there, what drove this quarter's profits upward and maybe a glimpse of what we should expect from EOL in 2026?

能否帶我們了解一下那邊正在推動的一些計畫、是什麼驅動本季獲利上升，以及對 2026 年 EOL 的展望可以給我們一些提示嗎？

I will defer this to Diego, only saying that this market is a nascent market. We've seen over the last few years, high inflation. But with declining inflation, then there will be more risk appetite for investors. But please.

我把這題交給 Diego 回答；我只先說，這個市場仍屬新興市場。過去幾年我們看到高通膨。但隨著通膨下降，投資人的風險偏好會提高。請。

Yes. Thank you, Pedro, for your question. So many things were in place in last quarter that are going on this year also. We started to focus more on affluent clients. We believe that with the normalization in Argentina, this will be the highest valuable customers we can develop.

是的。謝謝你，Pedro，提問。上一季有很多因素到位，而今年也仍在延續。我們開始更聚焦於高資產客戶（affluent clients）。我們相信，隨著阿根廷走向正常化，這將是我們能夠培育的最具價值客群。

So we are focusing our efforts in building not only products for them, but also advisers that can handle the growing number of customers we have in our wealth management business, also in SMEs and IFAs. So -- that was part of the switch you saw the trend you saw in the fourth quarter that it's going on this first quarter and will be the trend we are focusing on for 2026, 2027 and also 2028. We believe that the normalization in Argentina will open a lot of opportunities for us and for our business in -- regarding the high-value customers. Regarding the retail customers, of course, EOL is the leader in Argentina. We have 2,100,000 accounts.

因此我們把努力放在不僅為他們打造產品，也建立能夠因應我們財富管理業務中不斷增加客戶數的顧問團隊，同時也涵蓋中小企業與 IFA（獨立財務顧問）。所以——這也是你在第四季看到的轉變與趨勢的一部分，這個趨勢在第一季仍在延續，並將是我們在 2026、2027 以及 2028 年所聚焦的方向。我們相信阿根廷的正常化將為我們以及我們的業務帶來許多機會——特別是在高價值客戶方面。至於零售客戶，當然，EOL 是阿根廷的領導者。我們有 2,100,000 個帳戶。

So we have a great UX and we make the experience of operating our platform very straightforward for our customers. It's very easy for them to operate. And last year, there were some (inaudible) that arise and we were there for our customers to execute like some FX transactions in the market. Also (inaudible) was a product that was very high demand last year. So I believe our platform allowed retail customers to operate easy, and that's why they made us the leading broker in retail.

因此我們擁有很好的使用者體驗（UX），並讓客戶在我們平台上的操作體驗非常直觀。他們操作起來非常容易。而去年出現了一些（聽不清）情況，我們也在場協助客戶在市場上執行例如一些外匯（FX）交易。另外，（聽不清）也是去年需求非常高的產品。所以我相信，我們的平台讓零售客戶能夠輕鬆操作，這也是為什麼他們讓我們成為零售市場的領先券商。

Very good and much success there in 2026.

非常好，也祝你們在2026年取得更大成功。

Sorry, let me complement something else about EOL is that asset management is a business that is starting to appear important in InvertirOnline. It already represents 10% of the brokerage fee revenues. And they are -- they are launching -- they are already -- they have their proprietary funds. They just launched the third fund, very successful a few weeks ago, already almost $30 million in deposits is a peso fund. But also the first fund they launched, the dollar fund, is the third largest in the country, and this is quite amazing.

抱歉，我再補充一點關於EOL：資產管理正逐漸成為InvertirOnline中一項開始顯得重要的業務。它已經占經紀手續費收入的10%。而且他們——他們正在推出——他們已經——擁有自家（專有）的基金。他們幾週前剛推出第三檔基金，非常成功，存入資金已接近3,000萬美元，這是一檔比索基金。此外，他們推出的第一檔基金——美元基金——是全國第三大，這相當令人驚訝。

And so I believe that we have a very strong franchise.

因此我相信我們擁有非常強大的特許經營（franchise）。

We have a question from Carlos Gomez-Lopez with HSBC.

我們收到來自匯豐（HSBC）的Carlos Gomez-Lopez的提問。

I hope you can hear me?

希望你們聽得到我？

Yes, we can.

是的，我們聽得到。

So I wanted to ask, first, I remember around this time last year, we had high growth and you had a contraction of spreads. I would like to know how spreads, both for corporates and for individuals, are evolving right now in light of the NPLs that we have had? And second, we are already in March, the middle of March, how is deposit growth and loan growth going so far? Because if you look at the aggregate figures, there's barely any expansion, and it seems a bit challenging to get to the growth targets for both deposits and loans that you put in your guidance.

我想先問第一個問題：我記得大約去年這個時候，我們看到很高的成長，但你們的利差收窄。我想了解在目前我們看到的不良貸款（NPL）情況下，企業與個人端的利差目前是如何演變的？第二，我們已經到3月、3月中旬了，到目前為止存款成長與放款成長的情況如何？因為如果看整體數據，幾乎沒有擴張，似乎要達到你們在指引中提出的存款與放款成長目標有點具挑戰性。

Carlos, thank you for your question. Regarding spreads, we don't see contractions in spreads so far. We have the spreads both on corporate and retail only regarding NPLs is that we are growing more on the corporate side than on the retail side. So in fact, this gave us a composition of the loan portfolio with higher weight of corporate loans. But we are not reducing spreads.

Carlos，謝謝你的提問。關於利差，到目前為止我們沒有看到利差收窄。因此，這使得我們的放款組合中，企業放款的比重更高。但我們並沒有降低利差。

That's in pesos and in dollars we see that for longer-term loans, there are higher spreads, although this is still a small portion of the portfolio because most of the commercial portfolio is in pesos for working capital. But we are seeing some room to grow in longer term, which has higher spreads. And regarding the evolution of loans and deposits during the first quarter or the first month of the first quarter, we see a good evolution as Patricio explained before. Again, there is some seasonality in December, it increases not only loans but also savings accounts and current accounts. But aside of that, we continue with the trends we saw in the fourth quarter.

這在比索與美元端都是如此；我們看到在較長天期的貸款上，利差更高，儘管這仍只占投資組合的一小部分，因為大多數商業放款組合是以比索提供營運資金。但我們確實看到在較長天期方面仍有成長空間，而那部分的利差較高。至於第一季、或第一季第一個月的放款與存款走勢，如Patricio先前所說，我們看到良好的發展。再次強調，12月存在一些季節性，不僅放款增加，儲蓄帳戶與活期帳戶也會增加。但除此之外，我們仍延續第四季所看到的趨勢。

Still we are being very prudent on the retail portfolio side as before, we have wholesale deposits and 2024 (inaudible).

我們在零售放款組合方面仍如先前一樣非常審慎；我們有批發存款以及2024年（聽不清）。

If I can follow up on the spreads. I mean the reality is that the second half of the year has been challenging for the system as a whole and the system as a whole has barely been able to make money even in the fourth quarter, which makes you wonder, I mean, spreads are quite in Argentina given the level of NPLs and the level of provisions is the system profitable? Or do you need to see an adjustment? Because if we need to see more growth, I mean, that will be problematic. I mean that as things are today, the banks are not making money.

如果我可以就利差再追問一下。我的意思是，現實是下半年對整個系統都很具挑戰性，整個系統即使在第四季也幾乎賺不到錢，這讓人不禁想問：在阿根廷，考量不良貸款水準與提存水準，利差是否足以讓系統獲利？還是需要看到某種調整？因為如果我們需要看到更多成長，那就會很棘手。我的意思是，以今天的情況來看，銀行並沒有在賺錢。

Well, I mean this has to do, of course, with NIMs and NIMs, they depend on interest rate volatility, inflation. We just mentioned that the interest rate volatility, we started to see a decline that would be important to preserve good margins. But with inflation going down, government is very, very strong statement saying that inflation will go down by the second half of the year, then that will help decrease the interest rates, nominal interest rates. And then we could expect eventually a (inaudible) in terms of our reserve requirements. And if there is an increase as the government is looking for of peso demand that will fuel deposits and that will allow expanding the balance sheet and of course, so more leverage for the banking system, and this will be a positive effect for the return on equity.

嗯，我的意思是，這當然與淨利差（NIM）有關，而NIM取決於利率波動與通膨。我們剛提到利率波動，我們開始看到下降，這對維持良好利潤率很重要。但隨著通膨下行，政府非常、非常強烈地表態通膨將在下半年下降，這將有助於降低利率、名目利率。接著我們最終可能會在法定準備金要求方面看到（聽不清）。而如果如政府所希望的那樣，比索需求增加，將帶動存款，並使資產負債表得以擴張；當然，銀行體系的槓桿也會提高，這將對股東權益報酬率（ROE）產生正面影響。

That's the way forward. That's a positive way forward. And this is what we're looking for.

這就是前進的方向。這是一條正向的前進道路。這也是我們所期待的。

We have our next question comes from Kaio Prato with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀（UBS）的Kaio Prato。

I just have one follow-up here on my side, please, is on the retail credit portfolio. So we saw, as you mentioned, some contraction sequentially on the portfolio again. I think -- and in your slide, you mentioned about the retail segment resuming gradually as far as i'm understood. But just wondering if you can provide us a brief update about the retail segment at the system level as well. So how are you seeing, first, your credit models after this uptick on NPLs and the overall consumer demand and the overall banking appetite for this segment, not only from you but also from other banks and especially fintechs that might gain some traction at this current environment.

我這邊只有一個追問，關於零售信貸投資組合。如你們提到的，我們看到該組合再次出現環比收縮。我想——而且在你們的投影片中，你們提到零售端將逐步恢復，我的理解是如此。但我想請你們簡要更新一下系統層面的零售端情況。也就是說，在不良貸款上升之後，你們如何看待你們的信用模型、整體消費者需求，以及銀行對這一細分市場的整體意願，不僅是你們，還包括其他銀行，尤其是在目前環境下可能獲得更多動能的金融科技公司（fintech）。

So it would be good to have an overview on the segment. And when do you think it should start to recover at least on your side as well?

因此，如果能對這個細分市場做個概覽會很好。另外，你們認為至少就你們這邊而言，何時會開始復甦？

Yes. I think, as you said on the fourth quarter, contraction on the retail portfolio, and we aim to grow gradually into 2026 only when we see conditions -- improvement of conditions to grow in this segment. So far, as we said, we see better early indicators collections for the segments, what will be very important is the level of activity, the decrease in the volatility of interest rates that we saw between July and October and to some extent, continued January. So this is very important in order to resume activity across all the industries in Argentina because right now, it is very uneven between very dynamic industries that still have low levels of activity that will allow us to resume growth.

是的。我想，正如你所說，第四季零售投資組合出現收縮，而我們的目標是在2026年逐步成長，但僅會在我們看到條件——該細分市場的成長條件——有所改善時才會擴張。到目前為止，如我們所說，我們看到該細分市場在催收方面有較好的早期指標；非常重要的將是經濟活動水準，以及我們在7月至10月之間看到的利率波動下降，且在某種程度上延續到1月。因此，這對於恢復阿根廷各行各業的活動非常重要，因為目前各產業之間非常不均衡：有些產業非常活躍，但也仍有一些產業活動水準偏低；這些因素將決定我們何時能恢復成長。

One or two things. Obviously, our main focus is obviously lending money to our customer base. So we are maintaining -- we adjusted our credit models in order to do that. Basically, our focus is our primary customers. But also, as Mariano mentioned before, we have all the retail branches on the retail segment focused on the collections.

一兩點。顯然，我們的主要重點就是向我們的客戶群放款。因此我們一直在維持——並為了做到這點調整了我們的信用模型。基本上，我們的重點是我們的核心客戶。同時，如Mariano先前提到的，我們在零售分部的所有零售分行也都把重點放在催收上。

So we have an excellent results in order to do that. It's different things that as we do in the past. So we maintain our focus. We adjusted our models, and we want to keep in track our existing customers. Also, we are looking for new customers with new credit models in order to increase our credit and our retail credit book.

因此我們在這方面取得了非常好的成果。這與我們過去做的事情有所不同。所以我們維持我們的重點。我們調整了模型，並希望持續追蹤我們的既有客戶。此外，我們也透過新的信用模型尋找新客戶，以提升我們的授信與零售放款組合。

So basically, we are changing some different -- some things in order to be more effective, obviously, get more profitability for that product.

所以基本上，我們正在改變一些不同——一些事情，以便更有效率，顯然也讓該產品帶來更高的獲利能力。

In terms of looking forward for 2026, retail acceleration will depend on continued disinflation, reduction in nominal rates, improved consumer confidence, particularly on the job market and disposable income and eventually lower liquidity requirements. Fintechs are -- yes, they are on the screen. We are conscious and they will start loaning to certain segments. So we understand that and it's good competition.

就展望2026年而言，零售加速將取決於通膨持續下降、名目利率下調、消費者信心改善，特別是在就業市場與可支配所得方面，以及最終流動性要求降低。金融科技公司——是的，它們在我們的視野之內。我們有所警覺，它們將開始對某些客群放款。所以我們理解這點，這是良性的競爭。

We have a couple of questions in the Q&A box. One is from (inaudible). He says if the government allows banks to lend in US dollars to borrowers without dollar-linked income, how would Supervielle position itself competitively? Would dollar lending improve spreads and return on equity structurally?

我們在問答框裡有幾個問題。其中一個來自(聽不清)。他問，如果政府允許銀行以美元向沒有美元掛鉤收入的借款人放款，Supervielle將如何在競爭上定位自己？美元放款是否會在結構上改善利差與股東權益報酬率？

Or would it mainly shift balance sheet composition?

還是主要只是改變資產負債表的組成？

I think that this is an ongoing discussion in the financial system because there is a lot of liquidity in dollars that are not being used by banks. But we believe that we have a cautious approach. Currency mismatch continues to be a risk. We need a fiscal anchor for quite a time and eventually also Central Bank independence, state agenda for the entire political spectrum. But we're not there yet.

我認為這在金融體系中是一個持續進行的討論，因為有大量未被銀行運用的美元流動性。但我們相信我們會採取審慎的做法。幣別錯配仍然是一項風險。我們需要相當長一段時間的財政錨定，最終也需要央行獨立，以及涵蓋整個政治光譜的國家議程。但我們目前還沒到那一步。

But still, we have a selective approach, and we will be open to basically lend top-tier companies that have good protections and so on. So we are looking for and if the regulations change, we will go for selective opportunities.

不過，我們仍會採取選擇性的做法，基本上會願意對具備良好保障等條件的頂級企業放款。因此我們會尋找機會；若法規改變，我們將把握選擇性的機會。

But the current regulations (inaudible) lend dollars because you have the deposits base in order to -- you can lend dollars to the exports chain. And also if you have bonds or loans from external financing, you can lend. So today, you can lend dollars to the companies.

但現行法規(聽不清)允許以美元放款，因為你有存款基礎——你可以對出口產業鏈以美元放款。另外，如果你有外部融資的債券或貸款，你也可以放款。所以今天你是可以對企業以美元放款的。

Not with deposits, but yes, with (inaudible).

不是用存款，但可以用(聽不清)。

(inaudible) customer deposits.

(聽不清)客戶存款。

Exactly. So we will be -- we have a selective approach on that.

沒錯。所以我們在這方面會——採取選擇性的做法。

We have a couple of questions coming from Ernesto Gabilondo with BofA. Let me read some of them. We have a couple of minutes, maybe first on that I think we have not answered yet. The deposit requirement is expected to decline from 50% to 45% by the end of March. Is there any further time line to continue reducing this requirement to improve peso liquidity?

我們有幾個問題來自美銀（BofA）的Ernesto Gabilondo。我來讀其中一些。我們只剩幾分鐘，先從我想我們還沒回答的這個開始。存款準備金要求預計在3月底從50%降至45%。是否還有進一步的時間表，繼續降低此要求以改善披索流動性？

Or does management believe the Milei administration will maintain a restrictive monetary policy to preserve fiscal surplus and manage FX stability ahead of the 2027 presidential election?

或者管理層是否認為，Milei政府將維持緊縮的貨幣政策，以維持財政盈餘並在2027年總統大選前管理外匯穩定？

We don't have any news about it.

我們沒有任何相關消息。

Only until the end of March. That's the only thing we have. No, it's because it's the regulation is maturing the reduction which was offset with securities. That's the only thing.

只有到3月底為止。這是我們目前唯一知道的。不，因為這項規定是到期生效的降幅，而先前是用證券來抵銷。就只有這些。

Continue with the same.

維持不變。

We believe that it will be -- in fact, in the state of the union address, he mentioned that they will continue to maintain a restrictive monetary policy. But -- so this is dynamic. They need to see if it's too much a hindrance for economic activity, and if they are more at ease with the building of foreign reserves, which currently they are doing a very good job, then maybe they will be less restrictive. But I think the bias will be restrictive.

我們認為確實會——事實上，在國情咨文中，他提到他們將繼續維持緊縮的貨幣政策。但是——這是動態的。他們需要觀察這是否對經濟活動造成過大的阻礙；如果他們對外匯存底的累積更有把握——目前他們做得非常好——那麼也許會沒那麼緊縮。但我認為政策偏向仍會是緊縮。

Yes. Our best case scenario for the guidance or embedded in the guidance is without any assumption of further reducing (inaudible).

是的。我們在指引中的最佳情境，或指引所隱含的情境，是不假設進一步降低(聽不清)。

(inaudible).

(聽不清)。

I think the first one was already in terms of asset quality, NPLs, cost of risk. I think Mariano walked through that. The assumption behind thew guidance. I think it's in the presentation, but I don't know, Mariano, if you want to go quickly and this is the last question we look at.

我想第一個問題已經是關於資產品質、不良貸款（NPL）、風險成本。我想Mariano已經說明過了。指引背後的假設。我想簡報裡有，但我不知道，Mariano，你是否想快速補充一下——這是我們要看的最後一個問題。

Yes, the assumptions, the macroeconomic assumptions we have in our guidance is inflation of 22.4%, GDP growth of 3.7%, (inaudible) 1,750 by the end of 2026.

是的，我們指引中的假設、宏觀經濟假設為：通膨22.4%、GDP成長3.7%、(聽不清)到2026年底為1,750。

So thank you all of you for participating. I think this is the last question. So the earnings call today comes to an end. We appreciate your interest in our company, and we look forward to meeting more of you over the coming months and providing financial and business updates next quarter. In the interim, we remain available to answer any questions I'm sorry, that you may have.

非常感謝各位的參與。我想這是最後一個問題。因此今天的法說會到此結束。感謝各位對本公司的關注，我們期待在未來幾個月與更多各位見面，並在下個季度提供財務與業務更新。在此期間，如各位有任何問題——抱歉——我們仍然可以回答。

So have a nice day.

祝各位有美好的一天。