Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc (SUPN) 2013 Q4 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

  • Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Supernus Pharmaceuticals' fourth-quarter 2013 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions). As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Rich Cockrell. Sir, you may begin.

  • Rich Cockrell - IR

  • Good morning, and thank you for joining us today for Supernus's fourth-quarter and full-year 2013 financial results call. Results discussed today are for the period ending December 31, 2013. Yesterday, the Company issued a press release announcing fourth-quarter and full-year 2013 financial results.

  • On the call today are Supernus's Chief Executive Officer, Jack Khattar; and Chief Financial Officer, Greg Patrick. Today's call is being made available to a wider audience via the Company's Investor Relations section of the Company's website at www.ir.supernus.com. Following remarks by management, we will open your call to questions. We expect the duration of the call to be approximately one hour.

  • During the course of this call, management may make certain forward-looking statements regarding future events and the Company's future performance. These forward-looking statements reflects Supernus's current perspective on existing trends and information, and can be identified by such words as expect, plan, will, may, anticipate, believe, should, intend, and words of other, similar meaning.

  • Any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties, including those noted in the Risk Factors section of our Annual Report on Form 10-K to be filed later this month. Actual results may differ materially from those projected in these forward-looking statements.

  • For the benefit of those of you who may be listening to the replay, this call is being held and recorded on March 13, 2014, at approximately 9 AM Eastern time. Since then, the Company may have made additional announcements related to the topics discussed. Please reference the Company's most recent press releases and current filings with the SEC. Supernus declines any obligation to update these forward-looking statements, except as may be required by applicable securities laws.

  • With that, I would like to turn the call over to Jack. Go ahead, Jack.

  • Jack Khattar - President and CEO

  • Thank you, Rich, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we discuss our fourth-quarter and full-year results. 2013 was a momentous year, filled with milestones that have begun to define Supernus as a leading CNS company. We began the year with the launch of our first extended release epilepsy product, Oxtellar XR; and, in the third quarter, launched our second epilepsy product, Trokendi XR. We are very proud of such remarkable achievement of launching two products in one year.

  • Oxtellar XR has been growing steadily since its commercial launch in February, to reach over 9800 IMS prescriptions in the fourth quarter. And this represents 37% growth over the third-quarter prescriptions of 7200. The Company was able to achieve such growth despite simultaneously launching Trokendi XR during that period. And, to date, we continue to receive positive feedback from patients and the physician community about their experience with the use of the product.

  • Over 2200 physicians have prescribed Oxtellar XR, which is considerably higher than the 1600 physicians that we reported during the third quarter. Also, Oxtellar XR continues to have good managed care coverage, with over 146 million lives covered.

  • Trokendi XR is off to a strong start, surpassing 11,000 prescriptions filled, only in one quarter after its launch. After a few months on the market, over 2200 physicians have prescribed Trokendi XR; and similar to Oxtellar XR, patient and physician feedback has been positive on the product. Furthermore, managed care coverage for Trokendi XR continues to grow, with over 129 million lives that are now covered.

  • Combined, Oxtellar XR and Trokendi XR reached 9000 prescriptions in January 2014. Since the launch of both products, prescriptions have grown at an average of 1300 prescriptions per month. This is a solid start for us, and a sure step in achieving our goal of approximately 30,000 prescriptions per month by year-end.

  • We continue to see that our products are very promotion-sensitive, with increasing share strongly correlated with call frequency. As a result, we are expanding our salesforce from 110 representatives at year-end 2013 to more than 150 representatives by mid-2014. Our salesforce continues to be successful in increasing the number of calls on target physicians, delivering over 10,000 calls in January 2014, a record number for the Company.

  • We also continue to place great importance on protecting our intellectual property, to ensure the sustainability of longevity of our products. The recent issuance of two new patents, one on Trokendi XR and another on Oxtellar XR, provides us with a broad and proprietary position with respect to both products. We currently have patent protection on Oxtellar XR and Trokendi XR through three issued US patents each, and are focused on further expanding such protection.

  • Core product candidates currently in development -- SPN-810 for impulsive aggression in patients with ADHD; and SPN-812, for the treatment of ADHD -- are progressing on schedule. SPN-810 is being developed in close cooperation with the FDA, and it would be a first-in-class product for an indication with a significant unmet clinical need. We have initiated formulation scale-up and technology transfer to a commercial manufacturing facility. SPN-810 is scheduled to enter Phase III development in 2014, with patient dosing starting in 2015. SPN-812 formulation development is also progressing, with an extended release formulation to be selected during this year.

  • Finally, we are very excited about the potential US launch of Orenitram in 2014 as a novel, oral treatment for pulmonary arterial hypertension by our partner, United Therapeutics. This, in combination with Oxtellar XR and Trokendi XR, represents yet another validation of our expertise and proven track record of developing novel products.

  • I will now turn the call over to Greg Patrick, our CFO, to discuss our year-end financial results.

  • Greg Patrick - CFO

  • Thanks, Jack. As I review our financial results, I'd like to remind our listeners to refer to the fourth-quarter earnings press release issued yesterday. Total revenues for the fourth-quarter 2013 increased to approximately $10.3 million, and approximately $12 million for the full year. Revenues from Oxtellar XR totaled $11 million for the year, surpassing our guidance of $8.5 million by 29%.

  • As of the fourth quarter of 2013, Oxtellar XR revenue is reported based on shipments to wholesalers, rather than on prescriptions filled at the pharmacy level on a quarter lag basis. Consequently, reported revenue for Oxtellar XR for the fourth quarter includes prescriptions filled at the pharmacy level during the third and fourth quarters, as well as product held in the wholesaler pipeline as of December 31, 2013. As a result of this change, the deferred revenue balance for Oxtellar XR has been expunged as of year-end.

  • Trokendi XR revenues continue to be reported on a quarter lag basis. Therefore, revenue from the more than 11,000 prescriptions filled in the fourth quarter will be reported in the first-quarter 2014 financial results.

  • You may have noticed that the Company has recorded net deferred product revenue on its balance sheet as of December 31, in the amount of $7.9 million. This represents Trokendi XR, which has been sold to wholesalers, but not filled as prescriptions as of September 30, 2013. The total, representing approximately 20,000 prescriptions, can be separated into two constituent parts. First, approximately 55%, or 11,000 prescriptions, represents scripts filled at the pharmacy level in the fourth quarter. As I mentioned just a moment ago, we expect this amount to be recorded as product revenue in the first quarter.

  • The second component, approximately 45%, or 9000 prescriptions, represents product sold to wholesalers and which was in their distribution channel as of December 31, 2013. The two pieces, comprising $7.9 million in total, are recorded on the balance sheet as of December 31 as net deferred product revenue.

  • Gross profit for the quarter was $9.2 million, and $10.5 million for the year. Gross margin for the quarter and the year was 89.6% and 90.4%, respectively. Product loss was affected by one-time, non-repeating expenditures in the fourth quarter. Going forward, we continue to expect product gross margins to exceed 90%.

  • Selling, general, and administrative expenses for the fourth-quarter and full-year 2013 were $15.2 million and $55.6 million, respectively, as compared to $8.7 million and $20.1 million in 2012. Year-over-year growth in cost is primarily attributable to launch and commercialization activities for Trokendi XR and Oxtellar XR.

  • Research and development expenses during the fourth-quarter and full-year 2013 were $5.4 million and $17.2 million, respectively, as compared to $5.2 million and $23.5 million in 2012. The year-over-year decrease was due in large part to the completion of the Company's Phase IIb study for SPN-810 in 2012.

  • Reported net loss for the fourth-quarter and full-year 2013 were $22.4 million and $92.3 million, respectively, as compared to $13.5 million and $46.3 million in 2012. The higher loss in 2013 reflects increased expenses associated with the launch and commercialization activities of Oxtellar XR and Trokendi XR.

  • The net loss for the fourth-quarter and full-year 2013 was $0.65 and $2.90 per share, respectively, as compared to $0.51 and $2.72 per share in 2012. The weighted average common shares outstanding in the fourth-quarter and year-end 2013 were approximately 34.6 million and 31.8 million, respectively, as compared to 26.6 million and 17.4 million in 2012.

  • As of December 31, 2013, 40.5 million of the Company six-year notes, bearing interest at 7.5% per annum, had been converted to common stock. Excluding non-cash charges for changes in fair value of derivative liabilities -- $13.4 million -- and loss on extinguishment of debt, consequent to conversion of the Company's notes -- $9.6 million -- non-GAAP net loss for full-year 2013 was $69.4 million. Through March 12, 2014, an additional $9.5 million of the Company's notes were converted into shares of common stock, for a total of $50 million of the Company's notes converted to common stock to date.

  • As of December 31, 2013, the Company at $90.9 million in cash, cash equivalents, marketable securities, and long-term investments, compared to $88.5 million as of December 31, 2012. We believe these funds are sufficient to finance the Company through the end of 2014, by which time the Company projects to be cash flow breakeven. We project that this will occur at a prescription run rate of approximately 30,000 prescriptions per month. Cash burn for full-year 2014 is forecast to range from $35 million to $45 million, with year-end cash balance projected to range from $35 million to $45 million.

  • Finally, during 2014, we project that revenue reported for Trokendi XR will transition from prescriptions filled at the pharmacy level on a quarter lag basis, to contemporaneous revenue recognition based on shipments to wholesalers. Assuming this occurs, our reported total revenue for calendar year 2014 is expected to range from $75 million to $85 million.

  • I'd now like to open the call to questions.

  • Operator

  • (Operator Instructions). Ken Cacciatore, Cowen.

  • Ken Cacciatore - Analyst

  • Congratulations to date on all the progress. Just wanted to better understand, when we expand the sales reps, where do we take that clinician prescribing base to? How many more are we broadening out? And if you can give us a little bit of better understanding about the prescriber base in terms of decile that we'll be reaching, what we're reaching now, and what we'll be going down to, in terms of prescribing habits of those additional clinicians.

  • And then also can you just talk about how we're going to position the product Trokendi versus the Upsher product, and maybe how that may have some implications in the market? Thank you.

  • Jack Khattar - President and CEO

  • Yes, sure, Ken. This is Jack. Regarding the expansion of the salesforce, we have been focusing, as we've said, in the past 12 months or so -- actually, 15 months or so -- on both products, on the decile 10, 9, and 8. So the expansion of the salesforce will get us more reach obviously within these deciles, as well as will get us into the decile 7. So that's really what we're targeting to get with these 150 reps, or slightly more than 150 reps, on both products combined.

  • As far as the Upsher-Smith product, if you don't mind -- I'm sure you will appreciate -- I will refrain from making any specific comments as to how we position our product versus theirs, and so forth, for competitive reasons. The comment I would make regarding that specific topic is the fact that topiramate market in 2013 grew by 10%, which was really a remarkable growth in prescriptions, now amounting to about 12 million prescriptions a year.

  • So we maintain, and we continue to say that we believe this market is fairly big enough for two players in the marketplace. Again, there has been an example, historically, where two products, fairly similar -- extended release carbamazepine, for example -- Carbatrol and Tegretol XR -- were both in the market together, in the generic market. And both, by year five, for example, achieved a penetration of about 33%, 35% of that market being converted to extended release.

  • So we clearly see a huge opportunity here for us, even with another competitor in the marketplace; perhaps even a faster conversion of immediate release products into extended release products. When you have two companies promoting the benefits of extended release in this market, we believe there is even an advantage to that as well.

  • Ken Cacciatore - Analyst

  • Thank you.

  • Operator

  • Annabel Samimy, Stifel.

  • Annabel Samimy - Analyst

  • I wanted to just get some more color around the reimbursement coverage. You guys have done a great job on the commercial side. Is the Medicare side still lacking? And is it creating any kind of hindrance to any further adoption? That's my first question.

  • Jack Khattar - President and CEO

  • Yes, on the Medicare side -- basically, first of all, the Medicare side is about 10% of the prescriptions of oxcarbazepine. And I believe it's around the same number, slightly difference, with topiramate. So certainly it is a portion of the business, but it's not the bulk of the business. So from a priority point of view, we are focused and really prioritizing our efforts into the Medicaid side.

  • If you remember, we mentioned, on oxcarbazepine, about 25% to 26% of the prescriptions on oxcarbazepine are actually Medicaid. So we've been really putting a lot of effort in that area. And that's why you'll notice, as we said in our press release, we really made a lot of inroads in that space on Oxtellar XR, as well as Trokendi XR.

  • Now, that doesn't mean we are not pursuing the Medicare portion. We are pursuing that in parallel. But from a priority point of view, we push a little bit more, and put more emphasis on Medicaid, initially. But the other piece will come in later.

  • Annabel Samimy - Analyst

  • Okay, I apologize. I actually did mean Medicaid. So, in terms of the inroads, do you feel that with the current coverage on the commercial side, and doctors starting to prescribe, is Medicaid not being covered still a hindrance to some physicians, I guess is what I'm saying.

  • Jack Khattar - President and CEO

  • Yes, on Medicaid, we still have a lot of room to add, certainly. For example, on Oxtellar XR, we have about 20 million lives on Medicaid; and Trokendi XR, after only a few months, 15 million. So, on Medicaid, we still have a lot of room to run on both products, and that's the continued effort is on that, on a state-by-state basis.

  • Annabel Samimy - Analyst

  • Okay, great. And on the accounting, if you could possibly help us out. Can you just quantify the extent to which it was a -- Oxtellar sales were from the actual shipments to wholesalers, versus the roll forward of the third and fourth quarter? Just to sort of get a sense of which part is actual sales to wholesalers, versus the accounting.

  • Greg Patrick - CFO

  • Yes. Annabel, I'd be glad to work through the precise math with you off-line. But if you take the scripts in the third quarter and the fourth quarter, and you attribute a WAC price somewhere in the range of $400 to $450; and gross to net, as we've been saying, around a 25% reduction. That will let you dollarize those third and fourth quarter scripts pretty reliably. And the residual, then, is what sits at the wholesaler level.

  • In terms of the precise number, I don't have that in front of me right now. I can work through that with you off-line. It's in the range of -- I think somewhere in the range of around $1.5 million; $1.5 million to $2 million, something like that.

  • Annabel Samimy - Analyst

  • Okay. And what's the deciding factor to move Trokendi over to the similar type of accounting, given that the prescription -- is it based on prescriptions? Because the prescription is much -- growth is much faster than Oxtellar -- or size?

  • Greg Patrick - CFO

  • No, it's not. This is a question I love to answer. It is based on our seeing a repeatable pattern in all the gross to net rebates, allowances, and deductions. And what this essentially requires is for us to line up at least two quarters where we're looking at the percentage of prescriptions which are subject to co-pay, to Medicare, to Medicaid, to commercial rebates and allowances, prompt pay discounts -- in all of that, there's quite a panoply of those rebates, and allowances, and discounts -- and see a repeatable pattern quarter to quarter.

  • The key word is repeatable. Because what we then will do on a go-forward basis, as we're doing with Oxtellar right now, is using that history to estimate what those rebates and allowances will be on a go-forward basis. The reason it's two quarters is you need at least two quarters to be able to compare two data points for each of those individual elements to say, yes, we have a consistency with respect to how many -- what percentage of prescriptions are associated with co-pay. We have a consistent pattern with respect to what percentage is subject to Medicaid. We have a consistent pattern with respect to prompt pay discounts and wholesale allowances, and the like. So, we need at least two data points. It would be very difficult to do this without two.

  • There are some similarities between Oxtellar XR and Trokendi XR, which may allow us to use one data set to support the other. But, really, Trokendi XR has to stand on its own, and it's really got to be two full quarters. So that really means the fourth quarter of 2013 and the first quarter of 2014. I have to see what all those rebates, allowances, et cetera are. We have to see if they're consistent. And at that point in time, we'll be able to make a judgment as to whether we can then slip over to contemporaneous revenue recognition.

  • Annabel Samimy - Analyst

  • Okay, great. And one last question on --

  • Greg Patrick - CFO

  • (multiple speakers) But that's the extent of it.

  • Annabel Samimy - Analyst

  • Okay, great. Just one last question on the pipeline. I guess you've got some good traction with your currently marketed products. First of all, are you going to focus a little bit more on the pipeline? And with 810, you mentioned that you would start dosing patients in the beginning of 2015. What's the delay between -- over the course of this year, have you had your meeting with FDA to discuss whether you can go straight into Phase III? Or is there any other additional work that you have to do before you can move into Phase III?

  • Jack Khattar - President and CEO

  • Yes. Basically what we said on the technology transfer and scale-up, that is activities that will take several months where we have to do demonstration batches, trials, and experiments on that commercial scale. And then once we are comfortable with the transfer of the technology from our labs to the commercial manufacturing facility, then we can produce actual product for the pivotal trial. So that's one thing, which is a time element, that we have to go through on the critical path to getting to the Phase III.

  • The second piece of it is we are going through the Special Protocol Assessment process with the FDA. So we need the time to finalize the protocol, the design of the study, and so forth. So, that will take time. And after that is decided, we will need to start actually lining up the study itself, meaning signing up the sites and the clinical sites and so forth, and setting up the study. So, all that is the time that we will need to do in 2014, until we start dosing the first patient in 2015.

  • We are hoping to get a little bit more clarity as to when in 2015, and we will try to be as specific as possible. But all these activities have to occur. The same thing on the API; we are scaling up the API and validating the API, also. So all these activities are going in parallel.

  • Annabel Samimy - Analyst

  • Okay. But can you at least confirm that FDA is philosophically on the same page, in terms of being able to move into Phase III, based on the Phase II data?

  • Jack Khattar - President and CEO

  • Yes. And we will be doing an end-of-Phase-II meeting sometime of this year with that SPA process.

  • Annabel Samimy - Analyst

  • Okay, great. Thank you.

  • Operator

  • David Amsellem, Piper Jaffray.

  • David Amsellem - Analyst

  • So, just on Trokendi, can you give us a sense of the extent to which you're seeing off-label usage, in migraine or bipolar, or other conditions? I know it may be difficult to have that data, but if you can try to give us a sense of how that's shaking out.

  • Then the second question is on the salesforce, the expanded sales organization. I realize that you're burning through most of your cash this year. But that being said, what is the extent to which you are opportunistically looking at other assets, commercial [stadia] assets where you can leverage the sales organization? And how much is that a priority for you?

  • And then a longer-term question on the ADHD pipeline. Let's assume that 810 bears fruit and reaches market. What is the extent to which you're going to need to further expand the sales organization to support that, once you do reach the market with the product? Thanks.

  • Jack Khattar - President and CEO

  • Okay. Regarding Trokendi XR, David, obviously our focus has been in neurology on epilepsy, and that's how we're promoting the product. We think that the product is probably mimicking what the marketplace has (technical difficulty) usage, across board, all uses and so forth; so, depending on how physicians are using it. But basically we are pushing it for epilepsy, and for the benefits of once-a-day and compliance in epilepsy.

  • As far as the salesforce, and the utility of the salesforce, and taking advantage of the fact that we have built a fairly strong commercial infrastructure in neurology -- from a strategic point of view, absolutely, we are always open, and keep our eyes open on opportunities that could come up from a corporate development point of view. We have looked at assets in the past. And we continue to look at assets that can be very incremental in improving our business and moving up Supernus up to the next level. So that's always an ongoing process, but we have to be selective in what we bring into the mix here.

  • Also, we've got to be mindful of the fact that we just launched these two products. So we also don't want to do it too quick, too early; distracting from the actual the launch of Trokendi XR. The product hasn't been even on the market for a full year, so we got to be careful how we bring in a third product. If we do, we don't want to bring it too prematurely, and distract from really establishing Trokendi XR and Oxtellar XR, given that they are still very, very early in their growth phase.

  • And then, finally, I believe your last question regarding 810 -- as that product approaches approval or launch, and so forth, as we get closer to that timeframe -- from a physician audience point of view, it will be a very different physician audience than neurology. Clearly, it's more psychiatry-based; specifically, if we end up expanding also the indication later on, for impulsive aggression in schizophrenia, or impulsive aggression in bipolar, and even with ADHD. So, clearly, we would be looking at expanding our salesforce at that time, or setting up a separate salesforce, depending on where we are in the neurology portfolio at that point.

  • But that would be our vision at this point, is to set up a salesforce separately for 810 and 812, and that's really the beauty of having two products in the psychiatry space. It allows us to do the same thing as we did with Trokendi XR and Oxtellar XR.

  • David Amsellem - Analyst

  • I just want to follow up on that, if I may. So how many reps would you need to build a psychiatry sales organization? And then, back on the off-label use on Trokendi, just remind us what portion of the prescriptions for the underlying topiramate market are for migraine and for bipolar. Thanks.

  • Jack Khattar - President and CEO

  • Yes, for migraine, we're seeing numbers on topiramate market somewhere in the 50% to 60% of the market. It depends on which snapshot of the market you take; at what point in time, as IMS reports it. As far as the salesforce for psychiatry, from our experience in ADHD or from our trial days, we know you can actually market the product fairly well with somewhere in the 200 to 250 sales reps. You could start with that kind of a salesforce, initially, to promote these products.

  • David Amsellem - Analyst

  • Okay. Thanks, Jack.

  • Operator

  • Bill Tanner, FBR Capital Markets.

  • Bill Tanner - Analyst

  • (technical difficulty) a question, Jack. Just first on the sales expansion. You said, I think, in your prepared remarks, at least 150; so, wondering if you were contemplating expanding it. But also maybe just touch a little bit on how the new salesforce has been trained, if you have been pulling some guys out of the field. Certainly, the prescription trends look like there really hasn't been any impact. And then when you think the newly trained folks -- and I'm assuming they're probably all on board and trained by now, if you could confirm that -- when you think they'll really begin to make a contribution. And then I have a pipeline question. Thanks.

  • Jack Khattar - President and CEO

  • Well, in overall, regarding the salesforce -- let me back up a little bit. Certainly, the reason we have decided to be aggressive, and we are very excited about the expansion of the salesforce, although we have been saying that -- you guys may remember, we've said in the last 12, 18 months, that ultimately we see salesforce around 140 reps promoting both products. So we're going a little bit north of that because we have seen a very strong correlation between the effort of our salesforce, the call frequency per rep, and the market share that we are able to achieve in these doctors' offices when we get to certain frequency levels. So, because of that -- and the data is very strong in support of expanding the reps. And really these reps will pay, basically, for the investment that we will be putting behind the expansion.

  • As far as the exact timing of when these reps will be on board and so forth, we're trying to bring -- the only thing I would say is bring them on board as early as we can during the year. Obviously we want to get the full benefits of the expansion for 2014 as early as possible, and for the largest amount of time during the year. So, clearly, the effort is to bring them on board as early and as soon as possible.

  • So, we will probably start seeing the big impact of that expansion, I would say, somewhere mid- this year, as far as real big impact of the expansion.

  • Bill Tanner - Analyst

  • Okay. And then as it relates to 810, in the initial development -- or how do you think about this being used ultimately, if you develop it for impulse aggression in ADHD, do you think about opportunities in impulse aggression in other conditions? What's the thought on how you actually do the initial clinical testing -- what the label looks at, and then potential label expansion -- what you'd need to do there?

  • Jack Khattar - President and CEO

  • Yes, sure. The Phase IIb study, if you remember, we basically were looking at positioning this product as an add-on therapy. So, as an ADHD patient, or if you're a schizophrenic patient, or whichever patient population we end up getting in the end -- basically you are being treated for your current condition, whether it's schizophrenia or bipolar or ADHD or autism. And then we will add SPN-810 to that therapy to treat the impulsive aggressive behavior -- component of your behavior that is still not treated.

  • Again, because a lot of these ADHD patients, although they are treated for ADHD, they still have that aggressive behavior for which there is nothing today approved to treat that component of that behavior; and, similarly, autistic kids and bipolar patients and so forth. So this will be an add-on therapy to their existing stimulant or non-stimulant medication, whatever they're using for their ADHD treatment. And that's how we are really trying to position.

  • And back to Annabel's previous question, some of the things we are trying to iron with the FDA is, if we want to get a broad label, or as broad as possible, and we're trying to define what really the strategy is -- we have the best strategy for the product to get it to the market as soon as we can -- do we need to do two Phase III studies in ADHD? And then we'll do a third Phase III in schizophrenia, and then we get a broad indication across all therapeutic areas. Or do we do three Phase III studies, one in each area?

  • So these are some of the things we are discussing, and we will be discussing with the FDA, to really fine-tune the Phase III program. But, overall, it will be an add-on therapy, regardless which area it will be used in.

  • Bill Tanner - Analyst

  • Okay, thanks.

  • Operator

  • (Operator Instructions). Jonathan Eckard, Citi.

  • Jonathan Eckard - Analyst

  • I just wanted to -- and maybe I missed it. The 30,000 -- I think you said 30,000 scripts per month would equate to a breakeven point. And that's -- can we use the assumption of the same 25% gross to net, and greater than 90% gross margins for that?

  • And I'm also assuming that, near year-end, that's with the full -- about 150 sales reps on board, if we were looking from the expense side of it, on a breakeven point.

  • Are all those assumptions correct? Or, if not, do you mind just pointing us the right direction on how to look at what that breakeven point is, and I -- both on the expense side as well as the revenue side?

  • Greg Patrick - CFO

  • Jonathan, I think that those assumptions are certainly right down the middle of the fairway -- 30,000 prescriptions. You didn't talk about WAC pricing, but I mentioned that earlier in the context of a response to Annabel's question. So, a WAC price, both products together, somewhere around 425, maybe a little bit north than that. Gross to net, 25% is good; could do a little bit better than that. And product gross margin is north of 90%. I think we'll get you to a product gross margin contribution.

  • Then expenses have to be subsumed underneath that. And a bit of an allowance for some working capital, because we have been talking in terms of cash flow breakeven, which means not only a bit of positive on the bottom line, but also a positive from a -- or neutral, at least, from the standpoint of absorbing working capital impacts.

  • And, yes, that does include a salesforce somewhere in that 150, or a little bit more, in terms of the size of the salesforce.

  • Jonathan Eckard - Analyst

  • Okay, great. Thank you very much.

  • Operator

  • Thank you. I'm showing no further questions at this time. I'd like to hand the conference back over for any closing remarks.

  • Jack Khattar - President and CEO

  • Great. We would like to thank everyone for joining us on the call this morning. We are very excited about the ongoing commercial success of Oxtellar XR and Trokendi XR, as well as the continued development of our pipeline products. 2014 will be an exciting year for us, and we're looking forward to speaking with you all again in a few months, when we update everyone on the results of the first quarter of 2014. Thank you.

  • Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This concludes our program. You may all disconnect, and have a wonderful day.