Superior Industries International Inc (SUP) 2021 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Superior Industries' First Quarter 2021 Earnings Teleconference. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Clemens Denks. Sir, Please go ahead.

Thank you. Good morning, everyone and welcome to our first quarter 2021 earnings call. During our discussion today, we will be referring to our earnings presentation, which along with the earnings release, is available on the Investor Relations' section of Superior's website. I'm joined on the call by Majdi Abulaban, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Tim Trenary, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

Before I turn the call over to Majdi, I would like to remind everyone that any forward-looking statements contained in this presentation or commented on today, are subject to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Please refer to Slide 2 of this presentation for the full safe harbor statement and to the Company's SEC filings, including the company's current annual report on Form 10-K, for more complete discussion of forward-looking statements and risk factors.

We will also be discussing various non-GAAP measures today. These non-GAAP measures exclude the impact of certain items and therefore are not calculated in accordance with U.S. GAAP. Reconciliation of these measures to the most directly comparable U.S. GAAP measure can be found in the appendix of this presentation. With that, I'll turn the call over to Majdi, to provide the portfolio and business update.

Thanks, Clemens, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining our call, and thank you for your long-standing partnership and support of Superior. Before I start today, a few words with perspective from my side. We are very pleased with the results we will share with you today. As I stated in the last earnings call, we are very excited to have a business built for profitable growth and then the recovers. Our first quarter results are actually a testament to what we have established for ourselves.

With that, I will start on Slide 5 with the highlights for the quarter. For the first quarter, we have again delivered strong performance, delivering growth above market, expanding profitability and achieving solid cash generation. Our teams continue to execute against our value creation road map, capitalizing on secular trends with our portfolio of innovative technologies. As OEMs are adopting strategies to advance electrification, CO2 reduction and vehicle differentiation, we realized a 17% increase in value added sales and delivered 39% growth in EBITDA and solid cash from operations.

Further, we delivered on a favorable product mix as well, driven by our disciplined portfolio strategy and strong execution, despite supply chain disruptions affecting our customers. During the first quarter, we also benefited from an OEM mix shift towards premium vehicles as OEMs managed through supply chain constraints. Tim will provide more detail on that in a moment. That said, we are confident that we have positioned superior for consistent growth above market in the high single-digit range for the foreseeable future.

Highlighting our product positioning actually is the fact that 19 inch and greater wheels in this quarter, represented over 43% of our shipments, compared to less than 30% in 2019. I will discuss other portfolio drivers in a later slide, that I think you will find interesting. These results underscore our operational capabilities and our portfolio strength. The combination of which has positioned Superior for continued profitable growth well into the future.

Moving on to Slide 6. We remain committed to executing our strategy to deliver shareholder value. When I first introduced this strategy, we were actually purely focused on stabilizing the business. Once we completed that, we moved rapidly into driving operational excellence, adds across the business, which had been tremendously successful. This discipline resulted in improved gross margins, specifically in our North American operations, expanded EBITDA margins globally, and an accelerated drive to realize synergies across the entire company, especially between our 2 regions, North America and Europe.

This improved profitability translated into enhanced cash flow generation and a stronger financial position. In addition to improving margins and cash flow, we are well positioned to drive consistent profitable growth, as you have witnessed over the last several quarters. We continue to develop our portfolio, bringing new sophisticated technologies to market, enabling us to secure additional new business wins and further expand our customer base. As we continue to make progress along this road map, our results clearly demonstrate that our strategy is working, creating incremental shareholder value with each step.

Slide 7 showcases a major achievement from executing the strategy I described on the prior slide, driving efficiencies and enhancing profitability. Year-over-year, the EBITDA margin of our North American operations expanded more than 500 basis points, despite facing stiff headwinds, including the temporary shutdown of our Mexican facilities in February, due to power outage, supply chain constraints and volatile customer demand. We look forward to maintaining this trend of margin expansion as the year continues, driving our strengthened portfolio and continued execution of our operational excellence initiatives.

Moving on to Slide 8. As we have said many times, we are in a unique position to address that attractive secular trends that we believe will support growth for years to come. OEMs have clear mandates towards electrification, fuel efficiency and aerodynamics as well as consumer preference for larger diameter wheels with premium content. Superior's efforts to maintain its leadership from a technology perspective, has driven both significant content increases and growth over market. More specifically, looking at the key trend, we have seen our wheels utilizing these technologies significantly grow as a percent of our portfolio.

Importantly, our customers recognize the value of these technologies, affording us up charges between 50% and at times actually more than 50% compared to a base level wheel. These technologies have also created a significant competitive advantage over some of our competitors as many premium customer demand these capabilities to do business with them. As we continue to innovate and develop our portfolio of premium technologies, we expect to further solidify our leadership position and capture long-term growth.

To that end, moving on to Slide 9, I am pleased to say Superior has been named as a finalist for the prestigious PACE Award for our PVD technology, which offers an environmentally friendly highly durable alternative to chrome. In addition, this technology offers an average mass reduction of over 10 pounds per vehicle, which improved vehicle efficiency and reduces CO2 emissions. It is a proven technology that was launched on the Ford F-150 last year and actually one a Ford Global Excellence Award. We are honored to be in the final group considered for the PACE Award and see this as a testament to the outstanding work of our teams, further underscoring the innovative market-leading technology we offer our customers.

Moving on to Slide 10. Here you see some of the exciting product and customer first, we launched in the first both in North America and in Europe. In North America, we launched content on the VW Atlas, the Dodge Ram and the Nissan Micra. The Atlas launch actually is our first with Volkswagen, in North America, consistent with our strategy to grow the European OEMs in this region, and leveraging the relationship we have with VW in Europe. The Dodge Ram launch is the first platform which features our matte finish technology. In Europe, we launched content on the Volvo XC60 and XC40, the Land Rover Defender and the Range Rover Sport, the latter of which marked our first 23-inch wheel using our flow forming lightweighting technology.

Before I turn over the call to Tim, let me quickly discuss the current industry environment on Slide 11. The IHS forecast, which have been reduced over the last 8 weeks are still showing significant improvements for light vehicle production in 2021 versus last year. Having said that, the recovery to 2019 levels is still underway. As a reminder, we had taken a conservative market recovery outlook in our last guide. So effectively, IHS guidance has now closed the gap to our original outlook. Our underlying market assumptions of our full year outlook remain intact. We remain confident that the industry recovery will continue for some time to come. However, we are currently monitoring the ongoing semiconductor shortages and other supply chain challenges, which may result in highly volatile customer demand throughout the year. We are also following continued COVID restrictions that are primarily affecting the European end market.

With this in mind, we are maintaining our full year guidance. For the full year, we anticipate delivering adjusted EBITDA in the range of $160 million to $180 million and cash flow from operations in the range of $110 million to $130 million. Our focus will continue to be on enhanced profitability and driving cash generation, including -- I am very pleased with our strong results in the first quarter and I am confident that our growth-over-market momentum and enhanced margins we'll continue to support EBITDA growth and cash generation. The enhanced cash position and additional financial flexibility, stemming from the recent extension of our revolving credit facility, will enable us to invest more in the business, continue to deleverage our company and to deliver enhanced value to shareholders. I would like to thank our entire team for their hard work, and I also would like to compliment our outstanding leadership team in executing on our strategic plan to drive these results. With that, I will turn the call over to Tim. Tim?

Thank you, Majdi, and good morning everyone. The first quarter of 2021 was another quarter of outstanding financial performance for Superior, and another quarter of sequential growth above market for the company. As reflected on Slide 13, value added sales adjusted for FX increased 17% in the first quarter, compared to the prior year period. This represents 19% growth-over-market. Superior's growth-over-market continues to be driven by the company's sale of larger diameter wheels with premium content. This shift in product mix, was boosted in the first quarter as our customers generally preserved limited supplies of semiconductors for their more profitable vehicles, the larger and premium vehicles and therefore shifted production accordingly. These vehicles are disproportionately equipped with larger diameter wheels with premium content. In addition, favorable foreign exchange enhanced value added sales in the quarter.

On Slide 14, you'll find the regional breakdown of unit shipments, net sales and value-added sales for the quarter compared to the prior year period. Real unit shipments in the first quarter were $4.5 million, a 5% increase compared to the prior year period. All of this increase in unit shipments was in North America and as much as Europe's shipments were essentially flat year-over-year. Net sales increased to $358 million for the quarter, compared to $301 million in the prior year period. This 19% increase reflects the increase in value-added sales, favorable foreign exchange and the rising cost of aluminum. Value-added sales increased to $207 million compared to $170 million in the prior year period, a 22% increase before adjustment for foreign exchange.

In the first quarter, we reported net income of $13 million or diluted earnings per share of $0.18 compared to a net loss of $190 million or a loss of $7.84 per diluted share in the prior year period. This was largely the result of a non-recurring, non-cash impairment charge of goodwill and other definite live intangibles related to the acquisition of our European operations in 2017. Net income in the first quarter of 2021 includes a $0.8 million tax provision, which differs from the statutory rate, primarily due to valuation allowance, the release of an uncertain tax position, and a mix of earnings among tax jurisdictions.

Slide 16 is a bridge of adjusted EBITDA from the first quarter of 2020 to the first quarter of 2021. Adjusted EBITDA increased to $55 million for the quarter compared to $40 million in the prior year period. This almost 40% increase was primarily driven by favorable product mix, a stronger euro, and improvement in operational performance, partially offset by the timing of customer recovery of rising aluminum prices and a cold water precipitated power outage in Mexico. All 4 of our Mexican facilities were isled for 6 days this past February.

First quarter cash flow is described on Slide on 17. Cash flow from operating activities was $18 million compared to $31 million in the prior year period. The decrease was primarily driven by increased working capital to support higher sales, partially offset by growth in earnings and lower cash taxes. Cash used in investing activities decreased to $11 million compared to $14 million in the prior year period. The difference reflects the timing of capital expenditures, not a change in our capital investment strategy. Cash used by financing activities was $4 million compared to cash provided by financing activities of $189 million in the first quarter of 2020.

This change was primarily due to drawdowns on the revolving credit facilities in Europe and North America in 2020, due to the uncertainty associated with the emerging pandemic, and proceeds from the European equipment loan in 2020. We paid $3 million in preferred dividends during the quarter, drew $2 million on the European equipment loan and made payments on funded debt of $1 million. Taken together, we generated $3 million in free cash flow in the quarter.

The company's capital structure is outlined on Slide 18. Funded debt was $630 million at quarter end, cash on hand, $154 million, net debt was therefore $477 million, $14 million less than the prior quarter and $65 million less than the prior year period. Free cash flow remains a key objective of Superior. As of March 31, 2021, liquidity, including cash and available amounts under our committed revolving credit facilities was $379 million.

The company's debt maturity profile is depicted on Slide 19. On May 3, we amended and extended the U.S. revolving credit facility. The new commitment of $132.5 million with a step down to $107.5 million in May 2022. will mature in October 2023, 2.5 years from now. We believe this facility is more than adequate considering the increased earnings power of the company and our enhanced cash position. Furthermore, we are in discussions with our European banking partners regarding the extension of the European revolver. More to come on that soon. There are no near-term maturities of funded debt. The term loan matures in 2024 and the senior notes in 2025. We are in compliance with all loan covenants. Significant liquidity is available to the company in the form of cash and available amounts under the revolving credit facilities. Deleveraging the balance sheet remains a top priority for Superior.

Our full year 2021 outlook can be found on Slide 20. Not with standing Superior's outstanding financial performance in the first quarter, we do not intend to change 2021 guidance at this time, given the uncertainties associated with possible OEM supply chain disruption, especially the availability of semiconductors, and the possible associated impact on our customers' vehicle production schedules. Furthermore, COVID-19 continues to be disruptive in Europe. Having said that, we remain confident in our ability to continue to generate profitable growth as we execute our strategic priorities. With respect to industry production volumes, we continue to expect a recovery to pre-COVID levels over time, and believe wheel unit shipments will be in the range of $16.9 million to $17.7 million this year.

Net sales will be in the range of $1.3 billion to $1.37 billion and value-added sales will be in the range of $740 million to $780 million, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA of $160 million to $180 million. This sales outlook assumes industry production recovery in 2021 in the mid-teen percentage range across our global footprint, an increase in aluminum prices and a continuing shift to larger diameter wheels of premium content. This guidance includes an estimate of the impact of the semiconductor shortage on the industry and therefore our sales, and the previously described temporary shutdown of our Mexican operations as a result of the power outage in February. Despite the cash flow from operations, we expect to be in the $110 million to $130 million range for the year.

Finally, capital expenditures should approximate $75 million, a portion of which is carryover from 2020. A significant portion of this spend is for investments in our wheel finishing capabilities as we continue to develop our capabilities and advance our portfolio of wheel products. That concludes our prepared remarks. Majdi?

We'll do closing remarks later.

All right, very good. Thank you, Tim and Majdi. Let's go ahead with the Q&A session, please. Sadie, Please go ahead.

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from Gary Prestopino with Barrington Research.

Couple of questions here. #1, are you continuing to see in the early stages of Q2 here, the OEMs favor in production of more than their high-end models versus their lower-end models due to the chip constraints?

Yes, Gary. Obviously, all of the OEMs as they've come out with their earnings reports has stated same with us that they continue to face challenges with micro chip shortage. Shortages in actually Q2 is continuing that momentum, and recovery possibly during the second half, but it remains to be see. So with limited resources, limited supply, it goes without saying they continue to stay focused on the platforms that offer the highest profitability and the highest content, and we expect that to continue, although Q2 would demonstrate even more pressure on that front. But the allocation to higher-contented vehicles will continue.

Okay. That's what I was trying to get at is the cadence -- I think you answered the question, the cadence of what to expect going forward, at least if it goes along the predictions of what the OEMs are saying as Q2 is going to be somewhat challenged, but they're thinking that Q3 and Q4 some of this will let up. Is that the way you're looking at it?

Yes, that's correct. And that's really what IHS has signaled. They ploughed off a lot of the recovery into the seconds half. They've downgraded Q2 and upgraded second half, which is consistent with we're hearing from customers.

Okay. And then just another couple of questions here. 19 inch wheels or greater, where they at about 40% in Q4, in terms of newer units and they increased to 43%?

That's about right.

Okay. So 40% to 43%. And then in terms of -- between your European operations and your North American operations, have you closed that gap on adjusted EBITDA margins? I think there was a big gap there one time. Has it closed to the point where it's equilibrialized or could you maybe give us some direction there?

Gary, it's Tim. By and large as a consequence of the actions that were taken shortly after Majdi arrived at the company, more specifically structural cost changes, step changes if you will, in the cost structure in Mexico, including the shifting of the Fayetteville operations down in Mexico. That step change has by and large resulted in margins as between Europe and North America, which are now very, very similar. So that's the long answer to your question. The short answer is, yes, the gap is closed.

Our next question comes from Mike Ward with Benchmark.

I'm wondering if you can help me with something. Majdi, if I got this right, you see all these stories, and then you see the videos online about some of these vehicles like at Ford in particular, that are largely produced, sitting in parking lots. They got the wheels on but they're may be missing one chip. So they haven't been gated yet by Ford. How does that work with you? Are you getting the revenue or are they paying in cash? Is it considered a sale?

No, it's absolutely considered a sale, the short answer. As they're parking vehicles waiting for chips, it is a sale.

Right. It is a sale. Okay. Now does that create a backlog? I know you guys get pretty consistent schedules, and I know they're doing their best to allocate the chips to the most important vehicles and things like that. And I think the rule of thumb is basically, when you get these 30, 60, 90-day type schedules from the vehicle manufacturers, the 30-day schedules are pretty much 99% to100% in line. Is that where the pressure is coming? You're getting cut backs at the last minute or are they just given you cautious build schedules going out 60 to 90 days, more longer-term?

Mike, I would tell you, it's a testament to the execution of this team, and I'm on the calls every week sometimes every day with the team as they try to manage through volatility. So your statement in a prior word is correct, stability, but our schedules change almost on a daily basis, and our team has been -- our team -- the growth-over-market story of 19%, Mike, in the market, with the strategy taking hold, we said we want to be on premium vehicles, we said we wanted to deal with larger wheels, electrification on the Marquee, lightweighting. Our lightweighting volume Mike is twice what it was just 12 months ago. So the strategy is taking hold. But on top of it is a team that is responding to customers in an unbelievable way to shift their mix, to satisfy their production needs and that has manifested itself in these growth numbers we'll share with you.

Yes, because in the past, that would have been hugely disruptive to performance.

Yes.

Any insight you can give on what's going on in Europe. It looks like the economies are reopening. Are you seeing that reflected? I'm guessing that -- particularly as the markets a lot of more shut down in that first quarter that we're going to see some pretty substantial type increases as we get into Q2, Q3 Q. Are you seeing that reflected in your orders from the -- from your customers?

Yes, overall, Mike, the recovery in Europe was always viewed as one that will be slower than that of North America. Europe is not going to reach 2019 levels for some time, and we came into the year knowing that North America will be stronger than Europe, and it continues to be. Now surprisingly, if you look at Q1, the European market was down 1% year-on-year, while North America was down 4.5%. For us, out story in Q1 is consistent with that. Actually, North America was up 27% in revenue and our revenue in Europe was up 7%. Both regions are operating from our standpoint at significantly growth above market. The outlook is -- continues to be -- in the year you'll see North America at 20% and IHS got Europe at 14%. We think it may still be in the 10% range. But we are seeing the recovery hold as we expected before we issued our earnings call.

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Richard Phelan with Deutsche Bank.

I just had 2 questions, the first is a little similar to some of the other comments about the cadence here in terms of your guidance. Obviously, the adjusted EBITDA in quarter one was great and represents 1/3 of the full year guidance at the midpoint, and I recognize that you've qualified this (inaudible) conservative or reflecting the concerns regarding the slowdown. If I look at Q2 of last year, adjusted EBITDA was in fact negative $4 million, so barring a disastrous production from your customers in terms of the slowdowns, I would assume that even Q2 could still beat last year, which was significantly impacted by Q2. The first question is really how much of this underperformance is in your guidance for adjusted EBITDA for the year, concentrated in the second quarter? And then the second question is really related to your refinancing. With the improvement in net leverage, you mentioned that you're talking to the banks about the European revolver, you've obviously made progress in the U.S. Any thoughts on the bond refinance prospects, and what actions you might with respect to the preferred in conjunction with that?

Okay. Richard, it's Tim. Thank you for your questions. First of all, with respect to the guidance. Let me just start by saying, just to be clear, that we do not anticipate any sort of -- our performance in Q2 of this year to be anywhere near that of last year. Last year was an anomaly. So no, we do not -- we still expect to perform really fairly well in Q2. Here's how I think about the remainder of this year and the guidance. And by the way, it's just impossible to know for sure. So we're just acting out of an abundance of caution and I think being conservative and not changing our guidance up. Here's how I think about it by quarter. In the first quarter, notwithstanding all the difficulties that the customers had with supply chain and we had to some extent with respect to our operations in Mexico and the power outage, all of that covered up if you will, by this mix shift -- this favorable mix shift in Q1, and frankly our company's ability to manage that -- the operators' ability to manage that effectively, and therefore the company's ability to convert on those sales. That's what gave rise to this 40% improvement in EBITDA and 330 basis points better margin. Now in Q2 and Q3, again nobody knows for sure, depending on who you want to believe, it looks like Q2 from the standpoint of OEM production schedule, difficulties will be the worst quarter. It's already started a little bit here in North America, we're seeing it in the facility closures, with many of our customers and the call-offs on the production. But there is reason to believe that, that may subside in Q3. Okay? So a little rough going here in Q2, perhaps, especially in North America. Nothing, nothing, nothing like last year, but just some lower production levels and perhaps some slide in Q3. Now what may happen in Q4 is that to the extent the assemblers, the OEMs had to throttle back production in Q2, and perhaps Q3, because inventories are low and will be may be even lower after this, we may see a super charge in if you will, of volumes in Q4. So what I've just laid out here is a scenario that frankly if it comes to pass, could result in a year for our company, which is much better than the guidance that we have out there right now. So roundabout way of saying is the fact that we haven't changed our guidance is just out of an abundance of caution, because of the uncertainty, notwithstanding the scenario I just laid out, which would really be quite favorable for the company. And in terms of our capital structure, Clemens, who is here with me today is our Treasurer and he is in conversations with our European banking partners. As you may know, we have a EUR60 million facility over there and listen Clemens, I'm just going to let you give him firsthand knowledge on where you're at with that.

Thank you, Tim. Yes. So in regards to the European revolver, we have initiated the discussions and I think I'll leave it with, we expect that to close out successfully in the near future. I don't want to put a specific date on that. And then the broader question you asked about the bond refinance, I think for us it's actually -- the broader question is about the overall capital structure and clearly we are in also in discussions with our banking partners about this topic. We have been -- it obviously is a continuous dialog. We are aware of the especially levered markets being very supportive. Having said that, there is, you actually decided to bond. For us this is not just a bond. It's the overall cap structure. So I think your point is valid. But I think it's going to take us also a moment to actually gather all the different bits and pieces together and move forward.

Our next question comes from James Reynell with Credit Suisse.

Congratulations on your results. Just following on from your last question, when you think about your capital structure and ways you can optimize it, how -- are you thinking about that with strong results gives you clearly more optionality? Are you thinking about maybe moving some debt up the capital structure, moving towards a more senior secured-type structure? Yes, that would be my first question.

James it's Tim. First of all, I think that to further a little bit on Clemens point here, there is no immediate need to make any dramatic changes to the company's capital structure. We did, as you know, adjust the revolver here in North America, and we intend to do the same with Europe. Having said that, to your point, what this company is all about at this point, ever since Majdi assembled this team here, is about improving financial performance of the company and therefore the free cash flow that results from that, and from that the deleveraging of the balance sheet, which this company has had a fair degree of success in doing through driving EBITDA performance, notwithstanding the pandemic last year, but especially with respect to management of working capital on the balance sheet. So what we've been about is improving performance, increasing free cash flow and therefore deleveraging the balance sheet. And what that will do, if we pay attention to that, and if the leverage finance markets stay strong, and there's every reason to believe that they will, we'll put ourselves in a position to make any appropriate changes -- long-term changes to the capital structure at the appropriate time.

And the second question is, what was factoring balance at the end of the quarter?

The factoring balance, if I recall correctly was $106 million in outstanding receivables factor.

This concludes today's Q&A. I would now like to turn the call back over to Majdi for closing remarks.

Thank you. In closing, we are excited about the momentum we have created by executing our portfolio of technologies and establishing a performance culture that Tim referred to. We have a business built for profitable growth as the industry recovers. While challenges persist in the markets, we have proven that we can manage through a very volatile operating environment and respond in a way that protects all of our stakeholders and deliver tangible value to our shareholders. I wish you the best and I thank you for joining us today. This concludes our call.

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's teleconference. You may now disconnect.