Sunoco LP (SUN) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Sunoco LP's Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce Scott Grischow, Senior Vice President of Finance. Scott, you may begin.

您好，歡迎參加 Sunoco LP 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。現在我很高興介紹財務高級副總裁 Scott Grischow。史考特，你可以開始啦。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. On the call with me this morning are Joe Kim, Sunoco LP's President Chief Executive Officer; Karl Fails, Chief Operating Officer; Austin Harkness, Chief Commercial Officer; Brian Hand, Chief Sales Officer; and Dylan Bramhall, Chief Financial Officer. Today's call will contain forward-looking statements that include expectations and assumptions regarding the partnership's future operations and financial performance. Actual results could differ materially, and the partnership undertakes no obligation to update these statements based on subsequent events. Please refer to our earnings release as well as our filings with the SEC for a list of these factors.

謝謝大家，早安。今天早上與我一起通話的有 Sunoco LP 總裁兼執行長 Joe Kim；卡爾‧費爾斯 (Karl Fails)，營運長；奧斯汀‧哈克尼斯 (Austin Harkness)，首席商務官； Brian Hand，首席銷售長；以及財務長 Dylan Bramhall。今天的電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述，其中包括對合作夥伴關係未來營運和財務表現的預期和假設。實際結果可能存在重大差異，且合夥企業不承擔根據後續事件更新這些聲明的義務。請參閱我們的收益報告以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，以取得這些因素的清單。

During today's call, we will also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash flow as adjusted. Please refer to the Sunoco LP website for a reconciliation of each financial measure. The fourth quarter capped off a record year for Sunoco. The integration of our Fuel Distribution business with a strong and stable pipeline and terminal network, increased our stability, strengthened our financial foundation and enhanced our opportunities for growth. In the fourth quarter, the partnership delivered adjusted EBITDA of $446 million, excluding approximately $7 million of onetime transaction expenses.

在今天的電話會議中，我們還將討論某些非 GAAP 財務指標，包括調整後的 EBITDA 和調整後的可分配現金流量。請參閱 Sunoco LP 網站以了解每項財務指標的對帳情況。第四季為 Sunoco 創下了歷史新高的一年。我們的燃料分銷業務與強大而穩定的管道和終端網路的整合，提高了我們的穩定性，鞏固了我們的財務基礎並增強了我們的成長機會。第四季度，該合作公司的調整後息稅折舊攤提前利潤為 4.46 億美元，不包括約 700 萬美元的一次性交易費用。

We spent $74 million on growth capital and $58 million on maintenance capital. Fourth quarter distributable cash flow as adjusted was $261 million. Our trailing 12-month coverage ratio at the end of the quarter was 1.9x. Turning to some key highlights from our full year 2024 performance. Our adjusted EBITDA, excluding transaction-related expenses, was $1.56 billion, representing a 62% increase compared to 2023.

我們花了 7,400 萬美元用於成長資本，花費了 5,800 萬美元用於維護資本。經調整後的第四季可分配現金流為 2.61 億美元。我們本季末的過去 12 個月覆蓋率為 1.9 倍。談談我們 2024 年全年業績的一些關鍵亮點。我們的調整後 EBITDA（不含交易相關費用）為 15.6 億美元，較 2023 年成長 62%。

I'd like to now take a moment to review how we achieved these record annual results. First, we began 2024 with an adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $975 million to $1 billion. Even after the strategic divestiture of our West Texas assets in April, the strength of our core business allowed us to maintain this guidance for the legacy Sunoco operations. Next, the NuStar acquisition closed in early May, and we revised our 2024 adjusted EBITDA guidance upwards to be in a range of $1.51 billion to $1.57 billion, including approximately $50 million of synergies. I'm pleased to report that we delivered results at the high end of that adjusted range as a result of an efficient integration process, coupled with our ongoing focus on strong operational execution and expense discipline.

現在我想花點時間回顧一下我們是如何取得這些創紀錄的年度業績的。首先，我們以 9.75 億美元至 10 億美元的調整後 EBITDA 指引範圍開始 2024 年。即使在四月策略性地剝離西德州資產之後，我們核心業務的強勁表現仍使我們能夠為原有的 Sunoco 業務維持這一預期。接下來，NuStar 收購於 5 月初完成，我們將 2024 年調整後的 EBITDA 指引上調至 15.1 億美元至 15.7 億美元之間，其中包括約 5,000 萬美元的協同效應。我很高興地報告，由於高效的整合過程，加上我們持續注重強大的營運執行和費用紀律，我們取得了調整後範圍高端的業績。

Our liquidity position and balance sheet remains strong. At the end of 2024, we had approximately $1.3 billion of liquidity remaining on our revolving credit facility. Leverage at the end of the year was 4.1x, flat to last quarter. As a reminder, when we announced the NuStar acquisition, we targeted being back at our 4x leverage target within 12 to 18 months following closing. We accomplished this goal within 5 months post-close, which has put us in a position to focus on other elements of our capital allocation policy.

我們的流動性狀況和資產負債表依然強勁。截至 2024 年底，我們的循環信貸額度剩餘約 13 億美元流動資金。年末槓桿率為4.1倍，與上季持平。提醒一下，當我們宣布收購 NuStar 時，我們的目標是在收購完成後 12 到 18 個月內恢復 4 倍槓桿目標。我們在交易結束後的 5 個月內實現了這一目標，這使我們能夠專注於資本配置政策的其他要素。

To that end, on January 27, we declared an $0.8865 per unit distribution, a 1.25% increase over last quarter. This strong financial performance puts the partnership in a position to implement this increase 1 quarter ahead of the typical timing for distribution increases. As we announced in late January, we are targeting a distribution growth of at least 5% this year. We expect to announce future increases on a quarterly basis. Our strong long-term financial outlook and track record of delivering accretive growth provide a clear path for continued distribution increases.

為此，我們在 1 月 27 日宣布每單位分配 0.8865 美元，比上一季增加 1.25%。強勁的財務表現使該合作夥伴能夠比通常的分配增加時間提前一個季度實現這一增長。正如我們在一月底宣布的那樣，我們今年的分銷目標是成長至少 5%。我們預計將按季度宣布未來的成長。我們強勁的長期財務前景和實現增值增長的記錄為持續增加分銷提供了明確的道路。

I would like to conclude by stating that we are confident in our ability to meet our 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $1.9 billion to $1.95 billion. Our financial position remains strong, enabling us to build on our track record of accretive growth while maintaining a healthy balance sheet and targeting a secure and growing distribution for our unitholders. With that, I will now turn it over to Karl to walk through some additional thoughts on our fourth quarter performance.

最後，我想說，我們有信心實現 2025 年調整後 EBITDA 預期範圍 19 億美元至 19.5 億美元。我們的財務狀況依然強勁，這使我們能夠在保持健康的資產負債表並為我們的單位持有人提供安全且不斷增長的分配的同時，鞏固我們的增值增長記錄。說完這些，我現在將話題交給卡爾，讓他談談對我們第四季表現的一些其他想法。

Thanks, Scott. Good morning, everyone. Our results this quarter finished out a record year for Sunoco as we strengthened our portfolio and significantly grew our cash flows. With the addition of the NuStar assets, we now have a balanced mix between our Fuel Distribution business and our midstream asset portfolio. Each of our 3 segments demonstrated strong performance in 2024 and are set up to materially contribute to delivering on our 2025 guidance.

謝謝，斯科特。大家早安。由於我們加強了產品組合併大幅增加了現金流，本季的業績為 Sunoco 創造了創紀錄的一年。隨著 NuStar 資產的加入，我們現在的燃料分銷業務和中游資產組合達到了平衡。我們的三個部門在 2024 年都表現強勁，並將為實現 2025 年目標做出實質貢獻。

Let me share some more perspective on our fourth quarter and full year results by segment. Starting with our Fuel Distribution segment. Adjusted EBITDA was $192 million compared to $253 million last quarter and $209 million in the fourth quarter of 2023. We distributed 2.2 billion gallons, up 1% versus last quarter and down 2% versus the fourth quarter of last year. Reported margin for the quarter was $0.106 per gallon compared to $0.128 per gallon last quarter and $0.118 per gallon for the fourth quarter of 2023.

讓我按部門分享更多我們第四季和全年業績的看法。從我們的燃料分配部門開始。調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.92 億美元，而上一季為 2.53 億美元，2023 年第四季為 2.09 億美元。我們銷售了 22 億加侖，比上一季成長 1%，比去年第四季下降 2%。本季度報告的利潤率為每加侖 0.106 美元，而上季度為每加侖 0.128 美元，2023 年第四季為每加侖 0.118 美元。

Let me put the fourth quarter results in perspective. As I have shared in the past, the basis of our gross profit optimization strategy is to maximize what the market provides. This results in some quarters being higher volume and lower margin and others presenting higher margin opportunities. When you look at our fourth quarter performance and adjust for the sale of our West Texas retail business in the second quarter, our results were consistent with the fourth quarter of last year, reinforcing that the segment results were very good this quarter. When we step back and look at the full year, the strength of our Fuel Distribution segment is even more apparent.

讓我來客觀地看一下第四季的業績。正如我過去所分享的，我們的毛利優化策略的基礎是最大限度地提供市場所提供的一切。這導致一些季度的銷量較高但利潤較低，而其他季度則呈現更高的利潤機會。當您查看我們第四季度的業績並根據第二季度西德克薩斯零售業務的出售情況進行調整時，我們的業績與去年第四季度一致，這進一步證明本季度該部門的業績非常好。當我們回顧全年時，我們的燃料分銷部門的實力更加明顯。

We reported over $900 million of adjusted EBITDA, and we set a new fuel volume record even with the sale of West Texas and the movement of transmix processing margin to the Terminal segment. While fourth quarter was in line with last year, our second and third quarter results were much stronger than last year. The best thing is that as we entered 2025, the same market dynamics and internal capabilities are in place for us to deliver another record year. We continue to believe in the resiliency of global refined product demand. Many companies in the sector have understood this for a while, and we think the market is starting to understand that the products that we sell and distribute are going to be around for decades.

我們報告的調整後 EBITDA 超過 9 億美元，儘管西德克薩斯州的出售和混合油輸送處理利潤轉移到終端部門，我們還是創下了新的燃油銷售記錄。雖然第四季的業績與去年持平，但我們的第二季和第三季的業績比去年強勁得多。最好的事情是，當我們進入 2025 年時，同樣的市場動態和內部能力將使我們能夠再創紀錄一年。我們仍然相信全球成品油需求具有彈性。該行業的許多公司早已認識到了這一點，我們認為市場也開始認識到，我們銷售和分銷的產品將存在數十年。

In our Pipeline Systems segment, adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $193 million, excluding $5 million of transaction expenses, compared to $147 million in the third quarter. On the volume side, we reported 1.4 million barrels per day of throughput. This strong performance represents increased volumes across nearly all our major pipeline systems as a result of more consistent refinery operations as well as increases in seasonal demand growth in the Mid-Con region. In addition, our financial performance was supported by some contractual true-ups. Our Permian joint venture with Energy Transfer continues to make progress on integrating the combined systems with increases seen this quarter, and we expect that performance will continue to strengthen as we move into 2025.

在我們的管線系統部門，第四季的調整後 EBITDA 為 1.93 億美元，不包括 500 萬美元的交易費用，而第三季為 1.47 億美元。從產量方面來看，我們報告的產量為每天 140 萬桶。這一強勁表現表明，由於煉油廠運作更加穩定以及中西部地區季節性需求成長，我們幾乎所有主要管道系統的產量都有所增加。此外，我們的財務表現也得到了一些合約調整的支持。我們與 Energy Transfer 的 Permian 合資企業在整合聯合系統方面繼續取得進展，本季度取得了成長，我們預計，隨著 2025 年的到來，業績將繼續增強。

For the segment as a whole, we are looking forward to having a full year of contributions in 2025 and are confident our assets will continue to perform well. Moving on to our Terminals segment. Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $61 million, excluding $2 million of transaction expenses compared to $70 million in the third quarter. We reported around 600,000 barrels per day of throughput with some seasonal decreases relative to last quarter. Taking a step back and looking at the entire year, this segment delivered consistent and stable income and reliable operations, and we are well positioned for 2025.

對於整個部門而言，我們期待在 2025 年實現全年貢獻，並相信我們的資產將繼續表現良好。接下來是我們的終端部分。第四季調整後 EBITDA 為 6,100 萬美元，不包括 200 萬美元的交易費用，而第三季為 7,000 萬美元。我們報告的日產量約為 60 萬桶，與上一季相比有一些季節性下降。回顧全年，該部門實現了持續穩定的收入和可靠的運營，我們已為 2025 年做好了準備。

Before I wrap up, let me talk a little bit more about 2025. In December, we shared our guidance for the year. The growth in adjusted EBITDA to a range of $1.9 billion to $1.95 billion represents our confidence in our business and in the returns we will deliver from the investments that we have made. That confidence is supported by a strong portfolio of assets that will perform well in a variety of market conditions and proven capabilities of our organization to optimize and grow our asset base.

在結束之前，讓我再多談談 2025 年。12 月，我們分享了本年度的指導方針。調整後的 EBITDA 成長至 19 億美元至 19.5 億美元，這體現了我們對我們的業務以及我們從投資中獲得的回報的信心。這種信心源於強大的資產組合，這些資產組合將在各種市場條件下表現良好，並且我們組織已證明有能力優化和擴大我們的資產基礎。

We feel just as good about this guidance today as we did 2 months ago when we shared it with you. Even with a larger portfolio of business, our focus remains the same: strong operational execution, expense discipline, commercial creativity and profit optimization and ensuring we deliver strong returns on capital that we deploy.

我們今天對這項指導的感覺和兩個月前與你們分享時一樣好。即使業務組合規模擴大，我們的重點始終不變：強大的營運執行力、費用紀律、商業創造力和利潤優化，以及確保我們部署的資本實現豐厚的回報。

I will now turn it over to Joe to share his final thoughts. Joe?

現在我將把話題交給喬分享他的最後想法。喬？

Thanks, Karl. Good morning, everyone. We delivered a very strong 2024. We came into the year financially healthy, and we finished the year bigger and stronger than where we started. Within a very eventful year, there are a few highlights that I want to point out.

謝謝，卡爾。大家早安。我們在 2024 年取得了非常出色的成績。我們今年的財務狀況良好，而我們今年年底的業績也比年初更加強勁。這是多事的一年，我想指出幾個亮點。

The NuStar acquisition was obviously the headliner. This was a home run acquisition. The integration is done. Our balance sheet goals were achieved in less than 6 months. Synergies are flowing to the bottom line.

NuStar 的收購顯然是頭條新聞。這是一次本壘打收購。集成已完成。我們的資產負債表目標在不到六個月的時間內就實現了。協同效應正流向底線。

And thus, for our equity holders, we have already delivered double-digit accretion within the first year of ownership. This acquisition was obviously our biggest to date, but we have also shown our ability to deliver disciplined, value-creating growth year after year. Here are a couple of insightful metrics that support this. First, our credit profile continues to improve. We've had multiple credit rating upgrade since 2022.

因此，對於我們的股東來說，我們在所有權的第一年就已經實現了兩位數的成長。這次收購顯然是我們迄今為止最大的收購，但我們也展現了我們年復一年實現有紀律的、創造價值的成長的能力。以下有幾個支持這一觀點的有見地的指標。首先，我們的信用狀況持續改善。自 2022 年以來，我們的信用評級已多次升級。

Second, our DCF per common unit continues to grow. In fact, SUN is the only AMZI constituent to grow DCF per common unit for the last 8 consecutive years. And most importantly, we expect both of these metrics to continue on an upward trajectory. Strategically, the addition of the NuStar assets provides income diversification we now have 3 strong stable business segments. Looking forward, we expect the fundamentals for all 3 segments to remain very attractive in 2025 and beyond.

其次，我們的每普通股單位現金流量折現率持續成長。事實上，SUN 是過去連續 8 年中唯一每股 DCF 實現成長的 AMZI 成分股。最重要的是，我們預期這兩個指標都將繼續呈現上升趨勢。從策略上講，NuStar 資產的加入實現了收入多樣化，我們現在擁有 3 個強大且穩定的業務部門。展望未來，我們預計所有三個領域的基本面在 2025 年及以後仍將保持極具吸引力。

We're off to a strong start, and we expect 2025 to be another record year. Let me finish with one final thought. We've gained a solid reputation as a thoughtful defensive play within the midstream sector, given our ability to deliver strong results in volatile commodity environments as well as challenging macro environments such as inflation and even pandemics. I think it's well deserved, and we fully expect to positively differentiate ourselves within future challenges.

我們開局強勁，預計 2025 年將再次創下紀錄。最後，請容許我再說一句話。由於我們能夠在動盪的大宗商品環境以及通膨甚至流行病等嚴峻的宏觀環境中取得強勁業績，我們在中游領域贏得了深思熟慮的防禦性投資的良好聲譽。我認為這是當之無愧的，我們完全期待在未來的挑戰中積極地脫穎而出。

But let's also recognize that we are also a growth play. The products that we move and distribute will continue to fuel the U.S. and other economies across the world for decades to come. We have positioned ourselves to be a consolidator. We have a strong track record of identifying and delivering on value-creating growth.

但我們也要體認到，我們也是一個成長型企業。我們運輸和分銷的產品將在未來幾十年繼續推動美國和世界其他經濟的發展。我們將自己定位為一家整合者。我們在識別和實現創造價值的成長方面有著良好的記錄。

And finally, our strong performance, coupled with an equally strong financial outlook has resulted in distribution growth for our unitholders. This is the third year in a row that we have stepped up as a percentage increase. We started with 2%, then 4% and now we have targeted at least a 5% annual increase for this year. Our ability to accretively grow positions us to increase distributions on a quarterly basis, not only for 2025, but over a multiyear period. Operator, that concludes our prepared remarks.

最後，我們強勁的業績加上同樣強勁的財務前景為我們的基金單位持有人帶來了分配成長。這是我們連續第三年實現百分比增幅。我們從 2% 開始，然後是 4%，現在我們的目標是今年的年增長率至少達到 5%。我們的增值成長能力使我們能夠按季度增加分配，不僅適用於 2025 年，而且適用於多年期。接線員，我們的準備好的發言到此結束。

You may open the line for questions.

您可以開通熱線來回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) Justin Jenkins, Raymond James.

（操作員指示）賈斯汀·詹金斯、雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

Karl, you hit on a lot but I wanted to ask on Fuel Distribution in your opening remarks, but I'd maybe like to unpack some of the fourth quarter here and your early outlook for 2025, It does look like that lack of volatility that we had in both gasoline and diesel prices impacted fourth quarter fuel distribution results. Anything else that you maybe call out for 4Q and share early thoughts on 2025 business trends? And then if I could just sneak in maybe your thoughts on tariffs and if or how that would impact business and maybe generate opportunities for you guys?

卡爾，你談了很多，但我想在你的開場白中問一下關於燃料分銷的問題，但我可能想在這裡解釋一下第四季度的一些情況以及你對 2025 年的早期展望，看起來汽油和柴油價格缺乏波動影響了第四季度的燃料分銷結果。您對第四季還有什麼期望，或者對 2025 年商業趨勢有什麼初步想法嗎？然後我是否可以偷偷地問一下你們對關稅的看法，以及關稅是否會或如何影響業務，並為您創造機會？

Yes, Justin, this is Austin. Just a couple of quick housekeeping notes I want to make in reference to the CPG reference in your question, but -- and I get into the results and performance trends and kind of outlook going forward. As a reminder, as we've shared, and as Karl alluded to in his prepared remarks, the divestiture of the West Texas business and the move to segment reporting when we moved trans mix out of fuel distribution into terminals, it was worth about $0.01 of reported CPG margins. That's just something to keep in mind going forward.

是的，賈斯汀，我是奧斯汀。我只想針對您問題中提到的 CPG 做一些簡短的說明，然後我會談談結果和績效趨勢以及未來的前景。提醒一下，正如我們已經分享過的，正如卡爾在他準備好的發言中提到的，西德克薩斯業務的剝離和當我們將混合油從燃料分銷轉移到終端時轉向分部報告，這價值約 0.01 美元的 CPG 報告利潤率。這只是今後要牢記的事。

And separately, as we've shared in the past, I think the way that we think about the business is certainly the way that we manage the business and maybe a helpful lens to kind of interpret the results is really fuel profit versus volume or margin, which we really don't target a specific number or were optimized around either one of those variables independently. Now that said, looking at results, the fourth quarter was a strong quarter. If we take a step back and look at 2024 overall, it tracks very closely with how we describe the business, right? All the elements were there. So we talked about -- and Karl mentioned in his prepared remarks and we've shared in the past, there's going to be quarter-to-quarter variability in the business.

另外，正如我們過去所分享的那樣，我認為我們思考業務的方式肯定是我們管理業務的方式，也許解釋結果的一個有用視角是燃料利潤與銷量或利潤率，我們實際上並沒有針對特定的數字，也沒有圍繞其中任何一個變量進行獨立優化。話雖如此，從結果來看，第四季是一個強勁的季度。如果我們退一步來看 2024 年的整體情況，它與我們描述的業務非常接近，對嗎？所有的元素都已具備。因此，我們討論了——卡爾在他準備好的發言中提到，並且我們過去也分享過，業務將會出現季度間差異。

But over a 12-month period, we're going to consistently grow, right? And when you look at 2024, that's exactly what happened, right? So we had quarter-to-quarter variability. In fact, I think harshest criticism maybe you can levy against our fourth quarter results is just the fact that they followed 2 consecutive record quarters in Q2 and Q3, right? And so when you take the year as a whole, adjusted EBITDA for 2024 was up 5% year-over-year for the segment.

但在 12 個月的時間裡，我們會持續成長，對嗎？當你展望2024年時，事實就是這樣的，對嗎？因此我們存在季度間差異。事實上，我認為對我們第四季業績最嚴厲的批評可能是，第二季和第三季連續兩季創下紀錄，對嗎？因此，如果從全年來看，2024 年該部門的調整後 EBITDA 年比成長 5%。

And that's without the benefit of our West Texas business for close to 8 months. So the underlying fundamentals are as strong as ever for our Fuel Distribution business. Regarding our outlook for 2025 and beyond, there's a couple of things I'd share. First, the macro environment continues to be constructive. Breakevens remain elevated, and we're seeing some signs of stabilization and recovery in demand for refined products based on last couple of EIA prints.

這已經是我們西德州業務近 8 個月沒有獲利的情況了。因此，我們的燃料分銷業務的基本面一如既往地強勁。關於我們對 2025 年及以後的展望，我想分享幾點。一是宏觀環境持續向好。損益平衡點仍然較高，根據最近幾次的 EIA 數據，我們看到成品油需求出現一些穩定和復甦的跡象。

Looking at Sunoco specifically, we entered 2024 from a position of strength and momentum. And now with the NuStar acquisition under our belts, the business has never had a stronger foundation in terms of our asset base and scale. And so when you take that combined with our commercial teams and track record of execution, I mean, the business is really well positioned for growth not just in 2025 but beyond.

具體來看 Sunoco，我們以實力和動力進入 2024 年。現在，透過對 NuStar 的收購，我們的資產基礎和規模基礎已達到前所未有的強大。因此，當你將其與我們的商業團隊和執行記錄結合時，我的意思是，我們的業務不僅在 2025 年而且在以後都具有良好的成長條件。

Justin, this is Joe. Let me take the back half of your question about tariffs. As everybody knows, it's early. It's still exactly how everything is going to play out still undetermined but there are a couple of things that we do know. First is that all variables equal, we know the higher tariffs mean higher prices.

賈斯汀，這是喬。讓我來回答你關於關稅問題的後半部。大家都知道，現在還早。一切究竟將如何展開仍未確定，但有幾件事我們確實知道。首先，假設所有變數相同，我們知道關稅越高，價格就越高。

And within a higher inflation scenario, I think SUN, we have a very demonstrated good track record of strong results in inflationary period. In our scale, our commercial capabilities and our ability to manage expenses really pays off of this situation.

在通膨率較高的情況下，我認為，SUN，我們在通膨時期有著非常出色的業績記錄。在我們的規模、商業能力和管理費用的能力方面，這種情況確實帶來了回報。

The second thing that we know is that uncertainty leads to volatility. I think last week, early last week was a good example of that. Whenever the news came out about the Mexico and Canada tariffs, we saw commodity prices skyrocket, it popped really fast and then as continuous news came out, it dropped right back down. Again, we do very well involved to commodity environments, and we expect volatility to remain high on a going-forward basis. The bottom line is we see this as an opportunity to distinguish ourselves, and we feel very confident about our guidance that we put out for 2025.

我們知道的第二件事是不確定性會導致波動。我認為上週，特別是上周初就是一個很好的例子。每當有關墨西哥和加拿大關稅的消息傳出時，我們就會看到大宗商品價格飆升，價格上漲得非常快，然後隨著新聞的不斷傳出，價格又回落。再次，我們對商品環境的參與度很高，我們預計未來波動性仍將保持在高位。最重要的是，我們將此視為一個脫穎而出的機會，並且我們對我們為 2025 年制定的指導方針非常有信心。

And we feel very confident on going for 2026 and beyond.

我們對 2026 年及以後的發展充滿信心。

Awesome. Super helpful. I guess second question, if I could, is on growth CapEx of at least $400 million. Maybe help us understand the cadence of how you expect growth CapEx to be spent? And maybe how long do you think that growth CapEx run versus for some years?

驚人的。超有幫助。我想第二個問題，如果可以的話，是關於至少 4 億美元的成長資本支出。也許可以幫助我們了解您預期成長資本支出的節奏？您認為與幾年相比，資本支出成長會持續多久？

Yes, Justin. It's Karl. There's a couple of pieces to that related to growth CapEx. Really, the first point I'll make is our growth CapEx is not made up of a lot of big projects. It's really what I call optimization capital, either signing up new customers in our Fuel Distribution business or some optimization of our assets particularly on the NuStar side maybe to extract the synergies of some of the commercial synergies we've talked about.

是的，賈斯汀。是卡爾。有幾個部分與成長資本支出有關。實際上，我要說的第一點是，我們的成長資本支出不是由許多大項目組成的。這實際上就是我所說的優化資本，要么在我們的燃料分銷業務中簽約新客戶，要么對我們的資產進行一些優化，特別是在 NuStar 方面，也許可以提取我們所談到的一些商業協同效應。

So we have flexibility in those numbers. I mean, some of you, you saw that our '24 capital spend was a little lighter than our original guidance. We had some slippage of projects into '24. We've already accounted for that in our '24 guidance. But we have additional flexibility to flex that up and down as there are other opportunities.

所以我們對這些數字有一定的彈性。我的意思是，你們中的一些人發現我們 24 年的資本支出比我們最初的預期要少一些。我們的一些項目推遲到了24年。我們已經在 24 年指引中考慮到了這一點。但由於有其他機會，我們可以靈活地調整。

For example, roll up M&A opportunities. If we think that there's more of those, we can adjust that growth capital.

例如，匯總併購機會。如果我們認為還有更多這樣的情況，我們可以調整成長資本。

And then I think the final point is because of that flexibility, the time between when we spend the capital and when we're collecting the EBITDA or the cash flow from those is on the shorter side compared to maybe some other midstream companies. So I would expect you to see continued growth. I mean, we've talked about our DCF per common unit growth. I think it's the combination of that M&A, extracting synergies and us putting growth capital to bed that have delivered that.

然後我認為最後一點是由於這種靈活性，與其他一些中游公司相比，我們花費資本和收取 EBITDA 或現金流之間的時間相對較短。因此我期望你能看到持續的成長。我的意思是，我們已經討論了每單位普通股的 DCF 成長。我認為正是併購、綜效和成長資本的投入才實現了這個目標。

Theresa Chen, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的 Theresa Chen。

I wanted to touch on some of your previous comments on the macro outlook. On recent refining earnings calls, there have been comments by management teams indicating their bullishness for refined product demand or at least stability on a go-forward basis and into the next decade. Can you share your outlook on refined product demand across your own assets please?

我想談談您之前對宏觀前景的一些評論。在最近的煉油收益電話會議上，管理團隊發表評論表示，他們看好煉油產品的需求，或至少看好未來和未來十年的穩定。能否分享一下自有資產中成品油需求的展望？

Theresa, this is Joe. Theresa, as you know, we've been very consistent about our bullish view on the long-term attractiveness of the refined product sector. However, lately, I believe that the sector has been somewhat under looked -- overlooked and undervalued. And one of the reasons could be the investor focus on AI and impact on the natural gas market, I get it, it makes lot of sense, but strong fundamentals and a strong future outlook matter, too. Currently across the world, over 90% of transportation energy comes from refined products and another 5% comes from renewable, and you know that we also distribute renewables.

特蕾莎，這是喬。特蕾莎，如您所知，我們一直非常看好成品油行業的長期吸引力。然而，最近，我認為該行業有點被忽視和低估了。原因之一可能是投資人關注人工智慧及其對天然氣市場的影響，我明白，這很有道理，但強勁的基本面和強勁的未來前景也很重要。目前在世界範圍內，超過90%的運輸能源來自精煉產品，另外5%來自再生能源，而且你們知道我們也分銷再生能源。

However, over the last 5-plus years, energy transition news in dominating the headlines, making it sound like consumers will be driving EVs all over the place within a decade. And we all know that any attempt to do any major foundational change takes decades and decades.

然而，在過去 5 年多的時間裡，能源轉型新聞佔據了頭條新聞，聽起來消費者將在十年內到處駕駛電動車。我們都知道，任何重大的基礎性變革的嘗試都要花費數十年的時間。

And also the pendulum of policy direction can change dramatically. Even recent examples really highlights this. There are policy discussions right now around the elimination kind of EV subsidies and also around rolling back CAFE standards. With all that said, I strongly believe that refined products will continue to fuel the U.S. economy for decades and decades to come.

而且政策方向的鐘擺也會發生巨大變化。甚至最近的例子也確實凸顯了這一點。目前正在就取消電動車補貼以及降低 CAFE 標準進行政策討論。儘管如此，我堅信精煉產品將在未來幾十年繼續推動美國經濟。

And for SUN specifically, we're positioned as well as anybody to capitalize on it.

就 SUN 而言，我們和其他人一樣，都能夠利用它。

And then just on the Pipeline segment, would you be able to provide some more details on the volume cadence, the uplift that we saw recently, was that primarily trip related? And then just the related EBITDA step up? And how should we think about forecasting this segment on a go-forward basis?

然後就在管道部分，您能否提供一些關於產量節奏的更多細節，我們最近看到的提升，這主要與行程有關嗎？然後相關的 EBITDA 就會上升嗎？那我們該如何考慮未來預測這一領域呢？

Yes, you bet Theresa. This is Karl again. Yes, our fourth quarter performance in the Pipeline Systems segment was strong and really, I think, highlighted what that segment can do when volumes are higher. We added some additional help from MVCs in the quarter on the EBITDA basis. I think there are a couple of contributions to that.

是的，你猜對了，特蕾莎。我又是卡爾。是的，我們管道系統部門第四季的業績表現強勁，我認為這確實凸顯了該部門在產量較高時所能發揮的作用。我們在本季在 EBITDA 基礎上增加了一些來自 MVC 的額外幫助。我認為這有幾個原因。

Our Permian JV, you already saw some sequential growth from third quarter to fourth quarter. And then on the overall volumes, which you referenced, I think the absence of any kind of major downtime of refineries that feed our pipeline systems really contributed to step up in Q4 versus Q3. And then in addition, a few of our Pipeline Systems are really tied to agricultural markets, and so you had some seasonal strength in the fourth quarter. The only other comment on forecasting that, I think similar to Austin's comments earlier on Fuel Distribution, we don't take any of our segments and say, hey, we're going to take a quarterly result and multiply it by 4, and that's what our annual result will be. I think we look at all of them over a 12-month rolling basis because there are going to be puts and takes, different contracts with MVCs or different seasonal demand or there's always going to be some downtime on refineries, especially on these inland systems that feed our pipeline systems.

我們的 Permian JV 從第三季到第四季已經出現了連續成長。然後就您提到的總量而言，我認為，為我們的管道系統提供原料的煉油廠沒有出現任何大規模停機，這確實促使第四季度的產量相對於第三季度有所上升。此外，我們的一些管道系統確實與農業市場息息相關，因此第四季度有一定的季節性優勢。關於預測的唯一其他評論，我認為與奧斯汀之前對燃料分配的評論類似，我們不會拿出任何一個部門，然後說，嘿，我們要把季度結果乘以 4，這就是我們的年度結果。我認為我們會以 12 個月的滾動基礎來看待所有這些情況，因為其中會存在賣出和賣出、與 MVC 簽訂的不同合約或不同的季節性需求，或者煉油廠總會有一些停機時間，尤其是為我們的管道系統提供動力的這些內陸系統。

But we now have 8 months under our belt of operating in that segment and we like the asset base, we think it's going to be a strong contributor going forward.

但我們現在已經在該領域運作了 8 個月，我們喜歡資產基礎，我們認為它將在未來發揮強大的貢獻作用。

Spiro Dounis, Citi.

花旗銀行的 Spiro Dounis。

I wanted to go back to the distribution quickly and Joe, picked up on some of your comments around at least 5% growth, that at least component is a slight change from some of the language in December. And so just curious kind of what's changed since then? And what's the mechanism to accelerate that growth above 5%?

我想快速回到分佈問題，喬，我了解到你關於至少 5% 增長的一些評論，至少這個部分與 12 月份的一些語言相比略有變化。所以我很好奇從那時起發生了什麼變化？那麼，推動這項成長達到5%以上的機制是什麼呢？

Hey, Spiro. It's Joe. I'll repeat what I say constantly. One of our top capital allocation priorities is to maintain a stable and growing distribution. And in my prepared remarks, I talked more about DCF per common unit.

嘿，斯皮羅。是喬。我會不斷重複我說過的話。我們的首要資本配置重點之一是保持穩定且不斷成長的分配。在我準備好的發言中，我更多地談論了每普通單位的直流現金流折現法 (DCF)。

That's really one of the foundations of why we have so much confidence. We just delivered, like I said, our 8th consecutive years of growing DCF per common unit. And more importantly, we expect that trend to continue. So really us stating, stepping up from 2%, 4% to 5% and putting a lease on there is really just a reinforcement of the comps we have in our business that our fundamentals are looking good, our ability to accretively grow while still managing the balance sheet, we feel confident. We gave guidance in December for 2025.

這確實是我們如此充滿信心的基礎之一。正如我所說的，我們剛剛實現了連續第八年每普通單位直流現金流的成長。更重要的是，我們預計這一趨勢將會持續下去。因此，我們實際上表示，從 2%、4% 提高到 5%，並在此基礎上進行租賃，這實際上只是對我們業務的補充，表明我們的基本面看起來良好，我們在管理資產負債表的同時有能力實現增長，我們感到自信。我們在 12 月給了 2025 年的指導。

Fast forward to February right now, even with all the questions around tariffs and other things, we feel just as confident or more confident that we're going to deliver in '25.

現在快進到二月，儘管還有許多有關關稅和其他問題的問題，但我們仍然有信心，甚至更有信心，我們將在2025年實現目標。

So I think the way you should probably take this whole leases, 5% is the floor for 2025. And we're -- and the takeaway should be, not just for 2025, at least, I think you should take away that this is a multiyear distribution increase that we would start administering on a quarterly basis.

因此，我認為您應該按照整個租約的比例來計算，5% 是 2025 年的底線。而且我們 — — 而且重點應該是，不只是針對 2025 年，至少我認為您應該明白，這是一項多年的分配增長，我們將開始按季度管理。

Got it. Got it. Helpful color on that. Second one, maybe just going to a bit of a cleanup item here. I think first quarter is typically when we see the 7-Eleven makeup payment has been a feature over the last few years.

知道了。知道了。對此很有幫助的顏色。第二個，也許只是在這裡進行一點清理工作。我認為第一季通常是 7-Eleven 補繳費用成為過去幾年特色的時候。

I know you don't explicitly guide to it. Maybe just help us understand to what degree that could impact 1Q?

我知道您沒有明確指導這一點。也許只是幫助我們了解這會在多大程度上影響第一季？

Yes. This is Austin. It's trending a little higher than last year, and it's going to be approaching approximately $30 million.

是的。這是奧斯汀。這一數字比去年略有上升，預計將達到 3,000 萬美元左右。

(Operator Instructions) Jeremy Tonet, JPMorgan.

（操作員指令）摩根大通的傑里米·托內特 (Jeremy Tonet)。

This is Noah Katz on for Jeremy. First, I wanted to touch on any future accretive M&A going forward. I know most recently, you guys completed the acquisition of the Refined Products Terminal in Portland, Maine, but you've spoken about opportunities in both Europe and the Caribbean. What does this opportunity set look like? And what is the potential size of these opportunities?

這是諾亞卡茲 (Noah Katz) 為傑里米 (Jeremy) 主持的節目。首先，我想談談未來的增值型併購。我知道最近你們完成了對緬因州波特蘭成品油碼頭的收購，但你們談到了歐洲和加勒比地區的機會。這個機會集是什麼樣的？這些機會的潛在規模有多大？

Yes, Noah, this is Karl. As you mentioned, a couple of our recent deals were in Europe earlier this year, then in the Caribbean a little over a year ago. And I think both of those areas grapes are interesting to us but here's how we think about them and we use similar criteria that we use or we have used here in the United States. Whether a target has stable cash flows, whether it has synergy opportunities, whether it has potential for growth and ultimately the valuation that we paid to acquire the assets. And both the Peerless deal in Puerto Rico and then the Zenith deal that we did in Europe last year met those criteria.

是的，諾亞，這是卡爾。正如您所提到的，我們最近的幾筆交易是在今年早些時候在歐洲達成的，然後是一年多前在加勒比地區達成的。我認為這兩個地區的葡萄對我們來說都很感興趣，但我們對它們的看法是這樣的，我們使用的標準與我們在美國使用過的標準類似。目標是否具有穩定的現金流，是否具有協同機會，是否具有成長潛力，以及最終我們為收購資產所支付的估值。我們去年在波多黎各完成的 Peerless 交易和在歐洲完成的 Zenith 交易都符合這些標準。

Now whenever you take a step into a new geography like that, the synergy potential is a little smaller just because you don't have density in those markets. As we look for future growth, that only increases our possibility for synergies. And those are both areas that we're interested in. And just to give you a flavor of what we've done, the Peerless deal that we did wasn't very big in the scheme of things of our whole company, but already in about 1.5 years, we've been able to double or I guess, a little over 2 years, we've been able to double the EBITDA that we acquired. And so we think there's opportunities both in Europe and in the Caribbean.

現在，每當你進入這樣的新地區時，協同效應的潛力就會小一些，因為你在那些市場中沒有密度。當我們展望未來成長時，這只會增加我們實現協同效應的可能性。這些都是我們感興趣的領域。只是為了讓您了解我們所做的事情，我們所做的 Peerless 交易在我們整個公司的計劃中並不是很大，但在大約 1.5 年的時間裡，我們已經能夠將收購的 EBITDA 翻一番，或者我猜，兩年多一點的時間裡，我們已經能夠將收購的 EBITDA 翻一番。因此我們認為歐洲和加勒比地區都有機會。

One more comment on Europe. There might even be a parallel with California, where at least in the United States, it's one of the most stringent low-carbon fuel environments but that also comes with a difficult season building and expanding. And as you look in California right now, our assets that we bought with NuStar, those are some of the most highly profitable and highly valuable assets that we have in our network. And so we think that same possibility exists as we build our terminal network in Europe.

關於歐洲還有一則評論。甚至可能與加州相似，至少在美國，它是最嚴格的低碳燃料環境之一，但在建設和擴張期間也面臨困難。正如您現在在加州所看到的，我們與 NuStar 購買的資產是我們網路中利潤最高、價值最高的資產。因此我們認為，當我們在歐洲建立終端網路時也存在著同樣的可能性。

And as a follow-up, can you provide any update on -- or incremental details on the crude and produced water JV with ET? Do you guys have any updated thoughts on EBITDA contribution or impact to results?

作為後續問題，您能否提供有關與 ET 的原油和采出水合資企業的任何最新消息或詳細資訊？你們對 EBITDA 貢獻或對結果的影響有什麼最新的想法嗎？

Yes. I think I mentioned a couple of comments in my prepared remarks but I mean the bottom line is we're super happy with it. I mean, we've already seen some sequential growth from fourth quarter to third quarter. And the exciting thing is all the integration activities between the 2 systems aren't even complete, they're in progress. But I'd expect as we go into 2025, the value that's unlocked by combining those 2 systems will become more apparent.

是的。我想我在準備好的發言中提到了一些評論，但我的意思是，最重要的是我們對此感到非常高興。我的意思是，我們已經看到從第四季到第三季的連續成長。令人興奮的是，兩個系統之間的所有整合活動都尚未完成，而是正在進行中。但我預計，隨著我們進入 2025 年，結合這兩個系統所釋放的價值將變得更加明顯。

And then it just provides a bigger platform for growth. So we're excited as we look to '25 and beyond.

這為成長提供了更大的平台。因此，我們對 25 年及以後的前景充滿期待。

There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the floor back to Scott Grischow for closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。我想請史考特·格里肖作最後發言。

Thanks for joining us on the call today. As we said, there are a lot of great things to look forward to in 2025 for Sunoco. So please feel free to reach out if you have any questions. Thanks for tuning in and I always appreciate your support.

感謝您今天的電話會議。正如我們所說，2025 年對於 Sunoco 來說有很多值得期待的偉大事情。如果您有任何疑問，請隨時與我們聯繫。感謝您的收看，我始終感謝您的支持。

This does conclude today's teleconference. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines at this time.

今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開您的線路了。