Suncor Energy Inc (Canada) (SU) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Suncor Energy first-quarter 2026 financial results call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

各位早安，感謝您耐心等候。歡迎參加森科能源（Suncor Energy）2026 年第一季財務業績電話會議。（接線員指示）請注意，今天的會議將被錄音。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker, Suncor Energy's Senior Vice President of External Affairs, Mr. Adam Albeldawi. Please go ahead.

現在我想把會議交給今天的講者——森科能源對外事務資深副總裁 Adam Albeldawi 先生。請開始。

Thank you, operator, and good morning. Welcome to Suncor Energy's first-quarter earnings call.

謝謝接線員，各位早安。歡迎參加森科能源第一季財報電話會議。

Please note that today's comments contain forward-looking information. Actual results may differ materially from the expected results because of the various risk factors and assumptions that are described in our first-quarter earnings release, as well as in our current Annual Information Form, both of which are available on SEDAR+, EDGAR, and our website, suncor.com.

請注意，今天的發言包含前瞻性資訊。由於我們第一季財報新聞稿以及我們現行的年度資訊表（Annual Information Form）中所述的各項風險因素與假設，實際結果可能與預期結果有重大差異；上述文件均可於 SEDAR+、EDGAR 以及我們的網站 suncor.com 查閱。

Certain financial measures referred to in these comments are not prescribed by Canadian generally accepted accounting principles. For a description of these financial measures, please see our first-quarter earnings release.

本次發言中提及的部分財務衡量指標並非加拿大一般公認會計原則所規範。關於這些財務衡量指標的說明，請參閱我們第一季財報新聞稿。

We will start with comments from Rich Kruger, President and Chief Executive Officer; followed by Troy Little, Suncor's Chief Financial Officer. Also on the call are Peter Zebedee, Executive Vice President, Upstream; Dave Oldreive, Executive Vice President, Downstream; and Shelley Powell, Senior Vice President, Operational Improvement and Support Services. Following the formal remarks, we'll open the call up to questions.

我們將先由總裁兼執行長 Rich Kruger 發表談話；接著由森科能源財務長 Troy Little 發言。同時在線的還有：上游業務執行副總裁 Peter Zebedee、下游業務執行副總裁 Dave Oldreive，以及營運改善與支援服務資深副總裁 Shelley Powell。正式發言結束後，我們將開放提問。

Now, I'll hand it over to Rich to share his comments.

現在我把時間交給 Rich，請他分享他的看法。

Thanks, Adam.

謝謝你，Adam。

Our first quarter was about maintaining momentum following a very strong 2025, and that is exactly what we did. Troy will cover financial performance, and I will focus on what we can control, operational performance, starting with a quick comment on safety, our highest priority. I'm pleased to report the first quarter represented best-ever performance in process safety as our teams navigated the often harsh conditions of a Canadian winter.

我們第一季的重點，是在 2025 年非常強勁的表現之後持續維持動能，而我們確實做到了。Troy 會說明財務表現；我將聚焦在我們可控的部分——營運表現，並先簡短談談安全，這是我們的最高優先事項。我很高興報告，第一季在製程安全方面創下歷史最佳表現，因為我們的團隊在加拿大冬季往往嚴苛的環境下仍能順利運作。

Moving on. Upstream production, 875,000 barrels a day, our highest first quarter ever and our second highest quarter overall on record, only exceeded by the fourth quarter of last year; 22,000 barrels a day higher than our previous best first quarter, which was last year, achieved with Fort Hills at a record 187,000 barrels a day, higher than the quarter a year ago. E&P at 76,000 barrels a day was 14,000 barrels a day higher year on year and our highest quarter since our North Sea asset sale in 2022. Lastly, Firebag, our large high-value in situ continued near record rates at 247,000 barrels a day.

接下來。上游產量為每日 87.5 萬桶，為我們歷來最高的第一季表現，也是整體歷史第二高的季度紀錄，僅次於去年第四季；較我們先前最佳第一季（即去年）高出每日 2.2 萬桶。其中 Fort Hills 以每日 18.7 萬桶創下紀錄，高於一年前同季。勘探與生產（E&P）為每日 7.6 萬桶，年增每日 1.4 萬桶，並為 2022 年出售北海資產以來的最高季度。最後，Firebag——我們大型高價值的原地開採（in situ）資產——持續接近紀錄水準，達每日 24.7 萬桶。

Despite these results, it could have been better. We were negatively impacted by 14,000 to 15,000 barrels a day due to a natural gas curtailment from a third-party unplanned outage. Fortunately, the issue was resolved with production restored by the end of the quarter.

儘管有這些成果，其實還可以更好。我們受到第三方非計畫性停機所導致的天然氣限供影響，產量減少約每日 1.4 萬至 1.5 萬桶。所幸問題已解決，並在季末前恢復生產。

Upgrader utilization, 96%, here again, good, but it could have been better. An unplanned decoke of Syncrude's 8-3 coker following the discovery of cracked valves on the reactor with temperatures approaching minus 40 degrees C. Out of an abundance of caution, we shut down the unit, completed repairs, and had it back online in March.

升級廠利用率為 96%，同樣表現不錯，但仍有提升空間。由於在接近零下 40°C 的低溫下，發現反應器上的閥門出現裂紋，Syncrude 的 8-3 延遲焦化裝置（coker）進行了一次非計畫性除焦（decoke）。出於審慎考量，我們關停該裝置、完成修復，並於 3 月恢復上線。

Reflecting back over the last three years, first-quarter production is up 133,000 barrels a day, no costly acquisitions, no major new start-ups, simply performance. Refining throughput, 498,000 barrels a day in the quarter, again, our highest first quarter ever and our second highest quarter overall, only exceeded by the fourth quarter of last year, 15,000 barrels a day higher than our previous best first quarter, which was in 2025.

回顧過去三年，第一季產量增加了每日 13.3 萬桶，沒有昂貴的併購、沒有重大新投產項目，純粹靠表現。煉油加工量本季為每日 49.8 萬桶，同樣創下歷來最高第一季紀錄，也是整體歷史第二高季度，僅次於去年第四季；較我們先前最佳第一季（2025 年）高出每日 1.5 萬桶。

All four refineries exceeded last year's quarterly throughput. Edmonton, our number one moneymaker, maximized distillate and achieved best-ever throughput of 160,000 barrels a day. And Montreal introduced much-needed jet fuel into the market and also achieved a best-ever quarter at 155,000 barrels a day.

四座煉油廠的季度加工量均高於去年。Edmonton——我們最主要的獲利來源——將中間餾分油（distillate）產出最大化，並以每日 16 萬桶創下歷史最佳加工量。Montreal 則為市場提供了急需的航空燃油，同時也以每日 15.5 萬桶創下歷史最佳季度表現。

Refining utilization, 107% on our previous 466,000 barrel a day capacity or 97% on our new 10% higher re-rated capacity of 511,000 barrels a day as communicated at our recent I-Day. Excluding our Commerce City refinery, which undertook its spring turnaround, our network averaged 100% on the higher re-rated capacity, led by Edmonton at 101% of its new capacity.

煉油利用率：以先前每日 46.6 萬桶的產能計算為 107%；或以我們在近期 I-Day 所溝通、上調 10% 後的新核定產能每日 51.1 萬桶計算為 97%。若排除進行春季歲修的 Commerce City 煉油廠，我們的煉油網路在較高的新核定產能基礎上平均達到 100%，其中 Edmonton 以其新產能的 101% 領先。

Over the last three years, first-quarter throughput is up 130,000 barrels a day, no costly acquisitions, no expensive new projects, performance.

過去三年，第一季加工量增加了每日 13 萬桶，沒有昂貴的併購、沒有高成本的新專案，靠的是表現。

Product sales, 681,000 barrels a day, our highest order of any quarter ever, 34,000 barrels a day higher than our previous best, the third quarter of 2025, and 76,000 barrels a day higher than our previous best first quarter, which was last year. Achieved through a strategic shift starting in the second half of 2023. Previously, we were value over volume. Now, we're value and volume, challenging ourselves to not only place more total barrels into the market, but also place more barrels in the highest value change within the market.

產品銷售量為每日 68.1 萬桶，創下我們歷來任何季度的最高紀錄，較先前最佳（2025 年第三季）高出每日 3.4 萬桶，也較先前最佳第一季（去年）高出每日 7.6 萬桶。這是自 2023 年下半年開始的策略轉向所達成。過去我們重視價值勝於量；現在我們同時追求價值與量，要求自己不僅要把更多總桶數投放市場，也要把更多桶數投放到市場中價值最高的環節。

To illustrate, Petro-Canada retail volumes, Canada's number one brand, were up 9% year on year. After never achieving 600,000 barrels a day sales in any quarter, we've now exceeded 600,000 seven quarters in a row. Over the last three years, first-quarter product sales are up 166,000 barrels a day or 32%, no costly acquisitions, no expensive new projects, again, performance.

舉例來說，Petro-Canada 零售銷量（加拿大第一品牌）年增 9%。過去我們從未在任何季度達到每日 60 萬桶的銷售量，如今已連續 7 個季度超過 60 萬桶。過去三年，第一季產品銷售量增加了每日 16.6 萬桶或 32%，沒有昂貴的併購、沒有高成本的新專案，再次證明是表現所致。

So how are we continuing to establish record results period after period? Through crystal clear priorities, ambitious daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly performance targets, collaboration and teamwork, applying best practices, focusing on value, and by recognizing and rewarding our teams when they deliver. Our continuous improvement is not limited to a select area or two. It's across the board, systematically raising the bar, delivering higher, more reliable, more ratable operational performance and, with that, higher, more reliable, more ratable cash flow.

那麼，我們如何能一季接一季地持續創下紀錄？靠的是極其清晰的優先事項、具企圖心的每日／每週／每月／每季績效目標、協作與團隊合作、導入最佳實務、聚焦價值，以及在團隊達成成果時予以肯定與獎勵。我們的持續改善不僅限於一兩個領域，而是全面推進、系統性地拉高標準，帶來更高、更可靠、更可重複的營運表現，並因此帶來更高、更可靠、更可重複的現金流。

I'll share an example, a recent example of our teams adding value. We've described how our Fort Hills plant has capacity above its nameplate with stream day capacity of about 220,000 barrels a day versus an original design basis of 194,000 barrels a day. During our recent I-Day, we detailed how we will monetize this capacity over time, increasing annual production from 175,000 barrels a day in 2025 to 200,000 in 2028.

我分享一個近期團隊創造價值的例子。我們曾說明 Fort Hills 工廠的產能高於名目產能，其「stream day」產能約為每日 22 萬桶，而原始設計基準為每日 19.4 萬桶。在近期 I-Day 上，我們也詳述將如何隨時間將這些產能變現，讓年產量從 2025 年的每日 17.5 萬桶提升至 2028 年的每日 20 萬桶。

However, for our teams, that timing wasn't good enough. As a result, in late April, we negotiated a commercial agreement with Syncrude's owners, whereby Fort Hills purchases ore from Syncrude's Aurora mine and processes it at spare Fort Hills plant capacity. Everybody wins: Fort Hills, Syncrude, the province of Alberta through royalties.

然而，對我們的團隊而言，這樣的時程還不夠快。因此在 4 月下旬，我們與 Syncrude 的業主協商達成一項商業協議：由 Fort Hills 向 Syncrude 的 Aurora 礦場購買礦石，並利用 Fort Hills 工廠的閒置產能進行處理。各方皆贏：Fort Hills、Syncrude，以及透過權利金受益的亞伯達省。

And with Suncor on both sides of the deal, we win twice; incremental volumes, incremental value in today's price environment. We moved the first load of ore literally before the ink was dry on April 29, an example of today's Suncor, operationally excellent and commercially opportunistic.

而且森科在交易兩端都有參與，我們等於贏兩次：在當前價格環境下帶來增量產量與增量價值。我們在 4 月 29 日合約墨跡未乾前就已實際運送第一車礦石，這正是今日森科的寫照——營運卓越、商業上善於把握機會。

The non-operational highlight of 1Q was on March 31, our I-Day in Toronto, with the agenda as follows. First, we talked about today's Suncor, how the company has been rebuilt to compete and win, with superior performance and safety, reliability, cost management, and volumes, and the delivery of our 2024 I-Day commitments in two years versus a plan of three: 114,000 barrels a day of upstream production growth over those two years and a 10% higher refining capacity, $10 a barrel reduction in our corporate breakeven, and more than $3.3 billion per year in incremental free funds flow.

第一季在非營運面的亮點，是 3 月 31 日我們在多倫多舉辦的 I-Day，議程如下。首先，我們談到今日的森科：公司如何被重建以競爭並取勝，憑藉更優異的績效與安全、可靠性、成本管理與產量，以及在兩年內完成我們 2024 年 I-Day 的承諾（原計畫為三年）：這兩年間上游產量成長每日 11.4 萬桶、煉油產能提高 10%、公司損益兩平點每桶降低 10 美元，以及每年增加超過 33 億美元的自由資金流。

The day continued with the theme of we're not done yet, outlining an ambitious set of new commitments over the next three years: another 100,000 barrels a day of upstream production growth, a further $5-a-barrel reduction in enterprise breakeven, and an additional $2 billion a year in free funds flow.

當天的主題延續著「我們還沒結束」，並勾勒出未來三年一系列雄心勃勃的新承諾：上游產量成長再增加每日10萬桶、企業損益兩平點再降低每桶5美元，以及每年額外增加20億美元的自由資金流。

Then, the long-anticipated topic of our long-term Oil Sands outlook, where we detailed our large, long-life, high-quality reserves and resource base, 2P reserves of 7 billion barrels, the longevity with a 25-year reserve life, contingent resources of 30 billion barrels, literally a century of development opportunities, and 11 billion barrels or 60% higher than our last assessment a decade ago, contained within 22 billion barrels of high-quality in situ adjacent to existing assets, commercial with today's technology and expected future prices, with the entire assessment validated by third-party independent experts.

接著是外界期待已久的長期油砂展望議題。我們詳細說明了我們龐大、壽命長且高品質的儲量與資源基礎：2P儲量達70億桶、儲量壽命25年；或有資源300億桶，幾乎是百年的開發機會；以及110億桶（較我們十年前上一次評估高出60%），其中包含於220億桶高品質原地（in situ）資源之中，且與既有資產相鄰；在今日技術與預期未來價格下具商業可行性；整體評估並已由第三方獨立專家驗證。

Development plans, we discuss standardized modules, design, one, build, many, focused in the resource-rich corridor south of Firebag and east of our base plant, all 100% Suncor-owned with regulatory approvals in place. We highlighted extensive regional synergies, synergies unique to Suncor, providing lower capital costs well below greenfield development.

在開發計畫方面，我們討論了標準化模組與設計——「設計一次、建造多次」——聚焦於Firebag以南、以及我們基礎廠區以東的資源富集走廊；全部為Suncor 100%持有，且相關監管核准已到位。我們也強調了廣泛的區域協同效益，以及Suncor獨有的協同效益，使資本成本顯著低於綠地開發。

Sequence to maximize efficiency and capture lessons learned, a 400,000 barrels a day portfolio at an average capital cost of about $30,000 per flowing barrel. But the best part, we described how all barrels are not created equal, quantifying the structural shift overtime from mining barrels to in situ with cash flow per barrel of in situ roughly two times mining's current level, a resulting outlook of long-term value growth with moderate volume growth.

透過排序以最大化效率並汲取經驗教訓，形成一個每日40萬桶的投資組合，平均資本成本約為每流動桶3萬美元。但最精彩的是，我們說明並非所有桶油都一樣，量化了隨時間推移從礦採（mining）轉向原地（in situ）的結構性變化：原地每桶現金流約為目前礦採的兩倍，因而帶來在溫和產量成長下、長期價值成長的展望。

Finally, we detailed what's in it for our shareholders: double-digit annual growth rates in free funds flow and free funds flow per share, increasing cash returns via dividend growth and ratable buybacks, and importantly, achievable in a $65-a-barrel WTI environment with upside if prices are higher.

最後，我們闡述這對股東有何好處：自由資金流與每股自由資金流的年複合成長率達雙位數；透過股利成長與等比例回購提高現金回饋；更重要的是，在WTI每桶65美元的環境下即可達成，若油價更高則還有上行空間。

Bottom line, we have a clear, definitive plan to compete and win short term and long term, plan built around what we can control and what we can confidently execute, and a plan coupled with high performance that we believe offers a compelling value proposition, ensuring Suncor will stand on the podium in any and all business environments, delivering reliable, superior shareholder value, a must-own oil and gas stock, or a foundational building block for any investment portfolio.

總結來說，我們有一套清晰且明確的計畫，能在短期與長期競爭並勝出；該計畫建立在我們可控、且能有把握執行的事項之上，並結合高績效表現，我們相信這提供了極具吸引力的價值主張，確保Suncor在任何商業環境中都能站上頒獎台，為股東帶來可靠且優於同業的價值——成為必持有的油氣股票，或任何投資組合的基礎核心配置。

With that, I'll turn it over to Troy.

接下來，我把時間交給Troy。

Thanks, Rich.

謝謝，Rich。

We ended the first quarter in a very different place than where we started, with March's average WTI price being 50% higher than January. For Suncor, this is exactly the environment we're built for. Our integrated model was constructed to capture opportunity when others cannot.

第一季結束時，我們所處的位置與一開始截然不同，3月WTI平均價格比1月高出50%。對Suncor而言，這正是我們為之打造的環境。我們的一體化模式旨在於他人無法把握時捕捉機會。

Our Q1 financial results reflect that: $4 billion in adjusted funds from operations of $1 billion, or 32% year over year; $2.9 billion in free funds flow, up $1 billion or 53% year over year; and we returned $1.5 billion to shareholders, $825 million in buybacks and $712 million in dividends. And that doesn't reflect the increase in our buyback on April 1 to $350 million per month, the second increase since last November.

我們第一季的財務結果反映了這一點：經調整營運資金流（adjusted funds from operations）40億美元，年增10億美元或32%；自由資金流29億美元，年增10億美元或53%；我們向股東回饋15億美元，其中回購8.25億美元、股利7.12億美元。而這還未反映我們在4月1日將回購提高至每月3.5億美元——這是自去年11月以來的第二次上調。

Rather than walking through our quarterly report, I will focus on a few specific items. Let me start with downstream margin capture, an area where our business results are differentiated this quarter. Our 99% capture will likely be a surprise to many in a rise and crack environment, where it's often difficult to fully capture increases in real time because of lags in market pricing response.

我不逐一走過季度報告，而是聚焦幾個特定項目。先從下游利差捕捉談起，這是本季我們業績表現具差異化的領域。在上漲與裂解價差（rise and crack）環境中，我們達到99%的捕捉率，對許多人而言可能出乎意料；因為市場定價反應存在滯後，往往難以及時完整反映利差上升。

The strong margin capture this quarter is a testament to the great work by our sales and marketing and supply and trading teams who took advantage of market dislocations in real time, in particular in export markets. In March, for instance, we were able to capitalize on our existing trading relationships in 45 countries to send diesel and jet to places like the Philippines and Puerto Rico, both at significant premiums to market pricing. We have spent years building up the logistics and commercial capabilities to act on opportunities just like these, and that investment paid off meaningfully this past quarter.

本季強勁的利差捕捉，證明了我們銷售與行銷、以及供應與交易團隊的出色工作，他們即時把握市場錯位，尤其是在出口市場。例如在3月，我們運用既有的45個國家交易關係，將柴油與航煤運往菲律賓與波多黎各等地，且價格相對市場報價有顯著溢價。我們多年來持續建構物流與商業能力，以便抓住這類機會，而這些投資在本季帶來了實質回報。

Moving to our balance sheet for a moment. As you would have seen, Q1 included a working capital build of $1.7 billion, almost all of which was directly related to the strong positive move upwards in the business environment in March. At the end of Q1, our accounts receivable and inventory balances stored significant amounts of cash from higher prices, a lot of which has already been released to us in the past two weeks through the normal industry settlement cycle.

接著簡要談一下資產負債表。如各位所見，第一季包含17億美元的營運資金增加，幾乎全部都直接與3月商業環境強勁上行有關。第一季末，我們的應收帳款與存貨餘額因價格上漲而累積了大量現金，其中相當一部分已在過去兩週透過產業正常結算週期釋放回到我們手上。

Recall that working capital is a tool that Suncor uses to drive returns that are downstream. Sufficient inventories in the right place and at the right time can provide opportunities for our supply and trading colleagues to take advantage of margin opportunities that others cannot.

請記得，營運資金是Suncor用來推動下游報酬的工具。在正確的地點、正確的時間持有足夠庫存，能讓我們的供應與交易同仁把握其他人無法掌握的利差機會。

So we manage our working capital very tightly, but with the view that we don't want to miss solid business opportunities. This working capital increase contributed to a temporary increase in our net debt of $500 million versus Q4 2025, despite much higher free funds flow, again, driven by the timing of the normal settlement cycle. We remain very pleased with the current state of our balance sheet, continuing to be significantly within our guardrail of 1 times net debt to cash flow at $50 per barrel WTI.

因此我們對營運資金管理非常嚴謹，但同時也不希望錯失穩健的商機。由於正常結算週期的時點因素，儘管自由資金流大幅提高，這次營運資金增加仍使我們的淨負債較2025年第四季暫時增加5億美元。我們對目前資產負債表狀況仍非常滿意，並持續顯著低於我們在WTI每桶50美元假設下「淨負債對現金流1倍」的護欄水準。

Turning to capital allocation. Let me be clear about how we think about returning cash to shareholders. We believe that a steady, growing base dividend plus consistent ratable buybacks provides long-term investors with a predictable framework they can count on through the cycle.

接著談資本配置。我想清楚說明我們如何看待向股東返還現金。我們相信，穩定且成長的基礎股利，加上持續、等比例的回購，能為長期投資人提供一個可在景氣循環中依循的可預期框架。

Supporting this ability to deliver consistent cash returns to shareholders is a world-scale, long-life, high-quality resource base with no expiration risk, an integrated model that delivers through all cycles, and a clear phased plan to develop our assets and grow value while maintaining capital discipline. The recent increase in our buybacks to $350 million per month wasn't a short-term reaction to recently improved market conditions. It reflected our confidence in the business plan that we put forward at our Investor Day.

支撐我們持續向股東提供一致現金回饋能力的，是世界級、壽命長、高品質且無到期風險的資源基礎；能穿越各種循環的一體化模式；以及清晰的分階段計畫，在維持資本紀律的同時開發資產並提升價值。近期將回購提高至每月3.5億美元，並非對市場條件短期改善的反應，而是反映我們對投資人日所提出商業計畫的信心。

Let me close with a discussion around profitability and long-term repeatable earnings power. You are all familiar with the reduction in our breakeven of the last two years of $10 per barrel. These reductions make Suncor highly resilient in lower commodity price environments.

最後我以獲利能力與長期可重複的盈餘動能作結。各位都熟悉我們在過去兩年將損益兩平點降低每桶10美元。這些改善使Suncor在較低商品價格環境中具高度韌性。

What is perhaps not as well understood is how the improvements we have already made have even more impact in a high commodity price environment. As an example, if we applied the business environment of 2022, when we last saw a strong commodity price environment, to an annualized Q1 2026, today's Suncor would generate the same AFFO or higher at oil prices that are over $15 per barrel lower than 2022, assuming all other pricing was consistent with that year.

或許較不為人所理解的是，我們已完成的改善在高商品價格環境下影響更大。舉例來說，若將我們上一次見到強勁商品價格環境的2022年商業環境，套用到2026年第一季的年化水準，在其他價格假設與當年一致的情況下，今日的Suncor在油價比2022年低超過每桶15美元時，仍可產生相同或更高的AFFO。

So we are not just well suited amongst our competitors in a lower commodity price scenario. We are also positioned to capture significant value at higher prices also. And this will only grow as we continue to improve further in the years ahead, in part driven by our structural move towards higher margin in-situ production.

因此，我們不僅在較低商品價格情境下相較同業更具優勢；在較高價格時，我們同樣具備捕捉顯著價值的定位。而隨著我們未來幾年持續改善，這種能力還會增強，其中一部分來自我們結構性轉向更高利差的原地（in situ）產量。

Bottom line, this quarter, again, demonstrates the strength of Suncor's uniquely integrated model, strong operating and financial performance, delivering reliable value to our shareholders.

總結來說，本季再次展現了Suncor獨特一體化模式的強大、以及強勁的營運與財務表現，為股東交付可靠價值。

With that, I will turn the call back over to Adam so that we can take some questions.

接下來我把電話會議交回給Adam，讓我們開始回答一些問題。

Thank you, Troy. I'll turn the call back to the operator to take some questions.

謝謝你，Troy。我把電話會議交回給接線員，開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Greg Pardy, RBC Capital Markets.

（接線員指示）Greg Pardy，RBC資本市場。

Yeah, thanks. Thanks. Good morning, and thanks for the rundown, as always. Rich and Troy, you've both delved into the downstream, how the dynamics are changing and how you're running that business. So the question is almost like twofold. One is, if it's 680,000 in the first quarter in terms of refined product sales, that certainly looks very conservative vis-a-vis what your annual guidance looks like.

好的，謝謝，謝謝。早安，也一如既往感謝你們的說明。Rich和Troy，你們都深入談到下游、其動態如何改變，以及你們如何經營這項業務。所以我的問題大概有兩個面向。第一個是，如果第一季成品油銷售量是68萬（桶/日），相較於你們的全年指引，看起來確實非常保守。

But perhaps more important questions are around what's going on in terms of maybe how much market scare are you capturing domestically, do you think? And then does the international hold that much more promise? I'm just trying to get a better understanding of what the dimensions of that refined product sale number could look like going forward.

但或許更重要的問題在於：就國內而言，你認為你們捕捉到的市場恐慌程度大概有多少？另外，國際市場是否更具潛力？我只是想更清楚了解，未來這個成品銷售數字的各個面向可能會呈現什麼樣貌。

Greg, I'll offer -- this is Rich. I'll give you a quick comment or two, and then I'll ask Dave to comment more fully. As we've evolved this kind of -- I refer to it as a strategic shift over the last few years, it's still a work in progress. We are continuing to find ways to add and create value.

Greg，我先說一下——我是 Rich。我先給你一兩個簡短的評論，然後我會請 Dave 更完整地補充。過去幾年我們逐步推進這種——我稱之為策略轉向——目前仍在進行中。我們持續在尋找增加並創造價值的方法。

And it's underpinned, obviously, by refining performance, but it further integrates into the distribution, logistics. At Investor Day, we talked about how a couple of years ago, we had reach into 20-some countries around the globe. Now, that's 45 countries. So this is a strategy that continues to develop and unfold.

而這當然是以煉油績效為基礎，但也進一步整合到配銷與物流。在投資人日我們提到，幾年前我們的觸角遍及全球二十幾個國家；現在已經是 45 個國家。因此，這是一個持續發展並逐步展開的策略。

And with it, you're seeing the higher sales volumes. Clearly, there were opportunities in the market that also created value for us to the point of, for example, we were able to buy competitors' volumes on the dock or at a tailgate and then turn around and, because of our unique capabilities, deliver it with material uplifts. So I think it's a little bit less of characterizing that outlook as conservative. And really, it's more about our teams continuing to aggressively pursue and capture value, and that is resulting in higher volumes.

隨之而來的是更高的銷售量。很明顯，市場上也出現了一些機會，為我們創造了價值；例如，我們能在碼頭或裝車點買下競爭對手的量，然後再利用我們獨特的能力把產品交付出去，並帶來顯著的價差提升。因此，我認為與其把這個展望形容為保守，不如說是我們的團隊持續積極追求並捕捉價值，而這也帶動了更高的銷售量。

Dave, any comments you'd add on to that? I know I gave a mouthful there.

Dave，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？我知道我剛剛講得有點多。

You had quite a bit of it. Greg, maybe I'll just comment on the sales numbers specifically. I think about the sales is where did the volume come from and where did it go? Because you've got to produce it to sell it, and then we have to find the right channels to sell it. So where did it come from in the first quarte, because we did hit a record plus throughput?

你確實講了不少。Greg，我可能就針對銷售數字本身做個評論。我看銷售時會想：量從哪裡來、又賣到哪裡去？因為你必須先把它生產出來才能賣，然後我們也得找到合適的通路去銷售。所以第一季的量從哪裡來？因為我們確實創下了吞吐量的新高。

Throughput was up versus first quarter prior year. That's pretty obvious. We also had some non-crude inputs, custom blends, particularly into our Edmonton refinery, which created more products for us to sell. We'll continue to do that going forward. So I think there's some good news on that.

吞吐量較去年第一季增加，這很明顯。我們也有一些非原油投入、客製化調和料，特別是進到我們的 Edmonton 煉油廠，這讓我們有更多產品可以銷售。我們未來也會持續這麼做。所以我認為這方面有一些好消息。

We drew some inventory, and that's really, as Troy talked about, we had a pretty unique market present itself in March and we took the opportunity to scale up our logistics systems on export to capture margins that were uniquely more profitable than Canadian alternatives. And that's kind of our commercial intensity, our ability to be flexible, and our superior trading skills allowed our team to do that.

我們也動用了部分庫存；正如 Troy 提到的，3 月市場出現了一個相當獨特的情況，我們把握機會擴大出口物流系統的規模，以捕捉相較於加拿大替代方案更具獲利性的利差。這反映了我們的商業強度、彈性，以及更優異的交易能力，讓團隊得以做到這點。

And just as an example, our Burrard, Vancouver, dock is where we do most of our West Coast diesel exports, and that's our most profitable logistics and lowest-cost logistics option for exports. We did 14 cargoes in the first quarter. That's compared to 28 cargoes in the full year of last year. So we've been able to scale that up to capture a pretty unique opportunity. I'd expect us, depending on where the market goes, to have that ability going forward.

舉例來說，我們在 Burrard（溫哥華）的碼頭是我們進行大部分西岸柴油出口的地方，這也是我們出口最有利潤、且成本最低的物流選項。第一季我們做了 14 船貨；相比之下，去年全年是 28 船。我們因此得以擴大規模，去捕捉一個相當獨特的機會。我預期未來視市場走勢而定，我們仍會具備這樣的能力。

Thanks, Dave.

謝謝你，Dave。

Yeah, that's terrific. Thanks very much for that. Maybe just to shift into the upstream. And Rich, I know there's a big focus, obviously, moving ahead in terms of the shift towards in-situ and the better netbacks and so on.

是的，這很棒。非常感謝你的說明。接著我想把話題轉到上游。Rich，我知道未來在轉向原地開採（in-situ）以及更好的淨回收（netbacks）等方面，顯然是很大的重點。

But if you come back to Fort Hills, you're through the remediation plan. I hear you in terms of what you're saying around increased volumes and higher plant utilization. But with the streamline move into the North Pit then, is there a unit cost reduction story that'll begin to take shape potentially in '27 and 28 beyond the volumetric numbers you're talking about simply with the plant?

但回到 Fort Hills，你們已經完成修復計畫。我理解你提到的增量與更高的廠房利用率。不過，隨著接下來精簡地轉進 North Pit，除了你所談到的單純由廠房帶來的量的提升之外，是否會在 2027、2028 年開始逐步形成一個單位成本下降的故事？

No doubt about it. Again, I'll have Peter comment a little bit more fully. If you dial the clock back, and I guess it was about two years ago now, when we had the three-year, we called it the recovery plan at Fort Hills, it had a premise of getting up to 175. But a change we made in that was not explicitly to the recovery plan years one through three, but it was years 4 through 44, where we said opening two pits in the north will make -- will create more value over the long term.

毫無疑問會。再一次，我會請 Peter 更完整地補充。如果把時間往回撥，大概是兩年前，我們在 Fort Hills 有一個三年期、我們稱之為復原計畫（recovery plan），其前提是把產量提升到 175。但我們做的一個改變並不是明確針對復原計畫的第一到第三年，而是針對第 4 年到第 44 年：我們說在北部開兩個礦坑，長期會創造更多價值。

And so what we shared with the market, there were some incremental capital costs as we bought some new equipment, trucks, and shovels. And then we said, we appreciate your patience because you won't see that bend in the unit operating costs until we put those two mines in play. So I think that outlook remains the same. It's just it was a bit deferred from what we would have earlier characterized in the recovery plan.

因此我們對市場分享的是：當我們購置一些新設備、卡車與挖掘機時，會有一些增量資本支出。然後我們也說，請大家耐心等待，因為要等到那兩個礦坑投入運作後，你們才會看到單位營運成本出現轉折下彎。我認為這個展望仍然相同；只是相較於我們在復原計畫中先前的描述，時間點稍微延後了。

Peter, though, you want to comment more generally about Fort Hills, your progress, priorities?

Peter，你要不要更概括地談談 Fort Hills 的進展與優先事項？

Yeah. I would say our short-term focus, Greg, is to fill out the Fort Hills plant through the use of these incremental volumes that we're getting from Syncrude Aurora that will also directionally support reducing unit costs, given the denominator is going to increase.

好。我會說，Greg，我們短期的重點是利用從 Syncrude Aurora 取得的這些增量，來把 Fort Hills 的廠房填滿；由於分母會增加，這也會在方向上支持降低單位成本。

Longer term, as you said, our focus is opening up North Pit 2. We expect the first or from North Pit 2 to come in the first quarter of 2027. And as that North Pit opens up and the mining volumes reduce due to reduced stripping, we do expect improvement in unit cost in that '27 and '28 timeframe.

長期來看，如你所說，我們的重點是開發 North Pit 2。我們預期 North Pit 2 的第一批礦石會在 2027 年第一季進來。隨著 North Pit 開啟、因剝離量降低而使採礦量下降，我們確實預期在 2027、2028 年這段期間單位成本會有所改善。

So Greg, between the two of us, that was a long answer to yes. We expect to be driving down unit costs as we put all the building blocks in place at Fort Hills.

所以 Greg，我們兩個合起來，這個很長的答案其實就是：是的。我們預期在 Fort Hills 把所有基礎建設拼圖到位的同時，會推動單位成本下降。

All right. Thank you very much.

好的。非常感謝。

Dennis Fong, CIBC.

Dennis Fong，CIBC。

Hi. Good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. The first one for me, Rich, is you've alluded in the past to the flexibility around your base plant upgraders as providing quote-unquote craft cocktails to some of your customers and differentiating your offerings versus other peers or competitors.

嗨，早安，謝謝讓我提問。我的第一個問題是給 Rich：你過去曾提到，你們基礎廠（base plant）升級設備（upgraders）的彈性，能為部分客戶提供所謂的「調酒式」產品（craft cocktails），並讓你們的產品相較其他同業或競爭對手更具差異化。

Can you talk, you and the team, about the opportunities this supports you in terms of improving profitability, especially in this obviously very tumultuous commodity price environment? And that's mostly from the upstream, but I also recognize that there's opportunities in the downstream as well.

你和團隊能否談談，這在提升獲利能力方面帶來哪些機會，尤其是在這個顯然非常動盪的大宗商品價格環境下？這主要是上游的部分，但我也理解下游同樣存在機會。

Thanks, Dennis. It's a good question in that because we actually benefited from that materially in the first quarter with the unplanned decoat at Syncrude and then being able to move product across to the base plant.

謝謝你，Dennis。這是個好問題，因為我們在第一季確實從中獲得了實質效益：Syncrude 發生非計畫性的脫焦（decoat），而我們仍能把產品轉移到基礎廠。

But Dave, I'd really want to even comment explicitly about our ability to continue to feed, for example, our Edmonton refinery with -- had a record refining result and yet it works off of -- its appetite is pretty heavy, synthetic crudes. And despite disruptions in our upstream, how we kept that thing full and that craft cocktail concept, how we're putting it in practice.

不過 Dave，我更希望你能明確談談：例如我們如何持續供料給 Edmonton 煉油廠——它創下了煉油的紀錄表現，但它的胃口很大程度依賴合成原油。在我們上游出現干擾的情況下，我們如何仍讓那座廠保持滿載，以及這個「調酒式」概念如何落地實行。

Yeah, absolutely. I think Edmonton is a great example. And I alluded to this in the last question around the non-crude feedstocks into Edmonton refinery. These are these craft cocktails that Rich likes to talk about.

好的，當然。我認為 Edmonton 是個很好的例子。我在上一題也提到 Edmonton 煉油廠的非原油進料。這些就是 Rich 喜歡談的那些「調酒式」產品。

Edmonton was a clear example of the value of our integration in the past quarter. We highlighted in Investor Day that we made some changes at Edmonton to improve diesel yields, small investment, $100,000 moves to add piping to modify gas oil hydrotreater, so we could pull diesel off the gas oil hydrotreater.

在上一季，Edmonton 清楚展現了我們整合能力的價值。我們在投資人日強調，我們在 Edmonton 做了一些改變以提升柴油收率：小額投資，只要 10 萬美元，增加一些管線、改造瓦斯油加氫精製裝置（gas oil hydrotreater），讓我們可以從該裝置切出柴油。

What that did, it gave us a 16,000 barrel a day diesel yield increase, but it also allowed us to have spare capacity in our gasoline-producing assets. With that, we were able to take these craft cocktails from the base plant, run those directly into the secondary units at Edmonton, and not only get the diesel yield up growth from the first part of that project, but we were able to incrementally run more rate at Edmonton of non-accrued inputs, these craft cocktails of about 9,000 barrels a day.

這麼做讓我們的柴油收率增加了每日 16,000 桶，同時也讓我們的汽油生產資產有了備用產能。藉此，我們能把這些來自基礎廠的「調酒式」產品直接送進 Edmonton 的二次加工單元，不僅因為專案第一部分而提升柴油收率，我們也能在 Edmonton 額外提高非原油投入——也就是這些「調酒式」產品——的處理量，大約每日 9,000 桶。

So 160 record rate at Edmonton, we actually were about 169 of inputs. And that allowed us to have great yields as well as improved volumes. So it's just a great example of Suncor integration coming together to improve not only reliability, volumes, as well as yields in our refinery suite.

所以在愛德蒙頓達到 160 的紀錄再評級，我們實際上大約做到 169 的進料。這讓我們不僅有很好的收率，也提升了產量。所以這正是一個很好的例子，展現 Suncor 的整合如何匯聚在一起，改善我們煉油資產組合的可靠性、產量以及收率。

One other comment I'd make too is much like the downstream, Dave, refinery by refinery and the re-rate we had last year, we've been working hard to determine what are the physical capabilities of our upgraders. And last year, we ended up at 99% for the year. And I'm smiling over at my partner over here, Peter, because if he'd have been 99.5% or higher, I would have said, okay, it's time to re-rate those beasts.

我還想補充一點：就像下游一樣，Dave，去年我們逐座煉廠去做再評級（re-rate），我們也一直努力釐清升級廠的實體能力到底到哪裡。去年我們全年最後做到 99%。我看著我旁邊的夥伴 Peter 在笑，因為如果他能做到 99.5% 或更高，我就會說，好吧，是時候把那些大家伙再評級了。

So even though we ended up 96% for the quarter overall, and we've described that as something that we left something on the table, we were disappointed in that. The base plant was well over 100%. And so we have capacity there. And the same philosophy we've applied to all of our facilities is determining that limit, what can we do to further extend that limit safely, reliably. We're doing the exact same thing across the upstream and seeing similar results.

所以即便我們整體這一季最後是 96%，而我們也形容那是「桌上還留了些東西」，我們對此感到失望。但基礎裝置其實遠超過 100%。因此我們是有產能空間的。我們套用到所有設施的同一套理念，就是找出那個極限：我們能做什麼，在安全、可靠的前提下把極限再往外推。我們在上游也做完全一樣的事，並看到類似的成果。

Great. Really appreciate that color and context from the entire team. My follow-up is on Fort Hills here, as you kind of answered my question about the -- my question on the upgrader throughput for the quarter. At Fort Hills, and appreciate the context around, we'll call it, regional integration with the proximity to Aurora North mine site. How does this opportunity set help maybe adjust mine progression, mine plan, and the ability to manage both, obviously, the higher fines content resource to the western edge, as well as the opportunities to, we'll call it, optimize and push beyond the 220,000 barrel-a-day productive capacity at the facility?

很好。非常感謝整個團隊提供這些細節與背景。我接著想問 Fort Hills。你其實已經回答了我關於本季升級廠處理量的問題。在 Fort Hills 這邊，也謝謝你提到我們姑且稱之為與 Aurora North 礦區鄰近所帶來的區域整合背景。這個機會組合如何幫助我們調整採礦推進、採礦計畫，以及同時管理——很明顯地——西側邊緣較高細料（fines）含量的資源；並且也把握機會去優化、甚至推升設施每日 220,000 桶的有效產能上限？

Yeah. Thanks, Dennis. And obviously, this gives the Fort Hills team and the Aurora team, frankly, more degrees of operating freedom in terms of blend management, as you said, managing out the right blends into the Fort Hills plant to optimize bitumen recovery.

是的。謝謝你，Dennis。很明顯地，這讓 Fort Hills 團隊以及坦白說 Aurora 團隊，在調和管理（blend management）上有更多操作自由度；如你所說，能把合適的調和料送進 Fort Hills 廠，以最佳化瀝青回收率。

I would say we are -- our mine plans for the development of the Fort Hills mine remain the same today. This is essentially a shorter term opportunity that we're taking to fill out the Fort Hills plant, and then we are going to transition to full Fort Hills volumes in the coming years. We will obviously look for opportunities to reduce operating costs, stripping volumes, et cetera, should those be warranted by the use of these incremental volumes. But for now, the Fort Hills mine plan remains as intended.

我會說——我們目前對 Fort Hills 礦區的開發採礦計畫仍維持不變。這基本上是一個較短期的機會，我們利用它把 Fort Hills 廠的產能填滿，接著在未來幾年我們會轉向完全以 Fort Hills 的產量為主。我們當然也會視情況尋找降低營運成本、剝離量（stripping volumes）等方面的機會，如果使用這些增量產量確實有其必要性。但就目前而言，Fort Hills 的採礦計畫仍按原先意圖進行。

I'll just add to that. The vast majority of our assets in the region are certainly operated and 100% owned. Syncrude is the exception in that. But how we look at it is we look at it as what's the economic maximization or optimum across it, and we try not to get fussed with that ownership. And then when we see an opportunity, we work it with the partners via a commercial solution.

我再補充一下。我們在該區域的大多數資產確實都是由我們營運且 100% 持有。Syncrude 是例外。但我們的看法是：我們看的是整體的經濟最大化或最佳化，而不會被持股結構搞得太糾結。當我們看到機會時，就會透過商業方案與合作夥伴一起推動。

And this ore transfer is an example of that, where there can be more value created by doing that than if we each just stuck with our own individual assets and kept them separately. And that mindset has been a huge part of our story over the last few years of optimizing Suncor, the whole, and not a series of individual assets.

這次的礦石轉運（ore transfer）就是一個例子：這樣做所創造的價值，會比我們各自只守著自己的單一資產、彼此分開運作更高。這種思維在過去幾年一直是我們故事的重要部分——我們優化的是整個 Suncor，而不是一系列各自獨立的資產。

Great. I appreciate that color. I'll turn it back.

很好。我很感謝這些補充。我把時間交回去。

Neil Mehta, Goldman Sachs.

Neil Mehta，高盛。

Yeah, thanks so much. Rich, one micro question and one macro question. So the micro question is, can we spend some time talking about your favorite child, Firebag? And specifically, what are the things that you're watching here over the course of this year to see if it stays in your good graces?

是的，非常感謝。Rich，我有一個微觀問題和一個宏觀問題。微觀問題是：我們能不能花點時間談談你最喜歡的孩子 Firebag？具體來說，今年你會觀察哪些事情，來判斷它是否仍能保持在你的「寵愛名單」上？

It is. It's got a place in my heart that lasts a long time, decades, I'm sure. Peter just literally got back from there yesterday. We're in the middle of our spring turnaround, and we've described that as -- that's a pretty big event for us this year. It's the biggest turnaround Firebag's had for a while. It's a key part of the volume story, and we're what, Peter, a few weeks in right now. And we never declare victory until the whistle blows, but things are going quite well.

沒錯。它在我心裡有個位置，會維持很久，幾十年吧，我想。Peter 昨天才剛從那裡回來。我們正在進行春季大修（turnaround），我們也說過——這對我們今年來說是個相當大的事件，是 Firebag 近年來最大的一次大修。它是產量故事中的關鍵一環，而我們現在進行到第幾週了，Peter？我們在哨聲響起前從不宣告勝利，但目前進展非常順利。

And that asset in particular, its size, its quality, the expertise we have on the technical and operational personnel, whether that's looking at improved drilling techniques, whether that's looking at expanded solvent applications, steam reliability, it's literally a playground of opportunities. And with the quality of the people we have and the focus they've been providing, we keep seeing ways to make it better.

而那個資產本身，無論是規模、品質，或是我們在技術與營運人員上的專業——不管是看改良鑽井技術、擴大溶劑應用、蒸汽可靠性——它簡直就是一個充滿機會的遊樂場。憑藉我們的人才品質以及他們投入的專注度，我們不斷看到讓它變得更好的方法。

In Investor Day, we talked about growth from some of the near-term priorities, infill drilling, the ultimate use of non-condensable natural gas. But it doesn't stop there. We're looking at what are the limiters in any particular piece of equipment or ongoing debottlenecking. And even though it was just literally a month ago or five weeks ago that we put out an Investor Day plan, that just is a point in time, and we're already looking at avenues to go above and beyond and add value.

在投資人日（Investor Day），我們談到一些近期優先事項帶來的成長：加密井（infill drilling）、最終使用不可凝結天然氣（non-condensable natural gas）。但不只如此。我們也在看每一個特定設備的限制因素，以及持續的去瓶頸（debottlenecking）。即便我們才在一個月前或五週前發布投資人日計畫，那也只是某個時間點的快照；我們已經在尋找能超越計畫、進一步創造價值的途徑。

And those are things we'll talk about over time, but I really love all my kids, just happen to love a few of them, maybe a little bit more at times. And Firebag's sitting there right on my knee, getting all my attention.

這些事情我們會隨時間再談。不過我真的愛我所有的孩子，只是有時候會特別偏愛其中幾個。而 Firebag 現在就坐在我膝上，得到我全部的關注。

Yeah, that's great. Peter, was there anything you wanted to add from your recent trip?

是的，很棒。Peter，你最近那趟行程有沒有什麼想補充的？

Well, yeah, sure. A couple of things. Neil, spent some time with the Firebag team yesterday. We're right in the midst of our spring turnaround, as Rich mentioned. It is our single biggest opportunity this year to deliver above our plans. The team is laser-focused on bringing that turnaround in on schedule, on budget, and it's going extremely well. So that's kind of job one at the moment.

嗯，有的，當然。Neil，我昨天和 Firebag 團隊花了一些時間。我們正如 Rich 提到的，正處於春季大修的正中間。這是我們今年最重要的單一機會，能讓成果超越我們的計畫。團隊高度聚焦，確保大修按期、按預算完成，而且目前進展非常順利。所以這算是當下的第一要務。

And then secondary to that is to the second biggest opportunity for us is to continue drilling out these sidetrack wells that we have in inventory at the Firebag site. We plan to do 20 of them this year. Again, these are just producing wells, so high return wells, quick returns for us, and the PADS team is out there actively working to bring these online.

其次，我們第二大的機會，是持續把 Firebag 現場庫存中的這些側鑽井（sidetrack wells）鑽完。我們今年計畫做 20 口。同樣地，這些都是生產井，所以是高報酬井、回收很快；PADS 團隊正在現場積極推進，讓這些井上線投產。

Well, we haven't talked a lot about it a bit on this call, but we're in the midst of kind of the two big upstream turnarounds for the early part of the year at the base mine and Firebag. And we anticipate that those should be wrapped up before the end of the second quarter, and that will position us for the kind of the typical second-half of the year sprint that we do in our business.

另外，雖然我們在這通電話裡沒有談太多，但我們正處於年初上游兩個大型大修的期間：基礎礦場（base mine）以及 Firebag。我們預期這些應該會在第二季結束前收尾，這將讓我們能為下半年業務中典型的衝刺階段做好準備。

And then if I flip to the downstream, Dave has had in the first quarter, he had work at both Sarnia and Commerce City, which are now largely behind us. And he's got pretty clear sailing until late in the third quarter before we do some work in Edmonton and Montreal. So it's focused on getting that planned work done over the next several weeks. And then thereafter, it's getting -- it's that sprint that really delivers in the second half of the year, and we're right on target to do exactly that.

再把鏡頭轉到下游，Dave 在第一季於 Sarnia 與 Commerce City 都有工程，現在大致都已經告一段落。他在第三季後段之前會相對順風，直到我們在愛德蒙頓與蒙特婁做一些工作。因此接下來幾週的重點是把這些計畫性工作完成。之後，就是——那個真正能在下半年交出成果的衝刺，而我們完全按目標在走，準備做到這一點。

Yeah. Richard, the follow-up to the macro, I mean, you've been in this business since, what, 1981 when you started with Exxon, and so -- you still look younger than most of us. The question that I guess a lot of us would love to get your perspective on is put this moment in time in history where we're dealing with tremendous volatility and there's a lot of geopolitical risk and we're moving headline to headline.

是的。Richard，接著是宏觀問題。我的意思是，你從 1981 年開始在 Exxon 工作就進入這個產業了，所以——你看起來仍比我們大多數人都年輕。很多人很想聽聽你的觀點：把當下這個時點放到歷史長河中來看——我們正面對巨大的波動、很多地緣政治風險，而且每天都在跟著新聞標題走。

What do you think are the long-term implications of the current conflict? And does that change the way that you think Big Oil should be thinking or running their business? Or do you stay the course?

你認為當前衝突的長期影響會是什麼？這是否會改變你對大型石油公司（Big Oil）應該如何思考或經營其業務的看法？還是說維持既定路線？

Well, one of the few benefits of getting older is you do see things in perspective a little bit. And obviously, this is just the fundamental nature of a global commodity. We've got ups and downs in the cycle, and we've seen those before. I would say that each of them have a level of uniqueness, and this one has even more uniqueness.

嗯，變老少數的好處之一是，你確實會更能以宏觀角度看事情。很明顯，這就是全球大宗商品的基本特性。我們在週期中有起有落，而我們以前也見過。我會說每一次都有其獨特性，而這一次的獨特性更強。

I think that the fundamental question is, does it reset? Does it become a geopolitical premium or something on security of supply? I would also say, though, that in our business, given the long-term capital-intensive nature, I think the best companies over time don't overreact to what could be short-term phenomena either on the upside or the downside. And I think the plan we put out in Investor Day gives us a rock-solid value-creating plan. And our vision today is that we will march along that plan and continue to deliver on it.

我認為根本的問題是：它會不會重置？會不會變成一種地緣政治溢價，或是與供應安全相關的溢價？不過我也要說，在我們這個產業，考量到長期且資本密集的特性，我認為最好的公司長期來看，不會對可能只是短期現象的事情（無論是上行或下行）反應過度。我也認為我們在投資人日提出的計畫，提供了一個非常穩健、能創造價值的方案。我們今天的願景是，我們會按部就班地沿著那個計畫前進，並持續交付成果。

If as time goes on, the dust settles, we determined that we're in a different world in a more enduring basis than we perhaps were a few months ago, we'll re-examine those. And I think what we shared with Investor Day, we have material upside potential to do more if the world calls for that. But I don't mean to make light of the current environment, but at Suncor, we are acutely focused on what we can control and delivering on it.

如果隨著時間推移，塵埃落定後，我們判斷我們所處的是一個在更持久基礎上不同的世界，而不只是幾個月前那樣，我們會重新檢視那些事項。我認為我們在投資人日分享的內容顯示，如果世界需要，我們有實質的上行潛力可以做得更多。但我無意淡化當前環境；在 Suncor，我們高度專注於我們能控制的事情，並把它做好、交付成果。

And in times like this, I think Troy described it well, you really see the synergistic effects of the asset base and the organization we built in times like this. Whether prices are going up, whether they're going down or whether they're stable, this company is built to deliver, generate cash in any and all of those environments. So kind of a long answer, Neil, to very, very interesting in it, but we are continuing to focus on the plans we've already laid out.

而在這樣的時刻，我認為 Troy 說得很好，你會真正看到我們資產基礎與我們所建立的組織在這種時候所產生的協同效應。不論價格上漲、下跌或持平，這家公司都被打造為能在任何環境下交付成果、產生現金。所以，Neil，這算是一個比較長的回答；這確實非常有意思，但我們會持續專注於我們已經提出的計畫。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Patrick O'Rourke, ATB Cormark Capital Markets.

Patrick O'Rourke，ATB Cormark Capital Markets。

Hey. Good morning, guys, and congratulations on another strong quarter here. I'm just going back to the refinery business downstream here. Just taking a look through some of the numbers, one thing that stood out to us was the sales to throughput ratio, the sales to refinery output ratio. And we've seen sort of a bit of progression of that over the past couple of years, and I realize it'll ebb and flow a bit. What's sort of the outlook for squeezing some incremental value out of this for the rest of the year?

嗨。各位早安，也恭喜本季再度交出強勁的成績。我想回到下游的煉油業務。看了一些數字後，有一點特別引起我們注意，就是銷售量對處理量的比率、銷售量對煉廠產出的比率。過去幾年我們看到這個比率有些逐步變化，我也理解它會有些起伏。那麼，今年剩下的時間，從這裡再擠出一些增量價值的展望是什麼？

Patrick, this is a really cool question. And the reason it is we spend on these calls and things, we talk so much about crude unit throughput and utilization, and that's kind of the barometer that we use. But as we all know, there's more to it than that. There are other dimensions of ability to add value.

Patrick，這真是個很棒的問題。原因在於，我們在這些電話會議等場合，常常談到原油蒸餾裝置（crude unit）的處理量與稼動率，這算是我們使用的指標。但大家都知道，事情不只如此，還有其他能夠增加價值的面向。

So Dave, why don't you talk about as your team has maximized the utilization of the crude units, what you're also doing and some of the impacts you're having in other areas?

所以 Dave，你不如談談，當你的團隊把原油蒸餾裝置的稼動率最大化之後，你們還在做哪些事，以及在其他領域帶來了哪些影響？

Yeah, for sure. And we talked about a little bit this already, retail growth is part of our sales story, where did the volume go. We talked about the export channel that we've maxed out to capture the market and the non-crude inputs into the refineries. All of that really does contribute to the growing sales, but not only growing sales, but growing sales do some of our best channels.

好的，當然。我們之前也稍微提過，零售成長是我們銷售故事的一部分，也就是量跑到哪裡去了。我們談到我們已把出口通路用到極致，以掌握市場；也談到煉廠的非原油投入（non-crude inputs）。這些確實都促成了銷售成長；而且不只是銷售成長，還是透過我們一些最好的通路來實現的銷售成長。

Maybe I'll give another example of what we've been doing in the last couple of quarters is jet fuel in Montreal. In December of last year, we started making jet fuel in Montreal, as that turned out to be pretty good timing to start a jet fuel for the first time. We're at lower rates now, but that has the potential to grow it up to 16,000 barrels a day of jet fuel production.

我再舉一個例子，說說我們過去幾個季度在做的事：蒙特婁的航空燃油（jet fuel）。去年 12 月，我們開始在蒙特婁生產航空燃油；事後看來，這是個相當好的時點，因為這是我們第一次開始做航空燃油。現在產量較低，但它有潛力提升到每日 16,000 桶的航空燃油產量。

And the original plan was to sell that domestically into the airports in Montreal area, a little bit into Ottawa. And then we saw this unique market blowout in the first quarter and continuing into the second quarter where jet fuel became pretty short in certain markets. The team in Montreal was able to work across really through our whole value chain to come up with a logistics option and quality certification to export jet.

原本的計畫是把它在國內銷售到蒙特婁地區的機場，並有一小部分到渥太華。接著我們在第一季看到一個獨特的市場大幅擴張（blowout），而且延續到第二季，某些市場的航空燃油變得相當短缺。蒙特婁團隊能夠跨部門合作，幾乎動員我們整條價值鏈，提出一個物流方案並完成品質認證，以出口航空燃油。

And we were able to sell jet, as Troy mentioned, into the Caribbean at $10 or $15 a barrel above our alternatives, which was pretty awesome. And then just last week, we certified our jet fuel to sell into Europe. It has some pretty unique quality requirements, and we sold our first cargo into Rotterdam last week. So that's where some of the sales are going, where we're upgrading the value chain and using our unique logistics and flexibility to try to capture value.

我們得以把航空燃油（如 Troy 提到的）賣到加勒比海地區，價格比我們的替代方案每桶高出 10 到 15 美元，這相當不錯。然後就在上週，我們完成了航空燃油銷往歐洲的認證。那邊有一些相當獨特的品質要求，而我們上週把第一批貨賣到了鹿特丹。所以部分銷售就是往這些方向走：我們在升級價值鏈，並運用我們獨特的物流與彈性來捕捉價值。

Just maybe one other comment too on what we refer to as more explicitly the secondary units, and I know you're kind of hitting on that. But I guess I'm asking, but I'm kind of answering, is the same priority and focus Dave and Peter's teams have been putting on asset utilization where we've made investments? They don't stop at just the headline units. The upgraders, the crude units, they apply into each and every asset. And when there is spare capacity, that can create value.

另外我也補充一點，關於我們更明確稱為二次加工裝置（secondary units）的部分，我知道你其實是在問這個。不過我想說、也等於在回答的是：Dave 和 Peter 的團隊在資產稼動率上的同樣優先順序與專注度——也就是我們已經投入資本的地方——不會只停留在那些最主要、最醒目的裝置。升級廠（upgraders）、原油蒸餾裝置等，他們會把同樣的方法套用到每一項資產上。而當存在閒置產能時，就能創造價值。

We just don't talk about those smaller assets or smaller components as much, but they create value and they give us optionality and flexibility, whether that's custom cocktails coming out of the base plant or whether that's creating value in the downstream. And this is a part of why I think you see when -- for at least a few quarters in a row, you see, okay, they kind of -- they got a little bit of a beat on volumes, but they got more of a beat on value. And that is not done yet.

我們只是比較少談那些較小的資產或較小的組成部分，但它們確實能創造價值，也給我們選擇權與彈性——不論是從基礎工廠（base plant）產出客製化的調和產品（custom cocktails），或是在下游創造價值。這也是為什麼我認為你會看到——至少連續幾個季度——你會覺得，好像他們在量上有一點超預期，但在價值上超預期更多。而這件事還沒結束。

Okay, great. And then I know you just sort of gave your philosophy there in terms of not overreacting to strengthen the price or weakness in the prices. But when we take a look at things, net debt in the quarter, even with some working capital bill that, call it $6.8 billion, you've got the $10 billion net debt target. How do you think about timing and how you sort of release that to the equity shareholder? Or is this -- that spare capacity between where you are now and $10 billion just sort of a rainy day fund for now?

好的，很棒。接著我知道你剛才也談到你們的理念：不會因為油價走強或走弱而反應過度。但我們看數字，本季淨負債即使有一些營運資金的變動，也大概是 68 億美元；你們的淨負債目標是 100 億美元。你們如何看待時點，以及你們會如何把這部分釋放回饋給股東？或者說——從現在到 100 億美元之間的這段「餘裕」，目前只是先當作預備金（rainy day fund）？

Troy, you want to comment on it?

Troy，你要回應一下嗎？

Yeah, sure. Patrick, so obviously, the first thing we're going to look at is what our expected cash flows are for the year. And obviously, those have been significantly impacted by the change in business environment. But the second thing we do is we look at the sustainability of any change in our buyback, wanting to offer something to shareholders that others can't replicate, which is consistency.

好的，當然。Patrick，顯然我們首先會看的是今年的預期現金流。而且很明顯，這些已經因為商業環境的變化而受到顯著影響。第二件事是，我們會看任何回購（buyback）變動的可持續性；我們希望提供股東一個其他人難以複製的東西，也就是一致性。

So while we're absolutely going to be responsive to market events, we do actually want to remove as much variability as we can because we've actually removed a lot of variability from our business results. So it's really just a question of timing and an attempt not to be pro-cyclical.

所以，雖然我們絕對會對市場事件做出回應，但我們確實希望盡可能移除波動性，因為我們其實已經從我們的營運結果中移除了很多波動。因此這真的只是時點問題，以及試圖不要順週期（pro-cyclical）。

Okay. Thank you very much.

好的。非常感謝。

Manav Gupta, UBS.

Manav Gupta，UBS。

Good morning. I wanted to run on the theme of you are seeing a lot of interest from the US refining side on pipelines which are coming out of Canada given the current geopolitical situation. There is also news articles circulating that there is another pipe project which could have secured minimum level of commitments to move ahead. Can you talk a little bit about the incremental egress capacity that is coming out of Canada and why US refiners would really benefit from getting more Canadian crude into their refineries?

早安。我想延續一個主題：鑑於目前的地緣政治情勢，你們看到美國煉油端對於從加拿大出來的管線有很高的興趣。也有新聞報導在流傳，說還有另一個管線專案可能已取得足夠的最低承諾量，得以推進。你能否談談加拿大正在增加的額外外運（egress）能力，以及為什麼美國煉油商會真正受益於把更多加拿大原油送進他們的煉廠？

Thank you. Fundamentally, the US, if you just look back over the last 15 years or so and the whole US energy situation has changed so dramatically, whether it's crude or gas. But there's fundamentally a mismatch in the US of the crude they produce and the crude that they refine. Now, that's not everywhere, but there's a large mismatch. A lot of the US refining network has been designed and geared and rebuilt over time for heavy crews, and that's what we provide.

謝謝。從根本上說，如果你回顧過去大約 15 年，美國整體能源情勢已經發生了非常巨大的變化，不論是原油或天然氣。但美國在其生產的原油與其煉製的原油之間，根本上存在不匹配。當然這不是所有地區都如此，但有很大程度的不匹配。美國煉油體系中有相當一部分，長期以來是為重質原油（heavy crude）而設計、調整並逐步改建的，而這正是我們所提供的。

And my personal belief is that North America is a better, safer, stronger, more prosperous region when we optimize across the energy network. And just like we've talked about how maximizing the utilization of existing assets, debottlenecking, low-cost expansions, the exact same philosophies apply on these logistics systems. When you can incrementally add a capacity on an existing pipeline, you can typically do that faster and much cheaper than building new.

我個人的看法是，當我們在整個能源網路上進行最佳化時，北美會是一個更好、更安全、更強大、也更繁榮的區域。就像我們談過的，最大化既有資產的利用率、去瓶頸、低成本擴建，同樣的理念也適用於這些物流系統。當你能在既有管線上逐步增加輸送能力時，通常可以比新建管線更快、成本也低得多。

So I think this is a natural evolution. I think it's economically rational to keep looking at where we can expand existing capacities. In Canada, we also have that now increasingly to the west with like TMX, how can that further debottleneck and get more capacity. And those would be the fastest, cheapest ways to move more crude or more products to customers. So we're quite supportive of those initiatives.

所以我認為這是一種自然的演進。我認為從經濟角度來看，持續尋找我們可以擴充既有產能的地方是合理的。在加拿大，我們現在也越來越多地往西部推進，例如 TMX，我們如何進一步去瓶頸並取得更多運能。這些將是把更多原油或更多產品運送給客戶最快、最便宜的方法。因此我們相當支持這些倡議。

Thank you. My quick follow-up is here on the capture, which was pretty strong, 99%, I think, was flat versus the same quarter last year, and probably just like 100 bps or 200 bps lower than the last quarter. I'm just trying to understand, as the cracks spike, what are the challenges of keeping capture elevated at higher cracks level? If you could talk about the headwinds entailment to the capture for you as a system.

謝謝。我這裡有個簡短追問，關於 capture（捕捉率/實現率），表現相當強，99%——我想——與去年同季持平，且可能只比上一季低約 100 或 200 個基點。我想了解的是，當裂解價差飆升時，要在較高裂解價差水準下維持較高的 capture 會面臨哪些挑戰？如果可以的話，請談談作為一個系統，你們在 capture 上面臨的逆風有哪些。

Troy briefly commented on that in his comments. But Dave and/or Troy, why don't you both take that one?

Troy 在他的發言中已簡要提到。Dave 和/或 Troy，你們兩位何不一起回答這題？

Sure. And I think it's really, Manav, a summation of some of the comments I've already made. We have been able to be nimble and move quickly to capture market opportunities, not just domestically in Canada, but really globally. And that is a unique advantage that we have in Suncor. So I see that continuing to be something that we can continue to do and not create a particular headwind.

好的。我想，Manav，這其實是我先前一些評論的總結。我們一直能夠靈活應變、快速行動以掌握市場機會，不僅在加拿大國內，實際上是全球範圍。而這是我們在 Suncor 擁有的獨特優勢。所以我認為這會持續下去，並不會形成特別的逆風。

In terms of yields, we've improved our yields, we've improved our rates. I would see that continuing through the quarter. We'll see maybe a little bit of noise around turnarounds as we get in and out of turnarounds in the second quarter and into the third quarter. But our ability to capture the market, given our integrated nature, our strong supply and trading business and our export logistics, I think, continues to be really strong.

就收率而言，我們改善了收率，也提升了運轉率。我認為這會在本季持續。我們在第二季以及進入第三季時，隨著大修（turnarounds）進出，可能會有一些雜訊。但鑑於我們的一體化特性、強勁的供應與交易業務，以及出口物流能力，我認為我們掌握市場的能力仍然非常強。

I would just add, Manav, with respect to pricing responsiveness, that's also where we see an impact. It differs depending on the region and the market we're in. It also actually is somewhat driven by the speed at which the prices are changing. So if there's a very fast reset, then the impact of a delayed response is smaller. If there's more of a ratable increase over time or decrease, this can be the case, you'll actually find the impact is different.

我再補充一點，Manav，就價格反應速度而言，我們也看到影響。這會因我們所在的區域與市場而異；實際上也在某種程度上取決於價格變動的速度。如果價格非常快速地重設，那麼延遲反應的影響就較小；如果是隨時間逐步上升或下降（下降也可能發生），你會發現影響會不同。

You also actually have a difference depending on what level of profitability you're at. When you're at a very high level of profitability, we will find that our -- we do find that our competitors are willing to give away margin to get volume. At lower levels of profitability, they are less willing to do that. So that's where the duration aspect comes into it.

另外，影響也會因你所處的獲利水準而不同。當獲利水準非常高時，我們會發現競爭對手願意讓出利潤來換取銷量；在較低獲利水準時，他們較不願意這麼做。所以這就是「持續時間」因素會介入的地方。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Menno Hulshof, TD Cowen.

Menno Hulshof，TD Cowen。

Thanks, and good morning, everyone. I just have one follow-up question on your global marketing push, which you've addressed from a number of different angles already. But Rich, you mentioned that you moved, if I got the number right, 14 cargos in Q1. How much of that uptick is repeatable versus lumpier and more opportunistic? And how would you frame the potential margin uplift from marketing this year relative to last year, even 2024?

謝謝，各位早安。我只有一個追問，關於你們的全球行銷推進，你們已從多個角度談過。不過 Rich，你提到如果我沒記錯的話，你們在第一季運了 14 船貨。這個增加幅度有多少是可重複的、多少是較不均勻且更偏機會性的？另外，你會如何描述今年相較去年、甚至相較 2024 年，行銷帶來的潛在毛利提升？

I think, Menno, the repeatable question, I think the jury's still out a little on that. I think it depends on two parts, kind of what the current situation in the Middle East, how and when it resolves itself, that will be part of it. But I think the other thing is that as we've established these trade routes and that when we can compete and relative to our alternatives or relative to a customer's alternatives, you create new markets, markets that we can increasingly or confidently supply. So I think the repeatability, I don't know that we can answer that explicitly yet, but I do believe we are expanding our marketing reach and capabilities that will endure over a point in time.

Menno，關於可重複性這個問題，我覺得目前還很難下定論。我想它取決於兩個部分：一是中東目前的情勢，以及它如何、何時能夠解決，這會是其中一部分；另一個是，隨著我們建立起這些貿易航線，當我們能夠競爭——相對於我們的替代方案或相對於客戶的替代方案——你就會創造出新市場，也就是我們可以越來越有把握、越來越有信心供應的市場。所以可重複性我不確定現在能否明確回答，但我確實相信我們正在擴大行銷觸及與能力，而這些能力會在一段時間內持續存在。

Dave, you want to add anything to that?

Dave，你要補充嗎？

Sure, Rich. I would first confirm that that's absolutely correct. It will depend on the market opportunity. That's where the repeatability may have some noise. But in terms of ability to capture how the market opportunity presents itself, we have the logistics. We've actually been growing and debottlenecking our logistics in the same way we've been growing and debottlenecking our refining capacity.

當然，Rich。我先確認一下，這完全正確。這會取決於市場機會；可重複性在這裡可能會有一些雜訊。但就掌握市場機會呈現方式的能力而言，我們具備物流能力。事實上，我們一直在擴張並去瓶頸我們的物流，就像我們一直在擴張並去瓶頸我們的煉油產能一樣。

So we have the logistics. We're preferentially moving logistics, particularly diesel exports, to the West Coast and jet exports off the East Coast. We have that capability. That will only actually continue to grow in terms of capability. The question will be, is the market there to capture it or not? And if it is, we'll do that.

所以我們有物流。我們優先調度物流，特別是把柴油出口移往西岸、把航空燃油出口從東岸出貨。我們具備這樣的能力，而且這項能力只會持續成長。問題在於市場是否存在、是否有機會去捕捉；如果有，我們就會去做。

Menno, I'd just maybe add one other comment to that, but I think it's coming out in a lot of the answers today. On Investor Day, we had a chart really early in the deck, I believe it was titled Rebuilt to Win. And we talked about the integration of all the way kind of the leadership that we provide, the strategy or the strategic focus areas, the structure and then kind of our organizational culture.

Menno，我可能再補充一點，但我想今天很多回答其實都在反映這件事。在投資人日，我們在簡報很前面有一張圖，我記得標題是 Rebuilt to Win（重建以致勝）。我們談到從領導力、策略或策略聚焦領域、組織架構，到我們的組織文化，這些整合在一起。

What you're seeing is as all that continues to work together, that it's creating opportunities above and beyond what we could estimate at any point in time. And so our own ambitions continue to rise. I chuckle when I read some of the reports and things that Suncor is -- they're conservative on this or conservative on that. That's not how we feel at points in time, but our organization, with just crystal-clear objectives, continues to find ways to add and create more value.

你所看到的是，當這一切持續協同運作時，它會創造出超出我們在任何時間點所能估計的機會。因此我們自身的企圖心也持續提高。我讀到一些報告說 Suncor 在這方面保守、在那方面保守時會忍不住笑；在某些時點我們並不這麼覺得。但我們的組織在目標極其清晰的情況下，持續找到方法去增加並創造更多價值。

And as we've raised the bar on our operating performance, reduced this variability we've talked about, you can do that. You can talk to customers far afield, because when they know you can confidently and consistently provide them product, they're willing to enter into agreements with you, where previously you couldn't have entertained because you didn't know if you could hold up your end of the deal.

而且當我們提高營運表現的標準、降低我們談到的波動性時，你就能做到這點。你可以和遠方的客戶洽談，因為當他們知道你能有把握且穩定地供應產品時，他們願意與你簽訂協議；而在過去你可能無法考慮，因為你不知道自己是否能履行承諾。

So the interrelationship of our underlying operating performance and what that creates for us commercially, that is a big part of the story here. And I think you're going to continue to hear us share examples of how we're increasingly commercially astute to go along with operationally excellent.

所以，我們底層營運表現與其在商業面為我們創造的成果之間的相互關係，是這裡故事的一大部分。我想你們會持續聽到我們分享例子，說明我們如何在營運卓越的同時，也越來越具備商業敏銳度。

Thanks to you both. That was very helpful. I'll turn it back.

謝謝你們兩位。這非常有幫助。我把時間交回去。

I'm showing no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the conference back to Mr. Adam Albeldawi for any closing remarks.

我目前顯示沒有其他問題。現在我想把會議交回給 Adam Albeldawi 先生，請他做結語。

Thank you, everyone, for joining our call this morning. If you have any follow-up questions, please don't hesitate to reach out to our team.

謝謝各位今天早上參加我們的電話會議。如果你們有任何後續問題，請隨時與我們的團隊聯繫。

Operator, you can end the call.

接線員，你可以結束通話。

Thank you for participating. This concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.

感謝各位參與。今天的會議到此結束。您現在可以中斷連線。