Suncor Energy Inc (SU) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Suncor Energy fourth-quarter 2024 financial results call. (Operator Instructions)

您好，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 Suncor Energy 2024 年第四季財務業績電話會議。（操作員指令）

Please, be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker, Suncor Energy's Senior Vice President of External Affairs, Mr. Troy Little. Please go ahead.

請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。現在，我想將會議交給發言人，Suncor Energy 外部事務資深副總裁 Troy Little 先生。請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and good morning. Welcome to Suncor Energy's fourth-quarter earnings call. Please note that today's comments contain forward-looking information.

謝謝接線員，早安。歡迎參加 Suncor Energy 第四季財報電話會議。請注意，今天的評論包含前瞻性資訊。

Financial results may differ materially from the expected results because of various risk factors and assumptions that are described in our fourth quarter earnings release, as well as in our annual information form, both of which are available on SEDAR, EDGAR, and our website, suncor.com.

由於我們第四季財報和年度資訊表中所述的各種風險因素和假設，財務結果可能與預期結果有重大差異，兩者均可在 SEDAR、EDGAR 和我們的網站 suncor.com 上查閱。

Certain financial measures referred to in these comments are not prescribed by Canadian generally accepted accounting principles. For a description of these financial measures, please see our fourth-quarter earnings release.

這些評論中提到的某些財務指標並非加拿大公認會計原則所規定的。有關這些財務指標的描述，請參閱我們的第四季財報。

We will start with comments from Rich Kruger, President and Chief Executive Officer; followed by Kris Smith, Suncor's Chief Financial Officer. Also on the call are Peter Zebedee, Executive Vice President, Oil Sands; Dave Oldreive, Executive Vice President, Downstream; and Shelley Powell, Senior Vice President, Operational Improvement and Support Services.

我們首先從總裁兼首席執行官里奇·克魯格 (Rich Kruger) 的評論開始；接下來是 Suncor 財務長 Kris Smith。參加電話會議的還有油砂公司執行副總裁 Peter Zebedee； Dave Oldreive，下游執行副總裁；以及營運改善和支援服務資深副總裁 Shelley Powell。

Following the formal remarks, we'll open up the call to questions. Now I'll hand it over to Rich to share his comments.

正式發言結束後，我們將開始提問。現在我將把時間交給 Rich 來分享他的評論。

Good morning. Suncor's fourth quarter was about finishing 2024 strong and building momentum for 2025. I believe we accomplished both objectives. I'll focus my comments on key aspects of the full year 2024. Kris will primarily focus on the fourth quarter results.

早安.森科爾第四季的目標是在 2024 年取得強勁成績，並為 2025 年積蓄力量。我相信我們實現了兩個目標。我的評論將重點放在 2024 年全年的關鍵方面。Kris 將主要關注第四季度的業績。

Let me start with personnel safety, our top priority. As you've heard before, 2023 was our safest year ever. I'm pleased to report 2024's performance was as good as or better than 2023. Some statistics. The number of lost time injuries were down 30% year on year and down 60% over the last two years. Our lost time incident rate is tied for our best ever. Number of recordable injuries were down 16% year on year or 30% over the last two years, and our recordable incident rate in 2024 was indeed best ever.

首先我要說一下人員安全，這是我們的首要任務。正如您之前所聽到的，2023 年是我們有史以來最安全的一年。我很高興地報告 2024 年的表現與 2023 年一樣好甚至更好。一些統計數據。損失工時傷害數量比去年同期下降了 30％，過去兩年內下降了 60％。我們的工時損失事故率達到了歷史最高水準。可記錄的傷害數量比去年同期下降了 16%，過去兩年下降了 30%，而 2024 年的可記錄事故率確實是有史以來最好的。

Process safety, a function of our people, our work management processes, and our facilities. 2024's performance was best ever, a significant 30% better than our previous best, and it positions us within the first quartile in North America.

製程安全是我們人員、工作管理流程和設施的職能。 2024 年的表現是有史以來最好的，比我們之前的最佳表現高出 30%，並且使我們位居北美第一四分位數。

Upstream production, full year, 828,000 barrels a day, far and away the best year in company history. 51,000 barrels a day or 6.5% higher than our previous best, and 82,000 barrels a day or 11% higher than last than 2023, and 18,000 barrels a day above the high end of guidance.

全年上游產量為每天 828,000 桶，是公司歷史上最好的一年。比我們之前的最佳產量高出 51,000 桶/日或 6.5%，比 2023 年的產量高出 82,000 桶/日或 11%，比指導上限高出 18,000 桶/日。

Full year upgrader utilization, 98%, the highest annual average ever, 6% higher than our previous best. Three of four quarters in 2024 had utilization of 99% or higher, and both the base plant and Syncrude achieved best ever performance.

全年升級利用率為 98%，為有史以來的最高年平均值，比我們之前的最佳水平高出 6%。2024 年四個季度中有三個季度的利用率達到或超過 99%，基礎工廠和 Syncrude 都實現了有史以來最好的表現。

Added perspective on the 82,000 barrels a day increase from 2023 to 2024, about half of it is related to the fourth quarter '23 acquisition impact of Total's 31% interest in Fort Hills. The other half is straight up performance within the exact same asset base. Monthly, quarterly, and annual records were set across the company, led by Firebag at 234,000 barrels a day in '24, up 17,000 barrels a day or 8% year on year. Over the last two years, Firebag added 35,000 barrels a day or 18%. It is our most profitable asset and internally known as the gift that keeps on giving.

從 2023 年到 2024 年每天增加 82,000 桶的角度來看，其中約有一半與道達爾在 Fort Hills 的 31% 權益的 23 年第四季度收購影響有關。另一半則是完全相同的資產基礎上的直接表現。整個公司都創下了月度、季度和年度產量記錄，其中 Firebag 的產量最高，在 1924 年達到每天 234,000 桶，比去年同期增加 17,000 桶/天，增幅為 8%。在過去兩年中，Firebag 每天新增產量 35,000 桶，增幅為 18%。這是我們最賺錢的資產，在公司內部被稱為持續給予的禮物。

Refining throughput, full year, 465,000 barrels a day, again, far and away the best year in our history. 24,000 barrels a day or 5.5% better than our previous best. And 44,000 barrels a day or 10.5% higher than 2023. And again, 20,000 barrels a day above the high end of guidance.

全年煉油產量達到每天 465,000 桶，再次成為我們歷史上最好的一年。每天 24,000 桶，比我們之前的最佳產量高出 5.5%。比 2023 年增加 44,000 桶/日，即 10.5%。並且，日產量比預期高出 20,000 桶。

Full-year refining utilization, 100%, our highest annual average ever, 5% higher than our previous best. All four refineries were outstanding, ranging from 94% to 105% utilization. Edmonton, our most profitable refinery, led the pack with a record 105%.

全年煉油利用率達到 100%，為歷史最高年平均水平，比之前的最佳水平高出 5%。四家煉油廠均表現出色，利用率在 94% 至 105% 之間。我們利潤最高的煉油廠埃德蒙頓以創紀錄的 105% 領先。

A fact for you, every major asset company-wide, upstream and downstream, operated at greater than 100% utilization for the entire fourth quarter. This is extraordinary performance and a credit to Suncor teams company wide.

事實上，在整個第四季度，公司所有主要資產（包括上游和下游）的利用率都超過了 100%。這是非凡的表現，也是整個 Suncor 公司團隊的榮譽。

Refined product sales, full year, 600,000 barrels a day, again, far and away the best year in company history. 46,000 barrels a day or 8%, higher than our previous best. And 47,000 barrels a day or 8.5% higher than 2023. 20,000 barrels a day above the high end of guidance. All four quarters in 2024 were the highest quarters in company history.

全年成品油銷售量達到每天 60 萬桶，再次成為公司史上最好的一年。每天 46,000 桶，即 8%，高於我們之前的最佳產量。比 2023 年高出 47,000 桶/日，即 8.5%。2024年的四個季度均為公司歷史上最高的季度。

In fact, it was back-to-back to back-to-back quarterly records. Suncor, we call that a four-peat. Even Pat Riley, former coach of the LA Lakers, would be jealous.

事實上，這是連續兩季創下的紀錄。森科爾，我們稱之為四連冠。甚至連洛杉磯湖人隊的前教練帕特·萊利都會嫉妒。

Total OS&G, $13.1 billion, down $324 million in absolute dollars year on year, and this is despite 11% higher upstream production and 10.5% higher refining throughput. Let that soak in for a minute, 10% to 11% higher volumes and 2.5% lower absolute costs. Every major operated asset, upstream and downstream, delivered lower absolute and or unit costs in '24 versus '23.

整體 OS&G 支出為 131 億美元，以絕對金額計算，年減 3.24 億美元，儘管上游產量增加了 11%，煉油產量增加了 10.5%。讓我們思考一下，銷量提高了 10% 到 11%，絕對成本降低了 2.5%。與23年相比，24年的每項主要營運資產（上游和下游）的絕對成本和/或單位成本都有所下降。

I'll offer another perspective on year-on-year cost management. Let's assume that that fourth-quarter '23 acquisition of Total's 31% working interest in Fort Hills never happened. Take out all the impacts of the additional ownership, production costs, apples to apples, 2024 versus 2023 performance with the exact same asset base. OS&G would have been down $1 billion, yet upstream production would have been up 37,000 barrels a day and refining throughput, 44,000 barrels a day.

我將提供關於逐年成本管理的另一種觀點。讓我們假設 23 年第四季對道達爾在 Fort Hills 的 31% 工作權益的收購從未發生過。消除額外所有權、生產成本、同類比較、2024 年與 2023 年業績的所有影響，同時保持完全相同的資產基礎。OS&G 將損失 10 億美元，但上游產量將增加 37,000 桶/天，煉油產量將增加 44,000 桶/天。

My message here is operating leverage is creating tremendous value company wide. Volumes delivery, asset utilization, and cost management, each require discipline, determination, attention to detail, and a mindset that every barrel and every dollar matter. That is the mindset and culture of today's Suncor.

我在這裡要傳達的訊息是，經營槓桿正在為整個公司創造巨大的價值。大量交付、資產利用和成本管理都需要紀律、決心、關注細節以及重視每一桶石油和每一美元的心態。這就是當今 Suncor 的思維方式和文化。

Total capital, $6.2 billion, more than $200 million below the midpoint of guidance. Again, discipline, attention to detail, and rigor in execution. Free funds flow, $7.4 billion in 2024, essentially flat with 2023. However, the business environment decreased free funds flow by about $1.5 billion year on year. Downstream cracks, sweet and sour synthetic differentials.

總資本 62 億美元，比指導中位數低 2 億多美元。再次強調，紀律、注重細節、嚴格執行。自由資金流，2024 年為 74 億美元，與 2023 年基本持平。然而，商業環境導致自由資金流較去年同期減少約15億美元。下游裂解、甜酸合成差異化。

Capital was $500 million higher as planned in '24 versus '23. You recall the two drivers there were Peter's 55 new 400-ton haul trucks and opening two pits versus one pit in the Fort Hills North Mine. In addition, we had the absence of fourth quarter '23 tax pools from the Fort Hills acquisition of about $750 million.

與 23 年相比，24 年資本按計畫增加了 5 億美元。您還記得嗎，那裡的兩名司機駕駛著彼得的 55 輛新 400 噸自卸卡車，在 Fort Hills North Mine 開闢了兩個礦坑，而另一個礦坑則只開闢了一個。此外，我們沒有從 Fort Hills 收購案中獲得約 7.5 億美元的 23 年第四季稅收池。

If you do the math, organizational self-help, what Suncor teams delivered in volumes, cost, margins, added $2.75 billion in free funds flow year on year, essentially offsetting the headwinds dollar for dollar. Of that, we returned $5.7 billion in cash to shareholders, buybacks at [$2.9 billion], 4.3% of shares, and dividends of [$2.8 billion].

如果你算一下，透過組織自助，Suncor 團隊在產量、成本、利潤等方面的交付量比去年同期增加了 27.5 億美元的自由資金流，基本上抵消了逆風的影響。其中，我們向股東返還了 57 億美元現金，回購了 [29 億美元]，4.3% 的股份，以及股息[28億美元]。

Take you back nine months to our Investor Day, May 2024. We communicated several big objectives over a three-year period from 2024 through 2026. Upstream production growth of 108,000 barrels a day, $10 a barrel reduction in our corporate breakeven, $3.3 billion increase in annual free funds flow, and an $8 billion net debt target at which time we would shift to 100% buybacks. We told you we would report on our progress, so here we go.

帶您回顧九個月前的投資人日，即 2024 年 5 月。我們傳達了從 2024 年到 2026 年三年期間的幾個大目標。上游產量增加 108,000 桶/天，公司損益平衡點每桶減少 10 美元，年度自由資金流增加 33 億美元，淨債務目標為 80 億美元，屆時我們將轉向 100％ 回購。我們告訴過您我們將報告我們的進展，所以讓我們開始吧。

108,000 barrel a day production growth. Our target in 2024 was 60,000 barrels a day. We achieved 82,000. $10 a barrel reduction in our breakeven. Our target in 2024 was $4 a barrel. We achieved $7. $3.3 billion increase in annual free funds flow. Our target in 2024 was $1.3 billion. We achieved $2.3 billion.

每日產量增加108,000桶。我們 2024 年的目標是每天 60,000 桶。我們達到了82000。我們的損益平衡點每桶減少10美元。我們 2024 年的目標是每桶 4 美元。我們實現了 7 美元。每年自由資金流動增加33億美元。我們 2024 年的目標是 13 億美元。我們實現了23億美元。

$8 billion net debt. Our target was mid-2025. We achieved it at the end of the third quarter 2024. Delivering on commitments, again, the culture of today's Suncor.

80 億美元的淨債務。我們的目標是2025年中期。我們在 2024 年第三季末實現了這一目標。再次履行承諾，體現了當今 Suncor 的企業文化。

We've uploaded a presentation on the events and presentations page under the investor section of our website where we detail the free funds flow update, and the material shows the progress for the three-year plan. We'll continue to provide this to help save folks some analytical time.

我們在網站投資者部分下的活動和演示頁面上上傳了一份演示文稿，其中詳細介紹了免費資金流動更新，並且該材料展示了三年計劃的進展情況。我們將繼續提供此服務，以幫助人們節省一些分析時間。

Bottom line, one year into a three-year plan, we're exceeding every target established. In fact, we've essentially achieved target improvements for 2024 and '25 in the first year. We're accelerating capture of shareholder value, and that will continue this year now with a full year planned at 100% buybacks. Our objective in 2025 is to solidify the 2024 gains and proceed to capture the next tranche of value.

總而言之，三年計畫已經進行了一年，我們超額完成了所有既定目標。事實上，我們在第一年就基本實現了 2024 年和 2025 年的目標改善。我們正在加速獲取股東價值，今年將繼續這一進程，並計劃全年實現 100% 的回購。我們 2025 年的目標是鞏固 2024 年的收益並繼續獲得下一批價值。

My final comments, 2024's results are a credit to our people across the company, their expertise, their dedication, their determination, Suncor teams delivered, and personally, I am so proud to work with these people each day.

我的最後評論是，2024 年的業績歸功於我們全公司的員工，他們的專業知識、奉獻精神、決心、Suncor 團隊的努力，就我個人而言，我感到非常自豪能夠每天與這些人一起工作。

With that, I'll turn it over to Kris. Great.

說完這些，我會把話題交給克里斯。偉大的。

Great. Thanks, Rich. Good morning, everyone.

偉大的。謝謝，里奇。大家早安。

2024, what a great year for the company and our shareholders. So much happened across our business last year. All of the operational cost performance that Rich just highlighted, which allowed us to generate substantial free funds flow, retire $1.1 billion in principle of our debt, hit our $8 billion net debt target early, move to returning 100% of excess funds to our shareholders, and of course, raise our dividend. All of which resulted in substantial return of cash to our investors in 2024 to the tune of $5.7 billion in dividends and share buybacks.

2024年，對於公司和我們的股東來說是多麼偉大的一年。去年我們的業務發生了很多事情。Rich 剛剛強調的所有營運成本績效使我們能夠產生大量自由資金流，償還 11 億美元的債務本金，提前實現 80 億美元的淨債務目標，將 100% 的超額資金返還​​給股東，當然，還提高了我們的股息。所有這些都使我們在 2024 年以股息和股票回購的形式向投資者帶來了大量現金回報，總額達到 57 億美元。

And we're set up for continued improvement in 2025. But let's first talk about the fourth quarter as we closed out the year very strongly as you saw from our operational update in early January.

我們已準備好在 2025 年繼續進步。但是，讓我們先談談第四季度，因為正如您從 1 月初的營運更新中看到的那樣，我們以非常強勁的業績結束了這一財年。

Now first, with respect to the business environment in the quarter, we saw crude oil prices continue to weaken during the quarter with WTI averaging USD70 a barrel, light heavy differential steady at USD13 a barrel, and synthetic crude averaging an $0.85 barrel premium to WTI.

首先，就本季的商業環境而言，我們看到原油價格在本季持續走弱，WTI 平均為每桶 70 美元，輕重原油差價穩定在每桶 13 美元，合成原油平均比 WTI 溢價 0.85 美元/桶。

On the refining side, we saw cracking margins decrease driven by weaker gasoline cracks. However, our 5221 refining index remained strong at USD24.25 a barrel, which is $1.80 below Q3, driven primarily by lower cracks, offset by lower crude oil pricing.

在煉油方面，我們看到由於汽油裂解減弱導致裂解利潤率下降。然而，我們的 5221 煉油指數保持強勁，為每桶 24.25 美元，比第三季低 1.80 美元，這主要受裂解價格下降的影響，但被原油價格下跌所抵消。

Finally, natural gas prices increased by $0.80 a [GJ], averaging $1.45 in the quarter, but obviously remained attractively priced for natural gas consumers like our business.

最後，天然氣價格上漲了 0.80 美元/[GJ]，本季平均為 1.45 美元，但對於像我們這樣的天然氣消費者來說，顯然仍然具有吸引力。

Turning to our operational performance in the quarter and building on Rich's comments you just heard, we closed the year with exceptionally strong operational performance across the board. Total upstream production averaged 875,000 barrels a day in the quarter, including almost 818,000 barrels per day in oil sands and almost 58,000 barrels per day in E&P. This was the highest ever quarterly production in our history.

談到本季的營運業績，並根據您剛才聽到的 Rich 的評論，我們以全面強勁的營運業績結束了這一財年。本季上游總產量平均為每天 875,000 桶，其中油砂產量為每天近 818,000 桶，探勘與生產產量為每天近 58,000 桶。這是我們史上最高的季度產量。

Firebag averaged a record 250,000 barrels a day in the quarter. Fort Hills was above plan at 162,000 barrels per day and continues to deliver on its improvement plan. And Upgrader utilization at base plant and Syncrude were very strong at 102% and 105% respectively.

本季度，Firebag 的日均產量達到了創紀錄的 25 萬桶。Fort Hills 的產量超出計劃，達到每天 162,000 桶，並且繼續執行其改進計劃。基礎工廠和 Syncrude 的升級裝置利用率非常強勁，分別為 102% 和 105%。

Refinery throughput averaged 486,000 barrels per day, or 104% utilization in the quarter. This is the second quarter in a row with all four refineries operating at or above 100% utilization. Yet another first. Refined product sales averaged a record 613,000 barrels a day. And margin capture averaged 90% on a LIFO basis when compared to our 5221 index. This sales performance, which was up 38,000 barrels per day quarter over quarter, reflects both the high reliability of our refining assets and the strength of our integrated supply and marketing channels.

本季煉油廠平均日產量為 486,000 桶，利用率為 104%。這是四家煉油廠連續第二季的產能利用率都達到或超過 100％。又一個第一。成品油銷售量平均每天達到創紀錄的613,000桶。與我們的 5221 指數相比，以後進先出法計算，利潤捕獲率平均為 90%。這項銷售業績比上一季增加了 38,000 桶/天，反映了我們煉油資產的高可靠性以及我們綜合供應和行銷管道的實力。

We also continued to demonstrate operating leverage with total OS&G expense of $3.4 billion, which was flat quarter over quarter, while production and sales were up significantly in both the upstream and the downstream.

我們也繼續展示營運槓桿，總 OS&G 支出為 34 億美元，與上一季持平，而上游和下游的產量和銷售額均大幅上升。

Also in the quarter, we successfully completed the base plant cogeneration facility, which is now ramping up. This project will provide integrated steam and power to our base plant operations and the capability to export up to 800 megawatts of baseload electricity to Alberta's power grid. This strong operational performance led to strong financial results in the quarter, despite a drop in crude prices and refining cracks from Q3.

此外，在本季度，我們成功完成了基地工廠熱電聯產設施的建設，目前正在加速建設。該項目將為我們的基礎工廠運作提供綜合蒸汽和電力，並能夠向阿爾伯塔省電網輸出高達 800 兆瓦的基載電力。儘管原油價格和煉油裂解價較第三季有所下跌，但強勁的營運表現仍為本季帶來了強勁的財務業績。

We generated $3.5 billion in adjusted funds from operations, or $2.78 per share in the quarter, and adjusted operating earnings of $1.6 billion, or $1.25 per share.

本季度，我們的調整後經營活動資金為 35 億美元，即每股 2.78 美元，調整後經營收益為 16 億美元，即每股 1.25 美元。

In the quarter, Suncor returned $1.7 billion to shareholders, including $713 million in dividends, which reflects a 5% increase in our quarterly dividend to $0.57 per share, underpinned by sustained operational improvements across the business and progress on our free funds flow growth initiatives. This is consistent with our commitment to a steadily growing and sustainable dividend.

本季度，森科向股東返還了 17 億美元，其中包括 7.13 億美元的股息，這反映出我們的季度股息增加 5% 至每股 0.57 美元，這得益於整個業務的持續營運改善和自由資金流成長計畫的進展。這與我們對穩步成長和可持續股息的承諾是一致的。

Share buybacks in the quarter totaled $1 billion, reflecting a step up in share repurchases with a shift to returning 100% of excess funds to shareholders now that we're at our net debt target.

本季的股票回購總額為 10 億美元，反映出股票回購的增加，現在我們已達到淨債務目標，轉向將 100% 的超額資金返還​​給股東。

Speaking of which, we were very pleased that we hit our $8 billion net debt target early, and it is down $3 billion from end of 2023, and $10 billion from our high-water mark in 2020. In under five years, we've more than cut our net debt in half while expanding our free funds flow.

說到這一點，我們非常高興我們提前實現了 80 億美元的淨債務目標，並且比 2023 年底下降了 30 億美元，比 2020 年的最高水位下降了 100 億美元。在不到五年的時間裡，我們將淨債務削減了一半以上，同時擴大了自由資金流。

As I indicated last quarter, you should expect our net debt to move up and down around that target from quarter to quarter as we manage working capital movements. In Q4, we saw a large release of working capital related to receivables, inventory, and taxes, and expect to have a working capital increase in Q1. But rest assured, we are fully committed to returning maximum cash to shareholders per our capital allocation framework while prudently managing our business and balance sheet.

正如我上個季度指出的那樣，隨著我們管理營運資本流動，您應該預期我們的淨債務將在每個季度圍繞該目標上下波動。在第四季度，我們看到與應收帳款、庫存和稅收相關的營運資本大量釋放，預計第一季營運資本將增加。但請放心，我們完全致力於按照我們的資本配置框架向股東返還最大額度的現金，同時審慎管理我們的業務和資產負債表。

Overall, fourth-quarter performance is a result of our relentless focus on the fundamentals of our business and demonstrate our continued execution acceleration of our $3.3 billion free funds flow growth target set out in our May Investor Day. And as Rich mentioned, we've uploaded a slide on our website specifically highlighting our progress towards that target.

整體而言，第四季的業績是我們堅持不懈關注業務基本面的結果，也顯示我們繼續加速執行五月投資者日制定的 33 億美元自由資金流成長目標。正如里奇所提到的，我們在網站上上傳了一個幻燈片，特別強調了我們實現這一目標所取得的進展。

Now before handing it back to Troy, I'd like to take a few moments, a few comments on our 2025 guidance released in December.

現在，在將其交還給特洛伊之前，我想花一點時間對我們 12 月發布的 2025 年指導意見發表一些評論。

We expect upstream production to average 810 to 840,000 barrels per day with continued strong production performance across our assets, including increased bitumen sales to market and factoring in planned maintenance, specifically planned downtime at base plant with the 91-day coke drum replacement project scheduled to start in the second quarter. Annual coker turnarounds at both Upgraduer 2 at base plant and Syncrude, both of which will be starting in the third quarter. And Fort Hills has small plan turnarounds in both the second and fourth quarters.

我們預計上游產量平均為每天 810 至 840,000 桶，我們的所有資產的生產表現將繼續保持強勁，包括增加瀝青市場銷售並考慮計劃維護，特別是基地工廠的計劃停機時間，其中 91 天的焦炭塔更換項目計劃於第二季度啟動。基地工廠 Upgraduer 2 和 Syncrude 的焦化裝置年度檢修均將於第三季開始。而 Fort Hills 在第二季和第四季都出現了小幅計畫轉變。

Downstream we're guiding to an average refinery utilization of 93% to 97%, which is higher than our 2024 guidance to reflect higher reliability offset by planned maintenance activities at our Sarnia refinery starting in Q1 and our Edmonton refinery starting in Q2.

在下游領域，我們預計煉油廠平均利用率為 93% 至 97%，高於我們的 2024 年預期，這反映了更高的可靠性，但這一優勢被從第一季度開始的薩尼亞煉油廠和第二季度開始的埃德蒙頓煉油廠的計劃維護活動所抵消。

Our capital guidance for 2025 of $6.1 billion to $6.3 billion is consistent with the plan outlined at our May Investor Day, including asset sustainment and maintenance capital largely consistent with 2024 guidance and economic investment capital, which is comprised of selective high value investments like the U1 coke drum replacement that I mentioned just a moment ago.

我們對 2025 年的資本指引為 61 億至 63 億美元，與我們在 5 月份投資者日概述的計劃一致，包括與 2024 年指導基本一致的資產維持和維護資本以及經濟投資資本，其中包括選擇性高價值投資，例如我剛才提到的 U1 焦炭塔更換。

2025 is all about building on the incredible momentum sparked by the success that we saw in 2024. We've only begun to see the impact of the initiatives we've started in the last year and a half. And like we said during our May Investor Day, our focus is on growing the bottom line, refunds flow, which will ultimately drive increased returns for our shareholders. And rest assured, the entire organization is focused on not only delivering on our commitments but beating them.

2025 年的目標是繼承 2024 年成功所激發的驚人勢頭。我們在過去一年半發起的舉措才剛開始產生影響力。正如我們在五月投資者日期間所說的那樣，我們的重點是增加利潤和退款流，這最終將為我們的股東帶來更高的回報。請放心，整個組織不僅致力於履行我們的承諾，而且致力於超越它們。

And with that, Troy, I'll hand it back over to you.

說完這些，特洛伊，我就把權杖還給你了。

Thank you, Kris. And I'm going to call back to the operator to take some questions.

謝謝你，克里斯。我將回電給接線員，回答一些問題。

(Operator Instructions) Greg Pardy, RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員指示） Greg Pardy，RBC 資本市場。

Yeah, thanks. Good morning. And thanks for the rundown. Chris, when you look at 2024, I mean the organization drove huge operational improvement both upstream and downstream. And when you look at 2025, does either segment shine more brightly or is this still expected to be fairly balanced between the two?

是的，謝謝。早安.感謝您的簡要介紹。克里斯，當你展望 2024 年時，我的意思是該組織在上游和下游都推動了巨大的營運改善。展望 2025 年，這兩個領域是否會更加輝煌，還是預期兩者之間仍將保持相當的平衡？

Greg, I'm going to let me start out answering your question. I'm going to turn it over to my two all-star linebackers here on the left, Peter and Dave, supplemented. But I think the philosophy we're bringing about the business of getting the most out of our existing asset base, that is company wide, looking at what are the constraints, what are the bottlenecks, how can we structurally change not only the performance, but the potential of the organization.

格雷格，我先來回答你的問題。我將把它交給左邊的兩位全明星後衛彼得和戴夫，作為補充。但我認為，我們帶來的經營理念是最大限度地利用我們現有的資產基礎，也就是整個公司範圍內，研究有哪些限制、有哪些瓶頸，我們如何從結構上改變組織的績效和潛力。

So that will go on. We got a good taste of success in '24, but we're not done yet in '25. But maybe if I could ask Peter and Dave to comment from each of your businesses, kind of your own thoughts on that going forward.

這將繼續下去。我們在24年嚐到了成功的滋味，但25年我們還沒結束。但也許我可以請彼得和戴夫對你們各自的業務發表評論，談談你們對未來的看法。

Sure. Thanks, Rich. Yeah, I think, Greg, the way to think about it is on a daily basis, on a shift-by-shift basis, we're really looking at where the constraints are in our production units. And so when we find those bottlenecks, when we find those pins, we're looking to see what technical work we can do to re-engineer that, to unlock additional barrels and move those barrels into the upgrading ecosystem.

當然。謝謝，里奇。是的，格雷格，我認為思考這個問題的方式是每天、逐班觀察，我們實際上都在觀察生產單位的限制因素在哪裡。因此，當我們找到這些瓶頸、找到這些引腳時，我們就會尋找可以進行哪些技術工作來重新設計它，以解鎖額外的桶並將這些桶移入升級生態系統。

So I would say in the oil sands segment, we absolutely have more potential that we're looking at. But these are low to kind of no-cost bottlenecks that the teams are looking at consistently across the plot. Dave?

因此我想說，在油砂領域，我們絕對擁有比我們所看到的更多的潛力。但這些都是低成本甚至無成本的瓶頸，團隊在整個情節中一直在關注它們。戴夫？

Yeah, and thanks, Peter. And Greg, great question. We were actually just talking about this at our downstream leadership team meeting just yesterday, where the team was saying, do we need to re-rate or not? And really, the conclusion we drew was, we don't think we're done yet, so it's not really the right time to go re-rate because there's still some more potential in our capacities.

是的，謝謝，彼得。格雷格，這個問題問得好。實際上，就在昨天，我們在下游領導團隊會議上剛剛討論了這個問題，團隊在說，我們是否需要重新評級？事實上，我們得出的結論是，我們認為我們還沒有完成，所以現在並不是重新評級的正確時機，因為我們的能力仍然有更多潛力。

The way we've been gaining increased capacity in the downstream, similar to Peter's, kind of informs how we might think about 2025 as well. We're seeing shorter turnarounds as we drive for competitiveness in our turnaround area. We are seeing better optimization during turnarounds and during other outages.

與彼得類似，我們在下游增加產能的方式也為我們如何看待 2025 年提供了參考。隨著我們不斷提升週轉領域的競爭力，我們看到週轉時間越來越短。我們在周轉期間和其他停機期間看到了更好的最佳化。

For example, in our Q2 turnaround in Sarnia, we took some intermediate components for the first time ever, moved them from Sarnia to Montreal. That allowed more crude rate in Sarnia and more conversion capacity in Montreal. We did that again during a short maintenance outage in Sarnia in the fall. So we see more opportunities like that to help our integration.

例如，在我們薩尼亞第二季的轉型中，我們首次將一些中間組件從薩尼亞運送到了蒙特婁。這使得薩尼亞的原油產量更高，蒙特婁的加工能力也更強。在秋季薩尼亞短暫的維護停電期間，我們又做了同樣的事情。因此，我們看到更多這樣的機會來幫助我們的整合。

And like Peter said, constraint busting, we have a results-focused mindset with our engineers and operators looking at the constraints every day, following our OEMS systems, and really within our operating envelopes, trying to de-bottleneck. We find a constraint, we remove the constraint, and then we look for the next one.

正如彼得所說，突破約束，我們以結果為導向，我們的工程師和操作員每天都會查看約束條件，遵循我們的 OEMS 系統，並在我們的操作範圍內努力消除瓶頸。我們發現一個約束，然後我們消除這個約束，再尋找下一個約束。

A few examples of that in 2024, and we don't know what 2025 will bring, but we think we'll see more of the same kind of examples. We modified some air registers in our crude furnaces in Montreal to get about 13 kbd rate increase.

2024 年有一些這樣的例子，我們不知道 2025 年會帶來什麼，但我們認為我們會看到更多類似的例子。我們對蒙特利爾原油爐的一些空氣調節器進行了改造，使產量提高了約 13 kbd。

In Sarnia, we replaced a control valve on the crude unit, 3 kbd. In Edmonton, we're working with Peter's team to optimize the crude slate into Edmonton -- to optimize every draw on our crude unit every day, and that gave us 3 or 4 kbd on the year.

在薩尼亞，我們更換了 3 kbd 原油裝置的控制閥。在埃德蒙頓，我們正與彼得的團隊合作，優化進入埃德蒙頓的原油供應，優化每天原油裝置的每一次抽取，這使我們每年的原油產量達到 3 或 4 千桶/天。

So we're going to continue to look for more opportunities like that, and I think there's potentially some upside in '25.

因此，我們將繼續尋找更多這樣的機會，我認為 25 年可能會有一些上行空間。

So I think, Greg, if I just circle back to the start of your question, we see these opportunities still across the enterprise, upstream and downstream. Is it more one or another? I don't look at it like that. I think just the overriding message is we're not done yet.

所以我認為，格雷格，如果我回到你問題的開頭，我們仍然看到這些機會遍布整個企業，包括上游和下游。是這個比較多還是那個比較多？我不這麼認為。我認為最重要的訊息是我們還沒有完成。

Okay. Thanks for that. Very, very complete. And then related to that, but I know, Peter, you've talked a lot about just the ability to source bitumen across the organization. Can you talk about maybe what I'd almost refer to as, like, multidimensional integration within Suncor that you've established?

好的。謝謝。非常非常完整。然後與此相關，但我知道，彼得，你已經談了很多關於在整個組織內採購瀝青的能力。您能否談談我幾乎提到的您在 Suncor 內部建立的多維整合？

Yeah. Absolutely, Greg. And I think, increasingly, it's good to think about our upgrading capabilities more like we do refining. So we can source bitumen from multiple sources within our bitumen production units in the region, and we can move those barrels to whatever upgraders requiring them when they're needed, and in largely the volumes that are required.

是的。當然，格雷格。我認為，我們最好越來越多地以煉油能力的方式來考慮我們的升級能力。因此，我們可以從該地區瀝青生產單位的多個來源採購瀝青，並且我們可以在需要時將這些瀝青桶運送到任何需要它們的升級裝置，基本上是所需的數量。

Our goal at the end of the day is to maintain, keep those upgraders full, and be relatively bitumen agnostic. So if we, you know, Syncrude needs more bitumen, we can move Firebag barrels over there. If a base plant upgrader needs topped up with additional bitumen, we can move Firebag barrels in there. We can move Fort Hills barrels in there.

我們最終的目標是維持並確保這些升級裝置的充分運行，並且保持相對不受瀝青的影響。所以如果我們，你知道，Syncrude 需要更多的瀝青，我們可以將 Firebag 桶運送到那裡。如果基礎工廠升級需要補充額外的瀝青，我們可以將 Firebag 桶移到那裡。我們可以將 Fort Hills 桶搬進那裡。

And so we have a team that looks after value optimization, moving the right barrels of bitumen to the right places at the right time to generate, you know, maximum profits.

因此，我們有一個團隊負責價值優化，將正確的瀝青桶在正確的時間運送到正確的地點，以產生最大的利潤。

I just add to that, it's not only the maximum volumes and things, but then with Dave's team looking at what is the market demanding at points in time and what products, the ability to, whether it's upgrading, but the slate of products we can produce, whether it's crude or products, we're very tied in there.

我只是想補充一點，這不僅是最大產量和其他事情，而且戴夫的團隊會研究市場在某個時間點的需求以及產品的能力，無論是升級，還是我們可以生產的產品種類，無論是原油還是產品，我們都緊密關注這一點。

So that integration goes way beyond just simply the physical integration of an asset base, but it all is about ultimate value all the way through the customer. And so how the teams work together, I would say, is at an increasingly uniquely integrated manner. And here again, my overriding messages, we're not done yet.

因此，這種整合遠遠超出了資產基礎簡單的實體整合，而是關乎整個客戶的最終價值。所以我想說，團隊之間的合作方式正變得越來越獨特和一體化。我再次強調，我們還沒完成。

Dennis Fong, CIBC.

加拿大帝國商業銀行 (CIBC) 的 Dennis Fong。

Hi. Good morning. I guess first, congratulations on the significant progress you've made to date on your plans and frankly, looking forward to 2025.

你好。早安.我想首先，祝賀您迄今為止在計劃上取得的重大進展，坦白說，期待 2025 年。

My first question here relates to Fort Hills. I was actually hoping if you could provide a bit of an update in terms of mine progression. I know on the last call, you discussed a little bit, or Peter discussed a little bit around moving from South Pit to Center and then obviously Center to North.

我的第一個問題與 Fort Hills 有關。我實際上希望您能提供一些有關我的進展的最新消息。我知道在上次通話中，你或彼得討論過從南坑轉移到中心，然後顯然是從中心轉移到北坑。

Just wanted to understand a little bit more about that as well as the heavy equipment deliveries and how you're making progress on the two cuts.

只是想更多地了解這一點以及重型設備交付的情況以及您在這兩項削減方面取得的進展。

Peter?

彼得？

Yep. Thanks, Dennis. We're actually really pleased with the development and the establishment of the Center Pit and the North Pit at Fort Hills. Maybe to give you a bit of perspective right now, things are well underway. We have 10 big mining shovels in the North Pit right now, moving both overburden and ore to the crushers.

是的。謝謝，丹尼斯。我們對於 Fort Hills 中心坑和北坑的開發和建立感到非常高興。也許現在可以讓您稍微了解一下，事情進展順利。我們目前在北礦坑有 10 台大型挖礦機，將覆蓋層和礦石運送到破碎機。

There's five shovels in the Center Pit and there's only one left in the South Pit and that is kind of doing that last final cleanup of the pit walls and the last little bit of ore in there. We'll be out of there in the next couple of months.

中心坑有五把鏟子，南坑只剩下一把，它正在對坑壁和裡面的最後一點礦石進行最後的清理。我們將在未來幾個月內離開那裡。

So I would say, really pleased with the transition. Ore delivery is predominantly from the Center and North Pits right now. North Pit 1 is up and established. North Pit 2 is in the queue for later this year, so I'm feeling really good about that. And obviously, Fort Hills continues to meet the commitments that we set out in our three-year reset plan in terms of production and our improvement in mine health. So I'm pleased with that.

所以我想說，我對這一轉變感到非常高興。目前礦石運輸主要來自中心礦坑和北礦坑。北坑一號已完工並投入使用。北坑二號預計將於今年稍後開挖，因此我對此感到非常高興。顯然，Fort Hills 繼續履行我們在三年重整計劃中提出的有關生產和礦井健康狀況改善的承諾。我很高興。

On the equipment delivery to the second part of your question, Richard mentioned mine's 55 trucks at the start. I'm not sure they're mine, but we did receive 45 of those trucks through 2024, exactly on schedule from our supplier. Happy with those. They went to both Fort Hills, but also to our base plant, received four more by the end of January and the remainder will be coming by the end of this month in February. So exactly on track with the equipment deliveries.

關於你問題第二部分的設備交付，理查德一開始提到了我的 55 輛卡車。我不確定它們是不是我的，但到 2024 年，我們確實從供應商那裡收到了 45 輛這樣的卡車，完全按照計劃進行。對這些我很滿意。他們不僅去了 Fort Hills，還去了我們的基地工廠，在 1 月底前收到了 4 輛，其餘的將在 2 月底前抵達。設備交付完全按計劃進行。

And we're really starting to see the productivities in the mines come up with that. It's about getting the right class of equipment, ultra-class equipment, in the right places in the mines to generate maximum efficiency and move those tons at the lowest unit costs that we can possible.

我們確實開始看到礦山生產力隨之提高。關鍵在於將合適等級的設備、超一流的設備安裝在礦井中的正確位置，以產生最大效率，並以盡可能最低的單位成本運輸這些貨物。

So we're starting to see that, and you see that show up in the cost performance of the company through 2024. It's showing up at the bottom line. It's about mining efficiency at scale to deliver big production volumes, but also to do it in the most efficient way.

因此，我們開始看到這一點，而且您會看到這一點體現在公司到 2024 年的成本表現中。它出現在底線上。這不僅關乎大規模採礦效率，以實現大產量，還要以最有效的方式進行。

Peter, also comment on autonomous implementation. That's kind of the other big part of your strategy. Where are you on that?

彼得，也對自主實施進行了評論。這是你的策略的另一個重要部分。你對此有何看法？

Yeah, we've set out our plan last year to have all of the ore delivery at base plants under autonomous trucking. That was completed in December. So happy to see all of the ore that is delivered to the crushers at base plant by the end of 2024 is done by autonomous trucking.

是的，我們去年就制定了計劃，將所有礦石運送到基地工廠，都採用自動駕駛卡車進行運輸。這項工作已於 12 月完成。很高興看到到 2024 年底運送到基地工廠破碎機的所有礦石都是透過自動駕駛卡車運輸的。

We also set an objective to have 91 trucks converted over to autonomous operation by the end of the year. And that was also accomplished. And now sets base plants, Millennium Mine and North Steepbank, has the single largest deployment of autonomous trucks anywhere in the world.

我們也設定了一個目標，到今年年底讓 91 輛卡車實現自動駕駛。而這也已經實現了。目前，其基地工廠 Millennium Mine 和 North Steepbank 已擁有全球最大的自動駕駛卡車部署。

And so we're really pleased with the implementation of that technology, but perhaps even more so our ability to really fine tune all of the variables to make sure that we're moving those tons as efficiently as possible. It is really next level, and the team's done some fantastic work.

因此，我們對該技術的實施感到非常滿意，但或許更讓我們高興的是，我們能夠真正微調所有變量，以確保盡可能有效地運輸這些貨物。這確實是更高水平，而且團隊做了一些出色的工作。

Again, similar to what we're doing in production, where's the bottleneck, how can we overcome that with engineering solutions, with operational techniques and procedures, and really getting the delivery out of that system that we expect.

再次，與我們在生產中所做的類似，瓶頸在哪裡，我們如何透過工程解決方案、操作技術和程序來克服它，並真正從系統中獲得我們期望的交付。

And the way I would ask you to look at that is in our May investor deck, we had the fewer trucks, bigger trucks, autonomous trucks were kind of a core of Peter's improvement strategy. 2024 was -- we had the buildup curve, the trucks arrived throughout the years, the conversion to autonomous arrived throughout the year.

我想請大家看看我們五月的投資者演示文稿，其中提到了更少的卡車、更大的卡車和自動駕駛卡車，這些都是彼得改進戰略的核心。 2024 年是——我們有了成長曲線，卡車在過去幾年問世，自動駕駛汽車的轉型也在全年實現。

So now as we get into 2025, particularly here in the first month or so, all of that will be in place, and you'll see a full year of the value creation from that, whereas in 2024, you only saw a partial year as that buildup occurred.

因此，現在當我們進入 2025 年時，特別是在第一個月左右，所有這些都將到位，您將看到整整一年的價值創造，而在 2024 年，您只能看到這種積累發生的部分年份。

Great. No, I really appreciate that color and that context as well. My second question, frankly, focuses more on turnaround. So you have some, obviously, some major planned turnarounds coming up later this year, including the U1 coke drum replacement program. Can you talk to what some of the steps or measures you've put in place that drive cost controls as well as moderates downtime risk, especially as it relates to this very significant project and relating to the 91-day turnaround?

偉大的。不，我確實很欣賞那種顏色和那種背景。坦白說，我的第二個問題更關注扭轉局面。因此，顯然，今年稍後將有一些重大的計劃性轉變，包括 U1 焦炭塔更換計劃。您能否談談您採取了哪些步驟或措施來控製成本並降低停機風險，特別是與這個非常重要的項目以及 91 天的周轉時間相關的步驟或措施？

Certainly, Dennis. I'm going to turn it over to Shelley here in a second, but I think it's, you know, one of the things as we put out our guidance and look at the year '25, it is a heavier planned maintenance year, both in the upstream and then, of course, some material turnarounds in Edmonton in particular.

當然，丹尼斯。我馬上就把話題交給雪萊，但我認為，正如我們發布的指導意見和展望 25 年時所說，這是一個計劃維護工作更為繁重的年份，無論是在上游，當然，尤其是埃德蒙頓的一些重大周轉。

So how '25 shapes out is we'll have much better sense as the year goes on and some of this work is completed. The coke drum replacements at the base plant are probably perhaps the biggest event of the year. The last time we did it was kind of the same year Moses parted the Red Sea. This was a long time ago. These things last 50-plus years, but Shelley and her team are leading that, driving that.

那麼，隨著時間的推移和部分工作的完成，我們將對 25 年的規劃有更清晰的認識。基地工廠的焦炭塔更換可能是今年最大的事件。我們上一次這樣做大概是摩西分開紅海的那一年。這已是很久以前的事了。這些事情持續了 50 多年，但雪萊和她的團隊正在引領和推動它。

So Shelley, offer some specific comments on that work.

所以雪萊，請對這項工作提出一些具體的評論。

Yeah, for sure. So we've been working on the coke drum replacement project actually for quite a few years to this point, just to give you a sense of the size of that project.

是的，當然。所以到目前為止，我們實際上已經致力於焦炭塔更換專案好幾年了，只是為了讓您了解專案的規模。

In total, it's about 2.8 million hours to complete the entire project. We've already completed 2.3 million of those hours. So coming into 2025, it's actually a small scope. There's only about 500,000 hours left, albeit it's the critical scope of the actual drum replacement in the turnaround.

總的來說，完成整個專案大約需要280萬小時。我們已經完成了 230 萬個小時。所以到 2025 年，它實際上是一個小範圍。儘管這是周轉過程中實際更換鼓的關鍵範圍，但只剩下大約 50 萬小時了。

So to your point, we've had extensive reviews. We've had extensive project planning sessions. We've got our own internal experts deeply involved in the project. And we've also brought in external cold eyes, folks who have done this type of work before, people that have experience replacing coke drums in other plants around the world.

對於您所說，我們已經進行了廣泛的審查。我們已經進行了廣泛的專案規劃會議。我們自己的內部專家已深入參與該專案。我們也引進了外部的冷靜人士，以前做過這類工作的人們，有在世界各地其他工廠更換焦炭塔經驗的人們。

So we're really bringing the best of the best of what we have internally as well as externally, just to crawl all over this project and make sure we're set up and ready to go.

因此，我們確實集中了我們內部和外部的最佳資源，只是為了全面了解這個項目，確保我們已準備就緒，可以開始了。

In terms of actual kind of project readiness, we're in really good shape. We're really happy with how we exited last year. We're slightly ahead of plan. All the coke drums are on site now. We've put our hands on them. All the major equipment is on site.

就實際的專案準備情況而言，我們的狀況非常好。我們對去年的退出方式感到非常滿意。我們比計劃稍微提早了一點。目前所有焦炭塔均已運抵現場。我們已經著手處理這些問題了。所有主要設備均已到位。

And we've also gone so far as to build some kind of practice mock-up structures so that our maintenance personnel, they're practicing on them, as well as our operations personnel are also able to kind of train and practice on new equipment. So we feel like we're in good shape. It's definitely a big critical piece of work for us this year, but we're definitely watching it very closely.

我們甚至建造了某種練習模型結構，以便我們的維護人員可以在其上練習，我們的操作人員也可以在新設備上進行培訓和練習。因此我們感覺我們的狀況很好。這對我們來說絕對是一個今年至關重要的工作，但我們肯定會密切關注它。

And a bit more than a year ago, this was more than a 100-day work scope in our estimation. But the turnaround improvements that both Shelly and Dave are leading across enterprise have found the ability to further improve that, optimize that to this current 91-day schedule.

而一年多前，我們估計這是一個超過 100 天的工作範圍。但 Shelly 和 Dave 在整個企業內領導的扭轉局面的改進措施已經找到了進一步改善這一點的能力，並將其優化到目前的 91 天時間表。

So we've built in the improvement we're seeing, but I wouldn't say it's a fingers-crossed kind of thing, but we've got the critical work is ahead of us, and they'll be all -- the high fives will be later in the year when we complete that.

因此，我們已經看到了改進，但我不會說這是一種祈禱的事情，但我們面前還有關鍵的工作，當我們在今年晚些時候完成這些工作時，他們會為我們擊掌慶祝。

Manav Gupta, UBS.

瑞銀的 Manav Gupta。

Good morning, guys. Congratulations on all the milestones. My question here is that like nine months ago, you kind of set a target of lowering your all-in break even by $10, and I think in the first year, you were looking for $4 to $5, and then the balance between the remaining $2. You're already at seven, which is very commendable. I'm just trying to understand, like would you also look at a situation where this can go more than 10, so once you get to year end two, could you make it $10 or from $10 to $12?

大家早安。恭喜您取得的所有里程碑。我的問題是，就像九個月前一樣，您設定了一個目標，將全押盈虧平衡點降低 10 美元，我認為在第一年，您尋求的是 4 到 5 美元，然後再尋求剩餘 2 美元之間的平衡。你已經七歲了，這非常值得稱讚。我只是想要了解，您是否也會考慮這個數字可能超過 10 的情況，那麼一旦到了第二年末，您能否將其設為 10 美元或從 10 美元變為 12 美元？

And similarly, from your normalized free cash flow assumptions, you're almost 70% at your target already at the end of year one. So as you work through the system, could there be upside to these numbers that you gave us about 9 or 10 months ago?

同樣，從您標準化的自由現金流假設來看，您在第一年末就已經達到目標的近 70%。那麼，當您透過這個系統工作時，您在大約 9 或 10 個月前給我們的這些數字是否還有上升空間？

Manav, based on your question, you are qualified to be one of my bosses on our Board of Directors because they're asking me the same thing.

Manav，根據您的問題，您有資格成為我們董事會的老闆之一，因為他們問我同樣的問題。

And I think what's important is when you break down the three-year plan had very tangible activities that built up to the $4 in the first year, $2 in the second year, and $4 in the third year. The achieving the $7 in the first year, it's a combination. We did a few things earlier than we expected, but also the delivered benefit on other things was more than we expected.

我認為重要的是，當你分解三年計劃時，會有非常切實的活動，第一年累積 4 美元，第二年累積 2 美元，第三年累積 4 美元。第一年就實現 7 美元，這是一個綜合體。我們做的一些事情比我們預期的要早，而且其他事情帶來的收益也超出了我們的預期。

So our inventory of continued improvement largely remains. I used that tangible example of Peter's trucks. We will now have a full year benefit of that, which we did not have in '24.

因此，我們持續改進的庫存基本上保留了下來。我使用了彼得的卡車這個具體的例子。我們現在將獲得全年的福利，這是我們 24 年所沒有的。

So does the $10 grow? Quite frankly, we haven't spent a lot of time recalculating that. We've spent more time with our head down, tail up, delivering value. And I think time will tell what it ultimately is. I will tell you, I'm encouraged that the value creation that we're not depleting our inventory of ideas. As we capture things, we are seeing new ideas, new opportunities to add to the list. So our own ambition -- I don't have a number for you, but our own ambition as a result of 2024's performance has been elevated.

那麼10美元會增值嗎？坦白說，我們並沒有花很多時間重新計算這一點。我們花了更多時間埋頭苦幹，創造價值。我認為時間會告訴我們最終結果如何。我會告訴你，我很高興看到我們創造的價值並沒有耗盡我們的想法庫存。當我們捕捉到事物時，我們會發現新的想法、新的機會可以添加到清單中。因此，我們自己的目標——我沒有一個數字可以告訴你，但由於 2024 年的表現，我們的目標已經提升。

Perfect. My quick follow-up is you guys have a very informed view on refining. You started the year on somewhat of a bearish note. It's been very well until now. Some of the global capacity additions got delayed. Some capacity is already going offline. And diesel cracks are moving up, which obviously helps you out a lot. So just trying to understand from you, like six to nine months outlook that you have for refining.

完美的。我的快速跟進是你們對於煉油有著非常明智的看法。你以某種悲觀的語氣開始了新的一年。到現在為止一切都很好。全球部分產能增加計畫延後。部分產能已經下線。柴油裂解價格正在上漲，這顯然對你有很大幫助。所以只是想從您那裡了解一下，例如您對六到九個月的煉油前景的展望。

Dave, you want to offer a -- it's speculative, give a couple of quick comments.

戴夫，你想提供一個 - 這是推測性的，請給出一些簡短的評論。

I mean, I would say there were a few years over the past few years where I'd say the refining margins were above where you'd expect, kind of unusually high. And I'd call them what we call a lower -- everyone's calling low refining margins now are probably more typical. I think there's potentially some upside into the next year, but at the end of the day, we're focused on winning in any environment here at Suncor.

我的意思是，我想說過去幾年裡，煉油利潤率高於你的預期，有點異常高。我稱之為較低的——現在每個人都稱之為低煉油利潤率，這可能更為典型。我認為明年可能會有一些上行空間，但最終，我們專注於在 Suncor 的任何環境中取得勝利。

Our integrated model helps us win when the cracks are low, helps us take advantage of the market when the cracks are high. And we continue to optimize that integration over time. We're putting more throughput, which is lowering our dollar per barrel costs. We're optimizing our business across our portfolio, sales and marketing business. We're growing that to have more profitable domestic sales. We're growing our trading business to make more money selling direct to customers. And we're really optimizing our integration throughout the downstream.

我們的綜合模式幫助我們在裂縫較少時取勝，幫助我們在裂縫較大時佔據市場優勢。隨著時間的推移，我們會持續優化這種整合。我們正在提高產量，從而降低每桶的成本。我們正在優化我們的業務組合、銷售和行銷業務。我們正在擴大這一規模，以獲得更有利可圖的國內銷售。我們正在擴大我們的貿易業務，以便透過直接向客戶銷售賺取更多利潤。我們確實正在優化整個下游的整合。

So really our focus is we want to win in any environment. We'll see where the cracks go. I can't really speculate on where they'll go, but yeah, as you pointed out, there may be a little upside and we're ready to take advantage of that.

因此，我們的真正重點是希望在任何環境中取得勝利。我們將看看裂縫出現在哪裡。我真的無法推測他們會去哪裡，但是，正如你所指出的，可能會有一點好處，我們已經準備好利用這一點了。

And I made the comment earlier about the teams, the integrated teams, whether it's the crew slates we produce or the products. But I think that extends further into Dave's team, that we have kind of a balance of the east and west in our refining capacity. The markets and the growth opportunities vary between east and west. But increasingly Dave's folks are figuring out ways to get product that may be manufactured in the west, get it delivered in the east or vice versa.

我之前對團隊、綜合團隊做出了評論，無論是我們製作的船員名單還是產品。但我認為這進一步延伸到了戴夫的團隊，我們的煉油能力在東西方之間取得了平衡。東西方的市場和成長機會各有不同。但戴夫的員工正在越來越多地尋找方法，將西方生產的產品運送到東方，或反之亦然。

And I think that's going to allow us that whatever the market environment is, we're well positioned with market know-how, with logistics, and then the capabilities of our asset base to maximize whatever value is there in the market, we're going to get it.

我認為無論市場環境如何，這都將使我們佔據有利地位，憑藉市場知識、物流以及我們的資產基礎能力，我們可以最大限度地提高市場價值，我們將獲得它。

Menno Hulshof, TD Securities.

道明證券的 Menno Hulshof。

Thanks, and good morning, everyone. I'll start with a question on consolidation, since we've seen quite a bit of it in recent quarters, including your consolidation of Fort Hills and CNQ's consolidation of the [AOSP] through two transactions and high level that that leaves Syncrude. And I understand that you can't speak on behalf of your partners, but how much time do you spend thinking about Syncrude consolidation these days? And I suppose along the same vein, how active is the Lease 29 discussion at the moment? Thanks.

謝謝，大家早安。我首先要問一個關於合併的問題，因為我們在最近幾季已經看到了很多這樣的情況，包括你們對 Fort Hills 的合併，以及 CNQ 透過兩筆交易對 [AOSP] 的合併，以及高層所說的剩下 Syncrude 的合併。我明白您不能代表您的合作夥伴發言，但最近您花了多少時間考慮 Syncrude 的合併問題呢？我想，同樣地，目前關於第 29 號租約的討論有多活躍？謝謝。

Menno, for the last year or two, we've been heavily focused on that 99% of our workforce that drive trucks, operate shovels, run refineries, and get things right. And as we have increasingly achieved that, that allows that 1% of us to think about how do we add shareholder value long term?

門諾，在過去的一兩年裡，我們一直將重點放在 99% 的駕駛卡車、操作鏟車、經營煉油廠和做好事的員工身上。隨著我們逐漸實現這一目標，我們當中的那 1% 人開始思考如何才能長期增加股東價值？

And certainly, with the integrated nature of our asset base, you mentioned Fort Hills, that is a tangible example. So we're going to be continuing to look at those opportunities that can add value based -- that perhaps the current owner doesn't have the opportunity to achieve, but through our ownership operatorship that we can achieve.

當然，鑑於我們資產基礎的綜合性，您提到的 Fort Hills 就是一個明顯的例子。因此，我們將繼續尋找那些可以增加價值的機會——也許當前所有者沒有機會實現，但透過我們的所有權運營，我們可以實現。

So we look at any and all of those opportunities. It always comes down to do you have a willing buyer, a willing seller. Obviously, I can't comment on any specific assets, but it's about creation of a unique level of value where it's not just about a speculation on what oil price is going to be. That's where we're focused.

因此，我們會考慮所有這些機會。最終結果總是取決於你是否有願意的買家和願意的賣家。顯然，我無法對任何特定資產發表評論，但這是為了創造一個獨特的價值水平，而不僅僅是對油價的猜測。這就是我們關注的重點。

Menno, it's Kris here. And just on that last part of your question around Lease 29, just come back to what we've been talking about for the last 12 to 18 months, we've set ourselves up with our business in terms of our bitumen supply with our current assets and leases, as well as the leases that we have the opportunity to develop.

門諾，我是克里斯。關於租約 29 的最後一部分，請回顧我們過去 12 到 18 個月一直在談論的內容，我們已經根據現有資產和租約以及我們有機會開發的租約建立了瀝青供應業務。

Lease 29 is something that's been talked about in the market a long time. Certainly, it is an opportunity for a mine extension. There's always conversations in the background that happen around those types of things. But for us, Lease 29 is not the focus. We have more than ample bitumen supply in our portfolio to keep our upgraders full and lots of bitumen development opportunities going forward.

租約 29 是市場上討論已久的事情。無疑，這也是礦井擴建的機會。背景中總會有圍繞這些事情的對話。但對我們來說，第 29 號租約並不是重點。我們的產品組合中擁有充足的瀝青供應，可以確保我們的升級產品充分供應，並且未來將有大量的瀝青開發機會。

Terrific. Thanks. Thanks for that. And then maybe the second question is egress related, since you often emphasize your marketing and sales and trading capabilities as an advantage.

了不起。謝謝。謝謝。那麼也許第二個問題與出口有關，因為您經常強調您的行銷，銷售和交易能力作為優勢。

So in the context of tariffs risk and with the understanding that you're far less exposed than most, how much ability does Suncor have to shift cargoes away from the US and US markets and West Coast markets in particular, especially given the potential for an uptick in throughput at the Westridge Marine Terminal towards the middle of this year, I believe?

那麼，在關稅風險的背景下，並且考慮到您的風險敞口遠低於大多數公司，森科爾有多大能力將貨物從美國市場，特別是西海岸市場轉移出去，尤其是考慮到今年年中 Westridge 海運碼頭的吞吐量有可能上升，我認為？

Well, I would say that I don't know that anyone on the planet knows exactly what's going to happen on tariffs. So we won't -- I won't speculate on that.

嗯，我想說我不知道這個世界上是否有人確切知道關稅會發生什麼。所以我們不會——我不會對此進行猜測。

But then if I take it more directly to your question, the kind of who wins and who loses in this. And I think when you -- all Canadian companies, they're going to experience the impact differently. If you're a heavy oil producer that moves your crude across the border, that's one thing.

但如果我更直接回答你的問題，那就是在這件事上誰贏了，誰輸了。我認為，所有加拿大公司都會感受到不同的影響。如果你是一家重油生產商，需要將原油運過邊境，那就是一回事。

But if you get into our situation, probably what, 60%, 65%of our barrels stay north of the border and they either go through our refining network, other refineries of customers and or off of the coast. So that's a high fraction. We have a large Canadian refining footprint. And I believe among our peers, we have more capacity to get crude off of either coast than the other peers who also have those Canadian refining footprint, et cetera, et cetera.

但如果你處於我們的情況，大概有 60% 到 65% 的石油都留在邊境以北，它們要么通過我們的煉油網絡，要么通過客戶的其他煉油廠，要么通過沿海地區。因此，這一比例很高。我們在加拿大擁有廣泛的煉油業務。而且我相信，在我們的同行中，與其他擁有加拿大煉油足跡等的同行相比，我們擁有更大的從海岸獲取原油的能力。

So if you march on down, this is what gets back into that fundamental, that kind of integrated nature of our asset base gives us more resiliency, kind of a natural hedge in whatever the market environment, upstream, downstream and or tariffs would play. We believe in free trade. We think the US needs us. We need the US But if we were in a world of tariffs, I like our position relative to our peer group.

因此，如果你繼續往下走，這就是回到基本面的原因，我們資產基礎的這種綜合性質為我們提供了更大的彈性，無論市場環境、上游、下游和關稅如何，這都是一種自然的對沖。我們相信自由貿易。我們認為美國需要我們。我們需要美國，但如果我們處在一個關稅的世界裡，我喜歡我們相對於同行的地位。

Thanks. Thanks for that, Rich. Maybe just on the Westridge Marine Terminal, is that expansion -- does that -- does mid-year sound about right? If I can put you on the spot?

謝謝。謝謝你，Rich。也許只是在 Westridge 海運碼頭，那是擴建——那是——年中聽起來合適嗎？我可以讓你當場回答嗎？

Sorry, Menno, can you repeat that? Sorry.

抱歉，門諾，你能再說一次嗎？對不起。

Yeah, you broke out a little bit there.

是的，你那裡有點爆發了。

Sorry about that. What just in terms of the Westridge Marine Terminal, is -- does that sound in terms of the expansion of throughput? Does mid-year sound about right?

很抱歉。就 Westridge 海運碼頭而言，這聽起來是否有助於擴大吞吐量？年中聽起來合適嗎？

Oh, sorry, are you talking about the Westridge dock at the TMX?

哦，抱歉，您說的是 TMX 的 Westridge 碼頭嗎？

Yeah, that's right.

是的，沒錯。

Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. I think there's a couple of things at Westridge dock that the TMX is working on. One is lighting to allow ships to load at night or dock at night. That'll help drive some expansion. And then and that's on track to happen very soon. And then later in the in the future will be some capability to dredge under the Narrows Bridge, which will allow large cargos.

是的。是的。好的。是的。我認為 TMX 正在 Westridge 碼頭進行一些工作。一是照明，使船舶在夜間裝貨或夜間停靠。這將有助於推動一些擴張。然後這一切都會很快發生。將來，我們將有能力在納羅斯橋下進行疏浚，以便運輸大型貨物。

We were pretty happy with the took a little couple months to work out the logistics on the Westridge dock. But it's a -- we knew it was going to be a busy logistics situation. The team's done -- we've worked with the TMX team. Others have worked and we really -- we think the logistics are working out really well over there.

我們很高興花了幾個月的時間來解決 Westridge 碼頭的物流問題。但我們知道這將是一個繁忙的物流情況。團隊已經完成 - 我們已經與 TMX 團隊合作。其他人也已經開展了工作，我們認為那裡的後勤工作進展得非常順利。

John Royall, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的約翰‧羅亞爾 (John Royall)。

Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So my first question is on the production guidance for '25. It's flat at the midpoint with '24 is actual with -- '24 obviously being a terrific operational year. And I know you had some incremental turnaround activity in '25, which Rich mentioned, which is probably why we're not seeing more growth this year.

你好。早安.感謝您回答我的問題。所以我的第一個問題是關於'25的生產指導。它在中間點持平，而 24 年實際上是 — — 24 年顯然是一個非常棒的運營年。我知道你們在 25 年進行了一些漸進式扭轉活動，正如 Rich 所提到的，這可能是為什麼我們今年沒有看到更多成長的原因。

But is it fair to think that it's the midpoint of the range is perhaps assuming operations and reliability aren't quite as strong as they were in '24 and where everything kind of seemed to go right? If operations do come in somewhere to '24, should we be thinking kind of more high end or maybe even above?

但是，是否可以公平地認為，它是範圍的中點，可能假設營運和可靠性不如 24 年那麼強勁，而且一切似乎都進展順利？如果營運確實在 24 天內完成，我們是否應該考慮更高端甚至更高的價格？

John, I think you called it right when we put out guidance, of course, we didn't quite have the fourth quarter. And I got to tell you, the team, the team kicked ass in December. It was higher than I thought. At the time we put it out, I didn't think you would be right at the midpoint. Quite frankly, I thought 2024 results would be a little bit lower than they were just because of where things were tracking.

約翰，我認為當我們發布指引時你說得對，當然，我們還沒有達到第四季度的水平。我得告訴你，這支球隊，這支球隊在 12 月表現非常出色。它比我想像的還要高。當我們把它推出時，我不認為你會處於中間點。坦白說，我認為 2024 年的結果會比現在略低一些，這只是因為事情的進展。

But I think the big thing in 2025 is this is a question. Once Shelley gets all this coke drum replacement done, I'll be in a much more confident position to answer. If that goes as we would hope and expect and all of our teams are focused, you're probably right. We're probably toward the high end of that. If it doesn't, because the last time it was completed was 50-plus years ago, that would move it around in that.

但我認為，2025 年的重大問題是，這是一個問題。一旦雪萊完成所有焦炭塔的更換工作，我就可以更有自信地回答問題了。如果一切正如我們所希望和期望的那樣，而且我們所有的團隊都集中精力，那麼你可能是對的。我們可能已經接近這個水平的高端了。如果沒有的話，因為上次完工已經是 50 多年前了，所以它將會在那裡移動。

So we've got fundamentally the same asset base. So we're assuming continued high performance. We have not -- the company today, we're not saying, well, we did really good this year. We're probably not going to do that again next year. That is not the mindset, the culture of this organization. But it's really the maintenance work that it kind of gives us a bit more of the unknown.

因此，從根本上來說，我們擁有相同的資產基礎。因此我們假設其將持續保持高效能。我們還沒有——今天的公司，我們並沒有說，嗯，我們今年做得很好。明年我們可能不會再這樣做了。這不是該組織的思維方式和文化。但事實上，維護工作為我們帶來了更多未知數。

Thank you. And then my follow up on Firebag, it's been an asset where you increase production pretty significantly. Can you talk about the types of things you've done there? And is there maybe more kind of low-hanging fruit type of potential in that asset from here? Or maybe even something that could require some capital that could move that production up even more? Should we think of it as kind of having hit its true potential here?

謝謝。然後我對 Firebag 進行了跟進，發現它是一項可以顯著提高產量的資產。你能談談你在那裡做過哪些事嗎？那麼從現在起，這種資產是否還有更多唾手可得的潛力？或者甚至可能需要一些資本來進一步提高產量？我們是否應該認為它已經發揮了真正的潛力？

Well, the gentleman I'm going to turn this to didn't know I'm going to turn this to him because he's now our Chief HR Officer. But for the last several years, he's been driving the improvement at Firebag. Adam, can you -- what the hell have you done over the last couple of years at Firebag that's added 35,000 barrels a day in two years without any growth investment?

好吧，我要把這個轉交給的那位先生並不知道我要把這個轉交給他，因為他現在是我們的首席人力資源官。但在過去幾年裡，他一直在推動 Firebag 的改進。亞當，你能——過去幾年你在 Firebag 到底做了什麼，在沒有任何成長投資的情況下，兩年內每天增加了 35,000 桶的產量？

You bet, Rich. Thanks for the question. I mean, just building on Richard's comments, the mindset and the culture at the Firebag asset is consistent with the rest of the organization.

當然，里奇。謝謝你的提問。我的意思是，僅基於理查德的評論，Firebag 資產的思維方式和文化與組織的其他部分是一致的。

So what I mean by that is the teams are constantly looking for what is actually constraining the production and what can we do in the short term to safely unlock further production. That is the focus at Firebag, which is consistent with the rest of the organization.

所以我的意思是，團隊一直在尋找真正限制生產的因素，以及我們可以在短期內做些什麼來安全地釋放進一步的生產。這是 Firebag 的關注重點，與該組織的其他部分一致。

So a couple of examples. We had a water constraint, small piping arrangement to unlock water management, that was completed. We had a PSV constraints. We added a fifth PSV, remove that constraint that was completed to unlock further production.

舉幾個例子。我們有一個水限制，一個小型管道佈置以解鎖水管理，已經完成。我們受到了 PSV 的限制。我們添加了第五個 PSV，消除了已完成的限制，以解鎖進一步的生產。

We are constantly looking for other opportunities to do that. And I'm confident that the team has a long list of opportunities to further unlock and increase production further. And you see that in December with a 250,000 barrel per day production rate at Firebag still.

我們一直在尋找其他機會來實現這一目標。我相信，團隊還有大量機會來進一步釋放潛力並提高產量。你會看到，12 月份 Firebag 的日產量為 25 萬桶。

So John, just a quick add to that. The -- we need to be sure we stay well long in terms of capacity long as we increment the facility capacity. So Shelly's got a drilling team and others that are looking at, okay, we're probably going to have to add some well pads quicker because of the capacity. That's a great problem to have in the resource base at Firebag is high quality and long life. So there are a lot of opportunities there. But this is a fun one for us because this is our most -- single most valuable asset corporate wide.

所以約翰，我只是想快速補充一下。只要我們增加設施容量，我們就需要確保在容量方面保持良好的狀態。因此，Shelly 有一個鑽井隊和其他人正在考慮，好吧，由於容量原因，我們可能必須更快地添加一些井場。Firebag 資源庫的巨大問題在於高品質和長壽命。所以那裡有很多機會。但這對我們來說很有趣，因為這是我們公司範圍內最有價值的資產。

Adam Wijaya, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的亞當‧維賈亞 (Adam Wijaya)。

Good morning, Rich and team, and thank you for taking my questions. They want to start on the retail side of the business. Just going back to the Investor Day in May. Where do we stand as it relates to some of the margin improvement targets there for this part of the business? And then can you comment maybe on what a surprise to the upside or downside versus prior expectations? Thanks.

早安，Rich 和團隊，感謝你們回答我的問題。他們想從零售業務開始起步。回顧五月的投資者日。就該部分業務的利潤率改善目標而言，我們的現況如何？然後您能否評論一下與先前的預期相比，什麼是意外的上升或下降？謝謝。

Thanks, Adam. I think last time I saw you, I was sitting next to you in Miami, if I remember right. Dave, do you want to comment quickly on how we're doing on the retail growth plan?

謝謝，亞當。如果我沒記錯的話，上次見到你時我正坐在邁阿密你旁邊。戴夫，你想快速評論一下我們的零售成長計畫的進展嗎？

Sure, absolutely. And the retail growth plan is one of the things that completely underpins our overall sales and marketing growth. And as you know, we continue to grow our sales and marketing volumes with 600,000 barrels a day for the year. We shared in May 21 plans to high grade our Petro-Canada network, leveraging strategic partnerships and deliver [$200 million] by the end of '26. We are still on track to do that.

當然，絕對是如此。零售成長計劃是完全支撐我們整體銷售和行銷成長的因素之一。如您所知，我們今年的銷售和行銷量持續成長，每天達到 60 萬桶。我們在 5 月 21 日分享了提升我們的加拿大石油公司網絡的計劃，利用戰略合作夥伴關係並在 26 年底前交付 [2 億美元]。我們仍在按計劃實現這一目標。

And in fact, we're evolving our plan as we continue to learn. It's a pretty competitive market out there, as you see with other folks who are reporting retail earnings. It's a competitive market out there and we continue to evolve our plans. We're enhancing our quick-serve restaurant offerings with new A&W sites, new express format concepts to get more restaurants and more sites.

事實上，我們在不斷學習的同時還在不斷改進我們的計劃。正如您從其他報告零售收益的公司看到的那樣，這是一個競爭相當激烈的市場。這是一個競爭激烈的市場，我們正在不斷改進我們的計劃。我們正在透過新的 A&W 站點和新的快捷模式概念來增強我們的快餐餐廳服務，以涵蓋更多的餐廳和站點。

And we're seeing the results. Our retail pumping costs are actually down year on year and our same site store volumes are up year on year. We're just getting started.

我們已經看到了結果。我們的零售泵送成本實際上逐年下降，而同一站點商店的銷售量卻逐年增加。我們才剛開始。

If you look around major markets in Canada right now, you'll see a bunch of Petro-Canada sites with fences around them. That's because we're rebuilding the sites. And really, our goal is to offer -- full offer locations that are just simply better than what our competitors are offering. That'll give us better margins, lower pumping costs, and retail sites will stay on the test of time.

如果你現在環顧加拿大的主要市場，你會看到許多加拿大石油公司的站點周圍都有圍欄。這是因為我們正在重建這些網站。實際上，我們的目標是提供比我們的競爭對手更好的全方位服務。這將為我們提供更好的利潤、更低的泵送成本，零售網站也將經受住時間的考驗。

We're also working on our Canadian Tire partnership. That's a great partnership. We're looking to convert 200 sites over the next couple of years and increase our sales volume by about [1 billion liters] a year. So lots going on in the retail side, still on track.

我們也正在致力於與加拿大輪胎公司的合作。這是一次非常棒的合作關係。我們希望在未來幾年內改造 200 個站點，並將每年的銷售量提高約 [10 億公升]。零售方面有很多事情正在發生，並且仍在按計劃進行。

And I just add to that. It's about value and volume and we're getting the volume, but we're also getting it value at the high end of the food chain. The retail, the branded sites, I won't repeat Dave's examples, but it's kind of that two-pronged approach.

我只是想補充一下。這關乎價值和數量，我們不僅獲得了數量，還獲得了食物鏈高端的價值。零售、品牌網站，我不會重複戴夫的例子，但這是雙管齊下的方法。

And we had a little bit of a bobble in mid 2023 with the cyberattack that we kind of went through. But ever since then, as we've come out of it, we're right back on the plan we've outlined. And I think in an uncertain world that having that retail network and those high-value distribution channels, that is also a source of competitive advantage.

2023 年中，我們遭遇了網路攻擊，有點不太順利。但自此以後，我們走出了困境，又回到了我們所製定的計劃。我認為，在不確定的世界裡，擁有零售網路和高價值通路也是競爭優勢的來源。

Great, that's super helpful. And yes, Rich, your memory is correct on Miami. Maybe just my follow up is just on when we look at 2024 versus 2023 results, see that total operating, selling and general expenses were down about $300 million. Can you touch maybe a little bit on some of the moving pieces there and then any color on expectations for 2025 as it relates to the rate of change from 2024? Thank you.

太棒了，這非常有幫助。是的，里奇，你對邁阿密的記憶是正確的。也許我的後續行動只是當我們查看 2024 年與 2023 年的結果時，發現總營運、銷售和一般費用下降了約 3 億美元。您能否稍微談談那裡的一些變動因素，然後談談對 2025 年的預期與 2024 年的變化率的關係？謝謝。

I think expense management is one of those things that I commented on. It's attention to detail. It's rigor. It's spending money like it's not your own. It's someone else's and you're accountable. I think expense management is as much a representation of the culture of an organization as almost any other measure.

我認為費用管理是我評論過的事情之一。這是對細節的關注。它很嚴謹。這就像花掉不是自己的錢一樣。這是別人的，你必須負責。我認為費用管理與幾乎所有其他指標一樣，能體現一個組織的文化。

And so what you're seeing here is this evolving, high performance results-oriented culture at Suncor being developed. Both Dave, Peter, and Adam commented on how do we unlock capacity without spending money? Low, no cost barrels. You saw that.

您在這裡看到的是 Suncor 正在不斷發展、以高績效為導向的文化。Dave、Peter 和 Adam 都評論了我們如何在不花錢的情況下釋放產能？低成本、無成本的桶子。你看到了。

The other area I would say is getting more rigorous about the value of what we spend, the risk-based assessment of as opposed to going through maintenance at a regularly scheduled interval, independent of what the condition of a piece of equipment is, critically looking at it and say, what do we need to do on it. So it's just it's rigor and discipline.

我想說的另一個方面是更嚴格地評估我們所花費的價值，進行基於風險的評估，而不是定期進行維護，不管設備的狀況如何，都要嚴格地審視它並說，我們需要對它做些什麼。所以這只是嚴謹和紀律。

And the $1 billion we took out year on year ex the Fort Hills acquisition, it exceeded my expectations. That was more than I thought. But here again, I think it's kind of, you know, I'm a broken record here. I don't think we're done yet. Will the rate of change in '25 on absolute costs be the same as '24? I don't know. That's that's a pretty ambitious objective, but we're not done yet.

除了收購 Fort Hills 之外，我們去年的收益為 10 億美元，這超出了我的預期。這比我想像的還要多。但在這裡，我再次認為這有點像，你知道，我在這裡是一張破唱片。我認為我們還沒有完成。'25 年絕對成本的變化率會與 '24 年相同嗎？我不知道。這是一個非常雄心勃勃的目標，但我們尚未完成。

Doug Leggate, Wolfe Research.

道格‧萊格特（Doug Leggate），沃爾夫研究公司。

Thank you. Thanks, Rich, for having me on.

謝謝。謝謝 Rich 邀請我參加。

Rich, I don't want to go back to the 7 out of 10 question from earlier, but I do want to ask you about the production volumes, because you've already talked about Firebag ad nauseam, but you did say 100,000 barrels a day, you're clearly there. What do you think the volume trajectory can look like from the incremental line of sight you have on what happens next across the asset base?

里奇，我不想回到之前的那個 7/10 的問題，但我確實想問你關於產量的問題，因為你已經反复談論了 Firebag，但你確實說過每天 10 萬桶，你顯然已經達到了這個數字。從您對資產基礎下一步發展趨勢的漸進視野來看，您認為交易量軌跡會是什麼樣的？

Yeah, thanks, Doug. We got 82,000 barrels a day out of 108,000 in the first year. I tell you what, what we're doing, kind of a glimpse under where we've got more work going on. And you said Firebag ad nauseam, man, I can talk about Firebag all day long. So there's still growth there. So this whole idea of looking at the constraints, ensuring we have the well capacity, looking at the export pipelines, there's more there to be captured.

是的，謝謝，道格。第一年，我們每天生產 108,000 桶石油，其中 82,000 桶。我告訴您我們正在做什麼，讓您大致了解我們還在進行哪些工作。你還在不斷地重複談論 Firebag，夥計，我可以整天談論 Firebag。因此那裡仍有成長。因此，整個想法是考慮限制因素，確保我們擁有足夠的產能，考慮出口管道，這樣就能獲得更多的資源。

Some of the other areas, as we continue to execute the Fort Hills, the three-year plan. Now we're spending more time looking at years [4 through 44, not 1 through 3]. So looking at what we can do, we know we have a plant or two trains in that plant that when combined are more than the [194] nameplate capacity. So we're looking at what do we do -- what do we need to do to have the -- or delivery, to feed that beast at the rate at which can eat.

在其他一些地區，我們將繼續執行 Fort Hills 的三年計劃。現在我們花更多時間回顧過去[4 到 44，而不是 1 到 3]。因此，看看我們能做什麼，我們知道我們在該工廠擁有一列或兩列火車，當它們合併時，其容量超過了 [194] 銘牌容量。因此，我們正在研究我們該怎麼做——我們需要做什麼才能——或者說要交付什麼，才能以它能吃的速度餵養牠。

So those are probably two areas that offer the greatest potential that if we if we're sitting here, a year from now talking about blowing past, 108,000 barrels a day. Those are probably the two areas that I think my guess today that we would be highlighting that will allow us to drive further.

因此，這兩個地區可能是最具潛力的，如果我們坐在這裡，一年後談論每天產量突破 108,000 桶。我認為，這些可能是我們今天要重點強調的兩個領域，它們將使我們能夠取得更大的進步。

Okay, I appreciate that. I mean, the progress, obviously, since you've been there has been extraordinary, but there's always there's always someone out there trying to knock the story in some regards. And the thing that has come up again, as I'm sure you're aware, is this issue of base mine AARO liability long term.

好的，我很感激。我的意思是，顯然，自從你來到那裡以來，已經取得了非凡的進展，但總是有人試圖在某些方面打破這個故事。我相信您已經意識到了，再次出現的問題是關於基地礦井 AARO 長期責任的問題。

So I wonder if I could just ask you to frame on an annual basis, as I see it in the annual report is probably $400 million a year or something like that. Can you just frame for us how you think about that? How you think about managing it? And is it -- it sounds to me like it's relatively modest in the grand scheme of everything else that's going on. But just put some numbers around it for us on a discounted basis, if you can.

所以我想知道我是否可以請您按年度來製定，因為我在年度報告中看到，每年大概是 4 億美元或類似的數字。您能向我們簡單描述一下您對此的看法嗎？您認為該如何管理它？而且，在我看來，相對於正在發生的其他一切事情而言，這似乎算是相對溫和的。但如果可以的話，請以折扣價為我們提供一些數字。

Yeah, I'm going to ask Kris to comment on the numbers on it. But I think there's kind of two dimensions to it is the long life of the upgraders and the long-term bitumen supply. And part of that, it all intertwines together in terms of abandonment, reclamation, timing, and obligations. But Kris, comment on kind of -- as you said, kind of the moderately de minimis spend that goes on each year.

是的，我將請克里斯對這些數字作出評論。但我認為這有兩個方面：升級裝置的長壽命和長期的瀝青供應。其中的一部分，在放棄、回收、時間和義務方面都是交織在一起的。但是克里斯，請評論一下——正如你所說，每年都會有適度最低的支出。

Hey, Doug. And Doug, you put your finger on a key number that you see in our financials related to it.

嘿，道格。道格，您指出了我們財務報表中與此相關的一個關鍵數字。

So think about AARO this way. I mean, we have a number in there that shows the discounted AARO. That is over a very, very long period of time. So we have reclamation activities, reclamation, closure activities going on continually across our asset base up north, averaging about that $400 million or $500 million a year. Kind of I'll call it rateable spend. It might go up a little bit more in one year. It might actually be a bit lower in another year.

所以請這樣思考 AARO。我的意思是，我們有一個數字，顯示折扣後的 AARO。這已經是一段很長很長的時間了。因此，我們在北部的資產基地不斷進行復墾、關閉活動，平均每年約 4 億或 5 億美元。我將其稱為可評估支出。一年後，它可能還會上漲一點點。明年這個數字可能還會更低。

I can tell you that Peter Zebedee's team is doing a terrific job on working our mine and reclamation and our closure plans and actually continuing to optimize. It is an area of optimization opportunity as well.

我可以告訴你們，彼得·西庇太 (Peter Zebedee) 的團隊在我們的礦山開採、復墾和關閉計劃方面做得非常出色，而且實際上還在繼續優化。這也是一個優化機會的領域。

But think about this as kind of a very long-term rateable spend. Right. It isn't a case where you get to an end of mine life and you've got a big balloon of reclamation activity and cost that all of a sudden shows up. This is an activity which is very rateable over time. So we're very confident in the plans. We've got a lot of specific plans in place. And I think you can kind of just count on that sort of rateable approach to AARO and reclamation.

但請將其視為一種長期的可評估支出。正確的。這並不是說礦山開採壽命到了盡頭，然後突然出現大量的複墾活動和成本。這是一項隨著時間的推移而非常值得評估的活動。所以我們對這些計劃非常有信心。我們已經制定了很多具體計劃。我認為您可以依賴這種可評估的方法來實現 AARO 和復墾。

Peter, is there anything you want to add?

彼得，您還有什麼要補充嗎？

Maybe a couple of other things for perspective, Doug. It's not -- and another good example of Suncor integration now that we're operating multiple mine sites is that we've standardized engineering assumptions and our engineering planning for AARO across the asset base. So that certainly helped in making sure we've got our assumptions correct and that they're consistent.

也許還有其他一些事情可供參考，道格。事實並非如此——現在我們運營多個礦場，Suncor 整合的另一個很好的例子是，我們已經在整個資產基礎上標準化了工程假設和 AARO 的工程規劃。所以這肯定有助於確保我們的假設正確且一致。

The second part is beyond just the immediacy of improving our mining efficiency and the result on our bottom line, that also translates into AARO assumptions, because AARO at the end of the day, especially for a lot of these big mines, is about moving material, moving dirt and moving water. We do a lot of that today. So the efficiencies that we've driven into those activities today have ultimately resulted in reducing our AARO liability because our confidence in executing that type of work has increased tremendously.

第二部分不僅僅是提高我們的採礦效率和底線結果的直接性，這也轉化為 AARO 假設，因為 AARO 歸根結底，特別是對於許多大型礦山而言，是關於移動材料、移動泥土和移動水。今天我們做了很多這樣的事。因此，我們今天在這些活動中提高的效率最終減少了我們的 AARO 責任，因為我們對執行此類工作的信心大大增強了。

Thank you, guys. Kris, guys, thank you for the detailed answer. A very quick follow up, if I may, Kris. Cash CapEx versus the funding of this, does it come out of working capital in the balance sheet? How does it flow through the cash flow statement? And I'll leave it there. Thank you.

謝謝你們。Kris，夥伴們，謝謝你們詳細的回答。如果可以的話，我可以快速跟進一下，克里斯。現金資本支出與這筆資金相比，它是否來自資產負債表中的營運資本？它是如何在現金流量表中流動的？我就把它留在那裡了。謝謝。

Yeah, so you'll see it. It does run through that. It's an expense and then you'll see it, obviously, as we do the bridge from operating earnings to AFFO, Doug.

是的，所以你會看到它。它確實貫穿了這一點。這是一項費用，然後你會明顯看到它，因為我們將營業收入與 AFFO 聯繫起來，Doug。

Patrick O'Rourke, ATB Capital Markets.

奧羅克（Patrick O'Rourke），ATB 資本市場。

Good morning, guys. Thank you for the comprehensive rundown thus far and congratulations on another very strong operational execution quarter. Just a few very quick questions from me.

大家早安。感謝您迄今為止的全面概述，並祝賀又一個非常強勁的營運執行季度。我只想問幾個很簡單的問題。

First, with respect to the balance sheet and the working capital building and release, obviously, that worked in your favor here, bringing the debt materially down below that $8 billion. I know you talked about some reversal in the first quarter here and then throughout 2025. Can you maybe walk through the potential cadence of that? And then as you sort of determine what's structural versus what's cyclical, how and when you make the determination on returning some of that capital to shareholders?

首先，就資產負債表和營運資本的建立與釋放而言，顯然這對您有利，使債務大幅降至 80 億美元以下。我知道您談到了第一季以及整個 2025 年的一些逆轉。您能否介紹一下這種潛在節奏？然後，當您確定什麼是結構性的、什麼是週期性的時，您如何以及何時決定將部分資本回饋給股東？

Yes. Yeah. Thanks, Patrick. Great question. The working capital story, I think, for the company has been a really good one this year. It's been a tremendous amount of focus on it. I mean, we certainly see a lot of variability. It's the nature of our business. You'll see that variability quarter to quarter. I commented a bit of that in my opening remarks.

是的。是的。謝謝，派崔克。好問題。我認為，今年公司的營運資金狀況非常好。人們對此關注度極高。我的意思是，我們確實看到了很多變化。這是我們業務的本質。您會看到每個季度都有這種變化。我在開場白中對此做了一些評論。

So we did see a big release in Q4. A lot of that, it was related to AR, moves in commodity price. We saw timing of cargo settlements as well as timing and commodity taxes and then a drawdown in inventory.

因此我們確實看到了第四季度的重大發布。其中許多都與 AR、商品價格的變動有關。我們看到了貨物結算的時間以及商品稅的時間和隨後的庫存減少。

I do expect that to come back, as I mentioned in Q1, as we build inventory for turnarounds. We've got some other timing and working capital. So you'll always see a variability. But there is structural change underlying the working capital story here at Suncor. And it's been part of the story of actually hitting that net debt target early.

我確實預計這種情況會再次出現，正如我在第一季提到的那樣，因為我們建立了周轉庫存。我們還有一些其他的時間和營運資金。因此你總會看見改變。但森科爾的營運資本狀況存在著結構性變化。這也是提前實現淨債務目標的一部分。

What I can assure you is we've got huge focus in our organization on our working capital. And we're really managing against that net debt target. We use the words at or near. We want to make sure we're comfortable where that net debt is. We're very comfortable with it. And as we get more confidence and structural releases of working capital, that cash is going to be able to be returned to shareholders.

我可以向你們保證的是，我們組織非常重視營運資金。我們確實正在努力實現淨債務目標。我們使用 at 或 near 等字詞。我們希望確保我們對淨債務的現狀感到滿意。我們對此感到非常滿意。隨著我們信心的增強和營運資本的結構性釋放，這些現金將能夠返還給股東。

Okay, great. And then just in terms of the return of capital policy here, having sort of outperformed on a lot of your milestones, you talked about being ahead on the $10 improvement on breakeven. How do you think about allocating that outperformance between sort of the return of capital mechanisms, the dividend, which is more of a commitment or structural versus the share buyback program that you've had in place?

好的，太好了。然後就資本回報政策而言，您在許多里程碑上都表現出色，您談到在盈虧平衡點上領先 10 美元。您如何考慮在資本回報機制和股利之間分配這種優異表現？

Yeah, I mean, if you get started, we outlined this in the May deck. We had a page that kind of, you know, we've got to take care of our existing asset base that's sustaining capital. You know, the goal, the vision is a reliable and growing dividend over time. And then quality investments and return surplus cash to shareholders.

是的，我的意思是，如果你開始的話，我們在五月的報告中概述了這一點。我們有一個頁面，你知道，我們必須照顧好我們現有的資產基礎，以維持資本。你知道，我們的目標和願景是隨著時間的推移，獲得可靠且不斷增長的紅利。然後進行優質投資並將剩餘現金返還給股東。

In that plan, as we were going, as we got to the $8 billion net debt target, the idea there is we kind of wanted a 1 times coverage at a $50 a barrel world. So that kind of -- that philosophy of what we're looking to achieve is still intact.

在該計劃中，當我們達到 80 億美元的淨債務目標時，我們的想法是，在油價每桶 50 美元的情況下，我們希望獲得 1 倍的覆蓋率。所以，我們想要實現的那種哲學思想仍然完好無損。

And as the business improves, we will look at that. What is the -- what -- the AFFO generation or the free funds? What is what are we able to deliver? But it's we want to be strong and resilient in weaker market conditions and then be obviously -- the ability to be opportunistic in stronger market conditions.

隨著業務的改善，我們將會關注這一點。什麼是——什麼——AFFO 產生或免費資金？我們能夠提供什麼？但我們希望在較弱的市場條件下保持強大和韌性，然後顯然——在較強的市場條件下抓住機會的能力。

So the fundamental philosophy hasn't changed. But the commitment to returning cash to shareholders is every bit as high, if not higher than it was a year or a year or so ago.

因此基本理念沒有改變。但向股東返還現金的承諾卻絲毫不減，甚至比一年前或前些年更高。

Thank you. And as I see no further questions at this time, I would like to turn the conference back to Mr. Troy Little for closing remarks.

謝謝。由於目前沒有其他問題，我想將會議交還給特洛伊·利特爾先生，請他作最後發言。

Thank you, operator. I'll actually turn it back over to Rich for some closing comments.

謝謝您，接線生。實際上，我會把它交還給 Rich，讓他做一些結束語。

And I'll be brief here, guys. By now everyone knows I'm a big sports fan. I love competition. I love the concept of winning. I respect, admire excellence. You know that the dedication, determination, anything you want to describe it of being a champion, the Gretzky's, the Brady's, the Jordan's, the best of the best, the hall of famers. We all know they did not get there with one or two good seasons. It takes excellence year after year. That is the objective of today's Suncor, sustained excellence.

各位，我就在這裡簡短地說一說。現在大家都知道我是一個狂熱的運動迷。我喜歡競爭。我喜歡勝利的概念。我尊重、欽佩優秀。你知道，身為冠軍，需要奉獻、需要決心，無論你想用什麼字眼來形容，你都可以成為像格雷茨基、布雷迪、喬丹這樣的冠軍，成為最強中的最強，成為名人堂成員。我們都知道他們不是靠一兩個賽季的好成績就能達到這個水準的。需要年復一年地追求卓越。這就是當今 Suncor 的目標：持續追求卓越。

2024, a good year, arguably a very good year. Don't worry about this company reading our headlines, drinking the Kool-Aid. We are as hungry as we have ever been. We want more. And we started on January 1 of this year to deliver more.

2024年，一個好年份，可以說是非常好的年份。不用擔心這家公司會讀到我們的頭條新聞，喝下 Kool-Aid。我們比以往任何時候都更飢餓。我們想要更多。我們從今年 1 月 1 日就開始提供更多服務。

That's all I have. Troy, I turn it back to you.

這就是我的所有了。特洛伊，我把它還給你。

Thank you, everyone, for joining our call this morning. If you have any follow-up questions, please don't hesitate to reach out to our team. Operator, you can end the call.

感謝大家參加我們今天上午的電話會議。如果您有任何後續問題，請隨時聯絡我們的團隊。接線員，您可以結束通話了。

Thank you all for participating and you may now disconnect.

感謝大家的參與，現在可以斷開連線了。