Stem Inc (STEM) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Stem Inc Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to Ted Durbin, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

歡迎來到 Stem Inc 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係主管 Ted Durbin。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. This is Ted Durbin, Head of Investor Relations at Stem and we welcome you to our fourth quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Call. Before we begin please note that some of the statements we will be making today are forward looking. These matters involve risks and uncertainties that could cause our results to differ materially from those projected in these statements. We therefore refer you to our latest 10k and our other SEC filings. Our comments today also include non-GAAP financial measures. Additional details in reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found on our earnings release. We will be using a slide presentation today. Our earnings release and presentation are on the investor relations portion of our website at www.stem.com.

謝謝你，運營商。我是 Stem 投資者關係主管 Ted Durbin，我們歡迎您參加我們的第四季度和 2022 年全年收益電話會議。在我們開始之前請注意，我們今天將要發表的一些聲明是前瞻性的。這些事項涉及風險和不確定性，可能導致我們的結果與這些聲明中預測的結果存在重大差異。因此，我們建議您參考我們最新的 10k 和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件。我們今天的評論還包括非 GAAP 財務措施。可以在我們的收益發布中找到與最直接可比的 GAAP 財務指標對賬的更多詳細信息。我們今天將使用幻燈片演示。我們的收益發布和介紹位於我們網站 www.stem.com 的投資者關係部分。

John Carrington, our CEO and Bill Bush, CFO will start the call today with prepared remarks. Mike Carlson, Chief Operating Officer and Prakash Patel, Chief Strategy Officer will also be available for the question and answer portion of the call. And now we'll turn the call over to John.

我們的首席執行官 John Carrington 和首席財務官 Bill Bush 將在今天開始電話會議時發表事先準備好的講話。首席運營官 Mike Carlson 和首席戰略官 Prakash Patel 也將出席電話會議的問答環節。現在我們將把電話轉給約翰。

Thank you Ted. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining us on the call today. Starting with Slide 3 in the agenda for the discussion today. I will review our fourth quarter 2022 results in highlights, followed by an overview of our commercial execution and provide an update on the supply chain. I will then review our strong operating results and new offerings that demonstrate our technology leadership. Following my remarks I'll turn the call over to Bill Bush, our chief financial officer who will discuss our financial results in more detail and provide 2023 guidance.

謝謝泰德。女士們，先生們，感謝你們今天加入我們的電話會議。從今天討論議程中的幻燈片 3 開始。我將重點回顧我們 2022 年第四季度的業績，然後概述我們的商業執行情況，並提供供應鏈的最新情況。然後，我將回顧我們強勁的經營業績和展示我們技術領先地位的新產品。在我發言之後，我會將電話轉給我們的首席財務官比爾布什，他將更詳細地討論我們的財務業績並提供 2023 年的指導。

Turning to Slide 4. Today we reported solid fourth quarter results including record revenue of $156 million, which was three times higher than the same quarter last year. We also reported record bookings of $458 million, which was 2 times higher than the same quarter last year. Our revenue and bookings in the fourth quarter alone were higher than the entire year of 2021, which is a remarkable achievement over a short period of time. We achieved these results despite a turbulent environment throughout 2022 including supply chain volatility interconnection and permitting delays, costs inflation, and solar import declines from the AD/CVD and you UFLPA restrictions.

轉到幻燈片 4。今天我們公佈了穩健的第四季度業績，包括創紀錄的 1.56 億美元收入，是去年同期的三倍。我們還報告了 4.58 億美元的創紀錄預訂量，比去年同期高出 2 倍。僅第四季度，我們的收入和預訂量就高於 2021 年全年，這在短時間內取得了顯著成就。儘管整個 2022 年環境動盪，包括供應鏈波動互連和許可延遲、成本膨脹以及太陽能進口因 AD/CVD 和 UFLPA 限製而下降，但我們仍取得了這些成果。

Our diversified business model across multiple products and geographies help the company navigate these headwinds. As we previewed in our interim update in early January, revenue came in within the guidance range and our bookings were well ahead of guidance that we had already raised in the middle of 2022. In fact, if you go back to our 4Q '21 earnings call, our bookings ended 50% higher than our original full year guidance. The bookings momentum is a testament to our software and services solutions that are differentiated in the marketplace. We are also capitalizing on the tremendous macro tailwinds. In this industry.

我們跨多種產品和地區的多元化商業模式幫助公司應對這些不利因素。正如我們在 1 月初的中期更新中預覽的那樣，收入在指導範圍內，我們的預訂量遠遠超過了我們在 2022 年中期已經提出的指導。事實上，如果你回到我們的 21 年第四季度收益電話，我們的預訂結束時比我們最初的全年指導高出 50%。預訂勢頭證明了我們在市場上與眾不同的軟件和服務解決方案。我們也在利用巨大的宏觀順風。在這個行業。

We grew our contracted annual recurring revenue our CARR another 7% quarter over quarter to $65 million in the range of our guidance that was also raised by $5 million during our 2Q earnings call. Focusing on the right side of the page, we continued our momentum and e-mobility with an exciting strategic partnership with charge point. I'll discuss more on this opportunity later in the call.

在我們的指導範圍內，我們的合同年度經常性收入我們的 CARR 比上一季度再增長 7% 至 6500 萬美元，在我們的第二季度財報電話會議上也提高了 500 萬美元。專注於頁面右側，我們通過與充電點的令人興奮的戰略合作夥伴關係繼續我們的勢頭和電動汽車。我將在稍後的電話會議中詳細討論這個機會。

We continue to drive operating leverage as we ramp headcount at a slower rate than our revenue growth. We are implementing technology and processes to control cost, and leveraging our infrastructure in India to grow headcount in lower cost regions. We're also staying ahead of the supply chain with capacity contracted through Q1 2024.

我們繼續推動經營槓桿，因為我們以低於收入增長的速度增加員工人數。我們正在實施技術和流程來控製成本，並利用我們在印度的基礎設施來增加低成本地區的員工人數。我們還在供應鏈中保持領先地位，產能合同將持續到 2024 年第一季度。

Before we move on from this slide, I would like to make a couple of comments about our full year results. We faced several headwinds during the quarter and throughout the year; we were negatively impacted by COVID related shutdowns in the fourth quarter in China. To address this risk. We are undertaking a strategy to diversify and deepen our relationships with battery OEMs. In addition, we are leveraging our technology leadership to introduce an offering that provides flexibility for our customers in system design, and can help mitigate disruptions at any one supplier.

在我們繼續這張幻燈片之前，我想對我們的全年業績發表一些評論。我們在本季度和全年都面臨著一些不利因素；第四季度，我們在中國受到 COVID 相關停工的負面影響。為了應對這種風險。我們正在實施一項戰略，以豐富和深化我們與電池 OEM 的關係。此外，我們正在利用我們的技術領先地位推出一種產品，為我們的客戶提供系統設計的靈活性，並有助於減輕任何供應商的中斷。

On the solar front as previously discussed, we were negatively impacted by the lack of panel shipments that resulted from the anti-dumping and Uyghur forced labor restrictions. Software Services revenue was negatively impacted by interconnection and permitting delays. Bill will discuss the multiple pathways we have to continue growing gross margin.

如前所述，在太陽能方面，我們受到反傾銷和維吾爾強迫勞動限制導致面板出貨量不足的負面影響。軟件服務收入受到互連和許可延遲的負面影響。比爾將討論我們必須繼續提高毛利率的多種途徑。

Finally, we effectively managed expenses throughout 2022, coming in on plan to our guidance for adjusted EBITDA, in large part, because we were prudent in our hiring and are seeing the benefit of our strategy to expand headcount in lower-cost geographies, I've charged our management team and our global organization with reaching positive adjusted EBITDA in the second half of this year, and we will not wavier on that key objective.

最後，我們有效地管理了整個 2022 年的開支，並按照我們對調整後 EBITDA 的指導計劃進行了調整，這在很大程度上是因為我們在招聘時很謹慎，並且看到了我們在低成本地區擴大員工人數的戰略的好處，我我們已責成我們的管理團隊和我們的全球組織在今年下半年實現調整後的 EBITDA 為正，我們不會放棄這一關鍵目標。

Moving to Slide 5 and our continued commercial execution. As you can see in the chart in the upper right, we had strong services revenue growth in the fourth quarter, up 17% versus the third quarter, which itself was up 9% versus the second quarter. As you know, this is the highest margin portion of our business, and we are focused on driving these revenues higher in 2023 and beyond. I mentioned our strong bookings quarter, which exceeded full year 2021 bookings. Additionally, over 2/3 of our full year bookings came from new customers. We expect bookings momentum to continue with the tailwinds we are seeing in the industry.

轉到幻燈片 5 和我們繼續的商業執行。正如您在右上角的圖表中看到的那樣，我們在第四季度的服務收入增長強勁，比第三季度增長了 17%，而第三季度本身比第二季度增長了 9%。如您所知，這是我們業務中利潤率最高的部分，我們致力於在 2023 年及以後提高這些收入。我提到了我們強勁的預訂季度，超過了 2021 年全年的預訂量。此外，超過 2/3 的全年預訂來自新客戶。我們預計預訂勢頭將隨著我們在行業中看到的順風而繼續。

As you can see in the lower right chart, Wood Mackenzie is now calling for a 46% increase in solar and storage build-out in the U.S. primarily as a result of the inflation Reduction Act. We think that the long-term visibility provided by IRA will drive strong growth for years to come. We are pleased to start our first only software project in ISO New England this quarter and expect to do more software-only deals going forward.

正如您在右下角的圖表中看到的那樣，Wood Mackenzie 現在呼籲將美國的太陽能和儲能建設增加 46%，這主要是由於通貨膨脹減少法案。我們認為 IRA 提供的長期可見性將推動未來幾年的強勁增長。我們很高興本季度在 ISO New England 開始我們的第一個唯一的軟件項目，並期望在未來進行更多的純軟件交易。

We continue to generate strong recurring revenues from our existing customers, as they are willing to pay for the incremental additional value we're creating for them. Finally, we have revamped our sales compensation plan to favor margin over revenue. We expect continued strong growth but will focus on the highest margin portion of the value chain where our differentiated solutions most resonate.

我們繼續從現有客戶那裡獲得可觀的經常性收入，因為他們願意為我們為他們創造的增量附加價值買單。最後，我們修改了銷售補償計劃，以支持利潤率高於收入。我們預計將持續強勁增長，但將專注於我們的差異化解決方案最能引起共鳴的價值鏈中利潤率最高的部分。

Turning to Slide 6 and an update on the supply chain. On the storage side, we have now fully contracted supply through the first quarter of 2024, and we are opportunistically adding supply on the spot market. The choppiness in the electric vehicle market, along with some project delays, appears to have released some excess capacity that is coming into the stationary storage market. We will continue to execute back-to-back contracts that lock in our customer demand as we add additional supply commitments.

轉到幻燈片 6 和供應鏈的更新。在存儲方面，我們現在已經完全簽訂了到 2024 年第一季度的供應合同，我們正在抓住機會增加現貨市場的供應。電動汽車市場的動盪以及一些項目的延遲似乎釋放了一些進入固定存儲市場的過剩產能。隨著我們增加額外的供應承諾，我們將繼續執行鎖定客戶需求的背靠背合同。

On the commodities front, we are cautiously optimistic that some of the recent price declines will hold, which could improve project economics for customers and increase our addressable market. For example, lithium carbonate prices are down around 20% from their peak in November, which is starting to flow into the overall energy storage system price. As you know, price increases or decreases are complete pass-through for Stem, but we are encouraged to see these lower prices.

在大宗商品方面，我們對近期的部分價格下跌將保持謹慎樂觀，這可能會改善客戶的項目經濟效益並增加我們的目標市場。例如，碳酸鋰價格較 11 月的峰值下跌了 20% 左右，這開始影響到整個儲能係統價格。如您所知，價格上漲或下跌對 Stem 來說是完全傳遞的，但我們很高興看到這些較低的價格。

And in storage, we continue to progress our unit controller or modular energy storage system strategy that we discussed in our last earnings call. This offering will enable customers to mix and match various hardware combinations with an ability to swap batteries and inverters, ultimately decoupling our customers from some of the supply chain volatility that we have seen in recent years. Importantly, we will still maintain control of the edge hardware solution. Customers and partners are very excited about this offering, and we expect to install our first pilot modular ESS next month.

在存儲方面，我們繼續推進我們在上次財報電話會議上討論的單元控制器或模塊化儲能係統戰略。該產品將使客戶能夠混合和匹配各種硬件組合，並能夠更換電池和逆變器，最終使我們的客戶擺脫我們近年來看到的一些供應鏈波動。重要的是，我們仍將保持對邊緣硬件解決方案的控制。客戶和合作夥伴對此產品感到非常興奮，我們預計下個月將安裝我們的第一個試點模塊化 ESS。

Please turn to Slide 7, where we will discuss our technology leadership. We performed well in 2022 on the technology and operations front. Overall, we experienced a 33% in grid calls across the fleet without impacting customer bill reduction expectations. Athena now has 31 million runtime hours across multiple markets, use cases and hardware devices. Our machine-learning algorithm continues to improve as it is exposed to more data and more markets, which extends our competitive mode.

請轉到幻燈片 7，我們將在其中討論我們的技術領先地位。我們在 2022 年在技術和運營方面表現良好。總體而言，我們在整個車隊中經歷了 33% 的網格呼叫，而沒有影響客戶減少賬單的預期。 Athena 現在在多個市場、用例和硬件設備上擁有 3100 萬運行時間。我們的機器學習算法不斷改進，因為它接觸到更多數據和更多市場，從而擴展了我們的競爭模式。

We continue to support our customers and the grid in several core markets. In California, we saw a 20x increase in grid calls during December and January tied to the atmospheric river weather patterns along with the extreme high gas prices in Southern California. Southern California Edison called on the Stem network almost continuously as we provided over 60 megawatts per day for those months. Our virtual power plant delivered the equivalent of several gas peaking power plants and became a valuable capacity option for utilities and grid operators.

我們繼續在幾個核心市場為我們的客戶和電網提供支持。在加利福尼亞州，我們發現 12 月和 1 月期間的電網呼叫增加了 20 倍，這與大氣河流天氣模式以及南加州極高的天然氣價格有關。南加州愛迪生幾乎持續不斷地訪問 Stem 網絡，因為我們在那幾個月每天提供超過 60 兆瓦的電力。我們的虛擬發電廠提供相當於幾個天然氣調峰發電廠的能力，並成為公用事業和電網運營商的寶貴容量選擇。

Athena also continued to exceed our commitments, 8% above baseline for the key SGIP incentive program. In ISO New England, we continued our exceptional performance with the fleet generating 76% more revenue than forecasted. We had a 94% accuracy in predicting coincident peaks, which will be an important differentiator in the PGM market that I will discuss in a moment. And we bid over 200 megawatt hours into the forward capacity market auction this spring that will take effect in 2026.

Athena 還繼續超出我們的承諾，比關鍵 SGIP 激勵計劃的基線高出 8%。在 ISO New England，我們繼續保持卓越的表現，車隊創造的收入比預期高出 76%。我們在預測重合峰值方面的準確率為 94%，這將是我稍後將討論的 PGM 市場的一個重要差異化因素。我們在今年春天的遠期容量市場拍賣中出價超過 200 兆瓦時，該拍賣將於 2026 年生效。

Finally, in ERCOT. Our first sites will begin trading in the wholesale market in 2023. We announced in December, our first 4 projects with REX Storage Holdings, a joint venture between Regis Energy Partners, an independent developer and Excelsior Energy Capital, a leading investment fund. REX has made a substantial equity commitment to ERCOT storage, which could fund dozens of new projects.

最後，在 ERCOT。我們的第一批站點將於 2023 年開始在批發市場上交易。我們在 12 月宣布了與 REX Storage Holdings 的前 4 個項目，REX Storage Holdings 是獨立開發商 Regis Energy Partners 和領先投資基金 Excelsior Energy Capital 的合資企業。 REX 對 ERCOT 存儲做出了大量股權承諾，這可能會資助數十個新項目。

Let's move to Slide 8 and our new partnership with ChargePoint. ChargePoint is a leading electric vehicle charging infrastructure company, which has followed a similar path of innovation and market leadership with Stem, founded in 2007, ChargePoint has grown to over 200,000 ports under management focused on charging both personal and fleet vehicles. Our partnership will focus on the confluence of fleet electrification in the grid. Stem will provide battery, hardware and software to coordinate on-site demand with the grid. ChargePoint will provide the charging solutions. Together, we can help accelerate electric vehicle adoption, enhance customer economics, increased grid resiliency and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Collectively, we will leverage the $5 billion of funding incentives from the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure program, or NEVI, that went into effect in fourth quarter 2022. We estimate the NEVI program could offset up to 80% of project costs where available.

讓我們轉到幻燈片 8 以及我們與 ChargePoint 的新合作夥伴關係。 ChargePoint 是一家領先的電動汽車充電基礎設施公司，與 2007 年成立的 Stem 有著相似的創新和市場領導地位，ChargePoint 已經發展到管理著超過 200,000 個端口，專注於為個人和車隊車輛充電。我們的合作夥伴關係將專注於車隊電氣化在電網中的融合。 Stem 將提供電池、硬件和軟件，以協調現場需求與電網。 ChargePoint 將提供充電解決方案。我們可以共同幫助加速電動汽車的採用、提高客戶經濟效益、提高電網彈性並減少溫室氣體排放。總的來說，我們將利用 2022 年第四季度生效的國家電動汽車基礎設施計劃 (NEVI) 提供的 50 億美元資金激勵。我們估計 NEVI 計劃最多可以抵消 80% 的項目成本。

And further, we estimate the IRA will provide another $9 billion of incentives and tax credits in the markets we're focused, driving additional benefits for our customers. In total, we expect e-mobility to comprise around half of our behind the meter or BTM sales in 3 years. We have already booked several EV charging deals and the ChargePoint announcement will help jump-start our progress in this exciting market, along with our previously announced partnerships with ANGI and ABB.

此外，我們估計 IRA 將在我們關注的市場中提供另外 90 億美元的激勵和稅收抵免，從而為我們的客戶帶來額外的好處。總的來說，我們預計電動汽車將在 3 年內占我們計程車或 BTM 銷售額的一半左右。我們已經預訂了幾筆 EV 充電交易，ChargePoint 公告將幫助我們在這個令人興奮的市場上取得進展，以及我們之前宣布的與 ANGI 和 ABB 的合作夥伴關係。

Next, please turn to Slide 9 and our entry into the PJM market for energy storage. PJM is the largest competitive power market in the world at around 150 gigawatts, which is 3x larger than the California grid. It spans 12 states plus D.C. and the average industrial customer load is almost 8x larger than in California. We started selling our storage solutions in PJM for several reasons. One, rising transmission charges, you can see over the last 9 years, transmission charges have more than doubled for most of the major zones. This is raising electric bills for commercial and industrial customers, driving them to renewable energy sources like solar and increasingly storage. Secondly, new state incentive programs are increasing the returns on storage. And finally, the IRA, in particular, the storage ITC, which has opened many new markets to retrofit storage onto existing solar installations.

接下來，請轉到幻燈片 9 和我們進入 PJM 儲能市場。 PJM 是世界上最大的競爭性電力市場，容量約為 150 吉瓦，比加利福尼亞電網大 3 倍。它橫跨 12 個州和華盛頓特區，平均工業客戶負載幾乎是加利福尼亞州的 8 倍。出於多種原因，我們開始在 PJM 中銷售我們的存儲解決方案。第一，輸電費用上漲，你可以看到在過去 9 年中，大多數主要地區的輸電費用翻了一番以上。這增加了商業和工業客戶的電費，驅使他們轉向太陽能等可再生能源和越來越多的儲能。其次，新的國家激勵計劃正在增加存儲的回報。最後，IRA，特別是儲能 ITC，它開闢了許多新市場，將儲能改造到現有的太陽能裝置上。

Our installed base from -- AlsoEnergy gives us a significant advantage in this regard. We think PJM is in an ideal market expansion opportunity, as customers will benefit from Athena's ability to co-optimize multiple complex value streams. In addition, we have a strong track record of predicting coincident peaks in other markets, and that will be a key value driver in PJM as well. This is a differentiated offering that is accessible with our best-in-class AI capabilities. Because of the additional value we will add for customers, we expect to charge up to 50% higher fees for Athena.

我們的安裝基礎 - AlsoEnergy 在這方面為我們提供了顯著優勢。我們認為 PJM 正處於一個理想的市場擴張機會，因為客戶將受益於 Athena 共同優化多個複雜價值流的能力。此外，我們在預測其他市場的重合峰值方面擁有良好的記錄，這也將成為 PJM 的關鍵價值驅動因素。這是一個差異化的產品，可以通過我們一流的 AI 功能訪問。由於我們將為客戶增加額外價值，我們預計 Athena 收取高達 50% 的費用。

Thank you. And now I will turn the call over to Bill Bush, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝。現在我將把電話轉給我們的首席財務官比爾布什。

Thank you, John. Starting on Page 11 with our results for the fourth quarter and full year 2022. But please recall that we closed the AlsoEnergy transaction on February 1, 2022, which will impact the comparability to last year's results.

謝謝你，約翰。從第 11 頁開始，我們公佈了 2022 年第四季度和全年的業績。但請記住，我們於 2022 年 2 月 1 日完成了 AlsoEnergy 交易，這將影響與去年業績的可比性。

As John mentioned, we reported record revenue of $156 million, which was a 194% increase versus the $53 million in the fourth quarter of 2021 and more than we recorded in all of 2021. Most of the growth came from the storage hardware sales on FTM partner projects and about $18 million from the Power Track platform. We also recognized approximately $16 million of high-margin software and services revenue, representing 10% of total revenue for the quarter. Full year 2022 revenue was $363 million, an increase of 186% over 2021. For the quarter, our GAAP gross margin was $13 million or positive 8%, up from a negative 3% in the same quarter last year. For the full year, GAAP gross margin increased from $1 million to $33 million.

正如 John 所提到的，我們報告的收入達到創紀錄的 1.56 億美元，與 2021 年第四季度的 5300 萬美元相比增長了 194%，超過了我們 2021 年全年的記錄。大部分增長來自 FTM 上的存儲硬件銷售夥伴項目以及來自 Power Track 平台的約 1800 萬美元。我們還確認了約 1600 萬美元的高利潤軟件和服務收入，佔本季度總收入的 10%。 2022 年全年收入為 3.63 億美元，比 2021 年增長 186%。本季度，我們的 GAAP 毛利率為 1300 萬美元或正 8%，高於去年同期的負 3%。全年，GAAP 毛利率從 100 萬美元增加到 3300 萬美元。

Turning to Slide 12. The Fourth quarter non-GAAP gross margin was $17 million, up from $3 million in the fourth quarter from last year due to higher revenues. On a percentage basis, non-GAAP gross margin was 11% in the quarter, up from 5% last year. Our margins benefited from a greater share of high-margin software and services revenue. For the full year 2022, non-GAAP gross margin came in at 13%, up from 9% last year. We came up short of our 15% to 20% non-GAAP gross margin guidance driven by a higher mix of hardware than we expected.

轉到幻燈片 12。由於收入增加，第四季度非 GAAP 毛利率為 1700 萬美元，高於去年第四季度的 300 萬美元。按百分比計算，本季度非美國通用會計準則毛利率為 11%，高於去年的 5%。我們的利潤率得益於高利潤率軟件和服務收入的更大份額。 2022 年全年，非 GAAP 毛利率為 13%，高於去年的 9%。由於硬件組合高於預期，我們未能實現 15% 至 20% 的非 GAAP 毛利率指導。

Our storage software revenues also increased more slowly than we expected due to the continued permitting and interconnection delays that our partners experienced. While the solar side of our business underperformed from a revenue standpoint in 2022 with relatively flat revenue versus 2021, the business continues to generate high gross margins ending the year at 60% and is well positioned to take advantage of the expected snapback in the solar industry. Our solar backlog increased 42% on a year-over-year basis, giving concrete evidence of a rebound in our solar results. Net loss was $35 million versus $34 million in the same quarter last year. And lastly, adjusted EBITDA was a negative $10 million in the fourth quarter versus a negative $12 million in the same quarter last year. Adjusted EBITDA improved as we continue to drive operating leverage in our business.

由於我們的合作夥伴經歷了持續的許可和互連延遲，我們的存儲軟件收入增長也比我們預期的要慢。雖然從收入的角度來看，我們業務的太陽能方面在 2022 年表現不佳，與 2021 年相比收入相對持平，但該業務在年底繼續產生高毛利率，達到 60%，並且處於有利地位，可以利用太陽能行業的預期反彈.我們的太陽能積壓訂單同比增長 42%，為我們的太陽能業績反彈提供了具體證據。淨虧損為 3500 萬美元，而去年同期為 3400 萬美元。最後，第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 為負 1000 萬美元，而去年同期為負 1200 萬美元。隨著我們繼續推動業務的運營槓桿，調整後的 EBITDA 有所改善。

For the full year, adjusted EBITDA was a negative $46 million versus a negative $30 million in 2021. Our adjusted EBITDA results were within our guidance range of negative $20 million to negative $60 million. So despite weaker-than-expected gross margins, we were able to meet our EBITDA guidance, and that's due to cost controls. In particular, when we saw the slowdown in the solar business begin to develop in the spring, we managed the pace of our hiring. We will continue to take the same conservative approach this year to ensure we achieve our goal of achieving an EBITDA positive in the second half of the year.

全年，調整後的 EBITDA 為負 4600 萬美元，而 2021 年為負 3000 萬美元。我們調整後的 EBITDA 結果在負 2000 萬美元至負 6000 萬美元的指導範圍內。因此，儘管毛利率低於預期，但我們能夠達到我們的 EBITDA 指導，這是由於成本控制。特別是，當我們看到太陽能業務在春季開始放緩時，我們控制了招聘步伐。今年我們將繼續採取同樣的保守方法，以確保我們在下半年實現 EBITDA 為正的目標。

Fourth quarter bookings were $458 million, up more than 2x versus bookings in the same quarter last year and a new quarterly record. This was the highest booking quarter in the company's history and the $1.1 billion of bookings for the full year is up 153% from 2021.

第四季度的預訂量為 4.58 億美元，是去年同期預訂量的 2 倍多，創下了新的季度記錄。這是該公司歷史上最高的預訂季度，全年預訂額為 11 億美元，比 2021 年增長了 153%。

Moving from our financial results to our operating metrics on Slide 13. Our backlog more than doubled year-over-year from $449 million in the fourth quarter to $969 million in the fourth quarter of 2022. The backlog increased approximately 19% on a sequential basis from the third quarter of 2022. The largest driver of the backlog increase was the $458 million of new bookings in the quarter, offset by revenue recognized as well as $137 million contract cancellation that we disclosed in early January. The nearly $1 billion of backlog gives us good visibility to 2023 and 2024 revenue.

從我們的財務業績轉向我們在幻燈片 13 上的運營指標。我們的積壓訂單同比增長一倍多，從第四季度的 4.49 億美元增加到 2022 年第四季度的 9.69 億美元。積壓訂單環比增長約 19%從 2022 年第三季度開始。積壓訂單增加的最大驅動因素是本季度 4.58 億美元的新預訂，被確認的收入以及我們在 1 月初披露的 1.37 億美元合同取消所抵消。近 10 億美元的積壓讓我們對 2023 年和 2024 年的收入有了很好的了解。

We also no longer report the 12-month pipeline is a key metric in 2023. The business has matured to the point where we believe backlog is a more important indicator of our commercial outlook and does not have the volatility of the pipeline metric. Pipeline was sequentially flat in the fourth quarter, mostly due to the strong conversion of pipeline into bookings during the quarter. Our contracted AUM on the storage side of our business grew from 1.6 gigawatt hours in the fourth quarter of 2021 to 2.5 gigawatt hours in the fourth quarter of 2022. That's a 56% year-over-year increase driven by our strong commercial momentum.

我們也不再報告 12 個月的管道是 2023 年的關鍵指標。業務已經成熟到我們認為積壓是我們商業前景的更重要指標並且沒有管道指標的波動性。管道在第四季度環比持平，這主要是由於該季度管道向預訂的強勁轉換。我們在業務存儲方面的合同 AUM 從 2021 年第四季度的 1.6 吉瓦時增長到 2022 年第四季度的 2.5 吉瓦時。在我們強勁的商業勢頭的推動下，同比增長 56%。

Our operating AUM on the solar asset performance monitoring side of our business ended the quarter at 25 gigawatts, relatively flat to the third quarter. Customer additions were largely offset by churn, including on the spin down of the legacy platform that we discussed last quarter. We expect solid growth in solar AUM in 2023 as the industry recovers.

我們在業務的太陽能資產性能監控方面的運營資產管理規模在本季度結束時為 25 吉瓦，與第三季度持平。客戶增加在很大程度上被客戶流失所抵消，包括我們上個季度討論的遺留平台的停產。隨著行業復甦，我們預計 2023 年太陽能資產管理規模將穩步增長。

Contracted Annual Recurring Revenue or CARR ended the quarter at $65 million, up 7% sequentially. We are pleased we are able to grow CARR during the quarter despite the contract cancellation, again, a testament to our commercial success and software differentiation. We ended the quarter with $250 million in cash on the balance sheet. We will continue to deploy our cash to fund operational investments, including securing storage hardware for our customers. These funds will come back to the company in the form of service fees, hardware margin and a long-term recurring software fee. We will remain prudent in our use of cash within risk limits established by management and overseen by our Board of Directors.

本季度末合同年度經常性收入或 CARR 為 6500 萬美元，環比增長 7%。我們很高興儘管取消了合同，但我們能夠在本季度增加 CARR，這再次證明了我們的商業成功和軟件差異化。本季度末，我們的資產負債表上有 2.5 億美元現金。我們將繼續部署我們的現金來資助運營投資，包括為我們的客戶保護存儲硬件。這些資金將以服務費、硬件保證金和長期經常性軟件費的形式返還給公司。我們將在管理層制定並由董事會監督的風險限額內謹慎使用現金。

Turning to Slide 14 in our 2023 guidance. Starting with revenue. We expect to recognize between $550 million and $650 million of revenue in 2023. To the right, you can see the seasonality we expect for revenue during the year. Similar to prior years, it is back half weighted, driven by the timing of the delivery of batteries. We expect more ratable growing service revenue throughout the year.

轉向我們 2023 年指南中的幻燈片 14。從收入開始。我們預計到 2023 年將確認 5.5 億美元至 6.5 億美元的收入。在右側，您可以看到我們預計全年收入的季節性。與往年類似，它是後半加權的，受電池交付時間的驅動。我們預計全年服務收入將有更可觀的增長。

We expect non-GAAP gross margin of 15% to 20% versus the 13% we reported in 2022. This improvement reflects a higher mix of software and services revenue, including from the solar side of the business. On bookings, we expect to contract between $1.4 billion and $1.6 billion this year, representing a 40% plus growth year-over-year. With our EBITDA focus in mind, we have revamped our sales compensation plan to focus on margin as well as revenue. We will focus on the highest margin opportunities where we can drive differentiated economics for our customers and for Stem.

我們預計非 GAAP 毛利率為 15% 至 20%，而我們在 2022 年報告的毛利率為 13%。這一改善反映了軟件和服務收入的更高組合，包括來自太陽能業務的收入。在預訂方面，我們預計今年將收縮 14 億美元至 16 億美元，同比增長 40% 以上。考慮到我們對 EBITDA 的關注，我們修改了我們的銷售補償計劃，以關注利潤率和收入。我們將專注於利潤率最高的機會，在這些機會中我們可以為我們的客戶和 Stem 推動差異化經濟。

We expect adjusted EBITDA in the range of negative $35 million to negative $5 million versus negative $46 million in 2022. This improvement is driven by higher margins and a continued focus on improving our operating expense leverage. More importantly, we expect EBITDA positive in the second half of 2023. And then lastly, we are introducing CARR guidance, we're expecting to exit 2023 at a run rate of between $80 million and $90 million. This is a function of our bookings growth, including some software-only deals we're pursuing in core markets.

我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 將在負 3500 萬美元至負 500 萬美元之間，而 2022 年為負 4600 萬美元。這一改善是由更高的利潤率和持續關注改善我們的運營費用槓桿所推動的。更重要的是，我們預計 2023 年下半年 EBITDA 為正。最後，我們將引入 CARR 指導，我們預計 2023 年將以 8000 萬至 9000 萬美元的運行率退出。這是我們預訂增長的一個功能，包括我們在核心市場追求的一些純軟件交易。

I would like to provide some context into some key uncertainties we considered in developing our guidance. Storage supply chain constraints impacted our Q4 results with manufacturing logistics delays at one of our key suppliers delaying delivery of products against our contracted backlog. To mitigate the situation, we have pursued both commercial and technology-driven solutions, including onboarding additional suppliers and building domestic supply relationships. A recovery in the solar supply chain is critical to the achievement of our gross margin targets. We are seeing green shoots with the pace of panel deliveries accelerating across top-tier developers and customers, and this should stabilize the contribution from AlsoEnergy. Our backlog for Solar APM was up 42% exiting Q4 2022, so we are cautiously optimistic. On gross margin expansion, we have multiple shots on goal, which I will discuss on the next slide.

我想為我們在製定指南時考慮的一些關鍵不確定性提供一些背景信息。存儲供應鏈限制影響了我們第四季度的業績，我們的主要供應商之一的製造物流延誤延遲了我們合同積壓產品的交付。為了緩解這種情況，我們尋求商業和技術驅動的解決方案，包括加入更多供應商和建立國內供應關係。太陽能供應鏈的複蘇對於實現我們的毛利率目標至關重要。隨著頂級開發商和客戶面板交付速度的加快，我們看到了新芽，這應該會穩定 AlsoEnergy 的貢獻。截至 2022 年第四季度，我們的 Solar APM 積壓訂單增加了 42%，因此我們持謹慎樂觀態度。在毛利率擴張方面，我們有多個目標，我將在下一張幻燈片中討論。

On Slide 15, we expect meaningful accretion in gross margin for 2023 as a result of several factors and key initiatives. By aligning the compensation of our sales team, a gross margin achievement, we've seen a marked improvement in the gross margin within our backlog as we exited 2022. In addition, our CEO, Mike Carlson, is focused on accelerating the pace of system commissioning through the rigor and focus he is bringing and pushing interconnection and permitting processes in partnership with our customers.

在幻燈片 15 中，我們預計由於幾個因素和關鍵舉措，2023 年的毛利率將顯著增加。通過調整我們銷售團隊的薪酬，這是一項毛利率成就，我們已經看到我們在 2022 年結束時積壓訂單中的毛利率有了顯著改善。此外，我們的首席執行官邁克卡爾森專注於加快系統的步伐通過他與我們的客戶合作帶來並推動互連和許可流程的嚴謹和專注進行調試。

We expect to roughly double our operating assets under management in 2023, and this will contribute high gross margin software services as our software contract terms begin on pan commissioning. We expect a recovery in the solar asset performance business, driven by a return to growth in the solar industry. You can see from the graph on the left, most industry expect that the impact of the UFLPA on panel deliveries to be resolved in the first half of this year. In the long term, we were rolling out several service offerings targeting enhanced monetization of activities. We've already been providing our customers as we have built a leadership position in the growth of the industry. This includes project modeling, project design and asset management offerings tied to the introduction of our modular ESS strategy, which we expect to begin to deliver in the first half of 2023. Additionally, we expanded our team of energy market experts last quarter as we roll out services for wholesale energy forecasting and program management for the FTM market. We will update you on the progress and uptake of these offerings in the coming quarters. Bottom line, we will manage the business prudently to address risks in our plan and continue to drive to EBITDA positive in the second half of the year. With that, let me turn the call back to John for some closing remarks.

我們預計到 2023 年我們管理的運營資產將增加一倍左右，隨著我們的軟件合同條款從泛調試開始，這將貢獻高毛利率的軟件服務。我們預計，在太陽能行業恢復增長的推動下，太陽能資產績效業務將出現復甦。從左圖可以看出，大部分行業預計UFLPA對面板出貨的影響將在今年上半年得到解決。從長遠來看，我們推出了多項旨在增強活動貨幣化的服務產品。我們已經為我們的客戶提供服務，因為我們已經在行業發展中建立了領導地位。這包括與引入我們的模塊化 ESS 戰略相關的項目建模、項目設計和資產管理產品，我們預計該戰略將在 2023 年上半年開始交付。此外，我們在上個季度擴大了我們的能源市場專家團隊，因為我們推出為 FTM 市場提供批發能源預測和項目管理服務。我們將在未來幾個季度向您通報這些產品的進展和採用情況。總而言之，我們將審慎管理業務以解決我們計劃中的風險，並在下半年繼續推動 EBITDA 為正。有了這個，讓我把電話轉回給約翰，讓他做一些結束語。

Thanks, Bill. On Page 16, to wrap up, we are committed to achieving EBITDA positive in the second half 2023. Our financial progress is supported by the very strong demand we are seeing from customers as they face rising energy cost and as the full impact of the Inflation Reduction Act fuels market growth. We closed 2022 with $1.1 billion in bookings, representing a 153% increase from the prior year. Our technology team is best in class, driving new market expansion and enhancing gross margins. We launched our offerings into PJM, the largest competitive global power market and are enhancing the economics of sites in Kaiso with Athena's unmatched co-optimization and wholesale energy trading capabilities. In addition, we continue to make inroads into the fast-growing electric vehicle market with the partnership we announced with ChargePoint. All these activities set us up to drive double-digit annual software services growth and enable the company to achieve significant growth in adjusted EBITDA.

謝謝，比爾。最後，在第 16 頁，我們致力於在 2023 年下半年實現 EBITDA 正增長。我們的財務進展得到了客戶非常強勁的需求的支持，因為他們面臨不斷上漲的能源成本以及通貨膨脹的全面影響減排法案推動市場增長。到 2022 年，我們的預訂量達到 11 億美元，比上一年增長 153%。我們的技術團隊一流，推動新市場擴張並提高毛利率。我們向全球最大的競爭性電力市場 PJM 推出我們的產品，並利用 Athena 無與倫比的協同優化和批發能源交易能力提高 Kaiso 站點的經濟性。此外，我們宣布與 ChargePoint 建立合作夥伴關係，繼續進軍快速增長的電動汽車市場。所有這些活動使我們能夠推動每年兩位數的軟件服務增長，並使公司能夠實現調整後 EBITDA 的顯著增長。

Finally, I want to recognize our diverse global team for the outstanding performance and looking forward to meeting the commitments we have outlined today. We have world-class employees, products and customers. With that, let's open the line for questions, please.

最後，我要表彰我們多元化的全球團隊的出色表現，並期待兌現我們今天概述的承諾。我們擁有世界一流的員工、產品和客戶。有了這個，讓我們打開問題熱線。

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Brian Lee of Goldman Sachs.

我們現在開始問答環節。 （操作員說明）第一個問題來自高盛的Brian Lee。

I just -- first one on the guidance for revenue. I mean, given the backlog position here, I'm just kind of curious, what's your assumption around backlog conversion, I would have thought you'd be in position to do higher than kind of the revenue guidance here of $600 million at the midpoint. So are you seeing backlog converting more slowly? Or is there something with respect to mix that's maybe not turning over as quickly as we would have thought just given the overall headline numbers seem to be bigger and gave you more coverage than sort of the revenue guidance you're providing here? And then I had a follow-up on the margins.

我只是 - 第一個關於收入指導。我的意思是，考慮到這裡的積壓情況，我只是有點好奇，你對積壓轉換的假設是什麼，我本以為你可以在中點完成高於此處 6 億美元的收入指導.那麼，您是否看到積壓工作轉換得更慢了？或者是否有一些關於混合的東西可能沒有像我們想像的那樣快速轉變，因為總體標題數字似乎更大並且給你提供了比你在這裡提供的收入指導更多的覆蓋面？然後我對利潤率進行了跟進。

Perfect. Hey Brian, thanks for the question. So yes, and I think we -- in terms of the backlog, it is converting slower. I think we've talked about this in the past as we're taking on larger and larger projects, those tend to be -- they tend to be FTM first. And then second, they tend to be multiyear installations. And so we saw much quick -- when the projects were slow, we're smaller, we saw a much quicker conversion, much like, say, at the end of 2001, we had $400-plus million, $450 million in backlog. We did $363 million in revenue this year. So pretty quick conversion in general. But this year and into -- I think going into the future years, we're just going to -- we're going to need to build more pipeline because the projects are longer. And so from that standpoint, I would say, extension but still pretty significant growth on a year-over-year basis for revenue.

完美的。嘿布賴恩，謝謝你的問題。所以是的，我認為我們 - 就積壓而言，它的轉換速度較慢。我想我們過去已經討論過這個問題，因為我們正在開展越來越大的項目，這些項目往往是 - 他們往往首先是 FTM。其次，它們往往是多年安裝。所以我們很快就看到了——當項目進展緩慢時，我們規模較小，我們看到了更快的轉換，就像在 2001 年底，我們有 400 多萬美元，4.5 億美元的積壓。我們今年的收入為 3.63 億美元。一般來說，轉換速度非常快。但是今年和進入 - 我認為進入未來幾年，我們將 - 我們將需要建立更多的管道，因為項目更長。因此，從這個角度來看，我會說，在收入同比增長的基礎上，擴展但仍然相當顯著。

The other thing I'd add, Brian, and thanks for the question, is we do still have some opportunity to convert bookings into this year here in the first quarter. So keep that in mind.

布賴恩，我要補充的另一件事是，感謝您提出這個問題，我們仍然有機會在第一季度將預訂轉換為今年。所以記住這一點。

On the margin question.

關於保證金問題。

Fair enough. Yes, just on the margins. I know '22, it sounded like you obviously had some issues that impacted you on the gross margins. You're effectively starting '23 here with the same adjusted gross margin guidance is what you had going into '22, but it seems like some of the headwinds from last year have started to dissipate. So is there some conservatism baked into here? Or is there some level of margin leverage that you're not seeing that you would have expected? Because my understanding is you've got maybe a little bit more BTM coming back into the mix, supply chains better. And I know kudos on the operating leverage side of things. So just wondering what are some of the levers around gross margin leverage that we could look to here in '23? Because just based on the headline guidance, it doesn't seem like you're baking in a tonne.

很公平。是的，只是在邊緣。我知道 22 年，聽起來你顯然有一些問題影響了你的毛利率。您實際上是在這裡開始 23 年，調整後的毛利率指導與進入 22 年時相同，但似乎去年的一些逆風已經開始消散。那麼這裡有一些保守主義嗎？或者是否有某種程度的保證金槓桿您沒有看到您預期的？因為我的理解是你可能有更多的 BTM 回歸組合，供應鏈更好。我知道在事物的經營槓桿方面的榮譽。所以只是想知道在 23 年我們可以在這裡看到哪些圍繞毛利率槓桿的槓桿？因為僅根據標題指導，您似乎並沒有在大量烘烤。

Well, I think -- so in terms of the margins, I think we need to be somewhat conservative because the solar part of our business has a lot of margin leverage into it. And though we are seeing some green shoots come out. I mean you can see that in terms of we had 8% service growth in the fourth quarter sequentially. We've got a really nice increase in backlog, 42% year-over-year. We want to make sure that those numbers are actually there. And because of the -- that's a 60% gross margin business in general, if that doesn't materialize, though we expect that much like in '22, that will have a negative impact on us for 2023. So probably is some conservatism. So I think there's -- to some extent, you can always increase the numbers, hard to take them down. And so I think what we'll be doing as we roll into 2023 is continue to monitor the solar part of our business very carefully. But I think the other thing to consider as well is that the hardware side of the storage part of the business continues to be under pressure. I mean that is definitely going to -- as we move up in terms of project size, the margins on those hardware sales, which unfortunately comes before the software is going to impact the overall gross margin. So we kind of went through and tried to appropriately forecast what the mix of those 2 things would be. And I think the ultimate answer is going to depend a lot on what the mix turns out to actually be.

好吧，我認為 - 所以就利潤率而言，我認為我們需要有點保守，因為我們業務的太陽能部分有很大的利潤率槓桿。儘管我們看到一些綠芽出現了。我的意思是你可以看到，就我們在第四季度的服務增長而言，環比增長了 8%。我們的積壓訂單增長非常好，同比增長 42%。我們想確保這些數字確實存在。而且由於——一般來說，這是一個 60% 的毛利率業務，如果這沒有實現，儘管我們預計會像 22 年那樣，但這將對我們 2023 年產生負面影響。所以可能是一些保守主義。所以我認為 - 在某種程度上，你總是可以增加數字，很難減少它們。因此，我認為我們將在進入 2023 年時做的是繼續非常仔細地監控我們業務的太陽能部分。但我認為另一件需要考慮的事情是，業務存儲部分的硬件方面繼續面臨壓力。我的意思是，這肯定會——隨著我們在項目規模、硬件銷售利潤率方面的提升，不幸的是，這發生在軟件將影響整體毛利率之前。所以我們有點經歷並試圖適當地預測這兩件事的組合。而且我認為最終的答案將在很大程度上取決於混合結果的實際情況。

All right. I'll pass it on.

好的。我會傳下去的。

The next question comes from Maheep Mandloi of Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Maheep Mandloi。

Then just following on the previous question from Brian on margins. It feels like there's probably like a shift out of the EBITDA profitability from after Q2 to now the guidance is second half of '23. I just wanted to understand, is there anything in the seasonality which could be causing that? And any other levers on the EBITDA profitability here would appreciate it.

然後就繼續 Brian 在邊距上提出的前一個問題。感覺好像 EBITDA 盈利能力從第二季度之後轉移到現在的指導是 23 年下半年。我只是想了解，是否有任何季節性因素可能導致這種情況？這裡的 EBITDA 盈利能力的任何其他槓桿都會很感激。

Maheep, no, we're not coming off the second half EBITDA positive in any way. So I'm not sure where you got that indication. So that's not the case.

Maheep，不，我們不會以任何方式擺脫下半年的 EBITDA 積極影響。所以我不確定你從哪裡得到這個指示。所以事實並非如此。

Got you. Now I'll follow up later on that. And just looking at the guidance, I'm assuming for the backlog and bookings, assuming 60% of (inaudible) the hardware here that kind of implies revenues in '24 could be around $900 million or probably more than that. Does that math make sense? Or is that also kind of impacted by all the delays or the extended revenue recognition you've kind of talked about in the previous question here.

明白了現在我稍後會跟進。只看指南，我假設積壓和預訂，假設這裡 60%（聽不清）的硬件意味著 24 年的收入可能在 9 億美元左右，或者可能更多。這個數學有意義嗎？或者，這是否也受到您在上一個問題中談到的所有延遲或延長收入確認的影響。

Thanks for the question, Maheep. I think, first, of course, we're not giving '24 guidance just quite yet. But I would refer you to the data that we gave in the LRP, so from that, we do expect to see '24 revenue grow at those rates and the midpoint in hardware was, of course, 30% and services would be 75%. So I think from that standpoint, we do expect to see growth. And then I think one of the places that you saw that in this last fourth quarter is a 17% sequential growth in services. So I mean, ultimately, the path to EBITDA is going to be paved through services, and we're seeing a lot of very positive momentum from that standpoint. Two quarters in a row, 9% in the third quarter, 17% in this quarter of service growth. So we're really excited about that. That's going to be where the gross margin dollars come from. And so I think that will be something to keep in mind as we go on, not just the big print of what the revenue is, but also with the gross margin dollars shake out to be.

謝謝你的問題，馬希普。我認為，首先，當然，我們還沒有給出 24 年的指導。但我會向您推薦我們在 LRP 中提供的數據，因此，我們確實希望看到 24 年的收入以這些速度增長，而硬件的中點當然是 30%，服務將是 75%。所以我認為從這個角度來看，我們確實希望看到增長。然後我認為你在上個第四季度看到的地方之一是服務業連續增長 17%。所以我的意思是，最終，通往 EBITDA 的道路將通過服務鋪平，從這個角度來看，我們看到了很多非常積極的勢頭。連續兩個季度，第三季度 9%，本季度服務增長 17%。所以我們對此感到非常興奮。這將是毛利率的來源。因此，我認為在我們繼續前進的過程中，這將是需要牢記的事情，不僅是收入的大字，而且還有毛利率美元。

Got you. And then the split of hardware versus software and bookings and backlog 60-40, is that changing for '24 sorry '23?

明白了然後是硬件與軟件以及預訂和積壓 60-40 的拆分，這是否會改變 '24 對不起 '23？

No. No, we don't expect that to change. I mean what will change, though, to be clear, is we'll have more software-only deals in 2023 in the backlog. So you'll see more deals there -- and that's particularly true on the largest deals. So one of the things that we tried to adjust for in the bookings number in total was the fact that we expected to have software-only deals this year. And that, of course, only represents, call it, 40% of the total economic value of the system. So the bookings growth is going to be slower on a nominal basis as a result of that. But the KWH or the megawatt hours is going to continue to grow at a very quick rate.

不，不，我們不希望這種情況發生改變。不過，我的意思是，要明確的是，我們將在 2023 年的積壓訂單中有更多純軟件交易。所以你會在那裡看到更多的交易——在最大的交易中尤其如此。因此，我們試圖在總預訂數量中調整的一件事是，我們預計今年將有純軟件交易。當然，這只代表系統總經濟價值的 40%。因此，名義上的預訂增長將因此放緩。但是千瓦時或兆瓦時將繼續以非常快的速度增長。

I'll take the rest later.

剩下的我稍後再說。

Thanks Maheep.

謝謝馬希普。

The next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith of Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Julien Dumoulin-Smith。

Appreciate it. (inaudible) guys here. So with respect to the services, the proserv and devserv, can you guys talk a little bit about the growth of the services business and specifically how you're tracking? And maybe some of the data points we're going to see materialize here as signs or road posts to know that you're scaling here? I know that there have been some other discrete issues here as we're alluding to in the gross margin mix. But I just want to specifically get back at some of these -- the services side.

欣賞它。 （聽不清）伙計們。那麼關於服務，即 proserv 和 devserv，你們能否談談服務業務的增長，特別是你們是如何跟踪的？也許我們將在這裡看到的一些數據點以標誌或路標的形式出現，以了解您正在此處擴展？我知道這裡還有其他一些離散的問題，正如我們在毛利率組合中提到的那樣。但我只想具體談談其中的一些——服務方面。

Thanks, Julien, for the question. So I mean I think the most obvious is going to be what's going on at the top there. So that said, 17% sequential growth. And I think that's the kind -- those are kind of the high-level signposts that you and the other folks should be looking for? What are we able to do in terms of total service revenue just in general? And so I think that's where we've made a lot of progress. Mike Carlson, who's here with us, of course, today is leading the proserv side of the business. And so I think we expect to see quite a bit of progress from that standpoint. We picked up that initiative on the storage side of the business this last August. The solar part of the business has been doing that for some period of time. And to the extent that we're able to experience the growth that a lot of the analysts are expecting, i.e., 100% year-over-year growth in solar, we're going to do much better. We did see a little bit of that in the fourth quarter with the solar part of the business. It did grow 8%, which was a nice accomplishment, particularly given a 1% decline in the third quarter. So I think those are going to be the obvious points that you should be looking for as we go on.

謝謝朱利安提出的問題。所以我的意思是我認為最明顯的是頂部發生的事情。也就是說，環比增長 17%。而且我認為這就是那種 - 那些是您和其他人應該尋找的高級路標？一般而言，就總服務收入而言，我們能做什麼？所以我認為這就是我們取得了很大進展的地方。當然，與我們在一起的邁克卡爾森今天領導著業務的保護方面。因此，我認為我們希望從這個角度看到相當大的進展。去年 8 月，我們在業務的存儲方面採取了這一舉措。該業務的太陽能部分已經這樣做了一段時間。就我們能夠體驗到許多分析師預期的增長而言，即太陽能 100% 的同比增長，我們會做得更好。我們確實在第四季度看到了太陽能部分業務的一點點。它確實增長了 8%，這是一個不錯的成就，特別是考慮到第三季度下降了 1%。因此，我認為這些將是您在繼續進行時應該尋找的明顯要點。

You want to add anything, Prakesh?

Prakesh，你想添加什麼嗎？

Yes. Julien, this is Prakesh. Two points I would make. When Bill was discussing the gross margin accretion strategy, the long-term plan, and John referenced as well next month, we'll be installing our first modular ESS. That comes with services attached to it. We expect a lot more of that controller type business to launch services and project modeling, project design and asset management. And then separately, we expanded our team that advises customers on forecasting for wholesale energy markets. And so both of those, you should start to see either just, as Bill mentioned, growth in services line item or press releases around these customer wins and engagements.

是的。朱利安，這是普拉克什。我會提出兩點。當 Bill 討論毛利率增長戰略、長期計劃時，John 也提到了下個月，我們將安裝我們的第一個模塊化 ESS。它帶有附加的服務。我們預計會有更多此類控制器類型的業務推出服務和項目建模、項目設計和資產管理。然後，我們單獨擴大了我們的團隊，為客戶提供能源批發市場預測方面的建議。因此，正如 Bill 提到的那樣，您應該開始看到服務項目的增長或圍繞這些客戶贏得和參與的新聞稿。

Got it. And then with respect to PJM, I'd just quickly if I can. Obviously, they have disproportionate interconnection issues. How are you thinking about the confidence in the backlog translating given some of the time line issues as it pertains to kind of leaning into the PJM. I appreciate the margin comments about PJM, but just some of the interconnecting delay issues that we've seen there, how does that fit with A: Your backlog and mix there? And B: How you risk adjust, if you will.

知道了。然後關於 PJM，如果可以的話，我會盡快。顯然，它們存在不成比例的互連問題。考慮到一些時間線問題，您如何看待積壓翻譯的信心，因為它與傾向於 PJM 有關。我很欣賞關於 PJM 的保證金評論，但只是我們在那裡看到的一些互連延遲問題，這與 A：你的積壓和混合有什麼關係？ B：如果你願意的話，你會如何調整風險。

Yes. Right now, this is Prakesh again. Right now, I'd say the primary focus in the PJM market is behind the meter, where there's a templatized approach for interconnection approvals. We're not chasing very large, highly engineered front of the meter deals. So that's one strategy, and we're leveraging developers and EPC firms that corporate Fortune 500 accounts we're targeting have worked with -- for quite some time in deploying their solar project. So it's a different segment of the market, and we've seen a faster pace. But -- and then just context around your question on the backlog, it's still early days. So we just launched it turn of the year, so we don't have a significant component in the backlog just yet to risk weighted.

是的。現在，這又是 Prakesh。現在，我想說 PJM 市場的主要焦點在電錶後面，那裡有一種用於互連批准的模板化方法。我們不追求非常大的、高度設計的儀表前交易。所以這是一個策略，我們正在利用我們所針對的財富 500 強企業客戶與之合作過的開發商和 EPC 公司——在部署他們的太陽能項目方面已經有一段時間了。所以這是一個不同的市場部分，我們看到了更快的步伐。但是——然後只是圍繞你關於積壓的問題的背景，現在還處於早期階段。所以我們剛剛在今年年初推出了它，所以我們在積壓工作中沒有重要的組成部分尚未進行風險加權。

The next question comes from Thomas Boyes of Cowen.

下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Thomas Boyes。

Maybe the first one, I was just wondering if your sourcing strategy has changed at all post IRA. Have you held back on sourcing anything maybe beyond 1Q 2024 in a sort of securing domestic production as it comes online? And then maybe as a follow-up there, what do you think is reasonable to assume for U.S. battery supply to finally be available late 2024 or 2025?

也許是第一個，我只是想知道您的採購策略是否在 IRA 之後發生了變化。你有沒有在 2024 年第一季度之後停止採購任何東西，以確保國內生產上線？然後也許作為那裡的後續行動，你認為美國電池供應最終在 2024 年末或 2025 年可用的合理假設是什麼？

Yes. So thanks, Thomas. I'd say a couple of things. We have contracted supply for 2023 and making progress on 2024. As we've talked in previous calls, we continue to make opportunistic spot market purchases. And I think that served us well, and we'll continue to do that. I think our suppliers know if there's a change in one of their customers, I believe we're one of the first calls. And on the U.S. content piece, look, we're still a significant customer of Tesla's -- and we'll continue to work closely with them. They've been a long-term partner for us really since by 2013 or so, 2012.

是的。所以謝謝，托馬斯。我想說幾件事。我們已經簽訂了 2023 年的供應合同，並在 2024 年取得進展。正如我們在之前的電話會議中所說，我們繼續進行機會主義的現貨市場採購。我認為這對我們很有幫助，我們將繼續這樣做。我認為我們的供應商知道他們的某個客戶是否有變化，我相信我們是第一個打電話的人。在美國內容方面，看，我們仍然是特斯拉的重要客戶——我們將繼續與他們密切合作。自 2013 年左右、2012 年以來，他們一直是我們的長期合作夥伴。

And as far as new capacity coming online, I think specifically related to IRA, I'd say 24 months, maybe a little longer till we see some of that. And we're not really engaging just yet on that focus because we just -- we don't have that kind of visibility today on our bookings. So we'll probably start that in the summer, I would guess, as we get more clarity on who's coming in. Do you want to add anything, Bill?

至於新容量上線，我認為特別與 IRA 相關，我想說 24 個月，也許更長一點，直到我們看到其中的一些。而且我們還沒有真正參與到這個重點上，因為我們只是 - 我們今天在我們的預訂中沒有那種可見性。所以我們可能會在夏天開始，我猜，因為我們更清楚誰會進來。你想補充什麼嗎，比爾？

Yes. So I would -- just to put up on the point on John's comments. So we are fully booked in terms of contracted supply through the first quarter of 2024 that you shouldn't read that to mean that though we haven't contracted anything beyond that into 2024. I mean we've talked about that in prior calls where we're getting -- we're going further out. And I would make the distinction between being contracted and actually having the product on the ground. We think from a working capital standpoint, it's probably better for us to do some contracting. So I think that -- but for sure, we're talking with the folks that have made announcements around the domestic supply side of things. But of course, it's early days for them, right? I mean there's no -- that we're aware of, at least nobody has broken ground on a plant yet from a battery perspective. A lot of conversations around panels, inverters, batteries, et cetera. And we're monitoring that. Our supply chain team is monitoring that very closely to the extent that one of those groups is able to produce a product here in the U.S., I mean, it's a really interesting attribute from the standpoint of domestic content and how it works within the IRA. So it's something we're very closely monitoring. But for '23 the primary U.S. supplier for us is going to be Tesla. And then we're going to be buying stuff from Korea and, of course, Japan and China as well. So no real changes in the strategy other than the fact that, obviously, the IRA makes us kind of start to talking to some of the folks that we would not necessarily have been speaking with before because they didn't have plans in spots that were interesting to us.

是的。所以我會-- 只是提出約翰評論的重點。因此，我們在 2024 年第一季度的合同供應方面已經訂滿了，您不應該將其理解為儘管我們在 2024 年之後沒有簽訂任何合同。我的意思是我們在之前的電話中已經討論過這個問題我們正在——我們正在走得更遠。我會區分簽約和實際擁有產品之間的區別。我們認為，從營運資金的角度來看，我們做一些承包可能更好。所以我認為——但可以肯定的是，我們正在與那些已經就國內供應方面發表聲明的人進行交談。但當然，現在對他們來說還為時尚早，對吧？我的意思是沒有 - 我們知道，至少從電池的角度來看，還沒有人在工廠破土動工。很多關於面板、逆變器、電池等的討論。我們正在監視它。我們的供應鏈團隊正在密切監控其中一個集團能夠在美國生產產品的程度，我的意思是，從國內內容的角度來看，這是一個非常有趣的屬性以及它在 IRA 中的運作方式。所以這是我們正在密切關注的事情。但對於 23 年，我們的主要美國供應商將是特斯拉。然後我們將從韓國購買東西，當然還有日本和中國。因此，策略沒有真正的變化，除了 IRA 顯然讓我們開始與一些我們以前不一定會與之交談的人交談，因為他們沒有計劃對我們來說很有趣。

Great. And I appreciate the color there. Maybe just as my follow-up. I just wanted to check in on the cross-selling opportunities with AlsoEnergy. Could you give us an update there? And then maybe talk about your approach and kind of parsing through those 40,000-plus C&I sites and $6 billion still a number to think about? Or is that change after the kind of the pruning efforts?

偉大的。我很欣賞那裡的顏色。也許就像我的後續行動一樣。我只是想了解與 AlsoEnergy 的交叉銷售機會。你能告訴我們最新情況嗎？然後也許談談你的方法和解析那些 40,000 多個 C&I 網站和 60 億美元仍然是一個需要考慮的數字？還是經過那種修剪工作後發生了變化？

This is Prakesh. Yes, the $6 million is a good estimate. We have made some progress. We've analyzed upwards of 600 sites in a granular detail and have started the customer conversations. One statistic, I would point out, about 1/3 of our bookings in the BTM segment last year came from that cross-sell. So we're seeing early momentum there already.

這是普拉克什。是的，600 萬美元是一個不錯的估計。我們取得了一些進展。我們詳細分析了 600 多個站點，並開始了客戶對話。我要指出的一個統計數據是，去年我們在 BTM 細分市場中約有 1/3 的預訂來自交叉銷售。所以我們已經看到了早期的勢頭。

The next question comes from David Peters from Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 David Peters。

0:43:12

0:43:12

So just as it relates to the margin profile, can you maybe provide kind of a rough split of what guidance assumes for AlsoEnergy revenue versus Legacy battery, hardware and software? Just to the extent UFLPA issues linger beyond maybe expectations?

因此，正如它與利潤率相關，您能否提供一種粗略的劃分，說明 AlsoEnergy 收入與傳統電池、硬件和軟件的指導假設？就 UFLPA 問題持續到超出預期的程度？

Dave, thanks for the question. So as you can see from the various pieces, from the standpoint of AlsoEnergy for 2022 for us on a consolidated basis, they did about $58 million or so in revenue. They did more than that, of course, in 2022. We just didn't consolidate January. We expect to see strong growth there. You look at any of the Wood Mac data, they're presenting 100% growth. I don't -- and I would say I don't think we're going to see 100% revenue growth in the company, but we do expect to see significant growth from that part of the business. I mean, if you look at most of the publicly available data around solar, we should see anywhere from 20% to 40% growth in that business. And so a lot of it is going to be how quickly does UFLPA, how quickly does the anti-dumping rules of those come back. I mean there's been some chatter amongst various congressmen that you've probably seen that they're going to roll back the work that Biden had done. And that obviously, if that happens, that will obviously have a negative impact.

戴夫，謝謝你的提問。因此，正如您從各個部分中看到的那樣，從綜合來看我們 2022 年 AlsoEnergy 的角度來看，他們的收入約為 5800 萬美元。當然，他們在 2022 年做得更多。我們只是沒有合併 1 月。我們期望在那裡看到強勁的增長。你看看 Wood Mac 的任何數據，它們都呈現 100% 的增長。我不——我會說我不認為我們會看到公司 100% 的收入增長，但我們確實希望看到這部分業務的顯著增長。我的意思是，如果您查看有關太陽能的大部分公開數據，我們應該會看到該業務增長 20% 至 40%。因此，其中很大一部分將是 UFLPA 的執行速度，這些反傾銷規則的恢復速度。我的意思是，各位國會議員之間一直在喋喋不休，你可能已經看到他們將推翻拜登所做的工作。顯然，如果發生這種情況，那顯然會產生負面影響。

So the stuff that we're going to be monitoring very carefully were, like as I mentioned before, I mean, our backlog is up 42% on a year-over-year basis. And so as we look at -- and this is -- and so I'll make a fairly large distinction between backlog on the solar part of the business and backlog on the storage part of the business. The solar backlog turns into revenue pretty quickly, 6 months or less. And many of it is like 3 to 4 months. And so it's able to churn pretty quickly. So we feel like if those projects are able to move forward in the way that we're seeing from our partners and what we're hearing we're pretty optimistic that we're going to have a really nice year on the solar side of the business. It really is -- it's positioned to snap back. I mean, I think we've talked about that even as early as last summer when we were seeing some of the early slowdowns as a result of the antidumping and kind of really harkened back to the 2016, 2017 time period when solar really kind of took it kind of had a tough period as well and then snap back really strong in the next period. So we'll have to see, which is why in part why -- I think we're a little bit conservative in terms of the gross margins and some of the revenue growth is that we want to actually have that turn into revenue and gross margin as opposed to just having good feelings about what's going to happen.

因此，我們將非常仔細地監控的內容是，就像我之前提到的那樣，我的意思是，我們的積壓訂單同比增長了 42%。因此，當我們看 - 這是 - 所以我將在業務的太陽能部分積壓和業務存儲部分的積壓之間做出相當大的區別。太陽能積壓訂單很快就能轉化為收入，只需 6 個月或更短時間。其中很多是 3 到 4 個月。所以它能夠很快地流失。所以我們覺得，如果這些項目能夠按照我們從合作夥伴那裡看到的和我們聽到的那樣向前推進，我們將非常樂觀地認為我們將在太陽能方面度過一個非常美好的一年這生意。它確實是 - 它的定位是快速恢復。我的意思是，我認為早在去年夏天我們就已經討論過這個問題，當時我們看到反傾銷導致的一些早期放緩，並且有點回溯到 2016 年、2017 年的時間段，當時太陽能確實有點也經歷了一段艱難的時期，然後在下一個時期強勢反彈。所以我們必須看看，這就是為什麼 - 我認為我們在毛利率方面有點保守，一些收入增長是我們希望真正將其轉化為收入和毛利率保證金而不是僅僅對將要發生的事情有良好的感覺。

Yes. I'd add a couple of quick points as well, David. Number one, the RFQs that we've seen year-to-date are up 2x versus 2022. So it feels strong coming out of the gate. And I'd also highlight that as we talked in the last earnings call, their solar asset performance management business exceeded market growth last year, and we expect more of the same this year.

是的。大衛，我還要補充幾點。第一，我們今年迄今看到的 RFQ 比 2022 年增長了 2 倍。所以剛開始時感覺很強勁。我還要強調的是，正如我們在上次財報電話會議上所說，他們的太陽能資產績效管理業務去年超過了市場增長，我們預計今年會有更多相同的增長。

That's helpful. I appreciate all that color. Just my follow-up then is just wondering if you can provide a sense of where things stand today with interconnection request timing broadly. Just trying to see if it'd be possible to kind of parse out where the CARR metric could be for 2023, if that bottleneck were to ease some and kind of just what you assume, I guess, for '23.

這很有幫助。我很欣賞那種顏色。那麼我的後續行動只是想知道您是否可以通過廣泛的互連請求時間來了解今天的情況。只是想看看是否有可能解析出 2023 年 CARR 指標的位置，如果這個瓶頸能夠緩解一些你假設的情況，我猜，23 年。

Prakesh, do you want to start maybe Mike to jump in.

Prakesh，你想開始嗎？也許 Mike 會加入進來。

Yes. I'd say, so far, we're seeing status quo around interconnect conversion of delivered hardware. We have undertaken -- and I'll hand it to Mike Carlson, our CEO, to talk about some of the initiatives, but we are taking a very rigorous approach to driving that faster and that -- that was kind of what prompted Bill to mention. We're looking to double our operating AUM this year. Mike?

是的。我想說，到目前為止，我們看到的是交付硬件的互連轉換的現狀。我們已經承諾 - 我將把它交給我們的首席執行官 Mike Carlson 來談談一些舉措，但我們正在採取非常嚴格的方法來更快地推動它 - 這就是促使比爾提到。我們希望今年的運營資產管理規模翻一番。麥克風？

Yes so Dav this is Mike Carlson. What we're doing, it's kind of a two-pronged approach on everything related to getting these assets into the field and obviously interconnects a big piece of it. But internally, we put a lot more, I guess, you call it, rigor around project management as these assets are secured by us and then getting into the field for our developer owners. And then turning that same focus of project management to our partners. So they are aware of and leveraging every opportunity they can move that forward with the interconnect progress, if that's what's holding them up. And what we want to make sure is as we get through that backlog or that bottleneck of interconnect that we fundamentally don't have any direct control over but we've got the expertise and knowledge of how to move through it as rapidly as possible. We don't lose any other time to moving these assets into the field and getting them commissioned and online. So that's really the focus we expect, we won't definitely solve the problem, but we'll improve on the performance of it as we go forward.

是的，Dav，這是 Mike Carlson。我們正在做的，這是一種雙管齊下的方法，涉及與將這些資產投入現場相關的所有事情，並且顯然將其中的很大一部分相互聯繫起來。但在內部，我們在項目管理方面投入了更多，我想，你稱之為嚴格，因為這些資產由我們保護，然後進入我們的開發所有者的領域。然後將同樣的項目管理重點轉向我們的合作夥伴。因此，他們意識到並利用每一個機會，他們可以隨著互連的進步向前推進，如果這是阻礙他們前進的原因。我們想要確保的是，當我們通過積壓或互連瓶頸時，我們基本上無法直接控制，但我們擁有如何盡快解決的專業知識和知識。我們不會浪費任何其他時間將這些資產轉移到現場並讓它們投入使用並上線。所以這確實是我們期望的重點，我們不會絕對解決問題，但我們會在前進的過程中改進它的性能。

The next question comes from Joseph Osha of Guggenheim Partners.

下一個問題來自 Guggenheim Partners 的 Joseph Osha。

Kind of following on the previous question. You all have talked a lot about projects that are out there on the storage side that show up in your contracted AUM that aren't interconnected and they're not generating revenue. And we've kind of gotten the sense that there would be, at some point, a nice sort of step-up as those things came online and started to generate service revenue for you. So my question is as follows: Can you quantify how, maybe in gigawatt hours, how many projects in this contracted storage AUM you have that aren't interconnected and give me some sense as to how much of that might manage to make it into operation in 2023. And then I have a follow-up.

有點像上一個問題。你們都談論了很多關於存儲方面的項目，這些項目出現在您簽訂的 AUM 中，這些項目沒有相互關聯，也沒有產生收入。我們已經感覺到，在某些時候，隨著這些東西上線並開始為您產生服務收入，將會有一個很好的提升。所以我的問題如下：你能否量化一下，也許以千兆瓦時為單位，你擁有的這個合同存儲 AUM 中有多少項目沒有相互關聯，並讓我了解其中有多少項目可以投入運營2023 年。然後我有一個後續行動。

Yes. So Joe, thanks for the question. I appreciate that. At this point, we don't break out the specifics of that. So it's difficult for me to give you exact numbers. But I think one point you can definitely take into account is that we do expect operating AUM to double this year. And so on the storage side of the business. And I think that is a great indicator that, as you said, I think there is a bit of a backlog of projects, which we're able -- we believe that we're going to be able to turn on. And I think that, as we look at the future, and I think Mike talked a lot about this already, is how we're going to do that, how are we going to speed up the conversion from a deal when it goes from a booking to equipment delivered to the system actually being operational. And I think that -- because that's really, as we all know, that's when the software kicks in, that's where -- and that's the highest gross margin part of the business. And so for us, it's a huge focus making sure that, that process is happening as quickly as possible.

是的。喬，謝謝你的提問。我很感激。在這一點上，我們不會打破它的細節。所以我很難給你確切的數字。但我認為您絕對可以考慮的一點是，我們確實預計今年的運營 AUM 將翻一番。在業務的存儲方面等等。我認為這是一個很好的指標，正如你所說，我認為有一些項目積壓，我們能夠 - 我們相信我們能夠開啟。我認為，當我們展望未來時，我認為 Mike 已經談了很多，我們將如何做到這一點，當交易從預訂交付給實際運行的系統的設備。而且我認為 - 因為正如我們所知，那真的是軟件開始的時候，那就是那裡 - 這是業務中毛利率最高的部分。因此，對我們來說，確保該過程盡快發生是一個巨大的重點。

Okay. And have you shared what the actual operating AUM number is?

好的。您是否分享了實際運營的 AUM 數字是多少？

We have not.

我們還沒有。

Okay. So -- but just to follow on that then, if your operating AUM is doubling and you're bringing additional projects -- you're executing on additional projects and it's, I think, reasonable if you look at your CARR and what the annualized run rate of your revenue -- your service revenue is right now. I guess I'll ask the question the way a lot of other people have asked it. Why is this service revenue number not going up a lot more? Why is it not doubling?

好的。所以——但只是為了繼續下去，如果你的運營資產管理規模翻了一番，並且你帶來了額外的項目——你正在執行額外的項目，我認為，如果你看看你的 CARR 和年化收益是多少，這是合理的你的收入運行率——你的服務收入是現在的。我想我會像很多其他人問的那樣問這個問題。為什麼這個服務收入數字沒有增加很多？為什麼不加倍？

Well, it is growing at 75% rate. So I think that's pretty significant growth and then when you look at…

好吧，它正以 75% 的速度增長。所以我認為這是非常顯著的增長，然後當你看到......

Not to belabor it, but you put a CARR -- an end of year 2023 CARR metric of whatever is 80% to 90% and you're at 65% currently. So I guess I'm trying to understand why that CARR number, which is a reasonable bogey for the de-annualized software and services run rate, why that's not going up more given what you're saying about adding to the operating base?

不是誇誇其談，而是你提出了一個 CARR——2023 年底的 CARR 指標，無論是 80% 到 90%，而你目前是 65%。所以我想我試圖理解為什麼 CARR 數字，對於去年化的軟件和服務運行率來說是一個合理的柏忌，為什麼考慮到你所說的增加運營基礎，它沒有上升更多？

Well, so CARR wouldn't increase as a result of operating assets first. So, I think that's an important distinction. CARR is the contracted amount. So that CARR is going to increase based on the amount of software, let's say, that is attached on an annual basis to a particular contract. The software number that we recognize as revenue in the business is tied to the operating assets. And so that's where I'd say like when you look at the growth rates that we've had so far about 9% in the third quarter, 17% in the fourth quarter, that's where you're seeing the actual operating assets being able to generate actual revenue and then gross margin. So CARR is an indicator of what will happen not what has happened. And so when we think -- when I say, hey, operating assets are going to double, that means that we're going to have a faster conversion of CARR into ARR than what we've had. So that's a distinction that I would make.

好吧，所以 CARR 不會因為運營資產而增加。所以，我認為這是一個重要的區別。 CARR 是合同金額。因此，CARR 將根據每年附加到特定合同的軟件數量而增加。我們確認為業務收入的軟件編號與運營資產相關聯。所以這就是我想說的，當你看到我們第三季度到目前為止的增長率約為 9%，第四季度為 17%，這就是你看到的實際運營資產能夠產生實際收入，然後產生毛利率。因此，CARR 是將要發生的事情而非已經發生的事情的指標。因此，當我們認為 - 當我說，嘿，運營資產將翻一番時，這意味著我們將比以往更快地將 CARR 轉換為 ARR。這就是我要做出的區分。

Okay. I'll take it off-line, but I think that the $64,000 question here is what is the software and services run rate going to be by the end of next year.

好的。我會把它脫機，但我認為這裡的 64,000 美元問題是到明年年底軟件和服務的運行率是多少。

Well, I think I would say -- the way I would answer that is a 75% growth rate on what we've currently reported. So that's the number that we've talked about. It's like the services are going to grow at a compound rate across the 3-year time period, it's 75%. So if you look at what the services number was for 2022, we expect that number to grow at 75% in 2023.

好吧，我想我會說——我回答這個問題的方式是我們目前報告的增長率為 75%。這就是我們談到的數字。這就像服務將在 3 年期間以復合增長率增長，為 75%。因此，如果您查看 2022 年的服務數量，我們預計該數字到 2023 年將增長 75%。

The next question comes from Biju Perincheril of South Cana.

下一個問題來自南加納的 Biju Perincheril。

So I guess my question was also related to CARR and sort of, when I sort of looked at -- compare your CARR to asset under management, it's been pretty stable through last year. Because when I look at the guidance, it seems like there's a step down and that how much of AUM is translating into CARR. I guess, is that related to project size or is there a thing going on in the software attach ratio?

所以我想我的問題也與 CARR 有關，當我有點看 - 將你的 CARR 與管理資產進行比較時，它在去年一直非常穩定。因為當我查看指南時，似乎有一個下降，有多少 AUM 正在轉化為 CARR。我想，這與項目大小有關，還是軟件附加率有問題？

It's not that everything we sell has -- all hardware has 100 software attachment. Really, the dynamic that's happening, and Bill mentioned this in his discussion is we're selling and winning much larger front of the meter deals and some of those are expanding beyond 20 years in term. And so when you see the average length of the software terms expand, that's bringing down the per year CARR conversion.

並不是我們銷售的所有東西都有——所有硬件都有 100 個軟件附件。真的，正在發生的動態，比爾在他的討論中提到的是，我們正在銷售和贏得更大的儀表前交易，其中一些交易的期限超過 20 年。因此，當您看到軟件條款的平均長度增加時，這會降低每年的 CARR 轉換率。

Got it. That's helpful. And then I think on the last call, you sort of mentioned the -- you're starting to see the BTM mix come up with data, I think, in your pipeline. So can you give us sort of an update where you stand now, what are the recent bookings? Are you still sort of setup for the bookings in the 90:10 ratio or has that moved?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後我認為在最後一次通話中，你提到了——我認為你開始看到 BTM 組合在你的管道中產生數據。那麼，您能否向我們介紹一下您現在所處的位置，最近的預訂情況如何？您是否仍在按照 90:10 的比例設置預訂，還是已經改變了？

We really have, Biju, and thanks for the questions. So one of the -- certainly, one of the things that we've seen is that larger FTM or our ability to win larger FTM deals. So what that tends to do in terms of the bookings and then, of course, the backlog is it weights it heavily towards FTM projects. So we are absolutely increasing both the percentage and absolute values of the BTM side of our business, but it's a smaller part. It's just -- those are just smaller projects by their very nature, they're not going to grow in size nearly as fast as the FTM projects. And so I think one of the things -- one of the benefits of the integration of AlsoEnergy in STEM has been a -- I'll call it refocus on BTM. And we, I think, are going to continue to invest in that area. It's where Stem got started years ago. And I think it's a market which we can do very well, and it has better -- as a compare to FTM, it has better margin attributes to it, not necessarily the same term. The terms of the FTM deals are longer, but the margins both on hardware and software are a bit better. And it's also within the context of our classifications, all the EV businesses in BTM.

Biju，我們真的有，感謝您提出問題。因此，其中一個 - 當然，我們已經看到的一件事是更大的 FTM 或我們贏得更大 FTM 交易的能力。因此，就預訂而言，這往往會產生什麼影響，當然，積壓的訂單會嚴重影響 FTM 項目。所以我們絕對增加了我們業務的 BTM 方面的百分比和絕對值，但它是一個較小的部分。只是 - 那些本質上只是較小的項目，它們的規模增長速度不會像 FTM 項目那麼快。所以我認為其中一件事——將 AlsoEnergy 集成到 STEM 中的好處之一是——我稱之為重新關注 BTM。我認為，我們將繼續在該領域進行投資。這是 Stem 多年前開始的地方。而且我認為這是一個我們可以做得很好的市場，而且它有更好的 - 與 FTM 相比，它具有更好的保證金屬性，不一定是相同的術語。 FTM 交易的期限更長，但硬件和軟件的利潤都好一些。它也在我們的分類範圍內，即 BTM 中的所有 EV 業務。

And so that, we've talked pretty consistently about the ability because we're delivering customers more value that we'll be able to drive higher software attach rates and actual dollars. So we're really excited about the BTM or behind the meter side. I think it's going to be a nice growth area for us. But it's always going to -- just because of the absolute size of the projects, it's always going to get a bit swamped by what we're doing on FTM.

因此，我們一直在談論這種能力，因為我們正在為客戶提供更多價值，我們將能夠推動更高的軟件附加率和實際收入。所以我們對 BTM 或儀表側的背後感到非常興奮。我認為這對我們來說將是一個很好的增長領域。但它總是會——僅僅因為項目的絕對規模，它總是會被我們在 FTM 上所做的事情淹沒。

It's certainly more incoming than we've had in the past Biju post IRA in particular, the corporates. I think we discussed this in the past is we're seeing Fortune 100s coming to us asking to look at 200 sites across the country, and we're trying to operationalize that process to enable that.

這肯定比我們過去 Biju 後 IRA 收到的更多，尤其是公司。我想我們過去討論過這個問題，我們看到財富 100 強企業來找我們，要求查看全國 200 個站點，我們正在努力實施該流程以實現這一目標。

The next question comes from Justin Clare of ROTH Capital Partners.

下一個問題來自 ROTH Capital Partners 的 Justin Clare。

So first one here, I just wanted to ask if you could give us a sense for how much of your revenue for Q4 was the 80% gross margin software sales? And how that was split between your battery software and your solar monitoring software. And then looking into 2023, are you expecting that 80% margin software revenue to drive the vast majority of your services growth? Or is there a meaningful contribution from the onetime kind of services sales?

所以第一個在這裡，我只想問你是否可以讓我們了解一下你在第四季度的收入中有多少是 80% 的毛利率軟件銷售？以及如何在電池軟件和太陽能監控軟件之間進行分配。然後展望 2023 年，您是否預計 80% 的軟件收入利潤率將推動您服務的絕大部分增長？還是曾經的服務銷售有有意義的貢獻？

So thanks for the question. I think the first point I would mention is that all of the recent additions in software in terms of revenue are at the high gross margin rate. So that's 100% what's going on there. And mostly, that's because of the way we shifted our model from a structured finance model to a straight by cell. And we did that now a couple of years ago. So everything over the last 3, 4 years has been that's added into the services line has been the high-margin software. So from that, we don't -- then your other question, what's the breakout. We have not done that yet. Likely, we will in the future. But at this point, we're not breaking out those individual components. AlsoEnergy, of course, and you can see from what they -- from the tables that are in the back of the PowerPoint deck which post and you can see kind of what the software and hardware component of that business is, which we think is what makes it particularly interesting in what's driving that 60% gross margin across that business.

所以謝謝你的問題。我想我要提到的第一點是，最近在收入方面增加的所有軟件都處於高毛利率。這就是 100% 發生的事情。大多數情況下，這是因為我們將模型從結構化融資模型轉變為直接單元的方式。幾年前我們現在就這樣做了。因此，在過去 3、4 年中，添加到服務線的所有內容都是高利潤軟件。因此，從那以後，我們沒有 - 然後你的另一個問題，突破是什麼。我們還沒有這樣做。很可能，我們會在未來。但在這一點上，我們並沒有分解那些單獨的組件。當然，還有能源，你可以從他們那裡看到——從 PowerPoint 平台後面的表格中，你可以看到該業務的軟件和硬件組件是什麼，我們認為是什麼使該業務的毛利率達到 60% 的原因變得特別有趣。

Okay. Great. And then just one more contracted storage AUM up, I think it was about 4% sequentially in Q4, but you had very strong bookings in the quarter. So just wondering if you could better help us understand why the contracted AUM didn't move upward more significantly. Did you see any meaningful customer cancellations on battery storage software contracts or was there maybe a higher mix of solar monitoring bookings? Any additional color would be helpful.

好的。偉大的。然後又增加了一個合同存儲 AUM，我認為它在第四季度連續增長了大約 4%，但你在本季度的預訂非常強勁。所以只是想知道你是否可以更好地幫助我們理解為什麼合同 AUM 沒有更顯著地向上移動。您是否看到任何有意義的客戶取消了電池存儲軟件合同，或者是否有更多的太陽能監控預訂組合？任何額外的顏色都會有所幫助。

Sure. And again, so we had -- so we did a $460 million in bookings in the quarter. Unfortunately, we had a call it, rounded $140 million cancellation. So that definitely tamped down the growth in that particular metric.

當然。再一次，我們有 - 所以我們在本季度進行了 4.6 億美元的預訂。不幸的是，我們取消了約 1.4 億美元的訂單。因此，這肯定會抑制該特定指標的增長。

The next question comes from Abhi Sinha of Northland Financial.

下一個問題來自 Northland Financial 的 Abhi Sinha。

Just trying to understand the PJM market, it's interesting that you get into that. So maybe you can just give some idea on what percentage of 2023 revenue comes from that I'm trying to understand what it takes for you to bring in new market and in a new area. So maybe you can provide some color on like how that market you expect to unfold in 2023, '24, '25 or something like that.

只是想了解 PJM 市場，你進入這個市場很有趣。因此，也許您可以就 2023 年收入的百分比給出一些想法，我試圖了解您需要什麼才能進入新市場和新領域。因此，也許您可以提供一些顏色，例如您希望在 2023 年、24 年、25 年或類似時間展開的市場。

Yes, I can -- I'll start, Prakesh you want to jump in. So first of all, one of the things that we did a few years ago is align with channel partners through distribution. And that gives us a very interesting footprint across the country. So as we look at new markets, we have distributors and partners in those areas already so that kind of (inaudible) concern that you would have is eliminated through that.

是的，我可以 - 我會開始，Prakesh 你想加入。所以首先，我們幾年前做的一件事是通過分銷與渠道合作夥伴保持一致。這讓我們在全國留下了非常有趣的足跡。因此，當我們著眼於新市場時，我們已經在這些領域擁有分銷商和合作夥伴，因此消除了您可能會有的那種（聽不清）擔憂。

The other piece is our software platform through Athena is highly translatable into new markets very quickly. So we believe we have the right technology offering for the market. We believe we have the commercial force to go into executing that market. And I just think that our ability with Athena to co-optimize in a variety of complex value streams as we've proven out in many markets is highly applicable in PJM. And certainly, our coincident peak track record has been very good if you look at some markets like Ontario.

另一部分是我們通過 Athena 的軟件平台可以非常快速地轉化為新市場。因此，我們相信我們擁有適合市場的技術產品。我們相信我們擁有進入該市場的商業力量。我只是認為我們與 Athena 在各種複雜價值流中共同優化的能力，正如我們在許多市場中證明的那樣，在 PJM 中非常適用。當然，如果你看看像安大略這樣的一些市場，我們的巧合峰值記錄就非常好。

So just some of our past experiences, we believe we can execute in that market very effectively. And when you look at the size of that market being so much larger than California, and our execution here in California has been very strong. Market leading -- market share over the past few years. And then you look at some of the higher cost from a transmission standpoint, it's a really compelling opportunity for the company.

因此，僅憑我們過去的一些經驗，我們相信我們可以非常有效地在那個市場上執行。當你看到那個市場的規模比加利福尼亞大得多時，我們在加利福尼亞的執行力非常強。市場領先——過去幾年的市場份額。然後你從傳輸的角度來看一些更高的成本，這對公司來說是一個非常有吸引力的機會。

I would just add -- this is Prakesh, that we are optimistic about this market. The value that we can create for our corporate customers in that geography is tremendous. We are tempering our expectations around what gets installed in '23, just given some of the interconnection time lines that you see in PJM. It's not exactly the case in behind the meter, but we wanted to be conservative there, but certainly seeing significant interest in the pipeline and early bookings as well.

我只想補充一點——我是 Prakesh，我們對這個市場持樂觀態度。我們可以為該地區的企業客戶創造巨大的價值。鑑於您在 PJM 中看到的一些互連時間表，我們正在降低對 23 年安裝內容的期望。儀表後面的情況並非完全如此，但我們希望在那裡保持保守，但肯定會看到對管道和早期預訂的濃厚興趣。

Got it. Sure. So just one more as a follow-up. As we see more hardware, I mean, hardware product business is continue to get a little bit more struggling part of it. So as you as you make move towards more of the software part. So how do we look at the trajectory here as the business transitions more and more towards the software only, I guess? I mean, when do you consider the business to be software only and what the trajectory looks like?

知道了。當然。所以只是一個跟進。當我們看到更多的硬件時，我的意思是，硬件產品業務繼續在其中苦苦掙扎。因此，隨著您朝著更多的軟件部分邁進。那麼，我猜，隨著業務越來越多地轉向軟件，我們如何看待這裡的軌跡？我的意思是，您什麼時候認為業務只是軟件？發展軌跡是什麼樣的？

I'm not -- I didn't totally understand your question, but if I -- if I understood right, you're asking what's going to be the long-term distribution of hardware and software on contracts. Is that fair?

我不是——我不完全理解你的問題，但如果我——如果我理解正確的話，你會問什麼是合同硬件和軟件的長期分配。這公平嗎？

No, I was thinking like more as the business heads on fast forward a few years, is it not like more and more towards getting more software-only business? And are we heading towards that? If that's the case.

不，我在想，隨著幾年來業務的快速發展，是否越來越傾向於獲得更多純軟件業務？我們正朝著那個方向前進嗎？如果是這樣的話。

Yes. We think software and services is definitely going to be a bigger part of the business. I mean -- and I think that is, as we've discussed, like as we move up the size graph in terms of how big of size projects that we're working on, it's less and less likely that will supply the hardware, which is all around the project and Mike is leading on the unit controller -- the unified system that we're working on and are going to ship here this quarter. So I think longer term, it's going to make sense for companies to probably do procurement for themselves on the batteries -- the larger projects. The smaller ones, we think that won't be the case. But -- and that's why I said earlier on when I talked about the bookings growth on an absolute basis, $1.1 billion in 2022, obviously, a slower growth rate in 2023 when comparing those 2 time periods. And I think over time, you're going to see more and more of that.

是的。我們認為軟件和服務肯定會在業務中佔據更大的比重。我的意思是 - 我認為，正如我們所討論的那樣，就像我們在我們正在處理的項目規模方面向上移動規模圖一樣，提供硬件的可能性越來越小，這是整個項目，邁克領導單元控制器——我們正在開發的統一系統，將在本季度交付。所以我認為從長遠來看，公司可能會在電池上為自己採購 - 更大的項目。較小的，我們認為情況並非如此。但是——這就是為什麼我早些時候在談到絕對預訂量增長時說，2022 年為 11 億美元，顯然，與這兩個時期相比，2023 年的增長率會放緩。而且我認為隨著時間的推移，你會看到越來越多這樣的事情。

I mean it's an exciting part of the market for us. It's a much more capital light, which we've always talked about. It will be easier from a working capital standpoint, if we're not taking all of that battery or the economic value onto our balance sheet. So it's definitely something that you should expect to see growing as the business matures.

我的意思是這對我們來說是一個令人興奮的市場部分。這是一個更資本的光，我們一直在談論它。如果我們不將所有電池或經濟價值計入資產負債表，從營運資本的角度來看會更容易。因此，隨著業務的成熟，這絕對是您應該期望看到的增長。

Maybe we can assume that '25, '26, could that be a software-only business or that's too aggressive?

也許我們可以假設'25、'26，這可能是純軟件業務還是過於激進？

I think we're still going to be selling hardware. I mean I don't want anybody to hear that commentary and think like, "Oh, they're not going to be selling any hardware. I think we're not going to be selling hardware on the very largest projects to make a distinction between those 2 things is there's -- like last year, we recorded over $300 million in hardware sales. I don't think that number is going to go to 0 anytime soon. And with the forecast that we've given for 2023, you're looking at a number north of $500 million in terms of hardware sales. So it's definitely not a business, which we think is going to go to 0. It's just going to go -- I think it's going to mature and that the larger projects with the more -- with a developer that what I would call is be fully integrated, that has procurement capabilities. We're not going to be buying hardware for them. But for many of these other partners that we're working with today, we will be.

我認為我們仍將銷售硬件。我的意思是我不想讓任何人聽到這些評論然後想，“哦，他們不會銷售任何硬件。我認為我們不會在最大的項目上銷售硬件來區分這兩件事之間是——就像去年一樣，我們的硬件銷售額超過 3 億美元。我認為這個數字不會很快降為 0。根據我們對 2023 年的預測，你就硬件銷售額而言，我們正在尋找超過 5 億美元的數字。所以這絕對不是一項業務，我們認為它會變成 0。它只是會走——我認為它會成熟，而且規模越大與更多的項目 - 我稱之為完全集成的開發人員，具有採購能力。我們不會為他們購買硬件。但對於我們今天合作的許多其他合作夥伴， 我們將。

I would add that the amount of our developer standardizing on Athena is growing. So I think even if they do that, we continue to see them having a need for software. So the Athena platform is ideal. And to echo Bill's comment, we are seeing many more software-only deals, building in the pipeline with our commercial team. And so I'm bullish on that front as well.

我要補充一點，我們的開發人員在 Athena 上進行標準化的數量正在增長。所以我認為即使他們這樣做了，我們也會繼續看到他們對軟件的需求。所以雅典娜平台是理想的。為了回應 Bill 的評論，我們看到更多的純軟件交易正在與我們的商業團隊進行合作。所以我也看好這方面。

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to John Carrington for any closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給 John Carrington 作閉幕詞。

Sure. I want to thank everyone for joining us on our fourth quarter and full year 2022 earnings call. We look forward to speaking with you during our 1Q call. And again, thank you all for joining.

當然。我要感謝大家參加我們第四季度和 2022 年全年的財報電話會議。我們期待在第一季度的電話會議中與您交談。再次感謝大家的加入。

This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating, and have a pleasant day.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與，祝您度過愉快的一天。