Stewart Information Services Corp (STC) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Hello, and thank you for joining the Stewart Information Services, second quarter 2026 earnings call.

    您好,感謝您參加 Stewart Information Services 2026 年第二季財報電話會議。

  • (Operator Instructions) Please note today's call is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to turn today's conference over to Kat Bass, director of Investor relations.

    (接線員指示) 請注意,今天的電話會議將被錄音。現在我很榮幸將今天的會議交給投資人關係總監 Kat Bass。

  • Please go ahead.

    請開始。

  • Kathryn Bass - Investor Relations

    Kathryn Bass - Investor Relations

  • Thank you for joining us today for Stuart's second quarter 2026 earnings conference call, we will be discussing results that were released yesterday after the close, joining me today are CEO Fred Effeer and CFO David Heisey, to listen online, please go to the stewart.com website to access the link for this conference call.

    感謝各位今天參加 Stewart 2026 年第二季財報電話會議。我們將討論昨日收盤後發布的業績結果。今天與我一同出席的有執行長 Fred Effeer 與財務長 David Heisey。若要線上收聽,請至 stewart.com 網站取得本次電話會議連結。

  • This conference call may contain forward-looking statements that involve a number of risks and uncertainties, please refer to the company's press release and other filings with the.

    本次電話會議可能包含前瞻性陳述,涉及多項風險與不確定性,請參閱公司新聞稿及向

  • CC for a discussion of the risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially.

    CC 提交的其他文件,以了解可能導致實際結果與預期有重大差異的風險與不確定性之討論。

  • During our call we will discuss the non-GAAP measures for reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures, please refer to the appendix in today's earnings release, which is available on our website at stewart.com.

    在本次電話會議中,我們將討論非 GAAP 指標。關於這些非 GAAP 指標的調節,請參閱今日財報新聞稿的附錄,該文件可於 stewart.com 取得。

  • Let me now turn the call over to Fred.

    現在我把電話交給 Fred。

  • Frederick Eppinger - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Frederick Eppinger - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you for joining us today for Stuart's second quarter 2026 earnings conference call.

    感謝各位今天參加 Stewart 2026 年第二季財報電話會議。

  • Yesterday we released the financial results for the second quarter, I will kick off today's called an overview of our performance, followed by our outlook on the housing market, I will then cover our results in strategic direction by business.

    昨日我們公布了第二季財務結果。我將先概述我們的表現,接著分享對房市的展望,然後按各業務說明我們的成果與策略方向。

  • After my remark, my remarks, I'll then turn over to David for additional commentary on the results, I'm very pleased with the second quarter results, we sustained our growth momentum in each of our business lines and strengthen our future earnings outlook by significantly investing in some additional business opportunities.

    在我發言之後,我會把電話交給 David,請他就結果提供更多評論。我對第二季的表現非常滿意;我們在各條業務線都維持成長動能,並透過對額外商機的大幅投資,強化未來獲利展望。

  • Our results for the first half of the year reflects the efforts we have made to grow the company and improve earnings, our year-to-date results demonstrated our success at growing both top and bottom lines, year-to-date, we have grown revenues by 26% and we adjusted pre-tax income by 45%, all while the housing market remains at multi-decade lows.

    今年上半年業績反映了我們為擴大公司規模並提升獲利所做的努力。年初至今的結果顯示,我們在營收與獲利兩端皆成功成長:年初至今營收成長 26%,調整後稅前利益成長 45%,即使房市仍處於數十年低點。

  • Are among the strongest of over 24%, earnings growth of the quarter was 13%, with slower growth driven by a decision to make some significant additional investments in individuals and teams to boost our organic growth initiatives in 3 of our title businesses in the quarter we made additional investments in individuals and teams of around $8 million capture these targeted business opportunities.

    我們的利潤率仍屬強勁,超過 24%;本季獲利成長為 13%,成長放緩主要是因為我們決定在本季於三項產權(title)業務中,對人員與團隊進行額外且重大的投資,以推動有機成長計畫。本季我們在相關人員與團隊上的額外投資約 800 萬美元,以掌握這些鎖定的商機。

  • I'm excited about these opportunities and believe we should see the full impact of these hires over the next 2 to 4 quarter.

    我對這些機會感到振奮,並相信在未來 2 到 4 個季度將能看到這些新聘人員的完整效益。

  • Even with those investments, I believe we can deliver earnings growth that will outpace revenue growth over the second half and for the full year for the overall company.

    即使進行上述投資,我仍相信在下半年以及全年,就整體公司而言,我們能交出獲利成長快於營收成長的表現。

  • I am very encouraged by our strong momentum in when considering current housing market conditions.

    在考量目前房市狀況下,我對我們強勁的成長動能感到非常鼓舞。

  • Growth in the existing home sales has been very modest again year over year, up 2% for the first half of 26, but still hovering around the 4 million annual units continuing the multi-year slump at the onset of 26, we expect the existing home cells to improve around 6 to 8%, however, given the position of interest rates as as a result of the macro and geographical conditions, we now anticipate is a much softer improvement with growth more likely topping around 2%.

    既有住宅銷售年增幅度仍相當有限;2026 年上半年年增 2%,但仍徘徊在年化約 400 萬戶,延續多年低迷。2026 年初我們原預期既有住宅銷售可改善約 6% 至 8%;然而,鑑於宏觀與地緣情勢導致利率水準維持在較高位置,我們現在預期改善幅度將明顯偏弱,成長更可能僅約 2% 封頂。

  • When compared to last year.

    相較於去年。

  • Keeping us solidly in the low 4 million existing house sales range.

    使我們仍穩定落在既有住宅銷售年化 400 萬戶出頭的區間。

  • Or may induce some positive existing home sales momentum year over year, the annualized numbers remain in that 4 to 401 range, home prices continue to hold.

    這可能帶來一些既有住宅銷售的年增正向動能,但年化數字仍在 400 萬至 401 萬的範圍內;房價持續維持韌性。

  • And slightly increase around 1.5% for the quarter, even as we see more inventory coming into place, reflecting the band still built into the system.

    即便我們看到更多庫存進入市場,本季房價仍小幅上升約 1.5%,反映系統中仍存在的供給受限。

  • The charge of owners of under 3% rates continues to slowly shrink, coming in about 19.5% from the high of 25% of outstanding mortgages several years ago, this implies that life events are slowly inciting some buyers into the marketplace.

    持有 3% 以下利率的屋主占比持續緩慢下降,約為 19.5%,低於數年前未償房貸中 25% 的高點;這意味著人生事件正逐步促使部分買方進入市場。

  • Interest rates remain the critical factor for potential home virus con consider the turbine when they enter the market, and in the 1st quarter we felt the positive effects of rates moving down towards 6% range and felt the dynamic shift as they moved.

    利率仍是潛在購屋者在決定何時進場時的關鍵因素。第一季我們感受到利率下滑至約 6% 區間的正面效果;而當利率回升時,我們也感受到動態的轉變。

  • Back up around 6.5, which is where we are hovering throughout the 7 quarter.

    利率回升至約 6.5% 左右,而這也是我們在整個第 7 季期間大致徘徊的水準。

  • Turning to our business results, our national commercial commercial services business continue to deliver strong growth in the core total domestic commercial premiums grew 20% year over year and now 30% are up 30% for the first half of the year when compared to 25.

    談到業務表現,我們的全國商業服務(National Commercial Services)業務在核心領域持續展現強勁成長:國內商業保費年增 20%,而上半年相較 2025 年成長 30%。

  • Energy continues to be our largest asset class, followed by strength in some of our larger asset classes such as data centers, multi-family, and industrial properties.

    能源仍是我們最大的資產類別,其次是在部分較大型資產類別上的強勢表現,例如資料中心、多戶住宅與工業不動產。

  • We are proud of how we have built this business over the last 2 to 3 years, and our laser focused on the continued expansion in this space.

    我們為過去 2 到 3 年打造這項業務的成果感到自豪,並將持續以高度聚焦的方式擴張此領域。

  • The acquisition of industry leading talent is a critical activity for us to continue to grow our footprint, and we continue to seek opportunities where we made some investments in hiring additional teams to address some regional and sector opportunities, spending an additional $3 million to $4 million this quarter to do so, we believe in these personnel investments and anticipate we feel the full impact of these hires over the next 2 to 3 quarters as they settle into their seat and begin to do our business.

    延攬業界領先人才是我們持續擴大版圖的關鍵工作。我們也持續尋找機會,透過增聘團隊來掌握部分區域與產業別的機會;本季為此額外投入 300 萬至 400 萬美元。我們看好這些人員投資,並預期在未來 2 到 3 個季度,隨著新進人員就位並開始推動業務,將感受到其完整效益。

  • Our direct operations business unit grew Consolidated residential refinance and Main Street commercial revenues by 7% in the second quarter compared to the same time frame last year.

    我們的直營營運(Direct Operations)事業單位在第二季的合併住宅再融資與 Main Street 商業營收,較去年同期成長 7%。

  • Residential transactions grew 3% in the core, slightly better than the growth of existing home sales for the quarter, Main Street commercial delivered solid growth with revenue up more than 20% if you due to both transaction volume and size, we remain focused on strengthening our position and attractive MSAs through organic and inorganic efforts, and have we come to see more opportunities become available in our target geographies.

    核心住宅交易量成長 3%,略優於本季既有住宅銷售的成長;Main Street 商業表現穩健,營收成長超過 20%,主要受交易量與交易規模帶動。我們仍專注於透過有機與非有機方式,強化在具吸引力的都會統計區(MSA)的布局,且我們也看到在目標地理區域出現更多可把握的機會。

  • In the second quarter we invested approximately 2 million in incremental organic op opportunities to acquire individuals and teams.

    第二季我們約投入 200 萬美元,用於增量的有機成長機會,以延攬個人與團隊。

  • In support of our growth strategy and direct operations.

    以支持我們在直營營運方面的成長策略。

  • Our centralized title operations, which include centralized refinance in our bulk business confronted some tough comparables when compared to the second quarter last year, as our bulk businesses particularly can be very bumpy, these headws impacted our overall non-commercial directives and drove results down about 1% when compared to the second quarter of 25.

    我們的集中化產權營運(Centralized Title Operations),包含集中化再融資與批量(bulk)業務,與去年第二季相比面臨較高的比較基期;由於批量業務本身波動較大,這些逆風影響了我們整體非商業直營業務,導致相較 2025 年第二季下滑約 1%。

  • Our agency services business delivered 25% revenue growth in the second quarter in a row.

    我們的代理服務(Agency Services)業務在第二季實現 25% 的營收成長,且已連續第二季達成。

  • Which we are especially pleased with giving our agents confront the same headwinds as our direct operations officers.

    我們對此尤其感到滿意,因為我們的代理商面臨與直營營運同樣的逆風。

  • We are focused on growing this business, you're winning the business with new agents and expanding wallet share of existing agents with the emphasis on 15 target states.

    我們專注於擴大此業務:一方面透過新增代理商贏得業務,另一方面提升既有代理商的錢包占比,並以 15 個目標州為重點。

  • We are also committed to expanding our commercial footprint agency, and we continue to make good progress on both these priorities with residential premiums up 30% and commercial debt premiums up 16% in the second quarter when compared to the same time frame last year.

    我們也致力於擴大代理通路的商業版圖,並在這兩項優先事項上持續取得良好進展;第二季住宅保費較去年同期成長 30%,商業債務保費成長 16%。

  • In the second quarter, we were also proactive in making additional investments in talent to take advantage of some disruptions we saw in a handful of our target market, we invested another $2 million to $3 million in additional customer facing talent which should enable us to build significant share of these target states.

    在第二季,我們也主動加碼投資人才,以把握我們在部分目標市場看到的若干擾動;我們另投入約200萬至300萬美元於更多面向客戶的人才,這應可使我們在這些目標州建立可觀的市占。

  • Our real estate solutions business grew revenues by 75% and adjusted pretext margins by 24% in the second quarter compared to last year, ending the quarter with a 13.6% margin.

    我們的不動產解決方案業務在第二季相較去年,營收成長75%,調整後稅前利潤率提升24%,季末利潤率為13.6%。

  • The year over year comparables in this segment benefit from their acquisition of MCS, our property preservation business, as well as our acquisition of our national appraisal network when removing them those contributions to our revenue, our legacy res business grew roughly 18%, we remain focused on continuing to expand our coverage and servicing of the TOP30%, 3,300 lenders.

    本分部的年對年比較受惠於其收購MCS(我們的物業維護業務),以及我們收購全國估價網路;若剔除這些對營收的貢獻,我們的既有不動產解決方案(legacy RES)業務約成長18%。我們仍專注於持續擴大對TOP30%、3,300家放款機構的覆蓋與服務。

  • And our suite of products and services is in good position and is giving us even better ability to cross sell and win business.

    而我們的產品與服務組合處於良好位置,並讓我們具備更強的交叉銷售能力以贏得業務。

  • Moving to our international operations, we are focused on profitly growing across our footprint of Canada, Australia, and UK.

    談到我們的國際營運,我們聚焦於在加拿大、澳洲與英國的版圖上實現獲利性成長。

  • And the second quarter we grew at non-commercial revenue by 4% and commercial revenue by 7.

    第二季,我們的非商用營收成長4%,商用營收成長7%。

  • In challenged housing markets, we believe we can build on our strong position in these markets and continually continue to grow profitable share.

    在具挑戰的房市中,我們相信可憑藉在這些市場的強勢地位持續擴大,並不斷提升具獲利性的市占。

  • On the topic of inorganic growth initiatives in 26, we have been, we have seen a meaningful pickup in attractive opportunities in our acquisition pipeline in late 2025, we conducted a capital raise to put ourselves in a position in 26 to strengthen our competitive position and increase our earnings power.

    關於2026年的非有機成長計畫,我們在2025年末看到併購管線中具吸引力的機會明顯增加;我們進行了資本募集,使我們在2026年能強化競爭地位並提升獲利能力。

  • The vast majority of that capital has yet to be deployed, however, we are currently working on transactions that we anticipate will close in the next 60 to 120 days and we'll be funded by the proceeds from our excess capital.

    上述資本絕大部分尚未投入使用;不過,我們目前正推進一些交易,預期將在未來60至120天內完成,並將以我們超額資本的資金來支應。

  • Our significant growth in real estate solutions and commercial activity throughout the business life has resulted in an increase in our operating expense ratios, the real estate solutions.

    我們在不動產解決方案與全公司商用活動方面的顯著成長,已使我們的營運費用率上升,尤其是不動產解決方案相關。

  • Our other operating expenses are the largest expense category and our higher percentage of of our mix do mix of outside services, cost of data, and our appraisal and property preservation contract workforce.

    我們的其他營運費用是最大費用類別,且由於我們的組合中外包服務、資料成本,以及估價與物業維護的合約人力占比較高,因而費用較高。

  • Similarly, the com commercial transactions often come with higher operating expenses given the cost of data and search fees.

    同樣地,商用交易通常伴隨較高的營運費用,主要因資料成本與查詢費用所致。

  • Throughout our journey, we have prioritized thoughtful investment in ourselves and our talent to positions through a wealth in the marketplace.

    一路走來,我們始終優先考量對公司自身與人才的審慎投資,以在市場中建立優勢地位。

  • We have some of the best leaders and employees in the industry, and we continue to add to our roster with a relentless focus on adding personnel that will help us grow the company for the future.

    我們擁有業界最優秀的一些領導者與員工,並持續擴充團隊,堅持不懈地聚焦於招募能協助公司面向未來成長的人才。

  • We believe strongly in these investments are necessary to propel the company to the next phase, and our continuous see real momentum for ourselves in the marketplace.

    我們堅信這些投資是推動公司進入下一階段所必需的,且我們在市場上持續看到自身的真實動能。

  • We've increased our staff, staffing in all our segments in line and then with our organic growth initiatives and have grown our head count via acquisition.

    我們依循各分部的有機成長計畫增加人力配置,並透過併購擴大員工人數。

  • Which has resulted in an increase of our employee costs of about 17% year-to-date.

    因此,截至目前我們的員工成本年初至今約增加17%。

  • Even with this increased investment year-to-date, we have grown revenues by 26% and adjusted pre-tax income by 45%.

    即便年初至今投資增加,我們的營收仍成長26%,調整後稅前收入成長45%。

  • We continue to anticipate earnings growth and excess of revenue growth for the full year that could see the ratio of revenue ss come in in the second half without the benefit of improved market conditions given our increased investment in Title II.

    我們仍預期全年獲利成長將高於營收成長;在下半年,即使沒有市場狀況改善的助益,隨著我們加大對Title II的投資,營收費用比率也可能在下半年回落。

  • We continue to prioritize shaping the company for 12% adjusted margins when we get back to a 5 million unit existing homes and are focused on improving margins as we grow in a challenged market.

    我們持續以在既有成屋年成交量回到500萬戶時達成12%的調整後利潤率為目標來塑造公司,並專注於在具挑戰的市場中隨著成長而改善利潤率。

  • Thank you for your time, attention, and interest in Stuart.

    感謝各位撥冗、關注並對Stuart的興趣。

  • As an enterprise, we are dedicated to being the premier title service company, we are focused on strengthening the company for lasting success in targeted multi-pronged growth plans by business to further fortify our position.

    作為一家企業,我們致力成為首屈一指的產權服務公司;我們專注於透過按業務別、具針對性且多管齊下的成長計畫,強化公司以實現長期成功,進一步鞏固我們的地位。

  • To our customers and agent partners, thank you for your trust and dedicated dedication to Stuart, we are committed to serving you with excellence and to our steward team.

    致我們的客戶與代理合作夥伴,感謝您對Stuart的信任與長期支持;我們承諾以卓越服務回饋各位,也感謝我們的Stuart團隊。

  • Thank you for your dedication and focus on growing this company together, we've made great progress and I look forward to seeing what we can do together.

    感謝各位的投入與專注,與我們一同推動公司成長;我們已取得很大進展,也期待看看我們能一起完成什麼。

  • David, I'll now turn it over to you to provide an update on our results.

    David,接下來我把時間交給你,請你更新我們的業績表現。

  • Good morning everyone and thank you, Fred.

    各位早安,也謝謝你,Fred。

  • Thank you to our employees and customers for their continued support partnership as we navigate a residential real estate market that remains challenging.

    感謝我們的員工與客戶在我們應對仍具挑戰的住宅不動產市場之際,持續給予支持與合作夥伴關係。

  • Yesterday reported solid second quarter results with both revenue and profitability growth.

    我們昨日公布了穩健的第二季成果,營收與獲利能力皆成長。

  • Second quarter total revenues increased $177 million or 25% on that income improved $5 million or 17%, diluted EPS was 1 dollar21 compared to the base income was $43 million, or diluted earnings per share of $1.39 compared to 38 and $1.34.

    第二季總營收增加1.77億美元(+25%),淨利增加500萬美元(+17%);稀釋後每股盈餘為1.21美元。基礎淨利為4,300萬美元;稀釋後每股盈餘為1.39美元,相較去年為3,800萬美元與1.34美元。

  • Appendix A of our press release shows adjustments to our consolidated and segment results primarily related to net realized and unrealized gains required intangible amortization and acquisition integration expenses.

    我們新聞稿的附錄A列示對合併及分部業績的調整,主要與已實現及未實現淨收益、必要的無形資產攤銷,以及併購整合費用相關。

  • In our title segment, operating revenues increased $91 million or 15% driven by strong performance from our agency and domestic commercial business title operating expenses increased 17% primarily due to to expenses related to revenue growth and higher employee costs as noted, resulting from our continued investment in talent.

    在我們的產權(Title)分部,營運收入增加9,100萬美元(+15%),主要受代理業務與國內商用業務的強勁表現帶動。產權營運費用增加17%,主要因與營收成長相關的費用,以及如前所述因持續投資人才而增加的員工成本所致。

  • As a result, title pre-tax income was comparable to last year.

    因此,產權分部稅前收入與去年大致相當。

  • On our direct title business, direct title revenues increased $15 million or 5%, primarily driven by higher commercial and refinancing transactions, while purchase orders were comparable to last year.

    在我們的直營產權業務方面,直營產權收入增加1,500萬美元(+5%),主要由較高的商用與再融資交易帶動,而購屋訂單量與去年相當。

  • Domestic commercial revenues grew $15 million or 20%, driven by higher transaction volume across energy and other asset classes with continued data center benefit, our average domestic commercial fee for file was comparable to last year at $16,900.

    國內商用收入增加1,500萬美元(+20%),主要由能源及其他資產類別的交易量提升所帶動,並持續受惠於資料中心相關業務;我們的國內商用每件案件平均費用與去年相當,為16,900美元。

  • Average domestic residential profile increased to 10% to 3,200, primarily due to a higher weighting of purchase transactions, total international revenues increased 5%, primarily driven by higher transaction volumes.

    國內住宅每件平均收入增加10%至3,200美元,主要因購屋交易占比提高;國際總收入增加5%,主要由交易量提升帶動。

  • On our agency operations, gross agency revenues increased 25% to $377 million from $301 million last year, driven by improved residential and commercial activity across our key agency states.

    在我們的代理業務方面,代理總收入由去年的3.01億美元增加25%至3.77億美元,主要受我們關鍵代理州住宅與商用活動改善所帶動。

  • After agent retention, net agency revenues increased $13 million or 26% compared to last year on tidal losses, the tidal loss ratio improved to 3.2% in the second quarter compared to 3.6%, primarily due to continued overall favorable claims experience.

    扣除代理留存後,代理淨收入較去年增加1,300萬美元(+26%)。在產權損失方面,第二季產權損失率改善至3.2%,去年同期為3.6%,主要因整體理賠經驗持續有利。

  • We expect our title losses for the year to average from the mid 3% to 4% range.

    我們預期今年的產權損失率平均將落在3%中段至4%的區間。

  • On a real estate solution segment, total revenues increased 75% to $8 million or $85 million, primarily driven by a recently acquired MCS business and growth in our credit information and valuation services business.

    在不動產解決方案分部,總收入增加75%至8,500萬美元,主要由近期收購的MCS業務,以及我們的信用資訊與估值服務業務成長所帶動。

  • Real estate Solutions adjusted pre-tax income more than doubled to 20 adjusted margin improved to 14% from 11%.

    不動產解決方案的調整後稅前收入增加逾一倍至2,000萬美元,調整後利潤率由11%提升至14%。

  • On our consolidated expenses, our employee cost ratio improved to 27% compared to 30% primarily due to revenue growth.

    就我們的合併費用而言,我們的員工成本比率由30%改善至27%,主要受惠於營收成長。

  • Our other operating expense ratio increased to 27% from 25%, primarily due to higher costs associated with increased revenues in the real estate solutions segment due to our real estate solution segment growth, we expect our other operating expense ratio.

    我們的其他營運費用比率由25%上升至27%,主要因不動產解決方案部門營收增加而帶動相關成本上升;隨著不動產解決方案部門成長,我們預期其他營運費用比率

  • To be in the 27 to 28% range going forward.

    未來將落在27%至28%的區間。

  • Our financial position remains strong and well positioned to support our customers, employees in the real estate market, total cash and investments were approximately $400 million in excess of statutory premium reserve requirements.

    我們的財務狀況仍然穩健,並具備良好條件以支持我們在不動產市場的客戶與員工;在符合法定保費準備金要求之外,現金及投資總額約有4億美元的超額。

  • Total Stewart stockholders equity at June 30th was approximately $1.66 billion, representing a book value of approximately 55 per share, net cash provided by operations increased to $60 million from $53 million .

    截至6月30日,Stewart股東權益總額約為16.6億美元,代表每股帳面價值約55美元;營運活動提供的淨現金由5,300萬美元增加至6,000萬美元。

  • Primarily driven to high by higher net income.

    主要由較高的淨利所帶動。

  • Again, thank you to our customers and employees for their continued support.

    再次感謝我們的客戶與員工持續的支持。

  • We remain confident our budget serves the real estate markets, I will now turn the call over to the operator for questions.

    我們仍然有信心,我們的預算能服務不動產市場;接下來我將把電話交給接線員進行提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you,(Operator Instructions) Bose George, KBW.

    謝謝,(接線員指示)Bose George,KBW。

  • Your line is open.

    您的線路已開通。

  • Morning.

    早安。

  • Bose George - Analyst

    Bose George - Analyst

  • Hey guys, good morning.

    各位早安。

  • Hey guys, good morning, actually first just on expenses, so you guys noted a few factors, that drove the expenses higher, but just step back and looking at it more broadly, can you just talk about you know the annualized margin outlook, especially if you remain in this higher for longer, with mortgage rates at like 6.5%.

    各位早安。先談費用,你們提到幾個因素推升了費用;但退一步從更宏觀的角度來看,能否談談年化的利潤率展望,特別是在「高利率維持更久」的情境下、房貸利率大約在6.5%時?

  • Thanks though, so I think what if I look at the whole year, right?

    謝謝。所以我想,如果我看整個年度,對吧?

  • I've told you I've given you some guidance in the whole year how to think about the changes.

    我之前已經給過你一些全年指引,說明該如何看待這些變化。

  • If we stay flat, which I think we will, I don't think we'll see any growth in the res market for the rest of the year, I believe that we'll grow earnings revenue probably 20% and earnings 30.

    如果我們維持持平——我認為會如此——我不認為今年剩餘時間住宅市場會有任何成長;我相信我們的營收大概會成長20%,而獲利成長30%。

  • That's kind of the range I think there was some comparisons in the back half of the year we had extraordinary growth in commercial that'll tighten some things I think.

    這大概是我認為的區間。下半年有一些比較基期因素,因為我們去年商用業務有非常突出的成長,這會讓一些數字變得更緊一些。

  • The, so the improvement in margin I see is about 0.5 point, for the company bureau here, might be 410, might be 610, again, it has something to do with.

    所以,我看到的利潤率改善大約是0.5個百分點;就公司本部這邊,可能是410,也可能是610,再次強調,這與

  • The comparisons because we had such outsized growth, in commercial, last year, so, particularly the fourth quarter, but I, if that kind of improved, I'm right on track, it's right where I wanted us to be, we outperformed a little bit in the first half of the year, which was great, and I've, we've reinvested a bunch of that because I want to sustain it, we, if you think about one of the things to think about, a commercial business, at the end of 2003 was too.

    比較基期有關,因為我們去年商用業務成長幅度非常大,尤其是第四季。不過如果能有那樣的改善,我們就完全在軌道上,也正是我希望達到的位置。我們在上半年表現稍微超出一些,這很好;而我也把其中不少再投入,因為我想要維持這個動能。你可以想的一點是,商用業務在2003年底是……

  • Our last 4 quarters is 450.

    我們過去4個季度是450。

  • We've doubled that business, and so it's important for us, that's a people-driven business, and we really need to make sure we're covering sectors and re geographies, the other thing you're seeing is a really significant step up in our agency business, we've had some nice movement, and we've seen a couple of markets, that is disruption, so we've gone for it, we, we're trying to make an investment in because we're facing to really kind of shift shares and you can imagine where they are, where.

    我們把那個業務規模翻倍了,所以這對我們很重要。那是一個以人為本的業務,我們確實需要確保覆蓋各個產業與地理區域。你們另外看到的是,我們的代理(agency)業務有非常顯著的提升,我們有一些不錯的進展,也看到幾個市場出現擾動,所以我們就積極投入。我們正在做投資,因為我們面臨的是要真正去改變市占,你可以想像那些市場在哪裡、在哪裡

  • The best markets, but I still think with all that, as I look at our momentum and even the with the earn out earn in, I'm sorry, I think we'll pick up another 0.5 point, so we're right on, I think, tight will be tighter, I think it'll be kind of the same as last year, but the overall company will be about 0.5 point, and it could be better than that depending on how quickly we ramp up some of these opportunities,

    是最好的市場。不過即便如此,當我看我們的動能,甚至把earn-out、earn-in(抱歉)也考慮進去,我認為我們還能再提升0.5個百分點。所以我覺得會更緊一些,可能跟去年差不多,但整體公司大約會改善0.5個百分點;而且視我們把這些機會拉升的速度,還可能更好。

  • I also, that, by the way, that those numbers do not include what I expect in the next 60 to 90 days, we have a number of these acquisitions we're going through due diligence that we've talked about, and obviously that that would be additive, likely to the equation, but I think we're right on track to what we thought.

    另外,順帶一提,這些數字不包含我預期未來60到90天會發生的事情。我們有幾項先前提過的收購案正在進行盡職調查;很顯然,那些交易很可能會對這個方程式帶來增量貢獻。不過我認為我們正按原先的預期在軌道上。

  • Okay, great, thanks, that's helpful, and actually just on the acquisitions, when we think about the scale, is it, similar to MCS is, a lot of small ones, if there any color that would be great.

    好的,很棒,謝謝,這很有幫助。再問收購,若我們思考規模,是不是類似MCS那樣、很多小型收購?如果能多給一些說明就太好了。

  • Yeah, sure, so when I talked about it, right, the categories we had talked about, there's a little bit of, consolidation I'd like to continue to focus on some of the red services because it's quite very good incremental margin improvement for us to do that, so we did the NAN, which was in that category, and is.

    好的,當然。就像我提到的,我們談過的那些類別裡,有一部分是整併;我希望能持續聚焦在一些red services(紅色服務)上,因為這樣做對我們而言能帶來相當不錯的增量利潤率改善。所以我們做了NAN,屬於那個類別,而且

  • Likely to be in another one over the next 12 months, not in that, not necessarily an appraisal, but in the red services, there are also on the agency side, as I said, of a lot more activity, and so I would see a couple 3 in that category, and they could be a combination of res or commercial, depending on the transaction, and so they're in those categories that we've talked about.

    在未來12個月內很可能還會再做一筆同類型的交易;不一定是估價(appraisal),但會在red services這一塊。另外在代理端,如我所說,活動量大得多;所以我預期那個類別會有兩到三筆,可能是住宅或商用的組合,取決於交易本身;總之都在我們先前談過的那些類別裡。

  • None of them are huge, so none of them are mecha at the point now where this is about MGF, MSI, local, like local market trying to change the economics, and we're in kind of the business by business, whether it's our data business, our, appraisal business, or our property prez to really just build scale in some of those areas, so they're all active, as I said, I would guess that we'll be able to deploy, the full.

    沒有任何一筆是非常大的,所以目前沒有那種「巨無霸」等級的;這更像是MGF、MSI、在地市場、也就是在地市場試圖改變經濟結構。我們是以各個業務線逐一推進,不論是我們的數據業務、估價業務,或我們的property prez,目的都是在某些領域建立規模。所以這些都在進行中。如我所說,我猜我們將能在今年底前部署完我們募集的全部資金,甚至還會多一些。

  • Amount of what we raised plus some, in the next, probably, by the end of the year is what I would say, okay, great, actually, just a quick one on commercial, was there any slippage of like large deals, I mean your Ffi was flat year over year, but down in decent amount just over the last couple of quarters.

    好的,很棒。再快速問一個關於商用:是否有大型案子延後?我的意思是,你們的Ffi年對年持平,但相較過去幾季下降幅度不小。

  • Yeah, it was very bumpy, and we had some comparison, we had a couple really big ones, last year, so I don't, but the mix of us and where we are when I look at the data center mix or I look at the energy mix, it's similar, right?

    是的,波動很大,而且有比較基期因素;我們去年有幾筆非常大的案子,所以我不……不過就我們的組合以及我們目前的位置來看,當我看資料中心的組合或能源的組合,其實是相似的,對吧?

  • But we've had a couple in, same in the fourth quarter of last year, we had just a tremendous big one in Mexico, so it's going to be a little bit bumpy, I don't see any momentum shift, that's good, what I would tell you though.

    但我們確實有幾筆——去年第四季也是一樣——我們在墨西哥有一筆非常巨大的案子,所以會有點顛簸。我沒有看到任何動能轉弱,這是好的。不過我會告訴你的是,

  • So it's just the comparisons are tough, I mean, we grew 30% for 6 months, we grew 46 or 7% last year at the same time, I mean we're building on big numbers, if you recall, we grew a lot faster than the rest of the industry early, and so, the comparison, some of these, last year was a big year, and as I said, frankly, it started at the end of 23, we've been cranking, so I'm very comfortable with the 30 sitting on top of the 40.

    主要就是比較基期很硬。我們6個月成長30%,而去年同期成長46%或47%;我們是在很大的數字上再往上疊加。你如果記得,我們在早期的成長速度比產業其他公司快很多,所以比較起來會更困難。去年是大年,而且如我所說,坦白講從2023年底就開始了,我們一直在加速推進,所以我對「30%疊在40%之上」這件事非常有信心。

  • 7.

    7.

  • But I do would also say that's a place I've said time and time again, we're under clubbed in geographies, we're underlogged in sec in sectors, I've gotta keep, we gotta keep hiring talent and commercial, if we want to, keep closing the GAAP, we've gone from about, I can't, I haven't done that, obviously the numbers this quarter, but we've gone about 9 until we were about 13.5, 14% share.

    但我也確實會說,我一再提到的一點是:我們在地理覆蓋上仍然不足,在產業別的覆蓋上也不夠深入。我必須持續、我們也必須持續招募人才與商務人員;如果我們想要持續縮小 GAAP 的差距。我們大概從……我不能、我這季當然還沒去算那些數字,但我們大概從 9% 提升到約 13.5%、14% 的市佔。

  • And so that's a pretty big jump, I'd like to believe if we keep our focus and keep investing, that business over the next couple of years we could get it to 20, now you'll be, again, it's bumpy, so our competitors have great cores too, and they're very good competitors, so I look at that business is really about coverage and resource and our team, because the other thing I want to do is I don't want to take on so much so fast that we can't digest it, so it's kind of balancing that, but I think our.

    所以這是相當大的跳升。我相信如果我們保持專注並持續投資,未來幾年那個業務我們可以把它做到 20%。當然你也會看到——再說一次——它會有波動,因為我們的競爭對手也有很強的核心能力,而且他們是非常優秀的競爭者。所以我看那個業務,關鍵真的在於覆蓋、資源以及我們的團隊;另外一件我想做的是,我不想一下子承接太多、太快,以至於我們消化不了,所以這是一種平衡,但我認為我們的……

  • Team has done an excellent job doing that, and I continue to see a good strong pipeline and potential.

    團隊在這方面做得非常出色,我也持續看到很強勁的管線與潛力。

  • Okay, great, thanks for the color.

    好的,很棒,謝謝你的補充說明。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll move next to Oscar Nieves with Steven Zinc.

    接下來我們請 Oscar Nieves 與 Steven Zinc。

  • Hey, Oscar.

    嗨,Oscar。

  • Hey, Fred, hi, good morning.

    嗨,Fred,早安。

  • Oscar Nieves - Equity Analyst

    Oscar Nieves - Equity Analyst

  • My first one is, on the title segment.

    我第一個問題是關於產權(Title)部門。

  • When you look at the revenue trends in Title Agency Continues to outgrow direct, so is that still consistent with the share gain story in your target emSAs, or are you starting to see, competitive, or mixedtra show up in the amounts retained by agents, because if we look at that ratio this quarter, it came in at,

    當你看產權業務的營收趨勢時,Title Agency 持續比直營(direct)成長更快,所以這仍然與你們在目標 MSA 的市佔提升敘事一致嗎?還是你開始看到競爭或組合變化,反映在代理人留存金額上?因為如果我們看這季那個比率,它是……

  • Yeah.

    對。

  • A little bit higher in the porters, so just wanted to see, so it's a good, good observation, let's go the way I'm thinking about it in our direct operations, we've now been what, 4 years in a flat market on reds, which is a vast majority of our.

    在某些指標上稍微高了一點,所以想確認一下。這是個很好的觀察。我用我對直營營運的看法來回答:我們在住宅(res)這塊——也就是我們直營營運的絕大部分——已經在一個持平的市場裡待了大概 4 年。

  • Of what's in our direct operation, we're trying to expand the

    我們正嘗試擴大……

  • The what I call Main Street commercials, they've done a pretty good job, they've run at 15%, but I would argue our direct operations is probably under penetrated in commercial still, so if you look at, I think we grew 3.5.

    我所謂的「Main Street」商業案源,他們做得相當不錯,成長率大概在 15%;但我會說,我們的直營在商業(commercial)端的滲透率可能仍偏低。所以如果你看,我想我們在住宅端成長了 3.5……

  • Something like that, in res, so we're holding our own, and our our growth indirect has mostly been on the commercial side that gets us to that 7.

    大概是那樣,所以我們算是守住了,而我們的代理(indirect)成長主要來自商業端,這也把我們帶到那個 7。

  • And so.

    所以……

  • You haven't gear shifted, as much on the red side, on direct stops, now two things are changing.

    你們在直營的住宅端並沒有那麼明顯地「換檔加速」。不過現在有兩件事正在改變。

  • One, we're getting good commercial traction, but the thing I mentioned in my call, we're starting to see disruption, we're starting to hire and take teams organically, and so we spent another a couple million dollars this quarter at that, and I can see the shift, the other thing that's happening in direct is the organic opportunities that I keep talking about it by NSA are are emerging, we just announced one, a great brand in, Texas, on,

    第一,我們在商業端取得了不錯的動能;第二,我在電話會議裡提到的,我們開始看到市場出現擾動,我們開始以有機方式招募並吸收團隊,所以這一季我們又在這方面多花了幾百萬美元,我看得到那個轉變。直營端另外正在發生的是,我一直在談的、按 MSA 來看的有機機會正在浮現。我們剛宣布了一個——在德州——一個很棒的品牌,位於……

  • For Fort Worth side of of Dallas where we were weak, and I'm really excited about this great brand, great company, not huge, but those kind of opportunities are starting, and as I said, in our pipeline, we have another 3 or 4 of those, so we'll start seeing kind of that MSA grade growth shift a little bit, with rest, now, I don't see the market helping us, right?

    達拉斯的 Fort Worth 那一側,我們原本比較弱,而我對這個很棒的品牌、很棒的公司感到非常興奮;規模不算巨大,但這類機會正在出現。正如我說的,在我們的管線裡還有另外 3 到 4 個類似案子,所以我們會開始看到按 MSA 分級的成長結構有些轉移,住宅也會帶動一些。只是我不認為市場會幫我們,對吧?

  • Because like I was hoping this year that I'd see 689, got a little bit of red.

    因為我原本希望今年能看到 6、8、9(的成長),結果住宅只出現一點點成長。

  • Growth which would really shift for us, that's also our big margin lever because we have excess capacity in our direct operation.

    那會對我們帶來很大的轉變;那也是我們最大的利潤率槓桿,因為我們直營營運目前有多餘產能。

  • But to your point, compared to agency, the team has done an amazing job, right, in a 1 or 2 or 3% growth rate as we grew 30%.

    但回到你的問題,跟代理相比,團隊做得非常驚人,對吧?在市場只有 1% 到 2% 或 3% 成長率的情況下,我們卻成長了 30%。

  • I mean, what we're seeing is shifting share at a lot of significant agents and some really attractive ones, can do I think that's going to come down a little bit?

    我的意思是,我們看到的是在許多重要代理人以及一些非常有吸引力的代理人那裡,市佔正在轉移。你問我這會不會稍微降溫?

  • Sure, I think we're probably in the, that business will probably grow in the 10s, the other thing they've done a really good job is on the commercial side in agency, but it is, we are shifting nicely on the agency side, I don't see the dynamic within the agent.

    會的,我認為那塊業務可能會落在 10% 多的成長區間。他們另外做得很好的,是代理端的商業業務;但確實,我們在代理端的市佔轉移很順利。我不覺得代理人內部的動態有什麼改變,我只是覺得我們是在提升我們的市佔;但我也會再說一次,非有機(inorganic)活動……

  • Changing anything, I just think we're kinda shifting our share, but I would tell you again, inorganic activity.

    我會告訴你,非有機活動。

  • There's a lot more discussions right now, even though the market's flat, I think it's because commercials are a little better, people's outlook is a little bit better, and so they've made a little bit more money and so we can come to an agreement on a price that's fair for both.

    即使市場持平,目前的討論其實多了很多。我認為是因為商業端稍微好一些、大家的展望也好一些,所以他們賺得多一點,我們也就能在一個對雙方都公平的價格上達成共識。

  • But that is actually starting, but it's a great observation because it's for me the direct operation swings, if commercials outsized, it changes the dynamics, if we could get a little bit more res growth in, direct it would change the dynamics, so there are the, those are the things that are moving it around, and, but I'm really pleased with the progress everywhere, I just, I think that direct is.

    但這確實正在開始發生。不過這是個很棒的觀察,因為對我來說,直營端的擺動在於:如果商業端占比更大,動態就會改變;如果我們能在直營端看到更多住宅成長,動態也會改變。所以這些就是讓它上下變動的因素。但我對各方面的進展都非常滿意;只是我認為直營端……

  • Urging because we're seeing this activity and we've done a, that team's done an amazingly good job on expense management, data management, and so we've been able to hold or increase our margins over the last 3 years, because of the hard work they've done, even though there's been no growth, so, I think we're pretty good in both.

    正在加速,因為我們看到這些活動,而且我們做了——那個團隊在費用管理、資料管理上做得極其出色,所以即使沒有成長,過去 3 年我們仍能維持或提高利潤率,都是因為他們的辛勤努力。所以我覺得兩邊都相當不錯。

  • That, that's very helpful.

    這非常有幫助。

  • I have a couple, I want to double click on a couple of the things that you just mentioned.

    我還有幾個問題,我想針對你剛提到的幾點再深入追問一下。

  • One is on commercial activity, which obviously has remained very strong, and one of your peers that reported yesterday mentioned on their press release that they are on track for a record year in commercial.

    其中一個是商業活動,顯然仍然非常強勁;而你們一位同業昨天公布財報時在新聞稿提到,他們今年的商業業務有望創下紀錄。

  • So on that, can you give us your outlook for commercial revenue for the rest of the year, and he got 27, and also if you can, share how, the underlying drivers,

    所以在這方面,你能否給我們你們今年剩餘時間的商業營收展望?以及——他提到 27——另外如果可以的話,也請分享一下背後的驅動因素,

  • What are you seeing right now in terms of FA 5 versus border count.

    你們目前看到的情況是:就 FA 5 相較於保單數(policy count)而言,現在的趨勢如何?

  • Yeah, I, they're both, they're solid, so again, my whole thing is just the comparisons, for me because we had a bunch of pores, as in the last 2 years we grew 50%, 47, 50%.

    對,我覺得兩者都很穩健。再說一次,對我而言主要是比較基期,因為過去兩年我們有一堆……也就是我們成長了 50%、47%、50%。

  • And so that's a hard comparison, but we had a that pipeline, we grew 30% the 1st 6 months this year, I don't, I believe we continue to grow, I'm a little bit suspicious about the fourth quarter because we had such a big year in the fourth quarter last year, but we, to your point, we've had 2 record years in a row, right, like, and with this last 4 quarters it doubled the business, so we see the same thing, the market is attractive, we hit our stride.

    所以那是很難的比較。不過我們有那樣的管線;今年上半年我們成長了 30%。我相信我們會持續成長;我對第四季稍微有點保留,因為去年第四季非常強勁。但如你所說,我們已經連續兩年創下紀錄,對吧?而且以最近 4 個季度來看,業務規模翻倍,所以我們看到同樣的情況:市場很有吸引力,我們也進入了節奏。

  • And our skill set got better at the right time, we were fortunate, they call us lucky, so we've been seeing this for the last couple of years, but we don't see, again, it's bumpy for us because we're smaller, so, if you have all these mega deals, it affects us a little bit, but I don't, I like the breadth of our pipeline, I like what's happening, I would say kind of what we did in the, could I see the percent growth be a little less because of the comparisons, yeah, but it's not.

    而且我們的技能組合在對的時間變得更強,我們很幸運,他們說我們運氣好,所以過去幾年我們一直看到這種情況,但我們不認為——再說一次——對我們來說會比較顛簸,因為我們規模較小,所以如果有這些超大型交易,會對我們有一點影響;但我喜歡我們管線的廣度,我喜歡正在發生的事情。我會說,就像我們在……我能不能看到因為比較基期的關係,成長百分比稍微低一點?可以,但也就那樣。

  • Because the market's not good, it's not because the pipeline, and you can see our order count and our and our numbers, now the one unknown alway always with commercial, you just have to keep in mind is if there's a disruption in the marketplace and, the, financing cost change, sometimes they'll kick it to the next quarter or they'll, accelerate it or something, so it tends to be, these tend to be longer deals, they tend to be a little bit fickle, about.

    不是因為市場不好,也不是因為管線;你也可以看到我們的訂單筆數和我們的、我們的數字。現在商業業務唯一永遠的不確定因素,你必須記住的是:如果市場出現擾動、融資成本改變,有時他們會把案子推到下一季,或是加速之類的,所以它往往會——這些通常是較長的交易,時間點和成交上也比較反覆。

  • Kind of, timing and closing, but I'm, I, I'd be surprised if this year's not.

    就……在時點與結案上,但我——我會很驚訝如果今年不是。

  • The best year ever had after last year being the best year we've ever had, and so we just gotta keep after it, but I do think the little bit of difference with us and some of the two big competitors are very big.

    在去年已經是我們史上最好的一年之後,今年還不是史上最好的一年;所以我們只要持續努力。但我確實認為,我們和另外兩家大型競爭對手之間的一點差異在於他們非常大。

  • And for me, I'm building capacity as fast as I can build capacity, so there's a little bit of a gate for us because I don't want to be stupid, I want to do it well, I want it to be considered excellent, and so there is this staffing that we gotta continue to do, because we are, we're bigger, we're a lot bigger than we were but I feel really good about the market, there's nothing about the market that I'm worried about the injury, the early estimates in the market.

    對我來說,我正以我能做到的最快速度擴充產能,所以對我們而言會有一點「閘門」,因為我不想做蠢事,我想把它做好,我希望它被視為卓越。因此我們必須持續補人,因為我們——我們比以前大很多了。但我對市場感覺非常好,市場沒有任何讓我擔心的地方,市場上的早期估計也是如此。

  • We're about a 12% growth in commercial that you see these forecast, obviously the first half is way out, is much bigger than that, and I don't see anything changing.

    我們看到的商業業務成長大約是 12%,你會看到這些預測;顯然上半年遠高於這個數字,而我看不出有任何改變。

  • The trends, right, I just like, I think they're all kinda.

    趨勢嘛,對,我就是覺得它們都算是……

  • Similar, so we'll see, but it's not in the kind of report to say I'm worried about it.

    差不多,所以我們再看看,但這不是那種需要報告說我很擔心的事。

  • And Oscar, that's 17,000 FR files probably more indicative, as said, we had some really big deals in prior, but the 17 is probably more indicative.

    還有 Oscar,那 17,000 份 FR 檔案可能更具代表性;如前所述,我們在之前有一些非常大的交易,但 17,000 可能更具代表性。

  • Right, yeah, alright, that was going to be my next one, cause yeah, it was a significant step down versus the prior 2 quarters.

    對,沒錯,好——那本來就是我下一個問題,因為相較前兩季確實明顯下滑。

  • And, I do have one last one is, you recently announced the Vatican acquisition and just wondered if you could share some details on, the size of the deal and yeah.

    另外我最後一個問題是:你們最近宣布了 Vatican 的收購案,想請問你能否分享一些細節,例如交易規模之類的,對。

  • Yeah, it's a small one on, it's what I call a microdeal a little bit because it's basically, it's a small deal, it's not a big deal, the reason we announced it nationally, is because the oldest known agents in Texas, it has an amazing commercial position, and so we felt it was important to, recognize the family and make the announcement, nationally, but it is what I would call, it's a small, it, it's again, it's a, it fills in Dallas.

    可以,這是一筆小案子,我把它稱作微型交易,因為基本上它是小交易,不是大交易。我們之所以在全國層級宣布,是因為它是德州已知最老的代理之一,擁有很棒的商業市場地位,所以我們覺得有必要肯定這個家族並在全國發布公告;但我會說它是一筆小案子——再說一次——它是在達拉斯的補強。

  • Is a way to, for us to think about that and the ones we're doing and following are bigger, a little bit bigger, so a little bit different nature, but we're very, I'm really pleased with it because Fort Worth has been a real, we've had a, we have a really good position in Dallas, but it's been a hole, and, this is about as great as it could be as filling out that city for us.

    這是我們思考這件事的方式;而我們正在做、以及接下來要做的案子會更大一些,所以性質有點不同。但我們非常——我對此很滿意,因為沃斯堡一直是個真正的……我們在達拉斯的地位很好,但那裡一直有個缺口,而這次對我們來說幾乎是能做到的最佳方式來補齊那座城市。

  • And also, if you think about the industry data, right, most agents are under 10 million in revenue, and so when you have.

    另外,如果你看產業數據,對吧,多數代理的營收都低於 1,000 萬美元,所以當你有……

  • Have a single market agent, right?

    有一個單一市場的代理,對吧?

  • That's probably the area that they're in.

    那大概就是他們所在的區間。

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Yeah, it's broken.

    對,這被拆開了。

  • I'll get back in the queue because I have an infinite list of questions that I'm going to give other people a chance to speak to you, thank you.

    我先回到隊列,因為我有一長串問題;我會讓其他人也有機會跟你們對話,謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Michael Rendos, Stone x.

    (接線員指示) Michael Rendos,Stone x。

  • Michael.

    Michael。

  • Michael Rendos - Analyst

    Michael Rendos - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning, everybody.

    嗨,各位早安。

  • Good morning.

    早安。

  • Just drilling further into the commercial, can you talk about your win rate and the direction of the wind rate.

    再更深入談商業業務,你能談談你們的得標率,以及得標率的走向嗎?

  • Over the past couple of quarters, and how competitive is the market on pricing?

    在過去幾個季度,以及市場在定價上的競爭程度如何?

  • And you know which direction is that going?

    你知道,這個方向是往哪裡走?

  • Yeah, again, so we don't.

    對,再說一次,我們不——

  • Typically you have a lead player in those deals, and you achieve those, there's not really a competitive, on a particular deal, they typically get referred, and as you get better at certain categories, you tend to lead more, and then what ends up happening in some of the big deals is you share the deals and the scale and the size and the need for the surplus.

    通常在那些交易裡會有一個主導方,你拿下那些案子;在單一交易上其實不太存在競爭,它們通常是被轉介過來的。而當你在某些類別做得更好時,你就更常成為主導方;接著在一些大案子裡,因為規模、大小以及需要超額(surplus)的關係,你們會共同分攤這些交易。

  • As far as the price sensitivity, there really isn't a lot of price sensitivity, there is some, segments of the market where there'd be joint venture businesses, between the generators of the business and the underwriter, right, so there's some kind of,

    至於價格敏感度,其實沒有太多價格敏感度,確實有一些;市場上有些區隔會出現合資型態的業務,在業務來源方與承保人之間,對吧,所以會有某種……

  • Sharing, if you will, of those deals that occur in pockets in different cities, particularly say in a New York City or is one place you might have that, but there isn't, we don't see, that business being overly competitive, it has a lot to do with.

    如果你願意這麼說的話,會有分潤;這種交易會在不同城市的某些區域出現,特別像紐約市就是你可能會看到的地方之一。但我們不覺得那塊業務競爭過度,它很大程度取決於……

  • Kind of your skill set, particularly on some of the rural land stuff and like we tend to be very good in places like energy because it's a lot of rural stuff and it's in Mexico or Indian reservations, whatever, so they tend to skew towards the people with skill, so I think, and it is for all of us, I would guess, I don't know, but it's a higher margin business for

    你的技能組合,特別是在一些鄉村土地相關的案子;像我們在能源這類領域往往很強,因為很多是鄉村地帶,可能在墨西哥或印第安保留地之類,所以它們往往會偏向有技能的人。我想——而且對我們所有人都是——我猜啦,我不確定,但這是一個較高毛利的業務,對

  • Everybody, for us it used to be subscale, so it wasn't, but we're now in the in the same category with all the others, because the other thing that comes with commercial, is float, right?

    每個人都是。對我們來說以前規模不足,所以不是;但現在我們已經跟其他人處在同一個級別。因為商業業務還帶來另一件事:浮存金(float),對吧?

  • So you have escrow and the float and the investment income as well, so again, it, that tends to be a little bit on the higher margin business, it tends to be a very stable market, I would tell you right now, the issue is we, we're skewing to larger account.

    所以你會有託管(escrow)、浮存金以及投資收益;因此再說一次,它往往是毛利較高的業務,也往往是一個非常穩定的市場。我現在會告訴你,問題在於我們——我們的組合正偏向更大的客戶。

  • Just because of the nature of what's happening with data centers, energy development, etc.

    主要是因為資料中心、能源開發等正在發生的事情的性質。

  • And in those you're seeing more shared accounts, right?

    而在那些案子裡,你會看到更多共同承作的帳戶,對吧?

  • They're just big, so you have to have more shared, and so there's a lead and then there's following, and so we're doing a lot more reading than we've had historically because we're bigger, but there's more shared.

    它們就是很大,所以你必須有更多共同分攤;因此會有主辦方,然後會有跟進方。所以我們做了比過去更多的主辦(lead)工作,因為我們規模更大了,但共同承作也更多。

  • Transactions just because of the nature of the business and the size of the business, so again, I, I'd like the business, it's very attractive, and, again, I feel like that for us it's really important to be a bigger presence in commercial, and I mean in all sectors, so more in our direct operations, I want more Main Street commercial, I want more international commercial, I want more agency commercial because again in that business, the 3 of us, it's the whole not believe.

    由於業務性質與業務規模的關係,會有交易,所以再說一次,我喜歡這門業務,它非常有吸引力,而且同樣地,我覺得對我們來說,在商業端擁有更大的存在感真的很重要,我的意思是在所有領域都是如此,也就是在我們的直營營運上,我想要更多主街(Main Street)的商業業務,我想要更多國際商業業務,我想要更多代理通路的商業業務,因為再說一次,在那個業務裡,我們三家就是全部,別人很難相信。

  • Even tighter, obviously all the Publix got some of it too, but it's because our skill sets are unique, and our capital base is strong, that tends to be a business that's, this.

    甚至更集中,當然 Publix 也拿到了一些,但因為我們的技能組合很獨特、資本基礎也很強,所以那往往是一門……就是這樣的生意。

  • The vast majority is going to be the 3 of us.

    絕大多數會是我們三家。

  • And we need to be more present.

    而我們需要更常出現、更有存在感。

  • Across the spectrum.

    涵蓋整個光譜。

  • Gotcha, okay, and.

    了解,好,然後。

  • How long does it take from an order open to an order closed in commercial on average, and how is, what's the direction there, and what does that tell us, if anything?

    在商業端,平均從開單到結案大概要多久?目前趨勢方向如何?如果有的話,這能告訴我們什麼?

  • Not much, it's tough to call, so I tell people like in commercial, you could have a two-year deal, right, so, the complexity, the size, you don't have a lot of 60s or, going to be three quarters or so to a year, but again, we've had some of these complicated ones can take multiple courses, and as I said, the other thing about them is they're very business oriented, so there's a trigger when they're doing the business.

    不太好說,很難判斷。所以我會跟大家說,在商業端你可能會有一筆兩年的案子,對吧?因為複雜度、規模,你不會有很多 60 天的案子;通常可能要三個季度左右到一年。但再說一次,我們也有一些很複雜的案子可能要走好幾輪;而且如我所說,另一個特點是它們非常以商務為導向,所以當客戶在做那筆生意時會有一個觸發點。

  • Case, if something happens with their caring costs and stuff, they might kick it forward, they might kick it back, they might want to close the quarter with it, so they tend to be a little fickle about exactly when they close, but this is why, by the way, our growth, we sometimes have, excess expenses, as were a lot of the search fees and stuff like that, what happens is you do a lot of that work and you don't get compensated to those deals.

    例如,如果他們的持有成本之類發生變化,他們可能把結案往後推、也可能往前拉,或是想在某個季度結掉,所以他們對於到底何時結案往往有點反覆不定。順帶一提,這也是為什麼我們的成長有時會出現超額費用,例如很多搜尋費等;因為你做了大量工作,但在那些案子結掉之前你拿不到報酬。

  • Flows, so there could be a lag in those businesses of a lot of costs and expenses that you have, while you're doing the work before they close, it's just the nature of the business now over time that evens out, but for somebody like us, that's been challenging because we're growing like a when you're growing 40%, the revenue, you're chasing all that work you're doing for the revenue that hasn't landed, so we've had to manage ourselves properly to kinda, to do that with staffing and stuff like that.

    因此在這些業務上,當你在結案前做工作時,會出現成本與費用先發生、收入後到的落差;這就是這門生意的本質。長期來看會攤平,但對像我們這樣的公司會比較具挑戰,因為我們成長很快——當你營收成長 40% 時,你是在追著那些尚未落地的收入去做大量工作,所以我們必須在人力配置等方面把自己管理好,才能應對。

  • But again, it could be all over, that's why I tell people, if you look at the ratios of open to closed.

    但再說一次,時間可能差異很大,所以我才跟大家說,如果你看開單到結案的比率。

  • Right, you can, you look at refi, you can almost call it right, 65, 75 days, reds will take about the same, and so the commercial, it's all over, right?

    對,你看再融資(refi)幾乎可以算得很準,65 到 75 天;REDS 大概也差不多;但商業端就完全不一定,對吧?

  • It, you can have a rush of orders and then closes get kicked back, that particularly was true for us with early days with alternative energy, where it was with the signing of the bill that incented it, we had all these opens, and a lot of those deals took a very long time.

    你可能會遇到開單突然暴增,但結案被往後推;我們早期做替代能源時尤其如此,因為法案簽署後提供了激勵,我們有很多開單,但其中很多案子花了很長時間才完成。

  • And the nature of what the project was changed over time, so that's why it's not an easy straightforward answer, but they tend to be longer, kind of, I would say the year, not a bad way to think about it, but they're all over the map, so.

    而且專案本身的性質也會隨時間改變,所以這不是一個容易、直接的答案。不過它們通常會比較久;大致上用「一年」來思考不算太差,但實際上差異很大。

  • Thank you and

    謝謝,然後

  • It seems like in some states the political environment is becoming more difficult around permitting for data centers.

    看起來在某些州,資料中心的許可(permitting)在政治環境上變得更困難。

  • Can you comment a little bit about how that.

    你能不能稍微談談這件事如何。

  • Is affecting you currently, what the outlook might be for some of the markets where you are.

    目前正在影響你們,以及你們所在的一些市場未來可能的展望?

  • Yeah, it's a good question, and it's something, we all read all about, whether it's Maine or other communities that said not in my community.

    是的,這是個好問題,也是我們都讀到很多的事情,不管是緬因州或其他社區說「不要在我家附近」(not in my community)。

  • It may have some impact, it's hard to know, we're such above average right now that could we be have been, could we be more, robust that we have, but it's hard to really say.

    它可能會有一些影響,但很難知道;我們現在的表現已經遠高於平均,所以我們是否本來可以更強、更有韌性——也許——但很難真的下結論。

  • My prediction is that well if we need it, they'll work it out, it's like cell towers, I still find places to locate them and if we need the demand, it'll happen, matter of fact, in my view, some of the readings about people going on.

    我的預測是,如果我們需要它,他們就會把它解決掉;就像基地台一樣,我仍然看到有地方可以設置。如果需求在那裡,它就會發生。事實上,以我的看法,一些報導提到人們正在推動小型化,可能會起飛,我們也可能會看到這些資料中心呈現不同的樣貌,所以再說一次,它可能會,但我不——因為目前需求非常強勁,且超過我們歷史上見過的任何水準,我們也沒有看到明顯放緩,所以對我來說很難說;我會看著它並說,如果需求在,他們就會想辦法處理。

  • And having small and could take off and we could continue, we could see a different profile of these data centers, so again, I, it could, but I don't, because it's so robust and it's more than we've ever historically seen, and we don't see stuff slowing down per se, it's hard to say, for me, and I, and again, it, it's, I look at it and say if the demand's there, they're going to figure out how to address it.

    而且我們只是準備好再次去回應這個機會。我也會說,如同 David 提到的,平均規模可能有機會下降,你會看到較少的超大型交易(mega deals),規模會分布得更分散一些;但我不敢說這是事實,我只是跟你一樣讀到那些資訊。

  • And so we're just prepared to kind of respond to the opportunity again, it again, I would say, as David said, the average size, I think there's some chance that it reduces and you see less mega me deals, and the size gets a little bit more distributed, but I don't know that for a fact, I just kind of read what you read.

    我們也在努力理解這一切,所以我對我們目前的位置以及我們看到的趨勢感到樂觀。

  • Trying to understand all that, so I feel good about where we are and and the trends that we see.

    了解。

  • Gotcha.

    針對你們未來一年正在看的某些非有機(inorganic)交易,你能不能稍微談談。

  • For some of these inorganic transactions that you're looking at over the next year, can you comment a little bit about.

    這些交易在定價上是以營收倍數還是以獲利倍數來看?

  • How these deals are priced on either revenue or profits.

    當然可以。

  • Sure.

    所以通常產權(title)相關的案子大概在 4 到 6 倍之間——把它壓低一點,對吧?如果是毛利較高的服務型業務,倍數可能一路到 8 倍,甚至 EBITDA 倍數。我們在評估時,通常以我們的 IRR 來看,目標是 15% 以上;而在為這些交易定價時,我們往往不把承保(underwriting)納入。

  • So typically a title thing is somewhere between, 4 to 6, keep it down, right, if you have higher margin service businesses that could get all the way to 8, even da, we, as we think about them, they're all the IRRs for us when we think about it 15% plus, and when we price these deals, we tend not to include the underwriting.

    因此,對我們來說,透過代理(agents)是很有利的,因為我們的競爭對手在代理通路的市占高得多,所以他們如果買下一家代理,其實是在把自家的承保業務買回來。

  • And so it's really advan advantageous to us by agents is our competitors have much higher share in the agency channel, so they, if they buy an agent, they're buying their own underwriting back.

    而我們等於是免費拿到,並且在這個高毛利的業務部分轉移市占,所以再說一次,對我們而言,這類交易的經濟性相對有吸引力。還有一點,我在 12 月談到募資時也說過,我就是看到所有的活動——我的意思是,活動量非常顯著。

  • Actually get that for free and shift share in a high margin part of the business, so again, the economics for us are.

    在 2021 和 2022 年,有很多產業外的人要嘛在做服務業的整併(roll-ups),要嘛以為可以做代理機構的整併,但在沒有續保(renewals)的情況下,這其實不太可行;而那些人很多現在都說,我現在退出了,對吧,就這樣。

  • Relatively attractive for these kind of transactions, and the other thing I I said when we talked about raising the money in December, I just could see all the activity, I mean, the amount of activity is significant.

    你可以看得出來,所以以我的觀點來看,現在正在發生的是。

  • There was a lot of people outside the industry in 21 and 22 that were either doing roll ups on services or they were trying to thought they could do rollups of agencies, which is not a practical thing with no renewals, and a lot of those people have all said, I'm now, right, this.

    我們開始進入一些對話,定價變得更貼近現實,不再是他們可能曾經支付的高價;所以我只是說,你現在可以看到所有這些活動。因此我們必須非常有選擇性、非常審慎;但同樣地,我們有機會強化我們的投資組合並改善利潤率。所以我會說,我們現在看得到這些機會;我也要告訴你,這些案子成交所需時間比我原先想的要稍微長一些,或多了幾天。

  • And you can see it, and so what's happening now in my view is.

    成交比我想的要久,所以我們能不能在3月而不是12月募到資金?大概可以,我可能會有一些壓力(overhang),但現在都已經順利完成了;我們會把這筆資金部署出去,我們會把多餘資本好好地部署運用,而我非常。

  • We started getting to conversations where pricing got realistic, it wasn't the high prices that they may have paid, and so I just, you can see all this activity right now, and so what we have to do is be very selective and very thoughtful, but again, we have opportunities to enhance our portfolio and improve our margins, and so I could, we could see it now, I will tell you that these are taken a little bit, or so days longer to get.

    對我們所做的以及現在如何運用這些資金感到很放心;不過我確實認為,這不會停止。我剛才提到,我只是覺得接下來幾個月可能會出現一些非常有意思的資產;而且你也可以看到大家怎麼思考這件事,其中有些非常有吸引力。所以我們必須做好準備去評估並理解,這對我們是否合理,但。

  • To close than I thought, so could we have raised the money in March instead of December, probably I would have had the overhang, but it's all come through, we're going to deploy the, it, we're going to deploy the excess capital nicely, and I'm very.

    這裡面有非常正面的機會。另一件我想告訴你的是,因為利率長期處於這種偏弱的市場階段,我沒有看到很多來自產業外部的資金進來。

  • Comfortable with kind of what we did and and what we're doing now with it, and so, but I do think this, it, it's not going to stop, I just, I mentioned, I just think there's going to be some really interesting properties, the likely months, and again, I just, you can see how people are thinking about it, and some of these are very attractive, and so we just gotta be prepared to assess and understand whether that makes sense for us, but.

    這是一種情況:如果你在這個行業裡,這就非常好,經濟效益很棒;如果你不在這個行業裡,我不確定它有那麼吸引人,這也是為什麼這很有意思。

  • There's a really positive, opportunity, the other thing I would tell you is that we're in a phase because of this the rate long kind of down market, I do not see a lot of capital from outside of the industry coming in.

    嗨。

  • This is one of those situations, if you're in the business that's really good, the economics are great, if you're not in the business, I'm not sure it's that attractive, and that's why this is an interesting.

    在這個行業裡,我們會看看事情怎麼發展;因為那些只是試水溫的人,我看不出他們會再把更多資金投入,我可能錯了,也許AI在某些領域會改變這點,但我看不到。所以我們應該保持關注、保持審慎,並嘗試把握其中一些機會。

  • Hi.

    我理解你沒有看到任何外部競標者;那你有看到這個群組裡另外三家大型業者的競爭性出價嗎?

  • In the industry and we'll see how these things play out, because just, everybody that put their toe in the water, I can't see any of them putting more money in water, I might be wrong, maybe AI changes that in some areas, but I don't see it, and so, we should just be paying attention and thoughtful and TRY to take advantage of some of these.

    通常如果你看整體。

  • I understand that you're not seeing any outside bidders, are you seeing any competitive bidders from, the other 3 large players in this group.

    這些交易的競爭程度非常低,我就這麼說吧。

  • Typically if you look up at all.

    了解。

  • The competitive nature of these, transactions is very light, let me just say that.

    好,謝謝。

  • Got it.

    我們接著請KBW的Bose George進行追問。

  • All right, thank you.

    您的線路已開通。

  • We'll take a follow-up from Bose George with KBW.

    有,對,簡單追問一下,Fred,你提到集中式產權(title)以及那邊的一些挑戰。

  • Your line is open.

    你能不能再多說一點?

  • There, yeah, just a quick follow-up, Fred, you'd mentioned the the centralized title, and some, challenges there.

    當然。我們有一個集中式單位,裡面有我們的集中式再融資(refi)業務,對我們來說規模不大。

  • Can you just elaborate on that a little bit?

    我們也有一些專業型業務,所以裡面有反向抵押(reverse)業務,還有我們的批量(bulk)業務;這兩個——對,就是我們談到的投資人業務,我們買下的那個批量業務波動很大。

  • Sure, so we have a centralized unit where we have the place where we have our centralized refi, which is a small business for us.

    所以你看上一個第二季,只要看訂單就知道,我們在第二季結了很多單,但這就是那個業務的特性:會突然來一筆大案子;而如果你看我們的未結訂單。

  • We also have our specialty businesses, so we have a reverse business in there, and we have our bulk business, both of those, yeah, the investor business that, we talked about, we bought that bulk business is very bouncy.

    你會看到下一季的未結訂單大幅上升,所以它有點顛簸,這就是那個業務的本質。我認為對我們來說,建立集中式交易處理的能力很重要,

  • And so last second quarter you could see the like you just look at the orders, you, we closed a lot of orders in the second quarter, but it's just, it's the nature of that business will get a big deal still come, and if you look at our open orders.

    考量到潛在的科技影響趨勢,以及更多集中式採購的可能性;所以我們把這塊能力建起來了,但它確實會有波動,對吧?

  • You see that their way up, for the next quarter, so it's kind of bumpy, it's kind of the nature of that business, I think it's important for us to build the skill of centralized transaction,

    所以我們大概看到那個業務下滑了約20%,這當然也對獲利成長造成一些影響,大概在200萬到300萬的區間;但這就是那個業務的特性。我看到它會回來的,對,再次強調,你看訂單就知道,它會回來。

  • Given potential technology affecting trends and having more centralized purchase, and so we built that up and this is, but it is bumpy, right?

    不過請記得,在那個投資人業務方面,有一項行政命令限制機構買盤,另外這也被納入《通往住房法案》(Road to Housing Act)之中,所以市場。

  • So that we probably saw a 20% reduction kinda in that business, which had some, obviously some impact on earnings growth too, in the 2 or 3 million range, but it's the nature of that business, and I see it coming right, again, you can see the order you can come back.

    正在把這些因素都消化後回歸正常。

  • Well, but just remember in that investor business that executive order limiting, institutional buying, and then also that's included in the road to Housing Act, so the markets.

    好的,很棒,這很有幫助,謝謝。

  • Normalizing for all that.

    我目前看不到其他問題,現在我想把電話交回給Fred,請他做任何補充或結語。

  • Okay, great, it's helpful, thanks.

    我要感謝大家的關注;如我先前所說,我對公司目前的動能感到非常振奮,我認為我們把投資放在正確的地方。

  • I show no further questions at this time, I would now like to turn the call back to Fred for any additional or closing remarks.

    我也要感謝我們同仁的努力,因為這段時間非常忙碌,但我對。

  • I want to thank everybody for their interest, as I said earlier, I'm just thrilled about our momentum as a company, I think we're investing in the right places.

    我們的進展感到非常鼓舞;我們會持續非常審慎,確保我們努力讓獲利成長高於我們的——而且我們會在往前推進的過程中持續這麼做。

  • I want to thank our folks for their effort because it's been very busy, but I'm very encouraged about.

    非常感謝,感激不盡。

  • Our progress and we will continue to be very thoughtful of making sure that we're trying to increase our earnings more than our and we will continue to do that as we march forward.

    謝謝。

  • Thank you very much, appreciate it.

    今天的會議到此結束。

  • Thank you.

    感謝各位撥冗參與,您現在可以斷線。

  • This brings us to the end of today's meeting.

  • We appreciate your time and participation, you may now disconnect.

  • Mm