Sensata Technologies Holding PLC (ST) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, and welcome to the Sensata Technologies Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

    早安,歡迎參加森薩塔科技 2019 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。(操作員說明)請注意,正在記錄此事件。

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to Joshua Young, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    現在我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁約書亞楊 (Joshua Young)。請繼續。

  • Joshua S. Young - VP of IR

    Joshua S. Young - VP of IR

  • Thank you, Andrew, and good morning, everybody. I'd like to welcome you to Sensata's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me on today's call are Martha Sullivan, Sensata's CEO; Jeff Cote, Sensata's CEO-elect and current President and Chief Operating Officer; and Paul Vasington, Sensata's Chief Financial Officer.

    謝謝你,安德魯,大家早安。歡迎您參加森薩塔 2019 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。參加今天電話會議的還有森薩塔 (Sensata) 執行長瑪莎·沙利文 (Martha Sullivan); Jeff Cote,森薩塔當選執行長、現任總裁兼營運長;和保羅·瓦辛頓 (Paul Vasington),森薩塔 (Sensata) 首席財務官。

  • In addition to the earnings release we issued earlier today, we will be referencing a slide presentation during today's conference call. The PDF of this presentation can be downloaded from Sensata's Investor Relations website. We will post a replay of today's webcast shortly after the conclusion of today's call.

    除了我們今天早些時候發布的收益報告外,我們還將在今天的電話會議上引用幻燈片演示。本簡報的 PDF 版本可從森薩塔的投資者關係網站下載。我們將在今天的電話會議結束後不久發布今天網路廣播的重播。

  • Before we begin, I'd like to reference Sensata's safe harbor statement on Slide #2. During the course of this conference call, we will make forward-looking statements regarding future events or the financial performance of the company that involve certain risks and uncertainties. The company's actual results may differ materially from projections described in such statements. Factors that might cause these differences include, but are not limited to, those discussed in our Forms 10-Q and 10-K as well as other subsequent SEC filings.

    在開始之前,我想參考幻燈片#2 上的森薩塔安全港聲明。在本次電話會議期間,我們將就涉及某些風險和不確定性的未來事件或公司財務表現做出前瞻性陳述。本公司的實際結果可能與此類聲明中所述的預測有重大差異。可能導致這些差異的因素包括但不限於我們的 10-Q 和 10-K 表格以及其他後續 SEC 文件中討論的因素。

  • On Slide #3, we show Sensata's GAAP results for full year 2019. We encourage you to review our GAAP financial statement in addition to today's presentation.

    在幻燈片 #3 上,我們展示了森薩塔 2019 年全年的 GAAP 業績。除了今天的演示之外,我們鼓勵您查看我們的 GAAP 財務報表。

  • Most of the subsequent information that we will discuss during today's call will be related to non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliation of our GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures are included in our earnings release and in our webcast presentation. The company provides details of its segment operating income on Slides 11 and 12, which are the primary measures management uses to evaluate the business.

    我們將在今天的電話會議中討論的大部分後續資訊將與非公認會計準則財務指標有關。我們的 GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務指標的調整包含在我們的收益發布和網路廣播簡報中。該公司在幻燈片 11 和 12 上提供了其部門營業收入的詳細信息,這是管理層用來評估業務的主要指標。

  • Martha will begin today's call with brief comments on Sensata's growth and transformation over the past 7 years. After which, Jeff will review our overall business summary and provide more details on our outlook for 2020, including a discussion of key progress in megatrends. Paul will then cover our financials for the fourth quarter and full year 2019 and provide guidance for the first quarter and full year 2020. We will then take your questions after our prepared remarks.

    瑪莎將在今天的電話會議開始時簡要評論森薩塔過去 7 年的成長和轉型。之後,Jeff 將回顧我們的整體業務摘要,並提供有關 2020 年展望的更多詳細信息,包括對大趨勢的關鍵進展的討論。隨後,Paul 將介紹我們 2019 年第四季和全年的財務數據,並為 2020 年第一季和全年提供指導。我們將在準備好發言後回答您的問題。

  • Now I'd like to turn the call over to Sensata's CEO, Martha Sullivan.

    現在我想將電話轉給森薩塔的執行長瑪莎·沙利文 (Martha Sullivan)。

  • Martha N. Sullivan - CEO & Executive Director

    Martha N. Sullivan - CEO & Executive Director

  • Thank you, Joshua, and thanks to everyone on the call for joining us this morning. By now, I am sure that many of you read our press release on January 23, detailing our planned management succession process at Sensata. On March 1, I will officially pass the baton of CEO over to Jeff Cote as part of a well-planned transition process, and I am delighted to do so. While I will be retiring as CEO, I will remain as a strategic adviser and Board member as the company executes the strategy we have laid out for our investors over the past several years.

    謝謝約書亞,也感謝今天早上參加我們電話會議的所有人。到目前為止,我相信你們中的許多人都閱讀了我們 1 月 23 日發布的新聞稿,其中詳細介紹了我們計劃的森薩塔管理層繼任流程。3 月 1 日,我將正式將執行長的接力棒移交給 Jeff Cote,作為精心計劃的過渡過程的一部分,我很高興這樣做。雖然我將以執行長的身份退休,但我將繼續擔任策略顧問和董事會成員,因為公司正在執行我們過去幾年為投資者制定的策略。

  • As you know, Jeff and I have worked closely together since his arrival at Sensata 13 years ago. Over the past 7 years, he has had significant company-wide operational responsibilities, including leading our global operations team and all of our business segments with full P&L responsibility.

    如你所知,自從 Jeff 13 年前加入森薩塔以來,我和他一直密切合作。在過去的 7 年裡,他在全公司範圍內承擔了重要的營運職責,包括領導我們的全球營運團隊和所有業務部門,並全面負責損益。

  • Jeff and I, along with the rest of the leadership team at Sensata, have collaborated closely in developing and executing the strategy to position Sensata for the next wave of future growth. Key to this effort is leveraging our industry leadership to take advantage of the megatrends that transform our industry and deliver growth to Sensata. This effort, which we first unveiled at our Investor Day in December 2017, provides excellent preparation for Jeff as he moves into the CEO position.

    Jeff 和我,以及森薩塔領導團隊的其他成員,在製定和執行策略方面密切合作,使森薩塔能夠迎接下一波未來的成長。這項工作的關鍵是利用我們的行業領導地位,利用大趨勢來改變我們的行業並為森薩塔帶來成長。我們在 2017 年 12 月的投資者日首次公佈了這項工作,為傑夫擔任執行長做好了充分的準備。

  • So as we close out 2019 and I conclude my tenure as CEO, I wanted to share some perspective on Sensata's progress and achievements and convey my excitement for Sensata's future. I am confident that Jeff and the rest of the leadership team will build on our past accomplishments to create strong returns and shareholder value.

    因此,在 2019 年即將結束、我的執行長任期即將結束之際,我想分享一些關於森薩塔進展和成就的觀點,並表達我對森薩塔未來的興奮之情。我相信傑夫和領導團隊的其他成員將在我們過去的成就的基礎上創造強勁的回報和股東價值。

  • One of the differentiating features of Sensata is that we have built long-standing relationships with customers around the world who rely on us to develop mission-critical, sensor-rich solutions that address both their current and evolving needs. Our relationships, combined with our innovation capabilities and strength in engineering, enable us to outgrow our end markets.

    森薩塔的特色之一是我們與世界各地的客戶建立了長期合作關係,他們依靠我們開發關鍵任務、感測器豐富的解決方案來滿足他們當前和不斷變化的需求。我們的關係,加上我們的創新能力和工程實力,使我們能夠超越我們的終端市場。

  • We have also built and are constantly optimizing a highly efficient global manufacturing and supply chain network. These pillars of our strategy have produced differentiated sensing solutions for our customers and industry-leading margins, and will remain important elements of our strategy as we go forward.

    我們也建立並持續優化高效的全球製造和供應鏈網路。我們策略的這些支柱為我們的客戶提供了差異化的感測解決方案和業界領先的利潤,並且在我們前進的過程中仍將是我們策略的重要組成部分。

  • Over the past 7 years, we have implemented an effective capital deployment strategy that has created value for our shareholders while providing the company greater flexibility and optionality. We've completed 11 acquisitions, which are generating strong returns, have added new capability and have led to greater diversification of our end market exposure.

    過去7年來,我們實施了有效的資本配置策略,為股東創造了價值,同時為公司提供了更大的靈活性和可選擇性。我們已經完成了 11 項收購,這些收購產生了豐厚的回報,增加了新的能力,並使我們的終端市場業務更加多元化。

  • Our expanded position and focus on executing growth opportunities in the industrial, HVOR and aerospace industries have reduced our exposure to the automotive market, from over 70% to approximately 59% today and will continue to decline -- this will continue to decline.

    我們擴大的地位以及對在工業、HVOR 和航空航天行業執行成長機會的關注,減少了我們在汽車市場的敞口,從超過70% 降至目前的約59%,並將繼續下降——這將繼續下降。

  • Our Sensing Solutions business has greater scale and a broader portfolio to capitalize on attractive opportunities in this large and fragmented market. Our M&A strategy has added important new capability in wireless sensing, software and subsystem integration and high-voltage electrical architecture. These capabilities, along with our best-in-class sensing portfolio, had provided the foundation for our electrification and Smart & Connected initiative.

    我們的感測解決方案業務擁有更大的規模和更廣泛的產品組合,可以充分利用這個龐大而分散的市場中有吸引力的機會。我們的併購策略在無線感測、軟體和子系統整合以及高壓電氣架構方面增加了重要的新能力。這些功能以及我們一流的感測產品組合為我們的電氣化和智慧互聯計畫奠定了基礎。

  • In addition, since our redomicile to the U.K. in 2018, we have repurchased approximately $750 million of Sensata's stock while further strengthening our balance sheet, enabling us to make returns-based trade-offs between investing in our business, completing M&A and buying back our own shares.

    此外,自2018 年遷至英國以來,我們回購了約7.5 億美元的森薩塔股票,同時進一步強化了我們的資產負債表,使我們能夠在投資業務、完成併購和回購我們的業務之間進行基於回報的權衡。

  • In light of this progress, you can see why we are so confident in Sensata's future. Jeff and the rest of the leadership team have been integral to our effort to expand in high-growth auto and accelerate growth in HVOR, industrial and aerospace industries.

    鑑於這一進展,您就會明白為什麼我們對森薩塔的未來如此充滿信心。Jeff 和領導團隊的其他成員在我們擴大高成長汽車業務以及加速 HVOR、工業和航空航天行業成長的努力中發揮了不可或缺的作用。

  • Our capital deployment decisions, combined with disciplined operational management, have enabled us to deliver solid financial performance.

    我們的資本部署決策與嚴格的營運管理相結合,使我們能夠實現穩健的財務表現。

  • While our end markets have been weak, during my tenure as CEO, we have grown our revenue from $1.9 billion to $3.5 billion, while meaningfully outgrowing our end markets and nearly doubling our employee base. Additionally, our focus on cost efficiency and our ability to capture M&A cost synergies, helped us to generate a 7-year EPS CAGR of approximately 9%.

    雖然我們的終端市場一直疲軟,但在我擔任執行長期間,我們的收入從19 億美元增長到35 億美元,同時顯著超越了我們的終端市場,並且我們的員工數量幾乎翻了一番。此外,我們對成本效率的關注以及我們捕捉併購成本協同效應的能力,幫助我們實現了約 9% 的 7 年 EPS 複合年增長率。

  • While I am proud of our team and their achievements, I am even more excited about the opportunities that lay ahead for the company. Jeff is the perfect leader to deliver strong value creation for our shareholders, our customers and our employees.

    我為我們的團隊和他們的成就感到自豪,但我對公司面臨的機會更加興奮。傑夫是為我們的股東、客戶和員工創造強大價值的完美領導者。

  • Our progress thus far is a strong testament to the high-caliber leadership and team who comprise Sensata today, and I am deeply grateful for their commitment and support over the years. I have tremendous confidence in the entire team and could not be more excited about the future. I look forward to continuing to provide support as an adviser and a Board member, especially around innovation, as we move forward.

    我們迄今為止的進展有力地證明了今天森薩塔的高素質領導層和團隊,我對他們多年來的承諾和支持深表感謝。我對整個團隊充滿信心,對未來感到無比興奮。我期待著作為顧問和董事會成員繼續提供支持,特別是在我們前進的創新方面。

  • I also want to thank our long-term shareholders for your support of me and Sensata. Many of you have owned our shares for more than 5 years. I appreciate the constructive feedback you have provided me over the years, your conviction in our vision and strategy and your trust in us to be responsible stewards of your capital.

    我還要感謝我們的長期股東對我和森薩塔的支持。你們中的許多人持有我們的股票超過 5 年。我感謝您多年來為我提供的建設性回饋,感謝您對我們的願景和策略的信念,以及您對我們成為負責任的資本管理者的信任。

  • I'd like to now turn the call over to Jeff to speak in more depth about our recent performance and our key priorities for 2020. Jeff?

    我現在想把電話轉給 Jeff,更深入地談談我們最近的表現以及 2020 年的主要優先事項。傑夫?

  • Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

    Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

  • Thank you, Martha. It is an honor to be named the next CEO of Sensata, and I'm thrilled to lead such a talented group of individuals during this very exciting time for our company. Martha and I have worked closely to develop our strategy, which will continue to focus on mission-critical, hard-to-do applications, further diversifying our business, investing in high-growth megatrends and capitalizing on opportunities where we develop sensor-rich solutions that create value for our customers. I look forward to continuing our legacy of growth, profitability and success.

    謝謝你,瑪莎。我很榮幸被任命為森薩塔的下一任首席執行官,我很高興能夠在我們公司這個激動人心的時刻領導如此才華橫溢的團隊。瑪莎和我密切合作制定了我們的策略,該策略將繼續專注於任務關鍵型、難以完成的應用,進一步實現我們的業務多元化,投資於高成長的大趨勢,並利用我們開發富含感測器的解決方案的機會為我們的客戶創造價值。我期待著繼續我們的成長、獲利和成功傳統。

  • Now let me turn my attention to our performance in the fourth quarter of 2019. On Slide 4, I list some of the key highlights of the fourth quarter. We reported revenues of $846.7 million, which represented an organic revenue decline of 0.8% but exceeded the high end of our guidance range. We delivered adjusted earnings per share of $0.89, which was also at the high end of our guidance range. We faced a very difficult end market environment in the fourth quarter, particularly in our heavy vehicle off-road end market, which declined 14% in the quarter. Despite these market headwinds, we continue to significantly outgrow our end markets, posting market outgrowth of 490 basis points in automotive and 1,190 basis points in heavy vehicle off-road. One of the key drivers of our overall secular growth was China, which generated 20% organic revenue growth in the fourth quarter. This performance was primarily driven by strong market outgrowth as our customers prepare to comply with China VI regulations.

    現在讓我把注意力轉向我們2019年第四季的表現。在幻燈片 4 上,我列出了第四季度的一些主要亮點。我們報告的收入為 8.467 億美元,有機收入下降 0.8%,但超出了我們指導範圍的上限。我們的調整後每股收益為 0.89 美元,也處於我們指導範圍的高端。第四季我們面臨著非常困難的終端市場環境,特別是重型車輛越野終端市場,該季度下降了 14%。儘管存在這些市場阻力,我們的成長仍顯著超過終端市場,汽車市場成長 490 個基點,重型越野車市場成長 1,190 個基點。中國是我們整體長期成長的主要驅動力之一,第四季的有機收入成長了 20%。這項業績主要是由強勁的市場成長所推動的,因為我們的客戶準備遵守國六法規。

  • We generated adjusted operating margins of 22.7% in the fourth quarter, which was in line with our guidance and includes incremental growth investments made in our megatrend initiatives.

    我們第四季度的調整後營業利潤率為 22.7%,這符合我們的指導方針,並且包括在我們的大趨勢計劃中進行的增量成長投資。

  • We generated $148 million in free cash flow in the quarter, which exceeded our adjusted net income and represents a conversion rate of 104%.

    本季我們產生了 1.48 億美元的自由現金流,超過了調整後的淨利潤,轉換率為 104%。

  • Finally, we continue to make important long-term investments in megatrends for future growth and are excited about the progress we are making in our Smart & Connected and Electrification initiatives, which I will describe in more detail later in this presentation.

    最後,我們繼續對未來成長的大趨勢進行重要的長期投資,並對我們在智慧互聯和電氣化計劃方面取得的進展感到興奮,我將在本演講的後面部分更詳細地描述這些計劃。

  • Slide 5 shows organic revenue growth or performance by end market in the fourth quarter. I will begin with our aerospace, industrial and other end markets. For the fourth quarter of 2019, we posted 0.7% organic growth in this business. Our aerospace business had a particularly strong fourth quarter, posting double-digit organic revenue growth as a result of a strong end market, continued content growth and solid aftermarket performance.

    幻燈片 5 顯示了第四季度終端市場的有機收入成長或業績。我將從我們的航空航太、工業和其他終端市場開始。2019 年第四季度,我們該業務的有機成長為 0.7%。我們的航空航太業務在第四季度表現尤為強勁,由於強勁的終端市場、持續的內容成長和穩健的售後市場表現,實現了兩位數的有機收入成長。

  • Our industrial business in China continued to decline, but improved significantly on a sequential basis. While channel inventory reductions are pressuring results, our fourth quarter performance benefited from modestly better market dynamics.

    我們在中國的工業業務持續下滑,但較上季明顯改善。雖然通路庫存減少給業績帶來壓力,但我們第四季的業績得益於市場動態的適度改善。

  • Our automotive business posted an organic revenue decline of 1.1% in the quarter. This was 490 basis points better than the global end market decline of 6% in the fourth quarter and was in line with the expectations we shared with you in October.

    我們的汽車業務本季有機收入下降 1.1%。這比第四季全球終端市場下降 6% 好 490 個基點,符合我們 10 月與您分享的預期。

  • During the fourth quarter, we generated double-digit organic revenue growth in our China automotive business as a result of strong content gains and end market growth of 3%. Our North American automotive business saw its fourth quarter performance adversely affected by the GM strike, which resulted in meaningful end market decline, even though content growth remained strong in this region. In Europe, we continue to be affected by a volatile end market, primarily as a result of a general market decline due to softer exports to China and specific weakness in the U.K. and Turkey.

    第四季度,由於強勁的內容成長和 3% 的終端市場成長,我們的中國汽車業務實現了兩位數的有機收入成長。我們的北美汽車業務第四季業績受到通用汽車罷工的不利影響,導致終端市場大幅下滑,儘管該地區的內容成長仍然強勁。在歐洲,我們繼續受到終端市場波動的影響,主要是由於對中國的出口疲軟以及英國和土耳其的具體疲軟導致市場整體下滑。

  • Our heavy vehicle off-road business posted an organic revenue decline of 1.9%, which represented 1,190 basis points of outgrowth versus a 13.8% end market decline during the fourth quarter. The largest end market decline in the quarter was from the construction end market, which was down 25%, followed by double-digit end market declines for both North America and European on-road truck. The bright spot for this business remains our China on-road truck business, which continues to post healthy growth as a result of strong content performance, especially as OEMs prepare for the implementation of China VI regulations.

    我們的重型車輛越野業務的有機收入下降了 1.9%,與第四季度終端市場下降 13.8% 相比,成長了 1,190 個基點。本季最大的終端市場降幅來自建築終端市場,下降了 25%,其次是北美和歐洲公路卡車終端市場出現兩位數降幅。該業務的亮點仍然是我們的中國道路卡車業務,由於強勁的內容表現,特別是在整車廠為實施國六法規做準備的情況下,該業務繼續保持健康成長。

  • On Slide 6, we show outgrowth versus end market over the past 2 years. At our Investor Day in 2017, we made a commitment to significantly outgrow our end markets. Specifically, we stated our outgrowth in our automotive business would be in the range of 400 to 600 basis points, and our heavy vehicle off-road business would be in the range of 600 to 800 basis points.

    在投影片 6 中,我們展示了過去兩年的成長與終端市場的比較。在 2017 年投資者日,我們承諾大幅超越我們的終端市場。具體來說,我們表示汽車業務的成長將在 400 至 600 個基點的範圍內,重型車輛越野業務的成長將在 600 至 800 個基點的範圍內。

  • After 2 years of execution, I'm pleased to report that we are operating right in the middle of the targets we set. Our automotive business has generated average outgrowth of 495 basis points while our heavy vehicle off-road business operated at an average of 735 basis points outgrowth over that 2-year period. This performance speaks to the visibility that we have into our content performance, even during periods of end market volatility.

    經過兩年的執行,我很高興地報告說,我們正在按照我們設定的目標進行運作。兩年期間,我們的汽車業務平均成長 495 個基點,而重型車輛越野業務平均成長 735 個基點。這一表現說明了我們對內容表現的可見性,即使在終端市場波動時期也是如此。

  • Unfortunately, our strong outgrowth has been offset by unanticipated declines in our end markets. For example, in automotive, we have seen end market decline of 3.2% on average since 2017 compared to our expectation that the market would be flat. In heavy vehicle off-road, our end markets grew 0.8% per year since 2017, in contrast to our expectations that, that market would grow 3% per year.

    不幸的是,我們的強勁成長被終端市場意外的下滑所抵消。例如,在汽車領域,自 2017 年以來,我們的終端市場平均下降了 3.2%,而我們預計市場將持平。在重型越野車方面,自 2017 年以來,我們的終端市場每年增長 0.8%,與我們預期的每年增長 3% 形成鮮明對比。

  • In 2019, we closed nearly $400 million in new business wins, which is lower than our expectations as customers pushed out decisions on a number of new platforms. We would expect an acceleration of new business wins in 2020 as we capture some of these delayed opportunities and we have a strong pipeline to support that outcome.

    2019 年,我們贏得了近 4 億美元的新業務,這低於我們的預期,因為客戶在許多新平台上推出了決策。我們預計 2020 年新業務將加速成長,因為我們抓住了其中一些延遲的機會,並且我們擁有強大的管道來支持這一成果。

  • The key message that I want you to take away from this slide is that we have confidence in our ability to sustain a consistent level of outgrowth into 2020 and beyond.

    我希望您從這張投影片中了解到的關鍵訊息是,我們有信心在 2020 年及以後維持穩定的成長水準。

  • Moving to Slide 7. I want to share some updates about progress we are making in our megatrend initiatives as well as our plans to accelerate our investment in these areas in 2020. I described on our last quarter's call our activities related to Smart & Connected. We are currently testing proof of concepts with some of the world's leading fleet managers. Our solution is working in real-world environments and is currently capturing data on trucks and trailers in our customers' fleets. Our tire pressure sensing application has demonstrated a clear and compelling value proposition. We are helping fleet managers identify which trucks and trailers in their fleet are not ready to be driven, well before they hit the road. This is helping them eliminate downtime, reduce operating costs and create safer driving conditions in their fleets.

    轉到幻燈片 7。我在上個季度的電話會議上描述了我們與智慧和連結相關的活動。我們目前正在與一些世界領先的車隊管理者一起測試概念驗證。我們的解決方案正在現實環境中運行,目前正在捕獲客戶車隊中卡車和拖車的數據。我們的輪胎壓力感測應用展現了清晰且引人注目的價值主張。我們正在幫助車隊經理在上路之前識別其車隊中的哪些卡車和拖車尚未準備好駕駛。這有助於他們消除停機時間、降低營運成本並為車隊創造更安全的駕駛條件。

  • We expect to be able to announce additional business wins with both fleet managers and OEMs later this year. Due to our progress and excitement about this initiative, we plan to increase our investment in Smart & Connected in 2020 to support our efforts.

    我們預計今年稍後能夠宣布與車隊經理和原始設備製造商贏得更多業務。由於我們對這項計劃的進展和興奮,我們計劃在 2020 年增加對智慧互聯的投資以支持我們的努力。

  • On the Electrification front, we continue to have confidence that a large portion of our solutions that serve the market for combustion engines, will continue to be required in an electrified environment. Further, we continue to add capabilities to allow us to capitalize on this electrification trend. For instance, a little more than a year ago, we acquired GIGAVAC to expand our electrification offering into high-voltage contactors, and we are quickly establishing ourselves as the standard for premium electrified vehicles, particularly with the most challenging applications with high current levels.

    在電氣化方面,我們仍然相信,我們服務於內燃機市場的大部分解決方案將繼續在電氣化環境中得到需求。此外,我們繼續增加功能,使我們能夠利用這一電氣化趨勢。例如,一年多前,我們收購了GIGAVAC,將我們的電氣化產品擴展到高壓接觸器領域,我們正在迅速將自己確立為優質電動車的標準,特別是在高電流水平的最具挑戰性的應用中。

  • Additionally, Sensata has a leadership position in the DC fast-charging infrastructure segment, which is growing greater than 30% a year. Also, we were the first company in the industry to develop a smart sensor that addresses safety issues associated with risk of thermal runaway in batteries, and we have had several wins related to this solution in 2019.

    此外,森薩塔在直流快速充電基礎設施領域佔據領導地位,該領域每年增長超過 30%。此外,我們是業內第一家開發智慧感測器的公司,該感測器可解決與電池熱失控風險相關的安全問題,並且我們在 2019 年獲得了與該解決方案相關的多項勝利。

  • We continue to extend our market share leadership in various thermal management and motor position applications in both hybrid and full electric battery vehicles. And we have an active new business pipeline in electrification applications, and we are increasing our R&D investment to pursue this growth. A significant portion of our new business wins will eventually serve electrification trends in all of our end markets that we serve.

    我們繼續擴大在混合動力和全電動電池汽車的各種熱管理和馬達定位應用領域的市場份額領先地位。我們在電氣化應用方面擁有活躍的新業務管道,並且我們正在增加研發投資以實現這一成長。我們贏得的新業務的很大一部分最終將服務於我們所服務的所有終端市場的電氣化趨勢。

  • So for both Smart & Connected and Electrification, we are very excited about our efforts thus far and continue to believe that our progress in these important initiatives will help Sensata differentiate itself with customers and lead to long-term advantages for our company and our shareholders.

    因此,對於智慧互聯和電氣化,我們對迄今為止的努力感到非常興奮,並繼續相信我們在這些重要舉措中取得的進展將幫助森薩塔在客戶中脫穎而出,並為我們公司和股東帶來長期優勢。

  • On Slide 8, we summarize some key messages, which we have discussed. We are delivering on our promise for outgrowth to market despite end market volatility. We are accelerating our investments for growth, given the opportunities we see. We are generating solid free cash flow, and we will continue to strengthen our portfolio through disciplined value-add M&A.

    在投影片 8 中,我們總結了我們已經討論過的一些關鍵資訊。儘管終端市場波動,但我們仍在履行對市場成長的承諾。鑑於我們看到的機遇,我們正在加快成長投資。我們正在產生穩定的自由現金流,並將繼續透過嚴格的增值併購來加強我們的投資組合。

  • I'd now like to turn the call over to Paul to review our fourth quarter and full year 2019 results in more detail and also to provide guidance for the first quarter and full year 2020. Paul?

    我現在想將電話轉給 Paul,以更詳細地審查我們的 2019 年第四季度和全年業績,並為 2020 年第一季和全年提供指導。保羅?

  • Paul S. Vasington - CFO, CAO & Executive VP

    Paul S. Vasington - CFO, CAO & Executive VP

  • Thank you, Jeff. Key highlights for the fourth quarter, as shown on Slide 10, include: revenue of $846.7 million in the quarter, a decrease of 0.1% from the fourth quarter of 2018; changes in foreign currency decreased revenues by 0.3%; the acquisition of GIGAVAC increased revenue by 1%. The net result was 0.8% organic revenue decline in the quarter.

    謝謝你,傑夫。如投影片 10 所示,第四季的主要亮點包括: 該季度營收為 8.467 億美元,較 2018 年第四季下降 0.1%;外幣變動使收入減少 0.3%;收購 GIGAVAC 使收入增加了 1%。本季的最終結果是有機收入下降 0.8%。

  • Adjusted operating income was $192.5 million in the quarter, a decrease of 8.4% compared to the fourth quarter of 2018, driven primarily by the decline in organic revenues; productivity headwinds, partially due to increasing new product launches; greater design and development effort to support new business wins and megatrend growth initiatives; and higher incentive compensation. These factors were somewhat offset by savings from repositioning actions taken this year.

    本季調整後營業收入為 1.925 億美元,較 2018 年第四季下降 8.4%,主要是由於有機收入下降;生產力的逆風,部分原因是新產品發表的增加;加大設計和開發力度,以支持新業務的勝利和大趨勢增長計劃;以及更高的激勵薪酬。這些因素在一定程度上被今年採取的重新定位行動帶來的節省所抵消。

  • Adjusted net income was $141.7 million in the quarter, a decrease of 10.1% compared to the prior year quarter.

    該季度調整後淨利潤為 1.417 億美元,比去年同期下降 10.1%。

  • Adjusted EPS was $0.89 in the fourth quarter, a decrease of 6.3% compared to the prior year quarter.

    第四季調整後每股收益為 0.89 美元,比去年同期下降 6.3%。

  • Now I'd like to comment on the performance of our 2 business segments in the fourth quarter of 2019. I will start with Performance Sensing on Slide 11.

    現在我想談談我們2019年第四季兩個業務部門的業績。我將從投影片 11 上的效能感知開始。

  • Performance Sensing reported revenues of $632.9 million for the fourth quarter, a decrease of 1% compared to the same quarter last year, reflecting a negative impact from foreign currency of 0.3% and a positive impact on the acquisition of GIGAVAC of 0.6%. Excluding these factors, Performance Sensing organic revenue declined 1.3% compared to the prior quarter.

    Performance Sensing報告第四季營收為6.329億美元,較去年同期下降1%,反映出外匯帶來的0.3%的負面影響以及收購GIGAVAC帶來的0.6%的正面影響。排除這些因素,Performance Sensing 有機收入較上一季下降 1.3%。

  • Our automotive business reported an organic revenue decline of 1.1% in the fourth quarter of 2019, but outpaced the end market by 490 basis points. Organic revenue growth in China was offset by organic revenue declines in North America and Europe. The GM strike reduced our fourth quarter revenues in North America by approximately $10 million, which was less than expected. Excluding the GM strike, our North American auto business delivered organic revenue growth in the quarter, driven by high single-digit content growth.

    我們的汽車業務報告稱,2019 年第四季有機收入下降 1.1%,但成長超出終端市場 490 個基點。中國的有機收入成長被北美和歐洲的有機收入下降所抵消。通用汽車罷工使我們第四季在北美的收入減少了約 1000 萬美元,低於預期。排除通用汽車的罷工,在高單位數內容成長的推動下,我們的北美汽車業務在本季度實現了有機收入成長。

  • Our HVOR business reported an organic revenue decline of 1.9% in the fourth quarter, far outpacing a 14% end market decline by 1,190 basis points, primarily due to strong content growth in our China on-road truck business.

    我們的 HVOR 業務第四季度有機收入下降 1.9%,遠超過終端市場 14% 的降幅 1,190 個基點,這主要是由於我們中國公路卡車業務內容的強勁增長。

  • Performance Sensing operating income was $165.1 million, a decrease of 7% as compared to the prior year quarter. And operating income as a percent of revenue was 26.1% in the fourth quarter, a decline of 170 basis points. The decline in segment operating income was due primarily to the decline in organic revenue, productivity headwinds partially due to increasing new product launches and greater design and development effort to support new business wins and megatrend growth initiatives, somewhat offset by savings from restructuring actions.

    Performance Sensing 營業收入為 1.651 億美元,比去年同期下降 7%。第四季營業收入佔收入的百分比為26.1%,下降170個基點。部門營業收入下降的主要原因是有機收入下降、生產力逆風,部分原因是新產品推出增加以及為支持新業務勝利和大趨勢增長計劃而加大設計和開發力度,但在一定程度上被重組行動節省的成本所抵銷。

  • As shown on Slide 12, Sensing Solutions reported revenues of $213.8 million in the fourth quarter, an increase of 2.3% as compared to the prior year quarter.

    如投影片 12 所示,Sensing Solutions 報告第四季營收為 2.138 億美元,比去年同期成長 2.3%。

  • Organic revenue increased 0.7%, which excludes a negative impact from foreign currency of 0.4% and a positive impact from the acquisition of GIGAVAC of 2%. This increase was a result of double-digit organic growth in our aerospace business driven by shorter content in a healthy end market, partially offset by industrial market declines, albeit less significant than previously anticipated.

    有機收入成長 0.7%,其中不包括 0.4% 的外匯負面影響和 2% 的收購 GIGAVAC 帶來的正面影響。這一增長是由於我們的航空航天業務在健康的終端市場中較短的內容推動下實現了兩位數的有機增長,部分被工業市場的下降所抵消,儘管不如之前預期的那麼顯著。

  • Sensing Solutions operating income was $68.2 million in the fourth quarter, a decrease of 0.8% from the prior year quarter. The slight decline in operating income was due primarily to productivity and foreign currency headwinds, somewhat offset by savings from repositioning actions and the acquisition of GIGAVAC.

    感測解決方案第四季營業收入為 6,820 萬美元,比去年同期下降 0.8%。營業收入略有下降,主要是由於生產力和外匯不利因素,但重新定位行動和收購 GIGAVAC 帶來的節省在一定程度上抵消了營業收入的下降。

  • Corporate and other costs, not included in segment operating income, were $52.3 million in the fourth quarter. Excluding charges added back to our non-GAAP results, corporate and other costs were $39.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2019, up approximately $5 million from the fourth quarter of 2018, primarily due to higher variable compensation and administrative costs.

    第四季的公司和其他成本(不包括在部門營業收入中)為 5,230 萬美元。不計入非 GAAP 業績的費用,2019 年第四季的公司和其他成本為 3,910 萬美元,比 2018 年第四季增加約 500 萬美元,主要是由於可變薪酬和管理成本較高。

  • Slide 13 shows Sensata's fourth quarter 2019 non-GAAP results. Adjusted gross profit declined 4.5% year-over-year to $298 million, and gross margins declined 160 basis points to 35.2%. The decline in gross profit and margin were primarily due to declining organic revenues; productivity headwinds, partially related to increasing new product launches; higher variable compensation; and unfavorable foreign currency, somewhat offset by the acquisition of GIGAVAC and savings from repositioning actions.

    幻燈片 13 顯示了森薩塔 2019 年第四季度非 GAAP 業績。調整後毛利年減 4.5% 至 2.98 億美元,毛利率下降 160 個基點至 35.2%。毛利和利潤率下降主要是由於有機收入下降;生產力逆風,部分與新產品發布的增加有關;更高的可變補償;以及不利的外幣匯率,但在一定程度上被收購 GIGAVAC 和重新定位行動帶來的節省所抵消。

  • R&D costs were up 8.3% due primarily to increasing design and development effort, support new business wins and investment in megatrends.

    研發成本成長 8.3%,主要是由於設計和開發工作的增加、支持新業務的獲勝以及對大趨勢的投資。

  • SG&A costs increased 1% through the acquisition of GIGAVAC. Excluding the impact of GIGAVAC, SG&A costs were flat with the prior year quarter as we align our cost structure to the lower revenues we are experiencing.

    透過收購 GIGAVAC,SG&A 成本增加了 1%。排除 GIGAVAC 的影響,SG&A 成本與去年同期持平,因為我們根據收入下降調整了成本結構。

  • As a result, adjusted operating income was down 8.4% compared to the prior year quarter.

    因此,調整後營業收入較上年同期下降 8.4%。

  • Our tax rate, shown on the slide as a percent of adjusted profit before tax, was roughly flat compared to the prior year.

    我們的稅率(在投影片中顯示為調整後稅前利潤的百分比)與前一年相比大致持平。

  • Finally, adjusted EPS was down $0.06 or 6.3% as compared to the fourth quarter of 2018, as the decline in operating income was partially offset by the benefit of share repurchases.

    最後,調整後每股盈餘較 2018 年第四季下降 0.06 美元,即 6.3%,因為營業收入的下降被股票回購的收益部分抵銷。

  • Slide 14 shows Sensata's full year 2019 non-GAAP results. Adjusted gross profit declined 5.4% year-over-year to $1.2 billion, and gross margins declined 130 basis points to 35%. The decline in gross profit and margin were primarily due to the decline in organic revenues; productivity headwinds, partially related to increasing new product launches; the net impact from acquisitions and divestitures, partially offset by favorable foreign currency and lower variable compensation costs.

    幻燈片 14 顯示了森薩塔 2019 年全年非 GAAP 業績。調整後毛利年減 5.4% 至 12 億美元,毛利率下降 130 個基點至 35%。毛利和利潤率下降主要是由於有機收入下降;生產力的逆風,部分與新產品發布的增加有關;收購和剝離的淨影響被有利的外匯和較低的可變補償成本部分抵消。

  • R&D costs were $148.4 million, up 0.8% year-over-year, as increases in design development efforts to support new business wins and megatrend growth initiatives were mostly offset by the favorable impact of foreign currency.

    研發成本為 1.484 億美元,年成長 0.8%,這是因為支持新業務獲勝和大趨勢成長計畫的設計開發工作的增加大部分被外匯的有利影響所抵消。

  • SG&A costs were $267.4 million, or 8.6% lower year-over-year, due primarily to lower variable compensation and selling costs, favorable foreign currency and cost savings from repositioning actions.

    SG&A 成本為 2.674 億美元,年減 8.6%,這主要是由於可變薪酬和銷售成本降低、有利的外匯以及重新定位行動節省的成本。

  • As a result, adjusted operating income was down 5.6% compared to the prior year.

    因此,調整後營業收入較上年下降 5.6%。

  • Our tax rate shown on the slide as a percent of adjusted profit before tax was up 40 basis points year-over-year to 8.6%, in line with our guidance.

    投影片中顯示的稅率佔調整後稅前利潤的百分比年增 40 個基點,達到 8.6%,與我們的指導一致。

  • Finally, adjusted EPS was down $0.09 or 2.5% as compared to 2018, as the decline in operating income was mostly offset by the benefit of share repurchases.

    最後,調整後每股盈餘較 2018 年下降 0.09 美元,即 2.5%,因為營業收入的下降大部分被股票回購的收益所抵銷。

  • Free cash flow was $458.3 million during the year or 79.6% of adjusted net income and exceeded the free cash flow guidance provided last October.

    年內自由現金流為 4.583 億美元,佔調整後淨利潤的 79.6%,超過了去年 10 月提供的自由現金流指引。

  • Net leverage ended the year at 2.8x and within our target range of 2.5 to 3.5x.

    年底淨槓桿率為 2.8 倍,位於我們 2.5 至 3.5 倍的目標範圍內。

  • On Slide 15, I show our financial guidance for the first quarter of 2020, which includes our best estimate of the business impact related to the recent coronavirus outbreak, which is quickly changing and highly uncertain. Furthermore, it's very difficult to predict when the government-imposed quarantines will end, when travel restrictions will be lifted, when our plants will be fully operational and the ultimate impact on end market demand. That said, we estimate for both the first quarter and full year 2020 a $40 million revenue and a $20 million operating profit negative impact. The $20 million operating profit drop reflects the normal impact from the expected lost revenue as well as underutilized and stranded costs related to this sudden event. We continue to monitor the situation closely, and we are doing everything possible to protect our employees and serve our customers.

    在投影片 15 中,我展示了我們 2020 年第一季的財務指引,其中包括我們對近期冠狀病毒爆發相關業務影響的最佳估計,該疫情變化迅速且高度不確定。此外,很難預測政府實施的隔離何時結束、旅行限制何時取消、我們的工廠何時全面運作以及對終端市場需求的最終影響。也就是說,我們預計 2020 年第一季和全年將產生 4,000 萬美元的收入和 2,000 萬美元的營業利潤負面影響。營業利潤下降 2000 萬美元反映了預期收入損失以及與這一突發事件相關的未充分利用和擱淺成本的正常影響。我們將繼續密切關注事態發展,並盡一切努力保護我們的員工並服務我們的客戶。

  • For the first quarter of 2020, we expect to report revenues between $793 million and $817 million, representing a reported revenue decline between 6% and 9%. At the midpoint of our guidance, we expect that foreign currency will decrease revenues year-over-year by approximately $5 million. [Excluding] the impact of foreign currency, we expect to report an organic revenue decline of 6% to 8% in the first quarter.

    我們預計 2020 年第一季的營收將在 7.93 億美元至 8.17 億美元之間,報告營收下降 6% 至 9%。在我們指導的中點,我們預計外幣收入將年減約 500 萬美元。[排除]外匯影響,我們預期第一季有機收入將下降 6% 至 8%。

  • Our current fill rate was approximately 93% of the revenue guidance midpoint for the first quarter and reflects lower-than-normal production of our manufacturing sites in China and reduced customer demand.

    我們目前的填充率約為第一季營收指引中點的 93%,反映出我們中國製造基地的產量低於正常水準以及客戶需求的減少。

  • We expect to report adjusted operating income between $149 million and $155 million. On the bottom line, we expect to report adjusted net income between $98 million and $104 million, which would represent a decline of 25% to 30%.

    我們預計調整後的營業收入將在 1.49 億美元至 1.55 億美元之間。總體而言,我們預計調整後淨利潤將在 9,800 萬美元至 1.04 億美元之間,下降 25% 至 30%。

  • We expect to report adjusted EPS between $0.62 and $0.66, which includes a $0.01 negative impact from foreign currency at the guidance midpoint.

    我們預計調整後每股收益將在 0.62 美元至 0.66 美元之間,其中包括外幣對指導中點的 0.01 美元負面影響。

  • Throughout 2019, we implemented significant restructuring actions to better align our costs with the lower volumes we are experiencing. More recently, we announced the closing of our Carrickfergus plant in Northern Ireland to further optimize our manufacturing network and footprint. This action will result in approximately $7 million of annualized savings. We expect this manufacturing plant to be fully shut down in early 2021 and expect to incur approximately $15 million in restructuring costs in 2020 to complete this closure. Looking forward, Northern Island will remain an important expanding R&D center for Sensata.

    2019 年全年,我們實施了重大重組行動,以更好地調整我們的成本與銷售量下降的情況。最近,我們宣布關閉位於北愛爾蘭的卡里克弗格斯工廠,以進一步優化我們的製造網路和足跡。這項行動將每年節省約 700 萬美元。我們預計製造工廠將於 2021 年初完全關閉,並預計在 2020 年完成關閉將產生約 1,500 萬美元的重組成本。展望未來,北島仍將是森薩塔重要的不斷擴張的研發中心。

  • Now let me turn to our guidance for full year 2020 shown on Slide 16. For full year 2020, we expect revenue between $3.4 billion and $3.5 billion, representing a range between a 1% decline and 1% growth.

    現在讓我談談投影片 16 所示的 2020 年全年指引。對於 2020 年全年,我們預計營收在 34 億美元至 35 億美元之間,下降 1% 至成長 1% 之間。

  • We expect foreign currency to decrease revenue by approximately $15 million. Excluding foreign currency, our organic revenue guidance represents a range between a 1% decline and 2% growth.

    我們預計外幣收入將減少約 1500 萬美元。不計外幣,我們的有機收入指引範圍為下降 1% 至成長 2%。

  • We expect adjusted operating income between $753 million and $781 million, which would represent a range between a 1% and 4% decline.

    我們預計調整後的營業收入將在 7.53 億美元至 7.81 億美元之間,下降 1% 至 4%。

  • On the bottom line, we expect adjusted net income between $539 million and $565 million and adjusted earnings per share between $3.42 and $3.58 for the full year 2020, which represents a decline of 4% to growth of 1%.

    總體而言,我們預計 2020 年全年調整後淨利潤將在 5.39 億美元至 5.65 億美元之間,調整後每股收益將在 3.42 美元至 3.58 美元之間,即下降 4% 至增長 1%。

  • We expect foreign currency will have a $0.04 negative impact on EPS in 2020.

    我們預計外幣將對 2020 年每股盈餘產生 0.04 美元的負面影響。

  • Our EPS performance in 2020 reflects continued strong revenue outgrowth to our major end markets which continue to decline, and in the case of China, significant market uncertainty, as noted earlier in our prepared comments. Currently, we expect the effects of the coronavirus will reduce our EPS by $0.11, with all that occurring in the first quarter.

    我們2020 年的每股盈餘表現反映出我們主要終端市場的營收持續強勁成長,但營收成長持續下降,而就中國而言,市場存在巨大的不確定性,正如我們先前在準備的評論中指出的那樣。目前,我們預計冠狀病毒的影響將使我們的每股收益減少 0.11 美元,所有這些都發生在第一季。

  • With that said, we expect ongoing net productivity gains and savings from repositioning actions to fund our efforts to further strengthen our core business as well as expand our initiatives to intersect promising new megatrend growth opportunities, most of them will be in the areas of Electrification and Smart & Connected.

    話雖如此,我們預計透過重新定位行動將持續實現淨生產率的提高和節省,為我們進一步加強核心業務的努力提供資金,並擴大我們的舉措以交叉有希望的新大趨勢增長機會,其中大部分將在電氣化和智慧與互聯。

  • We expect that our adjusted tax rate will increase by approximately 100 basis points over 2019 and be in the range of 9.8% of adjusted profit before tax.

    我們預計調整後的稅率將比 2019 年增加約 100 個基點,調整後稅前利潤的範圍為 9.8%。

  • We expect to generate free cash flow of approximately $430 million and $470 million. This free cash flow guidance assumes annual capital expenditures of approximately $165 million to $175 million for the full year 2020.

    我們預計將產生約 4.3 億美元和 4.7 億美元的自由現金流。這項自由現金流指引假設 2020 年全年的年度資本支出約為 1.65 億至 1.75 億美元。

  • At our Investor Day in 2017, we shared with investors a 3-year financial plan. Since then, we have achieved a number of critical objectives, such as accelerating content growth over that period and creating greater flexibility in deploying capital. However, with our current 2020 guidance, we expect to fall short of our revenue, earnings and cash flow targets.

    在 2017 年的投資者日上,我們與投資者分享了一份 3 年財務計畫。從那時起,我們實現了許多關鍵目標,例如在此期間加速內容成長以及在資本部署方面創造更大的靈活性。然而,根據我們目前 2020 年的指導,我們預計將達不到我們的收入、利潤和現金流目標。

  • First, our end markets have weakened significantly, below the market growth assumptions embedded in our 3-year projection. This end market weakness will result in nearly $425 million less revenue over the 3-year period than originally expected.

    首先,我們的終端市場顯著疲軟,低於我們三年預測中的市場成長假設。終端市場疲軟將導致 3 年期間的收入比最初預期減少近 4.25 億美元。

  • Second, we divested a profitable but very slow-growing nonstrategic business in valve and purchased a small but very fast-growing business in GIGAVAC, which is critical to our electrification growth platform. These 2 factors, combined with lower-than-expected productivity gains, mostly due to lower volumes, are the main contributors to our expected shortfall to our 3-year targets.

    其次,我們剝離了閥門領域一項盈利但增長非常緩慢的非戰略業務,並購買了 GIGAVAC 一項規模雖小但增長非常快速的業務,這對我們的電氣化增長平台至關重要。這兩個因素,再加上生產力成長低於預期(主要是因為產量下降),是導致我們預計無法實現 3 年目標的主要原因。

  • On Slide 17, I share our expectations regarding most of our major end markets in 2020, which all continued to decline. We expect another difficult end market environment in 2020. But overall, we expect less of a headwind from our end markets in 2020 due to the modest improvements in the global auto and industrial markets, somewhat offset by a weaker HVOR end market.

    在投影片 17 中,我分享了我們對 2020 年大多數主要終端市場的預期,這些市場都持續下降。我們預計 2020 年終端市場環境將再次困難。但總體而言,由於全球汽車和工業市場略有改善,我們預計 2020 年終端市場的阻力將較小,但 HVOR 終端市場疲軟在一定程度上抵消了這一影響。

  • Now I'd like to turn the call back over to Joshua.

    現在我想把電話轉回約書亞。

  • Joshua S. Young - VP of IR

    Joshua S. Young - VP of IR

  • Thank you, Andrew. Please assemble the Q&A roster.

    謝謝你,安德魯。請整理問答名冊。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Samik Chatterjee of JP Morgan.

    (操作員說明) 第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Samik Chatterjee。

  • Samik Chatterjee - Analyst

    Samik Chatterjee - Analyst

  • Before I start, congratulations to both Martha and Jeff. I just wanted to start off with the content gains in 2020 relative to 2019. You're guiding to similar levels of content gains or even modestly higher. If you can help me with the drivers of the content gains you're thinking about in 2020. It looks like China VI regulation will be one on the heavy vehicle side.

    在開始之前,先祝賀瑪莎和傑夫。我只想從 2020 年相對 2019 年的內容成長開始。您將獲得類似水平的內容增益,甚至略高一些。如果您能幫助我了解您所考慮的 2020 年內容成長的驅動因素。看來國六法規將針對重型車輛。

  • And then how to think about the change in mix of the content gain towards the megatrends that you're investing towards?

    然後如何考慮內容增益組合對您投資的大趨勢的變化?

  • Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

    Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

  • Yes. Great question. So we tend to look at the content gains over a very long period of time, much like we look at our NBO opportunities given the long cycle nature of our business. As we mentioned in our prepared comments, we would expect similar content gains in 2020 and beyond that we've experienced over the last couple of years. And so that's an average in automotive of about 490, 500 basis points, and on HVOR in that 600 to 800 range, so midpoint, about 700.

    是的。很好的問題。因此,我們傾向於關注很長一段時間內的內容收益,就像考慮到我們業務的長週期性質,我們專注於 NBO 機會一樣。正如我們在準備好的評論中所提到的,我們預計 2020 年及以後會出現與過去幾年類似的內容成長。因此,汽車產業的平均水準約為 490、500 個基點,而 HVOR 的平均水準則在 600 至 800 範圍內,所以中點約為 700。

  • In terms of the opportunities that we're seeing, very much similar to the trend that we've been seeing in the past in terms of all of our customers aiming to achieve regulatory requirements around the world. And also, we are seeing impact of megatrend-related activity. And so about 1/3 of our NBO activity in 2019 was related to megatrend-related opportunities that will eventually turn into content growth. And so over the long period of time of 3, 5, 7 years, we'll see content shift more toward megatrends in the business, helping our customers achieve their objectives.

    就我們看到的機會而言,與我們過去看到的趨勢非常相似,即我們所有客戶都致力於滿足世界各地的監管要求。此外,我們也看到了大趨勢相關活動的影響。因此,2019 年我們大約 1/3 的 NBO 活動與大趨勢相關的機會有關,這些機會最終將轉化為內容成長。因此,在 3 年、5 年、7 年的漫長時間內,我們將看到內容更多地轉向業務大趨勢,幫助我們的客戶實現他們的目標。

  • Samik Chatterjee - Analyst

    Samik Chatterjee - Analyst

  • Got it. That's helpful. And if I can just clarify one more thing, which is you now guide to China automotive production being down 6% in 2020. That's relative to some third-party forecasts that are more for flat. So I'm assuming a big part of that impact is the 1Q impact given the events there. So if you can just help me think about how much of that -- how are you thinking about 1Q China automotive production? And if you can remind me what the average content per vehicle is for Sensata in China right now.

    知道了。這很有幫助。如果我能再澄清一件事,那就是你現在的預測是,2020 年中國汽車產量將下降 6%。這與一些更持平的第三方預測有關。因此,考慮到那裡發生的事件,我假設這種影響的很大一部分是第一季的影響。因此,如果您能幫我想想其中有多少——您如何看待第一季中國汽車產量?您能否提醒我目前森薩塔在中國每輛車的平均含量是多少?

  • Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

    Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

  • Sure. So yes, a very large portion of the decline of 6% is related to the impact in the first quarter. Although there is a slight decline expectation in our forecast for China, but the biggest component of that is related to the virus, very fluid situation. We'll come back to that, I think, in terms of providing a little bit more color on it. So that's the trend that we see there.

    當然。所以,是的,6% 的下降很大一部分與第一季的影響有關。雖然我們對中國的預測略有下降,但其中最大的部分與病毒有關,情況非常不穩定。我想,我們會回到這個主題,為它提供更多的色彩。這就是我們看到的趨勢。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Amit Daryanani of Evercore.

    下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Amit Daryanani。

  • Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst

    Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst

  • I guess, first of all, best of luck, Martha, it's been a pleasure working with you. And congrats, Jeff, on the new role. Yes, I guess maybe to start off on the -- the 2 growth initiatives that you guys have been talking about, Smart & Connected and Electrification. Is there a way to think about how much are the investments you're making from a dollar terms in 2020 for those 2 initiatives? And when do you think revenues will start to accrue or show up on your P&L from these investments?

    我想,首先,祝你好運,瑪莎,很高興與你合作。恭喜傑夫擔任新角色。是的,我想也許可以從你們一直在談論的兩項成長計畫開始:智慧互聯和電氣化。有沒有辦法算一下 2020 年您為這兩項計畫進行的投資金額(以美元計算)是多少?您認為這些投資的收入何時會開始累積或計入您的損益表?

  • Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

    Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

  • Yes. So when you compare '19 to '20, there's about a $20 million incremental investment in Smart & Connected. Some of that is reallocation within other investments, but net $10 million to $15 million incremental R&D spend associated with growth opportunities that's baked into 2020. But there is some reallocation as well. So we have been shifting over time our investments, our long-term investments associated with growth to megatrend. And year-over-year, there's about a $20 million incremental spend on that side.

    是的。因此,當您比較 19 世紀和 20 世紀時,智慧與互聯的增量投資約為 2000 萬美元。其中一些是在其他投資中的重新分配,但與 2020 年成長機會相關的淨增量研發支出為 1,000 萬至 1,500 萬美元。但也有一些重新分配。因此,隨著時間的推移,我們一直在將我們的投資、與成長相關的長期投資轉向大趨勢。與去年同期相比,這方面的增量支出約為 2,000 萬美元。

  • In terms of when we will start to see impact, we see some impact already. So we have some revenue in our 2020 plan that relates to some of the megatrend-related areas. But I think it's also important to note that a large portion of the revenue that we are experiencing today will apply in the future as well. So it's not a shift completely from one platform to another. There are elements of our product categories that will continue to have a role going forward even as those megatrends get implemented more broadly in the end markets that we serve.

    就我們何時開始看到影響而言,我們已經看到了一些影響。因此,我們的 2020 年計劃中有一些收入與一些大趨勢相關領域有關。但我認為同樣重要的是要注意,我們今天所經歷的收入的很大一部分也將適用於未來。因此,這並不是完全從一個平台到另一個平台的轉變。即使這些大趨勢在我們服務的終端市場中得到更廣泛的實施,我們產品類別中的某些元素仍將繼續發揮作用。

  • Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst

    Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst

  • Got it. If I could just follow up on China with the health concern. I heard the numbers you guys have just $40 million in revenues, $20 million in operating income impact from Q1. I'm hoping if you could just talk a little bit more on what impact it's having on your supply chain at this point. And do you see that being an issue in terms of your ability to ship products globally to meet demand trends beyond just China?

    知道了。如果我能跟進中國的健康問題就好了。我聽說你們的收入只有 4000 萬美元,第一季的營業收入影響為 2000 萬美元。我希望您能多談談它目前對您的供應鏈的影響。您是否認為這對於您向全球運送產品以滿足中國以外的需求趨勢的能力而言是一個問題?

  • Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

    Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

  • Yes. So I appreciate the comment. Let me provide a little bit more context associated with the virus and what we're seeing. So I think everyone knows that we have 2 manufacturing plants based in China. We also have a business and engineering center based in China. So we're getting firsthand information regarding what's going on, on the ground. And we're doing everything we possibly can to make sure that we protect our people and we serve our customers. And we're having constant dialogue with both to make sure that we're doing what we need to as well as with the local governments to make sure that we're complying with the mandates that they've put in place. Based upon those, that's how we came up with the estimate. We're also speaking with our supply chain to make sure that our suppliers more deep in the supply chain are ready to respond as this recurs.

    是的。所以我很欣賞你的評論。讓我提供更多與病毒相關的背景資訊以及我們所看到的情況。所以我想大家都知道我們在中國有兩個製造工廠。我們也在中國設有業務和工程中心。因此,我們正在獲取有關實地情況的第一手資訊。我們正在盡一切努力確保我們保護我們的員工並為我們的客戶提供服務。我們不斷與雙方進行對話,以確保我們正在做我們需要做的事情,並與地方政府進行持續對話,以確保我們遵守他們所製定的任務。基於這些,我們就是這樣得出估算的。我們也正在與我們的供應鏈進行溝通,以確保供應鏈更深處的供應商準備好在這種情況再次發生時做出反應。

  • And we're examining the inventory levels that our suppliers have, we have, our customers have to make sure that we can have a certain continuity of supply. Having said all that, it is a very fluid situation. And we're watching day-to-day how demand unfolds and also the impact that it has overall on our supply chain. But it's an active dialogue. Our best estimate at this point is the $40 million of revenue and $20 million of profit. Largely, the profit drop-through is more significant than you would expect because the way that the government implemented the quarantines is to extend the holiday. So there was an obligation during some portion of that time to continue to pay our employees, which is also the right thing to do for them, given that -- the situation they're in. And so that's more color that we have, and we'll continue to monitor the situation very closely.

    我們正在檢查我們的供應商、我們的客戶的庫存水平,以確保我們能夠有一定的供應連續性。話雖如此,這是一個非常不穩定的情況。我們每天都在關注需求的發展以及它對我們供應鏈的整體影響。但這是一次積極的對話。目前我們最好的估計是 4000 萬美元的收入和 2000 萬美元的利潤。在很大程度上,利潤下降比您預期的要嚴重,因為政府實施隔離的方式是延長假期。因此,在這段時間內,我們有義務繼續向我們的員工支付工資,考慮到他們所處的情況,這對他們來說也是正確的事情。因此,我們擁有更多的色彩,我們將繼續密切監視局勢。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from David Kelley of Jefferies.

    下一個問題來自傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的大衛凱利 (David Kelley)。

  • David Lee Kelley - Equity Analyst

    David Lee Kelley - Equity Analyst

  • And I'd also like to convey my congrats to Martha and Jeff as well. Just following up on that coronavirus commentary. I guess could you provide some color on how we should think about the actual individual end market impacts? Is it mostly automotive? And where else do you see the flow-through as well?

    我也想向瑪莎和傑夫表示祝賀。只是跟進有關冠狀病毒的評論。我想您能否提供一些關於我們應該如何考慮實際的個人終端市場影響的資訊?主要是汽車嗎?您還可以在哪裡看到流量?

  • Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

    Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

  • Yes. So we have a broader business obviously in China outside of automotive. And it's pretty widespread in terms of the impact across all of those end markets that we serve. So when you think about the $40 million impact in Q1, that represents about 4.5% of our decline in revenue that we've guided to, a decline in overall market. And it's pretty consistent across each of the end markets, automotive, industrial, HVOR. Because candidly, all of the customers that we serve in that region are impacted in the same way.

    是的。因此,除了汽車之外,我們在中國顯然還有更廣泛的業務。就我們所服務的所有終端市場的影響而言,它的影響相當廣泛。因此,當你考慮第一季 4000 萬美元的影響時,這相當於我們指導的收入下降的 4.5% 左右,即整個市場的下降。而且它在汽車、工業、HVOR 等各個終端市場上都非常一致。因為坦白說,我們在該地區服務的所有客戶都受到同樣的影響。

  • The interesting question will be on the rebound side of this, we're not expecting that there will be a recovery of this $40 million loss. But we'll watch closely because I think on the recovery side, you might see a different outcome across those end markets going forward, which we'll update when we have more data on.

    有趣的問題在於反彈方面,我們預計這 4000 萬美元的損失不會被挽回。但我們將密切關注,因為我認為在復甦方面,未來這些終端市場可能會出現不同的結果,當我們獲得更多數據時,我們將更新這些結果。

  • Martha N. Sullivan - CEO & Executive Director

    Martha N. Sullivan - CEO & Executive Director

  • And I got one other comment, just if you look at our exposures in China, about 2/3 or 70% of our business is auto- or truck-related. And our -- the impact here is roughly aligned to our exposure in China in those end markets.

    我還得到了另一條評論,如果你看看我們在中國的業務,你會發現我們大約 2/3 或 70% 的業務與汽車或卡車有關。我們的影響與我們在中國這些終端市場的影響大致一致。

  • David Lee Kelley - Equity Analyst

    David Lee Kelley - Equity Analyst

  • Okay, great. And a follow-up. I guess, how are you thinking about the timing of your customers returning to production and how that flows through to $40 million? We've heard from others and certainly seen the headlines around some sort of mid-February time frame. Is that in line with your thinking? Or are you trying to take a more cautious approach? And again, recognizing this is a very fluid situation and hard to pinpoint at this point.

    好的,太好了。以及後續行動。我想,您如何考慮客戶恢復生產的時間以及如何籌集 4000 萬美元?我們從其他人那裡聽說過,當然也看到二月中旬的頭條新聞。這符合你的想法嗎?還是你想採取更謹慎的態度?再次強調,這是一個非常不穩定的情況,目前很難確定。

  • Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

    Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

  • Yes. So the government is lifting quarantines in a different way across different provinces. I can speak to the specifics that we see. It's hard to really understand how that would impact others in the supply chain because it's very facts- and circumstances-specific. At both of our manufacturing plants, we've been given a clear sign to restart production. Now the challenge with that is when our workers come in from outside of the province, they, in some instances, need to go through a quarantine period. And there are also instances where if there are indications of the virus in that area, not in our plant, but in that area, then we might be asked to put a halt. And so for instance, on Monday, when we restarted our Baoying, China location, there was an instance of a virus outside of the plant in the area that the government asked us to postpone the rest of the day. So our plan is to get back to close to full production by the end of the 17th so that gives us a little bit of leeway. And we'll again continue to monitor the situation very closely here.

    是的。因此,政府正在不同省份以不同的方式取消隔離。我可以談談我們看到的具體情況。很難真正理解這將如何影響供應鏈中的其他人,因為這是非常具體的事實和情況。在我們的兩個製造工廠,我們都收到了重新啟動生產的明確標誌。現在的挑戰是,當我們的工人從省外進來時,他們在某些情況下需要經歷隔離期。在某些情況下,如果該地區(不是我們工廠,而是那個地區)有病毒跡象,那麼我們可能會被要求暫停。例如,週一,當我們重新啟動中國寶應工廠時,該地區工廠外出現了病毒,政府要求我們推遲當天剩餘的時間。所以我們的計劃是在 17 月底之前恢復接近全面生產,這樣我們就有一點迴旋餘地。我們將再次繼續密切關注這裡的局勢。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Wamsi Mohan of Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

    下一個問題來自美銀美林的瓦姆西·莫漢 (Wamsi Mohan)。

  • Wamsi Mohan - Director

    Wamsi Mohan - Director

  • Congrats to Martha and Jeff as well. Can you maybe address the fact that if you take out the $40 million impact from coronavirus, you're still guiding 1Q somewhat subseasonal at roughly flat versus up? So can you talk about some of the factors that are driving that? And how should we think about the seasonality? If, let's say, you get back to full production, as you said, Jeff, after -- on the 17th or so, how should we think about the sequential projections from there forward as you go through the course of the year? Obviously, it's starting from a very depressed 1Q level.

    也恭喜瑪莎和傑夫。您能否解決這樣一個事實:如果您剔除冠狀病毒帶來的 4000 萬美元的影響,您仍將第一季的預期視為次季節的,大致持平而不是上漲?那麼您能談談推動這一趨勢的一些因素嗎?我們該如何看待季節性?如果,比如說,正如傑夫所說,你在 17 號左右恢復全面生產,那麼我們應該如何考慮從那時起在這一年中的順序預測?顯然,這是從非常低迷的第一季水準開始的。

  • Paul S. Vasington - CFO, CAO & Executive VP

    Paul S. Vasington - CFO, CAO & Executive VP

  • Wamsi, it's Paul. Just a couple of comments. I mean the first would be that, as you know, Q1 is always our lowest-margin quarter. It's when a lot of the new pricing kicks in at the beginning of the year. And our productivity initiatives, they accelerate over the course of the year. So this is a normal -- somewhat normal trend that we see every year. We're still -- even if you exclude the $40 million, we're still down, we're still struggling a little bit in terms of productivity with a lower volume and operating leverage. We have some timing around expenses related to compensation. So all in all, I think it's a solid quarter. It's consistent with what you've seen in the past. As volumes improve over the course of the year, our productivity will continue to improve. So I think it's similar to what our trends and patterns have been historically.

    瓦姆西,是保羅。只是幾點評論。我的意思是,第一個問題是,如您所知,第一季始終是我們利潤率最低的季度。許多新的定價都是在年初開始實施的。我們的生產力計劃在這一年中不斷加速。所以這是我們每年都會看到的正常趨勢。即使排除這 4000 萬美元,我們仍然處於下滑狀態,我們在生產力方面仍然處於困境,銷售和營運槓桿較低。我們對與補償相關的費用有一些時間安排。總而言之,我認為這是一個穩定的季度。這與你過去所看到的一致。隨著這一年產量的增加,我們的生產力將持續提高。所以我認為這與我們歷史上的趨勢和模式相似。

  • Wamsi Mohan - Director

    Wamsi Mohan - Director

  • And can you maybe also address what your expectation in 2020 for free cash flow is, I might have missed that. But can you just talk about how you're thinking about the flow-through and how much restructuring -- cash restructuring impact we should expect in 2020?

    您能否也談談您對 2020 年自由現金流的期望是什麼,我可能錯過了。但您能否談談您如何看待流動資金以及我們在 2020 年預計會產生多大的重組——現金重組影響?

  • Paul S. Vasington - CFO, CAO & Executive VP

    Paul S. Vasington - CFO, CAO & Executive VP

  • Be happy to share that -- share that range of $430 million to $470 million with a midpoint of $450 million, which is somewhat -- is in line with what we delivered this year, we delivered $458 million, it's lower given the lower profit levels with a higher CapEx in '20 versus '19. So it's largely in line. Restructuring payments will be slightly less than we saw in 2019. So that does help a bit. And we have some one-time expenditures this year that don't repeat next year. So it's consistent and in line, I think, with the level of operating profit that we're generating.

    很高興分享這一點- 分享4.3 億美元至4.7 億美元的範圍,中點為4.5 億美元,這在某種程度上- 與我們今年交付的金額一致,我們交付了4.58 億美元,考慮到利潤水平較低,這個數字較低與 19 年相比,20 年的資本支出較高。所以基本上是一致的。重組付款將略少於 2019 年。所以這確實有一點幫助。今年我們有一些一次性支出,明年不會再出現。因此,我認為,這與我們產生的營業利潤水準是一致的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) The next question comes from Dan Galves of Wolfe Research.

    (操作員說明)下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Dan Galves。

  • Daniel V. Galves - Director of Equity Research & Senior Analyst

    Daniel V. Galves - Director of Equity Research & Senior Analyst

  • In terms of the EV opportunity, our sense is that the current batch of EVs launching now aren't very optimized, partially due to not having fully optimized automotive-grade parts from the supply chain. Is that your impression as well? Do you have content on kind of some of the EVs that are launching late last year, this year? And kind of what is the sourcing environment currently in terms of pipeline of new business?

    就電動車機會而言,我們的感覺是,目前推出的這批電動車並未經過充分優化,部分原因是供應鏈中沒有完全優化的汽車級零件。你的印像也是這樣嗎?您有關於去年年底、今年推出的一些電動車的內容嗎?目前新業務的採購環境如何?

  • Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

    Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

  • So yes, we do have content on the vehicles that are being launched today. And yes, I would agree with you that as customers use new evolving technology, the R&D and product road maps that they experience vary sometimes based upon the challenges that they face as they really iron out what their vehicle architecture will look like. And I think what you mentioned in terms of the supply chain, them largely pulling on suppliers that were more typically in the industrial supply chain is accurate. The good example I would give you is that the GIGAVAC acquisition that we had primarily served that market. And we're then bringing it to automotive levels, the product quality and the manufacturing standards. So I think your observations are absolutely accurate and, I would say, were consistent with what we're experiencing.

    所以,是的,我們確實有關於今天推出的車輛的內容。是的,我同意你的觀點,隨著客戶使用不斷發展的新技術,他們所經歷的研發和產品路線圖有時會根據他們在真正確定車輛架構時所面臨的挑戰而有所不同。我認為你提到的供應鏈方面,他們主要依靠工業供應鏈中更典型的供應商,這是準確的。我想給大家舉的一個很好的例子是,我們主要服務該市場的 GIGAVAC 收購。然後我們將其提升到汽車水平、產品品質和製造標準。所以我認為你的觀察是絕對準確的,而且我想說,與我們所經歷的情況是一致的。

  • Daniel V. Galves - Director of Equity Research & Senior Analyst

    Daniel V. Galves - Director of Equity Research & Senior Analyst

  • Okay, got it. And just one housekeeping, the negative FX impact of $0.04. Is that related to the top line impact that's happening this year? Or is that more of a nonrecur of some of the hedging that benefited 2019?

    好的,明白了。僅一項內務處理,外匯負面影響為 0.04 美元。這與今年發生的頂線影響有關嗎?或者這更像是 2019 年受益的一些對沖措施的重複出現?

  • Paul S. Vasington - CFO, CAO & Executive VP

    Paul S. Vasington - CFO, CAO & Executive VP

  • It has to do with some of the hedges that are coming off. Our hedging program is consistent. We hedge out about 18 to 24 months. We try to be about 80% hedged on the major currencies, which would be the CNY, the euro, the peso and the pound. And so just a reflection of what we've hedged and where spot rates were at the end of December and the exposure that we have.

    這與一些正在脫落的樹籬有關。我們的對沖計劃是一致的。我們對沖大約 18 至 24 個月。我們嘗試對主要貨幣(人民幣、歐元、比索和英鎊)進行約 80% 的對沖。這只是我們對沖的內容、12 月底的即期匯率以及我們所擁有的風險敞口的反映。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Joe Spak of RBC Capital Markets.

    下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Joe Spak。

  • Joseph Robert Spak - Analyst

    Joseph Robert Spak - Analyst

  • I wanted to talk a little bit about some of the comments on HVOR. I think again you mentioned the potential that some programs could be pushed out a little bit. I think you mentioned that last quarter as well, even though it looks like organic growth or our outgrowth this quarter came -- became a little bit better than expected. But how does that sort of, I guess, dovetail with the 700 basis points of outperformance that you're guiding to in that segment from a cadence perspective? And also with the virus, does that not at all impact the potential outperformance? I guess is the -- does the virus really impact some of the potential outperformance and sort of further push out some of the programs?

    我想談談 HVOR 上的一些評論。我想你再次提到了一些項目可能會被推遲一點的可能性。我想你也提到了上個季度,儘管看起來有機成長或我們本季的副產品成長比預期要好一些。但我想,這與您從節奏角度指導的 700 個基點的優異表現如何吻合?對於病毒來說,這難道不會影響潛在的優異表現嗎?我想,病毒是否真的會影響一些潛在的優異表現,並進一步推出一些程式?

  • Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

    Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

  • Yes. So on the HVOR business, we've talked during 2019 about the fact that some of our customers pushed out launches, partly due to market circumstances, also partly due to readiness more broadly on the architecture and systems that they're implementing. But we also see, at the end of the day, we -- although we saw some lumpiness in terms of content by quarter within HVOR, we landed quite nicely. And over the last 2 years, we landed quite nicely. And so although market circumstances, customer readiness, other supplier readiness to launch platforms could have quarter-to-quarter impacts on overall content growth, we continue to have very high confidence in the long-term content growth. In terms of the virus impact, it's a broader impact. It's a demand. And when there's lower demand, there's lower content clearly. But we don't expect that, that would have a lasting impact in terms of how customers think about new product launches.

    是的。因此,在HVOR 業務方面,我們在2019 年談到了這樣一個事實,即我們的一些客戶推遲了發布,部分原因是市場環境,部分原因是他們正在實施的架構和系統已經做好了更廣泛的準備。但我們也看到,歸根結底,我們——儘管我們看到 HVOR 的季度內容有些混亂,但我們的進展相當不錯。在過去的兩年裡,我們的進展非常順利。因此,儘管市場環境、客戶準備、其他供應商推出平台的準備情況可能會對整體內容成長產生季度影響,但我們仍然對長期內容成長抱有很高的信心。就病毒影響而言,這是更廣泛的影響。這是一個要求。當需求降低時,內容顯然也會減少。但我們預計這不會對客戶對新產品發布的看法產生持久影響。

  • Joseph Robert Spak - Analyst

    Joseph Robert Spak - Analyst

  • Okay. And then just -- I appreciate your comments on sort of the migration impact within China, I think that's been a little bit underreported. I guess as you're starting to -- maybe it's still too early for this, but as you're starting to see some employees come back, are you noticing any hesitance of workers to come back? And like could there be a potential for a little bit of ramp-up or start-up disruption as you might have to also do some new hiring?

    好的。然後,我感謝您對中國境內移民影響的評論,我認為這有點被低估了。我想,當你開始這樣做時——也許現在還為時過早,但當你開始看到一些員工回來時,你是否注意到工人對回來有任何猶豫?就像您可能還需要招募一些新員工一樣,是否有可能出現一些加速或啟動中斷的情況?

  • Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

    Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

  • No, on the employee desire to come back to work part. And we are doing other activities associated with providing masks and where they gather to eat to make sure that we're taking the necessary precautions to make them feel comfortable with the working environment. Obviously, testing temperatures. We have doctors on staff at our plants to make sure that we're monitoring that situation, a variety of other logistics things associated with wiping down flat surfaces and so forth. So we're doing everything to make sure that our employees, as they come back, feel comfortable with the working environment that they're coming back to.

    不,取決於員工重返工作崗位的願望。我們正在進行與提供口罩以及他們聚集吃飯的地方相關的其他活動,以確保我們採取必要的預防措施,讓他們對工作環境感到舒適。顯然,測試溫度。我們的工廠配備了醫生,以確保我們正在監控這種情況以及與擦拭平坦表面等相關的各種其他物流事宜。因此,我們正在盡一切努力確保我們的員工在回來後對他們回來的工作環境感到舒適。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Shawn Harrison of Longbow Research.

    下一個問題來自長弓研究中心的肖恩哈里森。

  • Shawn Matthew Harrison - Senior Research Analyst

    Shawn Matthew Harrison - Senior Research Analyst

  • Just following up on the China virus topic. I know most -- kind of the automotive supply chain is localized to a region. But are you seeing any potential risk, either into Europe or other regions, of another supplier maybe not being able to get product to either the integrator or the auto OEM themselves and that potentially impacting demand for you in the first quarter or the first half of the year?

    只是跟進中國病毒話題。我知道的最多的是汽車供應鏈是本地化的。但是,您是否看到任何潛在風險,無論是在歐洲還是其他地區,其他供應商可能無法將產品提供給整合商或汽車原始設備製造商本身,這可能會影響您在第一季或上半年的需求年份?

  • Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

    Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

  • So the $40 million that we've quoted is China region-specific. As we examine the potential impact to our customers in Europe and North America, we do not see any impact on that right now. I would also mention that over the last several years, we, as a company, have worked to make sure that we have regionalized manufacturing to minimize that impact. But you're absolutely right that it is a very complex supply chain and there are subsuppliers and others deeper in the supply chain that could have an impact that we're monitoring. In terms of our view, we don't feel as though there's any incremental impact. The question that you're bringing up is a good one, which is will other suppliers in the supply chain impact that more broadly? And we're not seeing that right now. But again, we'll continue to monitor it very closely.

    因此,我們報價的 4000 萬美元是針對中國地區的。當我們研究對歐洲和北美客戶的潛在影響時,我們目前沒有看到任何影響。我還要提到的是,在過去的幾年裡,我們作為一家公司,一直努力確保我們的製造區域化,以盡量減少這種影響。但你說得完全正確,這是一個非常複雜的供應鏈,供應鏈中存在次級供應商和其他更深層的供應商,可能會產生我們正在監控的影響。就我們的觀點而言,我們並不認為有任何增量影響。您提出的問題很好,即供應鏈中的其他供應商是否會產生更廣泛的影響?我們現在還沒有看到這一點。但同樣,我們將繼續密切監視它。

  • Shawn Matthew Harrison - Senior Research Analyst

    Shawn Matthew Harrison - Senior Research Analyst

  • Okay. And then as a brief follow-up, Jeff, you mentioned, I think, program wins were down $100-and-some million over the average -- relative to the average of the past 2 years. What gives you confidence in terms of maybe the pushout that you saw in 2019 that it accelerates in 2020 and that it maybe doesn't get pushed again a little bit?

    好的。然後,作為一個簡短的後續行動,傑夫,你提到,我認為,相對於過去兩年的平均水平,項目的勝利比平均水平下降了 100 美元,甚至幾百萬美元。是什麼讓您對 2019 年看到的推動力在 2020 年加速並且可能不會再次受到推動有信心?

  • Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

    Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

  • Yes. So 2 things. The first would be if you look at the average new business win over the last 5 years, it's $440 million. So although in individual years, we might see higher amounts of opportunities and wins due to just timing of when customers choose to launch new items. But given it's a long-cycle business, that long-term average, I think, is the more meaningful number in terms of what we should watch, and also the pipeline. So when we look at the pipeline of opportunity that we have now versus what we had at the beginning of 2019, it's a bigger pipeline. And nothing replaces the personal contact with customers to make sure we understand where they are in their decision-making process. And all of those things give us comfort in the fact that we will see a higher NBO award in 2020 than we did in 2019.

    是的。所以有兩件事。第一個是,如果你看看過去 5 年平均贏得的新業務,它是 4.4 億美元。因此,儘管在個別年份,由於客戶選擇推出新產品的時間,我們可能會看到更多的機會和勝利。但考慮到這是一個長週期的業務,我認為,就我們應該關注的內容以及管道而言,長期平均值是更有意義的數字。因此,當我們查看現在的機會管道與 2019 年初的機會管道時,會發現這是一個更大的機會管道。沒有什麼可以取代與客戶的個人接觸,以確保我們了解他們在決策過程中所處的階段。所有這些讓我們感到欣慰的是,2020 年我們將看到比 2019 年更高的 NBO 獎項。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Brian Johnson of Barclays.

    下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的布萊恩·約翰遜。

  • Brian Arthur Johnson - MD & Senior Equity Analyst

    Brian Arthur Johnson - MD & Senior Equity Analyst

  • Just want to talk a bit about the margin guide for 2020. If you kind of strip out the virus impact, looks like slightly growing top line but flattish margins. Can you kind of give us some color on the puts and takes: a, is that directionally right; and b, the puts and takes around the margin?

    只是想談談 2020 年的保證金指南。如果剔除病毒的影響,看起來收入略有成長,但利潤率持平。您能否給我們一些關於看跌期權和看跌期權的信息:a,方向正確嗎? b,圍繞保證金的看跌期權和持倉?

  • Paul S. Vasington - CFO, CAO & Executive VP

    Paul S. Vasington - CFO, CAO & Executive VP

  • Sure. The -- if you back out the $40 million, we're in a 1%, 1.5% organic growth and in earnings we're operating profit growth at a similar level. So what's happening there, we continue to benefit from the repositioning actions that we took. But as Jeff mentioned, we have a significant increase in investment around megatrends. Those 2 are somewhat offsetting. And then we look at compensation costs, investing in the core business for sustainable long-term growth. Those things are being funded by continued productivity gains and net productivity gains in the P&L. So net-net, if you back out the virus impact, it's about flat earnings, earnings growth in line with revenue growth on an organic basis. Currency is a little bit of a headwind, like we noted, about $0.04.

    當然。如果你取消 4,000 萬美元,我們的有機成長為 1%、1.5%,而在獲利方面,我們的營業利潤成長也處於類似水準。因此,我們繼續從我們採取的重新定位行動中受益。但正如傑夫所提到的,我們圍繞大趨勢的投資大幅增加。這兩者有些抵消。然後我們會考慮薪酬成本,投資核心業務以實現可持續的長期成長。這些事情的資金來源是持續的生產力提高和損益表中的淨生產力提高。因此,如果你排除病毒的影響,那就是收益持平,收益成長與有機收入成長一致。正如我們所指出的,貨幣匯率有一點阻力,約為 0.04 美元。

  • Brian Arthur Johnson - MD & Senior Equity Analyst

    Brian Arthur Johnson - MD & Senior Equity Analyst

  • Okay. So not really any margin expansion with those puts and takes?

    好的。那麼這些看跌期權和看跌期權實際上並沒有帶來任何利潤擴張嗎?

  • Paul S. Vasington - CFO, CAO & Executive VP

    Paul S. Vasington - CFO, CAO & Executive VP

  • No. When you back out the impact, it's about flattish to slightly down on operating margins year-over-year.

    不。當你排除影響時,營業利潤率較去年同期持平或略有下降。

  • Brian Arthur Johnson - MD & Senior Equity Analyst

    Brian Arthur Johnson - MD & Senior Equity Analyst

  • I've got a bunch of strategic questions. We'll get those in Florida, I look forward to seeing you, Jeff. We'll miss you, Martha, but congrats. Just one quick, and hate to just keep beating the virus, but with about sort of 5, mid-5s, 5.4-ish million of production expected in China this quarter, can you give us a sense of, just so we can track it every week or so, the production assumption embedded in your virus guide?

    我有很多戰略問題。我們會在佛羅裡達得到這些,我期待見到你,傑夫。我們會想念你的,瑪莎,但恭喜你。快說一句,我不想​​繼續對抗病毒,但預計本季度中國的產量約為 5、5 到 5 億左右、540 萬左右,您能否讓我們了解一下,以便我們可以跟踪它大約每週,病毒指南中嵌入的生產假設是什麼?

  • Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

    Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

  • Yes. So we believe there's about 450,000 to 500,000 units per week of production. So given the fact that we're down 3 -- call it, 3 weeks, you can -- that math is -- translate to 1.5 million units would be around the estimate.

    是的。因此我們相信每週的產量約為 450,000 至 500,000 件。因此,考慮到我們下降了 3 週(可以說是 3 週),你可以將數學計算為 150 萬個單位,大約是在估計值左右。

  • Paul S. Vasington - CFO, CAO & Executive VP

    Paul S. Vasington - CFO, CAO & Executive VP

  • [Just the incremental] impact on HVOR and industrial businesses that add to that.

    [只是增量]對 HVOR 和工業企業的影響。

  • Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

    Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

  • Right.

    正確的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Christopher Glynn of Oppenheimer.

    下一個問題來自奧本海默的克里斯托弗·格林。

  • Christopher D. Glynn - MD and Senior Analyst

    Christopher D. Glynn - MD and Senior Analyst

  • Congrats to Martha and Jeff on the transitions. Had a question about the vehicle area network topics on HVOR. You've been right down the middle on your content growth targets for the last couple of years. Is this something that you'd see improving on that? Or is it more sustaining at a year or 2 out?

    恭喜瑪莎和傑夫的轉變。對 HVOR 上的車輛區域網路主題有疑問。過去幾年,您的內容成長目標一直處於中間位置。您認為這方面有改進嗎?或者在一兩年後它會更持久嗎?

  • Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

    Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

  • Yes. It's -- the goal would be to have it improve. And the interesting part that I think you and others have caught on is that it's -- we're serving a different market segment, right? So it's an aftermarket, which might have shorter periods or will have shorter periods in terms of the NBO pipeline. So it would be incremental, our megatrend investments broadly when you think of some of these things that are, if you will, beyond the center component, will naturally have larger ASPs and create more content growth for us as a company. And as you know, there are very large addressable markets in terms of the opportunity that we're pursuing.

    是的。我們的目標是改進它。我認為您和其他人已經意識到的有趣的部分是——我們正在服務不同的細分市場,對嗎?所以這是一個售後市場,其周期可能較短,或者就 NBO 管道而言週期較短。因此,當你想到其中一些東西時,如果你願意的話,除了中心組件之外,這將是漸進式的,我們的大趨勢投資,自然會擁有更大的平均售價,並為我們作為一家公司創造更多的內容成長。如您所知,就我們正在尋求的機會而言,有非常大的潛在市場。

  • Christopher D. Glynn - MD and Senior Analyst

    Christopher D. Glynn - MD and Senior Analyst

  • And my follow-up is on your new business wins as, in particular, with China content and with light vehicle being great and EVs taking off, is this still primarily a single-sourced business? Any particular variations as it pertains to EV or China, for instance?

    我的後續行動是關於您的新業務的勝利,特別是隨著中國內容和輕型汽車的出色發展以及電動車的起飛,這仍然主要是單一來源的業務嗎?例如,與電動車或中國有關的任何具體變化?

  • Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

    Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

  • Yes. No major changes in terms of how our customers are thinking about their sourcing strategies. The fact that we focus on those mission-critical, hard-to-do applications requires a lot of engineering effort on the part of our customers. And so the dynamics associated with that and the need for us to make sure that we can deliver for them when they need it is critically important to them in terms of selecting their suppliers.

    是的。我們的客戶對採購策略的看法沒有重大變化。事實上,我們專注於那些關鍵任務、難以完成的應用程序,這需要我們的客戶付出大量的工程努力。因此,與此相關的動態以及我們需要確保我們能夠在他們需要時為他們提供服務,對於他們選擇供應商至關重要。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Deepa Raghavan of Wells Fargo.

    下一個問題來自富國銀行的迪帕·拉加萬 (Deepa Raghavan)。

  • Deepa Bhargavi Narasimhapuram Raghavan - Associate Analyst

    Deepa Bhargavi Narasimhapuram Raghavan - Associate Analyst

  • Let me also echo my congratulations to both Martha and Jeff. A couple of questions from me. First one, how are you thinking about the full year organic decline that you guided a split between Performance Sensing and Sensing Solutions, given that you exited Sensing Solutions on a positive organic growth in Q4?

    讓我也向瑪莎和傑夫表示祝賀。我有幾個問題。首先,考慮到您在第四季度因積極的有機增長而退出了感測解決方案,您如何看待您指導性能感測和感測解決方案之間的分割導致的全年有機下降?

  • Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

    Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

  • So for the full year, if you look at the -- our guide is essentially flat around revenue. We would expect our Performance Sensing business to be down, largely driven by the HVOR market. We're expecting the automotive business to be slightly better than it was last year. And the Performance Sensing business will be up. So really, the impact, aside from the virus obviously, the impact of the virus is the HVOR business in terms of year-over-year decline versus some improvement.

    因此,對於全年來說,如果你看一下——我們的指南基本上與收入持平。我們預計我們的性能感測業務將會下降,這主要是由 HVOR 市場推動的。我們預計汽車業務將略好於去年。性能感測業務將會成長。事實上,除了病毒之外,病毒的影響還在於 HVOR 業務的同比下降與有所改善。

  • Paul S. Vasington - CFO, CAO & Executive VP

    Paul S. Vasington - CFO, CAO & Executive VP

  • Yes. So Sensing Solutions -- I think it means Sensing Solutions, and yes, that's right -- [stronger] at aerospace business, that continues to show really strong content growth into '20.

    是的。因此,感測解決方案——我認為這意味著感測解決方案,是的,這是正確的——在航空航天業務中[更強],在 20 世紀繼續顯示出真正強勁的內容增長。

  • Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

    Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

  • Right.

    正確的。

  • Deepa Bhargavi Narasimhapuram Raghavan - Associate Analyst

    Deepa Bhargavi Narasimhapuram Raghavan - Associate Analyst

  • Got it. And that's why the organic growth in Sensing Solutions is positive, but Performance Sensing is impacted by the virus and -- generally?

    知道了。這就是為什麼感測解決方案的有機成長是正面的,但效能傳感受到病毒的影響——一般來說?

  • Paul S. Vasington - CFO, CAO & Executive VP

    Paul S. Vasington - CFO, CAO & Executive VP

  • Yes. Virus at the HVOR.

    是的。HVOR 出現病毒。

  • Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

    Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

  • Yes. That's right.

    是的。這是正確的。

  • Deepa Bhargavi Narasimhapuram Raghavan - Associate Analyst

    Deepa Bhargavi Narasimhapuram Raghavan - Associate Analyst

  • Yes, got it. My follow-up is on the virus, sorry about that. I know that you're getting a lot of questions. But why do you think the lost revenues from the virus may not be recouped? Is that your -- is that your worst-case scenario? Just curious why you think this is lost demand? And on the flip side, how are you situated from a production capacity or utilization perspective if demand were to come back? I mean what are some of the governing factors there?

    是的,明白了。我的後續行動是關於病毒的,對此感到抱歉。我知道您有很多問題。但您認為為什麼病毒造成的收入損失可能無法彌補?這是你最糟糕的情況嗎?只是好奇為什麼你認為這是需求的喪失?另一方面,如果需求回升,從產能或利用率的角度來看,您的處境如何?我的意思是那裡有哪些控制因素?

  • Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

    Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

  • Yes. So I wouldn't say it's our worst-case scenario. The worst-case scenario is that there is continued disruption here, right? So I think it's right down the middle of the road in terms of the impact. It's a great question around whether or not it will snap back. And it really does, in my view, depend on a couple of things. The consumer sentiment, which may be driven by government in terms of other incentives, we've experienced in the past certainly the government in China can implement very quickly incentives to create incremental demand. And so that's an option that may exist that could change this outcome.

    是的。所以我不會說這是我們最壞的情況。最壞的情況是這裡會出現持續的混亂,對嗎?所以我認為就影響而言,它處於中間位置。它是否會反彈是一個很大的問題。在我看來,這確實取決於幾件事。消費者信心可能是由政府透過其他激勵措施推動的,我們過去經歷過,當然中國政府可以非常迅速地實施激勵措施來創造增量需求。因此,這是一個可能存在的選項,可以改變這個結果。

  • And the other is around the capacity. Now you're bringing up a great one. And so it's capacity with us and also deeper in the supply chain and with our customers in terms of them being able to catch up. We'd like to think that we can always find a way to make sure that we can deliver for incremental demand. But there are areas of capacity within our business where we are running pretty much at close to full capacity within 5% or so and so there could be minimal impact. But our goal would be, if demand materializes, to make sure that we can deliver on it.

    另一個是容量。現在你正在培養一個偉大的人。因此,我們以及供應鏈更深層的能力以及我們的客戶能夠趕上的能力。我們認為我們總是能找到一種方法來確保我們能夠滿足增量需求。但在我們業務的某些產能領域,我們幾乎接近滿載運行,誤差在 5% 左右,因此影響可能很小。但我們的目標是,如果需求實現,我們能夠實現它。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Joe Giordano of Cowen.

    下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Joe Giordano。

  • Joseph Craig Giordano - MD of Industrials, Automation and Robotics

    Joseph Craig Giordano - MD of Industrials, Automation and Robotics

  • Just starting on Sensing Solutions, some other players in China industrial have talked about like a pull-forward of demand into the fourth quarter, given the timing of Lunar New Year and kind of stocking ahead of that. So did you see -- I know you said that Sensing Solutions did better than you thought on industrial. I was wondering if that has anything to do with it there.

    剛從感測解決方案開始,中國工業界的其他一些參與者就談到了將需求提前到第四季度,因為農曆新年的時間和提前的庫存。你看到了嗎——我知道你說過感測解決方案在工業領域的表現比你想像的還要好。我想知道這是否與那裡有什麼關係。

  • Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

    Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

  • It does have some of the impact when you peel back the -- what we believe to be the market impact in the industrial business. In the fourth quarter, it was about -- it was down about 5%. We are expecting that to improve into 2020. But it's the combination of market decline and also inventory takeout. It's a very fragmented, complicated supply chain on the industrial side. And we saw a fair amount of inventory takeout in the supply chain, that is the channel inventory takeout, which ultimately impacted our demand for our products. So that's separate from raw demand from customers. So we saw more of an impact in 2019 than pure demand reduction because of that channel inventory takeout.

    當你剝離我們認為對工業業務的市場影響時,它確實會產生一些影響。第四季度,下降了約 5%。我們預計這種情況到 2020 年將會有所改善。但這是市場下跌和庫存減少的結合。從工業方面來說,這是一個非常分散、複雜的供應鏈。我們看到供應鏈中有相當多的庫存外賣,也就是通路庫存外賣,這最終影響了我們對產品的需求。因此,這與客戶的原始需求是分開的。因此,由於通路庫存的減少,我們在 2019 年看到的影響不僅僅是純粹的需求減少。

  • Joseph Craig Giordano - MD of Industrials, Automation and Robotics

    Joseph Craig Giordano - MD of Industrials, Automation and Robotics

  • Yes. I guess I was referring to -- some were talking about like a positive impact just in fourth quarter from China specifically ahead of new year, something like. So there was a little bit of a surge in demand from kind of stocking ahead of that, outside of the general destocking that happened all throughout 2019.

    是的。我想我指的是──有些人在談論中國在第四季產生的正面影響,特別是在新年之前,之類的。因此,除了 2019 年全年發生的普遍去庫存之外,在此之前的庫存需求略有增加。

  • Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

    Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

  • Yes. I mean I think that -- yes, I think that would be a normal market cycle for us. I don't think that we saw anything that was different than what we would normally see in terms of our quarterly trend in the businesses.

    是的。我的意思是,我認為——是的,我認為這對我們來說是一個正常的市場週期。我認為我們沒有看到任何與我們通常看到的業務季度趨勢不同的東西。

  • Joseph Craig Giordano - MD of Industrials, Automation and Robotics

    Joseph Craig Giordano - MD of Industrials, Automation and Robotics

  • Okay. That's what I was getting to. Okay, perfect. And then Paul, just on the tax rate guidance for next year, I guess the ramp, a little bit quicker than we probably -- than most probably anticipated. How do you kind of see that progression over the next couple of years? I know you generally talked about like 50 bps a year, now this is 100 in '18. So how quickly should we see that kind of increase over the next few? And do you have kind of like an end game number that we should think about?

    好的。這就是我要做的事。好的,完美。然後保羅,就明年的稅率指引而言,我猜增幅比我們可能的要快一點——比大多數人預期的要快一點。您如何看待未來幾年的進展?我知道你通常談到每年 50 個基點,現在是 18 年的 100 個基點。那麼,在接下來的幾年裡,我們應該要多快才能看到這種成長呢?您是否有類似的最終遊戲數字值得我們考慮?

  • Paul S. Vasington - CFO, CAO & Executive VP

    Paul S. Vasington - CFO, CAO & Executive VP

  • So if we go back to 2017 Investor Day, we did talk around -- about 50 basis points a year for a few years. We've done better than that. Some of that's around the mix of where the profits are generated and the tax rates in those different jurisdictions. So we are a little bit ahead of where we thought we were going to be. We've had some tax benefits that naturally expired in 2019 that won't benefit '20 so that's driving some of the increase. But over the 3-year period, we're about where we thought we would be. It's just that we did better in the first 2 and now we're giving a little bit of that back in 2020.

    因此,如果我們回到 2017 年投資者日,我們確實討論過——幾年來每年大約 50 個基點。我們已經做得比那更好了。其中一些涉及利潤產生地和不同司法管轄區的稅率。所以我們比我們想像的要領先一些。我們有一些稅收優惠,這些優惠將於 2019 年自然到期,但不會讓 20 世紀受益,因此這推動了部分成長。但在三年的時間裡,我們已經達到了我們預期的水平。只是我們在前 2 個月做得更好,現在我們將在 2020 年做出一些貢獻。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Steven Fox of Cross Research.

    下一個問題來自 Cross Research 的 Steven Fox。

  • Steven Bryant Fox - MD

    Steven Bryant Fox - MD

  • Just on the HVOR markets, obviously a lot of those end markets are in cyclical decline. I was wondering if you can sort of give us a sense of where you think construction versus ag versus commercial vehicles are at this point in that cycle.

    僅就 HVOR 市場而言,顯然許多終端市場都處於週期性下滑。我想知道您是否可以讓我們了解您認為建築車輛、農業車輛和商用車輛在該週期的當前階段處於什麼位置。

  • And secondly, when you look at your growth over market, it was -- in those markets, it was substantially above the 2-year average. I was wondering what you would attribute that to, given that -- the cyclical pressures I just mentioned.

    其次,當你觀察市場的成長時,你會發現,在這些市場中,它遠高於兩年平均。鑑於我剛才提到的周期性壓力,我想知道您會將其歸因於什麼。

  • Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

    Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

  • Yes. So we started seeing a decline. We had -- let me start with we had forecasted a decline in the latter part of 2019 in those markets. We saw that come a little bit earlier. Starting really in the tail end of the second quarter of 2019, we started to see the decline in some of those end markets. And it really accelerated as we got to the end of the year. And so we quoted some of the stats on market in the fourth quarter of 2019, on-road truck down 14%, Europe -- North America, Europe, down almost 14% as well, ag down 10%. And so across that overall market, down 14%.

    是的。所以我們開始看到下降。首先,我們預測這些市場將在 2019 年下半年下滑。我們看到它來得更早一些。從 2019 年第二季末開始,我們開始看到其中一些終端市場出現下滑。當我們到年底時,它確實加速了。因此,我們引用了 2019 年第四季市場上的一些統計數據,公路卡車下降了 14%,歐洲——北美、歐洲也下降了近 14%,農業下降了 10%。整個市場下降了 14%。

  • So going forward, we're expecting it to be some similar trends. But overall, about 9% in the market, so less than fourth quarter but more than full year 2020. In terms of the timing on that, I think that our view is that it's a year to 18-month cycle. So we'll see more come to balance of -- at the end of 2020. But we're not forecasting that there's any big uptick in terms of that market during this year.

    因此,展望未來,我們預計會出現一些類似的趨勢。但總體而言,市佔率約為 9%,因此低於第四季度,但高於 2020 年全年。就時間安排而言,我認為我們的觀點是這是一年到 18 個月的週期。因此,到 2020 年底,我們將看到更多的情況達到平衡。但我們預計今年該市場不會大幅成長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs.

    下一個問題來自高盛的馬克·德萊尼。

  • Mark Trevor Delaney - Equity Analyst

    Mark Trevor Delaney - Equity Analyst

  • Martha, thanks for all your help and time over the years. And Jeff, best of luck in your new role. The question is about the comment, Jeff, you made in your prepared remarks about a goal of -- one of your goals as CEO of diversification by end markets. Are you referring mostly to organic growth in markets like aerospace, which I know did pretty well for the company in 2019? Or are you alluding to potential M&A, potentially CST-size or maybe even something larger in order to achieve that objective?

    瑪莎,感謝您多年來的幫助和時間。傑夫,祝你在新角色中一切順利。問題是關於傑夫,你在準備好的演講中關於目標的評論——你作為終端市場多元化執行長的目標之一。您主要指的是航空航太等市場的有機成長,我知道該市場在 2019 年對該公司表現相當不錯?或者您是在暗示潛在的併購、潛在的 CST 規模或甚至更大的規模來實現這一目標?

  • Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

    Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

  • Both. So it's nice to have an aerospace business that's growing at the rate that it is while some of our end markets are down or seeing decline. But it will also be on the M&A front to identify potential targets that would help to continue to diversify the business over the long term.

    兩個都。因此,當我們的一些終端市場正在下滑或出現衰退時,航空航太業務仍能以目前的速度成長,這是一件好事。但它也將在併購方面確定潛在目標,從長遠來看,這將有助於繼續實現業務多元化。

  • Mark Trevor Delaney - Equity Analyst

    Mark Trevor Delaney - Equity Analyst

  • Got it. And my follow-up question is around SG&A in the first quarter. I mean the company has done a very good job, especially second half '19, of managing SG&A expense. But I know typically in the first quarter, there was some step-up. Just trying to get a better sense for where to be thinking about SG&A dollars in the first quarter.

    知道了。我的後續問題是關於第一季的SG&A。我的意思是,公司在管理 SG&A 費用方面做得非常好,尤其是 19 年下半年。但我知道通常在第一季會有一些進步。只是想更了解第一季在哪些方面考慮 SG&A 美元。

  • Paul S. Vasington - CFO, CAO & Executive VP

    Paul S. Vasington - CFO, CAO & Executive VP

  • First quarter 2020, we would expect it to move up a little bit from where we exited the fourth quarter. Part of that's just normal timing of employee costs and then there's also just the timing around incentive comp.

    2020 年第一季度,我們預計它會比第四季度退出時略有上升。其中一部分只是員工成本的正常時間安排,還有激勵補償的時間安排。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from William Stein of SunTrust.

    下一個問題來自 SunTrust 的 William Stein。

  • William Stein - MD

    William Stein - MD

  • I wanted to ask a question and a follow-up about the Electrification megatrend. Over the last few quarters, I'm hoping you can help us understand how your end OEM customers' plans might have changed regarding the anticipated mix of internal combustion versus hybrid versus electric vehicle?

    我想問一個有關電氣化大趨勢的問題和後續行動。在過去的幾個季度中,我希望您能幫助我們了解您的最終 OEM 客戶的計劃在內燃機、混合動力和電動汽車的預期組合方面可能發生了怎樣的變化?

  • Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

    Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

  • Yes. So I don't think we're seeing any major shift. Every one of our customers has a pretty robust product development strategy associated with electrified platforms. But I don't think we've seen any major shift. I think what we've observed as we've been engaging with customers on this new product category for us is a couple of things. I alluded to the fact that as customers implement new emerging technologies, the product development life cycle doesn't always follow the same path as what it historically has with more mature technologies. And the second is they tend to be a little bit more lumpy as would be expected. Given that platforms will be more concentrated in an electrified environment, the opportunities tend to be a little bit more lumpy in terms of the size of the opportunities that we're pursuing.

    是的。所以我認為我們沒有看到任何重大轉變。我們的每一位客戶都有與電氣化平台相關的相當穩健的產品開發策略。但我認為我們沒有看到任何重大轉變。我認為,當我們與客戶就這個新產品類別進行接觸時,我們觀察到了以下幾點。我提到這樣一個事實:當客戶實施新興技術時,產品開發生命週期並不總是遵循與歷史上更成熟技術相同的路徑。第二個是它們往往像預期的那樣更加凹凸不平。鑑於平台將更加集中在電氣化環境中,就我們所追求的機會的規模而言,機會往往會更加不穩定。

  • William Stein - MD

    William Stein - MD

  • That's helpful. And then another thing you mentioned in the prepared remarks was a significant overlap between the 2 categories, broadly speaking, internal combustion and EV within your portfolio. That was a surprise to me. I thought most of the products that are used in internal combustion relate to that power type. Can you maybe elaborate as to what the overlap is, what types of sensors? Any details on that would be helpful.

    這很有幫助。然後,您在準備好的評論中提到的另一件事是,您的投資組合中的兩個類別(廣義而言,內燃機和電動車)之間存在顯著重疊。這讓我很驚訝。我認為大多數用於內燃的產品都與該動力類型有關。您能否詳細說明重疊是什麼,感測器類型是什麼?這方面的任何細節都會有幫助。

  • Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

    Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

  • Yes, absolutely. So braking, electronic stability control-type applications will be still applied in an electrified platform for redundancy associated with the vehicle, cabin management-type, thermal management-type applications, tire pressure monitoring. So there are a number of applications outside of the engine and transmission that we serve today that would be applicable and are being designed into those vehicles going forward. Half or better of the total portfolio ports right over to an electrified platform.

    是的,絕對是。因此,煞車、電子穩定控制類應用仍將應用於電氣化平台,以實現與車輛相關的冗餘、座艙管理類、熱管理類應用、輪胎壓力監測。因此,我們今天提供的引擎和變速箱之外的許多應用程式都適用,並且正在設計到未來的車輛中。總投資組合的一半或更多直接連接到電氣化平台。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Jim Suva of Citi.

    下一個問題來自花旗銀行的吉姆·蘇瓦。

  • Jim Suva - Director

    Jim Suva - Director

  • I just have one question. And that is regarding, you mentioned your plants you expect to be back into production February 17. And you mentioned the sales shortage or the challenges associated with that for the plant closures. We talked a lot about automotive so far. Is it fair to assume that you're also making a similar adjustment to the heavy vehicle, the construction side and all that? And do you expect that to come back kind of to the same magnitude? Or how should we think about that? Because a lot of the commentary so far was kind of on automotive.

    我只有一個問題。您提到您的工廠預計將於 2 月 17 日恢復生產。您提到了銷售短缺或與工廠關閉相關的挑戰。到目前為止我們談了很多關於汽車的話題。假設您也在對重型車輛、施工方面等進行類似的調整,是否公平?您預計這種情況會恢復到相同的程度嗎?或者說我們該如何思考這個問題?因為到目前為止,很多評論都是關於汽車的。

  • Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

    Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

  • Yes. So 2/3 of the business in China is automotive. But we would, Jim, expect a similar impact, proportionate impact to the other end markets that we serve, not just HVOR, but also the industrial markets as well. We don't have an aerospace presence in China. And so it would be those 3 end markets that would be impacted proportionately, given the shutdowns that have occurred.

    是的。所以中國2/3的業務是汽車業。但吉姆,我們預期我們服務的其他終端市場也會產生類似的、成比例的影響,不僅是 HVOR,還有工業市場。我們在中國沒有航空航太業務。因此,考慮到已經發生的停工,這三個終端市場將受到相應影響。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Craig Hettenbach of Morgan Stanley.

    下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的克雷格·赫滕巴赫。

  • Craig Matthew Hettenbach - VP

    Craig Matthew Hettenbach - VP

  • Just had a question on the strong outgrowth in China on the automotive side, just your visibility into that sustaining. And then is there anything on the competitive front in terms of how you're positioned in that region versus some of the things you're seeing kind of in Europe and North America?

    剛才有一個關於中國汽車產業強勁成長的問題,請問您對這種持續成長的可見度。那麼,與您在歐洲和北美看到的一些情況相比,您在該地區的定位如何?

  • Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

    Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

  • Yes. Great visibility into the sustaining content growth in the China market and more broadly in the other automotive markets and other end markets that we serve. The long-term nature of the business and the NBO wins and engagement with customers provides that level of visibility into the future.

    是的。深入了解中國市場以及我們服務的其他汽車市場和其他終端市場的持續內容成長。業務的長期性質和 NBO 的勝利以及與客戶的互動提供了對未來的可見性。

  • Craig Matthew Hettenbach - VP

    Craig Matthew Hettenbach - VP

  • Got it. And then just a quick follow-up on GIGAVAC. Can you kind of help frame just that -- the growth that you're seeing in that business maybe versus the overall growth for the company. And then just the commentary about kind of some special applications moving to EV, just kind of where you are in that process?

    知道了。然後是 GIGAVAC 的快速跟進。您能幫忙描述一下嗎?然後是關於一些特殊應用轉向電動車的評論,您在這個過程中處於什麼位置?

  • Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

    Jeffrey J. Cote - President & COO

  • Yes. So we're seeing strong double-digit growth in the GIGAVAC business despite the market headwinds that we're facing. So the investment case that we had laid out that we underwrote is playing out as we would expect, as we look beyond this year and into the next 5 years in terms of platform development.

    是的。因此,儘管我們面臨市場阻力,但 GIGAVAC 業務仍然實現了兩位數的強勁成長。因此,當我們展望今年以及未來 5 年的平台開發時,我們所承保的投資案例正在按我們的預期進行。

  • I mentioned in my prepared comments some of the other areas where we're exploring beyond the acquisition of GIGAVAC, that we're looking at battery pressure sensors to enable this battery monitoring motor position. There are a number of different other organic applications that we're working on that will allow us to be able to continue to serve the electrification market as that unfolds.

    我在準備好的評論中提到,除了收購 GIGAVAC 之外,我們正在探索的其他一些領域,我們正在研究電池壓力感測器,以實現電池監控馬達位置。我們正在開發許多不同的其他有機應用,這些應用將使我們能夠隨著電氣化市場的發展繼續為該市場提供服務。

  • So feel really good about those initiatives, both the ones that we've acquired and will continue on investing and the ones that we're working on organically.

    因此,對這些舉措感到非常滿意,無論是我們已經獲得並將繼續投資的舉措,還是我們正在有機開展的舉措。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • That is all the time we have allotted for today's call. I'd like to turn the call back over to Joshua Young for closing remarks.

    這就是我們為今天的電話會議分配的全部時間。我想將電話轉回約書亞楊(Joshua Young)做總結發言。

  • Joshua S. Young - VP of IR

    Joshua S. Young - VP of IR

  • I'd like to thank everybody for joining us this morning. Sensata will be attending the following conferences in the first quarter: the Goldman Sachs Technology Conference, the Barclays Industrial Conference, the Citi Industrial Conference and the Wolfe Research Investor Conference. We also invite you to visit us at our headquarters in Attleboro, Massachusetts.

    我要感謝大家今天早上加入我們。森薩塔將在第一季參加以下會議:高盛技術會議、巴克萊工業會議、花旗工業會議和沃爾夫研究投資者會議。我們也邀請您參觀我們位於馬薩諸塞州阿特爾伯勒的總部。

  • Thank you for joining us this morning and for your interest in Sensata. Andrew, you may now end the call.

    感謝您今天早上加入我們以及您對森薩塔的興趣。安德魯,你現在可以結束通話了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

    會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。