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Operator
Operator
Good day, and welcome to Sensata Technologies Q2 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.
美好的一天,歡迎參加森薩塔科技 2023 年第二季度財報電話會議。 (操作員說明)請注意,正在記錄此事件。
I now will turn the conference over to Mr. Jacob Sayer, Vice President of Finance. Please go ahead.
現在我將會議交給財務副總裁 Jacob Sayer 先生。請繼續。
Jacob A. Sayer - VP of Finance & CFO of Performance Sensing Gbu
Jacob A. Sayer - VP of Finance & CFO of Performance Sensing Gbu
Thank you, Keith, and good morning, everybody. I'd like to welcome you to Sensata's Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me on today's call are Jeff Cote, Sensata's CEO and President; and Paul Vasington, Sensata's Chief Financial Officer.
謝謝你,基思,大家早上好。歡迎您參加森薩塔 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。參加今天電話會議的有森薩塔首席執行官兼總裁傑夫·科特 (Jeff Cote);和保羅·瓦辛頓 (Paul Vasington),森薩塔科技首席財務官。
In addition to the financial results press release we issued earlier today, we will be referencing a slide presentation during today's conference call. The PDF of this presentation can be downloaded from Sensata's Investor Relations website. This conference call is being recorded, and we will post a replay webcast on our Investor Relations website shortly after the conclusion of today's call.
除了我們今天早些時候發布的財務業績新聞稿外,我們還將在今天的電話會議上引用幻燈片演示。本演示文稿的 PDF 版本可從森薩塔的投資者關係網站下載。本次電話會議正在錄音,我們將在今天的電話會議結束後不久在投資者關係網站上發佈網絡廣播重播。
As we begin, I'd like to reference Sensata's safe harbor statement on Slide 2. During this conference call, we will make forward-looking statements regarding future events or the financial performance of the company that involve risks and uncertainties. The company's actual results may differ materially from the projections described in such statements.
在我們開始之前,我想參考幻燈片 2 上的森薩塔安全港聲明。在本次電話會議中,我們將就涉及風險和不確定性的未來事件或公司財務業績做出前瞻性聲明。公司的實際結果可能與此類聲明中描述的預測存在重大差異。
Factors that might cause such differences include, but are not limited to, those discussed in our Forms 10-Q and 10-K as well as other subsequent filings with the SEC. We encourage you to review our GAAP financial statements in addition to today's presentation. Most of the information that we will discuss during today's call will relate to non-GAAP financial measures. Our GAAP and non-GAAP financials, including reconciliations are included in our earnings release and in the appendices of our presentation materials.
可能導致此類差異的因素包括但不限於我們的 10-Q 和 10-K 表格以及隨後向 SEC 提交的其他文件中討論的因素。除了今天的演示之外,我們鼓勵您查看我們的 GAAP 財務報表。我們在今天的電話會議中討論的大部分信息都與非公認會計準則財務指標有關。我們的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務數據(包括調節表)包含在我們的收益發布和演示材料的附錄中。
The company provides details of its segment operating income on Slides 7 and 8 of the presentation, which are the primary measures management uses to evaluate the performance of the business. Jeff will begin today with highlights of our business results during the second quarter. He will then provide a few updates on exciting electrification product launches. Paul will cover our detailed financials for the second quarter, updates on capital deployment, and he will discuss our financial guidance for the third quarter of 2023. We'll then take your questions after our prepared remarks.
該公司在演示文稿的幻燈片 7 和 8 中提供了其分部營業收入的詳細信息,這是管理層用來評估業務績效的主要指標。傑夫今天將從我們第二季度的業務業績重點開始。然後,他將提供一些有關令人興奮的電氣化產品發布的最新信息。 Paul 將介紹我們第二季度的詳細財務狀況、資本部署的最新情況,並將討論我們 2023 年第三季度的財務指引。然後,我們將在準備好的發言後回答您的問題。
Now I'd like to turn the call over to Sensata's CEO and President, Jeff Cote.
現在我想將電話轉給森薩塔的首席執行官兼總裁 Jeff Cote。
Jeffrey J. Cote - President, CEO & Director
Jeffrey J. Cote - President, CEO & Director
Thank you, Jacob, and welcome, everyone. I'll start with some summary thoughts on our robust performance during the second quarter, as outlined on Slide 3. During the second quarter, we produced a record $1,062 million in revenue, up 4.1% from the prior year period and above our guidance range despite a 140 basis point headwind from foreign currency.
謝謝你,雅各布,歡迎大家。我將首先對我們在第二季度的強勁業績進行一些總結,如幻燈片 3 所示。在第二季度,我們創造了創紀錄的 10.62 億美元收入,比上年同期增長 4.1%,高於我們的指導範圍儘管外匯帶來 140 個基點的逆風。
Adjusted operating income of $206 million was at the top end of our range. Adjusted operating income margins increased by 40 basis points from the prior year period or 110 basis points on a constant currency basis as we continue to focus on improving our margins.
調整後營業收入為 2.06 億美元,處於我們範圍的上限。由於我們繼續專注於提高利潤率,調整後營業利潤率比上年同期增加了 40 個基點,按固定匯率計算則增加了 110 個基點。
Adjusted net income moved higher by 15% to $149 million, and adjusted earnings per share grew 17% from the prior period or 23% on a constant currency basis to a record $0.97.
調整後淨利潤增長 15%,達到 1.49 億美元,調整後每股收益較上一期增長 17%,按固定匯率計算增長 23%,達到創紀錄的 0.97 美元。
Our customers' supply chain show meaningful signs of returning to normal. Consequently, we believe customers reduced channel inventory to better align material on hand with their production. We estimate this impact was approximately $20 million or 200 basis points across the company in the second quarter, concentrated in automotive and heavy vehicle off-road.
我們客戶的供應鏈顯示出恢復正常的有意義的跡象。因此,我們相信客戶減少了渠道庫存,以便更好地調整現有材料與生產。我們估計第二季度整個公司的影響約為 2000 萬美元或 200 個基點,主要集中在汽車和重型越野車方面。
Taking that into account, market outgrowth for the last 12 months remained within our target range of approximately 535 basis points. As we've said, outgrowth can be lumpy in any quarter, and the second quarter results continue to be impacted by electric vehicle launch schedules. We remain confident in our long-term outgrowth range given our business wins, new product development activities and future launch schedules. Outgrowth to market since the beginning of 2020 has averaged 735 basis points.
考慮到這一點,過去 12 個月的市場增長仍處於我們約 535 個基點的目標範圍內。正如我們所說,任何季度的增長都可能不穩定,第二季度的業績繼續受到電動汽車推出時間表的影響。鑑於我們的業務勝利、新產品開發活動和未來的推出時間表,我們對我們的長期增長范圍仍然充滿信心。自 2020 年初以來,市場產出平均增長 735 個基點。
I'm also pleased that we remain on track to achieve our long-term goal of $2 billion in electrification revenue across the company by 2026. With that revenue growing strongly in the second quarter. In a moment, I will outline exciting new product launches that will help further propel that growth.
我還很高興的是,我們仍然有望實現到 2026 年整個公司電氣化收入達到 20 億美元的長期目標。該收入在第二季度強勁增長。稍後,我將概述令人興奮的新產品發布,這將有助於進一步推動這一增長。
At the beginning of 2023, we outlined a shift in our capital deployment strategy based upon our confidence and our capabilities to effectively intersect the electrification growth vector and deliver innovative solutions to our customers. We continue to execute that strategy during the second quarter, removing variable rate debt from our balance sheet and returning capital to shareholders in the form of debt repayments, the dividend and share repurchases. Considering current interest rate trends, that decision has made strong business sense.
2023 年初,我們根據我們的信心和能力,概述了資本部署戰略的轉變,以有效地貫穿電氣化增長向量並為客戶提供創新解決方案。我們在第二季度繼續執行這一戰略,將可變利率債務從資產負債表中剔除,並以債務償還、股息和股票回購的形式向股東返還資本。考慮到當前的利率趨勢,這一決定具有很強的商業意義。
Our capital allocation strategy reduces risk in our capital structure, lowers interest expense, improves adjusted net income and earnings per share as well as return on invested capital. The end market Sensata serves are expected to experience significant change over the next 10 years, as our customers transform their businesses and product portfolios to adjust to decarbonization trends. Electrification will impact all the end markets we serve. And as we have done repeatedly over our history, we've adapted to market trends. Sensata is focused on continually innovating to help customers solve their mission-critical, hard-to-do engineering challenges on this path toward electrification.
我們的資本配置策略降低了資本結構的風險,降低了利息支出,提高了調整後的淨利潤和每股收益以及投資資本回報率。隨著我們的客戶轉變其業務和產品組合以適應脫碳趨勢,森薩塔服務的終端市場預計將在未來 10 年經歷重大變化。電氣化將影響我們服務的所有終端市場。正如我們在歷史上反复所做的那樣,我們已經適應了市場趨勢。森薩塔致力於不斷創新,幫助客戶解決在電氣化道路上面臨的關鍵任務、難以完成的工程挑戰。
As shown on Slide 4, I'd like to share some thoughts on new products that will help drive our electrification revenue going forward. In renewable power generation, solar energy developers and others are poised to benefit from global initiatives to decarbonized sources of energy, including last year's Inflation Reduction Act in the United States, which provides significant long-term funding to this industry.
如幻燈片 4 所示,我想分享一些關於新產品的想法,這些新產品將有助於推動我們未來的電氣化收入。在可再生能源發電方面,太陽能開發商和其他公司將受益於全球脫碳能源倡議,包括去年美國的《通貨膨脹削減法案》,該法案為該行業提供了大量的長期資金。
To address a key need for this industry, we are launching a fifth-generation line of inverters that contain 3x the power density of its predecessor, creating a highly attractive value proposition for customers. These products, which are launching this quarter are designed to enable new solar and other renewable energy installations to connect seamlessly to the electricity grid. Serving the needs of these installations represents a fast-growing $2.5 billion addressable market for Sensata.
為了滿足該行業的關鍵需求,我們推出了第五代逆變器系列,其功率密度是其前身的 3 倍,為客戶創造了極具吸引力的價值主張。這些產品將於本季度推出,旨在使新的太陽能和其他可再生能源裝置能夠無縫連接到電網。滿足這些安裝的需求代表了森薩塔快速增長的價值 25 億美元的潛在市場。
In addition, we have launched a new battery management system to help address the electrification needs of material handling, work truck and bus OEMs. The BMS is an intelligent component of the battery pack, responsible for advanced monitoring and management of current. Think of it as the brain behind the battery. It plays a critical role in assessing the battery safety, performance, charge rates and longevity. Sensata's N3 battery management system is ASIL-C, and ISO certified off the shelf and offers software flexibility, thus reducing development time and cost for customers. These battery management systems seamlessly manage the very high power requirements that OEMs face and represent a $350 million addressable market by 2028.
此外,我們還推出了新的電池管理系統,以幫助滿足物料搬運、工作卡車和公共汽車原始設備製造商的電氣化需求。 BMS是電池組的智能組件,負責電流的高級監控和管理。將其視為電池背後的大腦。它在評估電池安全性、性能、充電率和壽命方面發揮著關鍵作用。森薩塔的 N3 電池管理系統已通過 ASIL-C 和 ISO 認證,可提供現成的軟件靈活性,從而減少客戶的開發時間和成本。這些電池管理系統可無縫管理 OEM 面臨的極高功率要求,到 2028 年,潛在市場規模將達到 3.5 億美元。
I'll now turn the call over to Paul.
我現在將把電話轉給保羅。
Paul S. Vasington - Executive VP & CFO
Paul S. Vasington - Executive VP & CFO
Thank you, Jeff. Key highlights for the second quarter, as shown on Slide 6, include: record revenue of $1,062 million, an increase of 4.1% in the second quarter of 2022. Revenue growth reflected market growth of approximately 2.5%, inventory contraction of approximately 2% and market outgrowth of approximately 2.9% as well as the net impact of acquisitions and divestitures in the quarter, partially offset by foreign currency headwinds.
謝謝你,傑夫。如幻燈片 6 所示,第二季度的主要亮點包括:創紀錄的收入 10.62 億美元,2022 年第二季度增長 4.1%。收入增長反映了約 2.5% 的市場增長、約 2% 的庫存收縮以及市場增長約 2.9%,以及本季度收購和剝離的淨影響,部分被外匯逆風所抵消。
Adjusted operating income was $206 million, an increase of 6.2% compared to the second quarter of 2022. This increase was primarily due to higher volume, pricing and productivity improvements, partially offset by the impact from acquisitions and divestitures last year, and the unfavorable movements in foreign currencies.
調整後營業收入為 2.06 億美元,較 2022 年第二季度增長 6.2%。這一增長主要是由於銷量增加、定價和生產率提高,部分被去年收購和剝離的影響以及不利變動所抵消外幣。
Adjusted operating margins improved 110 basis points from the prior year period on a constant currency basis due to operational improvements within the business. This represents very strong 39% incremental margins on a constant currency basis and over 80% incremental margins organically.
由於業務內部運營的改善,按固定匯率計算,調整後的營業利潤率比上年同期提高了 110 個基點。這代表著按固定匯率計算的 39% 的增量利潤率以及超過 80% 的有機增量利潤率。
Record adjusted earnings per share of $0.97 in the second quarter grew 17% from the prior year quarter, faster than adjusted operating income due to lower interest expense, a lower cash tax rate and a lower share count. On a constant currency basis, adjusted earnings per share would have been $1.02, representing 23% growth from the prior year period.
第二季度調整後每股收益創歷史新高,為 0.97 美元,較去年同期增長 17%,由於利息支出、現金稅率和股票數量減少,增速快於調整後營業收入。按固定匯率計算,調整後每股收益為 1.02 美元,較上年同期增長 23%。
Now I'd like to comment on the performance of our 2 business segments in the second quarter of 2023, starting with Performance Sensing on Slide 7. Our Performance Sensing business reported revenues of $757.4 million, an increase of 3.5% compared to the same quarter last year. Automotive revenue increased due to market growth, content launches and higher pricing, partially offset by the unfavorable revenue mix, inventory destocking, slow new product launch ramps in foreign currency.
現在我想談談我們 2023 年第二季度 2 個業務部門的業績,從幻燈片 7 上的性能傳感開始。我們的性能傳感業務報告收入為 7.574 億美元,較同季度增長 3.5%去年。由於市場增長、內容髮布和定價上漲,汽車收入有所增長,但部分被不利的收入結構、庫存去庫存、外幣新產品推出緩慢所抵消。
Growth in heavy vehicle off-road revenue reflects market and content growth, partially offset by inventory destocking and unfavorable foreign currency. Performance Sensing operating income was $191.1 million, with operating margins of 25.2%. Segment operating margins increased year-over-year, largely due to improved pricing, higher volumes and productivity, partially offset by unfavorable foreign currency. Excluding the foreign currency impact, Performance Sensing operating margin would have been 26%.
重型車輛越野收入的增長反映了市場和內容的增長,但部分被庫存去庫存和不利的外匯所抵消。 Performance Sensing 營業收入為 1.911 億美元,營業利潤率為 25.2%。部門營業利潤率同比增長,主要是由於定價改善、產量提高和生產率提高,但部分被不利的外匯所抵消。排除外匯影響,Performance Sensing 營業利潤率為 26%。
At the start of the quarter, Sensata moved the reporting of certain material handling products from heavy vehicle off-road in performance sensing to industrial and sensing solutions to reflect changes in our reporting structure. Prior periods have been restated to reflect this change.
本季度初,森薩塔將某些物料搬運產品的報告從重型越野車性能傳感轉移到工業和傳感解決方案,以反映我們報告結構的變化。先前期間已重新表述以反映這一變化。
As shown on Slide 8, Sensing Solutions reported revenues of $304.7 million in the second quarter, an increase of 5.5% as compared to the same quarter last year. Industrial revenue increased due to strong acquired revenue growth in electrification, offset somewhat by weaker markets, especially in HVAC and appliance and unfavorable foreign currency. Aerospace revenue increased strongly in the quarter due to market, pricing and content growth.
如幻燈片 8 所示,Sensing Solutions 第二季度營收為 3.047 億美元,比去年同期增長 5.5%。由於電氣化領域的收入強勁增長,工業收入有所增長,但在一定程度上被市場疲軟(尤其是暖通空調和家電領域)以及不利的外匯所抵消。由於市場、定價和內容的增長,航空航天收入在本季度強勁增長。
Sensing Solutions operating income was $84.2 million with operating margins of 27.6%. The decrease in segment operating margin was primarily due to the net margin impact of acquisitions and divestitures of 400 basis points. Excluding the foreign currency impact, Sensing Solutions operating margins would have remained the same at 27.6%.
傳感解決方案部門的營業收入為 8,420 萬美元,營業利潤率為 27.6%。分部營業利潤率下降主要是由於收購和剝離對淨利潤率影響 400 個基點。排除匯率影響,傳感解決方案的營業利潤率將保持在 27.6% 不變。
On Slide 9, corporate and other operating expenses not included in segment operating income were $81.5 million in the second quarter of 2023. Adjusted for charges excluded from our non-GAAP results, corporate and other costs were $68.1 million, a decrease from the prior year quarter primarily reflecting cost controls and lower incentive compensation. We expect to invest $60 million to $70 million in Megatrend-related research and development this year to design and develop differentiated solutions to address trends impacting our customers' businesses.
在幻燈片 9 中,2023 年第二季度未計入分部營業收入的公司和其他運營費用為 8150 萬美元。根據非 GAAP 業績中排除的費用進行調整後,公司和其他成本為 6810 萬美元,比上年有所下降該季度主要反映了成本控制和較低的激勵薪酬。我們預計今年將投資 6000 萬至 7000 萬美元用於大趨勢相關的研發,以設計和開發差異化的解決方案,以應對影響客戶業務的趨勢。
New business wins are a leading indicator of future outgrowth to market. Given the long cycle nature of our business, new business wins are tied to trends in our end markets and are best viewed on a multiyear basis. We expect to sign approximately $600 million to $800 million of new business wins this year, representing a 3-year average of nearly $800 million, a substantial increase from prior period averages.
新業務的勝利是未來市場增長的領先指標。鑑於我們業務的長周期性質,新業務的勝利與我們終端市場的趨勢密切相關,最好以多年為基礎來看待。我們預計今年將簽署約 6 億至 8 億美元的新業務,相當於 3 年平均近 8 億美元,比上一時期的平均水平大幅增加。
Moving to Slide 10. Our capital deployment strategy and steadily improving returns to shareholders. As indicated by our improving return on investment capital of 9.8%, up 50 basis points from the end of 2022. We generated $68 million in free cash flow during the second quarter, up substantially from the prior year period and $371 million in free cash flow over the last 12 months, representing 65% conversion of adjusted net income.
轉向幻燈片 10。我們的資本配置策略和穩步提高股東回報。正如我們的投資資本回報率提高至 9.8% 所示,比 2022 年底增長了 50 個基點。第二季度我們產生了 6800 萬美元的自由現金流,較去年同期大幅增長,自由現金流為 3.71 億美元過去 12 個月,相當於調整後淨利潤的 65% 轉換。
For the full year 2023, we expect free cash flow conversion to be approximately 75% of adjusted net income, consistent with Sensata's long-term average. Capital expenditures are expected to be in the range of $170 million to $180 million for 2023. We paid down the balance of our outstanding variable rate term loan during the second quarter. Our net leverage ratio was 3.2x at the end of June 2023. And we expect this to decline to below 2.5x by the end of 2025, primarily through strong free cash flow generation.
對於 2023 年全年,我們預計自由現金流轉換約為調整後淨利潤的 75%,與森薩塔的長期平均水平一致。 2023 年的資本支出預計在 1.7 億至 1.8 億美元之間。我們在第二季度償還了未償還的浮動利率定期貸款餘額。截至 2023 年 6 月底,我們的淨槓桿率為 3.2 倍。我們預計到 2025 年底,這一數字將降至 2.5 倍以下,這主要是通過強勁的自由現金流產生。
During the quarter, we returned $25 million to shareholders in the form of share repurchases. In addition, we recently announced our Q3 quarterly dividend of $0.12 per share that is expected to be paid on August 23 to shareholders of record on August 9. We are providing financial guidance for the third quarter of 2023, as shown on Slide 11.
本季度,我們以股票回購的形式向股東返還 2500 萬美元。此外,我們最近宣布了每股 0.12 美元的第三季度季度股息,預計將於 8 月 23 日向 8 月 9 日登記在冊的股東支付。我們正在提供 2023 年第三季度的財務指導,如幻燈片 11 所示。
Our expectations are based upon the end market growth outlook shown on the right side of this page. We are aligned with IHS estimates for automotive production on a Sensata revenue-weighted basis. Foreign exchange represents an expected $6 million headwind to revenue, a 90 basis point headwind to adjusted operating margin and a $0.03 headwind to adjusted EPS in the third quarter. Excluding the impact of FX, adjusted operating income margin expectations for the third quarter represents a 60 basis point improvement from the prior year period. Our current fill rate is approximately 90% of the revenue guidance midpoint for the third quarter. This is consistent with fill levels we experienced pre-pandemic, and represent a return to normalcy of customers' supply chain dynamics.
我們的預期基於本頁右側顯示的終端市場增長前景。我們與 IHS 基於森薩塔收入加權的汽車產量預測保持一致。外匯交易意味著第三季度收入預計將面臨 600 萬美元的阻力,調整後營業利潤將面臨 90 個基點的阻力,調整後每股收益將面臨 0.03 美元的阻力。排除外彙的影響,調整後的第三季度營業利潤率預期較去年同期提高了 60 個基點。我們目前的填充率約為第三季度收入指導中點的 90%。這與我們在大流行前經歷的填充水平一致,代表客戶供應鏈動態恢復正常。
Looking to the full year 2023, we now expect foreign exchange to be a $49 million headwind to revenue and a $0.20 headwind to adjusted earnings per share given term exchange rates.
展望 2023 年全年,我們現在預計,在考慮到定期匯率的情況下,外匯將對收入產生 4,900 萬美元的阻力,對調整後每股收益產生 0.20 美元的阻力。
Now let me turn the call back over to Jeff for closing comments.
現在讓我將電話轉回傑夫以徵求結束意見。
Jeffrey J. Cote - President, CEO & Director
Jeffrey J. Cote - President, CEO & Director
Thank you, Paul. Let me wrap up with a few key messages as outlined on Slide 12. Sensata's business, organizational model and growth strategy are strong, resilient and validated. As we deliver mission-critical, highly engineered solutions required by our customers. While end markets are expected to remain volatile due to inflation, higher interest rates, the risk of recession in various geographies and geopolitical events, Sensata's strong management team provides proven experience in navigating choppy markets. We continue to execute on our growth initiatives as we transform the business to focus on rapid growth opportunities across all the end markets we serve. We are making excellent progress in electrification as demonstrated by strong new business wins and significant revenue growth.
謝謝你,保羅。讓我以幻燈片 12 中概述的一些關鍵信息作為結束語。森薩塔的業務、組織模式和增長戰略強大、有彈性且經過驗證。我們提供客戶所需的關鍵任務、高度工程化的解決方案。儘管由於通貨膨脹、利率上升、不同地區的經濟衰退風險以及地緣政治事件,預計終端市場將繼續波動,但森薩塔強大的管理團隊在應對波動的市場方面提供了成熟的經驗。隨著我們將業務轉型為專注於我們所服務的所有終端市場的快速增長機會,我們將繼續執行我們的增長計劃。我們在電氣化領域取得了巨大進展,新業務的強勁增長和收入的顯著增長就證明了這一點。
Our success in driving this transformation allows us to focus now on strengthening our financial returns through improved margins, stronger free cash flow and higher returns on invested capital. As shown by the examples I discussed today, we continue to innovate for our customers, solving their difficult engineering challenges in providing differentiated solutions to a widening array of customers, while specifically leveraging our expanding electrification product set, solving mission-critical challenges enable Sensata to earn long-term customer trust as demonstrated by our expected $600 million to $800 million in new business wins this year and by delivering industry-leading margins for our shareholders.
我們在推動這一轉型方面取得的成功使我們現在能夠專注於通過提高利潤率、更強的自由現金流和更高的投資資本回報率來增強我們的財務回報。正如我今天討論的示例所示,我們繼續為客戶進行創新,解決他們面臨的艱鉅工程挑戰,為越來越多的客戶提供差異化的解決方案,同時專門利用我們不斷擴大的電氣化產品集,解決關鍵任務挑戰,使森薩塔能夠我們今年預計將贏得 6 億至 8 億美元的新業務,並為股東提供行業領先的利潤,這證明了我們贏得了長期客戶的信任。
I'm pleased with our progress in delivering on Sensata's long-standing vision to help create a cleaner, safer, more electrified and connected world, not just for our customers' products, but also through our own operations, we strive to meaningfully contribute to a better world. We are making good progress on achieving our ESG targets, and I encourage you to read our latest sustainability report, which describes the long-term sustainability and success of the company for all of its stakeholders.
我很高興我們在實現森薩塔長期願景方面取得的進展,幫助創建一個更清潔、更安全、更電氣化和互聯的世界,不僅是為了我們客戶的產品,而且還通過我們自己的運營,我們努力為以下目標做出有意義的貢獻:一個更好的世界。我們在實現 ESG 目標方面取得了良好進展,我鼓勵您閱讀我們最新的可持續發展報告,該報告描述了公司所有利益相關者的長期可持續發展和成功。
And finally, I'm very excited about sharing our innovation path and strategy and an investor event in New York City on September 27. You can find more details on our website regarding that event.
最後,我非常高興能夠分享我們的創新路徑和戰略以及 9 月 27 日在紐約市舉行的投資者活動。您可以在我們的網站上找到有關該活動的更多詳細信息。
Now I'll turn the call back to Jacob.
現在我將把電話轉回給雅各布。
Jacob A. Sayer - VP of Finance & CFO of Performance Sensing Gbu
Jacob A. Sayer - VP of Finance & CFO of Performance Sensing Gbu
Thank you, Jeff. We'll now move to Q&A. Keith, would you please introduce the first question?
謝謝你,傑夫。我們現在進入問答環節。 Keith,您能介紹一下第一個問題嗎?
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) And this morning's first question comes from Wamsi Mohan with Bank of America.
(操作員說明)今天早上的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Wamsi Mohan。
Wamsi Mohan - MD in Americas Equity Research
Wamsi Mohan - MD in Americas Equity Research
Jeff, your outgrowth in the first half is well below your long-term outgrowth. As you look over the next 12 months, can you talk about some of the puts and takes? And do you expect if inventory will still continue to be an overhang as it was 200 basis points in this quarter? And what are maybe some of the drivers that you think could possibly reverse over the next 12 months, particularly on outgrowth?
傑夫,你上半年的增長遠低於你的長期增長。展望未來 12 個月,您能談談一些看法嗎?您是否預計庫存是否仍將繼續處於過剩狀態,本季度庫存為 200 個基點?您認為未來 12 個月可能扭轉的驅動因素有哪些,特別是在增長方面?
And if I could, one for Paul as well. On the margin front, you had very, very strong incremental margins in the quarter that you noted. How should we think about the sustainability of these very strong incremental margins?
如果可以的話,也給保羅一份。在利潤方面,您提到的那個季度的利潤增量非常非常強勁。我們應該如何考慮這些非常強勁的增量利潤的可持續性?
Jeffrey J. Cote - President, CEO & Director
Jeffrey J. Cote - President, CEO & Director
Great. Thanks, Wamsi. So we discussed last quarter the expectation regarding outgrowth in the first half of this year given some well-publicized delays around some electrification platforms that we're on. But again, we want to emphasize outgrowth and NBOs for that matter as indicators of long-term success. So we have no concerns regarding our long-term outgrowth. We're very comfortable with the 400 to 600 range of outgrowth. The last year, last 12 months, it's been 535 basis points. The last 3 years, a little more than 3 years, it's been 735 basis points.
偉大的。謝謝,瓦姆西。因此,考慮到我們所使用的一些電氣化平台出現了一些廣為人知的延誤,我們上季度討論了對今年上半年增長的預期。但我們再次強調,增長和 NBO 是長期成功的指標。因此,我們對長期增長不存在任何擔憂。我們對 400 到 600 的生長范圍感到非常滿意。去年,過去 12 個月,這個數字是 535 個基點。過去 3 年,也就是 3 年多一點,已經上升了 735 個基點。
So I would encourage all to look at that as a long-term measure, not to look at an individual quarter in terms of the outgrowth there are puts and takes regarding the launches, mix of business and so forth that will impact that on our short-term measures. So I don't want it to confuse the view around secular long-term growth that we're very confident in, and we're sharing with investors the indicators around new business wins that will support that long term.
因此,我鼓勵所有人將其視為一項長期措施,而不是從單個季度的增長角度來看待,有關產品發布、業務組合等方面的看跌期權和拿取金額將影響我們的短期業績。 - 長期措施。因此,我不希望它混淆我們對長期增長的看法,我們對此非常有信心,並且我們正在與投資者分享有關新業務勝利的指標,這些指標將支持長期增長。
Regarding the inventory question, the one -- the couple of end markets where we're able to understand what inventory is or at least we have a model that we believe gives us a view into inventories around the automotive market during the second quarter, about $20 million on wound, that would lead us to believe there's still about $20 million. But it's getting to the point, Wamsi, where it's not a meaningful portion of inventory. We do really feel as though the order patterns from our customers and their inventory planning process is getting back to normal.
關於庫存問題,我們能夠了解庫存是什麼的幾個終端市場,或者至少我們有一個模型,我們相信它可以讓我們了解第二季度汽車市場的庫存,大約傷口價值 2000 萬美元,這會讓我們相信還有大約 2000 萬美元。但現在已經到了Wamsi 的地步,它不再是庫存中有意義的部分。我們確實感覺客戶的訂單模式及其庫存計劃流程正在恢復正常。
I would credit that to not only changing market dynamics, but also how Sensata has served that market. If we are successful in delivering to our customers when they ask it, they'll get back to more normal order patterns and they won't carry extra inventory. So we're seeing that for sure, and I wouldn't expect it to be meaningful, but we'll continue to call out if we see inventory takeout in the system that we believe is happening or build in the system just to provide that level of transparency. But again, it's not a meaningful impact.
我認為這不僅歸功於不斷變化的市場動態,還歸功於森薩塔為該市場提供的服務。如果我們能夠在客戶提出要求時成功交付給他們,他們就會恢復到更正常的訂單模式,並且不會攜帶額外的庫存。因此,我們肯定會看到這一點,我不希望它有意義,但如果我們看到我們認為正在發生的系統中正在發生庫存取出,或者只是為了提供這種情況而在系統中構建庫存,我們將繼續呼籲透明度程度。但同樣,這並不是一個有意義的影響。
Paul S. Vasington - Executive VP & CFO
Paul S. Vasington - Executive VP & CFO
Wamsi, it's Paul. So as we said, our cost structure as it stands today has the capacity to serve more volume. And so you're seeing that in the incremental margins this quarter, where we're getting some better volumes. We're able to convert that at higher contribution rate. And for the foreseeable future, that's the kind of leverage I would expect until we get to a point where we need to start adding capacity and to support incremental growth. But that would be the expectation, at least for the foreseeable future in terms of what we should convert incremental volume at in that 35% to 40% range.
萬西,是保羅。正如我們所說,我們目前的成本結構有能力滿足更多的需求。所以你會看到,在本季度的增量利潤中,我們獲得了一些更好的銷量。我們能夠以更高的貢獻率進行轉換。在可預見的未來,我期望這種槓桿作用,直到我們達到需要開始增加產能並支持增量增長的程度。但這將是我們的預期,至少在可預見的未來,我們應該將增量轉化為 35% 至 40% 的範圍。
Operator
Operator
And the next question comes from Mark Delaney with Goldman Sachs.
下一個問題來自高盛的馬克·德萊尼。
Mark Trevor Delaney - Equity Analyst
Mark Trevor Delaney - Equity Analyst
Your revenue guidance assumes the auto end market is down 5% year-on-year in 3Q. I believe you said you're assuming something similar to IHS. But maybe you could elaborate a bit more on what you're seeing by end market from -- by region from your customers? And are you specifically trying to incorporate a strike in North America later in 3Q as part of your outlook?
你們的收入指引假設第三季度汽車終端市場同比下降5%。我相信你說過你的假設與 IHS 類似。但也許您可以詳細說明您從終端市場(按地區)從客戶那裡看到的情況?您是否特別嘗試將第三季度晚些時候在北美舉行的罷工作為您的展望的一部分?
Jeffrey J. Cote - President, CEO & Director
Jeffrey J. Cote - President, CEO & Director
Mark, thanks for that question, a couple of good points. So yes, the guide of $1 billion at our midpoint of guide would represent about a 5.5%, 5.8% down from Q2 2023. Now I'd note that -- that is, again, returning to more normal seasonality in the business. So if you look back to 2018 and '19, we saw a 4% to 6% decline from Q2 to Q3 associated with normal seasonality. So that is again another indicator of us regarding more normal patterns in terms of the business. That's been anything but normal over the last several years. And so I would view that decline from Q2 to Q3 as more normal.
馬克,謝謝你提出這個問題,有幾點很好。所以,是的,我們的指導中值 10 億美元的指導值將比 2023 年第二季度下降約 5.5% 至 5.8%。現在我要指出的是,也就是說,業務再次回歸到更正常的季節性。因此,如果你回顧 2018 年和 19 年,我們會看到與正常季節性相關的第二季度到第三季度下降了 4% 到 6%。因此,這又是我們關於業務方面更正常模式的另一個指標。在過去的幾年裡,這種情況一點也不正常。因此,我認為從第二季度到第三季度的下降更為正常。
And also down 2% from Q3 of last year, where that's coming from is market, right? So it's -- our market estimation across all markets is down 5.5%, third quarter of last year to third quarter of this year. We also have about a 60 basis point headwind associated with foreign exchange. So that's the driving factor obviously around the overall expectation regarding revenue down year-over-year on a quarter basis.
而且比去年第三季度下降了 2%,這來自於市場,對嗎?所以,從去年第三季度到今年第三季度,我們對所有市場的市場估計下降了 5.5%。我們還面臨與外匯相關的約 60 個基點的逆風。因此,這顯然是圍繞季度收入同比下降的總體預期的驅動因素。
Regarding individual markets, as we indicated, we're right now on top of IHS in terms of production levels. They're forecasting auto to be down about 4%. And so we're down 5% when we waited for our impact associated with our business and the mix of our business, but pretty much in line with that. And what we're seeing is on a year-over-year basis, HVOR recovering a couple hundred basis points arrow going up 4% or 5%.
至於個別市場,正如我們所指出的,我們目前在生產水平方面處於 IHS 的領先地位。他們預測汽車行業將下跌約 4%。因此,當我們等待與我們的業務和業務組合相關的影響時,我們下降了 5%,但與此基本一致。我們看到的是,與去年同期相比,HVOR 恢復了幾百個基點,上漲了 4% 或 5%。
And then industrial, which is a very broad, diversified industrial market down dramatically. And I think the best indicators of that are around PMI across the world. Remember, we have some concentration there on HVAC, major home appliance, lighting, industrial lighting. And so that's continued down consistent actually with where we were in the second quarter. So hopefully, that provides a little bit more color for you.
然後是工業,這是一個非常廣闊、多元化的工業市場,急劇下降。我認為最好的指標是全球的 PMI。請記住,我們的重點是暖通空調、大型家電、照明、工業照明。因此,這一數字繼續下降,實際上與我們第二季度的情況一致。希望這能為您提供更多色彩。
Mark Trevor Delaney - Equity Analyst
Mark Trevor Delaney - Equity Analyst
Yes, that's helpful. I mean, and then just specifically around the potential UAW strike in North America, I mean is that something you try to incorporate it all within the range of guidance? Or just any more color on how you're thinking about that potential headwind in 3Q, if that does, in fact, come to fruition?
是的,這很有幫助。我的意思是,然後,特別是圍繞北美潛在的聯合汽車工人工會罷工,我的意思是,您是否試圖將其全部納入指導範圍內?或者,如果這確實實現的話,您如何看待第三季度的潛在逆風?
Jeffrey J. Cote - President, CEO & Director
Jeffrey J. Cote - President, CEO & Director
Yes. Great. Thank you. [Forgot] that one. So we are obviously keeping a very close eye on that. Our -- the indications that we hear from our customers is that a potential for more of a late Q3 or early Q4 impact. We are not seeing anything associated with order patterns that would suggest that anybody is preparing for that, although I think everybody is watching it very closely. And it is not contemplated in our guide.
是的。偉大的。謝謝。 [忘了]那個。所以我們顯然正在密切關注這一點。我們從客戶那裡聽到的跡像是,第三季度末或第四季度初可能會產生更大的影響。儘管我認為每個人都在密切關注,但我們沒有看到任何與訂單模式相關的信息表明任何人都在為此做好準備。我們的指南中沒有考慮到這一點。
And so obviously, if there is a nearer-term impact associated with that, then we'll -- the impact on our revenue will be commensurate with the impact on overall production levels that are -- that result from anything on that. So we were hoping for a positive outcome on that, but we're watching it very closely, but it's not contemplated in our $1 billion midpoint of guide range.
顯然,如果存在與此相關的近期影響,那麼對我們收入的影響將與由此產生的對總體生產水平的影響相稱。因此,我們希望在這方面能取得積極成果,但我們正在密切關注,但我們 10 億美元的指導範圍中值並未考慮到這一點。
Jacob A. Sayer - VP of Finance & CFO of Performance Sensing Gbu
Jacob A. Sayer - VP of Finance & CFO of Performance Sensing Gbu
Thanks, Mark, for the question.
謝謝馬克提出這個問題。
Operator
Operator
And the next question comes from Matt Sheerin with Stifel.
下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Matt Sheerin。
Matthew John Sheerin - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst
Matthew John Sheerin - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst
Yes. I'm hoping you can update us on pricing trends. It looks like it's been a tailwind for the last couple of quarters, less so in the coming quarter. So what's happening there in terms of pricing, particularly in the auto market?
是的。我希望您能為我們提供最新的定價趨勢。看起來過去幾個季度一直是順風車,但下一季度的情況就不那麼明顯了。那麼,在定價方面,特別是在汽車市場,發生了什麼?
Paul S. Vasington - Executive VP & CFO
Paul S. Vasington - Executive VP & CFO
So we continue to get positive pricing. It continues to more than offset the inflationary conditions around material prices that we've been experiencing for the last couple of years. So it continues to be a positive to revenue into profitability. Now we are now going to start comparing to more difficult comps. So the absolute increase quarter-over-quarter will be more challenging, but we're still positive on the pricing side.
因此,我們繼續獲得積極的定價。它繼續遠遠抵消了過去幾年我們所經歷的材料價格的通脹狀況。因此,它仍然對收入轉化為盈利能力產生積極影響。現在我們要開始與更困難的比賽進行比較。因此,季度環比的絕對增長將更具挑戰性,但我們對定價方面仍然持樂觀態度。
Matthew John Sheerin - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst
Matthew John Sheerin - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst
Okay. Great. And Jeff, could you update us on insights, the telematics business? I know you made a lot of investments there. Could you give us an update on the business and the traction you're seeing?
好的。偉大的。 Jeff,您能給我們介紹一下遠程信息處理業務的最新見解嗎?我知道你在那裡做了很多投資。您能給我們介紹一下該業務的最新情況以及您所看到的吸引力嗎?
Jeffrey J. Cote - President, CEO & Director
Jeffrey J. Cote - President, CEO & Director
Yes, absolutely. So remember that the premise here is that the telematics ecosystem broadly, logistics and supply chains benefit from more information. It makes their systems and their process more efficient and safe. And we have a lot of sensors that can bring data to that. Our acquisitions have been around collecting that sensor data on equipped and getting it to a cloud, in some instances, analyzing it and feeding it to customer fleet management systems.
是的,一點沒錯。因此請記住,這裡的前提是,廣泛的遠程信息處理生態系統、物流和供應鏈受益於更多信息。它使他們的系統和流程更加高效和安全。我們有很多傳感器可以為其帶來數據。我們的收購主要是收集裝備上的傳感器數據並將其傳輸到雲端,在某些情況下,對其進行分析並將其提供給客戶車隊管理系統。
Continued positive trends in terms of what we see in terms of the opportunity there. But the reality is it's a $180 million business. It's going to grow very nicely, but it's become increasingly clear as a company that our future is electrification. We'll continue to focus on insights as we will continue to focus on safe and efficient applications in other powertrains but the future in terms of the trend and the acceleration of the trend associated with electrification is the area that we really need to be investing.
就我們所看到的機會而言,持續的積極趨勢。但現實是這是一項價值 1.8 億美元的業務。它會發展得非常好,但作為一家公司,我們越來越清楚我們的未來是電氣化。我們將繼續關注洞察,就像我們將繼續關注其他動力系統中的安全和高效應用一樣,但未來的趨勢以及與電氣化相關的趨勢的加速是我們真正需要投資的領域。
Our Megatrend investments have been disproportionately in the electrification area for some time now, and we'll continue to invest in insights as a growth vector, but electrification is the future of the company given where our customers are going.
一段時間以來,我們的大趨勢投資在電氣化領域一直不成比例,我們將繼續投資於洞察力作為增長載體,但考慮到我們客戶的發展方向,電氣化是公司的未來。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Christopher Glynn with Oppenheimer.
下一個問題來自克里斯托弗·格林和奧本海默。
Christopher D. Glynn - MD & Senior Analyst
Christopher D. Glynn - MD & Senior Analyst
Any comments or expectations, aspirations around the market capture you see Sensata able to harness for the Compact Power 5?
您認為森薩塔能夠為 Compact Power 5 利用市場捕獲的任何評論或期望、願望嗎?
Jeffrey J. Cote - President, CEO & Director
Jeffrey J. Cote - President, CEO & Director
So on the inverter side, is that what you're referring to, Chris?
那麼在逆變器方面,這就是你指的,克里斯?
Christopher D. Glynn - MD & Senior Analyst
Christopher D. Glynn - MD & Senior Analyst
Yes, Jeff.
是的,傑夫。
Jeffrey J. Cote - President, CEO & Director
Jeffrey J. Cote - President, CEO & Director
Yes. So recall last July, we acquired Dynapower, which was an industrial-grade inverter converter business serving that market. The business has performed very well, and we're really excited about the opportunity here associated with these new product launches that will really play well in terms of the overall market. It is a large market. There are some very niche areas that Dynapower is focused on associated with defense-related application but also hydrogen and other applications where we have targeted as being meaningful opportunities for us.
是的。回想一下去年 7 月,我們收購了 Dynapower,這是一家服務於該市場的工業級逆變器轉換器業務。該業務表現非常好,我們對與這些新產品發布相關的機會感到非常興奮,這些新產品將在整個市場中發揮良好作用。這是一個很大的市場。 Dynapower 專注於與國防相關應用相關的一些非常利基的領域,但也包括氫和其他應用,我們將這些領域視為對我們有意義的機會。
And I think if you follow sort of the trends associated with renewable energy, those are areas that will continue to see very strong investment from governments around the world. So we feel great about that, and we're going to continue to make sure that we execute in the market to bring that. This is part of our electrification strategy. I think that most tend to think of Sensata as a component play with OEMs, this is building on our view that with the electrification of all this equipment, there will need to be significant and considerable investment around grid hardening associated with the global infrastructure and Dynapower as well as, if you recall, lithium balance around battery management and other applications, that's our play in that area. And so we're feeling really positive about it.
我認為,如果你遵循與可再生能源相關的趨勢,這些領域將繼續得到世界各國政府的大力投資。所以我們對此感覺很好,我們將繼續確保我們在市場上執行以實現這一目標。這是我們電氣化戰略的一部分。我認為大多數人傾向於將森薩塔視為與原始設備製造商合作的組件,這是基於我們的觀點,即隨著所有這些設備的電氣化,將需要圍繞與全球基礎設施和 Dynapower 相關的電網強化進行大量投資如果您還記得的話,還有圍繞電池管理和其他應用的鋰平衡,這就是我們在該領域的業務。所以我們對此感到非常積極。
Operator
Operator
And the next question comes from Luke Junk with Baird.
下一個問題來自盧克·垃圾和貝爾德。
Luke L. Junk - Senior Research Analyst
Luke L. Junk - Senior Research Analyst
I just want to circle back on auto trends. And if you could just maybe help us understand the magnitude, at least on a relative basis of the auto headwinds you saw this quarter. So I'm thinking channel inventory destocking, you called that out as 200 bps overall. And maybe if you could comment on auto specifically plus the adverse mix and launch delays. Are those latter to similar? Or is there one of those factors that's having a more meaningful impact? And then as we look to 3Q and beyond, just how sticky each of those might or might not be?
我只想回顧一下汽車趨勢。如果您能幫助我們了解其嚴重程度,至少是在您本季度看到的汽車逆風的相對基礎上。所以我在考慮渠道庫存去庫存,你稱其總體為 200 個基點。也許您可以具體評論汽車以及不利的組合和啟動延遲。後者相似嗎?或者這些因素中是否有一個因素能夠產生更有意義的影響?然後,當我們展望第三季度及以後時,這些因素的粘性到底有多大,也可能沒有?
Jeffrey J. Cote - President, CEO & Director
Jeffrey J. Cote - President, CEO & Director
Yes, absolutely. So we're not anticipating more channel destocking in our guide right now. So it's largely driven by the overall market. IHS forecast production to be down 4% in the third quarter versus third quarter of last year. That's going to come largely in China. So China is expected to be the one that's down the most. And so we're pretty much mirroring the impact associated with that. So that's the big driver in terms of really auto decline year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter, but also the company, given the fact that 50% of our business is automotive. So that's where we're seeing the largest impact on that book.
是的,一點沒錯。因此,我們目前預計指南中不會有更多的渠道去庫存。所以它很大程度上是由整體市場驅動的。 IHS 預測第三季度產量將比去年第三季度下降 4%。這將主要發生在中國。因此,預計中國將成為跌幅最嚴重的國家。因此,我們幾乎反映了與此相關的影響。因此,考慮到我們 50% 的業務是汽車業務,這是汽車業務同比和環比下降的主要推動因素,也是公司的主要推動因素。這就是我們看到這本書影響最大的地方。
Luke L. Junk - Senior Research Analyst
Luke L. Junk - Senior Research Analyst
Just if I could clarify the adverse mix and the launch delays, to what extent are those reflected or not reflected in the third quarter outlook, Jeff?
傑夫,如果我能澄清不利的組合和發布延遲,這些在第三季度展望中反映或未反映的程度如何?
Jeffrey J. Cote - President, CEO & Director
Jeffrey J. Cote - President, CEO & Director
They're absolutely reflected in the guide. We're comfortable with being able to stay within that 400 to 600 range in the last 12 months, but we know that some of that mix will continue to be a drag to the in-quarter overall outgrowth range. But remember, when that -- when those launches come back, that will be a pickup range. So if something pushes out of a quarter or out of a first half of the year eventually, our customers will need to pick that up, and that will overlap other opportunities that we are also anticipating. So it's not lost revenue. It's just deferred revenue that we have to contemplate in the overall guide. It will start to pick up in the second half of the year, much like it did from first quarter to second quarter. But we continue to see some delays on that front.
它們絕對反映在指南中。我們對過去 12 個月能夠保持在 400 至 600 的範圍內感到滿意,但我們知道其中一些組合將繼續拖累季度內的整體增長范圍。但請記住,當這些發射回來時,那將是一個皮卡範圍。因此,如果某些事情最終超出了一個季度或上半年,我們的客戶將需要接受它,這將與我們也預期的其他機會重疊。所以這並不是收入損失。這只是我們必須在總體指南中考慮的遞延收入。它將在下半年開始回升,就像第一季度到第二季度一樣。但我們仍然看到這方面出現了一些延誤。
Operator
Operator
And the next question comes from (inaudible) with Evercore.
下一個問題來自(聽不清)Evercore。
Unidentified Analyst
Unidentified Analyst
So I just wanted to ask about the row to 21% margins. And I know it's a longer-term target, but -- just wanted to understand what the biggest levers will be to get there from the current 19%. I know you guys mentioned volume last time, but any incremental information would be great. And I also wanted to ask you guys whether you're seeing any ease from commodity [and freight] costs coming down, which might be a tailwind.
所以我只是想問一下關於 21% 利潤率的問題。我知道這是一個長期目標,但是 - 只是想了解從目前的 19% 實現這一目標的最大槓桿是什麼。我知道你們上次提到了數量,但任何增量信息都會很棒。我還想問你們是否看到商品[和貨運]成本下降有所緩解,這可能是一種順風。
Paul S. Vasington - Executive VP & CFO
Paul S. Vasington - Executive VP & CFO
Let me test the second part of that.
讓我測試一下第二部分。
Jeffrey J. Cote - President, CEO & Director
Jeffrey J. Cote - President, CEO & Director
Commodity prices...
商品價格...
Paul S. Vasington - Executive VP & CFO
Paul S. Vasington - Executive VP & CFO
So I guess there's 2 things. One, we've been very prescriptive about the impact that currency is having year-over-year for benchmarking ourselves to a 21% margin that we've demonstrated in the past. If you adjust for currency, with 110 basis points headwind in the second quarter. And then just to be consistent with what we've done in the past, volume will be the largest driver of our margin increase over time. We're -- I think executing well on the pricing inflation dynamic. We're managing our cost structure very efficiently as the volumes start to come back, particularly in businesses like our industrial business, we'll see very, very significant incremental margins, as I mentioned earlier, that would be the thing that would drive us towards the 21%.
所以我想有兩件事。第一,我們對貨幣逐年產生的影響非常明確,我們過去已經證明了 21% 的利潤率。如果根據貨幣進行調整,第二季度將面臨 110 個基點的逆風。然後,為了與我們過去所做的保持一致,隨著時間的推移,銷量將成為我們利潤增長的最大驅動力。我認為我們在定價通脹動態方面執行得很好。隨著產量開始回升,我們正在非常有效地管理我們的成本結構,特別是在我們的工業業務等業務中,我們將看到非常非常顯著的增量利潤,正如我之前提到的,這將是推動我們發展的動力向21%邁進。
Jeffrey J. Cote - President, CEO & Director
Jeffrey J. Cote - President, CEO & Director
Yes. Just adding a little bit to what Paul said, I mean, I don't want to go -- I don't want to be missed that our third quarter guide would be in the 20s on a constant currency basis. And so although volume has the biggest variable impact on margins, foreign exchange is a meaningful impact on the margin profile of the business, which obviously is way outside of our control.
是的。只是在保羅所說的基礎上補充一點,我的意思是,我不想去 - 我不想錯過我們的第三季度指南按固定匯率計算將在 20 多歲。因此,儘管交易量對利潤率的可變影響最大,但外匯對業務的利潤率有著重大影響,這顯然超出了我們的控制範圍。
On the supply chain side, we're starting to -- we talked about the fact that we're starting to see supply chain challenges date considerably. And I would say that's pretty broad-based. Remember, though, that we have long-term engagement with our customers, we, therefore, have long-term structure with our supply chain.
在供應鏈方面,我們開始討論這樣一個事實,即我們開始看到供應鏈挑戰相當嚴重。我想說這是非常廣泛的。但請記住,我們與客戶有長期合作,因此我們的供應鏈有長期結構。
So when we see supply chains normalize, that doesn't result in immediate impact in terms of pricing on the supply side, but it's something that we do extraordinarily well. We've demonstrated over decades that once we get to a more normalized operating environment, we can continue to show significant productivity in terms of our overall cost structure that will drive margin profile in the business.
因此,當我們看到供應鏈正常化時,這不會對供應方的定價產生立竿見影的影響,但這是我們做得非常好的事情。幾十年來,我們已經證明,一旦我們進入更加規範化的運營環境,我們就可以繼續在整體成本結構方面展現出顯著的生產力,從而推動業務利潤率的提高。
We've been over the last 3 years in an environment where we've been challenged on that and it's completely been turned upside down what has been productivity year-over-year has been inflation year-over-year. And so in 2023, we're anticipating continued inflation on our COGS cost structure, but hopefully, we'll start to bend that cost curve as we go into '24 and '25 to get back to a more normal business model of productivity quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. Thanks for the question.
在過去的三年裡,我們一直處於這樣一個環境中,我們在這方面受到了挑戰,而且生產率逐年上升和通貨膨脹完全顛倒了。因此,到 2023 年,我們預計 COGS 成本結構將持續通脹,但希望在進入 24 和 25 年時我們將開始彎曲該成本曲線,以回到更正常的生產力季度商業模式-環比和同比。謝謝你的提問。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Shreyas Patil with Wolfe Research.
下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Shreyas Patil。
Shreyas Patil - Research Analyst
Shreyas Patil - Research Analyst
Yes, maybe just following up on one of the other questions earlier. So Q3, you're guiding to 20% margin ex currency. We are seeing auto production improving some of the industrial end market headwinds that you're experiencing at the moment are potentially going to moderate as we look out to next year.
是的,也許只是跟進之前的其他問題之一。因此,第三季度,您指導的保證金為 20%(不含貨幣)。我們看到汽車生產正在改善,目前正在經歷的一些工業終端市場逆風可能會在我們展望明年時有所緩解。
And so clearly, the volume should be a tailwind as you get back to 21% margin. But just maybe on this topic of supply chain, how do we think about when that starts to benefit the business? And are there any other puts and takes to think about as we look towards that 21% margin level?
很明顯,當你的利潤率回到 21% 時,成交量應該是一個順風車。但也許就供應鏈這個話題而言,我們如何考慮何時開始對企業有利?當我們展望 21% 的保證金水平時,是否還需要考慮其他看跌期權和看跌期權?
Jeffrey J. Cote - President, CEO & Director
Jeffrey J. Cote - President, CEO & Director
Yes. So I'll take a crack head and Paul, you can add and correct me where I get it wrong. But -- we're starting -- the impact in terms of cost structure associated with inflation and what would normally be productivity for us has been improving, right? So if you look back to 2021, '22, where it was a very significant impact in terms of negative productivity in our cost structure. That's coming down at '23. And as I had mentioned to the prior question, we would expect that to continue to improve as we go into 2024.
是的。所以我會認真思考,保羅,你可以在我出錯的地方添加並糾正我。但是,我們正在開始,與通貨膨脹相關的成本結構以及通常對我們來說生產力的影響一直在改善,對吧?因此,如果您回顧 2021 年、22 年,我們的成本結構中的生產力負值對我們產生了非常重大的影響。這個數字將於 23 年下降。正如我在上一個問題中提到的,我們預計隨著 2024 年的到來,這一情況將繼續改善。
The volume in Q3 specifically is down pretty dramatically, right? So what we're seeing from a margin standpoint, constant currency will be at the 20%, right? So that shows improvement. That's with more foreign exchange headwind and with a decline in overall margin -- or excuse me, a decline in overall volume, which impacts margin. So listen, we're going to continue to aim towards the target profitability that we've identified. But given the environment that we're working in, associated with the volume decline, second quarter to third quarter and also the margin headwind we experienced associated with foreign exchange, we are marching toward the outcome that we've aimed for just it's taking longer given the other factors that we've talked about.
第三季度的銷量下降得相當厲害,對嗎?那麼我們從保證金的角度來看,固定匯率將是 20%,對嗎?這表明有所改善。這是因為外匯逆風加大,總體利潤率下降——或者對不起,總體交易量下降,這會影響利潤率。所以聽著,我們將繼續致力於實現我們已確定的目標盈利能力。但考慮到我們所處的環境,與第二季度到第三季度的交易量下降以及我們經歷的與外匯相關的利潤逆風相關,我們正在朝著我們目標的結果邁進,只是需要更長的時間考慮到我們已經討論過的其他因素。
Operator
Operator
And the next question comes from Joe Giordano with JD (sic) [TD] Cowen.
下一個問題來自 Joe Giordano 和 JD(原文如此)[TD] Cowen。
Joseph Craig Giordano - MD & Senior Analyst
Joseph Craig Giordano - MD & Senior Analyst
Can you talk about China specifically in the quarter? I know last quarter, like the mix was unfavorable given where the production was coming from. And I know this quarter, Tesla had a big production in China. So can you talk about how that looked and what you guys did? And maybe comment about the structural dynamics in China and like how you see that playing out, like who's going to take share and like what the opportunity is for you at those players?
您能具體談談本季度的中國嗎?我知道上個季度,考慮到生產的來源,混合是不利的。據我所知,這個季度,特斯拉在中國有大量生產。那麼你能談談它的外觀以及你們做了什麼嗎?也許可以評論一下中國的結構性動態,比如你如何看待這種情況的發展,比如誰將分享份額,以及你在這些參與者身上有什麼機會?
Jeffrey J. Cote - President, CEO & Director
Jeffrey J. Cote - President, CEO & Director
Yes, absolutely. So I think the folks know that we had planned a trip to China, we were there in May. We talked about that a little bit in some other venues associated with investor calls or conferences and so forth. That was the first time that we were there as a management team in 3 years. China has always been fast. That has accelerated during periods of COVID. So I would say that maintaining our presence there is critically important, continuing to accelerate our pace of change with those customers is incredibly important. The Chinese companies like BYD, as an example, have gone from aspirations to win in the China market to aspirations to win in the global market. So engaging with those customers is incredibly for us as a company -- as a global company.
是的,一點沒錯。所以我想大家都知道我們計劃去中國旅行,我們五月份就去了那裡。我們在其他一些與投資者電話會議或會議等相關的場合對此進行了一些討論。這是我們三年來第一次以管理團隊的身份出席會議。中國的速度一直都很快。在新冠疫情期間,這種情況加速了。因此,我想說,保持我們在那裡的存在至關重要,繼續加快我們與這些客戶的變革步伐非常重要。以比亞迪為例,中國企業已經從求勝中國市場轉向求勝全球市場。因此,對於我們作為一家全球性公司來說,與這些客戶的互動非常重要。
And we have good relationships there. BYD tends to be fairly vertically integrated, but they have a desire to work with multinational companies as they aspire to grow outside of regions. So engagement with our customers in China continues to be important. We're seeing some really good success. You know how our business has grown there, and we'll continue to focus on it.
我們在那裡有良好的關係。比亞迪傾向於相當垂直整合,但他們希望與跨國公司合作,因為他們渴望在地區之外發展。因此,與中國客戶的互動仍然很重要。我們看到了一些非常好的成功。您知道我們的業務在那裡如何發展,我們將繼續關注它。
Specific to an element of in China, I would say they're not growing right now, right? They're not growing dramatically, and that's inconsistent with where things have been over the last decade where we saw very strong growth in China. So overall, the market isn't growing. The government is doing a lot to try to convert from a more government-stimulated economy to consumer, the challenges that consumers are spending all their money on travel because they were cooped up for 3 years as opposed to buying durable goods. And products that our products would go into. So we're seeing weakness in the overall China market as a result of their economy and what's going on there.
具體到中國的一個因素,我想說他們現在沒有增長,對嗎?它們的增長並不顯著,這與過去十年我們在中國看到的非常強勁的增長情況不一致。因此總體而言,市場並沒有增長。政府正在做很多事情,試圖將經濟從政府更多刺激的經濟轉向消費者經濟,消費者面臨的挑戰是,他們把所有的錢都花在旅行上,因為他們被關了三年,而不是購買耐用品。以及我們的產品將涉及的產品。因此,我們看到由於經濟和那裡發生的事情而導致整個中國市場疲軟。
And one other point that I would bring up, which we talked about last call is the pivot in the automotive market from local to multinational. That's sort of stabilized around the 47% rate. So if you were to look at Q2 of last year, the multinationals had 51% market share this year, they have 47%. That 47% is consistent with where it was in the first quarter of this year.
我要提出的另一點,我們在上次電話會議中討論過,是汽車市場從本土市場轉向跨國市場的樞紐。這個比率穩定在 47% 左右。所以如果你看看去年第二季度,跨國公司的市場份額是 51%,今年他們的市場份額是 47%。這 47% 與今年第一季度的水平一致。
Now there was more of an impact in the first quarter because first quarter of '22, they had 54% market share. So there was a big decline from 54% to 47%, but it's stable -- it seems to have stabilized around 47%. Our modeling, which suggested there is a couple of hundred basis points of continued erosion there, which will have an impact on our business, but we don't see it going to 0. It's a desire to [buy] electric vehicles, given mandates associated with the license plate issuance. It's a lot easier to get a license plate in China for an electric vehicle than it is a combustion engine. And therefore, consumers are buying electric vehicles, and they are just larger options, a bigger number of options on electric vehicles and local brands versus multinational. So hopefully, that adds some color and provide some help to you.
現在第一季度的影響更大,因為 22 年第一季度,他們擁有 54% 的市場份額。所以從 54% 下降到 47%,但是很穩定——似乎穩定在 47% 左右。我們的模型表明,那裡有幾百個基點的持續侵蝕,這將對我們的業務產生影響,但我們認為它不會變成 0。鑑於授權,人們希望[購買]電動汽車與車牌發放有關。在中國獲得電動汽車牌照比內燃機汽車容易得多。因此,消費者購買電動汽車,他們只是有更多的選擇,與跨國品牌相比,電動汽車和本土品牌有更多的選擇。希望這能為您增添一些色彩並提供一些幫助。
Joseph Craig Giordano - MD & Senior Analyst
Joseph Craig Giordano - MD & Senior Analyst
It does. And just...
確實如此。而且只是...
Operator
Operator
And the next question comes from Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.
下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Samik Chatterjee。
Unidentified Analyst
Unidentified Analyst
This is (inaudible) McMillan on behalf of Samik Chatterjee. So I just wanted to touch on electrification a little bit more. Can you talk about how Sensata is thinking of investing in electrification opportunities in nonautomotive end markets. To the extent will this $2 billion of electrification revenue target be associated with electrification opportunities in these places?
我是(聽不清)麥克米蘭代表薩米克·查特吉。所以我只是想多談談電氣化。您能否談談森薩塔如何考慮投資非汽車終端市場的電氣化機會?這 20 億美元的電氣化收入目標在多大程度上與這些地方的電氣化機會相關?
Jeffrey J. Cote - President, CEO & Director
Jeffrey J. Cote - President, CEO & Director
Yes. Thanks for the question because it's -- I think it is a little bit misunderstood. We think of electrification very holistically. And only about half of our $2 billion target for 2026 will come from the light vehicle automotive market. There will be other areas that we will continue to play, and we're seeing very significant success in terms of new business wins, but also growth, right? So you think of electrification in the broader heavy vehicle market, think of electrification in terms of charging infrastructure for electric vehicles and broader industrial applications as well as what we talked about earlier, I think we got a question from Chris on Dynapower and the inverter market. So all of this electrification will require hardening of the grid. It doesn't do the environment any good if we switch to electrification and we generate electric power with gas or other greenhouse gas emitting applications.
是的。謝謝你提出這個問題,因為我認為這有點被誤解了。我們非常全面地考慮電氣化。我們 2026 年 20 億美元目標中只有大約一半將來自輕型汽車市場。我們還將繼續涉足其他領域,我們在贏得新業務方面取得了非常顯著的成功,而且在增長方面也取得了巨大的成功,對嗎?因此,您會想到更廣泛的重型車輛市場中的電氣化,想到電動汽車充電基礎設施和更廣泛的工業應用方面的電氣化以及我們之前討論的內容,我想我們收到了 Chris 關於 Dynapower 和逆變器市場的問題。因此,所有這些電氣化都需要加強電網。如果我們改用電氣化並通過天然氣或其他溫室氣體排放應用來發電,這對環境沒有任何好處。
So the move towards renewable energy is definitely an area where we're investing that we'll see the other half of the $1 billion come from across all of those other end markets outside of light vehicle. And great progress. We've talked about the fact last year of our $1 billion of new business win 70% of them were in the area of electrification. And we're seeing a similar trend in terms of mix of the new business wins this year versus where we were last year. So that's the good success in market associated with the capabilities we've developed.
因此,向可再生能源的發展絕對是我們投資的一個領域,我們將看到 10 億美元的另一半來自輕型汽車以外的所有其他終端市場。並且取得了巨大的進步。我們已經談到,去年我們贏得的 10 億美元新業務中 70% 是在電氣化領域。與去年相比,我們今年在新業務勝利的組合方面看到了類似的趨勢。這就是我們開發的能力在市場上取得的巨大成功。
Operator
Operator
And the next question comes from Chris Snyder with UBS.
下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的克里斯·斯奈德。
Christopher M. Snyder - Analyst
Christopher M. Snyder - Analyst
So I understand the FX impact, but are margins facing the underlying business proving a bit more significant than you would have thought 12 months ago because when we look at the Q3 guide and we take the high end, even if we add back the FX impact, it doesn't seem to show much year-on-year margin improvement for the underlying operations despite all the actions over the last year to try to get these margins higher?
因此,我理解外匯影響,但事實證明,基礎業務面臨的利潤比您 12 個月前想像的要大一些,因為當我們查看第三季度指南時,即使我們重新添加外匯影響,我們也會選擇高端,儘管去年採取了所有措施試圖提高這些利潤率,但基礎業務的利潤率似乎並沒有出現太大的同比改善?
Paul S. Vasington - Executive VP & CFO
Paul S. Vasington - Executive VP & CFO
I would have to say that the improvement in the margin is coming largely from the core operations of the business. There is some improvement as we go from Q2 to Q3 in terms of we mix up, particularly in our Clean Energy segment. But largely, this is around executing on driving pricing about the inflationary costs for experience in controlling our costs, getting better throughput through the manufacturing sites, managing the inflation pressures on labor with increased automation, all those things are driving the improved margins. So it is all really fundamental blocking and tackling, the things that we do really well in terms of driving cost out of the business. And as -- like I said before, as the volumes start to improve, we will see significant incremental margins.
我不得不說,利潤率的改善主要來自於業務的核心業務。從第二季度到第三季度,我們的混合情況有所改善,特別是在清潔能源領域。但在很大程度上,這是圍繞控製成本的經驗推動通脹成本的定價,通過製造工廠獲得更好的吞吐量,通過提高自動化來管理勞動力的通脹壓力,所有這些都在推動利潤率的提高。因此,這都是非常根本的阻止和解決,我們在降低業務成本方面做得非常好。正如我之前所說,隨著銷量開始改善,我們將看到顯著的利潤增量。
And the other thing that I would call out is our Industrial business, which is one of our most profitable, is down significantly year-over-year this year due to weak end markets. We talked about the weak PMI, that's driving a contraction in that end market. And when that market comes back, we'll see significant volume improvement and margin improvement.
我要指出的另一件事是我們的工業業務,這是我們最賺錢的業務之一,由於終端市場疲軟,今年同比大幅下降。我們談到了疲軟的 PMI,這導致了終端市場的收縮。當市場恢復時,我們將看到銷量和利潤率的顯著改善。
Operator
Operator
And this does conclude our question and answer session. I would like to turn the floor now to Jacob Sayer for any closing comments.
我們的問答環節到此結束。我現在請雅各布·塞耶 (Jacob Sayer) 徵求結束意見。
Jacob A. Sayer - VP of Finance & CFO of Performance Sensing Gbu
Jacob A. Sayer - VP of Finance & CFO of Performance Sensing Gbu
Thank you, Keith. I'd like to thank everyone for joining us this morning. Sensata will be participating in the Goldman Sachs Technology Investor Conference on September 5 out in San Francisco. As Jeff mentioned, we'll also be hosting an investor event the morning of September 27 in New York City. This will be held both in person and virtually. Registration for that event is now open, and the link can be found on our Investor Relations website under Events.
謝謝你,基思。我要感謝大家今天早上加入我們。森薩塔 (Sensata) 將於 9 月 5 日參加在舊金山舉行的高盛技術投資者會議。正如傑夫提到的,我們還將於 9 月 27 日上午在紐約舉辦投資者活動。這將以現場和虛擬方式舉行。該活動的註冊現已開放,鏈接可以在我們的投資者關係網站的“活動”下找到。
We look forward to seeing you at one of those events or on our third quarter earnings call at the end of October. Thanks for joining us this morning and for your interest in Sensata. Keith, you can now end the call.
我們期待在其中一場活動或 10 月底的第三季度財報電話會議上見到您。感謝您今天早上加入我們以及您對森薩塔的興趣。基思,你現在可以結束通話了。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.
謝謝。會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開線路。