SouthState Bank Corp (SSB) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for standing by. My name is Eric, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the SouthState Corporation Q2 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) I'd now like to turn the call over to Will Matthews. Please go ahead.

    感謝您的支持。我叫 Eric,今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。現在,我歡迎大家參加 SouthState Corporation 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。(操作員指示)現在我想將電話轉給威爾馬修斯。請繼續。

  • William Matthews - Chief Financial Officer

    William Matthews - Chief Financial Officer

  • Good morning and welcome to SouthState's second-quarter 2025 earnings call. This is Will Matthews, and I'm here with John Corbett, Steve Young, and Jeremy Lucas.

    早上好,歡迎參加 SouthState 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。我是威爾·馬修斯,和我一起在場的還有約翰·科比特、史蒂夫·楊和傑里米·盧卡斯。

  • We'll follow our typical pattern of brief remarks followed by Q&A. I'll refer you to the earnings release and investor presentation under the Investor Relations tab of our website.

    我們將遵循典型的簡短發言然後進行問答的模式。我將向您推薦我們網站「投資者關係」標籤下的收益報告和投資者介紹。

  • Before we begin our remarks, I want to remind you that the comments we make may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Federal securities' laws and regulations. Any such forward-looking statements we may make are subject to the Safe Harbor rules. Please review the forward-looking disclaimer and Safe Harbor language in the press release and presentation for more information about our forward-looking statements and risk and uncertainties, which may affect us.

    在我們開始發言之前,我想提醒您,我們所發表的評論可能包括聯邦證券法律法規所定義的前瞻性陳述。我們所做的任何此類前瞻性聲明均受安全港規則的約束。請查看新聞稿和簡報中的前瞻性免責聲明和安全港語言,以獲取有關我們的前瞻性陳述以及可能影響我們的風險和不確定性的更多資訊。

  • Now I'll turn the call over to you, John.

    現在我將把電話交給你,約翰。

  • John Corbett - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Corbett - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Will. Good morning, everybody. As always, thank you for joining us.

    謝謝你,威爾。大家早安。一如既往,感謝您的加入我們。

  • In January we closed the Independent financial transaction, a deal that we projected to be 27% accretive to our earnings per share. In the first quarter, the bank's earnings accelerated just as we forecast, but loan growth stalled with all the economic uncertainty.

    一月份,我們完成了獨立金融交易,預計該交易將使我們的每股收益增加 27%。第一季度,該銀行的利潤正如我們預測的那樣加速成長,但由於經濟不確定性,貸款成長停滯。

  • Remember though, we mentioned in April that our lone pipelines were growing significantly in the spring. As you can see in the deck, the pipeline growth in the first quarter led to a 57% increase in loan production, from around $2 billion a quarter to over $3 billion in the second quarter, and that led to solid loan growth.

    不過請記住,我們在四月份提到過,我們的單獨管道在春季顯著增長。正如您在簡報中看到的,第一季的管道成長導致貸款產量增加了 57%,從每季約 20 億美元增加到第二季的 30 多億美元,這帶來了穩健的貸款成長。

  • In Texas and Colorado specifically, loan production increased 35%, and non-PCD loans grew by about $200 million. The lone momentum in Texas and Colorado occurred in the same quarter that we successfully completed the conversion of the computer systems.

    具體來說,在德州和科羅拉多州,貸款發放量增加了 35%,非 PCD 貸款增加了約 2 億美元。德克薩斯州和科羅拉多州的唯一動力出現在我們成功完成電腦系統轉換的同一季度。

  • I'd be remiss if I didn't recognize and thank our Texas and Colorado team for their great work, navigating through the conversion. It was tremendous teamwork all around, including 400 people who left the Southeast for three weeks to serve as ambassadors to help with the transition. And a special thank you to all the operations, IT, risk, finance, and HR teams that numbered over 1,000 people who made this conversion one of the best we've ever done.

    如果我不認可並感謝我們的德州和科羅拉多州團隊在轉換過程中所做的出色工作,那我就是失職了。這是一項極其出色的團隊合作,其中包括 400 人離開東南部,在三週內擔任大使,協助過渡。也要特別感謝所有營運、IT、風險、財務和人力資源團隊,他們的人數超過 1,000 人,使這次轉換成為我們做過的最好的轉換之一。

  • Now that the Independent financial integration is complete, we've had some time to reflect on the progress that we've made. Our goal has always been to build a company in the best geography in the country with the best scale, and to build the best business model. We believe that those three priorities will ultimately yield the best shareholder value.

    現在獨立財務整合已經完成,我們有時間反思我們所取得的進展。我們的目標一直是在全國最好的地理位置建立一家規模最大的公司,並建立最好的商業模式。我們相信,這三個優先事項最終將產生最佳的股東價值。

  • By adding Texas and Colorado to the franchise, we're now firmly established in the fastest growing markets in the country. And at $66 billion in assets, we've achieved a scale that's enabled us to make the necessary investments in technology and risk management, while simultaneously producing top quartile financial returns.

    透過將德州和科羅拉多州納入特許經營範圍,我們現在已經牢牢佔據了全國成長最快的市場。我們的資產規模達到 660 億美元,這使我們能夠在技術和風險管理方面進行必要的投資,同時獲得最高四分位的財務回報。

  • Just look at the second quarter. Adjusted for merger costs, SouthState's return on assets was 1.45% and our return on tangible common equity was nearly 20%.

    只看第二季。經合併成本調整後,SouthState 的資產回報率為 1.45%,有形普通股權益回報率接近 20%。

  • And finally, our entrepreneurial business model is producing a superior customer experience and a superior employee experience. Our retail bank ranks in the top quartile of J.D. Power's Net Promoter Score, and the scores are improving every year.

    最後,我們的創業商業模式正在創造卓越的客戶體驗和卓越的員工體驗。我們的零售銀行在 J.D. Power 淨推薦值排名中位居前四分之一,分數每年都在增加。

  • Our commercial and middle market bank collectively ranked in the top 5% for award recognition in 2025 of the 600 banks tracked by Coalition Greenwich. And our level of employee engagement ranks in the top 10% of financial institutions in America according to this year's employee surveys.

    在聯盟格林威治追蹤的 600 家銀行中,我們的商業和中型市場銀行在 2025 年獎項認可度排名中位列前 5%。根據今年的員工調查,我們的員工敬業度在美國金融機構中排名前 10%。

  • So we built a team of professionals that is talented and engaged with the heart for serving each other and serving our clients. And it's a team that's delivering top financial returns for our shareholders.

    因此,我們組建了一支才華橫溢、全心全意為彼此服務、為客戶服務的專業團隊。這個團隊為我們的股東帶來了最高的財務回報。

  • We've now put the Independent financial conversion in the rearview mirror. And as we look ahead to the prospects of an improving yield curve, we're in a great position to focus on and accelerate the bank's organic growth. Given the strength of our earnings growth and our capital levels, the Board of Directors felt comfortable this week to increase our dividend by 11%.

    現在,我們已將獨立金融轉型拋諸腦後。展望殖利率曲線改善的前景,我們處於有利地位,可以集中精力並加速銀行的有機成長。鑑於我們獲利成長強勁和資本水準高,董事會本周放心將股息提高 11%。

  • Will, I'll turn it back to you to walk through the moving parts on the balance sheet and income statement.

    威爾,我會把內容轉回給你,讓你詳細解說資產負債表和損益表的各個部分。

  • William Matthews - Chief Financial Officer

    William Matthews - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, John. As always, I'll hit a few highlights focused on operating performance and adjusted metrics, and then we'll move into Q&A.

    謝謝你,約翰。像往常一樣,我將重點介紹一些有關營運績效和調整後指標的亮點,然後我們進入問答環節。

  • We had another good quarter with PPNR of $314 million and $2.30 in EPS. Net interest income grew by $33 million over Q1, only $2 million of which was due to higher accretion. We continued to perform well on cost of deposits, which came in at 1.84%, a 5-basis-point improvement from Q1.

    我們又度過了一個良好的季度,PPNR 為 3.14 億美元,每股收益為 2.30 美元。淨利息收入較第一季成長 3,300 萬美元,其中只有 200 萬美元是由於增值額較高。我們的存款成本持續表現良好,達到 1.84%,比第一季提高了 5 個基點。

  • Our loan yields of 6.33% improved 8 basis points from Q1 and were approximately 22 basis points below our new origination rate for the second quarter. Loan yields in the quarter also benefited from early payoff on acquired loans, including some PCD loans.

    我們的貸款收益率為 6.33%,較第一季提高了 8 個基點,比第二季的新發放利率低約 22 個基點。本季的貸款收益率也受惠於所收購貸款(包括部分 PCD 貸款)的提前還款。

  • Excluding $14 million in early payoff accretion, loan yields of 6.20% were 1-basis-point higher than Q1. And loan yields excluding all accretion were up 7 basis points from Q1.

    不包括 1,400 萬美元的提前還款增量,貸款收益率為 6.20%,比第一季高出 1 個基點。扣除所有增值部分的貸款收益率較第一季上升了 7 個基點。

  • Additionally, the second quarter had a full quarters' benefit of the Q1 securities portfolio restructuring, driving the yield on securities 51 basis points higher. So to recap, and you can see this in the waterfall slide in the deck, of the 17 basis points improvement in the NIM, approximately 5 basis points of NIM improvement was due to the lower cost of deposits. 6 basis points was due to loan coupon yields, and 7 basis points was due to a full quarter of the securities portfolio restructuring.

    此外,第二季度受惠於第一季證券組合重組的整整一個季度,帶動證券收益率上升 51 個基點。所以總結一下,你可以在幻燈片中看到,在 NIM 提高的 17 個基點中,大約有 5 個基點是由於存款成本降低,6 個基點是由於貸款票面收益率,7 個基點是由於整個季度的證券投資組合重組。

  • As always, Steve will give some updated margin guidance in our Q&A. Non-interest income of $87 million was similar to Q1 levels, with improvement in our correspondent business offset by a slight decline in our mortgage revenue. On the expense side, NIE of $351 million was at the low-end of our guidance, and our second-quarter efficiency ratio of 49.1% brought the six-month year-to-date ratio below 50%.

    像往常一樣,史蒂夫將在我們的問答中提供一些更新的保證金指導。非利息收入為 8,700 萬美元,與第一季水準相似,但代理業務的改善被抵押貸款收入的輕微下降所抵消。在支出方面,3.51 億美元的 NIE 處於我們預期的低端,而我們第二季的效率比率為 49.1%,使今年六個月迄今的比率低於 50%。

  • Credit costs remain low with the $7.5 million provision expense, essentially matching our 6 basis points in that charge-offs. We had one additional day one PCD charge off of $17 million on an acquired independent relationship. This is an as of acquisition date impairment where there were conditions in existence at the January 1 closing date that we became aware of during the quarter.

    信貸成本仍然很低,撥備費用為 750 萬美元,基本上與我們的沖銷金額中的 6 個基點相符。我們在第一天就從收購的獨立關係中額外扣除了 1700 萬美元的 PCD 費用。這是截至收購日的減值,其中存在我們在本季度內意識到的 1 月 1 日結束日期的情況。

  • We continue to have strong loss absorption capacity. Asset quality remains stable and payment performance remains very good.

    我們持續擁有強大的損失吸收能力。資產品質保持穩定,支付表現保持良好。

  • Our capital position improved again with CET1 and TBV per share growing nicely. It's worth noting that tangible book value per share of $51.96 is up 8.5% from the year ago level, even with the dilutive impacts of the IBTX merger. Our TCE ratio is also higher than its June 2024 level.

    我們的資本狀況再次改善,每股 CET1 和 TBV 均實現良好成長。值得注意的是,即使受到 IBTX 合併的稀釋影響,每股有形帳面價值 51.96 美元仍比去年同期上漲 8.5%。我們的TCE比率也高於2024年6月的水準。

  • Additionally, our strong capital and reserve position and the rate at which we're growing capital continues to provide us with good capital optionality. That includes this quarter's 11% dividend increase and other options, including the potential to repurchase shares opportunistically should we choose to do so.

    此外,我們強大的資本和儲備狀況以及資本增長速度繼續為我們提供良好的資本選擇。其中包括本季 11% 的股息成長和其他選擇,包括如果我們選擇這樣做的話,有機會回購股票。

  • Operator, we'll now take questions.

    接線員,我們現在來回答問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Catherine Mealor, KBW.

    (操作員指示) Catherine Mealor,KBW。

  • Catherine Mealor - Analyst

    Catherine Mealor - Analyst

  • Thanks, good morning. I thought we could just start on your outlook for the margin. It was just really great across the board on securities, low yields, deposits. We got everything all at once.

    謝謝,早安。我想我們可以開始討論一下您對利潤率的展望。在證券、低收益和存款方面,它的表現確實非常出色。我們一下子就得到了一切。

  • So just curious if you think there's still upward -- I mean, we're now at the top end of the range that I would have expected. Is there the ability to still expand the margin from here? And just get -- yeah, just curious for your outlet for the margin in the back half of the year. Thanks.

    所以我只是好奇,您是否認為還有上升空間——我的意思是,我們現在處於我預期範圍的最高端。從現在起是否還有能力擴大利潤率?是的,我只是好奇您今年下半年的利潤率是多少。謝謝。

  • Stephen Young - Chief Strategy Officer

    Stephen Young - Chief Strategy Officer

  • Yeah. Sure, Catherine. This is Steve. Yeah, like you mentioned, the net interest margin in the quarter is very strong at 4.02%. I think we have a slide on page 12 that talks about that.

    是的。當然,凱瑟琳。這是史蒂夫。是的,正如您所說,本季的淨利差非常強勁,達到 4.02%。我認為第 12 頁的幻燈片討論了這個問題。

  • Our guidance this last quarter was between 3.80% and 3.90%, so significant beat. Approximately half of that beat related to our expectations of loan coupons, securities, deposit costs, as you mentioned, is higher than better than we thought.

    我們對上一季的預期是 3.80% 至 3.90% 之間,因此大幅超出預期。正如您所說,其中大約有一半與我們對貸款息票、證券、存款成本的預期有關,比我們想像的要高。

  • And then half of it related to our expectation of loan accretion, which was a little bit higher than we thought due to some higher PCD accretion from early payoffs. And you can see that in our PCD balances.

    其中一半與我們對貸款成長的預期有關,由於早期還款導致 PCD 成長較高,因此貸款成長預期比我們想像的要高一些。您可以在我們的 PCD 餘額中看到這一點。

  • Page 13, as Will mentioned in his opening comments, he describes the change quarter-over-quarter of NIM. And just I think the highlight are all the loan coupon increase, security coupon increase, and the cost of deposit. So that that makes up the 17 basis points quarter-to-quarter.

    第 13 頁,正如威爾在開場白中提到的,他描述了 NIM 的季度環比變化。我認為亮點是所有貸款息票增加、擔保息票增加以及存款成本增加。因此,季度環比增長了 17 個基點。

  • As we think about the guidance, to be simply, there's really no significant change to the guidance as we see it. Sometimes as we look at these quarter-to-quarters and as it relates to accretion, sometimes, it's looking at the portrait versus looking at the movie.

    當我們考慮指導時,簡單地說,我們認為指導實際上沒有重大變化。有時,當我們觀察這些季度與季度之間的關係時,由於它與累積有關,有時,我們是在看肖像而不是看電影。

  • And I think the portrait from quarter-to-quarter can get a little noisy. But the movie is where we're going to continue to guide you towards. And that's over the next 18 to 24 months.

    我認為季度間的肖像可能會有點吵雜。但我們將繼續引導您走向電影。這是未來 18 到 24 個月的情況。

  • But as we think about the assumptions, the main assumptions around that are the size of interest earning assets, the rate forecast, and then lastly, the loan accretion. For us, the interest earning assets, we reiterate our guide from last quarter that we would have average earning assets to be roughly $58 billion for the full year in 2025. And then in the fourth quarter average, we'd exit somewhere in the $59 billion. That's a mid-, single-digit growth rate and we see that going into 2026.

    但是當我們考慮這些假設時,主要的假設是生息資產的規模、利率預測,以及最後的貸款成長。對我們來說,對於生息資產,我們重申上個季度的指導,即到 2025 年全年,平均生息資產約為 580 億美元。然後在第四季度平均而言,我們的退出金額將在 590 億美元左右。這是一個中等個位數的成長率,我們預計這一成長率將持續到 2026 年。

  • But as John mentioned in his prepared remarks, we'll see how the growth outlook evolves over time. So really no change in guidance to the interest earning assets.

    但正如約翰在準備好的演講中提到的那樣,我們將看到成長前景隨著時間的推移如何演變。因此,對生息資產的指導其實沒有改變。

  • On the rate forecast we just, we don't see rate cuts this year. So we're trying to keep it simple and then we can talk later about interest sensitivity.

    根據我們的利率預測,我們認為今年不會降息。因此,我們試圖保持簡單,然後我們可以稍後再討論利益敏感度。

  • And then accretion, loan accretion based on our models, we would expect loan rate accretion to total approximately $200 million, maybe slightly higher than that, for 2025, of which we've recognized $125 million, so far, this year.

    然後是增值,根據我們的模型,貸款增值,我們預計到 2025 年貸款利率增值總額將達到約 2 億美元,可能略高於此,其中今年到目前為止我們已經確認了 1.25 億美元。

  • So $200 million in total for 2025, but we recognized $125 million. So that indicates we have between $75 million, $80 million, $85 million left or so for this year.

    因此,2025 年的總金額為 2 億美元,但我們確認為 1.25 億美元。這顯示我們今年還剩下約 7,500 萬美元、8,000 萬美元、8,500 萬美元。

  • And then we expect in our models, based on prepayments and others, we expect about $150 million in 2026 of accretion. So as a reminder, we have about $393 million left of the discount.

    然後,我們根據預付款和其他因素,在我們的模型中預計 2026 年將增加約 1.5 億美元。提醒一下,我們還剩下大約 3.93 億美元的折扣。

  • So anyway, based on all those assumptions, we'd continue to expect NIM to be between $380 million and $390 million for the remainder of the year and to drift higher in 2026. That's a combination of the legacy SouthState loan book continues to reprice up. So no change to any of the guidance that we talked about, except that if obviously, if rates or if our growth rate got higher, then certainly net interest income would move higher.

    因此,無論如何,基於所有這些假設,我們將繼續預計今年剩餘時間內 NIM 將在 3.8 億美元至 3.9 億美元之間,並在 2026 年進一步走高。這是由於 SouthState 遺留貸款帳簿繼續重新定價所致。因此,我們所談論的任何指導都沒有變化,但如果利率或我們的成長率明顯上升,那麼淨利息收入肯定會上升。

  • Catherine Mealor - Analyst

    Catherine Mealor - Analyst

  • That makes sense. Okay. And so within that, so it seems -- I guess within that $75 million to $80 million of accretion left in the back half of the year that -- I guess that's just your base level so it doesn't assume any accelerated accretion but we've gotten that the past two quarters. So we may hit that, but that's just your base levels.

    這很有道理。好的。因此,看起來 - 我猜在下半年剩下的 7500 萬至 8000 萬美元的增值範圍內 - 我猜這只是你的基準水平,因此它不假設任何加速增值,但我們在過去兩個季度已經實現了這一目標。因此我們可能會達到這個水平,但這只是你的基本水平。

  • Stephen Young - Chief Strategy Officer

    Stephen Young - Chief Strategy Officer

  • Yeah, our base level, it's hard to tell some of these things. Like last quarter, there was a fair amount of PCD.

    是的,從我們的基礎層面來說,有些事情很難說。與上一季一樣,PCD 數量相當多。

  • If you look at our PCD loans that were down $225 million, that was higher than we expected, which, it's a good thing. It affects accretion. Certainly, affects the allowance too.

    如果你看看我們的 PCD 貸款下降了 2.25 億美元,這比我們預期的要高,這是一件好事。它會影響吸積。當然,也會影響津貼。

  • But ultimately, we would not expect those PCDs. Some of that is just our people resolving some of those -- as we get our hands around the IBTX portfolio.

    但最終,我們不會期待那些 PCD。其中有些問題只是我們的人員在解決——因為我們掌握了 IBTX 投資組合。

  • Catherine Mealor - Analyst

    Catherine Mealor - Analyst

  • Great. That makes sense. Okay. And maybe one more on the growth outlook, the origination, the slide that you where you show origination, it seems like you've really got some momentum in the origination volume, which is so great to see.

    偉大的。這很有道理。好的。也許還有一點關於成長前景、起源、您展示起源的幻燈片,看起來您在起源量方面確實獲得了一些動力,這真是太好了。

  • So just curious to figure growth out. I mean, I know you said average earning assets are still heading towards $59 billion but is it fair to assume an improvement in the bottom line organic growth rate in the back half of the year, maybe, closer towards that mid- to high-single digit levels?

    所以只是好奇想知道成長情況。我的意思是,我知道您說平均獲利資產仍將達到 590 億美元,但是否可以假設下半年底線有機成長率會有所提高,或許更接近中高個位數水準?

  • John Corbett - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Corbett - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Hey, Catherine. This is John. I think we guided to mid-single digits for the remainder of the year, and that's where we wound up in the second quarter, in the mid-single-digit range.

    嘿,凱瑟琳。這是約翰。我認為我們預計今年剩餘時間的銷售額將達到中等個位數,而第二季的銷售額也達到了中等個位數。

  • But this played out the way we talked about in April, with that pipeline increasing as much as it did, it translated into a really big spike in production, and that led to the loan growth. And I'd say going forward, we're getting more bullish, but we don't know for sure.

    但正如我們在四月份討論的那樣,隨著管道數量的增加,產量大幅增加,進而帶動貸款成長。我想說,展望未來,我們會更加樂觀,但我們還不確定。

  • The pipeline -- low pipeline increased 45% in the first quarter. But then in the second quarter, the pipelines increased another 31% on top of what it grew in the first quarter. So that tends to make us feel a little more bullish that mid-single-digits is probably still appropriate for the next couple, quarters. But if the yield curve becomes more favorable, I think it's likely we could move to the mid- to upper-single-digits growth, probably next year.

    第一季度,低管道成長了 45%。但在第二季度,管道數量在第一季的基礎上又增加了 31%。因此,這往往讓我們感覺更加樂觀,認為中等個位數的成長率對於未來幾季來說可能仍然是合適的。但如果殖利率曲線變得更加有利,我認為我們很可能會實現中等至高個位數的成長,可能就在明年。

  • Catherine Mealor - Analyst

    Catherine Mealor - Analyst

  • Great. Makes sense. All right. Thanks. Great quarter. Appreciate it.

    偉大的。有道理。好的。謝謝。很棒的一個季度。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John McDonald, Truist Securities.

    約翰·麥克唐納(John McDonald),Truist Securities。

  • John McDonald - Analyst

    John McDonald - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. I just wanted to follow up on Steve's comments there on the NIM and the NII. Inside of that, what surprised you about deposit costs, which were very strong this quarter? And what's your outlook for the deposit cost inside that NIM guidance?

    嗨,早安。我只是想跟進史蒂夫對 NIM 和 NII 的評論。其中,本季存款成本非常強勁,是什麼讓您感到驚訝?您對 NIM 指導中的存款成本有何展望?

  • Stephen Young - Chief Strategy Officer

    Stephen Young - Chief Strategy Officer

  • Yeah. That's a good question, John. This is Steve. Just to pick you back up to the movie versus the portrait or polaroid. I think if we go back a couple of quarters, if you looked at IBTX and us together, the peak cost of deposits was in the third quarter at 2.29%.

    是的。這是個好問題,約翰。這是史蒂夫。只是為了讓你重新認識電影與肖像或寶麗來照片的差異。我認為,如果我們回顧幾個季度,如果你將 IBTX 和我們放在一起看,存款成本的峰值是在第三季度,為 2.29%。

  • And of course, last quarter, it was 1.84%, so a 45-basis-point improvement. So 45% beta on 100 basis points. And we only modeled 27% just because we thought it would be a bit different.

    當然,上個季度的成長率為 1.84%,即提高了 45 個基點。因此 100 個基點的貝塔值為 45%。我們只模擬了 27%,只是因為我們認為它會有點不同。

  • Having said all that, I think we've optimized the deposit base. And I would look at it that as we continue to grow loans, if we're in a situation where we're in the mid-single digit, maybe even a little higher than that, those deposit costs, on an incremental basis, will go up a little bit.

    話雖如此,我認為我們已經優化了存款基礎。我認為,隨著我們貸款的不斷增長,如果我們的貸款利率處於中等個位數,甚至可能略高一些,那麼這些存款成本在增量基礎上就會略有上升。

  • So our forecast is that those deposit costs to be in the 1.85%, 1.90% range over the next few quarters just as we continue to grow on that. But even at that, that would be a 40% beta or something like that, which is better than we thought.

    因此,我們預測,未來幾季這些存款成本將在 1.85% 至 1.90% 的範圍內,我們將繼續保持這一成長。但即便如此,這也將是 40% 的測試版或類似的數字,這比我們想像的要好。

  • John McDonald - Analyst

    John McDonald - Analyst

  • Thanks. And then just on the loan growth, another follow up. In terms of the pull through of the strong production to net loan growth, what are you seeing on paydowns? Any change in the paydown pace and activity that's affecting the difference between the gross production and what you're seeing in terms of net loan growth?

    謝謝。然後是關於貸款成長的另一個後續問題。就強勁生產對淨貸款成長的拉動動作而言,您認為還款情況如何?還款速度和活動的任何變化是否影響了總產值和淨貸款成長之間的差異?

  • John Corbett - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Corbett - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • The paydowns in the first quarter were actually lower than normal. We went back and looked at Independent and SouthState combined for the last four or five quarters, even before we closed.

    第一季的還款額實際上低於正常水平。我們回顧了 Independent 和 SouthState 在過去四、五個季度(甚至在我們關閉之前)的綜合表現。

  • The second quarter paydowns returned to a little more normal. It was a little more elevated than the last five quarter run rate. So I think that the level of pay downs in the second quarter is probably appropriate for where we go from here.

    第二季的還款情況稍微恢復正常。這比過去五個季度的運行率略高。因此,我認為第二季的減薪水準可能適合我們今後的發展。

  • A lot of this has to do with not just paydowns, but how much the loan originations fund initially versus over time. And we're funding around about 60% of that production, so there is some additional funding that will occur over time.

    這在很大程度上不僅與還款有關,還與貸款發放的初始資金數量以及隨著時間的推移資金數量有關。我們為該製作提供約 60% 的資金,因此隨著時間的推移還會有一些額外的資金。

  • John McDonald - Analyst

    John McDonald - Analyst

  • Got it. Okay. Great. Thank you.

    知道了。好的。偉大的。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Stephen Scouten, Piper Sandler.

    史蒂芬·斯考頓,派珀·桑德勒。

  • Stephen Scouten - Analyst

    Stephen Scouten - Analyst

  • Hey, thanks. Good morning, everyone. Steve, if you could maybe talk a little bit about the interest rate sensitivity, as well as you know -- and just want to make sure that's still the way I think about it. And I think you said you see the NIM going higher in '26, assuming that has some cuts baked in and that you guys are still a net beneficiary, if we get a little bit of rate cuts on the lower end but steepness of the curve.

    嘿,謝謝。大家早安。史蒂夫,你能否談談利率敏感性,以及你知道的——我只是想確保我仍然是這樣想的。我認為您說過,您認為 NIM 在 26 年會更高,假設已經考慮到一些削減措施,並且如果我們在低端獲得少量降息但曲線陡峭,您仍然是淨受益者。

  • Stephen Young - Chief Strategy Officer

    Stephen Young - Chief Strategy Officer

  • Sure. No, good question. As it relates to the interest rate sensitivity, I think we talked about it last quarter, but really no change from our guidance as we model it and our team models it. We expect somewhere in the 1- to 2-basis-point improvement to overall margin for every 25-basis-point cut.

    當然。不,好問題。至於它與利率敏感性有關,我想我們上個季度已經討論過這個問題,但實際上,由於我們和我們的團隊都對其進行了建模,因此我們的指導方針並沒有改變。我們預計,每降息 25 個基點,整體利潤率將提高 1 到 2 個基點。

  • So I guess, if the Fed ends up cutting rates 100 basis points, maybe that's 4, 5, 6 basis points on the run rate when all that's finished. And the math behind that is we have about 30% of our loan portfolio is a floating rate portfolio, so that's $14.6 billion. Of course, all that gets cut immediately.

    因此我猜測,如果聯準會最終將利率下調 100 個基點,那麼當所有步驟完成後,利率可能會下降 4、5、6 個基點。背後的計算是,我們的貸款組合中約有 30% 是浮動利率組合,即 146 億美元。當然,所有這些都會立即被削減。

  • We have about a little over $14 billion in exception price deposits that we think that, over time, we get about 80% of the data on that. And then we have the CD book, which is 7.7%. We think we get 75% of that. So that's been our history. We'll have to see. But that's the math behind that 1 to 2 basis points.

    我們有大約 140 億美元的例外價格存款,我們認為,隨著時間的推移,我們將獲得約 80% 的數據。然後我們有 CD 書,佔 7.7%。我們認為我們已經達到了其中的 75%。這就是我們的歷史。我們得拭目以待。但這就是 1 到 2 個基點背後的數學原理。

  • And then on the loan repricing piece, without any rate cuts, we should continue, as I mentioned in my remarks, that margins should continue to increase. And really the math behind that is the fixed rate loan repricing of the legacy SouthState.

    然後,關於貸款重新定價部分,在不降息的情況下,正如我在演講中提到的那樣,利潤率應該會繼續增加。而這背後的真正數學原理是傳統 SouthState 的固定利率貸款重新定價。

  • So if you think about -- over the -- if you look at the 18-month period from here to the end of 2026, the legacy SouthState, the unmarked book, has about $6.6 billion of loans repricing that on average, over that period of 18 months, is about -- the coupons' about 5%. And we think -- obviously, our new loan production this past quarter was 6.54%, but yeah, we're modeling a 6.25% over that period of time. So you pick up 0.25% on that.

    因此,如果您考慮一下——如果您看一下從現在到 2026 年底的 18 個月期間,遺留的 SouthState,未標記的帳簿,有大約 66 億美元的貸款重新定價,平均而言,在這 18 個月期間,票面利率約為 5%。我們認為——顯然,我們上個季度的新貸款產量為 6.54%,但是是的,我們預計該時期的貸款產量為 6.25%。因此,您可獲得 0.25% 的收益。

  • And then of course, on the independent portfolio, we have about $3 billion over the next 18 months that will mature reprice on the fixed book. And of course, that discount rate is somewhere in the 7.25% range. So if that's true, that would be negative by about -- if we want to use the same number 6.25%, by 1%.

    當然,在獨立投資組合中,我們在未來 18 個月內有大約 30 億美元將在固定帳簿上到期重新定價。當然,折扣率大約在 7.25% 左右。因此,如果這是真的,那將是負數——如果我們想使用相同的數字 6.25%,那麼就是 1%。

  • So the positive would be $6.6 billion repricing up 1.25%. And the negative would be $3 billion pricing down at 1%. The net of all that is about $50 million-ish or about 10 basis points positive on loan yield. So that's how we're thinking about the moving parts from here.

    因此,積極的一面是 66 億美元的重新定價上漲 1.25%。而負值將是 30 億美元,價格下降 1%。所有這些的淨額約為 5,000 萬美元左右,或貸款收益率約為 10 個基點。這就是我們對現在活動部件的思考。

  • A lot of the sensitivity of the interest rates have already been taken out because of the independent marks. What's left is the legacy SouthState repricing book and then any rate cuts on top of that. So hopefully that's helpful, if you think about it.

    由於獨立標記的存在,利率的許多敏感性已經被消除。剩下的就是 SouthState 遺留的重新定價手冊以及在此基礎上的任何降息。所以,如果你仔細想想的話,希望這會有所幫助。

  • Stephen Scouten - Analyst

    Stephen Scouten - Analyst

  • Yeah. No, that's great detail, especially about the puts and takes on legacy SouthState versus IBTX. I appreciate that.

    是的。不,這非常詳細,特別是關於傳統 SouthState 與 IBTX 的利弊。我很感激。

  • I guess, maybe, if we could touch on the deal that was announced last night. Maybe not that specifically, but just M&A in your markets even. How do you think about how this location could benefit you all?

    我想,也許我們可以談談昨晚宣布的交易。也許不是那麼具體,但甚至只是您所在市場內的併購。您認為這個位置對你們所有人有何益處?

  • Would you have any governor to adding people and talent if they become available? Just kind of how you think about the dynamics of the market and your ability to take advantage of that moving forward.

    如果有人才可用,您會推薦增加人才嗎?這只是您如何看待市場動態以及您如何利用這種動態向前發展的能力。

  • John Corbett - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Corbett - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, I mean, look about where we are, I'm really glad we made our move in Texas when we did in early 2024. That was really before the competition heated up, and I think that timing gave us an early mover advantage.

    是的,我的意思是,看看我們現在的情況,我真的很高興我們在 2024 年初搬到了德克薩斯州。那確實是在競爭變得激烈之前,我認為那個時機讓我們擁有了先發優勢。

  • For us, we're not pursuing anything now. The way the bank's performing, the bar is high for us and we can afford to be patient and selective on M&A, plus we think our multiples are cheap.

    對我們來說,我們現在不追求任何東西。從銀行的表現來看,我們的門檻很高,我們可以耐心並選擇性地進行併購,而且我們認為我們的本益比很便宜。

  • Our top priority now is that we're firing on all cylinders in Texas and Colorado. The conversion went great and the organic pipelines in Texas and Colorado grew by 31% last quarter. That's what we're focused on. And with all the disruption of M&A in the Southeast in Texas, that always creates opportunities and SouthState's positioned in the right spot.

    我們現在的首要任務是在德克薩斯州和科羅拉多州全力以赴。轉換進展順利,上個季度德克薩斯州和科羅拉多州的有機管道增長了 31%。這就是我們關注的重點。隨著德克薩斯州東南部併購活動的不斷發生,這總是會創造機會,而 SouthState 正處於正確的位置。

  • Stephen Scouten - Analyst

    Stephen Scouten - Analyst

  • Got it. But nothing that would deter you from adding -- if a team of, let's just say, 10 or 20 people came around, you'd go ahead and do that if it was right?

    知道了。但沒有什麼可以阻止你添加 - 如果一個由 10 或 20 人組成的團隊加入,如果這是正確的,你會繼續這樣做嗎?

  • John Corbett - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Corbett - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I mean, yeah. Absolutely. We added 47 revenue producers in the second quarter. So that's part of our DNA is constantly recruiting. And with all the disruption in Texas and the Southeast, we'll continue to do that.

    我的意思是,是的。絕對地。我們在第二季增加了 47 位創收者。所以,不斷招募人才是我們 DNA 的一部分。儘管德州和東南部地區局勢混亂,我們仍將繼續這樣做。

  • Stephen Scouten - Analyst

    Stephen Scouten - Analyst

  • Perfect. Thanks for the color. Great quarter.

    完美的。謝謝你的顏色。很棒的一個季度。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jared Shaw, Barclays.

    巴克萊銀行的賈里德·肖 (Jared Shaw)。

  • Jared Shaw - Equity Analyst

    Jared Shaw - Equity Analyst

  • Hey, good morning. I guess just looking at -- you call out the regulatory sweet spot of $60 billion to $80 billion. How do you see that trending -- you're in there right now. How do you see that trending over time?

    嘿,早安。我想只需看一下——您就會提到 600 億美元至 800 億美元的監管最佳點。您如何看待這種趨勢——您現在就在其中。您如何看待這種隨時間推移的趨勢?

  • Do you think if we see some concrete change in regulation for $100 billion that your platform can naturally grow above that without any more big investments? Or how should we think about that regulatory sweet spot changing over time for you in scale?

    您是否認為,如果我們看到 1000 億美元的監管發生一些具體變化,您的平台是否能夠在無需更多大筆投資的情況下自然地實現增長?或者我們應該如何看待監管的最佳點隨著時間的推移而發生規模變化?

  • John Corbett - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Corbett - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. I mean, it's in the news every day. You've got new regulators in place. They're making changes. But I mean, the way I think about it, we're a long way from $100 billion and $66 billion in size. So we've got a long time to continue building the infrastructure.

    是的。我的意思是,它每天都出現在新聞中。你們已經建立了新的監管機構。他們正在做出改變。但我的意思是,在我看來,我們的規模距離 1000 億美元和 660 億美元還很遠。因此我們還有很長的時間來繼續建造基礎設施。

  • Our Chief Risk Officer, Beth DeSimone's done a fabulous job managing the heightened expectations over the last four or five years as we cross $50 billion. We've got great relationships with our regulators. We'll just have to watch and see how the regulation evolves, but we've got a long time before we're faced with that.

    過去四、五年來,隨著我們的規模突破 500 億美元,我們的首席風險長 Beth DeSimone 在管理不斷提高的預期方面做得非常出色。我們與監管機構保持良好的關係。我們只需要觀察法規如何發展,但我們還需要很長時間才能看到這一點。

  • Jared Shaw - Equity Analyst

    Jared Shaw - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. Thanks.

    好的。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Rose, Raymond James.

    麥可羅斯、雷蒙詹姆斯。

  • Michael Rose - Analyst

    Michael Rose - Analyst

  • Hey. Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. Will or Steve, just any updates on the extent outlook. Looks like you were at the lower-end of the range for this quarter. Maybe just some color on what drove you to the lower-end of the range?

    嘿。大家早安。感謝您回答我的問題。威爾或史蒂夫,只是關於範圍展望的任何更新。看起來您處於本季度範圍的低端。也許只是一些促使您選擇較低價格範圍的原因?

  • And any updates as we think about what you've previously said around the back half of the year? Just as a starting point. Thanks.

    當我們思考您之前在下半年說過的話時,有什麼更新嗎?僅作為起點。謝謝。

  • William Matthews - Chief Financial Officer

    William Matthews - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, Michael, and I guess, the short answer is really no change to our prior guidance. I mean, honestly looking at consensus you guys have, we think a good number in there for the remainder of this year and 2026. So I'd say really no change to our guidance.

    是的,邁克爾,我想,簡短的回答是,我們之前的指導確實沒有改變。我的意思是,老實說,看看你們的共識,我們認為今年剩餘時間和 2026 年都會有一個相當不錯的數字。所以我想說我們的指導確實沒有改變。

  • There are always some moving pieces, as you well know, relative to revenue-based compensation, some of the business lines. You've got loan origination bonds that impact your deferred loan costs. All those kind of things that move in and out.

    眾所周知,相對於基於收入的薪酬,某些業務線總是存在一些變動。您擁有會影響延期貸款成本的貸款發放債券。所有那些進進出出的事物。

  • You've got incentive comp. All that sort of stuff. But -- so any variability between what I -- last time, I think I said between [350] and [360] this quarter. So we were at the low end of that range. But all those kinds of things can factor in. We've done a good job in executing on the cost save, so we still feel very good about that part of the integration with Independent and really sticking with our guidance on NIE.

    您已獲得激勵補償。諸如此類的事情。但是 — — 所以,上次我說的本季在 [350] 到 [360] 之間有什麼變化嗎?所以我們處於這個範圍的低端。但所有這些因素都會影響到。我們在成本節約方面做得很好,因此我們仍然對與 Independent 整合的這一部分感到非常滿意,並且真正堅持我們對 NIE 的指導。

  • Michael Rose - Analyst

    Michael Rose - Analyst

  • And then maybe just (multiple speakers) --

    然後也許只是(多位發言者)——

  • William Matthews - Chief Financial Officer

    William Matthews - Chief Financial Officer

  • One comment. I forgot to mention that, just a reminder. I've said it before, but July 1 is when much of our team across the company gets their merit increases. So that's also factored into my guidance as well, that the third quarter will reflect that too.

    一則評論。我忘了提這件事了,只是提醒一下。我之前說過,7 月 1 日是我們公司大部分團隊成員的加薪日。所以這也被考慮到了我的指導中,第三季也會反映這一點。

  • Michael Rose - Analyst

    Michael Rose - Analyst

  • Perfect. Appreciate it. And maybe just as my follow up. I know it's still early days, but anything on the revenue synergy front that we should be contemplating now that we're another 90 days past the deal? And then just from a retention standpoint, how is that held up relative to your original expectations? Thanks.

    完美的。非常感謝。或許只是我的後續行動。我知道現在還為時過早,但是現在距離交易結束已經過了 90 天,我們應該考慮收入綜效方面的什麼問題嗎?那麼僅從保留的角度來看,這與您最初的期望相比如何?謝謝。

  • John Corbett - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Corbett - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, it's held up great, as I've mentioned previously on these calls. We went to all the geographic leaders before the announcement and they all signed up with employment agreements before the announcement. And then we went to the -- it was the top 47 revenue producers with retention packages. And all of them joined up and did that.

    是的,正如我之前在電話中提到的那樣,它表現得很好。我們在公告發布之前聯繫了所有地區領導人,他們都在公告發布之前簽署了僱傭協議。然後我們來看看——這是 47 位擁有保留套餐的收入最高的人。他們都團結起來,做了這件事。

  • So we've been very, very pleased. And the leader we've got in Texas and Colorado, Dan Strodel, highly respected in the bank with that team. And he's done a great job. And the bankers are doing a good job.

    因此我們非常非常高興。我們在德克薩斯州和科羅拉多州的領導人丹·斯特羅德爾 (Dan Strodel) 和該團隊在銀行中備受尊敬。他做得非常出色。銀行家們做得很好。

  • So -- and we're hiring. I think in -- I mentioned those revenue producers we've added, we added two in Houston, we added two in Colorado, we added one in Dallas, so they're out recruiting.

    所以——我們正在招募。我認為——我提到了我們增加的那些創收者,我們在休士頓增加了兩個,在科羅拉多增加了兩個,在達拉斯增加了一個,所以他們正在招募。

  • Michael Rose - Analyst

    Michael Rose - Analyst

  • And then just on the on the fee side, the synergy side, anything that should be contemplated?

    那麼,就費用方面、協同方面而言,有什麼需要考慮的嗎?

  • John Corbett - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Corbett - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • One thing that's been a real positive, Independent was a really good CRE lender. And we've got the interest rate swap product, Michael, the capital markets product where we make the fees. And they've been quick adopters to that so that's been a nice source of fee revenue.

    有一件事情是真正積極的,Independent 是一家非常優秀的 CRE 貸款機構。我們有利率互換產品,邁克爾,這是我們收取費用的資本市場產品。他們很快就採用了這種方法,因此這成為了一個很好的費用收入來源。

  • Michael Rose - Analyst

    Michael Rose - Analyst

  • All right. I'll step back. Thanks for taking my questions.

    好的。我會退後。感謝您回答我的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Gary Tenner, D.A. Davidson.

    坦納 (Gary Tenner)、地方檢察官戴維森 (D.A. Davidson)。

  • Gary Tenner - Analyst

    Gary Tenner - Analyst

  • Thanks. Good morning. I wanted to just ask a question about the deposit rates. I know you gave kind of a 1.85% to 1.90% range for the back half of the year.

    謝謝。早安.我只是想問一個有關存款利率的問題。我知道您給出的下半年成長率範圍是 1.85% 到 1.90%。

  • But on the CD side, I guess I'm curious, the amount of growth there this quarter was pretty notable just from a sequential quarter comparison. So wondering about the push there.

    但在 CD 方面,我很好奇,僅從連續季度比較來看,本季的成長量就相當顯著。所以想知道那裡的推手。

  • And then the rate paid didn't come down, maybe, quite as much as I would have assumed. So I'm just wondering how that market is shaping up from a pricing perspective.

    然後支付的費率可能並沒有像我預想的那樣下降。所以我只是想知道從定價角度來看該市場是如何形成的。

  • Stephen Young - Chief Strategy Officer

    Stephen Young - Chief Strategy Officer

  • Yeah, Gary, this is Steve. When we closed -- and you didn't have the benefit of seeing this, but when we closed the independent transaction, if you looked at our December 31 numbers, I think our CD balances would have been a little over $7.5 billion or so.

    是的,加里,這是史蒂夫。當我們結束時——你沒有看到這一點,但是當我們結束獨立交易時,如果你查看我們 12 月 31 日的數字,我認為我們的 CD 餘額應該略高於 75 億美元左右。

  • And a lot of that has to do with we're trying to balance sheet manage this. Of course, there's a lot of moving parts and putting it together, and so in the first quarter, even though I think we grew, it grew deposits a little bit, our CDs actually shrunk. Although that was the first time we reported together, so you didn't see that.

    這在很大程度上與我們試圖透過資產負債表進行管理有關。當然,有很多活動部件需要組合在一起,所以在第一季度,儘管我認為我們的存款有所增長,但我們的 CD 實際上縮水了。雖然那是我們第一次一起報道,所以你沒有看到。

  • What is happening now it's just the growth rate phenomenon. And in the first quarter, we didn't, as we mentioned before, we didn't grow loans. This quarter we did and we think we will.

    現在發生的只是成長率現象。正如我們之前提到的,在第一季度,我們的貸款並沒有增加。本季我們做到了,我們相信我們將會做到。

  • And so it's going to be on the incremental new deposit side. It's just going to be at a higher funded rate until they cut rates. And so that's all I would say about that. I think if our balance sheet was flat, we would probably stay here, but on the incremental growth as we record 6.5% loans and we're going to have to fund those incremental loans with incremental deposits, and those rates will be a little bit higher on the incremental margin.

    因此,它將屬於增量新存款方面。在他們降低利率之前,融資利率只會維持在高水準。關於這一點,我想說的就這些。我認為,如果我們的資產負債表持平,我們可能會保持現狀,但在增量增長方面,隨著我們記錄 6.5% 的貸款,我們將不得不用增量存款來為這些增量貸款提供資金,而增量保證金的利率將會略高一些。

  • Gary Tenner - Analyst

    Gary Tenner - Analyst

  • Okay. I appreciate it. And then follow up question just on the loan yields. The 7 basis points expansion excretion. I know I think, Will, you've offered some reasons why that moves around. But was the normalization of pre-pays this quarter a notable driver of that expansion or is it more mix and production yield?

    好的。我很感激。然後是關於貸款收益率的後續問題。擴大排泄量7個基點。我知道,我認為,威爾,你已經給了一些為什麼會發生這種情況的原因。但本季預付款的正常化是否是這項擴張的顯著動力,還是更多的是組合和生產收益?

  • Stephen Young - Chief Strategy Officer

    Stephen Young - Chief Strategy Officer

  • Yeah, this is Steve. I guess if you take all accretion out, and we show this on the waterfall, our loan yield went from $571 million last quarter to $578 million. So -- yeah, something like that, 7 basis points or so on the loan yield. And so there's a repricing component to that.

    是的,這是史蒂夫。我想,如果把所有的增值都去掉,我們在瀑布圖上顯示出來,我們的貸款收益率從上個季度的 5.71 億美元上升到了 5.78 億美元。是的,差不多是這樣,貸款收益率大約是 7 個基點。因此,這其中存在重新定價的成分。

  • But obviously, as we mentioned on the accretion, and a lot -- some of that was the PCD accretion. It was higher than we thought and that's because I think we worked some of those relationships out or did. So anytime you accelerate some of that back to the individual quarters, there's going to be some noise in that.

    但顯然,正如我們在吸積上所提到的,其中許多是 PCD 吸積。這個數字比我們想像的還要高,這是因為我認為我們解決了一些關係問題。因此,每當您將其中一些加速回各個季度時,就會產生一些噪音。

  • But if I had to bring you back to what we said last quarter and thinking about total loan yield, we said, it should range this year in the 6.15% to 6.25% range. And then if you think about the comments I just made in a flat rate environment and the repricing of our loans from legacy SouthState as well, as legacy Independent, you would see another 10 basis points higher over almost in the 8 to 10 basis points a year range.

    但如果我必須回顧我們上個季度所說的內容並考慮總貸款收益率,我們說,今年的總貸款收益率應該在 6.15% 到 6.25% 的範圍內。然後,如果您考慮一下我剛才在固定利率環境下所做的評論,以及來自傳統 SouthState 的貸款重新定價,作為傳統 Independent,您會看到利率在每年 8 到 10 個基點的範圍內再上漲 10 個基點。

  • So I know one of the research analysts put out a report a few weeks ago, just trying to show the total loan yield, which is how we think about it in a flat rate environment, our total loan yield in the next two years would be, call it, 20 basis points higher than it is today.

    我知道一位研究分析師幾週前發布了一份報告,只是想展示總貸款收益率,這是我們在固定利率環境下的想法,未來兩年我們的總貸款收益率將比現在高出 20 個基點。

  • But I doubt we'll be in a flat rate environment and I doubt everything will be similar. But that's how we're thinking about loan yield this year, 6.15% to 6.25%. We've overperformed a little bit and because of some of the PCD and other things, but long-term, it continues to march higher in a flat environment.

    但我懷疑我們是否會處於統一費率的環境中,而且我懷疑一切都會相似。但這就是我們對今年貸款收益率的看法,6.15% 至 6.25%。由於 PCD 和其他因素的影響,我們的表現略有超出,但從長遠來看,在平穩的環境中,它會繼續走高。

  • Gary Tenner - Analyst

    Gary Tenner - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Samuel Varga, UBS.

    瑞銀的 Samuel Varga。

  • Samuel Varga - Analyst

    Samuel Varga - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning. I just wanted to ask a question on the allowance. Will, you give some great color last quarter around not shifting the scenario weightings but having a Q factor adjustment in there for tariffs. Can you touch on where that adjustment is today and how you're trying to bake that in moving forward and where the allowance might go as a result?

    嘿,早安。我只是想問一個有關津貼的問題。威爾,上個季度你給了很好的解釋,沒有改變情景權重,而是對關稅進行了 Q 因子調整。您能否談談目前的調整情況以及您打算如何將其融入未來的調整中,以及最終津貼將如何分配?

  • William Matthews - Chief Financial Officer

    William Matthews - Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure, Sam. Good question. I'd say this about the reserve level. A couple of things. One, if you look at slide 21 the deck, you can see obviously our charge-off history is very low, 51 basis points accumulatively to over 10 years plus a quarter.

    當然,薩姆。好問題。關於儲備水平我想說一下這一點。有幾件事。首先,如果你看第 21 張投影片,你會發現我們的沖銷歷史非常低,在 10 年多一個季度的時間裡累計沖銷了 51 個基點。

  • So at some point, that data sees its way into the regression analysis that drives loss estimates and reserve balances. We've been through a pretty uncertain period in the economy these first couple of quarters, obviously with the tariff uncertainty, et cetera, et cetera, which has driven some of those Q factor items that we mentioned last quarter.

    因此,在某個時候,這些數據會進入推動損失估計值和準備金餘額的迴歸分析中。在前幾季度,我們的經濟經歷了一段相當不確定的時期,顯然有關稅不確定性等等,這導致了我們上個季度提到的一些 Q 因素。

  • Those continued this quarter. We did actually adjust our scenario winning this quarter a little bit more pessimistically than it was in the first quarter.

    本季度,這種情況仍在繼續。我們確實調整了本季的獲勝預測,與第一季相比,情況稍微悲觀一些。

  • But I'd say, stepping back, if you look at the reserve level, if we see stability in the economy and the economic forecasts, I think it is reasonable to say that we could see reserve levels decline as a percentage of loans. If you look back when we adopted seasonal, of course, the company was smaller then, but the reserve was down to 115, 120-basis-point range.

    但我想說,退一步來看,如果你看一下儲備水平,如果我們看到經濟和經濟預測的穩定性,我認為可以合理地說,我們可以看到儲備水平佔貸款的百分比下降。如果你回顧我們採用季節性的時候,當然,那時公司規模較小,但儲備金卻下降到了 115、120 個基點的範圍。

  • Other thing to keep in mind too. Steve, referenced that the PCD loans declined at a more rapid rate the same quarter. That's really like a 25% annualized decline rate. PCD loans, not only are they marked at a little bit higher interest rate, but they carry a higher reserve.

    還有其它事情要記住。史蒂夫提到,同一季度 PCD 貸款下降速度更快。這實際上相當於 25% 的年化下降率。PCD貸款不僅利率稍高,準備金也較高。

  • So reduction in PCD loans is also going to put downward pressure on reserve levels. So all that being said, it's always difficult to predict, but I think it's reasonable to expect that over time, with a stable economy, you see our reserve levels probably move down.

    因此,PCD貸款的減少也將對儲備水準造成下行壓力。所以,儘管如此,預測總是很困難的,但我認為,可以合理地預期,隨著時間的推移,在經濟穩定的情況下,我們的儲備水準可能會下降。

  • Samuel Varga - Analyst

    Samuel Varga - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks for that. And then, John, could you just touch on capital allocation from here. The buyback word came up, just curious on how you think about it over the next 18 months?

    偉大的。謝謝。然後,約翰,你能否從這裡談談資本配置。提到了回購這個詞,我只是好奇您對未來 18 個月的看法是什麼?

  • John Corbett - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Corbett - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, with the earnings improving the way they have, you saw our PPNR per share increasing substantially in the last year. The Board felt comfortable to move the dividend rate up. We moved the rate up 11%.

    是的,隨著收益的提高,您會看到我們的每股 PPNR 在去年大幅增加。董事會願意提高股利率。我們將利率上調了 11%。

  • And we think we're in a position to annually, consistently see that dividend rate increase. So that's actually a priority.

    我們認為我們能夠看到股息率每年持續成長。所以這實際上是一個優先事項。

  • We do believe there's opportunities on the buyback. I mentioned that I feel like our currency is cheap right now, so there could be some opportunities there.

    我們確實相信回購存在機會。我提到我覺得我們的貨幣現在很便宜,所以那裡可能有一些機會。

  • And then we're watching these loan pipelines continue to grow and opportunities to recruit. So that would be the other main priority, as well as organic growth.

    然後我們看到這些貸款管道不斷成長,招募機會也不斷增加。因此,這將是另一個主要優先事項,以及有機成長。

  • William Matthews - Chief Financial Officer

    William Matthews - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, I'll just layer in a couple of comments. One, I think I previously said that we saw our CET1 growing 20 to 25 basis points a quarter. Yeah. So if we do some buyback, maybe that number drops down to the 10, 15, 15 to 20 range.

    是的,我只想發表幾則評論。首先,我記得我之前說過,我們的 CET1 每季成長 20 到 25 個基點。是的。因此,如果我們進行一些回購,也許這個數字會下降到 10、15、15 到 20 的範圍。

  • We, in the first quarter, did some capital actions with respect to the sale lease back and then restructuring the bond portfolio, which is -- we saw with the impact of that on the margin. But if you look at our CET1 today with AOCI included in the calculation, we're actually above the level we were a year ago.

    我們在第一季針對售後回租採取了一些資本行動,然後重組了債券投資組合,我們看到了這些行動對利潤率的影響。但如果您查看我們今天的 CET1,並將 AOCI 納入計算,我們實際上已經高於一年前的水平。

  • We were at 10, almost 10.5 at the end of the second quarter on CET1 with AOCI. So a healthy position for CET1 as calculated. And if you calculate it with AOCI included, that's about 12 basis points above where we were a year ago. So that does give us some good optionality and some opportunity to think about different options.

    截至第二季末,我們的 CET1 和 AOCI 得分為 10,接近 10.5。因此,根據計算,CET1 處於健康位置。如果用 AOCI 來計算,這比一年前高出約 12 個基點。所以這確實給了我們一些很好的選擇和一些思考不同選擇的機會。

  • Samuel Varga - Analyst

    Samuel Varga - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks for taking my questions.

    偉大的。感謝您回答我的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • I will now turn the call back over to John Corbett for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

    現在我將把電話轉回約翰·科比特 (John Corbett) 作結束語。請繼續。

  • John Corbett - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Corbett - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • All right. Well, thank you, guys, for spending some time with us this morning. As always, if you have any follow-up questions, feel free to give Will and Steve a ring and I hope you have a great weekend.

    好的。好吧,謝謝大家今天上午抽出時間與我們在一起。像往常一樣,如果您有任何後續問題,請隨時給威爾和史蒂夫打電話,我希望您度過一個愉快的周末。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining and you may now disconnect.

    女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的加入,現在可以斷開連線了。