SouthState Bank Corp (SSB) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Hello, everyone, and welcome to the SouthState Corporation Q1 2023 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Charlie and I'll be coordinating the call today. (Operator Instructions) I will now hand over to our host, Will Matthews, CFO, to begin. Will, please go ahead.

大家好，歡迎來到 SouthState Corporation 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。我叫查理，今天我將負責協調電話會議。 （操作員說明）我現在將交給我們的主持人，首席財務官 Will Matthews 開始。威爾，請繼續。

Good morning. Welcome to SouthState's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. This is Will Matthews. I'm here with John Corbett, Steve Young and Jeremy Lucas. John and I will make a few brief prepared remarks before we open it up for questions. As always, a copy of our earnings release and our investor deck are located on our Investor Relations website.

早上好。歡迎來到 SouthState 的 2023 年第一季度財報電話會議。這是威爾·馬修斯。我和 John Corbett、Steve Young 和 Jeremy Lucas 一起來的。在我們開始提問之前，約翰和我會做一些簡短的準備好的評論。與往常一樣，我們的收益發布副本和投資者平台位於我們的投資者關係網站上。

Before we begin our remarks, let me remind you that comments we make may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws and regulations. Any such forward-looking statements we may make are subject to the safe harbor rules. Please review the forward-looking disclaimer and safe harbor language in the press release and presentation for more information about our forward-looking statements and risks and uncertainties which may affect us.

在我們開始發表評論之前，讓我提醒您，我們發表的評論可能包括聯邦證券法律法規意義上的前瞻性陳述。我們可能做出的任何此類前瞻性陳述均受安全港規則的約束。請查看新聞稿和演示文稿中的前瞻性免責聲明和安全港語言，以了解有關我們的前瞻性陳述以及可能影響我們的風險和不確定性的更多信息。

Now let me turn the call over to John Corbett, our CEO.

現在讓我把電話轉給我們的首席執行官 John Corbett。

All right. Thank you, Will. Good morning, everybody. Thank you for making time to join us. In March, we passed the third anniversary of the pandemic shutdown of the economy. It also marked the third anniversary of the Fed's massive quantitative easing response.

好的。謝謝你，威爾。大家早上好。感謝您抽出時間加入我們。 3 月，我們度過了大流行性經濟停擺三週年。這也標誌著美聯儲大規模量化寬鬆政策回應三週年。

Last year, however, the Fed made a hard pivot from fighting the pandemic economy to fighting the inflation economy and intuitively, we've all been worried that the speed and scale of that pivot would result in casualties. Well, those casualties showed up in the banking system on March 8. In spite of the recent turmoil, the SouthState team delivered results that were right in line with our previous guidance. During the quarter, we produced growth in loans, deposits, liquidity and our capital ratios. Earnings per share of $1.83 increased 32% from the same period last year, and that yielded a return on tangible common equity of about 19%.

然而，去年美聯儲從抗擊流行病經濟轉向抗擊通脹經濟，直覺上我們都擔心這種轉向的速度和規模會導致人員傷亡。好吧，那些傷亡人員於 3 月 8 日出現在銀行系統中。儘管最近發生了動盪，但 SouthState 團隊交付的結果與我們之前的指導一致。本季度，我們在貸款、存款、流動性和資本比率方面取得了增長。每股收益 1.83 美元，比去年同期增長 32%，有形普通股回報率約為 19%。

In the weeks following March 8, the market identified 2 immediate risks, liquidity and capital and also 2 longer-term risks, earnings and credit. I'll briefly touch on each. On liquidity, we've been building a diversified and granular deposit base for decades. And we came into this rate hiking cycle with $6 billion in cash a year ago. SouthState manages 1.5 million deposit accounts with an average deposit size that is the lowest of our peer group at only $24,000 per account. So that granularity adds stability and a lower percentage of uninsured deposits.

在 3 月 8 日之後的幾週內，市場確定了 2 個直接風險，即流動性和資本，以及 2 個長期風險，即收益和信貸。我將簡要介紹每一個。在流動性方面，我們幾十年來一直在建立多元化和細化的存款基礎。一年前，我們帶著 60 億美元的現金進入了這個加息週期。 SouthState 管理著 150 萬個存款賬戶，平均存款規模是我們同行中最低的，每個賬戶僅為 24,000 美元。因此，這種粒度增加了穩定性並降低了未保險存款的百分比。

On Page 26, we've itemized $19 billion of available liquidity sources to cover less than $11 billion of uninsured and uncollateralized deposits, and that provides a 176% coverage ratio. So there's ample liquidity.

在第 26 頁，我們列出了 190 億美元的可用流動性來源，以覆蓋不到 110 億美元的無保險和無抵押存款，覆蓋率為 176%。所以有充足的流動性。

On capital, in the weeks following March 8, there's been speculation about the regulatory response and whether unrealized losses will eventually be reflected in regulatory capital ratios.

在資本方面，在 3 月 8 日之後的幾週內，人們猜測監管機構的反應以及未實現的損失是否最終會反映在監管資本比率中。

On Page 27, we show a waterfall to illustrate that SouthState remains well capitalized on all regulatory ratios if you include the impact of AOCI. Additionally, we calculated it to include the impact of both, available-for-sale securities and held-to-maturity securities, and all of our regulatory ratios still exceed well-capitalized requirements. Those capital ratios should continue to build as the balance sheet grows at a more moderate pace. In fact, tangible book value per share increased 6% during the first quarter.

在第 27 頁，我們展示了一個瀑布圖來說明如果您包括 AOCI 的影響，SouthState 仍然充分利用所有監管比率。此外，我們計算它包括可供出售證券和持有至到期證券的影響，我們所有的監管比率仍然超過資本充足的要求。隨著資產負債表以更溫和的速度增長，這些資本比率應該會繼續增加。事實上，第一季度每股有形賬面價值增長了 6%。

On earnings, like most banks, the biggest risk to our earnings forecast are deposit costs. We finished the first quarter with a cumulative deposit beta of only 13% and a total cost of deposits of 63 basis points, which came in right in line with our prior guidance. And that low beta helped our PPNR per share to grow 62% over the last year. Given the events on March 8, that earnings growth ramp will moderate, and Steve can share some updated thoughts on the Q&A on potential deposit betas moving forward.

在收益方面，與大多數銀行一樣，我們的收益預測面臨的最大風險是存款成本。我們在第一季度結束時的累計存款貝塔係數僅為 13%，存款總成本為 63 個基點，這與我們之前的指導一致。這一低貝塔幫助我們的每股 PPNR 比去年增長了 62%。鑑於 3 月 8 日發生的事件，收益增長將放緩，史蒂夫可以分享一些關於未來潛在存款貝塔的問答的最新想法。

And finally, on credit. Asset quality metrics remain excellent and stable. However, we are conservatively building reserves. Over the last 4 quarters, we added $123 million in loan loss reserves compared to just $3 million in charge-offs. And with the increasing focus on the office segment, we added a new slide in the deck that Will can touch on in his remarks.

最後，賒賬。資產質量指標保持優良和穩定。但是，我們正在保守地建立儲備。在過去的 4 個季度中，我們增加了 1.23 億美元的貸款損失準備金，而沖銷準備金僅為 300 萬美元。隨著人們越來越關注辦公室部分，我們在幻燈片中添加了一張新幻燈片，Will 可以在他的評論中提及。

Stepping back from current events, every shakeup like this presents new challenges and new opportunities. And this management team has been involved in 9 FDIC transactions and knows what it's like to manage through a cycle. That's why our guiding principles of soundness, profitability and growth start with soundness. We will continue to have opportunities to recruit new bankers. And we're already seeing opportunities to command higher loan spreads as industry liquidity is becoming scarce.

拋開時事不談，像這樣的每一次重組都會帶來新的挑戰和新的機遇。而這個管理團隊參與過9筆FDIC交易，知道管理一個週期是什麼感覺。這就是為什麼我們的穩健性、盈利能力和增長的指導原則始於穩健性。我們將繼續有機會招募新的銀行家。隨著行業流動性變得稀缺，我們已經看到了獲得更高貸款利差的機會。

And it doesn't hurt to be located in the most vibrant markets in the country. The Southeast is known for its friendly business climate and capital flows where capital is treated well. It seems like every month, there is an announcement of a new multibillion-dollar manufacturing facility with thousands of new jobs in the Southeast. And those job opportunities are leading to population migration. Based on the latest Census report, SouthState operates in 4 of the 6 fastest growing states in the country.

位於該國最具活力的市場也無妨。東南部以其友好的商業環境和資本流動而聞名，資本受到良好對待。似乎每個月，東南部都會宣布一個價值數十億美元的新製造工廠，該工廠將提供數千個新工作崗位。這些工作機會正在導致人口遷移。根據最新的人口普查報告，SouthState 在全國 6 個增長最快的州中有 4 個開展業務。

I'll conclude my remarks by thanking our team. You can never predict when a black swan event will occur. But those are the times when long-term client relationships matter the most and SouthState's relationships run long and deep.

最後，我要感謝我們的團隊。你永遠無法預測黑天鵝事件何時會發生。但那些是長期客戶關係最重要的時代，SouthState 的關係長期而深入。

And now I'll turn it over to Will to walk you through details on the quarter.

現在我將把它交給 Will，向您介紹本季度的詳細信息。

Thanks, John. I'll speak briefly to a few measures before we open it up for questions. From a high-level perspective, our first quarter margin and deposit costs were at or slightly better than our prior guidance. After the events of March 8, we decided to build a bit more liquidity on the balance sheet. Our tax equivalent NIM of 3.93% was down 6 basis points from the fourth quarter, although it was approximately 9 to 10 basis points better than we had budgeted. A 40 basis point increase in earning asset yields was offset by a 46 basis point increase in cost of funds. Cost of total deposits increased 42 basis points in line with our guidance of a 40 to 50 basis point increase from last quarter. Our interest-bearing deposit costs remained slightly below 1% at 97 basis points.

謝謝，約翰。在我們開始提問之前，我將簡要介紹一些措施。從高層次的角度來看，我們第一季度的保證金和存款成本達到或略高於我們之前的指導。 3 月 8 日事件發生後，我們決定在資產負債表上增加一點流動性。我們的稅收等值 NIM 為 3.93%，比第四季度下降了 6 個基點，但比我們的預算高出約 9 到 10 個基點。收益資產收益率增加 40 個基點被資金成本增加 46 個基點所抵消。總存款成本增加了 42 個基點，符合我們對上季度增加 40 至 50 個基點的指導。我們的計息存款成本保持在 97 個基點，略低於 1%。

Loans grew at a 7% annualized rate in line with our expectations, predominantly in single-family residential, up almost $400 million. Line of credit utilization remained flat with C&I line usage actually down 2% from Q4 and HELOC usage flat.

貸款年化增長率為 7%，符合我們的預期，主要是單戶住宅，增長近 4 億美元。信貸額度使用率保持平穩，C&I 額度使用率實際上比第四季度下降 2%，HELOC 使用率持平。

Deposits grew at a 1% rate. Included in that deposit growth is brokered CD issuance of $1.25 billion during the quarter. We had budgeted and planned to issue $1 billion but went ahead and issued an additional $250 million late in the quarter in light of some of the industry concern.

存款以 1% 的速度增長。存款增長包括本季度 12.5 億美元的經紀 CD 發行。我們已經制定了預算併計劃發行 10 億美元，但鑑於行業的一些擔憂，我們在本季度末繼續發行了 2.5 億美元。

Excluding brokered CDs, our deposits declined approximately $1.2 billion in the quarter. Of that amount, approximately $400 million was normal public funds drawdowns after Q4 tax collection season.

不包括經紀 CD，本季度我們的存款減少了約 12 億美元。其中，大約 4 億美元是第四季度稅收季後正常的公共資金提取。

We did see continued growth in the number of core banking deposit accounts, debit cards and customers in the quarter. We had $900 million in FHLB borrowings outstanding as we elected to carry more cash on the balance sheet at quarter end, with cash and Fed funds balances up $700 million.

我們確實看到本季度核心銀行存款賬戶、借記卡和客戶數量持續增長。由於我們選擇在季度末在資產負債表上持有更多現金，因此我們有 9 億美元的 FHLB 未償還借款，現金和聯邦基金餘額增加了 7 億美元。

Noninterest income improved $8 million over the fourth quarter, led by correspondent and mortgage and steady performance in wealth management.

非利息收入在第四季度增加了 800 萬美元，這主要得益於代理和抵押貸款以及財富管理的穩定表現。

Noninterest expenses continued to be well managed with NIE of $231 million, up $3 million from the fourth quarter and slightly better than expected for the quarter.

非利息支出繼續得到良好管理，NIE 為 2.31 億美元，比第四季度增加 300 萬美元，略好於本季度的預期。

We had another quarter of very low credit losses with net loan recoveries excluding overdraft losses and only $1 million in total net charge-offs. We added to the reserve levels again this quarter with a $33 million provision expense, $18 million of which was for unfunded commitments. The combined total of our allowance and reserve for unfunded commitments stood at $456 million at the end of the quarter, up 8 basis points to 1.48%. As John noted, that's $123 million in provision expense versus only $3 million in net charge-offs over the last 4 quarters with net loan recoveries, before including overdraft charge-offs. And we expanded our reserve coverage by 23 basis points over this period.

我們還有四分之一的非常低的信貸損失，淨貸款回收不包括透支損失，淨沖銷總額僅為 100 萬美元。本季度我們再次增加了準備金水平，增加了 3300 萬美元的撥備費用，其中 1800 萬美元用於未提供資金的承諾。截至本季度末，我們未提供資金的承諾的準備金和儲備金合計為 4.56 億美元，上升 8 個基點至 1.48%。正如約翰指出的那樣，這是 1.23 億美元的撥備費用，而過去 4 個季度的淨沖銷只有 300 萬美元，其中包括透支沖銷之前的淨貸款回收。在此期間，我們將準備金覆蓋範圍擴大了 23 個基點。

Slide 22 shows asset quality trends over the last 5 quarters. These metrics continue to be very solid. NPLs to loans of 41 basis points were up slightly from Q4 and down slightly from the 2022 1st quarter. NPAs were up $19 million, and criticized and classified assets were essentially flat, with substandard loans down $12 million and special mention loans up $10 million. Past dues were also down.

幻燈片 22 顯示了過去 5 個季度的資產質量趨勢。這些指標仍然非常可靠。不良貸款率為 41 個基點，較第四季度略有上升，較 2022 年第一季度略有下降。不良資產增加 1900 萬美元，受批評和分類資產基本持平，次級貸款減少 1200 萬美元，關注類貸款增加 1000 萬美元。過去的會費也減少了。

Given the current interest in office CRE, I'll mention a few highlights with respect to that portfolio. As noted on Slide 21, office CRE represents approximately 4% of our outstanding loans and 97% of this portfolio is in market. The portfolio is very granular with an average loan size of less than $1.5 million. And the vast majority of the properties are smaller than 150,000 square feet and not located in the Central Business District. Our weighted average debt service coverage is 1.64x, and our weighted average loan-to-value is 59%.

鑑於目前對辦公室 CRE 的興趣，我將提及該產品組合的一些亮點。如幻燈片 21 所述，辦公室 CRE 約占我們未償還貸款的 4%，而該投資組合的 97% 在市場上。投資組合非常精細，平均貸款規模不到 150 萬美元。而且絕大多數房產面積小於 150,000 平方英尺，並且不位於中央商務區。我們的加權平均償債覆蓋率為 1.64 倍，加權平均貸款價值比為 59%。

Credit metrics on this portfolio are also strong with very low levels of delinquencies and only 1 basis point on nonaccrual. Additionally, we've added some disclosures, beginning on Slide 25, covering deposits, liquidity and capital. Our capital position continues to be strong. And as John noted, would remain so if regulatory ratios were changed to include AOCI.

該投資組合的信用指標也很強勁，拖欠率非常低，非應計利息僅為 1 個基點。此外，我們還添加了一些披露，從幻燈片 25 開始，涵蓋存款、流動性和資本。我們的資本狀況繼續保持強勁。正如 John 指出的那樣，如果監管比率發生變化以包括 AOCI，情況將保持不變。

All in all, while the last month of the quarter was rather tumultuous for our industry, we believe we're well positioned with a strong capital base, granular deposit funding, continued strong revenue and solid credit metrics. Operator, we'll now take questions.

總而言之，雖然本季度的最後一個月對我們的行業來說相當動盪，但我們相信我們處於有利地位，擁有強大的資本基礎、精細的存款資金、持續強勁的收入和穩健的信用指標。接線員，我們現在開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Catherine Mealor of KBW.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 KBW 的 Catherine Mealor。

John, you keep Steve up for the deposit beta question, so I thought I'd start there and just wanted to get your thoughts, Steve, on how you're thinking about the acceleration of deposit beta over the next couple of quarters?

約翰，你讓史蒂夫一直關注存款貝塔問題，所以我想我應該從那裡開始，只是想听聽你的想法，史蒂夫，你是如何考慮未來幾個季度存款貝塔加速的？

Yes, Catherine, this is Steve. Good to talk to you, and of course, John throws me the softball. So here I go. Let me just kind of first of all just talk to deposit beta. Obviously, let me kind of put it in context of margins in general. And this may be a little longer window than you want, but I think it kind of describes the overall perspective. John and Will, both mentioned, we had a really good NIM in the first quarter, 3.93%. Our guidance was somewhere for the year between 3.70% and 3.90%. Deposit costs were within our guidance, which we were really excited about. As we talk to you about margin, I'm going to give you the same guidance for 2023 with a few updates in the assumptions.

是的，凱瑟琳，這是史蒂夫。很高興和你交談，當然，約翰把壘球扔給我了。所以我走了。讓我先談談存款測試版。顯然，讓我把它放在一般利潤率的背景下。這可能比你想要的要長一點，但我認為它描述了整體視角。約翰和威爾都提到，我們第一季度的 NIM 非常好，為 3.93%。我們今年的指導價介於 3.70% 和 3.90% 之間。存款成本在我們的指導範圍內，我們對此感到非常興奮。當我們與您討論利潤率時，我將為 2023 年提供相同的指導，並對假設進行一些更新。

And just with the caveat, when the industry experienced toward the first of March, it really changed our thinking around how much liquidity to hold as well as our customers' desire for more rate-sensitive products. So as we think about the 3 assumptions, those 3 assumptions haven't changed. Number one, it's the size of our interest-earning assets. Number two, the assumption of interest rates. Then number 3 is the deposit beta question you asked.

需要注意的是，當該行業在 3 月 1 日經歷時，它確實改變了我們對持有多少流動性以及我們的客戶對利率敏感產品的渴望的想法。因此，當我們考慮這 3 個假設時，這 3 個假設沒有改變。第一，這是我們生息資產的規模。第二，利率假設。然後數字 3 是您問的存款測試問題。

So first, around interest earning assets in January, we talked about on the call, our guidance of an average $40 billion interest-earning asset base in 2023, and we have no change to that. Two, we talked about interest rates. In January, the Moody's consensus forecast was for Fed funds to move up to 5% and then be lower 25 basis points by the fourth quarter of this year. But based on the new Moody's baseline forecast, we expect Fed funds to peak at 5.25% here in about a week and then stay there all the way through 2023.

因此，首先，圍繞 1 月份的生息資產，我們在電話會議上談到了我們對 2023 年平均 400 億美元生息資產基礎的指導，我們對此沒有改變。第二，我們談到了利率。 1 月份，穆迪的普遍預測是聯邦基金利率將上升至 5%，然後在今年第四季度下降 25 個基點。但根據穆迪的新基線預測，我們預計聯邦基金利率將在大約一周內達到 5.25% 的峰值，然後一直保持到 2023 年。

So on Page 16, our graph shows our cycle-to-date beta is at 13% versus our historical beta at 24% in the last cycle. As a result of the banking industry turmoil in March, we are estimating that our deposit beta will rise -- or our deposit costs will rise 45 to 50 basis points in the second quarter bringing our cycle-to-date deposit beta into the low 20s versus our historical 24%. If the Fed stops raising rates in the second quarter based on history, we'd expect deposit costs to continue to move up at a much more gradual taste in the back half of the year. This could cause full cycle beta to increase a few percentage points.

因此，在第 16 頁上，我們的圖表顯示我們的周期至今貝塔值為 13%，而我們在上一個週期中的歷史貝塔值為 24%。由於 3 月份銀行業動盪，我們估計我們的存款貝塔係數將上升——或者我們的存款成本將在第二季度上升 45 至 50 個基點，使我們的周期至今存款貝塔係數降至 20 多歲的低點與我們歷史上的 24% 相比。如果美聯儲根據歷史在第二季度停止加息，我們預計存款成本將在今年下半年繼續以更加緩慢的速度上升。這可能會導致全週期貝塔增加幾個百分點。

To be honest and humble about the whole answer is we don't really know. It's been an unusual change in March. But having said all that, we're confident in our deposit base and it seems to be doing well. With all those new assumptions around interest rates and timing of deposit betas, we'd expect our full year 2023 NIM to stabilize in the 360 to 370 range and into 2024.

老實說和謙虛地說，我們真的不知道整個答案。這是三月份的一個不尋常的變化。但話雖如此，我們對我們的存款基礎充滿信心，而且似乎表現不錯。有了所有這些關於利率和存款貝塔時間的新假設，我們預計 2023 年全年 NIM 將穩定在 360 至 370 的範圍內並進入 2024 年。

So just one last point. If over the next 2 years, Moody's baseline is correct and Fed funds falls into the low 3s with a slightly upward sloping yield curve, the environment is very favorable for us as our interest-sensitive deposit rates will be lowered, while our assets are adjustable fixed will still reprice higher. Our deposit franchise continued to perform and provide real stable margin environment with really net interest income driven not by margin, but by growth in interest-earning assets. That's a long-winded answer, but hopefully, that gives you time.

最後一點。如果在接下來的 2 年裡，穆迪的基線是正確的，聯邦基金跌至 3s 的低點，收益率曲線略微向上傾斜，那麼環境對我們非常有利，因為我們對利率敏感的存款利率將降低，而我們的資產是可調整的固定價格仍會更高。我們的存款業務繼續發揮作用，並提供真正穩定的利潤率環境，真正的淨利息收入不是由利潤率驅動的，而是由生息資產的增長驅動的。這是一個冗長的答案，但希望能給您時間。

I thought, the deposit beta was in there somewhere.

我想，存款測試版就在某個地方。

That was awesome as it always is, very helpful. Maybe a few follow-ups to that. So on your average-weight asset comment that the size is the same at $40 billion. Is there a shift within that where you have a little more cash, maybe less loans with a more moderate loan growth outlook?

這真是太棒了，一如既往，非常有幫助。也許對此有一些後續行動。因此，在您的平均權重資產評論中，規模相同，為 400 億美元。在您擁有更多現金，貸款增長前景更溫和的貸款減少的情況下，是否存在變化？

That's right. I think we're back to the -- as John mentioned, the 4 things that everybody talked about on March 8; liquidity, credit, capital and earnings. We're probably going to carry a little bit more liquidity just through this time, just currently.

這是正確的。我想我們又回到了——正如 John 提到的，3 月 8 日每個人都在談論的 4 件事；流動性、信貸、資本和收益。就在這段時間，我們可能會攜帶更多的流動性，就在目前。

Yes. But I'd say, Catherine, not any dramatically bigger liquidity position. I think early on, we all were trying to figure out what was needed in light of all the uncertainty. And we all spent a lot of time increasing our contingent liquidity sources, and we've got to file that in the deck. And I'll say we're continuing to do that post quarter end and have increased it further from there. But -- and so having access to the liquidity is important, but I wouldn't say we're going to dramatically increased the size of balance sheet liquidity on balance sheet by big numbers.

是的。但我要說，凱瑟琳，流動性頭寸不會大幅增加。我想在早期，我們都試圖根據所有的不確定性找出需要什麼。我們都花了很多時間來增加或有流動性來源，我們必須將其記錄在案。而且我會說我們將繼續在季度結束後進行，並從那裡進一步增加。但是 - 因此獲得流動性很重要，但我不會說我們會大幅增加資產負債表上資產負債表流動性的規模。

Okay. And then back to the deposit conversation. So there's -- we're seeing a lot of remix out of noninterest-bearing into interest-bearing across the industry. So with your deposit beta guide, and you're giving us total deposit betas, that's going to include that remix. How much of a shift do you expect to continue to see out of net interest bearing within that guide?

好的。然後回到存款對話。所以有 - 我們看到整個行業中有很多從無息到有息的混合。因此，根據您的存款 Beta 指南，您將向我們提供總存款 Beta，這將包括該混音。您希望在該指南中繼續看到淨利息產生多少變化？

Catherine, when we look back at history, our DDA is -- today is 34% of our total deposits. Pre-pandemic, it was in the high 20s. So I'm not sure that it's going to go all the way back there, but you kind of have to assume that it's going to continue to drift, but we don't know. I would imagine that we would track pretty much the industry, however, that's going to play out. And I think one other thought around that is I do think it's around business deposits. And of course, as we've talked about on this call, 100 times is we have a pretty granular deposit base sort of between retail, small business and commercial. And we have that slide that shows the granularity of each. Really, the remix is primarily in the commercial space and not in small business in retail, and that's been pretty steady.

凱瑟琳，當我們回顧歷史時，我們的 DDA 今天是我們總存款的 34%。大流行前，它處於 20 多歲的高位。所以我不確定它會一直回到那裡，但你必須假設它會繼續漂移，但我們不知道。我想我們會跟踪這個行業，但是，這將會發揮作用。我認為另一個想法是我確實認為它與商業存款有關。當然，正如我們在這次電話會議上談到的那樣，100 次是我們在零售、小型企業和商業之間有一個非常精細的存款基礎。我們有一張幻燈片顯示了每一個的粒度。真的，混音主要是在商業領域，而不是在零售業的小企業中，而且這種情況非常穩定。

Maybe just one follow-up just on that point. Are you -- what kind of behavior have you seen that (inaudible) I think the deposit betas have mostly been driven on the commercial side, really across the industry. But as you look at your small business and retail piece, did you see any change in behavior or pick up, especially after the March volatility?

也許只是關於這一點的後續行動。你 - 你看到什麼樣的行為（聽不清）我認為存款貝塔主要是在商業方面推動的，真的是整個行業。但是，當您審視您的小型企業和零售業務時，您是否看到行為發生任何變化或回升，尤其是在 3 月波動之後？

Yes, I think it's probably woke the entire customer base up just around excess deposits. So there were some excess deposits that were sitting in checking. But really, primarily, if you looked at it from March 8 on, it was really more of a business remix than it really was in a retail or a small business. And then within business, there was more volatility with nonprofits where folks are managing other people's money. They were a little bit more sensitive to the issues of March 8.

是的，我認為這可能只是在超額存款周圍喚醒了整個客戶群。因此，有一些多餘的存款正在接受檢查。但實際上，主要是，如果你從 3 月 8 日開始觀察它，它實際上更像是一種商業重組，而不是零售或小型企業。然後在企業內部，非營利組織的波動性更大，人們在這些組織中管理他人的資金。他們對 3 月 8 日的問題更加敏感。

Yes, Cath, I'll give you an interesting statistic. We had our call center volume in the 2 weeks following March 8 was a normal total volume. It was 66,500-and-something calls and only 30 calls had any to do with FDIC insurance coverage, so 5 basis points of the calls, which surprised me how little call center activity we had around that subject.

是的，Cath，我會給你一個有趣的統計數據。在 3 月 8 日之後的 2 週內，我們的呼叫中心業務量是正常的。這是 66,500 多個電話，只有 30 個電話與 FDIC 保險範圍有關，所以電話的 5 個基點，這讓我感到驚訝的是我們的呼叫中心圍繞該主題的活動如此之少。

Our next question comes from Kevin Fitzsimmons of D.A. Davidson.

我們的下一個問題來自 D.A. 的 Kevin Fitzsimmons。戴維森。

I was just looking to drill down a little more into the comments about slowing balance sheet growth. So from what I remember, I don't think you guys had -- we're guiding to rapid growth. I think you had last said mid-single digit. And so if we're going even slower than that, maybe just help us with -- does that happen quickly? Does that happen steadily over the course of the year? And is that more driven by the demand and what the Fed has done -- the Feds getting what it wants in the economy? Or is it more you guys really proactively tapping on the brakes just given the economic cost of funding the loan, the credit concerns, et cetera?

我只是想深入了解有關資產負債表增長放緩的評論。因此，據我所知，我認為你們沒有——我們正在引導快速增長。我想你最後說的是中個位數。因此，如果我們比這更慢，也許只是幫助我們 - 這會很快發生嗎？這會在一年中穩定地發生嗎？這是否更多地是由需求和美聯儲所做的驅動——美聯儲在經濟中得到了它想要的東西？還是考慮到貸款的經濟成本、信用問題等，你們真的更主動地踩剎車？

Yes, Kevin, it's John. I think our previous guide for 2023 was that we would have mid-single-digit loan growth for the year. We came in at 7% in the first quarter. I can imagine that, that loan growth may be more heavily weighted to the first half of the year and things would maybe slow down in the back half of the year as you have a lack of liquidity in the system and just price discovery between buyers and sellers. So from our C&I borrower standpoint, I think that business is still good, but a lot of them are kind of in a wait-and-see mode before they make major capital expenditures. The M&A activity slowed down in C&I.

是的，凱文，我是約翰。我認為我們之前對 2023 年的指導是我們今年的貸款增長將達到中個位數。我們在第一季度的增長率為 7%。我可以想像，今年上半年貸款增長的權重可能更大，而下半年情況可能會放緩，因為系統缺乏流動性，買家和買家之間只有價格發現。賣家。因此，從我們 C&I 借款人的角度來看，我認為業務仍然不錯，但他們中的很多人在進行重大資本支出之前都處於觀望狀態。 C&I 的併購活動放緩。

Our CRE has slowed significantly, and we're seeing some of our peer banks back out of that space. And so we want to be selective there. Multifamily is still strong, because a lot of folks are still priced out of a single-family market, and we've got a lot of population migration here. And industrial demand is still real strong, near the ports, particularly. We've got less than vacancy rates in Savannah and Charleston on industrial. So I just -- I think there's a lag effect, Kevin, with the Fed interest rate increases, we were growing loans in the mid-teens in 2022, 7% in 2023 in the first quarter. I still think the mid-single digits for the full year feels about right.

我們的 CRE 已經顯著放緩，我們看到我們的一些同行銀行退出了這個領域。所以我們想在那裡有選擇性。多戶住宅仍然很強勁，因為很多人仍然無法承受單戶住宅市場的價格，而且我們這裡有很多人口遷移。工業需求仍然強勁，尤其是在港口附近。我們的空缺率低於薩凡納和查爾斯頓的工業空缺率。所以我只是 - 我認為有滯後效應，凱文，隨著美聯儲加息，我們在 2022 年中期增加了貸款，2023 年第一季度增加了 7%。我仍然認為全年的中等個位數感覺是正確的。

Okay, great. And maybe just a quick check on expenses. I know -- I think last quarter, you told us about a $950 million run rate for the year, and now we're -- I think you said expenses came in a little better than your expectations. [Are we] -- is that still the outlook? Or given that things are getting tougher on the top line, is there going to be more scrutiny on the expense line?

好的，太好了。也許只是快速檢查一下費用。我知道——我想上個季度，你告訴我們今年的運行率為 9.5 億美元，現在我們——我想你說的支出比你的預期要好一些。 [我們] - 這仍然是前景嗎？或者鑑於頂線的情況變得越來越艱難，是否會對費用線進行更多審查？

Yes, Kevin, it's Will. Hopefully, we're always applying the appropriate level of scrutiny to our NIE base. And everybody applying that ownership culture as they think through their NIE base. I did reference we're a little better than target. I think we had in the first quarter maybe budget about $1 million more, so pretty much on top of it. We still think the $950 million is a good number. Obviously, in an environment like this, though, you do rethink, do we need to necessarily make this higher or that higher that we may have had approved in the budget, is that something we can hold off on and make sure that we need to do it?

是的，凱文，是威爾。希望我們始終對我們的 NIE 基地進行適當程度的審查。每個人都在通過他們的 NIE 基地思考時應用這種所有權文化。我確實提到我們比目標好一點。我認為我們在第一季度的預算可能增加了大約 100 萬美元，幾乎超出了它。我們仍然認為 9.5 億美元是一個不錯的數字。顯然，在這樣的環境中，雖然，你確實會重新考慮，我們是否有必要提高這個或那個我們可能已經在預算中批准的更高的水平，是我們可以推遲的事情，並確保我們需要做嗎？

Those kind of decisions that hopefully, our team of owners will think through that way. There are factors that are harder to predict. One is loan production volume and the impact that has on the capitalization of loan origination costs, which is an offset NIE [still] lower production leads to lower cost offset in that regard are higher NIE. But sitting here through the first quarter, I'm pleased we're a little bit ahead of budget on NIE. I still think our guidance for the full year feels about right at this point.

希望我們的所有者團隊能夠以這種方式思考這些決定。有些因素更難預測。一個是貸款生產量和對貸款發放成本資本化的影響，這是一個抵消 NIE [still] 較低的產量導致較低的成本抵消在這方面是較高的 NIE。但是在第一季度坐在這裡，我很高興我們比 NIE 的預算提前了一點。我仍然認為我們對全年的指導在這一點上感覺是正確的。

Yes. And just what I would add to that, Kevin, is just big picture is that we're continuing to work on our platforms and spend money on those to make sure that we've got a really good customer and employee experience. And we think that that's going to pay dividends out in '24, '25. And so to Will's point, we're always trying to manage expenses as the lowest confident denominator and ultimately create. And then there'll always be opportunities again in environments like this where there'll be teams of people and other things that will have the opportunity to hire, and you want to have the ability to do that. But I think within all that, we're going to manage the expense base.

是的。凱文，我要補充的是，大局是我們將繼續在我們的平台上工作，並在這些平台上投入資金，以確保我們擁有真正良好的客戶和員工體驗。我們認為這將在 24 年、25 年派發紅利。因此，就 Will 的觀點而言，我們一直在努力將支出作為最低信心分母來管理並最終創造。然後，在這樣的環境中，總會有機會再次出現，在這種環境中，會有團隊和其他事物有機會招聘，而你希望有能力做到這一點。但我認為在這一切中，我們將管理費用基礎。

Yes. And I wanted to point out, I'll make, too, just as you think about modeling, our typical -- most of our employees' annual increase cycle is a July 1 increase. So you'll see that's third quarter event every year.

是的。我想指出，就像你考慮建模一樣，我也想指出，我們的典型 - 我們大多數員工的年度增長周期是 7 月 1 日的增長。所以你會看到這是每年的第三季度活動。

Okay. I appreciate that. And then, Steve, one thing I just -- it was a nice rebound quarter for correspondent. Just wondering if that's a sustainable pace, or how we should think about that line?

好的。我很感激。然後，史蒂夫，我剛才說的一件事——對於記者來說，這是一個很好的反彈季度。只是想知道這是否是一個可持續的步伐，或者我們應該如何考慮這條線？

No, to your point, correspondent had a great quarter this quarter. Kind of the way that we think about that business is, obviously, the interest rate swap revenues had a good -- really good quarter. Fixed income is difficult right now just because of the way the yield curve shaped and cash on bank's balance sheet. But I kind of -- the way I kind of describe it is until the Fed has done hiking rates and we get some stability, which should come in the next maybe towards the back half of the year. These interest-sensitive businesses like mortgage and correspondent probably will stay lower. So I wouldn't expect -- I mean the first quarter is really good, and I would kind of go back to our original guide on that to be in that 55 to 65 basis points of assets until -- the noninterest income to be that until the Fed starts raising rates, and then we kind of go to 60 to 70 after that, because we just need some stability for those businesses.

不，就您而言，記者本季度表現出色。顯然，我們對這項業務的看法是，利率互換收入有一個很好的——非常好的季度。固定收益現在很困難，只是因為收益率曲線的形狀和銀行資產負債表上的現金。但我有點 - 我有點描述它的方式是直到美聯儲完成加息並且我們獲得一些穩定，這應該在明年下半年出現。這些對利率敏感的業務，如抵押貸款和代理業務，可能會保持在較低水平。所以我不希望 - 我的意思是第一季度真的很好，我會回到我們原來的指南，即資產的 55 到 65 個基點，直到 - 非利息收入是直到美聯儲開始加息，然後我們會達到 60 到 70，因為我們只需要為這些企業提供一些穩定性。

Our next question comes from Stephen Scouten of Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Stephen Scouten。

I guess I was kind of curious at a high level, how do you think, if in any way, your business model has kind of changed with all the turmoil from March 8 and beyond? Everybody seems to think a regional banking model is somehow dead now. I'm just kind of curious what your views are on that at a high level and how you think your business model may or may not have changed.

我想我有點好奇，你認為自 3 月 8 日及以後的所有動蕩之後，你的商業模式發生了怎樣的變化？每個人似乎都認為區域性銀行模式現在不知何故已經死了。我只是有點好奇您對此有何看法，以及您認為您的商業模式可能會或可能不會改變。

Yes, Stephen, it's John. I think about our business model and a couple of things come to mind. Number 1 is the local market leadership in our business model. We have 41 regional presidents, and they manage their own balance sheet and their own income statement. And I think that has proved to be very valuable when it comes to managing deposit cost and deposit betas. In a headquarter-centric type of business model, you're making all of these interest rate decisions at the headquarters. And I think it's much, much better for the local market leaders to figure out where they need to shoot the bullets on pricing deposits for their very best customers rather than someone guessing hundreds of miles away. So I think that part of our model has been very, very valuable.

是的，斯蒂芬，是約翰。我想到了我們的商業模式，想到了一些事情。排名第一的是我們商業模式中的本地市場領導地位。我們有 41 位區域總裁，他們管理自己的資產負債表和損益表。我認為這在管理存款成本和存款貝塔方面已被證明是非常有價值的。在以總部為中心的商業模式中，所有這些利率決策都是在總部做出的。而且我認為，對於當地市場領導者來說，弄清楚他們需要在哪里為他們最好的客戶定價押金而不是猜測數百英里之外的人要好得多。所以我認為我們模型的這一部分非常非常有價值。

The other piece of the model is, it's a diversified model. You heard Steve talk about the diversity of the deposit base; 1/3 retail, 1/3 small business, 1/3 commercial treasury. And if you go back to 2008, 2009, what got the banks in trouble? It was concentration on the loan portfolio. You look at this cycle, we've got banks in trouble with concentration on the deposit side. So I think our decentralized leadership model has proven to be very valuable. And I think the diversity of our business mix has proved to be very valuable and kept some stability. So I don't know that we're thinking about this crisis as something that's going to change the way we do business. I think it's proven to be resilient.

該模型的另一部分是，它是一個多元化的模型。你聽過史蒂夫談論存款基礎的多樣性； 1/3 零售，1/3 小型企業，1/3 商業金庫。如果回到 2008 年、2009 年，是什麼讓銀行陷入困境？它專注於貸款組合。你看看這個週期，我們的銀行在存款方面遇到了麻煩。所以我認為我們的去中心化領導模式已經被證明是非常有價值的。而且我認為我們業務組合的多樣性已被證明是非常有價值的，並且保持了一定的穩定性。所以我不知道我們是否將這場危機視為將改變我們開展業務的方式的事情。我認為它被證明是有彈性的。

Great. That's really helpful. Congrats on a really great stable quarter. Appreciate it.

偉大的。這真的很有幫助。祝賀一個非常穩定的季度。欣賞它。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Our next question comes from Michael Rose of Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Michael Rose。

Just wanted to go back to mortgage for a second. The gain on sale margin popped up. You had a better quarter if you back out the MSR gain. I think you just made some comments, I might have missed them. But -- just wanted to get the kind of the outlook there. And then on the balance sheet side, you've been portfolioing more of the mortgages, which obviously contributed to this quarter's growth. Just wanted to get the outlook there for how much you might plan on a quarterly basis to portfolios going forward.

只是想回到抵押貸款一秒鐘。銷售利潤率突然上升。如果你放棄 MSR 收益，你會有一個更好的季度。我想你剛剛發表了一些評論，我可能錯過了。但是 - 只是想了解那裡的前景。然後在資產負債表方面，你一直在投資更多的抵押貸款，這顯然對本季度的增長做出了貢獻。只是想了解一下您可能每季度計劃對未來的投資組合進行多少規劃。

Sure, Michael. This is Steve. Yes, you're right. The gain on sales did come back a little bit this quarter. I think our total production was around $556 million of which we portfolioed about $400 million of that. So not quite. I think it's 72% portfolio. The adjustable arms on that was 78% of that. So most of it is just we're putting on in our adjustable rate mortgages. As we kind of think about the future, we don't see a huge run-up in that business for a while until things stabilize a little bit. I think what we're seeing most and why we have so much portfolio production is we have an owner person who is building a house just on that inventory, and so they're doing a kind of a CP loan that firms out into an arm on our balance sheet. Typically, these are professional doctors. I think most -- I think the number was in the mid-40% of our portfolio production with that in the first quarter.

當然，邁克爾。這是史蒂夫。你是對的。本季度銷售收益確實有所回升。我認為我們的總產量約為 5.56 億美元，其中我們投資了約 4 億美元。所以不完全是。我認為這是 72% 的投資組合。可調節臂佔其中的 78%。所以大部分只是我們在我們的可調整利率抵押貸款中投入。當我們考慮未來時，在事情稍微穩定下來之前，我們暫時看不到該業務的巨大增長。我認為我們最常看到的以及為什麼我們有如此多的投資組合生產是因為我們有一個所有者正在根據該庫存建造房屋，因此他們正在提供一種 CP 貸款，將其固定在一個手臂上在我們的資產負債表上。通常，這些是專業醫生。我認為最多 - 我認為這個數字在我們的投資組合生產中佔第一季度的 40% 左右。

So we're seeing a lot of those types of opportunities, which obviously sees in the wealth management and so on. But we're not seeing any huge pickup in sort of a traditional secondary business. At least right now, certainly, it's come off the lows a little bit. But my sense is, like anything else, like all these fee businesses, these are opportunities for us to build -- to continue to rebuild and build these businesses. And so we're actively recruiting mortgage bankers. We're actively recruiting some of our correspondent group. We're actively doing all those things, not because it's going to pay off in the next 3 to 6 months, but because it will pay off in the next 12 to 24. And so that's kind of how we're thinking about investing in those businesses.

因此，我們看到了很多此類機會，這顯然體現在財富管理等領域。但我們沒有看到傳統的二級業務有任何巨大的回升。至少現在，當然，它已經脫離了低點。但我的感覺是，就像其他任何事情一樣，就像所有這些收費業務一樣，這些都是我們建立的機會 - 繼續重建和建立這些業務。因此，我們正在積極招募抵押貸款銀行家。我們正在積極招募我們的一些記者團。我們正在積極做所有這些事情，不是因為它會在接下來的 3 到 6 個月內得到回報，而是因為它會在接下來的 12 到 24 個月內得到回報。這就是我們考慮投資的方式那些企業。

Very helpful. Maybe just going back to deposits, just wanted to kind of talk about flows. So obviously, you guys added some broker this quarter. You had the seasonal decline in public funds. Just excluding those 2 kind of impacts, the core deposits obviously went down. Can you just talk about trends kind of since everything happened in early March? And have you seen balances stabilize to maybe perhaps grow? And then what is the plan going forward to grow core deposits?

很有幫助。也許只是回到存款，只是想談談流量。很明顯，你們本季度增加了一些經紀人。你有公共資金的季節性下降。除去這兩種影響，核心存款明顯下降。你能談談趨勢嗎，因為一切都發生在三月初？您是否看到餘額穩定到可能增長？那麼未來增加核心存款的計劃是什麼？

Mike, it's Will. I'll start, and maybe John or Steve can jump in and elaborate. I'd say we -- the events on March 8 probably caused us to be a little more focused on deposits within our market and -- within our various markets. And so our sales hat on the deposit side became a little more important from that point forward. And so I think what you'll see from this point forward, I think, is a lot more activity in that regard. If you look at the March 8 to March 31 activity, essentially, in that period, you saw our commercial deposits down about $400 million.

邁克，是威爾。我會開始，也許 John 或 Steve 可以插手詳細說明。我想說我們 - 3 月 8 日的事件可能使我們更加關注我們市場內的存款以及 - 我們各個市場內的存款。因此，從那時起，我們在存款方面的銷售帽子變得更加重要。所以我認為從現在開始你會看到在這方面有更多的活動。如果你看一下 3 月 8 日至 3 月 31 日的活動，基本上，在那段時間裡，你會看到我們的商業存款減少了大約 4 億美元。

Our other deposits, the rest of the bank is up about $100 million. So net-net, over that period, you're down about $300 million. We have a lot of swings in the various categories, obviously, from period to period depending on what's going on. So that's not a real precise measure. But like I said, we were surprised how few calls we had the call center. Maybe John can touch on some of the activity we have with the outreach we did with some of our customers right around that time.

我們的其他存款，銀行的其餘部分增加了大約 1 億美元。所以淨淨，在那段時間裡，你減少了大約 3 億美元。很明顯，我們在不同的類別中有很多波動，從一個時期到另一個時期取決於正在發生的事情。所以這不是一個真正精確的衡量標準。但就像我說的，我們很驚訝呼叫中心的電話很少。也許 John 可以談談我們在那個時候與一些客戶進行的外展活動。

Yes. I go back to January, even before the March 8 events. And we were seeing some drawdowns of deposits in January. And I don't know that a lot of that was the public funds piece, that's seasonal. Things stabilized in February. So we were feeling really, really good about the stability of the deposit portfolio in February and then naturally, things picked up and the runoff picked up in March. April, we started this deposit campaign and things stabilize again until you get the Tax Day. So that's kind of the ebbs and the flows in the last few months.

是的。我回到一月份，甚至在 3 月 8 日事件之前。我們在 1 月份看到一些存款減少。而且我不知道其中很多是公共資金，那是季節性的。 2 月份情況趨於穩定。因此，我們對 2 月份存款組合的穩定性感覺非常非常好，然後自然而然地，3 月份的情況有所好轉，徑流也有所增加。 4 月，我們開始了這項存款活動，事情再次穩定下來，直到你得到納稅日。所以這就是過去幾個月的潮起潮落。

But for us, Michael, the important thing was after March 8 that we instilled confidence in our frontline bankers, and we met with probably 100 or more of our leaders on that Monday morning. And I think the market correctly identified the risk to the system were uninsured deposits and the size of deposit accounts. And we had some great data Monday morning to share with our bankers that SouthState had the lowest average deposit size of any of our peers. And we had one of the lowest uninsured percentages of total deposits. I think that gave our bankers a lot of confidence, and that confidence in turn translated to our customers' confidence.

但對我們來說，邁克爾，重要的是在 3 月 8 日之後，我們對一線銀行家灌輸了信心，並且在那個星期一早上我們會見了大約 100 名或更多的領導人。而且我認為市場正確地識別了系統的風險是未投保的存款和存款賬戶的規模。週一早上我們有一些很棒的數據可以與我們的銀行家分享，即 SouthState 的平均存款規模是我們所有同行中最低的。我們是存款總額中未投保比例最低的國家之一。我認為這給了我們的銀行家很大的信心，而這種信心反過來又轉化為我們客戶的信心。

One other data point, too, I mentioned the commercial deposits. Our commercial line of credit utilization fell by roughly 2% during the quarter. It looks like businesses tend to use their cash before they use our cash, so to speak.

另一個數據點，我也提到了商業存款。我們的商業信貸額度利用率在本季度下降了約 2%。可以這麼說，看起來企業傾向於在使用我們的現金之前使用他們的現金。

That makes a lot of sense. Maybe just finally for me. I know capital is a precious commodity at this point, but the stock has definitely come in, you guys have a buyback in place. Any thoughts on using it? And if not, kind of near term, what would kind of change the calculus for you?

這很有意義。也許最後對我來說。我知道此時資本是一種寶貴的商品，但股票肯定已經進來了，你們已經進行了回購。對使用它有什麼想法嗎？如果不是，短期內，您的微積分會發生什麼變化？

Yes. I think in the near term, Michael, we think capital -- continue to allow capital to accrete and build is wise. And that having capital as a strength will allow us to be more opportunistic, should some opportunities to develop coming out of this. And as John mentioned in his prepared remarks, we've got a history of doing that. So in our view for the foreseeable future, we continue to plan to let capital accrete. It'd be good to get some guidance, some clarity on regulatory changes and even the regulatory changes that don't necessarily affect banks below $100 billion statutorily or regulation-wise, that kind of guidance often flows downhill. So we'll want to be able to understand and digest that as well. Longer term, you have a clearer picture on credit, growth, et cetera. We'll allow us to figure out what's the best way to use what's hopefully still a very good capital formation rate.

是的。我認為在短期內，邁克爾，我們認為資本——繼續允許資本積累和建設是明智的。如果有一些發展機會，那麼擁有資本作為優勢將使我們更加投機取巧。正如約翰在他準備好的發言中提到的那樣，我們有這樣做的歷史。所以在我們看來，在可預見的未來，我們會繼續計劃讓資本增值。最好能獲得一些指導，明確監管變化，甚至監管變化不一定會影響法定或監管方面低於 1000 億美元的銀行，這種指導通常會走下坡路。所以我們也希望能夠理解和消化它。從長遠來看，您對信貸、增長等有更清晰的了解。我們將允許我們弄清楚什麼是使用希望仍然非常好的資本形成率的最佳方法。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Brody Preston of UBS.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的布羅迪普雷斯頓。

Steve, I wanted to follow up just on the line of thought on the noninterest-bearing. I know it's really hard to predict. But you did give expectations for margin for the rest of the year. And so it sounded like you're expecting some further mix there based on the other comments you gave. So I just wanted to ask, within your margin guidance, what are you guys expecting for noninterest-bearing deposit mix?

史蒂夫，我想跟進關於不計息的思路。我知道這真的很難預測。但你確實給出了今年剩餘時間的利潤率預期。因此，根據您提供的其他評論，聽起來您希望在那裡進行進一步的混音。所以我只想問，在你們的保證金指導範圍內，你們對無息存款組合有什麼期望？

Yes. I don't know that we would say that publicly. We just don't know, honestly. But we have some -- we definitely think there's some movement from 34% into the high 20s. We don't know if all that happens in the next 2 quarters or it happens over the next 18 months. We're just not really sure. So I would just assume that we're going to be a lot like the industry and seeing the continued remix. I think this quarter was about 7%. So I would assume that, that probably trends maybe another quarter or so. And then after that, stabilizes. Because I think what's happening right now is there's a wake-up moment in March 8, and that probably I would expect until the Fed stops raising rates, let's assume they stop raising rates in May that there is some remix over this next quarter. And then we probably get the most of that remix out of the picture, I would think that it will dribble in over the next 2 to 4 quarters after that.

是的。我不知道我們會公開這麼說。老實說，我們只是不知道。但我們有一些 - 我們絕對認為從 34% 到 20% 左右有一些變化。我們不知道這一切是在接下來的兩個季度內發生，還是在接下來的 18 個月內發生。我們只是不太確定。所以我只是假設我們會像這個行業一樣看到持續的混音。我認為這個季度大約是 7%。所以我認為，這可能會在另一個季度左右出現趨勢。然後在那之後，穩定下來。因為我認為現在正在發生的事情是 3 月 8 日會有一個喚醒時刻，我可能會預計到美聯儲停止加息，讓我們假設他們在 5 月停止加息，下個季度會有一些變化。然後我們可能會從圖片中獲得大部分混音，我認為它會在那之後的接下來的 2 到 4 個季度中運球。

Got it. That's helpful. I did also want to ask as some on the correspondent bank, could you give us a sense for what amount of your deposits come from your correspondent relationships and how those trended from 12/31 to 3/31?

知道了。這很有幫助。作為代理行的一些人，我確實也想問一下，您能告訴我們有多少存款來自您的代理關係，以及從 12 月 31 日到 3 月 31 日的趨勢如何？

Yes. That correspondent business, we have a couple of hundred million dollars in DDA, a few hundred million dollars in money market accounts, maybe a couple of hundred million and (inaudible) I'm going to guess $600 million maybe. We've always been pretty intentional about that business relative to being a fee income business versus a deposit gathering business. And we do gather deposits. We have about $1.5 billion sits off balance sheet with our -- with the EBA, which we sort of all their wires. And ACH has come through us but instead of us putting that $1.5 billion on our balance sheet, we send it to the Fed. So we've always been pretty disciplined around how much of that we wanted to put on our balance sheet at any point in time. So hopefully, that's helpful.

是的。那個代理業務，我們有幾億美元的 DDA，幾億美元的貨幣市場賬戶，可能有幾億美元，而且（聽不清）我猜可能有 6 億美元。相對於作為收費收入業務與存款收集業務，我們一直非常有意識地關注該業務。我們確實收集存款。我們有大約 15 億美元的資產負債表與我們的 - 與 EBA，我們對他們的所有電匯進行了分類。 ACH 已經通過我們，但我們沒有將這 15 億美元放在資產負債表上，而是將其發送給了美聯儲。因此，在任何時間點，我們都希望將多少資金放在資產負債表上，因此我們一直非常有紀律。希望這會有所幫助。

No, that is. I appreciate that. And then I had 2 last questions. I appreciated the office slide. I did want to ask, is that -- is their owner-occupied office included within that 4% of the total portfolio that you put out there? And if there is, do you have a sense for what that portion is?

不，就是這樣。我很感激。然後我有最後兩個問題。我很欣賞辦公室幻燈片。我確實想問，那是——他們的業主自用辦公室是否包括在你在那裡放置的總投資組合的 4% 之內？如果有，你知道那部分是什麼嗎？

That's the nonowner-occupied office space, Brody.

那是非業主自用的辦公空間，布羅迪。

Got it. Got it. And then I did just want to ask again on the nonowner-occupied portion, I guess, maybe I should have triangulated the office exposure before I ask that question, but you did give the other nonowner-occupied CRE portfolios. I did just want to ask, on the hotel and the nursing home, I know the nursing home is a very small portion for you, but I did want to ask what's kind of -- what causes those 2 loan portfolios to have higher substandard and special mention ratios than the rest of the book? Particularly interested in the nursing home. Just wondering if there's anything special going on there.

知道了。知道了。然後我只是想再次詢問非所有者佔用的部分，我想，也許我應該在問這個問題之前對辦公室曝光進行三角測量，但你確實給出了其他非所有者佔用的 CRE 投資組合。我只是想問，關於酒店和療養院，我知道療養院對你來說只是很小的一部分，但我確實想問是什麼——是什麼導致這兩個貸款組合的不合格率和與本書其他部分相比的特殊提及率？對養老院特別感興趣。只是想知道那裡是否有什麼特別的事情發生。

Yes, you bet. The hotels is a carryover from COVID. And as we get financial statements on these hotels, we're continually upgrading those, and we see that trend continuing. So that's just a hangover from COVID. Actually, hotels are performing very, very well right now. The convention business is about back to normal. Tourism in Florida is about back to normal. So we do not forecast problems in the near term in the hotel space. On the assisted living space, it's less than 1% of our loans. But we had a couple of new facilities that came online during COVID. And basically, it's health care costs, the fear of COVID and the facilities are a little slower to become occupied.

是的，你打賭。酒店是 COVID 的遺留物。當我們獲得這些酒店的財務報表時，我們會不斷升級這些酒店，而且我們看到這種趨勢仍在繼續。所以這只是 COVID 的後遺症。實際上，酒店現在的表現非常非常好。會議業務即將恢復正常。佛羅里達州的旅遊業即將恢復正常。因此，我們預計短期內酒店領域不會出現問題。在輔助生活空間方面，它不到我們貸款的 1%。但是我們有幾個新設施在 COVID 期間上線。基本上，這是醫療保健費用、對 COVID 的恐懼和設施被佔用的速度要慢一些。

Got it. Do you -- I guess, I know it's really a small portion of your book. But is that a trend, I guess, when you kind of look across assisted living facilities and the deals that kind of come across your desk? Are you seeing kind of that slowness in lease-up or an occupancy across some of the newer facilities that are being built versus maybe some of the older ones that already had higher occupancy rates?

知道了。你——我想，我知道這只是你書中的一小部分。但我猜，當你瀏覽輔助生活設施和你辦公桌上的交易時，這是一種趨勢嗎？您是否看到正在建造的一些較新設施的租賃速度放緩或入住率與一些已經擁有較高入住率的舊設施相比？

Yes. I just think that, that is a challenged space because of COVID, and I think it will be slow to come back to what it was prior to COVID. So I mean I think it's just an overall COVID issue.

是的。我只是認為，由於 COVID，這是一個充滿挑戰的空間，我認為恢復到 COVID 之前的狀態會很慢。所以我的意思是我認為這只是一個整體的 COVID 問題。

Yes, Brody, we saw the most have problems with labor inflation and labor shortages. They kind of got it from all ends. As you said, it's not a big space for us, nor is it a big -- much of an appetite for us. But -- and we've had those on downgraded status really for a good while now.

是的，布羅迪，我們看到大多數都存在勞動力通脹和勞動力短缺的問題。他們從各個方面都得到了它。正如你所說，這對我們來說不是一個很大的空間，對我們來說也不是一個很大的胃口。但是 - 我們已經讓那些降級狀態真的有一段時間了。

We've got 2 nonaccrual assisted living facilities, both of them are current and other payments. So we don't anticipate a loss there.

我們有 2 個非應計的輔助生活設施，它們都是當前付款和其他付款。所以我們預計不會有損失。

On that note, it's 59% of our nonperforming loans are current [on] payments.

在這一點上，我們 59% 的不良貸款是當前 [on] 付款。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Brandon King of Truist Securities.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Brandon King。

So I just wanted to know if you could help us how we think about with loan yields and how they could increase from current levels, maybe get benefit from fixed rate loan repricing. Steve, I know you mentioned that 45 to 50 basis points increase in deposit costs in the second quarter. But how much can you offset that with loan yields repricing? And then how does that kind of trend towards the later half of the year when the (inaudible) pauses?

所以我只是想知道你是否可以幫助我們如何考慮貸款收益率以及它們如何從當前水平增加，也許可以從固定利率貸款重新定價中獲益。史蒂夫，我知道你提到第二季度存款成本增加了 45 到 50 個基點。但是，您可以通過重新定價貸款收益率來抵消多少？那麼當（聽不清）暫停時，這種趨勢如何走向今年下半年？

Yes, Brandon, it's a good question, and that's kind of why we think there's stability in the back half of the year with margin. If you look at our book, we've got about -- we have a slide in the deck that talks about our fixed rate book. So call about half of it is fixed rate. We've got about -- so that's about $15 billion or so. We've got about $8.7 billion that's floating daily, so that probably has one more rate hike in it. And then we have about $3.6 billion that is going to be adjustable here in the next 12 months, and its weighted average rate is 4.07%.

是的，布蘭登，這是一個很好的問題，這就是為什麼我們認為下半年利潤率穩定的原因。如果你看一下我們的書，我們就會知道——我們在甲板上有一張幻燈片談論我們的固定利率書。所以調用大約一半是固定費率。我們已經得到了——所以這大約是 150 億美元左右。我們每天有大約 87 億美元在浮動，因此其中可能還有一次加息。然後我們有大約 36 億美元將在未來 12 個月內在這裡進行調整，其加權平均利率為 4.07%。

So if it's based on a 1-year treasury or what have you, likely that's going to reprice in the (inaudible) somewhere. And then we have some other adjustable that will reprice up $2.6 billion, they'll reprice out past further than the year. So as we think about loan yields, we had a pretty significant move in loan yields, I think it's 41 basis points for the portfolio in the first quarter. I would say that probably will be 15 to 20 over the next couple of quarters. And maybe we crest out at the at end of the year somewhere between 5.50 and 5.75, somewhere in there.

因此，如果它基於 1 年期國庫券或你有什麼，可能會在某個地方（聽不清）重新定價。然後我們還有其他一些可調整的，將重新定價 26 億美元，他們將重新定價超過一年。因此，當我們考慮貸款收益率時，我們的貸款收益率發生了相當大的變化，我認為第一季度的投資組合為 41 個基點。我會說在接下來的幾個季度中可能會是 15 到 20。也許我們會在今年年底達到 5.50 和 5.75 之間的某個地方，在那裡的某個地方。

Got it. Got it. Very, very helpful. And then on the deposit side, what is kind of the continued appetite for broker deposits? And could you share kind of what the rate and maturity to broker deposits were that you raised in the quarter?

知道了。知道了。非常非常有幫助。然後在存款方面，經紀人存款的持續需求是什麼？您能否分享一下您在本季度提高的經紀人存款的利率和期限？

Yes, sure, Brandon. If you kind of -- I'm going to give you a short answer and a long answer. The short answer is we did about $1.25 billion at about -- is right out of 5% coupon, and it's got 3/4 of the year duration. So that's the short answer.

是的，當然，布蘭登。如果你有點 - 我會給你一個簡短的答案和一個長的答案。簡短的回答是我們做了大約 12.5 億美元，大約是 5% 的息票，而且它有 3/4 的年期。這就是簡短的答案。

The longer answer is, if you kind of look back at these times of stress times when -- like I'll go back to the March of 2020, we sort of did the same thing. We borrowed, I think, about $1.1 billion or [$1.2] billion of broker deposits because it was really uncertain in March of 2020 about small businesses, pandemic. So the way we think about it is that's a source that we can get to quickly that we'd sort of bolster the balance sheet. But over time, we would expect that to probably continue to ebb down. If you went to pre-cycle, pre pandemic in December of '19, I think we had about 3.5% of our assets were in either home loan bank or broker deposits. So that's probably a good long-term average. Today we're at 5%. My guess is we'll get back down over time.

更長的答案是，如果你回顧一下這些壓力時期——就像我回到 2020 年 3 月，我們做了同樣的事情。我認為，我們藉了大約 11 億美元或 [12 億美元] 經紀人存款，因為在 2020 年 3 月，小企業、大流行病真的不確定。所以我們考慮它的方式是我們可以快速獲得的來源，我們可以在某種程度上加強資產負債表。但隨著時間的推移，我們預計這可能會繼續下降。如果你在 19 年 12 月進入周期前、大流行前，我認為我們大約有 3.5% 的資產是在家庭貸款銀行或經紀人存款中。所以這可能是一個很好的長期平均值。今天我們是 5%。我的猜測是我們會隨著時間的推移恢復原狀。

Makes sense. And then lastly, on credit, net charge-offs continue to be very low, and some of your peers have already seen some normalization of blips. I'm just curious just how long -- much longer do you think you can keep net charge-offs at this level? And kind of when do you think that pace of normalization will start to begin?

說得通。最後，在信貸方面，淨沖銷仍然很低，你的一些同行已經看到了一些正常化的現象。我只是好奇多久 - 你認為你可以將淨沖銷保持在這個水平多久？您認為正常化的步伐何時會開始？

Yes. Good question, and we'll have to just see how this cycle unfolds. But for the quarter, we actually have net loan recoveries. And I think we mentioned in the prepared remarks, we've set aside $123 million of reserves for only $3 million in the last year. But I think if you look at the loan portfolio, we've got a lot of detail in the appendix there about our loan to values. They're in the high 50s. So we feel like we've got great equity and great sponsorship with our clients. We're just going to have to see how this cycle plays out. This is unlike anything we've -- we face in our careers from a liquidity standpoint, but we like our hand in the book that we've got.

是的。好問題，我們只需要看看這個週期是如何展開的。但是對於本季度，我們實際上有淨貸款回收。我想我們在準備好的發言中提到，去年我們僅用 300 萬美元就撥出了 1.23 億美元的儲備金。但我認為，如果你看一下貸款組合，我們在附錄中有很多關於我們貸款價值的細節。他們在 50 多歲。所以我們覺得我們在客戶中獲得了很大的公平和讚助。我們只需要看看這個週期是如何進行的。這不同於我們所擁有的任何東西——從流動性的角度來看，我們在我們的職業生涯中所面臨的，但我們喜歡我們所擁有的這本書。

Our next question comes from David Bishop of Hovde Group.

我們的下一個問題來自 Hovde Group 的 David Bishop。

I had to jump on later, so I apologize if this question has been asked and answered. But (inaudible) just noticed the runoff in short-term liquidity here and borrowings here. Is that just the (inaudible) of cautiousness, given the dislocation this quarter? And how should we think about that cash and short-term investments trending through the rest of the year?

我不得不稍後繼續，所以如果有人提出並回答了這個問題，我深表歉意。但是（聽不清）剛剛注意到這裡的短期流動性和借款的流失。考慮到本季度的錯位，這只是（聽不清）謹慎嗎？我們應該如何看待今年餘下時間的現金和短期投資趨勢？

Yes, David, this is Steve. What we reiterated earlier was kind of that mid-single-digit loan growth. We reiterated a $40 billion interest-earning asset base. So we would expect -- I think we ended up a little bit higher than that if you looked at the spot basis on interest-earning assets at the end of the quarter with a little bit more cash. I'd imagine that cash would come down a little bit. But that's sort of our guide. So I don't think it's a huge move either way.

是的，大衛，這是史蒂夫。我們之前重申的是那種中個位數的貸款增長。我們重申了 400 億美元的生息資產基礎。所以我們預計 - 我認為如果你在本季度末用更多現金查看生息資產的現貨基礎，我們最終會比那個高一點。我想現金會下降一點點。但這就是我們的指南。所以我認為無論哪種方式，這都不是一個巨大的舉措。

At this stage, we currently have no further questions. I'll hand back over to the management team for any final remarks.

在這個階段，我們目前沒有進一步的問題。我會把最後的評論交還給管理團隊。

Yes. Thanks for joining us this morning. I know there was a lot of earnings releases yesterday. It's a busy morning. I appreciate you joining us. If you have any questions on your modeling, don't hesitate to give us a ring. Hope you have a great day.

是的。感謝您今天早上加入我們。我知道昨天有很多收益發布。這是一個忙碌的早晨。感謝您加入我們。如果您對建模有任何疑問，請隨時給我們打電話。希望你今天過得愉快。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。您現在可以斷開線路。