桑普拉能源 (SRE) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to Sempra's fourth quarter earnings call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn it over to Glen Donovan. Please go ahead.

大家好，歡迎參加 Sempra 第四季財報電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。現在，我想把發言權交給格倫多諾萬 (Glen Donovan)。請繼續。

Good morning and welcome to Sempra's fourth quarter 2024 earnings call. A live webcast of this teleconference and slide presentation are available on our website under our events and presentation section. We have several members of our management team with us today, including Jeff Martin, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Karen Sedgwick, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Justin Bird, Executive Vice President and Chief Executive Officer of Sempra Infrastructure; Allen Nye, Chief Executive Officer of Oncor; Don Clevenger, Chief Financial Officer of Oncor; Caroline Winn, Chief Executive Officer of SDG&E; Peter Wall, Senior Vice President, Controller and Chief Accounting Officer; and other members of our senior management team.

早安，歡迎參加 Sempra 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。本次電話會議的現場網路直播和投影片簡報可在我們網站的活動和簡報部分找到。今天我們有幾位管理團隊成員與我們在一起，包括董事長兼首席執行官傑夫·馬丁 (Jeff Martin)； Karen Sedgwick，執行副總裁兼首席財務官； Sempra Infrastructure 執行副總裁兼首席執行官賈斯汀·伯德 (Justin Bird)；艾倫·奈 (Allen Nye)，Oncor Caroline； Oncor 首席財務首席執行官 Don Clevenger； Wall)，資深副總裁、財務主管兼首席會計官；以及我們高階管理團隊的其他成員。

Before starting, I'd like to remind everyone that we'll be discussing forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ materially from those projected in any forward-looking statements we make today. The factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially are discussed in the company's most recent 10-K and 10-Q filed with the SEC. Earnings per common share amounts in our presentation are shown on a diluted basis, and we'll be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures.

在開始之前，我想提醒大家，我們將討論 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》所定義的前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與我們今天所做的任何前瞻性陳述中預測的結果有重大差異。本公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的最新 10-K 和 10-Q 報告中討論了可能導致我們的實際結果出現重大差異的因素。我們報告中的每股普通股收益是按稀釋後的基礎顯示的，我們將討論某些非公認會計準則財務指標。

Please refer to the presentation slides that accompany this call for a reconciliation to GAAP measures. We also encourage you to review our 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2024. I'd also like to mention that forward-looking statements contained in this presentation speak only of today, November 6, 2024, and it's important to note that the company does not assume any obligation to update or revise any of these forward-looking statements in the future.

請參閱此呼籲中附帶的簡報幻燈片，以了解與 GAAP 指標的協調情況。我們也鼓勵您查看截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日的季度 10-Q。我還想提一下，本簡報中包含的前瞻性陳述僅代表今天，即 2024 年 11 月 6 日，值得注意的是，本公司不承擔將來更新或修改任何這些前瞻性陳述的義務。

With that, please turn to slide 5, and let me hand the call over to Jeff.

說完這些，請翻到投影片 5，讓我把電話交給傑夫。

Thank you, Glen and thank you all for joining us today. This year, as we report our Q4 and full year financial results, we've organized our materials to lay out a clear roadmap for our company to deliver a decisive decade of growth. In part, that's why we took the time over the last several months to reach out to investors and the research community to get new ideas and suggestions on how to make today's call as informative as possible. With your input, we've added a lot more content to today's presentation and adjusted our list of presenters so you get to hear directly from a broader group of executives.

謝謝你，格倫，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。今年，在報告第四季度和全年財務表現時，我們整理了相關資料，為公司實現未來十年的決定性成長制定了清晰的路線圖。在某種程度上，這就是為什麼我們在過去幾個月花時間聯繫投資者和研究界，以獲得新的想法和建議，以使今天的電話會議盡可能具有資訊量。根據您的意見，我們在今天的演示中添加了更多內容，並調整了演示者名單，以便您可以直接聽取更多高階主管的意見。

In terms of our agenda, I'll start by reviewing our accomplishments in 2024 and provide an overview of our corporate strategy. Then we'll move to the leaders of our three business segments where each will discuss recent developments and operational initiatives in their businesses as well as their respective capital plans.

就我們的議程而言，我將首先回顧我們在 2024 年的成就，並概述我們的公司策略。然後，我們將與三個業務部門的領導人討論各自業務的最新發展和營運舉措以及各自的資本計劃。

Afterwards, Karen will follow the presentation on our Q4 and full year financial results and the details surrounding our new five-year capital plan. And then at the end, I'll rejoin you to make some closing remarks.

隨後，Karen 將介紹我們的第四季和全年財務業績以及新的五年資本計畫的細節。最後，我將再次與大家一起做一些結束語。

Turning to our 2024 financial results, we delivered adjusted EPS of $4.65 which is just below the midpoint of our guidance range. Later in today's call, Karen will walk through the key drivers behind those results.

談到我們的 2024 年財務業績，我們實現的調整後每股收益為 4.65 美元，略低於我們的指導範圍的中點。在今天稍後的電話會議中，凱倫將詳細介紹這些結果背後的關鍵驅動因素。

Turning to 2025 guidance, we've adjusted our financial forecast to account for a series of changes. These include the final decision in our California rate cases, as well as updated assumptions relating to interest rates, commodity prices, and O&M cost.

展望 2025 年指引，我們調整了財務預測以適應一系列變化。其中包括我們對加州利率案件的最終決定，以及與利率、商品價格和營運與維護成本相關的最新假設。

Another key assumption in our 2025 guidance has to do with Oncor filing its next base rate review. As you know Texas is enjoying strong economic and population growth. Some estimates project Texas to have the largest population in the United States by 2045. And to further that point from July 2023 to July 2024, Texas added over 0.5 million new residents, the most of any state in the nation.

我們 2025 年指引中的另一個關鍵假設與 Oncor 提交下一次基準利率審查有關。眾所周知，德州正經歷著強勁的經濟和人口成長。一些估計顯示，到 2045 年，德州將成為美國人口最多的州。從 2023 年 7 月到 2024 年 7 月，德州新增居民超過 50 萬，是全國最多的州。

New business continues to move to the state as well, and as the economy expands to the end of the decade, electricity demand is expected to nearly double. With this backdrop, there's a significant need for new infrastructure which creates opportunity for Oncor to increase its capital investments in the State. That's why Oncor is preparing to file a comprehensive base rate review later this year rather than waiting until 2027.

新企業也不斷遷入該州，隨著本世紀末經濟的擴張，電力需求預計將增加近一倍。在這種背景下，對新基礎設施的需求很大，這為 Oncor 增加在該州的資本投資創造了機會。這就是為什麼 Oncor 準備在今年稍後提交一份全面的基準利率審查，而不是等到 2027 年。

Allen will go into more detail, but if the team elects to file a base rate review, which we have assumed in our plan, we believe this will strengthen the company's financial position. As it looks to make critical investments necessary to support expected growth in energy demand.

艾倫將會更詳細地說明，但如果團隊選擇提交基準利率審查（我們在計劃中已經假設了這一點），我們相信這將加強公司的財務狀況。因為它希望進行必要的關鍵投資來支持預期的能源需求成長。

Taking all these factors into account, we're revising our full year 2025 EPS guidance range to $4.30 to $4.70. Our revised 2025 guidance falls below the prior expectations set for our company. That said, I'm confident that we're making the right decisions for the business as 2025 will form a new foundation for our future growth.

考慮到所有這些因素，我們將 2025 年全年每股收益預期範圍修改為 4.30 美元至 4.70 美元。我們修訂後的 2025 年指引低於本公司先前設定的預期。話雖如此，我相信我們為業務做出了正確的決策，因為 2025 年將為我們未來的發展奠定新的基礎。

In addition, we're announcing our full year 2026 EPS guidance range of $4.80 to $5.30 which represents roughly a 12% growth rate from the midpoint of 2025 guidance. This is important because we expect to pull through strong growth from 2026 in the future years.

此外，我們宣布 2026 年全年每股收益預期範圍為 4.80 美元至 5.30 美元，比 2025 年預期中點的成長率約為 12%。這很重要，因為我們預計未來幾年將從 2026 年開始實現強勁成長。

In addition to the reference year over year growth, we're seeing remarkable growth in our expected earnings from Sempra Texas, which supports raising our projected long-term EPS growth rate to 7% to 9%. Going forward, we'll update our estimated long-term growth rate on our year-end calls in February at the same time that we announce our updated capital plans.

除了參考同比增長之外，我們還看到 Sempra Texas 的預期收益顯著增長，這支持我們將預計的長期每股收益增長率提高到 7% 至 9%。展望未來，我們將在二月的年終電話會議上更新預計的長期成長率，同時宣布更新後的資本計畫。

Finally, in keeping with our commitment to provide investors with a competitive total return, we're also pleased to announce that Sempra's Board of Directors approved increase in the company's annualized dividend for the 15th consecutive year to $2.58 per share. Please turn to the next slide where I'll walk through our recent accomplishments.

最後，為了履行我們為投資者提供有競爭力的總回報的承諾，我們還很高興地宣布，Sempra 董事會批准連續第 15 年將公司年度股息提高至每股 2.58 美元。請翻到下一張投影片，我將介紹我們最近的成就。

In 2024 we made important progress on our five year capital plan by deploying nearly $10 billion of capital across our three business lines while also delivering solid financial results with 2024 adjusted earnings of roughly $3 billion. In terms of other accomplishments, we ended the year with utility rate base of $56 billion. It's also important to note that we're announcing a new record capital plan of $56 billion for 2025 to 2029, which represents a 16% increase over the prior plan.

2024 年，我們在五年資本計畫上取得了重要進展，在三大業務線上部署了近 100 億美元的資本，同時實現了穩健的財務業績，2024 年調整後收益約為 30 億美元。就其他成就而言，我們今年的公用事業費率基數達到了 560 億美元。值得注意的是，我們宣布了 2025 年至 2029 年創紀錄的 560 億美元資本計劃，比之前的計劃增加了 16%。

With over half of our new capital driven by opportunities at Oncor, where Allen and his team are seeing remarkable customer growth and taken together with California, 90% of the new capital plan is dedicated to our core strategy of investing in regulated utilities with constructive regulation. In California, SDG&E and SoCalGas received a final decision on their 2024 general rate cases, which support critical new investments in safety, reliability, and affordable customer service.

我們的新資本有一半以上是由 Oncor 的機會推動的，艾倫和他的團隊在那裡看到了顯著的客戶成長，加上加州，90% 的新資本計畫專用於我們的核心策略，即投資於具有建設性監管的受監管公用事業。在加州，SDG&E 和 SoCalGas 就其 2024 年一般費率案件做出了最終裁決，該裁決支持在安全性、可靠性和可負擔的客戶服務方面進行關鍵的新投資。

Meanwhile, in Texas, you'll recall that the PUCT approved Oncor's nearly $3 billion system resiliency plan highlighting the constructive nature of that jurisdiction and Oncor's ability to work collaboratively with key stakeholders to advance good public policy.

同時，在德克薩斯州，您會記得，PUCT 批准了 Oncor 近 30 億美元的系統彈性計劃，突顯了該管轄區的建設性性質以及 Oncor 與主要利益相關者合作推進良好公共政策的能力。

Oncor has already begun making investments in accordance with the SRP, and there are a significant number of near-term growth opportunities that Allen will be discussing momentarily. In addition, Allen will outline more clearly what investments fall within his new $36 billion capital plan, as well as providing very important visibility to other incremental investments that are expected to be added to his 2025 to 2029 plan. And new investments that are estimated for the 2030 to 2034 time frame.

Oncor 已經開始根據 SRP 進行投資，艾倫將立即討論大量近期成長機會。此外，艾倫將更清楚地概述哪些投資屬於其新的 360 億美元資本計劃，並為預計將添加到其 2025 年至 2029 年計劃中的其他增量投資提供非常重要的透明度。以及預計 2030 年至 2034 年期間的新投資。

And finally, at Sempra Infrastructure 2024 was an important year in terms of execution as we continue to advance construction across a series of large scale infrastructure projects, including most notably ECA LNG Phase 1 and Port Arthur LNG Phase 1.

最後，對於 Sempra Infrastructure 來說，2024 年是執行方面重要的一年，因為我們將繼續推進一系列大型基礎設施項目的建設，其中最著名的是 ECA LNG 第一階段和 Port Arthur LNG 第一階段。

Please turn to the next slide. Couple takeaways here. Utility capital investments have grown steadily at approximately 4% over the last decade. However, with economic expansion coming out of COVID, reshoring of industry, and record levels of investment in cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and data centers, we're seeing a notable uptick in energy demand. That's why utilities all across the country are quickly ramping up investment to build new energy infrastructure that supports growing energy demand. With over $200 billion of anticipated sector investment in 2025 alone, we certainly believe we're in the early innings of a new super cycle for the sector.

請翻到下一張投影片。這裡有一些外賣。過去十年，公用事業資本投資穩定成長約 4%。然而，隨著新冠疫情后經濟擴張、產業回流以及雲端運算、人工智慧和資料中心投資達到創紀錄水平，我們看到能源需求顯著上升。這就是為什麼全國各地的公用事業公司都在迅速加大投資，建立新的能源基礎設施，以滿足日益增長的能源需求。光是 2025 年，預計該產業的投資就將超過 2,000 億美元，我們確信我們正處於該產業新一輪超級週期的初期。

On a relative basis, our 16% year-over-year increase in our five year capital plan compares favorably to the trend shown here. In part, that's why we continue to believe Sempra is well positioned in the right markets with the right corporate strategy to create a lot of value in the coming years.

相對而言，我們的五年資本計畫年增 16%，與這裡顯示的趨勢相比是有利的。在某種程度上，這就是為什麼我們仍然相信 Sempra 在正確的市場中佔據有利地位，並擁有正確的企業策略，能夠在未來幾年創造巨大的價值。

Please turn to the next slide. Here, Sempra's core strategy centers on making discipline investments in good businesses where we can earn quality returns while building scale advantages in large economic markets with favorable regulation.

請翻到下一張投影片。在這裡，Sempra 的核心策略集中在對優質企業進行紀律性投資，我們可以在這些企業中獲得優質回報，同時在具有良好監管的大型經濟市場中建立規模優勢。

Please turn to the next slide. At Sempra, we have narrowed our participation in the energy value chain with the goal of reducing the impact of commodity, environmental, and credit risk. By concentrating on transmission and distribution investment, it also improves our line of sight to future growth and helps us produce high quality recurring cash flows from regulated utilities while also investing long-term contracted assets with investment grade counterparties in our infrastructure platform.

請翻到下一張投影片。在 Sempra，我們縮小了在能源價值鏈中的參與度，目的是減少商品、環境和信用風險的影響。透過專注於輸配電投資，它還改善了我們對未來成長的視線，並幫助我們從受監管的公用事業中產生高品質的經常性現金流，同時還在我們的基礎設施平台上與投資級交易對手投資長期合約資產。

Please turn to the next slide. To be clear, our corporate strategy is designed to build significant scale into our business for the benefit of customers and shareholders. To do that, we're launching a new record $56 billion capital plan that targets compound annual rate-based growth of 10%.

請翻到下一張投影片。明確地說，我們的公司策略旨在擴大我們的業務規模，以造福客戶和股東。為了實現這一目標，我們推出了一項創紀錄的 560 億美元資本計劃，目標是實現 10% 的年複合成長率。

Note too that our expectations of future growth are expanding, particularly in the state of Texas. That's why we're raising our long-term EPS growth estimates to 7% to 9%.

還要注意的是，我們對未來成長的預期正在擴大，特別是在德州。這就是我們將長期每股盈餘成長預期上調至 7% 至 9% 的原因。

Please turn to the next slide where Allen will walk you through a business update at Oncor.

請翻到下一張投影片，Allen 將向您介紹 Oncor 的業務更新。

Thank you, Jeff. We had a successful year at Oncor headlined by several key accomplishments. We deployed approximately $4.7 billion, a new record, and grew our rate base by approximately 15%. We continue to believe in the Texas miracle and do not see it slowing down anytime soon. As Jeff mentioned, we are contemplating filing a comprehensive base rate review with the PUCT this year. As you may recall, our last base rate review was approved in 2023 based on a 2021 historic test year.

謝謝你，傑夫。我們在 Oncor 度過了成功的一年，並取得了許多重要成就。我們部署了約 47 億美元，創下了新紀錄，並將利率基數提高了約 15%。我們繼續相信德克薩斯奇蹟，並認為它不會很快放緩。正如 Jeff 所提到的，我們正在考慮今年向 PUCT 提交一份全面的基準利率審查。您可能還記得，我們​​上一次基準費率審查是根據 2021 年的歷史測試年份於 2023 年批准的。

Market conditions have certainly changed with higher interest rates and insurance premiums and inflationary pressure to name a few. Moving to our operational performance, in 2024, Oncor built, rebuilt, or upgraded 4,300 miles of T&D lines, increased our premise count by approximately 77,000, set company records for new and active transmission interconnection requests, and witnessed 4% growth in electricity volumes delivered. Oncor was also recognized by EEI with the Emergency Response Award for our May 2024 storm response, the second worst storm in Oncor's history, further demonstrating our commitment to restoring power after extreme weather events as soon as safely possible.

市場狀況確實發生了變化，例如利率上升、保險費上漲以及通膨壓力加大等。談到我們的營運業績，2024 年，Oncor 建造、重建或升級了 4,300 英里的輸配電線路，增加了約 77,000 個場所數量，創下了新的和活躍的輸電互連請求的公司記錄，並且交付的電力量增長了 4%。Oncor 也因對 2024 年 5 月風暴的響應而獲得了 EEI 頒發的緊急響應獎，這是 Oncor 歷史上第二嚴重的風暴，進一步證明了我們致力於在極端天氣事件後儘快安全恢復電力的承諾。

To come full circle, the main takeaway is that Oncor had an excellent year. And I'll speak next about the long term growth we are seeing.

總而言之，主要的收穫是 Oncor 度過了出色的一年。接下來我將談談我們所看到的長期成長。

Please turn to the next slide. As we've highlighted throughout the year, new points of interconnection requests grew 27% in 2024. This is an important metric because it serves as a strong leading indicator of customers looking to connect to Oncor's system and simultaneously helps replenish the existing queue of active requests, both of which represent future investment opportunities. The increase in interconnection interest continues to emerge primarily from large C&I customers which span multiple diverse industries located across our service territory. As of December 31, 2024, the total amount of commercial and industrial load seeking transmission interconnection equaled 137 gigawatts, an approximately 250% increase from 2023.

請翻到下一張投影片。正如我們全年所強調的那樣，2024 年新的互連請求點增加了 27%。這是一個重要的指標，因為它可以作為希望連接到 Oncor 系統的客戶的強有力的領先指標，同時有助於補充現有的活躍請求隊列，這兩者都代表著未來的投資機會。互連互通興趣的持續成長主要來自於大型 C&I 客戶，這些客戶遍布我們服務區域內的多個不同行業。截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日，尋求輸電互聯的商業和工業負載總量為 137 吉瓦，比 2023 年增長約 250%。

I'd also like to note that Oncor is already in possession of over $2 billion of collateral held undersigned agreements split approximately even between generation and large C&I customers, about a 10X increase since 2018. This collateral protects ratepayers and us from the risk of costs being incurred for a project that is subsequently abandoned. Executed agreements are one of the ways we evaluate the probability of load increases into our capital planning process and this figure indicates these are serious customers with high intentions of developing their projects. Additionally, we provide ERCOT with a high confidence projection for C&I loads seeking interconnection to our transmission system. Last year we provided a projection through 2030 of 25 gigawatts. This year, based on the number of customers who have taken concrete steps towards an interconnection agreement, we have increased our high confidence projection to 29 gigawatts through 2031. That amount, combined with the customers who have already signed interconnection agreements could potentially increase our 2031 peak load by approximately 36 gigawatts from C&I transmission customers alone. To put that into context, today's peak load for our whole system is 31 gigawatts. Please turn to the next slide.

我還想指出，Oncor 已經擁有超過 20 億美元的抵押品，這些抵押品根據簽署的協議在發電客戶和大型 C&I 客戶之間大致均等分配，自 2018 年以來增長了約 10 倍。此抵押品可保護納稅人和我們免受因專案隨後被放棄而產生的成本風險。已執行的協議是我們評估資本規劃過程中負荷增加可能性的方式之一，這個數字表明這些都是有強烈意願開發專案的認真客戶。此外，我們也為 ERCOT 提供了尋求與我們的輸電系統互連的 C&I 負載的高置信度預測。去年，我們預測到 2030 年發電量將達到 25 千兆瓦。今年，根據已採取具體措施達成互連協議的客戶數量，我們將高信心預測提高到 2031 年的 29 千兆瓦。這筆金額，加上已經簽署互連協議的客戶，僅來自 C&I 傳輸客戶的尖峰負載就有可能增加約 36 千兆瓦。具體來說，今天我們整個系統的峰值負載為 31 千兆瓦。請翻到下一張投影片。

Today, we're announcing another record five year capital plan totaling $36 billion, an increase of 50% over the five year plan we announced last February. Oncor's investments over 2025 through 2029 are expected to support diverse growth across our service territory as the region continues to exhibit strong annual premise growth in the 2% range, receive a growing number of interconnection requests from large C&I customers while remaining a highly desired destination for both business and residential customers to the state.

今天，我們宣布了另一項創紀錄的五年資本計劃，總額達 360 億美元，比去年 2 月宣布的五年計劃增加了 50%。Oncor 在 2025 年至 2029 年期間的投資預計將支持我們服務區域的多元化增長，因為該地區繼續呈現 2% 左右的強勁年度增長率，收到來自大型 C&I 客戶的越來越多的互連請求，同時仍然是該州商業和住宅客戶最嚮往的目的地。

Oncor's territory is vast. Our distribution service territory is over 54,000 square miles, roughly the size of the whole state of New York, and our growth is not concentrated in any one area but spread out across the DFW Metroplex, West Texas, and along the I-35 corridor. We're continuing to see strong growth in residential premises that exceeds the historical national average as well as significant new growth in the large C&I space.

Oncor 的領土十分遼闊。我們的配送服務區域超過 54,000 平方英里，大約相當於整個紐約州的面積，而且我們的成長並不集中在任何一個地區，而是遍布 DFW 大都會區、西德州和 I-35 走廊沿線。我們繼續看到住宅物業的強勁增長，超過了歷史全國平均水平，同時大型商業和工業領域也出現了顯著的新增長。

Examining the components of our new $36 billion capital plan, the increases arise from the following items: nearly $3 billion for the SRP, $2 billion for the brownfield local common projects for the Permian Basin Reliability Plan; $1 billion for transmission projects for the Delaware Basin Load integration plan; and West Texas 345-kV infrastructure plan. $2 billion for interconnection of generation and large C&I customers with executed agreements; and $4 billion for distribution upgrades and other capital needs.

審查我們新的 360 億美元資本計劃的組成部分，增加的資金來自以下項目：近 30 億美元用於 SRP，20 億美元用於二疊紀盆地可靠性計劃的棕地當地共同項目； 10億美元用於特拉華盆地負荷整合計劃的輸電項目；以及西德克薩斯州 345 千伏基礎設施計劃。 20 億美元用於已簽訂協議的發電客戶和大型 C&I 客戶的互聯互通；以及 40 億美元用於分銷升級和其他資本需求。

We're excited by the prospect that more than 60% of our capital plan presented today is allocated towards transmission projects that will support the growing energy needs of the state of Texas, as these projects tend to be substantial with cost and benefits shared with all ratepayers. Our distribution investments which we recover through the DCRF will also continue at a robust pace and comprise another 27% of the capital plan demonstrating the breadth and diversity of growth throughout our service territory.

我們很高興看到，我們今天提出的資本計劃中有 60% 以上將用於輸電項目，以滿足德克薩斯州日益增長的能源需求，因為這些項目規模往往很大，所有納稅人可以分擔成本和收益。我們透過 DCRF 收回的分銷投資也將繼續保持強勁成長，並佔資本計畫的另外 27%，展現了我們整個服務領域成長的廣度和多樣性。

The SRP, which we've highlighted previously, also accounts for $3 billion and that capital is recovered more favorably than our other investments. These investments are critical because they support a safer, smarter, more resilient electric grid to help enable continued development across the state of Texas.

我們之前強調的 SRP 也達到 30 億美元，而且這筆資金的回收效果比我們的其他投資更為有利。這些投資至關重要，因為它們支持更安全、更聰明、更具彈性的電網，以幫助整個德州持續發展。

Notably, Oncor's $36 billion CapEx plan only includes expected spend for major transmission projects for which we have obtained all regulatory approvals. For example, in the Permian Basin Reliability Plan, approximately $2 billion has been included for brownfield projects that require no further approvals. Additionally, with regard to customers seeking interconnection at the transmission level like data centers, our plan only includes those projects for which customers have executed an agreement with us.

值得注意的是，Oncor 的 360 億美元資本支出計畫僅包括我們已獲得所有監管部門批准的大型輸電項目的預期支出。例如，二疊紀盆地可靠性計畫中已包含約 20 億美元用於無需進一步批准的棕地計畫。此外，對於尋求資料中心等傳輸層互連的客戶，我們的計劃僅包括客戶已與我們簽訂協議的項目。

Please turn to the next slide. As a result, Oncor has clear line of sight to meaningful projects that could amount to an additional $12 billion over the course of 2025 to 2029 that are outside of our base plan. These projects include potential updates to our SRP in 2028 and 2029, local projects of the Permian Basin Reliability Plan requiring regulatory approvals, projects in the import path of the Permian Basin Reliability Plan, additional transmission POIs such as data centers that have not yet signed agreements with us, and projects arising from ERCOT's 765-kV strategic Transmission Expansion Plan or STEP, among other things.

請翻到下一張投影片。因此，Oncor 清楚地看到了有意義的項目，這些項目在 2025 年至 2029 年期間可能會額外增加 120 億美元，而這些項目超出了我們的基本計劃。這些項目包括我們 2028 年和 2029 年的 SRP 潛在更新、需要監管部門批准的二疊紀盆地可靠性計劃的本地項目、二疊紀盆地可靠性計劃進口路徑中的項目、其他傳輸 POI（例如尚未與我們簽署協議的數據中心）以及 ERCOT 的 765 kV 戰略傳輸計劃或 STEP 產生的擴展計劃等等。

Regarding the Permian Basin Reliability Plan, ERCOT and the PUCT are still evaluating the optimal voltage level for the import pathways as part of the import path phase. We anticipate further determination to be made in the second quarter of this year that will provide clarity on the need and timing of additional transmission investment. With targeted in-service dates of 2030 and beyond, we anticipate these potential investments to occur in the back end of our current five year plan and extending into the next decade.

關於二疊紀盆地可靠性計劃，ERCOT 和 PUCT 仍在評估作為進口路徑階段的一部分的進口路徑的最佳電壓水平。我們預計今年第二季將做出進一步的決定，以明確額外輸電投資的必要性和時機。由於目標投入使用日期為 2030 年及以後，我們預計這些潛在投資將在目前五年計畫的後期發生，並延續到下一個十年。

We are excited to have begun needed investments to support grid resiliency, and we understand this is not a one-off event. As such, we anticipate filing an update to our current SRP in 2027 with additional measures to continue the important investments around grid hardening, situational awareness, and cyber and physical security of our system.

我們很高興已經開始進行支持電網彈性所需的投資，我們知道這不是一次性事件。因此，我們預計將在 2027 年對目前的 SRP 進行更新，並採取額外措施繼續對電網強化、態勢感知以及系統的網路和實體安全進行重要投資。

ERCOT has laid out a vision for the development of a modern statewide EHV superhighway. In ERCOT's 765-kV STEP released last month, ERCOT indicated that the costs between an EHV solution and a traditional 345-kV solution are likely to be very similar, but the EHV solution would provide a number of superior benefits. We expect more guidance from the PUCT in the first half of this year. Under either solution, Oncor expects to build a significant amount of the needed transmission.

ERCOT 已經制定了建造現代化全州超高壓高速公路的願景。在上個月發布的 ERCOT 765 kV STEP 中，ERCOT 表示 EHV 解決方案和傳統 345 kV 解決方案之間的成本可能非常相似，但 EHV 解決方案將提供許多卓越的優勢。我們預計 PUCT 在今年上半年將提供更多指引。無論採用哪種解決方案，Oncor 都希望建造大量所需的輸電線路。

Many of these projects I am discussing today continue past the current five year plan. When we look farther out, we believe our growth continues well into the next decade. If current growth trends continue, we estimate investment in our system requiring $55 billion to $75 billion from 2030 to 2034. In other words, the Texas miracle doesn't appear to be stopping anytime soon.

我今天討論的許多項目都延續了目前的五年計畫。當我們放眼長遠時，我們相信我們的成長將持續到下一個十年。如果目前的成長趨勢持續下去，我們估計從 2030 年到 2034 年，我們系統的投資需要 550 億美元到 750 億美元。換句話說，德州奇蹟似乎不會很快停止。

As we execute on our current plan and prepare for potentially higher levels of capital spending, I'll speak to how we prepared to support this growth. Please turn to the next slide. For years now, Oncor has been taking deliberate steps to help secure our future growth potential. Over the past five years, we've significantly expanded our supplier base and inventory stock to help ensure materials are available when and where they are needed.

當我們執行當前計劃並為可能更高水準的資本支出做準備時，我將談談我們如何準備好支持這一成長。請翻到下一張投影片。多年來，Oncor 一直在採取深思熟慮的措施來幫助確保我們未來的成長潛力。在過去五年中，我們大幅擴展了供應商基礎和庫存，以確保在需要的時間和地點能夠獲得材料。

We've also increased our talent pool to bring new knowledge, skill sets, and abilities to our workforce while deploying modern technologies and exercising prudence and increasing our headcount so that we can efficiently grow our business. As we enhance our resources, we are also achieving improved safety metrics, which is a testament to our continued focus on operational excellence.

我們還擴大了人才庫，為我們的員工帶來了新的知識、技能和能力，同時部署了現代技術，採取了謹慎的態度並增加了員工人數，以便我們能夠有效地發展業務。隨著我們資源的增強，我們的安全指標也不斷提高，證明了我們持續專注於卓越營運。

Please turn to the next slide and I'll hand the call over to Karen.

請翻到下一張投影片，我會把電話交給凱倫。

Thank you, Allen. I'll start by providing an update on Sempra California's 2024 accomplishments and five-year capital plan.

謝謝你，艾倫。我將首先介紹 Sempra California 2024 年的成就和五年資本計劃的最新情況。

Then, since we've received a lot of outreach from the investment community on how the state limits investor exposure to wildfire risk, I want to reserve time to provide an update on that as well.

然後，由於我們收到了很多來自投資界的關於該州如何限制投資者面臨野火風險的諮詢，我想預留一些時間來提供這方面的最新資訊。

Started with 2024 accomplishments, we saw a number of material developments in our California utilities. First and foremost, we received a final decision in our general rate cases. With the final decision, we're now able to focus our efforts on executing the approved plan and continuing to provide customers with safe and reliable energy.

從 2024 年的成就開始，我們看到加州公用事業取得了許多實質進展。首先，我們對一般費率案件做出了最終判決。有了最終決定，我們現在可以集中精力執行批准的計劃並繼續為客戶提供安全可靠的能源。

And speaking of safety, SDG&E became California's first utility to be awarded with a prestigious Cal/OSHA VPP safety certification. This designation is the highest safety recognition offered by the nation's largest state-run division of occupational safety and health, and the award is reserved for organizations that demonstrate exemplary safety practices, employee engagement, and injury prevention measures that exceed standard regulatory requirements. It is also noteworthy to mention that SDG&E was also once again recognized as the best in the West for electric customer reliability for the 19th consecutive year, another accomplishment we're quite proud of.

說到安全，SDG&E 成為加州第一家獲得著名的 Cal/OSHA VPP 安全認證的公用事業公司。該頭銜是美國最大的州立職業安全與健康部門授予的最高安全認可，該獎項專門授予那些表現出模範安全實踐、員工參與度和傷害預防措施超出標準監管要求的組織。另外值得一提的是，聖地牙哥瓦斯電力公司 (SDG&E) 連續第 19 年被評為西部電力客戶可靠性最佳公司，這也是我們引以為傲的另一項成就。

Operationally, we continue to see growing energy demand, and recently, the California Energy Commission issued a report projecting 2.8% annual growth in statewide electricity consumption from 2023 to 2030, which should have favorable impacts to customer affordability by putting downward pressure on rates.

從營運角度來看，我們持續看到能源需求不斷增長，最近，加州能源委員會發布了一份報告，預測2023年至2030年全州電力消耗年增長率為2.8%，這將對消費者的負擔能力產生有利影響，因為這會對電價造成下行壓力。

In October, SDG&E submitted its TO6 filing with FERC, including a 50 basis points California ISO adder. In December, FERC issued an order finding that SDG&E is not eligible for the ISO adder. SDG&E believes there is a reasonable basis to appeal this decision and has already requested a rehearing.

10 月份，SDG&E 向 FERC 提交了 TO6 文件，其中包括 50 個基點的加州 ISO 加法器。12 月，FERC 發布命令，認定 SDG&E 不符合 ISO 附加條件。SDG&E 認為有合理的理由對該決定提出上訴，並已要求重新審理。

At SoCalGas, the CPUC issued a final decision authorizing the Aliso Canyon Natural gas storage facility to operate at 68.6 billion cubic feet, or 80% of the site's capacity, representing approximately 11% of the state's overall storage capacity.

在南加州天然氣公司，加州公用事業委員會 (CPUC) 發布了最終決定，授權阿里索峽谷天然氣儲存設施以 686 億立方英尺的容量運行，即該設施容量的 80%，約佔該州總儲存容量的 11%。

Ongoing operations will be subject to future CPUC review, but we believe this action confirms the valuable role natural gas continues to play in contributing to a stable and affordable California energy grid. Please turn to the next slide.

正在進行的營運將接受未來加州公共事業委員會 (CPUC) 的審查，但我們相信，這項行動證實了天然氣在建立穩定且經濟實惠的加州能源網方面繼續發揮的寶貴作用。請翻到下一張投影片。

Sempra California's capital plan totals over $22 billion through 2029. Major areas of investment include our wildfire mitigation, energy storage, and smart meter replacement initiatives. We're also building new transmission lines under FERC's authority, investing in the modernization of the Moreno and Honor Rancho compressor stations, and continuing to bolster safety through our gas pipeline safety and integrity management programs.

到 2029 年，Sempra California 的資本計畫總額將超過 220 億美元。主要投資領域包括野火緩解、能源儲存和智慧電錶更換計劃。我們也在聯邦能源管理委員會的授權下建造新的輸電線路，投資對莫雷諾和榮譽牧場壓縮機站進行現代化改造，並繼續透過我們的天然氣管道安全和完整性管理計畫加強安全性。

As we look into the next decade, we see further opportunities to improve how we deliver our services through innovation and grid modernization efforts focused on safety, reliability, and affordable customer service. Moreover, additional investments will be needed to support growing energy demand and economic development throughout the state. Please turn to the next slide.

展望未來十年，我們將看到更多機會，透過專注於安全性、可靠性和經濟實惠的客戶服務的創新和電網現代化努力來改善我們提供服務的方式。此外，還需要額外的投資來支持全州不斷增長的能源需求和經濟發展。請翻到下一張投影片。

Operationally, Sempra California has a track record of effectively mitigating risk and making innovative investments which further our market position as a leader in delivering safe and reliable energy. SDG&E recently scored as the most mature wildfire mitigation program across all international utilities. SDG&E’s investments in wildfire mitigation have been instrumental in hardening our system based on advanced risk modeling that identified the most weather sensitive areas. Moreover, these advanced technologies also track wildfire risk throughout the year.

在營運方面，Sempra California 在有效降低風險和進行創新投資方面有著良好的記錄，這進一步鞏固了我們在提供安全可靠能源方面的市場領先地位。SDG&E 最近被評為所有國際公用事業公司中最成熟的野火緩解計劃。SDG&E 在野火緩解方面的投資對於強化我們的系統發揮了重要作用，該系統基於先進的風險模型，可識別對天氣最敏感的區域。此外，這些先進技術還可以全年追蹤野火風險。

With an established leadership position in wildfire mitigation and data science, we commonly field questions about programs here in the state, and I thought it'd be helpful to share our company's perspective. In 2019, the state established the Wildfire Fund under AB 1054 to support the financial stability of investor owned utilities.

憑藉在野火緩解和數據科學領域的領導地位，我們經常回答有關該州項目的問題，我認為分享我們公司的觀點會有所幫助。2019 年，該州根據 AB 1054 設立了野火基金，以支持投資者擁有的公用事業的財務穩定。

When the fund was formed, SDG&E initially contributed roughly $320 million. Since then, SDG&E has contributed just under $13 million annually. As of today, SDG&E's total contributions represent roughly 2% of the $21 billion fund.

該基金成立時，SDG&E 最初出資約 3.2 億美元。自那時起，SDG&E 每年捐款近 1,300 萬美元。截至今天，SDG&E 的總捐款約佔 210 億美元基金的 2%。

SDG&E's lower level of contributions reflect its lower risk profile due to three considerations: the relatively small size of SDG&E service territory, the desert-like topography that predominates this part of Southern California, and the robust level of prior investments SDG&E has made to materially mitigate wildfire risk.

SDG&E 較低的貢獻水準反映了其較低的風險狀況，這主要出於三個考慮：SDG&E 服務區域相對較小、南加州這部分地區以沙漠地形為主、以及 SDG&E 先前為切實降低野火風險而進行的大量投資。

Also, it's important to note that SDG&E is not standing still. The company continues to strengthen its capabilities with new investments and wildfire mitigation programs, as well as newly developed technology and data science that support proactively monitoring and better protection for local communities.

此外，值得注意的是，SDG&E 並沒有停滯不前。該公司繼續透過新的投資和野火緩解計劃以及新開發的技術和數據科學來增強其能力，以支持主動監測並更好地保護當地社區。

This played out during the recent weather events where SDG&E encountered substantially similar – and in some cases worse – red flag conditions than what was experienced in the Los Angeles region. SDG&E successfully managed its system safely, and the company came through the event safely. Remember too that SDG&E hasn't had a utility caused wildfire of any significance for over 17 years.

這在最近的天氣事件中得到了體現，聖地牙哥天然氣電力公司 (SDG&E) 遇到的危險訊號基本上與洛杉磯地區的情況相似，在某些情況下甚至更糟。SDG&E 成功安全地管理了其係統，公司安全度過了這起事故。還要記住的是，聖地牙哥天然氣電力公司 (SDG&E) 17 年來從未發生過由公用事業引起的嚴重野火。

Please turn to the next slide, where Justin will provide an update on Sempra infrastructure.

請翻到下一張投影片，賈斯汀將提供有關 Sempra 基礎設施的最新資訊。

Thanks, Karen. Geopolitical and market events continue to highlight and strengthen the value proposition of our Sempra infrastructure platform, and we're making the most of the opportunity.

謝謝，凱倫。地緣政治和市場事件繼續凸顯和加強我們的 Sempra 基礎設施平台的價值主張，我們正在充分利用這一機會。

We're making substantial progress on our dual-basin LNG strategy through the construction of ECA LNG Phase 1, Port Arthur LNG Phase 1, and the active development of Port Arthur LNG Phase 2.

我們透過建造出口控制區液化天然氣第一期項目、亞瑟港液化天然氣第一期項目以及積極開發亞瑟港液化天然氣二期項目，在雙盆地液化天然氣戰略方面取得了實質進展。

And when ECA and Port Arthur LNG Phase 1 are up and running, we'll have the ability to deliver natural gas from the Permian and Haynesville basins into our terminals and dispatch LNG into both the Pacific and Atlantic energy markets. And as the CEO, I can tell you this is an exciting time for Sempra infrastructure. First, we delivered financial results at the high end of our range in 2024 and continued to generate strong distributable cash flow to our owners.

當 ECA 和亞瑟港液化天然氣第一階段工程投入營運後，我們將能夠將二疊紀盆地和海恩斯維爾盆地的天然氣輸送到我們的終端，並將液化天然氣輸送到太平洋和大西洋能源市場。作為首席執行官，我可以告訴你，對於 Sempra 基礎設施來說，這是一個令人興奮的時刻。首先，我們在 2024 年實現了預期高端的財務業績，並繼續為我們的所有者創造強勁的可分配現金流。

Second, construction on ECA LNG Phase 1 continues to progress, and we expect to be on time and on budget in the spring of 2026. We also reached COD on our GRO pipeline supporting natural gas supply into ECA LNG. Third, construction on Port Arthur LNG Phase 1 with Bechtel as our EPC contractor and our associated pipeline remain on time and on budget.

其次，ECA LNG 第一階段的建設正在繼續推進，我們預計將於 2026 年春季按時按預算完成。我們的 GRO 管道也達到了 COD，支援向 ECA LNG 供應天然氣。第三，由 Bechtel 作為 EPC 承包商的亞瑟港液化天然氣第一期工程及相關管道的建設均按時按預算進行。

Lastly, the development of Port Arthur LNG Phase 2 is in advanced development. We already have an HOA with Aramco that includes offtake of 5 million tons per annum and a 25% equity interest. We have a fixed price EPC agreement with Bechtel, and we have interest of well over 5 MTPA for the rest of the capacity for Phase 2. With this in mind, we're pleased to announce we're targeting FID in 2025. Please turn to the next slide.

最後，亞瑟港液化天然氣計畫二期的開發工作已進入後期階段。我們已經與阿美公司簽訂了 HOA，其中包括每年 500 萬噸的承購權和 25% 的股權。我們與 Bechtel 簽訂了固定價格 EPC 協議，我們對第二階段剩餘產能擁有超過 5 MTPA 的權益。考慮到這一點，我們很高興地宣布，我們的目標是在 2025 年實現 FID。請翻到下一張投影片。

At Sempra Infrastructure, we continue to focus on safety, discipline, development, and construction and operational excellence. At Cameron, which is now in its fourth year of full production, the team continues to optimize its operations with the plant reaching a 98% reliability rate in 2024. During 2024, Cameron loaded 193 cargoes and has now reached 895 cargoes since production began in May 2019.

在 Sempra Infrastructure，我們持續專注於安全、紀律、開發以及卓越的建設和營運。卡梅倫核電廠目前已進入全面投產的第四年，團隊繼續優化運營，預計到 2024 年，該廠的可靠性率將達到 98%。2024 年期間，Cameron 裝載了 193 批貨物，自 2019 年 5 月開始生產以來，目前已裝載 895 批貨物。

At Port Arthur LNG Phase 1, we have 3,600 workers on site, are building out the steel framework for the trains, tank construction, above ground and underground piping, marine berth dredging, and have commenced major equipment setting.

在亞瑟港液化天然氣計畫一期，我們現場有3,600名工人，正在進行列車鋼結構框架建設、儲槽建設、地上和地下管線建設、海上泊位疏浚，並已開始主要設備的設置。

We continue to target commercial operations for Train 1 and Train 2 in 2027 and 2028 respectively. At ECA LNG Phase 1, we're excited that the project has reached 90% completion, including engineering, procurement, and construction progress. Current work is now focused on pipe testing and insulation, electrical instrumentation, and pre-commissioning activities. Please turn to the next slide.

我們繼續將 1 號生產線和 2 號生產線分別於 2027 年和 2028 年投入商業營運作為目標。在 ECA LNG 第一階段，我們很高興看到該專案已完成 90%，包括工程、採購和施工進度。目前的工作重點是管道測試和絕緣、電氣儀表和預調試活動。請翻到下一張投影片。

Turning to Sempra Infrastructure's updated capital plan, we estimate spending $4 billion through 2029. As a reminder, per our convention we only include Sempra's proportionate share of capital of projects that have reached FID.

談到 Sempra Infrastructure 的最新資本計劃，我們估計到 2029 年將花費 40 億美元。提醒一下，按照我們的慣例，我們只包括 Sempra 在已達成 FID 的專案中應佔的資本份額。

And to be clear, our plan is narrowly focused on investments in LNG assets with 16 million tons per annum of projected capacity, as well as the supporting pipeline infrastructure. In the meantime, our renewable projects such as Cimarron represent a great way to layer in higher return projects with a shorter construction window to take advantage of Sempra infrastructure's excess electric transmission capacity.

需要明確的是，我們的計畫主要集中在對預計年產能 1,600 萬噸的液化天然氣資產以及配套管道基礎設施的投資。同時，我們的 Cimarron 等再生能源項目代表著一種很好的方式，可以在較短的建設時間內分層部署回報更高的項目，以充分利用 Sempra 基礎設施過剩的電力傳輸能力。

Overall, our assets have 18 years of average contract life remaining, which gives us confidence in our ability to continue delivering recurring cash flows and value to our owners in the foreseeable future. Please turn to the next slide.

總體而言，我們的資產平均剩餘合約壽命為 18 年，這使我們有信心在可預見的未來繼續為業主提供經常性現金流和價值。請翻到下一張投影片。

The development of Port Arthur LNG Phase 2 increases the value of our SI franchise. The brownfield expansion is expected to benefit from scale advantages and continuous construction under Bechtel's leadership. Furthermore, Phase 2 will benefit from the common facilities that will be completed in Phase 1. In combination, we believe this translates into a lower cost and lower risk expansion of Phase 2.

亞瑟港液化天然氣二期計畫的開發增加了我們 SI 特許經營權的價值。預計棕地擴建將受益於規模優勢和在 Bechtel 領導下的持續建設。此外，第二階段也將受益於第一階段完工的公共設施。綜合起來，我們相信這意味著第二階段的擴展成本更低、風險更低。

As I mentioned, we announced an HOA with Aramco for approximately half of the offtake where they'd also participate in 25% of the project equity. Additionally, we have well over 5 million tons per annum of interest for the remaining offtake and are confident in our ability to meet our customers' needs.

正如我所提到的，我們宣布與阿美公司達成了一項 HOA，獲得了大約一半的承購權，他們還將參與 25% 的專案股權。此外，我們對剩餘的承購量每年有超過 500 萬噸的興趣，並且有信心滿足客戶的需求。

Many of our stakeholders are eager for this project to succeed, including ConocoPhillips, as they mentioned in their recent earnings call.

我們的許多利害關係人渴望這個計畫取得成功，包括康菲石油公司，他們在最近的財報電話會議上提到了這一點。

Given recent commercial discussions for additional demand, the momentum of project development, and our continued expectation to receive the DOE non-FTA permit, we're excited to announce we're targeting a final investment decision later this year, pending the execution of definitive commercial agreements, obtaining permits, and securing financing, among other factors. Please turn to the next slide.

鑑於最近有關額外需求的商業討論、項目開發的勢頭以及我們對獲得 DOE 非 FTA 許可的持續期望，我們很高興地宣布，我們計劃在今年晚些時候做出最終投資決定，等待最終商業協議的執行、獲得許可和獲得融資等因素。請翻到下一張投影片。

Over the long run, our strategy is increasingly focused on the expansion of our dual base and LNG strategy, which could over time represent up to 90 million tons per annum in total LNG exports while significantly increasing the scope and scale of our business.

從長遠來看，我們的策略越來越專注於擴大我們的雙基地和液化天然氣策略，隨著時間的推移，這可能意味著每年液化天然氣出口總量高達 9,000 萬噸，同時大幅增加我們的業務範圍和規模。

The timing and ultimate ownership stakes in these projects will depend on market demand, which we believe will remain robust through 2040. For context, LNG demand has grown 6% per annum over the last 25 years, and going forward, we estimate that global demand could grow by up to another 350 million tons per annum through 2050.

這些項目的時間和最終所有權將取決於市場需求，我們相信市場需求將持續強勁成長至 2040 年。具體來說，過去 25 年來，液化天然氣需求每年增長 6%，展望未來，我們估計到 2050 年，全球需求每年可能增長 3.5 億噸。

Based on these forecasts and recent capital markets activity in the LNG infrastructure industry, we believe our infrastructure growth franchise continues to provide compelling value to Sempra's shareholders.

根據這些預測以及液化天然氣基礎設施行業近期的資本市場活動，我們相信我們的基礎設施成長特許經營權將繼續為 Sempra 的股東提供引人注目的價值。

Now please turn to the next slide where Karen will walk through the Sempra financial update.

現在請翻到下一張投影片，Karen 將在其中介紹 Sempra 的財務更新。

Thanks Justin. Earlier today, Sempra reported fourth quarter 2024 GAAP earnings of $665 million or $1.04 per share. This compares to fourth quarter, 2023 GAAP earnings of $737 million or $1.16 per share. On an adjusted basis, fourth quarter 2024 earnings were $960 million or $1.50 per share. This compares to our fourth quarter 2023 earnings of $719 million or $1.13 per share.

謝謝賈斯汀。今天早些時候，Sempra 公佈 2024 年第四季 GAAP 收益為 6.65 億美元，即每股 1.04 美元。相比之下，2023 年第四季的 GAAP 收益為 7.37 億美元，即每股 1.16 美元。經調整後，2024 年第四季收益為 9.6 億美元，即每股 1.50 美元。相比之下，我們 2023 年第四季的收益為 7.19 億美元，即每股 1.13 美元。

Full year 2024 GAAP earnings were $2,817 million or $4.42 per share. This compares to 2023 GAAP earnings of $3,030 million dollars, or $4.79 per share. On an adjusted basis, full year 2024 earnings were $2,969 million or $4.65 per share.

2024 年全年 GAAP 收益為 28.17 億美元，即每股 4.42 美元。相比之下，2023 年 GAAP 收益為 30.3 億美元，即每股 4.79 美元。經調整後，2024 年全年收益為 29.69 億美元，即每股 4.65 美元。

This compares to our previous full year 2023 adjusted earnings of $2,920 million or $4.61 per share. Please turn to the next slide.

相比之下，我們 2023 年全年調整後收益為 29.2 億美元，即每股 4.61 美元。請翻到下一張投影片。

Variances in the full year 2024 adjusted earnings compared to the same period last year can be summarized as follows: at Sempra California, we had $46 million primarily from higher electric transmission margin, higher AFUDC equity, and higher CPUC-based operating margin, and $157 million primarily from higher income tax benefits from flow through items including higher gas tax repair benefits, partially offset by higher net interest expense.

2024 年全年調整後收益與去年同期相比的差異可以概括如下：在 Sempra California，我們的收益為 4600 萬美元，主要來自更高的電力傳輸利潤率、更高的 AFUDC 股權和更高的 CPUC 運營利潤率，以及 1.57 億美元，主要來自利息支出的更高的收入稅收項目帶來更高的所得稅優惠，包括更高的汽油收益。

Turning to Sempra Texas, we had $43 million of higher equity earnings, primarily from higher invested capital and customer growth, partially offset by higher interest and operating expenses and lower consumption, primarily due to mild weather.

談到 Sempra Texas，我們的股權收益增加了 4,300 萬美元，這主要得益於更高的投資資本和客戶成長，但利息和營運費用的增加以及消費的減少（主要是由於天氣溫和）部分抵消了這一影響。

At Sempra Infrastructure, we had $170 million of lower transportation earnings, including the cumulative impact of new tariffs going into effect in 2023, lower asset and supply optimization, and lower volumes for the renewables business, partially offset by $50 million primarily from lower net interest expense due to higher capitalized interest and higher income tax benefits.

在 Sempra Infrastructure，我們的運輸收益減少了 1.7 億美元，其中包括 2023 年生效的新關稅的累積影響、資產和供應優化減少以及可再生能源業務的銷售減少，但部分抵消了 5000 萬美元，主要是由於資本化利息增加和所得稅優惠增加導致的淨利息支出減少。

At Sempra parent, the $77 million net decrease is primarily due to higher net interest expense and lower income tax benefits. Please turn to the next slide. Now let's turn to our planned investment over the next five years.

對於 Sempra 母公司而言，7,700 萬美元的淨減少主要是由於淨利息支出增加和所得稅優惠減少。請翻到下一張投影片。現在讓我們來談談未來五年的投資計畫。

Driven largely by growth at Sempra Texas, our new record $56 billion capital plan represents an increase of 16% over the prior year plan. Capital investment will remain overwhelmingly focused on our T&D infrastructure, with over 90% allocated to our regulated utilities.

在很大程度上受到 Sempra Texas 成長的推動，我們創紀錄的 560 億美元資本計畫比去年的計畫成長了 16%。資本投資仍將主要集中在我們的輸配電基礎設施上，其中 90% 以上分配給我們監管的公用事業。

In Texas, the growth is simply remarkable. And on top of that, the regulatory construct continues to improve with 97% of our investments now being recoverable through efficient tracker mechanisms which diminish the impact of regulatory lag.

在德州，這種成長簡直令人矚目。除此之外，監管結構不斷改善，目前我們 97% 的投資都可以透過有效的追蹤機制來收回，從而減少了監管落後的影響。

At Sempra California with the GRC final decision, SDG&E and SoCalGas are focused on executing the daily mission of delivering safe and reliable energy. As a reminder, our Sempra Infrastructure platform is underpinned by long-term US dollar denominated contracts that mitigate commodity and counterparty risk.

在 Sempra California，隨著 GRC 做出最終決定，SDG&E 和 SoCalGas 專注於執行提供安全可靠能源的日常任務。提醒一下，我們的 Sempra 基礎設施平台以長期美元計價合約為基礎，可降低商品和交易對手風險。

And our infrastructure business provides a great opportunity to achieve attractive risk adjusted returns on long duration energy infrastructure projects. With the long-term tailwinds we've discussed today, you can see there's a consistent pipeline of new opportunities to deploy capital, which supports increased earnings power for each of our three platforms.

我們的基礎設施業務為長期能源基礎設施專案實現有吸引力的風險調整回報提供了絕佳機會。借助我們今天討論的長期順風，您可以看到不斷湧現出新的資本部署機會，這將支持我們三個平台分別提高盈利能力。

Although there's a lot of excitement about our growth opportunities, we remain committed to a disciplined capital allocation process and financing our growth as efficiently as possible. Please turn to the next slide.

儘管我們的成長機會令人興奮不已，但我們仍然致力於嚴格的資本配置流程，並盡可能有效地為我們的成長提供資金。請翻到下一張投影片。

One of the key takeaways from our capital plan is that we're projecting total 2024 rate base of $56 billion to expand to over $91 billion by 2029 which amounts to a 10% compounded annual growth rate. Please turn to the next slide to cover our financing plan.

我們的資本計畫的一個重要結論是，我們預計 2024 年的總利率基數為 560 億美元，到 2029 年將擴大到 910 億美元以上，相當於 10% 的複合年增長率。請翻到下一張投影片來了解我們的融資計畫。

As we've highlighted throughout the morning, we have a very large capital plan focused on key investment opportunities with a primary focus on Texas. Our sources and uses calls for a thoughtful mix of investable cash from operations, debt and equity issuances, capital investments, and capital returns to shareholders.

正如我們早上所強調的那樣，我們有一個非常龐大的資本計劃，重點關注關鍵投資機會，主要關注德克薩斯州。我們的資金來源和用途包括來自經營活動的可投資現金、債務和股權發行、資本投資以及股東資本回報的綜合組合。

Consistent with past practice, our recurring cash flows provide the majority of funds planned for capital investments. You will recall that in late 2023 we sold approximately $1.3 billion of common stock that settled at the end of last year. We also established our $3 billion ATM program in November of last year and sold approximately $270 million in equity under the program in the fourth quarter.

與過去的做法一致，我們的經常性現金流提供了計劃用於資本投資的大部分資金。您會記得，我們​​在 2023 年底出售了價值約 13 億美元的普通股，並在去年年底結算。我們還在去年 11 月建立了 30 億美元的 ATM 計劃，並在第四季度根據該計劃出售了約 2.7 億美元的股權。

The plan presented today is intended to provide strong support for our credit ratings with equity issuances in the front end of the plan and share repurchases on the back end. As Jeff will share later, we've historically grown our earnings faster than the sector, which requires a higher level of reinvestment in the business.

今天提出的計劃旨在透過在計劃前端發行股票並在後端回購股票為我們的信用評級提供強有力的支持。正如傑夫稍後會分享的那樣，從歷史上看，我們的獲利成長速度比產業成長速度要快，這需要對業務進行更高水準的再投資。

We have remained consistent in both our dividend strategy and our commitment to maintaining a strong balance sheet. Please turn to the next slide.

我們的股利策略和維持強勁資產負債表的承諾始終如一。請翻到下一張投影片。

In response to requests from investors for a more fulsome view of Sempra's financing plans. In addition to the prior slide, which is our traditional view, this slide provides more detail into our financing strategy. On capital recycling, as we have demonstrated in the past, we'll evaluate and execute on opportunities at Sempra Infrastructure with a view toward improving our regulated business mix over time. In the future, we anticipate these opportunities could come from a variety of areas such as project equity, joint venture arrangements, asset sales, or further sell downs within the capital structure of Sempra Infrastructure partners, among other things.

響應投資者對 Sempra 融資計劃更全面了解的要求。除了上一張投影片（這是我們的傳統觀點）之外，這張投影片還提供了更多有關我們的融資策略的細節。在資本循環方面，正如我們過去所展示的那樣，我們將評估並執行 Sempra Infrastructure 的機會，以期隨著時間的推移改善我們的受監管業務組合。未來，我們預計這些機會可能來自多個領域，例如專案股權、合資安排、資產出售或 Sempra Infrastructure 合作夥伴資本結構內的進一步出售等。

What's most important is we're going to remain focused on continuing to provide significant value for shareholders as we look to fund our robust capital plan in the most efficient manner possible. Finally, we also remain committed to growing our dividend as part of our total shareholder return strategy and are now in our 15th consecutive year of dividend raises. Please turn to the next slide.

最重要的是，我們將繼續專注於為股東提供重大價值，同時尋求以最有效的方式為我們的強勁資本計劃提供資金。最後，作為我們整體股東回報策略的一部分，我們也將繼續致力於提高股息，目前我們已連續第 15 年提高股息。請翻到下一張投影片。

To wrap up my remarks, let me discuss our 2025 and 2026 guidance. As Jeff noted earlier, we're revising our 2025 EPS guidance range to $4.30 to $4.70. A revised range contemplates Oncor submitting for a base rate review this year, which impacts their tracker filings while the case is ongoing.

總結我的發言，讓我討論我們的 2025 年和 2026 年指導方針。正如傑夫之前提到的，我們將 2025 年每股收益預期範圍修改為 4.30 美元至 4.70 美元。修訂後的範圍考慮到 Oncor 今年提交基準利率審查，這將在案件審理期間影響其追蹤文件。

While there is a near-term earnings headwind this year associated with the filing, we believe it's the right business decision since Oncor is at an important inflection point in an unprecedented growth cycle. It's also important to note that the financial impact of higher growth at Oncor is not fully reflected in the intermediate term financial results due to regulatory lag. However, we know over time that Texas will realize increased benefits of this growth and continue to be a larger and important contributor of Sempra's earnings mix. Beyond the adverse impacts of Oncor filing its base rate review, there are other considerations impacting Sempra's 2025 guidance.

儘管今年的申請會帶來短期獲利阻力，但我們認為這是正確的商業決策，因為 Oncor 正處於前所未有的成長週期的重要轉折點。值得注意的是，由於監管滯後，Oncor 更高成長帶來的財務影響並未完全反映在中期財務表現中。然而，我們知道，隨著時間的推移，德州將從這種成長中獲得越來越多的利益，並繼續成為 Sempra 獲利組合中更大、更重要的貢獻者。除了 Oncor 提交基準利率審查的不利影響之外，還有其他因素影響 Sempra 的 2025 年指引。

At Sempra California we’re negatively impacted by the implementation of the GRC final decision, a 42 basis point decrease in our return on equity determined by the CPUC related to the CCM, as well as the FERC order removing 50 basis point California ISO adder to transmission-related ROE.

在 Sempra California，我們受到了 GRC 最終決定實施的負面影響，CPUC 確定的與 CCM 相關的股本回報率下降了 42 個基點，而且 FERC 命令取消了與傳輸相關的 ROE 中 50 個基點的加州 ISO 加法器。

Moving to Sempra Infrastructure, the two main variables factoring into the lower guidance are the delay in ECA LNG Phase 1 COD until spring of 2026 and recent changes to assumptions for natural gas prices. This will be partially offset by the optimization of transportation capacity.

轉向 Sempra Infrastructure，影響較低指引的兩個主要變數是 ECA LNG 第一階段 COD 推遲至 2026 年春季以及天然氣價格假設的近期變化。這將透過運輸能力的優化得到部分抵消。

Finally, at parent and Other, we've assumed higher interest expense as a result of higher capital investments in 2025 and weighting the capital structure mix more towards higher rate hybrid security issuances. Please turn to the next slide.

最後，在母公司和其他方面，我們假設由於 2025 年資本投資增加以及資本結構組合更偏向高利率混合證券發行，因此利息支出也會增加。請翻到下一張投影片。

Looking to 2026, we're announcing projected midpoint earnings of over $3.3 billion as ECA LNG Phase 1 and Cimarron Wind are expected to reach commercial operations, and we start to see more benefits from Oncor's increased investments, including the SRP. This results in a projected EPS range of $4.80 to $5.30 based on 660 million shares outstanding, reflecting minor impacts from equity sales under our financing programs.

展望 2026 年，我們宣布預計中期收益將超過 33 億美元，因為 ECA LNG 第一階段和 Cimarron Wind 預計將投入商業運營，並且我們開始看到 Oncor 增加投資（包括 SRP）帶來的更多收益。根據 6.6 億股流通股計算，預計每股收益範圍為 4.80 美元至 5.30 美元，反映出我們融資計畫下的股權銷售產生的較小影響。

To reiterate, we delivered solid financial performance in 2024 and we remain extremely excited about the future, particularly with improved visibility to strong growth in the medium and long term. With our new capital plan presented today, we're raising our projected long-term EPS growth rate to 7% to 9%.

需要重申的是，我們在 2024 年實現了穩健的財務業績，我們對未來仍然充滿期待，尤其是中長期強勁增長的可預見性有所提高。根據我們今天提出的新資本計劃，我們將預期的長期每股盈餘成長率提高到 7% 至 9%。

Please turn to the next slide where Jeff will finish with his closing remarks.

請翻到下一張投影片，傑夫將在這裡發表他的結束語。

Thank you, Karen. Next, I'd like to briefly summarize the key takeaways from today's call. Over the last three decades, roughly 10% of public companies have been successful in consistently growing earnings faster than US GDP. That's why I've long believed that EPS growth in our sector and others is loosely correlated to GDP growth.

謝謝你，凱倫。接下來，我想簡單總結一下今天電話會議的要點。在過去的三十年中，大約有 10% 的上市公司的獲利成長速度一直高於美國 GDP 的成長速度。這就是為什麼我一直相信我們產業和其他產業的每股盈餘成長與 GDP 成長之間存在鬆散的相關性。

Looking at this slide, you can see this play out over the last 5, 10, and 20 plus year time horizons. US GDP has grown on average at 2% and over those same time periods, the utility sector has grown earnings per share in the range of 3% to 4%. In contrast, over those same time periods, Sempra has been successful in growing its adjusted earnings per share faster than both US GDP and the utility sector's adjusted earnings.

透過這張投影片，您可以看到過去 5 年、10 年和 20 多年的進展。美國 GDP 平均成長率為 2%，而在同一時期，公用事業部門的每股盈餘成長率在 3% 至 4% 之間。相較之下，在同一時期，Sempra 的調整後每股盈餘成長速度卻超過了美國 GDP 和公用事業部門的調整後收益。

Note too that we're one of the few companies in the utility sector who have both (1) announced a long-term EPS growth forecast of 7% to 9% and also (2) delivered that same level of growth over the short and long term.

還要注意的是，我們是公用事業領域中為數不多的幾家既 (1) 宣布長期每股收益增長預測為 7% 至 9%，又 (2) 在短期和長期內實現了相同水平增長的公司之一。

We've been able to accomplish this by emphasizing the importance of a clear corporate strategy, disciplined capital allocation, and efficient sourcing of capital while also simplifying and de-risking our business and advancing a culture of high performance. To be clear, we have a bullish view of Sempra's future growth, and we believe we're in the right markets with the right strategy to continue posting strong financial results over the long term. Please turn to the next slide.

我們透過強調清晰的公司策略、嚴格的資本配置和高效的資本來源的重要性，同時簡化和降低業務風險並推動高績效文化來實現這一目標。需要明確的是，我們對 Sempra 的未來成長持樂觀態度，並且我們相信我們處於正確的市場中，採取了正確的策略，能夠在長期內繼續取得強勁的財務業績。請翻到下一張投影片。

In 2024, we delivered a total return of 21%. As shown on this slide, Sempra has also delivered a solid total return over the last three years of 45%, which compares favorably to the utility sector. Please turn to the next slide.

2024年，我們的總回報率為21%。如本投影片所示，Sempra 在過去三年也實現了 45% 的穩健總回報率，與公用事業行業相比表現優異。請翻到下一張投影片。

There are two key takeaways here. First, there is a changing business mix within Sempra's earnings composition where we're targeting higher exposure to US investments and specifically regulated utilities.

這裡有兩個關鍵要點。首先，Sempra 的獲利結構中的業務組合不斷變化，我們的目標是更多地投資於美國投資和受特別監管的公用事業。

Second, driven by a portfolio of remarkable investment opportunities in Texas, our Sempra Texas platform is projected to account for over half of our record $56 billion five-year capital plan.

其次，在德州一系列卓越投資機會的推動下，我們的 Sempra Texas 平台預計將占我們創紀錄的 560 億美元五年資本計畫的一半以上。

Given the plan that Allen outlined today and the clear line of sight to significant new investments that fall outside of Oncor's $36 billion plan, we are taking concrete steps to firmly set our growth strategy around the Texas market. That includes setting an aspirational goal of producing one half of Sempra's earnings from Texas by the end of the decade. Please turn to the next slide.

鑑於艾倫今天概述的計劃以及 Oncor 360 億美元計劃之外的重大新投資的明確路線，我們正在採取具體步驟，堅定地圍繞德克薩斯市場制定我們的成長策略。其中包括設定一個宏偉目標，即到本世紀末，Sempra 一半的收益將來自德克薩斯州。請翻到下一張投影片。

Earlier I reviewed the strength of our recent total return. On this slide you can see that Sempra has been successful in posting strong total returns that compete favorably to the utility sector and the broader market over a longer time horizon.

之前我回顧了我們近期總回報的強度。在這張投影片上，您可以看到 Sempra 已成功實現強勁的總回報，在較長時期內與公用事業部門和更廣泛的市場形成有利競爭。

That's why from our perspective, the blueprint for long term value creation comes from investing in good businesses, running them well, building leadership positions in key economic markets, allocating excess cash flow wisely and compounding returns over long periods of time.

這就是為什麼從我們的角度來看，長期價值創造的藍圖來自於投資優秀的企業、良好地運營它們、在關鍵經濟市場中建立領導地位、明智地分配多餘的現金流以及在長期內複合回報。

At this point I'll pause and we'll take a moment to open up the line to take your questions. Thank you for joining today's call. Before opening up the Q&A, I want to make a few supplemental remarks. I know we passed out a lot of new information this morning and the changes and assumptions are causing impacts to your financial models and also a lot of frustration.

現在我將暫停一下，我們將花一點時間來回答你們的問題。感謝您參加今天的電話會議。在開始問答環節之前，我想補充幾點。我知道我們今天早上發布了許多新訊息，這些變化和假設對你們的財務模型產生了影響，也帶來了很多挫折感。

So let me start off by apologizing. We have lowered our guidance in 2025 due to a series of issues, most notably key changes in our planning assumptions in the last couple of months. First, the California GRC came in in late December below our planning assumptions, particularly on the front end of the plan.

因此，首先請允許我道歉。由於一系列問題，最明顯的是過去幾個月我們的規劃假設發生了重大變化，我們下調了 2025 年的預期。首先，12 月底加州 GRC 的表現低於我們的規劃假設，特別是在計畫的前端。

We do have opportunities, however, to support stronger growth from Sempra California in the back half of the plan as we get recovery from the investments we're making outside the GRC-based revenues.

然而，隨著我們從 GRC 收入之外的投資中獲得收益，我們確實有機會在計劃的後半段支持 Sempra California 實現更強勁的增長。

Second, based on the FERC decision on December 31, we have removed the FERC CAISO Adder from our expected return on our transmission assets in California. And finally, and this is an important one, we think it's the right decision for Oncor to go back in early for a base rate review to reset its cost structure, and that puts downward pressure on their earnings forecast for this year. That decision will be made by the Oncor team later this spring.

其次，根據 FERC 12 月 31 日的決定，我們已從加州輸電資產的預期回報中刪除了 FERC CAISO Adder。最後，這一點很重要，我們認為 Oncor 提前進行基準費率審查以重置其成本結構是正確的決定，這將對其今年的獲利預測造成下行壓力。Oncor 團隊將於今年春季晚些時候做出該決定。

Now turning to guidance, we had the opportunity to continue a 6% to 8% growth rate off of 2024 actuals. I'd like to repeat that, we could have maintained a 6% to 8% growth rate, but we chose not to because we have fundamentally raised our expectation of the earnings power of this business over the long term.

現在談到指導，我們有機會繼續保持 2024 年實際 6% 至 8% 的成長率。我想重申一下，我們本來可以維持6%到8%的成長率，但我們選擇不這麼做，因為我們從根本上提高了對這個業務長期獲利能力的預期。

We have discussed this difference in view of long-term growth on previous earnings calls. But at Sempra, our long-term growth forecast represents the growth we expect to produce over a sustained period of time. In this higher growth environment, we believe that range is 7% to 9% and we've appropriately raised our guidance.

我們在先前的收益電話會議上從長期成長的角度討論過這種差異。但在 Sempra，我們的長期成長預測代表了我們期望在一段持續的時間內實現的成長。在這種較高的成長環境下，我們認為成長範圍是 7% 至 9%，並且我們適當地提高了預期。

Turning now to our current five-year plan, we expect to grow earnings per share at 9% or higher, and we expect the earnings contribution from Texas, which is more valued in the market, to significantly increase as a part of our overall earnings mix with Oncor's rate base roughly doubling over the planned period.

現在談談我們目前的五年計劃，我們預計每股收益將增長 9% 或更高，並且我們預計來自市場上更受重視的德克薩斯州的收益貢獻將作為我們整體收益組合的一部分大幅增加，而 Oncor 的利率基數將在計劃期間大約翻一番。

Before I close out, let me tell you why we're confident in our plan and producing results well above what we've talked about today. Number one, as Karen talked about in her prepared remarks, the most important way to finance growth is through operating cash flows, that's why we have various initiatives underway at our company to improve our cost structure and our financial returns. Improved financial returns will improve our long-term growth.

在結束之前，讓我告訴你們為什麼我們對我們的計劃充滿信心，並且取得的成果遠遠超出了我們今天所談論的。首先，正如卡倫在準備好的發言中談到的那樣，融資成長的最重要方式是透過經營現金流，這就是為什麼我們公司正在採取各種舉措來改善我們的成本結構和財務回報。財務回報的提高將促進我們的長期成長。

Number 2, as Allen outlined, his team expects to add another $12 billion to their capital plan. It's important to be clear here that is incremental capital that is expected within the plan period between 2025 and 2029.

第二，正如艾倫所概述的，他的團隊預計將在其資本計劃中再增加 120 億美元。這裡需要明確的是，這是 2025 年至 2029 年計畫期間預計的增量資本。

Third: Port Arthur Phase 2 is not included in the plan, but we certainly expect that project to move forward later this year. You'll recall we have a very conservative practice of only putting projects in the plan at Sempra Infrastructure after they have reached a final investment decision. And finally, number 4, in our utility segments, there are other planned opportunities related to authorized ROEs and capital structure as well as other improvements to the applicable regulatory construct.

第三：亞瑟港二期工程未包含在計劃中，但我們確實預計該項目將在今年稍後取得進展。您會記得，我們​​有一個非常保守的做法，即只有在做出最終投資決定後，才會將專案納入 Sempra Infrastructure 的計劃。最後，第四，在我們的公用事業部門，還有其他與授權 ROE 和資本結構以及適用監管結構的其他改進相關的計劃機會。

In conclusion, we have lowered our guidance for 2025, but the key takeaway is we expect to produce stronger earnings per share growth in the future. Conservatively, we expect to produce 9% or higher through 2029, and it will disproportionately come from Sempra Texas.

總之，我們下調了 2025 年的預期，但關鍵在於我們預期未來每股盈餘將實現更強勁的成長。保守估計，到 2029 年，我們的產量將達到或超過 9%，而且大部分將來自 Sempra Texas。

I'll stop at this point so the operator can open the call, and we'd be glad to take your questions.

我就此打住，以便接線員可以開始通話，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

Shar Pourreza, Guggenheim Partners.

沙爾‧普爾雷扎，古根漢合夥人。

Good morning, guys. Good morning, Jeff. So just maybe starting off on the '25 rebase, there's just three pieces I want to reconcile there.

大家早安。早安，傑夫。因此，也許從 25 年的重新定基開始，我只想協調三個部分。

First, is the plan embedding lower rate-based growth in California? Or is that partially moved to future plan years? And similarly in Texas, does the higher interest in investment cost in '25 reverse with the potential base rate filing? And then third, the natural gas sensitivity that remains at SIP, what was assumed versus the downward revision for '25 there? Thanks. I mean it's a loaded question, but it's just --

首先，該計劃是否會在加州嵌入較低的利率成長？或部分轉移到未來計畫年度？同樣在德州，25 年投資成本的較高利息是否會與潛在的基準利率相反？第三，SIP 處仍存在的天然氣敏感度，與 25 年的下調相比，假設是什麼？謝謝。我的意思是這是一個有傾向性的問題，但它只是--

Look Shar, there's no question our revised guidance falls below the prior expectation that we've set. That being said, I think we're making the right decision for the business, particularly looking to bring Oncor in earlier for a base rate review.

聽著，夏爾，毫無疑問，我們修訂後的指引低於我們先前設定的預期。話雖如此，我認為我們為業務做出了正確的決定，特別是希望儘早讓 Oncor 參與基準費率審查。

The answers to your question are yes, yes, and we have not disclosed the third answer. What I thought might be helpful is to see if Karen can go through a little bit more detail. Karen, if you want to return to slide 42, it might be helpful to walk through the key drivers to our 2025 guidance.

你這個問題的答案是肯定的，是的，第三個答案我們還沒透露。我認為看看 Karen 是否可以更詳細地講解一下可能會有所幫助。凱倫，如果你想回到第 42 張投影片，了解我們 2025 年指引的關鍵驅動因素可能會有所幫助。

Sure, thanks, Jeff. So I think, we just finished to finalize the five-year plan with our Board last week, and there's a few key items at each business platform. So the first one that Jeff talked about, at Sempra Texas, our plan assumes that Oncor does file this comprehensive base rate review rather than waiting until 2027.

當然，謝謝，傑夫。所以我認為，我們上週剛與董事會敲定了五年計劃，每個業務平台上都有一些關鍵項目。因此，Jeff 談到的第一個問題是，在 Sempra Texas，我們的計畫假設 Oncor 確實提交了這項全面的基準費率審查，而不是等到 2027 年。

Among other things, this impacts their tracker filings during the course of the proceeding, but it also provides the opportunity to update their revenue requirements to reflect the higher O&M, insurance costs and interest expense that they're seeing.

除此之外，這會影響他們在訴訟過程中的追蹤備案，但也提供了更新其收入要求的機會，以反映他們所看到的更高的 O&M、保險成本和利息支出。

With the unprecedented growth in Texas, we think it makes sense to file more periodic rate cases to ensure the company's financial strength. And while this is a negative for 2025, we think it's the right thing to do for Texas future growth.

隨著德州前所未有的成長，我們認為提交更多定期利率案件以確保公司的財務實力是有意義的。雖然這對 2025 年來說是一個負面因素，但我們認為這對德州未來的發展是正確的做法。

Turning to California, we have adjusted our financial forecast to include the final decision on the GRC, which came in below the assumptions that were included in our prior plan. Also, it's important to note that the CPUC lowered the authorized return on equity by 42 basis points for 2025, that's in addition to the FERC 50 basis points CAISO adder that Jeff spoke about.

談到加州，我們已經調整了財務預測，以包括對 GRC 的最終決定，該決定低於我們先前計劃中的假設。此外，值得注意的是，CPUC 將 2025 年的授權股本回報率降低了 42 個基點，這是 Jeff 提到的 FERC 50 個基點 CAISO 加法之外的。

In combination, these three items put downward pressure on our previous forecast for Sempra California. And then of course at SI last year we announced a change in the expected schedule for commercial operations at ECA LNG to spring of 2026.

綜合起來，這三個因素對我們先前對 Sempra California 的預測造成了下行壓力。當然，去年在 SI 我們宣布將 ECA LNG 的商業營運預期時間表更改為 2026 年春季。

And finally, at parent, we're seeing higher interest expense from growth in our capital plan as well as updated assumptions related to changes in interest rates over the prior year's forecast. Given all these impacts, it was important for us to reset our 2025 guidance and create a new base for our expected growth.

最後，從母公司來看，我們看到資本計畫的成長以及與上一年預測相比利率變化相關的假設的更新導致利息支出增加。考慮到所有這些影響，我們必須重新設定 2025 年的指導方針，並為預期的成長奠定新的基礎。

Thank you, Karen. And Shahriar to your third question. Obviously, our natural gas price assumption has gone down across the plan period.

謝謝你，凱倫。Shahriar 回答您的第三個問題。顯然，我們的天然氣價格假設在整個計劃期間已經下降。

Got it. And then just lastly, shifting just to the forward view, you're highlighting the upside in Texas that is material and longer term on the SIP side with Port Arthur going into service and Port Arthur 2 now on an FID track, I guess the incremental to the new 7% to 9% plan. What does that imply for where you are in the range coming off the lower base, especially these incremental items coming into plan? And I'm asking more on the current trajectory, not beyond ‘29. Can you breach the 9% in the current trajectory? Thanks.

知道了。最後，從長遠來看，您強調了德克薩斯州的優勢，這是 SIP 的實質性和長期優勢，隨著亞瑟港投入使用，亞瑟港 2 現在處於 FID 軌道上，我猜新的 7% 到 9% 計劃的增量。這對於您所在範圍內較低基數的範圍意味著什麼，特別是這些進入計劃的增量項目？我要求的更多的是當前的軌跡，而不是 29 年後的軌跡。按照目前的軌跡，你能突破 9% 嗎？謝謝。

Yes, Shahriar, thank you for that question. In the supplemental remarks I made earlier on this call, I clarified that we fully expect in the 2025 to 2029 plan to be at 9% or higher as a CAGR across that plan period. But remember, as we've always talked about, we tend to guide our EPS forecasts over long periods of time at 7% to 9%. It just so happens that in the plan period we fully expect to exceed that.

是的，Shahriar，謝謝你的提問。我在本次電話會議早些時候所做的補充說明中澄清說，我們完全預計 2025 年至 2029 年計劃期間的複合年增長率將達到 9% 或更高。但請記住，正如我們一直在談論的那樣，我們傾向於將長期每股收益預測控制在 7% 到 9% 之間。碰巧的是，在計劃期間我們完全有望超越這一水平。

Fantastic. Thank you guys so much. Appreciate it.

極好的。非常感謝你們。非常感謝。

Thank you, Shar.

謝謝你，莎爾。

Nick Campanella, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的尼克·坎帕內拉。

Hey, good morning, everyone, or good afternoon. Thanks for taking the time. So I just wanted to touch on, you're raising your rate-based CAGR about 1%, and I understand you have to finance a lot of this capital, and there's lag in Texas, but 1% increase in the rate-based CAGR for roughly a 10% or more cut in EPS expectations just seems somewhat counterintuitive.

嘿，大家早上好，或是下午好。感謝您抽出時間。所以我只是想提一下，你們將基於利率的複合年增長率提高了約 1%，我知道你們必須為這筆資金投入大量資金，而且德克薩斯州存在滯後，但基於利率的複合年增長率提高 1%，而每股收益預期卻下降約 10% 或更多，這似乎有點違反直覺。

And I know that you said you can get back, but you're within the 6% to 8% off of 2024 when you look back to the original plan, you can get there, but even using the high end of the 7% to 9% plan, it doesn't imply that you're really back in that range until '29. I could have something wrong with the math there, but just, why is it prudent to invest this much amount of capital and for shareholders to kind of take this much pain up front for that capital. Thank you.

我知道您說過您可以恢復，但是當您回顧原始計劃時，您在 2024 年的 6% 到 8% 的折扣範圍內，您可以實現這一目標，但即使使用 7% 到 9% 計劃的高端，也不意味著您直到 29 年才能真正回到該範圍。我的計算可能有些錯誤，但是，為什麼投資這麼多資本並讓股東為這些資本預先承受這麼大的痛苦是明智之舉呢？謝謝。

Yeah, thank you, Nick, for the question. On a couple of points there is we did clarify that we could have maintained a 6% to 8% long term EPS growth rate off of 2024 actuals, and that gives you some sense about how we're thinking about the future.

是的，謝謝你，尼克，提出這個問題。在幾點上，我們確實澄清過，我們本可以維持基於 2024 年實際值的 6% 至 8% 的長期 EPS 成長率，這讓您了解我們對未來的看法。

What's fundamentally changed in this higher growth environment for all utilities is we think we have the opportunity for sustained EPS growth at levels above 6% to 8%, and we've got it into the long term for that range.

在所有公用事業公司都面臨更高成長的環境下，根本性的變化是，我們認為我們有機會實現每股收益持續成長 6% 至 8% 以上，而且我們已經將這一成長保持到長期水平。

In the plan that we're talking about, we will not produce 7% to 9%. We expect to produce 9% or higher. And to your point, there's no question that the front end of our financial results has been impacted. We've got a lot of work to do as a management team to grind through 2025 to exceed expectations and come back in 2026 and do it again.

在我們正在討論的計劃中，我們不會產生7%到9%的產量。我們預計產量將達到 9% 或更高。正如您所說，毫無疑問我們的財務表現前端受到了影響。作為管理團隊，我們還有很多工作要做，努力在 2025 年超越預期，並在 2026 年再次取得突破。

But long term, there's a fundamental view in our company that we have the opportunity to produce higher earnings and higher earnings per share than we've done historically, and that's why we're guiding to above the 9% range for the 2025 to 2029 period. And let me give you an example of why I'm so bullish, if you'll allow me.

但從長遠來看，我們公司的基本觀點是，我們有機會實現比歷史上更高的收益和每股收益，這就是為什麼我們預計 2025 年至 2029 年期間的成長率將超過 9%。如果您允許的話，請讓我給您舉個例子來說明我為何如此樂觀。

Number one, go back to Oncor. This is one of the upsides to our plan, and I think it's very important to be clear about what our expectations are. Oncor has a base plan of $36 billion. It's shown on slide 14. This is a conservative view and generally covers only three areas of planned investment, Nick. First, approved investments inside SRP.

第一，回到 Oncor。這是我們計劃的優點之一，我認為明確我們的期望非常重要。Oncor 的基本計劃為 360 億美元。它顯示在第 14 張投影片上。這是一個保守的觀點，通常只涵蓋計劃投資的三個領域，尼克。首先，批准SRP內部的投資。

Number 2, capital investments where all regulatory approvals are already in hand and capital needed to satisfy large C&I transmission requests that are subject to an existing interconnection or other agreement. Within that same planning horizon of 2025 to 2029.

第二，所有監管部門批准已經到位的資本投資，以及滿足現有互連或其他協議約束的大型 C&I 傳輸請求所需的資本。在同一規劃期間內，即 2025 年至 2029 年。

Again, 2025 to 2029, Oncor management expects to make additional capital investments totaling $12 billion and that's really important, and I'm just going to ballpark it for you. But if you run that through the waterfall of their earned ROE and their existing equity layer, that's $400 million to $500 million of upside earnings that we're talking about coming from that capital, and you can see that reflected on slide 15.

再次，2025 年至 2029 年，Oncor 管理層預計將進行總計 120 億美元的額外資本投資，這非常重要，我只是為您大概介紹一下。但是，如果你將其透過其獲得的 ROE 和現有股權層進行匯總，那麼我們所談論的來自該資本的上行收益為 4 億至 5 億美元，你可以在幻燈片 15 上看到這一點。

So allow me to talk about Nick, what some of those incremental opportunities are that are expected by the Oncor management team. There's seven of them. Number one, updates to the roll forward system resiliency plan for calendar years '28 and '29. You'll recall that SRP today finishes in 2027, roughly.

因此，請允許我談談尼克，Oncor 管理團隊所期待的一些增量機會是什麼。一共有七個。第一，更新 28 和 29 日曆年的滾動系統彈性計畫。您會記得，今天的 SRP 大約在 2027 年完成。

Number 2, transmission investments in the Delaware Basin load integration plan. They are awaiting regulatory approval today. Transmission projects required by the local plan within the Permian Basin reliability study where regulatory approvals are also pending, and similarly, import pathways arising from the Permian Basin reliability study.

第二，特拉華盆地負載整合計畫中的輸電投資。他們今天正在等待監管部門的批准。二疊紀盆地可靠性研究中當地計畫所需的輸電項目也正在等待監管部門的批准，同樣，二疊紀盆地可靠性研究中產生的進口路徑。

There are three more. New transmission projects for customers who are expected to sign interconnection or other agreements. And number 6, new transmission identified in ERCOT's strategic transmission expansion plan. They're expected within the planning period and finally, additional maintenance and distribution upgrades.

還有三個。針對預計將簽署互連或其他協議的客戶的新輸電項目。第六，ERCOT 策略輸電擴展計畫中確定的新輸電。預計它們將在規劃期內最終完成額外的維護和分發升級。

When we acquired the majority of Oncor in 2018, their rate base was $12 billion. Today is more than doubled to $26 billion and we expect it to double again to over $52 billion by 2029, and that $52 billion does not have the $12 billion of additional investments that are now expected.

當我們在 2018 年收購 Oncor 的大部分股權時，他們的利率基數為 120 億美元。如今，這一數字已成長一倍多，達到 260 億美元，我們預計到 2029 年，這一數字將再次翻一番，達到 520 億美元以上，而這 520 億美元中還不包括現在預期的 120 億美元的額外投資。

When you take the base plan together with the additional capital opportunities outlined, Oncor expects to invest approximately $48 billion in electrical network through 2029. I hope that's helpful.

如果將基本計劃與概述的額外資本機會結合起來，Oncor 預計到 2029 年將在電網上投資約 480 億美元。我希望這會有幫助。

Thanks for the information. And then I guess just moving to the equity needs, you clarify, it seems like there's a lot of equities in the front part of the plan. Is that going to be, would you consider a block and then you kind of talk about buying back stocks, in footnote 2, the sources and uses and I heard you in the prepared remarks, Karen, just if you're issuing equity and repurchasing equity in the same five-year plan, where does the balance sheet stand in the near term and why is that the right kind of strategy here?

謝謝你的資訊。然後我想只需轉到股權需求，您澄清一下，似乎計劃的前半部分有很多股權。那會是嗎？你會考慮一個區塊，然後你會談論回購股票，在腳註 2 中，來源和用途，我在準備好的評論中聽到了你，凱倫，如果你在同一個五年計劃中發行股票和回購股票，那麼資產負債表在短期內處於什麼位置，為什麼這是正確的策略？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah, Nick, I'll address that and Karen, you can come in if you want to add anything to my comment, but I would refer you to slide 33, Nick. Our equity needs are substantially similar to what we'd outlined on a net basis, over the last couple of years.

是的，尼克，我會解決這個問題，凱倫，如果你想對我的評論進行任何補充，你可以進來，但我建議你看幻燈片 33，尼克。我們的股權需求與過去幾年我們在淨基礎上概述的股權需求基本相似。

I would -- the three things I'd focus on is the most efficient source of financing is always our operating cash flow. We have a number of different initiatives in place to improve returns and lower costs so we can maximize our internally generated cash flows. That will be a priority and the core part of our financing plan.

我會——我要關注的三件事是，最有效的融資來源始終是我們的營運現金流。我們採取了多項不同的措施來提高回報並降低成本，以便最大限度地提高內部產生的現金流。這將是我們的融資計劃的優先事項和核心部分。

Second, we'll look to issue new debt as well as new hybrids that get 50% equity treatment. And to your point, I want to speak specifically to it. You'll recall last quarter we established an ATM program to provide additional financing flexibility.

其次，我們將考慮發行新債券以及獲得 50% 股權待遇的新混合債券。針對你的觀點，我想具體談談。您會記得，上個季度我們建立了 ATM 計劃以提供額外的融資靈活性。

We plan to use that program and other sources of equity financing, including asset sales at Sempra Infrastructure. We've got an evaluation process underway focusing on our Mexican assets. And that's something we'll look to update the street on in the coming months and quarters.

我們計劃利用該計劃和其他股權融資來源，包括 Sempra Infrastructure 的資產出售。我們正在進行一項以墨西哥資產為重點的評估過程。我們將在未來幾個月和幾個季度內更新這項資訊。

That can come in the form of selling down further in the capital structure at SI, as well as the expected asset sales I referenced. Assuming asset sales at or above the $1 billion level, we expect to issue $2 billion to $3 billion in net equity, and that's reflected on slide 33. Each of these sources will be used to officially fund our capital plan.

這可以採取進一步出售 SI 資本結構的形式，以及我提到的預期資產出售的形式。假設資產銷售額達到或超過 10 億美元，我們預計將發行 20 億至 30 億美元的淨股權，這反映在第 33 張投影片中。這些來源都將用於正式資助我們的資本計劃。

Steve Fleishman, Wolf Research.

史蒂夫‧弗萊什曼，沃爾夫研究公司。

Good morning, Steve.

早安，史蒂夫。

Yeah. Thanks for the question. So just could you give us some sense of where FFO to debt is at for, I guess '24 and '25 and just if you had a chance to show the new plan of the rating agencies and how that affects their view. Thanks.

是的。謝謝你的提問。那麼，您能否讓我們了解一下 24 年和 25 年的 FFO 與債務比率，以及您是否有機會展示評級機構的新計劃以及這將如何影響他們的觀點。謝謝。

Yeah, sure. One of the things we do, Steve, is we always coordinate our capital plan, our expected sources and uses closely with the rating agencies. This is obviously something we'll be meeting with them in later this spring, but Karen, perhaps you can just update Steve on where we're at in terms of current discussions.

是的，當然。史蒂夫，我們所做的事情之一就是始終與評級機構密切協調我們的資本計劃、預期來源和用途。顯然，我們將在今年春季晚些時候與他們會面討論這個問題，但是凱倫，也許你可以向史蒂夫報告一下我們目前討論的進展。

Sure. So I will say for '24 we're below their metrics for FFO to debt for the main agencies. We are in constant discussions with them about our financial plan, and that's why in our sources and uses you saw that we had some equity in there and that of course is to get us closer to those metrics that they're looking for in FFO to debt.

當然。因此，我想說，對於 24 年度而言，我們的主要機構的 FFO 與債務比率低於他們的指標。我們一直在與他們討論我們的財務計劃，這就是為什麼在我們的資料來源和用途中您會看到我們擁有一些股權，這當然是為了讓我們更接近他們在 FFO 與債務之間尋找的指標。

The other thing I would add, Steve, that's been helpful recently is we crystallized the 2023 offering that we had in forwards at the end of December. We also got off some ATM equity in the fourth quarter and obviously adding about $3 billion of hybrids last year was also helpful.

史蒂夫，我想補充的另一件事是，最近我們明確了 12 月底提出的 2023 年遠期報價，這對我們很有幫助。我們也在第四季出售了一些 ATM 股權，顯然去年增加的約 30 億美元混合資產也有幫助。

Okay. But are you going to disclose what the FFO to debt that was or is in the plan?

好的。但是，您是否會揭露計劃中過去或現在的 FFO 與債務的關係？

Well, we target it, -- we target, obviously 15% at S&P. And Karen or Glen you'll add anything else to that.

嗯，我們的目標是——顯然，標準普爾的目標是 15%。還有 Karen 或 Glen 可以添加其他內容嗎？

Yeah, obviously, our plan is to meet and exceed those metrics. So those are the discussions that we're having with the rating agencies right now, and the equity that Jeff took you through is going to be what gets us there, yeah.

是的，顯然我們的計劃是達到並超越這些指標。這就是我們現在與評級機構進行的討論，傑夫向您介紹的公平性將幫助我們實現這一目標，是的。

So Steve, I think we're comfortable in the plan that will meet our metrics for 2025.

所以史蒂夫，我認為我們對這個能夠滿足我們 2025 年指標的計劃感到滿意。

Okay. And then on the earned returns in Texas, can you give us any flavor on just even in '26, but by the time you do have relief, kind of what earned ROEs are you earning and like a rough cut looks like they're still like 7% to 8%, but could be wrong there, but just like, how do you get those up toward the allowed and when?

好的。然後關於德克薩斯州的已獲回報，您能否給我們提供一些關於 26 年的情況，但到您獲得救濟時，您獲得的 ROE 是多少，粗略估計似乎仍然在 7% 到 8% 之間，但可能存在誤差，但是，您如何以及何時將這些 ROE 提高到允許的水平？

Yeah, thank you for the question. For our audience, you'll recall that we've got a 9.7% authorized ROE because -- we file two different trackers both for distribution and transmission each year. Steve, you're noting it correctly. We've got regulatory lag at that business that impacts our earned ROE.

是的，謝謝你的提問。對於我們的觀眾來說，您會記得，我們​​獲得了 9.7% 的授權 ROE，因為——我們每年為分銷和傳輸提交兩個不同的追蹤器。史蒂夫，你注意到了這一點。我們在該業務上存在監管滯後，這影響了我們的淨資產收益率。

The second thing that impacts earned ROE, Steve, is remember they have a backwards test year. So right now they're operating off of their 2021 cost structure. The most important thing is across that planning cycle they will generally be between 8% and 9%.

史蒂夫，影響 ROE 的第二件事是記住他們有一個向後的測試年份。因此，他們現在按照 2021 年的成本結構進行營運。最重要的是，在整個規劃週期中，它們通常會在 8% 到 9% 之間。

At some point in the five-year plan they're actually above 9%. A couple of things are happening, right? SRP, both the current SRP and the roll forward SRP for '28 and '29 are helpful. Plus we expect to do things relative to our ROEs and equity layers and probably just as importantly is to chew up our cost structure.

在五年計畫的某個階段，這一比例實際上超過了 9%。有幾件事正在發生，對吧？SRP，無論是當前 SRP 還是 '28 和 '29 的滾動 SRP 都是有幫助的。此外，我們希望採取與我們的 ROE 和股權層相關的措施，而且可能同樣重要的是削減我們的成本結構。

One of the things that they've gone through is they've historically not gone in for rate cases on a periodic basis. But I think what's important now is they're going through so much growth, Steve, as they build out their delivery capability.

他們經歷過的事情之一是，他們歷來不會定期處理利率案件。但我認為現在重要的是，史蒂夫，他們正在經歷巨大的成長，因為他們正在建立他們的交付能力。

It's very important and we should assume that they come back in for more periodic rate cases. So we're comfortable that they'll have higher earned ROEs across the planning period, but generally they run in that 8% to 9% and much closer to 9%, a little bit above or below that toward the end of the planning cycle.

這非常重要，我們應該假設他們會回來處理更多定期利率案件。因此，我們相信他們在整個規劃期內將獲得更高的 ROE，但一般來說，他們的 ROE 在 8% 到 9% 之間，並且更接近 9%，在規劃週期結束時會略高於或低於這個數字。

Okay. Last question, just, obviously, this is a big reset to the prior plans, and then you've kind of highlighted now this 9% growth, up from the 7% to 9% you said this morning. Just what, Jeff, or could you say we talked to folks like you're going to do differently to make sure you hit this 9% or better?

好的。最後一個問題，顯然，這是對先前計劃的重大調整，然後您現在強調了 9% 的成長率，高於您今天早上所說的 7% 到 9%。傑夫，或者您能否說我們與像您這樣的人談過，您將採取不同的做法以確保達到 9% 或更高的目標？

Yeah, a couple of things. I appreciate you giving me the opportunity to have the question. I think we've got the right strategy, Steve. We've got a good financing plan. We've got a lot of growth, and part of what you're challenged to do is make sure that you're allocating capital to the highest opportunities.

是的，有幾件事。感謝您給我機會提出這個問題。我認為我們的策略是正確的，史蒂夫。我們有一個很好的融資計劃。我們取得了巨大的成長，而我們所面臨的挑戰之一就是確保將資本分配給最有價值的機會。

I think what we just went through with our Board of Directors, and we just finalized our financial plan last week, is making sure that we're allocating capital, Steve, disproportionately to the businesses we think will earn the highest value on the street.

我認為我們剛剛與董事會討論過的事情，以及我們上週剛剛敲定的財務計劃，是為了確保我們將資本不成比例地分配給我們認為將在市場上獲得最高價值的企業，史蒂夫。

And you're seeing us gear our capital plan around growth at Oncor and our Sempra Texas segment. One of the most important things we can do is continue to deliver better regulatory outcomes. We had a series of regulatory outcomes at the end of 2024, and you recall, Steve, that California rate case was supposed to be decided in December of 2023.

您會發現，我們圍繞 Oncor 和 Sempra Texas 分部的成長制定了資本計劃。我們能做的最重要的事情之一就是繼續提供更好的監管結果。我們在 2024 年底獲得了一系列監管結果，史蒂夫，你還記得嗎，加州利率案應該在 2023 年 12 月做出裁決。

So that put a lot more entropy into our financial plan. So I'd offer three things to you. Number 1, we need to finish our financial planning process earlier in the year. Number 2, we need to make sure that we're delivering better regulatory outcomes. And number 3, which I feel very good about is we need to continue to allocate capital with a lot of discipline where we can produce the best results.

所以這給我們的財務計劃帶來了更多的混亂。因此我想向你們提供三件事。第一，我們需要在今年稍早完成財務規劃流程。第二，我們需要確保提供更好的監管結果。第三點，我感到非常高興的是，我們需要繼續嚴格地分配資本，以便產生最好的結果。

And I think taking Oncor back in for a rate case, even though it pushes downward pressure on their returns this year, is the right thing for the business longer term. So just a little bit of a different view in terms of how you frame that is.

我認為，讓 Oncor 重新參與利率訴訟，儘管這會對他們今年的回報造成下行壓力，但從長遠來看，這對業務來說是正確的。因此，就您如何構建這一點而言，這只是一個稍微不同的觀點。

There is a 100% chance that we have lowered our expectations for what we can produce in '25 and '26. That's a management issue. I personally own that. You should expect to see us fight and claw to exceed expectations in 2025, and we should come back and do that again in 2026.

我們完全有可能降低了 25 年和 26 年產量的預期。這是一個管理問題。我個人認為這是正確的。您應該會看到我們在 2025 年奮力拼搏，超越預期，我們應該在 2026 年再次做到這一點。

But the key point I want to tell you is, the earnings power of this business is higher today than it was a year ago. So you can focus on the 2029 plan, but our longer term assumption of what we can produce in a higher growth environment has gone up, and that's not really related to the reset of 2025.

但我要告訴大家的重點是，這個業務今天的獲利能力比一年前還要高。因此，您可以關注 2029 年的計劃，但我們對在更高成長環境下能夠生產的長期假設已經上升，這與 2025 年的重置並沒有什麼關係。

We see more earnings power in the business, and what we need to do, Steve, is spend more time with our investors and the sell-side to make sure there's no asymmetry of knowledge. The planning numbers we have in front of us are not the exact planning numbers y'all have visibility to, so I think part of the answer to your question is let's find ways to have more transparency so that you have the same confidence that we do in the long term earnings power of the business.

我們看到該業務的盈利能力有所提高，史蒂夫，我們需要做的就是花更多時間與我們的投資者和賣方溝通，以確保不存在知識不對稱。我們面前的計劃數字並不是你們所看到的確切計劃數字，所以我認為你問題的部分答案是讓我們找到提高透明度的方法，以便你們對我們在企業的長期盈利能力有同樣的信心。

Thank you. Appreciate it.

謝謝。非常感謝。

Thank you, Steve.

謝謝你，史蒂夫。

David Arcaro, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的戴維‧阿卡羅。

Good morning David.

早安，大衛。

Hey, good morning. Thanks so much for taking the question. I guess, maybe a bit of a continuation of that last question. Is there a point in the plan where you expect that crossover to meet kind of when you catch back up to the prior 6% to 8%, EPS growth, level.

嘿，早安。非常感謝您回答這個問題。我想，這也許是最後一個問題的延續。您是否預期在計劃中的某個時間點，當您恢復到先前 6% 至 8% 的 EPS 成長水準時，這種交叉會實現？

Look, I'm not sure that we're providing the guidance as to where the crossover occurs. I think what we're trying to express is we've really revised the long-term view of the earnings per share growth rate that we can deliver while talking about inside our five-year planning period, we expect to beat that rate of growth, and that's really important.

看，我不確定我們是否提供了有關交叉發生位置的指導。我認為我們想要表達的是，我們確實修改了我們在五年規劃期間所能實現的每股盈餘成長率的長期觀點，我們預計將超過這一成長率，這一點非常重要。

I mean, even today in the fifth year of our plan, we've got an earnings per share number that is well above the fifth year of last year's plan, right? So what we're trying to do is make sure that we're guiding the strength of our convictions about the business growth, the ability to grow the business in the long term, and we don't feel great about the 2025 guidance, but it was the right thing to do for the business. Our job now, David, is to make sure that we execute well on '25 and '26, to make sure we earn everyone's confidence.

我的意思是，即使在我們計畫的第五年，我們的每股盈餘也遠高於去年計畫的第五年，對嗎？因此，我們試圖做的是確保我們對業務成長、長期成長業務的能力有堅定的信念，我們對 2025 年的指導並不感到樂觀，但這對業務來說是正確的做法。大衛，我們現在的工作是確保我們在 25 年和 26 年表現良好，以確保我們贏得每個人的信任。

Yeah, understood, appreciate the comments there. And then maybe, would you be able to touch on the -- we've got active legislative backdrops, I guess in both Texas and California here would you be able to touch on your thoughts around potential impact or changes to the financial profile of Texas utilities based on any legislation that could come this session and then maybe, on the wildfire legislative backdrop in California, any efforts there to look for some more longer term changes to the wildfire funding and protection in the stage.

是的，明白了，感謝您的評論。然後，也許您能夠談談——我們目前有積極的立法背景，我想在德克薩斯州和加利福尼亞州，您能否談談您對本屆會議可能通過的任何立法對德克薩斯州公用事業的財務狀況的潛在影響或變化的看法，然後也許，在加利福尼亞州的野火立法背景下，那裡是否有任何努力尋求對野火資金和保護進行一些更長期的改變。

Sure, there's a variety of questions there, but what might be helpful is, let me give you a little bit of visibility into where the growth is coming from in Texas because I think that's reflective of the quality of the legislative session we had two years ago, and I think that also impacts how Allen can talk about that.

當然，這裡面有各種各樣的問題，但可能有幫助的是，讓我給你稍微介紹一下德克薩斯州的增長來自哪裡，因為我認為這反映了我們兩年前立法會議的質量，我認為這也影響了艾倫如何談論這個問題。

But Allen, you could do two things maybe provide a little bit of color about where you're seeing growth show up on the system and how that influences some of the regulatory initiatives -- regulatory and legislative initiatives you're following in Austin.

但是艾倫，您可以做兩件事，也許可以提供一些關於您在系統中看到的增長點以及這對一些監管舉措（您在奧斯汀遵循的監管和立法舉措）的影響。

I know I talked a lot about growth in my prepared remarks, but it's unprecedented. Really unlike anything we've ever seen, and I'll try to break it down into some categories and maybe provide some color and some context.

我知道我在準備好的發言中談了很多關於成長的問題，但這是前所未有的。確實與我們所見過的任何東西都不一樣，我會嘗試將其分成幾個類別，並提供一些顏色和背景。

First, premise growth, as I said before, continues to be around 2% annual. We connected 77,000 new premise in '24, a 5% year-over-year increase from '23. The story really continues to be transmission points of interconnection where we set a record for new and active transmission POIs in our queue, the total for '24 is up above the total for '23 by about 28%, broken down into generation and LC&I, the two categories your generation and '24 is up about 8% over where it was in December of '23.

首先，正如我之前所說，前提成長率繼續保持在每年 2% 左右。24 年，我們連結了 77,000 個新場所，比 23 年年增 5%。故事實際上繼續是互連的傳輸點，我們在隊列中創下了新的和活躍的傳輸 POI 的記錄，'24 年的總數比 '23 年的總數高出約 28%，分為發電和 LC&I，發電和 '24 年的兩個類別比 '23 年 12 月增長了約 8%。

And then the real story continues to be on the LC&I queue where '24 numbers were up about 62% above where they were in December of '23. This LC&I queue presently represents about 137 gigawatts of potential load. That's about a 250% increase over where we were in December of '23.

然後，真正的故事繼續發生在 LC&I 隊列中，其中 24 年的數字比 23 年 12 月增加了約 62％。該 LC&I 隊列目前代表約 137 千兆瓦的潛在負載。這比 2023 年 12 月的水平增長了約 250%。

Broken down two ways into two pieces rather, about 119 gigawatts of that 137 total is data centers and about 18 gigawatts is non-data center, more traditional LC&I.

更確切地說，以兩種方式細分為兩部分，總共 137 個中約有 119 千兆瓦來自資料中心，約有 18 千兆瓦來自非資料中心，即更傳統的 LC&I。

With regard to this potential LC&I load, in 2024 we submitted to ERCOT a list of LC&I customers that we had high confidence that they would eventually sign an agreement and post collateral, which we believe are clear key indicators of the likelihood of the potential load actually materializing. So in 2024, we submitted 25 gigawatts of high confidential -- high confidence load rather.

關於這種潛在的 LC&I 負荷，我們在 2024 年向 ERCOT 提交了一份 LC&I 客戶名單，我們非常有信心他們最終會簽署協議並提供抵押品，我們認為這些都是潛在負荷實際實現可能性的明確關鍵指標。因此，在 2024 年，我們提交了 25 千兆瓦的高機密——或者說高可信度負載。

In 2025, we increased that to 29 gigawatts of high confident potential load. So when you look at our 25 high confidence low projection of 29 and you add that to the number of customers with whom we already have signed agreements involving collateral, that represents potential new load of approximately 36 gigawatts on a system that presently peaks about 31 gigawatts. So We're looking at increasing potentially our peak load by about 200% or more by 2031 now.

到 2025 年，我們將高置信潛在負荷提高到 29 千兆瓦。因此，當您查看我們 29 的高置信低預測值並將其添加到我們已經簽署了涉及抵押品協議的客戶數量時，這代表在目前峰值約為 31 千兆瓦的系統中可能產生約 36 千兆瓦的新負載。因此，我們預計到 2031 年我們的尖峰負載可能會增加約 200% 或更多。

An important component to that factor or that fact rather is that is LC&I customers alone. That growth number does not include residential growth, does not include small commercial growth, and it doesn't include oil and gas growth that will connect to ultimately connect to the Permian project. So when you're looking at our $36 billion five- year capital plan right now.

該因素或事實的一個重要組成部分是，它僅僅是 LC&I 客戶。這一成長數字不包括住宅成長、不包括小型商業成長，也不包括最終與二疊紀計畫相關的石油和天然氣成長。因此，當您查看我們現在的 360 億美元五年資本計劃時。

We only have about 12 gigawatts of that LC&I load in the $36 billion plan, with about 8.5 gigawatts of that being data.

在這項 360 億美元的計劃中，我們的 LC&I 負載只有大約 12 千兆瓦，其中約 8.5 千兆瓦是數據。

So to Jeff's point, when you look at the incremental bucket, we fully expect much of that $12 billion to ultimately be part of our base plan.

所以正如傑夫所說，當你查看增量桶時，我們完全預計這 120 億美元中的大部分最終將成為我們基礎計劃的一部分。

I'll just conclude by saying West Texas remains very strong. The far west Texas weather zone that set a new peak that was in '24 that was about 16% plus above the prior year peak. And then with regards to our two transmission loops that serve that area, the Culberson new peak in '24 was about 42% above the peak in '23, and the Stanton peak was about 8.8% above the '23 peak.

最後我想說的是，西德克薩斯州仍然非常強大。德州最西部的氣象區在 24 年創下了新的峰值，比前一年的峰值高出約 16% 以上。然後，就我們為該地區提供服務的兩條輸電環路而言，24 年卡爾伯森的新峰值比 23 年的峰值高出約 42%，斯坦頓的峰值比 23 年的峰值高出約 8.8%。

So overall incredibly strong growth all over our system, which is really driving the increased cap numbers that Jeff's just described.

因此，我們整個系統的整體成長都非常強勁，這確實推動了 Jeff 剛才所描述的上限數字的成長。

I'm talking about regulatory initiatives you're tracking.

我正在談論您正在追蹤的監管舉措。

Yeah, so we're early on in the Texas legislative session. And we still have a long ways to go with committee hearings and bills still being filed. Some of the things that we're particularly interested in or following are, various ideas related to the backlog and increase in large load customers, much of which I just discussed, and in particular, issues related to cost allocation issues, for example, SB 6.

是的，我們正處於德克薩斯州立法會議的早期階段。我們還有很長的路要走，委員會聽證會和法案仍在提交中。我們特別感興趣或關注的一些事情是與積壓和大負荷客戶增加有關的各種想法，其中大部分我剛才已經討論過，特別是與成本分配問題有關的問題，例如 SB 6。

A proposals to reflect utility actual cap structures as reflected in recent financial filings such as HB 2668. We think this would be an important step because it would shore up the balance sheets of the state's utilities during this high period of really strong growth.

一項反映公用事業實際上限結構的提案，如 HB 2668 等最近的財務文件所反映的那樣。我們認為這將是重要的一步，因為它將在經濟真正強勁增長的時期支撐該州公用事業的資產負債表。

And then we're tracking various ideas that could potentially set limits on utility liabilities of utilities given, some of the more challenging weather events that we're all facing, and there's been at least a couple of bills filed in that regard, maybe more to come.

然後，我們正在追蹤各種想法，這些想法可能會對公用事業的公用事業責任設定限制，考慮到我們都面臨的一些更具挑戰性的天氣事件，在這方面至少已經提出了幾份法案，可能還會有更多。

So we're going to continue watching. There's other concepts as well, but those are kind of some of the key areas right now. I think the bottom line is we remain very confident. And that the state of Texas will continue to implement good public policies that support both our customers and our shareholders.

因此我們將繼續觀察。還有其他概念，但這些是目前的一些關鍵領域。我認為最重要的是我們仍然非常有信心。德州將繼續實施良好的公共政策，並支持我們的客戶和股東。

Thank you, Allen, and David, I'll also talk a little bit about how we're thinking about legislation in California. As we have a financial backstop in place today under AB 1054. Over the last five years, I think that's served the state well, providing stability to the marketplace, as well as allowing utilities to raise capital efficiently, which also reduces costs to customers.

謝謝艾倫和戴維，我還將談談我們對加州立法的看法。由於我們目前已根據 AB 1054 建立了財務支援。在過去五年裡，我認為這對國家很有幫助，為市場提供了穩定性，同時也使公用事業公司能夠有效地籌集資金，從而也降低了客戶的成本。

I'm not prepared to forecast the outcome of this legislative session, but I'm confident that the right people are focused on the issue with a view toward reducing risk. And remember, this is not just a utility issue. This is a broader wildfire risk. It's really a societal issue in California.

我還沒有準備好預測本次立法會議的結果，但我相信合適的人會關注這個問題以降低風險。請記住，這不僅僅是一個實用性問題。這是一個更廣泛的野火風險。這確實是加州的社會問題。

I would also note that on slide 47 and 48, David, we provide a wildfire mechanism summary about how it works currently. And in that scenario at the very bottom of the second page on 48, you can see it outlines that the liability cap at SDG&E using that 20% of the rolling three year average rate base is $1.4 billion, and that's a worst case scenario.

我還要指出的是，大衛，在幻燈片 47 和 48 上，我們提供了野火機制摘要，介紹了它目前的工作原理。在這種情況下，在第二頁最底部的第 48 頁，您可以看到，它概述了 SDG&E 使用滾動三年平均利率基數的 20% 的責任上限為 14 億美元，這是最壞的情況。

Beyond the wildfire mechanism, SDG&E has not had a significant utility caused wildfire in 17 years. And recently SDG&E encountered substantially similar in some cases worse red flag conditions than was experienced in the LA region this year, and SDG&E successfully managed its system safely.

除了野火機制之外，SDG&E 17 年來從未發生過由公用事業引起的重大野火。最近，聖地牙哥瓦斯電力公司 (SDG&E) 遇到的紅旗狀況與今年洛杉磯地區遇到的紅旗狀況基本上相似，有些甚至更為嚴重，但聖地牙哥瓦斯電力公司還是成功地安全管理了其係統。

So we think there's an opportunity for legislation. We feel great about the backdrop of AB 1054, but the most thing, -- the most important thing we can do as a management team across all three of our business platforms is run our businesses safely and protect our communities.

因此我們認為存在立法的機會。我們對 AB 1054 的背景感到非常滿意，但最重要的是——作為我們三個業務平台的管理團隊，我們能做的最重要的事情就是安全地經營我們的業務並保護我們的社區。

Great, thanks very much.

太好了，非常感謝。

Thank you, David.

謝謝你，大衛。

Ross Fowler, Bank of America.

美國銀行的羅斯‧福勒。

Good morning, Ross.

早安，羅斯。

So just a couple of questions, kind of maybe one for you, Karen, go back to slide 42 for a second, just trying to understand kind of the moving pieces and maybe the magnitude of the moving pieces a little bit. I know the exact magnitudes aren't here, but, the California GRC PD was out in the fall. And ECA LNG Phase 1 was delayed to the spring of '26 on -- in August I believe of last year. So with that sort of contemplated in your prior '25 guidance kind of on the third quarter call on that EEI, or is that pushing you to the low end? Or is most of the magnitude sort of midpoint to midpoint based on the Texas changes, the 50 basis points, but the things that we've gotten since then, or just trying to figure out what was in '25 on the third quarter call and some of these factors and then what kind of moved everything.

所以我只有幾個問題，也許其中一個是給你的，凱倫，請回到幻燈片 42 一秒鐘，只是想稍微了解一下移動的部分以及移動的部分的幅度。我知道這裡沒有確切的震級，但是加州 GRC PD 在秋季就出動了。而 ECA LNG 第一階段被推遲到 26 年春季——我記得是去年 8 月。那麼，您之前在 25 年指導中是否考慮到了第三季的 EEI 預測，還是會將其推向低端？或者大部分幅度都是基於德克薩斯州變化的中點到中點，即 50 個基點，但從那時起我們得到的東西，或者只是試圖弄清楚第三季度電話會議上 25 年的情況以及其中一些因素，然後是什麼推動了一切。

Sure, Ross, thank you for the question. Obviously, we talked about the three most important recent events, two of which were at the very end of December and then the recent decision on the base rate case in Oncor. Karen, why don't you go back and review some of the 2025 issues that we're referring to?

當然，羅斯，謝謝你的提問。顯然，我們討論了最近發生的三件最重要的事件，其中兩件發生在 12 月底，另一件是最近對 Oncor 基準利率案的判決。凱倫，為什麼不回去回顧我們所提到的一些 2025 年問題呢？

Sure, and it's a good question because as we're working on our plan, all through the fall, and again, I mentioned we just finalized it recently, so some of the data points we had, and some we did not. So starting with the California rate case, we had a proposed decision in that rate case. We received the final at the end of December, which was unfortunately not -- we thought it would get better between the proposed and the final. That's typically what we see. We did not see that here.

當然，這是一個很好的問題，因為我們整個秋季都在製定計劃，而且我再次提到我們最近才最終確定了計劃，所以我們有一些數據點，而有些則沒有。因此，從加州利率案開始，我們針對該利率案提出了判決。我們在 12 月底收到了最終結果，但不幸的是並沒有——我們認為在提議結果和最終結果之間情況會變得更好。這就是我們通常所見的。我們在這裡沒有看到這一點。

And then going into January as we implemented, that rate case, we continue to see more, pieces as we put that through our financial plan. And again, the impact it's having of having things outside the rate case and having to hold those funds on our balance sheet is causing additional pressure because it's taking so long for us to get that funding.

然後進入 1 月份，當我們實施該利率案例時，我們繼續看到更多的細節，因為我們將其納入了我們的財務計劃。再說一次，它對利率案例之外的事情產生的影響以及必須將這些資金保留在我們的資產負債表上會造成額外的壓力，因為我們需要很長時間才能獲得這些資金。

Now again, we think that gets resolved in the latter half of our plan, but that was certainly an impact that continued to get worse. The other two big pieces in California, the piece we knew about was the was the cost to capital. So that was the bigger of the two, obviously. And I think you could cast that as probably about, $50 million hit there. What was added at the end of December was the FERC CAISO adder that again was unexpected, so, that's closer, I think, to about $20 million additional. So those are two things that also impacted California.

現在，我們認為這個問題在我們計劃的後半部分得到了解決，但這肯定會造成持續惡化的影響。我們所知道的加州的另外兩個大塊是資本成本。顯然，這是兩者中較大的一個。我認為你可以估算出，那裡的損失大約是 5,000 萬美元。12 月底增加的是 FERC CAISO 附加費，這也是意料之外的，所以，我認為，這接近額外的 2000 萬美元。所以這兩件事也對加州產生了影響。

In Texas, this is really brand new. We really looked at the plan, we talked a lot to Oncor about going in for this rate case, just seeing the higher cost of capital growth. The rise in insurance overall O&M costs, the decision here really is, it's a hit to '25. We think it's the right thing to do. So I know it's hard. I know it's disappointing. We think this is the right decision to get earnings in the future.

在德克薩斯州，這確實是全新的。我們認真研究了這個計劃，我們與 Oncor 就這個利率案例進行了大量討論，只是看到了更高的資本增長成本。保險整體營運和維護成本的上升，這裡的決定確實對 25 年造成了打擊。我們認為這是正確的做法。所以我知道這很難。我知道這令人失望。我們認為這是獲得未來收益的正確決定。

And then, as I mentioned, as we load in the Texas growth, which was again higher than we anticipated in even November or December, that's having us, increased interest at the parent, to fund all this growth. So there's a mixture there of things we knew in the third quarter and then things that became newly aware of in late December and, really, some of these items just in the last two weeks.

然後，正如我所提到的，隨著我們考慮到德克薩斯州的增長，這一增長甚至高於我們在 11 月或 12 月的預期，這增加了我們對母公司的興趣，為所有這些增長提供資金。因此，其中既有我們在第三季了解到的事情，也有我們在 12 月底才了解到的事情，實際上，有些事情是在過去兩週內才了解到的。

Jeff, do you want to add anything there?

傑夫，你想添加什麼嗎？

No, I think that's good.

不，我認為那很好。

Yeah, thank you. And then just Jeff, you said something interesting about the growth rate because it's growing at about 12%, 13% midpoint to midpoint '25 to '26, and then you said, interestingly on the call that that should pull through the future years.

是的，謝謝。然後傑夫，你對成長率說了一些有趣的事情，因為它的成長率約為 12%，25 年到 26 年中點的成長率為 13%，然後你在電話會議上說，有趣的是，這種成長率應該會持續到未來幾年。

So I think about 7% to 9%, I'm just trying to think about the right base here. Should I think about that 7% to 9% or now you're saying above 9% off the '26 base because that growth is pulling through, or should I think about the above 9% on the '25? How should I go?

所以我認為大約是 7% 到 9%，我只是試著在這裡考慮正確的基礎。我應該考慮 7% 到 9% 嗎？或者現在您說的基於 26 年基數的 9% 以上，因為這種增長正在逐漸顯現，還是我應該考慮基於 25 年基數的 9% 以上？我該怎麼去呢？

I think this is one of the challenges, Ross. I think we've had conversations with you on and other analysts. For many years, we did not have a long-term EPS growth rate, and I think it was in 2022 where we brought that back. And one of the reasons we brought it back was we view that as a long term expectation of sustained growth. What do we think we can produce. So think about that over 7 to 10 years.

我認為這是挑戰之一，羅斯。我想我們已經與您以及其他分析師進行了交談。多年來，我們沒有長期的每股盈餘成長率，我認為我們在 2022 年恢復了這一成長率。我們重新考慮這項政策的原因之一是，我們認為這是對長期持續成長的預期。我們認為我們能生產什麼。所以請考慮一下 7 到 10 年後的情況。

We're really in an upswing of capital spending across the industry. And based on our visibility, and we try to provide some of that today, as you saw the growth that Oncor's anticipated in the 2030 to 2034 time frame. So we have a raised expectation of how we can grow the business over the long term. Now, when you come back inside the 2025 to 2029 plan, which you're articulating, we certainly think that we're going to be at or above the high end of that, right?

我們確實正處於整個產業資本支出上升的時期。基於我們的預見性，我們嘗試在今天提供一些信息，正如您所看到的，Oncor 預計在 2030 年至 2034 年期間將實現增長。因此，我們對如何長期發展業務抱持更高的期望。現在，當您回到您所闡述的 2025 年至 2029 年計劃時，我們當然認為我們將達到或超過這個高端，對嗎？

And the issue will be what happens in the intra planning years that you're referring to and this is one of the issues is most analysts just take 1.07 or 1.08 and they add that each year in the plan. And we don't expect our earnings growth to be like that. We expect there to be periods of growth well above 7% to 9% at various parts of the plan, and you're going to have years like you have now where you've got the lower growth in 2025.

問題在於您所指的規劃年度內會發生什麼，其中的一個問題是大多數分析師只取 1.07 或 1.08，然後在計劃中每年添加這個數字。我們並不期望我們的獲利成長會是那樣。我們預計，在計畫的各個階段，成長率將遠高於 7% 至 9%，而 2025 年則會出現像現在這樣的成長率較低的時期。

So if you think about our business over a long period of time, we have had inflection points just like you see today. The management team is frustrated by it. Many of our investors are frustrated by it. But fundamentally, our view of what we can produce over longer periods of time has increased, and we're going to try to do exactly what you're talking about, increase the growth rate in the intra planning years through 2029. And I've given you kind of a road map of the things we're going to be focused on to try to improve our projections.

因此，如果你從長遠角度考慮我們的業務，我們會發現我們已經經歷了像今天這樣的轉折點。管理團隊對此感到沮喪。我們的許多投資者對此感到沮喪。但從根本上來說，我們對長期內產量的認識已經提高，我們將努力按照您所說的去做，提高到 2029 年規劃年度內的成長率。我已經向你們提供了我們將要關注的事情的路線圖，以嘗試改善我們的預測。

And some of that growth means, Jeff, to be fair, is the lumpiness of when the LNG projects come into that in the period?

傑夫，公平地說，這種成長意味著液化天然氣計畫在該時期進入成長階段時會產生不均勻性嗎？

That's exactly correct. I mean as an example, you raised this with Karen, but it was a significant issue that we could maintain guidance for 2025 by moving ECA Phase 1 out of 2025. That was a big issue. We felt comfortable, we had planning room to do that, but there was kind of a series of things that put us in the low end of the range, as Karen talked about. And these three recent events, I think, caused us to reassess 2025.

完全正確。我的意思是，舉個例子，你向凱倫提出了這個問題，但這是一個重大問題，我們可以透過將 ECA 第一階段移出 2025 年來維持 2025 年的指導。這是一個大問題。我們感到很舒服，我們有計劃空間來做到這一點，但正如卡倫所說的那樣，有一系列的事情使我們處於範圍的低端。我認為，最近發生的這三件事促使我們重新評估2025年。

2025 is an inflection point for us, Ross. I think you're on the right issues. We're going to exceed expectations relative to the 7% to 9%. What we have to do a better job of is in the near term, producing results that exceed expectations. We've got a track record of doing that, and there's a commitment on our management team to get back to that.

2025 年對我們來說是一個轉捩點，羅斯。我認為你討論的問題是正確的。相對於 7% 到 9% 的比例，我們將會超出預期。我們要做得更好的是在短期內取得超出預期的成果。我們有這樣做的記錄，我們的管理團隊也承諾會重新做到這一點。

Okay, thank you very much.

好的，非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Carly Davenport, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的卡莉·達文波特。

Hello Carly.

你好，卡莉。

Hey Jeff, thanks for taking the questions. Maybe just two quick ones for me on upcoming regulatory filings. First, just as you look to cost of capital, in California, just given some of the moving pieces there lately. Can you talk a little bit about what you expect to put forth there? And anything you can share about what's embedded kind of in the plan around California returns?

嘿，傑夫，謝謝你回答這個問題。關於即將提交的監管文件，我只想快速回答兩個問題。首先，正如您所看到的，在加利福尼亞州，最近發生了一些變化。您能否稍微談談您希望提出什麼？能分享一下加州回報計畫的具體內容嗎？

Yeah. I would just start by saying that we saw some backwardation in the authorized returns in California, in the last 12 months as there were changes to the cost of capital mechanism. That filing is upcoming for our company, and we look forward to doing that.

是的。首先我想說的是，由於資本成本機制的變化，我們發現過去 12 個月加州的授權回報率出現了一些溢價。我們公司即將提交該文件，我們對此充滿期待。

I think our planning assumption is something very similar to what we have in the plan today. We also think, given the market environment is an opportunity to improve our returns in the state.

我認為我們的規劃假設與我們今天的計劃非常相似。我們也認為，鑑於目前的市場環境是我們提高回報的機會。

Great. That's helpful. And then just as you look towards the potential Oncor rate case filing, I apologies if I missed this, but I think you had mentioned a more frequent cadence of filings there going forward? Just kind of any color on what you think that could look like relative to the four-year requirement?

偉大的。這很有幫助。然後，正如您所期待的潛在的 Oncor 費率案件備案一樣，如果我錯過了這一點，我很抱歉，但我認為您提到過未來備案的節奏會更頻繁？您認為這與四年的要求相比有什麼樣的關係？

Yeah. You'll recall that the two rate cases ago, Oncor settled their rate case in November of 2017. That was in the middle of our purchase of the EFH interest. They went back in with a base year of 2021 to prosecute that case in 2022. And remember, it wasn't actually finalized until May of '23. So you've got a rate case in May of 2023 with a cost run rate in that business off of 2021 and think about the growth they've been through, Carly, in terms of headcount, O&M, increased insurance cost.

是的。您會記得，在之前的兩起利率案件中，Oncor 於 2017 年 11 月解決了利率案件。當時我們正處於購買 EFH 權益的過程中。他們以 2021 年為基準年，於 2022 年再次起訴該案件。請記住，它實際上直到 23 年 5 月才最終完成。因此，您得到了 2023 年 5 月的費率案例，其中該業務的成本運行率是 2021 年的，想想他們在員工人數、運營和維護、保險成本增加方面經歷的增長，卡莉。

And I think that's really been together with the regulatory lag putting pressure on their earned ROEs. We think this is the right time. It's something that we don't want to be definitive about in the middle of the legislative session. But we're comfortably enough to assume that in our guidance, and it does put material downward pressure on our expectation for 2025. But you'll see that have a very positive expectation in 2026. It will depend on when those rates are effective. We think this is the right thing to do to put them on a better footing to earn much higher earned ROEs.

我認為這確實與監管滯後有關，這給他們的淨資產收益率帶來了壓力。我們認為現在正是合適的時機。我們不想在立法會議期間就此事做出最終決定。但我們有足夠的信心在我們的指導中假設這一點，而且它確實對我們對 2025 年的預期產生了實質的下行壓力。但你會發現，我們對 2026 年的預期非常樂觀。這將取決於這些利率何時生效。我們認為這是正確的做法，可以讓他們處於更有利的地位，從而獲得更高的淨資產收益率。

Appreciate that color, thank you.

欣賞那個顏色，謝謝。

Thank you, Carly.

謝謝你，卡莉。

Anthony Crowdell, Mizuho.

瑞穗的安東尼克勞德爾。

Just two quick questions. One is, I guess, maybe it's kind of following Steve's question earlier, if I think about the cadence of regulatory filings, I think there's another filing that would happen in California, maybe in '26 for new rates in '28.

只要問兩個簡單的問題。一方面，我想，這可能有點像史蒂夫之前提出的問題，如果我考慮監管備案的節奏，我認為加州還會有另一份備案，可能是在 1926 年，然後在 1928 年制定新的利率。

What confidence do you have that the plan is stressed enough that we don't have a repeat of -- it looks like a challenging filing came as December that caused this reset that the next plan a similar thing, given even though Texas is growing, it's still 45% of the company?

您有何信心，認為該計劃已得到足夠重視，不會重蹈覆轍？看起來，12 月提交的一份具有挑戰性的文件導致了重置，下一個計劃也會出現類似的事情，因為儘管德克薩斯州正在增長，但它仍然占公司的 45%？

Yeah. A couple of things is through 2027, when we come back into California and file the next rate case, the good news in California is use a forward test year, which I think is a positive fact. We've also got the pending FERC decision about what our new FERC rate of return will be. Now you may remember, we filed for 12.25% without the FERC adder, that's 11.75% there's an opportunity to prosecute that case or settle it, but we think there's an opportunity to improve returns at FERC. Obviously, Carly mentioned this, too, but the cost of capital mechanism this year is a positive. And obviously, the regulatory filings taking place at Oncor is a positive.

是的。到 2027 年，當我們回到加州並提交下一個利率案件時，加州的好消息是使用遠期測試年，我認為這是一個積極的事實。我們還需要等待聯邦能源管理委員會 (FERC) 做出關於我們新的回報率的決定。現在您可能還記得，我們​​申請的稅率為 12.25%，不包括 FERC 附加稅，也就是 11.75%，有機會起訴或解決該案件，但我們認為有機會提高 FERC 的回報。顯然，卡莉也提到了這一點，但今年的資本成本機制是正面的。顯然，Oncor 提交的監管文件是一件好事。

I will mention that CenterPoint on their recent rate case got a slightly higher bump to their equity layer. Clearly, I think there's an opportunity there as well for Oncor. So look, I think we've got the business set up now where we have relatively conservative assumptions I've outlined all the positive aspects of opportunities that are not in the plan.

我要提到的是，CenterPoint 在最近的利率案例中，其股權層獲得了略高的提升。顯然，我認為 Oncor 也有機會。所以看，我認為我們現在已經建立了業務，我們有相對保守的假設，我已經概述了計劃中沒有的機會的所有積極方面。

But you're raising another good one, which is there are opportunities around earned ROEs, capital structure and other issues in the regulatory compact, both in Texas and California and with FERC, which could prove to be upside to our plan.

但您提出的另一個好問題是，無論是在德克薩斯州、加利福尼亞州還是聯邦能源管理委員會，在獲得 ROE、資本結構和監管協議中的其他問題方面都存在機會，這可能對我們的計劃有利。

Okay. And then just one quick follow-up. I think to Ross' question, you talked about investors may miss some of the earnings power of the company if they just take last year's number and multiply it by 1.07 or some factor. Just thought as you feel -- and just hearing are you seeing the plan is more resilient thoughts of not giving annual guidance further than just two years. You give us '25, you give us '26. We've seen some companies that feel really good about that plan. You've been giving us an annual guidance north of the two years, any thoughts of doing that to give the Street more transparency of the earnings power, given it may not be linear?

好的。然後只需快速跟進一次。我認為，對於羅斯的問題，您談到，如果投資者只是將去年的數字乘以 1.07 或某個因子，他們可能會錯過公司的部分盈利能力。只是想，正如您所感受的那樣——並且只是聽到您所看到的，該計劃是更具彈性的想法，不會提供超過兩年的年度指導。你給我們 25，你給我們 26。我們看到一些公司對該計劃感到非常滿意。您已經為我們提供兩年以上的年度指導，考慮到盈利能力可能不是線性的，您是否考慮這樣做，以便讓華爾街更加透明地了解盈利能力？

Yeah, you make a great point because it certainly has not been historically linear for our company, and I think this has been a misunderstanding from time to time. If you go back to the middle part of last decade, we gave out years one and two, and we gave a fifth year earnings guidance. I wish I had given a fifth year earnings guidance for this call because I think people would be a lot happier by the way. We haven't done that.

是的，你說得很好，因為從歷史上看，我們公司的發展歷程並不是直線性的，我認為這有時是一種誤解。如果回顧上個十年中期，我們給出了第一年、第二年以及第五年的獲利預測。我希望我在這次電話會議上給出第五年的獲利預測，因為我認為人們會更高興。我們還沒有這麼做。

But I would say that started doing in 2022, Anthony, was given years one and two. And I think we understand that we can deliver those with some level of confidence today, and we're going to try to beat those. And then we've raised our long-term EPS guidance range. We think about that as a number beyond the planning period, but I've indicated that we're quite confident that we can deliver at or above that range in the planning period.

但我想說，從 2022 年開始，安東尼就獲得了第一年和第二年的合約。我認為我們明白，今天我們可以有一定信心實現這些目標，而且我們會努力超越這些目標。然後我們提高了長期每股盈餘指引範圍。我們認為這是一個超出規劃期的數字，但我表示，我們非常有信心能夠在規劃期間達到或超過這個範圍。

So you're raising a good point. I think the key issue is to make sure that there's not asymmetry of knowledge between what we have in our plan and how we illustrate it or make it transparent to Wall Street. I think we've got some more work to be done in that area. So we're certainly open-minded about other ideas to increase that transparency.

所以你提出的觀點很正確。我認為關鍵問題是確保我們的計劃內容和我們如何向華爾街闡明或透明化計劃之間不存在知識不對稱。我認為我們在該領域還有很多工作要做。因此，我們當然對提高透明度的其他想法持開放態度。

Great, thanks for taking my questions.

太好了，謝謝你回答我的問題。

Hey, thank you.

嘿，謝謝你。

Paul Fremont, Ladenburg Thalmann.

保羅‧弗里蒙特、拉登堡‧塔爾曼。

Great. I guess my first question is really a follow-up to Carly's question. In terms of cost of capital, are you assuming that there is no significant change in the ROE assumption that comes out of the cost of capital this year?

偉大的。我想我的第一個問題其實是對卡莉問題的後續。就資本成本而言，您是否假設今年由資本成本得出的 ROE 假設不會發生重大變化？

Yeah. I would say that we've got an existing cost of capital for both businesses. I think in the plan today, we think it's substantially similar to that, but I think there's an opportunity to exceed the planned expectations.

是的。我想說的是，我們兩家公司都有現有的資本成本。我認為在今天的計劃中，我們認為它與此基本相似，但我認為有機會超出計劃的預期。

Great. And then also following up on sort of David Arcaro’s question on California legislation. If there was no replenishment of the fund, is there an alternative that you see coming out of the legislature rather than topping up the fund back to the $21 billion?

偉大的。然後也跟進了 David Arcaro 關於加州立法的問題。如果沒有補充該基金，您認為立法機構會採取什麼其他措施，而不是將基金增加至 210 億美元？

Yeah. This is a great question. And obviously, this has been on the minds of a lot of people up and down the state and a lot of people who are investors in the state. And what I can't do is I really can't forecast the outcome. I can basically say this, the mechanism that's in place today has worked well. So I know there's a lot of ideas today about, for example, extending the DWR bonds, which would make that an in-perpetuity fund, so it go well above $21 billion. That's one of the ideas that's been floated around.

是的。這是一個很好的問題。顯然，全國各地的許多人以及許多在該州投資的人們都在考慮這個問題。而我無法做到的是，我真的無法預測結果。我基本上可以這麼說，目前實施的機制運作良好。所以我知道今天有很多想法，例如延長 DWR 債券，這將使其成為永久性基金，因此其金額將遠遠超過 210 億美元。這是人們提出的想法之一。

Another idea being floated is allowing for greater participation from other utilities in the state, specifically the large municipal utilities. There's been discussions around allowing each utility to have their own separate or segregated wildfire fund.

另一個正在提出的想法是允許該州其他公用事業公司，特別是大型市政公用事業公司更多地參與。一直有討論允許每個公用事業公司擁有自己單獨或隔離的野火基金。

From our standpoint, it goes back to a couple of things. Number one, you got to remember, this is a societal issue in California, right? Wildfires are rarely started by utilities. Lots of people are impacted. And I think there's a lot of focus on making sure this gets solved. I know, for example, that Guggenheim is back in as a consultant with the Governor's office. Guggenheim was also a consultant back in 2019 for AB 1054.

從我們的角度來看，這可以追溯到幾件事。首先，你必須記住，這是加州的一個社會問題，對吧？野火很少是由公用事業引發的。很多人都受到了影響。我認為我們需要專注於如何解決這個問題。例如，我知道古根漢已重返州長辦公室擔任顧問。古根漢也於 2019 年擔任 AB 1054 的顧問。

So look, I think the right people are joined on the issue. And from our standpoint, because we had such little contributions to the fund and a relatively low liability cap, even if we were imprudent, we think the fund makes a lot of sense. Anything we can do as a state to strengthen the fund and ensure there's not issues or concerns like the ones you're addressing would be very, very helpful.

所以，我認為合適的人已經同意討論這個問題了。從我們的角度來看，由於我們對該基金的貢獻很少，而且責任上限相對較低，即使我們不謹慎，我們也認為該基金非常有意義。作為一個州，我們可以採取任何措施來加強基金並確保不會出現您所討論的問題或擔憂，這將是非常有幫助的。

But we feel good about, number one, making sure we run a safe business. That will always be our day-to-day focus, and we'll obviously be at the table in Sacramento to support legislation that strengthens either the current mechanism or some form of replacement is better than what we currently have.

但我們感到高興的是，首先，我們確保業務經營安全。這將永遠是我們日常關注的重點，我們顯然將在薩克拉門托會議上支持加強現有機製或某種替代形式的立法，以比我們現有的機制更好。

And then another California utility sort of implied that it might not happen this legislative session that it might take two years for the legislature to put something new in place. Is that timing consistent with your thoughts?

然後，另一家加州公用事業公司暗示，這可能不會在本屆立法會議上發生，立法機構可能需要兩年時間才能製定新的措施。這個時間點和你的想法一致嗎？

Look, I've said it a couple of times now. I'm not prepared to forecast an outcome. I'm prepared to say that a lot of people are working on it right now. So I think an answer from our legislative body sooner rather than later would be helpful. I feel good about the current framework of AB 1054. So any activity that strengthens Wall Street's confidence that you can earn an appropriate return in California is a positive.

瞧，我已經說過好幾次了。我還沒準備好預測結果。我可以說現在很多人都在致力於這件事。因此我認為我們的立法機構儘早給出答覆將會很有幫助。我對 AB 1054 的當前框架感到滿意。因此，任何能夠增強華爾街對你能夠在加州獲得適當回報的信心的活動都是正面的。

And guess what? It also allows our rate payers to have lower cost. So this issue of taking risk away from the business, making sure we have the appropriate returns and the appropriate equity layers, that's very, very important in terms of how we access capital, and it allows the ratepayers to be exposed to less cost.

你猜怎麼著？這也使得我們的納稅人的成本更低。因此，消除企業風險、確保我們獲得適當的回報和適當的股權層級，這對於我們如何獲得資本非常非常重要，並且它可以讓納稅人承擔更低的成本。

And then when I look at your '26 sort of guidance numbers, it looks like the benefit at Oncor is mostly eaten up or completely eaten up by losses or additional loss at the parent. Can you -- is that because of the timing of the Oncor rate case? Or what's happening there?

然後，當我查看您的 26 類指導數字時，似乎 Oncor 的收益大部分或完全被母公司的損失或額外損失所吞噬。你能——這是因為 Oncor 利率案件的時機嗎？或是那裡發生了什麼事？

Yeah. Would you mind repeating that question again?

是的。您介意再重複一次這個問題嗎？

Sure. It looks in '26 as if the improvement at Sempra Texas is more than offset by additional losses at the parent.

當然。看起來，在 26 年，Sempra Texas 的改善似乎被母公司的額外損失所抵消。

Well, I would say there's a lot of different things that go into the parent cost structure right? Obviously, it has to do with how we're financing the business, whether we're using hybrids, we're using traditional financing mechanisms, whether we're doing equity. I would not associate those two together.

嗯，我想說有很多不同的因素會影響母公司的成本結構，對嗎？顯然，這與我們如何為企業融資有關，無論我們是否使用混合融資、傳統融資機制，還是進行股權融資。我不會將這兩者連結在一起。

I think what we're trying to do is we're going to provide greater earnings power from all three business segments across the five-year plan. And I think Karen's job and Glen's job as the treasurer is to make sure we're financing it in the most efficient way possible. If we can beat those 2026 numbers, I can assure you, we're going to try to do that.

我認為我們正在努力做的是，在整個五年計劃中，從所有三個業務部門提供更強大的盈利能力。我認為凱倫和格倫作為財務主管的職責是確保我們以最有效的方式為其提供資金。如果我們能夠超越 2026 年的目標，我可以向你保證，我們會努力做到這一點。

Thank you. And that concludes today's question-and-answer session. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference back to Jeff Martin for any additional closing remarks.

謝謝。今天的問答環節到此結束。現在，我想將會議交還給傑夫·馬丁，請他做最後的補充發言。

No, I would just say that we're pleased that people could join us on the call. I know there's been a lot of changes in terms of how people are thinking about our business. I appreciate the fact that there are some competing calls today as well. We appreciate everyone joining us.

不，我只是想說我們很高興大家能夠加入我們的電話會議。我知道人們對我們業務的看法已經發生了很大變化。我很欣賞今天也有一些競爭性的呼籲。我們感謝大家的參與。

I want to mention that our executive team is attending multiple investor conferences in New York next week. I think that's a real opportunity to meet with Oncor and our senior team. We hope to see many of you there.

我想提一下，我們的執行團隊下週將參加在紐約舉行的多場投資者會議。我認為這是一個與 Oncor 和我們的高級團隊會面的真正機會。我們希望在那裡見到你們。

Per custom, if there are any follow-up items, please reach out to our IR team with your questions. Thank you again, and this concludes our call.

按照慣例，如果有任何後續事項，請聯絡我們的 IR 團隊並提出您的問題。再次感謝您，我們的通話到此結束。

Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.

感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。祝大家有美好的一天。