Sequans Communications SA (SQNS) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the fourth quarter and full year Swan's earnings conference call for 2025. My name is Shannon. I'll be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to David Hanover, Investor relations. David, you may begin.

Thank you, operator, and thank you to everyone participating in today's call. Joining me on the call from Sequans Communications are Georges Karam, CEO and Chairman; and Deborah Choate, CFO. Before turning the call over to Georges, I would like to remind our participants of the following important information on behalf of Sequans.

First, Sequans issued an earnings press release this morning, and you'll find a copy of the release on the company's website at www.sequans.com under the Newsroom section. Second, this conference call contains projections and other forward-looking statements regarding future events or our future financial performance and other potential financing sources.

All statements other than present and historical facts and conditions contained in this release, including any statements regarding our business strategy, cost optimization plans, strategic options, the ability to enter into new strategic agreements, expectations for sales, our ability to convert our pipeline to revenue, and our objectives for future operations are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 as amended.

These statements are only predictions and reflect our current beliefs and expectations with respect to future events and are based on assumptions and subject to risks and uncertainties and subject to change at any time. We operate in a very competitive and rapidly changing environment. New risks emerge from time to time. Given these risks and uncertainties, you should not rely on or place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements.

Actual events or results may differ materially from those contained in the projections or forward-looking statements. More information on factors that could affect our business and financial results are included in our public filings made with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

And now I'd like to hand the call over to Georges Karam. Please go ahead, Georges.

Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to start with a brief update on our capital allocation framework and how we are balancing execution of our IoT semiconductor business with the management of our digital asset treasury, all in support of long-term shareholder value creation.

First and foremost, we remain focused on executing our IoT strategy and advancing our 5G product road map in a disciplined manner. Our objective is to unlock the full strategic value of the IoT business for our shareholders, and that remains our top operational priority.

At the same time, we continue to manage our Bitcoin digital asset treasury thoughtfully, with the goal of extracting the full value underlying our Bitcoin holdings and our treasury structure. Since launching our Bitcoin strategy, we have been deliberate in how we assess market conditions and the tools available to us, always with a focus on actions we believe can create per share value in an accretive way.

In the current environment where many digital asset treasury peers are trading below an [mNAV] of one, we believe the most value-accretive lever available to us has been repurchasing ADS when our share price implies a significant discount to our net cash and net digital asset value.

During the fourth quarter, we repurchased approximately 9.7% of the company's outstanding ADSs. In addition, our Board has approved a new ADS repurchase program authorizing the buyback of up to an additional 10% of the outstanding ADSs.

Overall, we are taking a balanced and disciplined approach to capital management. This includes rightsizing our operating expenses, continuing to invest in our most important R&D program, which is our 5G eRedCap chip and allocating capital to the treasury only when it's clearly accretive, while maintaining flexibility to evaluate our options as market conditions evolve.

To provide some context around our balance sheet, with Bitcoin holdings end of Q4, and Bitcoin currently at approximately $70,000, our Bitcoin NAV is about $150 million. After adding our end of Q4 cash balance and netting out convertible debt, our net cash equivalent position exceeds $68 million.

Importantly, beyond our Bitcoin and cash assets, the company's valuation should also reflect the significant value represented by our IoT revenue pipeline and our 5G and RF transceiver IP portfolio. We intend to remain patient and optimistic, staying disciplined and focused on actions that we believe can drive long-term per share value.

Turning now to the operational side of the business. Our IoT semiconductor business continues to build momentum. In the fourth quarter, it generated $7 million in revenue, which was in line with our prior expectations. Revenue in the quarter was predominantly product-based with more than 94% coming from product sales, and roughly 6% from services, reflecting strong incremental growth in the product shipments.

For the full year 2025, total revenue was approximately $27.2 million. This figure includes a meaningful amount of non-recurring Qualcomm-related revenue resulting from the deal we closed with them in 2024. On an adjusted basis, the underlying business was closer to $20 million, and our fourth quarter run rate clearly demonstrates the ramp we have been driving throughout the year.

Looking ahead to 2026, our internal plan currently targets approximately $40 million to $45 million of total global revenue, supported by improving visibility, and a significant order backlog. Our outlook is further supported by the strength of our design win pipeline, and the increasing percentage of projects now in production.

We are exiting 2025 with a revenue funnel exceeding $550 million in a potential three-year product revenue, including over $300 million from design win projects. Of those design wins, 44% have already reached production and are generating revenue, up from 38% end of Q3.

Assuming no changes to customer forecast, this represents approximately $132 million of potential three-year revenue from production stage projects alone. During the fourth quarter, we added nine new customer projects to our design win pipeline and three existing projects transitioned into production. We expect this momentum to continue through 2026 with the target of having over 50% of our current design win projects in production by the end of June.

Our product pipeline continues to be driven primarily by our 4G Cat-M and Cat 1bis technologies, as well as our RF transceiver product, which supports a wide range of software-defined radio applications. We are also seeing early engagements around 5G eRedCap, which we view as the successor to 4G in IoT deployments.

Smart metering, telematics and asset tracking remain our strongest verticals, followed by security, e-health and medical, and other industrial applications. From a product family perspective, Cat-M remains a meaningful growth driver in 2026, led by asset tracking and smart metering deployments, including expanded program now entering production with customers such as Honeywell and Itron.

Cat 1bis is positioned for a breakout year in 2026, supported by multiple customer ramps in telematics and security. In RF transceivers, we have committed backlog in place with additional demand expected in the second half of the year. We also expect to begin seeing meaningful revenue from our 5G licensee partner in China.

Demand for 5G eRedCap continues to strengthen. Mobile network operators in the U.S. are accelerating the transition from 4G to 5G to refarm spectrum, and IoT applications remain the final bottleneck in completing that transition. This is why having a 5G eRedCap solution as early as possible is critical.

We continue to make strong progress on this program and expect to receive our first test chips this quarter with customer sampling beginning in mid-2027. Our IP licensing and services business is now fully integrated into our go-to-market strategy and represent attractive high-margin upside in 2026.

We are currently engaged in discussions with multiple potential partners with individual opportunities, ranging from approximately $2 million to $10 million or more, depending on scope. Beyond revenue, these opportunities expand our reach into new markets and regions.

On the supply chain side, we continue to operate in a dynamic environment. While not indicative of demand, these factors can influence shipment timing, and costs quarter-to-quarter. We are addressing substrate constraint by adding suppliers to reduce single-source exposure and improve resiliency. We are also seeing memory pricing, and capacity pressures, which affect both our product and our customers' devices.

We are working to pass through these cost increases where appropriate while maintaining strong customer relationships. Also, we are coordinating closely with customers on ordering and delivery schedules. At this stage, we expect little to no impact on our business in the first half of 2026, and limited impact in the second half.

Looking ahead, we are focused on reducing cash burn over the course of the year, with the objective of reaching a breakeven run rate by Q4. We are taking a disciplined approach to operating expenses, rightsizing where appropriate while protecting the innovation that underpins our differentiated position.

Working capital dynamics may create short-term cash flow variability, but these effects are tied directly to long-term growth. Overall, the fourth quarter underscores our progress in strengthening the core IoT business, improving financial discipline, and maintaining flexibility in our capital strategy as we position the company for sustained growth in 2026 and beyond.

For Q1 2026, we currently expect revenue to be around $6.5 million, reflecting normal seasonality with the risk that approximately $1 million of revenue could shift into Q2 due to manufacturing and shipment timing planned for the end of Q1. Based on our backlog and design win pipeline, we expect revenue to ramp through the remainder of the year and continue to believe we can approach cash flow breakeven in Q4.

We continue to evaluate strategic alternatives that could accelerate profitability and unlock additional value across both the IoT business, and our treasury strategy. The Board is actively reviewing options, and we remain committed to unlocking shareholder value without rushing decisions, particularly at a time when the company is in its strongest position today.

I will now turn the call over to Deborah to review our fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results in a greater detail. Deborah?

Thank you, Georges, and hello, everyone. I'll begin by reviewing our fourth quarter financial results and then discuss our Bitcoin holdings. During the fourth quarter, we experienced several significant events that impacted our financial statements. These included a substantial increase in product revenues, a reduction in operating expenses, the early redemption of half of the convertible debt issued in July 2025, the launch of our ADS buyback program and the sale of Bitcoin to finance these two non-operating initiatives.

In Q4 2025, revenues increased 72.6% sequentially, driven primarily by growth in product revenue. Gross margin for the quarter was 37.7% and was impacted by provisions for slow-moving inventory. Excluding these provisions, gross margin would have been approximately 43% compared to 42.4% in the prior quarter.

R&D and SG&A expenses declined to a combined total of $11.5 million in Q4, down from $13.6 million in the third quarter. We maintain our goal of continuing to reduce operating expenses over the course of 2026 in order to support our breakeven goals for operating results and cash burn.

We recorded a noncash impairment charge of $56.9 million related to the mark-to-market value of our Bitcoin holdings in the fourth quarter compared to an $8.2 million charge in Q3. We also recorded an $8.4 million net realized loss on the sale of Bitcoin. This sale funded the redemption of half of the convertible debt and the repurchase of 9.7% of our ADS.

The July issuance of convertible debt and warrants resulted in the recognition of an embedded derivative, which is remeasured at each reporting period. Changes in its value affect our P&L but are entirely noncash. Similarly, while the convertible debt carries a 0% coupon in the first year, IFRS accounting requires us to recognize significant noncash interest expense.

At the end of October, we redeemed half of the outstanding convertible debt ahead of its normal July 2028 maturity. This resulted in a $29.1 million loss on early redemption of debt that was primarily noncash. Reflecting these factors, we reported an IFRS net loss of $87.1 million in Q4 compared with an IFRS net profit of $900,000 in the prior quarter.

On a non-IFRS basis, excluding significant noncash items, we reported a non-IFRS net loss of $18.5 million or $1.19 per ADS compared with a non-IFRS net loss of $11.3 million or $0.81 per ADS in Q3. The realized loss on sale of Bitcoin of $8.4 million is included in the non-IFRS net loss. So we would have been just over $10 million in non-IFRS net loss without this element.

Normalized operating cash burn in Q4, including primary working capital movements in inventory and trade payables and receivables was approximately $7.7 million. After completing Bitcoin purchases totaling $3.4 million early in the quarter, we later sold Bitcoin to fund $101 million of debt redemption, and a $9.4 million ADS buyback -- sorry, $9.4 million ADS buyback.

At year-end 2025, we held 2,139 Bitcoin with a market value of $187.1 million. Of this, 1,617 Bitcoin valued then at $141.5 million were pledged as collateral for the remaining $94.5 million of convertible debt due in July 2028. The remaining 522 Bitcoin valued at year-end at $45.6 million are unencumbered.

And with that, I'll turn it back over to Georges.

As we close, I want to reiterate that our primary focus remains on executing the IoT business. The fourth quarter reflected continued momentum with revenue predominantly driven by product shipments. We are encouraged by the depth and quality of our design win pipeline with more than 44% of projects now in mass production and additional ramps expected throughout the year.

With solid demand across Cat-M, Cat 1bis, RF transceivers and early engagement around 5G eRedCap, we believe the IoT business is positioned to continue scaling while our cost discipline supports a clear path toward cash flow breakeven by the end of 2026.

At the same time, we have taken a disciplined and value-driven approach to capital allocation. During the fourth quarter, we took actions to repurchase shares where we believe our valuation did not reflect underlying asset value, and we continue to have Board authorization in place to pursue additional repurchases as appropriate. These actions reflect our focus on unlocking value on a per share basis while maintaining flexibility to evaluate additional capital allocation options as market condition evolves.

With that, let's now begin with the Q&A session. Operator, if you don't mind.

(Operator Instructions)

Scott Searle, Roth.

Hey, good morning, good afternoon. Thanks for all the detail on the call related to some of the product development activity ongoing. Georges, just to quickly dive in on the guidance. I'm wondering how you're thinking about licensing in terms of that $40 million to $45 million figure.

And I'm wondering if you could reiterate again what you expect the percentage of design wins to be in production at that point in time. I missed that number. And it looks like just to add a quick first cut, $15 million, $16 million exiting the year is kind of what gets you to cash flow breakeven? And then I had a couple of follow-ups.

Yeah. Hi, Scott. Thanks for being on the call and so, just to start with the one on the guidance, I believe you're reflecting about the guidance for the year. We continue, as you see, like Q4 was, as I said, mainly product. I believe Q1 is going to be very close as well on our guidance.

We are not expecting except surprises, I would say, because we have many deals and depends which one will close. We have really currently in the backlog, I should say, maybe a couple of million dollars over the year, if you want, of secured licensing. However, we have, as I said, four, five and more, each one ranging between $2 million and $10 million.

So it's very, very hard to make a projection, if you want, on the numbers. So we're taking a very conservative approach, assuming like maybe we'll get another $5 million of all this in the year, $5 million to $6 million, that could be secured and bring like technically $2 million to $3 million per quarter in the remainder of the year, if you want, after Q1, Q2, Q3 and so on.

So this is a little bit our guidance. So the number I gave in terms of production for the year, in percentage, this means we will have like 85% or so -- 80% to 85% product and only 15% services on this basis, 20% services, something like this.

And then the other question was regarding the conversions of the percentage of product? So what -- we're exiting the year. You need to keep in mind; we're giving those percentage. But as you know, each quarter, our design win is increasing. So we're not updating the metric on a quarterly basis.

Just for convenience, we will be updating this like every six months to avoid every quarter having sometimes to explain some, the variation maybe not linear and so on. But we are very comfortable that the design win pipeline, the $300 million is today above $300 million, and we'll continue growing towards the year.

And on those $300 million, our estimation, at least 50% of them will be in production in June, in June this year. So obviously, if you project year-end, you need to add, I could say, maybe 75% towards the year-end. There is no guidance on this. But for midyear, it's like more than 50% for sure.

Got you. Very helpful. And George, just in terms of the breakeven then in terms of where you guys are reducing OpEx, it sounds like it's in the mid- to high teens and would be the exit rate trajectory?

Yeah. I remain on the number, which is essentially, honestly, the mix of services and product can give you a different number. Obviously, you understand for the margin. In our model, we're assuming like the $15 million, $16 million number where $3 million of this is services, if you will, and the remaining product.

Gotcha. And if I could follow-up on the transceiver front, it seems like it's one of the hidden gems in the business. I think in the past you've talked about that maybe being north of $5 million on an annual basis. I'm wondering what the current thoughts are, design activity, and how that momentum is looking into the back half of '26 and into '27. How big could that opportunity be?

Well, we have, as you know, the acquisition of ACP give us exactly directly a couple of customers to whom today, they move into production, and we are generating revenue from them every quarter. So we have even a backlog in 2026 from them for the first half. So we'll see. Sometimes, the forecast for the full year with Chinese customer could be a little bit -- I don't want to give guidance on this.

But we believe like we could be doing this year, maybe in the RF business like $7 million or so. I mean, in any case more, in the north of $5 million for sure. And this can be getting up if some upside, then we'll go beyond the $7 million. So this is how we see it. And also, this -- the RF technology, we launched this with many customers, new customers.

To those new customers, we are sampling now RD board and sampling chips and they are designing product. And we have really a few Tier 1 already working on this. It's more, to be honest, us being able to support them and help them, this is what we are working on this.

But I don't expect big revenue in '26 from them because they are all in the application like drone, defense, and it takes time to build those products and come to market. But this could be meaningful. This could be a business for sure, maybe in the $15 million, $20 million run rate.

This is doable. If we are successful, we're keeping the Chinese customer and add those customers that we can get for defense and public safety application and other software-defined radio application.

Got you. And lastly, if I could, Georges, you had some comments on the memory side of the business. It sounds like indirectly, you guys are managing that well and you're not seeing too much in terms of headwinds from your end customers. I'm wondering if you could provide some expanded thoughts on that.

And then just the competitive landscape. You guys certainly have a strong position with Cat 1bis. It seems like I don't know if running the table is the right expression, but you guys are certainly winning a lot of business on that front and gaining some momentum.

And so I just wonder if you could comment on the competitive landscape for Cat 1bis. And then, as it relates to eRedCap, which will be the next big cycle in '27 and beyond, kind of what you're seeing from a competitive aspect? Thanks.

Okay. On the supply chain, just to be clear, the industry is completely today -- I mean, it's not like the direct memory of Sequans. It's not our technology because, as you know, our technology is not in AI, but AI and geopolitics as well, combined with geopolitics is obviously, the demand on AI is eating most of the capacity.

And obviously, the OSAT and all the packaging material, and all this increasing price or making constraints on supply, increasing lead time and so on. We struggle on the substrate. We continue to watch this very closely. We managed to secure at least our Q3 production. We're in good shape on this. But despite this, we're working on multiple sources, but we are seeing price increase, unfortunately.

And just only, that's how it is. On the memory, again, we're not using the memory that you need in AI, but that's how it is. All this business is connected, right? I mean so, if the AI, big memory, the prices are getting up because there is demand, this is impacting as well smaller memory and flash, RAM and flash that we use next to our chip, if you want, our module and so on.

So we have direct impact on this as well in supply and the pricing, unfortunately. And we are working all out the price and secure the capacity with multiple partners. We have double source on the memory as well to be sure that we have the supply.

But unfortunately, I believe we're going to have the cost increase is happening, and we are reflecting this to our customer. We are already discussing with our customer the impact and trying to pass those (technical difficulty). I believe we'll see more of this impact in our number in the second half of the year. The first half, we have some backlog and so on.

At least Q1, we have backlog for this on all the pricing and we're not -- it's very hard to change the price when you are shipping at the same time with customers. So, it's something to watch. And as well, customers and the customer, they could be building devices where they are using big CPU and memory. Not in all the application, but in some applications, they need this.

And obviously, they could face shortage or challenge on the memory. They need to get for their own device. So, there is tension in the market. I don't qualify it like in the COVID days, but it's there. We're spending time on it. My team is working day and night on securing supply, talking with the customers and so on to be sure that we can pass the '26 and '27 in good shape because it seems like this will continue until 2028.

That's what I'm hearing. Now talking about the competitive landscape and the product, indeed, on Cat 1bis, the two guys that they have Cat 1bis, it's not Chinese, it's Qualcomm and Sequans. So it's really duopoly market. And most of our design win are around Cat 1bis, I would say. It's not like Cat-M, we're not doing anything anymore. We still have Cat-M business.

But I believe we have a big piece of the pipeline driven by the Cat 1bis because obviously, it's a new product ramping and because also on the competitive landscape limitation. And obviously, the customers have the choice between using Sequans technology or Sequans technology, just only whether they buy it from us or from Qualcomm.

That's how it is because it's the same technology behind it, which is a good position to us, I would say, to push this technology further. And on eRedCap, I was at CES and there is really a big movement, and I will have MWC in a couple of weeks. meeting with the carriers, AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile.

All of them, they are really eager to get the 4G frequency band and move them to the 5G. In other words, they need and they have the obligation to get those frequency. And as you know, the existing 5G network can offer any category for the IoT.

The IoT remains on the 4G. And the broadband and the phones, they are moving to 5G. So it's easy on this side. The IoT is more complicated mainly because there is also a commitment for 10 years with business metering and so on. So it's really becoming a very, very hot topic.

A lot of discussion at CES were around this, where the carrier would like to see the ecosystem moving faster because as soon as they have eRedCap, as soon as they can transition the new devices to eRedCap technology, even if it's falling back to 4G, so you'll have 5G falling back to 4G, but at least the technology will be -- or the product will be future-proof.

And this gives the freedom to the carrier to switch off the 4G sooner or at least on time as they plan it and not to drag this longer and they can recover the frequency to put them on the 5G. And here, again, we are -- I believe we are in a leading position from it's very early. I don't want to -- it's very hard to talk about it when the customer didn't announce product yet.

But we started the 5G, as you know, many years before, working on the broadband. We licensed the 5G to a partner. So we have a lot of those pieces of the puzzle already in hand. When we kicked off our eRedCap chip last year, we used a lot of this. And here we go after one year of the work, we have this chip coming to the company this quarter -- end of this quarter.

And from there, we start the testing and continue the development. And we believe we'll be ready for what we call it the IUDT testing with the infrastructure vendor around beginning of 2027, and we'll be sampling to customer midyear or, let's say, the second half of 2027. This is our timeline, and we're executing on this, and we are getting a lot of push to accelerate this. Carriers would like us even to do it faster, if you want.

And I believe we are in a leading position with this timeline.

Great. Thanks so much. I'll get back in the queue.

Mike Grundall, Northland.

Yeah. Thank you. George, with 44% of those design wins in mass production, could you talk a little bit about the breadth of customers and just sort of like average order size?

Yeah. Hi Mike. Mike, essentially those 44%, in other words, as I said, this is like more than $130 million or three years' revenue. So obviously, if you divide by three, it gives you a little bit where we stand, above $40 million in linear. It's ramping year one, year two, year three for the new projects. For all the projects, they are there in their second year, like, for example, the tracking business is moving very well.

We have customers that range like buying -- again, if I take Cat-M in the million units, 400,000 unit, 300,000 unit, the space, we are really in good shape where we have matured the product shipping, few metering finally entering into production with Honeywell and Itron and a lot in the tracking device.

Tracking, we have many customers. We have some of them, as I said, they do 1 million units a year and more than 1 million units a year. And others, they do 200,000. So it's really a variety of order there. But when you sum them all up, Mike, to get the order of magnitude, it's not like -- first of all, it's many projects.

I mean I don't have the number in mind, but I don't want to give you a wrong number, but it's more than 30 for sure projects. So it's diversified on many applications, as I said, already all the segments we are talking about. Some of them are in Cat-M, some of them are in Cat 1. And we have Tier 1 customers.

And we have some small customers, but not too small. I mean, small in a sense (technical difficulty) they ship, they work well, they do 50,000 units per quarter and they are there buying every quarter and moving on.

Got it. In terms of your breakeven cash goal by 4Q, is -- do you expect a lot of progress on the $11.5 million you got to for R&D and SG&A combined?

Yeah. I mean, we continue driving this down, we put the guide, on the OpEx point of view, we'll be a little bit, we believe in the second half of the year around $10.5 million. That's our target. Obviously, this includes depreciation, so. So you need to take off the depreciation when we're talking about cash flow, break even, we're counting on a cash basis if you want.

So we'll be, somehow we have like in this ten and a half, maybe around $1.5 million depreciation. So the company will be like using like $9 million if we speak in cash, I would say per quarter and obviously, if you add like $3 million in service, this gives you like, $6 million left because service will be 100% margin, more or less, I mean very close to $100.

So then you will -- the product revenue needs to cover like the $6 million. And if you have a gross margin around on the product 45%, you can do it with $13 million. So it gives you a little bit the number where we are.

Obviously, this can vary because the mix can change. We can have a gross margin. Higher or a little bit lower and obviously the services could be higher and then we can accelerate the break even or the product could be higher than this number as well.

Got it. And then just lastly, it sounds like the progress on 5G, the eRedCap chip is going well. Revenue, do you still sort of have that penciled in mid-'28? What -- any updated thoughts on there?

Yeah. I believe, honestly, the -- yes, I mean, the revenue is mid-'28. Why? Because you need to think about how it's going to work, Mike. Ericsson and all the infrastructure vendor, they are building their software release to support eRedCap and bring it to the network. Without giving too much detail, but this is targeted, I would say, to be in the network towards end of this year, beginning of next year in testing.

Then the carrier will deploy it. And then from there, you do -- when they are ready, we can test end-to-end, right? I mean, in other words, even if I have it ready today, it doesn't matter. I need to have the infrastructure working. So we're synchronizing with Ericsson to come on time doing the testing, if you want soon.

Once we have the testing, we have the proof that the chip is working. From there, you can have your -- our first alpha customer engaging with us. And if you -- depending on what they are doing, if it's just only a replacement on existing product, this could be fast because it's not a new design. We will give them a module which is pin-to-pin compatible with the previous one, and it will be running in Cat-M or Cat 1bis plus 5G.

So they can go fast and in 2028 can introduce product. If you have other customers where they are building completely new product that takes two years or two and a half years to develop and they start with 5G, obviously, you don't see the revenue in '28, you see it in '29. But more or less, the way we are seeing the push to have the customer adopting 5G faster, we feel good about seeing revenue in 2028 from us.

Thank you.

Fedor Shabalin, B. Riley.

Thank you very much, operator and good morning, good afternoon, everyone. Georges and Deborah, thanks for detailed review of the quarter. You already talked about near-term guidance, but I wanted to touch a little bit for maybe midterm on 2027.

How should we think about the revenue cadence heading into 2027, specifically the pace at which the remaining 60% of the pipeline converts to production revenue and whether the combination of maturing LTE and Cat 1bis programs alongside early 5G engagements position the company to meaningfully inflect beyond the cash flow breakeven milestone that is targeted for the end of 2026?

Yeah, David. Yeah. You're absolutely right. I mean the pipeline is there. And when you talk about those design win converting, they are there, right? I mean when they convert, they bring revenue and they stay there. They don't disappear over one year or two years.

This is really a long-term business when we talk about metering, tracking. I mean there is no project in the company that doesn't live five years, if you want. And some of them, they live 10 years, seven years, eight years, all those metering segment.

So whatever we are winning will continue to be there. And the pipeline continue converting and bring revenue. So just only if we take what we have in hand, and if you talk about, we have 44%, let's round it, I would say. So this means we still have the other half. So by definition, we can double.

That's how it is. The growth is big, right? I mean if you assume all this, just only convert and they will be -- we don't lose anything, lose not the customer will go to someone else, but like you could have, I would say, some accidents, some customers planning for some big forecast and they do less and so on.

But it's diversified pipeline that gives me confidence that our business will continue growing. Not to give a guidance of saying it's going to be -- I mean, the doubling is not -- it's built in the model. Obviously, you could argue how this can be developing every quarter and we will continue growing, and maybe we'll be in the 60%, 60% plus growth. That's at least what I see in '27, that will continue to '28.

And in '28, where we have really -- I believe really the eRedCap, if we execute well, you need to imagine that the eRedCap, 5G, it's over. There is no Chinese at all completely. You have only a couple of players that they can bring this to the market. And this gives us an opportunity to increase our market share as well because we have now an established customer base. We are not going to win a new customer with the 5G.

We're going to go to the same customer and support them with the new product line and expand our market share with the new customer. So I'm very -- I believe as well that the 5G will be a great catalyst in 2028 to add another growth driver to our revenue year-over-year.

Thank you, this is very helpful. This is very helpful. And my follow-up is about buybacks. So with the stock trading at where it is trading now and given the authorization to repurchase an additional 10% of outstanding ADSs, can you provide color on the expected pace and cadence of buybacks in Q1, specifically Q1 2026.

I mean -- specifically whether the current share price level has accelerated repurchase activity quarter-to-date and how you balance the urgency of buying back stock at these levels against preserving liquidity? Thank you.

No. Obviously, Fedor, I mean, we have the authorization. We are free on doing this. Obviously, we were -- when we are in the window, which is locked, we cannot do it. We can do it when the window is open. And essentially, we're assessing really this versus -- because you need to assess two things.

You need to assess what's happening as well on the Bitcoin, the Bitcoin price, and the value of the share versus the net cash. So the two together are going to drive our -- I would say, the pace. But if you want, the intention there is clear. We believe if our share price is not appreciated, it's good things to do to buy back shares and I would say, reduce the number of shares outstanding.

So it's like giving cash, giving money to all our shareholders sticking with us. So the decision is there. We'll be executing on it. I'm not going to tell you if in Q1, we'll buy all the 10% or only 3% or 5% because it depends really on many dynamics that I'm observing now with the Bitcoin price and so on. So we need to watch this carefully and make decision based on this as well.

Thank you very much, George. I appreciate the call and continue. Best of luck.

Thank you.

(Operator Instructions)

Jacob Stefan, Lake Street Capital Markets.

Hey guys. I appreciate you taking the questions. Maybe since a lot of questions have been asked, maybe help me unpack Q1 guidance a little bit. I know you said $6.5 million. It sounds like some of that could shift, but without affecting the balance of the year. I guess what portion of that is subject to shifting later into the year? And maybe just help us walk through that.

Yeah, I mean, Jacob. Hi, and essentially, it happens like, again, going to the condition of the market, even on TSMC, even on the wafer side, that is, we have the capacity, it's all fine, but it's really stretching timing, it's like you're pulling in stuff, getting this, accelerating.

Even a week, it's a little bit complicated, that the fab are loaded and technically what I'm saying is that we have order, right? I mean we have orders covering Q1 and Q2 and we have backlog even covering Q3 and Q4 some of. Our backlog and in our guidance, some of those orders we should be able to ship them in Q1, but they are really on the edge of Q1 and as I'm speaking, some of those dates are not 100% confirmed.

You see the work in progress, so in theory they are there, but you're not at risk. You are at risk of having slippage of a few days, we're not talking about, it could be really a week. And unfortunately, I have a few order, decent order happening there, and if they don't come in the quarter, they shift to Q2, but they're not last. It's just only, this will beef up if you want my guidance.

I mean you should, you should some Q1 and Q2 to look to the performance I will say on the company. So this is where we are. So just to be cautious on this, if I do the math today, I believe we should manage it. The guidance I give the six and a half, but there's a little bit of risk, so I.

Okay. Very helpful. And then maybe touch on the price increases a little bit. For your customers, how susceptible -- I guess, how receptive have they been to overall price increases?

Well, to be honest, surprisingly, I should say the customer, I don't know how much, no one is receptive for the price increase in general, but I like it this time that the industry learned what happened in the COVID, and the customers are reacting positively if you want, around what's going on.

In other words, they appreciate that you go and tell them that we have, we could have supply problem, we could have price problem and sit down with the customers and talk about the issues and so on. Everyone is taking for granted the memory. The memory is really, everyone knows and clear, because the memory, by the way, people are always prepared of the memory.

It gets up and down all the time. So when you tell them it's up, they read it in the news, they read it everywhere. When you go to the material, the costs of the gold, even if it's everything is clear, right? I mean when you give the number.

So, it's a little bit more challenging, but that's okay, I mean I don't call it like, we're managing this customer by customer, we have sometimes obligation we have, and but it's the reception is positive, it's not like. No way, because at the end of the day, that is, it's not the choice of sequence, right? I mean, we're not trying to abuse the system.

We're trying just only to be transparent with our customer and secure supply, and this forces us somehow to pay a little bit more because that's how it is the industry in Asia today. If you take, for example, all the geo politic push many guys outside of China, so you have less competition in the packaging from China.

So everything is happening outside of China between Taiwan mainly, but you have others obviously country around Taiwan. And now obviously, those guys, they have demand for to get more, to secure all they can take all their fab.

You have big customer willing to give them check in advance and so on. And at the same time, you have good reason that the material, as well, the packaging material is getting up. So all this combined is pushing the price of the packaging up, the substrate and the packaging as well.

TSMC is still okay, TSMC, they remain on. They didn't change anything. They are not giving signs that would do any change for now, at least for those geometry, which is the regular one, we use the flat, I would say 40, 22, and even the hyphen FA 1612, and so on.

Okay. And just last question for me. On the Bitcoin treasury strategy, obviously, 2026, the actual interest rate goes up materially on the convertible debt. I'm just wondering how you're kind of thinking about overall the debt repurchase or redemption?

Jacob, I mean, obviously, we're evaluating this specifically as well with the price of the Bitcoin. What I could say, we have good relationship with the main debt holder. And we -- as you saw in the past, we redeemed 50% of this. So we're considering all our options. Nothing yet decided today.

We're looking to the option. But if you ask me my view on this, like in general, the way we are seeing things, if Bitcoin is not rallying and going to the moon, there is no interest, I would say, to keep the debt forever, and better to redeem it sooner than later, if you want.

Like if you -- if I have to look to the picture today, there is not too much value creation to be done there. But we are factoring all this, obviously, and discussing with the Board based on all our options and what we should do and when.

Very helpful. I appreciate it.

Thank you, and I'm currently showing no further questions at this time. I would now like to hand the conference back over to George Karam for closing remarks.

Thank you very much all. Thanks for the questions and being on the call and happy to see you next opportunity or discuss with you on the next opportunity. Thank you very much. Thank you, operator.

You're welcome. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect and everyone have a great day.