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Operator
Operator
Greetings, and welcome to the Spire Global fourth-quarter and full year 2024 call. (Operator Instructions) And as a reminder, this conference is being recorded.
大家好,歡迎參加 Spire Global 2024 年第四季和全年電話會議。(操作員指示)提醒一下,本次會議正在錄音。
It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Ben Hackman, Head of Invest Relations. Thank you, Ben. You may begin.
現在我很高興介紹您的主持人,投資關係主管 Ben Hackman。謝謝你,本。你可以開始了。
Benjamin Hackman - Head - Investor Relations
Benjamin Hackman - Head - Investor Relations
Thank you. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining Spire's fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024 earnings conference call. Our earnings press release and related SEC filings are posted on the company's IR website at ir.spire.com. A replay of today's call will also be made available. With me on the call today is Theresa Condor, CEO; and Tom Krywe, Interim CFO.
謝謝。大家好,感謝您參加 Spire 第四季和 2024 財年財年財報電話會議。我們的收益新聞稿和相關的 SEC 文件已發佈在公司的 IR 網站 ir.spire.com 上。今天的電話會議重播也將提供。今天與我一起參加電話會議的是執行長 Theresa Condor;以及臨時財務長 Tom Krywe。
As a reminder, our commentary today will include non-GAAP items. Reconciliation between our GAAP and non-GAAP results, as well as our guidance, can be found in our earnings press release, which can be found on our IR website at ir.spore.com. Some of our comments today contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks, uncertainties, and assumptions. In particular, our expectations around our results of operations and financial condition are uncertain and subject to change. Should any of these expectations fail to materialize or should our assumptions prove to be incorrect, actual company results could differ materially from these forward-looking statements. A description of these risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and other factors that could affect our financial results is included in our SEC filings.
提醒一下,我們今天的評論將包括非 GAAP 項目。我們的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 結果之間的調整以及我們的指導可以在我們的收益新聞稿中找到,該新聞稿可以在我們的 IR 網站 ir.spore.com 上找到。我們今天的一些評論包含前瞻性陳述,這些陳述受風險、不確定性和假設的影響。特別是,我們對經營業績和財務狀況的預期是不確定的,而且可能會改變。如果這些預期中的任何一個未能實現或我們的假設被證明是錯誤的,那麼實際的公司表現可能與這些前瞻性陳述有重大差異。這些風險、不確定性和假設以及可能影響我們財務結果的其他因素的描述包含在我們的美國證券交易委員會文件中。
With that, let me hand the call over to Theresa.
說完這些,讓我把電話交給 Theresa。
Theresa Condor - Chief Executive Officer
Theresa Condor - Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Ben. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us today. As we close 2024 and shift our focus to the opportunities ahead in 2025, the demand for Spireâs products and technology solutions continues to be strong. The increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events, such as wildfires, droughts, floods, and hurricanes, amplifies the need for differentiated weather data and forecasts for our customers.
謝謝你,本。下午好,感謝您今天加入我們。隨著 2024 年即將結束,我們將重點轉向 2025 年的未來機遇,對 Spire 產品和技術解決方案的需求持續強勁。野火、乾旱、洪水和颶風等極端天氣事件發生的頻率和嚴重程度日益增加,增加了客戶對差異化天氣資料和預報的需求。
Growing concerns around GNSS spoofing and jamming, border security threats, dark ship activity and illicit satellite phone use are driving shifts in global security strategies, sparking significant interest from a variety of customers in the critical government intelligence sector.
人們對 GNSS 欺騙和乾擾、邊境安全威脅、黑船活動和非法衛星電話使用的擔憂日益加劇,推動著全球安全戰略的轉變,引發了關鍵政府情報部門各類客戶的濃厚興趣。
By focusing on solutions that address the challenges of severe weather and global security, while providing proven on orbit capabilities for companies and governments eager to participate in the rapidly expanding space economy, Spire is strategically positioned for growth.
透過專注於應對惡劣天氣和全球安全挑戰的解決方案,同時為渴望參與快速擴張的太空經濟的公司和政府提供經過驗證的在軌能力,Spire 在戰略上佔據了成長優勢。
In the weather and climate portion of our business, we expect further opportunities for government data purchases. There has been a decades-long shift away from in-house government programs to commercial services contracts, particularly with satellite communications, satellite imagery, and rocket launches.
在我們業務的天氣和氣候部分,我們預計政府數據購買將有更多機會。幾十年來,政府計畫已經從內部轉向商業服務合約,特別是在衛星通訊、衛星圖像和火箭發射方面。
Today, anywhere from 50% to 60% of US government budgets in those categories are used to purchase commercial solutions. In fact, the US Space Force has described their acquisition strategy as exploiting what they have, buying what they can, and only building what they must. The purchase of commercial weather data from satellites is starting to follow this same path and will likely be accelerated by changes in the US political environment.
如今,美國政府上述類別預算的 50% 到 60% 都用於購買商業解決方案。事實上,美國太空軍已將其收購策略描述為利用現有資源、購買能購買的東西、只建造必須建造的東西。購買衛星商業氣象資料也開始遵循同樣的路徑,可能會因美國政治環境的變化而加速。
With some agencies having budgets of $1 billion to $2 billion for weather data, a small shift in building less to buying more can create meaningful opportunities for Spireâs space-based weather data. As severe weather becomes more common, scientists are highlighting how valuable radio occultation data is in improving the accuracy of weather forecasting.
一些機構用於氣象數據的預算為 10 億至 20 億美元,因此,從減少建設到增加購買的微小轉變可以為 Spire 的太空氣象數據創造有意義的機會。隨著惡劣天氣變得越來越普遍,科學家們正在強調無線電掩星數據在提高天氣預報準確性方面具有多麼寶貴。
A numerical weather prediction study called the radio occultation modeling experiment was recently undertaken by a consortium of meteorology experts and demonstrated that forecast accuracy improves as more radio occultation measurements are incorporated. This particular experiment incorporated Spire data and showed forecast improvement with up to 35,000 radio-occultation profiles per day. The findings from the radio-occultation modeling experiment study will likely influence operational weather agencies such as NOAA in shaping how radio occultation observations are purchased for numerical weather prediction.
一群氣象專家最近開展了一項名為「無線電掩星建模實驗」的數值天氣預報研究,結果表明,隨著更多無線電掩星測量的加入,預報準確率會提高。這項特殊的實驗結合了 Spire 的數據,並顯示每天最多 35,000 個無線電掩星剖面的預測改進。無線電掩星建模實驗研究的結果可能會影響美國國家海洋暨大氣總署等氣象機構如何購買無線電掩星觀測資料進行數值天氣預報。
While this research focused on one particular data type, Spire also offers a range of other valuable data sets, including soil moisture and ocean winds. We are also deploying advanced collection techniques like microwave sounders, which deliver important information to address the challenges posed by severe weather.
雖然這項研究集中在一種特定的數據類型,但 Spire 還提供了一系列其他有價值的數據集,包括土壤濕度和海風。我們還部署了微波探測器等先進的收集技術,這些技術可以提供重要資訊來應對惡劣天氣帶來的挑戰。
Spire is continuing to enhance the company's weather modeling capabilities. Last year, we announced a collaboration with NVIDIA to integrate our radio occultation and proprietary data assimilation capabilities with NVIDIA's Earth-2 Cloud API. Building on this momentum, we recently introduced our AI-driven weather models, which deliver medium-range and sub-seasonal forecasts out to 45 days and run 1,000 times faster than traditional physics-based models. They are built on our proprietary data assimilation techniques and integrate data from our extensive satellite network, including atmospheric profiles, soil moisture readings, and ocean surface winds.
Spire 正在繼續增強公司的氣象建模能力。去年,我們宣布與 NVIDIA 合作,將我們的無線電掩星和專有資料同化功能與 NVIDIA 的 Earth-2 Cloud API 結合。基於這一勢頭,我們最近推出了由人工智慧驅動的天氣模型,該模型可以提供長達 45 天的中期和亞季節預報,運行速度比傳統基於物理的模型快 1,000 倍。它們建立在我們專有的數據同化技術之上,並整合了來自我們廣泛的衛星網路的數據,包括大氣剖面、土壤濕度讀數和海面風。
Unlike traditional deterministic models, the AI models provide probabilistic forecasts, offering a range of potential weather outcomes rather than a single prediction. Our new AI models help companies better anticipate and effectively respond to weather disruptions. Accurate forecasts are especially important for industries such as energy and commodities, which can face significant operational disruptions and inflated costs due to unexpected weather changes.
與傳統的確定性模型不同,人工智慧模型提供機率預測,提供一系列潛在的天氣結果,而不是單一的預測。我們的新 AI 模型可幫助公司更好地預測並有效應對天氣幹擾。準確的預測對於能源和商品等行業尤其重要,因為意外的天氣變化可能會導致嚴重的營運中斷和成本膨脹。
Beyond Spire's weather solutions, we are responding to heightened demand for our space reconnaissance solutions given the geopolitical environment. In the past month, the European Union, Germany, and the United Kingdom have disclosed their intent to raise their defense budgets. The UK has discussed plans to increase defense spending from 2.3% of GDP to 2.6% in 2028, coupled with an intention to drive industrial growth through support of onshore production. The EU has proposed an $840 billion plan to quickly increase defense spending, and Germany has voted to remove the debt ceiling to enable greater investment in defense.
除了 Spire 的氣象解決方案之外,我們還在滿足地緣政治環境下對我們的太空偵察解決方案日益增長的需求。過去一個月,歐盟、德國和英國都揭露了增加國防預算的意圖。英國已討論了到2028年將國防開支從佔GDP的2.3%增加到2.6%的計劃,同時還打算透過支持陸上生產來推動工業成長。歐盟提出8,400億美元的快速增加國防開支計劃,德國投票取消債務上限,以便增加國防投資。
Spire is building satellite technology in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Germany, allowing us to offer local solutions as governments invest in sovereign defense capabilities. Spire expects increased defense and intelligence spending to drive a portion of our revenue growth in the coming years. We are seeing some near-term results already.
Spire 正在美國、加拿大、英國和德國開發衛星技術,使我們能夠在各國政府投資主權防禦能力時提供本地解決方案。Spire 預計,未來幾年國防和情報支出的增加將推動我們部分收入的成長。我們已經看到了一些近期成果。
Spire has been awarded a low seven-figure maritime data deal from a long-term Spire customer in preparation for US government demand. We specifically decided to retain the US government portion of the maritime business given the near-term opportunities. We have also received an award from a defense organization for Spire Aviation Data, which is an expanded use case for what is normally considered a civil safety data set.
Spire 已與一位長期客戶簽訂了一份價值七位數的低海事數據合同,為滿足美國政府的需求做準備。考慮到近期的機遇,我們特意決定保留美國政府的海運業務部分。我們還因 Spire Aviation Data 獲得了國防組織頒發的獎項,這是通常被視為民用安全資料集的擴展用例。
In February, we were awarded a CAD72 million contract from the Canadian Space Agency for the wildfire sat program. This win is an example of governments investing in sovereign space capabilities to support their needs and a new willingness to prime with commercial companies like Spire.
今年 2 月,我們獲得了加拿大太空總署一份價值 7,200 萬加元的野火衛星計畫合約。這場勝利是各國政府投資主權太空能力以滿足其需求以及與 Spire 等商業公司合作的新意願的一個例子。
To better support the dramatic inbound interest in defense and intelligence applications from governments around the world, we officially established a space reconnaissance business unit with dedicated resources to drive our solutions and growth in this emerging global addressable market. What began as an R&D initiative using existing payloads in orbit has evolved into a scalable commercial offering delivering solutions to customers worldwide.
為了更好地支持世界各國政府對國防和情報應用的巨大興趣,我們正式成立了太空偵察業務部門,並投入專門的資源來推動我們在這個新興的全球目標市場的解決方案和成長。該項目最初是一項利用現有在軌有效載荷的研發計劃,現已演變為一項可擴展的商業服務,為全球客戶提供解決方案。
In addition to winning new business, Spire is intensifying its focus on efficiency, productivity, and standardization. We have established a dedicated program management office that is enhancing program governance and accountability and fostering greater cross-functional collaboration among engineering, operations, and business teams. The program management office is optimizing our resource allocation processes while enhancing our risk management frameworks, eliminating waste and elevating product quality.
除了贏得新業務之外,Spire 還加強了對效率、生產力和標準化的關注。我們設立了專門的專案管理辦公室,以加強專案管理和問責制,促進工程、營運和業務團隊之間加強跨職能合作。專案管理辦公室正在優化我們的資源分配流程,同時加強我們的風險管理框架,消除浪費並提高產品品質。
Our satellite development and manufacturing processes have been integrated to emphasize design for manufacturability and continuous improvement in satellite production. All of these initiatives result in shorter project timelines, improved market responsiveness, and higher margins that enhance shareholder value. These initiatives are being driven by our new Chief Operating Officer, Celia Pelaz in cooperation with our Chief Transformation Officer, Gabriel Oehme. They are pivotal improvements as we scale our capabilities for growth while driving meaningful improvements to our revenue and cash flow.
我們的衛星開發和製造流程已經整合,強調可製造性設計和衛星生產的持續改進。所有這些措施均能縮短專案時間、提高市場回應能力並提高利潤率,進而提升股東價值。這些措施由我們新任營運長 Celia Pelaz 與首席轉型長 Gabriel Oehme 合作推動。它們是至關重要的改進,因為我們擴大了成長能力,同時推動了收入和現金流的有意義的改善。
Recently, we announced that Ali Engel will join Spire as our new permanent CFO effective tomorrow. Ali will be based out of our DC office. She joins the Spire team after most recently serving as CFO of Lease Accelerator, a software as a service company that was similarly sized to Spire. Prior to that, she was the CFO of Gannett, a public diversified media company best known for USA today from 2015 to 2020. Ali has a track record of navigating complex challenges in rapidly evolving industries, experiencing complex hardware deployments, and years of judgment in navigating the financial reporting and control requirements of a public company. We are excited to welcome her to the Spire team.
最近,我們宣布 Ali Engel 將於明天加入 Spire 並擔任我們的新常任財務長。Ali 將駐紮在我們華盛頓特區的辦公室。在加入 Spire 團隊之前,她曾擔任 Lease Accelerator 的財務長,Lease Accelerator 是一家與 Spire 規模相似的軟體服務公司。在此之前,她於 2015 年至 2020 年期間擔任甘尼特(Gannett)的首席財務官,甘尼特是一家上市多元化媒體公司,以《今日美國》而聞名。Ali 在快速發展的行業中應對複雜挑戰、經歷複雜的硬體部署以及多年應對上市公司財務報告和控制要求的判斷方面有著豐富的經驗。我們很高興歡迎她加入 Spire 團隊。
Spire is continuing to pursue a dual track process in closing the sale of the maritime business. We speak with the buyer on a regular basis to resolve transition questions working towards a transaction closed in the next two to four weeks. At the same time, Spire is continuing to move forward with the legal process and to preserve our rights. The court has set the trial date for May 28.
Spire 將繼續推行雙軌程序來完成海運業務的出售。我們定期與買家溝通,解決過渡問題,並努力在未來兩到四周完成交易。與此同時,Spire 正在繼續推進法律程序並維護我們的權利。法院已將審判日期定於5月28日。
Over the past month, we have successfully completed the restatement process, launched new satellites, raised additional capital, hired an experienced CFO, and signed important new business related to our focus areas of climate and global security. Spire remains intent on driving profitable growth, enhancing operational efficiency, and ensuring reliable execution.
在過去的一個月裡,我們成功完成了重述過程,發射了新的衛星,籌集了額外資金,聘請了一位經驗豐富的首席財務官,並簽署了與我們重點關注的氣候和全球安全領域相關的重要新業務。Spire 始終致力於推動獲利成長、提高營運效率和確保可靠的執行。
With that, I will turn it over to Tom.
說完這些,我會把麥克風交給湯姆。
Thomas Krywe - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Principal Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer
Thomas Krywe - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Principal Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer
Thank you, Theresa. I would discuss non-GAAP financial measures unless otherwise stated. We have provided a reconciliation to GAAP to non-GAAP financials in our earnings release, which is available on our investor relations website and should be reviewed in conjunction with this earnings call.
謝謝你,特蕾莎。除非另有說明,我將討論非公認會計準則財務指標。我們在收益報告中提供了 GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務數據的對帳表,該對帳表可在我們的投資者關係網站上查閱,並應與本次收益電話會議一起進行審查。
Our 2024 results, almost in all cases, exceeded the high end of the range of the preliminary results we announced during our third quarter call. We had another successful year of methodically progressing on our trajectory towards profitability and free cash flow positivity with non-GAAP operating loss, adjusted EBITDA, cash flow from operations, and free cash flow all improving on a year-over-year basis.
我們的 2024 年業績幾乎在所有情況下都超過了我們在第三季電話會議上宣布的初步業績範圍的高端。我們又度過了成功的一年,在盈利和自由現金流呈正增長的軌道上穩步前進,非公認會計準則下的營業虧損、調整後的 EBITDA、經營現金流和自由現金流均同比有所改善。
GAAP revenue for the fiscal year 2024 was $110.5 million, increasing 13% year-over-year. This growth was primarily driven by increased annual reoccurring revenue business combined with growth in revenue recognized from space services contracts. The variance in revenue sequentially was impacted by the treatment of certain space services contracts, but as those older contracts terms expire, we expect to have our revenue stabilize into more traditional subscription-based model in the future.
2024 財年的 GAAP 營收為 1.105 億美元,較去年同期成長 13%。這一增長主要得益於年度經常性收入業務的增長以及空間服務合約確認收入的增長。收入的連續變化受到某些空間服務合約處理的影響,但隨著這些舊合約條款到期,我們預計未來我們的收入將穩定在更傳統的基於訂閱的模式。
ARR at quarter end was $112.2 million, up 5% year-over-year. Non-GAAP operating loss improved 21% to negative $30.4 million for fiscal year 2024, and adjusted EBITDA improved 36% to negative $16.1 million for the fiscal year 2024. These results continue to reflect the underlining operating leverage of our business model. We have a diversified portfolio of solutions to sell, collecting our unique space-based data once and selling it an unlimited number of times while leveraging our headcount and space-based technology across all these solutions.
季度末的 ARR 為 1.122 億美元,年增 5%。2024 財年非 GAAP 營業虧損改善 21% 至負 3,040 萬美元,2024 財年調整後 EBITDA 改善 36% 至負 1,610 萬美元。這些結果繼續反映出我們商業模式的根本經營槓桿。我們擁有多樣化的解決方案組合可供銷售,只需收集一次獨特的空間數據,即可無限次地出售,同時在所有這些解決方案中利用我們的員工人數和太空技術。
Moving now to the balance sheet. For 2024, we utilized $45 million of free cash flow, which was a 16% year-over-year improvement. Just over half of our full year free cash flow utilization occurred in the fourth quarter as expenses increased significantly for accounting, consulting, and legal costs associated with the restatement and the maritime transaction. We ended the year with cash, cash equivalents, and short-term marketable securities of approximately $20 million.
現在轉到資產負債表。2024 年,我們利用了 4,500 萬美元的自由現金流,年增 16%。由於與重述和海事交易相關的會計、諮詢和法律費用大幅增加,我們全年自由現金流利用率的一半以上發生在第四季度。截至年底,我們的現金、現金等價物和短期有價證券總額約為 2,000 萬美元。
During the first quarter of 2025, we raised $40 million of gross proceeds and a private placement to bolster our cash position while we continue to work on closing the maritime transaction.
2025 年第一季度,我們籌集了 4,000 萬美元的總收益和一筆私募,以增強我們的現金狀況,同時我們繼續致力於完成海運交易。
Now turning to our outlook. Given the timing variability to closing the maritime transaction and the associated impacts to annual revenue and expenses, at this time we'll only be providing full guidance for the first quarter of 2025. We will though share an expected growth range for a pro forma view of the remaining business excluding the held-for-sale maritime business. We expect to provide full year 2025 guidance shortly after closing the maritime transaction.
現在來談談我們的展望。鑑於完成海運交易的時間變化及其對年度收入和支出的影響,目前我們僅提供 2025 年第一季的完整指導。不過,我們將分享預期成長範圍,以作為持有待售海運業務以外的剩餘業務的預測。我們預計在完成海運交易後不久提供 2025 年全年業績指引。
For the first quarter, we expect revenue to range between $22 million to $24 million. For the full year, we expect revenue excluding the held-for-sale maritime business to grow at approximately 12% to 17%, with the larger growth coming in the second half of the year. These estimates take into account the impact of our revised revenue accounting for our space services contracts that we explained during our March 3 earnings call.
我們預計第一季的營收將在 2,200 萬美元至 2,400 萬美元之間。我們預計全年不包括持有待售海運業務的收入將成長約 12% 至 17%,下半年將出現更大的成長。這些估算考慮了我們在 3 月 3 日財報電話會議上解釋的太空服務合約修訂收入會計的影響。
The timing of revenue in 2024 and 2025 was and will be impacted by these space services contracts with having some of the older contracts with less deferred revenue expire and the newer space services contracts having revenue deferred until we complete our pre-space portion of the contract terms.
2024 年和 2025 年的收入時間已經並將受到這些太空服務合約的影響,其中一些遞延收入較少的舊合約將到期,而較新的太空服務合約的收入將被遞延,直到我們完成合約條款中太空之前的部分。
This timing issue created a few quarters with limited space services revenue from the fourth quarter of 2024 through the second quarter of 2025 while we launch and commission satellites and begin to deliver the data to those customers. We expect to see that revenue will start to flow in as we head into the second half of 2025 and into future years.
這個時間問題導致從 2024 年第四季到 2025 年第二季的幾個季度中,太空服務收入有限,在此期間我們發射和調試衛星並開始向這些客戶提供資料。我們預計,進入 2025 年下半年及未來幾年,收入將開始流入。
As we look to 2026, we expect to see approximately 20% revenue growth, excluding the held-for-sale maritime business. We expect to finish Q1 2025 with ending ARR ranging between $128 million and $130 million, which represents a $16.8 million sequential increase quarter-over-quarter and a 7% year-over-year growth rate at the midpoint. The Maritime held-for-sale of this ARR is approximately $42 million.
展望 2026 年,我們預計營收將成長約 20%,不包括持有待售的海運業務。我們預計 2025 年第一季的期末 ARR 將在 1.28 億美元至 1.3 億美元之間,比上一季增加 1,680 萬美元,比去年同期增加 7%。該 ARR 的海事持有待售價值約為 4,200 萬美元。
On a GAAP basis, we do expect to have higher than normal level of accounting, legal, and financial advisor fees in the first quarter due to completing our restatement process, managing the maritime transaction, and successfully completing $40 million of funding. We anticipate Q1 non-GAAP operating loss to range between negative $11 million and negative $13 million. For the first quarter we expect adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of negative $7.5 million and negative $9.5 million.
根據 GAAP,由於完成了重述流程、管理了海事交易並成功完成了 4000 萬美元的融資,我們預計第一季的會計、法律和財務顧問費用將高於正常水平。我們預計第一季非 GAAP 營業虧損將在負 1,100 萬美元至負 1,300 萬美元之間。我們預計第一季調整後的 EBITDA 將在負 750 萬美元至負 950 萬美元之間。
For non-GAAP loss per share we expect a range from negative $0.63 to negative $0.65 for the first quarter which assumes a basic weighted average share count of approximately 26.8 million shares. We expect to end the first quarter with cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term marketable securities of $34 million to $36 million, up $15.3 million quarter-over-quarter at the midpoint.
對於非公認會計準則每股虧損,我們預期第一季每股虧損在負 0.63 美元至負 0.65 美元之間,假設基本加權平均股數約為 2,680 萬股。我們預計第一季末的現金、現金等價物、受限現金和短期有價證券將達到 3,400 萬美元至 3,600 萬美元,中位數環比增長 1,530 萬美元。
Now I'd like to open the call up for questions.
現在我想開始回答大家的提問。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)
謝謝。我們現在將進行問答環節。(操作員指令)
Austin Moeller, Canaccord Genuity.
奧斯汀·莫勒(Austin Moeller),Canaccord Genuity。
Austin Moeller - Analyst
Austin Moeller - Analyst
Hi. Good afternoon, Theresa and Tom. So my first question here, to what degree should we expect the -- most of the revenue growth being in the second half has to do with the continuing resolution and the government's inability to issue new program start contracts until a final budget is put into place.
你好。下午好,特蕾莎和湯姆。所以我的第一個問題是,我們應該在多大程度上預期——下半年的大部分收入增長與持續的決議以及政府在最終預算出台之前無法簽發新的項目啟動合約有關。
Thomas Krywe - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Principal Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer
Thomas Krywe - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Principal Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer
Thanks, Austin. Yes, I'll start and I'll let Theresa add in if she wants to. As far as the growth in the second half, a lot of it's just the flow out of the committed revenue that we have on the books. So we have $68 million of revenue that we've got committed that will flow out. We're running about a 70% subscription-based percentage for the 2024 year which we don't expect to change too much in 2025.
謝謝,奧斯汀。是的,我先開始,如果 Theresa 願意的話,我也會讓她加入。就下半年的成長而言,很大一部分只是我們帳面上的承諾收入的流出。因此,我們已承諾撥出 6,800 萬美元的收入。到 2024 年,我們的訂閱比例將達到約 70%,預計 2025 年不會有太大變化。
So a lot of that revenue flow out is all the existing contracts and the flow through of business that we already have. Obviously, for the bookings and other activities, maybe I'll let Teresa answer the question just about how we see it progressing later in the year for how we book new stuff. But most of that revenue will start to flow more into 2026 rather than into 2025.
因此,收入流出很大一部分是我們已有的現有合約和業務流。顯然,對於預訂和其他活動,也許我會讓特蕾莎回答這個問題,關於我們如何看待今年稍後預訂新東西的進展。但大部分收入將流入至 2026 年,而非 2025 年。
Theresa Condor - Chief Executive Officer
Theresa Condor - Chief Executive Officer
Yes. Hi, Austin. I think the only other thing that I'll add there is that, as we look to the second half of the year, of course, we're seeing a lot of increase in budgets in other places other than the United States. And that's something that is going to be driving growth in the second half of the year. And we do, of course, expect that certain changes in the administration, especially as it relates to working more fully with commercial companies on commercial data buys is something that also starts to increase in the second half of the year.
是的。你好,奧斯汀。我想補充的另一件事是,展望今年下半年,我們當然會看到美國以外其他地方的預算大幅增加。這將會推動今年下半年的成長。當然,我們確實預計,政府的某些變化,特別是在與商業公司就商業數據購買進行更充分的合作方面的變化,也將在今年下半年開始增加。
Austin Moeller - Analyst
Austin Moeller - Analyst
Okay. And just a follow-up question. Should we expect customers that are using the new AI weather models and associated data to pay a higher subscription fee? And what is the gross margin profile look at on like subscriptions using AI versus the previous numerical models?
好的。這只是一個後續問題。我們是否應該要求使用新 AI 天氣模型和相關數據的客戶支付更高的訂閱費用?與先前的數位模型相比,使用人工智慧的訂閱的毛利率狀況如何?
Theresa Condor - Chief Executive Officer
Theresa Condor - Chief Executive Officer
So I don't know that you should necessarily expect dramatically different gross margins when we look at it on a product by product basis. I think really the way to think about it is just overall for the company Spire and the trajectory of our gross margins, which has always been to collect the data once and sell it multiple times and do all the analytics on it. We just released those AI models and so we'll go into the monetization phase of that on a go-forward basis.
因此,當我們逐個產品地看待這個問題時,我不知道是否應該預期毛利率會有巨大差異。我認為真正思考這個問題的方式只是對於 Spire 公司和我們的毛利率走勢而言的,它一直是收集一次數據並多次出售並對其進行所有分析。我們剛剛發布了這些人工智慧模型,因此我們將在未來進入其貨幣化階段。
Thomas Krywe - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Principal Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer
Thomas Krywe - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Principal Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer
Yes. And Austin, you can continually just expect that continual upward movement on our gross margins. We did reset the bar with the restated type of numbers now. So it's a little bit lower than it was before with how the restatement flowed and worked.
是的。奧斯汀,您可以持續期待我們的毛利率持續上升。我們現在確實用重述的數字重新設定了標準。因此,按照重述的流程和運作方式,它比以前要低一點。
But you'll continually see that leverage business model as we've got the diversified solutions to sell, more and more that revenue keeps coming in, and then that leveraged infrastructure with our head count and with the technology side being very leveraged across all those solutions. So you'll still continually see that upward movement as we go into this year and into next year.
但是,您會不斷看到這種槓桿業務模式,因為我們擁有多樣化的解決方案可供銷售,收入不斷增加,然後槓桿基礎設施、我們的員工數量以及技術方面在所有這些解決方案中都發揮了很大的槓桿作用。因此,當我們進入今年和明年時,您仍然會繼續看到這種上升趨勢。
Operator
Operator
Rick Prentiss, Raymond James.
瑞克普倫蒂斯、雷蒙詹姆斯。
Brent Penter - Analyst
Brent Penter - Analyst
Hey, thanks everyone. This is Brent Penter on for Rick. First question, appreciate the update on the maritime sale. Can you just give us a little bit more color on your level of confidence in Track one in the next kind of two to four-week closing timeline? What milestones need to happen? And is your partner cooperating as expected in terms of weekly progress reports and whatnot?
嘿,謝謝大家。這是布倫特彭特 (Brent Penter) 代替里克 (Rick)。第一個問題,請您介紹一下海上銷售的最新情況。您能否進一步說明一下您對未來兩到四周的收尾時間表內第一軌道的信心程度?需要實現哪些里程碑?您的合作夥伴在每週進度報告等方面是否如預期地合作?
Theresa Condor - Chief Executive Officer
Theresa Condor - Chief Executive Officer
Hi. What I can share on Track one, is that we are very regularly speaking with the buyer. We are regularly working with them on how they're planning to run the maritime business post-close and all the details around the transition services agreement. So that is very regular and intense engagement between the teams.
你好。關於第一條軌道我可以分享的是,我們一直在與買家進行定期的交談。我們定期與他們合作,討論他們計劃如何在交易結束後運營海運業務以及過渡服務協議的所有細節。因此,團隊之間的互動非常頻繁且密切。
Coming out of all of that interaction and their continuing voice to us that they intend to close this transaction as soon as possible is why we've continued to stick with the timeline that Peter mentioned in the earnings call back about a month ago where he said this was six to eight week timeline. And so we're reiterating that to be now a month later, a two to four week timeline.
透過所有這些互動以及他們不斷向我們表示他們打算盡快完成這筆交易,我們繼續堅持彼得在大約一個月前的財報電話會議上提到的時間表,他說這是六到八週的時間表。因此我們重申現在是一個月後,兩到四周的時間表。
There's nothing more I can say at this point. We continue to hold that this transaction should have already closed and are working closely with the buyer in that regard. At the same time, we are full force pursuing the legal pathway. And as you know, we have a May 28 court date. So both of those are coming quite soon.
我現在沒什麼好說的了。我們仍然認為這筆交易應該已經完成,並且正在就此與買家密切合作。同時,我們正在全力尋求法律途徑。如你所知,我們的開庭日期為 5 月 28 日。所以這兩者都將很快到來。
Brent Penter - Analyst
Brent Penter - Analyst
Got it. And then appreciate the guidance out to 2026. What gives you the confidence in that and accelerating growth next year? I appreciate the second half-weighted part of it. But what areas are really driving that and what portion of that is locked in contractually?
知道了。然後感謝對 2026 年的指導。是什麼讓您對此有信心並相信明年會加速成長?我很欣賞它的後半部。但是,哪些領域真正推動了這一趨勢,又有多少部分是透過合約鎖定的呢?
Theresa Condor - Chief Executive Officer
Theresa Condor - Chief Executive Officer
Yes, so Tom, do you want to start with the portion that is locked in contractually and I'll talk more about business outlook overall?
是的,那麼湯姆,你想從合約鎖定的部分開始,然後再談談整體業務前景嗎?
Thomas Krywe - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Principal Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer
Thomas Krywe - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Principal Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer
Yes, so we do have, and we have this in our filing which can get to the details of the split out -- splits by year, But there's $216 million that we have from committed customer revenue. They're all binding contracts about $68 million of that will flow into 2025. So that's why we got the comfort level on that revenue flowing in. Like I mentioned, we have a good subscription model that's flowing out the revenue for the rest of this year.
是的,我們確實有,而且我們的文件中有這個,可以了解分拆的詳細信息——按年份分拆,但我們從承諾的客戶收入中獲得了 2.16 億美元。它們都是具有約束力的合同,其中約 6800 萬美元將流入 2025 年。這就是我們對收入流入感到放心的原因。正如我所提到的,我們有一個很好的訂閱模式,這將為今年剩餘時間帶來收入。
Plus, we just came in our guidance for the midpoint of $129 million of ARR ending the first quarter. That means that we will also have that flow out, flowing into the rest of this year, and then that will also continue into 2026. We had 20 satellites launch in the first quarter, and with those launches, that's what's going to trigger some of the space services revenue also to kick in.
此外,我們剛剛公佈了第一季末 ARR 中位數 1.29 億美元的預期。這意味著我們還會有這筆資金流出,流入今年剩餘時間,然後這筆資金也將持續到 2026 年。我們在第一季發射了 20 顆衛星,這些衛星的發射也將帶動部分太空服務收入的增加。
Most of those type of contracts are in a pre and post phase type of revenue where you can't take any of the revenue during the pre-space portion and you take the revenue, you defer it up until the point that you actually start the satellites go up in space, the data starts being collected and given to the customer. And then we then spread the revenue out over roughly a three year span.
大多數此類合約都屬於前期和後期收入類型,您不能在太空發射前階段獲取任何收入,而是將收入推遲到衛星真正升空、開始收集數據並提供給客戶的時候。然後我們將收入分攤到大約三年的時間內。
So that revenue is now going to start kicking in. And that's why we have the later half of this year having the higher revenue. And then that revenue flows all the way out into the future also. So that's our confidence, confidence level on the growth rates for this year and why we also expect that to expand into 2026.
因此,收入現在就要開始發揮作用了。這就是我們今年下半年收入更高的原因。然後這些收入也會流入未來。這就是我們對今年成長率的信心和信心水平,也是我們預期成長率將延續到 2026 年的原因。
Theresa Condor - Chief Executive Officer
Theresa Condor - Chief Executive Officer
And if I can just add on the kind of business outlook as we get into the second half of the year and into 2026, it's really repeating some of the comments I made during the first portion of the call, which is really the increased focus on defense and intelligence budgets that we're seeing, particularly in Europe, but also in urgency in other parts of the world as well, where Spire is signing and closing contracts, not always ones that we can talk about. And we continue to think that that's going to be a growth area for us.
如果我可以補充我們進入今年下半年和 2026 年時的業務前景,那麼這實際上是在重複我在電話會議第一部分中所做的一些評論,即我們看到人們對國防和情報預算的關注度增加,特別是在歐洲,但在世界其他地區,Spire 正在簽署和完成合同,但並不總是我們可以談論的合同。我們仍然認為這將是我們的一個成長領域。
The other thing that we mentioned is the increased focus of the current administration in the United States to work more fully with commercial companies on commercial services contracts. And so, we do expect to see a change in how procurement is done in that regard.
我們提到的另一件事是,美國現任政府更重視與商業公司就商業服務合約進行更充分的合作。因此,我們確實希望看到採購方式在這方面發生變化。
And then the final thing that I want to mention is the increased focus on sovereign capabilities that we're seeing from a lot of countries. You're seeing it out of Canada. You're also seeing out of the UK and out of Europe where these countries are no longer looking at just purchasing defense capabilities from US companies who build all the technology in the United States as used to have them.
我最後要說的是,我們看到很多國家都越來越重視主權能力。你在加拿大看到了這種現象。你也會看到,在英國和歐洲以外,這些國家不再只考慮從美國公司購買國防能力,而美國公司過去在美國製造所有的技術。
And they're focusing more on how can they work with companies that do production locally, as well as having management and control locally. And Spire is really well positioned to take advantage of these opportunities because we're already set up like that.
他們更加關注如何與當地生產的公司合作,以及如何在當地進行管理和控制。Spire 確實處於非常有利的位置來利用這些機會,因為我們已經做好了這樣的準備。
Brent Penter - Analyst
Brent Penter - Analyst
Got it. And then last one for me on free cashflow. You all had talked about summer 2024 as the turning point. And then you did, you achieved it, went positive, but back negative again and a lot of moving pieces in there with the legal costs and the deal costs, but also potentially being debt-free. So how should we think about what free cash flow looks like from here in terms of going positive again, and then staying positive and ramping from there?
知道了。最後一個問題是關於自由現金流。你們都說過 2024 年夏天是個轉捩點。然後你做到了,你實現了目標,一開始是積極的,但後來又回到消極的,而且還涉及很多變動因素,包括法律成本和交易成本,但也可能沒有債務。那麼,我們應該如何看待自由現金流從現在開始再次變為正值,然後保持正值並從那裡開始增加?
Thomas Krywe - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Principal Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer
Thomas Krywe - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Principal Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer
Yes, I think if you look at the first quarter, it's going to be very similar to the fourth quarter as far as obviously the extra set of expenses in there with the legal, we finished up the restatement so we had some extra accounting in the first quarter. And then we also did some additional funding which triggered some fees in there on the financial advisory side.
是的,我認為如果你看第一季度,它將與第四季度非常相似,因為顯然其中有一系列與法律相關的額外費用,我們完成了重述,因此我們在第一季度進行了一些額外的會計工作。然後我們也進行了一些額外融資,這在財務諮詢方面產生了一些費用。
So first quarter's got a bit more of that. As Theresa mentioned, the transaction closing expected in the two to four weeks. Of course, then we'll have a little bit more expenses as we head into the second quarter around the transaction itself. So there will be a bit more of that that will affect the free cash flow.
因此第一季的情況稍微好一點。正如 Theresa 所說,交易預計在兩到四周內完成。當然,進入第二季度,我們在交易本身的支出會稍微多一點。所以,會有更多因素影響自由現金流。
But if you take away all that noise and the abnormal activity, it's going to be back to the normal flow and the more normal track that you were seeing with a continual progression towards free cash flow positive because of, again, having that diversified set of solutions to sell multiple revenue streams coming in collecting that data one selling it as many times as possible and then having the leveraged cost structure built around that. So it just will keep allowing us to get to that.
但是,如果消除所有噪音和異常活動,它將恢復正常流動和更正常的軌道,您會不斷看到自由現金流為正,因為再次擁有多樣化的解決方案來銷售多種收入來源,透過收集數據,盡可能多地銷售數據,然後圍繞此建立槓桿成本結構。所以它將幫助我們繼續實現這一目標。
Now when the transaction goes through, that will bring the revenue down a bit and then obviously there's a build back up again to get to the free cash flow positive because the billings will drop obviously and the revenue will flow down. So we'll have a little bit of a build back up again. But we're still the same functionality, the same foundation of what we've had in the past on that path, profitability will still be there.
現在,當交易完成時,收入會有所下降,然後顯然會再次增加以獲得正的自由現金流,因為帳單會明顯下降,收入也會下降。因此我們將稍微重新開始建造。但我們仍具有相同的功能,與我們過去在這條道路上所擁有的相同的基礎,盈利能力仍然存在。
Operator
Operator
Jeff Meuler, Baird.
傑夫·穆勒,貝爾德。
Jeffrey Meuler - Analyst
Jeffrey Meuler - Analyst
Thank you. So the guidance for Q1, that's including commercial maritime. So it's something like $12 million at the midpoint excluding commercial maritime. Is that correct for revenue?
謝謝。因此,第一季的指導包括商業海事。因此,不包括商業海事,中間值約為 1200 萬美元。這對於收入來說正確嗎?
Thomas Krywe - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Principal Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer
Thomas Krywe - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Principal Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer
Yes, the first quarter does include the maritime transaction, so we do have that built in there.
是的,第一季確實包括了海運交易,所以我們確實把它計算在內了。
Jeffrey Meuler - Analyst
Jeffrey Meuler - Analyst
So I think that then implies that you're going from somewhere around that $12 million figure that might not be precise, but up to $21.5 million per quarter over the balance of the year. Just maybe a different way to ask the question that you were asked earlier, but that's a pretty big step up. So how much of that is kind of the air pocket related to space services [RevTrak]? How much of that is in the hand? How much of that is based on pipeline conversion? It just seems like a pretty sizable step up.
所以我認為這意味著你將從大約 1200 萬美元的某個數字開始,這個數字可能不準確,但全年餘額每季最高可達 2150 萬美元。也許只是用一種不同的方式來提出你之前被問到的問題,但這是一個相當大的進步。那麼其中有多少是與太空服務相關的氣穴呢?[RevTrak]?手上有多少?其中有多少是基於管道轉換?這看起來是一個相當大的進步。
Thomas Krywe - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Principal Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer
Thomas Krywe - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Principal Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer
Yes. So as I mentioned, there is that gap in time where we had some of the older contracts that had revenue that was more spread out evenly throughout the contract end. And now all of the newer contracts are this pre and post-space services type contracts where we have to defer the revenue. So we got this gap of time where we're really not getting very much revenue at all. If you looked at the fourth quarter subscription percentage, it was about 90% when we did the full year around 70%. So really there was not much of that other chunk of revenue that we're normally getting in. And there's a similar trend in that for the first quarter, as I mentioned.
是的。正如我所提到的那樣,在時間上存在差距,我們有一些較舊的合同,這些合約的收入在合約結束時分佈得比較均勻。現在所有較新的合約都是這種前期和後期太空服務類型的合同,我們必須推遲收入。因此,在這段時間內,我們實際上沒有獲得太多的收入。如果你看一下第四季的訂閱率,它大約是 90%,而全年的訂閱率大約是 70%。因此,我們實際上通常獲得的其他收入並不多。正如我所提到的,第一季也出現了類似的趨勢。
We're starting to come out a little bit in the second quarter, but then the third and fourth quarter, we really kick in the gear with the higher contracts. We signed the Canadian Space Agency deal in the first quarter. That's going to drive significant revenue increases as we go later in the year. We had 20 launches, satellites launched. Now all those space services contracts will start. Those customers now will be getting the data and that's going to drive the kick up in the space services and then the other businesses will continually flow as the growth we had projected for them.
我們在第二季度開始取得一些進展,但到了第三季和第四季度,我們才真正開始透過更高的合約來發力。我們在第一季簽署了與加拿大航太局的協議。這將推動我們在今年稍後的收入大幅增加。我們進行了 20 次發射,發射了衛星。現在所有這些太空服務合約都將開始生效。這些客戶現在將獲得數據,這將推動空間服務的發展,然後其他業務將按照我們為其預測的成長持續流動。
Jeffrey Meuler - Analyst
Jeffrey Meuler - Analyst
Got it. And then just with the pullback, I guess in the weather balloon launches from the weather service, can you just kind of talk about, like, the cost effectiveness of maybe RO profiles relative to weather balloons or other methodologies, radar or whatnot? So, just maybe cost effectiveness and statistical lift or to what degree it's orthogonal, et cetera.
知道了。然後,隨著氣象服務的撤退,我想在氣象氣球發射中,您能否談談 RO 剖面相對於氣象氣球或其他方法、雷達等的成本效益?所以,也許只是成本效益和統計提升,或者其正交程度等等。
Theresa Condor - Chief Executive Officer
Theresa Condor - Chief Executive Officer
So, there has been analysis done on the cost of launching weather balloons. And I think I don't have the exact numbers on hand, but based on all the infrastructure that has to happen and the type of pricing per RO profile, radio occultation soundings are very cost effective for the government when they're purchasing vertical soundings.
因此,已經對發射氣象氣球的成本進行了分析。我認為我手頭上沒有確切的數字,但基於必須實現的所有基礎設施和每個 RO 剖面的定價類型,當政府購買垂直探測時,無線電掩星探測對政府來說是非常具有成本效益的。
Now, you can't really compare one for one what you get from radio occultation and what you get from the weather balloons. Some things overlap in terms of measurements, some things don't. What I would say is that, all of this contributes to the demand for commercial services that companies like Spire can provide in a cost-effective way. And that is not just radio occultation. It's the other types of data sets that we can provide, as we've mentioned, talking about soil moisture, talking about ocean surface winds, starting to talk about microwave. And I think there is a demand and expectation going forward that commercial companies will be providing more of these data sets in the future.
現在,你無法真正一對一地比較從無線電掩星獲得的資訊和從氣象氣球獲得的資訊。有些事物在測量方面重疊,有些事物則不重疊。我想說的是,所有這些都促進了對 Spire 等公司能夠以經濟高效的方式提供的商業服務的需求。這不僅僅是無線電掩星。這是我們可以提供的其他類型的數據集,正如我們所提到的,談論土壤濕度,談論海面風,開始談論微波。我認為未來人們會有需求,並且期望商業公司將來能提供更多這樣的數據集。
Jeffrey Meuler - Analyst
Jeffrey Meuler - Analyst
Got it. And then last one for me, the 20% pro-forma growth that you're talking about in 2026, does that contemplate or require increased investment using some of the divestiture proceeds, or is that just kind of like how you kind of view a normalized growth rate without that increased investment for the remain co-business? Thank you.
知道了。最後一個問題,您所說的 2026 年 20% 的預期成長率,是否考慮或需要使用部分資產剝離收益來增加投資,或者這只是您如何看待在沒有增加剩餘共同業務投資的情況下的正常化成長率?謝謝。
Theresa Condor - Chief Executive Officer
Theresa Condor - Chief Executive Officer
This is going to be on ongoing normal business growth. I think we're going to want to continue to do more investment on the sales and marketing side to take advantage of these demand opportunities. But it's not an expectation of some kind of brand new product, brand new infrastructure that is out of the ordinary.
這將實現持續正常的業務成長。我認為我們將希望繼續在銷售和行銷方面進行更多投資,以利用這些需求機會。但這並不是對某種不同尋常的全新產品、全新基礎設施的期望。
Operator
Operator
Erik Rasmussen, Stifel.
埃里克·拉斯穆森(Erik Rasmussen),Stifel。
Erik Rasmussen - Analyst
Erik Rasmussen - Analyst
Thanks for taking the questions. Maybe I'll just ask it a different way. Your guidance for this year has 12% to 17%. I'm just trying to understand, though, obviously that growth rate is a little bit lower and you've sort of lost some momentum. But if you had to sort of speak to the two areas where you're probably getting the headwind. One is, lost momentum with customers based on all the different things you guys and challenges you guys faced last year and with the push out of the close of the deal. And versus the headwinds from the restatement, it seems like that's about a $10 million headwind in any given year. Just help me frame sort of -- balance the two in terms of how you arrive at that 12% to 17%.
感謝您回答這些問題。或許我應該用不同的方式來詢問。您今年的預期是 12% 至 17%。我只是想知道,顯然成長率有點低,而且失去了一些動力。但如果您必須談論這兩個領域,您可能會遇到阻力。一是,由於你們去年面臨的各種不同情況和挑戰,以及交易延遲,導致客戶流失。與重述帶來的不利因素相比,似乎任何一年的不利因素都約為 1,000 萬美元。只是幫助我建立某種框架——平衡兩者,以便達到 12% 到 17% 的目標。
Theresa Condor - Chief Executive Officer
Theresa Condor - Chief Executive Officer
I think I can start, Tom, and then if you want to add to it. So we did have quite a bit of disruption in the second half of 2024 and now going into the first half of 2025, which is a product of the restatement and is a product of the sale of the maritime business and how that impacted that business, how it impacted the timing even of some of our other contracts, such as the Canadian Space Agency one that had some delay because of the maritime transaction and the entity that we were going to contract with.
我想我就可以開始了,湯姆,然後如果你想補充的話。因此,我們在 2024 年下半年和現在進入 2025 年上半年確實遇到了相當大的混亂,這是重述的產物,也是海運業務出售的產物,以及這對該業務的影響,它如何影響我們其他一些合同的時間安排,例如加拿大航天局的合同由於海運交易和我們要與之簽訂合同的實體而有所延遲。
And then, of course, there's still ongoing disruption as we work to close out the sale of the maritime transaction. So those have had an impact in the early portion of this year. And as we go into the second half of the year and everything starts to get back to the focus on execution, we start to also see some of the benefits of what the new executive team is doing in terms of efficiency and in terms of product quality and we start to see revenue growth kick in as we've already talked about from all these satellites that have been launched in the early part of this year?
當然,在我們努力完成海運交易的過程中,仍會出現持續的混亂。所以這些都對今年年初產生了影響。隨著我們進入下半年,一切又開始重新聚焦於執行,我們也開始看到新執行團隊在效率和產品品質方面所做的一些工作所帶來的好處,我們也開始看到收入成長,正如我們已經討論過的,這些收入來自今年年初發射的所有這些衛星?
Thomas Krywe - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Principal Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer
Thomas Krywe - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Principal Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer
Yes, and just some quick mathâs around there. I know a lot of this stuff is in what we just described and also in the 10-K, but just to help you with the math. If you look at how we got to the baseline number for 2024 on a pro forma basis, revenue was around just over $110 million. We mentioned that $43.5 million of that was roughly coming from the pro forma held for sale business. So you get about a $67 million pro forma number for 2024. You build the 12% to 17% on that.
是的,這裡只是進行一些簡單的數學運算。我知道很多這方面的內容都在我們剛剛描述的以及 10-K 中,但這只是為了幫助您計算。如果您查看我們如何以預測為基礎得出 2024 年的基準數字,則收入約為 1.1 億美元。我們提到,其中 4,350 萬美元約來自備考持有待售業務。因此,您可以獲得 2024 年的預計數字約為 6700 萬美元。在此基礎上再增加 12% 至 17%。
Another way to triangulate though, to get that -- how that math also works is, if you take our ARR, we ended the year at roughly $112 million ARR. We're saying that we're going to end the first quarter on the midpoint of $129 million of ARR. If you average those two numbers out, you get about $120 million of ARR, and then we said the maritime business is about a $42 million held for sale maritime business. So you subtract that out you're getting that around a $78 million number which is the high end of our range.
不過,另一種三角測量方法是,如果採用我們的 ARR,那麼到年底,我們的 ARR 約為 1.12 億美元。我們預計第一季結束時 ARR 的中點將達到 1.29 億美元。如果將這兩個數字取平均,則會得到約 1.2 億美元的 ARR,然後我們說海運業務約為 4,200 萬美元的持有待售海運業務。因此,減去這個數字,你會得到大約 7800 萬美元的數字,這是我們範圍的高端。
Erik Rasmussen - Analyst
Erik Rasmussen - Analyst
That's helpful. Great. And you are in an EBITDA loss again just because of all the noise, but when do you think you could actually get adjusted EBITDA positive? You're looking at about $9 million to $7 million, so $8.5 million negative in Q1. But can you actually see positive adjusts at EBITDA sometime in the second half of the year?
這很有幫助。偉大的。而且由於所有這些噪音,您的 EBITDA 再次出現虧損,但您認為什麼時候才能真正實現調整後的 EBITDA 為正值呢?您所看到的金額約為 900 萬美元至 700 萬美元,因此第一季的負金額為 850 萬美元。但你真的能在下半年看到 EBITDA 的正向調整嗎?
Thomas Krywe - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Principal Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer
Thomas Krywe - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Principal Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer
As we mentioned, we didn't put out the guidance on this stuff because we want to make sure we just get through the transaction and we have clarity on all those details. But I will say the trajectory that we were on prior to some of this noise and other activity that we had, as you mentioned, we were on that path. We were heading towards free cash flow positive. We were heading for the profitability also on an adjusted EBITDA standpoint.
正如我們所提到的,我們沒有發布有關這方面的指導,因為我們想確保我們完成交易並且清楚了解所有細節。但我要說的是,在這些噪音和其他活動出現之前,我們就已經走上了這條道路,正如你所提到的。我們正朝著自由現金流為正的方向發展。我們也從調整後的 EBITDA 角度努力實現獲利。
Again, because that structure is still 100% there of having the diversified solutions and having the leverage infrastructure. So we do have that path that we're going to get there. Again, we didn't guide for all the components, but the fundamentals are there. And as that revenue keeps growing, we're going to get to that point. So again, we just have to build back up the revenue to get to the levels that we had when we were getting to that point.
再說一次,因為該結構仍然 100% 存在,擁有多樣化的解決方案和槓桿基礎設施。所以我們確實有到達那裡的路徑。再次強調,我們沒有指導所有組件,但是基礎知識就在那裡。隨著收入不斷成長,我們就會達到這個目標。所以,我們只需要重新增加收入,以達到我們當時的水準。
Erik Rasmussen - Analyst
Erik Rasmussen - Analyst
Great. Maybe just specifically on the eight satellites that were launched recently for Aurora Tech. Can you share with us how those satellites are performing, any observations thus far?
偉大的。也許只是特別針對最近為 Aurora Tech 發射的八顆衛星。您能否與我們分享這些衛星的運作情況以及迄今為止的任何觀察結果?
Theresa Condor - Chief Executive Officer
Theresa Condor - Chief Executive Officer
Satellites are going through the checkout and commissioning process like normal. So I think there's nothing to share at the moment other than they're going through what is expected process.
衛星正在正常進行檢查和調試過程。因此我認為除了他們正在經歷預期的進程之外,目前沒有什麼可分享的。
Operator
Operator
Jeff Van Rhee, Craig-Hallum.
傑夫·範·裡、克雷格·哈勒姆。
Jeff Van Rhee - Analyst
Jeff Van Rhee - Analyst
Great, thanks for taking the questions. A few for me. Tom, on the Q1 outlook. Just can you put a little finer point around how much unusual is in there? Maybe I can back into it. You gave quite a few data points for Q1, but just a little finer point on what is your estimate of what's unusual in Q1?
太好了,感謝您回答這些問題。對我來說有幾個。湯姆,關於第一季的展望。您能否更詳細地說明一下其中有多少不尋常之處?也許我可以重新回到過去。您給出了 Q1 的相當多的數據點,但您對 Q1 中異常情況的估計是否更詳細一些?
Thomas Krywe - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Principal Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer
Thomas Krywe - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Principal Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer
You know what? The Q4 and the Q1 are going to be very, very similar. If you kind of look at the numbers, everything's like slightly better than the Q4 numbers, but the flow of how those extracurricular activity is very similar to the fourth quarter. The only bigger difference there is that the revenue -- we're doing better on the revenue for the first quarter guidance than we had for the fourth quarter. That revenue flow down is almost exactly the same. You get to the same sets of margins.
你知道嗎?Q4 和 Q1 將會非常非常相似。如果你看一下這些數字,你會發現一切都比第四季的數字略好一些,但這些課外活動的流程與第四季非常相似。唯一更大的差異是收入——我們第一季的收入預期比第四季更好。收入流幾乎完全相同。您可以獲得相同的邊距。
So the extracurricular expenses is very similar. We stopped the restatement type of expenses, but then we had a funding expense for getting the $40 million of gross funding into the quarter. So we had that a little extra bit in there. And then the maritime -- the managing the maritime transaction had very similar expenditure in the fourth and the first quarter.
所以課外費用非常相似。我們停止了重述類型的費用,但隨後我們有一筆融資費用,用於將 4000 萬美元的總融資額投入本季度。因此我們在那裡添加了一點額外的東西。然後,海運——管理海運交易在第四季和第一季的支出非常相似。
Jeff Van Rhee - Analyst
Jeff Van Rhee - Analyst
Okay. And maybe just to give you an opportunity, I think in terms of the forward years we all build our models, since you still have maritime, I'm presuming we'll all have it in there in our outlooks until you close the sale. How would you want us to think about a plug figure for Maritime for 2025?
好的。也許只是為了給你一個機會,我認為就未來幾年而言,我們都建立了我們的模型,因為你仍然有海運,我假設我們都會把它放在我們的展望中,直到你完成銷售。您希望我們如何看待2025年海事產業的插頭數據?
Thomas Krywe - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Principal Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer
Thomas Krywe - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Principal Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer
Yes. I mean the flow has been pretty similar in that business as far as the quarterization. So we did give an annualized number for 2024. So I think just applying that, I mean, the business isn't soaring while it's in this held for sale moment. So I would assume a very similar type of trajectory as you kind of have for Q1 and then two to four weeks to kind of model out for the coming quarter here in Q2.
是的。我的意思是,就季度化而言,該業務的流程非常相似。因此我們確實給了 2024 年的年化數字。所以我認為,僅僅應用這一點,我的意思是,在這種待售時刻,業務不會飆升。因此,我會假設其發展軌跡與第一季非常相似,然後需要兩到四周的時間來模擬第二季的情況。
Jeff Van Rhee - Analyst
Jeff Van Rhee - Analyst
Okay. And then, Theresa, just a question on [Talus] and obviously if you've had some other whales that you've either worked on or had gotten to some degree of a finish line and then presumably the situation with the non-current financials and the Kepler sale and you referenced all these things kind of throwing it back into the air.
好的。然後,特蕾莎,我只想問一下關於 [Talus] 的問題,很明顯,如果你還研究過其他一些鯨魚,或者它們已經達到了某種程度的終點,那麼大概就是非當前財務狀況和開普勒出售的情況,你提到的所有這些事情,都把它拋回了空中。
Presuming we get this Kepler transaction closed in four to six weeks, the debt situation is taken care of, any reason to think things with transactions like Talus have changed other than just simply a pause to wait until you get past these hurdles, namely, are these major contracts, have they gone away or been permanently lost? I'm thinking specifically to Talus, but if you can comment there or a little more broadly, it'd be great.
假設我們在四到六週內完成開普勒交易,債務情況得到解決,有什麼理由認為像 Talus 這樣的交易已經發生了變化,而不僅僅是簡單地暫停以等待你越過這些障礙,即這些主要合同是否已經消失或永久丟失?我特別想到了 Talus,但如果您可以在那裡或更廣泛地發表評論,那就太好了。
Theresa Condor - Chief Executive Officer
Theresa Condor - Chief Executive Officer
I would say in general, things have not gone away. And you can see that from the Canadian Space Agency contract that we keep referencing. And that is with a marquee name that has a lot of focus and publicity behind it and we can win deals like that and we'll continue to do so. When it comes to Talus, as you know, we announced last year that we had started the very beginning kind of phase of that contract, which was related to the design of the satellite architecture and constellation. We continue to meet very regularly with Talus as well as the wider consortium on that project related to the next steps and the timeline.
我想說,總的來說,事情並沒有消失。您可以從我們一直引用的加拿大航太局合約中看到這一點。憑藉著一個備受關注和宣傳的大品牌,我們可以贏得這樣的交易,而且我們將繼續這樣做。說到 Talus,如你所知,我們去年宣布我們已經啟動該合約的初始階段,該階段涉及衛星架構和星座的設計。我們繼續與 Talus 以及該計畫的更廣泛的財團定期會面,討論下一步行動和時間表。
Tied in closely with that is the work that we're doing on [Uri Aloe] , which is the GNSS independent civil aviation surveillance demonstration that we've also talked about in the past. That one is deep in execution mode, and we're continuing to work with Talus as well as the consortium on what that looks like as a follow-on phase that will be discussed at the upcoming European Space Agency Ministerial.
與此密切相關的是我們正在進行的 [Uri Aloe] 工作,也就是我們過去也討論過的 GNSS 獨立民航監視演示。該專案目前處於深入執行階段,我們將繼續與 Talus 以及該聯盟合作,討論後續階段的具體事宜,我們將在即將召開的歐洲航天局部長級會議上進行討論。
Jeff Van Rhee - Analyst
Jeff Van Rhee - Analyst
Okay, great. And last one for me then also for you Theresa on the -- you mentioned the space reconnaissance business unit dedicated resources started as an R&D effort now a scalable unit. Maybe a little more emphasis there than I had expected or maybe you could just flesh that out a little bit more. What's changing there? Tell us about this unit and how we got to this point.
好的,太好了。最後一個問題,我和 Theresa 都問過,您提到太空偵察業務部門的專用資源最初是作為研發工作開始的,現在是一個可擴展的部門。也許比我預期的要強調一點,也許你可以更充實一點。那裡有什麼變化?請向我們介紹一下這個單位以及我們是如何達到這一點的。
Theresa Condor - Chief Executive Officer
Theresa Condor - Chief Executive Officer
Yes, so I think you've probably heard us talk about radio frequency geolocation a number of times in the past. And so, we've over probably the past two years have started to take assets that are in orbit that are already there doing things like the weather data collection and starting to operate them in a different way and then do a different type of processing on it to be able to do things like detection of GNSS jamming and then geolocation.
是的,所以我想您可能已經聽過我們多次談論射頻地理定位。因此,大概在過去的兩年裡,我們開始利用已經在軌道上運行的資產來收集天氣數據,並開始以不同的方式操作它們,然後對其進行不同類型的處理,以便能夠執行諸如檢測 GNSS 幹擾和地理定位等操作。
And so as we started to see growth in that market, we started to see greater urgency of demand for that type of data, especially as the geopolitical situation has continued to change. And at the same time, there are very few other players that are able to collect this type of data in the commercial market. And on the government side, this has been listed as one of the data types for commercialization. It started off with kind of large purchases on the satellite imagery side, and this one is on the list, so a little bit far behind from imaging, but we expect to be coming up, and they've already started buying, and that will grow in the future, as well as the demand that we're starting to see from non-US type of buyers.
因此,當我們開始看到該市場的成長時,我們開始看到對此類數據的需求變得更加緊迫,特別是在地緣政治局勢持續變化的情況下。同時,在商業市場上能夠收集此類數據的其他參與者非常少。而在政府方面,這已被列為商業化的資料類型之一。它始於對衛星圖像方面的大量採購,而這一項也在清單上,因此比成像稍微落後了一點,但我們預計它會出現,他們已經開始購買,並且未來還會增長,同時我們也開始看到來自非美國買家的需求。
So we've made the effort to take this from an R&D initiative and really put it together so that the people working on it, the focus that it gets, the duty cycle that it gets across the constellation has a very specific focus that will allow us to keep growing and actually meeting the demand that we're seeing now in the market. And this is an area that I think is very interesting for Spire. It's one where there are not a lot of other players who have assets in orbit that are able to do this type of collection and is going to be an area that continues to grow for us.
因此,我們努力將其從研發計劃中剝離出來,並真正地整合在一起,以便從事該工作的人員、它所獲得的關注點、它在整個星座中的佔空比都有一個非常具體的重點,這將使我們能夠不斷發展,並真正滿足我們現在在市場上看到的需求。我認為這對 Spire 來說是一個非常有趣的領域。在這個領域,沒有太多其他參與者擁有在軌資產,能夠進行此類收集,這將是我們持續成長的一個領域。
Jeff Van Rhee - Analyst
Jeff Van Rhee - Analyst
That's great. Last one for me then. The commentary around increased defense spend, certainly a lot of talk and it definitely appears to be headed towards actual output in terms of incremental spend. I'm just curious if there's any other anecdotes or quantification in terms of what it's meant thus far in the pipeline? How that's just manifesting in your day-to-day discussions and cycles. Thanks.
那太棒了。對我來說這是最後一個了。關於增加國防開支的評論確實有很多,而且從增量開支的角度來看,它肯定是朝著實際產出的方向發展的。我只是好奇,就目前的情況來看,是否有其他軼事或量化資訊可以說明這一點?這如何在你們的日常討論和循環中體現出來。謝謝。
Theresa Condor - Chief Executive Officer
Theresa Condor - Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, I think, of course, it's going to take a little bit longer in Europe as everyone is starting to commit greater defense funds to see how those actually start happening and flowing. But one thing we have definitely seen, I would say, across the board and around the world, is much greater urgency in getting contracts signed and in understanding our capabilities and in seeing demo data of what we're able to do. So I think we have started to see the change already in what is coming.
是的,我認為,當然,在歐洲這還需要更長的時間,因為每個人都開始投入更多的國防資金,看看這些措施如何真正開始實施和流動。但我想說,我們確實看到一件事,那就是在全世界範圍內,簽署合約、了解我們的能力以及查看我們能夠做什麼的演示數據變得更加緊迫。所以我認為我們已經開始看到即將發生的變化。
Operator
Operator
Brian Kinstlinger, Alliance Global Partners.
聯盟全球合作夥伴 (Alliance Global Partners) 的 Brian Kinstlinger。
Brian Kinstlinger - Analyst
Brian Kinstlinger - Analyst
Great. Thanks so much. I think you made it clear the second half revenue ramp is from signed contracts and satellites that are going to have access to -- where customers all have access to data. So what I want to focus on is business development. I'm wondering, I know you haven't provided it, but can you quantify contract awards in 2024 for the non-maritime business, maybe what the pipeline is for 2025, and do you expect 2025 will be a stronger year of business development given the trends you talked about in Europe, or overall will it be weaker given what's going on in the US?
偉大的。非常感謝。我想你已經明確表示了,下半年的收入成長來自於簽署的合約和衛星,這些合約和衛星將可以存取數據,所有客戶都可以存取數據。因此我想要重點關注的是業務發展。我想知道,我知道您沒有提供,但您能否量化 2024 年非海事業務的合約授予,也許 2025 年的計劃是什麼,考慮到您談到的歐洲趨勢,您是否預計 2025 年將是業務發展更強勁的一年,或者考慮到美國的情況,整體而言會比較弱?
Theresa Condor - Chief Executive Officer
Theresa Condor - Chief Executive Officer
I think in general I'm expecting it to be stronger on a year by year basis. We are always having a growth in sales, which of course you then start to see as growth in the revenue numbers. So it will be greater order intake and greater sales expectation for 2025, which is something that we always see on a year-on-year basis.
我認為總體來說,我預計它會逐年變得更加強勁。我們的銷售額一直在成長,當然,你會開始看到收入數字的成長。因此,2025 年的訂單量和銷售預期將會更大,這也是我們逐年看到的現象。
Thomas Krywe - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Principal Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer
Thomas Krywe - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Principal Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer
(multiple speakers) -- No, I was going to say, just to add on. I mean, obviously this growth is not only going to flow in from the space services side, like we mentioned with the contracts now starting to flow in, but as Theresa mentioned, the RFGL area is going to see, obviously, pick up and growth over the course of time, the more and more satellites we launch that have that capability, the better opportunity we have on the revenue front with that avenue, too.
(多位發言者)——不,我本來想說,只是補充一下。我的意思是,顯然這種增長不僅會來自太空服務方面,就像我們提到的現在開始流入的合約一樣,而且正如 Theresa 提到的,RFGL 領域顯然會隨著時間的推移而回暖和增長,我們發射的具有這種能力的衛星越多,我們通過這種渠道在收入方面獲得的機會就越大。
Theresa Condor - Chief Executive Officer
Theresa Condor - Chief Executive Officer
And I think your other question, Brian, I think we're going to see this on both sides of the pond.
布萊恩,我想你的另一個問題是,我認為我們會在大西洋兩岸看到這種情況。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. And also, this concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. We do thank you for your participation.
謝謝。女士們、先生們,我們的問答環節已經結束。今天的會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開您的線路。我們非常感謝您的參與。