標普全球 (SPGI) 2020 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to S&P Global's Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. I'd like to inform you that this call is being recorded for broadcast. (Operator Instructions)

早安，歡迎參加 S&P Global 2020 年第三季財報電話會議。在此提醒各位，本次電話會議將錄音以供播出。(接線員指示)

I would now like to introduce Mr. Chip Merritt, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations for S&P Global. Sir, you may begin.

現在我想介紹 S&P Global 投資人關係資深副總裁 Chip Merritt 先生。先生，您可以開始了。

Great. Thank you, and thank you for joining us today for S&P Global's Third Quarter Earnings Call. Presenting on today's call are Doug Peterson, President and CEO; and Ewout Steenbergen, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We issued a news release with our third quarter 2020 results earlier today. If you need a copy of the release and financial schedules, they can be downloaded at investor.spglobal.com.

很好。謝謝，也感謝各位今天加入 S&P Global 第三季財報電話會議。今天出席並發言的有總裁兼執行長 Doug Peterson，以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Ewout Steenbergen。我們今天稍早已發布 2020 年第三季業績新聞稿。如需新聞稿與財務附表，可至 investor.spglobal.com 下載。

In today's earnings release and during the conference call, we're providing adjusted financial information. This information is provided to enable investors to make meaningful comparisons of the corporation's operating performance between periods and to review the corporation's business from the same perspective as management's.

在今天的財報新聞稿以及本次電話會議中，我們提供經調整後的財務資訊。提供此資訊是為了讓投資人能在不同期間之間對本公司營運表現進行有意義的比較，並以與管理階層相同的視角檢視本公司的業務。

The earnings release contains exhibits that reconcile the difference between the non-GAAP measures and the comparable financial measures calculated in accordance with U.S. GAAP. This call, especially the discussion of our outlook, contains statements about expected future events that are forward-looking and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations can be found in our filings with the SEC and on our website.

財報新聞稿包含附表，用以調節非 GAAP 指標與依美國 GAAP 計算之可比較財務指標之間的差異。本次電話會議（尤其是我們對前景的討論）包含對預期未來事件的陳述，屬於前瞻性陳述，並受風險與不確定性影響。可能導致實際結果與預期有重大差異的因素，請參閱我們向 SEC 提交的文件以及我們的網站。

Before we begin, I need to provide certain cautionary remarks about forward-looking statements. Except for historical information, the matters discussed in the teleconference may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including projections, estimates and descriptions of future events. Any such statements are based on current expectations and current economic conditions and are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from results anticipated in these forward-looking statements. In this regard, we direct listeners to the cautionary statements contained in our Form 10-Ks, 10-Qs and other periodic reports filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

在開始之前，我需要就前瞻性陳述提供若干警示性說明。除歷史資訊外，本次電話會議所討論事項可能包含《1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法》所定義的前瞻性陳述，包括預測、估計及對未來事件的描述。任何此類陳述均基於目前的預期與當前經濟狀況，並受風險與不確定性影響，可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述所預期的結果有重大差異。就此，我們提醒聽眾參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交之 Form 10-K、10-Q 及其他定期報告中所載的警示性陳述。

I would also like to call your attention to a European regulation. Any investor who has or expects to obtain ownership of 5% or more of S&P Global should give me a call to better understand the impact of this legislation on the investor and potentially the company.

我也想提醒各位注意一項歐洲法規。任何已持有或預期取得 S&P Global 5% 或以上所有權的投資人，請致電與我聯繫，以更了解該法規對投資人以及可能對本公司的影響。

We are aware that we do have some media representatives with us on the call. However, this call is intended for investors, and we would ask that questions from the media be directed to Dave Guarino at (212) 438-1471.

我們知道本次電話會議中也有一些媒體代表與會。不過，本次電話會議主要是提供投資人參與；我們也請媒體的提問改向 Dave Guarino 洽詢，電話 (212) 438-1471。

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Doug Peterson. Doug?

接下來，我想把電話會議交給 Doug Peterson。Doug？

Thank you, Chip. Good morning, and welcome to today's earnings call.

謝謝你，Chip。早安，歡迎參加今天的財報電話會議。

Before I talk about our third quarter financial highlights, I want to thank our people at S&P Global for their dedication and commitment in these extremely unusual and challenging times. Our people remain focused on supporting each other, our customers and our communities through this ongoing pandemic. And I've been impressed with how our people have been deploying relevant and timely research to help our clients navigate the uncertainty of the pandemic. We're fortunate that the vast majority of our employees can work remotely and continue to deliver the highest value to our customers.

在我談第三季財務重點之前，我想感謝 S&P Global 的同仁在這段極不尋常且充滿挑戰的時期所展現的投入與承諾。在這場持續的疫情期間，我們的同仁仍專注於彼此支持、支持客戶並回饋社區。我也對同仁如何提供相關且即時的研究，協助客戶因應疫情帶來的不確定性，印象深刻。我們很幸運，絕大多數員工都能遠端工作，並持續為客戶提供最高價值。

Now let me begin with our third quarter financial highlights. S&P Global continues to perform well in the current environment, and all 4 businesses delivered revenue growth. Ratings once again delivered the strongest revenue growth, in part due to a 94% increase in U.S. high-yield issuance. During our first quarter earnings call, we explained the expense controls we're putting in place to manage through the pandemic. Based on the strong performance we have delivered year-to-date, we've begun to unwind some of these controls. Most importantly, we've begun hiring again in open positions. In addition, our incentive accruals were increased substantially during the third quarter to reflect this strong performance. And we're pleased to increase our full year 2020 guidance by $0.50 to $0.55, which Ewout will discuss in a moment.

接下來我先從第三季財務重點開始。在目前環境下，S&P Global 持續表現良好，四大業務皆實現營收成長。評級業務再次帶來最強勁的營收成長，部分原因是美國高收益債發行量增加了 94%。在第一季財報電話會議中，我們說明了為因應疫情而採取的費用控管措施。基於我們今年迄今的強勁表現，我們已開始逐步解除其中部分控管。最重要的是，我們已開始針對空缺職位重新招募。此外，我們在第三季大幅提高了獎酬提列，以反映這項強勁表現。我們也很高興將 2020 年全年財測上調 0.50 至 0.55 美元，Ewout 稍後會進一步說明。

I'd also like to share some additional highlights from the third quarter. Our investment in growth initiative continues to result in new product launches, additional data sets and new technology enhancements. We've made great progress across all 4 divisions in ESG as our recently launched products are gaining traction in the market.

我也想分享第三季的一些其他重點。我們對成長的投資計畫持續帶來新產品上市、更多資料集以及新的技術強化。在 ESG 方面，我們在四大事業部均取得重大進展，因為我們近期推出的產品正逐步在市場上獲得採用與動能。

We also continue to be committed to running our operations in the most cost-effective manner. And we're introducing a new $120 million productivity program today, which Ewout will discuss in a moment. We recently refinanced a portion of our outstanding debt, extending maturities at lower rates. And we continue to design and reimagine the workplace of the future by incorporating technology solutions to transform how we serve our customers, where we work and how we work. The project is still underway, and we hope to share the outcome with you on the fourth quarter earnings call.

我們也持續致力於以最具成本效益的方式營運。今天我們將推出一項新的 1.2 億美元生產力提升計畫，Ewout 稍後會說明。我們近期為部分未償債務進行再融資，以較低利率延長到期年限。我們也持續透過導入科技解決方案，設計並重新想像未來的工作場所，以改變我們服務客戶的方式、工作的地點以及工作的方式。該專案仍在進行中，我們希望在第四季財報電話會議上與各位分享成果。

To recap the financial results for the third quarter, revenue increased 9% to $1.8 billion. Our adjusted operating profit increased 11%, and our adjusted operating profit margin increased 100 basis points to 52.9%, and this was despite a catch-up to our incentive compensation accrual of over $50 million. As you know, we measure and track adjusted operating profit margin on a trailing 4-quarter basis, which increased 370 basis points to 53.8%. In addition, shares outstanding decreased 2% over the past year, contributing to the 16% increase in adjusted diluted EPS.

回顧第三季財務結果，營收成長 9% 至 18 億美元。經調整後營業利益成長 11%，經調整後營業利益率提升 100 個基點至 52.9%；即便如此，這仍是在我們對獎酬提列進行超過 5,000 萬美元的追補（catch-up）之後達成的。如各位所知，我們以過去四季（rolling 4-quarter）為基礎衡量並追蹤經調整後營業利益率，該指標提升 370 個基點至 53.8%。此外，過去一年流通在外股數下降 2%，也促成經調整後稀釋每股盈餘（EPS）成長 16%。

Each quarter, we highlight a few key drivers to our business and important projects underway. This quarter, let's start with ratings issuance trends. During the third quarter, global bond issuance increased 7%. If we also include bank loan ratings volume, total global issuance increased 4%.

每一季，我們都會重點說明幾項業務的關鍵驅動因素以及正在推進的重要專案。本季先從評級發行趨勢談起。第三季全球債券發行量增加 7%。若同時納入銀行貸款評級量，全球總發行量增加 4%。

Here are some key points regarding third quarter issuance. First, the further we get from the March credit sell-off, the more investors have been purchasing weaker credits. Second, yields on U.S. nonfinancial corporate debt are in near all-time lows, bringing issuers into the market. In fact, there were 2 large investment-grade corporates that issued debt in September to replace debt they'd just issued in March.

以下是關於第三季發行的一些重點。第一，距離 3 月信用市場拋售潮越久，投資人越多買進較弱的信用標的。第二，美國非金融企業債殖利率接近歷史低點，促使發行人進入市場。事實上，9 月有兩家大型投資級企業發行債務，用以替換它們在 3 月才剛發行的債務。

And third, despite the strong U.S. issuance that has occurred in the last few quarters, we've identified more than 60 issuers that had issued at least $5 billion between 2017 and 2019 that have not tapped the bond market this year. They're on the what we call our "what are you waiting for" list.

第三，儘管過去幾季美國發行量強勁，我們仍辨識出超過 60 家發行人：它們在 2017 至 2019 年間各自至少發行過 50 億美元，但今年尚未進入債券市場。它們在我們所稱的「你還在等什麼」名單上。

Turning to the data, in the U.S., bond issuance in aggregate increased 9% as investment-grade decreased 5%, high yield increased 94%, public finance increased 25%, reaching the highest third quarter issuance in the last 10 years. And structured finance decreased 12% with large reductions in CLOs and CMBS, partially offset by a gain in ABS.

轉向數據，在美國，整體債券發行量增加9%，其中投資級下降5%、高收益上升94%、公共融資上升25%，創下過去10年第三季發行量新高。而結構性融資下降12%，CLO與CMBS大幅減少，部分被ABS的增長所抵銷。

European bond issuance decreased 8% as investment-grade decreased 7%, high-yield increased 3%, and structured finance decreased 17% due to reductions in every asset class except RMBS, which posted a large increase. In Asia, bond issuance increased 19% overall.

歐洲債券發行量下降8%，其中投資級下降7%、高收益上升3%，而結構性融資下降17%，原因是除RMBS外各資產類別均出現下滑；RMBS則錄得大幅增長。在亞洲，債券發行量整體上升19%。

During the quarter, Ratings completed 5 domestic ratings in China, bringing the total to date to 18. In addition, the PBOC, CSRC and SAFE jointly released a draft policy to attract international investors to the domestic bond market on September 2, which indicates another round of opening of China's capital markets. The draft policy includes suggested actions to simplify the market access process, integrate access to the interbank bond market and exchange bond market and reduce foreign exchange control.

本季，評級業務在中國完成5項境內評級，使迄今累計達到18項。此外，人民銀行（PBOC）、中國證監會（CSRC）與國家外匯管理局（SAFE）於9月2日聯合發布一份政策草案，旨在吸引國際投資者進入境內債券市場，這表明中國資本市場新一輪對外開放。該政策草案包含建議措施，包括簡化市場准入流程、打通銀行間債券市場與交易所債券市場的准入並降低外匯管制。

There are 2 major bond markets in China. One is the interbank market, where we received a license to operate from the PBOC in 2019. The other is the exchange market, which is regulated by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. Just last week, we successfully filed a registration with the CSRC to rate products on Chinese exchange bond markets. This means we have the widest remit of any wholly foreign-owned credit rating agency in the market and one that is on par with the domestic players.

中國有兩個主要的債券市場。其一是銀行間市場，我們於2019年獲得人民銀行（PBOC）核發的經營許可。其二是交易所市場，由中國證監會監管。就在上週，我們已成功向證監會（CSRC）完成登記備案，可對中國交易所債券市場的產品進行評級。這意味著我們是在該市場中授權範圍最廣的外商獨資信用評級機構，且與本土機構處於同等水準。

Bank loan rating activity is not captured in issuance data. Since it's an important element of Ratings revenue, we like to disclose this bank loan rating revenue each quarter. In the third quarter, it decreased 28% from the prior period to $58 million. High-yield bonds were clearly the preferred option for issuers again this quarter.

銀行貸款評級活動未納入發行數據。由於這是評級業務收入的重要組成部分，我們每季都會披露銀行貸款評級收入。第三季該收入較上一期下降28%至5,800萬美元。本季發行人顯然再次偏好高收益債券。

On this slide, we look at the total amount of global debt outstanding. As you can see, it's been growing every year by an average of $884 billion or approximately 5%. In the first 9 months of this year, the amount of global debt outstanding increased by over $1.2 billion, clearly a significant increase.

在這張投影片中，我們觀察全球未償債務總量。如你所見，其每年平均增加8,840億美元，約為5%的增幅。今年前9個月，全球未償債務總量增加超過12億美元，顯然是一次顯著的增長。

This is a slide that we have shared with you in the past. What is noticeably different is that the duration of newly issued U.S. investment-grade and high-yield bonds have diverged in 2020, with investment-grade duration extending out to almost 13 years and high-yield contracting to close to 7 years. While many companies would like to extend maturities to take advantage of historically low rates, only the higher-quality credits are able to do so. As the total amount of U.S. investment-grade debt outstanding has increased significantly in 2020, most of that increase has come from longer-dated maturities, while the volume of debt outstanding with maturities of 1 to 5 years is similar to what it was in early 2020.

這張投影片我們過去曾與各位分享。明顯不同之處在於，2020年新發行的美國投資級與高收益債券的存續期間出現分化：投資級延長至接近13年，而高收益縮短至接近7年。雖然許多公司希望利用歷史低利率延長到期年限，但只有信用品質較高的發行人能夠做到。由於2020年美國投資級未償債務總量大幅增加，其中大部分增量來自較長到期的期限；而到期在1至5年的未償債務規模，與2020年初相近。

Next, we analyze upcoming maturity data from different points in time. As you can see, approximately 9% of 2021 maturities have been refinanced year-to-date. While this is global data, if we look at the U.S. data, we find that in the full year of 2019, maturities coming due the following year in 2020 were reduced by 15%, while in the first 9 months of 2020, maturities coming due in the following year in 2021 were reduced by 18%.

接下來，我們從不同時間點分析即將到期的數據。如你所見，2021年到期的債務中，約9%今年迄今已完成再融資。雖然這是全球數據，但若看美國數據，我們發現：2019年全年，原本將於次年（2020年）到期的債務到期量被降低了15%；而在2020年前9個月，原本將於次年（2021年）到期的債務到期量被降低了18%。

So part of the flurry of issuance in the last 2 quarters has included a slight increase in the pull forward of near-term debt. The big unknown is how much delayed pull-forward exists. An example would be a company that issued new debt to increase liquidity and is sitting on the cash. There may be a point when a bond maturity comes due in the next year or 2, and they use this cash to pay it down. However, the real question is, will they still have the cash on hand or will they have burned through the cash during the pandemic? That will depend on the individual company and the impact of the pandemic on that company. So we conclude there has been a slight increase in pull-forward activity of 2021 maturities. More pronounced is the surge in new issuance that has created an uptick in the growth of total global corporate debt.

因此，過去兩季發行激增的一部分，包含了對短期到期債務「提前處理」（pull forward）的些微增加。最大的未知數是，存在多少被延後的提前處理。例如，一家公司發行新債以提高流動性，並將現金留在帳上。當未來一到兩年內有債券到期時，他們可能會用這筆現金償還。然而，真正的問題是：他們屆時是否仍持有這些現金，或是在疫情期間已將現金消耗殆盡？這將取決於個別公司以及疫情對該公司的影響。因此我們的結論是：2021年到期債務的提前處理活動略有增加。更為明顯的是，新發行激增推動全球企業未償債務總量的增長加速。

Turning to our investments in growth initiatives, let me start with ESG. We've been providing the market with data and insights on sustainability for over 20 years. But over the past few years and now during the pandemic, we see increasing and accelerating demand for clear, consistent and comprehensive ESG data and solutions. And we have an ESG strategy based off of leading products across all 4 divisions.

轉向我們在成長計畫上的投資，我先從ESG談起。我們已為市場提供永續相關的數據與洞見超過20年。但在過去幾年，並且在疫情期間，我們看到市場對清晰、一致且全面的ESG數據與解決方案的需求持續上升並加速。我們的ESG策略建立在四大事業部門的領先產品之上。

In Ratings in the second quarter, 15 ESG evaluations were completed or in progress. In the third quarter, it was up to 61. In the second quarter, we completed 3 Green Evaluations. And in the third quarter, we completed 13. In Market Intelligence, we recently launched the S&P Global ESG Scores and have closed 7 deals to date. In Indices, we had $6.1 billion of ESG ETF AUM at the end of last year. As of the end of the third quarter, it was up over 50% to $9.5 billion.

在評級業務方面，第二季完成或進行中的ESG評估為15項。第三季提升至61項。第二季我們完成3項綠色評估（Green Evaluations）。第三季完成13項。在市場情報（Market Intelligence）方面，我們近期推出S&P Global ESG Scores，迄今已完成7筆交易。在指數（Indices）方面，去年底ESG ETF資產管理規模（AUM）為61億美元。截至第三季末，該規模上升逾50%至95億美元。

In addition, let me highlight a few other new products. Last quarter, we shared with you that our Trucost climate data has been integrated into our portfolio analytics product. We have since integrated the full suite of Trucost data into the Market Intelligence platform. We have now successfully made all of our Trucost data available through all of our distribution avenues, which include the Market Intelligence platform, Xpressfeed and the cloud. If you'd like to better understand what content is available, it's showcased on the S&P Global Marketplace. Now our clients can combine the Trucost data with other S&P Global data for a more integrated customer experience.

此外，我再強調幾項其他新產品。上一季我們曾與各位分享，Trucost氣候數據已整合至我們的投資組合分析產品中。此後，我們已將Trucost的完整數據套件整合至Market Intelligence平台。我們現已成功透過所有分發管道提供全部Trucost數據，包括Market Intelligence平台、Xpressfeed以及雲端。若你想更了解可取得的內容，可在S&P Global Marketplace上查看展示。現在客戶可將Trucost數據與其他S&P Global數據結合，獲得更整合的客戶體驗。

In building a powerful benchmark, establishing a network effect is critical. To that end, we had 2 new launches of products based on the S&P 500 ESG Index, a State Street ETF and CBOE options. (technical difficulty) ESG ETFs, futures and options and insurance products all reinforce each other to make the S&P 500 ESG Index more relevant to the market.

在打造具影響力的基準指數時，建立網路效應至關重要。為此，我們推出了兩項以S&P 500 ESG指數為基礎的新產品：一檔State Street ETF以及CBOE期權。（技術問題）ESG ETF、期貨與期權以及保險產品彼此相互強化，使S&P 500 ESG指數對市場更具相關性。

Lyxor launched 4 new climate ETFs based on S&P Dow Jones Paris-aligned climate indices. The ETFs will integrate the greenhouse gas emissions of the entire value chain of any given company while also taking the physical risk to business activity from extreme climate events into account.

Lyxor推出4檔以S&P道瓊巴黎對齊（Paris-aligned）氣候指數為基礎的新氣候ETF。這些ETF將納入任何特定公司整個價值鏈的溫室氣體排放，同時也會將極端氣候事件對商業活動造成的實體風險納入考量。

Platts launched the first European price assessment for sustainable aviation fuel. Sustainable aviation fuel is produced from used cooking oil and can be blended with conventional fossil-based aviation fuel.

Platts 推出了首個歐洲永續航空燃料的價格評估。永續航空燃料由廢食用油製成，並可與傳統的化石燃料航空燃油混合使用。

The energy transition consolidated product that was launched on the Platts platform is unique in that it spans across multiple commodities. Platts has been covering energy transition topics for over 15 years. Users who once had to navigate through numerous platforms and market reports, can now find this information in a single location.

在 Platts 平台上推出的能源轉型整合產品，其獨特之處在於涵蓋多種大宗商品。Platts 對能源轉型議題的報導已超過 15 年。過去使用者必須在眾多平台與市場報告之間切換，如今可在單一位置取得這些資訊。

We've had an incredible year of innovation and product launches. Let me highlight a few more that occurred this quarter. Market Intelligence launched ProSpread. This is a remarkable product that many of you might find valuable as it eliminates the time-consuming process of manual input of financial statement data into your workspace. ProSpread is a workflow tool that automates the extraction and spreading of financial data from PDF, JPEG and other image files. Optical character recognition, natural language processing and machine learning are combined to drive extraction from even poor quality PDFs or image files in 9 languages. Continuous learning ensures manual adjustments are applied seamlessly to future filings.

我們在創新與產品推出方面度過了極為出色的一年。我再強調幾項本季發生的重點。Market Intelligence 推出了 ProSpread。這是一項卓越的產品，許多人可能會覺得很有價值，因為它免除了將財務報表資料手動輸入工作區的耗時流程。ProSpread 是一款工作流程工具，可自動從 PDF、JPEG 及其他影像檔案中擷取並展開（spreading）財務資料。它結合光學字元辨識、自然語言處理與機器學習，即使是品質不佳的 PDF 或影像檔，也能以 9 種語言進行擷取。持續學習機制可確保人工調整能無縫套用至未來的申報文件。

Next, we have continued our expansion of the coverage of SMEs. This quarter, we added data on 10 million European private company profiles with standardized financials to the Market Intelligence platform.

接下來，我們持續擴大對中小企業（SMEs）的覆蓋。本季我們在 Market Intelligence 平台新增了 1,000 萬家歐洲私人公司檔案的資料，並提供標準化財務資訊。

On our first quarter call, we featured the launch of the S&P Global Marketplace, our new open access platform where clients can browse and gain access to data sets from all 4 of our divisions as well as curated third-party data and solutions from Kensho. This quarter, we reached the milestone of 100 data sets and solutions. We have also completed sales contracts with approximately 50 clients.

在第一季電話會議中，我們介紹了 S&P Global Marketplace 的推出；這是我們新的開放存取平台，客戶可在此瀏覽並取得來自我們四個事業部的資料集，以及精選的第三方資料與 Kensho 的解決方案。本季我們達成 100 個資料集與解決方案的里程碑。我們也已與約 50 位客戶完成銷售合約。

During the quarter, we completed an enterprise-wide contract with Snowflake. Cloud-based delivery enables customers to simplify their data management and work with multiple large data sets more efficiently. Since Snowflake is cloud-agnostic, the data on the S&P Global Marketplace is ready to query and is easily accessible via multiple cloud platforms.

本季期間，我們與 Snowflake 完成了一項全企業合約。雲端交付讓客戶能簡化資料管理，並更有效率地處理多個大型資料集。由於 Snowflake 不依賴特定雲端（cloud-agnostic），S&P Global Marketplace 上的資料可直接查詢，並可透過多個雲端平台輕鬆存取。

We released a beta version of the China Credit Analytics platform. This is an integrated desktop solution that generates credit insights on more than 30 million Chinese private companies using differentiated content and localized analytics aligned with S&P Global standard. The platform is available through a dual-language user interface that supports both Chinese and English.

我們發布了 China Credit Analytics 平台的 Beta 版本。這是一套整合式桌面解決方案，運用差異化內容與符合 S&P Global 標準的在地化分析，為超過 3,000 萬家中國民營企業產出信用洞察。該平台提供雙語使用者介面，同時支援中文與英文。

The CME Group launched a cash-settled Platts South American soybean futures contract, which provides a risk management tool for market participants looking to hedge. The CME Group also launched a new long grain white rice futures contract.

CME 集團推出以現金結算的 Platts 南美大豆期貨合約，為希望進行避險的市場參與者提供風險管理工具。CME 集團也推出新的長粒白米期貨合約。

As you know from earlier this year, we acquired Live Rice Index. One of the synergies of acquiring small price reporting agencies is that we are already IOSCO-compliant. This helps us with the CME Group's decision to list this new futures contract.

如同各位今年稍早所知，我們收購了 Live Rice Index。收購小型價格報導機構的協同效益之一，是我們已符合 IOSCO 規範。這有助於 CME 集團決定掛牌這項新的期貨合約。

And finally, we're piloting a microgrid called Distro at the Port of Rotterdam for renewable energy. Distro is a marketplace that connects renewable energy and storage with energy users. It utilizes artificial intelligence and blockchain technology to solve the problem of intermittent renewable energy. It's great to be able to showcase how Platts is bringing its core capabilities in pricing, empowering energy markets to the unique landscape being created by the energy transition.

最後，我們正在鹿特丹港試行一個名為 Distro 的再生能源微電網。Distro 是一個市場平台，將再生能源與儲能連結至能源使用者。它運用人工智慧與區塊鏈技術，解決再生能源間歇性的問題。我們很高興能展示 Platts 如何將其在定價方面的核心能力帶入能源轉型所創造的獨特環境，並賦能能源市場。

Next, I would like to provide additional information as we plan for 2021. Let me start with the issuance outlook from our Ratings research group. The initial 2020 forecast was for an increase of 5%, excluding international public finance. It now calls for an increase of 13%. So after issuance growth of 15% in 2019 and a forecast of 13% in 2020, our Ratings research group anticipates that issuance will decrease 3% in 2021. While the forecast calls for a 5% gain in financials, nonfinancials, structured and U.S. municipals issuance are expected to decrease 9%, 6% and 1%, respectively. Please note that this is an issuance forecast, not a revenue forecast.

接下來，我想在我們規劃 2021 年之際提供更多資訊。我先從我們評級研究團隊對發行量的展望談起。2020 年初始預測為成長 5%，不含國際公共融資。目前則上調為成長 13%。因此，在 2019 年發行量成長 15%、2020 年預測成長 13% 之後，我們的評級研究團隊預期 2021 年發行量將下滑 3%。雖然預測金融類發行量將成長 5%，但非金融類、結構型產品與美國市政債發行量預期將分別下滑 9%、6% 與 1%。請注意，這是發行量預測，而非營收預測。

As you see here, our economists forecast global GDP to resume growth in 2021 after a decline in 2020. While the correlation between GDP and issuance was severed by the pandemic, we expect the long-term correlation to remain intact.

如各位在此所見，我們的經濟學家預測全球 GDP 在 2020 年下滑後，將於 2021 年恢復成長。雖然疫情使 GDP 與發行量之間的相關性被切斷，但我們預期長期相關性仍將維持。

Our economists acknowledge a high degree of uncertainty about the evolution of the coronavirus pandemic. The current consensus among health experts is that COVID-19 will remain a threat until a vaccine or effective treatment becomes widely available, which could be around mid-2021. The forecast anticipates unevenness in recovery, both by country and by industry.

我們的經濟學家也承認，對於新冠疫情的演變仍存在高度不確定性。目前健康專家的共識是，在疫苗或有效治療廣泛可得之前，COVID-19 仍將構成威脅，時間點可能落在 2021 年年中左右。該預測預期復甦將呈現不均衡，無論在國家之間或產業之間皆然。

As you've seen, we performed well during the pandemic and see business conditions in 2021 that should favor continued relevance of what we do across every business. But as I wrap up my remarks, I want to remind investors that despite the strong performance we've been delivering in the midst of the pandemic, we continue to monitor the macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape for risks and contingencies that could impact markets, our clients and possibly our company. These include the ongoing impact of the pandemic on business activity and the timing of approval and delivery of a vaccine; the speed of economic recovery across national and regional economies; the U.S. policy environment after the election, including bilateral and multilateral international relationships; public sector economic support through fiscal stimulus and central bank liquidity and interest rate policies; credit market characteristics; and commodity market supply, demand and prices.

如各位所見，我們在疫情期間表現良好，並看到 2021 年的商業環境將有利於我們在各項業務中持續保持相關性。但在我結束發言之際，我想提醒投資人：儘管我們在疫情期間交出強勁表現，我們仍持續監測宏觀經濟與地緣政治環境中的風險與應變情境，這些因素可能影響市場、客戶，甚至可能影響本公司。這些因素包括：疫情對商業活動的持續影響，以及疫苗核准與交付的時程；各國與各區域經濟復甦速度；選後美國政策環境，包括雙邊與多邊國際關係；公共部門透過財政刺激與央行流動性及利率政策所提供的經濟支持；信用市場特性；以及商品市場的供給、需求與價格。

I will now turn the call over to Ewout Steenbergen, who is going to provide additional insights into our financial performance and outlook. Ewout?

接下來我將把電話會議交給 Ewout Steenbergen，他將就我們的財務表現與展望提供更多洞察。Ewout？

Thank you, Doug, and good morning to all of you on the call. Let me start with our third quarter financial results. Doug covered the highlights of strong revenue and adjusted earnings per share growth. I will take a moment to cover a few other items.

謝謝你，Doug，也向各位與會者道早安。我先從第三季財務結果談起。Doug 已說明營收強勁以及調整後每股盈餘成長的重點。我將花點時間補充幾個其他項目。

While some of the segments have a difference between reported and organic revenue growth, in aggregate, they are the same at 9%. Adjusted total expenses increased 7%. Excluding the acquisitions of Greenwich Associates, 451 Research and the RobecoSAM ESG Ratings business, expenses increased 5%. Much of this increase was due to a $54 million catch-up to our incentive compensation accruals based on our strong performance this year. In addition, we contributed $4 million to the S&P Global Foundation and increased our legal-related costs in indices.

雖然部分事業部門在申報口徑與有機營收成長之間存在差異，但合計而言兩者皆為 9%。調整後總費用增加 7%。若排除收購 Greenwich Associates、451 Research 與 RobecoSAM ESG Ratings 業務的影響，費用增加 5%。這項增加多數來自於基於今年強勁表現，我們對獎勵性薪酬應計項目補提了 5,400 萬美元。此外，我們向 S&P Global Foundation 捐助 400 萬美元，並提高了指數業務中與法律相關的成本。

As a management team, we took precautionary steps early in the pandemic to control expenses. Those actions, while mostly no longer in place, demonstrated our ability to dramatically reduce expenses when necessary without employee layoffs.

作為管理團隊，我們在疫情初期即採取預防性措施以控制費用。這些措施雖然多數已不再實施，但證明了我們在必要時能在不裁員的情況下大幅降低費用的能力。

Adjusted operating profit margin improved 100 basis points based on strong revenue growth that outpaced higher expenses. The increase in the effective tax rate was primarily due to the timing of discrete tax adjustments. While the effective tax rate fluctuates from quarter-to-quarter due to the timing of discrete tax items, our full year tax rate guidance has been lowered.

由於強勁的營收成長超過費用增幅，調整後營業利益率提升 100 個基點。有效稅率上升主要是由於一次性稅務調整項目的認列時點所致。雖然有效稅率會因一次性稅務項目的時點而在各季間波動，但我們已下調全年稅率指引。

During the quarter, changes in foreign exchange rates had a positive impact on adjusted EPS of $0.04. The only meaningful impacts were in Ratings and Market Intelligence, where adjusted operating profit was positively impacted by $10 million and $5 million, respectively.

在本季度，外匯匯率變動對調整後每股盈餘（adjusted EPS）帶來正面影響，增加0.04美元。唯一具實質意義的影響出現在Ratings與Market Intelligence，其中調整後營業利益分別增加1,000萬美元與500萬美元。

The non-GAAP adjustments this quarter collectively generated a net pretax loss of $311 million. They included: $279 million associated with premiums and fees paid to tender certain notes outstanding; $8 million in gains on dispositions, primarily from an office building in New Jersey and an IR web hosting business that was part of the SNL acquisition; $5 million associated with a technology-related impairment; $2 million for Kensho retention-related expenses; and $32 million in deal-related amortization.

本季度的非GAAP調整合計產生稅前淨損失3.11億美元。其內容包括：與支付溢價及費用以要約收購部分流通在外票據相關的2.79億美元；處分收益800萬美元，主要來自新澤西州的一棟辦公大樓以及SNL收購案中包含的一項IR網站代管業務；與技術相關的減損500萬美元；Kensho留任相關費用200萬美元；以及交易相關攤銷3,200萬美元。

This quarter, all 4 divisions delivered increased revenue, and 3 of the 4 delivered increased adjusted operating profit. On a trailing 4-quarter basis, adjusted operating profit margin increased significantly in Ratings and Platts, while Market Intelligence and Indices had small decreases. As we have discussed, Market Intelligence investment spending remains elevated. I'll provide color on the individual business results in a moment.

本季度，四個事業部門的營收皆成長，其中四個中的三個事業部門的調整後營業利益亦成長。以最近四個季度（trailing 4-quarter）為基礎，Ratings與Platts的調整後營業利益率顯著上升，而Market Intelligence與Indices則小幅下降。如我們先前所討論，Market Intelligence的投資支出仍維持在較高水準。我稍後將就各項業務的個別表現提供更多說明。

We recently took advantage of the low interest rate environment and refinanced a portion of our outstanding higher-interest-rate bonds with new lower interest rate bonds. The net results were an increase of about $200 million bonds outstanding, a decrease in annual bond interest expense of $26 million, a reduction in our weighted average cost of debt to 3.1% and an extension of our weighted average tenor to more than 18 years. In fact, our 40-year bond had the second-lowest coupon ever for a 40-year bond in the U.S., second only to Alphabet. And our 10-year bond carries the same coupon as Apple's.

我們近期把握低利率環境，將部分尚未到期的高利率債券以新的低利率債券進行再融資。淨結果為：流通在外債券增加約2億美元、年度債券利息費用減少2,600萬美元、加權平均負債成本降至3.1%，並將加權平均期限延長至18年以上。事實上，我們的40年期債券票息為美國40年期債券史上第二低，僅次於Alphabet。而我們的10年期債券票息與Apple相同。

Now turning to the balance sheet, our balance sheet has low leverage and ample liquidity. We have cash and cash equivalents of $3.2 billion, debt of $4.1 billion after our recent refinancing, an undrawn revolver capacity of $1.2 billion and no commercial paper outstanding. Our debt ratios remain unchanged despite the recent bond refinancing due to EBITDA growth.

接著看資產負債表，我們的槓桿偏低且流動性充裕。我們持有現金及約當現金32億美元，近期再融資後負債為41億美元，尚未動用的循環信貸額度為12億美元，且沒有任何商業本票（commercial paper）餘額。由於EBITDA成長，儘管近期進行債券再融資，我們的負債比率仍維持不變。

Free cash flow, excluding certain items, reached $2.2 billion in the first 9 months of the year, an increase of $593 million or 36% over the prior year period. We completed $11 million of share repurchases under the share repurchase program initiated in February 2020.

排除特定項目後，自由現金流在今年前九個月達到22億美元，較去年同期增加5.93億美元或36%。我們已在2020年2月啟動的庫藏股回購計畫下完成1,100萬美元的股票回購。

In light of our strong liquidity and increased cash flow, we continue to monitor the status of our share repurchase program in consultation with our Board of Directors. Due to near-term market uncertainty, including the pending U.S. election, we're not resuming share repurchases at this point in time. However, we maintain our long-term target of returning at least 75% of free cash flow to shareholders, and we will continue to monitor the markets for the right time to resume share repurchases.

鑑於我們強勁的流動性與增加的現金流，我們持續在與董事會諮詢下監控庫藏股回購計畫的狀態。由於短期市場不確定性（包括即將到來的美國大選），我們目前不會恢復股票回購。然而，我們仍維持長期目標：至少將自由現金流的75%回饋給股東，並將持續觀察市場，以在適當時機恢復股票回購。

Now let's turn to the division results. Ratings revenue increased 13%. And excluding the acquisition of the ESG Ratings business from RobecoSAM and CRISIL's acquisition of Greenwich Associates, organic revenue increased 12%. This revenue growth was driven by the increase in issuance Doug already discussed.

接下來看各事業部門的表現。Ratings營收成長13%。若排除自RobecoSAM收購ESG Ratings業務以及CRISIL收購Greenwich Associates的影響，有機營收成長12%。此營收成長主要由Doug先前提到的發行量增加所帶動。

Adjusted expenses increased 9%. Excluding changes in foreign exchange rates, adjusted expenses increased 11% due primarily to increased incentive compensation, merit increases and additional headcount, primarily from the acquisition of the ESG Ratings business from RobecoSAM and CRISIL's acquisition of Greenwich Associates. In fact, over 1/3 of the expense increase was related to these acquisitions.

調整後費用增加9%。若排除外匯匯率變動影響，調整後費用增加11%，主要因激勵性薪酬增加、例行調薪，以及新增人力；新增人力主要來自自RobecoSAM收購ESG Ratings業務以及CRISIL收購Greenwich Associates。事實上，費用增幅超過三分之一與這些收購案相關。

This resulted in a 16% increase in adjusted segment operating profit and a 130 basis point increase in adjusted segment operating profit margin. On a trailing 4-quarter basis, adjusted segment operating profit margin increased 600 basis points to 63.4%.

因此，調整後分部營業利益增加16%，調整後分部營業利益率提升130個基點。以最近四個季度為基礎，調整後分部營業利益率上升600個基點至63.4%。

Nontransaction revenue increased 4%. Transaction revenue increased 22% due to very strong high-yield issuance in the U.S., gains in global sovereign debt and U.S. public finance, partially offset by weakness in bank loan ratings.

非交易型（nontransaction）營收成長4%。交易型（transaction）營收成長22%，主要因美國高收益債發行非常強勁、全球主權債與美國公共融資（public finance）表現提升；但部分被銀行貸款評級疲弱所抵銷。

This slide depicts Ratings revenue by end markets. The largest contributor to the increase in ratings revenue was the 16% increase in corporates. In addition, financial services revenue increased 6%, structured finance increased 4%, government increased 35%, and the CRISIL and other category increased 2%.

本頁投影片呈現Ratings依終端市場分類的營收。評級營收增加的最大貢獻來源為企業（corporates）成長16%。此外，金融服務營收成長6%，結構性融資成長4%，政府成長35%，CRISIL及其他類別成長2%。

It is not often that we highlight sovereign ratings revenue, but there was considerable growth this quarter as a number of countries, including Ecuador, the Dominican Republic, Croatia and Jordan tapped the debt markets. On the right side of the slide, you can see the changes in revenue within structured products. The largest changes were in RMBS and CMBS.

我們不常特別強調主權評級營收，但本季度成長相當可觀，因多個國家（包括厄瓜多、多明尼加共和國、克羅埃西亞與約旦）進入債務市場籌資。在投影片右側，您可以看到結構性產品內部的營收變動。變動幅度最大的是RMBS與CMBS。

Turning to S&P Dow Jones Indices, the segment delivered 1% revenue growth due primarily to gains in AUM linked to our indices and data subscriptions, partially offset by reduced exchange-traded derivative activity. In the third quarter, we reported a $12 million increase in adjusted expenses due primarily to increased legal-related costs, higher compensation from increased headcount and incentives, as well as higher professional fees.

接著看S&P Dow Jones Indices，本分部營收成長1%，主要來自與我們指數連結的資產管理規模（AUM）增加以及資料訂閱成長；但部分被交易所交易衍生性商品活動減少所抵銷。在第三季，我們的調整後費用增加1,200萬美元，主要因法律相關成本增加、因人力增加與激勵而提高的薪酬，以及較高的專業服務費用。

About $8 million of the $12 million is nonrecurring, a 7% decrease in adjusted segment operating profit and an adjusted segment operating profit margin of 65.2%, a decrease of 510 basis points. On a trailing 4-quarter basis, the adjusted segment operating profit margin decreased 40 basis points to 69%.

在這1,200萬美元中，約800萬美元屬一次性（nonrecurring）項目；調整後分部營業利益下降7%，調整後分部營業利益率為65.2%，下降510個基點。以最近四個季度為基礎，調整後分部營業利益率下降40個基點至69%。

Revenue growth was subdued this quarter. Asset-linked fees increased 2% with gains in ETFs and mutual funds, partially offset by decreased over-the-counter derivative activity. Exchange-traded derivative revenue decreased 7% on reduced trading volumes. Data and custom subscriptions increased 3% due to a modest increase in end-of-day and real-time ACV, partially offset by the timing of contract renewals.

本季度營收成長相對溫和。資產連結費用（asset-linked fees）成長2%，ETF與共同基金的增長部分被場外（over-the-counter）衍生性商品活動下降所抵銷。交易所交易衍生性商品營收因交易量下降而減少7%。資料與客製化訂閱成長3%，主要因收盤與即時ACV小幅增加，但部分被合約續約時點所抵銷。

For our Indices division, over the past year, ETF net inflows were $84 billion, and market appreciation was $92 billion. This resulted in quarter-ending ETF AUM of $1.7 trillion, which is 11% higher compared to 1 year ago. Our ETF revenue was based on average AUM, which increased 12% year-over-year. Sequentially versus the second quarter of 2020, ETF net inflows associated with our Indices totaled $5 billion, while market appreciation totaled $113 billion.

就我們的Indices事業部門而言，過去一年ETF淨流入為840億美元，市場增值為920億美元。因此，季末ETF資產管理規模（AUM）達1.7兆美元，較一年前高出11%。我們的ETF營收係以平均AUM為基礎計算，年增12%。若與2020年第二季相比（按季），與我們指數相關的ETF淨流入合計50億美元，而市場增值合計1,130億美元。

Activity at the CBOE decreased in the third quarter with S&P 500 Index options activity decreasing 22%, and fixed futures and options activity decreasing 38%. This was in contrast to increased activity at the CME, where the equity complex volume increased 38%. The majority of the gain at the CME was due to the successful launch of the Micro E-mini S&P 500 futures. Excluding this product, the volumes at the CME equity complex increased 4%.

第三季CBOE的活動下降，S&P 500指數選擇權活動量下降22%，固定收益期貨與選擇權活動量下降38%。這與CME活動增加形成對比，CME的股票相關產品（equity complex）交易量增加38%。CME增長的大部分來自成功推出Micro E-mini S&P 500期貨。若排除此產品，CME股票相關產品的交易量增加4%。

Market Intelligence delivered reported revenue growth of 9% and organic growth of 7%. While the COVID-19 pandemic continues to lengthen sales cycles, usage of our key platforms increased 11% year-over-year. Adjusted expenses increased 6% due primarily to acquisitions, compensation and royalties. In addition, investment spending continues and is beginning to pay off with some of the new product launches that Doug discussed.

Market Intelligence 錄得報告營收成長 9%，有機成長 7%。儘管 COVID-19 疫情持續拉長銷售週期，我們主要平台的使用量仍較去年同期增加 11%。調整後費用增加 6%，主要由於併購、薪酬與權利金所致。此外，我們持續投入投資支出，並開始透過 Doug 所提到的一些新產品上市看到成效。

Adjusted segment operating profit increased 14%, and the adjusted segment operating profit margin increased 160 basis points to 33.8%. On a trailing 4-quarter basis, adjusted segment operating profit margin decreased 10 basis points to 32.9%.

調整後分部營業利益增加 14%，調整後分部營業利益率提升 160 個基點至 33.8%。以過去 4 季為基礎，調整後分部營業利益率下降 10 個基點至 32.9%。

Looking across the Market Intelligence components, Desktop revenue grew 3%, excluding acquisitions and divestments. Data Management Solutions revenue grew 12%, and Credit Risk Solutions revenue grew 11%.

從 Market Intelligence 各組成部分來看，Desktop 營收在排除併購與處分影響後成長 3%。Data Management Solutions 營收成長 12%，Credit Risk Solutions 營收成長 11%。

And now turning to Platts, reported revenue increased 5%, with core subscriptions increasing 7% and Global Trading Services decreasing 6%. GTS revenue decreased mainly due to lower petroleum and gas volumes at ICE and CME. While the recession has reduced oil prices, putting cost pressure on many of our customers, bankruptcy filings are similar to recent years with 38 U.S. exploration and production company filings year-to-date. This compares to 42 in full year 2019 and 28 in 2018. Despite this pressure on the industry, we have maintained overall renewal rates in the mid-90s.

接著看 Platts，報告營收增加 5%，其中核心訂閱成長 7%，Global Trading Services 則下降 6%。GTS 營收下降主要是因 ICE 與 CME 的石油與天然氣交易量較低。雖然景氣衰退壓低油價，對許多客戶造成成本壓力，但破產申請件數與近年相近，今年迄今美國勘探與生產公司申請破產共 38 件。相較之下，2019 全年為 42 件，2018 年為 28 件。儘管產業承壓，我們仍將整體續約率維持在 90% 中段水準。

Adjusted expenses decreased 2% due to the divestiture of RigData and management actions. Adjusted segment operating profit margin increased 280 basis points to 55.7%. The trailing 4-quarter adjusted segment operating profit margin increased 300 basis points to 54.9%. The fastest-growing markets during the quarter were metals and ag at 12% and petrochemicals at 7%.

調整後費用因處分 RigData 及管理措施而下降 2%。調整後分部營業利益率提升 280 個基點至 55.7%。過去 4 季的調整後分部營業利益率提升 300 個基點至 54.9%。本季成長最快的市場為金屬與農產品（ag）成長 12%，以及石化成長 7%。

After completing our last productivity program in the second quarter, we have identified a number of additional opportunities to reduce future expenses. They can generally be grouped into 4 categories: real estate, procurement, T&E and IT infrastructure. We have already begun implementing the actions needed to realize these savings. However, it will take us 2 to 3 years to complete all of these items. When we have finished, we expect to realize approximately $120 million in annual savings from a 2019 baseline.

在第二季完成我們上一輪生產力計畫後，我們已辨識出多項可進一步降低未來費用的機會。大致可分為 4 類：不動產、採購、差旅與交際（T&E）以及 IT 基礎設施。我們已開始推動實現這些節省所需的行動。不過，完成所有項目將需要 2 到 3 年。完成後，我們預期以 2019 年為基準，每年可實現約 1.2 億美元的節省。

And now I would like to share our updated guidance with you. With only 1 quarter remaining in the year, there is no longer a need to share various scenarios. This slide depicts our new 2020 GAAP guidance. And this slide depicts our adjusted figures. The second column is our new 2020 adjusted guidance, and all of the line items that changed are highlighted.

接下來我想與各位分享我們更新後的財測指引。由於今年只剩 1 個季度，我們不再需要分享各種情境。這張投影片呈現我們新的 2020 年 GAAP 指引。而這張投影片呈現我們的調整後數字。第二欄是我們新的 2020 年調整後指引，所有有變動的項目都已標示。

Now let me review our new adjusted guidance. We increased our revenue guidance to a high single-digit increase. Corporate unallocated expense has been decreased by $10 million to a range of $125 million to $135 million. Operating profit margin is increased by 100 basis points to a range of 52.5% to 53.5%. Interest expense, net, includes both interest income and interest expense. It has been reduced by $7 million due to the recent changes in our outstanding bonds. The tax rate has been reduced due to tax benefits from foreign operations. These items result in a new adjusted diluted EPS guidance range of $11.30 to $11.45. And finally, free cash flow generation has been increased to approximately $2.9 billion.

現在我來回顧我們新的調整後指引。我們將營收指引上調至高個位數成長。公司未分攤費用下調 1,000 萬美元至 1.25 億至 1.35 億美元區間。營業利益率上調 100 個基點至 52.5% 至 53.5% 區間。淨利息費用（interest expense, net）同時包含利息收入與利息費用。由於近期我們流通在外債券的變動，該項下調 700 萬美元。稅率因海外營運帶來的稅務利益而下調。上述因素使調整後稀釋每股盈餘（EPS）指引區間更新為 11.30 至 11.45 美元。最後，自由現金流產生量上調至約 29 億美元。

In conclusion, 2020 is shaping up to be a very strong year for S&P Global. While the recession has crippled many industries and companies, our unique collection of businesses has continued to thrive. In addition, despite all of the hardship related to the pandemic, our employees have continued to deliver the highest-quality ratings, benchmarks, research data and analytics and delivered an unprecedented number of new product launches. As always, we remain committed to providing transparency for our investors to deliver essential intelligence for our customers and to support sustainable development in our communities.

總結而言，2020 年正逐步成為 S&P Global 非常強勁的一年。儘管景氣衰退重創許多產業與公司，我們獨特的業務組合仍持續蓬勃發展。此外，儘管疫情帶來各種艱難，我們的員工仍持續提供最高品質的評等、基準、研究數據與分析，並推出前所未有數量的新產品上市。一如既往，我們仍致力於為投資人提供透明度、為客戶提供關鍵情報，並支持社區的永續發展。

And with that, let me turn the call back over to Chip for your questions.

接下來，我把電話交回給 Chip 來回答各位的提問。

Thank you, Ewout. (Operator Instructions) Operator, we'll now take our first question.

謝謝你，Ewout。(接線員指示) 接線員，現在我們開始第一個問題。

Our first question comes from Toni Kaplan from Morgan Stanley.

第一個問題來自 Morgan Stanley 的 Toni Kaplan。

Doug, I loved the "what are you waiting for" list. Just wanted to ask about guidance. So last quarter, you made a point to say that the guidance increase was partially due to the higher expectations for the rest of the year. This quarter, it seems like the raise is more reflecting the 3Q beat. Is that fair? Or have your expectations improved for the rest of the year as well?

Doug，我很喜歡那份「你還在等什麼」清單。我想問一下關於財測指引。所以上一季你特別提到，指引上調部分是因為對今年剩餘期間的預期更高。這一季看起來，上調更像是反映第三季（3Q）的優於預期。這樣理解公平嗎？還是你們對今年剩餘期間的預期也有所改善？

Thank you for your comments, particularly on some of the analytics and the issuance environment, and the "what are you waiting for" list. If we look at the guidance, I think it's both reflecting improved performance during the third quarter as well as also slight improved outlook for the fourth quarter. We're definitely are more optimistic with respect to our business performance from the remainder -- for the remainder of the year.

謝謝你的評論，特別是關於部分分析業務與發行環境，以及「你還在等什麼」清單。如果我們看指引，我認為它同時反映第三季表現改善，也反映對第四季展望略有改善。對於今年剩餘期間的業務表現，我們確實更為樂觀。

We think that all businesses are doing well. You see the subscription businesses showing quite good results with respect to their renewal rates, with respect to the overall book of businesses going up. And you see that both for Platts and Market Intelligence.

我們認為所有業務表現都不錯。你可以看到訂閱型業務在續約率方面呈現相當好的結果，整體業務存量也在上升。Platts 與 Market Intelligence 都是如此。

If we look at the issuance environment for October, it has been quite reasonable in terms of continued activity. And then also, we expect the index business, that was facing certain particular more nonrecurring items in the third quarter, we would see that coming back in the fourth quarter as well. So overall, slight improvement for the fourth quarter in our guidance. So overall, therefore, we're quite happy that we could raise our guidance for adjusted EPS by $0.50 to $0.55.

如果看 10 月的發行環境，就持續活動而言相當合理。另外，我們也預期指數業務在第三季面臨某些較為特殊、較偏一次性的項目後，第四季會回復。因此，我們在指引中對第四季整體有些微改善。也因此，我們很高興能將調整後 EPS 指引上調 0.50 至 0.55 美元。

Great. And on the international side, international Ratings revenue performed really well in the quarter, and you provided some of the issuance metrics with Europe down 8%; Asia, 19%; growth up 22% in the quarter for the full international piece. Just hoping you could expand on what drove the revenue outperformance relative to issuance. Was it mix? Was it pricing? How do we think about that?

很好。另外在國際方面，國際評等（Ratings）營收本季表現非常好，你也提供了一些發行指標：歐洲下降 8%；亞洲下降 19%；但整體國際部分本季成長 22%。希望你能進一步說明，營收表現優於發行量的原因是什麼。是組合（mix）因素嗎？是定價嗎？我們應該如何理解？

And then I saw that in China, you completed the registration in China's exchange bond market yesterday. And just wanted to understand how that increases the opportunity for you in China and how quickly that can sort of take shape?

另外我看到你們昨天完成了在中國交易所債券市場的註冊。我想了解這如何提升你們在中國的機會，以及這件事大概多快能開始成形？

Toni, let me take the first part of your question. The 22% growth in international revenue for Ratings, 3 main drivers that are behind that.

Toni，我先回答你問題的第一部分。評等業務國際營收成長 22%，背後主要有 3 個驅動因素。

First, we saw investment-grade corporate issuance very strong in Asia Pacific. We saw increased high-yield issuance in Europe. And then also sovereign ratings was up in quite a strong way during the quarter. So those were the 3 drivers behind the international growth.

首先，我們看到亞太地區投資級公司債的發行非常強勁。我們看到歐洲高收益債的發行增加。此外，本季主權評等也以相當強勁的幅度上升。因此，這三項因素是國際業務成長的驅動力。

And Toni, let me give you some color on the China markets. As you know, there's 2 bond markets in China. There's the interbank bond market, and there's exchange bond market. One is -- the first one, the interbank market is approved by the PBOC. We received a license last year to operate issuing credit ratings there. And then this week, we received approval from the CSRC to also operate in the exchange bond market.

Toni，讓我補充一些關於中國市場的背景。如你所知，中國有兩個債券市場。一個是銀行間債券市場，另一個是交易所債券市場。其中第一個——銀行間市場——由中國人民銀行（PBOC）核准。我們去年取得許可，可在該市場從事信用評等的發行業務。而在本週，我們也獲得中國證監會（CSRC）核准，可在交易所債券市場營運。

We're now the only wholly owned foreign rating agency that can operate in both markets. So we have a similar situation as any other rating agency in China. But what's also really important in the last few weeks, the regulators together -- the PBOC, CSRC and SAFE, which is the State Agency for Foreign Exchange (sic) [State Administration of Foreign Exchange] -- they've issued some new guidelines about market access, access to both markets for foreign players, FX controls. In addition, over the last few months, we've seen BlackRock, Fidelity, JPMorgan and others start getting more access to the Chinese market.

我們現在是唯一一家可在兩個市場都營運的外資全資持有評等機構。因此，我們在中國的處境與其他評等機構類似。但在過去幾週同樣非常重要的是，監管機構——PBOC、CSRC 以及 SAFE（國家外匯管理局（sic）[State Administration of Foreign Exchange]）——共同發布了關於市場准入的新指引，涵蓋外資參與者進入兩個市場的准入，以及外匯管制等。此外，過去幾個月，我們也看到貝萊德（BlackRock）、富達（Fidelity）、摩根大通（JPMorgan）等機構開始獲得更多進入中國市場的管道。

So when we look at this overall, knowing that we've put in place a very strong team, we've started doing issuance of ratings in the markets. We've built strong relationships with issuers as well as the investors as well as the banks that are involved in the debt markets. We think that we're very well positioned as the Chinese market continues to reform further in their credit and debt markets.

因此，綜合來看，在我們已建立一支非常強的團隊、並已開始在市場中進行評等發行的前提下，我們也與發行人、投資人以及參與債務市場的銀行建立了穩固關係。我們認為，隨著中國市場在信用與債務市場持續深化改革，我們已處於非常有利的位置。

Congrats on the quarter.

恭喜本季表現。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Our next question comes from Manav Patnaik from Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊（Barclays）的 Manav Patnaik。

I was just hoping the 3 -- decline in 3% issuance volumes for next year, if you could just walk through maybe some of the moving pieces, particularly around maybe the assumptions around the election outcome if that's relevant, between the 2 different policies out there?

我想請教一下，關於明年發行量下滑 3% 的預估，能否帶我們梳理一下可能的變動因素，特別是若與選舉結果相關的話，在目前兩種不同政策主張之間，你們的假設是什麼？

Yes. Manav, this is Doug. Let me start with that. So when we look at the issuance forecast for next year, first of all, we're coming off of 2 really strong years of issuance. It was 15% last year. We're expecting up 13% this year. And as always, there's a lot of moving parts between financial institutions, corporate, structured finance, et cetera. So we're looking right now at a forecast for next year of 5% up for financial institutions.

是的。Manav，我是 Doug。我先回答這個問題。我們看明年的發行預測時，首先，我們是從連續兩年非常強勁的發行表現之後往前看。去年是成長 15%。我們預期今年成長 13%。而且一如既往，金融機構、企業、結構性融資等之間有很多變動因素。因此，我們目前對明年的預測是：金融機構發行量成長 5%。

This is the data coming from our Ratings research team. Corporates, down 9%; structured, 6% down; public finance, down 1%; for an aggregate down 3%, that's what makes it up. But recall that that's just an issuance forecast. That's not our revenue forecast, and we're still working on that.

這些數據來自我們評等研究團隊。企業：下滑 9%；結構性：下滑 6%；公共融資：下滑 1%；合計下滑 3%，就是由這些構成。但請記得，這只是發行量預測。這不是我們的營收預測，我們仍在進行相關工作。

I don't think that we've necessarily taken into account what would be the factors that you would see from the election itself directly on that. But we are looking at there's a lot of cash that's still outstanding. We see that there's an M&A pipeline, which has started picking up. There's been a very high activity, high level of activity of noninvestment-grade high-yield issuance, and we see a lot in the pipeline there. So it's a combination of all of those different factors that we look at for this preliminary forecast for 2021.

我認為我們未必已把選舉本身會直接帶來的因素納入其中。但我們確實看到市場上仍有大量現金尚未投入。我們也看到併購（M&A）案源管線開始回升。非投資級高收益債的發行活動非常活躍，我們也看到那裡有很多在途案源。因此，這份 2021 年初步預測，是綜合上述各種不同因素所形成的。

Got it. And if I could just ask on the Platts side, I mean, I think numbers were fairly solid considering, I guess, what everyone assumes is a tough backdrop. There's been a wave of M&A in that market as well. Should we be expecting any drop-off or any items to consider as we think about the growth going forward?

了解。另外我想問 Platts 這邊，我的意思是，考量到大家普遍認為的大環境偏艱困，數字其實相當穩健。那個市場也出現一波併購潮。展望未來成長時，我們是否應預期會有任何回落，或有什麼需要留意的事項？

Well, if you look, Manav, at the different components of the Platts revenue growth, indeed, we are quite pleased with what we saw this quarter. Price reporting, up approximately 6%, and analytics up somewhere 10%, 11%. But then Global Trading Services down, but we know that can fluctuate period-over-period. And the business is overcoming some headwinds. You might recall that last quarter, we talked about a very small conference business that saw its revenues evaporate in the current environment.

Manav，如果你看 Platts 營收成長的不同組成，確實，我們對本季看到的表現相當滿意。價格報導（Price reporting）約成長 6%，分析（analytics）成長約 10% 到 11%。但全球交易服務（Global Trading Services）下滑，不過我們知道這部分可能會在不同期間之間波動。而該業務也正在克服一些逆風。你可能記得上季我們提到，一個規模很小的會議業務在目前環境下營收幾乎蒸發。

So indeed, the Platts results are solid. We're quite pleased with it. If you think about the revenue outlook for the full year, probably mid-single digit growth is the best assumption for the remainder of this year and, therefore, for the full year outlook.

因此，Platts 的結果確實穩健。我們對此相當滿意。若你思考全年營收展望，今年剩餘期間以及因此推導出的全年展望，最合理的假設大概是中個位數成長。

Our next question comes from Andrew Nicholas from William Blair.

下一個問題來自 William Blair 的 Andrew Nicholas。

As you think about the targets or the goals for your ESG business, which I believe you've outlined to be somewhere close to $270 million or so in 2024, I'm wondering what you think are the main factors that will determine whether or not you achieve that goal. And maybe asked another way, if we fast forward to 2024 and your ESG business is well above target, why would that be? And maybe the same question if you were to underperform your expectations?

當你們思考 ESG 業務的目標或里程碑——我相信你們曾提出 2024 年大約接近 2.7 億美元左右——我想了解你認為決定能否達成該目標的主要因素是什麼。或者換個問法，如果我們快轉到 2024 年，你們的 ESG 業務明顯高於目標，原因會是什麼？同樣地，如果表現低於預期，又可能是什麼原因？

Yes. Thank you, Andrew. This is Doug. Well, first of all, we're very excited about the growth overall in the ESG landscape itself. This is something that 4 or 5 years ago, not a lot of people are talking about. And we're still trying to understand what the total addressable market is going to be, and we think it's going to continue to get quite large, and it will be expanding rapidly. We've seen that over the last couple of years, it's expanded rapidly as more U.S. companies start embracing ESG.

是的。謝謝你，Andrew。我是 Doug。首先，我們對 ESG 整體版圖本身的成長感到非常振奮。這是在 4、5 年前還沒有太多人討論的議題。我們仍在嘗試理解其可服務的總市場（TAM）會是多大，但我們認為它將持續變得相當可觀，並且會快速擴張。過去幾年我們已看到，隨著更多美國企業開始採納 ESG，市場快速擴大。

In addition, you see that during the pandemic, there's been more interest in the S part of ESG. So that's increasing, which has brought more interest from ESG itself. And in addition, there's a lot of interest on the climate aspect of ESG and climate on its own.

此外，在疫情期間，你會看到市場對 ESG 中「S」（社會）面向的關注提高。因此這部分在增加，也帶動了對 ESG 本身更多的興趣。另外，市場對 ESG 的氣候面向，以及氣候議題本身，也有很高的關注度。

So when we look at where the growth is going to be coming from, we think that any type of investor, whether you're an institutional investor within the insurance industry, you might be looking at climate change, you might be looking at physical risk. If you're an endowment or pension fund, you're starting to hear from the asset owners that they would like to know more about the purpose of the investments and the destination of the funds there. And what we see through these types of investors that they're starting to demand more and more clear, consistent information that they can build into their models.

因此，當我們看成長將從何而來時，我們認為任何類型的投資人都可能是來源：無論你是保險業中的機構投資人，你可能會關注氣候變遷、關注實體風險（physical risk）。如果你是捐贈基金或退休金基金，你開始會從資產所有人那裡聽到，他們希望更了解投資的目的，以及資金的去向。而我們從這些類型的投資人身上看到的是，他們開始要求越來越清楚、一致的資訊，以便納入他們的模型之中。

And so we see -- as you've seen us present, we believe that there's a whole set of product opportunities for us across every single division as well as cross-divisional solutions. We have estimated, as you know, a 40% growth rate. We will be providing updates on that early next year, but we do see that we think that this market is going to grow very rapidly, and that we will be one of the main players in this -- in the ESG space.

因此我們看到——正如你們也看到我們所展示的——我們相信在每一個事業部以及跨事業部解決方案方面，都存在一整套的產品機會。如你所知，我們估計成長率為40%。我們將在明年年初就此提供更新，但我們確實認為這個市場將會非常快速地成長，而我們將會是其中的主要參與者之一——也就是在ESG領域。

Got it. And maybe just a follow-up to that. I mean, where do you feel like you are or where you stand with respect to your data assets in ESG? Obviously, the RobecoSAM Ratings business acquisition is a big piece of that pie. But I'm just curious if there are gaps that you're still looking at filling in, and whether or not you'd hope to do that organically or via tuck-in M&A. And where might those areas of opportunity be?

了解。那也許就此再追問一下。我的意思是，就ESG方面的數據資產而言，你們覺得自己目前處於什麼位置、站在什麼樣的水準？顯然，收購RobecoSAM Ratings業務是其中很大的一塊。但我想了解的是，你們是否仍看到需要補足的缺口，以及你們希望透過內生成長還是透過補強型併購（tuck-in M&A）來完成？而那些機會領域可能會在哪裡？

Yes. Thank you. Well, first of all, both Trucost and the RobecoSAM, the CSA capability that comes over with SAM are both top-notch. They're better than anybody else in the industry. So we have a great start with both of those in a foundational level.

是的。謝謝。首先，Trucost以及RobecoSAM——也就是隨SAM一併帶來的CSA能力——兩者都屬於頂尖水準。它們比業界任何其他競爭者都更好。因此，在基礎層面上，我們已經憑藉這兩者有了一個非常好的起點。

Where we need to continue to add to our portfolio, which is more likely organically, is more and more data that comes from issuers themselves. As an example, what we're doing with the ESG evaluation product that's in the Ratings business, there needs to be a much broader set of data that is going to be used as evaluations.

我們需要持續擴充投資組合的部分——更可能是透過內生成長——是來自發行人自身的、越來越多的數據。例如，我們在評級業務中的ESG評估產品所做的事情，就需要更廣泛的一組數據作為評估依據。

We see the green bond market starting to grow. That's not something you can go out and acquire. That's something that you need to build the expertise and start building the data sets.

我們看到綠色債券市場開始成長。那不是你可以直接出去收購的東西。那是你需要建立專業能力，並開始建構數據集的事情。

But what's very important also is linking the data, where we find that there's a lot of data sets, whether it's internal, external. And it's -- a lot of our -- the investors and clients want to learn how they can link it better into their own needs.

但同樣非常重要的是把數據連結起來；我們發現有很多數據集，不論是內部的或外部的。而且——我們的許多投資人與客戶都想知道，如何能把這些數據更好地連結到他們自身的需求中。

Finally, what I would say is that there are not clear standards yet outside in the market. If you look at what are the disclosure requirements around the world, they're very iffy, spotty, if there are even any at all with ESG. And so we're incredibly active across all of the different groups that are setting standards, whether it's SASB, Task Force for Climate-related Financial Disclosure. Ewout out is one of the founding members of Accounting for Sustainability in the U.S. branch. And so we're very active in all of those groups, so we can be at the table as the standards are set and ensure that then what we're delivering is going to meet all those standards.

最後我想說的是，市場上目前還沒有明確的標準。如果你看全球各地的揭露要求，關於ESG的規範非常不確定、零散，甚至可能根本沒有。因此我們在所有制定標準的不同團體中都非常積極參與，不論是SASB、氣候相關財務揭露工作小組（Task Force for Climate-related Financial Disclosure）。Ewout是美國分支「會計促進永續」（Accounting for Sustainability）的創始成員之一。所以我們在這些團體中都非常活躍，確保在標準制定時我們能坐在桌邊參與，並確保我們所提供的內容能符合所有這些標準。

Our next question comes from Kevin McVeigh from Crédit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸（Crédit Suisse）的Kevin McVeigh。

Just to follow-up on the 3% issuance decline, the comment versus the revenue. Just any puts and takes on -- obviously I don't want to get specific on revenue, but just any puts and takes to think about, given the component of the issuance in 2019 and '20 being so strong? Just would you expect kind of the normal delta between issuance relative to revenue? Or just anything to call out either way.

就3%的發行量下滑、以及你提到與營收之間的關係再追問一下。我知道我不想讓你談得太具體到營收，但考量到2019年與2020年的發行量組成非常強勁，有沒有什麼正反因素（puts and takes）可以讓我們思考？你會預期發行量相對於營收之間的差異（delta）大致維持正常水準嗎？或者不論哪個方向，有沒有什麼特別需要指出的？

Well, first of all, just related to that, I gave some of the components about the forecast from our Ratings research team for next year. But just to give you a couple of examples, in the third quarter, there was issuance which was as high as up 94% for high yield in the U.S. And then if you look at another category like covered bonds in -- worldwide, it was down 40%. The structured credit or CLOs were down 40% globally. So you saw some really big swings around the globe of different types of issuance.

首先，關於這點，我剛才已經分享了我們評級研究團隊對明年的預測中一些構成要素。但再舉幾個例子：第三季，美國高收益債的發行量一度高達年增94%。而如果你看另一個類別，例如全球的擔保債（covered bonds），則下滑了40%。結構性信貸或CLO在全球也下滑了40%。所以你會看到全球不同類型的發行量出現非常大的波動。

What we've seen right now between credit conditions themselves, between rates, with spreads, there's a lot of movement across the different asset classes around the world in different regions. And so we're trying to balance all of those as we make our forward-looking approach to this. But Ewout is going to add some other comments.

我們目前看到，從信貸狀況本身、利率到利差，各資產類別在全球不同地區都有很大的變動。因此在做前瞻性判斷時，我們正試圖在這些因素之間取得平衡。不過Ewout會再補充一些看法。

And Kevin, let me build on what Doug just said. The bridge between bond issuance and revenue growth, there are many elements that go into the mix. What you have to think of, for example, is bank loan volumes that come from a relative -- relatively low base. In 2020, we have nontransaction revenue that definitely is going up in a modest pace year-over-year. And for example, you have to think about surveillance over the larger bond issuance that has been done this year.

Kevin，我接著Doug剛才的話再補充一下。在債券發行量與營收成長之間的連結上，有許多因素會共同影響。例如，你需要考慮銀行貸款量，因為它是從相對——相對較低的基期起來的。在2020年，我們的非交易型營收（nontransaction revenue）確實以溫和的速度逐年上升。此外，你也需要考慮今年大量債券發行所帶來的後續監測（surveillance）需求。

There is an M&A environment, our new product launches. There are commercial conditions. So there's many of those elements that go into the mix in order to bridge from bond issuance outlook to ultimately Ratings revenue growth.

還有併購環境、我們的新產品上市。也有商業條件。因此，為了從債券發行量展望推導到最終的評級營收成長，會有許多這類因素共同作用。

That's very helpful. And then just a quick follow-up. Are you starting -- and I'm sure you are -- kind of structural changes in just the data consumption within Market Intelligence and Platts just post-COVID? It just seems like there's definitely more increased frequency of data, query and things like that. Anything to call out?

這非常有幫助。再快速追問一下。在COVID之後，你們是否開始看到——我相信你們有——Market Intelligence與Platts在數據消費方面出現某種結構性的變化？看起來數據查詢頻率等確實提高了。有沒有什麼值得特別指出的？

The only thing to call out right now is that we've seen a dramatic increase in usage over the last 6 months across every different type of platform we have. As you know, we have not been doing conferences, but all of our webinars are up 300%, 400%. There's huge increases in our conference attendees. We see increase in the visits to all of our websites. We had a free COVID microsite that is -- every single day, there's a lot of visits to that with research that we have around COVID.

目前唯一要特別指出的是，過去6個月我們在所有不同類型的平台上都看到使用量大幅增加。如你所知，我們沒有舉辦實體會議，但我們所有的網路研討會（webinars）都成長了300%、400%。我們的會議參與人數也大幅增加。我們看到所有網站的造訪量上升。我們有一個免費的COVID微型網站（microsite）——每天都有大量訪客造訪，查看我們關於COVID的研究內容。

But one of the most important questions that I hear myself and we pick up from our clients really goes to the core of what you started your question with. And that is, how do I link my data with your data? How do I link data across different sources, so I can use it in my modeling to make decisions? And that's something that we're spending a lot of time on.

但我自己最常聽到、也從客戶那裡蒐集到的最重要問題之一，其實回到你問題一開始的核心。也就是：我如何把我的數據與你們的數據連結起來？我如何把不同來源的數據串接起來，讓我能在模型中使用並做出決策？這也是我們投入大量時間在做的事情。

And you can see some of the tools that we've launched over the last 6 months or last year. So we've been looking at this very carefully. This goes back to why we bought Kensho and some of the things that they've been delivering. Why today we talked about ProSpread, which is a new tool that allows analysts to extract data from JPEGs and PDFs and put it into their modeling. So we see that the data modeling, data linking is really a critical need for our clients, and we're trying to make sure that we can be at the forefront of that.

你也可以看到我們在過去6個月或去年推出的一些工具。所以我們一直非常仔細地在觀察這件事。這也回到我們為什麼收購Kensho，以及他們所交付的一些成果。以及為什麼我們今天談到ProSpread——這是一個新工具，讓分析師能從JPEG與PDF中擷取數據並放入他們的模型中。因此我們看到，數據建模、數據連結確實是客戶的關鍵需求，而我們正努力確保自己能站在這方面的最前沿。

Our next question comes from Hamzah Mazari from Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Hamzah Mazari。

My first question is just around issuance. Specifically, what is your market share today in structured finance? And maybe how has that changed over time? And where do you think that can go?

我的第一個問題是關於發行。具體來說，您目前在結構性融資的市占率是多少？以及這個市占率隨時間推移可能如何變化？您認為未來可能走到哪裡？

Well, let me start. I don't necessarily really track market share in structured finance or any of the different products. What I could say is that across different products, there's something like covered bonds is a product that we are very inactive in around the different markets around the world. But things like ABS, CMBS, those are areas that we're very active in.

好，我先開始回答。我不一定會特別追蹤結構性融資或任何不同產品的市占率。我可以說的是，在不同產品中，像擔保債券（covered bonds）這類產品，我們在全球不同市場的參與度非常低。但像 ABS、CMBS 這些領域，我們則非常活躍。

There might be some quarter where the type of activity of CMBS doesn't necessarily favor the type of expertise that we have. So sometimes we might not see the same level of market share.

可能有些季度，CMBS 的活動類型不一定有利於我們所具備的專業能力。因此有時我們可能看不到同樣水準的市占率。

But what we're always looking for is that investors are looking at the highest-quality criteria and outcomes of ratings. And in fact, one of the things that we're measuring very closely during the pandemic is the quality of the performance of our ratings. We had made a major overhaul of our criteria after the financial crisis, and since then, we're watching the performance. And this is a place that's being tested, and our criteria is holding up. And that's one of the reasons you'll see investors asking issuers to ensure that there's an S&P rating on the debt when it's issued.

但我們一直在關注的是，投資人重視的是評等在最高品質標準與結果上的表現。事實上，在疫情期間，我們非常密切衡量的一件事就是我們評等表現的品質。在金融危機之後，我們對評等準則做了重大改革，自那之後我們一直在觀察其表現。而這正是一個正在接受考驗的領域，我們的準則經得起考驗。這也是為什麼你會看到投資人要求發行人在發債時確保該債務有 S&P 的評等。

Got it. And just my follow-up question. I know you outlined the $120 million savings plan, and we can see the breakdown between real estate, procurement, T&E and IT infrastructure. But maybe just 2 questions on that.

了解。接著是我的追問。我知道你們概述了 1.2 億美元的節省計畫，我們也看到在不動產、採購、差旅與招待（T&E）以及 IT 基礎設施之間的拆分。但我對此可能有兩個問題。

One, how is this different versus the prior $100 million or $120 million savings plan that you achieved? And then it seems like every 2 to 3 years, you have this $120 million bucket. Is there more to go after this as well after another 2 to 3 years?

第一，這與你們先前已達成的 1 億美元或 1.2 億美元節省計畫有何不同？第二，看起來每 2 到 3 年你們就會有這個 1.2 億美元的「桶」（額度）。那麼在再過 2 到 3 年之後，是否還有更多可以做？

This is Ewout. First, on your question how does this differ from the last productivity program, there are a couple of overlaps and a couple of areas that are different. The area where we see an overlap is technology infrastructure. We're still working through all the infrastructure that was very federated, technology debt and to clean up all of that. So that was a part of the last program, and this continued to be a part of the current program.

我是 Ewout。首先，關於你問這與上一個生產力計畫有何不同，確實有一些重疊，也有一些不同的領域。我們看到重疊的領域是科技基礎設施。我們仍在處理先前非常分散的基礎設施、技術債，並清理這些問題。所以這是上一個計畫的一部分，也持續成為目前計畫的一部分。

Real estate was a part of the last program, but I think that was more reducing real estate, where we had excess real estate at certain locations that were not used. Here, we see that we are going to be far more surgical with respect to real estate going forward. We're thinking about new models, how we will operate, how we will interact, new structured hybrid working models going forward. And that will give us the opportunity to optimize our real estate over the next few years. So it's in the same bucket and the same category but a slightly different approach.

不動產也是上一個計畫的一部分，但我認為那更多是縮減不動產，因為我們在某些地點有未使用的多餘空間。而這一次，我們預期未來在不動產方面會採取更精準、更具針對性的作法。我們在思考新的模式：我們將如何運作、如何互動，以及未來新的結構化混合辦公模式。這將讓我們有機會在未來幾年優化我們的不動產配置。所以它在同一個「桶」與同一類別中，但方法略有不同。

Last time, we were focused on the functional groups, and we saw opportunities to optimize the functional groups. That's not part of this particular program, but we are going to really focus now on our external spend.

上一次我們聚焦在各功能部門，並看到優化功能部門的機會。這不是這次特定計畫的一部分，但我們現在會真正把重點放在外部支出上。

Procurement is a component of the current program because we believe that we can improve our demand management internally as well as also our contract negotiations going forward. And then travel is coming down, which is the same as with respect to real estate. That has also to do with new models of working going forward. So yes, there are components that are similar, but there's also new components that we have added for this productivity program.

採購是目前計畫的一個組成部分，因為我們相信我們可以改善內部的需求管理，以及未來的合約談判。另外，差旅支出正在下降，這與不動產的情況相同。這也與未來新的工作模式有關。所以是的，有些組成部分相似，但我們也為這個生產力計畫加入了新的組成部分。

With respect to your second part of your question, is there more to go. I think you have heard me saying that before. I think there is a lot of room we have as a company to optimize, and we're going to continue to do that. We have a lot of operating leverage. So you may expect us, as a company, never be satisfied, never say this is enough. I think there's always opportunities to further challenge ourselves what we can do better in the future.

至於你問題的第二部分：是否還有更多可以做。我想你以前也聽我說過。我認為作為一家公司，我們仍有很大的優化空間，而且我們會持續這麼做。我們有很高的營運槓桿。所以你可以預期我們作為一家公司永遠不會滿足、永遠不會說這樣就夠了。我認為未來總是有機會進一步挑戰自己，看看我們還能做得更好。

Our next question comes from Alex Kramm from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自 UBS 的 Alex Kramm。

Quick one to start on the index business. You mentioned the year-over-year kind of changes there. But can you talk about quarter-over-quarter, in particular on the AUM side? If my math is right, average AUM was up 13% from the third quarter -- from the second quarter, sorry. But I think revenues were only up 2%. So was that the same kind of areas that you highlighted on a year-over-year basis? Or what really drove the slower increase here quarter-over-quarter?

先快速問一個關於指數業務的問題。你提到了年對年的變化。但你能談談季對季的情況嗎，特別是在 AUM（資產管理規模）方面？如果我算得沒錯，平均 AUM 較第三季——抱歉，是較第二季——上升了 13%。但我認為營收只上升了 2%。所以這是否與你在年對年基礎上強調的領域相同？或者，究竟是什麼導致季對季的增幅較慢？

It's the same kind of elements that you see quarter-over-quarter as year-over-year. The ETF flows, the ETF AUMs continue to develop in a favorable way. Mutual funds also continues to develop in a favorable way.

你看到的季對季因素與年對年是同一類型的要素。ETF 的資金流入、ETF 的 AUM 持續以有利的方式發展。共同基金也持續以有利的方式發展。

The main difference is exchange-traded derivative volumes. We have seen market volatility coming down and, therefore, also ETD volumes coming down. And that is really driving the lower growth in this particular category on a sequential basis.

主要差異在於交易所交易衍生品（ETD）的成交量。我們看到市場波動下降，因此 ETD 成交量也下降。這正是推動該類別在序列（季對季）基礎上成長較低的原因。

Our next question comes from Craig Huber with Huber Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Huber Research Partners 的 Craig Huber。

Great. Doug, would just be curious to hear your opinion here as we sort of think out the implications of the election. If one side wins versus the other, what it does to policy changes out there and stuff that potentially might happen. How that would impact your outlook as you think out for next year, particularly on the Ratings side of the business?

很好。Doug，我想聽聽你的看法，因為我們在思考選舉可能帶來的影響。如果一方勝選或另一方勝選，對政策變化以及可能發生的事情會有什麼影響。當你展望明年時，這會如何影響你的看法，特別是在評等（Ratings）業務方面？

Yes. Well, thank you for that. And obviously, as you saw when we put up some of the risks and contingencies that we're looking at, we are going to be looking carefully at the outlook -- outcome from the election. And no matter how the election comes out, we'll be able to work with any administration in the United States. And we think that there will be different types of policies for growth around the globe.

是的。嗯，謝謝你的問題。而且顯然，正如你看到我們列出的一些風險與不確定因素，我們會仔細關注選舉的結果——以及其影響。無論選舉結果如何，我們都能與美國任何一屆政府合作。我們也認為全球在成長方面會出現不同類型的政策。

Right now, one of the most important things, no matter what the outcome of the election is, is to see if there's going to be another stimulus program. The first stimulus program, the PPP, the Paycheck Protection Program, it helped save 13.5 million jobs. And as long as the pandemic is continuing to have its impact on the U.S. around the globe, we think that that right now, that probably has a larger impact on outlook for the economy than the election itself. And so what will happen after the election for any kind of stimulus, what will be some of the policy measures coming out, we believe that we could work with either administration no matter what they come up with.

目前，無論選舉結果如何，最重要的事情之一是看看是否會有另一項刺激方案。第一項刺激方案 PPP（薪資保護計畫，Paycheck Protection Program）協助挽救了 1,350 萬個工作。只要疫情仍持續對美國及全球造成影響，我們認為就目前而言，這對經濟前景的影響可能比選舉本身更大。因此，選後任何形式的刺激措施會如何發展、會推出哪些政策措施，我們相信無論是哪一屆政府提出什麼方案，我們都能與其合作。

But clearly, we'll be watching if there's any additional oversight of the regulatory side, what are going to be the international implications of cooperation, multilateralism, et cetera. And so these are the types of issues that we would be watching carefully to see what would be the impact to the business side from a new administration.

但很明顯地，我們會關注監管面是否會有任何額外的監督，以及合作、多邊主義等在國際層面的影響會是什麼。因此，這些都是我們會密切觀察的議題，以了解新政府上任後對業務端可能造成的影響。

And then my other question, what's your feeling on the M&A environment out there as it pertains broadly to the ratings market. As you think about Europe and the U.S. during this very low interest rate environment, as things progressively get better on the economic front, are you guys expecting M&A deal flow out there to pick up materially as you think out over the next year or so? And what does that mean for your Ratings business, please?

接著我另一個問題是，您對目前與評級市場整體相關的併購（M&A）環境有何看法？在這個超低利率環境下，當您觀察歐洲與美國，且隨著經濟面逐步改善，您們是否預期未來一年左右併購交易量會明顯回升？這對你們的評級業務意味著什麼，謝謝？

Yes. This was one of the things. When Ewout was talking earlier about what are some of the factors that we look at to see what would be the -- some of the drivers of revenues in the Ratings business. That even in a lower issuance environment, M&A would definitely be one of those. We do see a pent-up demand for M&A. We see a lot of deals that have started getting done despite the pandemic and despite social distancing.

是的。這正是其中一項。先前 Ewout 談到我們會看哪些因素，以判斷評級業務收入的一些驅動因素。即使在發行量較低的環境下，併購也絕對會是其中之一。我們確實看到併購需求的累積（pent-up demand）。我們也看到儘管有疫情、儘管需要社交距離，仍有不少交易開始完成。

The pipeline of M&A was really weak. It dropped to almost all-time lows in the second and third quarter this year, but it started picking up. And what we see in the pipeline is also starting to pick up.

併購案源（pipeline）一度非常疲弱。今年第二、第三季降到幾乎歷史低點，但之後開始回升。而我們在案源中看到的情況也開始改善、逐步回升。

M&A, typically, will bring along with it potentially a ratings evaluation service. There could be a bridge loan. There could be a -- depending on what type of high-yield or an investment-grade type of transaction it is, there could end up being another rating that comes out of it. So M&A is always a very positive leading indicator for the Ratings business.

併購通常會帶來潛在的評級評估服務需求。可能會有過橋貸款（bridge loan）。也可能會有——取決於是高收益或投資級的交易類型——最終衍生出另一個評級。因此，併購一直是評級業務非常正面的領先指標。

One final thing I'd say that we're also looking carefully at M&A. I would call it M&A. It's a little bit different. Let's call it restructuring. Because there is a lot of restructuring going on at the deeper end of the credit end, so higher-yield credits that are going through bankruptcies and restructuring. Because those also end up usually leading to additional business as well for the -- in the Ratings business.

最後我還想補充一點：我們也在密切關注 M&A。我會稱之為 M&A。但它有點不同。我們稱之為重整（restructuring）。因為在信用市場較深端有大量重整正在進行，也就是較高收益的信用標的正經歷破產與重整。而這些通常也會為評級業務帶來額外的業務機會。

Because once something's restructured, they go back out for a new loan rating, then potentially a bridge loan, which goes to a loan rating, which then could go into the bond rating. So M&A is a very important leading indicator for us, and we do see it starting to pick up.

因為一旦完成重整，他們會再回到市場尋求新的貸款評級，接著可能有過橋貸款，進而需要貸款評級，之後又可能延伸到債券評級。所以併購對我們而言是非常重要的領先指標，而我們也確實看到它開始回升。

Our next question comes from Jeff Silber from BMO Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Jeff Silber。

Doug, at the beginning of your remarks, I don't know if you were joking, but you talked about the "what are you waiting for" list. What do you think those companies are waiting for? Are they concentrated in a specific industry that's under pressure? I'm just curious if there were any attributes that you see from these companies. Do we expect these companies to get off and issue debt?

Doug，在你開場發言時，我不確定你是不是在開玩笑，但你提到「你們還在等什麼」的名單。你認為那些公司在等什麼？它們是否集中在某個承壓的特定產業？我只是好奇，你是否看到這些公司有任何共同特徵。我們是否預期這些公司會開始行動並發行債務？

Yes. It is a joke that I said that. But when we -- there is no specific characteristic of those companies that haven't come to market yet. There are a lot that have -- are sitting on large amounts of capital.

是的。我那樣說確實是個玩笑。但就我們觀察——那些尚未進入市場的公司，並沒有特定的共同特徵。其中有很多公司——手上握有大量資本。

There's a couple of possibilities. One is that they have more than enough liquidity already or they're not industries that are strained at all by the pandemic. It could also be that they already issued more recently in the last couple of years. As you know, we're in an environment where interest rates have been low for a while, especially in Europe and in Japan. You've seen very low interest rates in those markets for a long time. And even in the U.S., interest rates have been low.

有幾種可能性。一是它們本來就有綽綽有餘的流動性，或其所處產業完全未因疫情而承壓。也可能是它們在過去幾年已較近期發行過。如你所知，我們處在一個利率已低迷一段時間的環境，尤其是在歐洲與日本。你在那些市場已經長期看到非常低的利率。即便在美國，利率也一直偏低。

So it's probably that they have enough liquidity. They don't have a need for lowering their interest expense or they've got other, more immediate demands. But we are expecting those. So one of the things that we would expect is at some point in time, CFOs and treasurers might start asking the question, well, shouldn't I go ahead and restructure my debt or issue new debt at these kinds of rates? So that's what -- we're watching that as a potential pipeline in the future for issuance.

所以很可能是它們流動性充足。它們沒有降低利息費用的需求，或有其他更迫切的需求。但我們確實預期這些公司——因此我們預期的一件事是，在某個時間點，財務長（CFO）與財務主管（treasurers）可能會開始問：在這樣的利率水準下，我是不是應該著手重整我的債務或發行新債？所以這就是——我們把它視為未來發行的潛在案源並持續觀察。

Okay. Great. That's helpful. And then Ewout, you talked about in terms of share repurchase or potential share repurchase, that you're monitoring the market for the right time to resume. Can you share with us what are you looking for exactly before starting to repurchase shares?

好的。很好。這很有幫助。接著 Ewout，你談到股票回購或潛在股票回購時，提到你們正在觀察市場，等待合適時點再恢復。你能否分享一下，在開始回購股票之前，你們具體在看哪些條件？

Yes, Jeff. What we are looking for is more stable market conditions to enter into an accelerated share repurchase program. In our assessment over the next few weeks, we might see a higher level of volatility with the U.S. elections, with the resurgence of COVID cases around the world. So we are closing -- we're watching this very closely, and we'll determine what is the right moment to restart our share repurchase program.

是的，Jeff。我們在尋找的是更穩定的市場狀況，以便進入加速股票回購（accelerated share repurchase）計畫。依我們對未來幾週的評估，隨著美國大選，以及全球 COVID 病例再度升溫，我們可能會看到更高程度的波動。因此我們正非常密切地——我們會非常密切地觀察，並判斷何時是重啟股票回購計畫的適當時點。

I would like to add there, Jeff, that overall, our capital framework remains unchanged. So we are still having the target of a return of 75% of free cash flow over time. So we will continue with that.

我想在這裡補充一下，Jeff，整體而言，我們的資本配置框架維持不變。因此，我們仍以長期回饋自由現金流 75% 為目標。所以我們會持續遵循這個方向。

As you know, our balance sheet is rock solid. We have a high level of liquidity. We have low leverage, high cash balance. So this is really to do with timing. We will watch this very closely. And when the expected future volatility is coming down, we think it's the right moment to restart.

如你所知，我們的資產負債表非常穩健。我們有很高的流動性水準。我們槓桿偏低、現金餘額高。所以這真的只是時點的問題。我們會非常密切地觀察。當我們預期的未來波動性下降時，我們認為那就是重啟回購的適當時機。

Our next question comes from George Tong from Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自 Goldman Sachs 的 George Tong。

I wanted to dive deeper into your issuance forecast for next year. You talked about corporate issuance being down 9%. Can you elaborate on your investment-grade and high-yield expectations within corporate in the U.S. and international markets?

我想更深入了解你們對明年發行量的預測。你提到公司債發行量將下滑 9%。你能否進一步說明在美國與國際市場，公司債中投資級與高收益的預期？

I don't have enough detail to do that yet. And what I'd like to do is when we come back in the next earnings call, where we're going to be providing you the 2021 guidance, let us bring back a little bit more color on that at that point in time.

我目前還沒有足夠的細節可以做到那樣的拆分。我希望在下一次財報電話會議時——屆時我們會提供 2021 年指引——我們再帶回更多相關的補充說明。

Okay. Got it. And then as it relates to your new $120 million savings program, can you discuss how these savings will be distributed among the 4 segments? And if you expect the full $120 million in savings to flow through to margins? Or if it will be partially offset by reinvestments?

好的。了解。接著關於你們新的 1.2 億美元節省計畫，能否談談這些節省將如何在四個事業部門之間分配？以及你是否預期 1.2 億美元的節省會全數反映到利潤率上？或者其中一部分會被再投資所抵銷？

Yes, that's a great question, George. If you look at the way how the $120 million will flow through the different segments, I think the best assumption should be in the same way as you see the overall expense base for the company at the moment. So the highest expense base is in Market Intelligence, then in Ratings and then the other 2 divisions.

是的，George，這是個很好的問題。如果你看這 1.2 億美元將如何流經不同業務分部，我認為最好的假設應該是，與你目前看到公司整體費用基礎的分布方式相同。因此，費用基礎最高的是市場情報（Market Intelligence），其次是評級（Ratings），然後是另外兩個事業部。

So as a proxy, I would say that's probably the best assumption at this moment. Why? Because Market Intelligence has the highest number of employees. So they will benefit from the real estate reduction as well as from the travel reduction, but also Ratings will take a large share of that. So definitely, it's going to be an element that will help future margin expansion.

所以作為一個替代指標（proxy），我會說這大概是目前最好的假設。為什麼？因為市場情報的員工人數最多。因此他們將同時受益於不動產（辦公空間）縮減以及差旅縮減，但評級也會占其中很大一部分。所以毫無疑問，這將成為有助於未來利潤率擴張的一個因素。

Your question about reinvestments. We are, of course, baking that in. We're doing some reinvestments already this year. Think about the investments in our digital infrastructure, working from home, setting up our employees, digital interactions with our customers. There might also be certain investments with respect to impairments that we would expect over the next period. So an impairment, for example, of some real estate in the fourth quarter and the first half of next year in order to achieve the run rate savings going forward.

你關於再投資的問題。我們當然已把這納入考量。我們今年已經在做一些再投資。例如對我們的數位基礎設施的投資、居家辦公、為員工設置相關配備、以及與客戶的數位互動。在接下來一段期間，我們也可能會有某些與減損相關的投資，是我們所預期的。例如，為了在未來達成按年化（run rate）的節省，我們可能在第四季以及明年上半年對部分不動產進行減損。

We will now take our final question from Owen Lau from Oppenheimer.

我們現在將進入最後一個提問，來自 Oppenheimer 的 Owen Lau。

Could you please expand a little bit on the China Credit Analytics program? How much additional investment you expect to spend on MI in China and the opportunity of Market Intelligence in China? Any more color would be helpful.

能否請你再多談一點中國信用分析（China Credit Analytics）計畫？你們預期在中國的市場情報（MI）會投入多少額外投資，以及市場情報在中國的機會？任何更多細節都會很有幫助。

Owen, the investments that we are already doing and are part of the overall investment program of Market Intelligence, the investment for the analytics platform in China, you already see in the current results of Market Intelligence. So Market Intelligence is taking a little bit more than half of the overall investment spend of the company.

Owen，我們已經在做的投資，且屬於市場情報整體投資計畫的一部分；在中國的分析平台投資，你其實已經可以在市場情報目前的業績結果中看到。因此，市場情報承擔了公司整體投資支出的一半以上。

So if I look at the investment spend in the third quarter in total, and that's for all initiatives for the company, $30 million, and then a little bit more than half is in Market Intelligence. So -- and of that in Market Intelligence, it's supporting multiple initiatives: the SME initiative, the marketplace initiative and also the China Credit initiative. I'm not going to give you the specific number for China Credit, but you should expect it's a couple of million of dollars. But again, it's already in the current levels of the results that you see at this moment.

所以如果我看第三季的總投資支出——這涵蓋公司所有計畫——是 3,000 萬美元，其中一半以上在市場情報。而在市場情報內部，這些投資支援多項計畫：SME 計畫、市集（marketplace）計畫，以及中國信用（China Credit）計畫。我不會提供中國信用的具體數字，但你可以預期是數百萬美元的規模。但再次強調，它已經反映在你目前看到的業績水準之中。

And Owen, let me add that based on some of the information I shared with you earlier, we see that the Chinese financial markets are still going to be undergoing lots of reform, the reform that the domestic regulators would like to see a more global market. They'd like to see a more transparent market. And this is going to play to all of our divisions.

Owen，讓我補充一下，根據我先前與你分享的一些資訊，我們看到中國金融市場仍將進行大量改革；國內監管機構希望看到更全球化的市場。他們希望看到更透明的市場。而這將有利於我們所有事業部。

And obviously, we're out front right now with the rating agency. And Market Intelligence is building a very strong platform of delivering data and analytics, similar to what we deliver in other markets around the world.

而且顯然，我們目前在評級機構方面走在前面。市場情報也正在建立一個非常強大的平台，用於提供數據與分析，類似於我們在全球其他市場所提供的內容。

Got it. That's very helpful. Just one final question, quickly, on the expense guidance. How much percentage of the run rate we should expect S&P can save maybe in 2021 and 2022? And finally, the 100% of that $120 million.

了解。這非常有幫助。最後再問一個問題，快速關於費用指引。就年化（run rate）而言，你們預期標普（S&P）在 2021 與 2022 年大概能節省多少百分比？以及最後，這 1.2 億美元是否能達到 100%？

Component of it will come in quite quickly, and that has to do with the fact that certain initiatives are already in flight at the moment. And again, we are taking the 2019 expense levels as a base.

其中一部分會很快實現，這與某些計畫目前已在推進中有關。再者，我們是以 2019 年的費用水準作為基準。

So for example, we would not expect the travel and entertainment expenses to come up in that level. So that would be basically safe. We have already realized at this point in time. Also some other elements that will come in quite quickly.

例如，我們不預期差旅與交際（travel and entertainment）費用會回到那個水準。因此那部分基本上是確定的。我們在目前這個時間點已經實現了。另外也有一些其他項目會很快到位。

But for the remainder, we need the next 2 to 3 years. So I would say, a reasonable part next year, and then the rest will come in gradually over the next 2 or 3 years.

但其餘部分，我們需要接下來 2 到 3 年。所以我會說，明年會實現相當一部分，然後剩下的會在接下來 2 到 3 年逐步實現。

Thank you, Owen. And with that, let me close. And first of all, I want to thank all of the investors, who have joined the call today, for your support. I thank the analysts for joining and your questions. As usual, you always ask very good questions that help us run our business better.

謝謝你，Owen。那麼我就做個結語。首先，我要感謝今天加入電話會議的所有投資人，感謝你們的支持。也感謝分析師們的參與與提問。一如往常，你們總是提出非常好的問題，幫助我們把業務經營得更好。

Throughout the pandemic, we've been able to accelerate our digital transformation. We've been able to deliver very innovative products and meet the needs of our clients in the markets. With all of the uncertainty, they've been looking for more and more analytical information for research. And we're pleased that our people have been able to deliver that.

在整個疫情期間，我們得以加速數位轉型。我們得以推出非常創新的產品，並滿足客戶在市場中的需求。在充滿不確定性的情況下，他們在研究方面尋求越來越多的分析資訊。我們很高興我們的同仁能夠交付這些成果。

But we would have never been able to do this without the hard work, dedication and perseverance of our employees, and I want to thank them today on this call. So thank you to all of our employees, and thank you all who have joined the call today.

但若沒有員工的辛勤工作、投入與堅持，我們不可能做到這些；我也想在今天這通電話會議上向他們致謝。所以，感謝我們所有員工，也感謝今天加入電話會議的各位。

That concludes this morning's call. A PDF version of the presenter slides is available now for downloading from investor.spglobal.com. Replays of the entire call will be available in about 2 hours. The webcast with audio insights will be maintained on S&P Global's website for 1 year. The audio-only telephone replay will be maintained for 1 month. On behalf of S&P Global, we thank you for participating, and wish you have a good day.

今天上午的電話會議到此結束。簡報投影片的 PDF 版本現已可於 investor.spglobal.com 下載。約 2 小時後將提供整場電話會議的重播。含音訊解說的網路直播將在 S&P Global 網站保留 1 年。僅音訊的電話重播將保留 1 個月。我謹代表 S&P Global，感謝各位參與，並祝各位有美好的一天。