標普全球 (SPGI) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • 2025 全年營收成長 9%,有機常數匯率營收成長 8%,EPS 年增 14%,均超越年初指引高標;各事業群營收與營業利潤率皆達或優於原始指引區間高端
    • 2026 年指引:有機常數匯率營收成長 6-8%,調整後營業利潤率擴張 50-75 bps,調整後 EPS 成長 9-10%($19.40-$19.65);各事業群皆預期營收與利潤率擴張
    • 盤後市場反應未提及;同業對比未提及
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • 私募市場(Private Markets)持續高成長,2025 年營收年增 16%,受惠於私募信評、私募工具(如 iLEVEL)AI 功能升級及新指標推出
      • AI 產品與功能於各事業群落地,推動產品創新、提升生產力,並帶動新產品銷售與加值服務需求
      • 能源事業群持續推動 AI 能源研究、數據整合與新產品(如 Copilot 整合),能源生態系資本流入帶動多事業群成長
      • Indices 受惠於資產連結費用(AUM 增長)、衍生性商品交易量提升,帶動雙位數成長
      • 企業級數據辦公室(EDO)與首席客戶辦公室(CCO)推動跨部門協作、提升效率與客戶黏著度,預計 2027 年底前降低 20% run rate 成本
    • 風險:
      • 能源轉型與永續(Energy Transition & Sustainability)短期需求疲弱,2025 年營收下滑 3%,顧問與一次性專案支出減緩,2026 年展望保守
      • Ratings 與 Market Intelligence 受發行市場波動、銀行貸款量能疲弱、M&A 及基礎建設發債不確定性影響,2026 年指引偏保守
      • 地緣政治、宏觀經濟與利率變動仍具高度不確定性,可能影響發債量與市場活動
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • Market Intelligence:Q4 營收年增 7%,有機常數匯率成長 5%;訂閱型營收佔比 85%,年增 7%,ACV 連兩季達 6.5-7%
    • Ratings:Q4 營收年增 12%,有機常數匯率成長 10%;交易型營收年增 12%,非交易型營收年增 11%;營業利潤率擴張 210 bps 至 61.8%
    • Energy:Q4 營收年增 6%;能源資源數據與洞察、價格評估分別年增 9%、8%;營業利潤率擴張 50 bps 至 45.5%
    • Indices:Q4 營收年增 14%;資產連結費用年增 13%,衍生性商品交易收入年增 20%;營業利潤率擴張 90 bps 至 68.8%
    • Mobility:Q4 營收年增 8%;經銷商收入年增 10%,製造業收入年增 1%;營業利潤率擴張 70 bps 至 35.4%
    • Vitality Index:Q4 收入 $470M,維持 12%
  4. 財務預測
    • 2026 年有機常數匯率營收成長 6-8%;報告營收成長約高 60 bps(併購、匯率影響)
    • 2026 年調整後營業利潤率擴張 50-75 bps(排除 OSTTRA),含 OSTTRA 則擴張 10-35 bps
    • 2026 年調整後 EPS 指引 $19.40-$19.65,年增 9-10%
    • 2026 年 CapEx 未揭露具體數字
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: Market Intelligence 量能型產品 Q4 較弱,2026 年展望如何?
      A: 訂閱型營收佔比高且穩健,量能型產品受市場波動影響大,Q4 部分產品如 WSO、Notice Manager 表現佳,但部分投資等級與股票發行較弱。2026 年對量能型產品持審慎態度,預期會有波動,訂閱型營收成長將落在指引區間高端。
    • Q: AI 競爭(如 Anthropic 開放 plug-in)對 S&P 影響?
      A: S&P 與主要 AI 供應商合作,AI 為業務淨正面動能。S&P 控制商業關係且不允許 LLM 用戶訓練 S&P 數據,並將 AI 功能嵌入自家產品,靈活分發數據,客戶需求強勁。
    • Q: Ratings 2026 年展望偏保守,主因為何?
      A: 主要假設 2026 年大部分再融資來自當年到期債,未假設大量提前發行。M&A 成長假設溫和,AI 基礎建設發債雖有潛力但尚難預估。若超預期,發行量有上行空間,但目前採審慎假設。
    • Q: AI 對營收與定價策略的影響?
      A: AI 增強產品價值,帶動加值服務與新數據需求,提升續約與加價空間。加值功能如自動化數據擷取、Copilot 整合等帶動新收入。定價策略不變,但續約與新產品銷售有更多價值對話空間。
    • Q: 私募市場 2026 年成長動能與重點?
      A: 私募信評、私募工具(如 iLEVEL)、新指標與數據整合(With Intelligence、Cambridge Mercer)推動成長。跨部門協作加速創新,客戶需求強勁,2026 年持續看好。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning and welcome to S&P Global's fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings conference call. I'd like to inform you that this call is being recorded for broadcast. (Operator Instructions)

    早安,歡迎參加標普全球2025年第四季及全年業績電話會議。我想告知您,本次通話將被錄音並用於廣播。(操作說明)

  • I would now like to introduce Mr. Mark Grant, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer for S&P Global. Sir, you may begin.

    現在我謹向大家介紹標普全球投資者關係資深副總裁兼財務長馬克‧格蘭特先生。先生,您可以開始了。

  • Mark Grant - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations

    Mark Grant - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations

  • Good morning, and thank you for joining today's S&P Global fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings call. Presenting on today's call are Martina Cheung, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Eric Aboaf, Chief Financial Officer. We issued a press release with our results earlier today. In addition, we have posted a supplemental slide deck with additional information on our results and guidance. If you need a copy of the release and financial schedules or the supplemental deck, they can be downloaded at investor.spglobal.com.

    早安,感謝各位參加今日的標普全球2025年第四季及全年財報電話會議。今天出席電話會議的有總裁兼執行長 Martina Cheung 和財務長 Eric Aboaf。我們今天早些時候發布了包含研究結果的新聞稿。此外,我們還發布了一份補充幻燈片,其中包含有關我們研究結果和指導意見的更多資訊。如果您需要新聞稿和財務報表或補充資料的副本,可以從 investor.spglobal.com 下載。

  • The matters discussed in today's conference call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including projections, estimates, and descriptions of future events. Any such statements are based on current expectations and current economic conditions, and are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from results anticipated in these forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning these risks and uncertainties can be found in our Forms 10-K and 10-Q filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

    今天電話會議討論的事項可能包含 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》意義上的前瞻性陳述,包括對未來事件的預測、估計和描述。任何此類聲明均基於當前的預期和當前的經濟狀況,並受風險和不確定性的影響,這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性聲明中預期的結果有重大差異。有關這些風險和不確定性的更多信息,請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表格和 10-Q 表格。

  • In today's earnings release and during the conference call, we're providing non-GAAP adjusted financial information. This information is provided to enable investors to make meaningful comparisons of the company's operating performance between periods and to view the company's business from the same perspective as management.

    在今天的獲利報告和電話會議中,我們將提供非GAAP調整後的財務資訊。提供這些資訊是為了讓投資者能夠對公司不同時期的經營業績進行有意義的比較,並從與管理層相同的角度看待公司的業務。

  • The earnings release contains financial measures calculated in accordance with GAAP that corresponds to the non-GAAP measures we are providing, and the press release and the supplemental deck contain reconciliations of such GAAP and non-GAAP measures. The financial metrics we'll be discussing today refer to non-GAAP adjusted metrics unless explicitly noted otherwise.

    獲利報告包含依照 GAAP 計算的財務指標,這些指標與我們提供的非 GAAP 指標相對應;新聞稿和補充資料中包含此類 GAAP 指標和非 GAAP 指標的調整表。除非另有明確說明,我們今天討論的財務指標均指非GAAP調整後的指標。

  • As noted in the press release and slides, financial guidance provided today assumes contributions from Mobility for the full year and excludes any impact from anticipated stranded costs. The company expects to update adjusted guidance to exclude Mobility and institute GAAP guidance upon completion of the spin.

    如新聞稿和幻燈片所述,今天提供的財務指導假設全年出行業務均有貢獻,且不包括任何預期擱淺成本的影響。公司預計將在分拆完成後更新調整後的績效指引,剔除行動業務,並採用 GAAP 準則。

  • I would also like to call your attention to certain European regulations. Any investor who has or expects to obtain ownership of 5% or more of S&P Global should contact Investor Relations to better understand the potential impact of this legislation on the investor and the company.

    我還想提請您注意一些歐洲法規。任何持有或預期持有標普全球 5% 或以上股份的投資者都應聯繫投資者關係部門,以便更好地了解該立法對投資者和公司可能產生的影響。

  • We are aware that we have some media representatives with us on the call. However, this call is intended for investors, and we would ask that questions from the media be directed to our media relations team whose contact information can be found in the press release.

    我們知道通話中有一些媒體代表在場。然而,本次電話會議僅面向投資者,媒體如有任何問題,請聯絡我們的媒體關係團隊,聯絡方式可在新聞稿中找到。

  • At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Martina Cheung. Martina?

    此時,我想把電話交給張敏娜。瑪蒂娜?

  • Martina Cheung - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Martina Cheung - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Mark. We had an excellent year in 2025, and we're very pleased with the results we delivered. We saw strong revenue growth, meaningful expansion of our operating margins, and 14% growth in EPS. We exceeded our initial guidance from last February on revenue growth, operating margin, and EPS, while returning 113% of adjusted free cash flow to shareholders. We just announced the 53rd consecutive year of dividend increases, and we repurchased more than $5 billion in stock in 2025.

    謝謝你,馬克。我們在2025年取得了優異的成績,我們對所取得的成果非常滿意。我們實現了強勁的營收成長、營業利潤率的顯著提升,以及每股盈餘成長了 14%。我們在營收成長、營業利潤率和每股盈餘方面均超過了去年 2 月的初步預期,同時向股東返還了 113% 的調整後自由現金流。我們剛剛宣布連續第 53 年提高股息,並且我們在 2025 年回購了超過 50 億美元的股票。

  • Financial results like this are the evidence of a committed, tightly aligned, and disciplined executive team and underscore the talent and dedication of our people. I'm exceptionally proud of what our people accomplished in my first full year as CEO.

    這樣的財務表現證明了我們擁有一支忠誠、目標一致、紀律嚴明的管理團隊,也凸顯了員工的才華和奉獻精神。在我擔任執行長的第一個完整年度裡,我為我們的團隊所取得的成就感到無比自豪。

  • We launched our new strategic vision at our Investor Day in November, and we're delivering against that vision of advancing essential intelligence. As we'll discuss today, we continue to see real momentum in our strategic initiatives and across our enterprise capabilities. While a very dynamic macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop persists, we believe we are entering 2026 with more tailwinds than headwinds, and the strength to seize the opportunities ahead of us.

    我們在 11 月的投資者日上發布了新的戰略願景,我們正在朝著推進關鍵情報這一願景努力。正如我們今天將要討論的,我們在策略舉措和企業能力方面繼續看到真正的發展勢頭。儘管宏觀經濟和地緣政治情勢依然非常複雜多變,但我們相信,進入 2026 年,我們面臨的順風多於逆風,並且有能力抓住擺在我們面前的機會。

  • Our financial guidance, which Eric will outline in a moment, calls for strong organic constant currency revenue growth, continued margin expansion, and EPS growth. Our confidence in that outlook is bolstered by strong performance indicators for our subscription businesses. While we're taking a prudent approach to our outlook for the market-driven components of the business, we see encouraging leading indicators that could provide incremental tailwinds to the business.

    Eric 稍後將概述我們的財務指導,其中包括強勁的有機固定匯率收入成長、持續的利潤率擴張和每股盈餘成長。我們訂閱業務的強勁業績指標增強了我們對這一前景的信心。儘管我們對業務中市場驅動部分的展望採取了謹慎的態度,但我們看到了一些令人鼓舞的領先指標,這些指標可能會為業務帶來逐步的利好。

  • As always, we carefully monitor and assess the macroeconomic environment, geoeconomic, and geopolitical dynamics, and the health of our customer end markets. While it's difficult to predict many of the factors that could impact our business this early in the year, we believe there are more tailwinds and headwinds and expect to deliver real value to our customers and profitable growth for our shareholders.

    一如既往,我們會密切關注和評估宏觀經濟環境、地緣經濟和地緣政治動態,以及客戶終端市場的健康狀況。雖然今年年初很難預測哪些因素會影響我們的業務,但我們相信會有更多的利多因素和不利因素,並期望為我們的客戶帶來真正的價值,為我們的股東帶來獲利成長。

  • Now turning to our enterprise financial results. As I mentioned previously, the financial results show the strength of the business and demonstrate the discipline and execution of our people. When we compare the full-year results to the original guidance that we had given for 2025 back in February, we are pleased to see that every division delivered revenue growth within or above those original guidance ranges, and every division delivered operating margins at or above the high end of those original guidance ranges.

    現在來看我們公司的財務表現。正如我之前提到的,財務表現顯示了公司的實力,也反映了我們員工的紀律和執行力。當我們把全年業績與我們在 2 月份給出的 2025 年業績預期進行比較時,我們很高興地看到,每個部門的收入增長都達到了或超過了最初的預期範圍,每個部門的營業利潤率也達到了或超過了最初的預期範圍的上限。

  • We also see the strength that comes from the diversification of our revenue in 2025. Through the year, we saw a disruption in the issuance markets, impacting our Ratings business following Liberation Day in April. We saw incremental sanctions impacting our energy business midway through the year. And we saw volatility in the volume-driven products emerge in Market Intelligence.

    我們也看到了2025年收入多元化帶來的優勢。今年以來,發行市場出現混亂,在 4 月解放日之後,對我們的評級業務造成了影響。年中,我們看到製裁措施逐步對我們的能源業務造成了影響。我們看到,市場情報中成交量驅動型產品的波動性開始顯現。

  • Despite these various challenges in 2025, we raised our enterprise guidance through the second half of the year, and we still delivered revenue growth at the high end with margins and EPS very near the high end of that elevated guidance. We were able to do this while still making incremental strategic investments to drive future growth.

    儘管 2025 年面臨各種挑戰,我們還是提高了下半年的企業業績預期,並且仍然實現了高水準的營收成長,利潤率和每股盈餘也非常接近預期上限。我們能夠在持續進行策略性投資以推動未來成長的同時,實現這一目標。

  • Now as we outlined for you back in November, our strategic vision for S&P Global is to advance essential intelligence. We've been providing essential intelligence to our customers for over 150 years. Over 95% of our revenue is tied to proprietary benchmarks, differentiated data, and critical workflow tools, and we expect that percentage to increase over time.

    正如我們在去年 11 月向您概述的那樣,標普全球的戰略願景是推動關鍵情報的發展。150多年來,我們一直為客戶提供至關重要的情報。我們 95% 以上的收入都與專有基準、差異化數據和關鍵工作流程工具相關,我們預計這一比例會隨著時間的推移而增加。

  • We have been a trusted partner for our customers for a very long time. And every day, our customers are telling us that they need our differentiated and proprietary data. They need transparency at opaque markets. They need trusted benchmarks and measures of risk and performance.

    長期以來,我們一直是客戶值得信賴的合作夥伴。每天,我們的客戶都在告訴我們,他們需要我們差異化的專有數據。他們需要在不透明的市場中獲得透明度。他們需要值得信賴的風險和績效基準及衡量標準。

  • The message from our customers is consistent and simple. What they need most is what we uniquely provide. Our mission is to advance essential intelligence and deliver that at scale better than anyone in the world.

    來自客戶的訊息一致且簡單。他們最需要的正是我們獨有的產品。我們的使命是推動關鍵情報的發展,並以比世界上任何人都更好的方式大規模地提供這些情報。

  • As I shared with you in November, we're going to achieve this through three strategic objectives. The first is advancing market leadership. We have some of the most trusted brands in our markets. We start from a position of great strength to continue to grow in our existing markets, identifying new use cases for our existing products and constantly innovating to develop new products in these foundational areas.

    正如我在 11 月與大家分享的那樣,我們將透過三個策略目標來實現這一目標。第一點是鞏固市場領導地位。我們在市場上擁有一些最值得信賴的品牌。我們以強大的實力為基礎,在現有市場中持續發展,為現有產品尋找新的應用場景,並在這些基礎領域不斷創新,開發新產品。

  • The second is expanding into high-growth adjacencies. These are the initiatives you hear us talk about frequently, private markets, energy expansion, supply chain, decentralized finance, and other rapidly evolving areas of the market.

    第二點是向高成長的鄰近領域擴張。這些就是我們經常談到的舉措:私人市場、能源擴張、供應鏈、去中心化金融以及其他快速發展的市場領域。

  • The third objective is amplifying our enterprise capabilities. We've made great progress with our Enterprise Data Office and our Chief Client Office in 2025. And we're scaling out additional enterprise capabilities through process engineering, upskilling and training our people on new technologies and leveraging leading AI solutions, including those we built ourselves. These advancements generate value for our customers and our people at scale.

    第三個目標是增強我們的企業能力。2025年,我們的企業資料辦公室和首席客戶辦公室都取得了巨大進展。我們正在透過流程工程、提昇員工技能和培訓,以及利用領先的人工智慧解決方案(包括我們自己開發的方案),來擴展企業的其他能力。這些進步為我們的客戶和員工創造了巨大的價值。

  • In 2025, we made great strides in several of our key strategic focus areas. We delivered exceptional results in private markets. We expanded in private credit ratings. We significantly enhanced our private market tools like iLEVEL with new AI functionality and launched private equity benchmarks and indices.

    2025年,我們在幾個關鍵策略重點領域取得了長足進步。我們在私募市場取得了卓越的業績。我們拓展了私人信用評級業務。我們大幅增強了私募市場工具(如 iLEVEL),為其添加了新的 AI 功能,並推出了私募股權基準和指數。

  • We announced and completed the acquisition of With Intelligence and our partnership with Cambridge Associates and Mercer. We are well on our way to building the most comprehensive solution set in the world for the private markets.

    我們宣布並完成了對 With Intelligence 的收購,以及與 Cambridge Associates 和 Mercer 的合作關係。我們正穩步推進,力求為私人市場打造全球最全面的解決方案。

  • In energy expansion, we launched AI capabilities, making much of our research and insights available through Microsoft Copilot. We launched enhanced gas, power, and commodity flow intelligence and introduce new integrated energy scenarios to help market participants make sense of a challenging global energy environment.

    在能源擴張方面,我們推出了人工智慧功能,並透過 Microsoft Copilot 提供了我們的大量研究和見解。我們推出了增強型天然氣、電力和商品流動情報,並引入了新的綜合能源場景,以幫助市場參與者了解充滿挑戰的全球能源環境。

  • And we integrated the 451 team with our Power team to connect the most sought-after themes from our customers and unlock new insights on data centers and power. We also continue to see capital flowing into the energy ecosystem, which benefits multiple divisions, including Ratings.

    我們將 451 團隊與我們的電力團隊整合在一起,以連接客戶最渴望的主題,並解鎖有關資料中心和電力的新見解。我們也看到資本持續流入能源生態系統,這惠及包括評級在內的多個部門。

  • 2025 was truly a leap forward for S&P Global in AI. We launched new AI products and features in every division, many of which were on display at our Investor Day. Using a platform-agnostic approach to GenAI solutions, we have announced collaborations with several major technology partners.

    2025 年對於標普全球在人工智慧領域來說,確實是個巨大的飛躍。我們在每個部門都推出了新的人工智慧產品和功能,其中許多產品和功能在我們的投資者日上進行了展示。我們採用與平台無關的 GenAI 解決方案,並已宣布與多家主要技術合作夥伴合作。

  • We are also moving quickly in decentralized finance. We'll have more to share in this exciting area in the quarters to come, but we were thrilled to launch the world's most well-known index, the S&P 500, on chain in collaboration with Centrifuge in 2025, in addition to other exciting innovations.

    我們在去中心化金融領域也發展迅速。在接下來的幾個季度裡,我們將在這個令人興奮的領域分享更多內容,但我們很高興能夠與 Centrifuge 合作,在 2025 年推出世界上最著名的指數——標準普爾 500 指數,以及其他令人興奮的創新。

  • Now turning to our enterprise capabilities. Two of the most impactful accomplishments of 2025 are the establishment and development of our Chief Client Office and our Enterprise Data Office. As you know, the Chief Client Office was established to deepen engagement with our large strategic customers at the most senior levels.

    現在來談談我們的企業能力。2025 年兩項最具影響力的成就分別是首席客戶辦公室和企業資料辦公室的建立和發展。如您所知,首席客戶辦公室的成立是為了加深與大型策略客戶最高層管理人員的聯繫。

  • In 2025, the CCO enabled S&P Global to bring the full enterprise value proposition to our clients. We have elevated engagement not just with our clients' business leaders, but also with their heads of technology, AI, and data science. Not only does that give us commercial advantages but also gives us early insight into our customers' needs and challenges.

    2025 年,首席客戶長 (CCO) 使標普全球能夠為我們的客戶帶來完整的企業價值主張。我們不僅提高了與客戶企業領導者的互動,還提高了與他們的科技、人工智慧和數據科學負責人的互動。這不僅能為我們帶來商業優勢,也能讓我們及早了解客戶的需求與挑戰。

  • In addition to the strategic meetings with the C-Suite, our technologists are meeting with data scientists, AI experts, and developers that work in customer organizations to co-develop solutions that we can leverage across our customer base. We are finding time and time again that the challenges impacting our largest customers are mirrored in many ways among our other customers, and the solutions that we bring to CCO clients can be sold at scale.

    除了與高階主管進行策略會議外,我們的技術人員還與客戶組織中的資料科學家、人工智慧專家和開發人員會面,共同開發我們可以在客戶群中利用的解決方案。我們一次又一次地發現,影響我們最大客戶的挑戰在許多方面也反映在其他客戶身上,而我們為首席客戶長 (CCO) 客戶帶來的解決方案可以大規模銷售。

  • While still very early, we believe that the CCO, in collaboration with division teams and with Kensho Labs, will be a meaningful driver of both revenue growth and product innovation going forward.

    雖然現在還處於非常早期的階段,但我們相信,首席商務官 (CCO) 將與各部門團隊以及 Kensho Labs 合作,成為未來收入成長和產品創新的重要推動力量。

  • Our Enterprise Data Office also made meaningful headway in 2025. We are finding more ways to bring our data together faster methods to ingest, integrate, and distribute data and are communicating more effectively across the technology teams to drive efficiencies.

    我們的企業資料辦公室在 2025 年也取得了實質進展。我們正在尋找更多方法來更快地將數據集中在一起,以攝取、整合和分發數據,並在技術團隊之間進行更有效的溝通,從而提高效率。

  • One of our goals with the EDO is to reduce run rate expenses by more than 20% by the end of 2027. And we are well ahead of pace to achieve that goal. In 2025 alone, we reduced manual data processing meaningfully with more than half of our total data workflows now processed via automation tools. We also eliminated more than 10% of applications in use and simplified the EDO technology stack to standardize on the best applications and reduce costs.

    我們與經濟發展辦公室 (EDO) 的目標之一是到 2027 年底將營運成本降低 20% 以上。我們目前進展順利,並有望實現這一目標。僅在 2025 年,我們就大幅減少了手動資料處理,超過一半的資料工作流程現在都透過自動化工具進行處理。我們還淘汰了 10% 以上的正在使用的應用程序,並簡化了 EDO 技術棧,以標準化最佳應用程式並降低成本。

  • One of the areas where we quickly saw the impact of our enterprise progress is in the integration of With Intelligence. Through our collaboration across teams, including strategy, corporate development, finance, technology, legal, and others, we were able to shorten the close process to less than six weeks. That was an incredible accomplishment for an acquisition of this size and was much faster than our original assumed time line.

    我們很快就看到企業發展帶來的影響的領域之一是與智慧技術的整合。透過策略、企業發展、財務、技術、法律等各團隊的通力合作,我們得以將交易完成流程縮短至不到六週。對於如此規模的收購而言,這是一項了不起的成就,而且比我們最初預想的時間表快得多。

  • What our data and technology teams were able to accomplish after the close was no less impressive. We linked more than 75% of the fund manager and investor data sets in less than a month through the application of Kensho Link. We enabled single sign-on or SSO, through Capital IQ Pro in January, which immediately helped us identify cross-sell opportunities.

    交易完成後,我們的數據和技術團隊所取得的成就同樣令人印象深刻。我們透過 Kensho Link 應用,在不到一個月的時間內完成了超過 75% 的基金經理和投資者資料集的關聯。 1 月份,我們透過 Capital IQ Pro 啟用了單一登入 (SSO) 功能,這立即幫助我們發現了交叉銷售機會。

  • In collaboration with our Chief Client Office and Market Intelligence, we held 20 regional training sessions for commercial teams and generated more than 200 new sales leads and cross-sell opportunities within the first 60 days. We've also already realized millions in cost synergies since the deal closed at the end of November.

    我們與首席客戶辦公室和市場情報部門合作,為銷售團隊舉辦了 20 場區域培訓課程,並在前 60 天內產生了 200 多個新的銷售線索和交叉銷售機會。自 11 月底交易完成以來,我們已經實現了數百萬美元的成本綜效。

  • It's been truly exciting to see our people embrace the enterprise mindset and come together to create value. 2025 was an incredible year of progress and results.

    看到我們的員工擁抱企業思維並齊心協力創造價值,真是令人振奮。 2025 年是碩果累累、碩果累累的一年。

  • Now I'd like to turn to 2026. We're entering 2026 with a strong backdrop for Billed Issuance, but we're lapping another record year. In 2025, Billed Issuance increased 11% and surpassed $4.3 trillion. This creates a challenging compare for 2026, but there are several drivers that give us confidence in the potential for continued positive growth. Our base case assumption, therefore, starts with Billed Issuance up low to mid-single digits in 2026.

    現在我想展望一下2026年。2026 年伊始,票據發行市場情況強勁,但我們將迎來一個創紀錄的年份。2025年,已發行票據成長11%,超過4.3兆美元。這使得 2026 年的業績比較面臨挑戰,但有幾個因素讓我們對持續正向成長的潛力充滿信心。因此,我們的基本假設是,2026 年的帳單發行量將達到個位數低至中等水平。

  • We continue to see favorable market conditions with spreads remaining low and our expectation for two rate cuts from the US Fed in the back half of the year. We also see encouraging maturity walls as I'll discuss in a moment.

    我們繼續看到有利的市場環境,利差保持在較低水平,我們預計聯準會將在今年下半年降息兩次。我們還會看到一些令人鼓舞的成熟度壁壘,我稍後會談到。

  • M&A tends to be more challenging to predict, but we saw a strong pipeline of deals announced in the back half of 2025, and continue to see pent-up demand given the dry powder in the markets. We also saw significant debt issuance from hyperscaler investments in AI infrastructure in the second half of 2025, and we expect that to continue in 2026, albeit spread more throughout the year.

    併購交易往往更難預測,但我們看到 2025 年下半年宣布的交易項目儲備充足,而且鑑於市場上的可用資金,我們繼續看到被壓抑的需求。我們也看到,在 2025 年下半年,超大規模資料中心對人工智慧基礎設施的投資發行了大量債務,我們預計這種情況將在 2026 年繼續,儘管會分散到全年。

  • Given the phasing of issuance in 2025 and the expectations for 2026, we would expect growth rates to fluctuate from quarter-to-quarter. We expect Billed Issuance growth year-over-year in the first quarter with acceleration in the second quarter as we lapped the disruption from last April. Given the difficult compare, we would then expect deceleration in the third quarter before Billed Issuance growth turns negative in the fourth quarter.

    考慮到 2025 年的發行計畫和對 2026 年的預期,我們預期成長率會逐季度波動。我們預計第一季已計費發行量將年增,第二季將加速成長,因為我們已經克服了去年四月的干擾。鑑於去年同期基數較高,我們預計第三季成長將放緩,第四季帳單發行量成長將轉為負值。

  • In the event of macroeconomic distress, elevated market volatility or uncertainty, or a slowdown in economic growth, we would expect Billed Issuance to be lower than our forecast. We could see potential upside if we see elevated M&A, additional pull forward from our year maturity walls, or greater-than-expected debt for technology and infrastructure projects.

    如果出現宏觀經濟困境、市場波動或不確定性加劇,或經濟成長放緩,我們預計已發行票據數量將低於我們的預測。如果併購活動增加,到期債務提前償還,或者科技和基礎設施項目的債務超出預期,我們就能看到潛在的上漲空間。

  • Given that refinancing activity tends to be the most predictable issuance in a given year, I wanted to spend an extra moment to discuss what we're seeing for 2026. When comparing the 2026 maturity wall now to the 2025 maturity wall a year ago, we see 12% higher maturities and a stable mix of high yield versus investment grade.

    鑑於再融資活動往往是特定年份中最可預測的發行活動,我想花點時間討論我們對 2026 年的預期。將目前的 2026 年到期債券與一年前的 2025 年到期債券進行比較,我們發現到期債券增加了 12%,並且高收益債券與投資等級債券的比例保持穩定。

  • The two-year and three-year cumulative maturity walls are also up from last year. While our base case assumption is that we do not see dramatic pull forward from the '27 and '28 walls into 2026, we note that if credit conditions remain highly favorable and we see additional reductions in interest rates, we may start to see more of that debt coming to market early.

    兩年期和三年期累積到期債務障礙也比去年上升。雖然我們的基本假設是,2027 年和 2028 年的債務高峰不會提前到 2026 年,但我們注意到,如果信貸條件仍然非常有利,並且我們看到利率進一步下降,我們可能會開始看到更多此類債務提前進入市場。

  • Now let me turn to the market factors and commercial conditions we're focused on in 2026. The list of factors on the slide illustrates the market dynamics that could influence our business either positively or negatively in 2026.

    現在讓我來談談我們在 2026 年關注的市場因素和商業環境。投影片上的因素清單說明了 2026 年可能對我們的業務產生正面或負面影響的市場動態。

  • Importantly, some of these factors can impact different parts of our business in different ways. Market volatility, for example, made temper issuance volumes and create temporary headwinds for Ratings, while at the same time driving revenue in the exchange-traded derivatives of our indices business.

    重要的是,其中一些因素會以不同的方式影響我們業務的不同部分。例如,市場波動抑制了發行量,為評等業務帶來了暫時的不利影響,但同時也推動了我們指數業務交易所交易衍生性商品的收入。

  • Generally speaking, S&P Global and our customers tend to do better in relatively stable market conditions with strong economic growth. As we look to our customer end markets, we see a reasonably healthy environment for financial services customers, and our commercial engagements have been strong.

    總的來說,標普全球和我們的客戶在市場相對穩定、經濟成長強勁的環境下往往表現較好。從我們的客戶終端市場來看,金融服務客戶的市場環境相當健康,我們的商業合作也十分強勁。

  • The energy space continues to evolve in the changing geopolitical landscape. We expect oil prices to remain fairly stable, but lower in 2026 than we saw on average over the last few years. We continue to see great engagement from our customers, strong demand for our differentiated offerings, and excitement as we push forward on product innovation and growth.

    在不斷變化的地緣政治格局中,能源領域也持續演變。我們預計2026年油價將保持相對穩定,但會低於過去幾年的平均值。我們持續看到客戶的積極參與,對我們差異化產品的需求強勁,並且隨著我們在產品創新和成長方面不斷推進,客戶也充滿熱情。

  • Before I turn it over to Eric, I want to pause and reflect on everything we accomplished in 2025 and what gives me so much confidence in the long-term success of S&P Global. We have a clearly defined and well-articulated strategy. We have assembled an incredible team of leaders, and we are all aligned behind the mission of advancing essential intelligence.

    在將發言權交給艾瑞克之前,我想停下來回顧我們在 2025 年取得的所有成就,以及是什麼讓我對標普全球的長期成功充滿信心。我們擁有清晰明確、條理分明的策略。我們組建了一支傑出的領導團隊,我們都朝著推進關鍵情報這項使命目標齊心協力。

  • When I speak to our large strategic customers, I routinely get the sense that we have deeper and more constructive relationships there than we have ever had before. We see both cyclical and secular tailwinds driving our business in the coming years.

    當我與我們的大型策略客戶交談時,我經常感覺到我們與他們之間的關係比以往任何時候都更加深入、更具建設性。我們認為,未來幾年,週期性因素和長期因素都將對我們的業務發展起到推動作用。

  • We've executed very well in our subscription business to create great momentum into 2026, and we continue to find new avenues to leverage processes and technologies to improve our productivity and free up capital to invest in future growth and steadily improve margins. I'm very proud of what we've delivered in 2025, and we're excited about our opportunity to drive value in 2026. Eric, over to you.

    我們在訂閱業務方面執行得非常出色,為 2026 年的發展奠定了良好的基礎,我們將繼續尋找新的途徑來利用流程和技術來提高生產力,釋放資金以投資於未來的成長並穩步提高利潤率。我為我們在 2025 年所取得的成就感到非常自豪,我們也對 2026 年創造價值的機會感到興奮。艾瑞克,該你了。

  • Eric Aboaf - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Eric Aboaf - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, Martina, and good morning, everyone. Starting with slide 16. Our financial results underscore our market leadership and the strength of our execution in the fourth quarter. We finished 2025 with strong momentum in our subscription businesses and encouraging signs in the market backdrop for 2026. All of this reinforces our confidence in the medium-term financial targets we laid out at our recent Investor Day.

    謝謝你,瑪蒂娜,大家早安。從第16張投影片開始。我們的財務表現凸顯了我們的市場領導地位以及第四季度的出色執行力。2025 年末,我們的訂閱業務發展勢頭強勁,2026 年的市場前景也令人鼓舞。所有這些都增強了我們對近期投資者日上所訂定的中期財務目標的信心。

  • Ratings and Indices each posted double-digit growth during the quarter, driven by robust debt issuance and equity market appreciation inflows, enabling us to make strategic incremental investments in key growth areas across the enterprise. We're also pleased with our strong subscription growth in both Market Intelligence and Energy.

    本季評級和指數均實現了兩位數成長,這得益於強勁的債務發行和股票市場增值帶來的資金流入,使我們能夠對企業各關鍵成長領域進行策略性增量投資。我們對市場情報和能源領域的訂閱用戶成長強勁也感到滿意。

  • Reported revenue grew 9% and our organic constant currency revenue rose 8%. Continued expense discipline allowed us to make important strategic investments in the fourth quarter while still expanding margins. Adjusted expenses increased 8% resulting in 60 basis points of year-on-year margin expansion to 47.3%.

    報告顯示,營收成長了 9%,以固定匯率計算的有機收入成長了 8%。持續的成本控制使我們能夠在第四季進行重要的策略投資,同時也能擴大利潤率。經調整後的費用增加了 8%,導致年比利潤率增加 60 個基點,達到 47.3%。

  • As you'll recall, we divested the OSTTRA joint venture in early October. And if we exclude the contribution from OSTTRA in 2024 as well, margin expansion would have been 130 basis points year-over-year.

    您應該還記得,我們​​在 10 月初剝離了 OSTTRA 合資企業。如果排除 OSTTRA 在 2024 年的貢獻,利潤率將年增 130 個基點。

  • We delivered 14% growth in adjusted diluted EPS in the quarter, resulting in full-year EPS at the higher end of our most recent guidance range and well above the initial guidance range we provided last February. While our tax rate for the full year was within our guidance range, it did come in a bit above our internal expectations and near the high end of guidance. Had our tax rate come in at the midpoint of guidance, EPS would have been approximately $0.08 higher.

    本季調整後稀釋每股盈餘成長了 14%,使得全年每股盈餘達到我們最新預期範圍的上限,並且遠高於我們去年 2 月提供的初始預期範圍。雖然我們全年的稅率在預期範圍內,但略高於我們的內部預期,接近預期上限。如果我們的稅率達到預期的中點,每股盈餘將增加約 0.08 美元。

  • Now turning to our key strategic investment areas on slide 17. Private Markets revenue grew 16% year-over-year, driven primarily by the Ratings and Market Intelligence divisions. Ratings was the largest contributor to that growth, underscoring continued strong demand for debt ratings, private credit analysis, and credit estimates in the private credit market.

    現在請看第 17 頁投影片,了解我們的主要策略投資領域。私募市場收入年增 16%,主要得益於評級和市場情報部門的成長。評級是推動這一成長的最大因素,凸顯了私人信貸市場對債務評級、私人信貸分析和信用評估的持續強勁需求。

  • Energy Transition and Sustainability revenue decreased 3% to $101 million in the quarter. This decline was not entirely unexpected and reflects the ongoing uncertainties that have led many customers to slow spending in this area, particularly in consulting engagements and one-time transaction spend in certain geographies. While we remain confident in the long-term growth of this important initiative, our outlook for 2026 does not depend on a meaningful recovery in the near term.

    本季能源轉型和永續發展收入下降 3% 至 1.01 億美元。這一下滑並非完全出乎意料,反映了持續存在的不確定性,導致許多客戶放緩了在該領域的支出,尤其是在諮詢項目和某些地區的單次交易​​支出方面。儘管我們對這項重要措施的長期發展充滿信心,但我們對 2026 年的展望並不取決於短期內經濟的實質復甦。

  • Turning to Vitality. As we build on the new products, features, and enhancements that were highlighted earlier, I'm pleased to report we generated $470 million in Vitality revenue in the fourth quarter and continue to deliver a Vitality Index of 12%. Going forward, while we do not intend to provide explicit disclosures on these metrics in this particular format, we will continue to provide investors with timely updates on the progress we make, both qualitatively and quantitatively.

    轉向活力。在我們繼續推進之前重點介紹的新產品、功能和改進措施的同時,我很高興地報告,我們在第四季度創造了 4.7 億美元的活力收入,並繼續保持 12% 的活力指數。展望未來,雖然我們不打算以這種特定形式明確披露這些指標,但我們將繼續向投資者及時提供我們在定性和定量方面取得的進展的最新資訊。

  • Turning to our divisions on slide 18. Market Intelligence reported revenue grew 7%, and organic constant currency revenue grew 5% in the fourth quarter. Subscription revenue, which constitutes roughly 85% of Market Intelligence grew approximately 7%, both organically and as reported.

    接下來請看第 18 頁投影片,了解我們的部門劃分。市場情報部門報告稱,第四季度收入增長了 7%,按固定匯率計算的有機收入增長了 5%。訂閱收入約佔市場情報收入的 85%,無論是自然成長或報告成長,都成長了約 7%。

  • One-time revenue and volume-driven revenue were flattish and aggregate in the quarter. Subscription revenue growth remains the single most important indicator of the health and execution of Market Intelligence, and we are very pleased with the results the team delivered.

    本季一次性營收和銷售驅動型營收基本持平且總額較高。訂閱收入成長仍然是衡量市場情報業務健康狀況和執行情況的最重要指標,我們對團隊的成果非常滿意。

  • Data Analytics and Insights reported revenue growth of 7%, which included a $9 million revenue contribution from the With Intelligence acquisition. The performance was anchored by robust subscription sales of Capital IQ Pro and Visible Alpha.

    數據分析與洞察部門報告稱,收入成長了 7%,其中包括收購 With Intelligence 帶來的 900 萬美元收入貢獻。Capital IQ Pro 和 Visible Alpha 的強勁訂閱銷售是業績成長的主要動力。

  • Credit and Risk Solutions revenue growth was 10%, driven by strong subscription sales of RatingsXpress. We also benefited from some upfront revenue recognition tied to a major renewal in the Financial Risk Analytics product group, which lifted growth above what we had seen in the first three quarters. Enterprise Solutions posted 4% revenue growth, which includes a 2 percentage point headwind from EDM and thinkFolio, both of which saw declines year-over-year in the fourth quarter.

    信用與風險解決方案營收成長 10%,主要得益於 RatingsXpress 訂閱銷售的強勁成長。我們也受惠於金融風險分析產品組的一項重大續約帶來的部分預收收入,這使得成長超過了前三個季度的成長水準。企業解決方案業務營收成長 4%,但其中 EDM 和 thinkFolio 業務的營收年減 2 個百分點,導致營收下滑。

  • Wall Street Office, Notice Manager, and Corporate Actions all supported the underlying revenue growth across this part of our MI franchise. However, we did see a slowdown in our volume-driven products in the quarter that are tied to capital markets activity. This activity provided a tailwind to recurring variable revenue growth in the first three quarters of the year, but in this quarter.

    華爾街辦公室、通知管理器和公司行動都為我們 MI 特許經營業務這一部分的基礎收入成長提供了支持。然而,本季我們確實看到與資本市場活動相關的銷售驅動型產品成長放緩。這項活動在今年前三個季度為經常性可變收入成長提供了助力,但在本季卻並非如此。

  • Adjusted expenses increased 7% year-over-year driven by higher compensation expense, additional long-term strategic investments, and higher-than-expected expenses from With Intelligence given the accelerated close, partially offset by ongoing productivity initiatives. This resulted in a 32.2% operating margins in Market Intelligence for the quarter.

    調整後的費用年增 7%,主要原因是薪酬支出增加、額外的長期策略投資以及由於加速完成交易而導致 With Intelligence 的支出高於預期,但部分被持續的生產力提升計劃所抵消。這使得市場情報部門本季的營業利益率為 32.2%。

  • Given the sales outperformance we experienced in our market-driven businesses, both Ratings and Indices, we chose to pull forward some of our 2026 investments in Market Intelligence beyond what was contemplated in our latest 2025 guidance. Without the incremental investments in the quarter and earlier than expected close of the With Intelligence acquisition, MI's margin would have been approximately 80 basis points higher in the fourth quarter and 20 basis points higher for the full year.

    鑑於我們在市場驅動型業務(包括評級和指數)中取得的超額銷售業績,我們決定將部分 2026 年市場情報投資提前到 2025 年,超出了我們最新 2025 年指導意見中的預期。如果沒有本季的額外投資以及提前完成對 With Intelligence 的收購,MI 的第四季利潤率將高出約 80 個基點,全年利潤率將高出約 20 個基點。

  • Now turning to Ratings on slide 19. Ratings revenue increased 12% year-over-year or 10% on an organic constant currency basis. The increase was balanced across both transaction and non-transaction revenue streams, underscoring the breadth of our market coverage.

    現在來看第 19 頁的評分。評級收入較去年同期成長 12%,以固定匯率計算成長 10%。交易收入和非交易收入均達到均衡成長,凸顯了我們市場所涵蓋的廣度。

  • Transaction revenue grew 12% in the fourth quarter, driven primarily by strong issuance volumes and investment grade. While we also saw a healthy growth across high yield, structured finance, and governance, we did see a low double-digit decline in Billed Issuance from bank loans.

    第四季交易收入成長 12%,主要得益於強勁的發行量和投資等級債券。雖然我們也看到高收益債券、結構性融資和公司治理方面實現了健康成長,但銀行貸款的票據發行量出現了兩位數的下降。

  • That mix shift out of high-yield and bank loans and into investment grade created an unusually large gap between Billed Issuance growth of 28% and transaction revenue growth of 12%. Non-transaction revenue increased 11%, driven primarily by higher annual fee revenue from Surveillance. We also saw a very strong growth in CRISIL, and we nearly tied last quarter's record in Ratings Evaluation Services revenue.

    這種從高收益債券和銀行貸款向投資等級債券的組合轉變,造成了債券發行量增長 28% 與交易收入增長 12% 之間異常大的差距。非交易收入成長了 11%,主要得益於監控業務年度費用收入的增加。我們也看到 CRISIL 實現了非常強勁的成長,評級評估服務收入幾乎追平了上一季的紀錄。

  • Adjusted expenses increased 6%, reflecting higher compensation costs and continued strategic investments in our people, technology, and product development. This contributed to the division's 210 basis points of margin expansion to 61.8%.

    調整後的費用增加了 6%,反映出更高的薪酬成本以及我們在人員、技術和產品開發方面的持續策略投資。這使得該部門的利潤率提高了 210 個基點,達到 61.8%。

  • Now turning to S&P Global Energy on slide 20. Energy revenue grew 6% in the fourth quarter, driven by continued strength in energy resources, data and insights, and price assessments. We continue to see very strong demand for our subscription offerings, including Platts benchmarks and our differentiated data, research, and thought leadership.

    現在來看看第 20 頁的標普全球能源部門。第四季能源收入成長 6%,主要得益於能源資源、數據和洞察以及價格評估的持續強勁成長。我們持續看到市場對我們的訂閱服務(包括普氏能源資訊基準以及我們差異化的數據、研究和思想領導)有著非常強勁的需求。

  • Sanctions announced in the second half created a $3 million headwind on fourth quarter revenue, which negatively impacted Energy Resources Data and Insights and Upstream Data and Insights revenue. We expect to lap those sanctions by the end of Q3 2026.

    下半年宣布的製裁措施給第四季度收入造成了 300 萬美元的不利影響,對能源資源數據與洞察以及上游數據與洞察的收入產生了負面影響。我們預計到 2026 年第三季末將解除這些制裁。

  • Energy Resources Data and Insights and Price Assessments grew 9% and 8%, respectively, driven by strength in petroleum gas, power, and renewables. Advisory and transactional services revenue decreased by 5% as we continue to see some softness in consulting and events revenue. This was partially offset by double-digit growth in Global Trading Services or higher trading volumes in petroleum, gas, and LNG offset the declines in one-time revenues.

    受石油天然氣、電力和再生能源的強勁表現推動,能源資源數據與洞察以及價格評估分別成長了 9% 和 8%。諮詢和交易服務收入下降了 5%,諮詢和活動收入持續疲軟。全球貿易服務兩位數的成長,以及石油、天然氣和液化天然氣交易量的增加,部分抵消了一次性收入的下降。

  • Upstream Data and Insights revenue increased slightly in the quarter, driven by upfront revenue recognition of certain software renewals. We're continuing to lay the groundwork for our Upstream transformation strategy and see a path towards stabilization in 2026 through a combination of client platform upgrades, expanded distribution partnerships, and dedicated specialists in our go-to-market team. However, given the backdrop of lower oil prices and ongoing market uncertainty, it will take several quarters before these management actions will drive growth in Upstream.

    本季上游數據和洞察收入略有成長,主要得益於某些軟體續訂的預收收入。我們正在繼續為上游轉型策略奠定基礎,並認為透過客戶平台升級、擴大分銷合作夥伴關係以及市場推廣團隊中的專職專家,將在 2026 年實現穩定。然而,鑑於油價走低和市場持續不確定性,這些管理措施需要幾個季度才能推動上游業務的成長。

  • Adjusted expenses rose 5%, driven by higher compensation costs and ongoing investments in growth initiatives, partially offset by productivity initiatives. Operating profit for the Energy division increased 7% and operating margin expanded by 50 basis points to 45.5%.

    調整後的費用增加了 5%,主要原因是薪酬成本上升和對成長計畫的持續投資,但部分被提高生產力的舉措所抵消。能源部門的營業利潤成長了 7%,營業利潤率提高了 50 個基點,達到 45.5%。

  • Now turning to S&P Dow Jones Indices on slide 21. Revenue grew by 14%, with double-digit growth across all business lines, including asset-linked fees, which benefited from both higher AUM and net inflows. Revenue associated with asset-linked fees grew 13% in the fourth quarter. This was driven by equity market appreciation and strong net inflows into products based on S&P Dow Jones Indices.

    現在請看第 21 頁投影片,了解標普道瓊指數。營收成長了 14%,所有業務線均實現了兩位數成長,包括資產相關費用,這得益於更高的資產管理規模和淨流入。第四季與資產掛鉤費用相關的收入成長了 13%。這主要得益於股票市場上漲以及基於標普道瓊斯指數的產品資金的強勁淨流入。

  • Exchange-traded derivative revenue was up 20%, driven by strength in SPX ETD volumes. Data and custom subscriptions increased 13% year-over-year, driven by new business growth and end-of-day contracts, and included a roughly 2-percentage-point contribution from revenue related to the ARC Research acquisition.

    受標普500指數交易所交易衍生性商品交易量強勁推動,交易所交易衍生性商品收入成長了20%。數據和客製化訂閱年增 13%,這主要得益於新業務成長和當日合約的簽訂,其中約 2 個百分點來自與 ARC Research 收購相關的營收貢獻。

  • Adjusted expenses were up 11% year-over-year, driven by higher compensation costs and investments in growth initiatives. Indices operating profit grew 16% and operating margin expanded 90 basis points to 68.8%.

    調整後的費用年增 11%,主要原因是薪酬成本增加和對成長計畫的投資。指數營業利益成長16%,營業利益率成長90個基點至68.8%。

  • Now turning to Mobility on slide 22. Revenue grew 8% year-over-year with double-digit growth in dealer and financials and other. Customers continue to rely on the unique data and solutions from CARFAX, driving strong subscription growth despite a complicated environment for automotive OEMs. Dealer revenue increased 10% year-over-year owing to the healthy new customer growth in both CARFAX and automotiveMastermind.

    現在來看第 22 頁的「移動性」部分。營收年增 8%,其中經銷商、金融機構及其他業務均達到兩位數成長。儘管汽車 OEM 廠商面臨複雜的市場環境,但客戶仍依賴 CARFAX 的獨特數據和解決方案,推動了訂閱量的強勁成長。由於 CARFAX 和 automotiveMastermind 的新客戶數量健康成長,經銷商營收年增 10%。

  • Manufacturing revenue grew 1% year-over-year as tariffs and regulatory uncertainty weighed on demand for consulting and lower recalls. Financials and other increased 11% as the business line continues to benefit from strong underwriting volumes and commercial momentum.

    受關稅和監管不確定性影響,諮詢需求下降,製造業收入年增 1%,召回數量也隨之減少。財務及其他業務成長了 11%,因為該業務線繼續受益於強勁的承保量和商業勢頭。

  • Adjusted expenses grew 7%, driven by continued advertising and promotional investment, (technical difficulty) lapping of elevated incentive compensation last year. Mobility's operating margin expanded 70 basis points year-over-year to 35.4%.

    調整後的費用增加了 7%,主要原因是持續的廣告和促銷投資,(技術難題)以及去年較高的激勵性薪酬的到期。行動業務的營業利潤率年增 70 個基點,達到 35.4%。

  • Before I move on to our guidance for 2026, I'd like to provide you with an update on our planned spin of the Mobility business on slide 23. We have made significant progress against our separation plan, and we are excited to announce at the NADA conference last week that we've chosen Mobility Global as the name of the new soon-to-be independent company.

    在介紹我們對 2026 年的指導意見之前,我想在第 23 頁投影片中向您介紹我們計劃分拆移動旅行業務的最新情況。我們在分拆計劃方面取得了重大進展,我們很高興在上週的 NADA 會議上宣布,我們已選擇 Mobility Global 作為即將成立的新獨立公司的名稱。

  • Since our last earnings call, we have also confidentially filed the Form 10 with the SEC, completed the senior leadership appointments, including naming Matt Calderone as CFO designate. Looking ahead, our next major milestones are well defined. We will continue to make progress in the separation process for the first quarter.

    自上次財報電話會議以來,我們也秘密向美國證券交易委員會提交了 10 表格,完成了高級領導層任命,包括任命 Matt Calderone 為候任財務長。展望未來,我們接下來的主要里程碑已經明確。第一季度,我們將繼續推進分離進程。

  • In the second quarter, we expect to file our Form 10 publicly, and the Mobility global team expects to host an Investor Day and launch its equity roadshow. We also expect to launch a public debt offering for Mobility at some point in the second quarter, targeting an investment-grade rating.

    第二季度,我們預計將公開提交 10 號表格,移動出行全球團隊預計將舉辦投資者日並啟動股權路演。我們也預計在第二季某個時候推出行動出行業務的公開債券發行,目標是獲得投資等級評級。

  • From a financial reporting and guidance perspective, S&P Global will continue to fully consolidate Mobility Global in our financial statements and 2026 guidance until the separation is complete. We also want to ensure investors have clear comparability and a transparent view of S&P Global's post-separation financial profile.

    從財務報告和指引的角度來看,在分拆完成之前,標普全球將繼續在我們的財務報表和 2026 年指引中全面合併 Mobility Global。我們也希望確保投資者能夠清楚地比較和透明地了解標普全球分拆後的財務狀況。

  • Upon completion of the spin, we intend to provide recast financials for the four quarters of 2025 and any 2026 periods reported, adjusted to exclude Mobility's contribution along with other relevant adjustments as outlined at our Investor Day. We also expect to issue updated 2026 financial guidance at that time, excluding Mobility.

    分拆完成後,我們將提供 2025 年四個季度和 2026 年任何報告期間的重述財務報表,並根據我們在投資者日上概述的內容,調整報表以排除 Mobility 的貢獻以及其他相關調整。屆時,我們也將發布更新後的 2026 年財務指引,其中不包括行動旅遊業務。

  • Now turning to guidance on slide 24. I'd like to start by framing the key assumptions that underpin our guidance so that you can see what's driving the outlook, particularly around margin expansion and certain inputs for our market-driven businesses.

    現在來看第 24 頁的指導說明。首先,我想闡明支撐我們績效指引的關鍵假設,以便大家了解推動績效展望的因素,特別是利潤率擴張以及我們市場驅動型業務的某些投入。

  • Our guidance rests on a simple premise. We plan to operate more efficiently while continuing to reinvest to drive organic growth. On investment priorities, we're focused on a few clear themes. First is product innovation and continuing to enhance our benchmark's proprietary data and workflow tools to support organic growth.

    我們的指導原則是基於一個簡單的前提。我們計劃提高營運效率,同時繼續進行再投資以推動內生成長。在投資重點方面,我們關注幾個明確的主題。首先是產品創新,以及不斷增強我們基準測試的專有數據和工作流程工具,以支援有機成長。

  • Second is investment in strategic growth areas like private markets and energy expansion where we see durable, long-term demand, and opportunities to leverage synergies across multiple divisions. Third is our investment in AI for both our products and for our internal productivity. And finally, we're extending our geographic reach and client segment coverage so that we can bring our strongest offerings to more customers and capture new opportunities over time.

    其次,我們將投資於策略性成長領域,例如私募市場和能源擴張,因為我們認為這些領域存在持久的長期需求,並且有機會利用多個部門之間的協同效應。第三,我們在人工智慧領域的投資,既用於我們的產品,也用於提高我們的內部生產力。最後,我們將擴大地理覆蓋範圍和客戶群覆蓋範圍,以便將我們最強大的產品和服務帶給更多客戶,並隨著時間的推移抓住新的機會。

  • On productivity initiatives, we're driving efficiencies through several work streams, including enhancements and data operations, software engineering and research. We'll also continue scaling internal GenAI initiatives, which are improving throughput and speed in a meaningful way. And we're pairing these tools with end-to-end process reengineering, so the productivity gains are sustainable, long-term value generators that scale, not just isolated use cases.

    在提高生產力方面,我們正在透過多個工作流程來提高效率,包括改進和資料操作、軟體工程和研究。我們將繼續擴大內部 GenAI 計劃的規模,這些計劃正在以有意義的方式提高吞吐量和速度。我們將這些工具與端到端的流程重組相結合,因此生產力的提高是可持續的、可規模化的長期價值創造者,而不僅僅是孤立的用例。

  • Turning to our market assumptions. In Ratings, our outlook assumes Billed Issuance will be up low to mid-single digits in 2026, reflecting what we can see today in the maturity wall and underlying market conditions while recognizing that M&A, infrastructure, and other opportunistic issuance remains unpredictable.

    接下來談談我們的市場假設。在評等方面,我們的展望假設 2026 年已付息債券發行量將成長個位數低至中等,這反映了我們今天在到期債券和潛在市場狀況中看到的趨勢,同時也認識到併購、基礎設施和其他機會性發行仍然難以預測。

  • In Indices, we assume market appreciation of 5% to 7% from January 1 to December 31, consistent with the assumptions underpinning the medium-term targets from our Investor Day. Our exchange-traded derivatives business remains an important driver for indices and our guidance assumes low single-digit growth in ETD volumes.

    在指數方面,我們假設從 1 月 1 日到 12 月 31 日市場上漲 5% 至 7%,這與我們投資者日中提出的中期目標的假設一致。我們的交易所交易衍生性商品業務仍然是指數的重要驅動力,我們的預期是交易所交易衍生性商品交易量將維持個位數低成長。

  • In Market Intelligence, we expect continued momentum and healthy growth from our subscription-based offerings. We are taking a prudent approach to 2026 guidance for Market Intelligence, reflecting the unpredictability of some of our volume-driven products. Our guidance today assumes fairly modest growth in one-time sales as well as those volume-driven products.

    在市場情報領域,我們預計訂閱服務將持續保持成長動能並實現健康成長。我們對 2026 年市場情報業務的指導方針採取了謹慎的態度,這反映了我們一些以銷售為導向的產品的不可預測性。我們目前的預測是基於一次性銷售以及銷售驅動型產品的成長較為溫和的假設。

  • Our outlook for energy reflects the market environment and sanctions as discussed previously. This sanctions assumption remains unchanged based on the current environment and the expectation that the duration and scope of the sanctions will not materially change.

    如前所述,我們對能源前景的展望反映了市場環境和製裁的影響。基於當前情勢以及對制裁的持續時間和範圍不會發生實質變化的預期,這項制裁假設保持不變。

  • This leads us to our guidance for the Enterprise on slide 25. On an organic constant currency basis, we expect revenue growth of 6% to 8%. On a reported basis, growth is expected to be approximately 60 basis points higher, reflecting the impact from acquisitions, divestitures, and currency movements.

    這就引出了我們在第 25 頁針對企業的指導。以固定匯率計算,我們預期營收將成長6%至8%。以報告數據計算,預計成長將高出約 60 個基點,這反映了收購、剝離和匯率波動的影響。

  • Excluding the contributions from OSTTRA in 2025, we expect to expand margins in 2026 by 50 to 75 basis points. Including the impact of OSTTRA, we would expect adjusted operating margins to expand by 10 to 35 basis points. Finally, adjusted diluted EPS is expected to be in the range of $19.40 to $19.65, representing growth of 9% to 10% year-over-year, driven by operating income growth and share count reduction, partially offset by a higher tax rate.

    不計入 OSTTRA 在 2025 年的貢獻,我們預計 2026 年利潤率將擴大 50 至 75 個基點。考慮到 OSTTRA 的影響,我們預計調整後的營業利潤率將成長 10 至 35 個基點。最後,經調整後的稀釋每股收益預計在 19.40 美元至 19.65 美元之間,年增 9% 至 10%,主要得益於營業收入增長和股份數量減少,但部分被較高的稅率所抵消。

  • We're not providing 2026 GAAP guidance at this time other than for reported revenue and capital expenditures. Because the timing of the Mobility spin remains uncertain, we cannot reliably predict all the GAAP components. Upon completion of the spin, our plan is to initiate GAAP guidance for 2026.

    目前,除已公佈的收入和資本支出外,我們不提供 2026 年 GAAP 指引。由於 Mobility 自旋的時間仍不確定,我們無法可靠地預測所有 GAAP 成分。分拆完成後,我們的計畫是啟動 2026 年的 GAAP 指引。

  • Let us now turn to our division revenue outlook for 2026 on slide 26. For Market Intelligence, we expect to sustain solid organic constant currency growth in 2026 in the range of 5.5% to 7%, supported by continued strength in subscription revenue, which we would expect to grow closer to the top half of the range, partially offset by the assumptions of slower growth and onetime sales and volume-driven products.

    現在讓我們來看看第 26 頁投影片,了解我們對 2026 年部門收入的展望。對於市場情報業務,我們預計 2026 年將保持穩健的有機固定匯率增長,增幅在 5.5% 至 7% 之間,這得益於訂閱收入的持續強勁增長,我們預計訂閱收入的增長將接近該區間的上半部分,但部分會被增長放緩的假設以及一次性銷售和驅動型產品的銷售所抵消。

  • In Ratings, we expect to see organic constant currency growth in the range of 4% to 7% in 2026. That outlook assumes Billed Issuance growth in the low to mid-single-digit range, as highlighted earlier. Our guidance assumes transaction revenue and non-transaction revenue grow at similar rates in 2026.

    在評級方面,我們預計 2026 年有機固定匯率成長率將在 4% 至 7% 之間。如前所述,該展望假設已計費發行量成長處於個位數低至中等水平。我們的預測假設 2026 年交易收入和非交易收入的成長速度相近。

  • While we expect strong refinancing activity, M&A activity is inherently difficult to predict as is the potential spend on technology infrastructure. We have also seen softness in bank loan volumes in January and we are reflecting modest expectations for those volumes in our guidance as a result. As always, we expect to refine our issuance forecast as we progress through the year.

    雖然我們預計再融資活動將十分活躍,但併購活動本身就難以預測,技術基礎設施的潛在支出也是如此。我們也注意到1月銀行貸款量有所疲軟,因此,我們在業績指引中也對貸款量給出了較保守的預期。與往年一樣,我們預計隨著時間的推移,我們將不斷改善發行預測。

  • For energy, we expect organic constant currency revenue growth of 5.5% to 7% in 2026. We'll continue to manage through known headwinds, including sanctions-related impacts and the work we're doing to stabilize and reposition parts of the Upstream portfolio. Our guidance assumes approximately 60 basis points of headwind from the customer sanctions I discussed previously.

    對於能源產業,我們預計 2026 年有機收入(以固定匯率計算)將成長 5.5% 至 7%。我們將繼續應對已知的各種不利因素,包括制裁相關的衝擊,以及我們正在進行的穩定和重新定位上游業務組合部分的工作。我們的預期考慮到我之前提到的客戶制裁將帶來約 60 個基點的不利影響。

  • For Mobility, we expect organic constant currency growth of 7.5% to 9%, reflecting continued strength in the subscription base and the mission-critical nature of the products. We remain confident in the long-term growth for manufacturing, our guidance for 2026 assumes only modest growth until we see more concrete signs of acceleration.

    對於行動業務,我們預計有機成長率(以固定匯率計算)為 7.5% 至 9%,這反映了訂閱用戶基礎的持續強勁以及產品的關鍵任務性質。我們對製造業的長期成長仍然充滿信心,我們對 2026 年的預測是,在看到更具體的加速成長跡象之前,只會保持溫和成長。

  • And for Indices, we expect organic constant currency revenue growth of 10% to 12%. After two consecutive years of strong equity market performance, we're assuming a more normalized equity backdrop. Our exchange-traded derivatives remain an important contributor, particularly in volatile periods, and we continue to invest in innovation across new products, asset classes, and distribution channels to support growth.

    對於指數業務,我們預期有機固定匯率營收將成長10%至12%。在經歷了連續兩年強勁的股市表現之後,我們預計股市環境將更加正常化。我們的交易所交易衍生性商品仍然是重要的貢獻者,尤其是在市場波動時期,我們將繼續投資於新產品、資產類別和分銷管道的創新,以支持成長。

  • With that, let me turn the call back over to Mark for your questions.

    那麼,現在我把電話交還給馬克,回答大家的問題。

  • Mark Grant - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations

    Mark Grant - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations

  • (Event Instructions)

    (活動須知)

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ashish Sabadra, RBC Capital Markets.

    Ashish Sabadra,加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

  • Ashish Sabadra - Analyst

    Ashish Sabadra - Analyst

  • I just wanted to drill down on Market Intelligence, some of the softness that we saw on the volume-driven products. I was wondering if you could provide any incremental color? And as we think about 2026, some of the unpredictability that you mentioned on the volume driven, if you could also provide some color on that front?

    我只是想深入探討市場情報,以及我們在銷售驅動型產品方面看到的一些疲軟現象。我想知道您是否可以提供任何遞增的顏色?當我們展望 2026 年時,您提到了一些關於成交量驅動的不可預測性,您能否也為這方面提供一些細節?

  • Eric Aboaf - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Eric Aboaf - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Ashish, it's Eric. Thanks very much for the question. As you know, Market Intelligence is comprised of a number of different revenue areas. Subscription revenue growth is about 85% of the revenues. And it was up nicely in the quarter at 6.6%. So a nice step off as we go into 2026 as well and built up nicely from the first half of the year.

    阿什什,我是艾瑞克。非常感謝您的提問。如您所知,市場情報由多個不同的收入領域組成。訂閱收入成長約佔總收入的 85%。本季成長了6.6%,表現不錯。所以,進入 2026 年之際,這是一個不錯的開端,而且也是從上半年開始穩定發展的結果。

  • At the same time, we do have volume-driven revenue growth in Market Intelligence. And that's really driven by a series of different products. And what we find is that in some quarters, it's higher and some quarters a little lower. It's been running a little higher for the first three quarters of the year, a little lower in the fourth quarter, and we expect it to bounce around from time to time.

    同時,我們在市場情報方面也實現了以銷售驅動的收入成長。而這其實是由一系列不同的產品所推動的。我們發現,在某些地區,這個數字較高,而在其他地區則略低一些。今年前三個季度匯率略高,第四季略低,我們預期匯率會不時波動。

  • On the positive side, we've had some really nice volumetric revenue growth in WSO, Notice Manager, some of the corporate actions. And then some of the primary book building, in particular, munis, where we saw some nice underlying muni issuances in the marketplace, and that reverberated back into us as revenue growth.

    從積極的方面來看,WSO、Notice Manager 以及一些公司行為都帶來了非常可觀的銷售收入成長。然後,一些主要簿記建檔,特別是市政債券,我們在市場上看到了一些不錯的市政債券發行,這反過來又為我們帶來了收入成長。

  • At the same time, we've had other products that have gone the other way, which will happen from time to time. So in primary market book building, some of the investment-grade in fixed income products came in a little lighter, equity issuances came in a little lighter. And that's a mix of what's happening in the marketplace, which clients our lead book runners versus co-book runners and so forth and has -- and also has an effect.

    同時,我們也遇到其他產品出現相反的情況,這種情況會不時發生。因此,在第一級市場簿記建檔過程中,部分投資等級固定收益產品的發行量略有減少,股票發行量也略有減少。這其中既有市場因素的影響,也有市場因素的影響,例如客戶、主圖書館員與聯合圖書館員等等,而這些因素也會產生影響。

  • We also have a very attractive product in ClearPar which continues to do very well. It's driven by other factors like the number of loans traded. And that, as you know, was lower this quarter, and you saw that in the Ratings business. You saw that in this business. And so also had some lower volume-driven revenues.

    我們還有一款非常有吸引力的產品 ClearPar,它的表現一直都很好。這也受到其他因素的影響,例如貸款交易數量。如您所知,本季度這一數字有所下降,您在評級業務中也看到了這一點。你在這個行業裡已經看到了這一點。因此,銷量驅動型收入也略有下降。

  • So it's a mix. We operate probably -- I've given you examples of six or seven products or 20 to 25 products that have volume-driven drivers. And these will just move around with market dynamics that are generally things that we can monitor and measure and so forth.

    所以是混合型的。我們經營的可能是──我已經舉了六、七種產品或二、三十種產品的例子,這些產品都是由銷售驅動的。這些都會隨著市場動態而變化,而這些動態通常是我們可以監控和衡量的。

  • Going forward, as you asked, we're optimistic about the market environment. Capital markets activity has been steady issuances and so forth. But we need to see how that plays out. And that's why, as part of our 2026 guidance, we guided to Market Intelligence in the 5.5% to 7%.

    展望未來,正如您所問,我們對市場環境持樂觀態度。資本市場活動一直保持穩定,發行等活動持續進行。但我們需要看看事情會如何發展。因此,作為我們 2026 年業績指引的一部分,我們預期市場情報的成長幅度為 5.5% 至 7%。

  • We guided to Subscription revenue growth in the top half of that range. And we said we'll be a little conservative or careful, I'd say, on the volumetric revenue growth because we think it will bounce back, but it's just hard to tell exactly when and how and when. And we just want to work through quarter-by-quarter.

    我們預計訂閱收入成長將處於該區間的上半部。我們說過,對於銷售收入成長,我們會採取稍微保守或謹慎的態度,因為我們認為它會反彈,但很難確切地說出何時以及如何反彈。我們只想按季度逐步推進。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • George Tong, Goldman Sachs.

    喬治唐,高盛集團。

  • George Tong - Analyst

    George Tong - Analyst

  • Anthropic recently announced a suite of 11 open source plug-ins for Claude cohort. Can you talk a bit about how you expect this competitive development to impact S&P's business?

    Anthropic 最近宣布推出一套 11 款適用於 Claude cohort 的開源插件。您能否談談您預期這種競爭態勢將如何影響標普的業務?

  • Martina Cheung - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Martina Cheung - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Hi, George. It's Martina. Thanks so much for the question. Look, we think these kinds of announcements are really exciting. And we're actively involved in advancing this technology and actually helping to establish these ecosystem ourselves. As you know, we've worked with pretty much every major player in the AI space for some time. And we see AI, really, is a net tailwind for the business.

    是的。你好,喬治。是瑪蒂娜。非常感謝你的提問。你看,我們認為這類消息真的令人興奮。我們積極參與推動這項技術的發展,並實際幫助建立這些生態系統。如您所知,我們已經與人工智慧領域幾乎所有主要參與者合作了一段時間。我們看到,人工智慧其實對企業來說是一股順風。

  • You'll remember that last year, Claude for financial services launched and S&P Global is now one of the leading providers of financial data to our customers through Claude for financial services. And we have a very good relationship with Anthropic. You've also seen in December, we announced a partnership with Google that gives us access to Gemini Enterprise. And of course, yesterday, we also announced our MCP connector for OpenAI.

    您可能還記得,去年 Claude for financial services 上線,而標普全球現在已成為透過 Claude for financial services 向我們的客戶提供金融數據的主要供應商之一。我們與 Anthropic 公司保持著非常好的關係。您可能也看到了,我們在 12 月宣布與 Google 建立合作夥伴關係,這使我們能夠使用 Gemini Enterprise。當然,昨天我們也發布了適用於 OpenAI 的 MCP 連接器。

  • And if I go back to Investor Day, it's important to remember what we laid out for you. So first, we're embedding leading AI tech in our products, and that's really to make sure our customers have access to that great AI functionality without needing to leave our platforms. And of course, for customers who want to use third-party platforms with our flexible distribution philosophy, they can get access to the data they're licensing wherever they want to use it.

    如果我回顧投資者日,重要的是要記住我們當時向你們闡述的內容。首先,我們將領先的人工智慧技術嵌入到我們的產品中,這確實是為了確保我們的客戶無需離開我們的平台即可獲得強大的人工智慧功能。當然,對於希望使用第三方平台並秉持我們靈活的分發理念的客戶而言,他們可以隨時隨地存取他們所獲得許可的資料。

  • And we've been doing this for years. We have hundreds of distribution partners and adding the LLM players to this as another group of distribution partners. And with that, of course, we maintain control of the commercial relationship directly with those customers and we don't allow the LLM providers to train on S&P Global data.

    我們多年來一直這樣做。我們有數百家分銷合作夥伴,現在將LLM玩家也納入其中,作為另一批分銷合作夥伴。當然,透過這種方式,我們直接控制與這些客戶的商業關係,我們也不允許LLM提供者使用標普全球數據進行培訓。

  • And then secondly, we have accelerated the deployment of AI internally, and that's really enabling us to accelerate our time-to-market for product innovation. We've scaled our productivity initiatives, and we're improving the timings and quality of our benchmarks as a result.

    其次,我們加快了內部人工智慧的部署,這確實使我們能夠加快產品創新上市的速度。我們擴大了生產力提升計畫的規模,因此,我們的基準測試的時間和品質都在不斷提高。

  • I'd say, ultimately, the best barometer for the long-term potential of our business is what we hear from our customers. And they are consistently telling us that they want more from us, more data, like more AI functionality, more features and integrations.

    我認為,歸根結底,衡量我們業務長期潛力的最佳指標是我們從客戶那裡聽到的回饋。他們不斷告訴我們,他們想要從我們這裡獲得更多,更多數據,例如更多的人工智慧功能、更多特性和整合。

  • And we're going to continue to solve for that. We'll continue to deliver strong growth and profitability. We saw that in 2025, and we've guided to that in 2026. Thanks for the question.

    我們將繼續解決這個問題。我們將繼續保持強勁的成長和獲利能力。我們在 2025 年看到了這一點,我們已經預測 2026 年也將達到這一目標。謝謝你的提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Toni Kaplan, Morgan Stanley.

    東尼卡普蘭,摩根士丹利。

  • Toni Kaplan - Analyst

    Toni Kaplan - Analyst

  • I wanted to ask about Ratings. I know your guide is below the long-term framework despite there being some positive tailwinds from the factors you spoke about, the refi wall, M&A, having closed a lot of it in the second half of last -- or announced in the second half of last year that will close this year, AI infrastructure financing. I guess, why should this be a below normal year for Ratings?

    我想問一下評分方面的問題。我知道你的指南低於長期框架,儘管你提到的因素帶來了一些積極的利好,例如再融資壁壘、併購(去年下半年完成了很多併購交易,或者去年下半年宣布將在今年完成的併購交易)、人工智慧基礎設施融資。我想,為什麼今年的收視率會低於往年?

  • Martina Cheung - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Martina Cheung - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Hi, Toni. Thanks for the question. So with Ratings and the Billed Issuance guide of low to mid-single digits, let me talk to you a little bit about some of the underlying assumptions there. So in the first case, I would say that we obviously have the maturity wall.

    你好,托尼。謝謝你的提問。因此,鑑於評級和已發行債券的發行量指導值都在個位數低到中等水平,讓我來和大家談談其中的一些基本假設。所以,在第一種情況下,我認為我們顯然遇到了成熟度瓶頸。

  • An important assumption here for us starting the year is that we would see the majority of the '26 refinancing coming to market this year and not massive amounts of pull forward from 2027 and 2028. And some of that just has to do with the timing of when those issuances were done. They were done -- for instance, many of them were done at very low interest rates. And so that's one key assumption.

    今年年初,我們的一個重要假設是,2026 年的大部分再融資將在今年進入市場,而不是從 2027 年和 2028 年提前大量提取。其中一些原因與這些債券發行的時間有關。這些項目都完成了——例如,其中許多項目都是以非常低的利率完成的。所以,這是其中一個關鍵假設。

  • The second one would be modest M&A growth year-over-year. Yes, we certainly have seen all the announcements in the back half of 2025, the timing of those, the materialization of those is important, and I think we'll be able to gauge more of that as we go throughout the year.

    第二個因素是併購交易量較去年同期溫和成長。是的,我們當然已經看到了2025年下半年的所有公告,這些公告的發佈時間和最終落實情況都很重要,我認為隨著時間的推移,我們將能夠更好地評估這些情況。

  • And maybe a third point that I would make here is that we saw quite a bit of issuance in the back half of the year from the hyperscale players. We know that creates a very difficult compare in the back half of the year, this year. And on the hyperscale players, we've assumed continued growth, but modest growth.

    我在這裡想提出的第三點是,我們看到超大規模資料中心營運商在今年下半年發行了相當多的債券。我們知道,這將導致今年下半年業績與去年同期相比非常艱難。對於超大規模企業,我們假設它們將繼續成長,但成長幅度不會太大。

  • Now look, there are lots of big numbers being thrown around out there. A total of about $650 billion in announced CapEx from the hyperscale players. I would say the way to think about how we've looked at that is, first, we need to see how much of that actually materializes within the current year.

    現在你看,到處都在談論一些很大的數字。超大規模企業已宣布的總資本支出約為 6,500 億美元。我認為,看待這個問題的思考方式是,首先,我們需要看看今年有多少目標能夠真正實現。

  • And secondly, how much of that would be debt funded? And so we take one haircut on our assumption for how much we think will materialize and then another haircut on how we think -- how much we think would be debt funded.

    其次,其中有多少會透過舉債融資?因此,我們首先對我們認為將會實現的金額進行一次調整,然後對我們認為將透過債務融資的金額進行另一次調整。

  • Now with all of that, it's early in the year. You know we'll update you as we go throughout the year. If we saw, for example, higher levels of hyperscale issuance throughout the course of the year than we saw in 2025, we think that could possibly add a few percentage points to Billed Issuance.

    現在,儘管發生了這麼多事,但畢竟才年初。我們會全年持續向您報告最新進展。例如,如果我們看到今年超大規模債券發行量高於 2025 年的水平,我們認為這可能會使已計費債券發行量增加幾個百分點。

  • But it's too early to really make aggressive assumptions around this. And so we're guiding to prudent levels, and we'll keep you up-to-date throughout the course of the year. Thanks so much, Toni.

    但現在就此做出過於武斷的假設還為時過早。因此,我們將引導至謹慎的水平,並且我們將在一年中隨時向您通報最新情況。非常感謝,托尼。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Faiza Alwy, Deutsche Bank.

    Faiza Alwy,德意志銀行。

  • Faiza Alwy - Analyst

    Faiza Alwy - Analyst

  • So I wanted to follow up on George's question, just given the panic and confusion that the market is experiencing as it relates to AI. And I know you've talked previously about revenues driven by benchmarks and proprietary data. And I think you've said you're fairly agnostic around the channel that data consumption occurs in.

    鑑於目前市場對人工智慧的恐慌和混亂,我想就喬治的問題做個後續討論。我知道您之前也談過以基準和專有數據為驅動的收入。而且我認為你曾說過,你對數據消費發生的管道持相當中立的態度。

  • So I was hoping you could put a finer point on that and talk specifically about your workflow products and the mood there. And to the extent there is a shift in channel, so how do you overcome that? Is it potentially like higher pricing on the same data? Or just any more clarity you can provide on that, I think, would be helpful.

    所以我希望你能更詳細地談談這一點,具體說說你的工作流程產品以及那裡的氛圍。如果通路發生轉變,那麼如何克服這種轉變呢?這是否意味著同樣的數據價格會更高?如果您能就此提供更詳細的說明,我認為會很有幫助。

  • Martina Cheung - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Martina Cheung - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Hi, Faiza. Thanks so much for the question. So of course, as you pointed out, we did illustrate during Investor Day that the vast majority of our revenues come from our unique and differentiated benchmark data and insights as well as our critical workflows. Now I know that with everything that's happened in the last week or so that there is a lot of attention and a number of questions around workflows. And so let me talk about that for a little bit.

    是的。嗨,法伊扎。非常感謝你的提問。當然,正如您所指出的,我們在投資者日上確實表明,我們絕大部分收入來自我們獨特且差異化的基準數據和見解以及我們的關鍵工作流程。現在我知道,鑑於過去一周左右發生的一切,工作流程受到了廣泛關注,也引發了許多問題。那麼,讓我簡單談談這個問題。

  • But the workflow tools that S&P Global has developed are critical systems of record for our customers. So products like iLEVEL, ClearPar, Cap IQ Pro, Platts Connect and others, they're not simple apps that were developed rapidly. And in fact, they get smarter as we embed AI technology in them.

    但標普全球開發的這些工作流程工具是我們客戶的重要記錄系統。因此,像是 iLEVEL、ClearPar、Cap IQ Pro、Platts Connect 等產品,並不是快速開發的簡單應用程式。事實上,隨著我們把人工智慧技術嵌入到它們之中,它們會變得越來越聰明。

  • So we think of these as enterprise-grade solutions that involve sophisticated integration. So many of them, for example, provide connectivity across industry networks of clients, and they enable capital flows, trading, reporting, and other mission-critical functions.

    因此,我們認為這些是涉及複雜整合的企業級解決方案。例如,其中許多系統提供跨行業客戶網路的連接,並支援資本流動、交易、報告和其他關鍵任務功能。

  • Think about the regulated environment in which we operate, so we, and many of our customers and the workflow tools we provide, need to actually operate in very sophisticated ecosystems. And so our workflow tools embed functionality for compliance, risk management, data integration and segregation, and integrations with other tools that our customers use daily.

    想想我們所處的監管環境,因此我們、我們的許多客戶以及我們提供的工作流程工具實際上需要在非常複雜的生態系統中運作。因此,我們的工作流程工具嵌入了合規性、風險管理、資料整合和隔離以及與客戶日常使用的其他工具整合的功能。

  • And for our financial services clients, we need to, as a provider to them comply with and attest to our compliance with complex digital regulations like Dora, for example. So our solutions have been developed and refined over many years to enable these mission-critical workflows, and we deploy them globally at scale.

    對於我們的金融服務客戶,作為他們的服務提供者,我們需要遵守並證明我們遵守了複雜的數位法規,例如 Dora 法規。因此,我們的解決方案經過多年開發和完善,能夠支援這些關鍵任務工作流程,並且我們在全球範圍內大規模部署這些解決方案。

  • Another point I'd make here, really, is that our workflow tools have S&P Global data embedded in them to drive functionality. So the true value of many of our solutions like WSO can't be realized without S&P Global's world-class data sets like loan reference data.

    我在這裡還要補充一點,我們的工作流程工具中嵌入了標普全球數據,以驅動其功能。因此,如果沒有標普全球世界一流的資料集(例如貸款參考資料),我們許多解決方案(例如 WSO)的真正價值就無法實現。

  • And our customers are consistently telling us they don't want to have to expand their list of vendors to get access to leading-edge technology. They want us to embed that technology in our products, and we've been rapidly doing that now for several years.

    我們的客戶一直告訴我們,他們不希望為了獲得尖端技術而不得不擴大供應商名單。他們希望我們將這項技術融入我們的產品中,而我們過去幾年一直在快速地這樣做。

  • And the message is consistent to what we've been saying to you over the last year, our customers want fewer vendors and more strategic partnerships with comprehensive partners like ourselves. They see the expertise we have with Kensho and they recognize that we have very unique and massively scaled data that we bring to the table.

    這與我們過去一年來一直向你們傳達的訊息一致,我們的客戶希望減少供應商數量,並與像我們這樣提供全面服務的合作夥伴建立更多策略合作夥伴關係。他們看到了我們在 Kensho 方面的專業知識,也意識到我們擁有非常獨特且規模龐大的數據。

  • So we're confident that our unique position as the world's leading provider of benchmarks and our combination of AI expertise, our differentiated data and our enterprise-grade workflow tools enable us to continue advancing that essential intelligence for our customers around the world. Thanks for the question.

    因此,我們有信心憑藉我們作為世界領先的基準提供者的獨特地位,以及我們的人工智慧專業知識、差異化數據和企業級工作流程工具的結合,能夠繼續為世界各地的客戶提供至關重要的智慧。謝謝你的提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Surinder Thind, Jefferies.

    蘇林德‧辛德,傑富瑞。

  • Surinder Thind - Analyst

    Surinder Thind - Analyst

  • Martina, just following up on some of the earlier questions. At a high level, can you maybe talk about your assessment and experience with the AI technology in your attempts to deploy it internally versus maybe the hype that's coming out of Silicon Valley?

    瑪蒂娜,我只是想就之前的一些問題做個後續說明。從宏觀層面來說,您能否談談您在內部部署人工智慧技術時的評估和經驗,以及您與矽谷的炒作相比有何不同?

  • And maybe what does this mean structurally for S&P in the sense that when we look at some of the newer firms that are coming out, they're coming up with a much smaller employee footprint, these AI native companies versus maybe some of the prior generation.

    從結構上看,這對標普意味著什麼?當我們觀察一些新興公司時,會發現這些人工智慧原生公司與上一代公司相比,員工規模要小得多。

  • Martina Cheung - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Martina Cheung - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Hi, Surinder. Thanks for the question. And as you rightly said, we've been investing in this area for many years since we acquired Kensho in 2018. We've deployed about $1 billion against this, and that's really put us in a great position as we think about deploying these capabilities, both within our products and in our internal processes. And so I would say, early days, but we are seeing traction in the momentum that we see with our customers, for instance, on the product side of this.

    是的。你好,蘇林德。謝謝你的提問。正如您所說,自 2018 年收購 Kensho 以來,我們多年來一直在該領域進行投資。我們已為此投入了約 10 億美元,這使我們在考慮如何在產品和內部流程中部署這些能力時處於非常有利的地位。所以我覺得現在還處於早期階段,但我們已經看到了客戶對產品等方面的正面回饋。

  • So I'll give you some examples. We deployed the automated data ingestion tool on iLEVEL in 2025. And within the six months, we had nearly 20% of the iLEVEL customers opting for that add in, which is not part of the standard subscription.

    我舉幾個例子。我們在 iLEVEL 上部署了 2025 年的自動化資料收集工具。在短短六個月內,就有近 20% 的 iLEVEL 用戶選擇了這項附加服務,而這項服務並不包含在標準訂閱中。

  • We also have seen very good demand in our Energy clients for adding on the ability to pull energy research into Copilot and Copilot Studio that's seen quite a robust pipeline over the course of last year, and we'd expect more of that in 2026. And so earlier opportunities here that we've seen lots of good momentum.

    我們也看到,能源領域的客戶對將能源研究成果導入 Copilot 和 Copilot Studio 的功能有著非常好的需求,去年我們收到了相當多的申請,預計 2026 年會有更多這樣的申請。因此,我們之前在這裡看到了很多良好的發展勢頭。

  • And again, it comes back to what are our clients saying to us? We have one CCO client that was working with the CCO team recently and essentially said, look, we've seen some of the bigger tech firms. We're also looking at some of these niche providers that have AI native shells, if you like, without the data.

    歸根究底,還是要看我們的客戶告訴我們什麼?我們有一位首席客戶長 (CCO) 客戶最近與 CCO 團隊合作,他基本上是這麼說的:你看,我們已經考察過一些規模較大的科技公司。我們也在關註一些擁有 AI 原生外殼(或說沒有數據)的小眾供應商。

  • And frankly, we prefer to work with you guys. We want to see you guys put the functionality into your tools, and we want to use you guys as a single pipe to get our data through. And so as I said earlier, the best barometer really of our long-term success here is what our customers are telling us, and we're moving faster and doing more with our customers.

    坦白說,我們更願意和你們合作。我們希望看到你們將這些功能整合到你們的工具中,並且我們希望使用你們作為單一的資料傳輸管道。正如我之前所說,衡量我們長期成功的最佳指標是客戶的回饋,我們正在加快步伐,為客戶做更多的事情。

  • Maybe the other point that I would make, and then I do want to hand over to Eric on the productivity side of this and to your points around smaller teams, et cetera. We would certainly expect, over the next several years, that revenue growth will outstrip headcount growth. And in many ways, we're seeing places where we've reached peak headcount growth, and we'll see that continue to decline in certain areas over time where we've accelerated the application of these functions.

    我可能還要補充一點,然後我想把這個問題的討論交給 Eric,關於生產力方面以及你提到的關於小團隊等等。我們完全可以預期,在未來幾年內,營收成長將超過員工人數成長。在很多方面,我們看到一些地方的員工人數成長已經達到峰值,隨著時間的推移,在某些我們加快應用這些職能的領域,員工人數將繼續下降。

  • Maybe Eric, over to you.

    艾瑞克,該你了。

  • Eric Aboaf - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Eric Aboaf - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Martina. Surinder, let me add that on the internal usage of AI, we're really accelerating a number of use cases and not just I'd call proof of concept, but actually changing the way we do work, changing the way our processes are developed and simplifying. I think if you remember back to Investor Day, we talked about some of the deep pools of opportunity we named for the Enterprise Data Office, the software development process, the researcher activity that we have and then the analysts.

    謝謝你,瑪蒂娜。Surinder,我還要補充一點,關於人工智慧的內部應用,我們正在加速推進許多用例,不僅僅是概念驗證,而是真正地改變我們的工作方式,改變我們流程的開發方式,並使其簡化。我想,如果你還記得投資者日的話,我們當時談到了我們為企業數據辦公室、軟體開發流程、研究人員活動以及分析師們命名的一些深厚機會。

  • And we described those as pools of human resources that comprise about a third of our total 40,000-plus headcount. And each one of those has an industrious effort now underway to actually bring in and leverage a number of the new tools, some of them that we've developed internally, a number of which are available externally.

    我們將這些人員描述為人力資源庫,約占我們 4 萬多名員工總數的三分之一。目前,這些機構都在積極努力引進和利用一些新工具,其中一些是我們內部開發的,有些則是外部可用的。

  • You're all well familiar with some of the software development tools that are having a very significant productivity impact for the developers and in those environments. Researchers an area where we've already been able to simplify, streamline, and save $10 million-plus over the last year as we provide them the tools and the functionality and the capabilities that they need to provide more research faster and more efficiently than before.

    你們都非常熟悉一些軟體開發工具,這些工具對開發人員及其工作環境的生產力產生了非常顯著的影響。在過去一年裡,我們已經為研究人員提供了簡化、精簡流程並節省了超過 1000 萬美元的資金,因為我們為他們提供了所需的工具、功能和能力,使他們能夠比以前更快、更有效率地開展更多研究。

  • And then the effort that's probably the furthest ahead is the Enterprise Data Office where, over time, over the next two years, we see about a 20% reduction in that cost base in that area. It's nearly a $0.5 billion expense base out of $7.5 billion.

    而進展最快的領域可能是企業資料辦公室,隨著時間的推移,在未來兩年內,我們預計該領域的成本基礎將減少約 20%。在75億美元的總支出中,這筆費用接近5億美元。

  • And it's the change that we see coming now because we have these AI tools. We know how to implement them. We know how to simplify what we have. We know how to lighten the set of internal processes streamlined.

    而我們現在看到的這種變化,正是因為我們擁有了這些人工智慧工具。我們知道如何實施它們。我們知道如何簡化我們現有的事物。我們知道如何簡化內部流程。

  • And I think over time, it's going to transform how we operate this company and create the productivity and our ability to reinvest in the top line as we've been doing over the last few years, but also deliver margin year after year after year in a way that will drive both margin expansion, top line growth, and EPS growth for our shareholders.

    我認為隨著時間的推移,這將改變我們經營這家公司的方式,提高生產力,使我們能夠像過去幾年一樣將利潤再投資於營收,同時還能逐年實現利潤增長,從而推動利潤率擴張、營收成長和每股收益成長,最終為我們的股東帶來收益。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Manav Patnaik, Barclays.

    馬納夫·帕特奈克,巴克萊銀行。

  • Manav Patnaik - Analyst

    Manav Patnaik - Analyst

  • Martina, you talked about how you thought AI was net tailwind for your business. And I was hoping you could just elaborate on that more on the top line basis. So do you think all these enhancements that you're talking about will help you accelerate revenue growth? And also, how do you think that changes your pricing strategy going forward?

    瑪蒂娜,你之前說過你認為人工智慧對你的業務來說是順風順水。我希望您能就此做更詳細的闡述。所以你認為你提到的這些改善措施能夠幫助你加速營收成長嗎?另外,您認為這會如何改變您未來的定價策略?

  • Martina Cheung - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Martina Cheung - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Hi, Manav. Thanks for the question. We do think this is a great opportunity, and we're excited by the announcements. A number of these, we've been anticipating because we've been engaging very closely with the various players in the markets.

    是的。你好,馬納夫。謝謝你的提問。我們認為這是一個絕佳的機會,我們對這些公告感到非常興奮。其中許多情況我們早已預料到,因為我們一直與市場上的各種參與者保持著非常密切的聯繫。

  • Maybe let me start with how we see this delivering additional value for our customers as we accelerate not just the integration of AI into our own tools, but also leaning into partnerships with a number of these players. First, I'd say that our clients are getting additional value by being able to use the data, our data in more ways. And the more ways to use it, the more value it creates and the better opportunity for value-based conversation at renewal when we talk to those customers.

    或許我可以先談談,隨著我們不僅加速將人工智慧整合到我們自己的工具中,而且還與許多此類參與者建立合作夥伴關係,我們認為這將如何為我們的客戶帶來額外的價值。首先,我認為我們的客戶能夠以更多方式使用數據(我們的數據),從而獲得額外的價值。使用方式越多,它創造的價值就越大,我們在與客戶續約時進行基於價值的對話的機會就越大。

  • We've also seen really nice uptick in demand for add-ons. And that's helped us obviously with net new revenue. Examples of that that we mentioned were the automated data ingestion, as well as in iLEVEL, as well as Microsoft Copilot add-on for our Energy customers.

    我們也看到對附加元件的需求出現了非常可觀的成長。這顯然有助於我們實現淨新增收入。我們提到的例子包括自動化資料攝取,以及 iLEVEL 和麵向我們能源客戶的 Microsoft Copilot 外掛程式。

  • And then I would say that we also have seen our clients just this really, really steep increase in interest in new data. And so this is quite interesting. And we're seeing a lot of that in the conversations that the CCO and the Kensho Labs teams are having with our CCO clients.

    然後我想說,我們也看到我們的客戶對新數據的興趣出現了非常非常大的成長。所以這很有意思。我們在行銷長 (CCO) 和 Kensho Labs 團隊與我們的 CCO 客戶進行的對話中也看到了許多這樣的例子。

  • So we'd expect to see maybe new data set sales opportunities there as we're having those conversations as well. And ultimately, the way that we're tracking this, and Eric and team are really doing quite a bit around this to make sure that we can see that adoption and track it.

    因此,隨著我們進行這些對話,我們預計可能會看到新的數據集銷售機會。最終,我們透過這種方式追蹤這一趨勢,Eric 和他的團隊也確實在這方面做了很多工作,以確保我們能夠看到並追蹤這種採用情況。

  • We're looking at retention. We're looking at renewal -- net renewal rates which would be inclusive of price increases. We're looking at add-ons, net new revenues, new product sales. And importantly, this is also helping with competitive wins. So we think a good opportunity there overall.

    我們正在關注用戶留存率。我們正在研究續約——淨續約價格,其中包含了價格上漲。我們正在關注附加功能、新增淨收入和新產品銷售額。更重要的是,這也有助於贏得比賽。所以我們認為整體來說這是一個很好的機會。

  • We wouldn't change the pricing strategy around our enterprise opportunities. But maybe the way to think about it, Manav, would be that we see both opportunities around the renewal discussions as well as the opportunity to sell net new, whether it's add-ons or net new data sets.

    我們不會改變針對企業客戶的定價策略。但馬納夫,或許我們可以這樣想:我們既看到了續約談判帶來的機會,也看到了銷售全新產品的機會,無論是附加產品還是全新的數據集。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Scott Wurtzel, Wolfe Research.

    Scott Wurtzel,Wolfe Research。

  • Scott Wurtzel - Analyst

    Scott Wurtzel - Analyst

  • Eric, just wondering if you can elaborate more on the pull forward of investments that you brought into the Market Intelligence business into 4Q? And I know you guys aren't guiding to segment level margins anymore, but any qualitative color you can give us on the expected growth in expenses within MI for 2026 relative 2025?

    Eric,我想請你詳細說明一下你第四季引進市場情報業務的投資提前?我知道你們現在不再提供細分市場利潤率的指導,但是能否就2026年MI部門相對於2025年的預期支出增長情況,提供一些定性資訊?

  • Eric Aboaf - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Eric Aboaf - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Scott, it's Eric. Thanks for the question. On some of the fourth-quarter expenses in MI, remember, there were two factors. There was the early integration of With Intelligence, so that came on and then -- which we're very excited about, followed by some pull forward on investments. Those are really in the technology, I'll call it, feature functionality area of several product lines, and it's the kind of reinvestment that we're making as we deliver productivity to also drive top-line growth.

    史考特,我是埃里克。謝謝你的提問。關於密西根州第四季度的一些支出,請記住,有兩個因素。早期整合了 With Intelligence,這讓我們非常興奮,然後提前進行了一些投資。這些其實屬於技術範疇,我稱之為幾個產品線的功能特性領域,這是我們在提高生產力的同時,推動營收成長的一種再投資方式。

  • Some of them are actually AI investments and the infrastructure that helps support that where we're finding that we've already seen a quick adoption by clients. What we're trying to do is invest behind that very quickly to expand that AI feature functionality in particular and some of the other features that will drive future growth.

    其中一些實際上是人工智慧投資以及支援人工智慧的基礎設施,我們發現客戶已經迅速採用了這些基礎設施。我們正在努力做的,是迅速加大投資,以擴展人工智慧功能,特別是其他一些將推動未來成長的功能。

  • In terms of margin expansion, we're quite comfortable with the guide that we've provided in aggregate, the 50 to 75 basis points across the various divisions. I think as we get a little further during the year, we'll see how each of them perform, and we're being prudent in our guidance.

    就利潤率擴張而言,我們對我們提供的整體指導目標相當滿意,即各部門的利潤率提高 50 至 75 個基點。我認為隨著時間推移,我們會觀察他們各自的表現,我們也會在指導方面保持謹慎。

  • Some of the -- in MI is the volumetric revenues, which we've seen bounce up around from time to time. So this isn't anything particularly new, but if you go back over the last 8 to 12 quarters, you'll see some of that. And so we're just being a little bit careful.

    MI 中的一些因素是銷售收入,我們看到銷售收入時不時會上下波動。所以這並不是什麼特別新鮮的事,但如果你回顧過去 8 到 12 個季度,你會發現一些類似的情況。所以我們只是稍微謹慎一點。

  • In terms of margin expansion, we had said at Investor Day that MI has, I think, we said clearly, the largest surface area for margin expansion. We think that over time, it will be at the upper end of the 50- to 75-basis-point margin guide. I think for this year, we think it's solidly in the middle of our guide. And we're here to meet that and to deliver on that and to do even better.

    就利潤率擴張而言,我們在投資者日上說過,我認為,我們明確地說過,MI 擁有最大的利潤率擴張空間。我們認為,隨著時間的推移,它將達到 50 至 75 個基點利潤率指導範圍的上限。我認為就今年而言,我們認為它在我們指南中處於中等水平。我們來到這裡就是為了實現這個目標,並且做得更好。

  • And I think if some of the volumetric revenue growth comes in more like it did in '25, then we're prudently guiding for in '26, right? So if we see that same total year revenue growth as we'd like it to see, it will come in at the high end of the range. But it's a little early to make that prediction given that the volumetric growth is driven by a number of external factors. And so we start MI in the middle of the range, and we're looking to take it up during the year as we deliver.

    我認為,如果銷售收入成長能像 2025 年那樣強勁,那麼我們對 2026 年的業績做出謹慎的預測也是合理的,對吧?因此,如果我們看到全年總收入成長達到我們預期的水平,那麼它將處於預期範圍的高端。但考慮到銷售成長是由許多外部因素驅動的,現在做出這樣的預測還為時過早。因此,我們從中間價位開始推出 MI,並希望在年內隨著交貨情況的增加而提高價格。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jeff Silber, BMO Capital Markets.

    Jeff Silber,BMO資本市場。

  • Jeffrey Silber - Analyst

    Jeffrey Silber - Analyst

  • Eric, I wanted to continue the margin guidance. Again, I know you're not getting specific guidance by the different segments. But any qualitative color, if you can talk about the other segments like you just gave us for MI, we'd really appreciate it.

    艾瑞克,我想繼續提供利潤率指引。我知道你沒有從各部門獲得具體的指導。但是,如果您能像剛才談到 MI 那樣談談其他部分,並給出一些定性的意見,我們將不勝感激。

  • Eric Aboaf - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Eric Aboaf - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure. Jeff. Let me -- maybe we'll just take through MI, we covered at a high level, and I think you've got a good sense there.

    當然。傑夫。讓我——或許我們只需回顧一下密西根州的情況,我們已經大致了解過了,我認為你對此已經有所了解。

  • If we go to Ratings, one of our market-sensitive businesses, it's clear that it will depend upon the issuance environment, the rated issuance expansion during this year. And that's all driven by the M&A activity, the potential hyperscale investment-grade issuances, structured finance, and so forth. So I think that one, we've historically been careful at the beginning of the year and are doing so again.

    如果我們談到評級業務,這是我們對市場較敏感的業務之一,很明顯,它將取決於發行環境,以及今年評級債券的發行擴張情況。而這一切都是由併購活動、潛在的超大規模投資等級債券發行、結構性融資等等所驅動的。所以我認為,我們歷來在年初都比較謹慎,今年也依然如此。

  • I think similarly in Indices, there, we've delivered really nice margin expansion performance. We expect to continue to do that. Here, we're being a little careful as well with the guidance on equity market appreciation. There's a good tailwind because of the averages and where they've come out relative to the average of '25 and where we are today. But if markets continue to trend upwards, there'll be opportunity towards the upper end of the range, but it's a little early to predict that.

    我認為在指數方面也有類似的表現,我們在那裡實現了非常不錯的利潤率擴張表現。我們預計會繼續這樣做。在這裡,我們對股票市場升值的指導也比較謹慎。由於平均值以及它們相對於 2025 年平均值和我們今天所處位置的走勢,現在存在著良好的順風。但如果市場持續呈上升趨勢,那麼在價格區間的高端將會出現機會,但現在預測這一點還為時過早。

  • Energy, I think, will also deliver well. There, we've got some headwinds as we described, some of the sanctions, the turnaround in Upstream is underway. And I think what we'll see is margins and revenue accelerate from the first half to the second half of the year. And there, we're also confident we can meet the middle of the range.

    我認為能源方面也會有不錯的表現。正如我們之前所述,我們遇到了一些不利因素,例如一些制裁,但上游業務的轉型正在進行中。我認為我們會看到利潤率和收入從上半年到下半年加速成長。而且,我們也有信心滿足中價位的需求。

  • But in each one of these, it takes a series of actions, a number of which we control and some of which we don't control to -- for us to get to the upper end, which is where we'd always like to deliver. I mean that's our intentionality. That's where management and the executive team is focused on.

    但要達到我們一直想要達到的最高境界,需要採取一系列行動,其中一些行動我們可以控制,而另一些行動我們則無法控制。我的意思是,這是我們的初衷。那是管理階層和執行團隊關注的重點。

  • What we are committing to is that every division will expand margin, every divisional extent margin in this range. And there are certainly opportunities, I think, across every division, starting with the market-sensitive divisions, but also in MI and in Energy to deliver even more than the middle of the range depending on execution, depending on the market environment.

    我們承諾的是,每個部門的利潤率都將在這個範圍內擴大。我認為,每個部門肯定都有機會,首先是市場敏感型部門,其次是MI和能源部門,根據執行情況和市場環境,甚至可以實現高於中等水平的業績。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Andrew Steinerman, JPMorgan.

    Andrew Steinerman,摩根大通。

  • Alexander Hess - Analyst

    Alexander Hess - Analyst

  • This is Alex Hess on for Andrew Steinerman. I just wanted to get a few points of clarification, if you don't mind. Could you elaborate as to what organic ACV growth was in the fourth quarter in MI? I know that's been a point that you guys have been highlighting, certainly, when it's been running ahead of pace.

    這裡是 Alex Hess,替 Andrew Steinerman 為您報道。如果您不介意的話,我想請您澄清幾點。能否詳細說明一下密西根州第四季的有機ACV成長?我知道你們一直在強調這一點,尤其是在它超前預期進度的時候。

  • And then maybe on the balance sheet, just walking through sources and uses of capital as you enter '26, any call-outs there, especially at the debt buildup in the year? So I know it's two parter.

    然後,在資產負債表上,回顧一下2026年時的資金來源和用途,有沒有什麼需要特別指出的地方,尤其是當年的債務累積?所以我知道這是個兩個部分的故事。

  • Eric Aboaf - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Eric Aboaf - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Let me take those in sequence. ACV growth continues to come in very nicely in MI. It was solidly in the 6.5% to 7% range this quarter, which gives us two quarters in a row of 6.5% to 7%. And if I remind you, the first half of the year was sitting at 6% to 6.5%.

    讓我按順序來說。密西根州的蘋果醋銷售持續成長,勢頭良好。本季該指標穩定在 6.5% 至 7% 的範圍內,這是連續第二季達到 6.5% 至 7%。如果我沒記錯的話,今年上半年的經濟成長率在 6% 到 6.5% 之間。

  • So I think we're starting to see the acceleration or maybe I'll say, continuing to see the acceleration that we had seen from the first half into the third quarter. We're now seeing it first half to second half. And that's what gives us confidence in the step off into next year.

    所以我覺得我們開始看到加速的勢頭,或者應該說,繼續看到從上半場到第三節的加速勢頭。我們現在看到的是上半場到下半場的這種情況。正是這一點讓我們對邁向明年充滿信心。

  • It's also related to where the subscription growth is coming in really nicely. And we think that subscription growth will be at the top half of our revenue guide. We think ACV will be at the top half of our organic constant currency revenue guide as well and will help propel revenue to levels that we'd like to see this coming year.

    這也與訂閱用戶成長的趨勢密切相關。我們認為訂閱收入成長將位列我們營收預期的前半部分。我們認為 ACV 也將位列我們有機固定匯率收入預期的前半部分,並將有助於推動收入達到我們希望在來年看到的水平。

  • In terms of balance sheet and capital management, I think maybe a couple of points that I'd highlight. A lot of the balance sheet management continues. As we've previously discussed, we did go ahead with a buyback and expanded buyback in the fourth quarter. We funded some of that with some debt in commercial paper. So you see that come through in the balance sheet, and that resulted in $5 billion of buybacks for the year for 2025.

    就資產負債表和資本管理而言,我想重點介紹以下幾點。許多資產負債表管理工作仍在繼續。正如我們之前討論過的,我們在第四季度確實進行了股票回購並擴大了股票回購規模。我們用商業票據債務為其中一部分提供了資金。所以你可以從資產負債表中看到這一點,結果導致 2025 年的股票回購額達到 50 億美元。

  • As you recall, our buybacks typically are lighter in the first quarter, and then build during the course of the year. Just given the market environment, the strength of our balance sheet, but also the stock price levels that we're seeing, we're likely to do a higher buyback this first quarter in 2026. I think last year was in the $650 million range. This year, we're targeting about $1 billion of buyback and see that as a way to expand EPS in these volatile markets.

    如您所知,我們的股票回購通常在第一季規模較小,然後隨著時間的推移逐漸增加。鑑於目前的市場環境、我們強勁的資產負債表以及我們所看到的股價水平,我們可能會在 2026 年第一季進行更大規模的股票回購。我認為去年的收入在 6.5 億美元左右。今年,我們的目標是回購約 10 億美元的股票,並將此視為在當前動盪的市場中擴大每股收益的一種方式。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Craig Huber, Huber Research Partners.

    Craig Huber,Huber Research Partners。

  • Craig Huber - Equity Analyst

    Craig Huber - Equity Analyst

  • Martina, you gave several examples of initiatives on revenue front that AI is helping your revenues. But can you just simply if you would, please give me your four to five revenue AI contribution you think is going to help you the most for revenues this year? Your products, your add-ons, but what's your four to five, ones you're most excited about?

    瑪蒂娜,你舉了幾個例子說明人工智慧在營收方面如何幫助你們提高營收。如果您方便的話,能否請您簡單介紹一下您認為今年最能幫助公司提升營收的四到五項人工智慧貢獻?你的產品、你的附加組件,但你最興奮的四到五件產品是什麼?

  • And then as you roll it all up, your AI enhancements to your products, how much do you think that's actually going to help your revenue growth this year, your midpoint growth, 7.5% of revenue growth? Is it going to help by roughly 1 percentage point. Do you have a sense on that, please?

    然後,當你把所有這些因素綜合起來考慮,包括你產品的 AI 增強功能,你認為這實際上會對你今年的收入成長有多大幫助?你的中期成長率是多少? 7.5% 的收入成長?這樣大概可以提高1個百分點吧?您對此有何看法?

  • Martina Cheung - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Martina Cheung - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Hi, Craig. Thanks for the question. Well, look, we're not providing guidance around the contribution of AI or calling that out specifically. Let me maybe take a step back and characterize some of the groupings of how we benefit from AI as part of our products.

    你好,克雷格。謝謝你的提問。你看,我們並沒有就人工智慧的貢獻提供指導,也沒有特別提及這一點。讓我退後一步,概括一下我們在產品中如何從人工智慧中受益。

  • And so as you know, we have been working really closely with our customers on this and they're really pointing the way in many cases around the types of functionality they want to see. And so that demand is really coming from the customers themselves. And what we're doing essentially is making our products smarter on their behalf and at their request.

    如您所知,我們一直在與客戶密切合作,在許多情況下,他們確實指明了他們想要看到的功能類型。因此,這種需求其實來自於顧客本身。我們所做的,本質上是應客戶要求,讓他們的產品變得更聰明。

  • And so some of the examples I called out earlier, maybe just again, put them in buckets. So one would be how we're actually bringing really advanced capabilities into our products. We showed you document intelligence, for example, at the Investor Day and that has seen a really good uptick and gotten very positive reception from our customers.

    因此,我之前提到的一些例子,或許可以再次把它們歸類。其中一個問題是,我們如何將真正先進的功能融入我們的產品中。例如,我們在投資者日上向您展示了文檔智能,該功能獲得了非常好的增長,並受到了客戶的非常積極的反饋。

  • A second category would be where we launched an add-on, which is charged for separately and I mentioned automated data ingestion for iLEVEL, there are a number of others there across the divisions and within MI as well.

    第二類是我們推出的附加元件,這些元件是單獨收費的。我之前提到過 iLEVEL 的自動資料擷取功能,其他部門和 MI 內部也有許多類似的元件。

  • The third would be just the overall conversation, oftentimes with the CCO clients and Kensho is resulting in increased demand for new data as a result of clients being able to use these technologies to do lots more interesting things with data. And so we may expect to see new product sales, new data sales as part of this as well.

    第三點是整體對話,通常是與首席客戶長 (CCO) 和 Kensho 的對話,這導致對新數據的需求增加,因為客戶能夠使用這些技術來處理數據,從而做更多有趣的事情。因此,我們或許可以預期,新產品銷售和新數據銷售也將隨之而來。

  • And remember, we're doing all of this with our philosophy of flexible delivery. So we will, as we have done for many, many years, lean into our distribution partners, including the model developers and hyperscale partners to create as much value for our customers as possible.

    請記住,我們做這一切都是秉持著靈活交付的理念。因此,我們將像過去很多年一樣,依靠我們的分銷合作夥伴,包括模型開發商和超大規模合作夥伴,為我們的客戶創造盡可能多的價值。

  • And then what's the results or the contribution? It's in a number of areas. It can be in revenues. It can be in retention. It can be in new data sales or new add-on sales. It can be in competitive wins. And we're seeing quite a bit of this across the businesses, whether it's an MI or in Energy, for example, we're seeing AI-enabled capabilities as we talked about last year in Index as well.

    那麼結果或貢獻是什麼呢?它分佈在多個地區。這可能體現在收入方面。可能是保留。可以是新增資料銷售,也可以是新增附加產品銷售。它可以體現在競爭性的勝利中。我們在各個行業都看到了這種情況,無論是管理資訊系統還是能源產業,例如,我們都看到了人工智慧賦能的能力,正如我們去年在 Index 報告中所討論的那樣。

  • And so this this is quite exciting for us. We continue to lean in here. And we're seeing the momentum and some of the early traction. And we look forward to sharing more about that as we go throughout the course of the year. Thanks, Craig.

    所以這對我們來說非常令人興奮。我們繼續深入研究這個問題。我們已經看到了這種勢頭和一些初步成效。我們期待在今年餘下的時間與大家分享更多相關資訊。謝謝你,克雷格。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Shlomo Rosenbaum, Stifel.

    Shlomo Rosenbaum,Stifel。

  • Shlomo Rosenbaum - Analyst

    Shlomo Rosenbaum - Analyst

  • I want to jump back to the volume base sales that were later in the quarter. Can you just go over your view on that in terms of those sales being market-driven or why else they would have been lower? I just wanted to ask, I mean, straight out, is any of the wallet share going to clients investing in AI and other areas that just might not be with S&P?

    我想回到本季後期的銷量基數。您能否就此談談您的看法,看看這些銷售額是否是由市場驅動的,否則為什麼銷售額會更低?我只是想直接問一下,客戶的錢包份額是否有任何一部分流向了投資人工智慧和其他可能不在標普500指數範圍內的領域?

  • And then also just in terms of like the margin expansion, even if you account for some of the pull forward of the investments, it sounds like the margin growth year-over-year would have been 80 basis points. We're just seeing a better trajectory in the last few quarters. And maybe you can comment on that as well. I know it's two parter, but please indulge me.

    而且,即使考慮到部分投資提前釋放的影響,就利潤率擴張而言,年比利潤率成長似乎也達到了 80 個基點。我們看到近幾季的發展勢頭有所改善。或許您也可以就此發表一些看法。我知道這是個兩部分的故事,但請容我贅述。

  • Eric Aboaf - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Eric Aboaf - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Shlomo, it's Eric. Let me start with the margin impact. There -- this -- and maybe quantify it in a couple of ways. As we described, With Intelligence comes on in the fourth quarter. And that obviously starts with a lower margin, just given where it is in its growth trajectory, but one with significant margin expansion plans and forecast.

    Shlomo,我是 Eric。首先,我想談談利潤率的影響。就是這個——或許可以用幾種方式來量化它。正如我們之前所說,《With Intelligence》將在第四季播出。顯然,鑑於其目前的發展階段,利潤率會較低,但該公司製定了利潤率大幅提升的計劃和預測。

  • There's the pull forward on some of the investment spend as well, which we're pleased to have done. And that's really offset in a way in other divisions where we saw higher-than-expected growth, in particular, in Indices. And so purposely, planned on some investments in MI where it made sense and effectively funded by another area. And together, those worth about 80 basis points for the quarter.

    此外,我們也提前撥付了一些投資款項,對此我們感到非常高興。而其他部門的成長高於預期,這在一定程度上抵消了上述影響,尤其是指數部門。因此,我們特意計劃在密西根州進行一些投資,因為在這些投資是合理的,而且資金也來自其他領域。加起來,這相當於本季約 80 個基點。

  • And then there's another 50 basis points or so that just comes from that lower variable revenues. If you factor that in, that between those three areas, I think margins for MI would have been in the 33.5% level, which is pretty close to the full year 34% margin. So we're consciously navigating and managing, I think, actively, and that's some of what you saw this quarter.

    此外,還有大約 50 個基點來自較低的可變收入。如果把這三個方面考慮進去,我認為 MI 的利潤率應該在 33.5% 左右,這與全年 34% 的利潤率非常接近。所以,我認為,我們正在有意識地積極應對和管理,而這正是你們在本季看到的一些成果。

  • In terms of the variable revenue, this is really driven by external factors. It's -- there are no cancellations. There are no questions around pricing. It's all been the variability in some of those external market factors.

    就可變收入而言,這實際上是受外部因素驅動。沒有取消。價格方面沒有任何問題。這一切都是某些外部市場因素波動所造成的。

  • And so for example, we talked about the bank loan syndications and the loan markets being slower in transactional activity. That just comes back to us directly in ClearPar as a set of lower revenues in that particular quarter. And we'll be exposed to that volatility.

    例如,我們討論了銀行貸款銀團和貸款市場交易活動放緩的問題。這直接導致 ClearPar 該季度的營收下降。我們將面臨這種市場波動的影響。

  • Conveniently, in Market Intelligence, subscription revenues is 85% of total revenues. But we'll have a little variability around that. And that's, I think, just part of the business model. Clients want to have a pricing schedule that's tied to how they make money, which is partly on the amount of activity. And so we have a system that supports that.

    巧合的是,在市場情報領域,訂閱收入佔總收入的 85%。但我們會對此稍作調整。我認為,這只是商業模式的一部分。客戶希望定價方案與他們的收入方式掛鉤,而收入方式部分取決於業務量。因此,我們有一個能夠支持這一點的系統。

  • But we're pleased with the overall performance and just calling out what will some of the volatility that we'll see from time to time. I think we saw some real positives in some quarters this year. You'll see some slower growth, but it was still in the -- it was still positive. And so it's just a matter of seeing that it evolves over time.

    但我們對整體表現感到滿意,只是想指出我們會不時看到一些波動。我認為今年我們在某些​​方面看到了一些真正的正面因素。你會看到成長速度有所放緩,但仍然保持正成長。所以,關鍵在於觀察它如何隨著時間推移而演變。

  • Martina Cheung - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Martina Cheung - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And Shlomo, maybe I could add a couple of additional examples here. So Eric mentioned earlier investments that will help with revenue growth. Maybe two examples of that to make this tangible.

    Shlomo,或許我還可以再補充幾個例子。埃里克之前提到過一些投資將有助於收入成長。或許可以舉兩個例子來使之更具體。

  • One is that we invested more in cloud to accelerate the bringing together of our Data Fabric and the EDO and that's really creating the opportunity to do more with our content, connecting it together, produce more products, et cetera. And then the second area was we pulled forward some expense around sales enablement tools within Market Intelligence into Q4 as well. So just a couple of examples there. Thanks for the question.

    一方面,我們增加了對雲端技術的投資,以加速資料架構和 EDO 的整合,這確實為我們提供了更多利用內容、將內容連接起來、生產更多產品等的機會。其次,我們也把市場情報部門銷售賦能工具的部分支出提前到了第四季。以上僅舉幾個例子。謝謝你的提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • David Motemaden, Evercore.

    David Motemaden,Evercore。

  • David Motemaden - Analyst

    David Motemaden - Analyst

  • Just had a question on sales cycles within MI. Martina, have you seen any changes in MI sales cycles? And just given the announcements of some of the GenAI enhancements at the LLMs over the last six months or so. Has that impacted sales cycles at all? Are you seeing any changes to the pipeline? I'd be interested in what you are seeing.

    我剛剛對MI的銷售週期有一個疑問。Martina,你觀察到MI的銷售週期有任何變化嗎?鑑於過去六個月左右的時間裡,在LLM會議上宣布了一些GenAI增強功能。這是否對銷售週期產生了影響?您是否發現管道有任何變化?我對你看到的景像很感興趣。

  • Martina Cheung - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Martina Cheung - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Hi, David. Thanks so much for the question. I mean I think the only time generally that we might see a sales cycle being longer, and this wouldn't be specific necessarily to AI or LLMs, but generally speaking, the only time you might say that happen is if you have a very large deal that might have multiple products in there.

    你好,大衛。非常感謝你的提問。我的意思是,我認為通常情況下,我們可能會看到銷售週期變長的唯一情況,這並不一定特別指人工智慧或LLM,但一般來說,只有當你遇到一筆非常大的交易,其中可能包含多個產品時,你才會認為這種情況會發生。

  • And so maybe some of the CCO deals where we're dealing with large enterprise opportunities could be some examples of that. But I wouldn't necessarily say that, that has differed from what we've seen in the past.

    因此,我們正在處理的大型企業機會中的一些 CCO 交易或許可以作為這方面的例子。但我並不認為這與我們過去看到的情況有所不同。

  • What I will say is that the volume of meetings has increased dramatically with our clients, in particular with the CCO accounts, not just because we are bringing the whole enterprise together for a discussion with them, but also because they're looking at what more they can do with us. And so that's an area where, of course, we see opportunity as well. Thanks for the question.

    我想說的是,我們與客戶的會議數量大幅增加,尤其是與首席客戶官 (CCO) 客戶的會議數量,這不僅是因為我們將整個企業聚集在一起與他們進行討論,還因為他們正在考慮可以與我們開展哪些更多合作。所以,當然,我們也看到了這方面的機會。謝謝你的提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Owen Lau, Clear Street.

    歐文·勞,克利爾街。

  • Owen Lau - Analyst

    Owen Lau - Analyst

  • Could you please add more color on the priorities of your private market solutions in 2026? What are some of the initiatives that can drive or even accelerate the growth in this area this year?

    能否請您詳細說明2026年私人市場解決方案的優先事項?今年有哪些舉措可以推動甚至加速該領域的成長?

  • Martina Cheung - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Martina Cheung - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Hi, Owen. It's Martina. Thanks so much for the question. Well we're very excited about our private markets opportunities in 2026. Maybe just to point to the different divisions around this.

    你好,歐文。是瑪蒂娜。非常感謝你的提問。我們對2026年的私募市場機會感到非常興奮。或許只是想指出圍繞這個問題存在的不同分歧。

  • In Ratings, we've seen really strong performance around Private Market Ratings certainly in 2025. And the work that we've done, really, there to make sure that the issuers in the market understand our methodologies and that we have very established clear relationships in the broader business. That's all helpful for us, and we don't see a reduction in appetite for private market from investors.

    在評級方面,我們看到私募市場評級在 2025 年的表現非常強勁。我們所做的工作,實際上是為了確保市場上的發行人了解我們的方法,並且我們在更廣泛的業務領域建立了非常清晰的關係。這對我們來說都很有幫助,而且我們沒有看到投資者對私募市場的興趣下降。

  • And so we'd expect that to continue to progress nicely in 2026. Look, it's possible that some of these hyperscale issuance could go through rated in our private markets teams. If that's the case, we might see a little bit of that potential for increased come through that channel, but, generally, very well positioned there.

    因此,我們預計這一趨勢在 2026 年將繼續穩步發展。你看,這些超大規模的債券發行有可能透過我們私募市場團隊的評等。如果情況真是如此,我們可能會看到一些成長潛力透過該管道實現,但總的來說,我們在該管道的處境非常有利。

  • In Index, we've seen a number of launches around private markets in 2025, and we are getting a lot of interest speaking with our clients about new Index opportunities. And the team is also working with Market Intelligence team to see how they can accelerate innovation using the data from both With Intelligence and from the Cambridge Mercer agreement that we've struck.

    在指數基金領域,我們看到 2025 年圍繞私募市場推出了一系列項目,並且我們與客戶討論新的指數基金機會時,也獲得了很多關注。團隊也正在與市場情報團隊合作,探討如何利用來自 With Intelligence 和我們與劍橋 Mercer 達成的協議中的數據來加速創新。

  • And then in MI, look, we're so excited about the closure of the With Intelligence deal early. And just the spectacular capabilities of the EDO team, enabling us to link that data through Kensho Link and get it out to market faster. We've already seen really early momentum around cross-sells that we talked about in the prepared remarks. And that With Intelligence team is phenomenal. We're super excited to have them on board.

    然後,在密西根州,你看,我們對提前完成與 With Intelligence 的交易感到非常興奮。正是 EDO 團隊的卓越能力,使我們能夠透過 Kensho Link 連接這些數據,並更快地將其推向市場。我們在準備好的演講稿中提到的交叉銷售方面,已經看到了非常早期的發展勢頭。而With Intelligence團隊非常出色。我們非常高興他們能加入我們。

  • And I would say maybe just a last quick point, we launched the beta for Cambridge Mercer in Q4, as we had discussed, got very positive feedback. The taxonomy for private markets that we discussed as well around standardizing and reporting is also getting very, very good feedback from the market. And we're continuing to work with customers on that, and you can expect us to keep you updated on that as we go throughout the year.

    最後我想補充一點,正如我們之前討論過的,我們在第四季度推出了 Cambridge Mercer 的測試版,並收到了非常正面的回饋。我們之前討論過的關於私人市場分類、標準化和報告方面的分類方法也得到了市場的非常非常好的回饋。我們正在繼續與客戶就此進行合作,您可以期待我們今年全年持續向您通報最新進展。

  • So I'd say, Owen, we're excited. There's always good opportunities here, and we'll keep you updated as we go throughout the year. Thanks for the question.

    所以我想說,歐文,我們很興奮。這裡總是有很多好機會,我們會全年持續為您更新最新情況。謝謝你的提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jason Haas, Wells Fargo.

    傑森‧哈斯,富國銀行。

  • Jason Haas - Analyst

    Jason Haas - Analyst

  • I'm curious if you could talk about your outlook for bank loan issuance in 2026. I'm curious why that's been soft over the past few months and why you expect it to be softer? It sounds like that's -- correct me if I'm wrong, but it sounds like that's maybe one of the key factors in terms of the softer Market Intelligence and Ratings outlook than what you had for the Investor Day?

    我想請您談談2026年銀行貸款發放的展望。我很好奇為什麼過去幾個月情況一直比較溫和,以及為什麼你預期情況會變得更溫和?聽起來像是——如果我理解有誤請指正——但聽起來這可能是導致市場情報和評級展望比您在投資者日上所說的更疲軟的關鍵因素之一?

  • Martina Cheung - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Martina Cheung - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Hi, Jason. Thanks for the question. So I think for bank loans, if you take a step back, it's more of the mix -- the overall mix that we expect, right? So in Q4, we saw a 50% increase in investment-grade issuance in Ratings. And so that weighed on the overall mix, which monetized -- made the like effective monetization a little bit lower than we would have seen had it been more skewed towards high yield and bank loans, for example. And so think of it as more of the mix.

    是的。嗨,傑森。謝謝你的提問。所以我覺得,對於銀行貸款來說,如果你退一步來看,更重要的是組合——我們預期的整體組合,對吧?因此,在第四季度,我們看到評級機構公佈的投資等級債券發行量增加了 50%。因此,這給整體組合帶來了壓力,使得實際貨幣化程度略低於我們預期中如果更側重於高收益債券和銀行貸款的情況。所以,不妨把它看作是混合物中的更多一種。

  • I think if you look into 2026, the near-term maturity walls are reasonably evenly mixed between high yield and investment grade. There is that opportunity there for more investment grade if the issuance of hyperscalers were to increase. And so all of this we take into consideration not just as part of course of the Billed Issuance, but also as part of the revenue guide.

    我認為,如果展望 2026 年,近期到期債券的組成將相當均勻地分佈在高收益債券和投資等級債券之間。如果超大規模資料中心的債券發行量增加,那麼就會有更多投資等級債券湧現的機會。因此,我們不僅將所有這些因素納入帳單開立流程的考慮範圍,而且還將其納入收入指南的考慮範圍。

  • And so ultimately, I think we continue to expect to see a little bit of softness in bank loans as we think about the initial -- the overall guide here for Billed Issuance for 2026. And as always, the timing of rate cuts, the spread environment and things like that could impact us to the upside or downside. But generally, we're being prudent on the guide here, including a little bit more softness in bank loans continuing into 2026. Thanks for the question.

    因此,最終,我認為我們預計銀行貸款仍將略有疲軟,因為我們需要考慮 2026 年的初始整體指導方針。和以往一樣,降息的時機、利差環境等因素可能會對我們產生利多或利空的影響。但總的來說,我們在此指南中採取了謹慎的態度,包括將銀行貸款的寬鬆政策延續到 2026 年。謝謝你的提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jeffrey Meuler, Baird.

    Jeffrey Meuler,Baird。

  • Jeffrey Meuler - Analyst

    Jeffrey Meuler - Analyst

  • Can you just comment on how strategically important you think CapIQ is within Market Intelligence? Obviously, vendor consolidation and CCO are two themes. But just like where are there meaningful product integrations with other MI products? Or how you think it impacts cross-sales? Just how we should think about CapIQ potentially impacting MI more broadly beyond the traditionally reported desktop?

    您能否談談您認為CapIQ在市場情報領域具有怎樣的策略重要性?顯然,供應商整合和首席客戶長是兩個主題。但是,與其他MI產品相比,哪些產品有有意義的整合呢?或者您認為這會對交叉銷售產生什麼影響?我們應該如何看待 CapIQ 對 MI 可能產生的更廣泛的影響,而不僅限於傳統意義上的桌面端?

  • Martina Cheung - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Martina Cheung - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Hi, Jeff. It's Martina. Thanks so much for the question. I think -- biggest picture view of desktop is that it's about 6% of our enterprise revenue. And as we think about the desktop going forward, firstly, I would say, we have been really leaning into investing and accelerating the deployment and release of AI-enabled capabilities across the desktop.

    嗨,傑夫。是瑪蒂娜。非常感謝你的提問。我認為——從整體來看,桌面業務約占我們企業收入的 6%。當我們展望桌面未來的發展時,首先,我想說,我們一直在大力投資並加速在桌面領域部署和發佈人工智慧功能。

  • This is very valuable to our customers, the combination of unique content that we are adding is also very valuable. And so the single sign-on between Visible Alpha and the desktop, the single sign-on between the With Intelligence products and desktop. These are all things that create important interconnectedness of this platform.

    這對我們的客戶來說非常有價值,我們添加的獨特內容組合也非常有價值。因此,Visible Alpha 與桌面之間實作了單一登錄,With Intelligence 產品與桌面之間也實作了單一登入。這些因素共同構成了該平台的重要相互連結。

  • And as I said earlier, this is a product that really benefits and works at its highest level of value when it is used in conjunction with the unique data that we provide to our customers. I will say one of the examples of the launches that we did in Q4, for example, is the integration of Doc Intelligence with Salesforce.

    正如我之前所說,這款產品只有與我們向客戶提供的獨特數據結合使用時,才能真正發揮其最大價值並帶來最大效益。例如,我們在第四季推出的產品之一,就是將 Doc Intelligence 與 Salesforce 整合。

  • Now that's something that our users who have really adopted Document Intelligence are asking us for. And so we're seeing a good reception from our users around all the ways in which we're enhancing the desktop and that's coming through not just through the CCO conversations, but our broader usage base as well.

    現在,這正是真正採用文件智慧技術的使用者向我們提出的要求。因此,我們看到用戶對我們改進桌面系統的各種方式都給予了良好的反響,這不僅體現在首席客戶官的討論中,也體現在我們更廣泛的用戶群中。

  • And maybe, look, I'd add just one last point on this. Unsolicited, I've had two Ratings analysts come to me in the last several weeks and tell that ChartIQ has been life-changing for them. And a fun fact is that the Ratings analysts are actually the largest power user group of CapIQ Pro. So it was nice to hear that on an unsolicited basis from our own internal customers as well. So thanks for the question, Jeff.

    最後,我還要補充一點。在過去的幾周里,有兩位評級分析師主動聯繫我,告訴我 ChartIQ 改變了他們的生活。還有一個有趣的事實是,評級分析師實際上是 CapIQ Pro 最大的高級用戶群。所以,很高興能從我們自己的內部客戶那裡主動聽到這樣的回饋。謝謝你的提問,傑夫。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Andrew Nicholas, William Blair.

    安德魯·尼古拉斯,威廉·布萊爾。

  • Andrew Nicholas - Analyst

    Andrew Nicholas - Analyst

  • I wanted to double back on capital allocation. And more specifically, the preference between buybacks and M&A. Obviously, it sounds like With Intelligence has gone very well and quicker than expected. You talked countless times about how important proprietary data is to your moat in this new AI paradigm.

    我想重新調整資本配置。更具體地說,是股票回購和併購之間的偏好。顯然,With Intelligence 的發展似乎非常順利,而且比預期的速度更快。你曾無數次談到專有數據對於你在新人工智慧範式下的護城河有多麼重要。

  • So I'm just understanding you want to be aggressive on the buybacks. Also in light of those factors, curious how you stack or rank the priorities and where you might be most interested to deploy capital on the M&A front going forward?

    所以我的理解是,你們想在股票回購方面採取積極的策略。考慮到這些因素,我很好奇您如何對這些優先事項進行排序,以及您未來最有興趣在併購方面將資金部署到哪些領域?

  • Eric Aboaf - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Eric Aboaf - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Andrew, it's Eric. Let me start and say that we're focused on all the opportunities in the marketplace. I think right now, we see a potential opportunity with buybacks, just given the stock market performance, accretion, and so forth. And so it's a natural time for us to accelerate some of the buybacks from the back half of the year into the first half of the year and in a way, that is the active financial management that we're doing.

    安德魯,我是埃里克。首先我想說的是,我們專注於市場上的所有機會。我認為,鑑於目前的股市表現、成長等等,我們現在看到了股票回購的潛在機會。因此,現在正是我們將下半年的一些股票回購提前到上半年進行的好時機,從某種意義上說,這就是我們正在進行的積極的財務管理。

  • I think at the same time, we're not signaling that buybacks are more important than growth. In fact, growth is what dominates our thinking, our activity, our actions, how to fund the growth through productivity. I got into that earlier. But buybacks is just one of the many tools.

    我認為同時,我們並沒有發出股票回購比成長更重要的訊號。事實上,成長主導著我們的思維、活動和行動,以及如何透過提高生產力來為成長提供資金。我之前就遇到過這種情況。但回購只是眾多工具之一。

  • I think the other tools are continuing to invest through the P&L. We've done that actively this quarter and that -- we even did that with a view that margin might decline or not expand as quickly as we like in one business. But we did that very consciously and purposely and see good payback. And I think in M&A, you saw us do the acquisition that we'd like to do, which is a bolt-on or tuck-in or complementary consolidating acquisition that's going to fuel future growth. And so pretty consistent.

    我認為其他工具將繼續透過損益表進行投資。本季我們積極採取了這種措施,而且——我們甚至考慮到某個業務的利潤率可能會下降或成長速度不如我們預期。但我們這樣做是經過深思熟慮和精心策劃的,並且看到了良好的回報。我認為在併購方面,你們看到了我們進行了我們想做的收購,即補充性、嵌入式或互補性整合收購,這將推動未來的成長。所以相當一致。

  • But maybe turn it over to Martina, as well.

    但或許也可以交給瑪蒂娜。

  • Martina Cheung - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Martina Cheung - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Thanks, Eric. Andrew, maybe the only other point I would add is -- and you hear me saying this all the time, we don't have any upside for transformational M&A. We're going to be -- always going to be very disciplined. And ultimately, we're solving for long-term shareholder value as part of this. Thanks for the question.

    是的。謝謝你,埃里克。安德魯,我可能唯一要補充的一點是——你經常聽到我說這句話——轉型併購對我們沒有任何好處。我們將-將始終保持高度自律。最終,我們這樣做是為了實現股東的長期價值。謝謝你的提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Peter Christiansen, Citi.

    彼得‧克里斯蒂安森,花旗集團。

  • Peter Christiansen - Analyst

    Peter Christiansen - Analyst

  • Martina, you continue to call out to centralized finance as a strategic focus. The thinking is as D5 protocols increasingly embed real-world assets, credit exposure, do you see a role for S&P on onchain credit assessment or Oracle style type of verification? Or is the strategy more to be a layer removed from direct protocol integration? And I'm just curious if we see market structure legislation get past this year, does that equate to a stepped-up investment in D5?

    瑪蒂娜,你一直呼籲將集中式財務作為策略重點。隨著 D5 協議越來越多地嵌入現實世界的資產和信用風險,您認為標普在鏈上信用評估或預言機式驗證方面能發揮什麼作用?或者,這種策略更傾向於與直接協定整合保持一定的距離?我很好奇,如果今年市場結構立法獲得通過,這是否意味著D5的投資將會增加?

  • Martina Cheung - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Martina Cheung - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Hi, Peter. Thanks for the question. And I'd maybe answer this in the context of Ratings and Index where we see some of the earlier opportunities here. So we're excited about this. We've been calling it out because we see a really good opportunity and we've been leaning into it.

    你好,彼得。謝謝你的提問。我或許會從評級和指數的角度來回答這個問題,因為我們在這裡看到了一些早期的機會。我們對此感到很興奮。我們一直在強調這一點,因為我們看到了一個非常好的機會,我們一直在努力抓住這個機會。

  • So our Stablecoin stability assessments, for example, are frequently featured as part of describing the overall health of some of the Stablecoin issuers. And so you'll see us mentioned quite frequently in terms of helping the market to understand the risk associated with various different Stablecoin. And we cover the vast majority of Stablecoin market cap.

    例如,我們的穩定幣穩定性評估經常被用作描述某些穩定幣發行者整體健康狀況的一部分。因此,您會經常看到我們被提及,因為我們致力於幫助市場了解各種不同穩定幣的相關風險。我們涵蓋了穩定幣市值的絕大部分。

  • I'd also say that we have been leaning into our methodologies for thinking about rating some of these things. So we did the first rating of a protocol. For example, in Q3, we mentioned that in one of our prior calls. And that was a way for us to signal to the market that we are leaning into assessing the risk of these new types of infrastructure providers and protocols. So I'd say, definitely leaning in.

    我還要說,我們一直在運用我們已有的方法論來思考如何對其中一些事物進行評級。所以我們對該協議進行了首次評級。例如,在第三季度,我們在先前的電話會議中提到過這一點。這是我們向市場發出信號的一種方式,表明我們正在積極評估這些新型基礎設施提供者和協議的風險。所以我覺得,絕對要積極參與。

  • And then for onchain presence, we have some partnerships. We've actually had those partnerships for years now, and we're excited about the potential opportunity therefore on chain credit assessment.

    此外,在鏈上業務方面,我們也有一些合作夥伴。事實上,我們已經與這些機構建立了多年的合作關係,因此我們對連鎖信用評估的潛在機會感到興奮。

  • In Index, I would say that we've been innovating very, very quickly here. You've seen us announce the opportunity to tokenize the 500 onchain. We've done some really innovative launches off the back of that tokenization. So I'd say tokenization there is a good opportunity for that business.

    就 Index 而言,我認為我們一直在快速創新。您已經看到我們宣布了將 500 代幣化到鏈上的機會。我們藉助代幣化技術,推出了一些非常創新的產品。所以我認為代幣化對這家企業來說是一個很好的機會。

  • And we're going to talk to you a lot more about this over the course of the year, but I appreciate the question. And we see it as an opportunity, and we're leaning in. Thanks, Peter.

    今年我們會就此主題進行更多討論,但我很感謝你的提問。我們將其視為機遇,並積極把握機會。謝謝你,彼得。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Sean Kennedy, Mizuho.

    Sean Kennedy,瑞穗銀行。

  • Sean Kennedy - Equity Analyst

    Sean Kennedy - Equity Analyst

  • So I know there was some pull forward this quarter, but I was wondering if the expected investment in AI capabilities and products is greater than what you were thinking six months or even three months ago with everything that's happening in the AI and software markets? And how Kensho provides a significant advantage here versus the competition?

    我知道本季有一些提前完成的計劃,但我想知道,考慮到人工智慧和軟體市場目前的發展狀況,對人工智慧能力和產品的預期投資是否比您六個月前甚至三個月前預想的要多?Kensho 相較於競爭對手有哪些顯著優勢?

  • Eric Aboaf - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Eric Aboaf - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Sean, it's Eric. Let me start. No, this is not a higher level of investments in aggregate for the year. We don't expect that to be higher than expected next year from relative to six months ago. I mean, we routinely invest through the P&L 3%, 4% of our expense base.

    肖恩,我是埃里克。我先開始。不,這並不是說今年的總投資額更高。我們預計明年這數字不會高於六個月前的預期。我的意思是,我們通常會將損益表中 3% 到 4% 的費用用於投資。

  • And we're just continuing to do that. We're just shifting in some cases how we invest, where we invest, and the particle feature functionalities that are important to customers changes over time. But we see it as quite sustainable and just part of our continued pattern.

    而我們也一直在這樣做。我們只是在某些情況下改變投資方式、投資地點,以及對客戶而言重要的粒子功能會隨著時間而改變。但我們認為這是完全可持續的,只是我們持續發展模式的一部分。

  • Martina Cheung - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Martina Cheung - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And maybe I'd just add in there, Sean. Just by having the Kensho team and our choice in how to allocate those as a really valuable scarce resource, that also gives us a lot of leverage around how we can actually make things happen more quickly across the organization as well as how we can actually generate growth opportunities through Kensho Labs.

    或許我還可以補充一句,肖恩。僅僅因為擁有 Kensho 團隊,以及我們能夠選擇如何分配這些非常寶貴的稀缺資源,就賦予了我們很大的影響力,使我們能夠在整個組織內更快地推進各項工作,並透過 Kensho Labs 創造成長機會。

  • So well, thank you so much for all your time today. I'd like to reiterate how proud I am of what we've accomplished in 2025. We have a clearly defined strategy, an incredible leadership team, the best people, and deep relationships with our customers and partners, all aligned on our mission of advancing essential intelligence.

    非常感謝你今天抽出時間。我想再次強調,我對我們在 2025 年的成就感到非常自豪。我們擁有明確的策略、卓越的領導團隊、最優秀的人才,以及與客戶和合作夥伴的深厚關係,所有這些都圍繞著推動關鍵情報的使命而展開。

  • Thank you to our customers, our people, and our shareholders who continue to support us in this mission. We are exceptionally well positioned and excited about the opportunity to drive value in 2026. Thanks for joining the call today.

    感謝我們的客戶、員工和股東們一直以來對我們使命的支持。我們擁有得天獨厚的優勢,並對在 2026 年創造價值的機會感到無比興奮。感謝您今天參加電話會議。