標普全球 (SPGI) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to S&P Global's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. I'd like to inform you that this call is being recorded for broadcast. (Operator Instructions) To access the webcast and slides, go to investor.spglobal.com. (Operator Instructions)

各位早安，歡迎參加 S&P Global 2023 年第四季暨全年財報電話會議。我想提醒各位，本次通話將被錄音以供播出。（接線員指示）如需收看網路直播與投影片，請前往 investor.spglobal.com。（接線員指示）

I would now like to introduce Mr. Mark Grant, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations for S&P Global. Sir, you may begin.

現在我想介紹 S&P Global 投資人關係資深副總裁 Mark Grant 先生。先生，您可以開始了。

Good morning, and thank you for joining today's S&P Global Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Call. Presenting on today's call are: Doug Peterson, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Ewout Steenbergen, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. For the Q&A portion of today's call, we will also be joined by Adam Kansler, President of S&P Global Market Intelligence; and Martina Cheung, President of S&P Global Ratings.

各位早安，感謝各位參加今天的 S&P Global 2023 年第四季暨全年財報電話會議。今天出席並發言的有：總裁兼執行長 Doug Peterson；以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Ewout Steenbergen。在今天問答環節，我們也將邀請 S&P Global Market Intelligence 總裁 Adam Kansler，以及 S&P Global Ratings 總裁 Martina Cheung 一同參與。

We issued a press release with our results earlier today. In addition, we have posted a supplemental slide deck with additional information on our results and guidance. If you need a copy of the release and financial schedules or the supplemental deck, they can be downloaded at investor.spglobal.com.

我們已於今日稍早發布新聞稿公布業績。此外，我們也已上傳一份補充投影片簡報，提供更多關於我們業績與財測指引的資訊。如您需要新聞稿與財務附表或補充簡報，可至 investor.spglobal.com 下載。

The matters discussed in today's conference call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including projections, estimates and descriptions of future events. Any such statements are based on current expectations and current economic conditions and are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from results anticipated in these forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning these risks and uncertainties can be found in our Forms 10-K and 10-Q filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

今日電話會議所討論事項可能包含《1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法》所定義的前瞻性陳述，包括預測、估計及對未來事件的描述。任何此類陳述均基於目前預期與當前經濟狀況，並受風險與不確定性影響，可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述所預期的結果出現重大差異。關於這些風險與不確定性的更多資訊，請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 與 10-Q 表格。

In today's earnings release and during the conference call, we're providing non-GAAP adjusted financial information. This information is provided to enable investors to make meaningful comparisons of the company's operating performance between periods and to view the company's business from the same perspective as management. The earnings release contains financial measures calculated in accordance with GAAP that corresponds to the non-GAAP measures we're providing and contains reconciliations of such GAAP and non-GAAP measures. The financial metrics we'll be discussing today refer to non-GAAP adjusted metrics unless explicitly noted otherwise.

在今日的財報新聞稿及本次電話會議中，我們提供非 GAAP 的調整後財務資訊。提供此資訊旨在使投資人能在不同期間之間對公司的營運表現進行有意義的比較，並從與管理層相同的角度看待公司的業務。財報新聞稿包含依 GAAP 計算、可對應我們所提供之非 GAAP 指標的財務衡量，並提供 GAAP 與非 GAAP 指標之間的調節表。除非另有明確說明，今天我們討論的財務指標均指非 GAAP 調整後指標。

I would also like to call your attention to certain European regulations. Any investor who has or expects to obtain ownership of 5% or more of S&P Global should contact Investor Relations to better understand the potential impact of this legislation on the investor and the company.

我也想提醒各位注意某些歐洲法規。任何已持有或預期取得 S&P Global 5% 或以上持股的投資人，應聯絡投資人關係部門，以更充分了解該立法對投資人及公司可能造成的影響。

We are aware that we have some media representatives with us on the call. However, this call is intended for investors, and we would ask that questions from the media be directed to our Media Relations team, whose contact information can be found in the release.

我們知道本次電話會議中有部分媒體代表與會。然而，本次會議主要面向投資人，我們請媒體的提問改向我們的媒體關係團隊提出，其聯絡資訊可在新聞稿中找到。

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Doug Peterson. Doug?

此刻，我想把電話交給 Doug Peterson。Doug？

Thank you, Mark. 2023 was an exciting year for S&P Global, a year of innovation and growth. Our results in 2023 serve as a testament to strong execution and S&P Global's unique position at the center of the global markets.

謝謝你，Mark。2023 年對 S&P Global 而言是令人振奮的一年，是創新與成長的一年。我們在 2023 年的成果證明了強勁的執行力，以及 S&P Global 立足於全球市場核心的獨特地位。

Excluding Engineering Solutions, which was divested in the second quarter of last year, revenue increased 8% year-over-year. We expanded adjusted operating margins by almost 300 basis points year-over-year in the fourth quarter to finish the year with approximately 100 basis points of margin expansion. And we surpassed our $600 million target for cost synergies by $19 million. We delivered adjusted EPS growth of 13% to come in at the high end of our guidance range as we continued to benefit from strong revenue growth, disciplined expense management and a commitment to strong capital returns.

排除於去年第二季已處分的 Engineering Solutions，營收年增 8%。第四季調整後營業利益率年增近 300 個基點，全年約擴張 100 個基點。我們也超越 6 億美元的成本綜效目標 1,900 萬美元。調整後每股盈餘（EPS）成長 13%，落在我們財測區間的高端；這得益於強勁的營收成長、嚴謹的費用管理，以及對強勁資本回饋的承諾。

On the topic of capital returns, 2023 marked the 50th consecutive year that S&P Global has increased its cash dividend. And we've already announced the Board approval to make 2024 the 51st. In 2023, we returned $4.4 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, representing more than 100% of our adjusted free cash flow.

談到資本回饋，2023 年是 S&P Global 連續第 50 年提高現金股利。我們也已宣布董事會核准，讓 2024 年成為連續第 51 年。2023 年我們透過股利與庫藏股回購向股東返還 44 億美元，超過我們調整後自由現金流的 100%。

In addition to strong financial performance, we created a formal artificial intelligence leadership team in 2023, which we'll discuss in more detail shortly. We also delivered double-digit growth and significant innovation in key strategic investment areas.

除了強勁的財務表現之外，我們在 2023 年成立了正式的人工智慧領導團隊，稍後我們將更詳細說明。我們也在關鍵策略投資領域實現了雙位數成長並帶來顯著創新。

Private Market Solutions and Sustainability & Energy Transition both delivered double-digit growth in 2023. And we're well positioned to continue growing in these important areas in 2024. Our Vitality Index, which we target to remain at or above 10% of company revenue, actually exceeded 11% in 2023 and also increased at a double-digit rate.

Private Market Solutions 與 Sustainability & Energy Transition 在 2023 年皆實現雙位數成長。我們也已做好準備在 2024 年持續於這些重要領域成長。我們的 Vitality Index（活力指數）目標是維持在公司營收的 10% 或以上，而 2023 年實際超過 11%，同時也以雙位數速度成長。

In 2023, we delivered key wins in each of the 5 strategic pillars we introduced at the end of 2022. We look forward to accelerating that success in 2024 and continuing our track record of creating value for our customers and our shareholders. We know that our success depends on creating value for our customers, and we delivered for them in 2023.

2023 年，我們在 2022 年底提出的 5 大策略支柱上都取得了關鍵成果。我們期待在 2024 年加速這些成功，並延續為客戶與股東創造價值的紀錄。我們知道成功取決於為客戶創造價值，而我們在 2023 年也確實為客戶交出成果。

We improved customer retention rates in several of our divisions last year while continuing to introduce new products and features more quickly and more frequently. Through deep engagement with customers around the world, tens of thousands of customer touch points, we saw continued adoption of enterprise contracts in Market Intelligence and acceleration of enterprise agreements in Commodity Insights.

去年我們在多個事業部提升了客戶留存率，同時持續更快、更頻繁地推出新產品與新功能。透過與全球客戶的深度互動、數以萬計的客戶接觸點，我們看到 Market Intelligence 的企業合約持續被採用，以及 Commodity Insights 的企業協議加速成長。

We know that certain customer verticals, particularly financial services and regional banks, had unique challenges in 2023. While we discussed longer sales cycles through 2023, we were able to keep our sales pipeline moving and continued to demonstrate value for our customers even in challenging times.

我們知道某些客戶垂直產業，尤其是金融服務與區域性銀行，在 2023 年面臨獨特挑戰。雖然我們在 2023 年持續討論到較長的銷售週期，但我們仍能讓銷售管線持續推進，並在艱難時期持續向客戶展現價值。

As we look to 2024, we continue to see macroeconomic market and geopolitical challenges. Our customers need unique and differentiated datasets and key insights for the markets they serve, which means our role as a trusted and strategic partner is more important than ever.

展望 2024 年，我們仍看到總體經濟、市場與地緣政治方面的挑戰。我們的客戶需要獨特且具差異化的資料集，以及其所服務市場的關鍵洞見，這也意味著我們作為值得信賴且具策略性的合作夥伴之角色，比以往任何時候都更為重要。

Now nearly 2 years after the merger, we've put the work of operational integration behind us, and we have fully turned to the exciting work of growth, innovation and execution. We remain committed to balancing margin expansion with strategic initiatives and long-term growth.

在合併將近兩年後，我們已完成營運整合的工作，並已全面轉向令人振奮的成長、創新與執行。我們仍致力於在擴大利潤率與推動策略性計畫及長期成長之間取得平衡。

We will also look for ways to optimize our portfolio of products and services. With the merger integration behind us, we plan to continue reviewing and optimizing our portfolio of assets to meet our customers' needs either through tuck-in acquisitions or potentially further divestitures as you've seen us do historically.

我們也將尋找方式來最佳化我們的產品與服務組合。隨著合併整合告一段落，我們計畫持續檢視並最佳化資產組合，以滿足客戶需求；方式可能包括補強型併購（tuck-in acquisitions），或如同各位過去所見，可能進一步進行資產處分。

Turning to the 2023 issuance environment. We saw strong growth in billed issuance in 2023, particularly in the second half. In the fourth quarter, we continued to see issuers returning to the market with billed issuance growth driven primarily by strength in bank loans, structured finance and high yield. This contributed to a successful rebound for the full year 2023 with billed issuance increasing 8%.

接著談 2023 年的發行環境。2023 年我們看到計費發行量（billed issuance）強勁成長，尤其在下半年。第四季，我們持續看到發行人回到市場，計費發行量成長主要由銀行貸款、結構性融資與高收益債的強勁表現所帶動。這促成 2023 年全年成功反彈，計費發行量成長 8%。

Turning to Vitality. We're pleased to see the continued outperformance in our index to close out 2023. As we shared with you when we introduced this metric a little over a year ago, our goal is to make sure at least 10% of our revenue comes from new or enhanced products each year. As products mature, they'll naturally age out of the Vitality Index even if they continue to grow rapidly. But we remain committed to that 10% target as a steady stream of innovation takes the place of any products that graduate from the index.

接著談 Vitality。我們很高興看到我們的指數在 2023 年底仍持續優於預期。正如我們在一年多前首次介紹此指標時所分享的，我們的目標是確保每年至少 10% 的營收來自新產品或強化後的產品。隨著產品成熟，即使仍快速成長，也會自然從 Vitality Index 中「退役」。但我們仍致力於維持 10% 的目標，透過穩定的創新管線，接替任何從指數中畢業的產品。

We view the Vitality Index as a direct measure of the value our customers are realizing from the improvements we're making in our products and services each year. With 18% growth in revenue from Vitality products in 2023, we ended the year with more than 11% of our total revenue coming from these new offerings. This is an incredible achievement by our product development and commercial teams as they not only built great products and features in 2023 but also made sure our customers were aware and equipped to benefit from the innovation we are bringing to the table.

我們將 Vitality Index 視為衡量客戶每年從我們對產品與服務所做改進中所獲得價值的直接指標。2023 年 Vitality 產品營收成長 18%，使我們在年底時，這些新產品貢獻的營收占總營收超過 11%。這是我們產品開發與商務團隊的卓越成果：他們不僅在 2023 年打造出優秀的產品與功能，也確保客戶了解並具備條件，能從我們帶來的創新中受益。

Across divisions, we've seen new products in 2023 that demonstrate our commitment to Powering Global Markets in a world of rapidly evolving technology. First, in another compelling example of our cross-divisional development between Market Intelligence and Commodity Insights, we launched our Power Evaluator tool. It's already received great feedback from power utility market participants.

在各事業部方面，我們在 2023 年推出的新產品展現了我們在科技快速演進的世界中，致力於「驅動全球市場（Powering Global Markets）」的承諾。首先，作為 Market Intelligence 與 Commodity Insights 跨事業部共同開發的另一個有力例證，我們推出了 Power Evaluator 工具。它已獲得電力公用事業市場參與者的高度正面回饋。

Additionally, in Commodity Insights, we combined the most powerful features of two leading commodity platforms, Platts Dimensions Pro and IHS Connect to create Platts Connect, which we believe is the market's most holistic source of data, insights and tools custom-built for commodity market participants.

此外，在 Commodity Insights 方面，我們結合兩個領先大宗商品平台 Platts Dimensions Pro 與 IHS Connect 的最強大功能，打造 Platts Connect；我們相信這是市場上最全面的資料、洞見與工具來源，並為大宗商品市場參與者量身打造。

In Market Intelligence, we also significantly enhanced Capital IQ Pro. June saw the release of one of the largest and most important updates in years. And we're thrilled with the preliminary release of our new generative AI solution, ChatIQ, to a set of pilot customers in December. We're excited for more customers to get access to these proprietary tools as 2024 progresses. We also launched powerful new tools with our new Supplier Risk Indicator and Entity Insights offerings.

在市場情報（Market Intelligence）方面，我們也大幅強化了 Capital IQ Pro。6 月推出了多年來規模最大、也最重要的更新之一。我們也很高興在 12 月將全新的生成式 AI 解決方案 ChatIQ 以預先版本提供給一組試點客戶。我們期待在 2024 年的進程中，讓更多客戶能夠使用這些專有工具。我們也推出了強大的新工具，包括全新的供應商風險指標（Supplier Risk Indicator）與實體洞察（Entity Insights）產品。

In Ratings, we continue to deliver assessments and insights to help market participants evaluate different assets. And we leveraged our expertise in blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies to launch the first Stablecoin Stability Assessment in late 2023. 2023 saw the launch of several new indices as well, including the S&P/B3 Corporate Bond Index in Brazil, multiple cross-asset indices and new sector, factor and thematic indices that we believe will contribute to strong growth in the years to come.

在評級（Ratings）方面，我們持續提供評估與洞察，協助市場參與者評估不同資產。我們也運用在區塊鏈技術與加密貨幣方面的專業，於 2023 年底推出首個穩定幣穩定性評估（Stablecoin Stability Assessment）。2023 年也推出了多個新指數，包括巴西的 S&P/B3 公司債指數（S&P/B3 Corporate Bond Index）、多個跨資產指數，以及新的產業、因子與主題指數；我們相信這些將在未來幾年帶動強勁成長。

As we mentioned last quarter, we want to provide an update on our AI strategy. We've elevated the focus on artificial intelligence to make sure we have executive leadership, governance and sponsorship at the enterprise level. In late 2023, we announced internally that our former Chief Information Officer, Swamy Kocherlakota, would take on the new role as Chief Digital Solutions Officer, including executive sponsorship of AI and Kensho. Bhavesh Dayalji, CEO of Kensho, has expanded his role to now lead cross-divisional AI initiatives as our first Chief Artificial Intelligence Officer.

如同我們在上季提到的，我們希望就 AI 策略提供最新進展。我們已提升對人工智慧的關注，以確保在企業層級具備高階主管領導、治理與贊助。於 2023 年底，我們在內部宣布，前任資訊長（Chief Information Officer）Swamy Kocherlakota 將擔任新職務「數位解決方案長」（Chief Digital Solutions Officer），並包含對 AI 與 Kensho 的高階贊助。Kensho 執行長 Bhavesh Dayalji 也擴大其職責，現將以我們首任「人工智慧長」（Chief Artificial Intelligence Officer）的身分，領導跨事業部的 AI 計畫。

These changes to our leadership structure around technology, and especially around AI, are the next logical steps in the commitment to AI that began with our initial investment in Kensho nearly 7 years ago. As part of this strategy, we've developed an AI accelerator to fast-track high-priority AI initiatives and build common capabilities that can be deployed and used by teams across the enterprise.

我們在技術領導架構、尤其是 AI 方面的這些調整，是對 AI 承諾的下一個合乎邏輯的步驟；這項承諾始於我們近 7 年前對 Kensho 的初始投資。作為此策略的一部分，我們已開發 AI 加速器（AI accelerator），以加速高優先級的 AI 計畫，並建立可在全企業各團隊部署與使用的共通能力。

There are four important ways that we expect our AI to impact our performance: first, through the development of new products and services; second, leveraging Kensho to accelerate and automate manual processes and data operations; third, amplifying the productivity of our internal experts, freeing up more capacity for higher order work; and fourth, embedding AI functionality in existing products to increase customer value and improve user experience. We're committed to keeping you informed about these initiatives. So we've launched a new AI page on our public website, spglobal.ai, which includes important research, our key thought leadership and insights into our developments.

我們預期 AI 將以四個重要方式影響我們的表現：第一，開發新產品與服務；第二，運用 Kensho 加速並自動化人工流程與資料作業；第三，放大內部專家生產力，釋放更多產能投入更高階的工作；第四，將 AI 功能嵌入既有產品，以提升客戶價值並改善使用者體驗。我們承諾會持續讓各位了解這些計畫。因此，我們在公開網站推出新的 AI 專頁 spglobal.ai，內容包含重要研究、我們的關鍵思想領導與對開發進展的洞察。

At S&P Global, we have a strategic vision of the importance of AI to our industry and the world going forward as we believe that AI will quickly become embedded in everything we do. And we have a framework to deliver the best capabilities in as many products as we can and, by extension, into the hands of as many customers as we can as fast as we can. Fortunately, S&P Global starts with some of the most powerful proprietary datasets in the world sourced from all 5 divisions. Our proprietary data layer is a key differentiator that we believe sets us apart.

在 S&P Global，我們對 AI 在未來對產業與世界的重要性有明確的策略願景，因為我們相信 AI 將很快嵌入我們所做的一切。我們也有一套框架，盡可能在更多產品中提供最佳能力，並延伸到盡可能多的客戶手中、以最快速度推進。幸運的是，S&P Global 一開始就擁有全球最強大的專有資料集之一，來源涵蓋五大事業部。我們的專有資料層是關鍵差異化因素，我們相信這使我們脫穎而出。

As we've outlined for you in the past, we remain committed to sound governance, protecting this proprietary data and preventing third parties from monetizing or commercializing our data independently. A challenge that even data-rich companies will face is that much of this data isn't ready to be ingested or used by large language models. The data requires traditional machine learning preprocessing, things like data cleaning, data transformation, data reduction and data integration, but it also requires tokenization and tagging, which can be very resource-intensive.

如同我們過去向各位說明的，我們仍致力於健全治理，保護這些專有資料，並防止第三方獨立將我們的資料變現或商業化。即使是資料豐富的公司也會面臨一項挑戰：其中大量資料尚未準備好可供大型語言模型（LLM）攝取或使用。這些資料需要傳統機器學習的前處理，例如資料清理、資料轉換、資料縮減與資料整合，同時也需要斷詞（tokenization）與標註（tagging），而這可能非常耗費資源。

This is the Kensho layer. The proprietary tools developed over the last several years by the teams at Kensho automate much of the preprocessing work for both structured data like financial reports but also unstructured data like the transcript from this very earnings call. Tools like Scribe, NERD, Link, Extract and Classify do much of this heavy lifting and allow our proprietary data to be leveraged more easily and updated more quickly and frequently.

這就是 Kensho 層。Kensho 團隊在過去數年開發的專有工具，能為結構化資料（如財務報告）以及非結構化資料（如本次財報電話會議的逐字稿）自動化大量前處理工作。像是 Scribe、NERD、Link、Extract 與 Classify 等工具承擔了多數繁重工作，使我們的專有資料更容易被運用，並能更快速、更頻繁地更新。

This leads to the third element of our framework, the open ecosystem. As we've shared with you before, we aren't dependent on any individual technology partner. Having so much AI expertise in-house means that we can leverage infrastructure and compute platforms from multiple hyperscale cloud providers, third-party LLMs, our own proprietary LLMs and a wide array of other vendors without having to lock ourselves in or cede economics to one ecosystem or another.

這引出我們框架的第三個要素：開放生態系。我們先前也與各位分享過，我們不依賴任何單一技術合作夥伴。由於我們內部擁有大量 AI 專業能力，我們可以運用多家超大規模雲端供應商的基礎設施與運算平台、第三方 LLM、我們自有的專有 LLM，以及各式各樣的其他供應商，而無須被綁定或將經濟利益讓渡給某一個生態系。

Ultimately, the goal is to have generative and traditional AI capabilities embedded everywhere that makes sense. We'll track our progress through improving customer win rates, retention rates, price and ultimately growth. It should also show up in our own workflows to improve productivity and efficiency, improving our unit economics and our operating margins over time. We're excited about the significant progress we've made in 2023 and even more excited about what this company will accomplish in 2024 and beyond.

最終目標是在所有合理之處嵌入生成式與傳統 AI 能力。我們將透過提升客戶贏單率、留存率、價格，並最終反映在成長上來追蹤進展。這也應該會體現在我們自身的工作流程中，以提升生產力與效率，並隨時間改善單位經濟效益與營業利潤率。我們對 2023 年取得的重大進展感到振奮，也更期待公司在 2024 年及未來的成就。

Our innovation also extends to the efforts we make to develop our people and improve our communities. In 2023, we held an internal event called Accelerate Progress LIVE to reinforce our commitment to our teams around the world and highlight our purpose and values as a global employer of choice. We provide dedicated time for our people to pursue volunteer opportunities. We saw an 89% increase in the number of S&P Global people who took advantage of these programs in 2023. And as more of our people return to our offices around the world, our global People Resource Groups saw a nearly 50% increase in engagement.

我們的創新也延伸到培育人才與改善社區的努力。2023 年，我們舉辦了一場名為 Accelerate Progress LIVE 的內部活動，以強化我們對全球團隊的承諾，並突顯我們作為全球首選雇主的使命與價值觀。我們提供專屬時間讓同仁投入志工機會。2023 年參與這些計畫的 S&P Global 同仁人數增加了 89%。此外，隨著更多同仁回到全球各地辦公室，我們的全球員工資源社群（People Resource Groups）參與度提升了近 50%。

We also demonstrated our commitment to continuously improve our reporting and transparency around our sustainability and related initiatives. In 2023, we published our 12th annual Impact Report and our fifth annual TCFD Report. We also published our first-ever Diversity, Equity and Inclusion Report, taking much of the information that we have been reporting for years, enhancing our disclosures and making that information more accessible in a dedicated report.

我們也展現了持續改善永續及相關倡議之揭露與透明度的承諾。2023 年，我們發布第 12 份年度影響力報告（Impact Report）與第 5 份年度 TCFD 報告。我們也首次發布多元、公平與共融（Diversity, Equity and Inclusion）報告，將多年來已揭露的資訊加以彙整，強化揭露內容，並透過專屬報告讓資訊更易取得。

We're very pleased that our efforts have been recognized by many external organizations in the last year. S&P Global has iconic global brands and is well-known as a desirable destination for highly skilled professionals around the world. We look forward to building upon that hard-won reputation in 2024.

我們很高興在過去一年中，我們的努力獲得許多外部組織的肯定。S&P Global 擁有具代表性的全球品牌，並以成為全球高技能專業人士嚮往的職涯目的地而聞名。我們期待在 2024 年延續並深化這份來之不易的聲譽。

Turning to our financial results. Ewout will walk through the fourth quarter results in more detail in a moment. But the headline numbers tell a strong story for 2023. We're pleased to see accelerating growth and margin expansion in almost every division in 2023. The 2023 results and the 2024 guidance we're introducing today give us confidence in our trajectory towards the growth and margin targets we introduced at our 2022 Investor Day.

接著談我們的財務結果。Ewout 稍後將更詳細說明第四季表現。但從重點數字即可看出 2023 年的強勁表現。我們很高興看到 2023 年幾乎每個事業部都呈現成長加速與利潤率擴張。2023 年的結果，以及我們今天提出的 2024 年指引，讓我們對朝向 2022 年投資人日所提出的成長與利潤率目標邁進的軌跡更具信心。

As we approach the 2-year anniversary of the merger, we can definitively say it has been a success. In the last 2 years, not only have we brought together 2 world-class organizations, but we've delivered through a challenging period against our aspirational and ambitious targets. We integrated major software systems in record time and consolidated our offices around the world.

隨著合併即將滿兩週年，我們可以明確地說這是一項成功。在過去兩年中，我們不僅整合了兩個世界級組織，也在充滿挑戰的期間，仍依照我們具企圖心的目標交出成果。我們以創紀錄的速度整合主要軟體系統，並整併全球各地辦公室。

We're able to close many of our data centers due in part to a transformational partnership with AWS. We've maintained a disciplined approach to managing our product portfolio. And we demonstrated this commitment through the divestiture of Engineering Solutions and the aftersales business in our Mobility division and also through the decommissioning of a number of low-margin or slower-growth products.

我們得以關閉多座資料中心，部分原因在於與 AWS 的變革性合作夥伴關係。我們在產品組合管理上維持嚴謹紀律。我們也透過出售 Mobility 事業部的 Engineering Solutions 與售後業務，以及汰除多項低毛利或成長較慢的產品，展現了這項承諾。

Lastly, since the merger closed, we've returned $17.5 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. We initially set a target of $480 million in cost synergies, then raised that target to $600 million and have now exceeded that higher target by $19 million. We're ahead of schedule on our revenue synergies to date, and we'll continue to report our progress there.

最後，自合併完成以來，我們已透過庫藏股回購與股利向股東返還 175 億美元。起初我們設定 4.8 億美元的成本綜效目標，之後上調至 6 億美元，而目前已超出該較高目標 1,900 萬美元。迄今我們在營收綜效方面也超前進度，並將持續回報相關進展。

Lastly, we told you when the merger closed that we believed it would be accretive to adjusted EPS by 2023. And I'm pleased to confirm that we have delivered. Both our internal analysis and independent external analysis indicate that in 2023, we delivered higher adjusted EPS than we likely would have generated with S&P Global as a stand-alone company. I'm thrilled to be able to call the merger a success and to move forward to Powering Global Markets as one company.

最後，我們在合併完成時曾告訴各位，我們相信該合併將在 2023 年對調整後 EPS 具增益效果（accretive）。我很高興確認我們已達成。無論是我們的內部分析或獨立的外部分析都顯示，2023 年我們所交出的調整後 EPS，高於若 S&P Global 仍為獨立公司時可能產生的水準。我非常高興能將此次合併稱為成功，並以「Powering Global Markets」作為一家公司的共同使命繼續向前。

Now I'll turn to Ewout to review the financial results. Ewout?

接下來我把時間交給 Ewout 來回顧財務結果。Ewout？

Thank you, Doug. We closed the year with strong fourth quarter performance overall as we saw growth across all 5 of our divisions. Adjusted earnings per share increased 23% year-over-year. Reported revenue grew 7% in the fourth quarter. But excluding the impact of the Engineering Solutions divestiture and the small tuck-ins done earlier this year, revenue growth was 11%. We also expanded adjusted margins by nearly 300 basis points and reduced our fully diluted share count by 3%.

謝謝你，Doug。我們以整體強勁的第四季表現為全年畫下句點，五大事業部皆呈現成長。調整後每股盈餘年增 23%。第四季報告營收成長 7%。但若排除 Engineering Solutions 出售的影響，以及今年稍早完成的小型併購（tuck-ins），營收成長為 11%。我們也將調整後利潤率擴張近 300 個基點，並將完全稀釋後流通股數降低 3%。

Moving to our strategic investment areas. I'm pleased to report we saw growth across all categories. Sustainability & Energy Transition revenue grew 17% to $84 million in the quarter, driven by strong demand for our energy transition products and benchmark offerings. Sustainability & Energy Transition's full year revenue grew 24% to approximately $301 million. As we introduce more products and continue to innovate in the space, we remain committed to this important growth driver for the business.

接著談我們的策略性投資領域。我很高興報告，我們在所有類別都看到成長。永續與能源轉型（Sustainability & Energy Transition）在本季營收成長 17% 至 8,400 萬美元，主要受惠於市場對我們能源轉型產品與基準（benchmark）產品的強勁需求。永續與能源轉型全年營收成長 24% 至約 3.01 億美元。隨著我們推出更多產品並持續在此領域創新，我們仍致力於將其作為公司重要的成長動能。

Moving to Private Market Solutions. We saw revenue increase by 18% year-over-year to $113 million, driven by strong growth in Ratings private market revenue, improved market conditions, increased bank loan issuance, private credit estimates and MI's software solutions. As we progress towards our goal of $600 million of Private Market Solutions revenue by 2026, I'm pleased to report full year revenue grew 10% to $430 million for 2023.

接著談私募市場解決方案（Private Market Solutions）。我們的營收年增 18% 至 1.13 億美元，主要由評等（Ratings）私募市場營收強勁成長、較佳的市場環境、銀行貸款發行增加、私募信貸估值（private credit estimates）以及 MI 的軟體解決方案所帶動。朝著 2026 年私募市場解決方案營收達 6 億美元的目標邁進之際，我很高興報告 2023 年全年營收成長 10% 至 4.30 億美元。

Vitality revenue, which is the revenue generated by innovation through new or enhanced products from across the organization, was $380 million in the fourth quarter, representing a 19% increase compared to the prior year. Importantly, Vitality revenue represented 12% of our total revenue in the quarter, again surpassing our index target of at least 10%.

活力營收（Vitality revenue）係指全組織透過新產品或強化產品所帶來的創新營收，第四季為 3.80 億美元，較去年同期成長 19%。重要的是，活力營收占本季總營收的 12%，再次超越我們至少 10% 的指標目標。

Now turning to synergies. As Doug mentioned earlier, we have completed our cost synergy program associated with the merger and outperformed our stated targets. In the fourth quarter of 2023, we recognized $156 million of expense savings due to cost synergies. And our annualized run rate exiting the year was $619 million, exceeding our goal of $600 million.

接著談協同效益。如 Doug 先前提到，我們已完成與併購相關的成本協同計畫，且表現優於我們所宣示的目標。2023 年第四季，我們因成本協同而認列 1.56 億美元的費用節省。而我們在年底的年化執行率（annualized run rate）為 6.19 億美元，超過 6 億美元的目標。

For the full year, we recognized $581 million in cost savings from synergies. We had been targeting 85% of total cost synergies realized in 2023. And I'm pleased to see that we not only achieved that target, but that we surpassed it by more than $70 million. We continue to make progress on our revenue synergies as well with $40 million in synergies achieved in the fourth quarter and an annualized run rate of $152 million exiting the year.

就全年而言，我們從協同效益中認列 5.81 億美元的成本節省。我們原先目標是在 2023 年實現總成本協同的 85%。我很高興看到，我們不僅達成該目標，且超出超過 7,000 萬美元。我們在營收協同方面也持續取得進展，第四季達成 4,000 萬美元的協同效益，並在年底達到 1.52 億美元的年化執行率。

Now turning to expenses. Our total expenses grew approximately 2% in the fourth quarter, primarily driven by increases in our core and investment growth areas and compensation expenses, which were partially offset by benefits associated with the Engineering Solutions divestiture and cost synergies. On core and investment growth, we continue to make the necessary investments in our strategic initiatives, which includes hiring the right people for key roles and investing in new and existing avenues of growth for our businesses.

接著談費用。我們第四季總費用約成長 2%，主要由核心與投資成長領域的增加以及薪酬費用上升所驅動，部分被工程解決方案（Engineering Solutions）出售所帶來的效益與成本協同所抵銷。在核心與投資成長方面，我們持續對策略性計畫進行必要投資，包括為關鍵職位招募合適人才，以及投資於我們業務的新舊成長途徑。

Within compensation, there are two factors I would like to call out. First, our salary expenses remained elevated due to hiring activity and inflationary pressures throughout 2023. Second, our benefit costs were higher due to finalization of benefits realignment of IHS Markit employees in the fourth quarter.

在薪酬方面，我想特別指出兩個因素。第一，因 2023 年整體招募活動與通膨壓力，我們的薪資費用仍維持在較高水準。第二，由於第四季完成 IHS Markit 員工福利重新調整（benefits realignment）的定案，我們的福利成本較高。

As we go through the divisions, you will see these factors impacting expenses and margins this quarter, particularly in Market Intelligence and Mobility. This drove slightly higher expense growth than we were expecting. But total adjusted expenses still grew only 2% year-over-year in the fourth quarter while revenue increased 7%.

當我們逐一檢視各事業部時，你會看到這些因素在本季對費用與利潤率的影響，尤其是在市場情報（Market Intelligence）與移動（Mobility）部門。這使得費用成長略高於我們的預期。但第四季調整後總費用仍僅年增 2%，而營收成長 7%。

Now let's turn to the division results. Market Intelligence revenue increased 9%, driven by strong growth in Data & Advisory Solutions and Enterprise Solutions. Desktop accelerated to 7% growth in the fourth quarter as continued product innovation, introduction of new content sets and improvements to speed and performance supported strong subscription growth.

現在來看各事業部表現。市場情報（Market Intelligence）營收成長 9%，主要由資料與顧問解決方案（Data & Advisory Solutions）以及企業解決方案（Enterprise Solutions）的強勁成長所帶動。Desktop 在第四季加速至 7% 成長，持續的產品創新、新內容集（content sets）的導入，以及速度與效能的改善，支撐了強勁的訂閱成長。

Data & Advisory Solutions and Enterprise Solutions grew 8% and 10%, respectively. Both benefited from double-digit growth in subscription-based offerings. Credit & Risk Solutions grew 10% in the fourth quarter, supported by strong new sales and price realization.

資料與顧問解決方案（Data & Advisory Solutions）與企業解決方案（Enterprise Solutions）分別成長 8% 與 10%。兩者皆受惠於訂閱型產品的雙位數成長。信用與風險解決方案（Credit & Risk Solutions）在第四季成長 10%，由強勁的新銷售與價格落實（price realization）所支撐。

While renewal rates remained strong overall for MI, we did see slightly elevated cancellations in the fourth quarter as customers, particularly in the financial services vertical, continued to see some budgetary constraints. Combined with the modest softness in nonrecurring revenue, this resulted in total revenue for MI slightly below our expectations, though we continue to see accelerating growth for the division in the fourth quarter.

雖然 MI 的整體續約率仍維持強勁，但我們確實在第四季看到取消（cancellations）略為升高，因客戶（尤其是金融服務垂直領域）仍面臨一些預算限制。再加上非經常性營收（nonrecurring revenue）溫和走弱，使得 MI 的總營收略低於我們的預期；不過我們仍看到該事業部在第四季的成長加速。

Adjusted expenses increased 4% year-over-year primarily due to higher compensation expense, an increase in royalties and data costs, partially offset by cost synergies. Operating profit increased 18% and the operating margin increased 280 basis points to 34.2%. For full year 2023, margins improved by 120 basis points to 33%. The margin results are below our guidance range and are a result of a combination of an admittedly strong top line falling short of our expectations and expenses being slightly higher due to the reasons I mentioned.

調整後費用年增 4%，主要因薪酬費用較高，以及權利金與資料成本增加，部分被成本協同所抵銷。營業利益成長 18%，營業利益率提升 280 個基點至 34.2%。2023 年全年，利潤率提升 120 個基點至 33%。利潤率結果低於我們的指引區間，原因是多項因素綜合所致：一方面（坦白說）強勁的營收表現仍未達到我們的預期，另一方面費用也因我提到的原因而略高。

Now turning to Ratings. In the fourth quarter, we saw refinancing activity drive issuance as improving market conditions reduced borrowing costs and macroeconomic indicators gave issuers comfort coming to the market even in December, which is historically a very quiet month for debt issuance.

接著談評等（Ratings）。第四季我們看到再融資活動帶動發行量；市場環境改善降低了借款成本，而總體經濟指標也讓發行人更有信心進入市場，即使是在 12 月——歷來債務發行非常清淡的月份。

Revenue increased 19% year-over-year, exceeding our internal expectations. Transaction revenue grew 35% in the fourth quarter as heightened refinancing activity increased bank loan and high-yield issuance. Non-transaction revenue increased 10%, primarily due to an increase in annual and program fees and growth at CRISIL.

營收年增 19%，超出我們內部預期。第四季交易型營收（transaction revenue）成長 35%，因再融資活動升溫帶動銀行貸款與高收益（high-yield）發行增加。非交易型營收（non-transaction revenue）成長 10%，主要由年度費用與方案費用（program fees）增加，以及 CRISIL 的成長所帶動。

Adjusted expenses increased 6%, driven by higher compensation, which includes hiring associated with growth initiatives at CRISIL and higher incentives due to financial performance. This resulted in a 32% increase in operating profit and an impressive 540 basis point increase in operating margin to 53.4%. For the full year 2023, margins increased by 60 basis points to 56.5%.

調整後費用成長 6%，主要由較高的薪酬所驅動，其中包括與 CRISIL 成長計畫相關的招募，以及因財務表現而提高的獎酬。這使得營業利益成長 32%，營業利益率大幅提升 540 個基點至 53.4%。2023 年全年，利潤率提升 60 個基點至 56.5%。

And now turning to Commodity Insights. Revenue growth increased 10% following a third consecutive quarter of double-digit growth in both Price Assessments and Energy & Resources Data & Insights. Upstream Data & Insights revenue grew by approximately 3% year-over-year, benefiting from strong demand for software product offerings as well as significant improvement in retention rates. The business line continues to prioritize growth in its subscription base.

接著談大宗商品洞察（Commodity Insights）。在價格評估（Price Assessments）與能源與資源資料與洞察（Energy & Resources Data & Insights）連續第三季皆呈雙位數成長後，營收成長提升至 10%。上游資料與洞察（Upstream Data & Insights）營收年增約 3%，受惠於軟體產品的強勁需求，以及留存率顯著改善。該業務線持續優先推動訂閱基礎的成長。

Price Assessments and Energy & Resources Data & Insights grew 12% and 13%, respectively. Growth was driven by continued strength in our benchmark data and insights products. Both business lines continue to see robust subscription sales driven by strong commercial momentum and enhanced value being delivered to customers.

價格評估（Price Assessments）與能源與資源資料與洞察（Energy & Resources Data & Insights）分別成長 12% 與 13%。成長主要由我們基準資料與洞察產品的持續強勢所帶動。兩條業務線持續看到強勁的訂閱銷售，來自良好的商業動能以及為客戶提供的價值提升。

Advisory & Transactional Services revenue grew 8%, driven by strong trading volumes across all sectors in Global Trading Services and strength in energy transition-related product offerings. These market-driven volumes helped GTS deliver its strongest quarter of 2023.

顧問與交易服務（Advisory & Transactional Services）營收成長 8%，主要由全球交易服務（Global Trading Services）各領域強勁的交易量，以及與能源轉型相關產品的強勢表現所帶動。這些由市場驅動的交易量，協助 GTS 交出 2023 年最強的一季。

Adjusted expenses increased 10%, primarily driven by higher compensation and continued investment in growth initiatives, partially offset by cost synergies. Operating profit for Commodity Insights increased 10% and operating margin contracted 20 basis points to 44.4%.

調整後費用成長 10%，主要由較高的薪酬與持續投入成長計畫所驅動，部分被成本協同所抵銷。大宗商品洞察（Commodity Insights）的營業利益成長 10%，營業利益率收縮 20 個基點至 44.4%。

There are a few factors I would like to call out that contributed to CI's very modest margin contraction in the fourth quarter. In addition to the compensation drivers I mentioned earlier, we saw an increase in performance-related compensation due to the top line outperformance.

我想點出幾個因素，這些因素導致 CI 在第四季出現非常輕微的利潤率收縮。除了我先前提到的薪酬驅動因素外，由於營收端表現優於預期，我們也看到與績效相關的薪酬增加。

We remain very confident in the growth opportunities for Commodity Insights and also wanted to make sure we continue to adequately invest to capture those opportunities. Trailing 12-month margin, which we believe is the best way to assess the performance of our divisions, increased by 180 basis points to 46.1% in 2023.

我們對大宗商品洞察（Commodity Insights）的成長機會仍非常有信心，也希望確保持續投入足夠資源以掌握這些機會。過去 12 個月的利潤率（trailing 12-month margin）——我們認為這是評估各事業部表現的最佳方式——在 2023 年提升 180 個基點至 46.1%。

In our Mobility division, revenue increased 9% year-over-year. The dealer segment marked its fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth while manufacturing and financials and other continued to deliver solid results. Dealer revenue increased 14% year-over-year, driven by the continued benefit of price realization within the last year and new store growth, particularly in CARFAX for Life as well as the addition of Market Scan. Manufacturing grew 2% year-over-year, driven by Planning Solutions and Marketing Solutions. Financials & Other increased 5% as the business line benefited from strong underwriting volumes and price increases.

在移動（Mobility）事業部，營收年增 9%。經銷商（dealer）業務連續第四季達成雙位數成長，而製造（manufacturing）以及金融與其他（financials and other）也持續交出穩健成果。經銷商營收年增 14%，主要受惠於過去一年價格落實（price realization）的持續效益與新門市成長，特別是在 CARFAX for Life，以及納入 Market Scan 的貢獻。製造成長年增 2%，由規劃解決方案（Planning Solutions）與行銷解決方案（Marketing Solutions）所帶動。金融與其他成長 5%，受惠於強勁的承保量（underwriting volumes）與價格上調。

Adjusted expenses increased 10%, driven primarily by higher compensation due to the benefits alignment already mentioned and also due in part to higher commissions related to revenue outperformance in our OEM and dealer businesses. We also incurred some inorganic expense growth on the Market Scan acquisition. In aggregate, these drivers resulted in an 8% increase in adjusted operating profit and 30 basis points of operating margin contraction year-over-year in the fourth quarter. For full year 2023, margins contracted 20 basis points to 38.8%.

調整後費用成長 10%，主要由較高的薪酬所驅動，原因包括前述的福利對齊（benefits alignment），以及部分來自 OEM 與經銷商業務營收優於預期所帶動的較高佣金。我們也因 Market Scan 併購而產生部分非有機的費用成長。整體而言，這些因素使調整後營業利益成長 8%，且第四季營業利益率年減 30 個基點。2023 年全年，利潤率收縮 20 個基點至 38.8%。

Now turning to S&P Dow Jones Indices. Revenue increased 5% primarily due to strong growth in Exchange-Traded Derivatives revenue and new business activities within Data & Custom Subscriptions. Revenue associated with Asset-Linked Fees were relatively flat in the fourth quarter. This was driven by higher ETF AUM, which benefits from both market appreciation and net inflows, leading to higher ETF fees and declines in OTC products.

接著談 S&P 道瓊指數（S&P Dow Jones Indices）。營收成長 5%，主要由交易所交易衍生品（Exchange-Traded Derivatives）營收的強勁成長，以及資料與客製化訂閱（Data & Custom Subscriptions）中新業務活動所帶動。與資產連結費用（Asset-Linked Fees）相關的營收在第四季相對持平。這主要是因 ETF 資產管理規模（AUM）增加（受惠於市場上漲與淨流入），帶動 ETF 費用上升，同時 OTC 產品下滑所致。

Exchange-Traded Derivatives revenue grew 22%, primarily driven by strong volumes in SPACs and fixed products and strong price realization. Data & Custom Subscriptions increased 4% year-over-year, driven by continued strength in end-of-day contract growth. During the quarter, expenses decreased 6% year-over-year, primarily driven by lower outside services and incentive expenses. Operating profit in Indices increased 11% and the operating margin increased 390 basis points to 66.1%. For the full year 2023, margins expanded 50 basis points to 68.9%.

交易所交易衍生品（ETD）收入成長22%，主要受SPAC與固定收益產品的強勁成交量以及良好的價格實現所帶動。資料與客製化訂閱（Data & Custom Subscriptions）年增4%，動能來自期末（end-of-day）合約數持續成長。本季費用年減6%，主要因外部服務與獎勵費用降低。指數（Indices）業務的營業利益成長11%，營業利益率提升390個基點至66.1%。2023全年，利潤率擴張50個基點至68.9%。

As we reflect on 2023 as a whole, I'm incredibly proud about the many things we're able to accomplish. We returned more than 100% of adjusted free cash flow to shareholders. We also continued to make the right investments in our strategy, allocating approximately $140 million to the enterprise initiatives that we have discussed with you. And we are encouraged by the fact that approximately 10% of the company's revenue growth came from those initiatives in 2023.

回顧2023年整體表現，我對我們能完成的許多成果感到非常自豪。我們將超過100%的調整後自由現金流回饋給股東。我們也持續在策略上做出正確投資，將約1.4億美元配置於我們先前與各位討論過的企業級計畫（enterprise initiatives）。同時，我們也受到鼓舞，因為2023年公司約10%的營收成長來自這些計畫。

On an inorganic basis, we executed a disciplined M&A strategy with tactical acquisitions immediately adding value to the enterprise. The optimization of our capital and liquidity structure completed earlier in the year provided $750 million of capital. Due to the prudent and strategic application of rate swaps, we're able to execute the debt issuance in a rising rate environment while avoiding an increase in our average cost of capital.

在非有機成長方面，我們執行了嚴謹的併購（M&A）策略，透過戰術性收購立即為企業帶來價值。年初完成的資本與流動性結構最佳化提供了7.5億美元資本。由於審慎且具策略性地運用利率交換（rate swaps），我們得以在升息環境下完成發債，同時避免平均資本成本上升。

With a team that can deliver impressive accomplishments like these in 2023, I'm confident this will continue under the leadership of the future CFO of S&P Global. Now I'll turn it back to Doug to cover the 2024 outlook.

有這樣一支能在2023年交出上述亮眼成果的團隊，我有信心在S&P Global未來CFO的領導下，這樣的表現將會延續。接下來我把時間交還給Doug，說明2024年的展望。

Thank you, Ewout. We're updating our outlook to reflect our economists' view of the most important economic and market factors that will impact 2024. While this isn't meant to be an exhaustive list, these are some of the key factors we'll be tracking this year.

謝謝你，Ewout。我們正在更新展望，以反映我們經濟學家對將影響2024年之最重要經濟與市場因素的看法。這並非完整清單，但以下是我們今年將追蹤的一些關鍵因素。

We're currently expecting a soft landing scenario with a base case assumption that we avoid a global recession, though we expect geopolitical uncertainty to persist. We also expect energy transition and higher interest rates to remain factors.

我們目前預期將出現「軟著陸」情境，基準假設是可避免全球衰退，但我們預期地緣政治不確定性仍將持續。我們也預期能源轉型與較高利率仍將是影響因素。

For the equity markets, we expect the secular tailwind that flows from active to passive management to continue, though changes to market volatility can impact our ETD business in Indices and fluctuations in asset prices will have a lagged but potentially meaningful impact on our Asset-Linked Fees revenue.

就股票市場而言，我們預期由主動管理轉向被動管理所帶來的結構性順風將持續；不過，市場波動度的變化可能影響我們在指數業務中的ETD業務，而資產價格的波動將以滯後方式、但可能具實質影響地影響我們的資產連結費用（Asset-Linked Fees）收入。

Early signs in 2024 indicate market optimism with the market currently pricing in multiple rate cuts in 2024. The timing of these potential cuts is unpredictable. But we expect the issuance environment to be stronger in the first half of the year than the back half. We expect continued focus on energy transition in the commodity markets with volatility in the evolving regulatory landscape having the potential to impact our results this year.

2024年初的跡象顯示市場偏向樂觀，目前市場已反映2024年將有多次降息。這些潛在降息的時點難以預測。但我們預期上半年發行環境將強於下半年。我們也預期商品市場將持續聚焦能源轉型，而不斷演變的監管環境所帶來的波動，可能在今年影響我們的業績。

Our financial guidance assumes global GDP growth of 2.8%, U.S. inflation of 2.4% and an average price for Brent crude of $83 per barrel. We're also forecasting billed issuance growth in the range of 3% to 7% in 2024 with stronger growth expected in the first half. While we've included a market issuance forecast in the past, we will only report on billed issuance going forward when discussing our outlook for our financial performance as it historically has been a better indicator of our revenue growth and aligns with our monthly disclosures.

我們的財務指引假設全球GDP成長2.8%、美國通膨2.4%，以及布蘭特原油平均價格為每桶83美元。我們亦預測2024年計費發行量（billed issuance）成長介於3%至7%，且預期上半年成長較強。過去我們曾納入市場發行量預測，但未來在討論財務表現展望時，我們將僅報告計費發行量，因為歷史上它更能指示我們的營收成長，並且與我們的每月揭露一致。

Turning to our most recent refinancing study. When we compare these refinancing walls to last year's study, we see that current year maturities, meaning 2024 maturities now, compared to 2023 maturities measured at this time last year are more than 10% higher than they were at this point last year. The maturities expected over the next 2- and 3-year periods are more than 12% higher. While we can't be certain how the higher rate environment will impact these maturities or issuers' likelihood to delever, we're confident that this puts us in a strong position to achieve the Ratings revenue targets we're outlining today for 2024.

接著談我們最新的再融資研究。將這些再融資到期高峰（refinancing walls）與去年的研究相比，我們看到當年度到期（也就是目前的2024年到期）相較於去年此時所衡量的2023年到期，高出逾10%。未來2年與3年期間預期到期的規模則高出逾12%。雖然我們無法確定較高利率環境將如何影響這些到期情況或發行人去槓桿的可能性，但我們有信心，這使我們處於有利位置，以達成我們今天為2024年所提出的評等（Ratings）營收目標。

Now turning to our initial guidance for 2024. This slide illustrates our initial guidance for GAAP results. For adjusted guidance, we're expecting revenue growth in the range of 5.5% to 7.5%, driven by strong growth in all 5 divisions. We expect organic revenue growth, excluding the impact of 2023 divestitures, in the range of 7% to 9%. We expect to deliver at least 100 basis points of adjusted operating margin expansion in 2024. This will require us to maintain discipline around expenses and productivity while ensuring that we are making the necessary investments to drive growth and innovation in vital strategic areas like generative AI, sustainability, energy transition and private markets.

現在談我們對2024年的初步指引。本頁展示我們對GAAP結果的初步指引。就調整後指引而言，我們預期營收成長介於5.5%至7.5%，由五大事業部皆呈現強勁成長所帶動。我們預期在排除2023年資產處分（divestitures）影響後的有機營收成長介於7%至9%。我們預期2024年調整後營業利益率至少擴張100個基點。這將要求我們在費用與生產力方面維持紀律，同時確保在生成式AI、永續、能源轉型與私募市場等關鍵策略領域進行必要投資，以推動成長與創新。

We expect to deliver adjusted EPS for the full year in the range of $13.75 to $14, which represents double-digit growth at the midpoint. It's important to note that our expected adjusted tax rate is nearly 2 percentage points higher in 2024 than in 2023. If our tax rate were to remain unchanged from 2023, we would expect adjusted EPS growth approximately 2 to 3 percentage points higher, consistent with the low to mid-teens growth rate we pointed to for 2025/2026 at our Investor Day.

我們預期全年調整後EPS介於13.75至14美元，中位數代表雙位數成長。需要注意的是，我們預期2024年的調整後有效稅率較2023年高出近2個百分點。若稅率維持與2023年相同，我們預期調整後EPS成長將再高約2至3個百分點，與我們在投資人日（Investor Day）對2025/2026所指出的低至中十位數成長率一致。

As you saw in our supplemental materials earlier this morning, we also expect adjusted free cash flow, excluding certain items, of approximately $4.4 billion. We expect growth in adjusted free cash flow to be driven primarily by strong growth in revenue and profitability, though free cash flow growth will be tempered somewhat by the timing of working capital items and the full year impact of the $750 million debt offering completed in the third quarter of 2023.

如同各位今天稍早在我們的補充資料中所見，我們也預期在排除特定項目後的調整後自由現金流約為44億美元。我們預期調整後自由現金流的成長主要由營收與獲利能力的強勁成長所帶動，但自由現金流成長將在一定程度上受到營運資金項目時點，以及2023年第三季完成的7.5億美元發債之全年影響所抑制。

With the geopolitical, macroeconomic and market risk and opportunities we've discussed on this call, we expect that the financial outlook we've provided today likely has more upside risk than downside. And you can count on our focus, determination and discipline over the coming year.

鑑於我們在本次電話會議中討論的地緣政治、總體經濟與市場風險與機會，我們預期今天提供的財務展望，上行風險可能大於下行風險。未來一年，各位也可以期待我們持續保持專注、決心與紀律。

Our outlook for 2024 calls for further acceleration in revenue growth compared to 2023 and continued margin expansion, even though we will no longer have the benefit of the vast majority of our cost synergy actions going forward. Our financial outlook for 2024 illustrates our continued progress toward the targets we outlined at our Investor Day just over a year ago. And we remain committed to those targets.

我們對2024年的展望預期，相較2023年營收成長將進一步加速，且利潤率持續擴張，儘管未來我們將不再享有絕大多數成本綜效措施所帶來的效益。我們對2024年的財務展望顯示，我們持續朝著一年多前在投資人日所提出的目標邁進，我們也仍致力於達成這些目標。

Moving to our division outlook. For Market Intelligence, we expect revenue growth in the range of 6% to 7.5% with expected growth to be slightly higher in the back half than in the first half of the year. We expect adjusted operating margins in the range of 33.5% to 34.5% as we continue to invest in key growth initiatives while maintaining rigorous discipline around expenses.

接著看各事業部展望。就市場情報（Market Intelligence）而言，我們預期營收成長介於6%至7.5%，且預期下半年成長將略高於上半年。隨著我們持續投資於關鍵成長計畫，同時在費用方面維持嚴格紀律，我們預期調整後營業利益率介於33.5%至34.5%。

For Ratings, we expect revenue growth in the range of 6% to 8%, driven by billed issuance growth of 3% to 7%. We expect revenue growth rates to be stronger in the first half of the year than the second half as comparisons are easier in the first half and we expect some level of pull-forward, given the uncertainty around the timing of any potential rate actions by central banks. We expect adjusted operating margins in the range of 57.5% to 58.5%.

就評等（Ratings）而言，我們預期營收成長介於6%至8%，由計費發行量成長3%至7%所帶動。由於上半年比較基期較容易，且考量到央行任何潛在利率行動時點的不確定性可能帶來一定程度的提前發行（pull-forward），我們預期上半年營收成長率將強於下半年。我們預期調整後營業利益率介於57.5%至58.5%。

For Commodity Insights, we expect revenue growth in the range of 8% to 9.5% and adjusted operating margins of 46.5% to 47.5%. For Mobility, we expect revenue growth in the range of 8.5% to 10% and adjusted operating margins of 39% to 40%. Lastly, for S&P Dow Jones Indices, we expect revenue growth in the range of 7% to 9% and adjusted operating margins in the range of 68.5% to 69.5%. As you saw in the press release earlier this morning, our Board has authorized a repurchase of shares totaling up to $2.4 billion, which we expect to execute throughout the year.

就大宗商品洞察（Commodity Insights）而言，我們預期營收成長介於8%至9.5%，調整後營業利益率介於46.5%至47.5%。就移動出行（Mobility）而言，我們預期營收成長介於8.5%至10%，調整後營業利益率介於39%至40%。最後，就S&P道瓊指數（S&P Dow Jones Indices）而言，我們預期營收成長介於7%至9%，調整後營業利益率介於68.5%至69.5%。如同各位今天稍早在新聞稿中所見，我們董事會已授權最多24億美元的股票回購，我們預期將於全年執行。

And with that, I'd like to invite Adam Kansler, President of S&P Global Market Intelligence; and Martina Cheung, President of S&P Global Ratings and Executive Lead for Sustainable1, to join us. And I will turn the call back over to Mark for your questions.

接下來，我想邀請S&P Global Market Intelligence總裁Adam Kansler，以及S&P Global Ratings總裁暨Sustainable1永續業務執行負責人Martina Cheung加入我們。接著我會把電話會議交回給Mark，進行各位的提問。

Thank you, Doug. (Operator Instructions) Operator, we will now take our first question.

謝謝你，Doug。（接線生指示）接線生，我們現在開始進行第一個問題。

Our first question comes from Faiza Alwy with Deutsche Bank.

我們的第一個問題來自德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的 Faiza Alwy。

So I wanted to start with a big-picture question on Ratings, take advantage of Martina on the call. Maybe you can talk a little bit about the drivers behind the Ratings top line outlook. Doug mentioned 3% to 7% billed issuance growth. But give us a bit more color around transaction versus non-transaction growth and the various components, whether it's corporate, structured. You mentioned greater private assessment. So just a bit more color around what's underlying the revenue outlook.

我想先從評級（Ratings）的宏觀問題開始，趁 Martina 也在線上。也許你可以談談推動評級業務營收（top line）展望的因素。Doug 提到已開票發行量（billed issuance）成長 3% 到 7%。但能否再多提供一些交易型（transaction）與非交易型（non-transaction）成長，以及各個組成部分（不論是企業、結構性產品）的細節？你也提到更多的私募評估（private assessment）。所以想請你再多說明一下，營收展望背後的驅動因素。

Thanks very much for the question. So as Doug mentioned in his remarks, we do expect a stronger first half of this year, 2024, compared to the back half of the year. And I'll break it down a little bit. First, on the transaction revenue and our billed issuance estimate in the 3% to 7%, we're expecting to see continued refinancing activity that we saw build up in the back half of last year with high-yield and bank loans. And we saw that consistent in January. So we would expect to see that continue throughout the first half of this year.

非常感謝這個問題。如 Doug 在致詞中提到的，我們確實預期今年 2024 年上半年會比下半年更強。我稍微拆解說明一下。首先，在交易型營收與我們對已開票發行量 3% 到 7% 的估計方面，我們預期會看到延續去年下半年逐步升溫的再融資活動，主要來自高收益債（high-yield）與銀行貸款（bank loans）。而我們在 1 月也看到這樣的一致性。因此，我們預期這種趨勢會在今年上半年持續。

We would also expect to see some investment grade, although not as robust as last year. And part of that is just because so many investment-grade issuers tapped the market last year. Another potential factor there is the fact that we would see some investment-grade issuers being able to wait until the rates come down.

我們也預期會有一些投資級（investment grade）發行，雖然不會像去年那麼強勁。部分原因只是因為去年有非常多投資級發行人已經進入市場發行。另一個可能因素是，我們可能會看到一些投資級發行人能夠等到利率下降之後再發行。

Now some of the factors driving first half versus the second half, I would say anecdotally, we're hearing that issuers are looking to come to market to take advantage of strong investor appetite to lock in rates once they're higher and before the rates come down and ahead of potential volatility in the back half of the year.

至於推動上半年相對下半年的一些因素，我想從市場傳聞（anecdotally）來說，我們聽到發行人希望趁著投資人需求強勁時進入市場，在利率仍偏高、且在利率下行之前鎖定利率，同時也在下半年可能出現波動之前先行發行。

On transaction revenue, we would actually expect to see stronger frequent issuer program issuance this year than we saw last year. You won't see that in our billed issuance estimate, for example. And we would also expect to see continued strong performance in our surveillance book across CRISIL, our royalty and other products such as RES, or Ratings Evaluation Service.

在交易型營收方面，我們其實預期今年的常態發行人計畫（frequent issuer program）發行量會比去年更強。舉例來說，你不會在我們的已開票發行量估計中看到這一點。另外，我們也預期在我們的監測（surveillance）業務組合上會持續有強勁表現，涵蓋 CRISIL、我們的權利金（royalty）以及其他產品，例如 RES（Ratings Evaluation Service，評級評估服務）。

Overall though, as Doug said, we do expect stronger first half compared to second half. All of these factors that we take into consideration, including pace and timing of rate cuts, volatility, et cetera, these are all baked into our overall outlook. It is early in the year. And we will definitely seek to become more precise as we go throughout the year. But that's, I think, a good summary of where we're at.

不過整體而言，如 Doug 所說，我們確實預期上半年會比下半年更強。我們納入考量的所有因素，包括降息的速度與時點、波動性等等，都已反映在我們的整體展望中。現在仍是年初，我們也會在全年推進的過程中，努力讓預測更精準。但我認為這大致總結了我們目前的看法。

Our next question comes from Manav Patnaik with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊（Barclays）的 Manav Patnaik。

I just wanted to touch on the revenue synergies. You said I think it was $152 million annualized exiting the year. I think that's a number higher than what we would have thought of. I was just hoping you could give us some color on where -- what kind of areas those are coming from, what you've kind of baked into 2024 also perhaps.

我想簡單談一下營收協同效益（revenue synergies）。你說我記得是年底退出時（exiting the year）年化（annualized）達到 1.52 億美元。我覺得這個數字高於我們原先的預期。想請你多分享一些細節：這些協同主要來自哪些領域？以及你們在 2024 年的規劃中大概也納入了哪些？

Thank you, Manav. This is Doug. Well, we're really excited about what we've been able to achieve with the merger. And you've heard us talk about the power of the merger, the capital return that we had, the accretion to EPS, the cost synergies, which we now have delivered $619 million. And going forward, we're going to keep talking about the revenue synergies. When we look at the revenue synergies, they started off traditionally with cross-sell, cross-sell within divisions.

謝謝你，Manav。我是 Doug。嗯，我們對併購後能達成的成果感到非常振奮。你也聽過我們談到併購的力量、我們進行的資本回饋（capital return）、對每股盈餘（EPS）的增益（accretion）、以及成本協同（cost synergies），目前我們已交付 6.19 億美元。展望未來，我們會持續談營收協同效益。當我們看營收協同時，最初傳統上是從交叉銷售（cross-sell）開始，也就是在各事業部內進行交叉銷售。

This is where we were selling Commodity Insights products from the Platts customers to the IHS Markit customers and vice versa, same in the Market Intelligence business, where we're selling financial services products to corporate customers for Market Intelligence. But now we're starting to deliver the new products as well. And a combination of both of these has allowed us to be ahead of the schedule. We're very excited about the new products coming out.

這包括我們把 Commodity Insights 的產品從 Platts 客戶賣給 IHS Markit 客戶，反之亦然；在 Market Intelligence 業務也是一樣，我們把金融服務產品賣給 Market Intelligence 的企業客戶。但現在我們也開始交付新產品。這兩者的組合讓我們能夠超前進度。我們對即將推出的新產品感到非常興奮。

Let me give you one example from the Commodity Insights division, something called Platts Connect. Platts Connect is a product that took the platform of Platts Dimensions Pro and took the IHS Markit Connect platform, we put them together. We now have a very unique, single, holistic platform for prices, for research, for forecasting. But let me hand it over to Adam since he's on the call, and he can give us some more color for Market Intelligence.

我舉 Commodity Insights 事業部的一個例子：一個叫做 Platts Connect 的產品。Platts Connect 是把 Platts Dimensions Pro 的平台與 IHS Markit Connect 平台結合在一起。我們現在擁有一個非常獨特、單一且整合的平台，涵蓋價格、研究與預測。不過我把時間交給也在線上的 Adam，請他就 Market Intelligence 再補充一些細節。

Great. Thanks, Doug. The revenue synergy is obviously one of the most exciting parts of the combination of businesses. As Doug mentioned, the early successes have been in going to our customers with combined product capabilities that strengthen what we were already providing to those customers. We've seen outsized performance there even against our own expectations.

很好，謝謝 Doug。營收協同顯然是這次業務結合中最令人興奮的部分之一。如 Doug 所提到的，早期的成功主要在於我們帶著整合後的產品能力去服務客戶，強化我們原本就提供給這些客戶的價值。我們在這方面的表現甚至超出我們自己的預期。

What's really exciting as we get now into the years where we've landed those early merger synergies is the launch of new products. Doug mentioned a few. Over the course of 2023, we launched 7 new products just within Market Intelligence. We have 14 new products set to come to market across 2024. These will increasingly become part of what we're offering out to customers.

當我們進入這些已落地（landed）早期併購協同效益的年度後，更令人興奮的是新產品的推出。Doug 提到了一些。在 2023 年期間，我們僅在 Market Intelligence 內就推出了 7 個新產品。我們也規劃在 2024 年推出 14 個新產品進入市場。這些將會愈來愈成為我們對客戶提供的核心內容。

Whether it's just putting our bond pricing in together with our credit analytics capability, looking at our economics and country risk data across our Desktop, incorporating sustainability data into our private markets portfolio management capabilities, these are all exciting areas that will continue to add to the growth of the business. You'll also see us announce some increasing generative AI capabilities across broader datasets of the combined businesses. I'm sure we'll talk a little bit more about that later on the call.

不論是把我們的債券定價（bond pricing）與信用分析（credit analytics）能力結合，或是在我們的 Desktop 上整合經濟與國家風險（economics and country risk）資料，或是把永續（sustainability）資料納入我們的私募市場（private markets）投資組合管理能力，這些都是令人興奮的領域，將持續推動業務成長。你也會看到我們宣布在更廣泛的整合資料集上，推出更多生成式 AI（generative AI）能力。我相信我們稍後在電話會議中會再多談一些。

Our next question comes from Toni Kaplan with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的 Toni Kaplan。

This is Greg Parrish on for Toni. Adam, just want to go back to you, talk about Market Intelligence, 6% to 7.5% revenue growth guide, similar to last year. Is, a, selling environment, has that improved at all? Or is that still a bit of a headwind? And then on the capital markets piece of the business, I think some of the Ipreo assets seeing some increased activity to start the year. So is there upside from that? Or are you still a little bit cautious?

我是代 Toni 提問的 Greg Parrish。Adam，我想回到你這邊談談 Market Intelligence。你們給的營收成長指引是 6% 到 7.5%，和去年差不多。第一，銷售環境是否有任何改善？還是仍然有些逆風？第二，關於業務中的資本市場（capital markets）部分，我認為部分 Ipreo 資產在年初看到活動增加。所以這部分是否有上行空間？還是你們仍然比較謹慎？

Okay. Thank you for the call. We're very optimistic about continued growth in the business. And you've seen that progression from '22 to '23 and you see our guidance for 2024. Our end markets have had a pretty challenged period through '22 and '23, right? You've seen 30-plus percent declines in M&A activity, 34% decline in private equity investment activity. But even through that period, we've been able to deliver the solutions that our customers want. I think that will continue into '24. We do see some early activity in capital markets. But I think the way the full year will play out is yet to be seen.

好的，謝謝這通電話。我們對業務持續成長非常樂觀。你也看到從 2022 到 2023 的進展，以及我們對 2024 的指引。我們的終端市場在 2022 與 2023 經歷了相當具挑戰性的期間，對吧？你看到併購（M&A）活動下滑超過 30%，私募股權（private equity）投資活動下滑 34%。但即便在那段期間，我們仍能交付客戶想要的解決方案。我認為這會延續到 2024。我們確實在資本市場看到一些早期活動，但全年最終會如何發展仍有待觀察。

For us, going into the first quarter, we see more challenging comps. So we'll see a little bit slower start to year than we'll see towards the back half of the year. I am cautiously optimistic that as markets stabilize, that presents opportunity for us. But we want to be careful because our largest customer sets continue to be under pressure. You see that in the news every day. As we go into the beginning part of this year, we want to see how that ultimately plays out. But we feel pretty good about the guidance range we've put out.

對我們而言，進入第一季時，我們面臨較具挑戰性的比較基期（comps）。因此年初的起步會比下半年慢一些。我審慎樂觀地認為，隨著市場趨於穩定，這會為我們帶來機會。但我們也希望保持謹慎，因為我們最大的客戶群仍持續承受壓力，你每天在新聞上都看得到。進入今年初期，我們想先觀察這些情況最終如何發展。不過我們對目前提出的指引區間感覺相當不錯。

Our next question comes from Andrew Nicholas with William Blair.

我們的下一個問題來自 William Blair 的 Andrew Nicholas。

This is Tom on for Andrew. I wanted to ask about ChatIQ. You mentioned you started piloting that in December. I was wondering what kind of customer feedback you're getting so far and what kind of benefits you can expect. Can it help increase pricing on the Cap IQ platform or any other benefits you're seeing there?

我是代 Andrew 提問的 Tom。我想問一下 ChatIQ。你提到你們在 12 月開始試點（piloting）。我想知道目前收到的客戶回饋如何，以及你們預期能帶來哪些效益。它是否能協助提高 Cap IQ 平台的定價，或你們在這方面看到其他效益？

Tom, thanks for the question. We're very excited about the early responses on ChatIQ. That's a tool that lets our customers get into our Desktop and get back actionable insights, lets them actually click through directly down to the source documents on what's one of the most robust datasets available to financial markets and corporate participants in the world. ChatIQ, very exciting, we are out with a few pilot customers. We'll start to release that out more broadly to our customer set over the course of 2024.

Tom，謝謝你的問題。我們對 ChatIQ 的早期回應感到非常興奮。這是一個工具，讓客戶可以進入我們的 Desktop，並獲得可採取行動的洞見（actionable insights）；也讓他們能直接點擊追溯到原始文件（source documents），這些文件來自全球金融市場與企業參與者可取得的最強大資料集之一。ChatIQ 非常令人振奮，我們目前已與少數試點客戶上線。我們會在 2024 年期間逐步更廣泛地向客戶群推出。

But it's also not the only thing that we're doing with generative AI. You may have seen a press release in the last couple of days. We've actually launched now widely available to customers the ability to use generative AI to search in the S&P Global Marketplace, which is the place where you can go and look at all the datasets available across all of S&P Global. We're using generative AI to allow people to query into those datasets to get broader understanding of what's actually available through our company. We're pretty excited about that. And early responses have been positive.

但這也不是我們在生成式 AI 上所做的唯一事情。你可能在過去幾天看到一則新聞稿。我們其實已經正式推出並廣泛提供給客戶：可使用生成式 AI 在 S&P Global Marketplace 中進行搜尋；那是你可以前往查看 S&P Global 全部可用資料集的地方。我們運用生成式 AI，讓人們能對這些資料集提出查詢，以更全面地了解我們公司實際提供哪些內容。我們對此非常興奮，而早期回饋也相當正面。

You'll also see releases from us during the year, things we're calling RegGPT, some other tools around our Ratings-related data that we deliver through Market Intelligence to allow our customers to probe into that data and get quick responses that help increase the speed within their own workflows. You'll continue to see this across the course of 2024. We're very focused on making sure we release things that are actually useful to our customers, enhance the value proposition of what we're delivering to them and ultimately embed our solutions more deeply into their workflows.

你也會在今年看到我們發布一些內容，我們稱之為 RegGPT，以及其他一些圍繞我們評級相關資料的工具；我們透過 Market Intelligence 交付這些工具，讓客戶能深入探查該資料並快速取得回覆，進而提升其自身工作流程中的速度。你會在 2024 年持續看到這些推出。我們非常專注於確保我們發布的內容確實對客戶有用，能強化我們交付給他們的價值主張，並最終讓我們的解決方案更深度地嵌入他們的工作流程。

Our next question comes from Andrew Steinerman with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通（JPMorgan）的 Andrew Steinerman。

This is Alex Hess on for Andrew Steinerman. I was hoping you guys could walk us through a little bit of the incremental margin outlooks embedded in your guide, especially for Market Intelligence, Commodity Insights, sort of -- and maybe Mobility, just sort of helpful to know sort of in those higher subscription businesses, what the puts and takes are on expenses and how we should see that flowing through to operating income.

我是代替 Andrew Steinerman 的 Alex Hess。我希望你們能帶我們稍微梳理一下你們指引中所隱含的增量利潤率展望，特別是針對 Market Intelligence、Commodity Insights，可能還有 Mobility——在這些較高訂閱占比的業務中，費用端有哪些拉動與抵消因素，以及我們應該如何看待這些因素如何流入營業利益，會很有幫助。

Thanks, Alex. This is Doug. Let me start by saying that we always start our year with looking at how we're going to be able to grow our margins. We always build a budget that begins with top line growth. And we want to make sure that we can build our business through investment for innovation but also continue to deliver margin expansion. So you asked about each of the divisions. And each of the divisions has different characteristics for how we're moving forward. We have technology and productivity plans in place. But let me start with a couple of the divisions and then hand it over to Adam.

謝謝你，Alex。我是 Doug。我先說明，我們每年一開始都會檢視要如何提升利潤率。我們一向以營收成長為起點來編列預算。我們希望確保能透過對創新投資來打造業務，同時也持續交付利潤率擴張。你問到各個事業部，而各事業部在推進方式上各有不同特性。我們已經有技術與生產力計畫在推動。不過我先從其中幾個事業部談起，然後再交給 Adam。

So within the Commodity Insights division, we're looking at, as you saw, 8% growth to 9.5% growth with a margin expansion in the 46.5% to 47.5% range. We have growth in that area, in particular in energy transition products. We see high demand coming for new sorts of products that relate to carbon, to carbon intensity, to carbon markets, to different types of metals which are going to be important for the energy transition. So we see a lot of growth in the area coming from energy transition on top of what are the regular markets there. We do have some investments taking place in the Commodity Insights division both for some regional expansion as well as some new products.

在 Commodity Insights 事業部方面，正如你所看到的，我們預期成長 8% 到 9.5%，利潤率擴張落在 46.5% 到 47.5% 的區間。我們在該領域的成長，特別來自能源轉型產品。我們看到對新型產品的高需求正在到來，這些產品與碳、碳強度、碳市場，以及對能源轉型至關重要的不同類型金屬相關。因此，除了既有市場之外，我們看到能源轉型將帶來大量成長。我們也正在 Commodity Insights 事業部進行一些投資，包括區域擴張以及一些新產品。

When it comes to Mobility, we're making some investments in some new products in Mobility so that we will be able to grow our top line. As you see, we have an 8.5% to 10% revenue guide and a 39% to 40% margin guide. But we always operate all of our businesses beginning with top line with discipline to deliver growth. Just to mention before I hand it over to Adam, as you know, we've delivered 1,200 basis points of margin expansion over the last 10 years. So it's something that's in our DNA. But let me hand it over to Adam.

至於 Mobility，我們正在投資一些新的 Mobility 產品，以便推動營收成長。如你所見，我們的營收指引為 8.5% 到 10%，利潤率指引為 39% 到 40%。但我們一向以營收為起點、以紀律來經營所有業務以交付成長。在交給 Adam 之前補充一下，如你所知，過去 10 年我們已交付 1,200 個基點的利潤率擴張，所以這已經融入我們的 DNA。不過我把時間交給 Adam。

Sure. Just commenting briefly on margins within Market Intelligence. We do expect to continue to see expansion as we go into 2024. It's important for us to keep balancing the need for continued efficiency, looking for where we can operate more effectively and continue to drive margin expansion. We expect to do that on course to the levels that we laid out in the 2022 Investor Day but also balancing that with making the right investments to drive the increased top line growth that we also expect to deliver as we get towards those target dates that we laid out in the Investor Day as well.

好的。簡要談一下 Market Intelligence 的利潤率。我們確實預期在進入 2024 年時仍會持續擴張。對我們而言，重要的是持續在效率需求之間取得平衡，尋找我們能更有效運作之處，並持續推動利潤率擴張。我們預期會沿著 2022 年投資人日所提出的水準推進，同時也要在此與做出正確投資之間取得平衡，以推動我們預期將交付的更高營收成長，並在接近投資人日所提出的目標日期時達成。

Our next question comes from Alex Kramm with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀（UBS）的 Alex Kramm。

Just, I guess, continuing that last point, Adam, that you made. When I look at the revenue targets that you laid out at the Investor Day across the company, I think you're making good progress everywhere. But in Market Intelligence, I think it appears that if it's a steady path with the most behind.

我想延續你剛才那點，Adam。當我看你們在投資人日提出的全公司營收目標時，我認為你們在各處都取得不錯進展。但在 Market Intelligence 方面，我覺得看起來如果是穩定的路徑，那目前落後最多。

So maybe just coming back to the comments you made earlier in terms of the environment, is it the environment that needs to improve? Is it the revenue synergies that need to click more? Or what needs to happen to get to that 7% to 9% in 2025? Yes, and what are the biggest factors that get you there? And what's your confidence level, sorry?

所以回到你先前對環境的評論，是需要環境改善嗎？是需要營收協同效應更到位嗎？或是要發生什麼，才能在 2025 年達到 7% 到 9%？是的，哪些是讓你們達成的最大因素？以及抱歉，你們的信心程度如何？

Thanks, Alex. Confidence level, high. We set those targets for 2025/2026. I think we're well on track to get there. Even in this current year, while coming in behind our goal, we're still right near the very bottom of that 7% to 9% growth range, right? We delivered a 6.9-or-so percent year. You've seen in our guidance, like we'll continue to push towards that. You identified actually a couple of the important factors.

謝謝你，Alex。信心程度：高。我們為 2025/2026 設定了那些目標。我認為我們很在軌道上能達成。即使在今年，在低於我們目標的情況下，我們仍然非常接近 7% 到 9% 成長區間的最底部，對吧？我們交付了大約 6.9% 的年度成長。你也在我們的指引中看到，我們會持續朝那個方向推進。你其實點出了幾個重要因素。

That synergy growth will continue to build. And we always said we'd start to see the real impact of that in years 3 through 5. And that's the period that we're just starting to enter. So you will see that continue to be a factor. The second biggest factor is we've gone through in 2022 and 2023 one of the toughest macro environments that we've seen, particularly for our customers over the last, certainly, 5 to 10 years.

協同帶來的成長會持續累積。我們一直說會在第 3 到第 5 年開始看到真正的影響，而我們正要進入那個期間。因此你會看到這仍會是一個因素。第二個最大因素是，我們在 2022 與 2023 年經歷了我們所見過最艱難的總體環境之一，特別是對我們的客戶而言，這在過去 5 到 10 年中確實相當少見。

So as that macro environment improves, especially conditions for that customer set improves for us, it also sets us up to continue to accelerate towards those growth levels. Even through that challenging period, as I mentioned, we're delivering actually pretty close to that range and on a pretty straight line path into it and have pretty high confidence that we'll get there.

因此，隨著總體環境改善，尤其是我們這一客群的狀況改善，也會讓我們得以持續加速朝那些成長水準前進。即便在那段具挑戰的期間，如我所提，我們實際上交付得相當接近該區間，並且以相當直線的路徑走向該區間；我們對能達成也有相當高的信心。

Our next question comes from Ashish Sabadra with RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Ashish Sabadra。

I just wanted to focus or drill down further on the index business. There was a mention of declines in OTC products. I was wondering if you could provide some color on that front. And then as we get into 2024, I was wondering if you could provide some color on what are your assumptions around AUM growth. And then fees, which were a headwind this year, how should we think about those potentially becoming a tailwind in '24?

我想更聚焦、或更深入探討指數業務。你們提到 OTC 產品下滑。我想請你們就此提供一些說明。接著展望 2024 年，我也想請你們談談對 AUM 成長的假設。另外，費用今年是逆風，對於 2024 年我們應該如何看待它們可能轉為順風？

Ashish, this is Ewout. Thank you for giving me an opportunity to answer a question during my last call. Coming back to your point about OTC, obviously, if you look at AUM fees in the fourth quarter, you say, "Hey, that's strange. Why is it flat when markets are up so much?" And we see two underlying dynamics that go in opposite direction. So as we have always said, in AUM fees, there's many things that go there into the mix. There is mutual funds, there's OTCs and others.

Ashish，我是 Ewout。謝謝你讓我在我最後一通電話會議中有機會回答問題。回到你關於 OTC 的問題，顯然如果你看第四季的 AUM 費用，你會說：「欸，這很奇怪。市場漲了這麼多，為什麼它是持平的？」我們看到兩個相反方向的底層動態。如同我們一直說的，AUM 費用的組成有很多因素：有共同基金、有 OTC，還有其他。

Actually, if we zoom in on ETFs, it's up about 8% in terms of fees. And that is helped by market depreciation as well as very strong inflows that we have seen into the ETF area but offset by OTC volumes that were down period-over-period. OTC volumes can always be a bit lumpy quarter-to-quarter. So I wouldn't read too much into it. This can really change again the following quarter. So overall, I would say this is a normal trend that we are seeing here.

實際上，如果我們聚焦在 ETF，上升約 8%（以費用計）。這受市場升值以及我們在 ETF 領域看到的非常強勁資金流入所帶動，但被 OTC 交易量較前期下滑所抵消。OTC 交易量在季度之間本來就可能有些波動，所以我不會過度解讀。下一季可能又會改變。因此整體而言，我會說這是我們在此看到的正常趨勢。

With respect to the assumptions for 2024, first of all, the assumption is that AUM is up at mid-single-digit level; the ETD volumes, low single-digit increase; and then the subscription growth at a double-digit level for the index business for 2024. Those are the assumptions. Thank you, Ashish.

至於 2024 年的假設，首先，我們假設 AUM 以中個位數水準成長；ETD 交易量低個位數增加；然後指數業務在 2024 年的訂閱成長為雙位數水準。以上是這些假設。謝謝你，Ashish。

Our next question comes from Scott Wurtzel with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Scott Wurtzel。

Just moving back to the Ratings segment, and I'm thinking about the results and guidance here, sort of looking at that Slide 32 and seeing the decline in expected maturities for 2024. I was just wondering if you guys saw any pull-forward activity into the fourth quarter, given the decline in rates and tightening spreads that we saw and how that may have informed your outlook for 2024 here.

我想把話題拉回評級（Ratings）部門。我在看這裡的結果與指引，尤其是看第 32 張投影片，看到 2024 年預期到期量下滑。我想請問，鑑於我們看到利率下滑與利差收斂，你們是否在第四季看到任何提前發行（pull-forward）活動？以及這可能如何影響你們對 2024 年的展望？

Scott, thanks for the question. We did see some pull-forwards more for '24, a little bit of '25 into 2023, not just in Q4, I would say. I mean, I think the sort of the repricing and other refinancing activity started to pick up momentum in the back half overall. And we've certainly seen that continue into this year. But I would maybe take a step back and perhaps sort of characterize how we build our outlook for the year.

Scott，謝謝你的提問。我們確實看到一些需求提前釋放，更多是把原本屬於『24年的量提前，以及把一小部分『25年的量提前到2023年，不僅僅是在第四季。我是說，我認為整體來看，重新定價以及其他再融資活動在下半年開始加速並累積動能。我們也確實看到這個趨勢延續到今年。不過我可能會先退一步，從更宏觀的角度來描述我們如何建立今年的展望。

So absolutely, refinancing is very important. And as Doug mentioned in his remarks, the refinancing wall continues to grow nicely, which is a very healthy indicator for us. But we also look at a number of other factors, including the overall macro picture, whether it's GDP growth, pace and timing of interest rate cuts. We also look at opportunistic issuance. We know that's been historically very hard to predict. And that's become even more difficult in the last 2 years.

所以，毫無疑問，再融資非常重要。而且如Doug在發言中提到的，再融資到期壓力（refinancing wall）持續穩健增加，這對我們而言是非常健康的指標。但我們也會看許多其他因素，包括整體宏觀情勢，不論是GDP成長、降息的速度與時點。我們也會觀察機會型發行（opportunistic issuance）。我們知道這在歷史上一直很難預測，而在過去兩年更是變得更難。

And candidly, M&A, we don't have historic or heroic assumptions around M&A. As Adam mentioned earlier, it was down quite a bit last year. And while we're hearing a little bit of positive market sentiment, we need to see how that plays out throughout the course of the year. We also look at investor appetite, fund flows and how that could impact issuance across different asset classes. So for example, as I mentioned earlier, we would expect to see higher frequent issuer issuance this year than we did last year. And then we keep an eye on this throughout the course of the year, a lot of contacts with investors.

坦白說，對於併購（M&A），我們不會做出歷史上沒有依據或過度樂觀的假設。如Adam先前提到，去年併購活動下滑不少。雖然我們聽到一些正面的市場情緒，但仍需觀察它在全年如何發展。我們也會看投資人風險偏好、基金資金流向，以及這些因素如何影響不同資產類別的發行。舉例來說，如我先前提到的，我們預期今年常態發行人（frequent issuer）的發行量會高於去年。然後我們會在全年持續追蹤，並與投資人保持大量聯繫。

I think we did -- we increased our investor meeting frequency quite a bit last year, so we're between the 25,000, 30,000 range of meetings with investors. So a lot of work goes into building up the bottom-up. It's not just the refinancing piece of it, although, of course, that's a good long-term indicator for us. And then just to kind of recap or draw a line under it, as Doug said, we would expect slightly faster first half than second half. And as we go throughout the year, we can come back to you with greater precision.

我想我們去年確實大幅提高了與投資人會面的頻率，因此我們與投資人的會議數量大約在25,000到30,000場之間。建立自下而上的展望需要投入大量工作，不只是再融資這一塊，雖然那當然是對我們很好的長期指標。最後再簡單總結一下，如Doug所說，我們預期上半年會略快於下半年。隨著今年推進，我們也可以再回來提供更精準的看法。

Our next question comes from Jeff Silber with BMO Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自BMO Capital Markets的Jeff Silber。

In your prepared remarks, I think you had said you're constantly reviewing and optimizing your portfolio. Can we just kind of step back, maybe you can tell us what you're looking for, whether it's in tuck-in acquisitions or maybe more importantly, potential divestitures? Would it be possible to see a large divestiture in the future?

在你們事先準備的發言中，我記得你們提到會持續檢視並優化投資組合。我們能否先退一步，請你們談談你們在尋找什麼？不論是小型併購（tuck-in acquisitions），或更重要的是，潛在的資產剝離（divestitures）？未來是否有可能出現一筆大型的資產剝離？

Thank you, Jeff. As you know, we always apply a discipline to looking at our portfolio, looking at top line growth, looking at the margin expansion, also looking at how it fits across the portfolio. During the year last year, we didn't make a lot of noise about it, but we did shut down some very small products. We shut down 8,000 indices that were subpar, sub-sized across the businesses within Commodity Insights, Market Intelligence, some small products that we moved on. We also had a couple of small divestitures.

謝謝你，Jeff。如你所知，我們一向以紀律性的方式檢視投資組合：看營收成長（top line growth）、看利潤率擴張（margin expansion），也看它在整體組合中的契合度。去年一年，我們沒有大張旗鼓地宣傳，但我們確實關閉了一些非常小的產品。我們關閉了8,000個表現不佳、規模過小的指數，分布在Commodity Insights、Market Intelligence等業務中；也有一些小型產品我們選擇退出。此外，我們也做了幾筆小型的資產剝離。

But when you ask the question to us, we're constantly looking at the portfolio, trying to understand what fits best. We have different themes. You've heard us talk about the key themes, private market, sustainability, supply chain analytics, risk and credit. These are the sorts of areas that we're always looking to expand our presence to make sure we have the best capabilities possible to meet the needs of our clients. But within looking at the needs of clients, we look at the shareholders. We look at how we're going to put this portfolio together with the best way to leverage our technology. We will always apply the discipline as well to how we're going to look at the portfolio in the future.

但回到你的問題，我們一直在持續檢視投資組合，試圖理解什麼最適合。我們有不同的主題方向。你們也聽過我們談到的關鍵主題：私募市場（private market）、永續（sustainability）、供應鏈分析（supply chain analytics）、風險與信用（risk and credit）。這些都是我們持續希望擴大布局的領域，以確保我們具備最佳能力來滿足客戶需求。但在檢視客戶需求的同時，我們也會考量股東。我們會思考如何以最佳方式組合這個投資組合，並最大化運用我們的科技。我們也會一如既往地以紀律性方式，來看待未來的投資組合調整。

Our next question comes from George Tong with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自Goldman Sachs的George Tong。

I'd like to better understand your guidance for Ratings revenue growth in 2024. Do you expect billed debt issuance growth of 3% to 7% but Ratings revenue growth of only 6% to 8% in 2024, which would reflect little to no pricing benefit or mix headwinds? Can you help bridge the gap there?

我想更了解你們對2024年Ratings營收成長的指引。你們預期計費債務發行（billed debt issuance）成長3%到7%，但Ratings營收在2024年僅成長6%到8%，這似乎意味著定價帶來的好處很少甚至沒有，或是組合（mix）帶來的逆風。你們能否協助說明其中的落差？

George, thanks for the question. So maybe I could start with transaction versus non-transaction and how we think about both of those. And as you know, transaction is a somewhat lower proportion of our revenues compared to, let's say, pre pandemic. On the transaction front and specific to billed issuance, as I said in my last response, we look at a variety of factors.

George，謝謝你的提問。也許我可以先從交易型（transaction）與非交易型（non-transaction）收入的差異，以及我們如何看待這兩者談起。如你所知，相較於疫情前，交易型收入目前占我們總收入的比重較低。在交易面、且特別針對計費發行（billed issuance），如我在上一個回答中提到，我們會看多種因素。

Refinancing is a critical one, covered that in my last response, as well as the key macro drivers, when rate cuts could start, for example, what the exit rate on those looks like this year, the potential challenge in predicting opportunistic issuance. And there, we really do not have heroic assumptions around opportunistic issuance for this year. So we're being cautious on that. And then I would say, as I mentioned as well, that we would expect to see more frequent issuer issuance this year, which wouldn't show up in our billed issuance estimate of 3% to 7%.

再融資是其中一個關鍵因素，我在上一個回答也已涵蓋；另外還有主要的宏觀驅動因素，例如降息可能何時開始、今年的降息終點利率（exit rate）可能長什麼樣，以及機會型發行難以預測所帶來的挑戰。在機會型發行方面，我們今年確實沒有做出過度樂觀的假設，因此我們在這點上相對保守。然後我也提到，我們預期今年常態發行人的發行會更多，但這不會反映在我們對計費發行成長3%到7%的估計中。

So I think with all of that, you have to take into consideration the potential wide range of outcomes, whether it's rates, whether it's almost half the world's population voting in elections and potential for greater volatility in the back half of the year. So that informs both the overall outlook of 3% to 7% billed issuance but also the timing that Doug has mentioned, which is a stronger first half versus second half.

因此，綜合以上，你必須把可能出現的廣泛結果區間納入考量：不論是利率走勢，或是全球近一半人口今年將參與選舉，可能使下半年波動加大。這些因素同時影響我們對計費發行成長3%到7%的整體展望，也影響Doug提到的時點判斷，也就是上半年較強、下半年較弱。

On the transaction side, we see strong performance across all key areas there. So that would include our surveillance book. It would include the RES portions of the book, for example, CRISIL as well as the royalty payment that we get from Market Intelligence. So maybe again, I would just reiterate, strong first half and tapering off in the back half. And then as Doug mentioned, it is early in the year. There is potential for upside in the range. And we will look to get more precise on this as we go throughout the year.

在交易型業務方面，我們看到所有關鍵領域都有強勁表現。這包括我們的監測（surveillance）業務；也包括業務組合中RES的部分，例如CRISIL，以及我們從Market Intelligence取得的權利金（royalty payment）。所以我再重申一次：上半年強勁、下半年趨緩。另外如Doug所說，現在仍是年初，區間仍有上行的可能。我們也會在全年推進過程中，努力把這些判斷做得更精準。

Our next question comes from Craig Huber with Huber Research Partners.

下一個問題來自Huber Research Partners的Craig Huber。

Maybe just talk a little bit further about your guidance for the year about where potentially you could be conservative in your mind, whether it be on the cost side of things or you're baking in too much assumption for cost there or on the top line, what segments are potentially coming ahead of your outlook at this stage of the game.

能否再多談一點你們今年的指引：在你們心中，哪些地方可能偏保守？例如成本端，你們是否在成本上納入了過多的假設？或是在營收端，目前有哪些事業部門可能在這個階段就已經跑在你們展望之前？

Thanks, Craig. As you saw when we put together our information we put in our slides, what are the key factors that we look at. And when you take a step back, we know that GDP growth is always the #1 driver. It's the highest correlated factor to our long-term revenue growth. We've looked over the years to see what are those factors that drive it the most. We see some potential slowdown in the economy in the U.S. and in EU. We're planning for what we call -- we're planning against what we call a soft landing, which means that there could be some sort of slowdown in the economy.

謝謝，Craig。如你所見，我們在投影片中整理了我們關注的關鍵因素。退一步來看，我們知道GDP成長永遠是第一大驅動因素，與我們長期營收成長的相關性最高。多年來我們也一直在研究哪些因素對營收成長的驅動最大。我們看到美國與歐盟的經濟可能有一些放緩。我們的規劃是以我們所稱的「軟著陸」（soft landing）為基準，也就是經濟可能出現某種程度的放緩。

As you heard, we've seen some slowness and a little bit of longer sales cycles in certain segments. But that's -- those are some of the downside factors. What would happen with the geopolitical factors, how long will it take before central banks begin to cut rates, we've taken those into account as we built our guidance with some conservatism. So if we saw a much quicker return to lower interest rates, if we saw much quicker -- a geopolitical environment that was more stable, these are the kinds of things that create some upside for the company.

如你所聽到的，我們在某些細分市場看到一些放慢，以及銷售週期略為拉長。但這些都是偏下行的因素。地緣政治因素會如何發展？央行要多久才會開始降息？我們在制定指引時，已把這些因素納入並帶有一定保守性。因此，如果我們看到利率更快回到較低水準，如果我們看到地緣政治環境更快變得穩定，這些都可能為公司帶來一些上行空間。

We also look at segment-by-segment. We know that the automotive segment is going through a lot of change. We know that the energy transition, which is changing the commodity cycle. So we've taken into account all of these different factors as we've looked at the -- overall at the guidance. So to your upside risk -- upside opportunities, we think that it could come if interest rates move down lower faster, if the interest rates -- if the economies grow faster than we think, et cetera. But these are all the factors we take into account across the divisions as we're setting up our guidance for 2024.

我們也會逐一檢視各個事業部門。我們知道汽車產業正經歷大量變化。我們也知道能源轉型正在改變商品循環。因此，在檢視整體指引時，我們已把這些不同因素一併納入。至於你提到的上行風險／上行機會，我們認為如果利率下降得更快、更低，如果經濟成長比我們預期更快，等等，都可能帶來上行。但這些都是我們在設定2024年指引時，跨各事業部門所納入考量的因素。

Our next question comes from John Mazzoni with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自Wells Fargo的John Mazzoni。

Could you just help us understand how you're thinking about the longer-term generative AI monetization, specifically around cross-platforming as well as potential kind of upsell and cross-sell from kind of new products?

你能否協助我們理解你們對於較長期生成式 AI 變現的思考，特別是關於跨平台（cross-platforming），以及從新產品帶來的潛在加值銷售（upsell）與交叉銷售（cross-sell）？

Great. Thank you for that. And when we think about technology, when we think about AI, we start with the framework that we showed you in our prepared remarks today, which has the foundation of very strong proprietary data. We think that this is going to be one of the most important factors for AI becoming successful at any company, no matter where they are. And we think that this gives us a running start in addition to what we've already been developing with Kensho over the last 5 years.

很好。謝謝你的提問。當我們思考科技、思考 AI 時，我們會從今天在事先準備的發言中向各位展示的框架出發，其基礎是非常強大的專有資料。我們認為，無論公司身在何處，這都將是 AI 在任何公司取得成功的最重要因素之一。我們也認為，除了過去 5 年我們與 Kensho 已經在開發的內容之外，這讓我們能夠更快起跑。

But turning that into earnings and turning that into growth is something that we're starting to build. We think that the AI opportunities we have, Adam talked earlier about ChatIQ, is an example of something that gives customers the opportunity to dig much, much deeper into our data. We think that it's going to create stickiness. We're starting with metrics that look at, for example, our Net Promoter Scores.

但要把它轉化為獲利、轉化為成長，是我們正在開始建構的事情。我們認為我們擁有的 AI 機會——Adam 先前提到的 ChatIQ——就是一個例子，它讓客戶有機會更深入、更深入地挖掘我們的資料。我們認為這將帶來黏著度。我們正從一些指標開始衡量，例如我們的淨推薦值（Net Promoter Scores）。

We're looking at retention. We're looking at how people, how -- what kind of feedback we get from calls from customers that are calling in to see how we're doing. We also believe that right now, we're going to be able to continue to meet our guidance that we gave you for our -- in our Investor Day in 2022. We'll be able to continue along that track. And then we'll be able to come out with much more precise guidance for the impact of AI across our portfolio in the future.

我們在看留存率（retention）。我們在看人們——以及我們從來電客戶那裡得到什麼樣的回饋，這些客戶打電話來了解我們做得如何。我們也相信，就目前而言，我們將能夠持續達成我們在 2022 年投資人日所提供的指引——我們能夠沿著那條軌道繼續前進。接著，我們將能在未來針對 AI 對我們整體產品組合的影響，提出更精準的指引。

But we see this as something that's going to be a game changer for all of our businesses. It's going to be embedded in everything we do. And we're just now learning how we're going to measure those impacts. But let me hand it over to Adam because he's very close to a couple of the end market opportunities that we have right now.

但我們把這視為將改變我們所有業務格局的關鍵因素。它會嵌入我們所做的一切。我們也才剛開始學習要如何衡量這些影響。不過我先把問題交給 Adam，因為他非常貼近我們目前幾個終端市場的機會。

Great. Thanks, Doug, and thank you for the question. As Doug mentioned, we do think generative AI has a transformative potential across almost all of our products. Remember, we are one of the largest data providers in the world. And the one thing we have is a highly trusted, highly developed, accurate set of data across our businesses, whether that's in Market Intelligence or the other divisions of our business. We're also deeply embedded in the workflows of our customers.

很好。謝謝你，Doug，也謝謝你的問題。如 Doug 所提，我們確實認為生成式 AI 對幾乎所有產品都具有轉型潛力。請記得，我們是全球最大的資料提供者之一。而我們擁有的是一套高度可信、發展成熟且精準的資料，涵蓋我們各項業務，不論是在 Market Intelligence 或我們其他事業部門。我們也深度嵌入客戶的工作流程之中。

The combination of those two, and when you really understand the power behind generative AI to unlock the potential in massive datasets that may correlate to each other, may have unique insights and the ability to process through that in a very rapid time frame, for us, thinking about portfolio monitoring workflows, research and insights, credit assessments, risk assessment, looking across broad sets of data for insights and what's developing in various sectors or regions or how it could impact the portfolio. Those are all opportunities for us for making the datasets and workflows that we already provide today to our customers all the more powerful.

這兩者的結合，再加上你真正理解生成式 AI 的力量——它能釋放龐大資料集的潛能，這些資料集可能彼此相關、可能蘊含獨特洞見，並能在非常短的時間內完成處理——對我們而言，無論是投資組合監控（portfolio monitoring）工作流程、研究與洞見、信用評估、風險評估、跨越廣泛資料集尋找洞見，以及觀察各產業或地區的發展或其可能如何影響投資組合，這些都是我們的機會，能讓我們今天已提供給客戶的資料集與工作流程變得更強大。

When we look at the opportunity set in front of us and even just our product launch sheet for 2024, we're pretty encouraged that we're well positioned to take advantage of the technology, increase the penetration we have with our customers and expand the kinds of services and insights we're able to give them efficiently. That also increases the efficiency of their own internal workflows, which obviously comes with significant value. We'll see how that all materializes and how we're able to monetize that. But we do think it's a tailwind for us.

當我們看眼前的機會集合，甚至只看我們 2024 年的產品發表清單，我們相當受到鼓舞，因為我們處於有利位置，能夠善用這項技術、提高我們在客戶中的滲透率，並有效率地擴展我們能提供給他們的服務與洞見。這也會提升他們自身內部工作流程的效率，而這顯然具有重大價值。我們會看看這一切如何落地，以及我們如何將其變現。但我們確實認為這對我們是順風（tailwind）。

Our next question comes from Jeff Meuler with Baird.

下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Jeff Meuler。

Ewout, when you described some of the costs that were higher than expected, things like the heritage IHS Markit employee benefit cost, it wasn't clear to me. Was there a true-up that was specific to Q4? Or was there a greater-than-expected step-up in the expense baseline that's happening now? And then on '24 tax rate, what drives the step-up? And is the new rate kind of like a good steady-state rate for the portfolio?

Ewout，當你描述一些高於預期的成本時，例如傳承自 IHS Markit 的員工福利成本，我不太清楚：這是否是特定於第四季（Q4）的追溯調整（true-up）？還是說目前正在發生的是費用基準（expense baseline）出現了高於預期的上移（step-up）？另外，關於 2024 年（'24）稅率，是什麼因素推動上升？新的稅率是否可視為這個產品組合的良好穩態（steady-state）稅率？

Yes, thanks, Jeff. So let me explain what is benefits realignment. So benefits realignment is that we brought, as of January 1, 2023, all of our employees across the world to the same benefits package. Because we think it is fair that we should treat everyone the same in every country around the world, so think about the medical plans, think about the retirement plans. We have made estimates about the expenses for 2023.

是的，謝謝你，Jeff。我來解釋什麼是福利重新調整（benefits realignment）。福利重新調整是指，自 2023 年 1 月 1 日起，我們將全球所有員工納入同一套福利方案。因為我們認為，公平起見，我們應該在全球各國以同樣方式對待每一位員工——例如醫療計畫、退休計畫。我們已對 2023 年的費用做了估計。

And for the first 3 quarters, the expenses came in exactly in line with our expectations. But they exceeded the expectations in the fourth quarter. And benefits costs are always not 100% certain. Because just to give an example, the medical costs in the U.S. were self-insured. So they can be higher if we have higher medical claims or the matching for 401(k) contributions can be higher. So we're seeing this more as a one-time step-up cost. And that should be in our baseline going forward from 2024 onwards.

在前三季，費用完全符合我們的預期。但在第四季超出了預期。而福利成本一向不是 100% 確定的。舉例來說，美國的醫療成本是自保（self-insured），因此若醫療理賠較高，成本就可能更高；或是 401(k) 提撥的公司配比（matching）也可能更高。因此我們更把這視為一次性的成本上移（one-time step-up cost）。而從 2024 年起，這應會納入我們往後的基準之中。

Your second part of your question about the tax rate, we saw in 2023 a bit of a benefit in the tax rate in the third quarter and the fourth quarter. And then we are seeing some upward pressure in the tax rate in 2024. So to expand on that, on the third quarter of 2023, we had some favorable new guidance with respect to the utilization of foreign tax credits. And then in the fourth quarter, we had the conclusion of certain state tax audits that led to some reserve releases. So it brought the effective tax rate a little bit down in 2023 compared to a normalized level.

你問題的第二部分關於稅率：我們在 2023 年第三季與第四季看到稅率有一些好處（benefit）。而在 2024 年，我們看到稅率有一些上行壓力。進一步說明：在 2023 年第三季，我們收到一些有利的新指引，與外國稅額抵免（foreign tax credits）的使用（utilization）相關；而在第四季，我們完成了某些州稅稽核（state tax audits），導致部分準備金回轉（reserve releases）。因此 2023 年的有效稅率（effective tax rate）相較於常態化水準略為下降。

And what we're seeing in 2024, the implementation of Pillar 2 global minimum tax in several jurisdictions as well as the U.K. statutory tax rate is going up. So 2024 is, I think, the right level to think about this. Where tax rate will go from a longer-term perspective is really hard to say because it really depends on government finances and where that will go around the world in the future.

而我們在 2024 年看到的是：多個司法管轄區開始實施第二支柱（Pillar 2）全球最低稅負，以及英國（U.K.）法定稅率上調。因此我認為 2024 年是思考這件事的合適水準。從更長期的角度看稅率會走向何處，真的很難說，因為這很大程度取決於各國政府財政狀況，以及未來全球各地的走向。

Our next question comes from Russell Quelch with Redburn Atlantic.

下一個問題來自 Redburn Atlantic 的 Russell Quelch。

Sorry to go back to this, but on the Ratings business, your macro forecast are implying what I think is a soft landing conducive for rate cuts. And as I understand that the maturity walls built throughout the year, I appreciate some of that could be pulled forward into the front end. But I'm still struggling to square this sort of front-end loaded observation when you discuss revenues relative to your macro guidance. So maybe you could explain that again, please, and also what you're assuming for the non-transaction revenue growth in '24, sorry if I missed that.

抱歉再回到這點，但關於 Ratings 業務，你們的總體（macro）預測暗示我認為是有利於降息的軟著陸（soft landing）。而據我理解，到期壓力（maturity walls）是在全年逐步形成的，我理解其中一部分可能會提前到前段。但當你們在討論相對於總體指引的營收時，我仍難以把這種「前段集中」（front-end loaded）的觀察對上。因此也許你能再解釋一次，另外你們對 2024 年（'24）非交易（non-transaction）營收成長的假設是什麼？如果我漏聽了也抱歉。

Thanks so much, Russell, for the question. Just a quick one on the non-transaction, we don't separate out our guidance between transaction and non-transaction. But as I said, we do expect robust performance in our non-transaction part of the book this year. The picture is a little counterintuitive, in fact, for the timing piece. Because you would, in fact, expect, given our kind of predictions of 3 rate cuts, for example, by the Feds starting in the middle of the year this year that you might see a more even result with issuance throughout the year.

非常感謝你的問題，Russell。先快速回覆非交易部分：我們不會在指引中把交易（transaction）與非交易（non-transaction）拆開。但如我所說，我們確實預期今年我們帳簿中非交易部分會有強勁表現。就時點而言，這幅圖其實有點反直覺。因為你會預期，考量我們例如預測聯準會今年年中開始降息 3 次，你可能會看到全年發行（issuance）更平均的結果。

What we're actually hearing from the market is a little bit different. So for bank loans and high yield, for example, we're seeing and hearing a couple of things. Number one, issuers have accepted the higher for longer. But more importantly, number two, there's a good, really good, strong investor appetite for these asset classes. And pricing is much more constructive this year, for example, than it was same time last year. So these issuers are coming to market. There's a high volume of repricing into that. So for example, the bank loan January volumes for repricing was actually around, if not a little bit higher than, the full year 2023 repricing that we saw in bank loans.

但我們實際從市場聽到的有些不同。以銀行貸款與高收益（high yield）為例，我們看到並聽到幾件事。第一，發行人已接受「高利率維持更久」（higher for longer）。但更重要的是第二，投資人對這些資產類別有很強、非常強的需求。今年的定價環境比去年同期更具建設性（constructive）。因此這些發行人正在進入市場，並出現大量的重新定價（repricing）。例如，銀行貸款 1 月的重新定價量其實大約等於、甚至略高於我們在 2023 全年看到的銀行貸款重新定價量。

And then on investment grade, some of that -- we see that taper a little bit this year compared to last year. The reason for that is that there were so many issuers that came to market last year. But also, those that are sitting waiting for rate cuts can afford to actually absorb what they're sitting on today, whether it's using commercial paper or otherwise to wait for some of those rate cuts to play out. Hopefully, that answers your question. As I said, it's early. We're in the first half of February. And this is our base case. There's a pretty wide range of possibilities here. And we'll look to get much more precise as we go throughout the year.

接著談到投資級方面，其中一部分——我們看到今年相較去年略有收斂。原因在於去年有非常多發行人進入市場。但同時，那些坐等降息的發行人，實際上也有能力吸收他們目前手上的部位，無論是使用商業本票或其他方式，來等待部分降息逐步實現。希望這回答了你的問題。如我所說，現在還早。我們才在二月上旬的上半月。這是我們的基本情境。這裡存在相當廣的可能性區間。我們會在今年進行的過程中，努力把判斷做得更精準。

Our next question comes from Shlomo Rosenbaum with Stifel.

下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Shlomo Rosenbaum。

This is Adam on for Shlomo. Can you discuss the level of incentive compensation in the quarter and what is implied in 2024 versus 2023? And how much does this impact the margin guidance for 2024 as well?

我是 Adam，代 Shlomo 提問。你們能否談談本季的獎勵性薪酬水準，以及 2024 年相較 2023 年隱含的水準？另外，這對 2024 年的利潤率指引會有多大影響？

Yes, we brought up incentive compensation accruals in the fourth quarter. And that was driven by the strong top line performance from both the Ratings and Commodity Insights. So for the total year 2023, our cash bonus incentive accruals are now ending up at a level above 100%. What we always do when we do planning is to reset cash bonus incentives back to 100% from a planning perspective for the next year. So for 2024 in the plan is embedded a 100% payout of our cash bonuses.

是的，我們在第四季提高了獎勵性薪酬的提列。這主要是由 Ratings 與 Commodity Insights 兩個業務強勁的營收表現所帶動。因此就 2023 全年而言，我們的現金獎金激勵提列目前最終會落在 100% 以上。我們在做規劃時一向會把現金獎金激勵從規劃角度重設回 100% 作為下一年的基準。因此，2024 年的計畫中已內含現金獎金 100% 發放的假設。

Our next question comes from Heather Balsky with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行（Bank of America）的 Heather Balsky。

This is Emily Marzo on for Heather Balsky. You talked about elevated cancellations in Market Intelligence. Could you give us some details on what type and maybe size of customers you're seeing cancel? And what kind of discussions you've had so far this year?

我是 Emily Marzo，代 Heather Balsky 提問。你們提到 Market Intelligence 的取消率偏高。能否提供一些細節，說明你們看到取消的是哪一類型、或可能是哪種規模的客戶？以及今年到目前為止你們進行了哪些討論？

Heather (sic) [Emily], it's Adam. Thank you for the question. So through the fourth quarter, in particular, the places where we saw cancellations were actually in our smallest customers, right, customers under relatively low threshold. Our larger customers, while under pressure due to a range of macro reasons, those are places where we have opportunity in a vendor consolidation initiative, where those customers are looking to consolidate the number of vendors they work with. Given the scale and scope of relationship that they have with S&P Global, that often presents opportunity for us.

Heather（口誤）[Emily]，我是 Adam。謝謝你的問題。就第四季而言，特別是我們看到取消的地方，其實是在我們最小型的客戶，也就是客戶規模低於相對較低門檻的那一群。我們的大型客戶雖然因各種總體因素而承壓，但那也是我們在供應商整併（vendor consolidation）倡議中有機會的地方，因為這些客戶希望整併其合作供應商的數量。鑑於他們與 S&P Global 的關係規模與廣度，這往往為我們帶來機會。

And accordingly, we saw much stronger renewal rates in that group of customers than we did amongst our smallest customers. I think the other places where we see pressure is discretionary spend, where customers have a decision whether to undertake a consulting project or a new initiative. Those are places where customers have been a little bit more hesitant into the fourth quarter. And we're hopeful that will continue to stabilize as we get into 2024.

因此，我們在那一群客戶的續約率明顯強於最小型客戶。我認為另外一個我們看到壓力的地方是可自由支配支出（discretionary spend），也就是客戶需要決定是否要進行某個顧問專案或新的倡議。這些領域在第四季客戶確實更為猶豫。我們希望隨著進入 2024 年，情況能持續趨於穩定。

We will now take our final question from Owen Lau with Oppenheimer.

我們現在將進行最後一個問題，來自 Oppenheimer 的 Owen Lau。

I just want to go back to AI. And I think AI, it's great and there are lots of potential. But it looks like whether clients will actually pay extra for it, it's still uncertain. I'm just wondering what makes you confident that you can develop a killer app that people will use it and pay for it.

我想回到 AI 的話題。我認為 AI 很棒，也有很多潛力。但看起來客戶是否真的會為此額外付費，仍不確定。我想請教的是，什麼讓你們有信心能開發出一個大家會用、也願意付費的「殺手級應用」（killer app）？

Thank you, Owen. Well, we take a view that AI is going to be embedded in everything we do. And we don't think there's going to be a killer app. It would be great if there were, but that's not our plan. Our plan is to look at AI to see how it can improve our productivity, how we can use it with our developers, our data management, data linking, et cetera, up into how we're going to improve our products and build products and link them over time.

謝謝你，Owen。我們的看法是，AI 將會被嵌入到我們所做的一切之中。我們不認為會有一個「殺手級應用」。如果有當然很好，但那不是我們的計畫。我們的計畫是檢視 AI 如何提升我們的生產力、如何協助我們的開發人員、資料管理、資料連結等等，進一步到我們如何改善產品、打造產品，並隨時間推進把它們串聯起來。

As you heard from Adam, we've got a few very exciting products that are already being tested in the market. We've launched one recently and then we've got some more coming. We also have the capabilities of Kensho, which are available on the Marketplace. So we don't think of it as a killer app. We think of it as continuous improvement. And we think that if you look at it over time, it's going to be something that's going to change the way we work and the way that our people work. So we're really excited about it.

如同你從 Adam 那裡聽到的，我們已經有幾個非常令人振奮的產品正在市場上測試。我們最近推出了一個，接下來還會有更多。我們也具備 Kensho 的能力，並已在 Marketplace 上提供。因此我們不把它視為「殺手級應用」，而是視為持續改善。我們認為，從長期來看，它將改變我們的工作方式以及員工的工作方式。所以我們對此非常興奮。

We're also excited that we have such a strong internal team that we're one of the first companies who was able to name a Chief Artificial Intelligence Officer, somebody who has the experience of Kensho, of being the CEO there with the expertise. We have an open model in terms of the ecosystem we're going to be working with. So we're not looking for a killer app, but we're looking to see every single way we can use it and how it's going to improve the way we serve our customers as well to manage the business. So thank you, Owen.

我們也很興奮的是，我們擁有非常強的內部團隊，是最早能任命首席人工智慧長（Chief Artificial Intelligence Officer）的公司之一；此人具備 Kensho 的經驗，曾擔任其 CEO，並擁有相關專業。我們在將要合作的生態系方面採取開放模式。因此我們不是在尋找「殺手級應用」，而是在尋找我們可以使用它的每一種方式，以及它將如何改善我們服務客戶的方式、也改善我們管理業務的方式。謝謝你，Owen。

Let me make a couple of closing remarks. And first of all, I want to thank all of you as usual for being on the call and for your excellent questions. And it was great to have Adam and Martina on the call today. And I'm really excited about everything that we're able to deliver in 2023.

我做幾點結語。首先，一如往常，我要感謝各位參與本次電話會議並提出非常精彩的問題。今天能有 Adam 和 Martina 一起參與也很棒。我對我們在 2023 年能交付的一切感到非常振奮。

We delivered what we think is the promise of the merger. As you know, we've paid back over $17.5 billion of capital over the last 2 years since the merger. We've been delivering innovation. We delivered on our synergies. So we're excited about taking that energy and all of the incredible work that our people have done and turning that now into growth into the future.

我們交付了我們認為併購所承諾的成果。如各位所知，自併購以來的過去兩年，我們已回饋超過 175 億美元的資本。我們持續推動創新，也實現了協同效益。因此，我們很期待把這股動能，以及我們同仁所完成的所有令人驚嘆的工作，轉化為未來的成長。

I also want to thank our people as always for their incredible work. It's what made 2023 what it is and it's what makes me very confident about the foundation we have for going forward and especially our leadership team, who is focused on growth, innovation and execution.

我也一如往常要感謝我們的同仁，他們出色的工作成就了 2023 年的表現，也讓我對我們未來前進的基礎非常有信心，特別是我們的領導團隊，專注於成長、創新與執行。

This is our last earnings call with Ewout. He's been with us for 7 years of remarkable service, and I want to thank him. He's helped shape our financial strategy. I know that everybody is very pleased with our margin and as well as our capital return. And that's something that Ewout has been instrumental in. He's helped us lead with our accelerated growth, with our innovation.

這是我們與 Ewout 的最後一次財報電話會議。他與我們共事 7 年，服務卓著，我要向他致謝。他協助塑造了我們的財務策略。我知道大家對我們的利潤率以及資本回饋都非常滿意，而 Ewout 在其中扮演了關鍵角色。他也協助我們以加速成長與創新來引領前進。

And he's had a tremendous impact. He partnered with us on all of the major strategic transactions. He's been the sponsor of Kensho for the last 5 years, which we now talked about many times on this call, the importance that brings to the company as well as one of the initial architects as well as executors of the IHS Markit merger. So he's done a fantastic job building a world-class finance organization.

他帶來了巨大的影響。他與我們一起推動所有重大策略性交易。過去 5 年他一直是 Kensho 的贊助人（sponsor），我們在本次電話會議中也多次談到其對公司的重要性；此外，他也是 IHS Markit 併購案的初期架構設計者之一，同時也是主要的執行者之一。因此，他在打造世界級的財務組織方面做得非常出色。

As we previously announced, our current Chief Accounting Officer, Chris Craig, will be named as the interim CFO on Monday. And he has done a fantastic job here for the last 13 years. And he's going to continue to evaluate the businesses and as we look both internally and externally for candidates for the permanent role, and I look forward to working with Chris in his role. But again, thank you, Ewout. We wish you the best in your new role and continued success in your career. And please keep making the world a better place with your leadership with UNICEF.

如我們先前所宣布，我們現任首席會計長（Chief Accounting Officer）Chris Craig 將於週一被任命為代理 CFO（interim CFO）。他在過去 13 年於此表現非常出色。他將在我們同時於內部與外部尋找永久人選的過程中，持續評估各項業務；我也期待與 Chris 在其職務上合作。但再次感謝你，Ewout。祝福你在新職務上一切順利，職涯持續成功。也請你在 UNICEF 以你的領導力持續讓世界變得更美好。

So again, thank you, everyone, for joining the call. Great questions, and we're very excited about the future. Thank you very much.

再次感謝各位參與本次電話會議。問題都很精彩，我們對未來感到非常振奮。非常感謝。

Thank you. That concludes this morning's call. A PDF version of the presenter slides is available for downloading from investor.spglobal.com. Replays of the entire call will be available in about 2 hours. The webcast with audio and slides will be maintained on S&P Global's website for 1 year. The audio-only telephone replay will be maintained for 1 month. On behalf of S&P Global, we thank you for participating, and wish you a good day.

謝謝。今天上午的電話會議到此結束。簡報投影片的 PDF 版本可至 investor.spglobal.com 下載。約 2 小時後將提供整場會議的重播。包含音訊與投影片的網路直播將在 S&P Global 網站上保留 1 年。僅音訊的電話重播將保留 1 個月。我謹代表 S&P Global 感謝各位參與，並祝各位有美好的一天。