標普全球 (SPGI) 2019 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to S&P Global's First Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. I'd like to inform you that this call is being recorded for broadcast. (Operator Instructions) To access the webcast and slides, go to investor.spglobal.com. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to introduce Mr. Chip Merritt, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations for S&P Global. Sir, you may begin.

早安，歡迎參加 S&P Global 2019 年第一季財報電話會議。在此提醒各位，本次電話會議將被錄音以供播出。(接線員指示) 如需收看網路直播與投影片，請至 investor.spglobal.com。(接線員指示) 現在我想介紹 S&P Global 投資人關係資深副總裁 Chip Merritt 先生。先生，您可以開始了。

Good morning. Thanks for joining S&P Global's earnings call. Presenting on this morning's call are Doug Peterson, President and CEO; and Ewout Steenbergen, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. This morning, we issued a news release with our first quarter 2019 results. If you need a copy of the release and financial schedules, they can be downloaded at investor.spglobal.com.

早安。感謝各位參加 S&P Global 的財報電話會議。今天早上的會議由總裁暨執行長 Doug Peterson，以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Ewout Steenbergen 出席並進行簡報。今天早上，我們已發布 2019 年第一季業績新聞稿。如需新聞稿與財務附表，可至 investor.spglobal.com 下載。

In today's earnings release and during the conference call, we're providing adjusted financial information. This information is provided to enable investors to make meaningful comparisons of the corporation's operating performance between periods and to view the corporation's business from the same perspective as management's. The earnings release contains exhibits that reconcile the difference between the non-GAAP measures and the comparable financial measures calculated in accordance with U.S. GAAP.

在今天的財報新聞稿以及本次電話會議中，我們將提供經調整後的財務資訊。提供此資訊旨在讓投資人能對公司各期間的營運表現進行有意義的比較，並以與管理階層相同的視角檢視公司的業務。財報新聞稿包含附表，用以調節非 GAAP 指標與依美國 GAAP 計算之可比較財務指標之間的差異。

Before we begin, I need to provide certain cautionary remarks about forward-looking statements. Except for historical information, the matters discussed in the teleconference may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including projections, estimates and descriptions of future events. Any such statements are based on current expectations and current economic conditions and are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from results anticipated in these forward-looking statements. In this regard, we direct listeners to the cautionary statements contained in our Form 10-Ks, 10-Qs and other periodic reports filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

在開始之前，我需要就前瞻性陳述提供若干警示性說明。除歷史資訊外，本次電話會議所討論事項可能包含《1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法》所定義的前瞻性陳述，包括對未來事件的預測、估計與描述。任何此類陳述均基於目前的預期與當前經濟狀況，並受各種風險與不確定性影響，可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述所預期的結果出現重大差異。就此，我們請聽眾參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交之 Form 10-K、10-Q 及其他定期報告中所載之警示性聲明。

I would also like to call your attention to a European regulation. Any investor who has or expects to obtain ownership of 5% or more of S&P Global should give me a call to better understand the impact of this legislation on the investor and, potentially, the company.

我也想提醒各位注意一項歐洲法規。任何已持有或預期取得 S&P Global 5% 或以上持股的投資人，請致電與我聯繫，以更了解該立法對投資人以及（可能）對公司所造成的影響。

We're aware that we do have some media representatives with us on the call. However, this call is intended for investors, and we would ask the questions from the media be directed to Jason Feuchtwanger at (212) 438-1247.

我們知道本次電話會議中也有一些媒體代表與會。然而，本次電話會議主要是提供投資人參與；我們也請媒體的提問改向 Jason Feuchtwanger（電話：(212) 438-1247）洽詢。

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Doug Peterson. Doug?

現在，我想把電話會議交給 Doug Peterson。Doug？

Thank you, Chip. Good morning, and welcome to our first quarter earnings call.

謝謝你，Chip。早安，歡迎參加我們的第一季財報電話會議。

2019 began on shaky footing on the heels of the volatility uncertainty in the first quarter. The market have come a long way since the depths of December. The main development in the past quarter has been the recovery of both equity and debt markets. In the meantime, our baseline forecast is slower, but healthy growth for 2019 remains intact. But the most notable change has been a coordinated standdown by major central banks and across-the-board shift in monetary policy bias from gradual tightening to neutral. Markets have responded very positively although risks related to politics and trade still linger.

2019 年在第一季波動與不確定性之後，以不穩的步伐開局。市場自 12 月的低點以來已走了很長一段路。過去一季最主要的發展，是股票與債券市場雙雙回升。同時，我們的基準預測仍維持不變：2019 年成長將放緩，但仍屬健康成長。但最顯著的變化，是主要央行協調一致地暫停行動，貨幣政策立場也全面由逐步緊縮轉為中性。市場反應非常正面，儘管與政治與貿易相關的風險仍然存在。

Our subscription businesses, Market Intelligence and Platts, led revenue growth in the first quarter as it took several weeks in January for markets and, more importantly, ETF, AUM and debt issuance to recover.

第一季我們的訂閱型業務——Market Intelligence 與 Platts——帶動營收成長，因為 1 月市場復甦需要數週時間，而更重要的是 ETF、AUM 與債務發行量的回升也需要時間。

Let me review some of the highlights from the quarter. Market Intelligence led all segments with 8% organic revenue growth. We achieved a 40 basis point improvement in adjusted operating profit margin and, as I will show in a few moments, an even larger increase in our trailing 4-quarter figure. We continued the long track record of reducing average diluted shares outstanding with the decline of 6 million shares.

我來回顧本季的一些重點。Market Intelligence 以 8% 的有機營收成長領先所有事業部門。我們的調整後營業利益率提升 40 個基點；而如我稍後將展示的，我們過去連續 4 季的數字提升幅度更大。我們延續長期以來降低平均稀釋後流通股數的紀錄，本季減少了 600 萬股。

Based primarily on a lower tax rate and a lower share count, we delivered 5% adjusted diluted EPS growth. In a period when markets weren't ideal, we were pleased to still be able to grow adjusted diluted EPS. We generated approximately $306 million in free cash flow excluding certain items in a seasonally low cash flow quarter. We're reaffirming 2019 adjusted guidance. And finally, we launched 2 landmark ESG offerings that I'll review in a few minutes.

主要受惠於較低的稅率與較少的股數，我們達成調整後稀釋每股盈餘（EPS）成長 5%。在市場條件並不理想的期間，我們仍能讓調整後稀釋 EPS 成長，對此感到欣慰。在一個季節性現金流較低的季度中，扣除特定項目後，我們產生約 3.06 億美元的自由現金流。我們重申 2019 年調整後財測指引。最後，我們推出兩項具里程碑意義的 ESG 產品，我將在幾分鐘後說明。

Revenue is largely unchanged versus the prior period as the decline in Ratings revenue is offset by growth in the other 3 segments. Our adjusted operating profit increased 1%, and adjusted operating profit margin increased 40 basis points to 47.3%. But please recall, we measure and track adjusted margins on a trailing 4-quarter basis, which increased 230 basis points. In addition, we continued to reduce shares outstanding, which contributed to the 5% increase in adjusted diluted EPS.

由於 Ratings 營收下滑被其他三個事業部門的成長所抵銷，整體營收與前期相比大致持平。我們的調整後營業利益成長 1%，調整後營業利益率提升 40 個基點至 47.3%。但請記得，我們衡量與追蹤調整後利潤率是以過去連續 4 季為基礎，該指標提升了 230 個基點。此外，我們持續降低流通股數，進而促成調整後稀釋 EPS 成長 5%。

Each quarter, we take an opportunity to highlight key drivers to our business and important projects underway. This quarter, let's start with the data feeds business within Market Intelligence. When most investors think about Market Intelligence, they think about the Capital IQ or Market Intelligence desktop. Data management solutions and rating express, however, offer products that are ingested by our customers as data feeds.

每一季，我們都會藉此機會強調業務的關鍵驅動因素，以及正在推進的重要專案。本季先從 Market Intelligence 內部的資料饋送（data feeds）業務談起。多數投資人提到 Market Intelligence，會想到 Capital IQ 或 Market Intelligence 桌面平台。然而，資料管理解決方案與 RatingsXpress 提供的產品，會以資料饋送的形式由客戶匯入使用。

This data feed business has grown about 11% annually for the last 2 years and is on track to deliver revenue of more than $600 million this year. Historically, data feeds have primarily been made up of RatingsXpress, which is the reselling of ratings information, Compustat and CUSIP, along with other offerings, including GICS, cross-reference services and earnings estimates.

過去兩年，這項資料饋送業務每年約成長 11%，並可望在今年帶來超過 6 億美元的營收。歷史上，資料饋送主要由 RatingsXpress（即評等資訊的轉售）、Compustat 與 CUSIP 構成，並包含其他產品，如 GICS、交叉參照服務與盈餘預估等。

In the past year, we have had a 40% increase in the number of data packages available through our data feeds. These have included alternative data such as machine-readable transcripts, Panjiva shipping data and SNL asset-level data. We expect that Trucost ESG data, transcript sentiment scores and other unique data sets in the near future. The key is to deliver unique data to our customers in the form of which they need it.

在過去一年，我們透過資料饋送可提供的資料套件數量增加了 40%。其中包含替代性資料，例如可供機器讀取的逐字稿、Panjiva 航運資料，以及 SNL 資產層級資料。我們預期在不久的將來納入 Trucost ESG 資料、逐字稿情緒分數，以及其他獨特的資料集。關鍵在於，以客戶所需要的形式，向其提供獨特的資料。

Now turning to Ratings. During the first quarter, global bond issuance decreased 3% with mixed performance in various geographies and asset classes. If we also include all bank loan ratings volume, total global issuance declined 13%. In the U.S., bond issuance declined 7% as investment grade decreased 8%, high yield increased 6%, public finance improved 17% and structured finance declined 20% with drops in CLOs, ABS and CMBS, partially offset by gains in RMBS. In Europe, bond issuance decreased 9% as investment grade decreased 13%, high yield declined 26% and structured finance increased 10% due to strength in covered bonds, a category where we have very little presence. In Asia, bond issuance increased 12%.

接著談 Ratings。第一季全球債券發行量下降 3%，各地區與各資產類別表現不一。若同時納入所有銀行貸款評等量，全球總發行量下降 13%。在美國，債券發行量下降 7%；其中投資等級下降 8%、高收益上升 6%、公共融資改善 17%，而結構性融資下降 20%，主要因 CLO、ABS 與 CMBS 下滑，部分被 RMBS 的成長所抵銷。在歐洲，債券發行量下降 9%；其中投資等級下降 13%、高收益下降 26%，結構性融資則因擔保債（covered bonds）強勁而成長 10%，而該類別我們涉入甚少。在亞洲，債券發行量增加 12%。

Last quarter, we introduced this chart to attempt to track debt issuance and global cash balances of those companies with the most overseas cash at the end of 2017. We're pleased that the cash balances of these companies continued to decline and that the issuance among these companies is showing signs of recovery after an anemic 2018. The latest 2019 global issuance forecast is largely unchanged from the previous forecast. Excluding international public finance, which has minimal impact on our financial results, issuance is expected to decrease less than 1%.

上季我們介紹了這張圖，嘗試追蹤 2017 年底海外現金最多的那些公司的債務發行與全球現金餘額。我們很高興看到這些公司的現金餘額持續下降，且在 2018 年疲弱之後，這些公司的發行量已出現復甦跡象。最新的 2019 年全球發行量預測與先前預測大致不變。若排除對我們財務結果影響極小的國際公共融資，預期發行量降幅將小於 1%。

Leverage loan activity has become an important source of revenue as these loans are increasingly rated. This chart depicts new leverage loan volume for the past 6 years and excludes repricing and amend-to-extend volume. First quarter volume is down 26% primarily due to less M&A activity as well as a dramatic reduction in leveraged loan fund assets.

槓桿貸款活動已成為重要的營收來源，因為這些貸款愈來愈常被評級。本圖表呈現過去6年的新發槓桿貸款量，並排除重新定價以及延長到期（amend-to-extend）量。第一季量下滑26%，主要因併購（M&A）活動減少，以及槓桿貸款基金資產大幅縮減。

This chart shows that for the past 23 weeks, U.S. leverage loan funds have experienced significant outflows. In fact, since peaking at $109 billion in October 2018, loan funds have had net outflows totaling over $25 billion. Investing in leverage loans is more appealing when rates were rising because loans have variable rates. Now that expectations for rate increase have subsided, high-yield debt looks relatively more attractive. Remember when doing your analysis, leverage loan activity is not included in bond issuance data. And so our bank loan ratings revenue decreased in the first quarter to $67 million versus $99 million in the first quarter of 2018.

本圖表顯示，在過去23週，美國槓桿貸款基金出現顯著資金流出。事實上，自2018年10月達到1,090億美元高峰以來，貸款基金的淨流出累計已超過250億美元。在利率上升時投資槓桿貸款更具吸引力，因為貸款為浮動利率。如今市場對升息的預期已消退，高收益債相對看起來更具吸引力。請記得在進行分析時，槓桿貸款活動不包含在債券發行數據中。因此，我們的銀行貸款評級營收在第一季降至6,700萬美元，對比2018年第一季的9,900萬美元。

During Investor Day, we introduced the framework Powering the Markets of the Future, including 6 foundational capabilities. We use this framework to set our goals and allocate resources. During our fourth quarter call, I shared projects underway in each of these categories with particular emphasis on global with our Ratings opportunity in China. Let me start there and then highlight some new opportunities under innovation and customer orientation.

在投資人日（Investor Day）上，我們介紹了「驅動未來市場（Powering the Markets of the Future）」的架構，其中包含6項基礎能力。我們運用此架構來設定目標並分配資源。在第四季電話會議中，我分享了各類別正在推進的專案，並特別強調我們在中國的評級（Ratings）機會所帶來的全球性機遇。我先從那裡談起，接著再重點說明在創新與客戶導向之下的一些新機會。

After receiving approval to enter the domestic Chinese bond market in January, our official launch has then took place on March 26. We hosted a half-day seminar in Beijing with 170 participants from issuing companies, fixed income investors, banks and other participants in China's financial markets. This was an opportunity to showcase our new team as well as our strong commitment to bring more transparency and insights to China's financial markets, also outlining a vision that goes beyond our Ratings business and across all of our divisions.

在1月獲准進入中國境內債券市場後，我們於3月26日正式啟動。我們在北京舉辦了半天研討會，吸引170位來自發行公司、固定收益投資人、銀行及中國金融市場其他參與者出席。這是展示我們新團隊的機會，也展現我們致力於為中國金融市場帶來更多透明度與洞見的堅定承諾，同時勾勒出一個不僅止於評級業務、而是橫跨我們所有事業部門的願景。

ESG is a major focus in the areas of customer orientation and innovation. Our ESG efforts at S&P Global span every business segment. In 2019, we anticipate ESG revenue will approach $50 million. We recognize that different clients have different needs and are trying to tailor products specific to those needs. To that end, we have created the ESG data factory to centralize the data collected across the company, which can be used in any of our ESG offerings. This ensures consistency of inputs across the various products as well as scale.

ESG是客戶導向與創新領域的重點。S&P Global的ESG工作涵蓋每一個業務部門。2019年，我們預期ESG營收將接近5,000萬美元。我們了解不同客戶有不同需求，並嘗試針對這些需求量身打造產品。為此，我們建立了ESG資料工廠（ESG data factory），將公司各處蒐集的資料集中管理，可用於我們任何ESG產品與服務。這可確保各項產品的輸入資料一致性，同時具備規模效益。

We're expanding on our ESG heritage in S&P Dow Jones Indices. 20 years ago, we launched the Dow Jones Sustainability Indices, arguably, the best-known ESG indices in the market. We're now introducing an enhanced ESG scoring methodology designed for the new S&P 500 ESG Index and the upcoming country-specific and regional ESG indices.

我們正擴展S&P Dow Jones Indices在ESG方面的傳承。20年前，我們推出道瓊永續指數（Dow Jones Sustainability Indices），可說是市場上最知名的ESG指數之一。我們目前正導入強化版的ESG評分方法，將用於新的S&P 500 ESG指數，以及即將推出的各國別與區域ESG指數。

The scores are used as inputs to evaluate companies in the indices. The S&P DJI ESG scores are available to the market as a stand-alone product and can be used as a tool for a broad range of research, indexing and investment purposes. The first of the new ESG indices to launch is the S&P 500 ESG Index. An increasing number of investors require indices that are aligned not only with their investment goals, but also their individual and institutional values. The S&P 500 ESG Index is constructed with both of these in mind.

這些分數作為輸入，用於評估指數中的公司。S&P DJI ESG分數可作為獨立產品提供給市場，並可作為廣泛研究、指數編製與投資用途的工具。首個推出的新ESG指數是S&P 500 ESG指數。愈來愈多投資人需要的指數，不僅要符合其投資目標，也要與其個人與機構價值觀一致。S&P 500 ESG指數的建構同時考量了這兩點。

The S&P 500 ESG Index targets 75% of the traditional S&P 500's market capitalization at the industry level based on their GICS code. The index offers diversification and a profile that is close in line with that of the U.S. large-cap market. UBS is the first firm to license this product for ETFs that launched last month on several European exchanges.

S&P 500 ESG指數以產業層級（依其GICS代碼）為基礎，鎖定傳統S&P 500市值的75%。該指數提供分散效果，其特性與美國大型股市場的輪廓相當接近。瑞銀（UBS）是第一家授權此產品用於ETF的機構，相關ETF已於上月在多個歐洲交易所上市。

S&P Global Ratings launched ESG Evaluations to serve issuers and fixed income investors. Our ESG Evaluation is a cross-sector, relative analysis of an entity's ability to operate successfully in the future and optimize long-term stakeholder value in light of its natural and social environment and the quality of its governance. In addition to leveraging the ESG data factory, the engagement that our ratings analyst have with client company management, coupled with the judgment of our analysts, add unique insights to this product.

S&P Global Ratings推出ESG評估（ESG Evaluations），以服務發行人與固定收益投資人。我們的ESG評估是一項跨產業的相對分析，用以衡量某一實體在考量其自然與社會環境以及治理品質的情況下，未來能否成功營運並最大化長期利害關係人價值的能力。除運用ESG資料工廠外，我們評級分析師與客戶公司管理層的互動，再加上分析師的專業判斷，為此產品帶來獨特洞見。

Delivering innovative new products and updating existing products is an important emphasis at S&P Global. Our indices business recently launched the Global SmallCap Select Indices. This series of new indices is designed to improve long-term risk-adjusted performance of small caps by excluding companies without a consistent track record of positive earnings.

推出創新新產品並更新既有產品，是S&P Global的重要重點。我們的指數業務近期推出全球小型股精選指數（Global SmallCap Select Indices）。這一系列新指數旨在透過排除缺乏穩定正向盈餘紀錄的公司，提升小型股的長期風險調整後表現。

In addition, Platts launched assessments of Low Sulphur Marine Fuel in response to International Maritime Organization's 0.5% sulphur cap on marine fuel that begins in January 2020. Our new assessments are for daily cargo and barge prices of marine fuel 0.5%, reflecting global pricing of IMO 2020 compliant residual marine fuels. Based on these new assessments, ICE launched 6 marine fuel 0.5% futures contracts on February 19, which traded 84 lots equaling over 500,000 barrels on the first day.

此外，Platts因應國際海事組織（IMO）自2020年1月起對船用燃料實施0.5%硫含量上限，推出低硫船用燃料的評估報價。我們的新評估涵蓋0.5%船用燃料的每日船貨與駁船價格，反映符合IMO 2020規範的殘渣型船用燃料之全球定價。基於這些新評估，ICE於2月19日推出6個0.5%船用燃料期貨合約，首日成交84手，約等於超過50萬桶。

In March, S&P Dow Jones Indices benchmarks, including the iconic S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, became the first benchmarks to be endorsed under the EU Benchmark Regulation and included in the ESMA register, enabling supervised entity in EU to continue to use them.

3月，S&P Dow Jones Indices的基準指數（包括具代表性的S&P 500與道瓊工業平均指數）成為首批在歐盟基準指數法規（EU Benchmark Regulation）下獲得認可並納入ESMA登錄名冊的基準，使歐盟受監管機構得以持續使用。

And finally, Platts recently announced to change to the Dated Brent benchmark. The proposal move to a CIF, C-I-F, Rotterdam basis, which means it'll be a landed cost. With FOB supply in the North Sea gradually falling, this proposal ensure ample liquidity of grades in the Dated Brent basket for the foreseeable future.

最後，Platts近期宣布將調整Dated Brent基準。該提案將改為以CIF（到岸成本；C-I-F）鹿特丹為基礎，亦即採用到岸成本。隨著北海FOB供給逐步下降，此提案可確保在可預見的未來，Dated Brent籃子中的各等級具備充足流動性。

And last, I'd like to share the early success of 2 new price assessments that we featured in previous earnings calls. These charts depicted the volume of options and futures contracts that are based on Platts' JKM marker and Black Sea wheat. As you can see in these charts, both price assessments are gaining great adoption in the marketplace.

最後，我想分享我們在先前財報電話會議中提到的兩項新價格評估的初步成功。這些圖表呈現以Platts的JKM指標與黑海小麥為基礎的選擇權與期貨合約成交量。如圖所示，這兩項價格評估在市場上的採用度都在快速提升。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Ewout Steenbergen, our CFO, who'll provide additional insights into our capital plans and financial performance. Ewout?

接下來我想把電話會議交給我們的財務長（CFO）Ewout Steenbergen，他將就我們的資本規劃與財務表現提供更多洞見。Ewout？

Thank you, Doug, and good morning to all of you on the call.

謝謝你，Doug，也向各位與會者道早安。

Let me start with our first quarter financial results. Doug covered the highlights, I will take a moment to cover a few other line items. Adjusted corporate unallocated improved by 30%, primarily because the $20 million contribution to the S&P Global Foundation in the prior period did not recur. This was partially offset by the addition of Kensho. Total adjusted expenses decreased 1%. This is notable considering that the acquisitions of Pragmatix, Panjiva, RateWatch and Kensho have added to our cost structure.

我先從第一季財務結果談起。Doug已涵蓋重點，我再花點時間補充幾個其他損益項目。調整後公司層級未分攤項目改善30%，主要因前期對S&P Global Foundation的2,000萬美元捐款未再發生。這部分被Kensho的併入所部分抵銷。調整後總費用下降1%。考量到收購Pragmatix、Panjiva、RateWatch與Kensho增加了我們的成本結構，這點尤其值得注意。

The adjusted effective tax rate of 20.9%, 80 basis points lower than a year ago and less than our full year guidance of 22.5% to 23.5%. This was primarily due to a larger-than-normal level of stock option exercises that occurred during the first quarter. We have actively been returning capital to shareholders over the past year. These actions resulted in a 2% decline in our diluted weighted average shares outstanding.

調整後有效稅率為20.9%，較去年同期低80個基點，也低於我們全年指引的22.5%至23.5%。這主要是因第一季發生了高於正常水準的員工股票選擇權行使。過去一年我們積極向股東返還資本。這些行動使我們的稀釋後加權平均流通股數下降2%。

Stock options associated with 600,000 shares were exercised during the first quarter. This resulted in a stock-based compensation tax benefit on EPS of $0.07. As the number of employee stock options continues to decline, we expect the stock-based compensation tax benefit to decline as well. However because of the volume of options exercised in the first quarter, we're increasing our estimate of the 2019 EPS impact by $0.05 to a range of $0.10 to $0.15.

與600,000股相關的股票選擇權於第一季被行使。因此，股票基礎薪酬的稅務利益對每股盈餘（EPS）的貢獻為0.07美元。隨著員工股票選擇權數量持續下降，我們預期股票基礎薪酬的稅務利益也將隨之下降。然而，由於第一季行使的選擇權數量較大，我們將2019年對EPS的影響估計上調0.05美元，至0.10至0.15美元的區間。

Changes in foreign exchange rates had a negative impact on revenue in the Ratings and Market Intelligence businesses and a negligible impact on adjusted operating profit for the company. Our revenue was negatively impacted primarily by the weakening of the euro and the British pound. Weakness in both of these currencies, along with weakness in the Indian rupee, also reduced expenses, resulting in a minimal impact from ForEx on adjusted EPS.

外匯匯率變動對評級（Ratings）與市場情報（Market Intelligence）業務的營收造成負面影響，對公司調整後營業利益的影響則可忽略不計。我們的營收主要受到歐元與英鎊走弱的負面影響。這兩種貨幣走弱，加上印度盧比走弱，也降低了費用，使外匯對調整後EPS的影響極小。

There were 3 non-GAAP adjustments this quarter: a $113 million pretax noncash charge associated with our frozen U.S. defined benefit pension plan. This was the result of transferring a portion of our pension funding obligation to an insurance company; $7 million in Kensho retention-related expenses; and we had $32 million in deal-related amortization.

本季有3項非GAAP調整：與我們已凍結的美國確定給付退休金計畫相關的1.13億美元稅前非現金費用。這是因將部分退休金資金提撥義務移轉給保險公司所致；與Kensho留任相關的700萬美元費用；以及3,200萬美元的交易相關攤銷。

This is a slide that we shared at our Investor Day in May 2018. It depicts a framework that we outlined to show the areas where we can most impact shareholder value. The first 2 require investments. We need to continue to invest to fuel revenue momentum by improving our products, introducing new technology, adding new data sets and entering new geographies.

這是我們在2018年5月投資人日分享的一張投影片。它呈現了我們所提出的一個架構，用以說明我們最能影響股東價值的領域。前兩項需要投資。我們需要持續投資，透過改善產品、導入新技術、增加新資料集並進入新地理市場，以推動營收動能。

We have made great progress delivering EBITDA enhancement, and we must continue to fund new organic opportunities to drive additional productivity gains. Driving financial leverage enforce optimizing interest costs, reducing shares outstanding and optimizing the tax rate. And finally, we want to return capital to shareholders while maintaining flexible debt capacity. We're committed to returning at least 75% of annual free cash flow to shareholders each year.

我們在提升EBITDA方面已取得重大進展，且必須持續投入資金於新的有機成長機會，以帶動進一步的生產力提升。推動財務槓桿包括最佳化利息成本、減少流通在外股數以及最佳化稅率。最後，我們希望在維持彈性負債承擔能力的同時，將資本回饋給股東。我們承諾每年將至少75%的年度自由現金流回饋給股東。

This quarter, our subscription businesses, Market Intelligence and Platts, delivered the strongest revenue growth. As we have said many times, we managed adjusted operating margins on a trailing 4-quarter basis. So while there were declines in quarterly figures versus the first quarter of 2018, all 4 businesses delivered margin gains on a trailing 4-quarter basis.

本季，我們的訂閱型業務——市場情報（Market Intelligence）與Platts——帶來最強勁的營收成長。如同我們多次提到的，我們以過去4季（trailing 4-quarter）為基礎管理調整後營業利潤率。因此，儘管相較2018年第一季，單季數據有所下滑，但四大業務在過去4季基礎上皆實現利潤率提升。

Now turning to the balance sheet. Cash and cash equivalents declined versus the end of 2018, principally due to $644 million of share repurchases during the first quarter. Our adjusted growth leverage to adjusted EBITDA declined to 1.8x, remaining within our targeted range of 1.75 to 2.25x.

接著看資產負債表。現金及約當現金較2018年底下降，主要原因是第一季回購股票6.44億美元。我們的調整後總槓桿（相對於調整後EBITDA）降至1.8倍，仍在我們目標區間1.75至2.25倍之內。

Free cash flow excluding certain items increased 3% to $306 million. This is a seasonally low free cash flow quarter with incentive compensation payments each year in the first quarter. During the quarter, we returned $785 million to shareholders through a combination of dividends, open market purchases and an ASR. In addition, during the quarter, we received 3.4 million shares, 0.8 million shares from open market purchases, 0.4 million shares from the true-up of the old ASR and 2.2 million shares -- initial shares from the current ASR.

扣除特定項目後的自由現金流增加3%，至3.06億美元。由於每年第一季會支付激勵薪酬，本季屬於季節性自由現金流偏低的季度。本季我們透過股利、公開市場買回以及加速股票回購（ASR）的組合，向股東回饋7.85億美元。此外，本季我們收到340萬股，其中80萬股來自公開市場買回、40萬股來自舊ASR的調整（true-up），以及220萬股——來自本次ASR的初始交付股數。

Now let's turn to the segment results, starting with Market Intelligence. Market Intelligence delivered a strong quarter with revenue increasing 10%, 8% on an organic basis, and active desktop user growth of 13%. I need to point out 2 changes that both became effective on January 1. First, we are now including Kensho revenue in Market Intelligence rather than reporting it as a corporate item as we did in 2018. Second, in both periods, Trucost has been transferred from Indices to Market Intelligence. With the ESG efforts underway at Market Intelligence, we believe the business is better suited to be included here.

接下來看各事業部門表現，先從市場情報（Market Intelligence）開始。市場情報本季表現強勁，營收成長10%，以有機基礎計成長8%，活躍桌面端用戶數成長13%。我需要指出兩項自1月1日起生效的變更。第一，我們現在將Kensho營收納入市場情報，而非如2018年那樣列為公司層級項目。第二，在兩個期間中，Trucost已從指數（Indices）轉移至市場情報。隨著市場情報推動ESG相關工作，我們認為該業務更適合納入此處。

Adjusted expenses increased 2%, adjusted segment operating profit increased 27% and the adjusted segment operating profit margin increased 460 basis points to 33.8% despite increased investments in the business. More importantly, on a trailing 4-quarter basis, the business delivered an exceptional adjusted segment operating profit margin increase of 350 basis points to 35.2%. Also in March, we announced the sale of the Standard & Poor's Investment Advisory Services business to Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Terms of the deal were not disclosed. The transaction is expected to close in mid-2019.

調整後費用增加2%，調整後部門營業利益增加27%，即使加大對業務的投資，調整後部門營業利益率仍提升460個基點至33.8%。更重要的是，以過去4季為基礎，該業務的調整後部門營業利益率大幅提升350個基點至35.2%。另外在3月，我們宣布將Standard & Poor's投資顧問服務（Investment Advisory Services）業務出售給高盛資產管理（Goldman Sachs Asset Management）。交易條款未予揭露。預期該交易將於2019年年中完成交割。

Desktop, the largest category, grew 6%, excluding acquisitions. Data Management Solutions realized 11% revenue growth, once again, benefiting from expansion of the data feeds business that Doug highlighted earlier. Risk Services has been renamed Credit Risk Solutions and grew 11%, with RatingsXpress providing the greatest level of growth as we continue to expand the data feeds portion of Credit Risk Solutions.

最大類別桌面端（Desktop）在排除併購影響後成長6%。資料管理解決方案（Data Management Solutions）營收成長11%，再次受惠於Doug先前提到的資料饋送（data feeds）業務擴張。風險服務（Risk Services）已更名為信用風險解決方案（Credit Risk Solutions）並成長11%；隨著我們持續擴大信用風險解決方案中的資料饋送部分，RatingsXpress帶來最高的成長貢獻。

While bank loan volume and bond issuance activity declined 13%, Ratings revenue only declined 7%. This decline was partially mitigated by a 2% decline in adjusted expenses, resulting in an 11% reduction in adjusted segment operating profit and a 240 basis points decline in adjusted segment operating profit margin. On a trailing 4-quarter basis, adjusted segment operating profit margin increased 140 basis points to 55.4%.

儘管銀行貸款量與債券發行活動下滑13%，評級（Ratings）營收僅下滑7%。此下滑部分被調整後費用下降2%所抵銷，導致調整後部門營業利益下降11%，調整後部門營業利益率下降240個基點。以過去4季為基礎，調整後部門營業利益率提升140個基點至55.4%。

Non-transaction revenue decreased primarily due to a $9 million impact from changes in foreign exchange. In addition, lower Rating Evaluation Services activity, CRISIL, and slightly lower new entity ratings contributed to the decline. Inter-segment royalties from Market Intelligence partially offset these declines.

非交易型營收下降，主要因外匯變動帶來900萬美元的影響。此外，較低的評級評估服務（Rating Evaluation Services）活動、CRISIL，以及略低的新發行人（entity）評級也促成下滑。來自市場情報（Market Intelligence）的跨部門權利金（inter-segment royalties）部分抵銷了上述下滑。

Transaction revenue decreased due to lower bank loan rating activity and, to a lesser extent, fewer bonds ratings. Non-transaction revenue has been a steady source of growth. This is because the majority of the revenue is subscription-like. However, there are some volatility at certain components, namely Rating Evaluation Services, ebb and flow with M&A activity and changes in foreign exchange rates can always have an impact.

交易型營收下降，原因是銀行貸款評級活動減少，且在較小程度上，債券評級數量也較少。非交易型營收一直是穩定的成長來源。這是因為大部分營收具有類訂閱性質。然而，某些組成項目仍存在波動性，尤其是評級評估服務（Rating Evaluation Services），會隨併購（M&A）活動起伏；外匯匯率變動也可能隨時產生影響。

This slide depicts ratings revenue by its end markets. The largest contributor to the decline in Ratings revenue was the 8% decline in corporates primarily due to less bank loan rating activity. In addition, financial services revenue decreased 2%, structured finance declined 19%, government increased 6% and CRISIL and other category decreased 5%. This includes an increase in inter-segment royalties from Market Intelligence, offset by a decline in CRISIL's dollar-denominated revenue.

這張投影片按終端市場呈現評級（Ratings）營收。評級營收下滑的最大來源是企業（corporates）下滑8%，主要因銀行貸款評級活動減少。此外，金融服務營收下降2%，結構性金融下降19%，政府上升6%，CRISIL及其他類別下降5%。其中包含來自市場情報（Market Intelligence）的跨部門權利金增加，但被CRISIL以美元計價營收的下降所抵銷。

Turning to S&P Dow Jones Indices. The segment delivered 2% revenue growth, 6% adjusted expense growth, 1% adjusted segment operating profit growth and an adjusted segment operating profit margin of 69.5%, a decline of 100 basis points. This margin decline was primarily the result of a revenue mix with a lower proportion of exchange-traded derivative from revenue than in the prior period. On a trailing 4-quarter basis, adjusted segment operating profit margin increased 80 basis points to 67.7%.

接著看S&P道瓊指數（S&P Dow Jones Indices）。該部門營收成長2%，調整後費用成長6%，調整後部門營業利益成長1%，調整後部門營業利益率為69.5%，下降100個基點。此利潤率下滑主要是因營收組合變化，使交易所交易衍生性商品（exchange-traded derivative）營收占比較前期降低。以過去4季為基礎，調整後部門營業利益率提升80個基點至67.7%。

Revenue was mixed during the quarter. Asset-linked fees increased 9% primarily due to an improvement in the timing of customer reporting, purchase of certain intellectual property rights and mutual funds AUM growth. Exchange-traded derivative revenue declined 32% from an incredibly strong quarter a year ago. Data and custom subscriptions increased 28% due to a catch-up in real-time reporting that we first discussed in the second quarter of last year as well as from organic growth.

本季營收表現好壞參半。資產連結型費用增加9%，主要受惠於客戶回報時點改善、購買部分智慧財產權以及共同基金資產管理規模（AUM）成長。交易所交易衍生性商品營收較去年同期極為強勁的一季下滑32%。由於即時回報出現追補（我們在去年第二季首次討論）以及內生成長，資料與客製化訂閱增加28%。

For our Indices business, ETF net inflows were $2 billion in the first quarter, and the average ETF AUM in the first quarter increased 2% year-over-year. I want to make a clear distinction between average AUM and quarter-ending AUM. Our contracts are based on average AUM. We disclose quarter-ending figures because flows and market gains and losses are best depicted using quarter-end figures as shown in the waterfall chart on the right.

就我們的指數業務而言，第一季ETF淨流入為20億美元，且第一季ETF平均AUM年增2%。我想清楚區分平均AUM與季末AUM。我們的合約是以平均AUM為基礎。我們揭露季末數字，是因為資金流向以及市場漲跌，用季末數字最能呈現，如右側瀑布圖所示。

While average AUM increased modestly, quarter-ending AUM increased 11% versus the end of the first quarter of 2018. A year ago, there was $1.327 trillion in ETF AUM linked to our indices. At the end of the first quarter this year, there was $1.473 trillion. Since March 31, 2018, there has been $95 billion of inflows and $51 billion in stock market appreciation. Industry inflows into exchange-traded funds were $97 billion in the first quarter, with the majority going into fixed income and global equity products. Flows into U.S. equity funds were only $7 billion.

雖然平均AUM僅小幅增加，但季末AUM較2018年第一季末增加11%。一年前，與我們指數連結的ETF AUM為1.327兆美元。今年第一季末為1.473兆美元。自2018年3月31日以來，資金流入950億美元，股市上漲貢獻510億美元。第一季全產業流入交易所交易基金的資金為970億美元，多數流向固定收益與全球股票產品。流入美國股票基金的資金僅70億美元。

These charts are from a report S&P Dow Jones Indices recently published and titled Sector Effects in the S&P 500: The Role of Sectors in Risk, Pricing and Active Returns. Tradable sector-based investment tools are not new. Products such as exchange-traded funds based on sector indices have existed since at least the late 1990s. However, interest in these products has recently grown materially. These charts show that the assets, open-interest, trading volume associated with certain index-based sector products have more than doubled in the past 5 years. In addition, in February 2019, CBOE launched options on 11 of our select sector indices. These products make it easier for investors to use sectors to express views and manage sectoral exposures.

這些圖表出自標普道瓊指數（S&P Dow Jones Indices）近期發布的一份報告，題為《S&P 500中的產業效果：產業在風險、定價與主動報酬中的角色》。可交易的產業別投資工具並非新事物。以產業指數為基礎的ETF等產品，至少自1990年代末期即已存在。然而，市場對這些產品的興趣近來顯著升溫。這些圖表顯示，過去5年中，與特定指數型產業產品相關的資產、未平倉量與交易量已增加逾一倍。此外，2019年2月，CBOE推出了我們11個精選產業指數的選擇權。這些產品讓投資人更容易運用產業別來表達觀點並管理產業曝險。

Key indicators for our exchange-traded derivatives volume decreased from a volatile first quarter of 2018. S&P 500 index options activity decreased 23%, VIX futures and options activity decreased 48% and activity at the CME equity complex decreased 23%.

相較於波動劇烈的2018年第一季，我們交易所交易衍生性商品的成交量關鍵指標有所下降。S&P 500指數選擇權活動量下降23%，VIX期貨與選擇權活動量下降48%，CME股票相關產品群的活動量下降23%。

And now turning to the last business segment. Platts revenue increased to 5% as a result of a 5% increase in core subscriptions and a 7% increase in Global Trading Services. Adjusted expenses increased 6%, leading to adjusted segment operating profit margin of 47.4%, a decrease of 60 basis points. The trailing 4-quarter adjusted segment operating profit margin was exceptional, increasing 260 basis points to 48.9%.

接著來看最後一個業務部門。Platts營收成長5%，主要來自核心訂閱成長5%以及全球交易服務（Global Trading Services）成長7%。調整後費用增加6%，使調整後部門營業利益率為47.4%，下降60個基點。過去4季的調整後部門營業利益率表現出色，上升260個基點至48.9%。

Platts revenue increased in the quarter as all 4 commodity groups reported growth. Petroleum, the largest category, delivered the most growth at 6%. Last quarter, we shared a slide on the right with you, depicting a stepped-up level of investment to fuel future organic growth. However, we thought that as you try to model our results, it will be important for you to understand the level of investment in each of the segments. As you can see from the chart on the left, Market Intelligence is investing half of the total. In addition, this spending is expected to build as the year progresses.

本季Platts營收成長，四大商品群皆呈報成長。其中最大類別石油（Petroleum）成長最多，達6%。上季我們與各位分享了右側投影片，說明為推動未來內生成長而提高投資的水準。不過，我們認為當各位嘗試建立我們的業績模型時，理解各部門的投資水準將很重要。如左側圖表所示，Market Intelligence投入了總投資的一半。此外，預期這項支出將隨著年度推進而增加。

Now lastly, I would like to discuss our 2019 guidance. This slide depicts our GAAP guidance. Please keep in mind that our guidance reflects current spot market ForEx rates. Because of the $113 million pretax noncash charge associated with a partial risk transfer of the frozen U.S. defined benefit pension plan that I noted earlier, we are decreasing our 2019 GAAP guidance, diluted EPS guidance.

最後，我想談談我們對2019年的指引。這張投影片呈現我們的GAAP指引。請記得，我們的指引反映目前即期市場外匯（ForEx）匯率。由於我先前提到、與美國凍結之確定給付（defined benefit）退休金計畫部分風險移轉相關的1.13億美元稅前非現金費用，我們下調2019年GAAP指引中的稀釋後每股盈餘（diluted EPS）指引。

However, because this item is not part of our adjusted results, it does not necessitate any changes to our adjusted guidance. In fact, we are not making changes to our adjusted guidance because we are optimistic about our current outlook for markets, our competitive strength and the initiatives we have underway. In addition, we continue to expect year-over-year growth as quarterly comparisons get easier as the year progresses.

然而，由於此項目不屬於我們的調整後結果，因此不需要對調整後指引做任何變更。事實上，我們不調整調整後指引，因為我們對目前市場展望、競爭優勢以及正在推進的各項計畫抱持樂觀。此外，隨著年度推進、季度比較基期變得更容易，我們仍預期年對年成長。

With that, let me turn the call back over to Chip for your questions.

接下來，我把電話交回給Chip，開始回答各位的提問。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Operator, we'll now take our first question.

謝謝。（接線員指示）接線員，我們現在開始第一個問題。

This question comes from Ms. Toni Kaplan from Morgan Stanley.

第一個問題來自摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的Toni Kaplan女士。

My first question is on Ratings' margins. Understandably, the weakness in issuance led to the lower Ratings growth in the quarter, but I think margins were just a little bit lighter than what we were expecting. So I just wanted to ask, at what level do you start getting operating leverage in the Ratings segment? Do you need sort of like a mid-single-digit growth to get that leverage there? And just I guess just some additional color on what drove the margins down in the quarter would be helpful.

我的第一個問題是關於評級（Ratings）的利潤率。可以理解，發行量疲弱導致本季評級業務成長較低，但我認為利潤率比我們預期的略低一些。所以我想請教，在評級部門，營運槓桿大概從什麼成長水準開始顯現？是否需要大約中個位數的成長才能在那裡看到槓桿？另外，也希望能多一些說明，本季是什麼因素導致利潤率下滑。

Toni, this is Ewout. If you look at the margin development in the first quarter of Ratings, we are overall satisfied with the results we are seeing. And the reason is that we are also seeing, at the same time, the benefits of our productivity plans. We see expenses coming down by 2% or, in dollar terms, $7 million. And we think that is overall showing good expense discipline within the Ratings business. But in general terms, we see that expense discipline across the enterprise in totality.

Toni，我是Ewout。如果你看評級業務第一季的利潤率變化，我們整體對目前看到的結果感到滿意。原因是我們同時也看到生產力計畫帶來的效益。我們看到費用下降2%，以金額計約700萬美元。我們認為這整體上顯示評級業務具備良好的費用紀律。而且就整體而言，我們在全公司範圍內也都看到這樣的費用紀律。

And clearly, if you look more to the outlook of Ratings in margins, although we don't really guide and provide specifics with respect to margin outlooks by segment, I do want to say that if we look at the remainder of the year, our expectation is that margins should look better compared to the respective quarters a year ago. So overall, we still expect Ratings margins to expand year-over-year 2019 compared to 2018.

另外，若更著眼於評級業務利潤率的展望，雖然我們通常不會按部門提供利潤率展望的具體指引，但我想說的是，若看今年剩餘期間，我們預期利潤率相較去年同期各季應會更好。因此整體而言，我們仍預期2019年評級業務利潤率將較2018年年對年擴張。

Great. And my second question, I wanted to ask about Market Intelligence. You mentioned that change with Kensho being included in there. I guess on a like-for-like basis with the last quarter, was the organic growth up sequentially? I imagine that it's -- Kensho's probably pretty small, so the 8% looked like a pretty good number. And your user growth of 13%, really strong, much faster than the market. And so I just wanted to understand what you attribute sort of the really strong growth rate in the Market Intelligence business, too. And international Market Intelligence was really strong, too, so just any colors on growth there.

很好。第二個問題我想問Market Intelligence。你提到Kensho納入其中的變動。若以與上季可比（like-for-like）的基礎來看，內生成長是否呈現季對季上升？我想Kensho應該相當小，所以8%看起來是個不錯的數字。另外，你們的用戶成長13%非常強勁，遠快於市場。因此我想了解，你們如何歸因Market Intelligence業務如此強勁的成長率。國際Market Intelligence也非常強勁，也請提供一些關於那部分成長的補充說明。

Toni, if you look at the inorganic revenue in the Market Intelligence segment during this quarter, it was, in total, $8 million. That was driven by a couple of acquisitions by Market Intelligence. Think about Panjiva, think about RateWatch as well as some contribution of revenues from Kensho, but that was only a part of that $8 million improvement in revenues on the acquisition line. So overall, it's not a large change. As you will recall, we acquired Kensho in the second quarter of 2018. So next quarter, basically, this is not going to show up in the inorganic category anymore. It's becoming part of normal business as usual.

Toni，如果你看本季市場情報（Market Intelligence）部門的非有機收入，合計為800萬美元。這主要是由市場情報部門的幾項收購所帶動。想想Panjiva、RateWatch，以及Kensho帶來的一些收入貢獻，但那只是這800萬美元、在收購項下收入改善的一部分。因此整體而言，變化不大。如你所記得的，我們在2018年第二季收購了Kensho。所以下一季起，基本上它就不會再出現在非有機類別中了。它將成為日常正常業務的一部分。

The next question is from Alex Kramm of UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀（UBS）的Alex Kramm。

I may be splitting hairs here with my question a little bit, but I think when you talked about the taxes and the stock-based impact there, I think you're now basically saying you have a $0.05 higher bottom line contribution. At the same time, you left your EPS guidance unchanged. Again, I think it's less like than 0.5% of EPS. But just wondering, you sound very positive on the outlook, but clearly, you're not changing anything despite that help. So maybe just a little discussion on the puts and takes there to leave it unchanged.

我的問題可能有點吹毛求疵，但我認為當你談到稅負以及股票為基礎的影響時，你現在基本上是在說，對最終盈餘的貢獻提高了0.05美元。同時，你卻維持每股盈餘（EPS）指引不變。再說一次，我想這不到EPS的0.5%。但我只是想了解，你對展望聽起來很正面，但顯然即使有這個助益，你也沒有調整任何東西。所以也許可以稍微談談，為什麼在這些利多與利空因素（puts and takes）之下仍選擇維持不變。

Alex, this is Ewout. If you look at the improved impact that we are now expecting from stock-based compensation, if you are looking at the guidance we have provided with respect to the effective tax rate for the full year, which is 22.5% to 23.5%, we're still within that range, now more at the lower end of the range. So therefore, overall, we have not adjusted the tax rate range in our guidance.

Alex，我是Ewout。如果你看我們現在預期股票為基礎薪酬帶來的改善影響，並對照我們對全年有效稅率所提供的指引（22.5%到23.5%），我們仍在該區間內，只是現在更接近區間的下緣。因此整體而言，我們沒有調整指引中的稅率區間。

But what I do want to say is compared to 3 months ago, we have become incrementally more confident around our guidance in general. Because you will recall 3 months ago, we came out of a very volatile quarter, and it was very uncertain where the markets would go. If you now look where the markets are at this point in time, the outlook for the next few quarters in the year, the starting point for our subscription businesses with respect to annualized contract value, which is a leading indicator for future revenue for our subscription businesses, if you look at the starting point of ETF AUM in the second quarter of this year compared to a year ago, overall, the health of the debt markets at this point in time, we are incrementally more confident around the outlook and the guidance we have provided compared to 3 months ago.

但我想說的是，與3個月前相比，我們對整體指引的信心有所增加。因為你會記得，3個月前我們剛走出一個非常波動的季度，市場走向非常不確定。如果你看目前市場的位置、今年接下來幾季的展望、我們訂閱型業務在年化合約價值（annualized contract value，這是訂閱型業務未來收入的領先指標）方面的起點、今年第二季ETF資產管理規模（AUM）的起點相較於一年前的水準，以及目前債券市場的整體健康狀況，我們對展望與所提供的指引，相較於3個月前更有信心。

Fair enough. And then secondly, on the Index side, I was a little surprised about the, actually, very good performance on the asset-based fees. Now obviously, it was challenged by the ETF business. But you mentioned some of the other things that helped like the derivatives, I guess, the OTC side and some of the mutual funds. Can you just give us a little bit more detail? It seems like that really helped this quarter. Maybe that's a little bit lumpy, maybe there was some one-timer stuff in there. I just want to make sure that if I think about that stuff going forward, that we don't overestimate it going forward, I guess. Maybe you can break out how big those fees are relative to the ETF side.

了解。第二個問題，在指數（Index）方面，我對資產為基礎的費用（asset-based fees）其實非常好的表現有點意外。當然，ETF業務對此形成壓力。但你提到一些其他助力，例如衍生品，我猜是場外（OTC）那一塊，以及一些共同基金。你能否提供更多細節？看起來這對本季幫助很大。也許這有點不均勻（lumpy），也許其中有一些一次性因素。我只是想確認，當我思考未來時，不要把它高估了。也許你可以拆解一下，這些費用相對於ETF那一端的規模有多大。

Alex, if you look at -- first at the exchange-traded derivative volume, you might recall due to market volatility, there was a very large spike in February 2018. So that's not recurring. Markets have more stabilized. And then you also see the volumes on the derivatives trading coming down. So we are looking more at the first quarter 2018 as an exception, and this is more a normal level quarter, the first quarter of 2019. But we have always said that this business has a natural hedge. So if exchange-traded derivative volume is going down, that's usually because markets are more positive. And then we see the flip side with respect to the asset-based fee levels.

Alex，如果你先看交易所交易的衍生品成交量，你可能記得，由於市場波動，2018年2月出現了非常大的尖峰。所以那不是可重複發生的。市場已經更趨穩定。你也看到衍生品交易量正在下降。因此我們更把2018年第一季視為例外，而2019年第一季則更接近正常水準的一季。但我們一直說，這項業務具有天然避險（natural hedge）。所以如果交易所交易的衍生品成交量下降，通常是因為市場更為正向。接著我們會在資產為基礎費用水準上看到相反的一面。

There is indeed a couple of elements that are going into the asset-based fee level category. Overall, average AUM for ETFs was up 2%, so that helps in a modest way. Then there is also the mutual funds assets under management where we saw a positive increase. There was not so much change with respect to the OTC levels. And there was one particular administrative matter. We have accelerated and implemented improvement in our processes where we have faster reporting of asset levels by certain managers. That is a onetime step-up in revenues, and that will from now on basically be the new normal level going forward. So that is, I think, the other element that goes in the mix here with respect to assets under management fees. But overall, like I said, we are optimistic about the second quarter outlook because the starting point in assets is so much better than we have seen at the beginning of the second quarter of 2018.

確實有幾個因素會影響資產為基礎費用水準這個類別。整體而言，ETF的平均AUM上升了2%，因此帶來些許幫助。另外，我們也看到共同基金的資產管理規模有正向增加。場外（OTC）水準方面變化不大。此外還有一項特定的行政事項。我們加速並落實流程改善，使得某些管理人的資產水準回報更快速。這會帶來一次性的收入跳升，而從現在起基本上會成為未來的新常態水準。因此我認為，這也是資產管理費用組合中的另一個因素。但整體而言，如我所說，我們對第二季展望感到樂觀，因為資產的起點比我們在2018年第二季初所看到的好得多。

The next question comes from Manav Patnaik from Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊（Barclays）的Manav Patnaik。

The first question I had was I was just hoping you could help us understand the mix components of the non-transaction piece of your Ratings business. Like, how much of that is that, the way you described the subscription? And then just within that, I guess I understand why Ratings Evaluation is down. Can you just help me understand what's going on with CRISIL?

我的第一個問題是，希望你能幫我們理解評級（Ratings）業務中非交易（non-transaction）部分的組合構成。例如，其中有多少是你所描述的那種訂閱型收入？另外，在這之中，我想我理解為什麼評級評估（Ratings Evaluation）會下滑。你能否幫我理解CRISIL這邊發生了什麼事？

Manav, non-transaction revenue was down $15 million year-over-year, of which $9 million was FX-related. So that's clearly the largest driver of non-transaction revenue. Then the second driver here was Rating Evaluation Services. That is very much linked to M&A activity in the market. That was relatively modest, and therefore, also the rest fees and revenues were a bit lower this quarter compared to a year ago.

Manav，非交易收入年減1,500萬美元，其中900萬美元與外匯（FX）相關。所以這顯然是非交易收入的最大驅動因素。第二個因素是評級評估服務（Rating Evaluation Services）。這與市場上的併購（M&A）活動高度相關。該活動相對溫和，因此本季相關費用與收入也比一年前略低。

And then what we see with CRISIL is a couple of impacts. First, impact of foreign exchange based on the difference in foreign exchange rates from a year ago between the Indian rupee and the U.S. dollar. With respect to the research and analytics business, we see revenue coming down due to some market headwinds, but that is then offset by the Indian Ratings revenue, which is actually up in a healthy way. But those are some of the elements that are happening within CRISIL.

至於CRISIL，我們看到幾項影響。第一，是外匯影響，源自一年前印度盧比與美元之間匯率差異所造成的變動。在研究與分析（research and analytics）業務方面，我們看到因一些市場逆風而使收入下滑，但這被印度評級（Indian Ratings）收入所抵銷，而後者其實呈現健康成長。以上是CRISIL內部正在發生的一些因素。

Overall, we will expect to see maybe quarter-over-quarter slow and modest fluctuations for non-transaction revenue. But we still expect, over a longer period of time, a normal trend of growth of non-transaction somewhere low to mid-single digits.

整體而言，我們預期非交易收入可能會出現一些季對季較慢且溫和的波動。但從較長時間來看，我們仍預期非交易收入的正常成長趨勢約為低到中個位數百分比。

Got it. Okay. That's very helpful. And then maybe just on the balance sheet, your leverage target or your current leverage is pretty close to your target. Just any thoughts on what the plans are there with the cash and the flexibility you have.

了解。好的。這非常有幫助。另外可能想問一下資產負債表，你們的槓桿目標或目前槓桿水準已相當接近目標。對於現金運用以及你們所擁有的彈性，接下來有什麼規劃或想法嗎？

Yes. We have, of course, have a very clear statement with respect to our capital philosophy and our capital targets. And we are disciplined around that, and we are committed to stay within the targets that we have set. So at a point, we will fall below the floor of our leverage range. We will certainly, at that point, start to consider adding new leverage to our balance sheet.

是的。當然，我們就資本理念與資本目標已有非常明確的說明。我們在這方面保持紀律，並承諾維持在我們所設定的目標範圍內。因此在某個時間點，我們將會低於槓桿區間的下限。屆時，我們肯定會開始考慮在資產負債表上增加新的槓桿。

What we'll do with the proceeds, I think, is still to be determined. I think you know our first priority is to reinvest in the business. We are investing already this year in a stepped-up way in organic initiatives. You know all of those, about ESG and China and technology and Kensho and other areas. We could also use the proceeds for inorganic investments. We will continue to remain very disciplined from a valuation perspective. And then, of course, the third option we have is return of capital to shareholders. So still to be determined, but we have clear targets with respect to our capital philosophy. And you may expect us to continue to be committed to those targets.

至於我們會如何運用這些資金，我認為仍有待決定。我想你知道，我們的第一優先是再投資於業務。今年我們已經以加速的方式投入於內生成長的各項計畫。你也都知道那些，包括ESG、中國、科技、Kensho以及其他領域。我們也可能將資金用於外延式投資。從估值角度來看，我們將持續保持高度紀律。然後，當然，我們的第三個選項是向股東返還資本。因此仍有待決定，但就我們的資本理念而言，我們有明確的目標。你可以預期我們會持續致力於達成這些目標。

Our next question comes from Tim McHugh from William Blair.

下一個問題來自William Blair的Tim McHugh。

Just wanted to ask on Platts, the selling environment. I guess are you seeing any improvement? And I guess an update on the analytical solutions that you've tried to develop over the last few years, the success with selling those to improve the growth of Platts.

我想請教關於Platts的銷售環境。我想問你們是否看到任何改善？另外也想請更新一下你們過去幾年嘗試開發的分析型解決方案，以及銷售這些產品以提升Platts成長的成效如何。

Tim, this is Doug. Let me take that one. Well, first of all, as in the past, people have always looked to see if there was any kind of major correlation of Platts with commodity prices. And as we've always said, there's some kind of a range, I'm not giving what exactly it is. But if prices get too high, sometimes it squeezes some of the buyers; if they get too low, it squeezes some of the sellers, we sometimes see. But we've been in a very comfortable range in the price of oil, the price of natural gas. We've also been developing the new products, which we've been highlighting, like the JKM marker, rebalancing the Brent components, et cetera.

Tim，我是Doug。我來回答這題。首先，一如以往，大家總是會看Platts與商品價格之間是否存在某種重大相關性。而我們也一直說，確實存在某個區間，但我不會說具體是多少。但如果價格太高，有時會擠壓部分買方；如果價格太低，有時會擠壓部分賣方，我們有時會看到這種情況。不過目前油價與天然氣價格都處在一個非常舒適的區間。我們也一直在開發並重點介紹新產品，例如JKM指標、重新平衡Brent的組成要素等等。

So we see that we're selling into a pretty benign -- actually, maybe neutral to positive environment for Platts. And as we've mentioned in the past, this is very much about relationships and getting out to have a commercial approach to how we're dealing with the markets. So we're seeing what we would call a neutral to positive environment.

因此我們看到，Platts所面對的銷售環境相當溫和——實際上可能是中性偏正面。而且如我們過去提到的，這很大程度取決於關係經營，以及以商業化方式走出去與市場互動。所以我們所看到的是一個我們稱之為中性偏正面的環境。

On the analytical solutions, this continues to be part of our growth plans and investment plans. We had made, as you know, acquisitions in the last 2 years to build out a data set. Those data sets are included in products that we actually have as well as on their own basis. One of the early wins I'd like to mention is that as you've heard us talk about the S&P Global platform, which is an initiative we have to have a single technology base to be able to provide our information in the market, Platts is piloting a new set of materials that they're delivering to the market, which used to be via PDF.

至於分析型解決方案，這仍然是我們成長計畫與投資計畫的一部分。如你所知，我們在過去兩年進行了收購，以擴充資料集。這些資料集既被納入我們現有的產品中，也可以作為獨立產品提供。我想提到的一個早期成果是：正如你們聽我們談到的S&P Global平台——這是我們推動的計畫，目標是建立單一的技術底座，以便向市場提供資訊——Platts正在試點一套新的內容交付材料，過去這些內容是透過PDF提供的。

And now through our subscription services, they're able to deliver all that information online, where instead of seeing a PDF, a customer is able now to download the information, build in their spreadsheets, using their analysis, et cetera. So we're laying a very strong foundation for the vision of Platts analytically. And one of the key elements in that was building out this S&P Global platform, so we can deliver those kinds of solutions.

現在透過我們的訂閱服務，他們能夠把所有資訊在線上交付；客戶不再只是看到PDF，而是可以下載資訊、匯入自己的試算表，並運用自身的分析等。因此，我們正在為Platts在分析能力方面的願景奠定非常堅實的基礎。其中一個關鍵要素就是建置這個S&P Global平台，讓我們能交付這類解決方案。

Okay. And then just on the investment spending within, I guess in particular, Market Intelligence and Kensho. You maybe commented it builds as the year progresses. Can you help us think about the subsequent years, I guess, 2020, 2021? Is this an expense, I guess, spending or project level that continues to build, stays at this elevated level? Or do we start to see savings in terms of data ingested cost and so forth as we go out a year or 2 where, I guess, you get a reversion relative to this, I guess, weight against the margins?

好的。另外關於投資支出，我想特別是Market Intelligence與Kensho。你們可能提到支出會隨著年度推進而增加。能否協助我們思考後續年度，例如2020、2021？這樣的費用/支出或專案層級會持續增加、維持在較高水準嗎？或者在未來一到兩年，我們會開始看到例如資料匯入成本等方面的節省，從而相對於目前對利潤率的壓力有所回歸？

Tim, if you look at the next few years for those business cases where we're investing in Market Intelligence, a part of the current expense for this year is really for the build-up phase, and we don't expect those to recur. A part is really for operations and a setup of new organizations and new products we will provide to the market. So those expenses will remain going forward.

Tim，如果你看未來幾年我們在Market Intelligence的那些投資商業案例，今年的部分費用其實是用於建置期，我們不預期這些會重複發生。另一部分則是用於營運，以及建立新的組織與我們將提供給市場的新產品。因此，這部分費用未來仍會持續。

I think the biggest difference that you should expect to see is that those initiatives will start to drop off revenues over the next few years; some a little faster, some a little bit further out in time. For example, we have always said that the Chinese investments are more in the horizon of 3 to 5 years. But some others in Market Intelligence, the payoff in terms of revenue could be a bit faster. So there, you should expect the biggest change that these investments we are doing this year will ultimately lead to an improvement of the organic growth in Market Intelligence going forward.

我認為你應該預期看到的最大差異是：這些計畫在未來幾年將開始帶來收入；有些會快一些，有些則需要更長時間。例如，我們一直說對中國的投資更偏向3到5年的時間跨度。但Market Intelligence中的其他一些項目，在收入回報方面可能會更快。因此，你應該預期最大的變化是：我們今年所做的這些投資，最終將在未來推動Market Intelligence的內生成長改善。

The next question is from Mr. Jeff Silber from BMO Capital.

下一個問題來自BMO Capital的Jeff Silber先生。

Doug, when you started the presentation, you talked about the markets having come a long way since the depths of December. I'm just curious in your conversations with issuers, are they thinking the same things? I'm just wondering in terms of the outlook, there still seems to be a lot of uncertainty out there. If you could provide some color, that would be great.

Doug，你在簡報一開始提到市場自12月低點以來已經走了很長一段路。我很好奇，在你與發行人的對話中，他們是否也有同樣的看法？我想就前景而言，外界似乎仍存在很多不確定性。如果你能提供一些補充說明就太好了。

Yes. There definitely is a lot of uncertainty out there. I'd basically divide this into 2, the positive as well as then some of the uncertainties. On the positive side, business sentiment is still strong, consumer sentiment is strong, banking balance sheets are very strong. There's abundant capital. The accommodated policies of the central banks around the world have continued in place with very cheap capital and then in Europe, in particular, flooded liquidity into the markets. So there's very, very strong conditions.

是的。外界確實存在很多不確定性。我基本上會把它分成兩部分：正面因素以及一些不確定性。在正面方面，企業信心仍然強勁，消費者信心也很強，銀行的資產負債表非常穩健。資本相當充裕。全球各地央行的寬鬆政策仍在延續，資金成本非常低；而在歐洲尤其是向市場注入了大量流動性。因此整體條件非常、非常強勁。

And then we've also seen economic growth. Even though it slowed down a little bit in China and Europe, the U.S. just had a very strong quarter. And our own estimations are for a slight slowdown in global growth from last year but still a global growth. And we also see a low probability, about 20% or so probability of a recession in the U.S. in the next 12 months, which is actually a very low level.

此外，我們也看到經濟成長。儘管中國與歐洲的成長略有放緩，美國剛剛出現一個非常強勁的季度。我們自己的估計是，全球成長相較去年會略為放緩，但仍將維持全球成長。我們也認為未來12個月美國發生衰退的機率偏低，大約20%左右，這其實是非常低的水準。

Now what are some of the challenges or uncertainties? Clearly, there's uncertainties around trade. There are still -- the markets are still waiting to see what's going to happen with the U.S.-China trade negotiations. European markets are still quite weak, Southern Europe, in particular. And even though Brexit is something that we were panicking about a few weeks ago and it went away for 6 months, Brexit still needs to be resolved. So you still have some political issues and trade issues that create some of the uncertainty. And then as I said, Europe is also -- continues to be a pretty weak area.

那麼目前有哪些挑戰或不確定性呢？很明顯，貿易方面存在不確定性。市場仍在等待觀察美中貿易談判將會如何發展。歐洲市場仍然相當疲弱，尤其是南歐。而且即使英國脫歐是我們幾週前還在恐慌、但後來又延後了 6 個月的事情，英國脫歐仍需要解決。因此你仍然有一些政治議題與貿易議題，造成部分不確定性。另外如我所說，歐洲也仍然——持續是一個相當疲弱的區域。

Okay. Appreciate the color. And Ewout, in terms of my follow-up, I know you haven't disclosed the potential details regarding the sale of the SPIAS business. But can you give us an order of magnitude roughly how large that business is, so we can take that out of our model?

好的。感謝你提供的補充說明。Ewout，關於我的追問，我知道你們尚未揭露出售 SPIAS 業務的潛在細節。但你能否大致給我們一個量級，說明那項業務規模有多大，這樣我們可以把它從模型中剔除？

Yes. We have not disclosed those details. But overall, you should see that, that is a relatively small business for us. So not a material or large impact on the results and the difference in your models. I would say relatively small.

是的。我們尚未揭露那些細節。但整體而言，你應該會看到，那對我們來說是一項相對較小的業務。因此對業績以及你們模型中的差異不會造成重大或很大的影響。我會說相對較小。

Okay. And that's happening at the end of the second part, is that what you said?

好的。那是發生在第二部分的末尾，是你剛才說的嗎？

Yes. We are closing somewhere mid of this year. So if you model this, you should probably take it out for the second half of this year.

是的。我們會在今年年中左右完成交割。所以如果你要建模，可能應該在今年下半年把它剔除。

Our next question comes from Mr. George Tong from Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛（Goldman Sachs）的 George Tong 先生。

Your overall global issuance forecast for the full year is unchanged, down less than 1%. Drilling deeper into the individual categories of debt, can you discuss how your issuance expectations for the year have changed? And what implications there would be from a pricing and mix perspective?

你們對全年全球發行量的整體預測維持不變，下降不到 1%。若更深入到各個債務類別，你能否談談你們對今年發行量預期有哪些變化？以及從定價與組合（mix）的角度會有哪些影響？

George, this is Doug. As we've looked at this and we've made a couple of quick adjustments to it, looking at what we see from the pipelines, from speaking with debt underwriters and investment banks, by looking at what we see from issuers as well as taking a look at what we see in terms of credit conditions and global markets, as you see, it's relatively unchanged.

George，我是 Doug。我們在檢視這件事並做了幾項快速調整時，會看我們從承銷管線（pipeline）看到的情況、與債券承銷商及投資銀行的交流、也會看發行人的狀況，同時也會檢視信用環境與全球市場的表現；如你所見，整體而言變化不大。

There is a slight, slight change in what we expect: for corporates to be up a little bit, for financial institutions to be down a little bit, for public finance to be down a little bit. But net-net, the overall change is very similar to what we had before. And the differences across those different asset classes and different types of industries are so minor, it doesn't really have much of a change in what we look forward to in terms of revenues and our revenue mix.

我們的預期有些微、些微的變化：企業債可能小幅上升，金融機構可能小幅下降，公共融資可能小幅下降。但整體來看，總體變動與我們先前的預期非常接近。而不同資產類別與不同產業之間的差異都非常小，因此對我們在收入與收入組合上的展望，並不會造成太大的改變。

Got it. That's helpful. And then looking at operating margins at Platts, they've declined in the quarter despite reasonable revenue growth. Can you talk about what drove the margin decline? And how you expect profitability at Platts to evolve over the course of the year?

了解。這很有幫助。另外看 Platts 的營業利潤率，儘管收入成長合理，但本季利潤率仍下滑。你能談談是什麼因素導致利潤率下滑嗎？以及你預期 Platts 的獲利能力在今年接下來的時間會如何演變？

George, that was mostly driven by timing of certain expenses. So we have particularly some expenses related to initiatives and events that were a bit higher this quarter. We don't expect that to continue for the remainder of the year. So therefore, from a margins perspective, we are very comfortable with respect to the outlook of the margins for Platts, and we still expect that the margins will develop in a favorable way for the next 3 quarters compared to a year ago.

George，那主要是由於某些費用的認列時點所致。因此我們有一些與計畫與活動相關的費用，在本季略高。我們不預期這種情況會在今年剩餘期間持續。因此從利潤率角度來看，我們對 Platts 的利潤率展望非常有信心，並且仍預期接下來 3 個季度的利潤率，相較去年同期會朝有利方向發展。

Mr. Joseph Foresi from Cantor Fitzgerald.

下一位是 Cantor Fitzgerald 的 Joseph Foresi 先生。

This is Drew Kootman on for Joe. I had a quick question on China. You mentioned you had a seminar in Beijing. And I was just wondering if you could provide any updates or give us a better understanding of the risks you may be seeing in the region.

我是 Drew Kootman，代替 Joe 發問。我有一個關於中國的簡短問題。你提到你們在北京辦了一場研討會。我想請問你能否提供一些最新進展，或讓我們更了解你們在該地區可能看到的風險？

Well, first of all, thanks for the question, Drew. Nice to hear you today. We opened up our credit rating agency in China officially on March 26 with a seminar. We felt it was valuable to launch this with an approach to having relationships with issuers, with investors, with market players, with debt underwriters, financial institutions, et cetera, by introducing them to our employees, by talking about our methodology and talking about how we're heading into the market with this very transparent approach to credit ratings.

首先，謝謝你的提問，Drew。今天很高興聽到你的聲音。我們在 3 月 26 日透過一場研討會，正式在中國成立我們的信用評等機構。我們認為，以與發行人、投資人、市場參與者、債務承銷商、金融機構等建立關係的方式來啟動是很有價值的；我們向他們介紹我們的員工，說明我們的方法論，並談到我們將以非常透明的信用評等方式進入市場。

Since then, we continue to see customers. We're now up to having had over 250 calls with relationships that we're starting to build, to open up the rating agency and to be able to do more and more issuance there. We have not done an issuance so far.

自那之後，我們持續與客戶接觸。目前我們已經進行了超過 250 通電話，與我們正在建立的關係互動，以推動評等機構的運作，並在當地能夠進行越來越多的發行。截至目前我們尚未完成任何一筆發行。

When it comes to some of the risks when we look at China, clearly, there's the discussion about the level of growth in China and the type of growth that China has been developing. As you know, a few years ago, China was very much an investment-led, export-oriented economy. They've shifted more towards a consumer-oriented consumption economy with a lot more investment in the domestic markets.

談到我們看中國時的一些風險，顯然市場在討論中國的成長水準，以及中國正在形成的成長型態。如你所知，幾年前中國很大程度上是投資帶動、出口導向的經濟體。他們已轉向更偏消費者導向的消費型經濟，同時在國內市場投入更多投資。

We think that there are a few sectors, which we're watching carefully there, which would be the -- a couple of the property sectors. In addition, there are some municipal debt, which has been growing, but we don't see any major credit bubbles right now in China. If we did, we would raise those. But we think we're off to a great start and very enthusiastic reception from the market players as well as excellent relationships with the key regulators and official market players that we need to be working with to ensure the success of our Ratings business in China.

我們認為有幾個產業我們正在密切關注，其中包括——幾個房地產相關領域。此外，地方政府債務也在成長，但我們目前並未在中國看到任何重大的信用泡沫。如果有，我們會提出警示。但我們認為目前開局非常順利，市場參與者的反應非常熱烈；同時我們也與關鍵監管機構及必要的官方市場參與者建立了很好的關係，以確保我們在中國的評等業務能夠成功。

Great. And then you talked about Kensho a couple of questions ago. So as you're seeing -- any updates on the progress that you're seeing from Kensho and RateWatch and just anything moving forward?

很好。另外你在前幾個問題提到了 Kensho。所以就你們所看到的——Kensho 和 RateWatch 的進展是否有任何更新？以及接下來還有什麼值得關注的？

We're still very excited about Kensho and what Kensho is doing for S&P Global as a catalyst for innovation and change in our thinking with respect to our business models, our proposition to the markets. There's new initiatives going on. We have actually a very interesting initiative going on in Platts at this moment, and there's a lot of enthusiasm from the Platts leadership team around the implementation of that initiative as well. And we are continuing on some of the implementation of the other initiatives that we told you before. Think about some of the new initiatives around search, the Omnisearch on the platform that we expect to introduce in a beta form later this year.

我們仍然對 Kensho 以及 Kensho 對 S&P Global 所做的事情感到非常振奮；它作為創新催化劑，也促使我們在商業模式與對市場的價值主張方面改變思維。目前有新的計畫正在進行。我們此刻在 Platts 其實有一項非常有意思的計畫在推動，Platts 的領導團隊對該計畫的落地也充滿熱情。同時，我們也持續推進先前向各位提過的其他計畫的落實。例如一些與搜尋相關的新計畫，包括平台上的 Omnisearch，我們預期在今年稍晚以 beta 形式推出。

With respect to the financials update and, particularly, with respect to value-creation update, we're planning to give you more details once a year. We did that at the end of the fourth quarter of 2018, so we will provide you more details on that by the end of this year again.

至於財務更新，特別是價值創造（value-creation）的更新，我們計畫一年提供一次更詳細的資訊。我們在 2018 年第四季末已經做過一次，因此我們會在今年年底再一次提供更多細節。

This question comes from Craig Huber from Huber Research Partners.

這個問題來自 Huber Research Partners 的 Craig Huber。

Doug, I wanted to just focus on China if we can for your Ratings business. Just curious how big of an effort you guys have rolled out there. I guess the number of analysts, if you could share that, that you have in that market right now. I believe globally, you have probably something like 1,400, 1,500 analysts in Ratings around the world. Can you just clarify that? But as you sort of think of the China market from a Ratings standpoint, S&P standpoint, how big of an opportunity do you think this is kind of going forward here? How do you -- what's your general sense, how you think it might scale up this calendar year and next year as you sort of talk about -- talk with market participants and stuff?

Doug，如果可以的話，我想把焦點放在你們評級業務在中國的情況。我只是好奇你們在那邊推動了多大規模的投入。我想知道目前在那個市場的分析師人數，如果你方便分享的話。我相信在全球範圍內，你們在評級業務方面大概有約1,400到1,500名分析師遍布世界各地。你能澄清一下嗎？另外，從評級的角度、從S&P的角度來看中國市場，你認為未來這會是一個多大的機會？你怎麼看——你整體的感覺是什麼？當你與市場參與者等交流時，你認為今年與明年這個業務可能會如何擴張？

Yes. Thanks, Craig. Well, first of all, just a brief comment on how we ramp this up because I think that's important. As we've been going to this market for the last few years trying to build up a relationship to understand the dynamics of the domestic market, we wanted to make sure that we built this out with a consolidated approach, with a long-term view.

是的。謝謝你，Craig。首先，我想先簡短談一下我們如何把這件事加速推進，因為我認為這很重要。過去幾年我們進入這個市場、嘗試建立關係以理解國內市場的動態時，我們希望確保以整合式的方法、以長期視角來建置這項業務。

What we did is we originally started with 10 veteran S&P Global analysts who are Mandarin speakers that we brought from offshore, and they spent a month building out criteria, working on how we're going to be able to rate in the market using domestic criteria, domestic understanding of bankruptcy laws, of recovery laws, et cetera. And then they back-tested 400 credits to ensure that we had the right kind of criteria in place. As we were doing that, we went out to the market and hired 21 more analyst.

我們的做法是，一開始先由10位資深的S&P Global分析師打頭陣，他們會說中文（普通話），我們把他們從海外調派過來；他們花了一個月建立評級準則，並研究我們將如何在市場中使用本土準則、對國內破產法與回收（追償）法律等的本土理解來進行評級。接著他們對400個信用標的進行回測，以確保我們具備正確的準則體系。在此同時，我們也到市場上再招聘了21位分析師。

So right now, we have 31 analysts covering the Chinese market. They've covered 40 different sectors and different types of sectors and subsectors, and they've done 400-plus initial credit reviews that they've done. And now with that, our sales teams are out in the market discussing what that means and building up those relationships.

所以目前我們有31位分析師覆蓋中國市場。他們覆蓋了40個不同產業，以及不同類型的產業與次產業，並已完成400多個初始信用審查。在此基礎上，我們的銷售團隊也正在市場上溝通這些工作的意義，並建立這些關係。

Now just in terms of similar size, you've heard this before, it's the second largest bond market in the world after the U.S. It's close to bypassing Japan also on the public side as well. They have -- most of the bonds are held by banks and financial institutions. They're still not necessarily into a pension system in individual holders, and only 2% of the bonds are held offshore by foreign investors.

就市場規模而言，你之前也聽過：它是全球第二大債券市場，僅次於美國。在公募市場方面，它也接近超越日本。他們——大多數債券由銀行與金融機構持有。

So we think that the dynamics of the market is shifting from a short-term bond market. A typical bond is about a 3-year duration, more or less, as opposed to U.S., which is, depending on which market you look at, 7- to 11-year duration. It's a very short-term duration. It's still being held by financial institutions with very little international presence. We think that all of that is going to change. And then as that changes, this is the opportunity for Ratings.

因此我們認為，市場動態正從一個偏短期的債券市場開始轉變。典型債券的存續期間大約是3年左右；相較之下，美國則是——視你看的市場而定——約7到11年的存續期間。這是一個非常短久期的市場。目前仍主要由金融機構持有，國際參與度很低。我們認為這些都將改變。而隨著這些改變發生，這就是評級業務的機會。

We have not built out a very aggressive revenue model for the first year. We think this is an investment year. And we think that over time, we're going to build out a revenue model. I'd prefer to come back to you as the year progresses with some more information that could be either financial or directional because we're really right now just at the ground floor of getting this thing off and running.

我們第一年並沒有建立非常激進的營收模型。我們認為這是一個投資年。我們也認為隨著時間推進，我們會逐步建立起營收模型。我希望在今年進展到一定程度後再回來跟你更新更多資訊，可能是財務面的或方向性的，因為目前我們真的還在把這件事從零開始啟動與運轉的階段。

This question will come from Mr. Peter Appert from Piper Jaffray.

下一個問題來自Piper Jaffray的Peter Appert先生。

So Doug, I was just interested in your thoughts on, particularly for the second quarter what you're seeing in terms of activity in the debt market. And related to that, I'm wondering if refi activity is impacted by the more stable rate environment.

Doug，我想聽聽你的看法，特別是第二季你在債務市場活動方面看到的情況。另外，我也想知道在利率環境較為穩定的情況下，再融資活動是否受到影響。

Yes. So what we've seen so far in the second quarter, it's only been a month, it's similar to the kind of mix we saw throughout the first part of the year. Europe is still weak. The European markets were very weak in the first quarter. In fact, if you look at the total market in Europe, financial institutions was down 25% in the first quarter. Total Europe was down 8%.

是的。到目前為止，我們在第二季看到的情況——畢竟才過了一個月——與今年前段時間看到的組合大致相似。歐洲仍然疲弱。歐洲市場在第一季非常疲弱。事實上，如果你看歐洲整體市場，金融機構在第一季下滑了25%。歐洲總體下滑了8%。

In Europe, the investment grade was down 12.5%, high yield was down 25%. And we've seen that continue. So you have very specific conditions in Europe that are a little bit different than the rest of the world partially because of the economy has slowed down, there's some uncertainty and then also you have a new round of liquidity being pumped into the banks by the ECB. It's an LTRO-like situation in very, very low interest rates.

在歐洲，投資級下滑12.5%，高收益下滑25%。而我們看到這種情況仍在延續。因此歐洲有一些非常特定的條件，與世界其他地區略有不同，部分原因是經濟放緩、存在一些不確定性；此外，歐洲央行（ECB）也正向銀行注入新一輪流動性。這是一種類似LTRO的情況，利率非常、非常低。

So putting Europe aside and coming to the U.S., what we saw in the U.S. in the first quarter was, as you know, there was a very -- the bank loan activity was down over 26% on new bank loan, but high-yield issuance was actually up 6%. It's not quite apples-for-apples, but it is the markets that those types of borrowers will go to. They'll decide if they're going to the fixed income market or the loan market.

先把歐洲放一邊，回到美國。我們在美國第一季看到的是——如你所知——銀行貸款活動非常……新發銀行貸款下滑超過26%，但高收益債發行量實際上上升了6%。這不完全是同類可比，但這些借款人會在這些市場之間做選擇。他們會決定是去固定收益市場，還是去貸款市場。

We have seen in April some refinancing starting to pop in as well as new issuance, and we've seen April was not a great month either. But overall though, we did see a lot of the activity with people coming back to market for refinancing.

我們在4月看到一些再融資以及新發行開始出現，而4月也不是一個很好的月份。但整體而言，我們確實看到不少活動是市場參與者回到市場進行再融資。

One last trend that we mentioned, Ewout mentioned in his comments that M&A activity was weak during the first quarter -- actually, in the fourth quarter. And the first quarter this year was -- is -- the pipeline has actually started looking a lot better when you look at deals announced. So one of the charts that I track, which looks at deals announced, has actually started popping up, which is usually a good indicator for our Ratings Evaluation Services as well as issuance down the road.

最後一個趨勢我們也提到過：Ewout在他的評論中提到，併購（M&A）活動在第一季疲弱——其實是在第四季。而今年第一季——也就是——從已宣布的交易來看，管線其實開始好轉。所以我追蹤的一張圖表（看的是已宣布交易）已經開始上升，這通常是我們評級評估服務（Ratings Evaluation Services）以及未來發行活動的良好指標。

Got it. And then just on Market Intelligence quickly. Doug, your performance, as mentioned earlier, is quite a bit better than what we're seeing from the industry overall. Is it possible to sort of delineate how much of that is a function of share gains versus some of the product line extensions you've been offering?

了解。接著快速問一下Market Intelligence。Doug，你們的表現如先前提到的，明顯優於整體產業的表現。是否可以大致拆解一下，其中有多少是市占率提升所帶來的， versus 你們所提供的一些產品線延伸？

I don't have a precise answer for you to give you what's from share gains. But what I could tell you is that a lot of our growth, and you saw it in the charts today, is coming from what I would call the newer or nontraditional products. We had strong growth on the desktop, which you saw, but we had even stronger growth from data feeds and from credit services and things that we see are where the demands are growing from our users. The users are looking for more and more granular data and new ways to incorporate data into their own modeling. And so that trend is something that I think we're investing in, and we think it's going to continue going forward. But I don't have any specific comments about share gain.

我沒有一個精確的答案可以告訴你有多少來自市占率提升。但我可以告訴你的是，我們很多成長——你今天也在圖表中看到——來自我所稱的較新或非傳統產品。我們在桌面端（desktop）有強勁成長，你也看到了；但來自資料饋送（data feeds）、信用服務（credit services）以及其他我們看到使用者需求正在成長的領域，成長更強。使用者正在尋求越來越細緻的資料，以及將資料納入他們自身模型的新方法。因此我認為這個趨勢是我們正在投入的方向，而且我們認為未來會持續。但關於市占率提升，我沒有任何具體評論。

The only thing I would add is that if you think about our customer base versus some of our competitors, we're much less dependent on Wall Street. So I think that also plays into the numbers as well.

我唯一想補充的是，如果你把我們的客戶基礎與一些競爭對手相比，我們對華爾街的依賴程度要低得多。所以我認為這也反映在數字上。

Mr. Bill Warmington from Wells Fargo.

來自富國銀行（Wells Fargo）的 Bill Warmington 先生。

So a question for you about the competitive landscape. One of your main Ratings competitors has been aggressively adding commercial real estate data assets with a view to leveraging that data throughout Ratings. I think in Reis, CompStak and so on. Is that an area of focus for you as well, something you need to have in your arsenal?

我想就競爭格局向您提個問題。你們在評級業務的主要競爭對手之一，正積極增加商用不動產資料資產，意圖在整個評級業務中運用這些資料。我想到的是 Reis、CompStak 等等。這也是你們的重點方向嗎？也就是說，這是否是你們也需要納入武器庫的能力？

As we've looked at what we need to have to enhance and improve and continually update our approach to Ratings as well as all of our analytical products is right now, our major emphasis is on ESG. As you can see, we believe that there is an exploding demand. We don't know how it's defined yet or what direction it's going, but we think it's exploding for ESG data and content. So this is where, this quarter, you saw that we launched -- or last quarter, in the first quarter, we launched 2 significant benchmarks for ESG products, which we're out working on and building up. When it comes to specific data, whether it would be real estate or if it's information about interest rates or credit recoveries, et cetera, we believe that we either have or have access to adequate information to fulfill our duty to produce excellent ratings.

就我們評估為了強化、改善並持續更新我們的評級方法，以及所有分析產品所需要具備的要素而言，目前我們最主要的著力點在 ESG。如各位所見，我們相信需求正在爆發式成長。我們尚不確定它最終會如何被定義或將朝哪個方向發展，但我們認為對 ESG 資料與內容的需求正在爆發。因此，本季你們看到我們推出——或是上一季，也就是第一季——我們推出了 2 個重要的 ESG 產品基準，目前正在推進並持續建置。至於特定資料，不論是不動產，或是利率、信用回收率等資訊，我們相信我們已擁有或可取得足夠資訊，以履行我們提供卓越評級的責任。

Okay. And then a question based on some of Ewout's comment about the first quarter ETF inflows. You mentioned that they had come in at $97 billion, but the U.S. equity flows -- inflows are about $7 billion. I just wanted to get your thoughts on whether you saw that as a short-term phenomenon or more of a longer-term trend.

好的。接著根據 Ewout 對第一季 ETF 資金流入的評論再問一題。你提到資金流入為 970 億美元，但美國股票的資金流——流入約為 70 億美元。我想請教你是否認為這是短期現象，或是較長期的趨勢。

Bill, this is clearly short-term. We see always some fluctuations in flows going in different asset categories, either from a geographical perspective or from an asset class perspective. Overall, these movements can differ quarter-by-quarter. But we are looking at the overall ETF market share that we are having of the overall assets under management that are using our indices. That's close to 30%, and that number is basically stable already for a longer period of time. So our market share continue to be good. We're leading with that market share, and this is really a fluctuation period-over-period. If we look at flows, for example, to U.S. equities in the month of April, we have seen that those are actually pretty robust. So again, this can really move around a bit.

Bill，這顯然是短期的。我們一向會看到資金流在不同資產類別之間出現波動，可能是從地理區域角度，或從資產類別角度來看。整體而言，這些變動可能每一季都不同。但我們關注的是 ETF 市場中，使用我們指數的整體資產管理規模（AUM）所對應的市占率。這接近 30%，而且這個數字在較長一段時間內基本上都很穩定。因此，我們的市占率仍然表現良好。我們以該市占率居於領先，這確實是逐期的波動。例如，如果看 4 月份流向美國股票的資金，我們看到其實相當強勁。所以再說一次，這些數字確實可能會有些變動。

We will now take our final question from Shlomo Rosenbaum from Stifel.

接下來我們將進行最後一個問題，來自 Stifel 的 Shlomo Rosenbaum。

Doug, maybe you can just elaborate a little bit more on the Kensho investment. It's going to be 30% of planned investment. Can you talk about any potentially new initiatives that might be going on right now or the things that you want to highlight now? So is it people costs? And I just want to be clear that this -- I don't think it's the retention bonuses included in there, but can you just clarify that?

Doug，也許你可以再多談一點 Kensho 的投資。這將占計畫投資的 30%。你能談談目前可能正在進行的任何新計畫，或是你現在想要強調的重點嗎？所以這是人員成本嗎？另外我想確認一下——我不認為其中包含留任獎金，但你能否澄清？

Yes. So first of all, Shlomo, thanks for asking the question. We're really thrilled and very pleased with having made the Kensho acquisition and all of the difference that it's making across the company. We have traditionally had a couple of areas that we've highlighted, which we're data-linking. We talked about enhanced search capabilities and omnisearch capability. Ewout just mentioned something that's going on with Platts where we have now a team embedded in Platts working on the market on close process to find different ways to look at the value of information and to get it in a faster way as well as identify potential opportunities to continue to improve our business model.

是的。首先，Shlomo，謝謝你提出這個問題。我們對完成 Kensho 的收購以及它在全公司帶來的各種改變感到非常振奮，也非常滿意。我們傳統上有幾個一直強調的領域，也就是我們所說的資料串聯（data-linking）。我們談過強化的搜尋能力以及全域搜尋（omnisearch）能力。Ewout 剛才也提到 Platts 正在進行的一些工作：我們現在有一個團隊進駐 Platts，針對 market on close 流程運作，尋找不同方式來看待資訊價值、以更快的方式取得資訊，同時也辨識潛在機會，以持續改善我們的商業模式。

And if I use those as a few of the examples, those are -- there's activities like that now going on in Ratings and Indices. And also, even some of our corporate functions, they're helping us look at some of the ways we manage the business overall. And as a result of the early wins that we've had, we decided that it's valuable to invest in our businesses for growth opportunities, and this is where the investments are coming from Kensho.

如果我把這些當作幾個例子，類似的活動目前也正在評級（Ratings）與指數（Indices）部門進行。此外，甚至在我們的一些公司職能部門，他們也在協助我們檢視整體經營管理方式。由於我們已取得一些早期成果，我們決定投資於業務以把握成長機會是有價值的，而這些投資正是來自 Kensho。

So they're related to investments in growth. They're related to where we're going to be, either opening new markets or launching new products, where we think that Kensho can help us with that. Some of those expenses are people, and some of those expenses are additional computing capacity or capacity for data tools, et cetera. But all of them are based off of early results that we're very comfortable with, the progress with Kensho. And they're all geared towards growth. Although I would say there is -- some of the data work that's going on will potentially lead to productivity as well. So we're not just putting productivity behind us, but a lot of this is being geared towards growth opportunities.

因此，這些都與成長投資相關。也與我們未來的方向相關——不論是開拓新市場或推出新產品，我們認為 Kensho 都能在其中提供協助。其中一部分費用是人員成本，另一部分則是額外的運算能力或資料工具的容量等。但這些都建立在我們對 Kensho 進展所取得的早期成果感到非常安心的基礎之上。而且它們都以成長為導向。不過我也會說，目前進行中的部分資料工作，未來也可能帶來生產力提升。所以我們並不是把生產力放在一旁，但其中很大一部分確實是以成長機會為主軸。

Okay. Great. And the investments are not part of the retention payments, right? These are actual incremental investments?

好的。很好。而這些投資不是留任支付的一部分，對吧？這些是真正額外增加的投資？

These are incremental investments. Well, let me just wrap this up and, first of all, thank everyone for joining the call today. As you've heard from us, we continue to be committed to growing our businesses, to investing for growth, to finding new ways to continue to have productivity. We're using our framework of Powering the Markets of the Future and the 6 foundational capabilities as a guide frame for us.

這些是增量投資。那麼我就做個總結，首先感謝各位今天參與電話會議。正如各位所聽到的，我們仍致力於推動業務成長、為成長而投資，並尋找新的方式持續提升生產力。我們以「驅動未來市場（Powering the Markets of the Future）」以及 6 項基礎能力的架構作為指引框架。

We'll continue to show that to you as we use that as a consistent approach for speaking with our Board of Directors about our long-term growth, with our employees and also with our shareholders. So we look forward to being back in touch with you at the end of the second quarter. And with that, thank you again always for your great questions and for your support. Thank you again.

我們將持續向各位展示這一點，因為我們會以此作為一致的方法，與董事會討論我們的長期成長、與員工溝通，也與股東溝通。因此，我們期待在第二季結束時再與各位聯繫。最後，再次感謝各位一如既往提出的精彩問題與支持。再次謝謝。

That concludes this morning's call. A PDF version of the presented slides is available now for downloading from investor.spglobal.com. A replay of this call, including the Q&A session, will be available in about 2 hours. The replay will be maintained on S&P Global's website for 12 months from today and by telephone for 1 month from today.

今天上午的電話會議到此結束。簡報投影片的 PDF 版本現已可於 investor.spglobal.com 下載。本次電話會議（包含問答環節）的重播將於約 2 小時後提供。重播將自今日起在 S&P Global 網站保留 12 個月，並可透過電話保留 1 個月。

On behalf of S&P Global, we thank you for participating and wish you a good day.

謹代表 S&P Global，感謝各位參與，祝各位有美好的一天。