Sovos Brands Inc (SOVO) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Sovos Brands Fourth Quarter Fiscal Year 2021 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference to your host, Mr. Josh Levine, Vice President Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

感謝您的支持，歡迎來到 Sovos Brands 2021 財年第四季度收益電話會議。此時，所有參與者都是只聽模式。演講者介紹後，將進行問答環節。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，今天的通話正在錄音中。我現在想把會議轉給你的主持人，投資者關係副總裁 Josh Levine 先生。請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us on Sovos Brands Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call. On the call today are Todd Lachman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Chris Hall, Chief Financial Officer. By now, everyone should have access to the earnings release for the period ended December 31, 2022, that went out this afternoon at approximately 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time. The press release as well as supplemental slides can be found on the company's website at ir.sovosbrands.com. And shortly after the conclusion of today's call, a webcast will also be archived and available for replay. Before we begin, let me remind everyone that today's discussion contains forward-looking statements based on the environment as we currently see it, and as such, does include risks and uncertainties. If you refer to the company's earnings release as well as its most recent SEC filings, you will see a discussion of factors that could cause Sovos Brands' actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements. Please remember the company undertakes no obligation to update or revise these forward-looking statements in the future. 

下午好，感謝您加入我們的 Sovos Brands 第四季度和 2022 財年收益電話會議。今天的電話會議是總裁兼首席執行官托德·拉赫曼 (Todd Lachman)；和首席財務官 Chris Hall。到現在為止，每個人都應該可以訪問截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日的財報，該財報於今天下午大約下午 4:00 發布。東部時間。新聞稿和補充幻燈片可在公司網站 ir.sovosbrands.com 上找到。在今天的電話會議結束後不久，網絡廣播也將被存檔並可供重播。在我們開始之前，讓我提醒大家，今天的討論包含基於我們當前所見環境的前瞻性陳述，因此確實包含風險和不確定性。如果您參考公司的收益發布及其最近提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件，您會看到對可能導致 Sovos Brands 的實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述存在重大差異的因素的討論。請記住，公司不承擔在未來更新或修改這些前瞻性陳述的義務。

We will make a number of references to non-GAAP financial measures. We believe that these measures provide investors with useful perspective on the underlying growth trends of the business and have included in our earnings release a full reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable GAAP measures. Please note that all consumption data cited on today's call will refer to dollar consumption as of the 13-week period ended December 25, 2022, and growth versus the prior year comparable period unless otherwise noted. And lastly, to avoid any confusion, organic net sales growth for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2022 represents growth on a 13- and 52-week comparable basis that excludes the extra week. For discussions pertaining to fiscal 2023, including our guidance and growth expectations, organic net sales growth is calculated as net sales growth, adjusted for birch vendors and the 53rd week in 2022. With that, I would now like to turn the call over to Todd.

我們將多次提及非 GAAP 財務指標。我們相請注意，除非另有說明，否則今天電話會議中引用的所有消費數據均指截至 2022 年 12 月 25 日止的 13 週期間的美元消費，以及與上年同期相比的增長。最後，為避免混淆，第四季度和 2022 財年的有機淨銷售額增長代表了不包括額外一周的 13 周和 52 周可比增長。對於與 2023 財年相關的討論，包括我們的指導和增長預期，有機淨銷售額增長計算為淨銷售額增長，針對樺木供應商和 2022 年第 53 週進行了調整。有了這個，我現在想把電話轉給托德.

Thanks, Josh. I'm very excited today to share with you our outstanding results for 2022, highlighted by double-digit volume growth, Rao's continued rapid march to $1 billion of net sales and our strong fourth quarter performance that is carried into 2023. I will then hand it over to Chris Hall to provide greater detail on our fourth quarter and full year as well as our initial 2023 outlook. Sovos Brands delivered another year of sector-leading growth in 2022 with organic net sales up 19.5%, accelerating to 28.4% in the fourth quarter. In fact, organic net sales growth in the quarter was the highest for Sovos Brands and Rao's since the first quarter of 2021. Importantly, our top line performance was driven primarily by volume as opposed to price, which highly differentiates us from the majority of our packaged food peers. Specifically, volume contributed 10.8% and 16% to full year and fourth quarter growth, respectively. And by the way, this momentum has carried into the start of the year, with net sales in January and February coming in strong. The strength of our fourth quarter top line translated into equally impressive bottom line results, with adjusted gross profit and adjusted EBITDA dollars up 29% and 40%, respectively, versus prior year. 

謝謝，喬希。今天我很高興能與大家分享我們 2022 年的出色業績，突出體現在兩位數的銷量增長、Rao 繼續快速進軍至 10 億美元的淨銷售額以及我們延續到 2023 年的第四季度強勁業績。然後我將將其交給 Chris Hall，以提供有關我們第四季度和全年的更多詳細信息以及我們最初的 2023 年展望。 Sovos Brands 在 2022 年又實現了行業領先的增長，有機淨銷售額增長 19.5%，第四季度加速至 28.4%。事實上，本季度的有機淨銷售額增長是 Sovos Brands 和 Rao's 自 2021 年第一季度以來最高的。重要的是，我們的營收業績主要是由銷量而非價格推動的，這使我們與我們的大多數公司截然不同包裝食品同行。具體而言，銷量分別為全年和第四季度的增長貢獻了 10.8% 和 16%。順便說一句，這種勢頭一直延續到今年年初，1 月和 2 月的淨銷售額強勁增長。我們第四季度的強勁業績轉化為同樣令人印象深刻的業績，調整後的毛利和調整後的 EBITDA 美元分別比去年同期增長 29% 和 40%。

It's important to highlight that we delivered our results against a very challenging operating environment. Our teams responded tenaciously to overcome supply chain challenges during a year of global supply constraints and rapid inflation. Our customer service levels for soft and yogurt are now at or above target levels. Our robust slate of automation and productivity projects are delivering on cost savings objectives. And our inventories are in a healthier position than at any time since the beginning of the pandemic. We also divested Birch Benders at the end of fiscal 2022, allowing us to focus our resources on driving Rao's towards $1 billion of net sales and beyond. Excluding Birch Benders, our full year organic net sales growth would have been 23.5% versus prior year. And as Chris will talk more about the continued momentum we are seeing in our business and a much simpler portfolio will help us achieve our guidance of double-digit growth for organic net sales and adjusted EBITDA in 2023. 

重要的是要強調我們在極具挑戰性的運營環境中取得了成果。在全球供應緊張和快速通貨膨脹的一年中，我們的團隊做出了頑強的反應，克服了供應鏈挑戰。我們對軟奶和酸奶的客戶服務水平現在達到或高於目標水平。我們強大的自動化和生產力項目正在實現成本節約目標。我們的庫存比大流行開始以來的任何時候都更健康。我們還在 2022 財年末剝離了 Birch Benders，使我們能夠集中資源推動 Rao's 實現 10 億美元及以上的淨銷售額。不包括 Birch Benders，我們全年的有機淨銷售額同比增長 23.5%。隨著克里斯更多地談論我們在業務中看到的持續發展勢頭，更簡單的產品組合將幫助我們實現 2023 年有機淨銷售額和調整後 EBITDA 兩位數增長的指導。

The volume-led growth of Sovos Brands underscores the strength of the Rao's franchise and the long runway of opportunities still ahead. Rao's had another impressive year, surpassing $0.5 billion of net sales, up 35% organically for the full year and accelerating to 45% in the fourth quarter. While we have quintupled household penetration for Rao's, since we acquired the brand in 2017, household penetration is still just 15% today with awareness at only 58%. With plans to grow our marketing and R&D spend double digits in 2023, we are confident that we can continue to drive years of sustainable volume-led growth into the future. Total rails franchise dollar consumption for the fourth quarter grew 24.8%, led by 16.6% unit growth, driven by broad-based gains in distribution and velocities. Total rail household penetration increased to 15.2%, up 210 basis points versus prior year as a result of adding new households across all categories. Rao's itself achieved notable milestones during the year. Measured retail sales surpassed $0.5 billion, up 26.9% versus 2021, the fastest rate of growth for any scaled brand in the category. And for the first time, Rao's was the #2 ranked Pasta and Pizza sauce brand reaching a 14.7% dollar share for the year, up 150 basis points versus 2021, a remarkable improvement from the #7 position when we acquired the brand. While unit share, household penetration and awareness are all well below our peers, Rao's dollar velocities are double the category average while providing superior penny profits for the retailer, highlighting the massive opportunity ahead. 

Sovos Brands 以銷量為主導的增長突顯了 Rao 的特許經營權的實力以及未來的長期機遇。 Rao's 又是一個令人印象深刻的一年，淨銷售額超過 5 億美元，全年有機增長 35%，第四季度加速至 45%。雖然我們將 Rao's 的家庭滲透率提高了五倍，但自從我們在 2017 年收購該品牌以來，如今家庭滲透率仍僅為 15%，知名度僅為 58%。我們計劃在 2023 年將營銷和研發支出增加兩位數，我們有信心在未來繼續推動以銷量為主導的可持續增長。第四季度鐵路特許經營美元總消費增長 24.8%，單位增長 16.6%，受分銷和速度廣泛增長的推動。由於在所有類別中增加了新的家庭，鐵路家庭總滲透率增加到 15.2%，比上一年增加了 210 個基點。 Rao's 本身在這一年中取得了顯著的里程碑。實測零售額超過 5 億美元，比 2021 年增長 26.9%，是該類別中任何規模品牌中增長最快的。 Rao's 首次成為排名第二的意大利面和比薩醬品牌，全年達到 14.7% 的美元份額，比 2021 年上升 150 個基點，與我們收購該品牌時排名第七的位置相比有了顯著進步.雖然單位份額、家庭滲透率和意識都遠低於我們的同行，但 Rao 的美元速度是類別平均水平的兩倍，同時為零售商提供了卓越的便士利潤，突顯了未來的巨大機遇。

For the fourth quarter, Rao's dollar unit consumption in sauce increased by 20.3% and 8%, respectively, with high single-digit unit growth coming in ahead of flattish category growth. To build on our momentum, I am also excited to share that we will be launching some new flavor innovations within the Rao's sauce portfolio, seeking to meet consumer demands for elevated culinary experiences at home, specifically caramelizing onions, vodka Arvada and 4 cheese Alfredo pasta sauces as well as our Biota pizza sauce. We'll be hitting retail shelves later this year. And if you happen to be at the Natural Products Expo this week, feel free to stop by to try them out. Our newer Rao's beachhead categories of soup, pasta and frozen all continued to grow well ahead of their categories in the quarter, generating combined dollar and unit consumption growth of 45.5% and 41.1%, respectively, with our business in each category growing dollars and units at least 30%. Household penetration and dollar shares are at or below 2% for the Rao's brand in each of these categories, reflecting material runway ahead. In the second half of 2022, we conducted a test of Rao's frozen pizza across select retailers. Due to successful test market results, we will be expanding nationally in 2023. Our range of brick oven crust frozen pizzas made with Rao's authentic pizza sauce and whole milk mozzarella cheese are a differentiated case led premium offering in a large and fragmented category right for disruption. This is a natural extension of the Rao's brand and an exciting opportunity to continue to offer the consumer restaurant-quality food across the store. 

第四季度，Rao 的醬汁美元單位消費量分別增長了 20.3% 和 8%，在類別增長持平之前出現了單位數的高單位數增長。為了鞏固我們的勢頭，我也很高興地與大家分享，我們將在 Rao's 醬汁產品組合中推出一些新的風味創新，以滿足消費者對在家中提升烹飪體驗的需求，特別是焦糖洋蔥、伏特加 Arvada 和 4 奶酪Alfredo 意大利麵醬以及我們的 Biota 比薩醬。我們將在今年晚些時候上架零售貨架。如果您本週碰巧參加了天然產品博覽會，請隨時過來試用一下。我們較新的 Rao's 湯品、意大利面和冷凍品類在本季度繼續遠超其品類，美元和單位消費的總和分別增長 45.5% 和 41.1%，我們在每個品類中的業務都在增長美元和單位至少 30%。在這些類別中，Rao's 品牌的家庭滲透率和美元份額處於或低於 2%，反映出未來的實質性跑道。 2022 年下半年，我們在部分零售商中對 Rao's 冷凍披薩進行了測試。由於成功的市場測試結果，我們將於 2023 年在全國范圍內擴張。我們的磚爐地殼冷凍比薩系列採用 Rao 的正宗比薩醬和全脂馬蘇里拉奶酪製成，是一種差異化的優質產品，在一個大而零散的類別中適合顛覆.這是 Rao's 品牌的自然延伸，也是繼續在整個商店為消費者提供餐廳品質食品的令人興奮的機會。

Turning to noosa. Our yogurt business grew consumption low single digits on a dollar basis in the quarter, with pricing and mix driving the growth. We continue to fine-tune our promotional strategy and have seen our consumption data improve in recent periods, bolstering our momentum towards a fourth straight year of growth for the brand. We're also delighted to announce some exciting news for the Michael Angelo's brand. We recently launched the brand's first innovation outside of the freezer, introducing 4 new mid-price SKUs into the pasta category exclusively with a select retailers. This new line of delicious sauces uses 100-year-old recipes inspired by Michael Angelo's Sicilian Matriarch known as Foti, and leverages the brands authentically Italian heritage. This allows Sovos Brands to capture more eating occasions by offering great tasting foods made with high-quality ingredients at multiple price points. We see this as a highly incremental growth opportunity for the company and our retail partners. In January, as you likely saw, we disclosed that we divested the Birch Benders brand to Hometown Food Company, which resulted in a reduction in the categories in which we compete by nearly 50%. Our ongoing efforts to create a more focused portfolio allow us to direct more resources and investment towards our most meaningful value creation opportunities, notably accelerating rates to $1 billion of net sales and beyond. In summary, we are very pleased with our fiscal 2022 performance and momentum as we enter 2023. We are excited by what the future holds for our portfolio of brands led by Rao's. Our growth trajectory and focused brand portfolio will enable another year of double-digit organic net sales and importantly, robust adjusted EBITDA growth. This outlook notably includes continued increases in growth-oriented investments to support brand building, innovation and capabilities, helping us sustain our sector-leading growth. I will now hand it over to Chris for more details on the quarter and year as well as our guidance for 2023.

轉向努薩。我們的酸奶業務在本季度以美元為基礎的消費增長低個位數，定價和混合推動了增長。我們繼續微調我們的促銷策略，最近一段時間我們的消費數據有所改善，為我們品牌連續第四年增長提供了動力。我們也很高興地宣布 Michael Angelo's 品牌的一些令人振奮的消息。我們最近推出了該品牌在冰箱之外的第一項創新，與精選零售商合作，將 4 種新的中等價位 SKU 引入麵食類別。這個新的美味醬汁系列採用具有 100 年曆史的食譜，靈感來自米開朗琪羅的西西里女族長 Foti，並充分利用了品牌真正的意大利傳統。這使得 Sovos Brands 能夠以多種價位提供採用優質原料製成的美味食品，從而吸引更多的就餐場合。我們認為這對公司和我們的零售合作夥伴來說是一個高度增量的增長機會。 1 月份，正如您可能看到的那樣，我們透露我們將 Birch Benders 品牌剝離給了 Hometown Food Company，這導致我們競爭的類別減少了近 50%。我們不斷努力創建更集中的投資組合，使我們能夠將更多的資源和投資用於我們最有意義的價值創造機會，特別是將淨銷售額提高到 10 億美元甚至更高。總而言之，我們對 2022 財年的業績感到非常滿意和我們進入 2023 年的勢頭。我們對 Rao's 領導的品牌組合的未來感到興奮。我們的增長軌跡和專注的品牌組合將使又一年實現兩位數的有機淨銷售額，重要的是，調整後的 EBITDA 將實現強勁增長。這一前景特別包括持續增加以增長為導向的投資，以支持品牌建設、創新和能力，幫助我們保持行業領先的增長。我現在將其交給克里斯，以了解有關季度和年度的更多詳細信息以及我們對 2023 年的指導。

Thank you, Todd, and good afternoon, everyone. For the full year, total net sales of $878.4 million increased 22.1% or 19.5% on an organic basis, driven by 10.8% volume and 8.7% price. Excluding Birch Benders, our full year organic growth would have been 23.5%. Fourth quarter total net sales were $262.1 million, a $72.9 million or 38.5% increase over the prior year period. Excluding the extra week, organic growth of 28.4% was driven by 16% volume and 12.4% price. The extra week added $19.1 million or 10.1% to our quarterly growth. Excluding Birch Benders, our consolidated fourth quarter organic growth would have been 30.1%. Looking at our portfolio, we grew across nearly all categories, and from a brand perspective, Rao's remained the key driver. As a reminder, Rao's is our largest brand, now accounting for nearly 70% of our annual net sales. Rao's is also our fastest-growing brand of 34.9% on an organic basis in 2022, and our dinner and sauces segment accounts for the majority of our EBITDA. For the quarter, Rao's increased total net sales of 56% or 44.6% on a comparable 13-week organic basis. This performance was driven first by approximately 25% net sales growth in measured channels that was generally in line with our consumption growth. Second, we saw particularly strong non-measured channel growth behind new events and distribution wins. And third, we benefited from some pipeline sales ahead of early 2023 distribution gains that will benefit us during the new year. 

謝謝托德，大家下午好。全年淨銷售額為 8.784 億美元，有機增長 22.1% 或 19.5%，銷量增長 10.8%，價格增長 8.7%。不包括 Birch Benders，我們全年的有機增長率為 23.5%。第四季度總淨銷售額為 2.621 億美元，比去年同期增長 7290 萬美元或 38.5%。排除額外的一周，28.4% 的有機增長是由 16% 的銷量和 12.4% 的價格推動的。額外的一周為我們的季度增長增加了 1910 萬美元或 10.1%。不包括 Birch Benders，我們第四季度的綜合有機增長率為 30.1%。從我們的產品組合來看，我們幾乎在所有類別中都取得了增長，從品牌的角度來看，Rao's 仍然是主要驅動力。提醒一下，Rao's 是我們最大的品牌，現在占我們年淨銷售額的近 70%。 Rao's 也是我們增長最快的品牌，到 2022 年有機增長率為 34.9%，我們的晚餐和醬料部門占我們 EBITDA 的大部分。本季度，在可比的 13 周有機基礎上，Rao's 的總淨銷售額增長了 56% 或 44.6%。這一業績首先受到衡量渠道約 25% 的淨銷售額增長的推動，這與我們的消費增長基本一致。其次，我們看到新活動和分銷勝利背後特別強勁的非衡量渠道增長。第三，我們受益於 2023 年初分銷收益之前的一些管道銷售，這將使我們在新的一年受益。

Beyond Rao's total net sales growth in the fourth quarter was up 12.5% for noosa, down 0.3% for Michael Angelo's and up 6.7% for Birch Benders. On an organic basis, noosa grew 4.3%, Michael Angelo's was down 7.1% and Birch Benders was down 1.2%. Adjusted gross profit of $76.5 million increased $17 million or 28.6% year-over-year, double-digit volume and pricing growth as well as productivity savings more than offset the impact of low double-digit inflation. Adjusted gross margins were 29.2% for the quarter, slightly ahead of our expectations, reflecting a 220 basis point decline versus the prior year period. We made meaningful improvements on gross margin during the year with our second half gross margin of 29.5%, well above the 26.9% we generated in the first half, reflecting our commitment to improve margins while still growing the top line. Our CapEx enabled automation projects in our Austin manufacturing plants are now up and running, delivering cost savings and improved service levels. Finally, note that the combination of our pricing and productivity efforts in 2022 will provide a tailwind as we enter the first half of 2023. $42.4 million of adjusted operating expenses, inclusive of marketing and selling, increased by $6.7 million or 18.8% over the prior year period, driven by the growth-enabling investments primarily to support our talent and capabilities.

Beyond Rao 在第四季度的總淨銷售額增長中，noosa 增長了 12.5%，Michael Angelo 下降了 0.3%，Birch Benders 增長了 6.7%。在有機基礎上，noosa 增長了 4.3%，Michael Angelo's 下降了 7.1%，Birch Benders 下降了 1.2%。調整後的毛利潤為 7650 萬美元，同比增長 1700 萬美元或 28.6%，兩位數的銷量和價格增長以及生產率節省足以抵消低兩位數通貨膨脹的影響。本季度調整後的毛利率為 29.2%，略高於我們的預期，較上年同期下降 220 個基點。我們在這一年中對毛利率進行了有意義的改善，下半年的毛利率為 29.5%，遠高於上半年的 26.9%，這反映了我們在提高利潤率的同時仍保持收入增長的承諾。我們在奧斯汀製造工廠中支持資本支出的自動化項目現已啟動並運行，從而節省了成本並提高了服務水平。最後，請注意，我們在 2022 年的定價和生產力努力的結合將為我們進入 2023 年上半年提供順風。調整後的運營費用為 4240 萬美元，包括營銷和銷售，比之前增加了 670 萬美元或 18.8%年期間，主要由支持我們的人才和能力的增長支持投資推動。

Adjusted EBITDA of $37 million increased $10.5 million or 39.7% versus Q4 2021, while adjusted EBITDA margin was 14.1%, up 10 basis points versus the prior year period. Net loss for the quarter was $28.7 million or negative $0.28 per diluted share compared to a loss of $3.8 million or negative $0.04 per diluted share in the prior year period. The loss in this year's fourth quarter was largely due to the loss on asset sales related to the Birch Benders divestiture. Adjusted net income was $19.6 million and adjusted EPS was $0.19 per diluted share compared to adjusted net income of $13 million and $0.13 per diluted share in Q4 2021. On a full year basis, adjusted net income was $60.4 million or $0.60 per diluted share. At the end of the fourth quarter, cash and cash equivalents were $138.7 million and total debt was $482.4 million. We're very pleased with our progress on leverage, which finished the year at 2.9x. Better-than-expected year-end net leverage was driven by strong cash generation and EBITDA in the quarter as well as the proceeds from the Birch Benders divestiture. Our strong cash position gives us enormous flexibility to invest further in our brands. 

調整後的 EBITDA 為 3700 萬美元，與 2021 年第四季度相比增加了 1050 萬美元或 39.7%，而調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 14.1%，與去年同期相比增加了 10 個基點。與去年同期相比，本季度的淨虧損為 2870 萬美元或攤薄後每股虧損 0.28 美元去年同期虧損 380 萬美元或攤薄後每股虧損 0.04 美元。今年第四季度的虧損主要是由於與 Birch Benders 資產剝離相關的資產出售虧損。調整後淨收入為 1,960 萬美元，調整後每股收益為 0.19 美元，而 2021 年第四季度調整後淨收入為 1,300 萬美元，稀釋後每股收益為 0.13 美元。按全年計算，調整後淨收入為 6,040 萬美元或稀釋後每股收益為 0.60 美元。第四季度末，現金和現金等價物為 1.387 億美元，總債務為 4.824 億美元。我們對我們在槓桿方面取得的進展感到非常滿意，今年年底時槓桿率為 2.9 倍。好於預期的年終淨槓桿率受到本季度強勁的現金產生和 EBITDA 以及 BirchA Benders 資產剝離收益的推動。我們強大的現金狀況為我們提供了極大的靈活性，可以進一步投資我們的品牌。

I would now like to provide some detail on fiscal year 2022 results for Birch Benders. On a full year basis, total net sales were $41.2 million, and adjusted EBITDA was negligible, reflecting elevated reinvestment into the brand with bottom line performance relatively consistent by quarter. I will now turn to our fiscal 2023 outlook and some of the underlying assumptions that support it. Specifically for net sales, we are guiding to a range of $900 million to $925 million. This reflects organic net sales growth of 10% to 13%, which adjusts for Birch Benders in the 53rd week in 2022. We expect our growth to be balanced across volume and price with price moderating during the year as we lap last year's actions. We also assume that elasticities will normalize given the potential that macroeconomic challenges could materialize. Lastly, we are pleased with our overall promotional strategy and anticipate our cadence in 2023 to be similar to 2022. For adjusted EBITDA, we are guiding to a range of $130 million to $135 million, reflecting growth of 9% to 13%. Embedded in this guidance is moderate gross margin improvement for the full year, driven by pricing and productivity that we expect will fully offset mid-single-digit inflation. We also will increase our growth investments, specifically supporting our brands, people and capabilities to help us capitalize on the multiyear opportunity ahead. This includes a strong double-digit increase in marketing and R&D. 

我現在想提供一些關於 Birch Benders 2022 財年業績的詳細信息。按全年計算，總淨銷售額為 4120 萬美元，調整後的 EBITDA 可以忽略不計，反映出對該品牌的再投資增加，且季度業績相對一致。我現在將轉向我們的 2023 財年展望以及支持它的一些基本假設。特別是對於淨銷售額，我們指導範圍為 9 億至 9.25 億美元。這反映了 10% 至 13% 的有機淨銷售額增長，這針對 2022 年第 53 週的 Birch Benders 進行了調整。我們預計我們的增長將在數量和價格之間保持平衡，同時我們將在去年的行動中放慢價格。鑑於宏觀經濟挑戰可能成為現實，我們還假設彈性將正常化。最後，我們對我們的整體促銷策略感到滿意，並預計我們 2023 年的節奏將與 2022 年相似。對於調整後的 EBITDA，我們的指導範圍為 1.3 億美元至 1.35 億美元，反映出 9% 至 13% 的增長。在定價和生產力的推動下，我們預計全年毛利率將適度改善，這將完全抵消中等個位數的通貨膨脹。我們還將增加我們的增長投資，特別是支持我們的品牌、人員和能力，以幫助我們利用未來多年的機會。這包括營銷和研發方面兩位數的強勁增長。

Below the line, we are guiding net interest expense to be in the range of $36 million to $40 million. As a reminder, half our debt is floating, while we have capped the other half at an effective 7.5% interest rate. We expect our adjusted effective tax rate to be in the range of 25% to 27%. For a summary of these and other annual guidance items, please see Slide 16 in our earnings slide deck posted on our Investor Relations website. Finally, I'd like to provide some color on our expectations for the phasing of the year. Overall, we expect double-digit organic net sales growth in both the first and second half of the year. For adjusted EBITDA, we expect growth and margin expansion to be higher in the first half. And as a result, EBITDA dollars should be more balanced between the first and second halves of the year than in 2022. Let me now turn the call back over to Todd for some final remarks.

在此線之下，我們指導淨利息支出在 3600 萬至 4000 萬美元之間。提醒一下，我們一半的債務是浮動的，而我們將另一半的有效利率限制在 7.5%。我們預計調整後的有效稅率將在 25% 至 27% 的範圍內。有關這些和其他年度指導項目的摘要，請參閱我們投資者關係網站上發布的收益幻燈片中的幻燈片 16。最後，我想就我們對今年分階段的期望提供一些顏色。總體而言，我們預計今年上半年和下半年的有機淨銷售額將實現兩位數增長。對於調整後的 EBITDA，我們預計上半年的增長和利潤率擴張會更高。因此，與 2022 年相比，今年上半年和下半年的 EBITDA 美元應該更加平衡。現在讓我把電話轉回給托德，聽取一些最後的評論。

Thanks, Chris. We are very proud of what we achieved in 2022. We generated volume-led 22% sales growth, year-on-year bottom line growth and catapulted forward on our march to $1 billion of net sales for Rao's. None of this would have been possible without our great team and the incredible frontline employees that come to work every day to support our business and deliver these strong results. As we look forward, we are confident in executing against the comprehensive plans we discussed to deliver double-digit growth for the top and bottom line in 2023. With that, Chris and I are now available to take your questions. Operator?

謝謝，克里斯。我們為我們在 2022 年取得的成就感到非常自豪。我們實現了 22% 的銷量增長，同比利潤增長，並在我們邁向 10 億美元的 Rao's 淨銷售額的過程中一躍而上。如果沒有我們優秀的團隊和令人難以置信的一線員工每天來支持我們的業務並取得這些出色的成果，這一切都不可能實現。展望未來，我們有信心執行我們討論的全面計劃，以在 2023 年實現收入和利潤的兩位數增長。有了這個，克里斯和我現在可以回答你的問題。操作員？

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Ken Goldman of JPMorgan.

謝謝。 （操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通的肯戈德曼。

Just curious, Chris, how big was the shipping that you mentioned in the quarter for pipeline fills and some new distribution. And as we think about modeling the first quarter, I know you gave some cadence items there, but should we essentially just pull that amount out of the quarter? Or are there some offsets that we should think about, too?

只是好奇，克里斯，你在本季度提到的管道填充和一些新分銷的出貨量有多大。當我們考慮對第一季度進行建模時，我知道你在那裡提供了一些節奏項目，但我們是否應該從本季度中提取該數量？還是我們也應該考慮一些補償？

Thank you, Ken. We did get some very nice distribution gains here as we -- as we kick off the year. We're seeing that in our consumption results ramping up week after week after week. What we shipped out at the end of 2022 for that pipeline was a head up. I'd call it an immaterial impact on our Q4 results. It did account for some of our beat to our guidance, but it won't have an impact on Q1 because we're seeing that consumption growth that we would want from that space. So I wouldn't reflect anything of a reduction to Q1 based on a small pipeline fill?

謝謝你，肯。我們確實在這裡獲得了一些非常好的分銷收益 - 因為我們開始了這一年。我們在消費結果中看到這一點一周又一周地增加。我們在 2022 年底為該管道交付的產品是領先的。我認為這對我們第四季度的業績影響不大。它確實解釋了我們超出預期的部分原因，但它不會對第一季度產生影響，因為我們看到了我們希望從該領域獲得的消費增長。所以我不會反映任何基於小管道填充的 Q1 減少？

Got it. Okay. And then my second question, we've seen, and I have talked about this, some of these sort of entry-level premium brands in SaaS, for lack of a better phrase, sort of coming in, not taking a ton of share but doing reasonably well on a small level. I'm just curious how they're performing now against your expectations? And if you're doing anything in particular to combat them? And I guess where I'm going with that is this sort of where the Michael Angelo's introduction into sauces going to kind of be that entry-level premium? Or is that more truly mid-tier?

知道了。好的。然後是我的第二個問題，我們已經看到，並且我已經談到了這一點，SaaS 中的一些入門級優質品牌，由於缺乏更好的用語，有點進來，但沒有佔據大量份額，而是在一個小的層面上做得相當好。我只是好奇他們現在的表現如何超出您的預期？如果你正在做任何特別的事情來打擊他們？我想我要去的地方是 Michael Angelo 對醬汁的介紹將成為入門級溢價？還是更真正的中層？

Ken, it's Todd. You can call it kind of mid-tier or rental level premium. I actually think they're a bit one and the same. So yes, I mean, honestly, there have been some competitive entrants in that area that that's a growing space. And we see that as an opportunity. I mean, look, we're a soft company through and through. Clearly, Rao's is on fire, and I'll talk about that subsequently. But we've been looking at this for a while and felt that there was a distinct opportunity to leverage another equity, Michael Angelo's, which we have, we've tested this conceptually. We've tested product-wise and it keeps hitting out of the park, but the price -- that price range of like $4 to $5-ish, which is about 50% premium to mainstream, for perspective, that's about 30% less of average-to-average-ish to Rao's range. I feel like that's a nice area right now that we just felt was an opportunity to leverage our Michael Angelo's equity. The products are very different, except what Michael, what we're offering though is a slow simmer hold tomato-based sauce with real ingredients. So at a premium to mainstream albeit not as high as Rao's, you're getting something that is different than tomato paste, plus water plus sugar plus canola oil, plus the high traded onions, which that's mainstream sauce, that's the private label analog, but it's very differentiated verse rate. It's both label proposition, packaging, texture. We've made sure of that. And at the end of the day, with only 6% of the units, Rao's, your source of volume will come proportionately from all players. So 95%-ish, 90%, 95% of the units that we will source for Michael Angelo's in this entry, which is always starting off with one customer. I'll be the larger one. We'll be coming from competitive -- the competition versus radio. So we see this as a really smart thing to do. We've had our eyes on this space for a while, and we're excited to see what's to come.

肯，是托德。您可以將其稱為中等或租金水平的溢價。我實際上認為它們有點相似。所以，是的，我的意思是，老實說，該領域有一些競爭性進入者，這是一個不斷增長的空間。我們認為這是一個機會。我的意思是，看，我們是一家徹頭徹尾的軟公司。顯然，Rao's 著火了，我稍後會談到這一點。但我們已經研究了一段時間，並認為有一個獨特的機會來利用我們擁有的另一種股權，Michael Angelo 的股權，我們已經在概念上對此進行了測試。我們已經在產品方面進行了測試，它一直很受歡迎，但是價格——價格範圍在 4 到 5 美元左右，比主流高出 50%，從長遠來看，比主流低 30%平均到平均 ish 到 Rao 的範圍。我覺得現在這是一個不錯的領域，我們只是覺得這是一個利用我們 Michael Angelo 股權的機會。這些產品非常不同，除了邁克爾，我們提供的是一種慢燉番茄醬，含有真正的成分。因此，儘管沒有 Rao 的那麼高，但相對於主流來說，你得到的東西與番茄醬不同，加上水、糖和菜籽油，再加上高交易量的洋蔥，這是主流醬汁，這是自有品牌的類似物，但它的詩率差異很大。它既是標籤主張，包裝，質地。我們已經確定了這一點。最終，只有 6% 的單位，Rao's，您的數量來源將按比例來自所有玩家。所以 95%、90%、95% 的單位我們將在這個條目中為 Michael Angelo 採購，它總是從一個客戶開始。我會是更大的那個。我們來自競爭——競爭與廣播。所以我們認為這是一件非常聰明的事情。我們已經關注這個空間一段時間了，我們很高興看到即將發生的事情。

Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Lazar of Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Andrew Lazar。

One quick clarification first. With the pipeline fill that you were talking about earlier, did you say it was material to 4Q sales or immaterial to 4Q sales?

首先快速澄清一下。對於您之前談到的管道填充，您是說它對第四季度的銷售額很重要還是對第四季度的銷售額不重要？

Yes. No, it was immaterial, not material to Q4, which, as you've seen, was a tremendous quarter for Rao's and for the business in general.

是的。不，這對第四季度來說並不重要，正如你所看到的，第四季度對 Rao's 和整個企業來說都是一個巨大的季度。

Got it. So was there much of a differential in -- between consumption and shipments for Rao's or not so much in the fourth quarter?

知道了。那麼，第四季度 Rao's 的消費和出貨量之間是否存在很大差異？

Yes. No. So you will see for Q4, what we're seeing in our consumption reports, in our annual reports is lower than our shipments. And there's a few drivers for that. When you look at pure retail, which was up roughly 25% in consumption really mirrors our shipments as well. So we were right in line there both for Q4 and for the full year. We had a particularly strong quarter and non-measured channels. We had a very, very favorable events at a single customer. And we also picked up distribution across a few other outlets that we had been building up across the year that really took flight in Q4. And that's true not just in sauce, but really across all the categories within Rao's and the totality of our beats to our previous guidance as well as our upticks from consumption to shipments, really what's seeing across the Rao's business.

是的。不，所以你會看到第四季度，我們在我們的消費報告中看到的，在我們的年度報告中低於我們的出貨量。並且有一些驅動程序。當你看純零售時，消費增長了大約 25%，這也確實反映了我們的出貨量。所以我們在第四季度和全年都是正確的。我們有一個特別強勁的季度和非衡量渠道。我們在一個客戶那裡舉辦了一場非常非常有利的活動。我們還選擇了我們在過去一年中建立的其他一些網點的分銷，這些網點在第四季度真正起飛。這不僅在調味料中是正確的，而且在 Rao's 的所有類別中都是如此，我們對之前指導的整體節拍以及我們從消費到出貨量的上升，確實是在 Rao's 的業務中看到的。

Yes, let me just build to because what is material is the distribution gain that we're seeing now in market. And I think that is really important. I'll give you a perspective, just using sauce, as an example, for the fourth quarter, TDPs were up about 7% year-on-year in the fourth quarter. If I look at the last 13 weeks ended 226 fresh data, up 22% versus prior year. So -- and again, that is on a brand now that organically was $566 million of sales, that total franchise, but we have very meaningful distribution gains. As I've been talking about a lot, Andrew, with you and others on these calls that there is still major wind to shop, major opportunities for further distribution gains, and I'll talk more about that in a bit. But in the end, right now, 22%. And so what we're seeing is we increased penetration in total franchise almost basically 200 basis points -- over 200 basis points from 13.1% to 15.2%, and we increased 100 basis points year-on-year in sauce, and we see both of those up meaningfully in 2 months into the quarter. I'm not going to quote exact number. We'll talk about that over the next call, but those distribution gains are playing through right now in consumption and most importantly, to us in household penetration gains.

是的，讓我繼續努力，因為重要的是我們現在在市場上看到的分銷收益。我認為這非常重要。我給你一個視角，就拿sauce來說，就第四季度來說，TDPs在第四季度同比增長了7%左右。如果我查看過去 13 週結束的 226 個新數據，比去年同期增長 22%。所以 - 再一次，這是一個品牌，現在有機銷售額為 5.66 億美元，總特許經營權，但我們有非常有意義的分銷收益。正如我一直在談論的那樣，安德魯，在這些電話中與你和其他人一起談論仍然有很大的購物風，進一步分銷收益的主要機會，我稍後會詳細討論這一點。但最終，現在，22%。因此，我們看到的是，我們在總特許經營權中的滲透率幾乎基本上提高了 200 個基點——從 13.1% 增加到 15.2% 超過 200 個基點，而且我們在調味醬方面同比增加了 100 個基點，我們看到了兩者在本季度的 2 個月內顯著增長的那些。我不會引用確切的數字。我們將在下一次電話會議上討論這個問題，但這些分配收益目前正在消費中發揮作用，最重要的是，對我們來說，家庭滲透率收益正在發揮作用。

Got it. That's great to hear. I appreciate that detail. And then just, Chris, could you just briefly walk us through some of the puts and takes around gross margin for '23? Obviously, you've got presume pricing and productivity. That sounds like it's going to take care of the mid-single-digit inflation that you're looking for, for the coming year. What are the things should we think about? Because in theory, I would think that the potential for gross margin recovery, maybe I would have thought it could even be greater than moderate, but I'm probably not taking into account some things.

知道了。聽到這個消息我很高興。我很欣賞這個細節。然後，克里斯，你能否簡單地向我們介紹一些看跌期權並獲得 23 年的毛利率？顯然，您已經獲得了假定的定價和生產力。這聽起來像是要解決你正在尋找的來年的中個位數通貨膨脹。我們應該思考哪些事情？因為從理論上講，我認為毛利率恢復的潛力，也許我認為它甚至可能大於溫和，但我可能沒有考慮到一些事情。

So we -- as we sit here today, first of all, we're very pleased with our H2 2022 versus H1 where we saw a material improvement in our gross margin. As we had, I talked about as our pricing actions took place, which were somewhat spread across the year and our productivity efforts that had been a little bit delayed earlier in the year, really starting to take wind in the back half and into 2023. So given that, we definitely see margin improvement across the first half of the year more than in the back half of the year. As a result of that, our EBITDA growth will be greater in the first half of the year than in the second half of the year. From an inflation point of view, we dealt with low double digits in 2022. We do see that moderating across 2023. Right now, we're in more of the mid-single-digit range on inflation. So we believe the pricing and productivity actions that we have in flight and/or our plan on the productivity front for the balance of the year will drive that margin expansion across the year, again, more heavily weighted to the first half. But you may have seen we did take some pricing late in the year last year. We just passed through our latest round here in February that's in the marketplace now. So we will see some additional pricing flow through in 2023. And if you think of the totality of 2023, net sales growth, we talked about low double digits, that will be high single-digit volume growth again and mid-single-digit pricing, again, weighted more heavily to the first half of the year.

因此，當我們今天坐在這裡時，首先，我們對 2022 年下半年與上半年的毛利率有了實質性的改善感到非常滿意。正如我們所做的那樣，我談到了我們的定價行動發生時，這些行動在今年有些分散，我們的生產力努力在今年早些時候被推遲了一點，真正開始在下半年和 2023 年風起雲湧。因此，鑑於此，我們肯定會看到今年上半年的利潤率改善幅度超過下半年。因此，我們上半年的 EBITDA 增長將高於下半年。從通貨膨脹的角度來看，我們在 2022 年處理了較低的兩位數。我們確實看到這種情況在 2023 年有所緩和。目前，我們的通貨膨脹更多地處於中等個位數範圍內。因此，我們相信我們正在進行的定價和生產力行動和/或我們在今年餘下時間在生產力方面的計劃將推動全年的利潤率增長，同樣，對上半年的影響更大。但你可能已經看到我們去年年底確實採取了一些定價。我們剛剛通過了 2 月份的最新一輪融資，現在已經上市。因此，我們將在 2023 年看到一些額外的定價流。如果你想想 2023 年的總體情況，淨銷售額增長，我們談到了低兩位數，這將再次是高個位數的銷量增長和中等個位數的定價，同樣，今年上半年的權重更大。

Our next question comes from the line of Peter Galbo of Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Peter Galbo。

Chris, just to start on the EBITDA guidance for the year. I think in your prepared remarks, you may be mentioned more of an even split this year on EBITDA versus '22. I just wanted to make sure I heard that correctly and if you can put any kind of numbers around that. And maybe just the second part to that question is, given the level of sales growth on an organic basis, I guess I'm a little surprised that there's not more of it flowing down to the EBITDA line. I think that that's probably more of a ramp, as you said, in some of the capabilities and marketing expense, but just anything you can do to help us on that line as well.

克里斯，只是開始今年的 EBITDA 指導。我認為在你準備好的發言中，你可能會被提到今年 EBITDA 與 22 年的平均分配。我只是想確保我聽到的是正確的，如果你能在這附近加上任何類型的數字。也許這個問題的第二部分是，考慮到有機銷售增長的水平，我想我有點驚訝沒有更多的增長流向 EBITDA 線。正如您所說，我認為這可能更像是在某些功能和營銷費用方面的提升，但您也可以做任何事情來幫助我們實現這一目標。

Yes. Sure. You're right on good point. We -- as I just mentioned, we do anticipate more of our profit growth and margin growth coming in the first half of the year. It has a little bit to do with how 2022 played out because of more midyear-end later pricing and productivity. That's what will drive us to more balance in 2023 versus 2022 across the year on the EBITDA line. In 2022, we were roughly 44-ish percent of EBITDA was in H1. I think you would see in 2023, we anticipate not all the way to 50-50, but getting closer to an even split maybe 47%. And then on the EBITDA line, you're right. It's the reinvestments that we will make in 2023 below gross margin as we did in 2022. And those are, again, within the marketing line where we see a significant up ramp in marketing supporting Rao's primarily and in more kind of historical legacy rates. R&D, we're investing behind. In fact, we just opened up a new facility or facility down in Austin, that's attached to our plant there. And so we're building out new capabilities there. We are adding. We have that in '22. We'll continue to add critical roles were needed. But more importantly, the tools required for those roles to be successful. We're the building relationships with retailers, things like master data, data mining and things like that. So we're continuing to make those investments below the line and that is why you will see not quite that the market expansion that on the EBITDA line that we anticipate on the gross margin line.

是的。當然。你說得對。正如我剛才提到的，我們確實預計今年上半年會有更多的利潤增長和利潤增長。由於更多的年中後期定價和生產力，這與 2022 年的表現有一點關係。這將促使我們在 2023 年與 2022 年全年在 EBITDA 線上取得更多平衡。 2022 年，我們大約有 44% 的 EBITDA 是在上半年。我想你會在 2023 年看到，我們預計不會一直達到 50-50，但可能會接近 47% 的平分。然後在 EBITDA 線上，你是對的。這是我們將在 2023 年進行的低於毛利率的再投資，就像我們在 2022 年所做的那樣。這些又是在營銷線內，我們看到營銷線的顯著上升主要支持 Rao 的主要和更多的歷史遺留率。研發，我們在後面投資。事實上，我們剛剛在奧斯汀開設了一個新設施或設施，它附屬於我們那裡的工廠。因此，我們正在那裡構建新的功能。我們正在添加。我們在 22 年就有了。我們將繼續添加需要的關鍵角色。但更重要的是，這些角色獲得成功所需的工具。我們正在與零售商建立關係，比如主數據、數據挖掘等等。因此，我們將繼續使這些投資低於線，這就是為什麼您不會看到我們在毛利率線上預期的 EBITDA 線上的市場擴張。

But importantly, Peter, this is Todd, just to build on that. And we've highlighted this, we are building a business for the long term, and we're building Rao's to $1 billion and beyond. And there's no question in our minds that Rao's is going to blow by that $1 billion net sales market. But the way to do that is to invest. And I'll just give you a perspective. In 2022, we invested an increased year-on-year and awareness for the Rao's brand, I'll just use that as a proxy, increased from 48% to 58%, 1,000 basis points, 10 full percentage points year-on-year. The way to add households is through mental and physical availability is making the brand more metal available through awareness of the brand and physically available through distribution. And our playbook is "that simple" but we have a growth obsessed organization, and we look to do whatever we can in order to drive awareness and distribution, notably of our leading brand across all the categories in which it competes. We have plans now in 2023 to invest a larger increase year-on-year in '23 versus '22 than we did in '22. So we are confident that will lead to similar chunky gains in household and awareness of the brand. And when you combine it with the distribution gains I just talked about, that's what's going to lead to the highly differentiated volume growth that we're driving, as you can see on Slide 7 that we put up on the website, vis-a-vis our peers, that's how you really drive volume. Now granted, we have a lower penetrated brand in Rao's, but it's now the #2 brand in regards to dollar share, but still only 6% in units, only 12% household penetration, only 58% in awareness, and we still have just major, major runway in getting our top SKUs to full distribution.

但重要的是，彼得，這是托德，只是以此為基礎。我們已經強調了這一點，我們正在建立一個長期的業務，我們正在將 Rao 的資產建設到 10 億美元甚至更多。在我們看來，毫無疑問，Rao's 將擊敗 10 億美元的淨銷售市場。但做到這一點的方法是投資。我只是給你一個觀點。 2022 年，我們對 Rao 品牌的投資和知名度同比增加，我只是用它作為代理，從 48% 增加到 58%，1,000 個基點，同比增加 10 個百分點.增加家庭的方法是通過精神和身體的可用性，通過品牌意識使品牌更容易獲得，並通過分銷使品牌更容易獲得。我們的劇本是“那麼簡單”，但我們有一個痴迷於增長的組織，我們希望盡我們所能來提高知名度和分銷，尤其是我們在所有競爭類別中的領先品牌。我們現在計劃在 2023 年與 22 年相比，23 年和 22 年的投資同比增長更大。因此，我們相信這將在家庭和品牌知名度方面帶來類似的巨大收益。當你將它與我剛才談到的分銷收益結合起來時，這將導致我們正在推動的高度差異化的銷量增長，正如你在我們發佈在網站上的幻燈片 7 上看到的那樣，相對於-與我們的同行相比，這才是您真正提高銷量的方式。誠然，我們在 Rao's 的品牌滲透率較低，但它現在是美元份額的第二大品牌，但銷量仍然只有 6%，家庭滲透率只有 12%，知名度只有 58%，我們仍然只有使我們的頂級 SKU 全面分銷的主要跑道。

Great. And then just maybe as a follow-up, I think Chris and Todd, there's a leverage target now in the slides, and you have some proceeds from the Birch sale. Can you just talk about use of proceeds and kind of how you're thinking about getting the leverage down, getting that interest expense burden down from where you are today?

偉大的。然後可能作為後續行動，我認為 Chris 和 Todd，幻燈片中現在有一個槓桿目標，並且您從 Birch 銷售中獲得了一些收益。你能談談收益的使用，以及你是如何考慮降低杠桿率，從今天的水平上降低利息支出負擔的嗎？

Yes, you bet. So we are very pleased with our progress on leverage, finishing the quarter at low 3x. I think we guided that to below 3.5x and $140 million sitting on our balance sheet at the end of the year. That really allows us a lot of flexibility, first and foremost, to reinvest behind our brands, our current brands to drive the core growth that we're seeing. That could take either to drive the top line as we expand our TAM expansion efforts. It could be to improve profitability, which we are -- whether that's capital or that's expensed to making those investments and to secure supply. We're growing at the rates we're growing, making sure that we can adequately meet the demand, it's important. We did improve -- increase our inventory levels across 2022 and as we closed out the year. We're in a very nice position on inventory. So that's where we will invest the money first and foremost, down the road, potential M&A if it makes business in financial sense as we've talked in the past. And then primarily to continue to delever. We've operated -- we managed our debt very prudently. We've operated typically 3, 3.5 up to 4%. We've gone higher than that when we've done acquisitions, but we're happy with where we are now servicing the debt. We'll continue to delever. We generate a lot of cash from the business. And so that's how we'll manage our capital allocation.

是的，你打賭。因此，我們對我們在槓桿方面取得的進展感到非常滿意，本季度結束時的槓桿率低至 3 倍。我認為我們在年底時將其引導至資產負債表上的 3.5 倍和 1.4 億美元以下。這真的讓我們有很大的靈活性，首先是重新投資我們的品牌，我們現有的品牌來推動我們所看到的核心增長。隨著我們擴大 TAM 擴張努力，這可能會推動收入增長。這可能是為了提高盈利能力，我們就是這樣——無論是資本還是進行這些投資和確保供應的費用。我們正在以我們正在增長的速度增長，確保我們能夠充分滿足需求，這很重要。我們確實有所改善——在 2022 年和年底時增加了我們的庫存水平。我們在庫存方面處於非常有利的位置。因此，如果它像我們過去所說的那樣在財務意義上開展業務，那麼這就是我們首先要投資的資金，潛在的併購。然後主要是繼續去槓桿化。我們已經經營——我們非常審慎地管理我們的債務。我們通常運營 3%、3.5% 到 4%。當我們進行收購時，我們已經比那更高了，但我們對我們現在償還債務的方式感到滿意。我們將繼續去槓桿化。我們從業務中產生了大量現金。這就是我們管理資本配置的方式。

Our next question comes from the line of Jason English of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Jason English。

We covered a lot of ground on. So I'm just going to throw out one question. The gross margins, how have the expansion initiatives influenced your gross margins? So can we go back in history and look at that as a reasonable reference point of where maybe you can get back to? Or has the push into frozen, which is notoriously a lower margin category and now Michael Angelo's into a lower price point. Should we expect that to be structurally mixing lower, still driving great gross profit growth, but just actually mixing the margin rate, perhaps lower than it otherwise would have been.

我們涵蓋了很多基礎知識。所以我只想拋出一個問題。毛利率，擴張計劃如何影響您的毛利率？那麼我們是否可以回顧歷史並將其視為您可以返回的合理參考點？或者有進軍冷凍，眾所周知，這是一個利潤率較低的類別，現在 Michael Angelo 進入了一個較低的價格點。我們是否應該期望它在結構上混合較低，仍然推動巨大的毛利潤增長，但實際上只是混合了利潤率，可能會低於本來的水平。

Yes. No, if you do go back in time, let's just go back to pre COVID even back to 2019, we were making great strides in our gross margins. You may recall, we talked about investments that we were making at our 2 plants that we run up in Colorado, which produces Nusa and in Austin, which produces our frozen Italian entrée. That gross margin has surpassed 30%. I think it was as high as 31%. The inflation has hit. We had the lag on pricing, productivity got delayed. We ran a 29.5% margin across H2 2022. So we're building our way back up to what we believe will be 30% and better as we progress. So we would have every intent that our efforts would get us back to those levels that we were at pre-COVID call it, the low 30s, may just take a little bit longer than we had originally anticipated. But we believe the activities, the initiatives we have in place and the opportunities ahead of us, we can get back there.

是的。不，如果你真的回到過去，讓我們回到 COVID 之前，甚至回到 2019 年，我們在毛利率方面取得了長足的進步。您可能還記得，我們談到了我們在科羅拉多州生產努沙和奧斯汀生產我們的冷凍意大利主菜的 2 家工廠進行的投資。該毛利率已超過30%。我認為它高達 31%。通貨膨脹已經襲來。我們在定價上滯後，生產力被推遲。我們在 2022 年下半年實現了 29.5% 的利潤率。因此，隨著我們的進步，我們正在努力回到我們認為將達到 30% 甚至更好的水平。因此，我們會盡一切努力讓我們回到 COVID 之前的水平，即 30 多歲的低水平，可能只需要比我們原先預期的時間長一點。但我們相信，我們已經開展的活動、採取的舉措以及擺在我們面前的機會，我們可以回到那裡。

Okay. That's helpful stuff. And I apologize, I got a little bit distracted during one of the questions you may have already addressed this, but 2 questions on debt. First, you generate a lot of cash, why are you not paying down debt given how high the rates are. And the $240 million that's locked, I had thought that it had been locked. I guess, we had read strike rate of 4%. So I think we've wrongly interpreted it to be a lock of a 4% rate. I think I heard you say today, it's 7.5% is what that lock component is capped at?

好的。那是有用的東西。我很抱歉，在您可能已經解決過的一個問題中，我有點分心，但有 2 個關於債務的問題。首先，你產生了大量現金，鑑於利率有多高，你為什麼不償還債務。而被鎖定的 2.4 億美元，我原以為它已經被鎖定了。我想，我們讀過 4% 的罷工率。所以我認為我們錯誤地將其解釋為鎖定 4% 的利率。我想我今天聽到你說，鎖定組件的上限是 7.5%？

That's right. The floating portion is 3.5% LIBOR is locked at 4%. So that's a total of 7.5%. And then on the paying down of debt, we -- again, the cash that we do have, it does give us great flexibility. We're holding on to it. By the way, we do have a pretty good rate on it as it's just where it's sitting today. As we progress, we will -- and we generate cash, we will make those decisions on yet. Do we go back and truly delever that? Do we continue to hold on to it. We'll make the most, we think is the highest use of that cash. And again, right now, we like the flexibility that it provides us.

這是正確的。浮動部分為 3.5% LIBOR 鎖定在 4%。所以總共是 7.5%。然後在償還債務方面，我們 - 再一次，我們擁有的現金確實給了我們很大的靈活性。我們堅持下去。順便說一句，我們確實對它有一個很好的評價，因為它就在今天的位置。隨著我們的進步，我們將 - 我們會產生現金，我們將做出這些決定。我們要回去真正去槓桿化嗎？我們是否繼續堅持下去。我們會做最多的，我們認為是對現金的最高利用。同樣，現在，我們喜歡它為我們提供的靈活性。

Our next question comes from the line of Robert Moskow of Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自 Crédit Suisse 的 Robert Moskow。

I guess one question is, I seem to remember you had some supply chain disruption in first half of 2022 last year having to do with storms, I think, in Texas at a supplier. Can you quantify how much of an easy comp that provides? And remind me what quarter it was. Any dollar amount to that?

我想有一個問題是，我似乎記得你在去年 2022 年上半年與暴風雨有關，我想是在德克薩斯州的一家供應商那裡。你能量化提供多少簡單的補償嗎？並提醒我現在是哪個季度。有多少美元？

Yes. Thanks, Rob. Yes, that was the winter storm down in the Austin area. So it impacted our frozen business. And then we also had an event at our Pasta provider, which is also in Austin. So we were struggling to get pass for the dinner as well. It was really. And then by the way, there is Omicron as well in Q1. So all of those really hit us at the end of the first quarter, but more importantly, into the second quarter, which is when we canceled all of our promotions. So I don't think you'll see an impact in Q1. Across Q2, there will be, again, I can't call it material, but we are back up and running now. Our service levels are in good shape on frozen. The -- we've talked a lot in the past about the investments we're making down that Austin plan to automate our manufacturing lines that have gotten delayed to the back part of 2022 and really all the way almost to the end of the year. The great news there is those lines are now up and running, and we're starting to really see the benefits of that taking the hourly headcount out of the plant, a boost to capacity. So that's going to -- that's a great tailwind for us in 2023. But I would not model in a material impact for whatever volume was lost last year in Q2.

是的。謝謝，羅布。是的，那是奧斯汀地區的冬季風暴。所以它影響了我們的冷凍業務。然後我們還在奧斯汀的麵食供應商那裡舉辦了一場活動。所以我們也在努力獲得晚餐的通行證。這是真的。順便說一句，第一季度也有 Omicron。所以所有這些在第一季度末真正打擊了我們，但更重要的是，進入第二季度，我們取消了所有促銷活動。所以我認為你不會在第一季度看到影響。在第二季度，我不能再一次稱其為材料，但我們現在已經恢復並運行了。我們的服務水平在冷凍時處於良好狀態。 - 我們過去談了很多關於我們正在進行的投資，奧斯汀計劃使我們的生產線自動化，這些生產線已經推遲到 2022 年下半年，實際上一直推遲到年底.好消息是這些生產線現在已經啟動並運行，我們開始真正看到將每小時員工人數從工廠中剔除的好處，從而提高產能。所以這將 - 這對我們 2023 年來說是一個巨大的順風。但我不會對去年第二季度損失的任何數量產生實質性影響進行建模。

What about EBITDA?

EBITDA 呢？

I would say the same thing. The sales were worth that high. We didn't really experience any incremental cost during that time, again, that I would call significant. So I would not either top line or EBITDA, I would not assess a large dollar impact for that from the storm last year.

我會說同樣的話。銷售額值那麼高。在那段時間裡，我們並沒有真正經歷任何增量成本，同樣，我稱之為顯著。因此，我不會評估收入或 EBITDA，我不會評估去年風暴對美元的巨大影響。

Okay. Well, it felt material last year, so I figured I would ask. A second question. Regarding this promotion you did with a non-measured channel customer in fourth quarter, is this a really big customer? And why you decide to do it? And are you going to do it again in 2023? I just want to make sure it's not creating a tough comparison in 2023.

好的。好吧，去年感覺很重要，所以我想我會問。第二個問題。關於四季度你們對一個非實測渠道客戶做的這個促銷，這個是真的大客戶嗎？為什麼你決定這樣做？你打算在 2023 年再次這樣做嗎？我只是想確保它不會在 2023 年進行艱難的比較。

Hi, Rob, it's Todd. Well, I mean I know it's -- I guess my thought is like, first of all, the only reason we're talking about it unmeasured versus measured is because of the difference in net sales and whatever. It's -- I mean our philosophy is I want you -- we, our team wants ubiquitous distribution of sauce in every single outlet in which the consumer shops. And some of those customers normally some that are in the unmeasured universe. Those come -- those are big volume events. So I -- while I understand what's behind your question, I've never been one to strategically think about, hey, I've done it in this quarter, and now we need to lap it next year. I just -- at the end of the day, we get the right distribution in the right places and the right events and then we just need to figure out how to grow our business. year-on-year every quarter and every year. So I know that's not a perfect to answer your question. I'm just saying that right now, we are just looking to make sure that we have fully ubiquitous distribution of rails and all the items. We're still under distributed vis-a-vis our peers 12 average items versus 20 for the competition, 58% awareness versus 90-plus percent for the competition. And if we have the opportunities to run some large events to get what we call the world's best tasting pasta sauce into more consumers' mouths, we will do that. And if that causes us some indigestion in regards to lapping in Q4, we'll then so be it our team is up to it. I don't mean to be flip it all with you, Rob, on that, but that is kind of our mindset.

嗨，羅布，我是托德。好吧，我的意思是我知道它是 - 我想我的想法是，首先，我們談論未衡量與衡量的唯一原因是因為淨銷售額和其他方面的差異。這是 - 我的意思是我們的理念是我需要你 - 我們，我們的團隊希望在消費者購物的每個商店中無處不在地分發醬汁。其中一些客戶通常是在無法測量的宇宙中。那些來了——那些是大容量事件。所以我 - 雖然我明白你的問題背後是什麼，但我從來沒有從戰略上考慮過，嘿，我已經在這個季度完成了，現在我們需要在明年完成它。我只是 - 在一天結束時，我們在正確的地方和正確的事件中獲得正確的分配，然後我們只需要弄清楚如何發展我們的業務。每季度和每年同比。所以我知道這不是回答你問題的完美方法。我只是說現在，我們只是想確保我們擁有完全無處不在的鐵軌和所有物品的分佈。相對於我們的同行，我們的平均分佈仍為 12 項，而競爭對手為 20 項，認知度為 58%，而競爭對手為 90% 以上。如果我們有機會舉辦一些大型活動，讓我們稱之為世界上最美味的意大利麵醬進入更多消費者的口中，我們就會這樣做。如果這讓我們對第四季度的圈速有些消化不良，那麼我們的團隊就可以了。羅布，我並不是要和你討論這一切，但這是我們的心態。

And Rob, I'll just add to that as well. It was a -- it was a real enhancement to an event and a little bit of shift in timing but it was an overwhelmingly successful event. And you might have seen in our -- in the comments we just made previously, we do -- we are guiding to low double-digit top line growth both in H1 and H2. So just to support Todd's comments, we're not seeing that as an overlap that we can overlap.

Rob，我也將補充一點。這是一個 - 這是對事件的真正增強，並且在時間上有一點變化，但它是一個壓倒性的成功事件。你可能已經看到——在我們之前發表的評論中，我們確實做到了——我們正在指導 H1 和 H2 的兩位數低收入增長。因此，為了支持托德的意見，我們不認為這是我們可以重疊的重疊。

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Lavery of Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Michael Lavery。

Just want to come back to the Michael Angelo's sauce. Could you touch on how that's sourced? And if it's through La Regina? And if it's not, does it have favorability on costs or more volatility or perhaps both? How should we just think about the cost profile on the supply chain for that?

只想回到 Michael Angelo 的醬汁。你能談談它的來源嗎？如果是通過 La Regina？如果不是，它是否對成本有利或波動性更大或兩者兼而有之？我們應該如何考慮供應鏈的成本概況？

Sure. Sourced through La Regina, no similar volatility that Rao's sauce would have as emphasized before. Michael, first of all, good to be talking with you, Michael. different formula than Rao's in regards to a lot of different attributes. It is worth to highlight. Rao's used a very specific breed of Italian San Marzano tomatoes. Michael Angelo's uses what we call just buying ripened Italian tomatoes, a shorter cook time, different sort of ingredient spec, et cetera, with the herbs and seasonings, olive oil, et cetera, that's different -- all different from Rao's. That said, it is a slow simmered kettle cook sauce that's highly different than mainstream/private label.

當然。通過 La Regina 採購，沒有 Rao 的醬汁像之前強調的那樣具有類似的波動性。邁克爾，首先，很高興與你交談，邁克爾。在許多不同的屬性方面與 Rao 的公式不同。值得強調的是。 Rao 使用了一種非常特殊的意大利 San Marzano 番茄品種。 Michael Angelo's 使用我們所謂的只購買成熟的意大利西紅柿，更短的烹飪時間，不同種類的配料規格等等，以及香草和調味料，橄欖油等等，這些都是不同的 - 與 Rao's 完全不同。也就是說，這是一種慢燉鍋煮醬，與主流/自有品牌截然不同。

And would it be fair to say that it's similarly attractive economics relative to its price point at least where even if it's still from La Regina, it's got a different recipe and different things that allow for -- it's got a better cost profile than Rao's? Is that's fair.

可以公平地說，相對於它的價格點，它在經濟上同樣具有吸引力，至少即使它仍然來自拉里賈納，它有不同的配方和不同的東西——它的成本概況比 Rao 的更好？這公平嗎。

That's fair.

這還算公平。

And can you just touch on Rao's share? I know you gave the volume share. You had the dollar share, I might have missed it, but could you give that? And then just remind us some of the seasonal drivers there? Because I know your competitive set has different, at least ways they approach it that can drive some share fluctuations for you. Can you just remind us how to think about how it cadence can evolve that way?

你能談談 Rao 的分享嗎？我知道你給出了體積份額。你有美元份額，我可能錯過了，但你能給嗎？然後提醒我們那裡的一些季節性司機？因為我知道你的競爭群體有不同，至少他們處理它的方式可以為你帶來一些份額波動。您能否提醒我們如何思考節奏如何以這種方式發展？

Sure. We ended the full year at a 14.7% dollar share, higher than that in the quarter. It's interesting you may I'm so used to working on some other seasonal businesses like Halloween candy or even pet treats that I don't really think of shots, but it is. There is a seasonal element to us. I don't mean to joke. I'm just sort of thinking back on my history just came flashing before my eyes in regards to all the categories that I've worked on. But I mean, I think just like -- I mean you're seeing a little bit of a phasing more towards Q4 and Q1 colder months versus warmer months, but we still have a pretty darn robust business through Q2 and Q3. If you sort of look at the phasing of consumption data, all other things kind of constant. Now it's difficult because Rao's is just on a constant uptick of increased awareness every quarter-on-quarter increased household penetration due to distribution. But like-for-like category, et cetera, you're seeing a little bit more in the Q4, Q1 than Q2, Q3. And Chris calls about that Okay. I thought he's looking at me.

當然。我們以 14.7% 的美元份額結束了全年，高於本季度。有趣的是，您可能已經習慣了從事其他一些季節性業務，例如萬聖節糖果甚至寵物零食，所以我並沒有真正想到鏡頭，但確實如此。我們有季節性因素。我不是開玩笑。我只是在回想我的歷史，這些歷史剛剛在我眼前閃現，涉及我所從事的所有類別。但我的意思是，我認為就像——我的意思是你看到第四季度和第一季度較冷的月份與較暖的月份相比有更多的分階段，但我們在第二季度和第三季度的業務仍然非常強勁。如果你看一下消費數據的階段性，所有其他事情都是不變的。現在這很困難，因為 Rao's 只是在不斷提高意識，每個季度都因分銷而增加家庭滲透率。但是類似的類別，等等，你在第四季度、第一季度看到的比第二季度、第三季度多一點。克里斯為此打電話 好吧。我以為他在看我。

Our next question comes from the line of Jon Andersen of William Blair.

我們的下一個問題來自威廉·布萊爾的喬恩·安徒生。

Just a couple of quick ones. Wondering if you could talk a little bit more about the gross margin cadence through the year. Are you expecting kind of a sequential gross margin rate improvement quarter-by-quarter as you move through the year? And then on the OpEx line, is there anything for us to consider when you talk about incremental investment spending behind brand building and R&D, is there any particular kind of cadence to that or timing-related factors that we should be considering as well? Or is it more kind of spread evenly across the year?

只是幾個快速的。想知道你是否可以多談談全年的毛利率節奏。您是否期望隨著這一年的推移，毛利率會逐季提高？然後在 OpEx 線上，當您談論品牌建設和研發背後的增量投資支出時，我們有什麼需要考慮的嗎？是否有任何特定類型的節奏或我們應該考慮的與時間相關的因素？還是更均勻地分佈在一年中？

Yes, sure. Thanks. On gross margin, I think the main point there is that the majority of the increase, and there will be a strong increase in the first half of the year year-over-year. And I think H1 will look more like H2 2022. And then as you cross over the year, you are, the inflation that we're going to be seeing here in 2023, which is agro products, paperboard, things like that, that you're hearing about tomatoes, for example, fruit. It really is spread pretty evenly across the year because it's coming out of the new crop season that would have hit us across the Q4 into this year. So the inflation mid-single-digit, pretty much across the year. We get the benefit of that pricing tailwind in the first half of the year. So that's how I think about gross margins. And then on EBITDA and investments below OpEx, we have traditionally our highest -- we've had more back half loaded our marketing efforts. I think you'll see that's going to be more spread evenly across the year. Other than that, I think it will be pretty much the same type of cadence that you would have seen in prior years across our OpEx, but with more marketing across the first half of the year as a percent of the total marketing spend.

是的，當然。謝謝。關於毛利率，我認為主要的一點是大部分的增長，而且今年上半年同比會有強勁增長。而且我認為 H1 看起來更像是 2022 年下半年。然後當你跨過這一年時，你就是我們將在 2023 年在這裡看到的通貨膨脹，這是農產品、紙板等類似的東西，你聽說西紅柿，例如水果。它在全年的分佈非常均勻，因為它即將進入新的農作物季節，而新的農作物季節將在今年第四季度對我們造成影響。因此，通貨膨脹率幾乎全年都處於中等個位數。我們在今年上半年受益於定價順風。這就是我對毛利率的看法。然後在 EBITDA 和低於 OpEx 的投資方面，我們傳統上是最高的——我們已經完成了一半的營銷工作。我想你會看到這一年的分佈會更加均勻。除此之外，我認為這將與前幾年在我們的 OpEx 中看到的節奏幾乎相同，但今年上半年的營銷佔總營銷支出的百分比更高。

That's helpful. One quick one follow-up. Just any color on noosa. Obviously, Rao's is the crown jewel here and performing extremely well. Just wondering what your expectations are for and plans are for kind of noosa in 2023 and maybe how some of the TAM expansion work that you've done over the past 12 to 18 months or kind of how you're thinking about that at this point?

這很有幫助。一快一跟進。 noosa 上的任何顏色。顯然，Rao's 是這裡的皇冠上的明珠，表現非常出色。只是想知道您對 2023 年的 noosa 的期望和計劃是什麼，也許您在過去 12 到 18 個月中所做的一些 TAM 擴展工作如何進行，或者您目前對此有何看法？

Hi, Jon. This is Todd. So a couple of things. We're -- so headline is we're pleased with noosa. We grew the brand 0.3% net sales in fourth quarter. We've averaged now 3 years at about a 5% CAGR on the noosa brand, been a nice mid-single-digit contributor. And I think I've mentioned this on previous calls, it has been, quite honestly, a really very good acquisition for us. Some of the areas you full visibility to is the dramatic improvement of profitability from when we acquired the business to call it a year ago, pre increase in milk pricing that really benefited us immensely. And sort of a turbo boost to help fund the growth in Rao's. So noosa has been a real nice acquisition for us. The dollar consumption growth very consistent around low to mid-single digits all year even as the full contribution from pricing increased. We're going to continue to make sure that this brand is a growth contributor. We did, as I think we talked on the last call, we've worked in the promotional plan, et cetera, to ensure that we've got consumption growth headed into next year, but it's -- obviously, the yogurt category is different, and it's unique in regards to its competitiveness. But noosa, as we've talked before, is a highly differentiated brand. It's a taste led yogurt. We unapologetically talk that and truck with that in regards to while other competitors are taking the taste out of you, we're putting taste it. And that's why it's been a consistent nice mid-single-digit growth contributor to us. And we have similar expectations for that business this year and beyond. 

嗨，喬恩。這是托德。所以有幾件事。我們 - 所以標題是我們對 noosa 感到滿意。我們在第四季度將該品牌的淨銷售額增長了 0.3%。現在，我們在 noosa 品牌上平均 3 年的複合年增長率約為 5%，是一個不錯的中個位數貢獻者。我想我在之前的電話中已經提到過這一點，老實說，這對我們來說是一次非常好的收購。您完全可以看到的一些領域是，自一年前我們收購這家公司以來，盈利能力得到了顯著提高，牛奶價格的提前上漲確實使我們受益匪淺。以及某種程度上的渦輪增壓，以幫助為 Rao's 的增長提供資金。所以 noosa 對我們來說是一次非常好的收購。儘管定價的全部貢獻有所增加，但全年美元消費增長非常穩定，保持在中低個位數左右。我們將繼續確保這個品牌是增長的貢獻者。正如我認為我們在上次電話會議上談到的那樣，我們已經制定了促銷計劃等，以確保我們的消費增長進入明年，但很明顯，酸奶類別是不同的, 它在競爭力方面是獨一無二的。但是，正如我們之前所說，noosa 是一個高度差異化的品牌。這是一種味道主導的酸奶。我們毫無歉意地談論這一點，並與此相關，而當其他競爭對手正在從您身上奪走品味時，我們正在品嚐它。這就是為什麼它一直是我們的中等個位數增長貢獻者。我們對今年及以後的業務也有類似的期望。

In regards to the TAM launch on Gelato, I'd say the headline there is the mix. The results have been mixed. It is done honestly well in a variety of customers and some customers and hasn't performed as well. Ice cream is also a different category. As I've always said, that was a smaller large from us difference than something that albeit this year as we're launching pizza. But we're constantly fine-tuning. We've got a large variety of customers that have accepted the 3 new items that we're launching this year, using Cream lemon bar and mid chocolate chip. So we've got a variety of customers now that have all 7 of our items on shelf. But unfortunately, we have some customers that don't have some of the ice cream on shelf and we're going to continue to support that initiative, drive it forward, learn as we go, not really a meaningful indicator of like our sales for this year or whatever else, but we think it's an important one for noosa. What else can I tell you there, Jon?

關於 TAM 在 Gelato 上的發布，我想說標題是混合的。結果喜憂參半。它在各種客戶和一些客戶中誠實地完成得很好，並且表現不佳。冰淇淋也是一個不同的類別。就像我一直說的那樣，與我們今年推出比薩餅時相比，這與我們的差異要小得多。但我們一直在進行微調。我們有各種各樣的客戶接受了我們今年推出的 3 種新產品，使用奶油檸檬條和中等巧克力片。所以我們現在有各種各樣的客戶，他們把我們所有的 7 件商品都放在了貨架上。但不幸的是，我們有一些客戶沒有貨架上的一些冰淇淋，我們將繼續支持該計劃，推動它向前發展，邊走邊學，這並不是一個真正有意義的指標，比如我們的銷售額今年或其他任何一年，但我們認為這對 noosa 來說很重要。我還能告訴你什麼，喬恩？

No, that's great. Super helpful. I appreciate all the color and good luck going forward.

不，那太好了。超級有幫助。我很欣賞所有的顏色，祝你好運。

Jon, I just want one clarification on the sequencing of gross margin in the first half of the year. Just note Q1 historically and will continue to be the lower margin quarter because it's our highest promotional quarter. So I think the rate of improvement across Q1 and Q2 versus last year Q1, Q2 will be similar, but we'll still see Q1 as the lowest overall margin quarter for the year.

喬恩，我只想澄清一下今年上半年的毛利率排序。請注意歷史上的第一季度，並將繼續成為利潤率較低的季度，因為這是我們最高的促銷季度。因此，我認為第一季度和第二季度與去年第一季度、第二季度相比的改善率將是相似的，但我們仍將第一季度視為今年整體利潤率最低的季度。

Our next question comes from the line of Sarang Vora of Telsey Group.

我們的下一個問題來自 Telsey Group 的 Sarang Vora。

When you look at Rao's as a $1 billion brand, how do you think the mix of sauce versus outside the sauce categories, all these frozen pizzas stuff look like in a $1 billion pie that you have? And then my second question is the outside the sauce category at Rao's growing very strong past several quarters. I mean is it fair to assume that these categories will contribute almost half of the Rao's growth in '23?

當你將 Rao's 視為一個價值 10 億美元的品牌時，你如何看待醬料與醬料類別之外的混合，所有這些冷凍比薩餅的東西在你擁有的價值 10 億美元的餡餅中看起來如何？然後我的第二個問題是 Rao 在過去幾個季度增長非常強勁的醬料類別之外。我的意思是假設這些類別將貢獻 Rao 在 23 年增長的近一半是否公平？

Sure. So Chris can the second point, but good talking to you. This is Todd. So it Sauces about 85% of Rao's today, using rough math based on our detailed modeling techniques. I'm just being a I would assume that we get to $1 billion. You're talking so about 70%, 75%. But if you just look at that where sauces today where sauce will be $1 billion. I mean, sauce is going to be still a major growth driver of our growth. And on top of that, you've got -- we haven't talked a lot on this call on the Birch heads, which are all still doing very, very well. And on the side, the Birch heads which we talk about newer, I mean this is the fourth year of suit. This is the third, fourth year depending on when you use the exact start date of frozen. Trico's been in market now for almost 4 years. So these beaches have been there for a while, but they're all growing robustly. That combined amount of move of retail sales last year is at $110 million, up 45% versus prior year. So those are all ticking up. And then we've got Pizza, which is a $6.5 billion category. I mean a 2 share of frozen pizza is -- you can get the math, that's a sizable business for us, and that's what we have our sights on. And one area that I'll talk about pizza that's important I'm sure you've read on other calls from some of those that are in the delivered pizza business. I mean we've launched out there, as we talked about in the script, our frozen pizza could not be testing any better than it's testing now. It's been in test for a while with 4 retailers, and it is a super premium price. It's roughly $1,299. Shelf promoted down a little bit below that, but that has significantly less today than what has delivered pie cost to your home because of the inflation, and delivery fees and everything else going on. 

當然。所以克里斯可以說第二點，但很高興與您交談。這是托德。因此，使用基於我們詳細建模技術的粗略數學，它滿足了今天 Rao 大約 85% 的需求。我只是一個我假設我們達到 10 億美元。你說的是 70%、75%。但如果你只看今天的醬汁，醬汁的價值將達到 10 億美元。我的意思是，醬汁仍將是我們增長的主要增長動力。最重要的是，你已經 - 我們在 Birch 頭上的這次電話會議上沒有談太多，他們仍然做得非常非常好。另一方面，我們談論的較新的 Birch 頭，我的意思是這是西裝的第四年。這是第三年，第四年取決於你什麼時候使用凍結的確切開始日期。 Trico 現已上市近 4 年。所以這些海灘已經存在了一段時間，但它們都在強勁增長。去年零售銷售額的總變動額為 1.1 億美元，比上年增長 45%。所以這些都在增加。然後我們有披薩，這是一個價值 65 億美元的類別。我的意思是，一份 2 份冷凍披薩是——你可以算出，這對我們來說是一項規模可觀的業務，這就是我們的目標。我要談論的一個重要領域是比薩餅，我相信你已經讀過來自比薩餅外賣業務的一些人的其他電話。我的意思是我們已經推出了，正如我們在劇本中所說的那樣，我們的冷凍披薩的測試不能比現在更好。它已經在 4 家零售商處測試了一段時間，而且是超高的價格。大約是 1,299 美元。貨架價格略低於此價格，但由於通貨膨脹、送貨費和其他一切，今天的貨架價格明顯低於將餡餅送到你家的成本。

So you can get an absolutely delicious artisan super premium pizza made by Rao's in the frozen sector, and we believe that's a clear reason of what's driving the success of that business is the fact that it's a real value versus a home delivered pizza today. And that wasn't necessarily the case 4 years ago. So if you look at the $1 billion, you've got sauce being a core part of that. You've got the Birch head, you've got pizza. And then you've got some other elements. We've talked some light international opportunities for Rao's , et cetera, but I will still go back. The #1 driver is sauce. Why awareness is still only 58%, albeit up 10 percentage points last year. Household penetration only up 12%, although that's up significantly, we're raising an uptick in the first 2 months of the year, unit share only a 6%, albeit growing significantly year-on-year. The last point I'll add is that we grew in every -- we basically grew robustly household penetration and share in nearly every single measure geography of the United States last year. We were also the only brand in Q4 that grew across every income demographic and generational cohort versus the other top 4 brands. So we are maniacally focused on growing that sauce business over an upward, and that's a key reason why we've got momentum heading into the year and that we feel very good about the double-digit top and bio line guidance for 2023.

因此，您可以獲得 Rao's 在冷凍行業製作的絕對美味的工匠超優質比薩餅，我們相信這是推動該業務成功的一個明顯原因，即與今天的家庭送貨比薩餅相比，它具有真正的價值。 4 年前情況並非如此。所以如果你看看這 10 億美元，你就會發現醬汁是其中的核心部分。你有白樺頭，你有披薩。然後你有一些其他元素。我們已經為 Rao 等人討論了一些輕微的國際機會，但我仍然會回去。 #1 驅動程序是 sauce。為什麼意識仍然只有 58%，儘管去年上升了 10 個百分點。家庭普及率僅增長了 12%，儘管增幅顯著，但我們在今年前 2 個月實現了增長，單位份額僅為 6%，儘管同比增長顯著。我要補充的最後一點是，我們在每一個方面都有增長——去年我們基本上在美國的幾乎每一個衡量標準中都強勁增長了家庭滲透率和份額。與其他四大品牌相比，我們也是第四季度唯一一個在所有收入人群和世代人群中都有增長的品牌。因此，我們瘋狂地專注於向上發展醬料業務，這是我們進入今年勢頭強勁的一個關鍵原因，我們對 2023 年兩位數的最高和生物線指導感到非常滿意。

Thank you. I'm showing no further questions at this time. I'd let turn the call back over to Todd Lachman for any closing remarks.

謝謝。我現在沒有進一步的問題。我會把電話轉回給托德·拉赫曼，聽取任何結束語。

Awesome. Thanks, again, everybody, for joining us and showing interest in our story. We look forward to engaging with many of you in the coming weeks. Please feel free to reach out to Josh for follow-up discussions until then, have a great evening and take care.

驚人的。再次感謝大家加入我們並對我們的故事表現出興趣。我們期待在接下來的幾週內與你們中的許多人進行交流。請隨時聯繫 Josh 進行後續討論，祝您度過愉快的夜晚並保重。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.

謝謝。女士們，先生們，今天的會議到此結束。謝謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。祝你有美好的一天。