Southern Co (SOMN) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is Julian, and I will be your conference operator for today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Southern Company's third quarter 2024, earnings call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

午安.我叫朱利安，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。此時此刻，我謹歡迎大家參加南方公司 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

It is now my pleasure to introduce Mr. Greg McLaren. Thank you. You may begin.

現在我很高興向大家介紹格雷格·麥克拉倫先生。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Thank you, Julian. Good afternoon, and welcome to Southern Company's third quarter 2024 earnings call. Joining me today are Chris Womack, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Southern Company; and Dan Tucker, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，朱利安。下午好，歡迎參加南方公司 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。今天與我一起出席的還有南方公司董事長、總裁兼執行長 Chris Womack；和財務長丹·塔克。

Let me remind you that we will make forward-looking statements today, in addition to providing historical information. Various important factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements, including those discussed in our Form 10-K, Form 10-Q and subsequent filings.

讓我提醒您，除了提供歷史資訊外，我們今天還將發表前瞻性聲明。各種重要因素可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中所示的結果有重大差異，包括我們的表格 10-K、表格 10-Q 和後續文件中討論的結果。

In addition, we will present non-GAAP financial information on this call. Reconciliations to the applicable GAAP measure are included in the financial information we released this morning as well as the slides for this conference call, which are both available on our Investor Relations website at investor.southerncompany.com.

此外，我們將在本次電話會議上提供非 GAAP 財務資訊。我們今天早上發布的財務資訊以及本次電話會議的幻燈片中包含了對適用 GAAP 衡量標準的調節，這些資訊均可在我們的投資者關係網站 Investor.southerncompany.com 上取得。

I'll now turn the call over to Chris Womack.

我現在將把電話轉給克里斯·沃馬克。

Thank you, Greg. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us today.

謝謝你，格雷格。下午好，感謝您今天加入我們。

Our entire company, including our premier state-regulated electric gas and utilities, continued to perform well during the third quarter, especially as our dedicated employees across Southern Company came together as one team in response to Hurricane Helene. The resolve and the professionalism of our employees has never been more evident than was demonstrated through the recent storm restoration efforts in Georgia.

我們整個公司，包括我們主要的國家監管的電力、燃氣和公用事業，在第三季度繼續表現良好，特別是我們整個南方公司的敬業員工團結在一起，共同應對颶風海倫。我們員工的決心和專業精神在喬治亞州最近的風暴復原工作中得到了最明顯的體現。

Before Dan provides an overview of our financial results, I'd like to share our story from this unprecedented weather event. Hurricane Helene was a storm of historic magnitude. Its aftermath was met with an extraordinary response from our dedicated team across Southern Company, our mutual assistance partners, state and local first responders and emergency management agencies and government officials all across Georgia.

在丹概述我們的財務表現之前，我想先分享我們在這次前所未有的天氣事件中的故事。颶風海倫是一場歷史性的風暴。事件發生後，我們南方公司的專業團隊、我們的互助合作夥伴、州和地方急救人員、緊急管理機構以及喬治亞州各地的政府官員做出了非凡的反應。

Persistent rain, extreme flooding, and heavy winds resulted in what can only be characterized as devastation to many of the communities we serve, with the destruction of stretching hundreds of miles, impacting the Eastern two-thirdof the entire state.

持續的降雨、極端的洪水和強風對我們服務的許多社區造成了只能說是破壞，破壞範圍綿延數百英里，影響了整個州東部三分之二的面積。

Ultimately, the damage caused by Hurricane Helene was the most destructive in Georgia Power's 140-year history, exceeding the damage caused by the largest -- the three largest storms to impact Georgia Power's service territory combined. Helene entered Southern Georgia as a Category one hurricane and resulted in 53 out of the 159 counties in the state being declared major disaster areas by the Federal Energy -- Emergency Management Agency.

最終，颶風海倫造成的損失是喬治亞電力公司 140 年歷史上最具破壞性的，超過了影響喬治亞電力公司服務區域的最大的三場風暴造成的損失總和。海倫以一級颶風進入喬治亞州南部，導致該州 159 個縣中的 53 個縣被聯邦能源緊急事務管理局宣佈為重大災區。

With considerable damage to transmission infrastructure, nearly 12,000 damaged utility poles and some 1,500 miles of down wires, the equivalent of the distance between Atlanta and Phoenix, Arizona, our customers' experienced over 1.5 million outages in the wake of the storm.

由於輸電基礎設施遭到嚴重破壞，近12,000 根電線桿受損，地下電線長達約1,500 英里（相當於亞特蘭大和亞利桑那州菲尼克斯之間的距離），我們的客戶在風暴過後經歷了超過150 萬次停電。

With the support of resources from across North America, a workforce of well over 20,000 worked around the clock to safely reconnect customers through extremely difficult conditions. Commensurate with the devastation seen in our communities, much of our utility infrastructure was damaged beyond near repair, and a significant portion of our system in the affected regions require a complete rebuild.

在北美各地資源的支持下，超過 20,000 名員工全天候工作，在極其困難的條件下安全地重新連接客戶。與我們社區所遭受的破壞相稱，我們的許多公用事業基礎設施都遭到破壞，幾乎無法修復，而且受影響地區的系統很大一部分需要徹底重建。

Thanks to the contributions of our utility industry partners and especially thanks to the unwavering commitment of our own hard-working dedicated crews, many of whom live in the same communities and some of whom endure destruction to their own homes, the restoration and re-building efforts were 95% complete within eight days, with power restored to over 0.5 million customers within the first 48 hours. We are incredibly proud of our team's response, and eternally grateful to be a part of an industry that works so well together in times of need.

感謝我們的公用事業行業合作夥伴的貢獻，特別是感謝我們辛勤工作的敬業工作人員的堅定承諾，他們中的許多人生活在同一社區，其中一些人的家園遭到破壞，恢復和重建工作在八天內完成了95%，在最初的48 小時內為超過50 萬名客戶恢復了供電。我們對團隊的反應感到無比自豪，並永遠感激能成為在需要時如此良好合作的行業的一部分。

Many of the communities we are privileged to serve across Eastern Georgia have a long road ahead to recovery, Georgia Power, Atlanta Gas Light. Southern Company are contributing to organizations to aid these communities, and Georgia Power has taken additional steps to provide support and resources to our customers in Georgia.

我們有幸在喬治亞州東部服務的許多社區都有很長的路要走，例如喬治亞電力公司、亞特蘭大煤氣燈公司。南方公司正在為幫助這些社區的組織做出貢獻，喬治亞電力公司已採取額外措施為喬治亞州的客戶提供支援和資源。

In our business model, customers are at the center of everything we do. And our commitment to the communities and customers we serve has never been more important than in times like these. I am extremely proud of our team's exceptional efforts to clearly demonstrate that we are a citizen wherever we serve each and every day.

在我們的商業模式中，客戶是我們一切工作的中心。在這樣的時期，我們對所服務的社區和客戶的承諾從未如此重要。我對我們的團隊所做的傑出努力感到非常自豪，無論我們每天在哪裡提供服務，都清楚地表明我們是公民。

Dan, I'll now turn the call over to you for a financial update.

丹，我現在將電話轉給您，以了解最新的財務狀況。

Thanks, Chris, and good afternoon, everyone. Before I walk through the third quarter financial results, I'd like to briefly address the costs associated with the recovery efforts Chris just described related to Hurricane Helene.

謝謝克里斯，大家下午好。在詳細介紹第三季財務表現之前，我想先簡單介紹一下克里斯剛剛描述的與颶風海倫相關的恢復工作相關的成本。

The initial estimated cost for this historic storm-related restoration and rebuild is approximately $1.1 billion. The unprecedented destruction associated with this weather event, combined with impacts of inflation on the cost of contract labor, supplies, food, fuel and lodging, contribute to the overall cost.

這場與風暴相關的歷史性修復和重建的初步估計成本約為 11 億美元。這次天氣事件造成的前所未有的破壞，加上通貨膨脹對合約工、供應品、食品、燃料和住宿成本的影響，共同影響了整體成本。

Our estimate is subject to change over the next several months as estimates are replaced with bills from our mutual assistance partners as we complete the final cleanup of damaged equipment, and as we work to ensure the impacted areas are restored to meet our standards for long-term reliability. That is not to suggest that our estimate is likely to materially change, but rather to acknowledge that it takes time to fully capture the ultimate cost of such an extensive endeavor.

我們的估計可能會在接下來的幾個月內發生變化，因為隨著我們完成對受損設備的最終清理，並努力確保受影響的地區得到恢復以滿足我們的長期標準，估計將被我們的互助合作夥伴的帳單所取代。這並不是說我們的估計可能會發生重大變化，而是承認需要時間才能完全掌握如此廣泛的努力的最終成本。

Turning now to our financial results for the third quarter of 2024, our adjusted earnings were $1.43 per share, $0.01 higher than the third quarter of 2023. The primary drivers of our performance for the quarter compared to last year were continued investment in our state-regulated utilities and customer growth. This was mostly offset by higher interest, depreciation and other operating expenses.

現在來看看我們 2024 年第三季的財務業績，調整後的每股盈餘為 1.43 美元，比 2023 年第三季高出 0.01 美元。與去年相比，我們本季業績的主要驅動力是對國家監管公用事業的持續投資和客戶成長。這主要被利息、折舊和其他營運費用的增加所抵消。

And for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, our adjusted earnings per share were $3.56 compared with adjusted earnings per share of $3.01 for the same period in 2023. One of the largest drivers in our year-to-date results compared with the prior year is weather-related impacts from an extremely mild first half of 2023, contrasted with the weather effects we've experienced thus far in 2024. A complete reconciliation of the year-over-year earnings is included in the materials we released this morning.

截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日的九個月，我們的調整後每股收益為 3.56 美元，而 2023 年同期調整後每股收益為 3.01 美元。與前一年相比，我們今年迄今的業績的最大驅動因素之一是 2023 年上半年極其溫和的天氣相關影響，與 2024 年迄今為止我們經歷的天氣影響形成鮮明對比。我們今天早上發布的資料中包含了同比收益的完整核對錶。

Our adjusted EPS estimate for the fourth quarter is $0.49 per share, which, combined with our year-to-date performance, would represent full year adjusted earnings of $4.05 per share.

我們對第四季度調整後每股收益的預測為每股 0.49 美元，與今年迄今的業績相結合，全年調整後每股收益為 4.05 美元。

After excluding a 0.4% negative impact of lost sales that resulted from the damage caused by Hurricane Helene, weather-normalized total retail electricity sales were essentially flat compared with the third quarter of 2023.

在排除海倫颶風造成的 0.4% 銷售損失的負面影響後，天氣正常化的總零售售電量與 2023 年第三季基本持平。

The broad strength of the economy in the Southeast was exhibited in the quarter by strong electricity sales in the chemical, pipeline and transportation segments as well as data center power usage, which continued its positive trend, and was up 10% year-over-year.

本季度東南部經濟的廣泛實力體現在化工、管道和運輸領域的強勁售電量以及數據中心用電量，繼續保持積極趨勢，同比增長 10% 。

And while weather-normalized residential electricity usage per customer was slightly down in the quarter, we saw strong residential customer additions of 12,000 in our electric businesses and 7,000 new customers in our natural gas distribution businesses.

雖然本季每位客戶的天氣正常化住宅用電量略有下降，但我們的電力業務中的住宅客戶增加了 12,000 名，天然氣分銷業務中的新客戶增加了 7,000 名。

The economic development activity across our electric service territories remains robust, and our pipeline continues to grow at a historic pace. 42 companies either established or expanded operation in our service territory in the third quarter, generating 5,000-plus potential new jobs, and representing capital investments totaling approximately $2.6 billion.

我們整個電力服務領域的經濟發展活動仍然強勁，我們的管道繼續以歷史性的速度成長。第三季度，有 42 家公司在我們的服務區域設立或擴大業務，創造了 5,000 多個潛在的新就業機會，資本投資總額約為 26 億美元。

Alabama Power's economic activity this quarter represented its strongest quarter in several years, led by announcements in metals, renewable energy and the chemicals segment.

阿拉巴馬電力公司本季的經濟活動是幾年來最強勁的季度，其中金屬、再生能源和化學品領域的公告帶動了經濟活動。

The combined pipeline for new industrial and other large load commercial customers across our three-state electric utility footprint continues to grow. The upcoming quarterly large load economic development report to be filed with the Georgia Public Service Commission is expected to reflect that Georgia Power's potential load additions and its economic development pipeline have grown to over 36 gigawatts by the mid-2030s, with 8 gigawatts committed.

我們三個州電力公司足跡中的新工業和其他大負荷商業客戶的綜合管道繼續成長。即將向喬治亞州公共服務委員會提交的季度大負荷經濟發展報告預計將反映佐治亞電力公司的潛在負荷增加及其經濟發展管道到 2030 年代中期已增長到超過 36 吉瓦，其中已承諾 8 吉瓦。

Chris, I'll turn the call back over to you.

克里斯，我會把電話轉回給你。

Thanks, Dan. We have delivered exceptional operational and solid financial results through the first three quarters of the year, and we are well positioned to finish the year strong. Our team's resilience in the face of a historic storm highlights our dedication to the customers and the communities we are privileged to serve, and I am so extremely grateful and proud to be a part of their team.

謝謝，丹。今年前三個季度，我們取得了出色的營運業績和穩健的財務業績，並且我們已做好充分準備，以強勁的勢頭結束今年的業績。我們的團隊在面對歷史性風暴時所表現出的韌性凸顯了我們對客戶和我們有幸服務的社區的奉獻精神，我非常感激和自豪能夠成為他們團隊的一員。

It is certainly an exciting time for our great company and for this industry. With supportive states and constructive regulation, along with our portfolio of state-regulated electric and gas utilities, we are well positioned for the opportunity presented by this extraordinary energy demand growth our industry is projecting in the coming years.

對於我們偉大的公司和這個行業來說，這無疑是一個令人興奮的時刻。憑藉國家的支持和建設性監管，以及我們受國家監管的電力和天然氣公用事業組合，我們已做好充分準備，抓住我們行業預計未來幾年能源需求非凡增長所帶來的機會。

As we work to help our states grow and partner with the communities we are privileged to serve, our disciplined approach, combined with the orderly planning and regulatory processes across our utility service territories, should support mutual benefits for all of our stakeholders, including our existing customers. Let me conclude by saying, I am very excited about our future.

當我們努力幫助我們的州發展並與我們有幸服務的社區合作時，我們嚴格的方法，加上我們公用事業服務領域的有序規劃和監管流程，應該支持我們所有利益相關者的互惠互利，包括我們現有的利害關係人。最後我想說，我對我們的未來感到非常興奮。

Operator, we are now ready to take questions.

接線員，我們現在準備好回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) Carly Davenport, Goldman Sachs.

（操作員指示）卡莉·達文波特，高盛。

Maybe just to start on the storm cost side. I appreciate the color on the kind of $1.1 billion estimate at this point. Will all of that be deferred? And can you just talk through the process and the timing for filing for recovery of those costs in Georgia?

也許只是從風暴成本方面開始。我很欣賞目前 11 億美元估值的色彩。所有這些都會被推遲嗎？您能否談談在喬治亞州申請追回這些費用的流程和時間？

Yeah. And per usual, Carly, we don't want to get too far ahead of any upcoming regulatory processes or make assumptions about how the commission will ultimately decide to deal with it. Just I think it's good to acknowledge historically. They've been very constructive, and the recovery has been timely and balanced kind of the needs of the company and the customers.

是的。像往常一樣，卡莉，我們不想在任何即將到來的監管程序之前走得太遠，也不想對委員會最終決定如何處理它做出假設。只是我認為承認歷史是件好事。他們非常有建設性，恢復非常及時，並且平衡了公司和客戶的需求。

In terms of where we sit today, yeah, all the costs have been deferred. There is still work to do, not unlike just turning estimates into more firm numbers. Again, don't expect material changes there. There's -- we will also go through a process of determining, particularly based on the nature of this rebuild that occurred, not just restoration, how much of these dollars are ultimately capital dollars, essentially new assets, as opposed to the cost to support the crews, cost to simply rehang wires, those look -- would typically look more like O&M, but those will be deferred and potentially recovered in a different manner than the capital goes.

就我們今天的情況而言，是的，所有費用都已推遲。仍有工作要做，就像將估算轉換為更確定的數字一樣。再次強調，不要指望那裡會發生重大變化。我們還將經歷一個確定過程，特別是根據所發生的重建的性質，而不僅僅是恢復，這些美元中有多少最終是資本美元，本質上是新資產，而不是支持重建的成本。簡單地重新懸掛電線的成本，這些看起來通常更像是運營和維護，但這些將被推遲，並可能以與資本不同的方式回收。

Got it. Okay. That's super helpful. And then maybe just pivoting to the load growth side. I appreciate the updates there on the pipeline in Georgia.

知道了。好的。這非常有幫助。然後也許只是轉向負載增長方面。我很欣賞喬治亞州管道的最新情況。

Could you just talk a little bit about how that pipeline has developed and also the commitments? In the context of the upcoming IRP filing in Georgia, how are you thinking about the potential magnitude or mix of that filing, just based on what you've seen so far in terms of how that large load pipeline has developed? And how that pipeline has converted to actual customer commitments?

您能否簡單談談該管道的開發以及承諾？在喬治亞州即將提交 IRP 申請的背景下，僅根據您迄今為止所看到的大型負載管道的發展情況，您如何考慮該申請的潛在規模或組合？該管道如何轉化為實際的客戶承諾？

Yeah. That's a great question, Carly. So -- and again, without getting too far ahead of any processes or actual filings, the reason that Georgia Power is making this quarterly filing with the PSC was really to help all parties have a little bit better line of sight leading into the next formal process. And so since we began that process, we've seen not only momentum continue and the size of the pipeline, but we have, to your point, seen continued commitments within that pipeline.

是的。這是一個很好的問題，卡莉。因此，再次強調，在不超出任何流程或實際備案的情況下，喬治亞電力公司向 PSC 提交季度備案的原因實際上是為了幫助各方在進入下一個正式文件之前有更好的視野。因此，自從我們開始這個過程以來，我們不僅看到了勢頭的持續和管道的規模，而且就您而言，我們還看到了管道內的持續承諾。

So as we sit here today, again, we have 8,000 megawatts that have been committed by the kind of mid-2030 time frame, whereas at the time of our filing last fall with the Public Service Commission, that number was more like 3,600 megawatts. And so we're continuing to see that kind of progress.

因此，當我們今天再次坐在這裡時，我們已經承諾在 2030 年中期的時間範圍內發電 8,000 兆瓦，而去年秋天我們向公共服務委員會提交文件時，這個數字更像是 3,600 兆瓦。因此，我們將繼續看到這種進展。

Carly, one thing I would add, and we talk about it a lot as we go through kind of our narrative about how this process works and I talk a lot about our orderly processes. And I think, as you look forward to this next large load filing and then as the company prepares for the integrated resource planning process, I think that demonstrates that process that's in place to clearly demonstrate what's real and then how we price this and just how we work our way through bringing these projects online, but just working through an orderly process because there's a lot of activity up in the marketplace, but I think we owe it to our regulatory bodies, but also to all of our states to make sure we're being very diligent as we work through this process to bring these projects online.

卡莉，我要補充一件事，當我們講述這個過程如何運作時，我們談論了很多，我也談論了很多我們的有序過程。我認為，當您期待下一次大型負載歸檔，然後當公司準備綜合資源規劃流程時，我認為這表明該流程已經到位，可以清楚地展示什麼是真實的，然後我們如何定價以及如何定價我們努力將這些項目上線，但只是透過有序的過程進行，因為市場上有很多活動，但我認為我們應該感謝我們的監管機構，也應該感謝我們所有的州，以確保我們當我們完成這個過程以使這些在專案上線時，我們非常勤奮。

Shar Pourreza, Guggenheim Partners.

沙爾‧普爾雷扎，古根漢合夥人。

Chris, I just wanted to maybe start with Southern Power for a second, sort of this kind of push for resource adequacy being so front and center in almost every jurisdiction. I mean Southern Power is predominantly contracted, but I have to imagine kind of the offtakers want to stick with the assets.

克里斯，我只是想先從南方電力公司開始，這種對資源充足性的推動幾乎在每個司法管轄區都是如此前沿和中心。我的意思是，南方電力主要是承包的，但我必須想像承購者希望堅持使用這些資產。

Are you seeing kind of any opportunities around restriking the contracts and extending the tenors? Are you seeing opportunities as contracts roll off? And how do we think about pricing kind of in this environment and what it could also mean for Southern Power's growth?

您是否看到了重新簽訂合約和延長期限的機會？隨著合約到期，您是否看到了機會？我們如何考慮在這種環境下的定價以及這對南方電力的成長意味著什麼？

Yeah. Let me start, Shar, and just level set on Southern Power. So we've always taken approach to Southern Power to have it -- have a risk profile that looks and feels like the regulated business. So long-term contracts, creditworthy counterparties, we don't take fuel risk.

是的。莎爾，讓我開始，先談談南方電力。因此，我們一直向南方電力公司尋求幫助，使其擁有看起來和感覺上都像受監管企業的風險狀況。因此，長期合約、信譽良好的交易對手，我們不承擔燃料風險。

And so that portfolio, and in particular, if we focus in on the natural gas generation portfolio, is largely covered, I mean, 90%-plus covered through the end of this decade. And so it's not until then that you begin to have contracts that are up for renewal. Now obviously, we would have an opportunity to renew or extend to your point well before the end of the decade.

因此，該投資組合，特別是如果我們專注於天然氣發電投資組合，將在很大程度上得到覆蓋，我的意思是，到本十年末，將覆蓋 90% 以上。因此，直到那時您才開始簽訂需要續約的合約。現在顯然，我們將有機會在本世紀末之前更新或擴展您的觀點。

And so in that context, as we look at the current contract rates relative to what capacity values appear to be out in that time frame, they've essentially doubled relative to what they were. Again, this is a long-term opportunity to kind of improve the returns within Southern Power. So yes, there is great interest in that capacity.

因此，在這種情況下，當我們查看當前的合約費率相對於該時間範圍內的容量值時，它們基本上比原來翻了一番。同樣，這是提高南方電力回報率的長期機會。所以，是的，人們對這種能力很感興趣。

Beyond the existing assets, we're also getting pinged, if you will, continuously by customers, hoping to be able to add new assets, whether those be natural gas or renewables, whether that's in the Southeast or in other markets, particularly where we have renewables.

除了現有資產之外，如果您願意的話，我們還會不斷收到客戶的詢問，希望能夠添加新資產，無論是天然氣還是可再生能源，無論是在東南部還是在其他市場，特別是在我們的地方有再生能源。

And it's the same kind of potential customer mix that we have today. We serve a lot of load-serving entities. So investor-owned utilities, municipalities, co-ops. But we also, particularly in our renewable portfolio, serve a lot of large commercial and industrial customers directly through contract.

這與我們今天擁有的潛在客戶組合是一樣的。我們為許多負載服務實體提供服務。因此，投資者擁有公用事業、市政當局、合作社。但我們也透過合約直接為許多大型商業和工業客戶提供服務，特別是在再生能源產品組合中。

They may be in structured markets, but it's ultimately a contract with an individual customer. So we're exploring those too, but maintaining that same discipline I described on the front end, long-term contracts, creditworthy counterparties, no fuel risk.

他們可能處於結構化市場，但最終是與個人​​客戶簽訂的合約。因此，我們也在探索這些，但保持我在前端描述的相同紀律，長期合同，信譽良好的交易對手，無燃料風險。

Got it. But that discipline doesn't really curtail or put a ceiling on how big you expect Southern Power to get, because the opportunities are pretty sizable?

知道了。但這種紀律並沒有真正限製或限制你對南方電力公司規模的期望，因為機會相當大？

Yeah, I think that's right, Shar. And just historically, and I think even going forward, we are a regulated utility holding company, and we have this incredibly attractive complementary wholesale generation business that we've never wanted to get outsized relative to our retail business, our retail electric business or in gas business.

是的，我認為這是對的，莎爾。從歷史上看，我認為即使展望未來，我們也是一家受監管的公用事業控股公司，我們擁有極具吸引力的互補性批發發電業務，我們從來不希望其規模相對於我們的零售業務、零售電力業務或其他業務變得過大。

That said, the regulated utility business is growing so fast right now. I have no concerns about Southern Power's growth rate outstripping that.

也就是說，受監管的公用事業業務目前成長如此之快。我並不擔心南方電力的成長率會超過這個數字。

Just always remember, we talk about being disciplined. And just know that in the midst of all this opportunity, we will remain very disciplined as we move through this period.

永遠記住，我們談論的是紀律。要知道，在所有這些機會中，我們在度過這段時期時將保持非常自律。

Got it. Okay. Perfect. And then just lastly, just on follow-up at [Harley], just fine-tuning. Just Dan, do you have any sense, you've got to estimate cost number there. You said 1.1, it could change. But do you have any sense on how much of that could be capital versus O&M?

知道了。好的。完美的。最後，只是在[哈雷]的後續行動中，只是進行微調。只是丹，你有任何感覺嗎，你必須估算那裡的成本數字。你說1.1，它可能會改變。但您是否知道其中有多少可能是資本與維運？

And then how do we sort of think about the timing of that recovery going into a GRC as we're thinking about bill impact and customer affordability, right? So there's a bunch of things happening at once, and this is a big GRC coming up. So how do we sort of think about the risks there?

然後，當我們考慮帳單影響和客戶負擔能力時，我們如何考慮 GRC 復甦的時機，對吧？所以有很多事情同時發生，這是一個大型 GRC 即將到來。那我們要如何看待那裡的風險呢？

Yeah. On your first point, Shar, it's just too early to say. I think intuitively, we believe it will likely skew at least a little more capital than historically. But in terms of what that actually looks like, it's hard to say. And the reason that that's our belief is simply because of the magnitude of rebuilding that occurred in this storm.

是的。Shar，關於你的第一點，現在說還太早。我直覺地認為，我們相信它可能會比歷史上至少多一點的資本傾斜。但就實際情況而言，很難說。我們之所以有這樣的信念，只是因為這場風暴中重建工作的規模之大。

And then in terms of the process, again, you know us, and go back to Chris' comments. We're going to remain disciplined and part of our discipline is not getting ahead and making assumptions about what our regulatory processes will be.

然後就流程而言，您了解我們，然後回到克里斯的評論。我們將保持紀律，我們紀律的一部分是不超前並對我們的監管流程做出假設。

There's going to be lots of variables, not only the split of the capital versus this other piece, but just what else is being considered at the time. And I think the most important thing to look back on is the constructive approach that the commission has taken historically.

將會有很多變數，不僅是資本與其他部分的分配，還有當時正在考慮的其他內容。我認為回顧過去最重要的是委員會歷史上採取的建設性方法。

(Operator Instructions) Ross Fowler, Bank of America.

（操作員指令）Ross Fowler，美國銀行。

Maybe following on to Shar's question, he asked most of it. But Dan, maybe not commenting on whatever happens in the future. But in the past, sort of as you work through storm recovery processes in Georgia, this isn't first hurricane you've ever had.

也許是繼莎爾的問題之後，他問了大部分問題。但是丹，也許不會對未來發生的事情發表評論。但在過去，當您在喬治亞州進行風暴恢復過程時，這並不是您遇到的第一次颶風。

What is the typical sort of cash recovery lag? Can you remind us what that looks like? And then does that create an opportunity for securitization? Can that be done in the state? And then how do you sort of finance the gap between kind of the expenses that have gone out on the balance sheet versus the actual cash recovery this going forward?

典型的現金回收滯後類型是什麼？你能提醒我們那是什麼樣子嗎？那麼這是否為證券化創造了機會？在州內可以這樣做嗎？然後，您如何彌補資產負債表上支出的費用與未來實際現金回收之間的差距？

Yeah. Look, I think the PSC has in their hands every tool of disposal to overlay kind of a flexible approach to this. Without being too precise about history, I think it's fair to say, it has depended on the magnitude of the storm and the circumstances at the time, but the recovery periods have been from a couple of years to as many as six years, depending on how big the balance was and what else was kind of being factored into rates at the same time.

是的。聽著，我認為 PSC 手中擁有一切可用的工具來覆蓋某種靈活的方法。不用太精確地描述歷史，我認為可以公平地說，這取決於風暴的強度和當時的情況，但恢復期從幾年到長達六年，具體取決於風暴的強度和當時的情況。多大，同時考慮到利率的還有哪些因素。

Nick Campanella, Barclays.

尼克·坎帕內拉，巴克萊銀行。

Hope everyone is doing well. So I just wanted to kind of get your perspective, 36 gigawatts is a big number. You already have [eight] committed to your point. It just kind of seems like there's pressure higher on your load outlook every quarter here. And you have seen some peers in the space starting to kind of revise numbers, specifically kind of EPS outlooks on this.

希望每個人都做得很好。所以我只是想了解您的觀點，36 吉瓦是一個很大的數字。您已經有[八]個人同意您的觀點。似乎每季您的負載前景壓力都更大。你已經看到該領域的一些同業開始修改數字，特別是每股收益前景。

And I'm just kind of curious, is there a tipping point for you into where you would essentially need to kind of reevaluate the five to seven? Is there a point where the plant can sustain a rate base growth figure, even that kind of financing drag that would kind of put you above that five to seven range?

我只是有點好奇，是否有一個轉折點讓你基本上需要重新評估五到七？是否有一個點可以讓工廠維持利率基礎成長數字，即使是那種融資拖累會讓你高於五到七的範圍？

Sure. So I'll start, Nick, with what I've said historically on the growth rate. I would not expect anything to change in the near term, everything we're describing. So let's go back to the 36 gigawatts that we're referring to. That's by the mid-2030s.

當然。尼克，我將從歷史上關於成長率的說法開始。我預期短期內我們所描述的一切不會有任何變化。讓我們回到我們所指的 36 吉瓦。那是到 2030 年代中期。

That's not a 2024, 2025, 2026 kind of phenomenon. That's long term. There's certainly -- it certainly gets feathered in through the end of the decade and then well into the next decade. But every opportunity that exists here for acceleration of anything is long term in nature.

這不是 2024 年、2025 年、2026 年才會出現的現象。那是長期的。當然，它肯定會在本世紀末和下一個十年中體現。但這裡存在的每一個加速任何事情的機會本質上都是長期的。

And what I've said historically is -- to the extent this momentum continues, and the momentum is less about the pipeline as it is the commitments and the risk-adjusted outlook on sales and the capital that it takes to serve the load. If that continues, long term, in the latter half of our outlook, there may be an opportunity to reevaluate where the growth is starting from. As we sit here today, I don't think five to seven as a rate of growth changes.

我在歷史上說過的是──在這種勢頭持續下去的情況下，這種勢頭與管道無關，而是與承諾、經風險調整的銷售前景以及服務負載所需的資本有關。如果這種情況持續下去，從長遠來看，在我們展望的後半段，可能有機會重新評估成長的起點。當我們今天坐在這裡時，我認為五到七的成長率不會改變。

But again, we will evaluate it when we get there. You mentioned a lot of the moving parts here. We shared earlier this year that our long-term sales growth or at least the back half of the plan was close to 6%. With everything we're seeing, when we update our plan in February for you all, I won't be surprised if that's a higher number. When we get to February, we'll unveil our capital plan.

但同樣，當我們到達那裡時我們會對其進行評估。您在這裡提到了很多活動部件。我們今年稍早曾表示，我們的長期銷售成長（至少是計畫的後半部分）接近 6%。根據我們所看到的一切，當我們在二月為大家更新計劃時，如果這個數字更高，我不會感到驚訝。到了二月份，我們將公佈我們的資本計劃。

We've already talked along the way and disclosed in our Q several things that are incremental to our capital plan earlier this year, handful of Southern Power projects, little bit of refinement around the Georgia Power IRP process, that IRP update around storage and the cost of plant [Yates] and its certification. We've seen the details around the Southern Natural pipeline opportunity that we own 50% of.

我們已經一路討論並在我們的問題中披露了今年早些時候我們的資本計劃增量的幾件事，一些南方電力項目，圍繞佐治亞電力 IRP 流程的一些改進，圍繞存儲和 IRP 的更新工廠[Yates ]的成本及其認證。我們已經看到了有關我們擁有 50% 股份的 Southern Natural 管道機會的詳細資訊。

Those things on their own that are known are roughly $3 billion of incremental capital relative to our $48 billion plan. It won't surprise me, given what we're seeing, that there are several billion dollars on top of that reflected in our plan in February. So we're taking a long-term view here. There's lots of opportunity. We're being very disciplined about how we approach this.

相對於我們 480 億美元的計劃，這些已知的事情本身大約需要 30 億美元的增量資本。考慮到我們所看到的情況，除了我們 2 月的計劃中反映的資金之外，還有數十億美元，這並不令我感到驚訝。所以我們在這裡著眼長遠。有很多機會。我們對於如何處理這個問題非常嚴格。

That's great, Dan. I appreciate all that context. And I know the IRP filing is coming. You guys have been kind of leader in the nuclear space. Can you just kind of talk about how this fits into the company's wider generation outlook, even if it's not kind of the consolidated level?

太好了，丹。我很欣賞所有這些背景。我知道 IRP 申報即將到來。你們一直是核子領域的領導者。您能否談談這如何適應公司更廣泛的一代前景，即使它不是綜合水平？

Are there relicensing opportunities? Are there uprate opportunities to consider? And there was discussion about potential multistate framework? Is that something that you are part of? Maybe you could talk about this a little bit.

是否有重新授權的機會？是否有升級機會可以考慮？並討論了潛在的多國框架？你是其中的一部分嗎？也許你可以稍微談談這個問題。

Yeah. Look, there's obviously a lot in that question as well. Let's just put it in the context of the IRP, just not going to get ahead of any regulatory processes, but let's talk about what that process looks like, right?

是的。看，這個問題顯然也有很多內容。讓我們把它放在 IRP 的背景下，只是不會超越任何監管流程，但讓我們談談該流程是什麼樣的，對吧？

It's -- at the end of the day, it's reflecting and projecting out scenarios under various moving parts, environmental rules, the cost of natural gas over time, the cost of capital over time. And those scenarios are solving for the most economic, reliable way to serve customers in the long term.

歸根結底，它反映並預測了各種活動部件、環境規則、一段時間內的天然氣成本、一段時間內的資本成本下的情景。這些場景正在解決以最經濟、最可靠的方式長期服務客戶的問題。

Is it possible that one of those scenario model runs, spits out a nuclear upper rate or a new nuclear unit as the solution in the model? Sure, it might. Does that mean that's a recommendation? No. Does that mean that's a path we've embarked on?

這些場景模型之一是否有可能運行，吐出一個核上限或一個新的核單元作為模型中的解決方案？當然，可能會。這是否意味著這是一個推薦？不。這是否意味著我們已經走上了這條路？

No. Does that mean it's an option that is worth preserving and considering down the road? Of course, it is. But there's a lot that's going to take place before we get to that point. And that's, I think, what you hear a lot of us in the industry talking about.

不。這是否意味著這是一個值得保留和考慮的選擇？當然，是的。但在我們到達那一步之前，還有很多事情要發生。我想，這就是我們許多業內人士所談論的內容。

New nuclear is super important for them for this country, but in order to get to the right place, there's got to be better risk mitigation than exists today. That's got to come from changes with the federal government, that could come from some of these conversations with these large technology companies. We're talking to as many of these companies as anyone.

新核能對這個國家來說非常重要，但為了達到正確的目的，必須有比現在更好的風險緩解措施。這必須來自聯邦政府的改變，這可能來自與這些大型科技公司的一些對話。我們正在與盡可能多的這類公司進行洽談。

I'd argue we're having conversations with the majority of them, not just around nuclear, just around different ways to solve for this load equation. So it's a part of a broader conversation, but our discipline around this, and I'll tell you as my discipline as CFO, we're not going down that path until the risk is mitigated.

我認為我們正在與他們中的大多數人進行對話，不僅僅是圍繞核問題，而是圍繞解決這個負載方程式的不同方法。所以這是更廣泛對話的一部分，但我們對此的紀律，我會告訴你，作為我作為財務長的紀律，在風險得到緩解之前，我們不會走這條路。

But Chris, what would you add?

但是克里斯，你會補充什麼？

Yeah. No, Dan, I think you're exactly right. I mean there's a lot of work that needs to be done at the federal level if this country is to embrace more nuclear. I mean -- and Dan said it. I mean, Southern Company has engaged with, over majority, maybe all of the hyperscalers regarding nucleus solutions, but other solutions to respond to their data center needs, but there are just so many risks that have to be dealt with. I mean the risk is simply just too great.

是的。不，丹，我認為你是完全正確的。我的意思是，如果這個國家要擁抱更多的核武力量，聯邦層級需要做很多工作。我的意思是──丹說過。我的意思是，南方公司已經與絕大多數（也許是所有）超大規模企業就核心解決方案以及其他解決方案進行了合作，以滿足他們的資料中心需求，但需要處理的風險太多了。我的意思是風險太大了。

I mean I am hopeful and we are trying to -- encouraged to make sure that the government leans in, in a manner that helps mitigate the risk to shareholders and existing customers. But we're not going to move forward until we see a better line of sight in terms of those risks being mitigated.

我的意思是，我充滿希望，我們正在努力——鼓勵確保政府以有助於減輕股東和現有客戶風險的方式介入。但在我們看到更好的視野來緩解這些風險之前，我們不會繼續前進。

But between the federal government and some of the hyperscalers, and we hope we can see hope there's progress and advancement on responding to what needs to be done, but also helping mitigate some of this risk.

但在聯邦政府和一些超大規模企業之間，我們希望能夠看到在應對需要採取的行動方面取得進展和進步，同時也有助於減輕部分風險。

Jamieson Ward, Jefferies.

傑米森·沃德，傑弗里斯。

It's Julien here, actually. Maybe to follow up on Nick's last one here, if you can just elaborate a little bit further here on the nuclear side. I mean clearly, a lot of focus. You guys obviously led the Vanguard here at the outset of the last build-out cycle.

實際上是朱利安。也許是為了跟進尼克的最後一篇文章，如果你能在核方面進一步闡述的話。我的意思很明確，很多焦點。顯然，你們在上一個建設週期開始時就帶著領先鋒隊來到了這裡。

Can you speak a little bit more -- you talked about preserving the option over time. That doesn't sound like it's kind of a nearer-term development that you could press release in the next year with the hyperscaler per se. I just want to make sure I'm hearing this right. This is more preliminary than maybe what we've seen from some of your peers out there.

您能多說一點嗎？這聽起來不像是您可以在明年透過超大規模運算技術本身發布的近期開發成果。我只是想確保我沒聽錯。這可能比我們從一些同行那裡看到的更初步。

I don't want to put words in your mouth. I'm just sort of curious to tease out of you how far down that rabbit hole you are, considering the expertise that you guys bring to the table on the subject, whether an SMR or (inaudible)?

我不想把話塞到你嘴裡。我只是有點好奇想問你們，考慮到你們在這個問題上所帶來的專業知識，無論是 SMR 還是（聽不清楚）？

No. I think you said it upfront. I mean we've had with Vanguard, we've had this experience, and we recognize and fully understand the risk that are there. And so as we spoke earlier, we think before we can move down this path, we've got to find solutions to mitigate the risk to our shareholders but also to our customers with nuclear.

不。我想你早就說過了。我的意思是，我們與先鋒集團有過合作，我們有過這樣的經歷，我們認識到並完全理解其中存在的風險。因此，正如我們之前所說，我們認為，在沿著這條道路前進之前，我們必須找到解決方案來減輕我們股東以及核客戶的風險。

And so that's kind of where we are. I mean, we'll go through the RFP processes that -- and as we go through those models and all the different scenarios in terms of what may come for it. But from a nuclear perspective, the risk issues are just so real, and we know what they are, that we've got to find some way to mitigate those issues before we see the opportunity. We see the reality of moving forward.

這就是我們現在的處境。我的意思是，我們將經歷 RFP 流程——當我們經歷這些模型和所有不同場景時可能會發生什麼。但從核子的角度來看，風險問題是如此真實，我們知道它們是什麼，我們必須找到某種方法來緩解這些問題，然後才能看到機會。我們看到了前進的現實。

Jeremy Tonet, JPMorgan.

傑里米·託內特，摩根大通。

If I could just continue on the nuclear side a bit here. And I know you touched on up rates there a bit. But just wanted to see at a high level, if you could share any thoughts at all as far as what the opportunity set, the range of, I guess, upgrade potential there. And I know that there's a lot of variables in play, economics and all the other factors that you've listed. Just wondering directionally, if you could give us any thoughts there?

如果我能在這裡繼續討論核方面就好了。我知道你提到了提高利率的問題。但只是想從高層次上看看，您是否可以分享任何關於機會設置的想法，我想，那裡的升級潛力範圍。我知道，其中存在著許多變數、經濟因素以及你列出的所有其他因素。只是想知道您是否可以給我們一些想法？

Yeah. Look, again, Jeremy, I hate to keep -- we're not going to get ahead of any regulatory processes. I'll give you just a little color there.

是的。再說一遍，傑里米，我討厭繼續說下去——我們不會領先任何監管程序。我會給你一點顏色。

So broadly across the enterprise. So this is not Georgia-specific, but Georgia Power and Alabama Power and remember, we have co-owners on these things. We do have six legacy units that there are opportunities for up rates. Historically, many of those uprates have not been economic.

整個企業範圍如此廣泛。所以這不是喬治亞州特有的，而是喬治亞電力公司和阿拉巴馬電力公司，請記住，我們在這些事情上有共同所有者。我們確實有六個舊單位，有機會加價。從歷史上看，許多漲價都不是經濟性的。

The benefits that are inherent in the IRA and some of the other legislation help with that, and are pushing them to a point where they are potentially more viable, not that they don't require a signee amount of capital, not that they don't require a significant amount of time, but certainly don't bring with them to kind of risk of a new nuclear project.

IRA 和其他一些立法所固有的好處對此有所幫助，並將它們推向潛在更可行的地步，並不是說它們不需要簽字人的資本金額，也不是說它們不需要。但肯定不會帶來新核子專案的風險。

So it is certainly something on the table that we are evaluating. And at the right time, we'll put that forward as an option, if appropriate.

所以這肯定是我們正在評估的事情。在適當的時候，如果適當的話，我們會將其作為選項提出。

Great. And then I just want to kind of shift gears, given the big call on generation, as you've outlined there. Just wondering any thoughts you could share with, I guess, coal retirement time lines? What impacted there? And then even as it relates to carbon capture, is that something that you see as plausible for coal or gas? Or just any thoughts as it relates to Southern?

偉大的。然後，正如您所概述的那樣，考慮到對一代人的重大呼籲，我只是想改變方向。只是想知道您有什麼想法可以分享，我猜，關於煤炭退役時間表？那裡受到了什麼影響？即使它與碳捕獲有關，您認為這對煤炭或天然氣來說是合理的嗎？或只是與南方有關的任何想法？

A couple of things. On coal retirements, clearly, we're watching and paying attention to the EPA rules, and we'll -- that will clearly instruct and inform us as we go through planning processes in terms of what those -- what the life of those projects will look like. So that's a couple of things that will, of course, continue to pay attention to.

有幾件事。顯然，在煤炭退役方面，我們正在關注並關注美國環保署的規則，當我們進行規劃過程時，​​這些規則將清楚地指導和告知我們這些項目的壽命會看起來像。當然，有幾件事將繼續受到關注。

And what was the second part of your question?

你問題的第二部分是什麼？

As it relates to carbon capture potential for both the coal and gas.

因為它與煤炭和天然氣的碳捕獲潛力有關。

So as you know, we've been operating the national carbon capture centered now for some 50 years. And so we initially were doing a lot of carbon capture research around coal. We have shifted that research now to gas. And we have a number of partners from the utility industry, but also partners from the oil and gas industry because we all recognize the vital role that natural gas will play in this economy and supporting electricity generation, and knowing how important it will be to bring forth technology for carbon capture as well as sequestration.

如您所知，我們以國家碳捕獲為中心的運作已經有大約 50 年了。因此，我們最初圍繞煤炭進行了大量碳捕獲研究。我們現在已將該研究轉向天然氣。我們有許多來自公用事業行業的合作夥伴，也有來自石油和天然氣行業的合作夥伴，因為我們都認識到天然氣將在這個經濟中發揮重要作用並支持發電，並且知道它將帶來多麼重要的影響。第四種碳捕獲和封存技術。

We continue to pursue this work. We know there's more research to be done to get this at a point where it's scalable, but we're going to continue to make this investment because we think gas will be essential for this country going forward. And we'll continue to invest in international carbon capture center, but also find other research opportunities to invest in carbon capture and research carbon capture.

我們將繼續進行這項工作。我們知道還需要進行更多研究才能使其達到可擴展的程度，但我們將繼續進行這項投資，因為我們認為天然氣對這個國家的未來至關重要。我們將繼續投資國際碳捕獲中心，同時也尋找其他研究機會來投資碳捕獲和研究碳捕獲。

That's very helpful. And one last quick one, if I could sneak it in. Just as it relates to the pipe opportunity as you laid it out there, I think it was part of the $3 billion there. But just was wondering, I guess, if you could provide a little bit more color on what that could look like, just size of gas you'd like to get into your service territory? And what type of time frame do you see this ultimately unfolding over?

這非常有幫助。最後快一點，如果我能偷偷溜進去的話。正如您所提出的，它與管道機會相關，我認為它是 30 億美元的一部分。但我想知道，您是否可以提供更多關於它的外觀的顏色，只是您希望進入服務區域的天然氣大小？您認為這最終會在什麼時間範圍內展開？

Yes. So there's a lot of details there on the gas procurement side, Jeremy, that we can't share. I mean that's proprietary information that's part of the project. There are contractual provisions between Southern Natural and all the off-takers.

是的。傑里米，天然氣採購方面有很多細節我們無法分享。我的意思是這是專案一部分的專有資訊。Southern Natural 與所有承購商之間都有合約條款。

Suffice it to say the existing Southern Natural pipe, our entities between our electric generation fleet and Atlanta Gas Light and the marketers in Georgia represent 50% of the offtake of the existing pipe. And so I don't think it's unreasonable that with an expansion project, that we have the opportunity to be a pretty large participant as well.

可以說，現有的 Southern Natural 管道、我們的發電車隊和亞特蘭大煤氣燈公司之間的實體以及喬治亞州的營銷商佔了現有管道的 50% 的銷售量。因此，我認為透過擴建項目，我們也有機會成為相當大的參與者，這並不是不合理的。

As far as the timing of the project, again, I think all these details are probably out there in Kinder Morgan's materials. But just think about it essentially as a project that culminates sometime at the very back end of our forecast or late this decade.

至於該項目的時間安排，我再次認為所有這些細節可能都在金德摩根的材料中。但只要將其本質上視為一個項目，該項目將在我們預測的最後階段或本世紀末的某個時候達到頂峰。

Paul Fremont, Ladenburg Thalmann.

保羅‧弗里蒙特，拉登堡‧塔爾曼。

Would you consider at this point adding fall generation at Southern Power, given sort of the significant demand that you're seeing for customers to add capacity?

考慮到客戶對增加容量的巨大需求，您是否會考慮在南方電力公司增加秋季發電？

Yeah. I mean -- and Paul, Dan has referred back to our model as we think about Southern Power. And so that will guide a lot of work that we do in consideration of that we have. I mean -- and so as we look at projects, we look at creditworthy counterparties, not taking fuel risk, but using that kind of discipline to guide what happens at Southern Power going forward, I think will instruct us in terms of what opportunities that may be available and what things we'll pursue.

是的。我的意思是──保羅、丹在我們思考南方電力時提到了我們的模型。因此，考慮到我們現有的情況，這將指導我們所做的許多工作。我的意思是，因此，當我們考慮專案時，我們會考慮信譽良好的交易對手，不承擔燃料風險，而是利用這種紀律來指導南方電力公司未來的發展，我認為這將指導我們哪些機會可能可用以及我們將追求什麼。

But I think it will be premature to make any kind of commitment or any kind of guidance in terms of what may happen there.

但我認為就那裡可能發生的事情做出任何承諾或任何指導都為時過早。

Yeah. If you think about the conversation we've already had along the way here, environmental rules, things like [111D] and what happens there, pipeline infrastructure and its availability to do projects like that. If we can mitigate those risks or the contract is designed in such a way that more than pays for those risks, then that's something we'll continue to keep on the table. So it's never know. It's just a function of being consistent with our business model.

是的。如果你想想我們一路上已經進行的對話、環境規則、[111D]之類的事情以及那裡發生的事情、管道基礎設施及其進行此類項目的可用性。如果我們能夠減輕這些風險，或者合約的設計方式足以支付這些風險，那麼我們將繼續保留這一點。所以永遠不知道。這只是與我們的商業模式一致的功能。

And I do think it's also being an -- remaining disciplined. I mean, there's a lot of enthusiasm in the marketplace today. But we've got -- as you'll hear me say a lot, we've got to remain disciplined. We've got to be true to kind of who we are and kind of our philosophy and values that we have in place and let that guide us as we move through kind of this incredible growth opportunities that we see here in this industry. We've got to remain disciplined.

我確實認為這也是一種——保持紀律。我的意思是，今天的市場充滿熱情。但我們必須——正如你會聽到我經常說的那樣，我們必須保持紀律。我們必須忠於自己，我們的哲學和價值觀，並讓這些指導我們度過我們在這個行業中看到的令人難以置信的成長機會。我們必須保持紀律。

And I guess you've identified sort of 8 gigawatts of committed load, including 3.6 gigawatts that were included in the last IRP. So how much of the 4.4 remaining should we assume is paid for by an individual customer versus being socialized over your entire retail load?

我猜您已經確定了大約 8 吉瓦的承諾負載，其中包括上一個 IRP 中包含的 3.6 吉瓦。那麼，我們應該假設剩下的 4.4 有多少是由個人客戶支付的，而不是在整個零售負載中進行社交化的？

Substantially all of it by specific customers.

基本上所有這些都是由特定客戶提供的。

Okay. So it wouldn't -- most of it would actually have a positive impact then on customer bills?

好的。那麼它不會——其中大部分實際上會對客戶帳單產生積極影響嗎？

Yeah. That is the objective as we overlay this disciplined and orderly process, that there are mutual benefits of serving this load to the existing customer base.

是的。這就是我們涵蓋這個紀律有序的流程的目標，即向現有客戶群提供此負載服務是互惠互利的。

And then last question for me. We've seen sort of endless legal challenges to new pipelines, would an expansion of [SONAT] be subject to legal challenges? Or how should we think about that?

然後是我的最後一個問題。我們已經看到了對新管道無休止的法律挑戰，[SONAT] 的擴張是否會受到法律挑戰？或者說我們該如何思考這個問題？

I think you have to believe it certainly has its susceptibilities as well. And I think that's, again, factored in the way Kinder-Morgan is thinking about the time line.

我認為你必須相信它當然也有其敏感性。我認為這也是金德摩根考慮時間表的方式的一個因素。

But you would need additional permitting and all the things that would sort of potentially lead to a legal fight?

但是您需要額外的許可以及所有可能導致法律糾紛的事情嗎？

Yeah. There's -- about 90% of this particular project is brownfield, largely compression and looping. And so that greatly derisks the opportunity, doesn't mean there's not still requirements, but you're not creating a brand-new right of way for hundreds of miles and building new pipe.

是的。這個特定項目大約 90% 是棕地，主要是壓縮和循環。因此，這極大地降低了機會的風險，並不意味著仍然沒有要求，但您並沒有創建數百英里的全新通行權並建造新的管道。

Durgesh Chopra, Evercore ISI.

杜爾格甚喬普拉 (Durgesh Chopra)，Evercore ISI。

Just a blue sky question. Just what you guys think of the SMR technology? Obviously, you've seen several announcements that your peers have made, which are dated at the end of the decade. But what do you -- what is your experience with the technology? Have you had any discussions? Do you think it's scalable? Just kind of your position as a nuclear power operator, I'd just be curious on what do you think of the technology itself?

只是一個藍天問題。你們對SMR技術有何看法？顯然，您已經看到了同行發布的幾項公告，這些公告的日期是本世紀末。但你對這項技術有什麼經驗？你們有過任何討論嗎？您認為它具有可擴展性嗎？作為核電運營商，我只是想知道您對這項技術本身有何看法？

Yeah, Durgesh, this is Chris. And you've heard us talk before about our research and development organizations and the proprietary research that we do. And we have partnered with a number of organizations for years, investing in SMR technology, researching SMR technology and advanced nuclear. And we follow it. We work very closely with a lot of partners.

是的，德吉什，這是克里斯。您之前已經聽過我們談論我們的研發組織以及我們所做的專有研究。我們與許多組織合作多年，投資SMR技術、研究SMR技術和先進核能。我們遵循它。我們與許多合作夥伴密切合作。

I mean there's a lot of work being done, but there's very few projects that are moving forward. There's a lot of discussion about them, but I think there's just a lot more work to be done to finalize the designs and finalize the engineering. And we're following it and evolve very closely.

我的意思是，有很多工作正在完成，但正在推進的專案卻很少。關於它們有很多討論，但我認為要完成設計和完成工程還有很多工作要做。我們正在緊隨其後並不斷發展。

We think it's very beneficial for us to follow, but also to be engaged on multiple fronts, even as we were building Vogtle Unit 3 and 4. We continue to involve ourselves with Gen 4 and additional advanced nuclear technology. I mean that's kind of who we are and what we do as a company, and we're going to continue to do that.

我們認為，即使我們正在建造 Vogtle 3 號和 4 號設備，這對我們來說非常有益，並且能夠參與多個方面的工作。我們繼續參與第四代和其他先進核子技術。我的意思是，這就是我們是誰以及我們作為一家公司所做的事情，我們將繼續這樣做。

But from my perspective, there's still more work to be done before we get close to anything commercial. I mean, but there's a lot of talk out there, but I think there's more work and more design work and more engineering work to be done.

但從我的角度來看，在我們接近商業化之前，還有更多的工作要做。我的意思是，雖然有很多討論，但我認為還有更多的工作、更多的設計工作和更多的工程工作要做。

Given that approach, I think what would be fair to say is that we view it as too early to put all of our eggs in one nuclear technology basket.

鑑於這種方法，我認為公平地說，我們認為將所有雞蛋放在一個核子技術籃子裡還為時過早。

Travis Miller, Morningstar Inc.

崔維斯米勒，晨星公司

A quick follow-up on the storm costs. Did you have any storm cost reserves? Or how much did you use of those that was available?

對風暴成本的快速跟進。您有風暴費用儲備嗎？或是您使用了多少可用的資源？

There was not a reserve going into the storm. We actually had a very small balance to be recovered. So this was additive to that. If you actually look at the balance, the balance is closer to $1.2 billion, whereas this particular reserve was $1.1 billion.

沒有預備隊進入風暴。實際上我們有非常小的餘額需要收回。所以這是附加的。如果您實際查看餘額，您會發現餘額接近 12 億美元，而該特定準備金為 11 億美元。

Okay. And then higher level, to serve that demand that you're talking about, especially that 8 gigawatts, if you were to decide to build, say, a gas unit or whatever today, in terms of supply chain, how long would it actually take you to get from concept today to flowing electrons to a new customer?

好的。然後更高層次，為了滿足您所談論的需求，尤其是 8 吉瓦，如果您今天決定建造一個天然氣裝置或其他任何東西，就供應鏈而言，實際上需要多長時間您今天要從概念到將電子流向新客戶嗎？

Well, I'm going to start and Chris, jump in here. But I think in answering the question, I don't want to answer the question as though we haven't already done things to get ahead of that. So you -- we've taken the opportunity to get in the queue for long lead time equipment.

好吧，我要開始了，克里斯，請跳到這裡。但我認為在回答這個問題時，我不想回答這個問題，就好像我們還沒有採取行動來提前解決這個問題一樣。所以您——我們已經趁機排隊購買長交貨期設備。

We have partners from an EPC perspective that we've worked closely with very recently and very successfully. And so we're -- I would say, several steps ahead on that. But then you have to step back and say what technology. So is it a combustion turbine, is it a combined cycle? Those are different time lines.

我們擁有從 EPC 角度來看的合作夥伴，我們最近與他們密切合作且非常成功。所以我想說，我們在這方面領先了幾步。但接下來你必須退後一步，說說是什麼技術。那麼它是燃氣渦輪機還是聯合循環？這些是不同的時間軸。

All that to say, Travis, I think we're in good shape. It's, in general, a three to five-year time frame to kind of get gas generation from the beginning to the end. And given the long lead time nature of this load, we're pretty well positioned.

綜上所述，特拉維斯，我認為我們狀態良好。一般來說，從開始到結束需要三到五年的時間才能產生天然氣。考慮到該負載的交貨時間較長，我們處於有利位置。

Yeah. And I think if you look back at our [Barry] project at Alabama, that was a little bit over three years, I think, in the construction of that unit, so 800 megawatts combined cycle unit. So we've had some good experiences of late reconstruction of those units.

是的。我想，如果你回顧我們在阿拉巴馬州的[巴里]項目，我想，在該機組的建設過程中，800兆瓦的聯合循環機組花了三年多一點的時間。因此，我們在這些單位的後期重建方面取得了一些良好的經驗。

Okay. That's great. And then what about T&D, is there any difference in terms of supply chain or timing of supply, T&D versus generation?

好的。那太棒了。那麼輸電與輸電呢？

No. I think it all overlays pretty nicely. Our lead times on large transformers and other major equipment longer than they used to be, yes. But we have visibility into that and are planning accordingly.

不。我認為這一切都疊加得很好。是的，我們大型變壓器和其他主要設備的交貨時間比以前更長。但我們對此有清醒的認識，並正在製定相應的計劃。

Paul Patterson, Glenrock Associates.

保羅·帕特森，Glenrock Associates。

So it sounds like you guys are -- things are falling into place and everything -- and it sounds like you guys are -- I mean, I -- just to make sure that I'm understanding it correctly, that you guys see upside to the sales growth expectations that you previously had and obviously, CapEx associated with that, correct?

所以聽起來你們——事情正在就位，一切——聽起來你們——我的意思是，我——只是為了確保我理解正確，你們看到了積極的一面符合你們之前的銷售成長預期，顯然，資本支出與之相關，對嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. And that would -- in terms of in the past, when you guys talked about this earnings increase -- this sales growth increase, et cetera, there wasn't necessarily a direct impact on earnings that you had seen. Should we think that perhaps, with this more robust outlook, that might be coming out that -- how should we think about that in terms of earnings, I guess?

好的。就過去而言，當你們談論收入成長時，銷售成長等，不一定會對你們所看到的收入產生直接影響。我們是否應該認為，也許，隨著這種更強勁的前景，可能會出現——我想我們應該如何從收益角度考慮這一點？

Yeah, Paul, I'll go back to what I said earlier. To the extent we do indeed see this momentum is continuing, and we do maintain our discipline about not getting too far ahead or ahead at all of any of the regulatory processes and the line of sight on this stuff. The opportunity to reflect and provide a different outlook will not occur until the latter half of our plan.

是的，保羅，我要回到我之前所說的。在某種程度上，我們確實看到這種勢頭正在持續，並且我們確實保持了我們的紀律，即在所有監管流程和對這些問題的視線上都不會走得太遠或超前。直到我們計劃的後半部分，才會有機會反思並提供不同的觀點。

All of this is long term in nature. There's -- as exciting as this is and as much work is happening around all this for us and the entire industry, this load is on the back end of the forecast. It's not this year. It's not next year. It's '28, '29, '30 and beyond.

所有這一切本質上都是長期的。儘管這令人興奮，而且我們和整個行業正在圍繞這一切開展大量工作，但這一負載仍處於預測的後端。這不是今年。這不是明年。現在是 28 年、29 年、30 年及以後。

Okay. I just wanted to make sure that -- I don't know. I thought maybe I just want to make sure if there was anything else I should be looking at. Okay, that's awesome.

好的。我只是想確定一下——我不知道。我想也許我只是想確定是否還有其他我應該看的東西。好吧，太棒了。

And then just finally on the deferral -- on the storm costs. When you're deferring the cost, is it at a cost of -- I mean, I assume you're getting some sort of return. Is that return to debt return? Or is it -- how should we think about the return that's associated with the deferral?

最後是關於延期——關於風暴成本。當你推遲成本時，是否會付出某種成本——我的意思是，我假設你會得到某種回報。這就是債務回報嗎？或者是－我們該如何考慮與延期相關的回報？

Yeah. It's typically been our cost of capital. But again, with the magnitude of it and with the nature of it, the commission has flexibility to adjust that, just like they have done historically with us, for other things with large underrecovered fuel balances have a different financing costs associated with it.

是的。這通常是我們的資本成本。但同樣，鑑於其規模和性質，委員會可以靈活地進行調整，就像他們歷史上對我們所做的那樣，因為其他具有大量未回收燃料餘額的項目具有不同的相關融資成本。

That will conclude today's Q&A session. I would now like to turn the call back to Chris Womack for closing comments.

今天的問答環節到此結束。我現在想將電話轉回克里斯沃馬克以徵求結束意見。

Again, let me thank each one of you for joining us today. We are, as we said, we're excited about where we are in the company, and we're pleased with the performance we've had through the first three quarters of this year. And so once again, we thank you for taking time to be with us, and we wish all of you a happy Halloween. Thank you very much.

讓我再次感謝你們今天加入我們。正如我們所說，我們對公司所處的位置感到興奮，並且對今年前三個季度的業績感到滿意。因此，我們再次感謝您抽出時間與我們在一起，並祝大家萬聖節快樂。非常感謝。

Thank you. That will conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。