美國南方電力 (SO) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is Malika, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to The Southern Company Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, February 15, 2024.

午安.我叫 Malika，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。現在，我歡迎大家參加南方公司 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）謹此提醒，本次會議的錄音時間為 2024 年 2 月 15 日。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Scott Gammill, Vice President, Investor Relations and Treasurer. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁兼財務主管 Scott Gammill 先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Malika. Good afternoon, and welcome to Southern Company's Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. Joining me today are Chris Womack, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Southern Company; and Dan Tucker, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，瑪莉卡。下午好，歡迎參加南方公司 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。今天與我一起出席的還有南方公司董事長、總裁兼執行長 Chris Womack；和財務長丹·塔克。

Let me remind you, we'll be making forward-looking statements today in addition to providing historical information. Various important factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements, including those discussed in our Form 10-K and subsequent securities filings.

讓我提醒您，除了提供歷史資訊外，我們今天還將做出前瞻性聲明。各種重要因素可能導致實際結果與前瞻性聲明中所示的結果有重大差異，包括我們的 10-K 表格和後續證券文件中討論的結果。

In addition, we'll present non-GAAP financial information on this call. Reconciliations to the applicable GAAP measure are included in the financial information we released this morning as well as the slides for this conference call, which are both available on our Investor Relations website at investor.southerncompany.com.

此外，我們將在本次電話會議上提供非公認會計準則財務資訊。我們今天早上發布的財務資訊以及本次電話會議的幻燈片中包含了對適用的 GAAP 衡量標準的調節，這些資訊均可在我們的投資者關係網站 Investor.southerncompany.com 上取得。

At this time, I'll turn it over to Chris.

這個時候，我會把它交給克里斯。

Thank you, Scott. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us today. 2023 was an exceptional year for Southern Company, a year in which we proved once again that we can do extraordinary things, including delivering strong financial results in the face of unprecedented headwinds and the successful completion of Plant Vogtle Unit 3, the first newly constructed nuclear unit in the United States in over 3 decades.

謝謝你，斯科特。下午好，感謝您今天加入我們。 2023 年對南方公司來說是不平凡的一年，這一年我們再次證明我們可以做非凡的事情，包括在面臨前所未有的逆風的情況下實現強勁的財務業績以及成功竣工沃格特爾工廠3號機組（第一座新建核電）三十多年來一直在美國工作。

Since its July 30th in-service date, Unit 3's performance has exceeded our expectations, delivering over 5 million megawatt hours of safe, reliable, carbon-free energy across Georgia.

自 7 月 30 日投入使用以來，3 號機組的性能超出了我們的預期，為喬治亞州提供了超過 500 萬兆瓦時的安全、可靠、無碳能源。

Other noteworthy items for 2023 included constructive resolution of the Vogtle 3 and 4 prudence process, resolving all issues of reasonableness, prudence and cost recovery; successfully completed construction and commissioning for a brand-new 720-megawatt combined cycle plant on schedule and on time at Alabama Power's Plant Barry; acquired 2 new solar projects at Southern Power, which once construction is complete, will add an additional 350 megawatts of carbon-free generation to its portfolio of fully contracted renewable generation; continued progress toward our greenhouse gas emission reduction goals, including our interim goal of a 50% reduction versus 2007 levels by 2030; achieving a 49% reduction in 2023; earned a National Accounts Award for Outstanding Customer Engagement by the Edison Electric Institute and top honors from J.D. Power for residential and business customer satisfaction. And just last week, Southern Company was ranked as the #1 most admired electric and gas utility in Fortune Magazine's World's Most Admired Companies list for 2024.

2023 年其他值得注意的事項包括 Vogtle 3 和 4 審慎流程的建設性解決方案，解決了所有合理性、審慎性和成本回收問題；阿拉巴馬電力公司巴里工廠按計劃按時成功完成了全新 720 兆瓦聯合循環發電廠的建設和調試；收購了 Southern Power 的 2 個新太陽能項目，一旦建設完成，將為其完全承包的可再生能源發電組合增加 350 兆瓦的無碳發電；在實現我們的溫室氣體減排目標方面繼續取得進展，包括到 2030 年比 2007 年水準減少 50% 的中期目標；到2023年實現減少49%；榮獲愛迪生電氣研究所頒發的國民帳戶傑出客戶參與獎，以及 J.D. Power 頒發的住宅和商業客戶滿意度最高榮譽。就在上週，南方公司在《財星》雜誌 2024 年全球最受尊敬的公司排行榜中被評為最受尊敬的電力和天然氣公用事業公司第一名。

These achievements reflect our team's steadfast commitment to keep the customers and the communities we are privileged to serve at the center of everything we do. Throughout 2023, our electric and gas franchises continue to excel at the fundamentals and started this year strong as evidenced through our preparations and execution during January's Winter Storm Heather, when electricity demands reached all-time winter peaks and Southern Company Gas' system continued reliably serving customers throughout severe weather conditions across its 4-state territory.

這些成就反映了我們團隊的堅定承諾，讓我們有幸服務的客戶和社區成為我們所做一切的中心。整個2023 年，我們的電力和天然氣特許經營業務繼續在基本面方面表現出色，並在今年開局強勁，這一點透過我們在1 月份冬季風暴希瑟期間的準備和執行就得到了證明，當時電力需求達到了冬季歷史最高峰值，而南方公司天然氣系統繼續可靠地提供服務其 4 個州境內的惡劣天氣條件下的客戶。

Our ability to navigate through such severe weather events further demonstrates how our customers benefit from the combination of outstanding operational performance by each of our utilities and the value of our vertically integrated state-regulated business model. Our state's long-term integrated planning processes, which include adoption of important planning assumptions like a 26% winter reserve margin for our electric utilities, benefit our customers by providing a reliable and resilient mix of energy resources.

我們應對此類惡劣天氣事件的能力進一步證明了我們的客戶如何從我們每個公用事業公司的出色營運績效和我們垂直整合的國家監管業務模式的價值中受益。我們州的長期綜合規劃流程，包括採用重要的規劃假設，例如電力公司的冬季儲備裕度為 26%，透過提供可靠且有彈性的能源組合，使我們的客戶受益。

Before turning the call over to Dan for a financial update, I'd like to provide an update on Vogtle Unit 4. We continue to make meaningful progress toward the completion of Unit 4 with initial criticality achieved yesterday. Initial criticality represents a key step during start-up, whereby operators for the first time safely begin the self-sustaining nuclear reaction to create heat for steam production.

在將電話轉給 Dan 詢問最新財務資訊之前，我想提供有關 Vogtle 第 4 單元的最新情況。我們繼續在完成第 4 單元方面取得有意義的進展，昨天已達到初步關鍵性。初始臨界度代表啟動過程中的關鍵步驟，操作員首次安全地開始自持核反應，為蒸汽生產產生熱量。

As we approach the initial sync with the grid, Unit 4 continues with the remaining start-up and preoperational testing activities that precede the declaration of in-service, which is projected in the second quarter of 2024.

當我們接近與電網的初始同步時，第 4 單元將繼續進行剩餘的啟動和預運行測試活動，這些活動預計在 2024 年第二季度投入使用。

Our 2024 adjusted earnings per share guidance range, which Dan will get you all shortly assumes Unit 4 achieves commercial operation in April. Dan, I'll now turn the call over to you.

我們的 2024 年調整後每股盈餘指引範圍（丹很快就會為大家提供）假設 4 號機組於 4 月實現商業營運。丹，我現在把電話轉給你。

Thanks, Chris, and good afternoon, everyone. As you can see from the materials we released this morning, we reported strong adjusted earnings per share of $3.65 for 2023, which was the very top of our 2023 guidance range. The primary drivers of our performance compared to 2022 are higher utility revenues and lower nonfuel O&M expenses and income taxes, somewhat offset by higher depreciation and interest expenses.

謝謝克里斯，大家下午好。正如您從我們今天早上發布的資料中看到的，我們公佈的 2023 年調整後每股收益強勁，為 3.65 美元，這是我們 2023 年指導範圍的最高值。與 2022 年相比，我們業績的主要驅動因素是公用事業收入增加、非燃料營運維護費用和所得稅減少，但折舊和利息費用增加在一定程度上抵消了這一影響。

Mild weather was also a significant headwind with 2023 marking the mildest year in our history for our electric service territories. Our ability to deliver 2023 adjusted results at the very top of guidance is a great testament to our team and to the resilience and strength of our portfolio of companies. A detailed reconciliation of our reported and adjusted results compared back to 2022 is included in today's release and earnings package.

溫和的天氣也是一個重大阻力，2023 年將是我們電力服務領域史上最溫和的一年。我們有能力在指導的最高水準上交付 2023 年調整後的業績，這充分證明了我們的團隊以及我們公司投資組合的彈性和實力。今天的發布和收益報告中包含了我們報告和調整後的表現與 2022 年相比的詳細調節結果。

Turning now to electricity sales in the economy. Weather-adjusted retail electric sales were down 0.4% for 2023 compared to 2022. Strong usage drove commercial sales growth of 1.3% for the year, which was partially offset by lower residential usage with both commercial and residential sales impacted by the return to the office dynamic.

現在轉向經濟中的電力銷售。與2022 年相比，2023 年經天氣調整後的零售電力銷售量下降0.4%。強勁的使用量推動全年商業銷售增長1.3%，但部分增長被住宅使用量下降所抵消，商業和住宅銷售均受到辦公室回歸的影響動態的。

We continue to see robust residential customer growth with the addition of over 46,000 residential electric customers and nearly 27,000 residential gas customers. Since 2020, we've added over 200,000 residential electric customers, which represents the highest 4-year total in decades.

我們繼續看到住宅客戶強勁成長，新增了 46,000 多個住宅電力客戶和近 27,000 個住宅瓦斯客戶。自 2020 年以來，我們增加了超過 20 萬個住宅電力客戶，這是數十年來最高的 4 年總數。

Industrial sales finished down for the year nearly 2%, largely due to continued slowing in housing and construction-related sectors as well as lower sales to chemical companies due to outages and long-planned plant closures.

今年工業銷售下降近 2%，主要是由於住房和建築相關行業持續放緩，以及由於停電和長期計劃的工廠關閉而導致化學公司的銷售下降。

Consistent with the drivers detailed in Georgia Power's recently filed 2023 Integrated Resource Plan update, economic development in our Southeast service territory remains incredibly strong. Several years of extraordinary success in attracting new and expanding businesses to our states underpins our long-term electricity sales forecast. While electricity sales growth is projected to remain around 1% to 2% for 2024 and 2025, growth from 2025 to 2028 is projected to accelerate to an average of approximately 6% annually, with Georgia Power's total retail electric sales growth projected to be approximately 9% annually over this same period. The magnitude and velocity of this growth are significant drivers for the increased capital investments reflected in our current outlook. This projected growth also represents a tremendous opportunity to de-risk our outlook and benefit customers as the substantial projected growth in kilowatt hour sales from new manufacturing facilities and data centers has the potential to put downward pressure on existing customers' rates.

與喬治亞電力公司最近提交的 2023 年綜合資源計畫更新中詳細介紹的驅動因素一致，我們東南部服務區域的經濟發展仍然非常強勁。多年來在吸引新的和不斷擴大的企業到我們各州方面取得的非凡成功支撐了我們的長期電力銷售預測。雖然2024 年和2025 年售電量成長預計將維持在1% 至2% 左右，但2025 年至2028 年的成長預計將加速至平均每年6%​​ 左右，喬治亞電力公司的總零售售電量成長預計約為9%同期每年%。這種成長的規模和速度是我們當前展望中反映的資本投資增加的重要驅動力。這項預期的成長也代表了一個巨大的機會，可以降低我們的前景風險並讓客戶受益，因為新製造設施和資料中心的千瓦時銷售預計將大幅成長，有可能對現有客戶的費率施加下行壓力。

Turning now to our earnings projections for 2024 and beyond. Our adjusted earnings per share guidance range for 2024 is $3.95 to $4.05, and our projected long-term adjusted EPS growth rate is 5% to 7% from that range. In early 2021, we provided the investment community with a stable post-Vogtle 3 and 4 construction and EPS projection with an initial and reasonably wide 2024 guidance range. It is perhaps the greatest of understatements to say that the world has changed a lot since early 2021.

現在轉向我們對 2024 年及以後的獲利預測。我們對 2024 年調整後每股收益的指導範圍為 3.95 美元至 4.05 美元，我們預計長期調整後每股收益增長率為該範圍的 5% 至 7%。 2021 年初，我們為投資界提供了穩定的 Vogtle 3 和 4 後建設和 EPS 預測，以及初步且相當廣泛的 2024 年指引範圍。自 2021 年初以來，世界已經發生了巨大變化，這也許是最輕描淡寫的說法。

On a macro basis, we've seen significant inflation and higher and then higher-for-longer interest rates, which alone has translated to interest expense for 2024 hundreds of millions of dollars higher than any of us assumed 3 years ago.

從宏觀角度來看，我們看到了嚴重的通貨膨脹和更高的利率，而且利率持續升高，僅此一項就轉化為2024 年的利息支出，比我們3 年前的假設高出數億美元。

Additionally, relative to our projection in early 2021, the projected in-service date for Vogtle 4 moved into 2024 from 2023. In the face of these challenges, we've continued to work extremely hard to grow our business and to create value for investors. Compared to our projections in early 2021, our state-regulated utility rate base for 2024 is projected to be approximately $6 billion higher, while lower O&M expenses and higher sales are projected to contribute hundreds of millions of dollars more than previously projected to help maintain affordability and help pay for those investments.

此外，相對於我們在 2021 年初的預測，Vogtle 4 的預計投入使用日期從 2023 年推遲到 2024 年。面對這些挑戰，我們繼續極其努力地發展我們的業務並為投資者創造價值。與我們2021 年初的預測相比，我們2024 年國家監管的公用事業費率基數預計將高出約60 億美元，而運維費用的降低和銷售額的增加預計將比之前的預測多貢獻數億美元，以幫助維持可負擔性並幫助支付這些投資。

We estimated adjusted earnings of $0.90 per share for the first quarter of 2024. Our capital investment plan continues to be well over 95% attributable to our state-regulated utility businesses. The current 5-year capital investment forecast, totaling $48 billion, reflects a $5 billion increase in state-regulated utility investments relative to our forecast a year ago. This 12% increase in capital spending reflects our ongoing efforts to further increase the resiliency of our electric and gas networks and our technology infrastructure. It also partially reflects new resources proposed in Georgia Power's 2023 IRP update, about 60% of the brick-and-mortar megawatts proposed.

我們預計 2024 年第一季調整後每股收益為 0.90 美元。我們的資本投資計畫中 95% 以上仍來自於我們受國家監管的公用事業業務。目前的 5 年資本投資預測總額為 480 億美元，反映出國家監管的公用事業投資相對於我們一年前的預測增加了 50 億美元。資本支出增加 12% 反映了我們為進一步提高電力和天然氣網路以及技術基礎設施的彈性所做的持續努力。它也部分反映了喬治亞電力公司 2023 年 IRP 更新中提議的新資源，約佔提議的實體兆瓦數的 60%。

We have maintained our disciplined measured approach to capital forecasting for our state-regulated utility businesses. Given the magnitude of change in our projected sales growth and the timeframe in which new resources are needed to serve higher peak demands, we felt it was appropriate to go ahead and reflect certain new resources in our capital plan.

我們對國家監管的公用事業業務保持嚴格的資本預測方法。考慮到我們預期銷售成長的變化幅度以及需要新資源來滿足更高尖峰需求的時間範圍，我們認為繼續在我們的資本計畫中反映某些新資源是適當的。

Additionally, our capital investment forecast tend to grow, especially in the later years as the visibility into customer additions improves, regulatory processes unfold, compliance obligations evolve, and our long-term integrated system planning is refined. While the increases in this year's 5-year forecast represent an outsized upward adjustment due to the scale and velocity of the projected growth in the near term, we do believe it's reasonable to expect a historical trend of capital increases to continue going forward.

此外，我們的資本投資預測往往會成長，特別是在接下來的幾年中，隨著客戶增加的可見性提高、監管流程的展開、合規義務的發展以及我們的長期整合系統規劃的完善。儘管由於近期預期成長的規模和速度，今年五年預測的上調代表了大幅上調，但我們確實認為，資本成長的歷史趨勢預計將繼續向前發展是合理的。

On its own, our capital investment forecast of $48 billion supports annualized state-regulated rate base growth of approximately 6%, providing a solid foundation for our long-term outlook. Any upside to the capital forecast will simply serve to add durability to an already strong outlook.

就其本身而言，我們 480 億美元的資本投資預測支持約 6% 的年化國家監管利率基數成長，為我們的長期前景奠定了堅實的基礎。資本預測的任何上行都只會增強本已強勁的前景的持久性。

Strong investment-grade credit ratings remain a priority. We continue to believe that in order to be a high-quality equity investment, a company must also have high-quality credit. As we near completion of Vogtle Unit 4, the reduction in major project construction risk and the improvement in our FFO should strengthen and meaningfully improve our credit profile to help ensure we preserve what we believe will be a positively differentiated profile.

強勁的投資等級信用評級仍然是首要任務。我們仍然認為，要成為優質的股權投資，企業也必須擁有優質的信用。隨著 Vogtle 4 號機組即將竣工，重大專案建設風險的降低和 FFO 的改善應該會加強並有意義地改善我們的信用狀況，以幫助確保我們保持我們認為將具有積極差異化的狀況。

We are also turning on our internal equity plans to fund the incremental capital investment at our subsidiaries that I highlighted earlier. These plans typically provide approximately $350 million of new equity annually.

我們也啟動內部股權計劃，為我先前強調的子公司的增量資本投資提供資金。這些計劃通常每年提供約 3.5 億美元的新股本。

Additionally, we'll preserve our financing flexibility and optionality with a continuous focus on preserving and improving shareholder value. For example, we will continue to maintain an at-the-market or ATM plan to partially finance potential additional increases in capital spending in our subsidiaries or potentially, to partially refinance callable hybrid securities if we determine doing so preserves or improves our credit and long-term EPS objectives.

此外，我們將維持融資靈活性和選擇性，持續專注於維護和提高股東價值。例如，我們將繼續維持市場或ATM 計劃，為我們子公司資本支出的潛在額外增長提供部分融資，或為可贖回混合證券進行部分再融資（如果我們確定這樣做可以保留或改善我們的信用和長期利益）。長期每股收益目標。

Southern Company strives to deliver a superior risk-adjusted total shareholder return, and we believe the plan that we've laid out supports that objective. Our customer and community-focused business model, the growing investments in our premier state-regulated utility franchises, and the priority that we place on strong credit quality and our remarkable dividend history all contributes toward making Southern Company a premier investment.

南方公司致力於提供卓越的風險調整後股東總回報，我們相信我們制定的計劃支持這一目標。我們以客戶和社區為中心的商業模式、對我們一流的國家監管公用事業特許經營權的不斷增長的投資、我們對良好信用品質和卓越股息歷史的優先考慮，都有助於使南方公司成為一流的投資。

Chris, I'll now turn the call back over to you.

克里斯，我現在將把電話轉回給你。

Thank you, Dan. Again, let me say, Southern Company had an exceptional year in 2023. We didn't just meet challenges head on, we rose above them while remaining committed to keeping customers and communities in the center of everything that we do.

謝謝你，丹。我再說一遍，南方公司在 2023 年度過了不平凡的一年。我們不僅直面挑戰，而且克服了挑戰，同時仍然致力於將客戶和社區置於我們所做的一切的中心。

I am extraordinarily proud of the hard work, the collaboration, the perseverance and the leadership that our teams show throughout the year to enable us to achieve these outstanding results. Having a team prepared to rise to such new heights doesn't just happen. For decades, Southern Company has prioritized investing in our people, with a focus on positioning our leaders and their teams to provide the exceptional service customers expect, to deliver the innovative solutions needed in an evolving energy landscape and to support growing the communities we are privileged to serve.

我對我們的團隊在這一年中所表現出的辛勤工作、協作、毅力和領導力感到非常自豪，使我們能夠取得這些出色的成果。擁有一支準備好達到新高度的團隊並不是偶然發生的。幾十年來，南方公司一直優先投資於我們的員工，重點是讓我們的領導者及其團隊能夠提供客戶期望的卓越服務，提供不斷變化的能源格局所需的創新解決方案，並支持我們享有特權的社區的發展服務。

As you all know, our company implemented a leadership transition in early 2023. Rather than simply fill a handful of vacant seats, we embraced it as a grand opportunity. During 2023, we facilitated 75 officer-level changes throughout the company. The changes brought renewed energy and excitement, and more importantly and intentionally, the move has served to further strengthen what we believe to be the deepest and best bench in the industry.

眾所周知，我們公司在 2023 年初實施了領導層換屆。我們不是簡單地填補少數空缺席位，而是將其視為一個千載難逢的機會。 2023 年期間，我們在整個公司促成了 75 次高階主管的變動。這些變化帶來了新的活力和興奮，更重要的是，此舉有意進一步加強了我們認為是該行業中最深入和最好的長凳。

I am excited about the future of this company, and I'm excited about our team and its ability to deliver the results all our stakeholders, customers and investors alike expect from Southern Company.

我對這家公司的未來感到興奮，對我們的團隊及其交付所有利益相關者、客戶和投資者對南方公司期望的結果的能力感到興奮。

Thank you again for joining us this afternoon and for your continued interest in Southern Company. Operator, we are now ready to take questions.

再次感謝您今天下午加入我們並感謝您對南方公司的持續關注。接線員，我們現在準備好回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first phone question is from the line of Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題是來自古根漢合夥人公司 Shar Pourreza 的電話問題。

Just quickly on the new guidance that you rolled forward. Does the new '24 estimate range still include a Vogtle charge? So should we be adding back $0.05 or so to grow off the 5% to 7% like you've talked about in the past? And sort of that new 6% rate base growth estimate now comes with equity. I guess, what's the comfort level of hitting the midpoint of that EPS growth range, which you just reiterated?

快速了解您推出的新指南。新的 '24 估算範圍是否仍包含 Vogtle 費用？那麼，我們是否應該像您過去談到的那樣，增加 0.05 美元左右，以實現 5% 至 7% 的成長？現在，新的 6% 的利率基礎成長預期也伴隨著股本。我想，達到您剛才重申的每股盈餘成長範圍的中點的舒適度是多少？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Shar. And I know there's a lot of focus on this. I think we're always fascinated with the precision with which everyone wants to inhale all this down.

是的。謝謝你的提問，莎爾。我知道大家都非常關注這一點。我認為我們總是著迷於每個人都想將這一切吸入下來的精確度。

The -- so let's start with the guidance range. Yes, it absolutely includes impacts from Vogtle 4, not only being in '24 at all, but certainly going into, as we've assumed in the guidance range, April. I mean, if you add all that up, that's $0.08 of incremental impact on 2024 relative to what it would have been if the project was in line in 2023.

那麼讓我們先從指導範圍開始。是的，它絕對包括 Vogtle 4 的影響，不僅是在 24 年，而且肯定會進入，正如我們在指導範圍中假設的那樣，四月。我的意思是，如果將所有這些加起來，相對於該專案在 2023 年上線的話，到 2024 年的增量影響將增加 0.08 美元。

And -- but we haven't adjusted our range by that full amount, by any means. And what we're doing is using the flexibility, not unlike what we did in 2023 with the mildest year ever to kind of mitigate that. Those are the kind of mitigations and flexibility items that aren't necessarily available every year. You have to maintain the system. You've got to make sure you're prioritizing service to customers. And so that flexibility is limited. We're using it this year, and that will diminish what we have the opportunity to do going forward.

而且——但無論如何，我們還沒有將我們的範圍調整那麼多。我們正在做的就是利用靈活性，就像我們在 2023 年所做的那樣，在有史以來最溫和的一年中，以某種方式緩解這種情況。這些緩解措施和靈活性項目不一定每年都能提供。你必須維護系統。您必須確保優先考慮為客戶提供服務。因此靈活性是有限的。我們今年正在使用它，這將減少我們未來所做的事情。

But also, I think what's not factored in is a couple of other important nuances. We thought 40 slides was enough, but maybe we needed one more slide to kind of draw how we always think about our guidance range and our growth range. We don't think about the 5% to 7% being off of the midpoint. We've always kind of drawn those trajectories off the top of it and off the bottom of it. So 7% off the top, 5% off the bottom. I think if you do that from this current range, it captures every reasonable estimate that's out there for 2025 and 2026.

而且，我認為沒有考慮到其他一些重要的細微差別。我們認為 40 張投影片就足夠了，但也許我們還需要一張投影片來描繪我們如何看待我們的指導範圍和成長範圍。我們認為 5% 到 7% 不會偏離中點。我們總是從它的頂部和底部繪製這些軌跡。所以頂部折扣 7%，底部折扣 5%。我認為，如果您從當前範圍內進行計算，它將涵蓋 2025 年和 2026 年的所有合理估計。

When it comes to the rate base growth, look, we were at 6% last year. We just added $5 billion of capital to the plan. We didn't add all the capital that we see as possible. That kind of incremental capital additions opportunity still exists. So yes, our ability to grow rate base, and yes, it's mitigated ever so slightly by a fraction of a percent of increased shares over time. Our ability to hit our numbers is as solid as it's ever been.

說到利率基數成長率，去年我們的成長率為 6%。我們剛剛為該計劃增加了 50 億美元的資本。我們沒有添加我們認為可能的所有資本。這種增量資本增加的機會仍然存在。所以，是的，我們增加利率基礎的能力，是的，隨著時間的推移，它會因股票增加的一小部分而略有減弱。我們實現目標的能力一如既往地強勁。

Got it. Okay. That's helpful, Dan. And then just lastly, I know one of your peers has spoken pretty extensively on sort of nuclear PTCs and obviously expects to receive hundreds of millions of dollars a year to fund sort of that capital plan. I guess, does the plan today -- do you expect to receive anything material on the nuclear PTC fund? Is it part of any of your credit metrics or funding plans?

知道了。好的。這很有幫助，丹。最後，我知道您的一位同行已經就核 PTC 進行了相當廣泛的發言，並且顯然希望每年獲得數億美元來為該資本計劃提供資金。我想，今天的計劃——您希望收到有關核 PTC 基金的任何材料嗎？它是您的信用指標或融資計劃的一部分嗎？

Yes. We -- yes, thanks, Shar. We have not factored any cash flow from nuclear PTCs into our outlook. We've got a terrific plan with an improving FFO-to-debt metric that's several hundred basis points above any of our threshold over time and frankly improves every year in the forecast that I look at without those nuclear PTCs.

是的。我們──是的，謝謝，莎爾。我們沒有將來自核 PTC 的任何現金流納入我們的展望。我們有一個很棒的計劃，其中的FFO 與債務指標不斷改進，隨著時間的推移，該指標比我們的任何閾值高出數百個基點，並且坦率地說，在我所看到的沒有這些核PTC 的預測中，每年都會有所改善。

Is there the opportunity for us to capture some of those PTCs? We think there very well could be. We're not counting on it. And to the extent we do, we'll flow those to customers in the most practical amount of time possible. And so we're -- it's not going to be a factor in kind of how our metrics or earnings look.

我們是否有機會捕獲其中一些 PTC？我們認為很有可能。我們不指望它。在我們這樣做的範圍內，我們將在最實際的時間內將這些流向客戶。因此，這不會成為影響我們指標或利益的因素。

Our next question is from the line of Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Steve Fleishman。

So just -- I think you've talked about targeting a 17% FFO to debt, which is differentiated. When do you expect you'll be there, let's say, in 2025, when you have first full year of Vogtle, both units running? When do you expect to be there?

所以，我認為您已經談到了將 17% 的 FFO 定為債務目標，這是有區別的。您預計什麼時候能到達那裡，比方說，2025 年，屆時您將迎來 Vogtle 的第一個全年，兩個設備都在運行？您預計什麼時候到那裡？

Yes. So I've always kind of said, we see a forecast that gets us to 17-ish as the way I've characterized it in the past. So let me tell you where we are, Steve, here today, and I think it's still differentiated and a terrific story. And we're doing everything we can to make sure we're being conservative in the way we think about this.

是的。所以我總是說，正如我過去所描述的那樣，我們看到了一個將達到 17 歲左右的預測。所以讓我告訴你我們今天在這裡的情況，史蒂夫，我認為這仍然是一個與眾不同的故事，也是一個了不起的故事。我們正在盡一切努力確保我們在思考這個問題時保持保守。

So if we just think about Moody's metrics, our actual result for 2023 was 14%. Keep in mind, that's before Vogtle 4 is in service. 2024, with Vogtle in service on the timeline, we believe those metrics will improve by more than 100 basis points in 2024. The weight of the incremental capital that we're deploying and the fact that some of this is kind of long-life construction, you think about building new gas plants at Georgia or other things, there's a bit of regulatory lag that weighs a little bit on credit metrics. And as that resolves itself, cash flow improves.

因此，如果我們只考慮穆迪的指標，我們 2023 年的實際結果是 14%。請記住，那是在 Vogtle 4 投入使用之前。到 2024 年，隨著 Vogtle 按時投入使用，我們相信這些指標將在 2024 年提高 100 個基點以上。我們正在部署的增量資本的重量以及其中一些是長壽命建設的事實，你考慮在佐治亞州建造新的天然氣工廠或其他地方，存在一些監管滯後，這對信用指標產生了一些影響。當這個問題自行解決時，現金流就會改善。

So with the forecast that I see go from 14% to over 15% in '24 and about a 50 to 60 basis point improvement every year after that over time, and that's a function of that capital, it's -- we're issuing the equity to kind of continue the improvement. And then there's a little bit of impact in the short term for under-recovered fuel that as that gets collected and the debt goes away, that also kind of adds to that upward trajectory.

因此，根據我的預測，我預計 24 年將從 14% 升至 15% 以上，之後每年都會有約 50 至 60 個基點的改善，這是資本的函數，我們正在發行股本以繼續改善。然後，短期內對回收不足的燃料會產生一些影響，隨著這些燃料的收集和債務​​的消失，這也增加了上升的軌跡。

So in my 5-year forecast, we get kind of in that mid-16% towards 17% range. But again, every year in the 5 years is an improving story. And still, hundreds of basis points above our thresholds.

因此，在我的 5 年預測中，我們的成長率在 16% 到 17% 之間。但同樣，這 5 年裡的每一年都是一個進步的故事。儘管如此，仍比我們的閾值高出數百個基點。

Great. And my other question, just the -- I mean the -- can you just talk to this growth, particularly, I guess, in Georgia, the 9% a year sales growth, which is -- at least, seems kind of unprecedented, at least for my lifetime in this. Well, I just -- I guess, just how are you differentiating kind of proposed growth projects between ones that are in your plan or ones that you're kind of holding back from because you're not sure they're going to happen? And just -- is this a conservative risk-adjusted number? Or how should I think about that? How are you doing it with those peers because it's so huge?

偉大的。我的另一個問題，就是——我的意思是——你能談談這種增長嗎？特別是，我猜，在喬治亞州，每年 9% 的銷售成長——至少，似乎是前所未有的，至少在我的一生中是這樣。好吧，我只是 - 我想，你如何區分計劃中的成長項目和因不確定它們是否會發生而猶豫的項目？只是——這是一個保守的風險調整數字嗎？或者說我該如何思考這個問題？因為它是如此巨大，你如何與那些同行一起做這件事？

Yes, it is an unprecedented growth that we continue to witness from economic development activities. And so yes, this is a very conservative look. I mean we look for -- we factor in build permits, building permits in terms of actual announcements of ground has been broken. I mean, so we look at not just companies that are forward looking and making site visits, but there's been some demonstrated commitment that they will, in fact, be building a project in the state.

是的，我們從經濟發展活動中不斷看到這是前所未有的成長。是的，這是一種非常保守的外觀。我的意思是，我們尋找——我們將建築許可考慮在內，建築許可是根據實際宣布的破土動工來計算的。我的意思是，我們不僅關注那些具有前瞻性和進行實地考察的公司，而且還做出了一些明確的承諾，表明他們實際上將在該州建立一個項目。

So we go through those thresholds before we make those filings in terms of being -- having some certainty that these projects are, in fact, real. We've just seen unprecedented economic development activity, say, for the past 3 years. And we continue to have an aggressive pipeline. But as we go to the commission for this updated IRP, we just factored in those companies, those businesses that have clearly demonstrated and taken actions that we think of -- that shows some firmness in their participation in their operating businesses in the state.

因此，在提交這些文件之前，我們會先通過這些門檻，以確保這些項目實際上是真實的。我們剛剛看到了過去三年前所未有的經濟發展活動。我們繼續擁有正面的管道。但當我們向委員會提交更新的IRP 時，我們只是考慮了那些公司，那些已經明確展示並採取了我們認為的行動的企業，這表明他們在參與該州的經營業務方面表現出了一定的堅定性。

Yes. And I'll just add to that, that the momentum in the economic development activity has continued even since filing that 2023 IRP update. And so thank goodness, we've got a filing in 2025, and we do this periodically. It's going to continue to evolve. There's a lot still lingering out there that, in our conservative nature, we're not counting on yet, but it's not unlikely.

是的。我想補充一點，即使自提交 2023 年 IRP 更新以來，經濟發展活動的勢頭仍在持續。謝天謝地，我們已在 2025 年提交了一份文件，並且我們會定期進行此操作。它將繼續發展。仍有許多問題揮之不去，出於我們保守的本性，我們還沒有指望這些問題，但這並非不可能。

Yes. But Steve, this is a very conservative look as we make these decisions.

是的。但是史蒂夫，當我們做出這些決定時，這是一種非常保守的態度。

And then just one last thing on this. The 9%, since everybody is very focused on data center growth, like how much of it is data centers relative to manufacturing or other growth?

最後一件事。 9%，因為每個人都非常關注資料中心的成長，例如資料中心相對於製造業或其他成長的比例有多少？

Data centers represent right now, we think, somewhere around 80% of that emerging load.

我們認為，目前資料中心約佔新興負載的 80%。

Our next question is from the line of Carly Davenport with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的卡莉·達文波特。

Maybe just to start on the new 5-year plan, could you just talk a little bit about what drove the assumptions you made around including some of that spend on the incremental resource needs in the Georgia IRP?

也許只是為了開始新的五年計劃，您能否簡單談談是什麼推動了您所做的假設，包括佐治亞州 IRP 中增量資源需求的一些支出？

And then with the commission order sort of expected there in April, how would you think about updating the capital plan if it's necessary after that decision?

然後，預計 4 月會有佣金訂單，如果在做出決定後有必要的話，您會如何考慮更新資本計劃？

Yes, Carly, it's a great question. So -- and I think I alluded to this a few minutes ago, it really is about the velocity and magnitude of this growth that we just kind of characterized for Steve. It's right in front of us. These resources are needed sooner than later. And so we think there's -- it was reasonable to kind of break trend for us a little bit and get slightly ahead of regulatory outcome to reflect directionally what's happening. And so just to kind of peel the curtain back a little bit, we were very specific in what we included. If you go back and look at the proposal that Georgia Power put in front of the commission back in the fall, it included a lot of various owned resources. And what we've included in the capital plan is essentially the new combustion turbines, there's 3 of those, and then 2 specific storage projects that are kind of located near military bases and [moving us off Air Force space]. That leaves hundreds, I think, over 800 megawatts of storage projects and a small storage of solar kind of not included in there. We will get a decision in April.

是的，卡莉，這是一個很好的問題。所以——我想我幾分鐘前就提到過這一點，這確實是關於我們剛剛為史蒂夫描述的這種增長的速度和幅度。它就在我們面前。遲早需要這些資源。因此，我們認為，對我們來說，稍微打破趨勢並稍微領先於監管結果以定向反映正在發生的情況是合理的。因此，為了稍微揭開帷幕，我們對所包含的內容非常具體。如果你回頭看看喬治亞電力公司在秋季向委員會提出的提案，它包括許多各種自有資源。我們在資本計劃中包含的內容本質上是新的燃氣渦輪機，其中有 3 個，然後是 2 個特定的存儲項目，這些項目位於軍事基地附近並[使我們遠離空軍空間]。我認為，這還剩下數百個超過 800 兆瓦的儲存項目和小型太陽能儲存項目不包括在內。我們將在四月做出決定。

But again, as a reminder, there's a whole another process coming in 2025. So there may be a degree of clarity in April. There may be further clarity coming out of the '25 process. And as those play out, we'll continue to obviously keep the investment community apprised and update our projections accordingly.

但再次提醒一下，2025 年將會有一個完全不同的過程。所以 4 月可能會出現一定程度的清晰。 '25 流程可能會進一步明確。隨著這些的展開，我們將繼續向投資界通報情況，並相應地更新我們的預測。

Great. That's super helpful. And then maybe just as we think about executing on Vogtle Unit 4. Just any insights on kind of the near-term milestones that we might get updates on that we can gauge project progress there? And then to the extent that the timeline does slip beyond kind of the April that's embedded into current guidance, can you talk a little bit about some of the levers that you might have to pull there to sort of offset those impacts?

偉大的。這非常有幫助。然後也許就像我們考慮在 Vogtle Unit 4 上執行一樣。我們可能會獲得有關近期里程碑的任何見解，以便我們可以衡量那裡的專案進度嗎？然後，如果時間表確實超出了當前指導中的四月時間，您能否談談您可能需要採取哪些措施來抵消這些影響？

Yes. Carly, let me start by saying with initial criticality achieved yesterday, we continue to progress through testing and start-up. The next major milestone is sync-ing to the grid, and that could occur later this month. We expect Unit 4 completion during the second quarter. And as we take into account the experiences we got from last year with our Unit 3, as we look at moving through Unit 4, and we could have worked through these units -- how we work through these issues that could arise.

是的。卡莉，首先我要說的是，隨著昨天達到的初步關鍵性，我們將繼續透過測試和啟動取得進展。下一個重要里程碑是同步到電網，這可能會在本月稍後發生。我們預計 4 號機組將於第二季完工。當我們考慮到去年在第 3 單元中獲得的經驗時，當我們考慮到第 4 單元的進展時，我們本可以透過這些單元來解決問題——我們如何解決可能出現的這些問題。

But we view this as a long-term investment and we'll make sure we're taking time to get it right. But right now, as we look at where we are, we are planning on the unit being online in April, and we think we have a number of weeks of margin to accomplish that objective.

但我們認為這是一項長期投資，我們將確保花時間把它做好。但現在，當我們看看我們所處的位置時，我們計劃在四月將該裝置上線，我們認為我們有幾週的時間來實現這一目標。

Yes. And Carly, I'll speak to the flexibility. I mean, obviously, I mentioned earlier, we're kind of already deploying some of that flexibility to address what we expect to be [us here] today in April in service because beyond that, we've laid out -- it's roughly $0.03 for every month. But that's partially why we have a range, right? I mean it's a $0.10 range out there. So it could be a function of moving us within the range for the year or depending on the circumstances as the year plays out, whether it's weather or something else, we might have some greater degree of flexibility. It's just too early in the year to really be that detailed about exactly how that might play out.

是的。卡莉，我要談談靈活性。我的意思是，很明顯，我之前提到過，我們已經部署了一些靈活性來解決我們期望在 4 月今天[我們這裡]使用的問題，因為除此之外，我們已經安排了大約 0.03 美元每個月。但這就是我們有一個範圍的部分原因，對吧？我的意思是，價格範圍為 0.10 美元。因此，這可能是讓我們在今年的範圍內移動的函數，或者根據今年的情況，無論是天氣還是其他因素，我們可能會有更大程度的靈活性。現在要真正詳細地討論具體的結果還為時過早。

Our next question is from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Julien Dumoulin-Smith。

A couple of quick questions, following up on what you guys have said of late. Just on this big number on sales growth. Just to clarify, I mean, in your forecast, I know you've got this pending IRP that technically lines up against that sales. Are you seeing an improving ROE in the outlook? Or is this really underpinned at this point by just the IRP? And to the extent at which the IRP doesn't fully reflect that sales outlook, is there something more to go as you work through the process? Question one, if you will.

幾個簡短的問題，跟進你們最近所說的內容。就在這個龐大的銷售成長數字上。只是為了澄清，我的意思是，在您的預測中，我知道您已經獲得了這個待處理的 IRP，從技術上講，該 IRP 與該銷售額相符。您認為 ROE 前景會改善嗎？或者說目前這真的只是由 IRP 支撐的嗎？如果 IRP 沒有完全反映銷售前景，那麼在您完成整個流程時是否還需要做更多的事情？問題一，如果你願意的話。

So I'm not sure where you're headed with improved ROE. Maybe clarify that.

所以我不確定 ROE 的改善將走向何方。也許澄清一下。

Just from improving returns from the additional sales, if you will.

如果你願意的話，只是為了提高額外銷售的回報。

Certainly, not improving returns from an overall, say, regulated utility perspective. From a -- we really view that as the opportunity to kind of put downward pressure on existing customers' rates. I mean, our objective from an ROE perspective is regular, predictable, sustainable. I think you'll continue to see it play out that way.

當然，從整體來看，例如受監管的公用事業角度來看，並沒有提高回報。從一個角度來看，我們確實認為這是對現有客戶的費率施加下行壓力的機會。我的意思是，從 ROE 的角度來看，我們的目標是定期的、可預測的、可持續的。我想你會繼續看到這樣的情況發生。

Just to be clear, Julien, on the sales growth that we've laid out here, so this is roughly 6% in the long term for Southern, that 9% number for Georgia Power, this is actually based on a more conservative view than what's in the IRP update because the IRP update had to put some degree of expectation for additional success from an economic development perspective so that we do stay ahead of this from a resource perspective. It's not a huge differential, but what it also kind of reinforces is as this continues to play out, those numbers have the potential to continue to go up.

Julien，需要明確的是，我們在這裡列出的銷售成長情況，從長遠來看，南方電力大約為 6%，喬治亞電力為 9%，這實際上是基於比IRP 更新中包含哪些內容，因為IRP更新必須從經濟發展的角度對額外成功提出一定程度的期望，以便我們從資源的角度保持領先。這並不是一個巨大的差異，但它也強化了隨著這種情況的繼續發展，這些數字有可能繼續上升。

Yes. Excellent. And then just pivoting back to the FFO to debt quickly. I mean, the 17% that you guys were talking about once, I mean, what is -- has that changed at all? Just in terms of how you're thinking about pro forma for V4 -- Vogtle 4 coming on?

是的。出色的。然後迅速轉向 FFO 償還債務。我的意思是，你們曾經談論過的 17%，我的意思是，這到底是什麼——有改變嗎？就你如何看待 V4 的準備考試——Vogtle 4 即將推出？

No, nothing's changed in terms of what I believe the financial profile supports which, again, my objectives, I've said this before, I think the -- our parent company being at BBB+, kind of the A category for all the utilities, I think the profile we see ahead of us fully supports that.

不，就我所相信的財務狀況支持的方面而言，沒有任何改變，我的目標，我之前已經說過，我認為 - 我們的母公司處於 BBB+，所有公用事業的 A 類，我認為我們前面看到的概況完全支持這一點。

The only thing that's changed is a slightly slower ramp-up in those metrics because of the incremental capital that we're deploying. But in terms of where we stand relative to any of our thresholds, it's several hundred basis points above any of those in every year, and every year improves.

唯一改變的是，由於我們正在部署增量資本，這些指標的成長速度稍慢。但就我們相對於任何閾值的立場而言，每年都比任何閾值高出數百個基點，並且每年都在進步。

Wonderful. And then just quickly on the reactor cooler pumps, I know there was a little bit of talk in the K here. What's sort of the status on V4? And then just to the extent to which that there is some root cause impact on some of the other -- there's a need to evaluate the adjacent reactor cooler pumps, if you will. I know there's some language in the K on it.

精彩的。然後很快就反應爐冷卻泵，我知道這裡有一些討論。 V4 的狀態如何？然後，就某些根本原因對其他一些影響的程度而言，如果願意的話，有必要評估相鄰的反應器冷卻器幫浦。我知道上面的 K 裡有某種語言。

Yes. And so yes, we've done all the analysis. We sent the pump back to the manufacturer. And we think we identified the cause of the issue, but a root cause analysis has not been performed yet. But we have tested all the other pumps. And with the new pump, we made sure there were not any similar issues, but we think we're in pretty good shape with the pumps as we go forward.

是的。是的，我們已經完成了所有分析。我們將泵送回製造商。我們認為我們已經確定了問題的原因，但尚未進行根本原因分析。但我們已經測試了所有其他泵浦。對於新泵，我們確保沒有任何類似的問題，但我們認為在我們前進的過程中，泵的狀態非常好。

Our next question is from the line of Nick Campanella with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的尼克·坎帕內拉。

I guess, just a follow up on the question that Julien had on the root cause. I think you just mentioned the possibility of having to go look back at Unit 3 pumps in the K. And just what's the actual risk [affecting] the line? And when is that no longer going to be an issue?

我想，這只是朱利安關於根本原因的問題的後續。我想您剛剛提到了必須回顧 K 中 3 號機組泵浦的可能性。[影響]該線路的實際風險是什麼？什麼時候這不再是個問題？

I guess, as we have looked at the pump that we sent to the manufacturer, as we identified what we thought the issue was, we think it's not an issue with the other pumps. I mean, we test the other pumps. We assessed the pump, the new pump that we installed. And we think we just have a good handle. And on these pumps, I think you consider the run time. I think that provides good color to kind of, I guess, the confidence we have in the pump and what we've identified as the issues and things we have to do to make sure we don't have similar issues as we go forward.

我想，當我們檢查了發送給製造商的泵浦時，當我們確定了我們認為的問題所在時，我們認為這不是其他泵浦的問題。我的意思是，我們測試其他泵。我們評估了泵，我們安裝的新泵。我們認為我們掌握得很好。對於這些泵，我認為您會考慮運行時間。我認為這為我們對泵的信心以及我們所確定的問題和我們必須做的事情提供了良好的色彩，以確保我們在前進時不會遇到類似的問題。

Yes. I think globally, there's 24 of these things running like a champ right now.

是的。我認為在全球範圍內，目前有 24 款此類產品運作得非常出色。

Absolutely. Yes, that's helpful. And then just on the capital plan and reflecting roughly 60% of the IRP, I know that you kind of get a decision in the first half of this year. So just how do we kind of think about tweaks to the financing plan? Is it just going to be another fourth quarter update this time next year? Or is there a mid-period opportunity in the cards?

絕對地。是的，這很有幫助。然後就資本計畫而言，它反映了 IRP 的大約 60%，我知道你會在今年上半年做出決定。那我們要如何考慮調整融資計畫呢？明年這個時候是否會再進行第四季更新？或是中期有機會嗎？

Look, none of these regulatory outcomes will be -- they'll all be in the light of day. I think it will be clear what's approved and what's yet to be approved. I kind of laid out what we've included already, which is those combustion turbines and 2 very specific storage projects. And so I think we'll be able to provide color along the way. We'll certainly do more formal updates every year as we normally do, but I think there'll be interim opportunities.

瞧，這些監管結果都不會——它們都會暴露在光天化日之下。我認為什麼已經批准，什麼尚未批准將會很清楚。我列出了我們已經包含的內容，即燃氣渦輪機和 2 個非常具體的儲存項目。所以我認為我們將能夠一路提供色彩。我們肯定會像往常一樣每年進行更正式的更新，但我認為會有臨時機會。

And the other interim opportunity that will continue to exist is we've remained extremely conservative when it comes to owning in renewables in any of our electric service territories. We also are very optimistic that, that will happen. And as that gets clarity, we'll make sure that, that's known as well.

另一個將繼續存在的臨時機會是，在我們的任何電力服務領域擁有再生能源時，我們仍然極為保守。我們也非常樂觀地認為這將會發生。隨著這一點變得清晰，我們將確保這一點也眾所周知。

But you'll also see great transparency through this process, man, as the commission in Georgia works through the process. I mean the staff is filing testimony today, and they may have a different perspective. But you'll see that process play out, and that lead us to the decision in April by the commission. But you've seen these IRP processes before. So those processes will continue as we go forward, and you'll see real time kind of how it unfolds.

但是，隨著喬治亞州委員會在整個過程中的工作，您也會看到整個過程的極大透明度。我的意思是，工作人員今天正在提交證詞，他們可能有不同的觀點。但你會看到這個過程的展開，這導致我們委員會在四月做出決定。但您以前已經看過這些 IRP 進程。因此，隨著我們的前進，這些過程將繼續下去，您將實時看到它是如何展開的。

Our next question is from the line of David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的大衛·阿卡羅。

Let's see. Thinking about that load growth trajectory, is 6% rate base growth still the right kind of parameter to think about longer term? 6% load growth, 6% rate base growth, is that enough to kind of handle the system strain, the generation need, this strain on the T&D system over time? Or is there potential upward growth rate pressure on that rate base growth number as you get into later years of this decade?

讓我們來看看。考慮到負載成長軌跡，6% 的利率基數成長仍然是考慮長期的正確參數嗎？ 6% 的負載成長、6% 的速率基礎成長，是否足以應對系統壓力、發電需求以及輸配電系統隨著時間的推移而產生的壓力？或者，當進入本十年的最後幾年時，該成長率基礎成長率是否存在潛在的上行壓力？

Yes. Look, I think, Dave, what we've tried to imply is there certainly is upward potential here. We've remained incredibly conservative and measured in how we forecasted. We're not trying to get too far ahead of any regulatory processes. We'll get these decisions in April. We'll have a 2025 process. We believe there's more economic development activity that is likely to come to fruition.

是的。聽著，我想，戴夫，我們試圖暗示的是這裡肯定有上升的潛力。我們在預測方面仍然非常保守和謹慎。我們不想在任何監管流程上走得太遠。我們將在四月做出這些決定。我們將有一個 2025 年的流程。我們相信更多的經濟發展活動可能會有所成果。

And so given all of that, it is certainly not unreasonable that our capital budget will continue to rise to serve that incremental load. And so there certainly could be upward, using your words, pressure on that rate base.

因此，考慮到所有這些，我們的資本預算將繼續增加以滿足增量負載，這當然不是不合理的。因此，用你的話來說，利率基礎肯定會面臨向上的壓力。

Got it. That makes sense. And I was wondering if you could elaborate a little bit on how you're thinking about the rate impacts coming from that load growth. Are these low-priced new commercial customers, when you're thinking about data center and manufacturing customers, such that there is a lot of grid investment that has to be covered by others within the system or other opportunities here? It sounded like you kind of see the opposite where you're bringing in a lot of revenue that ends up being downward pressure on the rest of the system. So I'm wondering if you could elaborate a little bit on how you see rates progressing over time.

知道了。這就說得通了。我想知道您是否可以詳細說明您如何考慮負載增長對速率的影響。當您考慮資料中心和製造客戶時，這些低價的新商業客戶是否會導致大量電網投資必須由系統內的其他人或這裡的其他機會來覆蓋？聽起來好像你看到了相反的情況，你帶來了大量收入，最終給系統的其他部分帶來了下行壓力。所以我想知道您是否可以詳細說明您如何看待利率隨時間的變化。

Yes. No, go ahead, Chris.

是的。不，繼續吧，克里斯。

No, we do expect to see rate decreases for our customers with these additional sales and the customer growth that we'll experience. We think that should more than offset the cost of the resources needed to serve. And so we -- affordability is something we pay a lot of attention to, and there are things we do internal. But we think that one of the benefits of this sales growth is having the opportunity to put downward pressure on rates for our customers across the board. And so that's kind of how we see it and how we evaluate each project. I want to make sure that is, in fact, putting downward pressure on rates.

不，我們確實希望看到我們的客戶的費率隨著這些額外的銷售和我們將經歷的客戶成長而下降。我們認為這應該足以抵銷服務所需資源的成本。因此，我們非常關注負擔能力，並且我們在內部做了一些事情。但我們認為，銷售成長的好處之一是有機會為我們的客戶全面施加降費壓力。這就是我們如何看待它以及我們如何評估每個項目。我想確保這實際上給利率帶來了下行壓力。

If you think about where probably every utility company was a year ago, one of the greatest risks facing all of us was affordability. We see this as a tremendous opportunity to de-risk our outlook.

如果你想想一年前每家公用事業公司的情況，我們所有人面臨的最大風險之一就是負擔能力。我們認為這是一個降低我們前景風險的巨大機會。

Our next question is from the line of Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeremy Tonet。

Just wanted to come in, I guess, on the debt funding side, if I could start. I understand the Georgia Power debt funding increase driven by the IRP there. But at the holdco, just wondering what's the main contributor to the kind of big step-up there of expected debt issuance? It looks like several billion in the 2024 plan now, and I think it was much less than that before. So just kind of curious, I guess, on the holdco debt issuance step-up expectations.

我想，如果我可以開始的話，我只是想參與債務融資方面。據我所知，喬治亞電力債務融資的增加是由 IRP 推動的。但在控股公司，只是想知道預期債務發行大幅增加的主要貢獻者是什麼？現在看起來2024年的計畫是好幾億，我覺得比之前少了很多。我想，我只是對控股公司債務發行的預期感到好奇。

Yes. So in terms of the change kind of plan versus plan, Jeremy, it's largely driven by the CapEx as well, right? I mean, ultimately, the parent company is funding Georgia Power's equity contribution. And while we're financing that partially with new equity through our plans, certainly -- it's certainly not all being funded directly with new shares. So there's incremental debt there.

是的。因此，就計劃與計劃的變化而言，傑里米，它很大程度上也是由資本支出驅動的，對嗎？我的意思是，最終，母公司正在為喬治亞電力公司的股權出資提供資金。雖然我們透過我們的計劃用新股本來部分融資，但肯定不是全部直接用新股融資。因此，那裡存在增量債務。

And then just the overall magnitude of the parent company issuances is largely driven by maturities. Again, if you look a couple of pages beyond, there's, I think, over $5 billion worth of maturities in the same time period. So the amount that's kind of new money is much smaller.

然後，母公司發行的整體規模很大程度上是由期限決定的。再說一次，如果你再翻幾頁，我認為同一時期內到期的債券價值超過 50 億美元。因此，新資金的數量要少得多。

Got it. And just curious if you're able to share any thoughts on the Georgia PSC elections here. Just as far as from what you guys see inside the state for those pending elections, do you expect the ballot in the elections to happen before the November general election? Or do you think it all kind of comes in November? Just kind of curious, I guess, how you think timing could shape up there.

知道了。只是好奇您是否能夠在這裡分享對佐治亞州 PSC 選舉的任何想法。就你們對州內即將舉行的選舉的看法來看，你們預計選舉投票會在 11 月大選之前進行嗎？或者你認為這一切都會在十一月到來嗎？我想，你只是有點好奇，你認為時機會如何形成。

I have no idea. I mean that matter is still in the court system. And so we'll observe it, just like you are. But I have no insight into how that's going to play out at this time.

我不知道。我的意思是，這件事仍在法庭系統中審理。所以我們會觀察它，就像你一樣。但我不知道目前情況會如何發展。

Got it. And just a quick last one, if I could. If you guys are running an RFP process in the Georgia IRP and how you think Southern Power -- Georgia Power stacks up, I guess, in RFP process there?

知道了。如果可以的話，請快速講一下最後一個。如果你們正在喬治亞州 IRP 中運行 RFP 流程，我猜你們認為南方電力 - 喬治亞電力公司在 RFP 流程中的表現如何？

Look, just in answering that, generally, Jeremy, I mean, and we've said this before, the IRA is going to position all of our electric utilities to be much more competitive in these kind of self-build options when it comes to resources. Whether or not it plays out in this particular RFP or it's a subsequent RFP or it's a customer-specific siding, those things will happen over time. But it's also likely a function of something later in the plan. So not a '24, '25, maybe not even '26 kind of a resource. We're talking really towards the back end of the plan where that becomes a real opportunity.

聽著，傑里米，我的意思是，一般來說，在回答這個問題時，我們之前已經說過，愛爾蘭共和軍將讓我們所有的電力公司在此類自建選項中更具競爭力。資源。無論它是否在這個特定的 RFP 中發揮作用，還是在後續的 RFP 中，或者是客戶特定的側線中，這些事情都會隨著時間的推移而發生。但這也可能是計劃後期某些事情的函數。所以不是“24”、“25”，甚至可能不是“26”類型的資源。我們真正談論的是計劃的後期，這將成為一個真正的機會。

Our next question is from the line of Durgesh Chopra with Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 Durgesh Chopra 和 Evercore。

Just Dan, is there a way for us to give us a range? And I understand if you can't. But just in terms of the current capital plan, was that the Georgia IRP? What I'm after is what like looks like a successful outcome there as we await the April decision. Just trying to see what is baked into the plan and what to look for in that April decision.

Dan，有沒有辦法給我們一個範圍？如果你做不到，我也能理解。但就目前的資本計劃而言，這就是喬治亞州 IRP 嗎？在我們等待四月的決定時，我所追求的是看起來成功的結果。只是想看看該計劃包含哪些內容以及在四月份的決定中尋找什麼。

Yes. It's a fair question, Durgesh. But this is where I want to stop short of getting ahead of any regulatory processes here. We've kind of characterized in terms of the megawatts that we've included that it's roughly 60% of the kind of brick-and-mortar megawatts that were proposed.

是的。這是一個公平的問題，杜爾吉什。但這就是我想停止領先於任何監管程序的地方。我們以兆瓦為單位進行了描述，其中包含了所提議的實體兆瓦的大約 60%。

And so the best way for me to characterize it without getting ahead of anything is just say that the incremental capital associated with what we didn't include won't be lost in the rounding. It's a pretty meaningful number.

因此，對我來說，在不提前任何事情的情況下描述它的最好方法就是說與我們未包括在內的增量資本不會在四捨五入中丟失。這是一個非常有意義的數字。

Understood. I appreciate that, Dan. And then as we think about, just along those lines, incremental CapEx upside. Is there a rule of thumb just again, just for our models, high level, how should we think about it getting financed? You've got some strong load growth. But when we're thinking about higher CapEx, what percentage could be equity finance versus debt? Any sort of guidance there?

明白了。我很感激，丹。然後，正如我們所思考的，沿著這些思路，增量資本支出上漲。是否有一個經驗法則，對於我們的模型，高水平，我們應該如何考慮它獲得融資？您的負載成長強勁。但是，當我們考慮更高的資本支出時，股權融資與債務融資的比例是多少？有什麼指導嗎？

Yes. I think what we've done with this update is pretty representative of how we think about additional opportunities. So we added $5 billion of capital to this plan. Let's call that $1 billion a year on average. We've added roughly $350 million of equity every year.

是的。我認為我們在這次更新中所做的事情非常代表了我們對更多機會的看法。所以我們為這個計劃增加了 50 億美元的資本。我們稱之為平均每年 10 億美元。我們每年增加約 3.5 億美元的股本。

So that 35% to 40% range is kind of representative of our consolidated equity ratio and represents pretty well what we think is necessary to maintain, if not marginally improve, but really just maintain the credit profile that's already in a really good place.

因此，35% 至40% 的範圍代表了我們的綜合股本比率，並且很好地代表了我們認為維持（即使不是略微改善）所必需的水平，但實際上只是維持已經處於非常良好狀態的信用狀況。

Our next question is from the line of Andrew Weisel with Scotiabank.

我們的下一個問題來自豐業銀行的 Andrew Weisel。

A couple of quick follow-up questions, really. One, just to clarify, the equity of $350 million per year, that's through '26 in the slides. It kind of sounds like you're saying that's through '28. Should we think of that as just a run rate, $350 million per year going forward, and then potentially more if there's more CapEx?

確實有幾個快速的後續問題。一，只是為了澄清一下，每年 3.5 億美元的股本，這是幻燈片中截至 26 年的數據。聽起來你好像在說這已經是28年了。我們是否應該將其視為運行率，即未來每年 3.5 億美元，如果資本支出更多，可能會更高？

Yes. So what that $350 million represents is us turning on what we refer to as our internal plan. So it's issuing new shares through our DRIP, through our 401(k), and that's about the run rate. And it just happens to match up pretty well with the needs associated with the $5 billion of incremental capital.

是的。因此，這 3.5 億美元意味著我們正在啟動我們所謂的內部計畫。因此，它透過我們的 DRIP、401(k) 發行新股，這就是運行率。它恰好與 50 億美元增量資本的相關需求非常匹配。

We typically also maintain an at-the-market plan as flexibility. And so to the extent there's incremental CapEx that emerges, which again is certainly reasonably possible given everything we've described, the ATM is the source that we'll tap into to help finance that.

我們通常也會保留市場計劃作為靈活性。因此，就出現的增量資本支出而言，考慮到我們所描述的一切，這當然是合理可能的，ATM 是我們將利用的來源來幫助融資。

Okay. Very good. Next, on the CapEx update. Just to clarify, and sorry if I missed it. Does that include anything for Alabama solar? Or would that be incremental?

好的。非常好。接下來是資本支出更新。只是為了澄清，如果我錯過了，抱歉。這包括阿拉巴馬州太陽能的任何內容嗎？或者說這會是增量的嗎？

Yes. No, that would be incremental. There's still no new rate-based solar included. So we've remained conservative in terms of our projections there in the outlook.

是的。不，那將是增量的。仍然沒有包括新的基於費率的太陽能。因此，我們對前景的預測保持保守。

And hey, just going back, Andrew, real quickly to the equity question. Just to kind of point out, since it maybe wasn't clear because we only put a 3-year financing plan out there, yes, leaving the plans on every year. And on average, kind of the average increase to shares every year is a fraction of a percent. So that's also kind of in the rounding.

嘿，安德魯，回到股權問題。只是想指出，因為可能還不清楚，因為我們只制定了 3 年融資計劃，是的，每年都保留該計劃。平均而言，每年股票的平均增幅只有百分之零點幾。所以這也是四捨五入的一部分。

Sounds good. One last one, if I may. Dividend growth, you've been very consistent at $0.08 per share, about 3%. Given the CapEx outlook, is there any point in time at which you might reconsider the trajectory?

聽起來不錯。如果可以的話，最後一張。股息成長一直非常穩定，為每股 0.08 美元，約為 3%。考慮到資本支出前景，您是否會在某個時間點重新考慮這一軌跡？

Another terrific question. So we had kind of alluded to the possibility of reevaluating the rate of dividend growth once we got Vogtle 4 into service and kind of had -- we're kind of in a steady state and into the kind of below 70% somewhere.

另一個很棒的問題。因此，我們曾提到過，一旦 Vogtle 4 投入使用，就可能重新評估股息成長率，並且我們處於穩定狀態，並在某個地方低於 70%。

Given our current circumstances, where we are in a place of issuing equity, perhaps one of the most efficient sources of equity is to remain modest in the way we continue to increase the dividend. So I think for the foreseeable future, the trajectory we've been on is a reasonable expectation for the trajectory we'll remain on.

考慮到我們目前的情況，在我們發行股票的情況下，也許最有效的股票來源之一就是繼續增加股息，並保持適度的態度。因此，我認為在可預見的未來，我們所走的軌跡是對我們將繼續走的軌跡的合理預期。

Our next question is from the line of Anthony Crowdell with Mizuho.

我們的下一個問題來自安東尼·克勞德爾和瑞穗的線路。

If I could just pitch up one quick one on the data centers and, I guess, the load growth. It seems like we finally are going to get some load growth in this sector, and we're all looking at data centers as help. But it seems that maybe the rate design question, we're all trying to figure out. Typically, a lower-margin customer, large investment requirement. And earlier, you touched on maybe helping with some customer bills. I just -- my question is, if you go deeper into that on -- is it going to be bigger bill impact and bigger fights in rate design? Or you don't think that's an issue?

如果我能快速介紹一下資料中心以及負載成長的話。看來我們最終將在這個領域獲得一些負載成長，我們都在尋求資料中心的幫助。但看來也許是費率設計問題，我們都在努力弄清楚。通常，利潤較低的客戶需要大量投資。早些時候，您提到可能會幫助解決一些客戶帳單。我只是——我的問題是，如果你更深入地探討這一點——是否會產生更大的帳單影響和更大的費率設計鬥爭？還是你認為這不是問題？

I mean there's always -- there will always be issues. But I think as we look at increased sales, as we look at growth in customers, and then as we work with these new customers, we think this provides us the opportunity to have downward pressure on rates. And so we will work with many of these customers in terms of their pricing.

我的意思是，總是會有問題。但我認為，當我們專注於銷售額的成長、客戶的成長以及與這些新客戶的合作時，我們認為這為我們提供了承受費率下行壓力的機會。因此，我們將在定價方面與其中許多客戶合作。

But once again, I'd just go back to the fundamentals of increased sales opportunity and this customer growth, how that supports the opportunity for us to put downward pressure all across our customer base to see downward pressure on rates. I mean, we'll evaluate each customer to ensure that, in fact, does happen, that they put downward pressure on overall rates across the company.

但我想再次回到銷售機會增加和客戶成長的基本原理，這如何支持我們向整個客戶群施加下行壓力以看到費率下行壓力的機會。我的意思是，我們將評估每個客戶，以確保他們確實對整個公司的整體費率施加了下行壓力。

Yes. And Anthony, what it appears a lot of these data centers are beginning to do is prioritize reliable, resilient service over many other things. That gives us the opportunity to price it appropriately for the benefit of everyone else.

是的。安東尼，許多資料中心似乎開始優先考慮可靠、有彈性的服務，而不是其他許多事情。這使我們有機會為其他人的利益進行適當的定價。

And we'll look at the size, the demand, the timing, there are other factors that will go into making sure that we price service appropriately to those customers.

我們將考慮規模、需求、時間，還有其他因素將確保我們為這些客戶提供適當的服務定價。

Our next question is from the line of Angie Storozynski with Seaport.

我們的下一個問題來自 Seaport 的 Angie Storozynski。

Great. I guess, I know that everybody is asking questions on data centers. But I'm just -- just again, maybe just taking a step back. So when somebody wants to locate a data center in your service territory, do they just get connected to the grid? Or do they develop their own power sources? Do you actually see that they, for instance, have some preference for non-emitting resources? Do they use you more as a backup power source? Again, just -- again, trying to understand the dynamics of those data centers being added to, for instance, in Georgia.

偉大的。我想，我知道每個人都在問有關資料中心的問題。但我只是——再一次，也許只是後退了一步。因此，當有人想要在您的服務區域內找到資料中心時，他們是否只需連接到電網即可？還是他們開發自己的電源？例如，您是否真的看到他們對非排放資源有一定的偏好？他們是否更多地使用你作為備用電源？再次，再次嘗試了解這些資料中心的動態，例如在喬治亞州。

Angie, there are a lot of considerations that go into that decision. And yes, we want to connect them to our grid. And yes, we'll have conversations with them about renewable resources and the mix. But those are conversations that we do have with them, recognizing what upgrade may be made on the system locations, where they are. So there are a lot of kind of really detailed conversations, engineering conversations that go into making those final decisions that also then ultimately impact the pricing for that service.

安吉，做出這個決定有很多考慮因素。是的，我們希望將它們連接到我們的電網。是的，我們將與他們討論可再生資源及其組合。但這些是我們確實與他們進行的對話，並認識到可以對系統位置以及它們所在的位置進行哪些升級。因此，在做出最終決定時需要進行許多非常詳細的對話和工程對話，這些最終決定也會最終影響該服務的定價。

But again, it's not self-supply, right? So they use Georgia Power, for example, as the first source of power?

但話又說回來，這不是自給自足，對吧？例如，他們使用喬治亞電力公司作為第一個電力來源？

Absolutely. Yes, that's correct.

絕對地。對，那是正確的。

Okay. And then secondly, again, I know this question has been asked over and over. Just hard to believe that the load growth is not having a bigger impact on your earnings growth. And again, I don't even imagine this is like an emerging markets sort of pace of load growth, especially for Georgia and those outer years. And yet, there's no impact from -- again, from our vantage point, on your earnings growth. Is it just because the interest expense drag is so pronounced that it absorbs the help that you're getting from higher load growth?

好的。其次，我知道這個問題已經一遍又一遍地被問過。很難相信負載成長不會對您的收入成長產生更大的影響。再說一次，我甚至不認為這就像新興市場的負荷增長速度，特別是對於喬治亞州和其他年份。然而，從我們的角度來看，這對你的收入成長沒有任何影響。難道只是因為利息支出的拖累如此明顯，以至於它吸收了您從更高的負荷增長中獲得的幫助？

Yes, Angie, it's a few things. Certainly, relative to where we were a year ago, and I think we've said this before, in a higher-for-longer environment, certainly, interest is a bigger headwind going forward. But the bigger dynamic in your question is around what we're actually investing in to serve this load or why we're investing. So keep in mind, the 6% for Southern Company sales growth and 9% for Georgia Power, that's kilowatt hour usage. That's the growth in the total kilowatt hours used.

是的，安吉，有幾件事。當然，相對於我們一年前的情況，我想我們之前已經說過了，在一個長期較高的環境中，興趣當然是未來更大的阻力。但你的問題中更大的動態是圍繞我們實際投資什麼來滿足這一負載或我們為什麼投資。因此請記住，南方公司銷售成長 6%，喬治亞電力公司銷售成長 9%，這是千瓦時的使用量。這就是總用電量的成長。

What we invest to do is serve the peaks. And so that looks a little different than the 24/7. We've got a lot of resources. We just may have to incrementally add resources to serve the peaks, and that's what you're seeing largely in the capital deployment. And net-net, we're comfortably in that 5% to 7% growth range.

我們投資做的就是服務高峰。所以這看起來與 24/7 有點不同。我們有很多資源。我們可能只需要逐步添加資源來服務高峰，這就是您在資本部署中看到的大部分內容。從淨值來看，我們輕鬆地處於 5% 到 7% 的成長範圍內。

Our next question is from the line of Paul Fremont with Ladenburg.

我們的下一個問題來自保羅·弗里蒙特和拉登堡。

Congratulations on the good quarter. Just to clarify, if you were not to get sort of the higher growth rate in sales after 2025, would that have an impact or change -- potentially change your 5% to 7% growth target?

恭喜季度業績良好。需要澄清的是，如果您在 2025 年後無法實現更高的銷售額成長率，這是否會產生影響或改變——可能會改變您 5% 至 7% 的成長目標？

No.

不。

Okay. Great. And then I noticed that the gas capital spending is roughly unchanged. Can you sort of share with us what you're anticipating is going to happen in Illinois? And is there spending that's being shifted from Nicor to any of the other gas subsidiaries?

好的。偉大的。然後我注意到天然氣資本支出大致沒有改變。您能與我們分享一下您對伊利諾伊州將會發生什麼嗎？是否有支出從尼科爾公司轉移到其他天然氣子公司？

And yes, I think you got it just right. I mean, we see the opportunities to have some increased capital spending in Atlanta around the operations here in Georgia. So we think that allows that gas investments to be stable going forward. So I think you've spoken to it just right.

是的，我認為你說得對。我的意思是，我們看到了亞特蘭大圍繞喬治亞州業務增加資本支出的機會。因此，我們認為這使得天然氣投資未來能夠保持穩定。所以我認為你說得恰到好處。

Yes. And any changes in Illinois are modest, to be fair. I mean -- and the outcome there for us, while disappointing, also provided a bit of a road map as to how to be successful going forward in navigating that jurisdiction in terms of just the things we've got to make sure we do as we deploy capital.

是的。公平地說，伊利諾伊州的任何變化都是適度的。我的意思是——結果對我們來說雖然令人失望，但也提供了一些路線圖，說明如何在我們必須確保我們所做的事情方面成功地在該管轄區中前進。我們部署資本。

And keep in mind, a huge, vast majority of the capital that's deployed for Nicor Gas is compliance related. And so there's only so much to kind of not do in the first place.

請記住，為尼科爾天然氣公司部署的絕大多數資本都與合規性有關。因此，一開始就有很多事情不能做。

Great. And then my last question. I mean, generally speaking, when we think of EPS growth, with respect to rate base growth, there tends to be dilution to the rate base to the level of rate base growth because a portion -- or the equity portion is funded either by parent debt or by parent equity. So can you help us sort of understand, at 6% rate base growth, is it possible for you to achieve? Or how would you achieve sort of the high end of your growth target?

偉大的。然後是我的最後一個問題。我的意思是，一般來說，當我們考慮每股盈餘成長時，就利率基礎成長而言，利率基礎往往會稀釋到利率基礎成長水平，因為一部分或股權部分是由母公司提供資金的債務或母公司股權。那麼您能否幫助我們了解一下，您是否有可能達到 6% 的基礎成長率？或者您將如何實現成長目標的高端？

Yes. Great question, Paul. So again, we were at 6% growth last year in rate base. We've added $5 billion of incremental capital to that. It's -- we kind of characterize it as approximately 6%. But then also, the shares we're issuing, and I think I mentioned this earlier, was that equates to a fraction of a percentage and it's kind of just in the rounding. We feel very comfortable that net-net, how all these things stack up is a conservative achievable forecast.

是的。好問題，保羅。同樣，去年我們的利率基數成長了 6%。我們為此增加了 50 億美元的增量資本。我們將其描述為大約 6%。但我們發行的股票，我想我之前提到過，這相當於百分比的一小部分，而且只是四捨五入。我們感到非常放心，網絡，所有這些事情如何疊加是一個保守的可實現的預測。

Our next question is from the line of Travis Miller with Morningstar.

我們的下一個問題來自晨星公司的崔維斯米勒。

You've answered almost all of my questions. I do want to follow up on that dividend. It was one of my questions. Just to clarify what you said, you would expect the dividend growth to stay below earnings growth for at least a couple more years. Did I hear that correctly?

你幾乎回答了我所有的問題。我確實想跟進該股息。這是我的問題之一。只是為了澄清你所說的，你預計股息成長至少在未來幾年內將低於獲利成長。我沒聽錯嗎？

Yes. Yes, Travis. You did. And so again, our cadence of growth has been $0.08 per year for several years. I think it's reasonable to expect that to continue. Of course, it's all subject to the Board's oversight and approval.

是的。是的，特拉維斯。你做到了。同樣，我們的成長節奏多年來一直是每年 0.08 美元。我認為有理由期望這種情況會繼續下去。當然，這一切都需要董事會的監督和批准。

But what that will do is take us, during this high period of CapEx, which hopefully goes on for a very long period of time, brings us comfortably down into the 60s from a payout ratio perspective. And so that's a good place to be, and we'll evaluate every year with what the forecast looks like and what's appropriate. Right now, I think the reasonable expectation is that continued modest growth, which is just below 3%.

但這將使我們在資本支出的高點（預計將持續很長一段時間）從支付率的角度來看，使我們輕鬆地降至 60 多歲。所以這是一個很好的地方，我們每年都會根據預測的情況和適當的情況進行評估。目前，我認為合理的預期是繼續溫和成長，略低於3%。

Yes. Okay, very good. And then obviously, a lot of talk about the demand growth. Put another way, what does demand growth mean for operating cost growth? Is there a tight correlation there if you get 6% or whatever percent annual demand growth? Should we also see a similar increase in operating costs? Or is there not a link there?

是的。好的，非常好。顯然，有很多關於需求成長的討論。換句話說，需求成長對營運成本成長意味著什麼？如果年需求成長 6% 或其他百分比，是否有緊密相關性？我們是否也應該看到營運成本出現類似的成長？或者那裡沒有連結？

Yes. There's certainly a relationship. I wouldn't call it a correlation. But to the extent we're building a new gas plant, certainly, that comes along with incremental O&M. To the extent we're building new transmission distribution lines, there's some maintenance component to that. But that's also part of the cost structure that we're ensuring these new rates and revenues will cover, such that the net result is the opportunity to put downward pressure on the existing rates.

是的。肯定有關係。我不會稱之為相關性。但就我們正在建造的新天然氣工廠而言，當然，這會伴隨著增量運作和維護。就我們建造新的輸配電線路而言，其中有一些維護部分。但這也是我們確保這些新費率和收入能夠涵蓋的成本結構的一部分，這樣最終的結果就是有機會對現有費率施加下行壓力。

Our next question is from the line of Ryan Levine with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Ryan Levine。

With Vogtle's COD targeted for April freeing up some management attention and the personnel changes that were highlighted, do you see any meaningful opportunities to reduce O&M spending below the current guidance as time progresses? Or are these initiatives tabled, given all the opportunity in Georgia via the IRP process?

Vogtle 的 COD 目標是在 4 月釋放一些管理層的注意力，並強調了人事變動，隨著時間的推移，您是否認為有任何有意義的機會可以將 O&M 支出減少到當前指導之下？或者考慮到格魯吉亞透過 IRP 流程提供的所有機會，這些措施是否已被擱置？

No. I mean we're always looking across our hand and finding ways to be more efficient. I mean, so there's ongoing efforts to -- once again, as we look at affordability, I mean, we think about the opportunities to keep -- to drive rates from pricing down because of sales growth and because of customer growth, but also making sure that we're focused on looking internally in terms of being more efficient and finding ways to also drive down the cost of our O&M expenses.

不，我的意思是我們總是審視我們的手並尋找提高效率的方法。我的意思是，因此，我們正在不斷努力——再次，當我們考慮可負擔性時，我的意思是，我們考慮了保持——由於銷售增長和客戶增長而降低定價的機會，但也使確保我們專注於在內部尋找提高效率的方法，並尋找降低營運和維護費用成本的方法。

Also, making sure we take full advantage of fuel pricing. I mean you see where natural gas prices are now. So looking across the entire portfolio, I mean, that is an ongoing continuous exercise that we'll always focus on in terms of finding ways to drive down O&M and find ways to be more efficient.

此外，確保我們充分利用燃油定價。我的意思是你看看現在天然氣價格是多少。因此，縱觀整個產品組合，我的意思是，這是一項持續不斷的工作，我們將始終專注於尋找降低營運和維護成本並提高效率的方法。

Yes. And just as a nuance, all the costs associated with completing Vogtle 3 and 4 is out of capital cost. And so those aren't O&M costs that are an opportunity to reduce.

是的。細微之處在於，與完成 Vogtle 3 和 4 相關的所有成本均不屬於資本成本。因此，這些並不是可以降低的營運和維護成本。

Yes. And the last thing I'd add, even though we've had this focus on Vogtle, but it hasn't kept us from paying attention to the fundamentals, to making sure that we provide the service that customers expect, but also being focused on the cost of our product.

是的。我要補充的最後一件事是，儘管我們非常關注 Vogtle，但這並沒有阻止我們專注於基本面，以確保我們提供客戶期望的服務，同時也保持專注關於我們產品的成本。

Okay. And then what's the peak hour load growth forecast in Georgia? And how much lower is that than the total kilowatt hour growth number that you cited? And as you're looking to execute on this plan, how -- are there any limitations with supply chains that could constrain growth opportunities via the IRP process?

好的。那麼喬治亞州的高峰時段負載成長預測是多少？這比您引用的總千瓦時增長數字低多少？當您希望執行該計劃時，供應鏈是否存在可能限制 IRP 流程成長機會的限制？

Yes. Look, on supply chain, I think we're in terrific shape, given our scale and just -- we've kind of seen this coming for a little while to the point where we can deploy the resources needed. On your peak question, we'll have to follow up with you on that. Just -- let's connect with the Investor Relations team and get you an answer then.

是的。看，在供應鏈上，我認為考慮到我們的規模，我們的狀況非常好，而且我們已經看到這種情況已經有一段時間了，我們可以部署所需的資源。關於您提出的最重要的問題，我們將不得不跟進您的情況。只是——讓我們聯繫投資者關係團隊，然後給您答案。

Our next question is from the line of Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates.

我們的下一個問題來自 Glenrock Associates 的 Paul Patterson。

Congratulations on these opportunities that you guys have. Just with respect to the data center stuff, I mean, A, you did indicate in your prepared remarks it seemed that this is based on actual sort of activity, physical construction activity, et cetera. Is it correct to assume that these guys -- these data centers, et cetera, have a price in mind at this -- I mean, they wouldn't be doing this -- I mean, obviously, they're using a large amount of electricity. It's part of the economics of their determination to move that this -- that they know how much they're going to be essentially paying for power if they're doing this, correct?

恭喜你們獲得這些機會。就資料中心而言，我的意思是，A，您確實在準備好的評論中指出，這似乎是基於實際類型的活動、實體建設活動等。假設這些人——這些數據中心等等，對此有一個價格——我的意思是，他們不會這樣做——我的意思是，顯然，他們正在使用大量的數據，這是正確的嗎？的電力。這是他們決心採取這一行動的經濟學的一部分——他們知道如果他們這樣做，他們基本上將為電力支付多少費用，對嗎？

I think there is -- yes, I mean, they may not know exactly what the price will be. But once again, as we sit with them, understanding their needs, what their desires are and the level of service, I mean that all goes into consideration of what the ultimate price will be. I mean, the value, location, reliability, resiliency, all of those things go into consideration as we kind of price these projects out. And so that's a part of the negotiation. That's a part of the conversation that we have with it.

我認為——是的，我的意思是，他們可能不知道確切的價格是多少。但再次，當我們與他們坐在一起，了解他們的需求、他們的願望以及服務水平時，我的意思是，所有這些都會考慮到最終的價格。我的意思是，當我們為這些項目定價時，我們會考慮價值、位置、可靠性、彈性，所有這些因素。這就是談判的一部分。這是我們與之對話的一部分。

Okay. In some jurisdictions, because they have their own backup power because they have to be there in case there is an outage or something, they have to get approval from regulatory commissions, their respective state regulatory commissions. Is that the case in Georgia?

好的。在一些司法管轄區，因為他們有自己的備用電源，因為他們必須在那裡以防停電或其他情況，所以他們必須獲得監管委員會及其各自州監管委員會的批准。喬治亞也是這樣嗎？

No. I mean, like I said, I mean, we will -- I mean they will...

不，我的意思是，就像我說的，我的意思是，我們會——我的意思是他們會…

Yes, there's some customer-sided programs that have been proposed in the IRP, Paul, that those are being evaluated and those kind of serve the same purpose. But it's not the dynamic that you're describing in those other states.

是的，IRP 中提出了一些客戶方計劃，Paul，這些計劃正在接受評估，並且這些計劃具有相同的目的。但這不是您在其他州所描述的動態。

Okay. Then just roughly speaking, when we're talking about the average data center rate versus the system rate, is there a rule of thumb as to where that kind of is? Do you follow what I'm saying? In other words, I mean how much of a percentage of the average system rate for Georgia Power, let's say, would a data center customer be roughly? I mean, just roughly speaking, like you're getting.

好的。那麼粗略地說，當我們談論平均資料中心速率與系統速率時，是否有一個經驗法則來說明這種情況在哪裡？你聽懂我說的了嗎？換句話說，我的意思是，喬治亞電力公司的資料中心客戶約佔平均係統速率的百分比是多少？我的意思是，粗略地說，就像你得到的那樣。

I don't think so. I think we may be better informed as we bring some more projects online. Right now, I think -- I don't think that would be the case. And plus, it could be trade secrets as well, so...

我不這麼認為。我認為，當我們將更多項目上線時，我們可能會更了解情況。現在，我認為——我不認為情況會是這樣。另外，它也可能是商業秘密，所以......

Okay. Then just finally, when we're looking at '26, '27 and '28, in that 9% number, for instance, for Georgia Power, does that go up a lot? Like in other words, is it kind of -- I mean, is '26 -- is '28 a lot higher than '26, if you follow what I'm saying? In other words, it's a 3-year period. The number jumps up a lot in that period. Do you follow what I'm saying? In other words, is it roughly the -- ratable over that period of time? Or is this sort of a hockey stick in terms of what you see in terms of demand growth?

好的。最後，當我們查看「26」、「27」和「28」時，例如喬治亞電力公司的 9% 數字，這個數字是否上升了很多？換句話說，如果你聽懂了我的意思的話，是不是——我的意思是，「26」——「28」比「26」高很多？換句話說，這是一個3年的時期。在此期間，這個數字激增了很多。你聽懂我說的了嗎？換句話說，該時間段內的評級是否大致相同？或者從您所看到的需求成長來看，這是否是一個曲棍球棒？

Yes. It's fairly ratable, Paul. It's obviously not perfectly linear by any means. But that -- the significant load really begins to come in, in, say, late '25 and into '26, which is why a lot of the resource proposals you see at Georgia Power are to really serve the '26, '27 winter peak to make sure they're in place for that, and then it continues to grow from there.

是的。這是相當值得評價的，保羅。無論如何，它顯然都不是完美的線性。但是，大量負荷確實開始出現，比如說，25 年末和 26 年，這就是為什麼你在佐治亞電力公司看到的許多資源提案都是為了真正服務於 26 年、27 年冬季高峰以確保他們已就位，然後從那裡繼續增長。

Thank you. And that will conclude today's question-and-answer session. Sir, are there any closing remarks?

謝謝。今天的問答環節就到此結束。先生，有結束語嗎？

Again, let me say, Southern Company had an exceptional year in 2023. And I am really excited about the future of this company. Let me thank everybody for joining us today and wish everybody a happy day, and thank you very much.

我再說一遍，南方公司在 2023 年度過了不平凡的一年。我對這家公司的未來感到非常興奮。讓我感謝大家今天加入我們並祝大家有個愉快的一天，非常感謝。

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the Southern Company Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. You may now disconnect. Have a good day.

謝謝你，先生。女士們、先生們，南方公司 2023 年第四季財報電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。祝你有美好的一天。