Sanofi SA (SNY) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Thomas Larsen - Head of Investor Relations

    Thomas Larsen - Head of Investor Relations

  • Hello, everyone. This is Thomas Kudsk Larsen from the Sanofi IR team. Welcome to the Q1 2025 conference call for investors and analysts. As usual, you can find the slides on sanofi.com.

    大家好。這是賽諾菲 IR 團隊的 Thomas Kudsk Larsen。歡迎參加 2025 年第一季投資者和分析師電話會議。像往常一樣,您可以在 sanofi.com 上找到幻燈片。

  • Please turn to slide number 3, please. Here, we have the usual forward-looking statements. We would like to remind you that information presented in this call contains forward-looking statements which are subject to substantial risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. We encourage you to read the disclaimer in our slide presentation. In addition, we refer to our new Form 20-F on file with the US SEC and our France Registration Document for a description of these risk factors.

    請翻到第 3 張投影片。這裡,我們有通常的前瞻性陳述。我們想提醒您,本次電話會議中提供的資訊包含前瞻性陳述,這些陳述受重大風險和不確定性的影響,可能導致實際結果大不相同。我們鼓勵您閱讀投影片簡報中的免責聲明。此外,我們參考了向美國證券交易委員會提交的新 20-F 表格和法國註冊文件來了解這些風險因素的描述。

  • As last quarter, financials reported are under the new reporting scope that excludes the Opella Consumer Health business. As usual, we will be making comments on our performance using constant exchange rates and other non-IFRS measures. Numbers used are in millions of euros and for Q1 2025, unless stated otherwise.

    與上一季一樣,財務報告屬於新的報告範圍,不包括 Opella 消費者健康業務。像往常一樣,我們將使用固定匯率和其他非國際財務報告準則指標來評論我們的業績。除非另有說明,所用數字均以百萬歐元為單位,且為 2025 年第一季的數字。

  • Now, please turn to slide number 4. First, we have a presentation, then we'll take your questions. We have kept the presentation as short as in the past, as other companies report today, and we aim at keeping the call to maximum one hour.

    現在請翻到第 4 張投影片。首先,我們有一個演示,然後我們會回答您的問題。正如其他公司今天所報告的那樣,我們將演示過程保持得和過去一樣簡短,我們的目標是將通話時間控制在最多一小時內。

  • For Q&A, we have Brian, Olivier, Thomas to cover our global businesses; as well as Roy, our General Counsel; and Brendan, Head of Manufacturing and Supply. For the Q&A, you have two options in Zoom: raise your hand or submit your question using the Q&A function.

    在問答環節,我們邀請了 Brian、Olivier 和 Thomas 來介紹我們的全球業務;以及我們的總法律顧問 Roy;以及製造和供應主管 Brendan。對於問答,您在 Zoom 中有兩個選項:舉手或使用問答功能提交問題。

  • With this, I'll hand you over to Paul.

    說完,我就把你交給保羅。

  • Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

    Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Well, thank you, Thomas. Nicely done. And hello, everyone, on the call.

    好吧,謝謝你,托馬斯。做得好。大家好,我是電話裡的大家。

  • We had a strong start to 2025 with a 9.7% sales growth in the first quarter. Our strategic focus on innovation continues to deliver, driven by pharma launches, Dupixent, and Beyfortus in our Vaccines portfolio.

    2025 年我們有一個強勁的開局,第一季的銷售額成長了 9.7%。在疫苗產品組合中的藥品發布、Dupixent 和 Beyfortus 的推動下,我們對創新的策略重點持續落實。

  • Let me highlight our performance of new launches on slide 6. In Q1, our launches generated EUR1.1 billion in sales, contributing 11% of the total. This performance was driven by an element of Beyfortus phasing and expansion in Europe and rest of the world. ALTUVIIIO benefited from continued patient switches and has the potential to become our next blockbuster this year. Of note, on March 28, we obtained FDA approval for Qfitlia in hemophilia, one of three potential launches this year, with initial prescriptions already recorded in early Q2.

    讓我在第 6 張投影片上重點介紹我們新產品的表現。第一季度,我們推出的產品創造了 11 億歐元的銷售額,佔總銷售額的 11%。這項業績是由 Beyfortus 在歐洲和世界其他地區的分階段擴張所推動的。ALTUVIIIO 受益於持續的患者轉換,並有可能成為我們今年的下一個重磅炸彈。值得注意的是,3 月 28 日,我們獲得了 FDA 對用於治療血友病的 Qfitlia 的批准,這是今年可能推出的三種藥物之一,初始處方已在第二季度初記錄。

  • Moving to slide 7, Dupixent. Dupixent delivered strong growth of 20% in Q1, driven by broad-based demand, and reached EUR3.5 billion of sales. In the US, sales were EUR2.5 billion in the quarter, up 18%. Dupixent now also leads total prescription share across all approved indications. As usual in the first quarter, US sales reflected the impact from the annual reset of insurance deductibles, driving higher utilization of Copay assistance.

    移至幻燈片 7,Dupixent。在廣泛需求的推動下,Dupixent 在第一季實現了 20% 的強勁成長,銷售額達到 35 億歐元。在美國,本季銷售額為 25 億歐元,成長 18%。Dupixent 目前在所有核准適應症的總處方份額中也佔據領先地位。與第一季一樣,美國銷售額反映了年度保險免賠額重置的影響,推動了 Copay 援助的利用率提高。

  • Outside the US, Dupixent sales exceeded EUR1 billion for the first time, supported by the contribution from Japan, China, and Germany. Looking at the remainder of the year, we will continue to drive Dupixent's growth across our markets and in all approved indications.

    在美國以外,Dupixent 的銷售額首次超過 10 億歐元,這得益於日本、中國和德國的貢獻。展望今年剩餘時間,我們將繼續推動 Dupixent 在我們的市場和所有核准適應症中的成長。

  • As a reminder, biopenetration still remains quite low. We are excited about the US approval for CSU last week and the upcoming regulatory decision in the US for bullous pemphigoid. These additional indications continue to expand our leadership across type 2 inflammatory diseases.

    需要提醒的是,生物滲透率仍然很低。我們對美國上週批准 CSU 以及即將出台的大皰性類天皰瘡監管決定感到非常興奮。這些額外的適應症繼續擴大我們在 2 型發炎疾病領域的領導地位。

  • On slide 8, let me briefly remind you of the high unmet need among people with uncontrolled COPD, many of whom have resigned themselves to their condition. Dupixent is the first biologic medicine approved in this disease. We have already launched COPD in eight countries, including the US, Germany, China, and Japan. Dupixent's value is being recognized by payers in key countries, ensuring access for all patients.

    在第 8 張投影片上,請容許我簡要地提醒大家,患有未受控制的 COPD 的人群中存在著很大的未滿足需求,其中許多人已經接受了自己的病情。Dupixent 是第一個獲準用於治療該疾病的生物藥物。我們已經在美國、德國、中國和日本等八個國家推出了 COPD。Dupixent 的價值正在得到主要國家付款人的認可,確保所有患者都能獲得治療。

  • To improve adoption, we focus on two main objectives. First, we continue to educate pulmonologists about Dupixent's benefits, the role of type 2 inflammation, and the urgency to treat patients. Second, to drive patient awareness, in April, we just launched our DTC campaign in the US.

    為了提高採用率,我們專注於兩個主要目標。首先,我們繼續向肺病專家宣傳​​ Dupixent 的益處、2 型發炎的作用以及治療患者的迫切性。其次,為了提高患者意識,我們於四月在美國啟動了 DTC 活動。

  • Moving to slide 9, our Vaccine business delivered double-digit growth in Q1. This performance was driven by favorable Beyfortus phasing and new country launches. In the US, we are focused on improving the immunization rate to ensure infants born in late season are also immunized and protected.

    第 9 張投影片顯示,我們的疫苗業務在第一季實現了兩位數的成長。這項業績是由 Beyfortus 的有利分階段部署和新國家推出所推動的。在美國,我們致力於提高免疫接種率,以確保晚季出生的嬰兒也能獲得免疫和保護。

  • Turning to flu, our manufacturing is progressing as planned, following the WHO and FDA strain selection. As the world leader in flu vaccines, we continue to focus on improving the vaccination rate by increasing awareness of the benefits of our differentiated flu vaccines.

    談到流感,我們的生產正在按照計劃進行,遵循世界衛生組織和 FDA 的菌株選擇。作為流感疫苗領域的全球領導者,我們繼續致力於透過提高人們對我們差異化流感疫苗益處的認識來提高疫苗接種率。

  • On our Vaccines pipeline, we continue to push the boundaries of innovation, pioneering the development of a vaccine candidate for the prevention of chlamydia. In March, the US FDA granted fast-track designation and recognition of our commitment to improving public health and addressing high unmet medical needs.

    在我們的疫苗研發線上,我們不斷突破創新的界限,率先開發預防披衣菌感染的候選疫苗。今年3月,美國FDA授予我們快速通道資格,認可我們致力於改善公共衛生和解決大量未滿足的醫療需求。

  • On slide 10, I'd like to introduce you to our updated sustainability strategy, focused on aligning health outcomes with environmental and social responsibility. Environmental challenges and human health, an estimated 3.6 billion people are living in climate-sensitive areas, with 6 million deaths reported annually from air pollution alone, that makes it clear people's health and environment are deeply linked.

    在第 10 張投影片上,我想向大家介紹我們最新的永續發展策略,重點是將健康成果與環境和社會責任結合。環境挑戰與人類健康,估計有36億人生活在氣候敏感地區,每年僅因空氣污染就造成600萬人死亡,顯示人們的健康和環境是緊密相連的。

  • Our new AIR strategy focuses our efforts on three strategic imperatives: access to healthcare, environmental impact, and the resilience of healthcare systems. With over 70% of our portfolio and more than 75% of our pipeline involved in climate-related diseases, Sanofi has a key role to play. And through AIR, we are furthering Sanofi's commitment to global health by working to break the cycle of environmental decline and declining public health.

    我們的新 AIR 策略重點在於三大策略要點:醫療保健的可近性、環境影響以及醫療保健系統的彈性。賽諾菲的產品組合中超過 70% 和產品線中超過 75% 涉及氣候相關疾病,因此發揮關鍵作用。透過 AIR,我們致力於打破環境惡化和公眾健康狀況下降的循環,進一步履行賽諾菲對全球健康的承諾。

  • Thank you. I'll now hand over to Francois, our CFO, for more details on the financials.

    謝謝。現在我將把時間交給我們的財務長弗朗索瓦 (Francois),以了解有關財務的更多詳細資訊。

  • Francois-Xavier Roger - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Executive Committee

    Francois-Xavier Roger - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Thank you, Paul, and hello to everyone.

    謝謝你,保羅,大家好。

  • As highlighted by Paul earlier, net sales increased by 9.7% at constant exchange rates to EUR9.9 billion. This growth was primarily driven by Dupixent, by our new product launches, and by favorable phasing in Vaccines. Gross margin improved significantly to 78%, up 2.3 percentage points from the previous year, driven primarily by an improved product mix and by efficiencies.

    正如保羅之前強調的那樣,以固定匯率計算,淨銷售額增長了 9.7%,達到 99 億歐元。這一成長主要得益於 Dupixent、我們新產品的推出以及疫苗的有利分階段推進。毛利率大幅提高至 78%,比上年上升 2.3 個百分點,主要得益於產品組合的改善和效率的提高。

  • Our Q1 effective tax rate was 22.3%, linked to a one-off item this quarter. We maintain our full-year indication of a broadly stable effective tax rate versus 2024, which means around 20% for this current year. Business EPS was EUR1.79, up 15.7%, reflecting our strong sales performance, our improved gross margin, and our operating leverage. This Q1 growth confirms our expected strong EPS rebound in 2025.

    我們第一季的有效稅率為 22.3%,與本季的一次性項目相關。我們維持全年有效稅率與 2024 年基本保持穩定的預測,這意味著今年的有效稅率約為 20%。業務每股收益為 1.79 歐元,成長 15.7%,反映了我們強勁的銷售業績、提高的毛利率和經營槓桿。第一季的成長證實了我們預期的 2025 年每股收益強勁反彈。

  • Moving to Opella, we expect to close the transaction in the coming days. Sanofi will receive about EUR10 billion while retaining a significant stake in Opella to support the company in its journey to independence and to participate in its future value creation. The expected proceeds from this sale will be reallocated in accordance with our capital allocation policy, presented on the right-hand side of this slide.

    轉向歐佩拉,我們預計將在未來幾天完成交易。賽諾菲將獲得約100億歐元,同時保留奧佩拉的大量股份,以支持該公司走向獨立並參與其未來的價值創造。此次出售的預期收益將根據我們的資本配置政策重新分配,如本投影片右側所示。

  • First, our primary focus is to invest in our business to drive organic growth, which means investing in R&D, sales and marketing, industrial assets, AI and talents, just to name a few. Second, we continue to explore external growth opportunities through bolt-on acquisitions. In March, for example, we agreed to acquire DR-0201 from Dren Bio. These promising molecules transcend our early pipeline in immunology.

    首先,我們的主要重點是投資我們的業務以推動有機成長,這意味著投資研發、銷售和行銷、工業資產、人工智慧和人才等等。其次,我們持續透過附加收購探索外部成長機會。例如,三月我們同意從 Dren Bio 收購 DR-0201。這些有前景的分子超越了我們早期在免疫學領域的研究方向。

  • Third, we maintain a progressive dividend policy, and 2025 will mark our 30th consecutive year of dividend increase. Fourth, regarding value-enhancing share repurchases, we are executing our EUR5 billion share buyback program in 2025, with 76% already completed as of yesterday. We have repurchased 37.7 million shares at an average price of EUR1.5, all for the purpose of consolidation. This underscores our commitment to delivering long-term shareholder value and partially mitigating the dilution from the Opella transaction.

    第三,我們堅持漸進式股利政策,2025年將是我們連續第30年增加股利。第四,關於增值股票回購,我們正在執行2025年50億歐元的股票回購計劃,截至昨天已完成76%。我們以平均 1.5 歐元的價格回購了 3,770 萬股,全部用於合併目的。這強調了我們致力於實現長期股東價值並部分減輕奧佩拉交易帶來的稀釋的承諾。

  • Looking ahead to the balance of 2025, I would like to remind you of some anticipated key business dynamics, which may be helpful for modeling purposes. For Q2, please note that Lantus US sales started to increase materially in Q2 2024 due to the unavailability of a competitor's product, representing a higher base of comparison for the next few quarters. Despite this higher baseline, we expect stable sales for Lantus in 2025 as we continue to capitalize on favorable market dynamics and competitive opportunities.

    展望2025年的平衡,我想提醒大家一些預期的關鍵業務動態,這可能有助於建模目的。對於第二季度,請注意,由於競爭對手的產品不可用,Lantus 美國銷售額在 2024 年第二季度開始大幅增長,這代表著接下來幾季的比較基數更高。儘管基準較高,但我們預計 2025 年 Lantus 的銷售將保持穩定,因為我們將繼續利用有利的市場動態和競爭機會。

  • In R&D, we remind you that we received in Q2 2024 a one-off payment from Sobi of about EUR200 million for the development of ALTUVOCT at the time of approval in Europe. For the full year 2025, foreign exchange impact is moving against us, and it is now estimated to be around minus 1.5% on sales and around minus 2% on EPS. All other business dynamics remain unchanged compared to what we communicated at the beginning of the year.

    在研發方面,我們提醒您,我們在 2024 年第二季收到了 Sobi 的一次性付款,金額約為 2 億歐元,用於在歐洲批准時開發 ALTUVOCT。對於 2025 年全年而言,外匯影響對我們不利,目前估計對銷售額的影響約為 -1.5%,對每股盈餘的影響約為 -2%。與年初我們溝通的情況相比,其他所有業務動態均保持不變。

  • I now hand over to Houman to provide an update on the progress of our innovative pipeline.

    現在我把時間交給 Houman,讓他介紹我們創新管道的最新進展。

  • Houman Ashrafian - Executive Vice President, Head of Research and Development, Member of the Executive Committee

    Houman Ashrafian - Executive Vice President, Head of Research and Development, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Thank you, Francois.

    謝謝你,弗朗索瓦。

  • During the first quarter, we obtained six approvals, including Qfitlia, the first antithrombin-lowering prophylaxis therapy for patients with hemophilia A or B, regardless of inhibitors, and additional approvals for Dupixent in COPD in Japan and CSU in the US, and Sarclisa across different lines in several countries. Moreover, as Paul has already alluded to, Dupixent was granted priority review in bullous pemphigoid with a PDUFA date of June 20. This was followed by regulatory acceptance of tolebrutinib, which is now set for a PDUFA date of September 28, complemented by two recent New England Journal paper publications.

    在第一季度,我們獲得了六項批准,包括 Qfitlia,這是第一個針對血友病 A 或 B 患者的抗凝血酶降低預防療法,無論其抑製劑如何,此外還獲得了日本 COPD 藥物 Dupixent 和美國 CSU 藥物的批准,以及多個國家不同產品線的 Sarclisa 的批准。此外,正如保羅已經提到的,Dupixent 在治療大皰性類天皰瘡方面獲得了優先審查,PDUFA 日期為 6 月 20 日。隨後,托布替尼獲得了監管機構的批准,目前該藥物的 PDUFA 日期定於 9 月 28 日,同時最近在《新英格蘭雜誌》上發表了兩篇論文。

  • As Francois said, last month, we announced the acquisition of DR-0201 from Dren Bio, a potential first-in-class CD20-directed bispecific antibody targeting and engaging myeloid cells, with a potentially favorable and superior safety profile compared to T-cell engagers, which may carry a risk of cytokine release syndrome and other immunological risks. DR-201 (sic - "DR-0201") has the potential to induce deep B-cell depletion via phagocytosis, enabling sustained treatment-free remission in autoimmune diseases such as lupus and where significant unmet medical need remains.

    正如 Francois 所說,上個月,我們宣布從 Dren Bio 收購 DR-0201,這是一種潛在的首創 CD20 導向雙特異性抗體,靶向並結合髓系細胞,與 T 細胞結合劑相比,具有潛在的有利和優越的安全性,而 T 細胞結合劑可能存在細胞激素釋放綜合徵和其他免疫風險。DR-201(原文如此 - “DR-0201”)具有透過吞噬作用誘導深度 B 細胞耗竭的潛力,從而使狼瘡等自體免疫疾病以及仍存在大量未滿足醫療需求的疾病能夠實現持續的無治療緩解。

  • Next slide, please. Last week, we shared advances from our mid- and late-stage respiratory pipeline for amlitelimab, lunsekimig, and itepekimab across several indications. The clinical evidence supporting the OX40 ligand inhibition across three major diseases, namely asthma, HS, and AD, is compelling.

    請看下一張投影片。上週,我們分享了 amlitelimab、lunsekimig 和 itepekimab 在多種適應症中的中後期呼吸道治療管線的進展。支持 OX40 配體抑制對氣喘、HS 和 AD 三種主要疾病的臨床證據令人信服。

  • Furthermore, the efficacy of our medicines targeting this pathway with different modalities is supported by the following data. Preliminary efficacy results show that the treatment with amlitelimab led to clinically meaningful and durable efficacy on exacerbations, lung function, and symptoms in patients with moderate to severe asthma, including in, but not limited to, those with heterogeneous inflammation. This limited Phase 2 forearm dose-finding study did not reach statistical significance, the primary endpoint of reductions in exacerbations at the highest dose level in the ITT population. As a result, all the endpoints are highly biologically plausible, but exploratory.

    此外,以下數據支持我們以不同方式針對此途徑的藥物的療效。初步療效結果顯示,amlitelimab 治療對中度至重度氣喘患者(包括但不限於異質性發炎患者)的病情發作、肺功能和症狀具有臨床意義且持久的療效。這項有限的 2 期前臂劑量探索研究未達到統計學意義,即 ITT 族群中最高劑量下急性發作減少的主要終點。因此,所有終點在生物學上都是高度合理的,但只是探索性的。

  • In certain groups, including the subgroup of patients with high xenophils and elevated neutrophils, amlitelimab showed a robust reduction of more than 70% in the annualized rate of severe exacerbations of asthma. Amlitelimab was generally well-tolerated with no new safety concerns. We, and members of some of the KOL community, feel that they are very excited by this result. With the relevant statistical caveats that I've already mentioned, amlitelimab appears to have a differentiated efficacy profile in selected asthma patients, potentially representing a breakthrough for this underserved population, if this result is confirmed in future Phase 3 studies for which we are in the midst of designing.

    在某些族群中,包括高異質性粒細胞和嗜中性球升高的患者亞群,amlitelimab 顯示氣喘嚴重惡化的年發生率顯著降低 70% 以上。Amlitelimab 整體耐受性良好,沒有新的安全問題。我們和一些KOL社群的成員都對這個結果感到非常興奮。結合我已經提到的相關統計注意事項,如果這一結果在我們正在設計的未來 3 期研究中得到證實,amlitelimab 在選定的哮喘患者中似乎具有差異化的療效特徵,這可能代表著這一服務不足人群的突破。

  • As our early R&D pipeline continues to develop pleasingly, I'd like to take this opportunity to shine a light on our versatile NANOBODY platform. Not only has this produced the potentially best-in-class in asthma drug lunsekimig, but now it has continued to deliver with brivekimig, our anti-TNF, anti-OX40 bispecific in HS.

    隨著我們早期的研發管道繼續順利發展,我想藉此機會介紹我們多功能的 NANOBODY 平台。這不僅產生了可能成為同類最佳的氣喘藥物 lunsekimig,而且現在它還繼續在 HS 中推出我們的抗 TNF、抗 OX40 雙特異性藥物 brivekimig。

  • Brivekimig achieved its primary objective with clinically meaningful improvements of both HiSCR50, the primary endpoint, and other endpoints in patients with moderate to severe HS that are naive to biologics. I'm delighted to observe that the treatment benefit has a competitive efficacy profile when compared to currently approved and emerging medicines in HS, with a safety profile in line with expectations and no new safety concerns. These results show the potential to increase efficacy by targeting OX40 ligand on top of the conventional anti-TNF treatment in HS through this dual-targeting mechanism is effective. We have therefore decided to prioritize brivekimig for further development in HS.

    Brivekimig 實現了其主要目標,在未使用生物製劑的中度至重度 HS 患者中,HiSCR50(主要終點)和其他終點均獲得了具有臨床意義的改善。我很高興地看到,與目前批准的和新興的 HS 藥物相比,該治療方案具有競爭性的療效,安全性符合預期,沒有新的安全問題。這些結果表明,透過這種雙重標靶機制,在 HS 的傳統抗 TNF 治療基礎上靶向 OX40 配體,有可能提高療效。因此,我們決定優先考慮 brivekimig 在 HS 中的進一步發展。

  • Finally, amlitelimab recruitment is progressing ahead of plans in atopic dermatitis for the Phase 3 studies. The OCEANA program is anticipated to read out in its entirety in 2026 and will provide the foundation for future regulatory submissions. As a result of the accelerated recruitment, the initial results from COAST 1 and SHORE studies might emerge earlier than anticipated.

    最後,amlitelimab 的招募工作正在按計劃提前進行,用於異位性皮膚炎的 3 期研究。OCEANA 計畫預計將於 2026 年全面實施,並為未來的監管提交奠定基礎。由於招募速度加快,COAST 1 和 SHORE 研究的初步結果可能會比預期更早出現。

  • Turning to balinatunfib, preliminary safety results show that the treatment was generally well tolerated across multiple doses with no new safety concerns being identified. Most significantly, the study confirmed its differentiated safety profile. While the primary endpoint of PASI-75 compared to placebo, amongst the highest treatment dose evaluated in patients with naive to biologics, moderate to severe plaque psoriasis did not meet the statistical significance due to the nature of this limited Phase 2 study. Lower doses across naive and experienced patients showed clinically relevant PASI-75 responses, which are comparable to other medicines previously assessed in psoriasis.

    談到 balinatunfib,初步安全結果顯示,該治療在多次劑量治療中整體耐受性良好,沒有發現新的安全問題。最重要的是,該研究證實了其差異化的安全性。雖然 PASI-75 與安慰劑相比的主要終點是,在對未使用生物製劑的患者中評估的最高治療劑量中,由於這項有限的 2 期研究的性質,中度至重度斑塊狀銀屑病未達到統計學意義。較低劑量對初治和有經驗的患者均表現出臨床相關的 PASI-75 反應,這與先前在牛皮癬中評估的其他藥物相當。

  • Our additional Phase 2 in RA is anticipated to read out later in the latter part of this year. If successful, we will combine our oral TNFR1 signaling inhibitor, an innovative standard of care therapies, with a view to increasing the efficacy ceiling.

    我們在 RA 中的附加第 2 階段預計將於今年下半年完成。如果成功,我們將結合口服 TNFR1 訊號抑制劑(一種創新的標準護理療法),以期提高療效上限。

  • As we've always considered one potential application of this molecule in combinations, including fixed dose combination, we are assessing combination options with internal assets. In addition, we're at various stages of discussion with major pharma and biotech partners to generate novel combinations for multiple immune mediated diseases. For example, with Eli Lilly and Company, we're exploring the potential to combine incretins with Sanofi immunology pipeline medicines, such as balinatunfib.

    由於我們一直在考慮這種分子在組合(包括固定劑量組合)中的一種潛在應用,因此我們正在評估具有內部資產的組合選項。此外,我們正與主要製藥和生物技術合作夥伴進行不同階段的討論,以針對多種免疫介導疾病產生新的組合。例如,我們正在與禮來公司合作,探索將腸促胰島素與賽諾菲免疫學系列藥物(如 balinatunfib)結合的可能性。

  • The updates on the progress of our pipeline today support our ongoing commitment to bringing innovative medicines to all patients. It is acknowledged that the study design and previous strategy were not optimized in all cases. However, the incorporation of this knowledge to enhance productivity is on the way.

    我們今天發布的管道進展更新支持了我們持續致力於為所有患者提供創新藥物的承諾。必須承認,研究設計和先前的策略並非在所有情況下都得到了最佳化。然而,利用這些知識來提高生產力的努力正在進行中。

  • Furthermore, the progress of new studies exploring lunsekimig, the potentially broader use in high risk asthma, COPD and atopic dermatitis, and itepekimab in CRS with and without nasal polyps continue to reinforce our pipeline.

    此外,探索 lunsekimig 在高風險氣喘、慢性阻塞性肺病和異位性皮膚炎中的潛在更廣泛用途以及 itepekimab 在伴有和不伴有鼻息肉的慢性鼻竇炎中的應用的新研究的進展繼續加強我們的產品線。

  • The FDA's recent approval of Qfitlia as a prophylaxis for patients with hemophilia A and B, irrespective of inhibitors, underpins a significant milestone for this community of patients with a unique mechanism of action. Qfitlia is a small interfering ribonucleic acid therapy that targets antithrombin, requiring only six small-volume subcutaneous injections per year. This approval is expected to contribute to a redefinition of the standard of care with a reduced treatment burden resulting from optimized dosing, complemented by AT levels monitored by Siemens' companion diagnostic, available at no cost with Sanofi-Labcorp support program. A regulatory decision in China is anticipated by the end of the year, with submissions in the EU and Japan expected next year once pediatric data are available.

    FDA 最近批准 Qfitlia 作為預防血友病 A 和 B 患者的藥物,無論其抑制劑如何,這為這個具有獨特作用機制的患者群體奠定了重要的里程碑。Qfitlia 是一種針對抗凝血酶的小幹擾核糖核酸療法,每年只需進行六次小劑量皮下注射。預計此次批准將有助於重新定義護理標準,透過優化劑量減輕治療負擔,並輔以西門子伴隨診斷監測的 AT 水平(可透過賽諾菲實驗室支持計畫免費獲得)。預計中國將於今年底做出監管決定,一旦獲得兒科數據,歐盟和日本預計明年提交申請。

  • I'd like to conclude with my usual news flow slide for 2025 and the next year. We plan 11 Phase 3 readouts, 15 regulatory submissions, and 14 regulatory decisions in multiple jurisdictions, increasingly capturing the improving value of our pipeline. I would mostly highlight two upcoming Phase 3 results for this year that will be significant, tolebrutinib in PPMS and itepekimab in COPD, with the aim of launching next year, depending on the data.

    我想以我對 2025 年及明年的常規新聞流幻燈片作為結束。我們計劃在多個司法管轄區進行 11 項第 3 階段讀數、15 項監管提交和 14 項監管決策,從而不斷提升我們管道的不斷提升的價值。我主要想強調的是今年即將公佈的兩項具有重要意義的 3 期臨床試驗結果,即治療 PPMS 的托布替尼和治療 COPD 的伊替單抗,預計明年推出,具體取決於數據。

  • Next year, I'm looking forward to seeing the results of the Phase 3 data for riliprubart, our subcutaneous C1S pathway inhibitor. Our objective is to improve the journey of CIDP patients, with riliprubart as a potential treatment option for those who are inadequately responding over a failed standard of care therapies. We very much look forward to updating you on this progress.

    明年,我期待看到我們的皮下 C1S 路徑抑制劑 riliprubart 的 3 期數據結果。我們的目標是改善 CIDP 患者的治療歷程,將 riliprubart 作為對失敗的標準治療療法反應不足的患者的潛在治療選擇。我們非常期待向您通報這項進展。

  • As I frequently emphasize, we adopt a humble stance in the face of disease, acknowledging that not all of our efforts will be successful. It is nevertheless anticipated the synergy of skilled science-focused teams, in conjunction with our augmented exposure to cutting-edge digital technologies, will facilitate the advancement of this unique pipeline within our core therapeutic areas, with the objective of benefiting patients. I would like to thank all of my brilliant R&D team members and colleagues across the company for the positive progress made this year. We're chasing the miracles of science to improve people's lives.

    正如我經常強調的那樣,我們在疾病面前採取謙遜的姿態,承認並非所有的努力都會成功。儘管如此,我們預計,熟練的、以科學為中心的團隊的協同作用,加上我們對尖端數位技術的不斷增強,將促進我們核心治療領域內這一獨特管道的進步,以造福患者為目標。我要感謝所有優秀的研發團隊成員和公司全體同事,感謝他們今年的正面進展。我們追求科學奇蹟來改善人們的生活。

  • With this, I hand back to Paul for Q&A.

    說完這些,我將問題交還給保羅回答。

  • Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

    Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Okay, thank you. We'll now open the call to questions. (Event Instructions)

    好的,謝謝。我們現在開始提問。(活動須知)

  • Now, we'll take the first question. Please go ahead.

    現在我們來回答第一個問題。請繼續。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Emily Field, Barclays.

    巴克萊銀行的艾米麗·菲爾德。

  • Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

    Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Okay, should we take the next question? Try and come back to Emily if we can.

    好的,我們可以回答下一個問題嗎?如果可以的話,試著回到艾蜜莉身邊。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Richard Vosser, JPMorgan.

    摩根大通的理查‧沃瑟。

  • Houman Ashrafian - Executive Vice President, Head of Research and Development, Member of the Executive Committee

    Houman Ashrafian - Executive Vice President, Head of Research and Development, Member of the Executive Committee

  • This is going to be a quick afternoon.

    這將是一個短暫的下午。

  • Richard Vosser - Analyst

    Richard Vosser - Analyst

  • It certainly is. I'll be very quick as well. I think I've got it to work, hopefully. So a couple of questions, please.

    確實如此。我也會很快的。我希望它能發揮作用。請問我有幾個問題。

  • Firstly, maybe one just on the amlitelimab asthma data. Obviously, efficacy in these type 2 low patients, just thinking more deeply, how you think that efficacy compares to Dupi and really how you think that will read to the efficacy in AD relative to Dupixent from what you can see.

    首先,也許只是關於 amlitelimab 氣喘數據。顯然,對於這些 2 型低度患者的療效,只需更深入地思考,您認為其療效與 Dupi 相比如何,以及從您所看到的情況來看,您認為其相對於 Dupixent 在 AD 中的療效如何。

  • And then a second question just on this novel combination, which I think I heard was with incretins and you're all anti-TNF. Just thinking through that combination, should we be thinking about that in HS? Obviously, there's a disease overlap with obesity there. Struggling to think beyond that in terms of the combined ability, so just thoughts on how we should think about that combination that you're thinking there. Thanks very much.

    然後第二個問題是關於這種新型組合的,我想我聽說它與腸促胰島素有關,而你們都是抗 TNF。只是透過思考這種組合,我們應該在 HS 中考慮這一點嗎?顯然,這種疾病與肥胖症有重疊。努力從綜合能力的角度去思考,所以只是思考我們應該如何思考你所思考的組合。非常感謝。

  • Houman Ashrafian - Executive Vice President, Head of Research and Development, Member of the Executive Committee

    Houman Ashrafian - Executive Vice President, Head of Research and Development, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Thanks, Richard. Three little sneaky questions dropped in there and I'll address all three very quickly.

    謝謝,理查。有三個小小的隱密問題,我會很快回答它們。

  • Firstly, on amli in asthma, let me start by saying that, as we said at the top of this call, we remain hugely committed to Dupixent with our partner Regeneron. And we will continue driving that in pulmonology, both in asthma, in CRS with NP, et cetera, and of course, in (inaudible) So I absolutely would not take a comparison between amli and dupilumab.

    首先,關於氣喘的 amli,首先我要說的是,正如我們在這次電話會議開始時所說的那樣,我們仍然與我們的合作夥伴 Regeneron 一起大力致力於 Dupixent 的研究。我們將繼續在肺病學領域推動這一進程,包括氣喘、伴隨 NP 的 CRS 等,當然還有(聽不清楚)所以我絕對不會將 amli 和 dupilumab 進行比較。

  • Let me answer your question, though, promptly. We're very excited by the results we've seen with amli in asthma. We've been very clear and cautious that it missed its primary endpoint. But I have to say from where I'm sitting and when you see the data, I feel that in multiple subgroups, we have really very compelling data, which has driven our commitment to going straight to Phase 3 in subgroups with substantial medical need.

    不過,請容許我立即回答你的問題。我們對 amli 治療氣喘的療效感到非常興奮。我們非常清楚並且謹慎地認識到它錯過了其主要終點。但我必須說,從我所處的位置以及當您看到數據時,我覺得在多個亞組中,我們確實擁有非常令人信服的數據,這推動了我們致力於在具有大量醫療需求的亞組中直接進入第 3 階段。

  • You talked about the higher xenophil group and, indeed, the heterogenous inflammation group. And in those populations, amlitelimab has a distinct place for the treatment of patients, both because of the efficacy in those groups, but also its Q12 dosing. So I hope that answers your first question.

    您談到了更高的異種嗜性組,事實上,還有異質性發炎組。在這些人群中,amlitelimab 在患者治療中佔有獨特的地位,這不僅是因為其在這些群體中的療效,還因為其 Q12 劑量。我希望這能回答你的第一個問題。

  • The second question was related to balinatunfib and combination therapies. As I said very clearly, actually, we said this early on, there would be a small number of indications in which we would go with monotherapy. But we always plan to combine this in combination. Indeed, even in rheumatoid arthritis today, anti-TNFs are combined with methotrexate, which is a synthetic de-mask.

    第二個問題與 balinatunfib 和聯合療法有關。正如我非常清楚地說的那樣,實際上,我們很早就說過,只有少數適應症需要我們採用單一療法。但我們始終計劃將其結合。事實上,即使在當今的類風濕性關節炎中,抗 TNF 藥物也與甲氨蝶呤(一種合成的去膜劑)相結合。

  • So our strategy is indeed to go into combination therapies, including fixed dose combinations. We are in discussions with multiple big pharma and biotech companies for the appropriate rational conversations and, of course, with our internal pipeline.

    因此,我們的策略確實是聯合療法,包括固定劑量組合。我們正在與多家大型製藥和生技公司進行討論,以進行適當的理性對話,當然,也包括我們的內部管道。

  • And your direct question about incretins, actually, there is a substantial body of literature across multiple inflammatory disorders. And we could list them, but I won't do that here, where metabolic contributions to disease are extremely substantial. You'll appreciate that for the sake of disclosures, we won't go into these disorders now, but you'll also appreciate we're exploring multiple opportunities.

    至於您直接詢問的關於腸促胰島素的問題,實際上,針對多種發炎性疾病有大量的文獻資料。我們可以列出它們,但我不會在這裡這樣做,因為代謝對疾病的貢獻極其巨大。您會理解,為了揭露訊息,我們現在不會深入探討這些疾病,但您也會理解我們正在探索多種機會。

  • Richard Vosser - Analyst

    Richard Vosser - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

    Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Thank you, Houman. Thank you, Richard. Okay, next question, please.

    謝謝你,Houman。謝謝你,理查。好的,請問下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Luisa Hector, Berenberg.

    路易莎·赫克托(Luisa Hector),貝倫貝格(Berenberg)。

  • Luisa Hector - Analyst

    Luisa Hector - Analyst

  • Thank you. Thanks for the call. My question is still on amlitelimab and asthma, but maybe to go a little bit more broadly because you have other assets in development for asthma. So how do you see it, more broadly, a respiratory franchise developing within your pipeline, et cetera? And then perhaps I could just check on on Dupixent again, respiratory. So a little bit more color on that COPD launch reimbursement status of COPD and how we should think about that phasing through 2025. Thank you.

    謝謝。謝謝您的來電。我的問題仍然是關於 amlitelimab 和氣喘,但也許可以更廣泛一點,因為你們還有其他針對氣喘的資產正在開發中。那麼,從更廣泛的角度來看,您如何看待呼吸特許經營在您的管道內的發展等等?然後也許我可以再次檢查 Dupixent,呼吸系統。因此,請更詳細地介紹 COPD 的啟動報銷狀況,以及我們應該如何考慮在 2025 年之前分階段實施此政策。謝謝。

  • Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

    Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Thanks, Luisa. So I'll take the first part just to set up and then hand to you for the second, which was we've said all along that we want multiple different mechanisms addressing different parts of the patient journey. It's clear that biologic penetration, even after all these years, is still in the high-teens in asthma -- and of course, we'll get to COPD -- and so we need to have different offerings.

    謝謝,路易莎。因此,我將先介紹第一部分,然後再介紹第二部分,也就是我們一直在說的,我們希望有許多不同的機制來解決患者旅程的不同部分。顯然,即使經過這麼多年,生物製劑在氣喘方面的滲透率仍然只有百分之十幾——當然,我們還會談到慢性阻塞性肺病——因此我們需要提供不同的治療方案。

  • You mentioned the second, I think we showed data back in '23 at ATS on the pheno drop, which was radically different. And you can see us starting to shape up how the market could look with high efficacy approaches for those that needed more longer interval for those that want less needle burden. And then, of course, safety and other elements of efficacy. I think we're very well positioned, given the low penetration and the very different offerings for each patient. It's quite a novel approach that we've taken. We've done this in multiple diseases. I think it's going to play out quite successfully for us.

    您提到了第二點,我認為我們在 23 年的 ATS 上展示了有關表型下降的數據,這是完全不同的。您可以看到,我們開始透過高效方法塑造市場形象,以滿足那些需要更長間隔時間和希望減少針頭負擔的患者的需求。當然,還有安全性和其他功效要素。考慮到滲透率低以及為每位患者提供的服務差異很大,我認為我們處於非常有利的位置。這是我們採取的一種相當新穎的方法。我們已經對多種疾病進行了此項研究。我認為,這對我們來說將會相當成功。

  • Houman, anything to add on the second part of the question?

    Houman,對於問題的第二部分還有什麼要補充的嗎?

  • Houman Ashrafian - Executive Vice President, Head of Research and Development, Member of the Executive Committee

    Houman Ashrafian - Executive Vice President, Head of Research and Development, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Yeah, I'm going to hand over to Brian for the launch piece. Just very clearly, I agree with what Paul said. Remember, in lunsekimig, we have multiple respiratory populations, including high-risk asthma and patients with severe asthma. And we're really, really, Luisa, as you know, with a combination of credentialed targets, CRSwNP IL-13, shooting for breaking the efficacy ceiling.

    是的,我將把發布會交給 Brian。非常清楚,我同意保羅的說法。請記住,在 lunsekimig 中,我們有多位呼吸系統疾病患者,包括高風險氣喘患者和重度氣喘患者。而且我們真的,真的,路易莎,正如你所知,透過結合多種認證目標,CRSwNP IL-13,努力突破療效上限。

  • Pretty straightforward. The TPP for that is really very straightforward. I won't repeat the other things that Paul said, because I think our commitment from the very beginning was to take franchise areas, to take whole areas, and to provide patients in those areas with the very best treatment we could do, and to really begin to tease out substrata. And that's what we've done.

    非常簡單。TPP 的這項特點確實非常簡單。我不會重複保羅所說的其他事情,因為我認為我們從一開始的承諾就是佔領特許經營區域、佔領整個區域,並為這些區域的患者提供我們所能提供的最好的治療,並真正開始梳理出底層。我們也確實這麼做了。

  • Brian?

    布賴恩?

  • Brian Foard - Head of the Specialty Medicine Entity, Member of the Executive Committee

    Brian Foard - Head of the Specialty Medicine Entity, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Thank you so much for the question. And I love that we keep getting asked the questions on COPD. This is a really important disease state. It's very heterogeneous, like asthma. As a matter of fact, we're just articulating and we've got a couple of shots on goal.

    非常感謝您的提問。我很高興我們不斷被問到有關 COPD 的問題。這是一種非常重要的疾病狀態。它非常多樣化,就像氣喘一樣。事實上,我們只是在表達,我們已經有幾次射門的機會了。

  • I think you're from a COPD standpoint. But let me first start off with Dupixent. We anticipated always that we'd continue to gain momentum. We launched it at the end of last year. We saw really good progress at the end of last year. But it's gaining momentum, even as we started into this year when we still see the inflection point will be in 2025.

    我認為您是從 COPD 的角度出發的。但我首先要從 Dupixent 開始。我們始終預期我們會繼續獲得動力。我們在去年年底推出了它。我們在去年年底看到了非常好的進展。但它正在獲得發展勢頭,即使從今年開始,我們仍然認為拐點將在 2025 年。

  • Actually, we've seen early data suggest that we have a record-setting pace so far as it relates to Medicare and Medicaid coverage -- or Medicare and commercial coverage, about 90% Medicare coverage. And at this point, 88% commercial lives are covered. So that's really record setting for the indications that we've had.

    實際上,我們已經看到早期數據表明,就醫療保險和醫療補助覆蓋範圍而言,我們的速度創下了紀錄——或者醫療保險和商業覆蓋範圍,醫療保險覆蓋率約為 90%。目前,88%的商業生活都已被覆蓋。所以,這確實是我們所得到的跡像中創下的最高紀錄。

  • Additionally, as you look at indicator initiations, we're seeing it's our most rapid respiratory initiation launch so far. Again, but these are initiations they need to turn into NVRXs and need to turn into TRXs. And that's what we're out there doing now. So we feel that this is continuing to strengthen our position. The pulmonologist office is having -- it's having a nice play as well with asthma.

    此外,當您查看指示器啟動時,我們發現這是迄今為止最快的呼吸啟動。再次,但這些是啟動,它們需要轉變為 NVRX,並且需要轉變為 TRX。這就是我們現在正在做的事情。因此我們認為這將進一步加強我們的地位。肺科醫師辦公室在治療氣喘方面也表現出色。

  • But again, as we said before, Luisa, we expect 2025 to be the inflection year for COPD and for it to continue to be a part of many indications. Now, our seventh indication recently approved in CSU, but a part of the overall growth that we anticipate will drive double-digit CAGR growth from 23% to 30%, generating roughly EUR20 billion, EUR22 billion or so by 2030 timeframe.

    但是,正如我們之前所說,路易莎,我們預計 2025 年將成為 COPD 的轉折年,並且它將繼續成為許多適應症的一部分。現在,我們的第七種適應症最近在 CSU 中獲得批准,但我們預計整體成長的一部分將推動兩位數的複合年增長率從 23% 增長到 30%,到 2030 年將產生約 200 億歐元、220 億歐元左右的收入。

  • Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

    Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Thank you. Next question.

    謝謝。下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Yes, let's try again. Emily Field, please.

    是的,我們再試一次。請叫我艾米莉·菲爾德。

  • Emily Field - Analyst

    Emily Field - Analyst

  • Hi. Thanks, and sorry for the mix up before. Anyways, okay. So on Beyfortus, I was just wondering if you could help us kind of understand -- quantify the phasing impact. Is there any incentivizing for stocking out of a potential competitor launch? And then, in the slides, you also mentioned that you're focusing on increasing the next season immunization rate, particularly in the US. What was the penetration of Beyfortus over last season and how far do you see yourselves being able to take that up this year?

    你好。謝謝,對於先前的混淆,深感抱歉。無論如何,好的。因此,關於 Beyfortus,我只是想知道您是否可以幫助我們理解 - 量化分階段的影響。是否有任何激勵措施來促使潛在競爭對手推出新品?然後,在幻燈片中,您還提到您正致力於提高下一季的免疫接種率,特別是在美國。上個賽季 Beyfortus 的滲透率如何?您認為今年你們能達到什麼程度?

  • And then a question on brivekimig. I was just wondering if you could give us a little more color on the synergistic component of the MOA, given that we know the TNFs alone look inferior to the IL-17s, and then the OX40 ligand, your own monotherapy, didn't succeed. So I was just sort of curious why you think that the combination there will look better than each on its own. Thank you.

    然後是關於 brivekimig 的一個問題。我只是想知道您是否可以給我們更多地介紹 MOA 的協同作用成分,因為我們知道單獨的 TNF 看起來不如 IL-17,而 OX40 配體(您自己的單一療法)沒有成功。所以我只是有點好奇,為什麼你認為那裡的組合看起來比單獨的更好。謝謝。

  • Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

    Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Okay. Thomas?

    好的。托馬斯?

  • Thomas Triomphe - Executive Vice President - Vaccines, Member of the Executive Committee

    Thomas Triomphe - Executive Vice President - Vaccines, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Yes. Thank you, Emily. Happy to provide a bit of color there. So just to get started, I want to reassure you or anybody that, no, there is no incentive. There was no incentives during the season to stock up Beyfortus ahead of any competitor entry. Absolutely not.

    是的。謝謝你,艾米麗。很高興能為這裡帶來一些色彩。因此,首先,我想向你或任何人保證,沒有任何激勵措施。在賽季期間,沒有任何激勵措施來讓參賽者在任何競爭對手進入之前儲備 Beyfortus。絕對不是。

  • Now, the color is more specifically indeed, as you pointed out, on the US market. I'll give you a couple of numbers I think that can help. If you look at the overall RSV prevention vaccination coverage rate during the 2024-2025 season, so let's say the month of October to February, March, roughly in the US, there's a vaccination coverage rate which is around 55% to 60%, all product included. Of course, the lion's share of that was Beyfortus, which is great.

    現在,正如您所指出的,在美國市場上,顏色確實更加具體。我會給你一些我認為有幫助的數字。如果你看一下 2024-2025 年期間的整體 RSV 預防疫苗接種覆蓋率,那麼假設大約在美國 10 月到 2 月、3 月,疫苗接種覆蓋率約為 55% 到 60%,包括所有產品。當然,其中最大的份額是 Beyfortus,這很棒。

  • And therefore, it means that we have more to go because above 60%, you know that we expect big VCR to be close to the traditional vaccination coverage rate for infants. So there's room to go, and that's why we're saying that we have a job to do. We need to work on increasing the immunization rate in 2025 and 2026 to go where it needs to be because all babies need to be protected against RSV.

    因此,這意味著我們還有很長的路要走,因為超過 60% 之後,我們預計大 VCR 將接近嬰兒的傳統疫苗接種覆蓋率。所以還有前進的空間,這就是為什麼我們說我們有工作要做。我們需要努力提高 2025 年和 2026 年的免疫接種率,以達到所需的水平,因為所有嬰兒都需要接種 RSV 疫苗。

  • And to give you a bit of color exactly on what we're going to do, I think the qualitative part is important. When we look at the immunization over the past winter, what we saw is that the health community gathered and did a great job at doing preventive measures early on. So let's say in the month of October, November, where the right interventions were in place, it got a little bit fading out when you look at the month of January, February, and March.

    為了讓您清楚地了解我們將要做的事情,我認為定性部分很重要。當我們回顧過去冬天的免疫接種情況時,我們看到衛生界團結一致,在早期採取了出色的預防措施。假設在十月、十一月採取了正確的干預措施,那麼在一月、二月和三月,這種影響就會稍微減弱。

  • And I think that shows that people have not yet fully understood that it's a full season protection, that babies are at risk when they are born in January, February and March. And that's the job we're going to do this season and the next season. So that's why we're focusing on these. Room to grow there.

    我認為這表明人們還沒有完全認識到這是一種全季節的保護,嬰兒在一月、二月和三月出生時就面臨風險。這就是我們本賽季和下個賽季要做的工作。這就是我們關注這些的原因。那裡有成長的空間。

  • As for Beyfortus for the full year, we've told you last year that our intention is to grow 2025 sales of Beyfortus versus 2024. We're still on that trajectory and we're focusing on protecting as many babies as possible moving forward.

    至於 Beyfortus 的全年銷售量,我們去年就告訴大家,我們的目標是讓 2025 年 Beyfortus 的銷售量比 2024 年有所成長。我們仍在沿著這條軌跡前進,並致力於保護盡可能多的嬰兒。

  • Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

    Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Okay, thank you. Houman, do you want to make a comment on brivekimig?

    好的,謝謝。Houman,你想對 brivekimig 發表一下評論嗎?

  • Houman Ashrafian - Executive Vice President, Head of Research and Development, Member of the Executive Committee

    Houman Ashrafian - Executive Vice President, Head of Research and Development, Member of the Executive Committee

  • So Emily, thank you for the question on brivekimig. I'll structure the answer briefly in three parts.

    所以 Emily,謝謝你關於 brivekimig 的問題。我將把答案簡要地分為三個部分。

  • One is, this is a demonstration of our continuing commitment to internal research at Sanofi. I'm reflective of the comments people have historically made about research and development at Sanofi. And it's a source of particular pride for me to bring in innovation from the outside, but especially do work internally. And these bispecifics are beginning to demonstrate the muscle we have in research as well as development at Sanofi.

    一是,這體現了我們對賽諾菲內部研究的持續承諾。我反思了人們過去對賽諾菲研發所做的評論。對我來說,從外部引進創新,尤其是在內部開展工作,是一件特別自豪的事。這些雙特異性抗體開始展現出賽諾菲在研究和發展上的實力。

  • Point two is, you asked the question, why would there be a combination value in those two targets? Remember, of course, the OX40 ligand is a member of the TNF superfamily, as is TNF. We specifically designed the exploratory studies to be able to see whether OX40 ligand alone, or in combination with TNF, would make a difference, posing the question that you asked in exactly the same way.

    第二點是,你問的問題是,為什麼這兩個目標會有一個組合值?當然,請記住,OX40 配體是 TNF 超家族的成員,TNF 也是如此。我們專門設計了探索性研究,以便能夠了解 OX40 配體單獨使用或與 TNF 結合使用是否會產生影響,並以完全相同的方式提出您所提出的問題。

  • And I'm really delighted to be able to provide, albeit early, with all the caveats that go with early studies and patients, particularly biologic naive patients, that that combination works. The reason it probably works is that TNF itself induces OX40 ligand on cells. OX40 ligand licenses multiple cells, particularly T cells by dendritic cells. So I really do feel that the double punch has a precedented biology for synergy. I've got to say, the fact that it really is competitive with best-in-class molecules out there for HS gives me great aspiration as we move forward with these studies.

    我很高興能夠提供這種組合的有效性,儘管還為時過早,但考慮到早期研究和患者(尤其是未接受過生物製劑治療的患者)的所有註意事項。它可能起作用的原因是 TNF 本身會誘導細胞上的 OX40 配體。OX40配體授權多種細胞,特別是樹突狀細胞的T細胞。所以我確實覺得雙重打擊具有先例的生物學協同作用。我必須說,它確實能夠與 HS 領域中最好的分子相媲美,這一事實讓我在繼續進行這些研究時充滿希望。

  • Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

    Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Maybe I could add, I mean, I think Houman touched on it in terms of this cool work we're doing with bispecifics and things. Let's not forget, I mentioned ATS earlier from '23. IL-13 and TSLP pheno drop was in excess of the individual monocomponents.

    也許我可以補充一點,我的意思是,我認為 Houman 在我們利用雙特異性抗體和其他東西進行的這項很酷的工作方面提到了這一點。別忘了,我早在 23 年就提過 ATS。IL-13 和 TSLP 表型下降超過了單一單組分。

  • Let's also remember, I think, and Brian, you correct me if I'm wrong, IL-13 didn't work in asthma on its own. So it's a red herring to think that because you get good or mixed data on one, you don't get a synergistic effect. And there is very definitely something in targeting two pathways that one plus one equals three. It's the next sort of exploratory battleground for us. I think we're excited about what we've seen.

    我想,我們還要記住,布萊恩,如果我錯了,請糾正我,IL-13 本身對氣喘不起作用。因此,如果你認為因為你獲得了某個方面的良好或混合數據,就不會獲得協同效應,那就太荒謬了。並且,同時瞄準兩條路徑,絕對可以產生「一加一等於三」的效果。這是我們下一個探索的戰場。我想我們對所見所聞感到興奮。

  • Next question, please.

    請回答下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Seamus Fernandez, Guggenheim.

    謝默斯·費爾南德斯,古根漢美術館。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Hi. This is Colleen on for Seamus. Thanks for taking our question. Is there anything you can share to help us get a sense of your level of tariff exposure to transfer pricing and on Dupixent? And any strategy and steps you're considering that may limit this exposure? Thanks.

    你好。這是 Colleen 代替 Seamus 演的。感謝您回答我們的問題。您能分享一些資訊來幫助我們了解您在轉讓定價和 Dupixent 上的關稅風險等級嗎?您正在考慮採取什麼策略和措施來限制這種風險?謝謝。

  • Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

    Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Okay, thank you very much. François, over to you.

    好的,非常感謝。弗朗索瓦,交給你了。

  • Francois-Xavier Roger - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Executive Committee

    Francois-Xavier Roger - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Yes. At this stage, we have no specifics to share regarding US tariffs. That said, we have run through all scenarios and we will communicate any development, if need be, when the time is right.

    是的。目前,我們還沒有關於美國關稅的具體資訊可以分享。也就是說,我們已經考慮過所有情況,如果需要,我們會在適當的時候通報任何進展。

  • I would really like to help you, but it's difficult to comment on the occurrence of possible future events that are still unknown or speculative at this stage. So there is no certainty beyond what has been announced and has been announced so far has been fully included in our confirmed guidance for the full year 2025.

    我真的很想幫助你,但目前很難對未來可能發生的事件發表評論,因為這些事件目前仍是未知或推測的。因此,除了已經宣布的內容之外,沒有其他確定性,迄今為止宣布的內容已完全納入我們對 2025 年全年的確認指導中。

  • But not to go beyond that would be a little bit complicated because we don't know which country would they apply to, which products would be impacted, which rate would be applied, when would it start. So it's extremely difficult for us to comment on a certain number of scenarios. But just be aware of the fact that we are ready and we are fully, if anything else happens, and we are fully factored whatever has been officially confirmed and announced so far.

    但如果超出這個範圍就會有點複雜,因為我們不知道它們適用於哪個國家、哪些產品會受到影響、適用哪種稅率、何時開始。因此,我們很難對某些場景發表評論。但請注意,我們已經做好了準備,如果發生任何其他事情,我們已經充分考慮了迄今為止官方確認和宣布的一切。

  • Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

    Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Thank you very much. Next question, please.

    非常感謝。請回答下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ben Jackson, Jefferies.

    本·傑克遜,傑富瑞。

  • Ben Jackson - Analyst

    Ben Jackson - Analyst

  • Hi. Thank you. Just two quick ones for me today.

    你好。謝謝。今天我只想簡單說兩句話。

  • First, just a little bit more on the OX40L TNF approach. With the results that you've seen in HS, does this bridge any kind of confidence that there are additional indications that this combination could be useful for? And does that change the relative positioning that you're thinking about with regards to the broader portfolio? Obviously, we've just mentioned the OX40L standalone there and potentially seeing a synergistic effect. But just has this changed how you view any other assets in your portfolio?

    首先,稍微介紹一下 OX40L TNF 方法。透過您在 HS 中看到的結果,是否可以確信還有其他跡象表明這種組合可能有用?這是否會改變您對更廣泛投資組合的相對定位的考慮?顯然,我們剛剛提到了 OX40L 獨立版,並且可能看到協同效應。但這是否改變了您對投資組合中其他資產的看法?

  • And then secondly, just on the TNFR1 as well, with regards to the psoriasis readout, has the data that you've seen changed any expectations for the rheumatoid arthritis readout coming up? And then with regards to the combo strategy, I appreciate that you've said that the monotherapy was only a small part of the actual opportunity that you were seeing in the first place. But perhaps could you provide a little bit more color around that and what you see the biggest potential there is for? Thank you.

    其次,就 TNFR1 而言,關於牛皮癬讀數,您所看到的數據是否改變了即將出現的類風濕性關節炎讀數的任何預期?然後關於組合策略,我很欣賞您所說的單一療法只是您最初看到的實際機會的一小部分。但也許您能對此提供更多細節,以及您認為最大的潛力是什麼?謝謝。

  • Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

    Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Okay. Thanks, Ben. Houman?

    好的。謝謝,本。豪曼?

  • Houman Ashrafian - Executive Vice President, Head of Research and Development, Member of the Executive Committee

    Houman Ashrafian - Executive Vice President, Head of Research and Development, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Let me start with brivekimig. You're entirely right that the combination of OX40 ligand and TNF is super interesting. What I won't talk about today is the molecular data we got out of those studies, that the molecular data from those studies give us a number of increased leads in what we do.

    讓我從 brivekimig 開始。您完全正確,OX40 配體和 TNF 的組合非常有趣。我今天不想談論的是我們從這些研究中得到的分子數據,這些研究中的分子數據為我們的工作提供了許多線索。

  • I think it's an unspoken part of being an emerging immunology powerhouse that we have enough internal network strength that we observe from human experiments that we do. And it guides us as to where we can drive these molecules through life cycle management. Short answer to your question is, yes, asymmetric contrarian insights emerge from our own data allow us to develop further as an immunology powerhouse.

    我認為,作為新興免疫學強國,我們擁有足夠的內部網路強度,這是我們從人體實驗中觀察到的,這是不言而喻的。它指導我們如何透過生命週期管理來驅動這些分子。對你的問題的簡短回答是,是的,從我們自己的數據中出現的不對稱反向見解使我們能夠進一步發展成為免疫學強國。

  • And then to your two direct questions on TNF small molecule, TNFR1 small molecule signaling inhibitor, the answer to your question is we always knew that psoriasis was a pathfinder indication. What I mean by that is it allowed us to identify the differentiated safety profile tick. It allowed us to establish dosing very straightforwardly, tick. And it allowed us to really understand where we would go in combination therapy.

    然後針對您關於 TNF 小分子、TNFR1 小分子訊號抑制劑的兩個直接問題,您的問題的答案是我們一直都知道牛皮癬是一種探路者適應症。我的意思是,它使我們能夠識別差異化的安全概況。它使我們能夠非常直接地確定劑量,勾選。它讓我們真正了解了聯合治療的發展方向。

  • There are a number of disorders, you'll appreciate, disorders like RA and ankylosing spondylitis that are very TNF responsive. And we may well end up there in monotherapy. And then there are a variety of conditions that naturally lend themselves to combination therapy. I won't disclose those now, but the biology of those is well-precedented.

    您會發現,有許多疾病對 TNF 非常敏感,例如 RA 和僵直性脊椎炎。我們最終可能會採用單一療法。有多種情況自然適合採用聯合療法。我現在不會透露這些,但這些的生物學特性已經有先例了。

  • Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

    Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Yeah. Thanks, Houman. I mean, it's exciting, actually, in terms of the opportunities -- whitespace for us, it really was HS. So I think we're very interested to see what the one plus one equals three is.

    是的。謝謝,Houman。我的意思是,實際上,就機會而言,這令人興奮——對我們來說,空白確實是 HS。所以我認為我們非常有興趣知道一加一等於三是多少。

  • I personally haven't been involved with TNF for most of my career. The safety piece in the psoriasis study was the piece we were looking out for first, followed by efficacy. And so we said that was never our target. But the combinations with TNF as backbone, it's interesting the number of conversations we're having externally. There's a great level of interest in raising the efficacy of other adjacent orals to make sure that we can break new efficacy standards for different diseases.

    我個人在職業生涯的大部分時間都沒有參與過 TNF。在牛皮癬研究中,我們首先關注的是安全性,其次才是療效。所以我們說這從來就不是我們的目標。但以 TNF 為骨幹的組合,我們在外部進行的對話數量很有趣。人們對提高其他鄰近口服藥物的療效有著濃厚的興趣,以確保我們能夠為不同的疾病打破新的療效標準​​。

  • And that was sort of always the goal. And that's now playing out a little bit like that. So of course, lots of work to do to get there. But I think we're feeling pretty positive.

    這始終是我們的目標。現在事情有點像這樣。當然,要實現這一目標還有很多工作要做。但我認為我們感覺非常積極。

  • Okay. Next question, please.

    好的。請回答下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Peter Verdult, BNP Exane.

    法國巴黎銀行審查部門的 Peter Verdult。

  • Peter Verdult - Analyst

    Peter Verdult - Analyst

  • Hi there. How are you doing? It's Pete here from BNP Exane. Just two questions. I'm surprised this one hasn't been asked yet already, Paul. The letter you and Vas penned in the FT does make valid and fair points. But we know governments have big commitments to defense spending increases and not an unlimited budget. So the simple question for me is, have you had any recent interactions with European politicians that give you hope? Or should we remain cynical about their appetite to better reward innovation in Europe?

    你好呀。你好嗎?我是法國巴黎銀行 Exane 的 Pete。僅兩個問題。保羅,我很驚訝這個問題還沒有人問過。您和 Vas 在《金融時報》上發表的信確實提出了有效且公正的觀點。但我們知道,各國政府對增加國防開支有著很大的承諾,而不是無限的預算。所以對我來說,一個簡單的問題是,您最近與歐洲政界人士的互動是否為您帶來了希望?或者我們應該對他們更好地獎勵歐洲創新的意願保持懷疑態度?

  • And then, Houman, sorry, just to sort of labor the point. I know you can't talk about the data, but HS is a big focus for everyone. You know why. So when you are expressing excitement for brivekimig, when we finally see that Phase 2 data, we're all going to do cross-trial comparisons to the IL-17. So I just want to be clear. Are you saying that you feel the data is competitive to the data sets we've seen from the IL-17As and ANFs? Thank you.

    然後,Houman,抱歉,我只是想強調這一點。我知道你不能談論數據,但 HS 是每個人關注的重點。你知道為什麼。因此,當您對 brivekimig 表示興奮時,當我們最終看到第 2 階段數據時,我們都將對 IL-17 進行交叉試驗比較。所以我只是想說清楚。您是說您認為這些數據與我們從 IL-17A 和 ANF 中看到的數據集具有競爭力嗎?謝謝。

  • Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

    Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Why don't you go first, Houman, and I'll mention the letter to the FT.

    霍曼,你先走吧,我會向英國《金融時報》提及這封信。

  • Houman Ashrafian - Executive Vice President, Head of Research and Development, Member of the Executive Committee

    Houman Ashrafian - Executive Vice President, Head of Research and Development, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Yeah. So you may know I was at a cameo role, maybe a bit more than a cameo role, in the early days of bimzelic when I was at UCB and have an intimate knowledge of that molecule in multiple indications. Suffice it to say that brivekimig, in my mind, albeit early, with all the caveats that you make about small, early exploratory studies, is certainly competitive in relation to bimzelic. And I'm excited to see how it goes forward in Phase 2, Phase 2b and 3 in due course.

    是的。所以你可能知道,在 bimzelic 的早期,當我在 UCB 時,我曾擔任過一個客串角色,也許不僅僅是客串角色,並且對該分子在多種適應症中的應用有著深入的了解。在我看來,儘管 brivekimig 還處於早期階段,並且考慮到您對小型早期探索性研究提出的所有警告,但它相對於 bimzelic 來說肯定具有競爭力。我很高興看到它在第 2 階段、第 2b 階段和第 3 階段的進展。

  • Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

    Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Okay, thank you. As to the letter, we've been, I think, very poised, given China, US, Europe and the state of things in terms of expectations. I think for a long time, even before the conversations over the last weeks with the change in administration in the US, there's been a long time campaign to really help Europe understand the value of medicines and investing in them and the quality of jobs and the impact.

    好的,謝謝。至於這封信,考慮到中國、美國、歐洲以及預期方面的現狀,我認為我們已經非常鎮定了。我認為,長期以來,甚至在過去幾週美國政府更迭的對話之前,就已經開展了一場長期運動,真正幫助歐洲了解藥品的價值和對藥品的投資以及就業品質和影響。

  • Very few people fully appreciate that the number one exporter from the EU is, in fact, pharmaceuticals, EUR300 billion plus. They've been public about that. That's been well documented. And I think we have had conversations with the presidency of the EU over the last weeks just to try and remind everybody of the role that Europe can play in the global pharmaceutical industry, and this is a good moment to express some commitments.

    很少有人充分認識到,歐盟最大的出口產品實際上是藥品,出口額超過3000億歐元。他們已經公開此事。這已有詳細記載。我認為,過去幾週我們與歐盟主席國進行了對話,只是為了試圖提醒大家歐洲在全球製藥業可以發揮的作用,這是一個表達一些承諾的好時機。

  • Of course, these things have to be said. They don't always materialize in changes instances. But I think it has to be no regrets from us to try and make sure people understand what we bring to patients while we do it, what it means for countries and for Europe in particular, and be very composed with where Europe sits between the US and China. It's delicate, as you would imagine.

    當然,這些話還是要說的。它們並不總是在變化實例中實現。但我認為,我們應該努力讓人們了解我們在做這件事時能為病人帶來什麼,這對各國,尤其是對歐洲意味著什麼,並且對歐洲處於美國和中國之間的位置保持冷靜,這對我們來說不應該感到後悔。正如您所想像的,它非常精緻。

  • Okay, next question.

    好的,下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jo Walton, UBS.

    瑞銀的喬沃爾頓。

  • Jo Walton - Analyst

    Jo Walton - Analyst

  • Thank you. I've got one, I guess, slightly philosophical question about R&D and then one about situation in the US. So the philosophical one is, we've seen a couple of what looked like failed results, or at least not particularly good results, which have been blamed on very small sizes of studies. So we can't get to increase our probabilities of success until perhaps the studies are bigger.

    謝謝。我想,我有一個關於研發的稍微有點哲學的問題,然後還有一個關於美國的情況的問題。因此,從哲學角度來看,我們已經看到了一些看似失敗的結果,或至少不是特別好的結果,這被歸咎於研究規模太小。因此,除非研究規模更大,否則我們無法提高成功的機率。

  • Are there any other of your Phase 2 studies that are coming out that we may also find just perhaps a little bit too small to give us the answer that we want? And I'm thinking, the OX40 ligand, the data wasn't statistically significant, but you're very convinced it's going to be competitive with Bimzelx, for example, in HS, but we can't see that data yet. And the oral TNF, that also seems to be too small a study to be really very clear about it. Could you perhaps tell us whether you think there is still a decent chance of an oral-only indication for something like RA or whether this is really going to always now be perceived as a combination product?

    你們正在進行的其他第 2 階段研究是否也發現規模太小,無法給出我們想要的答案?我認為,OX40 配體的數據並不具有統計意義,但您非常確信它將與 Bimzelx 競爭,例如在 HS 方面,但我們現在還看不到這些數據。對於口服 TNF,研究規模似乎太小,無法真正清楚了解其作用。您能否告訴我們,您是否認為對於 RA 等疾病,僅口服藥物仍有相當大的機會,或者這是否真的會一直被視為一種組合產品?

  • And my second question is just in the US. Paul, I'm asking you this as your role in pharma more than from a Sanofi perspective. But if you do get the opportunity to renegotiate the IRA and go from 9 to 13 years for everything, which everybody thinks is -- appears to be what Trump is encouraging Congress to do. Do you think there will be a significant pay away that you will have to give in exchange for that, because clearly the CBO would say, well, that's going to cost us much more money. So should we see that still as a net benefit for the industry? Many thanks.

    我的第二個問題與美國有關。保羅,我問這個問題更多的是從你在製藥業的角色而不是賽諾菲的角度。但如果你確實有機會重新談判愛爾蘭共和軍,將所有服刑期從 9 年延長至 13 年,每個人都認為這似乎是川普鼓勵國會做的事情。您是否認為需要付出巨額代價才能實現這一目標,因為國會預算辦公室 (CBO) 顯然會說,這將花費我們更多的錢。那麼我們是否仍應將此視為該產業的淨收益?非常感謝。

  • Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

    Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Okay. Thanks, Jo. One of the fastest to connect. Thank you. Houman?

    好的。謝謝,喬。連接速度最快的之一。謝謝。豪曼?

  • Houman Ashrafian - Executive Vice President, Head of Research and Development, Member of the Executive Committee

    Houman Ashrafian - Executive Vice President, Head of Research and Development, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Yeah. So Jo, thank you for the philosophical question. Let me be very direct. I've been very reflective about the comments we've received after disclosure of our results. In an effort to demonstrate an abundance of caution and an effort to be extremely statistically rigorous, I think we may have not conveyed the clarity of the message about the value and success of these trials. And I'm just going to say these very directly.

    是的。所以喬,謝謝你提出這個哲學問題。讓我直截了當地說。我對我們的結果公佈後收到的評論進行了深刻的反思。為了表現出足夠的謹慎和極其嚴謹的統計態度,我認為我們可能沒有清楚地傳達這些試驗的價值和成功性。我要非常直接地說這些。

  • And you will see the data, but with the amli asthma data, we've been very clear that we missed the primary endpoint. But I've been abundantly clear that there is no equivocation in my mind that this is a drug. It will go through Phase 3. And with a reasonable wind behind us, as with all Phase 3s, I have significant confidence that it'll be successful. So this isn't a function of a small trial. There are always, in new exploratory dose finding studies, a bit of statistical wobble. But my confidence in amli asthma is unequivocal.

    您會看到數據,但是透過 amli 氣喘數據,我們非常清楚我們錯過了主要終點。但我已經非常清楚,我心裡毫不懷疑這是一種藥物。它將進入第三階段。就像所有第三階段一樣,在順風的推動下,我非常有信心它會成功。所以這不是一次小規模試驗的結果。在新的探索性劑量研究中,總是會存在一些統計上的偏差。但我對氣喘的信心是毫不含糊的。

  • Secondly, in brivekimig, the study did not miss its primary endpoint. We went to some pains to craft a language about not missing its primary endpoint. Just to be super clear, the study's statistical approach was a Bayesian approach, which we didn't invent, actually. It's a Bayesian approach that is very similar to the first in human for Bimzelx published by Sophie Glatt as the first author and my old friend Steve Shaw as the final author. I was there when that study was delivered.

    其次,在 brivekimig 中,研究並沒有錯過其主要終點。我們煞費苦心地設計了一種不會錯過其主要終點的語言。需要明確的是,這項研究的統計方法是貝葉斯方法,實際上我們並沒有發明這種方法。這是一種貝葉斯方法,與 Sophie Glatt 作為第一作者、我的老朋友 Steve Shaw 作為最終作者發表的 Bimzelx 人類首例研究非常相似。當這項研究進行時我在場。

  • It's a very straightforward, and I won't explain it here, Bayesian study. The credibility intervals on that molecule did not pass the null point. I won't talk about the exact numbers, but the level of confidence by which we know this is better than placebo, albeit in a super early study, it's not just compelling. It's not highly compelling. It's exquisitely highly compelling. So we didn't miss the primary endpoint, but we've been really very diligent about not making claims that we might be criticized for later.

    這是一項非常簡單的貝葉斯研究,我不會在這裡解釋它。該分子的可信區間未通過零點。我不會談論確切的數字,但我們所知道的信心水平比安慰劑要好,儘管在一項非常早期的研究中,它不僅僅是令人信服的。這不太引人注目。它極其精美,引人注目。因此,我們並沒有錯過主要終點,但我們確實非常謹慎,沒有做出以後可能會受到批評的聲明。

  • And then the final question was on this small molecule TNFR1 signaling inhibitor. We have to be humble in the face of disease. We tried this molecule in a disease that isn't exquisitely anti-TNF responsive. We did it because you can judge (inaudible) on the skin very quickly. We needed to make sure the molecule was safe. We needed to make sure, as Paul has said, have a differentiated safety profile. But we also needed to make sure that we could judge the dose appropriately. And skin's a very good way to assess dose response.

    最後一個問題是關於這種小分子 TNFR1 訊號抑制劑。面對疾病,我們必須保持謙卑。我們嘗試用這種分子治療對抗 TNF 反應不靈敏的疾病。我們這樣做是因為你可以非常快速地根據皮膚做出判斷(聽不清楚)。我們需要確保分子是安全的。正如保羅所說,我們需要確保具有差異化的安全狀況。但我們還需要確保能夠適當地判斷劑量。皮膚是評估劑量反應的一種很好的方法。

  • I think that a disorder like rheumatoid arthritis that is more exquisitely TNF responsive may show a greater relative efficacy profile. But we said from the very beginning that as well as treatment in rheumatoid arthritis and other TNF responsive disorders, we would go into combination therapy. And I feel that the conversations with multiple large pharma partners who have significant provenance in this space is unequivocal, in my mind, validation of the value of this as a combination therapy for those kind of disorders. So philosophically, I think we're in good shape.

    我認為類風濕性關節炎這種對 TNF 反應更為敏感的疾病可能會表現出更高的相對療效。但我們從一開始就說過,除了治療類風濕性關節炎和其他 TNF 反應性疾病外,我們還會進行合併治療。我覺得,與在該領域具有重要地位的多家大型製藥合作夥伴的對話毫無疑問地證實了這種療法作為此類疾病的聯合療法的價值。所以從哲學角度來說,我認為我們處於良好狀態。

  • Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

    Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Yeah, thanks. It's a good question, because you mentioned could we have had bigger populations? I think you touched on it. I don't want to repeat myself or repeat what you said too much, but it was about safety, at least, and showing some efficacy in psoriasis before we go for RA.

    是的,謝謝。這是個好問題,因為你提到我們是否可以擁有更多的人口?我想你已經提到了這一點。我不想重複自己或重複您說過的話,但它至少與安全性有關,並且在我們治療 RA 之前顯示出對牛皮癬的一些療效。

  • I think back to the monotherapy question, it would be great to deliver a primary input in RA later in the year. But we'll wait and see, because the safety meant that we're combinable. And that was always the subtext. I thought we'd been quite explicit, but we will see. There was efficacy -- I've been in psoriasis a very long time. The efficacy bar has already been set. There was really no way to overachieve that. But our alternative was to do -- really start with the RA study, and that would have taken too long.

    我回想起單一療法的問題,如果能在今年稍後提供 RA 方面的主要意見就太好了。但我們會拭目以待,因為安全意味著我們可以合併。這始終是潛台詞。我認為我們已經說得非常明確了,但我們拭目以待。它有療效——我患牛皮癬已經很久了。功效標準已經設定。確實沒有辦法超越這個目標。但我們的替代方案是——真正從 RA 研究開始,而那將花費太長時間。

  • So I think perhaps we took some risk in terms of not delivering the primary input in psoriasis. But I think we sort of understood that. To be clear, we're pretty much at the end of the Phase 2s now in immunology. So in answer to the first part of your question, what else might we see or even miss on, I don't really think that's a question at this point.

    因此,我認為我們可能在未提供牛皮癬主要治療方面承擔了一定的風險。但我想我們大概明白了這一點。需要明確的是,我們現在基本上處於免疫學第二階段的末期。因此,回答你問題的第一部分,我們還會看到什麼,甚至錯過什麼,我真的不認為這是現在的問題。

  • As for the pharma piece, and I think Francois answered it very eloquently, there's really scant detail in terms of the numbers to be able to make any type of predictions. However, the executive order from last week was reasonably explicit in its intensity. It stepped back a little bit from most favored nation, stepped forward a little bit into what it means for patients and what it could mean for out of pocket, and importantly, brought in 340B and PBMs into that narrative.

    至於製藥部分,我認為弗朗索瓦非常有說服力地回答了這個問題,但從數字上看,細節確實不夠,無法做出任何類型的預測。然而,上週的行政命令的強度相當明確。它稍微放棄了最惠國待遇,稍微向前邁進了一步,了解了它對患者的意義以及對自付費用的意義,重要的是,將 340B 和 PBM 引入了這一敘述。

  • So I would imagine there'll be a pay fall, because clearly, if you're moving from 9 to 13, there would be. And we'd be delighted as an industry, because I think some small molecule innovation was lost in that mistake first time round. I think it looks to me, at least from the executive order and subsequent conversations, that it may be a shared responsibility in how we get there to do that. And I would hope that's the case. Again, with the administration, we take nothing for granted. We read the executive order, we reflect on it, and we'll see what it means in practical application.

    所以我可以想像薪水會下降,因為很明顯,如果你從 9 級升到 13 級,薪水就會下降。作為一個行業,我們會很高興,因為我認為一些小分子創新在第一次的錯誤中失去了。我認為,至少從行政命令和隨後的對話來看,如何實現這一目標可能是我們共同的責任。我希望情況確實如此。再次強調,對政府而言,我們不認為任何事情都是理所當然的。我們閱讀行政命令,對其進行反思,然後看看它在實際應用中意味著什麼。

  • Next question.

    下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Graham Parry, BofA.

    美國銀行的 Graham Parry。

  • Graham Parry - Analyst

    Graham Parry - Analyst

  • Hi. So just wanted to go back to the question on tariffs and just sort of push Francois-Xavier a little bit on that. So based on the administration comments, they have talked about 25% pharma tariffs. It's obviously going through Section 232. And there's a lot of discussion around whether that goes on to transfer prices into the US. So perhaps you could just help us by, if that's the most likely scenario, what sort of impact could that have on Sanofi, a 25% tariff on transfer prices into the US? How easily could you mitigate that, either with prices at one end or with just lowering transfer prices? And would that materially impact on Sanofi tax rate?

    你好。所以,我只是想回到關稅問題上,並就此向弗朗索瓦·澤維爾提出一些建議。因此,根據政府的評論,他們討論了 25% 的藥品關稅。顯然這是在執行第 232 條。關於這是否會將價格轉移到美國,有許多討論。所以也許您可以幫我們一下,如果這是最有可能的情況,那麼對賽諾菲徵收 25% 的美國轉讓價格關稅會產生什麼樣的影響?您能多容易緩解這種情況,是透過一端的價格還是只是降低轉移價格?這會對賽諾菲的稅率產生重大影響嗎?

  • And also perhaps on Dupixent, just help us understand where the US supply is coming from. Is it all Regeneron, Ireland and US plants? Or is there a Sanofi impact from Sanofi's European plants as well?

    也許 Dupixent 可以幫助我們了解美國的供應來自哪裡。都是 Regeneron、愛爾蘭和美國的工廠嗎?或者賽諾菲的歐洲工廠也會對賽諾菲產生影響嗎?

  • And then just following up on the brivekimig question around being competitive, when you say competitive with existing assets, do you mean it's sort of saying ballpark? Or are you looking for something here that is better than what's there already? Thank you.

    然後,繼續回答關於競爭力的 brivekimig 問題,當您說與現有資產競爭時,您的意思是大致如此嗎?還是您正在尋找比現有產品更好的產品?謝謝。

  • Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

    Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Okay, thank you. I mean, François, I'm sure you are able to.

    好的,謝謝。我的意思是,弗朗索瓦,我相信你能做到。

  • Francois-Xavier Roger - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Executive Committee

    Francois-Xavier Roger - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Executive Committee

  • No. I wish I could help you, Graham. But once again, I mean, I don't want to start discussing about various scenarios, because it's very speculative by nature.

    不。我希望我能幫助你,葛拉漢。但再次強調,我不想開始討論各種場景,因為這本質上是非常推測性的。

  • Once again, we are aware of some of the tariffs that are impacting, for example, trade between the US and China, for example, which we have factored in fully in our confirmed guidance for the full year 2025. After that, I don't want to enter into scenario. You are talking about 25%, because we could run scenarios at 5%, 10%, whatever it is, on which product does it apply to which country from which country. Very, very difficult to comment on what is once again, relatively speculative.

    我們再次意識到一些關稅正在影響美國和中國之間的貿易,例如,我們在 2025 年全年確認的指導中已經充分考慮了這些影響。此後,我不想再進入場景。您說的是 25%,因為我們可以運行 5%、10% 等各種場景,無論它適用於哪個國家的哪個產品。對於再次相對推測的事情,很難發表評論。

  • As of now, let me just help you a bit on our industrial footprint in the US. So regarding our presence and production footprint in the US, Sanofi has been, even prior to these discussions about tariff, actively increasing each share of manufacturing in the US and specifically biologics drug substance. So we continue to assess our future capacity requirements. And we are considering additional measures, potentially including investment in the US, aligning our industrial footprint to the needs of our pipeline and to our expected future growth. Just as we did, for example, our modulus investment in Europe and Asia, as we do as well, the modernization of our Frankfurt insulin site, we are always exploring opportunities to expand our industrial footprint, including in the US, to meet both our production needs and the needs of our patients.

    到目前為止,讓我稍微幫助您了解我們在美國的工業足跡。因此,就我們在美國的業務和生產足跡而言,甚至在關稅討論之前,賽諾菲就一直在積極增加在美國製造的份額,特別是生物製劑藥物的份額。因此,我們將繼續評估我們未來的產能需求。我們正在考慮採取其他措施,可能包括在美國進行投資,使我們的工業足跡與我們的管道需求以及我們預期的未來成長一致。例如,正如我們在歐洲和亞洲進行的模量投資以及我們對法蘭克福胰島素工廠的現代化改造一樣,我們一直在探索擴大工業足跡的機會,包括在美國,以滿足我們的生產需求和患者的需求。

  • Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

    Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Thank you. Houman?

    謝謝。豪曼?

  • Houman Ashrafian - Executive Vice President, Head of Research and Development, Member of the Executive Committee

    Houman Ashrafian - Executive Vice President, Head of Research and Development, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Thanks for the question, Graham. Let's just very briefly start with the caveats, which is, as I said to Jo, we exercise an abundance of caution, we don't over interpret our small studies, we convey the messages very clearly to the outside world, because I believe we've attained the level of credibility in R&D that we need to enviously protect.

    謝謝你的提問,格雷厄姆。讓我們先從注意事項開始,正如我對喬所說的那樣,我們非常謹慎,我們不會過度解讀我們的小型研究,我們向外界非常清楚地傳達信息,因為我相信我們已經達到了研發方面值得我們羨慕保護的可信度水平。

  • With that said, and the caveat that we used precedented statistical approach that in fact, bimekizumab used, I think that this molecule has a chance to fall somewhere between the two bookends that you provided. And we will find out when we run it in a broader group of patients. I still think, by the way, that A, it's competitive, and the unmet medical need, as we found with psoriasis, with this extremely severe skin disorder, will continue to progress and emerge. And that's what we're hearing from all the conferences at the KLR.

    話雖如此,需要注意的是,我們使用了先例統計方法,事實上,bimekizumab 也使用了這種方法,我認為這種分子有機會落在您提供的兩個書擋之間。當我們在更廣泛的患者群體中進行試驗時,我們會發現答案。順便說一句,我仍然認為,A,它具有競爭力,而且未滿足的醫療需求,正如我們在牛皮癬這種極其嚴重的皮膚病中發現的那樣,將繼續發展和出現。這就是我們在 KLR 所有會議上聽到的。

  • Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

    Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Okay, thank you. Next question, please.

    好的,謝謝。請回答下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Florent Cespedes, Bernstein.

    弗洛朗·塞斯佩德斯、伯恩斯坦。

  • Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

    Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Okay, we should perhaps move on.

    好的,我們也許應該繼續。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • James Quigley, Goldman Sachs.

    高盛的詹姆斯·奎格利。

  • Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

    Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Okay, we seem to have some type of delay. James, we got you.

    好的,我們似乎遇到了某種延遲。詹姆斯,我們抓到你了。

  • James Quigley - Analyst

    James Quigley - Analyst

  • Excellent. Thank you for taking my questions. I've got two, please.

    出色的。感謝您回答我的問題。我有兩個,謝謝。

  • So first, on amlitelimab and asthma, apologies if I may have missed that, but you've highlighted your confidence in moving to Phase 3, given the potential benefits demonstrated. But would you be able to share if you're planning to move into Phase 3 with the broad population, or a selected population, or multiple Phase 3s across different populations? It would be good to get your thoughts there. And how quickly do you expect to move here? And what could be the next steps since we're starting the Phase 3?

    首先,關於 amlitelimab 和氣喘,如果我可能忽略了這一點,請見諒,但您已經強調了對進入第 3 階段的信心,因為已經證明了潛在的​​益處。但是,如果您打算進入針對廣大人群、特定人群或不同人群的多個第 3 階段,您能否分享?能把你的想法傳達到這裡就太好了。您預計多久能搬到這裡?我們進入第三階段後,下一步該怎麼做?

  • And secondly, on the gross margin, the impact was pretty strong this quarter, with COGS declining slightly year on year versus the increase in revenue. So could you give us a little bit more color over the drivers of the gross margin? To what extent is this partly driven by some of the benefits from the new Dupixent manufacturing process? And how would you expect the gross margin to progress through the rest of '25 and into '26? Thank you.

    其次,就毛利率而言,本季的影響相當強勁,與營收的成長相比,銷貨成本較去年同期略有下降。那麼,您能否向我們詳細介紹毛利率的驅動因素呢?這在多大程度上是由新的 Dupixent 製造流程帶來的優勢所推動的?您預計 25 年剩餘時間和 26 年的毛利率將如何成長?謝謝。

  • Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

    Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Thank you, James. Houman?

    謝謝你,詹姆斯。豪曼?

  • Houman Ashrafian - Executive Vice President, Head of Research and Development, Member of the Executive Committee

    Houman Ashrafian - Executive Vice President, Head of Research and Development, Member of the Executive Committee

  • So thanks for the question, James. The first point is that it's important to say we've just got this data. We've recently received the data, are in deep consultations with significant KOLs in this space, who, by the way, thus far seem excited by the data. We'll continue that work to define the Phase 3 protocol fully. We need to make sure the community is with us. But the short answer to your question is that we have unequivocally identified in our Phase 2 population with high unmet medical need. And we will ensure that that population is overrepresented in any Phase 3 study we do.

    謝謝你的提問,詹姆斯。第一點很重要的一點是我們剛剛獲得了這些數據。我們最近收到了數據,正在與該領域的重要 KOL 進行深入磋商,順便說一句,到目前為止,他們似乎對這些數據感到興奮。我們將繼續努力,以完整定義第三階段協議。我們需要確保社區與我們同在。但對你的問題的簡短回答是,我們已經明確地確定了第二階段人群中存在大量未滿足的醫療需求。我們將確保在我們進行的任何第三階段研究中該族群都具有較高的代表性。

  • Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

    Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Maybe I'll add a little bit to that, because, of course, we have the benefit of seeing the data. We would never want to risk any publications or anything like that. But the population Houman's alluding to is a significant percentage of the biologic eligibles, just to be clear. So that's very, very important for us.

    也許我會對此補充一點,因為當然,我們可以從中受益,看到數據。我們絕不會冒任何出版或類似風險。但要先明確的是,霍曼所指的人口是生物學合格人口的很大一部分。所以這對我們來說非常非常重要。

  • And I think people need to realize that when we originally went to take on the OX40 ligand, it was targeted at AD originally. That was the original acquisition. Our base case in AD, not that anybody's asked, is that we meet the primary input. That is where we would like to be. And that's our base case.

    我認為人們需要意識到,當我們最初採用 OX40 配體時,它最初的目標是 AD。那是最初的收購。我們在 AD 中的基本情況(雖然沒有人問過)是,我們滿足主要輸入。這正是我們所希望的。這就是我們的基本情況。

  • Of course, the science will tell us whether we are right or not. Asthma, the data on asthma, is actually very encouraging in terms of safety and efficacy. So we'll wait and see. You turn these cards over, but I think we feel very positive.

    當然,科學會告訴我們是否正確。氣喘,關於氣喘的數據,在安全性和有效性方面實際上是非常令人鼓舞的。所以我們拭目以待。你把這些卡片翻過來,但我認為我們感覺非常積極。

  • Gross margin?

    毛利率?

  • Francois-Xavier Roger - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Executive Committee

    Francois-Xavier Roger - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Yes. Gross margin, James, if we look at it five years ago, we were significantly behind our peers in terms of gross margin, almost 5 percentage points. Today, we are almost at par with our peers in terms of average gross margin. You saw a significant increase in Q1, 2 percentage points from last year. About a third of it is linked to inventory revaluation that happens traditionally, up or down.

    是的。毛利率,詹姆斯,如果我們回顧五年前,我們的毛利率明顯落後於同行,幾乎落後了 5 個百分點。如今,我們的平均毛利率幾乎與同業持平。您會看到第一季出現了顯著的成長,比去年同期成長了 2 個百分點。其中約三分之一與傳統上發生的庫存重估有關,無論是上漲或下跌。

  • But in that case, it's up in Q1. But beyond that, you have two-thirds of it is linked to essentially product mix and efficiencies. As you know, we have significantly worked in order to improve the efficiency of our industrial footprint over the last couple of years. And we are starting to get the benefits now.

    但在這種情況下,它在第一季就會上升。但除此之外,其中三分之二主要與產品組合和效率有關。如您所知,過去幾年來,我們為提高工業足跡的效率做出了巨大努力。現在我們開始獲益了。

  • And the product mix is happening across the board. It's not only Dupixent. You were mentioning the new Dupixent process. It is one factor among others. By the way, this one has been spread over a few years, so it's not specific to Q1, and it started already two years ago and it's not completed yet. So it's over a relative long period. Going forward, do expect to see some further increase in gross margin, not necessarily significant for the remainder of 2025. But over the next couple of years, we will continue to see our gross margin improve.

    產品組合正在全面改變。不僅僅是 Dupixent。您提到了新的 Dupixent 流程。這是眾多因素之一。順便說一句,這個計劃已經持續了幾年,所以它並不是針對第一季的,而且它兩年前就已經開始,但還沒有完成。所以這是一個相對較長的時期。展望未來,毛利率預計將進一步增加,但在 2025 年剩餘時間內不一定會有顯著成長。但在接下來的幾年裡,我們將繼續看到我們的毛利率提高。

  • Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

    Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Okay, thank you. Next question.

    好的,謝謝。下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Florent Cespedes, Bernstein.

    弗洛朗·塞斯佩德斯、伯恩斯坦。

  • Florent Cespedes - Analyst

    Florent Cespedes - Analyst

  • Good afternoon. Florent Cespedes from Bernstein. So two quick questions, please. First, I would like to come back on amlitelimab. Could you maybe give a little bit more color on the percentage of the population with severe asthma that should respond the most to the product? You highlighted the higher xenophil or neutrophil. What percentage of severe asthma population these people represent?

    午安.伯恩斯坦的 Florent Cespedes。請問您兩個簡單的問題。首先,我想回顧一下 amlitelimab。您能否更詳細地說明一下對該產品反應最強烈的嚴重氣喘患者的比例?您強調了較高的異種粒細胞或嗜中性球。這些人佔嚴重氣喘人口的百分之多少?

  • And my second question is on Medicare Part D redesign. It was supposed to impact most likely more heavily the first quarter and then the impact should ease during the course of the year. Could you maybe elaborate a bit and give some color on the impact from this measure on your accounts? Thank you.

    我的第二個問題是關於醫療保險 D 部分的重新設計。預計其對第一季的影響可能會更大,然後在今年年內影響會逐漸減輕。您能否詳細說明一下並說明這項措施對您的帳戶的影響?謝謝。

  • Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

    Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Thank you, Florent. In the interest of time, I'll just quickly answer the subpopulation question. We've not shared and we're not trying to help calibrate that at the moment. We're getting to the Phase 3 and we can get into more detail on that.

    謝謝你,弗洛朗。為了節省時間,我將快速回答亞群問題。我們尚未分享,目前我們也不會嘗試幫助校準這一點。我們即將進入第三階段,我們可以對此進行更詳細的討論。

  • Brian, Part D?

    布萊恩,D 部分?

  • Brian Foard - Head of the Specialty Medicine Entity, Member of the Executive Committee

    Brian Foard - Head of the Specialty Medicine Entity, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Yeah, Medicare Part D. Remember, there's two pieces to this first piece. First piece -- actually, I'll cover Dupixent a little bit more specifically. Just to remind you, most of our business, more than 70% of our business is still on the commercial side. About 30% of it is on the government-based side. A percentage of that is actually Medicare quite specifically.

    是的,醫療保險 D 部分。請記住,第一部分有兩個部分。第一篇文章—實際上,我將更具體地介紹 Dupixent。只是提醒您,我們的大部分業務,超過 70% 的業務仍在商業方面。其中約30%屬於政府方面。其中很大一部分實際上是醫療保險。

  • And then there's two pieces as it relates to the Medicare Part D redesign. One is obviously the covering the gap there. And that is we've seen a slight impact of that, obviously, as we anticipated. And that was part of our plans. Actually, we originally knew this for quite some time.

    還有兩部分與醫療保險 D 部分重新設計有關。一是顯然要填補那裡的空白。顯然,正如我們預期的那樣,我們已經看到了輕微的影響。這是我們計劃的一部分。其實我們很早就知道這一點。

  • But the other part that actually is interesting to us is the cap of 2,000 out of pocket. And while we haven't seen an inflection of that yet, there are some early signs that actually there might be more patients up for grabs now with the fact that they have no more than 2,000 out-of-pocket expense. So we'll see how that progresses in 2025. But so far, we think that there'll be some positives and some offset of that actually for the Medicare Part D redesign.

    但實際上令我們感興趣的另一部分是自付額 2,000 美元的上限。雖然我們還沒有看到這種變化,但有一些早期跡象表明,實際上現在可能有更多的患者可供選擇,因為他們的自付費用不超過 2,000 美元。我們將拭目以待 2025 年的進展。但到目前為止,我們認為醫療保險 D 部分的重新設計實際上會帶來一些正面影響和一些抵消影響。

  • Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

    Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Okay, thank you. Next question.

    好的,謝謝。下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Sarita Kapila, Morgan Stanley.

    薩里塔·卡皮拉,摩根士丹利。

  • Sarita Kapila - Analyst

    Sarita Kapila - Analyst

  • Hello. Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. Just a quick one on your US flu vaccine dynamics. I think you called out softer demand and intensifying pricing pressure. So is this baked into your guidance for this year? And consensus is factoring 3% sales growth for flu this year. Should we be thinking about '25 as another year of potentially low single-digit declines?

    你好。你好。感謝您回答我的問題。我只想簡單介紹一下美國流感疫苗的動態。我認為您提到了需求疲軟和價格壓力加劇。那麼這是否已納入您今年的指導中?普遍預計今年流感銷售額將成長 3%。我們是否應該將 25 年視為又一個可能出現低個位數下降的年份?

  • And then taking a step back on AD, you have multiple modalities, OX40, IRAK, also bispecifics with lunsekimig. Some of your peers, Pfizer and J&J, are pursuing trispecifics. So it'd be interesting to get your thoughts here. Is this something you also plan to do? And any thoughts on trispecifics and AD would be interesting. Thank you.

    然後回顧 AD,您有多種模式,OX40、IRAK,還有帶有 lunsekimig 的雙特異性抗體。您的一些同行,輝瑞和強生,正在追求三特異性抗體。所以在這裡聽聽你的想法會很有趣。您也計劃這麼做嗎?任何有關三特異性和 AD 的想法都會很有趣。謝謝。

  • Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

    Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Okay. Thomas?

    好的。托馬斯?

  • Thomas Triomphe - Executive Vice President - Vaccines, Member of the Executive Committee

    Thomas Triomphe - Executive Vice President - Vaccines, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Yes. Thank you, Sarita. On US flu, a bit too early to be definitive there because we are still in pre-booking period right now for flu in the US. But we wanted to highlight what we observe in this process. You remember that last year during the flu season, we observed in the US a soft vaccination coverage rate, roughly minus 5% for the US population last year. And that turns out to generate some price competition as we observe it today in the US during the pre-bookings. A bit too early. Usually, I give more color at the Q2 earnings after the pre-booking season. So stay tuned for the next part.

    是的。謝謝你,薩麗塔。關於美國流感,現在下結論還為時過早,因為我們現在仍處於美國流感的預約期。但我們想強調我們在過程中觀察到的情況。大家還記得嗎,去年流感季節,我們觀察到美國的疫苗接種覆蓋率很低,去年美國人口的疫苗接種覆蓋率約為-5%。正如我們今天在美國預訂期間所觀察到的那樣,這會產生一些價格競爭。有點太早了。通常,我會在預訂季過後對第二季的收益做出更多預測。敬請期待下一部分。

  • Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

    Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Thank you. Houman, trispecifics?

    謝謝。Houman,三特異生物?

  • Houman Ashrafian - Executive Vice President, Head of Research and Development, Member of the Executive Committee

    Houman Ashrafian - Executive Vice President, Head of Research and Development, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Yeah. We're close to time, so I'll be super brief. Just to say, obviously, we are well aware of trispecifics. Our NANOBODY platform allows us to generate tri- or quadrispecifics, et cetera. It's an area we've looked at.

    是的。時間快到了,所以我會非常簡短地講一下。顯然,我們非常了解三特異性。我們的 NANOBODY 平台使我們能夠產生三特異性或四特異性等等。這是我們研究過的一個領域。

  • Just a point of caution, it's very hard to calibrate the geometric interactions between each of the heads. And we don't expect repeated incremental additional value. We're adding additional biology. But the short answer to your question is yes, of course, we've thought about trispecifics.

    需要注意的是,校準每個頭部之間的幾何相互作用非常困難。我們也不期望重複增加附加價值。我們正在添加額外的生物學內容。但對你的問題的簡短答案是肯定的,當然,我們已經考慮過三特異性。

  • And I should say, when you talk about atopic dermatitis, I just want to remind everybody that it's a massively biologically underpenetrated marketplace. And there is substantial room for new molecules in that space. We remain committed to Dupixent.

    我應該說,當你談論異位性皮膚炎時,我只是想提醒大家,這是一個生物學滲透程度極低的市場。該空間中還有足夠的空間容納新分子。我們仍然致力於 Dupixent。

  • Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

    Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Yeah. And just before I move to the last question, I think this is, we said this at the end of, I think it was '23 at R&D Day. I think it's still not fully appreciated that multiple mechanisms in diseases drive up biologic penetration. I think we're still at low double-digit or high single-digit, 14% in AD. So 86% of the patients that are biologic eligible don't get a biologic in AD. We know that RA is closer to 50% at this point. Between then and there, there is so much opportunity. And it's new entrants, different approaches.

    是的。在我進入最後一個問題之前,我想這是我們在研發日結束時說的,我記得那是 23 年。我認為人們還沒有完全認識到疾病中的多種機制會推動生物製劑的滲透。我認為我們的 AD 率仍處於低兩位數或高個位數,即 14%。因此,86% 適合使用生物製劑治療的 AD 患者沒有使用生物製劑。我們知道此時 RA 已接近 50%。從那時到那時,存在著許多機會。這是新進入者,有不同的方法。

  • I think this coexisting of different mechanisms is completely underrepresented in forecasting. Still, we see people thinking it's winners and losers. A good example would be the enthusiasm we have, and I think you said it up top, for amlitelimab and Dupixent to both grow very well all the way to the end of patent by taking up new patients and coexist with different approaches. And over time, people's confidence in this approach will play out. But for us, having seen a little bit more data than the rest of you, we're very confident in how that manifests.

    我認為這種不同機制的共存現像在預測中完全沒有充分體現。儘管如此,我們仍然看到人們認為這有贏家和輸家之分。一個很好的例子就是我們的熱情,我想您上面已經說過了,amlitelimab 和 Dupixent 都能夠透過接收新患者並與不同的方法共存,一直到專利期結束都能夠很好地發展。隨著時間的推移,人們對這種方法的信心將會得到充分體現。但對我們來說,由於看到了比其他人多一點的數據,我們對其表現形式非常有信心。

  • Okay, last question.

    好的,最後一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Simon Baker, Redburn.

    西蒙貝克,雷德伯恩。

  • Simon Baker - Analyst

    Simon Baker - Analyst

  • Thank you for taking my question at the end. Most of them have been picked off, so I can be pretty quick. Firstly, just going back to brivekimig, you gave us the P-value, Houman. I just wonder, given its Bayesian study, if you could give us the posterior probability in that study.

    感謝您最後回答我的問題。他們中的大多數已經被幹掉了,所以我可以很快地完成任務。首先,回到 brivekimig,你給了我們 P 值,Houman。我只是想知道,鑑於它的貝葉斯研究,您是否可以給我們該研究中的後驗機率。

  • And then moving back to the oral TNF and thinking about the internal combination candidates, the IRAK4 degrader springs to mind. Are there any others that we should be thinking about that you may well combine the oral TNF with? Thanks so much.

    然後回到口服 TNF 並思考內部組合候選藥物,IRAK4 降解劑浮現在腦海中。我們還應該考慮將口服 TNF 與其它藥物結合使用嗎?非常感謝。

  • Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

    Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Okay. Well, we'll finish on this. Houman, over to you.

    好的。好吧,我們就此結束。Houman,交給你了。

  • Houman Ashrafian - Executive Vice President, Head of Research and Development, Member of the Executive Committee

    Houman Ashrafian - Executive Vice President, Head of Research and Development, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Simon, repeat your second question briefly for me.

    西蒙,請簡單重複你的第二個問題。

  • Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

    Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

  • The combinations, other oral combinations, internal and external.

    組合,其他口服組合,內部和外部。

  • Houman Ashrafian - Executive Vice President, Head of Research and Development, Member of the Executive Committee

    Houman Ashrafian - Executive Vice President, Head of Research and Development, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Yeah, okay. Yeah, thank you. Okay. So Simon, thank you for asking the excellent Bayesian question. I can't give you the posterior probability, nor did I give you the probability unless I was hallucinating. Apparently, the probability was my footnote, which is great.

    嗯,好的。是的,謝謝。好的。所以西蒙,謝謝你提出這個非常好的貝葉斯問題。我無法給你後驗機率,除非我出現幻覺,否則我也不會給你機率。顯然,這個機率是我的腳註,這很好。

  • So no, I can't give you. I am hallucinating. I can't give you the posterior probability. But actually, based on the data in the public domain in HS, you could work it out. That's a little test for you. And the answer for you, but you'll appreciate that based on the data in the footnote, it's compelling.

    所以不,我不能給你。我出現幻覺了。我無法給你後驗機率。但實際上,根據 HS 中公共領域的數據,你可以計算出答案。這是給你的一個小測試。這是給您的答案,但您會欣賞到,根據腳註中的數據,它是令人信服的。

  • And then the answer to the combo is there are multiple rational combinations. It would be unwise of me to disclose and prior art myself in this discussion. But I think that the natural combinations with a TNF are super clear to people in the art. And we will pursue many of them.

    那麼組合的答案就是有多個合理的組合。在這次討論中披露自己的現有技術對我來說是不明智的。但我認為,TNF 的自然組合對於本領域技術人員來說是非常清楚的。我們將會追求其中的許多目標。

  • Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

    Paul Hudson - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director, Member of the Executive Committee

  • Yeah. Maybe just to finish on that note, that's sort of obvious, I guess, based on whether you're trying to break new efficacy goals -- could be an IBD, could be an RA, could be in different, harder to treat diseases. I think that the open question we asked ourselves some time ago was, where is TNF approved and indicated? Where was it overtaken on injectables by other more selective approaches?

    是的。也許只是為了結束這一點,我想,這很明顯,取決於你是否試圖突破新的功效目標——可能是 IBD,可能是 RA,可能是不同的、更難治療的疾病。我認為我們前段時間問過自己的一個懸而未決的問題是,TNF 在哪裡獲得批准和適用?在註射劑方面,其他更有選擇性的方法在哪裡超越了它?

  • And then if you're going into orals, what does that tell you about the combinations that would be ideal? Because either are likely to not make it on efficacy on their own, but together they would. And that's the magic. So we'll get into that over the coming months and hopefully have some things to share, and we'll do that as we go. But otherwise, thank you all for the call. Appreciated. And we'll look forward to catching you in Q2.

    那麼,如果您要進行口服,那麼理想的組合是什麼呢?因為單獨使用任何一種方法都可能無法達到預期的效果,但結合起來卻可以。這就是魔法。因此,我們將在接下來的幾個月中深入研究這個問題,並希望有一些事情可以分享,我們將在進行過程中做到這一點。但除此之外,還是感謝大家的來電。非常感謝。我們期待在第二季與您見面。