Snap One Holdings Corp (SNPO) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. Welcome to Snap One Holdings Corp.'s Fiscal Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

下午好。歡迎來到 Snap One Holdings Corp. 的第四財季和 2022 年全年收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the call over to Snap One's Senior Vice President of Finance, Eric Steele. Sir, please proceed.

我現在想把電話轉給 Snap One 的財務高級副總裁 Eric Steele。先生，請繼續。

Great. Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, and welcome to Snap One's Fiscal Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, this call is being recorded. Joining us today from Snap One are John Heyman, CEO; and Mike Carlet, CFO.

偉大的。謝謝你，運營商。下午好，歡迎來到 Snap One 的第四財季和 2022 年全年收益電話會議。提醒一下，此通話正在錄音中。今天從 Snap One 加入我們的是首席執行官 John Heyman；和首席財務官 Mike Carlet。

Before we begin, we would like to remind everyone that our prepared remarks contain forward-looking statements, and management may make additional forward-looking statements in response to your questions, including, but not limited, to statements of expectations, future events or future financial performance. These statements do not guarantee future performance, and therefore, undue reliance should not be placed upon them.

在我們開始之前，我們想提醒大家，我們準備的評論包含前瞻性陳述，管理層可能會針對您的問題作出額外的前瞻性陳述，包括但不限於預期、未來事件或未來的陳述財務績效。這些陳述不保證未來的表現，因此，不應過分依賴它們。

Although we believe these expectations are reasonable, we undertake no obligation to revise any statements to reflect changes that occur after this call. Actual events or results could differ materially. These statements are based on current expectations of the company's management and involve inherent risks and uncertainties, including those identified in the Risk Factors section of our latest annual report on Form 10-K filed with the SEC.

儘管我們認為這些預期是合理的，但我們沒有義務修改任何聲明以反映此次電話會議後發生的變化。實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。這些陳述基於公司管理層當前的預期，涉及固有的風險和不確定性，包括我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表格最新年度報告的風險因素部分中確定的風險和不確定性。

All non-GAAP financial measures referenced in today's call are reconciled in our earnings press release to the most directly comparable GAAP measure. This call also contains time-sensitive information that is accurate only as of the time and date of this broadcast, March 14, 2023.

今天電話會議中提到的所有非 GAAP 財務指標都在我們的收益新聞稿中與最直接可比的 GAAP 指標進行了核對。此電話還包含時間敏感信息，這些信息僅在本次廣播的時間和日期（即 2023 年 3 月 14 日）之前是準確的。

Finally, I would like to remind everyone that this conference call is being webcast and a recording will be made available for replay on our Investor Relations website at investors.snapone.com. In addition to the webcast, we have posted a supplemental earnings presentation accompanying these results, which can also be found on our Investor Relations website.

最後，我想提醒大家，本次電話會議正在網絡直播中，我們的投資者關係網站 investors.snapone.com 將提供錄音供重播。除了網絡廣播之外，我們還發布了伴隨這些結果的補充收益演示，也可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。

I will now turn the call over to our CEO, John Heyman. John?

我現在將把電話轉給我們的首席執行官約翰海曼。約翰？

Eric, thank you, and welcome, everyone, and thanks for joining us this afternoon. To begin today's discussion, I'll give some company background, followed by a review of our recent performance, and then I'll turn the call over to our CFO, Mike Carlet. Mike will discuss our financial results for the quarter and year in more depth as well as provide our outlook for 2023. After that, I'll share some closing remarks before opening the call for questions. Let's get started.

埃里克，謝謝你，歡迎大家，感謝今天下午加入我們。在開始今天的討論之前，我將介紹一些公司背景，然後回顧我們最近的表現，然後我將把電話轉給我們的首席財務官 Mike Carlet。邁克將更深入地討論我們本季度和年度的財務業績，並提供我們對 2023 年的展望。之後，我將在開始提問之前分享一些結束語。讓我們開始吧。

To begin, at Snap One, we provide a smart living platform that empowers professional integrators to deliver joy, connectivity and security to discerning residential and commercial customers on a global scale. As a leading distributor to these integrators, we work with our network of approximately 20,000 professional do-it-for-me integrators to distribute our proprietary and third-party products through our e-commerce portal and growing local branch network.

首先，在 Snap One，我們提供了一個智能生活平台，使專業集成商能夠為全球範圍內挑剔的住宅和商業客戶提供歡樂、連通性和安全性。作為這些集成商的主要分銷商，我們與大約 20,000 名專業的“為我而做”的集成商網絡合作，通過我們的電子商務門戶和不斷擴大的本地分支網絡分銷我們的專有和第三方產品。

We further support our integrator partners with our proprietary software platforms and workflow solutions to allow them to successfully serve their customers across the project life cycle. We are confident there is a tremendous and durable growth opportunity in front of us, and we are positioning our integrator partners to realize this growth with us.

我們通過專有軟件平台和工作流解決方案進一步支持我們的集成商合作夥伴，使他們能夠在整個項目生命週期中成功地為客戶提供服務。我們相信，我們面前有一個巨大而持久的增長機會，我們正在讓我們的集成商合作夥伴與我們一起實現這一增長。

We believe homeowners will continue to upgrade their existing technology. We know the U.S. is under housed by millions of homes that will be built in the future, and we are confident small business formation will continue to be the backbone of the economy.

我們相信房主將繼續升級他們現有的技術。我們知道未來將建造數百萬套房屋，美國的住房不足，我們相信小企業的形成將繼續成為經濟的支柱。

It is inarguable that homes and businesses will become smarter over the next decade, and many will require professional help to integrate and support the technology they need. This is the #1 driver of our long-term growth, and no company is better positioned for this future than Snap One.

毫無疑問，未來十年家庭和企業將變得更加智能，許多人將需要專業幫助來集成和支持他們所需的技術。這是我們長期增長的第一驅動力，沒有哪家公司比 Snap One 更適合未來發展。

Our growth algorithm is simple. Continue to attract more integrator partners and capture more of their spend by building new products and driving adoption of our ecosystems. This formula will drive our growth over the next decade, and we will remain focused on executing this strategy while managing through the near-term uncertainty.

我們的增長算法很簡單。通過構建新產品和推動採用我們的生態系統，繼續吸引更多集成商合作夥伴並獲得他們的更多支出。這個公式將推動我們在未來十年的增長，我們將繼續專注於執行這一戰略，同時應對近期的不確定性。

Turning now to our recent performance. Our team delivered solid fourth quarter results. And despite a challenging macro environment, we achieved strong growth in net sales and adjusted EBITDA for fiscal year 2022. I am proud of what the entire team has accomplished as we navigated the ongoing impacts of a dynamic operating environment while continuing to deliver for integrator partners.

現在談談我們最近的表現。我們的團隊在第四季度取得了穩健的業績。儘管宏觀環境充滿挑戰，但我們在 2022 財年實現了淨銷售額和調整後 EBITDA 的強勁增長。我為整個團隊所取得的成就感到自豪，因為我們應對了動態運營環境的持續影響，同時繼續為集成商合作夥伴提供服務.

For the fiscal year, we delivered $1.124 billion in net sales and generated $114 million in adjusted EBITDA, representing year-over-year growth of 11% and 3%, respectively. Our fiscal fourth quarter results exceeded the guidance we shared last time we spoke.

本財年，我們實現了 11.24 億美元的淨銷售額和 1.14 億美元的調整後 EBITDA，分別同比增長 11% 和 3%。我們第四財季的業績超出了我們上次發言時分享的指引。

While the industry continues to reduce inventory levels in the channel, we saw integrator partner activity remain steady through Q4 as they worked against healthy backlogs in their own businesses. The channel inventory buildup helped sales in the first half of 2022, but has been a continuing headwind for us since then as integrators deplete inventory. Mike will elaborate on this dynamic in his remarks.

雖然該行業繼續降低渠道庫存水平，但我們看到集成商合作夥伴的活動在第四季度保持穩定，因為他們正在努力應對自己業務中的健康積壓。渠道庫存增加有助於 2022 年上半年的銷售，但此後隨著集成商耗盡庫存，這一直是我們的不利因素。邁克將在他的發言中詳細說明這一動態。

Looking back on 2022, a major focus for us was enhancing the smart living experience by improving both hardware and software offerings for our integrators and end consumers. At year-end and early 2023, we successfully introduced exciting new products across our outdoor entertainment lineup, linear lighting, control, surveillance and/or networking product categories.

回顧 2022 年，我們的主要關注點是通過為我們的集成商和最終消費者改進硬件和軟件產品來增強智能生活體驗。在年底和 2023 年初，我們在戶外娛樂系列、線性照明、控制、監控和/或網絡產品類別中成功推出了激動人心的新產品。

We're particularly excited about Halo, our new family of Control4 remotes; Araknis wireless access points, which enable enhanced connection speeds with Wi-Fi 6 technology; Vibrant linear lighting, which provides a fully immersive lighting experience; and Episode Radiance, which builds on our suite of outdoor entertainment products. Importantly, many of our new products will drive upgrade opportunities for our installed base of end customers.

我們對新的 Control4 遙控器系列 Halo 感到特別興奮； Araknis 無線接入點，可通過 Wi-Fi 6 技術提高連接速度；充滿活力的線性照明，提供完全身臨其境的照明體驗；和 Episode Radiance，它建立在我們的戶外娛樂產品套件之上。重要的是，我們的許多新產品將為我們的最終客戶群帶來升級機會。

Our products and services garnered significant industry recognition in 2022, including 17 CE Pro Quest for Quality Awards out of 22 identified subcategories; 40 Top 3 brand rankings across 62 identified product subcategories in the 2022 CE Pro 100 Brand Analysis Awards; and 2 Mark of Excellence Awards at the Consumer Electronics Show in January of this year.

我們的產品和服務在 2022 年獲得了重要的行業認可，包括 22 個子類別中的 17 個 CE Pro Quest for Quality Awards； 2022 CE Pro 100 品牌分析獎中 62 個已確定產品子類別的 40 個前 3 品牌排名；以及今年 1 月在消費電子展上榮獲 2 項卓越獎。

I'd also like to highlight a few strategic accomplishments across our business this past year. We continue to invest in and bolster our software and service offering. We released the Control4 OS 3.3.0 update; introduced the OvrC Connect app; and completed the acquisition of Parasol, a powerful 24/7 remote support service based on OvrC.

我還想強調一下過去一年我們在業務中取得的一些戰略成就。我們繼續投資並加強我們的軟件和服務產品。我們發布了Control4 OS 3.3.0更新；推出了 OvrC Connect 應用程序；並完成了對 Parasol 的收購，這是一個基於 OvrC 的強大的 24/7 遠程支持服務。

Two, our commercial and security growth markets remain important long-term opportunities for us, and we displayed continued progress in these areas in 2022. In commercial, we executed on product development, including the Control4 multi-display manager functionality that was voted in AV Technology, Best of InfoComm '22 Award winner. In security, we acquired home automation and security products provider, Clare Controls, and announced the upcoming launch of the new Luma x20 IP surveillance solution, which is now shipping.

第二，我們的商業和安全增長市場對我們來說仍然是重要的長期機會，我們在 2022 年展示了在這些領域的持續進展。在商業方面，我們執行了產品開發，包括在 AV 中投票的 Control4 多顯示器管理器功能技術，最佳 InfoComm '22 獎獲得者。在安全方面，我們收購了家庭自動化和安全產品提供商 Clare Controls，並宣布即將推出新的 Luma x20 IP 監控解決方案，該解決方案現已發貨。

Three, we expanded our omnichannel presence by opening 8 net new local branches in '22, including several in Q4, and acquiring 2 new branches in Canada through the acquisition of Staub. This brings the total number of North American branches to 41 as of year-end.

第三，我們通過在 22 年開設 8 家新的本地分支機構（包括在第四季度開設的幾家）以及通過收購 Staub 在加拿大收購 2 家新分支機構來擴大我們的全渠道業務。截至年底，這使北美分支機構總數達到 41 家。

Four, further enhancing our omnichannel initiative. We have begun to convert our e-commerce customers to a single e-commerce portal, which will drive efficiencies in our business, make our integration partners' lives easier and allow us to drive marketing programs with higher efficacy.

第四，進一步加強我們的全渠道主動性。我們已經開始將我們的電子商務客戶轉換為單一的電子商務門戶，這將提高我們的業務效率，讓我們的集成合作夥伴的生活更輕鬆，並使我們能夠以更高的效率推動營銷計劃。

We believe that we made significant progress with our strategy in '22 and are increasingly well positioned for a long-term smart living evolution over the coming years. Our position in the industry remains quite strong, and we are confident that growth in smart living adoption, the central role of the integrator in providing holistic solutions and our competitive differentiation will propel our long-term success.

我們相信，我們在 22 年的戰略中取得了重大進展，並且在未來幾年為長期智能生活的發展做好了越來越多的準備。我們在行業中的地位仍然非常穩固，我們相信智能生活採用率的增長、集成商在提供整體解決方案方面的核心作用以及我們的競爭優勢將推動我們的長期成功。

As to the economy and its impact on our business, as we discussed last quarter, we saw some softening around our residential end market, resulting in lower sales volumes relative to the first half of '22. We continue to see signs of end consumer cautiousness and elevated levels of channel inventory, which impacted our integrator partners' purchasing habits.

至於經濟及其對我們業務的影響，正如我們上個季度所討論的那樣，我們看到我們的住宅終端市場有些疲軟，導致銷量相對於 22 世紀上半年有所下降。我們繼續看到終端消費者謹慎和渠道庫存水平升高的跡象，這影響了我們的集成商合作夥伴的購買習慣。

Anecdotally, project delays and descoping are occurring as integrators seek to value engineer projects in response to a more price-conscious end consumer. Last quarter, we described our integrator partners had accumulated additional inventory in response to supply shortages. And we expected an impact of about $40 million to $60 million over the subsequent quarters as they rebalanced their own inventory positions.

有趣的是，隨著集成商尋求對工程項目進行估值以響應對價格更加敏感的最終消費者，項目延遲和範圍縮小正在發生。上個季度，我們描述了我們的集成商合作夥伴已經積累了額外的庫存以應對供應短缺。由於他們重新平衡了自己的庫存頭寸，我們預計在隨後的幾個季度將產生約 4000 萬至 6000 萬美元的影響。

Since our last call, we have leveraged our OvrC software to see when products purchased by the integrator are actually put into service. With the benefit of this added visibility, we now believe inventory in the channel peaked towards the end of Q2 of '22 but well above the high end of the range we've previously communicated. Since then, we have seen strong signs of destocking across the channel and expect to reach a normalized state in the second half of '23.

自從我們上次通話以來，我們已經利用我們的 OvrC 軟件來查看集成商購買的產品何時實際投入使用。得益於這種增加的可見性，我們現在相信渠道中的庫存在 22 年第二季度末達到頂峰，但遠高於我們之前傳達的範圍的高端。從那以後，我們看到了整個渠道去庫存的強烈跡象，並預計將在 23 年下半年達到正常化狀態。

While the residential market remains a bit soft, our diversified business model allows us to serve integrator partners across a variety of end markets. These partners do remain busy and continue to prove their resiliency, showcasing their ability to pivot projects and adapt to the current environment. Historically, their capacity has been a governor on our growth, particularly given the tight labor market, with demand for their services exceeding supply. So some contraction in end consumer demand can be absorbed by the channel given the ongoing capacity constraints.

雖然住宅市場仍然有些疲軟，但我們多元化的商業模式使我們能夠為各種終端市場的集成商合作夥伴提供服務。這些合作夥伴確實仍然很忙，並繼續證明他們的彈性，展示他們調整項目和適應當前環境的能力。從歷史上看，他們的能力一直是我們增長的調節器，特別是考慮到勞動力市場緊張，對他們的服務供不應求。因此，鑑於持續的產能限制，終端消費者需求的一些收縮可以被渠道吸收。

Meanwhile, we continue to invest in the long-term growth of the business to extend our leadership position. However, given the uncertain macro backdrop, we have reviewed our long-term operating plan and prioritized investments in areas that we believe will position us for sustained long-term growth while curtailing spend in other places. Here are some actions we've taken.

同時，我們繼續投資於業務的長期增長，以擴大我們的領導地位。然而，鑑於不確定的宏觀背景，我們已經審查了我們的長期運營計劃，並優先投資於我們認為將使我們能夠實現持續長期增長的領域，同時減少在其他地方的支出。以下是我們採取的一些行動。

Number one, we're eliminating inefficiencies in the business from the COVID time period. As input costs, freight rates and other supply chain factors normalize, we are driving an improvement in our contribution rate -- contribution margin rate, excuse me. Two, we expect more research and development efficiency by not having to redesign products in response to componentry availability challenges.

第一，我們正在消除 COVID 期間業務中的低效率問題。隨著投入成本、運費和其他供應鏈因素的正常化，我們正在推動我們貢獻率的提高——邊際貢獻率，對不起。第二，我們希望通過不必重新設計產品來應對組件可用性挑戰來提高研發效率。

Three, we completed a strategic repositioning of our sales force to increase integrator partner coverage and identified other areas of efficiency in the business. And four, we're being diligent with costs in our business, ranging from warehouse, operation consolidation to reducing travel expenses.

第三，我們完成了對銷售人員的戰略重新定位，以增加集成商合作夥伴的覆蓋範圍，並確定了業務中的其他效率領域。第四，我們正在努力控制業務成本，從倉庫、運營整合到減少差旅費用。

Collectively, these changes resulted in a modest workforce reduction of about 3% in our business in the first quarter of 2023. I'm going to now comment briefly on our outlook, and then I'll turn the call over to Mike.

總的來說，這些變化導致我們的業務在 2023 年第一季度適度裁員約 3%。我現在將簡要評論我們的前景，然後我會把電話轉給邁克。

As we look to the rest of 2023, we expect the operating environment to remain challenging, particularly in the residential end market. In response, we have constructed an operating plan that reflects a heightened focus on delivering strong profitability and driving operating margin expansion. We are executing on controllable strategies consistent with our long-term growth algorithm that will enable us to outperform.

展望 2023 年剩餘時間，我們預計經營環境仍將充滿挑戰，尤其是在住宅終端市場。作為回應，我們制定了一項運營計劃，該計劃反映了對提供強勁盈利能力和推動營業利潤率增長的高度關注。我們正在執行與我們的長期增長算法一致的可控策略，這將使我們能夠跑贏大盤。

These include: one, increasing our share of wallet with increased -- with existing integrators through the adoption of our ecosystems and new products; two, continuing to innovate, invest in and launch exciting new smart living products; three, open new local branches; four, adding new integrator partners across our business, including in security and commercial markets, where we continue to see outsized growth; and finally, enhancing our software platform capabilities and introducing new software and service-based solutions.

其中包括：第一，通過採用我們的生態系統和新產品，與現有集成商一起增加我們的錢包份額；二、持續創新，投資推出令人興奮的智能生活新產品；三、開設新的當地分支機構；第四，在我們的業務中增加新的集成商合作夥伴，包括在安全和商業市場，我們繼續看到超額增長；最後，增強我們的軟件平台能力並引入新的軟件和基於服務的解決方案。

Further, we intend to deliver this relative growth while driving scale in our operating model through improving our contribution margin rate as input and supply chain costs, such as freight, logistics, commodities and componentry costs, continue to normalize; moderating our investment pace to drive efficiency and optimize productivity; and finally, strengthening our balance sheet. We remain confident in our operating model.

此外，我們打算通過提高邊際貢獻率來實現這種相對增長，同時擴大我們的運營模式，因為運費、物流、商品和零部件成本等投入和供應鏈成本繼續正常化；調整我們的投資步伐以提高效率和優化生產力；最後，加強我們的資產負債表。我們對我們的運營模式充滿信心。

And still, while demand has stabilized at current levels, persistent macro uncertainty causes us to take a pragmatic approach to our near-term forecasts. We are, therefore, setting our net sales and adjusted EBITDA guidance for '23 accordingly, and Mike will discuss this in further detail. We believe our resilient integrator partners, our diversified business model and consistently strong execution will continue to position us to prosper in a dynamic macro environment.

儘管如此，儘管需求已穩定在當前水平，但持續的宏觀不確定性使我們對近期預測採取務實的態度。因此，我們正在相應地設定 23 年的淨銷售額和調整後的 EBITDA 指導，Mike 將對此進行更詳細的討論。我們相信，我們富有彈性的集成商合作夥伴、我們多元化的商業模式和始終如一的強大執行力將繼續使我們在充滿活力的宏觀環境中取得成功。

Mike, with that, I'll turn the call over to you to discuss the fourth quarter and full year financial results and '23 outlook in greater detail.

邁克，有了這個，我會把電話轉給你，更詳細地討論第四季度和全年的財務業績以及 23 年的展望。

Thanks, John. So I'll turn now to our financial results for the fiscal fourth quarter and for the full year ended December 30, 2022. Net sales in the fiscal fourth quarter decreased 1.9% to $268.2 million from $273.5 million in the comparable year ago period. The extra week in fiscal fourth quarter 2021 added approximately $17.9 million in net sales, and excluding that extra week, net sales increased approximately 5%.

謝謝，約翰。因此，我現在將談談我們第四財季和截至 2022 年 12 月 30 日的全年的財務業績。第四財季的淨銷售額從去年同期的 2.735 億美元下降 1.9% 至 2.682 億美元。 2021 財年第四季度的額外一周增加了約 1790 萬美元的淨銷售額，不包括額外的一周，淨銷售額增長了約 5%。

For the full year ended December 30, net sales increased 11.5% to $1.124 billion, up from $1.008 billion in the comparable year ago period. Again, the extra week in fiscal '21 added $17.9 million. So excluding that extra week, net sales increased approximately 14%.

截至 12 月 30 日的全年，淨銷售額增長 11.5% 至 11.24 億美元，高於去年同期的 10.08 億美元。同樣，'21 財年的額外一周增加了 1790 萬美元。因此，除去那一周，淨銷售額增長了約 14%。

The growth in net sales during the quarter and year reflects several drivers. First, organic growth, including higher selling prices, resulting from price adjustments enacted across our product portfolio in 2022. The collective ramp of 8 net new local branches opened in 2022 also contributed to organic growth. Several of these branches were opened in the most recent quarter, bringing the company's total local branch count to 41 as of year-end. Additionally, the company benefited from incremental sales contributions from Staub, which is acquired early in 2022.

本季度和年度淨銷售額的增長反映了幾個驅動因素。首先，有機增長，包括更高的售價，這是由於我們在 2022 年對產品組合進行了價格調整。2022 年新開設的 8 家本地分支機構的集體增長也為有機增長做出了貢獻。其中幾家分支機構在最近一個季度開業，使該公司截至年底的本地分支機構總數達到 41 家。此外，該公司還受益於 Staub 的增量銷售貢獻，該公司於 2022 年初被收購。

Now let me talk for a minute about the impact of channel inventory. As John noted in his comments, we have performed additional analysis to refine our view and channel inventory amount and the timing of that inventory coming in and flowing out. Based upon our visibility into the time line from when a product is shipped from our warehouse to when it is installed and activated within our OvrC software, we now estimate that channel inventory began to build in 2021 and peaked at over $100 million towards the end of the second quarter of 2022 before beginning a steady unwind.

現在讓我談談渠道庫存的影響。正如 John 在他的評論中指出的那樣，我們已經進行了額外的分析，以完善我們的觀點和渠道庫存量以及庫存流入和流出的時間。根據我們對從產品從我們的倉庫發貨到產品在我們的 OvrC 軟件中安裝和激活的時間線的可見性，我們現在估計渠道庫存在 2021 年開始增加，並在年底達到超過 1 億美元的峰值2022 年第二季度，然後開始穩步放鬆。

For full year '22, we estimate the in-year impact was a net $25 million to $30 million benefit to our top line results as the sell-in that occurred during the first half of the year was partially offset by the sell-down in the second half of the year. On a year-over-year basis, the channel inventory impacts were approximately the same in '21 and '22, meaning there was an insignificant impact to the top line growth rate. However, the channel inventory impact was much more pronounced in the fiscal fourth quarter.

對於 22 年全年，我們估計年內影響是我們的收入淨收益 2500 萬至 3000 萬美元，因為上半年發生的拋售被 2019 年上半年的拋售部分抵消下半年。與去年同期相比，21 年和 22 年的渠道庫存影響大致相同，這意味著對收入增長率的影響微不足道。然而，渠道庫存的影響在第四財季更為明顯。

We believe between $15 million and $20 million of destocking that occurred in Q4 of 2022, representing an approximate 10% to 15% headwind to year-over-year growth in the quarter as we lapped inventory loading activity in Q4 '21. As John noted earlier, we anticipate continued channel destocking of about $15 million to $25 million per quarter over the first 3 quarters of 2023 before reaching a normalized state in the second half of the year.

我們認為，2022 年第四季度發生了 1500 萬至 2000 萬美元的去庫存，這與我們在 21 年第四季度的庫存加載活動結束時相比，該季度的同比增長約有 10% 至 15% 的逆風。正如 John 之前指出的那樣，我們預計在今年下半年達到正常狀態之前，在 2023 年前 3 個季度，渠道庫存將持續減少約 1500 萬至 2500 萬美元。

Turning now to contribution margin. One of the most significant drivers of our '22 financial performance was the impact of a challenging supply chain environment. Inbound freight rates, ship shortages and other supply chain challenges persisted throughout the year and required significant effort and expense to overcome.

現在轉向邊際貢獻。我們 22 年財務業績的最重要驅動因素之一是充滿挑戰的供應鏈環境的影響。入境運費、船舶短缺和其他供應鏈挑戰全年持續存在，需要付出大量努力和費用才能克服。

We began to see an improvement in the second half of '22 and anticipate supply chain normalization in '23. With that said, our contribution margin, a non-GAAP measurement of operating performance, decreased 0.1% to $105.8 million or 39.4% of net sales in the fiscal fourth quarter from $105.9 million or 38.7% of net sales in the comparable year ago period.

我們開始看到 22 年下半年的改善，並預計 23 年供應鏈正常化。話雖如此，我們的邊際收益（一種非公認會計準則衡量經營業績的指標）從去年同期的 1.059 億美元或占淨銷售額的 38.7% 下降 0.1% 至第四財季的 1.058 億美元或占淨銷售額的 39.4%。

On a dollar basis, the flat year-over-year contribution margin performance reflects the modest decline in net sales and continued product mix shift to third-party products, which typically carry a lower contribution margin as a percentage of net sales relative to our proprietary product. These factors were partially offset by the higher selling prices and improvement in the supply chain environment in the fourth quarter as compared to the remainder of the year.

按美元計算，貢獻利潤率同比持平反映了淨銷售額的適度下降以及產品組合繼續向第三方產品轉移，與我們的專有產品相比，第三方產品的貢獻利潤率占淨銷售額的百分比通常較低產品。與今年剩餘時間相比，第四季度更高的銷售價格和供應鏈環境的改善部分抵消了這些因素。

In the fiscal fourth quarter, third-party product sales represented 35.3% of net sales compared to 32.2% in the comparable year ago period. Contribution margin as a percentage of net sales improved by 70 basis points on a year-over-year basis, driven by higher selling prices, net of product costs, mix and supply chain impacts.

在第四財季，第三方產品銷售額占淨銷售額的 35.3%，而去年同期為 32.2%。邊際收益占淨銷售額的百分比同比提高 70 個基點，這主要得益於更高的銷售價格（扣除產品成本、產品組合和供應鏈影響）。

For the full year 2022, contribution margin increased 8.1% to $441.2 million or 39.3% of net sales, up from $408.1 million or 40.5% of net sales in the comparable year ago period. On a dollar basis, the increase in contribution margin was driven by the net sales growth, partially offset by the continued product mix shift to third-party products.

2022 年全年，邊際收益從去年同期的 4.081 億美元或淨銷售額的 40.5% 增長 8.1% 至 4.412 億美元或淨銷售額的 39.3%。按美元計算，邊際收益的增加是由淨銷售額增長推動的，部分被持續的產品組合轉向第三方產品所抵消。

For the full year '22, third-party product sales represented 32.2% of net sales compared to 30.3% in the comparable year ago period. Contribution margin as a percentage of net sales declined on a year-over-year basis due to product cost, mix and supply chain impacts, which was offset by the higher selling prices that were enacted.

對於 22 年全年，第三方產品銷售額占淨銷售額的 32.2%，而去年同期為 30.3%。由於產品成本、組合和供應鏈的影響，邊際收益占淨銷售額的百分比同比下降，但被制定的更高售價所抵消。

Selling, general and administrative or SG&A expenses in our fiscal fourth quarter decreased 9% to $83 million or 31% of net sales from $91.2 million or 33.4% of net sales in the year ago period. The decrease in SG&A expenses was primarily attributable to the lapping of the extra week in last year's fiscal fourth quarter and lower variable compensation expense.

我們第四財季的銷售、一般和行政或 SG&A 費用從去年同期的 9120 萬美元或淨銷售額的 33.4% 下降 9% 至 8300 萬美元或淨銷售額的 31%。 SG&A 費用的減少主要歸因於去年第四財季的額外一周和可變補償費用的減少。

For the full year ended December 30, 2022, SG&A expenses increased 1.2% to $354.3 million or 31.5% of net sales, up from $350.3 million in the prior year or 34.7% of net sales. The increase in SG&A expenses during the year was primarily attributable to higher personnel expenses due to increased headcount from new local branch openings and M&A, a resumption in pre-COVID travel and ongoing investments to support strategic growth initiatives, offset by lower variable compensation.

截至 2022 年 12 月 30 日的全年，SG&A 費用增長 1.2% 至 3.543 億美元，占淨銷售額的 31.5%，高於上年的 3.503 億美元，占淨銷售額的 34.7%。年內 SG&A 費用的增加主要是由於新的當地分支機構開設和併購導致員工人數增加導致人事費用增加、COVID 前旅行恢復以及為支持戰略增長計劃而進行的持續投資被較低的可變薪酬所抵消。

In fiscal year 2022, we also incurred the full year burden of public company costs and absorbed other costs associated with recently acquired businesses. Our net loss totaled $4.1 million in the fourth quarter compared to a net loss of $7.8 million in the comparable year ago period. And for the full year 2022, net loss totaled $8.7 million compared to a net loss of $36.5 million for the full year of 2021.

在 2022 財年，我們還承擔了全年的上市公司成本負擔，並吸收了與最近收購的業務相關的其他成本。我們在第四季度的淨虧損總額為 410 萬美元，而去年同期為淨虧損 780 萬美元。 2022 年全年淨虧損總計 870 萬美元，而 2021 年全年淨虧損為 3650 萬美元。

Our adjusted EBITDA, a non-GAAP measurement of operating performance, totaled $26.9 million or 10% of net sales in the fourth quarter 2022 compared to $26 million or 9.5% of net sales in the comparable year ago period. And for the full year ended December 30, 2022, adjusted EBITDA increased 3% to $114.1 million or 10.2% of net sales, up from $110.8 million or 11% of net sales for the full year 2021.

2022 年第四季度，我們調整後的 EBITDA 是一種非公認會計原則的經營業績衡量標準，總計 2690 萬美元，占淨銷售額的 10%，而去年同期為 2600 萬美元，占淨銷售額的 9.5%。截至 2022 年 12 月 30 日的全年，調整後的 EBITDA 增長 3% 至 1.141 億美元，占淨銷售額的 10.2%，高於 2021 年全年的 1.108 億美元，占淨銷售額的 11%。

These changes in adjusted EBITDA were primarily attributable to net sales and contribution margin growth, offset by increased SG&A expenses. And a decrease in adjusted EBITDA as a percentage of net sales in the year is primarily attributable to the contribution margin as a percentage of net sales declining on a year-over-year basis.

調整後 EBITDA 的這些變化主要歸因於淨銷售額和貢獻利潤率的增長，被增加的 SG&A 費用所抵消。調整後的 EBITDA 佔當年淨銷售額的百分比下降主要是由於邊際收益占淨銷售額的百分比同比下降。

Adjusted net income, a non-GAAP measurement of operating performance, decreased 24.9% to $10.5 million or 3.9% of net sales from $13.9 million or 5.1% of net sales in the year ago period. And for the full year ended December 30, 2022, adjusted net income decreased 1.9% to $52.6 million or 4.7% of net sales from $53.6 million or 5.3% of net sales, again, in the comparable year ago period.

調整後的淨收入是衡量經營業績的非 GAAP 指標，從去年同期的 1390 萬美元或淨銷售額的 5.1% 下降 24.9% 至 1050 萬美元或淨銷售額的 3.9%。截至 2022 年 12 月 30 日的全年，調整後淨收入從去年同期的 5360 萬美元或淨銷售額的 5.3% 下降 1.9% 至 5260 萬美元或淨銷售額的 4.7%。

Finally, free cash flow, a non-GAAP measurement of operating performance, totaled negative $44.6 million in the fiscal year ended December 30, 2022, compared to negative $40.4 million in the comparable year ago period. The decrease in free cash flow was primarily attributable to capital expenditures associated with the build-out of our new corporate office in Lehi, Utah, new local branch openings and capitalized IT cost.

最後，截至 2022 年 12 月 30 日的財政年度，自由現金流（一種非公認會計準則衡量經營業績的指標）總計為負 4,460 萬美元，而去年同期為負 4,040 萬美元。自由現金流的減少主要是由於與我們在猶他州李海的新公司辦公室的擴建、新的當地分支機構開設和資本化 IT 成本相關的資本支出。

Net cash used in operating activities for the fiscal year ended December 30, 2022, was negative $23.1 million. This use of cash was primarily driven by an increase in inventory to protect against supply chain uncertainty. Our target inventory level, based upon our current demand, remains at approximately $275 million. And while we anticipate continued modest inventory growth in the first quarter of 2023, we remain confident in our plan to rightsize inventory levels this year.

截至 2022 年 12 月 30 日止財政年度，經營活動使用的現金淨額為負 2310 萬美元。這種現金使用主要是由庫存增加驅動的，以防止供應鏈的不確定性。根據我們當前的需求，我們的目標庫存水平保持在大約 2.75 億美元。儘管我們預計 2023 年第一季度庫存將繼續適度增長，但我們對今年調整庫存水平的計劃仍然充滿信心。

At the end of the fiscal fourth quarter and full year 2022, we had approximately $104.1 million of liquidity, including cash and cash equivalents of $21.1 million and undrawn revolver capacity of $82.9 million. And just a few other KPIs that we had talked about on an annual basis.

在第四財季末和 2022 年全年，我們擁有大約 1.041 億美元的流動資金，包括現金和現金等價物 2110 萬美元以及未提取的循環能力 8290 萬美元。以及我們每年討論的其他一些 KPI。

We introduced a few annual key performance indicators or KPIs after fiscal Q1 of last year to provide enhanced visibility into key operating metrics. These KPIs regard the count of transacting domestic integrators in the spend per transacting domestic integrator. And we'll continue to present these metrics on an annual basis.

在去年第一財季之後，我們引入了一些年度關鍵績效指標或 KPI，以增強對關鍵運營指標的可見性。這些 KPI 考慮了國內交易集成商在每個交易國內集成商支出中的數量。我們將繼續每年公佈這些指標。

In fiscal year 2022, we transacted with approximately 20,100 different domestic integrators who spent, on average, $45,500 each. On a year-over-year basis, the number of transacting domestic integrators and spend per transacting domestic integrator increased 0.5% and 9.6%, respectively. Over time, we have demonstrated the consistent ability to grow both our number of domestic integrators and our spend per domestic integrator.

在 2022 財年，我們與大約 20,100 家不同的國內集成商進行了交易，他們平均每家花費 45,500 美元。與去年同期相比，國內交易集成商的數量和每個交易國內集成商的支出分別增長了 0.5% 和 9.6%。隨著時間的推移，我們已經展示了增加國內集成商數量和每個國內集成商支出的持續能力。

Now before I turn the call back over to John, I'll take a few minutes to provide our financial outlook for fiscal 2023. As a reminder, Snap One provides annual guidance for net sales as well as adjusted EBITDA as we believe these metrics to be key indicators for the overall performance of our business.

現在，在我將電話轉回給 John 之前，我將花幾分鐘時間介紹我們對 2023 財年的財務展望。提醒一下，Snap One 提供了淨銷售額和調整後 EBITDA 的年度指導，因為我們認為這些指標成為我們業務整體績效的關鍵指標。

Our fiscal 2023 guidance considers our full fiscal year '22 performance and our expectation that market uncertainty will persist throughout 2023. As such, we're taking a pragmatic approach to our outlook for the year as follows: first, we expect net sales in the fiscal year ending December 29, 2023, to range between $1.05 billion and $1.09 billion, which represents a decrease of 6.6% to a decrease of 3% compared to the prior fiscal year on an as-reported basis.

我們的 2023 財年指南考慮了我們整個 22 財年的業績以及我們對市場不確定性將持續到 2023 年的預期。因此，我們對今年的展望採取務實的態度如下：首先，我們預計淨銷售額在截至 2023 年 12 月 29 日的財政年度，收入在 10.5 億美元至 10.9 億美元之間，與上一財政年度相比下降 6.6% 至 3%。

We believe the contributing factors to 2023 net sales change are as follows: first, an 8% to 10% headwind from the channel inventory destocking that we previously mentioned; second, we expect to see 2% to 5% organic growth, which includes pricing carryover from last year, local branch ramp-up and new openings; and three, a small 1% impact from recently completed M&A.

我們認為導致 2023 年淨銷售額變化的因素如下：首先，我們之前提到的渠道庫存去庫存帶來 8% 至 10% 的逆風；其次，我們預計將實現 2% 至 5% 的有機增長，其中包括去年的定價結轉、當地分支機構的擴張和新開業；第三，最近完成的併購產生了 1% 的小影響。

We expect adjusted EBITDA to range between $107 million and $115 million, representing a decrease of 6.2% to an increase of 0.8% compared to the prior fiscal year on an as-reported basis. Our adjusted EBITDA guidance reflects our commitment to drive incremental adjusted EBITDA margin expansion in 2023. We expect to achieve this both through contribution margin rate improvement as supply chain and input costs normalize as well as continued disciplined operating expense management.

我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 將在 1.07 億美元至 1.15 億美元之間，與上一財年相比下降 6.2% 至增長 0.8%。我們調整後的 EBITDA 指引反映了我們在 2023 年推動增量調整後 EBITDA 利潤率擴張的承諾。我們希望通過隨著供應鍊和投入成本正常化而提高邊際收益率以及持續嚴格的運營費用管理來實現這一目標。

And as we think about quarterly trending in 2023, we expect our year-over-year net sales change in Q1 to be down mid- to high teens on a percentage basis, and our top line growth rate to sequentially improve each quarter over the course of the year. We anticipate a return to year-over-year growth in the second half of the year as we work through this channel destocking.

當我們考慮 2023 年的季度趨勢時，我們預計第一季度的同比淨銷售額變化百分比將下降到中高位，並且我們的收入增長率將在整個過程中每個季度依次提高的一年。隨著我們通過該渠道去庫存，我們預計下半年將恢復同比增長。

We expect contribution margin rate to improve quarter-over-quarter in Q1 '23 versus Q4 2022 and to continue to sequentially improve during the year. This contribution margin rate improvement reflects the realized and additional anticipated supply chain and input cost normalization.

我們預計與 2022 年第四季度相比，23 年第一季度的邊際貢獻率將環比改善，並在年內繼續環比改善。這種貢獻率的提高反映了已實現的和額外的預期供應鍊和投入成本正常化。

From an adjusted EBITDA perspective, we expect adjusted EBITDA margin compression year-over-year in Q1 '23 to mid-single digits given the lower net sales, followed by a return to year-over-year adjusted EBITDA margin improvement for the remainder of the year as we realize the contribution margin rate expansion.

從調整後的 EBITDA 角度來看，鑑於淨銷售額較低，我們預計 23 年第一季度調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率同比壓縮至中等個位數，隨後在剩餘時間恢復到同比調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率改善我們實現邊際貢獻率擴張的一年。

And finally, before I pass the call back over to John, as a reminder, last year, Snap One's Board of Directors approved a stock repurchase program that authorized potential repurchases of up to $25 million of our common stock from the date of approval, which was May 12, 2022, through the end of 2023. As of December 30, 2022, we had repurchased approximately 269,000 shares of our common stock at an aggregate value of approximately $2.9 million.

最後，在我將電話轉回給約翰之前，提醒一下，去年，Snap One 的董事會批准了一項股票回購計劃，該計劃授權自批准之日起回購最多 2500 萬美元的普通股，這從 2022 年 5 月 12 日到 2023 年底。截至 2022 年 12 月 30 日，我們已回購約 269,000 股普通股，總價值約為 290 萬美元。

Consistent with our capital allocation policy, we will continue to prioritize in this order: a, our balance sheet strength; b, our organic growth investments; c, accretive M&A opportunities; and finally, our opportunistic share repurchase program. That completes my summary.

根據我們的資本配置政策，我們將繼續按以下順序優先考慮：a，我們的資產負債表實力； b、我們的有機增長投資； c、增加併購機會；最後，我們的機會主義股票回購計劃。我的總結到此結束。

John, I'll turn the call back over to you for any additional commentary.

約翰，我會把電話轉給你，徵求任何其他評論。

Thanks, Mike. A few concluding thoughts before we take Q&A. First, for 2023, just to reiterate, we have confidence in our proprietary product launches, the growth in adjacent markets such as commercial and security, our local branch opening strategy and the benefit of last year's pricing adjustments. We also anticipate returning to our favorable contribution margin rate trajectory as costs related to the supply chain continue to alleviate, and we execute in line with a disciplined operating expense model.

謝謝，邁克。在我們進行問答之前的一些總結性想法。首先，對於 2023 年，重申一下，我們對我們的專有產品發布、商業和安全等相鄰市場的增長、我們當地分支機構的開設戰略以及去年定價調整的好處充滿信心。我們還預計，隨著與供應鏈相關的成本繼續下降，我們將回到有利的邊際貢獻率軌跡，並且我們會按照嚴格的運營費用模式執行。

Second, we remain committed to our strategy. This includes new product launches. This includes software investments and platform developments, all in service of supporting our integrators to capitalize on the opportunity in front of us and them. Even in an uncertain operating environment, we continue to strive to be the one partner that our integrators trust to support and grow their business.

其次，我們仍然致力於我們的戰略。這包括新產品發布。這包括軟件投資和平台開發，所有這些都是為了支持我們的集成商利用我們和他們面前的機會。即使在不確定的運營環境中，我們繼續努力成為我們的集成商信任的唯一合作夥伴，以支持和發展他們的業務。

And third, as I've said before, we believe all homes and businesses will become smarter over the next decade, driving demand for the types of experiences we offer today and those we can only imagine in the future. We're investing in scaling our operations and platforms to drive better solutions for the end consumer, more capacity for the integrator and growth for Snap One in a way that increases our operating margins over time.

第三，正如我之前所說，我們相信所有的家庭和企業都將在未來十年變得更加智能，從而推動對我們今天提供的體驗類型以及我們只能在未來想像的體驗類型的需求。我們正在投資擴大我們的運營和平台，為最終消費者提供更好的解決方案，為集成商提供更多容量，並以一種隨著時間的推移增加我們的營業利潤率的方式為 Snap One 提供增長。

We believe the actions that we took at the close of '22 and so far in '23 have prepared us to succeed in this environment while also positioning us for longer-term sustainable growth. And with that, operator, please open the call for Q&A.

我們相信，我們在 22 世紀末和 23 世紀迄今採取的行動使我們為在這種環境中取得成功做好了準備，同時也為我們的長期可持續增長做好了準備。有了這個，接線員，請打開問答電話。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Erik Woodring with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的埃里克伍德林。

So maybe just to start on the annual disclosures that you provided. The 1,000 net new integrators in 2022, can you maybe just unpackage that a little bit and help us understand maybe where some of those integrators were added, maybe where some that you transacted with in 2021 didn't come back in 2022, and then how you plan to kind of accelerate that growth on an absolute basis in 2023. And just -- I'll include my follow-up with that, too, is when we think about your guidance for 2023, kind of what underlies that guidance when we think about the number of transacting integrators and then spend per integrator.

因此，也許只是從您提供的年度披露開始。 2022 年淨增 1,000 家新集成商，您能否稍微拆解一下，幫助我們了解其中一些集成商是在哪裡添加的，也許您在 2021 年與之交易的一些集成商在 2022 年沒有回來，然後是如何你計劃在 2023 年在絕對基礎上加速這種增長。而且 - 我也會包括我的後續行動，就是當我們考慮你對 2023 年的指導時，當我們考慮你對 2023 年的指導時，該指導的基礎是什麼考慮交易集成商的數量，然後在每個集成商上花費。

This is...

這是...

Erik -- go ahead, John.

埃里克——繼續，約翰。

Go ahead, Mike.

來吧，邁克。

Well, Erik, first, good to see you last week. I'll start, John, and then you feel free to jump in. First of all, just to be clear, the number increased by 100 from 20,000 to 20,100, not by 1,000. So a relatively small increase year-over-year in the number of transacting integrators.

好吧，埃里克，首先，很高興上週見到你。我先開始，John，然後你可以隨意加入。首先，要明確一點，數字從 20,000 增加到 20,100，而不是增加 1,000。因此，交易集成商的數量同比增長相對較小。

As we think about that growth, we continue to see good growth in security and commercial. We actually saw a little bit of contraction in the home AV side of the transacting integrator account, which is not surprising given the market that was out there, given the way the supply chain moves and knowing that we have a long tail of integrators that spend relatively small dollars with us.

當我們考慮這種增長時，我們繼續看到安全和商業領域的良好增長。實際上，我們看到交易集成商賬戶的家庭 AV 方面出現了一些收縮，考慮到當時的市場，考慮到供應鏈的移動方式，並且知道我們有大量的集成商花費，這並不奇怪美元相對較少。

So that number in there with the churn of that lower integrator count doesn't really concern us. Last year, we were more focused on spend per and pricing with all the supply chain challenges that were there. And as we think about next year and how it flows through, as John mentioned, clearly, next year, we're prioritizing our share of wallet and growing our base -- our sales with our existing partners. We're certainly not giving up on adding more tiers.

因此，由於較低的集成商數量而流失的那個數字並不真正讓我們擔心。去年，我們更專注於每筆支出和定價，應對所有存在的供應鏈挑戰。當我們考慮明年以及它如何流動時，正如約翰明確提到的那樣，明年，我們將優先考慮我們的錢包份額並擴大我們的基礎 - 我們與現有合作夥伴的銷售。我們當然不會放棄添加更多層。

In fact, just given the normal churn in the business, every year, somebody is going to retire, somebody is going to sell their business. And so we know that we need to add over 1,000 integrators just to stay flat, and we expect to see that happen. But when we build our model for this year coming up, we're expecting integrated count to be relatively flat, most of our sales increase to be coming from spend per integrator and share of wallet. But for the future, as we think about our long-term growth algorithm, we do expect both to be equivalent contributors to our long-term growth.

事實上，考慮到業務的正常變動，每年都會有人退休，有人會出售他們的業務。所以我們知道我們需要增加 1,000 多個集成商才能保持穩定，我們希望看到這種情況發生。但是當我們為即將到來的今年建立模型時，我們預計集成數量將相對持平，我們的大部分銷售額增長將來自每個集成商的支出和錢包份額。但對於未來，當我們考慮我們的長期增長算法時，我們確實希望兩者都能為我們的長期增長做出同等貢獻。

Our next question comes from Paul Chung with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Paul Chung。

So just wanted to ask about some of the feedback from integrators for the year ahead. I guess, some competitors were kind of talking about rebounding order kind of growth in February and March. Are you seeing that? And then what are new products our integrators like the most excited about from kind of the new product portfolio and which areas are they seeing some softening demand?

所以只想問問集成商對來年的一些反饋。我想，一些競爭對手正在談論 2 月和 3 月的反彈訂單增長。你看到了嗎？那麼，在新產品組合中，我們的集成商最喜歡哪些新產品？他們認為哪些領域的需求有所疲軟？

Sure. This is John. The -- you had a few questions packed in there, but let me try to answered them all. I'd say we saw -- rather than rely on anecdote, we try to rely on survey data. And we saw a, what I would call, mild decline in integrator sentiment that translated into their backlogs. But the backlog still remain healthy, and the sentiment still remains positive.

當然。這是約翰。你有幾個問題，但讓我試著回答所有問題。我想說我們看到了——而不是依賴軼事，我們試圖依賴調查數據。我們看到，我稱之為集成商情緒的溫和下降，這轉化為他們的積壓。但積壓訂單仍然健康，市場情緒仍然樂觀。

That decline we saw at the end of last year into January, we saw it turn upwards in February. So that's a positive signal, number one.

我們在去年年底到 1 月份看到的下降，我們看到它在 2 月份出現了上升。所以這是一個積極的信號，第一。

Number two, and that's on the industry as opposed to our product. I think on our products, the excitement that we're seeing around our new Luma surveillance product, our previous Luma product was a bit old in the tooth. And so we're seeing great excitement around that and the software platform that underlies that.

第二，這是關於行業而不是我們的產品。我認為在我們的產品上，我們在新的 Luma 監控產品周圍看到的興奮，我們以前的 Luma 產品有點陳舊。因此，我們看到了圍繞它以及作為其基礎的軟件平台的巨大興奮。

Our Halo remote line that offers a host of capabilities to the end consumer, including voice control, I think, is something that consumers are already providing great feedback on. And integrators are really excited because it's a family of products as opposed to one, so it allows them to meet a variety of budgets.

我們的 Halo 遠程產品線為最終消費者提供了許多功能，包括語音控制，我認為消費者已經對此提供了很好的反饋。集成商真的很興奮，因為它是一個產品系列，而不是一個產品，所以它可以讓他們滿足各種預算。

I'd say the Radiance outdoor product line is kind of a one-of-a-kind product that combines lighting and audio, great reception around that product, but that's something that comes more in the spring, and kind of our -- a host of our lighting products. So I think we've created a significant amount of excitement. We view those as fairly incremental to this year's sales.

我會說 Radiance 戶外產品線是一種獨一無二的產品，結合了照明和音頻，圍繞該產品的良好接收，但這是春季更多的東西，有點我們 -我們的照明產品的主機。所以我認為我們已經創造了大量的興奮。我們認為這些對今年的銷售額來說是相當可觀的。

Many of those products are replacing other products that we already have. But we think they're critical to integrate our adoption and share of wallet over the coming years. So really feel good about that. And we haven't had any negative response to any of those products.

其中許多產品正在取代我們已有的其他產品。但我們認為它們對於在未來幾年整合我們的採用和錢包份額至關重要。所以真的感覺很好。我們對這些產品中的任何一個都沒有任何負面反應。

I would also say we had a major OvrC release during the quarter that is now out in the market. And after some pains of any kind of change management that comes with software adoption, that's been really well received. I am not seen in our sales data or, anecdotally, any products that our integrators are shying away from in terms of categories of products, et cetera.

我還要說的是，我們在本季度發布了一個主要的 OvrC 版本，現在已經上市。在經歷了軟件採用帶來的任何一種變更管理的痛苦之後，這真的很受歡迎。我沒有出現在我們的銷售數據中，也沒有出現我們的集成商在產品類別等方面迴避的任何產品。

So the product development team has done a great job. I think across the Board, we feel like we're the leaders in many of these product categories, the awards I've mentioned speaks to that. And I feel like we've only upped the game with the products we're introducing.

所以產品開發團隊做得很好。我認為在整個董事會中，我們覺得我們是許多這些產品類別中的領導者，我提到的獎項說明了這一點。而且我覺得我們只是通過推出的產品提升了遊戲水平。

Great. That's super helpful. And then just a follow-up. How do we think about the kind of the product mix on the top line throughout the year, integrated versus domestic versus international mix? And then can we start to see possibly some RMR revenue this year as well?

偉大的。這非常有幫助。然後只是跟進。我們如何看待全年收入最高的產品組合類型，綜合組合、國內組合和國際組合？然後我們今年也能開始看到一些 RMR 收入嗎？

Mike, why don't you take the mix question. And on the RMR side, we are -- we already have low 8-figure RMR revenues in the business. So that comes from our Parasol service offering and our 4Sight software offering. We've spoken about the huge opportunity in front of this industry to deliver against a recurring revenue model. And we think it's a very healthy model, aligning the end customer with the integrator with us.

邁克，你為什麼不回答混合問題。在 RMR 方面，我們 - 我們已經擁有低 8 位數的 RMR 業務收入。所以這來自我們的 Parasol 服務產品和我們的 4Sight 軟件產品。我們已經談到了這個行業面臨的巨大機遇，可以實現經常性收入模式。我們認為這是一個非常健康的模式，使最終客戶與集成商與我們保持一致。

We are in market testing right now with integrators with that product line, and we'll continue to keep you guys abreast of that. But we're seeing generally very favorable response and extending our end market testing with a few more integrators as we speak. Mike, do you want to talk to the mix question?

我們現在正在與該產品線的集成商一起進行市場測試，我們將繼續讓你們了解最新情況。但我們看到總體上非常有利的反應，並在我們說話時與更多的集成商一起擴展我們的終端市場測試。邁克，你想談談混音問題嗎？

Sure, John. I think as we talk about 2023 and how we're thinking about the business, within the model that we talked about in our guidance, we would say that we expect the 1P/3P mix to remain relatively flat in 2023 versus 2022. We expect there will be some adoption of new 3P products. We're going to continue to drive share of wallet of our proprietary products.

當然，約翰。我認為，當我們談論 2023 年以及我們如何考慮業務時，在我們在指南中討論的模型中，我們會說我們預計 1P/3P 組合在 2023 年與 2022 年相比將保持相對平穩。我們預計將會有一些採用新的 3P 產品。我們將繼續推動我們專有產品的錢包份額。

Now we think that there are certain initiatives that we're looking at that are not in our guidance right now or not in our models that we may or may not choose launched. That could change that mix, but that would be incremental to how we thought about the existing model.

現在我們認為，我們正在研究的某些舉措目前不在我們的指導中，或者不在我們可能會或可能不會選擇啟動的模型中。這可能會改變這種組合，但這將增加我們對現有模型的看法。

Today, the vast majority of our business is our domestic integrator business. It's over 85% of our business today. That might even grow a little bit. I think the international markets remain a little bit more challenged just with some of the issues going on in Europe and some other challenges that are there. So I do think you see our domestic partner business as an overall share of our business increase slightly in the coming year.

今天，我們的絕大部分業務是國內集成商業務。今天，它占我們業務的 85% 以上。那甚至可能會增長一點。我認為國際市場仍然面臨更多挑戰，只是歐洲正在發生的一些問題和其他一些挑戰。所以我認為你認為我們的國內合作夥伴業務在我們業務中的整體份額在來年會略有增長。

Our next question comes from Chris Snyder with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Chris Snyder。

And I appreciate all the guidance. Certainly not an easy macro to guide in, but I was just hoping for me a little bit more color on what macro assumptions underlie the guidance. Because it seems to suggest a further deterioration in the resi backdrop. Because I'm looking at Q4, and I adjust for days and the inventory headwind you guys provided, it seems to suggest about low double-digit organic growth versus the 2% to 5% guided for in '23?

我感謝所有的指導。當然不是一個容易指導的宏觀，但我只是希望我對指導背後的宏觀假設有更多的了解。因為這似乎暗示著 resi 背景進一步惡化。因為我在看第四季度，我調整了幾天和你們提供的庫存逆風，這似乎表明兩位數的有機增長率低於 23 年的 2% 到 5%？

Sure, Chris. Yes. So I think as we think about 2023, if I was going to think about components of growth, and I'll talk about roughly around the midpoint of our guidance range. 2% to 3% of that will be pricing, most of which is carryover from the pricing we already did last year. Very minimal pricing impact this year. We announced about a blended 0.5 point price change on February 1 that just took effect this week. And that's really the only pricing activity as we sit here today that we anticipate in 2023.

當然，克里斯。是的。所以我認為，當我們考慮 2023 年時，如果我要考慮增長的組成部分，我將大致談論我們指導範圍的中點。其中 2% 到 3% 將用於定價，其中大部分是我們去年已經進行的定價的結轉。今年的定價影響非常小。我們在 2 月 1 日宣布了 0.5 點的混合價格變化，該變化剛剛於本週生效。這確實是我們今天坐在這裡預計 2023 年唯一的定價活動。

We think our new local stores and the ramp-up of local stores will drive another 2% to 3% growth. The biggest headwind out there, as we talked about, is that inventory number, which is going to be around a 9% headwind, maybe 10%, maybe 8% depending upon how that destocks or where it falls out.

我們認為我們新的本地商店和本地商店的增加將推動另外 2% 至 3% 的增長。正如我們所說，最大的逆風是庫存數量，這將是 9% 左右的逆風，可能是 10%，也可能是 8%，具體取決於去庫存的方式或下降的位置。

There's a really small piece of carryover M&A from last year of about a point. And so if you do all that, what we're left with from volume is a down 2% to 3% from just a market standpoint. And we're looking at that saying, what we're hearing from our integrators is while they still have good backlogs, the backlog's a little bit lower than it used to be.

去年大約有一小部分結轉併購。因此，如果你做了所有這些，從市場的角度來看，我們剩下的交易量將下降 2% 至 3%。我們正在看這句話，我們從我們的集成商那裡聽到的是，雖然他們仍然有很好的積壓，但積壓比以前少了一點。

We believe the capacity issue that's there, but we do think there'll be some integrators at the bottom end, maybe not. Mostly the backlog dip into less than full capacity, which may drive some small decreases in the overall market. So we are assuming that the market will see some small contraction this year as housing activity and remodel activity remain a bit challenged.

我們相信存在容量問題，但我們確實認為底端會有一些集成商，也許不會。大多數情況下，積壓量低於滿負荷，這可能會導致整個市場出現一些小幅下降。因此，我們假設今年市場將出現一些小幅收縮，因為住房活動和改建活動仍然面臨一些挑戰。

I think that's probably the biggest variable out there as we think about what's going to happen for the full year. I think we feel really good about our visibility into the other numbers. And I think this sort of volume number and the market backdrop and our ability to capture share of wallet during that time frame is going to be where we really see performance can be up to how we're able to perform and then what does the market do with the macro that's out there.

我認為這可能是我們考慮全年將要發生的事情時最大的變數。我認為我們對其他數字的可見性感到非常滿意。而且我認為這種數量和市場背景以及我們在那個時間段內獲取錢包份額的能力將成為我們真正看到性能的地方，這取決於我們能夠如何執行，然後是什麼市場處理那裡的宏。

No, I appreciate all that color. And then for my follow-up, kind of maybe a longer-term one, and it's on the integrator count. It didn't really grow in '22, obviously, a very tight labor market. But what gives you guys confidence over a multiyear basis that, that can be driven higher? And does that present any risk to the longer-term growth algorithm?

不，我很欣賞那種顏色。然後對於我的後續行動，可能是一個長期的後續行動，它取決於集成商。它在 22 年並沒有真正增長，顯然，這是一個非常緊張的勞動力市場。但是，是什麼讓你們在多年的基礎上有信心可以將其推高？這會給長期增長算法帶來任何風險嗎？

This is John. It's a great question, Chris. We feel strongly that there's a significant market, tens of thousands of integrators who we don't do business with today. Many of those are in the security and commercial sector, but there's others as well who are buying smart home technology.

這是約翰。這是一個很好的問題，克里斯。我們強烈地感覺到，有一個重要的市場，數以萬計的集成商，我們今天沒有與之開展業務。其中許多人在安全和商業領域，但也有其他人在購買智能家居技術。

And I would just say, last year, our sales force was intensely focused on helping integrators find product because of the supply chain. So the notion of being able to go out and recruit new integrators was just something they didn't have time for. And second, in some areas, we were concerned about inventory availability.

我只想說，去年，我們的銷售人員非常專注於幫助集成商找到供應鏈的產品。因此，能夠走出去並招募新的集成商的想法只是他們沒有時間做的事情。其次，在某些領域，我們擔心庫存可用性。

And so I feel like our acquisition efforts were hampered a bit last year because of that. We're looking forward to getting back to normal with the acquisition programs that have worked for this company for a decade, where we're able to recruit 2,000 to 3,000 new integrators annually.

因此，我覺得去年我們的收購工作因此受到了一些阻礙。我們期待通過為這家公司工作了十年的收購計劃恢復正常，我們每年能夠招募 2,000 到 3,000 名新集成商。

I would say as we approach this year, 2023, I feel like we are focused on driving higher operating margins. The best way to do that is sell what you got to the customers you got. And that is where our biggest focus is around share of wallet.

我想說，隨著今年 2023 年的臨近，我覺得我們的重點是提高營業利潤率。做到這一點的最好方法是把你得到的東西賣給你得到的客戶。這就是我們最大的關注點是錢包份額。

As we get comfortable with the operating environment, we will then turn on the acquisition machine in a more intense manner. But we know that there are tens of thousands of integrators to attract to our business platform and our product offering.

當我們對操作環境感到舒適時，我們將以更強烈的方式打開採集機器。但我們知道，有數以萬計的集成商可以吸引到我們的業務平台和我們的產品。

Appreciate that, John.

對此表示讚賞，約翰。

A big piece of that is continuing to open local branches. Again, we couldn't fulfill inventory in all those local branches, so those were delayed to the end of last year. And we'll continue to open local branches this year to serve all our partners in the different verticals we do business with.

其中很大一部分是繼續開設當地分支機構。同樣，我們無法在所有這些當地分支機構完成庫存，因此這些分支機構被推遲到去年年底。今年我們將繼續開設當地分支機構，為我們將與之開展業務的不同垂直領域的所有合作夥伴提供服務。

Our next question comes from Adam Tindle with Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Adam Tindle 和 Raymond James。

Okay. Maybe, John, and for Mike as well. I just wanted to start with the 2023 guidance, which I appreciate, more about the cadence of the year. I'm sure we'll get questions on this tomorrow. So I think you've mentioned a mid- to high-teens decline in Q1 with an expectation to return to year-over-year growth in the back half of the year. So sort of this kind of hockey stick type of shape to the year.

好的。也許吧，約翰，邁克也是如此。我只是想從 2023 年的指導開始，我很欣賞，更多關於今年的節奏。我相信我們明天會收到關於此的問題。因此，我認為您已經提到第一季度出現中高十幾位的下降，並有望在今年下半年恢復同比增長。所以這種曲棍球棒的形狀適合今年。

Just wondered if you could maybe cover the levers to that. Any time you've got that acceleration as the year progresses, investors tend to get a little bit nervous about that expectation moving forward. So maybe you could cover the levers to that improvement as the year progresses.

只是想知道您是否可以為此提供槓桿。隨著時間的推移，任何時候你都會加速，投資者往往會對這種預期向前發展感到有點緊張。因此，隨著時間的推移，也許你可以涵蓋實現這一改進的槓桿。

Yes. No, great question, Adam. Definitely, there -- we're not going to guide the quarter specifically, but let me give you some directional numbers. I think, clearly, the biggest number we're using to predict here is this inventory in the channel and the year-over-year impacts. How did inventory come in last year? And how is it going to come out this year as we think about that year-over-year?

是的。不，很好的問題，亞當。當然，我們不會具體指導這個季度，但讓我給你一些方向性的數字。我認為，很明顯，我們在這裡用來預測的最大數字是渠道中的庫存和同比影響。去年庫存是怎麼來的？當我們逐年考慮它時，它今年會如何出現？

And so the way we're looking at it right now, our best guess is going to be about a 20% headwind in Q1, somewhere around the 20% headwind in Q2, a slight headwind, a couple of points in Q3 because, again, once we get to Q3, it was coming out in 2022, and it's going to come out at '23. So on a year-over-year comp basis, it's a less significant issue.

所以我們現在看待它的方式，我們最好的猜測是第一季度大約 20% 的逆風，第二季度大約 20% 的逆風，輕微的逆風，第三季度的幾個點，因為，再次，一旦我們到了第三季度，它就會在 2022 年問世，並且會在 23 年問世。因此，在同比比較的基礎上，這是一個不太重要的問題。

And then by the time we get to Q4, if our model is right and all of it comes out in the first 3 quarters, then by the time we get to Q4, it will be about 6% positive on a year-over-year change basis as we lap the inventory that came out this year. And our model says that it should be pretty much fully wound through by the end of Q3.

然後到第四季度時，如果我們的模型是正確的並且所有結果都在前三個季度出現，那麼到第四季度時，同比增長將達到 6% 左右隨著我們對今年公佈的庫存進行評估，我們改變了基礎。我們的模型表示，它應該在第三季度末完全恢復。

Now there's a bunch of regression analysis and science in that, and it's a forecast, so I don't want to get too tied to exactly those numbers. But that's at least the way the model is and as we think about the quarterly moves. That's by far the biggest number that's out there.

現在有一堆回歸分析和科學，它是一個預測，所以我不想過於依賴這些數字。但這至少是模型的方式以及我們考慮季度變動的方式。這是迄今為止最大的數字。

The other thing that impacts, obviously, the pricing changes we did last year were done in February and done in June, and they're going to impact much more in the first half of the year. So 3%, 4%, 5%, 6% in Q1, Q2 and much more flat impact from pricing in the back half of the year. We'll only get the benefit of this year's pricing activity.

顯然，影響我們去年所做的另一件事是在 2 月和 6 月完成的定價變化，它們將在今年上半年產生更大的影響。因此，第一季度、第二季度的 3%、4%、5%、6% 以及下半年定價的影響更為平穩。我們只會從今年的定價活動中獲益。

And then everything else is pretty much standard across the board as you think about it, but there's not a lot of variability on the other numbers. New stores ramp up pretty evenly throughout the year. The volume assumptions, there's a couple of points of difference in each quarter depending upon how we think what happened last year, what was going on with stocking levels. But generally, the rest of the numbers are pretty equivalent throughout the year.

然後，正如您所想的那樣，其他所有內容幾乎都是標準的，但其他數字並沒有太多變化。新店全年增長相當均勻。數量假設，每個季度都有幾個不同點，這取決於我們如何看待去年發生的事情，以及庫存水平的變化。但總的來說，其餘數字全年都相當。

Got it. That's helpful, Mike. And maybe if I could flip the question on instead, from a balance sheet perspective. I think as that inventory comes out, if I understand the business model correctly, that, that will actually be a tailwind to cash flow. And sorry if I missed it, but if you could maybe cover your cash flow expectations for the year, and any expectations on the progression of that would be very helpful.

知道了。這很有幫助，邁克。也許我可以從資產負債表的角度轉而討論這個問題。我認為隨著庫存的出現，如果我正確理解商業模式，那實際上將是現金流的順風。很抱歉，如果我錯過了它，但如果你能涵蓋你今年的現金流量預期，以及對這一進展的任何預期，都會非常有幫助。

Sure. We don't specifically guide cash flow, but I'll give you just some highlights and overview of where we think we'll be. Certainly, from an inventory standpoint, we ended the year with over $300 million of inventory. It's going to continue to creep up in Q1 this year as we think about Chinese New Year and just stocking for that and just the cadence of bringing product in.

當然。我們不專門指導現金流，但我會給你一些重點和我們認為我們會在哪裡的概述。當然，從庫存的角度來看，我們年底的庫存超過 3 億美元。今年第一季度它將繼續攀升，因為我們考慮農曆新年並為此備貨以及引入產品的節奏。

But our ops team has been working really hard to get that rightsized, and we've got some internal targets. But at least as we think about it and talk about externally, we think $275 million is about the right number for where we think we need to be given current demand. And we think we'll be there by the second half of the year, whether that's the end of Q3, the end of Q4 depends upon some timing, but we do see that.

但是我們的運營團隊一直在非常努力地進行調整，並且我們已經有了一些內部目標。但至少在我們考慮和對外談論時，我們認為 2.75 億美元是我們認為需要滿足當前需求的正確數字。而且我們認為我們將在今年下半年到達那裡，無論是第三季度末還是第四季度末取決於一些時間，但我們確實看到了。

So throughout the year, as we think about that inventory balance dropping by $25 million or $30 million, that will certainly be a source of cash and a tailwind to cash flow. Other than that, our cash flow, we think, will be very, very normal with our adjusted EBITDA, not very much else going on with working capital outside that inventory number. Our normal level of CapEx, we've got a couple of million dollars more left in our Lehi office relocation. We've got a couple of million dollars of work that we're doing around our IT systems and consolidation.

因此，全年，當我們考慮庫存餘額下降 2500 萬美元或 3000 萬美元時，這肯定會成為現金來源和現金流的順風。除此之外，我們認為，我們調整後的 EBITDA 的現金流量將非常非常正常，除了該庫存數量之外，營運資金不會有太多其他變化。我們的正常資本支出水平，我們在 Lehi 辦公室搬遷時還剩下幾百萬美元。我們圍繞 IT 系統和整合開展了數百萬美元的工作。

But other than that, excuse me, the normal activity that we have, with the caveat that as we always talk about, don't forget that TRA that's out there. We made our first TRA payment recently this year. That was about $11 million that was made in Q1. There's still $111 million liability on that. We don't have another payment to make until Q1 of next year, but we did pay $11 million towards the TRA in Q1 this year.

但除此之外，對不起，我們的正常活動，正如我們經常談論的那樣，請不要忘記那裡的 TRA。我們今年最近支付了第一筆 TRA 款項。第一季度的收入約為 1100 萬美元。仍有 1.11 億美元的負債。我們在明年第一季度之前沒有另一筆付款，但我們確實在今年第一季度向 TRA 支付了 1100 萬美元。

Our next question comes from Keith Hughes with Truist.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist 的 Keith Hughes。

I had a question on the destocking we talked about a lot here. Is there specific products that you think are really heavy in the channel? And then on that, how do you sort of gauge where channel inventory is? How is that actually done?

我對我們在這裡經常談論的去庫存有疑問。是否有您認為渠道中真正重磅的特定產品？然後，您如何衡量渠道庫存在哪裡？這實際上是怎麼做到的？

Yes, it's a great question, Keith. John, I'll jump on this, and then feel free to add any color if you want. I think as we talked about it last time and last quarter, and as we talked about, this was never a big issue in our channel historically, something we had not paid a lot of attention to. Our partners, 20,000 integrators out there buy product today, and they're typically installing on a job next week, next month as that job is going to completion.

是的，這是一個很好的問題，基思。約翰，我馬上開始，如果你願意，可以隨意添加任何顏色。我認為正如我們上次和上個季度所討論的那樣，正如我們所討論的那樣，從歷史上看，這在我們的頻道中從來都不是一個大問題，我們沒有給予太多關注。我們的合作夥伴，20,000 名集成商今天購買產品，他們通常會在下週、下個月安裝工作，因為該工作即將完成。

I think what we think and what we believe is as the supply chain really became challenged, as integrators and our partners found it more problematic to find products, if they can't get their hands on product, they can't complete a job, they can't get paid. And so they look for those products that had the most risk of stocking out, that had the lowest replaceability, that had the highest switching costs and said we're going to start thinking about stocking up on them.

我認為我們的想法和我們所相信的是，隨著供應鏈真正受到挑戰，因為集成商和我們的合作夥伴發現尋找產品更加困難，如果他們無法獲得產品，他們就無法完成工作，他們得不到報酬。因此，他們尋找那些缺貨風險最大、可替換性最低、轉換成本最高的產品，並表示我們將開始考慮對它們進行備貨。

So things like control systems, things like your network system, you OvrC, your remote management system products are the ones that are there. And so the way we sized it last time was we went out, we did a bunch of survey work with our partners and asked them how much has your inventory grown. We also look very specifically at our control products and look at how many controller shipments do we have versus how many were installed and took that differential and tried to extrapolate. So that's where we came up with the numbers we talked about last time.

因此，諸如控制系統、網絡系統、OvrC、遠程管理系統產品之類的東西就在那裡。因此，我們上次調整規模的方式是出去，我們與合作夥伴進行了一系列調查，並詢問他們您的庫存增長了多少。我們還非常具體地查看了我們的控制產品，並查看了我們有多少控制器出貨量與安裝了多少控制器，並採用了這種差異並試圖進行推斷。這就是我們得出上次討論的數字的地方。

But knowing the magnitude of this issue and trying to be more scientific about it, our product team and our ops teams went hand in hand and started doing a bunch of really good work. And whenever we ship a product that is OvrC-enabled, when that box leaves our warehouse, we're doing an outbound scan on that product for warranty purposes and to record that it went out the door.

但是，我們的產品團隊和運營團隊了解這個問題的嚴重性並試圖對其進行更科學的處理，並攜手並進，開始做很多非常好的工作。每當我們運送啟用 OvrC 的產品時，當那個盒子離開我們的倉庫時，我們就會對該產品進行出站掃描以進行保修，並記錄它已出庫。

Tying that together with the data that comes from OvrC, we know when that exact box and SKU comes online for the first time, and we can measure that time frame. And all that can be measured now, we can go back and look historically. And so we asked our teams to go back and look and say, "Wait, what was the average time between when a product left our warehouse and it got installed".

將其與來自 OvrC 的數據結合在一起，我們知道確切的盒子和 SKU 何時首次上線，並且我們可以衡量該時間範圍。所有現在可以衡量的，我們都可以回頭看看歷史。因此，我們要求我們的團隊回頭看看並說，“等等，從產品離開我們的倉庫到安裝的平均時間是多少”。

Now again, this only works for products that come online that do have that connectivity. So we went back and looked at those products, again, primarily our controllers, our networking, our IP power, our surveillance products and measured that time frame. We will then see how did that time frame expand. And you can see it is starting to expand about the middle of 2021, and it kept expanding all the way up to the middle of 2022. And now we can see that curve coming down and the time frame contracting.

再一次，這僅適用於具有該連接性的上線產品。所以我們回過頭來看那些產品，主要是我們的控制器、我們的網絡、我們的 IP 能力、我們的監控產品，並測量了那個時間範圍。然後我們將看到該時間範圍是如何擴展的。你可以看到它在 2021 年年中左右開始擴張，並且一直擴張到 2022 年年中。現在我們可以看到曲線下降，時間框架縮短。

So we're using that, and that's where we come up with that regression to project what's going to happen in 2023. I can't guarantee you it's all going to come out. We still have a thought that maybe some of it stays there. But those are the main products. In addition to those proprietary products, we then sort of say what other products that don't connect or that are third-party products that might also be there?

所以我們正在使用它，這就是我們提出回歸來預測 2023 年將要發生的事情的地方。我不能向你保證這一切都會出來。我們仍然有一個想法，也許其中一些會留在那裡。但那些是主要產品。除了那些專有產品之外，我們還可以說還有哪些其他產品無法連接或可能存在的第三方產品？

So things like AVRs were really tough last year. We know some of the streaming audio products were very short of stock last year. And so we take the specific data that we have around our connected products, we put some extrapolation on how we think other products attach to that to come up with the overall numbers that we're talking about.

所以去年像 AVR 這樣的事情真的很艱難。我們知道一些流媒體音頻產品去年非常缺貨。因此，我們獲取了我們所擁有的有關我們連接產品的特定數據，我們對我們認為其他產品如何附加到這些數據進行了一些推斷，以得出我們正在談論的總體數字。

Okay. And just one final thing. You had mentioned the impact in the first and second quarter. Is it net of 20%? Or was it 20 million? It was wasn't clear.

好的。最後一件事。你提到了第一季度和第二季度的影響。是否扣除 20%？還是2000萬？目前還不清楚。

What's interesting is, it's about the same thing.

有趣的是，它是關於同一件事的。

I'm looking at the numbers, yes, I get it, but that's one, Mike. Okay.

我在看數字，是的，我明白了，但就是這樣，邁克。好的。

Yes. Okay. It should be around $20 million, plus or minus, it could be $15 million to $25 million. Again, we're doing some analysis here, but $15 million to $25 million in each of the first 3 quarters.

是的。好的。它應該在 2000 萬美元左右，加上或減去，可能是 1500 萬到 2500 萬美元。同樣，我們在這裡做一些分析，但前三個季度的每個季度都有 1500 萬到 2500 萬美元。

But on a year-over-year basis standpoint, in Q1 and Q2, because inventory was coming in last year and coming out this year, the overall year-over-year change is going to be 18%, 19%, 20% each quarter. By the time we get to Q3, while it's still going to be $15 million or $20 million coming out, the year-over-year impact will be basically flat because that's the same thing that came out in 2022.

但從同比的角度來看，在第一季度和第二季度，由於庫存是去年進來的，今年又出來了，所以總體同比變化將分別為 18%、19%、20%四分之一。到第三季度時，雖然仍將有 1500 萬或 2000 萬美元流出，但同比影響將基本持平，因為這與 2022 年出現的情況相同。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Brian Ruttenbur with Imperial Capital.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Imperial Capital 的 Brian Ruttenbur。

I just wanted to follow up on a couple of questions. First of all, cash. So you're at $21 million and you anticipate -- I think that's where you ended the year, and that was down from third quarter. Can you anticipate an additional drop in first quarter and then a recovery in second quarter, third quarter? Is that correct? Just trying to understand the cash.

我只想跟進幾個問題。首先，現金。所以你的收入是 2100 萬美元，你預計——我認為這是你今年年底的收入，而且比第三季度有所下降。你能預計第一季度會進一步下降，然後第二季度、第三季度會復蘇嗎？那是對的嗎？只是想了解現金。

Yes, that's right, Brian. We don't think about cash because we have a revolver. So we try to maintain our cash balance at the lowest minimal cash balance we need and then use the revolver appropriately. And so we really think about it on that basis.

是的，沒錯，布賴恩。我們不考慮現金，因為我們有左輪手槍。因此，我們盡量將我們的現金餘額維持在我們需要的最低最低現金餘額，然後適當地使用左輪手槍。所以我們真的是在這個基礎上考慮的。

But yes, if you think about total liquidity, that's absolutely right from a timing standpoint. We ended with $21 million of cash. We had a revolver draw of about $12 million at the end of the year. That's going to be used somewhat in Q1, and then it will start recovering in Q2. So our low point of liquidity we look at in models should be the end of Q1.

但是，是的，如果你考慮總流動性，從時間的角度來看，這是絕對正確的。我們最終獲得了 2100 萬美元的現金。到年底，我們的左輪手槍抽獎約為 1200 萬美元。這將在第一季度有所使用，然後它將在第二季度開始恢復。因此，我們在模型中看到的流動性低點應該是第一季度末。

Okay. And then one other question about revenue. You gave us very good guidance on first quarter. Second quarter will be down still dramatically year-over-year, pretty strong, maybe not as much on a year-over-year basis as first quarter. And then should third quarter be more of a breakeven on a year-over-year basis and then fourth quarter be slightly positive on a year-over-year basis? So I'm just trying to get the flow here.

好的。然後是關於收入的另一個問題。你在第一季度給了我們很好的指導。第二季度仍將同比大幅下降，相當強勁，但同比下降幅度可能不如第一季度。那麼第三季度是否應該在同比基礎上更多地實現盈虧平衡，然後第四季度在同比基礎上略微為正？所以我只是想在這裡獲得流量。

It's like you were reading off a cheat sheet there, Brian. That was very good. Yes. So second quarter won't be as bad as first quarter. Again, the impacts in the channel will still happen. But given some other things that are out there from a volume last year, from some volume expectations this year, some pricing activities last year and this year, it won't be as bad in Q2 as Q1, around flat in Q3 and then positive in Q4.

布萊恩，這就像你在讀備忘單。那很好。是的。所以第二季度不會像第一季度那麼糟糕。同樣，通道中的影響仍然會發生。但考慮到去年的銷量、今年的一些銷量預期、去年和今年的一些定價活動，第二季度的情況不會像第一季度那樣糟糕，第三季度大致持平，然後為正在第四季度。

Thank you. At this time, this concludes our Q&A session. I'd now like to turn the call back over to Mr. Heyman for his closing remarks.

謝謝。至此，我們的問答環節到此結束。我現在想將電話轉回給海曼先生，讓他發表結束語。

Thanks, Josh, and thanks again to everybody for joining us today. 2022 was, in many ways, unprecedented in terms of kind of an operating environment for many of us. And I just want to thank our incredible team at Snap One for their efforts and their efforts, specifically, in delivering for our partners who continue to do great work out there in the field. So thanks again, and I'll turn it back to you, Josh.

謝謝，Josh，再次感謝大家今天加入我們。就我們許多人的運營環境而言，2022 年在很多方面都是前所未有的。我只想感謝我們在 Snap One 的令人難以置信的團隊所做的努力和他們的努力，特別是在為我們的合作夥伴提供服務方面，他們繼續在該領域做出出色的工作。再次感謝，我會把它還給你，喬什。

Thank you for joining us today for Snap One's Fiscal Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call. You may now disconnect.

感謝您今天加入我們參加 Snap One 第四季度和 2022 年全年收益電話會議。您現在可以斷開連接。