Smith & Nephew PLC (SNN) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to the Smith & Nephew Q4 and full year 2024 Results Presentation. I'm Deepak Nath, I'm the Chief Executive Officer; and joining me is our Chief Financial Officer, John Rogers.

早上好，歡迎參加史密斯和侄子 2024 年第四季和全年業績報告。我是 Deepak Nath，我是執行長；和我一起出席的是我們的財務長約翰·羅傑斯 (John Rogers)。

Looking at our full year numbers, I'm pleased to be able to report that the 12-point plant is delivering financial outcomes. Our operational and commercial actions have combined with the high cadence of innovation to produce consistently higher growth than in the past.

縱觀我們的全年數據，我很高興地報告，12 點工廠正在取得財務成果。我們的營運和商業行動與高節奏的創新相結合，持續實現比過去更高的成長。

Margin expansion is beginning to follow driven by both operating leverage and productivity improvements, which are becoming more visible as macro headwinds ease. Better working capital discipline and asset utilization also means that our profitability is coming with higher cash generation.

在營運槓桿和生產力提高的推動下，利潤率開始擴大，隨著宏觀逆風的緩解，利潤率變得越來越明顯。更好的營運資本紀律和資產利用率也意味著我們的獲利能力將隨著更高的現金產生而來。

Overall, for 2024, we delivered 60 bps of margin expansion, 95% cash conversion which is ahead of our target and higher ROIC 1.4%. The fourth quarter was a good finish to the year with 8.3% underlying growth. Volumes were solid across most regions and the company is now set up operationally and commercially to benefit from better demand as we saw at the end of the quarter.

總體而言，到 2024 年，我們的利潤率將擴大 60 個基點，現金轉換率將達到 95%，這超出了我們的目標，並且 ROIC 將提高 1.4%。第四季基本成長率達到 8.3%，為今年畫下了圓滿的句點。大多數地區的銷售都很穩定，目前公司已做好營運和商業準備，將從我們在本季末看到的更好的需求中受益。

But also meant we realized more of a benefit to our surgical businesses from the two extra trading days that we expected to see during the holiday season. Importantly, this growth did not depend on improvement in China, which increased as a headwind just as we indicated with our Q3 trading update.

但也意味著，我們預計假期期間將有兩天額外的交易日，這將為我們的外科手術業務帶來更多好處。重要的是，這種成長並不依賴中國經濟的改善，正如我們在第三季交易更新中所指出的那樣，中國經濟的改善帶來了阻力。

Overall, China cost 280 basis points of group growth in Q4. We're now poised to deliver a further step-up in returns in 2025. Our outlook is unchanged. We expect revenue growth of around 5% and significant trading margin expansion to between 19% and 20%. This will come from continued operating leverage and as the cost savings from the optimization of our manufacturing network begin to benefit the P&L.

總體而言，中國第四季的集團成長率下降了 280 個基點。我們現在準備在 2025 年進一步提高回報。我們的展望沒有改變。我們預計營收將成長 5% 左右，交易利潤率將大幅擴大至 19% 至 20% 之間。這將來自持續的經營槓桿，並且隨著我們製造網路優化所帶來的成本節約開始使損益表受益。

In the early years of the 12-point plan, savings primarily went to offsetting macro headwinds. From here, higher savings and reduced headwinds mean we can deliver meaningful margin expansion. And I want to emphasize that 2025 is not the endpoint. We expect continued margin accretion in '26 and in '27 with many of the components of delivery that are already in place. I'll come back to these themes.

在十二點計畫實施的初期，節省的資金主要用於抵銷宏觀不利因素。從這裡開始，更高的儲蓄和減少的阻力意味著我們可以實現有意義的利潤擴張。我想強調的是，2025年並不是終點。我們預計，隨著許多交付要素的到位，2026 年和 2027 年的利潤率將持續成長。我會回到這些主題。

So this next slide, we've been very familiar to you by now, but that reflects how fully the 12-point plan has been embedded in Smith & Nephew. The plan is how we've been improving performance, both for individual teams and for the company as a whole.

因此，下一張幻燈片，我們現在對你們來說已經非常熟悉了，但它反映了 12 點計劃在 Smith & Nephew 的嵌入程度。該計劃是我們如何提高單一團隊和整個公司的績效的。

It also represents a more rigorous way of working that will continue beyond the specific initiatives. We're now at a point where the outcomes are becoming more visible. So before we get into the quarter's financials, I'd like to set out some of our key achievements of the plan.

這也代表了一種更嚴謹的工作方式，並將在具體舉措之後繼續延續。我們現在正處於成果越來越明顯的階段。因此，在我們討論本季的財務狀況之前，我想先介紹一下該計劃的一些主要成就。

Firstly, we delivered a truly comprehensive program. The 12-point plan initiatives have covered all aspects of the business with KPIs and targets that have been defined for each. We've also moved the organization to a global business unit model, further embedding the culture of accountability and helping us drive better commercial execution at pace.

首先，我們提供了一個真正全面的計劃。12 點計畫舉措涵蓋了業務的各個方面，並為每個方面定義了 KPI 和目標。我們還將組織轉變為全球業務部門模式，進一步嵌入問責文化，並幫助我們快速推動更好的商業執行。

While there's still more to do, we're increasingly seeing the financial benefits come through across revenue, profitability, return on capital and cash flow. On revenue, we've delivered four consecutive years of growth above our historical average.

雖然還有很多工作要做，但我們越來越常看到財務效益體現在收入、獲利能力、資本回報率和現金流方面。在收入方面，我們已經連續四年實現了高於歷史平均的成長。

That's backed up both by the operational improvements of the plan and also successive waves of innovation across our portfolio. On profitability, we've delivered 80 basis points of trading margin expansion since 2022. We even in the face of some profound external headwinds, and we're set to deliver a step-up in 2025 and in the years beyond.

這得益於計劃的營運改進以及我們投資組合中連續不斷的創新浪潮。在獲利能力方面，自 2022 年以來，我們的交易保證金已擴大 80 個基點。即使面臨一些嚴重的外部阻力，我們也將在 2025 年及以後實現更大進步。

On returns, our ROIC is rising and should return to above our cost of capital in 2025. Well, on cash, inventory days are down. Restructuring costs are down and free cash flow was up to more than $0.5 billion in 2024. We'll go into each of these in turn, starting with revenue.

在回報方面，我們的投資報酬率正在上升，預計到 2025 年將恢復到資本成本之上。嗯，就現金而言，庫存天數下降了。重組成本下降，自由現金流到 2024 年將增加至 5 億美元以上。我們將從收入開始，逐一討論這些問題。

If I look back to 2019 and before, the company averaged around 3% underlying growth. That was largely steady over time, but we are growing below our markets, and there was a clear opportunity if we could take that to a different level.

如果回顧 2019 年及之前，該公司的平均潛在成長率約為 3%。隨著時間的推移，這一水平基本上保持穩定，但我們的成長速度低於市場水平，如果我們能夠將其提升到不同的水平，那麼顯然有機會。

Our priority was to reposition Smith & Nephew as a consistently higher growth business with the ability to drive leverage through the P&L. As I mentioned, 2024 was a fourth straight year of growth above that historical average.

我們的首要任務是將史密斯和侄子公司重新定位為持續高速成長的企業，並能夠透過損益表來推動槓桿作用。正如我所提到的，2024 年是連續第四年實現高於歷史平均的成長。

We've had to deal with some significant headwinds, such as supply chain challenges, our recon business, taking time to improve and VBP in our China Recon and joint repair businesses. Even with all of that, we've delivered a clear acceleration, and we expect that to continue in 2020.

我們必須應對一些重大阻力，例如供應鏈挑戰、我們的偵察業務、花時間改進以及中國偵察和聯合修復業務的 VBP。即使如此，我們仍然實現了明顯的加速，我們預計這種勢頭將在 2020 年繼續保持。

And with our guidance of around 5% revenue growth. This step change has been underpinned by improvements from the 12-point plan. Firstly, we fixed the foundations of product and capital supply.

我們預計收入成長率約為 5%。這一重大變化以 12 點計劃的改進為基礎。一是夯實產品和資金供給基礎。

Availability across our portfolio was at or above our target levels in 2024, having been below industry standards at the start of the plan. We've been able to bring down overdue orders by around 90% and since 2022, and we're better placed to support our existing customers and pursue new business.

我們投資組合的可用性在計劃開始時低於行業標準，但在 2024 年達到或超過了我們的目標水平。自 2022 年以來，我們已將逾期訂單減少了約 90%，並且能夠更好地支援現有客戶並開展新業務。

We're also showing better commercial execution. Sports Medicine and Moon had already moved to consistent good delivery. When I get into detail of the quarter, you'll see that our US recon business has also shown progressive improvement as we've gone through 2024 and is on track to be in line with the market by the end of 2025. And that's in line with our target.

我們也展現了更好的商業執行力。運動醫學和 Moon 已轉向持續良好的交付。當我詳細介紹本季時，您會發現我們的美國偵察業務在 2024 年也顯示出逐步改善，並有望在 2025 年底與市場保持一致。這符合我們的目標。

Also in Orthopedics, Trauma and Extremities has been transformed into a high-growth platform through execution on key launches across the EVO plating system at Aetos Shoulder. Innovation more broadly remains a key component of our growth story.

此外，在骨科領域，創傷和四肢部門也透過執行 Aetos Shoulder 的 EVO 鋼板系統的關鍵發布，轉變為高成長平台。更廣泛地說，創新仍然是我們成長故事的關鍵組成部分。

In 2024, more than 60% of revenue growth came from products launched in the last five years. That means for consecutive years, around 3.5% of group growth have come from innovation. New products alone are taking us to above our historical growth, and we're producing successive waves of technology that keep coming over multiple years.

2024年，超過60%的營收成長來自過去五年推出的產品。這意味著連續幾年，集團約3.5%的成長來自於創新。僅新產品就使我們超越了歷史成長，並且我們正在多年來不斷推出一波又一波的技術浪潮。

First, we continue to add further legs of value to existing platforms, such as Cori and Regeneten. For Cori, we've already added 10 new features since 2022. The combination of unique functionality and the flexibility to support a range of surgeon preferences have helped us drive adoption with the installed base now exceeding 1,000 units.

首先，我們繼續為現有平台（例如 Cori 和 Regeneten）增加更多價值。對於 Cori，自 2022 年以來我們已經添加了 10 個新功能。獨特的功能和支援一系列外科醫生偏好的靈活性相結合，幫助我們推動了採用，目前安裝基數已超過 1,000 台。

We're now building towards a fully enabled hip platform on CORI with 3D navigation as the next element to come through. Expansion to shoulder replacement is a further priority where the anatomy of the shoulder is particularly well suited to Cori's handheld milling. Preop planning with choreograph will be the first step to come in 2025.

我們現在正在 CORI 上建立一個功能齊全的髖關節平台，3D 導航是下一個要實現的元素。擴展到肩部置換是另一個優先事項，因為肩部的解剖結構特別適合 Cori 的手持銑削。2025 年將踏出第一步，進行術前規劃與編排。

For Regeneten, the new tender repair applications are already contributing, and we believe more than 10% of use is now outside of rotator cuff. We're still looking to bring this technology to more groups of patients, and we have recently received 510(k) clearance for use in extra-articular ligament repair.

對於 Regeneten 來說，新的疼痛修復應用已經做出了貢獻，我們相信現在超過 10% 的使用是在肩袖之外。我們仍在尋求將這項技術推廣給更多的患者群體，我們最近已獲得 510(k) 許可，可用於關節外韌帶修復。

Second, another wave of launch, launches is already underway. At Shoulder is a product we're very excited about. We've launched a short stem implant and plan to build out a complete platform. We have a stemless implant that's targeted for 2025, and I've already mentioned our work to bring shoulder replacement to Cori.

第二，新一輪的發布已經在進行中。At Shoulder 是一款讓我們非常興奮的產品。我們已經推出了短柄植入物併計劃建立一個完整的平台。我們有一種無柄植入物，目標是在 2025 年推出，我已經提到我們為 Cori 帶來肩關節置換術的工作。

We've also added Catalyst STEM in the third quarter of 2024. And this is a new shorter stem hip system optimized for the direct anterior approach, which represents around half of the US market, growing double digit. Early utilization has been running ahead of our plans with excellent customer feedback so far. You'll also see a further wave beginning to appear in 2025.

我們也在 2024 年第三季增加了 Catalyst STEM。這是一種針對直接前入路進行了優化的新型短柄髖關節系統，佔據了美國市場的約一半，並且呈現兩位數成長。到目前為止，早期利用率已經超出了我們的計劃，並且獲得了客戶的良好回饋。您還將看到 2025 年開始出現另一波浪潮。

At our Capital Markets Day just over a year ago, we talked about a number of exciting new platforms, including cross-business unit, digital capability. We're planning to show our first next-generation digital product at AAOS in San Diego, which will add video-based navigation to the arthroscopic tower and bring the more consistent patient outcomes and more efficient decision-making that we've seen before in orthopedics.

在一年多前的資本市場日上，我們討論了許多令人興奮的新平台，包括跨業務部門、數位化能力。我們計劃在聖地牙哥的 AAOS 上展示我們的第一款下一代數位產品，它將為關節鏡塔添加基於視訊的導航，並帶來我們以前在骨科領域見過的更一致的患者結果和更高效的決策。

We're also developing a new generation of IM nails in trauma. This is a $1.3 billion category globally meaning we already have a good presence with [Intertain] TriGen. We're working on both tibial and hip fracture products, and we'll come back with more detail as we move towards launches.

我們也正在開發新一代創傷用IM釘。這是一個價值 13 億美元的全球類別，這意味著我們與 [Intertain] TriGen 已經佔據了良好的市場份額。我們正在研發脛骨和髖部骨折產品，在產品發布前我們會提供更多細節。

At the same time, we've significantly reshaped our company, both in our organizational structures and our cost base. In '23, we began the realignment of our commercial model from franchises and regions to global commercial business units with verticalized commercial teams for each of orthopedics, sports medicine, E&T and mood.

同時，我們對公司進行了重大重塑，包括組織結構和成本基礎。2023 年，我們開始重新調整商業模式，從特許經營和地區模式轉變為全球商業業務部門，為骨科、運動醫學、E&T 和情緒等各個領域設立垂直商業團隊。

I believe this is a better way of doing business. It drives greater accountability, faster decision-making and execution and increased customer focus in every area of our portfolio. We're now positioned to capture that at Smith & Nephew with a single point of leadership for upstream and downstream marketing and sales. better alignment across regions and countries and dedicated presidents with full global P&L responsibility.

我相信這是更好的經營方式。它推動我們投資組合中每個領域的責任感更強、決策和執行更快、客戶關注度更高。現在，我們已做好準備，在史密斯和侄子公司 (Smith & Nephew) 內透過單一領導點來掌控上游和下游的營銷和銷售。更能協調各地區和國家之間的關係，並任命專職總裁全面負責全球損益。

We've been operating in this structure for a year now and have continued to enhance accountability by fully allocating attributable costs. John will give examples of what we're already seeing from these changes, and I'm confident that the benefits will continue to accumulate. A second major change is how we've addressed the cost base.

我們已經按照這種結構運作了一年，並透過充分分配可歸屬成本不斷加強問責制。約翰將舉例說明我們已經看到的這些變化，我相信這些變化帶來的好處將會不斷累積。第二個重大變化是我們如何處理成本基礎。

We started with an initial program of $200 million of savings at the beginning of the 12-point plan. In '24, we built on that by applying a zero-based budgeting approach to identify further opportunities. Total gross cost savings are now expected to be between $325 million and $375 million, backed by a comprehensive and detailed set of plans across 40 different initiatives.

我們在 12 點計劃開始時就制定了一項節省 2 億美元的初步計劃。24 年，我們在此基礎上採用零基預算方法來尋找更多機會。目前預計總成本節省將在 3.25 億美元至 3.75 億美元之間，並有涵蓋 40 個不同舉措的全面而詳細的計劃作為後盾。

The largest chunk is from manufacturing and procurement, but there are savings really right across all parts of the business. We've already made substantial cost savings since 2022 of around 410 basis points. Much of it was needed just to offset external headwinds, which were either greater than expected at the start of the plan, or in the case of sports VBP, not known at all.

最大的一塊是來自製造和採購，但實際上業務的各個部分都有節省。自 2022 年以來，我們已經節省了約 410 個基點的成本。其中大部分資金僅用於抵消外部阻力，這些阻力要么比計劃開始時預期的要大，要么在體育 VBP 的情況下根本未知。

In particular, we faced above normal inflation that we were not entirely able to offset through leverage even with the higher level of revenue growth that we delivered throughout. However, our intense focus on costs has enabled us to still increase our profitability.

特別是，我們面臨著高於正常水平的通貨膨脹，即使我們始終實現了更高的收入成長，我們也無法完全透過槓桿來抵消這項通貨膨脹。然而，我們對成本的高度關注使我們仍然能夠提高獲利能力。

In total, we faced almost 700 basis points of headwinds and still delivered 80 basis points of trading margin expansion since 2022. 2025 is a key year of delivery, when we should see the more significant margin step-up that we've been working towards. The elements of how we do that are largely in place with a further increase in cost saving and inflation naturally offset by growth leverage.

總體而言，我們面臨近 700 個基點的逆風，但自 2022 年以來仍實現了 80 個基點的交易保證金擴張。 2025 年是交付的關鍵一年，屆時我們應該會看到我們一直在努力實現的更顯著的保證金提升。我們實現這一目標的要素已基本到位，成本節約和通貨膨脹的進一步增加自然會被成長槓桿所抵消。

On costs, that includes the closure of four orthopedics facilities that will start to benefit the P&L in the second half of this year. We've also reduced our headcount by around 9% overall, with a significant portion coming in late 2024.

在成本方面，包括關閉四家骨科診所，這將在今年下半年開始為損益帶來好處。我們的員工總數也減少了約 9%，其中很大一部分將在 2024 年底減少。

So again, flowing through to the P&L this year. Inflation headwinds are also less impactful than in the early years of the plan with the net of inflation and leverage being broadly neutral in '24 and expect it to be in balance again in 2025. And importantly, that is not the endpoint.

因此，再次流向今年的損益表。通膨逆風的影響也小於計畫初期，2024 年通膨和槓桿淨值基本上保持中性，預計 2025 年將再次達到平衡。重要的是，這不是終點。

We're well positioned for further expansion beyond 2025, enabled by better aligned supply and demand, capacity reductions through our -- coming through in our manufacturing network and the timing of lower costs as they pass through inventory and reach our P&L.

透過更好地平衡供需、透過我們的製造網絡減少產能以及降低成本的時機，我們已經為 2025 年以後的進一步擴張做好了準備。

Another important set of achievements is around our cash generation and returns profile, which is returning to a much healthier position. John will take you through the details, but overall, we're seeing clear improvement across multiple metrics where we've had long-standing challenges and there's still more to come in 2025.

另一個重要的成就是我們的現金創造和回報狀況，正在恢復到更健康的狀態。約翰將向您介紹細節，但總體而言，我們在多個指標上都看到了明顯的改善，而這些指標是我們長期面臨的挑戰，而且 2025 年還會有更多挑戰。

I'll now move on to the detail of the fourth quarter before passing on to John to cover our full year financials. Revenue was $1.6 billion with 8.3% underlying growth with 7.8% reported growth after a 50 basis point headwind from foreign exchange. As I mentioned, these growth rates reflect a strong December and include the benefit of two additional trading days.

現在我將轉到第四季度的細節，然後再交給約翰來介紹我們的全年財務狀況。營收為 16 億美元，潛在成長率為 8.3%，在受到外匯 50 個基點的不利影響後，報告成長率為 7.8%。正如我所提到的，這些成長率反映了 12 月的強勁表現，並且包括了兩個額外交易日的好處。

The overall acceleration was consistent across our business units, which all grew faster than in the first nine months of the year. Looking by region, the US was particularly strong with 11.9% growth in the quarter, while other established markets grew by 8.2%. The 2.3% decline in emerging markets, primarily reflected the continued headwinds in China across both Recon and Sports Medicine Joint Repair.

我們各業務部門的整體加速發展趨勢一致，所有部門的成長速度都快於今年前九個月。從地區來看，美國表現尤為強勁，本季成長 11.9%，而其他成熟市場則成長 8.2%。新興市場下降 2.3%，主要反映了中國在重建和運動醫學關節修復領域持續面臨的阻力。

For the business units, I'll start with Orthopaedics, which grew at 6% in the quarter and 8.1% excluding China. Our priority has been improving performance of US recon and it's good to see that growth again improved sequentially in the quarter. Two extra trading days helped the reported numbers. But if you normalize for that by looking at average daily sales, growth still accelerated over Q3.

對於業務部門，我將從骨科開始，本季成長了 6%，不包括中國則成長了 8.1%。我們的首要任務是提高美國偵察的表現，很高興看到本季的成長再次環比改善。兩個額外的交易日對報告的數據有所幫助。但如果透過查看平均每日銷售額來將其標準化，則第三季的成長仍然加速。

OUS recon growth reflects the expected slow quarter in China. Our distribution partners have continued to reduce their holdings of implants following slow end customer demand earlier in the year. Inventory in the channel has come down significantly, but is not yet at normalized levels.

OUS 偵察成長反映了中國預計的一個季度的放緩。由於今年稍早終端客戶需求放緩，我們的分銷合作夥伴繼續減少植入物的持有量。渠道庫存已大幅下降，但尚未達到正常水準。

So as we indicated in November, the largely paused ordering is likely to continue through the first quarter of '25. Excluding China, our OUS growth was much healthier at around points higher than in knees and 6 points higher in hips. Other recon grew 23.9% driven by robotics sales. Cori continues to stand out for its flexibility and broad functionality and adoption is progressing well.

因此，正如我們在 11 月指出的那樣，大部分暫停的訂單可能會持續到 2025 年第一季。除中國外，我們的 OUS 成長狀況更健康，比膝關節成長高出約 10 個百分點，比臀關節成長高出 6 個百分點。在機器人銷售的推動下，其他偵察業務成長了 23.9%。Cori 繼續以其靈活性和廣泛的功能脫穎而出，並且採用進展順利。

We had a record number of new core replacements in the quarter and our global robots installed base, robotics installed base was over 1,000 systems by year end. As you know, our reporting practice in recon and robotics has been to recognize all of robotics capital services and consumables under other recon.

本季度，我們的新核心替換數量創下了紀錄，到年底，我們的全球機器人安裝基數、機器人安裝基數已超過 1,000 個系統。如您所知，我們在偵察和機器人領域的報告實踐一直是識別其他偵察下的所有機器人資本服務和消耗品。

During 2025, we'll change this to be more in line with our orthopedics peers. Robotics consumables will move to being recorded under the procedure where they're used. Capital and services revenue will remain as part of the other.

到 2025 年，我們將進行改變，以便與骨科同行更加保持一致。機器人耗材將根據其使用程序進行記錄。資本和服務收入將保留為另一部分。

There's some work to do first, but the change -- this change will increase the comparability of both our implants and our other revenue growth. Trauma and Extremities grew 9.5%, which is a return to the segment's recent stronger growth profile after a slow Q3.

首先需要做一些工作，但改變——這種改變將提高我們的植入物和其他收入成長的可比性。創傷和四肢疾病增長了 9.5%，這是該領域在經歷了第三季度的緩慢增長之後，恢復到近期更強勁的增長態勢。

The EVOS plating system continues to be the primary growth driver, and there's an increasing contribution from the ramp of the Aetos shoulder, which although still at an early stage, provided around a quarter of the overall growth.

EVOS 電鍍系統繼續成為主要的成長動力，Aetos 肩部坡道的貢獻也越來越大，儘管仍處於早期階段，但提供了整體成長的約四分之一。

I'll take a moment to look more closely at US recon growth. Acceleration in consecutive quarters is what we said we expected with improved product availability and commercial execution under the 12-point plan. The sequence of underlying growth rates is affected by trading dates with two more days in Q4 '24 than in the prior year quarter, one more in Q2 and one fewer in Q1. The slide shows the growth in average daily sales as a way of adjusting for these trading day effects.

我將花一點時間來更仔細地觀察美國偵察的成長情況。我們表示，隨著 12 點計畫下產品可用性和商業執行力的提高，連續幾季的成長速度符合我們的預期。基礎成長率的順序受到交易日的影響，2024 年第四季的交易日比去年同期多兩天，第二季多一天，第一季少一天。幻燈片顯示了平均每日銷售額的成長，以此來調整這些交易日的影響。

There are two points I'd like to highlight. Firstly, well, the curve flattens a little, there's still clear sequential improvement in both US knees and hips. Secondly, these average daily sales growth rates are more representative measure for how the business exited 2024 compared to the unadjusted growth rates.

我想強調兩點。首先，曲線稍微趨於平緩，美國的膝蓋和臀部仍然有明顯的連續改善。其次，與未調整的成長率相比，這些平均每日銷售額成長率更能代表企業在 2024 年的退出情況。

We're therefore using them as a starting point for thinking about the beginning of 2025. When both Q1 and Q2 will have one fewer trading day. than in 2024. Moving on to Sports Medicine and ENT, which grew at 7.8%. The segment as a whole continues to grow well and consistent performance over several years means sports medicine now has a level of sales comparable to our Recon and robotics business.

因此，我們將它們作為思考 2025 年初的起點。當 Q1 和 Q2 的交易日都減少一個。比 2024 年還要高。運動醫學和耳鼻喉科的成長率為 7.8%。該領域整體持續良好成長，多年來表現穩定，這意味著運動醫學目前的銷售水準與我們的偵察和機器人業務相當。

Joint Repair grew 5.3% overall and 15.9% and executing China, with a more than 10 percentage point headwind from the impact of VBP. We will lap those price reductions in the middle of 2025. In the rest of the world, we had a particularly strong finish in the US, probably benefiting from the end of year co-pay effects. REGENETEN remains a key driver with strong double-digit growth seven years into our ownership. The broader segment is also starting to see a contribution for our developing foot and ankle business.

聯合修復業務整體成長 5.3%，其中中國業務成長 15.9%，VBP 的影響力使其成長了 10 個百分點以上。我們將在 2025 年中期實現這些降價。在世界其他地區，我們在美國取得了特別強勁的業績，這可能得益於年底共同支付效應。我們擁有 REGENETEN 七年來一直保持著強勁的兩位數成長，仍然是公司的主要推動力。更廣泛的領域也開始看到我們正在發展的足踝業務的貢獻。

This is an attractive new category for us, and one is closer in scale to hit prepare than to the larger shoulder or knee category, it leverages our existing sports medicine commercial organization and is synergistic with some of our specialist strong products.

對我們來說，這是一個很有吸引力的新類別，其規模比肩部或膝蓋類別更接近打擊準備，它利用了我們現有的運動醫學商業組織，並且與我們的一些專業強項產品具有協同作用。

Arthroscopic Enabling Technologies grew 8.5%, with growth across Altroscopic Tower and continued strong double-digit growth from wearable [Facil.] However, we anticipate a year of slower growth for AET in 2025. And A China VBP process on mechanical resection blades and COBLATION ones is expected and likely to take effect in the second half of '25.

關節鏡使能技術成長了 8.5%，其中關節鏡塔實現了成長，穿戴式裝置繼續保持強勁的兩位數成長。然而，我們預期 2025 年關節鏡使能技術的成長速度將放緩。預計中國將在機械切除刀片和 COBLATION 刀片方面實施 VBP 流程，並可能在 2025 年下半年生效。

We expect a 25% sales headwind of around $25 million, including both the direct price impact and expected channel adjustments ahead of that implementation. This means that while it will be noticeable in AET it should be a smaller factor at group level than the joint repair process and is reflected in the guidance that John will set out in a moment.

我們預計銷售額將下降 25%，約 2,500 萬美元，其中包括直接價格影響和實施前的預期通路調整。這意味著，雖然它在 AET 中會很明顯，但在群體層面上它應該是一個比聯合修復過程更小的因素，並且會反映在 John 稍後提出的指導中。

ENT grew 19.4% with multiple factors behind the stronger quarter. Q4 had a normal prior year comp after a more difficult comp in Q3. We saw some procedure volume catch up after an unseasonably slow Q3 in our tonsil and adenoid business. And that's on top of the ongoing customer acquisitions that are part of the longer-term growth story.

ENT 成長了 19.4%，這一季度的強勁成長有多種因素推動。在第三季的競爭更加激烈之後，第四季的競爭與去年同期基本持平。在經歷了扁桃體和腺樣體業務異常低迷的第三季度之後，我們的手術量有所回升。除此之外，持續的客戶收購也是長期成長計畫的一部分。

Growth has been volatile from quarter to quarter through '24, and I would take the full year growth numbers of 7.3% as more representative of the fundamental business performance. I'll finish with the Advanced Wound Management segment, which delivered its highest growth quarter of the year at 12.2%.

2024 年，各季度的成長都不穩定，我認為全年 7.3% 的成長數字更能代表基本業務的表現。最後我將以高階傷口管理部門作為結束，該部門實現了今年最高季度的成長，達到 12.2%。

Advanced Wound Care grew 1.9%, consistent with the year as a whole. Forms were again a high-growth category within AWC, which was led by ALLEVYN. Overall business unit growth came mainly from bioactives and devices.

高級傷口護理業務成長了 1.9%，與全年成長持平。表格再次成為 AWC 內的一個高成長類別，由 ALLEVYN 領導。整體業務部門的成長主要來自生物活性物質和設備。

Bioactives growth of 20.3% was driven by skin substitutes and in particular, the launch of Grafix Plus. The ramp is following quite a common pattern skin substitutes with an initial period of rapid growth that then quickly normalizes.

生物活性成分增加 20.3%，這得益於皮膚替代品，尤其是 Grafix Plus 的推出。皮膚替代品的生長坡道遵循著相當常見的模式，即最初快速生長一段時間，然後迅速恢復正常。

We also saw strong growth in Santo late in the quarter, where as we've said before, we see volatile stocking patterns. With all of that in mind, we expect bioactives to return to low single-digit growth in 2025. I know there's a lot of interest in skin substitute LCDs where implementation has been delayed and is now scheduled for April.

我們也看到 Santo 在本季末實現了強勁成長，但正如我們之前所說，我們的庫存模式不穩定。考慮到所有這些因素，我們預計生物活性物質將在 2025 年恢復低個位數成長。我知道大家對皮膚替代 LCD 很感興趣，但其實施已被推遲，現在定於 4 月實施。

Our expectation is still that the overall effect on our business will be broadly neutral. With the benefit of good coverage for our portfolio likely to be offset by a smaller overall market size. We're not seeing the evidence of changes in the market in anticipation.

我們仍然預計這對我們業務的整體影響將大致是中性的。我們的投資組合覆蓋範圍廣的好處可能會因整體市場規模較小而被抵消。我們沒有看到預期市場發生變化的證據。

Advanced Wound Devices growth of 20.6% was mainly from our negative pressure wound therapy portfolio. We've talked more about that what we're doing with RENASYS picoacceleration, which is also a big part of our plans with the largest growth opportunities in surgical site complications and in chronic wounds.

先進傷口設備成長 20.6%，主要得益於我們的負壓傷口治療產品組合。我們已經更多地討論了我們正在使用 RENASYS 皮加速技術所做的事情，這也是我們計劃的重要組成部分，在手術部位併發症和慢性傷口方面具有最大的增長機會。

This remains a high-growth category and we expect Pico momentum to continue into 2025. So with that, I'll hand over to John to cover the full year financials. John?

這仍然是一個高成長類別，我們預計 Pico 的成長勢頭將持續到 2025 年。因此，我將把全年財務狀況交給約翰負責。約翰？

Thank you, Deepak. So coming to the full year 2024 financials. Full year revenue was $5.8 billion, up 5.3% versus 2023 on an underlying basis and up 4.7% on a reported basis. Note that excluding the headwinds from China, growth would have been plus 6.7% on an underlying basis. Performance was broad-based with all three reporting segments contributing significantly to the overall group.

謝謝你，迪帕克。這就是 2024 年全年的財務狀況。全年營收為 58 億美元，較 2023 年基本成長 5.3%，報告期間成長 4.7%。請注意，如果不考慮來自中國的不利因素，成長率基本上將達到 6.7%。業績表現廣泛，三個報告分部均對整個集團做出了重大貢獻。

As you can see in the chart, Orthopaedics grew Sports Medicine and ENT grew 6.2%, although again, excluding China, growth would have been 10% and AWM grew 5.1%. We beat our revised Q3 expectations for the full year as a result of a very strong December, where we had somewhat discounted the benefit of the two extra trading days, which turned out to be good across our surgical businesses.

正如您在圖表中所看到的，骨科、運動醫學均有所增長，耳鼻喉科則增長了 6.2%，但如果不包括中國，增長幅度將達到 10%，而 AWM 則增長了 5.1%。由於 12 月表現非常強勁，我們超越了對全年第三季的修訂預期，我們在一定程度上低估了兩個額外交易日帶來的好處，這對我們的外科手術業務來說是一個好消息。

We set out the challenges in the Chinese market for both our Orthopedics and Sports businesses at our Q3 trading statement. And the Q4 China performance was in line with these expectations. Overall, a good set of growth figures and particularly good to see that more than 60% of our growth is drawn from products launched in the last five years as covered by DPAC. This gives us a degree of confidence coming into 2025. Looking at the trading P&L.

我們在第三季交易聲明中列出了我們的骨科和運動業務在中國市場面臨的挑戰。第四季中國市場的表現也符合這些預期。總體而言，這是一組良好的成長數據，尤其令人欣慰的是，我們 60% 以上的成長來自 DPAC 涵蓋的過去五年推出的產品。這讓我們對2025年充滿信心。查看交易損益。

Gross profit was $4.09 billion, with a gross margin of 70.3%, which is basis points below 2023. The gross margin pressure came in the second half of the year as we began to see the price impact of joint repair BBP in China. Trading profit was $1.05 billion, up 8.2% year on year.

毛利為 40.9 億美元，毛利率為 70.3%，比 2023 年低幾個基點。隨著我們開始看到中國接頭修復BBP的價格影響，下半年毛利率面臨壓力。交易利潤為10.5億美元，年增8.2%。

Half one trading margin expansion was 140 basis points and the half two margin went back 20 basis points due to the China headwinds, resulting in 60 basis points of trading margin expansion for the year to 18.1%, which is slightly above the guidance we gave with our Q3 trading update.

由於中國市場的不利因素，上半年交易保證金擴大了 140 個基點，下半年交易保證金回落了 20 個基點，導致全年交易保證金擴大了 60 個基點，達到 18.1%，略高於我們在第三季度交易更新中給出的指引。

If you unpack the 60 basis points of margin expansion, we saw a drag of 40 basis points on gross margin, offset by 100 basis points of positive leverage across our operating expenses as we benefited from operational savings, 40 basis points of that came from slightly lower R&D costs. At the half year, if you remember, we were down 7.5% year on year on our R&D spend.

如果將利潤率擴張的 60 個基點分解開來，我們發現毛利率被拖累了 40 個基點，但由於我們受益於營運節省，因此營運費用的正槓桿率被抵消了 100 個基點，其中 40 個基點來自略低的研發成本。如果你還記得的話，上半年我們的研發支出較去年同期下降了 7.5%。

We expected to catch up some of this shortfall in the second half but ended broadly flat in half two due to some efficiency savings being delivered. We remain committed to our R&D spend and continue to look for ways we can drive efficiencies in this area. Our new product pipeline for 2025 is very exciting and a testament to the hard work by our R&D colleagues.

我們原本預計在下半年彌補部分缺口，但由於實現了部分效率節約，下半年業績基本上持平。我們將繼續致力於研發支出，並繼續尋找提高該領域效率的方法。我們 2025 年的新產品線非常令人興奮，這證明了我們研發同事的辛勤工作。

Looking further down the P&L. Adjusted earnings per share grew by 1.7% to $0.843. That's below the growth in trading profit due to the higher tax interest expense that we set out in our technical guidance at the start of the year.

進一步查看損益表。調整後每股收益成長 1.7% 至 0.843 美元。這低於交易利潤的成長，因為我們在年初的技術指導中設定了較高的稅收利息支出。

Our tax rate was 19.1%, in line with the guidance of 19% to 20%. IFRS earnings per share of $0.472 grew significantly faster primarily due to the lower restructuring charges than in 2023, along with lower costs from the now completed EU MDR program and the provision release relating to metal on metal.

我們的稅率為 19.1%，符合 19% 至 20% 的指導稅率。每股 0.472 美元的 IFRS 收益成長速度顯著加快，這主要歸因於重組費用低於 2023 年，以及現已完成的歐盟 MDR 計劃帶來的成本降低以及與金屬對金屬相關的撥備釋放。

On restructuring charges for the full year were $123 million, down from the $220 million in 2023. And 12-point plan spend was $66 million, bringing spend to date to $253 million and leaving around $272 million of spend to come through in 2025 to total the $275 million we guided to.

全年重組費用為 1.23 億美元，低於 2023 年的 2.2 億美元。12 點計畫支出為 6,600 萬美元，迄今為止的支出已達到 2.53 億美元，到 2025 年還需支出約 2.72 億美元，總計達到我們預計的 2.75 億美元。

We also took a reduction in our headcount in November in order to accelerate operational savings coming into 2025, and we also closed a manufacturing facility that wasn't part of our original 12-point plan. The total cost of all of these programs, over '23, '24 and '25 is $324 million.

為了加速實現 2025 年的營運節約，我們也在 11 月削減了員工人數，也關閉了不屬​​於我們最初的 12 點計畫的製造工廠。2023、2024 和 2025 年所有這些項目的總成本為 3.24 億美元。

And they delivered annualized benefits of $239 million, so about a 1.5-year payback. Overall, we expect restructuring costs in 2025 to be around $45 million, including the remaining $22 million on the 12-point plan and around a third of the spend in 2024.

他們創造了 2.39 億美元的年度收益，因此大約 1.5 年就能收回成本。總體而言，我們預計 2025 年的重組成本約為 4,500 萬美元，其中包括 12 點計劃的剩餘 2,200 萬美元和 2024 年支出的三分之一左右。

The full year dividend is proposed to be unchanged at $0.375 per share. Slide 21 shows a more detailed trading margin bridge. We absorbed headwinds of 130 basis points from input cost inflation and merit increases, 10 basis points from FX and 90 basis points from China VBP pricing. These were more than offset by 130 basis points of revenue leverage from price and volume and 160 basis points of productivity improvements, delivering 60 basis points of margin improvement for the year.

建議全年股息保持不變，仍為每股 0.375 美元。投影片 21 展示了更詳細的交易保證金橋。我們承受了來自投入成本通膨和績效成長的 130 個基點、來自外匯的 10 個基點以及來自中國 VBP 定價的 90 個基點的阻力。這些損失被價格和銷售帶來的 130 個基點的收入槓桿以及 160 個基點的生產力提高所抵消，從而為全年帶來了 60 個基點的利潤率提高。

To help you reconcile what we said at the Q3 trading statement to our outturn, the margin headwind from VBP price was around 20 basis points higher than originally expected with a further negative effect on volume leverage of about 10 to 20 basis points captured here in the revenue leverage bar and in line with the circa 40 basis points we guided to at Q3.

為了幫助您將我們在第三季交易聲明中所述內容與我們的實際結果相協調，VBP 價格帶來的利潤率逆風比最初預期高出約 20 個基點，對交易量槓桿產生進一步的負面影響，約 10 至 20 個基點，這體現在收入槓桿欄中，與我們在第三季度指導的約 40 個基點一致。

However, the better finish to the year, particularly in our higher-margin US business has dropped through strongly to trading profit. The resulting leverage combined with a little bit more upside on ForEx has offset the predicted China effect bringing us back to our original guidance of 80% plus for the full year.

然而，今年的收尾工作表現較好，尤其是我們利潤率較高的美國業務，其交易利潤卻大幅下降。由此產生的槓桿作用加上外匯市場的稍大上漲空間抵消了預期的中國效應，使我們全年恢復了最初 80% 以上的預期。

The overall picture for the full year is that revenue leverage has broadly offset input cost inflation, which means that VBP aside, cost savings have been able to drop through to trading profit. Drilling down into the details of these efficiency savings, we are on track to deliver in line with what I set out at the interims.

全年總體情況是，收入槓桿已基本抵消了投入成本通膨，這意味著除了 VBP 之外，成本節約能夠轉化為交易利潤。深入研究這些效率節約的細節，我們正按計畫按照我在中期報告中提出的目標來實現目標。

We have already made broad-based savings across all areas of the group, including manufacturing, procurement and operating expenses. We finished 2024 at a gross saving run rate of $210 million and was significantly more to come in 2025 and beyond.

我們已經在集團所有領域進行了廣泛的節約，包括製造、採購和營運費用。截至 2024 年，我們的總儲蓄率已達到 2.1 億美元，而 2025 年及以後的儲蓄率還將大幅提高。

Our [ZBB] implementation is on track across all BUs and central functions. Across our five workstreams, 51 initiatives were mobilized, of which nearly half are now complete. Expected 2025 savings are slightly ahead of our initial diagnostics outlook driven by amplifying and accelerating the headcount savings I referred to earlier in Q4 of 2024.

我們的 [ZBB] 實施正在所有業務部門和中央職能部門順利進行。在我們的五個工作流程中，已啟動 51 項舉措，其中近一半現已完成。預計 2025 年的節省金額略高於我們最初的診斷預測，這得益於我在 2024 年第四季之前提到的人員節省的擴大和加速。

We are currently embedding our ZBB approach into our standard processes and the 2026 budgeting process design. We've been working to reduce our head count for some time, and we've made good progress.

我們目前正在將 ZBB 方法嵌入到我們的標準流程和 2026 年預算流程設計中。我們一直在努力減少員工人數，並且取得了良好的進展。

We finished the year with a total head count around 9% lower than at the end of 2022 and with a bigger reduction in '24 than '23. I referred already to the action taken in November 24, with headcount reducing from Q4 into Q1 and Q2 of 2025.

截至今年年底，我們的總員工人數比 2022 年底減少了約 9%，且 2024 年的員工人數減少幅度大於 2023 年。我已經提到了 11 月 24 日的行動，員工人數將從第四季減少到 2025 年第一季和第二季。

The associated cost savings will mainly flow through to the P&L in Q2 and the second half. in line with the flow-through of savings from our manufacturing network optimization program supporting our margin expansion, particularly in the second half of the year. Our 2025 trading margin guidance is for 19% to 20%.

相關成本節省將主要流入第二季和下半年的損益表。這與我們的製造網路優化計劃帶來的節省一致，支持了我們的利潤率擴張，特別是在今年下半年。我們對 2025 年交易利潤率的預期為 19% 至 20%。

Overall for the year, we are forecasting just over 100 basis points of headwind from China VBP, as I said, slightly higher in half one and easing off 11.2%. This is more than I indicated at the interims because of the volume impact I covered at our Q3 trading statement and the additional headwinds from China, AET, BBP in half two.

總體而言，我們預測今年中國 VBP 的逆風將略高於 100 個基點，正如我所說，上半年將略有上升，下降 11.2%。這比我在中期報告中指出的要多，因為我在第三季交易聲明中提到了交易量的影響，以及第二季來自中國、AET、BBP 的額外阻力。

We expect input cost inflation and merit to be more than offset by revenue leverage supported by the significant cost savings driving margin expansion. As mentioned earlier, these operating savings are weighted towards the second half. The combination of this with the timing of the China VBP effects mean we expect nominal margin expansion in half one with a significant step-up in the second half, delivering a margin of 19% to 20% for the full year.

我們預計，投入成本的膨脹和優點將被利潤率擴大所帶來的巨額成本節約所支撐的收入槓桿所抵銷。如前所述，這些營運節省主要集中在下半年。結合這一情況以及中國 VBP 效應的時機，我們預計上半年名目利潤率將擴大，下半年將大幅提升，全年利潤率將達到 19% 至 20%。

Going into 2026, we expect continued margin expansion as we annualize cost savings and continue to drive greater efficiencies in our business. Coming on now to our trading margin by business unit. As Deepak covered earlier, we have transitioned the organization to a global business unit model further embedding the culture of accountability and helping us drive better commercial execution at pace.

進入 2026 年，隨著我們將成本節約年度化並繼續提高業務效率，我們預計利潤率將繼續擴大。現在我們來看看以業務部門劃分的交易利潤。正如 Deepak 之前所述，我們已將組織轉變為全球業務部門模式，進一步嵌入問責文化，並幫助我們快速推動更好的商業執行。

At the interims, we committed to providing additional disclosure on the performance of our business units and to move to fully allocating attributable central costs. Slide 24 shows the margin by business unit under the new methodology.

在此期間，我們承諾將進一步揭露各業務部門的業績，並全面分配可歸屬的中央成本。投影片 24 顯示了新方法下各業務部門的利潤率。

The effect of the change has been similar across the business with each segment's 2023 trading margin between $620 million and 670 basis points lower than under the previous approach. All three business units delivered trading margin expansion in the year, with a 20 basis point increase for Orthopedics, 120 basis points of Sports Medicine E&T and 50 basis points for advanced wound management. In each case, we would also have seen margin expansion under the previous allocation approach.

這項變更對整個業務的影響類似，每個部門 2023 年的交易利潤率比之前的方法低 6.2 億美元至 670 個基點。三個業務部門的交易利潤率在當年均有所擴大，其中骨科業務利潤率增加了 20 個基點，運動醫學 E&T 業務利潤率增加了 120 個基點，先進傷口管理業務利潤率增加了 50 個基點。在每種情況下，我們也會看到在先前的分配方法下利潤率會擴大。

Broadly speaking, expansion came from OpEx savings and leverage across all three business units. There was also some variation from mix effects, notably in orthopedics, where the higher-margin US business grew below the international business. particularly in the first half of the year. For 2025, you should expect the bulk of margin expansion to come from Orthopedics at over 200 basis points with accretion of over 50 basis points coming from both Sports Medicine and AWM.

廣義上講，擴張來自於三個業務部門的營運成本節省和槓桿作用。混合效應也存在一些差異，特別是在骨科領域，利潤率較高的美國業務的成長低於國際業務。特別是在上半年。到 2025 年，您應該預期利潤率擴張的大部分將來自骨科，增幅將超過 200 個基點，而運動醫學和 AWM 將分別增加 50 個基點以上。

With this full allocation in place, only $52 million has remained as truly central costs. and we anticipate these will be broadly flat year on year in 2025. The purpose of the change was to create transparency and accountability and there are already positive behavioral changes as a result. We've seen greater scrutiny spending plans, lower demand for new projects and greater discipline in constructing robust business plans for new IT investment as an example.

即使全部撥款到位，剩下的真正核心成本僅剩 5,200 萬美元。我們預計，到 2025 年，這一數字將與去年同期基本持平。改變的目的是為了創造透明度和責任感，並且已經產生了積極的行為變化。例如，我們看到支出計畫審查更加嚴格，新專案需求下降，以及在製定新的 IT 投資穩健業務計劃方面的紀律更加嚴格。

Accountability at the BU level also arises at the balance sheet as well as the P&L, in particular for our inventory balances, which, as you know, have been a priority under the 12-point plan. Slide 25 shows the development of DSI through the year, both for the group and for each of the business units. 507 overall inventory days at the end of 2024 was a 23-day improvement.

業務單位層級的責任也體現在資產負債表和損益表中，特別是我們的庫存餘額，如您所知，這一直是 12 點計畫下的優先事項。投影片 25 展示了 DSI 全年的發展情況，包括集團和每個業務部門的發展。 2024 年底總庫存天數為 507 天，改善了 23 天。

Some initial build in the year was necessary to support launches, including Aetos and Regeneten Edge, then as product shipments and set deployments ramped up we saw DSI come down across all three business units in the second half. There was still an overall increase in inventory for launch products for the full year.

今年需要進行一些初步建設以支援包括 Aetos 和 Regeneten Edge 在內的產品的發布，然後隨著產品出貨量和設備部署的增加，我們看到下半年所有三個業務部門的 DSI 都有所下降。全年上市產品庫存整體仍呈現增加態勢。

And this means that as well as group DSI improving, our inventory mix has also improved with the units of the slowest turning quartile of SKUs down by 17% during the year. Longer-term improvement will be down to improve forecasting and better alignment of production plans with commercial needs at the SKU level, enabled by the improved SIOP process under the 12-point plan. There is still more work to do, including aligning our site process with our financial forecasting in a truly integrated business plan.

這意味著，除了集團 DSI 改善之外，我們的庫存組合也得到了改善，其中周轉最慢的四分之一 SKU 的單位在一年內下降了 17%。長期改進將取決於改進預測和更好地將生產計劃與 SKU 級別的商業需求結合起來，這得益於 12 點計劃下改進的 SIOP 流程。還有很多工作要做，包括在真正全面的業務計劃中將我們的現場流程與我們的財務預測結合起來。

Inventory reduction remains a focus, and we expect further progress in 2025. The business is increasingly focused on driving improvement in capital returns. We have made solid progress in 2024, delivering a 150 basis point improvement in ROIC to 7.4% at the group level.

減少庫存仍然是一個重點，我們預計 2025 年將取得進一步進展。該業務越來越注重推動資本回報的提高。2024 年，我們取得了紮實的進展，集團層級的 ROIC 提高了 150 個基點，達到 7.4%。

And we expect to see return to a level above our cost of capital in 2025. For the last two years, most of the ROC improvement is being driven by operating margin expansion and particularly by restructuring charges coming down in Orthopedics.

我們預期 2025 年的報酬率將高於我們的資本成本。在過去兩年中，ROC 的成長主要得益於營業利潤率的擴大，尤其是骨科業務重組費用的下降。

For the longer term, we're also focused on driving better asset utilization and reduced inventory, as I've already covered. We expect a doubling of returns in our Orthopedics business in 2025 with further progress in 2026 and beyond and more measured progress in both our sports and wound business units in 2025. This work of course, is made more precise by a recent allocation of central costs of the business units and more granular allocation of capital and a greater focus on capital efficiency measures such as set terms.

從長遠來看，我們還將致力於提高資產利用率和減少庫存，正如我已經提到的。我們預計，到 2025 年，我們的骨科業務的回報將翻一番，到 2026 年及以後將取得進一步進展，到 2025 年，我們的運動和傷口業務部門將取得更加穩健的進展。當然，透過最近對業務部門中央成本的分配、更細緻的資本分配以及更加重視設定條款等資本效率措施，這項工作變得更加精確。

We also remain focused on a more disciplined capital allocation across our businesses and greater focus on working capital with significant improvements delivered in 2024, which is a useful segue to our cash flows for 2024. So moving on to cash flow.

我們也將繼續專注於在我們的業務中進行更嚴格的資本配置，並更加重視營運資本，並在 2024 年實現重大改進，這對我們 2024 年的現金流來說是一個有用的過渡。接下來討論現金流。

Trading cash flow was $999 million for the year, 95% conversion was ahead of our target and well ahead of the 65% in 2023. The improvement came primarily from lower working capital costs, particularly from inventory and payables. Capital expenditure was also lower versus an elevated level of spend in 2023.

全年交易現金流為 9.99 億美元，95% 的轉換率超出了我們的目標，也遠高於 2023 年的 65% 的目標。這項改善主要源自於營運資本成本的降低，尤其是庫存和應付款項。與 2023 年的較高支出水準相比，資本支出也有所下降。

Working capital remains a focus for 2025. Free cash flow also improved to $551 million, helped by $95 million improvement in the restructuring, acquisition, legal and other line, reflecting the lower P&L restructuring cost of $123 million in the year that I mentioned earlier.

營運資本仍是 2025 年關注的重點。自由現金流也改善至 5.51 億美元，這得益於重組、收購、法律和其他業務線 9,500 萬美元的改善，反映了我之前提到的當年 1.23 億美元的較低損益重組成本。

We expect further improvement in free cash flow in 2025 to over $60 million, driven by further improving trading profit and restructuring costs will be less than half of 2024 at around $45 million. Free cash flow will be an increasing focus in the business as evidenced by a shift away from training cash conversion to a free cash flow measure in the performance criteria used to incentivize our most senior people.

我們預計，受交易利潤進一步改善的推動，2025 年自由現金流將進一步改善至 6,000 萬美元以上，而重組成本將不到 2024 年的一半，約為 4,500 萬美元。自由現金流將成為業務中日益關注的焦點，這從激勵我們最高級員工的績效標準從培訓現金轉換轉向自由現金流衡量標準中可以看出。

Overall, our cash generation and returns profile is returning to a much healthier position. As I've set out, we're already seeing clear improvements across multiple metrics where we've had long-standing challenges, and there's more still to come. As a result of our strong cash flow, net debt came down during the year to $2.7 billion, which is a decrease of $67 million.

總體而言，我們的現金產生和回報狀況正在恢復到更健康的狀態。正如我所闡述的，我們已經看到多個指標取得了明顯的改善，而這些指標是我們長期面臨的挑戰，而且未來還會有更多改善。由於我們強勁的現金流，年內淨債務降至 27 億美元，減少了 6,700 萬美元。

We expect the trends behind our improved free cash flow to continue in 2025, including good growth in margin expansion, lower working capital costs and significantly lower restructuring costs. Capital allocation will become a more active consideration as a result.

我們預計，自由現金流改善的趨勢將在 2025 年持續下去，包括利潤率擴張的良好成長、營運資本成本的降低以及重組成本的大幅降低。因此，資本配置將成為一個更積極的考慮因素。

As a reminder, we are focused first on investing for organic growth, followed by acquisitions, paying a dividend and last returning any excess capital to shareholders. We finished 2024 with a leverage ratio of 1.9 times adjusted EBITDA, which is within our target of around 2 times.

提醒一下，我們先專注於投資有機成長，其次是收購、支付股息，最後將多餘的資本回饋給股東。截至 2024 年，我們的槓桿率為調整後 EBITDA 的 1.9 倍，符合我們約 2 倍的目標。

For the use of excess cash, we'll continue to look at tuck-in M&A in line with our policy and growth strategy. And I would note that at the current valuation of our equity, the financial return on share buybacks is a very relevant hurdle for M&A.

對於多餘現金的使用，我們將繼續根據我們的政策和成長策略考慮補充併購。我想指出的是，以我們目前的股權估值，股票回購的財務回報對於併購來說是一個非常相關的障礙。

I'll finish with our outlook for 2025. For 2025, we expect underlying growth of around 5%. That includes continued progress in US recon on an ADS basis, noting the swing from two extra days in Q4 to one fewer day in Q1 Q2 of 2025. We also expect continued good growth in all of sports medicine ex China, ENT and AWM, including bioactives returning to low single-digit growth as the benefit of Graphics Plus launch phases.

最後，我將展望一下 2025 年。到 2025 年，我們預計基本成長率約為 5%。其中包括在 ADS 基礎上繼續推進美國偵察工作，值得注意的是，2025 年第四季度偵察時間增加了兩天，而第一季第二季減少了一天。我們也預計，除中國以外的所有運動醫學、耳鼻喉科和運動醫學領域都將繼續保持良好的成長勢頭，其中生物活性物質將因 Graphics Plus 發布階段而恢復低個位數成長。

China will still be a significant growth headwind as Deepak highlighted. Our guidance includes a total headwind of around 150 basis points for the full year, but still results in solid underlying growth overall. As previously indicated, we also expect a significant step-up in profitability in 2025 with a trading margin between 19% and 20%.

正如 Deepak 所強調的，中國仍將是經濟成長的一大阻力。我們的預期包括全年約 150 個基點的總逆風，但總體上仍將實現穩健的潛在成長。如前所述，我們也預計 2025 年獲利能力將大幅提升，交易利潤率將達到 19% 至 20% 之間。

That step-up will come from operating leverage further operating cost improvements and the benefits of network optimization program beginning to reach the P&L, particularly in the second half. And these effects will more than offset the headwinds from China in inflation.

這種提升將來自於營運槓桿、進一步的營運成本改善以及網路優化計畫的收益開始影響損益，特別是在下半年。這些影響將遠遠抵消中國通膨帶來的阻力。

There are also significant phasing considerations in 2025. On growth, we expect that some of the strong finish to 2024, particularly in US Sports Medicine were supported by year-end patient co-pay effects that will normalize in Q1.

2025 年還需要考慮重大的分階段措施。在成長方面，我們預計 2024 年的一些強勁成長，特別是美國運動醫學領域的成長，將受到年底患者共同支付效應的支持，而這種效應將在第一季恢復正常。

And Also, China Recon will remain slow in the first quarter and the growth headwinds from joint repair the EBP will roll off in the middle of the year. In addition, we will have one fewer trading day compared to 2024 in each of Q1 and Q2 and then one extra day in Q4.

此外，中國勘測公司第一季仍將保持緩慢成長，而聯合修復 EBP 帶來的成長阻力將在年中消退。此外，與 2024 年相比，第一季和第二季的交易日將分別減少一天，而第四季的交易日將增加一天。

Putting all of that together, we expect growth to be around 1% to 2% in Q1, then accelerate for Q2 and the second half. We also expect the trading margin to be stronger in the second half than in the first as I've already commented, we expect greater margin seasonality than in 2024 with only nominal year-on-year expansion in the first half.

綜合考慮所有這些因素，我們預計第一季經濟成長將在 1% 至 2% 左右，第二季和下半年將加速。我們也預計下半年的交易利潤率將高於上半年，正如我已經評論的那樣，我們預計利潤率的季節性將比 2024 年更大，而上半年的同比擴張僅為名義上的。

And so the full year margin expansion will be mainly driven by half two. As we did last year, will give more specific margin phase in detail with our Q1 trading update. And now I'll hand back to Deepak.

因此，全年利潤率的成長將主要受到下半年的推動。正如我們去年所做的那樣，我們將在第一季交易更新中詳細介紹保證金階段。現在我將把話題交還給 Deepak。

Thank you, John. So I'm encouraged by how we're positioned coming out of 2024. It's good to deliver on both growth and margin. But what's most encouraging is to see the 12-point plan benefits more visibly coming to fruition.

謝謝你，約翰。因此，我對我們 2024 年的定位感到鼓舞。同時實現成長和利潤是件好事。但最令人鼓舞的是看到12點計劃的效益更加明顯地取得成果。

We started out with a comprehensive program of actions, which first showed improvement in operational KPIs is now delivering an inflection across the full range of financial outcomes. We know that there is still much more to do, but we are well positioned for a key year of delivery in '25.

我們首先採取了一項全面的行動計劃，該計劃首先表明營運關鍵績效指標 (KPI) 有所改善，現在正在為整個財務結果帶來轉折。我們知道還有很多工作要做，但我們已經為25年這個關鍵的交付年做好了準備。

On revenue, we're continuing to improve in US recon. We're delivering successive waves of innovation, and we're demonstrating our ability to turn that into a level of growth that can drive natural leverage. We've also taken broad action on our cost base with the result that there's a step-up in savings across manufacturing and operating expenses poised to flow through to our P&L in '25.

在收入方面，我們在美國偵察方面的工作正在繼續改善。我們正在掀起一波又一波的創新浪潮，並展示出我們有能力將其轉化為能夠推動自然槓桿的成長水平。我們也對成本基礎採取了廣泛的行動，結果是製造和營運費用的節省增加，這些節省預計在 25 年流入我們的損益表。

So I look forward to updating you through the year as we move towards our goals. But I'd like to finish today on a personal note. As you may know, Phil Cowdy has recently announced that he will retire later this year.

因此，我期待在我們朝著目標邁進的過程中向您通報今年的最新情況。但我想以個人觀點來結束今天的演講。您可能知道，Phil Cowdy 最近宣布他將於今年稍後退休。

Phil came to Smith & Nephew 17 years ago. He had more hair then and has been a pillar of the company across a number of roles. Most recently, he served as a Chief Corporate Development and Corporate Affairs Officer. And for me, he has been an invaluable source of support and advice in my time as CEO. I'm sure you'll join me in wishing him all the best for retirement.

菲爾 17 年前加入施樂輝公司。當時他頭髮更多，並且擔任多個職務，是公司的支柱。最近，他擔任首席企業發展和企業事務官。對我來說，在我擔任執行長期間，他一直是我無價的支持和建議來源。我相信您也會和我一起祝福他退休後一切順利。

Phil, thank you very much for all your tremendous contributions to the company over 17 years. And now we can move on to questions. Jack?

菲爾，非常感謝您17年來對公司做出的巨大貢獻。現在我們可以開始提問了。傑克？

Jack Reynolds Clark from RBC. I have three, please. First, on China. So what gives you the confidence that orthopedics is going to recover towards the end of Q1, how much visibility do you have into or on end market demand? And also on China, within sports, are you seeing volumes tick up as you had previously expected?

來自 RBC 的傑克雷諾茲克拉克 (Jack Reynolds Clark)。我有三份，謝謝。第一，關於中國。那麼，是什麼讓您有信心骨科行業將在第一季末復甦，您對終端市場需求的了解程度如何？那麼在中國，體育領域，您是否看到交易量如您之前預期的那樣上升？

Second question was just on US hips and knees. So could you just remind us at this point what gives you confidence that the geography will now grow in line with the market come the end of 2025? Just give a bit of confidence there.

第二個問題是關於美國的臀部和膝蓋。那麼，您能否提醒我們一下，是什麼讓您有信心在 2025 年底該地域將與市場同步成長？只要給一點信心即可。

Then the final question is on R&D. So obviously, you said that R&D would tick up -- and I think there's been a bit of nervousness that R&D is being used perhaps to manage margins. Could you just give us a bit of confidence again that, that is not the case or it won't be the case in 2025?

最後一個問題是關於研發的。顯然，您說研發費用會增加——而我認為人們有點擔心研發費用可能被用來管理利潤率。您能否再次讓我們相信，情況並非如此，或者 2025 年也不會如此？

Thanks for the question, Jack. So first, with China, we had indicated in Q3 that we had seen a softening in end user demand. So there's -- in China, just to remind you, there is a tender business and then there's an off-tender business.

謝謝你的提問，傑克。首先，對中國而言，我們在第三季就指出，終端用戶需求已減弱。所以——在中國，提醒一下，有招標業務，也有非招標業務。

It's the same price, but you've got committed volumes in the tender business and free float in terms of volumes in the off-tender business. What we have seen is softening of demand in that off-tender business.

價格相同，但招標業務中已承諾了一定數量，而非招標業務中則有自由浮動數量。我們看到的是非招標業務的需求正在減弱。

So ordering it stopped because the inventories are built up in the channel. And as I indicated, we're seeing inventories come down, but we expect in Q1 that some of that to continue and to recalibrate.

由於渠道中庫存已積壓，因此停止訂購。正如我所指出的，我們看到庫存正在下降，但我們預計第一季庫存將持續下降並重新調整。

And so as we commented Q4 of '24 played out as we had indicated that it would. And nothing that we've seen so far indicates that Q1 will be any different. So Q1 should be the low watermark in terms of inventories coming down to equilibrate.

正如我們所評論的，24 年第四季的情況正如我們所預料的那樣。到目前為止，我們還沒有看到任何跡象表明第一季會有什麼不同。因此，就庫存下降至平衡而言，第一季應該是低水位。

From there on out, it will be our ability to service the market. And I'll remind you that we've got committed volumes for tenders at a price that we know. So that's how we expect the recon part to play out. With sports, in the first half of the year, it will be essentially the sports VBP on joint repair playing through.

從那時起，我們就有能力服務市場。我要提醒大家的是，我們已經以已知的價格承諾了招標數量。這就是我們期望偵察部分能夠進行的。對於運動方面，上半年主要是體育VBP在關節修復方面的發展。

And then in the second half of the year, that we will have lapped that. What will come concomitantly is VBP for AET that we expect to kick into gear in the second half of the year.

然後在今年下半年，我們就會實現這個目標。隨之而來的是，我們預計 AET 的 VBP 將於今年下半年啟動。

As with the joint repair and as with orthopedics, there will be adjustments in the channel as we lead up to that. So putting all these effects together, we feel confident in, a, having pegged how that's going to play out, having been shaped by the experiences over the last few years. And our guidance actually contemplates the combination of these two effects. So that's China. Do you have anything to add, John?

與關節修復和骨科一樣，我們會對通道進行調整。因此，將所有這些影響綜合起來，我們充滿信心，因為我們已經確定了事情將如何發展，並且已經根據過去幾年的經驗做出了調整。我們的指導實際上考慮了這兩種影響的結合。這就是中國。約翰，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

I was just going to say, just in terms of the actual numbers that we've got assumed in our budget for 2025 for China. The first half on orthopedics, we are predicting it's going to be down 60% to 70%, 75%. So we're fully baking in the experience that we saw through at the end of 2024. And we do expect to see some of that recovery come through in the second half. So I think we're being very sensible about the numbers we're using.

我只是想說，就我們在 2025 年預算中為中國假設的實際數字而言。我們預計骨科上半年的銷售額將下降 60% 至 70% 甚至 75%。因此，我們正在充分吸收我們在 2024 年底所看到的經驗。我們確實預計下半年會出現一些復甦。所以我認為我們對所使用的數字非常明智。

On sports medicine, again, we're reflecting the Q3, Q4 performance of '24 coming through into '25. So the first half will be down almost 50% against our budget. So I think we've been sensible using the history that we've seen in the second half of '24 to build that into our forecast for 2025, and that's fully baked into our guidance for the full year.

關於運動醫學，我們再次反映了 2024 年第三季、第四季以及 2025 年的表現。因此，上半年的預算將下降近 50%。因此，我認為我們明智地利用了 24 年下半年的歷史數據，將其納入我們對 2025 年的預測中，並且這完全融入了我們對全年的指導中。

So your second question about US hips and knees. The confidence comes from us having executed multiple elements of our transformation program over the last couple of years. The first is improving supply, which is a substrate to this whole thing.

您的第二個問題是關於美國臀部和膝蓋的。這種信心源自於我們在過去幾年中已經執行了轉型計畫的多個要素。首先是改善供應，這是整個事情的基礎。

As I've commented on previous calls, US specific SKUs were the last to recover. We didn't plan it that way, but this is how things unfolded. Hips recovered before knees did from a supply standpoint. But as we commented in '24, we're now back to our target levels. So that's the first part.

正如我在之前的電話會議中評論的那樣，美國特定的 SKU 是最後恢復的。我們並沒有這樣計劃，但事情就是這樣發展的。從供給角度來看，臀部比膝蓋先恢復。但正如我們在 24 年所評論的那樣，我們現在又回到了目標水平。這是第一部分。

Secondly, concomitantly, we've been improving our commercial execution, just multiple facets to that. It's leadership. It's our organization, our selling organization. We've made some improvements in how we're set up, how we performance manage and also the process to be used for performance management in orthopedics.

其次，同時，我們也不斷改進我們的商業執行力，這只是多方面的問題。這就是領導力。這是我們的組織，我們的銷售組織。我們對骨科的設定方式、績效管理方式以及績效管理流程做了一些改進。

We're just fine on the other parts where we had improvements to make in those areas. All of those we've been driving at. The upshot of it is, as I look at customer churn through '23 and '24, the story was we lost more customers than we gained.

在其他方面我們做得很好，只是在這些方面我們需要改進。這些都是我們一直在努力實現的。結果是，當我回顧 23 年和 24 年的客戶流失情況時，我們發現失去的客戶比獲得的客戶還要多。

Now as we exited 2024, that balance is now in favor of us winning more customers than we've lost. And that gives us a more stable account base as we've reduced churn. And on the back of a portfolio, that we still have work to do to add to that portfolio, but we've got a portfolio and a strategy for commercializing our portfolio that I feel good about.

如今，隨著我們走出 2024 年，這種平衡對我們有利，我們贏得的客戶比失去的更多。由於客戶流失減少，這為我們提供了更穩定的客戶基礎。在投資組合的基礎上，我們仍有許多工作要做，但我們已經有一個投資組合，並且有一個將投資組合商業化的策略，我對此感到滿意。

Catalyst Tim be a great growth driver because we are now able to fully participate in the direct anterior approach, which is the high-growth part of hips. We've got Cori now that's got tremendous functionality truly setting the standard in terms of robotics for knees, and there's more to come in hips.

Catalyst Tim 是一個巨大的成長動力，因為我們現在能夠充分參與直接前入路，這是髖關節的高成長部分。我們現在有了 Cori，它擁有強大的功能，真正為膝蓋機器人技術設定了標準，而且在臀部機器人方面還有更多的發展空間。

So look at the growth drivers from a product standpoint, the improvements we've made to commercial execution and supply is a substrate all of those translate into confidence that I feel that we're going to continue this improvement trajectory that you clearly see that we've laid out. Just the US question.

因此，從產品的角度來看成長動力，我們在商業執行和供應方面所做的改進是基礎，所有這些都轉化為信心，我認為我們將繼續沿著我們已經清楚看到的改進軌跡前進。只是美國的問題。

And maybe just again, just to build on the numbers there. So as Deepak chart showed at the end of the year, we were exiting at circa 2% ADS growth. We will deliver slightly ahead of that in Q1, not much though but then we'll see that grow to 3% to 4% by the end of the year, and therefore, in line with the market, which is consistently with what we said now for the last 12 months or so that we expect to get to market growth by the end of 2025.

或許只是為了再次鞏固這個數字。因此，正如 Deepak 圖表在年底所顯示的，我們以大約 2% 的 ADS 成長率退出。我們在第一季的交付量將略高於這一水平，雖然不會太多，但到今年年底，我們會看到這一增長到 3% 到 4%，因此與市場保持一致，這與我們在過去 12 個月左右所說的一致，我們預計到 2025 年底將實現市場增長。

Regarding R&D, as I've commented multiple times, including today, innovation is a key part of our growth story. We've called out that 60% of our growth revenue grade came from new products. That's on top of nearly 50% in '23, where revenue growth came from new products.

關於研發，正如我多次評論的那樣，包括今天，創新是我們成長故事的關鍵部分。我們指出，60% 的成長收入來自新產品。這是在 23 年的基礎上成長的近 50%，當時的收入成長來自於新產品。

So this is an important part of what we do. I wanted to make our margin number by cutting R&D we have done that two years ago, right? So that is not a lever we're looking at.

這是我們工作的一個重要部分。我想透過削減研發費用來提高我們的利潤率，我們兩年前就已經這樣做了，對嗎？所以這不是我們正在考慮的槓桿。

But when you look at year-on-year comparisons, of course, R&D looks down. The primary part of that is onetime effects. And those were related to some productivity measures that we took and actually EU MDR that was obviously a onetime thing that rolled off into 2024.

但當你進行年比比較時，研發支出當然會下降。其中主要部分是一次性效果。這些與我們採取的一些生產力措施有關，實際上歐盟 MDR 顯然是一次性措施，將延續到 2024 年。

We haven't cut any programs, in fact, added programs despite the margin pressure that we feel. So all of the shoulder programs on Cori, that was added on top -- of when we started the 12-point plan program.

我們沒有削減任何項目，事實上，儘管我們感受到利潤壓力，但我們還是增加了項目。因此，所有關於 Cori 的肩部計劃都是在我們開始 12 點計劃項目的基礎上添加的。

Rounding out the portfolio of shoulder while we had aspirations for that. What we've actually done is accelerated our implant program. And on the knee side, we've actually accelerated some programs within that as we look to make our portfolio more competitive.

當我們對此抱持期望時，完善肩部組合。我們實際上所做的是加速我們的植入計劃。在膝蓋方面，我們實際上已經加速了一些項目，因為我們希望讓我們的產品組合更具競爭力。

So in terms of the substance of what we're looking to do in R&D, which is the programs, I feel very good about the level of funding that we've got and really the level of innovation that's gone into those programs. And you can see the First, in terms of category creating products we've brought to bear. All of those tell the story of innovation.

因此，就我們在研發方面想要做的事情的實質，也就是專案而言，我對我們獲得的資金水準以及這些專案的創新水準感到非常滿意。就我們所創造的產品類別而言，您可以看到第一名。所有這些都講述了創新的故事。

We're a med tech business. Innovation is key to us, and we do punch above our rate class. So that's the reassurance that I hope I can provide around R&D. And then the 4% reduction year on year in R&D is just a natural consequence of where the spend occurs within our R&D program.

我們是一家醫療科技公司。創新對我們來說至關重要，而且我們的表現確實超越了同等級的競爭對手。所以我希望能夠為研發部門提供這樣的保證。研發費用年減 4% 只是我們研發專案支出的自然結果。

It isn't coming from cutting programs, but it's as we go through different milestones, the spend level tends to vary. So we aren't backing into the R&D number based on the margin target but rather driven by what we think we need in terms of programs to be successful.

這並不是來自削減項目，而是當我們經歷不同的里程碑時，支出水準往往會改變。因此，我們不會根據利潤目標來支持研發數字，而是根據我們認為專案成功所需的條件來驅動。

And also, when you look at the margin accretion for the year, the 60 basis points, we get 60 basis points of improvement coming through from our improved SG&A spend. So one would argue that the key leverage here is the cost savings that we've delivered coming through, providing that margin accretion, and we'll see more of that, of course, in 2025. So it's not R&D, it's the SG&A reduction that's driving our margin expansion.

此外，當您查看今年的利潤率成長時，我們會發現這 60 個基點是透過改善銷售、一般和行政開支而實現的。因此，有人會說，這裡的關鍵槓桿是我們實現的成本節約，從而實現利潤的成長，當然，在 2025 年，我們會看到更多這樣的情況。因此，推動我們利潤率擴大的不是研發，而是銷售、一般及行政費用的減少。

This is Estelle Pang from Bernstein. I'm asking the question on behalf of Lisa Clive. So the first one is, can you discuss your effort to reduce SKUs in hips and meat is a significant reduction required to get orthopedics to structurally higher mid- to high teens EBIT margin. or perhaps another way of saying it, how much is your large number of platforms in both hips and Mes contributing to the low margin profile of the Recon business.

我是伯恩斯坦的 Estelle Pang。我代表麗莎·克萊夫提出這個問題。因此，第一個問題是，您能否討論一下為減少臀部和肉類的 SKU 所做的努力，這是使骨科的 EBIT 利潤率達到結構性更高的中高水平所需的顯著減少。或者換句話說，你們在 HIP 和 MES 領域的大量平台對 Recon 業務的低利潤率有多大影響？

And the second question related to margins. So most of your margin improvement is clearly coming from orthopedic. Can you give us a bridge in terms of rough proportion of uplift in this division that will be coming from a reduction in COGS, operating leverage or any particular areas of cost savings.

第二個問題與利潤有關。因此，您的大部分利潤成長顯然來自於骨科。您能否為我們大致介紹一下該部門的提升比例，這些提升將來自降低銷貨成本、降低營運槓桿或任何特定的成本節約領域？

And the -- sorry, the last one. Could you discuss the competitive dynamics in the Chinese market specifically your Chinese recon business? So after the large decline in Q3 and Q4, have you lost shares in the market, especially to local players? And have you seen like the by local campaign, the trend is notably like accelerated? Or is just an aberration?

還有——抱歉，最後一個。您能談談中國市場的競爭動態，特別是您的中國偵察業務嗎？那麼在第三季和第四季大幅下滑之後，你們的市佔率是否已經下降，尤其是被本土企業蠶食了？您是否看過類似本地活動的趨勢明顯加速？或只是一種異常現象？

Thanks for the questions. So I'll take the first and the third one. I'll have John address the second point. So I'll take those first, first and third. In terms of SKU reduction, that is an element of our plan.

感謝您的提問。所以我會選第一個和第三個。我會讓約翰談談第二點。所以我會先選擇這些，然後是第一和第三。就 SKU 減少而言，這是我們計劃的一部分。

And actually, it was one of the items of the 12-point plan where we have actually, over the last few years, significantly reduced the amount of SKUs. And those are primarily in Asia and certain emerging markets. We've seen the benefit of those, right? In terms of platforms, that's a much trickier bit to execute because you've got a customer account base that you've got to protect, and it's not always easy to transition from one platform to the other.

實際上，這是 12 點計劃中的一項，在過去幾年中，我們實際上已經大幅減少了 SKU 的數量。這些主要位於亞洲和某些新興市場。我們已經看到了它們的好處，對吧？就平台而言，執行起來要困難得多，因為你必須保護客戶帳戶基礎，而且從一個平台轉換到另一個平台並不總是那麼容易。

The good news here is we've already made good progress it's important over the longer term. But in order to achieve where we need to get to in '25 and '26 and '27, it's not the biggest lever that will get us there. Does it afford challenges for us from a scale efficiency standpoint? Yes, it does. But in the end, we've got other levers that we are pulling in order to deliver the margin expansion.

好消息是我們已經取得了良好的進展，從長遠來看這很重要。但為了實現我們在 25、26 和 27 年需要達到的目標，這並不是幫助我們實現目標的最大槓桿。從規模效率的角度來看，這帶給我們挑戰嗎？是的。但最終，我們還需要利用其他手段來實現利潤率的擴大。

So that's a short answer to the story. Good progress has delivered what we expect to deliver going forward. It's a part of the plan that's not the biggest part of the plan in terms of margin expansion. On the third part, in China, you asked about Recon, but this is a little bit also in sports. We have lost share.

這就是對這個故事的簡短回答。良好的進展已經實現了我們期望的未來目標。這是該計劃的一部分，但就利潤率擴張而言，它並不是該計劃中最重要的部分。第三部分，在中國，您問到關於 Recon 的情況，但這在體育領域也有點類似。我們已經失去了份額。

Part of what we see the government doing is, in addition to addressing the cost base or health care spend or VBP is a vehicle for controlling that. There's clearly a push to support local manufacturers, right? And so we should expect that some of them will step in and start to play a bigger role in the market. And we have seen that come through.

我們看到政府所做的部分工作是，除了解決成本基礎或醫療支出或 VBP 之外，還採取了控制這一問題的工具。顯然，這是在推動支持本地製造商，對嗎？因此，我們應該預期其中一些公司將介入並開始在市場中發揮更大的作用。我們已經看到這一點。

And largely, our Recon business or some of the volume impact that we've talked about in the past really comes from local players being more competitive in that free float segment that I talked about earlier in Recon.

很大程度上，我們的 Recon 業務或我們過去談到的一些銷售影響實際上來自於本地參與者在自由流通股領域的競爭力更強，我之前在 Recon 中談到過這一點。

So it is true that, that is a bigger factor we're losing share. In sports, it's maybe the effect is not quite as pronounced, but it is the same dynamic nonetheless. So there's a price impact, and we expect local players to come in and step into that. Abbe undercalled that a bit in sports.

所以，這確實是我們失去市場佔有率的更大因素。在體育運動中，其效果可能不那麼明顯，但其動力是一樣的。因此，這會產生價格影響，我們預計本地參與者將參與其中。阿貝在體育方面對此的評價有點低估了。

Yes, we had. But we've been shaped by the experience of particularly as we discussed in Q3. So that's the third question. John, you want to take the second question of the margin.

是的，我們有。但我們已經受到了經驗的影響，特別是正如我們在第三季度討論的那樣。這是第三個問題。約翰，你想回答邊欄的第二個問題。

Yes. So on margin expansion by business unit, just to contextualize, Obviously, we outturned 24% or 11.5% on margin for our Orthopedics business, 24% for Sports and 23.7% for wound. Now we will expect both wound and sports to accrete by 50 basis points plus, we will expect to see margin expansion come through there.

是的。因此，關於各業務部門的利潤率擴張，僅從背景來看，顯然，我們的骨科業務利潤率高出 24% 或 11.5%，運動業務利潤率高出 24%，傷口業務利潤率高出 23.7%。現在我們預計傷口和運動收入將增加 50 個基點以上，我們預期利潤率將隨之擴大。

But clearly, starting at a fairly high level, that will be more muted. However, in our Orthopedics business, we will expect at least a step-up of 200 bps from the one at least 13.5%, hopefully getting towards 14.

但顯然，從相當高的水平開始，這種影響會更加溫和。然而，在我們的骨科業務中，我們預計至少將從 13.5% 的成長速度增加 200 個基點，希望達到 14。

The key drivers behind that are twofold. The first of which is obviously operational leverage coming through growing our top line and recovery in our US Orthopedics business, as we've already talked about.

背後的關鍵驅動因素有兩個。正如我們已經討論過的，其中第一個顯然是透過增加我們的收入和恢復美國骨科業務而實現的營運槓桿。

And the second one, which, of course, is a big chunk of that will also come from savings, particularly the closure of the four manufacturing units that support that business and the benefits that those savings coming through in the second half of the year. So two big levers on orthopedics to deliver that 200 margin, 200 bps of margin expansion, operational leverage and manufacturing cost savings.

第二項收入，當然也是其中很大一部分，也將來自節省，特別是關閉支援該業務的四個製造部門，以及這些節省帶來的收益將在下半年實現。因此，骨科有兩個重要槓桿可實現 200% 的利潤率、200 個基點的利潤率擴張、營運槓桿和製造成本節約。

Robert Davies from Morgan Stanley. Two questions. One was just on the headcount reduction. It's obviously been quite a notable step down. I noticed your one-off costs were not quite so big in '25 is $24 million.

摩根士丹利的羅伯特戴維斯。兩個問題。一個是關於裁員。顯然，這是一個相當明顯的退步。我注意到 25 年您的一次性成本並不是那麼大，是 2400 萬美元。

Just maybe give us a bit of context on where you are in the headcount reduction program. What's left? Where are those people actually coming out of? And then the second one was just around potential tariff risks across different parts of your business. Perhaps you could give us a little color on that.

請您向我們介紹一下你們在裁員計畫中的位置。還剩下什麼？這些人究竟是從哪裡出來的？第二個問題是關於您業務不同部分的潛在關稅風險。也許您可以給我們稍微解釋一下這一點。

On headcount, so most of the headcount reduction comes from the factory closures, which is part of the network optimization efforts. That's almost all in orthopedics, where we had more capacity than we needed. But as part of the broader cost savings programs, we've actually gone after efficiencies right across the group, so significant in SG&A.

就員工人數而言，大部分員工人數的減少來自於工廠關閉，這是網路優化工作的一部分。這些幾乎都發生在骨科，我們的產能已經超越了需求。但作為更廣泛的成本節約計劃的一部分，我們實際上已經追求整個集團的效率，因此在銷售、一般和行政管理方面具有重要意義。

Initially, it was as we transitioned into the business unit model that was back in 2023. But there's actually significant SG&A-related headcount savings as well. And so -- and then in '24, you noted the step-up in reduction, if you will. We had to make some difficult decisions there.

最初，我們在 2023 年轉向了業務部門模式。但實際上，與銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 相關的員工人數也顯著節省。所以 — — 然後在 24 年，你會注意到減少的幅度在加大，如果你願意的話。我們不得不做出一些艱難的決定。

We've actually pulled forward some of the things we had planned for '25 into '24 as we grappled with the additional headwinds. So relative to where we started, the 12-point plan, inflation has been higher for longer and VBP impact in Sports, which we didn't have at the time we announced the program and not only in joint repair now coming into AET has meant we've had to go deeper than we originally set out to do in the 12-point plan.

為了應對額外的阻力，我們實際上已經將原計劃在 2025 年進行的一些事情提前到了 2024 年。因此，相對於我們開始的 12 點計劃，通貨膨脹率一直處於較高水平，並且 VBP 對體育的影響在我們宣布該計劃時是沒有的，而且不僅僅是在關節修復方面，現在進入 AET 意味著我們必須比我們最初在 12 點計劃中設定的更深入。

The zero-based budgeting approach was one of the vehicles we used to get there. But we've largely done the big bulk of what we set out to do 25 is the year when the benefits of those actions will flow through into the P&L. So that's the head count, both in terms of where it is and how are we thinking about this phasing or sequence of it.

零基預算方法是我們實現這一目標的方法之一。但我們基本上已經完成了我們計劃要做的大部分工作，25 年這些行動的收益將流入損益表。這就是人數統計，包括人數目前所在的位置以及我們如何考慮其分階段或順序。

In terms of tariffs, obviously, the headline is it's a dynamic picture, right? It's hard to know how things will actually settle out. When you look at what's been announced so far, this is primarily on China, that is within the realm of what we had contemplated and within the realm of what we I also remind you that tariffs in China is not a new thing.

就關稅而言，顯然，標題是一幅動態圖景，對嗎？很難知道事情最終會如何解決。當你看到迄今為止宣布的內容時，你會發現這主要是針對中國的，這在我們所考慮的範圍內，也在我們的考慮範圍內。我還提醒你，中國的關稅並不是什麼新鮮事。

We've had to navigate that also in the past administration. The topic of reciprocal tariffs and the impact of that at this point, it's hard to know how that's actually going to play out. The headline for us is we've got a team looking at it. In terms of the US, the largest proportion of our US business is served through manufacturing plants in the US. So we are reasonably well covered there.

我們在過去的政府也必須解決這個問題。目前，關於互惠關稅的話題及其影響，很難知道實際上會如何發展。對我們來說，最重要的是我們已經有一個團隊在研究它了。就美國而言，我們在美國的業務最大部分是透過美國的製造工廠來服務的。所以我們在那裡得到了相當好的保障。

But where we expect the impact to directly answer your question would be primarily in our Wound business, where we've got a significant presence in China in terms of manufacturing. But having said that, all of our scenario analysis we've done leads us to believe within the realm of the impact will be the realm of what we expect. But the headline, again, is as dynamic and hard to know how it's going to play out exactly.

但我們預計，直接回答您問題的影響主要在於我們的傷口業務，就製造而言，我們在中國佔有重要地位。但話雖如此，我們所做的所有情境分析都使我們相信，影響範圍將是我們預期的範圍。但標題又變得動態起來，很難知道它究竟會如何發展。

And just to build for a second on Deepak's comments on the headcount. So we're not planning any major headcount reduction plans in 2025 per se. That said, this whole philosophy of ZBB that we've embedded in 2024, we want to make sure it becomes in our DNA and our way of working.

再簡單談談 Deepak 對員工總數的評論。因此，我們本身並沒有計劃在 2025 年實施任何大規模裁員計劃。也就是說，我們在 2024 年嵌入的整個 ZBB 理念，我們希望確保它融入我們的 DNA 和工作方式中。

And so as we set our budgets for the 2026 year, will be -- we're always, always looking for opportunity to make ourselves more efficient. And there are still opportunities, I believe, in the business where we can drive efficiency through, but it will be done through incremental, continuous improvement as opposed to maybe step change one-off programs that we've done in 2024.

因此，當我們制定 2026 年的預算時，我們始終在尋找機會提高效率。我相信，我們仍然有機會在業務中提高效率，但這將透過漸進式、持續的改進來實現，而不是像我們在 2024 年所做的那樣，逐步改變一次性計劃。

Seb Jantet with Panmure Lliberum. Two questions, if I can. Just first of all, I just want to talk about pricing a little bit. And just want to get a sense of what you've baked into your forecast for pricing in some of the major markets, obviously BBP aside. And then secondly, in terms of guidance, you've given yourself quite a big window to drive through for this year.

Seb Jantet 和 Panmure Lliberum。如果可以的話，我有兩個問題。首先，我想稍微談談定價問題。我只是想了解一下，您對一些主要市場（顯然 BBP 除外）的定價預測考慮了哪些因素。其次，就指導而言，您已經為自己今年的發展提供了相當大的機會。

So I'm wondering what are the levers that might leave you at the the bottom end or top end of that? Is it a revenue outperformance story is that cautious guidance on cost savings? Just trying to get a handle on on where we are on that.

所以我想知道，哪些因素可能會讓你處於最低端或最高端？這是收入超額完成的故事，還是成本節約的謹慎指引？只是想了解我們目前的狀況。

Yes, in terms of pricing, historically, we're a 1% to 2% price erosion type of company. And it's a very fairly typical in the med tech sector. Over the last couple of years, we've been doing better than that. We've been flat to maybe -- a little over. And that's largely because we've been able to pass through are inflation-related cost increases into -- to our customers.

是的，就定價而言，從歷史上看，我們是一家價格侵蝕率為 1% 到 2% 的公司。這在醫療科技領域非常典型。在過去的幾年裡，我們做得更好了。我們可能已經持平，甚至略微超出。這主要是因為我們能夠將通貨膨脹相關的成本增加轉嫁給我們的客戶。

And as you know, in med tech, historically, it's not something that you can easily do. What I've commented in the past is we don't expect that to continue out into the future. So our long-term plan basically takes into account going back to normal levels of price erosion, which is around one to two -- we're not going to get there all in one year.

如你所知，在醫療科技領域，從歷史上看，這不是一件容易做到的事。我過去曾評論說，我們不希望這種情況在未來持續下去。因此，我們的長期計劃基本上考慮到恢復到正常的價格侵蝕水平，大約需要一到兩年——我們不會在一年內實現這一目標。

We already saw the '24 was worse I should use my objective currently. It was closer to normal than '23 was we expect '25 to be even closer to normal than that but not quite at roll, right? So that's the way to think about process. There's dynamics in terms of -- within orthopedics, how the mix shift from hospital into ASCs and so forth and how that plays out.

我們已經看到 24 更糟，我現在應該使用我的目標。它比 23 年更接近正常水平，我們預計 25 年會比這更接近正常水平，但還沒有完全恢復正常，對嗎？這就是思考過程的方式。在骨科領域存在動態，即混合體如何從醫院轉移到 ASC 等等，以及如何發揮作用。

But generally speaking, our long-term plan is based on going back to normal price levels. Before I get to the second question, you want to chime in, John?

但總體來說，我們的長期計劃是基於恢復正常價格水準。在我回答第二個問題之前，約翰，你想插嘴一下嗎？

Yes, just to give you a little bit of color on that. So 2024 pricing was roughly -- if the group level was up around 1.5% or so. And if you stripped out China roughly two, so tax has elevated levels for 2025 -- for the group level, we expect to be roughly flat.

是的，只是為了提供你一點顏色。因此，2024 年的定價大致是——如果集團水準上漲約 1.5% 左右。如果剔除中國，那麼到 2025 年，稅收水準將有所提高——就集團層級而言，我們預計該水準將大致持平。

The next China would be roughly up 50 bps. So as Deepak says, we're expecting that benefit from price to come off significantly in 2025. That's fully baked in to our forecast and our guidance for the year.

下一次中國利率將約上漲50個基點。正如 Deepak 所說，我們預計價格效益將在 2025 年大幅下降。這完全符合我們對今年的預測和指導。

So regarding margin, I wouldn't anchor to either the low end or the high end of that range. So the intent here actually is not necessarily to be more conservative in our forecast. I mean coming off of a margin target that we had in '25 is not an easily done thing. It was a very painful thing for me personally to have to come off of that.

因此，就保證金而言，我不會錨定在該範圍的低端或高端。因此，我們的預測實際上並不一定更加保守。我的意思是，要實現我們在 25 年設定的利潤目標並不是一件容易的事。對我個人來說，放棄這件事是一件非常痛苦的事。

Having said that, what you also don't want to do is put forward something and then have to revise it again, right? So what we're dealing with is significant uncertainty around China. Bottom line, the reason for this range China. We've commented on how sports joint repair played out a little differently than we had set out.

話雖如此，您也不想做的是提出某些想法然後必須再次修改它，對嗎？因此，我們面臨的是中國週邊的重大不確定性。底線是，這個範圍的原因是中國。我們已經評論過運動關節修復的進展與我們之前設想的略有不同。

We've -- so the range we provided takes that into account but it also takes into account AET, which is the other part of sports that's come through. So that range gives us the ability to deliver within that. But like I said, I wouldn't anchor the low end or the high end of that range.

我們——所以我們提供的範圍不僅考慮到了這一點，還考慮到了 AET，這是體育運動的另一部分。因此，該範圍使我們能夠在該範圍內交付。但就像我說的，我不會固定該範圍的低端或高端。

And as we progress through the year, certainly, at Q1, we'll be able to tighten up that range for you. Recognizing what John said in his remarks, which is -- this will be another year where for a variety of reasons, it's going to be a story of Q2 or H2 margin step up.

隨著今年的進展，當然，在第一季度，我們將能夠為您縮小這一範圍。認識到約翰在演講中所說的內容，那就是 - 由於各種原因，今年又將是第二季度或下半年利潤率上升的故事。

And that's been generally how the last two years have played out. H1 looks a year on year and the benefits come through in H2. That's been the story of '23, it was a story the factors have been different in each of those years, but that will be how '25 plays out as well.

過去兩年的情況大致如此。H1 與去年同期相比有所提升，而收益在 H2 中顯現出來。這就是 23 年的故事，每一年的故事因素都不同，但 25 年的故事也將如此。

If you think about the three key levers for margin in 2025 being operational leverage, China reflects cost savings. Obviously, there's a scenario. If we don't recover US auto to the extent that we have said we will, that will mean we're at the bottom end of our range. If we did recover or do better, that will be -- we're at the top end of our range.

如果您認為 2025 年利潤的三個關鍵槓桿是營運槓桿，那麼中國體現的是成本節約。顯然，存在這樣的情況。如果美國汽車市場的復甦幅度沒有達到我們所說的程度，那就意味著我們處於最低水準。如果我們確實恢復了或做得更好，那將是——我們處於最高水平。

On China, we've baked in 100 bps of margin dilution, 110 bps of margin dilution in our bridge. That reflects both the sales reductions that I talked about earlier across both Orthopedics and sports. So I think we've baked that in, but there's always uncertainty around that, of course, it's very difficult to forecast.

對於中國市場，我們已將 100 個基點的利潤稀釋納入考量，將 110 個基點的利潤稀釋納入考量。這反映了我之前談到的骨科和體育領域的銷售額下降。所以我認為我們已經考慮到了這一點，但這總是存在不確定性，當然，這很難預測。

But we've baked that in. And then the cost savings, I feel pretty confident on the cost savings to the degree that we've got 51 programs that drive those cost savings, half of which are already embedded and complete, the other half of which are close to.

但我們已經將其融入其中。然後是成本節約，我對成本節約非常有信心，因為我們有 51 個項目可以推動這些成本節約，其中一半已經嵌入並完成，另一半已經接近完成。

So we've got pretty good visibility to the cost savings. So I think in order of risk, you've got the operational leverage piece, then China and then cost savings where we've got pretty good visibility but they would -- the mix of those will determine the bottom and the top end of the range.

因此，我們對成本節省有相當好的了解。因此，我認為按照風險的順序，首先是營運槓桿部分，然後是中國，然後是成本節約，我們對這些方面有相當好的了解，但它們的組合將決定範圍的底端和頂端。

That's great. Thanks, John. So one to two more questions in the room, we've got a bunch queued up over the phone. David and then we'll come back.

那太棒了。謝謝，約翰。所以房間裡還有一到兩個問題，我們已經透過電話排隊等待提問了。大衛，然後我們再回來。

David Adlington, JPMorgan. Just in terms of -- on the inventory side, maybe for John. Any targets you're willing to share in terms of how much you might reduce inventory this year? And then related to that, how we should be thinking about free cash flow evolving from last year because last year was obviously very good.

摩根大通的戴維‧阿德林頓。就庫存方面而言，也許對約翰來說是這樣。您願意分享今年可能減少多少庫存的目標嗎？與此相關的是，我們應該如何考慮自由現金流從去年開始的變化，因為去年顯然非常好。

And then just on margins, obviously, cost savings coming through or getting some top line leverage. How are you thinking about margins beyond '25 and how much you might need to reinvest versus allowing it to drop to? Do you take the inventory?

然後就利潤率而言，顯然可以節省成本或獲得一些頂線槓桿。您如何考慮 25 年以後的利潤率，以及您可能需要再投資多少而不是讓它下降到多少？你們清點庫存嗎？

Look, on inventory, we're not going to give specific targets. I think we said we've made good progress this year. You've seen at both the group level. And more importantly, I think in every single business unit level, we've made good progress on DI. We also make the point that the quality of our inventory is better.

關於庫存，我們不會給出具體的目標。我想我們今年已經取得了良好的進展。您已經在兩個群體層面上看到了這一點。更重要的是，我認為在每個業務部門層面，我們在 DI 方面都取得了良好的進展。我們也強調，我們的庫存品質更好。

So we've had a buildup of of inventory, obviously, for new product launches, but that's meant that the stuff that doesn't turn very quickly. We've actually reduced the number of those units by about 17%. So we're both improving the day sales inventory and also the quality of our inventory.

因此，顯然，為了推出新產品，我們已經累積了一定數量的庫存，但這意味著這些產品的周轉速度不會很快。實際上，我們已經將這些單位的數量減少了約 17%。因此，我們既要提高日銷售庫存，也要提高庫存品質。

I think in terms of targets for 2025, we're not going to be specific on that, but you've seen the direction of travel, and we want to try and maintain that direction to travel through 2025. If you -- how does that impact on our free cash flow.

我認為就 2025 年的目標而言，我們不會具體說明，但您已經看到了旅行的方向，我們希望努力保持這個方向，直到 2025 年。如果您—這會對我們的自由現金流產生什麼影響？

While we said free cash flow will be north of $600 million for the year versus the $551 million in '24, I'd like to beat that. I think we've got -- we've built some -- there's a little bit of a step-up in the CapEx as a consequence of our new facility that we're installing in Melton, in Northeast.

雖然我們說過，今年的自由現金流將超過 6 億美元，而 24 年為 5.51 億美元，但我希望超過這個數字。我認為我們已經——我們已經建造了一些——由於我們在東北部梅爾頓安裝的新設施，資本支出略有增加。

But I think we should be aiming to try and be driving north of $600 million and maybe getting to $650 million in terms of free cash flow for the year. that should see our leverage reduced from the 1.9 times we exited this year down to 1.6 times at the end of 2025.

但我認為，我們應該努力將今年的自由現金流提高到 6 億美元以上，甚至達到 6.5 億美元。這應該會使我們的槓桿率從今年的 1.9 倍降至 2025 年底的 1.6 倍。

That's the direction of travel that we're going and in terms of margin beyond '25, look, we're not going to sit here and give guidance at '26 and '27, but we said frequently that you saw the cash -- the cost savings come through for this year at $210 million over the last two years. We should be trying to get that to close to north of $300 million coming through in 2025. We said $325 million to $375 million overall.

這就是我們前進的方向，至於 25 年以後的利潤率，你看，我們不會坐在這裡給出 26 年和 27 年的指導，但我們經常說，你看到了現金——今年的成本節約在過去兩年中達到了 2.1 億美元。我們應該努力使這一數字在 2025 年達到 3 億美元左右。我們說整體是3.25億到3.75億美元。

So some of that will come through in '26 and '27. Some will be a new savings. Some will be annualization of 2025 savings, but we do expect our margin to accrete through '26 and '27.

因此其中一些將在 26 年和 27 年實現。有些將會是新的儲蓄。其中一些將是 2025 年儲蓄的年化，但我們確實預計我們的利潤率將在 2026 年和 2027 年增加。

Kane Slutzkin, Deutsche. Just on robotics, we haven't spoken too much about Cori. I'm just wondering, you've obviously got Mako and Roseland of large footprint space. But just in the -- in terms of any color you can share on the competitive landscape in the small footprint space where Cori plays, whether it be J&J or think many or the other one -- just any commentary there. It sounds like you're gaining some decent momentum.

凱恩·斯盧茨金（Kane Slutzkin），德國。就機器人技術而言，我們還沒有談論太多有關 Cori 的事情。我只是想知道，你顯然擁有佔地面積很大的 Mako 和 Roseland。但就 — — 就 Cori 所在的小空間領域的競爭格局而言，你可以分享任何色彩，無論是強生公司還是其他公司 — — 只是任何評論。聽起來你正在獲得一些不錯的動力。

Yes. We -- first of all, very pleased with the traction we're getting with chlorite. We're not dissecting the market into small footprint, large footprint. It's the robotics market that enables surges to implant knees or hips shoulder. And what I'm pleased about is not only the gross number, but where we're actually placing Cori.

是的。首先，我們對綠泥石所取得的進展感到非常高興。我們不會將市場劃分為小規模市場和大規模市場。機器人市場使得人們能夠植入膝蓋、臀部和肩部等器官。令我高興的不僅是總數，還有我們實際安置 Cori 的位置。

We're placing them in academic medical institutions where historically, we've had -- we've been under-indexed replacing them in the ASC that slightly higher proportion than our overall share, speaking to the value proposition -- the broad value proposition that Cori has.

我們將它們安置在學術醫療機構中，從歷史上看，我們在 ASC 中的比例一直較低，而我們在 ASC 中替換它們的比例略高於我們的整體份額，這體現了價值主張——Cori 的廣泛價值主張。

But what I'm also pleased with is the level of utilization. We could be running a place first type of strategy. That's not what we're doing. We're actually placing them where there is demand and where we place them the utilization is at a nice level. So very pleased with the traction that we're getting.

但同樣令我滿意的是利用率。我們可以實施「地點優先」類型的策略。這不是我們要做的事。我們實際上將它們放置在有需求的地方，並且放置它們的地方利用率處於良好的水平。我們對所取得的進展感到非常高興。

And as we indicated since '22, we've invested in fully featuring Cori. We started out, for example, with a milling based approach. We've got feedback from the market, the surgeon preferences run from cutting and range from cutting and milling.

正如我們自 22 年以來所指出的那樣，我們已投入大量資金來全面展示 Cori。例如，我們開始採用基於銑削的方法。我們得到了市場回饋，外科醫生的偏好包括切割以及切割和銑削。

So we brought forward cutting functionality on to Cori, which we had originally not started off with. It's the only platform and actually coming and taking a step back, Cori has some features that only it has, right?

因此，我們將剪切功能引入了 Cori，而我們最初並沒有此功能。它是唯一的平台，實際上退一步來看，Cori 有一些只有它才具備的功能，對嗎？

Cori isthe only platform that's able to do revisions. -- because we offer both image and image free solutions, right? We were the only platform that's able to do soft tissue balance before the surgeon ever cuts. So each one of these things aren't on their own going to move the needle on the combination is what we're looking for. It's starting to play itself out that way.

Cori 是唯一能夠進行修改的平台。 ——因為我們提供影像和無影像解決方案，對嗎？我們是唯一能夠在外科醫生進行手術之前實現軟組織平衡的平台。因此，這些因素中的任何一個單獨出現都不會對結果產生影響，而我們所尋求的是兩者結合的結果。事情開始朝著這個方向發展。

And as I commented on around Cori's applicability for shoulder, at the start of the 12-point plan, we didn't think about having that program, but we actually pulled it in because we see the potential for the footprint that Cori has. It's not a large installed base, is a handheld thing.

正如我評論 Cori 對肩部的適用性時所說的那樣，在 12 點計劃開始時，我們並沒有考慮過這個項目，但我們實際上把它拉了進來，因為我們看到了 Cori 的足蹟的潛力。它的安裝基礎並不大，是一種手持設備。

It lends itself to the shoulder space. We are on the arthroplasty side, a relatively small player in shoulder. So it's not just about having Cori, but we've got to have a full implant portfolio. And as you know, we're on a path, right? We're in the early stages of launch of Aetos shoulder and that's going to play itself out.

它適合肩部空間。我們從事關節置換術，在肩關節領域相對較小。因此，我們不僅需要擁有 Cori，還必須擁有完整的植入物組合。如你所知，我們已經走在正確的道路上，對嗎？我們正處於 Aetos 肩部產品的推出初期階段，該產品將會順利上市。

So this is a platform that we expect to build on. We've got great proof points already to build on it. And so overall, I feel good about how we're positioned competitively with the port

所以這是我們期望建構的平台。我們已擁有充分的證據來證明這一點。總的來說，我對我們的港口競爭力感到滿意

John, just maybe a quick one for you. Just on slide 26 on the ROIC. You're probably not going to want to answer this post '25. But just I mean, you haven't put the numbers in, but it looks as if Ortho is doubling its ROIC. That's a chart Sorry. Yes. Just wondering we're expecting to double the ROIC.

約翰，也許我只想快速地問你一下。就在 ROIC 的第 26 張投影片上。您可能不會想回答這個帖子‘25。但我的意思是，你還沒有輸入數字，但看起來 Ortho 的 ROIC 翻了一番。那是一張圖表，抱歉。是的。只是想知道我們是否希望 ROIC 翻倍。

Yes, the right.

是的，沒錯。

Assuming, obviously, you're working your way up to market growth. You haven't fully annualized that number clearly, but just in '26, assuming you do get there, should we assume that the ROIC will exceed WACC in post year? And if it doesn't, how long do you give yourselves.

顯然，假設您正在努力實現市場成長。您還沒有明確地將該數字完全年化，但就在 26 年，假設您確實達到了這個數字，我們是否應該假設 ROIC 將在年後超過 WACC？如果沒有的話，你們給自己多久？

So I'm not going to get drawn on when we'll cross the cost of capital line in also. But our expectations would suggest it's sometime between 26% and 27%. So we'll see how we progress this year, but certainly a big step up in '25, so doubling in '25. And then with a view to getting to our cost of capital sometime in '26 and '27.

因此，當我們跨越資本成本線時，我不會受到困擾。但我們的預期是，這一比例將在 26% 至 27% 之間。因此，我們將看看今年的進展如何，但 25 年肯定會有一大步，所以 25 年會翻倍。然後著眼於在 26 年和 27 年的某個時候達到我們的資本成本。

The key driver there is US recon performance and so what you look for is continued improvement. And obviously, we saw a sequential improvement in '24. We expect to build on that in '25. So that will be the key lead indicator of how we're going to do in ROI. So we want to take on the phone, so I think we've got Graham Doyle on the phone, so a get to them first.

其中的關鍵驅動因素是美國偵察性能，因此您所期待的是持續的改進。顯然，我們看到了 24 年的連續改善。我們希望在 25 年的基礎上再接再厲。因此，這將是我們在投資報酬率方面表現如何的關鍵領先指標。所以我們想接聽電話，所以我認為我們已經聯繫了 Graham Doyle，所以我們先聯繫他們。

Just two for me, one on China and one on ortho margin. Just on China, in terms of the -- I suppose the Ortho and Sports Med business. I suspect the question now. Is there -- is there a path where you basically just shut this business down.

對我來說只有兩個，一個關於中國，一個關於鄰邊。就中國而言，我想是矯形和運動醫學業務。我現在懷疑這個問題。有沒有辦法基本上關閉這項業務？

Presumably, we're not in margin-accretive territory today -- so just your thoughts on that and what will be a go, no-go decision? And then on the plant closure, so those are coming through and you're obviously seeing better profits coming through in US or in particular.

據推測，我們今天還沒有進入利潤成長領域——那麼您對此有何看法？什麼是可以做的，什麼是不可以做的決定？然後是工廠關閉，這些都在進行中，你顯然會看到美國或特別是美國的利潤增加。

Is there anything we need to think about in terms of the cost of the inventory you hold today and when this better or lower COGS inventory comes through? And then just as a sense for us, how much profitable is US ortho, given the fixed cost there?

就您目前持有的庫存成本以及何時出現更好或更低的 COGS 庫存而言，我們需要考慮什麼嗎？那麼，就我們的角度而言，考慮到美國的固定成本，美國的矯正利潤是多少？

Because if we think about the Q4 benefit and the context of the guide cut in late October and obviously, the change there. And then we think about the better momentum continuing into 2025 is just to get a sense of like how much more profitable is this than, say, some of the other businesses that have been growing in the last two or three years?

因為如果我們考慮第四季的收益和 10 月底指南削減的背景，顯然就會發生改變。然後，我們思考一下這種更好的勢頭是否會持續到 2025 年，只是為了了解一下這比過去兩三年內一直在增長的其他一些企業的利潤高出多少？

You were acoustically hard to hear the second part of the question. So I'll do my best in terms of what I understood it to be. But going to the first thing about China. So China orthopedics today at DBP price levels is not a profitable business for us. Why are we in it?

從聽覺上來說，你很難聽清楚問題的第二部分。因此，我會盡我所能，按照我的理解去做。但首先要談的是中國。因此，目前以 DBP 價格水準來看，中國骨科業務對我們來說並不是一項有利可圖的業務。我們為什麼身處其中？

First, it's giving ourselves the opportunity to see how the market evolves and in particular, how robotics gets adopted in that market. in order for us to do that, you need to maintain a certain level of presence and actually have direct some efforts in developing the robotics market.

首先，它讓我們有機會了解市場如何發展，特別是機器人技術如何在該市場中得到應用。為了做到這一點，我們需要保持一定的存在感，並在開發機器人市場方面做出一些直接的努力。

And so depending on how that develops, China could get back to, not what it was in terms of attractiveness from a profitability standpoint, but to a better place than it is today. So we're in orthopedics today to see how that market actually develops.

因此，根據情況發展，中國可能會恢復到以前的狀態，雖然不是從獲利角度看吸引力，但會比現在更好。因此，我們今天討論的是骨科市場，看看該市場實際上是如何發展的。

And Sports is a better picture from a profitability standpoint post the price -- I mean, obviously, it is a straight impact to bottom line, right? So there is no -- although we've adopted the channel to take BBP Pricing into account, it's pretty much a good fall-through impact and it's a fairly complicated picture.

從獲利能力的角度來看，體育在價格上漲後表現更好——我的意思是，顯然這會對底線產生直接影響，對吧？因此沒有——儘管我們採用了將 BBP 定價考慮在內的管道，但這幾乎是一個很好的下降影響，而且是一個相當複雜的情況。

But suffice it to say, as we go into '26 and '27 as inflation and the impact of inflation recedes, you should start to see what has been a significant headwind turn into a more neutral picture as it comes into our P&L. And John, did you catch his question on the '25 guidance?

但可以說，隨著我們進入 26 年和 27 年，通貨膨脹及其影響逐漸消退，您應該開始看到，在我們的損益表中，曾經的重大逆風已經變成了更加中性的景象。約翰，你有沒有註意到他關於 25 個指導意見的問題？

I didn't catch the question, but I just got to build on the last one. Just on the plant closures, just to be clear. we're already starting to see in cash terms, the benefit of those plant closures coming through in terms of our cost of production.

我沒聽懂問題，但我必須繼續回答最後一個問題。只是為了清楚起見，只談工廠關閉的情況。從現金角度來看，我們已經開始看到工廠關閉對我們的生產成本的好處。

But as Deepak says, there's -- so that's moving in a positive direction. At the moment, it's being offset by the inventory reval and hence, why the gross margin moved backwards slightly year on year, but also the China pricing effects.

但正如迪帕克所說，這是朝著正面的方向發展的。目前，這一影響被庫存重新估價所抵消，因此導致毛利率同比略有下降，同時也受到中國定價的影響。

Over time, it takes about a year or so in our Ortho business for the benefits of those lower production costs to flow through that inventory. And that's why we're saying the second half of this year is when we're going to see that benefit come through.

隨著時間的推移，我們的 Ortho 業務大約需要一年左右的時間才能從較低的生產成本中獲益。這就是為什麼我們說今年下半年我們將看到這項好處的實現。

So it's not like we're not enjoying the lower cost today. It just takes about 12 months or so to flow through into the P&L that's what gives us pretty good visibility on the numbers as we come through the second half. So I just want to make that point clear. And I didn't catch the second question you have to --

所以，這並不代表我們今天就無法享受到較低的代價。它只需要大約 12 個月左右的時間就可以流入損益表，這使得我們在下半年能夠很好地了解數字。所以我只是想澄清這一點。我沒聽清楚你要問的第二個問題--

We need to get to all the phone, but Gram is a 30-second repeat of your -- the second part of your question.

我們需要接聽所有電話，但 Gram 會用 30 秒的時間重複您問題的第二部分。

That's great. Appreciate it.

那太棒了。非常感謝。

Thanks, Graham. So we go to Hassan from Barclays.

謝謝，格雷厄姆。因此我們去找巴克萊銀行的哈桑。

Can you hear me? Perfect. Hasan Araki from Barclays. Three from me, please. Firstly, just on Q1 and the lower growth here, what could this look like ex China -- and how should we think about group growth in Q2 and whether you expect that to be within the guidance range -- just trying to understand how back-end loaded the year is from a growth perspective?

你聽得到我嗎？完美的。巴克萊銀行的 Hasan Araki。請給我三張。首先，僅就第一季度和這裡的較低增長而言，中國以外的情況會是什麼樣子——我們應該如何看待第二季度的集團增長，以及您是否預計該增長將在指導範圍內——只是想從增長角度了解今年的後端負載如何？

And then secondly, related to this, on margins, it's not unusual to have 300 basis points of margin differential between H1 and H2. But should we expect a more pronounced difference given the softer first half growth expectations?

其次，與此相關，就利潤率而言，上半年和下半年之間出現 300 個基點的利潤率差異並不罕見。但考慮到上半年成長預期較弱，我們是否應該預期差異會更加明顯？

And then finally, just on the additional VBP in AEP. Thank you for quantifying, could you walk us through some of the underlying assumptions in terms of price reduction and volume changes that you've baked in? And what is left in sports medicine in China that hasn't yet had VBP and how are you thinking about risks here over time?

最後，只需在 AEP 中加入 VBP。感謝您的量化，您能否向我們介紹您在降價和數量變化方面所考慮的一些基本假設？那麼，中國的運動醫學領域還有哪些領域尚未出現 VBP？您如何看待這一領域的長期風險？

Okay. So maybe I'll take the last one first and then the next to last and John, you can take the quarterly phasing. So in terms of AAT, it's a -- as we indicated, in terms of the top line impact, we called out about $25 million of impact of AAT. It is significantly smaller than our joint repair business.

好的。因此，也許我會先採取最後一個，然後再採取倒數第二個，約翰，你可以採取按季度分階段的做法。因此，就 AAT 而言，正如我們所指出的，就頂線影響而言，我們預計 AAT 的影響約為 2500 萬美元。它比我們的聯合修復業務規模小得多。

So for AET is a big part, but for a group level, it's not as big a portion. But once BBP gets hit with AAT or hits AAT, this essentially that covers the range of impact for the China Sports Medicine business. So there's not really a lot left after this. There's a bit of capital, but that's about it.

因此，對於 AET 來說，這是一個很大的一部分，但對於集團層級來說，它所佔的比例並不大。但一旦BBP受到AAT的打擊或觸及AAT，這基本上就涵蓋了對中國運動醫學業務的影響範圍。因此，這之後剩下的就不多了。資本是有點，但僅此而已。

In terms of the type of margin step-up H1 to H2 that we're expecting, what's implied in our models is not a unprecedented level of H1 to H2 margin step-up in order to deliver the margin guidance that we've indicated.

就我們預期的上半年至下半年利潤率上升類型而言，我們的模型暗示，上半年至下半年的利潤率上升幅度並非史無前例，並非為了實現我們所指出的利潤率指引。

And as you can probably do the math, if you go back to several years in terms of the delta between H1 and H2 margins, what we're expecting in '25 is within the range we've seen. So you want to address the quarterly fee?

您可能已經計算過了，如果回顧過去幾年 H1 和 H2 利潤率之間的差異，我們預計 25 年的利潤率將處於我們所看到的範圍內。那麼您想解決季度費用問題嗎？

I'll just come very quickly to the last one. Just on the $25 million that we've guided to on AET, that's roughly split about $15 million of that is price and volume and about $10 million is channel adjustment. So that gives you a little bit of flavor as to the shape of that impact. The half one, half two split, I'd look to 2023. That's a good benchmark in terms of the level of step-up.

我就很快講到最後一個問題。僅在我們為 AET 提供的 2500 萬美元指導中，大約有 1500 萬美元用於價格和交易量，約 1000 萬美元用於渠道調整。這樣您就可以稍微了解撞擊的形狀。我期待在 2023 年實現第一階段和第二階段的分割。就提升水平而言，這是一個很好的基準。

And in terms of the question around China. So if we look at our overall growth ex China, it is up obviously, there's about 140 bps of difference for the full year between our Inc. China and our group ex China growth. So China does have quite a big drag on the business.

關於中國的問題。因此，如果我們看一下除中國以外的整體成長情況，就會發現它顯然是上升的，我們中國公司和中國以外的集團全年成長之間存在約 140 個基點的差異。因此，中國確實對該業務造成了相當大的拖累。

In terms of our ADS growth ex China, we should be looking at around 5% or so for Q1. And Q2, we should be looking at around 8% or so and similar for Q3 and then a little bit down in Q4. So it's -- again, it's phased through the year, but we are expecting around 4% ADS growth ex China in Q1. Hopefully, that gives you a bit of color.

就中國以外地區的 ADS 成長率而言，我們預計第一季的成長率應在 5% 左右。在第二季度，我們應該會看到 8% 左右的增幅，第三季的增幅也差不多，而第四季會略有下降。所以 — — 再次強調，這是全年分階段進行的，但我們預計第一季除中國以外的 ADS 成長率約為 4%。希望這能帶給你一些啟發。

Good. So I think we'll need to leave it here in the interest of time. Thank you again for your interest and engagement and looking forward to coming back in a couple of months' time to give you a sense for how Q1 progress. So thank you very much.

好的。因此，我認為為了節省時間，我們需要將其留在這裡。再次感謝您的關注和參與，並期待幾個月後再次回來讓您了解第一季的進展。非常感謝。