Smith & Nephew PLC (SNN) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

So good morning, and welcome to the Smith & Nephew Full Year 2022 Results Presentation. I'm Deepak Nath, Chief Executive Officer. And joining me is Anne-Francoise Nesmes, who is the CFO of the company.

早上好，歡迎參加 Smith & Nephew 2022 年全年業績發布會。我是首席執行官 Deepak Nath。和我一起的是公司的首席財務官 Anne-Francoise Nesmes。

So I'm pleased to report a good finish to 2022. Underlying growth rate accelerated versus the first 9 months with all of our franchises contributing. We've continued to outperform in sports and wound management, which generate together 60% of group sales. We're still early in our work to fix orthopaedics. And although growth improved there, too, it will take some time for us to get to where we want to be.

因此，我很高興地向大家報告 2022 年取得了良好的成績。與前 9 個月相比，基礎增長率有所加快，我們所有的特許經營權都做出了貢獻。我們在運動和傷口管理方面繼續表現出色，它們共產生了集團銷售額的 60%。我們修復骨科的工作仍處於早期階段。儘管那裡的增長也有所改善，但我們需要一些時間才能達到我們想要達到的目標。

The company is well positioned going into 2023, and we're transforming the way we're operating Smith & Nephew through our 12-point plan, driving greater rigor and execution as we deliver our strategy for growth. Delivery of the 12-point plan is progressing, and our KPIs are already moving in the right direction, and I'll share some of that data with you later.

公司在進入 2023 年時處於有利地位，我們正在通過我們的 12 點計劃改變我們經營 Smith & Nephew 的方式，在我們實現增長戰略時推動更嚴格和執行。 12 點計劃的交付正在取得進展，我們的 KPI 已經朝著正確的方向發展，稍後我將與您分享其中的一些數據。

But with improving operations and a good exit to 2022, we expect both faster growth and margin expansion in the coming year. We're also updating our midterm targets. On growth, we feel very good about the outlook. We're continuing to execute well in our outperforming businesses. And the fix of orthopaedics is underway, and we're delivering a high cadence of innovation.

但隨著運營的改善和到 2022 年的良好退出，我們預計來年將實現更快的增長和利潤率擴張。我們還更新了我們的中期目標。在增長方面，我們對前景感到非常樂觀。我們在表現出色的業務中繼續表現出色。骨科的修復正在進行中，我們正在提供高節奏的創新。

For the margin, the macro environment has been more challenging than me or anyone else expected back in 2021. Inflation has been higher, and global supply chains have stayed disrupted for longer. And our midterm goals reflect offsetting most of that additional pressure through a range of cost actions.

就利潤率而言，宏觀環境比我或其他任何人在 2021 年的預期更具挑戰性。通貨膨脹率更高，全球供應鏈中斷的時間更長。我們的中期目標反映了通過一系列成本行動抵消了大部分額外壓力。

However, it's also and moving the date of our margin target back by a year. Shortly, I'll cover how we'll deliver the targets of consistent 5% growth or above and at least a 20% trading margin by 2025. I see the delivery and more importantly, the fundamental improvements we're making required to achieve them as the first step and our ambition to transform Smith & Nephew.

然而，它也將我們的保證金目標日期推遲了一年。很快，我將介紹我們將如何實現到 2025 年實現 5% 或以上的持續增長以及至少 20% 的交易利潤率的目標。我看到了交付，更重要的是，我們正在做出實現這些目標所需的根本改進作為改造 Smith & Nephew 的第一步和我們的雄心壯志。

But first, I'll begin with the highlights of our full year numbers. So revenue was up -- was at $5.2 billion, and that's 4.7% growth on an underlying basis with 1 less trading day in 2021.

但首先，我將從我們全年數字的亮點開始。因此收入增加了——達到 52 億美元，基礎增長 4.7%，2021 年交易日減少 1 個。

Reported growth was at 0.1%. Trading profit was $901 million, which is a 17.3% trading margin. And we generated $444 million in trading cash flow, which is a 49% conversion. Adjusted earnings per share grew 1.1% to $0.818, We're proposing an unchanged dividend of $0.375 for 2022. I'll now pass you to Anne-Francoise to go through the detail of today's results before back to discuss our outlook in more detail. Anne-Francoise?

報告的增長率為 0.1%。交易利潤為 9.01 億美元，交易利潤率為 17.3%。我們產生了 4.44 億美元的交易現金流，轉換率為 49%。調整後每股收益增長 1.1% 至 0.818 美元，我們提議 2022 年的股息保持不變，為 0.375 美元。我現在請安妮-弗朗索瓦斯詳細了解今天的業績，然後再回來更詳細地討論我們的前景。安弗朗索瓦絲？

Thank you, Deepak, and good morning, everyone. I always wonder why nobody sits on the first row. So hopefully, you can see me behind the lectern here.

謝謝你，Deepak，大家早上好。我總是想知道為什麼沒有人坐在第一排。希望你們能在這裡的講台後面看到我。

So I'll start by covering the fourth quarter revenue, which was $1.4 billion, which represents a 6.8% underlying growth. As Deepak said, all 3 franchises contributed to the strong finish. And the factors behind that included reduced VBP headwind in the quarter and the contribution of new products. We've also made progress with the availability -- with product availability, which has limited our growth in recent quarters. Our internal supply chain performance is starting to improve. And while there are still challenges in the availability of external inputs like semiconductor, resin, sterilization capacity, we're seeing some easing.

因此，我將首先介紹第四季度的收入，即 14 億美元，代表 6.8% 的基礎增長。正如迪帕克所說，所有 3 個特許經營權都為強勢結束做出了貢獻。其背後的因素包括本季度減少 VBP 逆風和新產品的貢獻。我們在可用性方面也取得了進展——產品可用性限制了我們最近幾個季度的增長。我們的內部供應鏈績效開始改善。儘管在半導體、樹脂、滅菌能力等外部投入的可用性方面仍然存在挑戰，但我們看到一些緩解措施。

Looking by geography, the performance was broad-based. The U.S. grew by 4.8%. Other established markets grew 7.3%, and emerging markets grew 12.1%. We acceleration in emerging markets reflects largely a return to growth in China, which represents 6% of our group sales.

從地域來看，表現廣泛。美國增長了 4.8%。其他成熟市場增長 7.3%，新興市場增長 12.1%。我們在新興市場的加速在很大程度上反映了中國的增長回歸，中國占我們集團銷售額的 6%。

And while VBP was still a headwind in Q4, there was also an easier prior year comparator due to the inventory adjustments and the provision that we took back in Q4 2021. The renewed COVID waves in China as the country changed its approach to new outbreaks and an initial limited impact in Q4 to increase as we move into January 2023. So we do expect a more noticeable headwind in Q1. I'll now go into the detail of the each franchise, and I'll start with Orthopaedics, which grew 4.1% underlying.

儘管 VBP 在第四季度仍然是一個不利因素，但由於庫存調整和我們在 2021 年第四季度收回的準備金，前一年的比較也比較容易。隨著中國改變應對新疫情的方法，新的 COVID 浪潮在中國掀起隨著我們進入 2023 年 1 月，第四季度最初的有限影響會增加。因此我們確實預計第一季度會有更明顯的逆風。我現在將詳細介紹每個特許經營權，我將從骨科開始，它的基礎增長了 4.1%。

Now this is the part of our business which is the most -- which is impacted by VBP. Without China, growth in the quarter would have been 1 percentage point higher in Knees, 2 percentage points higher in Hips and 0.4 points higher in Trauma and Extremities. That aside, innovation across the portfolio is a key part of our picture and our performance. Recent launches are already contributing to the growth. And together with our robust pipeline are improving our growth outlook for the coming years.

現在這是我們業務中受 VBP 影響最大的部分。如果沒有中國，本季度膝蓋的增長率將高出 1 個百分點，臀部高出 2 個百分點，創傷和四肢高出 0.4 個百分點。除此之外，整個產品組合的創新是我們形象和業績的關鍵部分。最近的發布已經為增長做出了貢獻。加上我們強大的管道正在改善我們未來幾年的增長前景。

In Hips and Knees, we've advanced with our plan to improve our performance, including new product launches. First, our cementless total knee, LEGION CONCELOC, continued to ramp up with strong sequential growth. With this as an auction, we have an impressive new portfolio. We have done kinematic knee. We have the OXINIUM surface technology. We have cemented and cementless options, and the robotics platform uniquely covering all of Total, Uni and Revision knee surgery.

在 Hips and Knees 方面，我們推進了提高績效的計劃，包括新產品發布。首先，我們的非骨水泥全膝關節 LEGION CONCELOC 繼續保持強勁的連續增長。通過此次拍賣，我們擁有令人印象深刻的新投資組合。我們已經完成了運動膝關節。我們擁有 OXINIUM 表面技術。我們有骨水泥和非骨水泥選項，機器人平台獨特地涵蓋了所有全膝關節、單膝關節和翻修膝關節手術。

Our implant availability also improved over the previous quarter. Overall growth is not there yet where we aim it to be, but we're in a better position here than we were when we initiated the 12-point plan, and we expect further improvement in the coming quarters.

我們的植入物可用性也比上一季度有所改善。總體增長尚未達到我們的目標，但我們現在的處境比我們啟動 12 點計劃時更好，我們預計未來幾個季度會有進一步改善。

Other recon, which includes CORI, was paced by component availability for much of the year. However, we still made progress in 2022, both in developing the technology and expanding the utilization of CORI. We had a series of major FDA clearance, including a unique revision indication, the unique digital tensioner, the hip software and (inaudible). And we expect a similar cadence of clearances in 2023.

包括 CORI 在內的其他偵察行動在一年中的大部分時間裡都是根據組件可用性來進行的。然而，我們在 2022 年仍然取得了進展，無論是在開發技術還是擴大 CORI 的利用方面。我們獲得了一系列主要的 FDA 批准，包括獨特的修訂適應症、獨特的數字張緊器、髖關節軟件和（聽不清）。我們預計 2023 年會有類似的審批節奏。

This is part of our robust pipeline of innovation that will continue to drive growth in the coming quarters. On penetration for CORI, we also expanded our installed base by around 25% in the year and the volume of knee procedures by around 50% globally. And we should see adoption accelerating 2023 as supply improved, and we expect our installed base to grow by more than 300 units in the year.

這是我們強大的創新渠道的一部分，將繼續推動未來幾個季度的增長。在 CORI 的滲透率方面，我們的安裝基數在這一年也擴大了約 25%，全球膝關節手術量增加了約 50%。隨著供應的改善，我們應該會在 2023 年看到加速採用，我們預計我們的裝機量將在今年增長 300 多台。

And finally, Trauma & Extremities returned to growth at 0.6% in the quarter, helped by the rollout of EVOS Large Plates following our launch in the U.S. Our trauma offerings is now complete, and we're well positioned to compete in RFPs and tenders. And market exits such as the one we did in China Trauma, of value creating, but also to represent a short-term headwind in the quarter. Now moving to Sports Medicine and ENT franchise, which grew by 9.2% despite a challenged supply chain.

最後，創傷和肢體業務在本季度恢復了 0.6% 的增長，這得益於我們在美國推出 EVOS Large Plates 後的推出。我們的創傷產品現已完成，我們在 RFP 和招標中處於有利地位。市場退出，例如我們在 China Trauma 中所做的，創造了價值，但也代表了本季度的短期逆風。現在轉向運動醫學和耳鼻喉科特許經營，儘管供應鏈面臨挑戰，但仍增長了 9.2%。

Joint Repair grew 11.5% with double-digit growth in both shoulder and knee. And REGENETEN has been a multiyear driver of growth. We've continued to invest in new medication in new regions and evidence, and we are now seeing growth reaccelerate. There's also significant further potential for REGENETEN as we launch in Japan, in China and India in 2023.

關節修復業務增長 11.5%，其中肩部和膝部均實現兩位數增長。 REGENETEN 多年來一直是增長的驅動力。我們繼續在新地區和新證據上投資新藥，現在我們看到增長重新加速。隨著我們於 2023 年在日本、中國和印度推出，REGENETEN 還具有巨大的進一步潛力。

AET grew 4.2%, driven by both the core AET and WEREWOLF FASTSEAL and a softer prior year comparator. And ENT grew 1.7% as the post-COVID recovery in tonsil and adenoid procedure volumes continued. As I said earlier, this is in the context of headwinds from semiconductor, resin shortage, sterilization, capacity constraints, so a very strong performance.

AET 增長 4.2%，受核心 AET 和 WEREWOLF FASTSEAL 以及較軟的上一年比較器的推動。隨著扁桃體和腺樣體手術量在 COVID 後的恢復，耳鼻喉科增長了 1.7%。正如我之前所說，這是在半導體、樹脂短缺、滅菌、產能限制等不利因素的背景下，因此表現非常強勁。

Finally, in advanced food management grew 8% underlying, and the recent pattern of balanced performance in the quarter across all regions and all categories continued. In Advanced Wound Care, Europe and Asia Pacific showed particularly strong growth as with our skin substitutes business in bioactive.

最後，在先進的食品管理中，基本增長了 8%，並且本季度所有地區和所有類別的平衡表現的近期模式仍在繼續。在高級傷口護理方面，歐洲和亞太地區的生物活性皮膚替代品業務增長尤為強勁。

Advanced Wound Devices grew 14.9% with double-digit growth from our single-use negative pressure of product PICO. And our traditional platform, RENASYS is another product that was limited earlier in the year by component availability. The situation improved in Q4, and RENASYS returned to more significant growth as a result.

Advanced Wound Devices 增長了 14.9%，我們的一次性負壓產品 PICO 實現了兩位數的增長。而我們的傳統平台 RENASYS 是今年早些時候受組件可用性限制的另一款產品。第四季度情況有所改善，因此 RENASYS 恢復了更顯著的增長。

And we also reached a significant milestone as we obtain 510(k) clearance from FDA for RENASYS Edge in the U.S. Now I'll move on to the detail of the full year financials.

我們也達到了一個重要的里程碑，因為我們在美國獲得了 FDA 對 RENASYS Edge 的 510(k) 許可。現在我將繼續討論全年財務的細節。

Revenue for the full year was $5.2 billion, up 4.7% on an underlying basis compared to 2021. Revenue was flat at 0.1% reported revenue -- sorry, was flat at 0.1% due to foreign exchange headwinds of 460 basis points given the strength of the U.S. dollar compared to other major currencies.

全年收入為 52 億美元，與 2021 年相比基本增長 4.7%。收入持平於報告收入的 0.1%——抱歉，由於 460 個基點的外匯逆風，持平於 0.1%美元與其他主要貨幣的比較。

As you see on the chart here, Sports Medicine and wound shown 6.7% growth -- 6.7% and 6.4% growth, respectively, and orthopaedics grew 1.9%. This full year growth rate also reflect 1 fewer trading day than in 2021, as Deepak mentioned earlier.

正如您在此處的圖表中看到的，運動醫學和傷口顯示出 6.7% 的增長——分別增長 6.7% 和 6.4%，骨科增長 1.9%。正如 Deepak 之前提到的，這一全年增長率也反映出比 2021 年少了 1 個交易日。

Now having covered revenue in detail for Q4 and the full year, I'll now move to the summary of our P&L before expanding on some of the key elements of the P&L. The underlying gross profit was $3.7 billion, resulting in a gross margin of 71%, which is a decrease of 10 basis points. And you have to understand there were significant moving parts behind that.

現在已經詳細介紹了第四季度和全年的收入，在擴展損益表的一些關鍵要素之前，我現在將轉到我們的損益表摘要。基礎毛利潤為 37 億美元，毛利率為 71%，下降了 10 個基點。你必須明白這背後有重要的活動部分。

For this year, the headwind of raw materials inflation that we've talked about, our gross margin level was offset by price increases and other movements in inventory valuation. The SG&A line here in the P&L reflects higher inflation in freight and logistics as well as sales and marketing expenditure levels returning to normal after COVID.

對於今年，我們談到的原材料通脹的逆風，我們的毛利率水平被價格上漲和庫存估值的其他變動所抵消。損益表中的 SG&A 線反映了貨運和物流的通脹上升以及銷售和營銷支出水平在 COVID 後恢復正常。

Trading profit was $901 million, with the trade pressure increased as the year progressed and ultimately came to 210 basis points for the full year. And we worked hard to offset the headwinds. Notably, we were able to drive price increases, improving margin by 80 basis points.

交易利潤為 9.01 億美元，貿易壓力隨著時間的推移而增加，最終達到全年 210 個基點。我們努力抵消逆風。值得注意的是，我們能夠推動價格上漲，將利潤率提高 80 個基點。

And then we had a lot of activities on the slide here maybe is too much of a summary, but there's a lot of moving part behind the net pricing and the net cost savings you see here of 130 basis points. In particular, the 130 basis points reflect the benefits of significant cost reductions and operating leverage offsetting labor inflation. Now looking further down the P&L.

然後我們在幻燈片上進行了很多活動，這裡的總結可能太多了，但淨定價背後有很多變化，你在這裡看到的 130 個基點的淨成本節省。特別是，130 個基點反映了顯著降低成本和抵消勞動力通脹的經營槓桿的好處。現在進一步查看損益表。

Adjusted earnings per share grew by 1% to $0.811, and that's primarily driven by lower net financial expenses and a lower tax rate due to adjustments in respect of prior years.

調整後每股收益增長 1% 至 0.811 美元，這主要是由於前幾年的調整導致淨財務費用下降和稅率下降。

Looking at our cash flow, we generated trading cash flow of $444 million in the period, with trading cash conversion at 49%, which is disappointing and lower than our typical level. We do expect our trading cash conversion to return to more normal historical levels in 2023, however.

從我們的現金流來看，我們在此期間產生了 4.44 億美元的交易現金流，交易現金轉換率為 49%，這令人失望，低於我們的典型水平。然而，我們確實預計我們的交易現金轉換將在 2023 年恢復到更正常的歷史水平。

The change in 2022 was mainly due to a higher inventory, which you can see in the capital outflow of $477 million. And we wanted to illustrate and explain the change in the inventory and what drove the inventory growth. The largest single contributor of inventory growth was strategic raw material buying as part of managing through the unpredictable availability of some materials. You can also see here the impact on inflation on the average value of our inventory.

2022 年的變化主要是由於庫存增加，您可以從 4.77 億美元的資本流出中看出這一點。我們想說明和解釋庫存的變化以及推動庫存增長的因素。庫存增長的最大單一貢獻者是戰略原材料採購，作為管理某些材料不可預測的可用性的一部分。您還可以在這裡看到通貨膨脹對我們庫存平均價值的影響。

In addition to some increases that we made to support growth, would it be building inventory ahead of new product launches, increasing safety stocks or building stock in market, where we expect the growth to accelerate for existing products. Clearly, we recognize that the starting point at the end of 2021 was already too high and particularly in orthopaedics. This is why inventory is one of the key focus area in the 12-point plan, and we expect to reduce inventory buyback.

除了我們為支持增長而進行的一些增加外，是否會在新產品發布之前建立庫存，增加安全庫存或建立市場庫存，我們預計現有產品的增長將加速。顯然，我們認識到 2021 年底的起點已經過高，尤其是在骨科領域。這就是為什麼庫存是 12 點計劃中的重點關注領域之一，我們預計會減少庫存回購。

The effect of that is the leverage ratio finished at 2.2x adjusted EBITDA, which is similar to recent level and in line with our target of 2 to 2.5x. And now I'll move to the outlook for 2023. You will have seen this morning that we're guiding for underlying revenue growth of 5% to 6%.

其影響是槓桿率最終達到調整後 EBITDA 的 2.2 倍，與近期水平相似，符合我們 2 至 2.5 倍的目標。現在我將轉向 2023 年的展望。今天早上你會看到我們指導基礎收入增長 5% 到 6%。

Within that, we expect continuation of the above-market growth in Sports Medicine and Advanced Wound Management, and we also expect further improvement in orthopaedics. This will be driven by better commercial execution and growth from new products as we continue to implement the 12-point plan.

其中，我們預計運動醫學和高級傷口管理將繼續保持高於市場的增長，我們還預計骨科將進一步改善。隨著我們繼續實施 12 點計劃，這將受到更好的商業執行和新產品增長的推動。

There will be phasing effects through the year. We're seeing the renewed COVID waves in China impacting surgical volumes. And therefore, we also still have another quarter before we fully lap VBP during Q2. So that means that Q1 will be slower with acceleration as the year progresses and the China headwinds subside.

全年將產生階段性影響。我們看到中國新一輪的 COVID 浪潮正在影響手術量。因此，在第二季度完全超越 VBP 之前，我們還有一個季度。因此，這意味著隨著時間的推移和中國逆風消退，第一季度將隨著加速而放緩。

On trading margin, we expect the 2023 trading margin to be above 2022 level and at least at 17.5%. Clearly, there's a lot of moving parts behind the margin. And as you can see on the chart on the right, there are several components building that margin. We'll continue to see margin headwinds from the macro environment, which remains uncertain.

在交易保證金方面，我們預計 2023 年的交易保證金將高於 2022 年的水平，至少為 17.5%。顯然，利潤率背後有很多活動部件。正如您在右邊的圖表中看到的那樣，有幾個組成部分構成了這個利潤率。我們將繼續看到來自宏觀環境的利潤逆風，這仍然不確定。

However, we more than offset -- we more than expect, sorry, to offset those headwinds. That will come from a combination of positive operating leverage and productivity improvements under the 12-point plan, including specific cost actions that we're setting out today.

然而，我們不僅僅是抵消 - 對不起，我們比預期更能抵消這些不利因素。這將來自 12 點計劃下積極的運營槓桿和生產力改進的結合，包括我們今天提出的具體成本行動。

Looking at the detail on the chart on the right, you can see that transactional FX will be a headwind of around 100 basis points from the dollar strength in 2022. There's also continued raw material cost inflation, and some of that is a delayed impact as we work through inventory that's based on higher purchase prices. We partially offset this through pricing actions and product improvement in COGS and manufacturing.

查看右圖的詳細信息，您可以看到 2022 年交易性外匯將受到美元走強影響約 100 個基點的逆風。原材料成本持續上漲，其中一些是延遲影響，因為我們處理基於更高采購價格的庫存。我們通過在 COGS 和製造方面的定價行動和產品改進部分抵消了這一點。

Higher-than-usual staff costs from wage adjustments in the second half of '22 and the usual merit increase in '23 will largely be offset by commercial and G&A savings, and revenue leverage will provide the remaining offset. So taking all these variables into account, we expect trading margin expansion year-on-year. We've also updated today our midterm guidance, and I'll hand you back to Deepak to cover that.

22 年下半年工資調整和 23 年通常的績效增長導致的高於平常的員工成本將在很大程度上被商業和 G&A 節省所抵消，而收入槓桿將提供剩餘的抵消。因此，考慮到所有這些變量，我們預計交易利潤率將同比增長。我們今天還更新了我們的中期指南，我會把你交還給 Deepak 來解決這個問題。

Thank you, Anne-Francoise. So as you know, we issued the midterm guidance last about a little over a year ago. And since then, a lot has changed. The macro environment has been more challenging for everyone with higher inflation and longer disruption, as I said earlier, to our supply chains, and that continued all the way through 2022. We've also made progress.

謝謝你，安妮-弗朗索瓦絲。如您所知，我們大約在一年多前發布了中期指南。從那以後，發生了很多變化。正如我之前所說，宏觀環境對每個人來說都更具挑戰性，通貨膨脹率更高，供應鏈中斷時間更長，這種情況一直持續到 2022 年。我們也取得了進展。

We started the implementation of our 12-point plan that's fundamentally transformed how we operate as a company. Our new midterm goals reflect both the changes in the macro environment over the last year and also the actions we are taking to offset the pressures and drive higher top line growth.

我們開始實施我們的 12 點計劃，該計劃從根本上改變了我們公司的運營方式。我們新的中期目標既反映了去年宏觀環境的變化，也反映了我們為抵消壓力和推動更高的收入增長而採取的行動。

On revenue, we're now targeting underlying growth consistently at 5% or higher. That's above historic levels. And in a moment, I'll show you the building blocks of how we are making that change. We're also targeting trading margin in excess of 20% in 2025 and beyond. Clearly, the margin guidance implies a nonlinear path over the next 3 years. Thus, due to the higher inflation headwinds, as assumed in 2023 and productivity gains from operations coming more towards the end of the period, particularly around manufacturing, we do still expect to make year-on-year improvements throughout this period, and that's only the first step.

在收入方面，我們現在的基本增長目標始終保持在 5% 或更高。這高於歷史水平。稍後，我將向您展示我們如何做出這種改變的基石。我們還計劃在 2025 年及以後實現超過 20% 的交易保證金。顯然，保證金指導意味著未來 3 年的非線性路徑。因此，由於 2023 年假設的通脹逆風增加以及運營帶來的生產率收益更多地接近該期間的末期，特別是圍繞製造業，我們仍然預計在此期間將實現同比改善，而這只是第一步。

From beyond 2025, we'll be in a fundamentally changed position. We'll have a choice of how much we want to reinvest on more growth opportunities and how much we allow to flow into further margin expansion. We'll probably go into the detail of how we do that. I just want to anchor and remind you of our fundamental competitive position. I have no doubt that we have the right to win and all 3 franchises.

從 2025 年以後，我們將處於一個根本改變的位置。我們可以選擇將多少資金再投資於更多的增長機會，以及允許將多少資金用於進一步擴大利潤率。我們可能會詳細介紹如何做到這一點。我只是想提醒您我們的基本競爭地位。我毫不懷疑我們有權贏得所有 3 個特許經營權。

In Orthopaedics, that comes from a full product portfolio and technology. We have highly differentiated implants particularly in knees and also with OXINIUM, as Anne-Francoise mentioned.

在骨科，這來自完整的產品組合和技術。正如 Anne-Francoise 提到的，我們有高度差異化的植入物，特別是在膝蓋和 OXINIUM 方面。

We've got platform technologies, robotics with unique indications and assets on our CORI platform. In sports, we have a full offering with leading positions across joint repair, enabling technologies and biologics. There are also clear synergies between orthopaedics and ENT, for example, in the ASC channel.

我們在 CORI 平台上擁有平台技術、具有獨特適應症的機器人和資產。在運動領域，我們提供全面的產品，在關節修復、支持技術和生物製劑方面處於領先地位。骨科和耳鼻喉科之間也有明顯的協同作用，例如，在 ASC 渠道中。

And in Wound, which is the heritage of Smith & Nephew, we've got the broadest portfolio across all segments with biologics, devices, films and dressings. We've got a leading position and negative pressure. We also have strong clinical evidence for our portfolio that sets us apart from the value segment of wound.

在 Smith & Nephew 的遺產 Wound 中，我們擁有涵蓋所有領域的最廣泛的產品組合，包括生物製劑、設備、薄膜和敷料。我們有領先地位和負壓力。我們的產品組合也有強有力的臨床證據，使我們有別於傷口的價值部分。

Our 12-point plan that we introduced in July of 2022 is fundamentally changing the way we operate as a company to drive the higher growth and also to improve our productivity. It's central to how we'll be addressing our remaining challenges. We've been held back by supply chain constraints that resulted in product availability issues and by execution, and that's mainly in orthopaedics.

我們於 2022 年 7 月推出的 12 點計劃從根本上改變了我們作為一家公司的運營方式，以推動更高的增長並提高我們的生產力。這對我們如何應對剩餘挑戰至關重要。我們一直受到導致產品可用性問題的供應鏈限制和執行的阻礙，這主要是在骨科領域。

Some of that is, of course, related to external factors, like semiconductors, particularly impacted CORI. But a lot of it actually is in our hands, both on the growth side and our profitability.

當然，其中一些與外部因素有關，例如半導體，尤其是對 CORI 的影響。但實際上很多都掌握在我們手中，無論是在增長方面還是在我們的盈利能力方面。

On Slide 22, it's a slide that we're on summarizes the initiatives as we set out back in November. 7 of these levers are primarily growth enablers from strengthening our commercial foundations, particularly in orthopaedics, driving each franchise and accessing the cross-franchise opportunity that I mentioned in ASCs.

在幻燈片 22 上，我們正在使用的這張幻燈片總結了我們在 11 月開始時的舉措。其中 7 個槓桿主要是加強我們的商業基礎的增長推動力，特別是在骨科領域，推動每個特許經營權並獲得我在 ASC 中提到的跨特許經營機會。

The other 5 are around productivity across our manufacturing, procurement and value and cash processes. As we walk through the detail of our growth and margin bridges out to 2025, you'll see each of these initiatives contributing. So I'll start with revenue, where we're targeting consistent 5-plus percent underlying growth.

其他 5 個與我們的製造、採購以及價值和現金流程的生產力有關。當我們詳細介紹到 2025 年的增長和利潤橋樑時，您會看到這些舉措中的每一項都在做出貢獻。所以我將從收入開始，我們的目標是持續保持 5% 以上的基礎增長。

This slide puts that context -- that into context of our recent history. So 2020 and 2021 were dominated by COVID disruption. But if we look to the 4 years before that, our average growth rate was a little bit under 3%. Our midterm guidance, therefore, represents a move to consistently higher rate than Smith & Nephew has delivered in the past.

這張幻燈片將這種背景 - 置於我們近期歷史的背景中。因此，2020 年和 2021 年以 COVID 破壞為主。但如果回顧之前的 4 年，我們的平均增長率略低於 3%。因此，我們的中期指導代表了比 Smith & Nephew 過去提供的利率持續更高的舉措。

So I pointed 3 building blocks that will help us get there. First, we're fixing orthopaedics. As we rewire our commercial delivery, we'll more consistently realize the full potential of our technology than we really have been able to manage up to now. The second building block is continuing the strength of sports medicine and our wound management franchise.

所以我指出了 3 個可以幫助我們實現目標的構建基塊。首先，我們正在修理骨科。當我們重新連接我們的商業交付時，我們將比我們迄今為止真正能夠管理的更一致地實現我們技術的全部潛力。第二個基石是繼續加強運動醫學和我們的傷口管理專營權。

Sports has been high-performing for many years now. But the recent performance of Wound is a clear step-up from where we were in 2019 and prior. Just maintaining this outperformance from here, therefore, contributes to consistently higher growth rate than the past.

體育多年來一直表現出色。但 Wound 最近的表現與我們在 2019 年及之前的水平相比有了明顯的提升。因此，只要從現在開始保持這種優異表現，就有助於保持比過去更高的增長率。

And thirdly, there's the return on our renovation. The company took a strategic decision over the last several years to increase our spend in R&D. We're now seeing the return of that higher investment coming through in the form of a revitalized portfolio and a greater growth combination coming from new products. So I'll get into each of these in turn.

第三，我們的裝修有回報。公司在過去幾年中做出了一項戰略決策，以增加我們在研發方面的支出。我們現在看到更高投資的回報以振興的投資組合和新產品帶來的更大增長組合的形式出現。因此，我將依次介紹其中的每一個。

On Orthopaedics, the process of fixing the foundations is now well underway. We've said from the beginning that this would take 2 years to work through in full. But our KPIs are really starting to move in the right direction with early and ongoing improvements in product supply. 2 metrics are shown on the slide, but there's a bunch of others that we look at, of course, internally.

在骨科，修復基礎的過程正在順利進行。我們從一開始就說過，這需要 2 年的時間才能完全完成。但隨著產品供應的早期和持續改進，我們的 KPI 確實開始朝著正確的方向發展。幻燈片上顯示了 2 個指標，但我們當然會在內部查看許多其他指標。

The first is simply the value of overdue orders. We had already brought that down in Q3, and I made mention of that in our release. And there was even further reduction of more than 20% during Q4.

首先是過期訂單的價值。我們已經在第三季度降低了這一點，我在我們的發布中提到了這一點。第四季度甚至進一步減少了 20% 以上。

In total, Orthopaedics overdue orders are now sitting more than 35% below the peak in the first half of the year. The second metric we look at around availability is LIFR, which is line item fill rate, and that measures the percent of customer orders that are completely filled, line items in order that's completely filled. So it's an indicator of how well we're meeting demand.

總的來說，骨科逾期訂單現在比上半年的峰值低 35% 以上。我們關注可用性的第二個指標是 LIFR，它是行項目填充率，它衡量完全填充的客戶訂單的百分比，即完全填充的訂單中的行項目。因此，這是我們滿足需求的程度的指標。

Now these are bumpy data because we tend to look at this on a biweekly or monthly basis. So there are variations from month to month. And they are impacted by external factors. For example, we had an ice storm come through Memphis the last part of December, and that significantly impacted the numbers for that peak and beyond.

現在這些是顛簸的數據，因為我們傾向於每兩週或每月查看一次。所以每個月都有變化。他們受到外部因素的影響。例如，在 12 月的下半月，一場冰暴席捲了孟菲斯，這極大地影響了那個高峰期及以後的數字。

But it is important that we're taking a look at this at a high frequency. But what you can see it's non-set life of orthopaedics is on an improving path. It's not a target yet, which would target a set of what we consider to be in good industry practice. But we've made more than 75% progress towards the level from the trough that we saw in 2021. So within that, we further prioritized our strategic products, and these are in better condition again.

但重要的是，我們要高頻率地看待這個問題。但你可以看到骨科的非固定壽命正在改善。這還不是一個目標，它將針對一組我們認為符合良好行業慣例的內容。但我們已經從 2021 年的低谷水平取得了 75% 以上的進展。因此，我們進一步優先考慮我們的戰略產品，這些產品再次處於更好的狀態。

So U.S. Life for our JOURNEY II Knee, has made more than 80% progress from trough to target. And both our POLARSTEM and Hips and EVOS small trauma -- in trauma have reached their targets already. There's clearly more to do to make product availability more reliable, but the early KPIs are encouraging.

因此，我們的 JOURNEY II 膝蓋的 U.S. Life 從低谷到目標取得了 80% 以上的進展。我們的 POLARSTEM 和 Hips 以及 EVOS 小創傷——在創傷方面都已經達到了他們的目標。顯然，要使產品可用性更加可靠，還有更多工作要做，但早期的 KPI 令人鼓舞。

And as supply improvements continue, sales rep time will be freed up and customer confidence will continue to build. And we believe that we'll be in a better position to pursue new business. The continuing strength of sports and wound on the second building block and stepping up our growth rate. Sports has already been outperforming the market for many years, as I noted, and we expect to continue that.

隨著供應的持續改善，銷售代表的時間將得到釋放，客戶的信心將繼續增強。我們相信我們將能夠更好地開展新業務。體育的持續實力和傷口在第二個基石上，並加快了我們的增長率。正如我所指出的，體育多年來一直跑贏市場，我們希望繼續保持這種勢頭。

When I look at the reasons for the bad performance, they're sustainable and fundamental. There's commercial excellence built on deep understanding of our customers, established customer relationships and a steady stream of innovation across procedures. New segment development in biologics, where we're just getting started and, of course, successful integration of acquired assets.

當我審視業績不佳的原因時，它們是可持續的和根本的。卓越的商業成就建立在對客戶的深刻理解、建立的客戶關係和跨流程的源源不斷的創新之上。生物製劑的新細分市場開發，我們才剛剛起步，當然還有成功整合收購資產。

Looking forward, we're continuing to deliver a high cadence of new products across our major categories of knee and shoulder repair, including fixation technologies and biologics. And of course, the adjacencies in the orthoscopic Tower.

展望未來，我們將繼續在膝關節和肩關節修復的主要類別中提供高節奏的新產品，包括固定技術和生物製劑。當然，還有矯形塔中的鄰接區域。

In short, the innovation pipeline continues to be productive and broad feeding into a commercial channel that executes at a high level. That all gives us confidence that the franchise can keep delivering more of the same financially. Advanced Wound Management's outperformance is more recent. It was in 2021 that this franchise moved to above market performance and higher growth than in previous years. That means to just maintaining performance from here is going to be additive to the group growth rate compared to recent history. And again, there are good reasons to expect that the franchise can sustain and even build on the recent growth rate.

簡而言之，創新渠道繼續富有成效，並廣泛進入高水平執行的商業渠道。這一切都讓我們相信特許經營可以繼續提供更多相同的財務。 Advanced Wound Management 的優異表現是最近才出現的。正是在 2021 年，該特許經營權的表現高於市場表現，增長率高於往年。這意味著與最近的歷史相比，僅從這裡保持性能將增加集團增長率。再一次，有充分的理由期望特許經營權能夠維持甚至建立在最近的增長率之上。

Firstly, the step-up in performance has been based on sustainable and fundamental drivers. Part of that is commercial execution. The organization is focused on our differentiated strengths such as the unique portfolio breadth among our larger peers and evidence-based selling that differentiates us from the smaller value players. And there's also an attractive portfolio mix. We have a leading position in the high-growth negative pressure wound therapy segment. We've also driven bioactive growth structurally higher by scaling up and successfully integrating our skin substitutes acquisition from 2019.

首先，績效的提升是基於可持續和基本的驅動因素。其中一部分是商業執行。該組織專注於我們的差異化優勢，例如我們較大的同行中獨特的投資組合廣度和基於證據的銷售，這使我們有別於較小的價值參與者。還有一個有吸引力的投資組合。我們在高生長負壓傷口治療領域處於領先地位。我們還通過擴大規模並成功整合我們從 2019 年開始收購的皮膚替代品，在結構上推動了生物活性增長。

And there are still opportunities for further growth, again, particularly in negative pressure. In the traditional segment, we can win more share. Today, we have less than 10% share of the $1.7 billion market with a larger competitor selling much of it through single-source contracts. So we've already been converting accounts as contracts expire and RENASYS Edge creates a further opportunity for us to address the broader market.

而且仍然有進一步增長的機會，尤其是在負壓下。在傳統領域，我們可以贏得更多份額。今天，我們在價值 17 億美元的市場中佔有不到 10% 的份額，而更大的競爭對手通過單一來源合同銷售其中的大部分。因此，隨著合同到期，我們已經在轉換賬戶，而 RENASYS Edge 為我們創造了一個應對更廣闊市場的機會。

The single-use opportunity is more about market expansion. We're ideally placed to access that with our PICO's #1 position. The segment is expected to keep growing in the teens in the next 5 years, and we believe a multiple of today's size is possible just through increased use in surgical incisions.

一次性機會更多的是市場擴張。我們的 PICO 排名第一，因此處於理想的位置。預計該細分市場在未來 5 年內將繼續增長，我們相信，只要增加在手術切口中的使用，就有可能將今天的規模擴大幾倍。

The third building block of higher growth is innovation. Put simply, we've allocated more capital to R&D than we have in the past, which should drive more innovation, and we're now seeing the returns of that coming through. That step-up in investment has been significant.

更高增長的第三個基石是創新。簡而言之，我們為研發分配了比過去更多的資金，這應該會推動更多的創新，而我們現在正在看到其回報。投資的增加意義重大。

Over the last 3 years, our R&D spend has been 25% higher relative to sales than it was in 2017. That included maintaining our commitment both through COVID and as our sales later recover. To give you a sense of how central to our model innovation is, more than 60% of revenue growth in 2022 came from products that you launched in the 5 years prior. That's also create clear step-up from less than 40% of growth in 2021 coming from new products, and we expect this proportion to remain at least at 50% in 2023.

在過去的 3 年裡，我們的研發支出相對於銷售額比 2017 年高出 25%。這包括通過 COVID 和我們的銷售額後來恢復來維持我們的承諾。為了讓您了解我們的模式創新有多重要，2022 年超過 60% 的收入增長來自您在 5 年前推出的產品。這也明顯提高了 2021 年來自新產品的不到 40% 的增長，我們預計這一比例到 2023 年將至少保持在 50%。

You can also see the change in the absolute number of launches. We expect 25 product launches in 2023, which is a clear step up from an average of about 18 in the period 2017 to 2022. It isn't just about numbers. We're bringing key strategic products to the market across all of our franchises.

您還可以看到啟動的絕對數量的變化。我們預計 2023 年將推出 25 款產品，與 2017 年至 2022 年期間的平均約 18 款相比有了明顯的提升。這不僅僅是數字的問題。我們正在將我們所有特許經營權的關鍵戰略產品推向市場。

So for example, in 2021 and 2022, we entered the cementless category with LEGION CONCELOC. And with more cementless launches still to come, we added a range of applications also to CORI, including a unique knee revision indication. We're the only robotic platform to carry that and launched our next-generation meniscal repair device FAST-FIX FLEX. I have to say that with (inaudible). And that will continue in 2023.

因此，例如，在 2021 年和 2022 年，我們與 LEGION CONCELOC 一起進入了非水泥類別。隨著更多非骨水泥產品的推出，我們還為 CORI 添加了一系列應用，包括獨特的膝關節翻修適應症。我們是唯一攜帶它的機器人平台，並推出了我們的下一代半月板修復設備 FAST-FIX FLEX。我不得不說（聽不清）。這將在 2023 年繼續。

So we'll further build our CORI's functionality, including the unique need tensioner for soft tissue balancing. So we'll launch the next generation of RENASYS, as I just mentioned, and AETOS which will be our entry into next-generation shoulder.

因此，我們將進一步構建 CORI 的功能，包括用於軟組織平衡的獨特需求張緊器。所以我們會推出下一代的RENASYS，正如我剛才提到的，以及AETOS，這將是我們進入下一代肩膀的入口。

So I'll now move on to profitability. To think about how we reach our target of a trading margin in excess of 20% in 2025, it's useful to look at what that factors have taken us to our current level. The pressures are in 3 groups.

所以我現在轉向盈利能力。要考慮我們如何在 2025 年實現交易保證金超過 20% 的目標，看看是什麼因素使我們達到目前的水平是很有用的。壓力分為 3 組。

First, there have been onetime rebasing efforts, which are transactional exchange, foreign exchange and VBP Clearly, we don't know how foreign exchange will develop from here, but VBP is a permanent market change. Secondly, there's the balance of cost inflation, pricing and leverage. For most of the last 3 years, we've had a continuation of the past price deflation, higher cost inflation and underlying growth that hasn't been high enough to offset those factors. During COVID, the decision was taken to maintain the size of the organization, so the cost base was not adjusted at that time. And we retain excess manufacturing capacity.

首先，曾經有過一次rebase的努力，就是交易性的外匯、外彙和VBP 顯然，我們不知道外匯會從這裡發展到什麼程度，但VBP是一個永久的市場變化。其次，成本通脹、定價和槓桿之間存在平衡。在過去 3 年的大部分時間裡，過去的價格通縮、更高的成本通脹和潛在增長都沒有高到足以抵消這些因素。在 COVID 期間，決定保持組織規模，因此當時沒有調整成本基礎。我們保留了過剩的製造能力。

And thirdly, there's been dilution from our growth investments, both from a rising R&D spend, as I talked about just now, and initial dilution from M&A since 2020. And these are investments that we decided to maintain again through COVID as part of our strategic focus on growth.

第三，我們的增長投資被稀釋了，既有我剛才談到的研發支出的增加，也有自 2020 年以來併購的初步稀釋。這些投資是我們決定通過 COVID 再次維持的投資，作為我們戰略的一部分專注於增長。

When we look by franchise, it's really orthopaedics that's caused most of the group margin decline. Repeating the analysis shows that the same factors have been amplified here in orthopaedics. Of the onetime factors, Orthopaedics is more affected by dollar strength given the dominance of Memphis manufacturing and VBP, of course, is specific to Orthopaedics.

當我們按特許經營權看時，真正導致大部分集團利潤率下降的是骨科。重複分析表明，同樣的因素在骨科領域得到了放大。在一次性因素中，骨科受美元走強的影響更大，因為孟菲斯製造業和 VBP 的主導地位當然是骨科特有的。

On inflation and leverage, Orthopaedics revenue has been slower to recover since COVID. Has met less of a growth offset for the recent cost inflation and the price deflation that was a feature of the market up to 2022. That has again left us with excess costs. Putting all that together, there are a few important observations.

在通貨膨脹和槓桿方面，骨科收入自 COVID 以來恢復緩慢。對最近的成本通脹和 2022 年之前的市場特徵價格通縮的增長抵消較少。這再次給我們留下了超額成本。將所有這些放在一起，有一些重要的觀察結果。

First, whether you look at the group margin for orthopaedics, only minority of the pressure over the last 3 years has come from rebasing efforts. Secondly, most of the rest either reflects slower revenue growth in the past or is due to our decisions to invest for higher growth in the future.

首先，無論你看骨科的集團利潤率，在過去 3 年中只有少數壓力來自重新定位的努力。其次，其餘大部分要么反映了過去收入增長放緩，要么是由於我們決定投資於未來更高的增長。

With the higher growth that we're now positioned to deliver, we'll be better placed to drive our positive operating leverage that Anne-Francoise has mentioned.

隨著我們現在能夠實現的更高增長，我們將能夠更好地推動 Anne-Francoise 提到的積極運營槓桿。

And thirdly, many of these headwinds should abate going forward or fall away entirely, particularly after 2023. VBP will fully annualize during the first half of this year, and inflation is expected to moderate after this year, and we don't intend to our R&D spend to further rebase upwards. So that leads us to the bridge to the 2025 margin target.

第三，這些逆風中的許多應該會減弱或完全消失，尤其是在 2023 年之後。VBP 將在今年上半年完全年化，預計今年之後通脹將放緩，我們不打算我們的研發支出將進一步向上調整。因此，這使我們走向了 2025 年保證金目標的橋樑。

There'll still be a further transactional FX headwind in 2023. But as I said, VBP stops being an incremental headwind as we move through this year. We do not assume that inflation goes away in 2023. As I set out in our 2020 -- in our guidance, it will be a headwind again this year. But after that, we expect it to moderate. We're going to offset that pressure to productivity and cost actions that includes the network optimization initiative that we already announced in the 12-point plan and also a detailed set of cost actions mainly focused on OpEx.

到 2023 年，交易外匯仍將面臨進一步的逆風。但正如我所說，隨著今年的推進，VBP 不再是一個漸進的逆風。我們不假設通貨膨脹會在 2023 年消失。正如我在我們的 2020 年中所闡述的那樣——在我們的指導中，今年將再次成為逆風。但在那之後，我們預計它會緩和。我們將抵消對生產力和成本行動的壓力，其中包括我們已經在 12 點計劃中宣布的網絡優化計劃，以及一系列主要關注 OpEx 的詳細成本行動。

Together, we will deliver over $200 million in annual savings by 2025. The final lever is growth. In the past, you've seen our growth leverage often consumed by price deflation and cost inflation. However, our 12-point plan initiative to optimize pricing put together with cost savings offsetting the cost inflation will mean that you'll see structurally higher growth falling through in margin leverage out to 2025. And from '25 onwards, we'll be operating as a fundamentally changed company, and this has been the goal of our strategy and investments in recent years.

到 2025 年，我們將一起每年節省超過 2 億美元。最後一個槓桿是增長。過去，您已經看到我們的增長槓桿經常被價格通縮和成本膨脹所消耗。然而，我們優化定價的 12 點計劃舉措加上成本節約抵消了成本通脹，這意味著到 2025 年，您將看到結構性更高的利潤率增長下降。從 25 年開始，我們將運營作為一家發生根本性變化的公司，這一直是我們近年來戰略和投資的目標。

And we'll be able to now then rather choose how much we reinvest in more growth and how much we allow to drop through to further margin expansion. Clearly, the productivity and cost improvements are an important component of our plans. So I'll share a little more detail about what to expect.

我們現在可以選擇再投資多少以實現更多增長，以及我們允許放棄多少以進一步擴大利潤率。顯然，生產力和成本改進是我們計劃的重要組成部分。因此，我將分享更多有關預期內容的詳細信息。

We've identified a broad set of actions with cost levers reaching across manufacturing, sales and marketing and G&A. The plan is to deliver at pace with the full benefit coming in 3 years. In constant manufacturing, the rollout of Lean will bring simple processes, more standardization and reduced scrap. There are also still opportunities from optimizing our network where we have overcapacity, particularly in orthopaedics and from sourcing materials and components. All of this comes under the productivity initiatives of the 12-point plan.

我們已經確定了一系列廣泛的行動，其成本槓桿涉及製造、銷售和營銷以及 G&A。該計劃是在 3 年內實現全部收益的同時交付。在不斷的製造中，精益的推出將帶來簡單的流程、更多的標準化和減少的廢品。優化我們產能過剩的網絡仍然有機會，特別是在骨科和採購材料和組件方面。所有這些都屬於 12 點計劃的生產力舉措。

Sales and marketing and the market's levers will be a second big block. As I mentioned, the level of revenue growth in the last 3 years has left us with excess costs. And each commercial team is committed to further new savings to bring our cost base back into balance. And we look at country mix in each franchise, including exiting business lines when they're unattractive in a particular market. Trauma in China that we've called out is one of those examples, and there are others in Europe as well that we've already acted on in 2022. And we've identified further opportunities over the next couple of years.

銷售和營銷以及市場槓桿將是第二大障礙。正如我所提到的，過去 3 年的收入增長水平給我們留下了超額成本。每個商業團隊都致力於進一步節省成本，使我們的成本基礎恢復平衡。我們會查看每個特許經營權的國家/地區組合，包括在特定市場上沒有吸引力時退出業務線。我們提到的中國創傷就是其中一個例子，歐洲還有其他我們已經在 2022 年採取行動的例子。我們已經在未來幾年確定了更多的機會。

Finally, there's corporate and G&A Again, there are potential savings from procurement, including in distribution. And as with the commercial costs, we've also committed to savings in our corporate and administrative costs. So in total, these actions will generate over $200 million of annual cost savings by 2025.

最後，還有企業和 G&A 再次，採購有潛在的節省，包括分銷。與商業成本一樣，我們也致力於節省公司和管理成本。因此，到 2025 年，這些行動總共將每年節省超過 2 億美元的成本。

Some elements will take time, particularly as you can imagine, in manufacturing. So while savings will already benefit us in 2023, it will also be somewhat back-end loaded with around half of the expected benefits coming in the final year.

有些元素需要時間，尤其是在製造過程中。因此，雖然儲蓄已經使我們在 2023 年受益，但它也會在某種程度上在最後一年帶來大約一半的預期收益。

So with that, I'm pleased to bring you these updated targets this morning. They represent a realistic outlook and a commitment to meaningfully improve Smith & Nephew's financial performance. The 12-point plan is starting to deliver, transforming the way we operate and bringing greater rigor and improved execution.

因此，今天早上我很高興為您帶來這些更新的目標。它們代表了現實的前景和對顯著改善 Smith & Nephew 財務業績的承諾。 12 點計劃開始付諸實施，改變了我們的運作方式，帶來了更大的嚴謹性和改進的執行力。

As we continue to work through the 2-year life of the plan, we'll see the operational and financial benefits continue to accumulate in growth, profitability and cash generation. The benefit of a multiyear investment innovation is coming through, and there's much more detail behind that we'd like to share. I'm sure some of you will be at AAOS, and you're welcome to join our booth. And tour to see some of our recent launches and our near-term pipeline in Orthopaedics.

隨著我們繼續完成該計劃的 2 年期，我們將看到運營和財務收益在增長、盈利能力和現金生成方面繼續積累。多年投資創新的好處正在顯現，我們想分享更多的細節。我相信你們中的一些人會在 AAOS，歡迎您加入我們的展位。並參觀我們最近推出的一些產品以及我們在骨科領域的近期產品線。

We'll also be holding a capital markets event later in the year, where we'll focus much more on the developing growth opportunities across our franchises. We've had great technology at Smith & Nephew for a long time. But this wave of innovation can take us a whole different level. We'll be in touch shortly a lot of date for our Capital Markets Day and we'd be delighted if you can join us. Now we can move to your questions.

我們還將在今年晚些時候舉辦一次資本市場活動，屆時我們將更加關注我們特許經營權的發展增長機會。長期以來，我們在 Smith & Nephew 擁有出色的技術。但這一波創新浪潮可以將我們帶到一個完全不同的層次。我們很快就會聯繫我們的資本市場日，如果你能加入我們，我們會很高興。現在我們可以開始回答您的問題了。

Jack-Reynolds Clark from RBC. Really useful margin guidance bridge for the midterm guidance. Just wondering if you could give us a bit more information on the timing of those components. And then thinking about 2023 margin, how do you see phasing progressing through the year?

來自 RBC 的 Jack-Reynolds Clark。對中期指導來說真正有用的邊際指導橋樑。只是想知道您是否可以向我們提供有關這些組件的時間安排的更多信息。然後考慮 2023 年的利潤率，您如何看待今年的分階段進展？

Yes. So I can open I'll turn it over to Anne-Francoise. As I mentioned, we expect to start to see benefits even in 2023. Some of the actions around G&A and sales and marketing you should expect to see the benefit starting in 2023. Manufacturing, we're actually already underway in terms of optimizing our network and starting to balance our capacity with demand.

是的。這樣我就可以打開了，我會把它交給 Anne-Francoise。正如我所提到的，我們預計甚至會在 2023 年開始看到收益。您應該期望從 2023 年開始看到圍繞 G&A 以及銷售和營銷的一些行動的收益。製造業，我們實際上已經在優化我們的網絡方面進行並開始平衡我們的產能與需求。

You'll see some of it in 2023. But as I mentioned, the full impact of our network optimization will happen more in the outer years of this plan. The growth leverage part of margin you should start to see in 2023 as we progress through the year. You'll see growth to the levels that we've guided to, and that will start to fall through into March and then we'll continue to accumulate over the life of the plan. So that's the mix.

你會在 2023 年看到其中的一些。但正如我所提到的，我們網絡優化的全面影響將更多地發生在該計劃的外部年份。隨著我們在這一年的進展，您應該在 2023 年開始看到利潤率的增長槓桿部分。你會看到增長達到我們所指導的水平，這將開始下降到 3 月，然後我們將在計劃的整個生命週期內繼續積累。這就是組合。

The cost actions around G&A, the marketing starting to hit in '23 and beyond operating leverage also in '23 start to accumulate impact of manufacturing network more back-end loaded. Do you want to cover that, Anne-Francoise?

圍繞 G&A 的成本行動，營銷在 23 年開始受到影響，並且在 23 年也開始超越運營槓桿，開始積累更多後端負載的製造網絡的影響。安妮-弗朗索瓦絲，你想報導嗎？

No, we can move to the '23 question, Jack, which clearly, you should expect a similar pattern to what we've seen historically with the second slight, a stronger second half, in part due to the fact that we were lapping VBP in the first half as well. And as we work through the savings and the component of the 12-point plan the benefits start delivering more as well towards the back end of the year. So that's what you should expect.

不，我們可以轉到 23 年的問題，傑克，很明顯，你應該期待與我們在歷史上看到的第二次輕擊相似的模式，下半場更強，部分原因是我們在繞過 VBP上半年也是如此。隨著我們努力完成節省和 12 點計劃的組成部分，收益也開始在年底前提供更多。所以這就是你應該期待的。

Hassan Al-Wakeel, Barclays. I have 2, please. So firstly, if I can ask on midterm targets, particularly the rationale for the 5% plus organic growth ambition and your increased confidence here. I appreciate you had a stronger 2022 and particularly at the end of the year. But as you show in your chart, this is meaningfully higher than what you've achieved historically. So how do you break up the 5% by segment in geography in terms of the market growth that you see and the expectation for Smith & Nephew and your growth and share gains, or at least stabilization of share, maybe in orthopaedics?

Hassan Al-Wakeel，巴克萊銀行。我有 2 個。所以首先，如果我能問一下中期目標，特別是 5% 以上的有機增長雄心的理由和你在這裡增強的信心。我感謝您在 2022 年表現更強勁，尤其是在年底。但正如您在圖表中顯示的那樣，這比您過去取得的成就要高得多。那麼，根據您所看到的市場增長、對 Smith & Nephew 的預期以及您的增長和份額收益，或者至少穩定份額（可能在骨科領域），您如何按地域劃分 5%？

And then secondly, thank you for the helpful data on the launch intensity. Do you have this data over a shorter time period, maybe 3 years instead of the 5? Or put another way by business division, that would be really helpful. And is that percentage lower in Orthopaedics versus some of the other businesses? And do you think you need to accelerate the cadence of launches in Orthopaedics?

其次，感謝您提供有關發射強度的有用數據。您是否擁有更短時間段內的這些數據，也許是 3 年而不是 5 年？或者按業務部門換句話說，那將非常有幫助。與其他一些業務相比，骨科的百分比是否較低？你認為你需要加快骨科的發布節奏嗎？

And then on the 25 new products that you expect this year, I'd love a bit more color in terms of the vision, whether you think it's iterative or are there any step changes there?

然後在今年你期待的 25 款新產品上，我希望在願景方面多一點色彩，你認為它是迭代的還是有任何階躍變化的？

Yes, sure. So let me take those in turn. In terms of drivers of growth, what gives us the confidence in terms of growth. We remarked that 2022, particularly in Q4, all franchises contributed to the growth, and we expect that also going forward.

是的，當然。因此，讓我依次介紹這些。在增長動力方面，是什麼給了我們增長的信心。我們指出，到 2022 年，尤其是在第四季度，所有特許經營權都為增長做出了貢獻，我們預計這也會繼續下去。

We talked about the recent outperformance in wound, long-term outperformance in sports will continue to undergird our growth into the future. And we're well positioned there in terms of execution, in terms of our products we already have in our portfolio and the pipeline that we have behind that, which has not contributed to growth in the recent past. That's the change that we're expecting between the recent past and what we navigate to the future. And there, we have never had a lineup of factors that we have today.

我們談到了最近在傷口方面的出色表現，體育方面的長期出色表現將繼續鞏固我們未來的增長。我們在執行方面處於有利地位，就我們已經在我們的產品組合中擁有的產品以及我們擁有的產品線而言，這在最近的過去並沒有為增長做出貢獻。這就是我們在最近的過去和我們走向未來之間所期待的變化。在那裡，我們從來沒有像今天這樣的一系列因素。

First, CORI. We are the only true second-gen robotic platform in orthopaedics. So we're at a kind of an important moment in time in orthopaedics, well, the utilization of robotics or the interest in robotics is just increased with all players kind of having a robotic offering. So it's in that context that we're launching CORI. And we feel very, very good about how we're positioned relative to competing offerings.

首先，科里。我們是骨科領域唯一真正的第二代機器人平台。因此，我們正處於骨科領域的一個重要時刻，隨著所有參與者都提供機器人產品，機器人技術的使用或對機器人技術的興趣正在增加。因此，正是在這種情況下，我們推出了 CORI。我們對我們相對於競爭產品的定位感到非常非常好。

As I mentioned, there is a set of features and benefits that are already on CORI that are already differentiated relative to the competition. I talked about revision. We're the only robotic platform to have revision indication. We're the only robotic platform to offer soft issue balancing for the knee, which is an important consideration. And then there's a lineup of further benefits beyond that. So we believe quarry will be a growth driver. It hasn't been as big a driver because we've been supply constrained.

正如我所提到的，CORI 上已經有一組功能和優勢，這些功能和優勢已經在競爭中脫穎而出。我談到了修訂。我們是唯一具有修訂指示的機器人平台。我們是唯一一個為膝蓋提供軟問題平衡的機器人平台，這是一個重要的考慮因素。除此之外，還有一系列其他好處。因此，我們相信採石場將成為增長動力。它並沒有那麼大的驅動力，因為我們一直受到供應限制。

And here, it's less of the logistics issues that are called that I've flagged previously around Orthopaedics impacting product availability. Here is truly broader supply chain impacts such as semiconductor availability that's impacting our ability to place as many CORI systems. But as those ameliorate, as we see that ameliorate in '23 and beyond, we expect CORI to be a driver.

在這裡，我之前提到的影響產品可用性的骨科問題不再是所謂的物流問題。這是真正更廣泛的供應鏈影響，例如影響我們放置盡可能多的 CORI 系統的能力的半導體可用性。但隨著那些改善，正如我們在 23 年及以後看到的改善，我們希望 CORI 成為一個驅動力。

And then in EVOS, we've called for EVOS. Anne-Francoise mentioned that we now have with EVOS Small a full offering of EVOs to be able to go into RFPs and to contract to really start to compete effectively in the trauma market. It will be a growth driver for us. And of course, you've got a full portfolio in knee, where we have the only truly kinematic knee on the market. We're a highly differentiated material in OXINIUM that we've had for some period of time. But the combination of these factors is what gives me confidence that orthopaedics will continue to add to growth in our hands, right?

然後在 EVOS 中，我們呼籲使用 EVOS。 Anne-Francoise 提到我們現在與 EVOS Small 一起提供完整的 EVO 產品，以便能夠進入 RFP 並簽訂合同，真正開始在創傷市場上有效競爭。它將成為我們的增長動力。當然，您擁有完整的膝關節產品組合，我們擁有市場上唯一真正的運動膝關節。我們在 OXINIUM 中是一種高度差異化的材料，我們已經使用了一段時間。但這些因素的結合讓我相信骨科將繼續增加我們手中的增長，對吧？

So that's the first part of where the growth is going to come from dissected by segments. The second in terms of launch intensity. There's different ways of measuring R&D Vitality, as you know. We've chosen a 5-year timeframe. You could look at 3. Will the numbers change? Of course, we say 60% of our growth comes from products launched in the last 5 years. If you narrow it down to 3, it will be a different proportion.

所以這是增長將來自細分市場的第一部分。第二是發射強度。如您所知，有多種衡量研發活力的方法。我們選擇了 5 年的時間框架。你可以看看 3. 數字會改變嗎？當然，我們說我們 60% 的增長來自過去 5 年推出的產品。如果縮小到 3 個，比例就會不同。

But the point we're trying to illustrate is that innovation remains a key driver of growth in our business. So in terms of what do the numbers say just to highlight again what I said in my remarks, over the period 2017 to 2022, on average, we launched 18 products.

但我們試圖說明的一點是，創新仍然是我們業務增長的關鍵驅動力。因此，就數字而言，為了再次強調我在發言中所說的話，在 2017 年至 2022 年期間，我們平均推出了 18 種產品。

Now again, the number of products is one thing. It's about the revenue that each one contributes. And of course, you can parse that all different ways. But 18 was roughly the number of new products we launched from that time. We expect in '23 to launch 25. We have a pretty good view as to what's going to happen in 2024. Suffice it to say, we expect to maintain that intensity into the future.

再一次，產品的數量是一回事。這是關於每個人貢獻的收入。當然，您可以用所有不同的方式解析它。但 18 大致是我們從那時起推出的新產品的數量。我們希望在 23 年推出 25 年。我們對 2024 年會發生什麼有很好的看法。可以這麼說，我們希望在未來保持這種強度。

So that intensity of launches and growth coming from new products, whether you define it as 5 years or 3 years, we expect innovation to drive growth. So the third piece of your question, Hassan, around kind of disaggregating further within each of the franchises. I think I got into it in some detail.

因此，無論您將其定義為 5 年還是 3 年，新產品的推出和增長強度，我們都希望創新能夠推動增長。所以你的第三個問題，哈桑，圍繞著在每個特許經營權中進一步分解。我想我已經詳細了解了。

But what's important, again, to go back to orthopaedics is we've had some recent innovations come into our back, right, where we haven't seen the full impact of that yet commercially. So some of the indications that I mentioned on CORI, relatively new. Cementless offering. It's first of the other launches to come. It's about a year and some change in terms of it being into our bag. There's, of course, more to come in that regard.

但重要的是，再次回到骨科，我們已經有了一些最近的創新，對吧，我們還沒有看到它在商業上的全部影響。所以我在 CORI 上提到的一些跡象，相對較新。無水泥產品。這是其他即將推出的產品中的第一個。大約一年的時間，在將它放入我們的包中方面發生了一些變化。當然，在這方面還有更多的事情要做。

So whether you look at implant technology or you look at what's coming down the pipe in terms of robotics and robotics enablement in Orthopaedics, we've got a lot coming down the pike. You asked for how you -- how that breaks up by year and by segment. I would refer you to Capital Markets Day that's coming later in the year, where we'll detail out what that looks like.

因此，無論您是關注植入技術，還是關注骨科機器人技術和機器人技術支持方面正在發生的事情，我們都有很多進展。你問你如何 - 這是如何按年份和細分市場分解的。我建議您參考今年晚些時候即將到來的資本市場日，屆時我們將詳細說明它的樣子。

If you go to AAOS, you'll get a pretty good sense as to at least what the orthopaedics part of that pipeline looks over the near future because of the booth kind of setting your (inaudible) able to talk about in near-term pipeline. So as a newcomer coming into the space, as I took -- take a look at where we've been and really the sheer number of new factors coming in, I get excited as a new person coming in because we've never before as a company, had that portfolio, particularly in ortho. And of course, we've been well positioned in the other segments. So hopefully, that addresses your questions.

如果你去 AAOS，你至少會很好地了解該管道的骨科部分在不久的將來會是什麼樣子，因為展位設置了你的（聽不清）能夠在近期管道中談論.因此，作為一個進入這個領域的新人，正如我所看到的——看看我們去過的地方，以及真正進入的新因素的數量，作為一個新人進入，我感到很興奮，因為我們以前從未像現在這樣一家公司擁有該投資組合，尤其是在 ortho。當然，我們在其他領域也處於有利地位。希望這能解決您的問題。

And if I may just add in terms of the R&D as well allocation, all franchises have the pipeline coming through. So there's no disproportionate element of investment behind one of the other. There's a program behind all franchisees to drive the price.

如果我可以在研發和分配方面添加，所有特許經營權都有管道通過。因此，其中一個背後沒有不成比例的投資因素。所有加盟商背後都有一個推動價格的計劃。

Kyle Rose from Canaccord. I wanted to build on Hassan's question about the medium-term confidence within Orthopaedics. If I look historically, you have had product gaps, particularly when we think about some areas of robotics and then on the cementless knee. When you think about the sustainability of the turnaround and growth of the orthopaedics, how much of that is just a pricing component in getting a better pricing aspect versus taking true mix from a market share perspective?

來自 Canaccord 的 Kyle Rose。我想建立在哈桑關於骨科中期信心的問題之上。如果我回顧歷史，你會發現產品存在差距，特別是當我們考慮機器人技術的某些領域，然後是無骨水泥膝蓋時。當您考慮骨科的轉變和增長的可持續性時，其中有多少只是獲得更好定價方面的定價成分，而不是從市場份額的角度進行真正的組合？

And then secondarily, in the Advanced Wound Devices side of the business, for several years now, you've called out robust growth within PICO. It would be helpful to frame out the size of that business relative to RENASYS. Then also, I think it was maybe back in 2019, there was some bullishness just around contract wins in the United States with respect to RENASYS. You're obviously continue to see positivity there, at least in the commentary you're talking about today. So how should we think about the U.S. negative pressure wound business moving forward?

其次，在業務的高級傷口設備方面，幾年來，您一直在呼籲 PICO 實現強勁增長。確定該業務相對於 RENASYS 的規模會很有幫助。然後，我認為可能早在 2019 年，就 RENASYS 在美國贏得合同出現了一些樂觀情緒。你顯然會繼續看到積極的一面，至少在你今天談論的評論中是這樣。那麼我們應該如何看待美國的負壓傷口業務向前發展呢？

Thanks for the question, Kyle. So I'll take those or at least start with those. The first one around Orthopaedics. There's a role for price, right? Pricing is one of the elements of the 12.5%, particularly strategic pricing, where we haven't been as disciplined around price as a company strategic pricing as we could have been. So there is an aspect to that, that we're working on. But that alone isn't going to reset our fortunes in orthopaedics.

謝謝你的問題，凱爾。所以我會接受那些或者至少從那些開始。第一個圍繞骨科。價格有一定的作用，對吧？定價是 12.5% 的要素之一，尤其是戰略定價，我們在價格方面沒有像公司戰略定價那樣嚴格。所以有一個方面，我們正在努力。但光靠這一點並不能改變我們在骨科領域的命運。

A very important component of that is mix that's going to drive share recapture or share growth in orthopaedics. So it's an important aspect of how we get back to growth. As you noted, historically, we've had gaps in our portfolio. We didn't have a robotic system. We didn't have a cementless offering, and the list can go on and on. And while no company has got it all and we don't have a perfect lineup. We have more in our bag than we've ever had before.

其中一個非常重要的組成部分是將推動骨科市場份額重新奪回或份額增長的組合。因此，這是我們如何恢復增長的一個重要方面。正如您所指出的，從歷史上看，我們的投資組合存在差距。我們沒有機器人系統。我們沒有非水泥產品，而且這個清單可以繼續下去。雖然沒有一家公司擁有這一切，而且我們也沒有完美的陣容。我們的包裡有比以往任何時候都多的東西。

We have more in our hands to drive growth than we ever had before. And that's a change in terms of our position today relative to the recent past in Orthopaedics. But we have to fix our execution, which really has held us back, which is why the first bucket under the 12-point plan is Fix Orthopaedics, and that's a deliberate choice for us, right?

我們擁有比以往任何時候都更多的力量來推動增長。就我們今天在骨科領域的地位而言，這是一個變化。但是我們必須修復我們的執行，這確實阻礙了我們，這就是為什麼 12 點計劃下的第一個桶是 Fix Orthopaedics，這對我們來說是經過深思熟慮的選擇，對吧？

Five of the initiatives under the 12-point plan are geared towards in one way or another fixing orthopaedics. And there's multiple components to that. There's a logistics component where we've gotten out of step that has impacted our ability to supply the market to have product available to customers when they need that. We're well on a journey. LIFR is one of the measures that I called out, but there's a whole bunch of other measures that we look at to make sure that we are improving in that regard, right?

12 點計劃下的五項舉措以某種方式針對固定骨科。這有多個組成部分。有一個物流組件，我們已經失去了步調，這影響了我們供應市場的能力，以便在客戶需要時向他們提供產品。我們一路順風。 LIFR 是我提出的措施之一，但我們正在研究一大堆其他措施，以確保我們在這方面有所改進，對吧？

So there's a lot underneath that to get right. The second piece is on the factory side, on the supply side, right, where we've often judged ourselves by schedule attainment but we're now going to layer on mix attainment as well so that we're actually producing to demand. A, we have a robust demand planning process that's planned down to the right level, and we've got a supply response on us in a factory that's producing to the right level of demand, right? So there's things on the operations side. There's things on the logistics side, as I mentioned.

因此，在這之下有很多事情要做對。第二部分是在工廠方面，在供應方面，對，我們經常通過進度實現來判斷自己，但我們現在也將對混合實現進行分層，以便我們實際上是在按需生產。答，我們有一個穩健的需求計劃流程，計劃到正確的水平，並且我們在一家生產到正確需求水平的工廠中得到了供應響應，對嗎？所以在運營方面有一些事情。正如我提到的，物流方面有些事情。

And then there's a third piece around commercial delivery. Historically, partly because we've had these gaps, we've tended to reward retention versus growth, the reward growth, and we've rolled that out again this year. So it's not done in isolation. It's done in the context where we've brought about changes to how we reward that business or how we operate that business.

然後是關於商業交付的第三部分。從歷史上看，部分是因為我們有這些差距，我們傾向於獎勵保留與增長，獎勵增長，我們今年再次推出。所以它不是孤立地完成的。它是在我們改變了我們獎勵該業務的方式或我們經營該業務的方式的背景下完成的。

It's not fully done. It's a work in progress. But those -- the new incentive scheme that we've rolled out is built on that kind of foundation. So coming back to your question around where we need to see it in terms of geography, U.S. is a key part of it, where we need to execute our turnaround in terms of our operations there. But all geographies contributed to it. We talked about being thoughtful in terms of where we invest to compete, right?

這還沒有完全完成。這是一項正在進行的工作。但是那些 - 我們推出的新激勵計劃是建立在這種基礎上的。因此，回到您關於我們需要在哪裡看到它的地理問題的問題，美國是其中的關鍵部分，我們需要根據我們在那裡的運營來執行我們的轉變。但所有地區都為此做出了貢獻。我們談到了在我們投資競爭的方面要深思熟慮，對吧？

We've called that, that previously, we've made decisions to exit certain markets or certain business lines, China, trauma is one of them. We've called out certain markets in Europe. We've exited lines, and we'll continue to take a look at that, right, so that we are actually driving not just growth, but actually profitable growth, and that's one of the levers into that. So hopefully, that addresses your first question.

我們稱之為，之前，我們已經決定退出某些市場或某些業務線，中國，創傷就是其中之一。我們已經召集了歐洲的某些市場。我們已經退出了生產線，我們將繼續對此進行研究，對吧，這樣我們實際上不僅在推動增長，而且在推動盈利增長，這是實現這一目標的槓桿之一。希望這能解決您的第一個問題。

The second question, in terms of PICO versus RENASYS, both are important drivers. Obviously, there's differences of single-use versus traditional negative therapy. The size for us is fairly similar, at least in our -- in terms of our book of business. And you've seen the numbers, so negative pressure continues to be a driver of growth.

第二個問題，就 PICO 與 RENASYS 而言，兩者都是重要的驅動因素。顯然，一次性使用與傳統的消極療法是有區別的。我們的規模非常相似，至少在我們的業務方面是這樣。你已經看到了這些數字，所以負壓仍然是增長的驅動力。

What I get excited about is, obviously, we see an opportunity to continue to execute well and to continue to take share as we have been. But there's also opportunities now for market expansion across these categories, and that's a super exciting place to be in a category like that. Anything to add, Anne-Francoise?

令我興奮的是，顯然，我們看到了一個繼續良好執行並繼續像我們一樣分享份額的機會。但現在也有機會在這些類別中進行市場擴張，這是一個非常令人興奮的領域。有什麼要補充的嗎，安妮-弗朗索瓦絲？

No, you've covered the PICO, RENASYS. I'd just say because you've referred to the past as well, that portfolio has grown very significantly and double-digit in recent quarters as well. So yes.

不，您已經了解了 PICO、RENASYS。我只想說，因為你也提到了過去，該投資組合在最近幾個季度也有非常顯著的增長和兩位數的增長。所以是的。

One thing -- sorry, I forgot to mention this Kyle. We've made remarks around supply issues across our business. And that actually has impacted our negative pressure business, particularly around our traditional business.

一件事——抱歉，我忘了提到這個 Kyle。我們已經就我們業務的供應問題發表了評論。這實際上影響了我們的負壓業務，尤其是我們的傳統業務。

And here, it's about semiconductor availability, among other components, right? And so we've posted good numbers despite that, but that has been a pacing factor for us in that business. And of course, we see continued disruptions through our supply chains.

在這裡，它與半導體可用性以及其他組件有關，對嗎？因此，儘管如此，我們還是發布了不錯的數字，但這一直是我們在該業務中的一個節奏因素。當然，我們看到我們的供應鏈持續中斷。

Any one category, there's some improvement from one quarter to the next, and we generally see a slightly better picture for 2023 versus '22, but generally still very much challenged. But I did want to highlight that we're operating in a supply-constrained environment in that business. But we've continued to do all this by that. I've lost track of the order of when that went up, so I'll leave it to others to [pause] that.

任何一個類別，從一個季度到下一個季度都有一些改進，我們通常看到 2023 年的情況比 22 年稍微好一些，但總體上仍然面臨很大挑戰。但我確實想強調，我們在該業務的供應受限環境中運營。但我們一直以此為基礎繼續做這一切。我忘記了它上升的順序，所以我會把它留給其他人[暫停]。

Sebastien Jantet from Liberum. Two questions. One around overall kind of what the midterm revenue guidance. Can you give us a sense of the price assumptions that you baked into that revenue guidance across the kind of board?

來自 Liberum 的 Sebastien Jantet。兩個問題。圍繞中期收入指導的整體類型。您能否讓我們了解一下您全面納入收入指導的價格假設？

And then secondly, still on the revenue guidance. You talked about exiting some low-return markets. Are those -- should we think of those as being material in terms of revenues? Or should we think of the gross revenue being higher than the 5%?

其次，仍然是關於收入指導。你談到退出一些低迴報市場。那些 - 我們是否應該將它們視為收入方面的物質？或者我們應該認為總收入高於 5%？

Yes. We expect -- I mean, there's a mix of price and volume. Historically, we've seen price deflation in our business to the tune of 1% or 2% historically. We see slightly better than that here.

是的。我們預計 - 我的意思是，價格和數量混合在一起。從歷史上看，我們的業務價格通縮幅度達到 1% 或 2%。我們看到的比這裡稍微好一點。

Obviously, here in the immediate past, we've been able to pass through some of our price increases. We've called that out, of course, in previous quarters. And that is quite a contrast to how the med tech business typically operates. Going forward, we expect to continue to try and pass through the exceptional price increases that we've seen that honestly is a once-in-a-generation type increases.

顯然，在不久的過去，我們已經能夠通過一些價格上漲。當然，我們已經在前幾個季度提出了這一點。這與醫療技術業務通常的運作方式形成鮮明對比。展望未來，我們希望繼續嘗試並通過我們已經看到的異常價格上漲，老實說這是一代人一次的上漲。

But in the end, in terms of revenue growth, it's going to have to come, as I said, from mix and volume and continued performance relative from a share standpoint. That's ultimately what's going to drive growth. So that's the first point to that.

但最終，就收入增長而言，正如我所說，從股票的角度來看，它必須來自混合和數量以及相對於持續表現。這最終將推動增長。這是第一點。

The second point that I'd like to call out is from a midterm revenue growth perspective, we see again all of the franchises contributing to that growth over the midterm. Orthopaedics is where we need to kind of bring that level of revenue growth in line with markets. So there's an implied share recapture in the numbers that we've guided to.

我想指出的第二點是從中期收入增長的角度來看，我們再次看到所有特許經營權都為中期的增長做出了貢獻。骨科是我們需要使收入增長水平與市場保持一致的領域。因此，在我們指導的數字中有一個隱含的份額重新奪回。

So the numbers that we've said about 5% to 6% for the year and 5-plus percent beyond taking into account all of these factors is the net of all of the things that you see price, volume, share, cash, all of the pack.

因此，我們所說的今年約 5% 至 6% 的數字以及考慮到所有這些因素後的 5% 以上是您看到的價格、數量、份額、現金等所有因素的淨值包的。

(inaudible) from HSBC. I have 2, please. First of all, on CORI, I know you don't like to announce installed base, but I know you closely follow the installed base as well as the KPIs. So some color on that would be great.

（聽不清）來自匯豐銀行。我有 2 個。首先，在 CORI 上，我知道你不喜歡公佈裝機量，但我知道你密切關注裝機量和 KPI。所以上面的一些顏色會很棒。

And second, on the waterfall chart on orthopaedics, that was a powerful chart. Thanks for showing that. I would guess it would look different in the other 2 segments, Sports Medicine and AWM, but how would it look if you were to put it out? And do you see similar risks such as what we've seen in Orthopaedics and VBP in other segments?

其次，骨科的瀑布圖非常強大。感謝您展示這一點。我想它在其他兩個部分（運動醫學和 AWM）中看起來會有所不同，但如果您將其推出，它會是什麼樣子？您是否看到類似的風險，例如我們在其他領域的骨科和 VBP 中看到的風險？

And the -- this one is for Francoise. In light of the increase in leverage and continued interest in M&A. Do you -- how do you see the capital policy should we continue to assume the $250 million to $300 million buyback as well as yes, that line of dividends going forward.

還有——這是給弗朗索瓦絲的。鑑於槓桿的增加和對併購的持續興趣。如果我們繼續假設 2.5 億至 3 億美元的回購以及是的，未來的股息線，您如何看待資本政策？

Okay. Let me address those. On CORI, the last number that we reported is 500 plus. In terms of our installed base, we expect to place more than 300 units in 2023. Most of 2022, we're in a very supply-constrained situation, as I mentioned earlier, that really paced our ability to place CORI, and not that they'll be completely out of the woods from a supply standpoint in 2023, but we expect to place over 300 in '23.

好的。讓我解決這些問題。在 CORI 上，我們報告的最後一個數字是 500 以上。就我們的安裝基礎而言，我們預計到 2023 年將放置 300 多個單元。2022 年的大部分時間，我們處於供應非常受限的情況，正如我之前提到的，這確實加快了我們放置 CORI 的能力，而不是那個從供應的角度來看，他們將在 2023 年完全擺脫困境，但我們預計在 23 年將超過 300 個。

So hopefully, that gives you a bit of a calibration. That's how we think about it. What we look at internally isn't just placements. It's the quality of those placements, where we're putting them, what kind of utilization we get from them and are we advancing our commercial objectives in terms of how we introduce and get CORI adopted into the market.

所以希望這能給你一些校準。我們就是這麼想的。我們在內部關注的不僅僅是展示位置。這是這些展示位置的質量，我們將它們放置在哪裡，我們從中獲得了什麼樣的利用，以及我們是否在如何將 CORI 引入市場並將其引入市場方面推進我們的商業目標。

But you asked about placements. So that's kind of how that breaks out. When we look at a bridge like that into the other franchises, there isn't a dramatic effect like VBP, right, in those other franchises. You asked about whether we think VBP will be a factor in those other franchises. It's difficult to predict kind of what the government in China will do versus one category (inaudible) So don't expect VBP in the near term in those categories. But of course, should it come, we will adapt as we have adapted in Orthopaedics.

但是你問的是展示位置。所以這就是它的爆發方式。當我們看到像其他特許經營權那樣的橋樑時，在其他特許經營權中沒有像 VBP 這樣的戲劇性效果，對吧。你問我們是否認為 VBP 會成為其他特許經營權的一個因素。很難預測中國政府會針對一個類別（聽不清）做什麼，所以不要指望短期內在這些類別中使用 VBP。但是，當然，如果它來了，我們會像我們在骨科中所做的那樣進行調整。

So hopefully, that addresses the second part of your question. And in terms of the factors, as I mentioned, we've been executing well commercially in those other 2 franchises. It doesn't mean we're perfect. It doesn't mean there are opportunities, not opportunities for acceleration. We've called those out right, in the 12-point plan. So continued high level of commercial execution, continued improvements in that will -- of the portfolio, yes, will be a key driver of growth.

希望這能解決您問題的第二部分。正如我所提到的，就這些因素而言，我們在其他兩個特許經營權中的商業表現一直很好。這並不意味著我們是完美的。這並不意味著有機會，沒有加速的機會。我們已經在 12 點計劃中指出了這些問題。因此，持續高水平的商業執行，持續改進——投資組合，是的，將成為增長的關鍵驅動力。

Innovation is a key part of it. It's less dramatic than in Orthopaedics because we've got CORI, which is a new platform that's coming in, new ways of doing things in the industry. But there is innovation in both negative pressure and sorry, in wound and in sports. So whether it's innovation across new categories, biologics is a significant investment area for us in sports, right? That's still early innings in terms of what we can do with regenerative in terms of getting that broadly adopted into the market.

創新是其中的關鍵部分。它不像骨科那麼引人注目，因為我們有 CORI，這是一個即將到來的新平台，是該行業做事的新方法。但是負壓和遺憾，傷口和運動都有創新。因此，無論是跨新類別的創新，生物製品都是我們在體育領域的重要投資領域，對嗎？就可再生能源在市場上的廣泛採用而言，我們可以做些什麼還處於早期階段。

So we're investing in biologics -- continue to invest in biologics and sports. On in wound negative pressures and important investment category for us. And we've got a broad portfolio already, and we're making targeted investments, whether it's in biologics or in skin substitutes in Wound as well. So there are fairly robust pipelines in those areas as well.

所以我們正在投資生物製品——繼續投資生物製品和體育。關於傷口負壓和對我們來說重要的投資類別。我們已經有了廣泛的投資組合，我們正在進行有針對性的投資，無論是生物製劑還是傷口皮膚替代品。因此，這些領域也有相當強大的管道。

So as I mentioned, we look forward to giving you a lot more visibility into those categories as well as Capital Markets Day. It's not that we're trying to be coy here. It's just a lot of detail to go into there as well. So the waterfall looks a bit less dramatic in -- if you were to create that and explore setting out, right?

因此，正如我所提到的，我們期待著讓您對這些類別以及資本市場日有更多的了解。這並不是說我們想在這裡含糊其辭。那裡也有很多細節。所以瀑布看起來有點不那麼引人注目——如果你要創造它並探索出發點，對吧？

And I think your second question was for Anne-Francoise.

我想你的第二個問題是給 Anne-Francoise 的。

Although I will finish on the -- picking up on the dramatic. Actually, if you look at Wound in particular, you will see that the margin, and you can find -- you can see that in our segment reporting in the annual report, the margin on Wound is actually above 2019. So Wound has delivered.

儘管我將完成——繼續戲劇性的內容。實際上，如果你特別看一下 Wound，你會看到利潤率，你會發現——你可以在我們年報的分部報告中看到，Wound 的利潤率實際上高於 2019 年。所以 Wound 已經實現了。

And therefore, I think it's important to understand that the drag on the profitability has been mostly driven by Orthopaedics. Hence, our focus on that. But the other franchises are performing well with Wound, in particular, being back on number of 2019 level and sports being there by ad revenue only given the pressure on the cost of these for sports.

因此，我認為重要的是要了解盈利能力的拖累主要是由骨科推動的。因此，我們專注於此。但其他特許經營權在 Wound 方面表現良好，特別是在考慮到體育成本壓力的情況下，恢復到 2019 年的水平和廣告收入的體育項目。

So now the final question was on buyback and whether we are committed to buyback. We remain committed to buybacks and we did $158 million in 2022. And if you recall, when we reframed our capital allocation policy in December '21, we also sign posted to our leverage our target leverage of 2x to 2.5x. We're currently at the bottom of the range given the challenging macro environment the effects of COVID on our profit recovery and also the working capital buildup that you've seen in 2022.

所以現在最後一個問題是關於回購以及我們是否承諾回購。我們仍然致力於回購，我們在 2022 年回購了 1.58 億美元。如果你還記得，當我們在 2021 年 12 月重新制定我們的資本配置政策時，我們還簽署了我們的槓桿率 2 倍至 2.5 倍的目標槓桿率。鑑於充滿挑戰的宏觀環境、COVID 對我們的利潤恢復的影響以及您在 2022 年看到的營運資本積累，我們目前處於該範圍的底部。

So as a result, we paused the buyback, and we'll continue to keep this under review in '23.

因此，我們暫停了回購，我們將在 23 年繼續對此進行審查。

We've got 2 questions on the phone as well. So let me take 1 in the room and another 1 from the phone.

我們在電話中也有 2 個問題。所以讓我在房間裡拿一張，在電話裡拿另一張。

David Adlington, JPMorgan. Three questions, please. So firstly, just on your midterm revenue guide changing from 4 to 6 to more than 5. Just wondered explicitly how your pricing assumptions have changed from 15 months ago, how -- very explicitly how they change from being silly a headwind to maybe a slight tailwind.

大衛阿德林頓，摩根大通。請教三個問題。所以首先，就你的中期收入指南而言，從 4 到 6 再到超過 5。只是想知道你的定價假設與 15 個月前相比發生了怎樣的變化，非常明確地，它們是如何從愚蠢的逆風變成可能輕微的順風。

Secondly, just in terms of the inventory uplift. Just wondered how that's going to flow through to gross margins through this year and how we should be thinking about gross margin developing through the year? And then thirdly, just in terms of technical one, on the FX margin headwind, 100 basis points. That was 75 basis points back in Q3. I would expect that to get better rather than worse. Just wondering what happened on the FX side.

其次，就庫存提升而言。只是想知道今年這將如何影響毛利率，以及我們應該如何考慮全年毛利率的發展？然後第三，就技術方面而言，外匯保證金逆風，100 個基點。這是第三季度的 75 個基點。我希望情況會變得更好而不是更糟。只是想知道外匯方面發生了什麼。

Do you want to take those, Anne-Francoise?

安妮-弗朗索瓦絲，你想接受嗎？

So on the FX, as you know, we fix 12 months. So there's always a quarter that rolls forward. So that's the main change in terms of the assumption.

因此，如您所知，在 FX 上，我們固定 12 個月。所以總有四分之一向前滾動。所以這是假設方面的主要變化。

In terms of the inventory uplift, the impact on gross margin is the impact of inflation. There's actually to impact its inflation. So if you see that our inventory is now higher cost effectively in your standard cost and your cost of goods as you sell the stock is higher cost. So that puts that what we talk about. And that's why inflation phase through a P&L at a different rate than what you see may happen in the external environment because you've built inventory at a higher cost and that will flow through the P&L over time.

在庫存提升方面，對毛利率的影響是通脹的影響。這實際上會影響它的通貨膨脹。因此，如果您看到我們的庫存現在在您的標準成本中具有更高的成本效益，並且您出售庫存時的商品成本更高。這就是我們談論的內容。這就是為什麼通貨膨脹以不同於您在外部環境中看到的速度通過損益表的原因，因為您以更高的成本建立庫存，並且隨著時間的推移會流經損益表。

I think it also reflects that as we look to reduce inventory, a lot of the efforts is around better supply and demand alignment, is also better discipline in our factories, and it's about better managing the capacity. That's why the network optimization, the productivity, LEAN in operations is super important to mitigate that and to offset the pressure that we would see otherwise in the cost of goods line.

我認為這也反映出，當我們希望減少庫存時，很多努力都是圍繞更好的供需協調，也是我們工廠更好的紀律，以及更好地管理產能。這就是為什麼網絡優化、生產力、精益運營對於減輕這種情況並抵消我們在商品線成本中看到的壓力非常重要。

And the pricing you want me to? So as we said earlier, price in the long term is not the driver of the revenue growth. The driver of the revenue growth is about better commercial execution and the new products, the innovation. In '23, in the short term, there is a price lever as we continue to look for the offset of inflation. It's not the lever in the midterm outlook. However, it's important to say, we won't rest on our laurels.

你要我給的價格？因此，正如我們之前所說，從長遠來看，價格並不是收入增長的驅動力。收入增長的驅動力來自更好的商業執行和新產品、創新。在 23 年，短期內存在價格槓桿，因為我們繼續尋找通貨膨脹的抵消。這不是中期前景的槓桿。然而，重要的是要說，我們不會固步自封。

Part of the 12-point plan as a pricing component it's about strategic pricing. How do we launch new products, how do we make sure our contracts compliances improved, et cetera? But the lever of growth in the midterm is really about gaining market share, launching our products and continuing to capitalize on the growth drivers we've set in place in the last few years.

作為定價組成部分的 12 點計劃的一部分是關於戰略定價的。我們如何推出新產品，我們如何確保我們的合同合規性得到改善，等等？但中期增長的槓桿實際上是關於獲得市場份額、推出我們的產品並繼續利用我們在過去幾年中確立的增長動力。

Maybe just come back on the gross margin point. I mean, in terms of the direction of travel for gross margin in '23, how should we be thinking about that impact in terms of the inventory uplift?

也許只是回到毛利率點。我的意思是，就 23 年毛利率的發展方向而言，我們應該如何考慮庫存提升方面的影響？

So you'll continue to see pressure on the gross margin, which is why we say in particular the network optimization, the off savings flow in '24 and '25 in particular. So that's the element of the plan with the savings deliver later in the period.

所以你會繼續看到毛利率的壓力，這就是為什麼我們特別說網絡優化，特別是 24 和 25 年的關閉儲蓄流量。因此，這就是計劃的要素，並在該期間晚些時候交付儲蓄。

Question on the phone.

電話中的問題。

Our first phone question is from the line of Veronika Dubajova of Citi.

我們的第一個電話問題來自花旗銀行的 Veronika Dubajova。

I hope you can hear me well. I have 3, please. One, can we just start with the 5% to 6% organic sales growth guidance for 2023. And I would love to hear from you what that assumes for sort of procedure volumes or utilization. And Deepak, if you can comment on how the year has started related to that, that would be super helpful.

我希望你能聽清楚我的話。我有 3 個。第一，我們可以從 2023 年 5% 到 6% 的有機銷售增長指導開始嗎？我很想听聽你對程序量或利用率的假設。 Deepak，如果你能評論一下這一年是如何開始的，那將非常有幫助。

Then my second question is on the midterm margin target. You had made some comments about how the improvements would be back-end loaded. Would just love for you to be a bit more specific. If we do assume you're at 17.5% in 2023, how should we think about the remaining 250 basis points being split between 2024 and 2025?

那麼我的第二個問題是關於中期保證金目標。您對如何在後端加載改進發表了一些評論。只是希望你更具體一點。如果我們確實假設您在 2023 年達到 17.5%，那麼我們應該如何考慮在 2024 年和 2025 年之間分配剩餘的 250 個基點？

And maybe just related to that,for Anne-Francoise. What is the assumption that you're making about some of the inflationary headwinds that we've seen on the cost of goods sold that's embedded into that 20%? I'm thinking sourcing like freight, logistics costs and raw materials.

對於 Anne-Francoise，也許與此有關。關於我們在銷售商品成本中看到的一些通貨膨脹逆風嵌入到這 20% 中的假設是什麼？我在考慮採購，比如運費、物流成本和原材料。

Sure, Veronika. So I'll take the first 2 around the 5% to 6% kind of midterm revenue. As I indicated there is -- it is spread across the franchises in terms of what the drivers of that growth are. We've talked about kind of the price and the volume components of it.

當然，維羅妮卡。因此，我將採用前 2 個大約 5% 到 6% 的中期收入。正如我所指出的那樣——就增長的驅動因素而言，它分佈在各個特許經營權中。我們已經討論了它的價格和數量組成部分。

And within Orthopaedics, we do expect procedures to return to normal, honestly, in 2022. We were less able to capitalize on the return to normalcy in terms of procedure volumes for the reasons we've talked about in the past. But we don't see the procedure volume or the market procedure volume being kind of the rate limiting step for us. Or said differently, we expect that more or less procedures are back to normal, and we will be operating within that world.

在骨科領域，老實說，我們確實希望手術能在 2022 年恢復正常。由於我們過去談到的原因，我們無法利用手術量恢復正常的機會。但我們不認為程序量或市場程序量對我們來說是一種限制速度的步驟。或者換句話說，我們希望或多或少的程序恢復正常，我們將在那個世界中運作。

It doesn't mean that hospital systems around the world are challenged for labor shortages or other things, right? And we don't yet know whether there'll be another spike in COVID and how that will impact procedures. But our assumption for 5% to 6% is built on essentially procedure volumes in the world being as they are today and us being able to better participate in that than we have in the recent past. So that's the anchor to the 5% to 6%. But as I mentioned, not just about Orthopaedics. It's going to fuel the growth that's continued outperformance in Wound and Sport. So we don't need to blame at that point.

這並不意味著世界各地的醫院系統都面臨勞動力短缺或其他問題的挑戰，對吧？而且我們還不知道 COVID 是否會再次激增，以及這將如何影響程序。但我們對 5% 到 6% 的假設是建立在當今世界的手術量基本上是這樣的基礎上的，而且我們能夠比過去更好地參與其中。這就是 5% 到 6% 的錨點。但正如我提到的，不僅僅是骨科。它將推動傷口和運動領域持續領先的增長。所以我們不需要在這一點上責怪。

The second, in terms of margin. I wouldn't take a straight line from 17.5% to 20% plus, Veronika. So there will be, I would say -- nor will it be a step change where it's 17.5% and kind of go flat and then all of a sudden magic happens in 2025. So I wouldn't do that, either.

第二，在保證金方面。我不會選擇從 17.5% 到 20% 以上的直線，Veronika。所以我會說 - 也不會是一個階躍變化，它是 17.5% 並且有點持平，然後在 2025 年突然發生奇蹟。所以我也不會那樣做。

So I'm not saying a lot when I say that, although perhaps my second statement also has information contained in that. So I would expect, as I mentioned, I'll go back to kind of where we started the Q&A, which is there are elements of our margin expansion that will come in chunk sequentially from one quarter to the next revenue growth driving margin expansion, you should expect. Of course, there's a seasonality to our business, right, particularly in Orthopaedics.

所以當我這麼說的時候，我並沒有說太多，儘管也許我的第二個聲明中也包含了信息。所以我希望，正如我提到的，我會回到我們開始問答的地方，我們的利潤率擴張的一些因素將從一個季度到下一個收入增長依次出現，推動利潤率擴張，你應該期待。當然，我們的業務有季節性，對吧，尤其是骨科。

So you need to kind of factor that out, right, because typically, our second half of the year is higher margin than the first half of the year. But against that backdrop, you should expect the operating leverage element of margin expansion to happen sequentially.

所以你需要把它考慮在內，對吧，因為通常情況下，我們下半年的利潤率高於上半年。但在這種背景下，您應該期望利潤率擴張的運營槓桿因素會依次發生。

In terms of cost, it's a bit dependent on how quickly execute on the G&A actions and whether it's the market exits or the sales and marketing kind of adjustments that we need to make. So that's a little bit in our hands and symptoms, how to quickly we execute. But that is more of a near to medium term lever that fuel that. Some of it, as I said, in '23, and you'll see, of course, the annualized impact of that in 2024. So that's more near term.

就成本而言，這有點取決於 G&A 行動的執行速度，以及我們需要進行的市場退出或銷售和營銷類調整。所以這是我們手上的一點點和症狀，我們如何快速執行。但這更多是推動這一趨勢的中短期槓桿。正如我所說，其中一些是在 23 年，當然，你會在 2024 年看到它的年化影響。所以這是更近期的。

In terms of the manufacturing and Francois just answered, the network optimization, look, we're sitting on excess capacity in Orthopaedics, right? And so we need to go through steps in order to put that into balance from a network standpoint. And that will take time to fully deliver into a P&L. So that you should expect more in the '25 time frame to fully benefit.

就製造業和 Francois 剛剛回答的網絡優化而言，看，我們正處於骨科產能過剩的狀態，對嗎？因此，我們需要採取一些步驟，以便從網絡的角度實現平衡。這將需要時間才能完全實現損益表。所以你應該期望在 25 年的時間框架內有更多的人充分受益。

But having said that, as I mentioned, there are -- in our -- under the umbrella of rewiring orthopaedics as we look to improve logistics, improve how we do demand planning how we do supply planning and how we schedule things in the factory, you should expect some benefit also in the '23 and '24 timeframe. So most of those benefits will come in the form of improved LIFR and therefore, improved availability into the market and in terms of product ability into the market that will get reflected in the operating leverage part of it, particularly in orthopaedics, right?

但是話雖如此，正如我提到的那樣，在我們希望改善物流，改進我們如何進行需求計劃，我們如何進行供應計劃以及我們如何安排工廠的事情時，在我們的重新佈線骨科的保護傘下，在 23 年和 24 年的時間範圍內，您也應該期待一些好處。因此，這些好處中的大部分將以改進的 LIFR 的形式出現，因此，提高進入市場的可用性以及產品進入市場的能力，這將反映在它的運營槓桿部分，特別是在骨科領域，對吧？

Over time, as we talk about inventory is a topic for us, particularly in Orthopaedics, we started off not in a great place in '21. We further added to it for understandable factors in 2022, but we've got to take steps as we rewire the business to better utilize capital in orthopaedics, right? And that is one of the key elements of our work 12-point plan under the bucket of improved kind of commercial execution.

隨著時間的推移，當我們談論庫存是我們的一個話題時，尤其是在骨科領域，我們在 21 年的起點並不好。我們在 2022 年進一步增加了可以理解的因素，但我們必須採取措施，重新調整業務以更好地利用整形外科的資金，對吧？這是我們工作 12 點計劃的關鍵要素之一，在改進商業執行的範圍內。

So that will pay dividends ultimately in lower inventory lower days of inventory, which is a key metric, we'll come back and report on how we're doing in that in due time.

因此，這最終將在較低的庫存和較低的庫存天數中支付紅利，這是一個關鍵指標，我們將在適當的時候回來報告我們在這方面的表現。

And the final question was on inflation. So clearly, we had to make assumptions. We don't have a crystal ball, as you heard me say some at times. We assume a continued inflation in '23 in part of the discussion we are just having earlier that it continues to flow from the cost we've seen in '22. So higher inflation in '23 and then '24, '25 in assumes and beyond that the inflation more direct. What do I mean by that?

最後一個問題是關於通貨膨脹的。很明顯，我們不得不做出假設。我們沒有水晶球，正如你有時聽到我說的那樣。在我們剛剛進行的部分討論中，我們假設 23 年持續通貨膨脹，它繼續從我們在 22 年看到的成本中流出。因此，23 年和 24 年的通貨膨脹率更高，25 年假定通貨膨脹更直接。那是什麼意思？

I'm not going to give a precise number. But clearly, that would be still higher than what we had experienced in the pre-COVID world, but moderate inflation is our assumption as we put out the guidance.

我不會給出一個準確的數字。但顯然，這仍將高於我們在 COVID 之前的世界所經歷的水平，但溫和的通脹是我們在發布指導時的假設。

Being told, we do have more time for one more question back in the room. I thought Veronika was going to be the last one. One more question in the room.

有人告訴我們，我們確實有更多時間在房間裡再回答一個問題。我以為 Veronika 會是最後一個。房間裡還有一個問題。

Okay. So I think we'll leave it at that. So thank you very much for your interest and attention, and look forward to seeing you back here next quarter. So thank you.

好的。所以我想我們就此打住。非常感謝您的關注和關注，期待下個季度再次見到您。所以謝謝。