Schneider National Inc (SNDR) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Krista, and I'll be your conference operator today.

早安.我叫克里斯塔，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線生。

At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Schneider Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Thank you.

在此，我歡迎大家參加施耐德第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）謝謝。

I will now turn the conference over to Steve Bindas, director of Investor Relations. You may begin your conference.

我現在將會議交給投資者關係總監史蒂夫·賓達斯 (Steve Bindas)。您可以開始您的會議了。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Joining me on the call today are Mark Rourke, President and Chief Executive Officer; Darrell Campbell, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Jim Filter, Executive Vice President and Group President of Transportation Logistics.

謝謝接線員，大家早安。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是總裁兼執行長 Mark Rourke；達雷爾·坎貝爾，執行副總裁兼財務長； Jim Filter，執行副總裁兼運輸物流集團總裁。

Earlier today, the company issued an earnings press release. This release and an investor presentation are available on the Investor Relations section of our website at schneider.com.

今天早些時候，該公司發布了一份收益新聞稿。本新聞稿和投資者簡報可在我們網站 schneider.com 的投資者關係部分取得。

Our call will include remarks about future expectations, forecasts, plans and prospects for Schneider. These constitute forward-looking statements for the purposes of the safe harbor provisions under applicable federal securities laws. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from current expectations. The company urges investors to review the risks and uncertainties discussed in our SEC filings, including, but not limited to, our most recent annual report on Form 10-K, and those risks identified in today's earnings release.

我們的電話會議將包括有關施耐德未來期望、預測、計劃和前景的評論。這些構成了適用聯邦證券法下安全港條款的前瞻性陳述。前瞻性陳述涉及風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與目前預期有重大差異。該公司敦促投資者審查我們在 SEC 文件中討論的風險和不確定性，包括但不限於我們最新的 10-K 表格年度報告，以及今天的收益發布中確定的風險。

All forward-looking statements are made as of the date of this call and Schneider disclaims any duty to update such statements, except as required by law.

所有前瞻性陳述均截至本次電話會議之日作出，施耐德不承擔更新此類陳述的任何責任，除非法律要求。

In addition, pursuant to Regulation G, a reconciliation of any non-GAAP financial measures referenced during today's call can be found in our earnings release and investor presentation, which includes reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures.

此外，根據 G 條例，今天電話會議中引用的任何非 GAAP 財務指標的調整表可以在我們的收益發布和投資者演示中找到，其中包括與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標的調整表。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to our CEO, Mark Rourke.

現在我想將電話轉給我們的執行長馬克洛克 (Mark Rourke)。

Thank you, Steve. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining the Schneider call this morning.

謝謝你，史蒂夫。大家好，感謝您參加今天早上的施耐德電話會議。

Let me start by offering our perspective on the current freight cycle by placing that in context for our most recent quarter results and our long-term strategic priorities.

首先，我將結合我們最近的季度業績和長期策略重點，提出我們對當前貨運週期的看法。

A consistent theme emerged from the discussions we have had with our highly diversified customer base through the back half of 2023. While customers still find themselves in a heightened state of uncertainty heading into 2024, virtually no one believes the current demand and capacity cycle is a new normal, or even that it's durable. The consistent question is, when does it change?

到了2023 年下半年，我們與高度多元化的客戶群進行的討論中出現一個一致的主題。和產能週期是一個持續的週期。一致的問題是，什麼時候會改變？

In align with that theme, at the end of January, Schneider's Internal Truckload Freight market index crested 600 days of being below neutral, while the prior 6 cycles, 3 up and 3 down, have lasted an average of 575 days. Therefore, historically, we are quite long into this cycle invariably macroeconomics and the demand and capacity balanced environment adapts sometimes at a slow and steady pace and sometimes more abruptly due to a catalyst.

與此主題一致，1 月底，施耐德內部卡車貨運市場指數已連續 600 天低於中性水平，而先前的 6 個週期（3 個上漲和 3 個下跌）平均持續了 575 天。因此，從歷史上看，我們進入這個週期的時間很長，宏觀經濟總是如此，需求和產能平衡的環境有時會以緩慢而穩定的速度進行調整，有時則由於催化劑的作用而更加突然。

Irrespective of the market, we are intently focused on company-specific initiatives to return our diversified and scaled operating segments of Truckload, Intermodal and Logistics to their long-term margin targets. Let me recap the important developments in the most recently completed quarter regarding those initiatives.

無論市場如何，我們都專注於公司特定的舉措，以使卡車裝載、多式聯運和物流等多元化和規模化的營運部門恢復到長期利潤目標。讓我回顧一下最近完成的季度中有關這些舉措的重要進展。

First, in Truckload segment, our average Dedicated truck count in the quarter is up 674 units over a year ago, and up 283 units sequentially from the third quarter through a combination of organic and acquisitive growth. Included in those numbers is truck count attrition across dozens of operations particularly in retail support applications due to less overall demand this fourth quarter versus a year ago. Encouragingly, this serves as a build-in growth channel with even modest demand improvement.

首先，在卡車裝載領域，本季我們的平均專用卡車數量比一年前增加了 674 輛，透過有機成長和收購成長，環比第三季增加了 283 輛。這些數字中包括數十個業務部門的卡車數量損耗，特別是在零售支援應用中，因為第四季度的整體需求較去年同期有所減少。令人鼓舞的是，這是一個內建的成長管道，即使需求略有改善。

Revenue per truck per week and Dedicated improved both year-over-year and sequentially, primarily due to asset productivity improvements as a result of those operation-specific truck count adjustments. Our Dedicated value proposition of strong operating performance, combined with a robust new business pipeline, gives us visibility into several hundred units of additional organic growth in 2024. Dedicated's consistent revenue and earnings profile places it at the top of Schneider's strategic growth priorities alongside Intermodal.

每輛卡車每周和專用卡車的收入同比和環比均有所改善，這主要是由於特定運營的卡車數量調整導致資產生產率提高。我們的Dedicated 強勁的營運績效價值主張與強大的新業務管道相結合，使我們能夠預見2024 年數百個單位的額外有機增長。事項的重中之重。

Presently, the growth and performance impact of Dedicated within Truckload is muted due to the challenges of generating returns in the network offering. Over 100% of Truckload's earnings in the quarter were associated with the Dedicated offering.

目前，由於在網路產品中產生回報的挑戰，卡車裝載專用的成長和性能影響不大。 Truckload 本季超過 100% 的營收都與專用產品相關。

Revenue per truck per week in network improved sequentially driven by asset productivity, aided by volumes improving modestly compared to the third quarter. However, at this time, there is not a compelling reason to allocate additional capital in network until freight rate levels are compensable for the service provided.

在資產生產力的推動下，網路中每週每輛卡車的收入連續成長，而銷量與第三季相比略有改善。然而，目前沒有令人信服的理由在網路中分配額外的資本，直到運費水平能夠補償所提供的服務。

Our second strategic imperative is to grow Intermodal earnings, primarily through accelerating over-the-road conversion opportunities. That objective was a driving force behind our new rail partnership alignments with the Union Pacific and the CPKC. We are not gauging success with the UP network conversion off the first 4 quarters of operations. We are playing the long game here. Achieving our desired outcomes in the West requires not only service reliability, which the UP team has urgently and successfully addressed, but also flexibility in the solution commercially.

我們的第二個策略要務是增加多式聯運的收入，主要是透過加速公路轉換機會。這個目標是我們與聯合太平洋鐵路公司和 CPKC 建立新的鐵路合作夥伴關係的推動力。我們並未衡量前 4 個季度營運後 UP 網路轉換是否成功。我們正在這裡打持久戰。要在西方實現我們的預期成果，不僅需要服務可靠性（UP 團隊已緊急且成功地解決了這個問題），還需要商業解決方案的靈活性。

2023 was a year we took a step back in Western Intermodal order volumes. The corresponding mix change is reflected in the 11% lower year-over-year revenue per order, evenly distributed between a change in mix and a change in price. That said, I am pleased that we are working in a highly collaborative manner with the UP to reverse that trend in the 2024 allocation season, and I am confident we're going to be successful.

2023 年，我們的西部聯運訂單量有所下降。相應的組合變化反映在每個訂單收入同比下降 11%，在組合變化和價格變化之間均勻分佈。也就是說，我很高興我們正在與 UP 進行高度合作，以扭轉 2024 年分配季的這一趨勢，我相信我們將會取得成功。

We are also committed to leveraging Schneider's considerable strength in Mexico with the leading intermodal service capability of the CPKC. The CPKC's best-in-class solution is one that proved its value in the quarter by eliminating handoffs and keeping freight in motion, which is the best way to avoid thefts and other disruptions.

我們也致力於利用施耐德在墨西哥的雄厚實力和CPKC領先的多式聯運服務能力。 CPKC 一流的解決方案在本季度透過消除交接和維持貨運運作證明了其價值，這是避免盜竊和其他幹擾的最佳方式。

However, to unlock the full potential of the Intermodal conversion opportunity requires changing long-held market beliefs and experiences on the reliability of Intermodal solutions into and out of Mexico. Again, we're playing the long game here, and we expect by the time we exit 2024, we will be well on our way to realizing that potential.

然而，要充分發揮多式聯運轉換機會的潛力，需要改變長期以來對進出墨西哥多式聯運解決方案可靠性的市場信念和經驗。再說一次，我們正在打一場持久戰，我們預計在 2024 年退出時，我們將很好地實現這一潛力。

Thirdly, the logistics and brokerage market are hyper competitive, and I appreciate how our team has nimbly navigated the environment by leveraging its own freight generation capability and the resilient Power Only model to stay profitable. I am pleased with the advancement of Schneider FreightPower and the growth of our digital connections. Despite market softness, the number of orders that we acquired digitally increased approximately 25% over a year ago. This creates significant leverage for Schneider when the market begins to improve.

第三，物流和經紀市場競爭非常激烈，我很欣賞我們的團隊如何透過利用自己的貨運能力和彈性的純電力模式來靈活地駕馭環境，以保持盈利。我對 Schneider FreightPower 的進步和我們數位連接的發展感到高興。儘管市場疲軟，我們透過數位方式獲得的訂單數量比一年前增加了約 25%。當市場開始好轉時，這將為施耐德創造巨大的影響力。

Before I hand it over to Darrell for his commentary, let me offer some additional insight into fourth quarter results, including context to our guidance coming out of the third quarter earnings call. From a safety performance basis, our operations, safety and professional driver teams have reduced the frequency of auto liability incidents by 19% as compared to the pre-COVID 2019 baseline. That is an important trend line as cutting exposure is the first line of defense against rising settlement costs.

在我將其交給達雷爾發表評論之前，讓我對第四季度業績提供一些額外的見解，包括我們在第三季財報電話會議中得出的指導的背景。從安全績效的角度來看，與 2019 年新冠疫情之前的基準相比，我們的營運、安全和專業駕駛員團隊將汽車責任事故的發生頻率降低了 19%。這是一條重要的趨勢線，因為減少風險敞口是應對結算成本上升的第一道防線。

However, in the quarter, we experienced adverse development, primarily on 2 accident claims from earlier in the year. Those 2 incidents snapped a 16 quarter consecutive period without a significant claim adjustment. On the positive side of ledger, we posted a lower tax rate for the year. The net of the adverse safety developments and lower tax represented a 4% drag on earnings per share from what we contemplated in our prior guidance. Otherwise, the quarter played out nearly as we expected in terms of freight yields, cost performance and lack of equipment disposal gains.

然而，在本季度，我們經歷了不利的發展，主要是今年稍早的 2 起事故索賠。這兩起事件結束了連續 16 個季度沒有重大索賠調整的情況。從積極的一面來看，我們公佈了今年較低的稅率。與我們先前指引中預期的相比，不利的安全發展和較低的稅收對每股收益造成了 4% 的拖累。除此之外，本季在貨運收益、成本效益和設備處置收益缺乏方面的表現幾乎符合我們的預期。

Encouragingly, year-over-year volumes were up in December for both network truck and Intermodal, but overall volumes in the quarter were more tepid than expected, especially around the holiday weeks in November and December.

令人鼓舞的是，12 月份網路卡車和多式聯運的貨運量同比均有所增長，但該季度的整體貨運量比預期更為溫和，尤其是 11 月和 12 月假期週期間。

Let me now turn it over to Darrell for his insights on the most recent quarter and update on our capital allocation expectations and our 2024 guidance.

現在讓我將其轉交給 Darrell，了解他對最近一個季度的見解以及我們的資本配置預期和 2024 年指導的最新情況。

Thank you, Mark, and thanks to each of you for joining us this morning. I'll provide a financial recap of our fourth quarter and full year results and some perspective on our 2024 guidance. You can find summaries on Pages 20 to 25 of our Investor Presentation.

謝謝你，馬克，也謝謝你們每個人今天早上加入我們。我將提供第四季度和全年業績的財務回顧，以及對 2024 年指導的一些看法。您可以在我們的投資者簡報的第 20 至 25 頁上找到摘要。

Our adjusted earnings for the fourth quarter were down $116 million or 78% from prior year. Adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter was $0.16 compared to $0.64 in the prior year. The fourth quarter of 2023 included a loss on the sale of revenue equipment versus a $10 million gain in 2022.

我們在第四季度調整後的收益比去年同期減少了 1.16 億美元，即 78%。第四季調整後每股收益為 0.16 美元，去年同期為 0.64 美元。 2023 年第四季收入設備銷售出現虧損，而 2022 年第四季收益為 1,000 萬美元。

As Mark indicated, compared to our most recent guidance, fourth quarter earnings per share was negatively impacted by $0.04 related to 2 unexpected items. Firstly, adverse development, primarily related to 2 accident claims that Mark mentioned. While higher claim costs were predominantly in Truckload, all segments were impacted.

正如馬克指出的那樣，與我們最近的指導相比，第四季度每股收益受到與 2 個意外項目相關的 0.04 美元的負面影響。首先，不利的發展，主要與馬克提到的兩起事故索賠有關。雖然較高的索賠成本主要集中在卡車裝載領域，但所有領域都受到了影響。

Secondly, the favorability in our income tax rate, which related to increases in tax credits from our investments in new electric trucks and research and development activities in addition to changes in our valuation allowance for losses associated with the sale of our Asia business.

其次，我們所得稅稅率的優惠，這與我們對新電動卡車和研發活動的投資所帶來的稅收抵免的增加以及我們與出售亞洲業務相關的損失的估值準備金的變化有關。

Truckload revenues, excluding fuel surcharge for the fourth quarter of 2023 were slightly above 2022 as the network pricing shortfall was more than offset by revenues from solid organic growth in Dedicated and our recent acquisition of M&M Transport.

2023 年第四季的卡車裝載收入（不包括燃油附加費）略高於 2022 年，因為網路定價的缺口被 Dedicated 的穩健有機成長和我們最近收購的 M&M Transport 帶來的收入所抵消。

Truckload margins and earnings for the fourth quarter were also lower on a year-over-year basis, primarily due to network price, the adverse claims development discussed earlier, a loss on equipment sales and inflationary costs.

第四季的卡車裝載利潤和收益也較去年同期下降，這主要是由於網路價格、前面討論的不利索賠發展、設備銷售損失和通貨膨脹成本造成的。

In our Truckload Network business, 2023 and particularly the second half was challenging, and we believe that rates have largely reset. As we communicated last quarter, our spot exposure was uncharacteristically high as we have sought to avoid entering into contracts at rates that are noncompensible.

在我們的卡車網路業務中，2023 年尤其是下半年充滿挑戰，我們認為費率已大幅重置。正如我們上季度所傳達的那樣，我們的現貨敞口異常高，因為我們試圖避免以無補償的價格簽訂合約。

During the fourth quarter, we continued to rebalance our spot to contract mix and saw a marginal seasonality in pricing. We believe the pricing and volume stabilization seen sequentially in the fourth quarter are an indication of the bottoming of the current freight cycle. We expect to build on this momentum and to improve contract rates during 2024.

在第四季度，我們繼續重新平衡現貨與合約組合，並發現定價有邊際季節性。我們認為，第四季的價格和運量連續穩定表明當前貨運週期已觸底。我們預計將在這一勢頭的基礎上，在 2024 年提高合約率。

As Mark mentioned, we remain very encouraged by the performance of our Dedicated business as we continue to see solid start-up activity in the fourth quarter and new business already awarded in the first quarter of 2024. We're seeing strong organic growth and stellar performance from our recently acquired businesses.

正如Mark 所提到的，我們對專用業務的表現仍然感到非常鼓舞，因為我們繼續看到第四季度的穩健啟動活動以及2024 年第一季已經授予的新業務。的表現我們最近收購的業務的業績。

Dedicated revenue per truck per week for the fourth quarter increased 3% from the prior year and 4% sequentially. We remain disciplined on customer acquisitions, which should continue to support our growth and earnings expectations. As of the end of the year, Dedicated truck count represented over 60% of the Truckload segment total as compared to 57% a year ago. This trend reflects progress on our stated commitment to strategically grow this business organically and through opportunistic acquisitions.

第四季每輛卡車每週的專用收入比去年同期成長 3%，比上一季成長 4%。我們在客戶獲取方面仍然保持嚴格的紀律，這將繼續支持我們的成長和獲利預期。截至今年年底，專用卡車數量佔卡車裝載市場總數的 60% 以上，而一年前為 57%。這一趨勢反映了我們承諾透過機會性收購有機地策略性發展該業務的進展。

Turning to Intermodal. We continue to see our Intermodal business representing a key structural growth opportunity. We are well positioned with our existing container and chassis to grow our business 25% to 30% without the injection of trailing capital.

轉向聯運。我們仍然認為我們的多式聯運業務代表著關鍵的結構性成長機會。我們憑藉現有的貨櫃和底盤做好了充分準備，無需注入後續資金即可將我們的業務增長 25% 至 30%。

For the fourth quarter, Intermodal revenues, excluding fuel surcharge, declined by 17% compared to 2022. As in the Truckload network, significant pricing pressures weighed heavily on results. For the quarter, volumes decreased 1% compared to 2022. However, December marked the first month of year-over-year growth since February.

與 2022 年相比，第四季度多式聯運收入（不包括燃油附加費）下降了 17%。本季銷量較 2022 年下降 1%。

Intermodal earnings were impacted primarily due to price in addition to lower orders year-over-year, and increased empty repositioning and claim costs.

多式聯運獲利受到影響的主要原因是價格、訂單年減以及空車重新定位和索賠成本增加。

Logistics revenues for the fourth quarter of 2023 declined by 20% versus 2022, primarily due to decreased revenue per order as well as lower brokerage volumes. In addition to pricing and volume declines, logistics margins and earnings for the fourth quarter were also impacted by the adverse claims mentioned earlier.

2023 年第四季的物流收入較 2022 年下降了 20%，主要是由於每筆訂單收入減少以及經紀業務量減少。除了價格和銷售下降外，第四季的物流利潤和收益也受到前面提到的不利索賠的影響。

Our Logistics businesses continue to operate profitably through our challenging freight cycle. We saw sequential improvements during the quarter in both net revenue per order and orders per day in part due to seasonality. The asset-light nature of these businesses also continues to support our optimism for continued growth and long-term return on capital.

我們的物流業務在充滿挑戰的貨運週期中繼續獲利。我們看到本季每個訂單的淨收入和每天的訂單量都出現了環比增長，部分原因是季節性因素。這些業務的輕資產性質也持續支持我們對持續成長和長期資本回報的樂觀態度。

Turning to capital allocation for the year. We ended 2023 with net CapEx of $574 million, just below the top end of our most recent guidance of $575 million. During the year, we increased our debt balance, partially related to our acquisition of M&M Transport in August. Our net debt leverage was 0.3x at the end of the year, and we generated $680 million in cash from operations.

轉向今年的資本配置。截至 2023 年，我們的淨資本支出為 5.74 億美元，略低於我們最新指引的上限 5.75 億美元。這一年裡，我們的債務餘額增加，部分原因是我們八月收購了 M&M Transport。截至年底，我們的淨債務槓桿率為 0.3 倍，我們從營運中產生了 6.8 億美元的現金。

Despite current operating conditions, the strength of our balance sheet gives us a conviction to remain confident and committed to our capital allocation strategy, including returning value to our shareholders. As such, we paid $64 million in dividends during 2023, which was 14% above 2022, and we continue to strategically repurchase shares with total activity of $66 million for the year.

儘管目前的經營狀況不佳，但我們的資產負債表實力使我們有信心保持信心並致力於我們的資本配置策略，包括為股東回報價值。因此，我們在 2023 年支付了 6,400 萬美元的股息，比 2022 年增長了 14%，並且我們繼續策略性回購股票，全年活動總額為 6,600 萬美元。

In addition, we recently announced an increase in our quarterly dividend to $0.095 per quarter, a 6% increase from 2023.

此外，我們最近宣布將季度股息提高至每季 0.095 美元，較 2023 年增加 6%。

Moving now to our forward-looking comments. From a macro perspective, while higher inflation and interest rates have pressured consumer demand, inflation has been moderating and the Federal Reserve's indication that interest rates could be lower by the end of 2024 has been a key factor in recent optimism and consumer confidence.

現在轉向我們的前瞻性評論。從宏觀角度來看，雖然通膨和利率上升給消費者需求帶來壓力，但通膨一直在放緩，且聯準會暗示到2024年底利率可能會降低，這是近期樂觀情緒和消費者信心的關鍵因素。

Given the normalization of inventories, we believe shippers will pivot to restocking in 2024 if consumer confidence persists. In addition to the actions we're taking to recover pricing and volume, we continue to maintain discipline in managing costs across our business segments in an inflationary environment. As we do throughout all market conditions, we continue to identify incremental opportunities during 2024. We expect safety costs to be higher than 2023, primarily because of increases in premiums and the full year impact of M&M transport. Despite our ongoing focus on and investments in safety, we're also not immune to increased litigation, inflated settlements and elevated insurance premiums. We expect equipment gains to be approximately $30 million lower than realized in 2023, given the current and expected state of the used equipment market.

鑑於庫存正常化，我們相信，如果消費者信心持續存在，托運人將在 2024 年轉向補充庫存。除了我們正在採取的恢復定價和銷售的行動外，我們還繼續在通膨環境下保持跨業務部門的成本管理紀律。正如我們在所有市場條件下所做的那樣，我們將繼續在 2024 年尋找增量機會。儘管我們持續關注並投資安全，但我們也無法免受訴訟增加、和解金額增加和保費上漲的影響。鑑於二手設備市場的當前和預期狀況，我們預計設備收益將比 2023 年實現的收益低約 3,000 萬美元。

Also, our 2023 adjusted EPS of $1.37 included $0.09 of net equity gains from strategic investments, while our 2024 guidance assumes not. As is our usual practice, as we record equity gains or losses, we will incorporate them into our guidance throughout the year.

此外，我們的 2023 年調整後每股收益為 1.37 美元，其中包括策略性投資帶來的 0.09 美元的淨股權收益，而我們的 2024 年指引則假設不包括在內。按照我們的慣例，當我們記錄股權收益或損失時，我們會將其納入我們全年的指導中。

Taking all these considerations into account, our guided adjusted earnings per share for 2024 is $1.15 to $1.30. This guidance assumes a normalized effective tax rate for 2024 of 24.5%.

考慮到所有這些因素，我們預計 2024 年調整後每股收益為 1.15 美元至 1.30 美元。該指引假設 2024 年標準化有效稅率為 24.5%。

While we believe we're at the bottom of the cycle, both the timing and pace of recovery during 2024 remain uncertain. The continuing effects of lower contract pricing in our network businesses of Truckload and Intermodal and net revenue compression in Logistics are expected to impact our results as we enter 2024, and we expect sequential recovery in the freight market as the year progresses with a heavier weighting toward the second half of 2024.

雖然我們相信我們正處於週期的底部，但 2024 年復甦的時間和速度仍然不確定。進入 2024 年，我們的卡車和多式聯運網絡業務合約定價較低以及物流淨收入壓縮的持續影響預計將影響我們的業績，我們預計貨運市場將隨著今年的進展而逐步復甦，並加大對2024年下半年。

Finally, I'll provide some guidance on our net CapEx plan for full year 2024. During 2023, we made notable progress towards our tractor and trailer Asia fleet targets as OEMs have recovered from their production constraints. We also remain confident in our ability to grow Intermodal volume without the need to add any containers or chassis in 2024.

最後，我將就我們 2024 年全年的淨資本支出計劃提供一些指導。我們也對 2024 年無需增加任何貨櫃或底盤即可增加多式聯運量的能力充滿信心。

We, therefore, do not expect the same level of CapEx investments in 2024. In addition to continued technology investments, we'll invest in growth capital in Dedicated and Intermodal tractors. We also anticipate moderating proceeds from equipment sales as compared to 2023. As a result of these considerations, we have net CapEx to be in the range of $400 million to $450 million for the full year 2024.

因此，我們預計 2024 年的資本支出投資不會達到相同水準。我們也預計，與 2023 年相比，設備銷售收入將放緩。

With that, we'll open up the call for your questions.

至此，我們將開始電話詢問您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of [Bruce Chan] from Stifel.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Stifel 的 [Bruce Chan]。

Darrell, welcome to the call, and it's always great to have another Floridian in the mix.

達雷爾，歡迎致電，有另一位佛羅裡達人加入總是很棒的。

But maybe just a question here on the competitive environment in Intermodal, what are you seeing as far as price discipline or maybe lack thereof from your peers right now? And given that you and others have quite a bit of capacity that's kind of waiting to be unleashed there, how do you expect that competitive environment to trend if and as we see a recovery?

但也許只是關於多式聯運競爭環境的問題，您對價格紀律有何看法，或者您的同行目前是否缺乏價格紀律？鑑於您和其他人有相當多的能力等待釋放，如果我們看到經濟復甦，您預計競爭環境將如何發展？

Yes. So the first place, when we think about the competitive landscape for Intermodal, the largest competitor is Over the Road. And so that is the #1 place that we're looking, where the largest opportunity is.

是的。因此，當我們考慮多式聯運的競爭格局時，首先，最大的競爭對手是 Over the Road。所以這就是我們正在尋找的第一名的地方，那裡有最大的機會。

Across the competitive landscape, there's a lot of containers that are up on stacks. And so there isn't necessarily a strong need to put all of those back into service to be able to continue to operate. So I think there's discipline in terms of what's needed to take containers off the stack. We're not going to take containers off the stack for pricing that's not compensable.

在整個競爭格局中，有許多貨櫃堆積起來。因此，不一定強烈需要將所有這些重新投入使用才能繼續運作。因此，我認為將容器從堆疊中取出所需的內容是有紀律的。我們不會因為無法補償的定價而將容器從堆疊中剔除。

Okay. That's really helpful. And maybe just a quick follow-up to that. When I think about the discussions with customers in Intermodal and maybe in your network business as well, how have those discussions been going? Contract renewals, are they trending positive so far this year? Any signs of the turning point?

好的。這真的很有幫助。也許只是對此的快速跟進。當我想到與多式聯運以及您的網路業務中的客戶進行的討論時，這些討論進行得怎麼樣？今年到目前為止，合約續約的趨勢是否正面？有什麼拐點的跡象嗎？

Yes. Well, it's very early in the season. There's a really wide spectrum out there. So there's not very many that have closed out at this point.

是的。嗯，現在是賽季初期。那裡的範圍非常廣泛。所以目前還沒有多少公司已經關閉。

I'd say there's a couple of themes here right now. Number one that, as Darrell mentioned, that we're staying disciplined. There's just -- there's no room to take a step back further. But also our customers' approach that there's customers that are putting a lot of work and effort into these bids and at the same time, don't expect their bids to hold together through the entire bid cycle.

我想說現在有幾個主題。第一，正如達雷爾所提到的，我們保持紀律。只是——沒有再退一步的空間了。但我們的客戶也認為，有些客戶在這些投標中投入了大量的工作和精力，同時，他們並不期望他們的投標在整個投標週期中保持一致。

Your next question comes from the line of Ravi Shanker from Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Ravi Shanker。

So EPS guidance down year-over-year seems very conservative, even with some of those cost headwinds that you mentioned, kind of the equity gains and the loss on sale, et cetera. Are you guys assuming that current conditions stay stable through the rest of the year? Or kind of -- I know there's tremendous uncertainty on the timing of the inflection, but what exactly has underpinned this guidance?

因此，每股收益指引同比下降似乎非常保守，即使存在您提到的一些成本阻力，例如股權收益和出售損失等。你們是否認為目前的情況在今年剩餘時間內保持穩定？或者說——我知道拐點的時間存在巨大的不確定性，但到底是什麼支撐了這個指導？

Yes. Ravi, it's Mark. I'm hesitant to put a label on the guidance beyond what we've kind of communicated there. As we look at our company-specific initiatives, as we look at where the market is from -- and our expectations on price and productivity, we think we've given a fairly balanced view towards the range as we currently understand and can anticipate. We do believe we are supremely positioned to pivot quickly depending upon where the conditions go, particularly on the upside and our model and our assets will be deployed as well as what we can do with our brokerage business and pivot quickly.

是的。拉維，我是馬克。我很猶豫是否要在該指南上貼上超出我們所傳達的內容的標籤。當我們審視公司特定的舉措、市場的來源以及我們對價格和生產力的期望時，我們認為我們已經對我們目前理解和預期的範圍給出了相當平衡的看法。我們確實相信，我們處於絕對有利的位置，可以根據情況進行快速調整，特別是在上行方向，我們的模型和資產將得到部署，以及我們可以如何處理我們的經紀業務并快速調整。

So -- but in balance, I think we've taking into account, clearly, what we can anticipate at this point. And again, I would, at this juncture, probably avoid putting a label of whether that's conservative or aggressive or anything like that.

所以，但總的來說，我認為我們已經清楚地考慮到了我們目前可以預期的情況。再說一遍，在這個節骨眼上，我可能會避免貼上保守或激進或類似標籤。

Okay. Got it. And maybe a quick follow-up. Can you elaborate a little bit more on the Intermodal issue and the kind of the allocation with UP. what exactly happened there? Kind of why is it going to take 12 months to resolve? What are the surprise, et cetera?

好的。知道了。也許還有一個快速的跟進。您能否詳細說明一下多式聯運問題以及 UP 的分配類型。那裡究竟發生了什麼事？為什麼要花 12 個月才能解決？有什麼驚喜等等？

Yes. Yes. So first of all, we're seeing out there in the broader market, there's opportunity. As I mentioned, the Truckload market, that's the largest opportunity.

是的。是的。首先，我們看到更廣闊的市場存在機會。正如我所提到的，卡車裝載市場是最大的機會。

I think the second opportunity is imports. But as it relates to rail provider out there in the West, that this is our first year with the UP. And I really commend the UP for taking this additional on volume and improving service, but it was a year for learning for both sides. And I think we have an opportunity that we have -- our deals are long term, they're market-based and competitive. But they're based on normal cycles. So there's times when we go through a little bit of abnormal cycles. And we seek to work a little bit differently with our rails during those, seeking a little bit of flexibility. And with this year of learning, we're looking forward to leveraging that for both sides, and using that alignment to move forward.

我認為第二個機會是進口。但由於它與西方的鐵路提供者有關，這是我們與 UP 合作的第一年。我真的很讚揚 UP 增加數量並改善服務，但這對雙方來說都是學習的一年。我認為我們有一個機會——我們的交易是長期的、基於市場的、有競爭力的。但它們是基於正常週期的。所以有時候我們會經歷一些不正常的循環。在此期間，我們尋求對軌道進行一些不同的工作，尋求一點靈活性。透過今年的學習，我們期待雙方都能利用這一點，並利用這種一致性來向前發展。

Your next question comes from the line of Jordan Alliger from Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的 Jordan Alliger。

Just a question, sir, once again, thinking about the guidance for the year. You talked a little bit about second half being better than the first half, but is there a way to think about the shape or the SKU? I mean, as you're seeing it now, is it going to be pretty sharply second half versus first half? And is there a difference between your 3 business segments in terms of how you think about the year progressing in terms of profitability?

先生，我再次提出一個問題，思考今年的指導方針。您談到了下半年比上半年更好，但有沒有辦法考慮形狀或 SKU？我的意思是，正如你現在所看到的，下半場與上半場相比會非常激烈嗎？您對今年獲利進展的看法是否與您的 3 個業務部門之間存在差異？

Jordan, I wouldn't give you any specific shaping comments beyond what we do believe that it will be, continue to improve as we go through the year. Certainly, as you look at our various segments, we think that applies to all 3. Dedicated is a bit more -- I guess, considerably more consistent quarter-to-quarter. And so our network businesses, I believe, have the biggest opportunity as we come out of 2023 and come into the 2024 allocation season, both in truck and Intermodal.

喬丹，我不會給你任何具體的塑造評論，超出我們所相信的，隨著我們在這一年中繼續改進。當然，當你審視我們的各個細分市場時，我們認為這適用於所有3 個細分市場。 。因此，我相信，隨著我們走出 2023 年並進入 2024 年分配季節，我們的網路業務（無論是卡車還是多式聯運）都擁有最大的機會。

So I would characterize the opportunity to be, in all 3 segments, fairly consistent with increasing upside relative to volume and pricing as the year progresses.

因此，我認為，在所有三個細分市場中，隨著時間的推移，相對於銷售和定價的上升空間相當一致。

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Ossenbeck from JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Brian Ossenbeck。

I just want to go back, first, Jim, to your question about some of the customers expecting their bids, maybe not to hold through the cycle. I don't know how to read into that. Does that mean they're expecting an inflection? Does that mean they're trying to take one more bite of the apple and see what happens in the back half of the year? Maybe you can give us some context around that.

吉姆，我首先想回到你的問題，即一些客戶期待他們的出價，也許不會在整個週期中堅持下去。我不知道如何解讀這一點。這是否意味著他們正在期待改變？這是否意味著他們正試圖再咬一口蘋果，看看下半年會發生什麼事？也許你可以給我們一些相關的背景資訊。

Yes. Thanks for the question. So it was the former that customers expect that there's going to be an inflection at some point and that they may have overreached in trying to dig as far as they did. And at some point, during the year that these aren't going to hold.

是的。謝謝你的提問。因此，客戶期望在某個時刻會出現變化，而他們可能在試圖挖掘的過程中做得太過分了。在這一年的某個時候，這些都不會成立。

Yes, I would say broader conversations across the broader spectrum as folks are being, in our view, much more balanced towards the fact that we are long into this cycle.

是的，我想說的是，在更廣泛的範圍內進行更廣泛的對話，因為我們認為，人們對我們長期進入這個週期的事實更加平衡。

I think what Jim is referencing, there are customers that look, based upon their approach, to be more aggressive, and we think those folks, and as we communicate with them, we'll take all of that into account on what type of commitments we will or will not make on behalf of that approach.

我認為吉姆所指的是，有些客戶根據他們的方法，看起來更加積極進取，我們認為這些人，當我們與他們溝通時，我們將在什麼類型的承諾上考慮所有這些我們會或不會代表這種做法。

So -- but I think increasingly, those conversations, as I said in my opening comments, no one believes we're in this condition for the long term. It's just a matter of when. And I think you're seeing more balanced thinking going forward than we would have described as we were coming into this juncture in 2023.

所以，但我越來越認為，正如我在開場白中所說，這些對話沒有人相信我們會長期處於這種狀況。這只是時間問題。我認為，在 2023 年這個時刻，您會看到比我們所描述的更平衡的思維。

All right. And then, Mark, for -- can you just talk about how you're positioning the network truck business into this bid cycle? You mentioned hanging on to more spot, keeping some of the capacity as a market, but it seems like that obviously came with the cost, given the performance was loss-making in the fourth quarter.

好的。然後，馬克，您能談談您如何將網路卡車業務納入此投標週期嗎？您提到要保留更多的位置，保留一些產能作為市場，但考慮到第四季度的業績虧損，這顯然是伴隨著成本的。

So do you feel like that's still in first quarter drag? Is there some permanent capacity that needs to come out? Or you're still just waiting and kind of biding your time until you get the right rate to move this equipment back into the market?

那麼您是否覺得第一季仍處於拖累狀態？是否有一些永久的能力需要發揮？或者您仍在等待並等待時機，直到您獲得合適的價格將該設備重新推回市場？

Yes, Brian, I think what we tried to communicate there is that this is a place presently, we're not looking to add capital to. We also know from our historical practice that the truck network business, both up and down cycle reacts the quickest to change. And so that's really our focus, it's to focus on improving the revenue quality well in advance before we think about adding capital to the network. It does play an important role in support of our customers and the Dedicated start-ups.

是的，布萊恩，我認為我們試圖傳達的是，目前我們不打算在這個地方增加資本。我們也從歷史實踐中知道，卡車網路業務，無論是上行週期還是下行週期，對變化的反應最快。因此，這確實是我們的重點，在我們考慮向網路增加資本之前，提前專注於提高收入品質。它確實在支持我們的客戶和專用新創公司方面發揮著重要作用。

There's a lot of other things that they bring to the party, but we don't need to add additional capital there, focuses on margin restoration, and augmenting that network capital that we put into it with our own trucks, with increasingly leveraging Power Only capability and third-party equipment into that equation.

他們為聚會帶來了很多其他東西，但我們不需要在那裡增加額外的資本，專注於利潤恢復，並增加我們用自己的卡車投入的網絡資本，並越來越多地利用僅電力能力和第三方設備納入該等式。

Your next question comes from the line of Ken Hoexter from Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ken Hoexter。

Mark or -- I guess, if we could just kind of revisit the outlook you and Darrell were talking about with Ravi, the $1.15, $1.30, if you eliminate the $0.10 of gains this year, I guess that gets you -- that's why it's kind of flattish on the outlook.

馬克，或者——我想，如果我們能回顧一下你和達雷爾與拉維談論的前景，1.15 美元、1.30 美元，如果你消除今年0.10 美元的收益，我想這會讓你明白——這就是為什麼它是這樣的前景有點平淡。

But maybe, can you talk about puts and takes within that, your mix on volumes and pricing? It sounds like you've got fleet growth based on the CapEx. So now is it more that inflation is going to offset the fleet growth and yield growth? I'm just trying to get the puts and takes that are within your flattish outlook.

但也許，你能談談其中的看跌期權和賣出期權，以及你對數量和定價的組合嗎？聽起來您的機隊成長是基於資本支出的。那麼現在通膨是否會更抵消機隊成長和收益率成長呢？我只是想根據你平淡的觀點來了解看跌期權和看跌期權。

Yes, I'll start, and I'll turn the mic over to Darrell here momentarily. But what we're looking at on growth -- first of all, our CapEx guidance range of $400 million to $450 million is down fairly considerably from a year ago because of the catch-up with the OEMs and the age of fleet. So we feel really well positioned there, but depreciation is up just because of the inflationary cost associated in the last couple of years with that new equipment.

是的，我要開始了，我會立即將麥克風交給這裡的達雷爾。但我們關注的是成長——首先，由於原始設備製造商的追趕和機隊的老化，我們的資本支出指引範圍為 4 億美元至 4.5 億美元，較一年前大幅下降。因此，我們感覺自己在這方面處於有利地位，但折舊率上升只是因為過去幾年與新設備相關的通貨膨脹成本。

From a growth standpoint, Ken, we're really focused on really 2 areas, and that would be Dedicated where we've had sustained success organically, and we have good visibility into both the first and second quarter of a number of start-ups that give us confidence that we will continue to have momentum through 2024.

從成長的角度來看，肯，我們真正專注於兩個領域，那就是專注於我們在有機方面取得持續成功的領域，並且我們對許多新創企業的第一季和第二季都有很好的了解這讓我們相信我們將在 2024 年繼續保持勢頭。

And then on success of growing our Intermodal business, while we won't look to put additional container and chassis because we have our ratios where we need them to be, we have terrific self-help leverage there with growth without adding trailing capacity, but we would look to add and grow the fleet, the company dray fleet. So we have some tractor growth in there.

然後，在成功發展我們的多式聯運業務時，雖然我們不會考慮放置額外的集裝箱和底盤，因為我們的比率已達到我們需要的水平，但我們在不增加跟踪能力的情況下實現了增長的極好的自助槓桿作用，但是我們希望增加和發展車隊，即公司的貨車車隊。所以我們那裡有一些拖拉機的成長。

We don't really see the need on the trailing equipment, either in Intermodal or truck outside of Dedicated. And so that's all reflected in our forward guidance as it relates to CapEx.

我們並沒有真正看到對牽引設備的需求，無論是在多式聯運還是在專用之外的卡車中。因此，這一切都反映在我們與資本支出相關的前瞻性指引中。

Yes. The only other thing I would add is, in addition to the equity gains that you mentioned, that we're not assuming in the model, there's lower gain on equipment sales of $30 million, which I've mentioned in my comments. And I also talked about safety costs, which we're expecting to increase, primarily due to premium increases in the market, insurance premiums. And then obviously, our tax rate, which is at 22% in 2023 is expected to normalize.

是的。我要補充的唯一一件事是，除了您提到的股權收益之外，我們在模型中沒有假設設備銷售收益較低，為 3000 萬美元，這一點我在評論中提到過。我還談到了安全成本，我們預計安全成本將會增加，這主要是由於市場保費、保險費的增加。顯然，我們的稅率預計將在 2023 年正常化，稅率為 22%。

So all those things are headwinds that slightly impact some of what Mark talked about in terms of growth.

因此，所有這些事情都是不利因素，會對馬克談到的成長方面的一些內容產生輕微影響。

Darrell, maybe just a couple of numbers follow-ups. You mentioned asset loss in the quarter, I don't think you gave a number, was there a number with that? And then Intermodal, did you say what percent of boxes are still stacked? And then if you let me get one more, I'll ask about contract rates, but that's it.

達雷爾，也許只是幾個後續數字。您提到本季的資產損失，我認為您沒有給出數字，有數字嗎？然後聯運，你說還有多少百分比的箱子還堆放著嗎？然後，如果你讓我再買一份，我會詢問合約費率，但僅此而已。

We're going to probably move on after the two. So thanks Ken but you'll get the chance to catch up.

這兩件事之後我們可能會繼續前進。謝謝肯，但你會有機會趕上的。

Yes, no number on the loss. But Jim, if you want to jump in on that?

是的，沒有損失數字。但是吉姆，你想加入進來嗎？

Yes. So there's about 15% of the containers that are on stack.

是的。因此，大約有 15% 的容器處於堆疊狀態。

Your next question comes from the line of John Chappell from Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 John Chappell。

Yes. I hate to be so short-term focused, but it seems like this is going to be one of those years where it's tougher to make a call with visibility until you get closer to see the whites of the eye.

是的。我討厭如此專注於短期，但似乎今年將是那些在你更接近看到白眼之前很難做出可見性決定的年份之一。

So as it relates to 1Q, typically seasonally weaker, but coming off of a kind of a muted peak season, does 1Q in basically all of the different segments look similar to 4Q? Or are there some maybe idiosyncratic reasons why 1Q should be better seasonally as we look at it sequentially?

因此，由於它與第一季相關，通常季節性疲軟，但剛剛擺脫了一種淡旺季的影響，基本上所有不同細分市場的第一季看起來是否與第四季度相似？或者，當我們按順序查看時，是否有一些可能特殊的原因導致第一季應該季節性更好？

Well, thank you. It's a little early in the quarter, obviously, and we've been dealing, at least initially, through the first couple of weeks, we had some adverse weather impacts, particularly, in comparison to the last couple of years.

嗯，謝謝。顯然，現在這個季度有點早，至少在最初幾週，我們一直在應對一些不利的天氣影響，特別是與過去幾年相比。

So we'll keep our, really, thoughts as it relates to the shaping of the year is what we said to this point. We do think it will continue to improve throughout the year and be a bit more robust in the second half, but not offer any more specific guidance yet here in the first quarter.

因此，我們將保留我們的真實想法，因為這與我們目前所說的今年的塑造有關。我們確實認為它將在全年繼續改善，並在下半年更加強勁，但在第一季尚未提供任何更具體的指導。

Okay. Understood. Jim, as it relates to Intermodal margin, obviously, there's a lot of optimism about getting volume back on the different networks. But the margin has obviously taken a pretty significant step back over the last 12 months. Is this strictly a function of the volume will drive the turns will drive productivity will drive margin improvement? Or are there other things that you can actually do internally to better the cost structure, provide more operating leverage, so you can even have some volume improvement -- I'm sorry, some margin improvement before you really get a true volume inflection?

好的。明白了。吉姆，顯然，就多式聯運利潤率而言，人們對恢復不同網路上的交易量持樂觀態度。但在過去 12 個月中，利潤率明顯大幅下降。嚴格來說，這是否是銷售量將推動週轉率、生產力將推動利潤率提高的函數？或者你實際上可以在內部做其他事情來改善成本結構，提供更多的營運槓桿，讓你甚至可以提高銷售量——對不起，在你真正獲得真正的銷售變化之前，可以提高一些利潤率？

Yes. Thanks for the questions. So obviously, during the quarter, there were some additional containers that were put on stack. So there was some additional costs that was absorbed. There's also opportunity just running a more efficient network. So it's not just getting volume, but getting the right volume that reduces our empty repositioning costs as well as our driver productivity. So those are all the focus areas to be able to improve margin.

是的。感謝您的提問。顯然，在本季度，還有一些額外的貨櫃被堆放。因此，一些額外的成本被吸收了。運作更有效率的網路也有機會。因此，不僅僅是獲得銷量，而是獲得正確的銷量，從而降低我們的空車重新定位成本以及駕駛員的生產力。因此，這些都是能夠提高利潤率的重點領域。

Your next question comes from the line of Jack Atkins from Stephens.

您的下一個問題來自史蒂芬斯的傑克·阿特金斯。

Okay. Great. So I guess, I'm going to go back to the guidance for a second because I think what folks are confused about is when you kind of adjust for the taxes and the insurance headwind in the fourth quarter, I mean your kind of exit rate is about $0.60, $0.65, something like that for kind of a full year exit annualized in the fourth quarter, and you're guiding to $1.15 to $1.30.

好的。偉大的。所以我想，我要回到指導上來，因為我認為人們感到困惑的是，當你對第四季度的稅收和保險逆風進行調整時，我的意思是你的退出率約為0.60 美元、0.65 美元，類似於第四季度全年退出的年化金額，您的指導價為1.15 美元至1.30 美元。

So I guess we're just -- what I'm trying to really get my arms around is what specifically are you assuming for a cycle turn in the second half of the year to kind of get to the bottom end of this guidance range? Because it would seem like there's a pretty substantial improvement in underlying business trends there. So kind of help us think through that because we all hope something is going to happen, but it seems like you're expecting it to happen.

所以我想我們只是 - 我真正想要了解的是，您具體假設下半年的周期轉向會達到該指導範圍的底端嗎？因為那裡的基本業務趨勢似乎有了相當大的改善。請幫助我們思考這個問題，因為我們都希望某件事會發生，但你似乎期待它發生。

Well. Thanks for the question, Jack. And I'd like to address that in a couple of fronts. First, we focused in on our company-specific objectives and the annualization of all the good work we've been doing in Dedicated, both acquisitively and organically. And the prospects that we anticipate, many of which we have visibility to from contract closures and start-ups. So we are leaning into key strategic initiatives that allow us to continue to improve our overall business results in that. And our truck business dramatically focuses on Dedicated and I feel really good about where we're positioned there.

出色地。謝謝你的提問，傑克。我想從幾個方面來解決這個問題。首先，我們專注於我們公司的特定目標，以及我們在 Dedicated 中所做的所有良好工作的年度化，無論是收購還是有機的。以及我們預期的前景，其中許多我們可以從合約終止和新創企業中看到。因此，我們正在致力於關鍵的策略舉措，使我們能夠繼續改善我們的整體業務成果。我們的卡車業務非常專注於專用車，我對我們在那裡的定位感到非常滿意。

Secondly, we do believe that based upon our alignment with our customers, what they look to accomplish relative to Intermodal growth and how that fits into what their strategies are, that we are well positioned, and we're leaning in hard to change some of the trajectory we've experienced in that business in 2023 to include the really unique opportunities that are emerging in Mexico. So that's two.

其次，我們確實相信，基於我們與客戶的一致性、他們希望實現的相對於多式聯運增長的目標以及如何適應他們的戰略，我們處於有利位置，並且我們正在努力改變一些2023 年我們在該業務中經歷的軌跡包括墨西哥正在出現的真正獨特的機會。所以這是兩個。

Third, as you would expect, we've been leaning, really, since the middle of 2022 into a cost structure and how we can become more efficient. You saw in our results sequentially, the third and the fourth quarter, that asset productivity improved without demand improving in a very material way. So again, those initiatives that we are leaning into to improve asset turns across everything that we do, across our portfolio is things that we think and expect to improve results.

第三，正如您所料，自 2022 年中期以來，我們實際上一直在關注成本結構以及如何提高效率。您可以從我們第三季和第四季的連續業績中看到，資產生產力有所提高，而需求卻沒有以非常實質的方式改善。再說一次，我們正在致力於改善我們所做的一切、整個投資組合的資產週轉率的那些舉措，是我們認為並期望能夠改善結果的事情。

But clearly, we believe we're also very long into this cycle. Our internal metrics that we look at, which is a combination of company-specific correlation factors and certain outside elements of data that also, over time, have correlated to cycles, where we -- at the end of this month, we'll surpass 600 days, as I mentioned in my opening comments, which is historically very long in the cycle.

但顯然，我們相信這個週期還很長。我們所關注的內部指標是公司特定的相關因素和某些外部數據元素的組合，隨著時間的推移，這些數據也與週期相關，到本月底，我們將超越正如我在開篇評論中提到的，600 天，這在歷史上是一個非常長的週期。

There's some macroeconomic, whether it's rate condition, inflation, consumer confidence, we do believe things will turn to an extent, and we'll get back into some level of restocking that's been stubbornly slow, and capacity continues in a slow and steady pace to exit the marketplace. And that doesn't include a catalyst that, over time, have occurred that can accelerate that.

有一些宏觀經濟因素，無論是利率狀況、通膨還是消費者信心，我們確實相信情況會在一定程度上發生轉變，我們將恢復到一定程度的補貨狀態，而這種程度的補貨一直非常緩慢，產能繼續以緩慢而穩定的速度成長。這還不包括隨著時間的推移而發生的可以加速這一過程的催化劑。

So we're taking those company-specific things. We're taking a slow and steady capacity exit, a restocking again, a slow and steady restocking that will continue, that we believe has the highest probability to improve throughout the year, and that's what we put into that context. That's what we put into that guidance range.

所以我們正在採取那些公司特定的事情。我們正在緩慢而穩定地退出產能，再次補充庫存，並將繼續緩慢而穩定地補充庫存，我們認為全年改善的可能性最大，這就是我們在這種背景下所做的。這就是我們納入指導範圍的內容。

Okay. Okay, Mark. And then I guess maybe for my follow-up, it's really on insurance. I mean, I think almost everyone that's reported so far during this earnings season has had some sort of insurance, either accrual, true-up. It's been a kind of key topic on all these calls.

好的。好吧，馬克。然後我想也許對於我的後續行動來說，這實際上是在保險方面。我的意思是，我認為迄今為止在本財報季報告的幾乎所有公司都購買了某種保險，無論是應計保險還是真實保險。這是所有這些電話會議中的一個關鍵主題。

As you sort of are thinking about this moving forward, could you talk about any sort of inflation that you're expecting in your premium costs in 2024? But -- or would you just expect insurance as a percentage of revenue moving forward to just be a higher number? It just feels like, structurally, the market has just hardened some.

當您正在思考這項進展時，您能談談您預計 2024 年保費成本會出現何種通貨膨脹嗎？但是，或者您只是期望保險佔收入的百分比會更高？從結構上來說，感覺市場剛剛變得更堅挺。

Yes. I think the insurance markets, whether you're talking trucking or really any other portion of the economy, is under pressure from a premium standpoint, and certainly, we expect and we feel that. I think what's really important when we look at Schneider specifically, we had a 16 consecutive quarter streak where we did not have these type of adjustments.

是的。我認為保險市場，無論你談論的是卡車運輸還是經濟的任何其他部分，從保費的角度來看都面臨著壓力，當然，我們預計並且我們感受到了這一點。我認為，當我們具體觀察施耐德時，真正重要的是，我們連續 16 個季度沒有進行此類調整。

So first of all, safety from a training and technology, what we do every day from the core value of the company very seriously, and it's reflected in our results, and you see it in the incident exposure reduction that I shared with you, 19% over the last couple of years.

因此，首先，安全來自於培訓和技術，我們每天所做的事情都非常重視公司的核心價值，這反映在我們的結果中，你可以在我與你分享的事件暴露減少中看到這一點， 19 % 過去幾年。

So all of that is incredibly important, and it's also incredibly important to be realistic about when you have a risk exposure that you have evaluated it correctly and you deal with it in a way that it doesn't escalate.

因此，所有這些都非常重要，當您面臨風險時，請現實地對待它，正確評估它，並以不會升級的方式處理它，這一點也非常重要。

Unfortunately, that 16 consecutive quarter streak snapped on us this year with 2 -- primarily around 2 incidents.

不幸的是，連續 16 個季度的連續記錄在今年以 2 起（主要是 2 起左右）的事件告終。

And so, I don't accept the fact that it's a continuous issue, but they do happen, and this was our time for them to happen.

因此，我不接受這是一個持續存在的問題這一事實，但它們確實發生了，而且現在是我們讓它們發生的時候了。

So Jack, so yes, I think the insurance premium side of that is an external factor that we're going to have to deal with as everybody will but we are leaning in really hard because nothing we do is worth hurting ourselves or others, and it permeates every part of our organization.

所以傑克，是的，我認為保險費方面是一個外部因素，我們必須像每個人一樣處理它，但我們非常努力，因為我們所做的任何事情都不值得傷害自己或他人，並且它滲透到我們組織的每個部分。

Your next question comes from the line of Tom Wadewitz from UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的湯姆·瓦德維茨 (Tom Wadewitz)。

So I wanted to ask a little bit about the Intermodal margin. I think there's been this kind of anticipated help on purchase transportation, it seems like it just hasn't been visible yet in terms of helping on the margin side. Is that something that you think will continue to be elusive? Or is it reasonable to think that if you look at whether it's 1Q or 2Q, that you would see sequential improvement in that Intermodal margin supported by that kind of lagged reduction in purchase transportation?

所以我想問一些關於多式聯運利潤的問題。我認為在購買運輸方面存在這種預期的幫助，但在利潤方面的幫助方面似乎還沒有顯現出來。您認為這將繼續難以捉摸嗎？或者是否可以合理地認為，如果您看看第一季度還是第二季度，您會發現多式聯運利潤率在購買運輸的滯後減少的支持下連續改善？

Yes, thanks, Tom. So yes, we still have our long-term margin targets out there, and we still believe that those are the right target margins for all 3 of our segments, and believe there will be a point that we get to that spot. I couldn't give you a timing of which quarter do we get back to that, but we do anticipate that we'll get back to those long-term margin targets.

是的，謝謝，湯姆。所以，是的，我們仍然有長期利潤率目標，我們仍然相信這些是我們所有三個細分市場的正確目標利潤率，並且相信我們終有一天會達到這個目標。我無法告訴您我們在哪個季度恢復這一目標的時間，但我們確實預計我們將恢復這些長期利潤目標。

Yes, Tom. And I think our approach, particularly on Intermodal, is well positioned to be highly competitive and effective through normal freight and business cycles. I think, obviously, we've been through a significant upside. Now, we've seen the backside of that, and we're working to become more nimble commercially with our customers, how we partner with our rail providers, particularly our newest ones, to deal with those market abnormality, easy for me to say, period.

是的，湯姆。我認為我們的方法，特別是在多式聯運方面，能夠在正常的貨運和商業週期中保持高度競爭力和有效性。我認為，顯然，我們已經經歷了顯著的上升。現在，我們已經看到了這一點的背後，我們正在努力與我們的客戶在商業上變得更加靈活，我們如何與我們的鐵路供應商，特別是我們最新的供應商合作，以應對這些市場異常現象，我很容易說， 時期。

But I think overall, we're positioned well. We would continue to expect improvement there operationally as service improves. And I'm really pleased with how our real partners have leaned into that to give confidence to our customer base. And then I think we have some unique capabilities that we'll continue to pursue. And I think we do have the absolute best solution in and out of Mexico. And we've got a great provider there and really looking forward to exercising that to the degree we can hear through this next allocation season.

但我認為總體而言，我們的定位很好。隨著服務的改善，我們將繼續期望那裡的營運得到改善。我對我們真正的合作夥伴如何依靠這一點來為我們的客戶群帶來信心感到非常高興。然後我認為我們擁有一些我們將繼續追求的獨特能力。我認為我們確實在墨西哥境內外擁有絕對最佳的解決方案。我們在那裡有一個很棒的供應商，並且非常期待在下一個分配季節中我們能夠聽到的程度。

So I would -- I guess, I would read that as optimistic and feeling that we're in a good position and it should continue to improve.

所以我會——我想，我會認為這是樂觀的，感覺我們處於有利位置，並且應該繼續改善。

Right. Okay. Mark, I wanted to ask you a cycle question, too. I -- as I look at these results, and you alluded to network losing some money. Heartland's losing money, other -- it is pressure on the market, right? And I think it's just like you don't recall a cycle downturn where there's been such pronounced pressure on big truckload carriers, big well-run truckload carriers.

正確的。好的。馬克，我也想問你一個循環問題。當我看到這些結果時，你提到網路損失了一些錢。 Heartland 正在賠錢，其他的——這是市場的壓力，對嗎？我認為這就像你不記得周期衰退時大型卡車承運商、運作良好的大型卡車承運商面臨如此明顯的壓力。

Do you think that results in, at some point, maybe a bigger capacity adjustment? I'm just trying to figure out how do you -- what's the result of this? Because it does seem like kind of a tougher downturn than we've seen in prior cycles.

您認為這是否會在某個時候導致更大的容量調整？我只是想弄清楚你是怎麼做的——結果是什麼？因為這看起來確實是比我們在之前的周期中看到的更嚴重的衰退。

Yes. I think we've all been talking about the stubborn exit of capacity. I think, certainly, it's occurring, would we have expected maybe a bigger exit at a faster rate. I think all -- many of us in the industry would have, based upon history, got there. But there's different dynamic and market forces at play. I think that the compression, perhaps what you're pushing at, Tom, is, as we went through the pandemic-driven upside, we also had some inflationary factors play there, particularly in the equipment space, the driver wages space. And those are a bit more difficult, at least in the short term, to get through your results, particularly on the back side of a correction. And so -- and perhaps that is a factor that's a bit more pronounced than may have happened in some prior periods like 2009 and some of the other more pronounced downturn.

是的。我想我們都在談論產能的頑固退出。我認為，當然，這種情況正在發生，我們是否會期望以更快的速度進行更大的退出。我認為，根據歷史，我們這個行業的許多人都會到達那裡。但有不同的動力和市場力量在發揮作用。我認為，湯姆，也許你所推動的壓縮是，當我們經歷大流行驅動的上漲時，我們也有一些通貨膨脹因素在那裡發揮作用，特別是在設備領域、司機工資領域。至少在短期內，要獲得結果會有點困難，特別是在修正的背面。因此，也許這個因素比 2009 年等之前的一些時期以及其他一些更明顯的經濟衰退時期可能發生的情況更為明顯。

So I think we've got a handle on those costs. I think we got an approach to that. But certainly, we don't think the rates are compensable for the service provided, the cost to serve.

所以我認為我們已經控制住了這些成本。我認為我們已經找到了解決這個問題的方法。但當然，我們認為這些費率不能補償所提供的服務和服務成本。

Now you throw the insurance question we had here just prior that there needs to be, and we're confident that there will be a market correction on the pricing side to reflect that.

現在你提出了我們先前提出的保險問題，我們相信定價方面將會出現市場調整來反映這一點。

I mean, I guess we'll see what the result is, but do you agree with the premise that this is maybe a tougher downturn than we've seen?

我的意思是，我想我們會看到結果是什麼，但是您是否同意這樣的前提：這可能是比我們所見過的更嚴重的衰退？

Memory gets harder as a bit of -- my 36th year in the industry, I would say, this has been, at least from my experience, the most challenging on both sides, well it was extremely robust and what those implications were. And now as we're sitting here on the backside of that correction, I would put this as -- if not the it's got to be in the top 2.

記憶變得有點困難——我在這個行業已經第36 年了，我想說，至少從我的經驗來看，這對雙方來說都是最具挑戰性的，嗯，它非常強大，以及這些影響是什麼。現在，當我們正處於該修正的背面時，我會將其視為 - 如果不是的話，它也必須排在前兩名。

Your next question comes from the line of Bascome Majors from Susquehanna International Group.

您的下一個問題來自薩斯奎哈納國際集團的 Bascome Majors 系列。

Following up on Tom -- following up on Tom's question about the network margin, would network have operated at a loss without the claims charges that you dealt with in the quarter? And can you give us any historical context on where you are in the gap between what Dedicated is earning now versus what network is and how that's looked at other cycle troughs? Just to understand how different this environment is today.

跟進湯姆 - 跟進湯姆關於網路利潤率的問題，如果沒有您在本季度處理的索賠費用，網路是否會虧損？您能否向我們介紹一下 Dedicated 現在的收入與網路的收入之間的差距，以及如何看待其他週期低谷的情況？只是為了了解今天的環境有多麼不同。

And just to extend that, how necessary is pricing above inflation in Intermodal, and one way, to get to your second half objectives?

簡單來說，多式聯運的定價是否有必要高於通貨膨脹，以及實現下半年目標的方式？

Thanks, Bascome. Let me try to unpack that. Yes, so the safety implication was pronounced -- much more pronounced in truck in the quarter and certainly reflective in our network results and would have been certainly in the black without that. So a clear indicator.

謝謝，巴斯科姆。讓我試著解開它。是的，所以安全影響是顯而易見的——本季度卡車的安全影響更加明顯，並且肯定反映在我們的網路業績中，如果沒有這一點，我們肯定會實現盈利。所以有一個明確的指標。

This is from a pricing standpoint. First of all, Dedicated, we feel is positioned very, very well. Obviously, when you're in a growth spurt, you have some additional friction costs around startups and recruiting and all the things that naturally come with leaning into that portion of the business. But even with that, in addition to our acquisitions, the gap is material and because of the volatility associated with the pricing mechanism, that plays out in our network business.

這是從定價的角度來看的。首先，Dedicated，我們覺得定位非常非常好。顯然，當你處於井噴式成長時，你會在新創公司和招募以及傾向於這部分業務時自然產生的所有事情上產生一些額外的摩擦成本。但即便如此，除了我們的收購之外，差距仍然很大，而且由於與定價機制相關的波動性，這也會影響我們的網路業務。

So we do need to lean in the price. We do need to improve our book of business. And that's why we're not going to be adding capital. That's priority one, it's simply to get after margin restoration. And that's a combination of productivity, cost and rate recovery.

所以我們確實需要在價格上傾斜。我們確實需要改進我們的業務。這就是為什麼我們不打算增加資本。這是第一要務，只是為了恢復利潤。這是生產力、成本和回收率的結合。

Your next question comes from the line of Uday Khanapurkar from TD Cowen.

您的下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Uday Khanapurkar。

This is Uday on for Jason Seidl. Maybe just a longer one -- longer term one on Intermodal. I appreciate that this is a fairly distinct possibility at this stage, but with China tariffs sort of creeping back into the conversation, how do you evaluate the volume and pricing dynamics in Intermodal if those play out? Maybe it would be helpful if you could remind us how the Intermodal business adapted to the imposition of tariffs in 2019? Did it have any predictable mix implications? Anything on the cross-border? Any color there would be appreciated.

這是賈森·塞德爾的烏代。也許只是一個更長的——多式聯運上的長期的。我意識到，在現階段這是一種相當明顯的可能性，但隨著中國關稅重新回到討論中，如果這些情況發生，您如何評估多式聯運的數量和定價動態？如果您能提醒我們多式聯運業務如何適應 2019 年關稅的徵收，或許會有幫助？它有任何可預測的混合影響嗎？有跨境的嗎？任何顏色都會受到讚賞。

Yes. Thank you for the question. And certainly, of all of our service offerings, the one that leans in at most heavily towards imports and the effect of imports is our Intermodal business. And the West Coast is a place that we have not maintained a share that we would have typically expected.

是的。謝謝你的提問。當然，在我們所有的服務產品中，最依賴進口以及進口影響的就是我們的多式聯運業務。西海岸是我們沒有保持我們通常預期的份額的地方。

And so import recovery is an important component, particularly in the western side of our network. We also have some real positives on some of the response to those geopolitical, which is the near-shoring activity that's going on, the investment taking place in Mexico that, I think, is the biggest winner here. Some of those investments take time to mature and to take hold.

因此，進口復甦是一個重要組成部分，特別是在我們網路的西部地區。我們對地緣政治的一些反應也有一些真正的積極因素，即正在進行的近岸活動，在墨西哥進行的投資，我認為這是這裡最大的贏家。其中一些投資需要時間才能成熟並紮根。

But clearly, the biggest opportunity is how much freight moves over the road on the long length of hauls that make most sense economically, emission-wise, in and out of Mexico, so while there might be some, over time, geopolitical pressures in another part of the network, there's also some winners and other parts that we want to make sure we're well positioned to take advantage of.

但顯然，最大的機會是在長途運輸中通過公路運輸多少貨物，這在進出墨西哥的經濟、排放方面最有意義，因此，儘管隨著時間的推移，另一個國家可能會面臨一些地緣政治壓力。作為網路的一部分，還有一些贏家和其他部分，我們希望確保我們能夠充分利用它們。

And we have seen some shifting obviously from port activity to Eastern ports and Southern ports in addition to Mexico. So which are more generally attractive to truck as opposed to Intermodal over time.

我們看到，除了墨西哥之外，一些活動明顯從港口活動轉移到東部港口和南部港口。因此，隨著時間的推移，與多式聯運相比，卡車通常更具吸引力。

But Jim, maybe just other comments as 2019?

但是吉姆，也許只是 2019 年的其他評論？

Yes, if I go back to 2019, it did cause a little bit of a short-term blip, really as some of our customers were finding other sources of different products. But when they came back, it created a surge in demand. So we saw both sides of those. And so you had that type of impact right away.

是的，如果我回到 2019 年，它確實造成了一些短期的波動，因為我們的一些客戶正在尋找不同產品的其他來源。但當他們回來時，需求激增。所以我們看到了兩面。所以你立刻就產生了這種影響。

Most of our customers have been -- they took the lessons learned. They've been derisking their supply chain using other Asian countries, other low-cost countries, that's why Mexico is so strategic for us because more and more of our customers are looking at Mexico as their other low-cost option, and we have a really great service to help them.

我們的大多數客戶都吸取了教訓。他們一直在利用其他亞洲國家、其他低成本國家來降低供應鏈的風險，這就是為什麼墨西哥對我們來說如此具有戰略意義，因為越來越多的客戶將墨西哥視為他們的另一個低成本選擇，而我們有幫助他們的服務真的很棒。

Your next question comes from the line of Chris Wetherbee from Citigroup.

您的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Chris Wetherbee。

I wanted to ask on the Dedicated side. So we've heard a little bit of, I think, competitive dynamics on the Dedicated side picking up. I guess, as you'd expect where we kind of are in the overall cycle here. So I just want to kind of touch base and get a sense of what the health that you think of that market? Obviously, the metrics you, guys, post is whether it'd be revenue per truck per week or the addition of trucks looks reasonably good in that context. But I wanted to get a sense, as you think about the guidance and how the outlook for 2024 looks, where that fits in? Is that market stabilized? Is it sort of doing what you'd expect it to do at this point in the cycle?

我想問專用方面。因此，我認為我們聽說 Dedicated 方面的競爭動態有所增強。我想，正如您所期望的那樣，我們在整個週期中所處的位置。所以我只是想了解一下您認為該市場的健康狀況如何？顯然，你們發布的指標是每輛卡車每週的收入或增加的卡車在這種情況下看起來相當不錯。但我想了解一下，當您考慮指導意見以及 2024 年的前景時，它適合什麼地方？市場穩定了嗎？它是否正在做您期望它在周期的此時所做的事情？

Yes, Chris. Thank you for the question. As it relates to Dedicated, it generally has a little longer sales cycle. And so the work that you do in the year prior, you've got a lot of work under your belt. And so you generally have a little better visibility to at least 6 months out, where you expect both your retention levels of your current business, but also as we have been leaning into the extension of our reach here.

是的，克里斯。謝謝你的提問。因為它與Dedicated相關，所以它的銷售週期通常會長一些。因此，從你前一年所做的工作來看，你已經做了很多工作。因此，您通常對至少 6 個月的時間有更好的了解，您預計當前業務的保留水平，而且我們一直致力於擴大我們的業務範圍。

And so that's part and parcel of what you see into our guidance. We would say the market and our pipeline is still very, very robust. We've successfully are in the process, not only new business in the fourth quarter, but we have scheduled starts that we have visibility to both in the first and second quarter. Not as visible yet for decision-making out into the third and fourth quarter, but based upon that pipeline and our recent experience and success gives us confidence that, that's going to be another really good story for us through calendar year 2024.

因此，這是您在我們的指導中所看到的重要組成部分。我們會說市場和我們的管道仍然非常非常強勁。我們已經成功地進入了這個過程，不僅是第四季度的新業務，而且我們還計劃在第一季和第二季啟動我們可以看到的業務。對於第三和第四季的決策來說，還不太明顯，但基於該管道以及我們最近的經驗和成功，我們有信心，這將是我們到 2024 年的另一個真正的好故事。

Okay. Okay. That's helpful. And then just maybe one quick one on Intermodal. Just thinking a little bit more big picture. I know you have the 2030 goals of doubling the business there.

好的。好的。這很有幫助。然後可能只是多式聯運上的一個快速的。只是想得更宏觀一些。我知道你們的目標是到 2030 年將業務翻倍。

I guess, what are the sort of break points we should be thinking about in terms of profitability or maybe it's asset utilization where you start to sort of turn on the growth again? Just kind of curious how you think about what you need to see from a hurdle perspective to get more constructive on investment in that business?

我想，在獲利能力方面我們應該考慮什麼樣的斷點，或者也許是資產利用率，你開始再次開啟成長？只是有點好奇，您如何從障礙的角度思考您需要看到什麼，以便對該業務的投資更具建設性？

Yes. We need to be able to see that we're getting back to the long-term margin targets. And as we get back to those levels and we see the level of quality demand, that's when we'll be turning that back on and increasing capital.

是的。我們需要看到我們正在回到長期利潤目標。當我們回到這些水平並看到品質需求水準時，我們將重新啟動並增加資本。

Yes, we have just such productivity opportunities in front of us, not even having to get back to pretty high as it relates to [box] turns.

是的，我們面前就有這樣的生產力機會，甚至不必回到與[盒子]轉彎相關的相當高的水平。

I think the good news is we're seeing our customer base, for the most part, be very efficient with the container. We're getting back to a more normalized turn focus with our customers. And this past year, we did some investments in the chassis front to make sure that we could take advantage of that. So our ratios are where they need to be there, Chris.

我認為好消息是我們看到我們的客戶群大部分都非常有效率地使用容器。我們正在恢復以更規範的方式關注客戶。去年，我們在底盤前端進行了一些投資，以確保我們能夠利用這一點。所以我們的比率就在他們需要的地方，克里斯。

And so we like the incremental growth margins that come with not having to invest in additional capital and cost to bring things on to get after improved volumes. So -- so it's not that we're -- we don't want to invest, and so we think we have invested now, it's time to yield the benefit of those investments.

因此，我們喜歡增量成長利潤，這種成長利潤無需投資額外的資本和成本來實現銷售成長。所以，並不是我們不想投資，所以我們認為我們現在已經投資了，是時候從這些投資中獲益了。

We have no further questions in our queue at this time. I will turn the conference over to Mark Rourke for closing remarks.

目前我們的隊列中沒有其他問題。我將把會議交給馬克洛克 (Mark Rourke) 致閉幕詞。

Thank you, operator, and I really appreciate everybody's attention this morning.

謝謝接線員，我非常感謝大家今天早上的關注。

We had opportunity to talk about our commitment to advance our strategic growth drivers of Dedicated truck, our confidence around Intermodal conversion and the aggregation of our capacity and demand through our FreightPower platform in logistics.

我們有機會談論我們對推進專用卡車戰略成長驅動力的承諾、我們對多式聯運轉換的信心以及透過我們的 FreightPower 物流平台聚合我們的能力和需求。

So we do see, at least as we get in here to 2024 early, that we're in a bit of a transition year, with capacity and balancing improving as the year progresses. And as we've talked about throughout this call, a bit more heavily weighted to the second half.

因此，我們確實看到，至少在我們提前到 2024 年時，我們正處於一個過渡年，隨著時間的推移，容量和平衡性都會得到改善。正如我們在整個電話會議中所討論的那樣，下半場的權重更大一些。

So thank you for your attention, and we look forward to engaging here as we get into conference season.

感謝您的關注，我們期待在會議季節到來之際參與其中。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。